Agent-Based Modelling in Archaeology PDF

AGENT-BASED MODELLING IN
ARCHAEOLOGY
KERSTIN KOWARIK
NATURALHISTORY MUSEUM VIENNA
AUSTRIAN ACADEMY OF SCIENCES
Introduction and State of the Art

Our Starting Point
2 Kerstin Kowarik Agent-based Modelling in Archaeology 03.03.2011
The Prehistoric Department/NHM Vienna and the Vienna Technical University have
been working on simulating prehistoric mining in the salt mines of Hallstatt since 2007
(Kowarik et al. 2010)
Drawing D. Grbner/H. Reschreiter NHM Wien, Photos A. Rausch NHM Wien
Kowarik et al. 2010

I. Introduction
There are two approaches to the study of social

behavior: Collect, observational, survey or other
forms of data and analyze them, possibly by
estimating a model; or begin from a theoretical
understanding of certain social behavior, build a
model of it, and then simulate its dynamics to gain a
better understanding of the complexity of a seemingly
simple social system. (Liao 2008: IX in Gilbert
2008)
I. Introduction
The idea of using computer-based modelling in the

social sciences dates back to the 1960s.
Widespread use since the 1990s
Considered a valuable tool for the social sciences
by some
In the natural sciences simulations = basic
methodological tool
Regional preferences: Western Europe, Northwest
America
II. General Remarks
Model
A model is a simplification smaller, less detailed, less
complex, or all of these together of some other
structure or system. (Gilbert / Troitzsch 2009: 2)
II. General Remarks
Modelling
One creates some kind of simplified representation of
social reality that serves to express as clearly as
possible the way in which one believes that reality
operates. (Gilbert 2008: 2)
II. General Remarks
Benefits
Mathematical and computer modelling require precision
Every aspect of the model needs to be laid out precisely.
Model building highlights logical gaps and data gaps in the
verbal model.
Relationships between system parts need to be identified
and described in detail.
II. General Remarks
Simulation
Here:simulations = computer-based simulations
A particular type of modelling
II. General Remarks
Benefits of computer-based modelling in the social

sciences
Formalization:computational model building as a
method of theory development
Understanding
Exploration:
explore our own assumptions systematically
Experimentation: what-if-scenarios
III. Agent-based Modelling
Complex Systems
Systems that are composed of many different parts
System behaviour cannot be explained by reduction to
its component parts.
Interaction of the system parts leads to new and
unpredictable behaviour on system level -> emergence
System behaviour cannot be explained through simple
cause and effect relations -> non-linear
III. Agent-based Modelling
Complexity Theory Systems Theory!

Both theories deal with systems.
But Systems Theory describes system behaviour by
breaking the system down to subsystems and
modelling those.
Systems Theory assumes that the relationship of
system parts is known and understood.
Complexity Theory assumes that relationships between
systems parts are not well known, that they are
unstable and non-linear and thus unpredictable.
III. Agent-based Modelling (ABM)
What is Agent-based Modelling?

...computational method that enables a researcher to
create, analyze and experiment with models composed of
agents that interact within an environment. (Gilbert
2008: 2)
Used in natural and social sciences to model

Crystallization
Flockingof birds/swarm dynamics

Economic systems
Traffic
Create Artificial Societies: war, segregation,

networks
Development of ABM stimulated through

Research on complex, non-linear systems
Artificial Intelligence
Objective: understand properties of large aggregates

of matter
Turbulent flow in liquids, soil erosion...
Were used to model properties of materials/systems by
simulating the interactions between the component units
(Gilbert / Troitzsch 2009: 9)
Agents
Agents are either separate computer programs or, more
commonly, distinct parts of a program that are used to
represent social actors individual people, organizations
such as firms, or bodies such as nation-states. (Gilbert
2008: 5)
Agents can interact intelligently with their environment,
be it social or other.
Abilities of Agents according to N. Gilbert (2008: 21-22)

Perception
Performance
Motion
Communication
Action
Memory
Policy
What can we do with Agents?

Agents can be given simple behavioural rules.
These rules can be chosen to guide interaction of the
agents with each other or of agents with the
environment or both.
They can be given knowledge and they are able to
learn.
On this basis they will be able to make independent
decisions. (Altaweel 2006: 37)
What is special about Agents?

agents can be distinguished from other entities that
can express behavior by the fact that agents have some
cognitive decision-making abilities (Woolridge and
Jennings 1995: 128 according to Altaweel 2006: 37)
What can we do with Agents?

