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Tutorial: 1

Addition theorem of Probability:

1) From the past experience a stockbroker believes that under present economic conditions a
customer will invest in tax-free bonds with a probability of 0.6 will invest mutual funds with
probability of 0.3 and will invest in both tax-free bonds and mutual funds with probability of
0.15. At this time, find the probability that a customer will invest
a) In either tax-free bonds or mutual funds
b) in neither tax-free bounds nor mutual funds
c) in only one investment
2) In a high school graduating class of 100 students, 54 studied mathematics, 69 studied history,
and 35 studied both Mathematics and history. If one of these students is selected at random, find
the probability that
a) the student took Mathematics or History.
b) the student did not take either of these subjects.
c) the student took History but not Mathematics.
d) the student took only one of History or Mathematics.
Conditional and Multiplicative rule of probability:
3) Pollution of the rivers in the United States has been a problem for many years. Consider the
following events.
A= {the rivers is polluted.}
B={A sample of water tested detects pollution.}
C= {Fishing permitted.}
Assume
P(A)=0.3, P(B/A)=0.75
P ( B / A1 ) 0.20, P(C / A B ) 0.20, P(C / A1 B) 0.15, P(C / A B1 ) 0.80,and
P (C / A1 B1 ) 0.90

P ( A B C ).
a) Find
P ( B 1 C ).
b) Find
c) Find P(C).
d) Find the probability that the river is polluted, given that fishing permitted and the sample
tested did not detect pollution.
4) In the senior year of a high school graduating class of 100 students, 42 studied mathematics,
68 studied psychology, 54 studied history, 22 studied both mathematics and history, 25 studied
both mathematics and psychology, 7 studied history but neither mathematics nor psychology, 10
studied all three subjects and 8 did not take any of the three. If a student is selected at random,
find the probability that
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a) a person is taking at least one subject

b) a person enrolled in psychology takes all three subjects.
c) a person not taking psychology is taking both history and mathematics.
5) A manufacturer of a flu vaccine is concerned about the quality of its flu serum. Batches of
serum are processed by three different departments having rejection rates of 0.10, 0.08, and 0.12
respectively. The inspections by the three departments are sequential and independent.
a) what is the probability that a batch of serum survives the first departmental inspection but is
rejected by the second department?
b) what is the probability that a batch of serum is rejected by the third department?
c) what is the probability that a batch of serum survives all three departmental inspection?
6) Find the probability of randomly selecting 4 good quarts of milk in succession from a cooler
containing 20 quarts of which 5 have spoiled.
Bayes theorem of probability:
7) Police plan to enforce speed limits by using radar traps at 4 different locations within the city
L1 , L2 , L3 , and L4
limits. The radar traps at each of the location are operated 40%, 30%, 20% and
10% of the time and if a person who is speeding on his way to work has probabilities of 0.2, 0.1,
0.5 and 0.2 respectively, of passing through these locations, what is the probability that he will
receive a speeding ticket?
8) Suppose that four inspectors at a film factory are supposed to stamp the expiration date on
each package of film at the end of the assembly line. John, who stamps 20% of the packages;
fails to stamp the expiration date once in every 200 packages; Tom, who stamps 60% of the
packages, fails to stamp the expiration date once in every 100 packages; Jeff, who stamps 15% of
the packages, fails to stamp the expiration date once in every 90 packages; and Pat, who stamps
5% of the packages, fails to stamp the expiration date once in every 200 packages. If a customer
complains that her package of film does not show the expiration date, what is the probability that
it was inspected by John?
9) Amy commutes to work by two different routes A and B. If she comes home by route A, then
she will be home no later than 6 P. M. with probability 0.8, but if she comes home by route B,
then she will be home no later than 6 P. M. with probability 0.7. In the past, the proportion of
times that Amy chose route A is 0.4. If Amy is home after 6 P. M. today, what is the probability
that she took route B?
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Tutorial: 2
Random variables, Probability density function and Cumulative distribution function:
1) If a car agency sells 50% of its inventory of a certain foreign car equipped with airbags, find
a formula for the probability distribution of the number of cars with airbags among the next 4
cars sold by the agency, find cumulative distribution function.
2) The Department of energy (DOE) puts projects out on bid and generally estimates what a
reasonable bid should be. Call the estimate b. The DOE has determined that the density
function of the winning(low) bid is
5 2
, b y 2b,
f ( y ) 8b 5
0 elsewhere

a) Find F(y) and use it to determine the probability that the winning bid is less than the
DOEs preliminary estimate b.
b) Find (by2b)
3) The time to failure in hours of an important piece of electronic equipment used in a
manufactured DVD player has the density function
1
exp( x / 2000), x 0
f ( x ) 2000
0, x 0.

