03-2 Probabilistic Calculations

Reservoir Management
Probabilistic Calculations
DELIVERING KNOWLEDGE. DEVELOPING COMPETENCE. 1

1 2008 PetroSkills LLC, All Rights Reserved
Working With Uncertainty
We are used to working with single-value

deterministic calculations
Or sensitivity analyses (scenarios)
B
Butt how
h to
t more fully
f ll incorporate
i t uncertainty
t i t
and probabilistic concepts?
In the section we will cover
A brief review of some basic statistics
Two
T methods
th d used d tto perform
f probabilistic
b bili ti
calculations
3.2.2
2008 PetroSkills LLC, All Rights Reserved
Fundamentals of Distributions (I)
Measures of the Middle

Mode - most likely value
Mean - expected value ()
Median - evens chance value (P50)
n n
1
=
n x = p
i =1
i
i =1
xi xi
3.2.3
Fundamentals of Distributions (II)
Measure of the Edges

P 90
Range - minimum to maximum

(entire distribution)
P 10
P10/P90 - 10% of probabilities
lie outside each limit
(80% included)
P5/P95 - iincludes
l d 90% off
distribution 80% OF
PROBABILITY
Range
3.2.4
Fundamentals of Distributions (III)
Measures of Spread
Standard Deviation
Variance 2 = pixi2-2

Variability K =

2
Standard Variance K2 =
2
3.2.5
Standard Deviation and Probability Ranges
STANDARD DEVIATIONS
68.3%
+
Probability Proportion Std Devs

Range Included from Mean 95.5%
P25-P75 50% 0.67 2 +2

P15-P85 70% 1.04
P10-P90 80% 1.28
P5-P95 90% 1.645
P2.5-P97.5 95% 1.96
P1-P99 98% 2.326 99.7%
P.5-P99.5 99% 2.567 3 +3
3.2.6
Types of Distributions
NORMAL LOG-NORMAL
UNIFORM HISTOGRAM
TRIANGULAR DOUBLE TRIANGULAR
3.2.7
Selection of Distribution Functions
Avoid distributions that extend into infinity
normal
normal, log-normal
log normal (confine to physically
reasonable values)
Do not underestimate the possible range of
the parameter (people tend to underestimate
ranges)
D
Dontt use th
the variance
i off an iindividual
di id l sample
l
to forecast the variance around the average of
a number of samplesp
Variance of a single porosity measurement vs the
variance of the average porosity between wells
Variance of the mean = 2/n
3.2.8
Selection of Distribution Functions
Consider distribution of available data
Abundant Data: distribution
Scarce Data: define range & turn into distribution
Most subsurface data sets are scarce
Worry more initially about distribution ranges
p
instead of shape
Focus efforts later on defining the shape of
your most important
y p distributions
3.2.9
Methods For Combining Distributions
x
+

a1 b1 b2 a2 b3 a3
MONTE-CARLO PARAMETRIC
= = 2
b1 x b2 +b3 a1 x a2 +a3 1 x2 +3
Pick samples from distributions Use means and standard deviations to

at random and combine.
combine calculate parameters of resulting dis-
dis
Do it many times. tribution. Assume distribution type.
3.2.10
Combining Distributions
The area under any distribution must, by definition, be equal to one.

So that a cumulative probability curve, ranging from zero to one,
can be drawn for any distribution
distribution.
3.2.11
Monte Carlo Simulation
Generate a random number
between 0 and 1 and find the
associated value of X(=X1)
Generate a random number

between 0 and 1 and find the
associated value of Y(=Y1)
Combine to find Z1
Repeat this process many times
3.2.12
p
p
p
p
p 1/Bo
Sh p

N/G
GRV
STOIIP
p>x
STOIIP
3.2.13
Monte Carlo Simulation
Advantages
Easy to do (on a computer)
Widely available
Veryy flexible
Can add correlation (dependency) between
distributions
Disadvantages
Needs a computer
Can only handle spreadsheet style calculations
3.2.14
The Parametric Method (SPE 26056)

T
Technique
h i tto combine
bi didistributions
t ib ti with
ith analytic
l ti
calculations
Distributions must be independent
Must know the mean and standard deviation of each
distribution
Relies on six simple statistical rules for
combiningg distributions
3.2.15
Six Statistical Rules
1) The sum of independent distributions tends

toward a normal distribution.
distribution
2) The mean of the sum (of distributions) is the
sum of the means: total = i
3) The variance of the sum (of distributions) is
th sum off th
the the variances:
i total
2
= i2
3.2.16
Six Statistical Rules
4) The product of independent distributions

tends toward a Log-Normal distribution
5) The mean of the product (of distributions)
is the product of the means: total = i
6) The value of (1+K2) of the product (of
distributions) is the product of the
individual values (1+k2): (1 + K ) 2
total (
= 1+ K 2 )
i
3.2.17
Determining Distribution Inputs
For abundant data
Use statistical equations for mean (slide 3) and variance
( lid 5)
(slide
Remember probability is equal to frequency of occurrence /
total number of samples
For sparse data
Determine range and use uniform or triangular distributions to
combine
Or
= 0.3(P90 + P10 ) + 0.4 P50
= 0.3(P + P
2 2
90
2
10 ) + 0.4 P 2
50 2
3.2.18
Uniform Distribution
=
( Min + Max )
2
=
2 ( Max Min )
2
12
3.2.19
Triangular Distribution
=
(Min + ML + Max )
3
2 =
[Max (Max Min ) Min(ML Min ) ML(Max ML )]
18
A=Min, C=Max, B=ML
3.2.20
Adding Probability Ranges to Results
How to Find P90, P50 and P10 Values From the

Results
For a Normal Distribution (Sum)
P50 =
P90, P10 = +/- 1.2816*
For a Log-Normal
g Distribution ((Product))
P50 = /SQRT(1+K2)
P90, P10=EXP{ln[/SQRT(1+K2)]} +/- 1.2816*SQRT[ln(1+K2)]
3.2.21
Parametric Method
Advantages
P
Provides
id quick
i k reasonableness
bl check
h k on M
Monte
t
Carlo Method
Very
V reliable
li bl
Not a black box
Disadvantages
Not widely known
Cant handle some problems
3.2.22
Complex Models
Continuous Reduce uncertainty factors to variations around

Distributions a base case
Run single cases through model
'BLACK BOX' IMPACTS ON THE

BASE CASE RESULT
FACTORS
S
RESERVOIR
PROBABILITY
PROBABILITY
SIMULATION
ECONOMIC MODEL
BUSINESS SYSTEM 0.9 1.0
1 0 1.15
F
Multipliers
Complex Models
Calculate impacts
p as multipliers
p of the base case
Combine sensitivities probablisticly using
Multiple Models parametric or monte-carlo methods
3.2.23

03-2 Probabilistic Calculations

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Reservoir Management

DELIVERING KNOWLEDGE. DEVELOPING COMPETENCE. 1

We are used to working with single-value

Measures of the Middle

Mean - expected value ()

Median - evens chance value (P50)

Measure of the Edges

Range - minimum to maximum

Probability Proportion Std Devs

TRIANGULAR DOUBLE TRIANGULAR

Pick samples from distributions Use means and standard deviations to

The area under any distribution must, by definition, be equal to one.

Generate a random number

Repeat this process many times

The Parametric Method (SPE 26056)

1) The sum of independent distributions tends

4) The product of independent distributions

A=Min, C=Max, B=ML

How to Find P90, P50 and P10 Values From the

Continuous Reduce uncertainty factors to variations around

'BLACK BOX' IMPACTS ON THE

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