MCX DAILY LEVELS

DAILY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

ALUMINIUM 31- JULY-2017 122.60 122 121.60 120.90 122.10 121.60 121.10 120.60 120.00

COPPER 31-AUG-2017 392.50 389.20 386.20 384.40 381.50 379.60 376.60 374.80 371.10

CRUDE OIL 19-JULY-17 3065 3037 2981 2947 2891 2857 2801 2767 2730

GOLD 04-AUG-2017 28192 28102 27986 27910 27794 27718 27602 27526 27451

LEAD 31- JULY-2017 153.30 152.30 151.50 150.00 149.20 147.70 146.90 145.40 144.00

NATURAL GAS 26-JULY-2017 204.90 202.40 199.60 195.20 194.30 191.20 186.20 183.40 180.20

NICKEL 31- JULY-2017 623.90 614.00 604.00 598.80 589.00 583.10 573.10 567.40 560.10

SILVER 05-SEP-2017 38010 37807 37316 37043 36552 36279 35788 35515 35300

ZINC 31- JULY-2017 189.30 188.20 185.50 183.90 181.20 179.60 176.30 175.30 174.10

MCX WEEKLY LEVELS

WEEKLY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

ALUMINIUM 31- JULY-2017 124.60 123.50 122.60 121.60 122.10 121.10 120.00 119.10 118.00

COPPER 31-AUG-2017 402.50 397 392.50 386.20 381.54 376.60 371.10 365.50 360.50

CRUDE OIL 19-JULY-17 3180 3120 3065 2981 2891 2801 2730 2695 2650

GOLD 04-AUG-2017 28651 28400 28192 27986 27794 27602 27451 27251 27001

LEAD 31- JULY-2017 157.50 155.50 153.30 151.50 149.20 146.90 144.00 142.10 140.00

NATURAL GAS 26-JULY-2017 210.00 207.00 204.90 199.60 194.30 186.20 180.20 174.00 171.10

NICKEL 31- JULY-2017 649.00 635 623.90 604.00 589.00 573.10 560.10 551.00 545.00

SILVER 05-SEP-2017 39000 38500 38010 37316 36552 35788 35300 34900 34450

ZINC 31- JULY-2017 195.30 191.30 189.30 185.50 181.20 176.30 174.10 172.10 170.10

Monday, 10 July 2017

 FOREX DAILY LEVELS

DAILY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

USDINR 27-JUL-17 65.00 64.90 64.80 64.65 64.71 64.40 64.19 64.00 63.90

EURINR 27-JUL-17 74.60 74.40 74.20 74.00 73.83 73.50 73.30 73.10 72.90

GBPINR 27-JUL-17 84.42 84.22 84.02 83.82 83.62 83.40 83.20 82.99 82.79

JPYINR 27-JUL-17 57.60 57.40 57.10 56.90 56.70 56.50 56.20 56.00 55.80

FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS

WEEKLY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

USDINR 27-JUL-17 66.25 65.85 65.32 64.99 64.71 64.00 63.49 62.99 62.49

EURINR 27-JUL-17 75.45 75.00 74.60 74.20 73.83 73.30 72.90 72.50 72.10

GBPINR 27-JUL-17 85.45 84.90 84.42 84.02 83.62 83.20 82.79 82.10 81.80

JPYINR 27-JUL-17 56.55 56.10 57.60 57.10 56.70 56.20 55.80 55.40 55.00
 NCDEX DAILY LEVELS

DAILY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

SYOREFIDR 20-AUG-2017 656.00 653.00 650.00 648.00 645 635.00 632.00 629.00 626.00

SYBEANIDR 20-AUG-2017 3250 3191 3147 3080 3036 2969 2925 2858 2800

RMSEED 20-AUG-2017 3830 3762 3737 3692 3667 3622 3597 3552 3502

JEERAUNJHA 20-AUG-2017 19495 19245 19040 18780 18575 18315 18110 17850 17650

GUARSEED10 20-AUG-2017 3510 3458 3429 3384 3355 3310 3281 3256 3200

TMC 20-AUG-2017 7850 7772 7538 7420 7186 7060 6800 6714 6600

NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS

WEEKLY EXPIRY DATE R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

SYOREFIDR 20-AUG-2017 666.00 661.00 656.00 650.00 645 632.00 626.00 621.00 615.00

SYBEANIDR 20-AUG-2017 3400 3319 3250 3147 3036 2925 2800 2720 2650

RMSEED 20-AUG-2017 3930 3890 3830 3737 3667 3597 3502 3450 3400

JEERAUNJHA 20-AUG-2017 20000 19795 19495 19040 18575 18110 17650 17300 17000

GUARSEED10 20-AUG-2017 3595 3550 3510 3429 3355 3281 3200 3119 3050

TMC 20-AUG-2017 8200 8000 7850 7538 7186 6800 6600 6442 6200
MCX - WEEKLY MARKET REVIEW

Precious metals slumped last week after a negative close in June despite a slumping dollar as major central
banks globally turned unexpectedly hawkish. The Fed increased rates by 25 bps as expected but the
probability of a reducing divergence in policies between Fed and other banks like ECB and BOE resulted in
the dollar witnessing its worst quarterly decline in seven years. Speculative positions saw a big liquidation
last week with net-longs in gold down nearly 50% in just one week. ETFs also saw an outflow last week
with SPDR gold holdings down by 17 tonnes. Silver ETF holdings were up by 66 tonnes. The upcoming
