From: Bob<robertotto25@gmail.

com>
Senttime: 05/29/201605:57:01AM
To: DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>
Subject: Trump,ClintonTiedinPolls.WereAlltheWiseMenWrong?|RealClearPolitics

Trump,ClintonTiedinPolls.WereAlltheWiseMenWrong?

ItwasconventionalwisdomamongthepoliticalcognoscentiduringmostoftheprimaryseasonthatDonaldTrumpcould
notwinthegeneralelection.Theevidenceseemedstrong.

Over12monthsofpollingfromMay2015toApril2016,HillaryClintonranaheadofTrumpin63nationalpolls,while
Trumpledherinonlysixandtiedherinthree.Pollsinthedozenorso2012targetstatesshowedsimilarresults.

ButTrumpenthusiastsinsistedtheirmanwouldeasilyprevail.NowMaypollingsuggests,toparaphrasetheformerBritish
PrimeMinisterLordMelbourne,thatwhatallthewisemenpromisedhasnothappenedandwhatallthedamnedfools
saidwouldhappenhascometopass.

ThecurrentRealClearPoliticsaverageofrecentpollsshowsTrumpwith43.4percentandClintonwith43.2percent.The
fivepollsinquestionwereconductedbetweenMay13andMay19,wellafterTrump'sdecisivevictoryinIndianaMay3.

Thosenumbersarenotetchedinstone.His43percentisnotmuchdifferentfromwhathewaspollingagainstClinton
betweenSeptember2015andFebruary2016,butit'sabovehislevelsduringtheheatoftheRepublicancontestinMarch
andApril.

ArticleContinuesBelow

Clinton's43percentisthelowestshe'sbeenaveragingagainstTrumpsincethecyclebegan.It'spossible,thoughnot
assured,thathernumbersmayriseafterBernieSanders'increasinglyaggressivebutdoomedcandidacyends.

Trump'ssky-highunfavorableratingsdeclinedsomewhatafterheclinchedthenomination.It'spossiblethatClinton'srising
unfavorableratings--higherthanTrump'sinsomeMaypolls--maydeclineaswellbythetimesheisofficiallynominated
inPhiladelphiaJuly27.

Notethat,despitethetwocandidates'universalrecognition,thepercentageofundecidedvotersseemsratherhigh,atleast
11percentintheMaypolls.That'snotsurprising,since,asmanycommentatorshavenoted,majoritiesofvotershave
unfavorablefeelingstowardbothnominees--thefirsttimethat'sbeenthecasesincepollingbeganin1935.

Evenso,thepatternsofsupportarefamiliar,inlinewiththeclosepartisandivisionthat'sprevailedforthelasttwo
decades.Theirresistibleforceofcorrosivelynegativepublicopinionmayhaveprevailedinprimaries,wheretwo
candidatesalmostnoonetookseriously12monthsago,TrumpandBernieSanders,havewon41and42percentof
popularvotes.

Butthatforcehasnotsucceeded,sofaratleast,inalteringwhathasbeentheimmoveableobjectofpartisanpolarization.
Trumphasbigmarginsamongmen,whitesandwhiteevangelicals,Clintonamongwomen,blacksandHispanics.More
than80percentofself-identifiedRepublicansbackTrumpandmorethan80percentofself-identifiedDemocratsback
Clinton.

Supportforbothcandidatesiswithinthenarrowrangeof41to46percentofthevoteinthefourMaypollssponsoredby
televisionnetworks--CBS/NewYorkTimes,FoxNews,NBC/WallStreetJournalandABC/WashingtonPost.
ExaminationoftheinternalnumberssuggestsTrumpisrunningworsethanMittRomneyamongwhitecollegegraduates
andbetteramongnon-collegewhites.ClintonseemstoberunningweakerthanBarackObamaamongmen,especially
non-collegewhites.

TherehasbeenmuchfocusonTrump'snegativenumbersamongwomen,butClintondoesevenworseamongnon-
collegewhitemen,only14percentofwhomsupportheraccordingtotheABC/WashingtonPostpoll.That'slessthanthe
20to28percenttheMaynetworkpollsshowTrumpwinningamongHispanics.

Thisyearwasthefirsttimesinceprimarieshavedominatedthenominationprocessthatbothnomineesowetheirvictories
tomajoritiesfromtheirparties'mostdownscaleconstituencies.

AlmostallofClinton'spopularvotemajoritieshavecomefromblackvoters,especiallyintheSouth.Exitpollsshowedher
losingwhitevoterstoSandersineverynon-Southernstatewhereonewasconducted.

Trump'sbiggestmajoritiescame,especiallyinthecrucialMarchprimaries,fromnon-collegewhites.Notfornothingdid
hesayonthenightoftheNevadacaucuses,"Ilovethepoorlyeducated."

ThehigherturnoutthisyearinRepublicanthanDemocraticcontestssuggeststhatTrumpvotersareenergized,while
ClintonmayhavetroubleturningoutheavilyDemocraticvoters,especiallytheyoung.

Trumphasbenefitedfromoneotherthing:thedynasticcandidaciesofJebBush,whowasleadingRepublicanpollswhen
heannounced,andHillaryClinton,whosenumbershavebeenfallingevenasBarackObama'sjobapprovalhasrisen.
Associationwithpastpresidentsdoesn'thelpwhenvoterswantchange.

That'sonemorereasonthewisemenmayturnouttobewrong.

COPYRIGHT2016CREATORS.COM

MichaelBaroneisseniorpoliticalanalystfortheWashingtonExaminer,residentfellowatAmericanEnterpriseInstitute
andlongtimeco-authorofTheAlmanacofAmericanPolitics.

Signuptoreceiveemailalerts

SentfrommyiPad
 From: Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 05/22/201607:51:14AM
To: sburant@verizon.net
Subject: WeakendatBernies-TheNewYorkTimes

WeakendatBernies

BernieSanderssupportersduringarallyattheSantaClaraCountyFairgroundsinSanJose,Calif.,onWednesday.JimWilson/TheNewYorkTimes

WASHINGTONHILLARYCLINTONistheDemocraticnominee.

Really.

Justaskher.

Sheshouldhavebeenabletofinallysavorshatteringthathighest,hardestglassceilingtheoneshegloriedinputting
18millioncracksinlasttimearoundwhensheattendsherconventioninPhiladelphiainJuly.

Instead,sheisreducedtostompingherfeetonCNN,assertingherdominanceinacontestthathasleftherlooking
anythingbutdominant.Oncemoreattemptingtoshakeofftheoldsocialistdudehammeringherwithasickle,Clinton
insistedtoChrisCuomoonThursday:Iwillbethenomineeformyparty,Chris.Thatisalreadydone,ineffect.Thereis
nowaythatIwontbe.

ItsavexingtimefortheClintons.AsBilltoldacrowdinFargo,N.D.,onFriday,itsbeenaninterestingyear:Thats
themostneutralwordIcanthinkof.

Afterall,whyshouldBernieSandersgettobetheDemocraticnomineewhenheisntevenaDemocrat?Andhowis
DonaldTrumpgoingtobetheRepublicannomineewhenheconsidersbeingaRepublicanmerelyastartingbid?
ItmustbehardforHillarytolookatallthepicturesofyoungwomenswooningoverBernieasthoughhewereBieber.

Continuereadingthemainstory

Sheassumedthatthefixwasin,thatsheandtheD.N.C.hadarrangedforthecoronationthatshefeltshewasrobbedof
inthetulipcrazeof2008.

EveryonejustlaughedwhenSanders,acrankylonerfromVermontwithanondescriptSenaterecord,decidedto
challengeQueenHillary.Clintonandheraidesintonedwink,winkthatitwouldbehealthytohaveaprimaryfight
withSandersandMartinOMalley.

ButBerniebecamethesurprisebelleofhissidesrevolutionaryball.Andnowhehasgottenatasteofitandhelikesitand
hewontletitgo.HesbedevilingthedaylightoutofHillary.

HillaryandheralliesarespinninganarrativethatBernieislessloyaltotheDemocraticcausethanshewaswithObama.
AndTrumpdoesdelightinquotingBerniescontentionthatHillarylacksthejudgmenttobepresident.OnFriday,when
heacceptedtheendorsementoftheN.R.A.atitsconvention,TrumpmischievouslyurgedSanderstorunasathird-party
candidateandsaidhewouldlovetohaveadebatewithbothHillaryandBernieonstage.

HillarysaysSandersneedstodohisparttounifytheparty,asshedidin2008.Butevenonthedayofthelastprimaries
inthatrace,whenshewastheonewhowasmathematicallyeliminatedunlessthesuperdelegatesturned,shecameonstage
toTerryMcAuliffeheraldingherasthenextpresidentoftheUnitedStates.Shethentoutedhavingmorevotesthanany
primarycandidateinhistoryasherfanscheeredYes,shewill!andDenver!

SeeingTrumpssoaringnegatives,Sandersthinks,ifhecouldjustgetpastHillary,hecouldactuallybepresident.

TheBerniebroviolencechairthrowing,sexistname-callingandferalthreatsattheNevadastatepartyconvention
lastweekendwasdenouncedasascarysituationbyhisSenatecolleagueBarbaraBoxer.

Sanderscondemnedtheviolencewhilestokingtheoutrage,urgingtheDemocraticPartytoopenthedoors,letthe
peoplein.HeflashedabitofTrump,sosureinhisbeliefthatthesystemisriggedthathefedoffthenastyenergy.

Continuereadingthemainstory

BoxerhadtocallSandersseveraltimesbeforehecalledback.SheandotherDemocraticSenatewomenarefedupwith
hiscrusade,feelingenoughisenough.

IvetalkedtoseveralformerClintonandObamaWhiteHouseaideswhodontenjoycheckinginwiththejoylessClinton
campaigninBrooklyn.ItstheBataanDeathMarch,onesays.

HopefulacceptanceofHillaryhasshiftedtoamazeddisbeliefthatshecantputawayBernie.Givendynastyfatigueand
Hillarysage,manyDemocratsassumedthattheirfront-runnerwouldcomeoutofthegatewithavisionforthefuturethat
gavehercampaignafreshhue,insteadofwhitepaperstinkeringaroundtheedges.Sheshouldhavebeenfaroverher
husbandsbridgetothe21stcenturyandwaydownthehighwaybynow.

Instead,herbignewideaistoputBillinchargeoftheeconomyagain(hopefully,withlessWallStreetderegulation).Again
withthetwoforthepriceofone.AndpleasedontdenyusthepleasureofseeingBillchoosethechinapatterns.

HillarysBataanDeathMarchismakingRepublicansreconsidertheirownsuicidemissionwithTrump.Morearelooking
atClintonsinabilitytogettheflashinglightsgoinglikeherhusband,andthinking:Huh,maybewerenotdeadhere.
MaybeTeflonDoncouldpullthisoff.
The2016raceistranscendentallybizarre.Wehavetwonear-nomineeswiththehighestunfavorablesatthispointinthe
raceofanyinmodernhistory.Weseemtohaveamajorityofvotersinbothpartieswhoaredrivenbythedesiretovote
againsttheothercandidate,ratherthanfortheirown.

DebbieWassermanSchultztriestoherdyoungwomentoHillarybyraisingthespecterofRoev.Wadebeingoverturned.
AndformerPennsylvaniaGov.EdRendellsaidTrumpsobsessionwith10sandD-cupswouldcomebacktohaunt
himandgiveDemocratswinsbecausethereareprobablymoreuglywomeninAmericathanattractivewomen.

HillarycantgenerateexcitementonherownsosheisrelyingonfearofTrumptogetherintotheWhiteHouse.And
TrumpisrelyingonfearofeverythingtogethimintotheWhiteHouse.

Sovotersarestuckinthemuckofthenegative:Whatareyoumostafraidof?

SentfrommyiPad
 From: ChristopherBort<chrisbort@me.com>
Senttime: 05/15/201605:56:38PM
To: ChrisBort<chrisjb1@ucia.gov>ChrisBort<chrisbort@gmail.com>robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: CarnegieconferenceonRussia'sUncertainTrajectory

4TzLyRn+rKvUg=CarnegieconferenceonRussia'sUncertainTrajectory

WhereisRussiaheadedandwhataretheimplicationsforUSpolicy?

AndrewWeisssayswithregardtoRussiathateconomicandpoliticalsystemstendtoadjustto"new
normals."Atthesametime,wecan'tevenmakeassumptionsaboutourown,US,policies,e.g.Trum
p.

Weissenumeratesthefactorswewouldnothaveforeseenjustovertwoyearsago.Wewouldn'thave
foreseenPutin'spopularityashighasitiswouldn'thaveexpectedRussiainSyriawouldn'thav
eexpectedoilpricessolow.

Ourkeyquestions:
-HowwillthepoliticalsystemadapttoDumaelections?
-Howwilleconomyadapttoaneweconomicsuper-cycle?
-HowwillthebreakdownintrustwiththeWestshapesecurityenvironment?
-HowwillWesternpolicyadapttoareturntopre-MaydanenvironmentinKyiv?

DanRusselloftheUS-RussiaBusinessCouncil,introducingthefirstpanel,offerssixpoints.
-Russia'sgrowthmodelpredatesthecrisis.Growthhasbeendroppingsince2011.
-Theeconomyhasadjustedtotwinshocksofsanctionsandlowoilpricesbetterthanexpected.Th
eflexibleexchangeratehasbeeneffective.
-Theimpactofsanctionswassignificant,buttheoilpricecollapsewasthemaindriverofthef
all.
-Russia'srecoverywillbelong.It'sclosetobottomingout.Modestgrowthwillresumenextyear
.Returntofourpercentgrowth,however,isunlikely.-Theelephantintheroomisthelackofco
mprehensivestructuralreform.Suchreformsunlikelyuntilafter2018elections.Nosecretaboutw
hatneedstobedone.Noshortageofknowledgeaboutwhattodo.Theproblemislackofpolitical
will.
-Withcrisiscomesopportunity.Theweakrubleisanopportunityforvalueaddedexports,forins
tance.Retoolingofindustryisunlikelybutpossible.Theeconomicadvisorypanelthatwasrecent
lycreatedisanopportunity.

MikhailDmitriyevof"NewEconomicGrowth"saysRussia'sGDPslowdownhasbeentheworstoftheBR
ICSexceptforBrazil's.Duringthecurrentcrisiscapitaloutflowofabout$170billionhasbeen
twiceasbadasinthelastcrisis,butwasmanagedeffectivelybyCentralBank.GDPdeclinethis
timecomparedtolasttimehasnotbeenasbad.Themajordriverforthiswasthatthepopulation
tookthebruntoftherecession,asopposedtocorporations.Corporationsfaredokduringthiscri
sis,whereaspublicconsumptionandrealwagesfellsharply.Thiswasmadepossibleinparttothe
highpoliticalsupportthegovernmenthashad.
Thecrisishasimpactedthepoorestpartsofsociety,thenumberofpeoplescrapingbyhasincreas
ed.Atthesametime,theveryrichhaveincreasedtoo(albeitfromalowbase,from1%to4%).
Importsubstitutionhasn'tprompteddevelopmentofsectorsinwhichRussiawasn'talreadyeffectiv
e.
Potentialdamagefromthebankingcrisiswascontained.TheCBRsqueezedliquidityenoughtokeep
inflationdown.TheirapproachwasclassicorthodoxandwassupportedbyPutinhimself.They'veav
oidedalaxmonetarypolicy.
Russia'spublicdebtisthesmallestamonglargecountries.
Growthforecastsdon'tgoabovetwopercentuntil2022.
Thekeyquestionremainsunanswered:willRussiaaddressreformsbeforeitgetsstuckinthemiddl
eincometrap?Don'tassumeitcan'tbedone--Russiaiscapableofeffectiveadministration.The
hugeleapinRussia'sperformanceintheEaseofDoingBusinessrankingsshowsthatRussiacanimp
lementneededmeasureswhenitwantsto.Itcanadministerpolicies.Russia'staxadministrationf
orinstanceisratedhigherthanthatoftheUS.Evenrealjudiciaryreformisbeingseriouslydis
cussed.
Thepoliticalsystemistheissue,accordingtoDmitriyev.Duringthiscrisis,thetraditionallys
trongcorrelationbetweensupportforPutinandsentimentabouttheeconomyhasbeenbroken.Polit
icalsupportforPutinremainshigh,whereasthesenseofeconomiccrisishasbecomedeep.
Erosionofpoliticalsupportisgrowingfromthebottomup,assupportforlocalgovernmentshasr
eachednewlows,andsupportforthegovernmentfalls.TheonlystronganchorisPutin'sownchari
smaandpersonality.Thegeneraldeclineinconfidencehasn'ttranslatedintoprotests,whichis"
amazing,"Dmitriyevsays.Thelevelsofprotestsentiment,forinstance,arefarlowerthantheyw
erein2010.Thisisaparadoxicalsituation.Thisisacomplexsituation.

ClayBerry(ChiefEconomistforEurope,InstituteofInternationalFinance)!givescredittoRussia
'stightfiscalpolicyin2015forhelpingthecountryweathertheadjustment.Agreesthatthecon
sumerhasbornethebruntofthiscrisis.Therearealotoftheoriesaboutwhypeoplehavehandle
dthiscrisisascalmlyastheyhave.Thecountersanctionshavehurtconsumersdisproportionately,
butthegovernmenthasn'teaseduponthatapproach.BerryremainsskepticalaboutRussia'sabili
tytoattractinvestment.Effortssofarhavebeenunsuccessfulandunconvincing.
Lookingat2016,sheexpectsareturntogrowthinthesecondhalfoftheyear,continuingintone
xtyear,butgettingnevermuchabovetwopercentatthebest.Thatrepresentsprotractedstagnati
on.
Berryisnotoptimisticabouttheprospectforstructuralreform.Theproblemislackofpolitical
will.
FiscalquestionsincreasebynextyearasRussiarunsthroughitsreserves.Willtheyintroducea
newfiscalrule?They'vecutalot,that'showthey'vebeenmanaging.They'rerunningoutofroom
tocutfurther.Post-2018somethingsbecomeinevitable,suchasraisingthepensionage.Theflat
taxratemayhavetobeincreased.
Russiaisnotincrisis,it'snotimploding,butit'sfacinglong-termstagnation.It'snotclear
howitcanescapethemiddleincometrap.Andyetpeopleareadjusting,they'rehunkeringdown,th
ey'renotprotesting.

DanRussellasksDmitriyevaboutthestructuralchangehesuggestsmightbeunderway.Dmitriyevsa
ysCustomsreformisabrightspot.Russians'consumptionpatternsareshiftingtohousing,offeri
ngopportunities.Butthereisnoguaranteeoffollow-throughonanything,onanyreform,suchas
judicialreform.Thesethingsarehardeverywhere,asinChina.Butsometimesevensomemarginali
mprovementshelpalot.

AndrewWeissasksaboutcronycapitalismandmonopolization.Aretheseonthetable?

DmitriyevrespondsthatcorruptioninstateprocurementisoneareainwhichRussiahasmadeprogr
ess,judgingbyatleastanecdotalevidence.Somesuchtaboosaretherebybeinglifted.

Dmitriyevsaysthethingaboutthepoliticalsystemisthatitdeliversonwhatit'ssupposedto,
anditisbroadlysupportedacrossalmostallgroups.Thisreinforcestheleadership'sbeliefthat
itdoesn'tneedtofocusonpoliticalreform,onlyoneconomicreform.

Onequestioner(SteveBegun)notesthatanotherbrightnoteisthatdespiteeverything,foreignin
vestorshavebeentreatedfairlyduringthecrisis.Yetmanysignsarenegative,suchasintheau
toindustry,whichisafflictedwithovercapacity.Mostdisturbingly,Begunsays,Russiaisbeing
pushedoutoftheglobalsupplychain.ItplaysnoroleandnoonelooksatRussiaasaplayerin
theglobalsupplychain.What'shappeningtothemiddleclass?

Dmitrieyvbringsupthefactthattheeconomyisadjustingandrepeatsthattheconstructionsecto
ristakinguptheslackwithbigprospectsforgrowth.Alotofthisisnaturaladjustment.Them
ortgagemarketcangrow.InvestmentratesinRussiahavegrownby1.5percentperyear.Thisisno
tanunusualrateforacountrylikeRussiaandRussiaisnotanoutlier.

Questionaboutwhatincentivesthereareforstructuralreform?Academicallyyoucanunderstandwh
ythey'reimportant,butpracticallyit'snotclearwhyanyoneintheleadershipwouldsupportthe
m.

Dmitriyevsaysthatthedemandforreformwillhavetobepushedfrombelow.Heagreesthattheel
itesdon'tneedorwantreform.Thisisthebigquestion.Willpatiencerunout?It'sanopenques
tion.

AndyKuchinssayseconomicreformscan'tbedivorcedfrompoliticalreforms.GeneRumersaysheis
atalosstosquarethe(relativelysanguine)picturepaintedbythepanelistsandthepicturetha
temergesfromthemediaofamuchmorediresituation.

ClayBerryreturnstothepositivepoliciespursuedbytheCBR,suchasshuttingdownbadbanks.B
uttheneteffectofthat"good"policyisthatmoremoneyisnowflowingtogovernmentownedbank
s.Thisunderscorestheoversizeroleofthegovernment.

Dmitriyevsaysthattheconcentrationofrentsintheoilandgassectordistortsthepictureabou
tthesizeofthestate.Thereareinfactmuchmoredynamicconsumersectorstofocusonthattel
ladifferentstory.Dmitriyevremainsconcernedaboutthebankingsector.
Dmitriyevsaysmasslayoffsremainabigconcern,ataboo.Thelackoflaborreformisaproblem.
Butatthesametimetheresultinglackofunemploymenthelpsthesystemadjust.

WayneMerrysaysthereareveryfewsectorsonwhichoutsideinvestorscanmakemoney.
HarleyBalzerasksabouttheproblemsfacingSMEsandthefactsomanyareshuttingdown.Dmitriye
vacknowledgesthatthewidespreadfailuresofSMEsisabigproblem.

Inthesecondsession,DeputyAssistantSecretaryofStateforRussiaandEurasiaKathyKavalecis
askedaboutthecommunicationbetweenRussiaandtheUS,andsaysthatalotofcommunicationis
takingplaceinvariouschannels.Sheacknowledgesthatthe"feel-good"channelshavebeencutbac
k."Wehavelessinsightintowhat'shappeninginsidetheKremlin."ThedecisionsonSyriaandon
theNationalGuard,forinstance,weresurprises.EventheMFAseemedsurprisedbySyria.Obamaan
dKerryhavebeenengagingPutin.Thereissomecapacitytocooperateonsomeissues.

Therelationshipisbecomingmoremilitarized,perAndrew.Howtoavoidthingsgettingworse?Ism
achinerybeingbuiltuponeithersidetoavoidaccidentalclashes?

ThedeconflictionmechanisminSyriaisworkingprettywell,KathyKavalecsays.TheIncidentatS
eamechanismisworking,moreorless."ButwehavetohopetheRussiansdon'tconfusebrazenness
forbravery."

Question:AretheRussianslookingpastthisadministration?
Answer:Theadministrationisdoingeverythingitcan,butit'ssomethingwecan'tcontrolifthe
RussiansarelookingpastObama.RussiastandsoutamongtheG20astheonlyonefavoringTrumpfo
rpresident.

AngelaStentasksifthenextadministrationshoulddoarealreviewofRussiapolicy?
Probably,Kavalecsaystherearealotofquestionsthatneedtobelookedat,suchasontheinf
ormationfront,themilitaryreassurancefront,onthepeople-to-peoplefront.

AlekseyArbatovasks:Isthestrategicarmscontrolregimecollapsing?Whydidn'ttheStateDepart
mentacceptRussia'soffertodiscussthe1972conventiononincidentsatseaandthesafedistanc
eslimitslaidouttherein?

TomGrahamasks:howwouldyousuccinctlydescribetheRussiachallenge,andhowwouldyoudefine
theshorttermandlongtermgoals?

KavalecsaysthelongtermgoalisstillRussia'sintegrationwithWesterninstitutionsandit'sn
otunachievable.This(Putin)regimeisnotforever,afterall.
TheshorttermgoalistobepreparedforassertiveandaggressivemovesaffectingourAlliesand
counteringinformationaggression.Butwestillneedtokeeplinesofcommunicationopen.Therear
esomethingswecouldaccomplish.MaybewecanextendNewSTARTnow,forinstance.Syriamayturn
outtobeaplusfortherelationship.

BillCourtneyasksabouttheMinskaccordsandhowit'sthefirsttimetheEuropeanshavebeenin
thelead.Aretheymoreconfident?

KavalecsayswearelettingtheNormandy-4countriestakethelead.UkraineisaEuropeancountry
anditsissuesshouldbemanagedbytheEuropeans.
AtthesametimeRussia'sactionsaredrivingothercountriestouniteandtomoveclosertotheU
S.

HowwillyoucharacterizeRussiainyour(hypothetical)transitionpaper,GeneRumerasks.Therea
retwocontradictorynarratives,oneofRussiaonthemarchoneofRussianindeclineandisolate
d.YetyousayweneedtostanduptoRussiaandcounteritspropaganda-why?

Kavalecsaysthereisaconnectionbetweentheirbrazenbehaviorandtheirunderlyingweaknesses.
Shepointsoutthatwenowdescribethesystemasauthoritarian,withoutqualifiers(suchas"soft
").

AndrewWeisssaysPutinsimplybelievesthattheUSwantsregimechange.Howdowemanagethat?Ho
wdowekeeparelationshipwithhimwhenhebelieveswewanttooverthrowhim?
KavalecsaysweneedtojustdothebestwecanandrealizethatPutinisn'tforever,eventuallyh
ewillgo.

SurensayswehavebeenveryreactivetoRussia'sactions,howdowestartbeingproactive?

Arethereanyareasinwhichpeopletopeoplecontactscontinue?Notreally.WhydoweseeRussiaa
sparticularlyimportant?

InthethirdsessiononDomesticscenarios,DenisVolkovoftheLevadaCenterspeaksabouttrends
inpublicopinionandhighlightsthehighpost-CrimearatingsforPutin,butnotesthatthenumber
sdon'thavethesamemeaningastheywouldinacompetitivepoliticalsystem.Otherindicatorsar
eheadingdowntopre-Crimealevels.Itwillbehardforthesystemtocontinueasusual.Theprot
estmoodisnothighandpeopledon'tlinktheirownsituationstothoseofotherprotestgroups-
-horizontallinksamongprotestgroupsaren'ttakingshape.

Thegovernmentcantrytocomeupwithsomegrandnewforeignpolicyinitiativebutnothingislik
elytobeaseffectiveasCrimeawas.SyriawasnotaseffectiveasCrimeaandonlygainedbyasso
ciationwiththeaftermathofCrimea.Theseadventuresmaypropuplegitimacybutnotadvanceit.

TomGrahamofKissingerAssociatessaysherecentlyre-lookedattheNIEfrom1987onthenear-ter
mfutureoftheSovietUnionandthefourscenariosintheNIEdidn'tcapturewhatwasgoingtoha
ppen.Wecan'tforeseethingsuntiltheyhappen,thenweexplainthemafterthefact.Someofthat
analysiscontinuestoday,westraight-lineeventsandsomethinkofPutinasforever.Lookingat
currenttrendswecanseehowtheregimecancontinueandisplanningforcontingencies,assomee
arlierspeakershavenoted.Theregimehastoolstoensureitssurvival,theoppositionisweakan
ddivided.
ItissafetoassumethatPutinwillrunandwinin2018,butwhatwouldhavetohappentomaketh
atchange?
Putinhastogivetheelitesguarantees,hehastoprotectthem.Heneedstoprotectthemfromfor
eignenemies.ThisisoneofPutin'smainjobs.
Grahamnotesthatbetweenthefalloflastyearandthisspring,somethingchanged.Before,people
thoughtthingswouldbegettingbetter.Now,theyactasifit'sthenewnormal.Thischallenges
Putin'sabilitytomanageresourcesamongtheelite.
ThesplitsamongtheelitesthatwehearaboutincludethatofKadyrovandtheintelligenceservic
es,butthereareothers.Thestand-upoftheNationalGuardbroughtsomeofthoseforward.Thism
akesitharderforPutintomanagethecompetition.
Managingthemasses?It'shardtoenvisionalargemassprotest.Buttherecouldbelocalizedprot
ests.OnlyasmallnumberofsuchincidentscouldcauseregionalleaderstoquestionMoscow'scont
rol.
Reforeignpolicy,TomGrahamdoesn'tthinkforeignpolicyhasbeenadventurous,norhasitbeenu
ndertakenjusttopropupPutin'spopularity.They'renotlookingforthenextadventuretokeeph
ispopularityabove80%.ButtheneteffectisthatRussiaisoverextended.
IfIwereontheGeneralStaff,Grahamsays,Iwouldbelookingatresourcesandchallengesandlo
ngtermcommitments.Therearegrowingsecuritychallengeseverywherethathavetobetakenintoa
ccount.
Afewchallengesthatstartsmallandgetoutofcontrolcouldraisequestionsamongtheelite."I
canenvisionascenariothatgetsustoaRussiawithoutPutin."ButaRussiawithoutPutindoesn
'tmeanthesystemwillchangenecessarily.Itcouldleadtosomechangesinpriority,butwon'tc
hangethewayRussiaapproachesthings.Russiawon'tbesomethingwecanintegrateintotheWester
ncommunity.WewillneedanewgrandstrategyforRussia.

AngelaStentasksifRussiacouldn'tchangeovertimeunderanewleader?Evenifanewleadersta
rtsoutfollowinginPutin'sfootsteps,anewleadercouldleadtoqualitativechange.
TomGrahamsaysRussiahasn'tchangedin300years.Andallthechallengesthatithasnowwillbe
there.Itwillhavetochange,butademocraticbreakthroughisunlikely.

Question:Howdoyouseeanelite(anti-Putin)coalitioncomingtogether?
Answer:Itwillhavetocomefromwithinthesiloviki.That'showithappenedunderGorbachev.We
shouldn'tfocusonjustthetoplayerofelite,weneedtothinkaboutthelowerlevelstoo.This
maynotbeaclassiccoupscenario.Therecouldbeaguaranteedarrangementbehindthescenesthat
getsPutintostepdown.Thesepeoplemaylookatthemathanddecidetheyneedtochangethesy
stemorthecountrywillfallfartherbehind.

TheRussiansmaynotbe"dissatisfied"becausetheyrememberhowbadthingswere,WayneMerryobse
rves.MaybethisisthebestRussiaweget,maybeit'snotsobadforus.Democracyoftenproduces
badoutcomes.

Grahamsaysthereareelementsofaharderrightthatcouldcometopower,fromamongthosewhoth
inkPutinistoosoft.RussiacouldendupbeingmorechallengingfortheUS.

AquestionforVolkov:HowmuchofthecountryisLevadaabletocover?Doweknowenoughaboutwh
at'sgoingoninsidetherepublics,includingprotests?
Volkovsaysregionalelitesarestillrelativelyhappy.

AndrewWeissasksaboutwhatthenext"lurch"mightbe.Henotesthattheideological"winners"so
farhavebeenthefarright.Supportforthatapproachmaybecoalescing,andseemsmorelikelyt
hatthanaconsensusforeconomicgrowth.

TomGrahamsaysyesandno.Someindividualsseefarrightnationalismastherightapproach.But
thesecurityservicesinRussiatendtobemoreprofessionalthanthat,they'renotwildrisk-take
rs.TheyhadplannedforCrimeaandknewwhattheyweredoing.Forcewasusedjudiciously.Theywe
reneverplanningtogotoKyiv.Theyhaven'toverreacted,eventoourmaneuvers.There'snoreali
sticreasontothinkthey'regoingintotheBaltics.Theycanbenasty,becauseit'slowrisktob
enasty.Butit'sunlikelythatwewillfaceawildlyaggressiveforeignpolicy.Andthepeoplehe
reintheUSwhowarnaboutanaggressiveRussiaareprobablylobbyingformorefunding.

VolkovsaystheCrimeaoperationwasn'tjustforpopularity.Butoncedone,itwasplayeddelibera
telyformaximumpopularity.Theyevensolditinawaytheyknewwouldgivethemmaximumratings.

Question:WillPutinknowwhenit'stimetogo?Whocouldreplacehim?
Grahamanswersthattheelitescanfindareplacementandtheywouldrallyaroundwhoeveritwas,
justastheydidin1999.
It'sclearPutinisconcernedaboutathreatfromwithin,butifithappensthenhewillnothave
seenitcoming.

Q-Kazakhstan-couldachangeofpowertherethreatenRussia?

Q-Whatwerepeopleprotestingin2011andhasthatprotestsentimentgoneaway?Whereisthatpr
otestnow?HowdoesitaffectPutin'sthinkingaboutDumaelectionsthisyear?

A-Volkovsaystheregimeregainedtheinitiativeandmomentumandmarginalizedoppositionsentim
ent.
TheKremlinwaseffectiveinhowtheyaddressedtheprotest.Theymarginalizedpoliticalprotester
sasnon-Russian.TheKremlinismoreconcernedaboutsocioeconomicprotestsandaboutthoseprote
stslinkingupwithpoliticalprotests.

AndyKuchinssaysweshouldn'tkeepsayingthatwecan'tpredictwhatPutin'sgoingtodo,whatwe
haveisafailureofimagination.ShouldwehavebeensurprisedbyCrimea,bySyria?Couldn'twe
haveforeseenbothoftheseevents?

GeneRumerasksVolkov:Isitcorrecttoconcludefromyourpresentationthatthedriversofdomes
ticpoliticsareTV,andCrimea?Thesearethethingsproppingupthesystem?

HarleyBalzersaysthefactthatYeltsinhandedoverpowerpeacefullyshowsthatsomethingshave
changedinRussia,300yearsofhistorytothecontrary.

VolkovsaysRussiansknowtheyarelivingbetterthaneverbefore,traditionally.Thisisthemain
driverofdomesticpolitics(stability).Nowthatthistrendhasreversed,itremainstobeseen
howlongpeoplewillcontinuetosupporttheregime.PeoplebelievePutinwhenhesays"twoyears"
forthecrisis.Theystilltrusthimaboutthis.Aslongasthissupportcontinuestheeliteswil
lnotmoveagainstPutin.

GrahamsaysPutinprobablydoesseetheneedtoretrenchandistryingtowrapupoutsideactivity
,andfocusontheeconomy.ThefearintheKremlinaboutaperestroika-2ismisplaced,Russiais
nottheSovietUnion.
And,inresponsetoBalzer,GrahamsaysthechangeofpowerfromYeltsinwasinfactprobablyaso
ftpalacecoup.

ThefourthsessionisRussianforeignpolicyandRussiaintheworld.DavidHoffmanintroducesAle
kseyArbatovoftheCarnegieMoscowCenter.ArbatovtalksaboutrelationsbetweenRussiaandthe
US.From2011-13Russiawasbeingreactive.PutinresentedhowtheUStreatedhim,afterhe'dcome
topowerthinkinghecouldimproverelations.OutsideofRussia,wherePutinwasbeingauthoritar
ian,hewaspro-integration.HemovedforwardonmanyfrontswiththeUnitedStates,includingarm
scontrol,hisresponse9/11.Inresponsehegotrejection.Helearnedthatbymakingconcessions
hewouldnotgainrespectorequaltreatment.Russiawouldgetapatonthebackandnothingmore.
Sowhenhecamebackin2012hedecidedthatthewaytogetrespectwastochallengetheWest,ev
enthoughhehadnoplanforconfrontation.WhenUkrainehappeneditwasaturningpoint.Itwasa
ninternalaswellasanexternalchallenge.LosingUkrainewouldhavehugerepercussionsforPuti
n.AndifUkrainesucceeded,itwouldhavehugeimplicationsforRussia.Itwouldchallengethewh
olePutinregime.Themassprotestsof2011werethefirstreminderofthethreattoRussia.InCr
imea,hetookrevengeontheWest.Itwasadefensivepolicybyoffense,defensethroughoffense.
ForawhiletherewasathoughtthattheDonbaswouldbeanexamplefortherestofUkraine,Putin
invoked"Novorossiya."Butitdidn'tworkandsoPutindroppedit.
WhatdrivesRussianpolicy,domesticorexternalconsiderations?Foralongtimeitwasinternally
driven.ThenRussiansgrewtoexpectgreatpowerrespect.AndPutintriedtodeliver.
Withtheeconomicsituationdeteriorating,PutingavetheRussianpeopleCrimeainreturn.Theeve
ntsintheDonbaswerenotaclearwinforPutin,theissuewasverydivisiveinsideRussia.Marri
agesendedasaresultofdivisionsoverwhattodoaboutUkraine.
SyriaprovidedPutinthechancetoshowRussiawasnotaregionalpower,asObamacalledit.Russi
adidsomethingthatonlytheUScoulddo.Theactionwasdonepurelyforprestige,fightingjihad
istshadnothingtodowithit."Thatisabsurdofcourse,"Arbatovsays.Putinwasfightingcolor
revolutionsinSyria.Syriastartedbysurpriseanditendedbysurprise,that'showPutinlikes
todothings.NowtheoperationinSyriawillcontinueatalowerprofilebecausethewarinSyria
hasserveditspurpose.
Moreovertheeconomyhasforcedcutbacksinmilitaryexpenditures.The2020programwasdesignedf
oraGDPratethatwasdoublewhatitactuallyhasbeen.
Arbatovsaysthisisnotthetimeforanotherforeignadventure.BUTatthesametimePutincannot
affordtobeseenasweak,tobeseenasinretreat.Thatisatotaltaboo.Heisdeescalatingte
nsionwiththeWest.Buttherewillbenodeescalationifit'sseenasaretreat,asasignofwea
kness."Thisissoimportantitbearsrepeating,"Arbatovinsists.
ThecurtailmentoffightinginSyria,theconcessiononarmedobserversintheDonbas,aresignso
fPutindeescalating.Thesearemajorstepstowardreconciliation.
IsRussiabecomingisolationist?Itisgoingthatwaynotbyitsownchoice.Russiadoesnotwant
tobeisolationist.Russiaisanxiousforanendtoisolation.Russiacelebrates,forinstance,mo
vesagainstthesanctionsinFrance'sNationalAssembly.Self-relianceisnowthesloganoftheda
y.Butnotisolation.
GettingclosertotheWestendangersRussia'ssystem.ButRussianeedsinvestmentfromtheWest.T
hisisRussia'sbigdilemma.
ThedilemmawithChinaisthatRussiaisvastlyinferior.GettingclosertoChinaopensRussiato
unfairtreatmentbyChina.
Sixty-fourpercentofthepopulationseestheUSasanenemy...Butmoreimportantly,Arbatovargu
es,thereare25percentwhoSTILLseetheUSasafriend.Thatnumberisamazing,consideringeve
rything.
Continuityandchangeinrelations:RussianolongerwilltolerateWesterninterferenceinitssph
ereofinfluence.Russiaunderstandsequalityasmeaningthatitsinterestswillbetakenintoacc
ount.Nomoredoublestandards:iftheUSthinksitcandosomething,Russiathinksitcanaswell
.
RussiawilldelinkitsdomesticpoliciesfromitsrelationswiththeWest.
PRisofgreaterimportancetoPutinthantoanyotherRussianleader.
Doingthingsbysurpriseisaprimedriver.Thisisafeatureofpost-Crimeapolicy.
Foreignpolicyisbeingdonebypeoplewithlowintellectualcapacity,peoplelikePatrushevandB
ortnikov.Decisionsarebeingmadeinisolation,evenastheworldgetsmorecomplex.
Russiawillnotshyawayfromanaction-reactiondynamic,evenifthereactionhurtsRussia'sinte
rests.ActionswilltakenwithoutregardtowhattheUScounterreactionwillbe,includingtheNA
TObuildup--areactionthatRussiahadnotthoughtthrough.
Russiathinksithasmadeitspoint.Itisreadytocooperateaslongasitdoesn'tlooklikeretr
eat.
TherearepotentialsolutionstotheDonbas,Arbatovsays,abovealltheofferforarmedOSCEobse
rversontheborder.
AslongasPutinistheretherewillbenomajorpoliticaloreconomicreforms,andtherewillbe
noresetwiththeWest.Buttherelationshipcanbemanaged.

HoffmanraisesconcernaboutPutin'sasymmetrictactics.Werewewrongaboutthat?
ArbatovsaysPutinwillbeasymmetricwhereheneedstobe,andhewon'tbewherehedoesn'tneed
tobe.

GeneRumersaystheEuroAtlanticsecurityarrangementthatcouldhavebeenexpectedbyRussiahas
goneaway.TheWestisseenasathreattoRussia'ssovereignty,astestifiedbyForeignMinister
Lavrov'srecentarticle.NonethelessRussiaisnotanexpansionistpower.Theyhaveazoneofpriv
ilegedintereststhattheywilldefendagainstencroachmentsbytheWest,includingbymilitaryme
ans.Thesixcountriesthatareinthe"greyzone"arethethreeSouthCaucasusstatesandBelarus
,Ukraine,andMoldova.Thesearethebattlegroundstates.USpositionsonUkrainearepushingint
othistightspaceandinvitingunpredictableoutcomes.

Russianpolicyismadefromthetopdown.

AdvicetothenewUSadministration?Rumer'sadvicewouldbe:WeneedtoreengagewithPutin.

AdvicetoPutin?ArbatovsayshisadvicewouldbetostateclearlythatRussiaisnothreattothe
Baltics.
Russiashouldmakeassurancesaboutnon-useofnuclearweapons.Russiaisreadyforweaponsreduct
ionstoo.

TomGrahamsaysweshouldthinkaboutRussiaasanAsianpower,notjustaEuropeanproblem.Russi
aisimportanttoAsia.CanweengagewithRussiaonAsia,whereweandtheymighthavemoreinco
mmon.

Rumersaysthereareareaswherewecouldcooperatebutwebothwouldneedtoovercomeourmutual
worldviews.Inprinciplewecancollaboratewhenit'snecessary.Butonlyintimesofdeepcrisis
.

ArbatovsaysRussianeedsinvestmentintheFarEast..Bothsidesneedtostopmisspendingresourc
esonarmsagainsteachother,needtostartfindingareasofcooperation,whetherit'sintheAr
cticorelsewhere.

RussiansseeTrumpasunpredictablebuttheyseeClintonaspredictableinabadway,perArbatov
.PutincouldhaveagoodrelationwithTrump,butasRussianshaveseenwithErdoganthatthatis
anunpredictablequality.
LiberalsaredividedoverTrump.ButpeopleareworriedaboutClinton,thatshewouldfeelitnece
ssarytotryextrahardtobetoughonRussia.
Oneofthebigproblemsisthelackofcontactbetweenthemilitaries,andthedisrespecttheyhav
eforeachother.
Rearmscontrol,ArbatovsaysPutintreatsarmscontrolasapawn,asawaytogetconcessionsin
otherareas.It'snotimportantuntoitself.ArmscontrolprogresscouldreturnunderanewUSadm
inistration.

ArbatovsaysthatifRussiaisignoredunderanewAdministration,itwilltakestepstomakeitse
lfknown.
RumersaysitwouldbeamistaketojusttrytowaitPutinout.

CouldSyriabecomeanareaofcooperation?IfUkraineisresolved,Syriacouldbecomeanareaofr
ealmilitarycooperation,Arbatovsays.Arbatovsaysifhewereinchargehewouldsparenoeffort
totrytoresolveUkraine,itisthemostimportantRussia-Westconflictinyears,andneedstob
eresolved.
JustpullingbacktheseparatistswouldnotworkforRussia,becauseUkrainewouldjustmoveback
in.SoapeacekeepingforcealongwithRussianunitswouldbethewaytogo,Arbatovsays,tokeep
thesidesseparatedbutreassurethesides.Itcouldbeawaytogetsanctionsremoved.Itwould
beanunprecedentedconcessiononPutin'sparttoallowanarmedoutsidecontingentinthepost-So
vietspace.

Rehybridwarfareandtools,Russiacanusethemtoitsadvantage.It'sthefutureofwarfare.
ArbatovsaystheUSneedstounderstanditsownfaultinthefactthatRussia-USrelationsarebad
.ButRussia,typically,hasnowswungfromoneextremeofbehaviortoanother,fromoverlypassiv
etooverlybellicose."Weneednewrulesofbehavior."

ReKarabakh,ArbatovsaysRussiaisbetweenthetwosides.Itisneutral.Turkeyplayedarolein
thelatestconflict.RussiaismoreengagedinTransnistria,andthesituationismoredangeroust
here,dependingonUSpolicy.

ThecorridorbetweentheLOCsfromMinsk1andMinsk2shouldbewherethearmedUN/OSCEobservers
arelocated,Arbatovsays.Fromthere,theyshouldmonitortheRussian-Ukrainianborder,alongth
ewholeborder.ThiswouldremovequestionsaboutRussia'srole.

SentfrommyiPad
 From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 05/16/201612:12:59AM
To: RobertOtto<OttoRC@state.gov>
Subject: Fwd:CarnegieconferenceonRussia'sUncertainTrajectory

>
>CarnegieconferenceonRussia'sUncertainTrajectory
>
>WhereisRussiaheadedandwhataretheimplicationsforUSpolicy?
>
>AndrewWeisssayswithregardtoRussiathateconomicandpoliticalsystemstendtoadjustto"n
ewnormals."Atthesametime,wecan'tevenmakeassumptionsaboutourown,US,policies,e.g.Tr
ump.
>
>Weissenumeratesthefactorswewouldnothaveforeseenjustovertwoyearsago.Wewouldn'thav
eforeseenPutin'spopularityashighasitiswouldn'thaveexpectedRussiainSyriawouldn'th
aveexpectedoilpricessolow.
>
>Ourkeyquestions:
>-HowwillthepoliticalsystemadapttoDumaelections?
>-Howwilleconomyadapttoaneweconomicsuper-cycle?
>-HowwillthebreakdownintrustwiththeWestshapesecurityenvironment?
>-HowwillWesternpolicyadapttoareturntopre-MaydanenvironmentinKyiv?
>
>DanRusselloftheUS-RussiaBusinessCouncil,introducingthefirstpanel,offerssixpoints.
>-Russia'sgrowthmodelpredatesthecrisis.Growthhasbeendroppingsince2011.
>-Theeconomyhasadjustedtotwinshocksofsanctionsandlowoilpricesbetterthanexpected.
Theflexibleexchangeratehasbeeneffective.
>-Theimpactofsanctionswassignificant,buttheoilpricecollapsewasthemaindriverofthe
fall.
>-Russia'srecoverywillbelong.It'sclosetobottomingout.Modestgrowthwillresumenextye
ar.Returntofourpercentgrowth,however,isunlikely.
>-Theelephantintheroomisthelackofcomprehensivestructuralreform.Suchreformsunlikely
untilafter2018elections.Nosecretaboutwhatneedstobedone.Noshortageofknowledgeabout
whattodo.Theproblemislackofpoliticalwill.
>-Withcrisiscomesopportunity.Theweakrubleisanopportunityforvalueaddedexports,fori
nstance.Retoolingofindustryisunlikelybutpossible.Theeconomicadvisorypanelthatwasrece
ntlycreatedisanopportunity.
>
>MikhailDmitriyevof"NewEconomicGrowth"saysRussia'sGDPslowdownhasbeentheworstofthe
BRICSexceptforBrazil's.Duringthecurrentcrisiscapitaloutflowofabout$170billionhasbee
ntwiceasbadasinthelastcrisis,butwasmanagedeffectivelybyCentralBank.GDPdeclinethi
stimecomparedtolasttimehasnotbeenasbad.Themajordriverforthiswasthatthepopulatio
ntookthebruntoftherecession,asopposedtocorporations.Corporationsfaredokduringthisc
risis,whereaspublicconsumptionandrealwagesfellsharply.Thiswasmadepossibleinparttot
hehighpoliticalsupportthegovernmenthashad.
>Thecrisishasimpactedthepoorestpartsofsociety,thenumberofpeoplescrapingbyhasincre
ased.Atthesametime,theveryrichhaveincreasedtoo(albeitfromalowbase,from1%to4%).
>Importsubstitutionhasn'tprompteddevelopmentofsectorsinwhichRussiawasn'talreadyeffect
ive.
>Potentialdamagefromthebankingcrisiswascontained.TheCBRsqueezedliquidityenoughtokee
pinflationdown.TheirapproachwasclassicorthodoxandwassupportedbyPutinhimself.They've
avoidedalaxmonetarypolicy.
>Russia'spublicdebtisthesmallestamonglargecountries.
>Growthforecastsdon'tgoabovetwopercentuntil2022.
>Thekeyquestionremainsunanswered:willRussiaaddressreformsbeforeitgetsstuckinthemid
dleincometrap?Don'tassumeitcan'tbedone--Russiaiscapableofeffectiveadministration.Th
ehugeleapinRussia'sperformanceintheEaseofDoingBusinessrankingsshowsthatRussiacani
mplementneededmeasureswhenitwantsto.Itcanadministerpolicies.Russia'staxadministration
forinstanceisratedhigherthanthatoftheUS.Evenrealjudiciaryreformisbeingseriouslyd
iscussed.
>Thepoliticalsystemistheissue,accordingtoDmitriyev.Duringthiscrisis,thetraditionally
strongcorrelationbetweensupportforPutinandsentimentabouttheeconomyhasbeenbroken.Pol
iticalsupportforPutinremainshigh,whereasthesenseofeconomiccrisishasbecomedeep.
>Erosionofpoliticalsupportisgrowingfromthebottomup,assupportforlocalgovernmentshas
reachednewlows,andsupportforthegovernmentfalls.TheonlystronganchorisPutin'sowncha
rismaandpersonality.Thegeneraldeclineinconfidencehasn'ttranslatedintoprotests,whichis
"amazing,"Dmitriyevsays.Thelevelsofprotestsentiment,forinstance,arefarlowerthanthey
werein2010.Thisisaparadoxicalsituation.Thisisacomplexsituation.
>
>ClayBerry(ChiefEconomistforEurope,InstituteofInternationalFinance)!givescredittoRuss
ia'stightfiscalpolicyin2015forhelpingthecountryweathertheadjustment.Agreesthatthec
onsumerhasbornethebruntofthiscrisis.Therearealotoftheoriesaboutwhypeoplehavehand
ledthiscrisisascalmlyastheyhave.Thecountersanctionshavehurtconsumersdisproportionatel
y,butthegovernmenthasn'teaseduponthatapproach.BerryremainsskepticalaboutRussia'sabi
litytoattractinvestment.Effortssofarhavebeenunsuccessfulandunconvincing.
>Lookingat2016,sheexpectsareturntogrowthinthesecondhalfoftheyear,continuinginto
nextyear,butgettingnevermuchabovetwopercentatthebest.Thatrepresentsprotractedstagna
tion.
>Berryisnotoptimisticabouttheprospectforstructuralreform.Theproblemislackofpolitic
alwill.
>FiscalquestionsincreasebynextyearasRussiarunsthroughitsreserves.Willtheyintroduce
anewfiscalrule?They'vecutalot,that'showthey'vebeenmanaging.They'rerunningoutofroo
mtocutfurther.Post-2018somethingsbecomeinevitable,suchasraisingthepensionage.Thefl
attaxratemayhavetobeincreased.
>Russiaisnotincrisis,it'snotimploding,butit'sfacinglong-termstagnation.It'snotclea
rhowitcanescapethemiddleincometrap.Andyetpeopleareadjusting,they'rehunkeringdown,
they'renotprotesting.
>
>DanRussellasksDmitriyevaboutthestructuralchangehesuggestsmightbeunderway.Dmitriyev
saysCustomsreformisabrightspot.Russians'consumptionpatternsareshiftingtohousing,offe
ringopportunities.Butthereisnoguaranteeoffollow-throughonanything,onanyreform,sucha
sjudicialreform.Thesethingsarehardeverywhere,asinChina.Butsometimesevensomemarginal
improvementshelpalot.
>
>AndrewWeissasksaboutcronycapitalismandmonopolization.Aretheseonthetable?
>
>DmitriyevrespondsthatcorruptioninstateprocurementisoneareainwhichRussiahasmadepro
gress,judgingbyatleastanecdotalevidence.Somesuchtaboosaretherebybeinglifted.
>
>Dmitriyevsaysthethingaboutthepoliticalsystemisthatitdeliversonwhatit'ssupposedto
,anditisbroadlysupportedacrossalmostallgroups.Thisreinforcestheleadership'sbeliefth
atitdoesn'tneedtofocusonpoliticalreform,onlyoneconomicreform.
>
>Onequestioner(SteveBegun)notesthatanotherbrightnoteisthatdespiteeverything,foreign
investorshavebeentreatedfairlyduringthecrisis.Yetmanysignsarenegative,suchasinthe
autoindustry,whichisafflictedwithovercapacity.Mostdisturbingly,Begunsays,Russiaisbein
gpushedoutoftheglobalsupplychain.ItplaysnoroleandnoonelooksatRussiaasaplayeri
ntheglobalsupplychain.What'shappeningtothemiddleclass?
>
>Dmitrieyvbringsupthefactthattheeconomyisadjustingandrepeatsthattheconstructionsec
toristakinguptheslackwithbigprospectsforgrowth.Alotofthisisnaturaladjustment.The
mortgagemarketcangrow.InvestmentratesinRussiahavegrownby1.5percentperyear.Thisis
notanunusualrateforacountrylikeRussiaandRussiaisnotanoutlier.
>
>Questionaboutwhatincentivesthereareforstructuralreform?Academicallyyoucanunderstand
whythey'reimportant,butpracticallyit'snotclearwhyanyoneintheleadershipwouldsupportt
hem.
>
>Dmitriyevsaysthatthedemandforreformwillhavetobepushedfrombelow.Heagreesthatthe
elitesdon'tneedorwantreform.Thisisthebigquestion.Willpatiencerunout?It'sanopenqu
estion.
>
>AndyKuchinssayseconomicreformscan'tbedivorcedfrompoliticalreforms.
>
>GeneRumersaysheisatalosstosquarethe(relativelysanguine)picturepaintedbythepanel
istsandthepicturethatemergesfromthemediaofamuchmorediresituation.
>
>ClayBerryreturnstothepositivepoliciespursuedbytheCBR,suchasshuttingdownbadbanks.
Buttheneteffectofthat"good"policyisthatmoremoneyisnowflowingtogovernmentownedba
nks.Thisunderscorestheoversizeroleofthegovernment.
>
>Dmitriyevsaysthattheconcentrationofrentsintheoilandgassectordistortsthepictureab
outthesizeofthestate.Thereareinfactmuchmoredynamicconsumersectorstofocusonthatt
elladifferentstory.Dmitriyevremainsconcernedaboutthebankingsector.
>Dmitriyevsaysmasslayoffsremainabigconcern,ataboo.Thelackoflaborreformisaproblem
.Butatthesametimetheresultinglackofunemploymenthelpsthesystemadjust.
>
>WayneMerrysaysthereareveryfewsectorsonwhichoutsideinvestorscanmakemoney.
>
>HarleyBalzerasksabouttheproblemsfacingSMEsandthefactsomanyareshuttingdown.Dmitri
yevacknowledgesthatthewidespreadfailuresofSMEsisabigproblem.
>
>Inthesecondsession,DeputyAssistantSecretaryofStateforRussiaandEurasiaKathyKavalec
isaskedaboutthecommunicationbetweenRussiaandtheUS,andsaysthatalotofcommunicationi
stakingplaceinvariouschannels.Sheacknowledgesthatthe"feel-good"channelshavebeencutb
ack."Wehavelessinsightintowhat'shappeninginsidetheKremlin."ThedecisionsonSyriaando
ntheNationalGuard,forinstance,weresurprises.EventheMFAseemedsurprisedbySyria.Obama
andKerryhavebeenengagingPutin.Thereissomecapacitytocooperateonsomeissues.
>
>Therelationshipisbecomingmoremilitarized,perAndrew.Howtoavoidthingsgettingworse?Is
machinerybeingbuiltuponeithersidetoavoidaccidentalclashes?
>
>ThedeconflictionmechanisminSyriaisworkingprettywell,KathyKavalecsays.TheIncidentat
Seamechanismisworking,moreorless."ButwehavetohopetheRussiansdon'tconfusebrazennes
sforbravery."
>
>Question:AretheRussianslookingpastthisadministration?
>Answer:Theadministrationisdoingeverythingitcan,butit'ssomethingwecan'tcontrolifth
eRussiansarelookingpastObama.RussiastandsoutamongtheG20astheonlyonefavoringTrump
forpresident.
>
>AngelaStentasksifthenextadministrationshoulddoarealreviewofRussiapolicy?
>Probably,Kavalecsaystherearealotofquestionsthatneedtobelookedat,suchasonthei
nformationfront,themilitaryreassurancefront,onthepeople-to-peoplefront.
>
>AlekseyArbatovasks:Isthestrategicarmscontrolregimecollapsing?Whydidn'ttheStateDepa
rtmentacceptRussia'soffertodiscussthe1972conventiononincidentsatseaandthesafedista
nceslimitslaidouttherein?
>
>TomGrahamasks:howwouldyousuccinctlydescribetheRussiachallenge,andhowwouldyoudefin
etheshorttermandlongtermgoals?
>
>KavalecsaysthelongtermgoalisstillRussia'sintegrationwithWesterninstitutionsandit's
notunachievable.This(Putin)regimeisnotforever,afterall.
>TheshorttermgoalistobepreparedforassertiveandaggressivemovesaffectingourAlliesan
dcounteringinformationaggression.Butwestillneedtokeeplinesofcommunicationopen.There
aresomethingswecouldaccomplish.MaybewecanextendNewSTARTnow,forinstance.Syriamaytu
rnouttobeaplusfortherelationship.
>
>BillCourtneyasksabouttheMinskaccordsandhowit'sthefirsttimetheEuropeanshavebeeni
nthelead.Aretheymoreconfident?
>
>KavalecsayswearelettingtheNormandy-4countriestakethelead.UkraineisaEuropeancountr
yanditsissuesshouldbemanagedbytheEuropeans.
>AtthesametimeRussia'sactionsaredrivingothercountriestouniteandtomoveclosertothe
US.
>
>HowwillyoucharacterizeRussiainyour(hypothetical)transitionpaper,GeneRumerasks.There
aretwocontradictorynarratives,oneofRussiaonthemarchoneofRussianindeclineandisola
ted.YetyousayweneedtostanduptoRussiaandcounteritspropaganda-why?
>
>Kavalecsaysthereisaconnectionbetweentheirbrazenbehaviorandtheirunderlyingweaknesses
.Shepointsoutthatwenowdescribethesystemasauthoritarian,withoutqualifiers(suchas"so
ft").
>
>AndrewWeisssaysPutinsimplybelievesthattheUSwantsregimechange.Howdowemanagethat?
Howdowekeeparelationshipwithhimwhenhebelieveswewanttooverthrowhim?
>KavalecsaysweneedtojustdothebestwecanandrealizethatPutinisn'tforever,eventually
hewillgo.
>
>SurensayswehavebeenveryreactivetoRussia'sactions,howdowestartbeingproactive?
>
>Arethereanyareasinwhichpeopletopeoplecontactscontinue?Notreally.
>
>WhydoweseeRussiaasparticularlyimportant?
>
>InthethirdsessiononDomesticscenarios,DenisVolkovoftheLevadaCenterspeaksabouttrend
sinpublicopinionandhighlightsthehighpost-CrimearatingsforPutin,butnotesthatthenumb
ersdon'thavethesamemeaningastheywouldinacompetitivepoliticalsystem.Otherindicators
areheadingdowntopre-Crimealevels.Itwillbehardforthesystemtocontinueasusual.Thepr
otestmoodisnothighandpeopledon'tlinktheirownsituationstothoseofotherprotestgroup
s--horizontallinksamongprotestgroupsaren'ttakingshape.
>
>Thegovernmentcantrytocomeupwithsomegrandnewforeignpolicyinitiativebutnothingisl
ikelytobeaseffectiveasCrimeawas.SyriawasnotaseffectiveasCrimeaandonlygainedbyas
sociationwiththeaftermathofCrimea.Theseadventuresmaypropuplegitimacybutnotadvanceit
.
>
>TomGrahamofKissingerAssociatessaysherecentlyre-lookedattheNIEfrom1987onthenear-t
ermfutureoftheSovietUnionandthefourscenariosintheNIEdidn'tcapturewhatwasgoingto
happen.Wecan'tforeseethingsuntiltheyhappen,thenweexplainthemafterthefact.Someofth
atanalysiscontinuestoday,westraight-lineeventsandsomethinkofPutinasforever.Lookinga
tcurrenttrendswecanseehowtheregimecancontinueandisplanningforcontingencies,assome
earlierspeakershavenoted.Theregimehastoolstoensureitssurvival,theoppositionisweak
anddivided.
>ItissafetoassumethatPutinwillrunandwinin2018,butwhatwouldhavetohappentomake
thatchange?
>Putinhastogivetheelitesguarantees,hehastoprotectthem.Heneedstoprotectthemfromf
oreignenemies.ThisisoneofPutin'smainjobs.
>Grahamnotesthatbetweenthefalloflastyearandthisspring,somethingchanged.Before,peop
lethoughtthingswouldbegettingbetter.Now,theyactasifit'sthenewnormal.Thischallenge
sPutin'sabilitytomanageresourcesamongtheelite.
>ThesplitsamongtheelitesthatwehearaboutincludethatofKadyrovandtheintelligenceserv
ices,butthereareothers.Thestand-upoftheNationalGuardbroughtsomeofthoseforward.This
makesitharderforPutintomanagethecompetition.
>Managingthemasses?It'shardtoenvisionalargemassprotest.Buttherecouldbelocalizedpr
otests.OnlyasmallnumberofsuchincidentscouldcauseregionalleaderstoquestionMoscow'sco
ntrol.
>Reforeignpolicy,TomGrahamdoesn'tthinkforeignpolicyhasbeenadventurous,norhasitbeen
undertakenjusttopropupPutin'spopularity.They'renotlookingforthenextadventuretokeep
hispopularityabove80%.ButtheneteffectisthatRussiaisoverextended.
>IfIwereontheGeneralStaff,Grahamsays,Iwouldbelookingatresourcesandchallengesand
longtermcommitments.Therearegrowingsecuritychallengeseverywherethathavetobetakeninto
account.
>Afewchallengesthatstartsmallandgetoutofcontrolcouldraisequestionsamongtheelite.
"IcanenvisionascenariothatgetsustoaRussiawithoutPutin."ButaRussiawithoutPutindoe
sn'tmeanthesystemwillchangenecessarily.Itcouldleadtosomechangesinpriority,butwon't
changethewayRussiaapproachesthings.Russiawon'tbesomethingwecanintegrateintotheWest
erncommunity.WewillneedanewgrandstrategyforRussia.
>
>AngelaStentasksifRussiacouldn'tchangeovertimeunderanewleader?Evenifanewleaders
tartsoutfollowinginPutin'sfootsteps,anewleadercouldleadtoqualitativechange.
>TomGrahamsaysRussiahasn'tchangedin300years.Andallthechallengesthatithasnowwill
bethere.Itwillhavetochange,butademocraticbreakthroughisunlikely.
>
>Question:Howdoyouseeanelite(anti-Putin)coalitioncomingtogether?
>Answer:Itwillhavetocomefromwithinthesiloviki.That'showithappenedunderGorbachev.W
eshouldn'tfocusonjustthetoplayerofelite,weneedtothinkaboutthelowerlevelstoo.Thi
smaynotbeaclassiccoupscenario.Therecouldbeaguaranteedarrangementbehindthescenesth
atgetsPutintostepdown.Thesepeoplemaylookatthemathanddecidetheyneedtochangethe
systemorthecountrywillfallfartherbehind.
>
>TheRussiansmaynotbe"dissatisfied"becausetheyrememberhowbadthingswere,WayneMerryob
serves.MaybethisisthebestRussiaweget,maybeit'snotsobadforus.Democracyoftenproduc
esbadoutcomes.
>
>Grahamsaysthereareelementsofaharderrightthatcouldcometopower,fromamongthosewho
thinkPutinistoosoft.RussiacouldendupbeingmorechallengingfortheUS.
>
>AquestionforVolkov:HowmuchofthecountryisLevadaabletocover?Doweknowenoughabout
what'sgoingoninsidetherepublics,includingprotests?
>Volkovsaysregionalelitesarestillrelativelyhappy.
>
>AndrewWeissasksaboutwhatthenext"lurch"mightbe.Henotesthattheideological"winners"
sofarhavebeenthefarright.Supportforthatapproachmaybecoalescing,andseemsmorelikely
thatthanaconsensusforeconomicgrowth.
>
>TomGrahamsaysyesandno.Someindividualsseefarrightnationalismastherightapproach.Bu
tthesecurityservicesinRussiatendtobemoreprofessionalthanthat,they'renotwildrisk-ta
kers.TheyhadplannedforCrimeaandknewwhattheyweredoing.Forcewasusedjudiciously.They
wereneverplanningtogotoKyiv.Theyhaven'toverreacted,eventoourmaneuvers.There'snorea
listicreasontothinkthey'regoingintotheBaltics.Theycanbenasty,becauseit'slowriskto
benasty.Butit'sunlikelythatwewillfaceawildlyaggressiveforeignpolicy.Andthepeople
hereintheUSwhowarnaboutanaggressiveRussiaareprobablylobbyingformorefunding.
>
>VolkovsaystheCrimeaoperationwasn'tjustforpopularity.Butoncedone,itwasplayeddelibe
ratelyformaximumpopularity.Theyevensolditinawaytheyknewwouldgivethemmaximumrating
s.
>
>Question:WillPutinknowwhenit'stimetogo?Whocouldreplacehim?
>Grahamanswersthattheelitescanfindareplacementandtheywouldrallyaroundwhoeveritwas
,justastheydidin1999.
>It'sclearPutinisconcernedaboutathreatfromwithin,butifithappensthenhewillnothav
eseenitcoming.
>
>Q-Kazakhstan-couldachangeofpowertherethreatenRussia?
>
>Q-Whatwerepeopleprotestingin2011andhasthatprotestsentimentgoneaway?Whereisthat
protestnow?HowdoesitaffectPutin'sthinkingaboutDumaelectionsthisyear?
>
>A-Volkovsaystheregimeregainedtheinitiativeandmomentumandmarginalizedoppositionsent
iment.
>TheKremlinwaseffectiveinhowtheyaddressedtheprotest.Theymarginalizedpoliticalprotest
ersasnon-Russian.TheKremlinismoreconcernedaboutsocioeconomicprotestsandaboutthosepro
testslinkingupwithpoliticalprotests.
>
>AndyKuchinssaysweshouldn'tkeepsayingthatwecan'tpredictwhatPutin'sgoingtodo,what
wehaveisafailureofimagination.ShouldwehavebeensurprisedbyCrimea,bySyria?Couldn'tw
ehaveforeseenbothoftheseevents?
>
>GeneRumerasksVolkov:Isitcorrecttoconcludefromyourpresentationthatthedriversofdom
esticpoliticsareTV,andCrimea?Thesearethethingsproppingupthesystem?
>
>HarleyBalzersaysthefactthatYeltsinhandedoverpowerpeacefullyshowsthatsomethingshav
echangedinRussia,300yearsofhistorytothecontrary.
>
>VolkovsaysRussiansknowtheyarelivingbetterthaneverbefore,traditionally.Thisisthema
indriverofdomesticpolitics(stability).Nowthatthistrendhasreversed,itremainstobesee
nhowlongpeoplewillcontinuetosupporttheregime.PeoplebelievePutinwhenhesays"twoyear
s"forthecrisis.Theystilltrusthimaboutthis.Aslongasthissupportcontinuestheelitesw
illnotmoveagainstPutin.
>
>GrahamsaysPutinprobablydoesseetheneedtoretrenchandistryingtowrapupoutsideactivi
ty,andfocusontheeconomy.ThefearintheKremlinaboutaperestroika-2ismisplaced,Russiai
snottheSovietUnion.
>And,inresponsetoBalzer,GrahamsaysthechangeofpowerfromYeltsinwasinfactprobablya
softpalacecoup.
>
>ThefourthsessionisRussianforeignpolicyandRussiaintheworld.DavidHoffmanintroducesA
lekseyArbatovoftheCarnegieMoscowCenter.ArbatovtalksaboutrelationsbetweenRussiaandth
eUS.From2011-13Russiawasbeingreactive.PutinresentedhowtheUStreatedhim,afterhe'dco
metopowerthinkinghecouldimproverelations.OutsideofRussia,wherePutinwasbeingauthorit
arian,hewaspro-integration.HemovedforwardonmanyfrontswiththeUnitedStates,includinga
rmscontrol,hisresponse9/11.Inresponsehegotrejection.Helearnedthatbymakingconcession
shewouldnotgainrespectorequaltreatment.Russiawouldgetapatonthebackandnothingmor
e.Sowhenhecamebackin2012hedecidedthatthewaytogetrespectwastochallengetheWest,
eventhoughhehadnoplanforconfrontation.WhenUkrainehappeneditwasaturningpoint.Itwas
aninternalaswellasanexternalchallenge.LosingUkrainewouldhavehugerepercussionsforPu
tin.AndifUkrainesucceeded,itwouldhavehugeimplicationsforRussia.Itwouldchallengethe
wholePutinregime.Themassprotestsof2011werethefirstreminderofthethreattoRussia.In
Crimea,hetookrevengeontheWest.Itwasadefensivepolicybyoffense,defensethroughoffense
.ForawhiletherewasathoughtthattheDonbaswouldbeanexamplefortherestofUkraine,Put
ininvoked"Novorossiya."Butitdidn'tworkandsoPutindroppedit.
>WhatdrivesRussianpolicy,domesticorexternalconsiderations?Foralongtimeitwasinternal
lydriven.ThenRussiansgrewtoexpectgreatpowerrespect.AndPutintriedtodeliver.
>Withtheeconomicsituationdeteriorating,PutingavetheRussianpeopleCrimeainreturn.Thee
ventsintheDonbaswerenotaclearwinforPutin,theissuewasverydivisiveinsideRussia.Mar
riagesendedasaresultofdivisionsoverwhattodoaboutUkraine.
>SyriaprovidedPutinthechancetoshowRussiawasnotaregionalpower,asObamacalledit.Rus
siadidsomethingthatonlytheUScoulddo.Theactionwasdonepurelyforprestige,fightingjih
adistshadnothingtodowithit."Thatisabsurdofcourse,"Arbatovsays.Putinwasfightingcol
orrevolutionsinSyria.Syriastartedbysurpriseanditendedbysurprise,that'showPutinlike
stodothings.NowtheoperationinSyriawillcontinueatalowerprofilebecausethewarinSyr
iahasserveditspurpose.
>Moreovertheeconomyhasforcedcutbacksinmilitaryexpenditures.The2020programwasdesigned
foraGDPratethatwasdoublewhatitactuallyhasbeen.
>Arbatovsaysthisisnotthetimeforanotherforeignadventure.BUTatthesametimePutincann
otaffordtobeseenasweak,tobeseenasinretreat.Thatisatotaltaboo.Heisdeescalating
tensionwiththeWest.Buttherewillbenodeescalationifit'sseenasaretreat,asasignofw
eakness."Thisissoimportantitbearsrepeating,"Arbatovinsists.
>ThecurtailmentoffightinginSyria,theconcessiononarmedobserversintheDonbas,aresigns
ofPutindeescalating.Thesearemajorstepstowardreconciliation.
>IsRussiabecomingisolationist?Itisgoingthatwaynotbyitsownchoice.Russiadoesnotwan
ttobeisolationist.Russiaisanxiousforanendtoisolation.Russiacelebrates,forinstance,
movesagainstthesanctionsinFrance'sNationalAssembly.Self-relianceisnowthesloganofthe
day.Butnotisolation.
>GettingclosertotheWestendangersRussia'ssystem.ButRussianeedsinvestmentfromtheWest.
ThisisRussia'sbigdilemma.
>ThedilemmawithChinaisthatRussiaisvastlyinferior.GettingclosertoChinaopensRussiat
ounfairtreatmentbyChina.
>Sixty-fourpercentofthepopulationseestheUSasanenemy...Butmoreimportantly,Arbatovar
gues,thereare25percentwhoSTILLseetheUSasafriend.Thatnumberisamazing,consideringe
verything.
>Continuityandchangeinrelations:RussianolongerwilltolerateWesterninterferenceinitss
phereofinfluence.Russiaunderstandsequalityasmeaningthatitsinterestswillbetakenintoa
ccount.Nomoredoublestandards:iftheUSthinksitcandosomething,Russiathinksitcanaswe
ll.
>RussiawilldelinkitsdomesticpoliciesfromitsrelationswiththeWest.
>PRisofgreaterimportancetoPutinthantoanyotherRussianleader.
>Doingthingsbysurpriseisaprimedriver.Thisisafeatureofpost-Crimeapolicy.
>Foreignpolicyisbeingdonebypeoplewithlowintellectualcapacity,peoplelikePatrushevand
Bortnikov.Decisionsarebeingmadeinisolation,evenastheworldgetsmorecomplex.
>Russiawillnotshyawayfromanaction-reactiondynamic,evenifthereactionhurtsRussia'sin
terests.ActionswilltakenwithoutregardtowhattheUScounterreactionwillbe,includingthe
NATObuildup--areactionthatRussiahadnotthoughtthrough.
>Russiathinksithasmadeitspoint.Itisreadytocooperateaslongasitdoesn'tlooklikere
treat.
>TherearepotentialsolutionstotheDonbas,Arbatovsays,abovealltheofferforarmedOSCEob
serversontheborder.
>AslongasPutinistheretherewillbenomajorpoliticaloreconomicreforms,andtherewillb
enoresetwiththeWest.Buttherelationshipcanbemanaged.
>
>HoffmanraisesconcernaboutPutin'sasymmetrictactics.Werewewrongaboutthat?
>ArbatovsaysPutinwillbeasymmetricwhereheneedstobe,andhewon'tbewherehedoesn'tnee
dtobe.
>
>GeneRumersaystheEuroAtlanticsecurityarrangementthatcouldhavebeenexpectedbyRussiaha
sgoneaway.TheWestisseenasathreattoRussia'ssovereignty,astestifiedbyForeignMiniste
rLavrov'srecentarticle.NonethelessRussiaisnotanexpansionistpower.Theyhaveazoneofpr
ivilegedintereststhattheywilldefendagainstencroachmentsbytheWest,includingbymilitary
means.Thesixcountriesthatareinthe"greyzone"arethethreeSouthCaucasusstatesandBelar
us,Ukraine,andMoldova.Thesearethebattlegroundstates.USpositionsonUkrainearepushingi
ntothistightspaceandinvitingunpredictableoutcomes.
>
>Russianpolicyismadefromthetopdown.
>
>AdvicetothenewUSadministration?Rumer'sadvicewouldbe:WeneedtoreengagewithPutin.
>
>AdvicetoPutin?ArbatovsayshisadvicewouldbetostateclearlythatRussiaisnothreattot
heBaltics.
>Russiashouldmakeassurancesaboutnon-useofnuclearweapons.Russiaisreadyforweaponsredu
ctionstoo.
>
>TomGrahamsaysweshouldthinkaboutRussiaasanAsianpower,notjustaEuropeanproblem.Rus
siaisimportanttoAsia.CanweengagewithRussiaonAsia,whereweandtheymighthavemorein
common.
>
>Rumersaysthereareareaswherewecouldcooperatebutwebothwouldneedtoovercomeourmutua
lworldviews.Inprinciplewecancollaboratewhenit'snecessary.Butonlyintimesofdeepcris
is.
>
>ArbatovsaysRussianeedsinvestmentintheFarEast..Bothsidesneedtostopmisspendingresou
rcesonarmsagainsteachother,needtostartfindingareasofcooperation,whetherit'sinthe
Arcticorelsewhere.
>
>RussiansseeTrumpasunpredictablebuttheyseeClintonaspredictableinabadway,perArbat
ov.PutincouldhaveagoodrelationwithTrump,butasRussianshaveseenwithErdoganthatthat
isanunpredictablequality.
>LiberalsaredividedoverTrump.ButpeopleareworriedaboutClinton,thatshewouldfeelitne
cessarytotryextrahardtobetoughonRussia.
>Oneofthebigproblemsisthelackofcontactbetweenthemilitaries,andthedisrespecttheyh
aveforeachother.
>Rearmscontrol,ArbatovsaysPutintreatsarmscontrolasapawn,asawaytogetconcessionsi
notherareas.It'snotimportantuntoitself.ArmscontrolprogresscouldreturnunderanewUSa
dministration.
>
>ArbatovsaysthatifRussiaisignoredunderanewAdministration,itwilltakestepstomakeit
selfknown.
>RumersaysitwouldbeamistaketojusttrytowaitPutinout.
>
>CouldSyriabecomeanareaofcooperation?IfUkraineisresolved,Syriacouldbecomeanareaof
realmilitarycooperation,Arbatovsays.Arbatovsaysifhewereinchargehewouldsparenoeffo
rttotrytoresolveUkraine,itisthemostimportantRussia-Westconflictinyears,andneedsto
beresolved.
>JustpullingbacktheseparatistswouldnotworkforRussia,becauseUkrainewouldjustmovebac
kin.SoapeacekeepingforcealongwithRussianunitswouldbethewaytogo,Arbatovsays,toke
epthesidesseparatedbutreassurethesides.Itcouldbeawaytogetsanctionsremoved.Itwoul
dbeanunprecedentedconcessiononPutin'sparttoallowanarmedoutsidecontingentinthepost-
Sovietspace.
>
>Rehybridwarfareandtools,Russiacanusethemtoitsadvantage.It'sthefutureofwarfare.
>ArbatovsaystheUSneedstounderstanditsownfaultinthefactthatRussia-USrelationsareb
ad.ButRussia,typically,hasnowswungfromoneextremeofbehaviortoanother,fromoverlypass
ivetooverlybellicose."Weneednewrulesofbehavior."
>
>ReKarabakh,ArbatovsaysRussiaisbetweenthetwosides.Itisneutral.Turkeyplayedarolei
nthelatestconflict.RussiaismoreengagedinTransnistria,andthesituationismoredangerous
there,dependingonUSpolicy.
>
>ThecorridorbetweentheLOCsfromMinsk1andMinsk2shouldbewherethearmedUN/OSCEobserve
rsarelocated,Arbatovsays.Fromthere,theyshouldmonitortheRussian-Ukrainianborder,along
thewholeborder.ThiswouldremovequestionsaboutRussia'srole.
>
>
>
>SentfrommyiPad
 From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 05/17/201608:57:27AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:ElectionsPutin-style:"Russianoppositionactivists[NAVALNYandhissupporters]beateninairportassault[insouthernRussia],"
Subject:
washingtonpost.com,5/17

From:JohnBDunlop
Sent:Tuesday,May17,20168:57AM
To:howard@jamestown.org
Cc:paul.goble@gmail.com'waz2102@caa.columbia.edu'
Subject:ElectionsPutin-style:"Russianoppositionactivists[NAVALNYandhissupporters]beateninairportassault[insouthern
Russia],"washingtonpost.com,5/17

And:RussianoppositionleaderNavalny,supportersattackedbyCOSSACKS,
http://www.rferl.org/articleprintview/27740404.html
LinktoVIDEOoftheassault

And:ThecooperationoftheFSBandORGANIZEDCRIMEGROUPS,32pageanalyticalreportby
SWISSCounterintelligence.PostedbyOtkrytayaRossiya,repostedbycompromat.ru:
httP://www.compromat.ru/page_36903.htm

And:[Kadyrovs]PolicecordonoffvillageofChechenmanwhocomplainedtoPUTN,
themoscowtimes.com,5/17

And:KremlindeniesreportsonpossibleTAXRISEin2018,themoscowtimes.com,5/17

And:USdeputysecretaryofstateZIFF:Russiacancertainlymaketheviolenceceaseifitsochooses
inUKRAINE,kyvpost.com,5/16

And:Whenthemoneyrunsout:Russianofficialsarediscussingvariantsoffundingthebudgetwith
newTAXES,http://www.novayagazeta.ru/economy/73110.html?print=1

And:DavidAXE,RussiasnewMISSILEmeanstheNUCLEARarmsraceisbackon,thedailybeast.com,
5/17

And:PUTINLIKE?Notus,sayPOLANDandHUNGARYinresponsetoBillClinton,politic.eu,5/17

PolandandHungryreturnedfireTuesdayafterformerUSPresidentBillClintonaccusedthetwo
countriesofthinkingthatdemocracyistoomuchtroubleandwantingPutinlikeleadership.
ClintonwasmakingabroaderpointaboutthedangerposedbypopulistslikeDonaldTRUMP

And:HowRussiancitizensareconstantlybeingWATCHEDbytheregimeonreportbyInternational
HumanRightsorganizationAgora:http://www.svoboda.org/articleprintview/27738502.html

 From: Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 05/15/201612:00:59PM
To: DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>
Subject: JeffreyGoldbergandMarkLandleronthe'HillaryDoctrine'-TheAtlantic

IsThereaHillaryDoctrine?

Ithasseemedtome,foraslongasIvebeenwatchingHillaryClintonandBarackObamamakeforeignandnational-
securitypolicy,thatthedifferencesinoutlookandapproachbetweenthetwoofthemarefundamentalanddramatic.I
wouldcallthesedifferencesprofound,butIdontwanttobeaccusedofhyperbole.ItisnotjustthatClintonhasabias
towardactionintheinternationalarena,andthatObamaisfarmorehesitant,farmoreaware(tooaware,intheeyesof
critics)ofthedownsideofactionitisthattherearebasicdifferencesinthewaytheyunderstandAmericasroleinthe
world,andthequalitiesthatmakeAmericaexceptional.Theyalsodiffer,tomyeye,intheirunderstandingofAmerican
indispensability,andoftherelationshipbetweenpoweranddiplomacy.

TheonlypersonIknowwhospendsmoretimethinkingaboutthedispositionalandideologicaldifferencesbetween
ObamaandClintonthanIdoisMarkLandler,theNewYorkTimesreporterwhohascoveredtheObamaWhiteHouse
andtheClintonStateDepartmentandwhorecentlypublishedabook,AlterEgos(itsverylongandserioussubtitle:
HillaryClinton,BarackObama,andtheTwilightStruggleOverAmericanPower),thatexploresthesedifferences
throughtheprism,mainly,oftheMiddleEastcrisesthathaveconsumedtheObamaadministration.Landlerhaswrittenan
excellentbook,thedefinitiveexaminationtodateof,amongotherthings,apresidentwhohastriedtoextracttheU.S.
fromtheMiddleEast(withoutmuchsuccess,itgoesalmostwithoutsaying).AlterEgosisalsothemostauthoritative
attempttoexplainObamascomplicatedrelationshipwithhisfirst-termsecretaryofstate,athwartedcompetitor-turned-
stafferwho,ifshewinsthepresidencythisyear,willinheritaworldthatisinsomewaysasmessyastheoneObama
himselfinheritedfromGeorgeW.Bush.

LandlerandIdontseeeye-to-eyeonthedifferencesbetweenObamaandClintonhethinksthatshewillmakeforeign
policyinamorecautiousmannerthanIbelieveshewill.Itendtothink,mostofthetime,atleast,thatherLibya
experiencedidnotdiminishherardorforthearena.OnUkraineandSyria,forinstance,shethinksinmoreovertly
interventionisttermsthandoesObama.InaninterviewIconductedwithClintontwosummersago(onethatdrew
attentionforherimplicitcriticismofObamasunofficialforeign-policyslogan,Dontdostupidshit),sheconvincedme
thatshe,unlikeObama,hastheheartofaColdWarrior.InwhatItooktobeanothershotatObama,shesaid,You
know,whenyouredownonyourself,andwhenyouarehunkeringdownandpullingback,yourenotgoingtomakeany
betterdecisionsthanwhenyouwereaggressively,belligerentlyputtingyourselfforward.Oneissueisthatwedonteven
tellourownstoryverywellthesedays.

Ididnthavemuchdoubtabouttheidentityoftheweinherstatement.Irespondedtoherassertionbysayingsomething
Ibelievedeeply,whichisthatAmerica,inthelastcentury,savedcivilization.Ithought,ItoldClinton,that,defeating
fascismandcommunismisaprettybigdeal.

Sherespondedwithunvarnishedenthusiasm:ThatshowIfeel!Maybethisisold-fashioned.Okay,Ifeelthatthismight
beanold-fashionedidea,butImabouttofindout,inmorewaysthanone.

Obama,ontheotherhand,hasadifferentunderstandingofindispensability(youcanreadaboutObamasforeignpolicy
here,ifyoureinterested).Obamaisalsotoomeasured,tooambivalentandguarded,totoutAmericasachievementsin
anuncomplicatedway.(HewillseldomscoldanothercountryforitsbadbehaviorwithoutfirstassertingthattheU.S.is
farfromperfect,andprovidingexamplesofAmericasimperfections.)
LandlerandI,inarecentconversation,discussedhistheoryofthecase,whichisthatbiography,chronology,and
geographyaredestiny.Nowyoureintrigued,right?Soreadon.Thisisaneditedandcondensedtranscriptofour
conversation.

JeffreyGoldberg:Letsjustgetsomethingoutoftheway.TheBenRhodescontroversy.Putasidealltheextraneous
issuesIdontthinkthattheadministrationevertriedtohidethefact,beforetheelectionoftheostensiblymoderate
[PresidentHassan]Rouhani,thatitwantedtodoadealwithIran.AmIwrong?

MarkLandler:Thispuzzledme.TheWhiteHouseseffortstoopenachanneltoIranthroughtheOmanisbefore
Rouhaniselectionwerewell-knownandhavebeenreportedonbyanumberofjournalists.Inmybook,Idigintothe
earliestrootsoftheOmanchannelbecauseIthinkitrevealsthedivergentapproachesofBarackObama,HillaryClinton,
andespeciallyJohnKerrytowardIran.KerryandObamaweremoreintriguedbythepossibilityofsecrettalksClinton
wasmoreskeptical.IfBenwastryingtomanufactureanarrativethattheIrandiplomacybeganwithHassanRouhani,he
wasntverysuccessful,atleastwithme.

Goldberg:LetsgotoObamaandClinton.Ithinktheyarequitedifferentinthewaytheyapproachtheworld.Some
peoplearearguingtoyouthattheyrenotdifferentatall.Explainwhereyoucomeoutonthis.

Landler:Acommonargumentisthat,onthespectrumofAmericanforeign-policythought,fromtotaldovetototal
neoconservative,theyrebothliberalinternationalists.Theybothbelieveinrules-basedordertheyrebothabout
preservingthepost-WorldWarIIworldthatTrumanandAchesonandothersbuilt.Andtheysitclosetoeachotheronthe
spectrum.Butmyargumentisthatifyoulookattheirinstinctsandreflexesandthewaythattheyareapttorespondtoa
crisis,theyjustcomeatitverydifferently,andthisisinpartbecausetheycomefromverydifferentplacesbothintermsof
timeandgeography.Obamagrewupinthe70s,andhehadthisitinerantexistence,livinginIndonesiaforaperiod

Goldberg:LookingatAmericafromtheoutsidein

Landler:LookingatAmericafromoutsidein,assortofanexpatriatesviewofAmerica

Goldberg:AndHillaryisliterallyinthemiddleofAmericalookingout

Landler:Yes.Shesintheheartland,butalsointhe1950s,withaconservativeNavypettyofficerfather.Andsoshe
viewedAmericaasacountrythatwasaforceforgood,thatAmericaninterventionsgenerallycouldbeapositiverather
thananegativething.AndIthinkObamawasmuchmoreskepticalaboutthat.

Goldberg:Dispositionally,isHillaryclosertoJohnMcCainorBarackObama?

Landler:Inbasicdisposition,JohnMcCain.Thoughinpracticalterms,givenherpragmatism,Ithinkshewouldgovern
morecautiouslythanMcCainwouldgovern.

Goldberg:YouveheardwhatObamasaysaboutLibyawetriedtodoeverythingright,butitdidntwork,andthis
informedhisdecision-makingaboutSyria.ShewasahawkonLibya,butdoyouthinktheresachanceitsomehow
changedherreflexes?

Landler:IfyoulookatthewayshesapproachedSyria,startingoutforward-leaningonaidingtherebelsbackin2012
andcontinuingtofavorano-flyzonetoday,IwouldarguethatshestillbelievesthatLibyacouldendwell

Goldberg:Shethinksthateventoday?

Landler:Eventoday,thatitcouldendwell.MyviewonObamaisandyoumayormaynotagreewiththisthathe
lookedatLibyaanditconfirmedallthepreexistingproblemshehadwithinterventionism.
Goldberg:Heneverreallywantedtodoit.

Landler:Hedidntwanttodoit,andthenhedidit,andthenitturnedoutbadly,andthisconfirmedhisinstincts.

Goldberg:Maybeitturnedoutbadlyinpartbecauseheneverthoughtthatitcouldworkinthefirstplace.

Landler:Ithinkshewouldarguethatourimpulsewasright,anditwasmessierthanitshouldhavebeenforawhole
varietyofreasons,butthatitsstillaworkinprogressandimportantlyitshouldntpreventusfromdoingsimilarthings
indifferentplaces.AndifyoulookatSyria,IbelieveshethinkstheresmoreofaprospectfortheU.S.tomakea
differenceonthegroundthanhedoes.

Goldberg:Sofollowthisthrough.January,2017,letssayshebecomespresident.WhatcouldchangeinU.S.Syria
policy?

Landler:WellIthinkthatsheswanted,fromtheverystart,todosomethingtochangetheequationontheground.And
PresidentObama,Ithink,concludedyoucouldntdoenoughtochangetheequationwithoutamajormilitaryintervention.
Ithinkshewillatleastexplorethepossibilityofano-flyzoneandcreatinghumanitariancorridors.AndIthinkthatshe
wouldbewillingtosubstantiallyexpandthelevelofaidweregivingtorebelgroups[forinstancewith]MANPADS,and
thingslikethat.

Goldberg:Inyourunderstanding,shewasneverconvincedofObamasargumentthatiftheU.S.givesthemMANPADS
andthenoneisusedbysomeonetoshootdownanElAljet

Landler:Ithinksheworriedaboutthatbecauseshewaspartoftheoriginaldebateonwhatkindsofarmsshouldgoto
therebels.AndatthatpointeveryoneagreedthatMANPADSwereoutofthequestionbecauseofthedangerthatyou
talkedabout.ButIjustwondernow,facedwithasituationthatsjustcatastrophicallyworsethanitwasfouryearsago,
[if]shewouldbewillingtotakethatextrastep.IcantsayIknowthat.Imsurmisingthisbasedonthepublicstatements
shesmade.ShecallsitanintensificationandaccelerationofObamasstrategy,butthatcantakeonlysomanyforms.

Goldberg:HowhasheevolvedinhisunderstandingofAmericaninterventionism,andhowhassheevolved?Orhasher
thinkingnotevolved?Didtheyinfluenceeachothersthinkinginanyway?

Landler:Itsdifficulttoweighthesebecauseoneisthecommander-in-chiefandtheotherwasastaffmember.Butifyou
lookatthedebatesthatunfoldedovertime,sheprevailedinthecaseofLibyaanddidnotprevailinthecaseofSyria.So
hedrewsomeverystronglessonsfromLibyaandcouldnotbeswayedwhenitcametoSyria.Inhercase,Ithinkthat,
becauseshesolderandhasalongerframeofreference,alotofthelessonsshelearnedgobackmuchfurtherthanhis.I
think,forexample,whenshetalksaboutSyria,shecantalkaboutaKosovoprecedentinamuchmorecomfortableway
thanhedoes.SohemayhaveevolvedmorebutbecausehewasstartingwithIraq,andcameinwithrelativelylittle
experienceasaforeignpolicypractitioneroreventhinker,whereasshehadalreadyhad15or20yearsofeyewitness
experiencewithwhichtowork.WhenshethoughtaboutSyria,shedidntjustthinkaboutIraq,shethoughtalotaboutthe
Balkans.IdontknowhowmuchPresidentObamathoughtabouttheBalkanswhenhethoughtaboutanyofthe
interventionsduringhispresidency.

Goldberg:YouquoteJakeSullivan[Clintonsforeign-policyadviser]towardtheendofthebooksayingthatthe2008
Hillaryforeign-policymuscularitydidntworkforherthen,butthat[it]wouldworkbetternow,inthiscampaign.Doyou
thinkthatheisrightaboutthat?OrisObamaactuallyintunewiththeAmericanpeopleandwheretheyareonmattersof
foreignengagementmorethanHillary?IsuspectyouhighlightedthatJakequotebecauseyouprobablyhaveyourdoubts
aboutit.

Landler:Well,Ido.AndinfactIsaidintheepiloguethatitremainstobeseenwhetherhermoodmatchestheAmerican
publicorwhetherherinstinctsmatchtheAmericanpublic.JakewasspeakingintheaftermathoftheParisandSan
Bernardinoattacks.Atthatmoment,therewasnewpollingdataoutfromCNNandfromothersthatshowedforthefirst
timeinalongtimethatamajorityofAmericansfavoredsendinggroundtroopstoIraqandSyria.AndJakewassaying
thatinthatveryfraughtmomenttherewasarethinkingunderway.

Goldberg:Butthosemomentsareveryephemeral.

Landler:Yes,thesemomentsarefleeting.Thefurtherawayyougetfromanynational-securitycrisis,themoreAmericans
tendtofallbackintotheirpreexistingpatterns.SoImnotatallpersuaded.Andfurthermore,ifyoulistencarefullytoa
guylikeTrumpinthatforeign-policyspeechhegaverecently,Idontthinkhespersuaded.Imean,thatspeech,forallits
contradictionsandincoherence,madeaninterestingpoint,whichwas:Wereoutofthenation-buildingbusiness,andIm
notlookingtogetusintoanewwar.

Goldberg:Well,hetalkedasifObamahadbeeninthenation-buildingbusiness,whichisabsurd.

Landler:Whichisnonsense.ButwhatImsayingis:Obamaclearlyfeelsthathehashisfingeronthepulseofwhere
Americansareonthisissue.Andthatswhyhessereneanddoesntmindthumbinghisnoseattheforeign-policy
establishment,becausehethinkstheyretheonesthatareoutofstep,nothim.

Goldberg:Doyouagree?

Landler:Ithinkthathesbeenprettygoodatgaugingpublicopiniononthis.Theinterestinglargerquestionthat[the
dispositionallyinterventionisthistorian]BobKaganandIinterviewedBobKaganforthebookraisedisthatin2008
whenObamawaselected,thiscountrywaslivingonstrategicfumes,thatalloftheindispensiblenationrhetoricjustno
longerappealedtopeopleanymore.AndObamacorrectlytappedintothat.Americanswerejustexhaustedandnolonger
willing.

Goldberg:Thewhole,WereAmerica,wemustdothis,argumentnolonghasmuchsway.

Landler:Ithinkthatsright.ObamabelievesAmericadoeshavetoactwhenvitalnationalinterestsareinplay.Buthe
definesvitalnationalinterestsmuchmorenarrowlythanalotoftheforeign-policyestablishment.Oneofthethingsinmy
bookthatIthoughtwasatellingmomentwasadinnerhehadwithformerofficialsandforeign-policyexperts.Theywere
talkingaboutUkraine,andObamaasked,WillsomeonepleasetellmewhatAmericasvitalnationalinterestisin
Ukraine?And[BrookingsInstitutionPresident]StrobeTalbottwasjustsortofslack-jawed.Tosomeonelikehim,who
representstheforeign-policyestablishment,theideathattheU.S.wouldntimmediatelyrushtothedefenseofaformer
Sovietsatelliteisunthinkable.ButObamawasmerelypointingouttheobvious,whichwasthatourtradewithUkraineis
miniscule,andUkrainemeanssomuchmoretoPutinandRussiathanitdoestousthatRussiawoulddouble-downand
triple-downonanythingwedid.

Goldberg:Itswhathetoldmecoreintereststrumpperipheralinterests,andletsnotmakebelieveotherwise.

Landler:Andletsbewillingtowalkaway.

Goldberg:ButwouldHillaryClintoneversaythat?

Landler:Shewouldneversayitoutloud.Shemightsayitquietly.Butshewouldalso,Ithink,instinctively,wanttodo
moretopreventthatoutcome.Andthatswhyshestoldherfriendsshewouldsupportlethaldefensiveweaponstothe
Ukrainianarmy.Andthatis,bytheway,apositionthatmanyof[Obamas]advisersalsohad.

Goldberg:IagreewithyouthatherinstinctsaremoreMcCainishthanObamaish,butthequestionis,howconstrained
willshebeaspresidentbyrecentAmericanhistory,therecenthistoryofAmericaninterventions?
Landler:Well,itstherightquestiontoask.Peoplelovetopointoutsixmonthsintoanynewpresidencythisalways
happensthedegreeofcontinuitywiththeprecedingpresident.WithPresidentObama,itwasthefactthathelikedusing
dronesjustasBushlikedusingdrones.WithClinton,itmayturnoutthat,justasObamadidntlikemessyforeign
engagements,wellseesixmonthsintoherpresidencythatshesnotexactlymarchingintoothercountries.

Goldberg:AlthoughifshedidactuallyuptheanteinSyria,ormaybeinaplacelikeUkraine,itcouldbeinterpretedasa
decisivebreak.

Landler:Yes,thatcouldbetrue.And,again,itshardformetopredictbecauseshesasituationalist,andshellweigh
eachoneofthesethingsseparately.Idontthinkshellcomeinondayonewiththeideathatweneedtoripupthe
Obamaplaybook.ThisisnotlikeObamacominginafterBushandsayingthatthisisanewera,andwearenowmending
fencesandwindingdownwars.Shescertainlynotgoingtocomeinanddothat.Iwonder,though,whethershewillcome
inwithamoreenergeticpro-engagementvibethanPresidentObamahashad.

Goldberg:Engagementwith?

Landler:Allkindsofpeople.Imean,forexample,IthinkshelltrytohaveadifferentrelationshipwithIsrael.Wecanget
intothattoo.Itsinaseparatecategory,though.

Goldberg:Wellitsaseparatecategorybecauseitsanissuethatisadomesticpolitics[one]aswell.Myassumptionis
that,ifshebecomespresident,thatinMarchof2017shesgoingonwhatyoucouldcallaStabilizationTour,a10-capital
tour,fromSeoulandTokyo,toAbuDhabiandRiyadh,andJerusalem,and

Landler:AndmaybeastopinKiev,whileshesatit.

Goldberg:Goodpoint.AndWarsaw,andRiga,andParisandLondon,forthatmatter.Justtosayheresmyphone
number,werecool,dontworry,Imnotgoingtobecriticizingyouinpublic,Imnotgoingtocallyouafreeriderin
public.Butthatsanadjustment,acalibration,thatsnotabreakindoctrine.IsthereaHillaryClintonDoctrine,otherthan
beingasituationist?

Landler:Idontthinktheresacleardoctrine,justasthereisntonewithObama.Ithoughtitwasinterestingthat,inmy
research,theonetimeIfoundevidencethatherpeoplewerethinkingaboutaDoctrine,acapital-DDoctrine,wasin
Libya.AfterthecollapseofQaddafi,therewassometalkwithinhercircleabouthowshewasgoingtogetoutinfrontof
thisandgetcreditforit.AndJakeSullivansaidinanemailtoher,Werewritinganop-edandweshouldthink
ambitiouslyalongthelinesofaClintonDoctrine.AndIwonderedbythatwhetherhemeantaformofaggressive
engagement,interventionwhennecessary,butonethatinvolvedworkingwithawidevarietyofactors.Becauseifyou
remember,thewholehallmarkoftheLibyapolicywas,wehavetheArabLeagueonboard,wehavetheEuropeanson
board.Andshewastheonethatputallthattogether.Assecretaryofstate,shedidallthosetrips,andmadeallthose
phonecalls,andhadallthosemeetings.Sotheyweregivingher,internally,agreatdealofcreditforthecoalition.Libya
couldhavebeenabigpartofherdoctrine.

Goldberg:DoyouthinksheresentsObamaforlosinginterestinLibya,andbeinginsufficientlycommitted?Andvice
versa,maybe?DoyouthinkObamaresentsHillaryandtheotherpeople,fromTonyBlinkenandBenRhodesto
SamanthaPowerandGayleSmith,whopushedhimintosomethinghedidntwanttodo?

Landler:IdontthinktherewaseverthatmuchevidencethathewasveryengagedaftertheNATOoperationended.
Andfrankly,giventheownershipthatshehadoverthepolicy,itwasreallymoreuptohertostayengaged.AndIaskthe
questionofwhethershedisengaged.Aftertheinitialperiod,whenthingslookedliketheywereunfoldinginafairly
optimisticway,IalwaysthoughtitwascuriousthatshehadnoemailcontactwithAmbassadorStevens.[ChrisStevens
wastheAmericanambassadortoLibya,whowaskilledintheattackonthediplomaticoutpostinBenghaziinSeptember
2012.]

Goldberg:Thatwasveryinterestingmomentinyourbook.Ididntrealizethatshewasntincommunicationwithhim,
givenwherehewasposted.

Landler:Ithoughtthatthiswascurious.Somyquestionis,wassheherselfsomewhatdistracted,andhadshemovedon
tothenextchallenge?IfImPresidentObamaandImlookingatthis,Imthinking,Well,yougotmeintothis,soyou
shouldkeepbearingdownonit.

Goldberg:ShewasnttalkingtoStevens,theambassador,aboutLibya,butasyoupointoutinthebook,shewastalking
tosomeoneelsequiteabitaboutLibya,SidneyBlumenthal.IsSidneyBlumenthalgoingtohaveaprominentforeign-
policyroleinhernextadministration?

Landler:Idontknowifhewouldhaveaformalrole,butitscleartomethataformaltitledoesntmatter.Ifhedoesnt
haveaformalrole,hellcontinuetohavetheinformalrolethathehadthroughouthertermassecretary.Andthatrole,its
clearfromlookingattheemailsthathavebeenreleased,wasextraordinarilywide-ranging.Notjustthepoliticaladvicehe
wasgivingherandthebureaucraticadvicehewasgivingher,buttheothervoiceshewasbringingtothetable.

Goldberg:AndhewasactinglikeherintelligenceofficerforLibya.

Landler:Right,alotofthoseLibyaemailsfromBlumenthalwereactuallydraftedbythisshadowyCIAguy,Tyler
Drumheller,buthewasnttheonlyperson.Blumenthalwouldspendalotoftimebringingothervoicestoherattention,
andonotherissuesthathereallycaredabout.

Goldberg:Well,hewouldbefunnelingaconstantstreamofeitheranti-Israel,oranti-Netanyahu,commentary.Doyou
thinkthismeansanythingaboutthewayshewouldactuallymanagethisfile?Imean,peoplelikeus,wemakethis
assumptionthatshewould,toborrowaword,resetrelationswithNetanyahu,assuminghesstillprimeminister.And
whenIlastspoketoheraboutthisgeneralissue,shewassoundingveryhawkish,morehawkishobviouslythanObama.
Ontheotherhand,SidneyBlumenthal,Anne-MarieSlaughter,TomPickering,theyresendingherthisconstantstreamof
prettyhardcoreanti-Israelmaterial,sofaraswecanseefromthereleasedemails.Doyouthinkshedmoveleftonthis
issueifshebecamepresident?

Landler:IthinkinthiscasethatshedbemoreinclinedtotakeherleadfromBillClintonthanfromSidneyBlumenthal.

Goldberg:AndHaimSaban?

Landler:AndHaimSaban,obviously.IdosubscribetotheideathatshewouldseedrawingclosetoIsrael,closerto
Israel,asavaluablethingtodoforavarietyofreasons.Thisdoesntmean,bytheway,thattherewouldntbemore
tension,andevenantagonism,becauseshegaveaninterviewrecentlyinwhichshesaidthatanagreementbetweenthe
IsraelisandthePalestinianswouldstillbeoneofhertoppriorities.Andifshesseriousaboutpursuingthat,itshardto
pursuethatfull-scalewithoutantagonizingthecurrentIsraeligovernment.

Goldberg:MuchofyourbookisaboutMiddleEasterncatastrophes.ButyoudealextensivelywiththepivottoAsia.Do
youthinkthatHillaryClintonwillfigureoutawayinawaythatObamahasnttoputtheMiddleEastinabox,sothat
shecanfocusonotherthings?Doyouthinkshellsucceedincontrollingthis,wherehehasfailed?

Landler:ThelastfiveorsixpresidentshavefailedtoputtheMiddleEastinabox.Youknow,itsimpossibletopredict
thefuture,butIhaveasinkingfeelingthattheMiddleEastwilloccupythesamecentralpositioninthenextpresidencythat
itdidinthisone.Justlookatthesituationonthegroundtoday.TheSyrianconflictislikelytogetworsebeforeitgets
better.WiththeIrannucleardeal,willitplayadestabilizingrole,asthecriticsbelieve?Ordoesitactuallyrightthebalance
intheregionandproduceakindofstabilitythecoldpeacethatPresidentObamahopesfor?
Goldberg:Sothequestionis:IraninrecentweekshasdonevariousprovocativethingstheincidentwiththeNavy,
ballistic-missiletesting,therecalcitrantstatementsmadebythesupremeleader.Theresalsoanarrativedevelopingthat
thisadministrationwilldoanythingitcantopreservetheletterofthedeal,ifnotthespiritofthedeal.Doyouthinkthat
HillarywillhaveanewsetofpoliciesinplacethatwillmeanlesstoleranceforIranianshenanigans?

Landler:Ithinkthatshesgoingtopositionherselfastheenforcerofthisdeal,andifyougobackandlookattherole
shesplayedinIraniandiplomacythroughout,shesalmostalwaysplayedthebadcop.Shestheonewhoputtogetherthe
sanctionscoalition.

Goldberg:Doyoucreditherwithdoingmoreworkonthatthananyoneelse?

Landler:Yes,Ithinkso.[NationalSecurityAdvisor]SusanRicedidalotattheU.N.PresidentObamadidalotwiththe
Russians.ButHillarywas,withtheChineseinparticular,criticalinputtingthattogether.Ifyougobacktotheearliestdays
oftheIrannegotiation,whenitwasstillasecretchannelinOman,Hillarywasfarmoredubious,andmuchmorereluctant
togetpulledintoit.Anditwas,infact,JohnKerryandObamawhowerereallyleaningintoit.AndsoIdothinkshe
wouldcomeinandprobablywanttoputsomenewprogramsinplace,maybetherewouldbeawillingnesstoactmore
swiftlyonsanctionsagainstIranincaseofotherviolations,ballisticmissiles,forinstance,orinassemblingcoalitionof
countriestotrytostymieIran.AndIthinkthatunlikePresidentObama,who,Ibelieve,whateverhesaidpublicly,
privatelyhopedthatthedealwouldbeatransformationalevent,Idontthinkshehasanyillusionsaboutthat.Ithinkshe
assumesthatwecontinuetohavethisfundamentallyantagonisticrelationshipwithIran.

Goldberg:Acounterfactual:IfClintonhadstayedonforasecondtermassecretaryofstate,wouldwehaveanIrandeal
now?

Landler:Itsinteresting.Ididntposethatcounterfactualquestion,Iaskthequestionofwhether,ifHillaryClinton,had
beenelectedin2008insteadofObama,wouldtherehavebeenadeal?AndIthinkthatitspossibletoarguethatthere
wouldnthavebeen.

OneoftheinterestingthingsthatcameoutofmyreportingisthatshewouldhavefavoredhittingtheIranianswithnew
sanctionsafterHassanRouhaniwaselectedpresident.ThiswastheMenendez-Kirklegislation,which,ifyourecall,
PresidentObamamaneuvereddesperatelytopreventtheSenatefrompassing,becausehisviewwasthatitwouldblow
upthenegotiations.IknowthatHillarybecauseshestoldpeoplethiswouldhavefavoredsqueezingthem.Inthe
wordsofoneofheraides,Squeezethemagainandseewhathappens.Remember,thepresidentwastheonepushing
thedeal,andHillaryClintonwasnothingifnotaloyalimplementerofherbossspolicy.Soiftheorderonthetablewasto
getthisdealdone,Ithinkitspossibleshewouldhavegottenitdoneassecretaryofstate.Thequestioniswhethershe
wouldhavepursueditaspresident,andthereIhavemydoubts.

Goldberg:Ifshebecomespresident,whodoyouthinkwouldbehermostimportantforeign-policyadvisers,andsources
ofideas?

Landler:Yes,well,BillClintonisnumberone.Andthenshellhaveverytrustedaides,JakeSullivanatthetopofthatlist.
Andthenshehasthisextremelywide,heterodoxcircleofcontactsthatshellbepullinginformationfrom.Andthatll
includeBobKagan,itllincludeSidBlumenthal,itllincludeStrobeTalbott,itllinclude[formerU.S.ambassadorto
Israel]MartinIndyk.AndIthinkyouseesomesurprisingnamesandfaces.AnotherdifferencewithObamaisthatshesa
realspongeforinformationlikeherhusband.Forheritsanacquiredskill,forherhusbanditcamenaturally.Ithink
PresidentObamawasmorelikelytothinkthroughissueshimself,andreadalot,asopposedtocastinganextremelywide
net.Ithinkinhercase,shesmoreapttotalktoRepublicans.IthinkshellconsultJohnMcCain.Iwritealotabout,in
thisbook,aboutGeneralJackKeane,whosaprettyhardlineretiredfour-stargeneral.
Goldberg:Shelikesthenail-eatinggenerals,likeJimMattis.Theseguysarealsointernationalists,andstrongalliance
guys.IssheoutofstepwiththemoodoftheAmericanpeople,who,Imtold,atleast,dontwanttobeinvolvedwith
verymuchinternationally?

Landler:ImnotsureIdisagreewithyou.ImeanIdontthinkitstheperfectmomentforsomeonewhoisashawkishas
Ibelievesheis.ButyoualsohavetoentertainthedarkpossibilitythattherecouldbeaterroristattackonAmericansoil,
andthen,overnight,thesituationisdramaticallytransformed.

Goldberg:Well,ifthathappens,Trumphasaverygoodchanceofbecomingpresident,giventhenationalmood.Butlets
talkaboutTrump.Inhisrecentforeign-policyspeech,heattackedObamafromtherightandHillaryfromtheleft.What
wouldyouimaginehislinegoingforwardisgoingtobeonHillarythatshesawarmonger,orthatshesweakon
terrorism,orbothatthesametime?

Landler:Itwillprobablybesomecombination.

Goldberg:Hesnotboundbytherulesofconsistency,obviously.

Landler:WhatinterestedmeaboutthatspeechisthattherewerealsoechoesofObamainit.Imean,whenhetalks
aboutresettingrelationshipswithRussiaokay,well,wetriedthatoncebefore.Andthefree-riderthingisverymuch
there,aswasthecontemptfortheforeign-policyestablishment.WheredidIhearthatbefore?InaJeffGoldberg
interview.Imean,soIthinkthattheoddthingaboutTrumpis,hewillattackherfromtherightandhellhangtheIraqWar
votearoundherneck.Herestheironyitseightyearslaterandacompletelydifferentpoliticalfigureisgoingtohang
Iraqaroundherneck,aRepublicanthistime,justasObamadideightyearsago.Andthen,onthethingsthatwentwrong
overthepasteightyears,hecanjustlabelthatanObama-Clintonpolicywhetheritwentwrongforlackofdoing
enoughorwhetheritwentwrongforactingrecklesslyandusingpoorjudgment.

Goldberg:Thisiswhyoneofthemostinterestingquestionstomeiswhereshecomesdownontheintervention
continuum.Iguessthebasicquestionaboutherandneitherofusknowthisis,doesshestillhavethePeopleare
dyingandwemustdosomethingimpulse?

Landler:Inthecategoryofformativeexperiences,IthinkthatRwandaandtheSrebrenicaepisodesareonesthatshe
remembersvividly,andwhileshemaynotsubscribetoeverytenetoftheconceptofResponsibilitytoProtect,thats
whereherinstinctsaregoingtobe.

Goldberg:Goingbacktowhatwewerefirsttalkingabout,asignaldifferencebetweenObamaandClintonisthatshe
remembersRwandaandSrebrenicaandtheFirstIraqWar,thesuccessfulGulfWar,andObamahasnofirsthand
experienceoftheseevents.

Landler:OneoftheargumentsthatpeoplehavemadeaboutObamaisthathesatouttheformativeexperiencesfor
Democratsinwhichinterventionsworkedwell,andasaresulthisframeofreferenceisVietnamandGeorgeW.Bushs
Iraq.Andinhercase,thoughshecameofageduringVietnam,shethensawRwanda,Srebrenica,andKosovo.That
couldmakeforahugedifferenceinthewayyouthinkaboutintervention.Look,oneoftheconclusionsPresidentObama
drewwasthatwecantaffordthesethings,itsexhausting,andtheAmericanpeoplewonttolerateitanymore.Andhe
hadalotofreasontobelievehewasright.Imean,hedefeatedavastlybetter-known,better-fundedDemocratic
opponentinpartonthosegrounds,bylashinghertoanunpopularwar.Andthenwentontowinthegeneralelection
againstawarhero.

Goldberg:Itsinteresting,inordinarytimes,acandidatewhoisseenasmorerobustlyanti-Russianshouldhaveafairly
easytimeconvincingtheAmericanpeopleofherposition.ButshemightberunningagainstaRepublicannomineewhois
moresympathetictothecurrentRussianleaderthantheDemocraticnominee.Soeverythingsupsidedown.
Landler:Ifyougobacksixoreightmonths,andlookatwhoHillaryspeoplethoughttheymightbemeetinginageneral
election,IthinktheyprobablyfigureditwouldbeMarcoRubio,whohadneoconideasbutnotverymuchexperience.
Andshewouldhavebeenabletowinthatdebatefairlyeasilyonqualificationsgroundsandexperiencegrounds,andthis
wouldnothavebeenadifficultdebateforhertowin.

Goldberg:TheywerepreparingtorunagainstaRepublicanfromtheleftonthissetofquestions,andnowtheyare
runningagainstaRepublicanwhoishimselfrunningagainstherfromtheleftonforeign-policyandnational-securityissues.

Landler:Fromtherightandtheleft,atthesametime.

Goldberg:Weirdtimes.

Landler:Yep.

SentfrommyiPad
 From: KyleWilson<wilsonkyle81@gmail.com>
Senttime: 05/25/201601:22:14AM
BoboLo<bobolo_uk@yahoo.co.uk>CooperJulian<j.m.cooper@bham.ac.uk>carolinavendilpallin<carolina.vendil.pallin@foi.se>
teagueeliza@aol.comkeith.bush017@gmail.comRichardConnolly<r.connolly@bham.ac.uk>Phil<phil_hanson@btinternet.com>Roderic&
To:
MandyLyne<rodericlyne@hotmail.com>JohnBesemeres<john.besemeres@anu.edu.au>KlausSegbersFU<segbers@zedat.fu-berlin.de>
RodricBraithwaite<rqbraithwaite@mac.com>StephenFortescue<s.fortescue@unsw.edu.au>SilvanaMalle<silvana.malle@univr.it>
Subject: Fwd:Snyder

Subject:Snyder

HispointsaboutTrumparenoteworthy

TheWarsofVladimirPutin
TimothySnyder
JUNE9,2016ISSUE
PozdrowieniazNoworosji[GreetingsfromNovorossiya]
byPawePieniek
Warsaw:KrytykaPolityczna,240pp.,z34.90
EntscheidunginKiew.UkrainischeLektionen[DecisioninKiev:Ukrainian
Lessons]
byKarlSchlgel
Munich:CarlHanser,352pp.,21.90
NothingIsTrueandEverythingIsPossible:TheSurrealHeartoftheNew
Russia
byPeterPomerantsev
PublicAffairs,241pp.,$25.99
ThomasDworzak/MagnumPhotos

VladimirPutinatanice-skatingeventinSochi,Russia,beforetheOlympics,
April2013

1989,theyearthatthePolishwarreporterPawePieniekwasborn,was
understoodbysomeintheWestasanendtohistory.Afterthepeaceful
revolutionsinEasternEurope,whatalternativewastheretoliberaldemocracy?
Theruleoflawhadwontheday.Europeanintegrationwouldhelptheweaker
statesreformandsupportthesovereigntyofall.PeterPomerantsev,thesonof
SovietdissidentswhoemigratedtoBritainin1978,couldreturntoRussiato
workasanartist.KarlSchlgel,adistinguishedGermanhistorianofRussian
migrs,couldgostraighttothesourcesinMoscow.

ButwastheWestcomingtotheEast,ortheEasttotheWest?By2014,a
quarter-centuryaftertherevolutionsof1989,Russiaproposedacoherent
alternative:fakedelections,institutionalizedoligarchy,nationalpopulism,and
Europeandisintegration.WhenUkrainiansthatyearmadearevolutioninthe
nameofEurope,RussianmediaproclaimedthedecadenceoftheEU,and
RussianforcesinvadedUkraineinthenameofaEurasianalternative.

WhenPieniekarrivedinKievinNovember2013asayoungmanoftwenty-
four,hewasobservingthelatest,andperhapsthelast,attempttomobilizethe
ideaofEuropeinordertoreformastate.Ukrainianshadbeenledtoexpect
thattheirgovernmentwouldsignanassociationagreementwiththeEuropean
Union.Frustratedbyendemiccorruption,manyUkrainianssawtheaccordasan
instrumenttostrengthentheruleoflaw.Moscow,meanwhile,wasdemanding
thatUkrainenotsigntheagreementwiththeEUbutinsteadbecomeapartofits
newEurasiantradezoneofauthoritarianregimes.

ADVERTISING
inReadinventedbyTeads
Atthelastmoment,RussianPresidentVladimirPutindissuadedtheUkrainian
president,ViktorYanukovych,fromsigningtheEUassociationagreement.The
Russianmediaexulted.Ukrainianstudents,whohadthemosttolosefrom
endlesscorruption,gatheredonNovember21onKievscentralsquare,the
Maidan,todemandthattheagreementwiththeEUbesigned.Pieniekarrived
afewdayslater.AfterpolicebeatthestudentsonthenightofNovember30,the
youngmenandwomenwerejoinedbyhundredsofthousandsofothers,people
whowouldbravethecold,andworse,forthenextthreemonths.

TheEuromaidan,astheprotestswerecalledatfirst,wasmulticulturaland
anti-oligarchical.Ukrainiansweretakingrisksforalocalgoalthatishardto
understandbeyondthepost-Sovietsetting:Europeanizationasameanstoundo
corruptionandoligarchy.Byenrichingasmallclique,writesPieniekinhis
collectionofreportagefromUkraine,Yanukovychbroughtthestatetothebrink
ofactualcollapse.InDecember2013Russianleadersmadefinancialaidto
Yanukovychsgovernmentcontingentuponclearingthestreetsofprotesters.
Thegovernmentssubsequentescalationofrepressionfirstthesuspensionof
therightstoassemblyandfreeexpressioninJanuary2014,andthenthemass
shootingofprotestersinFebruaryturnedthepopularmovementintoa
revolution.OnFebruary22,YanukovychfledtoRussia.(Twoyearslater,his
politicalstrategist,PaulManafort,wouldresurfaceintheUS,playingthesame
roleforDonaldTrump.)Afterthefailureofitspolicyofrepressionbyremote
control,RussiainvadedUkrainesCrimeanpeninsula.ByMarchRussianswho
hadtakenpartinthatcampaignwerearrivingintheindustrialDonbasregionof
southeasternUkraine,Yanukovychsonetimepowerbase,tohelporganizea
separatistmovement.1

InhabitantsofsoutheasternUkrainehadjustasmuchreasontobedissatisfied
withcorruptionasanyoneelse,anditwasreasonabletofearthattherevolution
inKievwasnothingmorethanaswingofthependulumfromsomeoligarchsto
others.Justhowthesesentimentsmighthavebeenresolvedthroughnegotiations
orelectionswewillneverknow,sincetheRussianinterventionprecludedboth,
bringinginsteadfearandbloodshedthatchangedeveryonespolitical
calculations.Sloviansk,asmallcityintheDonbas,wasanearlygatheringpoint
forseparatists.WhenPieniekarrivedthereinApril2014,hefoundtheplace
crawlingwitharmoredpersonnelcarriers,andunderstoodthatlocaloppositionto
therevolutioninKievwassupportedbyoutsideforces.TheRussiancitizenIgor
Girkin,aveteranoftheCrimeaninvasionandthecommanderoftheseparatist
forces,hadmadeSlovianskhisheadquarters.

UnderGirkinssupervisionapeoplesmayorarrestedtheelectedone,andthe
newauthoritiesmurderedtwopeoplewhoopposedthem.WhentheUkrainian
governmentsentpolicementoinvestigatethecrime,theywerearrestedbythe
separatistsandphotographedinhumiliatingpositionsimagessuggestingthe
localdissolutionofUkrainianstatepower.AsPieniekreported,powernow
residedintheformerheadquartersoftheUkrainianstatepolice,whichRussian
soldiersandofficersusedastheirbase.

ByMarch2014CrimeahadbeenannexedbyRussia,andinAprilfurther
RussianannexationsofUkrainianterritoryseemedpossible.Putinspokethat
monthofaNewRussia(Novorossiya),meaningDonetskandfiveother
regionsofeasternandsouthernUkraine.TheGermanhistorianKarlSchlgel
wasfollowingPutinslanguagewithinterest.Asherecallsinhisnewbook,
PutinmaintainedthattheuseoftheRussianlanguagebeyondRussiasborders
justifiedRussianinvasion.Iftheunityoflanguagegroupswereacceptedasa
principleofrule,theninternationalstateborderswouldceasetomatter.
WorldWarIIbeganfromsucharguments(thinkoftheAnschlussandtheend
ofAustria,theSudetenlandandthedestructionofCzechoslovakia,andDanzig
asapretextforwaragainstPoland).ThusthefoundersofEuropeanintegration
insistedthatstatebordersberespectedandissuesofhumanrightsberesolved
withintheirnecessarilyimperfectconfines.Pieniekwascontinuallystruckby
thefactthatseparatistscharacterizedtheEuropeanorderasfascist,evenas
theyspokeofthesignificanceofcommonlanguageandcommonblood.What
theymeant,herealized,wassimplythateveryonewhodoesnotsupportRussia
isafascist.

Ukraineisabilingualcountrywithacosmopolitanrulingclass.Becausealmost
allUkrainiansspeakRussianaswellasUkrainian,theybelongtowhatPutin
callstheRussianworld(russkiimir).Yetthisworld,asSchlgelshows,is
bynomeansalignedwiththepoliticsofMoscow.Ashemovedthroughthe
Ukrainianeastandsouthin2014,makingeruditehistoricalsketchesofcities,he
foundanappealingvariety.Kharkiv,auniversitytownneartheRussianborder,is
governedbypeoplewhotakeasympatheticviewofRussiabuthaverejected
separatism.Dnipropetrovsk,theonetimeSovietrocketcity,becamethe
gatheringpointofRussian-speakingUkrainianvolunteerswhofoughtagainst
separatistsandRussians.CosmopolitanOdessaexcelledinmockeryofPutin.2

ThecityofDonetskfelltotheseparatistsforlocalreasons.3Inspring2014,its
localoligarchswereindecisiveandtried,disastrously,toplayKievandMoscow
againsteachother.Thishadlittletodowithethnicitythemostimportant
Donetskoligarch,RinatAkhmetov,isaVolgaTatar.Withlocalpoweruncertain,
RussianveteransoftheCrimeancampaigncouldtraveltoDonetskatatime
whenUkrainiancentralauthoritieshinderedsuchpeoplefromreachingother
eastUkrainiancitiessuchasKharkiv.AfterwardRussiantroopscouldmoveinto
DonetskacrossaborderthatUkrainianauthoritieswereunabletocontrol.Some
oftheRussianregularsoldierswereSiberians,andmanyoftheirregularswere
Chechens.ThuspeoplewhodidnotspeakRussianwerekillingpeoplewhodid
inordertodefendtheRussianlanguageinaplacewhereitwasnever
threatened.4Schlgelwrites:

ThecityofDonetsk,oncehometoamillionpeople,becameaghosttown,
terrorizedbybandsofcriminals,Chechenwarveterans,specialforces,Russian
hightechexperts,andpeoplewhohavemadecareersinpublicrelations.

Thatlastcategorywasasimportantasalltheothers.

DespitetheannexationofCrimeainMarch2014andseparatistcontrolofthe
cityofDonetskinApril,byMayRussiawasfacinghumiliatingdefeat.
ThroughoutthecountrytheRussianinterventionhad,asPienieknotes,
strengthenedthesenseofUkrainianidentity.TheCrimeanmodelofRussian
controlwasirrelevantinalmostallofUkraineandwasfailinginthesoutheast.
InCrimeaRussiahadanetworkoflocalturncoats,considerablesupportfrom
localRussians,andmilitarybasesfromwhichtolaunchaninvasion.Without
suchresourcesthelimiteddetachmentsofRussianspecialforces,knownin
Ukrainefortheirlackofinsigniaaslittlegreenmen,couldnotcontrolthe
southeast.FourofthesixsoutheasterndistrictsthatPutincalledNewRussia
hadproducednoseparatistmovement.TheseparatistholdontheDonetskand
Luhanskregionswaspartialandshaky.

TheUkrainianleadershipnowdecidedtofight.AlthoughtheUkrainianarmed
forcesweresmall,theyquicklydrovebackseparatists.Ukraineusedairpower
todeploytroopsanddestroysomeofthearmortheseparatistshadseizedfrom
UkrainianforcesorobtainedfromRussia.InMay2014Kievwasabuzzwith
rumorsofaUkrainianoffensiveonDonetsk.Tostoptherout,Moscowhadto
bringdowntheUkrainianairforce.InJuneRussiantroopscrossedtheborder
withtanksandantiaircraftbatteries.AboutadozenUkrainianaircraftwere
quicklyshotdown.5
TheRussiandecisiontoescalatebroughtaboutamajorwarcrime.Oneofthe
numerousRussianmilitaryconvoysinthoseweeksdepartedfromitsbasein
KurskonJune23.ItwasadetachmentoftheRussian53rdAirDefense
Brigade,boundforDonetskwithaBUKantiaircraftmissilelauncherbearingthe
marking332.OnthemorningofJuly17,thisBUKlauncherwashauledfrom
DonetsktotheUkrainiantownofSnizhne,andthenbroughtunderitsown
powertoafarmsteadsouthofthattown.

Butforwhathappenednext,thistransportofaRussianweaponwouldhave
simplybeenoneofseveralphotographedbylocalsandignoredbytheworld.
MalaysianAirlinesFlight17,carrying298passengersfromAmsterdamtoKuala
Lumpur,wasflyingjustthenoversoutheasternUkraine.At1:20itwasstruckby
hundredsofhigh-energyprojectilesreleasedbytheexplosionofa9N314M
warheadcarriedbyamissilefiredfromthatBUKlauncher.Theprojectiles
rippedthroughthecockpitandinstantlykilledthecockpitcrew,fromwhosebody
partssomeofthemetalwaslaterextracted.Theaircraftwasblowntopiecesat
itscruisingaltitudeof33,000feet,itspassengersandtheirbaggagescattered
overaradiusofthirtymiles.6

SchlgelcouldfollowtheconvoyoftheBUKonhiscomputerscreen.The
youngjournalistPieniekracedtothesitewherethelargestpiecesof
wreckageandanumberofcorpseswerefound.Althoughhewasthefirst
reporteronthescene,onedayafterthecrash,itsstoryhadalreadybeentoldon
Russiantelevision.TwoRussiannetworksclaimedthatUkrainianaircrafthad
shotdowntheplane.Threeothernetworksprovidedamotive:Ukrainian
authoritieshadintendedtoshootdownanaircraftcarryingPutin,andhadmade
amistake.Longbeforethe298corpseshadbeenassembledandidentified,the
victimshadbeendefinedintheRussianmedia:theRussianpresidentandhis
people.

Inthedaysthatfollowed,Russianmediapurveyedfurtherversionsofthe
disaster:fictional,contradictory,andsometimesgrotesque.WhatRussianscall
thezombiestory,thattheCIAfilledtheplanewithcorpsesandexplodeditby
remotecontrol,enjoyssurprisinglongevity.TheRussiantacticsareeasierto
mockthandismiss.AlargemajorityofRussians(86percentin2014,85percent
in2015)blameUkraineforshootingdowntheflightonly2percentblamedtheir
owncountry,withmostoftheremainderoptingfortheUnitedStates.7

HowdidRussiareachapoint,initsmediaandpolitics,wherethefactof
RussiansoldiersmistakenlyshootingdownacivilianairlinerduringaRussian
invasionofaforeigncountrycouldbetransformedintoadurablesenseof
Russianvictimhood?Forthatmatter,howdidRussianstakesoeasilytotheidea
thatUkraine,seenasafraternalnation,hadsuddenlybecomeanenemy
governedbyfascists?8HowdoRussianstakeprideinaRussianinvasion
whileatthesametimedenyingthatoneistakingplace?Considerthedarkjoke
nowmakingtheroundsinRussia.Wifetohusband:Oursonwaskilledinaction
inUkraine.Husbandtowife:Weneverhadason.

BoththehistorianSchlgelandthetelevisionproducerandwriterPeter
Pomerantsevmakethecasethatthisextraordinaryflexibilitywasthe
consequenceofearlierdevelopmentswithinRussiaitself.Theso-called
Ukrainiancrisis,maintainsSchlgel,isaboveallaRussiancrisis.

AsthereleaseofthePanamaPapershasonceagainconfirmed,Russiansand
Ukrainiansconfrontthesamecentralproblem:theweaknessoftheruleoflaw.
UnlikeUkraine,Russiahasnaturalgasandoil,astrongarmy,andapropaganda
apparatusthatcanbeusedtodelay,distract,andconfuse.Schlgelobservesthat
theRussianleadershipfailedtousetheprofitsfromenergyexportstodiversify
theeconomyduringtheflushfirstdecadeofthetwenty-firstcenturywhen
priceswerehigh.Weshould,hethinks,seethepoliciesofinstitutionaloligarchy,
militarybuildup,andmediacoordinationasinternalandmisguidedRussian
choicesthatmadeforeignwarslikely.Henotesthatotherobservershavefound
theRussianpropagandaofethnicjusticeandantifascismmoreappealingthan
thebasicsofpoliticaleconomy.PropagandaconceitsofthiskindallowRussians
todefinethemselvesasthevictimstheypermitoutsiders,asSchlgelnotes,to
discussthewarwithoutknowinganythingaboutRussiaitself.

PomerantsevspentthatglitteringdecadeofmismanagementinMoscow,andhe
becamethechroniclerofothershopesandlosses.Hisbookpresentsitselfas
thememoirofayoungartistwithafilmhewantstomakebutcannot.Itwould
beaboutthesuicidesofRussianfashionmodels,thebeautifulgirlswhoseemed
todosowellinpost-SovietRussiabutthentooktheirownlivesbyjumpingfrom
buildings.Hedescribesagenerationoforphaned,high-heeledgirlsseeking
security,andnotfindingit,fromoldermenwhogrewwealthyduringthe2000s.
Themoodofthebookisoneofvertigo,ofcrashesthatcanbedelayedand
deniedbutnotavoided.Theimagesofoneofhissuicidemodelswerecirculated
inMoscowlongafterherdeath,promisingenchantment.

JeromeSessini/MagnumPhotos
Unarmedanti-governmentprotestersbeingfireduponbysnipers,Maidan
Square,Kiev,February2014
PomerantsevarrivedinMoscowasthemediumoftelevisionwasbroughtunder
statecontrol.InOctober2002,Russiansecurityforceskilled129hostages
duringanattackonChechenterroristswhohadtakenoveraMoscowtheater.
Televisioncamerasrecordedthedeathsofthehostages.Afterthat,
Pomerantsevsays,thelastprivatetelevisionchannelwasbroughttoheel,and
thestatebegantoorchestrateamisleadingpluralism:theTVstationslooked
different,butsaidthesamething.Leadersofacceptedpartiesmightgetmoreor
lesstimeondifferentchannels.Theirpresencewasmeantonlytoconfirmthe
inevitabilityofPutin.

AsPomerantsevrecalls,whenthebeetroot-facedcommunistsandthespitting
nationalistsrowonTVdebatingshows,theviewerisleftwiththefeelingthat,
comparedtothislot,thePresidentistheonlysanecandidate.Pomerantsev
considersthefateofawomanwhocreatedherownapparentlylegitimate
chemicalbusinessawayfrompropagandaandpolitics.Butthereisnoescape:
entrepreneursinRussiaarevulnerabletoarbitraryfiscalandlegalreviewsatthe
whimsofrivals,andshewasarrested(ostensiblyfordealinginillegalnarcotics).
Behindbarsthesurrealbecomesunavoidable:Blackiswhiteandwhiteis
black,asPomerantsevparaphrasesthebusinesswoman.Thereisnoreality.
Whatevertheysayisreality.[She]begantoscream.

AlthoughPomerantsevpresentssuchstoriesasanelementofapostmodern
world,amoreearthboundreadingmightbethatRussia,likeUkraine,hasfailed
inthemoderntaskofestablishingtheruleoflaw.ManyRussians,forthat
matter,reactedtothisfailureinmuchthesamewayasUkrainiansdidin2013.
ShortlyafterPomerantsevleftMoscow,Russiansprotestedthefalsified
parliamentaryelectionsoflate2011.Putinclaimedthatmembersofopposition
groupshadrespondedtoasignalfromSecretaryofStateHillaryClinton,and
Russianpolicearrestedtheirleaders.ThisisonereasonmuchoftheRussian
eliteopenlybacksTrumpoverClinton.(Theother,ofcourse,istheirconviction
thatTrumpwilldestroyUSpower.)

ThoughtheRussianmediafollowedPutinslinein2011,theveryfactofthe
protestsseemedtoshowthatmediacontrolandcoordinationwerenotenough.
TheemergingstratagemwastomergeRussiannewswithforeignnews:to
makeitseemasifmuchthathappenedabroadwasaboutRussia,sinceforeign
leadershadnothingontheirmindsbutthedisruptionofRussianpolitics.Inthis
wayRussiasgrowingsocialandeconomicproblemscouldbeignoredevenas
Russiansbelievedthattheywereatthecenterofworldattention.

Aftertheprotests,Putinturnedawayfromthemiddleclassandembraced
nationalpopulism.TherejectionoftheEUasdecadentandthecreationofthe
Eurasianalternativealsoarosefromthisexperience.SowhenUkrainians
protestedinfavoroftheEUinlateNovember2013,Russianleadersunderstood
thiswithinthestorylinetheywerewritingforthemselves.Ratherthandwelling
onthesimilaritiesbetweenUkrainianandRussianproblemsandthe
uncomfortableabilityofUkrainianstodemandreform,theRussianmedia
definedtheEuromaidanasaneruptionofEuropeandecadence.

TheEuropeanUnionwasalreadycalledGayropanowtheEuromaidanwas
calledGayeuromaidan.OnceRussiantroopsinvadedCrimea,happyendings
gavewayontelevisionscreenstosplendidlittlewars.Russiaseconomicdecline
continued,butthiscouldnowbepresentedasthepriceofforeignglory.Through
September2015,themainsubjectcouldbeUkraine.ThatOctober,itchangedto
Syria.

ThenewRussianwarsareaBonapartismwithoutaNapoleon,temporarily
resolvingdomestictensionsindoomedforeignadventures,butlackingavision
fortheworld.Idealsarerecognizedinordertobemocked.Thisisanewtype
ofKremlinpropaganda,writesPomerantsev,lessaboutarguingagainstthe
Westwithacounter-modelasintheColdWar,moreaboutslippinginsideits
languagetoplayandtauntitfrominside.Authoritarianismisthebestofall
possiblesystemsthethinkinggoesbecausetheothersare,despite
appearances,nobetter.Lyingintheserviceofthestatusquoisperfectly
justified,sincetheothersidesliesaremorepernicious.

Allproblems,inthisworldview,arisefromillusoryhopesofimprovement
arousedbyforeignpowers.Policepowerisauthentic,whereaspopular
movementsarenot.Killingintheserviceofthestatusquoisnecessary,since
nothingismoredangerousthanchange.InthepartsofsoutheasternUkraine
underRussianandseparatistcontrol,millionsofpeoplehavelosttheirhomesand
thousandstheirlives,butthepropertyoftheoligarchsisuntouchedandthose
separatistswhobelievedtheywerefightingagainstoligarchyhavebeen
murdered.9

Mustprotestsforjusticebringforeigninvasion,stupefyingpropaganda,and
squalidmurderinthenameofmaintainingthewealthofafew?Thisisthe
essenceofRussianforeignpolicy:enforcingtheprinciplethatpubliceffortsto
changepoliticsforthebettermustbringwarandnormalizationtousethe
termmadenotoriousaftertheRedArmyanditsWarsawPactalliesputdown
thePragueSpringin1968.Pomerantsev,whoisconcernedwiththeconnections
betweenthelate-Sovietandthepost-Soviet,deftlyrevealsthesignificanceofthe
revolutionsof1968asaturningpointinSovietpoliticsandindissidentpolitical
thought.

WhenSovietforcescrushedtheCzechoslovakshopesforsocialismwitha
humanface,PomerantsevsmotherwasaSovietschoolgirl.AKGBofficer
whohadtakenpartintheinvasionlatervisitedherclassroom,regalingthe
childrenwithstoriesofthedefeatoftheCzechoslovakreformmovement.Until
thenthegirlhadbelievedtheofficialversion:thattheSovietarmyhadintervened
tostopaWestern-backedfascistcoup.Surprisedbywhatshewashearing,she
asked:Youmeantheywerenthappytoseeyou?ThelooktheKGBman
gavehersaiditall:shewastounderstandthattheofficialversionwasalie,and
thatthedutyofSovietcitizenswastoknowinglylivewithinsuchlies.

AftertheinvasionofCzechoslovakia,SovietleaderLeonidBrezhnevpromised
fraternalassistancetoanyEasternEuropeancountrythatseemedtodepart
fromtheofficialline.ToSovietcitizensBrezhnevproposedreallyexisting
socialism,thenotionthatdespitethedrearinessoflifenothingbetterwas
possible.ForKGBmeneducatedinthe1970s,suchasVladimirPutin,instability
andchangeweretheenemiesmorethananyparticularidea.Workinginthe
1980sinEastGermany,hecoulddeludehimselfthatthestatusquowasdurable
thoughbythenEastGermanstabilitydependeduponWesterneconomies.It
wouldnotoccurtohimthatBrezhnevsbetonenergyexportsandforeign
interventionwasamistakeonceinpower,Putinwouldrepeatit.Thevalueofa
barrelofcrudeoil(intodaysdollars)whentheUSSRinvadedAfghanistanin
1979waspeakingat$101whentheUSSRself-destructedin1991itwas$34.
WhenthatRussianBUKconvoyarrivedinDonetskinJune2014,thepriceofoil
waspeakingat$112asIwriteitis$39.

EasternEuropeandissidentssuchasPomerantsevsparentsdrewadifferent
lessonfromthewreckageof1968:theimportanceoftruthasthefoundationofa
lifeindignityatermthatUkrainiansappliedtotheirrevolutionin
2014.10Schlgel,achildoftheWesternEuropeanstudentmovementsof1968,
istroubledthatmembersofhisowngenerationpreferstagnationtorevolution.
Hewantstoknowwhythegenerationwhoseownmemoriesaredirectedto
ParisinMayof1968didnotreacttoKiev.Whydidsofewpeoplewhoidentify
withtheleftnotseetheUkrainianrevolutionassuch,andnotcondemnthe
counterrevolutionaryRussianinvasionaccordingly?Partoftheansweristhat
manyintheWestwhoremember1968recallParisandnotPrague,andso
forgetthereactionarymilitarismoftheBrezhnevdoctrine.Schlgelis
fundamentallyconcernedaboutadeep,metaphysicalillness.Hewritesthathis
owngeneration,whichhasknownEuropeinbettertimes,prefersnostalgiato
knowledge.AlifelongstudentofRussia,hesawhisownjourneytoUkraineas
anhourofverificationandself-verification.

TherewasnoOrwelloftheUkrainianrevolution,butreadersofSchlgeland
Pieniekwillgetsomethingliketheeverydaygritandpoliticalinsight
ofHomagetoCatalonia.Pieniekriskedhislifetoseewhathesaw,asdid
otherbraveandtalentedWesternjournalists.11Alongtheway,perhaps,he
benefitedfromtheseeminglyinnocuousnatureofhiswork.Becauseseparatists
believedthatonlytelevisioncoveragemattered,theykeptaskingwherehis
cameramanwas.Perhapsbecausehewasfilingforprint,Pieniekfoundit
easiertoextendconversationsandmovefromonesideofthelinestotheother.
Afterhespentdayswithaseparatistthetwomenrealizedthattheyhadboth
beenontheMaidanonthesameday,theonebeatingandtheothergetting
beaten.ItsayssomethingaboutPieniekstactthathekepttherelationship
going.Pieniektakesnostandsandstrikesnoposes,butmodestlyexemplifies
theolddissidentidealofseekingaftersmalltruths,atrisktooneself,inaworld
ofbiglies.

Withsimilarhumility,PomerantsevpresentshisRussianfriendsassimilartohis
Westernfriends.Theirworldisjustaturnofthekaleidoscopeaway.Sincethe
publicationofhisbook,PomerantsevhasnotedtheaffinityofTrumps
propagandawiththeRussianmodel.ThefragilityofRussiaspresentregimeis
littleconsolation,sinceitsmethodsofrulecouldworkintheWesthere,says
Pomerantsev,isgoingtobethere.Ifthesinofintellectualsinthetwentieth
centurywastoproposeutopianvisions,thatofthetwenty-firstistodenyall
possibilityofchange.Schlgelfearsanewtrahisondesclercs,anabandonment
ofthesearchfortruththat,saysPomerantsev,bringsthebottomlessskepticism
thatmakespoliticalactionseempointless.Wecannotgiveup,Schlgel
concludes,onthedifferencebetweenfactandfiction.Somethingsaretrue,
andsomethingsarepossible.

1. 1
ForalegalaccountingoftheseeventsseeThomasD.Grant,Aggression
AgainstUkraine:Territory,Responsibility,andInternational
Law(PalgraveMacmillan,2015).
2. 2
AsSerhyYekelchyknotes:Ukrainianvolunteersandconscriptsare
moreoftenthannotthemselvesspeakingRussian,meaningthattheyare
fightingforacivicratherthananethnicconceptofUkrainianidentity.
SeeTheConflictinUkraine:WhatEverybodyNeedsto
Know(OxfordUniversityPress,2015),p.18.
3. 3
Onprewarloyalties,seeGrigorePop-ElechesandGraemeRobertson,
DoCrimeansActuallyWanttoJoinRussia?,TheWashingtonPost,
March6,2014.
 4. 4
InFebruary2014Ukrainianauthoritiesproposedtherepealofalawthat
allowedRussiantobedeclaredaregionallanguage.Theydidnotinfact
repealit.The(nearlyuniversal)useofRussianintheDonbaswasnot
affectedeitherbythepassageofthelaworthediscussionofitsrepeal.

5. 5
InMay2014Ukrainehelddemocraticpresidentialelections,legitimizing
theneworder.PutinhasnowadmittedthedirectRussianmilitaryrolein
bothCrimeaandintheDonbas.AthisDecember17,2015,press
conferencehesaid:Weneversaidtherewerenotpeopletherewho
carriedoutcertaintasksincludinginthemilitarysphere.TheRussian
militaryjournalistArkadyBabchenkocharacterizedsuchcircumlocutions
asinfantilismraisedtotherankofstatepolicy.
6. 6
BothRussianandUkrainianofficialshaveclaimed,falsely,nottopossess
therelevantweapons.Threemajorreportsallowastraightforward
reconstructionoftheevent:thatoftheDutchSafetyBoard,releasedon
October13,2015,andtheopen-sourceseriesofinvestigationscarriedout
bytheinvestigativejournalismwebsitesBellingcatandCorrect!v.
Whereasthefirstfocusesonthedestructionoftheairplane,thelattertwo
describethemovementsoftheRussianBUK.InDecember
2015BellingcatsubmittedtoDutchprosecutorsalistofRussiansoldiers
believedtohavepersonalknowledgeofthecircumstancesoftheshooting
downofMH17.
7. 7
LevadaCenter,reportofJuly27,2015.
8. 8
Inthe2014parliamentaryelections,whichtookplaceunderthepressure
ofwar,neitherofthetworight-wingpartiesclearedthe5percent
thresholdforparticipation(RightSectorreceived1.8percentand
Svoboda4.7percentofthepopularvote).
9. 9
SeeAndriyPortnov,HowEasternUkraineWasLost,Open
Democracy,January14,2016.
10. 10
SeeKieranWilliams,TheRussianView(s)ofthePrague
Spring,JournalofColdWarStudies,Vol.14,No.2(Spring2012).
11. 11
Traditionalprintreportingprovidedthehumanizingcountertotheeasier
tropesofpropaganda.SeeTimJudah,InWartime:Storiesfrom
Ukraine(London:AllenLane,2015).
 From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 05/16/201610:02:38AM
To: DavidKramer<david.j.kramer@asu.edu>
Subject: Bort'sNotes:CarnegieconferenceonRussia'sUncertainTrajectory

N.B.remarkswereofftherecordpleasedonotforwardorotherwisedistribute:)

CarnegieconferenceonRussia'sUncertainTrajectory

WhereisRussiaheadedandwhataretheimplicationsforUSpolicy?

AndrewWeisssayswithregardtoRussiathateconomicandpoliticalsystemstendtoadjustto"newnormals."Atthesametime,
wecan'tevenmakeassumptionsaboutourown,US,policies,e.g.Trump.

Weissenumeratesthefactorswewouldnothaveforeseenjustovertwoyearsago.Wewouldn'thaveforeseenPutin'spopularity
ashighasitiswouldn'thaveexpectedRussiainSyriawouldn'thaveexpectedoilpricessolow.

Ourkeyquestions:
-HowwillthepoliticalsystemadapttoDumaelections?
-Howwilleconomyadapttoaneweconomicsuper-cycle?
-HowwillthebreakdownintrustwiththeWestshapesecurityenvironment?
-HowwillWesternpolicyadapttoareturntopre-MaydanenvironmentinKyiv?

DanRusselloftheUS-RussiaBusinessCouncil,introducingthefirstpanel,offerssixpoints.
-Russia'sgrowthmodelpredatesthecrisis.Growthhasbeendroppingsince2011.
-Theeconomyhasadjustedtotwinshocksofsanctionsandlowoilpricesbetterthanexpected.Theflexibleexchangeratehas
beeneffective.
-Theimpactofsanctionswassignificant,buttheoilpricecollapsewasthemaindriverofthefall.
-Russia'srecoverywillbelong.It'sclosetobottomingout.Modestgrowthwillresumenextyear.Returntofourpercentgrowth,
however,isunlikely.
-Theelephantintheroomisthelackofcomprehensivestructuralreform.Suchreformsunlikelyuntilafter2018elections.No
secretaboutwhatneedstobedone.Noshortageofknowledgeaboutwhattodo.Theproblemislackofpoliticalwill.
-Withcrisiscomesopportunity.Theweakrubleisanopportunityforvalueaddedexports,forinstance.Retoolingofindustryis
unlikelybutpossible.Theeconomicadvisorypanelthatwasrecentlycreatedisanopportunity.

MikhailDmitriyevof"NewEconomicGrowth"saysRussia'sGDPslowdownhasbeentheworstoftheBRICSexceptforBrazil's.
Duringthecurrentcrisiscapitaloutflowofabout$170billionhasbeentwiceasbadasinthelastcrisis,butwasmanaged
effectivelybyCentralBank.GDPdeclinethistimecomparedtolasttimehasnotbeenasbad.Themajordriverforthiswasthat
thepopulationtookthebruntoftherecession,asopposedtocorporations.Corporationsfaredokduringthiscrisis,whereas
publicconsumptionandrealwagesfellsharply.Thiswasmadepossibleinparttothehighpoliticalsupportthegovernmenthas
had.
Thecrisishasimpactedthepoorestpartsofsociety,thenumberofpeoplescrapingbyhasincreased.Atthesametime,thevery
richhaveincreasedtoo(albeitfromalowbase,from1%to4%).
Importsubstitutionhasn'tprompteddevelopmentofsectorsinwhichRussiawasn'talreadyeffective.
Potentialdamagefromthebankingcrisiswascontained.TheCBRsqueezedliquidityenoughtokeepinflationdown.Their
approachwasclassicorthodoxandwassupportedbyPutinhimself.They'veavoidedalaxmonetarypolicy.
Russia'spublicdebtisthesmallestamonglargecountries.
Growthforecastsdon'tgoabovetwopercentuntil2022.
Thekeyquestionremainsunanswered:willRussiaaddressreformsbeforeitgetsstuckinthemiddleincometrap?Don'tassumeit
can'tbedone--Russiaiscapableofeffectiveadministration.ThehugeleapinRussia'sperformanceintheEaseofDoingBusiness
rankingsshowsthatRussiacanimplementneededmeasureswhenitwantsto.Itcanadministerpolicies.Russia'staxadministration
forinstanceisratedhigherthanthatoftheUS.Evenrealjudiciaryreformisbeingseriouslydiscussed.
Thepoliticalsystemistheissue,accordingtoDmitriyev.Duringthiscrisis,thetraditionallystrongcorrelationbetweensupportfor
Putinandsentimentabouttheeconomyhasbeenbroken.PoliticalsupportforPutinremainshigh,whereasthesenseofeconomic
crisishasbecomedeep.
Erosionofpoliticalsupportisgrowingfromthebottomup,assupportforlocalgovernmentshasreachednewlows,andsupport
forthegovernmentfalls.TheonlystronganchorisPutin'sowncharismaandpersonality.Thegeneraldeclineinconfidencehasn't
translatedintoprotests,whichis"amazing,"Dmitriyevsays.Thelevelsofprotestsentiment,forinstance,arefarlowerthanthey
werein2010.Thisisaparadoxicalsituation.Thisisacomplexsituation.

ClayBerry(ChiefEconomistforEurope,InstituteofInternationalFinance)!givescredittoRussia'stightfiscalpolicyin2015for
helpingthecountryweathertheadjustment.Agreesthattheconsumerhasbornethebruntofthiscrisis.Therearealotoftheories
aboutwhypeoplehavehandledthiscrisisascalmlyastheyhave.Thecountersanctionshavehurtconsumersdisproportionately,
butthegovernmenthasn'teaseduponthatapproach.BerryremainsskepticalaboutRussia'sabilitytoattractinvestment.Efforts
sofarhavebeenunsuccessfulandunconvincing.
Lookingat2016,sheexpectsareturntogrowthinthesecondhalfoftheyear,continuingintonextyear,butgettingnevermuch
abovetwopercentatthebest.Thatrepresentsprotractedstagnation.
Berryisnotoptimisticabouttheprospectforstructuralreform.Theproblemislackofpoliticalwill.
FiscalquestionsincreasebynextyearasRussiarunsthroughitsreserves.Willtheyintroduceanewfiscalrule?They'vecutalot,
that'showthey'vebeenmanaging.They'rerunningoutofroomtocutfurther.Post-2018somethingsbecomeinevitable,suchas
raisingthepensionage.Theflattaxratemayhavetobeincreased.
Russiaisnotincrisis,it'snotimploding,butit'sfacinglong-termstagnation.It'snotclearhowitcanescapethemiddleincometrap.
Andyetpeopleareadjusting,they'rehunkeringdown,they'renotprotesting.

DanRussellasksDmitriyevaboutthestructuralchangehesuggestsmightbeunderway.DmitriyevsaysCustomsreformisabright
spot.Russians'consumptionpatternsareshiftingtohousing,offeringopportunities.Butthereisnoguaranteeoffollow-throughon
anything,onanyreform,suchasjudicialreform.Thesethingsarehardeverywhere,asinChina.Butsometimesevensome
marginalimprovementshelpalot.

AndrewWeissasksaboutcronycapitalismandmonopolization.Aretheseonthetable?

DmitriyevrespondsthatcorruptioninstateprocurementisoneareainwhichRussiahasmadeprogress,judgingbyatleast
anecdotalevidence.Somesuchtaboosaretherebybeinglifted.

Dmitriyevsaysthethingaboutthepoliticalsystemisthatitdeliversonwhatit'ssupposedto,anditisbroadlysupportedacross
almostallgroups.Thisreinforcestheleadership'sbeliefthatitdoesn'tneedtofocusonpoliticalreform,onlyoneconomicreform.

Onequestioner(SteveBegun)notesthatanotherbrightnoteisthatdespiteeverything,foreigninvestorshavebeentreatedfairly
duringthecrisis.Yetmanysignsarenegative,suchasintheautoindustry,whichisafflictedwithovercapacity.Mostdisturbingly,
Begunsays,Russiaisbeingpushedoutoftheglobalsupplychain.ItplaysnoroleandnoonelooksatRussiaasaplayerinthe
globalsupplychain.What'shappeningtothemiddleclass?

Dmitrieyvbringsupthefactthattheeconomyisadjustingandrepeatsthattheconstructionsectoristakinguptheslackwithbig
prospectsforgrowth.Alotofthisisnaturaladjustment.Themortgagemarketcangrow.InvestmentratesinRussiahavegrownby
1.5percentperyear.ThisisnotanunusualrateforacountrylikeRussiaandRussiaisnotanoutlier.

Questionaboutwhatincentivesthereareforstructuralreform?Academicallyyoucanunderstandwhythey'reimportant,but
practicallyit'snotclearwhyanyoneintheleadershipwouldsupportthem.

Dmitriyevsaysthatthedemandforreformwillhavetobepushedfrombelow.Heagreesthattheelitesdon'tneedorwantreform.
Thisisthebigquestion.Willpatiencerunout?It'sanopenquestion.

AndyKuchinssayseconomicreformscan'tbedivorcedfrompoliticalreforms.

GeneRumersaysheisatalosstosquarethe(relativelysanguine)picturepaintedbythepanelistsandthepicturethatemerges
fromthemediaofamuchmorediresituation.

ClayBerryreturnstothepositivepoliciespursuedbytheCBR,suchasshuttingdownbadbanks.Buttheneteffectofthat"good"
policyisthatmoremoneyisnowflowingtogovernmentownedbanks.Thisunderscorestheoversizeroleofthegovernment.
Dmitriyevsaysthattheconcentrationofrentsintheoilandgassectordistortsthepictureaboutthesizeofthestate.Therearein
factmuchmoredynamicconsumersectorstofocusonthattelladifferentstory.Dmitriyevremainsconcernedaboutthebanking
sector.
Dmitriyevsaysmasslayoffsremainabigconcern,ataboo.Thelackoflaborreformisaproblem.Butatthesametimethe
resultinglackofunemploymenthelpsthesystemadjust.

WayneMerrysaysthereareveryfewsectorsonwhichoutsideinvestorscanmakemoney.

HarleyBalzerasksabouttheproblemsfacingSMEsandthefactsomanyareshuttingdown.Dmitriyevacknowledgesthatthe
widespreadfailuresofSMEsisabigproblem.

Inthesecondsession,DeputyAssistantSecretaryofStateforRussiaandEurasiaKathyKavalecisaskedaboutthe
communicationbetweenRussiaandtheUS,andsaysthatalotofcommunicationistakingplaceinvariouschannels.She
acknowledgesthatthe"feel-good"channelshavebeencutback."Wehavelessinsightintowhat'shappeninginsidetheKremlin."
ThedecisionsonSyriaandontheNationalGuard,forinstance,weresurprises.EventheMFAseemedsurprisedbySyria.Obama
andKerryhavebeenengagingPutin.Thereissomecapacitytocooperateonsomeissues.

Therelationshipisbecomingmoremilitarized,perAndrew.Howtoavoidthingsgettingworse?Ismachinerybeingbuiltupon
eithersidetoavoidaccidentalclashes?

ThedeconflictionmechanisminSyriaisworkingprettywell,KathyKavalecsays.TheIncidentatSeamechanismisworking,more
orless."ButwehavetohopetheRussiansdon'tconfusebrazennessforbravery."

Question:AretheRussianslookingpastthisadministration?
Answer:Theadministrationisdoingeverythingitcan,butit'ssomethingwecan'tcontroliftheRussiansarelookingpastObama.
RussiastandsoutamongtheG20astheonlyonefavoringTrumpforpresident.

AngelaStentasksifthenextadministrationshoulddoarealreviewofRussiapolicy?
Probably,Kavalecsaystherearealotofquestionsthatneedtobelookedat,suchasontheinformationfront,themilitary
reassurancefront,onthepeople-to-peoplefront.

AlekseyArbatovasks:Isthestrategicarmscontrolregimecollapsing?Whydidn'ttheStateDepartmentacceptRussia'sofferto
discussthe1972conventiononincidentsatseaandthesafedistanceslimitslaidouttherein?

TomGrahamasks:howwouldyousuccinctlydescribetheRussiachallenge,andhowwouldyoudefinetheshorttermandlong
termgoals?

KavalecsaysthelongtermgoalisstillRussia'sintegrationwithWesterninstitutionsandit'snotunachievable.This(Putin)regimeis
notforever,afterall.
TheshorttermgoalistobepreparedforassertiveandaggressivemovesaffectingourAlliesandcounteringinformation
aggression.Butwestillneedtokeeplinesofcommunicationopen.Therearesomethingswecouldaccomplish.Maybewecan
extendNewSTARTnow,forinstance.Syriamayturnouttobeaplusfortherelationship.

BillCourtneyasksabouttheMinskaccordsandhowit'sthefirsttimetheEuropeanshavebeeninthelead.Aretheymore
confident?

KavalecsayswearelettingtheNormandy-4countriestakethelead.UkraineisaEuropeancountryanditsissuesshouldbe
managedbytheEuropeans.
AtthesametimeRussia'sactionsaredrivingothercountriestouniteandtomoveclosertotheUS.

HowwillyoucharacterizeRussiainyour(hypothetical)transitionpaper,GeneRumerasks.Therearetwocontradictorynarratives,
oneofRussiaonthemarchoneofRussianindeclineandisolated.YetyousayweneedtostanduptoRussiaandcounterits
propaganda-why?

Kavalecsaysthereisaconnectionbetweentheirbrazenbehaviorandtheirunderlyingweaknesses.Shepointsoutthatwenow
describethesystemasauthoritarian,withoutqualifiers(suchas"soft").
AndrewWeisssaysPutinsimplybelievesthattheUSwantsregimechange.Howdowemanagethat?Howdowekeepa
relationshipwithhimwhenhebelieveswewanttooverthrowhim?
KavalecsaysweneedtojustdothebestwecanandrealizethatPutinisn'tforever,eventuallyhewillgo.

SurensayswehavebeenveryreactivetoRussia'sactions,howdowestartbeingproactive?

Arethereanyareasinwhichpeopletopeoplecontactscontinue?Notreally.

WhydoweseeRussiaasparticularlyimportant?

InthethirdsessiononDomesticscenarios,DenisVolkovoftheLevadaCenterspeaksabouttrendsinpublicopinionandhighlights
thehighpost-CrimearatingsforPutin,butnotesthatthenumbersdon'thavethesamemeaningastheywouldinacompetitive
politicalsystem.Otherindicatorsareheadingdowntopre-Crimealevels.Itwillbehardforthesystemtocontinueasusual.The
protestmoodisnothighandpeopledon'tlinktheirownsituationstothoseofotherprotestgroups--horizontallinksamongprotest
groupsaren'ttakingshape.

ThegovernmentcantrytocomeupwithsomegrandnewforeignpolicyinitiativebutnothingislikelytobeaseffectiveasCrimea
was.SyriawasnotaseffectiveasCrimeaandonlygainedbyassociationwiththeaftermathofCrimea.Theseadventuresmay
propuplegitimacybutnotadvanceit.

TomGrahamofKissingerAssociatessaysherecentlyre-lookedattheNIEfrom1987onthenear-termfutureoftheSovietUnion
andthefourscenariosintheNIEdidn'tcapturewhatwasgoingtohappen.Wecan'tforeseethingsuntiltheyhappen,thenwe
explainthemafterthefact.Someofthatanalysiscontinuestoday,westraight-lineeventsandsomethinkofPutinasforever.
Lookingatcurrenttrendswecanseehowtheregimecancontinueandisplanningforcontingencies,assomeearlierspeakershave
noted.Theregimehastoolstoensureitssurvival,theoppositionisweakanddivided.
ItissafetoassumethatPutinwillrunandwinin2018,butwhatwouldhavetohappentomakethatchange?
Putinhastogivetheelitesguarantees,hehastoprotectthem.Heneedstoprotectthemfromforeignenemies.Thisisoneof
Putin'smainjobs.
Grahamnotesthatbetweenthefalloflastyearandthisspring,somethingchanged.Before,peoplethoughtthingswouldbegetting
better.Now,theyactasifit'sthenewnormal.ThischallengesPutin'sabilitytomanageresourcesamongtheelite.
ThesplitsamongtheelitesthatwehearaboutincludethatofKadyrovandtheintelligenceservices,butthereareothers.The
stand-upoftheNationalGuardbroughtsomeofthoseforward.ThismakesitharderforPutintomanagethecompetition.
Managingthemasses?It'shardtoenvisionalargemassprotest.Buttherecouldbelocalizedprotests.Onlyasmallnumberof
suchincidentscouldcauseregionalleaderstoquestionMoscow'scontrol.
Reforeignpolicy,TomGrahamdoesn'tthinkforeignpolicyhasbeenadventurous,norhasitbeenundertakenjusttopropup
Putin'spopularity.They'renotlookingforthenextadventuretokeephispopularityabove80%.ButtheneteffectisthatRussiais
overextended.
IfIwereontheGeneralStaff,Grahamsays,Iwouldbelookingatresourcesandchallengesandlongtermcommitments.There
aregrowingsecuritychallengeseverywherethathavetobetakenintoaccount.
Afewchallengesthatstartsmallandgetoutofcontrolcouldraisequestionsamongtheelite."Icanenvisionascenariothatgetsus
toaRussiawithoutPutin."ButaRussiawithoutPutindoesn'tmeanthesystemwillchangenecessarily.Itcouldleadtosome
changesinpriority,butwon'tchangethewayRussiaapproachesthings.Russiawon'tbesomethingwecanintegrateintothe
Westerncommunity.WewillneedanewgrandstrategyforRussia.

AngelaStentasksifRussiacouldn'tchangeovertimeunderanewleader?EvenifanewleaderstartsoutfollowinginPutin's
footsteps,anewleadercouldleadtoqualitativechange.
TomGrahamsaysRussiahasn'tchangedin300years.Andallthechallengesthatithasnowwillbethere.Itwillhavetochange,
butademocraticbreakthroughisunlikely.

Question:Howdoyouseeanelite(anti-Putin)coalitioncomingtogether?
Answer:Itwillhavetocomefromwithinthesiloviki.That'showithappenedunderGorbachev.Weshouldn'tfocusonjustthetop
layerofelite,weneedtothinkaboutthelowerlevelstoo.Thismaynotbeaclassiccoupscenario.Therecouldbeaguaranteed
arrangementbehindthescenesthatgetsPutintostepdown.Thesepeoplemaylookatthemathanddecidetheyneedtochange
thesystemorthecountrywillfallfartherbehind.
TheRussiansmaynotbe"dissatisfied"becausetheyrememberhowbadthingswere,WayneMerryobserves.Maybethisisthe
bestRussiaweget,maybeit'snotsobadforus.Democracyoftenproducesbadoutcomes.

Grahamsaysthereareelementsofaharderrightthatcouldcometopower,fromamongthosewhothinkPutinistoosoft.Russia
couldendupbeingmorechallengingfortheUS.

AquestionforVolkov:HowmuchofthecountryisLevadaabletocover?Doweknowenoughaboutwhat'sgoingoninsidethe
republics,includingprotests?
Volkovsaysregionalelitesarestillrelativelyhappy.

AndrewWeissasksaboutwhatthenext"lurch"mightbe.Henotesthattheideological"winners"sofarhavebeenthefarright.
Supportforthatapproachmaybecoalescing,andseemsmorelikelythatthanaconsensusforeconomicgrowth.

TomGrahamsaysyesandno.Someindividualsseefarrightnationalismastherightapproach.ButthesecurityservicesinRussia
tendtobemoreprofessionalthanthat,they'renotwildrisk-takers.TheyhadplannedforCrimeaandknewwhattheyweredoing.
Forcewasusedjudiciously.TheywereneverplanningtogotoKyiv.Theyhaven'toverreacted,eventoourmaneuvers.There'sno
realisticreasontothinkthey'regoingintotheBaltics.Theycanbenasty,becauseit'slowrisktobenasty.Butit'sunlikelythatwe
willfaceawildlyaggressiveforeignpolicy.AndthepeoplehereintheUSwhowarnaboutanaggressiveRussiaareprobably
lobbyingformorefunding.

VolkovsaystheCrimeaoperationwasn'tjustforpopularity.Butoncedone,itwasplayeddeliberatelyformaximumpopularity.
Theyevensolditinawaytheyknewwouldgivethemmaximumratings.

Question:WillPutinknowwhenit'stimetogo?Whocouldreplacehim?
Grahamanswersthattheelitescanfindareplacementandtheywouldrallyaroundwhoeveritwas,justastheydidin1999.
It'sclearPutinisconcernedaboutathreatfromwithin,butifithappensthenhewillnothaveseenitcoming.

Q-Kazakhstan-couldachangeofpowertherethreatenRussia?

Q-Whatwerepeopleprotestingin2011andhasthatprotestsentimentgoneaway?Whereisthatprotestnow?Howdoesit
affectPutin'sthinkingaboutDumaelectionsthisyear?

A-Volkovsaystheregimeregainedtheinitiativeandmomentumandmarginalizedoppositionsentiment.
TheKremlinwaseffectiveinhowtheyaddressedtheprotest.Theymarginalizedpoliticalprotestersasnon-Russian.TheKremlin
ismoreconcernedaboutsocioeconomicprotestsandaboutthoseprotestslinkingupwithpoliticalprotests.

AndyKuchinssaysweshouldn'tkeepsayingthatwecan'tpredictwhatPutin'sgoingtodo,whatwehaveisafailureof
imagination.ShouldwehavebeensurprisedbyCrimea,bySyria?Couldn'twehaveforeseenbothoftheseevents?

GeneRumerasksVolkov:IsitcorrecttoconcludefromyourpresentationthatthedriversofdomesticpoliticsareTV,and
Crimea?Thesearethethingsproppingupthesystem?

HarleyBalzersaysthefactthatYeltsinhandedoverpowerpeacefullyshowsthatsomethingshavechangedinRussia,300yearsof
historytothecontrary.

VolkovsaysRussiansknowtheyarelivingbetterthaneverbefore,traditionally.Thisisthemaindriverofdomesticpolitics
(stability).Nowthatthistrendhasreversed,itremainstobeseenhowlongpeoplewillcontinuetosupporttheregime.People
believePutinwhenhesays"twoyears"forthecrisis.Theystilltrusthimaboutthis.Aslongasthissupportcontinuestheeliteswill
notmoveagainstPutin.

GrahamsaysPutinprobablydoesseetheneedtoretrenchandistryingtowrapupoutsideactivity,andfocusontheeconomy.
ThefearintheKremlinaboutaperestroika-2ismisplaced,RussiaisnottheSovietUnion.
And,inresponsetoBalzer,GrahamsaysthechangeofpowerfromYeltsinwasinfactprobablyasoftpalacecoup.

ThefourthsessionisRussianforeignpolicyandRussiaintheworld.DavidHoffmanintroducesAlekseyArbatovoftheCarnegie
MoscowCenter.ArbatovtalksaboutrelationsbetweenRussiaandtheUS.From2011-13Russiawasbeingreactive.Putin
resentedhowtheUStreatedhim,afterhe'dcometopowerthinkinghecouldimproverelations.OutsideofRussia,wherePutin
wasbeingauthoritarian,hewaspro-integration.HemovedforwardonmanyfrontswiththeUnitedStates,includingarmscontrol,
hisresponse9/11.Inresponsehegotrejection.Helearnedthatbymakingconcessionshewouldnotgainrespectorequal
treatment.Russiawouldgetapatonthebackandnothingmore.Sowhenhecamebackin2012hedecidedthatthewaytoget
respectwastochallengetheWest,eventhoughhehadnoplanforconfrontation.WhenUkrainehappeneditwasaturningpoint.It
wasaninternalaswellasanexternalchallenge.LosingUkrainewouldhavehugerepercussionsforPutin.AndifUkraine
succeeded,itwouldhavehugeimplicationsforRussia.ItwouldchallengethewholePutinregime.Themassprotestsof2011were
thefirstreminderofthethreattoRussia.InCrimea,hetookrevengeontheWest.Itwasadefensivepolicybyoffense,defense
throughoffense.ForawhiletherewasathoughtthattheDonbaswouldbeanexamplefortherestofUkraine,Putininvoked
"Novorossiya."Butitdidn'tworkandsoPutindroppedit.
WhatdrivesRussianpolicy,domesticorexternalconsiderations?Foralongtimeitwasinternallydriven.ThenRussiansgrewto
expectgreatpowerrespect.AndPutintriedtodeliver.
Withtheeconomicsituationdeteriorating,PutingavetheRussianpeopleCrimeainreturn.TheeventsintheDonbaswerenota
clearwinforPutin,theissuewasverydivisiveinsideRussia.Marriagesendedasaresultofdivisionsoverwhattodoabout
Ukraine.
SyriaprovidedPutinthechancetoshowRussiawasnotaregionalpower,asObamacalledit.Russiadidsomethingthatonlythe
UScoulddo.Theactionwasdonepurelyforprestige,fightingjihadistshadnothingtodowithit."Thatisabsurdofcourse,"
Arbatovsays.PutinwasfightingcolorrevolutionsinSyria.Syriastartedbysurpriseanditendedbysurprise,that'showPutinlikes
todothings.NowtheoperationinSyriawillcontinueatalowerprofilebecausethewarinSyriahasserveditspurpose.
Moreovertheeconomyhasforcedcutbacksinmilitaryexpenditures.The2020programwasdesignedforaGDPratethatwas
doublewhatitactuallyhasbeen.
Arbatovsaysthisisnotthetimeforanotherforeignadventure.BUTatthesametimePutincannotaffordtobeseenasweak,to
beseenasinretreat.Thatisatotaltaboo.HeisdeescalatingtensionwiththeWest.Buttherewillbenodeescalationifit'sseenas
aretreat,asasignofweakness."Thisissoimportantitbearsrepeating,"Arbatovinsists.
ThecurtailmentoffightinginSyria,theconcessiononarmedobserversintheDonbas,aresignsofPutindeescalating.Theseare
majorstepstowardreconciliation.
IsRussiabecomingisolationist?Itisgoingthatwaynotbyitsownchoice.Russiadoesnotwanttobeisolationist.Russiaisanxious
foranendtoisolation.Russiacelebrates,forinstance,movesagainstthesanctionsinFrance'sNationalAssembly.Self-relianceis
nowthesloganoftheday.Butnotisolation.
GettingclosertotheWestendangersRussia'ssystem.ButRussianeedsinvestmentfromtheWest.ThisisRussia'sbigdilemma.
ThedilemmawithChinaisthatRussiaisvastlyinferior.GettingclosertoChinaopensRussiatounfairtreatmentbyChina.
Sixty-fourpercentofthepopulationseestheUSasanenemy...Butmoreimportantly,Arbatovargues,thereare25percentwho
STILLseetheUSasafriend.Thatnumberisamazing,consideringeverything.
Continuityandchangeinrelations:RussianolongerwilltolerateWesterninterferenceinitssphereofinfluence.Russiaunderstands
equalityasmeaningthatitsinterestswillbetakenintoaccount.Nomoredoublestandards:iftheUSthinksitcandosomething,
Russiathinksitcanaswell.
RussiawilldelinkitsdomesticpoliciesfromitsrelationswiththeWest.
PRisofgreaterimportancetoPutinthantoanyotherRussianleader.
Doingthingsbysurpriseisaprimedriver.Thisisafeatureofpost-Crimeapolicy.
Foreignpolicyisbeingdonebypeoplewithlowintellectualcapacity,peoplelikePatrushevandBortnikov.Decisionsarebeing
madeinisolation,evenastheworldgetsmorecomplex.
Russiawillnotshyawayfromanaction-reactiondynamic,evenifthereactionhurtsRussia'sinterests.Actionswilltakenwithout
regardtowhattheUScounterreactionwillbe,includingtheNATObuildup--areactionthatRussiahadnotthoughtthrough.
Russiathinksithasmadeitspoint.Itisreadytocooperateaslongasitdoesn'tlooklikeretreat.
TherearepotentialsolutionstotheDonbas,Arbatovsays,abovealltheofferforarmedOSCEobserversontheborder.
AslongasPutinistheretherewillbenomajorpoliticaloreconomicreforms,andtherewillbenoresetwiththeWest.Butthe
relationshipcanbemanaged.

HoffmanraisesconcernaboutPutin'sasymmetrictactics.Werewewrongaboutthat?
ArbatovsaysPutinwillbeasymmetricwhereheneedstobe,andhewon'tbewherehedoesn'tneedtobe.

GeneRumersaystheEuroAtlanticsecurityarrangementthatcouldhavebeenexpectedbyRussiahasgoneaway.TheWestis
seenasathreattoRussia'ssovereignty,astestifiedbyForeignMinisterLavrov'srecentarticle.NonethelessRussiaisnotan
expansionistpower.TheyhaveazoneofprivilegedintereststhattheywilldefendagainstencroachmentsbytheWest,includingby
militarymeans.Thesixcountriesthatareinthe"greyzone"arethethreeSouthCaucasusstatesandBelarus,Ukraine,and
Moldova.Thesearethebattlegroundstates.USpositionsonUkrainearepushingintothistightspaceandinvitingunpredictable
outcomes.

Russianpolicyismadefromthetopdown.

AdvicetothenewUSadministration?Rumer'sadvicewouldbe:WeneedtoreengagewithPutin.

AdvicetoPutin?ArbatovsayshisadvicewouldbetostateclearlythatRussiaisnothreattotheBaltics.
Russiashouldmakeassurancesaboutnon-useofnuclearweapons.Russiaisreadyforweaponsreductionstoo.

TomGrahamsaysweshouldthinkaboutRussiaasanAsianpower,notjustaEuropeanproblem.RussiaisimportanttoAsia.Can
weengagewithRussiaonAsia,whereweandtheymighthavemoreincommon.

Rumersaysthereareareaswherewecouldcooperatebutwebothwouldneedtoovercomeourmutualworldviews.Inprinciple
wecancollaboratewhenit'snecessary.Butonlyintimesofdeepcrisis.

ArbatovsaysRussianeedsinvestmentintheFarEast..Bothsidesneedtostopmisspendingresourcesonarmsagainsteachother,
needtostartfindingareasofcooperation,whetherit'sintheArcticorelsewhere.

RussiansseeTrumpasunpredictablebuttheyseeClintonaspredictableinabadway,perArbatov.Putincouldhaveagood
relationwithTrump,butasRussianshaveseenwithErdoganthatthatisanunpredictablequality.
LiberalsaredividedoverTrump.ButpeopleareworriedaboutClinton,thatshewouldfeelitnecessarytotryextrahardtobe
toughonRussia.
Oneofthebigproblemsisthelackofcontactbetweenthemilitaries,andthedisrespecttheyhaveforeachother.
Rearmscontrol,ArbatovsaysPutintreatsarmscontrolasapawn,asawaytogetconcessionsinotherareas.It'snotimportant
untoitself.ArmscontrolprogresscouldreturnunderanewUSadministration.

ArbatovsaysthatifRussiaisignoredunderanewAdministration,itwilltakestepstomakeitselfknown.
RumersaysitwouldbeamistaketojusttrytowaitPutinout.

CouldSyriabecomeanareaofcooperation?IfUkraineisresolved,Syriacouldbecomeanareaofrealmilitarycooperation,
Arbatovsays.ArbatovsaysifhewereinchargehewouldsparenoefforttotrytoresolveUkraine,itisthemostimportantRussia-
Westconflictinyears,andneedstoberesolved.
JustpullingbacktheseparatistswouldnotworkforRussia,becauseUkrainewouldjustmovebackin.Soapeacekeepingforce
alongwithRussianunitswouldbethewaytogo,Arbatovsays,tokeepthesidesseparatedbutreassurethesides.Itcouldbea
waytogetsanctionsremoved.ItwouldbeanunprecedentedconcessiononPutin'sparttoallowanarmedoutsidecontingentin
thepost-Sovietspace.

Rehybridwarfareandtools,Russiacanusethemtoitsadvantage.It'sthefutureofwarfare.
ArbatovsaystheUSneedstounderstanditsownfaultinthefactthatRussia-USrelationsarebad.ButRussia,typically,hasnow
swungfromoneextremeofbehaviortoanother,fromoverlypassivetooverlybellicose."Weneednewrulesofbehavior."

ReKarabakh,ArbatovsaysRussiaisbetweenthetwosides.Itisneutral.Turkeyplayedaroleinthelatestconflict.Russiaismore
engagedinTransnistria,andthesituationismoredangerousthere,dependingonUSpolicy.

ThecorridorbetweentheLOCsfromMinsk1andMinsk2shouldbewherethearmedUN/OSCEobserversarelocated,
Arbatovsays.Fromthere,theyshouldmonitortheRussian-Ukrainianborder,alongthewholeborder.Thiswouldremove
questionsaboutRussia'srole.

SentfrommyiPad
 From: DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>
Senttime: 05/16/201602:58:30PM
To: Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: RE:Bort'sNotes:CarnegieconferenceonRussia'sUncertainTrajectory

YourcommandofEnglishisunwieldy

From:Bob[mailto:robertotto25@gmail.com]
Sent:Monday,May16,20165:56PM
To:DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>
Subject:Re:Bort'sNotes:CarnegieconferenceonRussia'sUncertainTrajectory

Idon'tknowthatmany.............

SentfrommyiPad

OnMay16,2016,at5:52PM,DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>wrote:

Youreamanoffewwords!

From:Bob[mailto:robertotto25@gmail.com]
Sent:Monday,May16,20165:52PM
To:DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>
Subject:Re:Bort'sNotes:CarnegieconferenceonRussia'sUncertainTrajectory

SentfrommyiPad

OnMay16,2016,at5:04PM,DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>wrote:

Interesting,thanksforsharing.Afewreactions

HowwillyoucharacterizeRussiainyour(hypothetical)transitionpaper,GeneRumerasks.Thereare
twocontradictorynarratives,oneofRussiaonthemarchoneofRussianindeclineandisolated.Yet
yousayweneedtostanduptoRussiaandcounteritspropaganda-why?
nAsifthosearetheonlytwowaystodescribethesituation.

Reforeignpolicy,TomGrahamdoesn'tthinkforeignpolicyhasbeenadventurous,
nThenwhatisitconservative?Especiallyifheacknowledgesthattheyreoverextended?

TomGrahamsaysRussiahasn'tchangedin300years.
nThatsaratherstrongstatement.

TheRussiansmaynotbe"dissatisfied"becausetheyrememberhowbadthingswere,WayneMerry
observes.MaybethisisthebestRussiaweget,maybeit'snotsobadforus.Democracyoften
producesbadoutcomes.
nLetssee,theyveinvadedseveralneighbors,arethreateninguseofnukes,killingtheirown
critics,journalists,messingaroundinSyriaandmakingmattersworsethereyeah,thisisgreat.
Oh,andletsconfuseelectionswithdemocracy,whilewereatit.Whatanidiot.

