Insights

into childrens understanding of the mathematics content area

There is not one correct way to look at probability and because of this there are many ways of introducing probability and chance into the classroom. It is important to use a variety of different strategies, along
with visual aids and concrete materials to assist in students understanding of probability, chance and possible outcomes which can come from a trial (Aspinwall & Shaw, 2000). Incorporating a hands on approach
during classroom instruction through the use of marbles, coins, coloured spinners, die, cards and other concrete materials allows students to develop their probabilistic thinking visually, and challenge any pre-
existing concepts towards chance and probability (Frykolm, 2001). Tree diagrams can be used to explore the sample space and possible outcomes from an experiment and allow students to make a natural
progression from probability into statistics through analysing the data in this way (Kader & Mamer, 2008). Through implementing different strategies, and allowing students the opportunity to explore a range of
experiments allows for scaffolding of student learning (Aspinwall & Tarr, 2002). It is important that students are given the opportunity to undertake numerous trials and experiments in order to acquire accurate
results. This allows students to gather a range of outcomes and explore numerous sample spaces as a way of solidifying their understanding of probability and dispel any misconceptions surrounding
equipropability (Aspinwall & Tarr, 2002; Kader & Mamer, 2008).

Incorporating whole class teacher lead discussion into assessment, challenges students to reconsider some of the ideas and misconceptions which are deeply embedded into their thinking, therefore it is
important for educators to encourage discourse and prolonged discussion in order for students to develop new ideas and clarify their thinking (Vidakovic, Berenson & Brandsma, 1998). In addition to class
discussion, assessment can be generated through sample work and observing students as they engage in problematic tasks. Such tasks need to be designed to stimulate student thinking around particular
probabilistic ideas, whereby teachers are able to make inferences about students development and thinking strategies (Maher, 1998).


Critical discussion regarding links with curriculum documentation

The content descriptors found in the Victorian Curriculum outline a number of proficiencies (understanding, fluency, problem solving and reasoning) from which teachers are to strive to achieve with their
students depending on the year level. These have been developed in conjunction with research into each particular field of study. In regards to level four statistics and probability, students are required to have a
certain level of understanding in the subject at the time of completion of the unit of work. There has been extensive research into teaching statistics and probability to children, in particular chance and data.
Research has shown that in order for students to develop their probabilistic thinking and combat any misconceptions they may have towards equiprobability, they need to be able to explore a range of strategies
and experiments in order to discover sample space, the probability of an even occurring and make probability comparisons through a series of tasks (Kader & Mamer, 2008; Jones et al., 1997). The Victorian
Curriculum addresses these learning points through incorporating data representation and interpretation in particular students need to select and trial methods for data collection, including survey questions
and recording sheets ("Level 4 - Victorian Curriculum" (VCMSP178), 2016). Whilst the Victorian Curriculum aims to develop students understanding in many areas related to statistics and probability, is does not
make reference to the way in which students are best taught in that area. Many studies have shown that students are able to grasp the concept of probability and chance best when they are able to be hands on
in their learning, making it important to implement a range of strategies to aid learning, including visual aids and concrete materials (Aspinwall & Shaw, 2000; Frykolm, 2001). It is important to incorporate such
teaching methods into the curriculum as it provides educators with strategies that they can integrate into their teaching.





MATHEMATICS UNIT PLANNER Teacher/Team:
Topic: What are the chances? Year Level: 4 Term: 2 Week: 3-5 Date:
Intended Learning Focus (taken directly from Victorian Curriculum documents):
Content strand(s): Statistics and Probability

Sub-strand(s): Chance

Level content descriptions:
Describe possible everyday events and order their chances of occurring (VCMSP175)
Identify everyday events where one cannot happen if the other happens (VCMSP176)
Identify events where the chance of one will not be affected by the occurrence of the other (VCMSP177)

Proficiency strand(s):

Understanding Fluency Problem Solving Reasoning

The results of trial naturally vary, particularly with small samples, but as the
sample size increases the results get more reliable. Systematically record the results of experiments or data collection using tally charts
Represent results of experiments or data collection (category data) in tables, picture graphs and
Category data comes from sorting things into groups based on an attribute. column graphs. Create pie charts when the circle is pre-divided equally.
Category data can be displayed in different ways to highlight differences (e.g.
picture graphs or column graphs) and proportions of the whole (pie charts).


