Chapter 6: Stats Project

This chapter was about The Binomial Probability Distribution and Related
Topics, in this project we will elaborate and show examples, of the terms and concepts
we have learned.
One of the terms we learned about was random variables. A random variable is a
quantitative variable x is the value that x takes on in a given experiment or
observation is a chance or random outcome. There are two different kinds of random
variables too, discrete and continuous. A discrete random variable can take on only a
finite number of values or a countable number of values. An example of a discrete
random variable is if you toss a coin 4 times and the number of heads obtained can be
0, 1, 2, 3, each of these has an individual probability of occurring. This means that
variable is taking on a countable number of values. There is also continuous random
variables, that can take on any of the countless number of values in a line interval. An
example of this is you can designateX as the height of a tree, so as the tree
continuously grows, X grows as well, which makes the variable any possibility of
numbers on the timeline interval of that tree's life span.
Another concept we learned about was probability distribution. Probability
distribution is an assignment of probabilities to each distinct value of a discrete random
variable or to each interval of values of a continuous random variable. One feature of a
probability distribution is that the probability distribution has a probability assigned to
each distinct value of the random variable. Another is the sum of all the assigned
probabilities must be 1. Another key feature of what we learned with probability
distributions is the mean and standard deviation. The mean tells us the average of the
probability distribution, it is the number that is most likely to occur. The standard
deviation tells us how spread out the data in a probability distribution is, it helps us
determine that if the data is more spread out then the more likely it is for each number
to occur. A few formulas we learned to calculate the mean and standard deviation of a
probability are, = xP(x ) , where is called the expected value of x. Another is,
= , is called the standard deviation of x. Expected value is another key
component of probability distribution is expected value. The expected value is the
number value you are expected to receive when placed in a trial or lottery type drawing.
To calculate expected value you have to multiply the prize by the chance of winning. We
then add this to all the other prizes multiplied by their probabilities.
A binomial experiment is defined by 4 key components. Firstly, a binomial
experiment can only have two outcomes, success and failure. Also, it must have a fixed
number of trials, and these trials must be independent. For these probabilities to be
independent, then the probability of success cannot change. These experiments find the
probability of success out of n trials.
 N, P, Q, and R are letters that represent different values/ideas. P represents the
probability of success. Q represents the probability of failure. N represents the number
of trials. And R represents the number of successful trials wanted.
There are many ways to calculate binomial distributions. The first is obviously the
formula. This is the hardest and longest way to calculate the probability of success. The
formula is P(r)=n!/r!(n-r)!. This is a daunting formula but there are other ways of solving
it such as a calculator. If you go to 2nd vars, binomialpdf or cdf then you can calculate
the same things. But with binomialcdf you can calculate total probability up to a certain
number of trials. Lastly, there is the table. This table shows all the values for all normal
probabilities. This is the easiest method and possibly the fastest. To use this table you
go to the N value you need then look at the side locate the correct number of trials you
want, look to the top find the correct probability. Lastly, bring your two fingers together
following a strait lines and they will connect on the probability of success.
As well as probability of success you can calculate mean and standard deviation
in binomial experiment. To calculate mean you have to multiply the number of trials by
the probability of success. To find standard deviation you square root the total number
of trials times the probability of success times the probability of failure.
In the Powerball problem that we had to solve for expected earnings, probability
of success, and answer a couple other questions. In Part A we had to find the expected
value and the amount we were in a sense donating. To calculate this we had to multiply
the probability of success by the value of each prize. You then add up all of these. Our
expected value is $0.23. This means that we effectively made a $0.77 contribution to
the state. Question B asked if the jackpot increased to $25,000,000 and there was only
one winner, compute your expected winnings if you buy one ticket. Does the probability
of winning change? The expected value increased to $0.30, but the probability of
winning does not change. Question C asked us to randomly calculate 10 sets of 6
numbers to simulate if we would win the jackpot. My group only had 4 sets of numbers
have any numbers right and only 2 sets had 2 correct numbers. We had no winning
sets. Question D asked us to find the probability of winning any prize at least once if you
buy 5 tickets. The probability of getting any prize was .0285, and we only had to win on
one ticket. Therefore we used our calculator, and went to 2nd vars, binomialcdf, and
typed in 5,.0285,0. We used 0 instead of 1 because that found us the probability of not
winning on any ticket. We then subtracted this number by 1 and got .135. This means
that we had a 13.5% chance of winning on at least one ticket.