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HORECA
2011 KSA
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progressively more attracted to western trends, therefore the long-term volume growth is 140.000
very promising.
United Arab Emirates
Bahrain
120.000 Kuwait
Towering consumption of high-value packaged and processed foods on account of the enor-
Oman
Qatar
100.000 Saudi Arabia
Comparing to neighboring countries, Saudi Arabia gives a lower cost export base for the fact 40.000
that the country is a member of the Gulf Co-operation Council (GCC). 20.000
As the Saudi lifestyles becomes busier along with tastes and preferences development, the 0
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demand for processed and packaged goods is meant to carry on more increasingly in the Saudi market.
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2011f
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2015f
Source: UNCTAD
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Table: Food Consumption Indicators 2006- 2015
Detailed Analysis for Food 2006 2007 2008 2009e 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f
Food Data Highlights Food Consumption (US$bn) 23.38 28.30 31.03 36.17 37.67 41.10 44.53 48.09 52.58 57.62
Headline food consumption forecast annual growth to 2015: 8.09% Food Consumption (SARbn) 87.54 106.00 116.21 135.44 141.09 159.94 166.75 180.09 196.90 215.79
Per capita forecast food consumption annual growth to 2015: 5.91%
Per Capita Food Consumption (US$) 987.2 1,171.7 1,259.1 1,142.5 1,449.6 1,550.1 1,646.4 1,744.3 1,871.7 2,0140.0
Keynotes Factors for New Market Per Capita Food Consumption (SAR) 3.697 4.388 4.715 5.350 5.429 5.805 6.166 6.533 7.010 7,542
25% of total private consumption in Saudi Arabia consisting of food expenditure. Total Food Consumption Growth(y-o-y) 7.03 21.9 9.64 16.55 4.17 9.10 8.32 8.00 9.33 9.59
Motivated by the predictable economic and population growth, signicant investment into
Per Capita Food Consumption Growth (y-o-y) 4.50 18.69 7.46 13.45 1.48 6.93 6.21 5.95 7.30 7.60
food processing particularly main segments such as dairy, is anticipated to grow by 2015, in
US$ terms, per capita food consumption to grow past US$2,000. Food Consumption as % GDP 6.55 7.35 6.52 9.78 8.17 8.36 8.33 8.44 8.67
Saudi Arabia is the only market in the gulf region which can pragmatically and realistically e/f = BMI estimate/forecast; na = not available/applicable. Source: Ministry of Economy and Planning, Central Department of Statistics, Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency, Company Information, Trade Press, BMI
presents investors with long-term volume growth potential especially with an expected
growth of population to reach 28 million by 2015.
Food Consumption
The food market is much less contingent on catching the attention of expatriates to uphold 2005-2015
the consumer base, comparing to UAE market where 80% of population is consisted of expa- 8000 20
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triates, therefore the Saudi market carry less down risks to the population and headline food 7000
6000
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14
consumption growth gures. 5000
4000
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10
Permeation of expansion of organized retail channels will also contribute to food consump- 3000
2000
08
06
04
tion growth over the long term. 1000 02
00
0
Increased in organized retailing will carry on to reinforce internal trade systems, which will
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put in to lower expenditure & cost savings that can be passed on to consumers.
