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BANCARIO 45,527,824.04
C1
BANCARIO 45,527,824.04
Puertas entamboradas de hierro, puertas de aluminio anodizado con vidrio, marcos met
Herrera y Cerrajera: ventanas romanillas de aluminio en hierro.
Impermeabilizacin en caliente en losas inclinadas, caucho en paredes y techos inter
Impermeabilizacin y Pintura: caucho en paredes exteriores, esmalte en puertas y marcos metlicos, barniz en puertas
Artefactos y Accesorios WC, lavamanos y baera lnea media, accesorios metlicos, calentadores de 50 li
Sanitarios: mueble para empotrar lavamanos.
Inspeccin
lana blanca en paredes. Gastos Generales Administracin
Financiamiento
osas de cermica nacional.
Utilidad Empresarial Del promotor
e romanilla y plegable. COSTO DE REPOSICIN
COSTO UNITARIO DE REPOSICION
nodizado con vidrio, marcos metlicos,
VALOR ACTUAL
aucho en paredes y techos interiores, Depreciacin (Ross-Heidecke)
rcos metlicos, barniz en puertas. E= Edad aparente
etlicos, calentadores de 50 litros y DEPRECIACION TECNICA DE ROSS V = Vida til
dt= Depreciacin tcnica
Bs./m2 7,287.73
m2 110.84
100.00% 807,771.99
-20.08% -162,224.85
79.92% 645,547.14
2.00% 12,910.94
1.00% 6,455.47
1.00% 6,455.47
0.00% 0.00
1.00% 6,455.47
3.00% 19,366.41
5.00% 32,277.36
0.00% 0.00
Bs. 729,468.27
Bs/m 6,581.27
D=(Cr-Cs)[dt+(1-dt)K]
aos 23.00
aos 50.00
iacin tcnica 33.58%
de Reposicin 729,468.27
5.00% 36,473.41
692,994.86
Bs. 316,019.65
Bs. 413,448.62
Bs/m 3,730.14
TIPOLOGIA PROINVEROBRAS BASE DE COMPARACION
Bloques de arcilla.
Paredes:
Sin acabados.
Pavimentos:
Proyecto
Permisos
Inversin Previa
Incorporaciones
Estudio de Suelos
Inspeccin
Gastos Generales Administracin
Financiamiento
VALOR ACTUAL
Depreciacin (Ross-Heidecke)
E= Edad aparente
os llaves. DEPRECIACION TECNICA DE ROSS V = Vida til
dt= Depreciacin tcnica
Bs./m2 3,351.14
m2 32.31
0.63% 108,275.33
-0.63% -58,423.20
46.04% 49,852.13
1.00% 498.52
1.00% 498.52
0.00% 0.00
0.00% 0.00
1.00% 498.52
3.00% 1,495.56
0.00% 0.00
35.00% 17,448.25
Bs. 70,291.50
Bs/m 2,175.53
D=(Cr-Cs)[dt+(1-dt)K]
aos 23.00
aos 35.00
iacin tcnica 54.45%
de Reposicin 70,291.50
5.00% 3,514.58
66,776.93
Bs. 45,362.96
Bs. 24,928.55
Bs/m 771.54
TIPOLOGIA PROINVEROBRAS BASE DE COMPARACION
Artefactos y Accesorios WC, lavamanos y baera lnea media, accesorios metlicos, calentadores de 50 litro
Sanitarios: mueble para empotrar lavamanos.
Inspeccin
celana blanca en paredes. Gastos Generales Administracin
Financiamiento
dosas de cermica nacional.
Utilidad Empresarial Del promotor
de romanilla y plegable. COSTO DE REPOSICIN
COSTO UNITARIO DE REPOSICION
minio anodizado con vidrio, marcos
VALOR ACTUAL
aucho en paredes y techos interiores, Depreciacin (Ross-Heidecke)
arcos metlicos, barniz en puertas. E= Edad aparente
metlicos, calentadores de 50 litros y DEPRECIACION TECNICA DE ROSS V = Vida til
dt= Depreciacin tcnica
Bs./m2 5,897.41
m2 105.70
100.00% 623,356.24
-20.52% -127,918.93
79.48% 495,437.30
2.00% 9,908.75
1.00% 4,954.37
1.00% 4,954.37
1.00% 4,954.37
1.00% 4,954.37
3.00% 14,863.12
5.00% 24,771.87
0.00% 0.00
Bs. 564,798.53
Bs/m 5,343.41
D=(Cr-Cs)[dt+(1-dt)K]
aos 10.00
aos 45.00
iacin tcnica 13.58%
de Reposicin 564,798.53
5.00% 28,239.93
536,558.60
Bs. 156,794.35
Bs. 408,004.18
Bs/m 3,860.02
ESTADISTICAS DE LA REGRESION TERRENO C-1 AMPLIACION JUA
Coeficiente de correlacin mltipl 76.11% ANOVA
Coeficiente de determinacin R^2 57.92% Grados libertad Suma cuadrados Media de cuadrados F
R^2 ajustado 54.41% Regresin 2 9.210473E+013 4.60524E+013 16.518042006
Error tpico 1669731.6999039 Residuos 24 6.691209E+013 2.78800E+012
Observaciones 27 Total 26 1.590168E+014
Coeficientes Error tpico Estadstico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95% Inferior 95,0%
INDEPEDIENTE -351169440.51167 109618705.157882 -3.203553992 0.0038077784 -577411328.415 -124927552.61 -577411328.41
AREA (m2) 999.826943462 216.0494694928 4.6277685653 0.0001070043 553.922754135 1445.73113279 553.922754135
FECHA (das) 8340.4669551585 2600.2500331904 3.2075634453 0.0037709799 2973.81465178 13707.1192585 2973.81465178
Ecuacin de Regresin
Unitario = -351169441 + 999.83 * AREA (m2) + 8340.47 * FECHA(das)
UNITARIO BANCARIO AREA FECHA MONTO (Bsf)
18,390.02 5,879,749.23 355.25 20-abr-17 6,533,054.7
Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de 0.40034394
Coeficiente d 0.16027527
R^2 ajustado 0.12734489
Error tpico 2142510.77
Observacione 54
ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF Valor crtico de F
Regresin 2 4.468E+013 2.234E+013 4.86709425 0.01162765
Residuos 51 2.341E+014 4.590E+012
Total 53 2.788E+014
Observacin
Pronstico MONTO ResiduosResiduos estndares Percentil MONTO
1 944957.946 -374957.946 -0.17840721 0.92592593 10000
2 610972.093 569027.907 0.27074684 2.77777778 10725
3 757804.799 -707804.799 -0.33677771 4.62962963 20000
4 730110.722 -650110.722 -0.30932652 6.48148148 35000
5 652709.325 -577709.325 -0.27487751 8.33333333 40000
6 735606.592 64393.4084 0.03063876 10.1851852 50000
7 721383.197 -626383.197 -0.29803683 12.037037 50000
8 766565.454 -731565.454 -0.34808317 13.8888889 50000
9 873242.086 216757.914 0.1031347 15.7407407 60000
10 707709.273 -696984.273 -0.33162924 17.5925926 60000
11 866301.989 -66301.9892 -0.03154688 19.4444444 75000
12 743894.165 -513894.165 -0.24451388 21.2962963 75000
13 1446378.96 -1406379 -0.66916343 23.1481481 75000
14 6355174.88 1875825.12 0.89252868 25 80000
15 759947.254 -589947.254 -0.28070039 26.8518519 80000
16 833641.226 -633641.226 -0.30149024 28.7037037 90000
17 821490.998 -671491 -0.31949939 30.5555556 94000
18 652740.393 -572740.393 -0.27251327 32.4074074 95000
19 772890.085 -712890.085 -0.33919732 34.2592593 100000
20 953417.591 -878417.591 -0.41795628 36.1111111 140000
21 1349185.23 -1259185.23 -0.59912778 37.962963 150000
