PREDICTION OF ROAD DETERIORATION FOR PAVEMENT MANAGEMENT AND POLICY EVALUATION.

W.O.O. PATERSON, Ph.D., MIPENZ, Sr. Highway Engineer, World Bank

ABSTRACT

A crucial element in pavement management and in the economic evaluation of design and
maintenance policies ia the need to predict the manner and rate at which roads witt deteriorate
in the future under different maintenance options. The paper summarizes a fundamentaLLy new aet
of deterioration prediction modeLs deveLoped by the WorLd Bank for appLication in countries with
non-freezing climates. The modeLs~ deveLoped from a comprehensive , factoriatLy-deaigned data
base of in-service highways in BraziL and other sources, have been designed to be transferabLe,
and are incorporated in the new version of the Highway Design and Maintenance ModeL (H~ III)
for the economic evaLuation of coats and benefits over a highway network. The individuaL
prediction reLationships are aLso suitabLe for other appLications such aa pavement management
ayatema. The infLuence of pavement, traffic and environmentaL factors on the initiation and
progression of cracking, raveLLing, and pothoLing, and the progression of rutdepth and roughness
are iLLustrated from the modeLs. Guidance on adaptation and evaLuation of the modeLs for other
regions is given.

PAVEMENT MANAGEMENT AND variety of different maintenance strategies for

POLICY EVALUATION
1. Reliable forecasts of maintenance
needs for each link of a road network are a
primary requirement of a pavement management
system (PMS). These forecasts depend on the
prediction of the rate of road deterioration
under prevailing conditions, and on selection
of the criteria for maintenance intervention.
2. For the system to be truly efficient,
these maintenance intervention criteria (which
reflect the policy of a highway agency) need to
be based on economic and engineering
considerations, minimizing the total
transportation costs borne by both the highway
agency and the road users, over the life-cycle
of the road.
3. The selection of such criteria
requires a policy evaluation that would analyse
road deterioration and user costs under a
the who 1e highway network, and se 1ect that
combination of strategies (one per
representative road category of traffic class,
pavement type and strength, and climate) which
yielded the least total transportation cost.
When the budget available is less than required
for this optimum condition, a different
combination of strategies (and hence
intervention criteria) would be selected to
minimize the total costs under constraint.
4. The major road policy evaluation
model of the World Bank, the Highway Design and
Maintenance model (HOM) was developed to
determine optimum and constrained road
investment strategies, and is used to determine
appropriate intervention criteria. The model
has been completely revised recently and the
new version, HOM III, is fully described in
Watanatada et al (1986). This paper SlJllmari zes
the new road deterioration relationships which
were founded after extensive analyses on a firm
empirical base and within a mechanistic
framework, for application in many countries.

ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS: Grateful acknowledgement is given of the guidance and support of Drs. Clell
Harral and Per E. Fossberg of the Transportation Department of the World Bank under whose
auspicies the study was made, with assistance from the United Nations Development Program. The
views are the author'sand not necessarily those of the World Bank or UNDP.

216 VOLUME 13, PART 4, PAVEMENTS AND CONSTRUCTION

 PATERSON- PREDICTION OF ROAD DETERIORATION
5. The relationships have a valuable
application in a PMS also. Commonly a PMS will
use limited local empirical data to extrapolate
condition trends observed from previous surveys
by simple correlation. Such data is usually
inadequate to establish the relative influence
of different factors so the resulting
relationships are not applicable to general
issues. However when relationships are
developed from a factorially-designed sample of
in-service highway sections, including major
factors of interest and engineering concepts in
the analysis, it is possible to approach the
ideal of 'universal' model forms which can be
readily adjusted to local conditions by
calibration. This study is a major example in
the latter category.
ANALYTICAL BACKGROUND
6. The relationships have been derived
primarily from a statistical analysis of road
condition trends observed over a 5 year period
on in-service highways in the recent
Brazil-UNDP road costs study (GEIPOT 1982).
It included 116 sections of flexible pavements
covering a wide range of pavement types,
maintenance status, strengths, traffic loadings
and age selected according to a composite
factorial experimental design. This provided
380 combinations of traffic, strengths and
maintenance, with a total of 3,200 observations
of condition and over half a million
measurements. Full details of the data and
analytical development are given in Paterson
(1986); earlier analyses on a smaller data set
were reported by Queiroz (Vol. 7 ~ GEIPOT
1982).
7. Mechanistic principles were used to
guide the general form and combination of
parameters in the relationships, so that the
models would be transferable, and universal at
least in form, yet the coefficients were all
determined statistically. Traffic loading,
aging and climatic effects were all evaluated
concurrently. Stochastic variations were
quantified and, in the case of cracking and
ravelling, incorporated in probabilistic
relationships.
8. Incremental model forms, in which the
short-term change of condition is predicted as
a function of the current condition and other
factors, are most suitable for pavement
management. Analysis is usually iterative year
by year, so the models are derivatives of time
with traffic loading factors represented as
annual flows.