week is likely to be very crucial with gold trading near important psychological levels. The Janet Yellen
testimony will provide cues on Fed thinking while inflation and retail sales data will give cues on the health
of the US economy.
Gold prices have been on a broader uptrend this year with prices up 7.5% YTD until the end of June but
have repeatedly failed to break above $1300 as markets still lack a trigger big enough to take prices beyond
that important level. The major events in recent weeks provided no real positive trigger which has led to the
massive liquidation we saw last week. The Fed raised rates by 25 bps to 1.00-1.25% as expected and most
members see another rate hike at the end of this year. The Fed expects real GDP to rise 2.1-2.2% in 2017,
compared to its previous outlook of 2.0-2.2%. The Fed is closely watching inflation but didnt express any
concern about the recent slowdown. The details about trimming of the $4.5 trillion balance were released but
there was no start date announced. When the unwinding starts, the Fed will reduce reinvestments in
Treasuries (TSY) at a rate of $6Bn/month and mortgage backed securities (MBS) at $4Bn/month, totalling
$10bn/month initially. It will increase the reinvestment caps in steps of $10bn ($6TSY+$4MBS) at 3 month
intervals over 12 months until it reaches a total 50bn per month. While, the Fed wasnt explicitly hawkish,
lack of concern over low inflation and recent slowdown in data implied a hawkish stance which pressured
precious metals. The other risk events in the past few weeks also have failed to help gold. The UK election
resulted in Conservatives losing majority and market reactions were limited to the pound and UK assets with
no global spillover. In the US, the testimony of ex-FBI director James Comey turned out to be a damp squib
as he failed to clarify if the President obstructed investigation into his campaigns Russian links. Naturally,
gold prices then fell back from seven month highs and the correction is likely to extend in the near term.
Gold has filed to rally despite the dollar being on a downtrend as hawkishness from major central banks like
the ECB, BOE and the Bank of Canada have lifted their respective currencies. The euro is at its highest in
sixmonths after Draghis positive assessment of the economy and inflation which was seen as a sign of
hawkishness. The probability of a reducing divergence in policies between Fed and other banks like ECB
and BOE is likely to keep the dollar lower in the coming weeks as well but that may not help precious
metals much as bond yields have started to jump higher. US 10yr yield is near a three month high of 2.38%.
US economic data has also been generally benign but has failed to lift gold. The core PCE remains at 1.4%,
far from Feds 2% target while wage growth remains at 2.5% y/y. Inflation expectations also remain lower
suggesting that hawkishness by the Fed is unwarranted. Retail sales fell 0.3% last month and core CPI grew
less than forecast at 1.7% y/y. Consumer sentiment fell to 94.5 suggesting lack of optimism in the economy
while housing data also took a hit. Housing starts slumped 5.5% and building permits fell 4.9% in May.
Labor market data, while good on the whole, still has room to improve.
Bullion is highly sensitive to rising rates because they push up bond yields, increasing the opportunity cost
of holding non-yielding gold. They also tend to boost the dollar, in which gold is priced. Traders were
looking ahead to Wednesday and Thursday, when U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen will address
Congress. Traders expected monetary tightening from many central banks. That rationale was bolstered by
better than expected U.S. jobs data and strong German export figures. Investors have sharply scaled back
bets, reducing their net long positions in COMEX gold in the week to July 3 by more than half to the
smallest bullish stance since January. Gold holdings at the world's largest bullion-backed exchange-traded
fund, SPDR Gold Trust, fell 2 percent in the week to Friday.