22 994181.64 3005818.36 1.43018615 39.8148148 150000
23 687498.968 -612498.968 -0.29143063 41.6666667 170000
24 676328.005 -476328.005 -0.22663968 43.5185185 200000
25 598069.255 -548069.255 -0.26077459 45.3703704 200000
26 650695.443 -510695.443 -0.24299191 47.2222222 200000
27 777882.611 -677882.611 -0.32254055 49.0740741 200000
28 2311708.46 -1461708.46 -0.69548953 50.9259259 230000
29 688880.141 -628880.141 -0.29922489 52.7777778 270000
30 628599.704 -478599.704 -0.22772057 54.6296296 300000
31 1167961.32 8832038.68 4.20233622 56.4814815 300000
32 743946.4 -473946.4 -0.2255065 58.3333333 400000
33 686564.207 -136564.207 -0.06497806 60.1851852 450000
34 729603.594 -229603.594 -0.10924675 62.037037 450000
35 833240.979 -383240.979 -0.18234832 63.8888889 450000
36 677243.852 202756.148 0.09647257 65.7407407 480000
37 722902.897 -422902.897 -0.2012197 67.5925926 500000
38 1452023.38 -972023.378 -0.46249447 69.4444444 500000
39 1181680.12 -181680.124 -0.08644448 71.2962963 550000
40 1089717.2 -689717.198 -0.32817152 73.1481481 570000
41 575128.492 -125128.492 -0.05953688 75 800000
42 610946.166 -600946.166 -0.28593374 76.8518519 800000
43 826797.327 673202.673 0.32031381 78.7037037 850000
44 860564.496 3939435.5 1.8744067 80.5555556 880000
45 1728861.26 -1428861.26 -0.67986063 82.4074074 1000000
46 1164697.39 -1114697.39 -0.53037961 84.2592593 1090000
47 1098862.26 -1004862.26 -0.4781194 86.1111111 1180000
48 1051129.03 -851129.033 -0.40497223 87.962963 1500000
49 866864.34 -366864.34 -0.17455622 89.8148148 4000000
50 4221898.75 -4201898.75 -1.99928827 91.6666667 4800000
51 1533949.38 3466050.62 1.64916737 93.5185185 5000000
52 1227957.21 8672042.79 4.12620923 95.3703704 8231000
53 980052.267 -780052.267 -0.37115348 97.2222222 9900000
54 938164.192 -488164.192 -0.23227141 99.0740741 10000000
Residuos
AREA Grfico de los residuales
Residuos
1000000
500000 FECHA Grfico de los res
MONTO
1000000
0 AREA Curva de reg
MONTO
500000200.00 300.00 400.00 500.00 600.00 700.00 8
-5000000.00 100.00 20000000
-1000000
0 AREA
FECHA Curv
MONTO
12-dic-15 10000000
-500000 15000000
31-ene-16 21-mar-1610-may-16 29-jun-16
-1000000 10000000
FECHA
Gr
0 20000000
0.00 200.00 400.00 600.00
5000000 AREA
10000000
Inferior 95,0%Superior 95,0% 0
0
-205168136 152945390 15-jul-15 31-ene-16
0
241.119319 1179.0898
-3616.87475 4880.18217
tos de probabilidad
residuales
o de los residuales
urva de regresin ajustada
0.00 600.00 700.00 800.00
FECHA Curva de regresin ajustada
MONTO
000
610-may-16 29-jun-16 18-ago-16 07-oct-16
000
FECHA
Grfico de probabilidad
MONTO normal
20000000
.00 400.00 600.00 800.00 MONTO
000 AREA
10000000
0
0 FECHA
15-jul-15 31-ene-16 18-ago-16 06-mar-17
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Muestra percentil
Resumen
Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de 0.50704846
Coeficiente d 0.25709814
R^2 ajustado 0.22254456
Error tpico 2165066.73
Observacione 46
ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF Valor crtico de F
Regresin 2 6.976E+013 3.488E+013 7.44056556 0.0016789
Residuos 43 2.016E+014 4.688E+012
Total 45 2.713E+014
Observacin
Pronstico MONTO ResiduosResiduos estndares Percentil MONTO
1 2633174.78 -1783174.78 -0.84254801 1.08695652 10000
2 2971748.82 -2671748.82 -1.26239821 3.26086957 35000
3 1812849.4 -1772849.4 -0.83766928 5.43478261 40000
4 1757203.74 -1667203.74 -0.78775182 7.60869565 50000
5 2097965.36 -2003965.36 -0.9468713 9.7826087 50000
6 1596245.29 -1116245.29 -0.5274246 11.9565217 60000
7 1221231.22 -1146231.22 -0.54159292 14.1304348 60000
8 2019483.1 -1819483.1 -0.85970365 16.3043478 75000
9 879223.845 -844223.845 -0.39889478 18.4782609 75000
10 964959.93 -904959.93 -0.42759251 20.6521739 75000
11 851133.505 -801133.505 -0.37853465 22.826087 80000
12 1151200.11 -751200.113 -0.35494118 25 80000
13 620283.942 -520283.942 -0.24583356 27.173913 90000
14 814789.643 -734789.643 -0.34718725 29.3478261 94000
15 1030857.81 -830857.813 -0.39257935 31.5217391 95000
16 486889.59 -426889.59 -0.20170483 33.6956522 100000
17 806101.795 -711101.795 -0.33599477 35.8695652 140000
18 919272.085 -844272.085 -0.39891758 38.0434783 150000
19 384614.234 -374614.234 -0.17700479 40.2173913 170000
20 928615.607 -758615.607 -0.35844499 42.3913043 200000
21 713213.207 -638213.207 -0.301555 44.5652174 200000
22 807283.482 -727283.482 -0.3436406 46.7391304 230000
23 389840.023 -339840.023 -0.16057402 48.9130435 270000
24 888189.588 -658189.588 -0.31099381 51.0869565 300000
25 456137.552 -316137.552 -0.14937463 53.2608696 300000
26 405015.988 -255015.988 -0.12049476 55.4347826 400000
27 520436.848 -250436.848 -0.11833112 57.6086957 450000
28 633865.011 -333865.011 -0.15775083 59.7826087 450000
29 762071.916 -312071.916 -0.14745362 61.9565217 480000
30 1055257.22 -485257.22 -0.22928347 64.1304348 500000
31 606706.103 -106706.103 -0.05041851 66.3043478 550000
32 1294010.72 -294010.719 -0.13891972 68.4782609 570000
33 434069.988 115930.012 0.0547768 70.6521739 800000
34 337609.505 112390.495 0.05310438 72.826087 800000
35 1048829.46 -248829.459 -0.11757163 75 850000
36 824767.63 -24767.6299 -0.01170268 77.173913 880000
37 568413.976 311586.024 0.14722403 79.3478261 1000000
38 1038578.16 51421.8352 0.02429676 81.5217391 1090000
39 636315.457 543684.543 0.25689031 83.6956522 1180000
40 662351.768 837648.232 0.39578781 85.8695652 1500000
41 8260357.21 -29357.2137 -0.01387125 88.0434783 4000000
42 1299617.4 2700382.6 1.27592764 90.2173913 4800000
43 2735318.47 2264681.53 1.07005938 92.3913043 5000000
44 692837.682 4107162.32 1.94062941 94.5652174 8231000
45 2342051.46 7557948.54 3.57112189 96.7391304 9900000
46 1099010.36 8900989.64 4.20570724 98.9130435 10000000
Residuos
AREA Grfico de los residuales
Residuos
0
0.00 FECHA Grfico de los resid
100.00 200.00 300.00 400.00 500.00 600.00 700.00 800.