IRI (International Roughness Index) is a standard index computed from the
absolute longitudinal profile of the road surface and also serves as a
calibration standard for response-type roughness meters: its definition
and guidelines for its use are given in Sayers, Gillespie and Paterson
(1986).
13th ARAB/5th REAAA, 1986
DISTRESS PREDICTION
ROUGHNESS
9. Road roughness, which affects both
riding quality and user costs and hence is the
ultimate form of distress, is complex both in
its physical composition and in the mechanism
of its development. The initial roughness is
related to the construction method and ranges
from 1 m/km IRI 1/ for high quality paver-laid
asphalt to 4 m/~ IRI for poor-quality, grader-
or labour-intensive construction. Economic
intervention levels range from 2.5 m/km IRI for
traffic volumes greater than about 3000 veh/day
to 5 m/km IRI for volumes less than about 500
veh/day, depending on price relativities (see
Bhandari, Fossberg and Harral 1984). Free-flow
vehicle speeds are only influenced by high
levels of roughness; as a rule of thumb, the
product of speed in km/h and roughness in m/km
IRI rarely exceeds about 700 for cars or 550
for heavy trucks (see Paterson and Watanatada
1985). For example, car speeds usually do not
exceed 85 km/h on roughness above 8 m/km IRI.
10. The rate of roughness progression
ranges from about 1 percent to 10 percent
annually depending on traffic loading, pavement
strengths and en vi ronmenta l effects (Paterson
1986). Previously the causes have been
related directly to traffic loading and
pavement strength based largely on the
accelerated controlled-load results of the
AASHO Road Test. However, some correlation
studies of field data have been unable to
relate roughness to traffic loading (for
example, Potter (1982) in Australia; a result
that may be due to either the collinearity
between loading and strength that comes from
engineering design or to dominant environmental
effects. The Brazil data base covers such a
wide a range of pavement ages, strength and
traffic loadings, as shown in Fig. 1, that it
is the most valuable source for quantifying the
interacting effects of traffic, age and
strength parameters under mixed traffic and
real time.
11. Analysis of the data with a wide
variety of forms showed that a change in
roughness results from a combination of
mechanisms, including:
(a) structural causes (traffic loading and
pavement strength)
(b) surface defects (cracking, patching,
potholes); and
(c) environmental factors
(non-traffic-related).
217
 PATERSON- PREDICTION OF ROAD DETERIORATION
/ 13.
15 20
Pavement Age (years)
Fig. 1 - Observed roughness trends of a
uniform sample of all paved road sect i ons
during the period 1977 to 1981 of the Brazil
road deterioration study
The relationship estimated by non-linear
regression was:
!J{t = 648 (SNC + 1)-7 .62 llNE4 + 0.120 tFDS
+ 0.0061 tCRX + 0.0112 6PAT +
0.154 t.VPOT + 0.0248 Rt t.t.
where
!J{t increase in roughness over time
period t.t, m/km IR I;
roughness at timet, m/km IRI;
tRDS increase in rut depth standard
deviation of both wheelpaths, mm;
tCRX increase in indexed area of
cracking, %;
t.PAT increase in area of surface
patching, %;
t.VPOT increase in volume of open
potholes, m3/lane km;
incremental time period of
analysis, years;
llNE4 incremental number of equivalent
axle loads in period t.t, million
ESA/1 ane; and
SNC corrected structural number of
pavement strength.
R2 = 0.56 Standard error= 0.53 m/km IRI
n = 361 (subsection x 4-yr.
periods)
12. The model estimates the change in
roughness in a period from the roughness at the
218
beginning of the period, the equivalent axle
loading (ESA) and the changes in rut depth
variation, cracking, patching and potholing.
Its component form shows that roughness is
largely explicable from individual modes of
distress, wh i ch makes it highly transferable
and that maintenance effects are readily
simulated . Alternative aggregate forms using
traffic and strength alone (like the AASHTO
model) had very poor predictive ability.
Examples of long-term roughness progression
predictions are shown in Fig. 2 for pavements
under good maintenance, that is without
significant cracking, patching or potholes.
Most of the structural deformation,
represented in the first two terms of eq. ( 1) ,
is explained by the longitudinal variation in
rut depth, itself a function of traffic and
pavement strength (see paras.33-37) and having
an evident surface geometry relationship to
roughness. A feature of the data however,
which is probably indicative of all engineered
pavements, was that less than one-half of the
roughness change observed on most of the
sections (i.e 70 percent) was attributable to
25
structural deformation, and in many the amount
was as small as one-tenth.
14. This has two important implications.
First, it indicates that pavements
structurally-designed for their traffic
loadings suffer only very small amounts of
roughness progression from structural causes
and that roughness in these cases is largely a
function of surface defects and environmental
factors. Second, it implies that rut depth,
particularly its variation, is a primary
indicator of deformation-related roughness
change and hence provides a basis for
interpreting accelerated loading studies and
theoretical studies.
(1)
Roughness (m/km IRI)
10
Modified Structural Number = 3
1.0
/
/ / /0.5
6 ,., ........
