GER1000 QUANTITATIVE REASONING 2016/17 Semester 1

TUTORIAL 3

Question 1 (Chapter 3)

Based on the letters submitted to the Forum of The Straits Times in 2006,
comment on the query made by Ms Tan with the following highted quotes and
also the reply given by the Secretary of Public Transport Council Mr Looi Teik
Soon. For additional information please refer to PTC report.
 (a) From Ms Tans letter, According to the PTCs annual report figures, the daily bus
ridership hovers around 2.8 million. As such, I am curious to know how representative is
this survey, which seeks to track the performance of bus services from the commuters
viewpoint. How accurately do 1,661 commuters reflect the sentiments of a daily
ridership of over 2.8 million? This is a mere 0.06 per cent of the daily ridership. Is the
size of a sample that is only 0.06 per cent of the daily ridership too small or does it really
matter?

(b) Ms Tan made a suggestion in her letter to increase the survey sampling size without
compromising the accuracy of data. Commuters who wish to participate can pick up
survey forms at bus stops and interchanges or they can do it online at their own time.
Comment.

(c) In his reply, Mr Looi said, The public Transport Council (PTC) had commissioned the
Singapore Management University to carry out the survey. Unlike ad-hoc or voluntary
feedback, the survey was carefully designed and conducted using established survey
methodology. Care was taken to ensure that the sample profile was representative of
the population. Fieldwork quality control and statistical accuracy of the survey were
also checked. From the information given in PTC report, do you think the sample
selected was representative of the population? What is the target population of this
study? Most likely what is the national profile that the reply refers to? Most likely what
type of sampling scheme is being employed?

Question 2 (Chapter 4)

To join a certain tennis club, an applicant has to pay a registration fee of $100 and go through a
selection test. To be accepted to the club, the applicant has to play two club members A and B in
three games, and must win against both A and B in two successive games in order to be accepted.
The applicant can choose one of the two sequences: playing A-B-A or B-A-B.
Furthermore, if the applicant wins all three games, he (or she) will get a full refund of the
registration fee. If he wins only two games or one game out of the three games, he will get 50%
and 25% refund respectively. Otherwise, there will be no refund.

(*) Base on past records, B is a stronger player than A. On average, B beats 4 out of 5 players,
while A beats 2 out of 5 players.
(a) On average, how much will the tennis club make from each applicant who choose to play
the sequence A-B-A?

(b) If anyone wish to join the club, will he or she has a higher chance to be accepted to the
club by choosing one sequence over the other? Why?

(c) If you wish to join the club, and you have not played A or B before, is it appropriate for
you to use the information given in (*) to compute the probability of being accepted? If
not, how would you compute the probability?