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Abstract- The construction of electric power generation of private investment. While the Government could continue
megaprojects involves great efforts that governments can hardly this trend, it is essential to analyze new mechanisms to achieve
handle with its own economic resources, and therefore it is the development of generating capacity, hopefully with better
necessary to consider the participation of foreign investment, conditions than traditional loan and payment ones.
whether public or private. The feasibility of a funding mechanism The proposal of this paper relates the energy needed for the
that would make possible the building of a hydroelectric project - industries and the energy requirements of a country rich in
Ro Santiago- located in Ecuador (3,600 MW), is studied in this renewable resources; so that, both supply their needs, and both
paper. Through the evaluation of economical indexes and technical parts have financial benefits with this transaction.
parameters, it is evaluated a methodology to receive funds of
foreign investors (one or more companies that use permanently
After technical analysis made, finally it will be determined the
amount of the total capacity to be delivered to the investor
high amounts of electricity) in change of energy and firm capacity
company and the period of time, such that the transaction is
of the hydro electrical plant to be built. The established
attractive to both the investor and Ecuador. It should be noticed
methodology and the obtained results, represent an interesting
that at the end of the period, the investment will be covered
option for large consumers of electricity in the regional electricity
entirely by the country and, consequently, it could use the total
market and also for countries seeking to develop their generating power plant capacity.
capacity with not enough economic capacity to build them.
Keywords concession, funding mechanism, generation planning, II. DEMAND AND ELECTRICAL GENERATION IN
investments, large scale, renewable, resources. ECUADOR
Activities such as large scale mining, cement plants, refineries, The execution of energy efficiency programs, the incorporation
sugar processing, among others, use electric power intensively. of industrial loads, The Refinery of the Pacific, the program of
Hence, to meet demand requires one or more large and medium migration to induction stoves, among others, and considering the
size generation plants. current economy of the country and different external factors of
the society, the forecasting of the demand is expected to be
An alternative for countries with large renewable resources and similar to the shown in TABLE I.
that might be interesting for these companies is to acquire the
TABLE I
concession of power of the local national system interconnected FORECAST OF ANNUAL DEMAND FOR ELECTRICITY GENERATION IN S.N.I,
or, with the offer of energy of neighboring countries available as SLOWER GROWTH SCENARIO [1].
surplus for export.
Year GWh
Ecuador, as a country with large rivers, is ideal for the
2013 20,056
construction of hydroelectric megaprojects. Several of those 2014 20,829
have already been implemented, others are in the construction 2015 23,553
process and there are new projects that still are in the portfolio 2016 28,088
of potential energy inventory. 2017 34,137
2018 35,328
One of the future megaprojects, which are arranged pre- 2019 36,645
2020 37,866
feasibility studies, is the Santiago River Hydroelectric Project - 2021 38,927
SRHP, it is located in the province of Morona Santiago, and 2022 39,935
takes advantage of the flow of the river with the same name. 2023 41,052
2024 42,204
The project that represents the scenario of analysis in this 2025 43,393
document, has a capacity of 3600 MW, divided in four stages of 2026 44,631
2027 45,909
900 MW each [3], because the hydrographic characteristics of 2028 47,219
the area and the demand requirements. The total project cost is 2029 48,571
estimated at around US$ 4000 million. 2030 49,968
2031 51,193
Currently, the Ecuadorian Electricity Sector supplies the 2032 52,682
demand with plants built by the Government, with a small share
1
Escuela Politcnica Nacional EPN Quito, Ecuador.
Email: pvasquez@ieee.org
As the demand increases, power requirements in distribution 2017 398 39
systems will do too, so do electric utilities, and reinforcement in 2018 314 15
the stages transmission and generation of the National 2019 456 0
Interconnected System - SNI [1]. Due to the scope of this work, 2020 399 0
only the increasing of the generation will be analyzed. 2021 257 0
2022 0 0
B. ENERGY SUPPLY Total 6,012 1,072
A. DEMAND FORECASTING
Fig. 1. Composition of Generation by Technology [1] Econometric models explain the behavior of one or more
variables in terms of others through the estimation of a
Santiago River Hydroelectric Project runs into operation in 2022 mathematical relationship. In the model only variables that can
with its first phase as detailed in TABLE II, with a capacity be quantified or valued are included. Such models are composed
3,600 MW in four stages of 900 MW [3], and an average energy of a deterministic part. The stochastic component is called
of 3,900 GWh/year per stage. residual or error; this component includes those that are
considered irrelevant variables, variables that despite its
TABLE II
influence are not possible to measure, and measurement errors.