Common misconceptions (related to the mathematical Key skills to develop and practise (observable capabilities) Equipment / resources:
idea/topic): Spinners (online)
Using appropriate language to correctly describe the chance Marbles
Equi-probibility bias: belief that all outcomes are of an event occurring Interactive whiteboard
equally likely. Die
Distinguishing between the words 'impossible', 'unlikely',
Subjective reasoning rather than quantitative 'likely' and 'certain' when describing the outcome of a Certain and uncertain event cards
reasoning chance event Cups
Coloured blocks
Independence of results: recent outcomes of an Recognising and using the chance terms: 'even chance', 'fair
independent result influence the next outcome. chance', 'equally likely chance'

Probability usually plays out in the short term the Comparing the outcomes of chance experiments involving
law of small numbers outcomes that are equally likely

Comparing the outcomes of chance experiments involving

outcomes that are not equally likely
 Key vocabulary:
Probability vocabulary (Certain, possible, likely

impossible, equal chance).

Fair or Unfair

Outcomes

Tally/graph/chart results

Experiments

MATHEMATICAL TUNING IN INVESTIGATIONS SESSION REFLECTION & MAKING ADAPTATIONS ASSESSMENT
FOCUS (The Hook) . CONNECTIONS SESSION STRATEGIES


Brainstorm: Word wall & Certain and uncertain events Whole class discussion Enabling prompts
Session 1 Probability line Monitor class discussion. Pay
In pairs students work through Ask students to share their Whats the correct use of the close attention to language and
Understanding the language Watch Chance YouTube clip a set of cards describing a results of the certain and word? terminology used when
and terminology of probability. https://www.youtube.com/wat variety of events, classifying uncertain events cards. Record describing probability concepts.
ch?v=TedbpetdzBE them under the headings: findings on the board. - Encourage students to refer to
word wall and probability line. During small group activity pick
As a whole group brainstorm - The event is certain to Focus questions: a focus group and work directly
words that can be used to happen with them. Record student
describe the chance of an even - The event will likely - If you had to place the Extending prompts progress on student assessment
occurring (e.g. likely, unlikely, happen event on the sheets.
possible, impossible etc.) - The event is probability line where - Can you come up with
impossible would it go? your own?
Create a class probability line
and sort words along the line In the same pairs ask students - If you had to label the Students to create one or two
(e.g. rarely through to certain) to consider open-ended probability line with a open-ended scenarios, which
scenarios (see below) and numerical value from they can later share with the
Use different coloured post its record their thinking. 0 to 100 what would class. Need to take into
to represent chance in a it look like? And consideration the responses the
percentage format (e.g. zero, Example scenario: where would each class may give in response to
1/2 , 1 and 100%). event be placed? the scenarios. Need to include
- You ask the teacher a question correct vocabulary in relation to
Keep the probability line and and she replies maybe. What chance and probability.
word wall in a visible area of might the question have been? Discuss responses to scenarios.
the classroom for students to Create opportunities for
refer back to throughout the students to discuss and debate
unit. their findings.

