5/10/2017 WorldpowersjostleinAfghanistan'snew'GreatGame'BBCNews

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WorldpowersjostleinAfghanistan'snew'GreatGame'
ByDawoodAzami
BBCWorldService,Kabul

12January2017 Asia

EPA

Afghanistan'sstrategiclandscapeischangingasregionalpowersforgelinkswiththe
Talibanandvietooutdoeachotherinwhat'sbeingseenasanew"GreatGame".

FifteenyearsaftertheUSledinterventioninAfghanistan,competitionforinfluencereminiscent
ofthatrivalrybetweentheRussianandBritishempiresinthe19thandearly20thCenturies,and
thatduringtheColdWarinthe1980sisintensifying,complicatinganalreadyprecarious
securitysituation.

Suspicionandmistrustremainthebiggestobstacletostabilityinstrategicallylocated
Afghanistan,whichhasthepotentialtodestabilisethewiderregion.

Pakistan,consideredthemainsupporteroftheAfghanTaliban,hasbeenaccusedofplayinga
doublegame.ButAfghanandWesternofficialsaswellasTalibansourceshavealsospoken
abouttheTaliban'sclandestinelinkswithIranforthepastfewyears.

AndrecentlyitemergedthatRussia'stieswiththeTalibanwerewarmingtoo.

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AFP

InDecemberthetopUScommanderinAfghanistan,GenJohnNicholson,criticisedRussiaand
Iranforestablishinglinkswiththemilitants,whichbothcountrieshaveconfirmed.

TheUShasalsopursuedcontactswiththeTalibaninrecentyearsbutthoseeffortshavenot
broughtpeace.Severalregionalpowers,mostnotablyRussiaandIran,criticisetheUSandits
alliesfor"failing"inachievingitsoriginalobjectivesofeliminatingviolentextremismanddrugsin
Afghanistan.

Threemajorfactorshavecontributedtotheshiftingofregionalalliances:

theemergenceofsocalledIslamicStateinAfghanistan

changesintheapproachofthenewAfghangovernment

andtensionsbetweentheUSandregionalplayerssuchasRussia,China,Iranand
Pakistan.

FearsoverIslamicState
TheemergenceofISinAfghanistanthegroupannouncedthecreationofitsKhorasan
ProvincebranchinJanuary2015providedRussiaandIranwiththeopportunitytomake
"contacts"withtheTaliban.

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AP

TheUS'sdecreasingmilitaryroleinAfghanistanandaresurgentTalibanhadcontributedto
creatingasenseinregionalcapitalsthatAfghanistan'sfatewasupforgrabs.Thepolitical
infightinginthecentralgovernmentinKabulalsoraisedconcernsaboutpoliticalstabilityboth
insideandoutsidethecountry.

Overthepasttwoyears,alarminRussiaandformerSovietCentralAsianrepublicsgrewas
militancyspreadtonorthernAfghanprovincesclosetotheirbordersaswellastoChina's
Xinjiangregion.

ConspiracytheoriesinRussia,IranandChinapaintISasanAmericanorWesterncreation
aimedatdestabilisingtheircountries.

GETTYIMAGES

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TheemergenceofISposedaseriouschallengetothesupremacyoftheTalibanbutalso
encouragedIran,ChinaandRussia,whowerefearfulofISexpansion,toreviewtheirpolicies
andopendialoguewiththeTaliban.

Russia'sTaliban'channels'

SofteningitsapproachtowardstheTalibanisadramaticandunexpectedshiftforRussia.

MoscowhasforyearsopposedtheTaliban,callingthemterrorists,andsupportedtheanti
Taliban"NorthernAlliance"intheAfghancivilwarofthe1990s.

ButfacedwithacommonenemyintheshapeofIS,Russiahaschangeditsmind.

InDecember2015,aseniorRussiandiplomatdeclaredthat"theTalibaninterestobjectively
coincideswithours"inthefightagainstISandthathiscountryandtheTaliban"havechannels
forexchanginginformation".

Talibansourcesalsoconfirmedthatthegroup'srepresentativesmetRussiansinsideRussia
and"other"countriesseveraltimesoverthepasttwoyears.

ButMoscow'scurrentassertivenessinAfghanistancanalsobeseenasatactictoputpressure
ontheUSandtoenhanceitsroleandregionalinfluence.

TalibancontactswithRussiaandIranmightalsohelpPakistantodistributeanddilutethe
internationalpressureitisunderforhostingtheAfghanTalibanleadership.

IranandtheTalibanmakeup

SharedanimositytowardsIShasalsobroughttheSunniTalibanclosertotheirhistoricnemesis,
Iran,aShiapowerhouse,whoseclericalregimehadpreviouslyviewedtheAfghanTalibanasa
majorthreat.

AP

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LikeRussia,IransupportedtheantiTalibangroupsinthe1990s.Tehranalsocooperatedwith
theUSledinternationalcoalitiontotoppletheTalibanregimeinlate2001.But,atthesametime,
TalibansourcessayIransentthemamessagethatitwaswillingtosupportthemagainstthe
US.