OPERATIVE ANALYSIS OF EXPANSION PLAN OF The method of estimation of econometric models used in this
GENERATION 2014-2023 [2]
study is the OLS, with the following description of calculation:
Average
Operation Power
Generation Plant Energy
since [MW]
[GWh/year]
ene-22 Santiago G8, Fase I 900 3,902
jul-22 Santiago G8, Fase II 900 3,902
ene-23 Santiago G8, Fase III 900 3,902
jul-23 Santiago G8, Fase IV 900 3,902
(17)
The sign of the estimated coefficients must be consistent Fig. 3. Demand forecast and Generation until 2040.
with that expected by theory.
Goodness of fitted curve: measures the portion of the To demonstrate the need for generation and the year in which it
variability in Y that is explained by the regression. The more is needed, in other words, the date of entry into operation to
the R2 is closest to one the better the estimation. supply the country's demand, it is necessary to define the
Based on the remainder generated by the model estimation construction scheme, stages of the plant, energy that can be
of OLS checking: delivered to the investor (without affecting the supply of the own
No autocorrelation: a period errors are unrelated to the system demand), and the period of time in which this energy can
errors or remainders from previous periods. be supplied.
Homoscedasticity: the variance of remainders should be
kept constant in all periods. A. EARLY PLANNING
Normality.
As shown in Fig. 3, in the early years of the entry into operation
Correct functional relationship is linear.
of SRHP, Ecuador does not require electric power generated by
the SRHP neither for consumption nor for reaching reserve
As described, the demand forecasting of the analysis period is levels. So that, the country can built the plant several years prior
obtained.
to its energy starts to be needed, and to deliver part of the energy
generated by the SRHP, as payment for the private investment
TABLE IV
DEMAND FORECAST USING THE OLS METHOD, LESS GROWTH SCENARIO. made to finance the construction of SRHP, for an agreed term.
Year GWh
2033 52,737
2034 54,340
2035 55,943
2036 57,546
2037 59,150
2038 60,753
2039 62,356
2040 63,959
1 2 3
= + (1+) + (1+) 2 + (1+)3 + + (1+) (3)
= + (1+)
1
(4)
Where:
Fig. 5. Projection of demand and generation with the SRHP once established
agreements between investors and Ecuador. NPV = NPV of the operation NPV investments (5)
Note, however, that from 2030, Ecuador would need new In other terms:
sources of electricity to meet the demand requirement, even if
the total capacity of the Rio Santiago is received. In this case,
the present methodology can be replicated again, and with the NPV = (NPV incomes of sales NPV operative costs) - NPV investments (6)
learned experiences, the methodology will be adapted for market
to be used in, and once established, it can be used every time it D. INTERNAL RATE OF RETURN - IRR
is required to increase the generation capacity. The IRR is defined as the interest rate "i" which reduces to zero
Once are defined the technical aspects, the initial economic and the present value of a series of income and expenses.
financial parameters. One can begin with the calculations of the
main indexes, detailed below; thus, finally can be identified the
generation rates to be covered by the investor and the country,
and the distribution in different stages of the distribution, i.e.
project construction, operation start, redistribution of generation
of the plant, concession period of the plant, and remaining useful
life of the plant.
