Magazine May/June 1998 pgs.

28-31

Neural Networks
for
Monitoring, Control & Optimization
Paul Van Buskirk
Quality Monitoring & Control

Abstract

Advances in AI modeling techniques, such as artificial neural networks, e-Model,

genetic algorithms, VB-Model, etc., provide a robust tool for monitoring, control
and optimization of a system. Monitoring is used for data verification, fault
detection, forecasting and/or prediction. Total system or subsystem performance
can be ranked when combined with statistical methods. When variables are
adjustable, the system can be regulated to provide the "Very-Best" results
through direct or fuzzy-logic control and optimization methods. This is not for the
future; this is the capability that personal computers and artificial intelligence
provide today.

Introduction

Model development is an investment. Recent advances in PC and AI systems

provide a significant reduction in this investment. And, there are numerous model
applications that will produce a return-of-investment. This article gives an
overview of model applications, available now, to improve the profitability, quality,
safety or environmental controls of a process. Extensions of these applications
can be made to any industry that has data.

This article highlights neural networks as a model development tool, due to its
widespread use and success. Other AI modeling methods can be used. The
model developer should determine the best technique for a given application.

Background

The advantage of AI modeling techniques, such as artificial neural networks

(ANN), are that a considerable amount of time can be saved in model generation
when data is available. Development of an equation based (fundamental) model
for multivariable non-linear systems can be virtually impossible with certain
processes. Furthermore, a fundamental model may require hundreds if not
hundreds of thousands of equations. The number of calculations and resulting
CPU times can exceed the actual system response in real time. Conversely, ANN
models are computationally efficient. The code required typically does not exceed
three pages, even for large systems.
ANN model development is data intensive. A database, or spreadsheet, contains
the data that the ANN model uses. A column in the spreadsheet represents a
single variable. A column can be used as an independent "input" or as a
dependent "output" variable. With neural nets, multiple outputs are allowed. How
the output variable(s) change with changes in the input variables is what the
neural net "learns". A row of data across all used variables is an event the neural
net will use to learn the cause-and-effect dependence. The ANN model then
"trains" until the error between the predicted and actual value, across selected
rows of data, is reduced to a satisfactory level. An introduction into how neural-
networks work is provided in reference (1).

ANN model generation does not come without risk. The ANN model developer
needs to follow certain data screening guidelines to ensure integrity in the data,
please see the General recommendations for the AI model developer. The work
involved with data screening can occupy the bulk of the time in ANN (or any
other) model development. The ANN model software provider will also supply
guidelines for software use, data screening, and model development. Numerous
technical publications address issues related to ANN model data preparation, PC
AI is an excellent resource for these articles.

General Recommendations for the AI Model Developer.

All cause-and-effect variables are measurable and used.

Redundant variables are minimized or eliminated.
The variable data is uniformly distributed with sufficient points.
Data sampling times shows the actual system response.
The data is properly screened for outliers and redundancy.
True variability exists in the data and all data is valid.
Model accuracy requirements do not surpass measurement accuracy and
variability.
Model prediction will not be extrapolated in any variable dimension.

When these guidelines are followed, an accurate and robust ANN model can be
developed that can be used for multiple and strategic purposes. A general
overview of these model applications is provided in AI model applications and
utilization.

AI Model Application and Utilization.

Sensor/data error and fault detection.

Prediction and forecasting.
Sensitivity or stability analysis.
Equipment or sub-system performance monitoring.
Total process or system indexing (comparison performance monitoring).
Control(s) monitoring.
Multivariable non-linear process/system control.
 Multivariable non-linear process/system optimization.

The applications of a system model are not limited to the items listed. Endless
possibilities exist. End use will be as varied as the personnel and industries that
develop or utilize the model. The applications listed are available now, through
numerous software providers. Implementation will provide a technology
advantage, with benefits that improve profit, quality, environmental and safety
controls.

As shown above, applications of an ANN model can range from sensor & data
verification to forecasting to full process optimization. In most cases the required
ANN model(s) for these applications can be developed from the same database.
For a given process or system, these applications should be used together.

This approach provides constant monitoring of the sensors, equipment, controls,

and total system performance. Deterioration in the performance of any
component in a system can then be quickly pinpointed and corrected. As a result,
the stability of the process will be improved, providing an increased utilization of
the control and optimization applications. Maximum utilization of the control and
optimization applications will increase the process profit and quality. Additionally,
safety and environmental goals will be maintained and improved.

The following provides a brief discussion of selected items as listed in the AI

Model Applications and Utilization:

Utilization of ANN models for sensor validation and fault detection is in common
use. A reliable fault detection technique that uses several AI modeling tools is
described in reference (2). This application is most effective when all sensors are
monitored as part of a preventative maintenance program. The keys to
successful process control and optimization implementation are reliable and
accurate sensors.

Sensor Error Meter provides an example of a sensor validation and error

detection application.

This application shows a typical sensor monitoring system. The lists on the left
are the various sensor names. The box graphs show the sensor errors, in
percentage. The top graph shows the current error, the bottom graph shows the
average error. Only the top four sensors with the maximum errors are given in
this example.
Prediction is primarily used for forecasting. Applications include market analysis,
sales projections, product properties, process variable inferred values, etc.
Reference (3) is a good starting point for the utilization of ANN models in the
process industries. There are also several articles in past issues of PC AI
Magazine. The major use of ANN models in the process industries is in the
prediction mode, either real-time or for off-line analysis and troubleshooting.

Sensitivity analysis is used to determine the important variables in a process.

This provides a fundamental understanding of the process in terms of key
variable rankings to control a process result. Numerical derivatives (D Output/ D
Input) of the ANN model provides the sensitivity results. Most ANN software
providers furnish this feature. Sensitivity analysis is classically the first step
towards implementing supervisory controls into a process or system. Numerical
derivatives of a process provide what is termed the gain array, which is the
starting point for multivariable control and optimization.