............
0.2
,.,:::~: ~-~
--
,.,;:; 0 .1
Traffic Loading
(Million ESA/Lo ne/Yeor)
Age (year)
Fig. 2 - Roughness progression under good
maintenance: flexible pavements
VOLUME 13, PART 4, PAVEMENTS AND CONSTRUCTION
 PATERSON- PREDICTION OF ROAD DETERIORATION

15. The effects of cracking, patching and
potholes are shown in the third, fourth and
fifth terms. In nearly 80 percent of the study
sections these collectively explained less than
0.1 m/km IRI change in roughness per year, but
on those sections with extensive defects they
represented up to 0.8 m/km IRI per year.
Cracking has a moderate impact, coming mostly
from the depressions forming in its vicinity.
The effect of patching is two-fold, an increase
of patching often effecting a decrease in
cracking area, and the model represents fairly
high quality wo rkmanship with an average patch
protrusion of 1.2 to 2 mm. In applications of
the model where patches are less true to the
surface, the coefficient should be amplified in
direct proportion to the average patch
protrusion he i ghts. Potholes were usually
patched immediately during the study and hence
the pothole term in eq. (1) was developed
separately by simulation (Paterson 1986).
16. The remaining causes of roughness
change were found to be independent of traffic
loading and volume. As shown in the last term
of eq. (1), the effect amounted to about 2
percent annual increase in roughness for the
study sections, accounting for an average of
one-half of the observed roughness change on
all the sections. This effect is attributed to
environmental factors such as daily temperature
changes, seasonal and other moisture movements,
and foundation movements. Validation exercises
applying the model in eq. (1) to other
countries, have indicated that the coefficient
value ranges from 1 percent in semi-arid
regions, to 2 percent in subhumid regions to
3-7 percent in temperate (freezing) regions,
annually (Paterson 1986). This range seems
consistent with the postulation of
environmental effects, but further study is
required to quantify the values reliably.
17. For systems that can not utilize
individual distress components, an aggregate
function predicting roughness from cumulative
loading and pavement age is reported in
Paterson (1986).
maintenance purposes is crocodile cracking
since it results from fatigue under traffic and
leads finally to advanced disintegration of the
surfacing. Although four severity classes were
defined in the study, two suffice for practical
purposes, namely (i) narrow cracking (cracks of
1 to 3 mm width); and (ii) wide cracking
(cracks wider than 3mm with spalling). Data on
cracking intensity (crack length per unit
area), a sometimes useful measure, were not
available. Progression was defined therefore
by the percentages of surface area cracked in
two classes, namely all cracking (narrow plus
wide, ACRA) and wide cracking (ACRW). Each by
definition progresses from 0.5 percent at
initiation to 100 percent of the surfacing
area.
20. The models predicting the age of the
surfacing at the initiation of cracking are
summarized in Tables 1 and 2 for seven types of
flexible pavement, including three with
original surfacing and four maintenance
surfacings. An example is shown in Fig. 3.
The models show strong concurrent influences of
oxidation and traffic loading. At low traffic
volumes, oxidation dominates the timing of
cracking initiation, and the initial constant
in the models represents the average 'life'
before cracking at very low volumes. As the
oxidation rate of surfacings varies
considerably with region, depending on
temperature, temperature range, binder
composition and film thickness (Dickinson
1984), calibration of the model to local
conditions is best effected through a
multiplier of this constant (see para. 40).
Surface Treatments on Granular Base
Time to Cracking (years)
15.0

~~~
CRACKING 12.5 \\ ',,_
\\ ',,_
Benkelman Beam
Deflection
\ \ ',, __ _
18. Cracking in the surfacing is \ \ ',,_
frequently a trigger for maintenance because it 10 .0 \ \ ',,_
is considered a precursor of more severe \ '
distress, leading either to increased rut depth \ ',
and roughness (through allowing surface water 7.5 \ ', -------,,O.Smm
into the pavement and loss of load-spreading \ '
\
ability) or to superficial spalling and \ ''
---
potholing. An early maintenance response to \
5.0 '
',~Omm ---
cracking is usually necessary only in moist and
temperate areas where the risks of saturating ''
the basecourse are high. In arid regions, and 2.5 " ' , 2.0mm
those tropical regions where the short duration '' '
of rainfall or good drainage protect the base
and lower layers, cracking is less of a problem o.o,rm~..-rrr~~r'T~..-.-.-rrrrr~r-.-.,-.~~rrm~..,...-r~~
-- -
and crack repair is only necessary mainly to 0 .0 0 .1 0.2 0 .3 0.4 0 .5 0.6 0.7
prevent or control potholing. Equivalent Axle Flow (Milian ESA/Lane/ Yeor)

19. The analysis of cracking data from

the Brazil study yielded prediction models for Fig. 3 - Predictions of cracking initiation
the time to initiation and rate of area for pavements with original surfacings and
