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journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/compgeo

evidence theory for uncertainty quantication

Leonardo C. Pereira a,b,c, Leonardo J.N. Guimares b, Bernardo Horowitz b, Marcelo Snchez a,

a

Zachry Department of Civil Engineering, Texas A&M University, USA

b

Department of Civil Engineering, Federal University of Pernambuco, Recife, Brazil

c

PETROBRAS Petrleo Brasileiro S.A., Brazil

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: The injection of water (or CO2) at high pressure is a common practice to enhance oil production. A crucial

Received 9 September 2013 component of this activity is the estimation of the maximum pressure at which the uids can be injected

Received in revised form 4 December 2013 without inducing the reactivation of pre-existing faults that may exist in the formation. The damage

Accepted 12 December 2013

zones typically formed around the geological faults are highly heterogeneous. The materials involved

Available online 3 January 2014

in the damage zones are characterized by the huge variation of their properties and high uncertainties

associated with them. To estimate the maximum allowable injection pressure this paper presents a novel

Keywords:

approach based on: a coupled hydro-mechanical formulation (for the numerical analyses); a criterion

Fault reactivation

Maximum injection pressure

based on the total plastic work (for the fault reactivation); and the evidence theory (for uncertainty quan-

Coupled hydro-mechanical analysis tication). A case study based on information gathered from an actual eld is presented to illustrate the

Evidence theory capabilities of the proposed framework.

Uncertainty quantication 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction fault core. A number of recent modeling efforts have been made

to better understand the mechanical and ow behavior in the dam-

Reservoir seals are natural traps that prevent the upward age zones. For example Goodarzi et al. [1] performed a determinis-

migration of hydrocarbons. Fault reactivation may induce seal rup- tic modeling for CO2 storage in Nisku aquifer in Wabamun Lake

ture with the possibility of connecting the reservoir with other area in Canada. They concluded that the injection in the Nisku

rock blocks and nally with the surface. This process may lead to aquifer may cause small surface heave only, with (very likely) no

oil release and the associated environmental accident. Fault reacti- environmental impact associated with surface deformations. The

vation can be triggered by different factors, including the injection hydro-mechanical behavior of a fault running across a reservoir

of uids (i.e. H2O; CO2) at high pressure generally used to enhance during a CO2 injection scenario was modeled by Ducellier et al.

oil production. Injection of uids at high pressure represents a cen- [2]. Particular attention was paid to the inuence of some model

tral activity around oil production strategies. Perhaps one of the parameters on the uid ow response through the fracture. They

biggest challenges of engineers and geologists involved in H2O/ showed that the parameter with the major inuence on the ow

CO2 injection projects is to estimate the maximum allowable injec- along the fault is the permeability of the lling material, and the

tion pressure that will not hampered the seal condition of the fault. following ones (in a lower extent): the reservoir permeability,

In this work a methodology based on coupled numerical analysis the permeability of the joint elements and the initial opening of

and uncertainty quantication (using evidence theory) is proposed the joint elements (these last two are strongly related). The main

to estimate the maximum injection pressure in oil reservoir aim of this work [2] was not to estimate the injection pressure that

systems. reactivate the fault, but the effects of the owdeformation cou-

The appropriate representation of a geological fault in a plings on the behavior of the fault zone. Perera et al. [3] developed

numerical model requires a good understanding of the so-called a 2D model using the Comsol Multiphysics simulator to obtain the

damage zones. Damage zones are formed by fractured rocks optimum injection pressure in coal seam without breaking its

associated with the deformation process near the less permeable sealant. They concluded that during CO2 injection, the cap rock is

vertically deformed by CO2 pressure. Moreover, the maximum ver-

tical deformation of the cap rock and the CO2 spread rate along the

Corresponding author. Address: Zachry Department of Civil Engineering, Texas interface increase with the increment of the CO2 injecting pressure.

A&M University, 3136 TAMU, College Station, TX 77843-3136, USA. Tel.: +1 979 862 The problem of uid ow coupled with the deformation of the nat-

6604; fax: +1 979 862 7696.

ural formation has been discussed extensively in the literature. For

E-mail address: msanchez@civil.tamu.edu (M. Snchez).

0266-352X/$ - see front matter 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.compgeo.2013.12.007

L.C. Pereira et al. / Computers and Geotechnics 56 (2014) 202215 203

Nomenclature

r total stress tensor K0 earth pressure coefcient at rest

b body force vector kh horizontal permeability

/ porosity kv vertical permeability

ql liquid density E Youngs modulus

Pl liquid pressure t Poissons ratio

ql Darcys ow IDZ internal damage zone

u solid phase velocity EDZ external damage zone

qs solid density C2 external damage zone cohesion

ev volumetric strain NIRES reservoir Poissons ratio

r0 effective stress tensor ERES reservoir Youngs modulus

m auxiliary vector AA2 external damage zone friction angle

FY yield surface NI2 external damage zone Poissons ratio

h lode angle E2 external damage zone Youngs modulus

J 2nd stress invariant NIRIG denes K0 = NIRIG/(1 NIRIG)

p0 effective mean stress KRES reservoir permeability

c0 effective cohesion KDAMAGE2 external damage zone permeability

/0 effective friction angle KCORE core permeability

ep plastic strain tensor CCORE core cohesion

ry stress tensor at yielding NICORE core Poissons ratio

Wc plastic energy dissipated per unit volume ECORE core Youngs modulus

/i initial porosity AACORE core friction angle

ki intrinsic initial permeability tensor

example, Kojic and Cheatham [4] presented a treatment of the alternative approach, called fuzzy point estimate method, to esti-

plasticity theory in porous media with uid ow. Huang et al. [5] mate the reliability of a nite earth slope. The approach incorpo-

used the random nite element method to investigate the rates the degree of membership value associated with each of

inuence of the standard deviation on various measures of the the uncertain input parameters used in the proposed model.

equivalent coefcients of consolidation. Schweiger and Peschl [11] developed a methodology based on evi-