MONTO
-1000000
0
AREA Curva de regr
12-dic-15 31-ene-16 21-mar-1610-may-16 29-jun-16 18-
MONTO
-2000000 -1000000 20000000
-3000000 FECHA Curva
AREA
MONTO
-2000000 15000000
10000000
-3000000 Grfi
10000000
FECHA
0 20000000
0.00 200.00 400.00 600.00
5000000 AREA
10000000
Inferior 95,0%Superior 95,0% 0
0 FEC
-380049153 78240269.4 15-jul-15 31-ene-16 1
0
394.639355 1469.14846
-1845.53819 9034.56587
tos de probabilidad
residuales
o de los residuales
0.00 600.00 700.00 800.00
urva de
610-may-16 regresin
29-jun-16 ajustada
18-ago-16 07-oct-16
000
000
FECHA
Grfico de probabilidad
MONTO normal
20000000
.00 400.00 600.00 800.00 MONTO
000 AREA
10000000
0
0 FECHA
15-jul-15 31-ene-16 18-ago-16 06-mar-17
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Muestra percentil
Resumen
Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de 0.52053634
Coeficiente d 0.27095808
R^2 ajustado 0.2362418
Error tpico 2164900.29
Observacione 45
ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF Valor crtico de F
Regresin 2 7.316E+013 3.658E+013 7.80492807 0.0013116
Residuos 42 1.968E+014 4.687E+012
Total 44 2.700E+014
Observacin
Pronstico MONTO ResiduosResiduos estndares Percentil MONTO
1 3327329.85 -3027329.85 -1.43127649 1.11111111 10000
2 2401705.96 -2201706 -1.0409338 3.33333333 35000
3 2555521 -1705521 -0.80634494 5.55555556 40000
4 1872994.22 -1832994.22 -0.86661238 7.77777778 50000
5 1846767.16 -1756767.16 -0.83057336 10 50000
6 1312394.32 -1237394.32 -0.58502162 12.2222222 60000
7 1570700.39 -1090700.39 -0.51566691 14.4444444 60000
8 1052348.73 -992348.728 -0.46916771 16.6666667 75000
9 1033729.74 -958729.74 -0.45327315 18.8888889 75000
10 937157.508 -902157.508 -0.42652664 21.1111111 75000
11 1111745.51 -911745.507 -0.4310597 23.3333333 80000
12 902903.897 -852903.897 -0.40324027 25.5555556 80000
13 1008868.52 -838868.524 -0.39660455 27.7777778 90000
14 1144544.19 -744544.19 -0.35200941 30 95000
15 867115.548 -787115.548 -0.37213651 32.2222222 100000
16 897082.356 -817082.356 -0.38630437 34.4444444 140000
17 859659.265 -764659.265 -0.36151952 36.6666667 150000
18 961369.013 -731369.013 -0.34578038 38.8888889 170000
19 767091.703 -692091.703 -0.32721065 41.1111111 200000
20 573397.09 -473397.09 -0.2238151 43.3333333 200000
21 1087426.02 -517426.017 -0.24463132 45.5555556 230000
22 435449.033 -375449.033 -0.17750671 47.7777778 270000
23 334736.95 -324736.95 -0.1535308 50 300000
24 348673.037 -298673.037 -0.14120817 52.2222222 300000
25 620832.495 -320832.495 -0.15168483 54.4444444 400000
26 412858.441 -272858.441 -0.12900341 56.6666667 450000
27 740487.135 -290487.135 -0.13733799 58.8888889 450000
28 1293962.12 -293962.117 -0.13898091 61.1111111 480000
29 353728.093 -203728.093 -0.09631961 63.3333333 500000
30 453100.719 -183100.719 -0.08656729 65.5555556 550000
31 1119553.51 -319553.512 -0.15108014 67.7777778 570000
32 579804.677 -79804.6774 -0.03773046 70 800000
33 8224149.77 6850.22709 0.00323869 72.2222222 800000
34 878039.794 -78039.794 -0.03689605 74.4444444 850000
35 1101767.51 -11767.5068 -0.0055635 76.6666667 880000
36 288450.686 161549.314 0.07637811 78.8888889 1000000
37 363658.886 186341.114 0.0880993 81.1111111 1090000
38 554184.332 325815.668 0.1540408 83.3333333 1180000
39 682579.157 497420.843 0.23517317 85.5555556 1500000
40 606031.738 893968.262 0.42265489 87.7777778 4000000
41 3102204.74 1897795.26 0.89724935 90 4800000
42 1399471.32 2600528.68 1.22949125 92.2222222 5000000
43 630557.818 4169442.18 1.97125019 94.4444444 8231000
44 2718245.1 7181754.9 3.3954268 96.6666667 9900000
45 1031620.94 8968379.06 4.24011611 98.8888889 10000000
Residuos
AREA Grfico de los residuales
Residuos
0
-10000000.00 FECHA Grfico de los resid
100.00 200.00 300.00 400.00 500.00 600.00 700.00 800.
MONTO
0
-2000000 AREA Curva de regr
12-dic-15 31-ene-16 21-mar-1610-may-16 29-jun-16 18-
MONTO
-1000000
-3000000 20000000
-4000000
-2000000 FECHA Curva
AREA
MONTO
-3000000 10000000 15000000
-4000000 Grfi
10000000
FECHA
0 20000000
0.00 200.00 400.00 600.00
5000000 AREA
10000000
Inferior 95,0%Superior 95,0% 0
0 FEC
-440526320 50893009.5 15-jul-15 31-ene-16 1
0
379.303624 1455.99629
-1195.92948 10472.6166
tos de probabilidad
residuales
o de los residuales
0.00 600.00 700.00 800.00
urva de
610-may-16 regresin
29-jun-16 ajustada
18-ago-16 07-oct-16
000
000
FECHA
Grfico de probabilidad
MONTO normal
20000000
.00 400.00 600.00 800.00 MONTO
000 AREA
10000000
0
0 FECHA
15-jul-15 31-ene-16 18-ago-16 06-mar-17
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Muestra percentil
Resumen
Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de 0.269083
Coeficiente d 0.07240566
R^2 ajustado 0.03024228
Error tpico 2094006.9
Observacione 47
ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF Valor crtico de F
Regresin 2 1.506E+013 7.530E+012 1.71726423 0.1913718
Residuos 44 1.929E+014 4.385E+012
Total 46 2.080E+014
Observacin
Pronstico MONTO ResiduosResiduos estndares Percentil MONTO
1 1065515.95 -615515.95 -0.30054796 1.06382979 5000
2 1093340.98 -1083341 -0.52898047 3.19148936 10000
3 1263530.69 236469.314 0.11546471 5.31914894 20000
4 1296026.07 3503973.93 1.71094219 7.44680851 20000
5 1732583.1 -1432583.1 -0.69951059 9.57446809 25000
6 1294311.31 -1244311.31 -0.60758007 11.7021277 35000
7 1264462.37 -1170462.37 -0.57152065 13.8297872 45000
