MethodsofDelayAnalysis

RequirementsandDevelopments

KatrinEnders
HillInternational,LondonUK
Frankfurt,29September2015
OVERVIEW

Overview DefinitionForensicScheduleAnalysis

Approach DelayAnalysisMethodologiespro&cons

Findings Choosingamethodology,FactisKing,Guidance

Conclusions

2
OVERVIEW DEFINITION

BewarethedarkartswasthesageadviceofAlbus
DumbledoretotheyoungHarryPotter.Besidesbuddingwizards,
constructionclients(attheprojectordisputeresolutionstages),
contractorsandlawyerswouldbeequallywellservedbythis
advicewhenitcomestothedifficultsubjectofdelay
analysis"...delayanalysis likeLordVoldamort,comesinmany
guises anditseemsthereisaspellforeverycircumstance.What
wouldyoulikeconjurederrproven,sir?Letmejustmixup
somefragnets,lags,eyeofnewtandheypresto!

(cited: BEWARE THE DARK ARTS! DELAY ANALYSIS AND THE PROBLEMS WITH RELIANCE ON TECHNOLOGY, David Barry, 2009 )
3
 OVERVIEW DEFINITION

FORENSICSCHEDULEANALYSIS
referstothestudyandinvestigationofeventsusingCPM orother
recognizedschedulecalculationmethodsforpotentialuseinalegal
proceeding.

thestudyofhowactualeventsinteractedinthecontextofa
complexmodelforthepurposeofunderstandingthesignificanceofa
specificdeviationorseriesofdeviationsfromsomebaselinemodeland
theirroleindeterminingthesequenceoftaskswithinthecomplex
network.
(cited:AACEInternationalRecommendedPracticeNo.29R03FORENSICSCHEDULEANALYSISTCM Framework)

4
APPROACH

Overview DefinitionForensicScheduleAnalysisandNomenclature

Approach DelayAnalysisMethodologiespro&cons

Findings Choosingamethodology,FactisKing,Guidance

Conclusions

5
APPROACH DELAYANALYSISMETHODOLOGIES

RetrospectiveAnalyses ProspectiveAnalyses

LOOKING BACK LOOKING FORWARD

AsplannedversusAsbuilt TimeImpactAnalysis
AsBuiltButFor ImpactedAsplanned

TWO
Types

FOUR
Categories*

* See for example the Society of Construction Law Protocol on Delay and Disruption, or Association for the Advancement of Cost Engineering Recommended Practice No.29R-03
Forensic Schedule Analysis 6
APPROACH ASPLANNEDVS ASBUILT(APAB)

isthemostbasicmethodofanalysis
isobservational nochangesaremadetotheprogramme
straightforwardcomparisonbetweentheplanned vstheactual
performanceofthework
canonlybecarriedoutretrospectively(requiresasbuiltprogramme/orat
leasttheoverallasbuiltcompletiondate)

Strengths
isverysimpleandtherefore
easytounderstand
canbeperformedwith
rudimentarybasedata(e.g.
whendetailandlogicoftheas
plannedprogrammeisunavailable,
andno detailedprogressrecords
otherthantheoverallasbuilt
programmeareavailable)
Weakness
Staticcriticalpath
failstofulfilthefundamental
requirementtodemonstratethe
causallinkbetweenadelayeventand
itsallegedeffect
doesnotdealadequatelywith
concurrentdelay
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 APPROACH ASPLANNEDVS ASBUILT(APAB)

CompareAsPlannedvsAsBuilt

Activities Timescale
PlannedCP Contractual Actual
Completion Completion
AsbuiltCP Date
Date

(delays)

Claim
(delaysanddisruptions)
APPROACH IMPACTEDASPLANNED(IAP)

isaprospective methodology
delayeffectismeasuredbyimposingeventsonamodeloftheoriginal
programme(Baseline)
doesnotrelyonanyactualprogressthathasbeenmade
requiresarobustandreliableoriginalprogrammethatreflectsthe
indentedsequenceandtheScopeofWork

Strengths
relativelysimpletocarryoutand
tounderstand
No asbuiltrequired(likelychoice
whenplannedprogrammeisavailable,
nosignificantchangesinthesequence
duringtheprojectexecution,few
delayingevents,andwhenthereis
littleornoprogressrecords)
Weakness
cannotbeusedforcomplexprojects
usedtoquantifypotentialdelaysrather
andactual
concurrentdelayseasilyoverlooked
assumesthatthebaselinewas
achievable
doesnottakeactualprogress/resources
intoaccount
notreliableindisputeresolution
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 APPROACH IMPACTEDASPLANNED(IAP)

Activities Timescale

Event
Claim
Event

Event

Event
Event

Event

10
APPROACH TIMEIMPACTANALYSIS(TIA)
prospective anddynamicmethod butcanbeappliedretrospectively
takesaccountofprogressandtiming ofdelayeventsontheWorks
requiresreliableasbuiltdatatoupdatetheprogramme(hence,ifdetailedand
regularprogressdataisnotavailablethenthismethodcannotbeused)
a reliablebaselineprogrammeisessential(ideallyreflectstheexecutionofthe
plannedprojectusingsoundconstructionlogic)
oftenundertakenintimeslices(windows)

