Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
2 August 2010
Danske Daily
Key news
Market movers today: Today
Chinese PMI points to further slowdown
Sweden PMI (8.30 CET) [Tex
Asian stock markets higher on strong earnings
Norway PMI (9.00 CET)
US 10-year bond yields close to this year’s lows
US ISM (16.00 CET) – we look for
Markets looking ahead to US ISM today and the US employment report Friday a further decline to 55 in July from
56.2 in June
indicate that tightening measures from the government are working to cool the Chinese S&P500 (clo se) 1101,6 0,01
S&P500 fut (chng fro m clo se) 1105,8 0,68
economy - see Bloomberg story. Nikkei 9566,2 0,30
Hang Seng 21304,2 1,31
Despite the softer Chinese data Asian stock markets have increased to an 11-week high
17:00 07:30 +/-, bp
adding to the positive trend starting in early July. Positive earnings reports from Honda
US 2y gov 0,57 0,55 -1,6
and Hyundai among others continue to boost sentiment. After the steep decline during US 10y gov 2,94 2,92 -1,8
spring the markets have to some extent been priced for weaker growth.
iTraxx Europe (IG) 100 106 6,1
iTraxx Xover (Non IG) 392 485 92,6
In US stock markets the S&P500 future was also up close to 1% overnight after closing
+/-, %
flat on Friday on the back of disappointing US GDP data. GDP rose 2.4% at an EUR/USD 1,304 1,308 0,32
annualised quarterly rate with 1.1% points coming from inventories. Private consumption USD/JPY 86,710 86,500 -0,24
EUR/CHF 1,36 1,36 -0,14
growth was sluggish and revised lower for the previous quarters leaving some doubts that EUR/GBP 0,831 0,832 0,07
EUR/SEK 9,418 9,403 -0,16
growth can be sustained in coming quarters as the inventory boost is coming to an end – EUR/NOK 7,91 7,93
0,19
see also WSJ. A stronger-than-expected Chicago PMI late Friday eased some of the
USD
fears, though, and stock markets managed to climb back out of red territory. Oil Brent, USD 77,1 78,3 1,57
Gold, USD 1174,5 1183,5 0,77
US bond yields fell further Friday to a 10-year yield of 2.9% close to this year’s low of Note:
* The iTraxx Europe Index show the spread
2.85%. The mixed data picture has left investors comfortable that Fed will not raise rates development for the most liquid investment grade CDS
anytime soon. This adds to demand for higher-yielding longer maturities. This week the contracts in the euro credit market.
market will be looking for further clues on the outlook from the ISM today and non-farm **The iTraxx Europe Crossover show the spread
payrolls report Friday. development of the most liquid non-investment grade
CDS contracts in the euro credit market.
In FX markets EUR/USD is slightly higher while USD/JPY is broadly unchanged Source: Bloomberg
compared to the European close Friday. There have been no big movements in Scandi
markets.
Chief Analyst
Allan von Mehren
+45 4512 8055
alvo@danskebank.dk
www.danskeresearch.com
Danske Daily
Global Daily
Focus today: In the morning attention will be on earning reports from BNP Paribas and
How fast will the US ISM decline?