A key characteristic of the fault reactivation problem is the huge dence theory and compared the results obtained with this tech-

range of variation of hydraulic and mechanical parameters in this nique against random eld nite element analysis by means of

highly heterogeneous zone. Furthermore, the lack of reliable assessing the probability of failure of a simple slope. They showed

experimental data associated with the materials in the damage that in some cases both methods give very similar results but in

zone is quite common. Therefore, a formal framework is essential other cases important differences are observed, in particular for

for handling the uncertainties associated with this kind of analysis. small spatial correlation lengths where the averaging procedure

Uncertainty quantication is the process of determining the effect adopted is less accurate. That study concentrated on the mechan-

of input uncertainties on response metrics of interest. The input ical problem only, without considering the hydro-mechanical

uncertainties can be characterized as either aleatory uncertainty, (HM) coupling in the analysis.

which has irreducible variabilities inherent in nature; or epistemic This paper focuses on the evaluation of the maximum allowable

uncertainties, which are reducible uncertainties resulting from a injection pressure to assist oil production in pressurized reservoirs

lack of knowledge. Since sufcient data is generally available for involving a fault zone. Deterministic, probabilistic and non-proba-

aleatory uncertainties, probabilistic methods are commonly used bilistic analyses have been performed based on a typical fault

for computing response distribution statistics based on input prob- reactivation problem. This kind of analysis is generally solved ana-

ability density functions. Conversely, for epistemic uncertainties lytically or numerically and the criterion adopted to decide

data is generally scarce, making the use of probability theory ques- whether the fault will be reactivated or not is based on the position

tionable and resulting sometimes in non-accurate predictions. of the current stress state with respect to a yield surface or enve-

When dealing with epistemic variables, non-probabilistic methods lope (e.g. Mohr Coulomb envelope). In this work, a fully coupled

generally based on the specication of intervals data are more formulation has been used in the numerical analyses and for the

appropriate. rst time the evidence theory has been used to quantify the uncer-

In the analyses presented in this work, the parameters uncer- tainties typically associated with this complex problem. Another

tainties are mainly related to the lack of (or limited) information novel contribution of this work is the adoption of the total plastic

about them. So, the uncertainty is not aleatory but epistemic work criterion in the fault zone to estimate the maximum injection

and, therefore, a framework based on the evidence theory (a pressure. A quality of this criterion is that the assessment of the

non-probabilistic method) has been adopted in this work to deal fault reactivation is based on the behavior in a certain volume

with the uncertainties associated with the main variables involved (near the fault) and not in isolated points, as it happens in other

in this problem. criteria adopted in the pass (e.g. the ones based on the yield surface

Uncertainty quantication has been an important topic in al- criterion). One disadvantage of the evidence theory is the high

most all the engineering areas. Probability theory based on the CPU-time demand generally associated with the numerical analy-

Bayesian school has been widely used in the past (e.g. [6,7]); but sis. In this paper we propose the use of Articial Neural Networks

more recently fuzzy methods and evidence theory are regarded (ANN) to reduce the computational cost.

as ones of the legitimate extension of classical probability theory The paper is organized as follows: rst, concepts related to the

(e.g. [8,9]). Dodagoudar and Venkatachalam [10] presented an fault zone and the fault reactivation processes are introduced.

204 L.C. Pereira et al. / Computers and Geotechnics 56 (2014) 202215

Then, the main equations of the model and relevant HM couplings factors, amongst others: shear and tensile strengths of the forma-

are briey described. Afterwards, the case study is analyzed using tion rock and changes in uid pressures (which in turn induce

probabilistic and non-probabilistic methods. Finally the main con- changes in effective stresses). If the injection of uids (i.e. H2O or

clusions of this research are presented. CO2) at high pressures is such that the associated changes in effec-

tive stresses induce yielding, signicant stress re-distribution and

plastic deformations are anticipated in the reservoir and fault zone.

2. Fault reactivation process Those changes generally lead to the reactivation of pre-existing

discontinuities (and/or the formation of new fractures) and the loss

The loss of the reservoir seal is one of the most critical situa- of the fault sealing capability. Once the fault is reactivated, uids

tions in the oil industry. The uncontrolled inux and leak-out by may migrate between blocks and also from the reservoir to

pre-existing or induced discontinuities in the overlying rock mass shallower depths through the reopened discontinuity. The fault

can lead to huge economic loss and environmental impact. The reactivation can also pose a problem for well casing integrity that

trap is the stratigraphic or structural feature that ensures the jux- eventually intersects these reactivated regions.

taposition of reservoir and seals such that hydrocarbons remain From above, it can be concluded that this problem is character-

trapped in the subsurface, rather than escaping to the surface ized by the strong coupling between the mechanical and the ow

due to their natural buoyancy. Fig. 1 presents (schematically) a problems [17]. For a particular case study, the injection pressure

structural view of a trapped reservoir. that may trigger the fault reactivation will depend on the coupled

Geological discontinuities, such as faults, are inherent in most hydro-mechanical processes described above and on the materials

petroleum formations. A fault plane (or fault zone) is a discontinu- properties involved in the analysis. The formal approach used in

ity in the rock mass, quite common in most sedimentary basins. It this work to analyze this type of problems is presented in the next

may be formed, amongst other, by tectonism or halokinesis pro- section.

cesses characterized by temporal distortion of evaporites. Fig. 2

shows a typical disposition of materials in a fault zone. The fault 3. Mathematical formulation and computer code

plane is an intensely fractured region basically formed by a central

core and the damage zones. This set of materials is called fault The fully coupled formulation proposed by Olivella et al. [18]

rock. The core comprises a ller material located between the fault and the associated nite element program CODE_BRIGHT [19] have

planes. The ller is composed of ne particles sizes (mainly formed been adopted for the numerical analysis. This approach is able to

due to shear deformations), which may or may not be diageneti- deal with non-isothermal multiphase uid ow in deformable por-

cally cemented. In geomechanical studies, it can be assumed that ous media. For sake of simplicity, isothermal conditions have been

the fault core is initially impermeable. The damage zone encom- assumed in this work. Furthermore, only one uid has been consid-

passes the mass of deformed rocks around the fault surface, which ered in the analysis. This decision has been taken to reduce the

results from the initiation, propagation and build-up of slip along number of constitutive laws (and related model parameters) in-

faults (e.g. [12,13]). The damage zone may extend up to several volved in the uncertainty quantication analysis. This study can

meters beyond the fault core. be also considered as the necessary preliminary step before per-