 What are the chances? How many marbles in the bag? Whole class discussion Enabling prompts Summative assessment
Session 2 throughout the lesson.
In a bag place sets of the same In small groups students are Students to present their - How are you Feedback taken from one on
Develop an understanding that objects in different colours given a bag of marbles. They do findings to the class. Discuss if recording which one questioning with students
probability is an independent (counters, marbles, blocks). not know how many marbles they were able to use marbles you are as well as contributions to class
event, whereby no one event Each set is to contain three are in the bag but there are two predictions as to which colour drawing out each discussion to monitor student
affects the outcome of another different colours (5 green, 2 different colours. marble was going to be drawn time? understanding.
event. blue, 3 red) each time. - Why is it important to
Students are asked to draw out put back the marble
Demonstrate to the students by 10 marbles and record they As a class write up a summary before you draw the Collect students work samples
pulling out one item from a set results, each time replacing the about the probability of next one? at the completion of the lesson
without looking. marble after they have drawn. choosing one colour marble to see students understanding
over anther. Put up on word Extending prompts of the marble bag activity.
Repeat this a number of times, Students need to try and work wall so accessible to the class.
returning the object that has out how many of each colour - How would you
been pulled out each time. marble there is in the bag based predict what colour
on their results. marble was in the bag
Tally the results on the board if you knew there
and ask students probing Encourage students to do were 3 different
questions: experiments to find out how colours in the bag but
many marbles. you didnt know the
- Which counter was I amount?
most likely to pull
out? - How could you
- What was the chance change your method
of pulling out a green without changing the
one? game?
- How many out of 10
chances was there?
- Can you put that into
a fraction/percentage
Online Spinner Co-operative small group Whole class discussion Enabling prompts
Session 3 http://www.mathplayground.c activities
om/probability.html Discuss the results as a class Focus question: Observe and take notes on the
Understanding possible Students move around the and make comparisons with the conclusions the students drew
outcomes through theoretical Set the spinner to four colours, room in small groups (3-4 per station activities from earlier in - What do you think makes and document any interesting
probability and experiments and ask the students to predict group) participating in the the lesson. something fair/unfair? statements. Pay particular
which colour will come up most different activities set up. attention to the understanding
often and why. Spin the spinner Through group discussion Discuss the meaning of fair from each of the activities.
5 times and tally the results in a At each station students need students need to decide prior to beginning the game,
table. to: whether the games were fair or and review the term when
- Make predictions unfair and explain why. asking students to create an
Ask students if they would like -Tally results & record winner. argument.
to change their predictions - Discuss game was fair or
based on the results and spin unfair? Extending prompts
another 5 times.
Spinner game Focus question:
 Tally outcomes and discuss Player A wins if the spinner - What is it exactly that
results with the students. lands on one of 2 colours. makes the game
Player B wins if the spinner fair/unfair
Change the spinner to two lands on one of 3 colours.
different and two of the same Challenge students to make an
colours (to make it unfair) Coin Toss argument based on the data
and repeat the process. Discuss Using iPad: National Library of and game rules as to whether
the reasoning behind which Virtual Manipulatives the game is fair or not, and ask
colours come up most often http://nlvm.usu.edu/en/nav/fra students to write a short
and why. mes_asid_305_g_3_t_5.html?fr paragraph outlining their
om=grade_g_3.html argument.

Rolling Dice

How many outcomes? Drop It activity Whole group Enabling prompts
Session 4 Exploring the likelihood of
Show the Ted-Ed YouTube: The various outcomes occurring. Have students predict what will Students who are having
Understanding possible Last Banana happen if they pool their data difficulties grasping the task are
outcomes through theoretical https://www.youtube.com/wat Cup Toss: from the drop it activity. encouraged to visit the below
probability and experiments ch?v=Kgudt4PXs28 website:
Ask students to list all the Pool the data and compute the
Pausing at key points to discuss possible ways that the cup three ratios (upside down, right http://www.bbc.co.uk/schools/
ideas: could land if they tossed it in side up, and on the side) to the mathsfile/shockwave/games/fis
the air and let it land on the total number of tosses. h.html
- Dice game how many floor.
outcomes? Discuss
- Using a lattice Which of the possibilities
diagram to map out (upside down, right side up, or Focus questions: Extending prompts
the outcomes on its side) do they think is What did you learn?
most and least likely? Why? What other possible Students to finish watching Ted-
answers are there? Ed YouTube clip as it discusses
Are there any other using fractions to discuss
Ask students to drop the cup possibilities? outcomes. Ask students to use
from the same height (no Is there another way fractions to describe the
variables) 20 times to work that out? outcomes of the drop it activity.
How can you do this
Students to record their another way and still
answers and report back in get the same
whole class discussion. answer/result/respon
ses?

Session 5 Whole Class activity Fair or Rock paper scissors Whole class reflection Enabling prompts
Unfair Assess students ability to sort
Understanding whether a game Introduce activity with a Compare the results. - Can you explain this data using graphs.
is fair/ unfair Explain the game and start demonstration of the game: task to me?
discussion of outcomes, and rock, paper, scissors. Discuss: During rock, paper, scissors
how many possible outcomes - Is the game fair? - How could you check activity work with a focus group
there are per coin toss. Divide the class into pairs this? and record student
(player A and player B) and - Do both players have understanding on student
Three students toss 2 coins have them play the game 18 an equal chance of assessment sheet.
record points according to the times. winning in any round? - Can you use what you
following rules: (Yes) know to solve this?
Use a grid to graph the wins of
Player A gets 1 point if the coin player A in red (how many A - How many different
toss results in two heads players won one game, two outcomes are there?
Player B gets 1 point if the toss games, etc.) Extending prompts
results in two tails Record the possible outcomes
Do the same for all B players in in a diagram - How could you work
Player C gets 1 point if the toss a different colour. out the percentage of
results are mixed (one head, each outcome?
one tail). Using a graph of their choice
(column, bar, picture graph) - Could you create a pie
The game is over after 20 students need to graph their graph to represent
tosses. The player who has the data. your data?
most points wins.