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0 DISPERSION MODELLING
In EIA, Dispersion modelling is utilized to compute the ground level
concentrations (GLC) due to various point emission sources i.e. various stack
emissions.. A large number of phenomena have to be taken in to account such
as emissions of primary pollutants, atmospheric chemical transformations,
advection, turbulent diffusion and dry deposition. Both long term and short-
term models are used in the air quality studies.
In this chapter, MoEF approved Industrial Source Complex model (ISC-3) has
been utilized along with the Sodar data to assess ground level concentration.
The basis of the model is the straight-line steady state Gaussian Plume
equation (Gaussian Plume Model). Plume rise due to momentum and buoyancy
as a function of downwind distance is used. Emission sources are categorized
into four basic types namely point source, volume source, area sources and
open pit sources. For variation of wind speed with height, wind profile exponent
law is accepted 98-99.
5.1 Model Options The model options used in ISCST model for prediction of
short term (24 hr) incremental GLC of pollutants are as follows-
The plume rise is estimated by Briggs formula but the final rise is always
limited that of mixing layer.
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Adopting the above stated assumptions, the concentration C of gas or
aerosol of particles of size less than 20 microns at a point (X,Y,Z) (Fig 5.1)
from a continuous emitting source of effective stack height H is thus
given as per the simple Gaussian Plume Model by the equation:
Q y 2 z H 2 z H 2
C ( x, y , z ; H )
exp 2 exp exp
2u y z 2 y 2 z2
2 z2
Where x,y,z are the co-ordinates of any point in space with origin at the point
of release of emission;
H is the effective height of emission release i.e. effective stack height plus
plume rise.
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Figure 5.1: Co-ordinate System of Gaussian Plume Model
There are other equations in Gaussian plume model under different conditions.
Q y2 H 2
C ( x, y,0; H )
exp exp 2
u y z 2 y2 2 z
This equation is used for ground level concentration stack at height H
Q H 2
C ( x,0,0; H ) exp
2
u y z 2 z
This equation is used for ground level centre line concentration stack at height
H.
Q
C ( x,0,0;0)
u y z
This equation is used for ground level centre line ground point source.
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5.1.2 Input Data for GLC predictions Dispersion models are the primary
tools used in the air quality analysis. These models estimate the ambient
concentrations that will result from the proposed emissions in combination
with emissions from existing sources. The estimated total concentrations are
used to demonstrate compliance with applicable NAAQS.
A full impact analysis is required for any pollutant for which the
estimated ambient pollutant concentration of proposed source exceeds
the prescribed significant ambient impact levels. This analysis expands
the preliminary analysis and in that it considers from;
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5.2 INPUT DATA FOR VINDHYAN REGION
Pollutants and pollution sources considered for computational deals with the
three major pollutants monitored at the site i.e. Suspended Particulate matter
(SPM), Sulfur Dioxide (SO2) and Oxides of Nitrogen (NOx). These pollutants are
from identifiable and quantifiable sources and are emitted by all the industries
in this region such as cement plants and lime kilns.
Cement Plants: The emission in cement plants takes from many sources such
as Kiln, Cooler, Cement Mills, Coal Mills, & Crushing etc. The data on stack
emission and chimney characterization have been collected from industries.
The average emissions have been used for estimation of pollution load.
Particulate is the major pollutants from all cement plants and lime kiln stacks.
Other emission of taken importance is SO2 which is emitted from captive
power plants. The source input data of cement plants is presented in Table 5.1.
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Source Ht. of Stack Dia of Velocity Emission of SPM
Sr.No.
Stack (mtrs) Stack (m) (m/sec) (g/sec)
ACC
1
Cement
a) Kiln 1 100 4 9.7 15.2
b) Kiln 2 115 4 16.8 14.8
c) Cooler 1 60 3.5 18.2 8.9
d) Cooler 2 68 3.5 17.9 9.4
e) CPP 98 2.4 15.9 3.9
2 Birla Vikas
a) Kiln 1 64.7 3 14.8 9.26
Prism
3
Cements
a) Kiln 1 125 4.5 17.6 11.3
b) Coal Mill 45 2.2 14.9 3.1
Maiher
4
Cements
a) Kiln 1 80 4.2 14.9 20.2
b) Kiln 2 102 4.6 9.8 15.8
c) CPP 71 3.5 15.2 9.8
JP Rewa
5
Cements
a) Kiln 1 95 3.5 16.8 22.5
b) Kiln 2 96 4.5 11.8 19.7
c) Cooler 1 35 3.2 8.6 7.5
d) Cooler 2 42 4.2 10.5 12.1
JP Bela
6
Cements
a) Kiln 1 110 4.2 15.2 18.4
b) Cooler 45 4.2 12.8 9.8
c) Coal Mill
42 2.1 12.5 4.25
Dryer
Table 5.1 Stack and Emission Details of various Stacks
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5.2.1 Meteorological Data Various Micro-meteorological factors are
responsible for the transport of pollutants in atmosphere (100,101,102). Therefore,
knowledge of meteorological data is essential as far as dispersion modeling is
concerned. Wind speed, Wind Direction, Atmospheric Stability and Mixing
Height are the important input parameters for dispersion modeling. These are
called Primary input parameters. Ambient temperature, Humidity, Pressure etc
are the secondary input parameters as these control the dispersion of the
pollutants indirectly by attesting primary parameters.
