Oregon White Oak Climate

Suitability Analysis
Alice Lazzar-Atwood, Kelly Lyons, Tori Niewohner
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Introduction

As the climate changes in the future, we can expect shifts in the ranges of many species.

Changing climatic conditions means that areas that were once suitable for a species may no

longer be suitable and areas that were previously not suitable may become suitable. Quantifying

these range shifts will allow us to predict where we will and will not see a particular species in

the future. In addition, it can help us to identify areas where we could successfully plant or move

species that are threatened by climate change.

Our objective was to develop a GIS-based model that could quantify the projected shifts

in the range of tree species under various future climate scenarios. In order to test this model,

we used the tree species

Oregon White Oak (Quercus garryana) (Figure 1). The climate data

that we used to quantify current suitability was a compilation of data of various bioclimatic

variables from 1961 to 1990. For the future climate prediction we used the A2 high emission

scenario prediction for the 2050s.

Figure 1. Oregon White Oak (Quercus garryana). Photo from Common Trees of the Pacific
Northwest, Oregon State University.
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Our Oregon White Oak range data shows that it is primarily in the western portions of

Washington State, Oregon, and northern California, but it exists in several pockets in central

California, Vancouver Island, and southern British Columbia (Figure 2).

Figure 2. Oregon White Oak (Quercus garryana) range depicted in green. The species exists in
Pacifc Northwest. Data from USGS.

Oregon White Oak grows in a diverse array of climatic conditions (Stein). The species

current extent has a temperature range of about -11 C to 29 C (Gucker 2007). It has also

been found to have a minimum temperature requirement of -36 C (USDA Plants Database). It

is common in areas that have frequent droughts, but can also exist in moist areas (Stein).

Minimum precipitation required for its growth is 10 mm and maximum precipitation is 104 mm

(USDA Plants Database). Oregon White Oak acorns can germinate both under warm and moist
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conditions, and under low temperatures (Stein). The tree also needs a minimum of 63 frost-free

days (USDA Plants Database). Based on this information and realizations later on in the

analysis (see Methods), we used the bioclimatic variables of Mean Annual Temperature (MAT),

Mean Temperature of the Warmest Month (MWMT), Mean Annual Precipitation (MAP), Winter

Precipitation (December-February) (PPT_wt), and Summer Precipitation (June-August)

(PPT_sm) in order to determine the areas which are currently suitable for Oregon White Oak,

the areas with predicted suitability in the 2050s, and the subsequent predicted shift in range.

Data

The data used for this analysis came from two sources. The data showing the current

distribution of Oregon White Oak was obtained from USGS. It is in a vector shapefile format,

and consists of a polygon representing the range of Oregon White Oak. It is important to note

that this polygon does not contain any data for where these trees exist or do not exist within the

polygon, only that they have been known to exist within its boundaries. According to the

metadata, this shapefiles geographic coordinate system was North American Datum of 1927

(NAD 27), but the .prj file was damaged, so we used the define projection tool to repair this

problem.

The data containing the climate variables came from Andreas Hamann of UC Alberta.

Hamanns software produces historical and future datasets, relying on the CRU-TS 2.1 dataset

(Mitchell & Jones) for the historical sets, and predictions from the CMIP5 multimodel dataset

(Hamann) for future projections. For this analysis, we used historical datasets representing

1961-1990, and future datasets projecting the climate variables for 2050, assuming an A2

scenario. This data was all downloaded as ASCII raster files, and had a geographic coordinate

system of World Geodetic System 1984 (WGS 1984) and was projected in a general Lambert
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Conformal Conic. Following our literature review, we initially selected eight climate variables to

use in the analysis Mean Annual Temperature (MAT), Mean Temperature of the Coldest

Month (MCMT), Mean Temperature of the Warmest Month (MWMT), Number of Frost-Free

Days (NFFD), Mean Annual Precipitation (MAP), Precipitation as Snow (PAS), Summer

Precipitation (PPTsm), and Winter Precipitation (PPTwt). All precipitation data had cell units of

millimeters, NFFD had cell units of days, and all temperature data had units of C*10. Using the

expression [Layer Name/10] in raster calculator, we divided all the cell values of the

temperature data by 10, in order to obtain C units.

We created a custom projection for the analysis, developed from the North American

Lambert Conformal Conic, a shape preserving projection. The central meridian and latitude of

origin was based off of an estimation of the center of the oak distribution data. The central

meridian is -123.0, the latitude of origin is 44.0, and the standard parallels are 2 degrees north

and south of the latitude of origin (standard parallel 1 is 46.0 and standard parallel 2 is 42.0).

The intent of this customized Lambert Conformal Conic, named Custom Oak Lambert

Conformal Conic, was to minimize distortion around our area of interest the Oregon White Oak

range.