ENERGY

Oil prices have been under consistent selling pressure in the last few weeks as negative news-flow has
dented sentiment. Markets have been awaiting data on market rebalancing but physical markets remain
oversupplied and inventories remain elevated. Despite OPECs attempts to lift prices, oil is trading near 9-
month lows as fundamentals remain unsupportive. To offer a backdrop, the OPEC in its May meeting
decided to extend output cuts until March 2018. This means OPEC and Non-OPEC combined production
will continue to be cut by 1.8 mbpd for another 9 months. The OPEC believes that deal will bring
inventories back in line with upper range of five-year averages. The OPEC in its November meeting will
take a call on the strategy based on market conditions. Still, there are still no visible signs of tightness in the
market. As per our estimates, OPECs production edged higher by 0.5 mbpd in June to 32.7 mbpd, a six-
month high as Libyan and Nigerian production increased. The rebalancing process remains slow and
resumption in Nigerian and Libyan output has complicated the OPEC strategy. Equatorial Guinea, which
became an OPEC member in May, also resulted in the OPEC output increase by 0.15 mbpd. Nigerian
production is back at a 17 month high of 2.0 mbpd while Libyan output has nearly tripled from last year with
production nearing 0.95 mbpd. This roughly translates to an increase of about 0.4-0.5 mbpd from these two
and negates nearly half of the OPECs 1.2 mbpd cut. Frustration about the slow pace of market re-balancing
will continue to weigh on prices going ahead as well. The growing concern is that rising Non-OPEC output,
led by the US is increasingly offsetting the reduced OPEC production. Non-OPEC supply forecasts also
continue to be revised upwards. The IEA sees Non-OPEC supply growth of 1.5 mbpd next year compared to
demand growth of 1.4 mbpd. The revisions have been largely prompted due the fast rebounding shale oil
production in the US. Oil rig count has been increasing since June 2016 and is now at its highest since April
2015. At 763 rigs, US oil rigs have more than doubled from the same time last year and point to more
increases in oil output. Weekly data from EIA shows that total US oil production is comfortably above 9.3
million bpd, the highest since August 2015. EIA forecasts show that US shale oil production is expected to
rise further in July. The EIA drilling productivity report shows that shale oil output will likely increase by
127,000 bpd in July to 5.47 mbpd. To put this in perspective, in the downturn of 2015-2016, shale oil output
fell from a peak of 5.46 million bpd in March 2015 to a low of 4.75 million bpd in December 2016. Since
January 2017, shale production has started to edge up and is now almost back near its peak. The EIA
forecasts output to reach a new record and surpass 10.0 mbpd next year. This is going to remain the biggest
head-wind for oil prices. On the inventory side, EIA data showed that oil inventories fell by 6.3 million
barrels while gasoline stocks fell by 3.6 million. Gasoline demand inched up to 9.70 mbpd from 9.53 mbpd.
Crude oil production rose back as operators restarted after Tropical Storm Cindy but overall US production
has been stuck around 9.3 mbpd for past five weeks. From a monthly perspective, US oil inventories fell by
0.8% m/m in June to 509.2 million but were 3.1% higher y/y. The driving season in the US has not shown
any major drawdown in gasoline inventories with stocks up in both m/m and y/y comparison last month.
OECD oil inventories also re-main 291 million barrels above the five-year average. On the whole, global oil
stocks and US oil and product inventories still remain elevated and we are yet to see a sustained drawdown
implying that market rebalancing has still not gathered pace and that it will be a long drawn process.
The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and some nonOPEC members agreed in May to
curtail production until March 2018, but the move has failed to eliminate a global glut of crude. Several key
OPEC ministers will meet non-OPEC country Russia on July 24 in St Petersburg, Russia, to discuss oil
markets. Kuwait said on Sunday that Nigeria and Libya had been invited to the meeting and their production
could be capped earlier than November, when OPEC is scheduled to hold formal talks, according to
Bloomberg. However, Nigeria's oil minister was unable to attend the OPEC meeting because of a previous
commitment, the Kuwait Oil Minister Essam alMarzouq told reporters on Monday. Libya said on Monday it
was ready for talks but added that its political, economic and humanitarian situation should be taken into
account in talks on caps. Meanwhile on Monday the CEO of Saudi Aramco Amin Nasser told a conference
in Istanbul he thought the world was headed for a global supply shortage.For natural gas, prices are likely to
see further short-term correction as demand is likely to trail supply owing to seasonal factors. Working
natural gas stocks reached 2,888 Bcf, 9% less than the year-ago level and 7% more than the five-year (2012
16) average for the week.

