Nat Hazards (2015) 75:95118

DOI 10.1007/s11069-014-1303-4

ORIGINAL PAPER

Agent-based modeling and simulations of land-use

and land-cover change according to ant colony
optimization: a case study of the Erhai Lake Basin, China

Xu QuanLi Yang Kun Wang GuiLin Yang YuLian

Received: 2 March 2014 / Accepted: 17 June 2014 / Published online: 3 July 2014
Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht 2014

Abstract The land-use structure and ecological service functions of the Erhai Lake Watershed
are being altered by rapid socioeconomic development and urbanization, which will ultimately
lead to the generation and aggravation of agricultural and urban non-point source pollution over
the entire region. Therefore, the relationships between human activities and land-use/land-cover
changes (LUCCs) must be studied to support scientific decisions regarding reasonable land
planning and land use. This paper combines geographic information system technology for
spatial analysis and the ant colony optimization artificial intelligence algorithm. Moreover, this
study applies agent-based modeling to establish a spatiotemporal process model for LUCCs that
effectively simulates the dynamic land-use changes in the basin. A selection is first made and
evaluated for dynamic land-use change impact factors. Then, the agent classes and their rules in
the LUCC processes are established. The program is designed using the Java programming
language, and the model is implemented based on the Repast modeling platform. Finally, the
models are validated, and the simulated results are analyzed and discussed. Some conclusions
were drawn from the experiments, as well as some policies on land use were suggested.

Keywords LUCC  Simulation model  Watershed water environmental effect 

Ant colony algorithm  Agent-based modeling  Spatial analysis  Repast

X. QuanLi  Y. Kun (&)

School of Remote Sensing and Information Engineering, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430079, China
e-mail: 1784285@qq.com; kmdcynu@163.com
X. QuanLi
e-mail: go2happiness@163.com

X. QuanLi
School of Tourism and Geographic Science, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming 650500, China

X. QuanLi  Y. Kun  W. GuiLin  Y. YuLian

GIS Technology Engineering Research Centre for West-China Resources and Environment of
Educational Ministry, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming 650500, China

Y. Kun  W. GuiLin  Y. YuLian

School of Information Science and Technology, Yunnan Normal University, Kunming 650500, China

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1 Introduction

The Erhai Lake Basin is located in the Dali Bai Autonomous prefecture of Yunnan
Province and lies between three river systems: the Lan-cang River, the Jina River and the
Yuan-jiang River. The geographic coordinates of the basin are 100050 100170 east
longitude and 5360 25580 north latitude; the area encompasses approximately 2,565 km2.
The Erhai Lake Basin is the only area to exemplify the vast civilizations and cultural
traditions of the Dai-li Bai nationality and is a tourist area that provides for agriculture and
relaxation on holidays. Erhai Lake is the center of the watershed and the main water source
for drinking and for industrial and agricultural production. Moreover, the lake is also a
national nature conservation area and a scenic spot within the Cangshan Mountains. Erhai
Lake functions to adjust the climate and to preserve the hydrophilous biological diversity,
and it serves as an important foundation for socioeconomically sustainable development
for the entire watershed and Dali State (Yang et al. 2012).
Detailed studies within the Erhai Lake Basin have demonstrated that the major water
pollution source is non-point source pollution that results from the LUCC structure and
ecosystem services that are affected by frequent human activities (Dali Bai Autonomous
prefecture government 2012). As a result, non-point source pollution has been introduced
(Li et al. 2007; Tang et al. 2009), and the water environment has been influenced by these
changes in two ways: numerous impervious surfaces have been generated by rapid
urbanization, which aggravates urban non-point source pollution (Tippler 2012; Bonta and
Glick 2009; Liu et al. 2011), and agricultural production and habitation across the
watershed have increased the agricultural non-point pollution loading, such as N, P and
COD (Du et al. 2011). Therefore, the mechanisms that connect human activities and
dynamical LUCCs must be examined in the Erhai Lake Watershed. Moreover, the spa-
tiotemporal processes related to LUCC must be simulated to help mitigate the rapidly
spreading non-point source pollution.
Land-use/land-cover changes processes and mechanisms are complex and largely
affected by natural and human driving factors; therefore, simulating and modeling dynamic
LUCC processes are important in the correlative study of geo-simulations fields, such as
urban expansion and land-use change (Tian and Wu 2008). Numerical models that rep-
resent the LUCC processes have developed in three stages. First, mathematical models
were developed based on spatial characteristics, such as logistical regressive models
(LRMs) and Markov chain models (MCs) (Jokar Arsanjani et al. 2013). Second, cell
automation models (CAs) were developed. Lastly, agent-based models (ABMs) were
developed (Tian 2009; Xue et al. 2009). Mathematical and spatial models represent
macroscopically static modeling technology that cannot easily explain temporal land-use
changes. CA models are micro-dynamic models that can simulate dynamic spatial changes
related to LUCC processes (Vaz et al. 2012); however, these models cannot easily predict
the relationship between human activities and the environment, which cannot be ignored in
LUCC processes. To cover the shortage, many researchers have studied a hybrid model
integrating the two different modeling methods to simulate land-use change process, such
as LRM-CA models, MC-CA models and LRM-MC-CA models (Jokar Arsanjani et al.
2013; Sang et al. 2011; Mondal and Southworth 2010). Even through, it is still difficult to
simulate the effect of behavior of human on land-use change (Vaz et al. 2013). By com-
parison, ABM technology is a modeling method for complex adaptive systems (CAS) and
considers the comprehensive effects on both nature and humanity when simulating LUCC
processes (Batty 2012). ABMs can also combine macroscopic emergences and micro-
behaviors to determine the interactions between agents and the environment, which might

