The Future of Public Primary School

Education in the United States

By Gerald Harris

A GBN Report
2006

Gerald Harris is a senior practitioner at Global Business Network (GBN), where he has spent more than a
decade helping private and public organizations apply the tools of scenario analysis to long-term
problems and uncertainty. GBN, a member of the Monitor Group, specializes in scenario-based strategic
planning and in helping organizations learn about and prepare for the future.
Table of Contents

Introduction ......................................................................................................................1
The Problems and Challenges Facing Public Primary School Education in the U.S.—
and Why the Future Matters Even More ...............................................................................2
The Schott Foundation for Public Education Scenarios..........................................................4
Scenario 1: The Illusion of Inclusion.................................................................................5
Scenario 2: The Dream Emerges ....................................................................................5
Scenario 3: The True Believers .......................................................................................5
Scenario 4: The War Machine .........................................................................................6
The Public Education Network Scenarios.............................................................................7
Scenario 1: Locking in the Divide ....................................................................................8
Scenario 2: Toward the Highest ......................................................................................8
Scenario 3: Down, But Not Out .......................................................................................8
Scenario 4: The Mediocre Middle ....................................................................................9
Reflections on the Future of Public Education from Both Sets of Scenarios ..........................10

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GBN Global Business Network • The Future of Public Primary School Education in the United States
Introduction
This article is intended to more widely communicate some of the key insights and lessons learned during
the course of two scenario projects—both of which were extraordinary efforts to understand, anticipate,
and shape the future of public education in the United States. The article is primarily directed at the
broader community of people and organizations that are not involved with public education issues on a
regular basis, although teachers and educators may also find new perspective, and new hope, in the
ideas below. Some of the insights shared here are more personal; they are insights grounded in my
deep work on these scenario projects as well as in my own personal experience as father to two school-
age boys. This article, then, is both a personal and a professional effort to pull together perspectives,
wrestle with ideas, and perpetuate more questions and learning about what is arguably the toughest
domestic problem facing the United States. The U.S.’s long-term global competitiveness is directly tied
to the success of its public education system because the brain power, creativity, and community
cohesiveness that will enable the U.S. to succeed will emerge from the development of the talent and
intelligence of its young people.

Public education is in deep trouble, and in many cases needs structural change in order to adjust to
the demographic, social, and technology shifts taking place in and around it. Estimates are that
more than $365 billion was spent by all states on public education in the U.S. in 2005. A big
question is whether this money simply needs to be better spent, or whether we need much more of
it. That is just one of the issues that needs to be resolved if we are to transform the historical system
of public education into one that will better serve the nation now and in the future.
Two organizations that clearly recognize the urgency of this issue—and are far ahead of others in
terms of the level to which they’ve taken their thinking about the future of public education—are
the Schott Foundation for Public Education, led by Dr. Rosa Smith and Greg Jobin-Leeds, and the
Public Education Network (PEN), led by Wendy Puriefoy and assisted by Dr. Guitele Nicoleau,
PEN’s director of research and member development. I was privileged to be part of both
organizations’ efforts to use scenario planning as a way to generate important new strategic
thinking about the future of education. The Schott Foundation’s scenario work, conducted in 2003
and 2004, focused on building a collaborative movement to improve the educational success of
Black and Brown boys. In its scenario work, PEN took a more focused look at elementary and high
school education as preparation for college or university education. I would like to thank both
organizations and their leaders for the opportunity to work with them and learn from them. With
their approval, both organizations’ scenarios are summarized here.
I have been engaged in scenario planning for 18 years, and while these two projects represent my
first deep experience in applying scenario thinking to the evolution of the public education system
in the U.S., in truth these issues have been stirring in my head and my heart for many years. They
have come up in scenario work related to regional economic development I have done with several
national foundations. And as a Black divorced father of two school-age sons, I have been a close
witness to both the challenges and successes of education firsthand. My younger son was diagnosed
with a learning disability and put in a special middle school to address his issues. My older son is a
B+ student, a star track athlete, and has been admitted to engineering programs at four prominent
colleges. Both have attended local parochial schools, not public schools, in Oakland, California.
During the four years that I worked on the Schott and PEN projects, my sons moved from fourth
and ninth grades to middle school and high school. I myself attended public schools during the
1960s and 1970s in both rural parts of metropolitan Atlanta, Georgia, and the inner city of Chicago,
Illinois. It is in my combined role as a scenarist, a father, and a public school graduate that, in the
last section of this paper, I lay out the future of public education as I see it unfolding. I think it is
fair for any reader to consider my comments from my personal context as shared above.