TomGrahamsaysthesecurityservicesinRussiatendtobemoreprofessionalthanthat,they'renot
wildrisk-takers.TheyhadplannedforCrimeaandknewwhattheyweredoing.Forcewasused
judiciously.TheywereneverplanningtogotoKyiv.Theyhaven'toverreacted,eventoourmaneuvers.
There'snorealisticreasontothinkthey'regoingintotheBaltics.Theycanbenasty,becauseit'slowrisk
tobenasty.Butit'sunlikelythatwewillfaceawildlyaggressiveforeignpolicy.Andthepeopleherein
theUSwhowarnaboutanaggressiveRussiaareprobablylobbyingformorefunding.
nIassumehemeansthemilitaryinthelastline.Idratherbesafethansorry.Andlowrisk?Is
Syrialowrisk?AndDonbasdidntturnouttoowelleither.

AndyKuchinssaysweshouldn'tkeepsayingthatwecan'tpredictwhatPutin'sgoingtodo,whatwe
haveisafailureofimagination.ShouldwehavebeensurprisedbyCrimea,bySyria?Couldn'twehave
foreseenbothoftheseevents?
nIdontquiterecallAndysbrilliantpredictionsoftheseevents.

HarleyBalzersaysthefactthatYeltsinhandedoverpowerpeacefullyshowsthatsomethingshave
changedinRussia,300yearsofhistorytothecontrary.
nGorbydeservesmorecreditthanYeltsin,Idargue.

GeneRumersaystheEuroAtlanticsecurityarrangementthatcouldhavebeenexpectedbyRussiahas
goneaway.TheWestisseenasathreattoRussia'ssovereignty,astestifiedbyForeignMinister
Lavrov'srecentarticle.NonethelessRussiaisnotanexpansionistpower.Theyhaveazoneofprivileged
intereststhattheywilldefendagainstencroachmentsbytheWest,includingbymilitarymeans.Thesix
countriesthatareinthe"greyzone"arethethreeSouthCaucasusstatesandBelarus,Ukraine,and
Moldova.Thesearethebattlegroundstates.USpositionsonUkrainearepushingintothistightspace
andinvitingunpredictableoutcomes.
nAndheworkedfortheNIC???!!!Oh,letsjustreengagePutinforwhatpurpose???

TomsRussia-Asiashtickisgettingold.

From:RobertOtto[mailto:robertotto25@gmail.com]
Sent:Monday,May16,20161:03PM
To:DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>
Subject:Bort'sNotes:CarnegieconferenceonRussia'sUncertainTrajectory

N.B.remarkswereofftherecordpleasedonotforwardorotherwisedistribute:)

CarnegieconferenceonRussia'sUncertainTrajectory

WhereisRussiaheadedandwhataretheimplicationsforUSpolicy?

AndrewWeisssayswithregardtoRussiathateconomicandpoliticalsystemstendtoadjustto"new
normals."Atthesametime,wecan'tevenmakeassumptionsaboutourown,US,policies,e.g.Trump.

Weissenumeratesthefactorswewouldnothaveforeseenjustovertwoyearsago.Wewouldn'thave
foreseenPutin'spopularityashighasitiswouldn'thaveexpectedRussiainSyriawouldn'thave
expectedoilpricessolow.

Ourkeyquestions:
-HowwillthepoliticalsystemadapttoDumaelections?
-Howwilleconomyadapttoaneweconomicsuper-cycle?
-HowwillthebreakdownintrustwiththeWestshapesecurityenvironment?
-HowwillWesternpolicyadapttoareturntopre-MaydanenvironmentinKyiv?
DanRusselloftheUS-RussiaBusinessCouncil,introducingthefirstpanel,offerssixpoints.
-Russia'sgrowthmodelpredatesthecrisis.Growthhasbeendroppingsince2011.
-Theeconomyhasadjustedtotwinshocksofsanctionsandlowoilpricesbetterthanexpected.The
flexibleexchangeratehasbeeneffective.
-Theimpactofsanctionswassignificant,buttheoilpricecollapsewasthemaindriverofthefall.
-Russia'srecoverywillbelong.It'sclosetobottomingout.Modestgrowthwillresumenextyear.
Returntofourpercentgrowth,however,isunlikely.
-Theelephantintheroomisthelackofcomprehensivestructuralreform.Suchreformsunlikelyuntil
after2018elections.Nosecretaboutwhatneedstobedone.Noshortageofknowledgeaboutwhatto
do.Theproblemislackofpoliticalwill.
-Withcrisiscomesopportunity.Theweakrubleisanopportunityforvalueaddedexports,forinstance.
Retoolingofindustryisunlikelybutpossible.Theeconomicadvisorypanelthatwasrecentlycreatedis
anopportunity.

MikhailDmitriyevof"NewEconomicGrowth"saysRussia'sGDPslowdownhasbeentheworstofthe
BRICSexceptforBrazil's.Duringthecurrentcrisiscapitaloutflowofabout$170billionhasbeentwice
asbadasinthelastcrisis,butwasmanagedeffectivelybyCentralBank.GDPdeclinethistime
comparedtolasttimehasnotbeenasbad.Themajordriverforthiswasthatthepopulationtookthe
bruntoftherecession,asopposedtocorporations.Corporationsfaredokduringthiscrisis,whereas
publicconsumptionandrealwagesfellsharply.Thiswasmadepossibleinparttothehighpolitical
supportthegovernmenthashad.
Thecrisishasimpactedthepoorestpartsofsociety,thenumberofpeoplescrapingbyhasincreased.At
thesametime,theveryrichhaveincreasedtoo(albeitfromalowbase,from1%to4%).
Importsubstitutionhasn'tprompteddevelopmentofsectorsinwhichRussiawasn'talreadyeffective.
Potentialdamagefromthebankingcrisiswascontained.TheCBRsqueezedliquidityenoughtokeep
inflationdown.TheirapproachwasclassicorthodoxandwassupportedbyPutinhimself.They've
avoidedalaxmonetarypolicy.
Russia'spublicdebtisthesmallestamonglargecountries.
Growthforecastsdon'tgoabovetwopercentuntil2022.
Thekeyquestionremainsunanswered:willRussiaaddressreformsbeforeitgetsstuckinthemiddle
incometrap?Don'tassumeitcan'tbedone--Russiaiscapableofeffectiveadministration.Thehuge
leapinRussia'sperformanceintheEaseofDoingBusinessrankingsshowsthatRussiacanimplement
neededmeasureswhenitwantsto.Itcanadministerpolicies.Russia'staxadministrationforinstanceis
ratedhigherthanthatoftheUS.Evenrealjudiciaryreformisbeingseriouslydiscussed.
Thepoliticalsystemistheissue,accordingtoDmitriyev.Duringthiscrisis,thetraditionallystrong
correlationbetweensupportforPutinandsentimentabouttheeconomyhasbeenbroken.Political
supportforPutinremainshigh,whereasthesenseofeconomiccrisishasbecomedeep.
Erosionofpoliticalsupportisgrowingfromthebottomup,assupportforlocalgovernmentshas
reachednewlows,andsupportforthegovernmentfalls.TheonlystronganchorisPutin'sowncharisma
andpersonality.Thegeneraldeclineinconfidencehasn'ttranslatedintoprotests,whichis"amazing,"
Dmitriyevsays.Thelevelsofprotestsentiment,forinstance,arefarlowerthantheywerein2010.This
isaparadoxicalsituation.Thisisacomplexsituation.

ClayBerry(ChiefEconomistforEurope,InstituteofInternationalFinance)!givescredittoRussia'stight
fiscalpolicyin2015forhelpingthecountryweathertheadjustment.Agreesthattheconsumerhas
bornethebruntofthiscrisis.Therearealotoftheoriesaboutwhypeoplehavehandledthiscrisisas
calmlyastheyhave.Thecountersanctionshavehurtconsumersdisproportionately,butthegovernment
hasn'teaseduponthatapproach.BerryremainsskepticalaboutRussia'sabilitytoattractinvestment.
Effortssofarhavebeenunsuccessfulandunconvincing.
Lookingat2016,sheexpectsareturntogrowthinthesecondhalfoftheyear,continuingintonextyear,
butgettingnevermuchabovetwopercentatthebest.Thatrepresentsprotractedstagnation.
Berryisnotoptimisticabouttheprospectforstructuralreform.Theproblemislackofpoliticalwill.
FiscalquestionsincreasebynextyearasRussiarunsthroughitsreserves.Willtheyintroduceanew
fiscalrule?They'vecutalot,that'showthey'vebeenmanaging.They'rerunningoutofroomtocut
further.Post-2018somethingsbecomeinevitable,suchasraisingthepensionage.Theflattaxratemay
havetobeincreased.
Russiaisnotincrisis,it'snotimploding,butit'sfacinglong-termstagnation.It'snotclearhowitcan
escapethemiddleincometrap.Andyetpeopleareadjusting,they'rehunkeringdown,they'renot
protesting.

DanRussellasksDmitriyevaboutthestructuralchangehesuggestsmightbeunderway.Dmitriyevsays
Customsreformisabrightspot.Russians'consumptionpatternsareshiftingtohousing,offering
opportunities.Butthereisnoguaranteeoffollow-throughonanything,onanyreform,suchasjudicial
reform.Thesethingsarehardeverywhere,asinChina.Butsometimesevensomemarginal
improvementshelpalot.

AndrewWeissasksaboutcronycapitalismandmonopolization.Aretheseonthetable?

DmitriyevrespondsthatcorruptioninstateprocurementisoneareainwhichRussiahasmadeprogress,
judgingbyatleastanecdotalevidence.Somesuchtaboosaretherebybeinglifted.

Dmitriyevsaysthethingaboutthepoliticalsystemisthatitdeliversonwhatit'ssupposedto,anditis
broadlysupportedacrossalmostallgroups.Thisreinforcestheleadership'sbeliefthatitdoesn'tneedto
focusonpoliticalreform,onlyoneconomicreform.

Onequestioner(SteveBegun)notesthatanotherbrightnoteisthatdespiteeverything,foreigninvestors
havebeentreatedfairlyduringthecrisis.Yetmanysignsarenegative,suchasintheautoindustry,which
isafflictedwithovercapacity.Mostdisturbingly,Begunsays,Russiaisbeingpushedoutoftheglobal
supplychain.ItplaysnoroleandnoonelooksatRussiaasaplayerintheglobalsupplychain.What's
happeningtothemiddleclass?

Dmitrieyvbringsupthefactthattheeconomyisadjustingandrepeatsthattheconstructionsectoris
takinguptheslackwithbigprospectsforgrowth.Alotofthisisnaturaladjustment.Themortgage
marketcangrow.InvestmentratesinRussiahavegrownby1.5percentperyear.Thisisnotanunusual
rateforacountrylikeRussiaandRussiaisnotanoutlier.

Questionaboutwhatincentivesthereareforstructuralreform?Academicallyyoucanunderstandwhy
they'reimportant,butpracticallyit'snotclearwhyanyoneintheleadershipwouldsupportthem.

Dmitriyevsaysthatthedemandforreformwillhavetobepushedfrombelow.Heagreesthattheelites
don'tneedorwantreform.Thisisthebigquestion.Willpatiencerunout?It'sanopenquestion.

AndyKuchinssayseconomicreformscan'tbedivorcedfrompoliticalreforms.

GeneRumersaysheisatalosstosquarethe(relativelysanguine)picturepaintedbythepanelistsand
thepicturethatemergesfromthemediaofamuchmorediresituation.

ClayBerryreturnstothepositivepoliciespursuedbytheCBR,suchasshuttingdownbadbanks.But
theneteffectofthat"good"policyisthatmoremoneyisnowflowingtogovernmentownedbanks.This
underscorestheoversizeroleofthegovernment.

Dmitriyevsaysthattheconcentrationofrentsintheoilandgassectordistortsthepictureaboutthesize
ofthestate.Thereareinfactmuchmoredynamicconsumersectorstofocusonthattelladifferent
story.Dmitriyevremainsconcernedaboutthebankingsector.
Dmitriyevsaysmasslayoffsremainabigconcern,ataboo.Thelackoflaborreformisaproblem.But
atthesametimetheresultinglackofunemploymenthelpsthesystemadjust.

WayneMerrysaysthereareveryfewsectorsonwhichoutsideinvestorscanmakemoney.

HarleyBalzerasksabouttheproblemsfacingSMEsandthefactsomanyareshuttingdown.Dmitriyev
acknowledgesthatthewidespreadfailuresofSMEsisabigproblem.
Inthesecondsession,DeputyAssistantSecretaryofStateforRussiaandEurasiaKathyKavalecis
askedaboutthecommunicationbetweenRussiaandtheUS,andsaysthatalotofcommunicationis
takingplaceinvariouschannels.Sheacknowledgesthatthe"feel-good"channelshavebeencutback.
"Wehavelessinsightintowhat'shappeninginsidetheKremlin."ThedecisionsonSyriaandonthe
NationalGuard,forinstance,weresurprises.EventheMFAseemedsurprisedbySyria.Obamaand
KerryhavebeenengagingPutin.Thereissomecapacitytocooperateonsomeissues.

Therelationshipisbecomingmoremilitarized,perAndrew.Howtoavoidthingsgettingworse?Is
machinerybeingbuiltuponeithersidetoavoidaccidentalclashes?

ThedeconflictionmechanisminSyriaisworkingprettywell,KathyKavalecsays.TheIncidentatSea
mechanismisworking,moreorless."ButwehavetohopetheRussiansdon'tconfusebrazennessfor
bravery."

Question:AretheRussianslookingpastthisadministration?
Answer:Theadministrationisdoingeverythingitcan,butit'ssomethingwecan'tcontroliftheRussians
arelookingpastObama.RussiastandsoutamongtheG20astheonlyonefavoringTrumpfor
president.

AngelaStentasksifthenextadministrationshoulddoarealreviewofRussiapolicy?
Probably,Kavalecsaystherearealotofquestionsthatneedtobelookedat,suchasonthe
informationfront,themilitaryreassurancefront,onthepeople-to-peoplefront.

AlekseyArbatovasks:Isthestrategicarmscontrolregimecollapsing?Whydidn'ttheStateDepartment
acceptRussia'soffertodiscussthe1972conventiononincidentsatseaandthesafedistanceslimitslaid
outtherein?

TomGrahamasks:howwouldyousuccinctlydescribetheRussiachallenge,andhowwouldyoudefine
theshorttermandlongtermgoals?

KavalecsaysthelongtermgoalisstillRussia'sintegrationwithWesterninstitutionsandit'snot
unachievable.This(Putin)regimeisnotforever,afterall.
TheshorttermgoalistobepreparedforassertiveandaggressivemovesaffectingourAlliesand
counteringinformationaggression.Butwestillneedtokeeplinesofcommunicationopen.Thereare
somethingswecouldaccomplish.MaybewecanextendNewSTARTnow,forinstance.Syriamay
turnouttobeaplusfortherelationship.

BillCourtneyasksabouttheMinskaccordsandhowit'sthefirsttimetheEuropeanshavebeeninthe
lead.Aretheymoreconfident?

KavalecsayswearelettingtheNormandy-4countriestakethelead.UkraineisaEuropeancountry
anditsissuesshouldbemanagedbytheEuropeans.
AtthesametimeRussia'sactionsaredrivingothercountriestouniteandtomoveclosertotheUS.

HowwillyoucharacterizeRussiainyour(hypothetical)transitionpaper,GeneRumerasks.Thereare
twocontradictorynarratives,oneofRussiaonthemarchoneofRussianindeclineandisolated.Yet
yousayweneedtostanduptoRussiaandcounteritspropaganda-why?

Kavalecsaysthereisaconnectionbetweentheirbrazenbehaviorandtheirunderlyingweaknesses.She
pointsoutthatwenowdescribethesystemasauthoritarian,withoutqualifiers(suchas"soft").

AndrewWeisssaysPutinsimplybelievesthattheUSwantsregimechange.Howdowemanagethat?
Howdowekeeparelationshipwithhimwhenhebelieveswewanttooverthrowhim?
KavalecsaysweneedtojustdothebestwecanandrealizethatPutinisn'tforever,eventuallyhewill
go.
SurensayswehavebeenveryreactivetoRussia'sactions,howdowestartbeingproactive?

Arethereanyareasinwhichpeopletopeoplecontactscontinue?Notreally.

WhydoweseeRussiaasparticularlyimportant?

InthethirdsessiononDomesticscenarios,DenisVolkovoftheLevadaCenterspeaksabouttrendsin
publicopinionandhighlightsthehighpost-CrimearatingsforPutin,butnotesthatthenumbersdon't
havethesamemeaningastheywouldinacompetitivepoliticalsystem.Otherindicatorsareheading
downtopre-Crimealevels.Itwillbehardforthesystemtocontinueasusual.Theprotestmoodisnot
highandpeopledon'tlinktheirownsituationstothoseofotherprotestgroups--horizontallinksamong
protestgroupsaren'ttakingshape.

Thegovernmentcantrytocomeupwithsomegrandnewforeignpolicyinitiativebutnothingislikelyto
beaseffectiveasCrimeawas.SyriawasnotaseffectiveasCrimeaandonlygainedbyassociationwith
theaftermathofCrimea.Theseadventuresmaypropuplegitimacybutnotadvanceit.

TomGrahamofKissingerAssociatessaysherecentlyre-lookedattheNIEfrom1987onthenear-
termfutureoftheSovietUnionandthefourscenariosintheNIEdidn'tcapturewhatwasgoingto
happen.Wecan'tforeseethingsuntiltheyhappen,thenweexplainthemafterthefact.Someofthat
analysiscontinuestoday,westraight-lineeventsandsomethinkofPutinasforever.Lookingatcurrent
trendswecanseehowtheregimecancontinueandisplanningforcontingencies,assomeearlier
speakershavenoted.Theregimehastoolstoensureitssurvival,theoppositionisweakanddivided.
ItissafetoassumethatPutinwillrunandwinin2018,butwhatwouldhavetohappentomakethat
change?
Putinhastogivetheelitesguarantees,hehastoprotectthem.Heneedstoprotectthemfromforeign
enemies.ThisisoneofPutin'smainjobs.
Grahamnotesthatbetweenthefalloflastyearandthisspring,somethingchanged.Before,people
thoughtthingswouldbegettingbetter.Now,theyactasifit'sthenewnormal.ThischallengesPutin's
abilitytomanageresourcesamongtheelite.
ThesplitsamongtheelitesthatwehearaboutincludethatofKadyrovandtheintelligenceservices,but
thereareothers.Thestand-upoftheNationalGuardbroughtsomeofthoseforward.Thismakesit
harderforPutintomanagethecompetition.
Managingthemasses?It'shardtoenvisionalargemassprotest.Buttherecouldbelocalizedprotests.
OnlyasmallnumberofsuchincidentscouldcauseregionalleaderstoquestionMoscow'scontrol.
Reforeignpolicy,TomGrahamdoesn'tthinkforeignpolicyhasbeenadventurous,norhasitbeen
undertakenjusttopropupPutin'spopularity.They'renotlookingforthenextadventuretokeephis
popularityabove80%.ButtheneteffectisthatRussiaisoverextended.
IfIwereontheGeneralStaff,Grahamsays,Iwouldbelookingatresourcesandchallengesandlong
termcommitments.Therearegrowingsecuritychallengeseverywherethathavetobetakeninto
account.
Afewchallengesthatstartsmallandgetoutofcontrolcouldraisequestionsamongtheelite."Ican
envisionascenariothatgetsustoaRussiawithoutPutin."ButaRussiawithoutPutindoesn'tmeanthe
systemwillchangenecessarily.Itcouldleadtosomechangesinpriority,butwon'tchangetheway
Russiaapproachesthings.Russiawon'tbesomethingwecanintegrateintotheWesterncommunity.We
willneedanewgrandstrategyforRussia.

AngelaStentasksifRussiacouldn'tchangeovertimeunderanewleader?Evenifanewleaderstarts
outfollowinginPutin'sfootsteps,anewleadercouldleadtoqualitativechange.
TomGrahamsaysRussiahasn'tchangedin300years.Andallthechallengesthatithasnowwillbe
there.Itwillhavetochange,butademocraticbreakthroughisunlikely.

Question:Howdoyouseeanelite(anti-Putin)coalitioncomingtogether?
Answer:Itwillhavetocomefromwithinthesiloviki.That'showithappenedunderGorbachev.We
shouldn'tfocusonjustthetoplayerofelite,weneedtothinkaboutthelowerlevelstoo.Thismaynot
beaclassiccoupscenario.TherecouldbeaguaranteedarrangementbehindthescenesthatgetsPutin
tostepdown.Thesepeoplemaylookatthemathanddecidetheyneedtochangethesystemorthe
countrywillfallfartherbehind.

TheRussiansmaynotbe"dissatisfied"becausetheyrememberhowbadthingswere,WayneMerry
observes.MaybethisisthebestRussiaweget,maybeit'snotsobadforus.Democracyoften
producesbadoutcomes.

Grahamsaysthereareelementsofaharderrightthatcouldcometopower,fromamongthosewho
thinkPutinistoosoft.RussiacouldendupbeingmorechallengingfortheUS.

AquestionforVolkov:HowmuchofthecountryisLevadaabletocover?Doweknowenoughabout
what'sgoingoninsidetherepublics,includingprotests?
Volkovsaysregionalelitesarestillrelativelyhappy.

AndrewWeissasksaboutwhatthenext"lurch"mightbe.Henotesthattheideological"winners"sofar
havebeenthefarright.Supportforthatapproachmaybecoalescing,andseemsmorelikelythatthana
consensusforeconomicgrowth.

TomGrahamsaysyesandno.Someindividualsseefarrightnationalismastherightapproach.Butthe
securityservicesinRussiatendtobemoreprofessionalthanthat,they'renotwildrisk-takers.Theyhad
plannedforCrimeaandknewwhattheyweredoing.Forcewasusedjudiciously.Theywerenever
planningtogotoKyiv.Theyhaven'toverreacted,eventoourmaneuvers.There'snorealisticreasonto
thinkthey'regoingintotheBaltics.Theycanbenasty,becauseit'slowrisktobenasty.Butit'sunlikely
thatwewillfaceawildlyaggressiveforeignpolicy.AndthepeoplehereintheUSwhowarnaboutan
aggressiveRussiaareprobablylobbyingformorefunding.

VolkovsaystheCrimeaoperationwasn'tjustforpopularity.Butoncedone,itwasplayeddeliberately
formaximumpopularity.Theyevensolditinawaytheyknewwouldgivethemmaximumratings.

Question:WillPutinknowwhenit'stimetogo?Whocouldreplacehim?
Grahamanswersthattheelitescanfindareplacementandtheywouldrallyaroundwhoeveritwas,just
astheydidin1999.
It'sclearPutinisconcernedaboutathreatfromwithin,butifithappensthenhewillnothaveseenit
coming.

Q-Kazakhstan-couldachangeofpowertherethreatenRussia?

Q-Whatwerepeopleprotestingin2011andhasthatprotestsentimentgoneaway?Whereisthat
protestnow?HowdoesitaffectPutin'sthinkingaboutDumaelectionsthisyear?

A-Volkovsaystheregimeregainedtheinitiativeandmomentumandmarginalizedoppositionsentiment.
TheKremlinwaseffectiveinhowtheyaddressedtheprotest.Theymarginalizedpoliticalprotestersas
non-Russian.TheKremlinismoreconcernedaboutsocioeconomicprotestsandaboutthoseprotests
linkingupwithpoliticalprotests.

AndyKuchinssaysweshouldn'tkeepsayingthatwecan'tpredictwhatPutin'sgoingtodo,whatwe
haveisafailureofimagination.ShouldwehavebeensurprisedbyCrimea,bySyria?Couldn'twehave
foreseenbothoftheseevents?

GeneRumerasksVolkov:Isitcorrecttoconcludefromyourpresentationthatthedriversofdomestic
politicsareTV,andCrimea?Thesearethethingsproppingupthesystem?

HarleyBalzersaysthefactthatYeltsinhandedoverpowerpeacefullyshowsthatsomethingshave
changedinRussia,300yearsofhistorytothecontrary.

VolkovsaysRussiansknowtheyarelivingbetterthaneverbefore,traditionally.Thisisthemaindriver
ofdomesticpolitics(stability).Nowthatthistrendhasreversed,itremainstobeseenhowlongpeople
willcontinuetosupporttheregime.PeoplebelievePutinwhenhesays"twoyears"forthecrisis.They
stilltrusthimaboutthis.AslongasthissupportcontinuestheeliteswillnotmoveagainstPutin.

GrahamsaysPutinprobablydoesseetheneedtoretrenchandistryingtowrapupoutsideactivity,and
focusontheeconomy.ThefearintheKremlinaboutaperestroika-2ismisplaced,Russiaisnotthe
SovietUnion.
And,inresponsetoBalzer,GrahamsaysthechangeofpowerfromYeltsinwasinfactprobablyasoft
palacecoup.

ThefourthsessionisRussianforeignpolicyandRussiaintheworld.DavidHoffmanintroducesAleksey
ArbatovoftheCarnegieMoscowCenter.ArbatovtalksaboutrelationsbetweenRussiaandtheUS.
From2011-13Russiawasbeingreactive.PutinresentedhowtheUStreatedhim,afterhe'dcometo
powerthinkinghecouldimproverelations.OutsideofRussia,wherePutinwasbeingauthoritarian,he
waspro-integration.HemovedforwardonmanyfrontswiththeUnitedStates,includingarmscontrol,
hisresponse9/11.Inresponsehegotrejection.Helearnedthatbymakingconcessionshewouldnot
gainrespectorequaltreatment.Russiawouldgetapatonthebackandnothingmore.Sowhenhe
camebackin2012hedecidedthatthewaytogetrespectwastochallengetheWest,eventhoughhe
hadnoplanforconfrontation.WhenUkrainehappeneditwasaturningpoint.Itwasaninternalaswell
asanexternalchallenge.LosingUkrainewouldhavehugerepercussionsforPutin.AndifUkraine
succeeded,itwouldhavehugeimplicationsforRussia.ItwouldchallengethewholePutinregime.The
massprotestsof2011werethefirstreminderofthethreattoRussia.InCrimea,hetookrevengeonthe
West.Itwasadefensivepolicybyoffense,defensethroughoffense.Forawhiletherewasathought
thattheDonbaswouldbeanexamplefortherestofUkraine,Putininvoked"Novorossiya."Butitdidn't
workandsoPutindroppedit.
WhatdrivesRussianpolicy,domesticorexternalconsiderations?Foralongtimeitwasinternally
driven.ThenRussiansgrewtoexpectgreatpowerrespect.AndPutintriedtodeliver.
Withtheeconomicsituationdeteriorating,PutingavetheRussianpeopleCrimeainreturn.Theeventsin
theDonbaswerenotaclearwinforPutin,theissuewasverydivisiveinsideRussia.Marriagesendedas
aresultofdivisionsoverwhattodoaboutUkraine.
SyriaprovidedPutinthechancetoshowRussiawasnotaregionalpower,asObamacalledit.Russia
didsomethingthatonlytheUScoulddo.Theactionwasdonepurelyforprestige,fightingjihadistshad
nothingtodowithit."Thatisabsurdofcourse,"Arbatovsays.Putinwasfightingcolorrevolutionsin
Syria.Syriastartedbysurpriseanditendedbysurprise,that'showPutinlikestodothings.Nowthe
operationinSyriawillcontinueatalowerprofilebecausethewarinSyriahasserveditspurpose.
Moreovertheeconomyhasforcedcutbacksinmilitaryexpenditures.The2020programwasdesigned
foraGDPratethatwasdoublewhatitactuallyhasbeen.
Arbatovsaysthisisnotthetimeforanotherforeignadventure.BUTatthesametimePutincannot
affordtobeseenasweak,tobeseenasinretreat.Thatisatotaltaboo.Heisdeescalatingtensionwith
theWest.Buttherewillbenodeescalationifit'sseenasaretreat,asasignofweakness."Thisisso
importantitbearsrepeating,"Arbatovinsists.
ThecurtailmentoffightinginSyria,theconcessiononarmedobserversintheDonbas,aresignsofPutin
deescalating.Thesearemajorstepstowardreconciliation.
IsRussiabecomingisolationist?Itisgoingthatwaynotbyitsownchoice.Russiadoesnotwanttobe
isolationist.Russiaisanxiousforanendtoisolation.Russiacelebrates,forinstance,movesagainstthe
sanctionsinFrance'sNationalAssembly.Self-relianceisnowthesloganoftheday.Butnotisolation.
GettingclosertotheWestendangersRussia'ssystem.ButRussianeedsinvestmentfromtheWest.This
isRussia'sbigdilemma.
ThedilemmawithChinaisthatRussiaisvastlyinferior.GettingclosertoChinaopensRussiatounfair
treatmentbyChina.
Sixty-fourpercentofthepopulationseestheUSasanenemy...Butmoreimportantly,Arbatovargues,
thereare25percentwhoSTILLseetheUSasafriend.Thatnumberisamazing,considering
everything.
Continuityandchangeinrelations:RussianolongerwilltolerateWesterninterferenceinitssphereof
influence.Russiaunderstandsequalityasmeaningthatitsinterestswillbetakenintoaccount.Nomore
doublestandards:iftheUSthinksitcandosomething,Russiathinksitcanaswell.
RussiawilldelinkitsdomesticpoliciesfromitsrelationswiththeWest.
PRisofgreaterimportancetoPutinthantoanyotherRussianleader.
Doingthingsbysurpriseisaprimedriver.Thisisafeatureofpost-Crimeapolicy.
Foreignpolicyisbeingdonebypeoplewithlowintellectualcapacity,peoplelikePatrushevand
Bortnikov.Decisionsarebeingmadeinisolation,evenastheworldgetsmorecomplex.
Russiawillnotshyawayfromanaction-reactiondynamic,evenifthereactionhurtsRussia'sinterests.
ActionswilltakenwithoutregardtowhattheUScounterreactionwillbe,includingtheNATObuildup-
-areactionthatRussiahadnotthoughtthrough.
Russiathinksithasmadeitspoint.Itisreadytocooperateaslongasitdoesn'tlooklikeretreat.
TherearepotentialsolutionstotheDonbas,Arbatovsays,abovealltheofferforarmedOSCE
observersontheborder.
AslongasPutinistheretherewillbenomajorpoliticaloreconomicreforms,andtherewillbenoreset
withtheWest.Buttherelationshipcanbemanaged.

HoffmanraisesconcernaboutPutin'sasymmetrictactics.Werewewrongaboutthat?
ArbatovsaysPutinwillbeasymmetricwhereheneedstobe,andhewon'tbewherehedoesn'tneedto
be.

GeneRumersaystheEuroAtlanticsecurityarrangementthatcouldhavebeenexpectedbyRussiahas
goneaway.TheWestisseenasathreattoRussia'ssovereignty,astestifiedbyForeignMinister
Lavrov'srecentarticle.NonethelessRussiaisnotanexpansionistpower.Theyhaveazoneofprivileged
intereststhattheywilldefendagainstencroachmentsbytheWest,includingbymilitarymeans.Thesix
countriesthatareinthe"greyzone"arethethreeSouthCaucasusstatesandBelarus,Ukraine,and
Moldova.Thesearethebattlegroundstates.USpositionsonUkrainearepushingintothistightspace
andinvitingunpredictableoutcomes.

Russianpolicyismadefromthetopdown.

AdvicetothenewUSadministration?Rumer'sadvicewouldbe:WeneedtoreengagewithPutin.

AdvicetoPutin?ArbatovsayshisadvicewouldbetostateclearlythatRussiaisnothreattotheBaltics.
Russiashouldmakeassurancesaboutnon-useofnuclearweapons.Russiaisreadyforweapons
reductionstoo.

TomGrahamsaysweshouldthinkaboutRussiaasanAsianpower,notjustaEuropeanproblem.
RussiaisimportanttoAsia.CanweengagewithRussiaonAsia,whereweandtheymighthavemorein
common.

Rumersaysthereareareaswherewecouldcooperatebutwebothwouldneedtoovercomeour
mutualworldviews.Inprinciplewecancollaboratewhenit'snecessary.Butonlyintimesofdeepcrisis.

ArbatovsaysRussianeedsinvestmentintheFarEast..Bothsidesneedtostopmisspendingresources
onarmsagainsteachother,needtostartfindingareasofcooperation,whetherit'sintheArcticor
elsewhere.

RussiansseeTrumpasunpredictablebuttheyseeClintonaspredictableinabadway,perArbatov.
PutincouldhaveagoodrelationwithTrump,butasRussianshaveseenwithErdoganthatthatisan
unpredictablequality.
LiberalsaredividedoverTrump.ButpeopleareworriedaboutClinton,thatshewouldfeelitnecessary
totryextrahardtobetoughonRussia.
Oneofthebigproblemsisthelackofcontactbetweenthemilitaries,andthedisrespecttheyhavefor
eachother.
Rearmscontrol,ArbatovsaysPutintreatsarmscontrolasapawn,asawaytogetconcessionsinother
areas.It'snotimportantuntoitself.ArmscontrolprogresscouldreturnunderanewUSadministration.

ArbatovsaysthatifRussiaisignoredunderanewAdministration,itwilltakestepstomakeitself
known.
RumersaysitwouldbeamistaketojusttrytowaitPutinout.

CouldSyriabecomeanareaofcooperation?IfUkraineisresolved,Syriacouldbecomeanareaofreal
militarycooperation,Arbatovsays.Arbatovsaysifhewereinchargehewouldsparenoefforttotryto
resolveUkraine,itisthemostimportantRussia-Westconflictinyears,andneedstoberesolved.
JustpullingbacktheseparatistswouldnotworkforRussia,becauseUkrainewouldjustmovebackin.
SoapeacekeepingforcealongwithRussianunitswouldbethewaytogo,Arbatovsays,tokeepthe
sidesseparatedbutreassurethesides.Itcouldbeawaytogetsanctionsremoved.Itwouldbean
unprecedentedconcessiononPutin'sparttoallowanarmedoutsidecontingentinthepost-Soviet
space.

Rehybridwarfareandtools,Russiacanusethemtoitsadvantage.It'sthefutureofwarfare.
ArbatovsaystheUSneedstounderstanditsownfaultinthefactthatRussia-USrelationsarebad.But
Russia,typically,hasnowswungfromoneextremeofbehaviortoanother,fromoverlypassivetooverly
bellicose."Weneednewrulesofbehavior."

ReKarabakh,ArbatovsaysRussiaisbetweenthetwosides.Itisneutral.Turkeyplayedaroleinthe
latestconflict.RussiaismoreengagedinTransnistria,andthesituationismoredangerousthere,
dependingonUSpolicy.

ThecorridorbetweentheLOCsfromMinsk1andMinsk2shouldbewherethearmedUN/OSCE
observersarelocated,Arbatovsays.Fromthere,theyshouldmonitortheRussian-Ukrainianborder,
alongthewholeborder.ThiswouldremovequestionsaboutRussia'srole.

SentfrommyiPad

 From: DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>
Senttime: 05/16/201602:04:09PM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: RE:Bort'sNotes:CarnegieconferenceonRussia'sUncertainTrajectory

Interesting,thanksforsharing.Afewreactions

HowwillyoucharacterizeRussiainyour(hypothetical)transitionpaper,GeneRumerasks.Therearetwocontradictory
narratives,oneofRussiaonthemarchoneofRussianindeclineandisolated.YetyousayweneedtostanduptoRussiaand
counteritspropaganda-why?
nAsifthosearetheonlytwowaystodescribethesituation.

Reforeignpolicy,TomGrahamdoesn'tthinkforeignpolicyhasbeenadventurous,
nThenwhatisitconservative?Especiallyifheacknowledgesthattheyreoverextended?

TomGrahamsaysRussiahasn'tchangedin300years.
nThatsaratherstrongstatement.

TheRussiansmaynotbe"dissatisfied"becausetheyrememberhowbadthingswere,WayneMerryobserves.Maybethisisthe
bestRussiaweget,maybeit'snotsobadforus.Democracyoftenproducesbadoutcomes.
nLetssee,theyveinvadedseveralneighbors,arethreateninguseofnukes,killingtheirowncritics,journalists,messing
aroundinSyriaandmakingmattersworsethereyeah,thisisgreat.Oh,andletsconfuseelectionswithdemocracy,
whilewereatit.Whatanidiot.

TomGrahamsaysthesecurityservicesinRussiatendtobemoreprofessionalthanthat,they'renotwildrisk-takers.Theyhad
plannedforCrimeaandknewwhattheyweredoing.Forcewasusedjudiciously.TheywereneverplanningtogotoKyiv.They
haven'toverreacted,eventoourmaneuvers.There'snorealisticreasontothinkthey'regoingintotheBaltics.Theycanbenasty,
becauseit'slowrisktobenasty.Butit'sunlikelythatwewillfaceawildlyaggressiveforeignpolicy.AndthepeoplehereintheUS
whowarnaboutanaggressiveRussiaareprobablylobbyingformorefunding.
nIassumehemeansthemilitaryinthelastline.Idratherbesafethansorry.Andlowrisk?IsSyrialowrisk?AndDonbas
didntturnouttoowelleither.

AndyKuchinssaysweshouldn'tkeepsayingthatwecan'tpredictwhatPutin'sgoingtodo,whatwehaveisafailureof
imagination.ShouldwehavebeensurprisedbyCrimea,bySyria?Couldn'twehaveforeseenbothoftheseevents?
nIdontquiterecallAndysbrilliantpredictionsoftheseevents.

HarleyBalzersaysthefactthatYeltsinhandedoverpowerpeacefullyshowsthatsomethingshavechangedinRussia,300years
ofhistorytothecontrary.
nGorbydeservesmorecreditthanYeltsin,Idargue.

GeneRumersaystheEuroAtlanticsecurityarrangementthatcouldhavebeenexpectedbyRussiahasgoneaway.TheWestis
seenasathreattoRussia'ssovereignty,astestifiedbyForeignMinisterLavrov'srecentarticle.NonethelessRussiaisnotan
expansionistpower.TheyhaveazoneofprivilegedintereststhattheywilldefendagainstencroachmentsbytheWest,includingby
militarymeans.Thesixcountriesthatareinthe"greyzone"arethethreeSouthCaucasusstatesandBelarus,Ukraine,and
Moldova.Thesearethebattlegroundstates.USpositionsonUkrainearepushingintothistightspaceandinvitingunpredictable
outcomes.
nAndheworkedfortheNIC???!!!Oh,letsjustreengagePutinforwhatpurpose???

TomsRussia-Asiashtickisgettingold.

From:RobertOtto[mailto:robertotto25@gmail.com]
Sent:Monday,May16,20161:03PM
To:DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>
Subject:Bort'sNotes:CarnegieconferenceonRussia'sUncertainTrajectory

N.B.remarkswereofftherecordpleasedonotforwardorotherwisedistribute:)

CarnegieconferenceonRussia'sUncertainTrajectory

WhereisRussiaheadedandwhataretheimplicationsforUSpolicy?

AndrewWeisssayswithregardtoRussiathateconomicandpoliticalsystemstendtoadjustto"newnormals."Atthesametime,
wecan'tevenmakeassumptionsaboutourown,US,policies,e.g.Trump.

Weissenumeratesthefactorswewouldnothaveforeseenjustovertwoyearsago.Wewouldn'thaveforeseenPutin'spopularity
ashighasitiswouldn'thaveexpectedRussiainSyriawouldn'thaveexpectedoilpricessolow.

Ourkeyquestions:
-HowwillthepoliticalsystemadapttoDumaelections?
-Howwilleconomyadapttoaneweconomicsuper-cycle?
-HowwillthebreakdownintrustwiththeWestshapesecurityenvironment?
-HowwillWesternpolicyadapttoareturntopre-MaydanenvironmentinKyiv?

DanRusselloftheUS-RussiaBusinessCouncil,introducingthefirstpanel,offerssixpoints.
-Russia'sgrowthmodelpredatesthecrisis.Growthhasbeendroppingsince2011.
-Theeconomyhasadjustedtotwinshocksofsanctionsandlowoilpricesbetterthanexpected.Theflexibleexchangeratehas
beeneffective.
-Theimpactofsanctionswassignificant,buttheoilpricecollapsewasthemaindriverofthefall.
-Russia'srecoverywillbelong.It'sclosetobottomingout.Modestgrowthwillresumenextyear.Returntofourpercentgrowth,
however,isunlikely.
-Theelephantintheroomisthelackofcomprehensivestructuralreform.Suchreformsunlikelyuntilafter2018elections.No
secretaboutwhatneedstobedone.Noshortageofknowledgeaboutwhattodo.Theproblemislackofpoliticalwill.
-Withcrisiscomesopportunity.Theweakrubleisanopportunityforvalueaddedexports,forinstance.Retoolingofindustryis
unlikelybutpossible.Theeconomicadvisorypanelthatwasrecentlycreatedisanopportunity.

MikhailDmitriyevof"NewEconomicGrowth"saysRussia'sGDPslowdownhasbeentheworstoftheBRICSexceptforBrazil's.
Duringthecurrentcrisiscapitaloutflowofabout$170billionhasbeentwiceasbadasinthelastcrisis,butwasmanaged
effectivelybyCentralBank.GDPdeclinethistimecomparedtolasttimehasnotbeenasbad.Themajordriverforthiswasthat
thepopulationtookthebruntoftherecession,asopposedtocorporations.Corporationsfaredokduringthiscrisis,whereas
publicconsumptionandrealwagesfellsharply.Thiswasmadepossibleinparttothehighpoliticalsupportthegovernmenthas
had.
Thecrisishasimpactedthepoorestpartsofsociety,thenumberofpeoplescrapingbyhasincreased.Atthesametime,thevery
richhaveincreasedtoo(albeitfromalowbase,from1%to4%).
Importsubstitutionhasn'tprompteddevelopmentofsectorsinwhichRussiawasn'talreadyeffective.
Potentialdamagefromthebankingcrisiswascontained.TheCBRsqueezedliquidityenoughtokeepinflationdown.Their
approachwasclassicorthodoxandwassupportedbyPutinhimself.They'veavoidedalaxmonetarypolicy.
Russia'spublicdebtisthesmallestamonglargecountries.
Growthforecastsdon'tgoabovetwopercentuntil2022.
Thekeyquestionremainsunanswered:willRussiaaddressreformsbeforeitgetsstuckinthemiddleincometrap?Don'tassumeit
can'tbedone--Russiaiscapableofeffectiveadministration.ThehugeleapinRussia'sperformanceintheEaseofDoingBusiness
rankingsshowsthatRussiacanimplementneededmeasureswhenitwantsto.Itcanadministerpolicies.Russia'staxadministration
forinstanceisratedhigherthanthatoftheUS.Evenrealjudiciaryreformisbeingseriouslydiscussed.
Thepoliticalsystemistheissue,accordingtoDmitriyev.Duringthiscrisis,thetraditionallystrongcorrelationbetweensupportfor
Putinandsentimentabouttheeconomyhasbeenbroken.PoliticalsupportforPutinremainshigh,whereasthesenseofeconomic
crisishasbecomedeep.
Erosionofpoliticalsupportisgrowingfromthebottomup,assupportforlocalgovernmentshasreachednewlows,andsupport
forthegovernmentfalls.TheonlystronganchorisPutin'sowncharismaandpersonality.Thegeneraldeclineinconfidencehasn't
translatedintoprotests,whichis"amazing,"Dmitriyevsays.Thelevelsofprotestsentiment,forinstance,arefarlowerthanthey
werein2010.Thisisaparadoxicalsituation.Thisisacomplexsituation.

ClayBerry(ChiefEconomistforEurope,InstituteofInternationalFinance)!givescredittoRussia'stightfiscalpolicyin2015for
helpingthecountryweathertheadjustment.Agreesthattheconsumerhasbornethebruntofthiscrisis.Therearealotoftheories
aboutwhypeoplehavehandledthiscrisisascalmlyastheyhave.Thecountersanctionshavehurtconsumersdisproportionately,
butthegovernmenthasn'teaseduponthatapproach.BerryremainsskepticalaboutRussia'sabilitytoattractinvestment.Efforts
sofarhavebeenunsuccessfulandunconvincing.
Lookingat2016,sheexpectsareturntogrowthinthesecondhalfoftheyear,continuingintonextyear,butgettingnevermuch
abovetwopercentatthebest.Thatrepresentsprotractedstagnation.
Berryisnotoptimisticabouttheprospectforstructuralreform.Theproblemislackofpoliticalwill.
FiscalquestionsincreasebynextyearasRussiarunsthroughitsreserves.Willtheyintroduceanewfiscalrule?They'vecutalot,
that'showthey'vebeenmanaging.They'rerunningoutofroomtocutfurther.Post-2018somethingsbecomeinevitable,suchas
raisingthepensionage.Theflattaxratemayhavetobeincreased.
Russiaisnotincrisis,it'snotimploding,butit'sfacinglong-termstagnation.It'snotclearhowitcanescapethemiddleincometrap.
Andyetpeopleareadjusting,they'rehunkeringdown,they'renotprotesting.

DanRussellasksDmitriyevaboutthestructuralchangehesuggestsmightbeunderway.DmitriyevsaysCustomsreformisabright
spot.Russians'consumptionpatternsareshiftingtohousing,offeringopportunities.Butthereisnoguaranteeoffollow-throughon
anything,onanyreform,suchasjudicialreform.Thesethingsarehardeverywhere,asinChina.Butsometimesevensome
marginalimprovementshelpalot.

AndrewWeissasksaboutcronycapitalismandmonopolization.Aretheseonthetable?

DmitriyevrespondsthatcorruptioninstateprocurementisoneareainwhichRussiahasmadeprogress,judgingbyatleast
anecdotalevidence.Somesuchtaboosaretherebybeinglifted.

Dmitriyevsaysthethingaboutthepoliticalsystemisthatitdeliversonwhatit'ssupposedto,anditisbroadlysupportedacross
almostallgroups.Thisreinforcestheleadership'sbeliefthatitdoesn'tneedtofocusonpoliticalreform,onlyoneconomicreform.

Onequestioner(SteveBegun)notesthatanotherbrightnoteisthatdespiteeverything,foreigninvestorshavebeentreatedfairly
duringthecrisis.Yetmanysignsarenegative,suchasintheautoindustry,whichisafflictedwithovercapacity.Mostdisturbingly,
Begunsays,Russiaisbeingpushedoutoftheglobalsupplychain.ItplaysnoroleandnoonelooksatRussiaasaplayerinthe
globalsupplychain.What'shappeningtothemiddleclass?

Dmitrieyvbringsupthefactthattheeconomyisadjustingandrepeatsthattheconstructionsectoristakinguptheslackwithbig
prospectsforgrowth.Alotofthisisnaturaladjustment.Themortgagemarketcangrow.InvestmentratesinRussiahavegrownby
1.5percentperyear.ThisisnotanunusualrateforacountrylikeRussiaandRussiaisnotanoutlier.

Questionaboutwhatincentivesthereareforstructuralreform?Academicallyyoucanunderstandwhythey'reimportant,but
practicallyit'snotclearwhyanyoneintheleadershipwouldsupportthem.

Dmitriyevsaysthatthedemandforreformwillhavetobepushedfrombelow.Heagreesthattheelitesdon'tneedorwantreform.
Thisisthebigquestion.Willpatiencerunout?It'sanopenquestion.

AndyKuchinssayseconomicreformscan'tbedivorcedfrompoliticalreforms.

GeneRumersaysheisatalosstosquarethe(relativelysanguine)picturepaintedbythepanelistsandthepicturethatemerges
fromthemediaofamuchmorediresituation.

ClayBerryreturnstothepositivepoliciespursuedbytheCBR,suchasshuttingdownbadbanks.Buttheneteffectofthat"good"
policyisthatmoremoneyisnowflowingtogovernmentownedbanks.Thisunderscorestheoversizeroleofthegovernment.

Dmitriyevsaysthattheconcentrationofrentsintheoilandgassectordistortsthepictureaboutthesizeofthestate.Therearein
factmuchmoredynamicconsumersectorstofocusonthattelladifferentstory.Dmitriyevremainsconcernedaboutthebanking
sector.
Dmitriyevsaysmasslayoffsremainabigconcern,ataboo.Thelackoflaborreformisaproblem.Butatthesametimethe
resultinglackofunemploymenthelpsthesystemadjust.

WayneMerrysaysthereareveryfewsectorsonwhichoutsideinvestorscanmakemoney.

HarleyBalzerasksabouttheproblemsfacingSMEsandthefactsomanyareshuttingdown.Dmitriyevacknowledgesthatthe
widespreadfailuresofSMEsisabigproblem.

Inthesecondsession,DeputyAssistantSecretaryofStateforRussiaandEurasiaKathyKavalecisaskedaboutthe
communicationbetweenRussiaandtheUS,andsaysthatalotofcommunicationistakingplaceinvariouschannels.She
acknowledgesthatthe"feel-good"channelshavebeencutback."Wehavelessinsightintowhat'shappeninginsidetheKremlin."
ThedecisionsonSyriaandontheNationalGuard,forinstance,weresurprises.EventheMFAseemedsurprisedbySyria.Obama
andKerryhavebeenengagingPutin.Thereissomecapacitytocooperateonsomeissues.

Therelationshipisbecomingmoremilitarized,perAndrew.Howtoavoidthingsgettingworse?Ismachinerybeingbuiltupon
eithersidetoavoidaccidentalclashes?

ThedeconflictionmechanisminSyriaisworkingprettywell,KathyKavalecsays.TheIncidentatSeamechanismisworking,more
orless."ButwehavetohopetheRussiansdon'tconfusebrazennessforbravery."

Question:AretheRussianslookingpastthisadministration?
Answer:Theadministrationisdoingeverythingitcan,butit'ssomethingwecan'tcontroliftheRussiansarelookingpastObama.
RussiastandsoutamongtheG20astheonlyonefavoringTrumpforpresident.

AngelaStentasksifthenextadministrationshoulddoarealreviewofRussiapolicy?
Probably,Kavalecsaystherearealotofquestionsthatneedtobelookedat,suchasontheinformationfront,themilitary
reassurancefront,onthepeople-to-peoplefront.

AlekseyArbatovasks:Isthestrategicarmscontrolregimecollapsing?Whydidn'ttheStateDepartmentacceptRussia'sofferto
discussthe1972conventiononincidentsatseaandthesafedistanceslimitslaidouttherein?

TomGrahamasks:howwouldyousuccinctlydescribetheRussiachallenge,andhowwouldyoudefinetheshorttermandlong
termgoals?

KavalecsaysthelongtermgoalisstillRussia'sintegrationwithWesterninstitutionsandit'snotunachievable.This(Putin)regimeis
notforever,afterall.
TheshorttermgoalistobepreparedforassertiveandaggressivemovesaffectingourAlliesandcounteringinformation
aggression.Butwestillneedtokeeplinesofcommunicationopen.Therearesomethingswecouldaccomplish.Maybewecan
extendNewSTARTnow,forinstance.Syriamayturnouttobeaplusfortherelationship.

BillCourtneyasksabouttheMinskaccordsandhowit'sthefirsttimetheEuropeanshavebeeninthelead.Aretheymore
confident?

KavalecsayswearelettingtheNormandy-4countriestakethelead.UkraineisaEuropeancountryanditsissuesshouldbe
managedbytheEuropeans.
AtthesametimeRussia'sactionsaredrivingothercountriestouniteandtomoveclosertotheUS.

HowwillyoucharacterizeRussiainyour(hypothetical)transitionpaper,GeneRumerasks.Therearetwocontradictorynarratives,
oneofRussiaonthemarchoneofRussianindeclineandisolated.YetyousayweneedtostanduptoRussiaandcounterits
propaganda-why?

Kavalecsaysthereisaconnectionbetweentheirbrazenbehaviorandtheirunderlyingweaknesses.Shepointsoutthatwenow
describethesystemasauthoritarian,withoutqualifiers(suchas"soft").

AndrewWeisssaysPutinsimplybelievesthattheUSwantsregimechange.Howdowemanagethat?Howdowekeepa
relationshipwithhimwhenhebelieveswewanttooverthrowhim?
KavalecsaysweneedtojustdothebestwecanandrealizethatPutinisn'tforever,eventuallyhewillgo.

SurensayswehavebeenveryreactivetoRussia'sactions,howdowestartbeingproactive?

Arethereanyareasinwhichpeopletopeoplecontactscontinue?Notreally.

WhydoweseeRussiaasparticularlyimportant?

InthethirdsessiononDomesticscenarios,DenisVolkovoftheLevadaCenterspeaksabouttrendsinpublicopinionandhighlights
thehighpost-CrimearatingsforPutin,butnotesthatthenumbersdon'thavethesamemeaningastheywouldinacompetitive
politicalsystem.Otherindicatorsareheadingdowntopre-Crimealevels.Itwillbehardforthesystemtocontinueasusual.The
protestmoodisnothighandpeopledon'tlinktheirownsituationstothoseofotherprotestgroups--horizontallinksamongprotest
groupsaren'ttakingshape.

ThegovernmentcantrytocomeupwithsomegrandnewforeignpolicyinitiativebutnothingislikelytobeaseffectiveasCrimea
was.SyriawasnotaseffectiveasCrimeaandonlygainedbyassociationwiththeaftermathofCrimea.Theseadventuresmay
propuplegitimacybutnotadvanceit.

TomGrahamofKissingerAssociatessaysherecentlyre-lookedattheNIEfrom1987onthenear-termfutureoftheSovietUnion
andthefourscenariosintheNIEdidn'tcapturewhatwasgoingtohappen.Wecan'tforeseethingsuntiltheyhappen,thenwe
explainthemafterthefact.Someofthatanalysiscontinuestoday,westraight-lineeventsandsomethinkofPutinasforever.
Lookingatcurrenttrendswecanseehowtheregimecancontinueandisplanningforcontingencies,assomeearlierspeakershave
noted.Theregimehastoolstoensureitssurvival,theoppositionisweakanddivided.
ItissafetoassumethatPutinwillrunandwinin2018,butwhatwouldhavetohappentomakethatchange?
Putinhastogivetheelitesguarantees,hehastoprotectthem.Heneedstoprotectthemfromforeignenemies.Thisisoneof
Putin'smainjobs.
Grahamnotesthatbetweenthefalloflastyearandthisspring,somethingchanged.Before,peoplethoughtthingswouldbegetting
better.Now,theyactasifit'sthenewnormal.ThischallengesPutin'sabilitytomanageresourcesamongtheelite.
ThesplitsamongtheelitesthatwehearaboutincludethatofKadyrovandtheintelligenceservices,butthereareothers.The
stand-upoftheNationalGuardbroughtsomeofthoseforward.ThismakesitharderforPutintomanagethecompetition.
Managingthemasses?It'shardtoenvisionalargemassprotest.Buttherecouldbelocalizedprotests.Onlyasmallnumberof
suchincidentscouldcauseregionalleaderstoquestionMoscow'scontrol.
Reforeignpolicy,TomGrahamdoesn'tthinkforeignpolicyhasbeenadventurous,norhasitbeenundertakenjusttopropup
Putin'spopularity.They'renotlookingforthenextadventuretokeephispopularityabove80%.ButtheneteffectisthatRussiais
overextended.
IfIwereontheGeneralStaff,Grahamsays,Iwouldbelookingatresourcesandchallengesandlongtermcommitments.There
aregrowingsecuritychallengeseverywherethathavetobetakenintoaccount.
Afewchallengesthatstartsmallandgetoutofcontrolcouldraisequestionsamongtheelite."Icanenvisionascenariothatgetsus
toaRussiawithoutPutin."ButaRussiawithoutPutindoesn'tmeanthesystemwillchangenecessarily.Itcouldleadtosome
changesinpriority,butwon'tchangethewayRussiaapproachesthings.Russiawon'tbesomethingwecanintegrateintothe
Westerncommunity.WewillneedanewgrandstrategyforRussia.

AngelaStentasksifRussiacouldn'tchangeovertimeunderanewleader?EvenifanewleaderstartsoutfollowinginPutin's
footsteps,anewleadercouldleadtoqualitativechange.
TomGrahamsaysRussiahasn'tchangedin300years.Andallthechallengesthatithasnowwillbethere.Itwillhavetochange,
butademocraticbreakthroughisunlikely.

Question:Howdoyouseeanelite(anti-Putin)coalitioncomingtogether?
Answer:Itwillhavetocomefromwithinthesiloviki.That'showithappenedunderGorbachev.Weshouldn'tfocusonjustthetop
layerofelite,weneedtothinkaboutthelowerlevelstoo.Thismaynotbeaclassiccoupscenario.Therecouldbeaguaranteed
arrangementbehindthescenesthatgetsPutintostepdown.Thesepeoplemaylookatthemathanddecidetheyneedtochange
thesystemorthecountrywillfallfartherbehind.

TheRussiansmaynotbe"dissatisfied"becausetheyrememberhowbadthingswere,WayneMerryobserves.Maybethisisthe
bestRussiaweget,maybeit'snotsobadforus.Democracyoftenproducesbadoutcomes.
Grahamsaysthereareelementsofaharderrightthatcouldcometopower,fromamongthosewhothinkPutinistoosoft.Russia
couldendupbeingmorechallengingfortheUS.

AquestionforVolkov:HowmuchofthecountryisLevadaabletocover?Doweknowenoughaboutwhat'sgoingoninsidethe
republics,includingprotests?
Volkovsaysregionalelitesarestillrelativelyhappy.

AndrewWeissasksaboutwhatthenext"lurch"mightbe.Henotesthattheideological"winners"sofarhavebeenthefarright.
Supportforthatapproachmaybecoalescing,andseemsmorelikelythatthanaconsensusforeconomicgrowth.

TomGrahamsaysyesandno.Someindividualsseefarrightnationalismastherightapproach.ButthesecurityservicesinRussia
tendtobemoreprofessionalthanthat,they'renotwildrisk-takers.TheyhadplannedforCrimeaandknewwhattheyweredoing.
Forcewasusedjudiciously.TheywereneverplanningtogotoKyiv.Theyhaven'toverreacted,eventoourmaneuvers.There'sno
realisticreasontothinkthey'regoingintotheBaltics.Theycanbenasty,becauseit'slowrisktobenasty.Butit'sunlikelythatwe
willfaceawildlyaggressiveforeignpolicy.AndthepeoplehereintheUSwhowarnaboutanaggressiveRussiaareprobably
lobbyingformorefunding.

VolkovsaystheCrimeaoperationwasn'tjustforpopularity.Butoncedone,itwasplayeddeliberatelyformaximumpopularity.
Theyevensolditinawaytheyknewwouldgivethemmaximumratings.

Question:WillPutinknowwhenit'stimetogo?Whocouldreplacehim?
Grahamanswersthattheelitescanfindareplacementandtheywouldrallyaroundwhoeveritwas,justastheydidin1999.
It'sclearPutinisconcernedaboutathreatfromwithin,butifithappensthenhewillnothaveseenitcoming.

Q-Kazakhstan-couldachangeofpowertherethreatenRussia?

Q-Whatwerepeopleprotestingin2011andhasthatprotestsentimentgoneaway?Whereisthatprotestnow?Howdoesit
affectPutin'sthinkingaboutDumaelectionsthisyear?

A-Volkovsaystheregimeregainedtheinitiativeandmomentumandmarginalizedoppositionsentiment.
TheKremlinwaseffectiveinhowtheyaddressedtheprotest.Theymarginalizedpoliticalprotestersasnon-Russian.TheKremlin
ismoreconcernedaboutsocioeconomicprotestsandaboutthoseprotestslinkingupwithpoliticalprotests.

AndyKuchinssaysweshouldn'tkeepsayingthatwecan'tpredictwhatPutin'sgoingtodo,whatwehaveisafailureof
imagination.ShouldwehavebeensurprisedbyCrimea,bySyria?Couldn'twehaveforeseenbothoftheseevents?

GeneRumerasksVolkov:IsitcorrecttoconcludefromyourpresentationthatthedriversofdomesticpoliticsareTV,and
Crimea?Thesearethethingsproppingupthesystem?

HarleyBalzersaysthefactthatYeltsinhandedoverpowerpeacefullyshowsthatsomethingshavechangedinRussia,300yearsof
historytothecontrary.

VolkovsaysRussiansknowtheyarelivingbetterthaneverbefore,traditionally.Thisisthemaindriverofdomesticpolitics
(stability).Nowthatthistrendhasreversed,itremainstobeseenhowlongpeoplewillcontinuetosupporttheregime.People
believePutinwhenhesays"twoyears"forthecrisis.Theystilltrusthimaboutthis.Aslongasthissupportcontinuestheeliteswill
notmoveagainstPutin.

GrahamsaysPutinprobablydoesseetheneedtoretrenchandistryingtowrapupoutsideactivity,andfocusontheeconomy.
ThefearintheKremlinaboutaperestroika-2ismisplaced,RussiaisnottheSovietUnion.
And,inresponsetoBalzer,GrahamsaysthechangeofpowerfromYeltsinwasinfactprobablyasoftpalacecoup.

ThefourthsessionisRussianforeignpolicyandRussiaintheworld.DavidHoffmanintroducesAlekseyArbatovoftheCarnegie
MoscowCenter.ArbatovtalksaboutrelationsbetweenRussiaandtheUS.From2011-13Russiawasbeingreactive.Putin
resentedhowtheUStreatedhim,afterhe'dcometopowerthinkinghecouldimproverelations.OutsideofRussia,wherePutin
wasbeingauthoritarian,hewaspro-integration.HemovedforwardonmanyfrontswiththeUnitedStates,includingarmscontrol,
hisresponse9/11.Inresponsehegotrejection.Helearnedthatbymakingconcessionshewouldnotgainrespectorequal
treatment.Russiawouldgetapatonthebackandnothingmore.Sowhenhecamebackin2012hedecidedthatthewaytoget
respectwastochallengetheWest,eventhoughhehadnoplanforconfrontation.WhenUkrainehappeneditwasaturningpoint.It
wasaninternalaswellasanexternalchallenge.LosingUkrainewouldhavehugerepercussionsforPutin.AndifUkraine
succeeded,itwouldhavehugeimplicationsforRussia.ItwouldchallengethewholePutinregime.Themassprotestsof2011were
thefirstreminderofthethreattoRussia.InCrimea,hetookrevengeontheWest.Itwasadefensivepolicybyoffense,defense
throughoffense.ForawhiletherewasathoughtthattheDonbaswouldbeanexamplefortherestofUkraine,Putininvoked
"Novorossiya."Butitdidn'tworkandsoPutindroppedit.
WhatdrivesRussianpolicy,domesticorexternalconsiderations?Foralongtimeitwasinternallydriven.ThenRussiansgrewto
expectgreatpowerrespect.AndPutintriedtodeliver.
Withtheeconomicsituationdeteriorating,PutingavetheRussianpeopleCrimeainreturn.TheeventsintheDonbaswerenota
clearwinforPutin,theissuewasverydivisiveinsideRussia.Marriagesendedasaresultofdivisionsoverwhattodoabout
Ukraine.
SyriaprovidedPutinthechancetoshowRussiawasnotaregionalpower,asObamacalledit.Russiadidsomethingthatonlythe
UScoulddo.Theactionwasdonepurelyforprestige,fightingjihadistshadnothingtodowithit."Thatisabsurdofcourse,"
Arbatovsays.PutinwasfightingcolorrevolutionsinSyria.Syriastartedbysurpriseanditendedbysurprise,that'showPutinlikes
todothings.NowtheoperationinSyriawillcontinueatalowerprofilebecausethewarinSyriahasserveditspurpose.
Moreovertheeconomyhasforcedcutbacksinmilitaryexpenditures.The2020programwasdesignedforaGDPratethatwas
doublewhatitactuallyhasbeen.
Arbatovsaysthisisnotthetimeforanotherforeignadventure.BUTatthesametimePutincannotaffordtobeseenasweak,to
beseenasinretreat.Thatisatotaltaboo.HeisdeescalatingtensionwiththeWest.Buttherewillbenodeescalationifit'sseenas
aretreat,asasignofweakness."Thisissoimportantitbearsrepeating,"Arbatovinsists.
ThecurtailmentoffightinginSyria,theconcessiononarmedobserversintheDonbas,aresignsofPutindeescalating.Theseare
majorstepstowardreconciliation.
IsRussiabecomingisolationist?Itisgoingthatwaynotbyitsownchoice.Russiadoesnotwanttobeisolationist.Russiaisanxious
foranendtoisolation.Russiacelebrates,forinstance,movesagainstthesanctionsinFrance'sNationalAssembly.Self-relianceis
nowthesloganoftheday.Butnotisolation.
GettingclosertotheWestendangersRussia'ssystem.ButRussianeedsinvestmentfromtheWest.ThisisRussia'sbigdilemma.
ThedilemmawithChinaisthatRussiaisvastlyinferior.GettingclosertoChinaopensRussiatounfairtreatmentbyChina.
Sixty-fourpercentofthepopulationseestheUSasanenemy...Butmoreimportantly,Arbatovargues,thereare25percentwho
STILLseetheUSasafriend.Thatnumberisamazing,consideringeverything.
Continuityandchangeinrelations:RussianolongerwilltolerateWesterninterferenceinitssphereofinfluence.Russiaunderstands
equalityasmeaningthatitsinterestswillbetakenintoaccount.Nomoredoublestandards:iftheUSthinksitcandosomething,
Russiathinksitcanaswell.
RussiawilldelinkitsdomesticpoliciesfromitsrelationswiththeWest.
PRisofgreaterimportancetoPutinthantoanyotherRussianleader.
Doingthingsbysurpriseisaprimedriver.Thisisafeatureofpost-Crimeapolicy.
Foreignpolicyisbeingdonebypeoplewithlowintellectualcapacity,peoplelikePatrushevandBortnikov.Decisionsarebeing
madeinisolation,evenastheworldgetsmorecomplex.
Russiawillnotshyawayfromanaction-reactiondynamic,evenifthereactionhurtsRussia'sinterests.Actionswilltakenwithout
regardtowhattheUScounterreactionwillbe,includingtheNATObuildup--areactionthatRussiahadnotthoughtthrough.
Russiathinksithasmadeitspoint.Itisreadytocooperateaslongasitdoesn'tlooklikeretreat.
TherearepotentialsolutionstotheDonbas,Arbatovsays,abovealltheofferforarmedOSCEobserversontheborder.
AslongasPutinistheretherewillbenomajorpoliticaloreconomicreforms,andtherewillbenoresetwiththeWest.Butthe
relationshipcanbemanaged.

HoffmanraisesconcernaboutPutin'sasymmetrictactics.Werewewrongaboutthat?
ArbatovsaysPutinwillbeasymmetricwhereheneedstobe,andhewon'tbewherehedoesn'tneedtobe.

GeneRumersaystheEuroAtlanticsecurityarrangementthatcouldhavebeenexpectedbyRussiahasgoneaway.TheWestis
seenasathreattoRussia'ssovereignty,astestifiedbyForeignMinisterLavrov'srecentarticle.NonethelessRussiaisnotan
expansionistpower.TheyhaveazoneofprivilegedintereststhattheywilldefendagainstencroachmentsbytheWest,includingby
militarymeans.Thesixcountriesthatareinthe"greyzone"arethethreeSouthCaucasusstatesandBelarus,Ukraine,and
Moldova.Thesearethebattlegroundstates.USpositionsonUkrainearepushingintothistightspaceandinvitingunpredictable
outcomes.

Russianpolicyismadefromthetopdown.
AdvicetothenewUSadministration?Rumer'sadvicewouldbe:WeneedtoreengagewithPutin.

AdvicetoPutin?ArbatovsayshisadvicewouldbetostateclearlythatRussiaisnothreattotheBaltics.
Russiashouldmakeassurancesaboutnon-useofnuclearweapons.Russiaisreadyforweaponsreductionstoo.

TomGrahamsaysweshouldthinkaboutRussiaasanAsianpower,notjustaEuropeanproblem.RussiaisimportanttoAsia.Can
weengagewithRussiaonAsia,whereweandtheymighthavemoreincommon.

Rumersaysthereareareaswherewecouldcooperatebutwebothwouldneedtoovercomeourmutualworldviews.Inprinciple
wecancollaboratewhenit'snecessary.Butonlyintimesofdeepcrisis.

ArbatovsaysRussianeedsinvestmentintheFarEast..Bothsidesneedtostopmisspendingresourcesonarmsagainsteachother,
needtostartfindingareasofcooperation,whetherit'sintheArcticorelsewhere.

RussiansseeTrumpasunpredictablebuttheyseeClintonaspredictableinabadway,perArbatov.Putincouldhaveagood
relationwithTrump,butasRussianshaveseenwithErdoganthatthatisanunpredictablequality.
LiberalsaredividedoverTrump.ButpeopleareworriedaboutClinton,thatshewouldfeelitnecessarytotryextrahardtobe
toughonRussia.
Oneofthebigproblemsisthelackofcontactbetweenthemilitaries,andthedisrespecttheyhaveforeachother.
Rearmscontrol,ArbatovsaysPutintreatsarmscontrolasapawn,asawaytogetconcessionsinotherareas.It'snotimportant
untoitself.ArmscontrolprogresscouldreturnunderanewUSadministration.

ArbatovsaysthatifRussiaisignoredunderanewAdministration,itwilltakestepstomakeitselfknown.
RumersaysitwouldbeamistaketojusttrytowaitPutinout.

CouldSyriabecomeanareaofcooperation?IfUkraineisresolved,Syriacouldbecomeanareaofrealmilitarycooperation,
Arbatovsays.ArbatovsaysifhewereinchargehewouldsparenoefforttotrytoresolveUkraine,itisthemostimportantRussia-
Westconflictinyears,andneedstoberesolved.
JustpullingbacktheseparatistswouldnotworkforRussia,becauseUkrainewouldjustmovebackin.Soapeacekeepingforce
alongwithRussianunitswouldbethewaytogo,Arbatovsays,tokeepthesidesseparatedbutreassurethesides.Itcouldbea
waytogetsanctionsremoved.ItwouldbeanunprecedentedconcessiononPutin'sparttoallowanarmedoutsidecontingentin
thepost-Sovietspace.

Rehybridwarfareandtools,Russiacanusethemtoitsadvantage.It'sthefutureofwarfare.
ArbatovsaystheUSneedstounderstanditsownfaultinthefactthatRussia-USrelationsarebad.ButRussia,typically,hasnow
swungfromoneextremeofbehaviortoanother,fromoverlypassivetooverlybellicose."Weneednewrulesofbehavior."

ReKarabakh,ArbatovsaysRussiaisbetweenthetwosides.Itisneutral.Turkeyplayedaroleinthelatestconflict.Russiaismore
engagedinTransnistria,andthesituationismoredangerousthere,dependingonUSpolicy.

ThecorridorbetweentheLOCsfromMinsk1andMinsk2shouldbewherethearmedUN/OSCEobserversarelocated,
Arbatovsays.Fromthere,theyshouldmonitortheRussian-Ukrainianborder,alongthewholeborder.Thiswouldremove
questionsaboutRussia'srole.

SentfrommyiPad

 From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 05/19/201604:20:37PM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:[AVERYRICHLATEAFTERNOON/ESTRUN][PETE/B]ForCrimeanTatars,itisaboutmuchmorethan1944TheMonsterUnderThe
Subject:
Kremlin......[PAUL/B]NYTOP-ED:RussiaIsTryingtoWipeOutCrimeasTatars.....[ANT/F]InterestingTakeonNATO/EUExpansion...
Attachments: My_Past_and_Identities__en.pd.pdfhimka.pdf

From:wolodymyrzarycky[mailto:wzarcusur@gmail.com]
Sent:Thursday,May19,20163:36PM
Subject:Fwd:[AVERYRICHLATEAFTERNOON/ESTRUN][PETE/B]ForCrimeanTatars,itisaboutmuchmorethan1944TheMonster
UnderTheKremlin......[PAUL/B]NYTOP-ED:RussiaIsTryingtoWipeOutCrimeasTatars.....[ANT/F]InterestingTakeonNATO/EU
Expansion...

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>
Date:Thu,May19,2016at6:35PM
Subject:[AVERYRICHLATEAFTERNOON/ESTRUN][PETE/B]ForCrimeanTatars,itisaboutmuchmorethan1944The
MonsterUnderTheKremlin......[PAUL/B]NYTOP-ED:RussiaIsTryingtoWipeOutCrimeasTatars.....[ANT/F]Interesting
TakeonNATO/EUExpansionFromHUFM.....CliffK:Ondopes,dopingandtheRU-IRnukethreat....MikeyAverko:Giving
Vlad'sViewpointYetOnceAgain.......[TH]RemarkableTapeAboutWarinUA.....[R
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:PeterBorisow<ap.borisow@comcast.net>
Date:Thu,May19,2016at2:45PM
Subject:ForCrimeanTatars,itisaboutmuchmorethan1944
To:"Waz(Columbia)"<waz2102@columbia.edu>

RemembersYetAnotherGenocidebyRussia

http://uk.news.yahoo.com/crimean-tatars-much-more-1944-104521457.html

ForCrimeanTatars,itisaboutmuchmorethan1944More

Kiev,Ukraine-TherearefewerandfewersurvivorsoftheCrimeanTatardeportationsaroundtotelltheirstories,but
TamilaTashevaandhercolleagueshavebeenabletocollectsome.

Tashevaisaco-founderofCrimeaSOS,anactivistgroupthatprovideslegal,psychologicalandhumanitarian
assistancetoCrimeanTatarsandotherswhohavefledthepeninsula,wheretheMuslimTatarsmakeupabout13
percentofthepopulation,sinceitwasannexedbyRussiainMarch2014.

TocommemorateUkraine'sfirst-everofficialdayofremembranceoftheCrimeanTatardeportationsin1944,
CrimeaSOSorganisedanexhibitionofportraitsandthestoriesof10survivors.

In1944,StalinorderedthemassdeportationofCrimeanTatars,allegingthattheyhadcollaboratedwiththeNazis
despitethefactthattensofthousandshadservedintheRedArmy.

Around180,000weredeportedinsealedtrainstoCentralAsiaandSiberia.Thousandsdiedduringthejourney,and
nearlyhalfperishedfromstarvationanddiseasewithinthefirstfewyearsofexile.

Thesurvivorsandtheirdescendantsweren'tallowedtoreturntoCrimeauntilthe1980s.

'Theywereeatenbyjackals'
"Irememberthestoriesmygreat-grandmotherwouldtellme,"Tashevatoldreportersattheopeningoftheexhibitionat
UkrainianHouseincentralKiev.

"Themoretimegoesby,thefewerchanceswehavetohearaboutwhathappenedin1944fromthelipsofsurvivors
themselves."

Amongthestoriesfrom1944thatTashevaandothershavecollectedisSaiid's.

Hewasabouttoturn10whensoldiersknockedonthedoorofhisfamily'shomeinYevpatoriainthemiddleofthenight.

"Weweretoldthatwewerebeingevictedandwehad15minutestogetreadytoleave,"herecounted.

"Weboardedboxcars-therewere60peopleineach,butnooneknewwherewewerebeingtakento.Tobeshot?
Hanged?Tearsandpanicweretakingover."

WATCH:Comingback-thestoryoftheCrimeanTatarsandtheirstruggletoreturnhome

Forsome,thejourneywouldbedeadly.

"Wespent18daysonthetrain[toUzbekistan],"recalledRadife,awomaninher80s."Wehadonebigkettleanda
waterbailerfordrinking."

Munire,a93-year-oldwomanfromBakhchysarai,saidthatwhilenoonediedinhercarriage,thatwasn'tthecasein
others.

"Wedidn'tevenhavetimetoburythemonthestops,sodeadpeoplewerejustleftthere."

But,formany,theworstwasstilltocome.

Nijar,fromasmallvillageincentralCrimea,describedtheconditionsinsidetheformerprisonbarrackswheremany
werehousedwhentheyfirstarrivedinUzbekistan.

"Therewereunsanitaryconditionseverywhere,"shesaid."Wehadsevenoreightbodieseveryday.

"Whenwehadnostrengthtoburythem,theywereeatenbyjackals."

'Alessonforthefuture'
RustamGafuri,thedeputygrandmuftiofUkraineandaCrimeanTatar,saysthatthesearethetypesofstoriesthat
needtobetoldifpeoplearetounderstandtheCrimeanTatars'past-andtheirfuture.

AtAr-RahmaMosque,theUkrainiancapital'sonlymosque,Gafuridescribeswhathebelievestobehismissionasa
CrimeanTatarcommunityandreligiousleader.

"Ourtaskistoshowourculturetootherpeople,"heexplainsinslow,measuredRussian."Itistotrytoteachour
culture,thehistoryofourpeople,ourtraditionallanguage,topeoplefromothercountriessothattheybecomefamiliar
withit."

ForGafuri,thedestructionofCrimeanTatarbooks,manuscriptsandmosquesbytheSovietsafter1944underlinesthe
needtorememberandsharestoriesaboutlifebeforethedeportations.

"Weneedtounderstandthatmemoryisnotjustaboutrememberingwhathashappened,"hesays."Tous,memoryis
alessonforthefuture."
 'Myfamilyisafraid'
YoungCrimeanTatarslikeSabinatakelessonslikethesetoheart.

SabinahaslivedinKievforninemonths,butherfamilyisstillinSimferopol,Crimea'scapital.Shereturnstovisitthem
-infact,shewasthereduringUkraine'searlyMayholidays-butsaysthatsheandherfamilyhaven'tfeltcomfortable
sincetheRussianannexationofthepeninsulainMarch2014.

"Myfamilyisafraidtosayanything,"saysSabina,whoaskedthatherlastnamenotbepublished."Theyareafraidto
talkloudlyaboutproblems,aboutCrimeanTatarissuesandthingslikethat."

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:PeterBorisow<ap.borisow@comcast.net>
Date:Thu,May19,2016at2:41PM
Subject:TheMonsterUnderTheKremlin
To:"Waz(Columbia)"<waz2102@columbia.edu>

InPutin'sRussia,EveryDayCanBeValentine'sDay!

http://www.rferl.org/content/the-monster-under-the-kremlin/27744522.html

ThePowerVertical

TheMonsterUnderTheKremlin
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Share:

(cartoonofthedaybySergeyElkin,RFE/RL)

ByBrianWhitmore

May19,2016

A tfirstglance,themassiveshoot-outatMoscow'sKhovanskoyeCemeterythispastweekend
seemedprettyretro.

What,afterall,remindsusmoreofthe1990sthanrivalRussiangangsstagingadeadlybrawlina
turfwarovercontrolofthelucrativeburialbusiness?Whatismorereminiscentofthegratuitous
violenceandlawlessnessofthefirstpost-Sovietdecadethanashootinggalleryamidthe
tombstones?

"ThewildRussian'90s,repletewithmurders,racketeering,andcriminal-fueledchaos,areback,"the
magazineTheAmericanInterestopinedonitsMafiaStateWatchblog,addingthatRussian
leaderVladimir"PutinhaslongboastedthathealonewasabletohelpRussiagetoverthis
tumultuousperiod,andthathealonecouldguaranteestabilityforanunlimitedamountoftime."

Butinadditiontogivingusablastfromthepast,theshowdownatMoscow'slargestcemeteryalso
gaveus--perhaps--aglimpseofthefuture.

BecausePutinneverendedthegangsterismofthe1990s,hejustnationalizedit.

AndnowtheKremlin'sgripmaybeslipping.

IfBorisYeltsin'sRussiaoftenresembledamafiamasqueradingasacountry,itwasamafiarunbya
weak,feeble,andfrequentlyinebriatedgodfather.This,ofcourse,wasarecipeforchaos,asitgave
Yeltsin'scaposandunderbossesalotofleeway,whichtheyusedwithimpunity.

Putin,incontrast,sentaclearandearlymessagetotheunderworld:thestateisthebiggestgangin
townandallothersaresubordinatetoit.

Putin'sdealwiththecriminalunderworldwassimple:doyourgangsterstuff,butdon'tdoitinthe
opendon'tembarrasstheKremlinwiththenoisypublicshoot-outsthatwerethehallmarkofthe
1990s.

Andoh,bytheway,iftheKremlinneedsafavorsomeday,youhadbestbereadytooblige.

Theshoot-outinKhovanskoyeCemeteryviolatedPutin'sfirstcommandmenttotheunderworld.

Italsoexposedthesoftunderbellyoftheregimeitrevealedtherotthatformsthefoundationof
Putin'sPowerVertical.
 Organizedcrimegroupsarecolludingwiththeauthoritiesandwithlawenforcementateverylevel.
Policeareoftenmoreconcernedwithtaxingtheillegalnarcoticstradethanfightingit.Andeven
thingslikecemeteriesareboundupinRussia'ssprawlingpolitical-bureaucratic-criminalweb.

Russianmediaquotedlawenforcementofficialsassayingthatthisweekend'sshoot-out--which
involvedenforcersfromtheNorthCaucasusattackingCentralAsianmigrantsworkingatthe
cemetery--wasrelatedtoturfwarsoverwhowouldcontrolburialplotsandmaintenanceworkatthe
cemetery.

Oneofthosearrestedwasapoliceofficer.Alsounderinvestigationisthecemetery'sdirector.And
oneofthemainsubjectsoftheinvestigationisRitual,astate-runfuneralagency.

"Thelanguageofthebanditized'90snolongerdescribestoday'spowerstructures,"journalistand
politicalanalystOlegKashinwroteinSlon.ru."Theintegrationbetweencriminalsandthe
authoritiesisonawholenewlevel,asarethestakes."

AndthemonsterundertheKremlinhasbeenrearingitsheadwithincreasingfrequency.

AwarningshotcamebackinNovember2010intheKrasnodarregionwiththe
horrificKushchevskayamassacre,inwhich12people,includingfourchildren,werekilledbya
gangledbyalocalmobbosswithclosetiestolocalpoliticiansandlawenforcement.

Thentherewasthehigh-profileassassinationofthelegendarygangsterAslanUsoyan,anold-
school"vorvzakone"whowasknownbythemoniker"DedKhasan,"indowntownMoscowin
January2013.

AndlastmonthinthevillageofIvashovkainSamaraOblast,therewastheslayingofAndreiGosht,a
formerseniorpoliceofficer,andfiveofhisrelatives--acaseRussianmediareportssuggested
wastiedtoorganizedcrime.

Whentheeconomicpiewasexpanding,itwaseasyfortheKremlintomanipulatethecriminal
underworldandkeepittameandwellfed.

Butthosedaysareover.Thepieisshrinkingandonlythebestconnectedcrimegroupsarethriving-
-andtherestaregettingrestless,andmorewillingtobreaktherules.

Theshoot-outattheKhovanskoyeCemeterymightjustbeaharbinger.

"It'sneithertheoppositionnorthebureaucracy,butthosewhoarewillingtodietoachievetheir
specificgoalswhoareshowinguswhatapotentialcivilwarinRussiacouldlooklike,"Kashinwrote
inhiscolumninSlon.ru.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:PavloBandriwsky<pbandriwsky@gmail.com>
Date:Thu,May19,2016at3:26PM
Subject:Fwd:TodayNewYorkTimes:russia-is-trying-to-wipe-out-crimeas-tatars
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>


http://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/20/opinion/russia-is-trying-to-wipe-out-crimeas-tatars.html?_r=1

RussiasufferedanunexpecteddefeatintheEurovisionSongContestonSaturdaywhenitssinger
cameinthird,whileUkraine,ofallcountries,tookfirstplace.

Toaddinsulttoinjury,Ukrainescontestant,Jamala,isofCrimeanTatardescent.Andshedidnt
singjustanysong,butasongaboutherpeoplesruthlessdeportationbySovietauthoritiesin1944,
whenmorethan230,000CrimeanTatars,anoverwhelmingmajorityofthepopulation,wereexiled
fromtheCrimeanPeninsula.Nearlyhalfdiedasaresultofthisethniccleansing.

RussianofficialscriticizedUkrainesvictoryasyetanotherexampleoftheWestspropagandaand
informationwaragainsttheircountry.Meanwhile,Europeisnodoubtfeelinggoodaboutitselffor
deliveringakarmicblowtoPresidentVladimirV.PutinofRussia,whoseannexationofCrimeain
2014andcontinuingwarinUkrainestillsting.

ButtheEurovisionvictorytookplaceintheworldofentertainment.Intherealworld,Russiais
escalatingitscrackdownontheCrimeanTatars,whonowmakeup12percentofCrimeaspopulation
aftertheSovietUnionallowedthedeportationsurvivorsandtheirdescendantstoreturnin1989.

OnApril26,RussiabannedtheCrimeanTatarslegislature,theMejlis,callingitanextremist
organization.OnMay12,theauthoritiesarrestedseveralTatars,includingIlmiUmerov,deputy
chairmanoftheMejlis.Activistssaythatmoresearchesandarrestsarelikelysoon.Thiswouldbea
particularlytone-deafmoveonRussiaspart,consideringthattheanniversaryofthe1944
deportationisthisweek.

ButifpasttreatmentoftheCrimeanTatarsisanythingtogoby,Russiaprobablyisntbotheredby
that.
TheCrimeanTatarshavealwaysbeeneasyscapegoatsforRussia.JosephStalinsjustificationfor
deportingthemwasthattheyhadsidedwithGermanyinWorldWarII.Itstruethatsomedid,
historianssay,eitherbecausetheywereforcedtobytheinvadingarmyorbecausetheybelievedthe
GermanswouldliberatethemfromtheSovietUnion.ButrecordsshowthatjustasmanyCrimean
Tatars,ifnotmore,didnotdefectduringthewar.ManyfoughtvaliantlyfortheRedArmy.

BrianGlynWilliams,ahistorianattheUniversityofMassachusettsatDartmouth,positsthatStalins
truemotivationwasntrevengebutinsteadplanstolaunchawaragainstTurkeytoretakelandthat
RussiahadlostduringWorldWarI.StalinwantedtoneutralizepotentialcollaboratorstheCrimean
Tatars,aMuslimTurkicpeople,wereprimesuspects.

TheCrimeanTatarssufferinggoesasfarbackas1783,whenRussiafirstconqueredandannexed
thepeninsulaandbeganforcingthemout.ForhundredsofyearsbeforeRussiatookcontrol,the
CrimeanTatarshadtheirownstate,theCrimeanKhanate.

CrimeanTatarsstillrefusetosubmittoRussianoccupation.Mostopposedthe2014annexation,and
theirleadershipcontinuestodemandCrimeasreunificationwithUkraine.

Russiahasnottakenkindlytothisdissent.RussianauthoritieshaveshutdownCrimeanTatar
media.Russianforceshaveraidedhomesandmosques,andharassedandimprisonedCrimeanTatar
activists,someofwhomhavedisappearedorbeenkilled.RussiahastriedtoblocktheCrimean
Tatarsfrompubliclycommemoratingthedeportationandhasevenre-exiledMustafaDzhemilev,
theCrimeanTatarspoliticalleader.

AccordingtoUkrainesForeignMinistry,about20,000CrimeanTatarshavefledthepeninsulasince
theannexation.Thisisdevastatingforapeoplewhospent45yearsbanishedfromtheirhomeland.
ManythoughttheyweredonewithRussiaonceandforallwhentheSovietUniondisintegratedand
CrimeabelongedtoUkraine.Fewpredictedthattheirnightmarewouldbeginanewin2014.

IftheCrimeanTatarsaretosurvive,Westerngovernmentsmustdomoretohelp.

ThefirststepistoformallyrecognizetheCrimeanTatarsastheindigenouspeopleofCrimea.
Ukrainefinallydidsotwoyearsago,andtheEuropeanParliamentlaterfollowed.Likewise,the1944
deportationshouldberecognizedasanactofgenocide.Ukraineofficiallydeclareditsoin2015andis
nowcallingonothergovernmentsandorganizations,includingtheUnitedNations,todothesame.

TheStateDepartmenthasissuedtheoccasionalnewsreleasedenouncingRussiastreatmentofthe
Tatars,butthisisnotenough.AfterRussia'sinvasionofCrimea,PresidentObamasignedexecutive
ordersoutliningthesanctionstheUnitedStateswouldapplyandthejustificationsforthem.These
shouldbeupdatedtociteRussiashumanrightsviolationsagainsttheTatars.TheUnitedStates
shouldalsopushforEuropeanUnionofficialstorenewsanctionsagainstRussiawhentheyexpireat
theendofJuly.NotdoingsowouldsignaltoMr.Putinthathecangetawaywithtramplingon
Ukrainessovereignty.

Inaddition,AmericanelectedofficialsshouldsupporttheStandforUkrainebill,introducedin
CongressinApril.ThelawwouldaffirmtheUnitedStatesrefusaltorecognizeRussiasannexationof
Crimea.Moresignificantly,itwouldpreventthepresidentfromliftingthesanctionslistedinthe
executiveordersuntilCrimeasstatushasbeenresolvedwithUkrainesapproval.

TheCrimeanTatarsaredoingalltheycantoresistthedestructionoftheirculture.Lastyear
activistspreventedfoodandpowercomingfromUkrainefromenteringthepeninsula.Theblockade
causedblackoutsbutdemonstratedhowdependentCrimeawasontheUkrainianmainland.Mr.
DzhemilevandotherCrimeanTatarleadersinUkrainefrequentlymeetwithforeignleadersand
appearinthenewsmedia.CrimeanTatarrepresentativesaretryingtomaketheircasetothe
UnitedNations.

Isanyonelistening?Theworlddoesnothaveagoodtrackrecordwhenitcomestoprotecting
indigenouspeoplesitisoftentooeagertosacrificethemforpoliticalexpediency.

TherearethosewhosaythatCrimeaisalostcausethatMr.Putinwillneverallowittobe
returnedtoUkrainebecauseRussiantiestothepeninsularuntoodeep.TheyforgetthatCrimea
belongedtotheCrimeanTatarsfirst,longbeforetheRussianEmpire,theSovietUnionandMr.
Putin.
ChristinaM.Paschyn,aninstructorofjournalismatNorthwesternUniversityinQatar,isthedirectorofthe
documentaryfilmAStruggleforHome:TheCrimeanTatars.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:AntonivFamily<antoniv_family@msn.com>
Date:Thu,May19,2016at4:02PM
Subject:HungarysMinisterofExternalEconomyandForeignAffairsPeterSzijjarto(interview)
To:

5/19/2016

Hungary'sForeignMinisterOnChina,NATOExpansion,andRefugeesAsWeapons
http://www.forbes.com/sites/anderscorr/2016/05/19/hungarys-foreign-minister-on-china-nato-expansion-and-refugees-
as-weapons/print/
HungarysMinisterofExternalEconomyandForeignAffairsPeterSzijjarto

...
Anders:IfinditinterestingthatyourpositiononNATOenlargementisfairlypositive.
Pter:Yeah,definitely.

Anders:IncludingGeorgiaandUkraine,whichisverycontroversialIthink.
Pter:OurpositionisthatNATOenlargementshouldcontinue,andEUenlargementshouldcontinueaswell.Wewere
absolutelyunsatisfiedanddisappointedwiththepositionofthePresidentoftheEuropeanCommissionsayingthat
thereisnotgoingtobeanyenlargementinthecomingfiveyears.Wehavenotauthorizedhimtosayanysuchthing.
Ourpositionisthatyes,bothNATOandEUenlargementshouldbecontinuedbecausewethinkthatbothNATOand
theEUcouldbemuchstrongerifenlargementcontinues.Themorewearethestrongerweare.Ifyoudontgivepositive
feedbacktothosecountrieswhohavebeenputtingmanyeffortsintomeetingtherequirementsofintegration,thentheirpeoplewill
asktheirgovernments,Whyhaveyoumadesomanyefforts?Whyhaveyoumadesomanyconcessionsiftheresnofeedback
fromtheotherside?Wewillendangerthestabilityofthesecountriesandwewillendangerthepoliticalsupportofthose
governmentsifyoudontgivethempositivefeedback.Iftheirpeoplecanaskthemwhyhaveyoumadesomanyeffortsifthereis
nopositivefeedback,thentheywillloseonthenextelections.Whyshouldwecauseharddaysanddifficultiesforthose
governmentsthatareactuallyinfavoroftransatlanticintegrationandEuropeanintegration?SoourpositionisthatNATOshouldbe
enlargedbyGeorgiaandMacedonia.WearehappywithMontenegro.AndwhenitcomestoUkraineitistheUkrainianpeople
whohavetodecideabouttheirfuture.

Anders:SomeoftheconcernthatIheardisthatexpansioncouldprovokeRussia.
Pter:YoumeanexpansiontoGeorgia.WeshouldnotforgetthatGeorgiaisthenumberonecontributortointernationalactionsof
NATO,whilenotbeingaNATOmember.Sowhenweaskfortheirsupportwehavetotakeintoconsiderationthatweshould
reciprocatesomehow.

Anders:IhaveseenthesameissueraisedaboutUkraine:thatenlargementofNATOorenlargementoftheEUintoUkraine
wouldsomehowprovokeRussia.

Pter:Inthisrespectmypositionisthatwemustimmediatelygiveavisa-freetravelregimetoUkraineandGeorgiaonbehalfof
theEU.Ifwedontgiveavisa-freeregimetothesecountriesthenitwillactuallytakeawaythecredibilityoftheEuropeanUnion
andEuropeanintegration.Becausetheyhavemetallthenecessaryrequirementsallofthem.Soifyoudontgivethemavisa-
freeregimenowthenwegivethemessagethatdespiteyourhavingmettherequirements,wecandecidewhetherwetakeyouor
not.And,thisissomethingthatweshouldntdo......

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:CliffKincaid<kincaid@comcast.net>
Date:Thu,May19,2016at10:27AM
Subject:Dopes,Doping,andtheRussian-IranianNuclearThreat
To:"zarycky,wolodymyr"<wzarcusur@gmail.com>

Dopes,Doping,andtheRussian-IranianNuclearThreat
ByCliffKincaid

http://www.aim.org/aim-column/dopes-doping-and-the-russian-iranian-nuclear-threat/#comments

TheRussianshavebeendopingtheirathletes,butwearethedopes.InascandalworsethanfailingtodealwithISIS,theObama
administrationhasbeencaughtfacilitatingthenuclearbuildupsofRussiaandIran.ThelivesofmillionsofAmericansandIsraelis
hanginthebalance.

PlayingapivotalroleovertheyearsinAmericasdeclineandtherapidriseofRussiaandChinastandsHenryKissinger,theformer
secretaryofstatewhometforanhourwithDonaldJ.TrumponWednesday.KissingerhasalsoservedasatutortoHillary
Clintoninforeignaffairs.IwasveryflatteredwhenHenryKissingersaidIrantheStateDepartmentbetterthananybodyhadrun
itinalongtime,Mrs.ClintonremarkedduringoneoftheDemocraticdebates.

Whatsomeconservativeshavecynicallycalledtheinvisiblegovernment,asrepresentedbytheCouncilonForeignRelationsand
suchfiguresasKissinger,seemswell-positionedtocomeoutontopinNovembernomatterwhowins.

ForTheWashingtonPost,theRussiandopingscandalisasymptomofwhatweareupagainst,intermsofdeception.
ItseditorialnotesevidencethatRussianofficialsclandestinelycarriedoutadopingprogramattheSochi[Olympic]Gamesby
givingathletesperformance-enhancingdrugsandthentamperingwiththeirurinesamplestocoveritup.ButthoseOlympicGames
shouldhavecausedconcernforanotherandmoreimportantreason.Sovietsymbols,suchasthehammerandsickle,
weredisplayedwithprideduringtheopeningceremonyinRussia.PerhapstheRussianshadnotbrokenwiththeiroldSovietpast
asmanyintheintelligencecommunityhadbeenledtobelieve.

AftertheinvasionofUkraine,AirForceGeneralPhilipM.BreedloveacknowledgedtheU.S.hadbeentreatingRussiaasa
partneringlobalaffairs,andthatitwasabigmistake.

Havewebeenduped?Orarewethedopes?Orworse,hastheU.S.intelligencecommunitybeeninfiltratedbytheRussiansor
Russianagents?WhyisKissinger,asymbolofAmericasdecline,beinglookedtoasawisemanforthefuture?

Inthesportsscandal,thePostfoundaconnectiontotheFSB,thesuccessortotheKGBthatwasrunbyRussianPresident
VladimirPutin.Thepaperexplained,TheRussianFederalSecurityService,asuccessortotheKGB,reportedlytookpartinthe
dopingoperation,subvertingtheOlympicidealandsoilingoneoftheglobesmostprestigiousevents.ThePostaddedthisscandal
tomanyothers,includingthesiphoningoffofitsrichesbyMr.Putinscronies,theharassmentandmurderofMr.Putinsfoes,the
promotionofdishonestpropagandaandthewayRussiahassoughttoundermineUkrainewithviolence.RussiasbehaviorinSochi
makestheReaganproverbtrust,butverifyseemquaint.TherecanbenotrustingaslongasMr.Putinisincharge.

TheWashingtonPostquotingRonaldReagan?Thatmaybeafirst.

SoiftheRussianscheatedatsports,whataboutarmscontrolagreements?Weknowthattheyhavecheatedthereaswell.The
ObamaadministrationadmitsRussia'sviolationsoftheIntermediateNuclearForcesTreaty(INF),butwontdoanythingaboutit.

RatherthanconfrontRussia,PresidentObamawillvisitHiroshimatotalkaboutthedangersofnuclearweapons.Withoutsayingso
explicitly,thepurposeofthevisitistohighlighthowtheUnitedStatesendedWorldWarIIbyusingnucleararms.Thatissupposed
tobeablackmarkonourpast.

Yet,ourenemiesareintheprocessofbeingabletoturntheUnitedStatesintoagiantHiroshima.Sincedroppingthepretensethat
Russiaisourpartnerinforeignaffairs,ourtopgeneralshavebeenwarningrepeatedlythatRussiaismodernizingitsnuclear
arsenalandnowposesanexistentialthreat.Rep.DevinNunes(R-CA)haswarnedthattheU.S.intelligencecommunitybadly
misjudgedRussianintentions,failingtoanticipateRussianaggressioninEuropeandtheMiddleEast.Hecomparesthemagnitude
ofthisfailureofintelligencetothe9/11terroristattacksonAmericansoil.

FrankGaffneyoftheCenterforSecurityPolicyconfirmsthenucleardisadvantagewearefacing.HisinterviewwithDr.Mark
Schneider,SeniorAnalystwiththeNationalInstituteforPublicPolicy,ischilling.

AstheRussianthreatgrows,theadministrationhasbeencaughtlyingaboutthenucleardealwithIran.FrankGaffney,inhis
owncommentary,callsthisnationalsecurityfraud,notingthatObamasDeputyNationalSecurityAdvisorforStrategic
Communications,BenRhodes,andothersmanipulatedtheinexperience,incompetenceandsympathyfortheObamaagendaof
muchoftodaysmediaTheIrannuclearagreementwasatrick,adeceptiondesignedtofooltheAmericanpeopleandtheir
electedrepresentatives.AfewSenateRepublicanshavecalledforRhodestobefiredorforcedtoresignhispost.

Meanwhile,RussiandeliveryofS-300missilestoIranhasbeenconfirmed.Apro-Russianwebsiteisgleeful,noting,Thesingle
mostimportantaspectofthisdevelopmentisthefactthatboththeU.S.andIsraelareknowntobeconcernedthattheRussian
weaponswillpreventasurpriseairstrikeonIraniannuclearfacilities.

EnterRep.PeterKing(R-NY),whoconsideredSenatorTedCruz(R-TX)absolutelyunacceptableasapresidentialcandidate,
eventhoughCruzhadbeenintheforefrontofdemandingthattheadministrationholdRussiaaccountableforitsviolationsofthe
INFtreaty.

KingsaysheiswillingtobackTrump,eventhoughhesaystheNewYorkbusinessmanhasengagedinaromancewiththe
Russianleader.Istillhaverealquestionswithhimasfarasnationalsecurityisconcerned,KingtoldCBSsFacetheNationon
May15.

KinghadotherconcernsaboutTrump,saying,Idon'tthinkhisAsianpolicyiscoherent,because,again,ifhedoeswanttogetin
atradewarwithChina,hehastoexplainhowthatcoincideswithhimwantingtouseChinaagainstNorthKorea.Ifhewantsto
haveleverageoverChina,howcanhebetalkingabouttakingtroopsoutofJapanandKorea?Doesheknowthatitcostsmoreto
takethetroopsoutthantoleavethemthere?AnddoesherealizethatthatwouldjustweakenourleverageagainstChina?

Onthesameprogram,RobertGates,theformerU.S.secretaryofdefense,said,Youcan'thaveatradewarwithChinaandthen
turnaroundandaskthemtohelpyouonNorthKorea.IhavenoideawhathispolicywouldbeintermsofdealingwithISIS.I
worryalittlebitabouthisadmirationforVladimirPutin.

MichaelHayden,theformerdirectoroftheCIAandNSA,sayshejustcantvoteforTrump,citinghisstandsonvarioussecurity-
relatedissuesandlackofdepthonforeignpolicy.HehadpreviouslystatedthatformerSecretaryofStateClinton,wholiedabout
Benghazi,isbetterpreparedthanTrumpforthepresidency.

ButwhyisHaydensjudgmentworthanything?Theintelligencecommunityheranandrepresentshasbeenadisaster.AsRep.
Nunesindicated,theCIAdidntanticipateRussiansrearmamentandmilitaryaggression.Whatsmore,theNSAwasinfiltratedby
analystEdwardSnowden,whostoleoveronemillionsecretdocumentsandhandedthemovertoourenemies.

WiredmagazinepublishedaphotoofSnowdenandHaydenatagalatogetherin2011.

Morerecently,theformerheadoftheDefenseIntelligenceAgency(DIA),Lt.Gen.MichaelT.Flynn,wasphotographedsitting
nexttoPutinataMoscowgalahonoringtheMoscow-fundedpropagandachannelRT(RussiaToday).Flynnisnowanadviserto
Trump.

Russiahasbeencaughtdopingitsathletes,butthemoredangerousformofdopingconsistsofthedopesintheU.S.intelligence
communitywhomisjudgedtheRussiansandnowrunaroundmasqueradingasexpertsandwritingbooksonintelligence.Whereis
theaccountabilityforthesemassivefailuresofintelligence?Whohasbeenfired?

WriterErikShillingnotesthat,inJuly,thepresumedpresidentialnomineesDonaldTrumpandHillaryClintonwillget
intelligencebriefings,featuringseveralhoursoftopsecretinformation

Mrs.Clintonsreputationasasecurityriskiswell-known.DonaldTrumpsromancewithPutinhasbeenacknowledgedand
criticizedbyoneofhiscongressionalsupporters.

AsmyoldfriendJimmyfromBrooklynsays,Itsamazingwevelastedthislong.

Inthiscontext,itissignificantthatTrump,whosaysheopposesglobalism,metWednesdaywiththetopglobalist,former
SecretaryofStateKissinger,amentortoMrs.Clinton.

IthasbeenreportedthatKissingerssecretivefirm,KissingerAssociates,Inc.,doesbusinessinRussia.WeknowthatTrumphas
beenlookingatbusinessopportunitiesinRussiasincetheSovietdays.Sotheyshouldgetalongwell.Inhisintroductiontothe
2002book,TheNewRussianDiplomacy,byRussianofficialIgorS.Ivanov,KissingerdiscussedhowRussiaandtheU.S.have
arareopportunitytoworktogetherinbuildinganewinternationalsystem.DespiteRussianaggressioninEuropeandtheMiddle
East,thatappearstobeTrumpsapproach.

Mrs.ClintonsRussianresetbackfired,butTrumpispreparedtotryitagain.Americafirst?Dontbetonit.
KincaidistheDirectoroftheAIMCenterforInvestigativeJournalism,andcanbecontactedatcliff.kincaid@aim.org

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:MichaelAverko<michaelaverko@msn.com>
Date:Thu,May19,2016at4:46PM
Subject:CoveringRussia[ED:....."ANDNOWAWORDFROMYOURRTSPONSOR"......][Putin'sUSMouthpiece
athisbest]
To:

Re:http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/may/17/stalin-vodka-and-nuclear-weapons-how-not-to-write-about-
russia

PostedatRussiaInsiderwithsomecriticalremarks-

http://russia-insider.com/en/stalin-vodka-and-nuclear-weapons-how-not-write-about-russia/ri14392

TheGuardianpostedsourcewrotethisaboutthereductionofRussiangovernmentfundingforEnglishlanguage
media:

http://nobsrussia.com/2016/05/18/rt-and-sputnik-commentators-may-be-replaced-by-homeless-men-due-to-
budget-cuts/

AVladmirFrolovisdescribedasbeingsomeoneinchargewithgettinglowerpricedsourcesfortheRussian
governmentfundedEnglishlanguagevenues.

IshethesameVladimirFrolovwhousedtohost/moderatetheRussiaProfilePanelofExperts?

Ifso,it'sfurtherobviouswhytheEnglishlanguagecoverageofRussiacontinuestolack.Theconstructivelycritical
pro-Russianadvocateswho'refamiliarwithFrolov'sviews(asexpressedinTheMoscowTimesandelsewhere)
understandthispoint-havingtodowithhiscriticismsofRussiafrequentlymeshingwithneolibtoneocon,toflatout
anti-Russianleaningperspectives.Ideally,theRussiangovernmentfundedmediaconsultanthasaviewmoreinline
withtheRussiangovernment(thanFrolov),whileunderstandingtheEnglishlanguagemassmediasituation.

Offhand,Ican'tvouchforalloftheclaimsmadeinthelastlinked(fromthetop)article.Notwithstanding,theredoes
seemtobeadiscountedsituationatplay.Forexample,RT'sCrossTalkisstillpresentedasthatstation'sflagship
show.Yet,ithasbeencutfrom5to3showsaweek.ImaginealeadingAmerican24/7TVnewsnetworksuddenly
cuttingbackitstoprated5dayaweekshowto3.

Unlessthingshavereallygottenbad(whichIdon'tbelievetobeso),it'sanextremeabsurdityofadivetogofrom
payingbiggerbucksforaseasonedindividual,toahomelesspersonwithnoexperience,asdescribedinthelast
linkedpiece(givingoneselfthebenefitofdoubtthatthepresentationinquestionmightnotbeaccurate).

MichaelAverko-http://www.eurasiareview.com/author/michael-averko/


----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:TarasHunczak<thunczak@andromeda.rutgers.edu>
Date:Thu,May19,2016at4:36PM
Subject:FW:Fw:NotyourWar
To:TarasHunczak<thunczak@andromeda.rutgers.edu>

Averytouchingvideo

From:MartaBorowyk[mailto:kotsuryk@verizon.net]
Sent:Thursday,May19,201612:50PM
To:Undisclosedrecipients:
Subject:Fwd:Fw:NotyourWar

OnWednesday,May18,20161:39PM,UlanaZinych<uzinych@comcast.net>wrote:

Thiswassenttomebyfriends.Idonotpersonallyknowtheindividualsaboutwhomthisvideo
isdonebutthoughtyoumightliketowatch.SoundslikeVakarchuksinging,butnotsure

MycousinMarta'shusband,Taras,whojustcamebackfromayearonthefront,sentthisvideoabouthisplatoon(rota).
Itwasmadebyoneofhisfriends,whopiecedtogethervideosnipsfromthemembersoftheplatoonandadded
photographsandmusic.Whilenotofgoodtechnicalquality,itcapturesthegrimnatureofwar.ClickontheGooglelink
givenbelow.

Ihor

.mp4

----------Forwardedmessage----------

From:<romashka1@aol.com>
Date:Thu,May19,2016at10:46AM
Subject:Himka[TalesofaHolodomorDoubter.....ifnotoutrightDenier....]
To:wzarcusur@gmail.com,thunczak@andromeda.rugers.edu

JustthoughtyoumayfindreadingHimka'sautobiographicalstatementsinteresting.Identifiesself/as'orthodoxMarxist'....

[SEEATTACHMENT]

My_Past_and_Identities__en.pd.pdfhimka.pdf

Journal of Ukrainian Studies 35-36 (2010-2011 )

My Past and Identities'

John-Paul Himka

Detroit was booming when I was born there in 1949, and it attracted immigrants
from all over the eastern half of America: from the Delta, the Appalachians, and the
moribund little coaltowns of Pennsylvania. My father was part of the anthracite
emigration, as was my mother. I grew up in an extended family in which Polish,
Ukrainian, Slovak, and Italian were tossed about by the older generation, above the
heads ofthe monkey-in-the-middle younger generation to which I belonged. It was
after the war, most ofthe men had seen service, everyone was too busy being Ameri-
can to imagine that there was any point in teaching us young 'uns the old languages,
which hardly any of them could read or write in any case. The food was a mixture of
city chicken, hot dogs, ravioli, and golqbki (or holubtsi, depending on who was doing
the talking). The older they were, the more old-country they were. My father and
mother were the babies of their families and among the most assimilated. Still, there
was a constant buzz of ethnicity in the air, even if none ofthe family had heard the
word back then.
There was also my grandmother. My birth mother had passed away when I was a
baby, and some years were to go by before my father remarried. In the meantime, I
was raised by my grandmother, who came to live with us. She had left the old
country in 1909 but had never really gotten a handle on English. When she came to
raise me, though, she made a choice that both of us later regretted: she would
improve her English by raising me in that language. I later had to learn her native
language, and we switched to that as our medium of communication. It would be an
understatement to say that I loved my grandmother very, very much, and I spent
much of my childhood trying to figure her out. Where did she come from? She said,
"Lemberg, Austria," but it wasn't on the map. Eventually I found it in a historical
atlas in my father's library and matched the location on a modern map: it was now
"Lvov, Russia." By about age twelve I had many things figured out, including that
Grandma was Ukrainian, but Grandma was going to be constantly setting puzzles for
me to solve, even long after she passed away. Many ofthe things she told me just
didn't make sense in terms of the Ukrainian history I subsequently read and was
taught. Long before I could express it, 1 understood that there was an important
distinction to be made between the national codification of Ukrainian history and the
actual past that was experienced by people who are counted as part ofthe Ukrainian
nation.

This essay was originally published in Intellectuals and the Articulation of the Nation, ed.
Ronald Grigor Suny and Michael D. Kennedy (Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press, 1999),
165-69. It is reprinted here (with minor corrections) with the permission of the University of
Michigan Press.
My_Past_and_Identities__en.pd.pdfhimka.pdf

John-Paul Himka

The big jump in my consciousness came when I was fourteen. I wanted to become a
priest and left home for a minor seminary, St. Basil's, in Stamford, Connecticut. I had
been baptized in the Roman Catholic Church, attended a Roman Catholic School, sang
in Latin in Our Lady of Sorrows boys' choir, served as an altar boy at a Roman Catho-
lic summer camp, and heard Sunday mass at the local Roman Catholic parish. But the
discoveries of the previous few years had revealed to me that, in spite of this Roman
Catholic upbringing, 1 was nonetheless canonically a member of an Eastern rite and
that if I wanted to be a priest, I needed a special dispensation to enter the Roman
priesthood. But by then I was all keen to enter Grandma's exotic church, as I thought of
it, and off I went to the Ukrainian-rite seminary.
I received an incredible education at that institution over the next five years,
taught by remarkable men. My teacher of Latin had done his doctorate with Moses
Hadas at Columbia and had written his thesis in Latin; my music teacher was prob-
ably the most prominent conductor of the Ukrainian diaspora; my Ukrainian teacher
has recently been named to succeed to the metropolitan throne of Lviv, that is, to
assume the leadership of the Ukrainian Greek Catholic Church worldwide. Most of
the teachers had doctorates and great erudition in complicated fields like patristic
anthropology. Quite a few had serious academic publications to their credit. Devoted
to their church and nation, they lavished their knowledge on us ingrate boys instead
of making proper careers. We made fun of them all the time, but they inspired us to
learn. We played sports, but we also followed the example of our preceptors, each
according to his talents: arranging the sacred choral music of our church, painting
icons, writing the lives of the saints, studying the traditions of the other Eastern
churches.
Aside from this formal education, I leamed a great deal about Ukrainians, par-
ticularly two kinds of Ukrainians: those whose parents had come after World War II
and who were themselves born abroad (in other words: DPs) and those whose
grandparents had immigrated before World War I, as mine had. These two groups
accounted for the overwhelming majority of the seminarians, and there was always
tension between them. Most of the first-immigration kids came from Pennsylvania
and from an environment that retained much more of its Ukrainian character than
mine had. I fit in well with these guys, from whose number my closest friends were
drawn. But 1 was also impressed by the postwar immigrants: completely fluent in
Ukrainian, possessing a worked-out nationalist worldview, tough-minded. With time,
I was to gravitate more strongly toward them and to assimilate more of their culture.
After I left the seminary, I always sought the company of this postwar immigration
and eventually married into it.
My vocation was no match for the spirit of the times. At the end of the 1960s I
left the seminary and plunged into the radical culture and radical politics of the out-
side world. At the University of Michigan, where I continued my education, my life
consisted of militant demonstrations against the war, against racism, and against
capitalist exploitation, as well as of lectures and seminars.
Michigan was an excellent place to continue my interest in things Ukrainian and
develop a deeper interest in all things East European. Once again I had remarkable
teachers, and peers. I came under the tutelage of Roman Szporluk, now [1991-2007]
the Mykhailo Hrushevsky Professor of Ukrainian History at Harvard University. 1
also studied Balkan history with John Fine and Russian history with Horace Dewey.
My_Past_and_Identities__en.pd.pdfhimka.pdf

My Past and Identities

Close friends of my Michigan years included Roman Solchanyk and Patrick Moore,
now prominent analysts of Ukrainian and Balkan affairs respectively, as well as
Robert Donia, the Bosnian specialist, and Marian Krzyzowski, longtime editor of
Studium Papers. In these years 1 also met the scholars connected with the Harvard
Ukrainian Research Institute; later I was to spend time with them at their home insti-
tution, and some of them were to end up with me in Edmonton.
During this period I had to reconstruct my own Ukrainian identity. The religious
underpinnings had been shuttered. Moreover, I needed a Ukrainian identity that
could accommodate the extreme leftism that 1 now espoused. My grandmother and
one of my teachers at the seminary had already left me with some clues that I fol-
lowed until I came upon the rich traditions of the Ukrainian socialist movements of
the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. And Professor Szporluk guided me to the
Ukrainian socialist thinkers that exercised the largest influence on me for many years
thereafter: the father of Ukrainian radicalism, Mykhailo Drahomanov, and the Marx-
ist historian and interpreter of Capital and the Grundrisse, Roman Rosdolsky. I
eventually was to write my doctoral dissertation (and first book) on the history of the
socialist movement in Galicia and translate one of Rosdolsky's books into English.
I was not the only one trying to reconcile a Ukrainian identity with the radical
North American Zeitgeist. I came across the joumal New Directions from New York
and, really much more exciting for me at the time, the journals coming out from the
Ukrainian New Left in Toronto: Meta and Diialoh. Later 1 was to move to Canada
and marry Meta's co-editor.
Before that, however, in 1974-76 1 embarked on my first trip to Eastern Europe,
spending a year in Cracow, six months in Leningrad, and a month each in Lviv and
Kyiv. It was my first encounter with the other Ukrainians, the ones who had not left for
the West. In Cracow the Ukrainians were similar to the postwar Ukrainians I knew
back home: well versed in Ukrainian lore, nationalist, religious, antisocialist. We got
along well in spite of many differences of opinion. In Leningrad I encountered greater
variety: displaced Galicians with the nationalist worldview; other displaced Ukrainians
who, like the national poet Taras Shevchenko over a century earlier, found that the
alienation they experienced in the northern Russian metropolis only led them to a
deeper appreciation of their roots, although, unlike Shevchenko, they did not know as
much about these roots; others yet who could still remember some words of the
Ukrainian language but had basically melted into "the Soviet people."
Ukraine itself offered me even more variety. On that first trip and on many other
trips over the next twenty-some years, I engaged in close encounters with mighty and
fledgling scholars, illiterate peasant women, enraged dissidents, simptico and ob-
noxious Russians (whether one or the other, their days in authority were numbered),
writers, artists, stamp collectors, crooks, saints, and biznesmeny on the make. Over
the years I watched my friends rewrite their autobiographies, redefine their present
and past selves, and reconstruct their identities (I should add: as I myself am perforce
doing in this essay).
In 1977 I left the United States for Canada, where I was offered a contract position
at the University of Alberta. Again, I was fortunate in the company I encountered. The
professor of Ukrainian history was one of the great luminaries of the diaspora, Ivan
Lysiak Rudnytsky. We became close friends, even though he was a conservative and
by this time I was an orthodox Marxist. Until his death in 1984, he continually gave me
My_Past_and_Identities__en.pd.pdfhimka.pdf

John-Paul Himka

things to read and engaged me in discussion and debate, turning our friendship and
working relationship also into a seminar. In Edmonton i was able to join the editorial
board of Diialoh, which had moved there from Toronto. We had a slogan that captured
our politics perfectly: "For socialism and democracy in an independent Ukraine."
(Most of us later settled for the partial fulfillment of our program that history offered.)
We published ajournai in Ukrainian and, spicier yet, set up a modest smuggling and
intelligence network in Eastern Europe and Ukraine. In addition to the deeply conspira-
torial Diialoh, we also established a left-wing Ukrainian cultural society, Hromada,
which in tum gave birth to the Hromada Housing Co-operative, where some of the old
stalwarts (myself included) still live. In the late seventies/early eighties life was intense,
all cigarettes and public forums and layouts and debates. Key figures in the milieu in-
cluded Bohdan Krawchenko, whom we nicknamed "Captain Ukraine" and who later
became director of the Canadian Institute of Ukrainian Studies and still later an adviser
to the independent Ukrainian government; Myma Kostash, author of ^ / / of Baba's
Children and later head of the Writers' Union of Canada; Halyna Freeland, founder of
Common Woman Books and presently executive director of the Ukrainian Legal
Foundation in Kyiv; and many, many others, not least of whom was my wife Chrystia
Chomiak, an indefatigable activist in many progressive Ukrainian causes.
In the later 1980s things began to change, most dramatically on the international
scene, but also in my personal life. Chrystia and I had children, and I also ended up in
the position formerly occupied by Professor Rudnytsky, with all the responsibilities
that entailed. I managed to finish my second book, on the impact of the Ukrainian na-
tional movement on the Galician countryside, the most consistently Marxist book in
my oeuvre. I decided that as my third monograph 1 would write a study of the Greek
Catholic church in its relationship to the nationality question. It took me about ten years
to write that book, during which time I re-examined and re-evaluated many of the
premises I had been working with hitherto. It has been a time extremely fertile in ideas
and, especially, doubts, one fruit of which is the study of national identity published in
this volume.'*

That is, John-Paul Himka's article 'The Construction of Nationality in Galician Rus': learian
Flights in Almost All Directions," in Inlellecluals and he Articulation of the Nation, ed. Suny and
Kennedy, 109-64.
 From: Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 05/15/201612:00:59PM
To: DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>
Subject: JeffreyGoldbergandMarkLandleronthe'HillaryDoctrine'-TheAtlantic

IsThereaHillaryDoctrine?

Ithasseemedtome,foraslongasIvebeenwatchingHillaryClintonandBarackObamamakeforeignandnational-
securitypolicy,thatthedifferencesinoutlookandapproachbetweenthetwoofthemarefundamentalanddramatic.I
wouldcallthesedifferencesprofound,butIdontwanttobeaccusedofhyperbole.ItisnotjustthatClintonhasabias
towardactionintheinternationalarena,andthatObamaisfarmorehesitant,farmoreaware(tooaware,intheeyesof
critics)ofthedownsideofactionitisthattherearebasicdifferencesinthewaytheyunderstandAmericasroleinthe
world,andthequalitiesthatmakeAmericaexceptional.Theyalsodiffer,tomyeye,intheirunderstandingofAmerican
indispensability,andoftherelationshipbetweenpoweranddiplomacy.

TheonlypersonIknowwhospendsmoretimethinkingaboutthedispositionalandideologicaldifferencesbetween
ObamaandClintonthanIdoisMarkLandler,theNewYorkTimesreporterwhohascoveredtheObamaWhiteHouse
andtheClintonStateDepartmentandwhorecentlypublishedabook,AlterEgos(itsverylongandserioussubtitle:
HillaryClinton,BarackObama,andtheTwilightStruggleOverAmericanPower),thatexploresthesedifferences
throughtheprism,mainly,oftheMiddleEastcrisesthathaveconsumedtheObamaadministration.Landlerhaswrittenan
excellentbook,thedefinitiveexaminationtodateof,amongotherthings,apresidentwhohastriedtoextracttheU.S.
fromtheMiddleEast(withoutmuchsuccess,itgoesalmostwithoutsaying).AlterEgosisalsothemostauthoritative
attempttoexplainObamascomplicatedrelationshipwithhisfirst-termsecretaryofstate,athwartedcompetitor-turned-
stafferwho,ifshewinsthepresidencythisyear,willinheritaworldthatisinsomewaysasmessyastheoneObama
himselfinheritedfromGeorgeW.Bush.

LandlerandIdontseeeye-to-eyeonthedifferencesbetweenObamaandClintonhethinksthatshewillmakeforeign
policyinamorecautiousmannerthanIbelieveshewill.Itendtothink,mostofthetime,atleast,thatherLibya
experiencedidnotdiminishherardorforthearena.OnUkraineandSyria,forinstance,shethinksinmoreovertly
interventionisttermsthandoesObama.InaninterviewIconductedwithClintontwosummersago(onethatdrew
attentionforherimplicitcriticismofObamasunofficialforeign-policyslogan,Dontdostupidshit),sheconvincedme
thatshe,unlikeObama,hastheheartofaColdWarrior.InwhatItooktobeanothershotatObama,shesaid,You
know,whenyouredownonyourself,andwhenyouarehunkeringdownandpullingback,yourenotgoingtomakeany
betterdecisionsthanwhenyouwereaggressively,belligerentlyputtingyourselfforward.Oneissueisthatwedonteven
tellourownstoryverywellthesedays.

Ididnthavemuchdoubtabouttheidentityoftheweinherstatement.Irespondedtoherassertionbysayingsomething
Ibelievedeeply,whichisthatAmerica,inthelastcentury,savedcivilization.Ithought,ItoldClinton,that,defeating
fascismandcommunismisaprettybigdeal.

Sherespondedwithunvarnishedenthusiasm:ThatshowIfeel!Maybethisisold-fashioned.Okay,Ifeelthatthismight
beanold-fashionedidea,butImabouttofindout,inmorewaysthanone.

Obama,ontheotherhand,hasadifferentunderstandingofindispensability(youcanreadaboutObamasforeignpolicy
here,ifyoureinterested).Obamaisalsotoomeasured,tooambivalentandguarded,totoutAmericasachievementsin
anuncomplicatedway.(HewillseldomscoldanothercountryforitsbadbehaviorwithoutfirstassertingthattheU.S.is
farfromperfect,andprovidingexamplesofAmericasimperfections.)
LandlerandI,inarecentconversation,discussedhistheoryofthecase,whichisthatbiography,chronology,and
geographyaredestiny.Nowyoureintrigued,right?Soreadon.Thisisaneditedandcondensedtranscriptofour
conversation.

JeffreyGoldberg:Letsjustgetsomethingoutoftheway.TheBenRhodescontroversy.Putasidealltheextraneous
issuesIdontthinkthattheadministrationevertriedtohidethefact,beforetheelectionoftheostensiblymoderate
[PresidentHassan]Rouhani,thatitwantedtodoadealwithIran.AmIwrong?

MarkLandler:Thispuzzledme.TheWhiteHouseseffortstoopenachanneltoIranthroughtheOmanisbefore
Rouhaniselectionwerewell-knownandhavebeenreportedonbyanumberofjournalists.Inmybook,Idigintothe
earliestrootsoftheOmanchannelbecauseIthinkitrevealsthedivergentapproachesofBarackObama,HillaryClinton,
andespeciallyJohnKerrytowardIran.KerryandObamaweremoreintriguedbythepossibilityofsecrettalksClinton
wasmoreskeptical.IfBenwastryingtomanufactureanarrativethattheIrandiplomacybeganwithHassanRouhani,he
wasntverysuccessful,atleastwithme.

Goldberg:LetsgotoObamaandClinton.Ithinktheyarequitedifferentinthewaytheyapproachtheworld.Some
peoplearearguingtoyouthattheyrenotdifferentatall.Explainwhereyoucomeoutonthis.

Landler:Acommonargumentisthat,onthespectrumofAmericanforeign-policythought,fromtotaldovetototal
neoconservative,theyrebothliberalinternationalists.Theybothbelieveinrules-basedordertheyrebothabout
preservingthepost-WorldWarIIworldthatTrumanandAchesonandothersbuilt.Andtheysitclosetoeachotheronthe
spectrum.Butmyargumentisthatifyoulookattheirinstinctsandreflexesandthewaythattheyareapttorespondtoa
crisis,theyjustcomeatitverydifferently,andthisisinpartbecausetheycomefromverydifferentplacesbothintermsof
timeandgeography.Obamagrewupinthe70s,andhehadthisitinerantexistence,livinginIndonesiaforaperiod

Goldberg:LookingatAmericafromtheoutsidein

Landler:LookingatAmericafromoutsidein,assortofanexpatriatesviewofAmerica

Goldberg:AndHillaryisliterallyinthemiddleofAmericalookingout

Landler:Yes.Shesintheheartland,butalsointhe1950s,withaconservativeNavypettyofficerfather.Andsoshe
viewedAmericaasacountrythatwasaforceforgood,thatAmericaninterventionsgenerallycouldbeapositiverather
thananegativething.AndIthinkObamawasmuchmoreskepticalaboutthat.

Goldberg:Dispositionally,isHillaryclosertoJohnMcCainorBarackObama?

Landler:Inbasicdisposition,JohnMcCain.Thoughinpracticalterms,givenherpragmatism,Ithinkshewouldgovern
morecautiouslythanMcCainwouldgovern.

Goldberg:YouveheardwhatObamasaysaboutLibyawetriedtodoeverythingright,butitdidntwork,andthis
informedhisdecision-makingaboutSyria.ShewasahawkonLibya,butdoyouthinktheresachanceitsomehow
changedherreflexes?

Landler:IfyoulookatthewayshesapproachedSyria,startingoutforward-leaningonaidingtherebelsbackin2012
andcontinuingtofavorano-flyzonetoday,IwouldarguethatshestillbelievesthatLibyacouldendwell

Goldberg:Shethinksthateventoday?

Landler:Eventoday,thatitcouldendwell.MyviewonObamaisandyoumayormaynotagreewiththisthathe
lookedatLibyaanditconfirmedallthepreexistingproblemshehadwithinterventionism.
Goldberg:Heneverreallywantedtodoit.

Landler:Hedidntwanttodoit,andthenhedidit,andthenitturnedoutbadly,andthisconfirmedhisinstincts.

Goldberg:Maybeitturnedoutbadlyinpartbecauseheneverthoughtthatitcouldworkinthefirstplace.

Landler:Ithinkshewouldarguethatourimpulsewasright,anditwasmessierthanitshouldhavebeenforawhole
varietyofreasons,butthatitsstillaworkinprogressandimportantlyitshouldntpreventusfromdoingsimilarthings
indifferentplaces.AndifyoulookatSyria,IbelieveshethinkstheresmoreofaprospectfortheU.S.tomakea
differenceonthegroundthanhedoes.

Goldberg:Sofollowthisthrough.January,2017,letssayshebecomespresident.WhatcouldchangeinU.S.Syria
policy?

Landler:WellIthinkthatsheswanted,fromtheverystart,todosomethingtochangetheequationontheground.And
PresidentObama,Ithink,concludedyoucouldntdoenoughtochangetheequationwithoutamajormilitaryintervention.
Ithinkshewillatleastexplorethepossibilityofano-flyzoneandcreatinghumanitariancorridors.AndIthinkthatshe
wouldbewillingtosubstantiallyexpandthelevelofaidweregivingtorebelgroups[forinstancewith]MANPADS,and
thingslikethat.

Goldberg:Inyourunderstanding,shewasneverconvincedofObamasargumentthatiftheU.S.givesthemMANPADS
andthenoneisusedbysomeonetoshootdownanElAljet

Landler:Ithinksheworriedaboutthatbecauseshewaspartoftheoriginaldebateonwhatkindsofarmsshouldgoto
therebels.AndatthatpointeveryoneagreedthatMANPADSwereoutofthequestionbecauseofthedangerthatyou
talkedabout.ButIjustwondernow,facedwithasituationthatsjustcatastrophicallyworsethanitwasfouryearsago,
[if]shewouldbewillingtotakethatextrastep.IcantsayIknowthat.Imsurmisingthisbasedonthepublicstatements
shesmade.ShecallsitanintensificationandaccelerationofObamasstrategy,butthatcantakeonlysomanyforms.

Goldberg:HowhasheevolvedinhisunderstandingofAmericaninterventionism,andhowhassheevolved?Orhasher
thinkingnotevolved?Didtheyinfluenceeachothersthinkinginanyway?

Landler:Itsdifficulttoweighthesebecauseoneisthecommander-in-chiefandtheotherwasastaffmember.Butifyou
lookatthedebatesthatunfoldedovertime,sheprevailedinthecaseofLibyaanddidnotprevailinthecaseofSyria.So
hedrewsomeverystronglessonsfromLibyaandcouldnotbeswayedwhenitcametoSyria.Inhercase,Ithinkthat,
becauseshesolderandhasalongerframeofreference,alotofthelessonsshelearnedgobackmuchfurtherthanhis.I
think,forexample,whenshetalksaboutSyria,shecantalkaboutaKosovoprecedentinamuchmorecomfortableway
thanhedoes.SohemayhaveevolvedmorebutbecausehewasstartingwithIraq,andcameinwithrelativelylittle
experienceasaforeignpolicypractitioneroreventhinker,whereasshehadalreadyhad15or20yearsofeyewitness
experiencewithwhichtowork.WhenshethoughtaboutSyria,shedidntjustthinkaboutIraq,shethoughtalotaboutthe
Balkans.IdontknowhowmuchPresidentObamathoughtabouttheBalkanswhenhethoughtaboutanyofthe
interventionsduringhispresidency.

Goldberg:YouquoteJakeSullivan[Clintonsforeign-policyadviser]towardtheendofthebooksayingthatthe2008
Hillaryforeign-policymuscularitydidntworkforherthen,butthat[it]wouldworkbetternow,inthiscampaign.Doyou
thinkthatheisrightaboutthat?OrisObamaactuallyintunewiththeAmericanpeopleandwheretheyareonmattersof
foreignengagementmorethanHillary?IsuspectyouhighlightedthatJakequotebecauseyouprobablyhaveyourdoubts
aboutit.

Landler:Well,Ido.AndinfactIsaidintheepiloguethatitremainstobeseenwhetherhermoodmatchestheAmerican
publicorwhetherherinstinctsmatchtheAmericanpublic.JakewasspeakingintheaftermathoftheParisandSan
Bernardinoattacks.Atthatmoment,therewasnewpollingdataoutfromCNNandfromothersthatshowedforthefirst
timeinalongtimethatamajorityofAmericansfavoredsendinggroundtroopstoIraqandSyria.AndJakewassaying
thatinthatveryfraughtmomenttherewasarethinkingunderway.

Goldberg:Butthosemomentsareveryephemeral.

Landler:Yes,thesemomentsarefleeting.Thefurtherawayyougetfromanynational-securitycrisis,themoreAmericans
tendtofallbackintotheirpreexistingpatterns.SoImnotatallpersuaded.Andfurthermore,ifyoulistencarefullytoa
guylikeTrumpinthatforeign-policyspeechhegaverecently,Idontthinkhespersuaded.Imean,thatspeech,forallits
contradictionsandincoherence,madeaninterestingpoint,whichwas:Wereoutofthenation-buildingbusiness,andIm
notlookingtogetusintoanewwar.

Goldberg:Well,hetalkedasifObamahadbeeninthenation-buildingbusiness,whichisabsurd.

Landler:Whichisnonsense.ButwhatImsayingis:Obamaclearlyfeelsthathehashisfingeronthepulseofwhere
Americansareonthisissue.Andthatswhyhessereneanddoesntmindthumbinghisnoseattheforeign-policy
establishment,becausehethinkstheyretheonesthatareoutofstep,nothim.

Goldberg:Doyouagree?

Landler:Ithinkthathesbeenprettygoodatgaugingpublicopiniononthis.Theinterestinglargerquestionthat[the
dispositionallyinterventionisthistorian]BobKaganandIinterviewedBobKaganforthebookraisedisthatin2008
whenObamawaselected,thiscountrywaslivingonstrategicfumes,thatalloftheindispensiblenationrhetoricjustno
longerappealedtopeopleanymore.AndObamacorrectlytappedintothat.Americanswerejustexhaustedandnolonger
willing.

Goldberg:Thewhole,WereAmerica,wemustdothis,argumentnolonghasmuchsway.

Landler:Ithinkthatsright.ObamabelievesAmericadoeshavetoactwhenvitalnationalinterestsareinplay.Buthe
definesvitalnationalinterestsmuchmorenarrowlythanalotoftheforeign-policyestablishment.Oneofthethingsinmy
bookthatIthoughtwasatellingmomentwasadinnerhehadwithformerofficialsandforeign-policyexperts.Theywere
talkingaboutUkraine,andObamaasked,WillsomeonepleasetellmewhatAmericasvitalnationalinterestisin
Ukraine?And[BrookingsInstitutionPresident]StrobeTalbottwasjustsortofslack-jawed.Tosomeonelikehim,who
representstheforeign-policyestablishment,theideathattheU.S.wouldntimmediatelyrushtothedefenseofaformer
Sovietsatelliteisunthinkable.ButObamawasmerelypointingouttheobvious,whichwasthatourtradewithUkraineis
miniscule,andUkrainemeanssomuchmoretoPutinandRussiathanitdoestousthatRussiawoulddouble-downand
triple-downonanythingwedid.

Goldberg:Itswhathetoldmecoreintereststrumpperipheralinterests,andletsnotmakebelieveotherwise.

Landler:Andletsbewillingtowalkaway.

Goldberg:ButwouldHillaryClintoneversaythat?

Landler:Shewouldneversayitoutloud.Shemightsayitquietly.Butshewouldalso,Ithink,instinctively,wanttodo
moretopreventthatoutcome.Andthatswhyshestoldherfriendsshewouldsupportlethaldefensiveweaponstothe
Ukrainianarmy.Andthatis,bytheway,apositionthatmanyof[Obamas]advisersalsohad.

Goldberg:IagreewithyouthatherinstinctsaremoreMcCainishthanObamaish,butthequestionis,howconstrained
willshebeaspresidentbyrecentAmericanhistory,therecenthistoryofAmericaninterventions?
Landler:Well,itstherightquestiontoask.Peoplelovetopointoutsixmonthsintoanynewpresidencythisalways
happensthedegreeofcontinuitywiththeprecedingpresident.WithPresidentObama,itwasthefactthathelikedusing
dronesjustasBushlikedusingdrones.WithClinton,itmayturnoutthat,justasObamadidntlikemessyforeign
engagements,wellseesixmonthsintoherpresidencythatshesnotexactlymarchingintoothercountries.

Goldberg:AlthoughifshedidactuallyuptheanteinSyria,ormaybeinaplacelikeUkraine,itcouldbeinterpretedasa
decisivebreak.

Landler:Yes,thatcouldbetrue.And,again,itshardformetopredictbecauseshesasituationalist,andshellweigh
eachoneofthesethingsseparately.Idontthinkshellcomeinondayonewiththeideathatweneedtoripupthe
Obamaplaybook.ThisisnotlikeObamacominginafterBushandsayingthatthisisanewera,andwearenowmending
fencesandwindingdownwars.Shescertainlynotgoingtocomeinanddothat.Iwonder,though,whethershewillcome
inwithamoreenergeticpro-engagementvibethanPresidentObamahashad.

Goldberg:Engagementwith?

Landler:Allkindsofpeople.Imean,forexample,IthinkshelltrytohaveadifferentrelationshipwithIsrael.Wecanget
intothattoo.Itsinaseparatecategory,though.

Goldberg:Wellitsaseparatecategorybecauseitsanissuethatisadomesticpolitics[one]aswell.Myassumptionis
that,ifshebecomespresident,thatinMarchof2017shesgoingonwhatyoucouldcallaStabilizationTour,a10-capital
tour,fromSeoulandTokyo,toAbuDhabiandRiyadh,andJerusalem,and

Landler:AndmaybeastopinKiev,whileshesatit.

Goldberg:Goodpoint.AndWarsaw,andRiga,andParisandLondon,forthatmatter.Justtosayheresmyphone
number,werecool,dontworry,Imnotgoingtobecriticizingyouinpublic,Imnotgoingtocallyouafreeriderin
public.Butthatsanadjustment,acalibration,thatsnotabreakindoctrine.IsthereaHillaryClintonDoctrine,otherthan
beingasituationist?

Landler:Idontthinktheresacleardoctrine,justasthereisntonewithObama.Ithoughtitwasinterestingthat,inmy
research,theonetimeIfoundevidencethatherpeoplewerethinkingaboutaDoctrine,acapital-DDoctrine,wasin
Libya.AfterthecollapseofQaddafi,therewassometalkwithinhercircleabouthowshewasgoingtogetoutinfrontof
thisandgetcreditforit.AndJakeSullivansaidinanemailtoher,Werewritinganop-edandweshouldthink
ambitiouslyalongthelinesofaClintonDoctrine.AndIwonderedbythatwhetherhemeantaformofaggressive
engagement,interventionwhennecessary,butonethatinvolvedworkingwithawidevarietyofactors.Becauseifyou
remember,thewholehallmarkoftheLibyapolicywas,wehavetheArabLeagueonboard,wehavetheEuropeanson
board.Andshewastheonethatputallthattogether.Assecretaryofstate,shedidallthosetrips,andmadeallthose
phonecalls,andhadallthosemeetings.Sotheyweregivingher,internally,agreatdealofcreditforthecoalition.Libya
couldhavebeenabigpartofherdoctrine.

Goldberg:DoyouthinksheresentsObamaforlosinginterestinLibya,andbeinginsufficientlycommitted?Andvice
versa,maybe?DoyouthinkObamaresentsHillaryandtheotherpeople,fromTonyBlinkenandBenRhodesto
SamanthaPowerandGayleSmith,whopushedhimintosomethinghedidntwanttodo?

Landler:IdontthinktherewaseverthatmuchevidencethathewasveryengagedaftertheNATOoperationended.
Andfrankly,giventheownershipthatshehadoverthepolicy,itwasreallymoreuptohertostayengaged.AndIaskthe
questionofwhethershedisengaged.Aftertheinitialperiod,whenthingslookedliketheywereunfoldinginafairly
optimisticway,IalwaysthoughtitwascuriousthatshehadnoemailcontactwithAmbassadorStevens.[ChrisStevens
wastheAmericanambassadortoLibya,whowaskilledintheattackonthediplomaticoutpostinBenghaziinSeptember
2012.]

Goldberg:Thatwasveryinterestingmomentinyourbook.Ididntrealizethatshewasntincommunicationwithhim,
givenwherehewasposted.

Landler:Ithoughtthatthiswascurious.Somyquestionis,wassheherselfsomewhatdistracted,andhadshemovedon
tothenextchallenge?IfImPresidentObamaandImlookingatthis,Imthinking,Well,yougotmeintothis,soyou
shouldkeepbearingdownonit.

Goldberg:ShewasnttalkingtoStevens,theambassador,aboutLibya,butasyoupointoutinthebook,shewastalking
tosomeoneelsequiteabitaboutLibya,SidneyBlumenthal.IsSidneyBlumenthalgoingtohaveaprominentforeign-
policyroleinhernextadministration?

Landler:Idontknowifhewouldhaveaformalrole,butitscleartomethataformaltitledoesntmatter.Ifhedoesnt
haveaformalrole,hellcontinuetohavetheinformalrolethathehadthroughouthertermassecretary.Andthatrole,its
clearfromlookingattheemailsthathavebeenreleased,wasextraordinarilywide-ranging.Notjustthepoliticaladvicehe
wasgivingherandthebureaucraticadvicehewasgivingher,buttheothervoiceshewasbringingtothetable.

Goldberg:AndhewasactinglikeherintelligenceofficerforLibya.

Landler:Right,alotofthoseLibyaemailsfromBlumenthalwereactuallydraftedbythisshadowyCIAguy,Tyler
Drumheller,buthewasnttheonlyperson.Blumenthalwouldspendalotoftimebringingothervoicestoherattention,
andonotherissuesthathereallycaredabout.

Goldberg:Well,hewouldbefunnelingaconstantstreamofeitheranti-Israel,oranti-Netanyahu,commentary.Doyou
thinkthismeansanythingaboutthewayshewouldactuallymanagethisfile?Imean,peoplelikeus,wemakethis
assumptionthatshewould,toborrowaword,resetrelationswithNetanyahu,assuminghesstillprimeminister.And
whenIlastspoketoheraboutthisgeneralissue,shewassoundingveryhawkish,morehawkishobviouslythanObama.
Ontheotherhand,SidneyBlumenthal,Anne-MarieSlaughter,TomPickering,theyresendingherthisconstantstreamof
prettyhardcoreanti-Israelmaterial,sofaraswecanseefromthereleasedemails.Doyouthinkshedmoveleftonthis
issueifshebecamepresident?

Landler:IthinkinthiscasethatshedbemoreinclinedtotakeherleadfromBillClintonthanfromSidneyBlumenthal.

Goldberg:AndHaimSaban?

Landler:AndHaimSaban,obviously.IdosubscribetotheideathatshewouldseedrawingclosetoIsrael,closerto
Israel,asavaluablethingtodoforavarietyofreasons.Thisdoesntmean,bytheway,thattherewouldntbemore
tension,andevenantagonism,becauseshegaveaninterviewrecentlyinwhichshesaidthatanagreementbetweenthe
IsraelisandthePalestinianswouldstillbeoneofhertoppriorities.Andifshesseriousaboutpursuingthat,itshardto
pursuethatfull-scalewithoutantagonizingthecurrentIsraeligovernment.

Goldberg:MuchofyourbookisaboutMiddleEasterncatastrophes.ButyoudealextensivelywiththepivottoAsia.Do
youthinkthatHillaryClintonwillfigureoutawayinawaythatObamahasnttoputtheMiddleEastinabox,sothat
shecanfocusonotherthings?Doyouthinkshellsucceedincontrollingthis,wherehehasfailed?

Landler:ThelastfiveorsixpresidentshavefailedtoputtheMiddleEastinabox.Youknow,itsimpossibletopredict
thefuture,butIhaveasinkingfeelingthattheMiddleEastwilloccupythesamecentralpositioninthenextpresidencythat
itdidinthisone.Justlookatthesituationonthegroundtoday.TheSyrianconflictislikelytogetworsebeforeitgets
better.WiththeIrannucleardeal,willitplayadestabilizingrole,asthecriticsbelieve?Ordoesitactuallyrightthebalance
intheregionandproduceakindofstabilitythecoldpeacethatPresidentObamahopesfor?
Goldberg:Sothequestionis:IraninrecentweekshasdonevariousprovocativethingstheincidentwiththeNavy,
ballistic-missiletesting,therecalcitrantstatementsmadebythesupremeleader.Theresalsoanarrativedevelopingthat
thisadministrationwilldoanythingitcantopreservetheletterofthedeal,ifnotthespiritofthedeal.Doyouthinkthat
HillarywillhaveanewsetofpoliciesinplacethatwillmeanlesstoleranceforIranianshenanigans?

Landler:Ithinkthatshesgoingtopositionherselfastheenforcerofthisdeal,andifyougobackandlookattherole
shesplayedinIraniandiplomacythroughout,shesalmostalwaysplayedthebadcop.Shestheonewhoputtogetherthe
sanctionscoalition.

Goldberg:Doyoucreditherwithdoingmoreworkonthatthananyoneelse?

Landler:Yes,Ithinkso.[NationalSecurityAdvisor]SusanRicedidalotattheU.N.PresidentObamadidalotwiththe
Russians.ButHillarywas,withtheChineseinparticular,criticalinputtingthattogether.Ifyougobacktotheearliestdays
oftheIrannegotiation,whenitwasstillasecretchannelinOman,Hillarywasfarmoredubious,andmuchmorereluctant
togetpulledintoit.Anditwas,infact,JohnKerryandObamawhowerereallyleaningintoit.AndsoIdothinkshe
wouldcomeinandprobablywanttoputsomenewprogramsinplace,maybetherewouldbeawillingnesstoactmore
swiftlyonsanctionsagainstIranincaseofotherviolations,ballisticmissiles,forinstance,orinassemblingcoalitionof
countriestotrytostymieIran.AndIthinkthatunlikePresidentObama,who,Ibelieve,whateverhesaidpublicly,
privatelyhopedthatthedealwouldbeatransformationalevent,Idontthinkshehasanyillusionsaboutthat.Ithinkshe
assumesthatwecontinuetohavethisfundamentallyantagonisticrelationshipwithIran.

Goldberg:Acounterfactual:IfClintonhadstayedonforasecondtermassecretaryofstate,wouldwehaveanIrandeal
now?

Landler:Itsinteresting.Ididntposethatcounterfactualquestion,Iaskthequestionofwhether,ifHillaryClinton,had
beenelectedin2008insteadofObama,wouldtherehavebeenadeal?AndIthinkthatitspossibletoarguethatthere
wouldnthavebeen.

OneoftheinterestingthingsthatcameoutofmyreportingisthatshewouldhavefavoredhittingtheIranianswithnew
sanctionsafterHassanRouhaniwaselectedpresident.ThiswastheMenendez-Kirklegislation,which,ifyourecall,
PresidentObamamaneuvereddesperatelytopreventtheSenatefrompassing,becausehisviewwasthatitwouldblow
upthenegotiations.IknowthatHillarybecauseshestoldpeoplethiswouldhavefavoredsqueezingthem.Inthe
wordsofoneofheraides,Squeezethemagainandseewhathappens.Remember,thepresidentwastheonepushing
thedeal,andHillaryClintonwasnothingifnotaloyalimplementerofherbossspolicy.Soiftheorderonthetablewasto
getthisdealdone,Ithinkitspossibleshewouldhavegottenitdoneassecretaryofstate.Thequestioniswhethershe
wouldhavepursueditaspresident,andthereIhavemydoubts.

Goldberg:Ifshebecomespresident,whodoyouthinkwouldbehermostimportantforeign-policyadvisers,andsources
ofideas?

Landler:Yes,well,BillClintonisnumberone.Andthenshellhaveverytrustedaides,JakeSullivanatthetopofthatlist.
Andthenshehasthisextremelywide,heterodoxcircleofcontactsthatshellbepullinginformationfrom.Andthatll
includeBobKagan,itllincludeSidBlumenthal,itllincludeStrobeTalbott,itllinclude[formerU.S.ambassadorto
Israel]MartinIndyk.AndIthinkyouseesomesurprisingnamesandfaces.AnotherdifferencewithObamaisthatshesa
realspongeforinformationlikeherhusband.Forheritsanacquiredskill,forherhusbanditcamenaturally.Ithink
PresidentObamawasmorelikelytothinkthroughissueshimself,andreadalot,asopposedtocastinganextremelywide
net.Ithinkinhercase,shesmoreapttotalktoRepublicans.IthinkshellconsultJohnMcCain.Iwritealotabout,in
thisbook,aboutGeneralJackKeane,whosaprettyhardlineretiredfour-stargeneral.
Goldberg:Shelikesthenail-eatinggenerals,likeJimMattis.Theseguysarealsointernationalists,andstrongalliance
guys.IssheoutofstepwiththemoodoftheAmericanpeople,who,Imtold,atleast,dontwanttobeinvolvedwith
verymuchinternationally?

Landler:ImnotsureIdisagreewithyou.ImeanIdontthinkitstheperfectmomentforsomeonewhoisashawkishas
Ibelievesheis.ButyoualsohavetoentertainthedarkpossibilitythattherecouldbeaterroristattackonAmericansoil,
andthen,overnight,thesituationisdramaticallytransformed.

Goldberg:Well,ifthathappens,Trumphasaverygoodchanceofbecomingpresident,giventhenationalmood.Butlets
talkaboutTrump.Inhisrecentforeign-policyspeech,heattackedObamafromtherightandHillaryfromtheleft.What
wouldyouimaginehislinegoingforwardisgoingtobeonHillarythatshesawarmonger,orthatshesweakon
terrorism,orbothatthesametime?

Landler:Itwillprobablybesomecombination.

Goldberg:Hesnotboundbytherulesofconsistency,obviously.

Landler:WhatinterestedmeaboutthatspeechisthattherewerealsoechoesofObamainit.Imean,whenhetalks
aboutresettingrelationshipswithRussiaokay,well,wetriedthatoncebefore.Andthefree-riderthingisverymuch
there,aswasthecontemptfortheforeign-policyestablishment.WheredidIhearthatbefore?InaJeffGoldberg
interview.Imean,soIthinkthattheoddthingaboutTrumpis,hewillattackherfromtherightandhellhangtheIraqWar
votearoundherneck.Herestheironyitseightyearslaterandacompletelydifferentpoliticalfigureisgoingtohang
Iraqaroundherneck,aRepublicanthistime,justasObamadideightyearsago.Andthen,onthethingsthatwentwrong
overthepasteightyears,hecanjustlabelthatanObama-Clintonpolicywhetheritwentwrongforlackofdoing
enoughorwhetheritwentwrongforactingrecklesslyandusingpoorjudgment.

Goldberg:Thisiswhyoneofthemostinterestingquestionstomeiswhereshecomesdownontheintervention
continuum.Iguessthebasicquestionaboutherandneitherofusknowthisis,doesshestillhavethePeopleare
dyingandwemustdosomethingimpulse?

Landler:Inthecategoryofformativeexperiences,IthinkthatRwandaandtheSrebrenicaepisodesareonesthatshe
remembersvividly,andwhileshemaynotsubscribetoeverytenetoftheconceptofResponsibilitytoProtect,thats
whereherinstinctsaregoingtobe.

Goldberg:Goingbacktowhatwewerefirsttalkingabout,asignaldifferencebetweenObamaandClintonisthatshe
remembersRwandaandSrebrenicaandtheFirstIraqWar,thesuccessfulGulfWar,andObamahasnofirsthand
experienceoftheseevents.

Landler:OneoftheargumentsthatpeoplehavemadeaboutObamaisthathesatouttheformativeexperiencesfor
Democratsinwhichinterventionsworkedwell,andasaresulthisframeofreferenceisVietnamandGeorgeW.Bushs
Iraq.Andinhercase,thoughshecameofageduringVietnam,shethensawRwanda,Srebrenica,andKosovo.That
couldmakeforahugedifferenceinthewayyouthinkaboutintervention.Look,oneoftheconclusionsPresidentObama
drewwasthatwecantaffordthesethings,itsexhausting,andtheAmericanpeoplewonttolerateitanymore.Andhe
hadalotofreasontobelievehewasright.Imean,hedefeatedavastlybetter-known,better-fundedDemocratic
opponentinpartonthosegrounds,bylashinghertoanunpopularwar.Andthenwentontowinthegeneralelection
againstawarhero.

Goldberg:Itsinteresting,inordinarytimes,acandidatewhoisseenasmorerobustlyanti-Russianshouldhaveafairly
easytimeconvincingtheAmericanpeopleofherposition.ButshemightberunningagainstaRepublicannomineewhois
moresympathetictothecurrentRussianleaderthantheDemocraticnominee.Soeverythingsupsidedown.
Landler:Ifyougobacksixoreightmonths,andlookatwhoHillaryspeoplethoughttheymightbemeetinginageneral
election,IthinktheyprobablyfigureditwouldbeMarcoRubio,whohadneoconideasbutnotverymuchexperience.
Andshewouldhavebeenabletowinthatdebatefairlyeasilyonqualificationsgroundsandexperiencegrounds,andthis
wouldnothavebeenadifficultdebateforhertowin.

Goldberg:TheywerepreparingtorunagainstaRepublicanfromtheleftonthissetofquestions,andnowtheyare
runningagainstaRepublicanwhoishimselfrunningagainstherfromtheleftonforeign-policyandnational-securityissues.

Landler:Fromtherightandtheleft,atthesametime.

Goldberg:Weirdtimes.

Landler:Yep.

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Subject:TimothySNYDER,"TheWARSofVladimirPUTIN,"NewYorkReviewofBooks,nybooks.com,6/9issue
To:"howard@jamestown.org"<howard@jamestown.org>
Cc:"paul.goble@gmail.com"<paul.goble@gmail.com>,"waz2102@caa.columbia.edu"<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

TimothySNYDER,"TheWARSofVladimirPUTIN,"NewYorkReviewofBooks,nybooks.com,6/9issue

ReviewofaPolishandaGermanbookonRussiasincursionsintoUkraineandofPeterPomerantsevsNothingIsTrueandEverythingIsPossible

And:PUTINSCYBERWAR:RussiasStatecraftintheFifthDomain,ReportbyTheHenryJacksonSociety,http://relayto.com/the-henry-jackslon-society/YDD2kg11

And:BrianWHITMORE,UkrainesNEWHOPE[NadiaSavchenko],http://www.rferl.org/content/urkaines-new-hope/27757341.html

NadiaSavchenkocouldandIstresscouldjustturnouttobeUkrainesVaclavHavel,oritsLechWalesa,oritsNelsonMandela.

And:UkraineBANSGORBACHEVover[his]supportforCRIMEAANNEXATION,reuters.com,5/26
UkrainehasbannedformerSovietleaderMikhailGorbachevfromentryforthenextfiveyearsoverhissupportforRussiasseizureofCrimea

And:SAVCHENKOtojoinRadasnationalsecurityanddefensecommittee,unian.info,5/26

And:Putinhasremovedthehead[GeneralEvgeniiMUROV]oftheFederalProtectionService[FSO],http://www.newsru.com/russia/26may2016/fso_print,html

And:JamesSHERR(ChathamHouse),Takingwarseriously:Russia-NATOshowdownnolongerjustfiction,themoscowtimes.com,5/26

And:ElectionsPutin-style:Scandalsinsteadofprimaries,oppositionbeingremovedfromtheprimariesatthewhimoftheauthorities,http://www.novayagazeta.ru/politics/73227.html?print=1

And:RBCcorrespondentreports[BALLOTBOX]STUFFINGviolationsatUnitedRussiapartyprimaries,meduza.io,5/23[inEnglish]

And:OnballotboxSTUFFINGinMurmansk:http://www.novayagazeta.ru/politics/73211.html?print=1

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:Deychak,Orest<Orest.Deychak@mail.house.gov>
Date:Thu,May26,2016at12:02PM
Subject:Ukraine:HC,USOSCE,NYT,WP(2),NYRB
To:"Deychak,Orest"<Orest.Deychak@mail.house.gov>

Butfirst,incaseyoumissedit:

HELSINKICOMMISSIONCHAIR,CO-CHAIRWELCOMESAVCHENKORELEASE
URGERUSSIATOCOMPLYWITHMINSKAGREEMENTS

WASHINGTONFollowingtodaysreleaseofUkrainianfighterpilotNadiyaSavchenkofromprisoninRussia,RepresentativeChrisSmith(NJ-04),ChairmanoftheCommissiononSecurityandCooperationinEurope,andSenatorRogerWicker(MS),Co-
ChairmanoftheCommission,issuedthefollowingstatement:

WewelcomeNadiyaslong-overduerelease,butwemustnotforgetaboutotherUkrainiancitizensunjustlyimprisonedinRussia.WemustalsorememberthatRussiastilloccupiesCrimeaandcontinuesitsaggressionineasternUkraine,
bringingmiseryandsufferingtomillionsofUkrainians.

RussiashouldhonortheMinskagreementswhichitviolateswithimpunityifthereistobepeacefulresolutiontotheconflict.Aboveall,RussianeedstogetoutofUkraine.

LastSeptember,theHousepassedaresolutioncallingforSavchenkosrelease,whichwasstrengthenedbyChairmanSmithsamendmentcallingfortheimpositionofpersonalsanctionsagainstindividualsresponsiblefortheimprisonmentofSavchenkoandother
UkrainiancitizensillegallyincarceratedinRussia.

AresolutionsponsoredbyCo-ChairmanWickerandHelsinkiCommissionRankingSenateCommissionerBenCardin(MD)callingforherreleasepassedtheSenateinFebruary2015.

###

TheCommissiononSecurityandCooperationinEurope,alsoknownastheU.S.HelsinkiCommission,isanindependentagencyoftheFederalGovernmentchargedwithmonitoringcompliancewiththeHelsinkiAccordsandadvancing
comprehensivesecuritythroughpromotionofhumanrights,democracy,andeconomic,environmentalandmilitarycooperationin57countries.TheCommissionconsistsofninemembersfromtheU.S.Senate,ninefromtheHouseof
Representatives,andonemembereachfromtheDepartmentsofState,Defense,andCommerce.

TodayinVienna:

USMissiontotheOSCE(2)
OntheReturnofNadiyaSavchenkotoUkraine|StatementtothePC

http://osce.usmission.gov/return-nadiya-savchenko-ukraine-statement-pc/

TheUnitedStateswarmlywelcomesNadiyaSavchenkosreleaseandreturntoUkraine.Nearlytwoyearsago,shewasabductedineasternUkraineandsmuggledagainstherwillintoRussia.Ms.Savchenkoenduredrelentlessinterrogations,solitaryconfinement,
andforcedpsychiatricevaluation.Throughitall,sheremainedsteadfast,resilient,andloyaltohercountry.

ThereturnofMs.Savchenkoshouldnowbefollowedbythereleaseofallhostagesandunlawfullydetainedpersons,includingOlegSentsov,GennadyAfanasiev,OleksanderKolchenko,YuriSoloshenko,StansilavKlikh,andMykolaKarpyuk,asRussiacommitted
todoundertheMinskagreements.WeencourageRussiatotakefurtherstepstocompleteimplementationofitsMinskcommitments,includingareal,comprehensive,andsustainedceasefireineasternUkrainefullaccessfortheOSCEtotheareaaffectedbythe
conflictelectionsunderUkrainianlawthatmeetOSCEstandardsandaremonitoredbytheOSCEOfficeforDemocraticInstitutionsandHumanRightsthewithdrawalofforeignforcesandequipmentandthereturntoUkraineoffullcontroloveritsinternational
border.

Thankyou,Mr.Chair.

AsdeliveredbyAmbassadorDanielB.BaertothePermanentCouncil,Vienna

USMissiontotheOSCE
http://osce.usmission.gov/russias-ongoing-violations-ukraine-statement-pc-4-2/

OnRussiasOngoingViolationsinUkraine|StatementtothePC

May26,2016

DespiteeffortstobuildontheEasterceasefirerecommitmentandcreateabettersecurityenvironment,thisweekbeganwiththehighestcasualtiesincurredsinceAugustoflastyear.ThesecurityzoneineasternUkrainecontinuestobedefinedbytensionand
instability,asSpecialMonitoringMission(SMM)DeputyChiefMonitorAlexanderHugsaidthisweek.

CombinedRussian-separatistforcesincreasedtheirattackswhilesimultaneouslyobstructingSMMmonitors,preventingthemfromaccountingforthoseceasefireviolations.CoordinatedattacksbycombinedRussian-separatistforcesonMay24resultedinthe
heaviestlossessufferedbyUkrainianforcesinasingledaythisyear:sevenkilledandninewounded.

Russiacontinuestoarm,train,andfightalongsideseparatistforces,andthesecurityzoneremainsawashinheavyweapons,tanks,armoredpersonnelcarriers,andanti-aircraftguns.Theseweaponsappearinpartoftheconflictzoneoneday,vanishthenext,andthen
reappearsomewhereelse,underminingconfidencebetweenthesidesandeffortstowardasustainableceasefireandMinskimplementation.OnMay15alone,theSMMcounted81tanksonseparatist-heldterritory.Regrettably,combinedRussian-separatistforces
havenothesitatedtoputtheseweaponstouse,poundingresidentialareasofAvdiivkawithmortarsandartilleryfireonMay21and22,killingtwoUkrainiansoldiers,woundingeightothers,anddamagingordestroyingsixhomes.Theseattackswerepremeditated
andcameshortlyaftercombinedRussian-separatistforcesdisconnectedtheSMMsstaticobservationcamerasinDonetsk,camerastheyhadpromisedtheSMMcouldoperatewithoutinterference.

Colleagues,thePermanentCouncilhasoftenheardtheRussianFederationcallforintensivemonitoringofhotspots.WecallonRussiatodirecttheseparatistsitbackstoimmediatelyallowtheSMMfullaccesstotheareasundertheircontrolandtorestoreits
cameras,whichareessentialtomonitoringhotspotsthataretoodangerousformonitorstopatrol.

ItisessentialthatRussiaandtheseparatistsagreetoadisengagementplan,whichcanthenbeendorsedbytheTrilateralContactGroupasquicklyaspossible.Manyoftheproposedlocationsfordisengagementareatcrossingpointsonthelineofcontact.Inthis
regard,wenotethattheGovernmentofUkrainehasalreadytakenstepsthatwillsupportdisengagementefforts.Inkeepingwithitsagreementtoopenupmorecrossingpoints,Ukrainehasclearedminesandconstructedpropercrossingfacilitiesatitscheckpointin
Zolote.Theseparatistshavenotupheldtheircommitmentsneithertoallowcivilianstocrossnortopullbacktheheavyweaponsthatputlivesatrisk.Civiliansaresubjectedtokilometers-longlines,andareexposedtotheever-presentriskofgettingcaughtin
crossfire.We,therefore,underscoretheneedforanagreementondisengagementnotonlytostabilizetheceasefire,buttoimprovethelivesofpeoplelivingonbothsidesofthecontactline.

Colleagues,overthelastfewmonthsfreshevidencehascometolightofRussiascontinuedsupplyofsophisticatedmilitaryequipmenttotheseparatistsinclearcontraventionofmeasure10oftheMinskPackageofMeasures.ASMMUAVrecentlytookaphoto
ofaRussianOrlan-10UAVflyingfromthedirectionofseparatist-heldpartsofDonetsk.TheOrlan-10isaRussiansystemitisnotcommerciallyavailableandcanonlybeflownbytrainedoperators.TheUkrainianmilitaryreportedthatanarmedUAVdropped
munitionsonUkrainiansoldiersonMay18.TheSMMonceagainfoundevidenceofRussianjammingequipment,anIVOMineralnyantenna,onseparatist-heldterritoryonApril12.Thepresenceofsophisticatedmilitarytechnologyonthebattlefieldexposesthe
fallacyofRussiascontentionthatthisisaninternalconflictitisRussiawhichinstigatedthisconflict,Russiawhichhasfueledit,andRussiawhichmustnowacttoendit.

Resolvingthisconflictrequiresthereturnofseparatist-controlledareasofDonetskandLuhansktoUkrainiancontrol.OnthistheMinskagreementsarecrystalclear.WethereforecondemnthedecisionbytheRussianFederationtoacceptphonyseparatist
passportsasvalidforcrossingbetweenUkraineandtheRussianFederation.

InRussia-occupiedCrimea,Russiacontinuestoviolatetherightsofthosewhoopposetheoccupation,includingmembersofreligiousandethnicminoritiesindefianceofOSCEprinciplesandcommitments.RussianauthoritieshaveshutdownCrimeanTatarmedia.
Russianforceshaveraidedhomesandmosques,andharassedandimprisonedCrimeanTataractivists,someofwhomhavedisappearedorbeenkilled.HavingbannedtheMejlisthelegal,legitimaterepresentativebodyoftheCrimeanTatarpeopleRussian
authoritieshaveacceleratedacrackdownonitsleadership.OnMay12,theDeputyChairmanoftheCrimeanTatarMejlis,IlmiUmerov,wasarrested,alongwiththreeothers.WeremindtheRussianFederationthatsanctionsrelatedtoitsoccupationofCrimeawill
remaininplaceuntiltheoccupationends.AndwejointheEUinmanytimesreaffirmingthatsanctionsimposedupontheRussianFederationforitsaggressionineasternUkrainewillalsoremaininplaceuntilRussiafullyimplementsitsMinskcommitments.

Thankyou,Mr.Chair.

AsdeliveredbyAmbassadorDanielB.BaertothePermanentCouncil,Vienna

Note:VariationsofWPandNYTarticlesIsentoutyesterdayonthereleaseofNadiyaSavchenkoappearinprinteditionsofthosepaperstoday.

TheNewYorkTimes
GermanForeignMinisterSteinmeierSaysExtendingRussiaSanctionsMoreDifficult

ByREUTERSMAY26,2016,6:30A.M.E.D.T.

Continuereadingthemainstory

VILNIUSAnagreementonrenewingsanctionsagainstRussiawhentheyrunoutonJuly31hasbecomemoredifficultwithgrowingoppositionfromsomeEUcountries,Germany'sforeignministersaidonThursday.

EuropeanUnioneconomicsanctionsagainstRussiawereintroducedforoneyearinJuly2014inresponsetoitsactionsinUkraineandtwiceextendedin2015.

"WeareawarethatresistanceintheEUtoextendingthesanctionstowardsRussiahasincreased,"Frank-WalterSteinmeierwasquotedbyLithuania'sBNSnewsagencysayinginaninterview.

"Itwillbemoredifficultthanitwaslastyeartofindacommonpositiononthisissue."

GermanywantstokeepthesanctionsuntiltheMinskpeaceaccordsbetweenRussiaandUkraineareimplemented,Steinmeiersaid.

"Onethingisforsure.WecannotignoreRussia'sannexationofCrimeainviolationofinternationallawandthedestabilisationofEasternUkraine,"hesaid.

The28-strongEUneedsunanimitytokeepthesanctionsinplaceandthebloc'sunityhasbeenincreasinglytestedonthat.

LastweekdiplomatsandofficialstoldReuterstheEUwasstillontracktorenewthem,thoughanextensioncouldbecontestedandonlyshort-term.

Italy,Greece,Cyprus,HungaryandBulgariaareamongEUstatesscepticalthatsanctionsshouldbeextended,diplomatssaid,facingoffagainstBritain,Sweden,PolandandtheBalticstates.

(ReportingByAndriusSytasEditingbyMarkJohn)
 TheWashingtonPost/AP

GorbachevbarredfromvisitingUkraineforCrimearemarks

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/gorbachev-barred-from-visiting-ukraine-for-crimea-remarks/2016/05/26/c3aede60-2348-11e6-b944-52f7b1793dae_story.html

May26at9:50AM

MOSCOWTheUkrainianintelligenceagencySBUsaysithasbarredthelastleaderoftheSovietUnion,MikhailGorbachev,fromvisitingUkraineforthenextfiveyears.

TheSBUsaidinastatementThursdaythatthiswasareactiontoGorbachevspubliccondoningofthe2014RussianannexationofCrimea.

TheSundayTimesquoted85-yearoldGorbachevassayingthathewouldhaveactedthesamewayasRussianPresidentVladimirPutinifhehadfoundhimselfinasimilarsituation.

GorbachevoversawthecollapseoftheSovietUnionin1991andhasbeenlaudedworldwideforencouragingthereunificationofGermanyandlargelyallowingformerSovietsatellitesineasternEuropetobreakawayfromMoscowsorbit.

Andforallofyoucheese-eatersoutthere.And,yes,thisisUkrainerelated:

TheWashingtonPost
Americacanteatitswayoutofthismassivecheeseproblem

ByCharlesLaneOpinionwriter

May25at7:21PM

Asifwedidnthaveenoughtoworryaboutalready,herecomesanewissue:TheGreatCheeseGlutof2016.TheWallStreetJournalreportsthatasofMarch31,1.19billionpoundshadaccumulatedincommercialcold-storagefreezersacrosstheUnitedStates,
thelargeststockpileever.

Thisaffectsanentireglobalindustry,fromWisconsinDellstoWholeFoodsshelves.YeteachAmericanwouldhavetoeatanextra3poundsofcheesethisyear,ontopofthe36poundswealreadyconsumepercapita,toeliminatethebigyellowmountain.Evenfora
societythatpilesthestuffonsandwichesandrollsitintopizzacrusts,thatsatallorder.

Thanks,Obama!

Justkidding.ItsmorelikeThanks,Putin.InAugust2014,hebannedEuropeanUnionagriculturalimportsaspaybackforE.U.sanctionspunishingRussiasinvasionofUkraine.PutinstruckjustastheEuropeanUnionwasendingdairyproductionlimits,sotheloss
oftheRussianmarketwasdoublypainfultoE.U.producersandrenderedthemdesperateformarketselsewhere.ThrowinastrongerdollarduetoFederalReservepolicy(thanks,JanetYellen)etvoila!U.S.cheeseimportsarerising.

Readmore:http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/america-cant-eat-its-way-out-of-this-massive-cheese-problem/2016/05/25/976e96c4-228a-11e6-9e7f-57890b612299_story.html

TheNewYorkReviewofBooks
TheWarsofVladimirPutin

TimothySnyder

Read:http://www.nybooks.com/articles/2016/06/09/the-wars-of-vladimir-putin/?pagination=false&printpage=true

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:RomanKarpishka<karpishka@yahoo.com>
Date:Thu,May26,2016at11:21AM
Subject:Fw:VladdyPutlerbySnyder
To:StephanieKarpishka<stefakarpishka@gmail.com>
Cc:MyronSwidersky<sverlyk@aol.com>,AndrijBARAN<litzars@msn.com>,22MORE

Pryvit May 26th, 2016.

Brilliant article by Yale's Professor Timothy Snyder. RBK.

OnThursday,May26,20169:48AM,GeorgeMakohin<gmmok@att.net>wrote:

Excellent,excellent,excellentarticlebyProf.Snyder.

HeactuallyhasgonetothetroubleoflearningUkrainian,andwhenheappearedonAndrewKulikov'sshow,FreedomofSpeech,onICTV,heactuallyspokeUkrainian.

Hereisaquotefromthearticleabouttheschizoid"non-soldiersfromRussia"whohave"notinvaded"Ukraine:

HowdoRussianstakeprideinaRussianinvasionwhileatthesametimedenyingthatoneistakingplace?ConsiderthedarkjokenowmakingtheroundsinRussia.Wifetohusband:OursonwaskilledinactioninUkraine.
Husbandtowife:Weneverhadason.

TheWarsofVladimirPutin

image TheWarsofVladimirPutin
ThenewRussianwarsarea
BonapartismwithoutaNapoleon,

temporarilyresolvingdomestictensions

indoomedforeignadventures,but
lackingavision...
Viewonwww.nybooks.com PreviewbyYahoo

EMAIL

PRINT

TimothySnyder
The Wars of Vladimir Putin JUNE9,2016ISSUE

PozdrowieniazNoworosji[GreetingsfromNovorossiya]

byPawePieniek

Warsaw:KrytykaPolityczna,240pp.,z34.90

EntscheidunginKiew.UkrainischeLektionen[DecisioninKiev:UkrainianLessons]

byKarlSchlgel

Munich:CarlHanser,352pp.,21.90

NothingIsTrueandEverythingIsPossible:TheSurrealHeartoftheNewRussia

byPeterPomerantsev

PublicAffairs,241pp.,$25.99

1989,theyearthatthePolishwarreporterPawePieniekwasborn,wasunderstoodbysomeintheWestasanendtohistory.AfterthepeacefulrevolutionsinEasternEurope,whatalternativewastheretoliberaldemocracy?The
ruleoflawhadwontheday.Europeanintegrationwouldhelptheweakerstatesreformandsupportthesovereigntyofall.PeterPomerantsev,thesonofSovietdissidentswhoemigratedtoBritainin1978,couldreturntoRussiato
workasanartist.KarlSchlgel,adistinguishedGermanhistorianofRussianmigrs,couldgostraighttothesourcesinMoscow.

ButwastheWestcomingtotheEast,ortheEasttotheWest?By2014,aquarter-centuryaftertherevolutionsof1989,Russiaproposedacoherentalternative:fakedelections,institutionalizedoligarchy,nationalpopulism,and
Europeandisintegration.WhenUkrainiansthatyearmadearevolutioninthenameofEurope,RussianmediaproclaimedthedecadenceoftheEU,andRussianforcesinvadedUkraineinthenameofaEurasianalternative.

WhenPieniekarrivedinKievinNovember2013asayoungmanoftwenty-four,hewasobservingthelatest,andperhapsthelast,attempttomobilizetheideaofEuropeinordertoreformastate.Ukrainianshadbeenledto
expectthattheirgovernmentwouldsignanassociationagreementwiththeEuropeanUnion.Frustratedbyendemiccorruption,manyUkrainianssawtheaccordasaninstrumenttostrengthentheruleoflaw.Moscow,meanwhile,was
demandingthatUkrainenotsigntheagreementwiththeEUbutinsteadbecomeapartofitsnewEurasiantradezoneofauthoritarianregimes.

Atthelastmoment,RussianPresidentVladimirPutindissuadedtheUkrainianpresident,ViktorYanukovych,fromsigningtheEUassociationagreement.TheRussianmediaexulted.Ukrainianstudents,whohadthemosttolosefrom
endlesscorruption,gatheredonNovember21onKievscentralsquare,theMaidan,todemandthattheagreementwiththeEUbesigned.Pieniekarrivedafewdayslater.AfterpolicebeatthestudentsonthenightofNovember30,
theyoungmenandwomenwerejoinedbyhundredsofthousandsofothers,peoplewhowouldbravethecold,andworse,forthenextthreemonths.

TheEuromaidan,astheprotestswerecalledatfirst,wasmulticulturalandanti-oligarchical.Ukrainiansweretakingrisksforalocalgoalthatishardtounderstandbeyondthepost-Sovietsetting:Europeanizationasameanstoundo
corruptionandoligarchy.Byenrichingasmallclique,writesPieniekinhiscollectionofreportagefromUkraine,Yanukovychbroughtthestatetothebrinkofactualcollapse.InDecember2013Russianleadersmadefinancialaidto
Yanukovychsgovernmentcontingentuponclearingthestreetsofprotesters.ThegovernmentssubsequentescalationofrepressionfirstthesuspensionoftherightstoassemblyandfreeexpressioninJanuary2014,andthenthe
massshootingofprotestersinFebruaryturnedthepopularmovementintoarevolution.OnFebruary22,YanukovychfledtoRussia.(Twoyearslater,hispoliticalstrategist,PaulManafort,wouldresurfaceintheUS,playingthesame
roleforDonaldTrump.)Afterthefailureofitspolicyofrepressionbyremotecontrol,RussiainvadedUkrainesCrimeanpeninsula.ByMarchRussianswhohadtakenpartinthatcampaignwerearrivingintheindustrialDonbasregion
ofsoutheasternUkraine,Yanukovychsonetimepowerbase,tohelporganizeaseparatistmovement.1

InhabitantsofsoutheasternUkrainehadjustasmuchreasontobedissatisfiedwithcorruptionasanyoneelse,anditwasreasonabletofearthattherevolutioninKievwasnothingmorethanaswingofthependulumfromsome
oligarchstoothers.Justhowthesesentimentsmighthavebeenresolvedthroughnegotiationsorelectionswewillneverknow,sincetheRussianinterventionprecludedboth,bringinginsteadfearandbloodshedthatchanged
everyonespoliticalcalculations.Sloviansk,asmallcityintheDonbas,wasanearlygatheringpointforseparatists.WhenPieniekarrivedthereinApril2014,hefoundtheplacecrawlingwitharmoredpersonnelcarriers,and
understoodthatlocaloppositiontotherevolutioninKievwassupportedbyoutsideforces.TheRussiancitizenIgorGirkin,aveteranoftheCrimeaninvasionandthecommanderoftheseparatistforces,hadmadeSlovianskhis
headquarters.

UnderGirkinssupervisionapeoplesmayorarrestedtheelectedone,andthenewauthoritiesmurderedtwopeoplewhoopposedthem.WhentheUkrainiangovernmentsentpolicementoinvestigatethecrime,theywerearrested
bytheseparatistsandphotographedinhumiliatingpositionsimagessuggestingthelocaldissolutionofUkrainianstatepower.AsPieniekreported,powernowresidedintheformerheadquartersoftheUkrainianstatepolice,
whichRussiansoldiersandofficersusedastheirbase.

ByMarch2014CrimeahadbeenannexedbyRussia,andinAprilfurtherRussianannexationsofUkrainianterritoryseemedpossible.PutinspokethatmonthofaNewRussia(Novorossiya),meaningDonetskandfiveotherregions
ofeasternandsouthernUkraine.TheGermanhistorianKarlSchlgelwasfollowingPutinslanguagewithinterest.Asherecallsinhisnewbook,PutinmaintainedthattheuseoftheRussianlanguagebeyondRussiasborders
justifiedRussianinvasion.Iftheunityoflanguagegroupswereacceptedasaprincipleofrule,theninternationalstateborderswouldceasetomatter.

WorldWarIIbeganfromsucharguments(thinkoftheAnschlussandtheendofAustria,theSudetenlandandthedestructionofCzechoslovakia,andDanzigasapretextforwaragainstPoland).ThusthefoundersofEuropean
integrationinsistedthatstatebordersberespectedandissuesofhumanrightsberesolvedwithintheirnecessarilyimperfectconfines.PieniekwascontinuallystruckbythefactthatseparatistscharacterizedtheEuropeanorderas
fascist,evenastheyspokeofthesignificanceofcommonlanguageandcommonblood.Whattheymeant,herealized,wassimplythateveryonewhodoesnotsupportRussiaisafascist.

Ukraineisabilingualcountrywithacosmopolitanrulingclass.BecausealmostallUkrainiansspeakRussianaswellasUkrainian,theybelongtowhatPutincallstheRussianworld(russkiimir).Yetthisworld,asSchlgelshows,is
bynomeansalignedwiththepoliticsofMoscow.AshemovedthroughtheUkrainianeastandsouthin2014,makingeruditehistoricalsketchesofcities,hefoundanappealingvariety.Kharkiv,auniversitytownneartheRussian
border,isgovernedbypeoplewhotakeasympatheticviewofRussiabuthaverejectedseparatism.Dnipropetrovsk,theonetimeSovietrocketcity,becamethegatheringpointofRussian-speakingUkrainianvolunteerswhofought
againstseparatistsandRussians.CosmopolitanOdessaexcelledinmockeryofPutin.2

ThecityofDonetskfelltotheseparatistsforlocalreasons.3Inspring2014,itslocaloligarchswereindecisiveandtried,disastrously,toplayKievandMoscowagainsteachother.Thishadlittletodowithethnicitythemostimportant
Donetskoligarch,RinatAkhmetov,isaVolgaTatar.Withlocalpoweruncertain,RussianveteransoftheCrimeancampaigncouldtraveltoDonetskatatimewhenUkrainiancentralauthoritieshinderedsuchpeoplefromreaching
othereastUkrainiancitiessuchasKharkiv.AfterwardRussiantroopscouldmoveintoDonetskacrossaborderthatUkrainianauthoritieswereunabletocontrol.SomeoftheRussianregularsoldierswereSiberians,andmanyofthe
irregularswereChechens.ThuspeoplewhodidnotspeakRussianwerekillingpeoplewhodidinordertodefendtheRussianlanguageinaplacewhereitwasneverthreatened.4Schlgelwrites:

ThecityofDonetsk,oncehometoamillionpeople,becameaghosttown,terrorizedbybandsofcriminals,Chechenwarveterans,specialforces,Russianhightechexperts,andpeoplewhohavemadecareersinpublicrelations.

Thatlastcategorywasasimportantasalltheothers.

DespitetheannexationofCrimeainMarch2014andseparatistcontrolofthecityofDonetskinApril,byMayRussiawasfacinghumiliatingdefeat.ThroughoutthecountrytheRussianinterventionhad,asPienieknotes,
strengthenedthesenseofUkrainianidentity.TheCrimeanmodelofRussiancontrolwasirrelevantinalmostallofUkraineandwasfailinginthesoutheast.InCrimeaRussiahadanetworkoflocalturncoats,considerablesupport
fromlocalRussians,andmilitarybasesfromwhichtolaunchaninvasion.WithoutsuchresourcesthelimiteddetachmentsofRussianspecialforces,knowninUkrainefortheirlackofinsigniaaslittlegreenmen,couldnotcontrolthe
southeast.FourofthesixsoutheasterndistrictsthatPutincalledNewRussiahadproducednoseparatistmovement.TheseparatistholdontheDonetskandLuhanskregionswaspartialandshaky.

