Y X Y PREDICTED SST

45 12 46.58 11.11
46 13 48.33 5.44
46 14 50.08 5.44
45 10 43.08 11.11
54 15 51.83 32.11
54 14 50.08 32.11
MEAN 48.33 97.33
INTERCEPT 25.58
SLOPE 1.75
R Squared 0.503424658
R 0.7095242473
SSR SSE
3.06 2.51
0.00 5.44
3.06 16.67
27.56 3.67
12.25 4.69
3.06 15.34
49.00 48.33
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.7095242473
R Square 0.5034246575
Adjusted R Square 0.3792808219
Standard Error 3.4761089358
Observations 6

ANOVA
df SS MS F
Regression 1 49 49 4.0551724138
Residual 4 48.3333333333 12.083333333
Total 5 97.3333333333

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value

Intercept 25.5833333333 11.3861361849 2.2468845373 0.0879481844
X Variable 1 1.75 0.8690272339 2.0137458662 0.1143096296
Significance F
0.1143096296

Lower 95% Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%

-6.029648744 57.196315411 -6.0296487445 57.1963154112
-0.66280641 4.16280641 -0.66280641 4.16280641
 (X) - Green Shades TV Appearances (Y) - Demand for Bass Drums
3 3
4 6
7 7
6 5
8 10
5 8
9
MEAN 6.5
INTERCEPT 1
SLOPE 1
R SQUARED 0.593220339
R 0.7702079842
Y PREDICTED SST SSR SSE
4 12.25 6.25 1 Regression Mod
5 0.25 2.25 1
for Excercise 1
8 0.25 2.25 1
12
7 2.25 0.25 4
9 12.25 6.25 1 10
6 2.25 0.25 4
10 29.5 17.5 12 8

0
2 3 4 5 6
ession Model
Excercise 1

5 6 7 8 9
SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.770208
R Square 0.59322
Adjusted R 0.491525
Standard Er1.732051
Observatio 6

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 17.5 17.5 5.833333 0.0731395444
Residual 4 12 3
Total 5 29.5

Coefficients
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95% Upper 95%
Intercept 1 2.384474 0.41938 0.696482 -5.6203600183 7.62036
X Variable 1 0.414039 2.415229 0.07314 -0.1495574867 2.149557
Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
-5.62036 7.62036
-0.149557 2.149557
 (Y) FINAL AVG (X) 1ST TEST GRADE Y PREDICTED
93 98 91.50
78 77 75.96
84 88 84.10
73 80 78.18
84 96 90.02
64 61 64.12
64 66 67.82
95 95 89.28
76 69 70.04
83 #2: 80.39751151
MEAN 79
INTERCEPT 18.99
SLOPE 0.74
R SQUARED (Coe. Of Determ 0.85
R (Correlation of Coefficien 0.92
SST SSR SSE
196.00 156.13 2.26 158.40
1.00 9.25 4.17 13.42
25.00 25.98 0.01 25.99
36.00 0.68 26.81 27.49
25.00 121.35 36.19 157.53
225.00 221.40 0.01 221.41
225.00 124.99 14.59 139.59
256.00 105.59 32.77 138.36
9.00 80.29 35.53 115.82
998 845.658875 152.3411249 998
 MOVING AVG WEIGHTED AVG EXPONENTIAL SMOOTING
MAD MAD MAD
1 90
2 98 90
3 94 97.2
4 86 94 8 94.44 8.44 94.32
5 90 92.66667 2.666667 91.28 1.28 86.832
6 91 90 1 89.56 1.44 89.6832
7 92 89 3 89.57 2.43 90.86832
8 99 91 8 91.23 7.77 91.88683
9 98 94 4 94.93 3.07 98.28868
10 96 96.33333 0.333333 97.01 1.01 98.02887
3.857143 3.634286
 Moving Average Weighted Moving Average
Y(Actual) Forecast Error Forecast(n=2, 70%/30%)
1 10
2 11
3 10.5 10.5 0 10.7
4 11 10.75 0.25 10.65
5 12 10.75 1.25 10.85
6 12.5 11.5 1 11.7
7 12.25 0.625 12.35
Weighted Moving Average Exponential Smoothing Trending
Error Forecast Error Forecast Error
10.02381 0.02381
10 10.48095 0.519048
0.2 10.8 0.3 10.9381 0.438095
0.35 10.56 0.44 11.39524 0.395238
1.15 10.912 1.088 11.85238 0.147619
0.8 11.7824 0.7176 12.30952 0.190476
0.625 12.35648 0.6364 12.76667 0.285714

intercept 9.566667
slope 0.457143
 (X) AVERAGE PER SEMESTER

1st 1 4000 4083.3333333333

2014 2nd 2 3800 3853.3333333333
Summer 3 1800 1836.6666666667
1st 4 4100
2015 2nd 5 3860
Summer 6 1800
1st 7 4150
2016 2nd 8 3900
Summer 9 1910
OVERALL AVG 10 3257.777778
11
12

STEPS:
1-Deseasonalize
2-Project the trend (Regression)
3-Seasonalize
 Seasonal Indeces Deseasonalized Amounts (Y) Regression Line

1.2534106412 3,191 3,178

1.1828103683 3,213 3,198
0.5637789905 3,193 3,218
1.2534106412 3,271 3,238
1.1828103683 3,263 3,258
0.5637789905 3,193 3,278
1.2534106412 3,311 3,298
1.1828103683 3,297 3,318
0.5637789905 3,388 3,338
1.2534106412 3,358
1.1828103683 3,378
0.5637789905 3,398

intercept 3157.9453295001
slope 19.9664896555 Char

5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7

Column D Column G
 Seasonalized Projection

3,983
3,782
1,814
4,058
3,853
1,848
4,133
3,924
1,882
4,208 1st
3,995 2nd 2017 (Forecast)
1,915 Summer

Chart Title

5000
4000
3000
2000
Column I
1000
Column H
0
1 2 Column G
3 4 5 6 7 8 Column D
9

Column D Column G Column H Column I