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Renewable resources concession-based funding

mechanism for attaining large scale power plants


Santiago Pilaquinga, ngel Vaca & Pal Vsquez1

Abstract- The construction of electric power generation of private investment. While the Government could continue
megaprojects involves great efforts that governments can hardly this trend, it is essential to analyze new mechanisms to achieve
handle with its own economic resources, and therefore it is the development of generating capacity, hopefully with better
necessary to consider the participation of foreign investment, conditions than traditional loan and payment ones.
whether public or private. The feasibility of a funding mechanism The proposal of this paper relates the energy needed for the
that would make possible the building of a hydroelectric project - industries and the energy requirements of a country rich in
Ro Santiago- located in Ecuador (3,600 MW), is studied in this renewable resources; so that, both supply their needs, and both
paper. Through the evaluation of economical indexes and technical parts have financial benefits with this transaction.
parameters, it is evaluated a methodology to receive funds of
foreign investors (one or more companies that use permanently
After technical analysis made, finally it will be determined the
amount of the total capacity to be delivered to the investor
high amounts of electricity) in change of energy and firm capacity
company and the period of time, such that the transaction is
of the hydro electrical plant to be built. The established
attractive to both the investor and Ecuador. It should be noticed
methodology and the obtained results, represent an interesting
that at the end of the period, the investment will be covered
option for large consumers of electricity in the regional electricity
entirely by the country and, consequently, it could use the total
market and also for countries seeking to develop their generating power plant capacity.
capacity with not enough economic capacity to build them.
Keywords concession, funding mechanism, generation planning, II. DEMAND AND ELECTRICAL GENERATION IN
investments, large scale, renewable, resources. ECUADOR

I. INTRODUCTION A. ELECTRICITY DEMAND.

Activities such as large scale mining, cement plants, refineries, The execution of energy efficiency programs, the incorporation
sugar processing, among others, use electric power intensively. of industrial loads, The Refinery of the Pacific, the program of
Hence, to meet demand requires one or more large and medium migration to induction stoves, among others, and considering the
size generation plants. current economy of the country and different external factors of
the society, the forecasting of the demand is expected to be
An alternative for countries with large renewable resources and similar to the shown in TABLE I.
that might be interesting for these companies is to acquire the
TABLE I
concession of power of the local national system interconnected FORECAST OF ANNUAL DEMAND FOR ELECTRICITY GENERATION IN S.N.I,
or, with the offer of energy of neighboring countries available as SLOWER GROWTH SCENARIO [1].
surplus for export.
Year GWh
Ecuador, as a country with large rivers, is ideal for the
2013 20,056
construction of hydroelectric megaprojects. Several of those 2014 20,829
have already been implemented, others are in the construction 2015 23,553
process and there are new projects that still are in the portfolio 2016 28,088
of potential energy inventory. 2017 34,137
2018 35,328
One of the future megaprojects, which are arranged pre- 2019 36,645
2020 37,866
feasibility studies, is the Santiago River Hydroelectric Project - 2021 38,927
SRHP, it is located in the province of Morona Santiago, and 2022 39,935
takes advantage of the flow of the river with the same name. 2023 41,052
2024 42,204
The project that represents the scenario of analysis in this 2025 43,393
document, has a capacity of 3600 MW, divided in four stages of 2026 44,631
2027 45,909
900 MW each [3], because the hydrographic characteristics of 2028 47,219
the area and the demand requirements. The total project cost is 2029 48,571
estimated at around US$ 4000 million. 2030 49,968
2031 51,193
Currently, the Ecuadorian Electricity Sector supplies the 2032 52,682
demand with plants built by the Government, with a small share

1
Escuela Politcnica Nacional EPN Quito, Ecuador.
Email: pvasquez@ieee.org
As the demand increases, power requirements in distribution 2017 398 39
systems will do too, so do electric utilities, and reinforcement in 2018 314 15
the stages transmission and generation of the National 2019 456 0
Interconnected System - SNI [1]. Due to the scope of this work, 2020 399 0
only the increasing of the generation will be analyzed. 2021 257 0
2022 0 0
B. ENERGY SUPPLY Total 6,012 1,072

In Fig.1 it is projected the evolution of the generation, divided


by type of technology, for the period 2013 - 2022. It clearly In this set of projects, the latest project to be implemented is the
shows that the energy matrix to the future is based primarily on Paute - Cardenillo Hydroelectric Project, which is expected to
the contribution of hydropower, the result of the achievement of start operating in late 2021. Whereby a full installation
several major hydro electrical projects, currently under accumulates in the period 2013-2022 of 5.23 GW, with the
construction or final studies [1]. predominance of hydroelectric generation with more than 30
plants. The equivalent investment rises to US$ 7,083 million.

