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CONTENTS
TRADING 13
Any results obtained by the use of this guide and associated trial
software are the absolute responsibility of the user. The Author and
its associates cannot be held responsible for any losses subsequent
to its use. Only engage in Sports Trading and Betting with money
that you can afford to lose.
The Author and its associates do not make profit guarantees of any
kind as this does depend on the user learning the essential skills
that are presented within these pages and attached videos.
Guarantee
WELCOME
Hello and welcome. Thank you for purchasing "How to make Big
Profits from Trading Tennis Matches on Betfair".
With the advent of the Betting Exchanges, you now have the
opportunity of betting online on the outcome of each Set, or Match.
The difficulty of course is just how on earth do you choose the
winner. If you are a regular gambler, then you will no doubt have a
"system", and may well study the past performance of players, to
arrive at the best chance you can at guessing who will win and
indeed who to place your bet on to win.
Backing any player to win is gambling. Even when the odds are low
and everyone in the "Tennis World" is shouting out loud that this
"Favourite Player" just can't lose the match, something happens;
maybe the player has an injury earlier that day, or is just plain
exhausted after a long tournament. For whatever reason the result
is never known, or a certainty.
www.betdaq.com
www.betfair.com
www.wbx.com
So, for the purposes of this tutorial, we will use Betfair throughout.
The familiar Betting Office will of course happily take your bet and if
you are "lucky" and your favourite tennis player wins the game,
then you will be very well off. However, if not as most of us have
already learned you lose your entire stake money.
Traditional Bookmaker
Not any more thank you, there is a better way! Enter the Betting
Exchanges.
We need to cast our minds back to our childhood days when quite
probably you "bet a friend" on something happening or not! To
ensure fair play you may well have appointed a third person to hold
your stake money, so as to ensure that the winner takes all.
The Betting Exchanges are the modern day equivalent of just that.
They are internet websites where you can place your bet with the
exchange that looks after your stake money until after the event
closes, and then pays out to the winner.
How to make big Profits Trading Tennis Matches on Betfair 6
You may think it would be very easy to pick a losing player. Who
needs to learn trading when it will be pretty simple to pick out a
loser?
Well lots of people try this, but it is all about risk; try getting a lay
bet on with the Betting Exchange and you will see that odds on offer
can be quite high. So for example, if you lay a bet to lose at 20/1
and it wins you have to pay up twenty times your stake. Pretty soon
you could lose your shirt. The risk is just too high for most people to
succeed in laying.
How to make big Profits Trading Tennis Matches on Betfair 7
If you are new to Betfair dont worry it is a very simple, safe, and
secure, process that really is quick to get through and start trading
within minutes.
Bonus earning Once you have joined Betfair you can of course
start referring your friends and family to Betfair, it could earn you a
few extra each year for absolutely nothing!
Once you have entered my refer and earn code and clicked
submit, your Account will be up and running in moments. Betfair
will also pay me 20 for introducing you to Betfair, so I want to give
you a special bonus for doing this
Betfair is the most used and largest betting exchange in the world
and allows the Trader to bet or trade against one another.
Below you will see a screen shot of the home page of Betfair.
This is what you will see when you first load Betfair. I imagine now
you have joined (see page 7) and added funds to your account, so
the first thing to do now would be to enter your user name and
password.
Although you can trade on other sports as you can see on the
home page, for the purpose of this book, we will concentrate on
tennis.
First click on Sports, then scroll down the left had side until you get
to Tennis and click your mouse.
You will then see displayed a list of all tennis matches. Click on the
Davis Cup 2007. From the information we got from the Betfair TV
screen, we find that Sweden is playing against the USA, so select
Sweden v USA and click on the players. Next click on the Match
Odds see screen below:-
Many of you I know will understand the principles of Back and Lay
and be familiar with the above screen, but for those of you
completely new to this below is a brief explanation of the above
screen shot.
The two main columns for Back and Lay as you can see are blue
and pink. These are the two columns you should focus on for the
time being.
As you can see from the screen shot below, the favourite in this
game is James Blake.
The back odds in the blue square are 1.57 so if you were to back
James Blake for 10 and the player wins, you would get 10 times
1.57 = 15.70 minus your 10 stake leaving you with a profit of
5.70.
