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A Summer Internship Project Report on

Fundamental and Technical analysis of GOLD

POST GRADUATE DIPLOMA IN MANAGEMENT

By
SRISHTY JAIN
Roll number: BM-016249
(2016-18)

FACULTY MENTOR: INDUSTRY MENTOR:


Mr. GAURAV DAWAR Dr. RAVI SINGH
(Department of Finance, IMS Gzb.) (Research Department head,
SMC Global Securities Ltd.)

1
DECLARATION

I, Srishty Jain, do hereby declare that the Summer Internship Project entitled Study on
Commodity market, Analysis on Gold has been undertaken by me as part of my studies in the
degree of Master of Business Administration. I have completed this study under the guidance of
Mr. Gaurav Dawar, Professor of Finance, Institute of Management Studies, Gzb. And Dr. Ravi
Singh (Research Head, SMC Global Securities Ltd.)

I also declare that this work has not been submitted for the award of any degree, diploma,
associateship or fellowship or any other title in this Institute or any other College/ University.

Place: IMS, Gzb Srishty Jain


Date: Roll No.: BM-016249

2
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

I am indebted to many people who helped me accomplish this internship successfully.


First, I thank to the Director, Dr. J.P. Sharma, Director of Institute of Management Studies Gzb.,
for giving me the opportunity to do my summer internship project.
I thank, Dr. Tapan Kumar Nayak, Program Chairperson PGDM, Institute of Management
Studies for their kind support.
I wish to take this opportunity to express my deep sense of gratitude to thank Dr. Ravi Singh
(Research head, SMC Global Securities Ltd.) for this valuable guidance throughout my project. I
sincerely thank SMC GLOBAL SECURITIES LTD. for providing me with an opportunity to work
in the RESEARCH Department.

I thank Mr. Gaurav Dawar, for his support and guidance during the course of my summer
internship. I remember him with much gratitude for his patience and motivation, but for which I
could not have submitted this work.
I thank my parents for their blessings and constant support, without which this summer
internship would not have seen the light of day.

Srishty Jain
Roll No. BM-016249

3
TABLE OF CONTENTS

CHAPTER TOPIC NAME PAGE


NO. NO.
Declaration 2
Acknowledgement 3
Executive summary 6
1.0 Introduction to Industry and Company
1.1 Overview Of Industry 7-15
Overview Of Company 16-22
1.2
2.0 Literature review 23

3.0 Project objectives 24


3.1 Objective of the study 24
Scope of the study
3.2
4.0 Project methodology
Data collection of the study 25
4.1 Statistical tools used 25
4.2 Technical tools used 25

5.0 Introduction to the topic 26-35

6.0 Data analysis


Correlation and Regression 36-40
Impact of GST on gold 41-42
7.0 Fundamental facts
Effect of sub-prime crises on gold 43
7.1
Impact of U.S. non- employment 44
7.2 payroll on gold
Impact of FED. Interest rate hike on gold 44
8.0 Technical Analysis 45-57

9.0 Findings, recommendations and conclusion 58-61

Bibliography 62

Annexure 63-66

4
LIST OF TABLES

TABLE NO. TABLE NAME PAGE NO.

TABLE 1 GOLD SUPPLY 30

TABLE 2 GOLD DEMAND 31

TABLE 3 GOLD RESERVE 32

TABLE 4 GOLD IMPORT 33

TABLE 5 GOLD EXPORT 33

5
EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

Indian Stock Market has undergone through various ups and downs. This report is the collective

research of Fundamental and Technical Analysis of gold. Past gold prices were analyzed in order

to understand the current and the future scenario.All the factors affecting the prices of gold was

included in the fundamental analysis to understand the factors and its impact on gold.

Also it includes the international analysis i.e. export, import, consumption, reserves. All the

fundamental facts are also included in the analysis i.e. Subprime Crises, US Non-Employment

Payroll and Impact Of FED Rate increase. After that the statistical tools are applied to define the

relationship of gold with USD and Silver.And in the last part of gold analysis the strategies are

defined for the future predictions by using the technical tools. Also the portfolio of nifty 50 is

being created by calculating the ROI of the 51 companies.

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Chapter 1

Introduction to the Industry and Company

1.1 OVERVIEW OF THE INDUSTRY

COMMODITY MARKET
A virtual market place for buying, selling and trading raw or primary products, for the people who

want to invest. There are currently about 50 major commodity markets which are worldwide to

provide facilities to the investors to trade in around 100 primary commodities. Commodities are

divided into two types: hard and soft commodities. Hard commodities include natural resources

that must be mined or extracted (gold, rubber, oil, etc.), whereas soft commodities include

agricultural products or livestock (corn, wheat, sugar, coffee, soybeans, pork, etc.)

The two exchanges for commodity are:

National Commodity & Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) Limited Mumbai

It is one of the online based commodity exchange in India. It was commenced on 9, May 2003

and began its operations on 15 December, 2003. It is the only exchange in India which is being

promoted by National Institutions. It is regulated by SEBI.

Products and Services


Agri Products such as cereals and Pulses, Bajra, Cotton, Guar, Guar Gum, Rubber, Potato
Oil and Oil seeds, Soya Bean Degummed, Soy oil Refined, soy oil Crude Palm Oil, Soymeal

Sugar, Pepper, Turmeric, JEERA, Chilli, Coriander.

Non- Agri Products such as steel, copper, Gold (100 gm), Gold Hedge, Silver, Silver Hedge

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Timings
Products Timings
Weekdays
Agri commodities 10 a.m 5 p.m.

Bullion , metal, Crude, PVC 10 a.m.- 5 p.m.

Saturdays
Agri commodities 10a.m- 2p.m.

Bullion, Metal, Crude, PVC Closed

Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) of India Limited Mumbai

MCX is the youngest stock exchange out of the three stock exchanges. It is established in

November 2003 and is based in Mumbai. It is the commodity derivatives exchange that facilitates

online trading, and clearing and settlement of commodity futures transactions, thereby providing

a platform for risk management. MCX is regulated by SEBI.

MCX Timings

10:00a.m to 5:00 p.m- Morning Session

5:00p.m to 11:30 p.m- Evening Session (Summer)

5:00p.m to 11:55p.m- Evening Session( Winters)

Indices

MCX Agri, MCX Energy, MCX Metal, Rainfall Indices.

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Products Traded on MCX

A. Bullions- Gold, Gold Mini, Silver, Silver Mini, Silver Micro, Silver 1000, Gold Petal

B. Base Metals- Aluminum, Copper, Zinc, Nickel, Aluminum Mini, Copper Mini, Zinc Mini,

Nickel Mini.

C. Energy: Crude Oil, Crude Oil Mini, Crude Oil Brent, Natural Gas

D. Agro Commodities- Cardamom, Cotton, Crude Palm Oil, Mentha Oil,Castor seeds, Kapas.

Factors Affecting these commodities:

a) USD- INR exchange rate

b) Economic factors, industry growth, financial crisis such as recession, inflation

c) Weather conditions in case of agri commodities

Players in the market:

Hedgers- A hedger is a one who takes steps to reduce the risk by offsetting the investment.

Hedging strategies are used by the hedger to reduce the risk. Hedgers may reduce the risk but in

doing so, they can reduce the profit potential. Their main objective is to protect the profit and

limit the expenses.

For Instance- A cereal manufacturer wants to hedge against wheat price rising by buying a futures

contract that promises delivery of July wheat at a specified price.