Using Feature Project for the oak distribution data, and Project Raster for all of the

climate variables, we projected all of the data into Custom Oak Lambert Conformal Conic. For

the raster data, the method of bilinear interpolation was used for resampling. This method

calculates the value of the output projected cell using a weighted average of the four nearest

input cell centers. This results in a smoother data set, ideal for continuous data like temperature

and precipitation. We used the naming scheme x_YYY_c for each output raster, in which x is

either b or f (baseline or future data), YYY is the climate variable (ex: MAT), and c denotes that

data is in the custom oak projection.

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Methods

To determine the expected shifts in the range of Oregon White Oak by 2050 as a result

of climate change under an A2 scenario, we first had to determine the historical and future

climate envelopes. A climate envelope attempts to model the ideal growing conditions for a

species using statistical correlations between the species range and the overlying climate

variables.

To begin this process, we applied the tool Zonal Statistics as Table to approximate

ideal growing conditions of each climate variable for the current Oregon White Oak distribution,

using the historical climate dataset. We ran this tool on each of the eight historical climate

layers, using the climate layer as the input, the oak distribution as the Feature Zone Data, and

the statistics type as Mean_STD. Under these settings, Zonal Statistics as Table calculated

the mean and standard deviation of the input climate data that fell within the feature zone oak

distribution data. Using these statistics, we experimented with different definitions of a climate

envelope for each climate variable, keeping in mind the ecological principle that the center of

environmental conditions within a species range is the generally the most ideal for that species.

We began with defining the envelope as a range of values encompassing the mean of each

variable plus and minus 1.5 standard deviations. At this point, we decided to cut PAS from the

analysis. The PAS data varied so much that the standard deviations were much greater than the

actual mean. Although snowfall is a factor in suitability for Oregon White Oak, it would not have

been statistically significant for this analysis.

Using the mean plus and minus 1.5 standard deviations as a definition for the climate

envelope, we proceeded to create a binary raster for the seven remaining historical climate
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layers using the expression (layer name>=(mean-std))&(layer name<=(mean+std)) in raster

calculator. The output cells that had a value that fell within the climate envelope were assigned

a 1 , and the cells outside of the envelope were assigned a 0. These binary rasters created a

very useful visual of the climate envelope we had previously defined using just a table of

statistics (Figure 3). We used the naming scheme b_YYY_calc, in which the b indicates

baseline (historical) data, the YYY represented the specific climate variable (ex: MAT), and the

calc indicates a binary raster.

Figure 3. The two maps above show input (left) and output (right) of the raster calculator
expression (b_MAT_c>=6.23)&(b_MAT_c<=14.18), using historical Mean Annual
Temperature (MAT) data (units are C) . The values 6.23 and 14.18 represent the mean +/- 2
standard deviations of the MAT within the current Oregon White Oak distribution, which define
the climate envelope for this variable. Suitable MAT on the output map represent the areas in
which the MAT is within the climate envelope for Oregon White Oak.

We explored the different historical binary rasters in comparison to the oak distribution

data, and made the decision to redefine the climate envelope as the mean of the climate
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variables within the oak distribution plus or minus 2 standard deviations, instead of 1.5. This

helped the envelope of each climate variable better cover the area of the oak distribution,

therefore making it a more accurate model (Figure 4). We also decided to cut the MCMT data at

this point. Creating the binary raster revealed that the range of values within the climate

envelope fell almost entirely outside of the distribution. This was clearly inaccurate, as the mean

and standard deviation we calculated only came from MCMT data within the distribution. We

rechecked the raster calculator inputs, but could not locate the source of the error, so we

omitted it from the analysis.

Figure 4. The two maps above show the climate envelope of Mean Annual Precipitation (MAP)
as defined as 1.5 standard deviations from the mean within the oak range (left), and 2 standard
deviations from the mean (right). The dashed red circles draw attention to particular spots within
the oak range that were improved by redefining the climate envelope from 1.5 to 2 standard
deviations. Ideally, the entire Oregon White Oak range would be included within the climate
envelope however, more factors influence suitability than just MAP.
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Next, we combined all six remaining historical climate binary rasters into a single binary

raster. To do this, we used the expression [(b_MAT_calc==1) & (b_MWMT_calc==1) &

(b_NFFD_calc==1) & (b_MAP_calc==1) & (b_PPTwt_calc==1) & (b_PPTsm_calc==1)].

The output raster, hist_clim, had cell values of 1 where the cell of every single input binary

climate raster had 1 values, and 0 values where one or more of the input binary rasters had 0

values (Figure 5). Therefore, this historical climate envelope covered the area that represented

the most ideal conditions for all six climate variables.

