Foreign Policy – a supply of examples

Examples of tools working (and not working)

1. Diplomatic Engagement
Working: Chile (Pinochet’s voluntary resignation), Taiwan, S Korea (both military regimes were
engaged with the West and eventually stepped down to form the more vibrant democracies in
Asia).

Not Working: Philippines (Entrenched Marcos, requiring violent revolution), Indonesia (Similar
entrenchment of Suharto, requiring violence to break it down), Iran (engaging the unpopular Shah
led to his downfall at the hands of the populist Khomeini).

Borderline: Russia & E Europe. The objective of engagement here was to bring in Western ideas
and so it brought about the collapse of the old regime. It is a success if engagement was meant
to knife the people being engaged, and a failure if the objective was a painless smooth transition.

Common/ distinguishing features between success/ failure:

a. Personality of dictators: Those obsessed with power are less likely to step down. Might
talk to some, who appear to be interested in long term welfare of country (Castro,
Musharaf) but not to others like Hussein and Qadafi.
b. Popularity of regimes. Where dictators are fundamentally unpopular, supporting them
leads to the West losing credibility with the locals, who blame them for sustaining the
dictators. This could lead to a backlash when the revolution happens (the common trait of
most of the failures.)
c. Nature of assistance: Most of these were engaged for strategic purposes during the cold
war. As this is no longer relevant, the only grounds for assisting them now would be to
prevent HR abuses; develop economies.
d. Ethical dimension: Ethical to engage them if it is to prevent HR abuses. Or ethical to
isolate to send a message that we will have nothing to do with the abuses. Have to be
prepared for both possibilities.

Current applications: Iran; Chechnya; Zimbabwe; Austria.

2. Diplomatic Isolation
Worked: S. Africa, Rhodesia. Led to downfall of minority rule in both places.

Not worked: Cuba, Myanmar, Iraq, Iran, Vietnam and N. Korea

Distinguishing features:
a. Depends on control regimes have over infiltration of ideas and how successful they are
at blaming outside powers. If the opposition parties/ press have a foothold, it is more
likely that blame will go to the regime, making them more unstable. In most cases though,
this is controlled by the regime who are entrenched and protected from the infiltration of
hostile ideas.
b. If the objective is containment rather than reform, then more of the failures can be seen
as success. Containment of communism succeeded in Cuba, Vietnam and N Korea.
Militant Islam was contained by isolating Iran and Libya.
c. Ethical Dimension. Again, the test in post cold-war world should be intervention for HR
purposes. Which is better for people? The better way can be argued to be the ethical
one.

Ethical Foreign Policy examples list 1 of 3

3. Trade Sanctions
Worked: S. Africa, Rhodesia. Led to dowfall of minority rule in both places.

Not worked: Cuba, Myanmar, Iraq, Iran, Vietnam and N. Korea

Why they’re good:

a. Blocks funding and purchase of arms.
b. Cripples industry, stops military proliferation.
c. Public message encourages allies to stop dealing with rogue state.

Why they’re bad:

If they’re ineffective: Leaky borders. Noncompliance by neighbours.
Even if they work:
a. Impoverish the populace. Prevents creation of middle class. Creates anti-West sentiment.
b. Promotes illegal trades (e.g. heroin in Burma).

4. Industrialisation
Worked:
South Korea, Taiwan. Economic development led to democracy.
Post-WW2 Japan & Germany. Economic development prevented resurrection of expansionist
ultra-right nationalist movements.

Not worked: Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore. Nominally democratic states still maintain social
control despite high GDP, etc.

5. [Attempted?] Funding of Dissidents

Worked: Nicaragua, Panama, Chile.

Not worked: Iraq, Cuba

Discussion:
a. In Nicaragua and Panama, the governments were socialist. The West sponsored
assassinations and social upheaval in an attempt to topple the pro-Communist regimes.
Unfortunately the replacements were autocrats. In the case of the socialist Allende
government in Chile, his replacement Pinochet is one of the great embarrassments of the
Thatcher regime.
b. In Iraq and Cuba, the funding failed as it allowed (1) dissidents to be painted as foreign
stooges, (2) Iraq/Cuba to justify anti-Western policies, (3) the perpetuation of the West’s
image as colonialist meddlers with national sovereignty, (4) the money didn’t always get
there as the opposition groups were splintered. In Iraq, the Kurdish resistance had so
many factions that some groups would assassinate the leaders of rivals that received US
money.

Ethical Foreign Policy examples list 2 of 3

6. Arms Embargoes
q.v. economic sanctions and trade embargoes.

7. Military intervention
Worked:
Kuwait (but vested interest of oil and low body count)
East Timor (mainly Gurkhas, which arrived too late to stop massacres)
Kosovo (mainly air strikes)
no-fly zone over Kurdistan (mainly air power)

Not worked:
Vietnam (entrenched the Communists who are still there today, loss of life, public outcry
especially with TV reporting)
Afghanistan (Soviets failed to defeat guerrillas in countryside, indirectly led to rise of Taleban)
Korea (entrenched Kim Il Sung)
Somalia (fear of casualties, TV reporting)
Haiti (no long-term change)
Rwanda (couldn’t contain situation)

Ethical Foreign Policy examples list 3 of 3