Speculators-A speculators are the people who trade derivatives, commodities, bonds, equities or

currencies with a more risk in return for a higher than the average profit. Speculators take large

risks, to earn the higher profits. Speculators are typically sophisticated risk-taking investors as

9
they have expertise in the markets in which they are trading in; they use investments

like futures and options. These investors are call speculators because of their ability to predict

price changes. Normally, speculators do not operate for a short time period as the traditional

investors. For instance: An investor who is investing by seeing the bearish trend with a prediction

or expectation of an increase in trend in near future. This unpredictable and risky investment is

what a speculator does.

Arbitragers- An arbitrager is a attempting to profit from price differences in the market. These

people buy from one market and sell it to the other with the higher price range. They make the

risk-free profits.

For example, searching for the stocks registered in different markets, then buying the stock from
the market where the stock price is less and selling it to the other market where the stock price is

more than the buying price.

INDIAN STOCK MARKET

A stock exchange is the exchange which provides services to stock brokers and traders for trading

of stocks, bonds, and other securities. Stock exchanges provide facilities to issuing and redeeming

the securities and other financial instruments, and capital investments which includes the payment

of income and dividends. Securities which are being traded on a stock exchange include stocks,

unit trusts, derivatives, pooled investment products and bonds. Indian stock market is about 200

years old. Prior to this the bills of exchange were in used, which was considered as a form by

which virtual stock can be traded. The first stock market which was organized was governed by

the rules and regulations and it came into the existence in the form of The Native Share and Stock

Brokers Association in the year 1875. After going through number of changes this is the better

10
association today as Bombay Stock Exchange is. During this period many other exchanges were

also launched. There are 19 stock exchanges which are recognize and are presently there, out of

the 19, 4 are at national level exchanger and the remaining are regional level exchanger. National

stock exchange (NSE) was established in 1992 and was the last exchange. The regional level

exchanger exist but trading in the exchanger is negligible. In the terms of listing, trading and

volume, the Indian stock market leader are National stock exchange (NSE) and Bombay stock

exchange (BSE). The market has a gone the post liberalization of Indian economy and also it has

witness the formation of security and stock exchange board of India (SEBI). The last 15 years of

Indian security market is considered is the most important part and also the sustainable

transparency in share market capital brought by SEBI. SEBI has also managed to bring in trust of

domestic as well as international investor.

NATIONAL STOCK EXCHANGE(NSE)

NSE is the leading stock exchange of India headquarters in Mumbai and was established in 1992.

NSE was the first exchange to provide a modern, fully automated screen based on electronic

trading system which offered easy trading facility to the investors.

NIFTY 51

Nifty is the index of the NSE. It comprises of 51 stock index companies, 51th being the TATA

DVR which is recently added. Nifty represents the overall performance of the NSE

11
NSE Timings

9:00a.m to 9:15 a.m Pre opening period( for modification)

9:15a.m to 9:50a.m- Block deal session (Block Deal is a single transaction, of a minimum

quantity of five lakh shares or a minimum value of Rs 5 crore, between two parties which are

mostly institutional players. The transaction happens through a separate trading window).

9:15 a.m to 3.30p.m Trading period

3.40p.m to 4:00p.m- Closing Session period

Products traded on NSE


Capital Market

A. Equities: Equity is the value of share issued by the company. Equity is traded on the

secondary market i.e these are previously issued. Currently, more than 1300 securities are

available for trading on the Exchange.

B. Indices: A stock market index is a measure of the relative value of a group of stocks in

numerical terms. As the stocks within an index change value, the index value changes.

C. Mutual Funds: In mutual funds, funds are collected from investors for the purpose of

investing in securities such as stocks, bonds, money market instruments and similar assets.

The main advantages of mutual funds is that they give small investors access to
professionally managed, diversified portfolios of equities, bonds and other securities,

which would be quite difficult to create with a small amount of capital.

D. IPO (Initial Public Offerings) : IPO is issued in the primary market. IPO is offered in

the market to raise the funds and to expand the business of the issuing company. It is the

largest source of funds for a company.

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E. Security Lending and Borrowing Scheme (SLBS): The Securities Lending and

Borrowing mechanism allows short sellers to borrow securities for making delivery. Short

Selling means selling of a stock that the seller does not own at the time of trade.

F. Sovereign Gold Bond Scheme: Sovereign Gold Bonds are Government securities

denominated in multiples of gram(s) of gold. The minimum quantity to be traded is 1 gm

and maximum to be 500 gms. They are substitute for investment in physical gold. The

returns are higher than the actual gold.

G. Equity Derivatives: The value of the derivative is derived from the one or more

underlying security. Option and future are the most common equity derivatives.

H. Currency Derivative: Currency Derivatives are available on four currency pairs viz. US

Dollars (USD), Euro (EUR), Great Britain Pound (GBP) and Japanese Yen (JPY). A

future contract is to exchange one currency for another at a specified date in the future at a

price (exchange rate) that is fixed on the purchase date.

NSE Bond Futures: An Interest Rate Futures contract is an agreement to buy or sell a debt
instrument at a specified future date at a price that is fixed today.The underlying security for
Interest Rate Futures is either Government Bond or T-Bill.

13
BOMBAY STOCK EXCHANGE(BSE)

BSE is the Asias first stock exchange. It is established in 1875,more than 5500 companies are
listed in the BSE. BSE provides a host of other services to capital market participants including
risk management, clearing, settlement, market data services and education.

BSE Timings
Pre-open Trading Session 09:00 09:15 Trading Session 09:15 15:30
Position Transfer Session 15:40 16:00 Closing Session 15:40 16:00

SENSEX
BSE's equity index - the S&P BSE SENSEX - is India's most widely tracked stock market
benchmark index. It is traded internationally on the EUREX as well as leading exchanges of the
BRCS nations (Brazil, Russia, China and South Africa).
Sensex is the measure of overall performance of the top 30 companies.
Products traded on BSE
a) Equity
b) Derivatives
c) Indices
d) Currency Derivative
e) IRD
Currently BSEs Interest Rate Derivative (IRD) Segment offers
91-day Government of India (GOI) Treasury Bill Futures
10 Year Government of India Futures

IMPACT OF THE INDUSTRY ON INDIAN ECONOMY

The movements in the stock market has a profound impact on the economy and the everyday

people. If there is a collapse in share prices, it leads to the widespread of economic disruption.

For Instance, the stock market crash of 1929 has a key impact which led to great depression of the

1930s.

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Economic effects of stock market

1. Wealth Effect- If the people lost their money on shares, they will be more resistant to spend

money, this will contribute to fall in consumer spending. Often, this effect will not be given too

much importance. However, people who buy shares are prepared to lose their money, their

spending patterns are usually independent of the shares prices.

2. Investment- Falling of the share prices may hamper the firm ability to raise finance on

the stock market. Firms who are expanding wish to borrow money by issuing more shares,

which provides them a low cost way of borrowing more money. However, it becomes more

difficult with the falling of the share prices.

3. Bond Market- A fall in the stock market may lead to other investments more attractive. People

can move out of shares and can invest into government bonds or gold.

Effect of Stock Market on the Ordinary people

1. Effect on Pensions- People with the private pension or investment trust will be affected with

the fall in the fall in the share prices of the stock market indirectly, as it will reduce the value of

the pension funds. Thus, future pension layouts will be lower.

