Friday, July 30, 2010

KBC Technicals Commonwealth & Eurchf

From KBC Market Research Desk - More research on www.kbc.be/dealingroom

SUMMER BREAK: NEXT REPORT SHOULD BE ON AUG 24

AUD:(.8986) Above channel top off year high (see graph)

FOREX AUD=,22 (0.8990, 0.8994, 0.8982, 0.8984, -0.0004)

0.910
HOURLY CHARTS .9069
0.905
0.900
0.895
0.890
.8871 .8906
.8860 0.885
0.880
0.875
0.870
0.865
.8633 0.860
0.855
0.850
0.845
0.840
0.835

.8315 0.830
0.825
0.820
0.815
0.810
.8083 0.805
0.800
4 14 21 28 5 12 19 26
2010 July

Strong rebound off .8633 puts the pair above the channel top off year high (see graph) and currently toying back
with the daily Downtrendline off 2009 high (.8979 today).
Support at .8964/ .8957 (break-up hourly/ broken 200 Day Moving Average↓), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at .8906/ .8895 (current week low + see graph+ modified daily Alpha Beta trend bottom / reac-
tion lows hourly), ahead of .8882 (daily Medium Term Moving Average↑): tough on 1st attempts.
Resistance area at .9044/ .9053 (reaction high hourly/ daily envelope top), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at .9069/ .9076 (current week high/ 76.4% year high to .8066 + modified weekly Standard
Error Band top), ahead of .9090 (76.4% 2009 high to .8066) and .9117/ .9130 (modified daily Alpha Beta trend
top/ daily Bollinger top): tough on 1st attempts.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE

.8964/ .57 (see above) .9044/ .9053 (see above/ daily envelope top)
.8906/ .8895 (current week low + see above/ reaction .9069/ .9076 (current week high/ 76.4% year high to
lows hourly + see above) .8066 + see above)
.8882/ .8855 (daily MT MA↑/ break-up hourly) .9090/ .9130 (see above/ daily Bollinger top)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research
 Friday, July 30, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Commonwealth FX

CAD: (1.0335)

FOREX CAD=,22 (1.0330, 1.0339, 1.0324, 1.0334, +0.0007)

1.0680
1.0678

1.065

1.060

1.055

1.050

1.045

1.040

1.035

1.030

1.0276 1.025
1.0256

1.020

1.015

1.0138
1.010

4 14 21 28 5 12 19 26
2010 July

Drop from 1.0678 puts the pair below the redrawn daily Uptrendline off year low (1.0404 today) and tested
1.0276 (see graph).
1st Support area at 1.0299/ .0290 (reaction low hourly + daily envelope bottom/ break-up hourly), with next
levels at 1.0261/ .0256 (medium term break-up daily/ current week low + modified daily Alpha Beta trend bot-
tom), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 1.0225/ .0213 (daily Bollinger bottom/ weekly envelope bottom): tough on 1st attempts.

1st Resistance area at 1.0396/ .0404 (current week high/ see above + daily envelope top + daily Long Term
Moving Average→) and 1.0413/ .0419 (200 Day Moving Average↓ + daily Bollinger midline/ modified daily Al-
pha Beta trend top), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 1.0427/ .0434 (reaction highs hourly), ahead of 1.0466 (idem) and 1.0503/ .0512
(breakdown hourly/ modified daily Standard Error band top): tough on 1st attempts.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE
1.0299/ .0290 (daily envelope bottom + see above/ 1.0396/ .0404 (current week high/ daily envelope top + see
break-up hourly) above)
1.0261/ .0256 (see above/ current week low + see 1.0413/ .0419 (daily Bollinger midline + see above/ see
above) above)
1.0225/ .0213 (daily Bollinger bottom/ weekly enve-
1.0427/ .0434 (reaction highs hourly)
lope bottom)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 2
 Friday, July 30, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Commonwealth FX

GBP: (1.5623) New recovery high on move back above Flag off year low (see graph)
FOREX GBP=,22 (1.5621, 1.5629, 1.5614, 1.5622, +0.0001)
1.5663 1.570
1.565
1.560
1.555
1.550
1.5473
1.545
1.540
1.535
1.530
1.525
1.5230 1.520
1.515
1.5125 1.510
1.505
1.500
1.495
1.4949
1.490
1.485
1.480
1.475
1.470
1.4688 1.465
1.460
1.455
1.450
1.445
1.440
1.435
1.4346 1.430
1.425
4 14 21 28 5 12 19 26
2010 July