a) Find the cumulative distribution function

b) Determine the probability that the component ( and thus the DVD player) lasts more
than 1000 hours before the component needs to be replaced.
c) Determine the probability that the component fails before 2000 hours.
Joint Marginal and Conditional density functions:
4) A service facility operates with two service lines. On a randomly selected day, let X be the
proportion of time that the first line is in use whereas Y is the proportion of time that the
second line is in use. Suppose that the joint probability density function for (X, Y) is

{
3 ( 2 2)
x + y , 0 x , y 1,
f ( x , y )= 2
0, elsewhere

a) Compute the probability that neither line is busy more than half the time.
b) Find the probability that the first line is busy more than 75% of the time.
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5) Consider the following joint probability density function of the random variables X and Y :

{
3 x y
, 1< x <3,1< y <2,
f ( x , y )= 9
0, elsewhere

a) Find the marginal density functions of X and Y.

b) Are X and Y independent?
c) Find P(X>2).
Determine the Mean and Variance of a Random variable:

6) If A dealers profit in units of $5000, on a new automobile can be looked upon as a random
variable X having the density function
2( x 1) 0 x 1
f ( x)
0 elsewhere

Find the average profit per automobile and its standard deviation
7) Suppose that the number of cars X that pass through a car wash between 4 P.M and 5 P.M on
any sunny Friday has the following probability distribution:
X 4 5 6 7 8 9
P(X=x) 1/12 1/12 1/6 1/6
Let g(X) =2X-1 represent the amount of money in dollars, paid to the attendant by the manager.
Find the attendants expected earnings and variance for this particular time period.
8) The random variable X representing the number of errors per 100 lines of software code, has
the following probability distribution:
X 2 3 4 5 6
f(x) 0.01 0.25 0.4 0.3 0.04

Find the standard deviation of X.

9) Suppose that the probabilities are 0.4, 0.3, 0.2, and 0.1, respectively, that 0, 1, 2. Or 3power
failures will strike a certain subdivision in any given year. Find the mean and variance of the
random variable X representing the number of power failures striking this subdivision.

Tutorial: 3
Binomial distribution
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1) The probability that a patient recovers from a rare blood disease is 0.4. If 15 people are
known to have contracted this disease,
(a) Find the mean and variance of the number of patients who recovered from the blood
disease
(b) Find the probability that exactly 5 survive from the disease
(c) Find the probability that at least 10 survive from the disease
(d) Find the probability that 3 to 8 survive form the disease
(e) Find the probability that at most 3 survive the disease
(f) Find the probability that all will survive the disease
(g) Find the probability that none will survive the disease
2) It is conjectured that an impurity exists in 30% of all drinking wells in a certain rural
community. In order to gain some insight on this problem, it is determined that some tests
should be made. It is too expensive to test all of the wells in the area, so 10 were
randomly selected for testing,
a) Using the binomial distribution, what is the probability that exactly 3 wells have the
impurity assuming that the conjecture is correct?
b) What is the probability that more than 3 wells are impure?
c) What is the probability that not more than 2 wells?
3) In a certain city district the need for money to buy drugs is stated as the reason for 75% of
all thefts. What is the probability that among the next 5 theft cases reported in this
district?
a) None resulted from the need for money to buy drugs
b) At least one resulted from the need to buy drugs
(a) Exactly 2 resulted from the need for money to buy drugs
(b) At most 3 resulted from the need for money to buy drugs
4) It is known that 60% of mice inoculated with a serum are protected from a certain
disease. If 5 mice are inoculated, what is the probability that
(a) none contracts the disease; b) fewer than 2 contract the disease;
(b) more than 3 contract the disease.
Binomial distribution MATLAB/R:
1) A nationwide survey of seniors by the University of Michigan reveals that almost 70%
disapprove of daily pot smoking, according to a report in Parade. If 12 seniors are
selected at random and asked their opinion, what is the probability that the number who
disapprove of smoking pot daily is
(a) anywhere from 7 to 9;
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(b) at most 5;
(c) not less than 8.
2) One prominent physician claims that 70% of those with lung cancer are chain smokers. If
his assertion is correct,
(a) what is the probability that of 10 such patients recently admitted to a hospital, fewer
than half are chain smokers;
(b) what is the probability that of 20 such patients recently admitted to a hospital, fewer
than half are chain smokers;
(a) at least 5 began taking Valium for problems that were not psychological
Poisson distribution:

Tutorial Problems:
1 On an Average a certain intersection results in 3 Traffic accidents per month. What is the
probability that for any given month at this intersection
a) Exactly 5 accidents will occur?
b) Less than 3 accidents will occur?
c) at least 2 accidents will occur?
2. Suppose that, on average, 1 person in 1000 makes a numerical error in preparing his or her
income Tax return. If 10000 forms are selected at random and examined, find the probability
that 6, 7 or 8 of the forms contain an error. Also find mean and Variance.
3. An automobile manufacturer is concerned about a fault in the breaking mechanism of
particular model. The Fault can, on rare occasions, cause a catastrophe at high speed. The
distributions of the number of cars per year that will experience the fault as a Poisson random
variable with =5.
a) What is the probability that at most three cars per year will experience a catastrophe?
b) What is the probability that more than one car per year will experience a catastrophe.
Poisson distribution MATLAB/R:
1) The probability that a person will die from certain respiratory infection is 0.002.Find the
probability that fewer than 5 of the next 2000 so infected will die. Also find mean and
Variance.
2) An Inventory study determines that, on average, demands for a particular item at a ware
house are made 5 times per day. What is the probability that on a given day this item is
requested
a) more than 5 times b) not at all?
Tutorial: 4
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Geometric distribution:

1. A person flips a coin until he gets the first head. Let X be the flips required a) what is the
probability that X=4 b) find the mean and variance of X.
2. According to a study published by a group of University of Massachusetts sociologists, about
two third of the 20million persons in this country who take valium are women. Assuming this
figure to be a valid estimate, find the probability that on a given day the fifth prescription written
by a doctor for valium is the first prescribing valium for a woman.
3. An automated weight monitor can detect under filled cans of beverages with probability 0.98.
What is the probability it fails to detect an under filled can for the first time when it encounters
the 10th under filled car?
Geometric distribution-MATLAB:
1. A company fabricates special-purpose robots, and records show that the probability is 0.10 that
one of its new robots will require repairs during confirmation tests. What is the probability that
the eighth robot in builds in a month is the first one to require repairs? Also determine the mean
and variance.
Hyper Geometric distribution:

1) A random committee of size 3 is selected from 4 doctors and 2 nurses. Write a formula
for the probability distribution of the random variable X representing the number of

P(2 x 3).
doctors on the committee. Find
2) A manufacturing company uses an acceptance scheme on production items before they
are shipped. The plan is a two stage one. Boxes of 25 are readied for shipment and a
sample of 3 is tested for defectives if any defectives are found, the entire box is sent
back for 100% screening. If no defectives are found, the box is shipped.
a) What is the probability that a box containing 3 defectives will be shipped?
b) What is the probability that a box containing only 1 defective will be sent back for
screening.
3) It is estimated that 4000 of the 10,000 voting residents of a town are against a new sales
tax. If 15 eligible voters are selected at random and asked their opinion,
a) What is the probability that the at most 7 favour the new tax?
b) What is the probability that none will favour the new tax?
c) What is the probability that all favour the new tax?
Hyper geometric distribution-MATLAB:
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1) A national wide survey of 17,000 seniors by the University of Michigan revealed that almost
70% disprove of daily pot smoking. If 18 of these seniors are selected at random asked their
opinions, what is the probability that more than 9 but less than 14 disprove of smoking pot?
2) A company is interested in evaluating its current inspection procedure on shipments of 50
identical items. The procedure is to take a sample of 5 and pass the shipment if no more than
2 are found to be defective. What proportions of 20% defective shipments will be accepted.

