Scenario Building for Hong Kong

ix

xiii

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3
9
15
18
2 21
21
25
29
34
3 37
37
44
51
4 55
55
57
61
65
70
76
vi

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81

82

84

2 87

87

90

92

92

3 93

93

95

98

99

100

4 103

103

106

108

109

110

5 113

113

116

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1 121
121
122
122
2 127
127
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129
3 131
131
132
132
4 135
135
136
137

139

141
1 143
2 147
3 151
4 153
5 163


trend-based approach

vision-based approach

scenario-based approach

scenario building

Rand CorporationShell

2014 2015
2040 2045
2047
2047

2040 2045

 xi

Scenario Building for Hong Kong

xii
 xiii

AMR antimicrobial resistance

APEC Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation

ASEAN Association of Southeast Asian Nations

FTAAP Free Trade Area of the Asia Pacific

GATT General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade

GDP Gross Domestic Product

IPCC Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

IOM International Organization for Migration

IMF International Monetary Fund

OECD Organization for Economic Co-operation and

Development

RCEP Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership

SDR Special Drawing Right

TPP Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement

TTIP Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership

UNEP United Nations Environment Programme

WTO World Trade Organization

xiv


mapping

1.1

1.1.1
information and communications technology
International Telecommunication Union
2016 34 47%
81% 40% 36 49.4%
mobile-cellular 70
78%

Internet of
Things

Facebook
LinkedIn
CourseraedX
4

1.1.6

1. International Telecommunication Union. (2016). ITU releases 2016 ICT figures.
Retrieved from http://www.itu.int/en/mediacentre/Pages/2016-PR30.aspx
2. World Economic Forum. (2016). Digital media and society. Retrieved from http://
www3.weforum.org/docs/WEFUSA_DigitalMediaAndSociety_Report2016.pdf

1.1.2

social media

1. The New York Times. (2016, February 3). Social media: Destroyer or creator?
Retrieved from http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/03/opinion/social-media-
destroyer-or-creator.html?_r=0
2. World Economic Forum (2016). The impact of digital content: Opportunities and
risks of creating and sharing information online. Retrieved from http://www3.
weforum.org/docs/GAC16/Social_Media_Impact_Digital.pdf

1.1.3

5V
volumevelocityvariety
veracityvalue

1.1.4

1.1.11.1.3
3D

i.

robosourcing

1.1.5

ii.

iii.

3D

iv.

zero
marginal cost

1. Foreign Affairs. (2016, January). The fourth industrial revolution.
2. 2016 2 22 http://
world.people.com.cn/n1/2016/0222/c1002-28137772.html
3. Brynjolfsson, E., McAfee, A. (2016). The second machine age: Work, progress
and prosperity in a time of brilliant technologies. New York: W.W. Norton & Co.
4. Gore, A. (2013). The future: Six drivers of global change. New York: Random
House.
5. Rifkin J. (2011). The third industrial revolution: How lateral pwer is transforming
energy, the economy, and the world. New York: Palgrave Macmillan.

1.1.5

i.

a world
without work

ii.

digital footprint

iii.

micropowers

1. Thompson, D. (2015). A world wothout work. The Atlantic, July/August, 5061.
2. Naim, M. (2013). The end of power: From boardrooms to battlefields and churches
to states, why being in charge isnt what it used to be. New York: Basic Books.

1.2

1.2.1
International Energy Agency2014 2015
World Energy Outlook 2040 2013

2020 0.9 0.3

Organization for Economic Co-operation and
Development OECD

U.S. Energy Information
Administration EIA2015 2017
2028
2019 2009

10

1. International Energy Agency. (2015). World Energy Outlook 2015 Factsheet.
Retrieved from http://www.worldenergyoutlook.org/media/weowebsite/2015/
WEO2015_Factsheets.pdf
2. U.S. Energy Information Administration. (2015). Annual Energy Outlook 2015.
Retrieved from https://www.eia.gov/outlooks/aeo/pdf/0383(2015).pdf
3. 2016 2015 http://
www.statistics.gov.hk/pub/B11000022015AN15B0100.pdf