TheUkrainianleadershipnowdecidedtofight.AlthoughtheUkrainianarmedforcesweresmall,theyquicklydrovebackseparatists.Ukraineusedairpowertodeploytroopsanddestroysomeofthearmortheseparatistshadseized
fromUkrainianforcesorobtainedfromRussia.InMay2014KievwasabuzzwithrumorsofaUkrainianoffensiveonDonetsk.Tostoptherout,MoscowhadtobringdowntheUkrainianairforce.InJuneRussiantroopscrossedthe
borderwithtanksandantiaircraftbatteries.AboutadozenUkrainianaircraftwerequicklyshotdown.5

TheRussiandecisiontoescalatebroughtaboutamajorwarcrime.OneofthenumerousRussianmilitaryconvoysinthoseweeksdepartedfromitsbaseinKurskonJune23.ItwasadetachmentoftheRussian53rdAirDefense
Brigade,boundforDonetskwithaBUKantiaircraftmissilelauncherbearingthemarking332.OnthemorningofJuly17,thisBUKlauncherwashauledfromDonetsktotheUkrainiantownofSnizhne,andthenbroughtunderitsown
powertoafarmsteadsouthofthattown.

Butforwhathappenednext,thistransportofaRussianweaponwouldhavesimplybeenoneofseveralphotographedbylocalsandignoredbytheworld.MalaysianAirlinesFlight17,carrying298passengersfromAmsterdamto
KualaLumpur,wasflyingjustthenoversoutheasternUkraine.At1:20itwasstruckbyhundredsofhigh-energyprojectilesreleasedbytheexplosionofa9N314MwarheadcarriedbyamissilefiredfromthatBUKlauncher.The
projectilesrippedthroughthecockpitandinstantlykilledthecockpitcrew,fromwhosebodypartssomeofthemetalwaslaterextracted.Theaircraftwasblowntopiecesatitscruisingaltitudeof33,000feet,itspassengersandtheir
baggagescatteredoveraradiusofthirtymiles.6

SchlgelcouldfollowtheconvoyoftheBUKonhiscomputerscreen.TheyoungjournalistPieniekracedtothesitewherethelargestpiecesofwreckageandanumberofcorpseswerefound.Althoughhewasthefirstreporteron
thescene,onedayafterthecrash,itsstoryhadalreadybeentoldonRussiantelevision.TwoRussiannetworksclaimedthatUkrainianaircrafthadshotdowntheplane.Threeothernetworksprovidedamotive:Ukrainianauthorities
hadintendedtoshootdownanaircraftcarryingPutin,andhadmadeamistake.Longbeforethe298corpseshadbeenassembledandidentified,thevictimshadbeendefinedintheRussianmedia:theRussianpresidentandhis
people.

Inthedaysthatfollowed,Russianmediapurveyedfurtherversionsofthedisaster:fictional,contradictory,andsometimesgrotesque.WhatRussianscallthezombiestory,thattheCIAfilledtheplanewithcorpsesandexplodeditby
remotecontrol,enjoyssurprisinglongevity.TheRussiantacticsareeasiertomockthandismiss.AlargemajorityofRussians(86percentin2014,85percentin2015)blameUkraineforshootingdowntheflightonly2percentblamed
theirowncountry,withmostoftheremainderoptingfortheUnitedStates.7

HowdidRussiareachapoint,initsmediaandpolitics,wherethefactofRussiansoldiersmistakenlyshootingdownacivilianairlinerduringaRussianinvasionofaforeigncountrycouldbetransformedintoadurablesenseof
Russianvictimhood?Forthatmatter,howdidRussianstakesoeasilytotheideathatUkraine,seenasafraternalnation,hadsuddenlybecomeanenemygovernedbyfascists?8HowdoRussianstakeprideinaRussianinvasion
whileatthesametimedenyingthatoneistakingplace?ConsiderthedarkjokenowmakingtheroundsinRussia.Wifetohusband:OursonwaskilledinactioninUkraine.Husbandtowife:Weneverhadason.

BoththehistorianSchlgelandthetelevisionproducerandwriterPeterPomerantsevmakethecasethatthisextraordinaryflexibilitywastheconsequenceofearlierdevelopmentswithinRussiaitself.Theso-calledUkrainiancrisis,
maintainsSchlgel,isaboveallaRussiancrisis.

AsthereleaseofthePanamaPapershasonceagainconfirmed,RussiansandUkrainiansconfrontthesamecentralproblem:theweaknessoftheruleoflaw.UnlikeUkraine,Russiahasnaturalgasandoil,astrongarmy,anda
propagandaapparatusthatcanbeusedtodelay,distract,andconfuse.SchlgelobservesthattheRussianleadershipfailedtousetheprofitsfromenergyexportstodiversifytheeconomyduringtheflushfirstdecadeofthetwenty-
firstcenturywhenpriceswerehigh.Weshould,hethinks,seethepoliciesofinstitutionaloligarchy,militarybuildup,andmediacoordinationasinternalandmisguidedRussianchoicesthatmadeforeignwarslikely.Henotesthatother
observershavefoundtheRussianpropagandaofethnicjusticeandantifascismmoreappealingthanthebasicsofpoliticaleconomy.PropagandaconceitsofthiskindallowRussianstodefinethemselvesasthevictimstheypermit
outsiders,asSchlgelnotes,todiscussthewarwithoutknowinganythingaboutRussiaitself.

PomerantsevspentthatglitteringdecadeofmismanagementinMoscow,andhebecamethechroniclerofothershopesandlosses.Hisbookpresentsitselfasthememoirofayoungartistwithafilmhewantstomakebutcannot.It
wouldbeaboutthesuicidesofRussianfashionmodels,thebeautifulgirlswhoseemedtodosowellinpost-SovietRussiabutthentooktheirownlivesbyjumpingfrombuildings.Hedescribesagenerationoforphaned,high-heeled
girlsseekingsecurity,andnotfindingit,fromoldermenwhogrewwealthyduringthe2000s.Themoodofthebookisoneofvertigo,ofcrashesthatcanbedelayedanddeniedbutnotavoided.Theimagesofoneofhissuicide
modelswerecirculatedinMoscowlongafterherdeath,promisingenchantment.
JeromeSessini/MagnumPhotos

Unarmedanti-governmentprotestersbeingfireduponbysnipers,MaidanSquare,Kiev,February2014

PomerantsevarrivedinMoscowasthemediumoftelevisionwasbroughtunderstatecontrol.InOctober2002,Russiansecurityforceskilled129hostagesduringanattackonChechenterroristswhohadtakenoveraMoscow
theater.Televisioncamerasrecordedthedeathsofthehostages.Afterthat,Pomerantsevsays,thelastprivatetelevisionchannelwasbroughttoheel,andthestatebegantoorchestrateamisleadingpluralism:theTVstationslooked
different,butsaidthesamething.Leadersofacceptedpartiesmightgetmoreorlesstimeondifferentchannels.TheirpresencewasmeantonlytoconfirmtheinevitabilityofPutin.

AsPomerantsevrecalls,whenthebeetroot-facedcommunistsandthespittingnationalistsrowonTVdebatingshows,theviewerisleftwiththefeelingthat,comparedtothislot,thePresidentistheonlysanecandidate.
Pomerantsevconsidersthefateofawomanwhocreatedherownapparentlylegitimatechemicalbusinessawayfrompropagandaandpolitics.Butthereisnoescape:entrepreneursinRussiaarevulnerabletoarbitraryfiscaland
legalreviewsatthewhimsofrivals,andshewasarrested(ostensiblyfordealinginillegalnarcotics).Behindbarsthesurrealbecomesunavoidable:Blackiswhiteandwhiteisblack,asPomerantsevparaphrasesthe
businesswoman.Thereisnoreality.Whatevertheysayisreality.[She]begantoscream.

AlthoughPomerantsevpresentssuchstoriesasanelementofapostmodernworld,amoreearthboundreadingmightbethatRussia,likeUkraine,hasfailedinthemoderntaskofestablishingtheruleoflaw.ManyRussians,forthat
matter,reactedtothisfailureinmuchthesamewayasUkrainiansdidin2013.ShortlyafterPomerantsevleftMoscow,Russiansprotestedthefalsifiedparliamentaryelectionsoflate2011.Putinclaimedthatmembersofopposition
groupshadrespondedtoasignalfromSecretaryofStateHillaryClinton,andRussianpolicearrestedtheirleaders.ThisisonereasonmuchoftheRussianeliteopenlybacksTrumpoverClinton.(Theother,ofcourse,istheir
convictionthatTrumpwilldestroyUSpower.)

ThoughtheRussianmediafollowedPutinslinein2011,theveryfactoftheprotestsseemedtoshowthatmediacontrolandcoordinationwerenotenough.TheemergingstratagemwastomergeRussiannewswithforeignnews:to
makeitseemasifmuchthathappenedabroadwasaboutRussia,sinceforeignleadershadnothingontheirmindsbutthedisruptionofRussianpolitics.InthiswayRussiasgrowingsocialandeconomicproblemscouldbeignored
evenasRussiansbelievedthattheywereatthecenterofworldattention.

Aftertheprotests,Putinturnedawayfromthemiddleclassandembracednationalpopulism.TherejectionoftheEUasdecadentandthecreationoftheEurasianalternativealsoarosefromthisexperience.SowhenUkrainians
protestedinfavoroftheEUinlateNovember2013,Russianleadersunderstoodthiswithinthestorylinetheywerewritingforthemselves.RatherthandwellingonthesimilaritiesbetweenUkrainianandRussianproblemsandthe
uncomfortableabilityofUkrainianstodemandreform,theRussianmediadefinedtheEuromaidanasaneruptionofEuropeandecadence.

TheEuropeanUnionwasalreadycalledGayropanowtheEuromaidanwascalledGayeuromaidan.OnceRussiantroopsinvadedCrimea,happyendingsgavewayontelevisionscreenstosplendidlittlewars.Russiaseconomic
declinecontinued,butthiscouldnowbepresentedasthepriceofforeignglory.ThroughSeptember2015,themainsubjectcouldbeUkraine.ThatOctober,itchangedtoSyria.

ThenewRussianwarsareaBonapartismwithoutaNapoleon,temporarilyresolvingdomestictensionsindoomedforeignadventures,butlackingavisionfortheworld.Idealsarerecognizedinordertobemocked.Thisisanewtype
ofKremlinpropaganda,writesPomerantsev,lessaboutarguingagainsttheWestwithacounter-modelasintheColdWar,moreaboutslippinginsideitslanguagetoplayandtauntitfrominside.Authoritarianismisthebestofall
possiblesystemsthethinkinggoesbecausetheothersare,despiteappearances,nobetter.Lyingintheserviceofthestatusquoisperfectlyjustified,sincetheothersidesliesaremorepernicious.

Allproblems,inthisworldview,arisefromillusoryhopesofimprovementarousedbyforeignpowers.Policepowerisauthentic,whereaspopularmovementsarenot.Killingintheserviceofthestatusquoisnecessary,sincenothingis
moredangerousthanchange.InthepartsofsoutheasternUkraineunderRussianandseparatistcontrol,millionsofpeoplehavelosttheirhomesandthousandstheirlives,butthepropertyoftheoligarchsisuntouchedandthose
separatistswhobelievedtheywerefightingagainstoligarchyhavebeenmurdered.9

Mustprotestsforjusticebringforeigninvasion,stupefyingpropaganda,andsqualidmurderinthenameofmaintainingthewealthofafew?ThisistheessenceofRussianforeignpolicy:enforcingtheprinciplethatpubliceffortsto
changepoliticsforthebettermustbringwarandnormalizationtousethetermmadenotoriousaftertheRedArmyanditsWarsawPactalliesputdownthePragueSpringin1968.Pomerantsev,whoisconcernedwiththe
connectionsbetweenthelate-Sovietandthepost-Soviet,deftlyrevealsthesignificanceoftherevolutionsof1968asaturningpointinSovietpoliticsandindissidentpoliticalthought.

WhenSovietforcescrushedtheCzechoslovakshopesforsocialismwithahumanface,PomerantsevsmotherwasaSovietschoolgirl.AKGBofficerwhohadtakenpartintheinvasionlatervisitedherclassroom,regalingthe
childrenwithstoriesofthedefeatoftheCzechoslovakreformmovement.Untilthenthegirlhadbelievedtheofficialversion:thattheSovietarmyhadintervenedtostopaWestern-backedfascistcoup.Surprisedbywhatshewas
hearing,sheasked:Youmeantheywerenthappytoseeyou?ThelooktheKGBmangavehersaiditall:shewastounderstandthattheofficialversionwasalie,andthatthedutyofSovietcitizenswastoknowinglylivewithinsuch
lies.

AftertheinvasionofCzechoslovakia,SovietleaderLeonidBrezhnevpromisedfraternalassistancetoanyEasternEuropeancountrythatseemedtodepartfromtheofficialline.ToSovietcitizensBrezhnevproposedreallyexisting
socialism,thenotionthatdespitethedrearinessoflifenothingbetterwaspossible.ForKGBmeneducatedinthe1970s,suchasVladimirPutin,instabilityandchangeweretheenemiesmorethananyparticularidea.Workinginthe
1980sinEastGermany,hecoulddeludehimselfthatthestatusquowasdurablethoughbythenEastGermanstabilitydependeduponWesterneconomies.ItwouldnotoccurtohimthatBrezhnevsbetonenergyexportsandforeign
interventionwasamistakeonceinpower,Putinwouldrepeatit.Thevalueofabarrelofcrudeoil(intodaysdollars)whentheUSSRinvadedAfghanistanin1979waspeakingat$101whentheUSSRself-destructedin1991itwas
$34.WhenthatRussianBUKconvoyarrivedinDonetskinJune2014,thepriceofoilwaspeakingat$112asIwriteitis$39.

EasternEuropeandissidentssuchasPomerantsevsparentsdrewadifferentlessonfromthewreckageof1968:theimportanceoftruthasthefoundationofalifeindignityatermthatUkrainiansappliedtotheirrevolutionin
2014.10Schlgel,achildoftheWesternEuropeanstudentmovementsof1968,istroubledthatmembersofhisowngenerationpreferstagnationtorevolution.Hewantstoknowwhythegenerationwhoseownmemoriesaredirected
toParisinMayof1968didnotreacttoKiev.WhydidsofewpeoplewhoidentifywiththeleftnotseetheUkrainianrevolutionassuch,andnotcondemnthecounterrevolutionaryRussianinvasionaccordingly?Partoftheansweris
thatmanyintheWestwhoremember1968recallParisandnotPrague,andsoforgetthereactionarymilitarismoftheBrezhnevdoctrine.Schlgelisfundamentallyconcernedaboutadeep,metaphysicalillness.Hewritesthathis
owngeneration,whichhasknownEuropeinbettertimes,prefersnostalgiatoknowledge.AlifelongstudentofRussia,hesawhisownjourneytoUkraineasanhourofverificationandself-verification.
 TherewasnoOrwelloftheUkrainianrevolution,butreadersofSchlgelandPieniekwillgetsomethingliketheeverydaygritandpoliticalinsightofHomagetoCatalonia.Pieniekriskedhislifetoseewhathesaw,asdidother
braveandtalentedWesternjournalists.11Alongtheway,perhaps,hebenefitedfromtheseeminglyinnocuousnatureofhiswork.Becauseseparatistsbelievedthatonlytelevisioncoveragemattered,theykeptaskingwherehis
cameramanwas.Perhapsbecausehewasfilingforprint,Pieniekfounditeasiertoextendconversationsandmovefromonesideofthelinestotheother.Afterhespentdayswithaseparatistthetwomenrealizedthattheyhad
bothbeenontheMaidanonthesameday,theonebeatingandtheothergettingbeaten.ItsayssomethingaboutPieniekstactthathekepttherelationshipgoing.Pieniektakesnostandsandstrikesnoposes,butmodestly
exemplifiestheolddissidentidealofseekingaftersmalltruths,atrisktooneself,inaworldofbiglies.

Withsimilarhumility,PomerantsevpresentshisRussianfriendsassimilartohisWesternfriends.Theirworldisjustaturnofthekaleidoscopeaway.Sincethepublicationofhisbook,PomerantsevhasnotedtheaffinityofTrumps
propagandawiththeRussianmodel.ThefragilityofRussiaspresentregimeislittleconsolation,sinceitsmethodsofrulecouldworkintheWesthere,saysPomerantsev,isgoingtobethere.Ifthesinofintellectualsinthe
twentiethcenturywastoproposeutopianvisions,thatofthetwenty-firstistodenyallpossibilityofchange.Schlgelfearsanewtrahisondesclercs,anabandonmentofthesearchfortruththat,saysPomerantsev,bringsthe
bottomlessskepticismthatmakespoliticalactionseempointless.Wecannotgiveup,Schlgelconcludes,onthedifferencebetweenfactandfiction.Somethingsaretrue,andsomethingsarepossible.

ForalegalaccountingoftheseeventsseeThomasD.Grant,AggressionAgainstUkraine:Territory,Responsibility,andInternationalLaw(PalgraveMacmillan,2015).

AsSerhyYekelchyknotes:UkrainianvolunteersandconscriptsaremoreoftenthannotthemselvesspeakingRussian,meaningthattheyarefightingforacivicratherthananethnicconceptofUkrainianidentity.SeeTheConflictinUkraine:WhatEverybodyNeedstoKnow(OxfordUniversity
Press,2015),p.18.

Onprewarloyalties,seeGrigorePop-ElechesandGraemeRobertson,DoCrimeansActuallyWanttoJoinRussia?,TheWashingtonPost,March6,2014.

InFebruary2014UkrainianauthoritiesproposedtherepealofalawthatallowedRussiantobedeclaredaregionallanguage.Theydidnotinfactrepealit.The(nearlyuniversal)useofRussianintheDonbaswasnotaffectedeitherbythepassageofthelaworthediscussionofitsrepeal.

InMay2014Ukrainehelddemocraticpresidentialelections,legitimizingtheneworder.PutinhasnowadmittedthedirectRussianmilitaryroleinbothCrimeaandintheDonbas.AthisDecember17,2015,pressconferencehesaid:Weneversaidtherewerenotpeopletherewhocarried
outcertaintasksincludinginthemilitarysphere.TheRussianmilitaryjournalistArkadyBabchenkocharacterizedsuchcircumlocutionsasinfantilismraisedtotherankofstatepolicy.

BothRussianandUkrainianofficialshaveclaimed,falsely,nottopossesstherelevantweapons.Threemajorreportsallowastraightforwardreconstructionoftheevent:thatoftheDutchSafetyBoard,releasedonOctober13,2015,andtheopen-sourceseriesofinvestigationscarriedoutby
theinvestigativejournalismwebsitesBellingcatandCorrect!v.Whereasthefirstfocusesonthedestructionoftheairplane,thelattertwodescribethemovementsoftheRussianBUK.InDecember2015BellingcatsubmittedtoDutchprosecutorsalistofRussiansoldiersbelievedtohave
personalknowledgeofthecircumstancesoftheshootingdownofMH17.

LevadaCenter,reportofJuly27,2015.

Inthe2014parliamentaryelections,whichtookplaceunderthepressureofwar,neitherofthetworight-wingpartiesclearedthe5percentthresholdforparticipation(RightSectorreceived1.8percentandSvoboda4.7percentofthepopularvote).

SeeAndriyPortnov,HowEasternUkraineWasLost,OpenDemocracy,January14,2016.

10.10

SeeKieranWilliams,TheRussianView(s)ofthePragueSpring,JournalofColdWarStudies,Vol.14,No.2(Spring2012).

11

Traditionalprintreportingprovidedthehumanizingcountertotheeasiertropesofpropaganda.SeeTimJudah,InWartime:StoriesfromUkraine(London:AllenLane,2015).

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:VRT
Date:Thu,May26,2016at10:58AM
Subject:HOPEYOUCAUGHTTHIS:TakingWarSeriously

To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
TakingWarSeriously:Russia-NATOShowdownNoLongerJustFiction

ByJamesSherr

May.25201619:24

Lastedited19:24

YvesHerman/ReutersANATOflagfliesattheAllianceheadquartersinBrussels.

NATOsformerDeputySupremeAlliedCommander,GeneralSirRichardShirreffsnewbook,2017:WarWithRussia,isaworkoffiction.ButitssubjectaclashbetweenNATOandRussiaasearlyasnext
yearisnotcompletelyfanciful.

WhenRussiaattackedUkrainein2014,italsoattackedtheHelsinki-basedsecurityorderofEurope.Inplaceofthissystem,PresidentVladimirPutiniscallingforarevivedYaltasystem,basedonspheresof
influenceandrespect.HealsohasinvokedthebordersofhistoricRussiaandproclaimedarighttodefendRussiancompatriotsabroad.

AndiftreatiesandagreementsarenotsacrosancttotheKremlin,whyshouldNATObordersbesacrosanct?ItisonlyreasonablethatNATOsBalticalliesaskthisquestionandthatothers,beginningwithTurkey,
dosoaswell.
SofiaMiroyedova

Theirconcernsareheightenedbymilitarydevelopmentsassignificantastodayspoliticalones.SincethewarwithGeorgiain2008,Russiahasmadeasteady,cumulativeinvestmentinthecapacitytowagelocal JamesSherr
andregionalwarthroughouttheinteriorandontheperipheryoftheformerU.S.S.R.Thismeansfull-spectrum,non-linearwar,fromnon-attributableattacksbypolitelittlementofirstuseofnuclearweapons.Italso
meansinformationwar,fromdisinformationtocyberattacks,andacoordinatedefforttomobilizethestate.

Whatisthepurposeoftheinvestment?TheshortansweristowageproactivedefenseagainstgeopoliticalandcivilizationalencirclementbytheWest.ThatstatesonRussiasperipherymightwelcomeWesternencroachmentisgrist
tothemillofthoseinRussiawhoassessthreatsandrespondtothem.InsidetheKremlinsfebrileworld,anunbrokenchainofmalignintentconnectsNATOandEUenlargement,humanitarianinterventions,coloredrevolutionsand
regimechanges,culminatingwithRussiaitself.ToaskinthesecircumstanceswhetherRussiaspolicyisoffensiveordefensiveistoplaywithwords.

TodaytheBalticstatesarethreatenedpolitically.TheaimofRussianpolicyistopersuadethemthat,insideoroutsidetheEUandNATO,theylieinagreyzoneandshouldbehaveaccordingly.Tothisend,military-forcegroupswitha
capacitytoseizeRigaandTallinnin60hoursareanasset,evenifitwouldbefollytoemploytheminpractice.UntilNATOtakesstepstorectifythemilitarybalance,Russiawillusefearasaweapontounderminethepoliticalbalance.

ButwhatistheriskthattheBalticswillbeattackedmilitarily?SinceNATOcannotknow,itmustnotallowadangerousimbalanceofforcestoarise.Unfortunately,italreadyhasarisen.From1991to2008,theWestbelievedthere
wouldbenomilitarythreatsinEurope,andnationalarmedforceswererestructuredaccordingly.TheimpactoftheGeorgianwarontheseorthodoxieswasminimal.ButCrimeasannexationhaslaunchedanintellectualrevolution.
Thoseatitscuttingedgearerealistswhoknowthatvulnerabilitiescannotberepairedbysummitdeclarationsandband-aids.

TheyalsoknowthatRussiasweaknessesareastellingasitsstrengths.Today,RussiahasanenhancedversionofthearmythatDefenseMinisterSergeiShoiguspredecessor,AnatolySerdyukov,aspiredtobuild.Theironyisthat
hewasthefirstRussiandefenseministertoremoveNATOasthebaselineofRussiandefensesufficiency.

Thecoreoftodaysmilitarycapabilityliesin30-40maneuverunits,nuclearanddual-usestrikesystemsandmulti-layeredairdefense.Thatisaformidablecapabilityforlimitedconflict,butitisnotthecapabilityRussiasGeneralStaff
woulddesignforfull-scalewaragainstNATO.Russiasambitiouslonger-termplansconfirmasmuch.ButtheseplansarerunningintotheusualRussianbuffershuman,industrialandinstitutionalandnotallofthemcanbe
plannedoutofexistence,leastofallinadamagedanddeterioratingeconomy.
Therefore,thechallengeforNATOisnodifferentthanitusedtobeinWestBerlin:topersuadeRussiathatanywarmeansfull-scalewar.Tothisend,itisnotnecessarytodenyRussiaavictoryintheBalticstates.Itisnecessaryto
denyitaquickvictory.Thisisadoabletask,butthatdoesnotmeanitwillbedone.TherealsoisnocertaintythatPutinsChekisttestingandprobingofweaknesswillnotprovokeatougherresponsethanhecansafelymanage.

JamesSherrisAssociateFellow,ChathamHouse
 From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 05/26/201610:28:23AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: FW:[DIGESTOFDIGESTS5-26][JDDD]TimothyS:WarsofPutinJamesS:"Takingwarseriously:Russia-NATOshowdownnolongerjustfiction"7MoreStories.....[ODDD]ReadandRereadtheOSCE/CSCEReport[Important].......[RO/K]TIMS'Article"InFull"

From:VolodymyrZarycky[mailto:cusurwaz@gmail.com]
Sent:Thursday,May26,20169:55AM
To:RomaHadzewyczrl
Subject:[DIGESTOFDIGESTS5-26][JDDD]TimothyS:WarsofPutinJamesS:"Takingwarseriously:Russia-NATOshowdownnolongerjustfiction"7MoreStories.....[ODDD]ReadandRereadtheOSCE/CSCEReport[Important].......[RO/K]TIMS'Article"InFull"-...

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Date:Thu,May26,2016at11:47AM
Subject:TimothySNYDER,"TheWARSofVladimirPUTIN,"NewYorkReviewofBooks,nybooks.com,6/9issue
To:"howard@jamestown.org"<howard@jamestown.org>
Cc:"paul.goble@gmail.com"<paul.goble@gmail.com>,"waz2102@caa.columbia.edu"<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

TimothySNYDER,"TheWARSofVladimirPUTIN,"NewYorkReviewofBooks,nybooks.com,6/9issue

ReviewofaPolishandaGermanbookonRussiasincursionsintoUkraineandofPeterPomerantsevsNothingIsTrueandEverythingIsPossible

And:PUTINSCYBERWAR:RussiasStatecraftintheFifthDomain,ReportbyTheHenryJacksonSociety,http://relayto.com/the-henry-jackslon-society/YDD2kg11

And:BrianWHITMORE,UkrainesNEWHOPE[NadiaSavchenko],http://www.rferl.org/content/urkaines-new-hope/27757341.html

NadiaSavchenkocouldandIstresscouldjustturnouttobeUkrainesVaclavHavel,oritsLechWalesa,oritsNelsonMandela.

And:UkraineBANSGORBACHEVover[his]supportforCRIMEAANNEXATION,reuters.com,5/26
UkrainehasbannedformerSovietleaderMikhailGorbachevfromentryforthenextfiveyearsoverhissupportforRussiasseizureofCrimea

And:SAVCHENKOtojoinRadasnationalsecurityanddefensecommittee,unian.info,5/26

And:Putinhasremovedthehead[GeneralEvgeniiMUROV]oftheFederalProtectionService[FSO],http://www.newsru.com/russia/26may2016/fso_print,html

And:JamesSHERR(ChathamHouse),Takingwarseriously:Russia-NATOshowdownnolongerjustfiction,themoscowtimes.com,5/26

And:ElectionsPutin-style:Scandalsinsteadofprimaries,oppositionbeingremovedfromtheprimariesatthewhimoftheauthorities,http://www.novayagazeta.ru/politics/73227.html?print=1

And:RBCcorrespondentreports[BALLOTBOX]STUFFINGviolationsatUnitedRussiapartyprimaries,meduza.io,5/23[inEnglish]

And:OnballotboxSTUFFINGinMurmansk:http://www.novayagazeta.ru/politics/73211.html?print=1

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:Deychak,Orest<Orest.Deychak@mail.house.gov>
Date:Thu,May26,2016at12:02PM
Subject:Ukraine:HC,USOSCE,NYT,WP(2),NYRB
To:"Deychak,Orest"<Orest.Deychak@mail.house.gov>

Butfirst,incaseyoumissedit:

HELSINKICOMMISSIONCHAIR,CO-CHAIRWELCOMESAVCHENKORELEASE
URGERUSSIATOCOMPLYWITHMINSKAGREEMENTS

WASHINGTONFollowingtodaysreleaseofUkrainianfighterpilotNadiyaSavchenkofromprisoninRussia,RepresentativeChrisSmith(NJ-04),ChairmanoftheCommissiononSecurityandCooperationinEurope,andSenatorRogerWicker(MS),Co-
ChairmanoftheCommission,issuedthefollowingstatement:

WewelcomeNadiyaslong-overduerelease,butwemustnotforgetaboutotherUkrainiancitizensunjustlyimprisonedinRussia.WemustalsorememberthatRussiastilloccupiesCrimeaandcontinuesitsaggressionineasternUkraine,
bringingmiseryandsufferingtomillionsofUkrainians.

RussiashouldhonortheMinskagreementswhichitviolateswithimpunityifthereistobepeacefulresolutiontotheconflict.Aboveall,RussianeedstogetoutofUkraine.

LastSeptember,theHousepassedaresolutioncallingforSavchenkosrelease,whichwasstrengthenedbyChairmanSmithsamendmentcallingfortheimpositionofpersonalsanctionsagainstindividualsresponsiblefortheimprisonmentofSavchenkoandother
UkrainiancitizensillegallyincarceratedinRussia.

AresolutionsponsoredbyCo-ChairmanWickerandHelsinkiCommissionRankingSenateCommissionerBenCardin(MD)callingforherreleasepassedtheSenateinFebruary2015.

###

TheCommissiononSecurityandCooperationinEurope,alsoknownastheU.S.HelsinkiCommission,isanindependentagencyoftheFederalGovernmentchargedwithmonitoringcompliancewiththeHelsinkiAccordsandadvancing
comprehensivesecuritythroughpromotionofhumanrights,democracy,andeconomic,environmentalandmilitarycooperationin57countries.TheCommissionconsistsofninemembersfromtheU.S.Senate,ninefromtheHouseof
Representatives,andonemembereachfromtheDepartmentsofState,Defense,andCommerce.

TodayinVienna:

USMissiontotheOSCE(2)
OntheReturnofNadiyaSavchenkotoUkraine|StatementtothePC

http://osce.usmission.gov/return-nadiya-savchenko-ukraine-statement-pc/

TheUnitedStateswarmlywelcomesNadiyaSavchenkosreleaseandreturntoUkraine.Nearlytwoyearsago,shewasabductedineasternUkraineandsmuggledagainstherwillintoRussia.Ms.Savchenkoenduredrelentlessinterrogations,solitaryconfinement,
andforcedpsychiatricevaluation.Throughitall,sheremainedsteadfast,resilient,andloyaltohercountry.

ThereturnofMs.Savchenkoshouldnowbefollowedbythereleaseofallhostagesandunlawfullydetainedpersons,includingOlegSentsov,GennadyAfanasiev,OleksanderKolchenko,YuriSoloshenko,StansilavKlikh,andMykolaKarpyuk,asRussiacommitted
todoundertheMinskagreements.WeencourageRussiatotakefurtherstepstocompleteimplementationofitsMinskcommitments,includingareal,comprehensive,andsustainedceasefireineasternUkrainefullaccessfortheOSCEtotheareaaffectedbythe
conflictelectionsunderUkrainianlawthatmeetOSCEstandardsandaremonitoredbytheOSCEOfficeforDemocraticInstitutionsandHumanRightsthewithdrawalofforeignforcesandequipmentandthereturntoUkraineoffullcontroloveritsinternational
border.

Thankyou,Mr.Chair.

AsdeliveredbyAmbassadorDanielB.BaertothePermanentCouncil,Vienna

USMissiontotheOSCE
http://osce.usmission.gov/russias-ongoing-violations-ukraine-statement-pc-4-2/

OnRussiasOngoingViolationsinUkraine|StatementtothePC

May26,2016

DespiteeffortstobuildontheEasterceasefirerecommitmentandcreateabettersecurityenvironment,thisweekbeganwiththehighestcasualtiesincurredsinceAugustoflastyear.ThesecurityzoneineasternUkrainecontinuestobedefinedbytensionand
instability,asSpecialMonitoringMission(SMM)DeputyChiefMonitorAlexanderHugsaidthisweek.

CombinedRussian-separatistforcesincreasedtheirattackswhilesimultaneouslyobstructingSMMmonitors,preventingthemfromaccountingforthoseceasefireviolations.CoordinatedattacksbycombinedRussian-separatistforcesonMay24resultedinthe
heaviestlossessufferedbyUkrainianforcesinasingledaythisyear:sevenkilledandninewounded.

Russiacontinuestoarm,train,andfightalongsideseparatistforces,andthesecurityzoneremainsawashinheavyweapons,tanks,armoredpersonnelcarriers,andanti-aircraftguns.Theseweaponsappearinpartoftheconflictzoneoneday,vanishthenext,andthen
reappearsomewhereelse,underminingconfidencebetweenthesidesandeffortstowardasustainableceasefireandMinskimplementation.OnMay15alone,theSMMcounted81tanksonseparatist-heldterritory.Regrettably,combinedRussian-separatistforces
havenothesitatedtoputtheseweaponstouse,poundingresidentialareasofAvdiivkawithmortarsandartilleryfireonMay21and22,killingtwoUkrainiansoldiers,woundingeightothers,anddamagingordestroyingsixhomes.Theseattackswerepremeditated
andcameshortlyaftercombinedRussian-separatistforcesdisconnectedtheSMMsstaticobservationcamerasinDonetsk,camerastheyhadpromisedtheSMMcouldoperatewithoutinterference.

Colleagues,thePermanentCouncilhasoftenheardtheRussianFederationcallforintensivemonitoringofhotspots.WecallonRussiatodirecttheseparatistsitbackstoimmediatelyallowtheSMMfullaccesstotheareasundertheircontrolandtorestoreits
cameras,whichareessentialtomonitoringhotspotsthataretoodangerousformonitorstopatrol.

ItisessentialthatRussiaandtheseparatistsagreetoadisengagementplan,whichcanthenbeendorsedbytheTrilateralContactGroupasquicklyaspossible.Manyoftheproposedlocationsfordisengagementareatcrossingpointsonthelineofcontact.Inthis
regard,wenotethattheGovernmentofUkrainehasalreadytakenstepsthatwillsupportdisengagementefforts.Inkeepingwithitsagreementtoopenupmorecrossingpoints,Ukrainehasclearedminesandconstructedpropercrossingfacilitiesatitscheckpointin
Zolote.Theseparatistshavenotupheldtheircommitmentsneithertoallowcivilianstocrossnortopullbacktheheavyweaponsthatputlivesatrisk.Civiliansaresubjectedtokilometers-longlines,andareexposedtotheever-presentriskofgettingcaughtin
crossfire.We,therefore,underscoretheneedforanagreementondisengagementnotonlytostabilizetheceasefire,buttoimprovethelivesofpeoplelivingonbothsidesofthecontactline.

Colleagues,overthelastfewmonthsfreshevidencehascometolightofRussiascontinuedsupplyofsophisticatedmilitaryequipmenttotheseparatistsinclearcontraventionofmeasure10oftheMinskPackageofMeasures.ASMMUAVrecentlytookaphoto
ofaRussianOrlan-10UAVflyingfromthedirectionofseparatist-heldpartsofDonetsk.TheOrlan-10isaRussiansystemitisnotcommerciallyavailableandcanonlybeflownbytrainedoperators.TheUkrainianmilitaryreportedthatanarmedUAVdropped
munitionsonUkrainiansoldiersonMay18.TheSMMonceagainfoundevidenceofRussianjammingequipment,anIVOMineralnyantenna,onseparatist-heldterritoryonApril12.Thepresenceofsophisticatedmilitarytechnologyonthebattlefieldexposesthe
fallacyofRussiascontentionthatthisisaninternalconflictitisRussiawhichinstigatedthisconflict,Russiawhichhasfueledit,andRussiawhichmustnowacttoendit.

Resolvingthisconflictrequiresthereturnofseparatist-controlledareasofDonetskandLuhansktoUkrainiancontrol.OnthistheMinskagreementsarecrystalclear.WethereforecondemnthedecisionbytheRussianFederationtoacceptphonyseparatist
passportsasvalidforcrossingbetweenUkraineandtheRussianFederation.

InRussia-occupiedCrimea,Russiacontinuestoviolatetherightsofthosewhoopposetheoccupation,includingmembersofreligiousandethnicminoritiesindefianceofOSCEprinciplesandcommitments.RussianauthoritieshaveshutdownCrimeanTatarmedia.
Russianforceshaveraidedhomesandmosques,andharassedandimprisonedCrimeanTataractivists,someofwhomhavedisappearedorbeenkilled.HavingbannedtheMejlisthelegal,legitimaterepresentativebodyoftheCrimeanTatarpeopleRussian
authoritieshaveacceleratedacrackdownonitsleadership.OnMay12,theDeputyChairmanoftheCrimeanTatarMejlis,IlmiUmerov,wasarrested,alongwiththreeothers.WeremindtheRussianFederationthatsanctionsrelatedtoitsoccupationofCrimeawill
remaininplaceuntiltheoccupationends.AndwejointheEUinmanytimesreaffirmingthatsanctionsimposedupontheRussianFederationforitsaggressionineasternUkrainewillalsoremaininplaceuntilRussiafullyimplementsitsMinskcommitments.

Thankyou,Mr.Chair.

AsdeliveredbyAmbassadorDanielB.BaertothePermanentCouncil,Vienna

Note:VariationsofWPandNYTarticlesIsentoutyesterdayonthereleaseofNadiyaSavchenkoappearinprinteditionsofthosepaperstoday.

TheNewYorkTimes
GermanForeignMinisterSteinmeierSaysExtendingRussiaSanctionsMoreDifficult

ByREUTERSMAY26,2016,6:30A.M.E.D.T.

Continuereadingthemainstory

VILNIUSAnagreementonrenewingsanctionsagainstRussiawhentheyrunoutonJuly31hasbecomemoredifficultwithgrowingoppositionfromsomeEUcountries,Germany'sforeignministersaidonThursday.

EuropeanUnioneconomicsanctionsagainstRussiawereintroducedforoneyearinJuly2014inresponsetoitsactionsinUkraineandtwiceextendedin2015.

"WeareawarethatresistanceintheEUtoextendingthesanctionstowardsRussiahasincreased,"Frank-WalterSteinmeierwasquotedbyLithuania'sBNSnewsagencysayinginaninterview.

"Itwillbemoredifficultthanitwaslastyeartofindacommonpositiononthisissue."

GermanywantstokeepthesanctionsuntiltheMinskpeaceaccordsbetweenRussiaandUkraineareimplemented,Steinmeiersaid.

"Onethingisforsure.WecannotignoreRussia'sannexationofCrimeainviolationofinternationallawandthedestabilisationofEasternUkraine,"hesaid.

The28-strongEUneedsunanimitytokeepthesanctionsinplaceandthebloc'sunityhasbeenincreasinglytestedonthat.

LastweekdiplomatsandofficialstoldReuterstheEUwasstillontracktorenewthem,thoughanextensioncouldbecontestedandonlyshort-term.

Italy,Greece,Cyprus,HungaryandBulgariaareamongEUstatesscepticalthatsanctionsshouldbeextended,diplomatssaid,facingoffagainstBritain,Sweden,PolandandtheBalticstates.

(ReportingByAndriusSytasEditingbyMarkJohn)
 TheWashingtonPost/AP

GorbachevbarredfromvisitingUkraineforCrimearemarks

http://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/gorbachev-barred-from-visiting-ukraine-for-crimea-remarks/2016/05/26/c3aede60-2348-11e6-b944-52f7b1793dae_story.html

May26at9:50AM

MOSCOWTheUkrainianintelligenceagencySBUsaysithasbarredthelastleaderoftheSovietUnion,MikhailGorbachev,fromvisitingUkraineforthenextfiveyears.

TheSBUsaidinastatementThursdaythatthiswasareactiontoGorbachevspubliccondoningofthe2014RussianannexationofCrimea.

TheSundayTimesquoted85-yearoldGorbachevassayingthathewouldhaveactedthesamewayasRussianPresidentVladimirPutinifhehadfoundhimselfinasimilarsituation.

GorbachevoversawthecollapseoftheSovietUnionin1991andhasbeenlaudedworldwideforencouragingthereunificationofGermanyandlargelyallowingformerSovietsatellitesineasternEuropetobreakawayfromMoscowsorbit.

Andforallofyoucheese-eatersoutthere.And,yes,thisisUkrainerelated:

TheWashingtonPost
Americacanteatitswayoutofthismassivecheeseproblem

ByCharlesLaneOpinionwriter

May25at7:21PM

Asifwedidnthaveenoughtoworryaboutalready,herecomesanewissue:TheGreatCheeseGlutof2016.TheWallStreetJournalreportsthatasofMarch31,1.19billionpoundshadaccumulatedincommercialcold-storagefreezersacrosstheUnitedStates,
thelargeststockpileever.

Thisaffectsanentireglobalindustry,fromWisconsinDellstoWholeFoodsshelves.YeteachAmericanwouldhavetoeatanextra3poundsofcheesethisyear,ontopofthe36poundswealreadyconsumepercapita,toeliminatethebigyellowmountain.Evenfora
societythatpilesthestuffonsandwichesandrollsitintopizzacrusts,thatsatallorder.

Thanks,Obama!

Justkidding.ItsmorelikeThanks,Putin.InAugust2014,hebannedEuropeanUnionagriculturalimportsaspaybackforE.U.sanctionspunishingRussiasinvasionofUkraine.PutinstruckjustastheEuropeanUnionwasendingdairyproductionlimits,sotheloss
oftheRussianmarketwasdoublypainfultoE.U.producersandrenderedthemdesperateformarketselsewhere.ThrowinastrongerdollarduetoFederalReservepolicy(thanks,JanetYellen)etvoila!U.S.cheeseimportsarerising.

Readmore:http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/america-cant-eat-its-way-out-of-this-massive-cheese-problem/2016/05/25/976e96c4-228a-11e6-9e7f-57890b612299_story.html

TheNewYorkReviewofBooks
TheWarsofVladimirPutin

TimothySnyder

Read:http://www.nybooks.com/articles/2016/06/09/the-wars-of-vladimir-putin/?pagination=false&printpage=true

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:RomanKarpishka<karpishka@yahoo.com>
Date:Thu,May26,2016at11:21AM
Subject:Fw:VladdyPutlerbySnyder
To:StephanieKarpishka<stefakarpishka@gmail.com>
Cc:MyronSwidersky<sverlyk@aol.com>,AndrijBARAN<litzars@msn.com>,22MORE

Pryvit May 26th, 2016.

Brilliant article by Yale's Professor Timothy Snyder. RBK.

OnThursday,May26,20169:48AM,GeorgeMakohin<gmmok@att.net>wrote:

Excellent,excellent,excellentarticlebyProf.Snyder.

HeactuallyhasgonetothetroubleoflearningUkrainian,andwhenheappearedonAndrewKulikov'sshow,FreedomofSpeech,onICTV,heactuallyspokeUkrainian.

Hereisaquotefromthearticleabouttheschizoid"non-soldiersfromRussia"whohave"notinvaded"Ukraine:

HowdoRussianstakeprideinaRussianinvasionwhileatthesametimedenyingthatoneistakingplace?ConsiderthedarkjokenowmakingtheroundsinRussia.Wifetohusband:OursonwaskilledinactioninUkraine.
Husbandtowife:Weneverhadason.

TheWarsofVladimirPutin

image TheWarsofVladimirPutin
ThenewRussianwarsarea
BonapartismwithoutaNapoleon,

temporarilyresolvingdomestictensions

indoomedforeignadventures,but
lackingavision...
Viewonwww.nybooks.com PreviewbyYahoo

EMAIL

PRINT

TimothySnyder
The Wars of Vladimir Putin JUNE9,2016ISSUE

PozdrowieniazNoworosji[GreetingsfromNovorossiya]

byPawePieniek

Warsaw:KrytykaPolityczna,240pp.,z34.90

EntscheidunginKiew.UkrainischeLektionen[DecisioninKiev:UkrainianLessons]

byKarlSchlgel

Munich:CarlHanser,352pp.,21.90

NothingIsTrueandEverythingIsPossible:TheSurrealHeartoftheNewRussia

byPeterPomerantsev

PublicAffairs,241pp.,$25.99

1989,theyearthatthePolishwarreporterPawePieniekwasborn,wasunderstoodbysomeintheWestasanendtohistory.AfterthepeacefulrevolutionsinEasternEurope,whatalternativewastheretoliberaldemocracy?The
ruleoflawhadwontheday.Europeanintegrationwouldhelptheweakerstatesreformandsupportthesovereigntyofall.PeterPomerantsev,thesonofSovietdissidentswhoemigratedtoBritainin1978,couldreturntoRussiato
workasanartist.KarlSchlgel,adistinguishedGermanhistorianofRussianmigrs,couldgostraighttothesourcesinMoscow.

ButwastheWestcomingtotheEast,ortheEasttotheWest?By2014,aquarter-centuryaftertherevolutionsof1989,Russiaproposedacoherentalternative:fakedelections,institutionalizedoligarchy,nationalpopulism,and
Europeandisintegration.WhenUkrainiansthatyearmadearevolutioninthenameofEurope,RussianmediaproclaimedthedecadenceoftheEU,andRussianforcesinvadedUkraineinthenameofaEurasianalternative.

WhenPieniekarrivedinKievinNovember2013asayoungmanoftwenty-four,hewasobservingthelatest,andperhapsthelast,attempttomobilizetheideaofEuropeinordertoreformastate.Ukrainianshadbeenledto
expectthattheirgovernmentwouldsignanassociationagreementwiththeEuropeanUnion.Frustratedbyendemiccorruption,manyUkrainianssawtheaccordasaninstrumenttostrengthentheruleoflaw.Moscow,meanwhile,was
demandingthatUkrainenotsigntheagreementwiththeEUbutinsteadbecomeapartofitsnewEurasiantradezoneofauthoritarianregimes.

Atthelastmoment,RussianPresidentVladimirPutindissuadedtheUkrainianpresident,ViktorYanukovych,fromsigningtheEUassociationagreement.TheRussianmediaexulted.Ukrainianstudents,whohadthemosttolosefrom
endlesscorruption,gatheredonNovember21onKievscentralsquare,theMaidan,todemandthattheagreementwiththeEUbesigned.Pieniekarrivedafewdayslater.AfterpolicebeatthestudentsonthenightofNovember30,
theyoungmenandwomenwerejoinedbyhundredsofthousandsofothers,peoplewhowouldbravethecold,andworse,forthenextthreemonths.

TheEuromaidan,astheprotestswerecalledatfirst,wasmulticulturalandanti-oligarchical.Ukrainiansweretakingrisksforalocalgoalthatishardtounderstandbeyondthepost-Sovietsetting:Europeanizationasameanstoundo
corruptionandoligarchy.Byenrichingasmallclique,writesPieniekinhiscollectionofreportagefromUkraine,Yanukovychbroughtthestatetothebrinkofactualcollapse.InDecember2013Russianleadersmadefinancialaidto
Yanukovychsgovernmentcontingentuponclearingthestreetsofprotesters.ThegovernmentssubsequentescalationofrepressionfirstthesuspensionoftherightstoassemblyandfreeexpressioninJanuary2014,andthenthe
massshootingofprotestersinFebruaryturnedthepopularmovementintoarevolution.OnFebruary22,YanukovychfledtoRussia.(Twoyearslater,hispoliticalstrategist,PaulManafort,wouldresurfaceintheUS,playingthesame
roleforDonaldTrump.)Afterthefailureofitspolicyofrepressionbyremotecontrol,RussiainvadedUkrainesCrimeanpeninsula.ByMarchRussianswhohadtakenpartinthatcampaignwerearrivingintheindustrialDonbasregion
ofsoutheasternUkraine,Yanukovychsonetimepowerbase,tohelporganizeaseparatistmovement.1

InhabitantsofsoutheasternUkrainehadjustasmuchreasontobedissatisfiedwithcorruptionasanyoneelse,anditwasreasonabletofearthattherevolutioninKievwasnothingmorethanaswingofthependulumfromsome
oligarchstoothers.Justhowthesesentimentsmighthavebeenresolvedthroughnegotiationsorelectionswewillneverknow,sincetheRussianinterventionprecludedboth,bringinginsteadfearandbloodshedthatchanged
everyonespoliticalcalculations.Sloviansk,asmallcityintheDonbas,wasanearlygatheringpointforseparatists.WhenPieniekarrivedthereinApril2014,hefoundtheplacecrawlingwitharmoredpersonnelcarriers,and
understoodthatlocaloppositiontotherevolutioninKievwassupportedbyoutsideforces.TheRussiancitizenIgorGirkin,aveteranoftheCrimeaninvasionandthecommanderoftheseparatistforces,hadmadeSlovianskhis
headquarters.

UnderGirkinssupervisionapeoplesmayorarrestedtheelectedone,andthenewauthoritiesmurderedtwopeoplewhoopposedthem.WhentheUkrainiangovernmentsentpolicementoinvestigatethecrime,theywerearrested
bytheseparatistsandphotographedinhumiliatingpositionsimagessuggestingthelocaldissolutionofUkrainianstatepower.AsPieniekreported,powernowresidedintheformerheadquartersoftheUkrainianstatepolice,
whichRussiansoldiersandofficersusedastheirbase.

ByMarch2014CrimeahadbeenannexedbyRussia,andinAprilfurtherRussianannexationsofUkrainianterritoryseemedpossible.PutinspokethatmonthofaNewRussia(Novorossiya),meaningDonetskandfiveotherregions
ofeasternandsouthernUkraine.TheGermanhistorianKarlSchlgelwasfollowingPutinslanguagewithinterest.Asherecallsinhisnewbook,PutinmaintainedthattheuseoftheRussianlanguagebeyondRussiasborders
justifiedRussianinvasion.Iftheunityoflanguagegroupswereacceptedasaprincipleofrule,theninternationalstateborderswouldceasetomatter.

WorldWarIIbeganfromsucharguments(thinkoftheAnschlussandtheendofAustria,theSudetenlandandthedestructionofCzechoslovakia,andDanzigasapretextforwaragainstPoland).ThusthefoundersofEuropean
integrationinsistedthatstatebordersberespectedandissuesofhumanrightsberesolvedwithintheirnecessarilyimperfectconfines.PieniekwascontinuallystruckbythefactthatseparatistscharacterizedtheEuropeanorderas
fascist,evenastheyspokeofthesignificanceofcommonlanguageandcommonblood.Whattheymeant,herealized,wassimplythateveryonewhodoesnotsupportRussiaisafascist.

Ukraineisabilingualcountrywithacosmopolitanrulingclass.BecausealmostallUkrainiansspeakRussianaswellasUkrainian,theybelongtowhatPutincallstheRussianworld(russkiimir).Yetthisworld,asSchlgelshows,is
bynomeansalignedwiththepoliticsofMoscow.AshemovedthroughtheUkrainianeastandsouthin2014,makingeruditehistoricalsketchesofcities,hefoundanappealingvariety.Kharkiv,auniversitytownneartheRussian
border,isgovernedbypeoplewhotakeasympatheticviewofRussiabuthaverejectedseparatism.Dnipropetrovsk,theonetimeSovietrocketcity,becamethegatheringpointofRussian-speakingUkrainianvolunteerswhofought
againstseparatistsandRussians.CosmopolitanOdessaexcelledinmockeryofPutin.2

ThecityofDonetskfelltotheseparatistsforlocalreasons.3Inspring2014,itslocaloligarchswereindecisiveandtried,disastrously,toplayKievandMoscowagainsteachother.Thishadlittletodowithethnicitythemostimportant
Donetskoligarch,RinatAkhmetov,isaVolgaTatar.Withlocalpoweruncertain,RussianveteransoftheCrimeancampaigncouldtraveltoDonetskatatimewhenUkrainiancentralauthoritieshinderedsuchpeoplefromreaching
othereastUkrainiancitiessuchasKharkiv.AfterwardRussiantroopscouldmoveintoDonetskacrossaborderthatUkrainianauthoritieswereunabletocontrol.SomeoftheRussianregularsoldierswereSiberians,andmanyofthe
irregularswereChechens.ThuspeoplewhodidnotspeakRussianwerekillingpeoplewhodidinordertodefendtheRussianlanguageinaplacewhereitwasneverthreatened.4Schlgelwrites:

ThecityofDonetsk,oncehometoamillionpeople,becameaghosttown,terrorizedbybandsofcriminals,Chechenwarveterans,specialforces,Russianhightechexperts,andpeoplewhohavemadecareersinpublicrelations.

Thatlastcategorywasasimportantasalltheothers.

DespitetheannexationofCrimeainMarch2014andseparatistcontrolofthecityofDonetskinApril,byMayRussiawasfacinghumiliatingdefeat.ThroughoutthecountrytheRussianinterventionhad,asPienieknotes,
strengthenedthesenseofUkrainianidentity.TheCrimeanmodelofRussiancontrolwasirrelevantinalmostallofUkraineandwasfailinginthesoutheast.InCrimeaRussiahadanetworkoflocalturncoats,considerablesupport
fromlocalRussians,andmilitarybasesfromwhichtolaunchaninvasion.WithoutsuchresourcesthelimiteddetachmentsofRussianspecialforces,knowninUkrainefortheirlackofinsigniaaslittlegreenmen,couldnotcontrolthe
southeast.FourofthesixsoutheasterndistrictsthatPutincalledNewRussiahadproducednoseparatistmovement.TheseparatistholdontheDonetskandLuhanskregionswaspartialandshaky.

TheUkrainianleadershipnowdecidedtofight.AlthoughtheUkrainianarmedforcesweresmall,theyquicklydrovebackseparatists.Ukraineusedairpowertodeploytroopsanddestroysomeofthearmortheseparatistshadseized
fromUkrainianforcesorobtainedfromRussia.InMay2014KievwasabuzzwithrumorsofaUkrainianoffensiveonDonetsk.Tostoptherout,MoscowhadtobringdowntheUkrainianairforce.InJuneRussiantroopscrossedthe
borderwithtanksandantiaircraftbatteries.AboutadozenUkrainianaircraftwerequicklyshotdown.5

TheRussiandecisiontoescalatebroughtaboutamajorwarcrime.OneofthenumerousRussianmilitaryconvoysinthoseweeksdepartedfromitsbaseinKurskonJune23.ItwasadetachmentoftheRussian53rdAirDefense
Brigade,boundforDonetskwithaBUKantiaircraftmissilelauncherbearingthemarking332.OnthemorningofJuly17,thisBUKlauncherwashauledfromDonetsktotheUkrainiantownofSnizhne,andthenbroughtunderitsown
powertoafarmsteadsouthofthattown.

Butforwhathappenednext,thistransportofaRussianweaponwouldhavesimplybeenoneofseveralphotographedbylocalsandignoredbytheworld.MalaysianAirlinesFlight17,carrying298passengersfromAmsterdamto
KualaLumpur,wasflyingjustthenoversoutheasternUkraine.At1:20itwasstruckbyhundredsofhigh-energyprojectilesreleasedbytheexplosionofa9N314MwarheadcarriedbyamissilefiredfromthatBUKlauncher.The
projectilesrippedthroughthecockpitandinstantlykilledthecockpitcrew,fromwhosebodypartssomeofthemetalwaslaterextracted.Theaircraftwasblowntopiecesatitscruisingaltitudeof33,000feet,itspassengersandtheir
baggagescatteredoveraradiusofthirtymiles.6

SchlgelcouldfollowtheconvoyoftheBUKonhiscomputerscreen.TheyoungjournalistPieniekracedtothesitewherethelargestpiecesofwreckageandanumberofcorpseswerefound.Althoughhewasthefirstreporteron
thescene,onedayafterthecrash,itsstoryhadalreadybeentoldonRussiantelevision.TwoRussiannetworksclaimedthatUkrainianaircrafthadshotdowntheplane.Threeothernetworksprovidedamotive:Ukrainianauthorities
hadintendedtoshootdownanaircraftcarryingPutin,andhadmadeamistake.Longbeforethe298corpseshadbeenassembledandidentified,thevictimshadbeendefinedintheRussianmedia:theRussianpresidentandhis
people.

Inthedaysthatfollowed,Russianmediapurveyedfurtherversionsofthedisaster:fictional,contradictory,andsometimesgrotesque.WhatRussianscallthezombiestory,thattheCIAfilledtheplanewithcorpsesandexplodeditby
remotecontrol,enjoyssurprisinglongevity.TheRussiantacticsareeasiertomockthandismiss.AlargemajorityofRussians(86percentin2014,85percentin2015)blameUkraineforshootingdowntheflightonly2percentblamed
theirowncountry,withmostoftheremainderoptingfortheUnitedStates.7

HowdidRussiareachapoint,initsmediaandpolitics,wherethefactofRussiansoldiersmistakenlyshootingdownacivilianairlinerduringaRussianinvasionofaforeigncountrycouldbetransformedintoadurablesenseof
Russianvictimhood?Forthatmatter,howdidRussianstakesoeasilytotheideathatUkraine,seenasafraternalnation,hadsuddenlybecomeanenemygovernedbyfascists?8HowdoRussianstakeprideinaRussianinvasion
whileatthesametimedenyingthatoneistakingplace?ConsiderthedarkjokenowmakingtheroundsinRussia.Wifetohusband:OursonwaskilledinactioninUkraine.Husbandtowife:Weneverhadason.

BoththehistorianSchlgelandthetelevisionproducerandwriterPeterPomerantsevmakethecasethatthisextraordinaryflexibilitywastheconsequenceofearlierdevelopmentswithinRussiaitself.Theso-calledUkrainiancrisis,
maintainsSchlgel,isaboveallaRussiancrisis.

AsthereleaseofthePanamaPapershasonceagainconfirmed,RussiansandUkrainiansconfrontthesamecentralproblem:theweaknessoftheruleoflaw.UnlikeUkraine,Russiahasnaturalgasandoil,astrongarmy,anda
propagandaapparatusthatcanbeusedtodelay,distract,andconfuse.SchlgelobservesthattheRussianleadershipfailedtousetheprofitsfromenergyexportstodiversifytheeconomyduringtheflushfirstdecadeofthetwenty-
firstcenturywhenpriceswerehigh.Weshould,hethinks,seethepoliciesofinstitutionaloligarchy,militarybuildup,andmediacoordinationasinternalandmisguidedRussianchoicesthatmadeforeignwarslikely.Henotesthatother
observershavefoundtheRussianpropagandaofethnicjusticeandantifascismmoreappealingthanthebasicsofpoliticaleconomy.PropagandaconceitsofthiskindallowRussianstodefinethemselvesasthevictimstheypermit
outsiders,asSchlgelnotes,todiscussthewarwithoutknowinganythingaboutRussiaitself.

PomerantsevspentthatglitteringdecadeofmismanagementinMoscow,andhebecamethechroniclerofothershopesandlosses.Hisbookpresentsitselfasthememoirofayoungartistwithafilmhewantstomakebutcannot.It
wouldbeaboutthesuicidesofRussianfashionmodels,thebeautifulgirlswhoseemedtodosowellinpost-SovietRussiabutthentooktheirownlivesbyjumpingfrombuildings.Hedescribesagenerationoforphaned,high-heeled
girlsseekingsecurity,andnotfindingit,fromoldermenwhogrewwealthyduringthe2000s.Themoodofthebookisoneofvertigo,ofcrashesthatcanbedelayedanddeniedbutnotavoided.Theimagesofoneofhissuicide
modelswerecirculatedinMoscowlongafterherdeath,promisingenchantment.
JeromeSessini/MagnumPhotos

Unarmedanti-governmentprotestersbeingfireduponbysnipers,MaidanSquare,Kiev,February2014

PomerantsevarrivedinMoscowasthemediumoftelevisionwasbroughtunderstatecontrol.InOctober2002,Russiansecurityforceskilled129hostagesduringanattackonChechenterroristswhohadtakenoveraMoscow
theater.Televisioncamerasrecordedthedeathsofthehostages.Afterthat,Pomerantsevsays,thelastprivatetelevisionchannelwasbroughttoheel,andthestatebegantoorchestrateamisleadingpluralism:theTVstationslooked
different,butsaidthesamething.Leadersofacceptedpartiesmightgetmoreorlesstimeondifferentchannels.TheirpresencewasmeantonlytoconfirmtheinevitabilityofPutin.

AsPomerantsevrecalls,whenthebeetroot-facedcommunistsandthespittingnationalistsrowonTVdebatingshows,theviewerisleftwiththefeelingthat,comparedtothislot,thePresidentistheonlysanecandidate.
Pomerantsevconsidersthefateofawomanwhocreatedherownapparentlylegitimatechemicalbusinessawayfrompropagandaandpolitics.Butthereisnoescape:entrepreneursinRussiaarevulnerabletoarbitraryfiscaland
legalreviewsatthewhimsofrivals,andshewasarrested(ostensiblyfordealinginillegalnarcotics).Behindbarsthesurrealbecomesunavoidable:Blackiswhiteandwhiteisblack,asPomerantsevparaphrasesthe
businesswoman.Thereisnoreality.Whatevertheysayisreality.[She]begantoscream.

AlthoughPomerantsevpresentssuchstoriesasanelementofapostmodernworld,amoreearthboundreadingmightbethatRussia,likeUkraine,hasfailedinthemoderntaskofestablishingtheruleoflaw.ManyRussians,forthat
matter,reactedtothisfailureinmuchthesamewayasUkrainiansdidin2013.ShortlyafterPomerantsevleftMoscow,Russiansprotestedthefalsifiedparliamentaryelectionsoflate2011.Putinclaimedthatmembersofopposition
groupshadrespondedtoasignalfromSecretaryofStateHillaryClinton,andRussianpolicearrestedtheirleaders.ThisisonereasonmuchoftheRussianeliteopenlybacksTrumpoverClinton.(Theother,ofcourse,istheir
convictionthatTrumpwilldestroyUSpower.)

ThoughtheRussianmediafollowedPutinslinein2011,theveryfactoftheprotestsseemedtoshowthatmediacontrolandcoordinationwerenotenough.TheemergingstratagemwastomergeRussiannewswithforeignnews:to
makeitseemasifmuchthathappenedabroadwasaboutRussia,sinceforeignleadershadnothingontheirmindsbutthedisruptionofRussianpolitics.InthiswayRussiasgrowingsocialandeconomicproblemscouldbeignored
evenasRussiansbelievedthattheywereatthecenterofworldattention.

Aftertheprotests,Putinturnedawayfromthemiddleclassandembracednationalpopulism.TherejectionoftheEUasdecadentandthecreationoftheEurasianalternativealsoarosefromthisexperience.SowhenUkrainians
protestedinfavoroftheEUinlateNovember2013,Russianleadersunderstoodthiswithinthestorylinetheywerewritingforthemselves.RatherthandwellingonthesimilaritiesbetweenUkrainianandRussianproblemsandthe
uncomfortableabilityofUkrainianstodemandreform,theRussianmediadefinedtheEuromaidanasaneruptionofEuropeandecadence.

TheEuropeanUnionwasalreadycalledGayropanowtheEuromaidanwascalledGayeuromaidan.OnceRussiantroopsinvadedCrimea,happyendingsgavewayontelevisionscreenstosplendidlittlewars.Russiaseconomic
declinecontinued,butthiscouldnowbepresentedasthepriceofforeignglory.ThroughSeptember2015,themainsubjectcouldbeUkraine.ThatOctober,itchangedtoSyria.

ThenewRussianwarsareaBonapartismwithoutaNapoleon,temporarilyresolvingdomestictensionsindoomedforeignadventures,butlackingavisionfortheworld.Idealsarerecognizedinordertobemocked.Thisisanewtype
ofKremlinpropaganda,writesPomerantsev,lessaboutarguingagainsttheWestwithacounter-modelasintheColdWar,moreaboutslippinginsideitslanguagetoplayandtauntitfrominside.Authoritarianismisthebestofall
possiblesystemsthethinkinggoesbecausetheothersare,despiteappearances,nobetter.Lyingintheserviceofthestatusquoisperfectlyjustified,sincetheothersidesliesaremorepernicious.

Allproblems,inthisworldview,arisefromillusoryhopesofimprovementarousedbyforeignpowers.Policepowerisauthentic,whereaspopularmovementsarenot.Killingintheserviceofthestatusquoisnecessary,sincenothingis
moredangerousthanchange.InthepartsofsoutheasternUkraineunderRussianandseparatistcontrol,millionsofpeoplehavelosttheirhomesandthousandstheirlives,butthepropertyoftheoligarchsisuntouchedandthose
separatistswhobelievedtheywerefightingagainstoligarchyhavebeenmurdered.9

Mustprotestsforjusticebringforeigninvasion,stupefyingpropaganda,andsqualidmurderinthenameofmaintainingthewealthofafew?ThisistheessenceofRussianforeignpolicy:enforcingtheprinciplethatpubliceffortsto
changepoliticsforthebettermustbringwarandnormalizationtousethetermmadenotoriousaftertheRedArmyanditsWarsawPactalliesputdownthePragueSpringin1968.Pomerantsev,whoisconcernedwiththe
connectionsbetweenthelate-Sovietandthepost-Soviet,deftlyrevealsthesignificanceoftherevolutionsof1968asaturningpointinSovietpoliticsandindissidentpoliticalthought.

WhenSovietforcescrushedtheCzechoslovakshopesforsocialismwithahumanface,PomerantsevsmotherwasaSovietschoolgirl.AKGBofficerwhohadtakenpartintheinvasionlatervisitedherclassroom,regalingthe
childrenwithstoriesofthedefeatoftheCzechoslovakreformmovement.Untilthenthegirlhadbelievedtheofficialversion:thattheSovietarmyhadintervenedtostopaWestern-backedfascistcoup.Surprisedbywhatshewas
hearing,sheasked:Youmeantheywerenthappytoseeyou?ThelooktheKGBmangavehersaiditall:shewastounderstandthattheofficialversionwasalie,andthatthedutyofSovietcitizenswastoknowinglylivewithinsuch
lies.

AftertheinvasionofCzechoslovakia,SovietleaderLeonidBrezhnevpromisedfraternalassistancetoanyEasternEuropeancountrythatseemedtodepartfromtheofficialline.ToSovietcitizensBrezhnevproposedreallyexisting
socialism,thenotionthatdespitethedrearinessoflifenothingbetterwaspossible.ForKGBmeneducatedinthe1970s,suchasVladimirPutin,instabilityandchangeweretheenemiesmorethananyparticularidea.Workinginthe
1980sinEastGermany,hecoulddeludehimselfthatthestatusquowasdurablethoughbythenEastGermanstabilitydependeduponWesterneconomies.ItwouldnotoccurtohimthatBrezhnevsbetonenergyexportsandforeign
interventionwasamistakeonceinpower,Putinwouldrepeatit.Thevalueofabarrelofcrudeoil(intodaysdollars)whentheUSSRinvadedAfghanistanin1979waspeakingat$101whentheUSSRself-destructedin1991itwas
$34.WhenthatRussianBUKconvoyarrivedinDonetskinJune2014,thepriceofoilwaspeakingat$112asIwriteitis$39.

EasternEuropeandissidentssuchasPomerantsevsparentsdrewadifferentlessonfromthewreckageof1968:theimportanceoftruthasthefoundationofalifeindignityatermthatUkrainiansappliedtotheirrevolutionin
2014.10Schlgel,achildoftheWesternEuropeanstudentmovementsof1968,istroubledthatmembersofhisowngenerationpreferstagnationtorevolution.Hewantstoknowwhythegenerationwhoseownmemoriesaredirected
toParisinMayof1968didnotreacttoKiev.WhydidsofewpeoplewhoidentifywiththeleftnotseetheUkrainianrevolutionassuch,andnotcondemnthecounterrevolutionaryRussianinvasionaccordingly?Partoftheansweris
thatmanyintheWestwhoremember1968recallParisandnotPrague,andsoforgetthereactionarymilitarismoftheBrezhnevdoctrine.Schlgelisfundamentallyconcernedaboutadeep,metaphysicalillness.Hewritesthathis
owngeneration,whichhasknownEuropeinbettertimes,prefersnostalgiatoknowledge.AlifelongstudentofRussia,hesawhisownjourneytoUkraineasanhourofverificationandself-verification.
 TherewasnoOrwelloftheUkrainianrevolution,butreadersofSchlgelandPieniekwillgetsomethingliketheeverydaygritandpoliticalinsightofHomagetoCatalonia.Pieniekriskedhislifetoseewhathesaw,asdidother
braveandtalentedWesternjournalists.11Alongtheway,perhaps,hebenefitedfromtheseeminglyinnocuousnatureofhiswork.Becauseseparatistsbelievedthatonlytelevisioncoveragemattered,theykeptaskingwherehis
cameramanwas.Perhapsbecausehewasfilingforprint,Pieniekfounditeasiertoextendconversationsandmovefromonesideofthelinestotheother.Afterhespentdayswithaseparatistthetwomenrealizedthattheyhad
bothbeenontheMaidanonthesameday,theonebeatingandtheothergettingbeaten.ItsayssomethingaboutPieniekstactthathekepttherelationshipgoing.Pieniektakesnostandsandstrikesnoposes,butmodestly
exemplifiestheolddissidentidealofseekingaftersmalltruths,atrisktooneself,inaworldofbiglies.

Withsimilarhumility,PomerantsevpresentshisRussianfriendsassimilartohisWesternfriends.Theirworldisjustaturnofthekaleidoscopeaway.Sincethepublicationofhisbook,PomerantsevhasnotedtheaffinityofTrumps
propagandawiththeRussianmodel.ThefragilityofRussiaspresentregimeislittleconsolation,sinceitsmethodsofrulecouldworkintheWesthere,saysPomerantsev,isgoingtobethere.Ifthesinofintellectualsinthe
twentiethcenturywastoproposeutopianvisions,thatofthetwenty-firstistodenyallpossibilityofchange.Schlgelfearsanewtrahisondesclercs,anabandonmentofthesearchfortruththat,saysPomerantsev,bringsthe
bottomlessskepticismthatmakespoliticalactionseempointless.Wecannotgiveup,Schlgelconcludes,onthedifferencebetweenfactandfiction.Somethingsaretrue,andsomethingsarepossible.

ForalegalaccountingoftheseeventsseeThomasD.Grant,AggressionAgainstUkraine:Territory,Responsibility,andInternationalLaw(PalgraveMacmillan,2015).

AsSerhyYekelchyknotes:UkrainianvolunteersandconscriptsaremoreoftenthannotthemselvesspeakingRussian,meaningthattheyarefightingforacivicratherthananethnicconceptofUkrainianidentity.SeeTheConflictinUkraine:WhatEverybodyNeedstoKnow(OxfordUniversity
Press,2015),p.18.

Onprewarloyalties,seeGrigorePop-ElechesandGraemeRobertson,DoCrimeansActuallyWanttoJoinRussia?,TheWashingtonPost,March6,2014.

InFebruary2014UkrainianauthoritiesproposedtherepealofalawthatallowedRussiantobedeclaredaregionallanguage.Theydidnotinfactrepealit.The(nearlyuniversal)useofRussianintheDonbaswasnotaffectedeitherbythepassageofthelaworthediscussionofitsrepeal.

InMay2014Ukrainehelddemocraticpresidentialelections,legitimizingtheneworder.PutinhasnowadmittedthedirectRussianmilitaryroleinbothCrimeaandintheDonbas.AthisDecember17,2015,pressconferencehesaid:Weneversaidtherewerenotpeopletherewhocarried
outcertaintasksincludinginthemilitarysphere.TheRussianmilitaryjournalistArkadyBabchenkocharacterizedsuchcircumlocutionsasinfantilismraisedtotherankofstatepolicy.

BothRussianandUkrainianofficialshaveclaimed,falsely,nottopossesstherelevantweapons.Threemajorreportsallowastraightforwardreconstructionoftheevent:thatoftheDutchSafetyBoard,releasedonOctober13,2015,andtheopen-sourceseriesofinvestigationscarriedoutby
theinvestigativejournalismwebsitesBellingcatandCorrect!v.Whereasthefirstfocusesonthedestructionoftheairplane,thelattertwodescribethemovementsoftheRussianBUK.InDecember2015BellingcatsubmittedtoDutchprosecutorsalistofRussiansoldiersbelievedtohave
personalknowledgeofthecircumstancesoftheshootingdownofMH17.

LevadaCenter,reportofJuly27,2015.

Inthe2014parliamentaryelections,whichtookplaceunderthepressureofwar,neitherofthetworight-wingpartiesclearedthe5percentthresholdforparticipation(RightSectorreceived1.8percentandSvoboda4.7percentofthepopularvote).

SeeAndriyPortnov,HowEasternUkraineWasLost,OpenDemocracy,January14,2016.

10.10

SeeKieranWilliams,TheRussianView(s)ofthePragueSpring,JournalofColdWarStudies,Vol.14,No.2(Spring2012).

11

Traditionalprintreportingprovidedthehumanizingcountertotheeasiertropesofpropaganda.SeeTimJudah,InWartime:StoriesfromUkraine(London:AllenLane,2015).

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:VRT
Date:Thu,May26,2016at10:58AM
Subject:HOPEYOUCAUGHTTHIS:TakingWarSeriously

To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
TakingWarSeriously:Russia-NATOShowdownNoLongerJustFiction

ByJamesSherr

May.25201619:24

Lastedited19:24

YvesHerman/ReutersANATOflagfliesattheAllianceheadquartersinBrussels.

NATOsformerDeputySupremeAlliedCommander,GeneralSirRichardShirreffsnewbook,2017:WarWithRussia,isaworkoffiction.ButitssubjectaclashbetweenNATOandRussiaasearlyasnext
yearisnotcompletelyfanciful.

WhenRussiaattackedUkrainein2014,italsoattackedtheHelsinki-basedsecurityorderofEurope.Inplaceofthissystem,PresidentVladimirPutiniscallingforarevivedYaltasystem,basedonspheresof
influenceandrespect.HealsohasinvokedthebordersofhistoricRussiaandproclaimedarighttodefendRussiancompatriotsabroad.

AndiftreatiesandagreementsarenotsacrosancttotheKremlin,whyshouldNATObordersbesacrosanct?ItisonlyreasonablethatNATOsBalticalliesaskthisquestionandthatothers,beginningwithTurkey,
dosoaswell.
SofiaMiroyedova

Theirconcernsareheightenedbymilitarydevelopmentsassignificantastodayspoliticalones.SincethewarwithGeorgiain2008,Russiahasmadeasteady,cumulativeinvestmentinthecapacitytowagelocal JamesSherr
andregionalwarthroughouttheinteriorandontheperipheryoftheformerU.S.S.R.Thismeansfull-spectrum,non-linearwar,fromnon-attributableattacksbypolitelittlementofirstuseofnuclearweapons.Italso
meansinformationwar,fromdisinformationtocyberattacks,andacoordinatedefforttomobilizethestate.

Whatisthepurposeoftheinvestment?TheshortansweristowageproactivedefenseagainstgeopoliticalandcivilizationalencirclementbytheWest.ThatstatesonRussiasperipherymightwelcomeWesternencroachmentisgrist
tothemillofthoseinRussiawhoassessthreatsandrespondtothem.InsidetheKremlinsfebrileworld,anunbrokenchainofmalignintentconnectsNATOandEUenlargement,humanitarianinterventions,coloredrevolutionsand
regimechanges,culminatingwithRussiaitself.ToaskinthesecircumstanceswhetherRussiaspolicyisoffensiveordefensiveistoplaywithwords.

TodaytheBalticstatesarethreatenedpolitically.TheaimofRussianpolicyistopersuadethemthat,insideoroutsidetheEUandNATO,theylieinagreyzoneandshouldbehaveaccordingly.Tothisend,military-forcegroupswitha
capacitytoseizeRigaandTallinnin60hoursareanasset,evenifitwouldbefollytoemploytheminpractice.UntilNATOtakesstepstorectifythemilitarybalance,Russiawillusefearasaweapontounderminethepoliticalbalance.

ButwhatistheriskthattheBalticswillbeattackedmilitarily?SinceNATOcannotknow,itmustnotallowadangerousimbalanceofforcestoarise.Unfortunately,italreadyhasarisen.From1991to2008,theWestbelievedthere
wouldbenomilitarythreatsinEurope,andnationalarmedforceswererestructuredaccordingly.TheimpactoftheGeorgianwarontheseorthodoxieswasminimal.ButCrimeasannexationhaslaunchedanintellectualrevolution.
Thoseatitscuttingedgearerealistswhoknowthatvulnerabilitiescannotberepairedbysummitdeclarationsandband-aids.

TheyalsoknowthatRussiasweaknessesareastellingasitsstrengths.Today,RussiahasanenhancedversionofthearmythatDefenseMinisterSergeiShoiguspredecessor,AnatolySerdyukov,aspiredtobuild.Theironyisthat
hewasthefirstRussiandefenseministertoremoveNATOasthebaselineofRussiandefensesufficiency.

Thecoreoftodaysmilitarycapabilityliesin30-40maneuverunits,nuclearanddual-usestrikesystemsandmulti-layeredairdefense.Thatisaformidablecapabilityforlimitedconflict,butitisnotthecapabilityRussiasGeneralStaff
woulddesignforfull-scalewaragainstNATO.Russiasambitiouslonger-termplansconfirmasmuch.ButtheseplansarerunningintotheusualRussianbuffershuman,industrialandinstitutionalandnotallofthemcanbe
plannedoutofexistence,leastofallinadamagedanddeterioratingeconomy.
Therefore,thechallengeforNATOisnodifferentthanitusedtobeinWestBerlin:topersuadeRussiathatanywarmeansfull-scalewar.Tothisend,itisnotnecessarytodenyRussiaavictoryintheBalticstates.Itisnecessaryto
denyitaquickvictory.Thisisadoabletask,butthatdoesnotmeanitwillbedone.TherealsoisnocertaintythatPutinsChekisttestingandprobingofweaknesswillnotprovokeatougherresponsethanhecansafelymanage.

JamesSherrisAssociateFellow,ChathamHouse
 From: KyleWilson<wilsonkyle81@gmail.com>
Senttime: 05/11/201604:49:40PM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: Fwd:AMandDAattheHoC

SentfrommyiPad

Beginforwardedmessage:

From:StephenFortescue<s.fortescue@unsw.edu.au>
Date:12May201609:19:09AEST
To:KyleWilson<wilsonkyle81@gmail.com>
Cc:JohnBesemeres<john.besemeres@anu.edu.au>
Subject:Re:AMandDAattheHoC

Lostforwordsmyself.It'scertainlythecasethatif-Lordsaveus-Trumpweretobecomepresident,justtreating
himasaclownwouldnolongerbeanoption,andIsupposeitbehovesforeignpolicytypestothinkaboutwhat
approachtheymighttake,justincase.Buttosuggestthetwocandidatesaremuchofamuchness!
I'llbekindtoJulianandassumeit'shisEnglishdiscomfortatanythingthatsoundslikewe'regettingcarriedaway,
lettingemotiontakeover.Itcouldn'tpossiblybe,couldit,thatit'sbecauseTrumpsaysnicerthingsaboutPutinthan
Clinton?
TheoddthingisthatJuliandoesn'tsaythingslikethisoneonone-ormaybewebothtrimoursailstofindahappy,
conflict-freezonewhenwe'retogether.ButevenwhenhewasherewithSilvana,hespentmoretimefightingwithher
thanwithmeorAlyona.
IncidentallyIdidn'tgettheimpressionfromthetranscriptthatAMorDAwerecallingfornegotiationswithPutin.
Theywerejustaskingforarealisticapproachifsuchnegotiationswereundertaken.I'vemeetDerrickafewtimes,I
think,butIcan'tsayIknowhim.ButIknowAndrewquitewell.HegetsupsetatexcitedclaimsthatRussia's
economyisgoingtocollapsetomorrow,orthatPutin'sgoingtobombTallinnthedayafter.Buthehasnoillusions
aboutPutinorthosearoundhim,andisabletotalkaboutitwithoutconstantlydragginginthemisdeedsoftheUS.
WhetherhethinksnegotiationswithPutinwouldgetanywhere,tobehonestI'venoidea,buthecertainlywouldn't
bestarryeyedaboutit.
I'vetypedoutsomecommentsinresponsetoRodric'srequest,butI'mnotsurethatI'mgametosendthem.
Stephen

SentfrommyiPad

On12May2016,at08:25,KyleWilson<wilsonkyle81@gmail.com>wrote:

LookslikeaSilvana-Julianprovocation,pointlesstorespond.IndeedIcant,lostforwords:not
entirelyunfairindeed.

ImflabbergastedthatJulianisineffectendorsingTrump.IguessIshouldntbe.

Beginforwardedmessage:

From:JulianCooper<J.M.COOPER@bham.ac.uk>
Subject:RE:AMandDAattheHoC
Date:11May201611:09:01pmAEST
To:SilvanaMalle<silvana.malle@univr.it>,'KyleWilson'
<wilsonkyle81@gmail.com>
Cc:'RodricBraithwaite'<rqbraithwaite@mac.com>,'StephenFortescue'
<s.fortescue@unsw.edu.au>,"phill_hanson@outlook.com"
<phill_hanson@outlook.com>,"john.besemeres@anu.edu.au"
<john.besemeres@anu.edu.au>,RichardConnolly<R.Connolly@bham.ac.uk>,
"keith.bush017@gmail.com"<keith.bush017@gmail.com>,'RodericLyne'
<rodericlyne@hotmail.com>,"rghorvath@yahoo.com"
<rghorvath@yahoo.com>,'ElizabethTeague'<teagueeliza@aol.com>,
"Ian@cer.org.uk"<Ian@cer.org.uk>,'BoboLo'<bobolo_uk@yahoo.co.uk>,
"carolina.vendil.pallin@foi.se"<carolina.vendil.pallin@foi.se>,'KlausSegbers'
<segbers@zedat.fu-berlin.de>,"HansonPhl@aol.com"<HansonPhl@aol.com>

IdidindeeddrawSilvana'sattentiontotheNationalInterestandtheCenterofthesamename
(presidentDimitriSimes,honorarychair,Kissinger)asIthinkitdoesquiteagoodjobin
keepingaliveseriousdiscussionofforeignpolicyissues,whetheroneagreesordisagreeswith
theviewsexpressed.IttooktheinitiativeinofferingTrumpanopportunitytospellouthis
viewsonforeignpolicy,whichIthoughtwasworthwhilegiventhathemayendupasthenext
president.CertainlyhereintheUK,thegeneralresponsetoTrumpistotreathimasajoke,
justaclownnotqualifiedforhighoffice,whichIdon'tfindverysensible.LikeSilvana,Iamnot
afanofeitheroftheleadcandidates.HereisatakeonClintonontheNationalInterest
websitetodayinmyviewnotentirelyunfair:
http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-skeptics/clintons-road-the-white-house-paved-war-16068

Julian

From:SilvanaMalle[silvana.malle@univr.it]
Sent:11May201613:44
To:'KyleWilson'
Cc:'RodricBraithwaite'JulianCooper'Stephen
Fortescue'phill_hanson@outlook.comjohn.besemeres@anu.edu.auRichard
Connollykeith.bush017@gmail.com'RodericLyne'rghorvath@yahoo.com'Elizabeth
Teague'Ian@cer.org.uk'BoboLo'carolina.vendil.pallin@foi.se'Klaus
Segbers'HansonPhl@aol.com
Subject:R:AMandDAattheHoC

Kyle,IhavenopreferenceforeitherTrumporClinton.PoorAmericans,notagood
alternativefromanypointofview.
Interestingtome,thissideofourcomplicateword,isnotinghowtheforeignpolicy
landscapeisnowgraduallychangingintheUS.Hagelisonlythelatestamonghigh
profileconservativesechoingwhatonecanreadalmostregularlyfromNationalInterest
(courtesyofJuliantodrawmyattentiontothispublication).s
Da: Kyle Wilson [mailto:wilsonkyle81@gmail.com]
Inviato: mercoled 11 maggio 2016 13:45
A: Silvana Malle
Cc: Rodric Braithwaite; Julian Cooper; Stephen Fortescue; <phill_hanson@outlook.com>;
<john.besemeres@anu.edu.au>; Richard Connolly; <keith.bush017@gmail.com>; Roderic
Lyne; <rghorvath@yahoo.com>; Elizabeth Teague; <Ian@cer.org.uk>; Bobo Lo;
<carolina.vendil.pallin@foi.se>; Klaus Segbers; <HansonPhl@aol.com>
Oggetto: Re: AM and DA at the HoC

DearSilvana,

I'mpuzzled:doyouthinkweshouldurgeourAmericanfriendsandacquaintancestovote
forTrump?AndthatweshouldhopethatTrumpiselected?OramImissingsomething?

I'mgratefultoRodricforencouragingustoreadthetranscript(Ihavetoadmitthatits
lengthdauntedme).ItcoverssomuchterritoryindetailthatIshallspareyouandshan't
offercomment.Obviouslythetwospecialistsareexceptionallywellinformedandtheir
assessmentsstrikemeasdeeplyconsideredandjudicious.Inthemain.

ThepointthatinspeakingtotheRussiansoneneedstohaveaclearideaofwhatone
seekstoachieveseemstometimely--itoughttobeobvioustoeveryonebutitisn't!

Gawd,wheredidthisKawczynskispringfrom?RTshouldrecruithim.Howunfairof
DanilevskitoaccusethePolesofbeingthe'SlavicJudases'.

ThattheFSBdecidedtosilenceLitvinenkowithoutseekingPutin'sagreementrunscounter
toeverythingI'velearnedabouthowRussiaworks.Litvinenkohadtobesilencedbecause
ofknowledgehehadthatcoulddamagePutin.Thatisnotonlylogical:itistheviewofthe
onlypersonIknowwhoknowsPutinquitewell.

Andit'softenforgottenthattheoperationwasexposedbysheerchance:itmayhavebeen
carriedoutclumsily,withthattrailofPoloniumacrossEurope,buttheideawasingenious.
AndhaditnotbeenforfortheacuityofaBritishscientistitwouldnothavebeen
exposed.

Kyle

SentfrommyiPad
 From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 05/14/201604:54:31PM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:[ONTHEROAD......WATCHINGNOTHINGBY'VLADBREAKINGBAD'EPISODES....OHWHATFUN!!][MB]Vladwill'neutralize'USMissileBaseThreatNordicsTell
Subject:
OBAboutRUThreatRUDopersDenyDoping....[PB]PutinandtheSyndicate[Whereohwheredid1.3...
Attachments: DonaldTrumpGoesHisOwnWayWithVladimirPutin.docx

From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Saturday,May14,20164:36PM
Subject:Fwd:[ONTHEROAD......WATCHINGNOTHINGBY'VLADBREAKINGBAD'EPISODES....OHWHATFUN!!][MB]Vladwill'neutralize'USMissileBaseThreat
NordicsTellOBAboutRUThreatRUDopersDenyDoping....[PB]PutinandtheSyndicate[Whereohwheredid1.3...

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Date:Sat,May14,2016at7:34PM
Subject:Fwd:[ONTHEROAD......WATCHINGNOTHINGBY'VLADBREAKINGBAD'EPISODES....OHWHATFUN!!][MB]Vladwill'neutralize'
USMissileBaseThreatNordicsTellOBAboutRUThreatRUDopersDenyDoping....[PB]PutinandtheSyndicate[Whereohwheredid1.3Tgo!!]BBC
ToutsRUActinEuro-VisionKitsch,glitzandpoliticsasRussiaslatedtowinEurovision......PLUS"TALESFROMTHEDARKSIDE:LEFT&RIGHT"
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:MartaBurachok<marta.burachok@gmail.com>
Date:Sat,May14,2016at8:29AM
Subject:PutinsaysRussiawill'neutralisethreats'afterUSopensmissilebase-BBCNews
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,Nadia<ronnadialiteplo@hotmail.com>,"R.Shuhan"<roma.shuhan@yahoo.com>,RoxyWacyk
<roxy.wacyk@gmail.com>,GloriaHorbaty<gphorbaty@hotmail.com>,mmshevchuk@aol.com,MariaWalchuk<mlwalchuk@gmail.com>,Mariya
Andriyovych<mariyand5@gmail.com>,MotriaM<motryasua@earthlink.net>,MaryMulyk<marusiadm@yahoo.com>,IJadlicky<ijadlicky@verizon.net>,
NatalieSonetysky<nataliapalidwor@yahoo.com>,AlexandraJuzeniw<lesiajuz@verizon.net>

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36289155

PutinsaysRussiawill'neutralisethreats'afterUSopensmissile
base

ReutersVladimirPutinwarnedthat
Russiawouldbeforcedto"neutralise"perceivedthreats.
 PresidentVladimirPutinhasescalatedRussiancriticismofanewUSmissiledefencestationinRomania,sayinghiscountrywill
"neutraliseemergingthreats".

HeargueditwasaimedatweakeningRussia'snuclearpowerandvowedtoincreaseRussiandefencespending.

USPresidentBarackObamavoicedconcernaboutRussia's"growingaggressivemilitarypresence".

NatosaysthebaseisaimedatpotentialthreatsfromtheMiddleEast.

TheUSonThursdayactivatedtheestimated$800m(550m700m)missileshieldinDeveselu,southernRomania.

NatoSecretaryGeneralJensStoltenbergandotherseniorofficialsfromthemilitaryallianceattendedtheopeningceremony,ataformerRomanian
airbase.

OnFriday,anotherphaseoftheprojectwaslaunchedinPolandwithagroundbreakingceremonyatRedzikowo,neartheBalticSea.Aegismissiles
aretobecomeoperationaltherein2018.

Warofwords
SpeakingtoRussianofficialsinMoscow,MrPutinsaid:"Thisisnotadefencesystem.ThisispartofaUSnuclearstrategicpotentialbroughtontoa
periphery.

APTheDeveselubasefeaturesaradarbuilding

"Inthiscase,EasternEuropeissuchaperiphery.Thosepeopletakingsuchdecisionsmustknowthatuntilnowtheyhavelivedcalm,fairlywell-off
andinsafety.

"Now,astheseelementsofballisticmissiledefencearedeployed,weareforcedtothinkhowtoneutralisetheemergingthreatstotheRussian
Federation."

SpeakinglateratameetingofleadersofSweden,Denmark,Finland,NorwayandIcelandattheWhiteHouse,MrObamasaid:"Weareunitedin
ourconcernaboutRussia'sgrowingaggressivemilitarypresenceandpostureintheBaltic-Nordicregion."

"WewillbemaintainingongoingdialogueandseekcooperationwithRussia,butwealsowanttomakesurethatwearepreparedandstrong,and
wewanttoencourageRussiatokeepitsmilitaryactivitiesinfullcompliancewithinternationalobligations,"hesaid.

TheRomaniansitehostsradarandSM-3missileinterceptors,andwillbeintegratedintoNato'smissileshieldwhentheblocmeetsthissummer.

RelationsbetweentheWestandRussiahavedeterioratedsinceMoscow'sannexationofUkraine'ssouthernCrimeapeninsulain2014afteran
internationallyunrecognisedreferendumonself-determination.

AerialencountersbetweenRussiaandtheUSanditsallieshaveescalatedsignificantly,intheformofviolationsofnationalairspace,narrowly
avoidedmid-aircollisionsandcloseencountersatseaandsimulatedattackruns.

Howdoesthemissileshieldwork?

Thedefencesystemallowson-shoresitesandwarshipstoshootdownenemyballisticmissileswhiletheyarestillinspace.

Theinterceptormissilesarefiredtohitmissilesbeforetheyre-entertheatmosphere,stoppingthemwellbeforethereisanydangerofcausingany
damage.

AnewpieceinNato'smissiledefencejigsaw

----------Forwardedmessage----------

From:MartaBurachok<marta.burachok@gmail.com>
Date:Sat,May14,2016at8:32AM
Subject:FacingRussianthreat,Nordicleaderstalktactics-BBCNews
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-36263331

FacingRussianthreat,Nordicleaderstalktactics
TheleadersoffiveNordiccountriesaremeetingPresidentBarackObamaforasummitattheWhiteHouse.They'lltalkaboutthe
environment,refugees-andthepossibilityofafutureconflictwithRussia.

PresidentObamaishostingtheWhiteHouse'sfirst-everUS-NordicLeadersSummitonanunluckyday,Fridaythe13th.ButNordicofficialssaid
thatthey'renotsuperstitious.

TheagendaincludesdiscussionsabouttherefugeecrisisandNordiccontributionstothefightagainsttheIslamicStategroup.Swedishofficialsare
facedwithaninfluxofa"very,veryhigh"numberofrefugees,saidAmbassadorBjrnLyrvall.

MeanwhileDenmark,asLarsGertLose,theirambassadortotheUS,toldme,issending60specialforcestoIraqandSyria.

GettyImagesPresidentPutin,showninFinlandin2013,hasunnervedsomepeopleinNordiccountries

OnFridayevening,theNordicofficialswillattendastatedinnerattheWhiteHouse.

Statedinnersarerelativelyrare.SincemovingintotheWhiteHouse,theObamashavehostedlessthanadozen-fortheleadersofIndia,China,the
UKandahandfulofothercountries.

TheNordicguestsseemalittlesurprisedbytheattention.

Buttheyalsoknow-inavisceralway-whythey'vebecomeimportanttoAmericans.RussiansarenowactingoutinnorthernEuropeinawaythat
hasn'tbeenseensincetheColdWar.

Forthisreason,saidtheCenterforStrategicandInternationalStudies'HeatherConley,aformerUSstatedepartmentofficial,therelationship
betweentheUSandNordiccountries"hasbeentakentoanewlevel".

ThemessagefromPresidentVladimirPutinisdark.

RussianaircraftflewovertheBalticSealastmonth,zoomingtowardsaUSship.RussiansubmarinesmaybelurkingoffinthewatersnearSweden
andFinland.

LastyearaRussianambassadorsaidthatifDanishleaderssteppedoutofline-byjoiningNato'smissiledefencesystem,forexample,theRussians
wouldfirenuclearmissilesattheirships.

GeorgetownUniversity'sAngelaStentsaidUSofficialstakeRussians'rhetoricseriously

Nordicleadersworrymostabouttheirneighbours,Estonia,LatviaandLithuania.ThesethreecountriesarelocatedacrosstheBalticSeafrom
Sweden-andareclosetoRussia.

Theycouldbeindanger.Itwasn'tthatlongagothatPutinreclaimedCrimea,sayingthatitwaspartofRussia.SomeanalystsintheBalticsand
EasternEuropefearhecouldtrythesamethingwithEstonia,LatviaorLithuania.

Putinhaschangedthedynamicsoftheregion-andispartlywhyWhiteHouseofficialshaveorganisedtheNordicsummit.

"Youcan'tassumeit'sjustrhetoric,"saidGeorgetownUniversity'sAngelaStent,whowritesaboutUS-Russiarelations.ShesaidWhiteHouse
officialsaretakingtheRussianstatementsseriously.

Administrationofficialssaidthatthesummitwasconvenedasawayto"deepenUS-Nordiccooperation".Theyalsosaiditshowstheircommitment
tothesecurityoftheNordicregion.

AmbassadorLarsGertLoseofDenmarkdescribedan"unpredictable"Russia

AtthesummitUSofficialswilltalktotheirNordiccounterpartsaboutdealingwithan"unpredictable"Russia,asLosesaid,diplomatically.

UniversityofColorado'sBenjaminTeitelbaum,theauthorofabookabouttheNordicnations,saidofficialshavebeensurprisedatPutin's
aggression.

Teitelbaumsaid:"Thisisatraumaticthing."

Sotraumatic,infact,thatsomeSwedesarenowtalkingaboutjoiningNato.SwedenisapartnerofNato,butit'snotofficiallyamember.

Overtheyears,Swedeshavebecomemoreopentotheideaofjoiningthealliance.In1994only15%ofSwedeswantedtobecomeNato
members,accordingtoSOMInstitute,anindependentorganisationattheUniversityofGothenburg.

Lastyear,accordingtoresearcherKarlYden,nearly40%ofSwedessupportedtheprospectofmembership.

They'reinterested-butatthispointnothingwillchange.

OfficialsintheSwedishgovernment,acoalitionofleft-leaningparties,havenoplanstoapplyforNatomembership,saidAmbassadorBjrnLyrvall.

HespokewithmeattheSwedishembassy,locatedinabuildingnearthePotomacRiver.Hiscolleague,MonicaEnqvist,offeredmecoffeeanda
plateofhavreflarn(oatcrisps).

AtelevisionsetwasturnedtoMSNBC,muted.TheTVisanchoredonawallnearanIvanAguelipaintingofafieldandblue-greysky.
 "It'scontemplative,"saidLyrvall,whohassandy-colouredhairthatfallsoverhisforehead.AshetalkedaboutRussia,helookedoutsideattherain.

"Swedishweather,"saidEnqvist,later.

AmbassadorBjrnLyrvallsaidthatsomeSwedesareconsideringNatomembership

AsenioradministrationofficialsaidheplannedtoreassurehisNordiccounterpartsatthesummitabouttheirsecurityandsaidhe'ddeliveranupbeat
message:"Yes,theUSstandsbyitscommitmenttoyoursecurity."

TheofficialremindedmeofthereassuringremarksthatthepresidenthadmadeyearsagointheBalticregion.

"We'llbehereforEstonia.WewillbehereforLatvia.WewillbehereforLithuania,"ObamasaidinTallinn,Estonia,inSeptember2014."Youlost
yourindependenceoncebefore.WithNato,youwillneverloseitagain."

It'sanoblesentiment-butperhapsnotrealistic.AnewstudybyresearchersatRandCorporation,aUSthink-tank,showedthatifRussiaattacked
theBaltics,Natowouldn'tbeabletodefendthem.

Administrationofficialssaidthey'vebeenbeefingupsecurityintheregionandareworkingwithallies-andthatthesummitispartoftheireffort.

LateonFridaymorning,ObamaandtheNordicleaderswillspeakbrieflywithreporters.They'llissueadeclarationwith"substantiallanguage",said
Lyrvall,aboutRussia.

Intheeveningthey'llhavedinneronthesouthlawn-"agrandevent",hesaid.Obamawillmakeatoast,andsowillleadersofDenmarkand
Iceland.

Lyrvallmaybeanintrospective-andbrooding-Swede.Buthesaidthathepaysnoattentiontounluckysigns,adding:"Ithinkwehaveastrong
enoughrelationshiptowithstandthe13thofMay."

Follow@Tara_MckelveyonTwitter.

----------Forwardedmessage----------

From:MartaBurachok<marta.burachok@gmail.com>
Date:Sat,May14,2016at8:51AM
Subject:Russiadopingcover-upclaims'nonsenseandslanderous'-BBCSport[ED:Comeswithashortobservation][Sidenote:Thefolkswho
competedagainstLegkovknowbetter]
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

http://www.bbc.com/sport/winter-sports/36284161

Russiadopingcover-upclaims'nonsenseandslanderous'

Russiawon13goldmedalsattheSochiWinterOlympicsin2014-includingthosewonbyZubkov(left)andLegkov

TwoRussianathletesnamedindopingallegationsbythenation'sformeranti-dopingchiefhaverejectedtheclaimsas"nonsenseand
slanderous".

InaNewYorkTimesreport,DrGrigoryRodchenkovallegesdozensofathletes,includingatleast15medallistsatthe2014WinterOlympics,
werepartofanextensivestate-rundopingprogramme.

SkierAlexanderLegkovandbobsledderAlexanderZubkovinsisttheyareclean.

TheInternationalOlympicCommitteesaidtheclaimsmustbeinvestigated.
 ButLegkov,whowongoldandsilvermedalsinSochi,saidlegalaction"needed"tobetakenovertheallegations.

"Itiscompleterubbishandweneedtostopit,"hesaid.

"Iperformedhonestly.MyOlympicvictorywasnotaccidental."

Zubkov,whowontwogoldmedalsinSochi,added:"ItisallnonsenseandslanderdirectedatRussiansportsmenwhotookpartintheOlympics.It
isunacceptable."

Rodchenkovdescribedamassive,tightlyorganiseddopingoperationinvolvingRussia'ssecurityserviceandthesportsministry.

SportsMinisterVitalyMutkohascondemnedtheallegationsas"acontinuationoftheinformationattackonRussiansport".

KremlinspokesmanDmitryPeskovaddedtheywere"unsubstantiated"andthe"slanderofadefector".

FormerRussiananti-dopingagencyworkerVitalyStepanovhadalsoclaimedontheCBSnetwork's60Minutesprogrammethatundercover
Russianintelligenceagentsposedasanti-dopingstafftocoverupcheatingatSochi.

TheBBCandtheWorldAnti-DopingAgency(Wada)havebeenunabletoindependentlyverifytheallegationsmadeinthe
programme.[ED:DidanyoneevernoticethatalloftheRU'BreakingBad'storiesarealwaysqualifiedas'alleged'?Didanyoneever
thesamecourtesyisnotextendedtoUA???]

RussianathleteshavealreadybeenbannedfrominternationalcompetitionbytheInternationalAssociationofAthleticsFederations(IAAF),
thesport'sworldgoverningbody,afteraWadacommissionreportalleged"state-sponsored"dopinginthecountry.

RodchenkovlefthispostafterthereportwaspublishedinNovember2015.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:PeterBorisow<ap.borisow@comcast.net>
Date:Sat,May14,2016at12:11PM
Subject:Putin'sSyndicateAndTheLaw[ED:Heckofaread!!]
To:"Waz(Columbia)"<waz2102@columbia.edu>

PanamaPapersarecreatingproblemsfortheWorld'sMostSuccessfulCriminal.Wheredidthe$1.3[Trillion]endup?Inhowmanymajorcorporations
(includingUS/EU)isthatstashinvested?IsPutin'sFinancialEmpiretoobigtobetoppled,toobigtofail?

http://www.rferl.org/content/putins-syndicate-and-the-law/27732468.html

ThePowerVertical

Putin'sSyndicateAndTheLaw
Print

Comment(2)

Share:
 WiththebehaviorofVladimirPutin'sRussiaoftenresemblingthatofaninternationalcrimesyndicate,theKremlin'sstridentresponsetoWesterncountriesenforcingtheirlawsishardlysurprising.(filephoto)

ByBrianWhitmore

May13,2016

I fyou'venationalizedandweaponizedyourmafia,it'sonlynaturaltoviewaninvestigationintoorganizedcrimeasaggression.

Ityouusecorruptionasatoolofstatecraft,you'llprobablyseeeffortstofostergreatertransparencyashostile.

Ifassassinations,embezzlement,moneylaundering,andarmstraffickingarepartofyourforeignpolicytoolkit,itisnotsurprising
thatyouthinkprosecutingsuchthingsisanactofwar.

AleksandrBastrykincertainlythinksitis.

InawidelydiscussedarticleinKommersantVlastlastmonth,theRussianInvestigativeCommitteechiefsaid"internationallaw
andthejusticebasedonit,haveincreasinglybecometoolsofwar"againstMoscow.

AndforonceIactuallyagreewithBastrykin--withjustasmalltweak.Iwouldreplacetheword"war"with"counterinsurgency."

Because,withtheKremlinactivelyusingcorruption,organizedcrime,moneylaundering,andcyberattackstoundermineand
weakenWesterninstitutions,thebestweaponagainstthisinsidiousandstealthyinsurgencyisthedirectandopenapplicationof
theruleoflaw.

"AneffectiveWesternresponsetoRussia'smulti-dimensionalchallengerequiresawholeofgovernmentapproach,"veteran
Kremlin-watcherJamesSherrofChathamHousewroterecently.

"Unlessnon-defensearmsofgovernment(judicial,financial,regulatory)understandthedefenseandsecurityimplicationsoftheir
responsibilities,theywillnotbefitforpurpose."

Inotherwords,corruptionandtransnationalcrimearenationalsecurityissuesofthehighestmagnitude,andWestern
governmentsarestartingtotreatthemassuch.

"Inan'asymmetric'strugglewiththeUnitedStates,PutinandRussiahavetobeinnovative,catchtheWestoffguard,andfight
 dirty,"FionaHill,aseniorfellowattheBrookingsInstitutionandco-authorofthebookMr.Putin:OperativeintheKremlin,wrote
recently.

PartoffightingdirtymeanstheKremlin'sisusingcorruptbusinessdealsandorganizedcrimetocompromiseofficialsand
businesselites,weakenresolve,andestablishTrojanHorsesinWesterncountries.

AndWesterngovernmentsarebecomingincreasingvigilantaboutcounteringthegeopoliticalthreatstemmingfromPutin's
weaponizationofglobalization.

TheEuropeanUnionhasbecomemoreassertiveinenforcingitsThirdEnergyPackageandpreventingGazpromfromflouting
antimonopolylaws.

HotRussianmoneyinEurope'sbanksandpropertymarketsisdrawingmorescrutiny.

OutrageovertherevelationsinthePanamaPapersareforcinggovernmentstocrackdownonoffshorehavens.

AndWesternlawenforcementhasmovedtopullthemaskoffMoscow'smorebrazenstate-sponsoredcriminalactivity.

TheconclusionofaBritishinvestigationbackinFebruarythatKremlinagentsassassinatedRussiandefectorAleksandr
LitvinenkowitharareradioactiveisotopeintheheartofLondonin2006--andthatVladimirPutinprobablygavethegreenlight--
isoneexample.

SpanishJudgeJosedelaMataissuinginternationalarrestwarrantsforadozenRussians--includingcurrentandformerofficials
--forlinkstoorganizedcrimeearlierthismonthisanother.

Alsothismonth,PortuguesepolicebrokeupaRussianorganizedcrimenetworkthathadreportedlyboughtcontrolofsoccer
clubsandusedthemtolaunderblackcash.

WiththebehaviorofVladimirPutin'sRussiaoftenresemblingthatofaninternationalcrimesyndicate,itonlystandstoreason
thattheKremlinwouldgetabsolutelyhystericalwheneverWesterncountriesexercisetheirsovereignrighttoenforcetheirown
lawsagainstRussianperpetrators.

"Thiseliteregardedglobalizationasabuffet--thattheycanenjoyalltheopportunitiesofbeingEuropeanswhileatthesametime
maintainingtheircapacitytostealwithimpunitybackwithinRussia,"NewYorkUniversity'sMarkGaleotti,anexpertonRussian
organizedcrime,toldTheMoscowTimes.

"Nowtheyarefindingthatthisisbecomingharderandharder."

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:PeterBorisow<ap.borisow@comcast.net>
Date:Sat,May14,2016at9:05AM
Subject:Eurovision2016:Russia'sSergeyLazarevfavouritetowin-BBCNews[ED:PB'sUseoftheWord"Pimp"toDescribeBBC'sWorkOn
BehalfofOl'Sergein'Spoton'.....ReadandWeep][AGoodReminderoftheKindofWondrousWorkBBCDidWithItsGirkin-Strelkov
InterviewsinDonbasduringtheEarlyStagesoftheRU-UAWar]
To:"Waz(Columbia)"<waz2102@columbia.edu>

BBCdoeswhatitcantopimpforPutin'sLondongradMultimillionDollar'SlickasSpit'Eurovisioncandidate.

http://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-36284814

Eurovision2016:Russia'sSergeyLazarevfavouritetowin
14May2016

FromthesectionEntertainment&Arts
ImagecopyrightGETTYIMAGESImagecaptionSergeyLazarev,whohailsfromSochi,isawell-knownsingerinRussia

Russiaisthefavouritetowinthisyear'sEurovisionSongContest,whichistakingplaceinStockholm.

Russia'sSergeyLazarev,ahugepopstarinthecountry,iswidelytippedtowinwithhistechnoballad,YouAreTheOnlyOne.

Australia,France,SwedenandUkrainearealsohotlytippedforsuccessinthecompetition.
TherunningorderforthecontestwasunveiledonFriday,withtheUK'sJoeandJakeperformingsecondlast.
Theduo,bothofwhomareformercontestantsofTheVoiceUK,werechosentorepresentBritaininapublicvoteinFebruary.
Followourlivecoverageofthecontest.

ImagecopyrightGETTYIMAGESImagecaptionJoeandJakewillrepresenttheUKinSaturdaynight'scontest

JoeandJakequalifiedforthefinalautomaticallyastheUKisoneofthebiggestfinancialcontributorstoEurovision,sothepairdidnothaveto
performatthesemi-final.

Eurovision2016:Reporter'sdiary
WhatdofansloveaboutEurovision?

WhyisRussiasodesperatetowinEurovision?

WhowastheUK'sfirstEurovisionsinger?

Ukrainiansinger's'familystory'

MichaelBall:'MyadviceforJoeandJake'

OtherfinalistsincludeUkraine-whoseentrantJamalaisthefirsteverCrimeanTatartoperformatthecontest.

Herpoliticallychargedsong1944isnottypicalEurovisionfare-itslyricsincludereferencestoStalin,Crimea,andclaimsofethniccleansing.

ThesonghasangeredRussia,whichannexedCrimeafromUkrainein2014,astensionbetweenthetwocountriesgrew.
IrelandwasknockedoutofthecontestafterformerWestlifesingerNickyByrnefailedtoqualifyinThursday'ssemi-final.

IthasbeenabadyearforScandinavianentries.

DenmarkandNorwaywereknockedoutinthesemi-finals,whichweredecidedbasedonacombinationofpublicandjuryvoting.Icelandand
Finlandalsofailedtomakeitthrough.

However,asreigningwinners,Swedenhasautomaticallyadvancedtothegrandfinal.

TheCzechRepublichasalsomadeittothefinal-thefirsttimeithasqualifiedsincethesemi-finalsystemwasintroducedin2004.

ImagecopyrightAFP/GETTYImagecaptionFormerWestlifestarNickyByrnefailedtoqualifyinThursday'ssemi-final

AustralianXFactorwinnerDamiIm,whowasmentoredbypopstarDanniiMinogue,wasvotedthroughtothefinalwithhersongSoundOf
Silence.

DespitebeingontheothersideoftheworldfromEurope,AustraliawasinvitedtojoinEurovisionforits60thanniversaryin2015,when
contestantGuySebastianfinishedinfifthplace.

Russiafavourites
AvictoryforsingerSergeyLazarevwouldmeanRussiawouldhostthecontestnextyearforthesecondtime-thecountryfirstwonin2008.

Russiaisknownforitscontroversiallawsregardinghomosexuality,makingitanunusualhostforaneventwithastrongLGBTfollowing.
LazarevtoldtheBBCtheLGBTcommunitywillbewelcomedtohiscountryifhewinsthecontest.

"GaylifeexistsinRussia,hesaid."Thereismoretalkandrumoursaboutproblemsthanexist.Ijustwantyoutocomeandseeeverything
yourself."

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:PeterBorisow<ap.borisow@comcast.net>
Date:Sat,May14,2016at10:43AM
Subject:Kitsch,glitzandpoliticsasRussiaslatedtowinEurovision|GlobalPost
To:"Waz(Columbia)"<waz2102@columbia.edu>

Oneofthekeysto"hybridwarfare"isflexibility.Here,Putin'sImageDeceptifiersgethimtoswallowhishomophobiaastheyhustletopimpRussia'sMultimillion
DollarSlickAsSpitCandidateintheEuroVisioncompetition.

TocounterUS/EUdisgustwithPutin'sNeo-NaziresurgenceinRussia,they'repandering(atleasttemporarily)totheLGBTcommunity.IntheUS,the
competitionisbeingcarriedbytheLogoChannel,whichisaimedatLGBTclients.Logo'slargestmarketisWestHollywood,whichalsojusthappenstobe
hometothelargestRussiancommunityintheUS(aswellasofLenin'sBigGiantHeadstatue).

What'snextforRussia?AGayPrideParadeinRedSquare?Cantheworld'slargestsynagogueinMoscowbefarbehind?Don'tkidyourself.Onestepback
todayfortwostepsforwardtomorrow.It'sallpartofthegame.

http://www.globalpost.com/article/6769303/2016/05/13/kitsch-glitz-and-politics-russia-slated-win-eurovision

NEXTSECTION......."IFTHERIGHTONEWON'TGETYA,THENTHELEFTONEWILL.....'[FromanOldTennesseeErnie
Fordsong]

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:PeterBorisow<apb.uke@earthlink.net>
Date:Sat,May14,2016at10:50AM
Subject:Fwd:AntiUkrainian"Workshop"inNewYork[OntheUSPOPULIST(OCC-WS)LEFT.....fearofafascist(read:Neo-Nazi)regimeina
countrythathasaprimeministerofJewishfaith.....toorichforwords]
To:"Waz(Columbia)"<waz2102@columbia.edu>

Walter,haveyouheardaboutthis?

Beginforwardedmessage:

From:"BohdanFutala"<bfutala@verizon.net>

Date:May13,20169:10:36PMPDT

To:<bbesaha@yahoo.com>,"PeterBorisov"<apb.uke@earthlink.com>,"AndyFedynsky"<fedynsky@sbcglobal.net>,"LeoIwaskiw"
<liwaskiw@provassn.com>,<hanya@brama.com>,"MyronMelnyk"<mmelnyk@yahoo.com>,<ajmotyl@andromeda.rutgers.edu>,"Oryssia
Prokopovitch"<oryssia@hotmail.com>,"MyroslavaRozdolska"<myroslavar@hotmail.com>,<Unis.sawkiw@comcast.net>

Subject:AntiUkrainian"Workshop"inNewYork

NoticedthiseventlistedinTheUkrainianWeeklyatCCNYonSaturday5/21.ThepanelconsistsexclusivelyofproPutindiscipleswhoundoubtedlywillpresenta
convolutedanti-Ukrainiannarrative.ItwouldseemtobeincumbentuponMaidansupportersintheNYCareatoconfrontthem.Pleaseforwardthisinformation.

http://www.leftforum.org/content/situation-ukraine

Session1Room1.113Sat10:00am-11:50am

PanelProposal/WorkshopInformation
Panel/WorkshopYear:

2016

Abstract:

FightingcontinuesinUkrainewithrebelsinchargeoftheEasternareasofthecountryanddeclaringtheirindependencefromKiev.Strugglealsocontinuesin
otherpartsofthecountryagainstthedraftandtherightwinggovernment.OnMay2,wereachedthe2yearanniversaryofthefascistattackon
demonstratorattheOdessaHouseofTradeUnions,where46peoplewerekilled.AleaderoftheprogressivemovementfromOdessawilljointhispanel

SponsoringJournal:

UnitedNationalAntiwarCoalition(UNAC)

Panel/WorkshopTopics:

Europe

MorePanel/WorkshopInformation

DiversityofPersepctives:

ThispanelwillfeaturealeaderoftheprogressivemovementfromOdessawhoopposetherightwinggovernementinKiev.Shewillbejoinedbyother
speakerstodiscussthesituationwiththerebelheldareasofthecountryandthecontinuingstruggleinUkraine.

Participants

Chair/Facilitator:

Name:PhilWilayto ViewDetails

Speakers/Co-Facilitators:

Name:IrinaKovel ViewDetails

Name:GregButterfield ViewDetails

Name:BruceGagnon ViewDetails

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:BFD
Date:2016-05-149:35GMT-04:00
Subject:[ONTHEPOPULISTRIGHTINTHEUS.........TheDon-VladBromanceContinues]
To:

DonaldTrumpGoesHisOwnWayWithVladimirPutin
WarmwordsandpushtoimprovetieswithMoscowarentsharedbyBarackObama,Republicanpresidentialrivals
RussianPresidentVladimirPutinattendsameetingwithmembersoftheLegislativeCouncilinSt.Petersburglastmonth.PHOTO:ALEXEIDRUZHININ/ASSOCIATEDPRESS

ByDamianPalettaTheWallStreetJournal

UpdatedMay13,20164:57p.m.ET

DonaldTrumpmadeanunusualpublicoverturetoRussianPresidentVladimirPutininJune2013,tryingtoginuppublicityforaneventhe
wasco-hostingthatyear.

DoyouthinkPutinwillbegoingtoTheMissUniversePageantinNovemberinMoscowifso,willhebecomemynewbestfriend?thereal
estatemagnatetweeted.

Thatappealcamelessthan24hoursafterPresidentBarackObamaandMr.Putinheldatense,unproductivemeetingatasummitofworld
leadersinNorthernIreland,astheysparredoverhowtode-escalatetheconflictinSyria.Ourpositionsdonotfullycoincide,Mr.Putinsaid
terselyafterward.

Mr.Trump,thepresumptiveGOPpresidentialnominee,hasproposedredrawingawiderangeofU.S.policies,includingtaxandimmigration
rules,tradeagreementsandengagementintheMiddleEast.Butinnoareahashebeenmorepersistentandperhapsmoreconsistent
thanhiscalltoimproverelationswithMr.Putin,anauthoritarianfigureoftenatoddswiththeU.S.

Mr.TrumpsviewsonMr.PutinseparatehimnotjustfromMr.ObamabutfromhisformerGOPrivals,andfromconservativesaswellas
liberals.Sen.MarcoRubio(R.,Fla.)calledMr.Putinagangsterandathug,andDemocraticfront-funnerHillaryClintonhastermedhima
bully,whileMr.Trumpcallshimverybrightandastrongleader.

ItsunclearwhetherMessrs.TrumpandPutinhavespokensincethecampaignbegan.Theyhaveexchangedpleasantriesinpublic
statements,butremaincoyaboutwhethertheyhavehadprivatediscussions.(SeeManafortarticle.TheQuietAmericanB/F]

Ibelieveaneasingoftensions,andimprovedrelationswithRussiafromapositionofstrengthonlyispossible,absolutelypossible,Mr.
Trumpsaidinaforeign-policyspeechatWashingtonsMayflowerHotelinApril.SomesaytheRussianswontbereasonable.Iintendtofind
out.

Afewminutesbeforehemadethoseremarks,Mr.TrumpmetataVIPreceptionwithRussiasambassadortotheU.S.,SergeyIvanovich
Kislyak.Mr.TrumpwarmlygreetedMr.Kislyakandthreeotherforeignambassadorswhocametothereception.

TheoriginofMr.TrumpsaffectionforRussiaisunclear.HetraveledtoMoscowinthe1990sinsearchofreal-estatedeals,buthiscompany
isntbelievedtohavepropertiesthere.HesaidlastweekthathisexperiencewithRussianofficialsincludedhostingthe2013MissUniverse
event.HedrewattentionforfloatingtheideaofaTrumpTowerinMoscow,butthestatusofthatprojectisalsounclear.

Mr.TrumpsprimarydiplomaticgoalregardingRussiaappearstobetoletMr.PutindealwithproblemsinSyriaandelsewhereinthe
Mideast,allowingtheU.S.todisengage.

OneproposalthathasgarneredpositiveRussianattentionisMr.TrumpssuggestionthattheNorthAtlanticTreatyOrganizationfocuson
combatingterrorisminsteadofdeterringRussianaggression.ThatalarmsofficialsinUkraineandtheBaltics,formerSovietstatesthatfear
theycouldbecomeMr.PutinsnexttargetsfollowingRussiasannexationofUkrainianregionofCrimeainearly2014.

TheKremlinhassignaleditspleasedwithMr.Trumpssuccessandmessage.Mr.Trumpsayshewantstomovetoanotherlevelofrelations,
tocloseranddeeperrelationswithRussiahowcanwenotwelcomethat?Mr.PutinsaidinDecember.Ofcourse,wewelcomeit.

ButMr.TrumpsrisehasunsettledanumberofveteranU.S.diplomats.

Theresamythologyaboutforeignpolicythatitsjustlikedeal-makinginthebusinessworld,andifyoudontlikethedeal,youcanjustwalk
away,saidMichaelMcFaul,acriticofMr.TrumpandformerU.S.ambassadortoRussiaunderMr.Obama.Inforeignpolicy,youcantwalk
away.Itcancomebacktobiteyou.Itcancreatevacuums.

U.S.relationswithMoscowhavedeterioratedinrecentyears,especiallysincetheannexationofCrimea.WashingtonhaschafedatRussias
backingforSyrianPresidentBasharal-Assad,andWesterndiplomatsbelieveMr.PutinislookingforwaystoaggressivelyassertRussias
regionalandglobalinfluence,withlittlerespectforhumanrights.

Atthesametime,WesternleadershavesoughtwaystoworkwithMoscowwheretheycan,inareasfromthenucleardealwithIrantothecivil
warinSyria.

Mr.TrumpisnotthefirstfiguretospeakofimprovingrelationswithRussiaandMr.Putin.Thelasttwopresidentshavevoicedsimilaraims,
onlytoseetheireffortsfounderinthefaceofgeopoliticalevents.

In2001,then-PresidentGeorgeW.BushsaidafterameetingwithMr.PutinthatIwasabletogetasenseofhissoul,aremarkthatwas
widelyderided,especiallyafterMr.PutintookaggressiveactionslikemovingintoneighboringGeorgiain2008.

Mr.ObamasteamalsospokeofresettingrelationswithRussia,buthe,too,hasseenrelationsdeteriorate,tothepointthatNATOhas
suspendedmuchofitsnascentcooperationwithRussia.

Althoughmanyconservativeforeign-policyexpertshavebalkedatMr.TrumpsoverturestoRussia,someagreethatitmaybetimetorethink
U.S.-Russiarelations.

WhatwehavenowinthedynamicsbetweenPutinandObamaisveryunhelpful,saidDimitriSimes,presidentoftheCenterfortheNational
Interest,whichhostedMr.Trumpsforeign-policyspeech.ObamaclearlydoesnottrustPutin,doesnotlikePutin,anddoesnthideit.Ithink
thatPutindoesntlikeObama,isnotafraidofObama,anddoesntparticularlyrespectObama.

Perhapsillustratingthat,Mr.PutinrejectedaninvitationfromMr.ObamatoattendasummitonnuclearweaponsinApril,sayingtheU.S.
hadntproperlyacknowledgedRussiasstatusasaworldpower.

Mr.TrumpseizedonthetensionafterRussianwarplanesandamilitaryhelicopterlastmonthbuzzedaU.S.NavyDestroyerintheBalticSea.

Itsjustnorespectforourpresidentorourcountry,andheistweakingus,Mr.TrumpsaidofMr.PutinonFoxNews.Ifitwereme,Iwilltell
you,IwouldcallhimandIwouldsay,Dontdoit.Juststopit.Dontdoit.

Headded,Andtheyregoingtorespectus,andIvehadasortofsemi-nicerelationshipwithPutinsaidverynicethingsaboutme.

 From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 05/14/201604:54:31PM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:[ONTHEROAD......WATCHINGNOTHINGBY'VLADBREAKINGBAD'EPISODES....OHWHATFUN!!][MB]Vladwill'neutralize'USMissileBaseThreatNordicsTell
Subject:
OBAboutRUThreatRUDopersDenyDoping....[PB]PutinandtheSyndicate[Whereohwheredid1.3...
Attachments: DonaldTrumpGoesHisOwnWayWithVladimirPutin.docx

From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Saturday,May14,20164:36PM
Subject:Fwd:[ONTHEROAD......WATCHINGNOTHINGBY'VLADBREAKINGBAD'EPISODES....OHWHATFUN!!][MB]Vladwill'neutralize'USMissileBaseThreat
NordicsTellOBAboutRUThreatRUDopersDenyDoping....[PB]PutinandtheSyndicate[Whereohwheredid1.3...

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Date:Sat,May14,2016at7:34PM
Subject:Fwd:[ONTHEROAD......WATCHINGNOTHINGBY'VLADBREAKINGBAD'EPISODES....OHWHATFUN!!][MB]Vladwill'neutralize'
USMissileBaseThreatNordicsTellOBAboutRUThreatRUDopersDenyDoping....[PB]PutinandtheSyndicate[Whereohwheredid1.3Tgo!!]BBC
ToutsRUActinEuro-VisionKitsch,glitzandpoliticsasRussiaslatedtowinEurovision......PLUS"TALESFROMTHEDARKSIDE:LEFT&RIGHT"
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:MartaBurachok<marta.burachok@gmail.com>
Date:Sat,May14,2016at8:29AM
Subject:PutinsaysRussiawill'neutralisethreats'afterUSopensmissilebase-BBCNews
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,Nadia<ronnadialiteplo@hotmail.com>,"R.Shuhan"<roma.shuhan@yahoo.com>,RoxyWacyk
<roxy.wacyk@gmail.com>,GloriaHorbaty<gphorbaty@hotmail.com>,mmshevchuk@aol.com,MariaWalchuk<mlwalchuk@gmail.com>,Mariya
Andriyovych<mariyand5@gmail.com>,MotriaM<motryasua@earthlink.net>,MaryMulyk<marusiadm@yahoo.com>,IJadlicky<ijadlicky@verizon.net>,
NatalieSonetysky<nataliapalidwor@yahoo.com>,AlexandraJuzeniw<lesiajuz@verizon.net>

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36289155

PutinsaysRussiawill'neutralisethreats'afterUSopensmissile
base

ReutersVladimirPutinwarnedthat
Russiawouldbeforcedto"neutralise"perceivedthreats.
 PresidentVladimirPutinhasescalatedRussiancriticismofanewUSmissiledefencestationinRomania,sayinghiscountrywill
"neutraliseemergingthreats".

HeargueditwasaimedatweakeningRussia'snuclearpowerandvowedtoincreaseRussiandefencespending.

USPresidentBarackObamavoicedconcernaboutRussia's"growingaggressivemilitarypresence".

NatosaysthebaseisaimedatpotentialthreatsfromtheMiddleEast.

TheUSonThursdayactivatedtheestimated$800m(550m700m)missileshieldinDeveselu,southernRomania.

NatoSecretaryGeneralJensStoltenbergandotherseniorofficialsfromthemilitaryallianceattendedtheopeningceremony,ataformerRomanian
airbase.

OnFriday,anotherphaseoftheprojectwaslaunchedinPolandwithagroundbreakingceremonyatRedzikowo,neartheBalticSea.Aegismissiles
aretobecomeoperationaltherein2018.

Warofwords
SpeakingtoRussianofficialsinMoscow,MrPutinsaid:"Thisisnotadefencesystem.ThisispartofaUSnuclearstrategicpotentialbroughtontoa
periphery.

APTheDeveselubasefeaturesaradarbuilding

"Inthiscase,EasternEuropeissuchaperiphery.Thosepeopletakingsuchdecisionsmustknowthatuntilnowtheyhavelivedcalm,fairlywell-off
andinsafety.

"Now,astheseelementsofballisticmissiledefencearedeployed,weareforcedtothinkhowtoneutralisetheemergingthreatstotheRussian
Federation."

SpeakinglateratameetingofleadersofSweden,Denmark,Finland,NorwayandIcelandattheWhiteHouse,MrObamasaid:"Weareunitedin
ourconcernaboutRussia'sgrowingaggressivemilitarypresenceandpostureintheBaltic-Nordicregion."

"WewillbemaintainingongoingdialogueandseekcooperationwithRussia,butwealsowanttomakesurethatwearepreparedandstrong,and
wewanttoencourageRussiatokeepitsmilitaryactivitiesinfullcompliancewithinternationalobligations,"hesaid.

TheRomaniansitehostsradarandSM-3missileinterceptors,andwillbeintegratedintoNato'smissileshieldwhentheblocmeetsthissummer.

RelationsbetweentheWestandRussiahavedeterioratedsinceMoscow'sannexationofUkraine'ssouthernCrimeapeninsulain2014afteran
internationallyunrecognisedreferendumonself-determination.

AerialencountersbetweenRussiaandtheUSanditsallieshaveescalatedsignificantly,intheformofviolationsofnationalairspace,narrowly
avoidedmid-aircollisionsandcloseencountersatseaandsimulatedattackruns.

Howdoesthemissileshieldwork?

Thedefencesystemallowson-shoresitesandwarshipstoshootdownenemyballisticmissileswhiletheyarestillinspace.

Theinterceptormissilesarefiredtohitmissilesbeforetheyre-entertheatmosphere,stoppingthemwellbeforethereisanydangerofcausingany
damage.

AnewpieceinNato'smissiledefencejigsaw

----------Forwardedmessage----------

From:MartaBurachok<marta.burachok@gmail.com>
Date:Sat,May14,2016at8:32AM
Subject:FacingRussianthreat,Nordicleaderstalktactics-BBCNews
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-36263331

FacingRussianthreat,Nordicleaderstalktactics
TheleadersoffiveNordiccountriesaremeetingPresidentBarackObamaforasummitattheWhiteHouse.They'lltalkaboutthe
environment,refugees-andthepossibilityofafutureconflictwithRussia.

PresidentObamaishostingtheWhiteHouse'sfirst-everUS-NordicLeadersSummitonanunluckyday,Fridaythe13th.ButNordicofficialssaid
thatthey'renotsuperstitious.

TheagendaincludesdiscussionsabouttherefugeecrisisandNordiccontributionstothefightagainsttheIslamicStategroup.Swedishofficialsare
facedwithaninfluxofa"very,veryhigh"numberofrefugees,saidAmbassadorBjrnLyrvall.

MeanwhileDenmark,asLarsGertLose,theirambassadortotheUS,toldme,issending60specialforcestoIraqandSyria.

GettyImagesPresidentPutin,showninFinlandin2013,hasunnervedsomepeopleinNordiccountries

OnFridayevening,theNordicofficialswillattendastatedinnerattheWhiteHouse.

Statedinnersarerelativelyrare.SincemovingintotheWhiteHouse,theObamashavehostedlessthanadozen-fortheleadersofIndia,China,the
UKandahandfulofothercountries.

TheNordicguestsseemalittlesurprisedbytheattention.

Buttheyalsoknow-inavisceralway-whythey'vebecomeimportanttoAmericans.RussiansarenowactingoutinnorthernEuropeinawaythat
hasn'tbeenseensincetheColdWar.

Forthisreason,saidtheCenterforStrategicandInternationalStudies'HeatherConley,aformerUSstatedepartmentofficial,therelationship
betweentheUSandNordiccountries"hasbeentakentoanewlevel".

ThemessagefromPresidentVladimirPutinisdark.

RussianaircraftflewovertheBalticSealastmonth,zoomingtowardsaUSship.RussiansubmarinesmaybelurkingoffinthewatersnearSweden
andFinland.

LastyearaRussianambassadorsaidthatifDanishleaderssteppedoutofline-byjoiningNato'smissiledefencesystem,forexample,theRussians
wouldfirenuclearmissilesattheirships.

GeorgetownUniversity'sAngelaStentsaidUSofficialstakeRussians'rhetoricseriously

Nordicleadersworrymostabouttheirneighbours,Estonia,LatviaandLithuania.ThesethreecountriesarelocatedacrosstheBalticSeafrom
Sweden-andareclosetoRussia.

Theycouldbeindanger.Itwasn'tthatlongagothatPutinreclaimedCrimea,sayingthatitwaspartofRussia.SomeanalystsintheBalticsand
EasternEuropefearhecouldtrythesamethingwithEstonia,LatviaorLithuania.

Putinhaschangedthedynamicsoftheregion-andispartlywhyWhiteHouseofficialshaveorganisedtheNordicsummit.

"Youcan'tassumeit'sjustrhetoric,"saidGeorgetownUniversity'sAngelaStent,whowritesaboutUS-Russiarelations.ShesaidWhiteHouse
officialsaretakingtheRussianstatementsseriously.

Administrationofficialssaidthatthesummitwasconvenedasawayto"deepenUS-Nordiccooperation".Theyalsosaiditshowstheircommitment
tothesecurityoftheNordicregion.

AmbassadorLarsGertLoseofDenmarkdescribedan"unpredictable"Russia

AtthesummitUSofficialswilltalktotheirNordiccounterpartsaboutdealingwithan"unpredictable"Russia,asLosesaid,diplomatically.

UniversityofColorado'sBenjaminTeitelbaum,theauthorofabookabouttheNordicnations,saidofficialshavebeensurprisedatPutin's
aggression.

Teitelbaumsaid:"Thisisatraumaticthing."

Sotraumatic,infact,thatsomeSwedesarenowtalkingaboutjoiningNato.SwedenisapartnerofNato,butit'snotofficiallyamember.

Overtheyears,Swedeshavebecomemoreopentotheideaofjoiningthealliance.In1994only15%ofSwedeswantedtobecomeNato
members,accordingtoSOMInstitute,anindependentorganisationattheUniversityofGothenburg.

Lastyear,accordingtoresearcherKarlYden,nearly40%ofSwedessupportedtheprospectofmembership.

They'reinterested-butatthispointnothingwillchange.

OfficialsintheSwedishgovernment,acoalitionofleft-leaningparties,havenoplanstoapplyforNatomembership,saidAmbassadorBjrnLyrvall.

HespokewithmeattheSwedishembassy,locatedinabuildingnearthePotomacRiver.Hiscolleague,MonicaEnqvist,offeredmecoffeeanda
plateofhavreflarn(oatcrisps).

AtelevisionsetwasturnedtoMSNBC,muted.TheTVisanchoredonawallnearanIvanAguelipaintingofafieldandblue-greysky.
 "It'scontemplative,"saidLyrvall,whohassandy-colouredhairthatfallsoverhisforehead.AshetalkedaboutRussia,helookedoutsideattherain.

"Swedishweather,"saidEnqvist,later.

AmbassadorBjrnLyrvallsaidthatsomeSwedesareconsideringNatomembership

AsenioradministrationofficialsaidheplannedtoreassurehisNordiccounterpartsatthesummitabouttheirsecurityandsaidhe'ddeliveranupbeat
message:"Yes,theUSstandsbyitscommitmenttoyoursecurity."

TheofficialremindedmeofthereassuringremarksthatthepresidenthadmadeyearsagointheBalticregion.

"We'llbehereforEstonia.WewillbehereforLatvia.WewillbehereforLithuania,"ObamasaidinTallinn,Estonia,inSeptember2014."Youlost
yourindependenceoncebefore.WithNato,youwillneverloseitagain."

It'sanoblesentiment-butperhapsnotrealistic.AnewstudybyresearchersatRandCorporation,aUSthink-tank,showedthatifRussiaattacked
theBaltics,Natowouldn'tbeabletodefendthem.

Administrationofficialssaidthey'vebeenbeefingupsecurityintheregionandareworkingwithallies-andthatthesummitispartoftheireffort.

LateonFridaymorning,ObamaandtheNordicleaderswillspeakbrieflywithreporters.They'llissueadeclarationwith"substantiallanguage",said
Lyrvall,aboutRussia.

Intheeveningthey'llhavedinneronthesouthlawn-"agrandevent",hesaid.Obamawillmakeatoast,andsowillleadersofDenmarkand
Iceland.

Lyrvallmaybeanintrospective-andbrooding-Swede.Buthesaidthathepaysnoattentiontounluckysigns,adding:"Ithinkwehaveastrong
enoughrelationshiptowithstandthe13thofMay."

Follow@Tara_MckelveyonTwitter.

----------Forwardedmessage----------

From:MartaBurachok<marta.burachok@gmail.com>
Date:Sat,May14,2016at8:51AM
Subject:Russiadopingcover-upclaims'nonsenseandslanderous'-BBCSport[ED:Comeswithashortobservation][Sidenote:Thefolkswho
competedagainstLegkovknowbetter]
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

http://www.bbc.com/sport/winter-sports/36284161

Russiadopingcover-upclaims'nonsenseandslanderous'

Russiawon13goldmedalsattheSochiWinterOlympicsin2014-includingthosewonbyZubkov(left)andLegkov

TwoRussianathletesnamedindopingallegationsbythenation'sformeranti-dopingchiefhaverejectedtheclaimsas"nonsenseand
slanderous".

InaNewYorkTimesreport,DrGrigoryRodchenkovallegesdozensofathletes,includingatleast15medallistsatthe2014WinterOlympics,
werepartofanextensivestate-rundopingprogramme.

SkierAlexanderLegkovandbobsledderAlexanderZubkovinsisttheyareclean.

TheInternationalOlympicCommitteesaidtheclaimsmustbeinvestigated.
 ButLegkov,whowongoldandsilvermedalsinSochi,saidlegalaction"needed"tobetakenovertheallegations.

"Itiscompleterubbishandweneedtostopit,"hesaid.

"Iperformedhonestly.MyOlympicvictorywasnotaccidental."

Zubkov,whowontwogoldmedalsinSochi,added:"ItisallnonsenseandslanderdirectedatRussiansportsmenwhotookpartintheOlympics.It
isunacceptable."

Rodchenkovdescribedamassive,tightlyorganiseddopingoperationinvolvingRussia'ssecurityserviceandthesportsministry.

SportsMinisterVitalyMutkohascondemnedtheallegationsas"acontinuationoftheinformationattackonRussiansport".

KremlinspokesmanDmitryPeskovaddedtheywere"unsubstantiated"andthe"slanderofadefector".

FormerRussiananti-dopingagencyworkerVitalyStepanovhadalsoclaimedontheCBSnetwork's60Minutesprogrammethatundercover
Russianintelligenceagentsposedasanti-dopingstafftocoverupcheatingatSochi.

TheBBCandtheWorldAnti-DopingAgency(Wada)havebeenunabletoindependentlyverifytheallegationsmadeinthe
programme.[ED:DidanyoneevernoticethatalloftheRU'BreakingBad'storiesarealwaysqualifiedas'alleged'?Didanyoneever
thesamecourtesyisnotextendedtoUA???]

RussianathleteshavealreadybeenbannedfrominternationalcompetitionbytheInternationalAssociationofAthleticsFederations(IAAF),
thesport'sworldgoverningbody,afteraWadacommissionreportalleged"state-sponsored"dopinginthecountry.

RodchenkovlefthispostafterthereportwaspublishedinNovember2015.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:PeterBorisow<ap.borisow@comcast.net>
Date:Sat,May14,2016at12:11PM
Subject:Putin'sSyndicateAndTheLaw[ED:Heckofaread!!]
To:"Waz(Columbia)"<waz2102@columbia.edu>

PanamaPapersarecreatingproblemsfortheWorld'sMostSuccessfulCriminal.Wheredidthe$1.3[Trillion]endup?Inhowmanymajorcorporations
(includingUS/EU)isthatstashinvested?IsPutin'sFinancialEmpiretoobigtobetoppled,toobigtofail?

http://www.rferl.org/content/putins-syndicate-and-the-law/27732468.html

ThePowerVertical

Putin'sSyndicateAndTheLaw
Print

Comment(2)

Share:
 WiththebehaviorofVladimirPutin'sRussiaoftenresemblingthatofaninternationalcrimesyndicate,theKremlin'sstridentresponsetoWesterncountriesenforcingtheirlawsishardlysurprising.(filephoto)

ByBrianWhitmore

May13,2016

I fyou'venationalizedandweaponizedyourmafia,it'sonlynaturaltoviewaninvestigationintoorganizedcrimeasaggression.

Ityouusecorruptionasatoolofstatecraft,you'llprobablyseeeffortstofostergreatertransparencyashostile.

Ifassassinations,embezzlement,moneylaundering,andarmstraffickingarepartofyourforeignpolicytoolkit,itisnotsurprising
thatyouthinkprosecutingsuchthingsisanactofwar.

AleksandrBastrykincertainlythinksitis.

InawidelydiscussedarticleinKommersantVlastlastmonth,theRussianInvestigativeCommitteechiefsaid"internationallaw
andthejusticebasedonit,haveincreasinglybecometoolsofwar"againstMoscow.

AndforonceIactuallyagreewithBastrykin--withjustasmalltweak.Iwouldreplacetheword"war"with"counterinsurgency."

Because,withtheKremlinactivelyusingcorruption,organizedcrime,moneylaundering,andcyberattackstoundermineand
weakenWesterninstitutions,thebestweaponagainstthisinsidiousandstealthyinsurgencyisthedirectandopenapplicationof
theruleoflaw.

"AneffectiveWesternresponsetoRussia'smulti-dimensionalchallengerequiresawholeofgovernmentapproach,"veteran
Kremlin-watcherJamesSherrofChathamHousewroterecently.

"Unlessnon-defensearmsofgovernment(judicial,financial,regulatory)understandthedefenseandsecurityimplicationsoftheir
responsibilities,theywillnotbefitforpurpose."

Inotherwords,corruptionandtransnationalcrimearenationalsecurityissuesofthehighestmagnitude,andWestern
governmentsarestartingtotreatthemassuch.

"Inan'asymmetric'strugglewiththeUnitedStates,PutinandRussiahavetobeinnovative,catchtheWestoffguard,andfight
 dirty,"FionaHill,aseniorfellowattheBrookingsInstitutionandco-authorofthebookMr.Putin:OperativeintheKremlin,wrote
recently.

PartoffightingdirtymeanstheKremlin'sisusingcorruptbusinessdealsandorganizedcrimetocompromiseofficialsand
businesselites,weakenresolve,andestablishTrojanHorsesinWesterncountries.

AndWesterngovernmentsarebecomingincreasingvigilantaboutcounteringthegeopoliticalthreatstemmingfromPutin's
weaponizationofglobalization.

TheEuropeanUnionhasbecomemoreassertiveinenforcingitsThirdEnergyPackageandpreventingGazpromfromflouting
antimonopolylaws.

HotRussianmoneyinEurope'sbanksandpropertymarketsisdrawingmorescrutiny.

OutrageovertherevelationsinthePanamaPapersareforcinggovernmentstocrackdownonoffshorehavens.

AndWesternlawenforcementhasmovedtopullthemaskoffMoscow'smorebrazenstate-sponsoredcriminalactivity.

TheconclusionofaBritishinvestigationbackinFebruarythatKremlinagentsassassinatedRussiandefectorAleksandr
LitvinenkowitharareradioactiveisotopeintheheartofLondonin2006--andthatVladimirPutinprobablygavethegreenlight--
isoneexample.

SpanishJudgeJosedelaMataissuinginternationalarrestwarrantsforadozenRussians--includingcurrentandformerofficials
--forlinkstoorganizedcrimeearlierthismonthisanother.

Alsothismonth,PortuguesepolicebrokeupaRussianorganizedcrimenetworkthathadreportedlyboughtcontrolofsoccer
clubsandusedthemtolaunderblackcash.

WiththebehaviorofVladimirPutin'sRussiaoftenresemblingthatofaninternationalcrimesyndicate,itonlystandstoreason
thattheKremlinwouldgetabsolutelyhystericalwheneverWesterncountriesexercisetheirsovereignrighttoenforcetheirown
lawsagainstRussianperpetrators.

"Thiseliteregardedglobalizationasabuffet--thattheycanenjoyalltheopportunitiesofbeingEuropeanswhileatthesametime
maintainingtheircapacitytostealwithimpunitybackwithinRussia,"NewYorkUniversity'sMarkGaleotti,anexpertonRussian
organizedcrime,toldTheMoscowTimes.

"Nowtheyarefindingthatthisisbecomingharderandharder."

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:PeterBorisow<ap.borisow@comcast.net>
Date:Sat,May14,2016at9:05AM
Subject:Eurovision2016:Russia'sSergeyLazarevfavouritetowin-BBCNews[ED:PB'sUseoftheWord"Pimp"toDescribeBBC'sWorkOn
BehalfofOl'Sergein'Spoton'.....ReadandWeep][AGoodReminderoftheKindofWondrousWorkBBCDidWithItsGirkin-Strelkov
InterviewsinDonbasduringtheEarlyStagesoftheRU-UAWar]
To:"Waz(Columbia)"<waz2102@columbia.edu>

BBCdoeswhatitcantopimpforPutin'sLondongradMultimillionDollar'SlickasSpit'Eurovisioncandidate.

http://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-36284814

Eurovision2016:Russia'sSergeyLazarevfavouritetowin
14May2016

FromthesectionEntertainment&Arts
ImagecopyrightGETTYIMAGESImagecaptionSergeyLazarev,whohailsfromSochi,isawell-knownsingerinRussia

Russiaisthefavouritetowinthisyear'sEurovisionSongContest,whichistakingplaceinStockholm.

Russia'sSergeyLazarev,ahugepopstarinthecountry,iswidelytippedtowinwithhistechnoballad,YouAreTheOnlyOne.

Australia,France,SwedenandUkrainearealsohotlytippedforsuccessinthecompetition.
TherunningorderforthecontestwasunveiledonFriday,withtheUK'sJoeandJakeperformingsecondlast.
Theduo,bothofwhomareformercontestantsofTheVoiceUK,werechosentorepresentBritaininapublicvoteinFebruary.
Followourlivecoverageofthecontest.

ImagecopyrightGETTYIMAGESImagecaptionJoeandJakewillrepresenttheUKinSaturdaynight'scontest

JoeandJakequalifiedforthefinalautomaticallyastheUKisoneofthebiggestfinancialcontributorstoEurovision,sothepairdidnothaveto
performatthesemi-final.

Eurovision2016:Reporter'sdiary
WhatdofansloveaboutEurovision?

WhyisRussiasodesperatetowinEurovision?

WhowastheUK'sfirstEurovisionsinger?

Ukrainiansinger's'familystory'

MichaelBall:'MyadviceforJoeandJake'

OtherfinalistsincludeUkraine-whoseentrantJamalaisthefirsteverCrimeanTatartoperformatthecontest.

Herpoliticallychargedsong1944isnottypicalEurovisionfare-itslyricsincludereferencestoStalin,Crimea,andclaimsofethniccleansing.

ThesonghasangeredRussia,whichannexedCrimeafromUkrainein2014,astensionbetweenthetwocountriesgrew.
IrelandwasknockedoutofthecontestafterformerWestlifesingerNickyByrnefailedtoqualifyinThursday'ssemi-final.

IthasbeenabadyearforScandinavianentries.

DenmarkandNorwaywereknockedoutinthesemi-finals,whichweredecidedbasedonacombinationofpublicandjuryvoting.Icelandand
Finlandalsofailedtomakeitthrough.

However,asreigningwinners,Swedenhasautomaticallyadvancedtothegrandfinal.

TheCzechRepublichasalsomadeittothefinal-thefirsttimeithasqualifiedsincethesemi-finalsystemwasintroducedin2004.

ImagecopyrightAFP/GETTYImagecaptionFormerWestlifestarNickyByrnefailedtoqualifyinThursday'ssemi-final

AustralianXFactorwinnerDamiIm,whowasmentoredbypopstarDanniiMinogue,wasvotedthroughtothefinalwithhersongSoundOf
Silence.

DespitebeingontheothersideoftheworldfromEurope,AustraliawasinvitedtojoinEurovisionforits60thanniversaryin2015,when
contestantGuySebastianfinishedinfifthplace.

Russiafavourites
AvictoryforsingerSergeyLazarevwouldmeanRussiawouldhostthecontestnextyearforthesecondtime-thecountryfirstwonin2008.

Russiaisknownforitscontroversiallawsregardinghomosexuality,makingitanunusualhostforaneventwithastrongLGBTfollowing.
LazarevtoldtheBBCtheLGBTcommunitywillbewelcomedtohiscountryifhewinsthecontest.

"GaylifeexistsinRussia,hesaid."Thereismoretalkandrumoursaboutproblemsthanexist.Ijustwantyoutocomeandseeeverything
yourself."

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:PeterBorisow<ap.borisow@comcast.net>
Date:Sat,May14,2016at10:43AM
Subject:Kitsch,glitzandpoliticsasRussiaslatedtowinEurovision|GlobalPost
To:"Waz(Columbia)"<waz2102@columbia.edu>

Oneofthekeysto"hybridwarfare"isflexibility.Here,Putin'sImageDeceptifiersgethimtoswallowhishomophobiaastheyhustletopimpRussia'sMultimillion
DollarSlickAsSpitCandidateintheEuroVisioncompetition.

TocounterUS/EUdisgustwithPutin'sNeo-NaziresurgenceinRussia,they'repandering(atleasttemporarily)totheLGBTcommunity.IntheUS,the
competitionisbeingcarriedbytheLogoChannel,whichisaimedatLGBTclients.Logo'slargestmarketisWestHollywood,whichalsojusthappenstobe
hometothelargestRussiancommunityintheUS(aswellasofLenin'sBigGiantHeadstatue).

What'snextforRussia?AGayPrideParadeinRedSquare?Cantheworld'slargestsynagogueinMoscowbefarbehind?Don'tkidyourself.Onestepback
todayfortwostepsforwardtomorrow.It'sallpartofthegame.

http://www.globalpost.com/article/6769303/2016/05/13/kitsch-glitz-and-politics-russia-slated-win-eurovision

NEXTSECTION......."IFTHERIGHTONEWON'TGETYA,THENTHELEFTONEWILL.....'[FromanOldTennesseeErnie
Fordsong]

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:PeterBorisow<apb.uke@earthlink.net>
Date:Sat,May14,2016at10:50AM
Subject:Fwd:AntiUkrainian"Workshop"inNewYork[OntheUSPOPULIST(OCC-WS)LEFT.....fearofafascist(read:Neo-Nazi)regimeina
countrythathasaprimeministerofJewishfaith.....toorichforwords]
To:"Waz(Columbia)"<waz2102@columbia.edu>

Walter,haveyouheardaboutthis?

Beginforwardedmessage:

From:"BohdanFutala"<bfutala@verizon.net>

Date:May13,20169:10:36PMPDT

To:<bbesaha@yahoo.com>,"PeterBorisov"<apb.uke@earthlink.com>,"AndyFedynsky"<fedynsky@sbcglobal.net>,"LeoIwaskiw"
<liwaskiw@provassn.com>,<hanya@brama.com>,"MyronMelnyk"<mmelnyk@yahoo.com>,<ajmotyl@andromeda.rutgers.edu>,"Oryssia
Prokopovitch"<oryssia@hotmail.com>,"MyroslavaRozdolska"<myroslavar@hotmail.com>,<Unis.sawkiw@comcast.net>

Subject:AntiUkrainian"Workshop"inNewYork

NoticedthiseventlistedinTheUkrainianWeeklyatCCNYonSaturday5/21.ThepanelconsistsexclusivelyofproPutindiscipleswhoundoubtedlywillpresenta
convolutedanti-Ukrainiannarrative.ItwouldseemtobeincumbentuponMaidansupportersintheNYCareatoconfrontthem.Pleaseforwardthisinformation.

http://www.leftforum.org/content/situation-ukraine

Session1Room1.113Sat10:00am-11:50am

PanelProposal/WorkshopInformation
Panel/WorkshopYear:

2016

Abstract:

FightingcontinuesinUkrainewithrebelsinchargeoftheEasternareasofthecountryanddeclaringtheirindependencefromKiev.Strugglealsocontinuesin
otherpartsofthecountryagainstthedraftandtherightwinggovernment.OnMay2,wereachedthe2yearanniversaryofthefascistattackon
demonstratorattheOdessaHouseofTradeUnions,where46peoplewerekilled.AleaderoftheprogressivemovementfromOdessawilljointhispanel

SponsoringJournal:

UnitedNationalAntiwarCoalition(UNAC)

Panel/WorkshopTopics:

Europe

MorePanel/WorkshopInformation

DiversityofPersepctives:

ThispanelwillfeaturealeaderoftheprogressivemovementfromOdessawhoopposetherightwinggovernementinKiev.Shewillbejoinedbyother
speakerstodiscussthesituationwiththerebelheldareasofthecountryandthecontinuingstruggleinUkraine.

Participants

Chair/Facilitator:

Name:PhilWilayto ViewDetails

Speakers/Co-Facilitators:

Name:IrinaKovel ViewDetails

Name:GregButterfield ViewDetails

Name:BruceGagnon ViewDetails

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:BFD
Date:2016-05-149:35GMT-04:00
Subject:[ONTHEPOPULISTRIGHTINTHEUS.........TheDon-VladBromanceContinues]
To:

DonaldTrumpGoesHisOwnWayWithVladimirPutin
WarmwordsandpushtoimprovetieswithMoscowarentsharedbyBarackObama,Republicanpresidentialrivals
RussianPresidentVladimirPutinattendsameetingwithmembersoftheLegislativeCouncilinSt.Petersburglastmonth.PHOTO:ALEXEIDRUZHININ/ASSOCIATEDPRESS

ByDamianPalettaTheWallStreetJournal

UpdatedMay13,20164:57p.m.ET

DonaldTrumpmadeanunusualpublicoverturetoRussianPresidentVladimirPutininJune2013,tryingtoginuppublicityforaneventhe
wasco-hostingthatyear.

DoyouthinkPutinwillbegoingtoTheMissUniversePageantinNovemberinMoscowifso,willhebecomemynewbestfriend?thereal
estatemagnatetweeted.

Thatappealcamelessthan24hoursafterPresidentBarackObamaandMr.Putinheldatense,unproductivemeetingatasummitofworld
leadersinNorthernIreland,astheysparredoverhowtode-escalatetheconflictinSyria.Ourpositionsdonotfullycoincide,Mr.Putinsaid
terselyafterward.

Mr.Trump,thepresumptiveGOPpresidentialnominee,hasproposedredrawingawiderangeofU.S.policies,includingtaxandimmigration
rules,tradeagreementsandengagementintheMiddleEast.Butinnoareahashebeenmorepersistentandperhapsmoreconsistent
thanhiscalltoimproverelationswithMr.Putin,anauthoritarianfigureoftenatoddswiththeU.S.

Mr.TrumpsviewsonMr.PutinseparatehimnotjustfromMr.ObamabutfromhisformerGOPrivals,andfromconservativesaswellas
liberals.Sen.MarcoRubio(R.,Fla.)calledMr.Putinagangsterandathug,andDemocraticfront-funnerHillaryClintonhastermedhima
bully,whileMr.Trumpcallshimverybrightandastrongleader.

ItsunclearwhetherMessrs.TrumpandPutinhavespokensincethecampaignbegan.Theyhaveexchangedpleasantriesinpublic
statements,butremaincoyaboutwhethertheyhavehadprivatediscussions.(SeeManafortarticle.TheQuietAmericanB/F]

Ibelieveaneasingoftensions,andimprovedrelationswithRussiafromapositionofstrengthonlyispossible,absolutelypossible,Mr.
Trumpsaidinaforeign-policyspeechatWashingtonsMayflowerHotelinApril.SomesaytheRussianswontbereasonable.Iintendtofind
out.

Afewminutesbeforehemadethoseremarks,Mr.TrumpmetataVIPreceptionwithRussiasambassadortotheU.S.,SergeyIvanovich
Kislyak.Mr.TrumpwarmlygreetedMr.Kislyakandthreeotherforeignambassadorswhocametothereception.

TheoriginofMr.TrumpsaffectionforRussiaisunclear.HetraveledtoMoscowinthe1990sinsearchofreal-estatedeals,buthiscompany
isntbelievedtohavepropertiesthere.HesaidlastweekthathisexperiencewithRussianofficialsincludedhostingthe2013MissUniverse
event.HedrewattentionforfloatingtheideaofaTrumpTowerinMoscow,butthestatusofthatprojectisalsounclear.

Mr.TrumpsprimarydiplomaticgoalregardingRussiaappearstobetoletMr.PutindealwithproblemsinSyriaandelsewhereinthe
Mideast,allowingtheU.S.todisengage.

OneproposalthathasgarneredpositiveRussianattentionisMr.TrumpssuggestionthattheNorthAtlanticTreatyOrganizationfocuson
combatingterrorisminsteadofdeterringRussianaggression.ThatalarmsofficialsinUkraineandtheBaltics,formerSovietstatesthatfear
theycouldbecomeMr.PutinsnexttargetsfollowingRussiasannexationofUkrainianregionofCrimeainearly2014.

TheKremlinhassignaleditspleasedwithMr.Trumpssuccessandmessage.Mr.Trumpsayshewantstomovetoanotherlevelofrelations,
tocloseranddeeperrelationswithRussiahowcanwenotwelcomethat?Mr.PutinsaidinDecember.Ofcourse,wewelcomeit.

ButMr.TrumpsrisehasunsettledanumberofveteranU.S.diplomats.

Theresamythologyaboutforeignpolicythatitsjustlikedeal-makinginthebusinessworld,andifyoudontlikethedeal,youcanjustwalk
away,saidMichaelMcFaul,acriticofMr.TrumpandformerU.S.ambassadortoRussiaunderMr.Obama.Inforeignpolicy,youcantwalk
away.Itcancomebacktobiteyou.Itcancreatevacuums.

U.S.relationswithMoscowhavedeterioratedinrecentyears,especiallysincetheannexationofCrimea.WashingtonhaschafedatRussias
backingforSyrianPresidentBasharal-Assad,andWesterndiplomatsbelieveMr.PutinislookingforwaystoaggressivelyassertRussias
regionalandglobalinfluence,withlittlerespectforhumanrights.

Atthesametime,WesternleadershavesoughtwaystoworkwithMoscowwheretheycan,inareasfromthenucleardealwithIrantothecivil
warinSyria.

Mr.TrumpisnotthefirstfiguretospeakofimprovingrelationswithRussiaandMr.Putin.Thelasttwopresidentshavevoicedsimilaraims,
onlytoseetheireffortsfounderinthefaceofgeopoliticalevents.

In2001,then-PresidentGeorgeW.BushsaidafterameetingwithMr.PutinthatIwasabletogetasenseofhissoul,aremarkthatwas
widelyderided,especiallyafterMr.PutintookaggressiveactionslikemovingintoneighboringGeorgiain2008.

Mr.ObamasteamalsospokeofresettingrelationswithRussia,buthe,too,hasseenrelationsdeteriorate,tothepointthatNATOhas
suspendedmuchofitsnascentcooperationwithRussia.

Althoughmanyconservativeforeign-policyexpertshavebalkedatMr.TrumpsoverturestoRussia,someagreethatitmaybetimetorethink
U.S.-Russiarelations.

WhatwehavenowinthedynamicsbetweenPutinandObamaisveryunhelpful,saidDimitriSimes,presidentoftheCenterfortheNational
Interest,whichhostedMr.Trumpsforeign-policyspeech.ObamaclearlydoesnottrustPutin,doesnotlikePutin,anddoesnthideit.Ithink
thatPutindoesntlikeObama,isnotafraidofObama,anddoesntparticularlyrespectObama.

Perhapsillustratingthat,Mr.PutinrejectedaninvitationfromMr.ObamatoattendasummitonnuclearweaponsinApril,sayingtheU.S.
hadntproperlyacknowledgedRussiasstatusasaworldpower.

Mr.TrumpseizedonthetensionafterRussianwarplanesandamilitaryhelicopterlastmonthbuzzedaU.S.NavyDestroyerintheBalticSea.

Itsjustnorespectforourpresidentorourcountry,andheistweakingus,Mr.TrumpsaidofMr.PutinonFoxNews.Ifitwereme,Iwilltell
you,IwouldcallhimandIwouldsay,Dontdoit.Juststopit.Dontdoit.

Headded,Andtheyregoingtorespectus,andIvehadasortofsemi-nicerelationshipwithPutinsaidverynicethingsaboutme.

 From: KyleWilson<wilsonkyle81@gmail.com>
Senttime: 05/11/201601:22:38PM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: Fwd:AMandDAattheHoC

Saysitall,really.

SentfrommyiPad

Beginforwardedmessage:

From:JulianCooper<J.M.COOPER@bham.ac.uk>
Date:11May201623:09:01AEST
To:SilvanaMalle<silvana.malle@univr.it>,'KyleWilson'<wilsonkyle81@gmail.com>
Cc:'RodricBraithwaite'<rqbraithwaite@mac.com>,'StephenFortescue'<s.fortescue@unsw.edu.au>,
"phill_hanson@outlook.com"<phill_hanson@outlook.com>,"john.besemeres@anu.edu.au"
<john.besemeres@anu.edu.au>,RichardConnolly<R.Connolly@bham.ac.uk>,"keith.bush017@gmail.com"
<keith.bush017@gmail.com>,'RodericLyne'<rodericlyne@hotmail.com>,"rghorvath@yahoo.com"
<rghorvath@yahoo.com>,'ElizabethTeague'<teagueeliza@aol.com>,"Ian@cer.org.uk"<Ian@cer.org.uk>,'Bobo
Lo'<bobolo_uk@yahoo.co.uk>,"carolina.vendil.pallin@foi.se"<carolina.vendil.pallin@foi.se>,'KlausSegbers'
<segbers@zedat.fu-berlin.de>,"HansonPhl@aol.com"<HansonPhl@aol.com>
Subject:RE:AMandDAattheHoC

IdidindeeddrawSilvana'sattentiontotheNationalInterestandtheCenterofthesamename(presidentDimitriSimes,
honorarychair,Kissinger)asIthinkitdoesquiteagoodjobinkeepingaliveseriousdiscussionofforeignpolicyissues,
whetheroneagreesordisagreeswiththeviewsexpressed.IttooktheinitiativeinofferingTrumpanopportunitytospell
outhisviewsonforeignpolicy,whichIthoughtwasworthwhilegiventhathemayendupasthenextpresident.Certainly
hereintheUK,thegeneralresponsetoTrumpistotreathimasajoke,justaclownnotqualifiedforhighoffice,whichI
don'tfindverysensible.LikeSilvana,Iamnotafanofeitheroftheleadcandidates.HereisatakeonClintononthe
NationalInterestwebsitetodayinmyviewnotentirelyunfair:
http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-skeptics/clintons-road-the-white-house-paved-war-16068

Julian

From:SilvanaMalle[silvana.malle@univr.it]
Sent:11May201613:44
To:'KyleWilson'
Cc:'RodricBraithwaite'JulianCooper'StephenFortescue'phill_hanson@outlook.comjohn.besemeres@anu.edu.au
RichardConnollykeith.bush017@gmail.com'RodericLyne'rghorvath@yahoo.com'ElizabethTeague'Ian@cer.org.uk
'BoboLo'carolina.vendil.pallin@foi.se'KlausSegbers'HansonPhl@aol.com
Subject:R:AMandDAattheHoC

Kyle,IhavenopreferenceforeitherTrumporClinton.PoorAmericans,notagoodalternativefromanypointof
view.
Interestingtome,thissideofourcomplicateword,isnotinghowtheforeignpolicylandscapeisnowgradually
changingintheUS.Hagelisonlythelatestamonghighprofileconservativesechoingwhatonecanreadalmost
regularlyfromNationalInterest(courtesyofJuliantodrawmyattentiontothispublication).s
Da: Kyle Wilson [mailto:wilsonkyle81@gmail.com]
Inviato: mercoled 11 maggio 2016 13:45
A: Silvana Malle
Cc: Rodric Braithwaite; Julian Cooper; Stephen Fortescue; <phill_hanson@outlook.com>; <john.besemeres@anu.edu.au>;
Richard Connolly; <keith.bush017@gmail.com>; Roderic Lyne; <rghorvath@yahoo.com>; Elizabeth Teague;
<Ian@cer.org.uk>; Bobo Lo; <carolina.vendil.pallin@foi.se>; Klaus Segbers; <HansonPhl@aol.com>
Oggetto: Re: AM and DA at the HoC

DearSilvana,

I'mpuzzled:doyouthinkweshouldurgeourAmericanfriendsandacquaintancestovoteforTrump?Andthatwe
shouldhopethatTrumpiselected?OramImissingsomething?

I'mgratefultoRodricforencouragingustoreadthetranscript(Ihavetoadmitthatitslengthdauntedme).Itcovers
somuchterritoryindetailthatIshallspareyouandshan'toffercomment.Obviouslythetwospecialistsare
exceptionallywellinformedandtheirassessmentsstrikemeasdeeplyconsideredandjudicious.Inthemain.

ThepointthatinspeakingtotheRussiansoneneedstohaveaclearideaofwhatoneseekstoachieveseemstome
timely--itoughttobeobvioustoeveryonebutitisn't!

Gawd,wheredidthisKawczynskispringfrom?RTshouldrecruithim.HowunfairofDanilevskitoaccusethePoles
ofbeingthe'SlavicJudases'.

ThattheFSBdecidedtosilenceLitvinenkowithoutseekingPutin'sagreementrunscountertoeverythingI'velearned
abouthowRussiaworks.LitvinenkohadtobesilencedbecauseofknowledgehehadthatcoulddamagePutin.That
isnotonlylogical:itistheviewoftheonlypersonIknowwhoknowsPutinquitewell.

Andit'softenforgottenthattheoperationwasexposedbysheerchance:itmayhavebeencarriedoutclumsily,with
thattrailofPoloniumacrossEurope,buttheideawasingenious.AndhaditnotbeenforfortheacuityofaBritish
scientistitwouldnothavebeenexposed.

Kyle

SentfrommyiPad

On11May2016,at17:53,SilvanaMalle<silvana.malle@univr.it>wrote:

Hagel,andperhapsotherW.DCrevisionists,seemtoagreewithsensibleAMandDA.s
http://tass.ru/mezhdunarodnayapanorama/3271128-:

102016

",
",-
,10././.
.
,
,.
",,
,
",-."
,,-
.-,
,,,".
-,",
,".
-.,
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.
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.",-."
,,.",-
.,45-,
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:"".,
"".
172015,-,
,
.
,
."(),,
.?,",-
.

Da: Rodric Braithwaite [mailto:rqbraithwaite@mac.com]

Inviato: mercoled 11 maggio 2016 07:19
A: Julian Cooper; Stephen Fortescue; phill_hanson@outlook.com; john.besemeres@anu.edu.au;
ErcFried@aol.com; Richard Connolly; keith.bush017@gmail.com; silvana.malle@univr.it; Roderic Lyne;
rghorvath@yahoo.com; Rodric Braithwaite; Elizabeth Teague; Ian@cer.org.uk; wilsonkyle81@gmail.com;
Bobo Lo; carolina.vendil.pallin@foi.se; Klaus Segbers; HansonPhl@aol.com
Oggetto: Fwd: Item by Gleb Pavlovsky Word document

IdontthinkanyonehascommentedontheevidencebyAverreandMonaghamtowhichJuliandrew
ourattention.Iagreewithhim:theytalkalotofsense.ButIdbeinterestedinotherviewstoo.

Beginforwardedmessage:

From:JulianCooper<J.M.COOPER@bham.ac.uk>
Subject:RE:ItembyGlebPavlovsky-Worddocument
Date:7May2016at12:18:54BST
To:StephenFortescue<s.fortescue@unsw.edu.au>,"phill_hanson@outlook.com"
<phill_hanson@outlook.com>
Cc:"john.besemeres@anu.edu.au"<john.besemeres@anu.edu.au>,"ErcFried@aol.com"
<ErcFried@aol.com>,RichardConnolly<R.Connolly@bham.ac.uk>,
"keith.bush017@gmail.com"<keith.bush017@gmail.com>,"silvana.malle@univr.it"
<silvana.malle@univr.it>,"rodericlyne@hotmail.com"<rodericlyne@hotmail.com>,
"rghorvath@yahoo.com"<rghorvath@yahoo.com>,"rqbraithwaite@mac.com"
<rqbraithwaite@mac.com>,"teagueeliza@aol.com"<teagueeliza@aol.com>,
"Ian@cer.org.uk"<Ian@cer.org.uk>,"wilsonkyle81@gmail.com"
<wilsonkyle81@gmail.com>,"bobolo_uk@yahoo.co.uk"<bobolo_uk@yahoo.co.uk>,
"carolina.vendil.pallin@foi.se"<carolina.vendil.pallin@foi.se>,"segbers@zedat.fu-
berlin.de"<segbers@zedat.fu-berlin.de>,"HansonPhl@aol.com"<HansonPhl@aol.com>

Iseereasonforgloomorexistentialdoubts.IthinkthearticletellsusmoreaboutPavlovskiithanitdoes
aboutRussiatoday.Havingreadhis2014bookSistemaRFvvoine2014goda.DePrincipataDebili,many
sectionsarefamiliar,itlookslikeacutandpastejobonthattextwithabitofupdating.Thebookistypical
GP-itisanintellectualgame,thebookbasedonthestructureofMachiavelli's(clearlyGP'shero)ThePrince.
GPusedtoknowhowRussiaworked,hewasontheinsideasaconsultantcreatingthesistema,pullingthe
stringsandlevers,workingwithSurkovandotherswith,Isuspect,quiteconsiderabledegreesof
freedom,butbroadlywithinanunderstoodframeworkacceptabletoPutin.WithMedvedevasPresidenthe
carriedonuntilApril2011whenhewasbanished.HethenfelloutwithPutinashedisagreedwithhis
decisiontoreturnaspresident.HewasfrankaboutthiswhenImethim,inOslo,aboutthreeyearsago.He
wasclearlyembittered,asardonicoutsider,nolongerwithinfluence.Heisnotatheoretician.Hedoesnot
haveanyconceptualrigourevensistemaisnotdefinedinanyconsistent,intelligible,mannerinhisbook,or
inthearticle,itismoreasentimentthanastructuredsystemofpower.ButIfindhimengagingandalways
worthreading,butnottounderstandRussiabetter.Iwouldnotworry,Stephen,carryonwithyourexcellent
analysisofdecisionmakingtowhichweareallindebted.

Tobringusdowntoearth,somequalityanalysisbytwoRussiaspecialists.Somemayfindthefollowingof
interest,DerekAverreandAndrewMonaghangivingevidenceearlierintheweektotheHouseofCommons
ForeignAffairsCommittee:
http://data.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/committeeevidence.svc/evidencedocument/foreign-affairs-
committee/the-uks-relations-with-russia/oral/32880.html

Julian

DonaldTrumpGoesHisOwnWayWithVladimirP.docx

Donald Trump Goes His Own Way With

Vladimir Putin
Warm words and push to improve ties with Moscow arent shared by
Barack Obama, Republican presidential rivals

Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a meeting with members of the Legislative Council in St. Petersburg last
month. PHOTO: ALEXEI DRUZHININ/ASSOCIATED PRESS

By Damian Paletta The Wall Street Journal

Updated May 13, 2016 4:57 p.m. ET

Donald Trump made an unusual public overture to Russian President Vladimir Putin in
June 2013, trying to gin up publicity for an event he was co-hosting that year.

Do you think Putin will be going to The Miss Universe Pageant in November in
Moscowif so, will he become my new best friend? the real estate magnate tweeted.

That appeal came less than 24 hours after President Barack Obama and Mr. Putin held
a tense, unproductive meeting at a summit of world leaders in Northern Ireland, as they
sparred over how to de-escalate the conflict in Syria. Our positions do not fully
coincide, Mr. Putin said tersely afterward.
DonaldTrumpGoesHisOwnWayWithVladimirP.docx

Mr. Trump, the presumptive GOP presidential nominee, has proposed redrawing a wide
range of U.S. policies, including tax and immigration rules, trade agreements and
engagement in the Middle East. But in no area has he been more persistentand
perhaps more consistentthan his call to improve relations with Mr. Putin, an
authoritarian figure often at odds with the U.S.

Mr. Trumps views on Mr. Putin separate him not just from Mr. Obama but from his
former GOP rivals, and from conservatives as well as liberals. Sen. Marco Rubio (R.,
Fla.) called Mr. Putin a gangster and a thug, and Democratic front-funner Hillary
Clinton has termed him a bully, while Mr. Trump calls him very bright and a strong
leader.

Its unclear whether Messrs. Trump and Putin have spoken since the campaign began.
They have exchanged pleasantries in public statements, but remain coy about whether
they have had private discussions.(See Manafort article. The Quiet American bf)

I believe an easing of tensions, and improved relations with Russiafrom a position of

strength onlyis possible, absolutely possible, Mr. Trump said in a foreign-policy
speech at Washingtons Mayflower Hotel in April. Some say the Russians wont be
reasonable. I intend to find out.

A few minutes before he made those remarks, Mr. Trump met at a VIP reception with
Russias ambassador to the U.S., Sergey Ivanovich Kislyak. Mr. Trump warmly greeted
Mr. Kislyak and three other foreign ambassadors who came to the reception.

The origin of Mr. Trumps affection for Russia is unclear. He traveled to Moscow in the
1990s in search of real-estate deals, but his company isnt believed to have properties
there. He said last week that his experience with Russian officials included hosting the
2013 Miss Universe event. He drew attention for floating the idea of a Trump Tower in
Moscow, but the status of that project is also unclear.

Mr. Trumps primary diplomatic goal regarding Russia appears to be to let Mr. Putin
deal with problems in Syria and elsewhere in the Mideast, allowing the U.S. to
disengage.

Some Republicans are expressing concern about presumptive presidential nominee Donald
Trump's effect on down-ballot races this fall. WSJ's Shelby Holliday explains what's at stake in
November. Photo: Associated Press

One proposal that has garnered positive Russian attention is Mr. Trumps suggestion
that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization focus on combating terrorism instead of
deterring Russian aggression. That alarms officials in Ukraine and the Baltics, former
Soviet states that fear they could become Mr. Putins next targets following Russias
annexation of Ukrainian region of Crimea in early 2014.
DonaldTrumpGoesHisOwnWayWithVladimirP.docx

The Kremlin has signaled its pleased with Mr. Trumps success and message. Mr.
Trump says he wants to move to another level of relations, to closer and deeper
relations with Russiahow can we not welcome that? Mr. Putin said in December. Of
course, we welcome it.

But Mr. Trumps rise has unsettled a number of veteran U.S. diplomats.

Theres a mythology about foreign policy that its just like deal-making in the business
world, and if you dont like the deal, you can just walk away, said Michael McFaul, a
critic of Mr. Trump and former U.S. ambassador to Russia under Mr. Obama. In foreign
policy, you cant walk away. It can come back to bite you. It can create vacuums.

U.S. relations with Moscow have deteriorated in recent years, especially since the
annexation of Crimea. Washington has chafed at Russias backing for Syrian President
Bashar al-Assad, and Western diplomats believe Mr. Putin is looking for ways to
aggressively assert Russias regional and global influence, with little respect for human
rights.

At the same time, Western leaders have sought ways to work with Moscow where they
can, in areas from the nuclear deal with Iran to the civil war in Syria.

Mr. Trump is not the first figure to speak of improving relations with Russia and Mr.
Putin. The last two presidents have voiced similar aims, only to see their efforts founder
in the face of geopolitical events.

In 2001, then-President George W. Bush said after a meeting with Mr. Putin that I was
able to get a sense of his soul, a remark that was widely derided, especially after Mr.
Putin took aggressive actions like moving into neighboring Georgia in 2008.

Mr. Obamas team also spoke of resetting relations with Russia, but he, too, has seen
relations deteriorate, to the point that NATO has suspended much of its nascent
cooperation with Russia.

Although many conservative foreign-policy experts have balked at Mr. Trumps

overtures to Russia, some agree that it may be time to rethink U.S.-Russia relations.

What we have now in the dynamics between Putin and Obama is very unhelpful, said
Dimitri Simes, president of the Center for the National Interest, which hosted Mr.
Trumps foreign-policy speech. Obama clearly does not trust Putin, does not like Putin,
and doesnt hide it. I think that Putin doesnt like Obama, is not afraid of Obama, and
doesnt particularly respect Obama.

Perhaps illustrating that, Mr. Putin rejected an invitation from Mr. Obama to attend a
summit on nuclear weapons in April, saying the U.S. hadnt properly acknowledged
Russias status as a world power.
DonaldTrumpGoesHisOwnWayWithVladimirP.docx

Mr. Trump seized on the tension after Russian warplanes and a military helicopter last
month buzzed a U.S. Navy Destroyer in the Baltic Sea.

Its just no respect for our president or our country, and he is tweaking us, Mr. Trump
said of Mr. Putin on Fox News. If it were me, I will tell you, I would call him and I would
say, Dont do it. Just stop it. Dont do it.

He added, And theyre going to respect us, and Ive had a sort of semi-nice relationship
with Putinsaid very nice things about me.
DonaldTrumpGoesHisOwnWayWithVladimirP_0001.docx

Donald Trump Goes His Own Way With

Vladimir Putin
Warm words and push to improve ties with Moscow arent shared by
Barack Obama, Republican presidential rivals

Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a meeting with members of the Legislative Council in St. Petersburg last
month. PHOTO: ALEXEI DRUZHININ/ASSOCIATED PRESS

By Damian Paletta The Wall Street Journal

Updated May 13, 2016 4:57 p.m. ET

Donald Trump made an unusual public overture to Russian President Vladimir Putin in
June 2013, trying to gin up publicity for an event he was co-hosting that year.

Do you think Putin will be going to The Miss Universe Pageant in November in
Moscowif so, will he become my new best friend? the real estate magnate tweeted.

That appeal came less than 24 hours after President Barack Obama and Mr. Putin held
a tense, unproductive meeting at a summit of world leaders in Northern Ireland, as they
sparred over how to de-escalate the conflict in Syria. Our positions do not fully
coincide, Mr. Putin said tersely afterward.
DonaldTrumpGoesHisOwnWayWithVladimirP_0001.docx

Mr. Trump, the presumptive GOP presidential nominee, has proposed redrawing a wide
range of U.S. policies, including tax and immigration rules, trade agreements and
engagement in the Middle East. But in no area has he been more persistentand
perhaps more consistentthan his call to improve relations with Mr. Putin, an
authoritarian figure often at odds with the U.S.

Mr. Trumps views on Mr. Putin separate him not just from Mr. Obama but from his
former GOP rivals, and from conservatives as well as liberals. Sen. Marco Rubio (R.,
Fla.) called Mr. Putin a gangster and a thug, and Democratic front-funner Hillary
Clinton has termed him a bully, while Mr. Trump calls him very bright and a strong
leader.

Its unclear whether Messrs. Trump and Putin have spoken since the campaign began.
They have exchanged pleasantries in public statements, but remain coy about whether
they have had private discussions.(See Manafort article. The Quiet American bf)

I believe an easing of tensions, and improved relations with Russiafrom a position of

strength onlyis possible, absolutely possible, Mr. Trump said in a foreign-policy
speech at Washingtons Mayflower Hotel in April. Some say the Russians wont be
reasonable. I intend to find out.

A few minutes before he made those remarks, Mr. Trump met at a VIP reception with
Russias ambassador to the U.S., Sergey Ivanovich Kislyak. Mr. Trump warmly greeted
Mr. Kislyak and three other foreign ambassadors who came to the reception.

The origin of Mr. Trumps affection for Russia is unclear. He traveled to Moscow in the
1990s in search of real-estate deals, but his company isnt believed to have properties
there. He said last week that his experience with Russian officials included hosting the
2013 Miss Universe event. He drew attention for floating the idea of a Trump Tower in
Moscow, but the status of that project is also unclear.

Mr. Trumps primary diplomatic goal regarding Russia appears to be to let Mr. Putin
deal with problems in Syria and elsewhere in the Mideast, allowing the U.S. to
disengage.

Some Republicans are expressing concern about presumptive presidential nominee Donald
Trump's effect on down-ballot races this fall. WSJ's Shelby Holliday explains what's at stake in
November. Photo: Associated Press

One proposal that has garnered positive Russian attention is Mr. Trumps suggestion
that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization focus on combating terrorism instead of
deterring Russian aggression. That alarms officials in Ukraine and the Baltics, former
Soviet states that fear they could become Mr. Putins next targets following Russias
annexation of Ukrainian region of Crimea in early 2014.
DonaldTrumpGoesHisOwnWayWithVladimirP_0001.docx

The Kremlin has signaled its pleased with Mr. Trumps success and message. Mr.
Trump says he wants to move to another level of relations, to closer and deeper
relations with Russiahow can we not welcome that? Mr. Putin said in December. Of
course, we welcome it.

But Mr. Trumps rise has unsettled a number of veteran U.S. diplomats.

Theres a mythology about foreign policy that its just like deal-making in the business
world, and if you dont like the deal, you can just walk away, said Michael McFaul, a
critic of Mr. Trump and former U.S. ambassador to Russia under Mr. Obama. In foreign
policy, you cant walk away. It can come back to bite you. It can create vacuums.

U.S. relations with Moscow have deteriorated in recent years, especially since the
annexation of Crimea. Washington has chafed at Russias backing for Syrian President
Bashar al-Assad, and Western diplomats believe Mr. Putin is looking for ways to
aggressively assert Russias regional and global influence, with little respect for human
rights.

At the same time, Western leaders have sought ways to work with Moscow where they
can, in areas from the nuclear deal with Iran to the civil war in Syria.

Mr. Trump is not the first figure to speak of improving relations with Russia and Mr.
Putin. The last two presidents have voiced similar aims, only to see their efforts founder
in the face of geopolitical events.

In 2001, then-President George W. Bush said after a meeting with Mr. Putin that I was
able to get a sense of his soul, a remark that was widely derided, especially after Mr.
Putin took aggressive actions like moving into neighboring Georgia in 2008.