2. Business Investment- It could be the source of business investment i.e firms can offer new

shares to finance investment which could create new job offers.

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1.2 OVERVIEW OF THE COMPANY

Founded in 1994, SMC Group is one of Indias leading financial services and investment

solutions providers and has been rated as Indias Best Equity, Derivatives & Currency

Broker and Broking house with the largest Distribution Network. Recently, it has been

awarded with the Best Equity Broking House Derivative Segment & Fastest Growing

Equity Broking House -Large Firm. A blend of extensive experience, diverse talent and

client focus has made us achieve this landmark.

Over the years, SMC has expanded its operations domestically as well as internationally.

Existing network includes regional offices at Mumbai, Kolkata, Chennai, Ahmadabad,

Jaipur, Hyderabad, Bangalore plus a growing network of branches & 2500+ registered sub-

brokers and authorized persons spread across500+ cities and towns in India.

They are amongst the first financial firms in India to expand operations in the lucrative gulf
market, by acquiring license for broking and clearing member with Dubai Gold and

Commodities exchange (DGCX).

VISION
Aspire to be a global organization having dominant position in financial and investment

service through customer centric approach.

MISSION

To help people make the right investment, the right way.

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VALUES

1. Passion- Helping People to achieve their financial goals.

2. Integrity- Being ethical builds trust.

3. Relationship- One transaction, lifetime relationship.

4. Innovation- Being ahead. With research and technology.

5. Trustworthy - Keeping the promise every time.

TURNOVER OF THE COMPANY

NAMEOF THE SUBSIDIARY COMPANY TURNOVER(in Rs)

SMC Capitals Limited 119011378

Moneywise Financial Services Pvt.Ltd 270164020

SMC Comtrade Ltd. 419824497

SMC Insurance Brokers Pvt.Ltd 424930829

SMC Comex International DMCC


In USD 2449819
In INR 162503586

SMC Investments and Advisors Ltd. 189887502

Indunia Realtech Ltd. (formally known as 2172459

SMC ARC Ltd.

SMC Finvest Ltd. 12479805

Moneywise Finvest Ltd. 1625324

17
BASED ON COMPETITORS

S.NO COMPANY BROKERAGE BROKERAGE PRODUCTS AND


NAME FOR FOR SERVICES
DELIVERY INTERADAY
1. SMC Broking and Clearing,
Distribution, Financing and
Loan Syndication, Wealth
Management, Insurance
Broking, Investment
Banking, Real Estate
Advisory, Institutional Desk,
NRI and PI services,
.20% .02% Depository Services
2. MOTILAL .50% 0.05% Private Wealth Management,
OSWAL Retail Broking and
Distribution, Institutional
Broking, Asset Management,
Investment Banking, Private
Equity, Commodity Broking,
Currency Broking, Principal
Strategies and Home Finance
3. Angel Broking 0.128%-0.4% 0.0128%-0.04% Equity, Currency Trading,
Commodity Trading,
Derivatives, Life Insurance,
Mutual Funds
4. ICICI Direct 0.75%-0.25% 0.75%-0.25% Equity, Derivatives, Mutual
Funds, ETF, Insurance, FD/
Bonds, Loans, Tax, E-locker,
NPS
5. Religare 0.50% -0.10% 0.050%-0.010% Stock, Derivatives, Currency
and Commodity

PROMOTERS OF THE COMPANY

Management Group Designation


Mr. S C Aggarwal Chairman and Managing Director, SMC Group

Mr. Mahesh C Gupta Vice chairman and Managing Director, SMC Group

Mr. D K Aggarwal Chairman & Managing Director - SMC Investments & Advisors Ltd;
Chairman & Managing Director - SMC Capitals Limited; Chairman

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SMC Comtrade Limited ; Chairman-SMC Real Estate Advisors
Pvt. Ltd; Director-SMC Comex International DMCC
Mr. Ajay Garg Whole Time Director SMC Global Securities Limited
Mr. Anurag Bansal Whole Time Director SMC Global Securities Limited
Ms. Shweta Aggarwal Director- SMC Capitals Limited

Mr. Pravin Agarwal Whole Time Director - SMC Insurance Brokers Pvt. Ltd.

Mr Himanshu Gupta Director - Indunia Realtech Ltd., CFO SMC Comtrade Ltd.

Mr. N.D Gupta Independent and Non- Executive Director


Mr. Satish Chandra Independent and Non- Executive Director
Gupta
Mr. K.M Agrawal Independent and Non- Executive Director
Mr. R.C Jindal Independent and Non- Executive Director
Mr. H.D Khunteta Independent and Non- Executive Director
Mr. Chandra Wadhwa Independent and Non- Executive Director
Dr. Madhu Vij Independent and Non- Executive Director
Mr. Finney Cherian Independent and Non- Executive Director
Mr. G.S Sundararajan Proposed Non- Executive Director
Mr. R.P Mahipal Independent and Non-Executive, Director-SMC Finvest Ltd., SMC
Insurance Brokers Pvt. Ltd., SMC Real Estate Advisors Pvt. Ltd.
Mr. Himanshu Gupta Director and CFO Moneywise Financial Services Pvt. Ltd., Director-
SMC Comtrade Ltd., Indunia Realtech Ltd
Ms. Reema Garg Director, SMC Investments &
Advisors Ltd.)
Chief Human Resource Officer
(CHRO)- SMC Global Securities Ltd..,
Ms. Akanksha Gupta Whole Time Director, SMC Insurance Brokers Pvt. Ltd.
Mr. Lalit Aggarwal Whole Time Director, SMC Real Estate Advisors Pvt. Ltd.,
Director- Moneywise Finvest Limited
Mr. Pravin Kr. Whole Time Director, SMC Insurance Brokers Pvt. Ltd.
Agarwal
Mr. V.K. Jamar Group CFO

19
Mr. Suman Kumar [E.V.P.(Corporate Affairs & Legal) & Company Secretary] and
Compliance Officer
Mr. Mohit Shyngle (Senior Vice-President)

Mr. M.K. Gupta (Senior Vice-President)


Mr. Ashok Kumar (Senior Vice-President)
Aggarwal
Mr. S.S Bansal CFO- SMC Investments and Advisors Ltd.
Ms. Nidhi Bansal Vice President
Mr. Om Prakash Head- Debt (SMC Capitals Ltd.)
Aggarwal
Ms. Sonal Shah Head- M&A (SMC Capitals Ltd.)

CSR ACTIVITIES

The company has contributed towards Education, Health Facilities, Rural Area Projects and Slum

Area Development Projects. The company mainly focus on hunger, malnutrition, poverty,

education, women empowerment which has been described under schedule 7 of the companies

Act 2013 for the purpose of CSR Activity. The net profit of the company is Rs. 163231348 and

total amount spend is Rs. 2700000.

Project Activities Sector Amount Spent on Project


Sewa Bharti Earthquake Relief Fund 500000
Bharat Lok Shiksha For running Ekal Vidhyalaya 1000000
Informal education of Tribal
Children
Chtrapati Shivaji Samaj Kaly For promotion of education 200000

20
Geographical Spread- Smc Global Securities Ltd. covers 550+ branches

21
MARKET SHARE OF THE COMPANY

Market Share(Lakhs crores)- NSE, BSE,


Products MSEI

Equity Broking 41.51

Currency Broking 10.88

Commodity Broking 2.76

Market Share

5%
20%
Equity Broking
Currency Broking
Commodity Broking
75%

22
Chapter 2

Review of Literature

In the study, Apak, Akman, Cankaya and Sonmezer, (2012), it includes the major exporters and

importers to explain the price fluctuations in the gold prices. India, China, Turkey, Russia, USA,

Indonesia, Switzerland, UK and Euro zone countries are the top gold demanding countries. On

the other hand, China, Australia, USA, South Africa, Russia, Canada and Indonesia are the top

Gold producing countries according to World Gold Council. The change in USD, Swiss Franc,

Canadian Dollar influences the Gold positively or negatively.