1.2.2

2014 2040 2012

 11

1. 2013 2 6
http://www.cciee.org.cn/Detail.aspx?newsId=6480&TId=231

1.2.3

2050 73 97

2025 18
2030 50% 2050
70%

20 60%

12

1. 2014 2013 https://
wedocs.unep.org/rest/bitstreams/14580/retrieve
2. United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs. (2015). International
decade for action water for life 20052015. Retrieved from http://www.un.org/
waterforlifedecade/

1.2.4

Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change

IPCC 2014

80

1950

0.3C 4.8C

21 2015
2C
1.5C
 13

1,000

Scott Pruitt

28 4
1

1. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. (2014). Climate change 2014:
Synthesis report. Retrieved from http://www.ipcc.ch/report/ar5/syr/
2. United Nations Conference on Climate Change COP21/CMP11. (2015). Retrieved
from http://www.cop21.gouv.fr/en/page-daccueil-v2/

1.2.5

2000 2009 1980 1989

2000 2012
120 29

2011
14

1. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction. (2017). Disaster statistics.
Retrieved from http://www.uniSDR.org/we/inform/disaster-statistics
2. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction. (2017).What is disaster risk
reduction? Retrieved from http://www.uniSDR.org/who-we-are/what-is-drr

1.2.6

United Nations Environment Programme UNEP 2016

Emissions Gap Report2030

 15

1. United Nations Environment Programme. (2015). UNEP 2014 annual report.
Retrieved from http://wedocs.unep.org/handle/20.500.11822/9420
2. Environmental Protection Department. (2015). Air pollution control strategies.
Retrieved from http://www.epd.gov.hk/epd/english/environmentinhk/air/prob_
solutions/strategies_apc.html
3. United Nations Environment Programme (2016). The emissions gap report 2016,
Retrieved from https://wedocs.unep.org/rest/bitstreams/44519/retrieve

1.3

1.3.1 /

non-communicable disease
2008 5,700 3,600
63%
2010
2020 15% 4,400

80%
2030

16

1. World Health Organization. (2014). Global status report on noncommunicable
diseases 2014. Retrieved from http://www.who.int/nmh/publications/ncd-status-
report-2014/en/

1.3.2 /

H1N1 SARSMERS

1. SARSMERS
2.
H7N9
H1N1
3.

4.

1.3.3

 17

1. Sands, P., Mundaca-Shah, C., & Dzau, V. J. (2016). The neglected dimension of
global security: A framework for countering infectious-disease crises. The New
England Journal of Medicine, 374, 12811287.

1.3.3

antimicrobial resistance AMR

AMR AMR
AMR

6% 20

AMR AMR

18

AMR AMR

1. World Health Organization. (2014). Antimicrobial resistance: Global report on
surveillance 2014. Retrieved from http://www.who.int/drugresistance/documents/
surveillancereport/en/
2. World Health Organization. (2016). Antimicrobial resistance: Fact sheet (updated
September 2016). Retrieved from http://www.who.int/mediacentre/factsheets/fs194/
en/

1.4

1.4.1

Ronald Inglehart

N Net Generation Don Tapscott

 19

N
N

1. Inglehart, R. F. (2008). Changing values among western publics from 1970 to 2006.
West European Politics, 31, 130146.
2. Tapscott, D. (2009). Grown up digital: How the net generation is changing your
world. New York: McGraw-Hill.

1.4.2
Populism

Cosmopolitanism

20

1. Inglehart, R., & Norris, P. (2016). Trump, Brexit, and the rise of populism: Economic
have-nots and cultural backlash. HKS Working Paper No. RWP16-026. Retrieved
from https://ssrn.com/abstract=2818659
2. Moffitt, B. (2016). The global rise of populism: Performance, political style, and
representation. Stanford: Stanford University Press.
 21

2.1

2.1.1

2.1.2

22

1. Department of Sociology, & Public Policy Research Centre, The Chinese University
of Hong Kong. (2013). Concept list: Globalization. Retrieved from http://www.cuhk.
edu.hk/hkiaps/pprc/LS/globalization/7_conceptlist.htm
2. Randers, J. (2012). 2052: A global forecast for the next forty years. Vermont:
Chelsea Green Publishing.
3. Piketty, T. (2014). Capital in the twenty-first century. Cambridge, MA: Harvard
University Press.