Mr. Obamas team also spoke of resetting relations with Russia, but he, too, has seen
relations deteriorate, to the point that NATO has suspended much of its nascent
cooperation with Russia.

Although many conservative foreign-policy experts have balked at Mr. Trumps

overtures to Russia, some agree that it may be time to rethink U.S.-Russia relations.

What we have now in the dynamics between Putin and Obama is very unhelpful, said
Dimitri Simes, president of the Center for the National Interest, which hosted Mr.
Trumps foreign-policy speech. Obama clearly does not trust Putin, does not like Putin,
and doesnt hide it. I think that Putin doesnt like Obama, is not afraid of Obama, and
doesnt particularly respect Obama.

Perhaps illustrating that, Mr. Putin rejected an invitation from Mr. Obama to attend a
summit on nuclear weapons in April, saying the U.S. hadnt properly acknowledged
Russias status as a world power.
DonaldTrumpGoesHisOwnWayWithVladimirP_0001.docx

Mr. Trump seized on the tension after Russian warplanes and a military helicopter last
month buzzed a U.S. Navy Destroyer in the Baltic Sea.

Its just no respect for our president or our country, and he is tweaking us, Mr. Trump
said of Mr. Putin on Fox News. If it were me, I will tell you, I would call him and I would
say, Dont do it. Just stop it. Dont do it.

He added, And theyre going to respect us, and Ive had a sort of semi-nice relationship
with Putinsaid very nice things about me.
 From: teagueeliza@aol.com
Senttime: 05/11/201611:55:45AM
To: robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: Fwd:AMandDAattheHoC

Incaseitisoftheslightestinterest...Otherwise,Iapologiseforsendingyouallthisstuff!

-----OriginalMessage-----
From:JulianCooper<J.M.COOPER@bham.ac.uk>
To:SilvanaMalle<silvana.malle@univr.it>'KyleWilson'<wilsonkyle81@gmail.com>
CC:'RodricBraithwaite'<rqbraithwaite@mac.com>'StephenFortescue'<s.fortescue@unsw.edu.au>phill_hanson
<phill_hanson@outlook.com>john.besemeres<john.besemeres@anu.edu.au>RichardConnolly<R.Connolly@bham.ac.uk>
keith.bush017<keith.bush017@gmail.com>'RodericLyne'<rodericlyne@hotmail.com>rghorvath<rghorvath@yahoo.com>'Elizabeth
Teague'<teagueeliza@aol.com>Ian<Ian@cer.org.uk>'BoboLo'<bobolo_uk@yahoo.co.uk>carolina.vendil.pallin
<carolina.vendil.pallin@foi.se>'KlausSegbers'<segbers@zedat.fu-berlin.de>HansonPhl<HansonPhl@aol.com>
Sent:Wed,11May201614:09
Subject:RE:AMandDAattheHoC

IdidindeeddrawSilvana'sattentiontotheNationalInterestandtheCenterofthesamename(presidentDimitriSimes,honorarychair,
Kissinger)asIthinkitdoesquiteagoodjobinkeepingaliveseriousdiscussionofforeignpolicyissues,whetheroneagreesordisagrees
withtheviewsexpressed.IttooktheinitiativeinofferingTrumpanopportunitytospellouthisviewsonforeignpolicy,whichIthought
wasworthwhilegiventhathemayendupasthenextpresident.CertainlyhereintheUK,thegeneralresponsetoTrumpistotreathim
asajoke,justaclownnotqualifiedforhighoffice,whichIdon'tfindverysensible.LikeSilvana,Iamnotafanofeitherofthelead
candidates.HereisatakeonClintonontheNationalInterestwebsitetodayinmyviewnotentirelyunfair:
http://nationalinterest.org/blog/the-skeptics/clintons-road-the-white-house-paved-war-16068

Julian

From:SilvanaMalle[silvana.malle@univr.it]
Sent:11May201613:44
To:'KyleWilson'
Cc:'RodricBraithwaite'JulianCooper'StephenFortescue'phill_hanson@outlook.comjohn.besemeres@anu.edu.auRichard
Connollykeith.bush017@gmail.com'RodericLyne'rghorvath@yahoo.com'ElizabethTeague'Ian@cer.org.uk'BoboLo'
carolina.vendil.pallin@foi.se'KlausSegbers'HansonPhl@aol.com
Subject:R:AMandDAattheHoC

Kyle,IhavenopreferenceforeitherTrumporClinton.PoorAmericans,notagoodalternativefromanypointofview.
Interestingtome,thissideofourcomplicateword,isnotinghowtheforeignpolicylandscapeisnowgraduallychangingin
theUS.HagelisonlythelatestamonghighprofileconservativesechoingwhatonecanreadalmostregularlyfromNational
Interest(courtesyofJuliantodrawmyattentiontothispublication).s
Da: Kyle Wilson [mailto:wilsonkyle81@gmail.com]
Inviato: mercoled 11 maggio 2016 13:45
A: Silvana Malle
Cc: Rodric Braithwaite; Julian Cooper; Stephen Fortescue; <phill_hanson@outlook.com>; <john.besemeres@anu.edu.au>; Richard
Connolly; <keith.bush017@gmail.com>; Roderic Lyne; <rghorvath@yahoo.com>; Elizabeth Teague; <Ian@cer.org.uk>; Bobo Lo;
<carolina.vendil.pallin@foi.se>; Klaus Segbers; <HansonPhl@aol.com>
Oggetto: Re: AM and DA at the HoC

DearSilvana,

I'mpuzzled:doyouthinkweshouldurgeourAmericanfriendsandacquaintancestovoteforTrump?Andthatweshouldhope
thatTrumpiselected?OramImissingsomething?

I'mgratefultoRodricforencouragingustoreadthetranscript(Ihavetoadmitthatitslengthdauntedme).Itcoverssomuch
territoryindetailthatIshallspareyouandshan'toffercomment.Obviouslythetwospecialistsareexceptionallywellinformedand
theirassessmentsstrikemeasdeeplyconsideredandjudicious.Inthemain.

ThepointthatinspeakingtotheRussiansoneneedstohaveaclearideaofwhatoneseekstoachieveseemstometimely--it
oughttobeobvioustoeveryonebutitisn't!

Gawd,wheredidthisKawczynskispringfrom?RTshouldrecruithim.HowunfairofDanilevskitoaccusethePolesofbeingthe
'SlavicJudases'.

ThattheFSBdecidedtosilenceLitvinenkowithoutseekingPutin'sagreementrunscountertoeverythingI'velearnedabouthow
Russiaworks.LitvinenkohadtobesilencedbecauseofknowledgehehadthatcoulddamagePutin.Thatisnotonlylogical:itis
theviewoftheonlypersonIknowwhoknowsPutinquitewell.

Andit'softenforgottenthattheoperationwasexposedbysheerchance:itmayhavebeencarriedoutclumsily,withthattrailof
PoloniumacrossEurope,buttheideawasingenious.AndhaditnotbeenforfortheacuityofaBritishscientistitwouldnothave
beenexposed.

Kyle

SentfrommyiPad

On11May2016,at17:53,SilvanaMalle<silvana.malle@univr.it>wrote:

Hagel,andperhapsotherW.DCrevisionists,seemtoagreewithsensibleAMandDA.s
http://tass.ru/mezhdunarodnayapanorama/3271128-:
102016

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Da: Rodric Braithwaite [mailto:rqbraithwaite@mac.com]
Inviato: mercoled 11 maggio 2016 07:19
A: Julian Cooper; Stephen Fortescue; phill_hanson@outlook.com; john.besemeres@anu.edu.au; ErcFried@aol.com;
Richard Connolly; keith.bush017@gmail.com; silvana.malle@univr.it; Roderic Lyne; rghorvath@yahoo.com; Rodric
Braithwaite; Elizabeth Teague; Ian@cer.org.uk; wilsonkyle81@gmail.com; Bobo Lo; carolina.vendil.pallin@foi.se; Klaus
Segbers; HansonPhl@aol.com
Oggetto: Fwd: Item by Gleb Pavlovsky Word document

IdontthinkanyonehascommentedontheevidencebyAverreandMonaghamtowhichJuliandrewourattention.I
agreewithhim:theytalkalotofsense.ButIdbeinterestedinotherviewstoo.

Beginforwardedmessage:

From:JulianCooper<J.M.COOPER@bham.ac.uk>
Subject:RE:ItembyGlebPavlovsky-Worddocument
Date:7May2016at12:18:54BST
To:StephenFortescue<s.fortescue@unsw.edu.au>,"phill_hanson@outlook.com"
<phill_hanson@outlook.com>
Cc:"john.besemeres@anu.edu.au"<john.besemeres@anu.edu.au>,"ErcFried@aol.com"
<ErcFried@aol.com>,RichardConnolly<R.Connolly@bham.ac.uk>,"keith.bush017@gmail.com"
<keith.bush017@gmail.com>,"silvana.malle@univr.it"<silvana.malle@univr.it>,
"rodericlyne@hotmail.com"<rodericlyne@hotmail.com>,"rghorvath@yahoo.com"
<rghorvath@yahoo.com>,"rqbraithwaite@mac.com"<rqbraithwaite@mac.com>,
"teagueeliza@aol.com"<teagueeliza@aol.com>,"Ian@cer.org.uk"<Ian@cer.org.uk>,
"wilsonkyle81@gmail.com"<wilsonkyle81@gmail.com>,"bobolo_uk@yahoo.co.uk"
<bobolo_uk@yahoo.co.uk>,"carolina.vendil.pallin@foi.se"<carolina.vendil.pallin@foi.se>,
"segbers@zedat.fu-berlin.de"<segbers@zedat.fu-berlin.de>,"HansonPhl@aol.com"
<HansonPhl@aol.com>

Iseereasonforgloomorexistentialdoubts.IthinkthearticletellsusmoreaboutPavlovskiithanitdoesaboutRussia
today.Havingreadhis2014bookSistemaRFvvoine2014goda.DePrincipataDebili,manysectionsarefamiliar,itlooks
likeacutandpastejobonthattextwithabitofupdating.ThebookistypicalGP-itisanintellectualgame,thebookbased
onthestructureofMachiavelli's(clearlyGP'shero)ThePrince.GPusedtoknowhowRussiaworked,hewasontheinside
asaconsultantcreatingthesistema,pullingthestringsandlevers,workingwithSurkovandotherswith,Isuspect,quite
considerabledegreesoffreedom,butbroadlywithinanunderstoodframeworkacceptabletoPutin.WithMedvedevas
PresidenthecarriedonuntilApril2011whenhewasbanished.HethenfelloutwithPutinashedisagreedwithhis
decisiontoreturnaspresident.HewasfrankaboutthiswhenImethim,inOslo,aboutthreeyearsago.Hewasclearly
embittered,asardonicoutsider,nolongerwithinfluence.Heisnotatheoretician.Hedoesnothaveanyconceptualrigour
evensistemaisnotdefinedinanyconsistent,intelligible,mannerinhisbook,orinthearticle,itismoreasentimentthan
astructuredsystemofpower.ButIfindhimengagingandalwaysworthreading,butnottounderstandRussiabetter.I
wouldnotworry,Stephen,carryonwithyourexcellentanalysisofdecisionmakingtowhichweareallindebted.

Tobringusdowntoearth,somequalityanalysisbytwoRussiaspecialists.Somemayfindthefollowingofinterest,Derek
AverreandAndrewMonaghangivingevidenceearlierintheweektotheHouseofCommonsForeignAffairsCommittee:
http://data.parliament.uk/writtenevidence/committeeevidence.svc/evidencedocument/foreign-affairs-committee/the-uks-
relations-with-russia/oral/32880.html

Julian

 From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 05/09/201608:50:09AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:[HISTORYWARSINFULLSWING]KP:VolodymyrViatrovych:RealandfictionalhistoryinUkraine'sarchives(responsetoJOSH
Subject:
C)......JamesKbacksVV:SovietorWestHardLeftVersionofWWIIhas'HolocaustWithouttheJews.....RUVICTORYDAY2016[OHBO
Attachments: Zhydobanderovtsy.jpg

From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Monday,May09,20168:19AM
To:RomaHadzewyczrl
Subject:[HISTORYWARSINFULLSWING]KP:VolodymyrViatrovych:RealandfictionalhistoryinUkraine'sarchives(responsetoJOSH
C)......JamesKbacksVV:SovietorWestHardLeftVersionofWWIIhas'HolocaustWithouttheJews.....RUVICTORYDAY2016[OH
BOY...

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:larysazariczniak<cymlala@hotmail.com>
Date:Mon,May9,2016at5:38AM
Subject:Viatrovych'sresponse
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

HiWaz,

Here'sViatrovych'sfullresponsetoCohen'sarticleinKP:http://www.kyivpost.com/article/opinion/op-ed/volodymyr-viatrovych-
real-and-fictional-history-in-ukraines-archives-413382.html

TwoQuotesfromVolodymyrV'sResponsetoJoshC:

[1]OneofCohen'sleadingargumentsisthatIam"whitewashing"UkrainianhistorybyincludingtheUkrainian
liberationmovementwithinUkraine'snationalhistoricalnarrativeandignoringit'sinvolvementintheHolocaustandthe
ethniccleansingofPolesduringtheSecondWorldWar.

Hecallsthisa"revisionisthistory"whileIwoulddisagree.DuringtheSovietUnion,thementionofthenationalists
wasautomaticallyassociatedwiththeNazis(eventhoughthetwowerenotthesamething)andtheHolocaustwas
almostcompletelySovietized-theJewswerenotthevictimsoftheHolocaustbutrather"Sovietcitizens"were(asis
statedonthememorialtothevictimsofBabiYarinKyiv).InnowayamI,ortheInstituteofNationalMemory,
falsifyingthe"narrativeoftheHolocaust",especiallywhenthatnarrativeisallbutforgotteninSovietUkrainian
historicaltexts.Ifanything,theInstitutehasworkedhardtoplacetheHolocaust-anditsmemory-backintothe
Ukrainiannationalhistoricalnarrativebyincludingitinpublicdisplaysanddiscussions.

[SEEJAMESK(BELOW)makeVV'spointforhimin'HolocaustwithouttheJews'][AlsonotewhatLubomyrL
sent:"....anti-SemiticandUkrainophobicimagecirculatedbytheRussians(captionreads:"Ukrainian
Nationalists")"]

[2]Cohensystematicallyignoresmorethan10yearsofhistorywheretheUkrainiannationwassplitbetweentwo
largercountries,devastatedbygenocide,thePacification,theGreatTerror,repressionandinter-ethnicstrife.
Yes,theOUNwasamilitantorganization-nohistoriandeniesthatfact.ButwhatCohenisdoingisdenyingthe
importanceoftheOUNtowesternUkrainianhistoryduringtheinterwarperiod-somethinghehimselfaccuses
meofdoingwiththememoryofRedArmysoldiers.I,northeInstituteofNationalMemory,aredenyingthe
"heroismoftheRedArmyduringWorldWarII"-themanycommemorationsandremembrancecelebrations
thatareincludedintheMay8-9festivitiesthroughoutUkraineareaindicationofthis.RedArmysoldierssat
side-by-sidelastyearwiththeveteransoftheUPAandneithergrouphadanyproblemwiththis.

[SEEREUTERSpieceonRUVictoryDayinMoscow2016ANDPutinUSMouthpieceMikeAverko's
scribblesonRU-UA-WWII(ALSOBELOW)]

VolodymyrViatrovych:RealandfictionalhistoryinUkraine'sarchives

VolodymyrViatrovychisthedirectoroftheUkrainianInstituteofNationalMemory.

Editor'sNote:Thefollowingisanop-edbyVolodymyrViatrovych,aUkrainianhistorian
researchingtheUkrainianindependencemovementandthedirectoroftheUkrainianInstitute
ofNationalRemembrancesinceMarch25,2014.ItisaresponsetoastorybyJoshCohenin
ForeignPolicy,headlined"ThehistorianwhitewashingUkraine'spast."Thewebsiteforthe
InstituteofNationalRemembranceishere.

Ioftentalkwithjournalistsfromdifferentcountries,publicationsandwithdifferentviews.
Themoreprofessionalthejournalist,thelesstheyshowtheirownpreferencesandtryto
listenandreflecttheopinionofthepersontheyaretalkingwith.Manyofwhomhave
questionsthatprovokeadiscussion.ButthequestionsposedbyjournalistJoshCohenare
certainlynotjournalisticbutratherthoseofaprosecutor.

AfterreadingseverallinesofhisinitialemailrequestformycommentsonFeb.25,Ialready
understood:heistalkingtomeasifIwastheaccused.Heasked:Howwouldyourespondto
Westernhistorians'allegationsthatyouoryourstaffhaveawillingnesstoignoreoreven
falsifyhistoricaldocuments?Andotherquestionsofthatnature.Adheringtodemocratic
standards,Cohengavemetheopportunitytojustifymyself:Wewouldwelcomeany
statementyouwouldliketomakeinresponsetotheseallegationssothattheymaybe
includedinthearticleForeignPolicyintendstopublishAsweareclosetopublication,I
wouldgreatappreciateareplyinthenexttwodays.

Despitetheangrytoneandtheaccusationsofitsintent(evidenceofactionswerenotfound
becausehehadnone)Ihaveprepareddetailedanswers,fragmentsofwhichtheyprinted.Not
inordertopresentmyheavilyeditedpointofview,butinordertocreatetheimpressionof
preservingbalanceinhiswork.

ItsnotthatImnewtosuchkindofscientificdebate.

TakethepiecebyJaredMcBridewiththerevealingtitle:HowUkrainesNewMemory
CommissarIsControllingtheNationsPast.AnditwasonlyafterreadingthepiecebyJeffrey
BurdsthatInotonlyfoundoutaboutmyso-calledfalsificationsorcensorship,butalso
learnedthatsomemajorfalsifyingoccursinamysterious898-pagebookthetitleofwhich
heunfortunatelyfailstomention.

IwassurprisedbythewordsofCanadianhistorianMarcoCarynnykabouthisproblemswith
accessingtheSBUarchivewhenIwasdirector.Perhaps,Cohenmisunderstoodhiswords
becausethereisaletterfromMarco(whoIhopewillforgivemeforbeingforcedinto
publishingourprivatecorrespondencefrom2010):Youknow,perhapsIdonotagreewith
yourevaluationofsomeaspectsofUkrainianhistory.ButIwillalwaysbegratefultoyoufor
thefactthatinthelastyearyougavemeaccesstothe(SecurityServiceofUkraine)SBU
archives.Andthiswasnotpreferentialtreatment.WhenIheadedtheSBUarchives,forthe
firsttimeeverpeoplewereensuredequalaccess.

StanislavSerhiyenko,aUkrainianhistorian,representstheangeredcolleaguesfromUkrainein
Cohenswork.Icouldnotrecallafamoushistorianwiththatname.Why?Iunderstoodafter
receivingaFacebookmessagefromthedirectoroftheSBUarchivesAndriyKohut.Stanislav
Serhiyenkoisaleft-wingstudentactivist,aregularcontributorthepro-Russianpublication
Gazeta2000,financedbytheFoundationnamedforthescandalousOlesBuzina.Kohutalso
saidthat,contrarytowhathetoldCohen,Serhiyenkonevercomplainedtothearchivestaff
aboutnothavingaccesstothearchives.

Whatisequallystrangeistheauthorstextisfullofmistakesanddistortions.Herearejusta
few:IbecamethedirectoroftheCenterforResearchoftheLiberationMovementin2002and
notin2006(thisisanimportantdetailbecauseitdemonstratestheauthor'snegligence,he
didn'tevencheckWikipedia)underPresidentViktorYushchenkostreetnameswerenot
renamedafterleadersoftheOrganizationofUkrainianNationalists(OUN)andUkrainian
InsurrectionArmy(UPA).Andonthoseoccasionstheywere,therewasneveranydirect
involvementfromthepresident.

Likewise,CohensclaimthatIdefendedthesoldiersoftheWaffenSSGaliciaDivisioncannot
besubstantiatedbyanyexamples.InsteadIwriteaboutthemasvictimsofwar,Ukrainians
mobilizedbyhostilepropagandatofightforsomeoneelse'spurpose.Finally,itwasnotthe
presidentwhoappointedmethedirectoroftheUkrainianInstituteofNationalMemory(and
notmyMemoryInstituteasCohenputsit),ratherthiswasdonebyagovernmentdecree.At
thetimeofmyappointment(March25,2014)PetroPoroshenkowasnotyetpresident.
Therefore,tosayheenlistedthesupportofnationalistforcesisridiculous.Moreover,Iamnot
amemberofanypoliticalparty.

Thedeepertheauthorgetsintohistory,themoreerrorsthereare.Witheasehestates
unconfirmedfigures:70-100,000Poleswere"killedbytheUPA".Thesewerethefigures
quotedinpoliticalstatementsbutthereisnoscientificstudybasedonsources,oratthevery
leastreliablemethodologyincalculatingthesenumbers.

Theoriginofthefigureof"35,000JewskilledbynationalistsinwesternUkraine"isalso
unclear.It'sthenumberyoucan'tfindintheworksofeventhosehistorianswhoarethe
heaviestcriticsofOUN.

Cohenisaseasewithhisuseofnumbers,justasheiswithhissources.

Thesupposed"order"byKlyachkyvskiyaboutthe"destructionofallPolesage16to60"was
deemedafake.

OneofCohen'sleadingargumentsisthatIam"whitewashing"Ukrainianhistorybyincluding
theUkrainianliberationmovementwithinUkraine'snationalhistoricalnarrativeandignoring
it'sinvolvementintheHolocaustandtheethniccleansingofPolesduringtheSecondWorld
War.

Hecallsthisa"revisionisthistory"whileIwoulddisagree.DuringtheSovietUnion,the
mentionofthenationalistswasautomaticallyassociatedwiththeNazis(eventhoughthetwo
werenotthesamething)andtheHolocaustwasalmostcompletelySovietized-theJews
werenotthevictimsoftheHolocaustbutrather"Sovietcitizens"were(asisstatedonthe
memorialtothevictimsofBabiYarinKyiv).InnowayamI,ortheInstituteofNational
Memory,falsifyingthe"narrativeoftheHolocaust",especiallywhenthatnarrativeisallbut
forgotteninSovietUkrainianhistoricaltexts.Ifanything,theInstitutehasworkedhardto
placetheHolocaust-anditsmemory-backintotheUkrainiannationalhistoricalnarrativeby
includingitinpublicdisplaysanddiscussions.

ThehistoryoftheUkrainianliberationmovementalsocannotbesimplifiedintoacoupleof
paragraphsthatindicateitscreationin1929andinvolvementinthewarin1941.

Cohensystematicallyignoresmorethan10yearsofhistorywheretheUkrainiannationwas
splitbetweentwolargercountries,devastatedbygenocide,thePacification,theGreatTerror,
repressionandinter-ethnicstrife.Yes,theOUNwasamilitantorganization-nohistorian
deniesthatfact.ButwhatCohenisdoingisdenyingtheimportanceoftheOUNtowestern
Ukrainianhistoryduringtheinterwarperiod-somethinghehimselfaccusesmeofdoingwith
thememoryofRedArmysoldiers.I,northeInstituteofNationalMemory,aredenyingthe
"heroismoftheRedArmyduringWorldWarII"-themanycommemorationsandremembrance
celebrationsthatareincludedintheMay8-9festivitiesthroughoutUkraineareaindicationof
this.RedArmysoldierssatside-by-sidelastyearwiththeveteransoftheUPAandneither
grouphadanyproblemwiththis.

CohenonlyhadtoglimpseattheYouTubefootageofthe2015RemembranceDayconcertin
Kyivtounderstandthis.WhatCohenhasaslightgriponistheproblemofUkrainianhistory-
easternUkrainianhistoryandwesternUkrainianhistorywereneveridenticalandonecannot
pleaseonegroupoveranother.IfUkrainianhistoriansdidwhatCohensuggested,than
westernUkrainianhistorywouldbeleftoutofthenationalhistoricalnarrative(whichis
consequently,whatoccurredintheSovietUnion).Therefore,whileheclaimsthatinLuhansk
andtheeastIam"ignoringhalfthepopulation",whatheissuggestingisalsoignoringthe
otherhalf.WhatI,andtheInstituteareworkinghardondoingisadvocatingforaunited
nationalhistoricalnarrativeinwhichallhistoricalactivitiesofallUkrainiansarementioned-
nationalist,communistandeventhoseoftheDiasporaUkrainianswhofoughtintheAllied
forcesonthebeachesofNormandy,inMonteCassinoandthePacificTheatre.

CohenfurthersimplifiesthehistoryofUkraineduringtheSecondWorldWarintoavery
"Soviet"viewpoint.Ukrainiansdidkillothernationalities,butalsokilledotherUkrainians
justthesameasothernationalitieskilledeachotherandUkrainiansinhorribleways.The
historyofUkraineduringtheSecondWorldWarcannotbeglimpsedinsuchasimpleandblack
andwhitepicture.

Forexample,theOUN-UPAdidnotcollaboratewiththeGermansortheSoviets.Therewere
individualpactsofunderstandingbetweenallthreebutitwasneversystematic.Recordseven
indicatethatRedArmysoldierswarnedUPAunitsaboutincomingNKVDtroopswhenthe
UkrainianFrontwaspushingwestwardthroughoutUkraine.

TheaccusationsthattheOUNandtheUPAcollaboratedisxenophobia,theirparticipationin
theHolocaustandethniccleansingischaracteristicofSoviethistoriographyandpropaganda,
andistothisdaysupportedbyanumberofresearchersintheWest(includingthosereferred
toinCohensarticlelikeHimka,CarynnykandBurds).Butthejournalistpresentshisviewsas
theonlycorrectversionofevents.Therefore,attemptstoopposetheirviews,basedonnewly
discovereddocumentsisdeplorable"revisionism".

ThesewordshaveaclearassociationforWesternreaderswithHolocaustdenial.Theyare
usedinbrandinghundredsofmodernUkrainianandforeignresearchersthatcharacterizethe
activitiesoftheUPAandtheOUNaspartoftheUkrainianLiberationMovement,amovement
whichfoughtagainstbothtotalitarianregimes-thecommunistsandtheNazis.

Furthermore,CoheninsiststhattheOUNtookanactiveparticipationinthe1941Jewish
pogrominLviv.TherearenoOUNdocumentstosuggestsuchanactiveparticipationofthe
Organizationduringthistime.Again,individualmembersoftheOUNdidtakepartbutthe
OrganizationwasmorefocusedonannouncingtheJune30,1941ActofRestoringUkrainian
independence.Also,whileitistruethatUkrainiansdidtakepartinthekillingofJewsin
UkraineduringtheHolocausttheexactnumberisstillunidentifiedandiscertainlynogreater
thanthenumberofothernationalitieswhoalsocollaboratedintheHolocaustwiththe
Germans.OUNmembersalsosavedhundredsofJewsfromGermanexecutioners-oneof
thembeingOlenaViter,aGreek-Catholicnun,OUNmemberandaRighteousAmongthe
Nations.

WhatCohencertaindoesunderstandistheimportanceofthe"consolidationofUkrainian
democracy"which"requiresthecountrytocometogripswiththedarkeraspectsofitspast"
butthatcanonlybedonewithUkrainiansunderstandallsidesoftheirnationalhistoryand
notjusttheone-sidedheavilySovietizedversionofUkrainianhistory.Ukrainiansneedto
cometotermswithoneofthemostcomplexhistoricalexperiences(andnightmares)that
occurredduringtheSecondWorldWarontheirterritory-anexperiencethatdifferedregionally
butalsolocallyandevenwithinfamilies.ThatisimportantachievementofUkraine's
historians.Nomatterwhattopictheywriteabout,theynowhavetheabilitytowriteaboutit
inafree,democraticandcriticalway(evenwiththeluxuryofhavingitopenlycriticized).

ThemostimportantconclusiondrawnbythearticlepublishedbyForeignPolicyisthat
historicalcensorshipandtherewritingofhistoryisintroducedbyrestrictingaccesstothe
archives.Anumberofresearchersexpressedsuchconcernspriortotheintroductionofthe
decommunizationlaw.Ayearhaspassedandtherehavebeennocasesofrestrictionsof
academicfreedomoraccess.Becausethelawdoesnotcontainthetoolstodoso.Incontrast,
thenumberofusersaccessingtheoldKGBarchiveshassignificantlyincreased,amongthem
havebeenresearchersfromoutsideUkraine(forexample,AmirWeiner,LynneViola,Anne
Applebaum).AtthesametimethenumberofUkrainiansaccessingthearchiveshasgrownby
almost50percent.

ThetransferofhistoricaldocumentsfromtheSecurityServices,theForeignIntelligence
Services,theMinistryofInterior,wouldnotonlyrelievethemoftheextraworkholdingthem,
butitalsoallowsforthedocumentstobeprocessedbyhistoriansandarchivists,insteadof
law-enforcementofficials.

Andfurthermore,thetransfer(whichbythewayisonlybeingpreparedforandhasnottaken
place,asCohenincorrectlywrites)isanimportantelementofthegeneraldemocratic
transformationofapost-totalitariansociety.

TheInternationalCouncilonArchivesrecommends:"Recordsproducedoraccumulatedby
formerrepressivebodiesmustbeplacedunderthecontrolofthenewdemocraticauthorities
attheearliestopportunityandtheseauthoritiesmustassesstheholdingsindetail.()The
securitybodiesmustensurethetransferofselectedfilesanddocumentseithertothe
nationalarchives,totheinstitutionsdealingwithcompensationorreparationforvictimsof
therepressionandpurgingofformerofficials,ortotheTruthCommissions."

Thiswaswhyspecialarchivallawswereadoptedlastyearwhichalreadyoperatein11post-
communistcountriesinEasternEurope(Poland,CzechRepublic,Slovakia,Hungaryand
Romaniaandetc.)

Theopeningofthecommunistsecretservicearchivesisthemainguaranteeagainstthestate
imposingonesingleviewofthepast,or,furthermore,oneoftheguaranteesofdemocratic
development.ThatiswhyUkrainechosetofollowtheexperienceofitsneighborsafterthe
Euromaidan.

OtherwiseweriskfacingwhatisalreadyhappeningeastwardofUkraine.TheclosedRussian
archives(whichwererecentlyputunderthedirectcontrolofRussianPresidentVladimirPutin)
becamethefoundationfortherehabilitationoftotalitarianismandareusedforthispurpose
today.

Butthisisanother,realstoryabouttherewritingofthepastandtheuseofarchives.Theone
thatfailedtoattractJoshCohensattention.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:JamieKirchick<jkirchick@foreignpolicyi.org>
Date:Mon,May9,2016at10:01AM
Subject:TheHolocaustwithoutJews[ED:ItstartedwiththeCCCP'sVersionofWWII]
To:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu

HowtheregressiveleftsnewcampaignagainstHillaryClintonrepresentsthecannibalizingofAmericanliberalism

Viewthisemailinyour
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TheHolocaustwithoutJews

AttemptstouniversalizethespecificsufferingofJewsintheShoahgohandinhandwitheffortstode-
legitimizetheJewishstate

ByJamesKirchick|May3,2016

OnThursday,IsraelwillmarkHolocaustRemembranceDay,YomHaShoah.Ashasbeenthecustomfor
oversixdecades,a2-minuteairraidsirenwillbeblaredacrosstheentirecountryandcitizensfromall
walksoflifewillinterrupttheirdailyroutinesforamomentofsolemnreflection.Jan.27ofthisyearalso
markedthedecadeanniversaryoftheUnitedNations-designatedInternationalHolocaustRemembrance
Day,whichmemberstatesareencouragedtocommemorate.ThoughanIsraeliinitiative,International
HolocaustRemembranceDayhasgraduallybeensubjectedtotheuniversalizingprescriptionsofthose
whowouldwaterdowntheparticularlyJewishaspectoftheNaziexterminationoftheJews.

TheevolutionoftwodifferentdaysofHolocaustcommemorationandthewaystheyincreasinglyrun
countertoeachotheraresymptomaticoftheseizureofJewishhistoryandsufferingforulteriorpurposes.
ThisvictimdisplacementappropriatesthemosttraumaticexperienceinJewishhistory,pointedlyerases
thespecificityoftheeventssupposedlybeingcommemorated,andthenharshlychidesJewsforinserting
theirownparticularisticconcernsintothediscussion.Atacertainpoint,thesephenomenabecomea
continuationofaspecificformofoppressionanderasureratheranantidotetohatred.

TocontinuereadingthisessayinTablet,pleaseclickhere.

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----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:hunter@
Date:Mon,May9,2016at10:08AM
Subject:REUTERS:RussiashowcasesSyriahardwareinRedSquaremilitaryparade
To:wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>

ED:KEYQUOTEFROMREUTERSITEM[LookingforYaltaII&beingcalledonitpickingonthePolesandUkes
fornotbuyingtheRussianversionofWWII]:

"Putin,inhisspeech,largelyconfinedhisremarkstotheimportanceofthewartimevictory.Buthealsospokeoftheneed
tofightglobalterrorismandtocooperatewithothernationstodothat.

"Terrorismhasbecomeaglobalthreat,"saidPutin."Wemustdefeatthisevil.AndRussiaisopentounitingeffortswith
othergovernments,isreadytoworkonthecreationofamodernnon-blocsystemofinternationalsecurity."

StatemediacriticizedgovernmentsinUkraineandPolandintherun-uptotheparadeforsystematicallydismantling
wartimemonumentsinhonorofSovietforces,accusingthemofdishonoringthetroopswholiberatedthemfromthe
Nazis.

Rulingpoliticiansinbothcountriesdisagree,sayingSoviettroopswereoccupiers.Themonumentsarebeingpulled
downaspartofade-communisationdrive,theysay.

VladimirNorosov,90,aSovietveteraninMoscowfortheparade,saidhewasangeredbysuchremarks.

"Wefoughttogether,myselfandmyPolishbrothers,"hetoldReuters."Howmanypeoplediedfightingtoliberatethat
country?Whattheyaredoingnowisdisgraceful."

RussiashowcasesSyriahardware

inRedSquaremilitaryparade

MOSCOW|BYANDREWOSBORNANDJACKSTUBBS

RussiarolledoutanairdefensemissilesystemofthekindusedtoprotectitsbaseinSyriaandsomeoftheRussianjetsflying
missionstherescreamedoverheadasitshowcaseditsmilitarywarmachineonMoscow'sRedSquareonMonday.

Thegrandparade,anannualfixturecommemoratingtheSovietUnion'svictoryovertheNazisinWorldWarTwo,tookplacein
brightsunshineasPresidentVladimirPutinlookedonfromatribunefilledwithSovietwarveterans,someofwhomworerowsof
campaignmedalsandclutchedredroses.

TheRussianleader,whoseforcesannexedUkraine'sCrimeain2014andarenowhelpingSyrianPresidentBasharal-Assad's
army,watchedasthousandsoftroopsmarchedacrossthecobbledsquaretothestrainsofmartialmusic.

Theauthorities,backedbystatemedia,usetheeventtoencouragepatriotism,reinforcenationalidentity,forgeopoliticalpoint
scoring,andtounderscoretheimportanceofhavingastrongmilitarytoprotectthecountry'sborders.

"It(thecommemoration)hasbecomeasymbolofsacredclosenessbetweenRussiaanditspeople,"Putintoldtheparade."Andin
suchunityandloyaltytothemotherlandliesourstrength,ourconfidence,andourdignity."

TheKremlinalsonowusestheeventtoshowhowamulti-billiondollarmodernizationprogramischangingthefaceoftheRussian
militarywithnewweaponsandhardware.

SomepoliticiansinformerSovietrepublicsorsatellitestatesregardtheparadeascrudesabre-rattlingbyaresurgentRussiathey
sayposesathreattoEurope'ssecurity.Russiadismissessuchallegationsasnonsense.

SYRIANHARDWARE

ColumnsoftanksfollowedthetroopsasdidtheadvancedS-400airdefensemissilesystem,whichisdeployedinSyriatoprotect
theRussianairbasethere.Russia'slatestYarsmobileintercontinentalnuclearmissilelauncherwasalsoonshow.

RELATEDVIDEO

Russiamarkswaranniversary

ScoresofmilitaryaircraftflewoverRedSquare,includingjetswhichemittedmulti-coloredsmoketotracethered,blueandwhite
colorsoftheRussianflaginthesky.

Putin,inhisspeech,largelyconfinedhisremarkstotheimportanceofthewartimevictory.Buthealsospokeoftheneedtofight
globalterrorismandtocooperatewithothernationstodothat.

"Terrorismhasbecomeaglobalthreat,"saidPutin."Wemustdefeatthisevil.AndRussiaisopentounitingeffortswithother
governments,isreadytoworkonthecreationofamodernnon-blocsystemofinternationalsecurity."

StatemediacriticizedgovernmentsinUkraineandPolandintherun-uptotheparadeforsystematicallydismantlingwartime
monumentsinhonorofSovietforces,accusingthemofdishonoringthetroopswholiberatedthemfromtheNazis.
Rulingpoliticiansinbothcountriesdisagree,sayingSoviettroopswereoccupiers.Themonumentsarebeingpulleddownaspartof
ade-communisationdrive,theysay.

VladimirNorosov,90,aSovietveteraninMoscowfortheparade,saidhewasangeredbysuchremarks.

"Wefoughttogether,myselfandmyPolishbrothers,"hetoldReuters."Howmanypeoplediedfightingtoliberatethatcountry?
Whattheyaredoingnowisdisgraceful."

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:MichaelAverko<michaelaverko@msn.com>
Date:Mon,May9,2016at2:55AM
Subject:Russian-UkrainianIntricacies[ED:PUTIN'SMOUTHPIECESPEAKSAGAIN.....GOESAFTERALEX
MOTYL]
To:

EurasiaReview-http://www.eurasiareview.com-http://www.eurasiareview.com/author/michael-averko/

Monday,May9,2016-http://www.eurasiareview.com/09052016-ongoing-russian-ukrainian-intricacies-analysis/

OngoingRussian-UkrainianIntricacies

byMichaelAverko

DiversityAmongRussiansandUkrainians

It'sdifficult(ifnotimpossible)foranessaytofullycoveralloftherelatedRussian-Ukrainiancomplexities.Hence,
articlesonthesubjectathandservetoencourageafollow-up.AlexanderClapp'slengthyApril25National
Interestarticle"HowtoJoinaUkrainianMilitia"hassomekeyomissions.

AmongthemisNadiyaSavchenko'sassociationwiththeAidargroup,whichClappdescribesastheleastreputableof
Ukrainiannationalistmilitias.WhencomparedtoClapp,someothersourcesaremorenegativeonthatmilitia.
UncriticallylaudedbytheObamaadministrationandsomeotherWesternofficialdom,SavchenkoreceivedWestern
attentionafterherincarcerationinRussia,whereshe'sservingacontroversialsentenceforcomplicityinthekillingof
twoRussianjournalistsineasternUkraine.(SavchenkoandAidararediscussedinmyStrategicCulture
FoundationpieceofthispastMarch17.)

SomeoftheUkrainiannationalistsopposetheEU-somethingthatClappdoesn'treallygetinto.Henotessome
sociallyconservativethinkingintheUkrainiannationalistmilitias,whichgreatlyexplainstheiroppositiontothe
comparativelymoreliberalmindedEU.

ConcerningtheUkrainiannationalistmilitias,issuecanbetakenwiththedegreeofpro-Polishsentimentexpressedin
Clapp'sarticle.OleksandrMuzychko,aslaincloseconfidantofformerRightSectorleaderDmytroYarosh,openly
statedanti-Polishviews,alongwithnegativecommentsaboutRussiansandJews.Lesserknownfolkshavesaidthe
sameaswell.Bynomeanscomplete,thePolishsupportforUkrainiannationalistsisn'twithoutsecondguessingin
Poland.ThisapprehensionhastodowiththecontemporaryUkrainiannationalistlaudingoftheOUN/UPA/Bandrea
legacy,whichviolentlyopposedPolandforaperiodpriortoandduringWWII.


Withsomevalidity,Clappsaysthatmuchofthepresentdaypro-StepanBanderasentimentisignorantlypremised
anddoesn'tinitselfalwaysreflectextremistthinking.Withoutbeingsubstantivelycontested,suchignoranceon
Banderaandtheextremists(amonghissupporters)canleadtomoreprovocativecommentsandaction.Priorto
Hitler'spoliticalascendancy,Germansenmassewereconsideredoneofthemoreculturedandeducatedofpeoples.

Inalternativemedia,therecentlyappointedheadofUkraine'sRada(parliament)AndriyParubiy,hasbeen
criticallyassessedforhisextremistviews.Incontrast,someothershighlighthischange(overthelastfewyears)to
adifferentpoliticalgroupingasamoderatingchange.Notwithstanding,it'sstillwithinreasontoregardParubiy
withsuspicion.

TherecentappointmentofVolodymyrGroysmanasUkrainianprimeminister,hasincludedareferencetohisJewish
origin.HispredecessorArseniyYatsenyukhassomeJewishbackground.JewsareamongtheprominentUkrainian
oligarchsinvolvedwiththeKievregime.Onecanfindvaryinginstancesofanti-JewishbehaviorinRussia,Ukraineand
theWest.Thelevelofthisbehaviorvaries.AstheSovietUnionwasbreakingupandthereafter,someJewish
organizationsandindividualshavelaudedthevastlyimprovedconditionforJewsinRussia.Likewise,Ukrainehas
receivedsomekudosonthatparticular.

Moresothaninthepast,moderndayhumanrightschallengesaremorelikelytoincludelessofananti-Jewish
message,onaccountoftheeffortsmadeinhighlightingandcondemninganti-Jewishbehavior,inconjunctionwith
intolerantforceshavingothertargetsfordisdain.Withthisinmind,thetrumpingofgoodconditionsforJewscan
servetocover-upotherhumanrightsabuses.(RetiredIsraeliGeneralEphraimSnehlaudsAzerbaijan'streatmentof
Jews,asabasisforgoodAzeri-Israelirelations.Meantime,Azerbaijanhasbeenthesubjectofnumeroushuman
rightsrelatedcriticism.)

Whendownplayingthelevelofanti-JewishmannerinKievregimecontrolledUkraine,theUkrainianPresidentPetro
PoroshenkofalselyclaimedthatJewsinCrimea(sinceitsreunificationwithRussia)arebarredfromattending
synagogueservices.ThelikesofEuromaidanPressandStopFakeprobablydidn'tmentionPoroshenko's
aforementionedfallacy.

TheacclaimedUSjournalistRobertParry,hasemphasizedthesuppressionofethnicRussiansinKievregimecontrolled
Ukraine.Thisistoobroadofacharacterizationwhichservesaspropagandafodderforpro-Kievregimeadvocates,
whoseektodiscreditthecounter-Euromaidan/pro-Russianposition.ThiscanbedonebynotingthatRussianis
spokeninKievregimecontrolledUkraine,withsomeethnicRussiansexpressingsupportfortheKievregimeover
Russia.

Foraccuracysake,Parryandsomeothersshouldemphasizethatthecounter-Euromaidan/pro-Russianstanceisheld
bysomeethnicUkrainians.TheEuromaidansuspectDonbassregionismostlypopulatedwithpeoplelistedasethnic
Ukrainian.Inadditiontopersonalaccounts,pollingindicatesthatmostofCrimea'sethnicUkrainianpopulationsupport
thatarea'sreunificationwithRussia.SinceCrimea'sreunificationwithRussia,asmallpercentageofCrimeanresidents
haveleftforUkraine.Duringthisperiod,agreaternumberhavemigratedfromUkrainetoRussiathanvice-versa.

UkrainianbornethnicUkrainiansVladimirMedinskyandValentinaMatviyenkoareappointedRussiangovernment
officials.There'sthematterofpoliticaldivisionamongfamilieswithformerUkrainianSovietSocialistRepublicroots,
asnotedinAlexeiPankin'sApril20RussiaInsiderarticle"Ukraine'sFM'sFather-In-LawIsRussianGeneralWhoHelped
ReuniteCrimeaWithRussia".

ClappexplainstheethnicRussianparticipationintheUkrainiannationalistmilitiasasanoppositiontotheRussian
government.TheseRussianscomeacrossasindividualswho'retheoppositeofconstructivelycriticalpro-Russian
advocates.Theirpositionsidestepsnumerousanti-RussianbiasesevidentinKievregimecontrolledUkraine(someof
whicharedescribedinmyJuly7,2014GlobalResearcharticle,inadditiontosomeofmycommentaryin
theStrategicCultureFoundationandEurasiaReviewvenues).


There'reinterestingtwistsandturnsregardingthefightersintheUkrainiannationalistmilitias.Asanexample,
BelarusianAzovmilitiafighterSergeiKorotkikh,oncebelongedtoapartythatsoughttorestoretheRussian
Empire.Severalsourceshavedescribedhimasaneo-Nazi.

IrespectfullyquestionClapp'sclaimthatapproximatelyhalfoftheAidarmilitiaareethnicRussians.AnearlierBBC
piecenotesaChechen(notethnicRussian)presenceinthatmilitia.ClappquotesAidarfightersinvokingthenameof
Allah.CouldClappbelumpingtogetherChechenRussiannationalswithethnicRussians?OnthesubjectofChechens
fightinginUkraine,thereferencedBBCpieceandsomeothersourcessaythatthisethnicgrouphasbeenmore
evidentonthecounter-Euromaidan/pro-RussianleaningDonbassrebelsidethantheKievregime's.

ThePredominatingNorthAmericanAcademia/MediaSlant

Howhistoryistaughtcangreatlyinfluencesomepeople,whodon'tactivelyseekotherperspectivesinfull.It'squite
ironicwhenit'speriodicallysaidthatRussiansinRussiaaremisledbecausethey'reregularlysubjectedtoone-sided
depictions.IntheUS,I'verunintonumerousovertheageoftwentyUkrainianbornethnicUkrainians,ethnic
Russians,Jewsandanymixofthethree(aswellassomeothers),who'vespentagooddealoftimeintheWest.
Theyincludeindividualswhoseviewsgenerallycoincidewithmine.Thisgroupingbelievethatpost-SovietUkraine
(especiallyaftertheso-called"OrangeRevolution"inlate2004)hasseenanincreasedanti-Russianhistoricalslant,
thathasnurturedagreateracceptanceoffactuallychallengedviews.

Unlikethebullypulpitapproach,manyoftheseindividuals(includingyourstruly)directlyaddressdisagreeablepoints.
Anumberofthemnotethelackoftoleranceamongthoseinhighprofilepositionswhodisagreewiththemandcando
sorathercrudely.Insteadoffeelingfreetocomfortablyexpressthemselvesintheopen,someinthecounter-
Euromaidan/pro-Russiangroupingprefertonotriskbeinglabeleda"Kremlintroll",
aftermakingreasonableobservations,withoutcomingclosetousingsuchcharacterizationsas"troll".

Attimes,anacademicstandingcanhavetheappearanceasanunofficiallicensetolaunchfaultydiatribes.Howcan
thisaspectinfluencetheteachingenvironment?Insomeacademicsettings(notall),astudent(prospectiveor
otherwise)infieldslikehistory,politicalstudiesandjournalism,mightunderstandablybeinclinedtoseethatakindof
selfcensorshipmightbeneededtobetteradvance.Unlikethehardsciencesofpreciseformulas,there'smorewiggle
roomintheliberalartstoshortchangeavalidperspectivethat'sunpopularwiththepredominatingview.

InNorthAmerica,theacademicandnon-academiclikesofAlexanderMotylofRutgersUniversityandSerhiiPlokhiiof
HarvardUniversity,aremorelikelytogetmassmediaactionoverotherswithadifferentoveralltake.I'mhard
pressedtorecallanyoneatRutgersand/orHarvardwho'veamassmediaopinionpieceindirectoppositiontoMotyl
andPlokhii.

Plokhiiwasn'tchallengedwhenhemadesome(putmildly)questionablecommentsinafeaturedQ&AwithStar
journalistOliviaWardthispastFebruary29.ContrarytoPlokhii,inthelead-uptoUkrainianPresidentViktor
Yanukovych'souster,publicopinionpollsinUkraineregularlyshowedadifferenceofwithin10%andinsomeinstances
avirtualtie,orslightsupportfavoringeithertheEUortheRussianinvolvedEurasianEconomicUnion.It'sfaultyto
judgetheprevailingmoodinUkraineonwhichgroupmustersthelargeststreetdemonstrationinKiev.

WardandPlokhiiengageinrevisionismwhensuggestingthatRussiawastheprimaryinstigatoroftensioninUkraine.
TheKremlinandthethenUkrainiangovernmentweren'tagainstthreeway(Russia,UkraineandEU)talksonhowto
bestdevelopUkraine.Onthisscore,theWestplayedmoreofthezerosumgame.

PlokhiicanbelegitimatelysecondguessedforsayingthattheCossacks(inwhat'snowmoderndayUkraine)had
unitedunderIvanMazepa,whenhechosetoopposeRussia.NumeroushistoricalaccountsnoteMazepa'sdownfall
beingpartlyattributedtothelackofsupporthereceived(fromCossacksandothers)intheareaheoversaw,after
hischangedallegiancefromRussiatoSwedenandPoland.

Inseveralinstances,MotylhasbeenfeaturedinNewsweekandTheWallStreetJournal.Hehasablogat
avenuedominatedbyaneocontoneolibleaningslant,favoringanti-Russianopinionsoverpro-Russianthoughts.

Inarecentblogpost,MotylhighlightsVladimirZhirinovsky'sstatureasasignofafascistRussia.Motylisreluctant
tocategorizepost-SovietUkraineasfascist,despiteitsissuingofstampshonoringStepanBandera,theelevationof
ParubiyasRadaheadandthelevelofpost-Yanukovychperiodviolence,inKievregimecontrolledUkraineagainst
counter-Euromaidanindividuals.

PresentdayRussiadoesn'tformallyhonorAndreyVlasov,whoinWWII,ledanarmyofcapturedRussiansoldiersina
nominalalliancewithNaziGermany.Vlasov'strackrecordisn'tasnegativeaswhathasbeenassociatedwith
Bandera.(ThetenuousstateofrelationsbetweenVlasovandBanderaisanotherintricatefacettotheRussian-
Ukrainianrelationship.IrecallhistorianJohnArmstrongandsomeothersnotingthatupto30%-40%ofVlasov's
personnelwereethnicUkrainians.Bandera'sforcesweregreatlycomprisedofGalicianUkrainians.Therewerealsothe
manyRussiansandUkrainianswhofoughtontheSovietside.)

AsforZhirinovsky,asubstantialenoughnumberseemtoviewhimasacrudeshtikcomicwithlimitedpolitical
influence.In2002,hedrewanenthusiasticaudienceinBrooklyn'sBrightonBeach.ABelarusian-JewishMD
acquaintancewhoisZionistinoutlookandsensitivetoanti-Jewishbigotry,toldmethathefindsZhirinovsky
entertainingandthathe'dpaytoseehimspeaklive.(Zhirinovsky'sfatherwasJewish.)Igatherfromtheseinstances
thatZhirinovskyisn'tforthepoliticallycorrect,whilehehasfoundanicheasanacceptableenoughpersonality,fora
noticeablenumberofpeoplewhoaren'tnecessarilyextreme.Atlastnotice,Zhirinovskyisn'tinvolvedwithanymilitias
harboringneo-Naziviews.

Theseobservationsaremadewithoutmeaningtogivehimacompletepass.Thoseopposedtoanti-Russian
propagandaatornearthedegreeofbigotryaren'tdoingtheircauserightwithinconsistency.

Motyl'sinfatuationwiththeimageofRussiaandfascismisindicatedinanotherblogpostofhis,withareferenceto
BenitoMussoliniandVladimirPutin.Putinhasanappointedinnercircleandmakesdecisionsastheheadofstate.
WhatprivatelygoesonbetweenPutinandhiscabinetisn'tsowellknown.ArecentfeatureinTheAtlanticreveals
thatObamahasmadedecisionsagainsthisadvisers.DoesthatmakeObamaaversionofMussolini?Motyl'sreference
ofPutinwithMussoliniisoffthemark.MuchunliketheItaliandictator,Putinhasopenlyexchangedviewswithpeople
whodisagreewithhimanddoesn'tbitewhathecan'tchew.

WitnesstheSyrianandUkrainianscenarios.TheKremlinassistedSyriangovernmentwasontheoffensivebefore
RussiacommittedtoaSyrianCivilWarceasefireandareducedRussiamilitarypresenceinSyria.Likewise,thepro-
RussianrebelsineasternUkrainelookedliketheycould'vegainedmoreterritory,beforeRussiacommitteditselftothe
MinskIIceasefireagreement.Libya,EthiopiaandGreeceposednothreattoItaly.AstheypertaintoRussia,the
morerecentSyrianandUkrainiansituationsaremuchdifferent.

TheRussianmilitarysupporttotheSyriangovernmentincludesthematterofaworseoptionthatcanblowover
beyondSyria.Specifically,SyriansituatedterroristshavingRussiaasoneoftheirmaintargets,aswellaspriorUS
actionsinIraqandSyria,whichhaveproducedsomenegativeresults.

Crimeaconcernsapro-RussianmajorityopposedtotheoverthrowofademocraticallyelectedUkrainianpresident,
followedbyaseriesofincreasedanti-Russianadvocacy.TheDonbasssituationinvolvesmanyinthatterritorywith
closetiestoRussia,whoaren'tcomfortablewiththepost-YanukovychKievbasedrule.

IncomparisontoUkraine,thereasonableperceptionofamoresecureandeconomicallybetteroffRussiaisamain
elementofthecounter-Euromaidan/pro-Russianstance.Whilenotnecessarilybeinganti-Western,thisperspective
seeslimitsinwhattheWestiswillingtoofferUkraine.

TheCounterPerspectiveattheIvyLeagueLevel

FromtheFortRussblog,IwasinformedofalectureatBrownUniversitybyStanislavByshokoftheCIS-Europe
MonitoringOrganization.Theredoesn'tappeartobeanonlinevideoofthisevent.Myresponsetohisaddress(as
postedbyFortRuss)includesomeofwhatIsaidinmyStrategicCultureFoundationpieceofthispastSeptember
29.

Byshokcould'vementionedthat"KievanRus"isalatterdayacademiccharacterizationusedtodescribe"Rus"and
thataNovgorodprince,Oleg,movedhismainlocaletoKiev,ataboutthetimethatmanybegintheperiodknownas
"KievanRus".In1862,Russiaformallyacknowledgedits1,000yearexistencebasedoutofNovgorod.

KievwastobecometheleadingRuscity.BeforetheMongolsubjugationofRus,Kievwasshowingadecreasein
influence.Backthen,thereweresignsthatterritoryincontemporarynorthwesternRussiawouldbecometheleading
Rusbase.ThislandwasgeographicallymoreaccessibletotheleadingWesternpowers.WithinRus,therewere
effortstodevelopthatterritory.

WhenhistoricallyhypingRussian-Ukrainiandifferences,the"svidomites"highlightAndreyBogolyubsky'sattackonKiev
in1169.(SvidomiteisaderisivelyusedtermtodescribeUkrainiannationalistswithananti-Russianlean.)
Bogolyubsky'sactionshouldbearguablyseenmoreassomethingakintoWilliamSherman'sattackonAtlantainthe
formofacivilwar,thanaforeignpowerattackingadifferententity.CreditedwithdevelopingSuzdal(nearMosocw),
BogolyubskyhadadynasticclaimtotheKievthrone,withhisgrandfatherbeingafamousKievcrownprince.

Thepro-Russiancommunityinpost-SovietUkrainewaswillingtoliveinaseparateUkrainianstate.Thiswillingness
wascompromisedwiththeactiontakenintheoverthrowofYanukovychandtheelevatedinfluenceofanti-Russian
leaningproponents.

IremainsomewhatmoreupbeatthansomeothersonthefutureofRussian-Ukrainianrelations.Someoncebitterrival
nationshaveputtheirpastdifferencesaside.ByshoksuggeststhattheimportanceofRussiacanleadtoalessened
Westernenthusiasmforpro-KievregimecontrolledUkraine.Anotherfactorcanincludeagrowingrealizationthatthe
Kievregimehasn'tbeensovirtuous.Inoneofhismorerealistmoments,USPresidentBarackObamasaid(in
hisexchangewithJeffreyGoldberginTheAtlantic)thatUkrainemeansmoretoRussiathanitdoestheWest.

MichaelAverkoisaNewYorkbasedindependentforeignpolicyanalystandmediacritic.Thisarticleisaclosely
relatedversionofthetwopartfeature,whichappearedattheStrategicCultureFoundation'swebsiteonMay
7and8.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:LubomyrLuciuk<lluciuk@cogeco.ca>
Date:2016-05-0910:21GMT-04:00
Subject:anti-SemiticandUkrainophobicimagecirculatedbytheRussians(captionreads:"Ukrainian
Nationalists")
To:

Zhydobanderovtsy.jpg
 From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 05/09/201608:50:09AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:[HISTORYWARSINFULLSWING]KP:VolodymyrViatrovych:RealandfictionalhistoryinUkraine'sarchives(responsetoJOSH
Subject:
C)......JamesKbacksVV:SovietorWestHardLeftVersionofWWIIhas'HolocaustWithouttheJews.....RUVICTORYDAY2016[OHBO
Attachments: Zhydobanderovtsy.jpg

From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Monday,May09,20168:19AM
To:RomaHadzewyczrl
Subject:[HISTORYWARSINFULLSWING]KP:VolodymyrViatrovych:RealandfictionalhistoryinUkraine'sarchives(responsetoJOSH
C)......JamesKbacksVV:SovietorWestHardLeftVersionofWWIIhas'HolocaustWithouttheJews.....RUVICTORYDAY2016[OH
BOY...

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:larysazariczniak<cymlala@hotmail.com>
Date:Mon,May9,2016at5:38AM
Subject:Viatrovych'sresponse
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

HiWaz,

Here'sViatrovych'sfullresponsetoCohen'sarticleinKP:http://www.kyivpost.com/article/opinion/op-ed/volodymyr-viatrovych-
real-and-fictional-history-in-ukraines-archives-413382.html

TwoQuotesfromVolodymyrV'sResponsetoJoshC:

[1]OneofCohen'sleadingargumentsisthatIam"whitewashing"UkrainianhistorybyincludingtheUkrainian
liberationmovementwithinUkraine'snationalhistoricalnarrativeandignoringit'sinvolvementintheHolocaustandthe
ethniccleansingofPolesduringtheSecondWorldWar.

Hecallsthisa"revisionisthistory"whileIwoulddisagree.DuringtheSovietUnion,thementionofthenationalists
wasautomaticallyassociatedwiththeNazis(eventhoughthetwowerenotthesamething)andtheHolocaustwas
almostcompletelySovietized-theJewswerenotthevictimsoftheHolocaustbutrather"Sovietcitizens"were(asis
statedonthememorialtothevictimsofBabiYarinKyiv).InnowayamI,ortheInstituteofNationalMemory,
falsifyingthe"narrativeoftheHolocaust",especiallywhenthatnarrativeisallbutforgotteninSovietUkrainian
historicaltexts.Ifanything,theInstitutehasworkedhardtoplacetheHolocaust-anditsmemory-backintothe
Ukrainiannationalhistoricalnarrativebyincludingitinpublicdisplaysanddiscussions.

[SEEJAMESK(BELOW)makeVV'spointforhimin'HolocaustwithouttheJews'][AlsonotewhatLubomyrL
sent:"....anti-SemiticandUkrainophobicimagecirculatedbytheRussians(captionreads:"Ukrainian
Nationalists")"]

[2]Cohensystematicallyignoresmorethan10yearsofhistorywheretheUkrainiannationwassplitbetweentwo
largercountries,devastatedbygenocide,thePacification,theGreatTerror,repressionandinter-ethnicstrife.
Yes,theOUNwasamilitantorganization-nohistoriandeniesthatfact.ButwhatCohenisdoingisdenyingthe
importanceoftheOUNtowesternUkrainianhistoryduringtheinterwarperiod-somethinghehimselfaccuses
meofdoingwiththememoryofRedArmysoldiers.I,northeInstituteofNationalMemory,aredenyingthe
"heroismoftheRedArmyduringWorldWarII"-themanycommemorationsandremembrancecelebrations
thatareincludedintheMay8-9festivitiesthroughoutUkraineareaindicationofthis.RedArmysoldierssat
side-by-sidelastyearwiththeveteransoftheUPAandneithergrouphadanyproblemwiththis.

[SEEREUTERSpieceonRUVictoryDayinMoscow2016ANDPutinUSMouthpieceMikeAverko's
scribblesonRU-UA-WWII(ALSOBELOW)]

VolodymyrViatrovych:RealandfictionalhistoryinUkraine'sarchives

VolodymyrViatrovychisthedirectoroftheUkrainianInstituteofNationalMemory.

Editor'sNote:Thefollowingisanop-edbyVolodymyrViatrovych,aUkrainianhistorian
researchingtheUkrainianindependencemovementandthedirectoroftheUkrainianInstitute
ofNationalRemembrancesinceMarch25,2014.ItisaresponsetoastorybyJoshCohenin
ForeignPolicy,headlined"ThehistorianwhitewashingUkraine'spast."Thewebsiteforthe
InstituteofNationalRemembranceishere.

Ioftentalkwithjournalistsfromdifferentcountries,publicationsandwithdifferentviews.
Themoreprofessionalthejournalist,thelesstheyshowtheirownpreferencesandtryto
listenandreflecttheopinionofthepersontheyaretalkingwith.Manyofwhomhave
questionsthatprovokeadiscussion.ButthequestionsposedbyjournalistJoshCohenare
certainlynotjournalisticbutratherthoseofaprosecutor.

AfterreadingseverallinesofhisinitialemailrequestformycommentsonFeb.25,Ialready
understood:heistalkingtomeasifIwastheaccused.Heasked:Howwouldyourespondto
Westernhistorians'allegationsthatyouoryourstaffhaveawillingnesstoignoreoreven
falsifyhistoricaldocuments?Andotherquestionsofthatnature.Adheringtodemocratic
standards,Cohengavemetheopportunitytojustifymyself:Wewouldwelcomeany
statementyouwouldliketomakeinresponsetotheseallegationssothattheymaybe
includedinthearticleForeignPolicyintendstopublishAsweareclosetopublication,I
wouldgreatappreciateareplyinthenexttwodays.

Despitetheangrytoneandtheaccusationsofitsintent(evidenceofactionswerenotfound
becausehehadnone)Ihaveprepareddetailedanswers,fragmentsofwhichtheyprinted.Not
inordertopresentmyheavilyeditedpointofview,butinordertocreatetheimpressionof
preservingbalanceinhiswork.

ItsnotthatImnewtosuchkindofscientificdebate.

TakethepiecebyJaredMcBridewiththerevealingtitle:HowUkrainesNewMemory
CommissarIsControllingtheNationsPast.AnditwasonlyafterreadingthepiecebyJeffrey
BurdsthatInotonlyfoundoutaboutmyso-calledfalsificationsorcensorship,butalso
learnedthatsomemajorfalsifyingoccursinamysterious898-pagebookthetitleofwhich
heunfortunatelyfailstomention.

IwassurprisedbythewordsofCanadianhistorianMarcoCarynnykabouthisproblemswith
accessingtheSBUarchivewhenIwasdirector.Perhaps,Cohenmisunderstoodhiswords
becausethereisaletterfromMarco(whoIhopewillforgivemeforbeingforcedinto
publishingourprivatecorrespondencefrom2010):Youknow,perhapsIdonotagreewith
yourevaluationofsomeaspectsofUkrainianhistory.ButIwillalwaysbegratefultoyoufor
thefactthatinthelastyearyougavemeaccesstothe(SecurityServiceofUkraine)SBU
archives.Andthiswasnotpreferentialtreatment.WhenIheadedtheSBUarchives,forthe
firsttimeeverpeoplewereensuredequalaccess.

StanislavSerhiyenko,aUkrainianhistorian,representstheangeredcolleaguesfromUkrainein
Cohenswork.Icouldnotrecallafamoushistorianwiththatname.Why?Iunderstoodafter
receivingaFacebookmessagefromthedirectoroftheSBUarchivesAndriyKohut.Stanislav
Serhiyenkoisaleft-wingstudentactivist,aregularcontributorthepro-Russianpublication
Gazeta2000,financedbytheFoundationnamedforthescandalousOlesBuzina.Kohutalso
saidthat,contrarytowhathetoldCohen,Serhiyenkonevercomplainedtothearchivestaff
aboutnothavingaccesstothearchives.

Whatisequallystrangeistheauthorstextisfullofmistakesanddistortions.Herearejusta
few:IbecamethedirectoroftheCenterforResearchoftheLiberationMovementin2002and
notin2006(thisisanimportantdetailbecauseitdemonstratestheauthor'snegligence,he
didn'tevencheckWikipedia)underPresidentViktorYushchenkostreetnameswerenot
renamedafterleadersoftheOrganizationofUkrainianNationalists(OUN)andUkrainian
InsurrectionArmy(UPA).Andonthoseoccasionstheywere,therewasneveranydirect
involvementfromthepresident.

Likewise,CohensclaimthatIdefendedthesoldiersoftheWaffenSSGaliciaDivisioncannot
besubstantiatedbyanyexamples.InsteadIwriteaboutthemasvictimsofwar,Ukrainians
mobilizedbyhostilepropagandatofightforsomeoneelse'spurpose.Finally,itwasnotthe
presidentwhoappointedmethedirectoroftheUkrainianInstituteofNationalMemory(and
notmyMemoryInstituteasCohenputsit),ratherthiswasdonebyagovernmentdecree.At
thetimeofmyappointment(March25,2014)PetroPoroshenkowasnotyetpresident.
Therefore,tosayheenlistedthesupportofnationalistforcesisridiculous.Moreover,Iamnot
amemberofanypoliticalparty.

Thedeepertheauthorgetsintohistory,themoreerrorsthereare.Witheasehestates
unconfirmedfigures:70-100,000Poleswere"killedbytheUPA".Thesewerethefigures
quotedinpoliticalstatementsbutthereisnoscientificstudybasedonsources,oratthevery
leastreliablemethodologyincalculatingthesenumbers.

Theoriginofthefigureof"35,000JewskilledbynationalistsinwesternUkraine"isalso
unclear.It'sthenumberyoucan'tfindintheworksofeventhosehistorianswhoarethe
heaviestcriticsofOUN.

Cohenisaseasewithhisuseofnumbers,justasheiswithhissources.

Thesupposed"order"byKlyachkyvskiyaboutthe"destructionofallPolesage16to60"was
deemedafake.

OneofCohen'sleadingargumentsisthatIam"whitewashing"Ukrainianhistorybyincluding
theUkrainianliberationmovementwithinUkraine'snationalhistoricalnarrativeandignoring
it'sinvolvementintheHolocaustandtheethniccleansingofPolesduringtheSecondWorld
War.

Hecallsthisa"revisionisthistory"whileIwoulddisagree.DuringtheSovietUnion,the
mentionofthenationalistswasautomaticallyassociatedwiththeNazis(eventhoughthetwo
werenotthesamething)andtheHolocaustwasalmostcompletelySovietized-theJews
werenotthevictimsoftheHolocaustbutrather"Sovietcitizens"were(asisstatedonthe
memorialtothevictimsofBabiYarinKyiv).InnowayamI,ortheInstituteofNational
Memory,falsifyingthe"narrativeoftheHolocaust",especiallywhenthatnarrativeisallbut
forgotteninSovietUkrainianhistoricaltexts.Ifanything,theInstitutehasworkedhardto
placetheHolocaust-anditsmemory-backintotheUkrainiannationalhistoricalnarrativeby
includingitinpublicdisplaysanddiscussions.

ThehistoryoftheUkrainianliberationmovementalsocannotbesimplifiedintoacoupleof
paragraphsthatindicateitscreationin1929andinvolvementinthewarin1941.

Cohensystematicallyignoresmorethan10yearsofhistorywheretheUkrainiannationwas
splitbetweentwolargercountries,devastatedbygenocide,thePacification,theGreatTerror,
repressionandinter-ethnicstrife.Yes,theOUNwasamilitantorganization-nohistorian
deniesthatfact.ButwhatCohenisdoingisdenyingtheimportanceoftheOUNtowestern
Ukrainianhistoryduringtheinterwarperiod-somethinghehimselfaccusesmeofdoingwith
thememoryofRedArmysoldiers.I,northeInstituteofNationalMemory,aredenyingthe
"heroismoftheRedArmyduringWorldWarII"-themanycommemorationsandremembrance
celebrationsthatareincludedintheMay8-9festivitiesthroughoutUkraineareaindicationof
this.RedArmysoldierssatside-by-sidelastyearwiththeveteransoftheUPAandneither
grouphadanyproblemwiththis.

CohenonlyhadtoglimpseattheYouTubefootageofthe2015RemembranceDayconcertin
Kyivtounderstandthis.WhatCohenhasaslightgriponistheproblemofUkrainianhistory-
easternUkrainianhistoryandwesternUkrainianhistorywereneveridenticalandonecannot
pleaseonegroupoveranother.IfUkrainianhistoriansdidwhatCohensuggested,than
westernUkrainianhistorywouldbeleftoutofthenationalhistoricalnarrative(whichis
consequently,whatoccurredintheSovietUnion).Therefore,whileheclaimsthatinLuhansk
andtheeastIam"ignoringhalfthepopulation",whatheissuggestingisalsoignoringthe
otherhalf.WhatI,andtheInstituteareworkinghardondoingisadvocatingforaunited
nationalhistoricalnarrativeinwhichallhistoricalactivitiesofallUkrainiansarementioned-
nationalist,communistandeventhoseoftheDiasporaUkrainianswhofoughtintheAllied
forcesonthebeachesofNormandy,inMonteCassinoandthePacificTheatre.

CohenfurthersimplifiesthehistoryofUkraineduringtheSecondWorldWarintoavery
"Soviet"viewpoint.Ukrainiansdidkillothernationalities,butalsokilledotherUkrainians
justthesameasothernationalitieskilledeachotherandUkrainiansinhorribleways.The
historyofUkraineduringtheSecondWorldWarcannotbeglimpsedinsuchasimpleandblack
andwhitepicture.

Forexample,theOUN-UPAdidnotcollaboratewiththeGermansortheSoviets.Therewere
individualpactsofunderstandingbetweenallthreebutitwasneversystematic.Recordseven
indicatethatRedArmysoldierswarnedUPAunitsaboutincomingNKVDtroopswhenthe
UkrainianFrontwaspushingwestwardthroughoutUkraine.

TheaccusationsthattheOUNandtheUPAcollaboratedisxenophobia,theirparticipationin
theHolocaustandethniccleansingischaracteristicofSoviethistoriographyandpropaganda,
andistothisdaysupportedbyanumberofresearchersintheWest(includingthosereferred
toinCohensarticlelikeHimka,CarynnykandBurds).Butthejournalistpresentshisviewsas
theonlycorrectversionofevents.Therefore,attemptstoopposetheirviews,basedonnewly
discovereddocumentsisdeplorable"revisionism".

ThesewordshaveaclearassociationforWesternreaderswithHolocaustdenial.Theyare
usedinbrandinghundredsofmodernUkrainianandforeignresearchersthatcharacterizethe
activitiesoftheUPAandtheOUNaspartoftheUkrainianLiberationMovement,amovement
whichfoughtagainstbothtotalitarianregimes-thecommunistsandtheNazis.

Furthermore,CoheninsiststhattheOUNtookanactiveparticipationinthe1941Jewish
pogrominLviv.TherearenoOUNdocumentstosuggestsuchanactiveparticipationofthe
Organizationduringthistime.Again,individualmembersoftheOUNdidtakepartbutthe
OrganizationwasmorefocusedonannouncingtheJune30,1941ActofRestoringUkrainian
independence.Also,whileitistruethatUkrainiansdidtakepartinthekillingofJewsin
UkraineduringtheHolocausttheexactnumberisstillunidentifiedandiscertainlynogreater
thanthenumberofothernationalitieswhoalsocollaboratedintheHolocaustwiththe
Germans.OUNmembersalsosavedhundredsofJewsfromGermanexecutioners-oneof
thembeingOlenaViter,aGreek-Catholicnun,OUNmemberandaRighteousAmongthe
Nations.

WhatCohencertaindoesunderstandistheimportanceofthe"consolidationofUkrainian
democracy"which"requiresthecountrytocometogripswiththedarkeraspectsofitspast"
butthatcanonlybedonewithUkrainiansunderstandallsidesoftheirnationalhistoryand
notjusttheone-sidedheavilySovietizedversionofUkrainianhistory.Ukrainiansneedto
cometotermswithoneofthemostcomplexhistoricalexperiences(andnightmares)that
occurredduringtheSecondWorldWarontheirterritory-anexperiencethatdifferedregionally
butalsolocallyandevenwithinfamilies.ThatisimportantachievementofUkraine's
historians.Nomatterwhattopictheywriteabout,theynowhavetheabilitytowriteaboutit
inafree,democraticandcriticalway(evenwiththeluxuryofhavingitopenlycriticized).

ThemostimportantconclusiondrawnbythearticlepublishedbyForeignPolicyisthat
historicalcensorshipandtherewritingofhistoryisintroducedbyrestrictingaccesstothe
archives.Anumberofresearchersexpressedsuchconcernspriortotheintroductionofthe
decommunizationlaw.Ayearhaspassedandtherehavebeennocasesofrestrictionsof
academicfreedomoraccess.Becausethelawdoesnotcontainthetoolstodoso.Incontrast,
thenumberofusersaccessingtheoldKGBarchiveshassignificantlyincreased,amongthem
havebeenresearchersfromoutsideUkraine(forexample,AmirWeiner,LynneViola,Anne
Applebaum).AtthesametimethenumberofUkrainiansaccessingthearchiveshasgrownby
almost50percent.

ThetransferofhistoricaldocumentsfromtheSecurityServices,theForeignIntelligence
Services,theMinistryofInterior,wouldnotonlyrelievethemoftheextraworkholdingthem,
butitalsoallowsforthedocumentstobeprocessedbyhistoriansandarchivists,insteadof
law-enforcementofficials.

Andfurthermore,thetransfer(whichbythewayisonlybeingpreparedforandhasnottaken
place,asCohenincorrectlywrites)isanimportantelementofthegeneraldemocratic
transformationofapost-totalitariansociety.

TheInternationalCouncilonArchivesrecommends:"Recordsproducedoraccumulatedby
formerrepressivebodiesmustbeplacedunderthecontrolofthenewdemocraticauthorities
attheearliestopportunityandtheseauthoritiesmustassesstheholdingsindetail.()The
securitybodiesmustensurethetransferofselectedfilesanddocumentseithertothe
nationalarchives,totheinstitutionsdealingwithcompensationorreparationforvictimsof
therepressionandpurgingofformerofficials,ortotheTruthCommissions."

Thiswaswhyspecialarchivallawswereadoptedlastyearwhichalreadyoperatein11post-
communistcountriesinEasternEurope(Poland,CzechRepublic,Slovakia,Hungaryand
Romaniaandetc.)

Theopeningofthecommunistsecretservicearchivesisthemainguaranteeagainstthestate
imposingonesingleviewofthepast,or,furthermore,oneoftheguaranteesofdemocratic
development.ThatiswhyUkrainechosetofollowtheexperienceofitsneighborsafterthe
Euromaidan.

OtherwiseweriskfacingwhatisalreadyhappeningeastwardofUkraine.TheclosedRussian
archives(whichwererecentlyputunderthedirectcontrolofRussianPresidentVladimirPutin)
becamethefoundationfortherehabilitationoftotalitarianismandareusedforthispurpose
today.

Butthisisanother,realstoryabouttherewritingofthepastandtheuseofarchives.Theone
thatfailedtoattractJoshCohensattention.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:JamieKirchick<jkirchick@foreignpolicyi.org>
Date:Mon,May9,2016at10:01AM
Subject:TheHolocaustwithoutJews[ED:ItstartedwiththeCCCP'sVersionofWWII]
To:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu

HowtheregressiveleftsnewcampaignagainstHillaryClintonrepresentsthecannibalizingofAmericanliberalism

Viewthisemailinyour
browser

TheHolocaustwithoutJews

AttemptstouniversalizethespecificsufferingofJewsintheShoahgohandinhandwitheffortstode-
legitimizetheJewishstate

ByJamesKirchick|May3,2016

OnThursday,IsraelwillmarkHolocaustRemembranceDay,YomHaShoah.Ashasbeenthecustomfor
oversixdecades,a2-minuteairraidsirenwillbeblaredacrosstheentirecountryandcitizensfromall
walksoflifewillinterrupttheirdailyroutinesforamomentofsolemnreflection.Jan.27ofthisyearalso
markedthedecadeanniversaryoftheUnitedNations-designatedInternationalHolocaustRemembrance
Day,whichmemberstatesareencouragedtocommemorate.ThoughanIsraeliinitiative,International
HolocaustRemembranceDayhasgraduallybeensubjectedtotheuniversalizingprescriptionsofthose
whowouldwaterdowntheparticularlyJewishaspectoftheNaziexterminationoftheJews.

TheevolutionoftwodifferentdaysofHolocaustcommemorationandthewaystheyincreasinglyrun
countertoeachotheraresymptomaticoftheseizureofJewishhistoryandsufferingforulteriorpurposes.
ThisvictimdisplacementappropriatesthemosttraumaticexperienceinJewishhistory,pointedlyerases
thespecificityoftheeventssupposedlybeingcommemorated,andthenharshlychidesJewsforinserting
theirownparticularisticconcernsintothediscussion.Atacertainpoint,thesephenomenabecomea
continuationofaspecificformofoppressionanderasureratheranantidotetohatred.

TocontinuereadingthisessayinTablet,pleaseclickhere.

Copyright2016JamesKirchick,Allrightsreserved.
YouarereceivingthisemailbecauseyouareonjournalistJamieKirchick'smailinglist.

Ourmailingaddressis:

JamesKirchick

DistrictofColumbia

Washington,DC20009

Addustoyouraddressbook

Wanttochangehowyoureceivetheseemails?
Youcanupdateyourpreferencesorunsubscribefromthislist

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:hunter@
Date:Mon,May9,2016at10:08AM
Subject:REUTERS:RussiashowcasesSyriahardwareinRedSquaremilitaryparade
To:wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>

ED:KEYQUOTEFROMREUTERSITEM[LookingforYaltaII&beingcalledonitpickingonthePolesandUkes
fornotbuyingtheRussianversionofWWII]:

"Putin,inhisspeech,largelyconfinedhisremarkstotheimportanceofthewartimevictory.Buthealsospokeoftheneed
tofightglobalterrorismandtocooperatewithothernationstodothat.

"Terrorismhasbecomeaglobalthreat,"saidPutin."Wemustdefeatthisevil.AndRussiaisopentounitingeffortswith
othergovernments,isreadytoworkonthecreationofamodernnon-blocsystemofinternationalsecurity."

StatemediacriticizedgovernmentsinUkraineandPolandintherun-uptotheparadeforsystematicallydismantling
wartimemonumentsinhonorofSovietforces,accusingthemofdishonoringthetroopswholiberatedthemfromthe
Nazis.

Rulingpoliticiansinbothcountriesdisagree,sayingSoviettroopswereoccupiers.Themonumentsarebeingpulled
downaspartofade-communisationdrive,theysay.

VladimirNorosov,90,aSovietveteraninMoscowfortheparade,saidhewasangeredbysuchremarks.

"Wefoughttogether,myselfandmyPolishbrothers,"hetoldReuters."Howmanypeoplediedfightingtoliberatethat
country?Whattheyaredoingnowisdisgraceful."

RussiashowcasesSyriahardware

inRedSquaremilitaryparade

MOSCOW|BYANDREWOSBORNANDJACKSTUBBS

RussiarolledoutanairdefensemissilesystemofthekindusedtoprotectitsbaseinSyriaandsomeoftheRussianjetsflying
missionstherescreamedoverheadasitshowcaseditsmilitarywarmachineonMoscow'sRedSquareonMonday.

Thegrandparade,anannualfixturecommemoratingtheSovietUnion'svictoryovertheNazisinWorldWarTwo,tookplacein
brightsunshineasPresidentVladimirPutinlookedonfromatribunefilledwithSovietwarveterans,someofwhomworerowsof
campaignmedalsandclutchedredroses.

TheRussianleader,whoseforcesannexedUkraine'sCrimeain2014andarenowhelpingSyrianPresidentBasharal-Assad's
army,watchedasthousandsoftroopsmarchedacrossthecobbledsquaretothestrainsofmartialmusic.

Theauthorities,backedbystatemedia,usetheeventtoencouragepatriotism,reinforcenationalidentity,forgeopoliticalpoint
scoring,andtounderscoretheimportanceofhavingastrongmilitarytoprotectthecountry'sborders.

"It(thecommemoration)hasbecomeasymbolofsacredclosenessbetweenRussiaanditspeople,"Putintoldtheparade."Andin
suchunityandloyaltytothemotherlandliesourstrength,ourconfidence,andourdignity."

TheKremlinalsonowusestheeventtoshowhowamulti-billiondollarmodernizationprogramischangingthefaceoftheRussian
militarywithnewweaponsandhardware.

SomepoliticiansinformerSovietrepublicsorsatellitestatesregardtheparadeascrudesabre-rattlingbyaresurgentRussiathey
sayposesathreattoEurope'ssecurity.Russiadismissessuchallegationsasnonsense.

SYRIANHARDWARE

ColumnsoftanksfollowedthetroopsasdidtheadvancedS-400airdefensemissilesystem,whichisdeployedinSyriatoprotect
theRussianairbasethere.Russia'slatestYarsmobileintercontinentalnuclearmissilelauncherwasalsoonshow.

RELATEDVIDEO

Russiamarkswaranniversary

ScoresofmilitaryaircraftflewoverRedSquare,includingjetswhichemittedmulti-coloredsmoketotracethered,blueandwhite
colorsoftheRussianflaginthesky.

Putin,inhisspeech,largelyconfinedhisremarkstotheimportanceofthewartimevictory.Buthealsospokeoftheneedtofight
globalterrorismandtocooperatewithothernationstodothat.

"Terrorismhasbecomeaglobalthreat,"saidPutin."Wemustdefeatthisevil.AndRussiaisopentounitingeffortswithother
governments,isreadytoworkonthecreationofamodernnon-blocsystemofinternationalsecurity."

StatemediacriticizedgovernmentsinUkraineandPolandintherun-uptotheparadeforsystematicallydismantlingwartime
monumentsinhonorofSovietforces,accusingthemofdishonoringthetroopswholiberatedthemfromtheNazis.
Rulingpoliticiansinbothcountriesdisagree,sayingSoviettroopswereoccupiers.Themonumentsarebeingpulleddownaspartof
ade-communisationdrive,theysay.

VladimirNorosov,90,aSovietveteraninMoscowfortheparade,saidhewasangeredbysuchremarks.

"Wefoughttogether,myselfandmyPolishbrothers,"hetoldReuters."Howmanypeoplediedfightingtoliberatethatcountry?
Whattheyaredoingnowisdisgraceful."

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:MichaelAverko<michaelaverko@msn.com>
Date:Mon,May9,2016at2:55AM
Subject:Russian-UkrainianIntricacies[ED:PUTIN'SMOUTHPIECESPEAKSAGAIN.....GOESAFTERALEX
MOTYL]
To:

EurasiaReview-http://www.eurasiareview.com-http://www.eurasiareview.com/author/michael-averko/

Monday,May9,2016-http://www.eurasiareview.com/09052016-ongoing-russian-ukrainian-intricacies-analysis/

OngoingRussian-UkrainianIntricacies

byMichaelAverko

DiversityAmongRussiansandUkrainians

It'sdifficult(ifnotimpossible)foranessaytofullycoveralloftherelatedRussian-Ukrainiancomplexities.Hence,
articlesonthesubjectathandservetoencourageafollow-up.AlexanderClapp'slengthyApril25National
Interestarticle"HowtoJoinaUkrainianMilitia"hassomekeyomissions.

AmongthemisNadiyaSavchenko'sassociationwiththeAidargroup,whichClappdescribesastheleastreputableof
Ukrainiannationalistmilitias.WhencomparedtoClapp,someothersourcesaremorenegativeonthatmilitia.
UncriticallylaudedbytheObamaadministrationandsomeotherWesternofficialdom,SavchenkoreceivedWestern
attentionafterherincarcerationinRussia,whereshe'sservingacontroversialsentenceforcomplicityinthekillingof
twoRussianjournalistsineasternUkraine.(SavchenkoandAidararediscussedinmyStrategicCulture
FoundationpieceofthispastMarch17.)

SomeoftheUkrainiannationalistsopposetheEU-somethingthatClappdoesn'treallygetinto.Henotessome
sociallyconservativethinkingintheUkrainiannationalistmilitias,whichgreatlyexplainstheiroppositiontothe
comparativelymoreliberalmindedEU.

ConcerningtheUkrainiannationalistmilitias,issuecanbetakenwiththedegreeofpro-Polishsentimentexpressedin
Clapp'sarticle.OleksandrMuzychko,aslaincloseconfidantofformerRightSectorleaderDmytroYarosh,openly
statedanti-Polishviews,alongwithnegativecommentsaboutRussiansandJews.Lesserknownfolkshavesaidthe
sameaswell.Bynomeanscomplete,thePolishsupportforUkrainiannationalistsisn'twithoutsecondguessingin
Poland.ThisapprehensionhastodowiththecontemporaryUkrainiannationalistlaudingoftheOUN/UPA/Bandrea
legacy,whichviolentlyopposedPolandforaperiodpriortoandduringWWII.


Withsomevalidity,Clappsaysthatmuchofthepresentdaypro-StepanBanderasentimentisignorantlypremised
anddoesn'tinitselfalwaysreflectextremistthinking.Withoutbeingsubstantivelycontested,suchignoranceon
Banderaandtheextremists(amonghissupporters)canleadtomoreprovocativecommentsandaction.Priorto
Hitler'spoliticalascendancy,Germansenmassewereconsideredoneofthemoreculturedandeducatedofpeoples.

Inalternativemedia,therecentlyappointedheadofUkraine'sRada(parliament)AndriyParubiy,hasbeen
criticallyassessedforhisextremistviews.Incontrast,someothershighlighthischange(overthelastfewyears)to
adifferentpoliticalgroupingasamoderatingchange.Notwithstanding,it'sstillwithinreasontoregardParubiy
withsuspicion.

TherecentappointmentofVolodymyrGroysmanasUkrainianprimeminister,hasincludedareferencetohisJewish
origin.HispredecessorArseniyYatsenyukhassomeJewishbackground.JewsareamongtheprominentUkrainian
oligarchsinvolvedwiththeKievregime.Onecanfindvaryinginstancesofanti-JewishbehaviorinRussia,Ukraineand
theWest.Thelevelofthisbehaviorvaries.AstheSovietUnionwasbreakingupandthereafter,someJewish
organizationsandindividualshavelaudedthevastlyimprovedconditionforJewsinRussia.Likewise,Ukrainehas
receivedsomekudosonthatparticular.

Moresothaninthepast,moderndayhumanrightschallengesaremorelikelytoincludelessofananti-Jewish
message,onaccountoftheeffortsmadeinhighlightingandcondemninganti-Jewishbehavior,inconjunctionwith
intolerantforceshavingothertargetsfordisdain.Withthisinmind,thetrumpingofgoodconditionsforJewscan
servetocover-upotherhumanrightsabuses.(RetiredIsraeliGeneralEphraimSnehlaudsAzerbaijan'streatmentof
Jews,asabasisforgoodAzeri-Israelirelations.Meantime,Azerbaijanhasbeenthesubjectofnumeroushuman
rightsrelatedcriticism.)

Whendownplayingthelevelofanti-JewishmannerinKievregimecontrolledUkraine,theUkrainianPresidentPetro
PoroshenkofalselyclaimedthatJewsinCrimea(sinceitsreunificationwithRussia)arebarredfromattending
synagogueservices.ThelikesofEuromaidanPressandStopFakeprobablydidn'tmentionPoroshenko's
aforementionedfallacy.

TheacclaimedUSjournalistRobertParry,hasemphasizedthesuppressionofethnicRussiansinKievregimecontrolled
Ukraine.Thisistoobroadofacharacterizationwhichservesaspropagandafodderforpro-Kievregimeadvocates,
whoseektodiscreditthecounter-Euromaidan/pro-Russianposition.ThiscanbedonebynotingthatRussianis
spokeninKievregimecontrolledUkraine,withsomeethnicRussiansexpressingsupportfortheKievregimeover
Russia.

Foraccuracysake,Parryandsomeothersshouldemphasizethatthecounter-Euromaidan/pro-Russianstanceisheld
bysomeethnicUkrainians.TheEuromaidansuspectDonbassregionismostlypopulatedwithpeoplelistedasethnic
Ukrainian.Inadditiontopersonalaccounts,pollingindicatesthatmostofCrimea'sethnicUkrainianpopulationsupport
thatarea'sreunificationwithRussia.SinceCrimea'sreunificationwithRussia,asmallpercentageofCrimeanresidents
haveleftforUkraine.Duringthisperiod,agreaternumberhavemigratedfromUkrainetoRussiathanvice-versa.

UkrainianbornethnicUkrainiansVladimirMedinskyandValentinaMatviyenkoareappointedRussiangovernment
officials.There'sthematterofpoliticaldivisionamongfamilieswithformerUkrainianSovietSocialistRepublicroots,
asnotedinAlexeiPankin'sApril20RussiaInsiderarticle"Ukraine'sFM'sFather-In-LawIsRussianGeneralWhoHelped
ReuniteCrimeaWithRussia".

ClappexplainstheethnicRussianparticipationintheUkrainiannationalistmilitiasasanoppositiontotheRussian
government.TheseRussianscomeacrossasindividualswho'retheoppositeofconstructivelycriticalpro-Russian
advocates.Theirpositionsidestepsnumerousanti-RussianbiasesevidentinKievregimecontrolledUkraine(someof
whicharedescribedinmyJuly7,2014GlobalResearcharticle,inadditiontosomeofmycommentaryin
theStrategicCultureFoundationandEurasiaReviewvenues).


There'reinterestingtwistsandturnsregardingthefightersintheUkrainiannationalistmilitias.Asanexample,
BelarusianAzovmilitiafighterSergeiKorotkikh,oncebelongedtoapartythatsoughttorestoretheRussian
Empire.Severalsourceshavedescribedhimasaneo-Nazi.

IrespectfullyquestionClapp'sclaimthatapproximatelyhalfoftheAidarmilitiaareethnicRussians.AnearlierBBC
piecenotesaChechen(notethnicRussian)presenceinthatmilitia.ClappquotesAidarfightersinvokingthenameof
Allah.CouldClappbelumpingtogetherChechenRussiannationalswithethnicRussians?OnthesubjectofChechens
fightinginUkraine,thereferencedBBCpieceandsomeothersourcessaythatthisethnicgrouphasbeenmore
evidentonthecounter-Euromaidan/pro-RussianleaningDonbassrebelsidethantheKievregime's.

ThePredominatingNorthAmericanAcademia/MediaSlant

Howhistoryistaughtcangreatlyinfluencesomepeople,whodon'tactivelyseekotherperspectivesinfull.It'squite
ironicwhenit'speriodicallysaidthatRussiansinRussiaaremisledbecausethey'reregularlysubjectedtoone-sided
depictions.IntheUS,I'verunintonumerousovertheageoftwentyUkrainianbornethnicUkrainians,ethnic
Russians,Jewsandanymixofthethree(aswellassomeothers),who'vespentagooddealoftimeintheWest.
Theyincludeindividualswhoseviewsgenerallycoincidewithmine.Thisgroupingbelievethatpost-SovietUkraine
(especiallyaftertheso-called"OrangeRevolution"inlate2004)hasseenanincreasedanti-Russianhistoricalslant,
thathasnurturedagreateracceptanceoffactuallychallengedviews.

Unlikethebullypulpitapproach,manyoftheseindividuals(includingyourstruly)directlyaddressdisagreeablepoints.
Anumberofthemnotethelackoftoleranceamongthoseinhighprofilepositionswhodisagreewiththemandcando
sorathercrudely.Insteadoffeelingfreetocomfortablyexpressthemselvesintheopen,someinthecounter-
Euromaidan/pro-Russiangroupingprefertonotriskbeinglabeleda"Kremlintroll",
aftermakingreasonableobservations,withoutcomingclosetousingsuchcharacterizationsas"troll".

Attimes,anacademicstandingcanhavetheappearanceasanunofficiallicensetolaunchfaultydiatribes.Howcan
thisaspectinfluencetheteachingenvironment?Insomeacademicsettings(notall),astudent(prospectiveor
otherwise)infieldslikehistory,politicalstudiesandjournalism,mightunderstandablybeinclinedtoseethatakindof
selfcensorshipmightbeneededtobetteradvance.Unlikethehardsciencesofpreciseformulas,there'smorewiggle
roomintheliberalartstoshortchangeavalidperspectivethat'sunpopularwiththepredominatingview.

InNorthAmerica,theacademicandnon-academiclikesofAlexanderMotylofRutgersUniversityandSerhiiPlokhiiof
HarvardUniversity,aremorelikelytogetmassmediaactionoverotherswithadifferentoveralltake.I'mhard
pressedtorecallanyoneatRutgersand/orHarvardwho'veamassmediaopinionpieceindirectoppositiontoMotyl
andPlokhii.

Plokhiiwasn'tchallengedwhenhemadesome(putmildly)questionablecommentsinafeaturedQ&AwithStar
journalistOliviaWardthispastFebruary29.ContrarytoPlokhii,inthelead-uptoUkrainianPresidentViktor
Yanukovych'souster,publicopinionpollsinUkraineregularlyshowedadifferenceofwithin10%andinsomeinstances
avirtualtie,orslightsupportfavoringeithertheEUortheRussianinvolvedEurasianEconomicUnion.It'sfaultyto
judgetheprevailingmoodinUkraineonwhichgroupmustersthelargeststreetdemonstrationinKiev.

WardandPlokhiiengageinrevisionismwhensuggestingthatRussiawastheprimaryinstigatoroftensioninUkraine.
TheKremlinandthethenUkrainiangovernmentweren'tagainstthreeway(Russia,UkraineandEU)talksonhowto
bestdevelopUkraine.Onthisscore,theWestplayedmoreofthezerosumgame.

PlokhiicanbelegitimatelysecondguessedforsayingthattheCossacks(inwhat'snowmoderndayUkraine)had
unitedunderIvanMazepa,whenhechosetoopposeRussia.NumeroushistoricalaccountsnoteMazepa'sdownfall
beingpartlyattributedtothelackofsupporthereceived(fromCossacksandothers)intheareaheoversaw,after
hischangedallegiancefromRussiatoSwedenandPoland.

Inseveralinstances,MotylhasbeenfeaturedinNewsweekandTheWallStreetJournal.Hehasablogat
avenuedominatedbyaneocontoneolibleaningslant,favoringanti-Russianopinionsoverpro-Russianthoughts.

Inarecentblogpost,MotylhighlightsVladimirZhirinovsky'sstatureasasignofafascistRussia.Motylisreluctant
tocategorizepost-SovietUkraineasfascist,despiteitsissuingofstampshonoringStepanBandera,theelevationof
ParubiyasRadaheadandthelevelofpost-Yanukovychperiodviolence,inKievregimecontrolledUkraineagainst
counter-Euromaidanindividuals.

PresentdayRussiadoesn'tformallyhonorAndreyVlasov,whoinWWII,ledanarmyofcapturedRussiansoldiersina
nominalalliancewithNaziGermany.Vlasov'strackrecordisn'tasnegativeaswhathasbeenassociatedwith
Bandera.(ThetenuousstateofrelationsbetweenVlasovandBanderaisanotherintricatefacettotheRussian-
Ukrainianrelationship.IrecallhistorianJohnArmstrongandsomeothersnotingthatupto30%-40%ofVlasov's
personnelwereethnicUkrainians.Bandera'sforcesweregreatlycomprisedofGalicianUkrainians.Therewerealsothe
manyRussiansandUkrainianswhofoughtontheSovietside.)

AsforZhirinovsky,asubstantialenoughnumberseemtoviewhimasacrudeshtikcomicwithlimitedpolitical
influence.In2002,hedrewanenthusiasticaudienceinBrooklyn'sBrightonBeach.ABelarusian-JewishMD
acquaintancewhoisZionistinoutlookandsensitivetoanti-Jewishbigotry,toldmethathefindsZhirinovsky
entertainingandthathe'dpaytoseehimspeaklive.(Zhirinovsky'sfatherwasJewish.)Igatherfromtheseinstances
thatZhirinovskyisn'tforthepoliticallycorrect,whilehehasfoundanicheasanacceptableenoughpersonality,fora
noticeablenumberofpeoplewhoaren'tnecessarilyextreme.Atlastnotice,Zhirinovskyisn'tinvolvedwithanymilitias
harboringneo-Naziviews.

Theseobservationsaremadewithoutmeaningtogivehimacompletepass.Thoseopposedtoanti-Russian
propagandaatornearthedegreeofbigotryaren'tdoingtheircauserightwithinconsistency.

Motyl'sinfatuationwiththeimageofRussiaandfascismisindicatedinanotherblogpostofhis,withareferenceto
BenitoMussoliniandVladimirPutin.Putinhasanappointedinnercircleandmakesdecisionsastheheadofstate.
WhatprivatelygoesonbetweenPutinandhiscabinetisn'tsowellknown.ArecentfeatureinTheAtlanticreveals
thatObamahasmadedecisionsagainsthisadvisers.DoesthatmakeObamaaversionofMussolini?Motyl'sreference
ofPutinwithMussoliniisoffthemark.MuchunliketheItaliandictator,Putinhasopenlyexchangedviewswithpeople
whodisagreewithhimanddoesn'tbitewhathecan'tchew.

WitnesstheSyrianandUkrainianscenarios.TheKremlinassistedSyriangovernmentwasontheoffensivebefore
RussiacommittedtoaSyrianCivilWarceasefireandareducedRussiamilitarypresenceinSyria.Likewise,thepro-
RussianrebelsineasternUkrainelookedliketheycould'vegainedmoreterritory,beforeRussiacommitteditselftothe
MinskIIceasefireagreement.Libya,EthiopiaandGreeceposednothreattoItaly.AstheypertaintoRussia,the
morerecentSyrianandUkrainiansituationsaremuchdifferent.

TheRussianmilitarysupporttotheSyriangovernmentincludesthematterofaworseoptionthatcanblowover
beyondSyria.Specifically,SyriansituatedterroristshavingRussiaasoneoftheirmaintargets,aswellaspriorUS
actionsinIraqandSyria,whichhaveproducedsomenegativeresults.

Crimeaconcernsapro-RussianmajorityopposedtotheoverthrowofademocraticallyelectedUkrainianpresident,
followedbyaseriesofincreasedanti-Russianadvocacy.TheDonbasssituationinvolvesmanyinthatterritorywith
closetiestoRussia,whoaren'tcomfortablewiththepost-YanukovychKievbasedrule.

IncomparisontoUkraine,thereasonableperceptionofamoresecureandeconomicallybetteroffRussiaisamain
elementofthecounter-Euromaidan/pro-Russianstance.Whilenotnecessarilybeinganti-Western,thisperspective
seeslimitsinwhattheWestiswillingtoofferUkraine.

TheCounterPerspectiveattheIvyLeagueLevel

FromtheFortRussblog,IwasinformedofalectureatBrownUniversitybyStanislavByshokoftheCIS-Europe
MonitoringOrganization.Theredoesn'tappeartobeanonlinevideoofthisevent.Myresponsetohisaddress(as
postedbyFortRuss)includesomeofwhatIsaidinmyStrategicCultureFoundationpieceofthispastSeptember
29.

Byshokcould'vementionedthat"KievanRus"isalatterdayacademiccharacterizationusedtodescribe"Rus"and
thataNovgorodprince,Oleg,movedhismainlocaletoKiev,ataboutthetimethatmanybegintheperiodknownas
"KievanRus".In1862,Russiaformallyacknowledgedits1,000yearexistencebasedoutofNovgorod.

KievwastobecometheleadingRuscity.BeforetheMongolsubjugationofRus,Kievwasshowingadecreasein
influence.Backthen,thereweresignsthatterritoryincontemporarynorthwesternRussiawouldbecometheleading
Rusbase.ThislandwasgeographicallymoreaccessibletotheleadingWesternpowers.WithinRus,therewere
effortstodevelopthatterritory.

WhenhistoricallyhypingRussian-Ukrainiandifferences,the"svidomites"highlightAndreyBogolyubsky'sattackonKiev
in1169.(SvidomiteisaderisivelyusedtermtodescribeUkrainiannationalistswithananti-Russianlean.)
Bogolyubsky'sactionshouldbearguablyseenmoreassomethingakintoWilliamSherman'sattackonAtlantainthe
formofacivilwar,thanaforeignpowerattackingadifferententity.CreditedwithdevelopingSuzdal(nearMosocw),
BogolyubskyhadadynasticclaimtotheKievthrone,withhisgrandfatherbeingafamousKievcrownprince.

Thepro-Russiancommunityinpost-SovietUkrainewaswillingtoliveinaseparateUkrainianstate.Thiswillingness
wascompromisedwiththeactiontakenintheoverthrowofYanukovychandtheelevatedinfluenceofanti-Russian
leaningproponents.

IremainsomewhatmoreupbeatthansomeothersonthefutureofRussian-Ukrainianrelations.Someoncebitterrival
nationshaveputtheirpastdifferencesaside.ByshoksuggeststhattheimportanceofRussiacanleadtoalessened
Westernenthusiasmforpro-KievregimecontrolledUkraine.Anotherfactorcanincludeagrowingrealizationthatthe
Kievregimehasn'tbeensovirtuous.Inoneofhismorerealistmoments,USPresidentBarackObamasaid(in
hisexchangewithJeffreyGoldberginTheAtlantic)thatUkrainemeansmoretoRussiathanitdoestheWest.

MichaelAverkoisaNewYorkbasedindependentforeignpolicyanalystandmediacritic.Thisarticleisaclosely
relatedversionofthetwopartfeature,whichappearedattheStrategicCultureFoundation'swebsiteonMay
7and8.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:LubomyrLuciuk<lluciuk@cogeco.ca>
Date:2016-05-0910:21GMT-04:00
Subject:anti-SemiticandUkrainophobicimagecirculatedbytheRussians(captionreads:"Ukrainian
Nationalists")
To:

Zhydobanderovtsy_0001.jpg
 From: Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 05/08/201601:22:25PM
To: StephenBurant<sburant@verizon.net>
Subject: AmericaHasNeverBeenSoRipeforTyranny--NYMag.AndrewSullivan

AmericaHasNeverBeenSoRipeforTyranny

Democraciesend

whentheyaretoodemocratic.

Andrightnow,Americaisabreedinggroundfortyranny.

IllustrationbyZoharLazar

Asthisdystopianelectioncampaignhasunfolded,mymindkeepsbeingtuggedbyapassageinPlatosRepublic.Ithas
unsettledevensurprisedmefromthemomentIfirstreaditingraduateschool.Thepassageisfromthepartofthe
dialoguewhereSocratesandhisfriendsaretalkingaboutthenatureofdifferentpoliticalsystems,howtheychangeover
time,andhowonecanslowlyevolveintoanother.AndSocratesseemedprettyclearononesoberingpoint:thattyranny
isprobablyestablishedoutofnootherregimethandemocracy.WhatdidPlatomeanbythat?Democracy,forhim,I
discovered,wasapoliticalsystemofmaximalfreedomandequality,whereeverylifestyleisallowedandpublicofficesare
filledbyalottery.Andthelongerademocracylasted,Platoargued,themoredemocraticitwouldbecome.Itsfreedoms
wouldmultiplyitsequalityspread.Deferencetoanysortofauthoritywouldwithertoleranceofanykindofinequality
wouldcomeunderintensethreatandmulticulturalismandsexualfreedomwouldcreateacityoracountrylikeamany-
coloredcloakdecoratedinallhues.

Thisrainbow-flagpolity,Platoargues,is,formanypeople,thefairestofregimes.Thefreedominthatdemocracyhasto
beexperiencedtobebelievedwithshameandprivilegeinparticularemergingovertimeasanathema.Butitis
inherentlyunstable.Astheauthorityofelitesfades,asEstablishmentvaluescedetopopularones,viewsandidentitiescan
becomesomagnificentlydiverseastobemutuallyuncomprehending.Andwhenallthebarrierstoequality,formaland
informal,havebeenremovedwheneveryoneisequalwhenelitesaredespisedandfulllicenseisestablishedtodo
whateveronewants,youarriveatwhatmightbecalledlate-stagedemocracy.Thereisnokowtowingtoauthorityhere,
letalonetopoliticalexperienceorexpertise.

Theveryrichcomeunderattack,asinequalitybecomesincreasinglyintolerable.Patriarchyisalsodismantled:Wealmost
forgottomentiontheextentofthelawofequalityandoffreedomintherelationsofwomenwithmenandmenwith
women.Familyhierarchiesareinverted:Afatherhabituateshimselftobelikehischildandfearhissons,andason
habituateshimselftobelikehisfatherandtohavenoshamebeforeorfearofhisparents.Inclassrooms,astheteacher
...isfrightenedofthepupilsandfawnsonthem,sothestudentsmakelightoftheirteachers.Animalsareregardedas
equaltohumanstherichminglefreelywiththepoorinthestreetsandtrytoblendin.Theforeignerisequaltothecitizen.

Anditiswhenademocracyhasripenedasfullyasthis,Platoargues,thatawould-betyrantwilloftenseizehismoment.

Heisusuallyoftheelitebuthasanatureintunewiththetimegivenovertorandompleasuresandwhims,feastingon
plentyoffoodandsex,andrevelinginthenonjudgmentthatisdemocracyscivilreligion.Hemakeshismovebytaking
overaparticularlyobedientmobandattackinghiswealthypeersascorrupt.Ifnotstoppedquickly,hisappetitefor
attackingtherichonbehalfofthepeopleswellsfurther.Heisatraitortohisclassandsoon,hiseliteenemies,shornof
popularlegitimacy,findawaytoappeasehimorareforcedtoflee.Eventually,hestandsalone,promisingtocutthrough
theparalysisofdemocraticincoherence.Itsasifhewereofferingtheaddled,distracted,andself-indulgentcitizensakind
ofrelieffromdemocracysendlesschoicesandinsecurities.Heridesabacklashtoexcesstoomuchfreedomseemsto
changeintonothingbuttoomuchslaveryandoffershimselfasthepersonifiedanswertotheinternalconflictsofthe
democraticmess.Hepledges,aboveall,totakeontheincreasinglydespisedelites.Andasthepeoplethrilltohimasa
kindofsolution,ademocracywillingly,evenimpetuously,repealsitself.

Andso,asIchitchattedovercocktailsataWashingtonofficeChristmaspartyinDecember,andsaw,loomingaboveour
heads,thepulsating,angrytelevisedfaceofDonaldTrumponFoxNews,Icouldnthelpbutfeelalittlenauseapermeate
mystomach.AndasIwatchedfrenziedTrumpralliesonC-SPANinthespring,andsawhimlaywastetofarmore
qualifiedpoliticalpeersinthedebatesbysimplycallingthemnames,thenauseaturnedtodread.Andwhenheseemedto
condonephysicalviolenceasaresponsetopoliticaldisagreement,alarmbellsstartedtoringinmyhead.Platohad
plantedagnawingworryinmymindafewdecadesagoabouttheintrinsicdangeroflate-democraticlife.Itwas
increasinglyhardnottoseeinPlatosvisionamurkyreflectionofourownhyperdemocratictimesandinTrumpa
demagogic,tyrannicalcharacterpluckeddirectlyoutofoneofthefirstbooksaboutpoliticseverwritten.

CoulditbethattheDonaldhasemergedfromthepopulistcircusesofprowrestlingandNewYorkCitytabloids,via
realitytelevisionandTwitter,toprovenotjustPlatobutalsoJamesMadisonright,thatdemocracieshaveeverbeen
spectaclesofturbulenceandcontentionandhaveingeneralbeenasshortintheirlivesastheyhavebeenviolentintheir
deaths?Ishetestingdemocracyssingularweaknessitssusceptibilitytothedemagoguebyblastingthroughthe
firewallsweoncehadinplacetopreventsuchapersonfromseizingpower?OramIoverreacting?

Perhaps.Thenauseacomesandgoes,andtherehavebeendayswhenthenewsalgorithmhasactuallyreassuredmethat
peakTrumphasarrived.Butithasntgoneaway,andneitherhasTrump.Inthewakeofhismostrecentprimary
triumphs,atatimewhenheisperilouslyclosetowinningenoughdelegatestograbtheRepublicannominationoutright,I
thinkwemustconfrontthisdreadandbeclearaboutwhatthiselectionhasalreadyrevealedaboutthefragilityofourway
oflifeandthethreatlate-stagedemocracyisbeginningtoposetoitself.

Plato,ofcourse,wasnotclairvoyant.Hisanalysisofhowdemocracycanturnintotyrannyisacomplexonemorekeyed
towardancientsocietiesthanourown(andcontainsmorewrinklesandeddiesthanIcansummarizehere).Hisdisdainfor
democraticlifewasfueledinnosmallpartbythefactthatademocracyhadexecutedhismentor,Socrates.Andhe
would,Ithink,havebeenastonishedathowAmericandemocracyhasbeenabletothrivewithunprecedentedstability
overthelastcoupleofcenturiesevenasithasbroughtmoreandmorepeopleintoitsembrace.Itremains,inmyview,a
miracleofconstitutionalcraftsmanshipandculturalresilience.ThereisnoplaceIwouldratherlive.Butitisnotimmortal,
norshouldweassumeitisimmunetotheforcesthathaveendangereddemocracysomanytimesinhumanhistory.

PartofAmericandemocracysstabilityisowedtothefactthattheFoundingFathershadreadtheirPlato.Toguardour
democracyfromthetyrannyofthemajorityandthepassionsofthemob,theyconstructedlarge,heftybarriersbetween
thepopularwillandtheexerciseofpower.Votingrightsweretightlycircumscribed.Thepresidentandvice-president
werenottobepopularlyelectedbutselectedbyanElectoralCollege,whoserepresentativeswereselectedbythevarious
states,oftenthroughstatelegislatures.TheSenatesstructure(withtwomembersfromeverystate)wasdesignedto
temperthepowerofthemorepopulousstates,anditstermofoffice(sixyears,comparedwithtwofortheHouse)was
designedtocoolandrestraintemporarypopulistpassions.TheSupremeCourt,pickedbythepresidentandconfirmedby
theSenate,wasthefinalbulwarkagainstanydemocraticfuriesthatmightpercolateupfromtheHouseandthreatenthe
Constitution.Thisseparationofpowerswasdesignedpreciselytocreatesturdyfirewallsagainstdemocraticwildfires.

Overthecenturies,however,manyoftheseundemocraticruleshavebeenweakenedorabolished.Thefranchisehasbeen
extendedfarbeyondpropertiedwhitemen.Thepresidencyisnoweffectivelyelectedthroughpopularvote,withthe
ElectoralCollegealmostalwaysreflectingthenationaldemocraticwill.Andtheseformaldemocraticadvanceswere
accompaniedbyinformalones,asthecultureofdemocracyslowlytookdeeperroot.Foraverylongtime,onlytheelites
ofthepoliticalpartiescametoselecttheircandidatesattheirquadrennialconventions,withthevotelargelyrestrictedto
partyofficialsfromthevariousstates(andoftendecidedin,yes,smoke-filledroomsinlargehotelsuites).Beginninginthe
early1900s,however,thepartiesbeganexperimentingwithprimaries,andafterthechaosofthe1968Democratic
convention,todaysfarmoredemocraticsystembecamethenorm.

DirectdemocracydidntjustelectCongressandthepresidentanymoreitexpandedthenotionofwhomightbequalified
forpublicoffice.Once,candidatesbuiltacareerthroughexperienceinelectedorCabinetpositionsorasmilitary
commanderstheywereeffectivelyselectedbypeerreview.Thatelitistsortingmechanismhasslowlyimploded.In1940,
WendellWillkie,abusinessmanwithnopreviouspoliticaloffice,wontheRepublicannominationforpresident,pledgingto
keepAmericaoutofwarandboastingthathispersonalwealthinoculatedhimagainstcorruption:Iwillbeunder
obligationtonobodyexceptthepeople.HelostbadlytoFranklinD.Roosevelt,butnonetheless,sincethen,nonpolitical
candidateshaveproliferated,fromRossPerotandJesseJackson,toSteveForbesandHermanCain,tothisyearscrop
ofBenCarson,CarlyFiorina,and,ofcourse,DonaldJ.Trump.Thisfurtherwideningofourdemocracyourincreased
opennesstobeingledbyanyoneindeed,ouracceleratingpreferenceforoutsidersisnowalmostcomplete.

Thebarrierstothepopularwill,especiallywhenitcomestochoosingourpresident,arenowalmostnonexistent.In2000,
GeorgeW.BushlostthepopularvoteandwontheelectionthankstoElectoralCollegemathand,moreegregiously,toa
partisanSupremeCourtvote.AlGoreseventualconcessionsparedthenationaconstitutionalcrisis,buttheepisode
generatedwidespreadunease,notjustamongDemocrats.Andthisyear,thedelegatesystemestablishedbyourpolitical
partiesisalsounderassault.TrumphasarguedthatthecandidatewiththemostvotesshouldgettheRepublican
nomination,regardlessoftherulesinplace.Itnowlooksasifhewontevenneedtowinthatargumentthathellbank
enoughdelegatestosecurethenominationuncontestedbutheswonitanyway.FullyhalfofAmericansnowbelieve
thetraditionalnominatingsystemisrigged.

Manycontend,ofcourse,thatAmericandemocracyisactuallyinretreat,closetobeingdestroyedbythevastlymore
unequaleconomyofthelastquarter-centuryandtheabilityoftheveryrichtopurchasepoliticalinfluence.ThisisBernie
Sandersscorecritique.Butthepastfewpresidentialelectionshavedemonstratedthat,infact,moneyfromtheultrarich
hasbeenmostlyadud.BarackObama,whose2008campaignwaspropelledbysmalldonorsandempoweredbythe
internet,blazedthetrailofthemodern-dayinsurrectionist,defeatingtheprohibitivefavoriteintheDemocraticprimaryand
laterhisRepublicanopponent(bothpillarsoftheirpartiesEstablishmentsandbackedbymoneyedelites).In2012,the
fund-raisingpowerbehindMittRomneyavataroftheonepercentfailedtodislodgeObamafromoffice.Andinthis
presidentialcycle,thebreakoutcandidatesofbothpartieshavesoaredwithoutfinancialsupportfromtheelites.Sanders,
whoissustaininghiscampaignallthewaytoCaliforniaonthebacksofsmalldonorsandlargecrowds,is,toputitbluntly,
awalkingrefutationofhisownargument.Trump,ofcourse,isalargelyself-fundingbillionairebutlikeWillkie,he
arguesthathiswealthuniquelyenableshimtoresisttheinfluenceoftherichandtheirlobbyists.Thosedespairingoverthe
influenceofBigMoneyinAmericanpoliticsmustalsoexplaintheswift,humiliatingdemiseofJebBushandthestruggling
EstablishmentcampaignofHillaryClinton.Theevidencesuggeststhatdirectdemocracy,farfrombeingthrottled,is
actuallyintensifyingitsgriponAmericanpolitics.

Noneofthisisnecessarilycauseforalarm,eventhoughitwouldbegivingtheFoundingFatherspalpitations.The
emergenceofthefirstblackpresidentunimaginablebeforeourmoreinclusivedemocracyismiraculous,a
strengthening,ratherthanweakening,ofthesystem.Thedayswhenpartymachinesjustfixedthingsorriggedelectionsare
mercifullydonewith.Thewayinwhichoutsidercandidates,fromObamatoTrumpandSanders,havebroughtmillionsof
newpeopleintotheelectoralprocessisanunmitigatedadvance.Theinclusionofpreviouslyexcludedvoiceshelps,rather
thanimpedes,ourpublicdeliberation.Butitispreciselybecauseofthegreataccomplishmentsofourdemocracythatwe
shouldbevigilantaboutitsspecific,uniquevulnerability:itssusceptibility,instressfultimes,totheappealofashameless
demagogue.

Whatthe21stcenturyaddedtothispicture,itsnowblindinglyobvious,wasmediademocracyinatruly
revolutionaryform.Iflate-stagepoliticaldemocracyhastakentwocenturiestoripen,themediaequivalenttookaround
twodecades,swiftlyerasingalmostanyelitemoderationorcontrolofourdemocraticdiscourse.Theprocesshadits
originsinpartisantalkradioattheendofthepastcentury.Theriseoftheinternetaneventsoswiftandpervasiveits
politicaleffectisonlynowbeginningtobeunderstoodfurtherdemocratizedeverysourceofinformation,dramatically
expandedeachoutletsreadership,andgaveeveryoneaplatform.Alltheoldbarrierstoentrythecostofprintand
paperanddistributioncrumbled.

Somuchofthiswaswelcome.Irelisheditmyselfintheearlyaughts,startingablogandsoonreachingasmanyreaders,if
notmore,assomesmallmagazinesdo.Fustyold-mediainstitutions,grownfatandlazy,deservedadrubbing.Theearly
independentblogospherecorrectedfacts,exposedbias,earnedscoops.Andasthemediummatured,andasFacebook
andTwittertookhold,everyonebecameakindofblogger.Inwaysno20th-centuryjournalistwouldhavebelieved,weall
nowhaveourownvirtualnewspapersonourFacebooknewsfeedsandTwittertimelinespickingstoriesfromcountless
sourcesandcreatingapeer-to-peermediaalmostcompletelyfreeofeditingorinterferencebyelites.Thiswasboundto
makepoliticsmorefluid.Politicalorganizingcallingameeting,fomentingarallytoadvanceacauseusedtobe
extremelylaborious.Nowyoucouldbringtogetheravirtualmassmovementwithasinglewebpage.Itwouldtakeyoua
fewseconds.

Thewebwasalsouniquelycapableofabsorbingotherformsofmedia,conflatinggenresandcategoriesinwaysnever
seenbefore.Thedistinctionbetweenpoliticsandentertainmentbecamefuzzierelectioncoveragebecameevenmore
modeledonsportscastingyourPornhubjostledrightnexttoyourmothersFacebookpage.Thewebsalgorithmsallbut
removedanyeditorialjudgment,andtheeffectsoonhadcablenewsabandoningeventhepretenseofaskingIsthis
relevant?orDowereallyneedtocoverthislive?intherushtowardratingsbonanzas.Intheend,allthesecategories
werereducedtoonething:traffic,measuredfarmoreaccuratelythananyothermediumhadeverdonebefore.

AndwhatmainlyfuelsthisispreciselywhattheFoundersfearedaboutdemocraticculture:feeling,emotion,and
narcissism,ratherthanreason,empiricism,andpublic-spiritedness.Onlinedebatesbecomepersonal,emotional,and
irresolvablealmostassoonastheybegin.GodwinsLawitsonlyamatteroftimebeforeacommentssectionbrings
upHitlerisareflectionofthecollapseofthereasoneddeliberationtheFounderssawasindispensabletoafunctioning
republic.
Yes,occasionalrationalpointsstillflybackandforth,buttherearedramaticallyfewerelitearbiterstoestablishwhichof
thosepointsisactuallytrueorvalidorrelevant.Wehavelostauthoritativesourcesforevenacommonsetoffacts.And
withoutsuchcommonempiricalground,theemotionalcomponentofpoliticsbecomesinflamedandreasonretreatseven
further.Themoreemotivethecandidate,themoresupportersheorshewillget.

Politically,weluckedoutatfirst.Obamawouldneverhavebeennominatedforthepresidency,letaloneelected,ifhe
hadntharnessedthepowerofthewebandthecharismaofhismediacelebrity.Buthewasalso,paradoxically,avery
elitefigure,aformerstateandU.S.senator,aproductofHarvardLawSchool,and,asitturnedout,blessedwitha
preternaturallyrationalandcalmdisposition.Sohehasmasked,temporarily,therealrisksinthesystemthathispioneering
campaignrevealed.HencemanyDemocratsfrustrationwithhim.Thosewhosawinhiscampaigntheseedsof
revolutionarychange,whoweredrawntohimbytheirownmessianicdelusions,cametobebitterlydisappointedbyhis
governingmoderationandpragmatism.

TheclimateObamathrivedin,however,wasalsoripeforfarlessrestrainedopportunists.In2008,SarahPalinemerged
asproofthatanardentRepublican,brandedasanoutsider,tailor-madeforrealityTV,proudofherownignoranceabout
theworld,andreachinganaudiencedirectlythroughonlinemedia,couldalsotriumphinthisnewera.Shewas,itturned
out,aJohntheBaptistforthetruemessiahofconservativepopulism,waitingpatientlyandstrategicallyforhistimeto
come.

Trump,wenowknow,hadbeenconsideringrunningforpresidentfordecades.Thosewhodidntseehimcomingor
kepttreatinghimasajokehadnotyetabsorbedtheprecedentsofObamaandPalinorthepowerofthenewwide-
opensystemtochangetherulesofthepoliticalgame.Trumpwasasunderratedforallof2015asObamawasin2007
andforthesamereasons.HeintuitivelygraspedthevanishingauthorityofAmericanpoliticalandmediaelites,andhehad
longfashionedapublicpersonaperfectlyattunedtoblastpastthem.

Despitehisimmensewealthandinheritedprivilege,Trumphadalwayscultivatedacommontouch.Hedidnothidehis
wealthinthelate-20thcenturyheflaunteditinawaythatconnectedwiththemasses.Helivedtherichmanslifemost
workingmendreamedofendlessglamourandwomen,forexamplewithoutsacrificingawayoftalkingaboutthe
worldthatwouldnotbeoutofplaceontheconstructionsitesheregularlytoured.Hiswasacultofdemocraticaspiration.
His1987book,TheArtoftheDeal,promiseditsreadersapathtoinstantsuccesshisappearancesonTheHoward
SternShowcementedhisappeal.HisfriendshipwithVinceMcMahonofferedhimanearlyentreintotheworldof
professionalwrestling,withitsfusionofsportsandfantasy.Hewasamachomediasuperstar.

OneofthemoreamazingepisodesinSarahPalinsearlypoliticallife,infact,bearsthisout.Shepoppedupinthe
AnchorageDailyNewsasacommercialfishermanfromWasillaonApril3,1996.Palinhadtoldherhusbandshewas
goingtoCostcobuthadsneakedintoJ.C.PenneyinAnchoragetoseeoneIvanaTrump,who,inthewakeofher
divorce,wastoutingherbrandedperfume.WewanttoseeIvana,Palintoldthepaper,becausewearesodesperatein
Alaskaforanysemblanceofglamourandculture.

Trumpassiduouslycultivatedthisimageandtooktorealitytelevisionasanatural.Eachweek,for14seasonsofThe
Apprentice,hewouldlooksomeoneintheeyeandtellthem,Yourefired!Theconversationmosthumanebossesfear
tohavewithanemployeewassomethingTrumpclearlyrelished,andthecrueltybecameentertainment.Inretrospect,itis
clearhewastrainingbothhimselfandhisviewers.Ifyouwanttounderstandwhyafiguresowidelydisliked
nonethelesspowerstowardtheelectionasifhewereapproachingareality-TV-showfinale,looknofurther.Histelevision
tactics,asappliedtopresidentialdebates,wipedoutrivalsusedtoadifferentgame.Andallourreality-TVtraininghas
conditionedustohopehellwinoratleaststayinthegametillthefinalround.Insuchashame-freemedia
environment,theassholesoftenwin.Intheend,yousupportthembecausetheyreassholes.

InEricHoffersclassic1951tract,TheTrueBeliever,hesketchesthedynamicsofagenuinemassmovement.Hewas
thinkingoftheupheavalsinEuropeinthefirsthalfofthecentury,butthebookremainssobering,especiallynow.Hoffers
coreinsightwastolocatethesourceofalltrulymassmovementsinacollectivesenseofacutefrustration.Notdespair,or
revolt,orresignationbutfrustrationsimmeringwithrage.Massmovements,henotes(asdidTocquevillecenturies
beforehim),rarelyarisewhenoppressionormiseryisatitsworst(say,2009)theytendtoappearwhentheworstis
behindusbutthefutureseemsnotsomuchbetter(say,2016).Itiswhenarecoveryfinallygathersspeedandsome
improvementistangiblebutnotyetwidespreadthattheangerbeginstorise.Afterthesufferingofrecessionor
unemployment,anddespitehardworkwithstagnantordwindlingpay,thefuturestretchesaheadwithreliefjustoutof
reach.Whenthosewhohelpedcreatethelastrecessionfacenoconsequencesbutrenewedfabulouswealth,theanger
reachesacrescendo.

Thedeeper,long-termreasonsfortodaysragearenothardtofind,althoughmanyofuseliteshaveshamefullyfound
ourselvesabletoignorethem.Thejobsavailabletotheworkingclassnolongercontainthekindofcraftsmanshipor
satisfactionormeaningthatcantakethestingoutoftheirlowandstagnantwages.Theonce-familiaravenuesfor
socializationthechurch,theunionhall,theVFWhavebecomelessvibrantandsocialisolationmorecommon.
Globaleconomicforceshavepummeledblue-collarworkersmorerelentlesslythanalmostanyothersegmentofsociety,
forcingthemtocompeteagainsthundredsofmillionsofequallyskilledworkersthroughouttheplanet.Nooneaskedthem
inthe1990sifthiswasthefuturetheywanted.Andtheimpacthasbeenmorebrutalthanmanyeconomistspredicted.No
wondersuicideandmortalityratesamongthewhiteworkingpoorarespikingdramatically.

Itisusuallythosewhosepovertyisrelativelyrecent,thenewpoor,whothrobwiththefermentoffrustration,Hoffer
argues.Fundamentalistreligionlongprovidedsomeemotionalsupportforthoseleftbehind(foronething,itinvites
practitionerstodefytheelitesasunholy),butitsinfluencehaswanedasmodernityhaspenetratedalmosteverythingand
thegreatculturewarsofthe1990sand2000shaveendedinarout.Theresulthasbeenamorediversemainstream
culturebutalso,simultaneously,asubculturethatisevenmorealienatedanddespised,andevermoreinfuriatedand
bloody-minded.

Thisisanageinwhichawomanmightsucceedablackmanaspresident,butalsooneinwhichamemberofthewhite
workingclasshasdecliningoptionstomakeadecentliving.Thisisatimewhengaypeoplecanbemarriedin50states,
evenasworking-classfamiliesarehangingbyathread.Itsaperiodinwhichwehavebecomefarmoreawareofthe
historicinjusticesthatstillhauntAfrican-Americansandyetwetreatthedesperateplightoftodayswhiteworkingclassas
anafterthought.Andsolate-stagecapitalismiscreatingarighteous,revolutionaryangerthatlate-stagedemocracyhas
preciouslittleabilitytomoderateorconstrainandhasactuallyhelpedexacerbate.

Forthewhiteworkingclass,havinghadtheirmoralsroundlymocked,theirreligiondeemedprimitive,andtheireconomic
prospectsdecimated,nowfindtheirverygenderandrace,indeedtheverywaytheytalkaboutreality,describedasakind
ofproblemforthenationtoovercome.ThisisjustoneaspectofwhatTrumphasmasterfullysignaledaspolitical
correctnessrunamok,orwhatmightbebetterdescribedasthenewlyrigidprogressivepassionforracialandsexual
equalityofoutcome,ratherthantheliberalaspirationtomereequalityofopportunity.

Muchofthenewlyenergizedlefthascometoseethewhiteworkingclassnotasalliesbutprimarilyasbigots,misogynists,
racists,andhomophobes,therebycondemningthoseoftenatthenear-bottomrungoftheeconomytothebottomrungof
thecultureaswell.AstrugglingwhitemanintheheartlandisnowtoldtocheckhisprivilegebystudentsatIvyLeague
colleges.Evenifyouagreethattheprivilegeexists,itshardnottoempathizewiththeobjectofthisdisdain.These
working-classcommunities,alreadyalienated,hearhowcantheynot?theglibandeasydismissalsofwhitestraight
menastheultimatesourceofallourwoes.Theysmellthecondescensionandthebroadgeneralizationsaboutthemall
ofwhichwouldberepellentifdirectedatracialminoritiesandseethemselves,inHofferswords,disinheritedand
injuredbyanunjustorderofthings.

Andsotheywait,andtheysteam,andtheylashout.Thiswaspartoftheemotionalforceoftheteaparty:notjustthe
advancementofracialminorities,gays,andwomenbutthesimultaneousdemonizationofthewhiteworking-classworld,
itscultureandwayoflife.Obamaneverintendedthis,buthebecameasymboltomanyofthisculturalmarginalization.
TheBlackLivesMatterleftstokedthefiresstillfurthersodidthegayleft,forwhomthewordmagnanimityseems
unknown,eveninthewakeofstunningsuccesses.AndastheteapartysweptthroughWashingtonin2010,asits
representativesrepeatedlyheldthegovernmentbudgethostage,threatenedtheverycreditoftheU.S.,andrefusedto
holdhearingsonaSupremeCourtnominee,theAmericanpoliticalandmediaEstablishmentmostlychosetointerpret
suchbehaviorassomethingotherthanunprecedented.ButTrumpsawwhatothersdidnt,justasHoffernoted:The
frustratedindividualandthetruebelievermakebetterprognosticatorsthanthosewhohavereasontowantthe
preservationofthestatusquo.

Massmovements,Hofferargues,aredistinguishedbyafacilityformake-believecredulity,areadinesstoattempt
theimpossible.What,onewonders,couldbemoreimpossiblethansuddenlyvettingeverysinglevisitortotheU.S.for
tracesofIslamicbelief?Whatcouldbemoremake-believethanabig,beautifulwallstretchingacrosstheentireMexican
border,paidforbytheMexicangovernment?Whatcouldbemorecredulousthanarguingthatwecouldpayoffour
nationaldebtthroughaglobaltradewar?Inaconventionalpoliticalparty,andinarationalpoliticaldiscourse,suchideas
wouldbelaughedoutofcontention,theirself-evidentimpossibilitydisqualifyingthemfromseriousconsideration.Inthe
emotionalfervorofademocraticmassmovement,however,theseimpossibilitiesbecomeiconsofhope,symbolsofanew
wayofconductingpolitics.Theirveryimpossibilityistheirappeal.

Butthemostpowerfulengineforsuchamovementthethingthatgetsitofftheground,shapesandsolidifiesand
entrenchesitisalwaystheevocationofhatred.Itis,asHofferputit,themostaccessibleandcomprehensiveofall
unifyingelements.AndsoTrumplaunchedhiscampaignbycallingundocumentedMexicanimmigrantsapopulation
largelyofrapistsandmurderers.HemovedontoMuslims,bothathomeandabroad.Hehasnowaddedtothese
enemieswithslybrilliancetheRepublicanEstablishmentitself.AndwhatmakesTrumpuniquelydangerousinthe
historyofAmericanpoliticswithfarbroadernationalappealthan,say,HueyLongorGeorgeWallaceishis
responsetoallthreeenemies.Itsthethreatofbluntcoercionanddominance.

AndsoafterdemonizingmostundocumentedMexicanimmigrants,hethenvowedtoroundupanddeportall11millionof
thembyforce.Theyhavetogowasthetypicallybluntphraseheusedandsomehowpeopledidntimmediately
recognizethemonstroushistoricalechoes.Thesheerscaleofthepoliceandmilitaryoperationthatthispolicywouldentail
bogglesthemind.Worse,heemphasized,afterthemassmurderinSanBernardino,thateventheMuslim-Americansyou
knowintimatelymayturnaroundandmassacreyouatanyjuncture.Theressomethinggoingon,hedeclaimed
ominously,givinglegitimacytothemosthystericalanduglyofhumanimpulses.

Tocallthisfascismdoesntdojusticetofascism.Fascismhad,insomemeasure,anideologyandoccasionalcoherence
thatTrumputterlylacks.Buthismovementisclearlyfascisticinitsdemonizationofforeigners,itshypingofathreatbya
domesticminority(MuslimsandMexicansarethenewJews),itsfocusonasinglesupremeleaderofwhatcanonlybe
calledacult,anditsdeepbeliefinviolenceandcoercioninademocracythathasheretoforereliedondebateand
persuasion.ThisistheWeimaraspectofourcurrentmoment.JustastheEnglishCivilWarendedwithadictatorship
underOliverCromwell,andtheFrenchRevolutiongaveusNapoleonBonaparte,andtheunstablechaosofRussian
democracyyieldedtoVladimirPutin,andthemostrecentburstofEgyptiandemocracysettheconditionsforGeneralel-
Sisiscoup,soourparalyzed,emotionalhyperdemocracyleadsthestumbling,frustrated,angryvotertowardthe
chimericalpanaceaofTrump.

Hisresponsetohisthirdvauntedenemy,theRNC,isalsolacedwiththethreatofviolence.Therewillberiotsin
Clevelandifhedoesntgethisway.TheRNCwillhavearoughtimeifitdoesntcooperate.PaulRyan,Idontknow
himwell,butImsureImgoingtogetalonggreatwithhim,Trumphassaid.AndifIdont?Hesgonnahavetopaya
bigprice,okay?ThepastmonthhasseendelegatestotheClevelandconventionreceivingdeaththreatsoneofTrumps
hatchetmen,RogerStone,hasalreadythreatenedtopublishthehotelroomsofdelegateswhorefusetovoteforTrump.

AndwhatsnotableaboutTrumpssupportersispreciselywhatonewouldexpectfrommembersofamassmovement:
theirintenseloyalty.Trumpistheirman,howeverinarticulatetheyarewhenexplainingwhy.Hestough,hesreal,and
theyvegothisback,especiallywhenheisattackedbyallthepeopletheyhavecometodespise:liberalDemocratsand
traditionalRepublicans.Atrallies,wheneveraprotesterishauledout,youcanalmostsensetherisingrageofthecollective
identityventingitselfagainstalonedissenterandfindingacatharsisofsortsinthebruteforceamobcaninflictonan
individual.Trumptellsthecrowdhedliketopunchaprotesterinthefaceorhavehimcarriedoutonastretcher.No
modernpoliticianwhohascomethisclosetothepresidencyhaschampionedviolenceinthisway.Itwouldbe
disqualifyingifourhyperdemocracyhadntalreadyabolisheddisqualifications.

Andwhileacriticalelementof20th-centuryfascismitsorganizedstreetviolenceismissing,youcanbegintoseeit
inembryonicform.ThephalanxofbodyguardsaroundTrumpgrowsdailyplainclothesbouncersinthecrowdshave
emergedaspseudo-copstocontaintheincipientunresthiscandidacywillonlycontinuetoprovokesupportershave
attackedhecklerswithsometimesstunningferocity.EverytimeTrumplegitimizespotentialviolencebyhissupportersby
sayingitcomesfromaloveofcountry,hesowstheseedsforseriouscivilunrest.

Trumpcelebratestorturetheonetrueloveoftyrantseverywherenotbecauseitallegedlyproducesintelligencebut
becauseithasademonstrationeffect.AthisrallieshehasrecountedthemythicalactsofoneGeneralJohnJ.Pershing
whenconfrontedwithanallegedoutbreakofIslamistterrorisminthePhilippines.Pershing,inTrumpstelling,linesup50
Muslimprisoners,swishesaseriesofbulletsinthecorpsesoffreshlyslaughteredpigs,andordershismentoputthose
bulletsintheirriflesandkill49ofthecapturedMuslimmen.Hesparesonecaptivesolelysohecangobackandtellhis
friends.Endoftheterrorismproblem.

Insomeways,thisstorycontainsalltheelementsofTrumpscoreappeal.Thevexingproblemoftacklingjihadistterror?
Tortureandmurderenoughterroristsandtheywillsimplygoaway.Thecomplicatedissueofundocumentedworkers,
drawnbyjobsmanyAmericanswonttake?Deporteverysingleoneofthemandbuildawalltostoptherest.Fuck
politicalcorrectness.AsoneofhissupporterstoldanobtusereporteratarallywhenaskedifhesupportedTrump:Hell
yeah!Hesno-bullshit.Allballs.Fuckyouallballs.ThatswhatImabout.Andthereinliestheappealoftyrantsfromthe
beginningoftime.Fuckyouallballs.Irrationalitywithmuscle.

Theracialaspectofthisisalsounmissable.WhentheenemywithinisMexicanorMuslim,andyourranksareextremely
white,yousetuparubricforaracialconflict.AndwhatstrulyterrifyingaboutTrumpisthathedoesnotseemtoshrink
fromsuchaprospectherelishesit.

For,likealltyrants,heisutterlylackinginself-control.Sleepingahandfulofhoursanight,impulsivelytweetingintheearly
hours,improvisingmadlyonsubjectsheknowsnothingabout,Trumprantsandravesashesurfsanentirelyreactive
medialandscape.Onceagain,Platohadhistemperamentdown:Atyrantisamannothavingcontrolofhimself[who]
attemptstoruleothersamanfloodedwithfearandloveandpassion,whilehavinglittleornoabilitytorestrainor
moderatethemarealslavetothegreatestfawning,amanwhothroughouthisentirelife...isfulloffear,overflowing
withconvulsionsandpains.Soundfamiliar?Trumpisasmercurialandasunpredictableandasemotionalasthedaily
Twitterstream.Andwearecontemplatinggivinghimaccesstothenuclearcodes.

ThosewhobelievethatTrumpsugly,thuggishpopulismhasnochanceofevermakingittotheWhiteHouseseemtome
tobemissingthisdynamic.Neo-fascistmovementsdonotadvancegraduallybypersuasiontheyfirsttransformtheterms
ofthedebate,createanewmovementbasedonuntrammeledemotion,takeoverexistinginstitutions,andthenruthlessly
exploitevents.Andsocurrentpollnumbersareonlyreassuringifyouignorethepotentialimpactofsudden,external
eventsaneconomicdownturnoraterrorattackinamajorcityinthemonthsbeforeNovember.Ihavenodoubt,for
example,thatTrumpissincereinhisdesiretocuttheheadoffISIS,whateverthatcanpossiblymean.Butitremainsa
factthattheinterestsofISISandtheTrumpcampaignarenowperfectlyaligned.Fearisalwaysthewould-betyrants
greatestally.

AndthoughTrumpsunfavorablesareextraordinarilyhigh(around65percent),heisalreadyshowingsignsofchanginghis
tune,pivoting(fitfully)tothemorepresidentialmodeheenvisagesdeployinginthegeneralelection.Isuspectthiswill,to
somefoolsonthefence,comeasakindofrelief,andmayopentheirmindstohimoncemore.Tyrants,likemobbosses,
knowthevalueofasmile:Preciselybecauseofthefearhesalreadygenerated,youdesperatelywanttobelieveinhisnew
warmth.Itspartofthegood-cop-bad-coproutinethatwillbefamiliartoanyonewhohasstudiedthepresidencyof
VladimirPutin.

Withhisappealtohisownbaselockedup,Trumpmaywellalsoshifttomoremoderatestancesonsocialissueslike
abortion(healreadywantstoamendtheGOPplatformtoalessdraconianposition)orgayandeventransgenderrights.
Heisconsistentinhisinconsistency,because,forhim,winningiswhatcounts.HehashadarealcaseagainstTedCruz
thatthesenatorhasnobaseoutsideideological-conservativequartersandisevenlesslikelytowinageneralelection.
Morepotently,TrumphasaworryinglystrongargumentagainstClintonherselforcrookedHillary,ashenowdubs
her.

Hispropositionisasimpleone.RememberJamesCarvillescorequestioninthe1992election:Changeversusmoreof
thesame?ThatsentimentonceelectedClintonshusbanditcouldalsoelectheropponentthisfall.IfyoulikeAmericaas
itis,voteClinton.Afterall,shehasbeenamemberoftheAmericanpoliticaleliteforaquarter-century.Clinton,moreover,
hasshownnoabilitytoinspireorrallyanyonebutherlongtimeloyalists.Sheislostinthenewmediaandhasstruggledto
putawaya74-year-oldsocialistwhoisbarelyamemberofherparty.Herownunfavorablesareonly11pointslower
thanTrumps(farhigherthanObamas,JohnKerrys,orAlGoreswereatthispointintherace),andthemoreshe
campaigns,thehigherherunfavorablesgo(includinginherownparty).ShehasaGoreproblem.Theideaofwelcoming
herintoyourlivingroomforthenextfouryearscanseem,attimes,positivelymasochistic.

Itmaybethatdemographicswillsaveus.Americaisnolongeranoverwhelminglywhitecountry,andTrumpssignature
issueillegalimmigrationisthesourceofhisstrengthbutalsoofhisweakness.Nonetheless,itsworthnotinghow
pollingmodelshaveconsistentlymisreadthebreadthofhissupport,especiallyinthesepastfewweekshewilllikelybend
overbackwardtoincludeminoritiesinhisfallcampaignandthoseconvincedhecannotbringawholenewswathofwhite
votersbackintothepoliticalprocessshouldremember2004,whenKarlRovehelpedengineeranti-gay-marriagestate
constitutionalamendmentsthatincreasedconservativevoterturnout.AllTrumpneedsisasliverofminorityvotesinspired
bythenewenergyofhiscampaignandtheallegeddominanceoftheObamacoalitioncouldcrack(especiallywithout
Obama).ThroughouttheWestthesepastfewyears,fromFrancetoBritainandGermany,thepollshavekeptmissingthe
powerofright-winginsurgency.

WereTrumptowintheWhiteHouse,thedefensesagainsthimwouldbeweak.HewouldlikelybringaGOPmajorityin
theHouse,andRepublicansintheSenatewouldbesubjectedtoalmightypopularfuryiftheystoodinhisway.The4-4
stalemateintheSupremeCourtwouldbreakinTrumpsfavor.(Inlargepart,ofcourse,thiswouldbeduetotheGOPs
unprecedenteddecisiontoholdavacancyopenforthepeopletodecide,anothermassivehyperdemocraticbreachin
ourconstitutionaldefenses.)AndifTrumpspoliciesarecheckedbyotherbranchesofgovernment,howmighthereact?
JustlookathisresponsetotherulesoftheGOPnominationprocess.Hesnotinterestedinrules.Andhebarely
understandstheConstitution.Inonerevealingmomentearlierthisyear,whenaskedwhathewoulddoifthemilitary
refusedtoobeyanillegalordertotortureaprisoner,Trumpsimplyinsistedthatthemanwouldobey:Theywontrefuse.
Theyrenotgoingtorefuse,believeme.Helateramendedhisremark,butitspeaksvolumesabouthisapproachto
power.DickCheneygaveillegalorderstotortureprisonersandcoercedWhiteHouselawyerstocookupabsurdlegal
defenses.TrumpwouldmakeCheneysembraceofthedarksideanduntrammeledexecutivepowerlookunambitious.

Inhis1935novel,ItCantHappenHere,SinclairLewiswroteacounterfactualaboutwhatwouldhappeniffascismas
itwasthenspreadingacrossEuropeweretotriumphinAmerica.Itsnotagoodnovel,butitremainsaresonantone.The
imaginedAmericanfascistleaderasenatorcalledBuzzWindripisaProfessionalCommonManButhewasthe
CommonMantwenty-times-magnifiedbyhisoratory,sothatwhiletheotherCommonerscouldunderstandhisevery
purpose,whichwasexactlythesameastheirown,theysawhimtoweringamongthem,andtheyraisedhandstohimin
worship.

Hewasvulgar,almostilliterate,apublicliareasilydetected,andinhisideasalmostidiotic.IknowthePressonly
toowell,Windripopinesatonepoint.Almostalleditorshideawayinspider-dens,menwithoutthoughtofFamilyor
PublicInterestplottinghowtheycanputovertheirlies,andadvancetheirownpositionsandfilltheirgreedy
pocketbooks.

Heisobsessedwiththebalanceoftradeandpromisesinstanteconomicsuccess:Ishallnotbecontenttillthiscountry
canproduceeverysinglethingweneedWeshallhavesuchabalanceoftradeaswillgofartocarryoutmyoften-
criticizedyetcompletelysoundideaoffrom$3000to$5000peryearforeverysinglefamily.Howeverfantasticaland
emptyhispromises,henonethelessmesmerizesthepartyfaithfulatthenominatingconvention(heldinCleveland!):
SomethingintheintensitywithwhichWindriplookedathisaudience,lookedatallofthem,hisglanceslowlytakingthem
infromthehighest-perchedseattothenearest,convincedthemthathewastalkingtoeachindividual,directlyandsolely
thathewantedtotakeeachofthemintohisheartthathewastellingthemthetruths,theimperiousanddangerousfacts,
thathadbeenhiddenfromthem.

Andalltheeliteswhostoodinhisway?Crippledbytheirownfailures,demoralizedbytheircrumblingstature,theyfirst
mockandthencave.Asonelonejournalistlamentsbeforetheelection(hefindshimselfinaconcentrationcamp
afterward):IvegottokeeprememberingthatWindripisonlythelightestcorkonthewhirlpool.Hedidntplotallthis
thing.WithallthejustifieddiscontentthereisagainstthesmartpoliticiansandthePlushHorsesofPlutocracyoh,ifit
hadntbeenoneWindrip,itdbeenanotherWehaditcoming,weRespectables.

And,81yearslater,manyofusdid.AnAmericanelitethathaspresidedovermassiveandincreasingpublicdebt,that
failedtoprevent9/11,thatchoseadisastrouswarintheMiddleEast,thatallowedfinancialmarketstonearlydestroythe
globaleconomy,andthatisnowsobitterlydividedtheCongressiseffectivelymootinaconstitutionaldemocracy:We
Respectablesdeserveacomeuppance.ThevitalandvalidlessonoftheTrumpphenomenonisthatiftheelitescannot
governbycompromise,someoneoutsidewilleventuallytrytogovernbypopularpassionandbruteforce.

Butelitesstillmatterinademocracy.Theymatternotbecausetheyaredemocracysenemybutbecausetheyprovidethe
criticalingredienttosavedemocracyfromitself.ThepoliticalEstablishmentmaybebatteredanddemoralized,deferential
tothealgorithmsofthewebandtothemonosyllablesofagifteddemagogue,butthisisnotthetimetogiveupon
Americasnear-uniqueandstabilizingblendofdemocracyandeliteresponsibility.Thecountryhasenduredfarharsher
timesthanthepresentwithoutsuccumbingtorankdemagogueryitavoidedthefascismthatdestroyedEuropeithas
channeledextraordinaryoutpouringsofdemocraticenergyintoconstitutionalorder.Itseemsshockingtoarguethatwe
needelitesinthisdemocraticageespeciallywithvastinequalitiesofwealthandelitefailuresallaroundus.Butweneed
thempreciselytoprotectthispreciousdemocracyfromitsowndestabilizingexcesses.

AndsothoseDemocratswhoaregleefullypredictingaClintonlandslideinNovemberneedtobothchecktheir
complacencyandunderstandthattheTrumpquestionreallyisntacauseforpartisanSchadenfreudeanymore.Itsmuch
moredangerousthanthat.Thosestillbackingthedemagogueoftheleft,BernieSanders,mightwanttoreflectthattheir
critiqueofClintonsexperienceandexpertiseandtheirfacileconflationofthatwithcorruptionisonlyplayinginto
Trumpshands.ThatitwillfalltoClintontotemperherpartysambitionswillbeuncomfortabletowatch,sinceher
willingnesstocompromiseandequivocateispreciselywhatmanyAmericansfindsodistrustful.Andyetshemaysoonbe
allwehavelefttocounterthethreat.Sheneedstograspthelethalityofherfoe,moderatethekindofidentitypoliticsthat
unwittinglyempowershim,makeanunapologeticcasethatexperienceandmoderationarenotvices,addressmuchmore
directlytheanxietiesofthewhiteworkingclassandDemocratsmustlisten.

Moretothepoint,thoseRepublicansdesperatelytryingtousethelong-standingrulesoftheirownnominatingprocessto
thwartthismonsterdeserveourpassionatesupport,notourdisdain.Thisisnotthemomenttoremindthemthatthey
partlybroughtthisonthemselves.Thisisamomenttooffersolidarity,especiallyastheoddsareincreasinglystacked
againstthem.TedCruzandJohnKasichfacetheirdecisivebattleinIndianaonMay3.Buttheyneedtofighton,withany
tacticathand,allthewaytothebitterend.TheRepublicandelegateswhoaretryingtoprotecttheirpartyfromthewhims
ofanoutsiderdemagogueare,atthismoment,doingwhattheyoughttobedoingtopreventcivilandracialunrest,an
internationalconflict,andaconstitutionalcrisis.TheseGOPeliteshaveeveryrighttodeploywhateverrulesorprocedural
roadblockstheycanmuster,andtheyshouldrefusetobeintimidated.

AndiftheyfailinIndianaorCleveland,astheylikelywill,theyneed,quitesimply,todisowntheirpartyscandidate.They
shouldresistanytemptationtoloyallybackthenomineeortositthiselectionout.TheymusttakethefighttoTrumpat
everyopportunity,unitewithDemocratsandIndependentsagainsthim,andbepreparedtosacrificeoneelectioninorder
tosavetheirpartyandtheircountry.

ForTrumpisnotjustawackypoliticianofthefarright,orarivetingtelevisionspectacle,oraTwitterphenomandbizarre
working-classhero.HeisnotjustanothercandidatetobeparsedandanalyzedbyTVpunditsinthesamebreathasall
theothers.Intermsofourliberaldemocracyandconstitutionalorder,Trumpisanextinction-levelevent.Itslongpast
timewestartedtreatinghimassuch.

*ThisarticleappearsintheMay2,2016issueofNewYorkMagazine.

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To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:[THENEW(DON)ANDTHEOLD(JOSH)----BOTHWORTHANOTE][NEW/NYT]ISTRUMP-ISMAHARBINGEROFANEWUS
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WENTTHRUTHISONCEALREADY(in2015)

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Subject:Fwd:[THENEW(DON)ANDTHEOLD(JOSH)----BOTHWORTHANOTE][NEW/NYT]ISTRUMP-ISMAHARBINGEROFANEW
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Date:Fri,May6,2016at10:57AM
Subject:[THENEW(DON)ANDTHEOLD(JOSH)----BOTHWORTHANOTE][NEW/NYT]ISTRUMP-ISMA
HARBINGEROFANEWUSAPPROACHTOFPGENERALLY?......[OLD/BCCARCHIVES]ALASTWORDON
JOSHCAND'REWRITINGUAHISTORY'----WEWENTTHRUTHISONCEALREADY(in2015)
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>

[THENEW.......ISTRUMPSAYINGWHATOB-ADHASALREADYBEENPRACTICING?ISHIL
(WITH'HONEYMOONINGinPARADISE'BERNIEINTOW)VERYFARBEHIND?]

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From:MykolaHryckowian<mykcusur@gmail.com>
Date:Fri,May6,2016at9:39AM
Subject:InDonaldTrumpsRise,AlliesSeeNewAmericanApproach-NYTimes.com
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/05/06/world/europe/donald-trump-foreign-policy.html?_r=0&referer=

InDonaldTrumpsRise,AlliesSee
NewAmericanApproach

ByDAVIDE.SANGERandJIMYARDLEY

MAY5,2016

WASHINGTONAlarmedbyDonaldJ.TrumpsgripontheRepublicanpresidentialnomination,worldleadersarewrestling
withthepossibilitythat,evenifhelosesthegeneralelection,hisascentreflectsastrainofAmericanpublicopinionthatcould
profoundlyreshapethewaytheUnitedStatesaddressessecurityalliancesandtrade.

FromBeijing,TokyoandSeoultotheheadquartersofNATOinBrusselsandthevulnerableBalticnationsalongRussiaswestern
border,officialsandanalystssaidininterviewsthattheysawthesuccessofMr.TrumpsAmericafirstplatformasaharbingerof
pressureforalliestopayupormaketradeconcessionsinreturnformilitaryprotection.

Inmanycapitals,Mr.Trumpsformalandoff-the-cuffforeignpolicyproposalshisthreattopulloutofNATOhismusings
aboutremovingtheUnitedStatesnuclearumbrellaoverJapanandSouthKoreahispledgetoslaphugetradetariffsonChina
areregardedwithamixofalarmandconfusion.AskedonThursdayifBeijingwasconcernedabouttheprospectofaTrump
presidency,theChineseForeignMinistryspokesman,HongLei,replied,WehopetheU.S.peoplefromallwalksoflifewould
viewbilateralrelationsfromareasonableandobjectiveperspective.

StefanoStefanini,aformerrepresentativeofItalytoNATOandformerdiplomaticadvisertotheItalianpresident,putitthisway:
ThereisnoDonaldTrumpcontingencyplan.

ThemistakethatEuropemightmakeistothinktheTrumpphenomenonmightjustfadeaway,Mr.Stefaninisaid.Thesentiments
thatDonaldTrumpisexpressingwillcertainlyinfluencethenextadministrationorthenextCongress.

OfficialsdonotseeMr.TrumpsriseasmerelyanAmericanversionoftheanti-immigrationandisolationistpartiesthathave
pickedupsupportacrossEurope.TheyarefindingsignsoftangiblepoliticalchangeinstatementsbyDemocraticleaders,aswell.

Already,Mr.TrumpsassertivepositionsaboutAmericaninterestshaveledsomeofficialstolookagainatPresidentObamas
recentcritiqueofEuropeanandPersianGulfalliesasfreeriders.Theyhavealsohelpedshedlightabroadonthedomestic
politicalforcesatplayaroundHillaryClintonsdecisiontorenouncehersupportforanewAsiantradedeal.

Some,too,arerevisitingthewordsofRobertM.Gatesinhislastweeksasdefensesecretaryin2011.Mr.Gateswarnedthata
newgenerationofAmericanswithnomemoryoftheColdWarwouldeventuallyaskwhetherNATO,thecentralinstitutionof
Europeansecurity,wasanartifact,likethesinglesegmentoftheBerlinWallthatremainsstandingasareminderofthepast.In
Europelastmonth,Mr.Obamapressedalliestoliveuptocommitmentstospend2percentoftheirgrossdomesticproducton
defense,abenchmarkthatfewhavehit.

Someoftheclaimsmadeduringthecampaignhavebeenemptyorjustwrong,saidPeterWestmacott,aformerBritish
ambassadortotheUnitedStates,wherehewasregardedasoneofthesavviestanalystsofAmerican-Europeanrelations.There
isnobetterIrannucleardeal,andnotmanypeoplethinkitisagoodideaforSouthKoreaorJapantoacquirenuclearweapons.

ButothersshouldgiveusEuropeanspauseforthought,hesaid.NATOmembersneedtoreflectonwhetheritsright,or
sustainable,fortheU.S.topayover70percentofthebillforourcollectivesecurity,orhowtoensurewetakecareofthelosers
aswellasthewinnersinglobalfreetrade.

Clearly,manyEuropeanpolicymakerswerealreadyupsetwithMr.Obamasreluctancetointerveneontheirbehalfinconflicts
wheretheyhavenationalinterests,andwithhisdemandthatEuropeannationsputwhathecalled,inaninterviewwithTheAtlantic,
moreskininthegame.

EuropeanscitetheUnitedStatesreluctancetotaketheleadinoustingCol.Muammarel-QaddafifromLibya,anoperationthat
revealedmajorflawsinNATOoperations.AndtheyareunconvincedbyMr.Obamasinsistencethathemadetherightdecisionin
backingawayfromtheredlinehehaddrawnovertheuseofchemicalweaponsbyPresidentBasharal-AssadofSyria.

Overall,IwouldsaytherearetoomanysignsofAmericanretrenchmentandretreat,saidAndersFoghRasmussen,aformer
primeministerofDenmarkwhowasNATOsecretarygeneraluntil2014.Europeans,hesaid,wouldgenerallypreferanAmerican
presidentwhowilldemonstratedeterminedAmericanleadership,evenas,tomanyanalysts,Mr.Trumpsrisesuggestspressure
forthenationtoturninward.

Mr.RasmussensaidhesawMr.TrumpsdemandsonNATOasanaccelerationoftheObamaadministrationsefforttoencourage
moreburdensharing.Buttheycomewithanisolationisttwist,hesaid.TheAmericafirstterm,embracedbyMr.Trumpina
recentinterviewwithTheNewYorkTimes,goesbacktoamovementledbyCharlesA.Lindberghinthe1930stokeepAmerica
outofwarinEurope.

TheEuropeanreactiontotherevivalofthattermhasbeensosharpthatAmericanmilitaryleaders,whilereluctanttogetinvolved
inthecampaign,havetriedtotakeonMr.Trumpsarguments.

Gen.PhilipM.Breedlove,whojuststeppeddownasthesupremealliedcommanderforEurope,wroteinTheWashingtonPost
thisweekthatwhenheassumedhispositionin2013,hethoughtthatargumentsaboutNATOsutilitywerewithoutmerit,and
therewasnoneedtoengage.Now,hesaid,withoutnamingMr.Trump,hefeltcompelledtoexplaintomyfellowcountrymen
whytheUnitedStatesabsolutelyneedsNATOaNATOthatisstrong,resilientandunited.

FivemembersoftheJointChiefsofStaffmadeasimilarsetofargumentsattheCouncilonForeignRelationsinNewYorkon
Tuesday,alsoavoidinganymentionofMr.Trumpsname.

ButtomanywholiveonRussiasrawborder,especiallyintheBalticnationsinMoscowsshadow,thereisnothingmorepuzzling
thanMr.TrumpsreluctancetocriticizePresidentVladimirV.Putin.HehasoftenspokenadmiringlyofMr.Putin,sayinghe
respectshisstrengthandviewshimassomeonewithwhomhecannegotiate.ToEuropeanears,thatsoundsasifMr.Trumpmay
beplayingintoMr.Putinshands,openingariftwithinNATO.

RussiasenthusiasmaboutTrumpseemstobepredicatedontheassumptionthathemayactuallywithdrawforcesfromEurope,
saidMatthewRojansky,thedirectoroftheKennanInstitute,aWashingtonresearchgroupfocusedonRussia.

ThatisexactlythefearofothersinaregionwhereNATOistheonlybulwarkagainstRussiaandwheresomepeopledoubtthatan
Americanpresidentwouldreallycommitforcestoprotectthemintimesofconflict.

AfterRussiasinterventioninUkraine,alotofLatvianswokeupandsaid,ThankGodweareinNATO,saidLolitaCigane,a
memberoftheLatvianParliament.

InneighboringLithuania,aplaqueatTownHallinthecapital,Vilnius,commemoratesa2002visitbyanotherRepublican,
PresidentGeorgeW.Bush.AnyonewhowouldchooseLithuaniaasanenemyhasalsomadeanenemyoftheUnitedStatesof
America,Mr.Bushsaidthen.Mr.ObamamadeasimilarvowinEstoniaandincreasedNATOspresenceinEasternEuropein
responsetotheRussianthreat,andMr.Trumpspositionfeelslikebackpedalingtopeopleintheregion.

Mr.TrumpsargumentthatSeoulandTokyo,whichhosttensofthousandsofAmericantroops,needtopaymoreorseethe
troopsleavebewilderedofficialsinthosecountries.Japanpaysroughly$2billionayeartowardthetroopshousing,andmilitary
leadersoftensayitwouldbemorecostlyforAmericantaxpayerstobasethosesametroopsinGuamorinthemainlandUnited
States.Moreover,thosebasesarecriticalfordailyintelligencegatheringonChinaandNorthKorea.

Americanmilitaryofficialsanddiplomatsarguethattheseforwarddeployedbasesarecriticaltomaintainingfreedomof
navigationanddeterringNorthKorea.ButMr.TrumpsarguesthattheyareworthitonlyiftheydonotcosttheUnitedStatesa
fortune.

IthinktherealsubliminalmessageTrumpissayingisthis:TheU.S.canaffordtosurviveandprosperwithoutanyalliesifitwas
forcedtocutoffallties,buttheconverseisnttrue,saidChungMinLee,aprofessorofinternationalrelationsatYonseiUniversity
inSeoul.HeaddedthatMr.Trumpwasforcingalliestocomeupwithconvincingelevatorspeechesonthekeybenefitstheybring
totheU.S.,andthusfar,noneofthemhavedoneso.

InChina,afrequenttargetofMr.Trumpscriticism,heiswidelyviewedasapragmatistwhoislesshawkishandlessfocusedon
humanrightsthanMrs.Clintonis.

HisproposaltoimposehightaxesonChinesegoodsreceiveslittleattentionthere,andhistalkofChinasrapingtheUnited
Statesinunfairtradedealshasbeenmetwithshrugs,asiftosaythatchargeisnothingnew.Instead,theconversationfocuseson
Mr.TrumpsbusinesssuccessorhispronouncementsonpreventingforeignMuslimsfromenteringtheUnitedStates,anattitude
thatjibeswiththeantipathyinmuchofChinatowardtheMuslimpopulationinthewesternprovinceofXinjiang.

ManyinChinabelieveapro-businessRepublicanpresidentwilltendtobepragmaticandChina-friendly,ifnotpro-China,said
WangDong,associateprofessorofinternationalstudiesatPekingUniversity.Therefore,manyinChinatendtoviewTrumps
remarksofimposingmorethan30percentoftariffsonChinaasrhetoricalcampaignlanguage.

Mr.TrumpsassertionthatAmericantroopsinSouthKoreaandJapanshouldbesentbacktotheUnitedStatesisinalignment
withofficial,thoughrarelystated,Chinesegoals.Buthissuggestion,laterreversedinpart,thatJapanandSouthKoreashouldbe
abletodeveloptheirownnucleararsenalsalarmedBeijing,especiallythenotionthatJapan,theoccupierofChinainWorldWarII,
wouldbecomeanuclearpower.

DavidE.SangerreportedfromWashingtonandSeoul,SouthKorea,andJimYardleyfromRome.JanePerlezandYufan
HuangcontributedreportingfromBeijing,andRichardMartyn-HemphillfromStockholm.

OLD[AMEMOFROMTHEPAST--GIVESCONTEXTTOJOSHCOHEN---HISTORIAN
EXTRAORDINAIRE]

[ED:AgoodCalifriendjustremindedyourstrulythatJoshCohen'slatestscreedinFPwassimplyatake-offoran
updateofanattackthathehadlaunchedbackinApril2015.[SEEAYTMEMOONTHESUBJECTBELOW
FROMTHEPERIOD]

Apparently,JC'smaximis:"If,atfirst,youdon'tsucceed,try...tryagain"!![HerbRcalledit"thetransformative
powerof'tellingasolidlieoftenenough'....."]

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:<ajmotyl@verizon.net>
Date:Wed,Apr29,2015at8:27AM
Subject:yourpiece
To:waz1@nyu.edu,waz2102@columbia.edu,wzarcusur@gmail.com

isverygood.Butit'llgetlostincyberspace,ifyoudon'tgetitpublishedsomewhere.Sinceit'sessentiallyarebuttaltoJCohen,whydon'tyou
sendit(sansthechatty,Ukr-relatedparts)toForeignPolicy?ThecontactpersonsareChristianCaryl(Christian.Caryl@foreignpolicy.com)
orMaxStrasser(Max.Strasser@foreignpolicy.com).

Best,Oles

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Date:Wed,Apr29,2015at1:13AM
Subject:[BURNINGTHETRULYLATENITEOIL....ORBURNINGATBOTHENDSOFACANDLE]A'YoursTruly'AdvisoryMemoonthe
'OpenLettertoPresidentPoroshenko'
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>

MYK......STARTHERE......PUTUPONFACEBOOK....with'Forwardedmessagetoshowtimesent']


DearFriends:

Lastweek,anitementitled"AnOpenLettertoPresidentPoroshenko",ostensiblyamemomeanttounderlinetherisksthatUkrainiangoverning
circlesweretakingwiththepotentialenactmentofasetof'de-communizationlaws',wasapparentlypostedonthewebsiteofthejournal'Krytyka'
andthenwentviralintheInternet.Judgingfromtherashofmailandthesetof'quickresponses'onthematterthatyourstrulyreceivedinthe
immediateaftermath,itwasnotastretchtoimaginethesaiditemstirringagreatdealofcontroversyandfrayingagoodnumberoflongterm
friendships.

Myinitialreactionwastotaketheissue'instride'or,essentially,toleaveitalone.Forone,accusationsof'extremism'assertedagainstthepresent
UAgovernment,thoughdemocraticallyelectedandavidlycentristinitspolitics(videMinskI&II),werebecominglegend(RThadfourorfivenew
onesaday)thereactionwas:"Whatelsewasnew?"Two,IthoughtthatpreparingforapresentationattheUNconcerningUARada'sexcellent
movetorecognizetheCrimeanTatarsasthe'trueindigenouspopulationofCrimea'wasmoreimportant.Finally,havingbeenaclose
observer/witnessofthelastyearsoftheColdWar,thewholeaffairseemed,atbest,an'awfuldistraction'---givenRU'songoinghybridwaragainst
Ukraineand,atworse,a'diversiya',asmygoodfriendandlegendaryexpertonSoviet'activemeasures',HerbRomerstein,waswonttosay.

Thisweekend,thatinitialreactionwassorelytested,whenoneofthesigners,Dr.John-PaulHimka(ofHolodomor-doubtingfame),decidedtoweb-
postaseconditem,a'follow-up'tothe'OpenLetter',assertingthattheUAgovernmentanditsvarious'informational'organswereopenlyengaged
inabetting,undertheguiseofde-communization',therehabilitationof'pastfascistforcesinUkraine'.

TheepisodewasfollowedinquicksuccessiononMondaybyJoshCohen(anold'Moscow'StateDept.handandlatelyapurveyorofthe
'Sanctionsdon'tworkagainstPutin'sentiment)launchingintoavelvetglovedtiradeofhisownontheselfsameissuethatHimkahadraised.Better
yet,Cohenresolvedtotakemattersacrucialstepfurther,suggesting(asRUforceswerebuffingupontheUAborderonceagain)thatthose
'darnedRUsocialmediatrolls'whowerecallingthepresentKyivgovernment'Nazis'mightjusthaveapointafterall.

Thementionedtandemprovokedan'OHBOY'momentofthehighestdegreeinaword,Iwas'furious'.Istillhadtheproblemofhavingtoprepare
forotherthingsinthenextdayortwo,soIknewthatwritingawellpreparedtreatiseonthesubjectwithsixcitationsperparagraphwasoutofthe
question.Butanicememo(withapossibleSwift-ianbitof'tongueandcheek'thrownin)tothoseonthe'bccinfochain'whohadthetimeorwere
braveenoughtoproperlychallengethe'writers/signersoftheOpenLetter'(andthe'increasinglyaccusatory'follow-uppieces)mightjustbethe
ticket.

Incomposingsuchanadvisorymemo,Idecidedthatperhapsthebestplacetostartwouldbetopointoutthesomeofthepitfallstoavoid(when
engagingthe'letter-signers'indiscussion).Theveryfirstsuchpitfallwouldbethetemptationtolashoutatanyoneinthegroupwithpersonal
accusations(likethepotshotItookatJ-PHimkainthepreviousparagraph).Lordknowsthatsuchatemptationwouldnotbecompletelywithout
merit.Acoupleofindividualsonthe'signerslist'havereputationsforengaginginscholarshipnotveryfarremovedfromthatofDougTottle,the
'famed'pro-SovietpamphleteerduringthelateColdWarperiodandauthoroftheeverilluminating"Fraud,FamineandFascism:TheUkrainian
GenocideMythfromHitlertoHarvard"(aworkwhichwasincidentallyfullofcitations,allunfortunatelytakendirectlyfrompamphletswrittenby
operativesinLubyanka).AndthereappeartobeacoupleofsignerswhoopenlysympathizedwiththeSovietUnionbackinheydaysoftheCold
War.Nevertheless,thereremainsalargehostofgood,honestscholarswhosignedbecausetheygenuinelyfeltthatthe'decommunizationprocess',
asenvisionedbytheratified(thoughasyetunsigned)legislation,mighthavelongtermdeleteriouseffectsonfreedomofexpressionandbelief.
Hence,anyargument,tobetakenseriously,wouldhavetoaddresstheirfears.Ineffect,theresponsewouldhavetodealwiththesubstanceofthe
issuesraisedintheletter(ratherthanwiththecredentials/characterofthesigners).

Inaddressingthesubstanceofletter,anothermajortemptation,andthereforepitfall,wouldbetoimitatethestructure/order/logicoftheletteritself.
Forreasonsknownonlytothefinaleditorsofthemissive,thefirstparagraphleadswithanattackontheUAgovernment'sallegedattemptto
rehabilitateallegedcrypto-fascistoroutrightfascistoutfitsspawnedduringtheWWII-ie-theUAnationalistformationsknownasOUN(the
OrganizationofUkrainianNationalists)andUPA(theUkrainianInsurgentArmy).Onlyinthesecondparagraphdoestheletterfinallyspeaktothe
ostensibleissueonhand-ie-'decommunizationproper'anditssupposedperilstoafreesociety.Again,thetemptation(byresponders)tofollow
suitemightproveoverwhelmingthepatrioticurgetodefendtheEuro-MaidanborngovernmentortheoldColdWarrior'surgetoportraytheattack
onOUN-UPAaspartandparcelofaseventyyearSovietlaunchedcampaigntobesmirchamuchfeared'UAnationalliberationmovement'might
trumpallotherconsiderations.Tosuccumbtotheurgewouldbeafundamentalmistake.Whateverelseanyonemightsay,theprimarytaskofthe
'decommunizationlaws'istoridtheUAsociety/stateofthe'symbols/iconsofcommunistrule'.Thisissueshouldremainthecentralfocus.

Insayingthatthecentralfocusofthedebateshouldbe"theproprietyofremovingthesymbols/iconsofcommunistruleinUkraine",afinal
potentialpitfallsurfaces.Thepitfallhastodowithopeningupanideologicaldebate,orbetteryet,anideologicaldivide,betweentheleftandthe
right.Theremightbeatemptationonthepartofagoodnumberofresponderstogetintoa'globaldiscussion'withthesignersaboutthegeneral
merits/demeritsofcommunism.Theresulting'intellectualfoodfight'wouldpitthosewhoconsidercommunismasatotalitarianideainwhosename
massmurderhasbeenrepeatedlycommittedvs.thosewhowouldbelievethat'Communism'wassimply'utopiagonewrong'(theirownyouthful
idealism'dissipated'),unliketheunadulteratedevilof'Nazism'.Thatframeworkisonetobeavoidedwhentryingtounderstandcommunistrulein
Ukraine.

InUkraine,tounderstand'theeraofcommunistrule',onemustusetheproperwordfortheparticularmanifestationofcommunisminthecountry
thetermis"Bolshevism".

Oncethetwosidesmightagreetodiscuss'BolshevikruleinUkraine'andthepropriety[orimpropriety]ofremovingbothitsiconsanditsmemory
fromtheUkrainelandscapeandpsyche,muchcouldbeenaccomplished.Andthathasalottodowithacceptinganothertermintheequationas
well:"occupation".

Why?Well,letusrememberthatBolshevism,amoreextremeversionofRussianMarxism(orRU'stakeonCommunism),wasnotindigenousto
Ukraine.Forbetterorworse,Ukrainehaditsowndeepandrichtraditionofstrivingforsocialjustice-ie-Socialism(ithappenswhenyougetde-
serfedaslateas1861)!!Thespectrumrangedfromtheanarchist(today,libertarian)socialismofMakhnothruthepeasantlovingSocial
RevolutionaryanticsofM.Hrushevskytothemoderate(SocialDemocratic)MarxismofPetlura-VinnychenkoandontonativeUkrainian
CommunismembodiedintheUKP/Borobists.Infact,thelastoftheUkrainiangovernmentsduringUkraine'sshort-livedindependenceinthepost
WWIperiod[1918-1921]wasrunbyaallianceofthesefeudingleftwingUkrainianparties.BolshevismhadnorealrootsinUkraine,evenasittried
tosetupa"pre-DNR"DNRsituationinKharkivin1919-21.OnlywhentheRedArmy(aidedbyaWhiteRUarmythatfoughtit,buttheUkrainians
more)arrivedfromRussia,didtheweakened(bybothwhiteandredRUforces)Ukrainianindependententityfinallyfailandgivewayto'Bolshevik
RuleinUA'!Inaword,asstatedbefore,'occupation'occurred!

Intheearlytwentiesbecauseofthepainsofearlygrowth,Bolshevikruleor'occupation'ofUkrainedifferedlittlefrom'other'colonialoccupations'
[Note:yes,evensocialistscouldengagein'dreamsofimperium',givenitsnon-monetaryrewards].Infact,becauseofthegrowingpains,the
[Kremlinbased]BolsheviksmadethemistakeoflettingthoseUkrainianswhoprovedloyaltotheirrulehaveabitoflee-way[rememberthatNEP
wasnotsimplyabouteconomics].ThatmistakewasnotedbyStalinwhenhecametopower.Heck,thoseUA'loyalists',UkrainianBolshevikslike
KhyvlovyandSkrypnyk,seemedtohaveamindoftheirown(justlikealltheircompatriots).Atthatpoint,theoccupationturnedintosomething
differentinthelatetwenties,itturned'genocidal'.

Again,whywouldsomeonehavetherighttomakethatassertion?BecausetheFatheroftheterm'genocide',RafaelLemkin,madetheverypointin
1953.HesuccinctlyelaboratedontheBolshevikfourstepplanforUkraineandUkrainians:[1]firsttakeouthead---theintelligentsia,NEP-men,rich
peasants[2]thentakeouttheheart---theclergy[3]thenaimforthebody..themiddleandpoorpeasants[4]finally----takeoutthenativeloyalists
andreplacethemwithyourownfolks.

Intheearly1930's,'[RUCommunist]BolshevikruleinUkraine'meant"genocide"(nation-killing).Admittedly,thatchangedabitwhenStalinandhis
politicaldescendantscametotwofurtherconclusions.OnewasthatthereweretoomanyofthosedarnedUkrainianstokilltheotherwasthatthe
Ukrainians,'nowhousebroken',mightserveasusefulfodderagainsttheenemiesoftheCCCP.Andsoitwentforatime.InWWII,Ukrainianswere
usedtograbpartsofFinlandin1940,defendStalingradagainsttheNazis(thatacesniperwasaUke)in1942-3,liberateAuschwitzinJan1945and
makearunonBerlininApril-May1945.Duringtheearly(nearhot)ColdWar,theUkrainiansprovedusefulNCOsinthegloriousSovietArmy
facingthosedamnedYankeeimperialistsinFuldaGap.Indeed,asareward,anewUAloyalist,PetroShelestwasgivenasolidseatatthePolitburo
tableintheKremlin.

Yet,forallhisloyalty,whentheoldUABolshevik(ararebreed)decidedtotalkabouthis"SovietUkraine"in1970-2,hebroughtdownhellon
himselfandhiscountrymen.BolshevikruleinUkraineduringthesecondhalfofBrezhnev's'eraofstagnation'turnedto'ethnocide'(theUA
dissidentStephanKhmaracoinedtheterm)replacingShelestwithacompletetoadynamedScherbytsky,theKremlinengagedin'immersed
RussificationofUkraine'throughoutthelate1970sand1980s.By1989-90,whenIvisitedLviv(thecityofmyancestors)forthefirsttime,eventhat
bastion'ofallthingsUkrainian'hadverydistinctnon-Ukrainianaspectstoit.

Ineffect,Bolshevik[RedRussian,tobeblunt]ruleinUkraineinvolvedphysical(genocidal)andspiritual(ethnocidal)'nationbreaking'(ofthe
worsesort).Andtheeffectsofthatwerenoteasytostop(orreverse).EvenafterUkrainereneweditsindependencein1991,thedamagedoneto
theUkrainianpsychewasevidentateveryturn.Throughoutthe1990s,manyUkrainianslivedasiftheywerestillintheSovietUniontheysaidas
much.Betteryet,thegreatawakeningin2004-5,theOrangeRevolution,didrelativelylittletochangetheunderlyingperception.ZbigBrzezinski,
alwayswonderfullyblunt,atoneofourUAQuestRoundtablesafterYushchenkoassumedthepresidency(anddeclaredforthe'Euro-Atlantic'
path),tooktheVAYtotaskforwanting"intoEUandNATO"whiletoleratingabigLeninstatuteatamajorUAairbaseinNorthUkraine(near
Desna).

ForUkrainewatchers,itwasonlywiththecomingoftheEuro-Maidan(andeventuallywiththenewgovernmentitspawnedinearly2014),that'the
senseof'occupation'begantotrulydisperse.Andironically,whetherthesigners/writersoftheOpenLetterwanttoadmititornot,theprocesswas
bestsymbolizedbythetakeoveroftheofficesofpower(controlledbytheproRURegionsfolk),theclosingdownofthevariousCommunistparty
headquarters,the'demont'ofLeninstatueslargeorsmallthroughoutCentral/EastUkraineandtheburningofStalinphotosinplaceslike
Zaporizhe!TheBolshevik'occupation'wasfinallyfullyendinginUkraine.TheRedparthaddisappearedin1991theRUpartwasdisappearing
rightbeforeeveryone'sMaidanenlightenedeyes!!

Finally,guesswhobestsensedwhattheMaidanandspinoffactivityactuallymeantandcontinuestomean?ThecastofcharactersfromKremlin
centralcastingthatwehavecometoloveandknowinthelastyear:Ol'Strelkov-GirkinofDNRfameandPutin'smainideologueAlexanderDugin.
Hence,despitebeingrightofAttilatheHun(hatetoinsultAttilathatway)intheirnationalchauvinism,racism,anti-semitismandhomophobia,the
twonamedhavecontinuedtolamenttheremovalofsuchlefticonographyasthestatutesofLeninandthevarious'hammer&sickle'emblems
embeddedineverymajordoorofeveryofficialbuildinginUkraine.Theyareinrealitylamentingthe'endoftheoccupation'.

Armedwiththe'occupation'paradigm,aresponderwouldbereadytobringsometoughquestionstotheattentionthe'writers/signersoftheOpen
Letter'(youknewwewouldcomebacktothat).

Perhapstheveryfirstsetofquestionsonemightaskthe'letter-signers'wouldbethefollowing:Indefendingtherightofindividualstobelievethat
CommunistruleinUkrainehada'goodside',whichaspectofthatruleshouldusedasanexample?ThePeriodofGenocide?Ortheperiodof
Ethnocide?OrthetimeinbetweenwhenUkrainianswereusedtoinvadeFinland?

Inrapidsuccession,onemightfollowupbyasking:Don'tyoufinditjustalittledisturbingthatyouarelamentingtheprohibitionoftheverysame
symbolsasthelikesofGirkinandDugin?Anddon'tyoufindittheleastbituncomfortabletobeerstwhilebedfellowswithfolkswhowouldhave
no'truck'withyouoryourbeliefs?

Asatopper,onemightleaveourdear'OpenLetter-men'withonefurtherquestiontocontemplate:TheremayhavebeenhonestBolsheviksin
Ukrainebetween1917and1991,butdidyouevernoticethattheyusuallyendedupinagraveorinexile(videKhvylovy,Skrypnyk,Shelest)right
alongsidethose'damnedfascist'Banderites'?

Oncetherespondershadcompletedtheirprimarytask,itistruethatthebraveronesmightpushtheenvelopeandexploretwofurtherquestions
(onesIsuggestedwerenotatheheartofthe'decommunization'issueandcouldbeleftforalaterdebate).ThefirstwouldbeaboutthoseWWII
formationsthatmostpostMaidanUkrainians,ofwhateverideologicalpersuasions(mostlycentrist),ethnicbackgroundorreligiouspersuasion
havecometoseeas'thevanguardofthenationalliberationstruggle'butwhichtheCCCPhadforseventyyearslabelled'fascist'---withbatchesof
documentssentWestevenduringtheColdWartoprovethepoint.