The lay odds in the pink square are showing 1.59 a little more than
the back square. Should you decide that James Blake will not win
the match, you would click on this column and for an example place
10 for the player to lose, then should James Blake go on to win,
you would lose 10 x 1.59 = 15.90 minus your stake of 10
leaving you with a 5.90 loss. This is known as your liability. Should
the player lose the match, you would get your stake of 10 back
plus 10 making you a profit of 10. For a 20 stake and the player
loses, you would get your stake money back plus 20 and so on.
If you look at the above screen shot, you will see under the back
column there is a figure of 284 with odds of 1.57 and 39 to lay at
odds of 1.59. The money shown here is known as unmatched
money and is sitting there waiting to be matched. The amount of
money in these columns refers to the liquidity in a typical tennis
match.
How to make big Profits Trading Tennis Matches on Betfair 12
TRADING
What if you could make a bet like this? Well, yes you can. We can
take a look at the price offered for a player called "James Blake"
lets say in traditional terms and for simplicity here, you can get a
bet placed at 10/1 then you can make ten times your money if he
wins. Because James is seen as a very probable winner, lots of
betting money comes in for this player and that forces the odds on
offer lower. Lets say it falls to 2/1 At this point you could be feeling
very lucky to have been able to get your bet on at 10/1?
Decimal Odds always include your stake as part of your total return.
If you place a bet of 10 at Decimal Odds of 4.0 and win, then your
total return (including your stake) is 40. In the UK this would
normally be quoted as 3/1, returning to you winnings of 30 plus
your original stake of 10
Example...
If James Blake loses the match you lose your bet to win 100 but
you win your bet to lose 100 so you do not lose anything!
This is the exciting part; you have been able to create a WIN! WIN!
SITUATION HERE
Many Betfair users work quite happily with the normal Internet
Browser interface. It is true that it works reliably, and it is quite
simple to understand. If I am going to trade I simply enter a back
at one price, and then wait until the price shortens (goes down) and
enter the lay bet. Have a look at an example
We place here a Back Bet to win @ 1.57 Odds and a Lay Bet to Lose
@ 1.5 and providing we get both bets matched we have a
guaranteed profit of 45 if Johansson wins the match or 47.50 if
Blake wins the match. So, whoever wins, we win!
Note under the players names list that the profit is shown including
deduction of the Betfair Commission should you win.
Welcome to Fairbot
You can set the software to let you do 1 CLICK TRADING using your
preset staking plans
Note the settings at the top of the page. We have decided to set the
stakes for Back and Lay Bets @ 2 and with just those set, you can
place single bets just as you would do in the Browser Version. The
big difference when Fairbot is used in this mode is you only click the
blue price box and the bet is placed. When learning to use Fairbot,
make certain that the Confirm is checked so that you will see a pop
up window with your proposed bet shown and you have to submit
that bet if you wish. Once you are happy with using the software, of
course turn that protection off, and you have 1 click betting
available to you.
To trade, check the Trading Button, and then all you need to do is
click on the blue price button and Fairbot places the entire trade for
you. Your Back bet gets placed and matched first, and then Fairbot
will place the Lay for you at a price determined by the Offset
setting. In this case we have that set to 2 ticks. This means that the
lay will be placed at 2 of Betfair Odds Prices lower than the Back
Bet. (See the help Screen in Betfair for a list of these.)
The lay will be placed in the queue on the Betfair server until you
get filled (matched) once you get matched that trade is completed.
You will win if the player wins the match, or break even and lose
nothing if he/she loses.
Now here is the good bit! Check the Smart Bets box. Then when
you do a trade, the lay stake is adjusted slightly for you according
to current prices and automatically places a trade that provides you
with profits no matter what the outcome of the match!
As you will see later on in this section, you need to study the graph
and be able to place the bet as fast as possible once you identify a
good situation to trade. For now then I want you to run 2 instances
of Fairbot on your Computer. If you have 2 computers all the better,
but you can work very well if your computer is fairly fast and can
switch between the two running copies of Fairbot quickly.
Drag out the graph window to full screen on 1 of the running copies
of Fairbot. The plan here is to use 1 running copy of Fairbot to place
bets and the other simply to view full screen graphs.