2.1.2

( )

2.1.3

2015 73 2003
10 6044 16%12 10%7
 23

3,800 9%6 3,400 5% 3

5,800 3,900
14 13 19% 18%

1.24%
1.18% 8,300 2030 85 2050
97 2015 2050
13
9
15%
2.1

60
2015 60 9
12% 3.3% 60
24% 2050
60 21
2015 2050 60 66%
80 2015 1 2,500 2050 4 3,400

1. United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division,
2015. World population prospects: The 2015 revision, key findings and advance
24

tables. Working Paper No. ESA/P/WP.241. Retrieved from https://esa.un.org/unpd/

wpp/Publications/Files/Key_Findings_WPP_2015.pdf

2.1.4

2013 2.32 7,200

7,100 20 3%
2010 2013 1,000 76%

2015
International Organization for Migration
IOM 100 IOM 2015 5,300

Schengen Agreement

 25

1. 2014 https://www.
iom.int/files/live/sites/iom/files/What-We-Do/docs/SG-report-Intl-Migration-and-
Development-2013-A_68_190-CH.pdf
2. International Organization for Migration. (Various years). World migration report.
Retrieved from https://www.iom.int/world-migration-report-2015
3. Council of the European Union. (2016). Proposal for a Regulation of the European
Parliament and of the Council amending Regulation (EC) No 562/2006 as regards
the reinforcement of checks against relevant databases at external borders. Retrieved
from http://www.statewatch.org/news/2016/mar/eu-council-checks-external-borders-
general-approach-6673-16.pdf

2.2

2.2.1

liberal democracy

failed
state

vetocracy

26

1. Fukuyama, F. (2014). Political order and political decay: From the industrial
revolution to the globalization of democracy. New York: Farrar, Straus and Giroux.
2. Bell, D. (2015). The China model: Political meritocracy and the limits of democracy.
Princeton: Princeton University Press.
3. 2014

2.2.2
1648 Peace of Westphalia
Treaties

World Trade
Organization WTO

G8

 27

2.2.3
non-state actors

1. Nye, J. (2011). The future of power. New York: Public Affairs.
2. 2014 5
http://www.faobserver.com/Newsinfo.aspx?id=10293

2.2.4

28

2015 9

1. EUROPOL (European Law Enforcement Agency). (2015). European union terrorism
situation and trend report 2015. Retrieved from https://www.europol.europa.eu/
content/european-union-terrorism-situation-and-trend-report-2015

2.2.5

1. Thomas, S. (2005). The global resurgence of religion and the transformation of
 29

international relations: The struggle for the soul of the twenty-first century. New
York: Palgrave Macmillan.
2. 2011
9 http://myy.cass.cn/kxwsl/201203/t20120328_1973239.shtml

2.3

2.3.1

WTO 1995 1948 General

Agreement on Tariffs and Trade GATT
WTO 164 2016 7 29
WTO

2006
WTO
WTO

i. Free Trade Area of the Asia Pacific FTAAP

Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation APEC
APEC 2014 11 FTAAP

APEC 21

ii. Regional Comprehensive Economic

Partnership RCEP

Association of South East Asian Nations ASEAN

2012
RCEP RCEP 35
40% RCEP
TPP RCEP 2017
30

iii. Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement

TPP
TPP


TPP 40%
GDP TPP
TPP

TPP
RCEP

iv. Transatlantic Trade and Investment

Partnership TTIP

TTIP
2027 0.5 0.4
TTIP 60

2015 10
2017

TTIP

WTO

1. World Trade Organization. (2015). World trade report 2015. Retrieved from https://
www.WTO.org/english/res_e/booksp_e/world_trade_report15_e.pdf
2. Williams, B. R. (2013). Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) countries: Comparative
trade and economic analysis. Wahington, DC: Congressional Research
 31