HavinghadthepleasureofknowingtwoindividualswhohavehadaccesstooldSovietarchives,thealreadymentionedHerbRomersteinandDr.
YuriShapovaloftheUkrainianAcademyofSciences,IhaveheardeachindicatethattheRussianDezinformapparathadsobadlymangledthe
reputationoftheoutfitslikeOUNandUPAthat'theirmotherswouldnotrecognizethem'.GiventhatthepostMaidanperiodhadfinallygiven
historiansaccesstomostoftheSovietfilesonthetwooutfits,wouldn'titmakesensetoactuallytorunacoupleofseriousscholarlyconferences
beforemakingafinalhistoricaljudgementontheentitiesinquestion?

Thesecondwouldbeatouchierquestionandwouldtrulyrequirecourage.ItwouldcanvasthemajorityoffinescholarswhosignedontheOpen
letterwhethertheythoughtHolodomor-doubtingandoverlycloserelationswiththeoldCCCP(substituteHolocaustandNaziGermanyfor
comparison)disqualifiedsomeonefrombeingtakenseriouslyasascholar.

ThoughtsOutofaSeason!


WAZ

PS:Iknowitslateatnight....butIamstilltryingtowrapmyheadaroundthefactthatsomany85pound'BanderaBewegung'typescomingoutof
thevariousGermanKZaspoliticalprisonersin1945havemorphedintoNaziicons70yearslater!!Idon'tgetit!!Itmustsimplybethelackof
sleep!!

2016PS[AnImportantPersonalAdd-on]:Oneofthose85pounderswasmybelovedfather-in-law,VolodymyrKostyk---comingout
ofMauthausenII(thedeathcampintheM-Gcomplex)

 From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 05/01/201612:20:57PM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:[ACASEOF"VLAD-O-RAMAMEETSDON-O-RAMA"???]Russians'barrelroll'overanotherU.S.AirForceplanePutin'sBikersTrying
Subject:
toGetIntoPolandAgain"DonaldTrump'sforeignpolicyspeechearnspraiseinRussia"NickBurnsinACReviewsDT'sForeig

From:wolodymyrzarycky[mailto:wzarcusur@gmail.com]
Sent:Friday,April29,20167:24PM
Subject:[ACASEOF"VLAD-O-RAMAMEETSDON-O-RAMA"???]Russians'barrelroll'overanotherU.S.AirForceplanePutin'sBikers
TryingtoGetIntoPolandAgain"DonaldTrump'sforeignpolicyspeechearnspraiseinRussia"NickBurnsinACReviewsDT'sForeign...

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>
Date:Fri,Apr29,2016at10:15PM
Subject:[ACASEOF"VLAD-O-RAMAMEETSDON-O-RAMA"???]Russians'barrelroll'overanotherU.S.AirForce
plane
Putin'sBikersTryingtoGetIntoPolandAgain"DonaldTrump'sforeignpolicyspeechearnspraiseinRussia"NickBurnsin
ACReviewsDT'sForeignPolicyAndFindsitWanting
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:VRT
Date:Fri,Apr29,2016at7:37PM
Subject:NotGood:Russians'barrelroll'overanotherU.S.AirForceplane
To:wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>

http://www.cnn.com/2016/04/29/politics/russians-barrel-roll-air-force-plane/

Russians'barrelroll'overanotherU.S.AirForceplane

TheU.S.considersthisaveryunsafeaerialmaneuverandisexpectedtovoiceitsconcernstotheRussians

ThisisthesecondbarrelrollmaneuveroveraU.S.aircraftbytheRussiansthismonth

Washington(CNN)ARussianSU-27conducteda"barrelroll"FridayoverthetopofaU.S.AirForceRC-135which
wasflyingareconnaissancemissionininternationalairspaceabovetheBalticSea,theDefenseDepartmentsaid.

TheRussianSU-27approachedalongsidewithin25feetoftheU.S.aircraftandthenflewinvertedoverthetopof
theplanetotheotherside,Lt.Col.MichelleL.Baldanza,aU.S.Armyspokesperson,saidinastatement.

"TheSU-27interceptedtheU.S.aircraftflyingaroutinerouteathighrateofspeedfromthesidethenproceeded
toperformanaggressivemaneuverthatposedathreattothesafetyoftheU.S.aircrewintheRC-135,"Baldanza
said.
READ:WhatcanU.S.doaboutRussianjetsbuzzingmilitary?

TheU.S.considersthisaveryunsafeaerialmaneuverandisexpectedtovoiceitsconcernstotheRussians,a
U.S.defenseofficialtoldCNN.

ThisisthesecondbarrelrollmaneuveroveraU.S.aircraftbytheRussiansthismonth.
OnApril14,aRussianjet"performederraticandaggressivemaneuvers"asitflew
within50feetofaU.S.aircraft'swingtip,DannyHernandez,aspokesmanforU.S.
EuropeanCommand,saidinaresponsetoaquestionfromCNN.

READ:Russiadenieswrongdoingafterjetbarrelroll

Inthatincident,anRC-135aircraftalsowasinterceptedbyaRussianSU-27.The
RussianSU-27beganthebarrelrollfromtheleftsideoftheU.S.RC-135andwent
AU.S.AirForceRC-135 overthetopofittoendontherightsideoftheaircraft,U.S.EuropeanCommandsaid.

ThisalsocomesaftertwoencountersearlierthismonthintheBalticSeabetweenthe
NavymissiledestroyerUSSDonaldCookandtwoRussianjets.Inoneofthose
incidents,aRussianjetflewwithin75feetoftheship.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:ForeignPolicy<fp@foreignpolicy.com>
Date:Fri,Apr29,2016at5:36PM
Subject:Editors'Picks:Putin'sAngels[ED.....TryingtoIntimidatePolandAgain]
To:waz2102@columbia.edu

Ifyouhaveproblemsviewingthisemail,viewitinabrowser.

EDITORS'

PICKS

Friday,April29

WelcometoEditors'Picks,FP'sround-upoftheday'sbest
articles.
Today,welookatRussia'sstate-sponsoredbikergang,

4 PUTIN'SANGELS:TheRussianbikergang,theNight

Wolves,wereblockedfromridingthroughPolandto
celebratetheSovietUnion'sWorldWarIIvictoryforthe
secondyearinarow,writesFP'sMeganAlpert:Read
more

Pro-Putin Biker Gang Still Cant Get

Into Poland [ED: Though they keep
trying]

CheckinlaterwhenFPcontributorMichaelMorananalyzeshow
WashingtonsetupPuertoRicotofail,andotherdeveloping
storiesfromaroundtheworld.
 ForeignPolicyMagazine
editorspicks@foreignpolicy.com

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:hunter@
Date:Fri,Apr29,2016at3:10PM
Subject:"DonaldTrump'sforeignpolicyspeechearnspraiseinRussia"[ED:HowareUkrainianssupposedto
react???]
To:wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>

http://www.cnn.com/2016/04/28/politics/donald-trump-russia-putin/

DonaldTrump'sforeignpolicyspeechearnspraise
inRussia
ByFredPleitgen,CNN

Storyhighlights Moscow(CNN)AfterDonald
Trumpgaveamuch-anticipated
SomeanalyststhinkTrumpwouldhaveagoodworkingrelationshipwithPutin

foreignpolicyspeechWednesday,
someofthemostglowingreviews
Butothersaren'tsosure
thathereceivedwerefroma
placethatdoesn'toftenseeeye-
to-eyewithAmericanpoliticians.

Trump'sspeechwasmorethanwell-receivedinRussia.InMoscow'sRedSquare,passersbyspeakingto
CNNpraisedtheNewYorktycoon.AndRussianpoliticiansfromPresidentVladimirPutinondownhave
beenquotedsayingfavorablethingsabouttheGOPpresidentialfront-runner.

PutinrecentlycalledTrump"abrighterperson,talentedwithoutadoubt."Trumpreturnedthecompliment
saying:"Ilikehimbecausehecalledmeagenius.HesaidTrumpistherealleader."
AndinhisaddressinWashingtonWednesday,thebillionairebusinessmanexpressedhopeaboutthepotential
forimprovementinAmerican-Russianrelations.

"IbelieveaneasingoftensionsandimprovedrelationswithRussia,fromapositionofstrengthonly,is
possible,"Trumpsaid,thoughheaddedthattheUnitedStatesshouldbewillingtowalkawayfromthe
negotiatingtableifRussiaistoodemanding.

ThemessageisonethatiswarmlyreceivedonthestreetsofMoscow.

"ThekeythingabouthimishiswillingnessforabreakthroughinrelationswithRussia,maybetheywon'tget
closerbutatleasttherewillbeadialogue,"saidonemansaidfeetawayfromtheKremlin.

Anotheradded,"Firstofall,TrumpisapositiveguyandhespokeaboutPutininagoodway.Hewants
positivechangesinAmerica."
ManybelievethatTrumpandPutinwouldgetalongwellonapersonallevelandthatalonecouldhelpease
tensionsbetweentheU.S.andRussia,whichhavebeenbuildingupoverthepastyears.

FyodorLukyanov,theheadoftheRussianCouncilonForeignandDefensePolicy,saidhebelievesVladimir
PutinwouldlikeTrump'sstyle.

"Helikespeoplewhoarefrank,openandwhodisregardpoliticalcorrectness.Andthatisexactlythecase
withMr.Trump,"LukyanovtoldCNN.

Butofcourseabromancebetweenpoliticalleadersisnotenoughtoimprovebilateralrelations.
TheU.SandRussiahavehadmassivedisagreementsoverUkraineinparticular,whereAmericaaccuses
Russiaoffunding,equippingandprovidingcombatsupporttoseparatistrebelsanddemandsthereturnof
Crimea,whichRussiaannexedin2014.

Russia,foritspart,wantssanctionsleviedagainstitbytheinternationalcommunitybecauseofitsmeddling
inUkraine'saffairstobecanceled.

WhenTrumpspokeaboutimprovingrelationswithRussiahedidn'tmentionUkraineorCrimea.Top-level
RussianpoliticianshavecalledTrumpthemost"pragmatic"ofthecandidatesfortheWhiteHouse.

"HeexpressesreadinesstocometotermswiththeRussianPresidentinsteadofmakingconflictswithus,the
waytoday'sadministrationisdoing,"AlexeyPushkov,headoftheforeignrelationscommitteeofRussian
parliamentsaid,accordingtotheTassnewsagency.

SowouldaTrumppresidencyreallymeanbetterrelationsbetweentheU.S.andRussia?

Lukyanovdoubtsit.

"Whoeverwillbepresident,theexpertisewillbemadebythesamepeople.Andtheconclusionispretty
gloomy,"hesaid."There'snowaytofindpeopleinsideAmerica'sintellectualcommunitywhoarereadyto
takeonamoresaysympatheticpositiontowardsRussia."

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:AtlanticCouncilPressOffice<press@atlanticcouncil.org>
Date:Fri,Apr29,2016at9:33AM
Subject:NewAtlanticist:DonaldTrump:A'Dangerous'Man[ED:TheAuthorisnotexactlyaSanders-Clinton
supporter....buttakesapartDT'sforeignpolicypositionplankbyplank.....particularlytalkofapotentialententewith
RU.......hmmm???]
To:waz2102@columbia.edu

Toviewthisemailasawebpage,gohere.

 SUBSCRIBE April29,2016

NEWSMAKERINTERVIEW

DonaldTrump:A'Dangerous'
Man

AshishKumarSen/ @AshishSen

Inhisforeignpolicyaddress,Donald
Trumpputforthideasthatare"dangerous
toAmericaandwhathisspeechrevealed
tomeisthatheisadangerousleader,"R.
NicholasBurns,anAtlanticCouncilboard
directorwhoservedastheState
Department'snumberthreeofficialinthe
GeorgeW.Bushadministration,saidina
searingcritiqueoftheRepublican
presidentialfrontrunner'sApril27speech.
READMORE

SHARE


Copyright2016,AtlanticCouncil

Thisemailwassentby:AtlanticCouncil

 From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 05/06/201609:36:48AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:[THENEW(DON)ANDTHEOLD(JOSH)----BOTHWORTHANOTE][NEW/NYT]ISTRUMP-ISMAHARBINGEROFANEWUS
Subject: APPROACHTOFPGENERALLY?......[OLD/BCCARCHIVES]ALASTWORDONJOSHCAND'REWRITINGUAHISTORY'----WE
WENTTHRUTHISONCEALREADY(in2015)

From:wolodymyrzarycky[mailto:wzarcusur@gmail.com]
Sent:Friday,May06,20168:14AM
Subject:Fwd:[THENEW(DON)ANDTHEOLD(JOSH)----BOTHWORTHANOTE][NEW/NYT]ISTRUMP-ISMAHARBINGEROFANEW
USAPPROACHTOFPGENERALLY?......[OLD/BCCARCHIVES]ALASTWORDONJOSHCAND'REWRITINGUAHISTORY'----WEWENT
THRUTHISONCEALREADY(in2015)

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>
Date:Fri,May6,2016at10:57AM
Subject:[THENEW(DON)ANDTHEOLD(JOSH)----BOTHWORTHANOTE][NEW/NYT]ISTRUMP-ISMA
HARBINGEROFANEWUSAPPROACHTOFPGENERALLY?......[OLD/BCCARCHIVES]ALASTWORDON
JOSHCAND'REWRITINGUAHISTORY'----WEWENTTHRUTHISONCEALREADY(in2015)
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>

[THENEW.......ISTRUMPSAYINGWHATOB-ADHASALREADYBEENPRACTICING?ISHIL
(WITH'HONEYMOONINGinPARADISE'BERNIEINTOW)VERYFARBEHIND?]

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:MykolaHryckowian<mykcusur@gmail.com>
Date:Fri,May6,2016at9:39AM
Subject:InDonaldTrumpsRise,AlliesSeeNewAmericanApproach-NYTimes.com
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2016/05/06/world/europe/donald-trump-foreign-policy.html?_r=0&referer=

InDonaldTrumpsRise,AlliesSee
NewAmericanApproach

ByDAVIDE.SANGERandJIMYARDLEY

MAY5,2016

WASHINGTONAlarmedbyDonaldJ.TrumpsgripontheRepublicanpresidentialnomination,worldleadersarewrestling
withthepossibilitythat,evenifhelosesthegeneralelection,hisascentreflectsastrainofAmericanpublicopinionthatcould
profoundlyreshapethewaytheUnitedStatesaddressessecurityalliancesandtrade.

FromBeijing,TokyoandSeoultotheheadquartersofNATOinBrusselsandthevulnerableBalticnationsalongRussiaswestern
border,officialsandanalystssaidininterviewsthattheysawthesuccessofMr.TrumpsAmericafirstplatformasaharbingerof
pressureforalliestopayupormaketradeconcessionsinreturnformilitaryprotection.

Inmanycapitals,Mr.Trumpsformalandoff-the-cuffforeignpolicyproposalshisthreattopulloutofNATOhismusings
aboutremovingtheUnitedStatesnuclearumbrellaoverJapanandSouthKoreahispledgetoslaphugetradetariffsonChina
areregardedwithamixofalarmandconfusion.AskedonThursdayifBeijingwasconcernedabouttheprospectofaTrump
presidency,theChineseForeignMinistryspokesman,HongLei,replied,WehopetheU.S.peoplefromallwalksoflifewould
viewbilateralrelationsfromareasonableandobjectiveperspective.

StefanoStefanini,aformerrepresentativeofItalytoNATOandformerdiplomaticadvisertotheItalianpresident,putitthisway:
ThereisnoDonaldTrumpcontingencyplan.

ThemistakethatEuropemightmakeistothinktheTrumpphenomenonmightjustfadeaway,Mr.Stefaninisaid.Thesentiments
thatDonaldTrumpisexpressingwillcertainlyinfluencethenextadministrationorthenextCongress.

OfficialsdonotseeMr.TrumpsriseasmerelyanAmericanversionoftheanti-immigrationandisolationistpartiesthathave
pickedupsupportacrossEurope.TheyarefindingsignsoftangiblepoliticalchangeinstatementsbyDemocraticleaders,aswell.

Already,Mr.TrumpsassertivepositionsaboutAmericaninterestshaveledsomeofficialstolookagainatPresidentObamas
recentcritiqueofEuropeanandPersianGulfalliesasfreeriders.Theyhavealsohelpedshedlightabroadonthedomestic
politicalforcesatplayaroundHillaryClintonsdecisiontorenouncehersupportforanewAsiantradedeal.

Some,too,arerevisitingthewordsofRobertM.Gatesinhislastweeksasdefensesecretaryin2011.Mr.Gateswarnedthata
newgenerationofAmericanswithnomemoryoftheColdWarwouldeventuallyaskwhetherNATO,thecentralinstitutionof
Europeansecurity,wasanartifact,likethesinglesegmentoftheBerlinWallthatremainsstandingasareminderofthepast.In
Europelastmonth,Mr.Obamapressedalliestoliveuptocommitmentstospend2percentoftheirgrossdomesticproducton
defense,abenchmarkthatfewhavehit.

Someoftheclaimsmadeduringthecampaignhavebeenemptyorjustwrong,saidPeterWestmacott,aformerBritish
ambassadortotheUnitedStates,wherehewasregardedasoneofthesavviestanalystsofAmerican-Europeanrelations.There
isnobetterIrannucleardeal,andnotmanypeoplethinkitisagoodideaforSouthKoreaorJapantoacquirenuclearweapons.

ButothersshouldgiveusEuropeanspauseforthought,hesaid.NATOmembersneedtoreflectonwhetheritsright,or
sustainable,fortheU.S.topayover70percentofthebillforourcollectivesecurity,orhowtoensurewetakecareofthelosers
aswellasthewinnersinglobalfreetrade.

Clearly,manyEuropeanpolicymakerswerealreadyupsetwithMr.Obamasreluctancetointerveneontheirbehalfinconflicts
wheretheyhavenationalinterests,andwithhisdemandthatEuropeannationsputwhathecalled,inaninterviewwithTheAtlantic,
moreskininthegame.

EuropeanscitetheUnitedStatesreluctancetotaketheleadinoustingCol.Muammarel-QaddafifromLibya,anoperationthat
revealedmajorflawsinNATOoperations.AndtheyareunconvincedbyMr.Obamasinsistencethathemadetherightdecisionin
backingawayfromtheredlinehehaddrawnovertheuseofchemicalweaponsbyPresidentBasharal-AssadofSyria.

Overall,IwouldsaytherearetoomanysignsofAmericanretrenchmentandretreat,saidAndersFoghRasmussen,aformer
primeministerofDenmarkwhowasNATOsecretarygeneraluntil2014.Europeans,hesaid,wouldgenerallypreferanAmerican
presidentwhowilldemonstratedeterminedAmericanleadership,evenas,tomanyanalysts,Mr.Trumpsrisesuggestspressure
forthenationtoturninward.

Mr.RasmussensaidhesawMr.TrumpsdemandsonNATOasanaccelerationoftheObamaadministrationsefforttoencourage
moreburdensharing.Buttheycomewithanisolationisttwist,hesaid.TheAmericafirstterm,embracedbyMr.Trumpina
recentinterviewwithTheNewYorkTimes,goesbacktoamovementledbyCharlesA.Lindberghinthe1930stokeepAmerica
outofwarinEurope.

TheEuropeanreactiontotherevivalofthattermhasbeensosharpthatAmericanmilitaryleaders,whilereluctanttogetinvolved
inthecampaign,havetriedtotakeonMr.Trumpsarguments.

Gen.PhilipM.Breedlove,whojuststeppeddownasthesupremealliedcommanderforEurope,wroteinTheWashingtonPost
thisweekthatwhenheassumedhispositionin2013,hethoughtthatargumentsaboutNATOsutilitywerewithoutmerit,and
therewasnoneedtoengage.Now,hesaid,withoutnamingMr.Trump,hefeltcompelledtoexplaintomyfellowcountrymen
whytheUnitedStatesabsolutelyneedsNATOaNATOthatisstrong,resilientandunited.

FivemembersoftheJointChiefsofStaffmadeasimilarsetofargumentsattheCouncilonForeignRelationsinNewYorkon
Tuesday,alsoavoidinganymentionofMr.Trumpsname.

ButtomanywholiveonRussiasrawborder,especiallyintheBalticnationsinMoscowsshadow,thereisnothingmorepuzzling
thanMr.TrumpsreluctancetocriticizePresidentVladimirV.Putin.HehasoftenspokenadmiringlyofMr.Putin,sayinghe
respectshisstrengthandviewshimassomeonewithwhomhecannegotiate.ToEuropeanears,thatsoundsasifMr.Trumpmay
beplayingintoMr.Putinshands,openingariftwithinNATO.

RussiasenthusiasmaboutTrumpseemstobepredicatedontheassumptionthathemayactuallywithdrawforcesfromEurope,
saidMatthewRojansky,thedirectoroftheKennanInstitute,aWashingtonresearchgroupfocusedonRussia.

ThatisexactlythefearofothersinaregionwhereNATOistheonlybulwarkagainstRussiaandwheresomepeopledoubtthatan
Americanpresidentwouldreallycommitforcestoprotectthemintimesofconflict.

AfterRussiasinterventioninUkraine,alotofLatvianswokeupandsaid,ThankGodweareinNATO,saidLolitaCigane,a
memberoftheLatvianParliament.

InneighboringLithuania,aplaqueatTownHallinthecapital,Vilnius,commemoratesa2002visitbyanotherRepublican,
PresidentGeorgeW.Bush.AnyonewhowouldchooseLithuaniaasanenemyhasalsomadeanenemyoftheUnitedStatesof
America,Mr.Bushsaidthen.Mr.ObamamadeasimilarvowinEstoniaandincreasedNATOspresenceinEasternEuropein
responsetotheRussianthreat,andMr.Trumpspositionfeelslikebackpedalingtopeopleintheregion.

Mr.TrumpsargumentthatSeoulandTokyo,whichhosttensofthousandsofAmericantroops,needtopaymoreorseethe
troopsleavebewilderedofficialsinthosecountries.Japanpaysroughly$2billionayeartowardthetroopshousing,andmilitary
leadersoftensayitwouldbemorecostlyforAmericantaxpayerstobasethosesametroopsinGuamorinthemainlandUnited
States.Moreover,thosebasesarecriticalfordailyintelligencegatheringonChinaandNorthKorea.

Americanmilitaryofficialsanddiplomatsarguethattheseforwarddeployedbasesarecriticaltomaintainingfreedomof
navigationanddeterringNorthKorea.ButMr.TrumpsarguesthattheyareworthitonlyiftheydonotcosttheUnitedStatesa
fortune.

IthinktherealsubliminalmessageTrumpissayingisthis:TheU.S.canaffordtosurviveandprosperwithoutanyalliesifitwas
forcedtocutoffallties,buttheconverseisnttrue,saidChungMinLee,aprofessorofinternationalrelationsatYonseiUniversity
inSeoul.HeaddedthatMr.Trumpwasforcingalliestocomeupwithconvincingelevatorspeechesonthekeybenefitstheybring
totheU.S.,andthusfar,noneofthemhavedoneso.

InChina,afrequenttargetofMr.Trumpscriticism,heiswidelyviewedasapragmatistwhoislesshawkishandlessfocusedon
humanrightsthanMrs.Clintonis.

HisproposaltoimposehightaxesonChinesegoodsreceiveslittleattentionthere,andhistalkofChinasrapingtheUnited
Statesinunfairtradedealshasbeenmetwithshrugs,asiftosaythatchargeisnothingnew.Instead,theconversationfocuseson
Mr.TrumpsbusinesssuccessorhispronouncementsonpreventingforeignMuslimsfromenteringtheUnitedStates,anattitude
thatjibeswiththeantipathyinmuchofChinatowardtheMuslimpopulationinthewesternprovinceofXinjiang.

ManyinChinabelieveapro-businessRepublicanpresidentwilltendtobepragmaticandChina-friendly,ifnotpro-China,said
WangDong,associateprofessorofinternationalstudiesatPekingUniversity.Therefore,manyinChinatendtoviewTrumps
remarksofimposingmorethan30percentoftariffsonChinaasrhetoricalcampaignlanguage.

Mr.TrumpsassertionthatAmericantroopsinSouthKoreaandJapanshouldbesentbacktotheUnitedStatesisinalignment
withofficial,thoughrarelystated,Chinesegoals.Buthissuggestion,laterreversedinpart,thatJapanandSouthKoreashouldbe
abletodeveloptheirownnucleararsenalsalarmedBeijing,especiallythenotionthatJapan,theoccupierofChinainWorldWarII,
wouldbecomeanuclearpower.

DavidE.SangerreportedfromWashingtonandSeoul,SouthKorea,andJimYardleyfromRome.JanePerlezandYufan
HuangcontributedreportingfromBeijing,andRichardMartyn-HemphillfromStockholm.

OLD[AMEMOFROMTHEPAST--GIVESCONTEXTTOJOSHCOHEN---HISTORIAN
EXTRAORDINAIRE]

[ED:AgoodCalifriendjustremindedyourstrulythatJoshCohen'slatestscreedinFPwassimplyatake-offoran
updateofanattackthathehadlaunchedbackinApril2015.[SEEAYTMEMOONTHESUBJECTBELOW
FROMTHEPERIOD]

Apparently,JC'smaximis:"If,atfirst,youdon'tsucceed,try...tryagain"!![HerbRcalledit"thetransformative
powerof'tellingasolidlieoftenenough'....."]

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:<ajmotyl@verizon.net>
Date:Wed,Apr29,2015at8:27AM
Subject:yourpiece
To:waz1@nyu.edu,waz2102@columbia.edu,wzarcusur@gmail.com

isverygood.Butit'llgetlostincyberspace,ifyoudon'tgetitpublishedsomewhere.Sinceit'sessentiallyarebuttaltoJCohen,whydon'tyou
sendit(sansthechatty,Ukr-relatedparts)toForeignPolicy?ThecontactpersonsareChristianCaryl(Christian.Caryl@foreignpolicy.com)
orMaxStrasser(Max.Strasser@foreignpolicy.com).

Best,Oles

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Date:Wed,Apr29,2015at1:13AM
Subject:[BURNINGTHETRULYLATENITEOIL....ORBURNINGATBOTHENDSOFACANDLE]A'YoursTruly'AdvisoryMemoonthe
'OpenLettertoPresidentPoroshenko'
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>

MYK......STARTHERE......PUTUPONFACEBOOK....with'Forwardedmessagetoshowtimesent']


DearFriends:

Lastweek,anitementitled"AnOpenLettertoPresidentPoroshenko",ostensiblyamemomeanttounderlinetherisksthatUkrainiangoverning
circlesweretakingwiththepotentialenactmentofasetof'de-communizationlaws',wasapparentlypostedonthewebsiteofthejournal'Krytyka'
andthenwentviralintheInternet.Judgingfromtherashofmailandthesetof'quickresponses'onthematterthatyourstrulyreceivedinthe
immediateaftermath,itwasnotastretchtoimaginethesaiditemstirringagreatdealofcontroversyandfrayingagoodnumberoflongterm
friendships.

Myinitialreactionwastotaketheissue'instride'or,essentially,toleaveitalone.Forone,accusationsof'extremism'assertedagainstthepresent
UAgovernment,thoughdemocraticallyelectedandavidlycentristinitspolitics(videMinskI&II),werebecominglegend(RThadfourorfivenew
onesaday)thereactionwas:"Whatelsewasnew?"Two,IthoughtthatpreparingforapresentationattheUNconcerningUARada'sexcellent
movetorecognizetheCrimeanTatarsasthe'trueindigenouspopulationofCrimea'wasmoreimportant.Finally,havingbeenaclose
observer/witnessofthelastyearsoftheColdWar,thewholeaffairseemed,atbest,an'awfuldistraction'---givenRU'songoinghybridwaragainst
Ukraineand,atworse,a'diversiya',asmygoodfriendandlegendaryexpertonSoviet'activemeasures',HerbRomerstein,waswonttosay.

Thisweekend,thatinitialreactionwassorelytested,whenoneofthesigners,Dr.John-PaulHimka(ofHolodomor-doubtingfame),decidedtoweb-
postaseconditem,a'follow-up'tothe'OpenLetter',assertingthattheUAgovernmentanditsvarious'informational'organswereopenlyengaged
inabetting,undertheguiseofde-communization',therehabilitationof'pastfascistforcesinUkraine'.

TheepisodewasfollowedinquicksuccessiononMondaybyJoshCohen(anold'Moscow'StateDept.handandlatelyapurveyorofthe
'Sanctionsdon'tworkagainstPutin'sentiment)launchingintoavelvetglovedtiradeofhisownontheselfsameissuethatHimkahadraised.Better
yet,Cohenresolvedtotakemattersacrucialstepfurther,suggesting(asRUforceswerebuffingupontheUAborderonceagain)thatthose
'darnedRUsocialmediatrolls'whowerecallingthepresentKyivgovernment'Nazis'mightjusthaveapointafterall.

Thementionedtandemprovokedan'OHBOY'momentofthehighestdegreeinaword,Iwas'furious'.Istillhadtheproblemofhavingtoprepare
forotherthingsinthenextdayortwo,soIknewthatwritingawellpreparedtreatiseonthesubjectwithsixcitationsperparagraphwasoutofthe
question.Butanicememo(withapossibleSwift-ianbitof'tongueandcheek'thrownin)tothoseonthe'bccinfochain'whohadthetimeorwere
braveenoughtoproperlychallengethe'writers/signersoftheOpenLetter'(andthe'increasinglyaccusatory'follow-uppieces)mightjustbethe
ticket.

Incomposingsuchanadvisorymemo,Idecidedthatperhapsthebestplacetostartwouldbetopointoutthesomeofthepitfallstoavoid(when
engagingthe'letter-signers'indiscussion).Theveryfirstsuchpitfallwouldbethetemptationtolashoutatanyoneinthegroupwithpersonal
accusations(likethepotshotItookatJ-PHimkainthepreviousparagraph).Lordknowsthatsuchatemptationwouldnotbecompletelywithout
merit.Acoupleofindividualsonthe'signerslist'havereputationsforengaginginscholarshipnotveryfarremovedfromthatofDougTottle,the
'famed'pro-SovietpamphleteerduringthelateColdWarperiodandauthoroftheeverilluminating"Fraud,FamineandFascism:TheUkrainian
GenocideMythfromHitlertoHarvard"(aworkwhichwasincidentallyfullofcitations,allunfortunatelytakendirectlyfrompamphletswrittenby
operativesinLubyanka).AndthereappeartobeacoupleofsignerswhoopenlysympathizedwiththeSovietUnionbackinheydaysoftheCold
War.Nevertheless,thereremainsalargehostofgood,honestscholarswhosignedbecausetheygenuinelyfeltthatthe'decommunizationprocess',
asenvisionedbytheratified(thoughasyetunsigned)legislation,mighthavelongtermdeleteriouseffectsonfreedomofexpressionandbelief.
Hence,anyargument,tobetakenseriously,wouldhavetoaddresstheirfears.Ineffect,theresponsewouldhavetodealwiththesubstanceofthe
issuesraisedintheletter(ratherthanwiththecredentials/characterofthesigners).

Inaddressingthesubstanceofletter,anothermajortemptation,andthereforepitfall,wouldbetoimitatethestructure/order/logicoftheletteritself.
Forreasonsknownonlytothefinaleditorsofthemissive,thefirstparagraphleadswithanattackontheUAgovernment'sallegedattemptto
rehabilitateallegedcrypto-fascistoroutrightfascistoutfitsspawnedduringtheWWII-ie-theUAnationalistformationsknownasOUN(the
OrganizationofUkrainianNationalists)andUPA(theUkrainianInsurgentArmy).Onlyinthesecondparagraphdoestheletterfinallyspeaktothe
ostensibleissueonhand-ie-'decommunizationproper'anditssupposedperilstoafreesociety.Again,thetemptation(byresponders)tofollow
suitemightproveoverwhelmingthepatrioticurgetodefendtheEuro-MaidanborngovernmentortheoldColdWarrior'surgetoportraytheattack
onOUN-UPAaspartandparcelofaseventyyearSovietlaunchedcampaigntobesmirchamuchfeared'UAnationalliberationmovement'might
trumpallotherconsiderations.Tosuccumbtotheurgewouldbeafundamentalmistake.Whateverelseanyonemightsay,theprimarytaskofthe
'decommunizationlaws'istoridtheUAsociety/stateofthe'symbols/iconsofcommunistrule'.Thisissueshouldremainthecentralfocus.

Insayingthatthecentralfocusofthedebateshouldbe"theproprietyofremovingthesymbols/iconsofcommunistruleinUkraine",afinal
potentialpitfallsurfaces.Thepitfallhastodowithopeningupanideologicaldebate,orbetteryet,anideologicaldivide,betweentheleftandthe
right.Theremightbeatemptationonthepartofagoodnumberofresponderstogetintoa'globaldiscussion'withthesignersaboutthegeneral
merits/demeritsofcommunism.Theresulting'intellectualfoodfight'wouldpitthosewhoconsidercommunismasatotalitarianideainwhosename
massmurderhasbeenrepeatedlycommittedvs.thosewhowouldbelievethat'Communism'wassimply'utopiagonewrong'(theirownyouthful
idealism'dissipated'),unliketheunadulteratedevilof'Nazism'.Thatframeworkisonetobeavoidedwhentryingtounderstandcommunistrulein
Ukraine.

InUkraine,tounderstand'theeraofcommunistrule',onemustusetheproperwordfortheparticularmanifestationofcommunisminthecountry
thetermis"Bolshevism".

Oncethetwosidesmightagreetodiscuss'BolshevikruleinUkraine'andthepropriety[orimpropriety]ofremovingbothitsiconsanditsmemory
fromtheUkrainelandscapeandpsyche,muchcouldbeenaccomplished.Andthathasalottodowithacceptinganothertermintheequationas
well:"occupation".

Why?Well,letusrememberthatBolshevism,amoreextremeversionofRussianMarxism(orRU'stakeonCommunism),wasnotindigenousto
Ukraine.Forbetterorworse,Ukrainehaditsowndeepandrichtraditionofstrivingforsocialjustice-ie-Socialism(ithappenswhenyougetde-
serfedaslateas1861)!!Thespectrumrangedfromtheanarchist(today,libertarian)socialismofMakhnothruthepeasantlovingSocial
RevolutionaryanticsofM.Hrushevskytothemoderate(SocialDemocratic)MarxismofPetlura-VinnychenkoandontonativeUkrainian
CommunismembodiedintheUKP/Borobists.Infact,thelastoftheUkrainiangovernmentsduringUkraine'sshort-livedindependenceinthepost
WWIperiod[1918-1921]wasrunbyaallianceofthesefeudingleftwingUkrainianparties.BolshevismhadnorealrootsinUkraine,evenasittried
tosetupa"pre-DNR"DNRsituationinKharkivin1919-21.OnlywhentheRedArmy(aidedbyaWhiteRUarmythatfoughtit,buttheUkrainians
more)arrivedfromRussia,didtheweakened(bybothwhiteandredRUforces)Ukrainianindependententityfinallyfailandgivewayto'Bolshevik
RuleinUA'!Inaword,asstatedbefore,'occupation'occurred!

Intheearlytwentiesbecauseofthepainsofearlygrowth,Bolshevikruleor'occupation'ofUkrainedifferedlittlefrom'other'colonialoccupations'
[Note:yes,evensocialistscouldengagein'dreamsofimperium',givenitsnon-monetaryrewards].Infact,becauseofthegrowingpains,the
[Kremlinbased]BolsheviksmadethemistakeoflettingthoseUkrainianswhoprovedloyaltotheirrulehaveabitoflee-way[rememberthatNEP
wasnotsimplyabouteconomics].ThatmistakewasnotedbyStalinwhenhecametopower.Heck,thoseUA'loyalists',UkrainianBolshevikslike
KhyvlovyandSkrypnyk,seemedtohaveamindoftheirown(justlikealltheircompatriots).Atthatpoint,theoccupationturnedintosomething
differentinthelatetwenties,itturned'genocidal'.

Again,whywouldsomeonehavetherighttomakethatassertion?BecausetheFatheroftheterm'genocide',RafaelLemkin,madetheverypointin
1953.HesuccinctlyelaboratedontheBolshevikfourstepplanforUkraineandUkrainians:[1]firsttakeouthead---theintelligentsia,NEP-men,rich
peasants[2]thentakeouttheheart---theclergy[3]thenaimforthebody..themiddleandpoorpeasants[4]finally----takeoutthenativeloyalists
andreplacethemwithyourownfolks.

Intheearly1930's,'[RUCommunist]BolshevikruleinUkraine'meant"genocide"(nation-killing).Admittedly,thatchangedabitwhenStalinandhis
politicaldescendantscametotwofurtherconclusions.OnewasthatthereweretoomanyofthosedarnedUkrainianstokilltheotherwasthatthe
Ukrainians,'nowhousebroken',mightserveasusefulfodderagainsttheenemiesoftheCCCP.Andsoitwentforatime.InWWII,Ukrainianswere
usedtograbpartsofFinlandin1940,defendStalingradagainsttheNazis(thatacesniperwasaUke)in1942-3,liberateAuschwitzinJan1945and
makearunonBerlininApril-May1945.Duringtheearly(nearhot)ColdWar,theUkrainiansprovedusefulNCOsinthegloriousSovietArmy
facingthosedamnedYankeeimperialistsinFuldaGap.Indeed,asareward,anewUAloyalist,PetroShelestwasgivenasolidseatatthePolitburo
tableintheKremlin.

Yet,forallhisloyalty,whentheoldUABolshevik(ararebreed)decidedtotalkabouthis"SovietUkraine"in1970-2,hebroughtdownhellon
himselfandhiscountrymen.BolshevikruleinUkraineduringthesecondhalfofBrezhnev's'eraofstagnation'turnedto'ethnocide'(theUA
dissidentStephanKhmaracoinedtheterm)replacingShelestwithacompletetoadynamedScherbytsky,theKremlinengagedin'immersed
RussificationofUkraine'throughoutthelate1970sand1980s.By1989-90,whenIvisitedLviv(thecityofmyancestors)forthefirsttime,eventhat
bastion'ofallthingsUkrainian'hadverydistinctnon-Ukrainianaspectstoit.

Ineffect,Bolshevik[RedRussian,tobeblunt]ruleinUkraineinvolvedphysical(genocidal)andspiritual(ethnocidal)'nationbreaking'(ofthe
worsesort).Andtheeffectsofthatwerenoteasytostop(orreverse).EvenafterUkrainereneweditsindependencein1991,thedamagedoneto
theUkrainianpsychewasevidentateveryturn.Throughoutthe1990s,manyUkrainianslivedasiftheywerestillintheSovietUniontheysaidas
much.Betteryet,thegreatawakeningin2004-5,theOrangeRevolution,didrelativelylittletochangetheunderlyingperception.ZbigBrzezinski,
alwayswonderfullyblunt,atoneofourUAQuestRoundtablesafterYushchenkoassumedthepresidency(anddeclaredforthe'Euro-Atlantic'
path),tooktheVAYtotaskforwanting"intoEUandNATO"whiletoleratingabigLeninstatuteatamajorUAairbaseinNorthUkraine(near
Desna).

ForUkrainewatchers,itwasonlywiththecomingoftheEuro-Maidan(andeventuallywiththenewgovernmentitspawnedinearly2014),that'the
senseof'occupation'begantotrulydisperse.Andironically,whetherthesigners/writersoftheOpenLetterwanttoadmititornot,theprocesswas
bestsymbolizedbythetakeoveroftheofficesofpower(controlledbytheproRURegionsfolk),theclosingdownofthevariousCommunistparty
headquarters,the'demont'ofLeninstatueslargeorsmallthroughoutCentral/EastUkraineandtheburningofStalinphotosinplaceslike
Zaporizhe!TheBolshevik'occupation'wasfinallyfullyendinginUkraine.TheRedparthaddisappearedin1991theRUpartwasdisappearing
rightbeforeeveryone'sMaidanenlightenedeyes!!

Finally,guesswhobestsensedwhattheMaidanandspinoffactivityactuallymeantandcontinuestomean?ThecastofcharactersfromKremlin
centralcastingthatwehavecometoloveandknowinthelastyear:Ol'Strelkov-GirkinofDNRfameandPutin'smainideologueAlexanderDugin.
Hence,despitebeingrightofAttilatheHun(hatetoinsultAttilathatway)intheirnationalchauvinism,racism,anti-semitismandhomophobia,the
twonamedhavecontinuedtolamenttheremovalofsuchlefticonographyasthestatutesofLeninandthevarious'hammer&sickle'emblems
embeddedineverymajordoorofeveryofficialbuildinginUkraine.Theyareinrealitylamentingthe'endoftheoccupation'.

Armedwiththe'occupation'paradigm,aresponderwouldbereadytobringsometoughquestionstotheattentionthe'writers/signersoftheOpen
Letter'(youknewwewouldcomebacktothat).

Perhapstheveryfirstsetofquestionsonemightaskthe'letter-signers'wouldbethefollowing:Indefendingtherightofindividualstobelievethat
CommunistruleinUkrainehada'goodside',whichaspectofthatruleshouldusedasanexample?ThePeriodofGenocide?Ortheperiodof
Ethnocide?OrthetimeinbetweenwhenUkrainianswereusedtoinvadeFinland?

Inrapidsuccession,onemightfollowupbyasking:Don'tyoufinditjustalittledisturbingthatyouarelamentingtheprohibitionoftheverysame
symbolsasthelikesofGirkinandDugin?Anddon'tyoufindittheleastbituncomfortabletobeerstwhilebedfellowswithfolkswhowouldhave
no'truck'withyouoryourbeliefs?

Asatopper,onemightleaveourdear'OpenLetter-men'withonefurtherquestiontocontemplate:TheremayhavebeenhonestBolsheviksin
Ukrainebetween1917and1991,butdidyouevernoticethattheyusuallyendedupinagraveorinexile(videKhvylovy,Skrypnyk,Shelest)right
alongsidethose'damnedfascist'Banderites'?

Oncetherespondershadcompletedtheirprimarytask,itistruethatthebraveronesmightpushtheenvelopeandexploretwofurtherquestions
(onesIsuggestedwerenotatheheartofthe'decommunization'issueandcouldbeleftforalaterdebate).ThefirstwouldbeaboutthoseWWII
formationsthatmostpostMaidanUkrainians,ofwhateverideologicalpersuasions(mostlycentrist),ethnicbackgroundorreligiouspersuasion
havecometoseeas'thevanguardofthenationalliberationstruggle'butwhichtheCCCPhadforseventyyearslabelled'fascist'---withbatchesof
documentssentWestevenduringtheColdWartoprovethepoint.

HavinghadthepleasureofknowingtwoindividualswhohavehadaccesstooldSovietarchives,thealreadymentionedHerbRomersteinandDr.
YuriShapovaloftheUkrainianAcademyofSciences,IhaveheardeachindicatethattheRussianDezinformapparathadsobadlymangledthe
reputationoftheoutfitslikeOUNandUPAthat'theirmotherswouldnotrecognizethem'.GiventhatthepostMaidanperiodhadfinallygiven
historiansaccesstomostoftheSovietfilesonthetwooutfits,wouldn'titmakesensetoactuallytorunacoupleofseriousscholarlyconferences
beforemakingafinalhistoricaljudgementontheentitiesinquestion?

Thesecondwouldbeatouchierquestionandwouldtrulyrequirecourage.ItwouldcanvasthemajorityoffinescholarswhosignedontheOpen
letterwhethertheythoughtHolodomor-doubtingandoverlycloserelationswiththeoldCCCP(substituteHolocaustandNaziGermanyfor
comparison)disqualifiedsomeonefrombeingtakenseriouslyasascholar.

ThoughtsOutofaSeason!


WAZ

PS:Iknowitslateatnight....butIamstilltryingtowrapmyheadaroundthefactthatsomany85pound'BanderaBewegung'typescomingoutof
thevariousGermanKZaspoliticalprisonersin1945havemorphedintoNaziicons70yearslater!!Idon'tgetit!!Itmustsimplybethelackof
sleep!!

2016PS[AnImportantPersonalAdd-on]:Oneofthose85pounderswasmybelovedfather-in-law,VolodymyrKostyk---comingout
ofMauthausenII(thedeathcampintheM-Gcomplex)

 From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 05/04/201609:23:45AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:[EVENINGITEMSOFNOTE][TALESOFASHTON]UA/TODAY:DODSectalksaboutplannedvisittoUkraineFOX:CartertoMoscow:WewilldefendEuropeanalliesBBC:CartertellsRUtostop'nuclearsabre-
Subject:
rattling''........[TALESOFTHEDON]Trump'sMan...

From:wolodymyrzarycky[mailto:wzarcusur@gmail.com]
Sent:Tuesday,May03,20164:03PM
Subject:Fwd:[EVENINGITEMSOFNOTE][TALESOFASHTON]UA/TODAY:DODSectalksaboutplannedvisittoUkraineFOX:CartertoMoscow:WewilldefendEuropeanalliesBBC:CartertellsRUto
stop'nuclearsabre-rattling''........[TALESOFTHEDON]Trump'sMan...

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>
Date:Tue,May3,2016at6:59PM
Subject:[EVENINGITEMSOFNOTE][TALESOFASHTON]UA/TODAY:DODSectalksaboutplannedvisittoUkraineFOX:CartertoMoscow:WewilldefendEuropeanalliesBBC:
CartertellsRUtostop'nuclearsabre-rattling''........[TALESOFTHEDON]Trump'sManManafort:AQuietAmerican(withstrangefriends)CK/AIM:Don-VladBud-shipcouldbe'campaign-
threatening'....
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:hunter@
Date:Tue,May3,2016at5:11PM
Subject:DODSectalksaboutplannedvisittoUkraineCartertoMoscow:WewilldefendEuropeanalliesCartertellsRUtostop'nuclearsabre-rattling'

To:

To:18:46May.3,2016

U.S.DefenceSecretarysaysheplanstovisitUkraine
U.S.andEuropewillmaintainalongtermpartnershipwithUkraineinsecuritysector,AshtonCarterhopes
DefenceSecretaryAshCarter(APPhoto)

DefenceSecretaryAshCarter(APPhoto) U.S.SecretaryofDefenceAshtonCartersaysheplanstovisitUkraineandissettocontinuetheircooperationinthemilitary
field.
HealsosaidthathepreviouslymetwithhisUkrainiancounterpartStepanPoltorak,andintendstodevelopthese
contacts,reportstheRussianstate-ownednewsagencyTASS.
0Facebook "Their(Ukraine's)DefenceMinister(StepanPoltorak)isaverygoodprofessional,"saidthePentagonchief."Icooperate
withhimagreatdeal,ImethimafewtimesinEuropeandIhopetogothere(toUkraine)."
Twitter

0Google+
Theministerdidnotspecifythedate.

ReadalsoRussiatopsUSsecuritythreatchallenges:DefenceChiefAshtonCarter
Sendviaemail
CarteralsosaidtheU.S.helpsUkrainetrainandequipitsarmedforcesunderthespecialprogram,whichisperformedin
theYavorivshootingrange(westernUkraine).
Accordingtohim,theUnitedStates"isalsopushingitsEuropeanalliestoensuretheydomoreinthisregard."
"IthinkthatweandEuropewillmaintainalongtermpartnershipwithUkraineinthefieldofsecurity",saidtheAmerican
Minister.
FOXNEWS/SECRETARYOFDEFENSE

CartersendsmessagetoMoscow:USreadyto
'defendourallies'

ByLucasTomlinson Facebook253Twitter410livefyre2750EmailPrint

PublishedMay03,2016

FoxNews.com

STUTTGART,GermanyDefenseSecretaryAshCarter,inGermanytousherinanewU.S.militarycommanderforEurope,usedtheopportunityTuesdayto
sendabluntwarningtoMoscownottoprovoketheNATOallianceafterrecentencountersintheairandonthehighseas.

"WedonotseektomakeRussiaanenemy.Butmakenomistakewewilldefendourallies,therules-basedinternationalorder,andthepositivefutureitaffords
us,"CartersaidattheU.S.military'sEuropeanCommandinStuttgart,Germany.

CarterexpressedadesirenottostartanewColdWarwithRussiaora"hot"one.

ButhesaidRussiaseeksto"erode"thepeacefulorderEuropeandtherestoftheWesthaveenjoyedsincetheendoftheColdWar.

Carter,invowingtheU.S.woulddefenditsallies,warnedRussiaisincreasingitssubmarinepatrolstotheNorthAtlantic.Hedidnotspecificallymentionthe
recent"barrelrolls"byRussianjetsoverU.S.militaryaircraftinthepastfewweeksbutaccusedRussia'sleadersof"nuclearsaber-rattling"andputtingtheworld
atriskintheprocess.

TheObamaadministrationsresolvetotakeonRussiaremainsamatterofdispute.PresidentObamawascaughtonanopenmicrophonein2012assuringthen-
PresidentDmitryMedvedevhedhavemoreflexibilityontheissueofmissiledefenseaftertheelection.Russia,underVladimirPutin,laterdefiedU.S.warnings
withitstakeoverofCrimeaandmilitaryinvolvementinEasternUkraineandhascomplicatedU.S.effortsinSyriawithitsinterventionthere.

CarterthisweektraveledtoGermanyfortheinstallationofGen.CurtisScaparrottiatthehelmofU.S.EuropeanCommand.Therearemorethan60,000U.S.
soldiersstationedinEurope,significantlylessthanduringtheColdWar,whenmorethan200,000soldierswerestationedmostlyinGermany.

CartersaidTuesdaythePentagonhaspledged$3.4billioninnextyear'sbudget,quadruplethespendingfromlastyear,tobeefupNATO'seasternflankwithits
allies.CartersaidanewarmoredbrigadewouldbeheadingtoEurope,thoughofficialstoldFoxNewsitwouldnotarriveuntiltheendof2017.

CartersaidtheincreaseinfundswouldsupportanadditionalU.S.AirForceF-15squadron,moreU.S.specialoperationsforcestotraininEurope,andmore
submarine-huntingaircrafttocounterincreasedRussiansubmarineactivity.

"Russiasaggressiveactionsonlyservetofurtheritsisolation,anduniteouralliance,"hesaid.

Russiadoesnotseeitthatway.OfficialsinMoscowbelievetheUnitedStateshasviolateda1997treatythatsaysNATOcannotamassforcesalongtheborder
withRussia.Thetreatydoesnotspecifyhowmanyforcesarepermissible.

EnroutetoGermanyonMonday,CartertoldreporterstheUnitedStatesisconsideringputtingmoreforcesinEasternEurope,butiswaitingtoconsultwith
NATOofficialsbeforeanyfinaldecisionsaremade.Cartersaiduptofourbattalions,orsome4,000soldiers,couldbeaddedtoEasternEurope.

AhandfulofNATOdefenseofficialswillbeonhandforacounter-IslamicStatemeetingWednesdaywithCarterinStuttgart.

DespitesometoughtalkaboutRussia,Carterindicatedheswillingtoworktogetherinthefuture:"WellkeepthedooropenforRussia.ButitsuptotheKremlin
todecide."

OneexampleCarterusedaboutpastU.S.-RussiancooperationwasMoscow'swillingnesstoallowtheUnitedStatesandNATOtouseasupplycorridorin
northernAfghanistanintheyearsfollowingthe9/11terroristattacksandthestartofcombatoperationsagainsttheTalibanandAlQaeda.

ThatcorridorhassincebeenclosedbyRussia.

Inhisremarks,theoutgoingU.S.commanderofEuropeanCommand,Gen.PhilipBreedlove,acareerfighterpilot,saidhiscareerisendingwhereitbegan,with
Russiainhissights.

"MycareerstartedhereinaColdWartryingtokeepthepeace.IthinkmycareerisnowendingheretryingtopreventaColdWarandcontinuetokeepthe
peace,"hesaid.

Hisreplacement,Scaparrotti,wasaskedaboutRussianjetsbuzzingU.S.Navyshipsandaircraft,whenhewasonCapitolHillafewweeksagobeforetheSenate
ArmedServicesCommittee.

"ShouldwemakeanannouncementtotheRussians,thatiftheyplacethelivesofourmenandwomenonboardNavyshipsindanger,thatwewilltake
appropriateaction?"committeeChairmanJohnMcCain,R-Ariz.,asked.

"Ibelievethatshouldbeknown,yes,"Scaparrottisaid.

LucasTomlinsonisthePentagonandStateDepartmentproducerforFoxNewsChannel.YoucanfollowhimonTwitter:@LucasFoxNews

BBC
USaccusesRussiaofnuclearsabre-rattling,amidNatotensions
5hoursago

FromthesectionEurope
 ImagecopyrightGetty
ImagesImagecaptionTheUSSDonaldCookwasbuzzedbytwoRussianjetsovertheBalticSealastmonth

USDefenceSecretaryAshCarterhasaccusedRussiaof"nuclearsabre-rattling"andofbeingintentonerodinginternationalorder.

HesaidheregrettedstrainedrelationswithMoscowbutsaidtheUShadto"prioritisedeterrence"onNato'seasternflank.

US-RussiantieshavebeenstrainedbytheUkrainecrisisandrecentmilitaryencountersintheBalticSea.

RussiahasaccusedNatoofthreateningitsnationalsecurity.

SpeakingduringaceremonyattheUSEuropeanCommandHeadquartersinGermany,MrCartersaidRussiawas"goingbackwardsintime".

ButMrCartersaid:"Wedonotseekacold,letaloneahotwarwithRussia."

Nuclearthreats:AnalysisbyJonathanMarcus,BBCdefencecorrespondent
MrCarter'swarningaboutRussia'snuclearsabre-rattlingisameasureofhowpoorrelationsarebetweenNatoandMoscow.

AtrootisRussia'sannexationoftheCrimeaanditsmilitaryoperationsineasternUkraine.ButMoscowseesNato'sresponse-awholeseriesofreinforcedexercisesinPolandandthe
BalticrepublicsalongwithadditionalUSarmourstock-piledinEurope-asyetanotherexpansionofthealliance'sactivitiestowardsitsownborders.

RussiahasexplicitlywarnedDenmarkthatitswarshipscouldbecomethetargetofnuclearstrikesifitjoinsNato'sballisticmissiledefencesystemandsimilarthreatshavebeenmadeto
NorwayandPoland.

Russiaissignificantlymodernisingitsnucleararsenal.IthasalsodeployedIskander-MnuclearcapablemissilestoitsKaliningradenclave.This,alongwithincreasinglyaggressiveRussian
airpatrols,isonlyencouragingNatotoenhanceitsowndeterrentcapability.

"WedonotseektomakeRussiaanenemy.Butmakenomistake,wewilldefendourallies,therules-basedinternationalorder,andthepositivefutureitaffordsus."

Headded:"Moscow'snuclearsabre-rattlingraisestroublingquestionsaboutRussia'sleaders'commitmenttostrategicstability,theirrespectfornormsagainsttheuseofnuclearweapons,
andwhethertheyrespecttheprofoundcautionthatnuclear-ageleadersshowedwithregardtobrandishingnuclearweapons."

MrCarteroutlinedplanstodeployathirdUSArmycombatbrigadeinEuropeinthecomingyear.

Hesaiditwaspartofa$3.4bn(2.3bn)initiativetoreassureNatoalliesofUScommitmenttotheirsecurityandtodeterRussianaggression.

"Wehaven'thadtoprioritisedeterrenceonNato'seasternflankforthepast25years,butwhileIwishitwereotherwise,nowwehaveto,"hesaid.
 ImagecopyrightGetty
ImagesImagecaptionTheUSsaysitistodeploymoretroopstoEuropetoworkalongsideNatoallies

RelationsbetweenRussiaandtheWestdeterioratedafterRussiaannexedUkraine'sCrimearegionin2014.

UkraineandtheWesthaveaccusedRussiaofcovertlybackingpro-RussianrebelswhonowcontrolmuchofeasternUkraine.Russiastronglydeniestheclaims.

Lastweek,theUSaccusedaRussianjetfighterofaggressivelyinterceptingaUSAirForcereconnaissanceplaneovertheBalticSea.ItsaidtheRussianjethadperformedabarrelroll.

Earlierlastmonth,twoRussianplanesflewclosetoaUSguidedmissiledestroyeralmostadozentimesintheBaltic.

Russia'senvoytoNatosaidthedestroyerhadsailedclosetotheRussianenclaveofKaliningradinanattempt"toexercisemilitarypressureonRussia".

Correspondentssaysuchencountershaveraisedfearsofafull-onconfrontation,beitdeliberateoraccidental,betweentheworld'stwogreatmilitarypowers.

---------Forwardedmessage----------
From:<sbabs52@verizon.net>
Date:Tue,May3,2016at2:47PM
Subject:TheQuietAmerican
To:DOCKER50@aol.com,ozwdmytrenko@gmail.com,peterterr@yahoo.com,peterpolny@aol.com,PWolowacz@aol.com,wwilczak@msn.com,hryckowianstan@yahoo.com,
waz2102@caa.columbia.edu,george.woloszyn@rhmr.com,Andrika16@aol.com

InterestingreadingmaterialtyingManafortwithUkraine'sOligarchsandYanukovich,andManafort'sconnectionwithTrumpgoingbackto
theAtlanticCitycasinodays.(PublishedbySlateMagazine04-28-16)

TheQuietAmerican
PaulManafortmadeacareeroutofstealthilyreinventingtheworldsnastiesttyrantsasnoble 6.3k
defendersoffreedom.GettingDonaldTrumpelectedwillbeacinch. 1.1k

ByFranklinFoer 584
DonaldTrumpspoliticalstrategistPaulManafort,left,withformerpresidentialcandidateBenCarsonatacampaignreceptiononApril21in
Hollywood,Florida.

JoeRaedle/GettyImages

Mar-a-Lago,DonaldTrumpspalace,isimpressivebythestandardsofPalmBeachlesssowhenjudgedagainsttheabodesoftheworldsautocrats.Itdoesnt,
forinstance,quitecomparewithMezhyhirya,thegildedestateofdeposedUkrainianPresidentVictorYanukovych.Trumpmayhave33bathroomsandthreebomb
shelters,buthismansionlacksaherdofostrich,agalleonparkedinapond,andasetofgoldengolfclubs.Yetthetwopropertiesarelinked,notjustinostentatious
spirit,butbythepresenceofoneman.TrumpandYanukovychhavesharedthesamepoliticalbrain,anoperativenamedPaulManafort.

Ukrainiansusethetermpoliticaltechnologistasafavoredsynonymforelectoralconsultant.TrumpturnedtoManafortforwhatseemedatfirstatechnicaltask:
Manafortknowshowtobullwhipandwheedledelegatesatacontestedconvention.Hesdoneitbefore,assistingGeraldFordinstiflingRonaldReagans
insurgencyattheGOPssummerclassicof1976.Intheconventionsthatfollowed,theRepublicanPartyoftenhandedManafortcontroloftheprogramand
instructedhimtostage-managetheshow.Heproducedthemorning-in-Americaconventionof1984andtheBobDolenostalgia-thonof1996.

GivenManafortsexperienceandskillset,itnevermadesensethathewouldbelimitedtosuchanarrowalbeitcrucialtaskasdelegateaccumulation.Indeed,it
didnttakelongbeforeheattemptedtoseizecontroloftheTrumpoperationmanagingthebudget,buyingadvertising,steeringTrumptowardateleprompterand
awayfromflaminghisopponents,appearingonairasaprimarysurrogate.

SomesawthehiringofManafortasdesperate,asTrumpreachingforarelicfromthedistantpastinthebelatedhopeofcompensatingforahaphazardcampaign
infrastructure.Infact,securingManafortwasacoup.Heisamongthemostsignificantpoliticaloperativesofthepast40years,andoneofthemosteffective.He
hasrevolutionizedlobbyingseveraltimesover,thoughheself-consciouslyrefrainsfrombroadcastinghisinfluence.Unlikehisoldbusinesspartners,RogerStone
andLeeAtwater,youwouldneverdescribeManafortasflamboyant.Hestaysinluxuryhotels,butordersroomserviceandchurnsoutmemos.Whenhedoes
venturefromhissuitefordinnerwithagroup,hellsitattheendofthetableandsaynexttonothing,givingtheimpressionthathereserveshisexpensiveopinions
forprivateconversationswithhisclients.Manafortisapersonwhodoesntnecessarilyshowhimself.Theresnothingegotisticalabouthim,saystheeconomist
AndersAslund,whoadvisedtheUkrainiangovernment.ThelateWashingtonPostcolumnistMaryMcGrorydescribedhimashavingasmooth,noncommittal
manner,thoughshealsonotedhisaggrievedbrowneyes.DespitehisdecadesofamassinginfluenceinWashingtonandotherglobalcapitals,hesneverbeen
thesubjectofafullmagazineprofile.Hedistributesquotestothepressatthetimeandplaceofhischoosing,whichpriortohisarrivalontheTrumpcampaign,was
almostnever.(Indeed,hedidnotrespondtorequeststocommentforthisstory.)

Hisworknecessarilyentailssecrecy.AlthoughhisclientlisthasincludedchunksoftheFortune500,hehasalsobuiltaboomingbusinessworkingwithdictators.
AsRogerStonehasboastedabouttheirnow-disbandedfirm:Black,Manafort,Stone,andKelly,linedupmostofthedictatorsoftheworldwecouldfind.
Dictatorsareintheeyeofthebeholder.ManaforthadaspecialgiftforchanginghowdictatorsarebeheldbyAmericaneyes.Hewouldrecastthemasnoble
heroesveneratedbyWashingtonthinktanks,delugedwithmoneyfromCongress.

PlayingtenniswithYanukovychatMezhyhiryamighthavebeentheculminationofManafortslongcareer.HespentnearlysevenyearscommutingtoKiev.Overthat
stretch,heremadeUkrainianpoliticsandhelpedshiftthecountryintoVladimirPutinssphereofinfluence.Itwasanimpressiveachievement,atleastaccordingto
theethicalcalculusthatgovernsManafortsworld.ButthenalongcameDonaldTrumpanotheroligarchindesperateneedofhisservices.

***

ThegenesisofDonaldTrumpsrelationshipwithPaulManafortbeginswithRoyCohn.ThatRoyCohn:JoeMcCarthysheavy-liddedhenchman,lawyertothe
Genovesefamily.Duringthe70s,TrumpandhisfatherhiredCohnastheirlawyertodefendthefamilyagainstahousingdiscriminationsuit.(Cohnaccusedthe
FedsofusingGestapo-liketactics.)ButCohnandTrumpbecamegenuinepals,lunchingattheFourSeasonsandclubbingtogetheratStudio54.ItwasRoy
CohnwhointroducedStoneandManaforttoTrump.

Duringthosediscoyears,StoneandManafortweretetheredtogether.TheywerebothkidsfromConnecticut,attendingcollegesinWashington,thoughthey
couldnthavebeenmoredifferent.Stonelovedattentionandgarnereditwiththeatricalflair.Hewasabadboy,soi-disant.AsastudentatGeorgeWashington
University,StonemoonlightedfortheNixoncampaignandgravitatedtoJebMagruder,deputydirectoroftheCommitteetoRe-ElectthePresident.Dirtytricks
camenaturallytoStone.HeassumedapseudonymandmadecontributionsonbehalfoftheYoungSocialistAlliancetooneofNixonspotentialchallengers.He
hiredspiestoinfiltratetheMcGoverncampaign.Stonewasntshyabouthishandiwork.Infact,hewasntshyaboutanything.Helovedtositforinterviewsand
vamp.StoneisabodybuildingfanaticwhoposedshirtlessintheNewYorker.Thephotocapturedhisimplantedhair,butnotthetattooofRichardNixononhis
back.

Manaforthadaverydifferentmentor.Hestudiedunderthefuturesecretaryofstate,JamesA.BakerIII,whowieldedhisknifewiththedisciplineofaMarineandthe
polishofaPrincetonian.ItwasagoodfitforManafort,whosharedhismentorspragmaticconservatismandhisthirstforpolitics.(Hisfatherspentsixyearsasthe
mayorofNewBritain,Connecticut,aRepublicanwhoflourishedinDemocraticterrain.)Baker,anavidcollectorofyoungtalent,hadmanagedGeraldFordsre-
electioncampaign.ThatswherehespottedManafortandanointedhimaidedecamp.WhenBakerneededhisownmanagerforhis1978campaigntobecome
attorneygeneralofTexas,hetappedManafort.TheexperienceofwhisperinginBakersearleftalastingimpression.PaulmodeledhimselfafterBaker,oneofhis
friendstoldme.

DespitehisYankeestock,ManafortranReagansSouthernoperation,theraciallytingedappealthatinfamouslybeganinPhiladelphia,Mississippi,thehamlet
wherecivilrightsactivistsweremurderedin1964.Thesuccessofthe1980campaigngaveStoneandManafortcachet.Moreimportant,theyhelpedrunReagans
transitiontopower.Theystockedtheadministration,distributingjobsacrosstheagenciesandaccumulatingowedfavorsthatwouldprovidethebasisfortheirnew
lobbyingbusiness.Theyopenedtheirdoorsin1981.

ManafortandStonepioneeredanewstyleoffirm,whatKStreetwouldcometocalladouble-breastedoperation.Onewingoftheshopmanagedcampaigns,
electingagenerationofRepublicans,fromPhilGrammtoArlenSpector.Theotherwinglobbiedtheofficialstheyhelpedtovictoryonbehalfofitscorporateclients.
Overthecourseoftheirearlyyears,theyamassedaraftofblue-chipbenefactors,includingSalomonBrothersandRupertMurdochsNewsCorp.

AnotherearlyclientwasDonaldJ.Trump.WhatTrumpwantedwashelpfendingoffpotentialrivalstohisAtlanticCitycasinobusiness.Heespeciallyfearedtherise
ofIndiangaming.Asthe2016campaignhasgraphicallyillustrated,Trumpdoesnttreatrivalsgently.Testifyingbeforeacongressionalcommitteein1993,he
beganwithhisroteprotestationsoffriendship.NobodylikesIndiansasmuchasDonaldTrump.Hethenproceededtoworrythatthetribeswouldproveunableto
fendoffgangsters.ThereisnowayIndiansaregoingtoprotectthemselvesfromthemob...Itwillbethebiggestscandalever,thebiggestsinceAlCaponeAn
IndianchiefisgoingtotellJoeyKillertopleasegetoffhisreservation?Itsunbelievabletome.

TrumppouredmoneyintoashellgroupcalledtheNewYorkInstituteforLawandSociety.ThegroupexistedsolelytopublishadssmearinghispotentialIndian
competition.Underdarkphotosofneedlesandotherjunkieparaphernalia,thegroupasserted,TheSt.RegisMohawkIndianrecordofcriminalactivityiswell
documented.(Itwasnt.)Arethesethenewneighborswewant?WeknowthatTrumpandStonewerebehindtheNewYorkInstitutebecauseGov.GeorgePataki
investigateditsdoings.HeslappedTrumpandStonewitha$250,000fineandrequiredthemtopubliclyapologizeforrunningtheads.

ManafortdidntowntheTrumpaccountatthefirm.Butoneofhisformerpartnerstoldmethathewoulddispenseadviceandpitchin,winningTrumpstrust.When
ManaforttookanapartmentinTrumpTowersin2006,hewouldkibitzwithhisoldclientwhentheydrunintooneanotherontheelevator.Trumpknewthisguywas
topdrawer,saysoneRepublicanoperative.

***

ManafortandStonebuiltaglamourfirm.TheBlackinitsnamebelongedtoCharlesBlack,whoasa25-year-oldlaunchedtheSenatecareerofJesseHelms.Later,
theyluredLeeAtwater,theevilgeniuswhowoulddevisetheWillieHortongambitforGeorgeH.W.Bush.Thefirmhadswagger.Intheearly80s,thepartnersspoke
openlytotheWashingtonPostoftheirannual$450,000salaries.AccordingtotheconsultantEdRollins,Blackwouldlaterboastthatthefirmhadschemedtogain
cartel-likecontrolofthe1988Republicanpresidentialprimary.Theymanagedallofthemajorcampaigns.AtwatertookBushBlackranDoleStonehandledJack
Kemp.AcongressionalstafferjokedtoareporterfromTime,Whyhaveprimariesforthenomination?WhynothavethecandidatesgoovertoBlack,Manafortand
Stoneandargueitout?

Manafortactivelyavoidedthespotlight,thoughhehadaknackforgarneringunwantedattention.Hetookonclientsandcausesthatevenmostofhiscolleagueson
KStreetconsideredoutsidetheusualbounds.Black,Manafort,andStonehiredalumnioftheDepartmentofHousingandUrbanDevelopmentthenusedthose
connectionstowin$43millioninmoderaterehabilitationfundsforarenovationprojectinUpperDeerfield,NewJersey.Localofficialshadnointerestinthegrants,
astheyconsideredtheshambleofcinderblockslongpastthepointofrepair.ThemoneyflowedfromHUDregardless,anddeveloperspaidManafortsfirma
$326,000feeforitshandiwork.Helaterboughta20percentshareintheproject.Twoyearslater,rentsdoubledwithoutanysignofimprovement.Conditions
remained,inMaryMcGroryswords,strictlyThirdWorld.Itwassuchanoutrageousscamthatcongressmenflockedtomakeaspectacleofit.Manafortcalmly
tookhisflaying.Youmightcallitinfluence-peddling.Icallitlobbying,heexplainedinonehearing.Thatsadefinitionaldebate.

Strangely,theHUDscandalprovedamarketingboonforthefirm.AnaidetoMobutuSeseSekotoldthejournalistArtLevine,Thatonlyshowshowimportantthey
are!Indeed,ManafortenticedtheAfricandictatortohirethefirm.Manyoftheworldsdictatorseventuallybecamehisclients.NameadictatorandBlack,Manafort
willnametheaccount,Levinewrote.(Levinespiece,publishedinSpy,featuredasidebarrankingtheethicalbehaviorofWashingtonlobbyists:ItfoundBlack,
Manaforttheworstofthebunch.)TheclientlistincludedPhilippinestrongmanFerdinandMarcos(witha$900,000yearlycontract)andthedespotsofthe
DominicanRepublic,Nigeria,Kenya,EquatorialGuinea,andSomalia.WhentheCenterforPublicIntegritydetailedthefirmswork,ittitledthereportThe
TorturersLobby.

Indeed,thefirmwasanall-purposeimage-buffingoperation.AstheWashingtonPosthasreported,Manafortcouldbookhisclientson60MinutesorNightline
andcoachthemtomaketheirbestpitch.HelobbiedCongressforforeignaidthatflowedtohisclientscoffers.Hemightevenprovideafewchoicepiecesof
adviceabouttampingdowndomesticcritics.Manafortunderstoodthemindsetofthedictatorwasntsodifferentfromhiscorporateclients.Accordingtoone
proposalunearthedbycongressionalinvestigators,thefirmboastedofpersonalrelationshipswithadministrationofficialsandpromisedtoupgrade
backchannelstotheU.S.government.

Thiswasntemptyrhetoric.OnaFridayin1985,ChristopherLehmanlefthisjobattheNationalSecurityCouncil.ThefollowingMonday,hewasflyingwith
Manafort,hisnewboss,tothebushofAngolatopitchtheChinese-trainedguerillaJonasSavimbi,whowantedcovertassistancefromtheU.S.tobolsterhis
rebellionagainstAngolasMarxistgovernment.SavimbibrieflyleftabattleagainstCubanassaultforcesandsigneda$600,000contract.

ThemoneyboughtSavimbiarevisedreputation.DespitehisclientsMaoistbackground,Manafortreinventedhimasafreedomfighter.Heknewallthetricksfor
manipulatingright-wingopinion.SavimbiwassenttoaseminarattheAmericanEnterpriseInstitute,hostedbytheanticommuniststalwartJeanneKirkpatrick,a
receptionthrownbytheHeritageFoundation,andanotherconfabatFreedomHouse.(KirkpatrickintroducedSavimbi,whoconscriptedsoldiers,burnedenemies,
andindiscriminatelylaidlandmines,asalinguist,philosopher,poet,politician,warrior...oneofthefewauthenticheroesofourtime.)

Manafortscampaignworkedwonders.HislobbyinghelpedconvinceCongresstosendSavimbihundredsofmillionsincovertaid.Indeed,everytimeAngola
stoodontheprecipiceofpeacetalks,Manafort,Blackworkedtogenerateafreshroundofarmsshipmentsthatmanyexpertsbelieveextendedtheconflict.Sen.
BillBradleywasbluntinassigningblame.WhenGorbachevpulledtheplugonSovietaidtotheAngolangovernment,wehadabsolutelynoreasontopersistin
aidingSavimbi.ButbythenhehadhiredaneffectiveWashingtonlobbyingfirm,whichsuccessfullyobtainedfurtherfunding.OrasArtLevineconcluded,Sothe
warlastedanothertwomoreyearsandclaimedafewthousandmorelives!Sowhat?WhatcountstoaWashingtonlobbyististheabilitytodeliveratangiblevictory
andspruceuphisclientsimage.

***
PaulManafort,afterTrumpdeliveredhisforeignpolicyspeechattheMayflowerHotelinWashington,D.C.,April27,2016.

JimBourg/Reuters

WhopaysPaulManafort?Thequestioncanbedevilishlydifficulttoanswer.HedoesntalwaysfiletheformsdemandedbytheForeignAgentsRegistrationAct.
Andhemaynotevenneedtodisclosewhocutshischecks.Thelawisporous,andovertimerevisionsintheacthavecreatedvariouswaysforlobbyiststohide
theirdeeds.LikeHenryKissinger,Manafortcanclaimthathemerelyconsultswithforeigngovernments,relievinghimofthelegalburdenofannouncinghis
benefactors.

MoneyarrivestoManafortcircuitously,sometimesthroughthedodgiestofroutes.Weknowthisbecauseheadmittedoneinstancetoinvestigators.Iftheresone
placeontheplanetinhospitabletoAmericanpoliticalconsultants,itisFrance.SowhenManafortwroteacampaignstrategyforEduoardBalladurspresidential
campaignin1995,hisrolewaskeptfromthepublic.Paymentstraveledbeneaththetable.Infact,theFrenchinvestigationrevealed,themoneycamefromagood
friendandoldclientofManaforts,aLebanesearmsdealercalledAbdulRahmanal-Assir.(ManaforttookAssirtoGeorgeH.WBushsinaugurationin1989Assir
onceloanedManafort$250,000,astheWashingtonPostreportedthisweek).

Manafortsfeewasasmallpieceofalargerkickbackscheme.Atleast$200,000cametoManafort,someofitviaaccountsinMadrid.Itwaspartofadeal
brokeredbyAssir.HearrangedforFrancetosellPakistanthreeAgostasubmarineswithtensofmillionsofeurosincommissionsreturningtothecoffersofthe
Balladurcampaign.Thescandal,knowninFranceastheKarachiAffair,hashoveredoverthecountryspoliticseversinceitbrokein2010.(TheEnglishex-
wifeofanotherFranco-LebanesearmsdealerinvolvedinlaffairrevealedtheManafortpaymentstoaFrenchjudge.)

ItwasnttheonlytimethatManafortreceivedmoneyfromthePakistanis.MichaelIsikoffhasreportedthatManafortwaspaid$700,000bytheKashmiriAmerican
CouncilostensiblyagrassrootsorganizationadvocatingagainstIndiancontrolofthecontestedborderland.Fundingforthegroup,however,camefromPakistani
intelligence.TheassistantU.S.attorneywhoinvestigatedtheKashmiriAmericanCouncilhascalleditafalseflagoperation.Manafortflewhisownfalseflagsin
thenameofhisstealthclient.In1993,hetraveledtoKashmirtoobtainfootageforavideohisfirmwasproducingonbehalfofthePakistanis.Theworkentailed
interviewingIndianofficials,whowouldhavenevergrantedaccessifManafortannouncedhistruepurpose.Togetinthedoor,heliedabouthisidentity,tellingthe
IndiansthatheworkedforCNN.Manaforthasdeniedthatheevermisrepresentedhimself,buthesooffendedtheIndiangovernmentthataspokesmanforits
foreignministryissuedapublicrebuke:Thewholethingwasobviouslyablatantoperationofproducingtelevisionsoftwarewithadeliberateandparticularlyanti-
IndianslantbylobbyistshiredbyPakistanforthisverypurpose.

***

AmongtheRepublicanestablishment,thereshopethatManafortwillprovetheturnaroundartistwhofixesthemessoftheTrumpcampaign,givingita
professionalismthatnobodycouldhaveexpected.Indeed,hehasatrackrecordofsuccessfullymakingovercandidates,thoughhisgreatestsuccesscameinan
entirelydifferentpoliticalecosystem.

In2005,theUkrainianoligarchRinatAhmetovsummonedManaforttoKiev.AhmetovhailedfromDonetsk,theRussian-orientedheavy-industryeastofthecountry.
Ahmetovhadcauseforpanic.Thebestpoliticalhopeforhisregion,and,moretothepoint,hisownbusinessinterests,wasagruffpoliticiancalledVictor
Yanukovych.Asateen,Yanukovychspentthreeyearsinprisonforrobberyandassault.Afterhisrelease,hewasagainarrestedforassault.Noneofthispast
historytheseyouthfulmistakes,whichheonceinstructedtheKGBtoexpungefromhisrecordslowedhisrisethroughthepoliticalranks.In2002,heserveda
briefstintasprimeministerinascleroticpro-Russiangovernment,miredincorruptionscandals.

WhenAhmetovsummonedManafort,in2005,hiscandidatehadsufferedacrushingdefeat.YanukovychhadjustrunforpresidentofUkraine,acampaignthat
involvedrampantfraudandthepossiblepoisoningofhisopponentwithdioxin.Hisbidendedinmassiveprotestsagainsthimandhiscrudeattemptstooverturn
thewillofthepeople.Theprotests,theOrangeRevolution,wereaburstofoptimismthatUkrainemighttranscenditspastandtakeitsseatasaEuropean-style
democracy.TheyshouldhavedestroyedYanukovychscareer.

FormerprimeministerofUkraineViktorYanukovich,onApril2,2004.

SergeiSupinsky/AFP/GettyImages

Yanukovychseemedahopelesscase.Akleptocraticgoon,apigwhowouldnttakelipstickishowoneAmericanconsultantwhoworkedinUkrainedescribed
him.YetManafortsawhope,aswellasahandsomepaycheck.DespiteYanukovychsSovietstyle,Manafortconsideredhimpoliticalclaythatcouldbemolded.He
sawrawtalentwhereothersdidntandheshapeditbrilliantly,oneformerStateDepartmentofficialtoldme.ManafortsetaboutgivingYanukovychanewlook:well-
tailoredsuits,shirtsandtiesthatmatched,ahaircutthattamedhisragingbouffant.Manaforttaughtthepolafewsimplelessonsthathelpedsanddownhisedges.
Heshowedhimhowtowavetoacrowd,ratherthankeephisarmslockedtohissides.Heinstructedhimtorefrainfromspeakingoffthecuff.Hetaughthimhowto
displayamodicumofempathywhenlisteningtothestoriesofvoters.Ifeelyourpain,Yanukovychwouldnowexclaimathisrallies.OneUkrainiancolumnist
cheekilyaskedhisreaderstoidentifythe10elementsofYanukovychralliesthatManaforthadimportedfromtheRepublicanconventionshedrun.

Thebuffedimagewasbornfromopinionsurveys,conductedbyateamofpollstersManafortbroughttoKiev.HefoundthatthehopeoftheOrangeRevolutionhad
curdledintofrustrationwiththegovernmentsincompetence.SoManafortcraftedanewimageofYanukovychbusinesslike,notlikablebutpersistentthatstood
asapragmaticantidotetothehaplessOrangeRevolutionaries.PeoplebelievedthatwhenYanukovychwasprimeminister,therehadbeenanordertothings,
BrianMefford,aUkraine-basedconsultanttoldme.Thatsthesentimenttheytriedtorunon.

Atthesametime,ManafortunderstoodhowtoaccentuatedivisionsintheUkrainianelectorate.HehadoverseenReagansSouthernstrategyheunderstoodthe
powerofculturalpolarization.HispollingshowedthatYanukovychcouldconsolidatehisbasebystokingsubmergedgrievances.Eventhoughtherewaslittle
evidenceofthemistreatmentofRussianlanguagespeakersbytheUkrainianstate,heencouragedhiscandidatetomakeanissueofimaginedabusestorally
theirbase.Tothesameend,heinstructedYanukovychtorageagainstNATO,whichhedidbycondemningjointoperationsthealliancewasconductinginCrimea.

WhenAmericanAmbassadorWilliamTaylorarrivedinKievin2006,hesummonedManaforttoameetinginhisoffice.Manafortwouldbecomeafixtureinthe
officesofAmericanambassadorstoUkraine,theU.S.governmentsprimaryconduittoYanukovychandthepro-Russiancamp.AsTaylortoldagroupofAmerican
democracyactivistsjustafterthemeeting,hehadaskedManaforttotampdownYanukovychscriticismsofthejointoperationsNATOwasconductingwiththe
Ukrainians.Theimplicationsofhisaskwereclear:TheinterestsofAmericansecuritywerehurtbysuchrhetoric.AmericantoAmerican,Imaskingyoutotalkto
him.Manafortscoffedatthenotion.HebluntlyannouncedthathewouldntaskYanukovychtodialbacktherhetoric.Itpolledtoowell.

Tobefair,ManafortwashardlytheonlyAmericaninYanukovychsorbit.BernieSandersconsultantTadDevinewenttoworkforhimin2009.Ukrainiansspent
heavilyinWashington,hiringasmallarmyoftop-drawerRepublicanlobbyists,includingformercongressmenVinWeberandBillyTauzin,tobolsterYanukovychs
imageinWashingtonandultimatelystaveoffAmericansupportforUkrainiandemocracy.ButManafortsetupthelargestshopinKiev,housedinawell-guarded
officejustoffIndependenceSquare.Duringelections,hisoperationswelledtosixAmericanconsultants,inadditiontoUkrainiantranslatorsanddrivers.He
procuredaspecialroleintheYanukovychcamp.AndersAslundtoldme,ManafortbecameYanukovychsclosestpoliticaladvisor.

***

In2005,JohnMcCainreceivedacallfromastafferontheNationalSecurityCouncil.Therewasaproblem,thestaffertoldthesenator.Themanorchestrating
McCainspresidentialcampaignwasPaulManafortspartner,alobbyistnamedRickDavis.Theadministrationwantedthesenatorshelpdialingbacktheduos
workinUkraine,twotopMcCainaidestoldme.BypromotingenemiesoftheOrangeRevolution,theywereunderminingAmericanpolicy.

ThecallcameafterManafortandDavishadalreadydrawnMcCainintotheireasternescapades.ItwasntjustUkraine.Thatyear,thepairhadconsultedonbehalf
ofpro-independenceforcesinthetinyprincipalityofMontenegro,whichwantedtoexitSerbiaandbecomeitsownsovereignrepublic.Onthesurface,thissounded
nobleenough,sonoblethatMcCaincalledMontenegrosindependencethegreatestEuropeandemocracyprojectsincetheendoftheColdWar.
AreportintheNation,however,showedthattheMontenegrincampaignwasntremotelywhatMcCaindescribed.Theindependenceinitiativewaschampionedby
afantasticallywealthyRussianmogulcalledOlegDeripaska.Deripaskahadparochialreasonsforpromotingindependence.HehadjustpurchasedMontenegros
aluminumindustryandintendedtobuybroaderswathsofitseconomy.ButhewasalsodoingthebiddingofVladimirPutin,onwhosegoodgracesthefateofall
Russianbusinessultimatelyhangs.TheNationquotedDeripaskaboastingthattheKremlinwantedanareaofinfluenceintheMediterranean.

ManafortandDavisdidntjustsnookerMcCainintotrumpetingtheirclientscausetheyendangeredhimpolitically,byarrangingaseriesofmeetingswith
Deripaska,whotheU.S.hadbarredfromenteringthecountrybecauseofhistiestoorganizedcrime.In2006,theysteeredMcCaintoattendadinnerwiththe
oligarchatachaletnearDavos,whereDeripaskaspeechifiedforthe40orsoguests.(TheWashingtonPostreportedthattheoligarchsentDavisandManaforta
thank-younoteforarrangingtoseethesenatorinsuchanintimatesetting.)Sevenmonthslater,ManafortandDavistookMcCaintocelebratehis70thbirthday
withDeripaskaonayachtmooredintheAdriatic.

NoteveryonewithintheMcCaincampfeltcomfortablewiththisrelationship.OnegroupofaidespushedhardforMcCaintofireRickDavisforsullyingthesenator
withthefirmsmuck.McCainintendedtodojustthat.ThesenatorhadbackedthecauseofUkrainiandemocracyandhecouldntstomachhistopaidesfirm
workingtoundermineit.Whatsmore,aideshadcometoMcCainwiththerumorthatDeripaskahadpurchasedanapartmentinTrumpTowerforDavisand
Manafort.Butinthemoment,McCainlosthisnerve,ashisaideshaverecountedtheepisode.Davissuppliedatear-filledsoliloquythatsavedhisjob.Ricksplea
somehowworkedandthatwastherootofthedivisionsthattoreapartthecampaign,oneofMcCainstopadviserstoldme.

ItwasjustunsubstantiatedhearsaythatDeripaskahadpaidforManafortsflat.YetMcCainaideswererighttosuspecttherelationship.ManafortandDaviswere
hungryfortheoligarchscash.AstheWashingtonPostreported,theyevenconvincedDeripaskatoinvestina$200millionprivateequityfundtheycreated.For
theirefforts,DeripaskapaidDavis,Manafort,andanotheroneoftheirpartnersa$7.5millionmanagementfee.Butapparentlytheydidntdoverymuchmanaging,
orinvestingeither.WhenDeripaskaaskedforanauditofthefundin2008,ManafortandDavisneverdeliveredone.Infact,accordingtoacomplaintthat
Deripaskafiledincourt,DavisandManafortprovidednoadditionalupdates.Deripaskawasdesperatetogethismoneybackwhich,thePostnoted,coincided
withManafortsstrangedisappearancefrompublicview.Atthetime,RogerStonewrotefriendsacrypticemailtitled,WheresPaulManafort?Hesupplieda
multiple-choicesetofanswersincludingWasseenchauffeuringYanukovycharoundMoscowandWasseenloadinggoldbulliononanArmyTransportplanefrom
aremoteairstripoutsideKievandtakingoffsecondsbeforeamobarrivedatthesite.

DeripaskawasnttheonlydubiousoligarchtoinvestwithManafort.HeorchestratedamajordealwithaUkrainiancalledDmitryFirtash.Afiremanandsoldier,
Firtashfoundwaystoflourishinthepost-Sovieteconomyasamiddleman,sellingnaturalgasbyhisownadmission,hedidsothankstohisconnectionswith
SeymonMogilevich,theRussianMafiasbossofbosses.

ButhiscrucialconnectionwastoVladimirPutin.FirtashsgrandschemewasdetailedinathoroughinvestigationpublishedbyReuters.Gazprom,theRussian
state-ownednaturalgasconglomerate,wouldselltoFirtashatadeepdiscount.Firtash,inturn,resoldthegastotheUkrainiangovernment,investingtheprofitin
fundingforpro-Putinpoliticians,includingVictorYanukovych.

ReuterswasbluntindescribingtheperniciouseffectofFirtashsdealings:

ItdemonstrateshowPutinusesRussianstateassetstocreatestreamsofcashforpoliticalallies,andhowheexportedthismodeltoUkraineinanattempt
todominatehisneighbour,whichheseesasvitaltoRussiasstrategicinterests.WiththehelpofFirtash,Yanukovichwonpowerandwentontorule

Ukraineforfouryears.TherelationshiphadgreatgeopoliticalvalueforPutin:Yanukovichendedupsteeringthenationofmorethan44millionawayfrom
theWestsorbitandtowardsMoscowsuntilhewasoverthrowninFebruary.

AfterFirtashmadebillionsoffthescheme,heandManafortpartneredtobuythesiteoftheoldDrakeHotelonParkAvenue.WithalongtimeTrumpfamilyaide
andthedeveloperArthurCohen,ManafortandFirtashhatchedagrandplan.TheycalledtheirprojecttheBulgariTower,anditwouldfeatureamall,privateclub,
andspa.Oratleastthatswhattheydescribedintheirplans.In2008,Firtashwired$25milliontoNewYorktobankrolltheproject.Accordingtocourtdocuments,
healsosetupa$100millioninvestmentfund,payingManafortandhispartnersa$1.5millionfeeformanagingthemoney.

ItwasagoodmomentforFirtashtoparkhiscashinManhattan.Hisarch-enemyYuliaTymoshenko,anoldnaturalgasbrokerherself,hadcometopowerayear
earlier.ShemovedaggressivelyagainstFirtash,whosecompanyshedescribedasawartonthebody.ShecutherowndealwithPutinforthesupplyofenergy,
eliminatingFirtashfromthebusiness.Andsheseizedhismassivestockpileofgas,effectivelynationalizingthesourceofhisfortune.

DefeatingTymoshenkothusbecameFirtashsprimarygoalinlife.HespentheavilyonYanukovychscampaignagainstherin2010.FortunatelyforFirtash,
Manafortwasonthejob.WhentheconsultantfirstarrivedinKiev,Yanukovychwasthesubjectofnearuniversalderision.ButhisyearsofgroomingYanukovych,and
perfectinghispoliticalmachinery,carriedhimtovictoryanarrowwinrootedinthemisstepsofhisopponents,butonethatwouldhaveneverhappenedwithout
skilledreinvention.Marvelingatthisaccomplishment,theUkranianjournalistMustafaNayeemwrotethatManafortwastheonlypersonwhoreallyadaptedto
Ukrainianpoliticalreality.

AssoonasYanukovychcametopower,herestoredFirtashsbusiness.Mostimportant,thenewgovernmentsettledalawsuitthatFirtashhadfiledobjectingto
Tymoshenkosseizureofhisgas.Aspartofthesettlement,thegovernmenthanded$3billionworthofnaturalgastoFirtash:hisoldstashplusanextrabillioncubic
metersofgasthrownintothedealascompensationforhistroubles.DerSpiegel,whichreviewedthetextofthesettlement,concluded,ViktorYanukovych,the
presidentofUkraine,servedthecommercialinterestsofanoligarchwithwhomhehasclosetiesattheexpenseofhisowncountry.And,indoingso,healsodid
Moscowafavor.

AsforBulgariTower,theprojectsputteredandshutteredinJanuary2009.YuliaTymosehnkodidntlikethesmellofthings.ShesuedManafortandFirtashfor
racketeeringintheSouthernDistrictofNewYork.Themoneykeptgoinginandout,herlawyerKennethMcCalliontoldme.Realestatewastheostensiblereason
forsendingmoneytoNewYork.Buttheyneverwantedtocloseontheproject,theywantedtokeepthecashliquid,soitcouldkeepgoingbacktoUkraine.Thesuit
neverhadmuchofachance,becauseitdidntofferenoughsupportingevidencetojustifyitsgrandioseclaim:thatManafortandFirtashwerelaunderingmoneyto
financehumanrightsabusesonagrandscale.Buthercaseraisedallmanneroftroublingquestions,andreinforcedanoldone:WhywouldPaulManafortso
consistentlydothebiddingofoligarchsloyaltoVladimirPutin?

***

ThatshardlyaquestiontobotherDonaldTrump,whohasprofessedhisownadmirationforPutinsbare-chestedleadership.Overmonthsoftweetsandtaunts,
DonaldTrumphasterrifiedmostoftheRepublicanestablishment,whoviewhimasabrand-shatteringelectoraldebacleinthemaking.ButthatspreciselywhyPaul
Manaforthasgravitatedtowardhim,andwhatmakestheclientsuchaperfectmatchfortheconsultant.

TopComment

Myfencingcontractortoldmetodayhe'svotingforTrump.Abitironicsincehe'sHispanicandhisfathercamefromMexico.Alsoironicthathe'sbuildingmea
fence.NowifIcanonlymakehimpayforit.More...

584CommentsJoinIn

Manaforthasspentacareerworkingonbehalfofclientsthattherestofhisfellowlobbyistsandstrategistshavedeemedjustbelowtheirnot-so-highmoral
threshold.Manaforthasconsistentlygivenhisclientsapatinaofrespectabilitythathasallowedthemtomigrateintothemainstreamofopinion,orcloseenoughto
themainstream.Hehasaparticularknackfortakingautocratsandpresentingthemasdefendersofdemocracy.Ifhecouldconvincetherespectableworldthat
thugslikeSavimbiandMarcosarefriendsofAmerica,thenwhynotdothesameforTrump?Oneofhisfriendstoldme,Hewantedtodohisthingonhometurf.He
wantedonelastshotatthebigprize.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:CliffKincaid<kincaid@comcast.net>
Date:Tue,May3,2016at3:26PM
Subject:GeneralsWarnofRussianAggressionAsTrumpCoziesUpToPutin
To:"Zaryckyj,Walter"<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

GeneralsWarnofRussianAggressionAsTrumpCoziesUpToPutin
ByCliffKincaid

http://www.aim.org/aim-column/generals-warn-of-russian-aggression-as-trump-cozies-up-to-putin/

WhileRepublicanpresidentialcandidateDonaldJ.TrumpistalkingaboutcooperationwithRussia,TheWallStreetJournalisreportingthatoneofAmericastopgenerals,NATO
SupremecommanderGeneralPhilipBreedlove,issayingthattheUnitedStatesanditsallieshavetoimmediatelyaddressRussianmilitaryaggression.

WeseethatRussiahasnotacceptedthehandofpartnershipbuthaschosenapathofbelligerence,Breedloveisquotedbythepaperassaying.Weneedtoreaddresswherewere
heading.BreedloveisretiringasNATOsupremecommanderandcommanderofU.S.EuropeanCommand.

Bycontrast,TrumprecentlygaveaforeignpolicyaddressthatcompletelyignoredRussianaggressioninUkraine,leadingtoawarmreceptioninMoscowfortheRepublicancandidate.

ThecuriousomissionbyTrumpisoneofseveralactionsorstatementshehasmadeonRussianaffairsthatledJonathanChaittowriteanarticleforNewYorkmagazineentitled,WhyIs
DonaldTrumpaPatsyforVladimirPutin?AttemptingtoexplainTrumpsstatementsofsupportforRussianPresidentPutin,hecitedevidenceofRussiascampaigntocultivateinfluence
intheWestbycorruptingmembersoftheAmericanmediaandpoliticalEstablishment.

InadditiontoRussianaggressioninEuropeandtheMiddleEast,Breedlovessuccessor,ArmyGeneralCurtisScaparrotti,saysthatU.S.militaryleadersshouldkeepeverythingonthe
table,includingamilitaryresponse,ifRussiaengagesinmoremilitaryprovocationsdirectlyagainstU.S.forces.SuchincidentshaveincludedRussianfighterjetsharassingU.S.Navy
ships.

ThegeneralsaidthatPutinisdeliberatelytryingtobreakupNATO,apro-AmericanalliancethatTrumphassuggestedisobsolete.

InitsstoryonhowU.S.militaryleadersaregettingincreasinglyconcernedaboutRussiasaggressiveintentions,theJournalexplained,InthewakeofRussiasstealthyinvasionand
annexationofCrimea,theU.S.intelligencecommunity,inparticularmilitaryintelligence,cameunderwitheringcriticismforhavingfailedtoadequatelywarnpolicymakersandmilitary
leaders.

ThetermmilitaryintelligenceismostlyareferencetotheDefenseIntelligenceAgency(DIA),whoseformerdirector,Lt.Gen.MichaelT.Flynn,hascomeunderfireforhisclose
relationshipwiththeRussiaToday(RT)propagandachannel.

AIMwasthefirsttoreportthatFlynn,aftersteppingdownfromDIA,wenttoMoscowtoparticipateinthe10thanniversarycelebrationoftheMoscow-fundedandEnglish-language
channelknowntoitscriticsasKGB-TV.HesatatadinnertablewithPutinandRTeditor-in-chiefMargaritaSimonyan.

InamajorembarrassmentforFlynn,arecentarticleinPoliticobyMichaelCrowleycitedFlynnsrelationshipwithRTasthemostintriguingexampleofhowtheRussianshavegone
aboutrecruitingdisaffectedmembersoftheWashington,D.C.foreignpolicyestablishment.

ThetermrecruitingsuggestsusingFlynnforanti-Americanpropagandapurposes.

Crowley,seniorforeignpolicywriteratPolitico,saidthatFlynnsattendanceattheRTgala,whichalsoincludedremarksonworldaffairs,appearedtoinauguratearelationshipwiththe
networkpresumablyapaidone,thoughneitherFlynnnorRTansweredqueriesonthesubject.Flynnnowmakessemi-regularappearancesonRTasananalyst,inwhichheoftenargues
thattheU.S.andRussiashouldbeworkingmorecloselytogetheronissueslikefightingISILandendingSyriascivilwar.

InadditiontohisrelationshipwithRT,FlynnhasdescribedhimselfasaninformaladvisertoTrump,whoalreadyhasseveralpro-Russianaidesandadvisers.

WewerentfocusedonRussiawhenIcameinthreeyearsagobecausewewerestilltryingtocastaparadigmthatbroughtRussiaintothefoldofWesternvalues,saidBreedlove,inan
attempttoexplainwhythePentagonwascaughtoff-guardbyRussia.Hesaid,Russiachoseadifferentpathortheywereonthatpathandwedidntrecognizeit.

WhatheisdescribingisamassiveintelligencefailurethatcouldstemfromtheworkofagentsofinfluenceforRussia,oractualRussianspies.

Trump,however,continuestopreachcooperationwithRussia.

ThescopeoftheintelligencefailureregardingRussiawasaddressedrecentlybythechairmanoftheHouseIntelligenceCommittee,Rep.DevinNunes(R-CA),whoadmittedtoCNNs
JakeTapperonApril12thattheU.S.governmenthasbadlymisjudgedtheintentionsofPutinformany,manyyears.Hedeclared,Thebiggestintelligencefailurethatwehavehad
since9/11hasbeentheinabilitytopredicttheleadershipplansandintentionsofthePutinregimeinRussia.

AftertheRussianinvasionofGeorgiain2008,Rep.Nunesnoted,theU.S.continuedtoengagediplomaticallywiththeRussians,andwecontinuedtotalktotheRussians,andthenthey
invadedEasternUkraine.Wemissedthat,hesaid.Andthenwecompletelymissedentirelywhentheyputanewbase,anewbasewithaircraftintotheMediterranean,intoSyria.We
justmissedit.Wewereblind.

WhileTrumpsspeechwasgiventoanaudienceofforeignpolicyexperts,includingRussia'sambassadortoWashington,SergeyKislyakwhowassittinginthefrontrowtheformer
DIAdirectorspro-Moscowactionsandstatementsarealsogeneratingcontroversy.ThePoliticoarticleonFlynnsvisittoMoscowsaid,Atamomentofsemi-hostilitybetweentheU.S.
andRussia,thepresenceofsuchanimportantfigureatPutinstablestartledcurrentandformermembersoftheObamaadministration.

PoliticosMichaelCrowleyquotedaformerPentagonofficialassayingaboutFlynn,ItwasextremelyoddthatheshowedupinatuxedototheRussiangovernmentpropagandaarms
party.

EvenmoresignificantistheverdictdeliveredbyNewYorkmagazinesChaitregardingTrumphimself.HesaysthatwhileTrumpsstyleandbombasticstatementsonforeignpolicyand
otherareasareconsideredcontroversialbysome,themuchbiggerscandalmaybethatTrumpisVladimirPutinsstooge.ThestorycarriedtheimplicationthatTrumpisactinglikean
agentofinfluenceforPutinsRussia.

ThefailuresintheintelligencecommunityregardingRussiaandtheallegedpenetrationoftheWashington,D.C.foreignpolicyestablishmentbyRussianagentsseemliketopicsthatneedto
beaddressedbytheHouseandSenateIntelligenceCommittees.

Ultimately,however,theAmericanpeoplemayhavetoweightheevidence,sincepresidentialcandidatesdonthavetopassFBIbackgroundcheckstodeterminetheirsuitabilityforpublic
office.

ChaitdescribedtheTrump-Putinrelationshipascampaign-threatening,achargethatcouldhandtheNovemberelectiontoformerSecretaryofStateHillaryClintonifTrumpsecuresthe
GOPnomination,andifheisperceivedtobefriendlywithaU.S.adversaryorenemy.

IfTrumpisperceivedasanagentofinfluenceforPutin,theRepublicanPartycouldbegreatlyembarrassedandMrs.Clintoncouldcomeacrossasmoresolidinherknowledgeand
conductofforeignaffairs,despiteherclassifiedemailscandalandforeignpolicyfailuressuchasBenghazi.

CliffKincaidistheDirectoroftheAIMCenterforInvestigativeJournalism,andcanbecontactedatcliff.kincaid@aim.org

 From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 05/04/201609:23:45AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:[EVENINGITEMSOFNOTE][TALESOFASHTON]UA/TODAY:DODSectalksaboutplannedvisittoUkraineFOX:CartertoMoscow:WewilldefendEuropeanalliesBBC:CartertellsRUtostop'nuclearsabre-
Subject:
rattling''........[TALESOFTHEDON]Trump'sMan...

From:wolodymyrzarycky[mailto:wzarcusur@gmail.com]
Sent:Tuesday,May03,20164:03PM
Subject:Fwd:[EVENINGITEMSOFNOTE][TALESOFASHTON]UA/TODAY:DODSectalksaboutplannedvisittoUkraineFOX:CartertoMoscow:WewilldefendEuropeanalliesBBC:CartertellsRUto
stop'nuclearsabre-rattling''........[TALESOFTHEDON]Trump'sMan...

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>
Date:Tue,May3,2016at6:59PM
Subject:[EVENINGITEMSOFNOTE][TALESOFASHTON]UA/TODAY:DODSectalksaboutplannedvisittoUkraineFOX:CartertoMoscow:WewilldefendEuropeanalliesBBC:
CartertellsRUtostop'nuclearsabre-rattling''........[TALESOFTHEDON]Trump'sManManafort:AQuietAmerican(withstrangefriends)CK/AIM:Don-VladBud-shipcouldbe'campaign-
threatening'....
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:hunter@
Date:Tue,May3,2016at5:11PM
Subject:DODSectalksaboutplannedvisittoUkraineCartertoMoscow:WewilldefendEuropeanalliesCartertellsRUtostop'nuclearsabre-rattling'

To:

To:18:46May.3,2016

U.S.DefenceSecretarysaysheplanstovisitUkraine
U.S.andEuropewillmaintainalongtermpartnershipwithUkraineinsecuritysector,AshtonCarterhopes
DefenceSecretaryAshCarter(APPhoto)

DefenceSecretaryAshCarter(APPhoto) U.S.SecretaryofDefenceAshtonCartersaysheplanstovisitUkraineandissettocontinuetheircooperationinthemilitary
field.
HealsosaidthathepreviouslymetwithhisUkrainiancounterpartStepanPoltorak,andintendstodevelopthese
contacts,reportstheRussianstate-ownednewsagencyTASS.
0Facebook "Their(Ukraine's)DefenceMinister(StepanPoltorak)isaverygoodprofessional,"saidthePentagonchief."Icooperate
withhimagreatdeal,ImethimafewtimesinEuropeandIhopetogothere(toUkraine)."
Twitter

0Google+
Theministerdidnotspecifythedate.

ReadalsoRussiatopsUSsecuritythreatchallenges:DefenceChiefAshtonCarter
Sendviaemail
CarteralsosaidtheU.S.helpsUkrainetrainandequipitsarmedforcesunderthespecialprogram,whichisperformedin
theYavorivshootingrange(westernUkraine).
Accordingtohim,theUnitedStates"isalsopushingitsEuropeanalliestoensuretheydomoreinthisregard."
"IthinkthatweandEuropewillmaintainalongtermpartnershipwithUkraineinthefieldofsecurity",saidtheAmerican
Minister.
FOXNEWS/SECRETARYOFDEFENSE

CartersendsmessagetoMoscow:USreadyto
'defendourallies'

ByLucasTomlinson Facebook253Twitter410livefyre2750EmailPrint

PublishedMay03,2016

FoxNews.com

STUTTGART,GermanyDefenseSecretaryAshCarter,inGermanytousherinanewU.S.militarycommanderforEurope,usedtheopportunityTuesdayto
sendabluntwarningtoMoscownottoprovoketheNATOallianceafterrecentencountersintheairandonthehighseas.

"WedonotseektomakeRussiaanenemy.Butmakenomistakewewilldefendourallies,therules-basedinternationalorder,andthepositivefutureitaffords
us,"CartersaidattheU.S.military'sEuropeanCommandinStuttgart,Germany.

CarterexpressedadesirenottostartanewColdWarwithRussiaora"hot"one.

ButhesaidRussiaseeksto"erode"thepeacefulorderEuropeandtherestoftheWesthaveenjoyedsincetheendoftheColdWar.

Carter,invowingtheU.S.woulddefenditsallies,warnedRussiaisincreasingitssubmarinepatrolstotheNorthAtlantic.Hedidnotspecificallymentionthe
recent"barrelrolls"byRussianjetsoverU.S.militaryaircraftinthepastfewweeksbutaccusedRussia'sleadersof"nuclearsaber-rattling"andputtingtheworld
atriskintheprocess.

TheObamaadministrationsresolvetotakeonRussiaremainsamatterofdispute.PresidentObamawascaughtonanopenmicrophonein2012assuringthen-
PresidentDmitryMedvedevhedhavemoreflexibilityontheissueofmissiledefenseaftertheelection.Russia,underVladimirPutin,laterdefiedU.S.warnings
withitstakeoverofCrimeaandmilitaryinvolvementinEasternUkraineandhascomplicatedU.S.effortsinSyriawithitsinterventionthere.

CarterthisweektraveledtoGermanyfortheinstallationofGen.CurtisScaparrottiatthehelmofU.S.EuropeanCommand.Therearemorethan60,000U.S.
soldiersstationedinEurope,significantlylessthanduringtheColdWar,whenmorethan200,000soldierswerestationedmostlyinGermany.

CartersaidTuesdaythePentagonhaspledged$3.4billioninnextyear'sbudget,quadruplethespendingfromlastyear,tobeefupNATO'seasternflankwithits
allies.CartersaidanewarmoredbrigadewouldbeheadingtoEurope,thoughofficialstoldFoxNewsitwouldnotarriveuntiltheendof2017.

CartersaidtheincreaseinfundswouldsupportanadditionalU.S.AirForceF-15squadron,moreU.S.specialoperationsforcestotraininEurope,andmore
submarine-huntingaircrafttocounterincreasedRussiansubmarineactivity.

"Russiasaggressiveactionsonlyservetofurtheritsisolation,anduniteouralliance,"hesaid.

Russiadoesnotseeitthatway.OfficialsinMoscowbelievetheUnitedStateshasviolateda1997treatythatsaysNATOcannotamassforcesalongtheborder
withRussia.Thetreatydoesnotspecifyhowmanyforcesarepermissible.

EnroutetoGermanyonMonday,CartertoldreporterstheUnitedStatesisconsideringputtingmoreforcesinEasternEurope,butiswaitingtoconsultwith
NATOofficialsbeforeanyfinaldecisionsaremade.Cartersaiduptofourbattalions,orsome4,000soldiers,couldbeaddedtoEasternEurope.

AhandfulofNATOdefenseofficialswillbeonhandforacounter-IslamicStatemeetingWednesdaywithCarterinStuttgart.

DespitesometoughtalkaboutRussia,Carterindicatedheswillingtoworktogetherinthefuture:"WellkeepthedooropenforRussia.ButitsuptotheKremlin
todecide."

OneexampleCarterusedaboutpastU.S.-RussiancooperationwasMoscow'swillingnesstoallowtheUnitedStatesandNATOtouseasupplycorridorin
northernAfghanistanintheyearsfollowingthe9/11terroristattacksandthestartofcombatoperationsagainsttheTalibanandAlQaeda.

ThatcorridorhassincebeenclosedbyRussia.

Inhisremarks,theoutgoingU.S.commanderofEuropeanCommand,Gen.PhilipBreedlove,acareerfighterpilot,saidhiscareerisendingwhereitbegan,with
Russiainhissights.

"MycareerstartedhereinaColdWartryingtokeepthepeace.IthinkmycareerisnowendingheretryingtopreventaColdWarandcontinuetokeepthe
peace,"hesaid.

Hisreplacement,Scaparrotti,wasaskedaboutRussianjetsbuzzingU.S.Navyshipsandaircraft,whenhewasonCapitolHillafewweeksagobeforetheSenate
ArmedServicesCommittee.

"ShouldwemakeanannouncementtotheRussians,thatiftheyplacethelivesofourmenandwomenonboardNavyshipsindanger,thatwewilltake
appropriateaction?"committeeChairmanJohnMcCain,R-Ariz.,asked.

"Ibelievethatshouldbeknown,yes,"Scaparrottisaid.

LucasTomlinsonisthePentagonandStateDepartmentproducerforFoxNewsChannel.YoucanfollowhimonTwitter:@LucasFoxNews

BBC
USaccusesRussiaofnuclearsabre-rattling,amidNatotensions
5hoursago

FromthesectionEurope
 ImagecopyrightGetty
ImagesImagecaptionTheUSSDonaldCookwasbuzzedbytwoRussianjetsovertheBalticSealastmonth

USDefenceSecretaryAshCarterhasaccusedRussiaof"nuclearsabre-rattling"andofbeingintentonerodinginternationalorder.

HesaidheregrettedstrainedrelationswithMoscowbutsaidtheUShadto"prioritisedeterrence"onNato'seasternflank.

US-RussiantieshavebeenstrainedbytheUkrainecrisisandrecentmilitaryencountersintheBalticSea.

RussiahasaccusedNatoofthreateningitsnationalsecurity.

SpeakingduringaceremonyattheUSEuropeanCommandHeadquartersinGermany,MrCartersaidRussiawas"goingbackwardsintime".

ButMrCartersaid:"Wedonotseekacold,letaloneahotwarwithRussia."

Nuclearthreats:AnalysisbyJonathanMarcus,BBCdefencecorrespondent
MrCarter'swarningaboutRussia'snuclearsabre-rattlingisameasureofhowpoorrelationsarebetweenNatoandMoscow.

AtrootisRussia'sannexationoftheCrimeaanditsmilitaryoperationsineasternUkraine.ButMoscowseesNato'sresponse-awholeseriesofreinforcedexercisesinPolandandthe
BalticrepublicsalongwithadditionalUSarmourstock-piledinEurope-asyetanotherexpansionofthealliance'sactivitiestowardsitsownborders.

RussiahasexplicitlywarnedDenmarkthatitswarshipscouldbecomethetargetofnuclearstrikesifitjoinsNato'sballisticmissiledefencesystemandsimilarthreatshavebeenmadeto
NorwayandPoland.

Russiaissignificantlymodernisingitsnucleararsenal.IthasalsodeployedIskander-MnuclearcapablemissilestoitsKaliningradenclave.This,alongwithincreasinglyaggressiveRussian
airpatrols,isonlyencouragingNatotoenhanceitsowndeterrentcapability.

"WedonotseektomakeRussiaanenemy.Butmakenomistake,wewilldefendourallies,therules-basedinternationalorder,andthepositivefutureitaffordsus."

Headded:"Moscow'snuclearsabre-rattlingraisestroublingquestionsaboutRussia'sleaders'commitmenttostrategicstability,theirrespectfornormsagainsttheuseofnuclearweapons,
andwhethertheyrespecttheprofoundcautionthatnuclear-ageleadersshowedwithregardtobrandishingnuclearweapons."

MrCarteroutlinedplanstodeployathirdUSArmycombatbrigadeinEuropeinthecomingyear.

Hesaiditwaspartofa$3.4bn(2.3bn)initiativetoreassureNatoalliesofUScommitmenttotheirsecurityandtodeterRussianaggression.

"Wehaven'thadtoprioritisedeterrenceonNato'seasternflankforthepast25years,butwhileIwishitwereotherwise,nowwehaveto,"hesaid.
 ImagecopyrightGetty
ImagesImagecaptionTheUSsaysitistodeploymoretroopstoEuropetoworkalongsideNatoallies

RelationsbetweenRussiaandtheWestdeterioratedafterRussiaannexedUkraine'sCrimearegionin2014.

UkraineandtheWesthaveaccusedRussiaofcovertlybackingpro-RussianrebelswhonowcontrolmuchofeasternUkraine.Russiastronglydeniestheclaims.

Lastweek,theUSaccusedaRussianjetfighterofaggressivelyinterceptingaUSAirForcereconnaissanceplaneovertheBalticSea.ItsaidtheRussianjethadperformedabarrelroll.

Earlierlastmonth,twoRussianplanesflewclosetoaUSguidedmissiledestroyeralmostadozentimesintheBaltic.

Russia'senvoytoNatosaidthedestroyerhadsailedclosetotheRussianenclaveofKaliningradinanattempt"toexercisemilitarypressureonRussia".

Correspondentssaysuchencountershaveraisedfearsofafull-onconfrontation,beitdeliberateoraccidental,betweentheworld'stwogreatmilitarypowers.

---------Forwardedmessage----------
From:<sbabs52@verizon.net>
Date:Tue,May3,2016at2:47PM
Subject:TheQuietAmerican
To:DOCKER50@aol.com,ozwdmytrenko@gmail.com,peterterr@yahoo.com,peterpolny@aol.com,PWolowacz@aol.com,wwilczak@msn.com,hryckowianstan@yahoo.com,
waz2102@caa.columbia.edu,george.woloszyn@rhmr.com,Andrika16@aol.com

InterestingreadingmaterialtyingManafortwithUkraine'sOligarchsandYanukovich,andManafort'sconnectionwithTrumpgoingbackto
theAtlanticCitycasinodays.(PublishedbySlateMagazine04-28-16)

TheQuietAmerican
PaulManafortmadeacareeroutofstealthilyreinventingtheworldsnastiesttyrantsasnoble 6.3k
defendersoffreedom.GettingDonaldTrumpelectedwillbeacinch. 1.1k

ByFranklinFoer 584
DonaldTrumpspoliticalstrategistPaulManafort,left,withformerpresidentialcandidateBenCarsonatacampaignreceptiononApril21in
Hollywood,Florida.

JoeRaedle/GettyImages

Mar-a-Lago,DonaldTrumpspalace,isimpressivebythestandardsofPalmBeachlesssowhenjudgedagainsttheabodesoftheworldsautocrats.Itdoesnt,
forinstance,quitecomparewithMezhyhirya,thegildedestateofdeposedUkrainianPresidentVictorYanukovych.Trumpmayhave33bathroomsandthreebomb
shelters,buthismansionlacksaherdofostrich,agalleonparkedinapond,andasetofgoldengolfclubs.Yetthetwopropertiesarelinked,notjustinostentatious
spirit,butbythepresenceofoneman.TrumpandYanukovychhavesharedthesamepoliticalbrain,anoperativenamedPaulManafort.

Ukrainiansusethetermpoliticaltechnologistasafavoredsynonymforelectoralconsultant.TrumpturnedtoManafortforwhatseemedatfirstatechnicaltask:
Manafortknowshowtobullwhipandwheedledelegatesatacontestedconvention.Hesdoneitbefore,assistingGeraldFordinstiflingRonaldReagans
insurgencyattheGOPssummerclassicof1976.Intheconventionsthatfollowed,theRepublicanPartyoftenhandedManafortcontroloftheprogramand
instructedhimtostage-managetheshow.Heproducedthemorning-in-Americaconventionof1984andtheBobDolenostalgia-thonof1996.

GivenManafortsexperienceandskillset,itnevermadesensethathewouldbelimitedtosuchanarrowalbeitcrucialtaskasdelegateaccumulation.Indeed,it
didnttakelongbeforeheattemptedtoseizecontroloftheTrumpoperationmanagingthebudget,buyingadvertising,steeringTrumptowardateleprompterand
awayfromflaminghisopponents,appearingonairasaprimarysurrogate.

SomesawthehiringofManafortasdesperate,asTrumpreachingforarelicfromthedistantpastinthebelatedhopeofcompensatingforahaphazardcampaign
infrastructure.Infact,securingManafortwasacoup.Heisamongthemostsignificantpoliticaloperativesofthepast40years,andoneofthemosteffective.He
hasrevolutionizedlobbyingseveraltimesover,thoughheself-consciouslyrefrainsfrombroadcastinghisinfluence.Unlikehisoldbusinesspartners,RogerStone
andLeeAtwater,youwouldneverdescribeManafortasflamboyant.Hestaysinluxuryhotels,butordersroomserviceandchurnsoutmemos.Whenhedoes
venturefromhissuitefordinnerwithagroup,hellsitattheendofthetableandsaynexttonothing,givingtheimpressionthathereserveshisexpensiveopinions
forprivateconversationswithhisclients.Manafortisapersonwhodoesntnecessarilyshowhimself.Theresnothingegotisticalabouthim,saystheeconomist
AndersAslund,whoadvisedtheUkrainiangovernment.ThelateWashingtonPostcolumnistMaryMcGrorydescribedhimashavingasmooth,noncommittal
manner,thoughshealsonotedhisaggrievedbrowneyes.DespitehisdecadesofamassinginfluenceinWashingtonandotherglobalcapitals,hesneverbeen
thesubjectofafullmagazineprofile.Hedistributesquotestothepressatthetimeandplaceofhischoosing,whichpriortohisarrivalontheTrumpcampaign,was
almostnever.(Indeed,hedidnotrespondtorequeststocommentforthisstory.)

Hisworknecessarilyentailssecrecy.AlthoughhisclientlisthasincludedchunksoftheFortune500,hehasalsobuiltaboomingbusinessworkingwithdictators.
AsRogerStonehasboastedabouttheirnow-disbandedfirm:Black,Manafort,Stone,andKelly,linedupmostofthedictatorsoftheworldwecouldfind.
Dictatorsareintheeyeofthebeholder.ManaforthadaspecialgiftforchanginghowdictatorsarebeheldbyAmericaneyes.Hewouldrecastthemasnoble
heroesveneratedbyWashingtonthinktanks,delugedwithmoneyfromCongress.

PlayingtenniswithYanukovychatMezhyhiryamighthavebeentheculminationofManafortslongcareer.HespentnearlysevenyearscommutingtoKiev.Overthat
stretch,heremadeUkrainianpoliticsandhelpedshiftthecountryintoVladimirPutinssphereofinfluence.Itwasanimpressiveachievement,atleastaccordingto
theethicalcalculusthatgovernsManafortsworld.ButthenalongcameDonaldTrumpanotheroligarchindesperateneedofhisservices.

***

ThegenesisofDonaldTrumpsrelationshipwithPaulManafortbeginswithRoyCohn.ThatRoyCohn:JoeMcCarthysheavy-liddedhenchman,lawyertothe
Genovesefamily.Duringthe70s,TrumpandhisfatherhiredCohnastheirlawyertodefendthefamilyagainstahousingdiscriminationsuit.(Cohnaccusedthe
FedsofusingGestapo-liketactics.)ButCohnandTrumpbecamegenuinepals,lunchingattheFourSeasonsandclubbingtogetheratStudio54.ItwasRoy
CohnwhointroducedStoneandManaforttoTrump.

Duringthosediscoyears,StoneandManafortweretetheredtogether.TheywerebothkidsfromConnecticut,attendingcollegesinWashington,thoughthey
couldnthavebeenmoredifferent.Stonelovedattentionandgarnereditwiththeatricalflair.Hewasabadboy,soi-disant.AsastudentatGeorgeWashington
University,StonemoonlightedfortheNixoncampaignandgravitatedtoJebMagruder,deputydirectoroftheCommitteetoRe-ElectthePresident.Dirtytricks
camenaturallytoStone.HeassumedapseudonymandmadecontributionsonbehalfoftheYoungSocialistAlliancetooneofNixonspotentialchallengers.He
hiredspiestoinfiltratetheMcGoverncampaign.Stonewasntshyabouthishandiwork.Infact,hewasntshyaboutanything.Helovedtositforinterviewsand
vamp.StoneisabodybuildingfanaticwhoposedshirtlessintheNewYorker.Thephotocapturedhisimplantedhair,butnotthetattooofRichardNixononhis
back.

Manaforthadaverydifferentmentor.Hestudiedunderthefuturesecretaryofstate,JamesA.BakerIII,whowieldedhisknifewiththedisciplineofaMarineandthe
polishofaPrincetonian.ItwasagoodfitforManafort,whosharedhismentorspragmaticconservatismandhisthirstforpolitics.(Hisfatherspentsixyearsasthe
mayorofNewBritain,Connecticut,aRepublicanwhoflourishedinDemocraticterrain.)Baker,anavidcollectorofyoungtalent,hadmanagedGeraldFordsre-
electioncampaign.ThatswherehespottedManafortandanointedhimaidedecamp.WhenBakerneededhisownmanagerforhis1978campaigntobecome
attorneygeneralofTexas,hetappedManafort.TheexperienceofwhisperinginBakersearleftalastingimpression.PaulmodeledhimselfafterBaker,oneofhis
friendstoldme.

DespitehisYankeestock,ManafortranReagansSouthernoperation,theraciallytingedappealthatinfamouslybeganinPhiladelphia,Mississippi,thehamlet
wherecivilrightsactivistsweremurderedin1964.Thesuccessofthe1980campaigngaveStoneandManafortcachet.Moreimportant,theyhelpedrunReagans
transitiontopower.Theystockedtheadministration,distributingjobsacrosstheagenciesandaccumulatingowedfavorsthatwouldprovidethebasisfortheirnew
lobbyingbusiness.Theyopenedtheirdoorsin1981.

ManafortandStonepioneeredanewstyleoffirm,whatKStreetwouldcometocalladouble-breastedoperation.Onewingoftheshopmanagedcampaigns,
electingagenerationofRepublicans,fromPhilGrammtoArlenSpector.Theotherwinglobbiedtheofficialstheyhelpedtovictoryonbehalfofitscorporateclients.
Overthecourseoftheirearlyyears,theyamassedaraftofblue-chipbenefactors,includingSalomonBrothersandRupertMurdochsNewsCorp.

AnotherearlyclientwasDonaldJ.Trump.WhatTrumpwantedwashelpfendingoffpotentialrivalstohisAtlanticCitycasinobusiness.Heespeciallyfearedtherise
ofIndiangaming.Asthe2016campaignhasgraphicallyillustrated,Trumpdoesnttreatrivalsgently.Testifyingbeforeacongressionalcommitteein1993,he
beganwithhisroteprotestationsoffriendship.NobodylikesIndiansasmuchasDonaldTrump.Hethenproceededtoworrythatthetribeswouldproveunableto
fendoffgangsters.ThereisnowayIndiansaregoingtoprotectthemselvesfromthemob...Itwillbethebiggestscandalever,thebiggestsinceAlCaponeAn
IndianchiefisgoingtotellJoeyKillertopleasegetoffhisreservation?Itsunbelievabletome.

TrumppouredmoneyintoashellgroupcalledtheNewYorkInstituteforLawandSociety.ThegroupexistedsolelytopublishadssmearinghispotentialIndian
competition.Underdarkphotosofneedlesandotherjunkieparaphernalia,thegroupasserted,TheSt.RegisMohawkIndianrecordofcriminalactivityiswell
documented.(Itwasnt.)Arethesethenewneighborswewant?WeknowthatTrumpandStonewerebehindtheNewYorkInstitutebecauseGov.GeorgePataki
investigateditsdoings.HeslappedTrumpandStonewitha$250,000fineandrequiredthemtopubliclyapologizeforrunningtheads.

ManafortdidntowntheTrumpaccountatthefirm.Butoneofhisformerpartnerstoldmethathewoulddispenseadviceandpitchin,winningTrumpstrust.When
ManaforttookanapartmentinTrumpTowersin2006,hewouldkibitzwithhisoldclientwhentheydrunintooneanotherontheelevator.Trumpknewthisguywas
topdrawer,saysoneRepublicanoperative.

***

ManafortandStonebuiltaglamourfirm.TheBlackinitsnamebelongedtoCharlesBlack,whoasa25-year-oldlaunchedtheSenatecareerofJesseHelms.Later,
theyluredLeeAtwater,theevilgeniuswhowoulddevisetheWillieHortongambitforGeorgeH.W.Bush.Thefirmhadswagger.Intheearly80s,thepartnersspoke
openlytotheWashingtonPostoftheirannual$450,000salaries.AccordingtotheconsultantEdRollins,Blackwouldlaterboastthatthefirmhadschemedtogain
cartel-likecontrolofthe1988Republicanpresidentialprimary.Theymanagedallofthemajorcampaigns.AtwatertookBushBlackranDoleStonehandledJack
Kemp.AcongressionalstafferjokedtoareporterfromTime,Whyhaveprimariesforthenomination?WhynothavethecandidatesgoovertoBlack,Manafortand
Stoneandargueitout?

Manafortactivelyavoidedthespotlight,thoughhehadaknackforgarneringunwantedattention.Hetookonclientsandcausesthatevenmostofhiscolleagueson
KStreetconsideredoutsidetheusualbounds.Black,Manafort,andStonehiredalumnioftheDepartmentofHousingandUrbanDevelopmentthenusedthose
connectionstowin$43millioninmoderaterehabilitationfundsforarenovationprojectinUpperDeerfield,NewJersey.Localofficialshadnointerestinthegrants,
astheyconsideredtheshambleofcinderblockslongpastthepointofrepair.ThemoneyflowedfromHUDregardless,anddeveloperspaidManafortsfirma
$326,000feeforitshandiwork.Helaterboughta20percentshareintheproject.Twoyearslater,rentsdoubledwithoutanysignofimprovement.Conditions
remained,inMaryMcGroryswords,strictlyThirdWorld.Itwassuchanoutrageousscamthatcongressmenflockedtomakeaspectacleofit.Manafortcalmly
tookhisflaying.Youmightcallitinfluence-peddling.Icallitlobbying,heexplainedinonehearing.Thatsadefinitionaldebate.

Strangely,theHUDscandalprovedamarketingboonforthefirm.AnaidetoMobutuSeseSekotoldthejournalistArtLevine,Thatonlyshowshowimportantthey
are!Indeed,ManafortenticedtheAfricandictatortohirethefirm.Manyoftheworldsdictatorseventuallybecamehisclients.NameadictatorandBlack,Manafort
willnametheaccount,Levinewrote.(Levinespiece,publishedinSpy,featuredasidebarrankingtheethicalbehaviorofWashingtonlobbyists:ItfoundBlack,
Manaforttheworstofthebunch.)TheclientlistincludedPhilippinestrongmanFerdinandMarcos(witha$900,000yearlycontract)andthedespotsofthe
DominicanRepublic,Nigeria,Kenya,EquatorialGuinea,andSomalia.WhentheCenterforPublicIntegritydetailedthefirmswork,ittitledthereportThe
TorturersLobby.

Indeed,thefirmwasanall-purposeimage-buffingoperation.AstheWashingtonPosthasreported,Manafortcouldbookhisclientson60MinutesorNightline
andcoachthemtomaketheirbestpitch.HelobbiedCongressforforeignaidthatflowedtohisclientscoffers.Hemightevenprovideafewchoicepiecesof
adviceabouttampingdowndomesticcritics.Manafortunderstoodthemindsetofthedictatorwasntsodifferentfromhiscorporateclients.Accordingtoone
proposalunearthedbycongressionalinvestigators,thefirmboastedofpersonalrelationshipswithadministrationofficialsandpromisedtoupgrade
backchannelstotheU.S.government.

Thiswasntemptyrhetoric.OnaFridayin1985,ChristopherLehmanlefthisjobattheNationalSecurityCouncil.ThefollowingMonday,hewasflyingwith
Manafort,hisnewboss,tothebushofAngolatopitchtheChinese-trainedguerillaJonasSavimbi,whowantedcovertassistancefromtheU.S.tobolsterhis
rebellionagainstAngolasMarxistgovernment.SavimbibrieflyleftabattleagainstCubanassaultforcesandsigneda$600,000contract.

ThemoneyboughtSavimbiarevisedreputation.DespitehisclientsMaoistbackground,Manafortreinventedhimasafreedomfighter.Heknewallthetricksfor
manipulatingright-wingopinion.SavimbiwassenttoaseminarattheAmericanEnterpriseInstitute,hostedbytheanticommuniststalwartJeanneKirkpatrick,a
receptionthrownbytheHeritageFoundation,andanotherconfabatFreedomHouse.(KirkpatrickintroducedSavimbi,whoconscriptedsoldiers,burnedenemies,
andindiscriminatelylaidlandmines,asalinguist,philosopher,poet,politician,warrior...oneofthefewauthenticheroesofourtime.)

Manafortscampaignworkedwonders.HislobbyinghelpedconvinceCongresstosendSavimbihundredsofmillionsincovertaid.Indeed,everytimeAngola
stoodontheprecipiceofpeacetalks,Manafort,Blackworkedtogenerateafreshroundofarmsshipmentsthatmanyexpertsbelieveextendedtheconflict.Sen.
BillBradleywasbluntinassigningblame.WhenGorbachevpulledtheplugonSovietaidtotheAngolangovernment,wehadabsolutelynoreasontopersistin
aidingSavimbi.ButbythenhehadhiredaneffectiveWashingtonlobbyingfirm,whichsuccessfullyobtainedfurtherfunding.OrasArtLevineconcluded,Sothe
warlastedanothertwomoreyearsandclaimedafewthousandmorelives!Sowhat?WhatcountstoaWashingtonlobbyististheabilitytodeliveratangiblevictory
andspruceuphisclientsimage.

***
PaulManafort,afterTrumpdeliveredhisforeignpolicyspeechattheMayflowerHotelinWashington,D.C.,April27,2016.

JimBourg/Reuters

WhopaysPaulManafort?Thequestioncanbedevilishlydifficulttoanswer.HedoesntalwaysfiletheformsdemandedbytheForeignAgentsRegistrationAct.
Andhemaynotevenneedtodisclosewhocutshischecks.Thelawisporous,andovertimerevisionsintheacthavecreatedvariouswaysforlobbyiststohide
theirdeeds.LikeHenryKissinger,Manafortcanclaimthathemerelyconsultswithforeigngovernments,relievinghimofthelegalburdenofannouncinghis
benefactors.

MoneyarrivestoManafortcircuitously,sometimesthroughthedodgiestofroutes.Weknowthisbecauseheadmittedoneinstancetoinvestigators.Iftheresone
placeontheplanetinhospitabletoAmericanpoliticalconsultants,itisFrance.SowhenManafortwroteacampaignstrategyforEduoardBalladurspresidential
campaignin1995,hisrolewaskeptfromthepublic.Paymentstraveledbeneaththetable.Infact,theFrenchinvestigationrevealed,themoneycamefromagood
friendandoldclientofManaforts,aLebanesearmsdealercalledAbdulRahmanal-Assir.(ManaforttookAssirtoGeorgeH.WBushsinaugurationin1989Assir
onceloanedManafort$250,000,astheWashingtonPostreportedthisweek).

Manafortsfeewasasmallpieceofalargerkickbackscheme.Atleast$200,000cametoManafort,someofitviaaccountsinMadrid.Itwaspartofadeal
brokeredbyAssir.HearrangedforFrancetosellPakistanthreeAgostasubmarineswithtensofmillionsofeurosincommissionsreturningtothecoffersofthe
Balladurcampaign.Thescandal,knowninFranceastheKarachiAffair,hashoveredoverthecountryspoliticseversinceitbrokein2010.(TheEnglishex-
wifeofanotherFranco-LebanesearmsdealerinvolvedinlaffairrevealedtheManafortpaymentstoaFrenchjudge.)

ItwasnttheonlytimethatManafortreceivedmoneyfromthePakistanis.MichaelIsikoffhasreportedthatManafortwaspaid$700,000bytheKashmiriAmerican
CouncilostensiblyagrassrootsorganizationadvocatingagainstIndiancontrolofthecontestedborderland.Fundingforthegroup,however,camefromPakistani
intelligence.TheassistantU.S.attorneywhoinvestigatedtheKashmiriAmericanCouncilhascalleditafalseflagoperation.Manafortflewhisownfalseflagsin
thenameofhisstealthclient.In1993,hetraveledtoKashmirtoobtainfootageforavideohisfirmwasproducingonbehalfofthePakistanis.Theworkentailed
interviewingIndianofficials,whowouldhavenevergrantedaccessifManafortannouncedhistruepurpose.Togetinthedoor,heliedabouthisidentity,tellingthe
IndiansthatheworkedforCNN.Manaforthasdeniedthatheevermisrepresentedhimself,buthesooffendedtheIndiangovernmentthataspokesmanforits
foreignministryissuedapublicrebuke:Thewholethingwasobviouslyablatantoperationofproducingtelevisionsoftwarewithadeliberateandparticularlyanti-
IndianslantbylobbyistshiredbyPakistanforthisverypurpose.

***

AmongtheRepublicanestablishment,thereshopethatManafortwillprovetheturnaroundartistwhofixesthemessoftheTrumpcampaign,givingita
professionalismthatnobodycouldhaveexpected.Indeed,hehasatrackrecordofsuccessfullymakingovercandidates,thoughhisgreatestsuccesscameinan
entirelydifferentpoliticalecosystem.

In2005,theUkrainianoligarchRinatAhmetovsummonedManaforttoKiev.AhmetovhailedfromDonetsk,theRussian-orientedheavy-industryeastofthecountry.
Ahmetovhadcauseforpanic.Thebestpoliticalhopeforhisregion,and,moretothepoint,hisownbusinessinterests,wasagruffpoliticiancalledVictor
Yanukovych.Asateen,Yanukovychspentthreeyearsinprisonforrobberyandassault.Afterhisrelease,hewasagainarrestedforassault.Noneofthispast
historytheseyouthfulmistakes,whichheonceinstructedtheKGBtoexpungefromhisrecordslowedhisrisethroughthepoliticalranks.In2002,heserveda
briefstintasprimeministerinascleroticpro-Russiangovernment,miredincorruptionscandals.

WhenAhmetovsummonedManafort,in2005,hiscandidatehadsufferedacrushingdefeat.YanukovychhadjustrunforpresidentofUkraine,acampaignthat
involvedrampantfraudandthepossiblepoisoningofhisopponentwithdioxin.Hisbidendedinmassiveprotestsagainsthimandhiscrudeattemptstooverturn
thewillofthepeople.Theprotests,theOrangeRevolution,wereaburstofoptimismthatUkrainemighttranscenditspastandtakeitsseatasaEuropean-style
democracy.TheyshouldhavedestroyedYanukovychscareer.

FormerprimeministerofUkraineViktorYanukovich,onApril2,2004.

SergeiSupinsky/AFP/GettyImages

Yanukovychseemedahopelesscase.Akleptocraticgoon,apigwhowouldnttakelipstickishowoneAmericanconsultantwhoworkedinUkrainedescribed
him.YetManafortsawhope,aswellasahandsomepaycheck.DespiteYanukovychsSovietstyle,Manafortconsideredhimpoliticalclaythatcouldbemolded.He
sawrawtalentwhereothersdidntandheshapeditbrilliantly,oneformerStateDepartmentofficialtoldme.ManafortsetaboutgivingYanukovychanewlook:well-
tailoredsuits,shirtsandtiesthatmatched,ahaircutthattamedhisragingbouffant.Manaforttaughtthepolafewsimplelessonsthathelpedsanddownhisedges.
Heshowedhimhowtowavetoacrowd,ratherthankeephisarmslockedtohissides.Heinstructedhimtorefrainfromspeakingoffthecuff.Hetaughthimhowto
displayamodicumofempathywhenlisteningtothestoriesofvoters.Ifeelyourpain,Yanukovychwouldnowexclaimathisrallies.OneUkrainiancolumnist
cheekilyaskedhisreaderstoidentifythe10elementsofYanukovychralliesthatManaforthadimportedfromtheRepublicanconventionshedrun.

Thebuffedimagewasbornfromopinionsurveys,conductedbyateamofpollstersManafortbroughttoKiev.HefoundthatthehopeoftheOrangeRevolutionhad
curdledintofrustrationwiththegovernmentsincompetence.SoManafortcraftedanewimageofYanukovychbusinesslike,notlikablebutpersistentthatstood
asapragmaticantidotetothehaplessOrangeRevolutionaries.PeoplebelievedthatwhenYanukovychwasprimeminister,therehadbeenanordertothings,
BrianMefford,aUkraine-basedconsultanttoldme.Thatsthesentimenttheytriedtorunon.

Atthesametime,ManafortunderstoodhowtoaccentuatedivisionsintheUkrainianelectorate.HehadoverseenReagansSouthernstrategyheunderstoodthe
powerofculturalpolarization.HispollingshowedthatYanukovychcouldconsolidatehisbasebystokingsubmergedgrievances.Eventhoughtherewaslittle
evidenceofthemistreatmentofRussianlanguagespeakersbytheUkrainianstate,heencouragedhiscandidatetomakeanissueofimaginedabusestorally
theirbase.Tothesameend,heinstructedYanukovychtorageagainstNATO,whichhedidbycondemningjointoperationsthealliancewasconductinginCrimea.

WhenAmericanAmbassadorWilliamTaylorarrivedinKievin2006,hesummonedManaforttoameetinginhisoffice.Manafortwouldbecomeafixtureinthe
officesofAmericanambassadorstoUkraine,theU.S.governmentsprimaryconduittoYanukovychandthepro-Russiancamp.AsTaylortoldagroupofAmerican
democracyactivistsjustafterthemeeting,hehadaskedManaforttotampdownYanukovychscriticismsofthejointoperationsNATOwasconductingwiththe
Ukrainians.Theimplicationsofhisaskwereclear:TheinterestsofAmericansecuritywerehurtbysuchrhetoric.AmericantoAmerican,Imaskingyoutotalkto
him.Manafortscoffedatthenotion.HebluntlyannouncedthathewouldntaskYanukovychtodialbacktherhetoric.Itpolledtoowell.

Tobefair,ManafortwashardlytheonlyAmericaninYanukovychsorbit.BernieSandersconsultantTadDevinewenttoworkforhimin2009.Ukrainiansspent
heavilyinWashington,hiringasmallarmyoftop-drawerRepublicanlobbyists,includingformercongressmenVinWeberandBillyTauzin,tobolsterYanukovychs
imageinWashingtonandultimatelystaveoffAmericansupportforUkrainiandemocracy.ButManafortsetupthelargestshopinKiev,housedinawell-guarded
officejustoffIndependenceSquare.Duringelections,hisoperationswelledtosixAmericanconsultants,inadditiontoUkrainiantranslatorsanddrivers.He
procuredaspecialroleintheYanukovychcamp.AndersAslundtoldme,ManafortbecameYanukovychsclosestpoliticaladvisor.

***

In2005,JohnMcCainreceivedacallfromastafferontheNationalSecurityCouncil.Therewasaproblem,thestaffertoldthesenator.Themanorchestrating
McCainspresidentialcampaignwasPaulManafortspartner,alobbyistnamedRickDavis.Theadministrationwantedthesenatorshelpdialingbacktheduos
workinUkraine,twotopMcCainaidestoldme.BypromotingenemiesoftheOrangeRevolution,theywereunderminingAmericanpolicy.

ThecallcameafterManafortandDavishadalreadydrawnMcCainintotheireasternescapades.ItwasntjustUkraine.Thatyear,thepairhadconsultedonbehalf
ofpro-independenceforcesinthetinyprincipalityofMontenegro,whichwantedtoexitSerbiaandbecomeitsownsovereignrepublic.Onthesurface,thissounded
nobleenough,sonoblethatMcCaincalledMontenegrosindependencethegreatestEuropeandemocracyprojectsincetheendoftheColdWar.
AreportintheNation,however,showedthattheMontenegrincampaignwasntremotelywhatMcCaindescribed.Theindependenceinitiativewaschampionedby
afantasticallywealthyRussianmogulcalledOlegDeripaska.Deripaskahadparochialreasonsforpromotingindependence.HehadjustpurchasedMontenegros
aluminumindustryandintendedtobuybroaderswathsofitseconomy.ButhewasalsodoingthebiddingofVladimirPutin,onwhosegoodgracesthefateofall
Russianbusinessultimatelyhangs.TheNationquotedDeripaskaboastingthattheKremlinwantedanareaofinfluenceintheMediterranean.

ManafortandDavisdidntjustsnookerMcCainintotrumpetingtheirclientscausetheyendangeredhimpolitically,byarrangingaseriesofmeetingswith
Deripaska,whotheU.S.hadbarredfromenteringthecountrybecauseofhistiestoorganizedcrime.In2006,theysteeredMcCaintoattendadinnerwiththe
oligarchatachaletnearDavos,whereDeripaskaspeechifiedforthe40orsoguests.(TheWashingtonPostreportedthattheoligarchsentDavisandManaforta
thank-younoteforarrangingtoseethesenatorinsuchanintimatesetting.)Sevenmonthslater,ManafortandDavistookMcCaintocelebratehis70thbirthday
withDeripaskaonayachtmooredintheAdriatic.

NoteveryonewithintheMcCaincampfeltcomfortablewiththisrelationship.OnegroupofaidespushedhardforMcCaintofireRickDavisforsullyingthesenator
withthefirmsmuck.McCainintendedtodojustthat.ThesenatorhadbackedthecauseofUkrainiandemocracyandhecouldntstomachhistopaidesfirm
workingtoundermineit.Whatsmore,aideshadcometoMcCainwiththerumorthatDeripaskahadpurchasedanapartmentinTrumpTowerforDavisand
Manafort.Butinthemoment,McCainlosthisnerve,ashisaideshaverecountedtheepisode.Davissuppliedatear-filledsoliloquythatsavedhisjob.Ricksplea
somehowworkedandthatwastherootofthedivisionsthattoreapartthecampaign,oneofMcCainstopadviserstoldme.

ItwasjustunsubstantiatedhearsaythatDeripaskahadpaidforManafortsflat.YetMcCainaideswererighttosuspecttherelationship.ManafortandDaviswere
hungryfortheoligarchscash.AstheWashingtonPostreported,theyevenconvincedDeripaskatoinvestina$200millionprivateequityfundtheycreated.For
theirefforts,DeripaskapaidDavis,Manafort,andanotheroneoftheirpartnersa$7.5millionmanagementfee.Butapparentlytheydidntdoverymuchmanaging,
orinvestingeither.WhenDeripaskaaskedforanauditofthefundin2008,ManafortandDavisneverdeliveredone.Infact,accordingtoacomplaintthat
Deripaskafiledincourt,DavisandManafortprovidednoadditionalupdates.Deripaskawasdesperatetogethismoneybackwhich,thePostnoted,coincided
withManafortsstrangedisappearancefrompublicview.Atthetime,RogerStonewrotefriendsacrypticemailtitled,WheresPaulManafort?Hesupplieda
multiple-choicesetofanswersincludingWasseenchauffeuringYanukovycharoundMoscowandWasseenloadinggoldbulliononanArmyTransportplanefrom
aremoteairstripoutsideKievandtakingoffsecondsbeforeamobarrivedatthesite.

DeripaskawasnttheonlydubiousoligarchtoinvestwithManafort.HeorchestratedamajordealwithaUkrainiancalledDmitryFirtash.Afiremanandsoldier,
Firtashfoundwaystoflourishinthepost-Sovieteconomyasamiddleman,sellingnaturalgasbyhisownadmission,hedidsothankstohisconnectionswith
SeymonMogilevich,theRussianMafiasbossofbosses.

ButhiscrucialconnectionwastoVladimirPutin.FirtashsgrandschemewasdetailedinathoroughinvestigationpublishedbyReuters.Gazprom,theRussian
state-ownednaturalgasconglomerate,wouldselltoFirtashatadeepdiscount.Firtash,inturn,resoldthegastotheUkrainiangovernment,investingtheprofitin
fundingforpro-Putinpoliticians,includingVictorYanukovych.

ReuterswasbluntindescribingtheperniciouseffectofFirtashsdealings:

ItdemonstrateshowPutinusesRussianstateassetstocreatestreamsofcashforpoliticalallies,andhowheexportedthismodeltoUkraineinanattempt
todominatehisneighbour,whichheseesasvitaltoRussiasstrategicinterests.WiththehelpofFirtash,Yanukovichwonpowerandwentontorule

Ukraineforfouryears.TherelationshiphadgreatgeopoliticalvalueforPutin:Yanukovichendedupsteeringthenationofmorethan44millionawayfrom
theWestsorbitandtowardsMoscowsuntilhewasoverthrowninFebruary.

AfterFirtashmadebillionsoffthescheme,heandManafortpartneredtobuythesiteoftheoldDrakeHotelonParkAvenue.WithalongtimeTrumpfamilyaide
andthedeveloperArthurCohen,ManafortandFirtashhatchedagrandplan.TheycalledtheirprojecttheBulgariTower,anditwouldfeatureamall,privateclub,
andspa.Oratleastthatswhattheydescribedintheirplans.In2008,Firtashwired$25milliontoNewYorktobankrolltheproject.Accordingtocourtdocuments,
healsosetupa$100millioninvestmentfund,payingManafortandhispartnersa$1.5millionfeeformanagingthemoney.

ItwasagoodmomentforFirtashtoparkhiscashinManhattan.Hisarch-enemyYuliaTymoshenko,anoldnaturalgasbrokerherself,hadcometopowerayear
earlier.ShemovedaggressivelyagainstFirtash,whosecompanyshedescribedasawartonthebody.ShecutherowndealwithPutinforthesupplyofenergy,
eliminatingFirtashfromthebusiness.Andsheseizedhismassivestockpileofgas,effectivelynationalizingthesourceofhisfortune.

DefeatingTymoshenkothusbecameFirtashsprimarygoalinlife.HespentheavilyonYanukovychscampaignagainstherin2010.FortunatelyforFirtash,
Manafortwasonthejob.WhentheconsultantfirstarrivedinKiev,Yanukovychwasthesubjectofnearuniversalderision.ButhisyearsofgroomingYanukovych,and
perfectinghispoliticalmachinery,carriedhimtovictoryanarrowwinrootedinthemisstepsofhisopponents,butonethatwouldhaveneverhappenedwithout
skilledreinvention.Marvelingatthisaccomplishment,theUkranianjournalistMustafaNayeemwrotethatManafortwastheonlypersonwhoreallyadaptedto
Ukrainianpoliticalreality.

AssoonasYanukovychcametopower,herestoredFirtashsbusiness.Mostimportant,thenewgovernmentsettledalawsuitthatFirtashhadfiledobjectingto
Tymoshenkosseizureofhisgas.Aspartofthesettlement,thegovernmenthanded$3billionworthofnaturalgastoFirtash:hisoldstashplusanextrabillioncubic
metersofgasthrownintothedealascompensationforhistroubles.DerSpiegel,whichreviewedthetextofthesettlement,concluded,ViktorYanukovych,the
presidentofUkraine,servedthecommercialinterestsofanoligarchwithwhomhehasclosetiesattheexpenseofhisowncountry.And,indoingso,healsodid
Moscowafavor.

AsforBulgariTower,theprojectsputteredandshutteredinJanuary2009.YuliaTymosehnkodidntlikethesmellofthings.ShesuedManafortandFirtashfor
racketeeringintheSouthernDistrictofNewYork.Themoneykeptgoinginandout,herlawyerKennethMcCalliontoldme.Realestatewastheostensiblereason
forsendingmoneytoNewYork.Buttheyneverwantedtocloseontheproject,theywantedtokeepthecashliquid,soitcouldkeepgoingbacktoUkraine.Thesuit
neverhadmuchofachance,becauseitdidntofferenoughsupportingevidencetojustifyitsgrandioseclaim:thatManafortandFirtashwerelaunderingmoneyto
financehumanrightsabusesonagrandscale.Buthercaseraisedallmanneroftroublingquestions,andreinforcedanoldone:WhywouldPaulManafortso
consistentlydothebiddingofoligarchsloyaltoVladimirPutin?

***

ThatshardlyaquestiontobotherDonaldTrump,whohasprofessedhisownadmirationforPutinsbare-chestedleadership.Overmonthsoftweetsandtaunts,
DonaldTrumphasterrifiedmostoftheRepublicanestablishment,whoviewhimasabrand-shatteringelectoraldebacleinthemaking.ButthatspreciselywhyPaul
Manaforthasgravitatedtowardhim,andwhatmakestheclientsuchaperfectmatchfortheconsultant.

TopComment

Myfencingcontractortoldmetodayhe'svotingforTrump.Abitironicsincehe'sHispanicandhisfathercamefromMexico.Alsoironicthathe'sbuildingmea
fence.NowifIcanonlymakehimpayforit.More...

584CommentsJoinIn

Manaforthasspentacareerworkingonbehalfofclientsthattherestofhisfellowlobbyistsandstrategistshavedeemedjustbelowtheirnot-so-highmoral
threshold.Manaforthasconsistentlygivenhisclientsapatinaofrespectabilitythathasallowedthemtomigrateintothemainstreamofopinion,orcloseenoughto
themainstream.Hehasaparticularknackfortakingautocratsandpresentingthemasdefendersofdemocracy.Ifhecouldconvincetherespectableworldthat
thugslikeSavimbiandMarcosarefriendsofAmerica,thenwhynotdothesameforTrump?Oneofhisfriendstoldme,Hewantedtodohisthingonhometurf.He
wantedonelastshotatthebigprize.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:CliffKincaid<kincaid@comcast.net>
Date:Tue,May3,2016at3:26PM
Subject:GeneralsWarnofRussianAggressionAsTrumpCoziesUpToPutin
To:"Zaryckyj,Walter"<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

GeneralsWarnofRussianAggressionAsTrumpCoziesUpToPutin
ByCliffKincaid

http://www.aim.org/aim-column/generals-warn-of-russian-aggression-as-trump-cozies-up-to-putin/

WhileRepublicanpresidentialcandidateDonaldJ.TrumpistalkingaboutcooperationwithRussia,TheWallStreetJournalisreportingthatoneofAmericastopgenerals,NATO
SupremecommanderGeneralPhilipBreedlove,issayingthattheUnitedStatesanditsallieshavetoimmediatelyaddressRussianmilitaryaggression.

WeseethatRussiahasnotacceptedthehandofpartnershipbuthaschosenapathofbelligerence,Breedloveisquotedbythepaperassaying.Weneedtoreaddresswherewere
heading.BreedloveisretiringasNATOsupremecommanderandcommanderofU.S.EuropeanCommand.

Bycontrast,TrumprecentlygaveaforeignpolicyaddressthatcompletelyignoredRussianaggressioninUkraine,leadingtoawarmreceptioninMoscowfortheRepublicancandidate.

ThecuriousomissionbyTrumpisoneofseveralactionsorstatementshehasmadeonRussianaffairsthatledJonathanChaittowriteanarticleforNewYorkmagazineentitled,WhyIs
DonaldTrumpaPatsyforVladimirPutin?AttemptingtoexplainTrumpsstatementsofsupportforRussianPresidentPutin,hecitedevidenceofRussiascampaigntocultivateinfluence
intheWestbycorruptingmembersoftheAmericanmediaandpoliticalEstablishment.

InadditiontoRussianaggressioninEuropeandtheMiddleEast,Breedlovessuccessor,ArmyGeneralCurtisScaparrotti,saysthatU.S.militaryleadersshouldkeepeverythingonthe
table,includingamilitaryresponse,ifRussiaengagesinmoremilitaryprovocationsdirectlyagainstU.S.forces.SuchincidentshaveincludedRussianfighterjetsharassingU.S.Navy
ships.

ThegeneralsaidthatPutinisdeliberatelytryingtobreakupNATO,apro-AmericanalliancethatTrumphassuggestedisobsolete.

InitsstoryonhowU.S.militaryleadersaregettingincreasinglyconcernedaboutRussiasaggressiveintentions,theJournalexplained,InthewakeofRussiasstealthyinvasionand
annexationofCrimea,theU.S.intelligencecommunity,inparticularmilitaryintelligence,cameunderwitheringcriticismforhavingfailedtoadequatelywarnpolicymakersandmilitary
leaders.

ThetermmilitaryintelligenceismostlyareferencetotheDefenseIntelligenceAgency(DIA),whoseformerdirector,Lt.Gen.MichaelT.Flynn,hascomeunderfireforhisclose
relationshipwiththeRussiaToday(RT)propagandachannel.

AIMwasthefirsttoreportthatFlynn,aftersteppingdownfromDIA,wenttoMoscowtoparticipateinthe10thanniversarycelebrationoftheMoscow-fundedandEnglish-language
channelknowntoitscriticsasKGB-TV.HesatatadinnertablewithPutinandRTeditor-in-chiefMargaritaSimonyan.

InamajorembarrassmentforFlynn,arecentarticleinPoliticobyMichaelCrowleycitedFlynnsrelationshipwithRTasthemostintriguingexampleofhowtheRussianshavegone
aboutrecruitingdisaffectedmembersoftheWashington,D.C.foreignpolicyestablishment.

ThetermrecruitingsuggestsusingFlynnforanti-Americanpropagandapurposes.

Crowley,seniorforeignpolicywriteratPolitico,saidthatFlynnsattendanceattheRTgala,whichalsoincludedremarksonworldaffairs,appearedtoinauguratearelationshipwiththe
networkpresumablyapaidone,thoughneitherFlynnnorRTansweredqueriesonthesubject.Flynnnowmakessemi-regularappearancesonRTasananalyst,inwhichheoftenargues
thattheU.S.andRussiashouldbeworkingmorecloselytogetheronissueslikefightingISILandendingSyriascivilwar.

InadditiontohisrelationshipwithRT,FlynnhasdescribedhimselfasaninformaladvisertoTrump,whoalreadyhasseveralpro-Russianaidesandadvisers.

WewerentfocusedonRussiawhenIcameinthreeyearsagobecausewewerestilltryingtocastaparadigmthatbroughtRussiaintothefoldofWesternvalues,saidBreedlove,inan
attempttoexplainwhythePentagonwascaughtoff-guardbyRussia.Hesaid,Russiachoseadifferentpathortheywereonthatpathandwedidntrecognizeit.

WhatheisdescribingisamassiveintelligencefailurethatcouldstemfromtheworkofagentsofinfluenceforRussia,oractualRussianspies.

Trump,however,continuestopreachcooperationwithRussia.

ThescopeoftheintelligencefailureregardingRussiawasaddressedrecentlybythechairmanoftheHouseIntelligenceCommittee,Rep.DevinNunes(R-CA),whoadmittedtoCNNs
JakeTapperonApril12thattheU.S.governmenthasbadlymisjudgedtheintentionsofPutinformany,manyyears.Hedeclared,Thebiggestintelligencefailurethatwehavehad
since9/11hasbeentheinabilitytopredicttheleadershipplansandintentionsofthePutinregimeinRussia.

AftertheRussianinvasionofGeorgiain2008,Rep.Nunesnoted,theU.S.continuedtoengagediplomaticallywiththeRussians,andwecontinuedtotalktotheRussians,andthenthey
invadedEasternUkraine.Wemissedthat,hesaid.Andthenwecompletelymissedentirelywhentheyputanewbase,anewbasewithaircraftintotheMediterranean,intoSyria.We
justmissedit.Wewereblind.

WhileTrumpsspeechwasgiventoanaudienceofforeignpolicyexperts,includingRussia'sambassadortoWashington,SergeyKislyakwhowassittinginthefrontrowtheformer
DIAdirectorspro-Moscowactionsandstatementsarealsogeneratingcontroversy.ThePoliticoarticleonFlynnsvisittoMoscowsaid,Atamomentofsemi-hostilitybetweentheU.S.
andRussia,thepresenceofsuchanimportantfigureatPutinstablestartledcurrentandformermembersoftheObamaadministration.

PoliticosMichaelCrowleyquotedaformerPentagonofficialassayingaboutFlynn,ItwasextremelyoddthatheshowedupinatuxedototheRussiangovernmentpropagandaarms
party.

EvenmoresignificantistheverdictdeliveredbyNewYorkmagazinesChaitregardingTrumphimself.HesaysthatwhileTrumpsstyleandbombasticstatementsonforeignpolicyand
otherareasareconsideredcontroversialbysome,themuchbiggerscandalmaybethatTrumpisVladimirPutinsstooge.ThestorycarriedtheimplicationthatTrumpisactinglikean
agentofinfluenceforPutinsRussia.

ThefailuresintheintelligencecommunityregardingRussiaandtheallegedpenetrationoftheWashington,D.C.foreignpolicyestablishmentbyRussianagentsseemliketopicsthatneedto
beaddressedbytheHouseandSenateIntelligenceCommittees.

Ultimately,however,theAmericanpeoplemayhavetoweightheevidence,sincepresidentialcandidatesdonthavetopassFBIbackgroundcheckstodeterminetheirsuitabilityforpublic
office.

ChaitdescribedtheTrump-Putinrelationshipascampaign-threatening,achargethatcouldhandtheNovemberelectiontoformerSecretaryofStateHillaryClintonifTrumpsecuresthe
GOPnomination,andifheisperceivedtobefriendlywithaU.S.adversaryorenemy.

IfTrumpisperceivedasanagentofinfluenceforPutin,theRepublicanPartycouldbegreatlyembarrassedandMrs.Clintoncouldcomeacrossasmoresolidinherknowledgeand
conductofforeignaffairs,despiteherclassifiedemailscandalandforeignpolicyfailuressuchasBenghazi.

CliffKincaidistheDirectoroftheAIMCenterforInvestigativeJournalism,andcanbecontactedatcliff.kincaid@aim.org

 From: Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 04/28/201606:40:34AM
To: DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>
Subject: TrumponForeignPolicy

TrumponForeignPolicy

EditorsNote:RepublicanpresidentialcandidateDonaldTrumpdeliveredthefollowingspeechonforeignpolicy
ataneventhostedbytheNationalInterestonWednesday,April27.

Thankyoufortheopportunitytospeaktoyou,andthankyoutotheCenterfortheNationalInterestforhonoringmewith
thisinvitation.

Iwouldliketotalktodayabouthowtodevelopanewforeignpolicydirectionforourcountryonethatreplaces
randomnesswithpurpose,ideologywithstrategy,andchaoswithpeace.

ItistimetoshaketherustoffofAmericasforeignpolicy.It'stimetoinvitenewvoicesandnewvisionsintothefold.

ThedirectionIwilloutlinetodaywillalsoreturnustoatimelessprinciple.Myforeignpolicywillalwaysputtheinterestsof
theAmericanpeople,andAmericansecurity,aboveallelse.ThatwillbethefoundationofeverydecisionthatIwillmake.
AmericaFirstwillbethemajorandoverridingthemeofmyadministration.Buttochartourpathforward,wemustfirst
brieflylookback.

Wehavealottobeproudof.Inthe1940swesavedtheworld.TheGreatestGenerationbeatbacktheNazisandthe
JapaneseImperialists.Thenwesavedtheworldagain,thistimefromtotalitarianCommunism.TheColdWarlastedfor
decades,butwewon.DemocratsandRepublicansworkingtogethergotMr.GorbachevtoheedthewordsofPresident
Reaganwhenhesaid:teardownthiswall.Historywillnotforgetwhatwedid.

Unfortunately,aftertheColdWar,ourforeignpolicyveeredbadlyoffcourse.Wefailedtodevelopanewvisionforanew
time.Infact,astimewenton,ourforeignpolicybegantomakelessandlesssense.Logicwasreplacedwithfoolishness
andarrogance,andthisledtooneforeignpolicydisasterafteranother.WewentfrommistakesinIraqtoEgypttoLibya,
toPresidentObamaslineinthesandinSyria.Eachoftheseactionshavehelpedtothrowtheregionintochaos,andgave
ISISthespaceitneedstogrowandprosper.

ItallbeganwiththedangerousideathatwecouldmakeWesterndemocraciesoutofcountriesthathadnoexperienceor
interestinbecomingaWesterndemocracy.Wetoreupwhatinstitutionstheyhadandthenweresurprisedatwhatwe
unleashed.Civilwar,religiousfanaticismthousandsofAmericanlives,andmanytrillionsofdollars,werelostasaresult.
ThevacuumwascreatedthatISISwouldfill.Iran,too,wouldrushinandfillthevoid,muchtotheirunjustenrichment.

Ourforeignpolicyisacompleteandtotaldisaster.Novision,nopurpose,nodirection,nostrategy.

Today,Iwanttoidentifyfivemainweaknessesinourforeignpolicy.

First,OurResourcesAreOverextended

PresidentObamahasweakenedourmilitarybyweakeningoureconomy.Hescrippleduswithwastefulspending,
massivedebt,lowgrowth,ahugetradedeficitandopenborders.Ourmanufacturingtradedeficitwiththeworldisnow
approaching$1trillionayear.Wererebuildingothercountrieswhileweakeningourown.EndingthetheftofAmerican
jobswillgiveustheresourcesweneedtorebuildourmilitaryandregainourfinancialindependenceandstrength.Iamthe
onlypersonrunningforthePresidencywhounderstandsthisproblemandknowshowtofixit.
Secondly,ouralliesarenotpayingtheirfairshare.

Ouralliesmustcontributetowardthefinancial,politicalandhumancostsofourtremendoussecurityburden.Butmanyof
themaresimplynotdoingso.TheylookattheUnitedStatesasweakandforgivingandfeelnoobligationtohonortheir
agreementswithus.InNATO,forinstance,only4of28othermembercountries,besidesAmerica,arespendingthe
minimumrequired2percentofGDPondefense.

Wehavespenttrillionsofdollarsovertimeonplanes,missiles,ships,equipmentbuildingupourmilitarytoprovidea
strongdefenseforEuropeandAsia.Thecountrieswearedefendingmustpayforthecostofthisdefenseand,ifnot,the
U.S.mustbepreparedtoletthesecountriesdefendthemselves.Thewholeworldwillbesaferifouralliesdotheirpartto
supportourcommondefenseandsecurity.ATrumpadministrationwillleadafreeworldthatisproperlyarmedand
funded.

Thirdly,ourfriendsarebeginningtothinktheycantdependonus.

Wevehadapresidentwhodislikesourfriendsandbowstoourenemies.HenegotiatedadisastrousdealwithIran,and
thenwewatchedthemignoreitsterms,evenbeforetheinkwasdry.Irancannotbeallowedtohaveanuclearweapon
and,underaTrumpadministration,willneverbeallowedtohaveanuclearweapon.Allofthiswithoutevenmentioning
thehumiliationoftheUnitedStateswithIranstreatmentofourtencapturedsailors.

Innegotiation,youmustbewillingtowalk.TheIrandeal,likesomanyofourworstagreements,istheresultofnotbeing
willingtoleavethetable.Whentheothersideknowsyourenotgoingtowalk,itbecomesabsolutelyimpossibletowin.
Atthesametime,yourfriendsneedtoknowthatyouwillstickbytheagreementsthatyouhavewiththem.

PresidentObamaguttedourmissiledefenseprogram,thenabandonedourmissiledefenseplanswithPolandandthe
CzechRepublic.HesupportedtheousterofafriendlyregimeinEgyptthathadalongstandingpeacetreatywithIsrael
andthenhelpedbringtheMuslimBrotherhoodtopowerinitsplace.

Israel,ourgreatfriendandtheonetruedemocracyintheMiddleEast,hasbeensnubbedandcriticizedbyan
administrationthatlacksmoralclarity.Justafewdaysago,VicePresidentBidenagaincriticizedIsraelaforceforjustice
andpeaceforactingasanimpedimenttopeaceintheregion.PresidentObamahasnotbeenafriendtoIsrael.Hehas
treatedIranwithtenderloveandcareandmadeitagreatpowerintheMiddleEastallattheexpenseofIsrael,our
otheralliesintheregionand,critically,theUnitedStates.

Wevepickedfightswithouroldestfriends,andnowtheyrestartingtolookelsewhereforhelp.

Fourth,ourrivalsnolongerrespectus.

Infact,theyarejustasconfusedasourallies,butanevenbiggerproblemisthattheydonttakeusseriouslyanymore.
WhenPresidentObamalandedinCubaonAirForceOne,noleaderwastheretomeetorgreethimperhapsan
incidentwithoutprecedentinthelongandprestigioushistoryofAirForceOne.Then,amazingly,thesamethinghappened
inSaudiArabia--it'scallednorespect.DoyourememberwhenthePresidentmadealongandexpensivetripto
Copenhagen,DenmarktogettheOlympicsforourcountry,and,afterthisunprecedentedeffort,itwasannouncedthatthe
UnitedStatescameinfourthplace?Heshouldhaveknowntheresultbeforemakingsuchanembarrassingcommitment.

Thelistofhumiliationsgoesonandon.PresidentObamawatcheshelplesslyasNorthKoreaincreasesitsaggressionand
expandsevenfurtherwithitsnuclearreach.OurpresidenthasallowedChinatocontinueitseconomicassaulton
Americanjobsandwealth,refusingtoenforcetraderulesorapplytheleverageonChinanecessarytoreininNorth
Korea.HehasevenallowedChinatostealgovernmentsecretswithcyberattacksandengageinindustrialespionage
againsttheUnitedStatesanditscompanies.
Weveletourrivalsandchallengersthinktheycangetawaywithanything.IfPresidentObamasgoalhadbeentoweaken
America,hecouldnothavedoneabetterjob.

Finally,Americanolongerhasaclearunderstandingofourforeignpolicygoals.

SincetheendoftheColdWarandthebreak-upoftheSovietUnion,wevelackedacoherentforeignpolicy.Oneday
werebombingLibyaandgettingridofadictatortofosterdemocracyforcivilians,thenextdaywearewatchingthesame
civilianssufferwhilethatcountryfallsapart.

We'reahumanitariannation.ButthelegacyoftheObama-Clintoninterventionswillbeweakness,confusion,anddisarray.
WehavemadetheMiddleEastmoreunstableandchaoticthaneverbefore.WeleftChristianssubjecttointense
persecutionandevengenocide.OuractionsinIraq,LibyaandSyriahavehelpedunleashISIS.Andwereinawar
againstradicalIslam,butPresidentObamawontevennametheenemy!HillaryClintonalsorefusestosaythewords
radicalIslam,evenasshepushesforamassiveincreaseinrefugees.AfterSecretaryClintonsfailedinterventionin
Libya,IslamicterroristsinBenghazitookdownourconsulateandkilledourambassadorandthreebraveAmericans.
Then,insteadoftakingchargethatnight,HillaryClintondecidedtogohomeandsleep!Incredible.Clintonblamesitallon
avideo,anexcusethatwasatotallie.OurambassadorwasmurderedandourSecretaryofStatemisledthenationand
bytheway,shewasnotawaketotakethatcallat3o'clockinthemorning.AndnowISISismakingmillionsofdollarsa
weeksellingLibyanoil.

ThiswillchangewhenIampresident.

Toallourfriendsandallies,IsayAmericaisgoingtobestrongagain.Americaisgoingtobeareliablefriendandally
again.WeregoingtofinallyhaveacoherentforeignpolicybaseduponAmericaninterests,andthesharedinterestsofour
allies.Wearegettingoutofthenation-buildingbusiness,andinsteadfocusingoncreatingstabilityintheworld.Our
momentsofgreateststrengthcamewhenpoliticsendedatthewatersedge.Weneedanew,rationalAmericanforeign
policy,informedbythebestmindsandsupportedbybothparties,aswellasbyourcloseallies.Thisishowwewonthe
ColdWar,anditshowwewillwinournewandfuturestruggles.

First,weneedalong-termplantohaltthespreadandreachofradicalIslam.

ContainingthespreadofradicalIslammustbeamajorforeignpolicygoaloftheUnitedStates.Eventsmayrequirethe
useofmilitaryforce.Butitsalsoaphilosophicalstruggle,likeourlongstruggleintheColdWar.Inthisweregoingtobe
workingverycloselywithouralliesintheMuslimworld,allofwhichareatriskfromradicalIslamicviolence.

WeshouldworktogetherwithanynationintheregionthatisthreatenedbytheriseofradicalIslam.Butthishastobea
two-waystreettheymustalsobegoodtousandrememberusandallwearedoingforthem.Thestruggleagainst
radicalIslamalsotakesplaceinourhomeland.Therearescoresofrecentmigrantsinsideourborderschargedwith
terrorism.Foreverycaseknowntothepublic,therearedozensmore.Wemuststopimportingextremismthrough
senselessimmigrationpolicies.ApauseforreassessmentwillhelpustopreventthenextSanBernardinoorworseall
youhavetodoislookattheWorldTradeCenterandSeptember11.

AndthentheresISIS.Ihaveasimplemessageforthem.Theirdaysarenumbered.IwonttellthemwhereandIwont
tellthemhow.Wemustas,anation,bemoreunpredictable.Buttheyregoingtobegone.Andsoon.

Secondly,wehavetorebuildourmilitaryandoureconomy.

TheRussiansandChinesehaverapidlyexpandedtheirmilitarycapability,butlookwhatshappenedtous!Ournuclear
weaponsarsenalourultimatedeterrenthasbeenallowedtoatrophyandisdesperatelyinneedofmodernizationand
renewal.Ouractivedutyarmedforceshaveshrunkfrom2millionin1991toabout1.3milliontoday.TheNavyhas
shrunkfromover500shipsto272shipsduringthattime.TheAirForceisaboutone-thirdsmallerthan1991.Pilotsare
flyingB-52sincombatmissionstodaywhichareolderthanmostpeopleinthisroom.

Andwhatarewedoingaboutthis?PresidentObamahasproposeda2017defensebudgetthat,inrealdollars,cuts
nearly25percentfromwhatwewerespendingin2011.Ourmilitaryisdepleted,andwereaskingourgeneralsand
militaryleaderstoworryaboutglobalwarming.Wewillspendwhatweneedtorebuildourmilitary.Itisthecheapest
investmentwecanmake.Wewilldevelop,buildandpurchasethebestequipmentknowntomankind.Ourmilitary
dominancemustbeunquestioned.

Butwewilllookforsavingsandspendourmoneywisely.Inthistimeofmountingdebt,notonedollarcanbewasted.We
arealsogoingtohavetochangeourtrade,immigrationandeconomicpoliciestomakeoureconomystrongagainand
toputAmericansfirstagain.Thiswillensurethatourownworkers,righthereinAmerica,getthejobsandhigherpaythat
willgrowourtaxrevenueandincreaseoureconomicmightasanation.Weneedtothinksmarteraboutareaswhereour
technologicalsuperioritygivesusanedge.Thisincludes3-Dprinting,artificialintelligenceandcyberwarfare.

Agreatcountryalsotakescareofitswarriors.Ourcommitmenttothemisabsolute.ATrumpadministrationwillgiveour
servicemenandwomenthebestequipmentandsupportintheworldwhentheyserve,andthebestcareintheworld
whentheyreturnasveteranstocivilianlife.

Finally,wemustdevelopaforeignpolicybasedonAmericaninterests.

Businessesdonotsucceedwhentheylosesightoftheircoreinterestsandneitherdocountries.

Lookatwhathappenedinthe1990s.OurembassiesinKenyaandTanzaniawereattackedandseventeenbravesailors
werekilledontheUSSCole.Andwhatdidwedo?ItseemedweputmoreeffortintoaddingChinatotheWorldTrade
OrganizationwhichhasbeenadisasterfortheUnitedStatesthanintostoppingAlQaeda.Weevenhadan
opportunitytotakeoutOsamaBinLaden,anddidntdoit.Andthen,wegothitattheWorldTradeCenterandthe
Pentagon,theworstattackonourcountryinitshistory.

OurforeignpolicygoalsmustbebasedonAmericascorenationalsecurityinterests,andthefollowingwillbemy
priorities.IntheMiddleEast,ourgoalsmustbetodefeatterroristsandpromoteregionalstability,notradicalchange.We
needtobeclear-sightedaboutthegroupsthatwillneverbeanythingotherthanenemies.Andwemustonlybegenerous
tothosethatprovetheyareourfriends.

WedesiretolivepeacefullyandinfriendshipwithRussiaandChina.Wehaveseriousdifferenceswiththesetwonations,
andmustregardthemwithopeneyes.Butwearenotboundtobeadversaries.Weshouldseekcommongroundbased
onsharedinterests.Russia,forinstance,hasalsoseenthehorrorofIslamicterrorism.

IbelieveaneasingoftensionsandimprovedrelationswithRussiafromapositionofstrengthispossible.Common
sensesaysthiscycleofhostilitymustend.SomesaytheRussianswontbereasonable.Iintendtofindout.Ifwecant
makeagooddealforAmerica,thenwewillquicklywalkfromthetable.

FixingourrelationswithChinaisanotherimportantsteptowardsaprosperouscentury.Chinarespectsstrength,andby
lettingthemtakeadvantageofuseconomically,wehavelostalloftheirrespect.Wehaveamassivetradedeficitwith
China,adeficitwemustfindaway,quickly,tobalance.AstrongandsmartAmericaisanAmericathatwillfindabetter
friendinChina.Wecanbothbenefitorwecanbothgoourseparateways.

AfterIamelectedpresident,IwillalsocallforasummitwithourNATOallies,andaseparatesummitwithourAsian
allies.Inthesesummits,wewillnotonlydiscussarebalancingoffinancialcommitments,buttakeafreshlookathowwe
canadoptnewstrategiesfortacklingourcommonchallenges.Forinstance,wewilldiscusshowwecanupgradeNATOs
outdatedmissionandstructuregrownoutoftheColdWartoconfrontoursharedchallenges,includingmigrationand
Islamicterrorism.

Iwillnothesitatetodeploymilitaryforcewhenthereisnoalternative.ButifAmericafights,itmustfighttowin.Iwillnever
sendourfinestintobattleunlessnecessaryandwillonlydosoifwehaveaplanforvictory.Ourgoalispeaceand
prosperity,notwaranddestruction.Thebestwaytoachievethosegoalsisthroughadisciplined,deliberateandconsistent
foreignpolicy.

WithPresidentObamaandSecretaryClintonwevehadtheexactopposite:areckless,rudderlessandaimlessforeign
policyonethathasblazedapathofdestructioninitswake.Afterlosingthousandsoflivesandspendingtrillionsof
dollars,weareinfarworseshapenowintheMiddleEastthaneverbefore.Ichallengeanyonetoexplainthestrategic
foreignpolicyvisionofObama-Clintonithasbeenacompleteandtotaldisaster.Iwillalsobepreparedtodeploy
Americaseconomicresources.Financialleverageandsanctionscanbeverypersuasivebutweneedtousethem
selectivelyandwithdetermination.Ourpowerwillbeusedifothersdonotplaybytherules.Ourfriendsandenemies
mustknowthatifIdrawalineinthesand,Iwillenforceit.However,unlikeothercandidatesforthepresidency,warand
aggressionwillnotbemyfirstinstinct.Youcannothaveaforeignpolicywithoutdiplomacy.Asuperpowerunderstands
thatcautionandrestraintaresignsofstrength.

Althoughnotingovernmentservice,IwastotallyagainstthewarinIraq,sayingformanyyearsthatitwoulddestabilize
theMiddleEast.Sadly,Iwascorrect,andthebiggestbeneficiarywasIran,whoissystematicallytakingoverIraqand
gainingaccesstotheirrichoilreservessomethingithaswantedtodofordecades.Andnow,totopitalloff,wehave
ISIS.

Mygoalistoestablishaforeignpolicythatwillendureforseveralgenerations.ThatiswhyIwillalsolookfortalented
expertswithnewapproaches,andpracticalideas,ratherthansurroundingmyselfwiththosewhohaveperfectresumes
butverylittletobragaboutexceptresponsibilityforalonghistoryoffailedpoliciesandcontinuedlossesatwar.

Finally,IwillworkwithouralliestoreinvigorateWesternvaluesandinstitutions.Insteadoftryingtospreaduniversal
valuesthatnoteveryoneshares,weshouldunderstandthatstrengtheningandpromotingWesterncivilizationandits
accomplishmentswilldomoretoinspirepositivereformsaroundtheworldthanmilitaryinterventions.

Thesearemygoals,aspresident.

IwillseekaforeignpolicythatallAmericans,whatevertheirparty,cansupport,andwhichourfriendsandallieswill
respectandwelcome.Theworldmustknowthatwedonotgoabroadinsearchofenemies,thatwearealwayshappy
whenoldenemiesbecomefriends,andwhenoldfriendsbecomeallies.Toachievethesegoals,Americansmusthave
confidenceintheircountryanditsleadershipagain.ManyAmericansmustwonderwhyourpoliticiansseemmore
interestedindefendingthebordersofforeigncountriesthantheirown.Americansmustknowthatweareputtingthe
Americanpeoplefirstagain.Ontrade,onimmigration,onforeignpolicythejobs,incomesandsecurityoftheAmerican
workerwillalwaysbemyfirstpriority.Nocountryhaseverprosperedthatfailedtoputitsowninterestsfirst.Bothour
friendsandenemiesputtheircountriesaboveoursandwe,whilebeingfairtothem,mustdothesame.

Wewillnolongersurrenderthiscountry,oritspeople,tothefalsesongofglobalism.Thenation-stateremainsthetrue
foundationforhappinessandharmony.IamskepticalofinternationalunionsthattieusupandbringAmericadown,and
willneverenterAmericaintoanyagreementthatreducesourabilitytocontrolourownaffairs.NAFTA,asanexample,
hasbeenatotaldisasterfortheU.S.andhasemptiedourstatesofourmanufacturingandourjobs.Neveragain.Onlythe
reversewillhappen.Wewillkeepourjobsandbringinnewones.Theirwillbeconsequencesforcompaniesthatleave
theU.S.onlytoexploititlater.

UnderaTrumpadministration,noAmericancitizenwilleveragainfeelthattheirneedscomesecondtothecitizensof
foreigncountries.IwillviewtheworldthroughtheclearlensofAmericaninterests.IwillbeAmericasgreatestdefender
andmostloyalchampion.Wewillnotapologizeforbecomingsuccessfulagain,butwillinsteadembracetheunique
heritagethatmakesuswhoweare.

Theworldismostpeaceful,andmostprosperous,whenAmericaisstrongest.Americawillcontinuallyplaytheroleof
peacemaker.Wewillalwayshelptosavelivesand,indeed,humanityitself.Buttoplaythatrole,wemustmakeAmerica
strongagain.WemustmakeAmericarespectedagain.AndwemustmakeAmericagreatagain.Ifwedothat,perhaps
thiscenturycanbethemostpeacefulandprosperoustheworldhaseverknown.Thankyou.

DonaldJ.TrumpisaRepublicancandidateforpresident.Textsource:DonaldTrumpcampaignwebsite.

Image:Flickr/MichaelVadon.

Tags

DonaldTrumpforeignpolicynationalsecurityNationalInterestPolitics

SentfrommyiPad
 From: Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 04/28/201606:40:34AM
To: DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>
Subject: TrumponForeignPolicy

TrumponForeignPolicy

EditorsNote:RepublicanpresidentialcandidateDonaldTrumpdeliveredthefollowingspeechonforeignpolicy
ataneventhostedbytheNationalInterestonWednesday,April27.

Thankyoufortheopportunitytospeaktoyou,andthankyoutotheCenterfortheNationalInterestforhonoringmewith
thisinvitation.

Iwouldliketotalktodayabouthowtodevelopanewforeignpolicydirectionforourcountryonethatreplaces
randomnesswithpurpose,ideologywithstrategy,andchaoswithpeace.

ItistimetoshaketherustoffofAmericasforeignpolicy.It'stimetoinvitenewvoicesandnewvisionsintothefold.

ThedirectionIwilloutlinetodaywillalsoreturnustoatimelessprinciple.Myforeignpolicywillalwaysputtheinterestsof
theAmericanpeople,andAmericansecurity,aboveallelse.ThatwillbethefoundationofeverydecisionthatIwillmake.
AmericaFirstwillbethemajorandoverridingthemeofmyadministration.Buttochartourpathforward,wemustfirst
brieflylookback.

Wehavealottobeproudof.Inthe1940swesavedtheworld.TheGreatestGenerationbeatbacktheNazisandthe
JapaneseImperialists.Thenwesavedtheworldagain,thistimefromtotalitarianCommunism.TheColdWarlastedfor
decades,butwewon.DemocratsandRepublicansworkingtogethergotMr.GorbachevtoheedthewordsofPresident
Reaganwhenhesaid:teardownthiswall.Historywillnotforgetwhatwedid.