progression of cracking, classified by severity granular base: double surface treatment
and type. The most important type for surfacings

13th ARRB/5th REAAA, 1986 219

 PATERSON- PREDICTION OF ROAD DETERIORATION

TABLE 1
EMPIRICAL RELATIONSHIPS FOR TIME TO THE APPEARANCE OF CRACKING IN BITUMINOUS
SURFACINGS OF FLEXIBLE AND SEMI-RIGID PAVEMENTS: FAILURE-TIME PROBABILISTIC ANALYSIS

Semi Average
Probability inter- confidence
EMPIRICAL RELATIONSHIP** factors quartile interval
K1Q K9 o factor + (ACI)
(SIQF)

1. Asphalt concrete original surfacing (96 observations*)

(a) TY = 8.38 exp [1.21 BNO - 18.6 YE4/SNC 2] 0.405 1.650 .338 1.34
(b) TY = 8.28 exp [1.70 BNO - 1.28 YE4 DEF] 0.386 1.680 .350 1.40
2. Double Surface Treatment ranular base
102 observations*)
(a) TY = 13.2 exp [ - 24.3 (1 + CQ) YE2/SNC 2 ] 0.466 1.562 0.297 1.66
(b) TY = 13.5 exp [ - 3.19 (1 + CQ) YE2 DEF] 0.458 1.573 0.305 1.73
3. Ori inal bituminous surface on cemented base
40 observations*)
TY = 1.11 exp [.035H + 0.371 1n CMOD- 0.686 1.296 0.161 1.39
-0.418 1n DEF - 2.87 YE4 DEF]
4. Asphalt Concrete Overlays (93 observations)
TY = 10.8 exp [-1.21 DEF - 1.02 YE4 DEF] 0.322 1.787 0.393 1.05
TY = 2.55 exp (0.057 HOV - 0.141 PCRW) 0.217 2.000 0.470 2.85
5. Reseals (single and double chip seals) (14 observations)
TY = 2.9 - 1.7 AC 0.247 1.932 0.447 1.18
6. Reseals (slurry seals) (78 observations)

6. TY = 1.4 - 0.8 AC 0.177 2.092 0.499 0.33

+ Note: Approximately 50% of the values lie within + SIQF TY of the estimated life TY.
* Note: While each observation had individual deflection and adjusted SNC values, the number
of fully independent section-traffic combinations is half the number of
observations.
** Note: Parameter names are defined in Table 2.

21. Traffic loading and pavement strength
affect the 'life' jointly. The modified
structural number and the Benkelman beam (80kN
axle) deflection as shown were good alternative
strength parameters; however in this study,
Dynaflect deflections and tensile strains in
the surfacing (estimated by the back-analysis
of Benkelman beam deflections) were
statistically very weak predictive parameters.
22. The models are probabilistic, and the
lives or failure times for specific
probabilities may be obtained by multiplying
the mean or expected life by a factor Kp for
probability p that cracking will occur, given
that it had not yet occurred. Values of Kp for
probabilities of 10 and 90 percent are given in
Table 1, along with the semi-interquartile
factor (SIQF) which is half the difference
between K75 and K25 The failure-time
analytical technique by which these models were
derived is described in detail in Paterson
(1986).
23. Models predicting the progression of
the percentage of surface area cracked are
given in Table 3 and Fig. 4. The analysis
found that the rate of progression followed a
typically S-shaped curve and was independent of
traffic volume and pavement strength, depending
only on pavement type. This finding implies
that cracking progression is not the extension
of individual cracks under traffic but instead
is a stochastic phenomenon of different
elements of the surface cracking according to
the distribution of failure times. Moreover,
the periods for full progression were virtually
identical to those given by applying the
probability factors of the cracking initiation
models. The observed rates varied from
one-half to double the average rates estimated.

220 VOLUME 13, PART 4, PAVEMENTS AND CONSTRUCTION

 PATERSON- PREDICTION OF ROAD DETERIORATION

TABLE II
DEFINITIONS OF PARAMETER NAMES USED IN EMPIRICAL RELATIONSHIPS

AC surface type indicator: = 1 for asphalt concrete, = 0 otherwise;

ACRA Total area of all cracking (of width > lmm), %of surface area;
ACRW = total area of wide cracking (of width> 3mm),% of surface area.
AGER age of pavement si nce construction or most recent overlay, years;
BNO excess binder content normalized as a fraction of a nominal optimum defined by (7.8 -
0.1 x maximum stone size (mm)) (at 'optimum' BNO = 0);
CMOD resilient modulus of cemented material, in GPa;
COMP average level of compaction in unbound layers expressed as fraction of nominal
specifications;
CQ construction quality (=0 if good, =1 if faulty);
DEF Benkelman Beam maximum deflection under 80 kN axle load, mm
H thickness of surfacing, mm (not exceeding 100 mm);
HOV thickness of asphalt overlay, mm;
MCRX mean area of cracking, (weighting wide (3mm) cracking twice to narrow cracking (1 mm)
once, %;
MMP mean monthly precipitation, m;
NE4 cumulative number of equivalent 80kN single axles per lane;
PCRW area of wide cracking prior to resurfacing, %;
RH rehabilitation status; = 0 if original surfacing, = 1 if an overlay;
SNC modified structural number of pavement strength;
TY age of surfacing at the appearance of crocodile cracking (1mm width and wider),
years;
TYRAV= age of surfacing at initiation of ravelling, years;
YE4 volume of equivalent single axle loads (relative load damage power of 4), million
ESA/lane/year
YE2 volume of equivalent single axle loads (relative load-damage power of 2), million
ESA/lane/yr.

