TALLER No.

1 PRONSTICOS
La directora de trfico de una empresa de fabricacin de cortadoras de csped de tamao me
reuni en la siguiente tabla los datos de los envos de los ltimos diez aos:
AO CDIGO GRUPO ENE FEB MAR ABR MAY

2010 10103010 G1 4.779 12.523 12.500 15.119 21.371

2010 10103020 G2 6.578 5.427 8.656 6.654 8.483

2010 10103110 G3 1.690 5.558 2.381 4.669 6.320

2010 10103120 G4 1.690 5.558 2.381 4.669 6.320

2010 10103210 G5 4.129 1.191 4.092 3.793 3.507

2010 10103310 G6 4.129 1.191 4.092 3.793 3.507

2009 10103010 G1 4.445 11.396 11.345 13.456 15.388

2009 10103020 G2 5.855 4.776 8.310 4.791 6.532

2009 10103110 G3 1.589 4.225 1.715 3.269 4.614

2009 10103120 G4 1.319 3.891 2.239 4.249 5.436

2009 10103210 G5 3.634 894 2.988 3.452 2.981

2009 10103310 G6 2.973 1.132 3.151 3.680 3.297

2008 10103010 G1 3.468 10.827 8.282 12.245 14.927

2008 10103020 G2 5.036 4.108 7.978 3.737 4.899

2008 10103110 G3 1.303 3.127 1.458 2.452 3.830

2008 10103120 G4 1.214 2.763 2.150 3.995 4.512

2008 10103210 G5 2.617 716 2.720 2.451 2.534

2008 10103310 G6 2.082 1.087 2.427 3.423 2.968

2007 10103010 G1 3.018 9.745 6.626 11.511 11.046

2007 10103020 G2 4.785 3.451 7.659 3.551 4.067

2007 10103110 G3 1.121 2.721 1.342 2.305 2.796

2007 10103120 G4 1.105 2.156 1.505 3.276 3.384

2007 10103210 G5 2.330 674 2.068 1.741 1.774

2007 10103310 G6 1.853 914 2.039 2.705 2.464

2006 10103010 G1 2.415 8.966 5.699 10.936 8.837

2006 10103020 G2 3.781 2.796 6.664 3.090 3.132

2006 10103110 G3 841 2.313 980 2.167 2.293

2006 10103120 G4 929 1.919 1.250 2.851 2.742

2006 10103210 G5 2.191 493 1.614 1.567 1.704

2006 10103310 G6 1.798 851 1.632 2.219 1.750

2005 10103010 G1 2.295 6.277 5.244 9.624 8.219

2005 10103020 G2 2.912 2.014 6.465 2.967 2.694

2005 10103110 G3 791 1.620 824 1.951 1.904

2005 10103120 G4 809 1.382 1.150 2.623 2.194

2005 10103210 G5 1.950 449 1.550 1.317 1.313

2005 10103310 G6 1.277 758 1.551 2.131 1.365

2004 10103010 G1 2.135 4.771 4.510 9.047 6.658

2004 10103020 G2 2.709 1.793 4.591 2.433 2.479

2004 10103110 G3 760 1.151 759 1.366 1.505

2004 10103120 G4 599 1.272 817 2.414 1.756

2004 10103210 G5 1.755 405 1.333 1.159 1.143

2004 10103310 G6 1.035 728 1.102 1.982 1.311

2003 10103010 G1 1.623 3.960 4.014 7.238 5.993

2003 10103020 G2 2.574 1.686 4.086 2.215 1.835

2003 10103110 G3 654 1.117 699 1.271 1.189

2003 10103120 G4 456 1.031 646 2.342 1.282

2003 10103210 G5 1.317 393 1.120 858 1.063

2003 10103310 G6 766 576 838 1.428 1.010

2002 10103010 G1 1.234 3.446 3.172 5.719 5.334

2002 10103020 G2 1.854 1.400 3.760 1.595 1.322

2002 10103110 G3 615 1.039 595 1.144 880

2002 10103120 G4 415 753 537 2.155 1.180

2002 10103210 G5 1.001 276 997 678 1.000

2002 10103310 G6 675 519 646 1.300 748

2001 10103010 G1 938 3.205 2.855 4.690 3.894

2001 10103020 G2 1.539 1.204 3.497 1.548 1.098

2001 10103110 G3 486 936 435 1.064 704

2001 10103120 G4 391 648 376 1.746 1.086

2001 10103210 G5 731 235 698 536 700

2001 10103310 G6 540 395 517 1.209 614

Ella piensa que una previsin precisa de las ventas le ayudara a planificar sus necesidades de transpo
Empleando los primeros cuarto aos como datos base para la estimacin, y reservando los del ltimo
a. Efectuar un anlisis de la demanda, a fin de garantizar la veracidad de la informacin
b. Evaluar el modelo de pronstico que mejor describa el comportamiento de la demanda.
c. Aplicar el modelo seleccionado, para calcular el pronstico de la demanda para el ao 2011
s de csped de tamao medio