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assist in determining LUCC characteristics, such as the effects of uncertainty, nonlinearity

and humanity (Yang and Li 2007). Therefore, ABMs best represent the actual LUCC
processes (Jokar Arsanjani et al. 2013), and the simulated results have good stability and
accuracy (Deng et al. 2009; Zhang and Liang 2004). Further advances in ABMs for
simulating LUCC processes could assist in determining and calculating the relationships
between human activities and micro-scale land-use changes with the use of artificial
intelligence (AI). As a result, ABMs combined with AI are currently popular for simulating
LUCC spatiotemporal processes.
Ant colony optimization (ACO) is a typical artificial intelligence system that is rooted in a
type of swarm intelligence called biomimetics; ACO was introduced by the Italian scholar
Dorigo et al. (1996). ACO is robust and can produce positive feedbacks, which are typically
implemented in swarm intelligence (He et al. 2009). Because the concept of ACO is similar to
the human behavior rule, it has been frequently applied in CAS and ABM simulations in recent
years. Pilot ACO studies have been studied by geographers at home and abroad. These studies
have focused on ABM applications for urban expansion, TSP and optimal paths. Li X and Liu X
P of Sun Yat-Sen University used ACO to study the automatic digging transformational rules of
CA and location optimization, confirming that ACO was more advanced than the other models
using experiments in Guangzhou City (Liu et al. 2007a, b; 2012). Hu H L and Zeng Y N
established a new model that is used in location analysis for ecological land-use site selection by
integrating ABMs with ACO (Hu et al. 2011). Hilton used ACO to design an underwater
monitoring network (Li and Hilton 2007). Moreover, Wai used ACO to optimize the repair
schedule of power stations, and Gambardella used ACO to simulate vehicle routing (Wai et al.
2005). Fink and Homberger have considered a multi-agent extension of the non-preemptive
single-mode resource-constrained project scheduling problem with discounted cash flow
objectives through proposing a general decentralized negotiation approach which uses ideas
from ACO (Fink and Homberger 2013). ACO has been used for decision-optimized agent-
based modeling, which accurately controls the agents behavior and decision-making. As a
result, ACO is especially exact when simulating microcosmic effective mechanisms between
human activities and dynamical LUCC processes.
Based on a combination of existing results and the natural and human conditions of the
Erhai Lake Watershed, we integrated ACO and ABM technology to establish a LUCC model
for simulating the spatiotemporal dynamic LUCC processes, analyzing the LUCC driving
mechanisms, forecasting developing trends and future results and providing decision-making
support for scientific land-use planning and reasonable land uses for the entire basin.

2 LUCC-ABM modeling based on ACO for the Erhai Lake Basin

2.1 The principles of ACO applications in LUCC processes

In the absence of binding rules, an agents behavior is purposeless, and the agents deci-
sions are meaningless, as shown via its random movement in space and its changes in
status. Although randomness can guarantee that models produce natural simulations, it is
difficult to explain spatial aggregation and the purpose of residents and farmers in the land
selection process. Based on ant colony optimization, an agents behavior will emerge as the
evident phenomenon of spatial aggregation along with changes in ant pheromone accu-
mulation, which not only corresponds to the universal rule of human activity in land-use
change but also avoids the complexity of rule construction using traditional methods and
can enhance the efficiency of rule construction and simulation accuracy.

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Ant colony optimization has the ability to adapt and extend spatially, thus enabling the
solution of combinational optimization problems, such as TSP, QAP, JSP and allocation (Xin
et al. 2002; Zhao et al. 2011). This paper introduces ACO to investigate the rule whereby people
always follow the principle of optimality during the allocation of land-use choices, which
includes maximum benefit, minimum cost, time saving and shortest distance. Here, ants are
agents of the model and extract the optimizing target, heuristic rules and decision-making
functions according to the concept of ACO. The agents find and choose land uses in the set
district; their random-like behavior and decisions may represent goals similar to those in the real
world. The geography and LUCC processing-based aspect of ACO can be understood by
viewing a document (He et al. 2009). The movement area of ants (agents) is a geographic raster of
M 9 N cells; the goal is to find P cells from the entire district. If the sum of the distances between
the destination cells is minimized, then the cost of finding a path can be considered the quasi-
optimal solution. Here, the costs are a geographic concept that may represent, e.g., travel time,
spatial distance or economic cost. In this paper, costs mainly depend on the factors that affect
the behaviors and decisions of agents on land-use choice such as terrain, transportation network,
economical index (GDP) and population density, and less of costs, closer to best paths.

2.2 Constructing the LUCC-ABM model and optimizing the method based on ACO

Human activities have two effects on the Erhai Lake Watershed: land cultivation and urban
development (Vaz et al. 2013; Parker et al. 2003). By analyzing these two typical effects of
human behaviors, the agents categories can be defined according to three classes: farmer
agents, habitat agents and government agents. The decisions and behaviors of farmer
agents are primarily concerned with cultivated land; changes in these decisions and
behaviors can describe a superior aggregation of farmland for dynamic LUCC processes.
Habitat agents are responsible for urban land use; their preferences for urban land largely
affect the results of government construction decisions. Government agents make the final
decision regarding land use and determine the direction of land-use development. The
behavior and decision-making process for land-use determinations that are based on the
ABM combined with ACO are shown in Fig. 1 (Liu et al. 2012).
The model initialization begins with the ACO (Ticks = 0) to solve the optimization
process, determine the residents and farmers land-use results and form aspirations for
land uses and choices. These aspirations are then sensed and evaluated by the government
agents, who comprehensively consider the land-use requirements based on peoples ideas
and land planning. As a result, the most appropriate land type is chosen, transformed and
used in the reconstruction of the new LUCC status. Finally, the model advances to the next
simulation process (Ticks??).