Per capita food consumption(SAR)(LHS)
Per capita food consumptiongrowth (y-o-y)(RHS)
e/f =BMI estimate/forecast; na = not available/applicable.source: Minisrty of Economy and planning, Central
Department of Statisties, Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency, Company Information, Trade Press, BMI
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Confectionery Confectionery Sales
2005-2015
40 2.0
35 1.8
Food Data Highlights 30
1.6
14
Confectionery annual value sales growth to 2015: 1.11% 25
20
1..2
1..0
15 0.8
0.6
10 0.4
Notes on Confectionery in Saudi Arabia 5 0.2
0 0.0
The forecast until 2015 will remain being largely driven by premiumisation momentum with a
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strong opportunities to producers able to place products to capture upside provided by
premiumisation. Confectionery Sales (SARmn)(LHS)
Confectionery Sales growth,SAR, (y-o-y)
e/f =BMI estimate/forecast; na = not available/applicable.source: Minisrty of Economy and planning, Central
Department of Statisties, Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency, Company Information, Trade Press, BMI
The growth is expected to be spread across the sugar confectionery, chocolate and gum
segments. Putting in mind that Saudi consumers are somewhat sensitive toward prices. There-
fore, products at the low end of the price range are probable to remain mostly popular. Detailed Analysis for Drink (Soft Drink)
Confectionery Sales (US$mn) 987.2 1,171.7 1,259.1 1,142.5 1,449.6 1,550.1 1,646.4 1,744.3 1,871.7 300.5 Keynotes Factors for Drink in Saudi Arabia
e/f = BMI estimate/forecast; na = not available/applicable. Source: Ministry of Economy and Planning, Central Department of Statistics, Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency, Company Information, Trade Press, BMI
The drink industry will carry on a strong growth and will increase over the forecast period to
2015. The growth is out of the following causes:
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o Alcoholic drinks industry absence. Table: Soft Drink Sales- Historical Data & Forecasts, 2006- 2015
o Harsh climate in Saudi Arabia. 2006 2007 2008 2009e 2010f 2011f 2012f 2013f 2014f 2015f
o Size of population which make up approximately two thirds of the Gulf's population
Carbonated Drink Sales (SARmn) 2.483 2.533 2.583 2.593 2.626 2.672 2.728 2.792 2.859 2.927
Bottled Water Sales (SARmn) 2.895 3.040 3.192 3.243 3.296 3.480 3.714 3.984 4.260 4.535
Saudi Arabia soft drink industry is the largest by volume and value comparing to the region's industry.
The consumers as we mentioned are brand-loyal and are always interested in new and origi- Juice Sales (SARmn) 2.389 2.628 2.891 3.016 3.119 3.494 3.970 4.523 5.523 5.647
nal products, which is a very essential factor in the drink industry. Laban Sales (SARmn) 1.013 1.023 1.033 1.036 1.042 1.053 1.066 1.081 1.096 1.112
The avored, bottled water with an emphasis on the size of bottles, are taking a great place
Energy Drink Sales (SARmn) 271.4 294.0 318.4 324.4 336.5 358.3 386.1 418.4 451.2 483.8
in the industry due to the lack of adequate drinkable water thus, it will carry on strong
growth over the forecast period. Soft Drink Sales (SARmn) 9.051 9.517 10.017 10.213 10.420 11.057 11.863 12.798 13.751 14.705
O-trade sales of soft drink through retail channels account for 80% of total volume sales, Total Soft Drink Sales Growth, SAR, (y-o-y) 5.04 5.15 5.25 1.95 2.03 6.11 7.29 7.88 7.45 6.93
with supermarket and hypermarkets accounting for approximately 36% of soft drink sales,
Carbonated Drink Sales (US$mn) 663.0 676.3 689.8 692.5 701.2 713.4 728.3 745.5 763.3 781.5
while independent food stores accounted for around 22%.
Bottled Water Sales (US$mn) 773 812 852 866 880 929 992 1.064 1.137 1.211
Soft Drink Sales Juice Sales (US$mn) 638 702 772 805 833 933 1.060 1.208 1.358 1.508
2005-2015
Laban Sales (US$mn) 270.4 273.1 275.8 276.7 278.3 281.0 284.6 288.7 292.8 296.8
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Energy Drink Sales (US$mn) 72.5 78.5 85.0 86.6 89.9 95.7 103.1 111.7 120.5 129.2
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Soft Drinks Sales (US$mn) 2.417 2.541 2.675 2.727 2.782 2.952 3.168 3.417 3.672 3.927
2000
1000
Per Capita Soft Drink Spend (US$) 102.1 105.2 108.5 107.7 107.1 111.3 117.1 124.0 130.7 137.2
0
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e/f = BMI estimate/forecast; na = not available/applicable. Source: Ministry of Economy and Planning, Central Department of Statistics, Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency, Company Information, Trade Press, BMI
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Detailed Analysis for Drink (Hot Drink)
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0
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e/f =BMI estimate/forecast; na = not available/applicable.source: Minisrty of Economy and planning, Central
Department of Statisties, Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency, Company Information, Trade Press, BMI
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