TABLE II I
CRACKING PROGRESSION PREDICTIVE FUNCTIONS

PAVEMENT TYPE PROGRESSION TIME TAKEN BETWEEN APPEARANCE

RATE, ACR I OF CRACKING AND AREA SHOWN
%/Year 30% 50% 99%

All cracking
Asphalt concrete 1.84 SCA 0 55 4.7 6.1 12.2
Surface treatment 1.76 SCA 0 68 3.9 4.8 9.6
ST on cemented base 2.13 SCA 0 65 3.4 4.2 8.6
Asphalt overlays 1.07 SCA 0 7 2 5.9 7.2 14.4
Reseals 1.98 SCA 0 96 2.2 2.5 5.0
Slurry seals 2.15 SCA 0 66 3.3 4.1 8.2
Wide cracking
Asphalt concrete 2.94 SCW 0 '+'+ 3.7 5.0 10.0
Surface treatment 2. 5o sew 0 7 5 2.4 2.9 5.8
ST on cemented base 3.67SCW 0 62 2.0 2.6 5.2
Asphalt overlays 2. 58 sew 0 55 3.3 4.4 8.8
Reseals and slurries 3.4 sew 0 65 2.1 2.6 5.3

where SCA = min(ACRA, 100-ACRA)

SCW = min (ACRW, 100-ACRW)
ACR'= rate of progression of area cracked (in given class), in percent of surface area
per year
Note: At appearance of cracking, ACRA = 0.5 or ACRW = 0.5 as applicable

13th ARRB/5th REAAA, 1986 221

 PATERSON- PREDICTION OF ROAD DETERIORATION

Area o f Crockrng ('t) Probability factors:

;;:-
K10 = 0.458; Kmean = 1.0; K90 = 1.573;
100
SIQF = 0.305
Average 95% confidence intervals:
80 + 1.08 yrs for double surface treatment
;~ Mean linear
+ 2.81 yrs for slurry seals
Role 2.62 yrs for cold-mix asphalt.
60 27. The relationship is illustrated in
Fig. 5 which shows different curves for chip
seal, slurry seal and open-graded cold mixes, a
40 reduction in life under increasing traffic
volumes, and an approximately 50% reduction in
life when construction faults are present.
Range of
Observed Rates
20 28. The progression of ravelled area,
like cracking progression, was found to be
independent of traffic volume and any other
parameters. Progression to 100% of the area
0 6 10 12
was reached in an average of 4.4 years, ranging
from 3 years at the 15th percentile to 7 years
Time S1nce Initiation (years)
at the 85th percentile.
29. It will be argued that ravelling is
Fig. 4 - Range of average rates of cracking rarely observed in some regions because of
progression observed in Brazil pavement study superior design and construction control, and
in linear and logistic form that bleeding may be a more common type of
distress. However, whether ravelling or
bleeding develops is usually a case of unders
or overs in the application rate or the
24. Rainfall was found to influence the viscosity of the binders being applied, and
life before cracking only insofar as it bleeding is likely to follow a similar
affected the pavement strength. It was not relationship. It happens that the ravelling
found to affect cracking progression model above gives reasonable predictions for
significantly although it is known that water either event because it predicts a reseal cycle
ingress in localized areas of cracking may in the order of 7 years under high traffic
increase the intensity and severity of volumes of 10,000 veh/day and of 12 years under
cracking, but with only slight acceleration of low traffic volumes of 500 veh/day.
area progression.

25. The ravelling of surface treatments,

which is particularly important when it is
likely to develop into potholing, is difficult T1me to Ravelling (yea rs)

to model because of the many material

parameters involved which are difficult to
quantify. Dust on the stone particles,
binder-aggregate affinity, temperature and
moisture conditions during construction, etc.
15

. . . . ffr=
......
..............
~~;vP ~:: } Good
ColdMix
Qu?li ty
Construc i10n

are factors which may cause early ravelling or 12

stripping.
26. The relationship developed from the
data for ravelling initiation is therefore a
general one which represents the primary
mechanism of binder oxidation in failure-time
models of the same type as for cracking
initiation, as given below.
TYRAV Kp as exp(-0.655 CQ - 0.156 YAX)
where
TYRAV age of surface treatment or reseal at
the initiation of ravelling, in years
VAX annual volume of all vehicle axles,
millions/lane/yr. 0 5
10.5 for chip seal surfacings, Traffic Flow (million axles / lane year)
14.1 for slurry seal surfacings, and
8.0 for open-graded cold-mix asphalt.