Fractures in fault zones may develop in a variety of angles with forming a multiphase analysis.

respect to the direction of the maximum principal stresses gener- The formulation is composed of balance equations (established

ated during the frictional sliding of the adjacent faulted blocks for the whole porous medium) and constitutive equations (related

[14,15]. Due to the presence of the fractures, this region may have to the intrinsic materials behavior). In this work three balance

different mechanical properties respect to the host rock. These equations have been adopted as follows: momentum balance,

fractures are considered sealed at the beginning of the analyses, mass balance of water and solid. The specic constitutive equa-

and they act as a barrier for the migration of uids. In fact, the seal- tions are described below and the adopted model parameters for

ant condition of the fault in both regions (i.e. central core and the the analyses are presented in Section 4. More details about the

damage zone) is an essential requirement for the existence of the mathematical formulation can be found elsewhere (e.g. [18,19]).

oil reservoir.

However this sealant condition of the fault may change due to 3.1. Balance equations

geological processes or human actions. For example, typical opera-

tions associated with oil production, such as H2O or CO2 injections, Inertia effects are not considered in this study; therefore

generally result in the re-distribution of in situ stresses, which may momentum balance is reduced to the equilibrium equation:

lead to the reactivation of nearby faults and subsequent slips [16].

The mechanical integrity of the reservoir depends on a number of r:r b 0 1

L.C. Pereira et al. / Computers and Geotechnics 56 (2014) 202215 205

External Internal

Damage Zone Damage Zone Core

Reservoir (EDZ) (IDZ) (~5 meters)

(~25 meters) (~15 meters)

where r is the symmetric tensor of total stresses and b is the body The mechanical model presented above has been combined

force vector. with a criterion to predict fault reactivation. A ductile fracture cri-

Considering a porous medium saturated with a single uid (e.g. terion to predict the onset of fracture opening based on the total

water), the mass balance of liquid is represented by: plastic work was rst suggested by Gillemot [20]. This criterion

assumes that the crack will start (and will then propagate) when

@/ql

r:ql ql /ql u

_ 0 2 the plastic energy dissipated per unit volume reaches a critical va-

@t

lue (Wc). The energy absorbed per unit volume during yielding can

where / is the porosity and ql is the liquid density. The liquid is be calculated as [20]:

considered compressible and its density depends on the liquid pres- Z

sure Pl (e.g. [19]). The Darcys ow is dened by ql and u is the solid Wc rY : dep dV 8

phase velocity.

The mass balance of solid can be expressed as: where ep is the tensor of plastic strains and ry is the stress tensor at

yielding. This study proposes to use the total plastic work criterion

@

1 /qs r:1 /qs u

_ 0 3 to dene the maximum injection pressure. In this work the plastic

@t

work has been calculated for the volumes associated with each

where qs is the density of the solid phase, which depends on solid one of the materials involved in the damage zone (i.e. the plastic

grains compressibility. Applying the concept of material derivative, work integrated (Eq. (8)) for the volumes comprising: the core,

the variation in porosity can be expressed by [18]: the external and internal damage zones). The plastic work values

calculated in that way have been used to evaluate the maximum

D/ 1 / Dqs

1 /ev 4 injection pressure (as explained in Section 4). Such kind of criterion

Dt qs Dt

is recommendable because the prediction of the mobilization of the

where ev is the volumetric strain. geological fault is not based on what happens in isolated points, but

on the plastic behavior of the materials in the fault zone.

3.2. Constitutive equations As for the hydraulic problem, this work assumes that the intrin-

sic permeability depends on porosity through the following expo-

It is assumed that the mechanical behavior is controlled by the nential law [21] as follows:

effective stresses (r0 ), dened by: k ki eb//i 9

r_ 0 r_ mpl 5 where /i is the initial porosity, ki is the intrinsic initial permeability

where r_ is the total stress tensor and m is an auxiliary vector tensor and the parameter b controls the effect of porosity on

(mT = 1, 1, 1, 0, 0, 0). The mechanical constitutive model adopted permeability.

in this work is based on the DruckerPrager criterion, where the

yield surface (FY) can be expressed as: 3.3. Computer code

c0 0 The nite element program CODE_BRIGTH solves the equations

FY J 0 p Gh 0 6

tan / described above (i.e. mass balance, momentum balance, and con-

where G is a function of the lode angle (h): stitutive equations) in a fully coupled way. One unknown is asso-

p ! ciated with each one the equations presented above (i.e. u is

2 3 sin /0 associated with (1); liquid pressure is associated with (2); and

Gh 30 7 (4) is used to update /). It is a 3D code that adopts the Newton

3 sin /0

Raphson method to solve the non-linear problem and nite differ-

where J is the 2nd stress invariant of deviatoric stress tensor, p0 is ences to solve the evolution in time. The code has been extensively

the effective mean stress, c0 is the effective cohesion and /0 the validated in different simulations involving coupled geomechani-

effective friction angle. cal problems (e.g. [19,22,23]).

206 L.C. Pereira et al. / Computers and Geotechnics 56 (2014) 202215

4. Numerical modeling of a fault reactivation problem below the water level. The adopted boundary conditions are shown

in the same gure. The initial stress state was dened assuming

The numerical modeling of problems associated with fault reac- geostatic conditions, considering specic rock weight (RHO) equal

tivation has received increasing attention in the last few years (e.g. to 2300 kg/cm3 and K0 equal to 0.45.