The meteorological data has been generated at site and collected from IMD
also. The area experiences tropical climate with considerable temperature
variations during summer and winter. The temperature ranges between 8oC to
12 oC in winter, while it is 48 oC during the peak summer months. As per the
climate, we can classify year as follows:
The monthly averages of wind speed, temperatures, rain fall and relative
humidity is given in the Tables 5.2 to 5.5
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Table 5.2 Monthly maximum and minimum temperatures
Minimum
Month Maximum Temp. OC
Temp. OC
January 7.45 23.60
February 10.70 28.00
March 17.40 33.10
April 20.50 37.90
May 26.03 42.80
June 26.20 35.80
July 25.10 33.60
August 22.50 35.70
September 20.70 32.00
October 18.40 33.80
November 17.60 30.50
December 12.20 26.10
Table 5.3 Monthly rainfall data in the area
Month Rainfall in mm
January 34.80
February 21.50
March 13.70
April 10.10
May 11.10
June 126.00
July 356.20
August 320.70
September 175.50
October 45.20
November 11.60
December 5.10
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Month Relative Humidity
January 71.00
February 64.00
March 45.00
April 34.00
May 30.00
June 53.00
July 82.00
August 84.00
September 85.00
October 63.00
November 67.00
December 62.00
Table 5.4 Monthly relative humidity
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5.2.2 Determination of Stability Classes Stability of the atmospheric layers
is taken as the basic indication of the turbulence of the atmosphere and is the
most critical and often most difficult to determine meteorological parameter
involved in pollution dispersion modeling. The choice of stability class affects
each of the following parameters:
SODAR stability has been used in dispersion modeling because this method is
best suited to complete vertical dispersion 103-104. The data of stability class is
given in chapter4.
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Ventilation coefficient = Mixing Height x Wind Speed
The average wind speed and mixing height prevailing during different seasons
in Vindhyan region are furnished in Table 5.7 & 5.8 respectively.
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Season Day Time (8 am to 6 pm) Night Time (7 pm to 7 pm)
Based on the above mixing height and wind speeds, the Ventilation Coefficient
are for all the four seasons during day time and night time are computed and
furnished in Table 5.9.
Day Time
Night Time
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dispersion
Table 5.9 Ventilation coefficient during day and night time (m2/sec)
On overall, the Ventilation Coefficient (VC) are medium to higher during day
time in all the seasons ensuring good dispersion of pollutants. The monsoon
season is the best season among all seasons for vertical mixing of pollutants
followed by post monsoon season. Winter is the critical season for dispersion of
pollutants.
5.2.5 Prediction of Air Quality through ISCST3 Model ISCST3 model has
been run for calculating the Ground Level concentration (GLC), the hourly
meteorological data has been used and the winter and post monsoon season is
used to predict the likely maximum GLC.
The computed predicted ambient air quality levels with existing scenarios
during winter and Post monsoon season is furnished in Table 5.10 & 5.11
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Sr.No. Maximum Concentration in
g/m3
5.3.1.1 Data Presentation The following are the important parameters for
dispersion modeling.
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the onset of Pre-monsoon season from March to May. During pre-monsoon
season the mean maximum temperature (March) is observed to be 32.8C with
the mean minimum temperature of 24.4C. By the end of September with the
onset of Northeast monsoon (October), day temperatures increase slightly with
the mean maximum temperature of 30.5C. The monthly variations of
temperatures are presented in Table-5.11 and Figure-5.2
35
30
Temperature (oC)
25
20
15
10
0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Months
Max Min
5.3.1.1.2 Relative Humidity: The air is generally very humid in the region
especially during monsoon when the maximum relative humidity is observed to
be around 91% and 85% at 830 hour and 1730 hours respectively. In the pre-
monsoon period the max relative humidity is 83% and 78% at 830 and 1730
hours respectively. . The monthly mean variations in relative humidity are
presented in Table-5.12 and Figure-5.3
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100
90
It can be seen from the data that not much variations is observed in the
average atmospheric pressure levels. The pressure levels are found to be fairly
constant over the region. The monthly variations in the pressure levels are
presented in Table-5.12 and Figure-5.4
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1014
1012
1008
1006
1004
1002
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Months
0830 Hr 1730 Hr
174
900
800
Rainfall (mm) 700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
Jan Feb M ar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Months
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October 1010.1 1007.8 29.2 23.9 85 81 396.2
(Station: IMD)
January 9.8 E NW
February 11.3 E NW
March 11.9 NE NW
April 12.9 NE NW
May 14.8 NE NW
June 11.9 NE NW
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Mean Wind Predominant Wind Direction
Month
Speed (km/hr) Morning Evening
August 11.9 NW NW
September 10.5 NE NW
October 11.3 NE NW
November 10.2 NE NW
December 9.2 E N
5.3.3 Prediction of Air quality through ISCST3 Air dispersion modeling has
been carried out for thermal power plant which is near coastal area and the
main pollutants in Thermal Power Plants are SO2 and Oxides of Nitrogen (NOx),
so that model is used for these pollutants as well as particulate matter also.