CQ construction quality factor, which = Fig. 5- Model predictions for the time to
0 for good quality construction, and ravelling initiation of various surface
= 1 when faults are present that lead treatment types as a function of traffic flow
to premature failures and construction quality

222 VOLUME 13, PART 4, PAVEMENTS AND CONSTRUCTION

 PATERSON- PREDI CTION OF ROAD DETERIORATION

POTHOLING potholing is developed fr om three sources,

namely: new potholes from wide cracking and
ravelling, and enlargement of existing
30. The appearance of potholing is potholes, with the annual inc rement not
prohibitively difficult to predict exceed ing 10 percent of the area, as follows :
mec hanistically and a survey of data from
studies in four countries showed that /:J. APOT minimum of (!:J.APOTCR + /:J.APOTRV +
empirical modelling was also difficult because /:J.APOTP; 10 J
of extremely wide variations (Paterson 1986).
However, it is essential to include a potholing where
func tion in economic models of deterioration so
as to quantify the penalties of low /:J. APOT increment in total area of potholing,
maintenance, though it is usually not necessary percent of surface area;
for a PMS. Thus t he data surveyed was used to /:J. APOTCR= increment in new pothole area from
develop an ad hoc relationship as given below wide cracking, percent;
and shown in Fig . 6. Potholing is modelled to min (4 ACRW U; 6)
begin after a delay TMIN since the appearance /:J. APOTRV= increment in new pothole area (from
of wide cracking or ravelling, pr ovided there ravelling, percent,
is at least 20% of area with wide cracking or min (0.8 ARV U; 6) ;
30% with ravelling. The de lay reduc es with u (1- CQ )(VAX/SNC)/2.7H
increasing traffic volume or thinner /:J. APOTP min f/:J.APOT JKB VAX (MMP + 0.1)]: 10];
surfacings. Potholing is modelled to begin KB max (2 - 0. 2H; 0.3) for granular
when: base
0.6 for cement-treated base;
(a) AGES > TVCRW + TMIN and ACRW > 20 ; or 0.3 for bituminous base.
(b) AGES > TVRAV + TMIN and ARAV > 30;
32 . The rate of pothole enlargement is
where thus modelled to increase as the area of
AGES =age of surfacing, in years; potholes left unpatched increases and as
TYCRW age of surfacing at initiation of rainfall increases. The limits reflect the
wide cracking, in years; maximum values observed in the four country
studies (Paterson 1986), that is 6 to 10
ACRW area of wide cracking, in percent; percent of area per year (or 100 to 200 large
ARAV area of wide ravelling, in percent; holes per lane-km per year). These maximum
and rates are extreme and represent rapid
TMIN = maximum of (2 + 0.04H - 0.5 VAX; 2) disintegration of the pavement. In most
when base is non-cemented; pavements, except under high rainfalls,
maximum of (6 - VAX; 2) when base is potholing is likely to occur at very much
cemented. slower rates of less than 0.2 percent per year
(5 to 10 potholes per lane-km) and the models
31. The progression of potholing is also above may need further controlling to ensure
extremely difficult to model reliably, but this.
again a model is needed for completeness and
was based on available data. The total area of
RUT DEPTH

Time to Pothole Initiation (years)

33. The models predicting rut depth
represent the accumulated unrecovered or
8 ' 'plastic' deformation caused by traffic on
'' thin-surfaced pavements (not more than 100 mm
' ' thick asphalt) with granular or cemented base
' ' construction. In pavements with thick
'' Surfacing
bituminous layers, deformation develops by
6 ............. ' ' Thickness
different mechanisms which requires a separate
' '
' '........_ 150mm model. In this set of models, the mean rut
5 ' ' depth is important primarily because it is a
'' major predictor of the rut depth standard
' ' deviation (SD), which is important because of
4 , ___ _
' ' its direct and strong influence on roughness.
...... 50mm ''
3
~5mm
,
',, ',
' 34. The mean rut depth was found to
2 ~~.____._-~--~----------~------- increase sharply initially and therefore at an
ever-diminishing rate, tending towards a
notional ultimate value after about 10 years.
The model developed from the data related the
mean to the average compaction, the corrected
structural number and the cumulative traffic
loading, with effects also from cracking,
0 6 10 rainfall, deflection and rehabilitation status,
Traffic Flow (million axles/lone year) as follows:
AGER0.166 NE4ERM
Fig. 6 - Predicted time before potholing ROM=------
initiation after wide cracking SNC0.502 COMP2.30

13th ARRB/5th REAAA, 1986 223

 PATERSON- PREDICTION OF ROAD DETERIORATION

Rut Depth Mean (mm) Rut Depth Standard Deviation (mm)

22.5

Traffic = 0 5 M ESA / lane/Yeor

Modified Structura l
20.0 Traffic = 0 .5 M ESA/la/Yr
Number. SNC = 2

Modified
17.5 Struc tural
6 Number. SNC =

15.0

12.5

10.0

7.5

5.0

2.5

0.0
I I I , T"TTTTt"TTT

0 4 6 10 12 14 16 18 20

Age(yea rs)
0 6 10 12 14 16 18 20
Ruf Dep th Mea n (mm)

Fig. 7 - Predicted trend of rut depth mean

Fig. 8 - Predicted trend of rut depth
standard deviation
No. obs = 2546; S.E. = 2.93 mm; R2 = 0.42
where ERM 0.0902 + 0.0384 DEF - 0.009RH + accelerated load studies and may warrant
0.158 MMP MCRX; further study. Certainly the effect on rutting
varies considerably with runoff, drainage,
ROM = mean rut depth in both wheelpaths, mm; pavement permeability, etc.
and ether parameters were defined in Table 2.
