Demand Planning

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Demand Planning

© All Rights Reserved

- Demand Forecasting
- Industrial Engineering by S K Mondal
- PROJECT IDENTIFICATION AND FORMULATION
- Importance of Forecasting
- STAT 3360 Homework Chapter 9
- Time Series Forecasting Using Holt-Winters Exponential Smoothing
- Stat Graphics
- 2011 Atlas Standard volume 11 - Giving results through Nov. 2011
- Technical Tutorial En
- Ch3 Planning, Sales Forecasting, And Budgeting
- OIL and Gas - Rishabh
- Magnum 1 Minute System
- New Study: Mexico Electrophysiology Procedures Market Trend and Forecast Report
- Statics
- Week3 Test
- Demand Forecasting Student 01
- HRP
- SALES AND DITRIBUTION PPT 5
- Sales Forecasting Chp.3
- MATH1131_Final_2009W

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Forecasting

Have you ever heard of an occupation that rewards an employee for being wrong?

Surprisingly, you can, as a demand forecaster, be wrong and still remain in the

companys good graces.

Why are errors in this occupation tolerated when they would likely lead to dismissal in

other job roles? The answer lies in the fact that all organizations have a need to

understand and quantify future customer demands for its products and services. This

knowledge will facilitate decisions that can significantly increase the competiveness and

profitability of the organization. For example, an organization projecting 25% annual

growth will need to invest in manufacturing capacity upgrades and additions in the

future. Failure to do so on a timely basis would likely result in lost sales, expediting

costs, and low employee morale.

Forecasts are often wrong. Luckily, the decisions required to operate a successful

enterprise rarely require 100% accuracy. As long as the demand forecast is reasonably

accurate, the organization can still make the correct decision. Continuing with the

previous illustration, if forecasted growth was 25% while actual annual growth was 28%,

the company will still need to expand in the future. While the timing of their capacity

expansion may be slightly incorrect, the plan to add capacity is still valid. In other words,

the forecast was value adding.

This course will provide you with quantitative demand forecasting techniques that are

appropriate for a large number of the mature products sold today. In addition, forecast

performance measures will be discussed that evaluate the degree to which a demand

forecast is value adding.

After completing this course, you should be able to:

Develop demand forecasts using averaging methods.

Develop demand forecasts using single exponential smoothing.

Calculate a variety of forecast error measures.

Calculate and detect forecast bias.

Copyright 2012 Accenture. All rights reserved. You may only use and print one copy of this document for private study in

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Slide 4: Lesson 1: Demand Forecasting Concepts

At any given time, successful organizations will have various products at different

stages of the product life cycle. This lesson will demonstrate the quantitative forecasting

techniques required to predict future demands for mature products.

List the steps required to perform simple averaging forecasts.

Update a forecast created with a simple average.

Discuss weaknesses of a simple average forecast.

Develop an initial forecast using a moving average technique.

Update a forecast using a moving average method.

Calculate an initial demand forecast utilizing a weighted moving average method.

Perform ongoing updates to a weighted moving average forecast.

Introduction

The simple averaging forecasting method follows a five-step process:

Simple averaging begins with the gathering of historical demand data. This step must

be completed with care and should include a data cleansing activity to eliminate

abnormalities in the demand data. For example, if the past demand was heavily

influenced by an unusual and rare weather-related event, the demand forecaster may

replace it with an estimate that represents the normal demand for that time period.

Add all of the demand data to obtain the total demand for this product.

Use the arithmetic mean to average the data. Obtain the mean by dividing the total

demand by the total number of periods.

Step 4: Round

Round the average to the number of decimal places that makes sense for the item

being forecast. As a guideline, if a product is manufactured and sold in units of one,

then round to the nearest whole number.

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Step 5: Publish Forecast

This step should include estimating the forecast error that can be expected. This is

calculated by comparing the smallest and largest historical demands to the forecast and

selecting the largest difference.

A graph of sample data illustrates the outcome of the five-step process. In this case 8

periods of historical data are added, with a result of 600, and divided by 8 to create the

forecast of 75. The largest forecast error is 15. This was derived from the smallest

demand data, 60, subtracted from the forecast of 75. The published forecast becomes

75 +/- 15.