8 1227380.72 -1027380.72 -0.50165585 15.9574468 50000
9 1085487 -585487 -0.28588523 18.0851064 50000
10 3704378.51 -3684378.51 -1.79903126 20.212766 50000
11 1572396.82 3427603.18 1.67365141 22.3404255 50000
12 1330928.24 8569071.76 4.18415968 24.4680851 50000
13 1137090.15 -937090.146 -0.45756821 26.5957447 50000
14 1082001.45 -632001.454 -0.3085976 28.7234043 60000
15 1065924.43 -865924.429 -0.42281897 30.8510638 60000
16 1233690.35 -1188690.35 -0.58042112 32.9787234 80000
17 1063638.56 -1043638.56 -0.50959433 35.106383 94000
18 1059828.77 -1009828.77 -0.49308547 37.2340426 100000
19 999589.015 -974589.015 -0.47587839 39.3617021 125000
20 1091296.78 -901296.777 -0.4400908 41.4893617 190000
21 1547111.65 -1347111.65 -0.65777606 43.6170213 200000
22 2401947.27 -1301947.27 -0.63572291 45.7446809 200000
23 1134525.22 -1084525.22 -0.52955872 47.8723404 200000
24 1186462.76 -1126462.76 -0.55003625 50 200000
25 1182652.97 -1122653 -0.54817598 52.1276596 300000
26 1147491.05 -1142491.05 -0.55786264 54.2553191 300000
27 947013.945 -912013.945 -0.44532384 56.3829787 300000
28 3136457.3 863542.705 0.421656 58.5106383 370000
29 1005729.78 -880729.783 -0.43004822 60.6382979 400000
30 1193115.73 306884.271 0.14984736 62.7659574 450000
31 1052223.26 -972223.26 -0.47472322 64.893617 450000
32 2580358.85 4419641.15 2.15804988 67.0212766 500000
33 864739.505 -814739.505 -0.39782607 69.1489362 1100000
34 896417.825 -596417.825 -0.29122261 71.2765957 1180000
35 986887.784 -686887.784 -0.33539784 73.4042553 1500000
36 985403.17 1014596.83 0.49541365 75.5319149 1500000
37 1001413.34 -901413.341 -0.44014771 77.6595745 2000000
38 976434.12 2023565.88 0.98807934 79.787234 2000000
39 978033.893 -928033.893 -0.45314616 81.9148936 3000000
40 944224.905 1055775.09 0.51552043 84.0425532 4000000
41 907578.399 -537578.399 -0.26249213 86.1702128 4000000
42 798991.068 -398991.068 -0.19482184 88.2978723 4000000
43 822728.37 -772728.37 -0.37731262 90.4255319 4000000
44 968442.227 3031557.77 1.48026789 92.5531915 4800000
45 969204.184 3030795.82 1.47989584 94.6808511 5000000
46 1482526.51 2517473.49 1.22924762 96.8085106 7000000
47 1257483.66 -77483.6589 -0.0378342 98.9361702 9900000
Residuos
AREA Grfico de los residuales
Residuos
5000000
FECHA Grfico de los resid
MONTO
5000000
0 AREA Curva de regr
MONTO
0.00 100.00 200.0020000000
300.00 400.00 500.00 600.00 700.00 800.
-5000000
0 AREA
FECHA Curva
MONTO
12-dic-15 10000000 15000000
31-ene-16 21-mar-1610-may-16 29-jun-16 18-
-5000000 10000000
FECHA
Grfi
0 20000000
0.00 200.00 400.00 600.00
5000000 AREA
10000000
Inferior 95,0%Superior 95,0% 0
0 FEC
-217624141 284131961 15-jul-15 31-ene-16 1
0
-61.2534079 1164.54559
-6665.55227 5141.63719
tos de probabilidad
residuales
o de los residuales
urva de regresin ajustada
0.00 600.00 700.00 800.00
FECHA Curva de regresin ajustada
MONTO
000
610-may-16 29-jun-16 18-ago-16 07-oct-16
000
FECHA
Grfico de probabilidad
MONTO normal
20000000
.00 400.00 600.00 800.00 MONTO
000 AREA
10000000
0
0 FECHA
15-jul-15 31-ene-16 18-ago-16 06-mar-17
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Muestra percentil
Resumen
Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de 0.48204106
Coeficiente d 0.23236358
R^2 ajustado 0.17095267
Error tpico 2273504.14
Observacione 28
ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF Valor crtico de F
Regresin 2 3.912E+013 1.956E+013 3.78375067 0.03668129
Residuos 25 1.292E+014 5.169E+012
Total 27 1.683E+014
Observacin
Pronstico MONTO ResiduosResiduos estndares Percentil MONTO
1 1370216.77 -920216.766 -0.42063584 1.78571429 20000
2 1801754.47 -301754.47 -0.13793353 5.35714286 25000
3 1881132.07 2918867.93 1.33422961 8.92857143 35000
4 1757962.28 -1663962.28 -0.76060575 12.5 45000
5 1677835.68 -1477835.68 -0.67552632 16.0714286 50000
6 2379378.58 2620621.42 1.19789959 19.6428571 50000
7 1852112.92 8047887.08 3.67873075 23.2142857 60000
8 1431432.4 -1231432.4 -0.56289411 26.7857143 60000
9 1239179.9 -1039179.9 -0.4750145 30.3571429 94000
10 1599858.86 -1554858.86 -0.71073402 33.9285714 100000
11 1228743.91 -1208743.91 -0.55252308 37.5 190000
12 1081183.6 -1056183.6 -0.48278698 41.0714286 200000
13 1255528.34 -1065528.34 -0.48705851 44.6428571 200000
14 4058286.53 -2958286.53 -1.35224805 48.2142857 200000
15 1391540.27 -1331540.27 -0.60865393 51.7857143 400000
16 1374146.94 -1314146.94 -0.60070336 55.3571429 450000
17 841155.721 -806155.721 -0.36849794 58.9285714 1100000
18 5568473.99 -1568474 -0.71695756 62.5 1180000
19 4306384.85 2693615.15 1.2312654 66.0714286 1500000
20 599248.312 -549248.312 -0.25106424 69.6428571 2000000
21 836161.406 1163838.59 0.53199663 73.2142857 2000000
22 859763.135 -759763.135 -0.34729165 76.7857143 3000000
23 803955.437 2196044.56 1.00382331 80.3571429 4000000
24 723363.981 1276636.02 0.58355692 83.9285714 4000000
25 360070.665 39929.3346 0.01825191 87.5 4800000
26 426020.315 -376020.315 -0.17188083 91.0714286 5000000
27 2667058.11 1332941.89 0.60929462 94.6428571 7000000
28 2287050.56 -1107050.56 -0.50603853 98.2142857 9900000
Residuos
AREA Grfico de los residuales
Residuos
10000000
FECHA Grfico de los resid
MONTO
5000000
10000000
AREA Curva de regr
MONTO
0 5000000
20000000
0.00
-5000000
100.00 200.00 300.00 400.00
0 FECHA Curva
AREA 500.00 600.00 700.00 800.