New recovery high on move back above the Flag off year low (see graph): Support at 1.5599 (today’s low?),
with next levels at 1.5579/ 5569 (daily Short Term Moving Average↑ + reaction low hourly/ idem + daily enve-
lope bottom), with next levels at 1.5542 (broken 200 Day Moving Average↓) and 1.5524/ .5506 (neckline daily
Double Bottom/ reaction low hourly + modified daily Alpha Beta trend bottom), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 1.5441/ .5434 (reaction lows hourly): tough on 1st attempts.

Resistance area at 1.5663 (current new recovery high off year low), ahead of 1.5680/ .5682 (daily channel top off
June low + potential of Flag break: see chart/ daily Bollinger top) and 1.5691 (potential of daily Flag break off
year low), where pause favored.
If wrong, next levels at 1.5704 (daily envelope top), ahead of 1.5729 (modified daily Standard Error band top)
and 1.5763 (daily Alpha Beta trend top): tough on 1st attempts.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE

1.5599 (see above) 1.5663 (see above)

1.5579/ .5569 (daily ST MA↑ + see above/ daily

1.5680/ .5682 (see above/ daily Bollinger top)
envelope bottom + see above)

1.5524/ .5506 (see above/ reaction low hourly +

1.5691/ .5704 (see above/ daily envelope top)
see above)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 3
 Friday, July 30, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Commonwealth FX

EUR/CHF: (1.3549) New recovery high has met 2nd target off 1.3434 (see graph) at 1.3795

FOREX EURCHF=EBS (1.3532, 1.3559, 1.3530, 1.3545, +0.0010)

1.420
1.415
1.410
1.4041 1.405
1.400
1.395
1.390
1.385
1.3819
1.380
1.375
1.3735 1.3677 1.370
1.365
1.360
1.355
1.350
1.3434
1.345
1.340
1.335
1.330
1.325
1.320
1.315
1.310
1.3073 1.305
1.300
2 7 14 21 28 5 12 19 26
2010 July

Rebound off low failed to sustain back in long term daily channel off 2007 high (broken bottom at
1.3729 today) and has met 2nd target off 1.3434 (see graph) at 1.3795.

Resistance area at 1.3649/ .3656 (breakdown hourly/ daily Short Term Moving Average↓), where pause fa-
vored.
If wrong, next levels at 1.3729 (daily envelope top + see above), ahead of 1.3755/ .3762 (reaction highs
hourly) and 1.3772/ .3780 (daily Bollinger top/ breakdown hourly): tough on 1st attempts.

Support area at 1.3517/ .3515 (broken daily Long Term Moving Average↓/ today’s low?), where pause fa-
vored.
If wrong, next levels at 1.3495 (daily Bollinger midline), ahead of 1.3476 (modified daily Alpha Beta trend bot-
tom) and 1.3446 (50% 1.3073 to 1.3819): tough on 1st attempts.

SUPPORT RESISTANCE

1.3517/ .3515 (see above/ today’s low?) 1.3649/ .3656 (see above/ daily ST MA↓)

1.3495 (daily Bollinger midline) 1.3729 (see above + daily envelope top)

1.3476/ .3446 (see above/ 50% 1.3073 to 1.3819) 1.3762/ .3772 (see above/ daily Bollinger top)

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 4
 Friday, July 30, 2010

KBC Technical Analysis Commonwealth FX

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This non-exhaustive information is based on short-term forecasts for expected developments on the financial markets. KBC Bank cannot guarantee that these forecasts will materialize and cannot be
held liable in any way for direct or consequential loss arising from any use of this document or its content. The document is not intended as personalized investment advice and does not constitute a
recommendation to buy, sell or hold investments described herein. Although information has been obtained from and is based upon sources KBC believes to be reliable, KBC does not guarantee the
accuracy of this information, which may be incomplete or condensed. All opinions and estimates constitute a KBC judgment as of the data of the report and are subject to change without notice.

KBC Bank N.V. - Treasury and Capital Markets Front Office, Market Research 5