It is the referential cost of each installable kW, it allows to VPI = Present value of the investments (millions of US$)
estimate the total cost of the installation of a power generation, VPG = Present value of the generation (GWh)
considering its capacity and technology AIC = Year of the beginning of the construction of the plant
The CkWI, is the ratio of the total project investment and installed ATC = Year of the end of operational life
capacity. AIO = Year of the beginning of operational life
I1, I2, I3,Ik = Investment payments (millions of US$)
1000 N = operational life (aos)
= (8)
i = annual interest rate (%)
GMA = annual average generation (GWh)
Where: FRC = Capital recovery rate
CkWI = Cost of the power installed I. LEVELED COSTS FOR MAINTENANCE AND OPERATION
I = Total investment (millions of US$)
P = Installed power (MW) The leveled cost of kWh for operation and maintenance - CNO&M
is the sum of the components: fixed operating costs, fixed costs,
G. TOTAL COST IN TERMS OF ENERGY TO GENERATE - KWH and variable costs of maintenance.
LEVEL
CNO&M = CFO + CFM + CV (13)
It is a concept that synthesizes the available economic
information about the project. Its value expresses the cost of J. FIXED COST OF OPERATION - CFO
producing a kilowatt hour in the hydroelectric plant. It is
particularly useful for comparing two or more projects. These costs are present regardless the operation of the plant, and
therefore, they are not directly related to the generated energy.
The cost of each kWh level is the sum of the investment costs - Fixed costs include: wages, benefits, social insurance, third
CNI, operation and maintenance - CNO&M, and the cost for water party services, overheads, and materials (excluding the area of
- CUW. operation).
CkWh = CNI + CNO&M + CUW (9) The CFO is obtained by multiplying the number of units of the
central by an annual fixed charge, and dividing the result by the
average annual generation.
H. LEVELED ENERGY COST FOR INVESTMENT - CNI
CNI determines technical and economic aspects of a particular =
1
(14)
technology, such as: investment costs, the investment payments,
Dividing the present value of investments by the present value The Fixed Cost of Maintenance is obtained by applying (15),
of the generation, the cost per kWh leveled by investment and based on data sample of plants in operation, published by
concept is obtained, considering constant prices. CFE (COPAR). In this expression the variables involved are the
total power, the number of units of the plant and average annual
generation.
=
(10)
0,5877 Government is who collects this stipend. Or simply, by having
2 ( )
=
(15) tariff benefits to be the owner of the resource.
The premises to be used will depend on particularities of the
L. VARIABLE COSTS OF PRODUCTION - CV case. However, even if some variables are included, the
methodology will work properly.
Variable costs are those directly related to the generation of
electricity, and materials used for the operating crew.
B. INTERNAL RATE OF RETURN - IRR
The variable cost is also obtained by applying an exponential
function. Expression related to in power of the plant and number An additional financial value to be shown is the IRR. In the
of units. standalone analysis of the country, for this calculation is
considered the payment for the energy of 0.0194 US$ / kWh,
3 time of the loan for investment of 20 years, the economic
= 0,1271
(16)
( ) contribution of the investor, and from year 21 the generation of
the plant is fully available for domestic demand.
Where: Within the financial flow analysis from 2025 to 2045, the total
costs of the plants will be 134.28 US$ million / year, then from
Nu = Number of Units 2045 to 2075 the incomes will be US$ 167.85 million. In the first
GMA = Annual average generation (GWh) 20 years of operation of the plant, it can be seen that Ecuador
P = Power (MW) would have no benefit, it will only make payments for the share
K1 = Coefficient of operation fixed cost of 1600 MW available for electricity demand. Mainly from this
K2 = Coefficient of maintenance fixed cost period and keeping the tariff that the user already got used to pay
K3 = Coefficient of variable cost for that energy, financial flows shows the injection of very large
K1, K2 and K3 are international references or can be calculated amounts of money, so that, evaluating the IRR for the 50 year
from historical cost of the plants in the country. life of the power generation, it easily rises over the 5%.
V. ANALYSIS OF RESULTS
It has been defined the schemes of: distribution of energy
generated by the plant, investment costs of the plant,
management costs, operation and maintenance, and loan
disbursements, based on the contribution of the investor. In
brief, costs to be related to the construction and proper operation
of the plant.
With these parameters, finally, it is possible to calculate the
amount of money that the investor will pay for the firm power
and energy availability from the Central Santiago.
Fig. 8. Cash Flow of 50 years of Rio Santiago Central.