Composite Generation &

Transmission System Reliability

Analysis:
Reliability Indices:
(System & Load point Indices)
Classified as
(i) Basic Values :
(a) Probability of failure
(b) Expected frequency of failure
(c) Expected number of voltage
violations
(d) Expected no. of load curtailments
(e) Expected load curtailed
(f) Expected Energy Not Supplied
(EENS)
(g) Expected duration of load
curtailment.
(ii) Maximum Values:
(a) Maximum load curtailed
(b) Max. energy curtailed
(c) Max. duration of load curtailment
(iii) Mean (or) Average values :
(a) Average load curtailed
(b) Average Energy Not
Supplied(AENS)
 (c) Average duration of load
curtailment
(iv) Bus isolation values :
(a) Expected no. of curtailment
(b) Expected load curtailed
(c) Expected Energy Not Supplied
(EENS)
(d) Expected duration of load
curtailment
The above indices are expressed based on single
load level & expressed on basis of one year known
as annualized values. Annualized indices calculated
at system peak load level are usually much higher
than the actual annual indices.
i) Basic Values:
(a) Probability of failure

=
(b) Frequency of failure

=
Where j is an outage condition

is the probability of outage j

 is probability of the load at bus k
exceeding the max load that can be supplied at
that bus k during an outage j

(c) Expected no. of voltage violations

=
Where j includes all contingencies which
can cause voltage violation at bus k
(d) Expected no. of load curtailments

=
Where j includes all contingencies resulting
in over loads by load curtailment at bus k
j includes all contingencies resulting in
isolation of bus k
(e) Expected load curtailed

Where = load curtailment at bus k

(f) Expected Energy Not Supplied (EENS)

EENS =
D= Duration

EENS =
(g) Expected duration of load curtailment

= hours

ii. Maximum Values:

(a) Max. load curtailed =

Max { , . }
(b) Max. energy curtailed

= Max { ,

. }
(c) Max. duration of load curtailment=

Max { , . }
iii. Mean (or) Average values:
(a) Average load curtailed

= , MW/curtailment

=
(b) Average Energy Not Supplied
AENS =

MWhrs/curtailment
(c) Average duration of load curtailment =

=
hrs/curtailment

iv. Bus isolation values :

(a) Expected no. of curtailment

=
(b) Expected load curtailed

( c) Expected Energy Not Supplied

=
(d) Expected duration of load curtailment

=
Conditional Probability Approach:

P(A |B1, B2) = P(A |B1) P(B1) + P(A |B2) P(B2)

Let pg(Qp) be the probability of generation
inadequacy.
pc(Qp) be the probability of transmission
inadequacy
for example:
pc(1) is probability of the transmission line-1
exceeding its capability.
 pc(2) is probability of the transmission line-2
exceeding its capability.
Qs = probability of the system failure
A1, U1 ---> Availability, Unavailability of line-1
A2, U2 ---> Availability, Unavailability of line-2
Using conditional approach,
Qs = Qs1 A1 + Qs1 U1 ------> (1)
= Qs(line-1 in) A1 + Qs(line-1 out) U1

Billinton notation;
(Qs,1 | line-1 in (or) out) =
(system failure | line-1 in,out)=
=(Probability of system failure | line-1 in) p(line-1
in)
+ (Probability of system failure | line-1 out)
p(line-1 out)
(Qs,1 | line-2 in (or) out) =
(Probability of Qs,1 | line-2 in) p(line-2 in)
+ (Probability of Qs,1 | line-2 out) p(line-2 out)
Qs,1 = Qs 1,2 p(L2 in) + Qs 1,2 p(L2 out) -----> (2)
 = (Qs 1,2) A2 + (Qs 1,2) U2
Qs 1,2 = pg + pc(1,2) pg pc(1,2) ----> (3)
Qs 1,2 = pg + pc(1) pg pc(1) -------> (4)
(Qs,1 | line-2 in, out) = Qs 1 2 A2 + Qs 1 2 U2 ------>
(5)
Qs 1 2 = pg + pc(2) pg pc(2) ------> (6)
Qs 1 2 = 1 ---------> (7)
Substituting (6) & (7) in (5),
Qs,1 = (pg + pc(2) pg pc(2)) A2 + U2 --------> (8)
Substituting eq. (3) & (4) in eq. (2),
Qs,1 = (pg + pc(1,2) pg pc(1,2)) A2 + (pg + pc(1)
pg pc(1)) U2 ; (9)
Substituting eq. (9) & (8) in eq.(1),
Qs = A1[(pg + pc(1,2) pg pc(1,2)) A2 + (pg + pc(1)
pg pc(1)) U2]
+ [(pg + pc(2) pg pc(2)) A2 + U2] U1
Qs = A1 A2 pg + pc(1,2) A2 A1 A2 A1 pg pc(1,2) +A1 pg
U2
+A1 pc(1) U2 A1 U2 pg pc(1) + pg A2 U1 +
pc(2) A2 U1
 pg pc(2) A2 U1 +U1 U2
Qs = A1 A2 pg + A1 A2 pc(1,2) A1 A2 pg pc(1,2) + A1
p g U2
+A1 pc(1) U2 A1 U2 pg pc(1) + pg A2 U1 + pc(2)
A2 U1
pg pc(2) A2 U1 +U1 U2
If A1 = A2 = A & U1 = U2 = U
pc(1) = pc(2)=pc (say ), then
Qs = A2 pg + A2 pc(1,2) A2 pg pc(1,2) + A U pg + A U
pc(1)
- A U pg pc(1) + A U pg + AU pc(2) A U pg
pc(2) + U2
= A2 { pg + pc(1,2) pg pc(1,2) } + 2A U{ pg +
pc pg pc} + U2

Generation & Transmission are considered that

they are connected in series as per reliability
structure.
The probability of the failure at bus k is
Qk =

Fk =
Where
Bj = an outage condition
pgj = probability of generating capacity outage
exceeding the reserve capacity
(or) equivalent to probability of generation
inadequacy when jth outage condition is considered
pij = probability of the load exceeding the line
capability in ith line capability due to jth outage
condition considered

Qk =

Fk =