Probability: Probability iy otherwise cited chanee that te used commonly ‘wy day fo day tite chants ef Pakistan nd India wWonin aye world HP cricket, before Ate Stave oes 9 » both ote equal - 4 qa with vain foynen ome - that By tae we enantio teeny oe The term probabi lly refors to tue Atudy ef crandomness and uuncerkaini ty « fail Frat and event : \ Consider ah | epenime nt 4, ‘theesing . ten, when teosiog a (on qe many a head (4) et tarllt). Hore tossing af a wn ua fraick ria ovent, and getting head o tat Hom Thrwsing a dic B @ tial and. qetting tor 20% Be Hoy Sorbus, an event Cohouttive events “The twtal numb ev of possible puitcomes n patty . any us brown faa’ exhaustive cevenks 1 phen oni a coin, Hi pessible atfromes of Fait ten we ** shaving Oe, gat] o oahdutive eenn thaowi ng awh ———Houtealty foetusive Avants> maid le matali Two pvents ae wuante *h one, aects lhe pohen Me 08 os" Dau ah" HF 4 Aappens Hin B will not : happen and vise sve 4 lusive Plane) = PLP) = 0. A and Baw ruta ably kXC ae Likely —evenbs: avent4 ate daid bo be, equally Two Like 4 one of tlem cannot be » ampected mn ‘| a othe. . i preferon® Cnample : a / jp, heed cot) tel ate In tossing a (ow, eget tat events. . ‘ in ey a die» ‘all the ty UE ell “Tndeperidan 5 even Baye 4 Sen aealt. ae fai to, be indetan dant one doesnot win pet au ‘alent, actual: happenin influence et ants net et a la ya coin, the event of, geting 4 tocs YU independent *h teas; thind toss and ete af 4 and B Out rneependtent ten PlAnB)= PCA) -HED dae of maahernaticot prvbabilily ov Claasi cal robaubi lity * farcoalrilety ob happening of an event pe number_vh dprmmatt ES axhautive oe Total number of favourable aes wht m= number % n> Number of; guhas tive canes Aaoms °h probability: Axiom? fer omy avent — PADZY Aavom 2° pes) =! Axiom 3: PLA, VALU Ag0-- J = PLA) #P (AZ) * _ i = Pta,) a pope / tb Lies betwa! The = value of ility must Le D pw ! we splay élPurtualty Eoetusive Avents: Two events are paid & bo mutua ohen the — oceevrcante oh on, a4 of, roles / gxelusive Hccuraen co ony clossing ,. Hee event road 0 tail mutual pelesive tai B tail ~ head 62 noe atpeat at fame tire. ance bolh Tp “otter words, {7A and au mutual exclusive evens and ; happen and visa versa. A and Bae mutualty exclusive ean) - Equal Like pan 4 events: events ate paid to be, equi if A Aappene een will Two 3 diksly 4 one Of, tlem Cannot be anpected Pele yh ; example : ; Stein, head (oc teal ae In tossing a Cow, eget Bish pyen a. tn taewing adie, ‘all the si equally Lely, events. Ageia « aventts, : Jwo avert ate \ "id te b sehen ts acbeal happening of one Rate sntluonce er dpot not efteck tue PappeningIn tossing a coin, lhe event of, qq 0 w independent ob tess, thind less and ee head in tte first toss head w te second gery a xf A ond Bs independent ther lane) = P(9) rl) Defriten of mmacthemnacticcel probability vty clasi cal probability « Frrbabilety of happentng of an event c= number of fprowable Ct Tat number of axhaustive toms m= number favourable cares nz Number of exhaustive (ares Aaums probability