2.3 Rules for agent behavior and decisions

Without being restrained by rules, the agents behaviors are aimless, and their decisions are
not important, as represented by the random agent movements and the spatial transfor-
mation of cell statuses. Randomness might express the naturality of a simulation; however,
randomness cannot easily explain spatial aggregation and purposiveness, which occur
when residents and farmers choose a land use. In addition, the traditional methodology of
rule construction primarily considers the environmental effect where the agents live, which
is helpful for agents when selecting suitable land-use types; however, this methodology
cannot explain the geographic importance of agent movement or intelligence. Therefore,
the introduction of the ACO in this model is designed to detect obvious geospatial

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Parameters Setting Unit of Computing Scenario Plans

(Ticks++)
Extraction of Ants Impact Factors
Evaluation of
Accuracy
Extraction of Food Original LUCC

Initialization of Data New LUCC

Initialization of ACO

Initialization of Model ( Ticks=0 ) Simulating Results

Rules of behaviors Comprehensive

ACO Star and decision-making function of
Model Computing decision-making

Optimizing of Microcosmic Macrocosmic

allocation agent decision agent decision

Government
Ant Catalogies Resident Agents
Agents
Rules of
Rules of microcosmic agents macrocosmic agents

Fig. 1 The ABM based on ACO and its application for LUCC spatiotemporal processes

aggregations of agents by accumulating the released pheromones of ants, which can

express the geographical insignificance of agent behaviors and improve the search effi-
ciency during model computation.

2.3.1 Behavior rules for microcosmic agents

Because land-planning and land-use policies that have no explicit spatial characteristics are
the primary concerns of government agents, their movement rules must not be considered.
However, the spatial movement of farmers and residents greatly affects land use and the
design and contract processes; therefore, their movement rules should be determined using
ACO. Ant pheromones are computed by performing a running count of ticks that are stored
in an array. Then, the next ant that moves is determined according to the density of residual
pheromones around the ants current location cell. The computational method for residual
pheromones is represented by the difference in pheromones between what ants leave behind
and what they volatilize in the same cell. The improved method for pheromones incorpo-
rates the results from several previous studies (He et al. 2009; Liu et al. 2007a, b, 2012; Hu
et al. 2011). Furthermore, the cost distance replaces the Euclidean distance, which is more
convenient for the model expression of geographic insignificance and numerical simula-
tions. The detailed numerical methods and mathematic formulae are shown below.

2.3.1.1 Calculation for ant agents To improve the efficiency of ant colony optimization,
we divided the study area into several sub-areas according to a space division method (such
as the sub-watershed method). The number of ant agents in each sub-area is determined
according to the following formula:

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Antisum Piden  Siarea  Rscale i 2 f1; 2; . . .sumg 1

where sum is the number of ants located in sub-area (i), Piden is the population density in
sub-area (i), Rscale is the sample population proportion that ranges between 0 and 1 and Siarea
is the actual area of sub-area (i).

2.3.1.2 Extraction of ant food To evaluate and analyze the land-use suitability in the
basin, three degrees of suitability are determined for each unit: highly suitable, moderately
suitable and slightly suitable. Finally, the geometry center points of the units are calculated
and used as the ant food location and the alternative location of resident land use for
different resident ant levels.

2.3.1.3 Location of ant nests position In this issue, the ants mainly mean the people who
have lived in the study area. Thereby, we could locate ant nests by extracting the positions
of the geometry centers of major residents.

2.3.1.4 Definition of the objective function for ACO The objective function is used to
evaluate the ACO results, which are closely related to the ACO target performance. For
land-use selection, classical objective functions are designed to compute the minimum cost
of the land-use location. Based on this design, we improved the normal function that
simulates the cost distance and the search route of ant agents. The function used to
determine the accumulating cost is
X
n
Dcos t i; j b1 X1 . . .bn Xn bm Xm 2
m1

where Dcos t i; j is the cost distance of a random cell located at point (i, j), n is the sum of
the impact factors, Xm is the mth factor and bm is the corresponding weight. Xm and its
importance are determined using a principle component analysis (PCA). Moreover, the
weights (bm) are determined using an analytic hierarchy process (AHP). The final
objective function is described by
m X
X n
Fk Dcos t i; j  Pden i; j  Sarea i; j k 2 f1; 2; . . .; sumg 3
i0 j0

where Fk is the final formula of the objective function, m and n are the sums of the ranks of
the kth simulated sub-area, Pden i; j is the population density in cell (i, j) and Sarea i; j is
the actual area of cell (i, j).

2.3.1.5 Updating policy for pheromones and conditions of convergence The updating
policy for the residue and volatilization of pheromones determines the ACO positive
feedback mechanism. To show the effect of costs on land choices, the updating algorithm
for pheromones was improved and includes the cost distance between alternative locations
instead of the Euclidean distance. In addition, to avoid locally optimal solutions and the
seeking of invalid locations, the convergence condition was also improved. The iterations
were not stopped until the same results had been iterated over 1/10 of the total iterations;
the moment cost for seeking was used as an approximate solution. The updating methods
for the pheromone density are shown in Table 1.

