Richard Suttmeier is the Chief Market Strategist at www.ValuEngine.com.

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July 22, 2010 – The Dow Trading Range Remains 10,019 to 10,379

The yield on the 10-Year note tests a new low for the year at 2.853 on Wednesday deeper within
the range of my annual pivot at 2.999 and my annual risky level at 2.813. Gold trades between
$1175 and my semiannual pivot at $1218.7. Crude oil continues to yoyo around my annual pivot
at $77.05. The range for the euro is 1.275 to 1.30. The Dow trading range is 10,019 to 10,379. A
daily close below my weekly pivot at 10,019 would be a problem for stocks. MacroMarkets.com
Home Price Expectations Survey and my Presentation in NYC on Monday, August 9th at
Bloomberg Headquarters at 5:30 PM
10-Year Note – (2.896) My weekly value level is 3.013 with annual and daily pivots at 2.999 and 2.907,
and annual risky level at 2.813. Semiannual and quarterly value levels are 3.479 and 3.486 with
quarterly and semiannual risky levels at 2.495 and 2.249. The low yield for the move was 2.853 set
on July 21st, and was a failed test of my 2.999 and 2.813 annual risky levels.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Comex Gold – ($1191.8) My quarterly and annual value levels are $1140.9 and $1115.2 with daily and
semiannual pivots at $1186.1 and $1218.7, and semiannual, weekly and monthly risky levels at
$1260.8, $1264.3 and $1279.3. The all time high of $1266.5 set on June 21st was a test of June’s
monthly resistance, as a significant top for gold.
 Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Nymex Crude Oil – ($76.56) Still influenced by my annual pivot at $77.05 with monthly, and weekly
risky levels at $79.36 and $79.87. My quarterly value level is $56.63 with semiannual risky level at
$83.94.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

The Euro – (1.2757) My weekly value level is 1.2366 with a daily pivot at 1.2972, and the 200-day
simple moving average at 1.3664. Monthly and quarterly value levels are 1.2035 and 1.1424 with
semiannual risky level at 1.4733.
 Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

Daily Dow: (10,121) This week’s pivot is 10,019 with daily and annual pivots at 10,253 and 10,379,
and semiannual and monthly risky levels at 10,558 and 10,891. My quarterly value level is 7,812 with
my annual risky level at 11,235, which was tested at the April 26th high at 11,258. This test marked the
end of the bear market rally that began in March 2009. We are in the second leg of the multi-year bear
market that began in October 2007 targeting 8,500 before 11,500.

Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters

MacroMarkets.com Home Price Expectations Survey – The July 2010 survey is now available. I was
invited to participate in this survey of 109 participants, which is a diverse group of economists, real
estate experts, investment and market strategists, but my submission was not used. I guess I was the
outlier to the downside for home prices. The survey is a consensus on the path of the S&P / Case-
Shiller US National Home Price Index over the next five years.
As the chart shows the consensus is that home prices are projected to move in a gentle slope higher
through 2014. My projection is that the Index will trend towards were it was in 2000 (lower left) by the
end of 2014. My main reason for being the bear on home prices is that appraised values of homes
have not yet been factored into the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. The home my son bought in June
2009 was at an estimated 40% below where it would have been bought in mid-2006. This home now
has an appraised value down another 28%. This will hit most of the twenty cities over the next five
years as defaults, foreclosures and short sales rise.
The housing market is the key to economic health on Main Street, USA, and this industry needs to be a
job creator, and unfortunately it is not. Fed Chief Bernanke has not given us a rosy economic forecast
in his testimony Wednesday afternoon, which supports my premise. The S&P/Case-Shiller US National
Home Price Index will be at least down to 100 in 2014, not to the 150 area projected by the consensus.

Richard Suttmeier Presentation – Monday, August 9, 2010: I will be the speaker at the Market
Technicians Association Meeting to be held at Bloomberg Headquarters at 5:30 PM on Monday,
August 9, 2010.
• Home Prices are Set to Fall to the Levels of 1999 / 2000
• Community Banks remain Vulnerable for Failure
• US Stocks have begun the Second Leg of a Multi-Year Bear Market
• "Buy and Trade' Replaces "Buy and Hold"
To attend please reply to rsuttmeier@gmail.com and include: first and last name, company name,
address, email and phone number so that you can be pre-registered into the Bloomberg security
systems for this event.
That’s today’s Four in Four. Have a great day.
Richard Suttmeier
Chief Market Strategist
www.ValuEngine.com
(800) 381-5576
As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.com. I
have daily, weekly, monthly, and quarterly newsletters available that track a variety of equity and other data parameters as
well as my most up-to-date analysis of world markets. My newest products include a weekly ETF newsletter as well as the
ValuTrader Model Portfolio newsletter. I hope that you will go to www.ValuEngine.com and review some of the sample
issues of my research.

“I Hold No Positions in the Stocks I Cover.”