Tutorial 5

Uniform distribution:

1. In a certain experiments, the error made in determining the solubility of a substance is a

random variable having the uniform density with A=-0.025 and B=0.025. What are the
probabilities that such an error will be
a) Between 0.010 and 0.015
b) Between -0.012 and 0.012?
Exponential distribution:

1. The life, in years, of a certain type of electrical switch has an exponential distribution with an
average life =2. If 100 of these switches are installed in different systems, what is the
probability that at most 30 fail during the first year?
2. The length of time between breakdowns of an essential piece of equipment is important in the
decision of the use of auxiliary equipment. An engineer thinks that the best model for time
between breakdowns of a generator is the exponential distribution with a mean of 15 days.
a) If the generator has just broken down, what is the probability that it will break down in the
next 21 days?
b) What is the probability that the generator will operate for 30 days without a breakdown?
Exponential distribution-MATLAB:
1. The life of a certain type of device has an advertised failures rate of 0.01 per hour. The failure
rate is constant and the exponential distribution applies.
a) What is the mean time to failure?
b) What is the probability that 200 hours will pass before a failure is observed?
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2. The amount of time that a surveillance camera will run without having to be rest is a random
variable having the exponential distribution with =50 days. Find the probabilities that such a
camera will
a) have to be reset in less than 20 days;
b) not have to be reset in at least 60 days.

Tutorial:6
Normal distribution:

1. Given the normally distributed variable X with mean 18 and standard deviation 2.5, find
a) P(X<15);
b) the value of k such that P(X<k)=0.2236;
c) the value of k such that P(X>k)=0.1814;
d) P(17<X<21).
2. Given random variable X having a normal distribution with =50 and =10, find the
probability that X assumes a value
(a) between 45 and 62 (b) less than 20 (c) more than 40
3. Gauges are used to reject all components where a certain dimensions are not within the

specification 1.50 d. It is known that this measurement is normally distributed with mean

1.50 and standard deviation 0.2.Determine the value d such that the specifications cover 95%
of the measurements.
1. In an industrial process the diameter of a ball bearing is an important component part. The

buyer sets specifications on the diameter to be 3.0 0.01 cm. The implication is that no

part falling outside these specifications will be accepted. It is known that in the process the
diameter of a ball bearing has a normal distribution with mean =3.0 and standard deviation
=0.005. On the average, what % of manufactured ball bearings will be scraped?
Normal distribution-MATLAB:

1 A certain machine makes electrical resistors having a mean resistance of 40 Ohms and
standard deviation of 2 Ohms. Assuming that the resistance follows a normal distribution and
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can be measured to any degree of accuracy, what percentage of resistors will have resistance
exceeding 43 Ohms?
2. The Heights of 1000 students are normally distributed with a mean of 174.5cm and a standard
deviation of 6.9 cm. assuming that the heights are recorded to the nearest half-cm, how many
of these students would you expect to have heights
a)less than 160.0 cms?
b) between 171.5 and 182.0 cms inclusive?
c) equal to 175.0cm?
d) grater than or equal to 188.0cms.
Weibull distribution:
1. The length of life in hours, of a drill in a mechanical operation has a Weibull distribution with
=2 and =50. Find the probability that the bit will fail before 10 hours of usage.
1. Suppose that the time to failure (in minutes) of certain electronic components subjected to
continuous vibrations may be looked upon as a random variable having the Weibull
distribution with =1/5 and =1/3.
a) How long can such a component be expected to last?
b) What is the probability that such a component will fail in less than 5 hours?
Weibull distribution-MATLAB:

1. Suppose that the service life (in hours) of a semiconductor device is a random variable
having the Weibull distribution with =0.025 and =0.500. What is the probability that such
a device will still be in operating condition after 4,000 hours?