Equipment performance monitoring can be applied through the use of several

approaches. A direct approach is to develop an AI model to determine the
performance index of the equipment. The calculated index from the AI model is
then monitored to determine the performance decay rate. From the decay rate
preventive maintenance requirements are determined using "rule-based" AI
technologies. The Equipment Performance Meter shows a typical screen. This
 type of approach can be
used for the majority or
process equipment
designs and subsystems.

Equipment
Performance Meter

This graphic shows a

typical equipment
performance meter. The
example provided is for a
compressor monitoring
system. The index
monitored is the
compressor efficiency
ratio, please see graph.
The graph provides a run
chart of compressor
operations. Efficiency ratio decay is used to predict maintenance requirements.
Other data gives average and current operating conditions.
Total process indexing provides a single auditing measurement to monitor the
performance of a process or system. This method combines the sensitivity of a
process with statistical process control (SPC). The auditing measure, "Process
Index", is calculated by the following equation (4):

Where xi = data point evaluated at ith sampling of input variable x.

Fi = ANN model prediction at ith sampling point.

= Target input variable setting.

s s = Standard deviation.

= 2.71828182846.

The exponential term is the normalized Gaussian distribution function. The

Process Index weights the sensitivities of a process with this distribution function.
Input variables with high sensitivities will have a larger impact on the Process
Index than those with low sensitivities (for the same departure from the target
values).

The Process Index provides focus for the variables that most affect stability or
quality in operations. The index value is scaled from 100% (ideal) to 0%
(unacceptable). The index should be configured as a run chart to monitor total
process performance. An example is provided below.

Process Index for Polymer Manufacture

This Plant Index example shows the results of an analysis for polymer
manufacture. The top graph provides the ANN model's prediction versus the
measured product melt index (MI). The MI is a polymer property used for sales
specification. The highlighted list gives the ANN model input variables. Prod_MI
is the modeled, or output, variable. The four top factors that contribute to a Plant
Index reading of 64.65% are listed on an instantaneous and average basis. The
Plant Index individual values are also listed. In this example Recycle_Flow
 contributes 16.01% from
the product being
produced off targeted
values, i.e. a Plant Index
of 100% is ideal.

Control monitoring provides an application technology that gives the best pairings
of controls in a process. With a process that can be regulated, certain variables
can be independently manipulated, termed control inputs. These control inputs
are adjusted to control certain system requirements and/or specifications, termed
control outputs. Control monitoring provides the best pairing of manipulated-to-
controlled variables.

The technology is based on an ANN model to generate the gain array (from
process sensitivities). Minimum interaction of manipulated-to-controlled variables
is the goal (5). The maximum performance occurs when interactions are
eliminated. The performance indicator is named the "Stability Index". A value of
one is ideal. Negative values indicate an uncontrollable control scheme. High
positive values indicate a system that is marginal. Multivariable control analyses
shows an industrial application of this technique.
 Multivariable Control
Analyses

The control monitor

application, as shown
below, provides the best
pairings for process
regulation. This example
is an industrial distillation
column. Distillation
columns are used for
separating a single
stream, with two or more
components, into two
product streams of
higher purity and value.

In this example, the

control inputs are
Dist_Flow, Btm_Flow and Reflux_Flow. These labels are for the two product
streams termed distillate and bottom, and for a stream that is returned (refluxed)
back into the column. The control output variables are Btm_Conc, Dist_Conc and
Column_DP. These terms are the bottom concentration, distillate concentration,
and column differential pressure, respectively. The product streams worth is
based on their concentrations, and high column differential pressure can lead to
a process upset. Control of these variables is required for successful operations.
The goal is to control this process near maximum, with variable, rates.

Control (quality) monitor results show the best pairing combinations (see Input to
Output Pairings). The Stability Index value is in a range that indicates these
pairings will be stable. Therefore, with this multivariable control configuration,
interactions will be minimal due to set point (target value) changes and external
disturbances.
Multivariable non-linear process control and optimization methods directly follow
from the methods presented. Once a neural net model is developed, the
equations can be imported into several optimizers, such as Excels solver.
Scientist , by MicroMath provides a wide range of optimization methods that
directly interfaces with several spreadsheet programs.

However, for "real-time" control and optimization applications, a time dependent-

dynamic ANN model is needed. Reference 5 gives an overview for several
"adaptive" or other state-of-the-science methods. Additionally, multi-variable
linear and non-linear process control and optimization methods are currently
available from several software developers. Again, PC AI is an excellent resource
in this field.

Conclusions

A system model provides a base for numerous applications. These applications

can be used to improve the stability and control of a process or system. This will
improve profit, quality, safety and environmental objectives. Applications using
available technologies include sensor, equipment, control and total process
monitoring. This can lead to successful implementation of supervisory controls
and optimization applications to maintain maximum performance.

PC & AI systems and technologies allow for rapid and effective model generation
and application. As demonstrated, these technologies are currently available and
can be implemented now.

References:

Bhagat, P., "An Introduction to Neural Nets.", Chem. Eng. Progress, p 55 (Aug
1990)
Smith, S., "SDIs e: Real Time Prediction in the Chemical Industry", PC AI, p 18
(Jan/Feb 1998)

Chitra, S., "Use Neural Networks for Problem Solving", Chem. Eng. Progress, p
45 (April 1993)

Van Buskirk, J., "Modeling of a High-Density Polyethylene (HDPE) Process",

Texas A&M University, Masters Thesis (Dec 1996)

Ogunnaike, B. and W. H. Ray, Process Dynamics, Modeling, and Control , Oxford

University Press, 1994