wht Axiom: fet ont vent Pladzo Adm 2: po)! Axiom 3+ P [a VALU AgD-- = Play thas t n . Fale P(A; ) Not? Hea | The value of profaclety must Lies between pb bo |! we ospiay elcontauns 7 whrle, b aed 4 6 black bal Tue batts alrawen at yandom. fincl the prbasi that they Both will, be, white - Fotat number of ballg=7+64+5 =18 balls Out of: 18 balls 2 balls ae daavwn ‘w leg war (Wo = et QxtT 2153). gut othe number wa of “heoeing batts out of, + white ballet 70> oar (Ta= BE a) | pOtyGl oe Probability St A b black g IA bag contains ‘tp ewtidle, Bymed 7 blue balls ad . & pallt advan @oardom. wha ie tle ppb fiat 2 batt an wed and tis black . fa i centains f aed, 02 vata 4 qieen battle. What i babi ty that a) tee balls drawer ae gir b) tht ballt drawn at’ one of gach Me re prrobterh fohat i tle Chane that a leap fon al ot qandom will Contains. 63, sfonde Picreay Bb5 > 62 weeks) dk A leap yen consist xf te "t she lug Bbb = 59 week 4.2. Dut of, there Bbb leu dey wal fave 52 Sut weoks 5 defily a be Sino and tee day exha. t rere two dt be (monday, 4arsday Chandler, edness y (wdedneday Thurs oq) 5 CTrusdory, Fada Grdey p Sakundayy, (Saturdey s Sunday) [Cundey Mendy ). ee eatot te 7 Oe rthe Last two Cares tontar we. have. > Jovouratle cases aveuratte Canes Dat rherday and hance Probab Uy = Number Pamar ef exhaurttye eaves 24 \ Thoms soba baili | Theoumt: . Re ‘ . Probability "hr impasstbUs ia, POP) 20 event, ls Ft? tg’ and the vmporei ble event 4 Perot: ins ample pate ally pyc lusty’ awe mute ie, Svez$ Z Bi taken probaly » pesop)= Lby prpesty w) pis) 1 Peg” POC: = ap)= icy ~ PU) =o: SS REPVIO” ghee 2! 4 Probate oh the complementasy event AMA wu ae by pcx) = 1 PCA) Perot, = ae “a we bnew that 4 lant A. Oe disyert ava 75 o By aking prnbabilely » Pava d= Pes? . Aa By! pepe OA, te PLAY FPCA)=! © ie pia) et PCA) Note: NIX \ness = 1- PA?en i Oat ob thee 7 Casertte Last tw stand iy Cag © Cares tontar ne we. shave, 2 Spvouratle ceises Number aE ale cant amet : Pamper Xf exhaunttve saree = y) Theorem oh proka batty \ ever, Ue ewe Probability rf van = Jmpossi be ia, PLP) =0 and tee rmpesei ble event f Prot: ‘the sarmple pate Se qu mutually oxelusive ie, svpes : by take obabrlty s, posed) = pes) [by property ws) | pes) + PCP) Pes) « > arg =nisy POP =D: REBT IC - ghee 2 Paoba Lilety oh te complamentary event AA iB quer by Pca) = 1, PCA): Paro, s* we bnew that pA and A Oe disy ava =o - — By takeng probability , Plava y= PCs) ey ae MA), ee | PLAY FPGA)! i peay et PAD Nots : MeL peas = (PADTheerm 3: Fee any pvent A and B ptane) = PC) PCAns| Pervog : Fre te aiagram » have ANB and Ann et a.tigoit avant. Alto B= (AnB) UC Ena Wow 4aking probability , , peey = ptangy +PCB0A TL BY) property ts] we pce PCAN®) = PCAN). S 2. PCA NBD. * Pt) PCAOB): recur Tasmne 4 my PAB) = pears PLAN®) os from te diagram , we have A086 and ANB OUR dlisgount even T ANB Also A= CanB)v (AaB) Wow tating probability , pray = PCADB) + PCAN) [Ry property (39] > PLAY PCANB) = PCANB) Plaats) = PCAD= PLAN): jhepaem b: th A ond p aw two avents Guth that prove that — P(Ba A) = pte) = PA) Pe _ Given ACB /; Cy, : >. prAU (BNA): Ui)p(y: eta) tPCBOA) [By proper & 0] Nee Aand BoA ae mu tually pnciwive Hence Wp) = rear tPcBaP) > pep) ptay = PLB) . P(BAA) = PLB) ~ PLAY je Adcliteon — theaaem = ‘Theouem : p(AvB)= P(A)+PLBY- PCAN where A and Bae any Ane two. events and au nok lish s porn te alagrary pate Av (Bad LE hae BoA ast dis jot events] by taking proba . caus) = PCA)? pcana). ERY property (3 - y= Peay |B rena) PY tucoure(s>] (aytPtey - PLANE? . we Pave eoptpve? +P Note yy 2RCANB DY yy ale 0%'U. plavpy= PCAD + PLP yy atleant ip and B we iidependent % tue targel © taaee anoltuy peson i te Final) the probe when Hey bolt. vw known to ait hots, where evens gout of 3 3 hho! b being kt, sal can as is) foals 9 tr teagek. A pexken pel” of, peed brown te a w Hh ta borg’ foxton { byThe tenditional pivbalsility of event A, when (ter event a Aetined aw” B has aleady heppensd p(s) : Mane) > p(B) #e- [given that, Enown that (en : p(40b) PC My)-P(8)- yor tout Replacencent contains garda while Problems : halle. Twe draces A he: aw made without 22 Lacenent - What io the prrbatilty that beth» te ais, tan. Bed, Sottion a aed ball wn Ite Poobatrility of dnawsing fost draw i pjual be A t the ili daasing ¢ aad. ball tr Paobalility ° a “mt 7 foe BP doesn Berend, drew io gs 4 : | sade bal = 20 27, = ee be, ts 1 . Pla)? % Thee fo, Poobabileky that P CAB) = p (B/,)- POA)- 2 tig ef PIab)=% Find | Hee pro bale lity % Arasing Live Contecutive ‘kin a pack of Cand in a ‘bey pe Panes? net bengal daows , the conde ts both tle halle awed U equal to a-queae aod Goluteen | Probab tiliy %, Anessing queen Grom te pot , a ee ack draw be equal be | - At P(A) = a Me ;_ . ef Aad B me indepenctent evento. Pavve that 1) Aard Bp at -inds onctien & hy) Aarnd BO wet iia and Bo at elution * indlt panclent - * have Lpefinitite] inde pandiet independ nt 1) Ginte And B “que PLAN) = pra). PCR) ple) = PCANB)+ Plane) Hove Ang and ANB ae aisjornt . ple) - PCANB)= P(ANB) - ie, PlANB) = PCB) PCANBD = PCBY~ PLAY. PLB), AINE ARB axe indo perder = pte) (1 PCAY) = Pep) PA) tere PCA )EI- PLA) pti), = PEA? PLE? Hence tte pm i) Het Az (anByv tanB) foac ANB and ANB Ate, disjoint . pray= Pl P(an’) = PCA) - PCANB) ane) +PCANB ) « bey = PCA) pta)-PtB) Atnce ARB ae indepanclec = plate PUB)) ~ play. PEBD whee PCB Y= 1-P CB) eCan’B) = pta). eB) proved. henteblo The prb- fee days ay pet sunday) mierda), Cmenday, ay, taktday), d., Coadnrday JMearedors ve Gudey, wogdned Cthuvsday, fridoy, Lriday 1 Srituadery), Cpatruday » pdanday) . Probability plans % a ia 4 : Total peal lity: Definition: . af % and, Bor. i Pate peace, np -roectuca ly ‘cf, 3 gampee Apa g aceurtve events Cand HY TAC RBI Peay = & PCAOB, ie Bayes tyeorem gl arermont < . Sa “ae AAaY a ben micteratle pg ele ve and exhowntive pvancs with pom reerpn eh ” por 8 i, ‘ait evenk gach that p cay remrae HP , peas (7%; ) pl AY,) = PUA,)- °(%,) oh: Pow bs tons Verrs ain wo soo that Ayer 4 and ethaustive evento _ ravtoally excl’ ® *thonepett ayy Bhat BAo ae algo & mutually axchnive gan) Hew fle Yann cit %epresenty He Turper pe BAP VOALUPARY BAN -UBAn) peng LPR ER P(R) = = p(BAY UBAaDBAa ‘ =7(,0 6m) 304) Tes Arise (80% = Ereoai) eteayere prsbesitty) 1) = PtBaa; J PCA; ets ‘yt conaiional | Probe tity a Bw event ..to prove r(mjp)=PCA PLEA) By due Compound tpretet bags Heeeuen pepaay = PCB) - P(A] B), > -pim): ?