JUN JUL AGO SEP OCT NOV DIC

12.161 13.965 11.619 3.385 4.120 12.721 9.710

4.534 11.253 9.406 4.681 5.775 9.311 8.164

7.195 7.349 6.310 2.813 3.630 2.237 4.652

7.195 7.349 6.310 2.813 4.024 2.237 4.652

4.263 3.802 4.164 3.200 2.405 1.841 3.308

4.263 3.802 4.164 3.200 2.405 1.841 3.308

11.067 11.172 8.715 2.945 3.456 9.160 7.963

3.174 7.990 6.773 3.605 4.101 8.194 7.675

6.476 5.733 6.058 2.392 3.522 2.103 3.955

6.332 7.056 5.995 1.970 3.179 1.947 3.908

3.368 3.498 3.706 2.784 1.997 1.768 2.515

3.709 3.270 3.915 3.104 1.973 1.639 2.945

8.965 9.273 6.188 2.415 3.111 8.428 7.008

2.794 7.032 6.299 2.596 3.404 6.064 6.064

6.217 5.447 4.423 1.986 3.311 1.578 3.006

5.573 5.081 4.916 1.773 2.385 1.733 2.971

2.796 2.764 2.965 1.977 1.538 1.556 1.786

3.598 2.551 3.641 2.980 1.776 1.476 2.445

6.366 8.624 5.693 1.763 2.427 8.091 6.238

2.320 5.696 5.985 2.103 2.485 5.094 5.216

5.036 4.630 3.185 1.748 2.649 1.168 2.495

4.403 4.878 4.474 1.561 2.099 1.387 2.645

2.713 2.046 2.461 1.384 1.123 1.276 1.286

3.347 2.220 2.622 2.116 1.652 1.196 1.932

5.284 7.935 5.124 1.287 2.209 5.988 4.679

1.856 4.899 5.387 2.019 1.988 4.738 4.278

4.432 4.029 2.294 1.224 2.199 935 2.246

3.919 3.903 4.206 1.265 1.554 1.277 2.460

2.198 1.555 1.723 1.274 989 1.238 1.055

3.046 2.021 1.862 1.990 1.388 1.077 1.449

3.911 6.825 3.946 1.197 1.856 4.192 4.352

1.782 4.753 5.118 1.737 1.810 3.554 3.851

4.167 3.788 1.996 1.163 1.584 795 1.775

3.724 3.084 3.576 1.038 1.275 1.137 2.264

1.693 1.431 1.431 1.109 960 954 1.013

2.285 1.860 1.360 1.453 1.333 830 1.406

2.738 5.392 2.999 1.138 1.652 3.731 3.395

1.711 4.611 4.402 1.442 1.467 2.986 3.312

3.709 2.804 1.657 826 1.220 740 1.580

3.278 2.375 3.433 935 1.161 819 1.653

1.609 1.045 1.389 1.032 720 678 770

1.691 1.544 966 1.366 1.187 623 1.125

2.519 4.745 2.310 877 1.421 2.799 2.852

1.660 3.735 3.522 1.313 1.203 2.628 2.484

3.339 2.328 1.177 587 1.050 607 1.185

2.951 1.877 3.296 870 964 615 1.158

1.288 857 1.209 774 555 631 717

1.438 1.483 841 1.312 986 449 968

2.217 3.986 2.195 746 1.251 2.240 2.282

1.544 3.250 2.924 1.261 1.059 1.840 1.913

2.872 2.119 930 552 924 438 1.079

2.538 1.352 3.132 618 675 456 869

1.070 789 1.040 666 400 600 603

1.280 1.409 606 1.194 908 414 756

1.885 3.468 1.669 627 914 1.815 2.054

1.406 2.373 2.252 1.035 1.017 1.546 1.856

2.097 1.971 661 409 786 368 1.047

2.310 1.001 2.663 439 621 393 800

782 632 760 567 352 462 501

909 1.226 552 860 809 381 704

r sus necesidades de transporte.
y reservando los del ltimo para comprobar la precisin de los resultados:
e la informacin
o de la demanda.
nda para el ao 2011