MONTO
10000000 15000000
31-ene-16 10-may-16 18-
-5000000
12-dic-15 21-mar-16
10000000
FECHA
Grfi
29-jun-16
0 20000000
0.00 200.00 400.00 600.00
5000000 AREA
10000000
Inferior 95,0%Superior 95,0% 0
0 FEC
-172362820 469541161 15-jul-15 31-ene-16 1
0
271.891513 2112.11912
-11036.5209 4079.19105
tos de probabilidad
residuales
o de los residuales
urva de regresin ajustada
FECHA Curva de regresin ajustada
0.00 600.00 700.00 800.00
MONTO
000
10-may-16 18-ago-16
16
000
FECHA
Grfico
29-jun-16 de probabilidad
MONTO
07-oct-16 normal
20000000
.00 400.00 600.00 800.00 MONTO
000 AREA
10000000
0
0 FECHA
15-jul-15 31-ene-16 18-ago-16 06-mar-17
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Muestra percentil
Resumen
Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de 0.44919418
Coeficiente d 0.20177541
R^2 ajustado 0.11775177
Error tpico 2330553.05
Observacione 22
ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF Valor crtico de F
Regresin 2 2.609E+013 1.304E+013 2.40141238 0.11754075
Residuos 19 1.032E+014 5.431E+012
Total 21 1.293E+014
Observacin
Pronstico MONTO ResiduosResiduos estndares Percentil MONTO
1 4367230.97 -3267231 -1.47385138 2.27272727 20000
2 1292299.46 -1198299.46 -0.54055417 6.81818182 25000
3 1337198.39 -1292198.39 -0.58291207 11.3636364 35000
4 1198920.2 -998920.203 -0.45061397 15.9090909 45000
5 1360241.07 -1300241.07 -0.58654013 20.4545455 50000
6 1362886.16 -1302886.16 -0.58773334 25 60000
7 1040087.85 -840087.851 -0.37896453 29.5454545 60000
8 913868.399 -893868.399 -0.40322499 34.0909091 94000
9 547733.599 632266.401 0.28521605 38.6363636 190000
10 1027577.64 -837577.639 -0.37783217 43.1818182 200000
11 764817.342 -739817.342 -0.33373239 47.7272727 200000
12 912281.345 -712281.345 -0.32131087 52.2727273 200000
13 735012.219 -285012.219 -0.12856932 56.8181818 400000
14 801319.589 -766319.589 -0.34568758 61.3636364 450000
15 679808.008 -629808.008 -0.28410706 65.9090909 1100000
16 1228758.68 271241.324 0.12235725 70.4545455 1180000
17 643972.441 -243972.441 -0.11005623 75 1500000
18 1015485.25 984514.747 0.44411565 79.5454545 2000000
19 943611.072 1056388.93 0.47653817 84.0909091 2000000
20 1010033.82 1989966.18 0.89767587 88.6363636 3000000
21 5000092.05 1999907.95 0.90216061 93.1818182 7000000
22 1525764.43 8374235.57 3.7776266 97.7272727 9900000
Residuos
AREA Grfico de los residuales
Residuos
2000000
FECHA Grfico de los resid
MONTO
0
2000000
0.00 AREA Curva de regr
100.00 200.00 300.00 400.00 500.00 600.00 700.00 800.
MONTO
-2000000 0 20000000
-4000000 FECHA Curva
12-dic-15 31-ene-16AREA
21-mar-1610-may-16 29-jun-16 18-
MONTO
-2000000 15000000
10000000
-4000000 Grfi
10000000
FECHA
0 20000000
0.00 200.00 400.00 600.00
5000000 AREA
10000000
Inferior 95,0%Superior 95,0% 0
0 FEC
-442035248 398101044 15-jul-15 31-ene-16 1
0
38.5604692 2739.75724
-9362.15616 10420.1923
tos de probabilidad
residuales
o de los residuales
urva
0.00 de
600.00 regresin
700.00 800.00 ajustada
FECHA Curva
610-may-16 29-jun-16 de regresin
18-ago-16 07-oct-16 ajustada
MONTO
000
000
FECHA
Grfico de probabilidad
MONTO normal
20000000
.00 400.00 600.00 800.00 MONTO
000 AREA
10000000
0
0 FECHA
15-jul-15 31-ene-16 18-ago-16 06-mar-17
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Muestra percentil
Resumen
Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de 0.58230756
Coeficiente d 0.33908209
R^2 ajustado 0.26564677
Error tpico 2178213.21
Observacione 21
ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF Valor crtico de F
Regresin 2 4.382E+013 2.191E+013 4.61742488 0.02406178
Residuos 18 8.540E+013 4.745E+012
Total 20 1.292E+014
Observacin
Pronstico MONTO ResiduosResiduos estndares Percentil MONTO
1 1580507.55 -1520507.55 -0.73581212 2.38095238 20000
2 1580390.51 -1520390.51 -0.73575548 7.14285714 25000
3 1591603.79 -1546603.79 -0.74844075 11.9047619 35000
4 1560080.24 -1466080.24 -0.70947337 16.6666667 45000
5 1406440.37 -1206440.37 -0.58382706 21.4285714 50000
6 893391.424 -873391.424 -0.42265624 26.1904762 60000
7 1121392.37 -921392.37 -0.44588511 30.952381 60000
8 1065234.83 -875234.829 -0.42354831 35.7142857 94000
9 645533.118 -610533.118 -0.29545244 40.4761905 190000
10 643917.95 -618917.95 -0.29951008 45.2380952 200000
11 893321.2 -693321.2 -0.33551569 50 200000
12 415961.161 -365961.161 -0.17709788 54.7619048 200000
13 662638.796 -212638.796 -0.1029013 59.5238095 400000
14 312108.648 87891.3523 0.04253285 64.2857143 450000
15 1476709.61 23290.3875 0.01127081 69.047619 1180000
16 586581.875 593418.125 0.28717006 73.8095238 1500000
17 957250.624 1042749.38 0.50461284 78.5714286 2000000
18 827982.712 1172017.29 0.56716886 83.3333333 2000000
19 942352.196 2057647.8 0.9957479 88.0952381 3000000
20 7524262.46 -524262.46 -0.25370389 92.8571429 7000000
21 1921338.56 7978661.44 3.86107639 97.6190476 9900000
Residuos
AREA Grfico de los residuales
Residuos
0
-5000000.00 FECHA Grfico de los resid
100.00 200.00 300.00 400.00 500.00 600.00 700.00 800.
MONTO
0
-1000000 AREA Curva de regr
12-dic-15 31-ene-16 21-mar-1610-may-16 29-jun-16 18-
MONTO
-500000
-1500000 20000000
-2000000
-1000000 FECHA Curva
AREA
MONTO
-1500000 10000000 15000000
-2000000 Grfi
10000000
FECHA
0 20000000
0.00 200.00 400.00 600.00
5000000 AREA
10000000
Inferior 95,0%Superior 95,0% 0
0 FEC
-395546902 393974295 15-jul-15 31-ene-16 1
0
688.357839 3882.89702
-9272.29649 9319.11293
tos de probabilidad
residuales
o de los residuales
0.00 600.00 700.00 800.00
urva de
610-may-16 regresin
29-jun-16 ajustada
18-ago-16 07-oct-16
000
000
FECHA
Grfico de probabilidad
MONTO normal
20000000
.00 400.00 600.00 800.00 MONTO
000 AREA
10000000
0
0 FECHA
15-jul-15 31-ene-16 18-ago-16 06-mar-17
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Muestra percentil
Resumen
Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de 0.43236736
Coeficiente d 0.18694153
R^2 ajustado 0.07853374
Error tpico 2265953.4
Observacione 18
ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF Valor crtico de F
Regresin 2 1.771E+013 8.854E+012 1.72442886 0.21179384
Residuos 15 7.702E+013 5.135E+012
Total 17 9.473E+013
Observacin
Pronstico MONTO ResiduosResiduos estndares Percentil MONTO
1 2600909.68 -2540909.68 -1.19376017 2.77777778 20000
2 2564377.78 -2504377.78 -1.1765969 8.33333333 25000
3 2173296.36 -2128296.36 -0.99990781 13.8888889 35000
4 1729049.36 -1635049.36 -0.76817245 19.4444444 45000
5 1329535.61 -1129535.61 -0.53067397 25 60000
6 372207.685 -352207.685 -0.16547283 30.5555556 60000
7 791192.203 -591192.203 -0.27775159 36.1111111 94000
8 949475.727 -759475.727 -0.35681389 41.6666667 190000
9 263863.069 -228863.069 -0.10752354 47.2222222 200000
10 -240277.101 265277.101 0.12463144 52.7777778 200000
11 350288.547 -150288.547 -0.07060797 58.3333333 200000
12 -771237.622 1221237.62 0.57375705 63.8888889 400000
13 34455.6846 365544.315 0.17173859 69.4444444 450000
14 1331120.79 168879.21 0.07934217 75 1500000
15 1422214.67 577785.334 0.27145283 80.5555556 2000000
16 1180267.6 819732.401 0.38512345 86.1111111 2000000
17 1434192.47 1565807.53 0.73564152 91.6666667 3000000
18 2864067.49 7035932.51 3.30559408 97.2222222 9900000
Residuos
AREA Grfico de los residuales
Residuos
1000000
0 FECHA Grfico de los resid
MONTO
1000000
-10000000.00 100.00 200.00 300.00 400.00 500.00 600.00 700.00 800.