GBN Global Business Network • The Future of Public Primary School Education in the United States 1
The Problems and Challenges Facing Public Primary School
Education in the U.S.—and Why the Future Matters Even More
It would take much more space than I have here to give a complete and comprehensive list of all of the
problems that primary school public education faces throughout the U.S. Such a list would be long and
tedious and the severity of the problems varies from place to place. Some problems are short term and
solvable with money and more human resources. But as a scenario planner I am more interested in the
big structural and systemic problems that require long-term thinking on the strategic level, and this was
also the focus of the two projects discussed in this paper. The big issues that surfaced during those two
projects included:

1. There a structural problems in the teacher pool. First, the demographics of the pool of
teachers compared to the pool of students indicates a potential for cultural disconnection.
The vast majority of teachers are and will be White females, while a significant plurality of
the students are and will be ethnic minorities. Many of these students will come from
homes where English is not spoken. Secondly, the natural processes of career advancement
of these teachers will lead to the best and most experienced of them teaching in the most
privileged environments—not the most challenging ones where poor and minority students
need them the most. Career advancement and high turnover rates in teaching (an
admittedly tough and low-paying career choice) are doing the most damage to the kids who
can least afford it.
2. The evolution of the urban/suburban landscape of the U.S. has succeeded in largely
separating people by income, class, and, to a lesser extent, race. Racial integration of
public education has been structurally undermined by land use policies, freeways, and
housing prices. Whatever social and cultural goals that were intended to be met by
integrated schools are in most places physically impossible to meet (there are no White
kids to be bused in). Changing this reality would be political suicide in most places
because it would mean shifting a large amount of resources from upper- and middle-class
school districts to poor ones.
3. An expansion of research on student learning styles is indicating a need for a much more
varied approach to teaching than the standard auditory, lecturing format. Many intelligent
and talented students of all racial and ethnic backgrounds are being poorly served by the
standard approach, and sorting kids based on this out-of-date thinking is damaging. It takes
a significant amount of teacher training and access to other resources to teach to varied
learning styles. In some cases, it can also require the restructuring or alternative uses of the
physical space in school buildings. Addressing these two factors alone will require
significant new investments in public education far beyond customary rates of investment.
4. American political and economic values have shifted to a much stronger belief in the
power of market-related competition to address public and private issues. Measuring
performance against clear targets has been facilitated by the widespread use of information
and data processing technology. These shifts are entering public education in many forms,
from high-stakes performance tests for students to expansion of charter schools to demands
for voucher programs. The “competitive cat” is out of the bag for public education. It will
run its course and lead to change.
5. The mediated world outside the classroom is changing faster and has a richer interface than
the world inside the classroom. When every child over age 8 is presented with a fire hose
of information emanating from 350 channels of television, an infinite internet of exploding

GBN Global Business Network • The Future of Public Primary School Education in the United States 2
 websites, and real time up-to-date information via a cellphone, how should children be
taught? Using what tools? At what level of interaction with resources outside the
classroom? How should children and teachers use the History Channel, or math.com, or
dictionary.com?

Given these complex realities, the Schott Foundation and PEN engaged in scenario planning with
the following focus questions:
Schott Foundation: How will the American primary education system evolve over the next 20 years? Based on this,
what challenges and opportunities will arise for improving the educational success of Black boys?
Public Education Network: How will the public education system (pre-K through 16) in the U.S. evolve over the
next 20 years? Based on this, what roles should PEN and its member local education funds play in shaping the
evolution of the public education system in directions it supports?