As extra historical demand is realized, the procedure can be repeated to include the

latest data. In this example period, 9 data has been added to the previous

demonstration, resulting in a new total of 680 and an updated average of 75.5. This was

rounded up to 76. Similarly, the new error is set at 16, and the published forecast is now

76 +/- 16.

By definition, simple averaging uses inception-to-date historical data. For products with

a long product life cycle, this aspect of the averaging technique can be very

cumbersome. As a result, most organizations utilize an approach that limits the

historical data to a manageable and meaningful quantity. This is usually one to three

years in duration. In this case a moving average forecast is being utilized.

Simple averaging also treats all historical data equally. This is not appropriate when the

current marketplace conditions have changed dramatically. For example, consider a

product with three years of demand data. In the first year, distribution was limited to 100

retail outlets, and the unit selling price was $5.00. Today, the distribution network has

expanded to 300 retail locations, and the price has been reduced to $3.99. Clearly, the

inclusion of introductory product demand will distort the demand forecast moving

forward. This can be corrected by reducing the amount of historical data included in the

moving average calculations or by adopting a weighted moving average.

Last, the simple averaging technique is only suitable when the base component of

demand is present. If trends, seasonality, or cyclical patterns exist, more complex tools

are required. These can include regression, seasonal decomposition, and econometric

modeling.

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Slide 9: Calculating a Moving Average

Introduction

The procedure to perform a moving average forecast is very similar to that of a simple

averaging technique and uses a five-step process.

Step 1: Initialization

In this technique, a fixed window of the most recent historical data is utilized in the

averaging process. Most applications utilize a window size of three to six periods.

Smaller window sizes tend to be more reactive to any random elements in the demand

pattern. They would also detect any demand pattern shifts faster than larger window

sizes.

After setting the window size, the procedure for the first period starts by gathering

historical demand data to fill the window. This data should be cleansed for

abnormalities.

Calculate the average value inside the window by summing demand and dividing by the

number of periods in the window.

After rounding, the forecast error is computed by comparing the smallest and largest

values inside the window to the new forecast. As before, the largest absolute difference

is adopted as the error value. Last, the new forecast is published for all periods in the

future.

As new historical data becomes available, the window slides down the table of

demands, allowing the oldest data to be dropped from future calculations. At the same

time, the most recent historical data is included in the window for analysis. Steps 3 and

4 are then repeated.

This example utilizes a three-month moving average technique. The initial forecast

generation is shown first. It is calculated from the first three periods of data: 112, 123,

and 124. As time passes, period four historical data becomes available. Note how the

moving window drops down to include the newest demand history, 108, which in turn

causes the oldest data, 112, to be dropped from further analysis. A new updated

forecast is published going forward. This process will repeat itself as new data is

realized each period.

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Slide 11: Calculating a Weighted Moving Average

The weighted moving average is an extension of the moving average technique. In

addition to introducing the moving window of historical data, this technique multiplies

each data point by a weighting factor. This weighting factor ranges from 0 to 1. The

actual number used represents the percentage of the historical data that is utilized to

generate the new forecast. Typically, larger numbers are reserved for the most recent

past and the weights are reduced with time. Care must be taken to ensure that the sum

of the weights equals 1. In this course, the weights will always be given.

The procedure used in this methodology closely parallels the moving average technique.

It begins by setting the window size and weights. Following this step, historical demand

data is gathered to fill the window. Data cleansing is performed as required. Each of the

data points is then multiplied by an appropriate weight. The weighted numbers are

added to generate a future forecast that can be rounded as desired. Forecast error is

computed as before to complete the process.

Subsequent periods follow the same procedure after the window has been shifted to

drop off the oldest historical data.

This example utilizes the same data that was analyzed on a three-month moving

average basis. Weights of 0.6, 0.3, and 0.1 will be utilized. The initial forecast is

calculated by adding the weighted historical demand values. Specifically, the forecast

equals 10% of 112 plus 30% of 123 plus 60% of 124. The initial forecast of 122.5 has

been rounded up to 123. The forecast error has been set at plus or minus 11 based

upon the smallest historical data, or 112 in comparison to this forecast.

Note how the window slides down to drop off the oldest demand data. In addition, the

weights slide down. The new updated forecast is the addition of 10% of 123 plus 30% of

124 plus 60% of 108.