Define a different set of rules for any single agent
We can model individuals, groups, institutions,
Different agent types can be put in one model
Two model types

One agent interacting with its environment.
Groups of agent
Artifical Societies: Sugarscape (Epstein / Axtell 1996)
NetLogo/Models Library: Sugarscape, Screenshot

Environment
Virtualworld in which agents interact
Most commonly a geographic space with features such
as houses, different soil types
Spatially
specific
Not comparable to GIS-environments!
But other spaces can be designed: knowledge space,

symbol space, networks.
Modelling from a special perspective: Bottom Up

The ability to study non-linear dynamics generated from the
bottom-up not only distinguishes agent-based models from top-
down, deterministic models, but it also makes them especially
attractive to social scientists.
(Epstein / Axtell 1996 according to Premo 2008: 47)
IV. ABM in Archaeology
Applications
Socio-ecological dynamics
Spatial processes
Adaptation
Culture Change (long-time-perspective)
Social interaction
Emergence of social complexity
Evolution of sociality
Decision making
Specific Research Questions

Identifying drivers of historical change
Population aggregation and abandonment
Civilization collapse
Response to changing environmental and social conditions
Impact of ecological stress
System resilience
Mechanisms of adaptation
Emergence of territories
Settlement dynamics
Site selection
Specific Research Questions

Resource management
Land use
Selfishness vs altruism
Food sharing
Social stratification
Emergence of centralized decision making
Emergence of specialization
Culture contact
Maintenance of ethnic boundaries
Formation of political entities
Prevailing issues
spatial processes
socio-ecological dynamics in relation with culture change
land use
resource management
ABMs with a strong emphasis on inter-agent relations
and/or situated in non-geographic environments are rare
Geographic Space in ABM
Elaborate Data Collection
Very simple surfaces
Combining ABM and GIS one focus of actual research
Artificial Anasazi (Dean et al. 1999)

The Artificial Anasazi model is one of the icon models of the
modelling community (Janssen 2009: 1).
Spatial ABM
The model describes site selection behaviour of Anasazi

farming households in the Long House Valley of Arizona
between 800-1350 (Griffin / Stanish 2007: 3).
The model presented here is not the original model
presented by Dean at al. but the model built by Marco
Janssen on the basis the original model (Janssen 2009).
Every year the following sequence of calculations is performed:

1) Calculate the harvest for each household
2) IF an agent derives not sufficient food from harvest and storage OR the age
is beyond maximum age of household THEN the agent is removed from the
system
3) Calculate the estimated harvest for next year based on corn in stock and
actual harvest from current year
4) Agents who expect not to derive the required amount of food next year will
move to a new farm location and a plot to settle nearby.
5) If a household is older than the minimum fertility age, there is a probability pf,
that a new household is generated. The new household will derive an endowment
of a fraction fcs of the corn stock.
6) Update water sources based on input data
7) Each agent, household, ages with one year.
(Janssen 2009: 5)
NetLogo, Screenshot; Model by Janssen 2009

Download model: http://www.openabm.org/model/2222/version/1/view
Comparable ABMs
ENKIMDU: Modelling Bronze Age Communities in Upper
Mesopotamia (Wilkinson 2007)
Objective:model the impact of ecological stress on farming,
herding and trade behaviour (Griffin / Stanish 2007: 3)
http://www.dis.anl.gov/projects/enkimdu.html
Lake Titicaca Basin
The model (...) was designed to explain the role of
agriculture, competition, and trade leading to the political
consolidation observed in the Titicaca Basin. (Griffin /
Stanish 2007: 2)
PatronWorld: Simulating Roman Social Life and Civil

Violence (Graham 2009)
Based on the ritual morning greeting between clients
and patrons (Salutatio)
Objective: modelling purges and prescriptions and the
circumstances leading to those
Download model:
http://www.graeworks.net/abm/PatronWorld.html
PatronWorld (Graham 2009)
Graham 2009, Fig. 1


Agents:
Examine their own level of status
Examine the status of others
Seek audience with higher status patrons
Select to receive clients with high status
Deny to receive clients with low status
Exchange gifts when paying respects
Trade with counterparts of similar status level