(%,) "7 > P(%m) = La) FO). eeaY EGA) Pe) Seca). CK) ea dary, Mente ue pret, Va Bayes Heodem? Tape 2: In a Belt aby 357 and 407 of tte dotal. of lhe. oe A bolt ib dn ‘factory machines A,B,¢ rant “respectively bh, wp-and ah ape Abffective belts ~ ry affrom, tee precus® and, la Gendt litees that ig was ee that aut the prota “manupactatd ing machenes Aypand C. Sotutton: a Bayes teeters Ferrata: ‘Ay Play) (Ai) . °(% ° oe FEY 23 ‘ Brea °(%) tet Ay be fu protabity ‘% manrepactuting tha andl B be tte prrbability ef) aifective - helt. a a or Pes r(%) |. rear. PC) P(H,) eas | pIAy-PCEA)=P975 PAY=b.25 PAS 2 0.35 \PUMgd= OPH. | PCa): %,) 20-014 ; tay) =04 | ‘P(Bp,)zo02 | PlAsd- oH )-0.0e8 > EPA)» (%) 2 D.DFNE isbox bs Faken ent at Kanclom and Kopt outside. 14 once agein a batl U daawn prom tu box, wet § probability that f&e drawn ball ts red ‘ Solution : ce Total mambor of balls tr tee bow 7 halle we hooO8 Parobability of talerng first white! and .+ aed vobally io, ie eect “AAGHNEPRD poobati lity batt tn’ tie first Aeuae *, taking wrod } and again a gd “batt > the second draw PC drawn ball is, Ke) = p(ststate 24 eed) (00 pC 1st ect & 2% sed Pltaking ene white 1m the Mdrawe y= He) = 4 ac, 9 Pl taking oni ved tp 2° Anaw) = 5 = %&.* 1 Pltaking One ded! «un 88 daa) = 8S ~ & . IC, . Plt king one red to 24 draco hO . y @ ‘ , oe P(prawn ball & aed) (4, 5 5 G Xe )+ (4. +) 1 = 22 20 Sta te Random Variable:- 7272 = A real valued function defined on thy puteome Pf the prrbabelity experiment wy o/4 called acaanclom Vatiable 4 Pathabi dishr Buon -panction ef %: (Cumulative | ey d " $ ” 6 aancooya | X4 X woav, ten Tee function Pex) defined by e¢ay= POX Sx) be called the PDE mE. Yb.“The dances variable au wh 2 type. 9) Dicbefe. 1) Continueus AV Disuete vw: \ . oe whose AGE af webb possi ble vabuel ew finite om tountabsly finite U Cal Probability, mass funtion: Tp xe 4 ‘discrete ty then” te "plays P[xex]) H called pmbabelly mats the tribe’ Plog) Ue Aadispy Hae -fortowiy 2 condi 20° 2 ee p(xi) 30 Vi n Ti) BE splay )t! yt - jet iV pena dei Pha en Coo bac) oA] ny PL x ex] = 1 Px ox) @oPbed sis eLkex]. Wi) pfag XL b].= Fb) Fa) W) pExgm]=t ¥)e REx\< ¢m7=6 Diserete wv problem: Aoa Yq) Bind the minimum valuRinomiat Sichibulven: yoy # gaidto follow — binomiat non- nage tivo values & dishibution if te assumed onty Wh ig, probability mass qunetion is gen vi AN 5 pce, Weer oo pexet)= pod = ny P 4 " pe probability > Auccent whe pty=! qtoP g ~ probability of gablere pouve mean and varient® of | pinomtal dLihi bution The pmf oh BP a plezx) pene hee FP gis t20, tear M- Means pceys Epes Be ne rqn” — l et zi (nx)! _-. nen-1)! Rit) yaa e-(n-0! 