Strengths
hasaproventrackrecordin
forensicapplication
preferredmethodoftheSCL
Protocol
basedonadynamicandchanging
criticalpath
demonstrates causeandeffect
Weakness
timeconsuming(todeterminethefactual
backgroundandcorrectlogicassociated
withprogressrecordsanddelayevents)
requires considerabledegreeof
expertiseandtechnicalknowledge
hence,difficulttocommunicate,highly
complex
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APPROACH TIMEIMPACTANALYSIS(TIA)

Activities Timescale
Dateof Project
Event Completion
Activity1 DelaytoProject
Activity2 Completion
Activity3
DelayEvent

Progressbehind
onthisactivity. DelaytoProject
Completion(2)
Delay(1)causedbypoorprogress
Delay(2)causedbyevent
Claim=differencebetweenD(1)andD(2)
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APPROACH ASBUILTBUTFOR(ABBF)
retrospectivemethodalsoknownasCollapsedAsbuilt(CAB)
reliesonadetailedreconstructionoftheasbuiltprogramme
normallyrestrictedtoaftertheeventanalysesinforensicwork
doeshavealimitedprospectivecapability(canbeusedtodemonstratetheeffect
ofadelayonthecompletedpartofanincompleteproject)
hasbeenproventobereliableindisputeresolution/claims
Ifdoneproperlycandemonstrateseffectandcause/takesaccountof
concurrence
Strengths Weakness
greateststrengthforforensicwork complicatedmethodhence,difficultto
isthatitisfactbased(basedonas executeandtoexplain
build) difficulttoestablishadynamicasbuilt
notreliantuponanasplanned schedule(ascomplicatedtodetermineand
programme modellogic)
requiresdetailedasbuild/progress
records
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APPROACH ASBUILTBUTFOR(ABBF)

IdentifyPlannedPeriod&Asbuilt

Planned Actual
Planned Completion Completion
period

Asbuilt

14
APPROACH ASBUILTBUTFOR(ABBF)

IdentifyDelays

Planned Actual
Planned Completion Completion
period

Asbuilt

15
APPROACH ASBUILTBUTFOR(ABBF)

Zerodelays

Planned Actual
Planned Completion Completion
period

Asbuilt

ActualCompletionbutfor
delays
16
APPROACH ASBUILTBUTFOR(ABBF)

QuantifyClaim
Extended
Completion
Contract
Contract Completion
period Actual
Completion
Asbuilt

Culpableornon Claim
claimabledelays period

ActualCompletion
butfordelays
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APPROACH NOMENCLATURE
AACEI RP 29R-03: Forensic Schedule Analysis
Table 1 Nomenclature Correspondence

ADVANTGES & DISADVANTAGES

NOT PREFERENCE OR PREJUDICE!

18
FINDINGS

Overview DefinitionForensicScheduleAnalysisandNomenclature

Approach DelayAnalysisMethodologiespro&cons

Findings Choosingamethodology,FactisKing,Guidance

Conclusions

19
FINDINGS CHOOSINGAMETHODOLOGY

WhichMethodisappropriate,correct,sustainable?
Legal/Contractual
Whatdoesthejurisdiction/contractrequire?(e.g.Concurrency?LikelyorActualdelay
tocompletion?DelayAnalysisMethodSpecified?)

Whatinformationisavailable?
Planned,progress,asbuilt(Doesalackofinformationprecludetheuseofanyofthe
methods?)

TimeandMoney
Dotime/costconstraintseliminatecertainoptions?((Duringproject/AfterProject,
Recordkeeping;Staffavailable(Engineering/Management),Decisionmaking,Budget)

Otherissues:
Proportionality,Typeofproject,Whichparty,atwhatstageisthedispute?
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 FINDINGS FACTISKING

KeyFacts:
AtleastafteraneventdelaybecomesafactandtheOtherParty/theCourtsare
interestedinwhatactuallyhappenedratherthaninwhatcouldhavehappened.

Foraneventtoaffectthecompletiondateitmustfallonthecriticalpathofthe
project.

must considerallrelevantfactsandevidence regardlessofapositiveornegative

impactinrelationtotheissuesinquestion

DelayAnalysisshouldbebasedonacalculatedapproach itcannotbeimpressionistic
EffectandCausenotCauseandEffect

Aretherefacts/evidenceavailableandaccessibletoverifythecause?

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FINDINGS GUIDANCE

RecommendGuidance:
AACEI RecommendedPractice(http://www.aacei.org/resources/ppg/)

SCL Protocol(http://www.scl.org.uk/resources)

22
CONCLUSIONS

Overview DefinitionForensicScheduleAnalysisandNomenclature

Approach DelayAnalysisMethodologiespro&cons

Findings Choosingamethodology,FactisKing,Guidance

Conclusions

23
CONCLUSIONS

Conclusions:
DelayAnalysiscomesinmanyguisesallwiththeir
advantagesanddisadvantages
Tochosethemostsuitablemethoddependsonthe
surroundingfactors
FactsandcommonsenseareKING

24
 QUESTIONS

QUESTIONS PLEASE ?

Katrin Enders
Associate Director
Hill International (UK) Ltd
11 Pilgrim Street,
London EC4V 6RN
Office: +44 (0)207 618 1200/ 1262
Mobile: +44 (0)7850722796
www.hillintl.com
25
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