The last table summarizes the forecasts generated by the moving average and

weighted moving average examples. Notice how the weighted average technique tends

to be more reactive to the most recent demands as evidenced by the close proximity of

the forecast to the latest demand value. This sensitivity is increased by selecting greater

values for the most recent weight, 0.6 in this example, relative to the other weights

utilized.

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Slide 13: Check Your Understanding

At any given time, successful organizations will have various products at different

stages of the product life cycle. This lesson provided the quantitative demand

forecasting techniques required to predict future demands for mature products.

In this lesson, you listed the steps required to perform a simple averaging forecast. In

addition, you updated a simple average forecast and discussed weaknesses associated

with this technique. You also developed an initial forecast using either moving average

or weighted moving average methods. Finally, you reviewed how to update forecasts

using the same methods as new historical data becomes available.

Demand forecasters are always searching for improved forecasting methods. In

particular, a quicker and more efficient method of developing a moving average forecast

exists called single exponential smoothing.

Discuss the exponential smoothing formula and how it relates to the moving

average technique.

Develop and update a demand forecast utilizing exponential smoothing.

Discuss the impact of different smoothing constants on forecasting results.

Many decades ago, the cost of computer storage was extremely high. As a result, an

organization with thousands of items utilizing a six-month moving average forecasting

method would have experienced a large computing charge for its demand forecasting

process. Demand forecasters were given the challenge of creating a methodology that

would generate the same result at a fraction of the computing costs. This ultimately led

to the creation of a technique called single exponential smoothing.

Single exponential smoothing is a very popular demand forecasting technique

supported by a large number of software packages. Its popularity is linked to its ability to

predict stable demand patterns with minimal historical data.

Copyright 2012 Accenture. All rights reserved. You may only use and print one copy of this document for private study in

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document, may not be photocopied, distributed, or otherwise duplicated, repackaged or modified in any way.

Note: Interactive elements such as activities, quizzes and assessment tests are not available in printed form.

This course will utilize the terms single exponential smoothing and exponential

smoothing interchangeably. While other similar forecasting techniques such as double

and triple exponential smoothing exist, our discussion will be limited to single

exponential smoothing.

Exponential smoothing demand forecasts are calculated based upon the formula

NF = OF + (A - OF)

In this equation NF is the new or updated forecast, OF is the current or old forecast, A is

the actual demand this period, and is a smoothing constant that ranges between 0

and 1. The new forecast is equal to the old forecast plus the product of the difference

between actual demand and the old forecast and the smoothing constant. In effect, the

exponential smoothing formula updates the current forecast with a percentage of the

forecast error. The exact percentage is determined by the smoothing constant.

equation

= 2/(n + 1)

In this equation, is the smoothing constant, and n represents the number of periods

included in the moving average forecasting method. The smoothing constant equals two

divided by the sum of the number of periods plus 1. For example, a smoothing constant

of 50% would give results similar to a three-month moving average.

As mentioned earlier, the smoothing constant can range from 0 to 1. It is very rare to

utilize either extreme. A value of 0 would result in a forecast that never changes, while a

value of 1 would be equivalent to setting the new forecast to the actual demand. Instead,

demand planners often make a qualitative judgment and assign an alpha value that is

appropriate to their situation. Some demand forecasting software can also provide

recommendations for this parameter.

Two general guidelines that can be utilized when selecting a smoothing constant are:

1. If you have a flexible supply chain, use a higher alpha value.

2. If your supply chain is less flexible, use a lower alpha value.

To illustrate these guidelines, some of the previous demonstration data has been

recalculated for a relatively high smoothing constant of 80%. In addition, the forecast

has been updated for an additional two periods. Examination of the results reveals the

most important principle of smoothing constants: higher smoothing constant values

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make the forecasting process more sensitive to random variations in the demand

pattern. This extra forecast sensitivity is generally desirable when:

The supply chain is very flexible. A factory with short lead times, excess capacity,

small setup times, and cross-trained employees could benefit from higher

smoothing constant values.

The product is very profitable or important. An organization may find it

advantageous to aggressively chase demand when the product has a high

margin or is sold to important customers.

The marketplace is volatile and may be subject to a sudden increase in overall

demand.