BASE METAL

Copper prices eased last week on a surge in warehouse stocks, but the threat of strike action at two Chilean
mines curbed losses. The threat of a strike will restrict the downside, without that sort of news the price
might have fallen much further. The supply side and disruptions are to some extent offsetting the more
bearish news surrounding the stock increases. Onwarrant copper inventories in LME warehouses have
soared by 47% to 213,900 tons since June 28 after inflows into mostly Asian depots. Potential mid-July
work stoppages at two copper mines in Chile could pinch the supply of the red metal and raise its price,
provided the labor-management differences are not settled quickly. Workers at Antofagastas Zaldivar mine
and supervisors at its Centinela mine site will be voting by mid-July on whether to strike. The combined
annual production at the two mines is up to 285,000 metric tons of copper. Hedge funds and money
managers in the week to July 3 raised their net long position in COMEX copper futures and options. China's
PPI rose 5.5% in June from a year earlier, which also underpinned investor demand for metals. Although
China's domestic market is weakening because of seasonality, it has not shown a very strong weakness, and
also because of the improving macro sentiment has seen some signs from the Chinese central bank trying to
increase liquidity. China's economy will maintain steady and improving momentum in the second half of this
year, but it still faces many difficulties, state radio quoted Premier Li Keqiang as saying on Friday. In other
data points, The U.S. economy continues to churn out jobs and grow at a steady pace, with investment and
consumer confidence both healthy and only moderate signs of risk in financial markets. Japan's core
machinery orders unexpectedly tumbled in May and the government downgraded the outlook for orders for
the first time in eight months. Softer dollar has helped underpin prices as it makes dollar-denominated
products cheaper for non-US buyers, potentially boosting demand. LME nickel slide to a two week low,
trending down on expectations Indonesia and Malaysia will step up ore shipments. Pressure mounted after
the new environment minister lifted a restriction on issuing environmental permits to projects, including
mine exploration and development, reversing a previous order by his controversial predecessor dismissed in
May. The news from the Philippines has eased worries about shortages of the metal used to make stainless
steel, where production is slowing. Indonesia has issued recommendations to two more companies to allow
them to export mineral ores. Recently Cuba announced plans to produce 54,500 tons of nickel and cobalt
sulfides this year.
Aluminium prices climbed to more than five-week highs during the week as worries about supply from top
producer China escalated on market talk those local smelters would be forced to shut capacity. There are
ongoing investigations into Chinese aluminium production capacity, which hasn't been approved by central
government. A lot of it is to do with pollution. Aluminium needs a lot of energy, which in China comes from
coal-fired plants.the metals market was subdued inflation data in top market China as the economy loses
momentum. as rising inventories indicated healthy supplies, outweighing worries about possible strikes at
mines in Chile. Also pressuring the metals market was subdued inflation data in top market China as the
economy loses momentum. Further, Copper stocks at the LME warehouses have surged by a whopping 30
per cent last week, pushing the inventory levels to the highest since 25th May17.