37. A potentially important effect, apparent
The predictions from this model for typical in some of the data and mechanistical ly logical
pavements of SNC 2 and 6 are shown in Fig. 7. but as yet not quantified, was that the
ultimate value of mean rut depth correlated
35. The variation of rut depth, expressed with the maximum axle loading (e.g ., the 99th
by the SO, was found to be strongly related to percentile loading). On the pavements in the
the mean and parameters similar to those above, study, designed according to sound codes, the
as follows maximum values observed were virtually all less
than 6mm, which is minor, so that rut depth
ROM 0.532 NE 4 ERS prediction is frequently not important in
RDS 2.06 pa vement management. Its importance will
SNC0.422 COMP1.66 increase however as axle loads increase.

where ERS = - 0.009 RH + 0.116 MMP MCRX ADAPTATION

RDS = standard deviation of rut depth in both 38. The models above were developed almost
wheelpaths, mm. entirely from one study and, by virtue of the
wide, factorically-designed data base and the
strong influence of mechanistic principles in
No. obs = 2546 SE = 1.04 mm R2 = 0.51 the analytical development the models are
reasonably universal in their application.
Typical predictions for a range of pavements of Howeve r , some adaptation to climates and
SNC 2 to 8 are shown in Fig. 8. countries other than Brazil may be necessary.
Some guidance is given here on how this might
be done.
36. The models both indicate the importance of
compaction on the rut depths observed, with an 39. In a PMS, successive years of condition
under-compaction of 10 percent causing a 27 surveys will provide a sufficient data base
percent increase in the mean, and 35 percent only after 5 to 6 years to perhaps permit
increase in the SO, of rut depth. The effect re-estimation of the models. Until then, and
of cracking and rainfall is to increase the in all cases where some parameters are lacking ,
rate of rut depth progression, as shown by the however, it is suggested that the models above
broken lines in Fig. 7. These effects are not be calibrated by available local performance
as strong however as suggested by some data, as follows.

224 VOLUME 13, PART 4, PAVEMENTS AND CONSTRUCTION

 PATERSON- PREDICTION OF ROAD DETERIORATION
40. In the cracking initiation models, the
traffic-pavement strength term may be
considered universal, and the ageing effects be
calibrated by observing the cracking on many
low-volume pavements, i.e., about 10 pavements
with less than 0.1 million MESA/lane/yr and at
least 6 to 10 years old. Determine the average
life Ta before the appearance of cracking, and
compute the calibration factor, Kci:
Kci = 1.10 Ta I ao
where a0 initial constant for given
pavement type in Table 1; and
average surfacing age at
appearance of cracking
The calibrated prediction of cracking
initiation time (TY') is then:
TY' = Kci TY
(Note the prime ' is used to denote the
calibrated prediction). It is to be expected
for example that the value of Kci for asphalt
concrete cracking will often exceed one,
because the average maximum life observed in
Brazil was shorter than 6 years.
41. Calibration data on cracking
progression will rarely be available on
sufficient pavements to overcome the large
variations encountered, and the best approach
at this stage seems to be to rely on the
apparent identity between the length of the
progression period and the dispersion of
failure-times. Under this assumption the
sealing in the progression period will be
identical to the scaling in th e initiation
time, or:
Kcp = 1/Kci
where Kcp calibration factor for area of
cracking progressing i.e., ~ACRA'
Kcp. ~CRA
42. Calibration for the ravelling
initiation and progression models should follow
the same approach as for cracking in the
preceding paras.
43. The potholing models, if they are to
be included, should be adjusted by ad hoc
selection of a factor that gives results deemed
appropriate in local conditions. The results
should be determined by a range of
computational runs for the whole deterioration
cycle of some typical roads, with maintenance
effects excluded.
44. A calibration factor for the rut
depth predictions should be determined as the
ratio of the average observed rut depth in a
sample of at least 25 pavements at least 8
years old to the average predicted rut depth
using the models given above.