Based on the focus questions above, both organizations decided to take an “outside-in” look at the
U.S. public education system and then create strategies within the context of its potential futures.
However, each organization had different strategic objectives and different problems to address.
The Schott Foundation wanted to address the needs of children they felt most likely to be “left
behind,” and so focused on serving the needs of an underserved segment of students. For PEN,
whose fundamental belief is that public education undergirds and enables a functioning democracy,
the objective was to direct its people and its political and financial resources to assuring continued
public support for a quality public education as the right of every American citizen; the evolution
of public education, PEN believes, must be centered on this core value. Again, both organizations
realized that their goals could not be realized through narrow focus and without context. The chart
below, used in both projects, initiated discussion of key driving forces for both organizations’
scenarios. As it stands now, the current system of public education is perfectly designed to produce
a permanent underclass by sorting students on the basis of out-of-date standards.
The scenarios for both organizations are highlighted below. The full text of each scenario set is
available at www.gbn.com/education. In tandem, they give views of the forces shaping public
education from a national perspective. The Schott Foundation scenarios are at highest level and are
presented first.

The Long View of Public Education

Initial Industrial Model Two Options and Context of Change

Sorting Model
Just enough to work
in the factories Separate the elite from Political developments
the regulars
“No Child Left Behind”
law
Technological
advances
More competition
Know ledge-age
requirements
Global competition
Teacher and student
demographics

GBN Global Business Network • The Future of Public Primary School Education in the United States 3
The Schott Foundation for Public Education Scenarios
The Schott Foundation scenarios were finalized at the end of 2003, when the nation was freshly
responding the events of September 11, 2001, and fighting active wars on two fronts. As with any set
of scenarios, the context at the time of writing colors them; it particularly colors the most expected
scenario—the one that extrapolates current conditions and that many believe to the most likely future. In
this light, “The War Machine” scenario stands out. The scenario matrix for the Schott Scenarios is shown
below.

The two most important and uncertain primary drivers for the scenarios were “shifts in the political will of
the dominant culture” and “changes in technology and modes of learning.” The meaning and context for
the two drivers are explained below.

The Schott Scenario Matrix

Inclusion/Community
of the Dominant Culture

1 2
The Illusion of Inclusion The Dream Emerges

Slow Developing Innovative

Shifts in Political Will

Drill & Kill Change in Technology and Modes of Learning Engaging

3 4
The True Believers The War Machine

Elitism/Individualism

Shifts in the Political Will of the Dominant Culture

The term “dominant culture” goes beyond the U.S.’s White majority to include all those who hold
what are considered “American” values. These values are tied to concepts like self-made man,
winner-take-all, market-based capitalism, material consumption, the ideal meritocracy, and the love
of power. The dominant culture is also seen as favoring Christianity over other religions. These
concepts are not race specific, and can be held by Americans (and immigrants) of all persuasions.
The scenario group felt that a dominant majority of people would lead the nation in its evolution,
even if its ideas were first brought into the mainstream by small, innovative groups. Ideas would
have to “prove” themselves to the majority before taking hold. What would be the direction of this
kind of thinking?

GBN Global Business Network • The Future of Public Primary School Education in the United States 4
Change in Technology and Modes of Education
The group noted that technologies that are developed for the general consumer market also have
application in the field of education. PalmPilots, the internet, cellphones, and other emerging
technologies could work together in the classroom in interesting ways, affecting not only education
but lifestyles. As we begin to know more about the brain, learning styles, and cognition, we will
also know more about what sorts of new technologies could be developed in order to promote
better learning. With lifestyle changes, the whole idea of and approaches to learning could develop
in new ways. What might all of this lead to?
High-level summaries of the Schott Foundation scenarios follow below.