How to make big Profits Trading Tennis Matches on Betfair 18
It is rather difficult to illustrate within the book, but the above graph
should be stretched out full screen but still leaving the task bar
displayed at the foot of your screen to facilitate fast switching
between the two running copies of Fairbot.
Now you are setup to study the graphs and to place a trade by
switching to the second copy of Fairbot. I would like to explain the
meaning of the graphing lines. We will go into more specific details
later on but for now try clicking the 4 options at the foot of the
screen to learn exactly what each item means.
The grid is of course the black table lines across the graph, simply
used as reference points to price/time.
Show Points is plotted at each time refresh interval set at the main
Fairbot screen. It is important to set this at 3 seconds for reading
the graphs. (Explained later) The graph above shows straight red
lines which means there has been no price movements during that
time space.
The upper and lower red lines are the standard Deviation Bollinger
Bands and the green line is the moving average.
Later on we will return to this and study it in more detail. For now
please familiarise yourself with the meanings of each line.
How to make big Profits Trading Tennis Matches on Betfair 19
Make certain that Smart Bets is checked and this is when Fairbot
really gets clever. Whilst you can get various calculators over the
internet to do the job, by the time you punch in the odds its too
late because the live odds on offer in Betfair will likely have
changed! Let the software do it all for you.
Notice that a different stake has been entered for the Lay than the
bet. This is calculated by Fairbot in real time showing live odds. The
exciting result of the next match is shown below
Notice that underneath every single runner the profit is 29.41. Yes
its true, it does not matter which player wins the match, you are in
a WIN WIN SITUATION. You are guaranteed to earn 29+ from this
race.
Now that you are beginning to see just how exciting trading can be,
when you guarantee yourself a winner lets read more
When all entries are shown in GREEN then it has become known as
greening up Fairbot provides a button against each runner so that
you can Green Up after you have just 1 bet placed. This is often
easier to work with; you work on the graph for just 1 player until
you achieve a FREE BET and then convert it just before the race to
an All Green Card by simply clicking on the Fairbots Greening up
button.
Simply click the Greening up Button next to the player with the
money and it automatically calculates the opposite bet and stake
necessary to give you a win win situation.
How to make big Profits Trading Tennis Matches on Betfair 21
There are numerous Blogs, Articles, and Web discussions out there,
so it does show us that it is a serious problem for many of us. If you
lose, do you try and get your losses back by stopping trading and
place a bet on a player that seems a certainty.
Before the start, you have that hunch, or a funny feeling about
this match, you can easily convince yourself that this will be the
solution to your problem. You lost the last match because you had
to answer the door, and missed the second part of the trade. Or the
phone rang, and it was your wife calling from work and wanted to
chat
Stuff like this happens to all of us. The problem is that once you set
out on the road to getting your money back from that mistake,
well the adrenaline kicks in and your nerves go into fright mode in
a way you are trying to defend yourself from the situation that you
do not like to be in.
Not easily because lets face it, us human beings are driven by our
emotions. Its what makes the world what it is, and really we cant
change that. Still there are a few things that we can do to keep
emotional stresses to the minimum
Try and get a little better organised. Decide that you are going to
set aside 3 hours each evening or each afternoon for Trading or if
you like going to work. Even if like me you have given up going to
work in the conventional sense, it helps if you arrange your time in
How to make big Profits Trading Tennis Matches on Betfair 22
this way. Friends and family have to know that during that time,
you are at work. You cannot be disturbed. Turn off any telephones
and put a Do Not Disturb notice on your door if you have to.
Check your computer and make sure you are not running Instant
message programs like Yahoo Messenger, Windows Live, or Skype
and so on. Little popup messages are a real killer, and you will not
concentrate on your trades.
TAKE BREAKS
Once you have secured a fully matched trade, then you can take a
little break.
In this section you will learn the core of my system. If you are
already trading using the Betting Exchanges then you may well only
need to study this section. That said, readers are from all walks of
life, and from almost every corner of the globe. Individual
experiences will of course vary widely, so even though you may be
an experienced trader, you may well learn one or two important tips
by scanning the rest of this book.
If you are trading using the normal browser interface then you do
not have an easily visible method to see the weight of money. If
you happen to be fast with mental arithmetic then of course you can
total the prices shown, as the example below.