13th ARRB/5th REAAA, 1986
45. The roughness prediction requires
calibration in two aspects. Firstly it is
suggested that the coefficient of the patching
term be scaled for the average quality of local
finished patches. As noted in para. 15, the
scaling factor should be the ratio of the
average rectified protrusion height of patches
(that is with ups and downs both treated as
heights) to 2mm. Secondly, the environmental
effect may be adjusted tho~gh the coefficient
of the final term in eq.(1), either by choosing
a value appropriately from para. 16., or by
undertaking a reverse-prediction of roughness
on a broad samp 1e of 1oca 1 roads. The 1atter
course is demanding and requires data on the
current roughness, age, condition, and pavement
strength, and history of traffic loading and
major maintenance, on a sample of at least 25
pavements, and a fair knowledge or indication
of the likely level of initial roughness after
construction. Then, by iteratively comparing
the predicted and (likely) observed roughness
changes for the whole sample, and adjusting the
coefficient so that the differences between
predicted and observed values average zero, one
can obtain an estimate for the time
coefficient.
CONCLUSION
46. The relationships presented here for
predicting pavement deterioration were
developed from data from in-service roads
selected to cover a much wider-range of
variables and longer time period than is
usually available to those setting up
prediction functions in a PMS, or to those
applying an economic evaluation tool such as
HOM III to a road network. For this reason,
and because of their partly mechanistic
structure, the relationships are offered both
as a reliable basis for making first estimate
predictions, and also as a framework to be
calibrated with local performance data as they
become available.
47. The guidance on calibration of the
relationships to a given road network applies
as much to those adapting the World Bank's HOM
III model to local conditions as it does to
those establishing a PMS. Inevitably,
additional features will often need to be added
in a PMS to treat local practices such as
patching, and possibly local climate or
drainage effects.
48. This can be considerable as evidenced
by the probabilistic analysis of cracking in
this study which showed that 80 percent of the
individual observed lives of pavements of
similar type, strength, traffic loading and age
differed from their mean by up to about 65
percent. This compares with an error of only
about 15 percent i n predicting the mean life
given the input parameters. The inherent
variability of pavement performance can
therefore overwhelm a validation or calibration
exerci se if the sample si ze is too small.
Proper allowance for variability is therefore
very important when calibrating or applying
models in management systems.
225
 PATERSON- PREDICTION OF RO A D DETERIORATI O N

REFERENCES and W atanatada T. (1985).

Bhandari , A. S. , Fossberg, P. E. and Har ral,
C.G. (1984). Towards opti mizat ion of paved
r oad ma i nt enance i n Cost a Rica . Proceedings,
Congress of Transport Eng ineering, Min ist ry of
Public Wo r ks and Transpo rt, San Jos~. Cost a
Rica.
Dick i nson, E.J. (198 4). Bitumi nous Roads in
Australia, Aust ralian Road Research Board,
Melbourne, Australia.
GEIPOT (1982) Research on the
Interrelationships between Costs of Highway
Construction, Maintenance and Utilizati on. 12
Vols. Ministerio dos Tr ansportes, Bras i lia ,
Brazil.
Paterson, W.D.O. (1986) The Prediction of Road
Deterioration and Maintenance Effects. Vol. 3
of Highway Design and Maintenance Standards
study series. World Bank, Washington, D.C.
(in press).
~Re~1"a~t~i-
o-n~
sh~,~ veh i cle speed , ride
. p-s--.be twee n
qua lity, and r oad roughnes s. In Measuring
Road Roughness and Its Effects-on User Cost and
Comfort, ASTM STP 884. American Soci ety fo r
Test i ng and Mat er ials , Ph il adel phia, 1985 , pp .
89- 110 .
Pot te r , D.W. (1982) The Development of Road
Roughness wi th Time - an Investi gat ion. ARRB
Inte rna l report AI R 346-1, Aust r al ia n Road
Resea rch Board, Melbo ur ne , Austral ia.
Sayer s M.W., Gi llespie T.D. and Paterson
W.D.O. (1986) Gui deli nes for Conduct i ng and
Calibrating Road Roughness Meas urements.
Technical Paper No. 46. Wo r l d Ban k,
Washington, D.C.
Watanatada, T., Tsunokawa , K., Paterson,
W.D.O., Bhandari, A. and Harral, C.G., (1986)
The Highway Design and Maintenance Standards
Model HOM III: Model Descri tion and User's
Manual. World Bank, Washington, D.C. in
press).

Bill Paterson i s Senior Highway Engineer and Pavement Sys t ems Speci alis t
with the Tr ansportat ion Department of the Wor ld Bank, advising on r oad
projects , management , design, r esearch, and policy i s sues in developi ng
countries . He has degr ees of B. E. (Ci vil )(Hons) i n 196? and Ph . D. i n 19?2
from t he Uni versity of Canter bury, New Zealand, and led r esearch in
pavement performance and design at the National I nsti tute f or Transport
and Road Research i n South Africa unti l 1978. He t hen wor ked with new
main t enance and design techniques with a contract or in New Ze aland and
l ater was specialis t consu l tant to var ious project s in Austral asia and
South- eas t Asia until late 1981 when he began this s tudy f or the Wor ld
W. D. O. Paterson Bank , first in Brazil and l ater i n t he USA.

226 VOLUME 13, PART 4, PAVEMENTS AND CONSTRUCTION