Scenario 1: The Illusion of Inclusion

This is a world in which many long-held views about what it means to be human are challenged. It is the opening of a
new era of human existence in which technology and economic productivity interconnect in a way that empowers
elites to control the way people experience consumer goods and services through skillful technological
manipulation. In this world, Americans are what they consume, only they do not realize that their choices are actually
quite limited. The elite use powerful communications and media technologies to manipulate consumers into believing
that they have incredibly choice in the clothes they wear, the TV shows they watch, the books that they read, etc. In
reality, they are only being presented with a limited list of choices, and these choices are dictated by an underlying
profit motive and powerful economics of scale and scope. Those limited choices give the "illusion of inclusion," but
in reality true choice—of goods and services as well as the underlying value system—is never on the table. Political
leaders, most with corporate and business backgrounds, never question this state of affairs. In fact, they are its
biggest proponents.

Scenario 2: The Dream Emerges

This is a world in which the dominant ideals and values that drive America’s political culture shift to a higher level of
consciousness about the role of human beings on planet Earth. Americans, through some pain and suffering, begin
to see value in becoming more responsive to concerns about the impact of their activities on the rest of the world.
This new awareness is triggered by the emergence of new leaders who reflect these new values, as well as a series
of pivotal developments, which include failure in war and fatigue with the human and financial costs of using violence
to solve differences; scientific discoveries that clarify the deep “sameness” of all people; technological advances
that enable faster and more intimate communications and build a sense of global identity among all people; and
worldwide media images that show the destructiveness and horror of the misuse of American power.

Scenario 3: The True Believers

This is a world in which fear and painful events create a negative vortex of vengeful politics and shattered economic
hopes. Feelings of economic and social progress that were right at our fingertips on September 10, 2001, were
snatched away on September 11. Still consumed with post-9/11 protectionism, the U.S. continues to be unable to
reestablish trust with other nations, and the same is true for other countries—the kind of trust that allows a smooth
working out of differences through dialogue rather than war is globally absent. That same kind of trust is vital to
expanded trade and fast economic growth, and so these are stunted as well. This lack of trust also pervades
internal American life. Communities do not trust one another, especially as they compete for a smaller pool of
resources. This lack of trust leads to internal divisiveness in the U.S., as different groups come to see their first
priority as "taking care of their own"—especially the people who most agree with their views and values. In this
world, there are “insiders" and "outsiders” of many stripes, leading to a contentious and negative spiral in social
relations within the U. S.

GBN Global Business Network • The Future of Public Primary School Education in the United States 5
Scenario 4: The War Machine
This is a world that many will argue the U.S. was forced into by the events of September 11, 2001. It is one in
which openness, hope for the best in people, and expansive global economic prosperity are pushed aside by fear,
hatred, and isolationism. In this world, the leadership of the nation pursues an agenda of military strength at all
costs, believing that this will protect the nation and secure its economic and social future. Driven by bad news from
wars abroad and continued terrorist attacks at home and abroad, the American electorate feels it has no choice but
to support this power/fear agenda. The movement of resources, tax revenues, and talent toward this objective
affects the availability of resources for other social and political purposes, especially the development of the U.S.
primary-school education system.

Using these scenarios as a starting point, the Schott Foundation has proceeded to engage in a
strategy development and program of actions that would be robust across all the scenarios. This
includes an information campaign to research, organize, clarify, and publicize the best data on the
nature of the educational challenges facing Black and Brown boys. It will also include, in the near
future, a program to invigorate and support community-based organizations that want to address
these issues at the local level. Most importantly, the Schott Foundation has made a long-term
commitment to these issues and will not be satisfied with or believe in shallow fixes. The people at
Schott understand Black and Brown boys’ educational challenges in their full political, social,
economic, financial, technological, and cultural dimensions.