4 snp E poig? x = pt al fa ¥ nee prams =np qr cents o. [Mian =E(t) =n Naxence — “| vind= ree -feoy” EU) = Beaiped = ES [x lar) tJ poo whee 27= (XA) (gap? =u =) whoo qtps! = Lele) play + Zxperd 2 Exar) nly PP HNP: + Foe te - ra “inp Zz! (n-x)!n(n-i) Cn-2) | = ZA) ete eee 1-242 ne %A ic x wexrtx-2 ! (n-2)! = (nt) p> > Q-2)!. ga pay (ealinay trp eon) PP (qapr” “np - = ce j = ntn st (Amp . FO?) 2 nln) PrP Vasines vo) = £0) ~[E00]" = ntn- pnp (np)” 2 Win) penp- (np : > nip npeempoP Pe va) = np (=p) + fay bel qhe méan o% & binemiat aibibution 6 ard sondard davdation yd. Bottmine He dishibution , soThe. pf for RDB pevrenta pr qh Moan:enp= 5 11 Btandord deviatide : Vpnpa 2 . Voorn te, . peal prgel > Pry: np=5 3 n(2tIn @ > rand 2 Auktessec LPwOme and 6.2018 saspetnely. gaa tbe posametee pb te dishibuteon Go tution © : parseHere po) +2. 20He hea n = Pond pOI= BC). P.4° = p.yot aN. : POD =5Co- phy? o.2one ste) O , PQ. o20ue tw.phg © po)“ 0.W09 ay oEy 0.2048 o.4oIb eas 3 pa825q- ps 025C!-p? p= b.25+08 lbp - p+o.05 p=e-25 pla5yaPre & 1px O38 125 Cishibution: dishirbution goid t pile: , pation K is it agsumes only non-negative values. and th ability mast ee bs | Pepa’) prton Doe sop ted 2s A APO ™ Pltew) =p0o = SF z how AB. Frown at pacarielee and Acmgan=9P Avewage pd obithevariand ase, agual. Ha peitton e items this PD mean a Tha foltewng Be Some %H tee exarnpte , hore Lowean bbe applied , rnumber "of deport Lat deaths aus to a nan AirlOe Hew 19 probe ety mngueed ~ on ortor h)numbermistakes Comrccecd SAPS person Av uf ty and A Additive — preportyy 4 with — parameters Atay 2 nde pendent poisson AV i pessten ay with poserme tees AytAe XX Poisson -fanquency, dishibuteon ; Wo expeeteel Number Bf x Auceens w N ox gack consisting of “We hiale 26 qren by nopesz] = Npoos Mf eA a" Prater Didsbubon Problem ag is a pRissen AV P(x =2) = 0-2, Find Pixs). auch that PUS=0.3 Solutton : The pmd of Pe bs given be - Pr=0) = pads oe x! Ds PUX= Nees 0 P(xea) s0.22 €8a* ts 33) . ar eM, 4, Ww rr =o—_. 4 evAyir 0.3 3 1P2 0.2 PUx-0) = Plx=0) = 0.24Continous dis Bt DULY ap xu 4@ continuous Y fue aisbibutiont® - ay wnifer™ auprbution( pactangutes ) 2) Etpol : gy Nownal x pirboutt oO a + aid have & Conti nun us tun fen w nen by ApributiOr« : Since trtat probatittty in 1 we have F de ate! b a b ww, (kate ? kithe =? klb-a) =! ° oe ba L4G = Ta pace p jothewis? » Cumulative distibuti ve unction chin butive aunttion qishrbu tive qunttion ew) firm bg . 0. 7 we ALA peers |-228 “ea” acne b to bese —_ Te pa oh e union vostake. X (-a,ar gee 5 acne a o j othuwis ¢ “| pment generat qousating gunction oF = EH mcere fe fe aes [2 1, elas ce) : pale Je (eat com gg 6% VS nee m=i . ) probabititiy that Fp.%e2. HW) xoR WY TEKL A Solution + Te Pah %§ @ ep wninntid intewal (a/b) tt qier= palach b-a@ Hee az0,bsto- 400 [ O<%X< to o>; olhowwise i) pega ef fla tf, ) p(xs2) Pumas fae tit, lo = [tek i) plaré) at gor ae (qean iE! j @ vey 4 Wi) pe gexca) = faroaxe els 3 p(aencay= % . . Dig xh uniformly date buted CAV with meant and vaniente > 4, + Find P(xco) Solution: ‘Mean =1 bta 2 Mean = bia -) y bea=2 30) > voaience = Ys ~ (ba Sy. yp Ub-ay Vauente =) 3 jan ad (b-ay = 16, 3 b-az4302) W+(o) S 