III. STATE OF ART DETERMINING INDIVIDUAL


PARAMETERS
Once having the demand data (whether historical or short-term
projection) and available energy resources to meet demand,
points of interest in which the installed generation will not meet
the demand growth are identified, and here the analysis begins.

A. DEMAND FORECASTING
Fig. 1. Composition of Generation by Technology [1] Econometric models explain the behavior of one or more
variables in terms of others through the estimation of a
Santiago River Hydroelectric Project runs into operation in 2022 mathematical relationship. In the model only variables that can
with its first phase as detailed in TABLE II, with a capacity be quantified or valued are included. Such models are composed
3,600 MW in four stages of 900 MW [3], and an average energy of a deterministic part. The stochastic component is called
of 3,900 GWh/year per stage. residual or error; this component includes those that are
considered irrelevant variables, variables that despite its
TABLE II
influence are not possible to measure, and measurement errors.
OPERATIVE ANALYSIS OF EXPANSION PLAN OF The method of estimation of econometric models used in this
GENERATION 2014-2023 [2]
study is the OLS, with the following description of calculation:
Average
Operation Power
Generation Plant Energy
since [MW]
[GWh/year]
ene-22 Santiago G8, Fase I 900 3,902
jul-22 Santiago G8, Fase II 900 3,902
ene-23 Santiago G8, Fase III 900 3,902
jul-23 Santiago G8, Fase IV 900 3,902

C. FINANCING FOR THE EXPANSION OF GENERATION


Fig. 2. Result of the model
The Generation Expansion Plan 2013 2022 considers an
investment by the Ecuadorian Government of US$ 6,012 million Where:
and US$ 1,072 million from private generation companies.
However, the Ecuadorian Government does not plan to invest in Yt : dependent variables.
generation projects after that period. Xt : independent variables.
t : random error term.
TABLE III Regarding the coefficients:
INVESTMENTS FOR THE EXPANSION PLAN OF GENERATION 2013-2022,
MMUS$ [1]
: intercept to the (0,0) point.
^ They indicate specific values taken once estimated
parameters.
Year Public Private
2013 1,293 434 With the OLS, one can find the function that best fits the points
2014 1,431 340 cloud given by the observed data, minimizing the sum of
2015 792 136 squared errors. In this case, there is a single explanatory variable
2016 672 103
so that the function is a straight line. The residue or error t arises
from the sample or analyzed dataset, therefore can be calculated.

(17)

In the estimated model shall be evaluated:

The sign of the estimated coefficients must be consistent Fig. 3. Demand forecast and Generation until 2040.
with that expected by theory.
Goodness of fitted curve: measures the portion of the To demonstrate the need for generation and the year in which it
variability in Y that is explained by the regression. The more is needed, in other words, the date of entry into operation to
the R2 is closest to one the better the estimation. supply the country's demand, it is necessary to define the
Based on the remainder generated by the model estimation construction scheme, stages of the plant, energy that can be
of OLS checking: delivered to the investor (without affecting the supply of the own
No autocorrelation: a period errors are unrelated to the system demand), and the period of time in which this energy can
errors or remainders from previous periods. be supplied.
Homoscedasticity: the variance of remainders should be
kept constant in all periods. A. EARLY PLANNING
Normality.
As shown in Fig. 3, in the early years of the entry into operation
Correct functional relationship is linear.
of SRHP, Ecuador does not require electric power generated by
the SRHP neither for consumption nor for reaching reserve
As described, the demand forecasting of the analysis period is levels. So that, the country can built the plant several years prior
obtained.
to its energy starts to be needed, and to deliver part of the energy
generated by the SRHP, as payment for the private investment
TABLE IV
DEMAND FORECAST USING THE OLS METHOD, LESS GROWTH SCENARIO. made to finance the construction of SRHP, for an agreed term.
Year GWh
2033 52,737
2034 54,340
2035 55,943
2036 57,546
2037 59,150
2038 60,753
2039 62,356
2040 63,959