Modelling violence
Agents can be denied audience due to their low status.
Agents remember who has denied/rejected them.
Each agent has its own tolerance for rejection.
The reaction to rejection depends on whether neighbouring
agents are also prepared to act.
Action means turning violent, than agents kill agents whom they
hold a grudge against.
The outbreak of violence
Depends on the number of agents holding a grievance against a
patron
Depends on the authority (wealth and prestige) and the number
of followers of the patron
EOS: Evolution of Organized Society (Doran et al. 1994)

Explore theories which account for the growth of social
complexity among the human population in the Upper
Paleolithic Period
Emergence of status, roles and leadership
Eormation of relationships between individuals
Especially authority relationships/centralized decision
making
EOS (Doran et al. 1994)

Agents are capable of self-interested rational
decision making, planning and cooperation in the
context of resource gathering.
Environment: landscape with a scattering of resources
which provide energy for the agents

Agents
Communicate with each other
Do rudimentary planning
In the simulation agents could either
Acquire resources alone
Construct plans involving other agents to secure resources
collectively
Plans involved
Determine resources to be selected
Select agents for work
Calculate expected result and plan distribution
Negotiate plan with other agents
Choose from several plans -> select plan with greatest pay-off

Results:
Some agents will repeatedly adopt plans proposed to them
by particular other agents.
They will come to see themselves as followers.
Very thinly distributed resources -> working alone greater
payoff
Concentration of resources -> working together and
building extensive hierarchies paid off better
Concentration of agents and insufficient resources ->
hierarchies collapsed and disorganization ensued
If hierarchies once established were persistent chances of
survival were worse than when follower-leader relationships
were only temporary.
V. Conclusion
Possibilities
Explore our ideas about the past
Experiment with those ideas
Hypothesis testing
Maybe filling in some gaps
But
Time, effort, data
Epistemological problems
Modelling philosophy:
Real world models vs Stylized models
Exploration vs Prediction
References
Altaweel Mark (2006). Adressing the Structures and Dynamics of Modeled Human Ecologies. In: J. Clark
/ J. Hagemeister (eds.), Digital Discovery: Exploring New Frontiers in Human Heritage [CAA 2006.
Computer Applications and Quantitative Methods in Archaeology]. Pp. 30-41. Budapest: Archaeolingua:
30-41.
Dean, Jeffrey S. / Gumerman, George J. / Epstein, Joshua M. / Axtell, Robert L. / Swedlund, Alan C.
/ Parker, Miles T. / McCarroll, Steven (1999). Unterstanding Anasazi Culture Change Through Agent-
Based Modelling. In: Timothy A. Kohler / Georg J. Gummerman (eds), Dynamics in Human and Primate
Societies. Agent-Based Modeling of social and spatial processes. Pp. 179-207. New York Oxford:
Oxford University Press.
Doran, Jim / Palmer, Mike / Gilbert, Nigel / Mellars, Paul (1994). The EOS Project: Modeling Upper
Paleolithic Social Change. In: Nigel Gilbert / Jim Doran (eds.), Artificial Societies. Pp 195-221. London:
UCL Press.
Epstein, Joshua M. / Axtell, Robert (1996). Growing Artificial Societies: Social Science from the Bottom-
up. Washington DC Cambridge: The Brookings Institution Press and MIT Press.
Gilbert, Nigel (2008). Agent-Based Models. Quantitative Applications in the Social Sciences 153.
Gilbert, Nigel / Troitzsch, Klaus G. (2009). Simulation for the social scientist. Berkshire: Open University
Press.
Graham, Shawn (2009). Behaviour Space: Simulating Roman Social Life and Civil Violence . Digital
Studies / Le champ numrique, Vol 1, No 2.
http://www.digitalstudies.org/ojs/index.php/digital_studies/article/view/172/214.
References
Griffin, Arthur F. / Stanish, Charles (2007). An Agent-based Model of Prehistoric Settlement Patterns
and Political Consolidation in the Lake Titicaca Basin of Peru and Bolivia. Structure and Dynamics, 2(2).
http://www.escholarship.org/uc/item/2zd1t887 .
Janssen, Marco A. (2009). 'Understanding Artificial Anasazi'. Journal of Artificial Societies and Social
Simulation 12(4)13 http://jasss.soc.surrey.ac.uk/12/4/13.html.
Kowarik, Kerstin / Reschreiter, Hans / Wurzer, Gabriel (2010). Modeling a mine. Agentbased
Modeling, Systemdynamics and Experimental Archaeology applied to the Bronze Age Saltmines of
Hallstatt. In: Mining in European History and its Impact on Environment and Human Societies. Proceedings
for the 1st Mining in European History-Conference of the SFB-HIMAT. Pp: 199-208. Innsbruck: University
Press.
Liao, Tim F. (2008). Series Editors Introduction. In: Nigel Gilbert,Agent-Based Models. Quantitative
Applications in the Social Sciences 153. Pp. IX-X.
Premo, Luke S. (2008). Exploring behavioral terra incognita with archaeological agent-based models.
In: B. Frischer / A. Dakouri-Hild (eds.), Beyond Illustration: 2D and 3D Technologies as Tools of Discovery in
Archaeology. Pp. 46-56. British Archaeological Reports International Series 1805. Oxford: ArchaeoPress.
Wilkinson, Tony J. Et al. (2007). Modeling Settlement Systems in a dynamic Environment, Case Studies
from Mesopotamia. In: Timothy A. Kohler / Sander E. van der Leeuw (eds.), The Model-Based Archaeology
of Socionatural Systems. Pp. 175-208. Santa Fe: School for Advance Research Press.
Woolridge, Michael / Jennings, Nicholas (1995). Intelligent Agents: Theory and Practice. The Knowledge
Engineering Review 10(2). Pp. 115-152.
Further Reading
Beekman, Christopher S. / Baden, William W. (2005). Nonlinear Models for Archaeology