Service. Retrieved from http://digitalcommons.ilr.cornell.edu/cgi/viewcontent.

cgi?article=2020&context=key_workplace
3. European Commission, Directorate-General for Trade. (2016). Inside TTIP.
Retrieved from http://trade.ec.europa.eu/doclib/docs/2015/july/tradoc_153635.pdf
4. 2017RCEP TPP
3 5253
5. Goodman M., & Remler, D. (2017, January 24). Abandoning the TPP: What this
means for the US, its allies amd global trade. Today. Retrieved from http://www.
todayonline.com/commentary/abandoning-TPP-what-means-us-its-allies-and-global-
trade

2.3.2

BRIC [Brazil] [Russia] [India] [China]

2001 2008 2011 South
AfricaBRICS
2000 8.2%2015
22.4%2008

2014 7 Fortaleza Declaration

VISTAVietnam
IndonesiaSouth AfricaTurkeyArgentina

1. United Nations, Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Statistics Division.
32

(2015). National accounts statistics: Main aggregates and detailed tables 2014. New
York: United Nations.
2. BRICS Information Centre. (2014). The 6th BRICS Summit: Fortaleza Declaration.
Retrieved from http://www.brics.utoronto.ca/docs/140715-leaders.html
3. World Bank. (2017). Data: United States. Retrieved from http://data.worldbank.org/
country/united-states?view=chart

2.3.3
2008 2009

30
2008 GDP
3.2% 10.1%2016 19.5

2009

2016
GDP 91.7%
176.3%135.4%128.9%109.3% 109.2%

1. 2013 10 13 http://www.
news.gov.hk/tc/record/html/2013/10/20131013_220350.shtml
2. 2016 1 8
 33

http://eu.mofcom.gov.cn/article/ddfg/d/201601/20160101230194.
shtml
3. Eurostat (2016, July 22). Government debt up to 91.7% of GDP in euro area.
Retrieved from http://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/documents/2995521/7573561/2-
22072016-AP-EN.pdf/16cdaec5-3f1c-4cab-a8cf-954b917e04a9

2.3.4
2008

International Monetary Fund IMF2015 1980
2012 160

1. Dabla-Norris, E., Kochhar, K., Suphaphiphat, N., Ricka, F., & Tsounta, E. (2015).
Causes and consequences of income inequality: A global perspective. Washington,
DC: IMF Staff Discussion Note, International Monetary Fund.

2.3.5

IMF 2015
34

Special Drawing Right SDR

GDP

2.4

2.4.1

2050 GDP

2010 31 GDP
87% 2050 90% 45%
2030

2030
40% 30%
2015 GDP GDP 82%
2050

 35

1. Kohli, H. S., Sharma, A., & Sood, A. (2011). Asia 2050: Realizing the Asian century.
Los Angeles: Sage.

2.4.2

G8
G20

TPP
TTIP

TPP

2.4.3

TPP
TPP
36

1. Bader, J. A., & Pollack, J. D. (2014, January 23). Return to the Asia rebalance and
the U.S.-China relationship. Retrieved from http://www.brookings.edu/research/
papers/2014/01/asia-rebalance-us-china-relationship-pollack-bader
 37

3.1

3.1.1

1978 9.8%
8.7%
1.7
2030
2012
2015 patents in force

30%

38

1. World Intellectual Property Organization. (2017). Statistical country profiles: China.
Retrieved from http://www.wipo.int/ipstats/en/statistics/country_profile/profile.
jsp?code=CN

3.1.2

2012 11

 39

2021
2049

3.1.3

2013 21

400

57

40

1. 2015
21 http://www.sdpc.gov.cn/
xwzx/xwfb/201503/t20150328_669089.html

3.1.4

2013 11

 41

1. 2013 11 12
http://news.xinhuanet.com/politics/2013-11/15/c_118164235.htm

3.1.5
2001

2002

2005

2007 7.8
2013
1.49%
2014 12 2 5 6


2014

2015 IMF SDR IMF
SDR

2015 5 15

2015
7.23 10.4% 7362
294.4% 15871 84.1%
2013 11
42

1. 20152015 http://
www.pbc.gov.cn/huobizhengceersi/214481/214511/214695/2879200/index.html