Tully and Lucey, (2007), scrutinize the relationship between the gold price and the US Dollar.

Their study indicates that the datasets which is being used in the analysis for various economic

variables spanning from 1983 to 2001. The study also confirms that there are few macroeconomic

factors that may impact the gold prices, the exchange rate of domestic currency to US Dollar.

In another study ,Capie, Mills and Woods, (2004) used weekly data for last thirty days for the

spot gold price of gold to USD to analyze that up to what extent gold be acted as a hedge.This

study concluded that the relationship between Gold and USD is inelastic and negative. But, this

also can be shifted over time. The yellow metal is basically dependent on the political events and

uncertainties

23
Chapter 3

Project Objectives and Methadology

3.1 Objective of Study


Primary Objective:-
To study the relationship between Gold and USD prices
Secondary Objective:-
To study how the fundamental factors affecting the price of Gold
To study the movement of Gold in the Indian commodity market
To study how the price of Gold will fluctuate in the Indian commodity market
To find whether gold is a good investment

Research Methodology
Research Methodology is a way in which the researchers specify about how they will retrieve the

data which is important to take the companys decisions.

It is a way to systematically solve the research problem. Methodology includes the research

procedure by which the study is done. The elements of research methodology are research design,

sampling procedure and the data collection method and analysis procedure.
Research Design
Research Design is a framework of how the study has been done and how the data has been

collected. In this study we have use quantitative research design because here we have used the

traditional mathematical and statistical means to measure the results.

3.2 Scope of the study


The study will help us to know the relationship between Gold and USD
The study also helps us to understand the causes for the fluctuations of Gold prices
The study also is a guide to investors as to when to invest in Gold

24
Chapter 4

Project Methodology

Data Collection of the Study


Secondary Data
The secondary data is the already existing data from the other sources i.e. investing.com and
mcxindia.com. The data is descriptive in nature. This data is cheaper and is easily available.
This type of data is used to save time.

Period of Study
The study covers a period of 6 months spanning from October 2016 to March 2017
4.1 Statistical Tools Used
Correlation Analysis
Regression Analysis
Mean
Standard Deviation
Skewness
Kurtosis

4.2 Technical tools used


RSI (Relative Strength Index)
MA (Moving average)
Stochastic

25
Chapter 5

Introduction to the topic

GOLD

Gold is a chemical element

Symbol = Au

Atomic no = 79

Gold is a dense, soft, shiny and the most metafile and ductile pure metal with bright yellow color
and luster which is traditionally considered attractive and is maintained without oxidizing air and

water. Gold is serve as a symbol of wealth and is one of the coinage metal. Gold has store of

value throughout the history, the standards of gold provides a basis of monetary policy. Gold has

meant prestige, wealth and power, and it is linked to the variety of ideology for centuries. The

natural beauty and rarity of gold has made it equally important and precious to men and women.

Owning gold has been a safeguard against disaster. On the failure of paper money and men has

turned to gold as the source of monetary wealth there is no difference exist in todays era. There

has been fluctuation in every market and also there are downturns in sum, the gold holds is its own

expectation. For planning a future gold is good way to invest as the amount of gold is limited in

the world. The gold is homogeneous, fungible and indestructible, these attributes set it apart from

other commodity and tend to make it returns insensitive to business cycle fluctuations.

Gold is bought and sold by people for:-

1. Use in jewellery

2. Industrial application

3. Investment purpose

26
USES OF GOLD

= gold is money

= gold is insurance

= gold is an investment

= gold is usefulness as safe haven

= gold is useful as asset diversifier

GOLD INVESTMENT

It is the most popular investment. Gold is generally bought as a hedge instrument against crises

like economic, political and social (and includes investment market declines, currency failure,

inflation, war, social unrest. Through the use of future and derivative the gold is subject to

speculation. The certain factor suggests that the gold behave more like a currency than a

commodity which are:-

1. The history of gold standard

2. The role of gold reserve in central banking

3. Gold low correlation with others commodity prices, and

4. Its pricing in relation to fiat currency.

27
INVESTMENT VECHICLE
BARS

Buying bullion gold bars is the most traditional way in investing in gold. The gold bars are

available in different prices. They generally carry low premium that of gold bullion points. The

risk of forgery increases with the increase in bars sizes because of their less stringent parameters.

Gold bars cannot be easily weighted and measured against the known value.

COINS

Gold coins are the most common way of owning gold. The prices of coins are set according to

their respective weights, plus the premium which is based on demand and supply.

28
EXCHANGE TRADED PRODUCTS (ETPs)

The exchange traded product in gold include ETs, ETNs, and CEFs which are traded like share on

the major stock exchanges. The 1 gold ETs was launched in March 2003 on the Australian stock

exchange and it originally represent exactly 0.1 troy ounce (3.1) of gold. SED are gold shares is

the second largest traded fund (ETs) in the world (market capitalization, November 2010)

The two ways of selling ETs shares are:-

1. Investor can sell the individually share to other investors, or

2. They can sell the creation unit back to the ETs.

THE FACTORS AFFECTING GOLD PRICE

The major factors which affect the gold prices are:-

1. Demand for consumer goods

2. Value of dollar

3. Inflation prospects

4. Lack of safe haven

5. Gold reserve

29
6. Supply
7. Speculation
8. Increase in the demand for exchange traded paper baged products
9. Growth in demand jewels
10. Monetary policy
11. U.S government borrowing

SUPPLY, DEMAMD AND FACTORS AFFECTING PRICE


China is the world largest gold producer nation and producer included:-
1. Australia
2. U.S.
3. Russia
4. South Africa
5. Canada
6. Ghana
7. Indonesia
8. Uzbekistan
GOLD SUPPLY- 5 YEARS
Table 1:

Indian supply Year-on-year


estimates (tonnes) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 % change
Supply
994.
Gross Bullion imports 974.5 959.4 8 1,065.0 648.3 -39

of which dor1 23.2 36.9 84.1 229.0 141.9 -38


898.
Net bullion imports 842.8 876.4 6 913.6 557.7 -39

Scrap 118.0 95.8 92.5 80.2 81.8 2


Domestic supply from
other sources2 10.0 9.6 9.9 9.2 9.9 8
1,00
Total supply 3 970.8 981.8 1.0 1,003.0 649.5 -35

Source* world gold council

30
GOLD DEMAND- 5 YEARS

Table 2:
year on

year

Gold Demand( tonnes) 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 change(%)

Jewellery 2133.1 2691.6 2488.1 2400.2 2040.3 -15

Technology 381.3 355.9 348.7 332 323.4 -3

Electronics 266.5 249.8 277.5 262.1 255.7 -2

Other Industrial 86.4 83.1 51.2 51 49.7 -2

Dentistry 28.4 23 19.9 18.9 18 -5

Investment 1610.2 800.2 861 937.7 1574.2 68

Total Bar and coin Demand 1303.5 1715.7 1044.8 1066 1042 -2

Physical Bar Demand 1008.6 1346.4 760.5 766.6 769.6

Official coin 184.8 268.7 204.8 224.3 207.2 -8

Medal 110.1 100.6 79.5 75.1 65.2 -13

ETFs 306.7 -915.5 -183.8 -128.3 532.1

Cental Bank&Other Institutions 79.2 480.8 569.3 623.8 583.9 -35

Gold Demand 4217.5 4739.2 4693.9 4471.6 4281.6 2


Source* world gold council

India is largest importing nation of precious metal with the main consumption for jewellery.