MCX TECHNICAL VIEW

GOLD

Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.66% to
settled at 6583 while prices up 10 rupees, now Gold is getting support at 27658 and below same could see a
test of 27522 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 27875, a move above could see prices testing
27956.
 SILVER

Technically market is under short covering as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -3.62% to settled
at 22326 while prices up 313 rupees, now Silver is getting support at 35803 and below same could see a test of
35063 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 36940, a move above could see prices testing 37337.

CRUDEOIL

Technically market is under fresh buying as market has witnessed gain in open interest by 2.84% to settled at
17035, now Crudeoil is getting support at 2835 and below same could see a test of 2793 level, And resistance
is now likely to be seen at 2906, a move above could see prices testing 2935
 COPPER

Technically market is under long liquidation as market has witnessed drop in open interest by -1.77% to
settled at 13794 while prices down -0.85 rupees, now Copper is getting support at 376.8 and below same
could see a test of 374.4 level, And resistance is now likely to be seen at 381.2, a move above could see
prices testing 383.2.
NCDEX - WEEKLY MARKET REVIEW

SOYABEAN
NCDEX Soybean August futures closed higher on Friday as market participants are little bullish as irregular
monsoon and low price realization to farmers in the last season is discouraging sowing prospects for soybean
in the country. Area under soybean crop across the country for the 2017-18 kharif was 53.6 lakh hectares till
last week, up by about 10% on year. Last year, the acreage was 48.6 lakh hectares. CBOT August soybean
futures rallied 1.4 percent on Friday on hotter and drier forecasts for important growing areas of the U.S.
Midwest. Soybeans posted weekly gains of around 6 % last week. It was the biggest weekly rally for
soybeans since October 2014. Moreover, lower than expected acreage and lower rating of the US crop. US
weekly exports were the lowest since the first week of the 16/17 MY, at 278,669 MT, but were 43.2% above
last year. CFTC data showed spec funds backing off their net short position by 48,467 contracts to a net
position of 70,216 contracts in soybean futures and options. Projected 2017 Chinese soybean production is
estimated at 14.3 mt by the Chinese National Gains and Oils Info Center, up 9.2% from last year.
Refined Soy Oil Aug futures close lower last week as market participants book profit at higher levels.
However, on anticipation of increase in import duty the prices increase by 0.32% in last one week.
Government is likely to increase the import duty on edible oils by mid-July in view of the sharp fall in
domestic oilseed prices. There is an anticipation of good domestic demand of edible oil during the monsoon
season. The base import price of crude soyoil has been cut by $9 to $803 per tonne for the first half of July.
This is the first cut in tariff value in two month. Base import prices of edible oils are revised every fortnight,
based on global prices and changes in foreign exchange rate. The prices were last revised on Jun 15. As per
SEA, the import volume is down by about 30% for the period from Nov-May to 16.10 lt compared to 24.22
lt last year for same period.

RMSEED
Mustard July futures closed lower on Friday due to lower meal export data from the Solvent Extractors
coupled with lower crushing data. For the week the prices were closed flat. According to data compiled by
Mustard Oil Producers Association of India, Oil mills in the country crushed 550,000 tn mustard seed in
June, 23% lower from the previous month. Meal exports from the country during last month were lower
compared to previous month. Mustard meal exports in June this year at 4074 tonnes, down 21.4% compared
to previous month in May. Last year, India exports 43,636 tonnes of meals in June. As per Agmarknet data,
the mustard arrivals were 16,430 tonnes last week, lower as compared to 23,367 tonnes in the previous
week. Higher stocks level in country is still pressurizing prices. Mustard prices have been under pressure due
to record production in 2016/17 and higher imports of Mustard oil during the current oil year started Nov
2016. As per SEA recent data, mustard oil imports for period Nov-May increase 5% to 1.18 lt in 2016/17
from 1.72 lt in the previous year. Moreover, imports increase by 55.7% in May compared to last year
imports.