In this example a relatively small smoothing constant of 0.2 is utilized. Beginning with

nine periods of historical data, the initial starting forecast is set at the average of the

data. As with other averaging techniques, an error range is calculated by comparing the

forecast to the maximum demand and the minimum demand contained in the historical

data. The largest absolute difference is chosen as the error approximation. In this

example, the initial forecast becomes 105 +/- 7.

update the forecasted demand moving forward. The figure summarizes this calculation

for an actual demand of 115. The new updated forecast becomes 107 +/- 8.

This simple calculation is repeated each time new data becomes available. The

calculations are shown for the next period actual of 100. In this case the resulting

forecast is reduced to 106 +/-9. This forecast was rounded from 105.6. Last, a table

summarizing the previous results compared to a nine-month moving average illustrates

the similarity between the two methods as predicted by the formula alpha equals 2

divided by n plus 1.

Single exponential smoothing represents a quicker and more efficient method for the

development of demand forecasts for mature products. Therefore every forecaster

should be aware of this technique and be able to utilize it as appropriate.

In this lesson, you explored the exponential smoothing formula and how it relates to the

moving average technique. In addition, you developed and updated a demand forecast

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utilizing exponential smoothing. Last, you examined the impact of different smoothing

constants on forecasting results.

Forecast error measurements can be utilized to signal the need for an enhanced

forecasting methodology or to guide statistical safety stock calculations. This lesson will

provide a variety of forecast error measurements that can be utilized for this purpose.

These measures are applicable to all industries.

Discuss the relationship of the normal curve distribution as it relates to forecast

errors.

Calculate mean absolute deviation.

Calculate the absolute percent error.

Develop the mean absolute percent error.

If the forecaster were to analyze a set of unbiased forecast errors by creating a

histogram of those errors, the result will often approximate a normal distribution.

It is symmetrical about the mean or average (that is, no bias).

A majority of the data points cluster around the mean.

The tails of the normal curve run asymptotic to the x-axis (that is, they never

cross the horizontal axis).

Mathematicians have studied normal curves for decades. As a result, a complete set of

terminology and measurement systems have been developed for normal curves. The

spread of the normal curve, in this example 50150, is referred to as the dispersion.

The size of this dispersion can be measured in a variety of ways including by standard

deviation. This measure is often referred to as the Greek letter sigma. A simpler

measure of dispersion is mean absolute deviation. This measure can be utilized to

approximate the standard deviation by using the formula

= 1.25 MAD

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To reiterate, this formula provides an approximation of standard deviation, not an exact

equivalent.

Mean absolute deviation (MAD) calculations follow the measures name. Specifically:

1. Compute the forecast error or deviation by period. The industry standard for this

calculation is actual demand minus forecasted demand. For example, period one

deviation is the difference between 110 and 100, or 10 units.

2. Calculate the absolute value of this error by turning negative deviations positive.

Positive deviations remain unchanged. This is illustrated nicely in period two.

Note how the negative deviation of -10 becomes +10 upon completion of this

step.

3. Sum the absolute deviations. In this example the result is 65.

4. Divide the result by the number of observations. For this example the result is 65

divided by 5, or 13.

Using the formula, the standard deviation can be approximated by multiplying by 1.25.

This results in a value of 16.25, which compares favorably as an approximation of the

actual standard deviation of 17.53.

The steps required to calculate absolute percent error (APE) also follow the measures

name. Specifically:

1. Compute the forecast error or deviation by period. As with the MAD calculation,

the industry standard of actual minus forecast is used.

2. Calculate the percent error by dividing the forecast error by actual demand. In

period one this is achieved by dividing 10 by 110, which is 9.1%. This calculation

can be problematic when the actual demand is 0. When this occurs, most

organizations report the specific APE as infinity but substitutes a value of 100%.

Doing this facilitates subsequent MAPE and accuracy calculations.

3. Calculate the absolute value of this percentage by turning negative values

positive. Positive percentages remain unchanged. Using period three for

illustration purposes, note how the percent error of -5.3% becomes +5.3% upon

completion of this step.

Mean absolute percent error (MAPE) is a logical extension of the APE calculation. This

calculation starts by calculating the APEs for all periods. The arithmetic mean, often

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referred to simply as the mean, is then calculated from this data to create the MAPE. In

this example, the MAPE is 11.2%.

MAPE is the most common measure of forecast error used in industry. For positive

thinkers, it can be transformed into a forecast accuracy measure by subtracting it from

100%. The previous example would therefore represent 11.2% error, or 88.8% accuracy.