HSBC holdings. Global manufacturing PMIs are released today. With Eurozone flash
estimates already released, the main event is the US ISM, where we expect a moderate 65 Index
Index
65
60 60
decline to 55. Later in the afternoon Fed Chairman Bernanke will deliver a speech on the
55 55
economy and state governments. Audience Q&A is expected and could prove interesting. 50 50
In the evening US Treasurer Geithner will comment on the financial reform. 45
ISM manufacturing
45
40 40
Fixed income markets: In the past couple of weeks US bond yields have been relatively 35 35
30 30
unaffected by the recovery in risk appetite, as the markets seem to focus more on the 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10
mixed evidence from incoming economic data. In Germany, however, bond yields have
moved higher with fears of southern European debt easing a bit and economic data Source: Reuters Ecowin
beating expectations. Today focus will be on PMI data – in particular the US ISM – and
Bernanke’s comments in the afternoon. Further, the US Treasury will release financing
estimates for the coming six months. US S&P500 future
1113 1113
1103 1103
1093 1093
1083 1083
1073 1073
1063 1063
Thu Fri Tue Wed Thu Mon
Source: Danske Markets
1.275 86
Thu Fri Tue Wed Thu Mon
Scandi FX
EUR/SEK (LHS) EUR/NOK (RHS)
8.06
9.51 8.02
9.47 7.98
9.43 7.94
9.39 7.90
Thu Fri Tue Wed Thu
2| 2 August 2010
www.danskeresearch.com
Danske Daily
FX & COMMODITIES
O il,
EUR/USD Intraday E UR 17:00 07:30 +/- G o ld, $ B re nt , $
130.8 130.8 USD 130.36 130.78 0.42 07:30 1183.54 78.28
JP Y 113.03 113.12 0.09 1day 2.54 0.10
130.4Max ## 130.4 GB P 83.15 83.20 0.06 1mo nth -28.06 6.63
Min ## NOK 791.09 792.56 1.47 Year-t-date 86.59 0.35
130.0 0.4 130.0 SEK 941.79 940.25 -1.54
DKK 745.09 745.08 -0.01 CRB C R B , R aw
129.6 129.6 P LN 400.34 400.38 0.04 1M f ut ure Indus t ria ls
07 10 13 16 19 22 01 04 US D 17:00 07:30 +/- 07:30 274.35 484.93
JP Y 86.71 86.50 -0.21 1day 4.15 0.68
1mo nth 5.12 GB P 156.78 157.19 0.41 1mo nth 19.87 7.72
Year-to -date -12.43 CHF 104.53 104.04 -0.49 Year-t-date -9.03 1.44
* The chart plot s 07:30 - 23:00 Fri and 23:00 Sun t o 07:30 Mon
3| 2 August 2010
www.danskeresearch.com
Danske Daily
Disclosure
This research report has been prepared by Danske Research, which is part of Danske Markets, a division of
Danske Bank. Danske Bank is under supervision by the Danish Financial Supervisory Authority
Danske Bank has established procedures to prevent conflicts of interest and to ensure the provision of high
quality research based on research objectivity and independence. These procedures are documented in the Danske
Bank Research Policy. Employees within the Danske Bank Research Departments have been instructed that any
request that might impair the objectivity and independence of research shall be referred to Research Management
and to the Compliance Officer. Danske Bank Research departments are organised independently from and do not
report to other Danske Bank business areas. Research analysts are remunerated in part based on the over-all
profitability of Danske Bank, which includes investment banking revenues, but do not receive bonuses or other
remuneration linked to specific corporate finance or debt capital transactions.
Danske Bank research reports are prepared in accordance with the Danish Society of Investment Professionals’
Ethical rules and the Recommendations of the Danish Securities Dealers Association.
Risk warning
Major risks connected with recommendations or opinions in this research report, including as sensitivity analysis
of relevant assumptions, are stated throughout the text.
Expected updates
This publication is updated on a daily basis.
Disclaimer
This publication has been prepared by Danske Markets for information purposes only. It has been prepared
independently, solely from publicly available information and does not take into account the views of Danske
Bank’s internal credit department. It is not an offer or solicitation of any offer to purchase or sell any financial
instrument. Whilst reasonable care has been taken to ensure that its contents are not untrue or misleading, no
representation is made as to its accuracy or completeness and no liability is accepted for any loss arising from
reliance on it. Danske Bank, its affiliates or staff may perform services for, solicit business from, hold long or
short positions in, or otherwise be interested in the investments (including derivatives), of any issuer mentioned
herein. The Equity and Corporate Bonds analysts are not permitted to invest in securities under coverage in their
research sector. This publication is not intended for retail customers in the UK or any person in the US. Danske
Markets is a division of Danske Bank A/S. Danske Bank A/S is authorized by the Danish Financial Supervisory
Authority and is subject to provisions of relevant regulators in all other jurisdictions where Danske Bank A/S
conducts operations. Moreover Danske Bank A/S is subject to limited regulation by the Financial Services
Authority (UK). Details on the extent of our regulation by the Financial Services Authority are available from us
on request. Copyright (C) Danske Bank A/S. All rights reserved. This publication is protected by copyright and
may not be reproduced in whole or in part without permission.
This publication has been prepared by the correspondent of Auerbach Grayson & Company Incorporated
(“AGC”) named above on the date listed above.
We are distributing this publication in the U.S. and any U.S. person receiving this report and wishing to effect
transactions in any security discussed herein, should do so only with a representative of Auerbach Grayson &
Company Incorporated. Additional information on recommended securities is available on request.
4| 2 August 2010
www.danskeresearch.com