SUGAR
Sugar Futures closed higher on week on news that government might increase import duty. However, good
domestic supplies and steady physical demand is pressurizing prices during last one month. Indias sugar
production is set to rebound from a sevenyear low as above-normal monsoon rain in the worlds largest
consumer helps the cane crop that will be crushed from Oct. 1. According to government data, Sugarcane
acreage in the country was at 47.5 lakh ha, higher than 44.8 lakh ha a year ago. ICE Raw sugar futures
closed higher on technical rebound last week but still favourable outlook for 2017/18 crops kept the market
under pressure. Ample supplies continued to weigh on the market, with crop-friendly weather in Brazil,
India and Thailand fueling expectations for a surplus in the 2017-18 season.

COTTON
MCX Cotton closed higher last week on fear a decline in yield due to deficient rainfall in major growing
areas during the last three weeks. Moreover, expectation of good physical demand for cotton as GST on
cotton is less than manmade fibers. AS per IMD, the middle-, northern- and eastern parts of India received
abovenormal rainfall, the western and southern parts remained deficient last year, with reports of deficient
rainfalls in large cotton-growing regions. As per latest data from Agricultural Ministry, cotton is planted in
71.8 lakh hectares (l ha) till last week, higher by 5.8% compared to last year acreage of 68 lakh ha for same
period. ICE cotton futures rose for the third straight session to more than two-week highs on Friday after a
U.S. federal report showed strong export sales numbers for top consumer China, with prices further
supported by weather-related crop woes. Weekly shipments of 302,498 RB were reported, 21.19% above last
week but 1.51% lower than a year ago at this time. In the COT report, spec traders were shown to back off
their net long position by another 5,000 contracts to a net position of 26,410 contracts in cotton futures and
options trading.

JEERA
NCDEX Jeera for Aug delivery closed lower last week on technical selling and profit booking despite lower
than expected stocks levels in the country. The jeera arrival in June is lower this year compared to May as
well as June last year. As per the data release by government, jeera exports in April 2017 was 14,599 tonnes,
were down 9% from March. In 2016/17, country exports increase by 26% to 1.24 lt in as per the data release
by Dept. of commerce, GOI. The stock levels in the NCDEX warehouse increased to 1,310 tonnes as on July
7 from 1,187 tonnes on Jun 30. Last year, stocks were higher at 3,482 tonnes. NCDEX July Turmeric
jumped higher by 6.64% last week with higher volumes due as Telangana, highest producing turmeric state,
has received large deficient rains (-60% LPA) last week. Moreover, in Telangana, turmeric acreage as on 05-
Jul-17, down 18% to 14,556 hectares as compared to last year acreage of 17,784 hectares. The normal
acreage is close to 47,000 hectares. Market arrivals dropped about 60% in June compared to May. As per
Agmarknet data, about 27,448 tonnes arrived in June compared to 73,436 tonnes during previous month. As
 per the data release by government, turmeric exports during first four months in 2017 is 42,855 tonnes, up
40.7% compared to last year same period.

NCDEX TECHNICAL VIEW

JEERA
NCDEX Jeera remained range bound within Rs.18100 - 19300 in the previous two weeks and either side
sustained breach may provide further direction. The 14 period RSI is moving sideways indicating lack of
momentum. Higher resistance is at Rs.19650 whereas lower support is at Rs.17650 / 17300. Expect sideways
consolidation to continue for the week.

RM SEED

NCDEX RMSeed continues to form lower highs and lower lows on the daily time frame. However, price has
now formed a double bottom near Rs.3460 level indicating possibility of a strong pullback. Double bottom is a
trend reversal pattern, thus, buying on dips near Rs.3580 - 3550 level is advised targeting Rs.3760 mark.
Rising 14-period RSI (momentum indicator) supports the above view.

GUARSEED
NCDEX Guarseed remained in a broad range for Rs.3100 - 3500 for the past three weeks and either side
move could be decisive. Strong short-term supports are placed at Rs.3200 / 3150 whereas Rs.3400 / 3500 may
act as stiff resistances. Sideways consolidation is likely with bullish bias. Thus, dip buying is advised.

SOYABEAN
NCDEX Soybean continues to rise gradually after stabilizing above crucial long term support at Rs.2600 -
2650 zone. Strong immediate supports are now placed at Rs.2900 / 2840 whereas Rs.3000 / 3065 are expected
to act as stiff resistances. Sideways to bullish move is likely to continue even this week. Dip buying is
advised.
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