Unfortunately,aftertheColdWar,ourforeignpolicyveeredbadlyoffcourse.Wefailedtodevelopanewvisionforanew
time.Infact,astimewenton,ourforeignpolicybegantomakelessandlesssense.Logicwasreplacedwithfoolishness
andarrogance,andthisledtooneforeignpolicydisasterafteranother.WewentfrommistakesinIraqtoEgypttoLibya,
toPresidentObamaslineinthesandinSyria.Eachoftheseactionshavehelpedtothrowtheregionintochaos,andgave
ISISthespaceitneedstogrowandprosper.

ItallbeganwiththedangerousideathatwecouldmakeWesterndemocraciesoutofcountriesthathadnoexperienceor
interestinbecomingaWesterndemocracy.Wetoreupwhatinstitutionstheyhadandthenweresurprisedatwhatwe
unleashed.Civilwar,religiousfanaticismthousandsofAmericanlives,andmanytrillionsofdollars,werelostasaresult.
ThevacuumwascreatedthatISISwouldfill.Iran,too,wouldrushinandfillthevoid,muchtotheirunjustenrichment.

Ourforeignpolicyisacompleteandtotaldisaster.Novision,nopurpose,nodirection,nostrategy.

Today,Iwanttoidentifyfivemainweaknessesinourforeignpolicy.

First,OurResourcesAreOverextended

PresidentObamahasweakenedourmilitarybyweakeningoureconomy.Hescrippleduswithwastefulspending,
massivedebt,lowgrowth,ahugetradedeficitandopenborders.Ourmanufacturingtradedeficitwiththeworldisnow
approaching$1trillionayear.Wererebuildingothercountrieswhileweakeningourown.EndingthetheftofAmerican
jobswillgiveustheresourcesweneedtorebuildourmilitaryandregainourfinancialindependenceandstrength.Iamthe
onlypersonrunningforthePresidencywhounderstandsthisproblemandknowshowtofixit.
Secondly,ouralliesarenotpayingtheirfairshare.

Ouralliesmustcontributetowardthefinancial,politicalandhumancostsofourtremendoussecurityburden.Butmanyof
themaresimplynotdoingso.TheylookattheUnitedStatesasweakandforgivingandfeelnoobligationtohonortheir
agreementswithus.InNATO,forinstance,only4of28othermembercountries,besidesAmerica,arespendingthe
minimumrequired2percentofGDPondefense.

Wehavespenttrillionsofdollarsovertimeonplanes,missiles,ships,equipmentbuildingupourmilitarytoprovidea
strongdefenseforEuropeandAsia.Thecountrieswearedefendingmustpayforthecostofthisdefenseand,ifnot,the
U.S.mustbepreparedtoletthesecountriesdefendthemselves.Thewholeworldwillbesaferifouralliesdotheirpartto
supportourcommondefenseandsecurity.ATrumpadministrationwillleadafreeworldthatisproperlyarmedand
funded.

Thirdly,ourfriendsarebeginningtothinktheycantdependonus.

Wevehadapresidentwhodislikesourfriendsandbowstoourenemies.HenegotiatedadisastrousdealwithIran,and
thenwewatchedthemignoreitsterms,evenbeforetheinkwasdry.Irancannotbeallowedtohaveanuclearweapon
and,underaTrumpadministration,willneverbeallowedtohaveanuclearweapon.Allofthiswithoutevenmentioning
thehumiliationoftheUnitedStateswithIranstreatmentofourtencapturedsailors.

Innegotiation,youmustbewillingtowalk.TheIrandeal,likesomanyofourworstagreements,istheresultofnotbeing
willingtoleavethetable.Whentheothersideknowsyourenotgoingtowalk,itbecomesabsolutelyimpossibletowin.
Atthesametime,yourfriendsneedtoknowthatyouwillstickbytheagreementsthatyouhavewiththem.

PresidentObamaguttedourmissiledefenseprogram,thenabandonedourmissiledefenseplanswithPolandandthe
CzechRepublic.HesupportedtheousterofafriendlyregimeinEgyptthathadalongstandingpeacetreatywithIsrael
andthenhelpedbringtheMuslimBrotherhoodtopowerinitsplace.

Israel,ourgreatfriendandtheonetruedemocracyintheMiddleEast,hasbeensnubbedandcriticizedbyan
administrationthatlacksmoralclarity.Justafewdaysago,VicePresidentBidenagaincriticizedIsraelaforceforjustice
andpeaceforactingasanimpedimenttopeaceintheregion.PresidentObamahasnotbeenafriendtoIsrael.Hehas
treatedIranwithtenderloveandcareandmadeitagreatpowerintheMiddleEastallattheexpenseofIsrael,our
otheralliesintheregionand,critically,theUnitedStates.

Wevepickedfightswithouroldestfriends,andnowtheyrestartingtolookelsewhereforhelp.

Fourth,ourrivalsnolongerrespectus.

Infact,theyarejustasconfusedasourallies,butanevenbiggerproblemisthattheydonttakeusseriouslyanymore.
WhenPresidentObamalandedinCubaonAirForceOne,noleaderwastheretomeetorgreethimperhapsan
incidentwithoutprecedentinthelongandprestigioushistoryofAirForceOne.Then,amazingly,thesamethinghappened
inSaudiArabia--it'scallednorespect.DoyourememberwhenthePresidentmadealongandexpensivetripto
Copenhagen,DenmarktogettheOlympicsforourcountry,and,afterthisunprecedentedeffort,itwasannouncedthatthe
UnitedStatescameinfourthplace?Heshouldhaveknowntheresultbeforemakingsuchanembarrassingcommitment.

Thelistofhumiliationsgoesonandon.PresidentObamawatcheshelplesslyasNorthKoreaincreasesitsaggressionand
expandsevenfurtherwithitsnuclearreach.OurpresidenthasallowedChinatocontinueitseconomicassaulton
Americanjobsandwealth,refusingtoenforcetraderulesorapplytheleverageonChinanecessarytoreininNorth
Korea.HehasevenallowedChinatostealgovernmentsecretswithcyberattacksandengageinindustrialespionage
againsttheUnitedStatesanditscompanies.
Weveletourrivalsandchallengersthinktheycangetawaywithanything.IfPresidentObamasgoalhadbeentoweaken
America,hecouldnothavedoneabetterjob.

Finally,Americanolongerhasaclearunderstandingofourforeignpolicygoals.

SincetheendoftheColdWarandthebreak-upoftheSovietUnion,wevelackedacoherentforeignpolicy.Oneday
werebombingLibyaandgettingridofadictatortofosterdemocracyforcivilians,thenextdaywearewatchingthesame
civilianssufferwhilethatcountryfallsapart.

We'reahumanitariannation.ButthelegacyoftheObama-Clintoninterventionswillbeweakness,confusion,anddisarray.
WehavemadetheMiddleEastmoreunstableandchaoticthaneverbefore.WeleftChristianssubjecttointense
persecutionandevengenocide.OuractionsinIraq,LibyaandSyriahavehelpedunleashISIS.Andwereinawar
againstradicalIslam,butPresidentObamawontevennametheenemy!HillaryClintonalsorefusestosaythewords
radicalIslam,evenasshepushesforamassiveincreaseinrefugees.AfterSecretaryClintonsfailedinterventionin
Libya,IslamicterroristsinBenghazitookdownourconsulateandkilledourambassadorandthreebraveAmericans.
Then,insteadoftakingchargethatnight,HillaryClintondecidedtogohomeandsleep!Incredible.Clintonblamesitallon
avideo,anexcusethatwasatotallie.OurambassadorwasmurderedandourSecretaryofStatemisledthenationand
bytheway,shewasnotawaketotakethatcallat3o'clockinthemorning.AndnowISISismakingmillionsofdollarsa
weeksellingLibyanoil.

ThiswillchangewhenIampresident.

Toallourfriendsandallies,IsayAmericaisgoingtobestrongagain.Americaisgoingtobeareliablefriendandally
again.WeregoingtofinallyhaveacoherentforeignpolicybaseduponAmericaninterests,andthesharedinterestsofour
allies.Wearegettingoutofthenation-buildingbusiness,andinsteadfocusingoncreatingstabilityintheworld.Our
momentsofgreateststrengthcamewhenpoliticsendedatthewatersedge.Weneedanew,rationalAmericanforeign
policy,informedbythebestmindsandsupportedbybothparties,aswellasbyourcloseallies.Thisishowwewonthe
ColdWar,anditshowwewillwinournewandfuturestruggles.

First,weneedalong-termplantohaltthespreadandreachofradicalIslam.

ContainingthespreadofradicalIslammustbeamajorforeignpolicygoaloftheUnitedStates.Eventsmayrequirethe
useofmilitaryforce.Butitsalsoaphilosophicalstruggle,likeourlongstruggleintheColdWar.Inthisweregoingtobe
workingverycloselywithouralliesintheMuslimworld,allofwhichareatriskfromradicalIslamicviolence.

WeshouldworktogetherwithanynationintheregionthatisthreatenedbytheriseofradicalIslam.Butthishastobea
two-waystreettheymustalsobegoodtousandrememberusandallwearedoingforthem.Thestruggleagainst
radicalIslamalsotakesplaceinourhomeland.Therearescoresofrecentmigrantsinsideourborderschargedwith
terrorism.Foreverycaseknowntothepublic,therearedozensmore.Wemuststopimportingextremismthrough
senselessimmigrationpolicies.ApauseforreassessmentwillhelpustopreventthenextSanBernardinoorworseall
youhavetodoislookattheWorldTradeCenterandSeptember11.

AndthentheresISIS.Ihaveasimplemessageforthem.Theirdaysarenumbered.IwonttellthemwhereandIwont
tellthemhow.Wemustas,anation,bemoreunpredictable.Buttheyregoingtobegone.Andsoon.

Secondly,wehavetorebuildourmilitaryandoureconomy.

TheRussiansandChinesehaverapidlyexpandedtheirmilitarycapability,butlookwhatshappenedtous!Ournuclear
weaponsarsenalourultimatedeterrenthasbeenallowedtoatrophyandisdesperatelyinneedofmodernizationand
renewal.Ouractivedutyarmedforceshaveshrunkfrom2millionin1991toabout1.3milliontoday.TheNavyhas
shrunkfromover500shipsto272shipsduringthattime.TheAirForceisaboutone-thirdsmallerthan1991.Pilotsare
flyingB-52sincombatmissionstodaywhichareolderthanmostpeopleinthisroom.

Andwhatarewedoingaboutthis?PresidentObamahasproposeda2017defensebudgetthat,inrealdollars,cuts
nearly25percentfromwhatwewerespendingin2011.Ourmilitaryisdepleted,andwereaskingourgeneralsand
militaryleaderstoworryaboutglobalwarming.Wewillspendwhatweneedtorebuildourmilitary.Itisthecheapest
investmentwecanmake.Wewilldevelop,buildandpurchasethebestequipmentknowntomankind.Ourmilitary
dominancemustbeunquestioned.

Butwewilllookforsavingsandspendourmoneywisely.Inthistimeofmountingdebt,notonedollarcanbewasted.We
arealsogoingtohavetochangeourtrade,immigrationandeconomicpoliciestomakeoureconomystrongagainand
toputAmericansfirstagain.Thiswillensurethatourownworkers,righthereinAmerica,getthejobsandhigherpaythat
willgrowourtaxrevenueandincreaseoureconomicmightasanation.Weneedtothinksmarteraboutareaswhereour
technologicalsuperioritygivesusanedge.Thisincludes3-Dprinting,artificialintelligenceandcyberwarfare.

Agreatcountryalsotakescareofitswarriors.Ourcommitmenttothemisabsolute.ATrumpadministrationwillgiveour
servicemenandwomenthebestequipmentandsupportintheworldwhentheyserve,andthebestcareintheworld
whentheyreturnasveteranstocivilianlife.

Finally,wemustdevelopaforeignpolicybasedonAmericaninterests.

Businessesdonotsucceedwhentheylosesightoftheircoreinterestsandneitherdocountries.

Lookatwhathappenedinthe1990s.OurembassiesinKenyaandTanzaniawereattackedandseventeenbravesailors
werekilledontheUSSCole.Andwhatdidwedo?ItseemedweputmoreeffortintoaddingChinatotheWorldTrade
OrganizationwhichhasbeenadisasterfortheUnitedStatesthanintostoppingAlQaeda.Weevenhadan
opportunitytotakeoutOsamaBinLaden,anddidntdoit.Andthen,wegothitattheWorldTradeCenterandthe
Pentagon,theworstattackonourcountryinitshistory.

OurforeignpolicygoalsmustbebasedonAmericascorenationalsecurityinterests,andthefollowingwillbemy
priorities.IntheMiddleEast,ourgoalsmustbetodefeatterroristsandpromoteregionalstability,notradicalchange.We
needtobeclear-sightedaboutthegroupsthatwillneverbeanythingotherthanenemies.Andwemustonlybegenerous
tothosethatprovetheyareourfriends.

WedesiretolivepeacefullyandinfriendshipwithRussiaandChina.Wehaveseriousdifferenceswiththesetwonations,
andmustregardthemwithopeneyes.Butwearenotboundtobeadversaries.Weshouldseekcommongroundbased
onsharedinterests.Russia,forinstance,hasalsoseenthehorrorofIslamicterrorism.

IbelieveaneasingoftensionsandimprovedrelationswithRussiafromapositionofstrengthispossible.Common
sensesaysthiscycleofhostilitymustend.SomesaytheRussianswontbereasonable.Iintendtofindout.Ifwecant
makeagooddealforAmerica,thenwewillquicklywalkfromthetable.

FixingourrelationswithChinaisanotherimportantsteptowardsaprosperouscentury.Chinarespectsstrength,andby
lettingthemtakeadvantageofuseconomically,wehavelostalloftheirrespect.Wehaveamassivetradedeficitwith
China,adeficitwemustfindaway,quickly,tobalance.AstrongandsmartAmericaisanAmericathatwillfindabetter
friendinChina.Wecanbothbenefitorwecanbothgoourseparateways.

AfterIamelectedpresident,IwillalsocallforasummitwithourNATOallies,andaseparatesummitwithourAsian
allies.Inthesesummits,wewillnotonlydiscussarebalancingoffinancialcommitments,buttakeafreshlookathowwe
canadoptnewstrategiesfortacklingourcommonchallenges.Forinstance,wewilldiscusshowwecanupgradeNATOs
outdatedmissionandstructuregrownoutoftheColdWartoconfrontoursharedchallenges,includingmigrationand
Islamicterrorism.

Iwillnothesitatetodeploymilitaryforcewhenthereisnoalternative.ButifAmericafights,itmustfighttowin.Iwillnever
sendourfinestintobattleunlessnecessaryandwillonlydosoifwehaveaplanforvictory.Ourgoalispeaceand
prosperity,notwaranddestruction.Thebestwaytoachievethosegoalsisthroughadisciplined,deliberateandconsistent
foreignpolicy.

WithPresidentObamaandSecretaryClintonwevehadtheexactopposite:areckless,rudderlessandaimlessforeign
policyonethathasblazedapathofdestructioninitswake.Afterlosingthousandsoflivesandspendingtrillionsof
dollars,weareinfarworseshapenowintheMiddleEastthaneverbefore.Ichallengeanyonetoexplainthestrategic
foreignpolicyvisionofObama-Clintonithasbeenacompleteandtotaldisaster.Iwillalsobepreparedtodeploy
Americaseconomicresources.Financialleverageandsanctionscanbeverypersuasivebutweneedtousethem
selectivelyandwithdetermination.Ourpowerwillbeusedifothersdonotplaybytherules.Ourfriendsandenemies
mustknowthatifIdrawalineinthesand,Iwillenforceit.However,unlikeothercandidatesforthepresidency,warand
aggressionwillnotbemyfirstinstinct.Youcannothaveaforeignpolicywithoutdiplomacy.Asuperpowerunderstands
thatcautionandrestraintaresignsofstrength.

Althoughnotingovernmentservice,IwastotallyagainstthewarinIraq,sayingformanyyearsthatitwoulddestabilize
theMiddleEast.Sadly,Iwascorrect,andthebiggestbeneficiarywasIran,whoissystematicallytakingoverIraqand
gainingaccesstotheirrichoilreservessomethingithaswantedtodofordecades.Andnow,totopitalloff,wehave
ISIS.

Mygoalistoestablishaforeignpolicythatwillendureforseveralgenerations.ThatiswhyIwillalsolookfortalented
expertswithnewapproaches,andpracticalideas,ratherthansurroundingmyselfwiththosewhohaveperfectresumes
butverylittletobragaboutexceptresponsibilityforalonghistoryoffailedpoliciesandcontinuedlossesatwar.

Finally,IwillworkwithouralliestoreinvigorateWesternvaluesandinstitutions.Insteadoftryingtospreaduniversal
valuesthatnoteveryoneshares,weshouldunderstandthatstrengtheningandpromotingWesterncivilizationandits
accomplishmentswilldomoretoinspirepositivereformsaroundtheworldthanmilitaryinterventions.

Thesearemygoals,aspresident.

IwillseekaforeignpolicythatallAmericans,whatevertheirparty,cansupport,andwhichourfriendsandallieswill
respectandwelcome.Theworldmustknowthatwedonotgoabroadinsearchofenemies,thatwearealwayshappy
whenoldenemiesbecomefriends,andwhenoldfriendsbecomeallies.Toachievethesegoals,Americansmusthave
confidenceintheircountryanditsleadershipagain.ManyAmericansmustwonderwhyourpoliticiansseemmore
interestedindefendingthebordersofforeigncountriesthantheirown.Americansmustknowthatweareputtingthe
Americanpeoplefirstagain.Ontrade,onimmigration,onforeignpolicythejobs,incomesandsecurityoftheAmerican
workerwillalwaysbemyfirstpriority.Nocountryhaseverprosperedthatfailedtoputitsowninterestsfirst.Bothour
friendsandenemiesputtheircountriesaboveoursandwe,whilebeingfairtothem,mustdothesame.

Wewillnolongersurrenderthiscountry,oritspeople,tothefalsesongofglobalism.Thenation-stateremainsthetrue
foundationforhappinessandharmony.IamskepticalofinternationalunionsthattieusupandbringAmericadown,and
willneverenterAmericaintoanyagreementthatreducesourabilitytocontrolourownaffairs.NAFTA,asanexample,
hasbeenatotaldisasterfortheU.S.andhasemptiedourstatesofourmanufacturingandourjobs.Neveragain.Onlythe
reversewillhappen.Wewillkeepourjobsandbringinnewones.Theirwillbeconsequencesforcompaniesthatleave
theU.S.onlytoexploititlater.

UnderaTrumpadministration,noAmericancitizenwilleveragainfeelthattheirneedscomesecondtothecitizensof
foreigncountries.IwillviewtheworldthroughtheclearlensofAmericaninterests.IwillbeAmericasgreatestdefender
andmostloyalchampion.Wewillnotapologizeforbecomingsuccessfulagain,butwillinsteadembracetheunique
heritagethatmakesuswhoweare.

Theworldismostpeaceful,andmostprosperous,whenAmericaisstrongest.Americawillcontinuallyplaytheroleof
peacemaker.Wewillalwayshelptosavelivesand,indeed,humanityitself.Buttoplaythatrole,wemustmakeAmerica
strongagain.WemustmakeAmericarespectedagain.AndwemustmakeAmericagreatagain.Ifwedothat,perhaps
thiscenturycanbethemostpeacefulandprosperoustheworldhaseverknown.Thankyou.

DonaldJ.TrumpisaRepublicancandidateforpresident.Textsource:DonaldTrumpcampaignwebsite.

Image:Flickr/MichaelVadon.

Tags

DonaldTrumpforeignpolicynationalsecurityNationalInterestPolitics

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http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/04/donald-trump-2016-russia-today-rt-kremlin-media-vladimir-putin-213833

THEKREMLIN'SCANDIDATE

BACKWHENHEHOSTEDAPRIME-TIMETALKSHOWONMSNBC,EdSchultzdividedtheworldintoheroes
andvillains.TheheroesusuallyincludedDemocratslikeBarackObamaandHillaryClinton.The
villainsweremostRepublicans,andespeciallyDonaldJ.Trump.WhenTrumpobsessedover
Obamasbirthcertificateandacademiccredentialsin2011,Schultzbrandedhimaracist.When
Trumpflirtedwithrunningforpresidentthenextyear,Schultzridiculedhim.Whohasshownany
interestinDonaldTrumpbeingthenextpresidentoftheUnitedStatesotherthanDonaldTrump?
hefumed.Mr.Trump,stopembarrassingyourself!

AnotherbadguywasRussianPresidentVladimirPutin.Schultzdelightedinrippingconservatives
forwhathecalledtheirloveaffairwiththeRussianleaderandhisabilitytomakeObamalook
weakontheworldstage.TheyhateObamasomuchtheywillevenembracetheheadoftheKGB
...Putieistheirnewhero!Schultzsaidinone2013segment.Inanother,hesmuglyreminded
conservativesaboutPutinsnastyhumanrightsrecordandthewayhisrecklessbehaviorwas
cripplingRussia.Moregenerally,SchultzoftenframedGOPoppositiontoObamaasanti-
Americanorunpatriotic.

ThatwasallbeforelastJuly,whenMSNBCabruptlycanceledTheEdShowafterasix-yearrun
anddumpedthe62-year-oldprairiepopulistfromthenetwork.BythetimeSchultzresurfacedthis
January,hehadbeenreincarnatedinaverydifferentjournalisticform:asaprime-timehost,
reporterandpoliticalanalystforRTAmerica,theU.S.branchoftheglobalcablenetworkformerly
knownasRussiaToday,fundedbytheRussiangovernment.

GoneisthepraiseforObamaandClinton.Gone,too,arethemockingreferencestoPutie.And
gonearethejudgmentsaboutotherspatriotism.Schultzs8p.m.RTshow,TheNewswithEd
Schultz,nowfeaturesPutin-friendlydiscussionsaboutthefailingsofU.S.policyintheMiddle
East,AmericasbloateddefensebudgetandthefutilityofNATOstrategy.

EvenTrumpisgettinganewlookfromSchultz.SpeakingatvariouspointsonRTinrecent
months,SchultzhassaidthatTrumphastappedintoanangeramongworkingpeople,istalking
aboutthingsthepeoplecareabout,andeven,asSchultzrecentlydeclared,thatTrumpwould
easilybeabletofunctionaspresident.

Thosearestrangewordscomingfromanex-MSNBCliberalbetterknownforcastingTrumpasa
racistlout.ButRTisastrangeplace.ItstylesitselfasanedgyCNNorBBC,delivering
unvarnishednewsandcommentarywithamostlyhip,youngcast.Butjustunderthesurfaceisa
bought-and-paid-forpropagandavehicletryingtonudgeviewerstowardRussiassideofthestory
atatimewhenMoscowhasincreasinglybecomeaninternationalpariah,estrangedfromtheWest
overitsmilitaryaggressioninUkraine,Syriaandelsewhere,itselitessanctionedanditseconomy
strugglingwithisolation,decayinginfrastructureandcollapsingenergyprices.

Initsearlydays,RTmostlyofferedaKremlin-friendlydietofinternationalcoverage,feedingthe
Obama-bashing,America-in-declinenarrativewithC-listcommentatorswhocouldntgetanairing
elsewhereoncableTV.ButthatwasbeforeDonaldTrumpwhoseunlikelymutualadmirationfor
RussiasstrongmanpresidenthasbeenoneofthestrangersubplotsofthisAmericanpolitical
season.

TheblusterybillionairehaspraisedPutinasastrongleader,spokenofclosertieswithMoscowandmused
aboutwhetherNATOisobsolete.AttheforeignpolicyspeechTrumpdeliveredinWashingtononApril27,
theRussianambassadortotheUnitedStateswassittinginthefrontrow.AsTrumphasrisen,RThasgotten
muchmoreinterestedintheU.S.presidentialcampaign.TuneintoEdSchultzandhiscolleaguesthesedays
andyoullfindapresidentialracefeaturingHillaryClintonasamalevolentwarmonger,BernieSandersasan
insurgentheroandDonaldTrumpasaforeignpolicysavant.

AnetworkthatupuntilnowhasfoundlittletocelebrateaboutAmericahasfinallysettledonacandidateit
canbelievein.VladimirPutinsTVchannelisntjustcoveringthe2016campaign:Increasingly,itschoosing
sides.

***
TheRussianpresidentsfacewasafaintshadeofgreenashegazedupatagiantimageofLarryKing.It
wasDecember10,andVladimirPutinwastheguestofhonoratRTs10thanniversarydinner,atMoscows
MetropolHotelintheshadowoftheKremlin.Putinwasntgreenfromfoodpoisoningthehuecamefrom
lightingthatbathedtheroominthelimeofthenetworkslogo.

KingwasopeningtheceremoniesbyvideomessagefromLosAngeles,wherethe82-year-old
nowhostsadiminishedversionofhisoldCNNtalkshowforRT,joiningarosterofhoststhat
includesotherpast-their-primeU.S.celebritieslikeSchultzandJessetheBodyVentura,the
formerwrestlingchamp-turnedMinnesotagovernorwhoalsohasashowonRT.Inhistrademark
shirtsleevesandsuspenders,KingapologizedforhisabsenceandletPutinknowhedloveto
interviewhim.TheRussianleaderlookedvisiblypleased.

SittingnexttoPutinwasRTs36-year-oldeditor-in-chief,MargaritaSimonyan,araven-haired
formerstatetelevisionreporterwhotookoverRTwhenshewas25.Sheisafeistydefenderofher
network,oftenlashingoutagainstcriticsandtherearemanywhosayRTislittlemorethana
weaponinaRussianinformationwaragainsttheWest.SecretaryofStateJohnKerrycallsthe
networkapropagandabullhornforPutinithasbeenasubjectatHouseandSenateforeign
affairshearingsand,inmid-March,twoU.S.senatorsintroducedtheCounteringInformation
WarfareAct,whichisaimedinpartatthenetwork.SimonyanalmostseemstoenjoybattlingRTs
legionsofcritics.WhenaBuzzFeedreporteraskedherin2014aboutallegedKremlininfluence,
Simonyanunleashedamockingreply.[W]ejustreadthelatestKremlinpressreleasesoncamera.
Itismuchmoreefficientthatway,shewroteonRTswebsite,addingsardonicallythatthenetwork
unleash[es]theKGBonanyonewhodarestoleave.Andyet,Simonyandoesinfactkeepa
yellowtelephonewithnodialpadonherdesk,whichSimonyanconcededtoaTimereporterlast
yearisasecurelinetotheKremlin.

Inhisremarksatthedinner,Putinshowedobviousprideinthenetwork,sayingitseffortsreminded
himofthewayhardworkingRussiansailorsteartheshirtsofftheirbacks.Hemostdecidedly
wasntmentioningthathotlinetotheKremlinonSimonyansdeskorKerrysscathingdismissalof
hisbullhorn.Farfromit.Yourgreateststrengthispresentinginformationfreelyand
independently,Putintoldthecrowd,whosippedwineintranslucentchairsaroundwhite-clothed
tables.Wedonotcontrolyou.andwedonotmeddle,Putinsaid.HealsoboastedthatRThas
areachof700millionviewers,thoughheconcededtheyhadnoideahowmanypeopleactually
watchU.S.officialssaytheAmericanviewershipismuchlowerthanRTsestimateof8millionper
weekoncablesystemslikeComcast,TimeWarnerandDishNetwork.(Theyarealsoskepticalof
RTsclaimtohaveabudgetofonly$250millionworldwide.InMarch,RepublicanSenatorRob
PortmancitedreportssayingthecostofthenetworksWashingtonbureaualonecouldbe$400
million,thoughRTadamantlydeniesthat,andtheoriginalsourceofthereportisunclear.)

PutindidhintatRTsroleinthepoliticalwarRussiafindsitselfwagingwiththeWest,referringto
thecomplicatedstateofglobalpoliticsanddistortionsofevents,includinginUkraineandSyria,
andsayingthatRTcandescribethetrueeventstoagrowingglobalaudienceyearningfor
unbiasedfacts.

ButPutinscommentsareatoddswithhowthenetworkoperatesinpractice,accordingto
interviewswithpeoplewhocloselywatchorhaveworkedatRT,andmyownhoursofmonitoring
thenetworkanditswebsite.OneformerRTstafferinWashingtontoldmethatsheleftherjob,
alongwithotherswhohavealsospokentothemedia,afterseeingthenetworksMoscow-based
editorsinstructjournaliststomaketheircoveragehewtotheMoscow-approvedpoliticalline.Such
concernseruptedintofullviewacoupleyearsagowhenRussiamarchedintoneighboringUkraine
toannextheCrimeanPeninsula,leadinga28-year-oldRTpresenternamedLizWahltoquiton-
air,declaring,IcannotbeapartofanetworkfundedbytheRussiangovernmentthat
whitewashestheactionsofPutin.

Justunderthesurfaceisabought-and-paid-forpropagandavehicletryingtonudge
viewerstowardRussiassideofthestoryatatimewhenMoscowhasincreasingly
becomeaninternationalpariah.

Today,itsclearRToperateslessasthefreeandindependentnewssourcePutintouted,and
moreasavehiclethatincreasinglyusestheavailabletoolsofthedigitalrevolutionfromviral
videos(AnimatedGenitals,LawnmowerExplodes)toentertaininglysnarkytweetstopromote
Russiasmessage.ItspositioningitselfasascrappydissentertotheoldWesternmedias
monopolyoninformation,athemeSimonyanemphasizedtomeinastatementforthisstory.
Americans,shesaid,watchRTforstories,viewsandanalysistheywontfindinthemainstream
media.AsforcriticismofRTscoverageoftheUnitedStatesandthe2016campaign,she
soundedapositivelyTrumpiantheme,sayingRTscriticsaremostlymembersoftheU.S.political
establishment,whoareuncomfortablewithlosingthelongtimemonopolyoninformation.

SeatednexttoSimonyanatthedinnerandjusttwoseatsawayfromPutinhimselfwasperhapsthe
mostintriguingexampleofhowtheRussianshavegoneaboutrecruitingdisaffectedmembersof
thatestablishment:arugged-lookingmaninatuxedowholessthan18monthsearlierhadbeen
headoftheDefenseIntelligenceAgency,thePentagonspowerfulin-houseequivalentoftheCIA.
MichaelFlynn,nowaprivatecitizenafterareportedlydisgruntledretirement,wasnotthereto
gatherintelligence.HisattendanceattheRTgala,beforewhichhealsogaveatalkonworld
affairs,appearedtoinauguratearelationshipwiththenetworkpresumablyapaidone,though
neitherFlynnnorRTansweredqueriesonthesubject.Flynnnowmakessemi-regular
appearancesonRTasananalyst,inwhichheoftenarguesthattheU.S.andRussiashouldbe
workingmorecloselytogetheronissueslikefightingISILandendingSyriascivilwar.Russiahas
itsownnationalsecuritystrategy,andwehavetorespectthat,hesaidinonerecentappearance.
Andwehavetotrytofigureout:HowdowecombinetheUnitedStatesnationalsecuritystrategy
alongwithRussiasnationalsecuritystrategy,despiteallthechallengesthatweface?

Atamomentofsemi-hostilitybetweentheU.S.andRussia,thepresenceofsuchanimportant
figureatPutinstablestartledcurrentandformermembersoftheObamaadministration.Itwas
extremelyoddthatheshowedupinatuxedototheRussiangovernmentpropagandaarmsparty,
oneformerPentagonofficialtoldme.

Readmore:http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/04/donald-trump-2016-russia-today-rt-kremlin-media-
vladimir-putin-213833#ixzz476128h00
Followus:@politicoonTwitter|PoliticoonFacebook

----------Forwardedmessage----------
 From:VRT
Date:Thu,Apr28,2016at10:46AM
Subject:PLEASENOTE---OLDERBUTSTILLVALID:"PutinFavorsTrumporSandersforPresident.HeresWhy
ThatMatterstoYou"

To:"Waz(Columbia)"<waz2102@columbia.edu>

Putin Favors Trump or Sanders for President. Heres Why

That Matters to You

BLAZE

PaulGregory

PaulGregoryisaspecialistonRussia,theSovietUnionandUkraine.HeisaCullenDistinguishedProfessorattheUniversityof
HoustonaResearchFellow,attheHooverInstitutionatStanfordUniversity

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RTs(RussiaToday,theKremlinsmediaarmtotheoutsideworld)presscoverageoftheU.S.
presidentialprimarieshasbeenuniformlyfavorabletowardsBernieSandersandDonaldTrump,
whileHillaryClintonandMarcoRubiohavebeenthebuttofnegativereporting.

TheotherRepublicancandidateshavereceivedlittlecoverage,eitherpositiveornegative.I
guesstheKremlindoesnotconsidertheminthemixoflikelywinners.

Despitebudgetwoes,VladimirPutindoesnotspareexpenseingettingouthismessage
throughRTanditssisteroutletSputnik.Bothaimforadegreeofrespectabilityandtryto
refrainfromtheoutrightoutlandish.ThereareallkindsofunofficialoutletsforKremlin
garbageinsocialmedia.
(APPhoto/AlexanderZemlianichenko)

RTportraysSandersasakindly,grandfatherlyfigure,anidealistdedicatedtoequality,justice,
fairness,socialdemocracyandafighteragainstcorporateinterests,themilitaryindustrial
complex,andthewealthy.Sandersfollowersarepicturedasidealistsstrugglingforajust
society.
RTsHillaryClintonisaflawedandunpopularfigurecompromisedbyemailscandals,flip-flops,
areputationfordishonesty,grubbingforcampaigncontributions,cheatingintownhall
meetings,futileattemptstodistanceherselffromWallStreet,andalosingbattleagainst
thehumble,regular-guySanders.
OntheRepublicanside,RTlabelsTrumpastheclearfrontrunner,anextraordinaryperson,
whoattractsenthusiasticandunprecedentedcrowds.RTheraldshisrejectionoftheIraqwar,
hismanytalents,hiscuttingdebatestyle,andhisrespectforanddefenseofVladimirPutin.

DonaldTrumpFavorabilityRatingOverTime|InsideGov

RT(anditssisterpublication,Sputnik)havelesskindwordsforMarcoRubio.Amongother
missteps,RubioissaidtohavedeclaredtheParismassacreanactofGod,histhugs
haveattackedprotesters,heisaWallStreetinsider,andwishestocanceltheIraniannuclear
deal.RTleavesittotheKremlinsbottomfeederstolabelRubioawarmonger,butthey
ridiculehimforwearinghighheelstomaskhisshortstature.

Inthemostrecentdebate,SanderspickedtinyparanoidNorthKoreaasthegreatestthreatto
America,versusClintonsbelligerentRussia.Russia,Clintonwarns,istryingtomovepost
WorldWarIIboundariesandtosetEuropeancountriesoneagainsttheother.Sanderscallfor
anewNATO-likeorganizationthatincludesRussiatocombatradicalIslamicterrorismmustbe
beautifulmusictoPutinsears.Putinshouldbeconfidenthecanruncirclesaroundtheother-
worldlySanders.PutinschoicesofSandersandTrumprequirenogeniustoanalyze.Sanderss
antiwarpacifismandinexperienceinworldpowerpoliticsmakehimaseasymarkforPutin.

BernieSandersFavorabilityRatingOverTime|InsideGov

PutinhasanevenstrongeraffinityforTrump.TrumpsatisfiesPutinspathologicalneedfor
praiseandrespect.TrumpcharacterizesPutinaleader(incontrasttoBarackObama)
anddefendshimagainstchargesofmurderingopponents:Putinkilledreporters?Proveit.
Inhisannual2015pressconference,PutincharacterizedTrumpasaverycolorfuland
talentedman,nodoubtaboutthat.Hesaysthathewantstomovetoanotherlevelof
relations,toadeeperlevelofrelationswithRussia.Howcanwenotwelcomethat?
TrumpsgreatestattractionforPutinishisapparentindifferencetowardsconflictsinwhich
Russiaisengaged.AccordingtoTrump,theyarenotAmericasbusiness:LetRussiafight
[IslamicState],iftheywanttofighttheminSyria.LetSyriaand[IslamicState]fight.Why
dowecare?
IfTrumpwantsotherstofightMiddleEasternwars,hemightdecide,toPutinsdelight,tolet
haplessandtoothlessGermanyorFrancedefendUkraineandtheBalticstatesfromRussian
aggression.
UnlikeTrumpsisolationismwithrespecttoEuropeanandMiddleEasternhotspots,Putin
understandsthatRubiohasstakedoutahawkishpositionwithrespecttoRussia.
RubiojoinedhisSenatecolleaguesinsupportingstrictersanctionsagainstRussiaandin
pushingforlethalmilitaryaidtoUkraine.Toaddinsulttoinjury,RubiohasdaredtocallPutin
agangsterleadingacriminalregimeandhasdredgedupthe1999apartment
bombingslikelyorderedbyPutintojustifytheSecondChechenWar.Russiacannotallowa
threatlikeRubiotobecomepresident.

AmericanvoterssupportTrumpandSandersbecausetheyareangrywithhowWashington
works.Theyareingoodcompany,andtheyhaveeveryreasontobeappalled.

TrumpandSanderssupportersmust,however,understandthattheirbackingofapie-in-the-
skysocialist/pacifistoranentertainer/businessmanputstheminthesamecampasRussias
corruptleader.VladimirPutinishopingAmericanvotersgivehimtheopportunitytoplaychess
againstcheckersamateursashepullsEuropeapart,strengthensunsavoryregimesinIranand
Syria,andseekstorestorelostSovietterritorybyforce.

TheBlazecontributorchannelsupportsanopendiscourseonarangeofviews.Theopinions
expressedinthischannelaresolelythoseofeachindividualauthor.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:AntonivFamily<antoniv_family@msn.com>
Date:Wed,Apr27,2016at11:40PM
Subject:TrumpsForeignPolicySpeech(transcript)/+WSJ
To:

WSJ"Mr.TrumprepeatedlysaidatopprioritywouldbeexpandingtheU.S.military,modernizingits
nuclearweaponsarsenalandgreatlyincreasingthenumberofU.S.troops,shipsandaircraft.Buthe
stoppedshortofdetailingwhatanewAmericanmilitarywoulddo,orwhattheroleofabeefed-uparmed
serviceswouldbe,orhowthatplanwouldcoexistwithavisionofagreatlyreducedU.S.footprint."

TrumpsAmericaFirstForeignPolicySpeech(transcript)

http://time.com/4309786/read-donald-trumps-america-first-foreign-policy-speech/

...WedesiretolivepeacefullyandinfriendshipwithRussiaandChina.Wehaveseriousdifferenceswith
thesetwonations,andmustregardthemwithopeneyes,butwearenotboundtobeadversaries.We
shouldseekcommongroundbasedonsharedinterests.

Russia,forinstance,hasalsoseenthehorrorofIslamicterrorism.Ibelieveaneasingoftensions,and
improvedrelationswithRussiafromapositionofstrengthonlyispossible,absolutelypossible.
Commonsensesaysthiscycle,thishorriblecycleofhostilitymustendandideallywillendsoon.Good
forbothcountries.

SomesaytheRussianswontbereasonable.Iintendtofindout.Ifwecantmakeadealundermy
administration,adealthatsgreatnotgood,greatforAmerica,butalsogoodforRussia,thenwe
willquicklywalkfromthetable.Itsassimpleasthat.Weregoingtofindout.

FixingourrelationswithChinaisanotherimportantstepandreallytowardcreatinganevenmore
prosperousperiodoftime.Chinarespectsstrengthandbylettingthemtakeadvantageofus
economically,whichtheyaredoinglikeneverbefore,wehavelostalloftheirrespect.

WehaveamassivetradedeficitwithChina,adeficitthatwehavetofindawayquickly,andImean
quickly,tobalance.AstrongandsmartAmericaisanAmericathatwillfindabetterfriendinChina,better
thanwehaverightnow.LookatwhatChinaisdoingintheSouthChinaSea.Theyrenotsupposedto
bedoingit.

Norespectforthiscountryorthispresident.Wecanbothbenefitorwecanbothgoourseparateways.If
needbe,thatswhatsgoingtohavetohappen.

AfterImelectedpresident,IwillalsocallforasummitwithourNATOalliesandaseparatesummitwith
ourAsianallies.Inthesesummits,wewillnotonlydiscussarebalancingoffinancialcommitments,but
takeafreshlookathowwecanadoptnewstrategiesfortacklingourcommonchallenges.Forinstance,
wewilldiscusshowwecanupgradeNATOsoutdatedmissionandstructure,grownoutoftheColdWar,
toconfrontoursharedchallenges,includingmigrationandIslamicterrorism.
...

DonaldTrumpCallsforDramaticBreakWithCurrentU.S.ForeignPolicy

GOPfront-runnercallsforexpandingthesizeofthemilitary,whilepullingbackfromglobalhotspots

http://www.wsj.com/articles/donald-trump-calls-for-dramatic-break-with-current-u-s-foreign-policy-
1461783848

Inararepolicyspeech,Republicanfront-runnerDonaldTrumpoutlinedhisforeignpolicyplanifelected
asthenextpresidentoftheUnitedStates.

ByDamianPalettaandPeterNicholas

UpdatedApril27,20169:48p.m.

821COMMENTS

Republicanpresidentialfront-runnerDonaldTrump,emboldenedbyfreshprimarywinsthisweekand
pivotingtowardalikelygeneral-electionfight,calledWednesdayfortheU.S.topullbackfromitsglobal
engagements,markingadecisivebreakfromrecentRepublicanorthodoxy.

Mr.Trumpsfirstmajorforeign-policyaddressoutlinedaseriesofbluntprinciples,someofthem
arguablycontradictory,andwasnotableforitswillingnesstoexcoriatethevisionofformerPresident
GeorgeW.Bush,aswellasPresidentBarackObama.

ThespeechcameadayafterMr.TrumpandDemocratHillaryClintontookall-but-irreversiblecontrolof
theirpartiesnominationprocesseswithsweepingprimaryvictoriesinNortheasternstates.Theirrivals
respondeddifferentlytotheirfadinghopesonWednesday.

Mr.Trumpsleadingrival,TexasSen.TedCruz,tooktheunusualstepofnaminghispotentialrunning
matethreemonthsbeforetheRepublicanconvention,choosingformerHewlett-PackardCo.Chief
ExecutiveCarlyFiorina.

VermontSen.BernieSanders,Mrs.Clintonsrival,islayingoffhundredsoffieldstaff,thecampaignsaid.
ThemovefollowedatoughstretchinwhichMr.SanderslostfiveofthelastsixprimaryconteststoMrs.
Clinton.

Thefront-runners,incontrast,spentthedaymostlyfocusedoneachotherandthegeneralelection.The
ClintoncampaignsoughttocapitalizeonMr.TrumpscommentinavictoryspeechTuesdaynightthatif
Mrs.Clintonwereaman,Idontthinkshedget5%ofthevote.Clintonaidessentoutafundraising
messageattackinghisabsurddiatribeagainstHillary,addingthatMrs.Clintonneededdonations
becauseshehadtobepreparedforMr.Trumpsunpredictablemessage.

Thenewlandscapepromptedrenewedscrutinyofthefront-runnerspositions,especiallywhenitcomes
toMr.Trump,whowouldbetheonlymajorpartynomineeinrecentmemorywithnogovernmentor
militaryexperience.Acentralaspectofhisforeign-policyaddress,attheMayflowerHotelafewblocks
fromtheWhiteHouse,wasitssolemndelivery,aftermonthsofraucousralliesandoftencoarse
comments.

Mr.TrumpsoverridingthemewasthattheU.S.mustresetitsrelationswithothercountries,easing
tensionswhenpossible,showingenemiesthattheU.S.meansbusiness,andguardingagainst
becominginvolvedintoomanypartsoftheworld.DespitedifferenceswithChinaandRussia,hesaid,
Wearenotboundtobeadversaries.

Strikinganationalisticandpopulisttone,Mr.Trumpwasunambiguousinsayinghewoulddemandthat
alliespaytheU.S.partofthebillfordefendingthemorelsetheywouldhavetodefendthemselves.

ManyofMr.TrumpscommentscontrastedwithrecentRepublicanforeignpolicy.GOPleaders,ledby
suchfiguresasMr.BushandSen.JohnMcCain(R.,Ariz.),haveoftencalledformuscularU.S.
engagementintheMiddleEast,Ukraineandelsewhere.

Thespeechwasmostlydevoidofnewproposals,butwasharshinitscriticismofMr.ObamaforwhatMr.
TrumpcalledanincoherentforeignpolicythatfavoredAmericasenemies,disappointeditsfriendsand
relegateditssecuritytoalowerpriority.

MyforeignpolicywillalwaysputtheinterestsoftheAmericanpeopleandAmericansecurityaboveall
else,Mr.Trumpsaid.Ithastobefirst.Hastobe.

WhiteHousespokesmanJoshEarnestdefendedMr.Obamasrecordandsaidvoterswouldhaveto
decideforthemselveswhotheywantasthenextcommanderinchief.

WhatistrueisthatPresidentObamaoverthecourseofhispresidencyhasworkedtounitethe
internationalcommunitytoconfrontawiderangeofthreats,hesaid.

Mr.TrumprepeatedlysaidatopprioritywouldbeexpandingtheU.S.military,modernizingitsnuclear
weaponsarsenalandgreatlyincreasingthenumberofU.S.troops,shipsandaircraft.

ButhestoppedshortofdetailingwhatanewAmericanmilitarywoulddo,orwhattheroleofabeefed-up
armedserviceswouldbe,orhowthatplanwouldcoexistwithavisionofagreatlyreducedU.S.
footprint.Mr.TrumpnotedthattheU.S.mustbewillingtostopdefendingEuropeanalliesthathesaid
dontcontributeenoughtotheNorthAtlanticTreatyOrganization,adding,TheU.S.mustbepreparedto
letthesecountriesdefendthemselves.

WhileMr.TrumpoutlinedgeneralprincipleslikemakingAmericaagreatandreliableallyagain,he
providedlittleindicationofhowthatmightplayoutinacomplexhotspotsuchasSyria.

Advocatingbothaggressivenessanddisengagement,Mr.TrumpdidnthesitatetogoafterMr.Bush,
sayinghis2003decisiontoinvadeIraqdestabilizedtheMiddleEastandthebiggestbeneficiaryhas
beenIran.AndhesaidMr.ObamasactionsintheMiddleEastgaverisetoIslamicState,aterror
networkthathesaidmustbedefeated,thoughhedidntspecifyhow.

Despitethegrandersetting,Mr.Trumpdidntretracthismorecontroversialforeign-policyideas,
reiterating,forexample,hiscallforapauseinallowingMuslimstoentertheU.S.

Buthealsodidntrepeatseveralproposalsthathavebeenpillarsofhisnational-securityplanformonths
andaregreetedwithroarsofapprovalathisrallies.Theseincludetheconstructionofa1,000-milewall
ontheU.S.-Mexicoborderandharsherinterrogationsofterrorsuspects.
Mr.TrumptriedtotetherMrs.ClintontoMr.Obamaherbosswhenshewassecretaryofstatesaying
thetwolettheU.S.loseinfluenceandalliesaroundtheworld.

Ourgoalispeaceandprosperity,notwaranddestruction,Mr.Trumpsaid.Thebestwaytoachieve
thosegoalsisthroughadisciplined,deliberateandconsistentforeignpolicy.WithPresidentObamaand
SecretaryClinton,wevehadtheexactoppositeareckless,rudderlessandaimlessforeignpolicy,one
thathasblazedapathofdestructioninitswake.

TheClintoncampaignwassharplycriticalofthespeech,sayingtheTrumpapproachwouldmakethe
worldmorechaoticanddangerous.Iveneverseensuchacombinationofsimplisticslogans,
contradictionsandmisstatementsinonespeech,saidformerSecretaryofStateMadeleineAlbrightina
callarrangedbytheClintoncampaign.

Ms.AlbrightalsocriticizedhisuseofthetermAmericaFirst,sayingitechoedtheAmericaFirst
CommitteethaturgedtheU.S.tostayoutofWorldWarII,despiteNaziGermanysaggressionin
Europe.Maybeheneverreadhistory,orhejustdoesntunderstandit,shesaid.

SeveralRepublicans,includingSen.LindseyGraham(R.,S.C.),anadvocateofstrongU.S.engagement,
alsoattackedthespeech.

Manynational-securityandforeign-policyadvisersfrombothpartieshaverejectedMr.Trumpspolicies,
sayingbanningtheentryofMuslimsandbuildinganewalliancewithRussiacouldbedangerous.

TherearesignsthatmoreRepublicansarewarmingtoMr.Trumpscandidacy,oratleastcomingto
termswiththefactthatheistheirlikelynominee.SenateForeignRelationsChairmanBobCorker(R.,
Tenn.),whosofarhaddeclinedtoweighinontheWhiteHouserace,said,DonaldTrumpdelivereda
verygoodforeign-policyspeechinwhichhelaidouthisvisionforAmericanengagementintheworld.

Atonepoint,Mr.TrumpsaidtheonlywaytocombatIslamicStatewastobecomemoreunpredictable
asanation.

Wearetotallypredictable,hesaid.Wetelleverything.Weresendingtroops.Wetellthem.Were
sendingsomethingelse.Wehaveanewsconference.Wehavetobeunpredictable.Andwehavetobe
unpredictablestartingnow.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:MartaBurachok<marta.burachok@gmail.com>
Date:Thu,Apr28,2016at7:52AM
Subject:WhatdoRussiansthinkofDonaldTrump?-BBCNews
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

http://www.bbc.com/news/36155109

WhatdoRussiansthinkofDonaldTrump?
27April2016Lastupdatedat22:52BST

Ifthepopulationsoftherestoftheworld'sG20countriescouldvoteintheUSelection,they'doverwhelminglyvoteforHillary
ClintonoverDonaldTrump.

That'saccordingtoarecentpollbyGermany'sHandelsblattpublishinggroupandYouGov,theonlinepollster.

Butthere'sonecountrywheretheformerFirstLadytakesabackseattothebillionaireRepublicanfront-runnerfromNew
York,andthat'sRussia.

SteveRosenbergwenttoanAmerican-themeddinerinMoscowtofindoutwhy.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:CliffKincaid<kincaid@comcast.net>
Date:Thu,Apr28,2016at7:53AM
Subject:TrumpJumpsIntoBedWithPutin
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

TrumpJumpsIntoBedWithPutin
ByCliffKincaid

http://www.aim.org/aim-column/trump-jumps-into-bed-with-putin/

DonaldJ.Trumpsforeignpolicyaddresswasdeliveredwiththeaidofateleprompterandwrittenbyhispro-Russianadvisers.He
tooknoquestions.ItwasareplayofformerSecretaryofStateHillaryClintonsdisastrousRussianresetthatledtotheRussian
invasionofUkraine.Yet,TrumppretendstobeanopponentofMrs.Clintonsforeignpolicy.

WeclearlysawtheinfluenceofTrumpspro-Russianadvisersinthespeech.TherewasabsolutelynorecognitionoftheRussian
threattoEurope,includingitsinvasionandoccupationofUkraine.

Evenourmediacouldntignorethisblatantomission.CNNinternationalcorrespondentFrederickPleitgennotedafterthespeech
thatTrumpsomissionofUkrainewasgreatnewsforRussia,andthattheRussianswillbealmostecstaticoverthespeech.He
saidmanypeopleinRussiaareadmirersofTrump.

Ofcourse,TrumpadmiresVladimirPutin,andviceversa.Thatisamatterofrecord.Trumpdidntdisavowhispreviouspro-Putin
comments.

TrumpwasnavetotheextremeintalkingaboutcooperationwithRussia.Forexample,herepeatedlytalkedaboutthethreat
posedbyIran,withoutnotingthatIransmainsponsorisRussia.TrumpcannotbetoughwithIranwhileplayingnicewithRussia.

TrumpclaimstobeforIsrael,butheignoresRussianbackingfortheIraniannuclearweaponsprogram.Thismakesnosense,
exceptfromapro-Russianpointofview.TheIranianthreatismadepossiblebyPutin.

TrumpsaidhewantedtopressureChinatodosomethingaboutNorthKoreasnuclearprogram.ButChinaandNorthKoreaare
bothcommunistcountries.Theyhaveatreatytogether.NorthKoreaalsohasatreatywithRussia.Theinternationalcommunist
movementisaliveandwell.ChinabacksNorthKoreaforideologicalreasons.

SincetheendoftheColdWarandthebreakupoftheSovietUnion,wevelackedacoherentforeignpolicy,Trumpsaid.
PerhapstheSovietbreakupwasdesignedtoconfuseus.PerhapsthefactthatRussianPresidentPutinisaformerKGBofficeris
noaccident,andtheresareasonwhyRussianforeignpolicyresemblesthatoftheoldSovietUnion.

IfPresidentObamasgoalhadbeentoweakenAmerica,hecouldnothavedoneabetterjob,saidTrump.ButwhatisTrumps
goal?TrumpfailedtoarticulateapolicyofregimechangeinRussiathatwouldputPutinontrialforviolationsofinternationallaw
andcrimesagainsthumanityinUkraineandSyria.

MoscowhascreatedmuchoftheconflictintheMiddleEastandaroundtheworldthatthreatenstheU.S.,EuropeandIsrael.
TrumpseemsoblivioustoRussianaggression.

TrumpsayswecanjoinwithRussiaagainstIslamicterrorism.ButsomeexpertssaytheRussiansarebehindISIS,al-Qaedaand
otherIslamicterroristgroups,forthepurposeofdestabilizingtheregionandhelpingIranexpand.

TrumpsapproachisthesameattitudethatcharacterizedtheObama/Clintonadministration.AfterHillarysdisastrousresetwith
RussiacameRussianmembershipintheWorldTradeOrganizationandmoreWesterninvestmentinRussia.Then,Obamamocked
MittRomneyduringthe2012presidentialcampaignforcallingRussiaageopoliticalthreat.Now,Trumpproposestoignorethe
RussianinvasionofUkraineandengineeraresetofhisownwithPutin.PerhapsTrumpsattitudeisdrivenbyhishistoryoftryingto
dobusinessdealswithMoscow.

Inoneofhismostnavemoments,Trumpsaid,IbelieveaneasingoftensionsandimprovedrelationswithRussia,fromaposition
ofstrengthonly,ispossible,absolutelypossible.Commonsensesaysthiscycle,thishorriblecycleofhostilitymustend,andideally
willendsoon.Goodforbothcountries.ApositionofstrengthwouldseemtodictatethatweconfrontRussiainUkraineby
supportingthegovernmentandpeoplethere.TheywanttobefreeofRussiancontrol.TrumpsaysAmericashouldbetheleaderof
theFreeWorld.YetTrumpjusthiredanadviserwhowasamemberoftheteambackingthecommunistsinUkraine.Another
TrumpadviserworksforaRussiangascompany.

ThebillionairebusinessmanhasastrangeblindspotwhenitcomestoPutinsRussia.

ApositionofstrengthmeansconfrontingRussiaoveritssupportofIran.Trumpsaid,Wedesiretolivepeacefullyandinfriendship
withRussiaandChina.Wehaveseriousdifferenceswiththesetwonations,andmustregardthemwithopeneyes,butwearenot
boundtobeadversaries.Weshouldseekcommongroundbasedonsharedinterests.

Whatseriousdifferences?Ukraine?Trumpdidntmentionthat.WhatcommongroundistherewithRussia?

Trumpiscorrectthattheforeignpolicyestablishmenthasmadeamess.Butitseemsclearheisinbedwithsomemembersofthe
establishment.Forexample,hehaslookedtoRichardHaassoftheCouncilonForeignRelationsforforeignpolicyadvice.I
respectRichardHaass,Trumphassaid.AndIlikehimalot.

TheTrumpforeignpolicyspeechwassponsoredbyTheNationalInterest,apublicationoftheCouncilfortheNationalInterest,
whoseBoardofDirectorsincludesHenryKissingerasitsHonoraryChairman.OtherboardmembersincludeLeslieGelb,
PresidentEmeritusoftheCouncilonForeignRelations.

KissingerhasbeenpraisedbyHillaryClinton,whosays,Kissingerisafriend,andIreliedonhiscounselwhenIservedas
SecretaryofState.ButKissingersworkasSecretaryofState,andsubsequentlyasaconsultanttoforeigncompaniesand
governments,hasresultedinthebuildingupofRussiaandChinaatAmericanexpense.Kissingeralsoengineeredourdefeatin
Vietnam,withthehelpofaliberalCongress.

Today,ourtopgeneralssayRussiaisthegreatestthreattotheUnitedStates,anexistentialthreat,meaningtheRussianscan
incinerateournationbecauseoftheirnuclearweaponsadvantage.TrumptalksaboutmodernizingtheU.S.nucleararsenal,but
withoutbeingcriticalofthegrowingRussiannuclearthreat.ThisstrangedeferencetoRussiaranthroughouttheentirespeech.

Inthrowingoutsomeredmeattoconservatives,Trumpsaid,Wewillnolongersurrenderthiscountryoritspeopletothefalse
songofglobalism.Thenation-stateremainsthetruefoundationforhappinessandharmony.Iamskepticalofinternationalunions
thattieusupandbringAmericadownandwillneverenterAmericaintoanyagreementthatreducesourabilitytocontrolourown
affairs.

WillhegettheU.S.outoftheU.N.and/oritsmanyagencies?Thatstherealtestofbeingagainstglobalism.Butratherthangetus
outoftheU.N.,itlookslikeTrumpwillworkwithRussiaandChinaontheU.N.SecurityCouncil.

Despitethemediabuildupforthespeech,itsclearthatonthematteroftheU.S-RussianrelationshipTrumpdoesntrepresenta
realchangefromthepoliciesoftheObama/Hillaryadministration.AcontestbetweenHillaryandTheDonaldmeanstheRussians
emergeasthewinnersnomatterwhowins.AnotherRussianresetisinthecards,compoundingtheAmericanweaknessthat
Trumpsayshewantstodosomethingabout.

CliffKincaidistheDirectoroftheAIMCenterforInvestigativeJournalism,andcanbecontacted
atcliff.kincaid@aim.org

 From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 04/28/201610:28:26AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:INTHE"NOTFUNNYANYMORE"CATEGORY:PUTIN'SPLAYSINTHEUSPOLITICALARENA[RIGHT&LEFT][From
Subject:
MH/POLITICO....PAULRG......ANTO/FAM.....MB/BBC......CLIFFK][TIMEFORTHE'USHROMADA'TOADDRESSTHEISSUE]

From:wolodymyrzarycky[mailto:wzarcusur@gmail.com]
Sent:Thursday,April28,20168:45AM
Subject:Fwd:INTHE"NOTFUNNYANYMORE"CATEGORY:PUTIN'SPLAYSINTHEUSPOLITICALARENA[RIGHT&LEFT][From
MH/POLITICO....PAULRG......ANTO/FAM.....MB/BBC......CLIFFK][TIMEFORTHE'USHROMADA'TOADDRESSTHEISSUE]

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>
Date:Thu,Apr28,2016at11:43AM
Subject:INTHE"NOTFUNNYANYMORE"CATEGORY:PUTIN'SPLAYSINTHEUSPOLITICALARENA[RIGHT&
LEFT][FromMH/POLITICO....PAULRG......ANTO/FAM.....MB/BBC......CLIFFK][TIMEFORTHE'USHROMADA'
TOADDRESSTHEISSUE]
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:MykolaHryckowian<mykcusur@gmail.com>
Date:Thu,Apr28,2016at12:45AM
Subject:didyouseethis?
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/04/donald-trump-2016-russia-today-rt-kremlin-media-vladimir-putin-213833

THEKREMLIN'SCANDIDATE

BACKWHENHEHOSTEDAPRIME-TIMETALKSHOWONMSNBC,EdSchultzdividedtheworldintoheroes
andvillains.TheheroesusuallyincludedDemocratslikeBarackObamaandHillaryClinton.The
villainsweremostRepublicans,andespeciallyDonaldJ.Trump.WhenTrumpobsessedover
Obamasbirthcertificateandacademiccredentialsin2011,Schultzbrandedhimaracist.When
Trumpflirtedwithrunningforpresidentthenextyear,Schultzridiculedhim.Whohasshownany
interestinDonaldTrumpbeingthenextpresidentoftheUnitedStatesotherthanDonaldTrump?
hefumed.Mr.Trump,stopembarrassingyourself!

AnotherbadguywasRussianPresidentVladimirPutin.Schultzdelightedinrippingconservatives
forwhathecalledtheirloveaffairwiththeRussianleaderandhisabilitytomakeObamalook
weakontheworldstage.TheyhateObamasomuchtheywillevenembracetheheadoftheKGB
...Putieistheirnewhero!Schultzsaidinone2013segment.Inanother,hesmuglyreminded
conservativesaboutPutinsnastyhumanrightsrecordandthewayhisrecklessbehaviorwas
cripplingRussia.Moregenerally,SchultzoftenframedGOPoppositiontoObamaasanti-
Americanorunpatriotic.

ThatwasallbeforelastJuly,whenMSNBCabruptlycanceledTheEdShowafterasix-yearrun
anddumpedthe62-year-oldprairiepopulistfromthenetwork.BythetimeSchultzresurfacedthis
January,hehadbeenreincarnatedinaverydifferentjournalisticform:asaprime-timehost,
reporterandpoliticalanalystforRTAmerica,theU.S.branchoftheglobalcablenetworkformerly
knownasRussiaToday,fundedbytheRussiangovernment.

GoneisthepraiseforObamaandClinton.Gone,too,arethemockingreferencestoPutie.And
gonearethejudgmentsaboutotherspatriotism.Schultzs8p.m.RTshow,TheNewswithEd
Schultz,nowfeaturesPutin-friendlydiscussionsaboutthefailingsofU.S.policyintheMiddle
East,AmericasbloateddefensebudgetandthefutilityofNATOstrategy.

EvenTrumpisgettinganewlookfromSchultz.SpeakingatvariouspointsonRTinrecent
months,SchultzhassaidthatTrumphastappedintoanangeramongworkingpeople,istalking
aboutthingsthepeoplecareabout,andeven,asSchultzrecentlydeclared,thatTrumpwould
easilybeabletofunctionaspresident.

Thosearestrangewordscomingfromanex-MSNBCliberalbetterknownforcastingTrumpasa
racistlout.ButRTisastrangeplace.ItstylesitselfasanedgyCNNorBBC,delivering
unvarnishednewsandcommentarywithamostlyhip,youngcast.Butjustunderthesurfaceisa
bought-and-paid-forpropagandavehicletryingtonudgeviewerstowardRussiassideofthestory
atatimewhenMoscowhasincreasinglybecomeaninternationalpariah,estrangedfromtheWest
overitsmilitaryaggressioninUkraine,Syriaandelsewhere,itselitessanctionedanditseconomy
strugglingwithisolation,decayinginfrastructureandcollapsingenergyprices.

Initsearlydays,RTmostlyofferedaKremlin-friendlydietofinternationalcoverage,feedingthe
Obama-bashing,America-in-declinenarrativewithC-listcommentatorswhocouldntgetanairing
elsewhereoncableTV.ButthatwasbeforeDonaldTrumpwhoseunlikelymutualadmirationfor
RussiasstrongmanpresidenthasbeenoneofthestrangersubplotsofthisAmericanpolitical
season.

TheblusterybillionairehaspraisedPutinasastrongleader,spokenofclosertieswithMoscowandmused
aboutwhetherNATOisobsolete.AttheforeignpolicyspeechTrumpdeliveredinWashingtononApril27,
theRussianambassadortotheUnitedStateswassittinginthefrontrow.AsTrumphasrisen,RThasgotten
muchmoreinterestedintheU.S.presidentialcampaign.TuneintoEdSchultzandhiscolleaguesthesedays
andyoullfindapresidentialracefeaturingHillaryClintonasamalevolentwarmonger,BernieSandersasan
insurgentheroandDonaldTrumpasaforeignpolicysavant.

AnetworkthatupuntilnowhasfoundlittletocelebrateaboutAmericahasfinallysettledonacandidateit
canbelievein.VladimirPutinsTVchannelisntjustcoveringthe2016campaign:Increasingly,itschoosing
sides.

***
TheRussianpresidentsfacewasafaintshadeofgreenashegazedupatagiantimageofLarryKing.It
wasDecember10,andVladimirPutinwastheguestofhonoratRTs10thanniversarydinner,atMoscows
MetropolHotelintheshadowoftheKremlin.Putinwasntgreenfromfoodpoisoningthehuecamefrom
lightingthatbathedtheroominthelimeofthenetworkslogo.

KingwasopeningtheceremoniesbyvideomessagefromLosAngeles,wherethe82-year-old
nowhostsadiminishedversionofhisoldCNNtalkshowforRT,joiningarosterofhoststhat
includesotherpast-their-primeU.S.celebritieslikeSchultzandJessetheBodyVentura,the
formerwrestlingchamp-turnedMinnesotagovernorwhoalsohasashowonRT.Inhistrademark
shirtsleevesandsuspenders,KingapologizedforhisabsenceandletPutinknowhedloveto
interviewhim.TheRussianleaderlookedvisiblypleased.

SittingnexttoPutinwasRTs36-year-oldeditor-in-chief,MargaritaSimonyan,araven-haired
formerstatetelevisionreporterwhotookoverRTwhenshewas25.Sheisafeistydefenderofher
network,oftenlashingoutagainstcriticsandtherearemanywhosayRTislittlemorethana
weaponinaRussianinformationwaragainsttheWest.SecretaryofStateJohnKerrycallsthe
networkapropagandabullhornforPutinithasbeenasubjectatHouseandSenateforeign
affairshearingsand,inmid-March,twoU.S.senatorsintroducedtheCounteringInformation
WarfareAct,whichisaimedinpartatthenetwork.SimonyanalmostseemstoenjoybattlingRTs
legionsofcritics.WhenaBuzzFeedreporteraskedherin2014aboutallegedKremlininfluence,
Simonyanunleashedamockingreply.[W]ejustreadthelatestKremlinpressreleasesoncamera.
Itismuchmoreefficientthatway,shewroteonRTswebsite,addingsardonicallythatthenetwork
unleash[es]theKGBonanyonewhodarestoleave.Andyet,Simonyandoesinfactkeepa
yellowtelephonewithnodialpadonherdesk,whichSimonyanconcededtoaTimereporterlast
yearisasecurelinetotheKremlin.

Inhisremarksatthedinner,Putinshowedobviousprideinthenetwork,sayingitseffortsreminded
himofthewayhardworkingRussiansailorsteartheshirtsofftheirbacks.Hemostdecidedly
wasntmentioningthathotlinetotheKremlinonSimonyansdeskorKerrysscathingdismissalof
hisbullhorn.Farfromit.Yourgreateststrengthispresentinginformationfreelyand
independently,Putintoldthecrowd,whosippedwineintranslucentchairsaroundwhite-clothed
tables.Wedonotcontrolyou.andwedonotmeddle,Putinsaid.HealsoboastedthatRThas
areachof700millionviewers,thoughheconcededtheyhadnoideahowmanypeopleactually
watchU.S.officialssaytheAmericanviewershipismuchlowerthanRTsestimateof8millionper
weekoncablesystemslikeComcast,TimeWarnerandDishNetwork.(Theyarealsoskepticalof
RTsclaimtohaveabudgetofonly$250millionworldwide.InMarch,RepublicanSenatorRob
PortmancitedreportssayingthecostofthenetworksWashingtonbureaualonecouldbe$400
million,thoughRTadamantlydeniesthat,andtheoriginalsourceofthereportisunclear.)

PutindidhintatRTsroleinthepoliticalwarRussiafindsitselfwagingwiththeWest,referringto
thecomplicatedstateofglobalpoliticsanddistortionsofevents,includinginUkraineandSyria,
andsayingthatRTcandescribethetrueeventstoagrowingglobalaudienceyearningfor
unbiasedfacts.

ButPutinscommentsareatoddswithhowthenetworkoperatesinpractice,accordingto
interviewswithpeoplewhocloselywatchorhaveworkedatRT,andmyownhoursofmonitoring
thenetworkanditswebsite.OneformerRTstafferinWashingtontoldmethatsheleftherjob,
alongwithotherswhohavealsospokentothemedia,afterseeingthenetworksMoscow-based
editorsinstructjournaliststomaketheircoveragehewtotheMoscow-approvedpoliticalline.Such
concernseruptedintofullviewacoupleyearsagowhenRussiamarchedintoneighboringUkraine
toannextheCrimeanPeninsula,leadinga28-year-oldRTpresenternamedLizWahltoquiton-
air,declaring,IcannotbeapartofanetworkfundedbytheRussiangovernmentthat
whitewashestheactionsofPutin.

Justunderthesurfaceisabought-and-paid-forpropagandavehicletryingtonudge
viewerstowardRussiassideofthestoryatatimewhenMoscowhasincreasingly
becomeaninternationalpariah.

Today,itsclearRToperateslessasthefreeandindependentnewssourcePutintouted,and
moreasavehiclethatincreasinglyusestheavailabletoolsofthedigitalrevolutionfromviral
videos(AnimatedGenitals,LawnmowerExplodes)toentertaininglysnarkytweetstopromote
Russiasmessage.ItspositioningitselfasascrappydissentertotheoldWesternmedias
monopolyoninformation,athemeSimonyanemphasizedtomeinastatementforthisstory.
Americans,shesaid,watchRTforstories,viewsandanalysistheywontfindinthemainstream
media.AsforcriticismofRTscoverageoftheUnitedStatesandthe2016campaign,she
soundedapositivelyTrumpiantheme,sayingRTscriticsaremostlymembersoftheU.S.political
establishment,whoareuncomfortablewithlosingthelongtimemonopolyoninformation.

SeatednexttoSimonyanatthedinnerandjusttwoseatsawayfromPutinhimselfwasperhapsthe
mostintriguingexampleofhowtheRussianshavegoneaboutrecruitingdisaffectedmembersof
thatestablishment:arugged-lookingmaninatuxedowholessthan18monthsearlierhadbeen
headoftheDefenseIntelligenceAgency,thePentagonspowerfulin-houseequivalentoftheCIA.
MichaelFlynn,nowaprivatecitizenafterareportedlydisgruntledretirement,wasnotthereto
gatherintelligence.HisattendanceattheRTgala,beforewhichhealsogaveatalkonworld
affairs,appearedtoinauguratearelationshipwiththenetworkpresumablyapaidone,though
neitherFlynnnorRTansweredqueriesonthesubject.Flynnnowmakessemi-regular
appearancesonRTasananalyst,inwhichheoftenarguesthattheU.S.andRussiashouldbe
workingmorecloselytogetheronissueslikefightingISILandendingSyriascivilwar.Russiahas
itsownnationalsecuritystrategy,andwehavetorespectthat,hesaidinonerecentappearance.
Andwehavetotrytofigureout:HowdowecombinetheUnitedStatesnationalsecuritystrategy
alongwithRussiasnationalsecuritystrategy,despiteallthechallengesthatweface?

Atamomentofsemi-hostilitybetweentheU.S.andRussia,thepresenceofsuchanimportant
figureatPutinstablestartledcurrentandformermembersoftheObamaadministration.Itwas
extremelyoddthatheshowedupinatuxedototheRussiangovernmentpropagandaarmsparty,
oneformerPentagonofficialtoldme.

Readmore:http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/04/donald-trump-2016-russia-today-rt-kremlin-media-
vladimir-putin-213833#ixzz476128h00
Followus:@politicoonTwitter|PoliticoonFacebook

----------Forwardedmessage----------
 From:VRT
Date:Thu,Apr28,2016at10:46AM
Subject:PLEASENOTE---OLDERBUTSTILLVALID:"PutinFavorsTrumporSandersforPresident.HeresWhy
ThatMatterstoYou"

To:"Waz(Columbia)"<waz2102@columbia.edu>

Putin Favors Trump or Sanders for President. Heres Why

That Matters to You

BLAZE

PaulGregory

PaulGregoryisaspecialistonRussia,theSovietUnionandUkraine.HeisaCullenDistinguishedProfessorattheUniversityof
HoustonaResearchFellow,attheHooverInstitutionatStanfordUniversity

1K
SHARES

ShareThis

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RTs(RussiaToday,theKremlinsmediaarmtotheoutsideworld)presscoverageoftheU.S.
presidentialprimarieshasbeenuniformlyfavorabletowardsBernieSandersandDonaldTrump,
whileHillaryClintonandMarcoRubiohavebeenthebuttofnegativereporting.

TheotherRepublicancandidateshavereceivedlittlecoverage,eitherpositiveornegative.I
guesstheKremlindoesnotconsidertheminthemixoflikelywinners.

Despitebudgetwoes,VladimirPutindoesnotspareexpenseingettingouthismessage
throughRTanditssisteroutletSputnik.Bothaimforadegreeofrespectabilityandtryto
refrainfromtheoutrightoutlandish.ThereareallkindsofunofficialoutletsforKremlin
garbageinsocialmedia.
(APPhoto/AlexanderZemlianichenko)

RTportraysSandersasakindly,grandfatherlyfigure,anidealistdedicatedtoequality,justice,
fairness,socialdemocracyandafighteragainstcorporateinterests,themilitaryindustrial
complex,andthewealthy.Sandersfollowersarepicturedasidealistsstrugglingforajust
society.
RTsHillaryClintonisaflawedandunpopularfigurecompromisedbyemailscandals,flip-flops,
areputationfordishonesty,grubbingforcampaigncontributions,cheatingintownhall
meetings,futileattemptstodistanceherselffromWallStreet,andalosingbattleagainst
thehumble,regular-guySanders.
OntheRepublicanside,RTlabelsTrumpastheclearfrontrunner,anextraordinaryperson,
whoattractsenthusiasticandunprecedentedcrowds.RTheraldshisrejectionoftheIraqwar,
hismanytalents,hiscuttingdebatestyle,andhisrespectforanddefenseofVladimirPutin.

DonaldTrumpFavorabilityRatingOverTime|InsideGov

RT(anditssisterpublication,Sputnik)havelesskindwordsforMarcoRubio.Amongother
missteps,RubioissaidtohavedeclaredtheParismassacreanactofGod,histhugs
haveattackedprotesters,heisaWallStreetinsider,andwishestocanceltheIraniannuclear
deal.RTleavesittotheKremlinsbottomfeederstolabelRubioawarmonger,butthey
ridiculehimforwearinghighheelstomaskhisshortstature.

Inthemostrecentdebate,SanderspickedtinyparanoidNorthKoreaasthegreatestthreatto
America,versusClintonsbelligerentRussia.Russia,Clintonwarns,istryingtomovepost
WorldWarIIboundariesandtosetEuropeancountriesoneagainsttheother.Sanderscallfor
anewNATO-likeorganizationthatincludesRussiatocombatradicalIslamicterrorismmustbe
beautifulmusictoPutinsears.Putinshouldbeconfidenthecanruncirclesaroundtheother-
worldlySanders.PutinschoicesofSandersandTrumprequirenogeniustoanalyze.Sanderss
antiwarpacifismandinexperienceinworldpowerpoliticsmakehimaseasymarkforPutin.

BernieSandersFavorabilityRatingOverTime|InsideGov

PutinhasanevenstrongeraffinityforTrump.TrumpsatisfiesPutinspathologicalneedfor
praiseandrespect.TrumpcharacterizesPutinaleader(incontrasttoBarackObama)
anddefendshimagainstchargesofmurderingopponents:Putinkilledreporters?Proveit.
Inhisannual2015pressconference,PutincharacterizedTrumpasaverycolorfuland
talentedman,nodoubtaboutthat.Hesaysthathewantstomovetoanotherlevelof
relations,toadeeperlevelofrelationswithRussia.Howcanwenotwelcomethat?
TrumpsgreatestattractionforPutinishisapparentindifferencetowardsconflictsinwhich
Russiaisengaged.AccordingtoTrump,theyarenotAmericasbusiness:LetRussiafight
[IslamicState],iftheywanttofighttheminSyria.LetSyriaand[IslamicState]fight.Why
dowecare?
IfTrumpwantsotherstofightMiddleEasternwars,hemightdecide,toPutinsdelight,tolet
haplessandtoothlessGermanyorFrancedefendUkraineandtheBalticstatesfromRussian
aggression.
UnlikeTrumpsisolationismwithrespecttoEuropeanandMiddleEasternhotspots,Putin
understandsthatRubiohasstakedoutahawkishpositionwithrespecttoRussia.
RubiojoinedhisSenatecolleaguesinsupportingstrictersanctionsagainstRussiaandin
pushingforlethalmilitaryaidtoUkraine.Toaddinsulttoinjury,RubiohasdaredtocallPutin
agangsterleadingacriminalregimeandhasdredgedupthe1999apartment
bombingslikelyorderedbyPutintojustifytheSecondChechenWar.Russiacannotallowa
threatlikeRubiotobecomepresident.

AmericanvoterssupportTrumpandSandersbecausetheyareangrywithhowWashington
works.Theyareingoodcompany,andtheyhaveeveryreasontobeappalled.

TrumpandSanderssupportersmust,however,understandthattheirbackingofapie-in-the-
skysocialist/pacifistoranentertainer/businessmanputstheminthesamecampasRussias
corruptleader.VladimirPutinishopingAmericanvotersgivehimtheopportunitytoplaychess
againstcheckersamateursashepullsEuropeapart,strengthensunsavoryregimesinIranand
Syria,andseekstorestorelostSovietterritorybyforce.

TheBlazecontributorchannelsupportsanopendiscourseonarangeofviews.Theopinions
expressedinthischannelaresolelythoseofeachindividualauthor.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:AntonivFamily<antoniv_family@msn.com>
Date:Wed,Apr27,2016at11:40PM
Subject:TrumpsForeignPolicySpeech(transcript)/+WSJ
To:

WSJ"Mr.TrumprepeatedlysaidatopprioritywouldbeexpandingtheU.S.military,modernizingits
nuclearweaponsarsenalandgreatlyincreasingthenumberofU.S.troops,shipsandaircraft.Buthe
stoppedshortofdetailingwhatanewAmericanmilitarywoulddo,orwhattheroleofabeefed-uparmed
serviceswouldbe,orhowthatplanwouldcoexistwithavisionofagreatlyreducedU.S.footprint."

TrumpsAmericaFirstForeignPolicySpeech(transcript)

http://time.com/4309786/read-donald-trumps-america-first-foreign-policy-speech/

...WedesiretolivepeacefullyandinfriendshipwithRussiaandChina.Wehaveseriousdifferenceswith
thesetwonations,andmustregardthemwithopeneyes,butwearenotboundtobeadversaries.We
shouldseekcommongroundbasedonsharedinterests.

Russia,forinstance,hasalsoseenthehorrorofIslamicterrorism.Ibelieveaneasingoftensions,and
improvedrelationswithRussiafromapositionofstrengthonlyispossible,absolutelypossible.
Commonsensesaysthiscycle,thishorriblecycleofhostilitymustendandideallywillendsoon.Good
forbothcountries.

SomesaytheRussianswontbereasonable.Iintendtofindout.Ifwecantmakeadealundermy
administration,adealthatsgreatnotgood,greatforAmerica,butalsogoodforRussia,thenwe
willquicklywalkfromthetable.Itsassimpleasthat.Weregoingtofindout.

FixingourrelationswithChinaisanotherimportantstepandreallytowardcreatinganevenmore
prosperousperiodoftime.Chinarespectsstrengthandbylettingthemtakeadvantageofus
economically,whichtheyaredoinglikeneverbefore,wehavelostalloftheirrespect.

WehaveamassivetradedeficitwithChina,adeficitthatwehavetofindawayquickly,andImean
quickly,tobalance.AstrongandsmartAmericaisanAmericathatwillfindabetterfriendinChina,better
thanwehaverightnow.LookatwhatChinaisdoingintheSouthChinaSea.Theyrenotsupposedto
bedoingit.

Norespectforthiscountryorthispresident.Wecanbothbenefitorwecanbothgoourseparateways.If
needbe,thatswhatsgoingtohavetohappen.

AfterImelectedpresident,IwillalsocallforasummitwithourNATOalliesandaseparatesummitwith
ourAsianallies.Inthesesummits,wewillnotonlydiscussarebalancingoffinancialcommitments,but
takeafreshlookathowwecanadoptnewstrategiesfortacklingourcommonchallenges.Forinstance,
wewilldiscusshowwecanupgradeNATOsoutdatedmissionandstructure,grownoutoftheColdWar,
toconfrontoursharedchallenges,includingmigrationandIslamicterrorism.
...

DonaldTrumpCallsforDramaticBreakWithCurrentU.S.ForeignPolicy

GOPfront-runnercallsforexpandingthesizeofthemilitary,whilepullingbackfromglobalhotspots

http://www.wsj.com/articles/donald-trump-calls-for-dramatic-break-with-current-u-s-foreign-policy-
1461783848

Inararepolicyspeech,Republicanfront-runnerDonaldTrumpoutlinedhisforeignpolicyplanifelected
asthenextpresidentoftheUnitedStates.

ByDamianPalettaandPeterNicholas

UpdatedApril27,20169:48p.m.

821COMMENTS

Republicanpresidentialfront-runnerDonaldTrump,emboldenedbyfreshprimarywinsthisweekand
pivotingtowardalikelygeneral-electionfight,calledWednesdayfortheU.S.topullbackfromitsglobal
engagements,markingadecisivebreakfromrecentRepublicanorthodoxy.

Mr.Trumpsfirstmajorforeign-policyaddressoutlinedaseriesofbluntprinciples,someofthem
arguablycontradictory,andwasnotableforitswillingnesstoexcoriatethevisionofformerPresident
GeorgeW.Bush,aswellasPresidentBarackObama.

ThespeechcameadayafterMr.TrumpandDemocratHillaryClintontookall-but-irreversiblecontrolof
theirpartiesnominationprocesseswithsweepingprimaryvictoriesinNortheasternstates.Theirrivals
respondeddifferentlytotheirfadinghopesonWednesday.

Mr.Trumpsleadingrival,TexasSen.TedCruz,tooktheunusualstepofnaminghispotentialrunning
matethreemonthsbeforetheRepublicanconvention,choosingformerHewlett-PackardCo.Chief
ExecutiveCarlyFiorina.

VermontSen.BernieSanders,Mrs.Clintonsrival,islayingoffhundredsoffieldstaff,thecampaignsaid.
ThemovefollowedatoughstretchinwhichMr.SanderslostfiveofthelastsixprimaryconteststoMrs.
Clinton.

Thefront-runners,incontrast,spentthedaymostlyfocusedoneachotherandthegeneralelection.The
ClintoncampaignsoughttocapitalizeonMr.TrumpscommentinavictoryspeechTuesdaynightthatif
Mrs.Clintonwereaman,Idontthinkshedget5%ofthevote.Clintonaidessentoutafundraising
messageattackinghisabsurddiatribeagainstHillary,addingthatMrs.Clintonneededdonations
becauseshehadtobepreparedforMr.Trumpsunpredictablemessage.

Thenewlandscapepromptedrenewedscrutinyofthefront-runnerspositions,especiallywhenitcomes
toMr.Trump,whowouldbetheonlymajorpartynomineeinrecentmemorywithnogovernmentor
militaryexperience.Acentralaspectofhisforeign-policyaddress,attheMayflowerHotelafewblocks
fromtheWhiteHouse,wasitssolemndelivery,aftermonthsofraucousralliesandoftencoarse
comments.

Mr.TrumpsoverridingthemewasthattheU.S.mustresetitsrelationswithothercountries,easing
tensionswhenpossible,showingenemiesthattheU.S.meansbusiness,andguardingagainst
becominginvolvedintoomanypartsoftheworld.DespitedifferenceswithChinaandRussia,hesaid,
Wearenotboundtobeadversaries.

Strikinganationalisticandpopulisttone,Mr.Trumpwasunambiguousinsayinghewoulddemandthat
alliespaytheU.S.partofthebillfordefendingthemorelsetheywouldhavetodefendthemselves.

ManyofMr.TrumpscommentscontrastedwithrecentRepublicanforeignpolicy.GOPleaders,ledby
suchfiguresasMr.BushandSen.JohnMcCain(R.,Ariz.),haveoftencalledformuscularU.S.
engagementintheMiddleEast,Ukraineandelsewhere.

Thespeechwasmostlydevoidofnewproposals,butwasharshinitscriticismofMr.ObamaforwhatMr.
TrumpcalledanincoherentforeignpolicythatfavoredAmericasenemies,disappointeditsfriendsand
relegateditssecuritytoalowerpriority.

MyforeignpolicywillalwaysputtheinterestsoftheAmericanpeopleandAmericansecurityaboveall
else,Mr.Trumpsaid.Ithastobefirst.Hastobe.

WhiteHousespokesmanJoshEarnestdefendedMr.Obamasrecordandsaidvoterswouldhaveto
decideforthemselveswhotheywantasthenextcommanderinchief.

WhatistrueisthatPresidentObamaoverthecourseofhispresidencyhasworkedtounitethe
internationalcommunitytoconfrontawiderangeofthreats,hesaid.

Mr.TrumprepeatedlysaidatopprioritywouldbeexpandingtheU.S.military,modernizingitsnuclear
weaponsarsenalandgreatlyincreasingthenumberofU.S.troops,shipsandaircraft.

ButhestoppedshortofdetailingwhatanewAmericanmilitarywoulddo,orwhattheroleofabeefed-up
armedserviceswouldbe,orhowthatplanwouldcoexistwithavisionofagreatlyreducedU.S.
footprint.Mr.TrumpnotedthattheU.S.mustbewillingtostopdefendingEuropeanalliesthathesaid
dontcontributeenoughtotheNorthAtlanticTreatyOrganization,adding,TheU.S.mustbepreparedto
letthesecountriesdefendthemselves.

WhileMr.TrumpoutlinedgeneralprincipleslikemakingAmericaagreatandreliableallyagain,he
providedlittleindicationofhowthatmightplayoutinacomplexhotspotsuchasSyria.

Advocatingbothaggressivenessanddisengagement,Mr.TrumpdidnthesitatetogoafterMr.Bush,
sayinghis2003decisiontoinvadeIraqdestabilizedtheMiddleEastandthebiggestbeneficiaryhas
beenIran.AndhesaidMr.ObamasactionsintheMiddleEastgaverisetoIslamicState,aterror
networkthathesaidmustbedefeated,thoughhedidntspecifyhow.

Despitethegrandersetting,Mr.Trumpdidntretracthismorecontroversialforeign-policyideas,
reiterating,forexample,hiscallforapauseinallowingMuslimstoentertheU.S.

Buthealsodidntrepeatseveralproposalsthathavebeenpillarsofhisnational-securityplanformonths
andaregreetedwithroarsofapprovalathisrallies.Theseincludetheconstructionofa1,000-milewall
ontheU.S.-Mexicoborderandharsherinterrogationsofterrorsuspects.
Mr.TrumptriedtotetherMrs.ClintontoMr.Obamaherbosswhenshewassecretaryofstatesaying
thetwolettheU.S.loseinfluenceandalliesaroundtheworld.

Ourgoalispeaceandprosperity,notwaranddestruction,Mr.Trumpsaid.Thebestwaytoachieve
thosegoalsisthroughadisciplined,deliberateandconsistentforeignpolicy.WithPresidentObamaand
SecretaryClinton,wevehadtheexactoppositeareckless,rudderlessandaimlessforeignpolicy,one
thathasblazedapathofdestructioninitswake.

TheClintoncampaignwassharplycriticalofthespeech,sayingtheTrumpapproachwouldmakethe
worldmorechaoticanddangerous.Iveneverseensuchacombinationofsimplisticslogans,
contradictionsandmisstatementsinonespeech,saidformerSecretaryofStateMadeleineAlbrightina
callarrangedbytheClintoncampaign.

Ms.AlbrightalsocriticizedhisuseofthetermAmericaFirst,sayingitechoedtheAmericaFirst
CommitteethaturgedtheU.S.tostayoutofWorldWarII,despiteNaziGermanysaggressionin
Europe.Maybeheneverreadhistory,orhejustdoesntunderstandit,shesaid.

SeveralRepublicans,includingSen.LindseyGraham(R.,S.C.),anadvocateofstrongU.S.engagement,
alsoattackedthespeech.

Manynational-securityandforeign-policyadvisersfrombothpartieshaverejectedMr.Trumpspolicies,
sayingbanningtheentryofMuslimsandbuildinganewalliancewithRussiacouldbedangerous.

TherearesignsthatmoreRepublicansarewarmingtoMr.Trumpscandidacy,oratleastcomingto
termswiththefactthatheistheirlikelynominee.SenateForeignRelationsChairmanBobCorker(R.,
Tenn.),whosofarhaddeclinedtoweighinontheWhiteHouserace,said,DonaldTrumpdelivereda
verygoodforeign-policyspeechinwhichhelaidouthisvisionforAmericanengagementintheworld.

Atonepoint,Mr.TrumpsaidtheonlywaytocombatIslamicStatewastobecomemoreunpredictable
asanation.

Wearetotallypredictable,hesaid.Wetelleverything.Weresendingtroops.Wetellthem.Were
sendingsomethingelse.Wehaveanewsconference.Wehavetobeunpredictable.Andwehavetobe
unpredictablestartingnow.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:MartaBurachok<marta.burachok@gmail.com>
Date:Thu,Apr28,2016at7:52AM
Subject:WhatdoRussiansthinkofDonaldTrump?-BBCNews
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

http://www.bbc.com/news/36155109

WhatdoRussiansthinkofDonaldTrump?
27April2016Lastupdatedat22:52BST

Ifthepopulationsoftherestoftheworld'sG20countriescouldvoteintheUSelection,they'doverwhelminglyvoteforHillary
ClintonoverDonaldTrump.

That'saccordingtoarecentpollbyGermany'sHandelsblattpublishinggroupandYouGov,theonlinepollster.

Butthere'sonecountrywheretheformerFirstLadytakesabackseattothebillionaireRepublicanfront-runnerfromNew
York,andthat'sRussia.

SteveRosenbergwenttoanAmerican-themeddinerinMoscowtofindoutwhy.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:CliffKincaid<kincaid@comcast.net>
Date:Thu,Apr28,2016at7:53AM
Subject:TrumpJumpsIntoBedWithPutin
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

TrumpJumpsIntoBedWithPutin
ByCliffKincaid

http://www.aim.org/aim-column/trump-jumps-into-bed-with-putin/

DonaldJ.Trumpsforeignpolicyaddresswasdeliveredwiththeaidofateleprompterandwrittenbyhispro-Russianadvisers.He
tooknoquestions.ItwasareplayofformerSecretaryofStateHillaryClintonsdisastrousRussianresetthatledtotheRussian
invasionofUkraine.Yet,TrumppretendstobeanopponentofMrs.Clintonsforeignpolicy.

WeclearlysawtheinfluenceofTrumpspro-Russianadvisersinthespeech.TherewasabsolutelynorecognitionoftheRussian
threattoEurope,includingitsinvasionandoccupationofUkraine.

Evenourmediacouldntignorethisblatantomission.CNNinternationalcorrespondentFrederickPleitgennotedafterthespeech
thatTrumpsomissionofUkrainewasgreatnewsforRussia,andthattheRussianswillbealmostecstaticoverthespeech.He
saidmanypeopleinRussiaareadmirersofTrump.

Ofcourse,TrumpadmiresVladimirPutin,andviceversa.Thatisamatterofrecord.Trumpdidntdisavowhispreviouspro-Putin
comments.

TrumpwasnavetotheextremeintalkingaboutcooperationwithRussia.Forexample,herepeatedlytalkedaboutthethreat
posedbyIran,withoutnotingthatIransmainsponsorisRussia.TrumpcannotbetoughwithIranwhileplayingnicewithRussia.

TrumpclaimstobeforIsrael,butheignoresRussianbackingfortheIraniannuclearweaponsprogram.Thismakesnosense,
exceptfromapro-Russianpointofview.TheIranianthreatismadepossiblebyPutin.

TrumpsaidhewantedtopressureChinatodosomethingaboutNorthKoreasnuclearprogram.ButChinaandNorthKoreaare
bothcommunistcountries.Theyhaveatreatytogether.NorthKoreaalsohasatreatywithRussia.Theinternationalcommunist
movementisaliveandwell.ChinabacksNorthKoreaforideologicalreasons.

SincetheendoftheColdWarandthebreakupoftheSovietUnion,wevelackedacoherentforeignpolicy,Trumpsaid.
PerhapstheSovietbreakupwasdesignedtoconfuseus.PerhapsthefactthatRussianPresidentPutinisaformerKGBofficeris
noaccident,andtheresareasonwhyRussianforeignpolicyresemblesthatoftheoldSovietUnion.

IfPresidentObamasgoalhadbeentoweakenAmerica,hecouldnothavedoneabetterjob,saidTrump.ButwhatisTrumps
goal?TrumpfailedtoarticulateapolicyofregimechangeinRussiathatwouldputPutinontrialforviolationsofinternationallaw
andcrimesagainsthumanityinUkraineandSyria.

MoscowhascreatedmuchoftheconflictintheMiddleEastandaroundtheworldthatthreatenstheU.S.,EuropeandIsrael.
TrumpseemsoblivioustoRussianaggression.

TrumpsayswecanjoinwithRussiaagainstIslamicterrorism.ButsomeexpertssaytheRussiansarebehindISIS,al-Qaedaand
otherIslamicterroristgroups,forthepurposeofdestabilizingtheregionandhelpingIranexpand.

TrumpsapproachisthesameattitudethatcharacterizedtheObama/Clintonadministration.AfterHillarysdisastrousresetwith
RussiacameRussianmembershipintheWorldTradeOrganizationandmoreWesterninvestmentinRussia.Then,Obamamocked
MittRomneyduringthe2012presidentialcampaignforcallingRussiaageopoliticalthreat.Now,Trumpproposestoignorethe
RussianinvasionofUkraineandengineeraresetofhisownwithPutin.PerhapsTrumpsattitudeisdrivenbyhishistoryoftryingto
dobusinessdealswithMoscow.

Inoneofhismostnavemoments,Trumpsaid,IbelieveaneasingoftensionsandimprovedrelationswithRussia,fromaposition
ofstrengthonly,ispossible,absolutelypossible.Commonsensesaysthiscycle,thishorriblecycleofhostilitymustend,andideally
willendsoon.Goodforbothcountries.ApositionofstrengthwouldseemtodictatethatweconfrontRussiainUkraineby
supportingthegovernmentandpeoplethere.TheywanttobefreeofRussiancontrol.TrumpsaysAmericashouldbetheleaderof
theFreeWorld.YetTrumpjusthiredanadviserwhowasamemberoftheteambackingthecommunistsinUkraine.Another
TrumpadviserworksforaRussiangascompany.

ThebillionairebusinessmanhasastrangeblindspotwhenitcomestoPutinsRussia.

ApositionofstrengthmeansconfrontingRussiaoveritssupportofIran.Trumpsaid,Wedesiretolivepeacefullyandinfriendship
withRussiaandChina.Wehaveseriousdifferenceswiththesetwonations,andmustregardthemwithopeneyes,butwearenot
boundtobeadversaries.Weshouldseekcommongroundbasedonsharedinterests.

Whatseriousdifferences?Ukraine?Trumpdidntmentionthat.WhatcommongroundistherewithRussia?

Trumpiscorrectthattheforeignpolicyestablishmenthasmadeamess.Butitseemsclearheisinbedwithsomemembersofthe
establishment.Forexample,hehaslookedtoRichardHaassoftheCouncilonForeignRelationsforforeignpolicyadvice.I
respectRichardHaass,Trumphassaid.AndIlikehimalot.

TheTrumpforeignpolicyspeechwassponsoredbyTheNationalInterest,apublicationoftheCouncilfortheNationalInterest,
whoseBoardofDirectorsincludesHenryKissingerasitsHonoraryChairman.OtherboardmembersincludeLeslieGelb,
PresidentEmeritusoftheCouncilonForeignRelations.

KissingerhasbeenpraisedbyHillaryClinton,whosays,Kissingerisafriend,andIreliedonhiscounselwhenIservedas
SecretaryofState.ButKissingersworkasSecretaryofState,andsubsequentlyasaconsultanttoforeigncompaniesand
governments,hasresultedinthebuildingupofRussiaandChinaatAmericanexpense.Kissingeralsoengineeredourdefeatin
Vietnam,withthehelpofaliberalCongress.

Today,ourtopgeneralssayRussiaisthegreatestthreattotheUnitedStates,anexistentialthreat,meaningtheRussianscan
incinerateournationbecauseoftheirnuclearweaponsadvantage.TrumptalksaboutmodernizingtheU.S.nucleararsenal,but
withoutbeingcriticalofthegrowingRussiannuclearthreat.ThisstrangedeferencetoRussiaranthroughouttheentirespeech.

Inthrowingoutsomeredmeattoconservatives,Trumpsaid,Wewillnolongersurrenderthiscountryoritspeopletothefalse
songofglobalism.Thenation-stateremainsthetruefoundationforhappinessandharmony.Iamskepticalofinternationalunions
thattieusupandbringAmericadownandwillneverenterAmericaintoanyagreementthatreducesourabilitytocontrolourown
affairs.

WillhegettheU.S.outoftheU.N.and/oritsmanyagencies?Thatstherealtestofbeingagainstglobalism.Butratherthangetus
outoftheU.N.,itlookslikeTrumpwillworkwithRussiaandChinaontheU.N.SecurityCouncil.

Despitethemediabuildupforthespeech,itsclearthatonthematteroftheU.S-RussianrelationshipTrumpdoesntrepresenta
realchangefromthepoliciesoftheObama/Hillaryadministration.AcontestbetweenHillaryandTheDonaldmeanstheRussians
emergeasthewinnersnomatterwhowins.AnotherRussianresetisinthecards,compoundingtheAmericanweaknessthat
Trumpsayshewantstodosomethingabout.

CliffKincaidistheDirectoroftheAIMCenterforInvestigativeJournalism,andcanbecontacted
atcliff.kincaid@aim.org

 From: Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 04/27/201602:10:18PM
To: DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>
Subject: DUGIN'SGUIDELINE-TrumpandClintonthebattlewillbebloody|Katehonthinktank.Geopolitics&Tradition

DUGIN'SGUIDELINE-TrumpandClintonthebattlewillbebloody

Hello!YouarewatchingDugin'sguideline.IfeelIhavegoodnewsaboutAmericaandtheAmericanprimaries.Nowwe
arecertainthatourheroDonaldTrumpandbloodyHilarywillbefightinginthefinaltouroftheUSelections.That'sgreat!
Iamgoingtoexplainwhy.

Withthesetwocandidateswecanbesuretohaveallthatwewantinthenearfuture.Bothofthemareexcellentchoices.
LetusimaginetheUSaftertheelections.Wehavebuttwopossibilities:nomore,orHilaryorTrump.Inbothinstances,
wewillwinandhumanitycanbehappy.

LetsimagineHilarywins.SheisnotObamasheismuchworsethanObama.Behindheraremadneoconsthatwilldo
anythingtoprolongtheagonyofAmericanimperialism.TheywillreinforcethebloodychaosintheMiddleEast,andthey
willbeaggressiveandarrogant.Andeverybodywillrealizethattheyhavehadenough-enoughwiththeUSandits
hegemony,intervention,andmorbidfinancialsystem.Obamawasseenasachanceforchange.WithHilary,thereisnot
evenadistantimageofthis.ShewillbringtheAmericanCenturytoadecisiveend.Thefamousimperialoverstretchwill
definitivelydestroyAmericatheabrogationoftheSecondAmendmentwillclosethecase.

HilaryClintonmeanstheendofAmericanruleoftheworld.Shewillstubbornlypersistincontinuingthestrategyofliberal
imperialism,blamingothers,andexportingbloodychaosintheformofcolorrevolutions.ButthiswillburyAmericaasa
Stateanditspeople.Soatthismomentwehaveachance.ThefalloftheWestisachancefortherest.Itisourwindowof
opportunity.PatrickBuchananpertinentlyoncesaid:Americahasgainedtheworldbuthaslostherself.Thistime,Hilarys
Americaisgoingtolosetheworldandloseherselfaswell.Bytryingtoretainhegemonyandprolongtheunipolarworld
system,theUSwillfinallycollapsebecauseitissimplyimpossible.Thiswillbetheagonyaverydangerousandrisky
time.ButafterwardswewillbefinallyfreefromtheAmericans.Nicejob,Hilary!Wearereadyforyourapocalyptic
show.

ButwhatifDonaldTrumpwins?Whatshouldweexpect?Trump,Isuppose,willleavetheworldaloneandputaside
hegemonicclaims.Maybehewill-atleasttemporarily-losetheworld,buthewillsaveAmerica.Judgingbyhis
declarations,Trumpisgoingtoreturntothepre-Wilsonianera,totheMonroedoctrine.Hewillconcentrateondomestic
affairs,savingresourcesforsolvinginnereconomicalandsocialproblems.Andtheyreallyarehuge.Heisgoingtofight
therealenemythatisinsideAmerica,notanimaginableonewhoisoutside.ThisenemyisthemodernAmericanpolitical
andfinancialWallStreetelitethathashijackedAmerica,whichhasdeprivedtheAmericanpeopleofitscountry.Thatis
whytodaysomeRepublicans-primarilyneocons-supportHilaryandnotTrump.Theyfeeltheirendisapproaching.So
ifTrumpwins,Americawillbesaved,notasanimperialisthegemony,butasanationalcountry.AmericanAmerica.
DonaldTrumpsAmericacanbeafriend,anallyor,atleastanindifferentpowerthatconcentratesonitselfandmindsits
ownbusiness.

Sowecansitbackandenjoytheshow.Bothcandidatesaregoodforus-fortheworld,forhumanity.Hilarywilldestroy
America,Trumpwillsaveher.ButtheAmericancenturyismanifestlyincleardecline.Theendisnigh.Andthatisa
refreshingthought.

Bestwishes,youhavebeenwatchingDuginsguideline.Somethingisgoingtohappen.Somethingisgoingtochange.So
goahead.Inbothofthemwetrust.
SentfrommyiPad
 From: YourResponseNeeded(viaTurnoutPAC.org)<admin@turnoutpac.org>
Senttime: 04/27/201610:50:55AM
To: robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: doyouthinkBerniecanstillwin?

HillaryClintonhadaYUUGEnightlastnight,winning4statesandbuildingherlead
indelegates.Butevenso,BernieSandershasbeencatchingupinnationalpollsand
hisvictoryinRhodeIslandsuggeststhisraceisntoveryet.

DoyouthinkBerniecanstillwintheDemocraticNomination?Take
ourone-clickpoll:

RESPONDENT:ROBERTOTTO25@GMAIL.COM

DoyouthinkBernieSanderscanstill
wintheDemocraticnomination?

YES NO

Unsure?Clickhere.

Wevealreadyreceivedhugelevelsofinputfromoursupportersonthisissue.But
sinceHillarysbigwininNewYork,optimismforBernieschanceshasdipped
considerably.

However,asofnow,theracebetweenBernieandHillaryseemspoisedtocontinue
untilthelaststatesvoteinJune.California,thestatewiththemostdelegates,
doesntevenvoteuntilJune7th.

Soaswepreparetolaunchourvoterturnoutoperationsinthemostcompetitive
districtsinthecountry,understandinghowoursupportersfeelaboutthecurrent
stateoftheracehelpsusoptimizeourturnouttactics.

BernieandHillaryarerunningoutoftime.PleasetakeourInstant
Pollassoonaspossible.Thanks!

http://go.turnoutpac.org/Bernie

Unitedforprogress,

-TheProgressiveTurnoutProject


ProgressiveTurnoutProject
P.O.Box215
Northbrook,IL60065-0215

PaidforbytheProgressiveTurnoutProjectandnotauthorizedbyanycandidateor
candidate'scommittee.

Thismessagewassentto:robertotto25@gmail.com|Changeorupdateyouremailaddressbyclickinghere.
TheProgressiveTurnoutProjectisproudlydedicatedtodoingwhatwedobest--connectingwithvotersoneononeandgetting
Democratstothepolls.Tolearnmoreclickhere.
Emailsareacrucialwaytostayintouchwithourtopsupporters.Ifwe'regoingtoincreaseturnoutin2016,weneedyouwithus
everystepoftheway.
Ifyou'dstillliketounsubscribefromouremails,clickhere.Ifyou'dliketoreceivefeweremails,youcanclickhere.Ifyou'dliketo
donatetohelpfundoureffortstoincreaseDemocraticandProgressiveturnoutinthe2016Election,pleaseclickhere.
 From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 04/19/201608:40:32AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: FW:"Ukraine'sPOROSHENKOhintsatdealwithRussiatoswappilotSAVCHENKO,"reuters.com,4/19

From:JohnBDunlop
Sent:Tuesday,April19,20168:40AM
To:howard@jamestown.org
Cc:paul.goble@gmail.com'waz2102@caa.columbia.edu'
Subject:"Ukraine'sPOROSHENKOhintsatdealwithRussiatoswappilotSAVCHENKO,"reuters.com,4/19

And:SavchenkoagreestostopHUNGERSTRIKEPoroshenko,unian.info,4/19

And:ElectionsPutinstyle:Russianelectionwatchdog[GOLOS}finedaspartofintimidation
campaign,themoscowtimes.com,4/19

AMoscowcitycourthasfinedelectionmonitoringgroupGolos$18,000forfailingtoidentifyitselfas
aforeignagentonitswebsite.

And:MoscowpreparestoDOUBLEthesizeofRussiaslistofbannedundesirableorganizations,
meduza.io,4/18

Newundesirableorganizations:WorldCongressofUkrainians,theGlobalUkrainianCouncil,the
CrimeanHumanRightsFieldMission,andtheInternationalREPUBLICANInstitute(IRI)

And:DontwakeupBarvikha:theearlyelectionsinaMoscowProvincevillageareatestforthe
[new]chairwomanoftheCentralElectionsCommissionEllaPAMFILOVAfivemembersofNavalnyis
partyarerunningascandidatestobeelectedmunicipaldeputiesinBarvikha,atownof6,000:
http://www.novayagazeta.ru/politics/72745.html?print=1

And:TheblackandwhitewordofAleksandrBASTRYKIN[onhisKommersantVlastmanifesto],
http://wwwsvoboda.org/articleprintview/27682162.html

And:TherulesforlivingfromBASTRYKIN:Ifthesilovikiaregrantedtheirwish,thentheentiresocial
system[ofRussia]willbeconstructedinaccordwiththeirCORPORATEINTERESTS,
http://www.rosbalt.ru/federal/2016/;04/18/1507604.html

And:PESKOVreportedthatPutinhasnothadtimetofamiliarizehimselfwithBATRYKINsarticle,
http://www.newsru.com/russia/19apr2016/bastrykin_print.html

And:RussianswantTRUMP:PollshowsRussianswantTrumptowinUSpresidentialelection,
themoscowtimes.com,4/19

ThirtyonepercentofRussiansgaveTrumptheirfirstpreference.His[likely]opponent,Hillary
Clinton,gainedthesupportofamere10percentofRussianvoters.

 From: ChrisBort<chris.bort@gmail.com>
Senttime: 04/17/201605:00:45PM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Re:ButIloveRussia,andIloveRussians.FormerUSAmbassadortoRussiaMichaelMcFaulspeakstoMeduzaMeduza.News,reports,
Subject:
interviews,videosfromRussia

Mikeusesthefirstpersonsingularaninordinatenumberoftimes.

SentfrommyiPhone

OnApr17,2016,at11:53AM,RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>wrote:

http://meduza.io/en/feature/2016/04/16/but-i-love-russia-and-i-love-russians

ButIloveRussia,andIloveRussians.
FormerUSAmbassadortoRussiaMichael
McFaulspeakstoMeduzaMeduza.News,
reports,interviews,videosfromRussia
Thepasttwoweeks,travelingbetweenuniversitiesintheUS,I'veheardroughly
thesamethingeverywhere:there'sanenormousproblemwithAmerican
specialistsonRussia.Theleadingexpertsarethestill-livingSovietologistswho
suddenlyfindthemselvesneededagain.Doyoufindthistobethecase?

It'smorecomplexthanthat.There'sgoodandthere'sbad.Ontheonehand,in
academia,aftertheendoftheColdWar,therewasarenaissanceinthestudyof
Russia,becauseforthefirsttimeeveryoucouldstudyRussialikeanormalcountry.
Youcouldgothere.Youcouldtalktopeople.Youcoulddosurveydataonpublic
opinion.Youcouldwriteaboutelections.Iwrotemanyarticlesandonebookabout
Russianelections,whereweusedthesamemethodsthatweusetostudyAmerican
elections.

AndIwouldsaythatperiodwasagreatgrowthtimeforacademicsinterestedin
Russia,andthat'smygeneration(peopleyoungerthantheCold-Wargeneration,but
notthenewgenerationsomewhereinbetween).

Butthentwoorthreethingshappenedthathavecreatedthisproblem,orthiscrisis[in
thefieldofRussianstudies].Oneisthat,inAmericansocialsciences(economics,
politicalscienceI'minthedepartmentofpoliticalsciencehere[atStanford]),there's
atrendawayfromstudyingonecountry.Soifyoulookatthesuperstarsinpolitical
scienceinAmerica,they'renotspecialistsonRussiaorChinaorCanadaorFrance
they'respecialistsongeneraltrends:therelationshipbetweendemocracyand
development,andsoon.Theyusestatisticaldatatocomparelotsofcountries.Atmy
departmenthereatStanford,too,thesescholarsarethestars.

That'swherethetrendsareforpoliticalscience:they'renotforpeoplethatknow
individualcountries,likeme.So,ifyoulookaroundthemajoruniversitiesinAmerica,
you'llfindfewerandfewerRussiaspecialists,andthatmeanswedon'tteachgraduate
studentsorMaster'sstudentsorundergraduatesaboutRussia.Weteachthemabout
moregeneraltrends.Andthathasledtoafallingoffofstudentsespeciallyyoung,
PhDstudentswhothenbecomeprofessorswhotrytokeepRussianstudiesalive.

Oneotherthingthathashappenedwhatisanothertrendisthatthere'sbeenan
explosionofthinktanksinWashington.YouprobablynoticedtheminWashington,
right?

Yes,they'reeverywhere.

They'reeverywhere!

ThegoodnewsaboutthatisthattherearespecialistsonRussiawhocangetjobsin
thosethinktanks,whocouldnevergetajobinauniversity.Thebadnews,inmy
opinion,isthatthere'snotmuchqualitycontrol.Anybodycansay,I'maRussia
specialist,andthenappearonTV,andwriteablog.There'snodifferencebetweena
professoratHarvardandadirectorofathinktankinWashingtoninthenoisethatis
theexperts.

AndIknowmycolleaguesinacademia.Yousee,I'mveryrare.Igobackandforth.
Therearen'tmanypeoplewhowereingovernmentandalsopoliticalscience
professors.Thereareveryfewofus(likethreeorfourinthewholecountry).Ithink
that'sledtoadeteriorationofanalysisofRussia.

Thegoodnewsisthatpeoplecanadapt,andinstitutescanadapt.Istartedaprogram
on[Russia]recently,andjustlikethat[snapsfingers]wehadlotsofstudentinterestin
thingsrelatedtoRussiaandEurope.Ithinkit'sincumbentonpeoplelikemetohelp
bringRussianstudiesbacktotheuniversity.BecauseImyselfhavenottaughta
courseonRussiafor15years.Ihaven'tevenbeenteachingaboutRussiaI'vebeen
teachingaboutdemocratization,USforeignpolicy,democracydevelopment,andrule
oflaw.ThosearethecoursesI'vebeenteaching.I'vedecidedthatnextyearI'mgoing
togobacktoteachingRussia.

Butyou'reinStanfordandallthesethinktanksareinWashington,DC.And
they'retherebecausetheywanttoinfluencepolicy.

That'sright.
 PresidentDmitryMedvedevduringhisvisittotheUSin2010.

Photo:DmitryAstakhov/TASS/Scanpix

I'vebeentoldthatnobodyintheUnitedStatesisterriblyinterestedingetting
involvedwithRussia,butit'stheoppositewithChinaandtheMiddleEast.
TherewillalwaysbebusinesstodowithChina,andtheMiddleEastwillalways
beamess.ButwhenitcomestoRussia,youcan'talwaysdobusiness,andit's
notawfulenoughallthetimetoguaranteeafuture,intermsofacareer.

Ithinkthat'strue.Tome,it'stragic.Tome,ifyougobackjustseveralyears,when
therewerenewopportunities,andtherewasapushtohavemorecontactwithRussia.
PresidentMedvedevcametoStanford.Hespokeherein2010,andwasgreetedby
thousandsofpeople.Hemetwithourstudents,anditfeltlikethiswasgoingtobe
something.TherewasSiliconValley,andtherewerecompaniesinRussia.Lotsof
activity.

Andnowthere'slotsofuncertainty,intermsofcareerpaths.You'reright.Andsonow
theonlycareerpathwithguaranteedjobsecurityisintheUSgovernment,butthose
jobsarenotinteresting,unlessyougetinatthehighestlevels.AtaplacelikeStanford,
andthisisoneofthemostprestigiousuniversitiesinthecountryrightnow,whywould
youdoallthat,whenyoucanjustwalkdownthestreetandgoworkforGoogle?So
we'recompetingtogetthosepeopleinterestedinRussia-relatedjobs.It'saproblem.

ButrightnowtheprobleminUS-Russianrelationsisn'taboutwhathappensin
theyearstocome,butwhathappensrightnow.DoestheUSgovernmenthavea
problemtodayfindingqualifiedareaexperts?

I'dsaytwothings:oneisthat,despitealltheproblems,inmyopinion(andI'mavery
biasedpersonhereIworkedforsevenyearsforObama,twointhecampaignand
fiveinthegovernment)...Itwasmyview,whenIwasinthegovernment,that,inthe
seniorpositionsdealingwithRussia,wehadtremendousexpertise.

OveratthePentagon,wehadCelesteWallander,whonowworksforthepresidentat
theWhiteHouse.(She'saformerHarvardprofessor.)AttheStateDepartment,atmy
level,wehadalotofstrongpeople.WhenIworkedattheembassy,myseniorstaff
(keywordsenior)werefirstrate.Mypoliticalofficer,forinstance,wasaguy
namedHowardSolomon.(HeworksinLithuanianow.)HeknowsmoreaboutRussia
thananybodyintheUSknew20yearsagoor30yearsago.

Buthere'stheproblem:it'sthin,anditcaneasilychange.Andwe'vegotelections
comingup.

Andwhatabouttheelections?WillUS-RussianrelationschangewithanewUS
president?IsRussiaanissueatallintheUSpresidentialelection?

IsRussiaatheme?Atalowlevel,yes.Anditwillbecomeabiggertheme,ifit's
ClintonversusTrump,becauseTrumphassaidsomevery...uniquethingsaboutUS-
Russianrelations.Andhe'ssaidsomeveryuniquethingsaboutourrelationshipwith
ouralliesinEuropethatwillcreateadebate.

He'ssaiduniquethingsaboutnearlyeverything,itseems...

Yes.I'mtryingtobediplomatic!I'madiplomat!

Infulldisclosure,IamaninformaladvisortoSecretaryClinton.She'sanotherofmy
oldbosses.Wejusthostedher[atStanford]lastweek.Ihaveaprettygoodsenseof
herpositionsonRussiainfact,averygoodsense.Bytheway,afterIintroduced
her,shesaidthankyouandsoon,andthenImentionedsomethingaboutourlasttrip
together,whichwastoVladivostok.Andshesaid,makingeveryonelaugh,What
happensinVladivostok,staysinVladivostok.

BecauseofTrump'spositions,you'regoingtohaveadebateabouthowtodealwith
Putin.You'regoingtohaveadebateabouttheNATOalliance.Andyou'regoingto
haveadebateaboutUkraine.Traditionally,foreignpolicyisn'timportantatallin
Americanpolitics.Whenitis,it'susuallynotaboutRussia.But,asitwasin2008,
whenIworkedonthatcampaignwithPresidentObama,whenthere'sabigeventin
Russia...Backthen,itwastheRussian-Georgianwar.Thistime,itwillbeRussian
interventioninUkraine.ThereisagroupofvotersinAmericawhocarealotabout
Russianpolicy.TherearepeopleofEastEuropeandescent:Latvians,Lithuanians,
Poles.

Howmanypeoplearewetalkingabout?

Itdependsonwhichstate.RememberourElectoralCollegeiseverything.Butthey
tendtobeconcentratedinwhatwecallswingstatesinstatesthatsometimesgo
DemocraticandsometimesgoRepublican.So,Pennsylvania,Wisconsin,Michigan,
Florida.Floridaisabigswingstate,andtherearetensofthousandsofPolish-
AmericansinFlorida.

AndtheycareaboutRussia?

AndtheycarealotaboutRussia(inthewaysthatyouwouldguess).Andthereare
lotsofUkrainian-AmericansinPennsylvania,forinstance.Forthosegroups,thisis
goingtobeanissuewhereTrumpversusClintonisastarkcontrast,ifit'sthosetwo.
Andthiscouldhaveaninfluenceontheelection.
SoRussiabecomesmoreofanissueinaracebetweenthesetwocandidates?

Correct.Butnotuntilthen.It'stooearlynow.

<YQN2gW0uSLOE2Z_j_5lgSw.jpg>

HillaryClintonandMichaelMcFaul.March2016.

Photo:CarolynKaster/AP/Scanpix

WhendiscussingRussiatodayintheUnitedStates,howpossibleisittoavoid
theterminologyoftheColdWar?Itseemsdangerouswhentwocountriescan
onlytalkabouteachotherasenemies...

Asyoumightimagine,IgivealotoftalksonRussia,alloverthecountry.Aboutonce
everytwoweeks,I'mgivingamajortalk.AndI'dsayacoupleofthings.One,there's
abiginterestinRussia.I'msometimesspeakingto800peopleinstateslikeMontana.
EighthundredpeoplecametomytalkaboutRussiainMontana.Iwasinnorthern
Floridasixmonthsago.NinehundredpeopleshowedupforatalkonRussia.WhatI
meantosayisthatthereisinterestinthistopic.

Thesewerejustregularpeoplewhocametolistentoyou?

Yes,justregularpeople.Notexperts.

IalsoworkforanewsagencycalledNBCNews,soIcantelltheebbandflowofthe
newsinterestbywhentheyaskmetobeonTV.AndIwouldsaythatyourgeneral
thesisisabsolutelyright.There'saverysimplifiedstorythatgoesbacktotheCold
War.Mostpeoplefocusonitsoutcome,andwhenIgivemytalksI'veseenthis.

Butthere'sabiggerdebateaboutwho'satfault.AndIthinkyou'dbesurprised
especiallyatuniversitycampusesthatthequestionismorecontestedamongelites,
especiallyliberalelitesinAmerica.Andthat'sfine.Ihavemyownverystrongviews
onthat,personally.AndI'mactuallywritingabookaboutit,soIhavemyown
argument.

ButthebiggestmessageIalwayshave,inallofmyspeechesandwhenI'monTV,as
well,istofightthestereotypesaboutRussiaandRussians.ThefirstthingIsayisthat
you'renotallowedinmyclassormylecturestosaythingslike,Russiathinksthisor
Russiathinksweshould...I'venevermetMr.Russia.HaveyoumetMr.Russia?
I'venevermetthatguy,oraMs.Russia.[Laughs.]

There'snooneviewinRussia.Theremaybemorepopularviews,butit'samuch
morecomplexsocietythanIwouldsaymoreAmericansandEuropeansunderstand.
It'smuchmorenuanced.AndeventhewaytheregimeMr.Putinandhisregime
dealswithsocietyismuchmorecomplex.[Justlookat]howtheydealwithyou
[Meduza]!MostAmericansareshockedthatMeduzaexists.Andthatyou'renot
arrestedwhenyouflytoMoscow.

Yes,I'veheardthismanytimesfromAmericans.

Sothat'sinteresting,right?ThatmeansRussiaisnotexactlylikepeoplethinkitis.

AndwhatarethechancesofimprovingrelationsbetweenRussiaandtheUS?It
seemslikebothpresidentshavegivenupononeanother.

I'dsaythreethings.Theconflictsarereal.Andthey'renotjustbasedonpersonality
differencesbetweenPutinandObama,orsomethinglikethat.It'sbecauseit'saview
sharedbyeveryoneintheObamaadministrationandmostAmericanforeignpolicy
elitesthatRussiaannexedterritoryinUkraineandthenfomentedthisproxywar[in
theDonbas],andthatviolatestherulesoftheinternationalsystem.

I'vemetlotsofRussianswhosay,Canwejustgetoverthis,andgetbacktodoing
business?Andthatfundamentalconflictwillnotgoawayanytimesoon,inmy
opinion.

ThesecondthingI'dsayisthatI'veworkedwithPutin,I'vebeeninmanymeetings
withPutin,andhefundamentallythinksoftheUnitedStatesasacompetitorandan
enemy.That'snotgoingtochange.He'shadthatviewforalongtime.Ifirstmethim
in1991.

1991?Andhewassayingthesamething?

Well,Ididn'tknowhimaswellthen.Letmejustspeakabouthimaspresident.I've
seenhimtalkwithObamaabouttheseissues,andhe'sgotthatviewandthat'snot
goingtochange.

Imethimactuallythrough[formerSt.PetersburgMayorAnatoly]Sobchak.Itwasa
programIwasdoingwithSobchak,andPutinwasinchargeofforeigncontactsfor
Sobchak.

<jiOXMMBhRd33nHcjH_vuzQ.jpg>

VladimirPutinandAnatolySobchakin1993.

Photo:MikhailRazuvaev/Kommersant

DoyourememberanythingaboutPutinspecificallyfromthisperiod?

Notmuch.Hedidn'tmakeabigimpression.Hisdeputymadeabiggerimpressionon
me.IgorSechin.ImetSechinbackthen,too.Hewasveryfriendly.Hewasoneof
thefirstguysImetwhoopenlytoldmethattheyworkedforSovietintelligencethis
wasstillintheSovietUnion.(Thiswasin1991beforethecollapse.)Igottoknow
him[Sechin]prettywell.WebothspeakPortuguese.

YoutalkedinPortuguese?

Alittlebit.ButtherearetwomorethingsIwanttosay:oneisthatwecanagreeto
disagreeononesetofissues,andcooperateinasmallerspaceonotherissues.AndI
thinkthat'swhatObamaisdoing.Andthat'swhatthenextpresidentshoulddo,but
withnoillusionsthatcooperationinSyriaisgoingtoleadtoanotherReset.Ithink
that'snaive,andthat'snotgoingtohappen.IwastheauthoroftheReset.I'mto
blame.

Whyareyoutoblame?

Imeanthatmanycriticsblameme,sayingweweretheoneswhodidthis[attempted
theReset],anditwasamistake.Idon'tagreewiththis.I'mwritingabookrightnow
abouthowwewererighttohavedonewhatwedid.It'scalledTheReset.

ThelastthingI'llsayisthat,evenwhenthereisdisagreementabouttheseotherthings,
wecannotisolateRussians.I'mnotsayingRussia[thecountry]I'msayingRussians
[thepeople].Tome,that'snotgoodforourinterests.Idon'tthinkit'sgoodfor
Russia'sinterests,andsowehavetomakesurethatwetrytokeepbordersopen,
keepuniversitiesopen,andkeepexchangesgoing...

Butisn'tthereadangerthatyouisolateRussianswhenyouisolateRussia?
Technically,ourowngovernmentisisolatingus,butit'sinresponsetoRussia's
internationalisolation.

AndweneedtomakesurethatRussiansunderstandthatit'stheirgovernmentdoing
that,notus.Ihavenoproblemwithyouatallcriticizingmypresident.Knockyourself
out.I'vehearditall.Iusedtobetheambassador,right?

Butwhatyoucan'tdoissay,BecauseyourpresidentwassuchanidiotonSyria,I'm
notgoingtogotoStanford.That'scrazy.It'scrazy.Justlikeforme,Iwasvery
criticaloflotsofpoliciesthatthePutingovernmentdid,butIloveRussia.AndIlove
Russians.Andyoucan'tmakemeouttobeanti-RussianjustbecauseofwhatIsaid
aboutSyria.Andthat'sthethingthatIthinkwehavetofightagainst.

ButdoyouthinktheUSgovernmentshouldworktoisolateRussiafromthe
world?TheRussiathat'sresponsibleforannexingCrimea?

Notisolate,butthereneedtobeconsequencesforbadbehavior.So,whenRussia
annexedCrimea,Ithinkitwas100percentrighttodosanctions.Ifsanctionsare
isolatingRussiangovernmentofficials,welltheyshouldthinkaboutthatthenexttime
theythinkaboutannexingterritory.And,bytheway,theyare!Ithinksanctionshave
beenincrediblyeffective.Absolutely.

RegardingCrimea,theUShasstatedthatannexingpartofanothercountrywill
resultinconsequences.ButMoscowrespondsthatRussiaisn'ttheonlystate
thatchangestheruleshere,andtheKremlinpoints,ofcourse,toIraqand
America'scampaignthere.ButtherewerenosanctionsagainsttheUSorits
coalition.HowshouldtheUnitedStateshandlethisperceptioninRussia?

Iwouldsaytwothings.OneisthattheUnitedStatesactuallypaidaterriblepricefor
invadingIraq.ThousandsofAmericansdied,tensofthousandsofIraqisdied,we
spentalotofmoneythere,andweachievedverylittleresults.Andwealienatedlots
ofouralliesduringthattime.Wereformaleconomicsanctionsputinplaceagainstus?
No.Butdidwepayaterriblepriceforthat?Myanswerisyes.

ThesecondthingIwouldsayisthatwehavethisphraseinEnglish:twowrongsdon't
makearight.Soifyoustealmybicycletoday,doesthatgivemearighttostealyour
bicycletomorrow?That'sastrangelogic.Right?IfyouthoughtIraqwaswrong,then
youshouldthinkthesekindsofunilateralusesofforcearealsowrong.Ifyouthink
Krymnash[Crimeaisours]wasright,thenyouhavetosay,Oh,well,theIraq
warthatwasfine.Butpeopledon'tsaythat.Theysay,Okay,wellwhatabout....
It'scalledwhataboutism.WellwhataboutIraq?WellwhataboutSyria?Whatabout
thisandwhataboutthat?

Mypointisthattwowrongsdon'tmakearight.IfyouwereforthewarinIraq,or
you'reforSyria,orforKosovo,andmoredirectlytoRussia(becausethose
analogiesarealittlebitfalse,inmyview)the[analogy]that'sclosesttoRussiaisif
youwereforChechenindependence.People[there]wantedindependence.Ifyou
wereforChechenindependence,thenIcanunderstandyourenthusiasmforCrimea
joining.ButifyouwereagainstChechenindependence,eventhoughthemajorityof
thepeoplewantedtoleave[theRussianFederation],youcan'tbeforannexation.
That'sjustlogicallyinconsistent.

I'vespentagreatdealoftimelookingatPutin'sspeeches.Idoitforaliving,butI
meanaboutCrimea[specifically].Idon'trememberaspeechbefore2014whereMr.
Putinsaidit'sagreatinjusticethatKhrushchevgaveawayCrimea,andWeneedthis
back.AndIcan'trecallaspeechwherehesaid,Doyouknowthattheethnic
RussiansinCrimeaarebeingdiscriminatedagainst?They'rebeingkilled.It'svery
unstableandveryuncertainthere,andwehavetodefendthem.Ifsomebodyhad
saidthatbefore2014,thatwouldbealittlemoreinteresting.Butthefactthatit'sall
saidafterwardssuggeststomethatthisisreallyaboutwhathappenedinMaidan,and
notaboutCrimea.

WhataboutRussiaafterPutin?It'shardtoimagineanyfutureRussian
presidentwhowouldgiveCrimeaback.Itwouldbepoliticalsuicide.Sohow
doestheWestandtheUSdealwiththenextRussianpresident,evenifhe's
democraticandmuchbetter?

Idon'tknowtheanswertothatquestion.

Butthisistherealityinfiveortenyears.

MypredictionisthatitwillbethepolicyoftheUnitedStates,whetherit'saDemocrat
orRepublicanpresident,fordecadestocome,toneverrecognizetheannexationof
Crimea.Toholdontothefalseillusionthatthat[position]mightchangewouldbe
misguidedpolicy.

Atthesametime,Icanimagineascenariowhereprogressonotherfrontswouldlead
to...iftherewereatrue,democratizingmomentinRussia,thatthatwouldbe
embraced.WhatIworryaboutisthatwewon'trecognizethosemomentsbecause
there'ssuchlittlefaithinAmericarightnowthattherecanbepositivechangeinRussia
atall.Iworryaboutthis.Iworryaboutisolationism.

Iworryaboutpeoplejustcheckingoutandjustthinkingthatthere'snothinggoodthat
canbedonethere.Let'sjuststopthinkingaboutRussia.That,tome,isthereal
tendencyrightnow.It'snotconfrontation.Sometimes,whenIspeaktoRussians,they
thinkthatAmericansgetupeverymorningandallwedoisthinkaboutChtodelat's
Rossiei?(WhatdowedowithRussia?)Thatwewonderwhatshouldwedoto
weakenRussia?That'swhatIworryabout.Iworryaboutindifference.Iworry
aboutpeoplenotcaring,thinkingRussiadoesn'tmatter.

Russiaisisolatingitself.Lookatittoday.Wejusthadalmosteverymajorleaderon
theplanetinWashington[forthefourthNuclearSecuritySummit].Putin'snotthere.
Hedecidednottocome.IworrythatpeoplewillbegintothinkaboutRussiaasnot
beingevenimportanttoengage.AndthatwouldbeatragedyforRussiaandatragedy
fortheUnitedStates.

So,ontheonehand,wehaveRussiaignoringimportantinternationalmeetings,
andontheotherhandwehaveSyria,whereMoscowhasmadeitabundantly
clearthatthiscampaignwaspartofbringingRussiabacktoglobalpolitics.
Whytheparadox?

Ithinkthat'sthewrongwaytothinkofSyria.That'swhatthegovernmentsells,right?
ButIhaveadifferentview.IthinkPutinhasbeenquitesuccessfulinhispolicyin
Syria.Ithinkweshouldacknowledgethatthatheachievedhisobjective.Andhis
objectivewastostrengthenAssad,andhe'sdonethat.Hisobjectivewasnottodefeat
ISIS,despitewhateverpropagandahasbeensaid.It'sasclearasdaythatthatwasnot
hisobjective.MostoftheattackswerenotagainstISIStheywereagainstother
groupsthere.Butweshouldgivehimcreditthatheachievedhisobjective.
 2016NuclearSecuritySummitinWashington,DC.

Photo:SeanKilpatrick/TheCanadianPress/PAImages/Scanpix

Butisn'tAssadfightingISIS,too?

IntermsoffightingISIS,theUnitedStatesandthecoalitionarefightingISISalot
morethanMr.Assad.Now,don'tgetmewrong:it'sveryrational.Ithinkit'sasmart
policytosaynowthatAssadneedstobepartofthenegotiations,sowecanhavea
coalitiongovernmenttodealwithISIS.That's[Russia's]strategy.Butnobody(atleast
amongthepeopleIknow,whoaredealingwiththeRussians,andIknowmany
people)isthinking,Oh!Isn'titgreatthatRussiaisnowagreatactorinthewar!It's
morelikeRussiaputaguntoourheadandthey'veachievedthisresult,andwehave
todealwiththem.

Soyou'renotcomingintotheinternationalcommunityonSyriaasarespectedpartner
Putiniscominginasanecessarypartner.It'sastrategy.Igetit.Youcanbeatough
guy.Bulliesgetalotofattention.Toughguysgetalotofattention,butitdoesn'tmean
reintegration.Idon'tthinkanybodyhaschangedtheirviewsaboutMr.Putinasa
resultofSyria.

SotheUS-ledcoalitionisactuallybombingISIS,butpartofthiscoalitionis
Turkey,whichweknowhasbombedtheKurds.Erdoanisatoughguy,too.
He'sabully,too.SowhyishepartofAmerica'scoalition?

Erdoanisverycomplicated.You'reexactlyright.Ontheonehand,wehavesimilar
objectives.Youknow:theenemyofmyenemyismyfriend.Butonsomevery
particularissues,wehaveradicaldifferenceswithMr.Erdoan.Hejustsaidthatinhis
speechyesterdayinWashingtonabouthowwetotallydisagreeabouttheroleofthe
KurdsinSyria.

AndTurkeyhasanopenborderwithISIS.

Butit'sanillustrationofmypoint:thebullythatisErdoanwehavetodealwithhim
becauseofthenatureofthecrisis.Butnobodyisrespectinghimforwhatheisdoing.
HejustcametoWashingtonandthepresidentoftheUnitedStatesdidn'tevenmeet
withhim.

You'vepointedoutthetensionbetweenhavingcommoninterestsbutmaybenot
commonvalues.Andthathappensalotindiplomacy.

RussiansoldiersatPalmyra,Syria.April2016.

Photo:ValerySharifulin/TASS/Scanpix

Soyou'velaidoutaverypragmaticpositionregardingTurkey.WiththeUSand
othercountries,itseemstherearetwogeneralstrategies:thepolicyof
pragmatism,whereyoucooperatewithnationswhenit'sinyourcurrent
interests,andthepolicyofwe'respreadingdemocracythroughouttheworld.
Howdoyoureconcilethesetwostrategies?

Iwouldsayafewthings.Firstofall,itistruethattheUnitedStates,overourhistory,
fromtheverybeginning,hashadalliesthatareautocraticregimes.Ourfirst
remember,goingallthewaybacktothebeginningoftheAmericanRepublicour
mostimportantallywasFrance,amonarchyandadictatorship.Theyarethereason
whywe'refree.WithouttheFrench,wewouldhavelostthewaragainsttheBritish.
And,justsoyouknow,ifyougobackandyoulookatthathistory,thentherewasthe
FrenchRevolution,andtherewasadebateinWashingtonaboutwhetherwesupport
ouralliesandourinterestsorthesepeoplewhowanteddemocracy.Sothetension
goesallthewaybacktothebeginning.

ThesecondthingIwouldsayisthatourmostenduringallieshavealwaysbeen
democracies.IfyouthinkaboutAmerica'sclosestpartnersintheworld,they're
democracies.Alloftheautocracieswithwhichwe'vehadalliancerelationshipshave
alwaysbeentense.Andtheyonlybecomestablewhenthosecountriesmake
transitions.Throughoutourhistory.

Andthere'ssomethingI'vewrittenaboutcalledthefalsepromiseofautocratic
stability,whichistosaythatautocraciescanbeouralliesbutthey'reneverourlong-
termalliesbecauseautocracieshavetheproblemofremaininginpower.SoIranwas
anincrediblycloseallyoftheUnitedStatesfordecadesundertheShah.Andthen,
oneyear,theybecameourworstenemy.Thatonlyhappensinautocracies.Itdoesn't
happenwithdemocraticalliances.

ThefourththingIwouldsayaboutthistensionyou'vehighlightedisthatit'sreal.
There'snosolution.Ourcriticssay,Wellyouneedtobepure,onewayortheother.
AndIwouldjustsaythat,[with]alladministrations(Obama,Bush,Clinton,andall
thewaybacktotheFrenchRevolution),thisisatensionbetweeninterestsandvalues.
Thewaypresidentsresolveitistheysaywehaveshort-termintereststhatwehaveto
pursue,andwealsoneedtopursueourlong-termvaluesourlong-terminterestin
supportingvalues.AndIagreewiththat.Ithinkthat'ssmart.WhatIthinkisnotsmart
istheuseofmilitaryforcetopromotedemocracy.Itjustdoesn'twork.Itneverhas.
Andweshouldgetoutofthatbusiness.
 From: ChrisBort<chris.bort@gmail.com>
Senttime: 04/17/201605:00:45PM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Re:ButIloveRussia,andIloveRussians.FormerUSAmbassadortoRussiaMichaelMcFaulspeakstoMeduzaMeduza.News,reports,
Subject:
interviews,videosfromRussia

Mikeusesthefirstpersonsingularaninordinatenumberoftimes.

SentfrommyiPhone

OnApr17,2016,at11:53AM,RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>wrote:

http://meduza.io/en/feature/2016/04/16/but-i-love-russia-and-i-love-russians

ButIloveRussia,andIloveRussians.
FormerUSAmbassadortoRussiaMichael
McFaulspeakstoMeduzaMeduza.News,
reports,interviews,videosfromRussia
Thepasttwoweeks,travelingbetweenuniversitiesintheUS,I'veheardroughly
thesamethingeverywhere:there'sanenormousproblemwithAmerican
specialistsonRussia.Theleadingexpertsarethestill-livingSovietologistswho
suddenlyfindthemselvesneededagain.Doyoufindthistobethecase?

It'smorecomplexthanthat.There'sgoodandthere'sbad.Ontheonehand,in
academia,aftertheendoftheColdWar,therewasarenaissanceinthestudyof
Russia,becauseforthefirsttimeeveryoucouldstudyRussialikeanormalcountry.
Youcouldgothere.Youcouldtalktopeople.Youcoulddosurveydataonpublic
opinion.Youcouldwriteaboutelections.Iwrotemanyarticlesandonebookabout
Russianelections,whereweusedthesamemethodsthatweusetostudyAmerican
elections.

AndIwouldsaythatperiodwasagreatgrowthtimeforacademicsinterestedin
Russia,andthat'smygeneration(peopleyoungerthantheCold-Wargeneration,but
notthenewgenerationsomewhereinbetween).

Butthentwoorthreethingshappenedthathavecreatedthisproblem,orthiscrisis[in
thefieldofRussianstudies].Oneisthat,inAmericansocialsciences(economics,
politicalscienceI'minthedepartmentofpoliticalsciencehere[atStanford]),there's
atrendawayfromstudyingonecountry.Soifyoulookatthesuperstarsinpolitical
scienceinAmerica,they'renotspecialistsonRussiaorChinaorCanadaorFrance
they'respecialistsongeneraltrends:therelationshipbetweendemocracyand
development,andsoon.Theyusestatisticaldatatocomparelotsofcountries.Atmy
departmenthereatStanford,too,thesescholarsarethestars.

That'swherethetrendsareforpoliticalscience:they'renotforpeoplethatknow
individualcountries,likeme.So,ifyoulookaroundthemajoruniversitiesinAmerica,
you'llfindfewerandfewerRussiaspecialists,andthatmeanswedon'tteachgraduate
studentsorMaster'sstudentsorundergraduatesaboutRussia.Weteachthemabout
moregeneraltrends.Andthathasledtoafallingoffofstudentsespeciallyyoung,
PhDstudentswhothenbecomeprofessorswhotrytokeepRussianstudiesalive.

Oneotherthingthathashappenedwhatisanothertrendisthatthere'sbeenan
explosionofthinktanksinWashington.YouprobablynoticedtheminWashington,
right?

Yes,they'reeverywhere.

They'reeverywhere!

ThegoodnewsaboutthatisthattherearespecialistsonRussiawhocangetjobsin
thosethinktanks,whocouldnevergetajobinauniversity.Thebadnews,inmy
opinion,isthatthere'snotmuchqualitycontrol.Anybodycansay,I'maRussia
specialist,andthenappearonTV,andwriteablog.There'snodifferencebetweena
professoratHarvardandadirectorofathinktankinWashingtoninthenoisethatis
theexperts.

AndIknowmycolleaguesinacademia.Yousee,I'mveryrare.Igobackandforth.
Therearen'tmanypeoplewhowereingovernmentandalsopoliticalscience
professors.Thereareveryfewofus(likethreeorfourinthewholecountry).Ithink
that'sledtoadeteriorationofanalysisofRussia.

Thegoodnewsisthatpeoplecanadapt,andinstitutescanadapt.Istartedaprogram
on[Russia]recently,andjustlikethat[snapsfingers]wehadlotsofstudentinterestin
thingsrelatedtoRussiaandEurope.Ithinkit'sincumbentonpeoplelikemetohelp
bringRussianstudiesbacktotheuniversity.BecauseImyselfhavenottaughta
courseonRussiafor15years.Ihaven'tevenbeenteachingaboutRussiaI'vebeen
teachingaboutdemocratization,USforeignpolicy,democracydevelopment,andrule
oflaw.ThosearethecoursesI'vebeenteaching.I'vedecidedthatnextyearI'mgoing
togobacktoteachingRussia.

Butyou'reinStanfordandallthesethinktanksareinWashington,DC.And
they'retherebecausetheywanttoinfluencepolicy.

That'sright.
 PresidentDmitryMedvedevduringhisvisittotheUSin2010.

Photo:DmitryAstakhov/TASS/Scanpix

I'vebeentoldthatnobodyintheUnitedStatesisterriblyinterestedingetting
involvedwithRussia,butit'stheoppositewithChinaandtheMiddleEast.
TherewillalwaysbebusinesstodowithChina,andtheMiddleEastwillalways
beamess.ButwhenitcomestoRussia,youcan'talwaysdobusiness,andit's
notawfulenoughallthetimetoguaranteeafuture,intermsofacareer.

Ithinkthat'strue.Tome,it'stragic.Tome,ifyougobackjustseveralyears,when
therewerenewopportunities,andtherewasapushtohavemorecontactwithRussia.
PresidentMedvedevcametoStanford.Hespokeherein2010,andwasgreetedby
thousandsofpeople.Hemetwithourstudents,anditfeltlikethiswasgoingtobe
something.TherewasSiliconValley,andtherewerecompaniesinRussia.Lotsof
activity.

Andnowthere'slotsofuncertainty,intermsofcareerpaths.You'reright.Andsonow
theonlycareerpathwithguaranteedjobsecurityisintheUSgovernment,butthose
jobsarenotinteresting,unlessyougetinatthehighestlevels.AtaplacelikeStanford,
andthisisoneofthemostprestigiousuniversitiesinthecountryrightnow,whywould
youdoallthat,whenyoucanjustwalkdownthestreetandgoworkforGoogle?So
we'recompetingtogetthosepeopleinterestedinRussia-relatedjobs.It'saproblem.

ButrightnowtheprobleminUS-Russianrelationsisn'taboutwhathappensin
theyearstocome,butwhathappensrightnow.DoestheUSgovernmenthavea
problemtodayfindingqualifiedareaexperts?

I'dsaytwothings:oneisthat,despitealltheproblems,inmyopinion(andI'mavery
biasedpersonhereIworkedforsevenyearsforObama,twointhecampaignand
fiveinthegovernment)...Itwasmyview,whenIwasinthegovernment,that,inthe
seniorpositionsdealingwithRussia,wehadtremendousexpertise.

OveratthePentagon,wehadCelesteWallander,whonowworksforthepresidentat
theWhiteHouse.(She'saformerHarvardprofessor.)AttheStateDepartment,atmy
level,wehadalotofstrongpeople.WhenIworkedattheembassy,myseniorstaff
(keywordsenior)werefirstrate.Mypoliticalofficer,forinstance,wasaguy
namedHowardSolomon.(HeworksinLithuanianow.)HeknowsmoreaboutRussia
thananybodyintheUSknew20yearsagoor30yearsago.

Buthere'stheproblem:it'sthin,anditcaneasilychange.Andwe'vegotelections
comingup.

Andwhatabouttheelections?WillUS-RussianrelationschangewithanewUS
president?IsRussiaanissueatallintheUSpresidentialelection?

IsRussiaatheme?Atalowlevel,yes.Anditwillbecomeabiggertheme,ifit's
ClintonversusTrump,becauseTrumphassaidsomevery...uniquethingsaboutUS-
Russianrelations.Andhe'ssaidsomeveryuniquethingsaboutourrelationshipwith
ouralliesinEuropethatwillcreateadebate.

He'ssaiduniquethingsaboutnearlyeverything,itseems...

Yes.I'mtryingtobediplomatic!I'madiplomat!

Infulldisclosure,IamaninformaladvisortoSecretaryClinton.She'sanotherofmy
oldbosses.Wejusthostedher[atStanford]lastweek.Ihaveaprettygoodsenseof
herpositionsonRussiainfact,averygoodsense.Bytheway,afterIintroduced
her,shesaidthankyouandsoon,andthenImentionedsomethingaboutourlasttrip
together,whichwastoVladivostok.Andshesaid,makingeveryonelaugh,What
happensinVladivostok,staysinVladivostok.

BecauseofTrump'spositions,you'regoingtohaveadebateabouthowtodealwith
Putin.You'regoingtohaveadebateabouttheNATOalliance.Andyou'regoingto
haveadebateaboutUkraine.Traditionally,foreignpolicyisn'timportantatallin
Americanpolitics.Whenitis,it'susuallynotaboutRussia.But,asitwasin2008,
whenIworkedonthatcampaignwithPresidentObama,whenthere'sabigeventin
Russia...Backthen,itwastheRussian-Georgianwar.Thistime,itwillbeRussian
interventioninUkraine.ThereisagroupofvotersinAmericawhocarealotabout
Russianpolicy.TherearepeopleofEastEuropeandescent:Latvians,Lithuanians,
Poles.

Howmanypeoplearewetalkingabout?

Itdependsonwhichstate.RememberourElectoralCollegeiseverything.Butthey
tendtobeconcentratedinwhatwecallswingstatesinstatesthatsometimesgo
DemocraticandsometimesgoRepublican.So,Pennsylvania,Wisconsin,Michigan,
Florida.Floridaisabigswingstate,andtherearetensofthousandsofPolish-
AmericansinFlorida.

AndtheycareaboutRussia?

AndtheycarealotaboutRussia(inthewaysthatyouwouldguess).Andthereare
lotsofUkrainian-AmericansinPennsylvania,forinstance.Forthosegroups,thisis
goingtobeanissuewhereTrumpversusClintonisastarkcontrast,ifit'sthosetwo.
Andthiscouldhaveaninfluenceontheelection.
SoRussiabecomesmoreofanissueinaracebetweenthesetwocandidates?

Correct.Butnotuntilthen.It'stooearlynow.

<YQN2gW0uSLOE2Z_j_5lgSw.jpg>

HillaryClintonandMichaelMcFaul.March2016.

Photo:CarolynKaster/AP/Scanpix

WhendiscussingRussiatodayintheUnitedStates,howpossibleisittoavoid
theterminologyoftheColdWar?Itseemsdangerouswhentwocountriescan
onlytalkabouteachotherasenemies...

Asyoumightimagine,IgivealotoftalksonRussia,alloverthecountry.Aboutonce
everytwoweeks,I'mgivingamajortalk.AndI'dsayacoupleofthings.One,there's
abiginterestinRussia.I'msometimesspeakingto800peopleinstateslikeMontana.
EighthundredpeoplecametomytalkaboutRussiainMontana.Iwasinnorthern
Floridasixmonthsago.NinehundredpeopleshowedupforatalkonRussia.WhatI
meantosayisthatthereisinterestinthistopic.

Thesewerejustregularpeoplewhocametolistentoyou?

Yes,justregularpeople.Notexperts.

IalsoworkforanewsagencycalledNBCNews,soIcantelltheebbandflowofthe
newsinterestbywhentheyaskmetobeonTV.AndIwouldsaythatyourgeneral
thesisisabsolutelyright.There'saverysimplifiedstorythatgoesbacktotheCold
War.Mostpeoplefocusonitsoutcome,andwhenIgivemytalksI'veseenthis.

Butthere'sabiggerdebateaboutwho'satfault.AndIthinkyou'dbesurprised
especiallyatuniversitycampusesthatthequestionismorecontestedamongelites,
especiallyliberalelitesinAmerica.Andthat'sfine.Ihavemyownverystrongviews
onthat,personally.AndI'mactuallywritingabookaboutit,soIhavemyown
argument.

ButthebiggestmessageIalwayshave,inallofmyspeechesandwhenI'monTV,as
well,istofightthestereotypesaboutRussiaandRussians.ThefirstthingIsayisthat
you'renotallowedinmyclassormylecturestosaythingslike,Russiathinksthisor
Russiathinksweshould...I'venevermetMr.Russia.HaveyoumetMr.Russia?
I'venevermetthatguy,oraMs.Russia.[Laughs.]

There'snooneviewinRussia.Theremaybemorepopularviews,butit'samuch
morecomplexsocietythanIwouldsaymoreAmericansandEuropeansunderstand.
It'smuchmorenuanced.AndeventhewaytheregimeMr.Putinandhisregime
dealswithsocietyismuchmorecomplex.[Justlookat]howtheydealwithyou
[Meduza]!MostAmericansareshockedthatMeduzaexists.Andthatyou'renot
arrestedwhenyouflytoMoscow.

Yes,I'veheardthismanytimesfromAmericans.

Sothat'sinteresting,right?ThatmeansRussiaisnotexactlylikepeoplethinkitis.

AndwhatarethechancesofimprovingrelationsbetweenRussiaandtheUS?It
seemslikebothpresidentshavegivenupononeanother.

I'dsaythreethings.Theconflictsarereal.Andthey'renotjustbasedonpersonality
differencesbetweenPutinandObama,orsomethinglikethat.It'sbecauseit'saview
sharedbyeveryoneintheObamaadministrationandmostAmericanforeignpolicy
elitesthatRussiaannexedterritoryinUkraineandthenfomentedthisproxywar[in
theDonbas],andthatviolatestherulesoftheinternationalsystem.

I'vemetlotsofRussianswhosay,Canwejustgetoverthis,andgetbacktodoing
business?Andthatfundamentalconflictwillnotgoawayanytimesoon,inmy
opinion.

ThesecondthingI'dsayisthatI'veworkedwithPutin,I'vebeeninmanymeetings
withPutin,andhefundamentallythinksoftheUnitedStatesasacompetitorandan
enemy.That'snotgoingtochange.He'shadthatviewforalongtime.Ifirstmethim
in1991.

1991?Andhewassayingthesamething?

Well,Ididn'tknowhimaswellthen.Letmejustspeakabouthimaspresident.I've
seenhimtalkwithObamaabouttheseissues,andhe'sgotthatviewandthat'snot
goingtochange.

Imethimactuallythrough[formerSt.PetersburgMayorAnatoly]Sobchak.Itwasa
programIwasdoingwithSobchak,andPutinwasinchargeofforeigncontactsfor
Sobchak.

<jiOXMMBhRd33nHcjH_vuzQ.jpg>

VladimirPutinandAnatolySobchakin1993.

Photo:MikhailRazuvaev/Kommersant

DoyourememberanythingaboutPutinspecificallyfromthisperiod?

Notmuch.Hedidn'tmakeabigimpression.Hisdeputymadeabiggerimpressionon
me.IgorSechin.ImetSechinbackthen,too.Hewasveryfriendly.Hewasoneof
thefirstguysImetwhoopenlytoldmethattheyworkedforSovietintelligencethis
wasstillintheSovietUnion.(Thiswasin1991beforethecollapse.)Igottoknow
him[Sechin]prettywell.WebothspeakPortuguese.

YoutalkedinPortuguese?

Alittlebit.ButtherearetwomorethingsIwanttosay:oneisthatwecanagreeto
disagreeononesetofissues,andcooperateinasmallerspaceonotherissues.AndI
thinkthat'swhatObamaisdoing.Andthat'swhatthenextpresidentshoulddo,but
withnoillusionsthatcooperationinSyriaisgoingtoleadtoanotherReset.Ithink
that'snaive,andthat'snotgoingtohappen.IwastheauthoroftheReset.I'mto
blame.

Whyareyoutoblame?

Imeanthatmanycriticsblameme,sayingweweretheoneswhodidthis[attempted
theReset],anditwasamistake.Idon'tagreewiththis.I'mwritingabookrightnow
abouthowwewererighttohavedonewhatwedid.It'scalledTheReset.

ThelastthingI'llsayisthat,evenwhenthereisdisagreementabouttheseotherthings,
wecannotisolateRussians.I'mnotsayingRussia[thecountry]I'msayingRussians
[thepeople].Tome,that'snotgoodforourinterests.Idon'tthinkit'sgoodfor
Russia'sinterests,andsowehavetomakesurethatwetrytokeepbordersopen,
keepuniversitiesopen,andkeepexchangesgoing...

Butisn'tthereadangerthatyouisolateRussianswhenyouisolateRussia?
Technically,ourowngovernmentisisolatingus,butit'sinresponsetoRussia's
internationalisolation.

AndweneedtomakesurethatRussiansunderstandthatit'stheirgovernmentdoing
that,notus.Ihavenoproblemwithyouatallcriticizingmypresident.Knockyourself
out.I'vehearditall.Iusedtobetheambassador,right?

Butwhatyoucan'tdoissay,BecauseyourpresidentwassuchanidiotonSyria,I'm
notgoingtogotoStanford.That'scrazy.It'scrazy.Justlikeforme,Iwasvery
criticaloflotsofpoliciesthatthePutingovernmentdid,butIloveRussia.AndIlove
Russians.Andyoucan'tmakemeouttobeanti-RussianjustbecauseofwhatIsaid
aboutSyria.Andthat'sthethingthatIthinkwehavetofightagainst.

ButdoyouthinktheUSgovernmentshouldworktoisolateRussiafromthe
world?TheRussiathat'sresponsibleforannexingCrimea?

Notisolate,butthereneedtobeconsequencesforbadbehavior.So,whenRussia
annexedCrimea,Ithinkitwas100percentrighttodosanctions.Ifsanctionsare
isolatingRussiangovernmentofficials,welltheyshouldthinkaboutthatthenexttime
theythinkaboutannexingterritory.And,bytheway,theyare!Ithinksanctionshave
beenincrediblyeffective.Absolutely.

RegardingCrimea,theUShasstatedthatannexingpartofanothercountrywill
resultinconsequences.ButMoscowrespondsthatRussiaisn'ttheonlystate
thatchangestheruleshere,andtheKremlinpoints,ofcourse,toIraqand
America'scampaignthere.ButtherewerenosanctionsagainsttheUSorits
coalition.HowshouldtheUnitedStateshandlethisperceptioninRussia?

Iwouldsaytwothings.OneisthattheUnitedStatesactuallypaidaterriblepricefor
invadingIraq.ThousandsofAmericansdied,tensofthousandsofIraqisdied,we
spentalotofmoneythere,andweachievedverylittleresults.Andwealienatedlots
ofouralliesduringthattime.Wereformaleconomicsanctionsputinplaceagainstus?
No.Butdidwepayaterriblepriceforthat?Myanswerisyes.

ThesecondthingIwouldsayisthatwehavethisphraseinEnglish:twowrongsdon't
makearight.Soifyoustealmybicycletoday,doesthatgivemearighttostealyour
bicycletomorrow?That'sastrangelogic.Right?IfyouthoughtIraqwaswrong,then
youshouldthinkthesekindsofunilateralusesofforcearealsowrong.Ifyouthink
Krymnash[Crimeaisours]wasright,thenyouhavetosay,Oh,well,theIraq
warthatwasfine.Butpeopledon'tsaythat.Theysay,Okay,wellwhatabout....
It'scalledwhataboutism.WellwhataboutIraq?WellwhataboutSyria?Whatabout
thisandwhataboutthat?

Mypointisthattwowrongsdon'tmakearight.IfyouwereforthewarinIraq,or
you'reforSyria,orforKosovo,andmoredirectlytoRussia(becausethose
analogiesarealittlebitfalse,inmyview)the[analogy]that'sclosesttoRussiaisif
youwereforChechenindependence.People[there]wantedindependence.Ifyou
wereforChechenindependence,thenIcanunderstandyourenthusiasmforCrimea
joining.ButifyouwereagainstChechenindependence,eventhoughthemajorityof
thepeoplewantedtoleave[theRussianFederation],youcan'tbeforannexation.
That'sjustlogicallyinconsistent.

I'vespentagreatdealoftimelookingatPutin'sspeeches.Idoitforaliving,butI
meanaboutCrimea[specifically].Idon'trememberaspeechbefore2014whereMr.
Putinsaidit'sagreatinjusticethatKhrushchevgaveawayCrimea,andWeneedthis
back.AndIcan'trecallaspeechwherehesaid,Doyouknowthattheethnic
RussiansinCrimeaarebeingdiscriminatedagainst?They'rebeingkilled.It'svery
unstableandveryuncertainthere,andwehavetodefendthem.Ifsomebodyhad
saidthatbefore2014,thatwouldbealittlemoreinteresting.Butthefactthatit'sall
saidafterwardssuggeststomethatthisisreallyaboutwhathappenedinMaidan,and
notaboutCrimea.

WhataboutRussiaafterPutin?It'shardtoimagineanyfutureRussian
presidentwhowouldgiveCrimeaback.Itwouldbepoliticalsuicide.Sohow
doestheWestandtheUSdealwiththenextRussianpresident,evenifhe's
democraticandmuchbetter?

Idon'tknowtheanswertothatquestion.

Butthisistherealityinfiveortenyears.

MypredictionisthatitwillbethepolicyoftheUnitedStates,whetherit'saDemocrat
orRepublicanpresident,fordecadestocome,toneverrecognizetheannexationof
Crimea.Toholdontothefalseillusionthatthat[position]mightchangewouldbe
misguidedpolicy.

Atthesametime,Icanimagineascenariowhereprogressonotherfrontswouldlead
to...iftherewereatrue,democratizingmomentinRussia,thatthatwouldbe
embraced.WhatIworryaboutisthatwewon'trecognizethosemomentsbecause
there'ssuchlittlefaithinAmericarightnowthattherecanbepositivechangeinRussia
atall.Iworryaboutthis.Iworryaboutisolationism.

Iworryaboutpeoplejustcheckingoutandjustthinkingthatthere'snothinggoodthat
canbedonethere.Let'sjuststopthinkingaboutRussia.That,tome,isthereal
tendencyrightnow.It'snotconfrontation.Sometimes,whenIspeaktoRussians,they
thinkthatAmericansgetupeverymorningandallwedoisthinkaboutChtodelat's
Rossiei?(WhatdowedowithRussia?)Thatwewonderwhatshouldwedoto
weakenRussia?That'swhatIworryabout.Iworryaboutindifference.Iworry
aboutpeoplenotcaring,thinkingRussiadoesn'tmatter.

Russiaisisolatingitself.Lookatittoday.Wejusthadalmosteverymajorleaderon
theplanetinWashington[forthefourthNuclearSecuritySummit].Putin'snotthere.
Hedecidednottocome.IworrythatpeoplewillbegintothinkaboutRussiaasnot
beingevenimportanttoengage.AndthatwouldbeatragedyforRussiaandatragedy
fortheUnitedStates.

So,ontheonehand,wehaveRussiaignoringimportantinternationalmeetings,
andontheotherhandwehaveSyria,whereMoscowhasmadeitabundantly
clearthatthiscampaignwaspartofbringingRussiabacktoglobalpolitics.
Whytheparadox?

Ithinkthat'sthewrongwaytothinkofSyria.That'swhatthegovernmentsells,right?
ButIhaveadifferentview.IthinkPutinhasbeenquitesuccessfulinhispolicyin
Syria.Ithinkweshouldacknowledgethatthatheachievedhisobjective.Andhis
objectivewastostrengthenAssad,andhe'sdonethat.Hisobjectivewasnottodefeat
ISIS,despitewhateverpropagandahasbeensaid.It'sasclearasdaythatthatwasnot
hisobjective.MostoftheattackswerenotagainstISIStheywereagainstother
groupsthere.Butweshouldgivehimcreditthatheachievedhisobjective.
 2016NuclearSecuritySummitinWashington,DC.

Photo:SeanKilpatrick/TheCanadianPress/PAImages/Scanpix

Butisn'tAssadfightingISIS,too?

IntermsoffightingISIS,theUnitedStatesandthecoalitionarefightingISISalot
morethanMr.Assad.Now,don'tgetmewrong:it'sveryrational.Ithinkit'sasmart
policytosaynowthatAssadneedstobepartofthenegotiations,sowecanhavea
coalitiongovernmenttodealwithISIS.That's[Russia's]strategy.Butnobody(atleast
amongthepeopleIknow,whoaredealingwiththeRussians,andIknowmany
people)isthinking,Oh!Isn'titgreatthatRussiaisnowagreatactorinthewar!It's
morelikeRussiaputaguntoourheadandthey'veachievedthisresult,andwehave
todealwiththem.

Soyou'renotcomingintotheinternationalcommunityonSyriaasarespectedpartner
Putiniscominginasanecessarypartner.It'sastrategy.Igetit.Youcanbeatough
guy.Bulliesgetalotofattention.Toughguysgetalotofattention,butitdoesn'tmean
reintegration.Idon'tthinkanybodyhaschangedtheirviewsaboutMr.Putinasa
resultofSyria.

SotheUS-ledcoalitionisactuallybombingISIS,butpartofthiscoalitionis
Turkey,whichweknowhasbombedtheKurds.Erdoanisatoughguy,too.
He'sabully,too.SowhyishepartofAmerica'scoalition?

Erdoanisverycomplicated.You'reexactlyright.Ontheonehand,wehavesimilar
objectives.Youknow:theenemyofmyenemyismyfriend.Butonsomevery
particularissues,wehaveradicaldifferenceswithMr.Erdoan.Hejustsaidthatinhis
speechyesterdayinWashingtonabouthowwetotallydisagreeabouttheroleofthe
KurdsinSyria.

AndTurkeyhasanopenborderwithISIS.

Butit'sanillustrationofmypoint:thebullythatisErdoanwehavetodealwithhim
becauseofthenatureofthecrisis.Butnobodyisrespectinghimforwhatheisdoing.
HejustcametoWashingtonandthepresidentoftheUnitedStatesdidn'tevenmeet
withhim.

You'vepointedoutthetensionbetweenhavingcommoninterestsbutmaybenot
commonvalues.Andthathappensalotindiplomacy.

RussiansoldiersatPalmyra,Syria.April2016.

Photo:ValerySharifulin/TASS/Scanpix

Soyou'velaidoutaverypragmaticpositionregardingTurkey.WiththeUSand
othercountries,itseemstherearetwogeneralstrategies:thepolicyof
pragmatism,whereyoucooperatewithnationswhenit'sinyourcurrent
interests,andthepolicyofwe'respreadingdemocracythroughouttheworld.
Howdoyoureconcilethesetwostrategies?

Iwouldsayafewthings.Firstofall,itistruethattheUnitedStates,overourhistory,
fromtheverybeginning,hashadalliesthatareautocraticregimes.Ourfirst
remember,goingallthewaybacktothebeginningoftheAmericanRepublicour
mostimportantallywasFrance,amonarchyandadictatorship.Theyarethereason
whywe'refree.WithouttheFrench,wewouldhavelostthewaragainsttheBritish.
And,justsoyouknow,ifyougobackandyoulookatthathistory,thentherewasthe
FrenchRevolution,andtherewasadebateinWashingtonaboutwhetherwesupport
ouralliesandourinterestsorthesepeoplewhowanteddemocracy.Sothetension
goesallthewaybacktothebeginning.

ThesecondthingIwouldsayisthatourmostenduringallieshavealwaysbeen
democracies.IfyouthinkaboutAmerica'sclosestpartnersintheworld,they're
democracies.Alloftheautocracieswithwhichwe'vehadalliancerelationshipshave
alwaysbeentense.Andtheyonlybecomestablewhenthosecountriesmake
transitions.Throughoutourhistory.

Andthere'ssomethingI'vewrittenaboutcalledthefalsepromiseofautocratic
stability,whichistosaythatautocraciescanbeouralliesbutthey'reneverourlong-
termalliesbecauseautocracieshavetheproblemofremaininginpower.SoIranwas
anincrediblycloseallyoftheUnitedStatesfordecadesundertheShah.Andthen,
oneyear,theybecameourworstenemy.Thatonlyhappensinautocracies.Itdoesn't
happenwithdemocraticalliances.

ThefourththingIwouldsayaboutthistensionyou'vehighlightedisthatit'sreal.
There'snosolution.Ourcriticssay,Wellyouneedtobepure,onewayortheother.
AndIwouldjustsaythat,[with]alladministrations(Obama,Bush,Clinton,andall
thewaybacktotheFrenchRevolution),thisisatensionbetweeninterestsandvalues.
Thewaypresidentsresolveitistheysaywehaveshort-termintereststhatwehaveto
pursue,andwealsoneedtopursueourlong-termvaluesourlong-terminterestin
supportingvalues.AndIagreewiththat.Ithinkthat'ssmart.WhatIthinkisnotsmart
istheuseofmilitaryforcetopromotedemocracy.Itjustdoesn'twork.Itneverhas.
Andweshouldgetoutofthatbusiness.
 From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 04/17/201608:53:42AM
To: ChrisBort<chris.bort@gmail.com>
ButIloveRussia,andIloveRussians.FormerUSAmbassadortoRussiaMichaelMcFaulspeakstoMeduzaMeduza.News,reports,
Subject:
interviews,videosfromRussia

http://meduza.io/en/feature/2016/04/16/but-i-love-russia-and-i-love-russians

ButIloveRussia,andIloveRussians.FormerUS
AmbassadortoRussiaMichaelMcFaulspeaksto
MeduzaMeduza.News,reports,interviews,
videosfromRussia
Thepasttwoweeks,travelingbetweenuniversitiesintheUS,I'veheardroughlythesame
thingeverywhere:there'sanenormousproblemwithAmericanspecialistsonRussia.The
leadingexpertsarethestill-livingSovietologistswhosuddenlyfindthemselvesneeded
again.Doyoufindthistobethecase?

It'smorecomplexthanthat.There'sgoodandthere'sbad.Ontheonehand,inacademia,after
theendoftheColdWar,therewasarenaissanceinthestudyofRussia,becauseforthefirsttime
everyoucouldstudyRussialikeanormalcountry.Youcouldgothere.Youcouldtalktopeople.
Youcoulddosurveydataonpublicopinion.Youcouldwriteaboutelections.Iwrotemany
articlesandonebookaboutRussianelections,whereweusedthesamemethodsthatweuseto
studyAmericanelections.

AndIwouldsaythatperiodwasagreatgrowthtimeforacademicsinterestedinRussia,and
that'smygeneration(peopleyoungerthantheCold-Wargeneration,butnotthenewgeneration
somewhereinbetween).

Butthentwoorthreethingshappenedthathavecreatedthisproblem,orthiscrisis[inthefieldof
Russianstudies].Oneisthat,inAmericansocialsciences(economics,politicalscienceI'min
thedepartmentofpoliticalsciencehere[atStanford]),there'satrendawayfromstudyingone
country.SoifyoulookatthesuperstarsinpoliticalscienceinAmerica,they'renotspecialistson
RussiaorChinaorCanadaorFrancethey'respecialistsongeneraltrends:therelationship
betweendemocracyanddevelopment,andsoon.Theyusestatisticaldatatocomparelotsof
countries.AtmydepartmenthereatStanford,too,thesescholarsarethestars.

That'swherethetrendsareforpoliticalscience:they'renotforpeoplethatknowindividual
countries,likeme.So,ifyoulookaroundthemajoruniversitiesinAmerica,you'llfindfewerand
fewerRussiaspecialists,andthatmeanswedon'tteachgraduatestudentsorMaster'sstudentsor
undergraduatesaboutRussia.Weteachthemaboutmoregeneraltrends.Andthathasledtoa
fallingoffofstudentsespeciallyyoung,PhDstudentswhothenbecomeprofessorswhotryto
keepRussianstudiesalive.

Oneotherthingthathashappenedwhatisanothertrendisthatthere'sbeenanexplosionof
thinktanksinWashington.YouprobablynoticedtheminWashington,right?

Yes,they'reeverywhere.
They'reeverywhere!

ThegoodnewsaboutthatisthattherearespecialistsonRussiawhocangetjobsinthosethink
tanks,whocouldnevergetajobinauniversity.Thebadnews,inmyopinion,isthatthere'snot
muchqualitycontrol.Anybodycansay,I'maRussiaspecialist,andthenappearonTV,and
writeablog.There'snodifferencebetweenaprofessoratHarvardandadirectorofathinktank
inWashingtoninthenoisethatistheexperts.

AndIknowmycolleaguesinacademia.Yousee,I'mveryrare.Igobackandforth.Therearen't
manypeoplewhowereingovernmentandalsopoliticalscienceprofessors.Thereareveryfew
ofus(likethreeorfourinthewholecountry).Ithinkthat'sledtoadeteriorationofanalysisof
Russia.

Thegoodnewsisthatpeoplecanadapt,andinstitutescanadapt.Istartedaprogramon[Russia]
recently,andjustlikethat[snapsfingers]wehadlotsofstudentinterestinthingsrelatedto
RussiaandEurope.Ithinkit'sincumbentonpeoplelikemetohelpbringRussianstudiesbackto
theuniversity.BecauseImyselfhavenottaughtacourseonRussiafor15years.Ihaven'teven
beenteachingaboutRussiaI'vebeenteachingaboutdemocratization,USforeignpolicy,
democracydevelopment,andruleoflaw.ThosearethecoursesI'vebeenteaching.I'vedecided
thatnextyearI'mgoingtogobacktoteachingRussia.

Butyou'reinStanfordandallthesethinktanksareinWashington,DC.Andthey'rethere
becausetheywanttoinfluencepolicy.

That'sright.

PresidentDmitryMedvedevduringhisvisittotheUSin2010.

Photo:DmitryAstakhov/TASS/Scanpix

I'vebeentoldthatnobodyintheUnitedStatesisterriblyinterestedingettinginvolved
withRussia,butit'stheoppositewithChinaandtheMiddleEast.Therewillalwaysbe
businesstodowithChina,andtheMiddleEastwillalwaysbeamess.Butwhenitcomes
toRussia,youcan'talwaysdobusiness,andit'snotawfulenoughallthetimeto
guaranteeafuture,intermsofacareer.

Ithinkthat'strue.Tome,it'stragic.Tome,ifyougobackjustseveralyears,whentherewere
newopportunities,andtherewasapushtohavemorecontactwithRussia.PresidentMedvedev
cametoStanford.Hespokeherein2010,andwasgreetedbythousandsofpeople.Hemetwith
ourstudents,anditfeltlikethiswasgoingtobesomething.TherewasSiliconValley,andthere
werecompaniesinRussia.Lotsofactivity.

Andnowthere'slotsofuncertainty,intermsofcareerpaths.You'reright.Andsonowtheonly
careerpathwithguaranteedjobsecurityisintheUSgovernment,butthosejobsarenot
interesting,unlessyougetinatthehighestlevels.AtaplacelikeStanford,andthisisoneofthe
mostprestigiousuniversitiesinthecountryrightnow,whywouldyoudoallthat,whenyoucan
justwalkdownthestreetandgoworkforGoogle?Sowe'recompetingtogetthosepeople
interestedinRussia-relatedjobs.It'saproblem.

ButrightnowtheprobleminUS-Russianrelationsisn'taboutwhathappensintheyears
tocome,butwhathappensrightnow.DoestheUSgovernmenthaveaproblemtoday
findingqualifiedareaexperts?

I'dsaytwothings:oneisthat,despitealltheproblems,inmyopinion(andI'maverybiased
personhereIworkedforsevenyearsforObama,twointhecampaignandfiveinthe
government)...Itwasmyview,whenIwasinthegovernment,that,intheseniorpositions
dealingwithRussia,wehadtremendousexpertise.

OveratthePentagon,wehadCelesteWallander,whonowworksforthepresidentattheWhite
House.(She'saformerHarvardprofessor.)AttheStateDepartment,atmylevel,wehadalotof
strongpeople.WhenIworkedattheembassy,myseniorstaff(keywordsenior)werefirstrate.
Mypoliticalofficer,forinstance,wasaguynamedHowardSolomon.(HeworksinLithuania
now.)HeknowsmoreaboutRussiathananybodyintheUSknew20yearsagoor30yearsago.

Buthere'stheproblem:it'sthin,anditcaneasilychange.Andwe'vegotelectionscomingup.

Andwhatabouttheelections?WillUS-RussianrelationschangewithanewUSpresident?
IsRussiaanissueatallintheUSpresidentialelection?

IsRussiaatheme?Atalowlevel,yes.Anditwillbecomeabiggertheme,ifit'sClintonversus
Trump,becauseTrumphassaidsomevery...uniquethingsaboutUS-Russianrelations.Andhe's
saidsomeveryuniquethingsaboutourrelationshipwithouralliesinEuropethatwillcreatea
debate.

He'ssaiduniquethingsaboutnearlyeverything,itseems...

Yes.I'mtryingtobediplomatic!I'madiplomat!

Infulldisclosure,IamaninformaladvisortoSecretaryClinton.She'sanotherofmyoldbosses.
Wejusthostedher[atStanford]lastweek.IhaveaprettygoodsenseofherpositionsonRussia
infact,averygoodsense.Bytheway,afterIintroducedher,shesaidthankyouandsoon,
andthenImentionedsomethingaboutourlasttriptogether,whichwastoVladivostok.Andshe
said,makingeveryonelaugh,WhathappensinVladivostok,staysinVladivostok.

BecauseofTrump'spositions,you'regoingtohaveadebateabouthowtodealwithPutin.You're
goingtohaveadebateabouttheNATOalliance.Andyou'regoingtohaveadebateabout
Ukraine.Traditionally,foreignpolicyisn'timportantatallinAmericanpolitics.Whenitis,it's
usuallynotaboutRussia.But,asitwasin2008,whenIworkedonthatcampaignwithPresident
Obama,whenthere'sabigeventinRussia...Backthen,itwastheRussian-Georgianwar.This
time,itwillbeRussianinterventioninUkraine.ThereisagroupofvotersinAmericawhocarea
lotaboutRussianpolicy.TherearepeopleofEastEuropeandescent:Latvians,Lithuanians,
Poles.

Howmanypeoplearewetalkingabout?

Itdependsonwhichstate.RememberourElectoralCollegeiseverything.Buttheytendtobe
concentratedinwhatwecallswingstatesinstatesthatsometimesgoDemocraticand
sometimesgoRepublican.So,Pennsylvania,Wisconsin,Michigan,Florida.Floridaisabigswing
state,andtherearetensofthousandsofPolish-AmericansinFlorida.

AndtheycareaboutRussia?

AndtheycarealotaboutRussia(inthewaysthatyouwouldguess).Andtherearelotsof
Ukrainian-AmericansinPennsylvania,forinstance.Forthosegroups,thisisgoingtobeanissue
whereTrumpversusClintonisastarkcontrast,ifit'sthosetwo.Andthiscouldhaveaninfluence
ontheelection.

SoRussiabecomesmoreofanissueinaracebetweenthesetwocandidates?

Correct.Butnotuntilthen.It'stooearlynow.

HillaryClintonandMichaelMcFaul.March2016.

Photo:CarolynKaster/AP/Scanpix

WhendiscussingRussiatodayintheUnitedStates,howpossibleisittoavoidthe
terminologyoftheColdWar?Itseemsdangerouswhentwocountriescanonlytalkabout
eachotherasenemies...
Asyoumightimagine,IgivealotoftalksonRussia,alloverthecountry.Aboutonceeverytwo
weeks,I'mgivingamajortalk.AndI'dsayacoupleofthings.One,there'sabiginterestin
Russia.I'msometimesspeakingto800peopleinstateslikeMontana.Eighthundredpeoplecame
tomytalkaboutRussiainMontana.IwasinnorthernFloridasixmonthsago.Ninehundred
peopleshowedupforatalkonRussia.WhatImeantosayisthatthereisinterestinthistopic.

Thesewerejustregularpeoplewhocametolistentoyou?

Yes,justregularpeople.Notexperts.

IalsoworkforanewsagencycalledNBCNews,soIcantelltheebbandflowofthenews
interestbywhentheyaskmetobeonTV.AndIwouldsaythatyourgeneralthesisisabsolutely
right.There'saverysimplifiedstorythatgoesbacktotheColdWar.Mostpeoplefocusonits
outcome,andwhenIgivemytalksI'veseenthis.

Butthere'sabiggerdebateaboutwho'satfault.AndIthinkyou'dbesurprisedespeciallyat
universitycampusesthatthequestionismorecontestedamongelites,especiallyliberalelitesin
America.Andthat'sfine.Ihavemyownverystrongviewsonthat,personally.AndI'mactually
writingabookaboutit,soIhavemyownargument.

ButthebiggestmessageIalwayshave,inallofmyspeechesandwhenI'monTV,aswell,isto
fightthestereotypesaboutRussiaandRussians.ThefirstthingIsayisthatyou'renotallowedin
myclassormylecturestosaythingslike,RussiathinksthisorRussiathinksweshould...
I'venevermetMr.Russia.HaveyoumetMr.Russia?I'venevermetthatguy,oraMs.Russia.
[Laughs.]

There'snooneviewinRussia.Theremaybemorepopularviews,butit'samuchmorecomplex
societythanIwouldsaymoreAmericansandEuropeansunderstand.It'smuchmorenuanced.
AndeventhewaytheregimeMr.Putinandhisregimedealswithsocietyismuchmore
complex.[Justlookat]howtheydealwithyou[Meduza]!MostAmericansareshockedthat
Meduzaexists.Andthatyou'renotarrestedwhenyouflytoMoscow.

Yes,I'veheardthismanytimesfromAmericans.

Sothat'sinteresting,right?ThatmeansRussiaisnotexactlylikepeoplethinkitis.

AndwhatarethechancesofimprovingrelationsbetweenRussiaandtheUS?Itseemslike
bothpresidentshavegivenupononeanother.

I'dsaythreethings.Theconflictsarereal.Andthey'renotjustbasedonpersonalitydifferences
betweenPutinandObama,orsomethinglikethat.It'sbecauseit'saviewsharedbyeveryonein
theObamaadministrationandmostAmericanforeignpolicyelitesthatRussiaannexedterritoryin
Ukraineandthenfomentedthisproxywar[intheDonbas],andthatviolatestherulesofthe
internationalsystem.

I'vemetlotsofRussianswhosay,Canwejustgetoverthis,andgetbacktodoingbusiness?
Andthatfundamentalconflictwillnotgoawayanytimesoon,inmyopinion.

ThesecondthingI'dsayisthatI'veworkedwithPutin,I'vebeeninmanymeetingswithPutin,
andhefundamentallythinksoftheUnitedStatesasacompetitorandanenemy.That'snotgoing
tochange.He'shadthatviewforalongtime.Ifirstmethimin1991.

1991?Andhewassayingthesamething?

Well,Ididn'tknowhimaswellthen.Letmejustspeakabouthimaspresident.I'veseenhimtalk
withObamaabouttheseissues,andhe'sgotthatviewandthat'snotgoingtochange.
Imethimactuallythrough[formerSt.PetersburgMayorAnatoly]Sobchak.ItwasaprogramI
wasdoingwithSobchak,andPutinwasinchargeofforeigncontactsforSobchak.

VladimirPutinandAnatolySobchakin1993.

Photo:MikhailRazuvaev/Kommersant

DoyourememberanythingaboutPutinspecificallyfromthisperiod?

Notmuch.Hedidn'tmakeabigimpression.Hisdeputymadeabiggerimpressiononme.Igor
Sechin.ImetSechinbackthen,too.Hewasveryfriendly.HewasoneofthefirstguysImet
whoopenlytoldmethattheyworkedforSovietintelligencethiswasstillintheSovietUnion.
(Thiswasin1991beforethecollapse.)Igottoknowhim[Sechin]prettywell.Weboth
speakPortuguese.

YoutalkedinPortuguese?

Alittlebit.ButtherearetwomorethingsIwanttosay:oneisthatwecanagreetodisagreeon
onesetofissues,andcooperateinasmallerspaceonotherissues.AndIthinkthat'swhat
Obamaisdoing.Andthat'swhatthenextpresidentshoulddo,butwithnoillusionsthat
cooperationinSyriaisgoingtoleadtoanotherReset.Ithinkthat'snaive,andthat'snotgoingto
happen.IwastheauthoroftheReset.I'mtoblame.

Whyareyoutoblame?

Imeanthatmanycriticsblameme,sayingweweretheoneswhodidthis[attemptedtheReset],
anditwasamistake.Idon'tagreewiththis.I'mwritingabookrightnowabouthowwewere
righttohavedonewhatwedid.It'scalledTheReset.

