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South-West Mosul Rapid Market Assessment

June 2017

HIGHLIGHTS
o The main commodities traded in this market are cereal, pulses, oil, meat, milk and non-food items
such as kerosene, cooking gas, benzene and soap;

o Overall, the markets have a large commodity diversity offering a broad range of choices for consumers.
However, the amount of stock is still not enough to cover an increase of demand;

o Wheat flour, chickpeas, meat and dairy products are less expensive in West Mosul when compared
with Erbil while soap is four times more expensive in West Mosul;

o Prices are returning slowly to normal confirming a trend that has been seen before in other liberated
areas.

1. INTRODUCTION
In Iraq, WFP provides life-saving assistance to refugees affected by the Syrian crisis and to internally
displaced persons (IDPs).
The ongoing fighting between Iraqi Security Forces (ISF) and Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) has
largely contributed to the current humanitarian crisis in Mosul. The ongoing conflict continues affecting
negatively the market functioning and food security situation of the population in a large part of West
Mosul.
As part of the response to the ongoing humanitarian crisis, in April 20171, WFP provided Family Food
Rations to 1.15 million people in all 18 governorates of Iraq, and assisted 340,000 people with CBTs in
four governorates. Due to the challenging funding environment earlier in 2017, all monthly assistance is
currently reduced. Only those affected by the current fighting in Mosul are receiving full WFP assistance.

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WFP Iraq Situation Report #48 - 22 May 2017

June 2017 WFP Erbil/Iraq 1

 Humanitarian needs in the country are continuing to increase as people fleeing Mosul city require
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immediate food assistance.

However, WFP and its partners are exploring the possibility of assisting affected people in West Mosul
through cash based transfers (CBT). Cash CBT will be used only where markets have adequate supplies
and optimal functioning with minimal possibilities of creating economic imbalance.
This rapid market assessment study was carried out in newly liberated South West Mosul area (Mosul
District/Ninewa Governorate) as a way of determining possibilities of market-based approaches to
supporting West Mosul IDPs.
This rapid market monitoring and assessment was carried out in South West Mosul covering 10 markets
from 31 May to 3 of June 2017.
This report is a small snapshot of the currently market functionality in West Mosul.

2. OBJECTIVES
The purpose of this initial rapid assessment was to understand the functionality of South West Mosul
markets in order to provide information to planners and policy makers on the possible mechanism of
supporting affected population (IDPs) through market-based food assistance (cash/vouchers). The
assessment complements the market study of May 2017 which covered the East Mosul area.

3. METHODOLOGY
The assessment focused on retail traders of food and non-food commodities in the survey area. Primary
data was collected using a simplified and reduced version of the trader survey methodology developed by
WFP2. A trader survey consists of collecting and analyzing data from traders, then using the results to
inform a response options analysis.
Secondary data review was conducted to provide context and baseline for commodity prices, seasonality
of pricing, availability of commodities and traders behaviour. Assessment reports by other agencies were
also reviewed.
Given current time constraints aligned with the security situation, the study prioritized the main markets
(see below map).

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WFP, Market Analysis Tool - How to Conduct a Trader Survey?, VAM - Food Security Analysis, Rome, 2009

June 2017 WFP Erbil/Iraq 2

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Due to security limitations, WFP conducted the assessment in close collaboration with Islamic Relief
Worldwide (IRW). The training of enumerators took two days plus a day of pilot data collection to test
the tool before the fieldwork.

4. MARKET PRICE MONITORING

In April, the prices of the food commodities monitored by WFP have followed largely similar paths at
national level. With the exception of rice, which saw its national average price increase by 3%, all other
commodities saw their prices fluctuate within an interval of 2% to 1%, indicating a largely stable behaviour
in prices compared to March 2017. At the governorate level, prices have witnessed mixed trends for most
commodities. While prices in Ninewa did not exhibit any significant changes compared to Marchs prices,
other governorates exhibited significant fluctuations in commodity prices. In addition, the cost of food
basket decreased in Ninewa. This reflects into the wage-to-food terms of trade where the highest was
observed in Ninewa (24.8)3.
Going against the trend seen in February and March, the average prices of assessed consumer goods saw
a slight decrease in April, falling approximately 1.5% across all assessed items.
The average decline in prices was primarily driven by decreases in Tikrit (-11.4%), Telafar (-10.1%) and
Mosul (-9.9%) districts. Across the 16 assessed districts, there was large variation in terms of the average
price change, with eight districts seeing their average consumer-goods prices decrease and eight districts
witnessing increases. On the other hand, fuel and butane prices remained relatively consistent between
March and April, with a -2.8% decrease (217.57 IQD) in the average price. Overall, kerosene prices also
decreased by -3.2% (21.69 IQD), with largest decreases reported in Daquq (-14.3%) and Mosul (-13.8%)4.

