PROYECCION DE PRECIOS

Revisamos la Evolucin Histrica de los Precios de los Principales Minerales:

Au, Ag, Cu, Pb, Zn
I. ORO (Au)

PRECIO DEL ORO (Au)

AO US$/oz troy
2000 279.37
2001 271.23
2002 310.13
2003 363.62
2004 409.85
2005 445.47
2006 604.58
2007 697.41
2008 872.72
2009 973.62
2010 1225.29
2011 1569.53
2012 1668.86
2013 1409.51
2014 1266.06
2015 1159.82
2016 1248.16

Realizamos el ajuste lineal, tomando a x=ao y y=precio y N=17

X Y X^2 X*Y Y'

0 279.37 0 0 185.575686
1 271.23 1 271.23 271.020123
2 310.13 4 620.26 356.464559
3 363.62 9 1090.86 441.908995
4 409.85 16 1639.4 527.353431
5 445.47 25 2227.35 612.797868
6 604.58 36 3627.48 698.242304
7 697.41 49 4881.87 783.68674
8 872.72 64 6981.76 869.131176
9 973.62 81 8762.58 954.575613
10 1225.29 100 12252.9 1040.02005
11 1569.53 121 17264.83 1125.46449
12 1668.86 144 20026.32 1210.90892
13 1409.51 169 18323.63 1296.35336
 14 1266.06 196 17724.84 1381.79779
15 1159.82 225 17397.3 1467.24223
16 1248.16 256 19970.56 1552.68667
X Y X^2 X*Y
136 14775.23 1496 153063.17

Frmulas de regresin lineal

ECUACION y= a + b x
a 185.576
b 85.444

y= 185.576+85.444x

AU
1800

1600 y = 85.444x + 185.58

1400 R = 0.8031

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

PROYECCION
2017 1638.13
2018 1723.58
2019 1809.02
2020 1894.46
2021 1979.91
2022 2065.35
 II. PLATA (Ag)

PRECIO DE LA PLATA (AG)

AO US$/oz troy
2000 5
2001 4.39
2002 4.63
2003 4.91
2004 6.69
2005 7.34
2006 11.57
2007 13.42
2008 15.01
2009 14.68
2010 20.19
2011 35.17
2012 31.15
2013 23.79
2014 19.08
2015 15.68
2016 17.14

Realizamos el ajuste lineal, tomando a x=ao y y=precio y N=17

X Y X^2 X*Y y'

0 5 0 0 3.773333
1 4.39 1 4.39 5.138725
2 4.63 4 9.26 6.504118
3 4.91 9 14.73 7.86951
4 6.69 16 26.76 9.234902
5 7.34 25 36.7 10.60029
6 11.57 36 69.42 11.96569
7 13.42 49 93.94 13.33108
8 15.01 64 120.08 14.69647
9 14.68 81 132.12 16.06186
10 20.19 100 201.9 17.42725
11 35.17 121 386.87 18.79265
12 31.15 144 373.8 20.15804
13 23.79 169 309.27 21.52343
14 19.08 196 267.12 22.88882
15 15.68 225 235.2 24.25422
16 17.14 256 274.24 25.61961
X Y X^2 X*Y
136 249.84 1496 2555.8
 ECUACION y= a + b x
a 3.773
b 1.365

y= 3.773+1.365x

AG
40
35
30 y = 1.3654x + 3.7733
R = 0.5609
25
20
15
10
5
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

PROYECCION
2017 26.99
2018 28.35
2019 29.72
2020 31.08
2021 32.45
2022 33.81
III. COBRE (Cu)

PRECIO DEL COBRE (Cu)

AO Ctvs.US$/lb
2000 82.24
2001 71.6
2002 70.74
2003 80.7
2004 129.99
2005 166.87
2006 304.91
2007 322.93
2008 315.51
2009 233.52
2010 342.28
2011 400.2
2012 360.59
2013 332.12
2014 311.26
2015 249.23
2016 220.59

Realizamos el ajuste lineal, tomando a x=ao y y=precio y N=17

X Y X^2 X*Y y'