[2426]). As mentioned in Section 2, the analyses associated with The geological fault is represented by three materials: core,

the reactivation of geological faults in oil reservoir are generally re- internal damage zone and external damage zone (Fig. 2). The case

lated to the injection of uids (i.e. H2O or CO2) at high pressure. study is based on an actual eld located in Campos Basin, Rio de

Numerical modeling in this area is aimed at estimating the maxi- Janeiro, Brazil. The properties adopted in this model were obtained

mum injection pressure that can be applied to assist oil production from both: log results (to dene ow properties); and triaxial tests

without inducing the reactivation of pre-existing faults or the gen- (to determine mechanical properties). The reservoir average hori-

eration of new fractures. zontal intrinsic permeability (kh) is equal to 50 milidarcy (i.e.

The numerical analyses presented in this paper focus on the 4.934 1014 m2) and the average porosity is equal to 0.2. Follow-

behavior near a fault zone. Fig. 3 shows a typical two-dimensional ing common practice in reservoir simulation, the vertical perme-

geological cross-section associated with an oil reservoir. The rect- ability (kv) has been estimated according to the following ratio:

angle in this gure delimits the domain studied in this paper. kh/10 = kv. Based on laboratory tests, the elastic properties (i.e.

The problem has been solved assuming 2D-plain-strain condi- Youngs modulus E and Poissons ratio m ) presented in

tions, with a rectangular domain 1560 m (wide) and 750 m (deep), Table 1 have been adopted for the reservoir, overburden and

as shown in Fig. 4. In this problem, the fault is quite long and with underburden rocks. The mechanical properties associated with

rather constant gradient, so 2D-plain-strain conditions are appro- the fault zone (i.e. core, internal damage zone and external damage

priate. The reservoir is a 50 m thick consolidated sandstone, over- zone) were estimated through 1st and 2nd after rupture (AR) tests

laid by a 400 m thick deposit of shale. The sea bed is at 130 m [27]. The main mechanical properties (i.e. E; m; c0 ; and /0 ) are also

presented in Table 1. It is worth mentioning that the uncertainty

associated with these parameters is high and the adopted values

for the deterministic case presented in this section correspond to

best estimate values.

The nite element mesh is composed of 6335 nodes and 12,550

triangular quadratic elements. Fig. 5b shows the adopted nite ele-

ment mesh. Fig. 5a presents a detail of the fault region where it can

be observed the high mesh renement adopted there, anticipating

the high gradients to be expected in this part of the domain. Fig. 5c

illustrates the adopted physical model associated with the damage

zones used to dene the numerical model. The fault zone has the

Fig. 3. Typical 2D geological cross-section. The red square indicates the area of following characteristics: a core 5 m thick; an internal damage

inuence of the model analyzed in this study. (For interpretation of the references zone 15 m thick (at each side of the core); and an external damage

to color in this gure legend, the reader is referred to the web version of this zone 25 m thick. The core generally tends to be more rigid and less

article.)

permeable than the adjacent damage zones.

It has been assumed that an injection well is located at the left

of the fault zone and a production well is located at the right

(Fig. 4). This well disposition corresponds to a plausible scenario

in this kind of problem. It has been considered that injection well

operates with a well bottom hole pressure (BHP) up to 3.8 MPa

above the original pressure. It has been assumed that the produc-

tion well operates with a delta pressure of 4.0 MPa.

After some time pressurizing the reservoir, the effective

stresses will reach the yield criterion, jeopardizing the entire

mechanical stability of the formation and leading to the reactiva-

tion of the fault zone. The development of (dilatant) plastic

strains facilitates the migration of uids into the fault zone;

which would compromise the sealing capabilities of this zone.

If this happens, uids will migrate from the reservoir up to the

surface. The challenge is to estimate the maximum allowed

increase in pore pressure that will not trigger the exudation

process. The follow gures illustrate the process of fault

Fig. 4. Geometry of the model: the reservoir is a 50 m thick consolidated sandstone

embedded 400 m and being located in a 130 m water depth region.

reactivation explained above.

Table 1

Mechanical and ow properties for each region considered in the model.

Horizontal permeability (mD) Porosity Young modulus (GPa) Poisson ratio Cohesion (MPa) Friction angle ()

Reservoir 50 0.2 30 0.3

Overburden 1e5 0.01 42 0.37

Underburden 1e5 0.01 26 0.26

Fault

Core 1e5 0.1 8 0.3 1.0 14

IDZ 1e5 0.2 8 0.3 0.8 16

EDZ 1e5 0.3 6 0.25 0.8 16

L.C. Pereira et al. / Computers and Geotechnics 56 (2014) 202215 207

Fig. 5. Mesh adopted for the numerical analysis: (a) detail of the mesh at the fault zone; (b) mesh for the whole analyzed domain; and (c) illustration of the adopted physical

model associated with the damage zones used to dene the numerical model.

Fig. 6. Typical results associated with uid pressure distribution in the reservoir: (a) beginning of the reservoir pressurization; (b) just before the fault reactivation

phenomenon; and (c) just after the fault reactivation.

Fig. 6 shows typical results associated with changes in pore The signicant changes in the stress states may lead to yielding

pressure in the fault zone for the case that there is a lack of control and the development of plastic strains. Fig. 10 shows the concen-

on reservoir pressurization. Fig. 6a shows the beginning of the tration of shear strains in the fault zone.

reservoir pressurization. Fig. 6b presents the adopted scale for con- As mentioned before, a criterion based on the total plastic work

tours plots. Fig. 6c shows the pressure distribution in the reservoir (8) has been adopted in this work to dene the maximum injection

before the fault reactivation phenomenon. Fig. 6d illustrates the pressure. Fig. 11 shows the evolution of the plastic work in the

pressure distribution after the fault reactivation. three different materials of the fault zone (i.e. core, internal dam-

Fig. 7 shows the uid ow (module) in the area under study age zone and external damage zone). The maximum injection pres-

after fault reactivation. It can be observed that leakage takes place sure is dened when some of those materials reach a maximum

predominantly in the internal damage zone.

The reactivation of faults may induce important changes in the

displacement eld. The associated subsidence can damage seabed

infrastructure and (if applicable) surface facilities. Localized defor-

mations can induce the collapse of well casing located close to the

fault planes. Fig. 8 shows the displacement (module) eld pre-

dicted by the model after the fault reactivation process.