GBN Global Business Network • The Future of Public Primary School Education in the United States 6
The Public Education Network Scenarios
The PEN scenarios were created in mid-2005. Like the Schott Foundation scenarios, they were
influenced by issues of the times. Concern about collapsing urban public educations systems and
expanding school voucher programs are captured in both the “Locking in the Divide” and the “Down, But
Not Out” scenarios. The PEN scenario matrix is shown below.

The most important and uncertain drivers of change selected by the PEN scenario team were “changing
values and beliefs about public education” and “the U.S. economy and its influence on public education.”
The meaning and context for the two drivers are explained below.

The PEN Scenario Matrix

1 2
Locking in the Divide U.S. Economy/ Influence on Public Education Toward the Highest
Grow ing Globalization
Rising Standards

Low Value Highly

for the
Changing Values and Beliefs about Public Education Valued
Poor
for All

3 4
Down, But Not Out The Mediocre Middle
Slow er Globalization
Routine Standards

Changing Values and Beliefs About Public Education

This driver reflects the group’s concern that a significant majority of Americans might come to
believe that public education is similar to public housing: a low-quality last resort for people who
for some reason (probably their own fault) could not do any better. In such a case, they would not
value public education or see it as something that should be encouraged or supported beyond a
minimal level. Would Americans believe public education to be indicative of failure and suited
only for a few unfortunate people—mostly minorities and immigrants?

The U.S. Economy and Its Influence on Public Education

In selecting this driver, the group was reflecting on the globalization of the U.S. economy and what
this would mean for educational requirements for jobs, international comparisons of student
performance, and areas of study related to technology development and national competitiveness.
How strong would these influences be, and what might be the responses?
High-level summaries of the PEN scenarios follow below.

GBN Global Business Network • The Future of Public Primary School Education in the United States 7
Scenario 1: Locking in the Divide
This is a world in which the public education system in the U.S. divides into two systems: one for the poor and those
viewed as incapable of learning at a high level and one for the middle and upper classes and those viewed as
deserving their position in the meritocracy of American culture. Within all schools academic tracking systems lock
into place, supported by increasing reliance on standardized tests. The American education system, in an attempt
to raise the performance of all children, adopts a hard-edged sorting system that benefits the children who are
adept at the dominant auditory teaching and learning style, and who have access to financial resources to
supplement their learning. The system fails and pushes aside into low-performing and low-expectation schools those
children who are poor or who need a wider range of teaching and learning styles. Immigrants and children with
language or other cultural issues are assumed to be either slow learners and too expensive to teach to a high level
using public funds.
The public education system is reflecting decisions made in the broader society, including near religious belief in
competition and market solutions to problems in not only the economic sphere but the social and political spheres
as well. People see themselves more as customers than citizens, readily accepting the idea that social services can
benefit from private enterprise-type thinking. This is in alignment with widespread acceptance of the age of
economic globalization and the political demands for the U.S. to hold a dominant position as it unfolds. In this
process Americans who dominate the political and economic spheres believe that having winners and losers is
unavoidable and in most cases the losers will be ethnic minorities who are seen as low-value contributors to social
progress.

Scenario 2: Toward the Highest

This is a world in which the public education system in the U.S. is elevated to a position that anchors the evolution of
American society to a higher level of consciousness about human potential. The public education system is allowed
to expand and integrate further into a society that views lifelong learning and open systems of learning as vital to
being fully human. Schools are no longer defined by walls and teaching is no longer confined to the classroom or
solely to traditional educators. Enabled by technology, the world is seen as a learning space and all American
children are valued as potential contributors to society. U.S. public support for education expands outside the
traditional state-led form.
This shift in political and social values is enabled not only by technology but also by the expanding creation of wealth
that is shared through changes in political and economic policy. New technologies and discoveries expand human
understanding and further expose the interconnectedness of all human life. This leads to a more open and
supportive political dynamic that raises the focus on education for all. Those movements within the U.S. are
reflective of similar changes in other parts of the world. The movement toward economic globalization continues but
with a healthier respect for sharing the wealth and for social and cultural transitions that must be given time.
International dialogues are more effective and lead to more peaceful relations as the U.S. finds a way to share world
leadership and thrive in the age of globalization.