2-6 3[b=3 , (@ dhe 3-424 3-a=1 3faz- ° ° 4) = ay 24am pleco) = f gt dx = 4 ° ‘o jotheuds ZL fdxet ; < f 4 f xe TE ek (02Ka a te nc menae = at gtenchion i piven by ws e = : A ODS 4, —mexem and o>0 Sandarol ap Nowmat variate * Area ef, te ye! normal eve i A nomat dlitribution hat mean B= 20 and Standard deviation O= Io. Find pCIbS XS 4d) - Solution : A standaad normal youate oo given by U4 xis; z= 1a IpX=Ho; Z ner? | 20-9 pee lo te Pl pcx enor = Pl-0-8 S$ =8 By er oon Te xp(-0.5 Czeoy + PLL z42) =Pl pega vent PCOeZe?) = ONAIS + O77? 06607 pl pe x2 HO) =O O87 (An elocksical -frum ronafac tints Fight bulbs that have a Life, befre bain out, that & ne WR means eb heune romp and $0 % fohet - Find 1)The pete. that 4 bu tb burns than @3y has vi) The pab. that * bath burnt moe fas. s petwan 718 and 83H Goluition bet mian> p89.) SO.=o SHO clandend normal vases1) plx>eay) =? ~ 83H -600 He P(x 50.65) = 5 pC OKz60-85 > 8B sh 20. Hi = 0.5~- 0.3023 17 L 20.14 _ To nw yy PC1TELK 834) Os 71 - Goo af xe7e, 7° extol ce Ko Ip xX 4BH, T= OSS p(-v.5sbLZ4 0.85) om He ore ~ P(-0.55 x20) +P( 02xL0.86 ) = P(OX 220.55) + PLO CZLO.8S ) = 0.2086 +8. 30232 Plossl z 20.86) =O-5MI The = Qverage goational crainfatt ig Ieeinches Wh Prob that & 92er what bs tbe “ mb, 4. tlent place will between 20 and tee Jaton uw 24 wehes Gottion * leans Pate, SO=O=h- Qeanderd notmat vosiate 4 7p - Xe © xHlb Ci “yO o a @ Plreexc2H) =? ee a ale rf X=20, 2 = soEf x=24, zidtte a P(e )< ay = plesz 22) Plo zer) = O-WT72 —D.3413 PUIeLze2) = 001359"[AREAS UNDER NORMAL CURVE] TABLE OF AREAS z x a 3 Toe 0438 9832 ini7 1591 1950 2291 2611 2310 3186 3438 3665 3868 “19 3207 434s 463 564 469 719 ama 3826 ‘Sot 4996 2920 4940 4955 966, 4975 3902 on 91 “4993, 4995, $997 4998 4998 09 399 5000, ny one 87 ass Vas 19s Pa 2642 2939 3212 46 3ot6 358 4066 4222 4357 474 4573 4656 476 4768 4530 68 4898 m2 aoa 2956 967 396 aon 4007 491 14994 4995 4998 39 10 si7 ‘910 1293, 664 2019 2337 2673 2967 3238 pass 3708 3907, ‘0m 4236 370 ae 3382 64 on ams 34 3160 0557 948 131 700 2084 2369 2703 2998 53268 3508 3n9 3925 099 (2251 ae 4495 4591 67 4738 793 4838 3375 904 07 494s 1959 969 “7 on 4988 3992 4996 4996 9997 4998 4999 ey 4999 5000, 319 9596 0987 1368 1736 2088 2a 2734 3003 S29 3531 3109 344 au 4265 394 4503 4599 678 and 4798 ead 079 995 909 4946 4960 970 3978 aes 989 9092 4994 9995 97 4998 499 1999 5000, Tas 0636 1026 1406 im. 203 dass 2764 3051 3315 3354 370 3962 au an 4406 sis 4603 686 3750 4303 aus ‘asi $900 931 4948 961 aon 4979 asa 4919 92 2996 4997 4998 py 4999 5000 ro 10675 1068 144 1908 as a6 2794 3078 3340 357) 3790 3e00 4107 an ane 4525 4616 4693 456 808 850 4 491) a2 4959 4962 on. 079 985, 4989 4992 4995 2996 997 4998 a3 ona 1103, 1480 aaa 2190 2517 2m “106 3365 3599 3810 3997 ‘a1, 4306, 409 4535 9625 4699 ‘4761 as ase aun 4913, 4934 4951 96 4973 980 4986 4990 4993, 4995 4996 397 4998 99 4999 5000, 359 0753 114i 1517 1879 am 2549 2652 3133 3309 3a 3830 aos 4177 319 aaa 4545 4633, ‘706 61 417 57 “4890 4916 4936 4932 ‘964 4974 4981 4986 4990 2993 4995, 3997 4998 4998 99 ay ‘3999 000