IV. ELECTRICAL GENERATION AND DEMAND


FORECASTING IN ECUADOR.
According to the Master Plan of Electrification, Ecuador will Fig. 4. Demand forecast of the country and generation, including SRHP.
invest in projects for expansion of generation until 2021 (See
TABLE III). That means that by 2022 the country is expected Thus, in the case of Ecuador, it is required about 1,600 MW by
have available 42,701 GWh of electrical energy to meet the 2025, so it is acceptable that the private investor would use all
projected demand of 39,935 GWh (See TABLE I). energy that can be extracted from the plant in the years 2023 and
2024. All these results, proposes even the size and technology
The Project Paute-Cardenillo is the last to be built in Ecuador, of the central to be built. So that the distribution of the
its generating capacity would remain constant the total Ecuador contribution of the plant will be as the shown in TABLE V.
capacity at 42,701 GWh, from 2022 until the entrance of a new
plant. TABLE V
POWER OF SRHP FOR INVESTORS AND ECUADOR STABLISHED IN THE
In this specific situation, as we can see in Fig. 3, the power AGREEMENT.
generation would be insufficient to meet demand in 2025
onwards.
MW, MW,
Year Detail
ECUADOR PRIVATE
2023 0 1800 SRHP Fase I y Fase II
2024 0 3600 SRHP Fase I, II, III, IV
2025 on-
1600 2000 SRHP Fase I, II, III, IV
wards
In this analysis case, the Santiago Project meets the technical In case of projects composed exclusively of costs, the only way
requirements of the model. With the construction of SRHP and to calculate this indicator is by comparing alternatives of
once established agreements between investors and Ecuador, incremental analysis of their cash flows.
total electricity generation in Ecuador would increase
significantly in 2025, the year in which it is required the energy C. NET PRESENT VALUE - NPV
to supply the country's demand.
NPV estimation entails to transform to present value all
During the years 2023 and 2024 Ecuador would not have deficit, components of the cash flow of a project by using a discount
so the power generation in that period belonged to foreign rate. If the total investment (So) is payed at year zero, the net
investors, being able to fully supply its energy needs. The present value is the difference between the investment and the
composition of the complete demand is shown in Fig. 5. future cash flow, evaluated in the same year zero. The NPV
represents the absolute amount by which the income equivalent
of a cash flow exceed, or are overcome, by equivalent expenses
of the same flow.

1 2 3
= + (1+) + (1+) 2 + (1+)3 + + (1+) (3)


= + (1+)
1
(4)

Where:
Fig. 5. Projection of demand and generation with the SRHP once established
agreements between investors and Ecuador. NPV = NPV of the operation NPV investments (5)

Note, however, that from 2030, Ecuador would need new In other terms:
sources of electricity to meet the demand requirement, even if
the total capacity of the Rio Santiago is received. In this case,
the present methodology can be replicated again, and with the NPV = (NPV incomes of sales NPV operative costs) - NPV investments (6)
learned experiences, the methodology will be adapted for market
to be used in, and once established, it can be used every time it D. INTERNAL RATE OF RETURN - IRR
is required to increase the generation capacity. The IRR is defined as the interest rate "i" which reduces to zero
Once are defined the technical aspects, the initial economic and the present value of a series of income and expenses.
financial parameters. One can begin with the calculations of the
main indexes, detailed below; thus, finally can be identified the
generation rates to be covered by the investor and the country,
and the distribution in different stages of the distribution, i.e.
project construction, operation start, redistribution of generation
of the plant, concession period of the plant, and remaining useful
life of the plant.

B. COST BENEFIT RELATIONSHIP - CBR


CBR is the ratio of the present value of operating results (sales
incomes minus operating costs) divided by the present value of
Fig. 6. Present Value vs. Interest Rate
the investment cost.
The costs have positive sign since the object of this indicator is In economic terms, the IRR represents the percentage or interest
to assess, in present value, the rate at which the benefits rate earned on the unrecovered balance of an investment; so that,
outweigh or are outweighed by the costs of the project. at the end of the project life this balance is zero. The balance
unrecovered investment at any point of time of the life of the
CBR = PV of the operation / PV investments (1) project is the fraction of the original investment still unrecovered
at that time. The concept of the IRR is equivalent to the interest
( )
= (2) rate of a loan, which is applied to the unpaid balance.