ThelastthingI'llsayisthat,evenwhenthereisdisagreementabouttheseotherthings,wecannot
isolateRussians.I'mnotsayingRussia[thecountry]I'msayingRussians[thepeople].Tome,
that'snotgoodforourinterests.Idon'tthinkit'sgoodforRussia'sinterests,andsowehaveto
makesurethatwetrytokeepbordersopen,keepuniversitiesopen,andkeepexchangesgoing...

Butisn'tthereadangerthatyouisolateRussianswhenyouisolateRussia?Technically,
ourowngovernmentisisolatingus,butit'sinresponsetoRussia'sinternationalisolation.

AndweneedtomakesurethatRussiansunderstandthatit'stheirgovernmentdoingthat,notus.
Ihavenoproblemwithyouatallcriticizingmypresident.Knockyourselfout.I'vehearditall.I
usedtobetheambassador,right?

Butwhatyoucan'tdoissay,BecauseyourpresidentwassuchanidiotonSyria,I'mnotgoing
togotoStanford.That'scrazy.It'scrazy.Justlikeforme,Iwasverycriticaloflotsofpolicies
thatthePutingovernmentdid,butIloveRussia.AndIloveRussians.Andyoucan'tmakeme
outtobeanti-RussianjustbecauseofwhatIsaidaboutSyria.Andthat'sthethingthatIthinkwe
havetofightagainst.

ButdoyouthinktheUSgovernmentshouldworktoisolateRussiafromtheworld?The
Russiathat'sresponsibleforannexingCrimea?

Notisolate,butthereneedtobeconsequencesforbadbehavior.So,whenRussiaannexed
Crimea,Ithinkitwas100percentrighttodosanctions.IfsanctionsareisolatingRussian
governmentofficials,welltheyshouldthinkaboutthatthenexttimetheythinkaboutannexing
territory.And,bytheway,theyare!Ithinksanctionshavebeenincrediblyeffective.Absolutely.

RegardingCrimea,theUShasstatedthatannexingpartofanothercountrywillresultin
consequences.ButMoscowrespondsthatRussiaisn'ttheonlystatethatchangestherules
here,andtheKremlinpoints,ofcourse,toIraqandAmerica'scampaignthere.Butthere
werenosanctionsagainsttheUSoritscoalition.HowshouldtheUnitedStateshandlethis
perceptioninRussia?

Iwouldsaytwothings.OneisthattheUnitedStatesactuallypaidaterriblepriceforinvading
Iraq.ThousandsofAmericansdied,tensofthousandsofIraqisdied,wespentalotofmoney
there,andweachievedverylittleresults.Andwealienatedlotsofouralliesduringthattime.
Wereformaleconomicsanctionsputinplaceagainstus?No.Butdidwepayaterriblepricefor
that?Myanswerisyes.

ThesecondthingIwouldsayisthatwehavethisphraseinEnglish:twowrongsdon'tmakea
right.Soifyoustealmybicycletoday,doesthatgivemearighttostealyourbicycletomorrow?
That'sastrangelogic.Right?IfyouthoughtIraqwaswrong,thenyoushouldthinkthesekindsof
unilateralusesofforcearealsowrong.IfyouthinkKrymnash[Crimeaisours]wasright,
thenyouhavetosay,Oh,well,theIraqwarthatwasfine.Butpeopledon'tsaythat.They
say,Okay,wellwhatabout....It'scalledwhataboutism.WellwhataboutIraq?Wellwhat
aboutSyria?Whataboutthisandwhataboutthat?

Mypointisthattwowrongsdon'tmakearight.IfyouwereforthewarinIraq,oryou'refor
Syria,orforKosovo,andmoredirectlytoRussia(becausethoseanalogiesarealittlebitfalse,
inmyview)the[analogy]that'sclosesttoRussiaisifyouwereforChechenindependence.
People[there]wantedindependence.IfyouwereforChechenindependence,thenIcan
understandyourenthusiasmforCrimeajoining.ButifyouwereagainstChechenindependence,
eventhoughthemajorityofthepeoplewantedtoleave[theRussianFederation],youcan'tbefor
annexation.That'sjustlogicallyinconsistent.

I'vespentagreatdealoftimelookingatPutin'sspeeches.Idoitforaliving,butImeanabout
Crimea[specifically].Idon'trememberaspeechbefore2014whereMr.Putinsaidit'sagreat
injusticethatKhrushchevgaveawayCrimea,andWeneedthisback.AndIcan'trecalla
speechwherehesaid,DoyouknowthattheethnicRussiansinCrimeaarebeingdiscriminated
against?They'rebeingkilled.It'sveryunstableandveryuncertainthere,andwehavetodefend
them.Ifsomebodyhadsaidthatbefore2014,thatwouldbealittlemoreinteresting.Butthefact
thatit'sallsaidafterwardssuggeststomethatthisisreallyaboutwhathappenedinMaidan,and
notaboutCrimea.

WhataboutRussiaafterPutin?It'shardtoimagineanyfutureRussianpresidentwho
wouldgiveCrimeaback.Itwouldbepoliticalsuicide.SohowdoestheWestandtheUS
dealwiththenextRussianpresident,evenifhe'sdemocraticandmuchbetter?

Idon'tknowtheanswertothatquestion.

Butthisistherealityinfiveortenyears.

MypredictionisthatitwillbethepolicyoftheUnitedStates,whetherit'saDemocrator
Republicanpresident,fordecadestocome,toneverrecognizetheannexationofCrimea.Tohold
ontothefalseillusionthatthat[position]mightchangewouldbemisguidedpolicy.

Atthesametime,Icanimagineascenariowhereprogressonotherfrontswouldleadto...ifthere
wereatrue,democratizingmomentinRussia,thatthatwouldbeembraced.WhatIworryabout
isthatwewon'trecognizethosemomentsbecausethere'ssuchlittlefaithinAmericarightnow
thattherecanbepositivechangeinRussiaatall.Iworryaboutthis.Iworryaboutisolationism.

Iworryaboutpeoplejustcheckingoutandjustthinkingthatthere'snothinggoodthatcanbe
donethere.Let'sjuststopthinkingaboutRussia.That,tome,istherealtendencyrightnow.
It'snotconfrontation.Sometimes,whenIspeaktoRussians,theythinkthatAmericansgetup
everymorningandallwedoisthinkaboutChtodelat'sRossiei?(Whatdowedowith
Russia?)ThatwewonderwhatshouldwedotoweakenRussia?That'swhatIworryabout.I
worryaboutindifference.Iworryaboutpeoplenotcaring,thinkingRussiadoesn'tmatter.

Russiaisisolatingitself.Lookatittoday.Wejusthadalmosteverymajorleaderontheplanetin
Washington[forthefourthNuclearSecuritySummit].Putin'snotthere.Hedecidednottocome.
IworrythatpeoplewillbegintothinkaboutRussiaasnotbeingevenimportanttoengage.And
thatwouldbeatragedyforRussiaandatragedyfortheUnitedStates.

So,ontheonehand,wehaveRussiaignoringimportantinternationalmeetings,andon
theotherhandwehaveSyria,whereMoscowhasmadeitabundantlyclearthatthis
campaignwaspartofbringingRussiabacktoglobalpolitics.Whytheparadox?

Ithinkthat'sthewrongwaytothinkofSyria.That'swhatthegovernmentsells,right?ButIhave
adifferentview.IthinkPutinhasbeenquitesuccessfulinhispolicyinSyria.Ithinkweshould
acknowledgethatthatheachievedhisobjective.AndhisobjectivewastostrengthenAssad,
andhe'sdonethat.HisobjectivewasnottodefeatISIS,despitewhateverpropagandahasbeen
said.It'sasclearasdaythatthatwasnothisobjective.MostoftheattackswerenotagainstISIS
theywereagainstothergroupsthere.Butweshouldgivehimcreditthatheachievedhis
objective.
 2016NuclearSecuritySummitinWashington,DC.

Photo:SeanKilpatrick/TheCanadianPress/PAImages/Scanpix

Butisn'tAssadfightingISIS,too?

IntermsoffightingISIS,theUnitedStatesandthecoalitionarefightingISISalotmorethanMr.
Assad.Now,don'tgetmewrong:it'sveryrational.Ithinkit'sasmartpolicytosaynowthat
Assadneedstobepartofthenegotiations,sowecanhaveacoalitiongovernmenttodealwith
ISIS.That's[Russia's]strategy.Butnobody(atleastamongthepeopleIknow,whoaredealing
withtheRussians,andIknowmanypeople)isthinking,Oh!Isn'titgreatthatRussiaisnowa
greatactorinthewar!It'smorelikeRussiaputaguntoourheadandthey'veachievedthis
result,andwehavetodealwiththem.

Soyou'renotcomingintotheinternationalcommunityonSyriaasarespectedpartnerPutinis
cominginasanecessarypartner.It'sastrategy.Igetit.Youcanbeatoughguy.Bulliesgetalot
ofattention.Toughguysgetalotofattention,butitdoesn'tmeanreintegration.Idon'tthink
anybodyhaschangedtheirviewsaboutMr.PutinasaresultofSyria.

SotheUS-ledcoalitionisactuallybombingISIS,butpartofthiscoalitionisTurkey,which
weknowhasbombedtheKurds.Erdoanisatoughguy,too.He'sabully,too.Sowhyis
hepartofAmerica'scoalition?

Erdoanisverycomplicated.You'reexactlyright.Ontheonehand,wehavesimilarobjectives.
Youknow:theenemyofmyenemyismyfriend.Butonsomeveryparticularissues,wehave
radicaldifferenceswithMr.Erdoan.HejustsaidthatinhisspeechyesterdayinWashington
abouthowwetotallydisagreeabouttheroleoftheKurdsinSyria.

AndTurkeyhasanopenborderwithISIS.

Butit'sanillustrationofmypoint:thebullythatisErdoanwehavetodealwithhimbecause
ofthenatureofthecrisis.Butnobodyisrespectinghimforwhatheisdoing.Hejustcameto
WashingtonandthepresidentoftheUnitedStatesdidn'tevenmeetwithhim.

You'vepointedoutthetensionbetweenhavingcommoninterestsbutmaybenotcommonvalues.
Andthathappensalotindiplomacy.

RussiansoldiersatPalmyra,Syria.April2016.

Photo:ValerySharifulin/TASS/Scanpix

Soyou'velaidoutaverypragmaticpositionregardingTurkey.WiththeUSandother
countries,itseemstherearetwogeneralstrategies:thepolicyofpragmatism,whereyou
cooperatewithnationswhenit'sinyourcurrentinterests,andthepolicyofwe're
spreadingdemocracythroughouttheworld.Howdoyoureconcilethesetwostrategies?

Iwouldsayafewthings.Firstofall,itistruethattheUnitedStates,overourhistory,fromthe
verybeginning,hashadalliesthatareautocraticregimes.Ourfirstremember,goingalltheway
backtothebeginningoftheAmericanRepublicourmostimportantallywasFrance,a
monarchyandadictatorship.Theyarethereasonwhywe'refree.WithouttheFrench,wewould
havelostthewaragainsttheBritish.And,justsoyouknow,ifyougobackandyoulookatthat
history,thentherewastheFrenchRevolution,andtherewasadebateinWashingtonabout
whetherwesupportouralliesandourinterestsorthesepeoplewhowanteddemocracy.Sothe
tensiongoesallthewaybacktothebeginning.

ThesecondthingIwouldsayisthatourmostenduringallieshavealwaysbeendemocracies.If
youthinkaboutAmerica'sclosestpartnersintheworld,they'redemocracies.Allofthe
autocracieswithwhichwe'vehadalliancerelationshipshavealwaysbeentense.Andtheyonly
becomestablewhenthosecountriesmaketransitions.Throughoutourhistory.

Andthere'ssomethingI'vewrittenaboutcalledthefalsepromiseofautocraticstability,whichis
tosaythatautocraciescanbeouralliesbutthey'reneverourlong-termalliesbecauseautocracies
havetheproblemofremaininginpower.SoIranwasanincrediblycloseallyoftheUnitedStates
fordecadesundertheShah.Andthen,oneyear,theybecameourworstenemy.Thatonly
happensinautocracies.Itdoesn'thappenwithdemocraticalliances.

ThefourththingIwouldsayaboutthistensionyou'vehighlightedisthatit'sreal.There'sno
solution.Ourcriticssay,Wellyouneedtobepure,onewayortheother.AndIwouldjustsay
that,[with]alladministrations(Obama,Bush,Clinton,andallthewaybacktotheFrench
Revolution),thisisatensionbetweeninterestsandvalues.Thewaypresidentsresolveitisthey
saywehaveshort-termintereststhatwehavetopursue,andwealsoneedtopursueourlong-
termvaluesourlong-terminterestinsupportingvalues.AndIagreewiththat.Ithinkthat's
smart.WhatIthinkisnotsmartistheuseofmilitaryforcetopromotedemocracy.Itjustdoesn't
work.Itneverhas.Andweshouldgetoutofthatbusiness.
 From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 04/17/201608:53:42AM
To: ChrisBort<chris.bort@gmail.com>
ButIloveRussia,andIloveRussians.FormerUSAmbassadortoRussiaMichaelMcFaulspeakstoMeduzaMeduza.News,reports,
Subject:
interviews,videosfromRussia

http://meduza.io/en/feature/2016/04/16/but-i-love-russia-and-i-love-russians

ButIloveRussia,andIloveRussians.FormerUS
AmbassadortoRussiaMichaelMcFaulspeaksto
MeduzaMeduza.News,reports,interviews,
videosfromRussia
Thepasttwoweeks,travelingbetweenuniversitiesintheUS,I'veheardroughlythesame
thingeverywhere:there'sanenormousproblemwithAmericanspecialistsonRussia.The
leadingexpertsarethestill-livingSovietologistswhosuddenlyfindthemselvesneeded
again.Doyoufindthistobethecase?

It'smorecomplexthanthat.There'sgoodandthere'sbad.Ontheonehand,inacademia,after
theendoftheColdWar,therewasarenaissanceinthestudyofRussia,becauseforthefirsttime
everyoucouldstudyRussialikeanormalcountry.Youcouldgothere.Youcouldtalktopeople.
Youcoulddosurveydataonpublicopinion.Youcouldwriteaboutelections.Iwrotemany
articlesandonebookaboutRussianelections,whereweusedthesamemethodsthatweuseto
studyAmericanelections.

AndIwouldsaythatperiodwasagreatgrowthtimeforacademicsinterestedinRussia,and
that'smygeneration(peopleyoungerthantheCold-Wargeneration,butnotthenewgeneration
somewhereinbetween).

Butthentwoorthreethingshappenedthathavecreatedthisproblem,orthiscrisis[inthefieldof
Russianstudies].Oneisthat,inAmericansocialsciences(economics,politicalscienceI'min
thedepartmentofpoliticalsciencehere[atStanford]),there'satrendawayfromstudyingone
country.SoifyoulookatthesuperstarsinpoliticalscienceinAmerica,they'renotspecialistson
RussiaorChinaorCanadaorFrancethey'respecialistsongeneraltrends:therelationship
betweendemocracyanddevelopment,andsoon.Theyusestatisticaldatatocomparelotsof
countries.AtmydepartmenthereatStanford,too,thesescholarsarethestars.

That'swherethetrendsareforpoliticalscience:they'renotforpeoplethatknowindividual
countries,likeme.So,ifyoulookaroundthemajoruniversitiesinAmerica,you'llfindfewerand
fewerRussiaspecialists,andthatmeanswedon'tteachgraduatestudentsorMaster'sstudentsor
undergraduatesaboutRussia.Weteachthemaboutmoregeneraltrends.Andthathasledtoa
fallingoffofstudentsespeciallyyoung,PhDstudentswhothenbecomeprofessorswhotryto
keepRussianstudiesalive.

Oneotherthingthathashappenedwhatisanothertrendisthatthere'sbeenanexplosionof
thinktanksinWashington.YouprobablynoticedtheminWashington,right?

Yes,they'reeverywhere.
They'reeverywhere!

ThegoodnewsaboutthatisthattherearespecialistsonRussiawhocangetjobsinthosethink
tanks,whocouldnevergetajobinauniversity.Thebadnews,inmyopinion,isthatthere'snot
muchqualitycontrol.Anybodycansay,I'maRussiaspecialist,andthenappearonTV,and
writeablog.There'snodifferencebetweenaprofessoratHarvardandadirectorofathinktank
inWashingtoninthenoisethatistheexperts.

AndIknowmycolleaguesinacademia.Yousee,I'mveryrare.Igobackandforth.Therearen't
manypeoplewhowereingovernmentandalsopoliticalscienceprofessors.Thereareveryfew
ofus(likethreeorfourinthewholecountry).Ithinkthat'sledtoadeteriorationofanalysisof
Russia.

Thegoodnewsisthatpeoplecanadapt,andinstitutescanadapt.Istartedaprogramon[Russia]
recently,andjustlikethat[snapsfingers]wehadlotsofstudentinterestinthingsrelatedto
RussiaandEurope.Ithinkit'sincumbentonpeoplelikemetohelpbringRussianstudiesbackto
theuniversity.BecauseImyselfhavenottaughtacourseonRussiafor15years.Ihaven'teven
beenteachingaboutRussiaI'vebeenteachingaboutdemocratization,USforeignpolicy,
democracydevelopment,andruleoflaw.ThosearethecoursesI'vebeenteaching.I'vedecided
thatnextyearI'mgoingtogobacktoteachingRussia.

Butyou'reinStanfordandallthesethinktanksareinWashington,DC.Andthey'rethere
becausetheywanttoinfluencepolicy.

That'sright.

PresidentDmitryMedvedevduringhisvisittotheUSin2010.

Photo:DmitryAstakhov/TASS/Scanpix

I'vebeentoldthatnobodyintheUnitedStatesisterriblyinterestedingettinginvolved
withRussia,butit'stheoppositewithChinaandtheMiddleEast.Therewillalwaysbe
businesstodowithChina,andtheMiddleEastwillalwaysbeamess.Butwhenitcomes
toRussia,youcan'talwaysdobusiness,andit'snotawfulenoughallthetimeto
guaranteeafuture,intermsofacareer.

Ithinkthat'strue.Tome,it'stragic.Tome,ifyougobackjustseveralyears,whentherewere
newopportunities,andtherewasapushtohavemorecontactwithRussia.PresidentMedvedev
cametoStanford.Hespokeherein2010,andwasgreetedbythousandsofpeople.Hemetwith
ourstudents,anditfeltlikethiswasgoingtobesomething.TherewasSiliconValley,andthere
werecompaniesinRussia.Lotsofactivity.

Andnowthere'slotsofuncertainty,intermsofcareerpaths.You'reright.Andsonowtheonly
careerpathwithguaranteedjobsecurityisintheUSgovernment,butthosejobsarenot
interesting,unlessyougetinatthehighestlevels.AtaplacelikeStanford,andthisisoneofthe
mostprestigiousuniversitiesinthecountryrightnow,whywouldyoudoallthat,whenyoucan
justwalkdownthestreetandgoworkforGoogle?Sowe'recompetingtogetthosepeople
interestedinRussia-relatedjobs.It'saproblem.

ButrightnowtheprobleminUS-Russianrelationsisn'taboutwhathappensintheyears
tocome,butwhathappensrightnow.DoestheUSgovernmenthaveaproblemtoday
findingqualifiedareaexperts?

I'dsaytwothings:oneisthat,despitealltheproblems,inmyopinion(andI'maverybiased
personhereIworkedforsevenyearsforObama,twointhecampaignandfiveinthe
government)...Itwasmyview,whenIwasinthegovernment,that,intheseniorpositions
dealingwithRussia,wehadtremendousexpertise.

OveratthePentagon,wehadCelesteWallander,whonowworksforthepresidentattheWhite
House.(She'saformerHarvardprofessor.)AttheStateDepartment,atmylevel,wehadalotof
strongpeople.WhenIworkedattheembassy,myseniorstaff(keywordsenior)werefirstrate.
Mypoliticalofficer,forinstance,wasaguynamedHowardSolomon.(HeworksinLithuania
now.)HeknowsmoreaboutRussiathananybodyintheUSknew20yearsagoor30yearsago.

Buthere'stheproblem:it'sthin,anditcaneasilychange.Andwe'vegotelectionscomingup.

Andwhatabouttheelections?WillUS-RussianrelationschangewithanewUSpresident?
IsRussiaanissueatallintheUSpresidentialelection?

IsRussiaatheme?Atalowlevel,yes.Anditwillbecomeabiggertheme,ifit'sClintonversus
Trump,becauseTrumphassaidsomevery...uniquethingsaboutUS-Russianrelations.Andhe's
saidsomeveryuniquethingsaboutourrelationshipwithouralliesinEuropethatwillcreatea
debate.

He'ssaiduniquethingsaboutnearlyeverything,itseems...

Yes.I'mtryingtobediplomatic!I'madiplomat!

Infulldisclosure,IamaninformaladvisortoSecretaryClinton.She'sanotherofmyoldbosses.
Wejusthostedher[atStanford]lastweek.IhaveaprettygoodsenseofherpositionsonRussia
infact,averygoodsense.Bytheway,afterIintroducedher,shesaidthankyouandsoon,
andthenImentionedsomethingaboutourlasttriptogether,whichwastoVladivostok.Andshe
said,makingeveryonelaugh,WhathappensinVladivostok,staysinVladivostok.

BecauseofTrump'spositions,you'regoingtohaveadebateabouthowtodealwithPutin.You're
goingtohaveadebateabouttheNATOalliance.Andyou'regoingtohaveadebateabout
Ukraine.Traditionally,foreignpolicyisn'timportantatallinAmericanpolitics.Whenitis,it's
usuallynotaboutRussia.But,asitwasin2008,whenIworkedonthatcampaignwithPresident
Obama,whenthere'sabigeventinRussia...Backthen,itwastheRussian-Georgianwar.This
time,itwillbeRussianinterventioninUkraine.ThereisagroupofvotersinAmericawhocarea
lotaboutRussianpolicy.TherearepeopleofEastEuropeandescent:Latvians,Lithuanians,
Poles.

Howmanypeoplearewetalkingabout?

Itdependsonwhichstate.RememberourElectoralCollegeiseverything.Buttheytendtobe
concentratedinwhatwecallswingstatesinstatesthatsometimesgoDemocraticand
sometimesgoRepublican.So,Pennsylvania,Wisconsin,Michigan,Florida.Floridaisabigswing
state,andtherearetensofthousandsofPolish-AmericansinFlorida.

AndtheycareaboutRussia?

AndtheycarealotaboutRussia(inthewaysthatyouwouldguess).Andtherearelotsof
Ukrainian-AmericansinPennsylvania,forinstance.Forthosegroups,thisisgoingtobeanissue
whereTrumpversusClintonisastarkcontrast,ifit'sthosetwo.Andthiscouldhaveaninfluence
ontheelection.

SoRussiabecomesmoreofanissueinaracebetweenthesetwocandidates?

Correct.Butnotuntilthen.It'stooearlynow.

HillaryClintonandMichaelMcFaul.March2016.

Photo:CarolynKaster/AP/Scanpix

WhendiscussingRussiatodayintheUnitedStates,howpossibleisittoavoidthe
terminologyoftheColdWar?Itseemsdangerouswhentwocountriescanonlytalkabout
eachotherasenemies...
Asyoumightimagine,IgivealotoftalksonRussia,alloverthecountry.Aboutonceeverytwo
weeks,I'mgivingamajortalk.AndI'dsayacoupleofthings.One,there'sabiginterestin
Russia.I'msometimesspeakingto800peopleinstateslikeMontana.Eighthundredpeoplecame
tomytalkaboutRussiainMontana.IwasinnorthernFloridasixmonthsago.Ninehundred
peopleshowedupforatalkonRussia.WhatImeantosayisthatthereisinterestinthistopic.

Thesewerejustregularpeoplewhocametolistentoyou?

Yes,justregularpeople.Notexperts.

IalsoworkforanewsagencycalledNBCNews,soIcantelltheebbandflowofthenews
interestbywhentheyaskmetobeonTV.AndIwouldsaythatyourgeneralthesisisabsolutely
right.There'saverysimplifiedstorythatgoesbacktotheColdWar.Mostpeoplefocusonits
outcome,andwhenIgivemytalksI'veseenthis.

Butthere'sabiggerdebateaboutwho'satfault.AndIthinkyou'dbesurprisedespeciallyat
universitycampusesthatthequestionismorecontestedamongelites,especiallyliberalelitesin
America.Andthat'sfine.Ihavemyownverystrongviewsonthat,personally.AndI'mactually
writingabookaboutit,soIhavemyownargument.

ButthebiggestmessageIalwayshave,inallofmyspeechesandwhenI'monTV,aswell,isto
fightthestereotypesaboutRussiaandRussians.ThefirstthingIsayisthatyou'renotallowedin
myclassormylecturestosaythingslike,RussiathinksthisorRussiathinksweshould...
I'venevermetMr.Russia.HaveyoumetMr.Russia?I'venevermetthatguy,oraMs.Russia.
[Laughs.]

There'snooneviewinRussia.Theremaybemorepopularviews,butit'samuchmorecomplex
societythanIwouldsaymoreAmericansandEuropeansunderstand.It'smuchmorenuanced.
AndeventhewaytheregimeMr.Putinandhisregimedealswithsocietyismuchmore
complex.[Justlookat]howtheydealwithyou[Meduza]!MostAmericansareshockedthat
Meduzaexists.Andthatyou'renotarrestedwhenyouflytoMoscow.

Yes,I'veheardthismanytimesfromAmericans.

Sothat'sinteresting,right?ThatmeansRussiaisnotexactlylikepeoplethinkitis.

AndwhatarethechancesofimprovingrelationsbetweenRussiaandtheUS?Itseemslike
bothpresidentshavegivenupononeanother.

I'dsaythreethings.Theconflictsarereal.Andthey'renotjustbasedonpersonalitydifferences
betweenPutinandObama,orsomethinglikethat.It'sbecauseit'saviewsharedbyeveryonein
theObamaadministrationandmostAmericanforeignpolicyelitesthatRussiaannexedterritoryin
Ukraineandthenfomentedthisproxywar[intheDonbas],andthatviolatestherulesofthe
internationalsystem.

I'vemetlotsofRussianswhosay,Canwejustgetoverthis,andgetbacktodoingbusiness?
Andthatfundamentalconflictwillnotgoawayanytimesoon,inmyopinion.

ThesecondthingI'dsayisthatI'veworkedwithPutin,I'vebeeninmanymeetingswithPutin,
andhefundamentallythinksoftheUnitedStatesasacompetitorandanenemy.That'snotgoing
tochange.He'shadthatviewforalongtime.Ifirstmethimin1991.

1991?Andhewassayingthesamething?

Well,Ididn'tknowhimaswellthen.Letmejustspeakabouthimaspresident.I'veseenhimtalk
withObamaabouttheseissues,andhe'sgotthatviewandthat'snotgoingtochange.
Imethimactuallythrough[formerSt.PetersburgMayorAnatoly]Sobchak.ItwasaprogramI
wasdoingwithSobchak,andPutinwasinchargeofforeigncontactsforSobchak.

VladimirPutinandAnatolySobchakin1993.

Photo:MikhailRazuvaev/Kommersant

DoyourememberanythingaboutPutinspecificallyfromthisperiod?

Notmuch.Hedidn'tmakeabigimpression.Hisdeputymadeabiggerimpressiononme.Igor
Sechin.ImetSechinbackthen,too.Hewasveryfriendly.HewasoneofthefirstguysImet
whoopenlytoldmethattheyworkedforSovietintelligencethiswasstillintheSovietUnion.
(Thiswasin1991beforethecollapse.)Igottoknowhim[Sechin]prettywell.Weboth
speakPortuguese.

YoutalkedinPortuguese?

Alittlebit.ButtherearetwomorethingsIwanttosay:oneisthatwecanagreetodisagreeon
onesetofissues,andcooperateinasmallerspaceonotherissues.AndIthinkthat'swhat
Obamaisdoing.Andthat'swhatthenextpresidentshoulddo,butwithnoillusionsthat
cooperationinSyriaisgoingtoleadtoanotherReset.Ithinkthat'snaive,andthat'snotgoingto
happen.IwastheauthoroftheReset.I'mtoblame.

Whyareyoutoblame?

Imeanthatmanycriticsblameme,sayingweweretheoneswhodidthis[attemptedtheReset],
anditwasamistake.Idon'tagreewiththis.I'mwritingabookrightnowabouthowwewere
righttohavedonewhatwedid.It'scalledTheReset.

ThelastthingI'llsayisthat,evenwhenthereisdisagreementabouttheseotherthings,wecannot
isolateRussians.I'mnotsayingRussia[thecountry]I'msayingRussians[thepeople].Tome,
that'snotgoodforourinterests.Idon'tthinkit'sgoodforRussia'sinterests,andsowehaveto
makesurethatwetrytokeepbordersopen,keepuniversitiesopen,andkeepexchangesgoing...

Butisn'tthereadangerthatyouisolateRussianswhenyouisolateRussia?Technically,
ourowngovernmentisisolatingus,butit'sinresponsetoRussia'sinternationalisolation.

AndweneedtomakesurethatRussiansunderstandthatit'stheirgovernmentdoingthat,notus.
Ihavenoproblemwithyouatallcriticizingmypresident.Knockyourselfout.I'vehearditall.I
usedtobetheambassador,right?

Butwhatyoucan'tdoissay,BecauseyourpresidentwassuchanidiotonSyria,I'mnotgoing
togotoStanford.That'scrazy.It'scrazy.Justlikeforme,Iwasverycriticaloflotsofpolicies
thatthePutingovernmentdid,butIloveRussia.AndIloveRussians.Andyoucan'tmakeme
outtobeanti-RussianjustbecauseofwhatIsaidaboutSyria.Andthat'sthethingthatIthinkwe
havetofightagainst.

ButdoyouthinktheUSgovernmentshouldworktoisolateRussiafromtheworld?The
Russiathat'sresponsibleforannexingCrimea?

Notisolate,butthereneedtobeconsequencesforbadbehavior.So,whenRussiaannexed
Crimea,Ithinkitwas100percentrighttodosanctions.IfsanctionsareisolatingRussian
governmentofficials,welltheyshouldthinkaboutthatthenexttimetheythinkaboutannexing
territory.And,bytheway,theyare!Ithinksanctionshavebeenincrediblyeffective.Absolutely.

RegardingCrimea,theUShasstatedthatannexingpartofanothercountrywillresultin
consequences.ButMoscowrespondsthatRussiaisn'ttheonlystatethatchangestherules
here,andtheKremlinpoints,ofcourse,toIraqandAmerica'scampaignthere.Butthere
werenosanctionsagainsttheUSoritscoalition.HowshouldtheUnitedStateshandlethis
perceptioninRussia?

Iwouldsaytwothings.OneisthattheUnitedStatesactuallypaidaterriblepriceforinvading
Iraq.ThousandsofAmericansdied,tensofthousandsofIraqisdied,wespentalotofmoney
there,andweachievedverylittleresults.Andwealienatedlotsofouralliesduringthattime.
Wereformaleconomicsanctionsputinplaceagainstus?No.Butdidwepayaterriblepricefor
that?Myanswerisyes.

ThesecondthingIwouldsayisthatwehavethisphraseinEnglish:twowrongsdon'tmakea
right.Soifyoustealmybicycletoday,doesthatgivemearighttostealyourbicycletomorrow?
That'sastrangelogic.Right?IfyouthoughtIraqwaswrong,thenyoushouldthinkthesekindsof
unilateralusesofforcearealsowrong.IfyouthinkKrymnash[Crimeaisours]wasright,
thenyouhavetosay,Oh,well,theIraqwarthatwasfine.Butpeopledon'tsaythat.They
say,Okay,wellwhatabout....It'scalledwhataboutism.WellwhataboutIraq?Wellwhat
aboutSyria?Whataboutthisandwhataboutthat?

Mypointisthattwowrongsdon'tmakearight.IfyouwereforthewarinIraq,oryou'refor
Syria,orforKosovo,andmoredirectlytoRussia(becausethoseanalogiesarealittlebitfalse,
inmyview)the[analogy]that'sclosesttoRussiaisifyouwereforChechenindependence.
People[there]wantedindependence.IfyouwereforChechenindependence,thenIcan
understandyourenthusiasmforCrimeajoining.ButifyouwereagainstChechenindependence,
eventhoughthemajorityofthepeoplewantedtoleave[theRussianFederation],youcan'tbefor
annexation.That'sjustlogicallyinconsistent.

I'vespentagreatdealoftimelookingatPutin'sspeeches.Idoitforaliving,butImeanabout
Crimea[specifically].Idon'trememberaspeechbefore2014whereMr.Putinsaidit'sagreat
injusticethatKhrushchevgaveawayCrimea,andWeneedthisback.AndIcan'trecalla
speechwherehesaid,DoyouknowthattheethnicRussiansinCrimeaarebeingdiscriminated
against?They'rebeingkilled.It'sveryunstableandveryuncertainthere,andwehavetodefend
them.Ifsomebodyhadsaidthatbefore2014,thatwouldbealittlemoreinteresting.Butthefact
thatit'sallsaidafterwardssuggeststomethatthisisreallyaboutwhathappenedinMaidan,and
notaboutCrimea.

WhataboutRussiaafterPutin?It'shardtoimagineanyfutureRussianpresidentwho
wouldgiveCrimeaback.Itwouldbepoliticalsuicide.SohowdoestheWestandtheUS
dealwiththenextRussianpresident,evenifhe'sdemocraticandmuchbetter?

Idon'tknowtheanswertothatquestion.

Butthisistherealityinfiveortenyears.

MypredictionisthatitwillbethepolicyoftheUnitedStates,whetherit'saDemocrator
Republicanpresident,fordecadestocome,toneverrecognizetheannexationofCrimea.Tohold
ontothefalseillusionthatthat[position]mightchangewouldbemisguidedpolicy.

Atthesametime,Icanimagineascenariowhereprogressonotherfrontswouldleadto...ifthere
wereatrue,democratizingmomentinRussia,thatthatwouldbeembraced.WhatIworryabout
isthatwewon'trecognizethosemomentsbecausethere'ssuchlittlefaithinAmericarightnow
thattherecanbepositivechangeinRussiaatall.Iworryaboutthis.Iworryaboutisolationism.

Iworryaboutpeoplejustcheckingoutandjustthinkingthatthere'snothinggoodthatcanbe
donethere.Let'sjuststopthinkingaboutRussia.That,tome,istherealtendencyrightnow.
It'snotconfrontation.Sometimes,whenIspeaktoRussians,theythinkthatAmericansgetup
everymorningandallwedoisthinkaboutChtodelat'sRossiei?(Whatdowedowith
Russia?)ThatwewonderwhatshouldwedotoweakenRussia?That'swhatIworryabout.I
worryaboutindifference.Iworryaboutpeoplenotcaring,thinkingRussiadoesn'tmatter.

Russiaisisolatingitself.Lookatittoday.Wejusthadalmosteverymajorleaderontheplanetin
Washington[forthefourthNuclearSecuritySummit].Putin'snotthere.Hedecidednottocome.
IworrythatpeoplewillbegintothinkaboutRussiaasnotbeingevenimportanttoengage.And
thatwouldbeatragedyforRussiaandatragedyfortheUnitedStates.

So,ontheonehand,wehaveRussiaignoringimportantinternationalmeetings,andon
theotherhandwehaveSyria,whereMoscowhasmadeitabundantlyclearthatthis
campaignwaspartofbringingRussiabacktoglobalpolitics.Whytheparadox?

Ithinkthat'sthewrongwaytothinkofSyria.That'swhatthegovernmentsells,right?ButIhave
adifferentview.IthinkPutinhasbeenquitesuccessfulinhispolicyinSyria.Ithinkweshould
acknowledgethatthatheachievedhisobjective.AndhisobjectivewastostrengthenAssad,
andhe'sdonethat.HisobjectivewasnottodefeatISIS,despitewhateverpropagandahasbeen
said.It'sasclearasdaythatthatwasnothisobjective.MostoftheattackswerenotagainstISIS
theywereagainstothergroupsthere.Butweshouldgivehimcreditthatheachievedhis
objective.
 2016NuclearSecuritySummitinWashington,DC.

Photo:SeanKilpatrick/TheCanadianPress/PAImages/Scanpix

Butisn'tAssadfightingISIS,too?

IntermsoffightingISIS,theUnitedStatesandthecoalitionarefightingISISalotmorethanMr.
Assad.Now,don'tgetmewrong:it'sveryrational.Ithinkit'sasmartpolicytosaynowthat
Assadneedstobepartofthenegotiations,sowecanhaveacoalitiongovernmenttodealwith
ISIS.That's[Russia's]strategy.Butnobody(atleastamongthepeopleIknow,whoaredealing
withtheRussians,andIknowmanypeople)isthinking,Oh!Isn'titgreatthatRussiaisnowa
greatactorinthewar!It'smorelikeRussiaputaguntoourheadandthey'veachievedthis
result,andwehavetodealwiththem.

Soyou'renotcomingintotheinternationalcommunityonSyriaasarespectedpartnerPutinis
cominginasanecessarypartner.It'sastrategy.Igetit.Youcanbeatoughguy.Bulliesgetalot
ofattention.Toughguysgetalotofattention,butitdoesn'tmeanreintegration.Idon'tthink
anybodyhaschangedtheirviewsaboutMr.PutinasaresultofSyria.

SotheUS-ledcoalitionisactuallybombingISIS,butpartofthiscoalitionisTurkey,which
weknowhasbombedtheKurds.Erdoanisatoughguy,too.He'sabully,too.Sowhyis
hepartofAmerica'scoalition?

Erdoanisverycomplicated.You'reexactlyright.Ontheonehand,wehavesimilarobjectives.
Youknow:theenemyofmyenemyismyfriend.Butonsomeveryparticularissues,wehave
radicaldifferenceswithMr.Erdoan.HejustsaidthatinhisspeechyesterdayinWashington
abouthowwetotallydisagreeabouttheroleoftheKurdsinSyria.

AndTurkeyhasanopenborderwithISIS.

Butit'sanillustrationofmypoint:thebullythatisErdoanwehavetodealwithhimbecause
ofthenatureofthecrisis.Butnobodyisrespectinghimforwhatheisdoing.Hejustcameto
WashingtonandthepresidentoftheUnitedStatesdidn'tevenmeetwithhim.

You'vepointedoutthetensionbetweenhavingcommoninterestsbutmaybenotcommonvalues.
Andthathappensalotindiplomacy.

RussiansoldiersatPalmyra,Syria.April2016.

Photo:ValerySharifulin/TASS/Scanpix

Soyou'velaidoutaverypragmaticpositionregardingTurkey.WiththeUSandother
countries,itseemstherearetwogeneralstrategies:thepolicyofpragmatism,whereyou
cooperatewithnationswhenit'sinyourcurrentinterests,andthepolicyofwe're
spreadingdemocracythroughouttheworld.Howdoyoureconcilethesetwostrategies?

Iwouldsayafewthings.Firstofall,itistruethattheUnitedStates,overourhistory,fromthe
verybeginning,hashadalliesthatareautocraticregimes.Ourfirstremember,goingalltheway
backtothebeginningoftheAmericanRepublicourmostimportantallywasFrance,a
monarchyandadictatorship.Theyarethereasonwhywe'refree.WithouttheFrench,wewould
havelostthewaragainsttheBritish.And,justsoyouknow,ifyougobackandyoulookatthat
history,thentherewastheFrenchRevolution,andtherewasadebateinWashingtonabout
whetherwesupportouralliesandourinterestsorthesepeoplewhowanteddemocracy.Sothe
tensiongoesallthewaybacktothebeginning.

ThesecondthingIwouldsayisthatourmostenduringallieshavealwaysbeendemocracies.If
youthinkaboutAmerica'sclosestpartnersintheworld,they'redemocracies.Allofthe
autocracieswithwhichwe'vehadalliancerelationshipshavealwaysbeentense.Andtheyonly
becomestablewhenthosecountriesmaketransitions.Throughoutourhistory.

Andthere'ssomethingI'vewrittenaboutcalledthefalsepromiseofautocraticstability,whichis
tosaythatautocraciescanbeouralliesbutthey'reneverourlong-termalliesbecauseautocracies
havetheproblemofremaininginpower.SoIranwasanincrediblycloseallyoftheUnitedStates
fordecadesundertheShah.Andthen,oneyear,theybecameourworstenemy.Thatonly
happensinautocracies.Itdoesn'thappenwithdemocraticalliances.

ThefourththingIwouldsayaboutthistensionyou'vehighlightedisthatit'sreal.There'sno
solution.Ourcriticssay,Wellyouneedtobepure,onewayortheother.AndIwouldjustsay
that,[with]alladministrations(Obama,Bush,Clinton,andallthewaybacktotheFrench
Revolution),thisisatensionbetweeninterestsandvalues.Thewaypresidentsresolveitisthey
saywehaveshort-termintereststhatwehavetopursue,andwealsoneedtopursueourlong-
termvaluesourlong-terminterestinsupportingvalues.AndIagreewiththat.Ithinkthat's
smart.WhatIthinkisnotsmartistheuseofmilitaryforcetopromotedemocracy.Itjustdoesn't
work.Itneverhas.Andweshouldgetoutofthatbusiness.
 From: pmstronski@gmail.com
Senttime: 04/16/201610:50:09AM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: Re:HeLovesRussia.....

Whatanass!

SentfrommyiPhone

OnApr16,2016,at04:40,RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>wrote:

http://meduza.io/en/feature/2016/04/16/but-i-love-russia-and-i-love-russians

Photo:DmitryKostyukov/TheNewYorkTimes/Scanpix

ButIloveRussia,andIlove
RussiansFormerUSAmbassadortoRussia
MichaelMcFaulspeakstoMeduza
19:25,15APRIL2016 MEDUZA

MichaelMcFaul,aformeradvisortoPresidentBarackObama,is
consideredoneofthechiefauthorsofthefamousResetattempted
inUS-Russianrelations.From2012to2014,McFaulwastheUS
ambassadortoRussia.AfterleavingMoscow,heleftthediplomatic
serviceandreturnedtoteachingpoliticalscienceatStanford
University.AmbassadorMcFaulrecentlysatdown
withMeduza'sIlyaKrasilshchiktodiscusstheconflictsthatdivide
RussiaandtheUStoday,howthetwocountries'leadersshould
structurerelations,andwhyAmericasuffersfromashortageof
expertsspecializinginRussia.

Thepasttwoweeks,travelingbetweenuniversitiesintheUS,I've
heardroughlythesamethingeverywhere:there'sanenormous
problemwithAmericanspecialistsonRussia.Theleadingexpertsare
thestill-livingSovietologistswhosuddenlyfindthemselvesneeded
again.Doyoufindthistobethecase?

It'smorecomplexthanthat.There'sgoodandthere'sbad.Ontheonehand,
inacademia,aftertheendoftheColdWar,therewasarenaissanceinthe
studyofRussia,becauseforthefirsttimeeveryoucouldstudyRussialikea
normalcountry.Youcouldgothere.Youcouldtalktopeople.Youcoulddo
surveydataonpublicopinion.Youcouldwriteaboutelections.Iwrote
manyarticlesandonebookaboutRussianelections,whereweusedthe
samemethodsthatweusetostudyAmericanelections.
AndIwouldsaythatperiodwasagreatgrowthtimeforacademics
interestedinRussia,andthat'smygeneration(peopleyoungerthantheCold-
Wargeneration,butnotthenewgenerationsomewhereinbetween).

Butthentwoorthreethingshappenedthathavecreatedthisproblem,orthis
crisis[inthefieldofRussianstudies].Oneisthat,inAmericansocial
sciences(economics,politicalscienceI'minthedepartmentofpolitical
sciencehere[atStanford]),there'satrendawayfromstudyingonecountry.
SoifyoulookatthesuperstarsinpoliticalscienceinAmerica,they'renot
specialistsonRussiaorChinaorCanadaorFrancethey'respecialistson
generaltrends:therelationshipbetweendemocracyanddevelopment,and
soon.Theyusestatisticaldatatocomparelotsofcountries.Atmy
departmenthereatStanford,too,thesescholarsarethestars.

That'swherethetrendsareforpoliticalscience:they'renotforpeoplethat
knowindividualcountries,likeme.So,ifyoulookaroundthemajor
universitiesinAmerica,you'llfindfewerandfewerRussiaspecialists,and
thatmeanswedon'tteachgraduatestudentsorMaster'sstudentsor
undergraduatesaboutRussia.Weteachthemaboutmoregeneraltrends.And
thathasledtoafallingoffofstudentsespeciallyyoung,PhDstudentswho
thenbecomeprofessorswhotrytokeepRussianstudiesalive.

Oneotherthingthathashappenedwhatisanothertrendisthatthere's
beenanexplosionofthinktanksinWashington.Youprobablynoticedthem
inWashington,right?

Yes,they'reeverywhere.

They'reeverywhere!

ThegoodnewsaboutthatisthattherearespecialistsonRussiawhocanget
jobsinthosethinktanks,whocouldnevergetajobinauniversity.Thebad
news,inmyopinion,isthatthere'snotmuchqualitycontrol.Anybodycan
say,I'maRussiaspecialist,andthenappearonTV,andwriteablog.
There'snodifferencebetweenaprofessoratHarvardandadirectorofa
thinktankinWashingtoninthenoisethatistheexperts.

AndIknowmycolleaguesinacademia.Yousee,I'mveryrare.Igoback
andforth.Therearen'tmanypeoplewhowereingovernmentandalso
politicalscienceprofessors.Thereareveryfewofus(likethreeorfourin
thewholecountry).Ithinkthat'sledtoadeteriorationofanalysisofRussia.

Thegoodnewsisthatpeoplecanadapt,andinstitutescanadapt.Istarteda
programon[Russia]recently,andjustlikethat[snapsfingers]wehadlots
ofstudentinterestinthingsrelatedtoRussiaandEurope.Ithinkit's
incumbentonpeoplelikemetohelpbringRussianstudiesbacktothe
university.BecauseImyselfhavenottaughtacourseonRussiafor15years.
Ihaven'tevenbeenteachingaboutRussiaI'vebeenteachingabout
democratization,USforeignpolicy,democracydevelopment,andruleof
law.ThosearethecoursesI'vebeenteaching.I'vedecidedthatnextyearI'm
goingtogobacktoteachingRussia.

Butyou'reinStanfordandallthesethinktanksareinWashington,DC.
Andthey'retherebecausetheywanttoinfluencepolicy.

That'sright.
PresidentDmitryMedvedevduringhisvisittotheUSin2010.
Photo:DmitryAstakhov/TASS/Scanpix

I'vebeentoldthatnobodyintheUnitedStatesisterriblyinterestedin
gettinginvolvedwithRussia,butit'stheoppositewithChinaandthe
MiddleEast.TherewillalwaysbebusinesstodowithChina,andthe
MiddleEastwillalwaysbeamess.ButwhenitcomestoRussia,you
can'talwaysdobusiness,andit'snotawfulenoughallthetimeto
guaranteeafuture,intermsofacareer.

Ithinkthat'strue.Tome,it'stragic.Tome,ifyougobackjustseveralyears,
whentherewerenewopportunities,andtherewasapushtohavemore
contactwithRussia.PresidentMedvedevcametoStanford.Hespokehere
in2010,andwasgreetedbythousandsofpeople.Hemetwithourstudents,
anditfeltlikethiswasgoingtobesomething.TherewasSiliconValley,
andtherewerecompaniesinRussia.Lotsofactivity.

Andnowthere'slotsofuncertainty,intermsofcareerpaths.You'reright.
AndsonowtheonlycareerpathwithguaranteedjobsecurityisintheUS
government,butthosejobsarenotinteresting,unlessyougetinatthe
highestlevels.AtaplacelikeStanford,andthisisoneofthemost
prestigiousuniversitiesinthecountryrightnow,whywouldyoudoallthat,
whenyoucanjustwalkdownthestreetandgoworkforGoogle?Sowe're
competingtogetthosepeopleinterestedinRussia-relatedjobs.It'sa
problem.

ButrightnowtheprobleminUS-Russianrelationsisn'taboutwhat
happensintheyearstocome,butwhathappensrightnow.DoestheUS
governmenthaveaproblemtodayfindingqualifiedareaexperts?

I'dsaytwothings:oneisthat,despitealltheproblems,inmyopinion(and
I'maverybiasedpersonhereIworkedforsevenyearsforObama,twoin
thecampaignandfiveinthegovernment)...Itwasmyview,whenIwasin
thegovernment,that,intheseniorpositionsdealingwithRussia,wehad
tremendousexpertise.

OveratthePentagon,wehadCelesteWallander,whonowworksforthe
presidentattheWhiteHouse.(She'saformerHarvardprofessor.)Atthe
StateDepartment,atmylevel,wehadalotofstrongpeople.WhenI
workedattheembassy,myseniorstaff(keywordsenior)werefirstrate.
Mypoliticalofficer,forinstance,wasaguynamedHowardSolomon.(He
worksinLithuanianow.)HeknowsmoreaboutRussiathananybodyinthe
USknew20yearsagoor30yearsago.

Buthere'stheproblem:it'sthin,anditcaneasilychange.Andwe'vegot
electionscomingup.

Andwhatabouttheelections?WillUS-Russianrelationschangewitha
newUSpresident?IsRussiaanissueatallintheUSpresidential
election?

IsRussiaatheme?Atalowlevel,yes.Anditwillbecomeabiggertheme,
ifit'sClintonversusTrump,becauseTrumphassaidsomevery...unique
thingsaboutUS-Russianrelations.Andhe'ssaidsomeveryuniquethings
aboutourrelationshipwithouralliesinEuropethatwillcreateadebate.

He'ssaiduniquethingsaboutnearlyeverything,itseems...

Yes.I'mtryingtobediplomatic!I'madiplomat!

Infulldisclosure,IamaninformaladvisortoSecretaryClinton.She's
anotherofmyoldbosses.Wejusthostedher[atStanford]lastweek.Ihave
aprettygoodsenseofherpositionsonRussiainfact,averygoodsense.
Bytheway,afterIintroducedher,shesaidthankyouandsoon,andthenI
mentionedsomethingaboutourlasttriptogether,whichwastoVladivostok.
Andshesaid,makingeveryonelaugh,WhathappensinVladivostok,stays
inVladivostok.

BecauseofTrump'spositions,you'regoingtohaveadebateabouthowto
dealwithPutin.You'regoingtohaveadebateabouttheNATOalliance.
Andyou'regoingtohaveadebateaboutUkraine.
Traditionally,foreignpolicyisn'timportantatallinAmericanpolitics.
Whenitis,it'susuallynotaboutRussia.But,asitwasin2008,whenI
workedonthatcampaignwithPresidentObama,whenthere'sabigeventin
Russia...Backthen,itwastheRussian-Georgianwar.Thistime,itwillbe
RussianinterventioninUkraine.ThereisagroupofvotersinAmericawho
carealotaboutRussianpolicy.TherearepeopleofEastEuropeandescent:
Latvians,Lithuanians,Poles.

Howmanypeoplearewetalkingabout?

Itdependsonwhichstate.RememberourElectoralCollegeiseverything.
Buttheytendtobeconcentratedinwhatwecallswingstatesinstatesthat
sometimesgoDemocraticandsometimesgoRepublican.So,Pennsylvania,
Wisconsin,Michigan,Florida.Floridaisabigswingstate,andthereare
tensofthousandsofPolish-AmericansinFlorida.

AndtheycareaboutRussia?

AndtheycarealotaboutRussia(inthewaysthatyouwouldguess).And
therearelotsofUkrainian-AmericansinPennsylvania,forinstance.For
thosegroups,thisisgoingtobeanissuewhereTrumpversusClintonisa
starkcontrast,ifit'sthosetwo.Andthiscouldhaveaninfluenceonthe
election.

SoRussiabecomesmoreofanissueinaracebetweenthesetwo
candidates?

Correct.Butnotuntilthen.It'stooearlynow.
HillaryClintonandMichaelMcFaul.March2016.
Photo:CarolynKaster/AP/Scanpix

WhendiscussingRussiatodayintheUnitedStates,howpossibleisitto
avoidtheterminologyoftheColdWar?Itseemsdangerouswhentwo
countriescanonlytalkabouteachotherasenemies...

Asyoumightimagine,IgivealotoftalksonRussia,alloverthecountry.
Aboutonceeverytwoweeks,I'mgivingamajortalk.AndI'dsayacouple
ofthings.One,there'sabiginterestinRussia.I'msometimesspeakingto
800peopleinstateslikeMontana.Eighthundredpeoplecametomytalk
aboutRussiainMontana.IwasinnorthernFloridasixmonthsago.Nine
hundredpeopleshowedupforatalkonRussia.WhatImeantosayisthat
thereisinterestinthistopic.

Thesewerejustregularpeoplewhocametolistentoyou?

Yes,justregularpeople.Notexperts.

IalsoworkforanewsagencycalledNBCNews,soIcantelltheebband
flowofthenewsinterestbywhentheyaskmetobeonTV.AndIwouldsay
thatyourgeneralthesisisabsolutelyright.There'saverysimplifiedstory
thatgoesbacktotheColdWar.Mostpeoplefocusonitsoutcome,andwhen
IgivemytalksI'veseenthis.

Butthere'sabiggerdebateaboutwho'satfault.AndIthinkyou'dbe
surprisedespeciallyatuniversitycampusesthatthequestionismore
contestedamongelites,especiallyliberalelitesinAmerica.Andthat'sfine.
Ihavemyownverystrongviewsonthat,personally.AndI'mactually
writingabookaboutit,soIhavemyownargument.

ButthebiggestmessageIalwayshave,inallofmyspeechesandwhenI'm
onTV,aswell,istofightthestereotypesaboutRussiaandRussians.The
firstthingIsayisthatyou'renotallowedinmyclassormylecturestosay
thingslike,RussiathinksthisorRussiathinksweshould...I'venever
metMr.Russia.HaveyoumetMr.Russia?I'venevermetthatguy,oraMs.
Russia.[Laughs.]

There'snooneviewinRussia.Theremaybemorepopularviews,butit'sa
muchmorecomplexsocietythanIwouldsaymoreAmericansand
Europeansunderstand.It'smuchmorenuanced.Andeventhewaythe
regimeMr.Putinandhisregimedealswithsocietyismuchmore
complex.[Justlookat]howtheydealwithyou[Meduza]!MostAmericans
areshockedthatMeduzaexists.Andthatyou'renotarrestedwhenyouflyto
Moscow.

Yes,I'veheardthismanytimesfromAmericans.

Sothat'sinteresting,right?ThatmeansRussiaisnotexactlylikepeople
thinkitis.

AndwhatarethechancesofimprovingrelationsbetweenRussiaand
theUS?Itseemslikebothpresidentshavegivenupononeanother.

I'dsaythreethings.Theconflictsarereal.Andthey'renotjustbasedon
personalitydifferencesbetweenPutinandObama,orsomethinglikethat.
It'sbecauseit'saviewsharedbyeveryoneintheObamaadministrationand
mostAmericanforeignpolicyelitesthatRussiaannexedterritoryinUkraine
andthenfomentedthisproxywar[intheDonbas],andthatviolatestherules
oftheinternationalsystem.

I'vemetlotsofRussianswhosay,Canwejustgetoverthis,andgetback
todoingbusiness?Andthatfundamentalconflictwillnotgoawayanytime
soon,inmyopinion.

ThesecondthingI'dsayisthatI'veworkedwithPutin,I'vebeeninmany
meetingswithPutin,andhefundamentallythinksoftheUnitedStatesasa
competitorandanenemy.That'snotgoingtochange.He'shadthatviewfor
alongtime.Ifirstmethimin1991.

1991?Andhewassayingthesamething?

Well,Ididn'tknowhimaswellthen.Letmejustspeakabouthimas
president.I'veseenhimtalkwithObamaabouttheseissues,andhe'sgotthat
viewandthat'snotgoingtochange.

Imethimactuallythrough[formerSt.PetersburgMayorAnatoly]Sobchak.
ItwasaprogramIwasdoingwithSobchak,andPutinwasinchargeof
foreigncontactsforSobchak.

VladimirPutinandAnatolySobchakin1993.
Photo:MikhailRazuvaev/Kommersant

DoyourememberanythingaboutPutinspecificallyfromthisperiod?

Notmuch.Hedidn'tmakeabigimpression.Hisdeputymadeabigger
impressiononme.IgorSechin.ImetSechinbackthen,too.Hewasvery
friendly.HewasoneofthefirstguysImetwhoopenlytoldmethatthey
workedforSovietintelligencethiswasstillintheSovietUnion.(This
wasin1991beforethecollapse.)Igottoknowhim[Sechin]prettywell.
WebothspeakPortuguese.

YoutalkedinPortuguese?

Alittlebit.ButtherearetwomorethingsIwanttosay:oneisthatwecan
agreetodisagreeononesetofissues,andcooperateinasmallerspaceon
otherissues.AndIthinkthat'swhatObamaisdoing.Andthat'swhatthe
nextpresidentshoulddo,butwithnoillusionsthatcooperationinSyriais
goingtoleadtoanotherReset.Ithinkthat'snaive,andthat'snotgoingto
happen.IwastheauthoroftheReset.I'mtoblame.

Whyareyoutoblame?

Imeanthatmanycriticsblameme,sayingweweretheoneswhodidthis
[attemptedtheReset],anditwasamistake.Idon'tagreewiththis.I'm
writingabookrightnowabouthowwewererighttohavedonewhatwe
did.It'scalledTheReset.

ThelastthingI'llsayisthat,evenwhenthereisdisagreementaboutthese
otherthings,wecannotisolateRussians.I'mnotsayingRussia[thecountry]
I'msayingRussians[thepeople].Tome,that'snotgoodforourinterests.I
don'tthinkit'sgoodforRussia'sinterests,andsowehavetomakesurethat
wetrytokeepbordersopen,keepuniversitiesopen,andkeepexchanges
going...

Butisn'tthereadangerthatyouisolateRussianswhenyouisolate
Russia?Technically,ourowngovernmentisisolatingus,butit'sin
responsetoRussia'sinternationalisolation.

AndweneedtomakesurethatRussiansunderstandthatit'stheir
governmentdoingthat,notus.Ihavenoproblemwithyouatallcriticizing
mypresident.Knockyourselfout.I'vehearditall.Iusedtobethe
ambassador,right?

Butwhatyoucan'tdoissay,Becauseyourpresidentwassuchanidioton
Syria,I'mnotgoingtogotoStanford.That'scrazy.It'scrazy.Justlikefor
me,IwasverycriticaloflotsofpoliciesthatthePutingovernmentdid,butI
loveRussia.AndIloveRussians.Andyoucan'tmakemeouttobeanti-
RussianjustbecauseofwhatIsaidaboutSyria.Andthat'sthethingthatI
thinkwehavetofightagainst.

ButdoyouthinktheUSgovernmentshouldworktoisolateRussiafrom
theworld?TheRussiathat'sresponsibleforannexingCrimea?

Notisolate,butthereneedtobeconsequencesforbadbehavior.So,when
RussiaannexedCrimea,Ithinkitwas100percentrighttodosanctions.If
sanctionsareisolatingRussiangovernmentofficials,welltheyshouldthink
aboutthatthenexttimetheythinkaboutannexingterritory.And,bytheway,
theyare!Ithinksanctionshavebeenincrediblyeffective.Absolutely.

RegardingCrimea,theUShasstatedthatannexingpartofanother
countrywillresultinconsequences.ButMoscowrespondsthatRussia
isn'ttheonlystatethatchangestheruleshere,andtheKremlinpoints,
ofcourse,toIraqandAmerica'scampaignthere.Buttherewereno
sanctionsagainsttheUSoritscoalition.HowshouldtheUnitedStates
handlethisperceptioninRussia?

Iwouldsaytwothings.OneisthattheUnitedStatesactuallypaidaterrible
priceforinvadingIraq.ThousandsofAmericansdied,tensofthousandsof
Iraqisdied,wespentalotofmoneythere,andweachievedverylittle
results.Andwealienatedlotsofouralliesduringthattime.Wereformal
economicsanctionsputinplaceagainstus?No.Butdidwepayaterrible
priceforthat?Myanswerisyes.

ThesecondthingIwouldsayisthatwehavethisphraseinEnglish:two
wrongsdon'tmakearight.Soifyoustealmybicycletoday,doesthatgive
mearighttostealyourbicycletomorrow?That'sastrangelogic.Right?If
youthoughtIraqwaswrong,thenyoushouldthinkthesekindsofunilateral
usesofforcearealsowrong.IfyouthinkKrymnash[Crimeaisours]
wasright,thenyouhavetosay,Oh,well,theIraqwarthatwasfine.But
peopledon'tsaythat.Theysay,Okay,wellwhatabout....It'scalled
whataboutism.WellwhataboutIraq?WellwhataboutSyria?Whatabout
thisandwhataboutthat?

Mypointisthattwowrongsdon'tmakearight.Ifyouwereforthewarin
Iraq,oryou'reforSyria,orforKosovo,andmoredirectlytoRussia
(becausethoseanalogiesarealittlebitfalse,inmyview)the[analogy]
that'sclosesttoRussiaisifyouwereforChechenindependence.People
[there]wantedindependence.IfyouwereforChechenindependence,thenI
canunderstandyourenthusiasmforCrimeajoining.Butifyouwereagainst
Chechenindependence,eventhoughthemajorityofthepeoplewantedto
leave[theRussianFederation],youcan'tbeforannexation.That'sjust
logicallyinconsistent.

I'vespentagreatdealoftimelookingatPutin'sspeeches.Idoitfora
living,butImeanaboutCrimea[specifically].Idon'trememberaspeech
before2014whereMr.Putinsaidit'sagreatinjusticethatKhrushchevgave
awayCrimea,andWeneedthisback.AndIcan'trecallaspeechwhere
hesaid,DoyouknowthattheethnicRussiansinCrimeaarebeing
discriminatedagainst?They'rebeingkilled.It'sveryunstableandvery
uncertainthere,andwehavetodefendthem.Ifsomebodyhadsaidthat
before2014,thatwouldbealittlemoreinteresting.Butthefactthatit'sall
saidafterwardssuggeststomethatthisisreallyaboutwhathappenedin
Maidan,andnotaboutCrimea.

WhataboutRussiaafterPutin?It'shardtoimagineanyfutureRussian
presidentwhowouldgiveCrimeaback.Itwouldbepoliticalsuicide.So
howdoestheWestandtheUSdealwiththenextRussianpresident,
evenifhe'sdemocraticandmuchbetter?

Idon'tknowtheanswertothatquestion.

Butthisistherealityinfiveortenyears.

MypredictionisthatitwillbethepolicyoftheUnitedStates,whetherit'sa
DemocratorRepublicanpresident,fordecadestocome,toneverrecognize
theannexationofCrimea.Toholdontothefalseillusionthatthat[position]
mightchangewouldbemisguidedpolicy.

Atthesametime,Icanimagineascenariowhereprogressonotherfronts
wouldleadto...iftherewereatrue,democratizingmomentinRussia,that
thatwouldbeembraced.WhatIworryaboutisthatwewon'trecognize
thosemomentsbecausethere'ssuchlittlefaithinAmericarightnowthat
therecanbepositivechangeinRussiaatall.Iworryaboutthis.Iworry
aboutisolationism.

Iworryaboutpeoplejustcheckingoutandjustthinkingthatthere'snothing
goodthatcanbedonethere.Let'sjuststopthinkingaboutRussia.That,to
me,istherealtendencyrightnow.It'snotconfrontation.Sometimes,whenI
speaktoRussians,theythinkthatAmericansgetupeverymorningandall
wedoisthinkaboutChtodelat'sRossiei?(Whatdowedowith
Russia?)ThatwewonderwhatshouldwedotoweakenRussia?That's
whatIworryabout.Iworryaboutindifference.Iworryaboutpeoplenot
caring,thinkingRussiadoesn'tmatter.

Russiaisisolatingitself.Lookatittoday.Wejusthadalmosteverymajor
leaderontheplanetinWashington[forthefourthNuclearSecuritySummit].
Putin'snotthere.Hedecidednottocome.Iworrythatpeoplewillbeginto
thinkaboutRussiaasnotbeingevenimportanttoengage.Andthatwouldbe
atragedyforRussiaandatragedyfortheUnitedStates.

So,ontheonehand,wehaveRussiaignoringimportantinternational
meetings,andontheotherhandwehaveSyria,whereMoscowhas
madeitabundantlyclearthatthiscampaignwaspartofbringingRussia
backtoglobalpolitics.Whytheparadox?

Ithinkthat'sthewrongwaytothinkofSyria.That'swhatthegovernment
sells,right?ButIhaveadifferentview.IthinkPutinhasbeenquite
successfulinhispolicyinSyria.Ithinkweshouldacknowledgethatthat
heachievedhisobjective.AndhisobjectivewastostrengthenAssad,and
he'sdonethat.HisobjectivewasnottodefeatISIS,despitewhatever
propagandahasbeensaid.It'sasclearasdaythatthatwasnothisobjective.
MostoftheattackswerenotagainstISIStheywereagainstothergroups
there.Butweshouldgivehimcreditthatheachievedhisobjective.

2016NuclearSecuritySummitinWashington,DC.
Photo:SeanKilpatrick/TheCanadianPress/PAImages/Scanpix

Butisn'tAssadfightingISIS,too?

IntermsoffightingISIS,theUnitedStatesandthecoalitionarefightingISIS
alotmorethanMr.Assad.Now,don'tgetmewrong:it'sveryrational.I
thinkit'sasmartpolicytosaynowthatAssadneedstobepartofthe
negotiations,sowecanhaveacoalitiongovernmenttodealwithISIS.
That's[Russia's]strategy.Butnobody(atleastamongthepeopleIknow,
whoaredealingwiththeRussians,andIknowmanypeople)isthinking,
Oh!Isn'titgreatthatRussiaisnowagreatactorinthewar!It'smorelike
Russiaputaguntoourheadandthey'veachievedthisresult,andwehaveto
dealwiththem.

Soyou'renotcomingintotheinternationalcommunityonSyriaasa
respectedpartnerPutiniscominginasanecessarypartner.It'sastrategy.I
getit.Youcanbeatoughguy.Bulliesgetalotofattention.Toughguysgeta
lotofattention,butitdoesn'tmeanreintegration.Idon'tthinkanybodyhas
changedtheirviewsaboutMr.PutinasaresultofSyria.

SotheUS-ledcoalitionisactuallybombingISIS,butpartofthis
coalitionisTurkey,whichweknowhasbombedtheKurds.Erdoanisa
toughguy,too.He'sabully,too.SowhyishepartofAmerica's
coalition?

Erdoanisverycomplicated.You'reexactlyright.Ontheonehand,wehave
similarobjectives.Youknow:theenemyofmyenemyismyfriend.Buton
someveryparticularissues,wehaveradicaldifferenceswithMr.Erdoan.
HejustsaidthatinhisspeechyesterdayinWashingtonabouthowwetotally
disagreeabouttheroleoftheKurdsinSyria.

AndTurkeyhasanopenborderwithISIS.

Butit'sanillustrationofmypoint:thebullythatisErdoanwehaveto
dealwithhimbecauseofthenatureofthecrisis.Butnobodyisrespecting
himforwhatheisdoing.HejustcametoWashingtonandthepresidentof
theUnitedStatesdidn'tevenmeetwithhim.

You'vepointedoutthetensionbetweenhavingcommoninterestsbutmaybe
notcommonvalues.Andthathappensalotindiplomacy.

RussiansoldiersatPalmyra,Syria.April2016.
Photo:ValerySharifulin/TASS/Scanpix

Soyou'velaidoutaverypragmaticpositionregardingTurkey.Withthe
USandothercountries,itseemstherearetwogeneralstrategies:the
policyofpragmatism,whereyoucooperatewithnationswhenit'sin
yourcurrentinterests,andthepolicyofwe'respreadingdemocracy
throughouttheworld.Howdoyoureconcilethesetwostrategies?

Iwouldsayafewthings.Firstofall,itistruethattheUnitedStates,over
ourhistory,fromtheverybeginning,hashadalliesthatareautocratic
regimes.Ourfirstremember,goingallthewaybacktothebeginningofthe
AmericanRepublicourmostimportantallywasFrance,amonarchyanda
dictatorship.Theyarethereasonwhywe'refree.WithouttheFrench,we
wouldhavelostthewaragainsttheBritish.And,justsoyouknow,ifyougo
backandyoulookatthathistory,thentherewastheFrenchRevolution,and
therewasadebateinWashingtonaboutwhetherwesupportouralliesand
ourinterestsorthesepeoplewhowanteddemocracy.Sothetensiongoesall
thewaybacktothebeginning.
ThesecondthingIwouldsayisthatourmostenduringallieshavealways
beendemocracies.IfyouthinkaboutAmerica'sclosestpartnersinthe
world,they'redemocracies.Alloftheautocracieswithwhichwe'vehad
alliancerelationshipshavealwaysbeentense.Andtheyonlybecomestable
whenthosecountriesmaketransitions.Throughoutourhistory.

Andthere'ssomethingI'vewrittenaboutcalledthefalsepromiseof
autocraticstability,whichistosaythatautocraciescanbeouralliesbut
they'reneverourlong-termalliesbecauseautocracieshavetheproblemof
remaininginpower.SoIranwasanincrediblycloseallyoftheUnited
StatesfordecadesundertheShah.Andthen,oneyear,theybecameour
worstenemy.Thatonlyhappensinautocracies.Itdoesn'thappenwith
democraticalliances.

ThefourththingIwouldsayaboutthistensionyou'vehighlightedisthatit's
real.There'snosolution.Ourcriticssay,Wellyouneedtobepure,one
wayortheother.AndIwouldjustsaythat,[with]alladministrations
(Obama,Bush,Clinton,andallthewaybacktotheFrenchRevolution),this
isatensionbetweeninterestsandvalues.Thewaypresidentsresolveitis
theysaywehaveshort-termintereststhatwehavetopursue,andwealso
needtopursueourlong-termvaluesourlong-terminterestinsupporting
values.AndIagreewiththat.Ithinkthat'ssmart.WhatIthinkisnotsmartis
theuseofmilitaryforcetopromotedemocracy.Itjustdoesn'twork.Itnever
has.Andweshouldgetoutofthatbusiness.

IlyaKrasilshchik

PaloAlto,California
 From: pmstronski@gmail.com
Senttime: 04/16/201610:50:09AM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: Re:HeLovesRussia.....

Whatanass!

SentfrommyiPhone

OnApr16,2016,at04:40,RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>wrote:

http://meduza.io/en/feature/2016/04/16/but-i-love-russia-and-i-love-russians

Photo:DmitryKostyukov/TheNewYorkTimes/Scanpix

ButIloveRussia,andIlove
RussiansFormerUSAmbassadortoRussia
MichaelMcFaulspeakstoMeduza
19:25,15APRIL2016 MEDUZA

MichaelMcFaul,aformeradvisortoPresidentBarackObama,is
consideredoneofthechiefauthorsofthefamousResetattempted
inUS-Russianrelations.From2012to2014,McFaulwastheUS
ambassadortoRussia.AfterleavingMoscow,heleftthediplomatic
serviceandreturnedtoteachingpoliticalscienceatStanford
University.AmbassadorMcFaulrecentlysatdown
withMeduza'sIlyaKrasilshchiktodiscusstheconflictsthatdivide
RussiaandtheUStoday,howthetwocountries'leadersshould
structurerelations,andwhyAmericasuffersfromashortageof
expertsspecializinginRussia.

Thepasttwoweeks,travelingbetweenuniversitiesintheUS,I've
heardroughlythesamethingeverywhere:there'sanenormous
problemwithAmericanspecialistsonRussia.Theleadingexpertsare
thestill-livingSovietologistswhosuddenlyfindthemselvesneeded
again.Doyoufindthistobethecase?

It'smorecomplexthanthat.There'sgoodandthere'sbad.Ontheonehand,
inacademia,aftertheendoftheColdWar,therewasarenaissanceinthe
studyofRussia,becauseforthefirsttimeeveryoucouldstudyRussialikea
normalcountry.Youcouldgothere.Youcouldtalktopeople.Youcoulddo
surveydataonpublicopinion.Youcouldwriteaboutelections.Iwrote
manyarticlesandonebookaboutRussianelections,whereweusedthe
samemethodsthatweusetostudyAmericanelections.
AndIwouldsaythatperiodwasagreatgrowthtimeforacademics
interestedinRussia,andthat'smygeneration(peopleyoungerthantheCold-
Wargeneration,butnotthenewgenerationsomewhereinbetween).

Butthentwoorthreethingshappenedthathavecreatedthisproblem,orthis
crisis[inthefieldofRussianstudies].Oneisthat,inAmericansocial
sciences(economics,politicalscienceI'minthedepartmentofpolitical
sciencehere[atStanford]),there'satrendawayfromstudyingonecountry.
SoifyoulookatthesuperstarsinpoliticalscienceinAmerica,they'renot
specialistsonRussiaorChinaorCanadaorFrancethey'respecialistson
generaltrends:therelationshipbetweendemocracyanddevelopment,and
soon.Theyusestatisticaldatatocomparelotsofcountries.Atmy
departmenthereatStanford,too,thesescholarsarethestars.

That'swherethetrendsareforpoliticalscience:they'renotforpeoplethat
knowindividualcountries,likeme.So,ifyoulookaroundthemajor
universitiesinAmerica,you'llfindfewerandfewerRussiaspecialists,and
thatmeanswedon'tteachgraduatestudentsorMaster'sstudentsor
undergraduatesaboutRussia.Weteachthemaboutmoregeneraltrends.And
thathasledtoafallingoffofstudentsespeciallyyoung,PhDstudentswho
thenbecomeprofessorswhotrytokeepRussianstudiesalive.

Oneotherthingthathashappenedwhatisanothertrendisthatthere's
beenanexplosionofthinktanksinWashington.Youprobablynoticedthem
inWashington,right?

Yes,they'reeverywhere.

They'reeverywhere!

ThegoodnewsaboutthatisthattherearespecialistsonRussiawhocanget
jobsinthosethinktanks,whocouldnevergetajobinauniversity.Thebad
news,inmyopinion,isthatthere'snotmuchqualitycontrol.Anybodycan
say,I'maRussiaspecialist,andthenappearonTV,andwriteablog.
There'snodifferencebetweenaprofessoratHarvardandadirectorofa
thinktankinWashingtoninthenoisethatistheexperts.

AndIknowmycolleaguesinacademia.Yousee,I'mveryrare.Igoback
andforth.Therearen'tmanypeoplewhowereingovernmentandalso
politicalscienceprofessors.Thereareveryfewofus(likethreeorfourin
thewholecountry).Ithinkthat'sledtoadeteriorationofanalysisofRussia.

Thegoodnewsisthatpeoplecanadapt,andinstitutescanadapt.Istarteda
programon[Russia]recently,andjustlikethat[snapsfingers]wehadlots
ofstudentinterestinthingsrelatedtoRussiaandEurope.Ithinkit's
incumbentonpeoplelikemetohelpbringRussianstudiesbacktothe
university.BecauseImyselfhavenottaughtacourseonRussiafor15years.
Ihaven'tevenbeenteachingaboutRussiaI'vebeenteachingabout
democratization,USforeignpolicy,democracydevelopment,andruleof
law.ThosearethecoursesI'vebeenteaching.I'vedecidedthatnextyearI'm
goingtogobacktoteachingRussia.

Butyou'reinStanfordandallthesethinktanksareinWashington,DC.
Andthey'retherebecausetheywanttoinfluencepolicy.

That'sright.
PresidentDmitryMedvedevduringhisvisittotheUSin2010.
Photo:DmitryAstakhov/TASS/Scanpix

I'vebeentoldthatnobodyintheUnitedStatesisterriblyinterestedin
gettinginvolvedwithRussia,butit'stheoppositewithChinaandthe
MiddleEast.TherewillalwaysbebusinesstodowithChina,andthe
MiddleEastwillalwaysbeamess.ButwhenitcomestoRussia,you
can'talwaysdobusiness,andit'snotawfulenoughallthetimeto
guaranteeafuture,intermsofacareer.

Ithinkthat'strue.Tome,it'stragic.Tome,ifyougobackjustseveralyears,
whentherewerenewopportunities,andtherewasapushtohavemore
contactwithRussia.PresidentMedvedevcametoStanford.Hespokehere
in2010,andwasgreetedbythousandsofpeople.Hemetwithourstudents,
anditfeltlikethiswasgoingtobesomething.TherewasSiliconValley,
andtherewerecompaniesinRussia.Lotsofactivity.

Andnowthere'slotsofuncertainty,intermsofcareerpaths.You'reright.
AndsonowtheonlycareerpathwithguaranteedjobsecurityisintheUS
government,butthosejobsarenotinteresting,unlessyougetinatthe
highestlevels.AtaplacelikeStanford,andthisisoneofthemost
prestigiousuniversitiesinthecountryrightnow,whywouldyoudoallthat,
whenyoucanjustwalkdownthestreetandgoworkforGoogle?Sowe're
competingtogetthosepeopleinterestedinRussia-relatedjobs.It'sa
problem.

ButrightnowtheprobleminUS-Russianrelationsisn'taboutwhat
happensintheyearstocome,butwhathappensrightnow.DoestheUS
governmenthaveaproblemtodayfindingqualifiedareaexperts?

I'dsaytwothings:oneisthat,despitealltheproblems,inmyopinion(and
I'maverybiasedpersonhereIworkedforsevenyearsforObama,twoin
thecampaignandfiveinthegovernment)...Itwasmyview,whenIwasin
thegovernment,that,intheseniorpositionsdealingwithRussia,wehad
tremendousexpertise.

OveratthePentagon,wehadCelesteWallander,whonowworksforthe
presidentattheWhiteHouse.(She'saformerHarvardprofessor.)Atthe
StateDepartment,atmylevel,wehadalotofstrongpeople.WhenI
workedattheembassy,myseniorstaff(keywordsenior)werefirstrate.
Mypoliticalofficer,forinstance,wasaguynamedHowardSolomon.(He
worksinLithuanianow.)HeknowsmoreaboutRussiathananybodyinthe
USknew20yearsagoor30yearsago.

Buthere'stheproblem:it'sthin,anditcaneasilychange.Andwe'vegot
electionscomingup.

Andwhatabouttheelections?WillUS-Russianrelationschangewitha
newUSpresident?IsRussiaanissueatallintheUSpresidential
election?

IsRussiaatheme?Atalowlevel,yes.Anditwillbecomeabiggertheme,
ifit'sClintonversusTrump,becauseTrumphassaidsomevery...unique
thingsaboutUS-Russianrelations.Andhe'ssaidsomeveryuniquethings
aboutourrelationshipwithouralliesinEuropethatwillcreateadebate.

He'ssaiduniquethingsaboutnearlyeverything,itseems...

Yes.I'mtryingtobediplomatic!I'madiplomat!

Infulldisclosure,IamaninformaladvisortoSecretaryClinton.She's
anotherofmyoldbosses.Wejusthostedher[atStanford]lastweek.Ihave
aprettygoodsenseofherpositionsonRussiainfact,averygoodsense.
Bytheway,afterIintroducedher,shesaidthankyouandsoon,andthenI
mentionedsomethingaboutourlasttriptogether,whichwastoVladivostok.
Andshesaid,makingeveryonelaugh,WhathappensinVladivostok,stays
inVladivostok.

BecauseofTrump'spositions,you'regoingtohaveadebateabouthowto
dealwithPutin.You'regoingtohaveadebateabouttheNATOalliance.
Andyou'regoingtohaveadebateaboutUkraine.
Traditionally,foreignpolicyisn'timportantatallinAmericanpolitics.
Whenitis,it'susuallynotaboutRussia.But,asitwasin2008,whenI
workedonthatcampaignwithPresidentObama,whenthere'sabigeventin
Russia...Backthen,itwastheRussian-Georgianwar.Thistime,itwillbe
RussianinterventioninUkraine.ThereisagroupofvotersinAmericawho
carealotaboutRussianpolicy.TherearepeopleofEastEuropeandescent:
Latvians,Lithuanians,Poles.

Howmanypeoplearewetalkingabout?

Itdependsonwhichstate.RememberourElectoralCollegeiseverything.
Buttheytendtobeconcentratedinwhatwecallswingstatesinstatesthat
sometimesgoDemocraticandsometimesgoRepublican.So,Pennsylvania,
Wisconsin,Michigan,Florida.Floridaisabigswingstate,andthereare
tensofthousandsofPolish-AmericansinFlorida.

AndtheycareaboutRussia?

AndtheycarealotaboutRussia(inthewaysthatyouwouldguess).And
therearelotsofUkrainian-AmericansinPennsylvania,forinstance.For
thosegroups,thisisgoingtobeanissuewhereTrumpversusClintonisa
starkcontrast,ifit'sthosetwo.Andthiscouldhaveaninfluenceonthe
election.

SoRussiabecomesmoreofanissueinaracebetweenthesetwo
candidates?

Correct.Butnotuntilthen.It'stooearlynow.
HillaryClintonandMichaelMcFaul.March2016.
Photo:CarolynKaster/AP/Scanpix

WhendiscussingRussiatodayintheUnitedStates,howpossibleisitto
avoidtheterminologyoftheColdWar?Itseemsdangerouswhentwo
countriescanonlytalkabouteachotherasenemies...

Asyoumightimagine,IgivealotoftalksonRussia,alloverthecountry.
Aboutonceeverytwoweeks,I'mgivingamajortalk.AndI'dsayacouple
ofthings.One,there'sabiginterestinRussia.I'msometimesspeakingto
800peopleinstateslikeMontana.Eighthundredpeoplecametomytalk
aboutRussiainMontana.IwasinnorthernFloridasixmonthsago.Nine
hundredpeopleshowedupforatalkonRussia.WhatImeantosayisthat
thereisinterestinthistopic.

Thesewerejustregularpeoplewhocametolistentoyou?

Yes,justregularpeople.Notexperts.

IalsoworkforanewsagencycalledNBCNews,soIcantelltheebband
flowofthenewsinterestbywhentheyaskmetobeonTV.AndIwouldsay
thatyourgeneralthesisisabsolutelyright.There'saverysimplifiedstory
thatgoesbacktotheColdWar.Mostpeoplefocusonitsoutcome,andwhen
IgivemytalksI'veseenthis.

Butthere'sabiggerdebateaboutwho'satfault.AndIthinkyou'dbe
surprisedespeciallyatuniversitycampusesthatthequestionismore
contestedamongelites,especiallyliberalelitesinAmerica.Andthat'sfine.
Ihavemyownverystrongviewsonthat,personally.AndI'mactually
writingabookaboutit,soIhavemyownargument.

ButthebiggestmessageIalwayshave,inallofmyspeechesandwhenI'm
onTV,aswell,istofightthestereotypesaboutRussiaandRussians.The
firstthingIsayisthatyou'renotallowedinmyclassormylecturestosay
thingslike,RussiathinksthisorRussiathinksweshould...I'venever
metMr.Russia.HaveyoumetMr.Russia?I'venevermetthatguy,oraMs.
Russia.[Laughs.]

There'snooneviewinRussia.Theremaybemorepopularviews,butit'sa
muchmorecomplexsocietythanIwouldsaymoreAmericansand
Europeansunderstand.It'smuchmorenuanced.Andeventhewaythe
regimeMr.Putinandhisregimedealswithsocietyismuchmore
complex.[Justlookat]howtheydealwithyou[Meduza]!MostAmericans
areshockedthatMeduzaexists.Andthatyou'renotarrestedwhenyouflyto
Moscow.

Yes,I'veheardthismanytimesfromAmericans.

Sothat'sinteresting,right?ThatmeansRussiaisnotexactlylikepeople
thinkitis.

AndwhatarethechancesofimprovingrelationsbetweenRussiaand
theUS?Itseemslikebothpresidentshavegivenupononeanother.

I'dsaythreethings.Theconflictsarereal.Andthey'renotjustbasedon
personalitydifferencesbetweenPutinandObama,orsomethinglikethat.
It'sbecauseit'saviewsharedbyeveryoneintheObamaadministrationand
mostAmericanforeignpolicyelitesthatRussiaannexedterritoryinUkraine
andthenfomentedthisproxywar[intheDonbas],andthatviolatestherules
oftheinternationalsystem.

I'vemetlotsofRussianswhosay,Canwejustgetoverthis,andgetback
todoingbusiness?Andthatfundamentalconflictwillnotgoawayanytime
soon,inmyopinion.

ThesecondthingI'dsayisthatI'veworkedwithPutin,I'vebeeninmany
meetingswithPutin,andhefundamentallythinksoftheUnitedStatesasa
competitorandanenemy.That'snotgoingtochange.He'shadthatviewfor
alongtime.Ifirstmethimin1991.

1991?Andhewassayingthesamething?

Well,Ididn'tknowhimaswellthen.Letmejustspeakabouthimas
president.I'veseenhimtalkwithObamaabouttheseissues,andhe'sgotthat
viewandthat'snotgoingtochange.

Imethimactuallythrough[formerSt.PetersburgMayorAnatoly]Sobchak.
ItwasaprogramIwasdoingwithSobchak,andPutinwasinchargeof
foreigncontactsforSobchak.

VladimirPutinandAnatolySobchakin1993.
Photo:MikhailRazuvaev/Kommersant

DoyourememberanythingaboutPutinspecificallyfromthisperiod?

Notmuch.Hedidn'tmakeabigimpression.Hisdeputymadeabigger
impressiononme.IgorSechin.ImetSechinbackthen,too.Hewasvery
friendly.HewasoneofthefirstguysImetwhoopenlytoldmethatthey
workedforSovietintelligencethiswasstillintheSovietUnion.(This
wasin1991beforethecollapse.)Igottoknowhim[Sechin]prettywell.
WebothspeakPortuguese.

YoutalkedinPortuguese?

Alittlebit.ButtherearetwomorethingsIwanttosay:oneisthatwecan
agreetodisagreeononesetofissues,andcooperateinasmallerspaceon
otherissues.AndIthinkthat'swhatObamaisdoing.Andthat'swhatthe
nextpresidentshoulddo,butwithnoillusionsthatcooperationinSyriais
goingtoleadtoanotherReset.Ithinkthat'snaive,andthat'snotgoingto
happen.IwastheauthoroftheReset.I'mtoblame.

Whyareyoutoblame?

Imeanthatmanycriticsblameme,sayingweweretheoneswhodidthis
[attemptedtheReset],anditwasamistake.Idon'tagreewiththis.I'm
writingabookrightnowabouthowwewererighttohavedonewhatwe
did.It'scalledTheReset.

ThelastthingI'llsayisthat,evenwhenthereisdisagreementaboutthese
otherthings,wecannotisolateRussians.I'mnotsayingRussia[thecountry]
I'msayingRussians[thepeople].Tome,that'snotgoodforourinterests.I
don'tthinkit'sgoodforRussia'sinterests,andsowehavetomakesurethat
wetrytokeepbordersopen,keepuniversitiesopen,andkeepexchanges
going...

Butisn'tthereadangerthatyouisolateRussianswhenyouisolate
Russia?Technically,ourowngovernmentisisolatingus,butit'sin
responsetoRussia'sinternationalisolation.

AndweneedtomakesurethatRussiansunderstandthatit'stheir
governmentdoingthat,notus.Ihavenoproblemwithyouatallcriticizing
mypresident.Knockyourselfout.I'vehearditall.Iusedtobethe
ambassador,right?

Butwhatyoucan'tdoissay,Becauseyourpresidentwassuchanidioton
Syria,I'mnotgoingtogotoStanford.That'scrazy.It'scrazy.Justlikefor
me,IwasverycriticaloflotsofpoliciesthatthePutingovernmentdid,butI
loveRussia.AndIloveRussians.Andyoucan'tmakemeouttobeanti-
RussianjustbecauseofwhatIsaidaboutSyria.Andthat'sthethingthatI
thinkwehavetofightagainst.

ButdoyouthinktheUSgovernmentshouldworktoisolateRussiafrom
theworld?TheRussiathat'sresponsibleforannexingCrimea?

Notisolate,butthereneedtobeconsequencesforbadbehavior.So,when
RussiaannexedCrimea,Ithinkitwas100percentrighttodosanctions.If
sanctionsareisolatingRussiangovernmentofficials,welltheyshouldthink
aboutthatthenexttimetheythinkaboutannexingterritory.And,bytheway,
theyare!Ithinksanctionshavebeenincrediblyeffective.Absolutely.

RegardingCrimea,theUShasstatedthatannexingpartofanother
countrywillresultinconsequences.ButMoscowrespondsthatRussia
isn'ttheonlystatethatchangestheruleshere,andtheKremlinpoints,
ofcourse,toIraqandAmerica'scampaignthere.Buttherewereno
sanctionsagainsttheUSoritscoalition.HowshouldtheUnitedStates
handlethisperceptioninRussia?

Iwouldsaytwothings.OneisthattheUnitedStatesactuallypaidaterrible
priceforinvadingIraq.ThousandsofAmericansdied,tensofthousandsof
Iraqisdied,wespentalotofmoneythere,andweachievedverylittle
results.Andwealienatedlotsofouralliesduringthattime.Wereformal
economicsanctionsputinplaceagainstus?No.Butdidwepayaterrible
priceforthat?Myanswerisyes.

ThesecondthingIwouldsayisthatwehavethisphraseinEnglish:two
wrongsdon'tmakearight.Soifyoustealmybicycletoday,doesthatgive
mearighttostealyourbicycletomorrow?That'sastrangelogic.Right?If
youthoughtIraqwaswrong,thenyoushouldthinkthesekindsofunilateral
usesofforcearealsowrong.IfyouthinkKrymnash[Crimeaisours]
wasright,thenyouhavetosay,Oh,well,theIraqwarthatwasfine.But
peopledon'tsaythat.Theysay,Okay,wellwhatabout....It'scalled
whataboutism.WellwhataboutIraq?WellwhataboutSyria?Whatabout
thisandwhataboutthat?

Mypointisthattwowrongsdon'tmakearight.Ifyouwereforthewarin
Iraq,oryou'reforSyria,orforKosovo,andmoredirectlytoRussia
(becausethoseanalogiesarealittlebitfalse,inmyview)the[analogy]
that'sclosesttoRussiaisifyouwereforChechenindependence.People
[there]wantedindependence.IfyouwereforChechenindependence,thenI
canunderstandyourenthusiasmforCrimeajoining.Butifyouwereagainst
Chechenindependence,eventhoughthemajorityofthepeoplewantedto
leave[theRussianFederation],youcan'tbeforannexation.That'sjust
logicallyinconsistent.

I'vespentagreatdealoftimelookingatPutin'sspeeches.Idoitfora
living,butImeanaboutCrimea[specifically].Idon'trememberaspeech
before2014whereMr.Putinsaidit'sagreatinjusticethatKhrushchevgave
awayCrimea,andWeneedthisback.AndIcan'trecallaspeechwhere
hesaid,DoyouknowthattheethnicRussiansinCrimeaarebeing
discriminatedagainst?They'rebeingkilled.It'sveryunstableandvery
uncertainthere,andwehavetodefendthem.Ifsomebodyhadsaidthat
before2014,thatwouldbealittlemoreinteresting.Butthefactthatit'sall
saidafterwardssuggeststomethatthisisreallyaboutwhathappenedin
Maidan,andnotaboutCrimea.

WhataboutRussiaafterPutin?It'shardtoimagineanyfutureRussian
presidentwhowouldgiveCrimeaback.Itwouldbepoliticalsuicide.So
howdoestheWestandtheUSdealwiththenextRussianpresident,
evenifhe'sdemocraticandmuchbetter?

Idon'tknowtheanswertothatquestion.

Butthisistherealityinfiveortenyears.

MypredictionisthatitwillbethepolicyoftheUnitedStates,whetherit'sa
DemocratorRepublicanpresident,fordecadestocome,toneverrecognize
theannexationofCrimea.Toholdontothefalseillusionthatthat[position]
mightchangewouldbemisguidedpolicy.

Atthesametime,Icanimagineascenariowhereprogressonotherfronts
wouldleadto...iftherewereatrue,democratizingmomentinRussia,that
thatwouldbeembraced.WhatIworryaboutisthatwewon'trecognize
thosemomentsbecausethere'ssuchlittlefaithinAmericarightnowthat
therecanbepositivechangeinRussiaatall.Iworryaboutthis.Iworry
aboutisolationism.

Iworryaboutpeoplejustcheckingoutandjustthinkingthatthere'snothing
goodthatcanbedonethere.Let'sjuststopthinkingaboutRussia.That,to
me,istherealtendencyrightnow.It'snotconfrontation.Sometimes,whenI
speaktoRussians,theythinkthatAmericansgetupeverymorningandall
wedoisthinkaboutChtodelat'sRossiei?(Whatdowedowith
Russia?)ThatwewonderwhatshouldwedotoweakenRussia?That's
whatIworryabout.Iworryaboutindifference.Iworryaboutpeoplenot
caring,thinkingRussiadoesn'tmatter.

Russiaisisolatingitself.Lookatittoday.Wejusthadalmosteverymajor
leaderontheplanetinWashington[forthefourthNuclearSecuritySummit].
Putin'snotthere.Hedecidednottocome.Iworrythatpeoplewillbeginto
thinkaboutRussiaasnotbeingevenimportanttoengage.Andthatwouldbe
atragedyforRussiaandatragedyfortheUnitedStates.

So,ontheonehand,wehaveRussiaignoringimportantinternational
meetings,andontheotherhandwehaveSyria,whereMoscowhas
madeitabundantlyclearthatthiscampaignwaspartofbringingRussia
backtoglobalpolitics.Whytheparadox?

Ithinkthat'sthewrongwaytothinkofSyria.That'swhatthegovernment
sells,right?ButIhaveadifferentview.IthinkPutinhasbeenquite
successfulinhispolicyinSyria.Ithinkweshouldacknowledgethatthat
heachievedhisobjective.AndhisobjectivewastostrengthenAssad,and
he'sdonethat.HisobjectivewasnottodefeatISIS,despitewhatever
propagandahasbeensaid.It'sasclearasdaythatthatwasnothisobjective.
MostoftheattackswerenotagainstISIStheywereagainstothergroups
there.Butweshouldgivehimcreditthatheachievedhisobjective.

2016NuclearSecuritySummitinWashington,DC.
Photo:SeanKilpatrick/TheCanadianPress/PAImages/Scanpix

Butisn'tAssadfightingISIS,too?

IntermsoffightingISIS,theUnitedStatesandthecoalitionarefightingISIS
alotmorethanMr.Assad.Now,don'tgetmewrong:it'sveryrational.I
thinkit'sasmartpolicytosaynowthatAssadneedstobepartofthe
negotiations,sowecanhaveacoalitiongovernmenttodealwithISIS.
That's[Russia's]strategy.Butnobody(atleastamongthepeopleIknow,
whoaredealingwiththeRussians,andIknowmanypeople)isthinking,
Oh!Isn'titgreatthatRussiaisnowagreatactorinthewar!It'smorelike
Russiaputaguntoourheadandthey'veachievedthisresult,andwehaveto
dealwiththem.

Soyou'renotcomingintotheinternationalcommunityonSyriaasa
respectedpartnerPutiniscominginasanecessarypartner.It'sastrategy.I
getit.Youcanbeatoughguy.Bulliesgetalotofattention.Toughguysgeta
lotofattention,butitdoesn'tmeanreintegration.Idon'tthinkanybodyhas
changedtheirviewsaboutMr.PutinasaresultofSyria.

SotheUS-ledcoalitionisactuallybombingISIS,butpartofthis
coalitionisTurkey,whichweknowhasbombedtheKurds.Erdoanisa
toughguy,too.He'sabully,too.SowhyishepartofAmerica's
coalition?

Erdoanisverycomplicated.You'reexactlyright.Ontheonehand,wehave
similarobjectives.Youknow:theenemyofmyenemyismyfriend.Buton
someveryparticularissues,wehaveradicaldifferenceswithMr.Erdoan.
HejustsaidthatinhisspeechyesterdayinWashingtonabouthowwetotally
disagreeabouttheroleoftheKurdsinSyria.

AndTurkeyhasanopenborderwithISIS.

Butit'sanillustrationofmypoint:thebullythatisErdoanwehaveto
dealwithhimbecauseofthenatureofthecrisis.Butnobodyisrespecting
himforwhatheisdoing.HejustcametoWashingtonandthepresidentof
theUnitedStatesdidn'tevenmeetwithhim.

You'vepointedoutthetensionbetweenhavingcommoninterestsbutmaybe
notcommonvalues.Andthathappensalotindiplomacy.

RussiansoldiersatPalmyra,Syria.April2016.
Photo:ValerySharifulin/TASS/Scanpix

Soyou'velaidoutaverypragmaticpositionregardingTurkey.Withthe
USandothercountries,itseemstherearetwogeneralstrategies:the
policyofpragmatism,whereyoucooperatewithnationswhenit'sin
yourcurrentinterests,andthepolicyofwe'respreadingdemocracy
throughouttheworld.Howdoyoureconcilethesetwostrategies?

Iwouldsayafewthings.Firstofall,itistruethattheUnitedStates,over
ourhistory,fromtheverybeginning,hashadalliesthatareautocratic
regimes.Ourfirstremember,goingallthewaybacktothebeginningofthe
AmericanRepublicourmostimportantallywasFrance,amonarchyanda
dictatorship.Theyarethereasonwhywe'refree.WithouttheFrench,we
wouldhavelostthewaragainsttheBritish.And,justsoyouknow,ifyougo
backandyoulookatthathistory,thentherewastheFrenchRevolution,and
therewasadebateinWashingtonaboutwhetherwesupportouralliesand
ourinterestsorthesepeoplewhowanteddemocracy.Sothetensiongoesall
thewaybacktothebeginning.
ThesecondthingIwouldsayisthatourmostenduringallieshavealways
beendemocracies.IfyouthinkaboutAmerica'sclosestpartnersinthe
world,they'redemocracies.Alloftheautocracieswithwhichwe'vehad
alliancerelationshipshavealwaysbeentense.Andtheyonlybecomestable
whenthosecountriesmaketransitions.Throughoutourhistory.

Andthere'ssomethingI'vewrittenaboutcalledthefalsepromiseof
autocraticstability,whichistosaythatautocraciescanbeouralliesbut
they'reneverourlong-termalliesbecauseautocracieshavetheproblemof
remaininginpower.SoIranwasanincrediblycloseallyoftheUnited
StatesfordecadesundertheShah.Andthen,oneyear,theybecameour
worstenemy.Thatonlyhappensinautocracies.Itdoesn'thappenwith
democraticalliances.

ThefourththingIwouldsayaboutthistensionyou'vehighlightedisthatit's
real.There'snosolution.Ourcriticssay,Wellyouneedtobepure,one
wayortheother.AndIwouldjustsaythat,[with]alladministrations
(Obama,Bush,Clinton,andallthewaybacktotheFrenchRevolution),this
isatensionbetweeninterestsandvalues.Thewaypresidentsresolveitis
theysaywehaveshort-termintereststhatwehavetopursue,andwealso
needtopursueourlong-termvaluesourlong-terminterestinsupporting
values.AndIagreewiththat.Ithinkthat'ssmart.WhatIthinkisnotsmartis
theuseofmilitaryforcetopromotedemocracy.Itjustdoesn'twork.Itnever
has.Andweshouldgetoutofthatbusiness.

IlyaKrasilshchik

PaloAlto,California
 From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 04/16/201604:56:09AM
To: DanielRussell<dan.55.russell@gmail.com>
Subject: Re:McFaul

http://cddrl.fsi.stanford.edu/publications/getting_russia_right

HistorianswillsomedaywritethatRussiare-enteredtheWesterncommunityofstatesasamarketdemocracyattheendofthe20th
century.Youwouldn'tthinkso,however,fromthevituperativeandpessimistictoneofmostcontemporarycommentaryintheUnitedStates
aboutRussiaandU.S.-Russianrelations.FocusingonluridaccountsofRussianmoneylaundering,cronyism,andwidespreadpolitical
andeconomicdisarray,politiciansandpunditshaveblastedtheClintonadministrationformishandlingacrucialstrategicrelationship
and"losing"Russia.

OnApr16,2016,at7:02AM,DanRussell<dan.55.russell@gmail.com>wrote:

oh,bob,there'slotsmore!

Dan

OnApr16,2016,at12:38,RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>wrote:

ThegratuitousshotattheembassystaffreallygratesImustsay.

OnApr16,2016,at6:27AM,DanRussell<dan.55.russell@gmail.com>wrote:

thanks.totallypredictable.

Dan

OnApr16,2016,at12:12,RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>wrote:
 From: Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 04/16/201608:52:09AM
To: DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>
Subject: InsideHillaryClintonsMassiveForeign-PolicyBrainTrust|ForeignPolicy

InsideHillaryClintonsMassiveForeign-PolicyBrainTrust

Everyday,inofficesacrossWashington,scoresofforeign-policyadvisorswhoHillaryClintonhasnevermetaredrafting
policymemosforherthatshewillneverread.

Thegroupofadvisorsissolarge,officialsintheClintoncampaigncannotofferadefinitiveestimateofitssize.Several
hundredisthestockanswer.Itissodecentralized,officialsadmittheynolongerdirectlycontrolitsmembership.

Despiteitsunwieldiness,thisnetworkofpolicyexpertshasbecomeoneofClintonsmostimportantweaponsagainsther
challengerfortheDemocraticnominationforpresident,BernieSanders.Notonlydoesherphalanxofsurrogatesroutinely
bashtheVermontsenatorforhisviewsonforeignpolicy,theirvastbreadthhascreatedtheimpressionthatClintonhas
lockeduptheDemocraticPartysentirestableofforeign-policyhands.

FortheClintoncampaign,sizemattersandSandersscomparativelyshallowteamofadvisorsreinforcesthenotionthat
hewontbereadytoleadthecountryonDayOne.ThecampaignprefersthisattackonSandersbecauseitdiffers
somewhatfromtheunsuccessfulchargethatClintondirectedatthen-Sen.BarackObamaduringthe2008presidential
primary.

Whatsthedifferencebetweenwhatyousaidaboutthen-SenatorObamaandwhatyouresayingaboutSenator
Sanders?NBCsChuckToddaskedClintonlastSunday,referringtoherrepeatedclaimsaboutSanderssinexperience
onforeignpolicy.

Theresaverybigdifference,Clintonresponded.

Obamahaddevelopedanetworkofadvisorsonnationalsecurityandforeign-policyissues,shesaid.Thatsnot
happeninginthiscampaign.Therereallyisntanykindofforeign-policynetworkthatissupportingandadvisingSenator
Sanders.

Indeed.
AsmuchasSandershastriedtoprovethecontrary,hisinteractionwithleadingnationalsecuritymindsappearslimitedto
one-offmeetingswithprominentWashingtonthinktankersandtheoccasionalU.S.governmentofficial.Afterthesenator
cameunderfireforhislackofforeign-policycredentialsearlierthismonth,thecampaignsentoutalistofindividuals
Sandershasmetwith,includingLawrenceKorb,aseniorfellowattheCenterforAmericanProgressRayTakeyh,an
IranexpertattheCouncilonForeignRelationsandTamaraCofmanWittes,ascholarattheBrookingsInstitution.In
releasingthelist,itsunclearifthecampaignwasawarethatCofmanWittesisinfactasenioradvisorontheClinton
campaignsMiddleEastworkinggroupaneasymistaketomake,givenClintonsmonopolizationoftheD.C.talent
pool.

TheSanderscampaigndidnotrespondtorequestsforcommentforthisreport.

Clintonsmassivenetwork,despitehavingonlytwofull-timeforeign-policyprofessionalsonstaff,isaresultofher
frontrunnerstatusandlongtimetiestothepartyestablishment.AtthetopispolicydirectorJakeSullivan,whoservedas
Clintonsdeputychiefofstaffwhenshewassecretaryofstate,andLauraRosenberger,aformerStateDepartmentofficial
whorunsday-to-dayoperationsandlong-termplanning.

ThisreportisbasedoninterviewswithahalfdozenpeopletiedtoClintonscampaign,allofwhomspokeonconditionof
anonymitybecausetheywerenotauthorizedtospeakpublicly.

Accordingtoofficialsclosetothecampaign,SullivanandRosenbergerinteractroutinelywithaseniorgroupofoutside
advisorsthatincludesformerCIADirectorandDefenseSecretaryLeonPanetta,formerNationalSecurityAdvisorTom
Donilon,CenterforaNewAmericanSecurityCEOMichleFlournoy,formerSecretaryofStateMadeleineAlbright,and
anumberofotherhigh-profileluminaries.

Beyondthetoprosterofexperts,thecampaignalsodrawsonaboutadozenadvisoryworkinggroupsforregionaland
functionalissuesoneverythingfromAsiatoEuropetohumanrightstodefensetocounterterrorismtocyber.Those
workinggroupsalsocontainsubgroupsofspecificcountriesorissueareas,andremainoncalltoanswerspur-of-the-
momentpolicyquestionsforthecampaign.

LimitingthesizeofClintonsadvisoryteamisnotaconcernoftheformersecretaryofstatestopaides.

Thecampaigngivesagroupofseniorpartnersauthoritytoselecttheexpertswhomakeupeachadvisoryworking
group,andinsomecases,Clintonstopaidesarentevenawareofwhotheexpertsare.Ifanoutsideexpertagreestojoin
aforeign-policyadvisoryteam,theysignanagreementpromisingnottodisclosethenamesofotheradvisorsintheir
workinggroups.

Asaresultofthisdecentralizedsystem,thecampaignboastsasurprisinglydiversecadreofexperts,fromearly-career
thinktankersintheir20stograyingex-diplomatsintheir50sand60s.EverybodygetstobeanadvisortoHillaryClinton.

Theadvantagesofavastadvisorpoolaremanifold.

Throughouttheyear,thesethinktankersandex-diplomatsdraftmemos,talkingpoints,andpositionpaperstoprepare
Clintonforeverypossiblequestionshemayconfrontonthecampaigntrail.Clintonstopaidesbelievethecampaigns
AsiahandshavealreadyprovenvitalinthewakeofNorthKoreasrecentnuclearprovocations.

Still,someClintoninsidersquestionedtheutilityofgeneratingreamsofpolicymemosonlow-profileissuessuchas
electionsinVietnamandUgandaormultilateralsummitsinAsia,Europe,andLatinAmerica.Idbeamazedifmymemo
getsanywherenearafull-timecampaignstaffer,saidoneadvisor.

Butfreeadviceisnttheonlyadvantagetohavingabigforeign-policyteam.Oneexpertsaidthesystemhelpedensure
loyaltyforClintonbycreatingtheillusionofinclusion.

Eventhoughyoureoneofhundreds,youfeellikeyourepartoftheteam,saidoneprominentthinktankscholar.

ItsthetypeofdynamicthatcanmakeanoutsideexpertthinktwicebeforetweetingasnarkyreactiontoaClintongaffe
orofferingaless-than-flatteringquotetoareporter.Theendgoalformanyexpertsistoparlayastintonanadvisory
groupintoaplumjobinafutureClintonadministration.

Ideologically,thearmyofadvisorsincludesamixofbothhawksanddovesandlongtimeacolytesofbothClintonand
Obama.

ThecampaignsMiddleEastworkinggroupisledbysenioradvisorsWittesandDerekChollet,aformerObama
administrationofficial,andcoordinatorPremKumar,aseniorvicepresidentattheAlbrightStonebridgeGroup.Abroad
scatteringofMiddleEastexpertsworkunderthisgroup,includingBruceJentleson,aformerStateDepartmentofficial
BernadetteMeehan,adiplomatandformerspokeswomanfortheNationalSecurityCouncilandBrianKatulis,asenior
fellowattheCenterforAmericanProgress.

ThecampaignscounterterrorismworkinggroupisledbyRandBeers,aformerHomelandSecurityofficialDan
Benjamin,aformerStateDepartmentofficialandcoordinatorMattSpence,aformerPentagonofficial.Thehumanrights
workinggroupisledbyformerStateDepartmentofficialsHaroldKohandMikePosner.TheEuropeandRussiaworking
groupisledbyMichaelMcFaul,theformerU.S.ambassadortoRussiaPhilGordon,aformerObamaWhiteHouse
officialandJulieSmith,formerdeputynationalsecurityadvisortoVicePresidentJoeBiden.

Otherindividuals,suchasDanKurtz-Phelan,afellowattheNewAmericathinktank,helpRosenbergercoordinatewith
thevastswathofadvisors.

Besidesofferingadvice,theexpertsoccasionallyhavetogettheirhandsdirty,too.

FollowingtheDemocraticdebateonFeb.4,theClintoncampaignhostedaconferencecallforreporterswithBenjamin,
whopilloriedSanderssperformance.

Heseemsnottohavereallystudieduponalotofkeyissues,saidBenjamin.HisanswersonNorthKoreaseemed
kindofpedestrianandnotfullyinformed.

Weeksearlier,thecampaignblastedoutalettersignedbyitsadvisorscriticizingSandersscalltomoveasaggressivelyas
wecantonormalizerelationswithIran.

WeareconcernedthatSenatorSandershasnotthoughtthroughthesecrucialnationalsecurityissuesthatcanhave
profoundconsequencesforoursecurity,wrote10Clintonadvisorsinanopenletter.

TheSanderscampaignroutinelypushesbackthattheVermontsenator,unlikethen-Sen.HillaryClinton,demonstratedthe
wisdomofvotingagainsttheIraqwarauthorizationin2002amovethatlikelycostClintonherprimarybidin2008.

Onthemostimportantissueofourtime,Iwasright,HillaryClintonwaswrong,hetoldCBSsFacetheNationlast
Sunday.

Rejectingwhathecalledamedianarrativethatheisnotstrongonforeignpolicy,hesaidhesconfidenthecanput
togetherastrongteamtoprovidegreatforeignpolicyforthepeopleoftheU.S.

AfternearlytyingClintoninIowascaucusvoteandtrouncingherbymorethan20pointsintheNewHampshireprimary,
thepressureonSanderstofinallybuildhisteamisgreaterthanever.Butifthatshisplan,heneedstostartrecruitingnew
advisorsbeforetheyallcommittoClintonorbeginpoaching.
Photocredit:DonEmmert/GettyImages

Corrections,Feb.10,2016:MichleFlournoyistheCEOoftheCenterforaNewAmericanSecurityapreviousversion
ofthisarticlemistakenlyreferredtoherasitspresident.ThelastDemocraticdebateoccurredonThursday,Feb.4a
previousversionofthisarticlesaidthedebatetookplacelastweekend.

SentfrommyiPad
 From: MartinDewhirst<martin.dewhirst@googlemail.com>
Senttime: 04/24/201612:18:44PM
To: PeterReddaway<pbreddaway@gmail.com>Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: Fwd:2016-#76-Johnson'sRussiaList

DearPeter,
Iknowyouhaveotherpriorities,butIthinkyoushouldreaditem3,
preferablyusingthelinktothefullversion.PetrovgivesPutinone
moreyearbeforehe'soverthrown,atmosttwoyears.IreadPetrov
regularly,andhaven'tcomeacrossanythinglikethisfromhimbefore.I
don'tcompletelyagreewithhim,andIsticktomyoriginalbetthat
Putinwillstillbetherein2020,butthisisthefirsttimeI'vehad
seriousdoubtsthatI'llwin.Ofcourse,someadditionalWestern
sanctionswouldhelptoincreasethechancesthatI'lllose,butIdon't
thinkeitheryourPresidentortheEUiswillingtohelpyoutowinourbet.
Best,
Martin
copy:ro

--------ForwardedMessage--------
Subject:2016-#76-Johnson'sRussiaList
Date:Thu,21Apr201611:27:52-0400(EDT)
From:DavidJohnson
Reply-To:davidjohnson@starpower.net
To:martin.dewhirst@gmail.com

Havingtroubleviewingthisemail?Clickhere

Johnson'sRussiaList
2016-#76
21April2016
davidjohnson@starpower.net
AprojectsponsoredthroughtheInstituteforEuropean,Russian,and
EurasianStudies(IERES)atTheGeorgeWashingtonUniversity'sElliott
SchoolofInternationalAffairs*
www.ieres.org

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ConstantContactJRLarchive:
http://archive.constantcontact.com/fs053/1102820649387/archive/1102911694293.html

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contentsdonotnecessarilyrepresenttheviewsofIERESortheGeorge
WashingtonUniversity.

*"Wedon'tseethingsastheyare,butasweare"*

*"Don'tbelieveeverythingyouthink"

Youseewhatyouexpecttosee

"Thebiggestcommunicationproblemiswedonotlistentounderstand.We
listentoreply."*

*Inthisissue*
TODAY<#LETTER.BLOCK4>
1.RFE/RL:BrianWhitmore,OnMyMind.<#LETTER.BLOCK5>
2.RFE/RL:BrianWhitmore,TheDailyVertical:TheKremlin'sSpin,
NATO'sReality.<#LETTER.BLOCK6>
3.EuropeanCouncilonForeignRelations:NikolayPetrov,Putin's
downfall:ThecomingcrisisoftheRussianregime.Thecurrenttrajectory
oftheRussianregimeisunstableandwithoutdramaticchangeitwill
crumblewithinthenextyear,accordingtoaleadingRussiaspecialist.
<#LETTER.BLOCK7>
4.Newsweek.com:PUTINISA'SMARTBUTTRULYEVILMAN,'SAYSMADELEINE
ALBRIGHT.<#LETTER.BLOCK8>
5.Euromaidanpress.com:MadeleineAlbrightandRussia's"usefulidiots"
<#LETTER.BLOCK9>
6.MoscowTimes:KirillRogov,Putin'sEconomist:WhyKudrinTappedto
WriteNewReformsPlan.<#LETTER.BLOCK10>
7.MoscowTimes:SamGreene,TheMasksComeOffbutRussianOfficials
HaveNothingLefttoSay.<#LETTER.BLOCK11>
8.Vedomosti:Russiansseeparliamentashaving"symbolic"significance
-pollsterchief.(AlekseyLevinson)<#LETTER.BLOCK12>
9.MoscowTimes:MoreThanHalfofRussiansWantNewSovietState-
Poll.<#LETTER.BLOCK13>
10.PaulGoble:Russians'ApproachtoPoliticsInconsistentand
Paradoxical,SociologistSays.<#LETTER.BLOCK14>
11.Politkom.ru:MostRussiansnotinterestedingettingtruepictureof
world-analysis.<#LETTER.BLOCK15>
12.www.opendemocracy.net:BadmaByurchiev,Russia'sregions:federalism
anditsdiscontents.CreatingtheappearanceofstabilityistheRussian
politicalelite'sprimarygoal.Yetcolonial-likeruleoverthe
country'sregions,combinedwithalackofcivicactivity,harmsthe
Kremlin'slegitimacyontheground.<#LETTER.BLOCK16>
13.TheNewYorkReviewofBooks:TimothySnyder,Trump'sPutinFantasy.
<#LETTER.BLOCK17>
14.DeutscheWelle:HowNigeriangirlsareforcedintoprostitutionin
Russia.<#LETTER.BLOCK18>
15.TheGuardian(UK):Russia's'coldturkey'approachhighlightsglobal
divideoverdrugtreatmentatUN.Russianrepresentativesuggests
methadoneandheroinarethe'samenarcoticdrug'asoutsideexperts
condemncountry'stakeontreatment:'They'retheworldleaderin
denyingthescience'<#LETTER.BLOCK19>
16.RFE/RL:BarredFromHundredsOfOccupationsInRussia,AFewWomen
FightBack.<#LETTER.BLOCK20>
17.Time.com:WhyaWininaDutchCourtIsMakingVladimirPutinSo
Happy.AcourtintheHaguehasquasheda$50billionjudgmentagainst
theRussianstate.ButPresidentPutin'senemiesfromtheYukosaffair
aren'tgivingupanytimesoon.<#LETTER.BLOCK21>
18.www.foreignaffairs.com:GregoryFeifer,IncorruptiblePutin.Whythe
PanamaAllegationsWon'tStick.<#LETTER.BLOCK22>
19.KennanInstitute:MaximTrudolyubov,HardWorkvs.Magic.
<#LETTER.BLOCK23>
20.www.foreigpolicy.com:SitRep:Exclusive:PentagonSaysRussiaCan
FightinUkraineandSyriaAnotherTwoYears.<#LETTER.BLOCK24>
21.NewYorkTimes:RussiaBolstersItsSubmarineFleet,andTensions
WithU.S.Rise.<#LETTER.BLOCK25>
22.WallStreetJournal:JoshuaYaffa,Russia'sWilyMenandWomen.
Russiansholdviewsthatseemimpossibletoreconcile.Studentsata
reputableschoolofferacuriousmixofheroes:StalinandSteveJobs.
(rePUTINCOUNTRYbyAnneGarrels)<#LETTER.BLOCK26>
23.BulletinoftheAtomicScientists:InterviewwithFormerUS
ambassadortoRussiaMichaelMcFaul.<#LETTER.BLOCK27>
24.TheAmericanInterest:LiliaShevtsova,HOWTHEWESTMISJUDGED
RUSSIAPART13.TheKremlin'sTriadastheMeansofSurvival.TheWest
needstounderstandthattheRussianSystemiswillingtofightforits
survival,andthatthisfightcouldtakemanydifferentforms.
<#LETTER.BLOCK28>
25.RussiaBeyondtheHeadlines:Atacrossroads:Theanxietiesofa
globalizedworld.InanRBTHexclusive,formerSovietleaderMikhail
Gorbachevwritesabouttheinternationalcrisisofleadershipandthe
challengesfacingpoliticiansaroundtheworldinatimeofmoral
uncertaintyandlackofunityandvisionforthefuture.<#LETTER.BLOCK29>
26.Irrussianality:PaulRobinson,LEGALBLOWBACK.<#LETTER.BLOCK30>
27.ChristianScienceMonitor:FredWeir,Revivalofdiplomacy?Ukraine,
Russiamakeprogressonprisonerswap.<#LETTER.BLOCK31>
28.BostonGlobe:LevGolinkin,PopeFrancis,askmoreforUkraine.
<#LETTER.BLOCK32>
29.Sputnik:Kremlin:RussiatoBeHappyIfUkraine'sAssociationWith
EUYieldsSuccess.<#LETTER.BLOCK33>
30.http://gordonhahn.com:GordonHahn,The20April2014Easter
Attack:AgainonRightSectorandtheMakingoftheUkrainianCivilWar.
<#LETTER.BLOCK34>

#1
RFE/RL
April21,2016
OnMyMind
ByBrianWhitmore

YouhavetowonderwhatdrivespeoplelikeAlekseiKudrinandElla
Pamfilova.Bothwereinthenewsthisweek.Kudrinacceptedanofferto
chairtheKremlin'stopeconomicsthinktank,theCenterforStrategic
Reform,andcalledforafundamentalrestructuringofRussia'seconomy
andpoliticalsystem.AndPamfilova,whowasrecentlyappointedheadof
theElectionCommission,raisedeyebrowsbycancelingelectionsinthe
MoscowsuburbofBarvikhaafterfouroppositioncandidatescomplainedof
fraud.PamfilovasaysshewillresignifthereisfraudinSeptember's
electionstotheStateDuma.Callmecynical(althoughIdon'tthinkI
am),butIjustdon'tthinkthekindofeconomicreformsKudrinis
proposingarepossibleunderthecurrentregime.Atbest,he'llbe
allowedtotinkeronthemargins.Andcallmecynicalagain(andagain,
Idon'tthinkIam),butIdon'texpectSeptember'selectiontobe
clean.RegimeliberalslikeKudrinandPamfilovaremainconvincedthat
thePutinregimecanbereformedandchangedfromwithin.Itcan't.
Becausereformingthisregimewouldmeanunderminingitscorrupt
foundations,whichwouldleadtoitsfall.AndthisisnotwhatPutin
hasinmind.
[returntoContents]<#n0>

#2
RFE/RL
April20,2016
TheDailyVertical:TheKremlin'sSpin,NATO'sReality
ByBrianWhitmore

TheKremlinanditssurrogatesarespinningtoday'smeetingofthe
NATO-RussiaCouncilastheendofMoscow'sisolation.

InBrussels,itisviewedasatechnicalmeetingtoputsafeguardsin
placetopreventanaccidentalconflictfrombreakingoutamidrising
tensions.

TheKremlinsaysrevivingtheNATO-RussiaCouncilafternearlytwoyears
isproofthatachastenedWesthasrealizedtheerrorofitswaysandis
nowreadytoengageMoscow.

InWesterncapitals,themeetingislargelyviewedasanecessaryevil
andanopportunitytocalloutRussiafortheprovocativeactionsofits
warplanesininternationalairspace--andtheircontinuedviolationsof
NATOairspace.

TheKremlinispresentingtheresurrectionoftheNATO-RussiaCouncilas
asignthattheUkrainecrisishaschangedtherulesofinternational
politicsinMoscow'sfavor.

NATOofficialsseeitasanopportunitytoreprimandRussiaforits
continuedeffortstodestabilizeUkraine,foritsfailuretoabideby
theMinskcease-fireagreement--andtoreinforcethemessagethatthis
behaviorhascostsandconsequences.
Today'smeetingamongNATOandRussianenvoyswillagainillustratethat
MoscowandtheWestliveincompletelydifferentcognitiverealities.

TheKremlin'spropagandamachinewillspinitasamajorvictoryfora
resurgentRussia.

Butopticsaside,itwillbenothingofthesort.
[returntoContents]<#n0>

#3
EuropeanCouncilonForeignRelations
www.ecfr.eu
April19,2016
Putin'sdownfall:ThecomingcrisisoftheRussianregime
ByNikolayPetrov
NikolayPetrovisavisitingfellowattheEuropeanCouncilonForeign
Relations.HewaschairoftheCarnegieMoscowCenter'sSocietyand
RegionsProgram.HeworkedintheInstituteofGeographyattheRussian
AcademyofSciencesfrom1982to2006.Heservedaschieforganiserof
theAnalysisandForecastDivisionintheSupremeSoviet(1991-1992),
wasanadviserandanalystfortheRussianPresidentialAdministration
(1994-1995),andascholarattheKennanInstituteforAdvancedRussian
Studies(1993-1994)andtheInternationalFoundationforElectoral
Systems(1994).From1996to2000,PetrovworkedattheCarnegieMoscow
Centerasaseniorconsultantandscholar-in-residence.Petrovearned
hisPh.D.fromMoscowStateUniversity.MoscowTimescolumnist.
[Fulltexthere
http://www.ecfr.eu/publications/summary/putins_downfall_the_coming_crisis_of_the_russian_regime700
6

ThecurrenttrajectoryoftheRussianregimeisunstableandwithout
dramaticchangeitwillcrumblewithinthenextyear,accordingtoa
leadingRussiaspecialist.

"Putin'sdownfall:ThecomingcrisisoftheRussianregime"byNikolay
PetrovarguesthatRussia'spoliticalregimeisunsustainableandlacks
capacitytoreforminthefaceofeconomicturmoil.Hearguesthatthe
regimehaslittleroomformanoeuvre,asexcessivecentralisationmakes
thesystemunstableandinefficient.Followingpreviousdomestic
dissent,VladimirPutincentralisedallpowerinthepresidencyand
weakenedRussianpoliticalandstateinstitutionsintheprocess.Now,
theregimeneedstokeepdeliveringmilitaryvictoriesorfacealossof
support.

PetrovassertsthattheRussianregimehasonlytwowaysoutofits
comingcrisis,bothofwhichhavelimitations.Thefirstistoreconcile
withtheWestandsoimproveitsfinances,byreininginanti-Western
rhetoricandappointingprominentreformerstokeypositionsinthe
government.Petrovbelievesthisisunlikelygiventhedeeplyentrenched
hostilitybetweenRussiaandtheWest.

Thesecondwayout,accordingtoPetrov,istochangeleader.WithPutin
havingstakedhispoliticalpoweronthelegitimacyofmilitaryvictory,
thesystemwillbreakdownwhenRussiastopswinning.Thealternativeis
anewleaderwithadifferent-perhapsanelectoral-mandate.However,
thisoptiontooisfraughtwithdangers.Withnoclear'heir',the
current,highlycentralisedandhighlypersonalised,systemwouldneed
toberebuilt.

Thealternativetotheseexitstrategiesisariskycollapse.
UncontrolledregimechangewouldleaveRussiawithoutvisibleleadersor
effectivestateinstitutions.Inthisscenario,powercouldbeassumed
byacoalitionofcorporations,redistributedamongvariousbodies,
includinggovernmentagencies,largecompanies,andevencertain
regions,suchasTatarstanandChechnya.

Summary
-Russia'spoliticalregimeisunsustainable.Ithasnocapacityto
reform,andfacesgrowingeconomicwoes,crumblinginfrastructure,and
warringelites.

-Afterwidespreadprotestsandebbingofsupport,thegovernmentbegan
in2014tobaseitslegitimacyonwinningwars.Putincentralisedall
powerinthepresidency,suppressingdissentandweakeninginstitutions
intheprocess.

-Now,theregimeneedstokeepdeliveringmilitaryvictoriesorfacea
lossofsupport.Excessivecentralisationmakesthesystemunstableand
inefficient,focusedonsurvivalratherthanstrategy.Assanctionsbite
andfundsrunshort,theelitesaregrowingimpatient,andthechanceof
conflictisrisinginregionssuchastheCaucasus.

-TherearetwowaysoutfortheRussianregime:improveitsfinancesby
reconcilingwiththeWest,orregainlegitimacybyreplacingthe
president.Eventhesewillonlybuyittime,andmaynotpreventatotal
collapse.

-ThereisnoclearheirtoPutin,andcollapsecouldbefollowedbythe
redistributionofpowertovariousgovernmentbodies,companies,and
regions,includingChechnya.

Russia'scurrentregimewillnotlastlong.Thetumultuouseventsin
Ukrainein2014reducedthecountry'spossibletrajectoriestoasingle
one-apaththatwillquicklyleadtothecollapseofthePutin
governmentifthereisnoradicalchangeinitscourse.

BeforetheCrimea-Ukraineaffair,itlookedasthoughPresidentVladimir
Putin'spoliticalregimewasfairlystableandcouldlastforseveral
yearswithoutprofoundchange.However,therewasaqualitativeshiftin
theregime'scharacterafter2014.Now,itdrawsitslegitimacyfrom
militaryaction,ratherthanfromtheballotbox.Therootsofthis
shiftgobacktothepoliticalcrisisof2011-2012,whenmass
anti-governmentprotestsandpoorelectoralresultsfortherulingparty
showedthattheoldformofpoliticswascomingtoanend.

Today,theregimederivesitslegitimacynotfromthebottomup,through
elections,butfromthetopdown,byplacingthecountryonapermanent
warfooting.AlthoughPutinstayedinpower,hisrolechanged
fundamentally-now,heismorelikeatsarthanthechairofaboard.
Theregimehasmovedfromahybridsystemthatstillmaintainedthe
outwardtrappingsofademocracytoafull-scaleauthoritarianstate,
whiletheshiftingbalanceofpowerhasmadetheelitesmoredependent
onthepresident.

AlthoughPutin'spopularityskyrocketedaftertheannexationofCrimea,
hehasbeentrappedbyhischoices.Hisregimeisaddictedtomilitary
actionandnowneedsaseriesofever-strongerhitsofforeignconflict
inordertomaintainitslegitimacy.Thispositionisunsustainable,
givenshrinkingfinancialresources,thewaningpatienceofeliteswho
don'twanttoliveinamilitarycampforever,andRussia's
fast-deterioratingadministrativeandpoliticalsystems.Thecountryis
beingheldhostagebytheregimetheregimeisahostageofPutin,and
Putinisahostageofhisownactions,whichhavedrasticallynarrowed
hisrangeofoptions.

Givenallthis,Russia'scurrenttrajectoryisthatofaplaneina
tailspin.Therearethreepossibleoutcomes:

(A)Regimechange:Theplanecrashesintotheground,andthecurrent
Russianpoliticalregimeundergoesacompletecollapse,withbothleader
andinstitutionsremoved

(B)Exitstrategy1:Theplanepullsoutofthetailspin,withthepilot
stillinplace.ThiscouldinvolvereconciliationwiththeWest,ora
sharpincreaseintheoilprice
(C)Exitstrategy2:Thecrewselectsanewpilot,whopullstheplane
outofitstailspin.

Itisbynomeanscertainwhichofthesescenarioswillcometopass.
Theirrelativeprobabilitiesshiftaccordingtoeventsontheground,
andevenanattempttomaintainthestatusquowillaltertherangeof
possibleoutcomesinunpredictableways.Thispapersetsouttoassess
howlongtheRussianregimehasleft,settingoutthefivefactorsthat
havesentitintoitscurrenttailspin,beforeconsideringitspossible
exitstrategies,andwhattypeofregimemightcomenext.

Howlongcanitlast?

Putin'sregimecan'tlastforlonginitscurrentstate-eitherthe
planewillclimboutofthetailspin,oritwillcrash.Theconcrete
dangersfortheregimeincluderisingsocialtensionsduetocutsin
governmentspendingterroristattacksinresponsetoitsmilitary
actioninSyriaandthedilemma
ofeasternUkraine-whereitisunabletoescalate,forfearoftougher
sanctions,orretreat,forfearofbeingaccusedofbetrayingthe
nationalinterest.Underlyingallthisisthegeneralpolitical
instabilitythatcouldslideintochaosifsomethinghappenedtoPutin
himself,orifhisapproval
ratingswentintoasharpdecline.

Inaddition,thelikelihoodofanexplosionofconflictintheCaucasus
growsasfederalfundsshrink,becominginsufficienttoensurethe
loyaltyofethnicclanelites,andthustobuystabilityintheregion.
Russia'sageinginfrastructurecouldcauseatechnologicaldisasterat
anytime,andindeedthis
hashappenedseveraltimesintherecentpast.Theauthoritiesmaybe
abletodealwithindividualcrisesingovernmentinstitutionsifthey
strikeonebyone,butnotiftheytakeplaceinanavalanche,witheach
triggeringafurthercrisis.Thekeyissueistiming-howlongthe
regimecansurvivewithoutradicalchange.Predictionsvary:frommany
yearsofslowdecay,liketheRomanEmpire,toacompletetransformation
-imposedeitherfromaboveorfrombelow-bytheendof2016.

Intheviewofthisauthor,theregimehaslessthanayear:the
existentialthreatitfacesismadeupofseveraldynamics,eachof
which,takenalone,islikelytodestroytheregimeinlessthantwo
years.Whencombined,however,theyexacerbatetheturbulenceandmake
theregime'slifeexpectancyevenshorter.Byconsideringeachdynamic
separately,wecansystematicallyapproachthequestionofhowlongthe
regimehasleft....
[returntoContents]<#n0>

#4
Newsweek.com
April20,2016
PUTINISA'SMARTBUTTRULYEVILMAN,'SAYSMADELEINEALBRIGHT
BYDAMIENSHARKOV

FormerU.S.SecretaryofStateMadeleineAlbrighthasincurredthewrath
ofRussianPresidentVladimirPutin'salliesaftercallinghima"smart
buttrulyevilman."

InaninterviewwithAustriannewspaperDiePresse,Albrightdefended
theforeignpolicyofBillClinton'sadministration,inwhichshewas
SecretaryofStateduringClinton'sfirstterm.TheCzechRepublic,
PolandandHungarywerethefirstformerCommuniststatestojoinNATO
in1999,inwhatwouldbecomethefirststepofaneastwardexpansion
whichhasstronglyincensedMoscow.

"IamveryproudoftheNATOexpansion.Thenwemanagedtousethepower
ofWesternEuropeandhelptheBalkanstates,"Albrightsaid."The
UnitedStatessawitsroleasanindispensablenationwhichshoulddo
goodallovertheworld."

AlbrighttookalesspositiveviewofPutin,whomshemetduringavisit
totheKremlinin2000,shortlyafterhesucceededformerRussian
PresidentBorisYeltsin.Whenaskedwhatherlastingimpressionwasof
theyoungpresident,Albrightwascritical.

"Heissmart,butatrulyevilman,"shesaid,describinghimas"aKGB
officer,whowantstokeepeverythingundercontrolandbelievesthat
everyoneconspiresagainstRussia."

"Putinhadbadcards,buttheywereplayedwell,"shesaid."Atleast,
intheshort-term.IthinkhisgoalistoundermineandsplittheEU.He
wantstodriveNATOfromhissphereofinfluence."

Washington'sformertopdiplomatalsowarnedthattheBalticstates
shouldbeconcernedfromRussia'smilitarybuild-uponitsborders,
especiallybecauseofRussia'smethodof"asymmetricwarfare."

AlbrightalsodismissedRussiancriticismsthattheU.S.seeksto
provokeRussia,saying"theU.S.hasnoproblemwithRussia,exceptwhen
itoccupiesothercountries."

"OnealwayslooksforexcusesforRussiaandI'mfedupwithit,"
Albrightsaid."Russiaisacountrythatprovokesandthenfeelsinsulted."

Inresponse,Putin-allyandchairmanofRussianparliament's
InternationalRelationsCommitteeAlexeyPushkovtooktoTwitter.

"WhetherAlbrightisfedupornot,isnotimportant,"hewrote."The
U.S.anditsalliesareforcedtodealwithRussia.Theopinionofsome
forgottenSecretaryofState,isofnobody'sinterest."
[returntoContents<#n0>]

#5
Euromaidanpress.com
April20,2016
MadeleineAlbrightandRussia's"usefulidiots"
ByVitaliyPortnikov
VitaliyPortnikovisaUkrainianeditorandjournalist.BorninKyivin
1967.Since1989,heworksastheanalystoftheNezavisimayaGazeta,
specializinginpost-Sovietcountries,andcooperateswiththeRussian
andUkrainianservicesofRadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty.

TheformersecretaryofstateMadeleineAlbrighthasbecomethefocusof
Russianpropaganda.Well-knownhystericsarediscussinghervillainy.
CartoonistsaredepictingherinthetraditionoftheSoviet"portraits"
offoreignenemiesduringtheColdWar.

Andofcourseallofthem-thosewhowriteandthosewhodraw-never
tireofrepeatingthatAlbrightwhohasbeen"onthe"dustbinof
history"andwouldhaveremainedunnoticedbyallifnotforthefact
thatshehadoffended"GreatRussia"andthecountry'sinsaneleader
VladimirPutininaninterviewwiththeAustrianDiePresse.

WhenAlbrightcalledRussia"Bangladeshwithmissiles"sheremindedthe
RussianpropagandistsofthegoodoldnicknamefortheSovietUnion.The
Communistsstatewascalled"UpperVoltawithrockets"inthecivilized
world.And,incidentally,itwasnotfarfromthetruth.

Alreadyafewyearslater,whentheWestreachedthesameconclusion,
theUSSRdidnothavelongtoexist(?)IdonotdoubtthatPutin's
Russiawillfollowitsmalevolentpredecessor.ButinRussiatheytook
offenseatAlbrightnotonlyforthe"Bangladeshwithmissiles"andan
accuratepsychologicalcharacterizationofPutin,whomtheexperienced
diplomatcalleda"trulyevilman."

WhatwasmostimportantwasthatAlbrighthadjudgedthebehaviorofa
certainportionoftheWesternestablishment.

"I'mreallysickofthefactthatpeoplearealwaystryingtofind
excusesforRussia.Russiaisacountrythatprovokesandthenfeels
offended,"AlbrighttoldtheAustrianjournalists.
Shegaveatoughandaccuratedescriptionofthepoliticsofthosewho
arereadytoabandonUkrainetofendforitselfintheconflictwiththe
"offended"aggressor.

ThosewholookforjustificationsforMoscow'sactionsinRussia's
difficulthistoryandtheeternallyvictimized"Russiansoul"whichis
usuallysearchedforwiththehelpofmoneystolenfromtheRussians
themselves.Thosewhoarereadytosellinternationallawforthe
superfluoustankofoil.

ThereareplentyofsuchpeopleamongWesternpoliticians,diplomats,
andjournalists.Theyarethemainenemiesofthosevaluesuponwhich
thecivilizedworldisbased.Theyaretheenemies-notPutin.

BecausePutinisnothidinganything.Hesendsarmies.Heallowsthemto
kill,torture,rape,steal.Andthesepeoplepretendnottonotice
anything.Becausetheyareafraid.Becausetheywantmoney.Becausethey
arethe"usefulidiots"ofthenewFuhrer.Theparentsofmanyofthem
behavedinexactlythesamewayinthe1930s.

Theypreferrednottonotice.Theywereafraid.Theymadeexcuses.Or
theyadmiredthe"spirituality"-whetherNaziorBolshevik.Andthen
theywonderedwheretheGermantanksinParisorAmsterdamcamefromor
theSovietonesinRigaandTallinn.

Itisimportanttounderstandhowithappened!Perhapswehavenotfully
understood?OrhavenotgraspedtheAryansoul?AndthentheRussian
soulisacompletemystery.IfnotforHitler'sidioticattackonhis
allyStalin,ifnotfortheUSentryintothewar,Europewouldhave
losttotheReichandtheflagswiththeswastikascouldstillbewaving
overEuropeancapitals.

But,aswecansee,therehavebeennoconclusionsdrawnfromthis
inevitabledefeat,andwehavecontinuedtobeconfrontedwithstupidity
andbetrayaluntilthepresenttime.ThisissomethingthatMadeleine
Albrightwasnotafraidtosay.Andsomethingthatwe,too,mustnotforget.
[returntoContents<#n0>]

#6
MoscowTimes
April21,2016
Putin'sEconomist:WhyKudrinTappedtoWriteNewReformsPlan
ByKirillRogov
KirillRogovisapoliticalanalyst.

RussianPresidentVladimirPutinhasdecidedthatformerFinance
MinisterandDeputyPrimeMinisterAlexeiKudrinistodrawupanew
economicprogramforthecountry.

AnysensibleeconomicstrategyshouldbebaseduponRussia'sreturnto
regulartransfersofpowerintheKremlin.Noadministrationshould
servefor16years,andaconsiderablesegmentoftherulingelite
understandsthisalltoowell.

AlexeiKudrinhasbeencalledontorejectthatideaandinsteadto
writealiberaleconomicprogramforPutin.Itisdesignedtorevive
hopeamongtheelitethatPutinwilltakeamoreprogressivestance
duringhis19thyearinpower.

Kudrinhasinfactbeenbroughtintoplayanoldgame.Thiswillbethe
fourthsuchprogramofPutin'srule.

ThefirstwasdraftedbyGermanGrefbackin2000.Atthetime,Putin
wascultivatingtheimageofastrongman-reformer,amanwho
effortlesslyfulfilledthelongingoftheRussianpeopleforastrong
leaderalongsidethehopesoftheRussianeliteforaliberalmarket
economy.

Thegovernmentneverformallyadoptedtheprogram.Ministerstookthe
draft"intoconsideration,"allowingleaderstoimplementorignore
policiesastheypleased.

Imagineowningahorse-drawncart:Someonebringsyouplanstoconvert
itintoacarandyoupromiseto"takeitintoconsideration."Atsome
point,youattachsidemirrors,replacethetworearwheelswithalloy
rims,applymetallicpainttothesideboardsandinstallanair
conditionerforthedriver.Theresultisthatyouhaveostensibly
achieved35percentfulfillmentoftheplan.TheRussiangovernment
takesasimilarapproach.

Gref'ssuccessorasEconomicDevelopmentandTradeMinister,Elvira
Nabiullina,drewupthesecondeconomicprogram.Hereffortswereneeded
becausetherealitiesoftheoilboomhadderailedthemarketreforms
envisionedbyGref.Nabiullina'sprogramwasanattempttocarryout
somethingcalled"oilmodernization."Thatprojectwasapprovedin2008
butbecomeirrelevantafewmonthslaterwhenoilpricesfell.

Thethirdliberaleconomicprogramwasthefamous"Strategy2020,"
writtenbyformerPresidentDmitryMedvedev.Thatprogramwasprimarily
intendedtodemonstratePutin'sfirmcontroloverboth
conservative-strongmenandliberal-marketdiscoursesinRussiansociety.

Thisisoneofthemainpoliticalfunctionsoftheliberaleconomic
programsRussia'sseniorleadersperiodicallyorderup.Theyexistto
preventanyoneelsefromproposingpoliticaloreconomicalternatives.
Whateverhappensinreality,ifthegovernmentisrockedbytheYukos
affair,energywars,orthedrainingofpensionfunds,Putinmakessure
toalwayshaveaprogressivereformprogramonthetable.Hemakesit
clearthathejustmightimplementitatanymoment.

Thisfourthprogramwillapparentlyservethesamepurpose.Evenafter
leavingthegovernment,Kudrinhasmanagedtobuildwhatcouldserveas
thebasisforasystemicoppositionpartybyskillfullymaneuvering
betweenmoderatebutsteadyoppositionandpersonalloyaltytoPutin.Of
course,itwouldbemuchmorenaturalforKudrintoheadaprogressive
businessparty,standforelectionsandthenheadaStateDumafaction.
FortheKremlinthatisanunacceptableoption,asiseverynatural
occurrenceinpolitics.

Kudrinhasreceivedonlyvaguepromisesinhisnewpost.Hewasinvited
todraftaneconomicprogramthathasnoofficialstatusorfunding.He
wasofferedonlyindefinitepowersonthepresident'sEconomicCouncil,
astrangeandpracticallynon-functioningbodythatPutinhasnot
consultedevenoncethroughout18monthsofeconomiccrisis.

Kudrinhadbeenhopingtogainthestatusof"exclusivedeveloperof
Russia'snewreforms"and,accordingtorumors,winaseniorposition-
possiblyevendeputyheadofthepresidentialadministration.In
reality,hewasputonashortleashandwarnednottogotoofar.

ThisisdespitethefactthatPutinverymuchneedsKudrin.Bybringing
Kudrintothefore,Putinkillstwobirdswithonestone.First,he
maintainspressureonPrimeMinisterDmitryMedvedev'sgovernment.
Second,inRussia,so-called"systemicliberals"fulfillcertain
paradoxicalpoliticalandfiscalfunctions.Inothercountries,itis
normalforeconomicliberalstoadvocatereductionsinpublicspending,
which,inturn,allowsthegovernmenttolowertaxesandspureconomic
growth.Russia's"systemicliberals"vociferouslycallforspendingcuts
whileneveradvocatingtaxcuts.Tothecontrary,theyevenvigorously
opposetaxcutsfromtimetotime.

Theauthoritieshavetypicallyjustifiedthisstrangepolicyonthe
groundsthattheyhaveneededtobuildupfiscalreserves.Overthelast
sevenyearswhilecofferswerefull,theworldsawjusthowthose
reserveswerespent.Thatexcesscashallowedthegovernmenttoavoid
implementingessentialreformsevenduringatimeofeconomiccrisis.It
wasspentonstaginghistory'scostliestOlympicGamesandawildly
expensiveAsia-PacificEconomicCooperation(APEC)summit,savingthe
Vneshekonombank(VEB)frombankruptcy,increasingdefenseandsecurity
spendingandcreatingtheNationalGuard.
Putindoesneeda"cost-cuttingparty"duringtheeconomiccrisis,and
itneedstobeabureaucratic,non-politicalpartythatwillnotexceed
acceptableboundaries.Thispartyshouldfocusonincreasingsupportfor
raisingtheretirementage:oneofthekeyfiscalmeasuresneededto
preservethe"Putinsystem"duringthiseconomiccrisis.Theexpectation
isthatKudrinwillagreetothisrolewithoutmakingexcessive
politicaldemandsofhisown.

Havingsomeonetofulfillthatroleseemstobetherationalebehindthe
currentmoveKudrinisproposingtodraftaneconomicprogramthat,just
likethepreviousthree,noonehasanyintentionofcarryingout.He
hasn'tbeenpromisedanythingandisexpectedtodoalotofdirtywork
inreturn.
[returntoContent<#n0>s]

#7
MoscowTimes
April21,2016
TheMasksComeOffbutRussianOfficialsHaveNothingLefttoSay
BySamGreene
SamGreeneisapoliticalanalyst.

IfRussianliberalsthinkthey'vegotitbad,theyshouldstopfora
momenttoconsidertheplightofAlexanderBastrykin.

Formally,Bastrykin'sroleasheadofRussia'sInvestigativeCommittee
istoinvestigatecrimewhilesimultaneouslycompetingforresourcesand
influencewithpoliceandprosecutors.Bynight,theludicrousnessof
thatposition-evidencedbytherunningbattlebetweenhiscommittee
andthefederalprosecutorsoverwhethertoremandbusinessmanDmitri
Kamenshchik-evidentlyleaksintohisalter-egoasabsurdistpolitical
theorist.

Littledidheknowhe'dbehavecompetitionintheformofElla
Pamfilova,thehumanrightsactivistturnedheadoftheRussianCentral
ElectionCommission.

WhyBastrykinfeltmovedtoenterintothepublicfraythisweek,
penninganessayintheKommersantVlastmagazinethatseemeddesigned
toconfirmeveryRussianliberal'sworstfears,wecannotknow.

Perhaps,assomehavesuggested,hewaslobbyingfornewpowersto
counterseditiononline,inuniversitiesandelsewhere.It'sunlikely,
though,thatthepagesofasemi-liberalmagazinearethebestvenuefor
that.Maybe,aftertherecentshakeupinRussia'slawenforcement
universe,hefeltunsureofhispositionanddecidedtotrytoprovehis
loyaltyandusefulnesswithadeclarationofideologicalfervor.That
tackdidn'tworksowellforoustedrailwayschiefVladimirYakunin.

Whatwedoknow,however,isthatBastrykinsaidnothingnew.The
proposalstomoretightlycontrolflowsofinformationandcapitalhave
beenaroundforyears.TaxpoliceandRoskomnadzoralreadyhavemostof
theextra-judicialpowersthatBastrykinsaysaresocritical.
Similarly,authoritiesclearlyseeideologyandhistoryasa
battleground,andhavelongarguedthattheiropponentsarebackedby
theWest.AndthefactthatMoscow'senforcershavelittlepatiencefor
thenicetiesofconstitutionalismshould,in2016,comeasasurpriseto
noone.

Andso,unableorunwillingtotellusanythingwedidn'talreadyknow,
Bastrykinfollowedinthefootstepsofcountlesspreacherswhohavebeen
abandonedbytheirmuse:Hesimplysaiditlouderandbrasher.

Whatcaughtreaders'attentionwasBastrykin'scallto"stopplayingat
falsedemocracy"andabandon"pseudo-liberalvalues."LikeDonaldTrump
intheUnitedStates,we'renotsurprisedBastrykinthinksthesethings,
butweallowourselvesamomentofrighteousindignationwhenhe
actuallysaysthem.
That'sthemirrorimageofliberals'reactiontoPamfilova.Shortly
afterBastrykinpublishedhisthesis,Pamfilovatoldopposition
candidateIvanZhdanov-whoisfacingprosecutiononevidentlytrumped
upcharges-thatheshouldhave"knownwhatwouldhappenwhenyouwent
intopolitics."ThataRussianelectionofficialwouldsaysuchathing
is,alas,parforthisparticularcoursethesurpriseisthat
Pamfilova,whospentherlifeinthehumanrightscommunity,might
actuallythinkit.

Liberals'doubtsaboutPamfilovaintensifiedwhensheinitiallyturneda
blindeyetoobviousfraudaroundlocalcouncilelectionsinthe
affluentMoscowsuburbofBarvikha.Zhdanovandotherssupportedby
AlexeiNavalny'sPartyofProgressdecidedtocontesttheelectionsas
anearlytestofhowtheKremlin-andPamfilova-wouldmanagethe
upcomingDumavote.Presentedwithevidenceoftheusualrepertoireof
early-voteballotstuffingandotherformsofmanipulation,Pamfilova
offeredtopasstheallegationsontoYuryChaika,theprosecutor
generalwhosefamily'sbusinessdealingshavebeensubjecttoarecent
investigationbyNavalnyandZhdanov.Theironywaslostonnoone.

Navalnyeventuallyyankedhiscandidatesfromtherace,passingjudgment
onPamfilovaintheprocess.Nodoubtspurredonbythecriticism,the
nextdaytheCentralElectionCommitteedemandedthatlocalofficials
cancelthevotewhatwillhappennextremainsunclear.

ImagineBastrykin'sfrustration:Herehewas,settingeverythingupfor
agood-cop-bad-coproutine,andPamfilovashowsup,wantingtoplaythe
badcoptoo.Butthecomedymasksadeepertragedy:Whenthereareno
otherwordstosayandnothoughtstothink,theabsurdityofitall
becomesbanal,boring,andtheplayers,trappedintheirroles,tireof
themasks.
[returntoContents<#n0>]

#8
Vedomosti
April12,2016
Russiansseeparliamentashaving"symbolic"significance-pollsterchief
AlekseyLevinson,headoftheLevadaCentreSocialandCulturalStudies
Department,SocietySeesItselfOnlyasthe'Majority.'ForSucha
Society,theParliamentandPartiesHaveNoPracticalSignificance

LevadaCentreputseveralquestionstothefuturevotersabouttheir
attitudetopoliticalparties.Whatfollowsbelowisnotanelectoral
forecast,butadiscussionofwhatourpartysystemlookslikeinthe
eyesofRussiancitizens.

Onlyfivepartiesexistwhichoverhalfofvoterssaythey"know"(which
mostlikelymeans"recognize").TheseareUnitedRussia,theCPRF
[CommunistPartyoftheRussiaFederation],theLDPR[Liberal-Democratic
PartyofRussia],JustRussia,andYabloko.However,thereisa
differencebetweensuch"knowing"andareadinesstosupportaparty
withyourownvote.Thisdifferenceisseveral-foldevenforUnited
Russia,whileforotherpartiesitishuge.Itworksoutthatthe
citizenswillnotvoteforthemnotbecausetheydonotknowthem,but
actuallybecausetheydo.

Whatkindofparliamentdoweneed?Amultipartyone,onewithfew
parties,orjustaone-partyparliament?Only8percentofvotersare
infavourofaparliamentinwhich"amultitudeofrelativelysmall
parties"holdsittings.ADumawithonesoleparty(andwecanguess
whichone)wouldsuitone-fourthofRussiansperfectlywell.Butthe
followingopinionisthemostwidelyheld(45percent):Weneeda
systemof"twoorthreelargeparties."That,itwouldseem,iswhatthe
willoftheelectoratelookslike.Butenoughvotesfromthesesame
voterscannotbemusteredevenfortwolargeparties,nevermindthree.
UnitedRussiacanqualifyfortheterm"large,"andaround40percent
intendtosupportittoday,butthosewhoarepromisingtovoteforthe
CPRFandtheLDPRtogethercometolessthan20percent.

Ourpresentparliamentarismisacomplexphenomenon.Theexecutive,for
allitsinclinationforhegemony,undoubtedlyneedsaparliament.And
notonlyasadecoration,andnotonlyasa"printer."Yes,theDumais
notaplacefordiscussions,butithasreallybecomeoneofthe
platformswhere"issuesareresolved,"whereinterestscollideandfind
compromise.Theonlythingisthattheinterests--perceived,andthen
processed,havingobtainedtheirmouthpiece--bynomeansbelongtothe
"entirepeople,"northe"majority,"butonlytothe"minority,"such
as,inourcountry,businesses,corporations,andorganisations.There
isnothingunsoundinthis.Thetaskisthatallofsocietyshould
emergeasacomplexconglomerateof"minorities"--professional,
regional,social,andothers.Theirrepresentatives,throughthe
mediationofsomekindofpartysystem,wouldentertheparliamentto
coordinatetheirmostdiverseinterests.Letusnoteinpassingthat
thisinterweavingofminoritiesisstrongerandmoreviablethana
singlemonolithicmajority.Becausetheunityofthatisensuredbysome
kindofsingle,oneandonlyfactor,whereasinaconglomerateof
minoritiesthereisamultitudeoffactorsofinterdependenceand
connection.

Societycurrentlyseesitselfonlyasa"majority."Forsuchamajority,
whichhasnotmadesenseofitselfinternally,aparliamentandparties
arethingswithsymbolicratherthanpracticalsignificance.Thatiswhy
now(untilthetelevisionhasrousedthem)46percentstilldonothave
anymoreorlesssetdecisionsonparticipatingintheelections.And
thepublic'sexpectationsaboutwhethertheupcomingelectionsarea
"realfightforpowerandseatsintheDuma"orwhetherthis"willjust
beanimitationofafight,whilethedistributionofseatsintheDuma
willbedeterminedbytheauthorities'decision"aresplitexactly
half-and-half.
[returntoContents]<#n0>

#9
MoscowTimes
April21,2016
MoreThanHalfofRussiansWantNewSovietState-Poll

MorethanhalfofRussianswouldliketoseetherestorationofthe
SovietUnion,accordingtoapollreleasedTuesday.

Although58percentofrespondentssaidtheywouldliketoseeanew
socialistsystem,only14percentbelievedthatitwaslikelytohappen,
thereportbytheindependentLevadacenterpollsterrevealed.

Thirty-onepercentofrespondentswereopposedtorestoringtheSoviet
Union,while10percentdidnotgiveanopinion.

Thenumbersshowlittlechangefromasimilarpollconductedadecade
ago,thepollsterreported.

ThenumberofRussianswhoregretthecollapseoftheSovietUnion-
currently56percent-remainsbelowtheall-timehighin2000when
PresidentVladimirPutincametopower.Atthetime,some75percentof
RussiansregrettedthefalloftheSovietUnion,accordingtoLevada
Centerpolls.

JustoverhalfofRussians,or51percent,thinktheSovietcollapse
couldhavebeenavoided,whileanother33percentbelieveitwas
inevitable,thelatestpollindicated.InMarch2000,thenumbersstood
at62percentand26percent,respectively.

ThelatestpollwasconductedattheendofMarchwith1,600adultsin
137citiesandtownsacrossRussia.
[returntoContents]<#n0>

#10
Russians'ApproachtoPoliticsInconsistentandParadoxical,Sociologist
Says
PaulGoble
Staunton,April20-NewpollsshowingmorethanhalfofRussiansregret
thedemiseoftheUSSR
(vestikavkaza.ru/news/Bolee-poloviny-rossiyan-sozhaleyut-o-raspade-SSSR-opros.html)

andthat40percentofRussiansdonotbelievethestateismeetingits
obligationstothem(kasparov.ru/material.php?id=57172AB41357E)have
attractedagreatdealofattention.

ButathirdsurveyconductedbyIrinaVorobyovaoftheRussianState
HumanitiesUniversitymaybethemostimportantbecauseitfocuseson
theparadoxesandinternalinconsistencesoftheapproachofRussiansto
politics,politicalself-identification,andexpectations.

Herstudy,"ContradictionsandParadoxesofPoliticalOrientationsin
theStructureoftheWorldofRussians,"Sotsiologicheskiye
issledovaniya,no.1(2016),isavailableonlineat
socis.isras.ru/files/File/2016/2016_1/17_26_Vorobieva.pdfandhasjust
presentedindetailontheTolkovatelportalathttp://ttolk.ru/?p=26642.

Accordingtothesociologist,"only20percentofRussianstakean
activeinterestinpolitics,"butmuchlargersharesidentifyas
patriots,nationalistsorliberalist.Theusualexplanationforthis
divide,shesays,isthatRussians"delegate"politicstothe
governmentbutshereportsthatonly20percentbelievetheauthorities
arehonest.

Russians'interestinpoliticshasbeenfallingforageneration,
Vorobyovreports.In1987,54.4percentofRussianssaidtheywere
activelyinterestedinpoliticallife.Butby2013,thatfigurehad
fallento27.1andnowitisevenlower.Andoverthesameperiod,the
shareofthosewithnointerestinpoliticshasrisenalmost1200percent.

ThesociologistpointstoanotherparadoxinRussianviewsasexpressed
tosurveyresearchers.Ontheonehand,Russianvaluethedemocratic
rightsandfreedomstheyhaveacquiredbutontheother,"theyare
quiteskepticalabouttheinstitutionscalledtotransformdemocracy
intolife"andbelievethattheyneedastrongstatewithatoughleader.

AnotherparadoxVorobyovpointstoisthat"thepoliticalidentification
ofRussians"withthisorthattrend"doesnotalwaysdirectly
correspondtotheirelectoralchoices."Shearguesthatthisreflects
anincreasingdesireofRussianstosupportacenterasinthecentral
powerandthecenterofthespectrum.

YetanotherparadoxamongRussiansaboutpoliticsisthat"thehigh
levelofsupportforthepowersthatbe"iscombinedwithanequally
highlevelofalienationfromthestate,"alackoftrustinthe
majorityofgovernmentinstitutions,"andtheconvictionofthemajority
thatthestatedoesnotservetheirinterests.

Vorobyovconcludesthatthisleadstoasituationinwhich"the
populationsupportstheauthorities"notbecausethelattermeettheir
needsbutbecausethepopulationisafraidofchangesandthe
possibilitythathoweverbadthingsare,theycouldasaresultofany
changegetworse.

Thesociologistconcludesthat"inRussiansocietythereexistsmassive
supportfortheauthoritiesalongsidealowleveloftrustinspecific
governmentinstitutionsandasensethattheauthoritiesdonotsupport
ordinarypeople"andthat"thedesiretohavedemocraticrightsand
freedomsexistsinparallelwithsupportforastrongstate,afirm
hand,andpaternalism."

Itislikelythattheseparadoxes,whichreflectaspecificnationalset
ofexperiences,explainmanyoftheotherpollresultsoftencitied,
includingthosewhichappeartorepresentradicalbreakswithearlier
positionsbutinfactsimplymirrorthedivisionsandcontradictions
withinRussianminds.
[returntoContents]<#n0>
#11
Politkom.ru
April6,2016
MostRussiansnotinterestedingettingtruepictureofworld-analysis
YelenaPozdnyakova,FlightfromDiversity:HowRussiansConsumeInformation

Despitealltherestrictions,theRussianinformationarenaremains
quitepluralistic,somethingthattheproliferationoftheInternetin
thecountryisfacilitating.However,Russiansocietyisfarfromfully
usingthispotential.Andworldpracticehasnotmovedforwardmuchin
thissenseeither.WehaveanalysedtheRussianmediaspaceandthe
informationpracticesofRussiansociety,andhavereachedconclusions
thatarenotthatoptimistic.

Sometimesinarticlesbycommentatorsandsociologiststheideais
automaticallyacceptedthatlearningthenews"fromthetelevision"is
thelotofthe"socialperiphery",whichisundiscriminatinginits
choiceofsources,andthe"graymasses"whoareremotefromany
progressiveideas.InRussiathisispartlytrue,despitethecontinuing
penetrationoftheInternetintotheeverydaylivesofRussiansandthe
presenceofothertypesofmedia:insmalltowns,televisionistheonly
windowontotheworld.Ontheotherhand,unbiaseddatashowthat
televisionisalsothemainsourceofinformationforthe"social
centre":peoplewhoprefertoreceivetheirnewsfromthetelevision,
themajority.Moreover,therearealmostasmanyoftheminEuropeas
well.Atthesametime,confidenceintelevisionandothermedia,
informationhabitsetc-allofthisdetermineshowpeopleinterpret
information.Thatiswhyitisextremelyinterestingtoexamine
Russians'attitudestowardsthemediabasedonstatisticsandopinionpolls.

OnlyRussiansbelongingtoastatisticallyinsignificantminoritycan
makethetruthfulstatement"Idonotwatchtelevision"or"Idonot
haveatelevision",accordingtodatafrombothLevada-CentreandTNS
andNielsen:inonewayoranother,anabsolutemajorityofourfellow
countrymenwatchtelevision.AccordingtodatafromLevada-Centre
obtainedinMarch2014(thereportRussianMediaLandscape:Television,
Press,Internet),90percentofRussiansnamedtelevisionastheirmain
(mostfrequent)sourceforobtainingnewsinthecountryandinthe
world.AboutaquarterofRussiansjustasfrequentlylearntnewsfrom
thosearoundthemandfromtheInternet(inMoscowtheshareofthese
meansofobtaininginformationissubstantiallyhigher-47percentand
42percentrespectively).Newspapers,radio,andthesocialnetworks
areusedbyfewerthanone-fifthofRussiansforobtainingthelatest
news,andmagazinesarereadbyjustfivepercent.Theresultsobtained
byNielsenforRussiaweresomewhatdifferent(TheNielsenGlobal
GenerationalAttitudesReport,2015):accordingtothesedata,just61
percentofRussianslearnthenewsfromtelevisionwhiletheshareof
"virtual"socialcommunicationsinformingapictureoftheworldis
muchhigherthanunderLevada'sdata:almost40percentofcitizens
learnthenewsfromfriendsandthesocialnetworks.Another46percent
usesearchenginesforthis.

Onthewhole,Nielsen'sdataareverysimilar(exceptforthefigureson
television)totheLevada-CentredataforMoscow.Atthesametime,
Russianresearcherspointtothefactthatinthebigcitiesa
significantnumberofcitizensseektodiversifytheirsourcesof
information.The"socialcentre"oftenusesthreeormorenewssources,
whilethe"socialperiphery"usesoneortwo,butthisperiphery
comprisesmorethan70percentofcitizensand55percentofthem
almostexclusivelywatchtelevision.Evenamongthosewhohavehigher
education,highconsumerstatus,usetheInternet,ordonotapproveof
theregime'sactivities,atleastthree-quarterswatchthenewsonTV.
Peoplebusywiththeirowndailylivesdonothavethetimetostudy
othersourcesintheirsearchofnews,andthismeansthatnewsdoesnot
haveahighvalueandtakesplaceinaworldremotefromtheir
interests.Thegapbetweenthenumberofpeoplewholearnnewsfromthe
televisionandtheproportionofthosewhousesocialnetworkstoobtain
informationshowsthatasignificantproportionofRussiansdonot
discussthestateofaffairsinthecountryandtheworldwiththose
aroundthem.
However,itwouldbeamistaketothinkthatthespreadofInternet
mediaandthediversificationofsourcesofinformationwillreducetoa
minimumtheexclusiveinfluenceoftelevisiononthemindsofourfellow
citizenswithinashortperiodoftime.Televisionremainsanimportant
sourceofinformationaboutthecountryandtheworldfor55percentof
Europeans(Nielsen'sdata).Amongtheoldergenerations(startingwith
generationX-35-49yearolds),thisfigureapproachesthenationalone
andexceedsit,butevenamonggenerationZ(upto20yearsold),half
watchtelevision.Admittedly,Europeansinallagecohortsareactively
diversifyingtheirsourcesofinformation,soalargegroupofpeople
learningnewsfromonlyonesourceisformedalmostnowhere.Andof
course,theInternetintheformofsearchenginesthatassemble
headlines,andintheformofon-lineversionsofthetraditionalmedia,
andintheformofthesocialnetworks,hasbecomefirmlyestablishedin
theinformationhabitsofEuropeans,particularlyofyoungpeople.The
disappearingformatforpresentingnewsis,asmightbeexpected,the
printedpress:attentiontoitamongtheagecohortsdecreasesasage
decreases.

Intheory,bydiversifyingsources,eachperson,likeacompetent
investor,isreducingrisks-inthiscasetherisksofdisinformation,
manipulation,andexternalinfluenceontheperson'sopinion.However,
judgingbyfurtheranalysis,fortheformationofanindependentand
moreorlessobjectiveopinionbytheconsumerofinformation,whatis
importantistheinitialhabitofworkingwithdifferentsources,a
greatdesiretounderstandtheagenda,andanunderstandingthatany
sourcescanbebiasedinonewayoranother.Otherwise,despitethe
extensiveopportunitiesforusingvariousmeansofobtaining
information,theindividualwill"adjust"theminsuchawaythatthe
spreadofpositionsinthemisminimal-tominimizetheirown
discomfortandeffortsto"digest"theinformation.Russiansareatthe
momentalongwayfromobjectivity,astheLevadaresearchshows:by
choosingoneortwosourcesofinformation,amongwhichtelevisionis
themostsignificant,citizenscondemnthemselvestodisinformation-
bothintermsofthestyleofthepresentationofthenewsandinterms
ofitsselection.Itisworthnotingthatwithsuchanapproachto
creatinganinformationpictureoftheworldbyeachcitizen,evenif
themediaweredependentnotonthestatebutonotherplayers(for
example,bigbusiness),citizenswouldstillnotbeabletoformamore
appropriatenotionofreality.

Insituationswherethemediadependontheregime,theemergenceofnew
waysofconveyinginformationtotheconsumeralongsidealowlevelof
interestamongcitizensthemselvesineventsinthecountryandthe
worldalsomeansanincreaseinopportunitiesfortheideologizationand
politicizationofthepopulation.Growingtiredoftheabundanceofnews
(orsimplynotinterestedinthe"outsideworld),peopleprefertobe
entertained,butifnotapoliticalthenattheveryleastavalue-based
connotationcanbegiventoanyentertainment.Thiscanbeclearlyseen
fromtheexampleofHollywood(thehighvalueloadoffilmsforthemass
audience)andtheexampleofRussiantelevisionprogrammes-for
example,theideological"transformation"ofKVN.

Television:Informationhegemon

AccordingtoLevada-Centredata,theadvantagesoftelevisionoverother
channelsforobtainingnewsaregraduallybeingreducedforRussiaifwe
lookatthelongterm.Thus,inarecentarticleforSlon.ru,the
centre'sdirector,LevGudkov,presentsthisinformation:in2009,94
percentofthosepollednamedtelevisionastheirmainsourceof
information,in2015-85percent,andthisisalongsideamajor
reductioninconfidenceintelevision.Admittedly,forthesakeof
fairnessitshouldbenotedthatconfidencealsofellinothersources
ofinformation,soTVwasstilltheleader.

Inanycase,thereareanumberofreasonsfortelevision'ssuccessasa
sourceofnewsinRussiaandinEurope.Amongthemisthefactorofthe
lackofneedforanyefforttoobtaininformation,whichisensuredby
itsclarity(thankstotheuseofbothaudioandvideoandtextualand
graphicinformation).Televisionnewsisalsoexceptionallyconvenient
becausesuchinformationcanbeconsumedwhiledoingotherthingsin
parallel.Thus,accordingtoNielsen'sdata,Russiansaloneandinthe
familycircleprefertodinewhilewatchingtelevisionprogrammes.

Asmightbeexpected,thestatechannelsarethemostpopularamong
Russians.AccordingtodatafromLevada-Centre(forJune2014),82per
centofRussianswatchednewsonFirstChannelmoreorlessregularly,
71percentonRussia-1,andfollowingthembyalargemarginNTV:48
percent.Russians'verylowlevelofinterestinreginalandlocal
television(around13percent)issignificant:apparently,itis
possibletoobtainthemainnewsatalocallevelthroughthe
"grapevine",theperceptionofregionalchannelsas"amateurish"by
comparisonwiththefederalonesissignificant,andinadditionthe
factorofquitealowlevelofinterestinthelocalagendaalsoexists.

ManyresearchershavenotedtherapidincreaseinRussians'interestin
televisionnewssincetheeventsinUkrainebut,surprisingly,themain
beneficiaryofthisprocessturnedouttobethechannelRussia-24:
twiceasmanycitizensthaninOctober2012startedtowatchitandthe
channeltookastrongfourthplaceinthespectrumofRussians'
preferences.FirstChannelandRussia-1alsowonanadditionalaudience
althoughonalesserscale.Butalltheeventsintheinformation
pictureshadnoinfluenceonNTV:itsaudiencedidnotchangeatall,
andthesamethingwasobservedwithRen-TV.Thesechannelsfirmly
occupiedtheirniches,andtheyarenotattractingnewviewersofnews
programmes.

Moreover,itispossibletocomparethetimeonairthatnewsprogrammes
occupyonthechannels.IfweignoreRussia-24,aspecialchannelwhere
anyonewhosodesirescanlearnthenewsatanytimeduringtheday,
thenthenextchannelprovidingthemaximumamountoftimetonews
programmeseverydaywillbeRussia-1.Admittedly,itneedstobetaken
intoaccountthatthischannelgivessomeairtimetoregionalandlocal
newsprogrammes.Nevertheless,viewersofthefederalchannelhavean
opportunityeverydaytogetinvolvedinpoliticalanalysisandon
Sundaytheycanenjoyitforasmuchastwo-and-a-halfhours-longer
thanonotherchannels.Russia-1'scompetitorshaveaboutthesame
amountoftime-betweentwo-and-a-halfandalmostthreehoursonairis
takenupbynews(i.e.atleast10percentofairtime).Theyalso
competeonanequalbasisintheproductionofanalyticalprogrammes-
thosethathelpcitizens"tocorrectlyinterpret"thenews.

Itispossibletotraceratingsfornewsandanalyticalprogrammeson
RussianchannelsfromdataprovidedbytheTNScompany.Onthewhole,
thesphereforratingtelevisioninRussiaturnedouttobethefield
foranumberofrowslinkedtothestrivingofthebigplayersonthe
televisionmarket(firstchannel,VGTRK,theGazprom-Mediaholding
company,theNationalMediaGroup,andSTS-Media[CTCMedia])tolimit
TNS'smonopolyonresearch.FirstChannelevenlauncheditsownproject
toevaluateratings,butitabandonedtheidea.Therewerealsoattempts
toinviteotherlargecompaniesforevaluation,andaccusationsof
unscrupulousnessagainstthemonopoly-holder.Theproblemisthe
difficultyofmeasuringtheaudience,andtheneedtomakelarge
investmentsinequipment.

Nevertheless,theinternationalcompanyisstillcontinuingtostudythe
audienceoftheRussiantelevisionchannels,whileadmittedly
restrictingitselftotheurbanpopulation(intownsofover100,000
people)andnotcountingchildrenuptofouryearsofage.Information
programmesfirmlyoccupytopplacesintheweeklysurveysandareinthe
topthreeofthechannel'smostpopularprogrammes.Thus,inDecember
2015newsandanalyticalprogrammesonTelevisionFirstChanneland
Russia-1werepresentinthe10mostpopularprogrammeswithratingsof
6-8percent(theshareofthosewhowatchedtheprogrammeoftheentire
targetaudience,which,ifweusedatafromthe2010census,comprises
around70millionpeople).Thismeansthataccordingtoroughestimates,
themostpopularnewsprogrammesarewatchedsimultaneouslybybetween
fourandsixmillionpeople.Itseemsthatthisisnotthatmany,
especiallyifyouimaginethescaleofthecountry.Forexample,the
Metronewspaperislookedatbynearlytwomillionpeopleaday,and
morethan20millionvisiteitherYandexorMail.ru.Buttelevision's
strengthisitsaround-the-clockbroadcastingandtherelativediversity
ofchannels,soeffectivelynewsonTVsucceedsduetothenumberof
broadcasts.

Theillusionofdiversityisalsosupportedbythechannelsthemselves
whochooseslightlydifferentstylesforpresentingnewsmaterial,not
tomentiontheobviousspecializationsoftheindividualchannels:the
"distortions"ofNTVandRen-TVserveasthebasisformanyjokes.But
therearenodifferencesintheessentialapproachtonewsandvalues
thatthestatechannels"promote",whichleavestheRussiancitizenwith
asinglepossibleinterpretationofwhatishappening.Initselfthis
hasanegativeeffectoninterestinthenewsagenda,whichisnotthat
greatanyway:peopledonottakeinthenewsthatisreallyimportant
fortheirlives(forexample,fromthesphereoffinancialregulationor
concerninglocalproblems),nottomentionpoliticalandforeignpolicy
problems.Viewingtelevisionnewsprogrammesisnolongersomuchaway
oflearningwhatishappeninginthecountryandtheworldasaritual,
aroutinepastime.

Internet:"Kitties"versuscivilposition

TheInternet,despiteasignificantproportionofhouseholdshaving
accesstoit(accordingtodatafromJ'son&PartnersConsulting29.7
millionhouseholdshadbroadbandaccesstotheInternetatthestartof
2015,andbytheendof2015thenumberofusers,ascalculatedbythe
GfKagency,comprised84million),isnotthemainsourceofinformation
abouttheworldandparticularlythemainsourceofnews.Atthesame
time,thehabitofusingtheInternetindailylifeisgraduallytaking
root,whichmakesthiscommunicationchannelthemainrivalfor
traditionaltelevisioninthelong-term.

ItisobviousthatRussiansusetheInternetdifferently.Thus,GfK
citesinformationthatamongRussiansbetweentheagesof16and29,97
percentusetheInternet-foryoungpeopleeveninsmalltownsithas
becomecommonplace.Itsaudiencecanonlybeexpandednowbyexpanding
theaudienceintheolderagegroupsandthis,ofcourse,ismoredifficult.

AccordingtoTNSRussia,thenumberofRussiansaccessingthewebdaily
comprisesslightlymorethan60percent.Butdataiscitedonlyfor
townswithpopulationsofatleast100,000andalsoamongthe12-54age
group.Accordingtodatafromthe2010census,theanalysiscallson
around40-45percentofthecitizensofRussia-thegroupofthemost
activeageandlivingincomparatively"civilized"conditions.Itwould
belogicaltoassumethattheremainingcitizensdonothavedaily
accesstotheweband,consequently,areunlikelytousetheInternetas
theirmainsourceofnews.Ifweweretoestimatetheproportionof
Russia'sgeneralpopulationaccessingtheInterneteveryday(andthe
estimateisveryrough),thentheywouldmakeuparoundone-thirdof
Russia'spopulationorabout50millionpeople.

Whatdothesenotional30percentluckypeopledoontheweb?A
significantnumberofthesepeoplefirstchecktheirmailonpopular
platforms:Yandex(27.75million),Mail.ru(22.63million),Google
(almost14million)asofDecember2015,theyoccupyfirst,secondand
fourthplacerespectivelyintheratingofvisitstoresources,
accordingtoTNSRussiadata.ThemainRussiansocialnetworkVKontakte
isinthirdplace.Itisvisitedbymorethan22millionoftheRussians
whoopenbrowserseveryday.ThepopularityofforeignFacebook,which
iswidelyseenasapoliticalplatform,issubstantiallylower-itis
openedeverydaybyapproximatelyjustthreepercentofthepopulation
-4.329millionpeople,evenfewerareinterestedinTwitter,fewerthan
one-and-a-halfmillionpeoplevisititeveryday.Thepopularityof
blogsontheLiveJournalsitehasnotyetwanedentirely:1.777million
peopleopenLiveJournaladay.Itturnsoutthattherearemore
connoisseursof"longreads"inRussiathanthosewhoprefershort
"tweets",andthereareevenmorewhoprefertolookat"photos"on
Instagram(thereare1.684millionofthem).
Thefirstmediaoutletthatcouldbecalledtraditional-theRBK
website-isactuallybetweenLiveJournalandInstagram,in15thplace
intherankingofdailyvisits.TheRIANovostisiteisalsopresent
amongthetop20mostpopular,itterminatestheranking.Itisvisited
by1.262millionusersaday,thatislessthanonepercentof
Russians.However,despitethefactthatitlooksverymodestinterms
oftheshareofvisits,thepopularresourcesontheInternetarereally
popularinabsolutefigures.Thus,Yandexastheleaderisaccessedby
morethan27millionpeopleaday,43.5millionaweek,and52.5million
peopleamonth-effectivelymorethanone-thirdoftheentire
populationofRussia.

TheYandexcompanyalsocarriesoutresearchintotheInternetaudience,
theresultsofwhichareofexceptionalinterestfromthepointofview
ofaportraitofInternetusers.Thus,thecompany'sstatisticsconfirm
theopinionthatuserschoosecertaingroupsofresourcesandrarely
readresourcesfromothergroups:theymanagedtomakeaclear
distinctionbetweentheaudiencesofthewebsitesofthetelevision
channels,bignewsagenciesetc,andtheaudiencesofthebusinesspress
andpublicationsforprofessionals(incidentally,RIANovostifallsinto
thefirstgroup,andRBKintothesecond).Agroupoffansofonline
publicationsofaliberalpersuasionemergedandalsoagroupofreaders
ofdailynewspapers,orrathertheirInternetversions.Finally,and
thisisinteresting,FirstChanneldidnotfallintothegroupthat
containedtheremainingtelevisionchannelsbutratherintoagroup
whereinthetraditionalsenseprimarily"women's"publicationswere
concentrated(Internetmagazinesabout"thestars",runningahousehold,
abouthowtolookafterafamilyetc).Evidently,FirstChannel's
websiteisusednottoobtainnewsbuttowatchprogrammesbroadcastby
thechannelonline.Thus,itturnsoutthatthegroups'audiencesreally
donotoverlapandthismeansthatsocialdialogueisnotconductedvia
themedia,andthedifferentsocial(orideological)groupslivein
theirownseparateworlds.Thisisclearlyseenfromtheexampleof
Facebookwheretheuser'sfeedisbasedontheirpreferences,ultimately
sealingthemintoarangeofmoreorlessthesamepeople,thoughtsand
events.

Nevertheless,ahugenumberofpeople,astheTNSdatashow,startto
browsewebpagesbyvisitingthewebsitesofYandexorMail.ru.Itcan
beassumed,incidentally,thatpeoplewhovisitoneoftheseportalsdo
notvisittheother(ortheydososignificantlylessfrequently).The
totalnumberofuserswhovisitoneoftheportalseachdaycomprises
slightlymorethan50million(which,althoughitisveryrough,is
stillmoreorlessinlinewithpreviousestimatesofthenumberof
dailyusersoftheInternet.Bothportals,inadditiontohostingmail,
alsooffertheirvisitorsaselectionofnews(createdautomatically),
whichreflectsthenewsattractingthemostmediaattention.Therange
ofnewsofferedonitsfirstpagebyMail.ruissignificantlybroader
thanthatofYandex.

AccordingtoTNSdata,Yandex'shomepage(withthetopfivenewsitems)
isopenedeverydaybymorethan20millionpeopleandslightlymore
thansixmillionvisititsnews(andonaverageview3.5pages).While
visitsofMail.rulookmuchmoremodestagainstthisbackdrop:thehome
pageisopenedby14millionpeopleandthenewsbyjust3.8million.
Admittedly,onaverageavisitorofMail.ruviewsslightlymorecontent
(3.9pages).Soitisnotsurprisingthattheprinciplesforselecting
Yandex'stopnewsstorieshaverepeatedlycausedrowswithapolitical
contextwhenithasbeenactivelydiscussedonthewebwhether
Yandex.Novostineedstoberecognizedasamediaoutletandthe
correspondingliabilitybeestablishedfortheservice.Despite
scandalousexamples-intheviewofpatriotsandconservatives-of
Yandex.Novosti's"anti-Russian"attitudetowardsinformingRussiansand
alsoattentiontotheproblemonthepartofVladimirPutin,therowwas
hushedup-orcametonothingitself.Possiblybecausethenewsthat
appearsonthehomepageisnotofgreatinteresttoawideaudience,
despitetheattimesextremelyflamboyantheadlines.Admittedly,
deputiesfromtheCPRF[CommunistPartyoftheRussianFederation]and
JustRussiahaverecentlystartedtolobbyforrestrictionsfornews
aggregators.
However,itisnotatallnecessarytobeamediaoutletforanInternet
resourcetoattractattention,particularlywithquiteanarrow
audience,anexampleofwhichisdemonstratedbythesocialnetworks.
VKontakteisapopularsourceofinformationfortheyoungaudience-to
suchanextentthatperhapstheabsolutemajorityofpeopleagedbetween
12and30haveapageonthissocialnetwork-thatinfactthelackof
suchapagegivesrisetoquestions.DespitethefactthatFacebookis
farbehindthisnetworkintermsofthenumberofhitsaday,weekand
month,itisalsooneofthemostvisitedprojectsinRussia.

Foralongtimenow,informationinthesocialnetworksspreadsnotonly
fromusertouserbutalsoviapublicpageswherecontentiscreated
likeinthemoretraditionalmedia.Publicpagesalsogeneratememesand
transmitthemtogetherwiththenews,enrichingitwithnewnuancesand
meanings,andinthissensethenewsthattheyprovideisassimilated
verywellbytheiraudience.Itmakessensetopayattentiontothemost
replicatedcontent.