Once the activities associated with the exploitation of the reser-

voir start, the changes in the pore pressure (i.e. Fig. 6) modify the

initial stress state. Fig. 9 shows the concentration of shear stress

in the damage zone. As expected, a concentration of stresses is pre-

dicted near the fault plane; which is mainly induced by the con-

trast between the stiffness of the different materials involved in

the analysis. Fig. 7. Module of uid ow in the area under study just after fault reactivation.

208 L.C. Pereira et al. / Computers and Geotechnics 56 (2014) 202215

Fig. 8. Displacements eld just after fault reactivation: (a) horizontal displacement; (b) vertical displacement; and (c) displacement module.

that a system can behave randomly. It is also known as:

stochastic uncertainty; Type A uncertainty; or irreducible

uncertainty.

Epistemic uncertainty is the uncertainty that results from the

lack of knowledge about a system and/or its properties. It is also

known as: subjective uncertainty; Type B uncertainty; or reduc-

ible uncertainty. Evidence theory is one of the possible

approaches for dealing with epistemic uncertainty, as it is

explained later on.

Fig. 9. Distribution of shear stresses in the damage zone.

Traditionally, the probability theory has been used to analyze

problems involving these two types of uncertainties. It is known

that the probability theory is a proper framework to quantify

uncertainties when dealing with aleatory variables. However, re-

cent contributions have shown that probabilistic methods may

not be the more convenient ones for analysis involving epistemic

uncertainties [8]. Other alternative methods, based for example

on evidence theory, seem more suitable for this kind of analysis [8].

Probabilistic analysis requires information about the probable

events. When this information is not available, the uniform

distribution function is generally used based on the Principle of

Insufcient Reason [28]. This principle can be interpreted as fol-

lows: in simple events, where the probability density function is

not known, it can be assume that the data is equiprobable. This

Fig. 10. Distribution of plastic shear strains in the damage zone.

assumption is very appropriate for random variables, but when

dealing with epistemic ones, it is perhaps too approximate.

The evidence theory is an alternative to the probability theory

value of the total plastic work equal to 102 [kg(m/s)2]. It can be when attempting to quantify epistemic uncertainties (i.e., when

seen (Fig. 11) that, after this value is attained, the plastic work in- model input variables are considered reducible). The potential ben-

creases signicantly, so it can be assumed that the fault is et of the evidence theory is that it allows a less restrictive descrip-

reactivated. tion of the uncertainty, when compared with probability theory.

For this specic case, the maximum allowed pore pressure The uncertainty quantication through the evidence theory is com-

increment obtained was 3.2 MPa. However this result is related putationally more demanding, than the probabilistic method [8].

to the particular parameters adopted in this analysis. A more gen- The additional computation effort comes mainly from the numer-

eral study accounting for the uncertainties associated with the dif- ical optimization process needed to compute the belief and plausi-

ferent parameters involved in this kind of problems is presented bility functions (details in Section 6.1). This paper proposes the use

later on the paper (Section 7). Next section presents some back- of ANNs to speed up this process, as it is explained later on.

ground information related to uncertainty quantication. A further assumption in classical probability theory is inherent

in the additivity axiom. This axiom implies that information about

5. Uncertainty quantication a particular event is associated with the knowledge of the comple-

ment of this event (i.e. the probability associated with the occur-

Uncertainty Quantication (UQ) is becoming an essential com- rence of a given event also informs about the probability of no

ponent of analyses associated with complex problems dealing with occurrence of this event [8]). Although the additivity assumption

limited information. The uncertainty dual nature is described by and the principle of insufcient reason may be appropriate when

Helton [8] as: modeling random events associated with random uncertainty,

L.C. Pereira et al. / Computers and Geotechnics 56 (2014) 202215 209

Fig. 11. Evolution of the plastic work in the three different materials of the fault zone.

these restrictions are questionable when dealing with situations input parameters without running the full factorial design. The

involving epistemic uncertainty [8]. Examples of these types of sit- subset is chosen so as to exploit the sparsity-of-effects principle

uations are: (a) little information about the model input parame- to expose information about the most important features of the

ters is available; (b) the available information is ambiguous or fault reactivation problem, while using a fraction of the effort

contradictory. required in a full factorial design in terms of experimental runs

In cases where the available information is not enough to quan- and resources. The Table 2 presents some of the 15 variables

tify the uncertainty with a probability function, it is sensible to considered in the sensitivity analysis. The Monte Carlo numerical

consider a possible variation range of the variable dened by inter- simulations show that eight parameters were the most inuential

vals, or sets of possible values. The denition of a range (or a set) of ones in terms of the maximum injection pressure. The tornado plot

probable values associated with a given variable implies that the presented in Fig. 12 shows the impact of the main variables on this

Principle of Insufcient Reason is not enforced. A priori, probabili- problem according to the sensitivity analysis.

ties can be established to sets, without having pre-established The vertical axis presents the variables considered in this study

assumptions about the probabilities of the individual events. Fur- and the horizontal axis represents the weighted inuence of those

thermore, the additive axiom is not enforced, therefore the com- variables on the nal result. The sum of those coefcient for all the

plementary sets of probabilities measures do not need to sum 1 variables considered in the analysis is equal to one. The sign is dic-

(when this occurs, this framework converges to the traditional tated by the way in which this variable impact on the nal result.

probabilistic representation) [8]. For example, the relative weight of C2 (cohesion of the external

According to Helton et al. [29,30], there are three main theories damage zone) is +0.3. This means that an increase of C2 is associ-

from which the uncertainty representation has been approached ated with an increment (due to the + sign) of the maximum allow-

by intervals: (i) imprecise probabilities; (ii) possibility theory; able injection pressure and the relative impact (when compared

and (iii) evidence theory, also known as DempsterShafer theory with the other variables) is 30%. A negative sign implies that an in-

(e.g. [3133]). This study adopts the evidence theory to quantify crease in the value of this variable is related with a decrease of the

the uncertainties associated with the fault reactivation problem. maximum injection pressure. The other variables presented in this