Scenario 3: Down, But Not Out

This is a world in which the public education system in the U.S. is largely abandoned by all except the poor, who
have no other choice, and a few dedicated true believers. Middle- and upper-income people come to believe that
public education, like public housing, is something that is a last resort and generally results in a dangerous
environment. The traditional public education system suffers a critical lack of political support when programs such
as vouchers and privately managed charter schools and faith-based schools with access to state funding are
expanded and show some initial positive results. Critical financial resources are siphoned from public education
systems, leading to a tailspin that quickly results in widespread fiscal collapses in most states. Teachers’ unions and
administrators are pulled into the collapse and for several years confusion and a "last-one-out mentality" reigns.
Eventually only poor minorities and immigrants attend most urban public schools, while some rural public schools
survive and produce in obscurity.
The federal government, seeing no national solution or political benefits, returns public schools entirely back over to
the states with few strings attached to the remaining minimal federal funding support. The demise of public schools

GBN Global Business Network • The Future of Public Primary School Education in the United States 8
is symptomatic of what is going on in the broader society as economic globalization is proving to be a race to the
bottom—the search for the lowest wages and lowest-cost production thus leaving many Americans afraid for their
future. What wealth is being created is benefiting the few elites and squeezing the middle class. Many Americans
blame immigrants for their plight. However, after more than a decade of decline, public schools begin to innovate.
Left with a system that could be rebuilt from the ashes, a diverse pool of talented students, dedicated teachers, and
a few intellectuals create what will become a productive twenty-first century public education system. They become
innovators using social diversity and modern technology to deliver high levels of performance.

Scenario 4: The Mediocre Middle

This is a world in which the public education system in the U.S. has to face some tough compromises and ends up
settling for a bland and mediocre result. The valiant attempts to create a system where all children can learn at the
highest levels proves too expensive and complicated to build on top of the legacies of the entrenched existing
system. The kind of teachers, facilities, policies, and technology needed to shift as diverse a country as the United
States to a higher-level public education system for all students proves impossible to coordinate. Given the financial
and organizational limitations of the existing system, and the widely varying needs of an increasingly diverse student
body, a compromise is made with the federal government in which states and teachers are put firmly back in control
of public education reform. Determination of standards and the methods for achieving them are brought back to the
local level, where there is a desire for a “back to basics” approach as vouchers and charter schools are seen as
failed and expensive experiments.
Globalization is turning out to be a bitter pill to swallow as many Americans find floods of immigrants and cheap
goods a mixed blessing. Real wages are falling or stagnant, and good jobs hard to find and keep. Many
communities turn inward and demand control of institutions like public schools that anchor their values and hold
neighborhood relationships together. By putting trust into local teachers and administrators, voting parents indicate
that they support traditional public education, especially if costs can be controlled using traditional political means.
The educational standards that emerge are anchored in a back-to-basics approach implemented to help most
children achieve a moderate level of performance in basic reading, science, and mathematics. Access to education
is the goal, but not high quality and cost.

As its name states, PEN is a network. Its central headquarters work in cooperation and coordination
with a network of local education funds to implement its strategies and policies. Accordingly, PEN
shared its scenarios with local education fund leaders and engaged them in local strategy
development discussion and idea sharing for national-level actions. Like the Schott Foundation,
PEN is pursuing robust strategies that will work in all scenarios. Its primary strategy will be
engaging the public as well as political and business leaders in supporting public education as a
foundation to a healthy and functioning democracy.

