Chapter 5-Part 2.

Models of
Traffic Flow

CE 122. Traffic and Highway

Engineering
 Introduction

arrival rate

Toll
Gate 1

server

arrival rate
Introduction
Macroscopic relationships and analyses
are very valuable, but
A considerable amount of traffic
analysis occurs at the microscopic
level
In particular, we often are interested in
the elapsed time between the
arrival of successive vehicles (i.e.,
time headway)
Introduction
The simplest approach to modeling vehicle
arrivals is to assume a uniform spacing
This results in a deterministic, uniform arrival
patternin other words, there is a constant
time headway between all vehicles
However, this assumption is usually
unrealistic, as vehicle arrivals typically follow
a random process
Thus, a model that represents a random
arrival process is usually needed
Introduction
For a sequence of events to be considered
truly random, two conditions must be met:
1. Any point in time is as likely as any other
for an event to occur (e.g., vehicle arrival)
2. The occurrence of an event does not affect
the probability of the occurrence of
another event (e.g., the arrival of one vehicle
at a point in time does not make the arrival of
the next vehicle within a certain time period any
more or less likely)
Introduction
The Poisson distribution:
Is a discrete (as opposed to continuous)
distribution
Is commonly referred to as a counting
distribution
Represents the count distribution of
random events
 Poisson distribution
Equation for Poisson dist. is:
t
(t ) e
n
P ( n) (Eq. 5.23)
n!
P (n) = probability of exactly n vehicles arriving
in a time interval t
= average arrival rate (veh/unit time)
n = # of vehicles arriving in a specific time
interval
t = selected time interval (duration of each
counting period (unit time))
Poisson Example
Example:
Consider a 1-hour traffic volume of 120
vehicles, during which the analyst is
interested in obtaining the distribution of
1-minute volume counts
Poisson Example
= (120 veh/h) / (3600 sec/h) = 0.0333 veh/s
t = 0.0333 veh/s 60 sec = 2 veh

OR

= (120 veh/h) / (60 min/h) = 2 veh/min

t = 2 veh/min 1 min = 2 veh

2
2 e0
1 0.1353
P(0) 0.1353
0! 1
 Poisson Example
probability of exactly n vehicles # of 1-min intervals with
arriving in 1-min interval exactly n vehicle arrivals

21 e 2 2 0.1353
P(1) 0.2707 x 60 min = 16.24
1! 1
22 e 2 4 0.1353
P(2) 0.2707 x 60 min = 16.24
2! 2
23 e 2 8 0.1353
P(3) 0.1804 x 60 min = 10.82
3! 6
And so on
Poisson Example
Poisson Example
18
16
14
12
Frequency

10
8
6
4
2
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
# of veh arrivals/minute
Poisson Example
What is the probability of between 1
and 3 cars arriving (in 1-min interval)?

P1 n 3 Pn 1 Pn 2 Pn 3

P1 n 3 27.1% 27.1% 18.0%

72.2%
 Poisson Example
What is the probability of more than 6
cars arriving (in 1-min interval)?
Pn 6 1 Pn 6
6
1 Pn i
i 0

Pn 6 1 (0.135 0.271 0.271 0.180 0.090 0.036 0.012)

1 0.995
0.005 or (0.5%)
Poisson distribution
The assumption of Poisson distributed
vehicle arrivals also implies a
distribution of the time intervals
between the arrivals of successive
vehicles (i.e., time headway)
Negative Exponential
To demonstrate this, let the average arrival
rate, , be in units of vehicles per second, so
that
q veh h veh

3600 sec h sec

Substituting into Poisson equation

yields n qt
qt 3600
e
P ( n) 3600 (Eq. 5.25)
n!
Negative Exponential
Note that the probability of having no
vehicles arrive in a time interval of
length t [i.e., P (0)] is equivalent to
the probability of a vehicle
headway, h, being greater than or
equal to the time interval t.
Negative Exponential
So from Eq. 5.25,

P(0) P(h t ) (Eq. 5.26)

qt Note:

1e 3600
e
qt
3600
x0 1
1 0! 1

This distribution of vehicle headways is known as

the negative exponential distribution
Negative Exponential Example
Assume vehicle arrivals are Poisson
distributed with an hourly traffic flow of 360
veh/h.

Determine the probability that the headway

between successive vehicles will be less than
8 seconds.

Determine the probability that the headway

between successive vehicles will be between
8 and 11 seconds.
Negative Exponential Example
By definition, Ph t 1 Ph t

Ph 8 1 Ph 8
qt
Ph 8 1 e 3600

360( 8 )
1 e 3600

1 0.4493
0.551
Negative Exponential Example

P8 h 11 Ph 11 Ph 8
1 Ph 11 Ph 8
360(11)
1 e 3600
0.551
1 0.3329 0.551
0.1161
Negative Exponential
1.0

0.8 e^(-qt/3600)
Prob (h >= t)

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Time (sec)

For q = 360 veh/hr

Negative Exponential
c.d.f.
1.0

0.8
Probability (h < t)

0.6 1 - e^(-qt/3600)
0.551

0.4

0.2

0.0
0 5 8 10 15 20 25 30 35
Time (sec)