3.1.6

1978 1.7 2015 7.7
18% 56% 1978 2013 193 658 2,173
20,113 2.8%
18% 36%

2015 31,195
11,422
2015 500
88 300 500 92 2030
50 17
2014 54%
62%

 43

80%
60%

2014 2014 2020

2015 10

1. 20142020 2014 http://news.
xinhuanet.com/house/bj/2014-03-17/c_126274610.htm
2. 2016 2 29 2015
http://www.stats.gov.cn/tjsj/zxfb/201602/
t20160229_1323991.html

3.1.7

2012 2 5,600 2022 3 5,700

2022 6 22 9

GDP

44

2,300 2014
1.9
1990 67% 2010
11%
2020

3.2

3.2.1

1982
2013 11

 45

3.2.2

1979 2015

2015 1.4% 2.1%

0 14 16.5% 65 10.1%
2050 65 3.5
2014 15 64 73.5%
36.2%
2014 0 19
114.76 119.16 20 24 106.832020
2400
20

14.2

3.2.3

46

3.2.4

2007

2015

 47

1. 2014

3.2.5
2013 11

2015 11
2030 2030
2005 60% 65%

3.2.6

48

627 230 2015 9 3

30
2020 2050

GDP 2%
GDP 4%
2016 7.6%
2016 9,543.5

2015

 49

1979

1. 2015 5 http://www.
mod.gov.cn/auth/2015-05/26/content_4586723.htm

3.2.7

55 2010
8.49%
64% 22,000 19,000

2014 9
12

50

1949

1. 2014 http://cpc.
people.com.cn/n/2014/1222/c64387-26254961.html

3.2.8

1993 2008

2015 11 7
 51

3.3

3.3.1

2015 12 23

52

1. 2015 12 23
http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/2015-12/23/content_5026691.htm

3.3.2

IMF

3.3.3

1999 2008
2009 2010 2020

 53

2015

3.3.4

21

2015

4.1

4.1.1

2014 81.2 2064 87.0
86.9 92.5

2016 44.3 2064 53.5

65 2016 16% 2064 36%15 64

73% 55%15 11% 9%

65 2014 116 2034 120

230 2014 2064 30 260

15
2016 58.7% 2064 48.6%
2016 373 2064 831 5
4 15 65
15 64

56

1. 2015 20152064 http://www.
statistics.gov.hk/pub/B1120015062015XXXXB0100.pdf
2. 2015 http://www.
hkpopulation.gov.hk/public_engagement/pdf/PPbooklet2015-CHI.pdf
3. 2014
http://www.fstb.gov.hk/tb/tc/report-of-the-working-group-on-longterm-fiscal-
planning-phase1.htm

4.1.2

150 2011 4 1

2004 49,800 41,500

2005 57,100 38,800

2006 65,600 59,600

2007 70,900 44,700

2008 78,800 39,100

2009 82,100 41,400

2010 88,600 48,800

2011 95,500 41,100

2012 91,600 52,100

2013 57,100 47,900

2014 62,300 43,500

2015 59,900 38,300

 57

2006 6 1,000
2015 3,305

4.2

4.2.1

1997

2014 9 12 2017
2015 6 18

4.2.22047

2047

2047

2047

58

2047

2047

4.2.3

4.2.4

2017
1,200

 59

4.2.5
32
151

2002

2005

31

4.2.6

2002

2002

60

4.2.7

4,100
470

4.2.8

2004
2007
2002

 61

4.3

4.3.1

1997

2014 6

1. 2014 6
http://www.locpg.hk/jsdt/2014-06/10/c_126601135.htm
62

4.3.2

2016

4.3.3

 63

1. 2014 http://www.cmab.gov.
hk/tc/issues/regional_cooperation.htm

4.3.4

2001
445 32% 2015 4,580
77.3%
1986 782 1.8% 2015 17,953
34.8%

64

1. 2014 /
CSD/1/2014 http://www.cpu.gov.hk/doc/tc/commission_strategic_
development/csd_1_2014c.pdf
2. 2016 2016 http://www.
statistics.gov.hk/pub/B10100032016AN16B0100.pdf