Forecast error measurements can be utilized to signal the need for an enhanced

forecasting methodology or to guide statistical safety stock calculations. This lesson

provided participants a variety of forecast error measurements, applicable in all

industries, that can be utilized for this purpose.

In this lesson, you calculated mean absolute deviation (MAD) and absolute percent

errors (APE). In addition, you examined the relationship of the normal curve distribution

as it relates to forecast errors and developing the mean absolute percent error (MAPE)

for any product forecast.

Supply chain performance can be severely compromised if forecast bias is allowed to

exist. As a result, every demand forecaster must understand the concept of bias, be

able to calculate bias measures, and interpret those measures to determine when bias

exists.

Discuss the concept of bias.

Calculate and detect forecast bias utilizing tracking signals.

Discuss the implications of forecast bias on supply chain performance.

As every demand pattern includes a random component, forecasters should expect that

forecast error will always exist. However, demand forecasts can be wrong in another

way. If the forecast error over time has a tendency to always be positive or a tendency

to always be negative, it is referred to as a biased forecast.

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The cumulative sum of the error is one way to detect bias. In an unbiased state, the

positive and negative errors should balance out to approximately zero. Values

significantly less than zero or significantly greater than zero are an indication of forecast

bias.

A very popular measure used to detect forecast bias is called a tracking signal. The

formula for this measure is

TS = errors/MAD

Where TS is the tracking signal, errors is actual demand minus forecasted demand, and

MAD is the mean absolute deviation.

The following guideline can be used to detect forecast bias:

If tracking signal is greater than 3 or is less than -3, bias exists.

Initially it may be confusing that two different sets of values can indicate forecast bias.

However, recall that consistent overselling or consistent underselling of the forecast are

both called forecast bias. Large negative tracking signals are an indication of consistent

underselling, while large positive values are indicative of overselling.

Conversely, any tracking signal values between -3 and 3 have little to no bias

associated with them.

Tracking signals are calculated for two sets of data to illustrate these guidelines. The

first table is characterized by a tracking signal of 0.37 and is clearly unbiased.

The second table of data is heavily biased and has a tracking signal of 7.0.

When forecast bias exists, company schedulers, planners, and management are

continually working with invalid demand and supply plans. As these plans are executed,

corrective action is required to overcome the bias condition. These corrective actions

can have serious financial impacts on the organization. Specifically, a large positive

tracking signal occurs when actual demand consistently exceeds the forecasted

demand. As a result, all supply plans are understated, safety stock inventory is totally

consumed, and expediting occurs throughout the supply chain. This could include rush

orders from suppliers, factory overtime, and premium freight charges. Inevitably, low

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inventory levels typically also generate customer backorders. This results in lost sales,

customer fines, and the potential loss of future sales.

Large negative tracking signals are also associated with poor performance. In this case

lower than expected customer demand creates excessive inventory levels. Inventory

carrying costs naturally rise. Examples include extra storage charges and higher than

expected inventory write-offs. This could be especially troublesome for food and

pharmaceutical products with expiry dating concerns.

Supply chain professionals must continually monitor the forecast process for forecast

bias. When detected, the root cause of the bias must be addressed and eliminated.

Supply chain performance is severely compromised when forecast bias is allowed to

exist. Consistent overselling of the demand forecast typically results in backorders or

excessive expediting costs. Conversely, poor inventory turns accompany sales results

that are chronically below forecast. Every demand forecaster should be capable of

calculating forecast bias measures and initiating the appropriate corrective action when

bias is detected.

In this lesson, you explored the concept of bias and its implications on supply chain

performance. In particular, you calculated and detected forecast bias utilizing tracking

signals.

This course provided quantitative demand forecasting techniques that are appropriate

for a large number of mature products sold today. In addition, the course discussed and

demonstrated forecast performance measures. This provides a quantitative basis for

evaluating the degree to which a demand forecast is value adding.

Specifically, you developed demand forecasts using averaging methods and single

exponential smoothing. These averaging methods include simple, moving, and

weighted moving techniques. You measured forecast performance along two major

dimensions. You also calculated mean absolute deviation, absolute percent error, and

mean absolute percent error as a measure of forecast error. Similarly, you detected

forecast bias by calculating and interpreting a tracking signal.

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Slide 40: Assessment

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