The decision rule is: if IRR of the evaluation is greater than or
If the CBR is greater than one, one can make the decision to start equal to minimum acceptable rate of return of the business -
the project. Note that if this index is equal to 1, the net present MARR, the construction of the project is profitable.
value and the investments are equivalent to zero, which means
that it is the bottom optimal point of the project.
E. YEAR OF CAPITAL RECOVERING - YCR Where:
This method involves finding the time in which the benefits are
the same than the expenditures. From this point, the project VPI = Present value of investments referred to zero year, i.e. a
begins to be profitable. year that serves as the basis for economic analysis, taking into
account the discount rate set for the study.
=1 (1 + ) = =1 (1 + ) (7)
(ATC-AIC+1)
VPI = J=1 Ij (1 + i)-j (11)
Where:
VPG = Present value generation, is calculated from the average
Bj = profit of the year j annual generation obtained from the estimation of the operation
Ej = expenditures of the year j of the hydroelectric project and referred to the zero year.
i = discount rate (%)
n = operational life (years) (1+)()
=

(12)
F. UNIT COST TYPE OF THE INSTALLATION OF A CENTRAL
GENERATION - KW INSTALLABLE Where:

It is the referential cost of each installable kW, it allows to VPI = Present value of the investments (millions of US$)
estimate the total cost of the installation of a power generation, VPG = Present value of the generation (GWh)
considering its capacity and technology AIC = Year of the beginning of the construction of the plant
The CkWI, is the ratio of the total project investment and installed ATC = Year of the end of operational life
capacity. AIO = Year of the beginning of operational life
I1, I2, I3,Ik = Investment payments (millions of US$)
1000 N = operational life (aos)
= (8)
i = annual interest rate (%)
GMA = annual average generation (GWh)
Where: FRC = Capital recovery rate

CkWI = Cost of the power installed I. LEVELED COSTS FOR MAINTENANCE AND OPERATION
I = Total investment (millions of US$)
P = Installed power (MW) The leveled cost of kWh for operation and maintenance - CNO&M
is the sum of the components: fixed operating costs, fixed costs,
G. TOTAL COST IN TERMS OF ENERGY TO GENERATE - KWH and variable costs of maintenance.
LEVEL
CNO&M = CFO + CFM + CV (13)
It is a concept that synthesizes the available economic
information about the project. Its value expresses the cost of J. FIXED COST OF OPERATION - CFO
producing a kilowatt hour in the hydroelectric plant. It is
particularly useful for comparing two or more projects. These costs are present regardless the operation of the plant, and
therefore, they are not directly related to the generated energy.
The cost of each kWh level is the sum of the investment costs - Fixed costs include: wages, benefits, social insurance, third
CNI, operation and maintenance - CNO&M, and the cost for water party services, overheads, and materials (excluding the area of
- CUW. operation).

CkWh = CNI + CNO&M + CUW (9) The CFO is obtained by multiplying the number of units of the
central by an annual fixed charge, and dividing the result by the
average annual generation.
H. LEVELED ENERGY COST FOR INVESTMENT - CNI
CNI determines technical and economic aspects of a particular =
1
(14)
technology, such as: investment costs, the investment payments,

the power per unit, annual average generation, the operational


life of the plant, and the discount rate. K. FIXED COST OF MAINTENANCE - CFM

Dividing the present value of investments by the present value The Fixed Cost of Maintenance is obtained by applying (15),
of the generation, the cost per kWh leveled by investment and based on data sample of plants in operation, published by
concept is obtained, considering constant prices. CFE (COPAR). In this expression the variables involved are the
total power, the number of units of the plant and average annual
generation.
=

(10)
0,5877 Government is who collects this stipend. Or simply, by having
2 ( )