Dollar is important to look upon when we are talking of gold prices. They have an inverse

correlations with each other i.e. the price of dollar is increase the price of gold is decrease and

vice-versa. The gold price increases at the time of recession and economic prosperity.

31
Table 3:
Top 15 reported official gold holdings (as at March 2017)

Tonnes % of reserves

1 United States 8,133.5 75%

2 Germany 3,377.9 69%

3 IMF 2,814.0 -

4 Italy 2,451.8 68%

5 France 2,435.9 64%

6 China 1,842.6 2%

7 Russia 1,680.1 17%

8 Switzerland 1,040.0 6%

9 Japan 765.2 2%

10 Netherlands 612.5 64%

11 India 557.8 6%

12 ECB 504.8 27%

13 Turkey 427.8 16%

14 Taiwan 423.6 4%

15 Portugal 382.5 55%


Source* world gold council

32
Tonnes
9,000.00
8,000.00
7,000.00
6,000.00
5,000.00
4,000.00
3,000.00
2,000.00
1,000.00
0.00

GOLD IMPORT (Value in US$)


Table 4:
Commodity 2016-2017 2015-2016 2014-2015 2013-2014 2012-2013
Gold 27518.03 31770.74 34407.18 28704.13 53820.63
Source* www.commerce.nic.in

Gold import (in US$)


60000

50000

40000

30000

20000

10000

0
2016-2017 2015-2016 2014-2015 2013-2014 2012-2013

33
GOLD EXPORT (Value in US$)
Table5
Commodity 2016-2017 2015-2016 2014-2015 2013-2014 2012-2013
Gold 5275.45 4984.71 2844.25 3031.84 4366.10
Source* www.commerce.nic.in

Gold export (in US$)


6000

5000

4000

3000

2000

1000

0
2016-2017 2015-2016 2014-2015 2013-2014 2012-2013

GOLD CONTRACT SPECIFICATION

Gold

Trading Unit 1 Kg

Quotation / Base value 10gms

Maximum order size 10 kg

Tick Size (minimum price movement) Re.1 per 10 grams

Initial margin 5%

34
Gold Mini

Trading Unit 100gms

Quotation/ Base value 10 gms

Tick Size(minimum price movement) Re.1 per 10 grams

Initial margin 5%

Gold Petal

Trading Unit 1 gram

Quotation/ Base value 1 gram

Tick Size(minimum price movement) Re.1 per 1 gram

Initial margin Minimum 5 % or based on SPAN whichever

is higher

Gold Guinea

Trading Unit 8 grams

Quotation/ Base value 8 grams

Minimum order size 10 kg

Tick Size(minimum price movement) Re. 1 per 8 grams

Initial margin 4%

35
Chapter 6

Data Analysis

6.1 MATRIX FORMATION

USD/INR GOLD SILVER

USD/INR 1.00 -0.356278 -0.261552

GOLD -0.3562776 1.00 0.8944292

SILVER -0.2615521 0.8944292 1.00

Interpretation
This shows that there is an inverse relationship between Gold and USD, Silver and USD and a
positive relationship between Gold and Silver due to macroeconomic factors such as political

events and uncertainties at that span of time i.e from October 2016- March 2017. By calculating

the correlation of Gold and USD of last 5 years we get the value of -10.812 (5 years weekly data).
Thus we can say that the correlation is more in 6 months data due to the increased demand in third
quarter.
CALCULATION OF CORRELATION AND REGRESSION

R R^2

Gold-Silver 0.894429197 0.8000036

Gold-USD -0.3562776 0.1269337

USD-Silver -0.2615521 0.0684095

36
REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF GOLD-USD

USD-Gold
69

68.5 y = -0.0003x + 76.404


R = 0.1269
68

67.5

67

66.5

66

65.5

65

64.5
26000.00 27000.00 28000.00 29000.00 30000.00 31000.00 32000.00

INTERPRETATION
X-Axis represents Gold Prices in INR.

Y-Axis represents USD prices in INR.

The equation shows that the coefficient for gold in INR is 0.0003. The coefficient indicates

that for every additional Rupee in Gold you can expect USD to decreaseby an average of

0.0003 Rupees.

The blue fitted line graphically shows the same information. If you move left or right along

the x-axis by an amount that represents thousand rupees change in Gold price, the fitted

line falls by 0.0003 rupees.

If the fitted line was flat (a slope coefficient of zero), the expected value for USD would

not change no matter how far up and down the line you go.

37
REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF SILVER-USD

Silver-USD
69

68.5
y = -0.0002x + 74.276
68 R = 0.0684

67.5

67

66.5

66

65.5

65

64.5
38000.00 39000.00 40000.00 41000.00 42000.00 43000.00 44000.00 45000.00 46000.00 47000.00

INTERPRETATION
X-Axis represents Silver Prices in INR.

Y-Axis represents USD prices in INR.

The equation shows that the coefficient for Silver in INR is 0.0002. The coefficient

indicates that for every additional Rupee in Silver you can expect USD to decrease by an

average of 0.0002 Rupees.

The blue fitted line graphically shows the same information. If you move left or right along

the x-axis by an amount that represents thousand rupees change in Silver price, the fitted

line falls by 0.0002 rupees.

If the fitted line was flat (a slope coefficient of zero), the expected value for USD would

not change no matter how far up and down the line you go.

38
REGRESSION ANALYSIS OF SILVER-GOLD

GOLD-SILVER
32000.00
y = 0.6409x + 1810.6
R = 0.8
31000.00

30000.00

29000.00

28000.00

27000.00

26000.00
38000.00 39000.00 40000.00 41000.00 42000.00 43000.00 44000.00 45000.00 46000.00 47000.00

INTERPRETATION
X-Axis represents Silver Prices in INR.

Y-Axis represents Gold prices in INR.

The equation shows that the coefficient for Silver in INR is 0.640. The coefficient indicates

that for every additional Rupee in Silver you can expect Gold to increase by an average of

0.640 Rupees.

The blue fitted line graphically shows the same information. If you move left or right along

the x-axis by an amount that represents thousand rupees change in Silver price, the fitted

line falls by 0.640 rupees.

If the fitted line was flat (a slope coefficient of zero), the expected value for Gold would

not change no matter how far up and down the line you go.

39
Calculation of mean, SD, skewness and kurtosis on Gold Data
Mean 28940.59
SD 1029.922
Range 27910.67 29970.51
Skewness 0.031449
Kurtosis -0.28806

GOLD
32000.00

31000.00

30000.00

29000.00
GOLD
28000.00

27000.00

26000.00
0 20 40 60 80 100 120 140

From the following table the mean value of the 6 months gold price came out to be

28940.59 which simply describes the average value of the data.