and Anthropology. Continuing the Revolution. Hampshire Burlington: Ashgate.
Bentley, R. Alexander / Maschner, Herbert D. G. (2003). Complex Systems and
Archaeology. Empirical and Theoretical Applications. Foundations of Archaeological Inquiry.
Salt Lake City: University of Utah Press.
Costopoulos, Andre / Lake, Mark (2010). Simulating Change. Archaeology into the twenty-
first century. Foundattions of Archaeological Inquiry. Salt Lake City: The University of Utah
Press.
Epstein, Joshua M. / Axtell, Robert (1996). Growing Artificial Societies: Social Science from
the Bottom-up. Washington DC Cambridge: The Brookings Institution Press and MIT Press.
Gilbert, Nigel / Doran, Jim (1994). Artificial Societies: The Computer simulation of social
phenomena. London: UCL Press.
Kohler, Timothy A. / Gummerman, Georg J. (2000). Dynamics in Human and Primate
Societies. Agent-Based Modeling of social and spatial processes. New York Oxford:
Oxford University Press.
Kohler, Timothy A. / van der Leeuw, Sander E. (2007). The Model-Based Archaeology of
Socionatural Systems. Santa Fe: School for Advance Research Press.

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AGENT-BASED MODELLING IN

Introduction and State of the Art

Drawing D. Grbner/H. Reschreiter NHM Wien, Photos A. Rausch NHM Wien

Kowarik et al. 2010

There are two approaches to the study of social

The idea of using computer-based modelling in the

Benefits of computer-based modelling in the social

Complexity Theory Systems Theory!

What is Agent-based Modelling?

Used in natural and social sciences to model

Flockingof birds/swarm dynamics

Create Artificial Societies: war, segregation,

Development of ABM stimulated through

Objective: understand properties of large aggregates

Abilities of Agents according to N. Gilbert (2008: 21-22)

What can we do with Agents?

What is special about Agents?

What can we do with Agents?

Different agent types can be put in one model

Two model types

Artifical Societies: Sugarscape (Epstein / Axtell 1996)

NetLogo/Models Library: Sugarscape, Screenshot

But other spaces can be designed: knowledge space,

Modelling from a special perspective: Bottom Up

Culture Change (long-time-perspective)

Specific Research Questions

Specific Research Questions

Artificial Anasazi (Dean et al. 1999)

The model describes site selection behaviour of Anasazi

Every year the following sequence of calculations is performed:

NetLogo, Screenshot; Model by Janssen 2009

PatronWorld: Simulating Roman Social Life and Civil

PatronWorld (Graham 2009)

Graham 2009, Fig. 1

PatronWorld (Graham 2009)

PatronWorld (Graham 2009)

EOS: Evolution of Organized Society (Doran et al. 1994)

EOS (Doran et al. 1994)

EOS (Doran et al. 1994)

EOS (Doran et al. 1994)

Beekman, Christopher S. / Baden, William W. (2005). Nonlinear Models for Archaeology

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