The main motivations behind the selection of the evidence theory plot are as follows NIRES (the reservoir Poissons ratio); ERES (the

are: (a) it is a sound theory; (b) it is easy to correlate evidence the- reservoir Youngs modulus); AA2 (the friction angle of the external

ory and the probability theory; (c) the large number of successful

applications reported in the last few years (e.g. [3436]); and (d)

the versatility of the theory to represent and combine different Table 2

types of evidences obtained from multiple sources. More informa- Mechanical and ow properties considered in the sensitivity analysis.

tion about evidence theory can be found elsewhere [3739]. Property Symbol Uncertainty

Characterization

Reservoir Poissons ratio NIRES Uniform (0.20.4)

6. Uncertainty quantication in fault reactivation Reservoir Youngs modulus (GPa) ERES Uniform (2050)

External damage zone /0 () AA2 Uniform (1430)

External damage zone cohesion C2 Uniform (0.81.2)

In this work, typical results obtained from a UQ study using the

(MPa)

well-known probability theory are compared against the results External damage zone Poissons ratio NI2 Uniform (0.20.4)

obtained from the analyses based on the evidence theory. The case External damage zone Youngs E2 Uniform (510)

presented in Section 4 is used in the analyses. In complex problems modulus (GPa)

(like this one) involving a large number of variables, it is highly Denes K0 = NIRIG/(1 NIRIG) NIRIG Uniform (0.30.34)

Specic rock weight (kg/m3) RHO Uniform (22002600)

recommended to perform a sensitivity analysis to identify the

Reservoir permeability (mD) KRES Uniform (2080)

key variables that will control the problem [4042]. The sensitivity External damage zone k (mD) KDAMAGE2 Uniform (1e52e5)

study will allow focusing the uncertainty analysis on those vari- Core permeability (mD) KCORE Uniform (1e52e5)

ables that have a major impact on the model response. In this work Core cohesion (MPa) CCORE Uniform (0.20.8)

Core Poissons ratio NICORE Uniform (0.20.4)

the sensitivity analysis has been based on the Monte-Carlo exper-

Core Youngs modulus (GPa) ECORE Uniform (510)

imental design technique proposed by Martens et al. [43]. Using Core /0 () AACORE Uniform (1430)

this kind of approach it is possible to reveal the more inuential

210 L.C. Pereira et al. / Computers and Geotechnics 56 (2014) 202215

Fig. 12. Tornado diagram showing the results of the sensitivity analysis of the most inuential parameters respect to the pore pressure increment.

damage zone); NI2 (the external damage zone Poissons ratio); E2 The sensitivity analysis presented above was used to select the

(the external damage zone Youngs modulus); RHO (the specic variables to be included in the uncertainty quantication study

rock weight, used to dene the initial vertical stress); KRES, KDAM- using both probabilistic and evidence theories.

AGE2 and KCORE are the permeabilities of the reservoir, damage There are different alternatives to combine evidence [29]. Typ-

zone 2 and core zones, respectively. NIRIG denes the K0 (i.e. the ically, they can be subdivided in 4 groups: (i) consonant evidence,

coefcient of earth pressure at rest is used to dene the initial hor- when multiples sources agree in all subsets ranges; (ii) consistence

izontal stress). Fig. 12 presents the eight more inuential ones only evidence, where at least there is one element that is common to all

(i.e. with a relative impact of |0.1%| or higher), plus the three per- subsets; (iii) arbitrary evidence, there is no element common to all

meabilities mentioned above. subsets, but some subsets may have elements in common; and (iv)

Interestingly, the core and internal damage zone properties disjoint evidence, where any two subsets have no elements in com-

were not very inuential on the model response. This is because mon. In this wok, it was assumed arbitrary evidence based on ex-

the external damage zone (initially sealant) controls the failure perts knowledge. Geologists and reservoir engineers working in

of the fault zone. It is also remarkable that some variables with this topic were asked to dene the ranges of each uncertainty

high uncertainties (such as permeability) have a minor impact on parameter and also the weights of each interval. Using the Demp-

the maximum pore water pressure that can be injected. It can be sters rule of combination [32], the weights (or basic probability

observed (Fig. 12) that the impact of the permeability of the differ- assignment, BPA) presented in Fig. 13 were obtained. This informa-

ent materials is around 0.02%. This can be attributed to the fact that tion is used in the evidence theory to calculate the belief and plau-

the maximum injection pressure that may induce the fault reacti- sibility functions as explained in the following sections.

vation is mainly controlled by the mechanical problem. Variations Uniform density functions were assumed for the analysis using

on the permeability values may have an impact on the time at the probability theory. Fig. 13 shows that the same values of the in-

which the fault reactivation process may start, but its inuence put parameters are adopted when applying the probability and evi-

on the maximum predicted injection pressure is rather marginal. dence theories. However, it is different to say that a given model

Fig. 13. Range of variation of the different model parameters incorporated in the uncertainty quantication analysis. For the case of evidence theory the weight are also

presented. This data was dened after experts opinions.

L.C. Pereira et al. / Computers and Geotechnics 56 (2014) 202215 211

X

parameter falls in the interval [a,b], than to say that the value has ~ 6 y

PlY y mEY A 13

an uniform distribution in [a,b]. A\Ay 0

6.1. Belief and plausibility functions

mation that indicates that a statement is true, and plausibility is a

measure of the amount of information that indicates that a state-

The rst work in evidence theory was done by Shafer [32] as an

ment could be true.

expansion of Dempster [31] approach. In a nite discrete space, the

If one considers the universe of all probability distributions that

evidence theory or DempsterShafer theory (DST) can be inter-

are consistent with the focal elements and BPAs that dene an evi-

preted as the generalization of the probability theory for the case

dence space on a set XE. Then, for a subset U (i.e. y ~ 6 y) of X, Bel(U)

in which the probabilities are assigned to sets of values. In

is the smallest possible probability that could occur for U over the

traditional probability theory, evidence is associated with only

set of indicated distributions and Pl(U) is the largest possible prob-

one possible event. In the DST, the evidence may be associated

ability that could occur for U over the set of indicated distributions.

with multiple events (i.e. sets of events). As a result, the DST evi-

Central to this is the idea that all probability distributions that do

dence is presented with a higher level of abstraction, i.e. without

not violate the assumed properties of the evidence space are under

inferring a prior probability distribution of the input variables.

consideration.