Value of SD or Standard deviation is 1029.922 by which the range is being calculated as

mean+-SD and it comes out to be 27910.67-29970.51 and nearly the difference between

the highest and the lowest value comes out to be 2059.84 which shows high deviation in

the data and this is because of the high prevailing prices of gold in the third quarter because

of rise in demand for gold due to the Indian festival DHAN TERAS.

Value of skewness is positive which indicates the graph will be positively skewed and more

of the values will lie on the right side of the graph.

Value of kurtosis is negative which shows the flatness of the graph and simply describes

the deviation in the data.

40
6.2 IMPACT OF GST ON GOLD

Before After GST


GST(Rs) rollout(Rs)

A Price of Gold(100gm) 995, in Rupees 263636 263636

B Custom Duty (10%) 26364 26364

C A+B 290000 290000

D Excise(1%) 2900 0

E C+D 292900 290000

F VAT(1.2%) 3515 0

G E+F 296415 290000

H GST(3%) 0 8700

I G+H 296415 298700

J Making Charges(12% of gold price+ customs) 34800 34800

K I+J 331215 333500

L GST on making charges(18%) 0 6264

Total price of Jewellery(K+L) 331215 339764

Total and Duties 32779 41328

Taxes and Duties as and of Gold value 12.43 15.68

Effective increase in Gold Jewellery prices


after GST Implementation 3.24 percentage points

41
Interpretation

Reserve Bank of India holds a gold reserve of 557.77 tones, out of which 265.49 is held in the

safe custody with Bank of England and Bank of Settlement (BIS). Gold, Gold Jewellery will be

taxed 3% against the current effective price of 2%. The higher tax would make Jewellery

buying costlier, thus the move to levy the higher tax will benefit more to larger player in the

organized structure. The reason why jewelers are not restocking the gold because number of

jewelers have illegal stocks which they had to liquidate before the GST rolls out. It is said that

excise of 1 per cent paid on the stock is non-cenvatable. This is the reason why gold is available

at a discount in the local market.

The gold demand in India is 674 tones in 2016. Even if the GST rates fixed at a lower rate, the

gold demand in India will be range from 650- 750 tones.The current tax on gold is around 12 %

which includes customs duty, excise duty and VAT. The council is of the opinion that the GST

rate should be below that as it will bring about a behavioral change among the consumers.

Despite of the gold showing 15% growth in Q1. It is assumed that it will remain to grow in the

second quarter due to good Akshay Trithiya sales. Kerala has recommended 5% GST on gold.

The rate has not yet been decided for the exchange of old gold to new gold. If there will be a low

GST rate then it will bring down the prices and if it is high then industry may take more time to

adjust it.

42
Chapter 7

Fundamental Facts

6.1 EFFECT OF SUBPRIME CRISES ON GOLD

Subprime crises are the crises which was started in 2008 and had affected the mortgage industry

because of the borrowers being approved for the loan which they cant afford. Thus, a rise in

foreclosures led to the collapse of many lending institutions. These crises affected the global credit

market leading to higher interest rates as well as decreased the availability of credit. The Gold

prices started rose in 2009, but this stage of gold to rise was started in 2008. At the time Gold was

being sold as the investors sought to fund so as to shore up their losses from the other markets.

The above chart shows that the gold fell at $681 on 24. October 2008 and settle on $729.10 At

December 2008, the monetary policy meeting was held to stabilize the market as well as the

economy. First it voted to reduce the Federal funds target from 0%-0.25%, Second, they decided

to buy $600 billion in agency debt and agency mortgage backed securities.

Thus, it was a start to a big inflation period.

In this, Gold was traded above $1000 level whereas Comex Gold Futures settles at $1096.20 an

ounce on 31 December, 2009 a 24% rise from December 2008, where the price was $884.30

43
6.2 IMPACT OF US NON- FARM EMPLOYMENT PAYROLL ON GOLD

Non farm payroll is connected to the people who are engaged in the activity other than farming. It

measures the change in the number of people employed in the previous month compared to the

current month. Higher payrolls leads to negative impact on precious metals (Gold and Silver)

while positive impact on base metals. On the other hand, lower payrolls leads to positive impact

on precious metals and a negative impact to base metals. affects the US dollar, the Foreign

exchange market, the bond market, and the stock market. The nonfarm payroll statistic is released

monthly, on the first Friday of the month, by the U.S.Bureau of Labor Statistics as part of the

Employment Situation Report on the state of the labour market.Nonfarm payrolls are also closely

watched by the Fed, as it is an indicator of how quick the economy is growing There is no clear

long-term relationship between the gold price and job gains. Employment statistics move the

price of gold in the short-term. Good news from the labor market is negative for the shiny metal.

In such a case, the price of gold tends to fall on the day when the Nonfarm Payroll Report comes

out.Spot gold had dropped 0.2 per cent to $1,262.95 per ounce by 0054 GMT. It has fallen0.3 per

cent for the week and could register its first weekly decline in four weeks. U.S. gold futures fell

0.4 per cent to $1,265.60 an ounce.

6.3 IMPACT OF FED INTEREST RATE HIKE ON GOLD

U.S central bank increase their quarter short term rates by 1- 1.25%. These interest rate hikes

will boost up the dollar and will also boost up the bond yields up which will lead put pressure on

gold price. Thus this interest rate hike would make it less attractive to hold non- yielding bullion,

while dollar boosting up.

44
Chapter 8

Technical Analysis

TECHNICAL ANALYSIS

STOCHASTIC OSCILLATOR
The stochastic oscillator is a momentum indicator that compares the closing price of a security to

the range of its prices over a certain period of time. The sensitivity of the oscillator to market

movements is reducible by adjustment of the time period or by taking a average by moving

average method of the result.

Blue line= K%

Red line= R%

If blue line cuts the red line from below it indicates the upward trend in the price. But if the red

line cuts the blue line towards down it will be showing the downward trend in the price in the near

future.

45
RSI (RELATIVE STRENGTH INDEX)

The relative strength index (RSI) is a technical indicator used to analyze the financial markets.

It is used to figure out the current and historical strength or weakness of a stock or the closing

prices of a recent trading period.

The RSI is classified as a momentum oscillator because it is used to measure the velocity and
magnitude of directional price movements where, Momentum is the rate at which the price rise or

fall.

The RSI is mostly used on a 14-day timeframe, with the measurement scale of range 0 to 100, with

high and low levels marked at 70 and 30 respectively. Shorter or longer timeframes are used for

alternately shorter or longer predictions according to a persons need. Extreme high and low

levels80 and 20, or 90 and 10occur less frequently indicating the stronger momentum.

46
MOVING AVERAGE MA

A widely used indicator in technical analysis because it helps to smooth out the price action by

filtering out the noise from uneven price fluctuations. A moving average (MA) is a trend-

following indicator as it is based on past prices.

The two basic and commonly used MAs are:

1) the simple moving average (SMA), and

2) the Exponential Moving Average (EMA).

47
TREND ANALYSIS

Source*investing.com
INTERPRETATION

Moving Average: The moving average line is showing the downward trend as the line is above

the candles and is moving downwards. This shows the downward prediction in the gold trend.

Stochastic: Blue line shows the K% whereas red line shows the R%. Since both the lines are

moving downwards this also shows the downward trend but until the blue line cuts the red line and

moves upward. Also this trend is showing the over selling situation as this is below the 20. We

will be making strategies at this point and will buy once the line again cuts the 20 level from below

and starts rising.