0 82.24 0 0 104.4645
1 71.6 1 71.6 120.7835
2 70.74 4 141.48 137.1025
3 80.7 9 242.1 153.4215
4 129.99 16 519.96 169.7405
5 166.87 25 834.35 186.0595
6 304.91 36 1829.46 202.3785
7 322.93 49 2260.51 218.6975
8 315.51 64 2524.08 235.0165
9 233.52 81 2101.68 251.3355
10 342.28 100 3422.8 267.6545
11 400.2 121 4402.2 283.9735
12 360.59 144 4327.08 300.2925
13 332.12 169 4317.56 316.6114
 14 311.26 196 4357.64 332.9304
15 249.23 225 3738.45 349.2494
16 220.59 256 3529.44 365.5684
X Y X^2 X*Y
136 3995.28 1496 38620.39

ECUACION y= a + b x
a 104.465
b 16.319
y= 104.465+16.319x

CU
450
400 y = 16.319x + 104.46
350 R = 0.5279
300
250
200
150
100
50
0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

PROYECCION
2017 381.89
2018 398.21
2019 414.53
2020 430.84
2021 447.16
2022 463.48
IV. PLOMO (Pb)

PRECIO DEL PLOMO (Pb)

AO Ctvs.US$/lb
2000 20.59
2001 21.6
2002 20.53
2003 23.36
2004 40.21
2005 44.29
2006 58.5
2007 117.03
2008 94.83
2009 77.91
2010 97.61
2011 108.97
2012 93.5
2013 97.12
2014 95.07
2015 80.9
2016 84.89

Realizamos el ajuste lineal, tomando a x=ao y y=precio y N=17

X Y X^2 X*Y y'

0 20.59 0 0 26.25275
1 21.6 1 21.6 31.6249
2 20.53 4 41.06 36.99706
3 23.36 9 70.08 42.36922
4 40.21 16 160.84 47.74137
5 44.29 25 221.45 53.11353
6 58.5 36 351 58.48569
7 117.03 49 819.21 63.85784
8 94.83 64 758.64 69.23
9 77.91 81 701.19 74.60216
10 97.61 100 976.1 79.97431
11 108.97 121 1198.67 85.34647
12 93.5 144 1122 90.71863
13 97.12 169 1262.56 96.09078
14 95.07 196 1330.98 101.4629
15 80.9 225 1213.5 106.8351
 16 84.89 256 1358.24 112.2073
X Y X^2 X*Y
136 1176.91 1496 11607.12

ECUACION y= a + b x
a 26.253
b 5.372

y= 26.253+5.372x

PB
140

120

100

80

60
y = 5.3722x + 26.253
40 R = 0.6363

20

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

PROYECCION
2017 117.58
2018 122.95
2019 128.32
2020 133.70
2021 139.07
2022 144.44
 V. ZINC (Zn)

PRECIO DEL ZINC (Zc)

AO Ctvs.US$/lb
2000 51.16
2001 40.17
2002 35.32
2003 37.54
2004 47.53
2005 62.68
2006 148.56
2007 147.07
2008 85.04
2009 75.05
2010 98.18
2011 99.5
2012 88.29
2013 86.59
2014 98.18
2015 87.47
2016 94.83

Realizamos el ajuste lineal, tomando a x=ao y y=precio y N=17

X Y X^2 X*Y y'

0 51.16 0 0 53.84098
1 40.17 1 40.17 57.28115
2 35.32 4 70.64 60.72132
3 37.54 9 112.62 64.1615
4 47.53 16 190.12 67.60167
5 62.68 25 313.4 71.04184
6 148.56 36 891.36 74.48201
7 147.07 49 1029.49 77.92218
8 85.04 64 680.32 81.36235
9 75.05 81 675.45 84.80252
10 98.18 100 981.8 88.2427
11 99.5 121 1094.5 91.68287
12 88.29 144 1059.48 95.12304
 13 86.59 169 1125.67 98.56321
14 98.18 196 1374.52 102.0034
15 87.47 225 1312.05 105.4436
16 94.83 256 1517.28 108.8837
X Y X^2 X*Y
136 1383.16 1496 12468.87

ECUACION y= a + b x
a 53.841
b 3.440

y= 53.841+3.44x

ZN
180

160
y = 3.4402x + 53.841
140
R = 0.265
120

100

80

60

40

20

0
0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18

PROYECCION
2017 112.32
2018 115.76
2019 119.20
2020 122.64
2021 126.08
2022 129.52