AREA Curva de regr
0
-2000000 20000000
MONTO
-3000000
-1000000 FECHA Curva
12-dic-15 31-ene-16AREA
21-mar-1610-may-16 29-jun-16 18-
MONTO
-2000000 10000000 15000000
-3000000 0 10000000
FECHA
Grfi
20000000
0.00 200.00 400.00
AREA 600.00
-10000000 5000000
10000000
0
Inferior 95,0%Superior 95,0% FEC
15-jul-15 31-ene-16
0 1
928334 431590545 -5000000
0
-882.963126 12769.7155
-10157.9808 24770.7394
tos de probabilidad
residuales
o de los residuales
0.00 600.00 700.00 800.00
urva de regresin ajustada
FECHA Curva de regresin ajustada
610-may-16 29-jun-16 18-ago-16 07-oct-16
MONTO
00
00
FECHA
Grfico de probabilidad
MONTO normal
20000000
.00 400.00
AREA 600.00 800.00
00 MONTO
10000000
0
15-jul-15 31-ene-16
0 FECHA
18-ago-16 06-mar-17
00
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Muestra percentil
Resumen
Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de 0.51125627
Coeficiente d 0.26138297
R^2 ajustado 0.15586625
Error tpico 2221125.52
Observacione 17
ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF Valor crtico de F
Regresin 2 2.444E+013 1.222E+013 2.47717112 0.11993204
Residuos 14 6.907E+013 4.933E+012
Total 16 9.351E+013
Observacin
Pronstico MONTO ResiduosResiduos estndares Percentil MONTO
1 3137915.86 -3077915.86 -1.48142482 2.94117647 20000
2 2586025.78 -2541025.78 -1.22301545 8.82352941 25000
3 1975666.76 -1881666.76 -0.90566083 14.7058824 35000
4 1473637.78 -1273637.78 -0.61301176 20.5882353 45000
5 1069020.06 -879020.062 -0.42307918 26.4705882 60000
6 826341.665 -626341.665 -0.30146311 32.3529412 94000
7 324862.469 -304862.469 -0.14673267 38.2352941 190000
8 265851.615 -230851.615 -0.11111068 44.1176471 200000
9 294191.786 -94191.7863 -0.04533524 50 200000
10 1449570.6 50429.3987 0.02427206 55.8823529 200000
11 -439574.094 464574.094 0.22360312 61.7647059 400000
12 69306.391 330693.609 0.1591654 67.6470588 450000
13 1771469.75 228530.249 0.10999338 73.5294118 1500000
14 1480989.81 519010.194 0.24980364 79.4117647 2000000
15 -1190168.27 1640168.27 0.78942573 85.2941176 2000000
16 1793817.61 1206182.39 0.58054495 91.1764706 3000000
17 3430074.41 6469925.59 3.11402545 97.0588235 9900000
Residuos
AREA Grfico de los residuales
Residuos
1000000
0 FECHA Grfico de los resid
MONTO
-10000000.00 2000000
100.00 200.00 300.00 400.00 500.00 600.00 700.00 800.
-2000000 AREA Curva de regr
MONTO
-3000000 0
-4000000 12-dic-15 FECHA Curva
31-ene-16AREA
21-mar-1610-may-16 29-jun-16 18-
MONTO
-2000000
15000000
-4000000 Grfi
10000000
FECHA
0.00 200.00 400.00 600.00
20000000
5000000 AREA
0 10000000
Inferior 95,0%Superior 95,0% 15-jul-15 31-ene-16 1
0 FEC
685908 326587977
0
259.123032 14677.7702
-7693.6117 28140.7337
tos de probabilidad
residuales
o de los residuales
0.00 600.00 700.00 800.00
urva de regresin ajustada
FECHA Curva
610-may-16 29-jun-16 de regresin
18-ago-16 07-oct-16 ajustada
MONTO
00
00
FECHA
Grfico de probabilidad
MONTO normal
400.00 600.00
20000000 800.00
00 AREA MONTO
0 10000000
15-jul-15 31-ene-16 18-ago-16 06-mar-17
0 FECHA
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Muestra percentil
Resumen
Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de 0.61828765
Coeficiente d 0.38227962
R^2 ajustado 0.28724571
Error tpico 2092417.95
Observacione 16
ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF Valor crtico de F
Regresin 2 3.522E+013 1.761E+013 4.02256032 0.04366642
Residuos 13 5.692E+013 4.378E+012
Total 15 9.214E+013
Observacin
Pronstico MONTO ResiduosResiduos estndares Percentil MONTO
1 3221892.58 -3176892.58 -1.63090268 3.125 20000
2 2368155.43 -2274155.43 -1.16746981 9.375 25000
3 1710620.26 -1510620.26 -0.77549825 15.625 35000
4 1256712.62 -1066712.62 -0.54761199 21.875 45000
5 893237.725 -693237.725 -0.35588338 28.125 94000
6 262494.391 -242494.391 -0.12448792 34.375 190000
7 265592.49 -230592.49 -0.11837791 40.625 200000
8 219064.331 -19064.3309 -0.00978694 46.875 200000
9 1651940.08 -151940.077 -0.07800058 53.125 200000
10 2289727.45 -289727.448 -0.14873568 59.375 400000
11 103762.725 296237.275 0.15207759 65.625 450000
12 -733298.903 758298.903 0.38928345 71.875 1500000
13 1923391.97 76608.0287 0.03932781 78.125 2000000
14 2326601.94 673398.057 0.3456984 84.375 2000000
15 -1803299.49 2253299.49 1.15676312 90.625 3000000
16 4302404.4 5597595.6 2.87360477 96.875 9900000
Residuos
AREA Grfico de los residuales
Residuos
0
-10000000.00100.00 FECHA
200.00 300.00Grfico
400.00 500.00de los
600.00 resid
700.00 800.
MONTO
0
-2000000 AREA
12-dic-15 31-ene-16 Curva de
21-mar-1610-may-16 regr
29-jun-16 18-
MONTO
-1000000
-3000000
-4000000 -2000000 AREA
FECHA Curva
MONTO
-3000000 15000000
10000000
FECHA Grfi
-4000000 0.00 200.00 400.00 600.00
20000000
5000000 AREA
0 10000000
Inferior 95,0%Superior 95,0% 15-jul-15 31-ene-16 1
0 FEC
332939 143512764
0
2312.02846 17251.6479
-3397.12364 32350.4973
tos de probabilidad
residuales
o de
0.00 los
600.00 residuales
700.00 800.00
urva de
610-may-16 regresin
29-jun-16 ajustada
18-ago-16 07-oct-16
00
00
FECHA Grfico de probabilidad
MONTO normal
400.00 600.00
20000000 800.00
00 AREA MONTO
0 10000000
15-jul-15 31-ene-16 18-ago-16 06-mar-17
0 FECHA
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Muestra percentil
Resumen
Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de 0.71239644
Coeficiente d 0.50750869
R^2 ajustado 0.4254268
Error tpico 1927752.21
Observacione 15
ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF Valor crtico de F
Regresin 2 4.595E+013 2.298E+013 6.18295607 0.01426893
Residuos 12 4.459E+013 3.716E+012
Total 14 9.055E+013
Observacin
Pronstico MONTO ResiduosResiduos estndares Percentil MONTO
1 2945304.88 -2851304.88 -1.59759187 3.33333333 20000
2 2143091.27 -1943091.27 -1.08871795 10 25000
3 1500758.85 -1310758.85 -0.73442082 16.6666667 35000
4 1110438.51 -910438.507 -0.51012053 23.3333333 94000
5 2629508.3 -629508.303 -0.35271477 30 190000
6 310551.5 -290551.5 -0.16279659 36.6666667 200000
7 220720.438 -185720.438 -0.10405954 43.3333333 200000
8 2103124.88 -603124.877 -0.33793208 50 200000
9 261360.492 -61360.4919 -0.03438041 56.6666667 400000
10 2166122.33 -166122.334 -0.09307868 63.3333333 450000
11 -88037.9713 488037.971 0.27344866 70 1500000
12 2665641.27 334358.732 0.18734187 76.6666667 2000000
13 -910672.744 935672.744 0.52425932 83.3333333 2000000
14 -2114906.26 2564906.26 1.43712214 90 3000000
15 5270994.25 4629005.75 2.59364125 96.6666667 9900000
Residuos
AREA Grfico de los residuales
Residuos
0
0.00 100.00 FECHA
200.00 300.00Grfico
400.00 500.00de los
600.00 resid
700.00 800.