The results of air quality modeling for winter season is furnished in Table 5.13
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Table: 5.13 modeling results
SO2 NOx
44.6 36.4 SE
24.0 18.0 SE
22.0 20.0 SE
13.0 11.0 W
28.1 63.3 N
16.0 35.0 SE
16.0 35.0 SE
10.0 22.5 W
From the air quality modeling result, it can be observed that maximum
concentrations of pollutants are occurring in winter season due to less
availability of mixing height and stable conditions prevailed in the atmosphere.
The same study (Air quality modeling) has been carried out for Hisar city to
find out the concentration and level of pollution load. From this study also it is
found that the maximum concentration has been found in winter season. The
wind speed in Hisar city is very low, and the actual mixing height data was not
available, data has been collected from Delhi and run for the model and try to
highlight the importance of SODAR data. The mathematical modeling results
have been given in Table 5.14. The Input parameters for the model is Qs=4.0
gm/Sec, Hs=37.0 m, Ts= 333 Vs= 7.0 m/sec and Ds= 4.0 m
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Table: 5.14 modeling results for Hisar City
STACK 3HR
SR.NO. g/m3
HEIGHT CONCENTRATION
1 37 M FIRST HIGHEST 23.46
SECOND HIGHEST 16.83
24 HR
CONCENTRATION
FIRST HIGHEST 4.32
SECOND HIGHEST 4.16
3HR
CONCENTRATION
2 47 M FIRST HIGHEST 18.42
SECOND HIGHEST 12.83
24 HR
CONCENTRATION
FIRST HIGHEST 3.65
SECOND HIGHEST 3.52
3HR
CONCENTRATION
3 57 M FIRST HIGHEST 14.2
SECOND HIGHEST 9.87
24 HR
CONCENTRATION
FIRST HIGHEST 3.17
SECOND HIGHEST 2.98
3HR
CONCENTRATION
4 67 M FIRST HIGHEST 10.75
SECOND HIGHEST 9.06
24 HR
CONCENTRATION
FIRST HIGHEST 2.84
SECOND HIGHEST 2.61
From all these findings it has been found that, the incremental concentration
depends upon stability class, and wind speed, winter is the worst season
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because in this season, temperature inversions dominate and the vertical
mixing of pollutants retards. Also fog remains for longer time and due to fog
fumigation condition takes place and in fumigation condition downward mixing
takes place which is the worst condition.
In this chapter, mathematical modeling has been carried out to assess the
incremental concentration due to the existing and proposed activities mainly in
the Vindhya and the coastal regions. The Vindhyan region hosts activities
primarily for cement production as the basic raw material is in abundance. As
an ancillary to cement plants, hundreds of stone crusher units contribute so
much to the particulate matter that a realistic assessment of airborne
pollutants is the most important parameter for mathematical modeling in this
region. While in coastal region, mathematical modeling has been carried out
for a thermal power plant and the assessment of sulphur-di-oxide and oxides of
nitrogen are important parameters for dispersion modeling. And efforts have
made to carry out the same studies in Hisar city, where only surface based
parameters have been utilized as the realistic Sodar data was not available for
mathematical modeling.
On the basis of these studies, it has been found that In Vindhya region, the
wind speed are low during post monsoon season it varies 1.9-5.6 m/sec, while
during winter season it varies between 0.8 to 3.5 m/sec, in monsoon season it
varies between 2.4 to 6.4 m/sec while in summer season the wind speed varies
between 2.4 to 4.8 m/sec, similarly the wind speed are lower in Hisar City, so
maximum time vertical dispersion of pollutants will take place, due to vertical
dispersion of pollutants the near by area will be affected. On the other hand in
coastal region the wind speed at higher side so that horizontal dispersion of
pollutants will take place and the area will be affected far from the source.
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Based on the work presented in the thesis, the next Chapter discusses the
outcome of the thesis in the present context and offers certain
recommendations to carry out this type of work at many more sites in India.
This will strengthen or support the present work and at the same time, it will
establish soda rasa useful technique for determining real time mixing height/
stability class data.
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