GBN Global Business Network • The Future of Public Primary School Education in the United States 9
Reflections on the Future of Public Education from Both Sets
of Scenarios
The two sets of scenarios can be roughly placed on top of each other, with the Schott Foundation
scenario playing at a slightly more elevated level. Schott’s scenarios are less focused on evolution in the
schools than on the national forces shaping what resources are made available, while the PEN scenarios
give a closer sense of what will be affecting school systems in states and districts. If superimposed on
one another, you could argue that the higher-level political and technological worlds created in the
Schott Foundation scenarios might contribute to or enable the conditions leading to the shifts in public
schools envisioned in the PEN scenarios. It is not an exact fit, but the overlay is instructive because it
allows a macro or high-level look at the forces shaping national political, social, and applicable
technology development contexts, which are in turn shaping beliefs and decisions about public
education, to which the public education system must respond.

Overlaying the Scenarios

Inclusion/Community
Shifts in Political Will of the Dominant Culture

The Illusion of Inclusion The Dream Emerges

Locking in the Divide Toward the Highest

Slow Developing Innovative

Drill & Kill Change in Technology and Modes of Learning Engaging

The True Believers The War Machine

Down, but Not Out The Mediocre Middle

Elitism/Individualism

For example, I can easily imagine the conditions in Schott’s “War Machine” scenario leading to a
public education system like that imagined in PEN’s “Mediocre Middle” scenario, in which
standards are used to push a low level of performance for most children while an elite, selected on
merit, is sufficient enough to provide an elite of leaders for business and government. Conditions in
the “Dream Emerges” scenario might provide the only environment in which investment in public
education might reach that required for a system like the one envisioned in PEN’s “Toward the
Highest” scenario, where a wide range of approaches and technology are used to enable all children
to learn at their highest level, and this is held as a society-wide value.
The hard-edge “rightness” of Schott’s “True Believers” scenario might set the right conditions for
the collapse of public education imagined in PEN’s “Down, But Not Out” scenario, as public
education is sacrificed in an atmosphere of fear and “mine before yours.” Finally, the market-
driven, consumer-led world of Schott’s “Illusion of Inclusion” scenario could set in place a kind of
fuzzy, free-spending world where it is easy to ignore people on the bottom because a middle- to
upper-class income has allowed a veil of isolation.

GBN Global Business Network • The Future of Public Primary School Education in the United States 10
Pondering the parallels in these scenarios leads me toward several conclusions. It’s important for
me to note here that these further conclusions are ones that I personally am drawing, and are more a
reflection of my own thoughts as a scenarist than those of PEN and the Schott Foundation. It is my
hope that the implications listed below will drive more learning and discussion about issues that
badly need our attention.
1. A question emerged during my discussions with PEN’s leaders that captures a key political
pivot point: What is the difference between support for public education and public support
for education? Without a big change in political direction at the national level in the near
term, there will be unrelenting and irreversible pressure to bring the “wonders of
competition” into public education. Parents and many in the foundation community view
public education as hopelessly out of date, tangled in its own processes, and too slow to
respond to change. They argue that the system is broken, and even if it were repaired to
function as designed it would be obsolete. The question of continued public support for
education rather than support for the old system opens up avenues of new thinking. If this
idea gathers momentum and can be shown to work (i.e., with voucher programs) this might
open a flood gate of change.
2. It is unquestionably true that a functional democracy is not possible with an illiterate and
undereducated populace. Freedom of the press, for example, would become moot. This
argues for the prominence of education as a goal—not necessarily for the public education
system as it stands. One could argue that a system of publicly supported home schooling
with modern communications might be just as fair a way to achieve this goal. Public
education emerges primarily as a political choice grounded in equal access and protection
for all citizens (still an important consideration). But a fair question to ask is: With new
technology enabling new organizational models and learning techniques, must the
traditional public education system remain largely intact? If traditional teachers are not the
best qualified to develop these new lines, shouldn’t others be given a chance? If there is a
better way, shouldn’t we release diverse talents to look for it? In a market-based
democracy, can this even be stopped (see chart below)?
3. I think the answer is no. Public education must evolve—and the rate of change must be
faster than the rate of change in union contract renegotiations. However, finding a better
system based on unproven theories is a big risk. The nation has endured this in misguided
attempts to change big institutions before, most recently in the electric power sector. A key
lesson learned here is that some services meet the vital needs of citizens but are not
completely amenable to market-based solutions. When the market fails or is imperfect, the
costs to society are too high; change is going to occur. But overconfident arguments about
“market-driven solutions” should be viewed with suspicion and challenged. Early signals
of problems should monitored and responded to quickly.
4. Have we reached the point that student-centered education is possible? Should this be the
goal? Traditional education is largely building-, teacher-, and book-centered. The student is
asked (required) to conform regardless of his or her needs. What would a public education
system look like if the needs and desires of the child were the organizing principle—not
managing capital and expense budgets for buildings, maintaining tenure for teachers, and
standardizing texts for the profit of large book publishers? Would innovation in this
direction actually help disadvantaged children rather than destroy their self-esteem because
they cannot conform quickly enough to the system? Would this approach allow more
integration with the fast-changing world outside the traditional classroom?