MONTO
-1000000 0
AREA
12-dic-15 31-ene-16 Curva de
21-mar-1610-may-16 regr
29-jun-16 18-
MONTO
-2000000
-1000000
-3000000
AREA
FECHA Curva
MONTO
-2000000 15000000
10000000
FECHA Grfi
-3000000 0.00 200.00 400.00 600.00
20000000
5000000 AREA
0 10000000
Inferior 95,0%Superior 95,0% 15-jul-15 31-ene-16 1
0 FEC
377072 14273045.6
0
4531.04582 19337.2556
-368.990122 33162.9954
tos de probabilidad
residuales
o de
0.00 los
600.00 residuales
700.00 800.00
urva de
610-may-16 regresin
29-jun-16 ajustada
18-ago-16 07-oct-16
00
00
FECHA Grfico de probabilidad
MONTO normal
400.00 600.00
20000000 800.00
00 AREA MONTO
0 10000000
15-jul-15 31-ene-16 18-ago-16 06-mar-17
0 FECHA
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Muestra percentil
Resumen
Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de 0.83087688
Coeficiente d 0.69035639
R^2 ajustado 0.62842767
Error tpico 1643358.56
Observacione 13
ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF Valor crtico de F
Regresin 2 6.021E+013 3.011E+013 11.1475963 0.0028465
Residuos 10 2.701E+013 2.701E+012
Total 12 8.722E+013
Observacin
Pronstico MONTO ResiduosResiduos estndares Percentil MONTO
1 2034886.5 -1844886.5 -1.22978147 3.84615385 20000
2 1814208.95 -1614208.95 -1.0760143 11.5384615 25000
3 2777342.88 -777342.881 -0.51816839 19.2307692 35000
4 3330157.4 -1830157.4 -1.21996321 26.9230769 190000
5 704434.943 -684434.943 -0.45623696 34.6153846 200000
6 153845.111 -118845.111 -0.07922087 42.3076923 200000
7 2139832.5 -139832.497 -0.09321084 50 400000
8 662924.855 -462924.855 -0.30858072 57.6923077 450000
9 2779181.53 220818.472 0.14719521 65.3846154 1500000
10 -744879.976 1144879.98 0.76316466 73.0769231 2000000
11 -800886.916 825886.916 0.55052732 80.7692308 2000000
12 -1777911.49 2227911.49 1.4851018 88.4615385 3000000
13 6846863.72 3053136.28 2.03518776 96.1538462 9900000
Residuos
AREA Grfico de los residuales
Residuos
2000000
1000000 FECHA Grfico de los resid
2000000
MONTO
0
1000000
AREA Curva de regr
-10000000.00 100.00 200.00 300.00 400.00 500.00 600.00 700.00 800.
20000000
MONTO
-2000000
0 AREA
FECHA Curva
MONTO
12-dic-15
-1000000 31-ene-1621-mar-1610-may-16
10000000 15000000 29-jun-16 18-
-2000000 0 10000000
FECHA
Grfi
20000000
0.00 200.00 400.00
AREA 600.00
-10000000 5000000
10000000
0
Inferior 95,0%Superior 95,0% FEC
15-jul-15 31-ene-16
0 1
223170 39857990.5 -5000000
0
7606.66222 21230.4319
-986.782525 28660.1746
tos de probabilidad
residuales
o de los residuales
urva de regresin ajustada
0.00 600.00 700.00 800.00
FECHA Curva de regresin ajustada
MONTO
00
FECHA
Grfico de probabilidad
MONTO normal
20000000
.00 400.00
AREA 600.00 800.00
00 MONTO
10000000
0
15-jul-15 31-ene-16
0 FECHA
18-ago-16 06-mar-17
00
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Muestra percentil
Resumen
Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de 0.88665822
Coeficiente d 0.78616279
R^2 ajustado 0.73864341
Error tpico 1429022.16
Observacione 12
ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF Valor crtico de F
Regresin 2 6.757E+013 3.378E+013 16.5440459 0.00096688
Residuos 9 1.838E+013 2.042E+012
Total 11 8.595E+013
Observacin
Pronstico MONTO ResiduosResiduos estndares Percentil MONTO
1 1759882.83 -1569882.83 -1.21451634 4.16666667 20000
2 2812247.51 -1312247.51 -1.01520063 12.5 25000
3 1255113.13 -1055113.13 -0.81627247 20.8333333 35000
4 3249465.53 -1249465.53 -0.96663029 29.1666667 190000
5 32403.0752 -12403.0752 -0.00959545 37.5 200000
6 -35134.1928 235134.193 0.18190805 45.8333333 200000
7 2542677.68 -542677.678 -0.41983446 54.1666667 400000
8 -226882.595 261882.595 0.20260155 62.5 1500000
9 3290870.25 -290870.248 -0.22502741 70.8333333 2000000
10 -1780239.76 1805239.76 1.39659671 79.1666667 2000000
11 -833532.827 1233532.83 0.9543042 87.5 3000000
12 7403129.38 2496870.62 1.93166656 95.8333333 9900000
Residuos
AREA Grfico de los residuales
Residuos
2000000
1000000 FECHA Grfico de los resid
MONTO
2000000
0
1000000
AREA Curva de regr
-10000000.00 100.00 200.00 300.00 400.00 500.00 600.00 700.00 800.
20000000
MONTO
-2000000
0 AREA
FECHA Curva
MONTO
12-dic-15
-1000000 10000000 15000000
31-ene-1621-mar-1610-may-16 29-jun-16 18-
-2000000 0 10000000
FECHA
Grfi
20000000
0.00 200.00 400.00
AREA 600.00
-10000000 5000000
10000000
0
Inferior 95,0%Superior 95,0% FEC
15-jul-15 31-ene-16
0 1
324778 -271123498 -5000000
0
10654.4202 24605.7437
6312.46173 38712.3836
tos de probabilidad
residuales
o de los residuales
urva de regresin ajustada
0.00 600.00 700.00 800.00
FECHA Curva de regresin ajustada
MONTO
00
610-may-16 29-jun-16 18-ago-16 07-oct-16
00
FECHA
Grfico de probabilidad
MONTO normal
20000000
.00 400.00
AREA 600.00 800.00
00 MONTO
10000000
0
15-jul-15 31-ene-16
0 FECHA
18-ago-16 06-mar-17
00
0 20 40 60 80 100 120
Muestra percentil
Resumen
Estadsticas de la regresin
Coeficiente de 0.93034083
Coeficiente d 0.86553406
R^2 ajustado 0.82711522
Error tpico 1263486.19
Observacione 10
ANLISIS DE VARIANZA
Grados de libertad
Suma de cuadrados
Promedio de los cuadradosF Valor crtico de F
Regresin 2 7.193E+013 3.597E+013 22.5288965 0.00089154
Residuos 7 1.117E+013 1.596E+012
Total 9 8.310E+013
Observacin
Pronstico MONTO ResiduosResiduos estndares Percentil MONTO
1 1604144.02 -1414144 -1.26909864 5 20000
2 2443733.92 -943733.924 -0.84693738 15 35000
3 814841.908 -614841.908 -0.55177904 25 190000
4 3057170.86 -1057170.86 -0.94873937 35 200000
5 3925781.52 -925781.521 -0.83082632 45 200000
6 -541990.95 561990.95 0.50434888 55 400000
7 -636033.477 836033.477 0.75028352 65 1500000
8 -525492.273 560492.273 0.50300392 75 2000000
9 -862755.711 1262755.71 1.13323787 85 3000000
10 8165600.17 1734399.83 1.55650657 95 9900000
Residuos
AREA Grfico de los residuales
Residuos
2000000
1000000 FECHA Grfico de los resid
2000000
MONTO
0
1000000
AREA Curva de regr
-10000000.00 100.00 200.00 300.00 400.00 500.00 600.00 700.00 800.