Figure 5. This model was used to create a historical climate envelope for the Oregon White Oak
Range. The process was then repeated with future climate data to produce a future climate
envelope.

Following the development of the historical climate envelope, we repeated the process of

creating binary rasters for the six future climate variables. We left the definition of the climate
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envelope exactly the same: 2 standard deviations from the mean of the historical climate data

within the Oregon White Oak distribution. We used the naming scheme f_YYY_calc, with the f

indicating future data. Using the same expression described in the previous paragraph but using

the f_YYY_calc binary layers instead of the b_YYY_calc binary layers, we combined all six

future rasters into one binary output raster, fut_clim. This raster modeled the future climate

envelope. Just like the historical climate envelope, a 1 value represented cells in which all six

future climate variables had suitable conditions, and a 0 value represented cells in which one or

more of the future climate variables were unsuitable.

The final step of this analysis was to determine the expected shift in the Oregon White

Oak range. To do this, we used raster calculator a final time, to subtract the historical climate

envelope raster from the future climate envelope raster. We used the expression

(fut_clim-hist_clim). This produced an output raster in which the cells had one of three

values: -1 indicated a loss in suitable area, 0 indicated no change in the areas suitability

(regardless of whether it started out suitable or unsuitable), and 1 indicated a gain in suitable

area. Using this output raster, change_env, we were able to symbolize the expected gains and

losses in climate suitability for Oregon White Oak over the next 34 years assuming an A2

climate scenario. This allowed us to predict the shifts in the Oregon White Oak range, since it

would most likely move away from areas that became unsuitable and towards areas that

became more suitable.

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Figure 6. Oregon White Oak (Quercus garryana) in native habitat in spring. Photo credit from
Oregon State Universitys Landscape Plants website.

Results

We found that the suitability envelopes will shift in the future. General climate change

models expect areas closer to the equator to be less suitable, with overall suitability increasing

towards the poles as the globe heats. Species will be affected by these changes, and our

prediction is that Oregon White Oak will lose parts of its habitat due to anthropogenic changes.
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Figure 7. Climate suitability for Oregon White Oak, predicted for the year 2050, based on A2
human emissions model for climate change scenario. The prediction was compared against
estimations of where climate was suitable for the tree species in the last half of the 20th century.

Green spaces on the maps represent locations where climate model variables suggest

suitability for Oregon White Oak, and brown spaces represent where climate suitability is

suggested to diminish. Based on modeling of climate change due to human emissions, habitat

for this species is expected to shift northwards and away from the coast. Losses were
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concentrated in the south towards Mexico, and gains were more frequent in northern latitudes

(Figure 7).

Figure 8. Historical climate suitability for Oregon White Oak, estimated based on climate data
gathered for years 1961 to 1990.

The historical distribution shows the tree species favoring coastal mid-latitude habitats

where climate conditions are mild (Figure 8). This coastal pattern is also seen for the future

suitability prediction, which suggests our model and the A2 model design successfully
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approximates suitable conditions (Figure 9). According to our model, future habitat will extend to

include extra land area roughly totaling the size of the state of Colorado.

Figure 9. Future climate suitability for Oregon White Oak, predicted for the year 2050 to
determine climate change impacts on habitat.
However, some of this newly suitable area is at high northern latitudes, and there is no

guarantee this tree species will be able to migrate on its own out of its current range to those

areas. Human-caused climate change will lead to fragmentation and loss of habitat. The areas

that will no longer be suitable for Oregon White Oak in the future total to be roughly the size of
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the state of Mississippi. Of the area that currently exists as climatically suitable for Oregon White

Oak, only 65% of it will be still suitable in the future.

The historical suitability envelope we created based on our choices of climate variables

was effective at approximating the recorded distribution range of Oregon White Oak. About 83%

of the area of the trees recorded range were captured by our estimated envelope for the 20th

century. This implies our model successfully approximates the favored climate of Oregon White

Oak. Improvements could still be made to make the model more representative of plant

tolerance to environmental stress. But overall, our model showed that Oregon White Oak will be

impacted by climate change, in that parts of its current range will become uninhabitable, while

other nearby parts of the region might become suitable new habitat.