4.3.5

2011 175,100 12

2013 88,000
2.5%
2006 2015 3,305
/

1. 2011
http://www.statistics.gov.hk/pub/B11301572011XXXXB0100.pdf
 65

4.4

4.4.1
1999
Asias World City

2013

4.4.2

2017 23 Heritage Foundation

1.2

2016 5

2016
2012 2014 2014

66

2015

2015 6 2015
25

4.4.3

GDP
93% GDP 2014
1.3%

2014 GDP 57.5%

2009
 67

2014 GDP 5%
1.6% 1.2%
1%

2014 GDP 52.4%
2007 55.1%
2014
40.2% 2007 42.1%

2007 2500
2013

2015

1. 2007

2. 2014

3. 2015 2015 4
http://www.statistics.gov.hk/pub/
B71504FA2015XXXXB0100.pdf
4. 2016 2016 http://www.
statistics.gov.hk/pub/B10100032016AN16B0100.pdf

4.4.4

68

900

16,000

40%
60%

70%

2018

 69

1998
21

2015 data.gov.
hk

2012 2013

1. 2011 2030
http://info.threerunwaysystem.com/pdf/tc/mp2030_full_tc.pdf
2. 2014
CB(1)1100/13-14(08) http://www.legco.
gov.hk/yr13-14/chinese/panels/dev/papers/dev0325cb1-1100-8-c.pdf
3. 2014 2014 http://www.thb.gov.
hk/tc/psp/publications/transport/publications/rds2014.pdf
4. 2016 21 http://www.
digital21.gov.hk/chi/index.htm

4.4.5
2014 1,110
76% / / /
24% 0.4% 2016 733 2043
822 0.8% 2016 250 2041
305

70

1. 2015 2030+ 2030
http://www.hk2030plus.hk/tc/index.asp

4.5

4.5.1

2012 2013
2015 56
134 19.7%
28 67 9.8%

2015 13
 71

45

2008 10 16

15 24

1. Oxfam. (2016). An economy for the 1%. Retrieved from https://www.oxfam.org/
sites/www.oxfam.org/files/file_attachments/bp210-economy-one-percent-tax-
havens-180116-en_0.pdf
2. 20162015 http://
www.povertyrelief.gov.hk/pdf/poverty_report_2015_c.pdf

4.5.2

1.1.5i
2015 GDP

72

2011 0.475

$10,000
2001 21.3% 2016 19.1% $40,000
21.4% 31.2% $10,000 $40,000
57.3% 49.6%

1. 20122011
http://www.statistics.gov.hk/pub/B11200572012XXXXB0100.pdf

4.5.3

2016 20 24
10.8% 3.3%

 73

2016
584,000 8%

1. 20152014
http://www.povertyrelief.gov.hk/chi/pdf/2014_EM_Report_Chi.pdf
2. 2016
http://www.hkeconomy.gov.hk/tc/pdf/box-16q2-c5-1.pdf
3. 20172016 http://
www.bycensus2016.gov.hk/data/16bc-summary-results.pdf

4.5.4
2016 46% (
) 53% 48.5%
1953

1997 2003
2015 2003 3.8
1.3

74

1. 2014 http://www.thb.gov.hk/tc/
policy/housing/policy/lths/LTHS201412.pdf
2. Long Term Housing Strategy Annual Progress Report 2015. Retrieved from http://
www.legco.gov.hk/yr15-16/english/panels/hg/papers/hgcb1-335-1-e.pdf