When evidence is sufcient to assign probabilities to single events,

These concepts can be easily explained using the simple exam-

the DempsterShafer model falls in traditional probabilistic

ple as follows. Suppose that for the proposition that says the fault

formulation.

is reactivated there are a belief of 0.5 and a plausibility of 0.8. This

One of the most important features of the evidence theory is

means that the existing evidence allows to strongly state that the

that the model is designed to handle different levels of accuracy

proposition is true with a condence of 0.5. However, the evidence

(i.e. regarding the available data), and no further assumption is

contrary to that hypothesis (i.e. the fault is not reactivated) only

needed to represent them. It also allows the direct representation

has a condence of 0.2. The remaining mass of 0.3 (i.e. the gap be-

of the uncertainty responses of the system. For example if the input

tween the 0.5 supporting evidence on the one hand, and the 0.2

variable is imprecise, it can be characterized by a set or range of

contrary evidence on the other) means that the fault could either

values and, consequently, the resulting output will also be a set

be reactivated or not. This interval represents the level of uncer-

(or a range of values).

tainty based on the evidence in the system.

Two core concepts in evidence theory of Basic Probability

The denition of the belief and plausibility functions for the

Assignment (BPA) and focal elements are introduced as follows:

model output has been done through an optimization process.

(i) the BPA for a set is the amount of probability that can be as-

The main component of the optimization analysis is presented in

signed to that set but cannot be decomposed into additional prob-

the following section.

abilities for subsets of that set; and (ii) focal elements are those

sets that have nonzero BPAs. This then leads naturally to a clear

distinction between an evidence space for a set XE of possible out- 6.2. Optimization algorithm to compute CPF and CBF

comes and a probability space for a set XP of possible outcomes.

Suppose a model represented by: The belief and plausibility functions are dened for the input

variables, x. For each input variable it is necessary to specify inter-

y f x 10

vals (and the associated bounds) and Basic Probability Assign-

where, x = [x1, x2, x3, . . . , xnX] is the vector of the input variables and ments (BPA). A brief description of the necessary steps to

y = [y1, y2, y3, . . . , ynY] is the vector associated with the model re- compute these two functions of the response is given below (based

sults. The probability theory requires that uncertainty associated e.g. in the data presented in Fig. 13).

with x should be dened by a density function (e.g. normal, triangu-

lar or uniform). To characterize the uncertainty in x is necessary to (1) Combine intervals of each input variable into combination

establish a probability space X P ; X P ; mPX where XP is the sample cells (for example, if a case has 2 input variables and each

space of possible values of x; X P is the set of subsets of XP chosen of these is dened by 3 intervals, the number of combination

appropriately (r-algebra); and mPX is a probability factor [29]. cells is equal to 9). The total number of such cells is given by:

Thus, the uncertainty in y is estimated by a cumulative distribu-

tion function (CDF). niv

Y

Z X

nS ncell ninti 14

~ 6 y

proby df xjydX dX df xjy=nS 11 i1

XP i1

where: ncell = total number of combination cells, nint(i) = number of

where y ~ is the expected value; nS is the number of samples; intervals of input variable i, niv = number of input variables. The ba-

d(f(x)|y = 1) if f x 6 y and d(f(x)|y) = 0 if f(x) > y. sic probability assigned to each cell is the product of the BPAs of the

Conversely the evidence theory does not impose a rigid struc- involved intervals.

ture on the uncertainty characterization. The evidence theory is a (2) Perform the realizations involving all the possible combina-

more exible approach. To characterize the uncertainty in x it is tions dened above. For each cell solve the following two

necessary to dene an evidence space: X P ; X P ; mPX X E ; X E ; mEX optimization problems have to be solved to nd the lower

where XP = XE is the sample space of possible values of x but (lb) and upper (ub) bounds of the response:

X P X E . In probability theory, if a subset A belongs to X P the prob-

lb DPminj Minimize DPx 15

abilities associated to its complement Ac can be obtained from the

additive axiom (i.e. the complementary sets of probabilities have

to sum 1); while in evidence theory, the uncertainty in y is esti- ub DPmaxj Maximize DPx 16

mated by two uncertainty functions: belief and plausibility func-

tions [29]. where DP(x) = reactivation pore pressure increment modeled

X through a previously trained neural network; (xl)j and (xu)j are the

~ 6 y

BelY y mEY A 12 bounds of the input variables intervals associated with combination

AAy

cell j. The adopted neural network is explained in Section 6.3.

212 L.C. Pereira et al. / Computers and Geotechnics 56 (2014) 202215

The ub and lb pressures obtained after the optimization process 10 sigmoid neurons followed by an output layer of linear neurons.

(i.e. Eqs. (15) and (16)) are used to plot the plausibility and belief The linear output layer is most often used for function tting

functions. These results are not organized in a particular order. (or non-linear regression) problems.

They need to be organized in ascending order, as it is explained When training multilayer networks, the general practice is to

below. rst divide the data into three subsets. The rst subset is the train-

ing set, which is used for computing the gradient and updating the

(3) Sort in ascending order the lower bounds of the output network weights and biases. The second subset is the validation

response intervals obtained in Step 2. Once the data is orga- set. The error on the validation set is monitored during the training

nized, to obtain the plausibility function the lb pressure process. When the network begins to over t the data, the error on

(Step 2) calculated per each combination (Step 1) is plotted the validation set typically begins to rise. The network weights and

against the corresponding cumulative probability. The belief biases are saved at the minimum of the validation set error. The

function is plotted in a similar way, except that one should test set error is not used during training, but it is used to compare

use the up pressures (also obtained in Step 2). different models. It is also useful to plot the test set error during

the training process. If the error on the test set reaches a minimum

6.3. Neural network at a signicantly different iteration number than the validation set

error, this might indicate a poor division of the data set.