RSI: Although RSI trend line is also showing the downward trend but there is no over selling or

over buying of the commodity.

By these three we can only predict the downward trend in this commodity.

48
PATTERNS

CONSOLIDATION

Consolidation is used in technical analysis to describe the movement of a stock's price within a

defined range of price. Consolidation is generally regarded as a period where decision cannot be

taken, which starts and ends when the price of the asset moves above or below the prices in the

definite pattern. Consolidation pattern is also defined as a set of financial statements that

represents a parent company and a subsidiary company as one.

Source*Ticker plant software

Target Amount= Highest price-lowest price (in the consolidation range)

Stop loss= Target Amount/2

49
DOUBLE BOTTOM

A double bottom is a charting pattern which used in technical analysis. It is used to describe the

drop of a stock or index, another drop to the similar level as the previous drop, and finally the

other bound. The double bottom looks like the alphabet "W". The lower touch is marked as the

support level.

Source*tradingview.com
Target Amount= Price at Resistance Price at support

Stop Loss= Support Price

For instance: In the above figure we can calculate the target amount and stop loss as:

Target amount=81538.4 - 80948.7= 589.7

Stop loss = 80948.7

With this we can say that we can get a maximum profit of the target amount i.e. Rs.589.7 and will

sell the stock when the price will reach Rs. 80948.7 i.e. we will not bear the loss more than stop

loss.

50
Rectangle

Source*tradingview.com

Interpretation
Where, target amount = upper range of rectangle lower range of rectangle
Stop loss= target amount/2
It can indicate both bearish and bullish trend depending on the breakout of the pattern. In this figure
it is showing the bearish trend as the break out is when the prices are following the downturn.
For instance: upper range of rectangle is indicating the price i.e. $1697.74 and
The lower range is $1632.78.
Target amount = 1697.74 1632.78 = 64.96
Stop loss = 32.48
Here we will not bear the loss of more than $ 32.48 and will set the target up so that we can earn
the profit of $ 64.96.

51
STRATEGIES

Buy strategy using MACD

Source*investing.com

Profit booking within 3 hours.

Since the blue line i.e. slow line is intersecting the red line i.e. fast line from below therefore we
have created the buy strategy at this point.

Opening price: 29064

Closing price: 29411

300-350 points cover

Stop loss = 138.80 (40% of points cover)

Where, Blue line is slow line as it is showing the trend for 20 days

And red line is representing the fast line as it is showing the trend for 9 days.

52
Sell strategy using MACD

Source*investing.com

Profit booking within 3 hours.

Since the red line i.e. fast line is cutting the blue line i.e. slow line and is moving up therefore we
have created the sell strategy at this point.

Opening price: 28978

Closing price: 28908

60-80 points cover

Stop loss = 28 (40% of points cover)

Where, Blue line is slow line as it is showing the trend for 20 days

And red line is representing the fast line as it is showing the trend for 9 days.

53
Buy strategy using MACD

Source*investing.com

Profit booking within 3 hrs. (45 mins)

Since the blue line i.e. slow line is intersecting the red line i.e. fast line from below therefore we
have created the buy strategy at this point.

Opening price: 28544

Closing price: 28688

140-150 points cover

Stop loss = 57.6 (40% of points cover)

Where, Blue line is slow line as it is showing the trend for 20 days

And red line is representing the fast line as it is showing the trend for 9 days.

54
Sell strategy using MACD

Source*investing.com

Profit booking within 3 hrs. (45 mins)

Since the red line i.e. fast line is cutting the blue line i.e. slow line and is moving up therefore we
have created the sell strategy at this point.

Opening price: 28596

Closing price: 28525

65-75 points cover

Stop loss = 28.4 (40% of points cover)

Where, Blue line is slow line as it is showing the trend for 20 days

And red line is representing the fast line as it is showing the trend for 9 days.

55
Buy strategy using MACD

Source*investing.com

Profit booking within 3 hrs. (60 mins)

Since the blue line i.e. slow line is intersecting the red line i.e. fast line from below therefore we
have created the buy strategy at this point.

Opening price: 28710

Closing price: 28771

55-65 points cover

Stop loss = 24.4 (40% of points cover)

Where, Blue line is slow line as it is showing the trend for 20 days

And red line is representing the fast line as it is showing the trend for 9 days.

56
Sell strategy using MACD

Source*investing.com

Profit booking within 3 hours. (60 mins)

Since the red line i.e. fast line is cutting the blue line i.e. slow line and is moving up therefore we
have created the sell strategy at this point.

Opening price: 28765

Closing price: 28713

50-60 points cover

Stop loss = 20.8 (40% of points cover)

Where, Blue line is slow line as it is showing the trend for 20 days

And red line is representing the fast line as it is showing the trend for 9 days.

57
Chapter 9

Findings, Recommendations and Conclusion

FINDINGS
Present project has been undertaken to find out the relationship between Gold and Dollar, Silver

and Gold. It has been found out by calculating the previous prices of Gold and Dollar.

Correlation

Negative Correlation between Gold- USD (-0.356278)

When the values of the correlation change in the opposite direction, there is a negative correlation.

Both the prices are moving in an opposite direction i.e. when gold price is decreasing USD is

increasing and vice versa. There is a negative correlation between Gold and USD prices.

Positive Correlation between Gold- Silver (0.8944292)

When the values of the correlation change in the same direction, there is a positive correlation.

Both the prices are moving in an same direction i.e. when gold price is increasing silver prices

also increasing and vice versa. There is a negative correlation between Gold and Silver prices.

Regression

Regression 0.8 gold silver

This indicates that Gold is 80% dependent on silver prices. So, there is a relationship between

Gold and Silver prices.

58
Regression 0.1269 gold- usd

This indicates that there is less dependency of Gold on dollar prices. So, there is negative, inelastic

relationship between Gold and USD prices.

Standard Deviation(1029.922)

It has been find out that in the span of October 2016- March 2017 there is a high volatility in the

movement of Gold prices due to event took place such as AKSHAYTRITIYA. Therefore, the

standard deviation is positive.

RECOMMENDATIONS

There are five ways of investment in Gold i.e. Jewellery, Investment in terms of bars and coins,
Technology, ETFs and Through central banks and other institutions. Investors can divide their
investment in gold in different segments which means Investors should invest in Gold in partial
terms.
Investors not to buy Gold in bulk quantity, it is recommended to buy in small quantities as this

will not trouble the investors when the prices go down. Also, all the investment should not be made

at a single price and should be invested a little amount at one time. The investors should first

analyze the trend of the Gold and then place an order. It is also recommended to avoid investing

in physical Gold terms buy ETFs and Gold bonds.


Gold is one of the best source of investment, as investors should invest when the market is too

risky.

59
CONCLUSION

Gold is considered to be the saving instrument in India and it is used very often to hedge against
the inflation, Geopolitical and economic conditions and it is expected that the gold is considered

to be an alternative asset for holding the idle money for speculative purposes.

But the another aspect to the study is that there is a risk involved in investing in Gold. It is better

to analyze the risk before investing in Gold.

Therefore, I conclude that we should invest in gold by analyzing the past trends and checking the

technical aspects as well as the fundamental aspects. From the study I conclude that the investor

should invest in gold to gain short term profit.

Limitations of the study


The analysis of the investment is mainly based on the historical data
The analysis done does not give guarantee of what happened in the past will also continue
in future

The findings/fundamental facts may be useful for the investors, but their investment

decisions mainly depend on their level of expectation and will be based on the future

performance of the market.