4.5.5

150
1997 2015 879,000
98%

2015
34,403
2003
2015 83,685
1,000 2006
2015 3,305
2008 /
2015
51,463

2014 2015 10,922

 75

1967

2014
5%

1. 2017 http://www.immd.gov.hk/hkt/services/index.
html
2. 2016
CB(2)648/15-16(05) http://www.legco.gov.hk/yr15-16/chinese/
panels/se/papers/se20160202cb2-648-5-c.pdf
3. 2015 2015 9 2004 2014
http://www.statistics.gov.hk/pub/
B71509FB2015XXXXB0100.pdf

4.5.6

76

4.5.7

1964 X 19651979 Y
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1.1.6

4.6

4.6

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 77

4.6.2

4.6.3

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automation
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82

universal
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 83

84

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 85

88

 89

gig
economy

jobless society

New Age
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90

counter culture

echo chamber effect

2008

Ronald Inglehart

2010

 91

2008

92

1997

 93

2001 9 11 2008
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Samuel
Huntington

2008

2045

94

 95

Asias World City

GDP 2%

96

2008

20162020
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 97

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2008

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98

2001
WTO

 99

100

 101

1987
250 120 130

8,000

GDP
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104

2030 2025

2013

 105

2030

2025

106

responsive government

 107

2022
2032 2042

108

1978
1.7 18% 2015
7.7 56% 193 658 2,173
20,113

 109

1979

110

 111

1997

114

2015

2047

 115

wake-up call

116

 117

118

learned
conjecture

spectrum

Bertelsmann-Stiftung Foundation
1
2030 2016 10 2030

1. Retrieved from https://www.bertelsmann-stiftung.de/en/topics/aktuelle-meldungen/2016/juni/

china-am-scheideweg-wohin-entwickelt-sich-das-asiatische-land/
120

 121

2042 Global Elite

Movement Index

122

2042

 123

1978

124

RCEP

2030

 125

2045

85

2008

2048

Seasteading Inc.

2048 Pearl Bay Area Olympics

128

2048

1997
2025

2045

2030 2040

2030

1997
2025

 129

eSports

2048

2045


APEC 30
ASEAN

2048

2030
2020
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2025

2017
3D

smart sustainability

 131

2044 8 World Economic Forum

1

2017

55%

132

1997

2030
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2027

2020 2040
Asias MIT
2019

2044 2,500

2044

2008
 133

2043

2014

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136

job
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 137

2043

140

2040
1

2050

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2

2. United Nations. (2016). New Urban Agenda: Resolution adopted by the General Assembly
on 23 December 2016. Retrieved from http://habitat3.org/wp-content/uploads/New-Urban-
Agenda-GA-Adopted-68th-Plenary-N1646655-E.pdf
3. 2016 /
TfL Rail
7.8%
 145

sharing economy

146

2050

2030+

 147

1 06/04/2016 N

2 11/04/2016 N

3 12/04/2016 N

4 19/04/2016 N

5 20/04/2016 N

6 05/05/2016 Y

7 09/05/2016 Y

8 11/05/2016 Y

9 11/05/2016 Y

148

10 18/05/2016 Y

11 19/05/2016 Y

12 23/05/2016 Y

13 NTT Com Asia Limited 24/05/2016 Y

14 25/05/2016 N

15 27/05/2016 Y

16 03/06/2016 Y

17 07/06/2016 Y

18 08/06/2016 Y

19 08/06/2016 Y

20 17/06/2016 Y

21 28/06/2016 Y

22 30/06/2016 Y

23 14/07/2016 Y
 149

24 18/07/2016 Y

25 21/07/2016 Y

26 25/07/2016 Y

27 03/08/2016 Y

28 04/08/2016 Y

29 11/08/2016 Y

30 17/08/2016 Y

31 24/08/2016 Y

32 26/08/2016 Y

N = Y =


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11

12

13

14

15

16

17

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19

20

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8 1 13/03/2017 8

9 83 16/03/2017 13

10 6 20/03/2017 8

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1946

1985

1977
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1962

1991

1982

1860

1951

2006

 155

2002

1995

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attention-deficit disorder

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 157

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160

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