=

(15) tariff benefits to be the owner of the resource.
The premises to be used will depend on particularities of the
L. VARIABLE COSTS OF PRODUCTION - CV case. However, even if some variables are included, the
methodology will work properly.
Variable costs are those directly related to the generation of
electricity, and materials used for the operating crew.
B. INTERNAL RATE OF RETURN - IRR
The variable cost is also obtained by applying an exponential
function. Expression related to in power of the plant and number An additional financial value to be shown is the IRR. In the
of units. standalone analysis of the country, for this calculation is
considered the payment for the energy of 0.0194 US$ / kWh,
3 time of the loan for investment of 20 years, the economic
= 0,1271
(16)
( ) contribution of the investor, and from year 21 the generation of

the plant is fully available for domestic demand.
Where: Within the financial flow analysis from 2025 to 2045, the total
costs of the plants will be 134.28 US$ million / year, then from
Nu = Number of Units 2045 to 2075 the incomes will be US$ 167.85 million. In the first
GMA = Annual average generation (GWh) 20 years of operation of the plant, it can be seen that Ecuador
P = Power (MW) would have no benefit, it will only make payments for the share
K1 = Coefficient of operation fixed cost of 1600 MW available for electricity demand. Mainly from this
K2 = Coefficient of maintenance fixed cost period and keeping the tariff that the user already got used to pay
K3 = Coefficient of variable cost for that energy, financial flows shows the injection of very large
K1, K2 and K3 are international references or can be calculated amounts of money, so that, evaluating the IRR for the 50 year
from historical cost of the plants in the country. life of the power generation, it easily rises over the 5%.

V. ANALYSIS OF RESULTS
It has been defined the schemes of: distribution of energy
generated by the plant, investment costs of the plant,
management costs, operation and maintenance, and loan
disbursements, based on the contribution of the investor. In
brief, costs to be related to the construction and proper operation
of the plant.
With these parameters, finally, it is possible to calculate the
amount of money that the investor will pay for the firm power
and energy availability from the Central Santiago.
Fig. 8. Cash Flow of 50 years of Rio Santiago Central.