How to make big Profits Trading Tennis Matches on Betfair 23
That is to say there is more money on the back side so the price will
drift. At least that is the theory, and often that is an excellent guide.
Most markets today are highly volatile and it is fraught with danger
to read this alone.
If you were to use WOM from these figures alone you may well lose
your money! Why; because these figures are for a Football match
several hours before play, and it is for Match Odds. If we look at the
current Betfair graph you should see the problem
How to make big Profits Trading Tennis Matches on Betfair 24
The right hand half of the graph shows clearly that it is heading in a
horizontal line. Of course there are small spikes, but overall we can
see here a clear trend of no movement so youre betting that it
will drift cannot really be substantiated.
Later in the day it could go up or down, and you could find yourself
with an unmatched losing trade.
The red line graph is better than nothing, but not by much. It
represents only a line plotted by matched prices over time. It does
not give detailed information. No other marketplace traders would
be able to succeed in business with only this information, yet
thousands of Betfair traders commit financial suicide everyday in
the hopes that they will learn to get it right soon.
What you really need is to take a few lessons out of the Financial
Traders book! I have set out below a sample graph that is typical of
the sort of graph used by financial Traders throughout the World.
How to make big Profits Trading Tennis Matches on Betfair 25
Well quite simply, yes you can, and by the end of this section you
will understand it too. We do not need quite this sophistication or
complexity.
If you would like to read more about these than the scope of this
book covers, then you will find interesting articles at the following
websites
www.johnbollinger.com
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/technical/102201.asp
If you continue to rely on WOM then you are only looking at the last
three matched prices, and with the kind of market volatility being
witnessed today, you need something a little better.
How to make big Profits Trading Tennis Matches on Betfair 26
graph above. The green line is the Moving Average matched price
and the thin red lines are the Bollinger Bands which are always
above and below the moving average line. The thick red line
represents the points of matched prices.
Note in the videos, that when the matched price crosses over one of
the Bollinger Band lines that it is very likely that the price will
reverse. Obviously nothing can actually predict the future, but
because Bollinger Bands measure the volatility in the past, it can
quite accurately chart a few steps ahead of time.
Armed with the sheer power of these graphs, you will very quickly
learn to spot reversals in the trend, and quickly place trades which
get matched pretty well every time.
Problem trades.
Quite clearly the price for this player is drifting quickly from a
matched price of 3.15 heading up to 3.35 (indicated by the red
dots) before reversing downwards. These step ladder graphs are
exactly what you need to look for, notice that the green line
(moving Average) is roughly at an angle of 45 degrees.
Step ladder patterns only normally last for a few seconds, so you
need to be ready to trade once you are certain that the price is
going in the direction you are looking for
TRADING REMINDER
When you start out trading it is much safer to look for down trends
and Back then Lay because if you are unable to get the opposite
match filled then you have much less liability than if you were to lay
first.
How to make big Profits Trading Tennis Matches on Betfair 29
IN CONCLUSION
Ok, now you have the main tools to earn a regular income from
Betfair using Bollinger Band Graphing techniques to forecast
extremely accurately the future trend of prices in the market of
your choice. Whether it is Tennis, Horse Racing, Football, and many
more markets, the techniques work exactly the same for trading
these events. (That said, I am publishing specialised versions for
each sport in due course). In order to receive these visit
http://www.learningwizard.co.uk and sign up to my mailing list.
This depends upon your betting Bank, and learning how to identify
trends using the graphing techniques to good effect. Some of us will
be better than others, being fast at taking decisions is a distinct
advantage, but if you are not able to do that you can still earn good
money from a more cautious approach.
Betting Plans
If you can afford a 100 betting bank then only place 10 bets. Do
not do a LAY first as your liability will be much higher. Placing back
then lay bets do not have such a high liability. Work on no more
than 10% of your betting Bank. Never trade or bet with money that
is earmarked for your mortgage! You will be certain to lose, simply
because the personal stakes are so high! If you feel good about
your trading, and can concentrate then you will profit regularly.
The betting exchanges do not provide a get rich quick vehicle, but
if you read and re-read this book and watch all the videos until
everything becomes second nature, then you can be certain that
you can earn as much as you need.
Kind Regards
Rick Holland
enquiries@learningwizard.co.uk
http://www.learningwizard.co.uk