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Table 1 The updating policy and computational methods for pheromone density
Algorithm Meaning Mathematical Expression Explanation

Pheromone updating sij k 1 1  q  sij k Dsij k q is the volatilization coefficient of

for two iterations pheromones [01], and sij k is the
pheromone remaining from the head
ant
Pheromone change P
m m is the numbers of ants in a cell (i, j),
Dsij k snij k
between two 1 and n is the sequence number of ants
iterations
8 Q
Residue pheromone < p Q is a pheromone primacy constant, and
when the nth ant snij k Dncos t i; j Dncos t i; j is the cost when the nth ant
passes by cell (i, j) :  passes by cell (i, j) [shown in formula
0
(2)]. A check indicates that the ant
passed, and an uncheck stands for
missing data

2.3.2 Decision-making rules for microcosmic agents

The pheromone density is calculated when the ACO is completed for each simulation area,
which can be determined as an attribute of the cells using an M 9 N array. The pheromone
densities in each cell are then normalized with respect to the decision probability of the
microcosmic resident agents:
 
qBi; j  qBmin
Pmic i; j x1  i 2 m; j 2 n 4
qBmax  qBmin
where x1 is the weight, qBi; j is the pheromone density in cell (i, j) and qBmax and qBmin
are the maximum and minimum pheromone densities in the entire raster, respectively.

2.3.3 Decision-making rules for macrocosmic agents

Macrocosmic agents are called government agents and affect the land requirements
according to their land-use policies. As a result, the cost of policy restrictions, termed
policy resistance, is the primary method by which governments affect land transformations.
Clearly, the resistance originates from the difference between land requirements and land
planning; the effects on land choice can be computed by determining resistance coeffi-
cients. Table 2 shows the values of the resistance coefficients.
The resistance coefficients (Z) were validated by evaluating the difficulty by which land
requirements are transformed by land planning; the value is typically between 0 and 1.
Moreover, k represents the index of the array that stores the eight land-use types. These
conditions require three computational methods for the selected land cell that is located at
point (i, j). One method is used when the land-use type appears to be the same as the
planning type and matches the rigid policy. Then, the selected land cell is transformed
according to the land-planning type, and the macrocosmic probability is set to -1. Second,
if the selected land is dissimilar to the land-use planning type while matching the rigid
policy, the land is not changed during effective land planning, and the probability is set to
1. Finally, if the selected land does not match either of the previous conditions, then the
probability is computed according to the resistance coefficients defined in Table 2 and
using

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Table 2 The resistance coefficients for eight land-use types

Land plan Farmland Forest Wet Garden Water Grass Bare Construction Rigid
(Luplan) land land policy (P)

Resistance 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 0 False

coefficient (Z)
Type (k) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 True

8
< 1 Rk True & k Luplan
Pmac i; j 1 Rk True & k 6 Luplan 5
:
1  x1  Zk Rk False

2.3.4 Comprehensive decision-making rules

By combining the microcosmic and macrocosmic agent decision methods, the compre-
hensive transformation probability for land-use changes can be determined according to
Pfinal i; j Pmic i; j  Pmac i; j 6
where if Pfinal i; j  e , then the land cell located at point (i, j) is transformed into the land
use that was most likely among all types. Otherwise, the land use is not transformed.
Moreover, e is determined by calculating and estimating the relationship between the
simulated model accuracy and transforming the land-use threshold, which is typically
estimated using the highest peak and lies between 0 and 1.

3 Experiments and analysis

3.1 Study area and data

The experimental data include remote-sensing images, DEM and other fundamental geo-
graphic information of the Erhai Lake Watershed. Here, RS images are used to extract
LUCC information. Moreover, DEM is used to extract the effective terrain factors; the other
impact factors, such as travel, water, population density, GDP and residential, are extracted
from the fundamental geographic information. The spatial resolution used for handling and
analyzing all of the results is 30 9 30 m, which partially reduces the computational speed
of the model and largely increases the geometric and mathematical accuracy. Additional
expenses for the computing performance should be provided to produce better simulations
for the LUCC in the Erhai Lake Watershed. In addition, the LUCC classification standards
are primarily concentrated on the most pronounced land-use types for the basins water
environments. The land-use classes include eight types: cultivated land, forest, construction
land, wetland, water, grassland, garden plots and bare land. Table 3 shows the experimental
data catalogues and processing methods. The analysis of the results is shown in Fig. 2.

3.2 Parameter calibration for ACO

There are three important ACO parameters: the information enlightenment factor a, the
expectation enlightenment factor b and the pheromone evaporation factor q. The settings

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and combinations of these parameters have a significant impact on the convergence speed
and accuracy of ACO computation. To improve the parameter calibration efficiency, we
utilized the typical area (such as the sub-basin containing additional land uses) as sample
data. We also set the number of ants to 1,000 and obtained 20 address location points.
Other necessary information, such as the number of iterations (set to 100), was also chosen.
Moreover, additional calibration was performed based on a combination of previously
published sample data characteristics (Liu et al. 2012; Zhang and Liang 2007; Ye and
Zheng 2007). Based on experience, we initially set the parameters as follows: a = 1,
b = 5, q = 0.5 and Q = 100. Then, the values of the three parameters were changed one
by one, and a sensitive zone of different parameters was confirmed based on their con-
vergence rate to the optimal solution. Finally, the values were analyzed based on cali-
bration results to determine the best parameter combination. The eight values were set for
each parameter. The ACO was then run five times; the average result was used to deter-
mine the final evaluating index of the convergence rate. The results and analysis of the
parameter calibration for the ACO are shown in Table 4 and Fig. 3.
As shown in Fig. 3 and Table 4, the convergence rate tends to stabilize for a [ 3 and
b [ 5. The maximum is attained for 0.3 \ q \ 0.4. As a result, we selected the following
parameter combination for the ACO: a = 3, b = 5 and q = 0.35.