WhentheTalibaninsurgencygainedmomentuminAfghanistan,Iranpublicallysupportedthe
USbackedAfghangovernmentbutreportedlykeptalinktotheTalibanalive.Sincethe
emergenceofIS(whichconsidersShiatobeinfidels),theTehranTalibanrelationshiphas
deepened.

AdelegationfromtheAfghanTaliban'spoliticalofficeinQatarvisitedIraninmidMay2015
wherethetwosidesdiscussed,amongotherthings,waystocounterISinAfghanistan.

TheTalibansupremeleader,MullahAkhtarMansour,wasreportedlyonhiswaybackfromIran
whenhewaskilledinaUSdronestrikeinPakistan'sBalochistanprovinceinMay2016.

Afghanistan's'imbalanced'foreignpolicy
TheforeignpolicyoftheAfghangovernmentestablishedinSeptember2014hasalsoaltered
politicalcalculations.

HawksinRussia,IranandChinaconsiderPresidentAshrafGhani'sgovernmentwithsuspicion
andseeitastooweaktodealwiththemultiplesecuritychallengesitfaces.

TheyalsoviewMrGhaniastooclosetotheUScomparedwithhispredecessor,HamidKarzai.

AndsomeofMrGhani'sdecisionshaveraisedeyebrowsinregionalcapitals.

GETTYIMAGES

Soonaftertakingoffice,hesaidthatimprovingrelationswithPakistanwasatoppriority.While
ignoringIndia,Pakistan'sarchrivalbutAfghanistan'straditionalally,thenewpresidentmade

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severalpositivegesturestoappeaseIslamabad.Butthatrapprochementendedwithinayear
andKabulandIslamabadrevertedtohurlingaccusationsateachother.

MrGhanithenrevivedAfghanistan'scloserelationshipwithIndiaandonafewoccasions
seemedtobetauntingPakistanwhilespeakinginIndia.

HisgovernmentalsopledgedsupportfortheSaudiledmilitarycoalitionagainstShiaHouthi
rebelsinYemen.ThatgesturewasnotreceivedwellinTehran.

Theserivalriesunderlinethenatureandscaleofpossibletroublesahead.

TheTalibanasTrojanhorse?

TheAfghanTalibanhadbeenlargelydependentontheirsupportbaseinPakistan,acountry
wheretheirleadershipisallegedlyliving.FearsarenowgrowinginAfghanistanthattheTaliban
arebeingusedasaTrojanhorsebystateactorsinthreemainways:

toputpressureontheAfghangovernmentanditsUS/Natoallies

toincreasetheinfluenceofindividualcountries

andtooutdooneanotherinaregionalcompetition.

AP

TheTalibanseetheirexpandingregionalportfolioanddiplomaticpushasevidenceoftheir
"legitimatestruggle"insomewaysmoreimportantforthemthanmaterialassistance.

ThepricetheTalibanaskhasgenerallybeenforthesecountriestohelpthemridAfghanistanof

foreignforces.InreturntheTalibanofferthefollowingassurances:

nottoallowIStoestablishabaseinAfghanistan
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topreventforeignmilitantsfromusingAfghanistanagainstthesestates

tokeeptheirwarfocusedonAfghanistan.

Sowherewillanew'GreatGame'lead?

AP

MajorregionalplayersseemtohaverealisedthattheycannotrelyontheUSalonetosortout
Afghanistanandstabilisethewiderregion.Theyarekeentomakethemselvesmuchmore
relevantandarelookingtoplayamoreassertiverole.Theyalsoinsistthattheir"contacts"with
theTalibanareaimedatpromotingregionalsecurity.

Afghanistanhasbeenthesceneofforeigninterventionsforalongtime.TheBritishandRussian
Empiresjockeyedforcontrolduringthe19thandearly20thCenturies.Inthe1980stheUSled
WesternalliancehelpedPakistanprovideweaponsandfundingtoAfghanmujahideenfightingto
endSovietoccupation.

Recentdevelopmentsshowtheextentofanew"GreatGame"takingshape.

AndonceagainAfghanciviliansarecaughtinthecrossfire.

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MOD

Thepastfewdecadeshaveshownthatnocountryhasthemeanstoimposeitswillin
Afghanistanonitsown,butmanyactorshavecreateddisorder.

BecauseabigpartofthechaosinAfghanistanisrootedinthewiderregion,thesolutionneeds
cooperationandawiderconsensus.Onepositiveoutcomeoftheshiftingregionalalliances
mightbeamoreinclusiveapproachtowardsstabilisingAfghanistananditsneighbourhood.

ManyAfghansarehopefulthatRussianleaderVladimirPutinandincomingUSPresidentDonald
Trumpwillimprovebilateralrelations,withapositiveimpactonthesituationinAfghanistan.

Formanydecadesduringitsrecentpast,whenitwasleftalone,Afghanistanwasoneofthe
mostpeacefulandstablecountries.HistoryshowsthatwhatAfghanistanneedsislessforeign
interference,notmoreofit.

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