60
BIBLIOGRAPHY

WEBSITES

1. www.investing.com
2. www.mcxindia.com
3. www.nseindia.com
4. www.bseindia.com
5. www.ncdex.com
6. in.reuters.com
7. www.bloomberg.com
8. www.economictimes.indiatimes.com
9. commerce.nic.in
10. www.tradingview.com
11.www.google.com
12. www.gold.org

REFERENCES
Patel Gaurav, (July 3,2016), Commodity Market: With Special Reference to Gold and
Silver, retrieved june 5,2017 , from https://scholar.google.co.in/scholar.
Prakash p. and Sundar Rajan S., (August 1st 2014), An Emperical Analysis on the
Relationship between Gold and Silver with Special Reference to the National Level
commodity exchanges, India, retrieved june 10th 2010, from
https://scholar.google.co.in/scholar.

61
Annexure

Work Done In The Company

CALCULATION OF RETURNS OF NIFTY FIFTY

NIFTY 51 RETURNS
S.No. 2014-2015 2015-2016 2016-2017 3 Year

Automobile
1 Bajaj Auto -3.215588405 19.30724983 16.60467 34.64437
2 Bosch 133.3871938 -18.23998332 9.46258 1.088737
3 Eicher Motor 166.8481087 20.57090234 0.33403 329.2124
4 Hero Motocop 16.04536663 11.58799909 13.978 29.40258
5 Mahindra & Mahindra 21.11756908 1.927933996 6.29388 0.312226
6 Maruti Suzuki 87.51616584 0.512529244 61.87337 206.9202
7 Tata Motors 38.01580334 -29.73464195 20.49922 0.168569
8 Tata Motors (DVR) 63.80928854 -13.02970894 -2.150165 0.394022

Energy
9 Gail 0.82424887 -8.356904088 6.214689 -0.02659
10 ONGC -5 -35.28963415 -13.75291 -42.3676
11 NTPC 901.6556291 -12.25740552 28.98213 37.41722
12 BPCL 76.47058824 11.60493827 -27.88889 41.39434
13 Indian Oil Corporation 31.42857143 6.288032454 -2.025316 38.21429
14 Reliance Industries -11.75213675 26.68202206 27.04524 41.02564
15 Tata Power -9.294117647 -16.03896104 45.3125 9.411765
16 Power Grid 38.33333333 -4.137931034 40.91559 87.61905

Banking
17 Yes Bank 9706.486% 6.043518235 0.788047 2.736562
18 State Bank of India -0.860744642 -0.272608126 0.510425 -0.847
19 Indusland Bank 0.765467769 0.092099323 0.472871 1.839793
20 Kotak Mohindra Bank 0.681390436 -0.481705692 0.281422 0.116702
21 HDFC Bank 36.57852564 4.737459666 34.67301 92.64824
22 Bank of Baroda -77.00% -0.12 0.12 -0.7652

62
23 Axis Bank -61.10% -28.20% 8.90% -66.5781
24 HDFC Ltd
25 ICICI -74.2228 -26.7678 16.177 -77.3806
26 Indiabulls Finance 134.8558198 16.49041047 59.71688 336.9606

Metals
27 Coal India 25.35405665 -19.55083582 0.222603 1.088083
28 Hindalco -9.154929577 -31.82170775 122.9143 37.35916
29 Tata Steel -20.01262626 0.851735016 51.9597 21.89394

Cement
30 ACC 12.50% -12.86% 2.28% 10.54%
31 Ambuja Cements 2.70% 3.84% 0.55% 8.48%
32 Grasim Industries -16.42% -11.83% -72.77% -5.98%
33 Ultra Tech Cement -7.84% -15.87% 24.38% -10.17%

Cigrettes
34 ITC 48.06095447 8.695920128 23.61815 95.91204

Pharmaceuticals
35 Cipla 86.11546499 -28.14232578 15.82186 54.89812
36 Dr.Reddy's Lab 35.17047656 -14.28410054 -12.84186 1.989539
37 Lupin 113.7050436 -26.33217131 -2.080087 36.07968
38 Sun Pharma 78.06956522 -19.91405411 183.8185 -99.82
39 Aurobindo 140 -38.69135802 -7.734354 32.65226

Information Technologies
40 HCL -0.308823011 -0.134718606 6.62% -0.38331
41 Infosys -0.330602453 -0.439591527 -0.151976 -0.69153
42 TCS 0.173312813 -0.008790042 -0.009006 0.117196
43 Tech Mahindra -0.653925421 -0.249328276 -0.008529 -0.74766
44 Wipro 0.120844844 -0.108891346 -0.082629 -0.08083

Telecom
45 Bharti Airtel 23.67924528 -10.80600051 -0.042833 4.276804
46 Bharti Infratel -100 -1.279400362 -14.43949 -38.573

Consumer Goods
47 Asian Paints 48.06095447 8.695920128 23.61815 95.91204
48 HUL 4.859114434 -0.463625436 44.25729 50.5656

63
Construction
49 Laursen & Turbo 35.03534957 -29.28529924 29.86799 23.64493

Media & Entertainment


50 Zee Entertainment 24.81738495 13.27576112 39.46615 95.59898

Shipping
51 Adani Ports 64.41717791 -19.63011032 37.10133 81.16831

PORTFOLIO CREATION
RETURN COMPANY NAME ACTUAL RETURN CALCULATED RETURN
POSITIVE Indiabulls Finance 336.9606399 129.408926
Eicher Motor 329.2124465 126.4332509
Maruti Suzuki 206.9202485 79.46722541
ITC 95.91203577 36.83478742
Asian Paints 95.91203577 36.83478742
NEUTRAL Tata Power 9.411764706 3.614565673
Bharti Airtel 4.276804036 1.642496338
Yes Bank 2.736562387 1.050970225
NEGATIVE Axis Bank -66.57814096 -25.5691754
ICICI -77.3806 -29.7178339
937.3837966

CALCULATION OF TOTAL RETURN (IN %)


COMPANY ACTUAL TOTAL
NAME RETURN MARKET CAP WEIGHTAGE RETURN
Indiabulls Finance 336.9606399 487,143 0.035950383 12.11386
Eicher Motor 329.2124465 783,705 0.057836189 19.04039
Maruti Suzuki 206.9202485 2,208,205 0.162962035 33.72014
ITC 95.91203577 3,643,075 0.268853171 25.78625
Asian Paints 95.91203577 1,091,663 0.080563002 7.726962
Tata Power 9.411764706 208,538 0.015389774 0.144845
Bharti Airtel 4.276804036 1,461,449 0.107852624 0.461265
Yes Bank 2.736562387 609,786 0.045001242 0.123149
Axis Bank -66.57814096 1,212,312 0.089466708 -5.95653
ICICI -77.3806 1,844,550 0.136124872 -10.5334
13,550,426 1 82.62693

64
1% 0%
-6%
Portfolio Returns POSITIVE Indiabulls Finance
0% -5% POSITIVE Eicher Motor
28% POSITIVE Maruti Suzuki
8%
POSITIVE ITC
POSITIVE Asian Paints
8%
NEUTRAL Tata Power
NEUTRAL Bharti Airtel
NEUTRAL Yes Bank
17% NEGATIVE Axis Bank
27%
NEGATIVE ICICI

65
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