20000000
MONTO
-2000000
0 AREA
FECHA Curva
MONTO
12-dic-15
-1000000 31-ene-1621-mar-1610-may-16
10000000 15000000 29-jun-16 18-
-2000000 0 10000000
FECHA
Grfi
20000000
0.00 200.00 400.00
AREA 600.00
-10000000 5000000
10000000
0
Inferior 95,0%Superior 95,0% FEC
15-jul-15 31-ene-16
0 1
04248429 -571771849 -5000000
0 1
13570.7599 28612.7017
13364.8945 49330.1238
tos de probabilidad
residuales
o de los residuales
urva de regresin ajustada
0.00 600.00 700.00 800.00
FECHA Curva de regresin ajustada
MONTO
00
FECHA
Grfico de probabilidad
MONTO normal
20000000
.00 400.00
AREA 600.00 800.00
00 MONTO
10000000
0
15-jul-15 31-ene-16
0 FECHA
18-ago-16 06-mar-17
00
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
Muestra percentil
REFERENCIALES MUNICIPIO MARCANO-ESTADO NUEVA ESPARTA 2015-2016
10,000,000.00
50,586,471.15 31347.5091611
23,443.11 7604.85081764
86.55%
22.528896503
7.193014E+013
50,586,471.15 31347.5091611
23,443.11 7604.85081764
, 86.55%
22.528896503
7.193014E+013
31347.5091611
50,586,471.15 31347.5091611
7604.85081764
86.55%
22.528896503
7.193014E+013
83,788.83 76.1348483508
180,802,885.71 14.9989897331
79.96%
13.96589764
173453259.151
TADO NUEVA ESPARTA 2015-2016
2,157.84 20-abr-17
21091.7307789 -1338010139
3180.61987104 324042303.64
1263486.18679 #N/A
7 #N/A
1.117478E+013 #N/A
21091.7307789 -1338010139
3180.61987104 324042303.64
1263486.18679 #N/A
7 #N/A
1.117478E+013 #N/A
21091.7307789 -1338010139
3180.61987104 324042303.64
1263486.18679 #N/A
7 #N/A
1.117478E+013 #N/A
29.5334913429 -3241937.298
6.2731125087 639106.18393
2491.96424729 #N/A
7 #N/A
43469200.6684 #N/A
estndares
ESTADISTICAS DE LA REGRESION TERRENO LA GALERA-MUNICIPIO M
Coeficiente de correlacin mltipl 93.03% ANOVA
Coeficiente de determinacin R^2 86.55% Grados libertad Suma cuadrados Media de cuadrados F
R^2 ajustado 82.71% Regresin 2 7.193014E+013 3.59651E+013 22.528896503
Error tpico 1,263,486.19 Residuos 7 1.117478E+013 1.59640E+012
Observaciones 10 Total 9 8.310492E+013
Coeficientes Error tpico Estadstico t Probabilidad Inferior 95% Superior 95% Inferior 95,0%
INDEPEDIENTE -1338010139.1989 324042303.644214 -4.1291217972 0.0044088376 -2104248428.94 -571771849.46 -2104248428.9
AREA (m2) 21091.730778891 3180.6198710443 6.6313271104 0.0002955873 13570.7598967 28612.7016611 13570.7598967
FECHA (das) 31347.509161061 7604.850817639 4.1220413014 0.0044481578 13364.8944879 49330.1238342 13364.8944879
Ecuacin de Regresin
Unitario = -1338010139 + 21091.73 * AREA (m2) + 31347.51 * FECHA(das)
UNITARIO BANCARIO AREA FECHA MONTO (Bsf)
23,443.11 45,527,824.04 2,157.84 20-abr-17 50,586,471.1
30,000.00
14,733.17 -82.3683163786
77.95 134.545590533
4.85%
0.8672760743
3196665716.04
14,733.17 -82.3683163786
77.95 134.545590533
, 4.85%
0.8672760743
3196665716.04
DO NUEVA ESPARTA 2012
189.00 02-mar-13
89.4078645414 3402529.4409
83.5425482611 5540731.4868
42929.4111097 #N/A
34 #N/A
62659767499.5 #N/A
89.4078645414 3402529.4409
83.5425482611 5540731.4868
42929.4111097 #N/A
34 #N/A
62659767499.5 #N/A
REFERENCIALES MUNICIPIO GOMEZ-ESTADO NUEVA ESPARTA 2012
30,000.00
39,878.92 44.9024647496
149.92 74.6261037324
80.85%
12.6643577243
929395448.938
39,878.92 44.9024647496
149.92 74.6261037324
, 80.85%
12.6643577243
929395448.938
DO NUEVA ESPARTA 2012
266.00 01-jul-13
192.39180654 -1872773.883
38.2456521401 3072900.928
6057.50370226 #N/A
6 #N/A
220160106.617 #N/A
192.39180654 -1872773.883
38.2456521401 3072900.928
6057.50370226 #N/A
6 #N/A
220160106.617 #N/A
REFERENCIALES MUNICIPIO GOMEZ-ESTADO NUEVA ESPARTA 2012
20,000.00
35,384.63 -114.896694846
101.40 118.5429035261
, 14.24%
3.1537423013
10531565986.5
DO NUEVA ESPARTA 2012
348.96 13-nov-12
92.8012433466 4739731.8544
46.9786255692 4882623.231
40861.8831081 #N/A
38 #N/A
63448352663.2 #N/A
REFERENCIALES MUNICIPIO GOMEZ-ESTADO NUEVA ESPARTA
26,563,171.00
1,195,379.87 631.653710449
3,187.68 2116.23968998
16.03%
4.8670942459
4.468336E+013
1,195,379.87 631.653710449
3,187.68 2116.23968998
, 16.03%
4.8670942459
4.468336E+013
DO NUEVA ESPARTA
375.00 15-mar-17
710.104559606 -26111373.028
233.606809988 89190182.628
2142510.7654 #N/A
51 #N/A
2.341080E+014 #N/A
710.104559606 -26111373.028
233.606809988 89190182.628
2142510.7654 #N/A
51 #N/A
2.341080E+014 #N/A
iduos estndares
REFERENCIALES MUNICIPIO GOMEZ-ESTADO NUEVA ESPARTA
842,136.66 -761.957539487
2,245.70 2929.28932914
7.24%
1.7172642346
1.505994E+013
842,136.66 -761.957539487
2,245.70 2929.28932914
, 7.24%
1.7172642346
1.505994E+013
DO NUEVA ESPARTA
551.6460915911 33253909.685
304.1130100772 124482528.3
2094006.89596 #N/A
44 #N/A
1.929341E+014 #N/A
551.6460915911 33253909.685
304.1130100772 124482528.3
2094006.89596 #N/A
44 #N/A
1.929341E+014 #N/A
iduos estndares