3.3 Simulated results and analysis

3.3.1 Simulated results

The model was programmed in Java and implemented using the Repast Java Platform
(Castle et al. 2006; Schwarz et al. 2012; Robertson 2005). The LUCC in 2000 for the basin
was used for initialization. The model first simulated the LUCC in 2010 for the Erhai Lake
Basin based on a random algorithm and ACO to evaluate the ACO efficiency at improving
the simulation accuracy. Then, the range of relative parameters was adjusted based on the
simulated results for 2010. Finally, the estimated LUCC in 2020 was simulated again based
on the improved model. In addition, the simulation temporal scale was set to seven days
per tick so that the model could run faster and be more efficient. Based on a polynomial
curve fitting, we simulated the dependence of the result accuracies on the transformation
thresholds; the peak of the curvilinear equation, i.e., e = 0.73, was used as the trans-
forming threshold, as shown in Fig. 4 and Table 5. The model graphical interface is
displayed in Fig. 5; the simulated results are shown in Fig. 6.

3.3.2 Verification of the simulated results

There are two methods that can be used to verify the simulations: a point-by-point com-
parison (p2p) and analysis of the shape contrast. The p2p method integrates the actual and
simulated LUCC results, produces point-by-point statistics and computes the accuracy of
each point. The latter method evaluates the similarity between the actual LUCC and the
simulated LUCC. The maximum accuracy was 78.01 % according to the p2p method for
2010 (Ke et al. 2011). However, that high accuracy does not mean that the simulated
results are absolutely correct because the result only indicates that the number of points
with the same land type in the simulation is close to the actual LUCC data; it is difficult to
determine whether the geographic arrangements are similar between the actual land uses
and the simulated results. To verify the similarity of the simulated actual LUCC shapes, the
LeeSallee (LS) shape index was used. The LS shape index represents the ratio of two

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Table 3 Experimental data and processing methods
Name Source Characteristics Application Processing

Remote-sensed images of Center for Earth Observation and Digital Earth 30 9 30 m Analysis for the current Extraction of remote-sensing information;
the Erhai Lake Basin of the Chinese Academy of Sciences ETM (129-042) and LUCC conditions suitability evaluation for land use
TM (129-043)
DEM of the Erhai Lake Center for Earth Observation and Digital Earth 30 9 30 m Analysis of the slope Surface processing from spatial analysis
Basin of the Chinese Academy of Sciences and aspect
Road Bought from a laboratory Vector with a scale Convenience evaluation Distance processing from spatial analysis
of 1:50,000 of traffic
Water Bought from a laboratory Vector with a scale Convenience evaluation Distance processing from spatial analysis
of 1:50,000 of water
Resident Bought from a laboratory Vector with a scale Extraction of ant nests Distance processing from spatial analysis
of 1:50,000
GDP Statistical yearbook of Yunnan Province in 2000 Text Evaluation of economic Kriging interpolation from geo-statistical
and 2010 costs analysis
Census Statistical yearbook of Yunnan Province in 2000 Text Extraction of ant Kriging interpolation from geo-statistical
and 2010 numbers analysis
Nat Hazards (2015) 75:95118
Nat Hazards (2015) 75:95118 105

Fig. 2 The results of the experimental data. a DEM; b slope; c aspect; d distance to a road; e distance to
water; f distance to town; g GDP density; h population density; and i land use planning

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Table 4 The results of the

Parameter Value Convergence point Convergence rate
parameter calibration for a, b and
q using ACO
a 0 5 0.95
1 3 0.97
2 2 0.98
3 1 0.99
5 1 0.99
7 2 0.98
9 1 0.99
12 1 0.99
b 1 28 0.72
5 2 0.97
7 2 0.98
10 1 0.99
13 3 0.97
15 2 0.98
17 2 0.98
20 2 0.98
q 0.1 2 0.98
0.2 3 0.97
0.3 1 0.99
0.4 1 0.99
0.5 2 0.98
0.7 4 0.96
0.9 3 0.97
0.99 2 0.98

Fig. 3 Statistical analysis of the parameter calibration for a, b and q using ACO

areas. One area represents the intersection between the simulated data and the real data; the
other area represents their union. Thus, the LS index is suitable for verifying the similarity
of geographic shapes between two different data sources. The formulation of the LS index
is as follows (Xu 2007):
A0 \ A1
L 7
A0 [ A1
where A0 is the total area of one of the eight land-use types used in the simulations and A1
is the total actual LUCC area. Moreover, L (the LS index value) is between 0 and 1; as L

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Fig. 4 The confirm of threshold

e

approaches 1, the similarity between the geographic shapes increases. Typically, if the
value is between 0.3 and 0.7, the geospatial consistency is good. The LS index results for
the Erhai Lake Watershed for 2010 were programmed and computed using Matlab and are
shown in Table 6 and Fig. 7.
From the p2p validation results, the maximum LUCC simulation accuracy was 78.01 %
based on a random algorithm and 83.62 % based on ACO, reflecting an improvement of
approximately 5.6 %. A comparison of the LS accuracy between the random algorithm
and ACO shows that ACO improved the accuracy for urban construction land-use simu-
lations; however, ACO did not improve the accuracy of agricultural land use. The total
accuracy using ACO was higher by approximately 3.4 % compared with the accuracy
using a random algorithm. As a result, ACO is sufficient for computing the interactions
between ants and their environment; such interactions occur more frequently in urban
construction land use and farmland use.
In addition, the LS results suggest that the LS index values for all land types except
wetlands are more than 0.3. The difference for wetlands is a result of the Dali state
governments recent wetland development, whose aim is to ecologically restore the
watershed; it is difficult for the model to accurately simulate this restoration.