The optimization process explained in Section 6.2 involves a As discussed earlier, 2000 coupled simulations had been per-

large number of realizations. Different options are available to formed to create an extensive database. The ratios for training,

perform these simulations. A numerical code can be used testing and validation are 0.7, 0.15 and 0.15, respectively. Fig. 14

(e.g. CODE_BRIGHT for the analysis presented in this paper), or presents the t for these three subsets and also the global tting:

alternatively, any properly calibrated proxy (capable of performing (a) results of the training; (b) validation tting; (c) test results

the numerical analyses) can be used to reduce the high CPU- and (d) the global tting. Based on these results, the performance

demand typically associated with the optimization process of ANN for this problem can be considered very satisfactory and,

involving multiple variables. In this work an articial neuronal therefore, this ANN can be used as a proxy to save CPU-time.

network has been adopted as proxy.

Neural networks are composed of simple elements operating in

parallel. Commonly, neural networks are adjusted in the way that a 7. Results

particular input leads to a specic target output. The network is ad-

justed based on a comparison between the output and the target This section focuses on the use of the evidence theory for esti-

until these values become similar. Different types of ANNs have mating the maximum injection pressure in problems related to

been proposed for forecasting and modeling engineering problems oil production. Considering the limited (and in some cases lack

(e.g. [4447]). A feedforward neural network with back propaga- of) information regarding many parameters involved in this kind

tion was trained in this study. The ANN has one hidden layer of of analysis, it is highly recommendable to dene via an uncertainty

Fig. 14. Main results related to the Articial Neural Network tting: (a) results of the training; (b) validation of the tting; (c) test results; and (d) the global tting.

L.C. Pereira et al. / Computers and Geotechnics 56 (2014) 202215 213

analysis the maximum pressure at which a uid can be injected in analysis), it is considered that the sealing capability of the fault

a reservoir. is breached and any additional pore pressure increment could

Fig. 15a presents the main results comparing the use of proba- trigger the fault reactivation process. For example, if the maximum

bility and evidence theories for uncertainty quantication associ- injection pressure obtained from the deterministic case (i.e.

ated with the fault reactivation problem presented in Section 5. Pl = 3.2 MPa, Section 4) is analyzed in the context of the results pre-

The cumulative distribution function (CDF, Eq. (13)) was obtained sented in Fig. 15, according to the classical probability theory, it

after the application of the probability theory, computed according can be concluded that the probability of a fault reactivation when

to [6]. The evidence theory was used to compute the cumulative the uid is injected at 3.2 MPa is around 0.20. However, according

belief function (CBF, Eq. (14)) and the cumulative plausibility func- to the evidence theory the probability of a fault reactivation can be

tion (CPF, Eq. (15)). Complementary cumulative distribution func- between 0.65 (as a maximum value) and 0.00 (as a lower bound).

tion (CCDF), complementary cumulative belief function (CCBF) and According to the classical probability theory, the probability of the

complementary cumulative plausibility function (CCPF) were di- fault to remain stable is 0.8 if an increment of the injection pres-

rectly obtained from the CDF, CBF and CPF, respectively. Fig. 15a sure equal to 3.2 is applied, and the associated degree of belief ob-

shows the results in terms of probability of fault reactivation (i.e. tained with the epistemic theory is 0.35 (Fig. 15b). It can be seen

cumulative probability to be lower) and it should be used when that the evidence theory provides more complete information to

one wants to look at the probability or belief or plausibility that assist the decision maker.

a give increment of the injection pressure will reactive the fault. One can also use these plots to analyze the maximum pressure

Fig. 15b presents the outputs of the same analyses but in terms that can be applied based on a given probability, for example lets

of probability of fault reactivation (i.e. complementary cumulative assume that 0.10 is the largest possible probability that an injec-

results, probability to be higher), and it should be used to analyze tion project manager can take respect to the reactivation of a fault.

the complementary case, that is, when one wants to check that the It is important to remember (see Section 6.1) that, Bel(U) is the

fault will not reactivate for a given increment of the injection pres- smallest possible probability that could occur for U over the set

sure. The complementary cumulative results are more appropriate of indicated distributions and Pl(U) is the largest possible probabil-

when the likelihood of exceeding a value is under consideration. ity that could occur for U over the set of indicated distributions.

In this work the activation criterion is a function of the total Therefore, considering rst the CDF, the increment in the injection

plastic work (Eq. (8)). When in any of fault regions the plastic work pressure can be as higher as 3.0 MPa (i.e. intersection of 0.10 prob-

exceeds a given maximum value (set as a tolerance in this ability with CDF). Looking at the evidence theory (i.e. CPF and CBF

Fig. 15. Main curves obtained from the probability and evidence theories. (a) Cumulative distribution function (CDF); cumulative belief function (CBF) and cumulative

plausibility function (CPF). (b) Complementary cumulative distribution function (CCDF); complementary cumulative belief function (CCBF) and complementary cumulative

plausibility function (CCPF). CDF and CCDF were obtained from the application of probability theory. CBF, CPF, CCBF and CCPF were obtained from the application of the

evidence theory. Note that 3.2 MPa corresponds to increment of the injection pressure obtained from the deterministic analysis.

214 L.C. Pereira et al. / Computers and Geotechnics 56 (2014) 202215

curves), one may conclude that for the same given probability (i.e. the Reservoir Geomechanics Group at PETROBRAS to perform this

0.10) for pressure increments equal or lower than 2.0 MPa the fault work. The expert opinion of the members of this group has been

will reactivate with a plausibility of 0.10. Note that for that incre- instrumental to develop the data base use in this study; special

ment of injection pressure (i.e. 2.0 MPa) the degree of belief that thanks to (amongst others): Alvaro Maia da Costa, Luis Carlos de

the fault will reactivate is equal to 0.0. Similar analyses can be done Sousa Jr., Claudio Amaral, Claudio Lima and Erick Slis. Finally, we

looking at the complementary cumulative probabilities (i.e. would like to thank the reviewers of this paper for their comments

Fig. 15b). It can be interpreted that the design of the injection pres- and suggestions.

sure based on the combination of CBF and CPF curves will be, ini-

tially, conservative (and perhaps safer) when compared respect to

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