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IRAQ Market Monitor Report Issue No 9 April 2017.
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Monthly Factsheet: CWG Iraq - Joint Price Monitoring Initiative - April 2017

June 2017 WFP Erbil/Iraq 3

 In most West Mosul neighbourhoods5., the main reported challenge to accessing food was the lack of food
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available in the market (three out of seven neighbourhoods assessed), followed by limited access to
markets due to security constraints (two out of seven). Al-Mansoor is the only neighbourhood in West
Mosul where informants reported easy access to a functioning nearby market. Due to the lack of functional
markets in West Mosul there are reports of people walking long distances in order to buy food or access
distribution sites

5. MAIN FINDINGS
According to the assessment findings, markets in West Mosul are predominately provided by retail and
few wholesalers.
The main commodities traded in this market are cereal, pulses, oil, meat, milk and non-food items such
as kerosene, cooking gas, benzene and soap. In addition, the respondents report cereal, pulses and dairy
products as the three most important commodities in terms of quantity traded. Meat was the least
available commodity due to lack of electricity (for refrigeration) in West Mosul.
Overall, the markets have a large commodity diversity offering a broad range of choices for consumers.
However, the amount of stock is still not enough to cover an increase of demand.
In all visited markets, only males (100%) were engaged in trading. This is in line with the natural business
structure in areas where males dominate businesses. According to the respondents, trading was the main
source of livelihood for all the traders.
During the survey, it was observed that majority of the traders get their supplies in Gogjali (68%) followed
by Mosul Al-Jadedah with 16% and Al-Jaza'ir reported by 12 % of the traders.
The majority of traders did not have access to the banks because Table 1: Average price of commodities in May
currently there is no functional bank in the area. 2017 (Iraqi Dinar (IQD))

Table 1 shows the May 2017 price of commodities in West Mosul

and Erbil. There is a difference of price between the two locations
(West Mosul and Erbil) which could be linked to different supply
sources in both areas. During the assessment, traders mentioned
that prices of the main commodities are more stable compared to
the month before the data collection.
Wheat flour, chickpeas, meat and dairy products are less expensive
in West Mosul when compared with Erbil. Based on this initial
observation, it could be concluded that prices may be returning
slowly to normal confirming a trend that has been seen
before in other liberated areas.
Soap, part of the basic needs package, is four times more expensive
in Mosul than in Erbil, which could be linked to scarcity of the soap
in West Mosul.

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AWG Mosul Multi-Cluster Rapid Needs Assessment April 2017

June 2017 WFP Erbil/Iraq 4

 The ongoing crisis in West Mosul has
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Figure 2: Challenges faced by traders

become a holdup for the flow of
commodities within Kurdistan region,
slightly affecting the market functionality.
Consequently, high transport cost is one
of the major constraint affecting market
functionality reported by 29% of the
traders, followed by low consumer
demand reported by 27% (Figure 2).
Apart from these challenges, traders
mentioned also the impact of the current
conflict in their business where
customers have decreased,
roads/bridges are damaged and the
overall volume of trade has decreased.

6. CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS

West Mosul is still struggling with the challenges of communication infrastructure/road conditions which
are severely disrupted by current ongoing conflicts. These challenges affect the supply sources,
transportation and storage which are crucial in determining the market functionality.
From the findings, it was observed that markets in West Mosul had diverse food commodities with
acceptable prices. However, due to challenges related to insecurity which negatively affect the supply
chain, traders are not able to keep enough stocks to easily respond to increase of demand. Therefore, the
capacity of the traders to absorb the increase of demand is very limited.
Based on the above findings, the cash based transfer programme would not be feasible due
to the low capacity and poor functionality of the markets.
There is a need for continued monitoring of the markets on a regular basis covering main markets of
West Mosul as follow-up on food availability, food commodity prices and market functionality in the
locations where WFP and partners are planning to implement CBT.
In addition, after the situation returns to normal, a comprehensive market assessment to inform on the
market functionality is required. This can be done jointly with WFP partners.

For additional information, please consult monthly market price bulletin produced by WFP Iraq, available
at (https://www.wfp.org/content/iraq-market-monitor-report-2017) and mVAM reports
(http://vam.wfp.org/sites/mvam_monitoring/iraq.html). For more Iraq market assessment report, visit
(https://www.wfp.org/publications/list).

June 2017 WFP Erbil/Iraq 5