3.3.3 Analysis of the simulated results

3.3.3.1 Analysis of spatial pattern of changed lands from 2010 to 2020 To discriminate
spatialtemporal differentiation of LUCCs in this study area, we have done an analysis of
spatial pattern of changed lands from 2010 to 2020. The computed method of changed
lands is shown as formula (8) as follows.

LU2010 6 LUcode \ LU2020 LUcode ) changed growth
LUchanged LUcode 2 f1; 2; . . .8g
LU2010 LUcode \ LU2020 6 LUcode ) changed loss
8
where LUchanged is the results of changed land use, which will be a binary raster surface
comprised of 0 and 1, and 0 is the value of unchanged area, 1 means the changed area.
Moreover, the changed lands have two levels, one means the growth of lands and another
means the loss of lands. LU2010 is the land use of 2010, LU2020 is the land use of 2020, and
LUcode is the code in raster that stands for one of eight types of classified land use in
context. As a result, the ranges of those codes are from 1 to 8 per one interval. This method
is not difficult to implement based on the raster computing toolkit in many GIS software,
and the computed results of space distribution of changed land uses from 2010 to 2020 are
shown as Fig. 8.

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Table 5 Comparison between the accuracy and threshold for land-use transformations
Threshold 0.1 0.15 0.2 0.25 0.3 0.35 0.4 0.45 0.5 0.55 0.6 0.65 0.7 0.75 0.8 0.85 0.9 0.95 1
Accuracy 22.14 33.15 36.15 43.89 45.78 56.25 56.45 60.48 65.88 68.46 77.06 78.53 79.21 79.30 77.13 70.10 63.03 56.15 47
Nat Hazards (2015) 75:95118
Nat Hazards (2015) 75:95118 109

Fig. 5 The implementation of the model

As shown in Fig. 8, in this studying area, we could find that there is a significant
difference of spatial pattern of changed (growth and loss) areas of various land-use types in
the next decade. Specifically, urban land-use changes are mainly occurred surrounding
Erhai Lake and existed residential lands, which could infer that peoples residential needs
depend on the existed spatial pattern of living lands very much; farmland changes are
mainly distributed in the areas of low-medium elevation and around water, which explains
that the accessibility of water and terrain effects the farmers choices of new farmland
exploration; the spatial patterns of forest, bare and grass land-use changes seem alike, and
are mainly occurred in the areas of high elevation far away from the human major living
areas, and this condition seems give an evidence that government land-use policy designed
to protect the regional ecological environment will come into being a good influence (Dali
Bai Autonomous prefecture government 2012). As for the other land-use changes, the
quantity of changes is too small to make an analysis for them. Overall, according to the
general spatial pattern of land-use changes, we could find that the active level of land-use
change in upper and middle watershed seems higher than that in downstream. It likely
indicates that development of Dali city (capital of Dali state) will be reaching the top at the
next developing stage, and it may be a better idea to develop several new regional social
economical growth points in the upper and middle areas of watershed, in order to advance
the balance of economic development in whole watershed zone.

3.3.3.2 General analysis of the dynamic LUCCs in the Erhai Lake Basin from 2000 to
2020 We computed and analyzed the dynamic LUCCs over the past decades and the
trend for future decades using the actual LUCCs in 2000 and 2010 and the simulated
LUCCs in 2010 and 2020 (Zhu and Li 2003). The results are shown in Table 7 and Fig. 9.
The results suggest that the cultivated land area was significantly reduced regardless of
the absolute value or rate at which the land area changed. Moreover, the increase in
construction land was sustained; other land uses were stable. This finding shows that the

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110 Nat Hazards (2015) 75:95118

Fig. 6 Simulated LUCC results for the Erhai Lake Basin. a The actual LUCC in 2010; b simulated results
for 2010 based on the random method; c simulated results for 2010 based on the ACO method; d simulated
results for 2011; e simulated results for 2015; and f simulated results for 2020

Table 6 The LS model valida-

Land-use type Random algorithm ACO
tion and comparison between a
random algorithm and ACO
Forest 0.682 0.676
Grassland 0.356 0.342
Farmland 0.308 0.416
Garden land 0.362 0.389
Wetland 0.171 0.163
Construction land 0.302 0.521
Water 0.917 0.923
Bare land 0.362 0.378
Total 0.502 0.536

major interaction between humans and land in the watershed has been the persistent
reduction of cultivated lands, which has been a result of increased urban expansion. If
urbanization is occurring, then it is difficult for Erhai Watershed authorities to enforce
land-use conservation policy (holding out cultivated lands and holding onto their red

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Nat Hazards (2015) 75:95118 111

Fig. 7 Comparison of the simulation accuracy between a random algorithm and the ACO method

Fig. 8 Changes of all land uses on spatial pattern based on loss-growth analysis from 2010 to 2020

thread). Therefore, the interaction between human activities and environmental changes
must be controlled by the government, which must determine how to proceed with
urbanization while maintaining warning limit of arable cultivated land.