Conclusion

The areas that are suitable for Oregon White Oak shifted under the A2 high emissions

scenario between the historical time period of 1961-1990 and the 2050s. In the future, we can

expect to see Oregon White Oak die off or at least decrease in density in the areas that are no

longer suitable for it (Figure 7). However, we will also possibly see the movement of Oregon

White Oak to areas that become suitable for it (Figure 7). The areas that will become unsuitable

for the tree are mostly further south in the United States or are desert and will presumably

become too warm or dry. There are many areas that become suitable for the tree which are

farther north and east. The northward increase in suitability can be explained by climatic

warming allowing Oregon White Oak growth. The eastward increase in suitability is somewhat

less clear, but looking at land patterns on Google Maps satellite imagery, it seems to be mostly

into areas that currently support trees. I would assume that these forested areas will be

changing climatically in some way that is more suitable for Oregon White Oak.
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The movement of Oregon White Oak away from areas that are no longer suitable and

towards areas that become suitable could have some ecological consequences. The movement

of the tree to new areas could possibly threaten existing species if it was able to outcompete

them in some way. In contrast, it is possible that Oregon White Oak could not succeed in the

new areas due to being outcompeted by other existing species. In addition, the areas that the

tree might die off in due to lower suitability could leave an open ecological niche. It is possible

that this niche would be filled by other species, but if not, it could affect the ecosystem in those

areas.

The new suitability climate envelope for Oregon White Oak will be useful information if

the species becomes endangered. If there are efforts to plant Oregon White Oak, it will need to

be done in areas that will remain suitable for it in the future to be effective for sustainability. This

analysis would be important for any species that are currently being re-planted in an effort to

increase its success. Knowing the areas that will and wont be suitable in the future would allow

for more success in efforts to protect endangered species.

This analysis could be improved in several ways. We did some basic research on the

bioclimatic variables that contribute to Oregon White Oaks success, but doing a more thorough

literature review would allow us to accurately select the correct bioclimatic variables to use. In

addition, it would be useful to find an expert on Oregon White Oak and speak to them about the

uercus garryana.
most important bioclimatic variables for q

During our research, we found that several factors such as the pH of the soil and a fire

regime were important for the growth of Oregon White Oak (Stein). In our analysis, we only

used historical and projected data on bioclimatic variables. If possible, it would strengthen the

analysis if we could find historical and projected data on soil pH and fire regimes under different
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emissions scenarios. Datasets like this may not exist, but if they did, they would make our

historical and predicted suitability ranges for Oregon White Oak more accurate.

The analysis would also be strengthened if we could obtain range data on Oregon White

Oak that was more detailed. The range data we used showed a general area where the tree

exists, but we dont know what the density of the tree is throughout that area. If we could use

data that better displayed the distribution of Oregon White Oak, we might be able to narrow its

range and calculate a more accurate suitability range for the various bioclimatic variables. This

would allow the historical and projected future suitability envelopes to be more accurate.

Finally, the method of producing the climate envelopes ignored potential nuances in the

relationship between Oregon White Oak and environmental variables. First, the use of binary

rasters is a huge simplification of reality, as there is not one cut off value in any climate variable

where suddenly a species starts or stops growing. A binary raster implies that any data falling

within the binary climate envelope are equally ideal. Our analysis did not take into account the

relative effect (or weight) each variable has on suitability for Oregon White Oak. Perhaps a

suitable MAT is much more important than a suitable MAP in determining where Oregon White

Oak will grow. However, since the final climate envelopes only included raster cells in which

every single variable was deemed suitable, areas with ideal MATs but unideal MAPs were left

out. The combination of not weighting variables, and classifying suitability with a binary system,

has the potential to eliminate many areas that might be well suited for a species, despite one

variable not being ideal. Using a different classification system to determine suitability and

weighting variables could improve the model.

This analysis should be used for many species in order to predict and quantify future

range shifts under various climate scenarios. Doing this analysis on endangered species is

especially important because it will allow us to identify where they will be most threatened in the
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future and where they can potentially be replanted. Analysis like this could also possibly be

useful for animal species in order to predict their range shifts, but it would be more difficult

because they are more mobile.

Works Cited

Conservation Plant Characteristics for Quercus Garryana USDA Plants Database. N.p., n.d.

Web. 5 Dec. 2016.

Gucker, Corey L. Quercus Garryana. U.S. Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky

Mountain Research Station, and Fire Sciences Laboratory, 2007. Web. 5 Dec. 2016.

Hamann. Historical & Projected Climate Data for North America.

https://sites.ualberta.ca/~ahamann/data/climatena.html. 7 Dec 2016.

Mitchell & Jones. An improved method of constructing a database of monthly climate

observations and associated high-resolution grids. International Journal of Climatology.

16 May 2005.

ommon Trees of the Pacific Northwest.

Oregon White Oak (Quercus Garryana). Digital Image. C

Oregon State University. Web. 5 December 2016.

Stein, William I. Silvics of North America, Volume 2: Hardwoods, Oregon White Oak. United

States Department of Agriculture and Forest Service. Web. 5 Dec. 2016.

USGS Digitial Representation of Tree Species Range Maps Geosciences and Environment

Change Science Center. https://gec.cr.usgs.gov/data/little/. Last Modified 21 Nov 2016.