A. PRICE AND TIME OF RETURN ON INVESTMENT


Important conclusions and future analysis derive from these
Once the Central Rio Santiago is operating, the benefits mainly values. Because of this indexes, Governments can make the
depend on the average annual generation, and its capacity factor, decision of a tariffs decrease to users, or to decrease the price of
whose estimated value is 49.5% [2]. the contract with the investor, or similar ideas, as long as the
value of the IRR remains positive and the objectives of the
In the analysis, it is found that meeting the costs of the plant, and parties are met.
contrasting it with the energy and power available to the
investor, the energized rate (US$ / kWh) that minimizes the
VI. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
contribution of the investor is 0.0194 US$ / kWh.
The traditional way to invest in electrical projects has been
In addition, the value to supply the demand of Ecuador, to
evolved in this paper through the establishment of a solid
complement the financial and operational costs of the generation
financing option. The proposed mechanism is even applicable in
plant will be given by the same unit value of the investor because
models with a free competition structure in electricity
the total cost will be covered in similar amounts by the country
and the investor. generation, because the private businessman who has received
the concession of a block of energy could find investor/s for his
At this point, it is important to mention that different policies project by pre-selling the extra energy generated with its plant.
can be incorporated in the methodology. For example, in the
negotiation with the investors, the country may provide The construction of a large-scale hydroelectric plant which
guarantees of loans, reducing risk and interest rate, so that the involves huge economic efforts, becomes feasible since allows
tariff could be lower. Similarly, the Country can charge fees for the investor to recover his investment in a short time and, on the
water use, which will support its part payment, since the other side, the country will be able to finance a substantial part
of a large amount of funds required to execute the power
generation project. In the example considered in this work, the VIII. BIOGRAPHIES
investment made for the construction of the project will be fully
recovered over a period of 20 years at an interest rate of 8% per Santiago Pilaquinga Abadiano, was born in
year and a price of 0.0194US$ / kWh for investors who will Quito on September 6th, 1991. He did his
elementary studies at "Alejandro Andrade Coello"
have firm energy for their activities. Complementary, the School. He graduated as electronics technician at
reduction of the tariff is possible if the loans for the construction "Central Tcnico" High School. Currently, he is at
of the plants improves its rates of interest and time. 9th semester of Electrical Engineering at "Escuela
Politcnica Nacional del Ecuador" (National
The assessment methodology applied for valuing the Polytechnic School of Ecuador).
His areas of interest are hydroelectric power plants,
performance of the proposed mechanism is susceptible to distributed generation, renewable energy resources
updates for application in a given market; under the same and power transmission systems.
conditions, or adjusting the parameters that were used as
hypothesis. The concept will not change, but the parameter
settings as the IRR, NPV, compound interest, equity, among
others, can be set to follow the needs of each country. It is ngel Vaca Peafiel, is an Electrical Engineering
recommended to calculate an initial analysis to determine the graduate of Escuela Politcnica Nacional del
Ecuador (National Polytechnic School of Ecuador)
minimum conditions for negotiation; using for example a IRR in 2011. He currently works as a technician of
equal to the MARR (NPV = 0), lending rates in the international Department of Management of Electricity Rates at
market with less risk and lower available interest balances CONELEC. His research activities are focused on
the development of methodologies to improve
Equity vs. Credit to reach the amount of investment of 1 : 1 or design of electricity rates for participants in the
25% : 75%, among other values that display a minimum value to Ecuadorian electricity sector and in related topics.
the investor may negotiate energy. He has ventured into the technical development of
major policies for the electricity market of Ecuador.
The substantial demand increase, seen through the years (see
Fig. 5), consider the promotion of projects for intensive use of Pal Vsquez Miranda, (SM'14) is an Electrical
electricity (efficient cooking, electric mobility systems, special Engineer graduated from "Escuela Politcnica
loads connected to power transmission levels and change the Nacional" (National Polytechnic School) in
Quito, 2002. He worked for Movistar in the
energy matrix in general). In case of not having this demand planning area during 2003-2004. He graduated as
scenario, the benefit of installing SRHP will be noticed in the a doctor of electrical engineering at "Universidad
decrease of fossil fuels usage for electricity generation, increase Nacional de San Juan" (National University of
of firm power reserve of Ecuador, increase of the energy San Juan), in Argentina, 2009. He worked as a
Guest Researcher for one year, 2008-2009, at
available to be exported to neighboring countries, and even in "Instituto de Energa Elctrica" (LENA) (Institute
the renewal of contract energy supply for those investors who of Electrical Energy), of the University Otto-von-
initially were part of the construction. In all cases, it is a social Guericke in Magdeburg, Germany. He was Director of the Planning Department
and economic benefit to the owner of the resource and for at "Consejo Nacional de Electricidad" CONELEC (National Electricity
Counsel). At present, he is a professor of graduate and postgraduate careers at
potential users of that energy. "Escuela Politcnica Nacional" (National Polytechnic School). His areas of
interest are planning, optimization, decision making, modeling uncertainties
VII. REFERENCES and risk management techniques.

[1] Plan Maestro de Electrificacin 2013-2022, Perspectiva y expansin del


Sistema Elctrico Ecuatoriano, Vol.3, pp 34,35,36,78,79
[2] CELEC EP, Estudio de Factibilidad y Diseo definitivo Proyecto ACKNOWLEDGEMENTS
Hidroelctrico Santiago (G8), Ficha Informativa del Proyecto, 2015.
[3] Notes of Project Evaluation class, Anlisis del Proyecto Hidroelctrico The authors of this paper express their gratitude to the National
Ro Santiago, National Polytechnic School, February 2016.
Polytechnic School, for the opportunity to use the technological
[4] L. Ochoa, Determinacin de la Potencia ptima del Proyecto
Hidroelctrico Ro Santiago (G8) basado en la evaluacin tcnica y resources and access to the information for the execution of this
financiera aplicando criterios de optimizacin y simulacin estocstica research work; also, to generate and share knowledge to serve
multivariable, Ms.C Thesis of Electrical Engineering, Universidad del the country and its people.
Azuay, Cuenca, 2013
[5] Comisin Federal de Electricidad CFE, Estudio de Factibilidad y diseos
definitivos del Proyecto Hidroelctrico Santiago en la Repblica del
Ecuador, Feasibility Report, 2015
[6] Davis, Calvin, Sorensen, Kenneth, Handbook of Applied Hydraulics,
Mc Graw Hill, 3 ed , 1969
[7] ALEXANDER, I., MAYER, C., y WEEDS, H. Regulatory Structure and
Risk and Infraestructure Firms: An International Comparison, Banco
Mundial, 1996

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