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Table 7 Comparison of land-use areas between the simulation and reality
Land-use Actual area in Simulated area in Actual area in Simulated area Rate of change (%) Value of change (ha)
type 2000 (ha) 2010 (ha) 2010 (ha) in 2020 (ha)
Actuality Actuality Simulation Simulation Actuality Simulation
in 2000 in 2010 in 2020 in 2010 in 2010 in 2020

Forest 942.97 951.20 968.35 969.56 0.87 2.69 0.12 8.23 25.39 1.21
Grassland 248.75 245.48 269.69 264.64 -1.31 8.42 -1.87 -3.27 20.93 -5.05
Farmland 637.73 572.52 551.15 444.88 -10.23 -13.58 -19.28 -65.21 -86.58 -106.2
Garden land 37.81 30.76 23.63 19.56 -18.65 -37.51 -17.22 -7.05 -14.18 -4.07
Wetland 27.66 26.68 39.58 40.04 -3.54 43.10 1.16 -0.98 11.92 0.46
Construction 152.38 231.44 241.92 327.24 51.88 58.76 35.27 79.06 89.53 85.32
land
Water 251.77 252.32 256.53 254.96 0.22 1.89 -0.61 0.55 4.76 -1.57
Bare land 295.06 282.72 243.29 273.32 -4.18 -17.55 12.34 -12.34 -51.77 30.03
Nat Hazards (2015) 75:95118
Nat Hazards (2015) 75:95118 113

3.3.3.3 Comparison between reality and the simulated results Based on the actual and
simulated LUCCs, we analyzed the LUCC transfer matrix from 2000 to 2010 and from
2010 to 2020 (results of the model simulation), as shown in Tables 8 and 9 (Sang et al.
2011; Zhu and Zhu 2010; Zhao et al. 2009).

(a) statistical areas of land use at 2010 and 2020

2000-Reality
1200
Areas (hectare)

1000 2010-Simulation
800
2010-Reality
600
2020-Simulation
400
200
0
y

ss

nd

nd

er

nd
str

de

io
ra

at
la

la

la
ct
ar
re

W
G

rm

et

re
ru
G
Fo

Ba
Fa

nt
Land use type Co

(b) statistical rate of land use change at 2010 and 2020

80 2010-Reality
Rate of change (%)

60 2010-Simulation
40
2020-Simulation
20
0
-20
-40
-60
y

ss

nd

nd

er

nd
str

de

io
ra

at
la

la

la
ct
ar
re

W
G

rm

et

re
ru
G
Fo

Ba
Fa

nt
Co

Land use type

Fig. 9 Comparison of land-use areas between reality and the simulations from 2000 to 2020. a Comparison
between the actual and simulated areas of land use; b comparison of the rate of change between the actual
and simulated areas of land use

Table 8 Ten-year transformational matrix of land use from 2000 to 2010, i.e., historical conditions (%)
Forest Grassland Farmland Garden Wetland Construction Water Bare Total
land land land

Forest 81.78 7.03 4.53 0.03 0.10 0.97 0.01 5.57 100
Grassland 12.03 31.80 35.21 0.15 0.27 3.50 0.03 17.01 100
Farmland 9.52 7.39 56.80 4.61 0.74 6.82 0.06 14.07 100
Garden land 5.80 0.46 50.10 39.78 0.31 2.72 0.01 0.82 100
Wetland 18.53 18.73 20.20 1.04 24.34 9.20 3.41 4.56 100
Construction 14.39 12.11 21.44 0.76 2.35 36.78 0.19 11.96 100
land
Water 0.11 0.02 0.04 0.00 2.51 0.06 97.23 0.02 100
Bare land 9.19 7.11 46.90 0.03 0.04 1.06 0.00 35.67 100

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114 Nat Hazards (2015) 75:95118

By analyzing land-use transformations over past decades (Fig. 10a; Table 8), cultivated
lands were found to be transformed to bare lands, contracture lands, forests and grasslands.
These changes demonstrate that the land-use requirements for urbanization and ecological

Table 9 Ten-year transformational matrix of land use from 2010 to 2020, i.e., forecasted conditions (%)
Forest Grassland Farmland Garden Wetland Construction Water Bare Total
land land land

Forest 85.48 3.89 3.55 0.03 0.47 2.57 0.01 4.00 100
Grassland 14.97 49.78 8.70 0.14 1.84 8.22 0.14 16.21 100
Farmland 6.08 5.02 57.42 1.80 1.82 18.38 0.19 9.28 100
Garden land 1.52 1.18 41.46 32.77 2.32 19.91 0.18 0.66 100
Wetland 10.99 12.64 21.12 0.88 22.27 17.57 8.10 6.44 100
Construction 8.96 0.79 13.95 0.36 2.66 65.56 0.74 6.97 100
land
Water 0.16 0.15 0.32 0.00 1.44 1.11 96.76 0.06 100
Bare land 16.95 16.73 8.60 0.07 0.86 6.97 0.03 49.79 100

Fig. 10 The statistical analysis for dynamical LUCCs over the past decades and in future decades.
a Historical analysis from 2000 to 2010; b forecasted transformations from 2010 to 2020

