YEAR (X) DEMAND(Y)

1 7
2 9
3 5
4 9
5 13
6 8
7 12
8 13
9 9
10 11
11 7

a) Plot the data. Do you see any trend, seasonal or cyclical variables?

14

12

10

DEMAND(Y)
6

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11

No, the data appear to have no consistent pattern.

b) Starting year 4 and going to year 12, forecast demand using a 3 year moving average
YEAR 1 2 3 4 5
DEMAND 7 9 5 9 13
3 YEAR MOVING AVERAGE 7 7.7

c) Starting year 4 and going to year 12, forecast demand using a 3 year moving average with weig
c) Starting year 4 and going to year 12, forecast demand using a 3 year moving average
with weights .1, .3, and .6, using .6 for the most recent year.
YEAR 1 2 3 4 5
DEMAND 7 9 5 9 13
3 YEAR MOVING AVERAGE 7 7.7
3 YEAR WEIGHTED 6.4 7.8
d) Plot all the forecasts against the actual demand data which seems to give the best result(s)?

14

12

10

8 DEMA
3 YEA
6
3 YEA
4

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 FORECAST

The three-year moving average appears to give better results.

 DEMAND(Y)

moving average
6 7 8 9 10 11 FORECAST
8 12 13 9 11 7
9 10 11 11 11.3 11 9

g average with weights .1, .3, and .6, using .6 for the most recent year.
g average

6 7 8 9 10 11 FORECAST
8 12 13 9 11 7
9 10 11 11 11.3 11 9
11 9.6 10.9 12.2 10.5 10.6 8.4
the best result(s)?

DEMAND
3 YEAR MOVING AVERAGE
3 YEAR WEIGHTED

ORECAST