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 5. White female teachers alone cannot, simply by default, be left in the leading position of
educating America’s children. The teacher pool must become more diverse as quickly as
possible. This can be done innovatively by changing the role of teachers and formally
augmenting their jobs with more external, community-level contact. Teacher training and
development alone will not be sufficient because students need to see people like
themselves in positive roles. Legal, union-related, and other barriers to a more diverse pool
of people in schools must come down for the good of the students and the community. Men
from diverse ethnic groups are particularly needed, and untraditional roles may need to be
created for them. Without increased involvement by men of color, young men of color will
be without a vital link that often only direct contact with a role model can provide.
6. Racial integration in public primary schools might formally remain a widely desired tool
for achieving social cohesion and building cultural awareness and sensitivity from an early
age, but those goals will now have to be met through other ways. Urban development
trends, housing patterns, demographics, and school financing trends will prevent the
balanced integration envisioned following the fabled Brown decision by the Supreme
Court. The risks of social isolation perpetuating bigotry will still exist. Other methods
involving the media, workforce training, and political organizing will need to be created.
7. The Federal No Child Left Behind Act (NCLB) will assuredly be dismantled in court
challenges and “correcting” legislation. The noble objectives of NCLB of countering “the
bigotry of low expectations” and increasing global competitiveness of our students will
remain frustratingly difficult to reach. Its core problems lie in the details of its
implementation (where some excellent work is being penalized) and, to a lesser extent,
how its focus on performance is narrowing education to bland results that do not encourage
the kind of broad, diverse interests and talents human beings have. It will also stands on
weak financial legs as the full cost of meeting its requirements will not be funded by
federal tax dollars. Ample bases for law suits will continue to emerge.

The Complexity of Public Education

Select one or more from each column and imagine a school with
that focus for its approach to education, or as a market segment.

Purpose Served Parental Expectations Learning Styles/Factors

- Support democracy - Support religious v alues - Visual

- Support local
community
- Support a div erse
society
- Train for the w ork place
- Support sense of
self/personal ev olution
- Sustain ethnic identity
- Skill building/career
preparation
- Sorting/ assessing/ merit
- Meet special needs
- Auditor y
- Kinesthetic/
manipulativ e
- Primary/secondary
combinations of the
above
- Self-esteem support
- Health issues
- External barriers

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The work of the Schott Foundation and PEN and the thinking that their work has sparked are only
the beginning of a tough but important path. Most organizations involved in education do not think
about the future of education on this level; they aren’t looking at the outside forces that are shaping
and reshaping them because day-to-day and local concerns can be so challenging. But the truth is
that if any progress is to be made, education has to respond to these major forces. The Schott
Foundation and PEN already understand that. They understand that education does not take place
in a vacuum—that it is situated within larger structures and forces, and that understanding and
exploring education in those contexts, with all of its messiness, is vital to moving forward. Holding
on to values that respect and foster the ability of all children to reach their highest potential should
be the corner stone of re-making a public education system for the twenty-first century. And taking
advantage of our new capabilities will demand releasing some old ways of doing things.

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