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Nat Hazards (2015) 75:95118 115

and economic development are the major outputs of cultivated lands. Moreover, the higher
inputs of bare lands indicate a lower use ratio of cultivated lands due to the lower effi-
ciency of bare land use. This result indicates that related departments should focus on idle
land and improve its monitoring. Wetlands tend to be adjacent to forests, grasslands and
cultivated land, which shows that the government has consciously enhanced the protection
of ecological environments around lakesides.
By analyzing the land-use inputs/outputs for the next 10 years, it was found that cul-
tivated lands are primarily converted into construction land; this transformation ratio will
be higher than it was over the past 10 years, indicating that the rate of urbanization will
accelerate throughout the watershed (Table 9; Fig. 10b). In addition, new land sources,
such as construction lands, will affect wetlands and bare lands, and the primary output will
be forests, grasslands and construction lands. These changes indicate that the land structure
and function will benefit from the conservation of lakeside ecological environments. The
analyses showed that the major factors driving LUCC are the requirements of land for
urbanization and ecological environment conservation. The remaining cultivated lands are
a result of the governments positive response to appeals from farmers to protect farmland.

4 Conclusions

By analyzing the dynamic LUCC processes and their effect on water environments that are
impacted by urbanization and socioeconomic development in the Erhai Lake Watershed,
this paper has concluded that the degradation of ecological environments and the aggra-
vation of non-point source water pollution are results of unsustainable land-use changes
throughout the watershed. Therefore, the current status of and future trends in LUCCs must
be studied to identify unsustainable land-use patterns and inducing factors and to protect
the ecological environment of the entire watershed. Through a combination of GIS tech-
nologies for data processing and spatial analysis, this paper applied agent-based modeling
to establish a spatiotemporal process model for simulating the dynamic LUCCs over the
entire watershed. The general findings of this study are as follows. First, we evaluated the
selected factors that affect dynamic land-use changes. Then, we created classes of agents
and determined their rules in LUCC processes. Based on the Java language and the Repast
modeling platform, the program was designed and implemented; details of the numerical
model were provided. Finally, the model was validated, and the results were analyzed and
discussed.
To sum up, we could draw some conclusions or suggestions from the analysis of results.
(I): The ant colony algorithm was effective in identifying important agent movements and
decisions, and the simulated results showed mathematical (up to 5.6 %) and geometrical
(up to 3.4 %) improvements compared with a random method. However, the advantage of
ACO was not suitable for all of land-use types, for instances, there was no any
improvements even reducing to those land-use types which were less effected by human
activities, such as forest-, grass- and wetland uses. Thereby, we could infer that ACO is
more sensitive to interaction between human actions and land-use changes, and it is
suitable for optimizing human behaviors and decisions of land-use transfer. And (II):
According to the analysis of quantity and spatial pattern of land-use changes, we found that
major changed urban land-use areas were distributed around Dali city, Eryuan city and the
east side of Erhai Lake, which maybe has given an evidence that the urbanization policy
called 1 ? 6 center urban agglomeration and conservation to the west but development
to the east of Erhai Lake will significantly affect land-use structure regulation (Erhai Lake

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2012). Meanwhile, in those areas with higher urbanization, the replacements among bare-,
forest- and farmland uses exchanged frequently, but the spatial pattern of urbanization was
still absolute dominance. It indicates that game of land-use choice among governments,
residents and farmers is more intense, however, the conflicts from game playing will be
reconciled according to some mollified strategies such as farmland loss compensation
and hundred villages renovation (Erhai Lake 2012). And last (III): if the land-use policy
remains unchanged, the major interaction between humans and the land over the next
10 years will result in a persistent decrease in farmland (-19.28 %) and a continuous
increase in urban land (35.27 %). As a result, we have two concerns. One is a number of
impervious surfaces(IS) will be produced due to the fast growth of urban land, which likely
increase the risk of urban non-point source pollution, and another is if only depending on
the governmental compensation, it is not easy to keep a long balance between farmland
loss and urban land growth. Thereby, we suggest that something should be done to make
the urbanization migrate from the upper-middle to the downstream of watershed to reduce
the risk of pollution and to attract social investment into the land market in order to reduce
the financial burden of the local government, which will benefit the sustainable develop-
ment of local economy.
Because LUCC is a complex and uncertain spatiotemporal process that typically
undergoes long-term changes, ABMs are advantageous for simulating dynamic LUCCs.
The LUCC-ABM formulation and simulation consider cultural and natural factors;
therefore, the model requires high running speeds and efficiencies. As a result, additional
studies on the LUCC-ABM process are required to construct higher performing, more
intelligent computing models that do not sacrifice accuracy.

Acknowledgments I would like to thank my doctoral supervisor Professor Yang Kun for his careful and
patient direction on this papers topic and composition. In addition, assistants Yang Yulian and Li Cen gave
additional suggestions on the included theories. Postgraduate Wang Guilin contributed substantial support
with programming and implementation of the models. Moreover, postgraduates Huang Kaimin and Song Yi
offered substantial assistance for handling and processing the data. I would like to sincerely thank all of
these individuals for their help and support. This paper has received financial support from two projects
under Grant No. 2012AA1214002 and 2012AA1214003, the Hi-Tech Research and Development Program
of China under Grant No. 2012AA1214000, the Specialized Research Fund for the Doctoral Program of
Higher Education under Grant No. 20115303110002, the Yunnan Provincial Science and Technology
Project under Grant No. 2011XX2005 and the Yunnan Provincial Department of Education Research Fund
under Grant No. 2011Y307.

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