ThelistoftoppublicpagesonVKontakteincludesmainlyentertainment
pages:publicpagescontainingjokes,pictures,"lifeadvice",reviews
ofmoviesandmusic,recipes,etc.So,essentially,notasinglepublic
pagethatpublishesnews.Andwhiletheaudienceofsubscribersofthe
mostpopularentertainmentpublicpagesexceedseightmillionpeople,it
doesnotevenreachonemillionforthemostpopularnewspage.Atthe
sametimethesocialnetworksaresocialnetworksinordertoprovide
peoplewithasemblanceofpersonalcontactwithnewsmakers.Themost
popularmanonVkontakte-PremierDmitriyMedvedev-hasmorethantwo
millionsubscribers.Butotherpopularindividualshavenothingtodo
withnewsinitssocio-politicalcontext,soitshouldbeacknowledged
thatVKontaktedoesnotperformanyfunctioninthecapacityofanews
source.

Facebookseemstobeaimedatanaudiencethatismoreinterestedinthe
political-economicandsocialagenda.But,firstly,theactualsizeof
thisaudienceissignificantlysmallerthanVKontakte'sand,secondly,
inactualfactthisisnotquitetrue.Brandpagesenjoythegreatest
(andreallyhuge)popularityonthissocialnetwork.Infirstplaceis
NikeFootballRussia-accordingtodatafromfacebook.ksan.comasof
March2015thispagehadbeenlikedby36millionusersfromRussia.But
whataboutthemedia?Infirstplaceintermsofthenumberoflikesis
AdMe,previouslyaportalaboutdesignandadvertising,andnowitis
moreofalifestyleblog.Thispagehasmorethan1.5millionuserswho
seenewsfromitintheirfeed.Bywayofcomparison,thesamenumberof
peopleseeupdatesfromthebrandEvianinRussia(20thplaceamong
brands).AndinsecondplaceistheVesti.rupublication,almost1.4
millionsubscribers.Interestinthispage,accordingtothesamedata,
increasedverygradually,startingin2012,sotherecanbenoquestion
ofarapidsurgeininterestinthewakeoftheUkrainianeventsin
2014:about300,000peoplelikedthepageforthefirsttimebetween
January2014andJanuary2015,thisisevenslightlylessthanbetween
January2013andJanuary2014.ApartfromAdMeandVesti,thetop10
mediapagesonRussianFacebookalsoincludeRIANovosti,thetelevision
channelDozhd,Vedomosti,Lenta.ru,Gazeta.ru,FirstChannel,National
GeographicRussia,andNaukaIZhizn[ScienceandLife].The
representationofsocio-politicalmediainthislistisverysignificant
anditsideologicalorientationhintsatthepolarizationofpolitical
discourseonFacebook,justlikeinsocietyasawhole.Inaddition,
thisdataprovesthatdespitetheexistenceofallthemeansfor
monitoringthenewsonthesocialnetwork,onlyasmallproportionof
usersusethistool.

Infact,asalsointhedatacitedaboveontheuseofInternetmediato
obtaininformationasawhole.Russianshavesufficientaccessto
informationontheInternet,anditisnotonlyaquestionof
information"imposed"bythestatebutalsoofotheropinionsoneach
problem.Theyalsohaveanopportunitytodiscussanynews.However,
thisisbecomingthelotonlyofaminorityinterestedinthe
socio-politicalagenda,whilemostcitizensprefertousetheInternet
forentertainmentandseekinginformationfortheirownneeds.
DespitethefactthatWesterncountriesseemtoustobesignificantly
moredevelopedfromthepointofviewofopportunitiestoconsume
informationontheInternet,itcannotbesaidthatcitizensinEurope
onthewholeusetheseopportunitiesactively,atleastdefinitelynot
inallcountries.Eurostatcitesinterestingstatisticsthatareevena
bitshocking:theorganizationisobservingasectionofpeoplein
variouscountrieswhohavenevergoneontotheInternetunderany
circumstancesintheirentirelives.Peopleagedbetween16and74are
beingstudiedandthelatestdataisfor2015.Theindicatorstypicalof
NorwayandLuxembourgseem"appropriate"tous:oneandtwopercentof
thepopulationrespectively.InsuccessfulGermanytherearealready10
percentsuchpeople,inFranceitis11percent.InPoland,Lithuania,
PortugalandItalymorethanonequarterofthepopulationisnot
personallyfamiliarwiththeInternet.InBulgariaandRomaniathereare
aroundone-thirdsuchcitizens.AndinTurkey,whichalsogotintothe
Europeansample-44percent.

Less"shocking"butstillusefulinformationisprovidedbyEurostat
withregardtowhichcountriesofEuropehavethelargestproportionof
peoplewhousetheInternet"often":thatis,atleastonceaquarter.
FromthisindicatoritcanbeclearlyseenhowtheInternethasbecome
commonplaceforNorthernEuropebutforthesouthitisnotyetan
importantpartofeverydaylife.Thisislinkedbothtothelevelof
urbanization,andtothestructureoftheeconomy,andtoeconomic
development,andtoculturalcharacteristics.Atthesametime,the
broadspreadoftheInternetenablesoldcommunicationhabitstobe
changed.Thus,Eurostatcitesdataabouthowmanypeopleusethe
Internetinvariouscountriesforcommunicatingwiththestateand
municipalpowerbodies.TheScandinaviancountrieswheremorethan50
percentofcitizensinteractwiththegovernmentonline,aswellas
NorthernandWesternEuropewheretheInternetisusedasa
communicationschannelinbothdirectionsbybetween30and40percent,
areverydifferentinthisrespecttothesouthandeast,whichare
closertoRussiaintermsofthisfigure.Ifthegovernmentistobe
believed,thenumberofcitizensregisteredontheGosuslugportalis
approaching14percent.Approximatelythesameproportionas
communicateswiththestateviatheInternetinGreece,Croatiaand
Bulgaria.TherateofgrowthintheInternetaudienceoftheGosuslug
portalisimpressivesincewewillovertakeItaly,Poland,Lithuania,
andPortugalwithregardtothisfigureinthenextfewyears.Thereis
alsoanoutsiderintermsofthisindicatorintheEU-Romania,where
onlysevenpercentofcitizenscommunicatewiththestateviatheInternet.

Nevertheless,interactingwiththestateviatheInternet,whichis
usualinthenorthofEurope,doesnotnecessarilymeanahighlevelof
interestinnewsalthoughthereisanecdotalevidencethatonlinenews
isattractingsignificantattentionamongtheaudience.Forexample,in
Germanyin2009abouthalfofallInternetusersstatedthattheyused
thewebtokeepupwithevents(datafromtheEuropeanJournalism
Centre).WhileinItalywhereInternetpenetrationisnotasmarkedas
intheNorth,thesituationin2009wasverysimilartotheRussianone:
thefirstfourplacesintherankingofpagevisitsweretakenbysearch
engines/mailservices/newsaggregators,andthentheInternetpageof
theLaRepubblicanewspaperwasinfifthplace.InNorway,oneofthe
countriesthatstartedtodeveloptheInternetearlierthanothers,by
2009theuseoftheworldwidewebtoobtainnewshadalreadyexceeded
figuresformediatypessuchasradioandnewspapers.

Printedpressandradio:Collectiveunconscious

Thesetypesofmediaarelogicallycombinedinasinglesectionsince
theyareintheprocessof"dyingout"aschannelsforobtainingnews.
Thisdoesnotmeanthattheyaregraduallyceasingtobeindemand,this
appliestoradioinparticular,buttheyareveryrarelyusedbypeople
forgettingacquaintedwiththeagenda.

Themassreadingofnewspapershasbecomeathingofthepast,andthis
hasbeenactivelyfacilitatedbythespreadoftheInternet.FromLevada
CentredatagatheredbetweenNovember2003andMarch2014,itcanbe
clearlyseenhowpeople'sinterestintheprintedpresshasfallen:the
numberofpeoplewhodonotreadnewspapersregularlyincreasedfrom59
percentto67percentandthenumberoffansofseveralpublications
almosthalved(to10percent).Typically,pollsinEuropeshowa
reductionininterestintheprintedpressfromgenerationto
generation,butinanumberofcountriestheprintedpressis
maintainingitsposition.ThusinGermany,accordingtodatafromthe
EuropeanJournalismCentre,interestintheprintedpresshasbeen
retainedandcitizensreadlocalandregionalpublicationsquiteoften.
Inprinciple,thestrongpresenceofregionalprintedmediainall
segmentsoffrequencyofpublicationisalsotypicaloftheRussianregions.

Whenchoosingwhattoreadfromnewspapersandmagazines,Russians
settleonpublicationswithbroad-basedtopics,moreoverthosethatmost
likelydonotincludepoliticalnews.Letuscomparetheratingsof
dailyandweeklynewspapersandmagazines:letustakedatathathas
beencollectedforRussiaasawholebythecompanyTNS.Thenumberof
newspaperreadersistheaveragenumberofreadersofasingleedition,
inthiscasetheaveragefortheperiodfromMaytoOctober2015.

Thedatashowedthatinthecaseofdailyandweeklynewspapers,
residentsofMoscowandStPetersburgmakeaverylargecontributionto
theaudience,andsometimestheproportionofreadersfromthetwo
capitalscomprisesmuchmorethanhalf.Thisisnotsurprisinginthe
situationwith,forexample,theMetronewspaper.Generallyspeaking,
thisnewspaperrepresentsagreatexampleofhowthemediahas
successfullyoccupieditsnichebyprovidingdiverseand"light"content
whenthereaderneedsthis.

RossiyskayaGazeta,whichisgenerallyspeakingamediaoutletofstate
importancebecauseoftheneedtopublishlegislativeacts,hasalmost
halfasmanyreaders.Weeklypublicationsarenotthatdifferentin
termsoftheirpopularityalthoughthegapbetweentheleader(Argumenty
iFakty)andthenumbertwo(KomsomolskayaPravda)ismorethana
quarterofthenumberofreadersofthelatter.

ItisworthnotingthatArgumentyiFaktyisapublicationthatfocusses
specificallyoncoveringsocio-politicalandeconomictopics,moreover
itkeepsthefocusonthepersonalconsequencesofthevariouseventsin
thecountryandtheworld.Thissame"genre"isalsoretainedinthe
paperversionofthenewspaper.Atthesametime,KomsomolskayaPravda
initsweeklyformatveryactivelyconcentratesonthe
political-economicagenda,whilethepaperweeklyversionhasmoreofan
entertainmentformat.Asaresult,KomsomolskayaPravdalosesthe
competitiontootherdailysuppliersofsocio-politicalnews(andfirst
andforemost,totelevision),andatthesametimecompetesinthe
entertainmentweeklysegmentwithsimilarpublications"witha
televisionguide".

Anotherinterestingphenomenonisthepresenceofthedailybusiness
newspaperKommersantintherankingofpublicationswiththelargest
audience.Kommersant'scompetitorsinthisnichearealongwaybehind.
Norarebusinessmagazinesandnewspaperspresenteitheramongthe
weekliesorthemonthlies.Thiscanbeexplained,meanwhile,notonlyby
readers'lackofinterestinananalysisofeventsbutalsobythefact
thatasignificantsectionoftheaudienceofthesepublicationsismore
usedtousingtheirInternetversion.

Whilethe"domination"ofentertainmentpublicationshasnotyet
completelysqueezedoutthesocio-politicalamongprintednewspapersand
magazines,thenamongtheradiostationsthisisalreadyafait
accompli.AccordingtoTNSdataforRussiaforthesecondhalfof2015,
theleadersintermsoftheaveragenumberoflistenerswere:Yevropa
Plyus,DorozhnoyeRadio,Avtoradio,RusskoyeRadio,andRetroFM.Allof
theseareexclusivelyentertainmentradiostations.Letuscomparetheir
audienceswiththoseofthesocio-politicalstations.Around11.325
millionpeoplelistentoYevropaPlyuseveryday.Mayak,RadioRussia
andVestiFMhavealmostthreetimesfewer,EkhoMoskvyfourtimes
fewer,andKomsomolskayaPravdaandBusinessFM10timesfewerormore.

EveninMoscow,despitethepresenceofEkhoMoskvy,theleadersinthe
firstfiveintermsoftheTNSdailyratings(fortheperiodof
October-December2015)werestillAvtoradio,RusskoyeRadio,Yevropa
Plyusand...RadioShanson.Allofthisconfirmsthepointthatradio
hasbecomeaspecificmediaoutletformotoristsandhascompletelylost
itspositionintheguiseofamediaoutletandhasturnedintoa
variantofamusicplaylist.Fromtimetotime,19percentof
Muscoviteslistentonewsonthemusicalradiostations-accordingto
datafromLevadaCenterforMarch2014.

Mainconclusions

Asthestatisticscitedaboveshow,theInternetisgraduallycatching
televisionup"intermsofviews",butbothnewssitesandradioand
printedpublicationsarestillalongwayfromthepopularityofnews
programmesonFirstChannelorRussia-1.Thesecretoftheirpopularity
ismostlikelynotthatcitizenslikethetopics,orstyle,orthe
presenterofthenewsbutthatviewingtelevisionontheirfavourite
channelsatacertaintimehasbecomeahabit.Inconnectionwiththis,
itcanbeassumedthatRussiansdonotpaythatmuchattentiontothe
contentofnewsprogrammes(withtheexception,ofcourse,ofthe
sensationalstories).

Atthesametime,personalcontactsplayaverybigroleasamechanism
forobtainingandinterpretinginformation:thediscussionofnewsin
thefamily,withfriends,acquaintancesandsoon.Thisisperhapsthe
simplestwayof"fencingoff"theirpictureoftheworldfrom
informationandopinionsthreatingtodestroythestereotypestheyhave
developed.Russiansminimizetheirinteractionwith"alien"information,
somethingthatcanbeseenveryclearlyfromtheexampleofvisitsto
newsresourcesontheInternet.Thewebdoesnotunitepeoplewith
differentviews,butjustemphasizestheirdifferences.

Moreover,thestatisticsfortheuseoftheInternetindicatethatnews
informationonlyinterestsacomparativelysmallnumberofcitizens-
andthisisdespitethefactthatInternetpublicationscurrently
possessgreaterfreedomofexpressionofanypositionthantelevision
does.Newshasnotbecomeaninanywaylarge-scalesubjectfor
discussiononthesocialnetworks(despitethefactthatasitseemsto
manyusersofFacebook:thisisjustinthefeedsofasmallgroupof
people)wherethereiseveryopportunitytocreatecontentand
relativelyfreeinterpretation.Themainsuppliersofnewsinthepast-
radioandtheprintedpress-havealmostcompletelylosttheir
importanceinthiscapacityhavingbecomemoreofareceptaclefor
entertainingcontent.Themainconclusionfromthis-thereisalackof
anyinterestamongtheoverwhelmingmajorityofpeopleinadetailed
studyofthenewsandobtainingatruepictureoftheworldonadaily
basis.
[returntoContents]<#n0>

#12
www.opendemocracy.net
April21,2016
Russia'sregions:federalismanditsdiscontents
CreatingtheappearanceofstabilityistheRussianpoliticalelite's
primarygoal.Yetcolonial-likeruleoverthecountry'sregions,
combinedwithalackofcivicactivity,harmstheKremlin'slegitimacy
ontheground.
ByBadmaByurchiev
BadmaByurchievwasborninKalmykiain1973,andhasworkedasa
journalistsince2003.HecurrentlyworksforKavpolit,wherehecovers
DagestanandKalmykia.HehaspreviouslyworkedforBolshoyKavkazand
CaucasianKnot.

SinceVladimirPutin'srisetopowerin1999,theRussianauthorities
haverespondedtoanythreat,whetherrealorimagined,withrepressive
legislation.

Thehistoryofthepowerverticalisthusoneofthemethodical
restrictionofcitizen'srightsandfreedoms.
Meanwhile,Russia'sover-centralisedstateisincreasinglyisolating
itselffromthe"multinationalpeopleoftheRussianFederation",which
is,astheConstitutionstates,thesolesourceofauthorityinthecountry.

Thus,Russia'spoliticalelitesarenotonlylosingtheirso-called
"connectionwiththeland",buterodingpopularfaithintheelite's
legitimacyasrulers.

That'sbecauseinRussiatoday,relationsbetweenthecentreandthe
regionsarereminiscentmoreofanimperialmetropolisanditscolonies.
TheauthoritiesseeRussiaasanever-endingsourceofnaturalandhuman
resources.

Theelitesusurptheincomederivedfromtheseresourcesascolonisers:
themajorityofthepopulationarepaidenoughjusttosurvive.Andif
you'redissatisfied,there'salwaysanappropriatechargetobefoundin
theCriminalCode.

Self-determinationanddesecration

Theendof2015sawElista,thecapitalofKalmykia,hostacongressof
theKalmykianpeople.Forarepublicofthissize,thecongresswas
large.Butneithernationalmedia,northelocalofficialpresscovered
thiseventinanyway.

Perhapsthelackofcoveragewasamistake.

Theforum's200delegatesendedupvotingforaresolutionthatledwith
thedemandforanewconstitutionfortherepublic,onethatwould
reflectthe"inviolablerightoftheOirat-Kalmykpeopletodecidetheir
ownfate."Thisisimportant,becausewhenKalmykiafirstbecamea
subjectoftheRussianFederation,itslegislaturedidnotmention
self-determination-unlikethelegislaturesofothernationalrepublics
thatjoinedRussiaafterthefalloftheUSSR.

KalmykiareturnedtonationalnewsatthestartofApril2016whenan
athletefromneighbouringDagestanwasforcedtoapologisepubliclyfor
desecratingastatueoftheBuddha.

ThesestoriesrevealtheRussianmedia'spriorities.Russianviewers
findinterethnicconflictsfarmoreinterestingthanpeople'sattempts
toself-organiseanddefendtheirrights.

Theeventsthemselvesarealsorevealing.

TheKalmykpeople'scongressmayhavebeenrepresentative,butitwas
thesecondincident-whenanoffending"outsider"hadtobepunished-
thatturnedouttobemorepowerfulinbringingpeopletogether.

"Peopleonlyreacttostrong,directsourcesofdispleasure.However,
whenit'sacaseofotherimportantmatters,noonecomesoutto
protest,"aKalmykbloggercomplained,speakingofthelocal
population'spreference"tonotreacttotheauthoritiesatall"."After
all,youcanboilafrogaliveifyouraisethetemperatureinapan
slowly-itwon'tjumpout."

Theblogger'smetaphormightbeabitheavy-handed,butitreflectsthe
relationshipbetweenRussia'sauthoritiesandthepublicalltoowell.
Thereisonethingmissingfromthismetaphor,though:theabilityto
verygraduallyraisethetemperatureisagoodonetohaveifyou'rea
cook-butnotwhenyou'rerunningacountry.

Beneaththesurface

AweekbeforetheincidentinKalmykia'scapitalElista,IgorBarinov,
theheadofRussia'sFederalNationalitiesAgency(FADN),declaredthat
ethnicandreligioustensionsinthecountrywerelikelytoflareup.

AttheStateDuma'sQuestionTimeon23March,Barinovstatedthat,
"Nationalconflictsaredirectlyconnectedtoeconomicproblemsandthe
ineffectivenessoftheauthorities."

AccordingtoBarinov,certainregionsofRussiaareseeing"radicalised
religiousstructuresjoinwiththenon-systemicoppositiontocriticise
thestate".

"Forthemeantime,"Barinovsaid,"thiscriticismismainlyconnected
tosocialwelfareissues,housing,utilitiesandecology".Bythetime
theparliamentaryelectioncampaignstarts,though,thiscriticismwill
takeona"political,nationalandreligiousovertone",hewarned.

BarinovthuscalledonRussia'sregionsto"bereadytoreact
accordingly"andproposedlegislationforextrajudicialblockingof
websitesthat"donotformallycomeunderthedefinitionof'callsto
massdisorder',butthatfurtherescalateinterethnicandinterfaith
conflicts."

Thus,atoppublicofficialconfirmedthatpotentialmobilisationson
ethnicorreligiousgroundswillbedirectlyconnectedtoeconomic
problemsandthestate'slackofresponse-butchosetoampupRussia's
anti-extremismlegislationinsteadoftacklingtherootsoftheproblem.

Barinov'sactionplanisnotsurprising.Thestateisnotinvolvedin
solvingtheproblemsofhundredsofdifferentethnicgroupsinRussia.
Instead,theKremlinisbusycreatingtheappearanceofstability.In
particular,itiscreatingtherightconditionsforlocalauthoritiesto
deploythe"administrativeresources"atthisyear'selections,andthus
forestallanyunexpected(read:unpleasant)resultsforMoscow.

Barinovdoesn'thidethefactthatoneofhisministry'smaintasksis
to"buildapowerverticalintheregions".Indeed,theFADNbelieves
that"unifyingtheapproachtonationalityissuesinallregions"isan
importantstepinthisdirection.

Acolonisingpoliticalmentality

Itgoeswithoutsayingthat,intheseconditions,agenuinefederal
politicalstructurecannotexist.

AsarecentcourtdecisionfromKhanty-Mansiiskshows,theword
"federalisation"isnowbeingusedsynonymouslywith"stirringup
interfaithantagonism","changingthesystemof
administrative-territorialmanagement","separatism"and"subvertingthe
constitutionalorder".

Thefederalauthorities'colonisingmentalityisthusheavilyregulating
andevencriminalisinganysmallattemptsatself-determination.

InMarch,theMinistryofJusticedeclaredtheBataniFoundation,which
isdedicatedtosupportingindigenouspeoplesinRussia'snorth,Siberia
andtheFarEast,a"foreignagent".

AccordingtoPavelSulyandziga,Batani'schairman,therootofthe
conflictwiththebureaucracycomesdowntoindigenouspeoples'rights
totraditionalhuntinggrounds,fishingareasandterritoryforgrazing
theiranimals.

Suchconflictshaveledtoariseinthenumberofcriminalcasesopened
againstindigenouspeopleintheKhanty-Mansiautonomousregion.Rights
activistsstatethatmostresourcecompaniesprefernottonegotiate
withindigenousrepresentativesanymore,butactviathemostpowerful
stateministries.

NewsalongthisthemeregularlyappearsintheRussianpress.

Forexample-avillageleaderfromPrimorskykraireportedonthe
terriblesituationinRussia'sFarEastattheMoscowEconomicForumin
Marchofthisyear.

Adayafterthereport,newsbrokeofhowKursk'sregionalcouncil
publiclyobstructedOlgaLi,alocalcouncilwomanandnewspapereditor.
Li'ssharplycriticalvideoaddresstoPutin,whichwasdedicatedbyand
largetoregionalpolitics,hasnowresultedinacriminalcasefor
slander.

Nomassprotestsinsight

ButwhatisreallyhappeninginRussia'sregions?Canwetalkaboutany
signsofanti-colonialresistance?

Well,whileDumadeputieshavebeguntotalkaboutthepossibilityofa
"revolutionarysituation"inresponsetothegrowinggapbetween
Russia'srichandpoor,expertssuchasDenisVolkovandNatalia
Zubarevichagreethatwe'reunlikelytoseeanoutbreakofmassprotest
activityanytimesoon.

Withnationaltelevisionnetworksfirmlyundercontrol,theRussian
governmentismanagingtomaintainorder.Theoppositionisyettooffer
analternativeagendaonpoliticalorsocialissuesthatwouldattracta
significantsectionofthepopulation.Andtherisksassociatedwith
protestaresohigh,it'ssimplerjustadapttothefallingliving
standardsthanfightforabetterfuture.

Thatsaid,Zubarevich,theauthorofthe"FourRussias"concept,
believesthatRussia'sregionsare,byandlarge,conservative,anda
bulwarkofsupportforthecurrentregime.

ForZubarevich,theonlyexceptionsarethe"underdeveloped"regions
withamorevolatilepoliticalatmosphere,suchastheNorthCaucasus
andsouthernSiberia,wherepossiblefuturescenariosevenincludestate
violenceunleashedagainstthepopulace.

TheNorthCaucasus,inparticular,iswitnessingagrowingideological
dividebetweenstateandsociety,thoughregionalexpertsvaryintheir
estimationsofthethreatitmaypose.

AccordingtoNikolaiSilaevoftheCenteroftheProblemsofthe
CaucasusandRegionalSecurity,thethreatofnationalismdoesn'treally
workasatoolofpublicpoliticsinRussia.

"Thesingleideologicalbaseformovementsthatthreatenanopen
fragmentationofthestatecouldbecomepoliticalIslam,"writesSilaev.
However,hecontinuestosaythat"politicalIslamhasnorealistic
modelofthestateorclearspatialboundaries."Thiskindofpolitical
communitywillcometoformanetworked"parallelworld",onethatwill
bothfightthestateandtrytofindformsofintegration.

DenisSokolovislessoptimistic.Asheseesit,"theideologyofthe
secularstatehascompletelylosttoIslamintheeastoftheNorth
Caucasusduetoitsproblemswiththecourtsandsocialmobility".

Sokolovbelievesthat2016willsee"aconfrontationbetweenthe
securityservicesandasignificantnumberofMuslimslivinginthe
NorthCaucasusrisetothefore".

Societycompensatesforfailuresofthestate

SokolovisthefirstspecialistontheCaucasustoinvestigatethe
curiousnewsstoriescomingoutofDagestan.Here,jamaats(village
communities)havestartedtopaymedicalprofessionalstovisittheir
villagesattheirownexpense(asarule,thesevisitingdoctorsare
kinsmenwho'vebeenworkinginthebigcities.)Thisturnedouttobe
successful,andnowthispracticehasextendedtoteachingstaff.

Societyhasthusmadeheadwayinanareawherethestatehasfailedin
spiteofitsmulti-billionroubleprojects.Takingresponsibilityfor
theirowninfrastructure,villagershavesetupqualitymedicineand
educationforthemselves,atthesametimeaddressinganoftenemotional
issue-bringingbacktheirkintothemountains.
Ofcourse,we'retalkingaboutamaximumoftenvillageshere.Thisisa
localsuccessevenforDagestan.Butnothingisstoppingother
communitiesfromtryingthisout.

Still,themostimportantthinghereishowthisproblemisbeing
solved.Ifinvitingdoctorsisamatterofsurvival(itwaspromptedby
arisingdeathrate,includingofpatientsduringsimpleoperations),
thenfindinggoodteachersisasignalthateducationisindemand,an
investmentinlong-termdevelopment.

Anineffectivestatecanonlywelcometheseinitiatives-thestory
aboutDagestanwasshownonfederaltelevision.

Butifyoutakeintotheaccountthefactthatsecularideologyis
losingouttoIslaminDagestan,thenwecanassumethatsomething
biggerisbehindthesedevelopments.PerhapsitiswhatHannahArendt
describedastheelite'stemptationtosubstituteviolenceforpower
whenitbeginstoslipfromtheirgrasp.

Arendt'sdiagnosisisalltooreminiscentofthemodernRussian
Federation.Putin'sconceptsofthe"RussianWorld"andpatriotismas
theonlypossiblenationalideaarecloselyintertwinedwithhow
Russia'slawonseparatismandthelawonforeignagentsareapplied-
and,moreoftenthatnot,withanti-extremistandanti-terrorist
legislation.

Thewaytheyareappliedisevidenceofafull-blowncrisisinRussian
domesticpolicies.

Frustrationthatturnstoapathy

Socialmediaisanaptreflectionofthemoodofordinarypeople.Take
thisrecentquestionfromauserinaVKontaktegroupinKalmykia:"Can
youpointtoanypositiveresultsoftheheadofKalmykiaAlexeiOrlov,
who'sruledtherepublicforsixyearsnow?"

"Icanonlyseeone,"thesameuserstates,"Peopleintheregionsdon't
relyontheauthorities.Theysolvetheirproblemsthemselves."

Meanwhile,abloggerfromNorthOssetiaupdateshisstatus:"I'vehad
enough.Thehassle,intrigue,politics,money(anditsabsence),the
idiocyinsideandoutsidethesystem...Peoplehavehadtheirpriorities
wrongfortoolong."

Everyday,mynewsfeedisfullofthesekindsofposts.Apathyandthe
realisationthatyoucan'texpectanythingfromtheauthoritiesarethe
mainmotifsofdiscussionsonRussiasocialmedia.

Atthecoreofthissenseofemptiness,thisideologicalvacuumthat
becameobviousafterthefalloftheSovietUnion,liesnothingbuta
longingforthehomeland.Noonefeelsathomehere:neitherethnic
minorities,whoexperiencediscriminationduetotheirethnicity,nor
RussianSlavs,outragedatthecorruptionofpublicofficialsandthe
courtswillingtoaverttheirgazewhenso-called"peoplefromoutof
town"commitcrimes.

EmilPain,aprominentpoliticalscientistandethnographer,recently
spokeofRussiaas"acountrywithoutasociety,acountrywithouta
nation".

Yetthetransformationofapopulationintoanationisnotataskfor
thestate.Rulingelitesaremoreinterestedinsubjectsthancitizens.
Anationemergeswhenpeoplearereadytofightfortheirownrights.

It'seasierfornationalrepublicstoformacommonagendaonthis
issue.AlthoughthefactthatacongressofKalmykpeople,ratherthan
peoples,wasrecentlyheldsuggeststhattheideologyofethnic,rather
thancivicnationalism,iswhatbroughtpeopletogether.

MultiethnicDagestancould,inprinciple,overcomethesenarrowborders.
Whilelocalnationalismdividessociety,Islamoffersaplatformfor
consolidationinthefuture-toformthepoliticalnationofDagestan.
Butheretheauthoritieshavesuccessfullymaintainedtheartificial
confrontationbetween"traditional"and"non-traditional"Muslimsfora
longtime.

Inanover-centralisedpoliticalsystem,there'slittlepointtalkingof
society'schancetotakebackthestateinasingleregion.The
LeviathanthatisthestatewillreacttowhatArendtdescribedasthe
"slippingawayofpower"withanintensivebuild-upofthepower
ministries,whichremaincapableenoughtopreventanyattemptto
monopolisethecentre.

GiventhatPutin'snewNationalGuardissubordinateonlytotheheadof
state,wecanseehowtheverticalseesthesolutiontothenational
question.

Butistheresomethingthatwillpromptthepopulationtofightfor
theirrightsandthuscreateanationalongalternative,democratic
lines?LiahGreenfield,ascholarofnationalisms,believesthatanew
eliteisneededforthiskindoffuture-anelitethatwillfightnot
foritsownpower,butforthepeople'srespect,giventheconnection
betweenindividualdignityandnationalidentity

Unfortunately,astheKalmykpeople'scongressinElistashows,people
arealwaysreadyto"forceotherstorespectthem"onalocallevel,but
arefarlessreadytodefendtheirdignitywhenitcomestothe
arbitraryruleofpublicofficialsandlawenforcement.

Intoday'sRussia,it'smorerealistictowaitforthestatetoreach
thefinalstageofexhaustionandletpowerslipfromitsgrasp.Of
course,thenwe'llhavetodealwiththesamequestions:youcan'tbuild
anationwithoutcivicactivity.
[returntoContents]<#n0>

#13
TheNewYorkReviewofBooks
April19,2016
Trump'sPutinFantasy
ByTimothySnyder
TimothySnyderistheHousumProfessorofHistoryatYale.

FewforeignleadersseementhusiasticabouttheprospectofaDonald
Trumppresidency.Butthereisonewhoshouldbepleased:Vladimir
Putin.OrsoTrumpseemstothink.MostprominentRepublicanscriticize
PresidentObamaforreactingtoofeeblytoRussiandomesticoppression,
theRussianinvasionofsouthernandsoutheasternUkraine,andRussia's
growingthreattoNATOinEasternEurope.Trump,ontheotherhand,has
praisedPutin's"strong"leadershipathome,calledNATO"obsoleteand
expensive,"andmadeapointofdescribinghisfriendshipwith
Putin-thoughitseemstobeentirelyimaginary.

Fromthebeginningofhiscandidacylastsummer,Trumphasrepeatedly
claimedthathewould"getalongverywellwithVladimirPutin."Last
fall,afterhewasinterviewedonthesamesegmentof60Minutesas
Putin,hewarmlyreferredtotheexperienceofbeing"stablemates"as
"goingwell."Thiswasstrikinglyatoddswithreality,sinceTrumpwas
intheUSandPutininRussiaduringtheinterviews,andthetwomendid
notinfactmeet.

Moreextraordinarystill,Trumphasindicated,inhisselectionlast
monthofCarterPageasaforeignpolicyadviser,thatAmericanpolicy
toEuropewillbeguidedbyRussianinterests.Page,heretoforeknownas
anadvisertoRussia'sstategascompany,hasbeenamongtheprominent
AmericansspreadingRussianpropagandaaboutUkraine'srevolutionin
2014andtheRussianinvasionthatfollowed.Inhiswritingshehas
questionedUkraine'sstatusasanindependentstate,whichisprecisely
thelinethatMoscowtooktojustifyitsinvasion.He
maintains-preposterously-thatUkraineislikeQuebecinsideaRussia
thatislikeCanada.QuebecisaprovinceandUkraineisacountry.He
hasreferredtoRussia'sannexationofUkraine'sCrimeanpeninsula,a
signalviolationofinternationallaw,asthe"so-calledannexation."

ItisnothardtoseewhyTrumpmightchoosePutinashisfantasy
friend.PutinistherealworldversionofthepersonTrumppretendsto
beontelevision.Trump'sfinancialsuccess(suchasitis)hasbeenas
aNewYorkrealestatespeculator,aworldofprivatedeal-makingthat
canseemroughandtough-untilyoucompareittotheRussiaofthe1990s
thatultimatelyproducedthePutinregime.Trumppresentshimselfasthe
makerofafinancialempirewhoiswillingtobreakalltherules,
whereasthatiswhatPutininfactis.ThusfarTrumpcanonlyverbally
abusehisopponentsatrallies,whereasPutin'sopponentsare
assassinated.ThusfarTrumpcanonlyhavehiscampaignmanagerroughup
journalistshedoesn'tlike.InRussiasomeofthebestjournalistsare
infactmurdered.

PresidentPutin,whoisanintelligentandpenetratingjudgeofmen,
especiallymenwithmasculinityissues,hasquicklydrawnthecorrect
conclusion.Inthepasthehasdonewellforhimselfbyrecruitingamong
politicianswhoexhibitgreatervanitythandecency,suchasSilvio
BerlusconiandGerhardSchrder.ThepremiseofRussianforeignpolicy
totheWestisthattheruleoflawisonebigjokethepracticeof
RussianforeignpolicyistofindprominentpeopleintheWestwho
agree.MoscowhasfoundsuchpeoplethroughoutEuropeuntiltheriseof
TrumptheideaofanAmericanwhowouldvolunteertobeaKremlinclient
wouldhaveseemedunlikely.Trumprepresentsanunprecedentedstandard
ofAmericanservility,andshouldthereforebecultivatedasafuture
Russianclient.

TrumpcorrectlysaysthatPutinrespectsstrength.ButofcoursePutin
prefersweakness,whichiswhatTrumpoffers.AsPutinunderstands
perfectlywell,thepresidentoftheUnitedStateshasstandingin
Russia,andenjoysfarsuperiorpowertothepresidentofRussia,only
insofarasheorshemobilizesthemoralandpoliticalresourcesofa
rule-of-lawstate.ItispreciselyTrump'sposeofstrengththatreveals
hiscrucialvulnerability.AsanyonefamiliarwithRussianpolitics
understands,anAmericanpresidentwhoshunsallianceswithfellow
democracies,praisesdictators,andprefers"deals"totheruleoflaw
wouldbeaveryeasymarkinMoscow.ItisunclearhowmuchmoneyTrump
has,butitisnotenoughtomatterinRussia.Ifhekeepsuphispose
asthetoughbillionaire,hewillbeflatteredbytheRussianmedia,
scornedbythosewhomatterinRussia,andtheneasilycrushedbymen
farricherandsmarterthanhe.

PutinhasbeenaccordinglycircumspectinhisreturnofTrump'swooing.
ForhimTrumpisasmallmanwhomightgaingreatpower.Thetrickisto
manipulatethesmallmanandtherebyneutralizethegreatpower.Inhis
annualpressconferencelastDecember,afterhearingsixmonthsof
praisefromTrump,PutinsaidthathewelcomedTrump'sideaofplacing
US-Russianrelationsonamoresolidbasis,andcharacterizedTrumpas
"flamboyant,talented,withoutadoubt."Itishardtomissthe
ambiguityof"flamboyant,"butTrumpchosetomissit.

ThenextdayTrumpseemedpleased.Perhapshavingbeenmisadvisedabout
whatPutinactuallysaid,Trumpsaidthat,"Whenpeoplecallyou
brilliantit'salwaysgood."Aftersuggestingthatkillingjournalists
wasnormal,heconcludedwarmlythat"I'vealwaysfeltfineaboutPutin,
Ithinkthat,youknow,he'sastrongleader,he'sapowerfulleader,
he'srepresentedhiscountry."Notlongafterthat,TrumpdefendedPutin
fromtheofficialBritishinquiryintotheassassinationofAlexander
Litvinenko.Trump'sreasoningwasthatPutin"saidhedidn'tdoit."In
MarchTrumpsaidthatPutinwasastrongerleaderthanthepresidentof
theUnitedStates.ForacrumbofpraisefromPutin,Trumphaspresented
criminalityasnormalandsoldouthisownheadofstate.

LetusimaginethefirstfewweeksofaTrumpadministration.Mostof
hisdomesticagendawillquicklyproveillegal,oratleastvery
complicatedtoimplement.Heisnotamanwhohasdisplayedmuch
patienceformanagement.Itseemsverylikelythathewouldquicklyturn
abroadforthatsurgeofapprovalthatheseemstofindsopleasurable.
Andtherewouldbenoeasierwaytogainsuchafeelingthancurrying
favorwithPutin.Itissomucheasiertoignoretraditionalalliesthan
tocultivatethem,andsomucheasiertoignoreaggressionthanto
maintainorder.ThelouchestylethatTrumpseemslikelytobringto
Americanforeignpolicyisallhewillneedtogarnerpraisefromthe
manheadmires.GivenwhatTrumphasdonethusfar,undernostressand
withlittleencouragement,itisterrifyingtocontemplatewhathewould
doasafrustratedAmericanpresidentlookingforlove.

EvenasPutincarefullycultivatesafutureclient,theRussian
population(aloneinthedevelopedworld)prefersTrumptoClinton,and
Russianelitesrevealtheirexcitementattheprospectofatame
America.Itisunusual,ofcourse,forRussianorotherpublicfigures
totakesidesinAmericanelections.Prudenceusuallyoverrides
preferenceeventhemostwillfulauthoritariansandmediafigures
usuallyhedgetheirbets,knowingthatendorsingalosingcandidatecan
bringeightyearsofbadluckwhileendorsingtheeventualwinnermay
bringverylittle.Inthisparticularelectioncycle,however,Russian
politiciansareinanunusualsituation.HillaryClintonhasbeenthe
targetofsuchcriticismfromRussiaanditscurrentpresidentthatit
isimpossibletocreatetheimpressionofevenhandedness.InDecember
2011,VladimirPutinpersonally(andabsurdly)blamedClinton,thenUS
secretaryofstate,forgivinga"signal"thatpromptedRussiansto
protestfakedparliamentaryelections.

Onceliberatedfromthenormalrulesofthegame,Russianpoliticians
havebeenabletogivevoicetowhatseemslikeheartfeltsympathyfor
Trump.VasilyLikhachev,aCommunistintheRussianparliament,
explicitlyexpressedhispreferenceforTrumpoverClinton.Dmitry
Kiselev,theRussiantalkshowstarbestknownintheWestforreminding
usthatRussiancanturntheUSinto"radioactiveash"andforadvising
thattheheartsofgaysbeburnedaftertheirdeaths,gushesthat"anew
starisrising-Trump."KonstantinRykov,amemberofPutin'sUnited
Russiapartyandaleadingmediamanager,opinesthatTrumpis"thevery
embodimentoftheAmericandream."AlekseiPushkov,thechairmanofthe
Russianparliament'sinternationalaffairscommittee,tweetsadmiringly
aboutTrumponaregularbasis.Mostrevealingly,hewrotethatTrump
"canleadtheWesternlocomotiverightofftherails."

TheexplicitendorsementofTrumpbyAleksandrDugin,theleading
RussianfascistideologueandaveryimportantmediapresenceinRussia,
isparticularlyalarming.ThepremiseofDugin's"Eurasian"movementis
thatRussiaandtheWestareartificiallyseparatedbyenlightenedideas
oftheruleoflawandindividualrights.OnceleadersoftheWest
understandthattheseareartificial(Jewish)implantations,theycan
joinRussiaintheembraceoffascism.Duginaccordinglypraisesthe
Americanpeople,callinguponthemtoshedtheir"oligarchic"elitesand
returntotheirtrue(fascist)values.IreadDugin'suseof
"oligarchic"tomean"Jewish"-asuspicionconfirmedbyDugin'sreaction
toanactualoligarchwhoenjoysthebackingofAmericanneo-Nazis:
"TrumpisthevoiceoftherealrightwinginAmerica,"hewrites."Vote
forTrump!"

TheRussianexpectationisthataTrumpvictorywouldberuinousfor
Americanpower,andthatsuchpowerasremainswillbedeployedto
supportRussianinterests.Trump'sfantasyfriendshipwithPutinisone
morereasontoexpectthataTrumpvictorywouldalsobedisastrousfor
Americanvaluesandinstitutions.Putincanbeexpected,ifthetwomen
actuallymeetaspresidents,toflatterTrump'svanityandurgehim
onwardtowardafullassaultontheConstitution.Russiaisina
downwardspiralofitsownwhatAmericansmustconsidernowisaweak
presidentialcandidatewhowantstofollowPutin'scharmwhereitleads,
whichmostlikelymeansstraighttothebottom.
[returntoContents]<#n0>

#14
DeutscheWelle
April21,2016
HowNigeriangirlsareforcedintoprostitutioninRussia
ByEmmaBurrows

CriminalsappeartobetakingadvantageofRussia'sstudentvisasystem
toforcegirlsintoprostitution.DW'sEmmaBurrowshasbeen
investigatinghowNigerianscomeforuniversityanddisappearintothe
sextrade.

TwoyearsagoawomancametoBlessingOsakwe'shometowninthesouthof
NigeriaandtoldtheyoungwomantherewasworkforherinRussia.She
toldOsakweshewouldhaveajobinasupermarket,andthatitwould
taketheherjustfiveorsixmonthstoearnthemoneytoreimbursethe
costsofthevisaandthejourneytoRussia.Afterpayingbackthe
$40,000,Osakwecouldkeepallthemoneyshemade,thewomansaid.

Osakwesaidherparentsareverypoorandthattheideaofgoingto
Russiatohelpthemandtosavemoneyforhereducationappealedtoher.
Sheagreed.
Onlywhenshearrived,didshediscovereverythingthewomanhadsaid
wasalie.

Therewasnosupermarketjob.Instead,OsakwetoldDW,shewasforcedto
workasaprostitute.

ShewasdrivenaroundMoscowtohavesexwithmen.Onenight,shewas
takentoanapartmentbuildingwhereonemanwasapparentlywaitingfor
her.Whenshegotinside,shediscoveredtherewereeightmen.Shewas
forcedtosleepwithallofthem,shesaid.Whensherefusedtohavesex
withoutacondom,theytookbackthemoneytheyhadpaidandbeatand
molestedher,shesaid.

Thentheythrewherfromthefourthfloorofthebuilding.

Osakwebrokeherhipwhenshehittheground.Shespenttwo-dayson
life-supportinthehospitaluntilhertreatmentwasstoppedbecause,
shesaid,shecouldnotaffordtopay.Shenowcannotwalkproperlyand
isconfinedtoawheelchair.

Traffickedonstudentvisas

Osakwe'sstoryisnotuncommon,saidKennyKehinde,whoworkswith
severalMoscowNGOsfocusedonpreventinghumantrafficking.Around
2,000-3,000Nigeriangirls-manyfrompoor,remotevillages-are
broughttoRussiaeveryyearforsexwork,hesaid.

"Thisisinternationalmodern-dayslavery,wherethegirlsarebrought
herewiththehelpofsomeRussiangovernmentofficials,someNigerian
authoritiesandso-called'madams'[pimps]whoexploitthesegirlsfor
sexinRussia,"saidKehinde.

MostofthegirlsKehindedealtwithhadcometoRussiaonstudent
visas,hesaid.

Suchvisasarenoteasytoobtainasuniversitiesmustprovide
supportingmaterialfortheapplications.

UsmanGafai,headofmissionattheNigerianEmbassyinMoscow,saidhe,
too,wasawareofNigeriansbeingtraffickedforsextoRussia.

"Tenyearsago,itwasnotsuchahugeproblemasthis,"hetoldDW.
"Thoseinvolvedareaninternationalcartel.Onadailybasistheyare
growingandmakingmoneyoutofit."

TheRussiangovernmentneededto"carryoutproperscrutinyofvisa
applicantsbackinNigeria,"Gafaisaid."ThemajoritycometoRussiaon
astudentvisa,andIwanttoseemorescrutinyofthat."

Kehindesaidilliterateteenagerswerebeingtrafficked.

"Howcanyoubringagirlof14-or15-yearoldtostudyina
university,whenshecannotevenreadandwrite?"heasked.
Migrationviolations

DWwasabletoexaminepassportsandmigrationdocumentsbelongingto
sixNigeriangirls,includingBlessingOsakwe,thatshowedtheyhad
arrivedinRussiaonstudentvisas.

TheSmolnyInstituteoftheRussianAcademyofEducationinSaint
PetersburgtoldDWithadissuedvisasupportdocumentsin2014for
OsakwetostudyaRussian-languagecourseinpreparationforentering
university.However,inanemailedstatementtoDW,theuniversity's
rector,GaidarImanov,saidsheneverarrivedattheinstitute,andthe
universityhadnoknowledgeofwhethershehadenteredthecountry.

Similarly,theBalticHumanitarianInstitute,anotherSt.Petersburg
university,confirmedviaemailithadissueddocumentstoawould-be
studentfromNigeriawhohadnevermadecontacttobeginhercoursein
Russia.

Bothuniversitiesrejectedthenotionthattheirstaffmayhavebeen
paidtoprovidedocumentstostudentswhowerenotgenuineortotraffic
girlstoRussiaforsex,callingtheallegation"fiction"and
"absolutelybaseless."

TheRussianMinistryforForeignAffairs,whoseembassiesissuevisas,
toldDWinawrittenstatementthatallstudentsinNigeriaundergoan
interview"withoutfail."Italsosaidborderofficialsdonotallow
entryintothecountrywithoutconfirmationfromtheuniversitywhere
theyareduetostudy.Theministrysaidit"wantedtoemphasize"that
individualsare"personallyresponsibleforadheringtomigration
legislation."

Russia'sFederalMigrationServicetoldDWthatit"regularlychecks"
formigrationviolationsandthatimmigrationlawhadbeenbrokenin
morethan325,000casesinthefirsttwomonthsof2016.Despiteseveral
requests,theagencydidnotexplainhowBlessingOsakwe-andgirls
likeher-couldhaveenteredRussiaonstudentvisasandapparently
disappearedfromauthorities'sightforyearsintothesextrade.

Tacklingtrafficking

Despitelegislationmeanttopreventhumantrafficking,Russiahasnot
shownafullcommitmenttotacklingtheproblem,saidAndrewBograndof
theNGODemocracyInternational.

"Prosecution,althoughexistent,isverylimited,"hesaid."More
alarming,accordingtoRussia'sfewwomen'srightsNGOs,isthealmost
completelackofshelterspaceforwomenwhoarevictimsofsex
traffickingordomesticviolence.

"Corruptionandtraffickingareinextricablylinked-andRussiafares
poorlyinmostcorruptionindexes,"hecontinued."Aslongasthestate
continuestoturnablindeyetotheproblemofcorruption,trafficking
willflourish."

'Stayhome'

BlessingOsakwerecentlyreturnedtoNigeriaandhopestoresumeher
studies.ButhertimeinRussiahaschangedherlifeforever.Itremains
unclearwhethershewillbeabletowalkproperlyagain.

ShehasamessageforotherNigeriangirlswhoareofferedjobsabroad:
"Staybackhome,learntowork.Eventhoughthepayissmall,itismuch
betterthancomingheretosufferorloseyourlife."
[returntoContents]<#n0>

#15
TheGuardian(UK)
April20,2016
Russia's'coldturkey'approachhighlightsglobaldivideoverdrug
treatmentatUN
Russianrepresentativesuggestsmethadoneandheroinarethe'same
narcoticdrug'asoutsideexpertscondemncountry'stakeontreatment:
'They'retheworldleaderindenyingthescience'
ByJessicaGlenzainNewYork
JessicaGlenzaisareporterattheGuardianUS

AsinternationalleadersdebatedglobaldruglawattheUnitedNations,
abizarrepanelonherointreatmentshowedjusthowdividedcountries
areoverhowtotreataddicts.

Thepanel,sponsoredbytheRussianFederation,beganwithan
internationalgroupofscientistsanddiplomatsexplainingthe
importanceofevidence-baseddrugtreatment,beforeaRussiandoctor
veeredintoaddictionsciencedenialism.

"Weprefertotreatpeopleinadrug-freesetting,"DrOxanaGuseva,a
medicalrepresentativeoftheRussianFederation,toldtheGuardian
afterward,"becausemethadoneisthesamenarcoticdrugasheroin."

InRussia,heroinaddictsaregiven"coldturkey"detoxification
treatmentusingthemedicationNaltrexone,whichblocksopioidreceptors
inthebrain.Typically,thismedicationisusedtostopoverdoses.

Then,Gusevasaid,Russianaddictsaregivensocialtherapyand
educationasasubstituteforconventionalopioidreplacementtherapies,
suchasmethadoneclinics,whicharecommonintheUnitedStates.

Whilepartofthedoctor'sstatementistrue-methadoneandheroinare
bothnarcoticpaintreatments-addictiontreatmentthatusesmethadone
inplaceofotheropioidsisdeliveredtothebodyinamuchdifferentway.

First,methadoneclinicsprovideoraldoses,meaningthatthebody
processesthedrugmoreslowlythanintravenousheroin.Thatremovesone
ofthemostaddictivecharacteristicsofheroin-therush.Methadone
alsostaysinthebodyforalongerperiodoftime.Heroinandopioid
painkillerssuchasOxycontinlasthours,butmethadonecanhaveeffects
fordays.

Treatmentthatusesdrugssuchasmethadone,called"replacement
therapies",preventformeraddictsfromgoingthroughpainful
withdrawals.Buttheyalsoaddressadisturbingaspectofaddiction-
howitchangesthebrain'sphysiologylong-termtoaccommodateneural
pathwaysforcravingandcompulsivedrug-seeking.

America'stopaddictionexpert,DrNoraVolkow,directoroftheNational
InstitutesofHealthonDrugAbuse,disputedtheRussiandoctor's
assertions.

"Thedataisshowingafterchronictreatment,someofthesepatients
[addictedtoopiates]areabletoslowlytaperoffthismedication,"
Volkow,referringtotherapiessuchasmethadone.However,shesaid,
"therealityisthatinsomeinstanceswejustcannotachieve[full
sobriety]-andit'snotanydifferentthansomeonewhohasdiabetes.

"Isitthatwearesubstitutingandmaking[diabetics]dependenton
insulin?"sheaskedrhetorically."Perhapswecouldsaythat,butwe
couldalsosayit'sawayforthemtohaveaperfectlynormallife."

ThepanelwaspartofthefirstUNsummitondruglawin18years,known
asUngass,ortheUnitedNationsGeneralAssemblySpecialSession.

Thethree-daysummitwasmeanttoaddressthe"globaldrugproblem"and
includedebateonhowinternationalauthoritiesshouldmovetreaties
forwardtoaddressdrugabuseasapublichealthissue.However,most
debateontheagreementadoptedtookplaceinViennainMarch,withouta
majorityofmemberstates,andthe"outcomedocument",astheagreement
isknown,wasadoptedimmediatelyafterthesessionopened.

Thedocument'simmediateadoptionlaidbarejusthowdividedthe
internationalcommunityisontheissueofdrugabuse.Indonesiacalled
thedeathpenaltyan"importantcomponent"ofthecountry'sdrugcontrol
policy,whileliberalstatessuchasUruguay,ColombiaandNorway
expresseddismaythattheUNfailedtocondemnsuchexecutions.

"Norwayintendstobeaclearvoiceforamoreprogressiveapproach,"
thenation'sdelegatetoldtheGeneralAssemblyonTuesday.

"It'stooironicforRussiatobethesponsoroftheevent,"saidDaniel
Wolfe,directoroftheInternationalHarmReductionProgramfortheOpen
SocietyFoundations."They'retheworldleaderindenyingthescience."

RussiandrugtreatmentmethodswererecentlytestedinCrimea,afterthe
countryannexedtheformerUkrainianregion.

Around800formerheroinaddictstherewerecutofffromreplacement
therapy,roughly100ofwhomhavedied,accordingtoadvocacygroupsand
theUN'sspecialenvoyMichelKazatchkine.

ManyhaveblamedRussia'sbanontreatmentsuchasmethadoneandlackof
cleansyringeprogramsforanuptickinnewHIVinfectionsevenas
infectionratesinotherareasofEuropefall.

"It'sreallystupid,"saidPavloSkala,associatedirectorforthe
AllianceforPublicHealth,aKiev-basedorganization,whoattendedthe
eventonWednesday."It'snotscientific,as[with]everythingrelated
totreatmentinRussia."
[returntoContents]<#n0>

#16
RFE/RL
April17,2016
BarredFromHundredsOfOccupationsInRussia,AFewWomenFightBack
byTomBalmforth

MOSCOW--SvetlanaMedvedevacannotrisetothetopofherchosen
professionforaverysimplereason--sheisawoman.

Theambitionofthe30-year-oldmotheroftwoistoearnamuchbetter
wageasthecaptainofaboatontheVolgaRiver,whichrunsthroughher
hometownofSamara.Andwiththedegreesheearnedin2005fromSamara
RiverCollege,sheshouldbewellonherway--oralreadythere.

ButwiththesysteminplaceontheVolga,theoccupationofcaptain
requireshertohavepriorexperienceasashipmechanic.Andthatjob
isoneofhundredsthatareopentomenonlyinRussia,accordingtothe
law.

ARussiangovernmentresolutionpassedin2000prohibitswomenfrom38
industriesandover450jobsitdeemstobe"dangerous"or"arduous."
AdoptedduringPresidentVladimirPutin'sfirstyearinoffice,itwas
thelatestincarnationofSoviet-eraregulationsthatsoughttokeep
womeninwhattheCommunistPartyoncecalledtheir"traditional"role
ofbearingchildrenforthegreatergoodofsociety.

Tothisday,thebancoversaswatheofoccupationsincludingminer,
carpenter,firefighter,traindriver,blacksmith,diver,anddriverof
buseswithmorethan14seats.

ThatmakesRussia"thecountrywiththemostjob-relatedbarriers,"
accordingtoaSeptember2015WorldBankreportongenderequality.

OnMarch15,theUnitedNationscalledonRussiatoamendits
legislationandshortenthelistofbannedoccupations.Italsoformally
labeledMedvedevaavictimof"gender-baseddiscrimination"--a
hard-wontriumphinalegalbattleshebeganin2012,seekingtobypass
theban.

Thatyear,Medvedevawasactuallyhiredforamechanic'sjob,withsome
responsibilitiesattheboat'shelm,byaprivatecompanyinSamara.But
whenherworkwasduetostart,shewasturnedawaybecauseofthe
legislation.

"Everythingwassigned,andIwasmeanttostartworkonMonday,"she
says."Icame,hadalookattheengineandhowitworks.Iwasmeantto
startintwodays--andthentherewasthisresolutionbanningmefrom
work."

Medvedevabegancampaigningfordispensationtobypasstheban,firing
offletterstotheKremlin,LaborMinistry,andHealthMinistry.They
allreferredherbacktotheLaborCode,whichinturncitesjobslisted
asdangerousinthegovernmentresolution.

Shewenttocourttoseekanordertoforcethecompanytoensuresafe
workingconditionsinthejob,butherappealwasrejected.Shesaysthe
jobisconsidereddangerousbecauseoftheloudnoiseoftheengine,
whichcanbecanceledoutbywearingearplugs.

"Idon'tthinkthereshouldbeprofessionsthatarebannedforwomen,"
Medvedevasays."Inanycase,womenaren'tgoingenmassetogototake
upheavywork,andinthoseprofessionswhereitreallyisheavy,the
jobsshouldsimplybeimproved.Theyshouldbeimproved,notbanned."

Medvedevasaysshehadpracticallygivenupwhenshecameacrossthe
RussianhumanrightsorganizationMemorial,whichofferedtohelppress
hercaseinternationally.ShewenttotheUnitedNations,whose
CommitteefortheEliminationofDiscriminationAgainstWomenpronounced
heravictimofdiscriminationandcalledonRussiatoamenditsLabor
Codeandreducethenumberofjobsthatareclosedtowomenunderthe
governmentresolution.

"Noevidencehasbeenprovidedtothecommitteethattheinclusionof
thepositionofhelmperson-motoristinthelistofprohibitedjobsis
basedonanyscientificevidencethatitmaybeharmfultowomen's
reproductivehealth,"theUNcommittee'sexpertssaidintheMarch15
statement.
SovietLaw

Thelegislationharksbacktothecommunistera,andhasbeenmodified
slightlywiththepassageoftime.Itslatestincarnationwaspassedas
agovernmentresolutionin2000thatliststhebannedprofessions.The
LaborCodeadditionallysaysthatwomenareprohibitedfromworking
undergroundexceptiftheyaredoingnonphysicaltaskssuchascleaning.
Theyarealsonotallowedtodojobsinvolvingliftingormovingheavy
items.

"ThissystemisveryoldandgoesbacktoSoviettimes,"saysYelena
Gerasimova,directoroftheMoscow-basedCenterforSocialandLabor
Rights."Therestrictionshavechangedovertheyears--some
occupationshavebeenremoved,othersincluded.Ithasn'talwaysbeenin
thisform.Atvarioustimesitwasaddedto,butthegeneralapproach
wasalwaysthesame."

Ontheonehand,Sovietideologyexplicitlyespousedequalitybetween
menandwomen--andonthefaceofitdidsodemonstratively.Soviet
cosmonautValentinaTereshkovabecamethefirstwomaninspacein1963,
20yearsbeforeSallyRidebecamethefirstAmericanwomantomakethetrip.

Ontheground,itwasadifferentstory.DuringtheSovietUnion's
breakneckindustrializationandthereconstructionafterthedevastation
ofWorldWarII,whichleftthecountrywithadeficitofmen,women
wereactivelypushedintothelaborforce--butwerelargelykeptout
ofhigh-skilledjobs.

TheSovietLaborCodeof1922explicitlybannedwomenfrom"dangerous"
jobs.In1981,theyeartherulingCommunistPartycalledforthe
"reinforcementofthetraditionalmaternalrole,"thenumberofjobs
shuttowomenhit460.

'LadyMetro'
Perhapsthemostwell-knownbanwastheprohibitionintroducedinthe
1980sonwomendrivingtrains,includinginthemetro,orsubway.Until
then,femaledrivershadbeencommonplace-alegacyofthedearthof
menfollowingWorldWarII.Womenwerealsopreventedfromworkingas
trainassistantsinthefrontcar.

Womenweregraduallyphasedoutofthejob--withoneexception.Until
herreportedretirement,NatalyaKorniyenkowasknownastheonlyfemale
metrodriverinMoscow,andthetabloidMoskovskyKomsomoletsdubbedher
"LadyMetro"in2007.

TheMoscowMetropressservicesaidin2009thatKorniyenkowasableto
continueworkingbecausethebanonhiringwomenasmetrodriversdid
notsaywhattodowiththosealreadyworking,andshepredatedtheban.

Othershavesincetriedtogainemploymentinthedriver'sboothof
subwaytrains--buttonoavail.In2009,AnnaKlevets,thena
22-year-oldlawstudent,pressedadiscriminationsuitafterbeing
turneddownforajobasanassistantmetrooperatorinSt.Petersburg
onthegroundsofhergender.Shearguedthatitwasaviolationof
Russia'sconstitutionalguaranteeofequalrightsformenandwomen.The
SupremeCourtrejectedherappealinMay2009.

Lastyear,anonlinepetitionwasairedbyaresidentoftheSiberian
cityofNovokuznetskcallingfortherepealoftheblanketban,saying
itwasoutdatedprimarilyforeconomicreasons.

Theauthorofthepetitionarguedthattherestrictionsweretolerable
intheSovietUnionbecausewomenwereabletofindotherdecentworkin
asysteminwhicheverycitizenwasvirtuallyguaranteedajob,butthat
withunemploymentontheriseandrealincomesfalling,itisunfairin
today'sRussia.

"Nowthesituationhaschanged,"saysthepetition,whichhasgarnered
just650signatures."Thejobsthatwomenarebarredfromcouldbethe
bestoronlywayforthemtoearnmoneytolive."http://tinyurl.com/jctm39v

GerasimovasaysthatRussiahassixmonthstorespondtotheUN'scall
tochangethelegislation.Shesaidthat"severalyearsago"therehad
beensignsthattheLaborMinistrywasmakingmovestorepealthe
legislation,butthattherehasbeennoovertindicationofthatrecently.

TherestrictionsseemtofitinwiththepushesbyPutinandtheRussian
OrthodoxChurchtotoutwhattheycalltraditionalRussianvalues.

Forherpart,Medvedevaseesnogroundswellofsupportforachange.

Thelegislation"isaprobleminmycase,"shesays."Ifthiswasa
particularlybigproblem,someonewouldhaveraiseditbeforemeasthe
resolutionhasbeeninforcefor16yearssince2000.I'mtheonewitha
concreteproblemothersapparentlydon'thaveit."
[returntoContents]<#n0>

#17
Time.com
April20,2016
WhyaWininaDutchCourtIsMakingVladimirPutinSoHappy
AcourtintheHaguehasquasheda$50billionjudgmentagainstthe
Russianstate.ButPresidentPutin'senemiesfromtheYukosaffair
aren'tgivingupanytimesoon
BySimonShuster

Inthesummerof2014,aninternationalcourtofarbitrationbasedin
theDutchcityoftheHagueissuedanastoundingruling.Thecourt
orderedthegovernmentofRussiatopay$50billionindamagestoformer
shareholdersoftheYukosoilcompany,whichtheRussianstatehad
forcedintobankruptcy,choppedintopiecesandsoldofftostate-run
firmsinthemid-2000s.Thatlegalassaulthadamountedto
expropriation,accordingtothecourt'sdecisionatthetime,byfarthe
biggestthecourtofarbitrationhadeverhandeddown,andamajorblow
toMoscow.

RussiaappealedtotheDistrictCourtintheHague-butitwasclearly
worriedabouttheoutcome.Topleaditscase,theKremlinhiredsomeof
thebestlawyersintheworld.ItspolicehadraidedhomesinMoscow
lookingforusefulevidence.Thestakeswerehigh.Ifthecourthad
ruledagainsttheKremlin,bailiffswouldbeabletocontinueseizing
Russianstateproperty,fromrealestateandbankaccountstoworksof
art,aspartofaglobalhunttocollectthedamages.

"Ourargumentsarewatertight,"AndreiKondakov,thecoordinatorofthe
legalteamrepresentingRussia,toldTIMEacoupleofdaysbeforethe
ruling."Butwecouldlose."

Instead,thecourtonWednesdayhandedRussiaaremarkablewin.It
overturnedtheoriginalrulingonatechnicality,thusgrantingRussia's
appeal."Wedon'thavetopayasinglepennytothisbunchofguys,"
Kondakovtoldreportersaftertheruling.Well,atleastnotuntilthe
Yukosshareholdersfileanothersetofappeals,asthey'vealready
promisedtodo.

"Thecourthasmisappliedthelaw,"TimOsborne,theheadoftheirlegal
team,saidatapressconferenceonWednesday.Butevenasthefight
overtheYukosfortunecontinuesinthecourts,Russiacanclaima
powerfulvictory,onethatcouldhelpthestatewinsimilarchallenges
toitswealth-anditsreputation-aroundtheworld.

BeforeWednesday'sruling,theKremlinhadbeenpreparingforamuch
moredifficultfight.Inresponsetothe$50billionjudgmentin2014,
itrefusedtopaythedamagestoYukosshareholders,whothenretaliated
bytryingtoseizeRussianstateassetsaroundtheworld.Lastsummer,
courtsinFranceandBelgiumagreedtofreezedozensofRussianbank
accountsandpropertiesasameansofcollectingthedebt.Moscowwas
furious.

Anythingbelongingtothestate,withtheexceptionofembassiesand
otherdiplomaticproperty,waspotentiallysubjecttoseizureonforeign
soil.SoRussiahadtothinktwiceaboutsendingplanestoforeignair
shows,forinstance,orlendingarttoforeignmuseums.Russiafought
back-aftertheassetfreezesinFranceandBelgium,Moscowthreatened
toretaliateagainstanycountrythattriedtoenforcethedebttoYukos
shareholders.InNovember,Putinevensignedanewlawthatwouldallow
hisgovernmenttocarryouttit-for-tatconfiscationsofforeignassets
onRussiansoil.

ButforPutin,thissagaisaboutmuchmorethanmoney.TheYukosaffair
isapersonalgrudge,onethatbegansoonafterhecametopowerin
2000.InoneofhisfirstactsasPresident,hesetouttocheckthe
powerofthebillionaireclassofplutocratsthathadeffectivelybought
upcontrolofthecountry'seconomyduringtheprivatizationwaveinthe
1990s.Putin'sarrivalmeanttherulesofbusinesswouldchange.During
aseriesofmeetings,hetoldtheoligarchsthattheycouldkeeptheoil
fields,minesandfactoriestheyhadpurchasedfromthestateonthe
cheapbeforehecametopower.ButtheyhadtorecognizePutin's
authorityasstandingwellabovetheirown.

"Hewasablackbox,nooneknewwhatwasinside,"recallsSergei
Pugachev,theoligarchwhohelpedarrangethefirstmeetingwithPutin.
Thebettertogethismessageacross,Putindecidedtoholdthatmeeting
attheformerdachaoftheSovietdictatorJosefStalin.Mostofthem
gotthemessage,Pugachev,whonowlivesinexileinLondon,toldTIME
in2014."'HetookustoStalin'sdacha,'"heremembersoneoftheother
guestssayingthatday."'It'senoughthatheletusleave.'"

Atthetime,thewealthiestamongtheoligarchswasMikhail
Khodorkovsky,whowasworthabout$15billion.Withthehelpofhis
connectionsintheyouthleagueoftheSovietCommunistParty,hehad
startedinbusinessearly,sellingpersonalcomputersbeforemostSoviet
citizenshadeverheardofthem.Aspost-SovietRussiatransitionedto
capitalismintheearly1990s,heamassedenoughmoneytostartbuying
upthechoicestoilfieldsthatthenearlybankruptRussianstatecould
offer.TheseformedthebasisoftheYukosoilempire-andsecuredhis
positionasthemostpowerfultycooninthecountrybythetimePutin
arrivedintheKremlin.

WhenTIMEinterviewedhimin2014,Khodorkovskyalsorecalledthatfirst
meetingwithPutin,thoughnotquitethesamewaythatPugachevdoes.
Foronething,Khodorkovskywasnotintimidated."Maybenow[Putin]
talksinthelanguageofultimatums.Butatthetimeitwasallvery
polite,"hetoldme."Still,weunderstoodthatweweredealingwiththe
headofthecountry,whohasalotmoreauthority[inRussia]thanthe
AmericanPresident.Andwe,thebigbusinessmen,mayhavesomepowers.
Butcomparedtothoseoftheheadofstate,theyarepracticallyzero."

Still,theheadofYukosdidnotbehaveasmodestly-orascautiously-
astheothers.IntheyearsthatfollowedPutin'sascenttopower,
Khodorkovskybegannegotiatingdealswithforeigncompanies,including
U.S.oilconcerns,thatwouldhavethreatenedthestate'seffective
monopolyontheexportofoil-byfarthemostvaluableofRussia's
naturalresources.Healsobeganfundingoppositionpartiesand
discussinganeventualrunforthepresidency.Putindidnottakekindly
tosuchambitions.

Theconflictbetweenthemcametoaheadin2003,whenRussiancommandos
arrestedKhodorkovskyonthetarmacofaSiberianairportandtookhim
tojailtofacechargesoffraud,whichhedenied.Hisoilcompanywas
hitwithsomanytaxclaimsthatitwasforcedtoenterbankruptcy.Over
thenextfewyears,theauthoritiessoldoffYukos'mostvaluableassets
andoilfieldstostate-controlledfirmsrunbyPutin'scloseassociates.

ThequestionnowatthecenterofthelawsuitsintheHagueiswhether
thatassaultonYukoswaslegal.Inawardingdamagesof$50billiontwo
yearsago,thetribunalruledthattheactionsoftheRussianstatewere
"equivalenttoexpropriation"intheYukoscase.Kondakov,thelawyer
representingtheRussianstate,deniesthatKhodorkovskyandhisfirm
were"singledoutandtargeted"bytheauthorities.

Inthe1990s,manyoftheoligarchsbecamevastlyrichthroughthe
purchaseofstateassets,Kondakovargues."Everyonegotawaywiththose
auctions,butthenyouweregivenachance,"hesaysbyphonefrom
Moscow,referringtotheopportunityPutingavetheoligarchstostart
payingtheirtaxesandfallingintoline."Soit'snotaboutothers
gettingaway.It'sabouthowyoubehaveafteryou'regivena
once-in-a-lifetime,uniquechancetoacquireaverypriceyassetfora
verynegligibleamountofmoney."

ButwhatevermoneyKhodorkovskymayhavesavedinthepurchaseofhis
oilwells,hepaidforitdearlyinprison.Atonepointin2006,his
cellmateinaSiberianpenalcolonytriedtostabhimintheeyewhile
hewassleeping.Hewasoftenheldinsolitaryconfinementandwas
forcedtoworksewinguniformsforthepolice.Onlyafter10yearsof
incarceration,whenKhodorkovsky'smotherwasgravelyill,Putinagreed
togranthimapardon-aslongashewentintoexile.

ItdidnottakelongforthePresidenttoregretthatunusualactof
clemency.WithinayearofhisreleaseinDecember2013,Khodorkovsky
beganopenlycallingforarevolutionagainstPutin'srule.Usingthe
moneyhehadstashedinforeignbanksbeforehisarrest,healsobegan
tosupporttheoppositionmovementinRussiaandbankrollcandidatesin
Russianelections.Withtheir$50billionjudgmentfromtheHague,his
formerpartnersintheoilbusinessbeganchasingRussianassetsaround
theworld."Wearenothidingfromanyone,"Kondakovinsistedatthe
time."Wearenotrunningfromanyregularoperationofthestate."

ButthestatedidstepupitshuntforevidenceagainstKhodorkovskyin
Russia.AfewdaysbeforeChristmas,policeraidedtheofficesofhis
activistgroupinMoscow,aswellasthehomesofhisspokeswoman,
severalofhisemployeesandtheirrelatives.Investigatorssaidthe
raidswerelinkedtoanothercaseof"illegalprivatization"ofassets
inthe1990s,thistimeinvolvingafertilizerandminingcompany.

Insomecases,though,suchevidencecanbeusefulindefendingRussia
againsttheYukosshareholders,saysKondakov."Thosethingsaredonein
parallel,"hesayswhenaskedabouttheapartmentsraidedinDecember.
Hewasnotawareofanyusefulmaterialgatheredbypoliceinthose
particularsearches.Butinfightingtheenforcementofthejudgmentin
theHague,Russiansecurityserviceshaveopenedtheirtrovesof
documentsonYukostothegovernment'slawyers-includingthe
high-pricedAmericanfirmWhite&Case."Wearethankfultoboththe
officeoftheprocuratorgeneralandtheRussianInvestigativeCommittee
foropeningtheirfiles,providingaccessforourlawyers,"Kondakov
tellsTIME.

Thosefilesmayyetcomeinhandy.AfterWednesday'srulinginthe
Hague,theYukosshareholderspledgedtoappealallthewayuptothe
DutchSupremeCourt,whichmayyetdecidetoupholdthe$50billionin
damages.TheirracetograbRussianstateassetswouldthenbebackon.

Khodorkovskywillbewatchingfromthesidelines.Soonafterhisarrest
in2003,hetransferredhisstakeintheYukosoilempiretohis
partners.Sohedoesn'thavemuchtogain,atleastfinancially,from
thelitigationintheHague."Evenwithoutme,noonewillgivethemany
peaceonthisissue,"hetoldmewithasmilesoonafterhisrelease.
Forhispart,heplanstocontinuehiscrusadeagainstPutinforaslong
asittakestounseathim."Myfriendswillcontinuetheirresistance,"
hewroteonTwitterafterWednesday'sruling,referringtotheYukos
shareholders."I'llkeepgoingforregimechangebyothermeans."
[returntoContents]<#n0>

#18
www.foreignaffairs.com
April19,2016
IncorruptiblePutin
WhythePanamaAllegationsWon'tStick
ByGregoryFeifer
GREGORYFEIFERistheauthorofRussians:ThePeopleBehindthePower.
[Completetextherebehind
paywall:http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/russian-federation/2016-04-19/incorruptible-putin

ThebiggestsurpriseabouttheRussianreactiontothePanamaPapers
leakscameintheformofaposterthatdepictedRussianPresident
VladimirPutinasthedrug-addledprotagonistplayedbyJohnnyDeppin
themovieversionofHunterS.Thompson'sFearandLoathinginLas
Vegas-completewithPanamahat,aviatorsunglasses,andcigarette
holder.AdorningacentralMoscowbusstopforseveralhoursbeforethe
authoritieshaditremoved,theposterread,"WhatPanama?"

Therarepublicdisplayofdefiancemainlyservedtodrawattentionto
theapathyofthegeneralpublic-itcomesasnosurpriseinacountry
wherestatepropagandafuelswidespreadsuspicionthatmostforeign
developmentsareplotsagainstMotherRussia.EvenasWesternfiction,
however,revelationsfromtheleakeddocumentswouldstraincredulity
aboveall,informationrevealedthatthehandfulofindividualsfrom
Putin'sinnercirclewhomovedatleast$2billionthroughCaribbean
offshorecompaniesincludedSergeiRoldugin,anobscurecellistfromSt.
PetersburgwhoisthegodfatherofoneofPutin'sdaughters.

Thepresident'sresponsewasmoreincrediblestill.Dismissingthe
accusationsagainstRolduginaspartofaU.S.plottoundermineRussian
unitybyimpugningahumblemusician,hesaidhisoldfriendhadonly
depositedcashthathehadhonestlyearnedonthesideandintendedto
usetobuyinstrumentstodonatetocharity....
[returntoContents]<#n0>

#19
KennanInstitute
April19,2016
HardWorkvs.Magic
ByMaximTrudolyubov
SeniorFellow,KennanInstitute.Editor-at-Large,VedomostiDaily

Russianofficialsstillreferto"conditionsfordoingbusiness"or
"qualityofgovernance"whendiscussingthecountry'seconomic
performance.Butthelackofgravitasintheseconversationsis
palpable.Russia'sofficialeconomicpolicymakerscommandanexcellent
understandingofthecountry'seconomicproblems,buttheylackthe
powertoadministertreatmentbasedontheirowndiagnosis.

Therealpolicymakers,thoseintheKremlin,consistentlyhavetheupper
handandareabletoturntheirthinkingintopolicies.Theproblemwith
thisisnotthefactthatthepresidentandhisinnercirclearemore
powerfulthantheministersoffinanceoreconomics.Technocrats
everywherearelessimperiousthanpoliticalheavyweights.Theproblem
isthattheeconomistsandtheKremlinplayersliveintwodifferentworlds.

Theheavyweights'andtechnocrats'understandingsofthereasonsbehind
eventsaresoprofoundlydifferentthatthepoliciesproposedbyeach
areincompatible.Thesedifferencesofopiniongobeyondtheusual
policydisagreementsandstrikeattheheartofthegoalsofpolicymaking.

Technocratsseereasonsfordomesticfailuresoriginatingindomestic
issuesandseektofindinternalcuresfortheeconomy'sailments.They
liveintheworldofglobaleconomicprocessesandwouldliketoseea
competitiveanddevelopedRussia.Heavyweightsstresstheimportanceof
externalfactorsandseemtobelievethatoncethedesignsofforeign
evildoersarerevealedandrebuffed,theeconomywillfixitself.They
operateunderawarmentalityandwouldliketostayinpoweratallcosts.

Whereaseconomictechnocratsspeakoftheinvestmentclimateandtaxes,
theKremlinpolicymakersspeakofinternationaldealsthatwouldpush
oilpricesbacktotheirformerhighs.Whereastechnocratsaretryingto
promotebusiness-friendlypoliciesandinternationalintegration,
heavyweightsseeeveryeconomicproblemasamanifestationoftheUnited
States'"hybridwar"againstRussiaandseekretaliation.

RussianFinanceMinisterAntonSiluanoveffectivelyconfirmedthiswhen
hespokeinfrontofallthetopbrassofRussia'seconomicpolicymaking
apparatusatarecentconference.Askedtonamethemostimportant
growthfactors,hesaiditwasoil,althoughitshouldnothavebeen.
"ThetopgrowthfactorinRussiaisoil:$20abarreladd0.8to1
percentagepointsofeconomicgrowth.Butdoweneedthiskindof
volatile,jerkygrowth?"Siluanovaskedhimself."Theconsequencesof
growthlikethisarethestrengtheningoftherubleandthelossof
competitiveness.Weneedaninvestment-basedgrowth...afewsectorsof
theeconomyshowedsomeprofitincreaseslastyearduetoexchangerate
differences.Butitallwentintodividends,notintocapitalinvestment
because,withthesehighlevelsofdeficit,economicagentswerenot
sureofpolicydirection.Theywerenotsureifthegovernmentwould
keepthecurrenttaxregimeinplaceorhiketaxes."

Macroeconomicpoliciesalonewon'tbeabletoreturntheeconomyto
growthbecauseofthelackofacompetitiveinvestmentclimateand
strongstateinvolvementinbusinessactivities,PyotrAven,theheadof
AlfaBank,Russia'slargestindependentlender,saidinarecentinterview.

Whilethesekindsofpoliciesrequireyearsofpoliticalhardwork,the
Kremlin'sfavoritepoliciescanbedecidedandputintoeffectquickly
andeasily."Russiaandsomeothercountrieshavebeenlivingina
situationoftheso-calledhybridwarunleashedbytheUnitedStates...
Internationallawisfrequentlyusedasaninstrumentofhybridwarfare
againstRussia,"AlexanderBastrykin,headoftheRussianInvestigative
Committee,wroteinapiecepublishedonMonday.Bastrykinwentonto
blameallRussia'seconomictrouble,includingthefallingrubleand
dwindlingincomes,onAmericanmischief.Eventhegrowingfiscalburden
thataffectsRussiandomesticcompanies,Bastrykinwrites,istheresult
ofAmericanpressure.Yes,sanctionsareinplace,butreducing
everythingtoaneffectofexternalpressureistantamounttomagical
thinking.

IfeverythingthatgoeswrongisaresultofAmerica's"hybrid"attack,
aretaliatoryattackisinorder.Isitgoingtobeanotherinvasionor
somedomesticcrackdown?Theanswerissupposedtoremainunknownuntil
everyonelearnsitfromthemorningnews.That'showagovernmentacts
whenitisatwar.Buttheveryunpredictabilityofthishighlyreactive
"wartime"policymakingisdeadlytomostkindsofbusiness.Sothe
economicpolicymakersarenottheproblem."Theproblemisthat
investors-bothforeignandRussian-don'treallytrustthemaninthe
bigchairnottodrivetheeconomydeliberatelyoffacliffjusttostay
inpower,"summarizesSamuelGreene,directorofRussiaInstituteat
King'sCollege,London.

Russiacanfollowtwopathstotryandclimboutoftheeconomicpitit
currentlyfindsitselfin.Itcanchampionprivateentrepreneurshipand
privateinvestmentandworktomakeitsbusinessclimatemore
competitive.Oritcantrustinitspoliticalwitchcraftandhopethat
oilpriceswillsomehowgrowbacktobeneficiallevels.Thislatterpath
hasfailedspectacularly.Russianofficialswereputtingalotofhope
intoapossibledealtofreezeoiloutput.ButasummitinDohaamong
theworld'slargestoilproducingcountriesendedwithoutanagreement
onSundayafterSaudiArabiainsistedthatIran,afierceregional
rival,hadtobepartofanyagreement.

RussiacouldfollowtheadviceofthelikesofBastrykinandintroduce
furtherrestrictivelegislation,bancertaintypesofcontent,and
censordomesticInternet.AllthesethingswillsomehowmakeRussia
betteroff,Bastrykinbelieves.GivenhisbackgroundasonetimeYoung
CommunistLeagueSecretaryofthecityofLeningrad,thiskindof
ideologicalapproachisunderstandable.Itisjustpuzzlingthatthese
attitudesandbeliefsstillconsistentlybeatoutprofessionaleconomic
policymakinginRussia.
[returntoContents]<#n0>

#20
www.foreigpolicy.com
April21,2016
SitRep:Exclusive:PentagonSaysRussiaCanFightinUkraineandSyria
AnotherTwoYears
BYPAULMCLEARYandADAMRAWNSLEY

Stillcold.IthasbeentwoyearssinceNATOandRussiasatatthesame
tabletotalksecurityissues,andthetimeoffhasn'tdonemuchforthe
relationship.AmeetinginBrusselsWednesdaydesignedtobreaktheice
onissueslikeUkraine,Syria,andtensionsintheBalticsdidn'tget
veryfarbeforeallsidesagreedtheydon'tseeeye-to-eyeonmuch.

"Duringthemeetingitwasreconfirmedwedisagree,bothwhenitcomes
tothefacts,thenarrativesandtheresponsibilitiesforthecrisisin
andaroundUkraine,"NATOSecretary-GeneralJensStoltenbergsaidafter
thesitdown.

TheNATO-RussiaCouncilwasestablishedin2002tokeepupamonthly
dialoguebetweenMoscowandtheEuropeandefenseorganization,butties
werebrokenoffinJune2014aftertheinvasionofUkraine.

ThewarinUkraine'seastrageson,however,withoneseniorDefense
officialtellingSitRepthatthereare7,000Russiantroopsstillinside
Ukraine,advisingpro-Moscowrebelsandengaginginthefightingthemselves.

RussianPresidentVladimirPutin'sinterventionintheSyrianconflict
topropuptheregimeofBasharal-Assadhasn'tmadeadentinthe
abilityofRussiatosendmoreequipmenttoUkraine,either.Overthe
pastyear,Russiahasshippednewrocketlaunchers,artillery,drones,
andadvancedelectronicwarfareequipmenttotheeasternDonbassregion.

"Ithinktheycansustainthisforaconsiderableperiodoftime,"the
officialsaid."Ourviewisthattheycouldsustainthiseasilyfor24
months"evenifoilpricesremainlowandtheRussianeconomycontinues
tostagnate.DespiteanannouncementlastmonththattheRussian
militarywouldbegintowithdrawforcesfromSyria,insteadMoscowsent
moreadvancedhelicopters,andthelevelofdailyairstrikeshas
remainedsteady.

TheNATOtalks,someanalystssay,likelywon'tamounttomuch.But
they'reastart.OlgaOliker,directoroftheRussiaandEurasiaProgram
attheCenterforStrategicandInternationalStudiessaysthat"right
now,theRussiansareatthetableintheinterestofsimplybeingat
thetable.IdothinkapartoftheRussianpurposeinmeetingwithNATO
is'beawareofus,payattentiontous,andyoucan'tdiscountus,'"
andnotmuchmore.
[returntoContents]<#n0>

#21
NewYorkTimes
April21,2016
RussiaBolstersItsSubmarineFleet,andTensionsWithU.S.Rise
ByERICSCHMITT

NAPLES,Italy-Russianattacksubmarines,themostintwodecades,are
prowlingthecoastlinesofScandinaviaandScotland,theMediterranean
SeaandtheNorthAtlanticinwhatWesternmilitaryofficialssayisa
significantlyincreasedpresenceaimedatcontestingAmericanandNATO
underseadominance.

Adm.MarkFerguson,theUnitedStatesNavy'stopcommanderinEurope,
saidlastfallthattheintensityofRussiansubmarinepatrolshadrisen
byalmost50percentoverthepastyear,citingpublicremarksbythe
RussianNavychief,Adm.ViktorChirkov.Analystssaythattempohasnot
changedsincethen.

Thepatrolsarethemostvisiblesignofarenewedinterestinsubmarine
warfarebyPresidentVladimirV.Putin,whosegovernmenthasspent
billionsofdollarsfornewclassesofdieselandnuclear-poweredattack
submarinesthatarequieter,betterarmedandoperatedbymore
proficientcrewsthaninthepast.

Thetensionsarepartofanexpandingrivalryandmilitarybuildup,with
echoesoftheColdWar,betweentheUnitedStatesandRussia.Moscowis
projectingforcenotonlyintheNorthAtlanticbutalsoinSyriaand
Ukraineandbuildingupitsnucleararsenalandcyberwarfarecapacities
inwhatAmericanmilitaryofficialssayisanattempttoproveits
relevanceafteryearsofeconomicdeclineandretrenchment.

IndependentAmericanmilitaryanalystsseetheincreasedRussian
submarinepatrolsasalegitimatechallengetotheUnitedStatesand
NATO.Evenshortoftensions,thereisthepossibilityofaccidentsand
miscalculations.Butwhateverthethreat,thePentagonisalsousingthe
stepped-upRussianpatrolsasanotherargumentforbiggerbudgetsfor
submarinesandanti-submarinewarfare.

Americannavalofficialssaythatintheshortterm,thegrowingnumber
ofRussiansubmarines,withtheirabilitytoshadowWesternvesselsand
Europeancoastlines,willrequiremoreships,planesandsubstomonitor
them.Inthelongterm,theDefenseDepartmenthasproposed$8.1billion
overthenextfiveyearsfor"underseacapabilities,"includingninenew
Virginia-classattacksubmarinesthatcancarryupto40Tomahawkcruise
missiles,morethantriplethecapacitynow.

"We'rebacktothegreatpowerscompetition,"Adm.JohnM.Richardson,
thechiefofnavaloperations,saidinaninterview.

Lastweek,unarmedRussianwarplanesrepeatedlybuzzedaNavydestroyer
intheBalticSeaandatonepointcamewithin30feetofthewarship,
Americanofficialssaid.LastyearsomeofRussia'snewdiesel
submarineslaunchedfourcruisemissilesattargetsinSyria.

Mr.Putin'smilitarymodernizationprogramalsoincludesnew
intercontinentalballisticmissilesaswellasaircraft,tanksandair
defensesystems.

Tobesure,thereishardlyparitybetweentheRussianandAmerican
submarinefleets.Russiahasabout45attacksubmarines-abouttwo
dozenarenuclear-poweredand20arediesel-whicharedesignedtosink
othersubmarinesorships,collectintelligenceandconductpatrols.But
Westernnavalanalystssaythatonlyabouthalfofthoseareableto
deployatanygiventime.Moststayclosertohomeandmaintainan
operationaltempofarbelowaColdWarpeak.

TheUnitedStateshas53attacksubmarines,allnuclear-powered,aswell
asfourothernuclear-poweredsubmarinesthatcarrycruisemissilesand
SpecialOperationsforces.Atanygiventime,roughlyathirdof
America'sattacksubmarinesareatsea,eitheronpatrolsortraining,
withtheothersundergoingmaintenance.AmericanNavyofficialsand
WesternanalystssaythatAmericanattacksubmarines,whicharemadefor
speed,enduranceandstealthtodeployfarfromAmericanshores,remain
superiortotheirRussiancounterparts.

ThePentagonisalsodevelopingsophisticatedtechnologytomonitor
encryptedcommunicationsfromRussiansubmarinesandnewkindsof
remotelycontrolledorautonomousvessels.MembersoftheNATOalliance,
includingBritain,GermanyandNorway,areatthesametimebuyingor
consideringbuyingnewsubmarinesinresponsetotheKremlin's
projectionofforceintheBalticandArctic.

ButMoscow'srecentlyrevisednationalsecurityandmaritimestrategies
emphasizetheneedforRussianmaritimeforcestoprojectpowerandto
haveaccesstothebroaderAtlanticOceanaswellastheArctic.

Russiansubmarinesandspyshipsnowoperatenearthevitalundersea
cablesthatcarryalmostallglobalInternetcommunications,raising
concernsamongsomeAmericanmilitaryandintelligenceofficialsthat
theRussianscouldattackthoselinesintimesoftensionorconflict.
Russiaisalsobuildinganunderseaunmanneddronecapableofcarryinga
small,tacticalnuclearweapontouseagainstharborsorcoastalareas,
Americanmilitaryandintelligenceanalystssaid.

And,liketheUnitedStates,Russiaoperateslargernuclear-powered
submarinesthatcarrylong-rangenuclearmissilesandspendmonthsata
timehidinginthedepthsoftheocean.Thosesubmarines,although
lethal,donotpatrolliketheattacksubmarinesdo,anddonotposethe
samedegreeofconcerntoAmericanNavalofficials.

AnalystssaythatMoscow'scontinuedinvestmentinattacksubmarinesis
incontrasttothequalityofmanyofRussia'slandandairforcesthat
frayedinthepost-ColdWarera.

"IntheRussiannavalstructure,submarinesarethecrownjewelsfor
navalcombatpower,"saidMagnusNordenman,directoroftheAtlantic
Council'strans-AtlanticsecurityinitiativeinWashington."TheU.S.
andNATOhaven'tfocusedonanti-submarineoperationslately,and
they'veletthatskilldeteriorate."

ThathasallowedforarapidRussianresurgence,WesternandAmerican
officialssay,partlyinresponsetowhattheysayisRussia'sfearof
beinghemmedin.

"Idon'tthinkmanypeopleunderstandthevisceralwayRussiaviewsNATO
andtheEuropeanUnionasanexistentialthreat,"AdmiralFergusonsaid
inaninterview.

InNaples,attheheadquartersoftheUnitedStatesNavy'sEuropean
operations,includingtheSixthFleet,commandersforthefirsttimein
decadesarehavingtocloselymonitorRussiansubmarinemovements
throughthemaritimechokepointsseparatingGreenland,Icelandandthe
UnitedKingdom,theG.I.U.K.Gap,whichduringtheColdWarwerecrucial
tothedefenseofEurope.

Thatstretchofocean,hundredsofmileswide,representedthelinethat
SovietnavalforceswouldhavehadtocrosstoreachtheAtlanticandto
stopUnitedStatesforcesheadingacrosstheseatoreinforceAmerica's
Europeanalliesintimeofconflict.

Americananti-submarineaircraftwerestationedfordecadesattheNaval
AirStationKeflavikinIceland-inthemiddleofthegap-butthey
withdrewin2006,yearsaftertheColdWar.TheNavyafterthatrelied
onP-3sub-hunterplanesrotatingperiodicallythroughthebase.

Now,theNavyispoisedtospendabout$20milliontoupgradehangars
andsupportsitesatKeflaviktohandleitsnew,moreadvancedP-8A
Poseidonmaritimepatrolaircraft.ThatmoneyispartofthePentagon's
new$3.4billionEuropeanReassuranceInitiative,aquadruplingoffunds
fromlastyeartodeployheavyweapons,armoredvehiclesandother
equipmenttoNATOcountriesinCentralandEasternEurope,todeter
Russianaggression.

NavyofficialsexpressconcernthatmoreRussiansubmarinepatrolswill
pushoutbeyondtheAtlanticintotheMediterraneanandtheBlackSea.
RussiahasoneMediterraneanportnow,inTartus,Syria,butNavy
officialsheresayMoscowwantstoestablishothers,perhapsinCyprus,
EgyptorevenLibya.

"IfyouhaveaRussiannuclearattacksubmarinewanderingaroundthe
Med,youwanttotrackit,"saidDmitryGorenburg,aRussianmilitary
specialistattheCenterforNavalAnalysesinWashington.

Thismonth,theDefenseAdvancedResearchProjectsAgencychristeneda
132-footprototypedroneseacraftpackedwithsensors,theSeaHunter,
whichismadewiththeintentionofhuntingautonomouslyforsubmarines
andminesforuptothreemonthsatatime.

Thealliesarealsoholdinghalfadozenanti-submarineexercisesthis
year,includingalargedrillscheduledlaterthisspringcalledDynamic
MongooseintheNorthSea.Theexerciseistoincludewarshipsand
submarinesfromBritain,France,Germany,theNetherlands,Norway,
PolandandtheUnitedStates.

"WearenotquitebackinaColdWar,"saidJamesG.Stavridis,a
retiredadmiralandtheformersupremealliedcommanderofNATO,whois
nowdeanoftheFletcherSchoolofLawandDiplomacyatTufts
University."ButIsurecanseeonefromwherewearestanding."
[returntoContents]<#n0>

#22
WallStreetJournal
April18,2016
Russia'sWilyMenandWomen
Russiansholdviewsthatseemimpossibletoreconcile.Studentsata
reputableschoolofferacuriousmixofheroes:StalinandSteveJobs.
ByJOSHUAYAFFA
Mr.Yaffa,ajournalistbasedinMoscow,isacontributortotheNew
Yorker.HeisalsoafellowatNewAmerica.

PUTINCOUNTRY
ByAnneGarrels
Farrar,StrausandGiroux,228pages,$26

In2000,atthedawnofRussia'sPutinepoch,thesociologistYuri
Levadapublishedanarticletitled"TheWilyMan."Init,Mr.Levada
drewaportraitofaparticularlyRussianspecies-apersonalitytype
forgedbyamixtureofdoublespeak,irresponsibilityandthesuspicion
thatmaterializedduringtheSovietUnionandwasleftdisorientedby
thecollapseofthatsystem.Thewilymanisnotparticularlyfooledby
propagandaheknowsthestate'sweaknessesandfoibleswell.Butthat
doesnotmakethewilymanopposedtotherulingsystem-hedependsonit
andfearsitsabsencemorethanwhateverhardshipsitsexistencemay
bring.Thewilyman,Mr.Levadawrites,"notonlytoleratesdeception,
butiswillingtobedeceived"and,what'smore,"requires
self-deceptionforthesakeofhisownself-preservation."
Althoughthenominalsubjectof"PutinCountry"isChelyabinsk-an
industrialcityofonemillionpeopleeastoftheUralMountainsandits
surrounding,mineral-richregionofcoalminesanddenseforests-the
book'sdeeperandmorerevelatorythemeisthatoftheRussianwilyman.
AnneGarrels,itsauthor,isalongtimecorrespondentforNPR,andshe
hasthereportorialadvantageofbeginningherobservationof
Chelyabinskin1993,whenthewoundoftheSovietcollapsewasstill
fresh.Ms.Garrelshasreturnedtotheregionmanytimesovertheyears,
includingalongstintduringMr.Putin'smomentousandcurrentthird
presidentialterm,whichbeganin2012.

OnhermorerecentvisitstoChelyabinsk,Ms.Garrelsfindsacity
transformed-Moscowwasn'ttheonlycitybeautifiedthankstothe
country'swindfallofoilandgasprofitsinthe2000s.ChanelandH&M
haveshopsintownvisitorshavetheirpickofaHolidayInnora
Radisson.Chelyabinskcanbeacosmopolitan,happeningplace-thoughnot
onepronetoliberalpoliticsoroppositionactivism.Hencethebook's
title.

YetadecadeandahalfintoMr.Putin'srule,therearefewplacesin
Russiauntouchedbythesystemhehasconstructedandnowlordsover:
It'sall"PutinCountry."Ms.Garrelsadmitsthatallthoseyearsago
shefirstchoseChelyabinskatrandom-theresultofliterallythrowinga
sharpenedpencilatamap-andinawaythatshows:Thereislittle
remarkableabouttheplace,thoughthatisalsowhatmakesthebook
worthwhile.ThiscouldbeanywhereinRussia.

WhatmakesChelyabinskcompellingisitspeople.Theyarelargelydecent
andundeniablyintelligent,protectiveofwhattheyhaveachieved,wary
oftheunknown,and,aboveall,cleverandflexibleatadaptingto
changingtimes.Inaword,theyarethewilymen(andwomen)ofMr.
Levada'sessay.Earlyinthebook,Ms.GarrelsintroducesIrina,a
magazineeditorinher30swhohasaSwisseducationandaEuropean
wardrobe.Yetsheharborsa"resentment,almostanoutrighthatred"for
theWest.Irina,Ms.Garrelswrites,islikemanyinChelyabinsk:"They
aresickofbeatinguponthemselves.Theyaresickoftheircountry's
beingseenasnothingmorethanamafia-riddenkleptocracy-eventhough
theyarethefirsttocomplainaboutcorruption.Theyaresickofthe
West'sbeatinguponthemfortheirsins,especiallynowtheyaremore
awareofWesternsins."

LaterwemeetNatalia,whowasawomen's-rightsadvocateinthe1990s
andisnowfocusedonincreasingRussia'sbirthrateasamemberofthe
politicallyloyalcitycouncil.Herinterestsmayberetrogradeand,at
times,illiberal,butforNataliaacertaincynicismisasignof
enlightenmenttobeoverlyearnestistobenave.The1990s,asa
familiarargumentgoes-repeatedsomanytimesbyRussianpoliticiansand
punditsastobecomeakindofmantra-werelessatimeoffreedomthan
ofchaos."Idon'twanttorepeatthatperiod....Wedestroyedas
muchaswedeveloped,"Nataliasays.

PerhapsmosttellingisAlexander,wholivesinavillagefivehours
fromthecity.HeadmiresMr.Putinandthesystemthepresidenthas
built,evenashecomplainsthatcorruptionisrife,governanceispoor,
andthelocaleconomyisheldbackbyanoverbearingandrapacious
state.Alexander'scriticismsmirrorthoseofthecitizensinthebook
whoconsiderthemselvesdissidentsandactivists,thoughAlexanderwould
neverconsiderhimselfeitherone."HeisproudofPutin,"Ms.Garrels
writes,"andbetweenhimandthosewhodreadtheircountry'scurrent
course,thereisanunbridgeabledivide."

Thissortofinternalcontradictionisn'tuniquetoAlexander.Manyof
theRussiansMs.Garrelsmeetsholdviewsthatseemimpossibleto
reconcile.Shecitespollsthatshowthattwo-thirdsofethnicRussians
callthemselvesOrthodoxbelievers,butmanyofthoseverysamepeople
saythattheydonotbelieveinGod.Atonepoint,theauthorvisitsa
prestigiousstatesecondaryschoolwherethestudentsofferacurious
mixofheroes:JosephStalin,SteveJobs,BillGatesandGandhi.The
searchforapost-Sovietideologyhas,inChelyabinskandacrossRussia,
ledtoastrangemishmash,atoncefaithfulandmystical,distrustful
andfatalistic.

Although"PutinCountry"offersatactilesenseoflifeinChelyabinsk,
itcanalsofeelshallowandimpressionistic:Localwomen,Ms.Garrels
writesatonepoint,area"farcryfromthebabushkasofyore."More
frustratingaretherathersensationalallegationsthatdropinoutof
nowhereandareleftunexplored,suchasherclaimthatprisoninmates
inChelyabinskwerereleasedtofightonthesideofpro-Russianrebels
inUkraineiftheyrefused,shewrites,theyfacedfurtherpunishment.

AccordingtodoomsayersintheWest,thePutinsystemwassupposedto
havemetitspoliticaldownfallmanytimes:aftertheglobalfinancial
crashof2008-09,aftertheseasonofanti-Putinprotestin2011-12and,
mostrecently,after2014,whenWesternsanctions,lowoilpricesanda
tankingrublepushedtheRussianeconomyintoarecession.Butthe
rulingarchitecturethatMr.Putinhasbuilt-nottomentiontheman
himself-hasproveddurableinplaceslikeChelyabinsk.Forhislong-term
politicalsurvival,Mr.Putinwillneedtheacquiescence,evenifonly
passive,ofthecountry'swilymenandwomen-somethingthat,fornow,he
continuestoenjoy.
[returntoContents]<#n0>

#23
BulletinoftheAtomicScientists
April14,2016
Interview
FormerUSambassadortoRussiaMichaelMcFaul
ByJohnMecklin

ABSTRACT
Inthisinterview,formerUSambassadortoRussiaMichaelMcFaul
discussesUS-Russianrelationsandhowtheymightbeimproved,given
RussianPresidentVladimirPutin'ssuspiciousviewsofUSintentions.

UntilhisreturntotheUnitedStatesin2014,MichaelMcFaulwastheUS
ambassadortoRussia,servingfortwoyearsinthatpostasrelations
betweenthetwocountrieswentfromtensetodreadful.Duringhis
ambassadorship-andinthreeprecedingyearsasaspecialassistantto
thepresidentontheNationalSecurityCouncil-McFaulplayedamajor
roleintheObamaadministration'sapproachtoPutin'sRussia,first
helpingtodriveanattempted"reset"ofUS-Russianrelationsandthen
tryingtodealwitheventsthatessentiallymadetheresetobsolete:
Moscow'sannexationofCrimeaanditssemi-stealthyinvasionofEastern
Ukraine.

McFaulreturnedtoacademiain2014,butheremainsdeeplyengagedwith
US-Russianpolicy,servingasthedirectorandaseniorfellowat
StanfordUniversity'sFreemanSpogliInstituteforInternational
Studies,aseniorfellowattheHooverInstitution,andaprofessorof
politicalscience.He'salsobeenaninformaladviseronRussianand
EuropeanaffairstotheHillaryClintonpresidentialcampaign.

McFaulspokewithBulletineditorinchiefJohnMecklininJanuary,as
theUSpresidentialprimarieswerekickingoff,thesituationinSyria
continuedtobecomplexandappalling,andtheWestandRussiaremained
atloggerheadsoverUkraine.

BAS:WhatdoyouthinkisthebestwayforwardfortheUnitedStates,
theWest,NATO?Istherereallyanythingtodo?Orshouldwejustbe
waitingforPutintobeoutofthepicture,

McFaul:Well,Iwouldfirstsay,thebestwaytoimproveUS-Russian
relationsisforPutintorethinksomeoftheprovocativethingshe's
done,right?Attheendoftheday,he'stheguywhoannexedCrimea.We
didn'tcausethatconfrontation.He'sthepersonwhodecidedtosupport
theseseparatistsinEasternUkraine.Andtheseareviolationsof
internationallaw,severalofthem,bytheway,treatiesthatRussiahas
signed.Andthoushallnotannexterritory-that'skindofa21st
centurynorm.Itmayhavebeenapracticeahundredyearsago,butit
shouldn'tbeapracticeinthe21stcentury.

Andsotheactionreallycomesonhisside,itseemstome,beforeyou
haveachanceforamorecooperativerelationshipwithourcountry.And
atthesametime,Iwouldjustsaythat,whenthere'snotanaspiration
for"reset2.0,"butjustanaspirationtofocusonaconcreteproblem,
weofcoursecanandshouldcontinuetoworkwiththeRussianswhenit
servesournationalinterest.Andsotheprospectsfornegotiating
somethinginSyria,they'reprobablyprettylow,thoseprobabilities,
butweshouldengagewithRussia,astheObamaadministrationisdoing,
totrytomakethathappen.

SamewiththeimplementationoftheMinskagreement[tohaltthewarin
EasternUkraine].I'dactuallythinktheprobabilitiesforUkraineare
higherthantheyareforSyriarightnow.Butweshouldengageintalk
andtrytoseekthoseoutcomeswhentheybecomeavailable.

BAS:Well,I'mjustcuriousaboutthat.Onwhatdoyoubasewhatyou
justsaid,thenotionthattheRussiansmightactuallydosomething
aboutUkraine?Fromtheoutsideitlookslike,no,they'renotaboutto
giveCrimeaback,ordoanythingabouttheeasternpartofUkraine,
exceptwhatthey'vebeendoing.Doyouknowsomethingelse.

McFaul:We'reontherecord,right?

BAS:I'mrecording,yes.

McFaul:SoIwouldjustsaythis,thattheRussianeconomyhadoneof
itsworstyearsinadecadelastyear.Thereisasensethatit'snot
goingtobeeasytogetbackontrack.Andthereisadebatenow
unfoldinginRussia,quietly,notabigdebate,mostlyanelitedebate.
Butthereisadebate,andsomeprominentpeoplesometimesmakeit
public,likeHermanGrefofSberbank[Russia'slargestbank]didjust
lastweek,thatmaybewe'vegonetoofarhere,andthatwhatarewe
reallygetting?Hedidn'tsaythisexactlyIdon'twanttoputwords
intoHermanGref'smouth.ButwhatIwouldsay,lookingatthisdebate,
isthattherearesome[inRussia]whothinksanctionsreliefismore
importantthancontinuingtokeepthisfesteringquasi-civilwargoing
inEasternUkraine.

Idon'twanttojudgetheoutcome.Idon'twanttopretendIknowwhat
Putin'sthinkingabout.Butthefactthatthedebateishappening,that
atthehighestlevels,includingwithPutinfromtimetotime,USand
EuropeanofficialsaretalkingwithRussiansaboutthat.Otherlittle
thingsthathavehappenedrecently-where[USStateDepartment]
AssistantSecretaryVictoriaNulandmetinKaliningradwithValadislav
Surkov,aKremlinadvisor,totalkaboutthesethings.That'snew.That
wasn'thappeningjustsixmonthsago.

AndsoIdon'twanttogetaheadofmyskisandbetoooptimistic,butI
seeactivitywithrespecttotryingtoresolvetheconflictinEastern
Ukraine.NotCrimea-Iwanttopointthatout.Crimeaisreallynot
beingdiscussed.ButIseemoreactivitythanjustayearago,and
whetheritleadstoresultsornot,Ican'tpredict.Buttherearemore
attemptstotrytoresolveitthantherewerebefore.

BAS:WhatisyourgeneralassessmentofPutin?Ishesomebodywhowould
listentootherpeoplesuggestingthathechangepoliciesinUkraine?
Again,lookingfromoutside,itseemstomehe'sgotaworldviewthat
theWesthasbeenprogressivelytryingtoessentiallyoverthrowhis
government.Wouldhelistentootherssaying,"Yeah,butweneedtocalm
downtheUkrainethingformoney'ssake?"

McFaul:Well,hemostcertainlyhasthatworldview.Ithinkthat's
right.Imean,I'velistenedtohimpersonallydescribeit.Sohedoes
assignthismotivationtoWesternleaders,includingPresidentObama,
and,whenIwasambassador,tomepersonally.Justasweinhisview
havefomentedregimechangeintheArabworld,andthenthecolor
revolutionsbeforethat,andthenafterthatinRussiaandUkraine,he
seesusorheassignstousthatkindofbothambitionandcapability-
grosslyoverstatedandinaccurateinmymind,Ijustwanttomakethat
clear.It'sallinhismind,becausewewerenotfomentingrevolutionin
EgyptortheseotherplacesandmostcertainlynotinRussiaorUkraine.
Butthat'shisworldview,that'sright.Iagreewiththat.Andthat's
notgoingtochange.Nobody'sgoingtoconvincehimotherwiseatthis
stageinhispoliticalcareer.

Atthesametime,hedoesfaceeconomicchallenges.Andhe'sasmart
enoughguytospeakwiththosewhoworryabouttheeconomyinakindof
rationalpragmaticway.Andsoyou'vegottodealwiththat,
irrespectiveofwhatyouthinktheAmericansaredoingornotdoing.And
thatIthinkisthedebateunderwayinRussiarightnow.

BAS:SomehavesuggestedthatPutin'slostconnectionwithrealityI
thinkthosewere[GermanChancellor]AngelaMerkel'swords.Imean,you
don'tseemtohavethatviewofhim.Youthinkofhimasquiterational.

McFaul:No.Iwanttobeclearaboutthat.Ithinkyoucanhavetwo
impulsesatthesametime.First,tomakeeverybodyreallysimpleis-
frommyexperienceingovernment,it'sthebiggestflawthatwe
academicshave.Like,he'sarationalactor,orhe'snot.Itturnsout
thatmostpeople,includingmanyAmericanleadersthatIobserve,have
bothofthoseimpulses.We'renotjustrealistsandneocons.Youknow,
there'samixofthingsthatpeoplewant.Andsometimes[ideasin]the
mixofwhatyouwantclash,right?Andthefactthatyouhavetwodual
impulsesthatclashdoesn'tmakeyoucrazyitjustmeansyouhavetwo
differentpreferences,right?

Tomakethislessabstract:Igainedweightasanambassador,right?I
wanttoloseweight.ThatisanobjectiveIseek.Andyetifyouputa
cookieinfrontofme,I'mlikelytotakeabiteofit,evenifit's
contradictingthatothergrandgoalthatIhave.Thatdoesn'tmakeme
crazythat'skindofhumannature.AndIwouldsaythesameabout
Putin.PutincanbesuspiciousoftheWestandwillbealongthelines
wejusttalkedabout.Andattimes,whenhethinksitmeetsanother
objectivethathealsoseeks,hewillbewillingtoengageanddodeals
withus.Aswesawbefore,whenwewerehavinganincrediblyheated
debatewiththeRussianswhenIwasinthegovernmentaboutthenature
ofthechallengetotheAssadregime.Andhethoughtweweresupporting
regimechange.Andweweretryingtosupportapoliticalsolution.And
wenevercouldcometoagreementonthatquestion,atleastnotyet.And
evenamidstallthattension,wealsodidthedealonremovingchemical
weaponsfromSyria,right?

Sohe'scapableofthat-Idon'tknowwhatyouwouldcallit-
compartmentalization,maybe,whereyoucanstillhavethatviewbutalso
cooperateonsomething.Andlet'sjustbeclear.Ifheeverdidreally
leanintoenforcetheMinskAgreementanddothethingsthatRussiaand
theirsurrogatesinEasternUkrainewouldhavetodo,ofcoursehewould
frameitas,"Well,weachievedvictory,andsonowwecandothese
things."Hewouldnotsay,"BecauseObamaandMerkelputpressureonme,
I'venowchangedmypolicy."Hewouldneverspeakinthosetermstohis
peoplebackhome.

BAS:AretherethingstheUnitedStatescoulddotohelphimsaveface
inthatway?

McFaul:Youknow,Ithinkthepolicyhasbeenveryclearandconsistent.
AndIleftthegovernmentacoupleyearsago,butIthinktheideathat
ifyouannexacountryandyousupportaproxyindependencecampaignin
thecountry,thereshouldbeapricetopayforthat.AndI'mimpressed
bythefactthat[theObamaadministration]managedtogetsuch
comprehensivesanctionsandtoholdtheminplace.That'snotaneasy
diplomatictasktokeeptheminplace.
AndI'mimpressedbytheadministration'sveryrational,non-emotional
statementthatitrepeatedlymakes,whichis,"Ifthisaccordis
implemented,thenwewillliftthesanctionsthatweputinplacein
responsetothisinterventioninEasternUkraine."Ithinkthat'sthe
correctway.SoPutinknowsexactlywhathe'sgetting.
MypersonalassessmentoftheMinskaccordis-Ithinkthat'sapretty
weakdeal.Ithinkit'snotagreatdealfortheUkrainians,frankly.
But,youknow,itwasnegotiated.ThepresidentofUkrainesignedit,so
there'snotawaytorenegotiatethat.ButIsaythatbecauseIdon't
thinkitwillbethathardforPutintosellitbackhomeasan
achievementforRussia.

BAS:I'vehadalotofpeopleexpressconcerntomeaboutthenumberand
kindofmilitaryexercisesthatNATOandtheUnitedStatesandRussia
areengagedin.Andinreadingupforthisinterview,Inoticedyou've
advocatedthatsomedefensiveweaponsbeprovidedtoUkraine,andthat
moretroopsbestationedinNATOcountriesthatareundergreatest
threatfromRussia.Howdoyouseethedangerofanyofthisactually
escalating,becomingwhatwealldon'twant,somekindofshootingwar?
Whereisthebalancebetween,okay,weshouldshowtheRussiansthat
theycan'tjustwalkintotheBaltics,butatthesametimenotcreate
situationsthatcouldactuallyleadtowar.

McFaul:Well,thebestwaytopreventwarintheBalticstatesisto
makeitjustimpossibleforPutintoconsidergoingintoandinvadinga
NATOcountry.HereIagreewithRonaldReagan,peacethroughstrength.
Whichistosay,ifit'sambiguouswhatourcommitmentis,tome
ambiguityincreasestheprobabilityofconflictwithrespecttoourNATO
allies.It'snottheotherwayaround.Ithinkinadifferenttimeone
wouldarguedifferentthings,right?Therewasatimenottoolongago
whenIwasinthegovernmentwhereIdidn'tseetheneedforsomeof
theseexercisesbecausewewereinamuchmorecooperativetimewith
Russia.[Then-RussianPresidentDmitri]MedvedevcametotheNATOsummit
andlistenedin2010andsaidbasicallytheColdWar'sover,andwecan
cooperatewiththeNATOalliance.Thatwasjustfiveyearsago,bythe
way.Weweretalkingaboutcooperatingonmissiledefense.

Sointhatkindofera,theideaofmakingmorecredibleour[NATO]
Article5commitmentsdidnotseemnecessary.ButPutininvadeda
country.Imean,heannexedterritoryinEurope.Thatdemandsa
response.Sothattomemeansthatonehastomakethosecommitments
lookmorecredibleatatimewhenthey'vebeendrifting,andpeoplehave
beenuncertain.Withrespecttothealliance,Ithinkthatthat'sthe
wayweavoidwar.

Andbytheway,somepeopletalkaboutRussiacomingintotheBaltic
statesIthinkthat'saprettylowprobability.Gettingbackagainto
thethingswetalkedaboutearlier,Idon'tthinkPutin'sthatcrazy.
Butwewanttoreducetheambiguityasmuchaswecan.

BAS:YoutalkedearlieraboutevenwiththishugedivideoverUkraine
andtosomedegreeSyria,theremaybeotherareasthatRussiaandthe
UnitedStatescouldstilltalkandreachagreement.Howdoyouview
nucleararmscontrol?Isthatsomethingthatcancontinueatallbefore
Ukraineissolved?Ornot?

McFaul:Idon'tthinkithastodowithUkraine.WhenIwasinthe
government,wehadaveryclearpolicyofnolinkage,right?Very
controversialwithsomeofourcritics,Iknow,butwebelieved,again,
borrowingfromtheReaganadministration-that'swheretheseideas,at
leastforme,camefrom-thatifweweregoingtohaveprogressonarms
control,wehadtodelinkthatfromotherissues,whetherit'sUkraine
todayorbackthenitwouldhavebeensomeotherissues.Andthatwas
ourfirmpolicy.And,wegottheNewSTARTTreatydone.Iwaspartof
thatteam.Butwediditindependentlyofotherthingsgoingoninthe
relationship.Ithinkthatneedstobethestrategymovingforward.I
thinkitwouldbestrangetosaythatuntilyouleaveCrimea,we'renot
goingtodomorearmscontrol.Iwouldn'tsignuptothatkindoflinkage.

ButIwouldsaytheprobabilitiesofanewagreementanytimesoonare
nexttozero.That'sessentiallybecausetheRussiansdon'twantto
engage.They'rehappywiththenewSTARTtreaty."Happy"isastrong
word.Theyhavelearnedtolivewithitandhaveacquiescedtoit.But
theideaofgoingtolowernumbersandstartingnegotiations,theydon't
wanttodo.Infact,theymadeitclearwellbeforeUkraine,whenIwas
stillinthegovernment,thattheyweren'tinterestedinanotherround
ofnegotiations.Withonecaveat:Whattheywouldalwayssay,"Well,as
longaswebegintotalkaboutlimitsondefensiveweaponsandmissile
defenses,thenwecouldstarttohavethatconversation."

AndtheObamaadministrationwasnotwillingtoacceptthatkindof
precondition,andI'mnotthatoptimistic.Idon'tknowallthe
[presidential]candidates,butIwouldthinkit'dberatherdifficultin
2017tobeginasetofnegotiationsoveranewtreatythatwouldinclude
limitsonourmissiledefensesystemsatthismomentintime.

BAS:Wouldn'tthatmoreorlessprecludeanyarmscontrolagreements?

McFaul:Yes.That'swhatIsaid.It'snotbecauseofUkraine,that'smy
point.It'sbecauseoftheseotherdynamicsinthestrategicbilateral
relationship.

BAS:I'mgoingtoaskaquestionthatmayjustbetoopoliticalforyou
togetinto.Ifso,justsayso.Butwhatareyourthoughtsaboutsome
waytonudgetheAmericanpresidentialelectoralprocesstowardmore
realisticdiscussionsofmajorinternationalaffairsissues,suchas
US-Russianrelations?Oristhatjusthopingfortheimpossible,thatat
leastinageneralelectiontherecouldberealisticdiscussionofoptions?

McFaul:Well,italldependsonwhatyoumeanbytheworld"realistic,"
becausethere'sactuallyalotofvariation,ifyouaddTrumptothe
equation,abouthowtodealwithRussiainthedebate.Myassessmentis
thatwhatTrumpissayingabouthisstrategyvis-a-visPutinisvery
unrealistic.SoIdon'tknowwhereyoucomedownandthewayyoudefine
realistic,buttheideathathe'sjustgoingtoforgetaboutCrimea,and
we'regoingtogetalongwithPutin,andI'mgoingtododealsbecauseI
knowhowtododeals-thatdoesn'tsoundveryrealistictomeor
pragmaticintermsofthestrategy.

Conversely,theotherextreme-thatI'mnotgoingtotalktotheguy
becausehe'sathug-thatalsodoesn'tsoundrealistictome.That
doesn'tsoundlikeastrategythatadvancesAmericannationalinterests.

Iguessintermsofjusttactics,wheneverI'maskedbyjournalistswho
actuallyinteractwiththesecandidatesfromtimetotime-forme,when
Ilistentothedebate,Iwanttoknownotwhatthegoalis.That's
easy.Anybodycansetoutsomegoal.Therealquestionis,"Howareyou
goingtoachievethatoutcome?"Right?Andtothatend,youalways,in
myview,havetohavearealisticconversation:"Well,whatwouldyoudo
differentlythanwhatthecurrentadministrationisdoingthatwould
thengiveusanyreasontobelievethatyouwouldbemoresuccessful
withwhatyou'retryingtodo?"

ManycandidatestalkaboutISIS,right?"We'regoingtobombISIS.We're
goingtodefeatISIS."Well,tellmeexactlyhowyou'regoingtodefeat
ISIS.HowmanytimesareyougoingtoattackISIS?Doyouevenknowhow
manytimestheadministrationhas?I'llbetyoualotofpeopledon't
knowthattherehavebeenover10,000attacksagainstISISsofar.And
theprogram,OperationInherentResolve,ismeasuredinthebillions[of
dollars]already.Soyou'regoingtodoublethat?You'regoingtotriple
that?Andthentelluswhyyouthinkthatwillachievetheendsyouwant.

IwouldsaythesamethingaboutPutin.Soyou'regoingtobetoughwith
Putin?Well,whatdoesthatmean?Whatexactlydoesitmeantobetough
withPutin?TherearemoresanctionsonmoreRussiansandmoreRussian
companiestodaythanprobablyatanypointinthe200-yearhistoryof
US-Russianrelations.Soyou'regoingtotriplethat?Whatdoesitmean
tobetoughbeyondwherewe'reattoday?

ButamIoptimisticthatwe'regoingtohavethatconversation?No,I'm
notoptimistic.

BAS:Itsurewouldbenicetohaveinsomeofthesedebatesthe
moderatorsbeissueandareaexperts,asopposedtoacablenewstalking
head.Butthat'sprobablyafar-fetchedwishalso.
I'vetaken25minutesoutofyourlifealreadyhere.ButIwanttoask
onemorequestion.

McFaul:Allright,sir.

BAS:TheotherdayGeorgeShultzandBillPerrydidaBulletinevent
thereatStanford.Theywerebothdescribingasortoftrack-two
diplomacykindofthingthattheyweregoingtohavetheyhadhad
variouslevelsofRussianofficialscomevisitStanford,andtheywere
goingtohavemore.Andtheyweresuggestingthatonewaytoimprovethe
relationshipwas,ashappenedbackwhentheSovietUnionwasdissolving,
tohavemoretrack-twoactivity,moreexchangeattheexpertlevelin
academiaandatthescientistlevel.Whatdoyouthinkaboutthat?Does
thatactuallyeverhelpanything?

McFaul:I'malwaysabigfanoftracktwoengagements,orwhatIwould
callsociety-to-societyengagements.Tracktwooftentimeshassome
pretensionsthatwe'regoingtotalk,andthenwe'regoingtogotoour
governmentsandtellthemwhattodo.AndI'mallforthataswell.I
participatedinthosemeetingsthatGeorgeandBilljustorganizedlast
week.ButIjustthinkmoreconnectivitybetweensocietiesingeneralis
goodfortheAmericannationalinterests.Becausewe'regoingtohave
disagreementswiththeRussiangovernmentandwiththeRussianpeople
aboutsubstantiveissues.Ithinkwecouldreducethem,butwe're
inevitablygoingtohavesomeofthose,nomatterifPutin'sthereor
somebodyelse.

Whatwecan'tallowistohavedisagreementsbasedonbadinformationor
misperception.AndIseethatalotrightnowinUS-Russianrelations.I
witnesseditwhenIwasinthegovernment.IwitnesseditwhenIwas
ambassador.Anditdrovemenuts.Youknow,whenwe'rearguingabout
whethertwoplustwoequalsfiveorfour,that'snogood.Thatmakesthe
biggerproblemsthatweneedtosolvenearlyimpossible.Soanytime
therecanbemoreinteractionbetweenscientists,betweenstudents,
betweenformergovernmentofficialsinthekindoftracktwoway,I
thinkbothofoursocietiesinthelongrunwillbebetteroff.
[returntoContents]<#n0>

#24
TheAmericanInterest
www.the-american-interest.com
April19,2016
HOWTHEWESTMISJUDGEDRUSSIAPART13
TheKremlin'sTriadastheMeansofSurvival
TheWestneedstounderstandthattheRussianSystemiswillingtofight
foritssurvival,andthatthisfightcouldtakemanydifferentforms.
ByLILIASHEVTSOVA
LiliaShevtsovaisanonresidentseniorfellowintheCenteronthe
UnitedStatesandEurope,partoftheForeignPolicyProgramatthe
BrookingsInstitution.FormerlywiththeCarnegieEndowmentfor
InternationalPeace.

Editor'sNote:HowdoRussiaandtheWestseeoneanother?Whatarethe
experts'viewsontheconfrontationbetweenRussiaandtheWest?Howdo
thepunditsexplaintheRusso-UkrainianwarandRussia'sSyriangambit?
WhataretherootsofthemythologyaboutRussiaintheWest,andwhy
hastheWestfailedtopredictandunderstandRussia'strajectory?This
isthe13thandfinalessayinaseriesthatseekstoanswerthese
questions.

Civilizationsinastateofdecayhavetoimprovisetostayalive,but
theseimprovisationsoftenhavedramaticimplicationsfortherestof
theworldandcanevenacceleratedemiseratherthanpostponingit.

Russiatodayisexhibitingafunnellogicofakindonecouldciteasan
exampleofsuicidalstatecraft.First,theKremlincreatesaproblemand
then,intryingtodealwithit,provokesevenmoreseriousproblems.
TheCrimeaannexationinMarch2014wasthepointofdeparturefora
ruinous,seeminglypredestinedpathforRussiaunderthecurrent
politicalregimeithardlyseemspossiblethatRussiacanchangecourse.
TheannexationwasfollowedbyRussia'sundeclaredwaronUkraine,which
distractedtheworld'sattentionfromCrimeabutyieldedgrave(domestic
andinternational)consequencesforRussia.TheKremlinbegantolook
forexitfromtheUkrainiancrisisandsodraggedRussiaintotheSyrian
quagmire.

TheSyria"project"wasintendedtoreturnRussiatotheglobalMega
League.1Amarginalizedstatecan'tbeasuperpower,whichforRussia
constitutesoneofthekeypillarsofthepersonalizedpowersystem.
Timeisacriticalfactor:AEuropeconsumedwithitsownchallengesand
alameduckU.S.PresidentgavetheKremlinwhatitviewedasawindow
ofopportunity.TheKremlinpolicyof"coercivedating"-thatis,
rampinguppressureinordertoforcetheobjectofdesireintoa
dialogueorcooperation-hadtopersuadetheWesternleaderstoagreeto
anewbargaininordertostaveoffanotherroundofRussianbulldozing.

U.S.-RussiacooperationonIrancreatedanimpressionthatthesame
wouldbecontinuedonSyria.ZbigniewBrzezinskiwrote,
"Onemighthavethought...thatthenextphaseincopingwiththeSyrian
problemmightinvolvearenewedefforttoresolveit....Instead,Moscow
haschosentointervenemilitary,butwithoutpoliticalortactical
cooperationwiththeUS....AtbestitwasadisplayofRussianmilitary
incompetenceatworst,evidenceofadangerousdesiretohighlight
Americanpoliticalimpotence."

IwouldaddthattherewasonemorereasonforMoscow'sSyrianforay:
Obama'srejectionoftheKremlin's"GrandAnti-TerroristCoalition"
idea,whichforcedMoscowtoturnto"coercivedating."

TheKremlinwarinSyrianotonlyaddedtothedestabilizationofthe
MiddleEastbutalsoincreasedtheterroristthreatinRussiaandfor
Russia.AfterRussiagotitselfinvolvedinSyria,itsconfrontation
withTurkey,whichhasitsownpowerfulinterestsintheregion,was
unavoidable(thoughunexpectedfortheKremlinnonetheless).

InMarch2016Moscowannouncedthepulloutof"itsmainforces"from
Syria,anannouncementthatonceagainbaffledtheworld.TheRussian
militarycampaigndidnotachievetheKremlin'sproclaimedgoals:
strengtheningtheSyrianstateandpreventingIslamicradicalismfrom
spreading.ButtheKremlinhassucceeded,atleastpartially,withits
realagenda:Ithasbrokenitsinternationalisolationandforcedthe
Westtoacceptitasanactorthatcan'tbeignored,andithaspushed
theUkrainiancrisistotheperipheryoftheinternationalscene.
Moreover,Moscowhasreturnedtousingmilitaryleverageasan
instrumentofinternationalrelations.TheendoftheColdWarproved,
however,howdisastrousmilitaryescalationcanbeforasysteminan
advancedstateofdecay.ItcouldbeevenmoredevastatingforRussia,
whichisevenmoredependentontheWestthantheSovietUnion.

Hence,theoutcomeoftheKremlin'ssurvivalescapadesisuncertain.On
theonehand,itsforeignpolicyhasbeensuccessfulinbuildingnew
domesticlegitimacyatatimewhenitsinternalresourceshavebeen
crumbling.Ontheotherhand,ithasbecomeevidentthatthenexus
betweendomesticandforeignpoliciesistoocostlyandcouldsetoffa
timebomb.TheKremlintodayhastodealwithanundeclaredwarwith
Ukraine,anongoingwarinSyria,andaconfrontationwithTurkey.In
caseofendingtheseconflicts,theKremlinhastolookforanew
justificationforits"nationatwar"survivalmodel.Meanwhile,
Russians,whohaveturnedintoconsumerists,arenotgoingtosacrifice
theirlivingstandardsindefinitelyforwarsandasearchforenemies
thathavenoapparentconnectiontotheirinterests.The
military-patrioticdrughasstartedtowearoff.

Tryingtofindabalancebetweenconfrontationandcooperationwiththe
West,theKremlinoffersconflictingmessages.Fromtimetotimeit
appearstohavedecidedtoswitchtotheroleofPeacemaker."Wearenot
interestedinconfrontationbetweenRussiaandtheWest"isoneof
Lavrov'sfavoriteslogans."DespitetheunfriendlystepsofourWestern
partnerswecontinuetofightagainstmovingdowntotheprimitive
confrontationalmodel,"theRussianForeignMinisterhasrepeatedagain
andagain,doinghisbesttoconvincethefewwhostillbelievethis
rhetoric.

OnehastolistentothewholeRussiansymphony,ofcourse.This
friendlyaccompanimentcan'toverpoweranothermuchlouderandmore
centralmelody:"Russiaisnotgoingtostepback."Russiarefusesto
live"inastateofsemi-occupation,"Putinhaswarned,startingwith
hisfamousFebruary2007speechinMunich.LavrovexplainswhyRussia
hasbeendissatisfied,
"OurWesterncolleagues[havesetonacourseof]preservingtheir
dominationinworldaffairsbyallpossiblemeans,onseizingthe
geopoliticalspaceinEurope....Ateachstageofthecrisis's
development,ourAmericancolleagues,andundertheirinfluence,also
theEuropeanUnion,havebeentakingstepsleadingtoescalation."

ChairmanoftheStateDumaSergeyNaryshkinechoesthis:"TheU.S.is
interestedininstabilitythatgivesthemthepossibilitytocontinue
oldandnewmischief."Peacefulstatements,aren'tthey?Russia'swarin
SyriaanditsconfrontationwithTurkeydemonstratethatMoscowcould
putonthewarhelmetanywhere,atanytime.Butconfrontationisnot
theKremlin'sgoal-notatall!TheRussianrulingteamisnotkamikaze,
evenifitsometimeslooksthisway.Confrontation,orratherthethreat
ofconfrontation,isthemeanstocreateafavorableinternational
environmentfortheRussianSystem,toforcetheWesttoacceptthe
Kremlin'sgameandtojustifytheanti-WesterninsulationofRussian
society.

HereishowPutinexplainshispolicy:Americaisguiltyofallevils
happeningtotheworld,butwearereadytoofferadialogueandgive
themachancetobehave.ThisistheusualPutinstatement:"Attempts
[byWashington,ofcourse]topromoteamodelofunilateral
domination...haveledtoanimbalanceinthesystemofinternationallaw
andglobalregulation,whichmeansthereisathreat,andpolitical,
economicormilitarycompetitionmaygetoutofcontrol...."Butthe
RussianPresidentgiveshopetotheworld:"Forallthedramaofits
currentsituation,Syriacanbecomeamodelforpartnershipinthename
ofcommoninterests,resolvingproblemsthataffecteveryone,and
developinganeffectiveriskmanagementsystem."InhisStateofthe
UnionmessagePutinsaid,"Weneedtostopallourargumentsand
overcomedifferences,andbuildpowerfulfist,aunitedanti-terrorist
front."

ThenewNationalSecurityStrategyofRussia,signedbythePresidenton
December31,2015,showstheverynatureoftheKremlin'spolitical
thinking.ThepriorityfortheRussianauthoritiesisnotthequalityof
lifeofRussiancitizens,butthedefenseofRussia.Butdefenseagainst
whom?Whoaretheenemiesthatforcethestatetospenditsshrinking
resourcesondefenseanddeterrencebutnotonsocialproblems?Itlooks
likethekeythreatis"unsustainabilityoftheglobalandregional
architecture,based,especiallyintheEuro-Atlanticregion,onlyonthe
NorthAtlanticAlliance."ThisisintheKremlin'sviewthekeythreat
toRussia.Whowoulddoubtit!ButtheKremlinisnotgoingtostartan
armsraceoranewColdwarwiththeWest.AstheNationalSecurity
Strategysays,Russia"issupportingstrengtheningoftheengagement
withtheEU"and"isreadyfordevelopmentofrelationswiththeNorth
Atlantictreaty,"andRussia'sgoalisthe"buildingofstrategic
partnershipwiththeUSonthebasisofequalityandcommoninterests."
Butwhatkindof"partnership"ispossiblebetweenRussiaandtheWest,
whoseexpansion"eastward"totheRussianborderallegedlyhasbrought
aboutthecurrentconfrontation?

Somecouldcallthisapproachpoliticalschizophrenia.Othersmayseeit
asdemonstrationofthecognitivedissonance.Iwouldrefrainfromthe
medicalterminologyandarguethatasoupofincompatibleingredientsis
thebestwaytoportraytheKremlin'sTriadparadigm:"Tobewiththe
WesttobeinsidetheWestandtobeagainsttheWest."ThisTriad,
withanemphasisonthefirsttwoelements,helpedtheKremlintoplay
theWest-andquitesuccessfully-duringtheprevious25years.Annexing
Crimea,theKremlinhadtobelievethattheWestwouldbeangrybutin
theendwouldbeabletostomachthenewgeographicallandscape.It
couldhavegonethisway,ifnotfortheaggressionagainstUkraine
Westernpatienceprovedlimited.

TheWorldofAmbiguity

TheKremlin'supdatedinternationalagendasoonrevealeditself.As
Putinsaid,the"Ukrainecrisis"isnotreallyaboutUkraineatall:"It
hasemergedinresponsetotheattemptsoftheUSAanditsWestern
allieswhoconsideredthemselves'winners'oftheColdWartoimpose
theirwilleverywhere."InMunichin2015,Lavrovacknowledgedthat
UkraineistheinstrumentthatshouldforcetheWestto"negotiateanew
securitysystemonthebasisofre-confirmingtheHelsinkiprinciples."
(Indeed,thereisanelementofhypocrisyinthesestatements:Ukraine
hasfortheKremlinanindependentvalueasanelementofRussia'sgalaxy.)

InDecember2015,intheinterviewforthemovieGlobalOrder,Putin
madeclearhispositiononthewarinSyria,statingthat"ISISisnota
crucialfactor"intheKremlin'sinternationalagenda.Thekeychallenge
fortheKremlin,Putindeclared,is"thegeopoliticalstruggle"andthe
needtoestablish"commonrules"basedon"internationallaw."(One
could,ofcourse,explorehisorhersenseofironybycontemplating
callstoobserveinternationallawfromtheRussianleader.)Hence,one
couldconcludethattheRussianauthoritiesthinkthatitistheright
momenttoforcetheWesttostartdiscussingthenewworldorder.To
debatetheepicdilemma-WarorPeace,orhowtodealwithGlobal
Disorder-isawell-knownSoviettrick.Itcouldtakedecadesbeforethe
Westernpartnersdiscoverthattheyhavebeenengagedwithsomeone
sellingair.Butthenagainperhapssomeofthemcouldfindthisprocess
profitabletoo.

AstheGermansocialistEdwardBernsteininthe19thcenturysaid,"The
processiseverythingandthegoalisnothing!"Leninlaterlikedto
paraphraseNapoleon("Ons'engageetpuitonvoit"):"Let'sgetfighting
andseewhathappens!"WeknowwhattheoutcomeofLenin'sprinciplewas
forRussiaandtheworldinthe20thcentury.Todaythisrecipeisthe
tacticofchoiceforapoliticalregimethatisnotreadytolosebut
hasnothingtooffer.

SomanytimestheRussianpoliticaleliteanditspunditscomplained
thatthecurrentorderisunjust,humiliatingforRussia,andprovoking
a"neo-Versaillessyndrome."TodaytheKremlindemandsareadjustmentto
theglobalrulessoastogiveRussiaamoredignifiedroleonthe
internationalscene.Thisisit!The"pivot"toChinaandallthefairy
talesabouttheBRICSbecominganalternativepolehavejustbeen
instrumentstopersuadetheWesterncapitalstorenewtheirengagement
withMoscow."Otherwisewe'lldoitwithBeijing!"theywarn,but
withoutmuchconvictionrecently.TheinterventioninSyriaandconflict
withTurkeyhavetogiveadditionalpersuasivenesstotheKremlinoffer.
Ofcourse,thenewdialoguehastobebuiltontheKremlin'sterms.The
Kremlin'sideaofdialogueisbasedonthebeliefthattheWesthas
historicallyexhausteditself,andthemomenthascomewhenRussiacan
suggestwhatLavrovrecentlydescribedas"movementtowardpartnership
ofcivilizations."True,hedoesnotexplainhowthispartnershipcanbe
achievediftheRussianleadershipcontinuesitsanti-Westerncrusade.
ButiftheWestisnotreadyfor"partnership",newattemptstopersuade
itwillfollow.

Butwhatistheblueprintofthe"newworldorder"suggestedbythe
Kremlin?Itisintentionallyvague.Putinhasbeenconstantlyreturning
toideaoftheYaltasettlement,whichlegitimizedareasofglobal
influence.Butdoeshereallybelieveinpossibilityofredrawingthe
bordersandreturningEasternEurope,togetherwiththepost-Soviet
space,intoMoscow'spocket?OrdoeshebelievethattheWest,together
withIranandtheSunnistates,willagreetodividetheMiddleEast
withRussia?Hardly.

Rhetoricmeansnothing.TheKremlinispursuinganexemplary
post-postmodernpolicycomprisedofincompatibleelementsandblurred
linesbetweenprinciplesandnorms,warandpeace,rightandwrong,
realityandimitation,allyandenemy,lawandlawlessness,andinternal
andexternalconflict.Thestate-intrudercouldeasilystartthe
struggleforpeace.Thetopicof2015Valdaiconferencewas"Societies
BetweenWarandPeace:OvercomingtheLogicofConflictinTomorrow's
World."TheKremlin,afterhavinginitiatedmilitaryconflict,has
decidedtoofferitsvisionofhowtoestablishalastingpeace.Very
Putinesque!(AndtheWesternpunditryreadilytookpartinthisKremlin
exercise.)

TheRussianSyrianwithdrawalisonemoreexampleoftheKremlin's
"post-postmoderntechnique."Itwasunexpected,anditcreated
uncertaintyastowhetheritwasatotalpullout,apartialone,oreven
notapulloutatall!2Hereyouare:theKremlinisenforcingits
versionoftheHobbesianworldorderithastobebasednoton
internationaltreatiesandtrust,butontheambiguity,uncertaintyas
totheintentionsoftheactors,andtheirreadinessforsurprise
breakthroughs.ThisorderhasnothingincommonwithYaltaorthe
EuropeanConcert!Inthosetimes,thearchitectsofthoseorders
followedtheiragreements,oratleasttheydidnotwanttobeblamed
fornotfollowingthem.3NowtheKremlinwantstohavetherightto
interprettherules.TheRussianrulingcorporationalsowantstohave
thepossibilityofinfluencingtheWestfrominsideoftheWestern
communityandusingallbenefitsofglobalizationandengagement.Global
OrderalaRusse!Machiavellilookslikeaschoolboycomparedtothe
Kremlin'stechnologists.

TheworldordertheKremlinofferstodayisevenmoreambivalentthan
thepost-communistworld,butthisisadifferenttypeofambivalence
thatreliesonthereadinessoftheilliberalactorforcoercive
pressure.ThefactthatMerkelandHollandetacitlyacceptedRussiaas
bothanintruderandamoderatorintheconflictoverUkrainegavethe
KremlintheimpressionthattheWestwouldsoonerorlaterendorsethe
approachithasbeenseeking.

Moscow'sSyrianadventuremerelyreinforcesthispattern,whichisbased
onanassumption(orbelief)thattheWest-especiallyEurope-willbe
forcedintheendtoplaytheKremlin'sgame.AsSergeiLavrovstressed
attheMunichSecurityconferenceinFebruary2016,theWesternpartners
aremoving"towardourunderstanding,"andthisis"veryencouraging."4
WelcometotheWorldofFuzziness!

Canthischimeralive?AsAndrewWoodwrote,anynewsecurity
architecture"wouldrequiresomecommonunderstandingoftheunderlying
facts".But"thatisnowabsentbetweenRussiaandtheWest".Besides,
Woodadds,suchconstruction"wouldalsorequiresomedegreeof
confidencebetweentheleadersofcountiestryingtobuildsucha
system,andthattooisnowabsent."

Butwhataboutthepragmatists'refrain,theonethattheyhavebeen
singingevenloudersinceRussia'sSyriaforay,about"common
interests"?BoboLo,associatefellowatChathamHouse,respondsto
thosewho"deludethemselves"thattheyshare"commoninterests"with
theKremlin:"Thedivergenceismuchmorefundamentalanddeeprooted.
NotonlyistheredisagreementoverRussia'sroleintheworld:Thereis
awideningchasmonglobalgovernance,internationallaw,andevenon
whatconstitutesstatebehavior."EventheWesternpragmatists,recently
staunchsupportersofjoint"strategicvision,"admit,"Weinterpret
differentlykeyprinciplessuchassovereignty,territorialintegrity,
andself-determination:wedifferoverwhatconstitutesthelegitimate
useofforcewedisagreeaboutlegitimacyofsphereofinfluence....
Toughcompetitionwasandremainsinevitable."Ithasbeenapparentfor
sometime,hasn'tit?

TheKremlin'stoolkithasmanyinstrumentstopursueitsagenda.One
hastobepreparedfortheKremlintosayonethingandmeananother,or
tomeannothingatall.Oldsymbolsandpatternsareinterpretedby
Moscowaccordingtoitscurrentgoals,aswithitsreferencestothe
"Yaltaarrangement."

Moreover,theKremlinisreadytobreakchina.ThisishowtheGerman
historianKarlSchlogelinterpretedPutin'sbehavior,"'Idon'twantto
acceptyouroldrulesofthegame'-andhehitsyouintheface."It's
enoughtoprovokeconsternationandshockamongWesternpartners
accustomedtopoliteness,correctness,anddiplomaticroutineoriented
towardcompromiseandmutualconcessions.

DoesPutinbelieveinfeasibilityofhisnew"GrandProject,"orishe
playingintheglobalcasino?Itdoesnotmatterwhathebelieves
anymorethepopularexercises,"WhatdoesPurtinthink"and"Whois
MisterPutin,"areawasteoftimebecausebothitsrhetoricandits
actionsaredesignedtoimitate,tomanipulate,andtohide
disorientationandhelplessness.I'llbettheKremlintechnologists
wouldloveustocontinueourendless"Putiniana"tryingtoguessthe
motivationsoftheKremlinbossinsteadofdeliberatingonthelogicof
theSystemandtheconsequencesofitsTriadsurvivaltactics.

Therearealotofvariablesthatremainunclear:thedegreetowhich
theKremlinunderstandsrealityandtheimplicationsofitsactionsits
readinessforself-restrainttheWest'sabilitytounderstandthe
Kremlin'sintentionsandputupaunitedfrontandfinally,thegravity
ofRussia'seconomicandsocialcrisisanditsdomesticimpact.Toomany
tippingpointsoreitherMoscow'sortheWest'sinabilitytodealwith
ambiguitycouldbringanotherconfrontationanymomentevenifthetwo
sidesinvolveddonotwantit.

Post-postmodernfuzzinesswouldbeacomfortableorderformanyinthe
West,too-forthosewholoathenormativedogmatism,orwhohavegrown
accustomedtotheseductive(andprofitable!)pragmatismofthepastfew
decades.ThisambiguousorderisthebestenvironmentforRussia's
rentierclasstomaintainitslinkswith"Londongrads"invarious
WesternstateswhilealsoinsulatingRussiansocietyfromWesternnorms
itwouldalsoallowtheRussianregimetobaseitsdomesticlegitimacy
onanti-WesternismwhilekeepingitsseatatthetableintheWest's
institutionsofinternationalgovernance.Thisambiguousworldwould
allowtheRussianSystemtocontaintheWestwithoutworryingaboutthe
threatofcontainmentandsubverttheWestfromwithin.Whatagreat
invention:lowcostsandhighrewards!TheColdWar,bycontrast,wasa
foolishstrategy.Muchbettertoblackmailyourfoeintoparticipating
inyoursurvivalproject.

True,therearetwotrapsintowhichRussiaandtheWestcouldfall
whilefollowingthisstrategy.Thefirstisthattherequirementsof
maintainingFortressRussiamaypreventtheKremlinfromachievinga
GrandBargainwiththeWest.Thesecondtrapis,fromtheWest'spoint
ofview,aCatch-22:AnybargainthatwouldallowtheKremlinto
interprettheglobalrulesofthegameasitchooseswouldunderminethe
coherenceandunityofWesternprinciples.Butrejectingthebargain
couldincitetheKremlinbulltowrecktheWesternChinashop.The
liberaldemocracieshardlyarereadyforaclashwithanuclearfoe.

Thisisadeadlock,andthereappeartobenowayout-atleastaslong
astheWestcontinuestodefendapost-ColdWarstatusquothatno
longerexists.

AreWeReadytoRethinkOutmodedIdeas?

IntheseessaysIhavetriedtopresentasnapshotofthestateof
expertopinioninstudiesofcontemporaryRussiaanditsrelationship
withtheWest,showinghowtheyrelatetoreality.Iregrettosaythat
25yearsagotheexpertsstruggledwithoutmuchsuccesstograspthenew
realitythesameistruetoday.

Thepragmatistshavesofarfailedtopredictandunderstandtheturn
thatRussiamadein2013-14anditsimplicationsforthecountry,for
internationalrelations,forEuropeansecurity,andevenforthe
trajectoryofliberalcivilization.We,thenormativists,havefailedto
alerttheworldofwhatwascoming."We'vebeensurprisedatevery
turn....WeweresurprisedwhentheywentintoCrimea,weweresurprised
whentheywentintoSyria,"saidSenateArmedServicesCommittee
ChairmanJohnMcCain(R-AZ).Iwouldadd:theworldwasequallybaffled
whentheKremlinannouncedthepulloutfromSyria.Surprisehasbeenthe
dominantcollectivereactiontoRussiasofar.FionaHill,directorof
theCenterontheU.S.andEuropeattheBrookingsInstitution:"Putin's
RussiapresentsauniquechallengetotheWestern-backedworldorder"
butrightnow"theWestdoesnotknowhowtorespond."

Weall(theRussianandtheWesternexperts)stillhaveavague
understandingofwhatthedeclineofRussia-thenuclearpetrostate,a
half-frozenempire,andoneofthearchitectsofglobalorder-might
bring.ItremainsunclearwhetherRussianrevisionismwilltriggerthe
creationofaglobalIlliberalInternational(therearesomesignsthat
wealreadyaredealingwithelementsofaglobalauthoritarian
offensive).5Ifitdoes,whatwilltheWesternresponsebe?Weareas
yetunpreparedforthecrisesofotherpost-Sovietsystemsandtheways
theywillaffectthesecurityandbalanceofforcesinEurasia.Itis
alsounclearhowunifiedandcapabletheWesternworldwillbewhenit
comestorespondingtothiscivilizationalandgeopoliticalchallenge.

Manyobserversseemtounderstandthatoldnarrativeshavebeen
exhausted.6Unfortunately,quiteafewamongusaretryingtoreinvent
themselvesmerelybyrecyclingoldrhetoric.We,thenormativists,have
beenunableasofyettofusethemoraldimensionandprincipleswith
thepoliticalinstrumentsapplicabletodecision-making-that,orwehave
beentootimidinourdebateswithopponents.

Fortheirpart,thepragmatistswhostilldominateRussianandEurasian
studiescontinuetobelievethatthemainactors-RussiaandtheWest-can
operatewithinthesamelogicalframeworkandcaninterpretthebalance
ofinterestsandviewconflictresolutionandcrisismanagementinthe
sameway.ButtheoperatorsoftheRussianSystemhaveanentirely
differentunderstandingofreality,andhavedifferentprioritiesand
meanstoachievethem.Asaresult,thepragmatistsfindthemselves
defendingeitherdefunctoroutdatedmodels,andtheiranalysisand
adviceoftenyieldtheoppositeofwhatthey'resupposedto.

Asamatteroffact,thepragmatistsnowfindthemselvesinamore
vulnerablepositionthanthatoftherealistsduringtheColdWar
period.Atthattime,theWestwaspreparedtocontaintheSovietsand
promoteitsprinciplesabroad,whiletheUSSR,atleastinitsfinal
stage,wasreadytoabidebyagreements.Today,however,the
pragmatists,whohaveborrowedtheconceptofbalanceofpowersand
otherrealistaxiomswhilerejectingthenormativedimension,arebeing
disarmedbyaRussianSystemthatisassertingitselfbybreaking
agreementsanddenyingthatithasdoneso,andbyimitatingprinciples.
Realismtodayinthepragmatists'handssoundslikeitcomesstraight
fromtheKremlin'splaybook.Infact,keypragmatistarguments-including
theirdogmason"commoninterests,"theneedtorespondtoRussia's
"grievances"andtheKremlin'sdemandsfor"equality",theirpivotto
geopolitics,theircallsto"accommodate"theKremlin"tosomedegree"
(towhatdegreeexactly?)andunderstanditsrighttohave"areasof
interests"-notonlyhavebeenhelpingtobuildafavorableenvironment
fortheRussianSystemofpersonalizedpowertheyhavealsobeen
disorientingtheKremlinandprovokingitsrecklessnessdomesticallyand
internationally,oftenendingindisasters(forRussiaaswell).Indeed,
thepragmatistsbearatleastpartialresponsibilityfortheKremlin's
latestactions,whicharebasedonthebeliefthattheWestwouldbe
readytoaccommodate-justasthepragmatistspromised!

Untilrecentlythepragmatistshavebeenbuildingtheirdiagnosisand
adviceonthebasisofRussianpollsthatshowskyrocketingapproval
ratingsforPutinandstrongsupportforhisanti-Westernpolicy.These
pollsaresupposedtojustifythepragmatistconclusion:"Youhaveto
takeRussia'asitis.'"ThismeansthatRussiansarehopelessandthey
can'taccepttheWesternnormsthatiswhytheWesthastoacquiesce.
ButhowwouldthepragmatistsexplainRussiatoday,whenRussiansare
growingrestlessandtheirsupportfortheauthoritieshasbegunto
wane?OneoutofeveryfourRussiansadmitstobeingafraidtovoicehis
(orher)truefeelingsaboutthesituationinRussia.Thiscouldmean
thatweshouldtaketheleader'shighapprovalratingswithagrainof
salt.ThepercentageofRussianswhothinkthatthecountryisheadedin
therightdirectionfellfrom64percentinJune2015to45percentin
January2016,andthenumberofRussianswhothinkthatRussiaisonthe
wrongtrackrosefrom22to34percent.Andthisisonlythebeginning
ofthetrend.Willthepragmatistscontinuetocallforaccommodatinga
regimethatislosingsupport?

Thepragmatistsstruggletoexplaintheparadoxes,orrathertraps,the
Kremlinhasbeenbuilding(oftenunexpectedlyforitself).Theyinsist
thatRussia'sactionsareultimatelygroundedinarationalbasis.But
how,then,doesoneexplaintheKremlin'spolitics,whichbrings
Russia'sisolationanddeepensitsinternalcrisis?Pragmatists
constantlyemphasize"theobjectivity"oftheirapproach.Buthowcan
oneclaimtoexplainRussia'sbehaviorifonedismissestheimpactof
norms,history,traditions,domesticdevelopments,andevolutionof
thought?Howusefulisthis"objectivity,"whichboilsdowntoa
descriptiveapproachandclumsyattemptstohideone'sownposition?And
howcanone'sclaimtoprovideaccurateassessmentswhensuch
assessmentsarebasedondatacherry-pickedfrompro-Kremlinsourcesand
fromthepro-Kremlinpunditcommunity?

Indeed,thepragmatistshavetounderstandthattheirtoolkithas
outliveditsusefulnessandisnolongerpersuasive.Buttheytryhard
toreinventshopwornaxioms,evenborrowingfromotherseeminglyalien
ideologicalandphilosophicalarsenals,creatinganunusualmix.The
latestexampleisthevoodoothatKissingerdemonstratedduringhislast
visittoMoscow,whenhehadhisritualmeetingwithPutinanddelivered
alecturethatwaswarmlyreceivedbythepro-Kremlingathering.7

TheRealpolitikgurupresentedtotallyfalseexplanationoftherootsof
thepresentconfrontation,whichallegedlywascausedby"thememoryof
thefirstpost-Sovietdecade,whenRussiasufferedastaggering
socio-economicandpoliticalcrisis,andtheU.S.enjoyeditslongest
periodofuninterruptedeconomicexpansion."This"memory"ofcrisis
duringtheAmericansuccessaccordingtoKissinger"causedallother
policydifferences."Ifthislogiciscorrect,thensoonweshould
anticipateaconfrontationbetweenEurope,whichisexperiencingthe
worstcrisisinitshistory,andAmerica,whichisdoingprettywell!
ButthejewelofKissingerianaisanotheridea.Kissingerarguesthat
thekeygoaltodayistofindacompromisebetweentheAmerican
(Western)perceptionoftheworld,whichreliesonlawsandrules,and
theRussianperception,whichhecalls"geopolitical,"avoidingany
mentionthatthisperceptionrejectstheruleoflaw."Thechallengeof
ourperiodistomergethetwoperspectives-thelegalandthe
geopolitical-inacoherentconcept,"arguestheguru.Thismeansmerging
ruleoflawprincipleswithsubjugationprinciples.Doestheauthorofa
new"philosophicalproblem"believeinthefeasibilityofhissolution?
HemayhaveforgottenhowtheattemptsofWesternandSoviet
intellectualstofindgroundsfortheirdreamof"convergence"of
capitalismandsocialisminthe1960sended.

Todaytheideaofnew"convergence"couldbringcertaindividendstothe
sidesimitatingthe"merger."Butwhatwoulditsstrategicconsequences
be?Itwoulddefinitelyhelptheilliberalsystemtolimpalongusing
theresourcesoftheWest,anditwouldalsounderminetheWest's
sustainabilityandresilience.Thatiswhythepro-Kremlinaudience
applaudedKissinger'slectureinMoscow.ThatiswhytheKremlinwill
continueits"coercivedating,"hopingthattheWestwillacceptthe
"merger."Willitreally?Iwouldremindyouthatthepreviousattempts
oftheWesternelitestoacquiescetotheRussianSystemhavenot
preventedthecurrentconfrontationbecausetheWestfailedto
understandonetruth:Intheilliberalmindset,everyconcessionmeans
backtracking,creatingadesiretopressthedemandsevenfurther.Do
thepragmatistsunderstandthattheirtacticsofacquiescenceerasethe
"redlines"forilliberalregimes,provokingrecklessbehaviorthat
otherwisetheywouldnotrisk?

TheWest'spunditclasshastorethinkquiteafewothermythsthatit
persistsinclingingto.OneofthemisthebeliefthattheWestern
expansionoftradeandeconomicrelationswithilliberalstateswill
bringabouttheirdemocraticchange(thepolicyGermanyhasbeen
pursuingfordecades).AsHannesAdomeit,aBoschPublicPolicyFellow
withtheTransatlanticAcademy,pointsout,thistradeandeconomic
expansion"canservetosolidifyanauthoritariansystemratherthanact
asdriverfordemocratizationandliberalization."

ExchangeanddialoguewiththeWestandslogansabout"engagement"also
helpilliberalactors,whoaremoreastuteaboutusingthemfortheir
ownpurposes.Maybethepragmatistsshouldtrytothinkaboutwhythis
happensbeforetheystartchantingtheirfavoritesong:Weneedto
broadentheexchange!Thistimetheexchangeagendaisdifferent:
insteadofbuildingacommon"strategicvision,"pragmatistssuggest
"managingtheRussia-Westernconflict"bymeansof"trustedindividuals
onbothsides"capableofengaginginconfidentialdialogueson
contentioustopics.Isn'tithilarious?Thosewhohavefailedtopredict
andunderstandtodaywantto"manage"theresultsoftheirfailures.

Finally,whenhavethepragmatistsaskedthemselveswhytheir
assessmentshavemissedthemark?Haveanyamongthemadmittedbeing
wrong?This"comingout"wouldbeveryhelpfulforrestoringthe
reputationoftheexpertcommunity.

Theinabilityofthepoliticalandexpertcommunitytorespondtonew
challengesoftencreatesanurgetomovethe"unsolvable"problemtothe
backburner,ortocomeupwithanimitationsolution.Thisiswhatis
happeningtodaywiththecrisisoverUkraine.Thiscrisis,despiteits
presentde-escalation,willcontinuetohaveatremendousimpacton
Europeansecurity,thegeopoliticallandscape,andthecivilizational
clashbetweentheWestandtheIlliberalInternational.Boththe
UkrainiansandtheWesthavebeenforcedtoreconcilethemselvestoa
illusorysolution(soasnottoirritateMoscow)thatdisorientsthe
world,undermineslegalframeworks,anddemoralizesWesternandglobal
institutions.Italsocreatesthepossibilitythatthesameprocessof
buildingamechanismforpretendingwillbeplayedoutelsewhere(some
pragmatistshavesuggestedthatweshouldusetheMinsk-2formulato
solvetheSyriacrisis),sincetheglobalsystemhasshownthatitis
notpreparedtoreacttogeopoliticalambiguityandimitation.

Duetoitscivilizational,normativedimension,theclashbetweenRussia
andtheWestinUkraineisboundtoinfluencetheapproachesthatboth
sidestaketofutureproblems.Let'snotdeceiveourselvesthatweare
dealingwithaphenomenonthatwillgoawayassoonPutincomestohis
sensesorleavesoffice,orwhenMoscowandtheWestbegintocooperate
somewhereelse.Letmereiterate:Wearedealingwiththelogicofa
particularcivilization-onewhosesurvivalresourcesaredwindlingand
whosepoliticalclassispowerlesstotransformthesystem-thatwill
continuetoreenergizeitselfthroughtheenemysearch(evenasit
cooperateswiththisenemy).

Let'sgivetheKremlinsomecredit:Today,bydemonstratingits
assertivenessandachievingtacticalgains,theRussianrulershave
shownusthattheWestneedstofocusmoreonitsownoutmoded
mechanismsandlackofstrategicvector.TheKremlinhasshowntheWest
thatitneedstorenewtheliberaldemocraticprinciplesthathavebeen
discreditedbyideologicalfuzzinessandaccommodation.

Giventhefailuresoftheexpertcommunity,canthenormativistsandthe
pragmatistsgettogetherforadiscussionaimedatclarifyingtheir
respectivepositions-iffornootherreason,thenatleastforthesake
ofsavingthereputationoftheexpertcommunity?Isthisarealistic
goal?Idon'thaveananswertothisquestionrightnow.

Inanycase,theWestneedstounderstandthattheRussianSystemis
willingtofightforitssurvival,andthatthisfightwilltakevarious
forms.Themosteffectiveformcouldbetotakeadvantageofthe
globalizationandintegrationoftheRussianrentierclassintothe
Westerncommunity,aswellasWesternpolitical,intellectual,and
expertweaknesses.It'stimefortheWesttowakeitselffromitsdreams
of"engagement."PullingoldColdWarrecipesoutoftheboxwon'thelp
eitherweliveinadifferentrealitytoday.Bydrudgingupobsolete
models,the"mythologists"couldtemporarilywintheday,butonlyat
thecostofbeingshockedbydevelopmentsitdidnotpredict.
Onethingisclear:arrivingatarealistic(notaccommodationist)
understandingofRussia'strajectory-perhapsthemainchallengeofthe
21stcentury-isimpossiblewithoutsomeseriousself-reflectiononthe
partoftheRussiaexpertcommunity.

Footnotes
1TheRussianpro-KremlinobserverVladimirFrolovadmitsthatPutin's
"SyrianGambit"wasaimedattransformingtherelationshipwiththeWest
andhelpingto"regainRussia'srightfulplaceasaglobalpower."But
evenapro-Kremlinobserverhastoacknowledgethata"newEntente
CordialebetweenRussiaandtheWestisunlikely."
2AfterPutinannouncedthepartialwithdrawal,thecommanderofthe
RussianforcesinSyria,GeneralAlexanderDvornikov,admittedthatthe
Russian"spetznaz"hasbeenoperatinginSyriaandwillcontinuetooperate.
3UlrichSpecksaysthattheinternationalsystemtheKremlinistrying
toenforce"recallsthe1930s,whenMussolini,Hitler,andStalinwere
tryingtoreplacetheexistinginternationalorderwithanewsystem
basedontheideathatonlymightmakesright-aDarwinistsystem
deprivedofeverytraditionalethicalorlegalconstraint."
4TheRussianparticipationintheAlepposiege,whichbroughtcollapse
oftheGenevapeaceprocess,wasenforcementoftheKremlin's"peace
plan"forSyria.
5Seediscussionofthe"AuthoritarianResurgence"intheJournalof
Democracy(January2015).
6SomeRussianpragmatistshavestartedtoexpressconcernsregarding
theKremlin'spolicy.FiodorLukianov,praisingRussiandiplomacy,says,
"[E]vengooddiplomatscan'tmasklackofpurposeintheforeignpolicy."
7AEI'sGaryJ.SchmittcommentedonKissinger'sapproachinhislecture
inMoscow,"Kissinger's'realist'approachisneitherrealisticinits
descriptionoftheproblemsintherelationshipnorinthepathto
addressthem."AlexMotyl,aprofessorofpoliticalscienceatRutgers
University-Newark,waseventougher,sayingthatKissinger'srecently
articulatedvisionforU.S.-Russiarelations"consistsoflargeswaths
ofboilerplatelanguageandseveraldisingenuousargumentsdemonstrating
thatthearchitectofdtentehasnoideahowtofixwhatPutinhasbroken."

[returntoContents]<#n0>

#25
RussiaBeyondtheHeadlines
www.rbth.ru
April21,2016
Atacrossroads:Theanxietiesofaglobalizedworld
InanRBTHexclusive,formerSovietleaderMikhailGorbachevwrites
abouttheinternationalcrisisofleadershipandthechallengesfacing
politiciansaroundtheworldinatimeofmoraluncertaintyandlackof
unityandvisionforthefuture.
MIKHAILGORBACHEV,SPECIALTORBTH

Whereistheglobalworldheadinginthe21stcentury?Peopleareasking
thisquestiontodaywithincreasinganxiety.AndIamoneofthem.

Withmyfriend,thelateHans-DietrichGenscher[foreignministerand
vicechancellorofGermanyfrom1974-1992-RBTH],weoftenaskedthe
followingquestion:Whatwentwrong?Ourgeneration-agenerationof
politicianswhosejointeffortscontributedtoendingtheColdWar-
carriedoutitsmission.Butthenwhyistoday'sworldunquiet,unjust
andmilitarized?

Itseemedthattheendoftheglobalconfrontationandtheunprecedented
possibilitiesofnewtechnologies,primarilyinformational,shouldhave
giventheworldanewbreath,makingeachindividual'slifebetter.But
realityhasturnedoutdifferently.

Thisdoesnothaveaneasyexplanation.Ioftenusedtosaythat
politicianswerenotuptopar.Thosewhodeclaredthevictoryofthe
WestintheColdWar,whorefusedtobuildanew,equitablesecurity
system,bearalargeportionoftheresponsibilityforthecurrentstate
oftheworld.Triumphalismisabadadvisorinworldaffairs.
Butthatisnottheonlyproblem.Thenewglobalworldisstillnot
understoodandinterpreted.Itneedsnewrulesofconduct,anew
morality.Buttheworldleaders,apparently,cannotgraspthis.

Ithinkthathereliesthemainreasonfortoday's"globaltroubles."

Whowonandwholostintheglobalworld?

Peopleareworriedaboutthetensionininternationalaffairs,butthey
arenolessworriedabouttheirownsituation,theirownfuture.Thisis
allinterrelated.

Eveninthemostdevelopedcountriesthemajority(themiddleclassis
thefoundationofeverysuccessfullydevelopingsociety)expressesits
dissatisfactionwithitslife.Votersaremorefrequentlysupporting
populistpoliticianswhoproposeapparentlysimplebutinreality
dangeroussolutions.

However,irresponsiblefinancialstructureshavewelladaptedtoand
benefitedfromglobalization,allblowing"soapbubbles"andmaking
billionsliterallyfromtheair.Thesebillionsfindtheirwayintoa
narrowcircleofpeoplewhohidethemfromtaxation.Wehavejustseen
newexamplesofthis.Butthisisjustthetipoftheiceberg.

Allthiswithoutmentioningthefactthatorganizedcrimestructures,
drugdealers,armsdealers,groupsprofitingfrommassivemigrantflows,
cybercriminalsandmostimportantly,terrorists,allfeelvery
comfortableintheglobalworld.

Politicalcrisis,leadershipcrisis

Worldpoliticshasstillnotfoundaneffectivesolutionforanyoneof
theseproblems.Meanwhile,anewroundofthearmsracehasbegun,the
ecologicalcrisisisgettingworseandthegapbetweenrichandpoor
countriesisgrowing,aswellasbetweentherichandthepoorwithin
individualcountries.Thesearetheproblemsthatmustbeonthetopof
theworld'sagenda.Buttheyarenotbeingsolved.Deadendsareeverywhere.

Andyetitwouldseemthattherearepossibilitiestoovercomethem,as
wellasmechanisms-thosethathaveexistedforalongtime,suchas
theUN,andnewones,suchastheG20,whichwascreatedtomeetthenew
challenges.Buthardlyanyonecansaythattheyhavebeensuccessful.
Theyarealwayslate,theyarealwaysbehind.

Wearefacedwithaleadershipcrisis,bothinternationalandnational.
Politiciansarejustoccupiedwith"puttingoutfires,"solvingthe
day'sproblems,crisesandconflicts.

Nooneisarguing.Theymustbesolved.Andinthelastweekstherehave
beensomepositivebreakthroughs.

ThereisdialogueonSyria.Eventhoughfornowitsbiggestparticipants
areexternalcountries,primarilytheU.S.andRussia.Butthishas
alreadyhelpedtoloosenthetensionsbetweenRussiaandtheWest.

Ifthistrendisdevelopeditcanthenbeappliedtootherspheresof
relations.Butthiswillbealengthyandcomplicatedprocess.Trusthas
beengreatlydamaged.

Ontheotherhand,therehavebeennobreakthroughstosolvingthe
Ukrainiancrisis.Thecurrentregulatorymechanismsareworkingpoorly.
Thereistheimpressionthatthemechanismsarebecomingaroutine.We
shouldnotabandonthemechanisms(theMinskagreements,theNormandy
Four).Butevidentlytheyneedtobecompletedandstimulatedtowork.
PossiblythroughdiscussionsintheUNSecurityCouncilorother
mechanismswiththeparticipationofRussiaandtheU.S.

WecannotleavetheUkrainiancrisisasanabscess,creatingafever
throughoutEuropeandtheworld.Europemaynotwithstandanotherfrozen
conflict.IagainaskpresidentsObamaandPutin(Ididthisforthe
firsttimein2014)tomeetanddiscussthiscontinuingcrisis.

Lookingfartherahead

Butevenifweareabletoovercometheacutecurrentcrisis,itwillbe
animportantbutonlyafirststeptosolvingamuchmorecomplex
problem:learninghowtoliveinaglobalworld.

Withoutaglobalcontextitisimpossibletounderstandthereasonsfor
andconsequencesofthecurrentconflictsanddeveloparenewedagenda
andresourcesforsolvingtheproblemsthatwillinevitablyariseinthe
world.

Intheworldpolicyagendathemostimportantthingistocorrectly
understandthepriorities.

TheRussell-EinsteinManifesto,[formerSwedishPrimeMinister]Olof
Palme'sideasoncontemporarysecurity,JohnKennedy'sspeechon"the
worldforeveryone,"theUSSRandtheU.S.GenevaDeclarationsin1985
(confirmedbyReykjavikandtheagreementstostopthenucleararms
race)-thesewereall"proposals"tocreatesuchanagenda,ontopof
whichwouldbeplacedhumanity'smainproblems.

Asoftodaytheseare:

-thecontinuousproblemofweaponsofmassdestruction,armsraces,the
militarizationofworldpolitics

-theproblemofpovertyandtheunderdevelopmentofanenormouspartof
humanity

-theecologicalchallenge,climatechange

-terrorism

Otheracuteproblemsaremassmigration,xenophobiaandreligious
intolerance,andtheproblemofco-existenceofvariouscivilizations.

Thecommondenominatorofalltheseproblems:notoneofthemcanbe
solvedmilitarily.

Tosaythatitisnecessarytouniteeffortswouldseemlikeanaxiom.
Butfornowdisunityandtheinabilitytoacttogetherareprevailing.

Governmentsandtheirleadersbearthemainresponsibilityforsucha
stateofaffairs.Theglobalworldnowhasotherparticipantsinworld
processes:civilsocietyorganizations,business,thescientific
community,religiousassociations.Buttheroleandresponsibilityof
governments,theirleadersandintergovernmentalorganizationsmust
remaindecisive.

Politicsandmorality:Therulesofconduct

Anotherimperativefortoday'sglobalworldisthenecessitytounite
politicsandmorality.

Thisisabiganddifficultproblem.Itcannotbesolvedinonefell
swoop.Butifwedonotfacethisproblemandworkassiduouslyto
solvingit,theworldwillbedestinedtoexperiencenewconflictsand
unsolvablecontradictions.

"Doublestandards"areespeciallydangerousintheglobalworld.All
possibilitiesforgovernmentstosupport(outoftheirinterests)
terroristandextremistgroupsmustbeexcluded,justlikesupportfor
anymovementpromoting"anarmedfight"tooverthrowlegalgovernments.

Relationsbetweengovernmentsintheglobalworldmustberegulatednot
onlybyinternationallegalnorms,butalsobycertainrulesofconduct
thatarebasedonprinciplesofhumanmorality.
These"rulesofconduct"mustincluderestraint,considerationof
interestsofallsides,consultationandmediationwhenthesituation
intensifiesandthereisathreatofacrisis.Iamconvincedthatit
couldhavebeenpossibletoavoidtheUkrainianandSyriancrisesif
theirdirectparticipantsandespeciallytheexternalpartieshadbeen
guidedbysuchrulesofconduct.

Ibelievethatrulesofconduct,asortofethicalcode,arealsoneeded
forthemassmedia.Theyarealsopartlytoblame.Oftentheyexcite
passionsandsullytheinformationalatmosphere.Insteadofhelpingto
preventandstopconflicts,theypracticallyparticipateinfuellingthem.

ThemostimportantthingthatIwanttosayisthatitisnecessaryto
puttheissuesoftherenewedagenda,thecombinationofmoralityand
politics,andtherulesofconductinaglobalworldatthecenterof
theattentionofgovernmentsandtheworld'scivilsociety.

Russia'srole

IamconvincedthatRussia'sroleinovercomingtheglobalpolitical
crisiscanandmustbeimportantandpositive.ItistimefortheWest
torenounceitsattemptstoisolateRussia.Thishasneverproduced
results."Personalsanctions"willdefinitelynotyieldanyfruit
either.Theyshouldbeliftedfirst.Otherwisetherewillbeno
dialogue,therewillbenochancestorestoretrust.

Nooneshouldexpectthatafterencounteringeconomicdifficulties
Russiawillacceptitssecondaryroleintheworld.Ifthishappenedno
onewouldbenefit.What'smore,everyonewouldonlylosefromanewCold
War.

Acoupleofdaysago,duringhis"DirectLine"ontelevision,Vladimir
PutinstatedhisintentiontonormalizerelationswiththeWest.But
willourpartnersbeabletoreadjusttoamoreconstructiveapproach?
Thisisstillunclear,butIcallonthemtodoso.

Currentlyweareinaverydelicatemoment.Wemustthrowawayour
emotionsandpropagandisticexcess.Seriousclaimscanberaisedagainst
today'sgenerationofimportantleaders.Butthisgenerationstillhas
theopportunitytobementionedwithdignityinthehistorybooks.And
itwouldbeabigmistakenottotakeadvantageofthisopportunity.
[returntoContents]<#n0>

#26
Irrussianality
http://irrussianality.wordpress.com
LEGALBLOWBACK
ByPaulRobinson
UniversityofOttawa

Lawfare,accordingtoWikipedia,is'theillegitimateuseofdomesticor
internationallawwiththeintentionofdamaginganopponent,winninga
publicrelationsvictory,financiallycripplinganopponent,ortyingup
theopponent'stime.'Itishighlyquestionablewhatwouldconstitutean
'illegitimateuseofthelaw',butwhatistrueisthatcertainpeople
areturningtothecourtsasapoliticaltool,andthatsomecourtsseem
willingtohelpthembymakingwhatseemtobehighlypoliticized
judgements.

InMarchofthisyear,forinstance,aUScourtorderedIrantopay
$10.5billionindamagestorelativesofvictimsofthe11September
2001terroristattacksinNewYorkandWashington.AndtodaytheUS
SupremeCourtdeterminedthatIranmustpayalmost$2billionto
relativesofMarineswhodiedinanattackontheirbaseinBeirutin
1983.Yetinaninterviewthisweek,USpresidentBarackObamaopposed
attemptstosueSaudiArabiaforitsallegedroleinthe9/11attacks.
Obamadeclared:'Ifweopenupthepossibilitythatindividualsinthe
UnitedStatescanroutinelystartsuingothergovernments,thenweare
alsoopeninguptheUnitedStatestobeingcontinuallysuedby
individualsinothercountries.'Thusitiso.k.forAmericanstosue
Iranfor$10.5billionfor9/11,eventhoughIranwasnotresponsible,
butnoto.k.tosueSaudiArabia,eventhoughalinkismuchmorelikely.

ThisarbitrarinesshasnotpassedRussiansby.Russianofficialswere
particularlyriledbythe2014decisionofaDutchcourttoaward$50
billionindamagestoformershareholdersoftheoilfirmYukosforthe
allegedlyillegalseizureoftheirassets,despitethefactthatthe
RussianFederationhadnotratifiedthetreatywhichwasbeingusedto
passjudgementagainstit.Inamuchdiscussedarticlethisweek,
AleksandrBastrykin,headoftheInvestigativeCommitteeoftheRussian
Federation,expressedhisfrustration,declaring:

"ClearexamplesarethedecisionsontheYukosaffair,thedecisionon
themurderofformerFSBofficerAleksandrLitvinenko,thereportofthe
Dutchsecuritycouncilontheresultsoftheresearchintotheshooting
downofMalaysianBoeingMH17,theinquirybytheAmericanFBIintothe
legitimacyoftheawardoftherighttoholdtheWorldCuptoRussiaand
Qatarin2018and2022,thekidnappingandforciblerenditiontotheUSA
andsentencingtoalongtermofimprisonmentofourcitizensViktor
BoutandKonstantinIaroshenko,etc."

Bastrykinisnotaloneinhisfrustration.Ina2014articleinthe
ReviewofCentralandEastEuropeanLaw,RussianlegalscholarMikhail
Antonovnotesthatdisenchantmentwiththeapplicationofinternational
humanitarianlawhasdrivenRussianjuriststobecomeincreasingly
conservativeanddeterminedtodefendRussiansovereignty.Thistrend
culminatedthisweekinadecisionbytheRussianConstitutionalCourt
toignoreademandbytheEuropeanCourtofHumanRights(ECHR)that
prisonersshouldbeallowedtovoteinelections.AccordingtoRT,this
'wasthefirstimplementationofalawintroducedinDecember2015.This
actallowstheConstitutionalCourttooverrulethedecisionsof
internationalcourtsifsuchdecisionscontradicttheprincipleof
supremacyoftheRussianConstitution.'

TodateRussiahashadanexcellentrecordinimplementingECHR
decisions-farbetterinfactthanmanyWesternEuropeancountries.
ThisreflectedtheimportancegiventotheruleoflawbytheRussian
authorities.IbelievethattheDecember2015lawmentionedaboveand
theConstitutionalCourt'sdecisionarethereforestepsinthewrong
direction.Buttheyareperhapsinevitableconsequencesofwhatisseen
asthebiasedimplementationofinternationallaw-legal'blowback',if
youlike.

Fortunately,asignthatthingsmightbechangingcamethisweekwith
anothercourtdecision-thistimebyanotherDutchcourt,overturning
theoutcomeofthe2014Yukoscase.TheUSSupremeCourt'sjudgement
againstIransuggeststhattheAmericansarelosingnoneoftheir
appetitefor'lawfare',buttheYukoscasesuggeststhatperhapsthe
Europeansare.
[returntoContents]<#n0>

#27
ChristianScienceMonitor
April20,2016
Revivalofdiplomacy?Ukraine,Russiamakeprogressonprisonerswap.
TheexchangeofUkrainianhelicopterpilotNadiyaSavchenkofortwo
Russianservicemenappearstobemovingahead.Butthedealcouldalso
reopenthequestionofjusthowinvolvedRussiaiswithUkraine's
easternrebellion.
ByFredWeir,Correspondent

MOSCOW-AdealappearstobeintheworksbetweenMoscowandKievto
exchangecapturedUkrainianhelicopterpilotNadiyaSavchenko,recently
sentencedto22yearsinaRussianprison,fortwoRussianservicemen
convictedof"terrorism"inaKievcourtthisweek.

Butwhiletheapparentagreementoffersararepointoflightinthe
frayedrelationshipbetweenthetwocountries,italsocouldreignite
thequestionofjusthowinvolvedRussiahasbeenandcontinuestobein
therestiveDonbassregionofUkraine.
UkrainianPresidentPetroPoroshenkoannouncedthatan"algorithm"had
beenagreedtofacilitatethepossibleexchangeofMs.Savchenko,which
couldhappeninthenextfewdays.Mr.PoroshenkoandRussianPresident
VladimirPutinheldareportedlyconstructivetelephoneconversation
abouttheprospectiveswap,amarkedreturntodiplomacyinbilateral
relationsaftertwoyearsofwar,bothhotandcold.

TherepatriationofSavchenko,whosedefianceofherRussiancaptorshas
earnedhernationalherostatusandaplaceintheUkrainianparliament,
wouldremoveoneofthemostprominentirritantsinthe"information
war"betweenthetwo.ItmayalsohelptoimproveRussia'simagein
Europe,wheresupportforrenewinganti-MoscowsanctionsinJulyis
alreadylookingshaky.Butitcomesastheconflictisonceagain
escalatingalongthebattlefrontineasternUkraine.

Savchenko,ahelicopterpilotwholefttheUkrainianArmytofightwith
apro-Kievvolunteerbattaliontwoyearsago,saysshewascapturedon
thebattlefieldbyrebelforcesandillegallytransportedtoRussia,
whereshewaschargedwiththemurderoftwoRussianjournalists.She
deniedthecharges,putupasteadyshowofdefianceinthecourtroom
andliterallylaughedwhenthejudgereadouthersentence.Shealso
launchedahungerstrike,whichshesuspendedonTuesdaywhenMr.
Poroshenkopersonallycalledandaskedhertodoso.

RussiaintheDonbass

ThecircumstancesaroundthetwoRussians,AlexanderAlexandrovand
YevgenyYerofeyev,whowerecapturedincombatineastUkrainelast
year,aremurkierthanthosearoundSavchenko.

UkrainianexpertsinsistthattheKremlin'swillingnesstonegotiatefor
themisproofthattheywereregularRussiantroops,partofalarge
invadingforcethattoreUkraineapartfollowingtheMaidanRevolution
inearly2014,evenasMoscowdeniedanydirectinvolvement.Thetwomen
initiallyadmittedtobeingoperativesoftheGRU,Russianmilitary
intelligence,butlaterretractedthoseconfessionsandsaidtheywere
justex-military"volunteers"withtheUkrainianrebels.

TheirreturntoRussiaundertheproposeddealwillprobablyreignite
thatvexingquestion.WhilethestandardUkrainiannarrativearguesthat
separatismintheeasternregionofDonbassfollowingtheMaidan
RevolutionwasentirelyMoscow-made,theactualextentofRussian
interventionhasprovenextremelydifficulttopindown.AndRussian
expertsarguethatthecaseofMr.AlexandrovandMr.Yerofeyevisno
smokinggun.

"Ofcoursethereisnowaythatragtagrebelarmycouldhavedefeated
theUkrainianforcesinthosedecisivebattlesaroundDonetskin2014
andearly2015withoutRussianhelp,"saysSergeiStrokan,international
affairscolumnistfortheMoscowdailyKommersant."ButtheRussianside
hasdevelopedthislegalformula,whichsaysthatlotsofRussian
'volunteers'crossedovertohelptherebels,butnoregularRussian
troops."

"Youmaysayit'sadistinctionwithoutadifference,butitlets
Russianauthoritiesoffthehook,"saysMr.Strokan."Arguingoverit
hasalreadyproventobeadeadend."

Politicalwins

Bothcaseshaveprovenproblematicintheirexecution.TheSavchenko
trialwasperceivedaroundtheworldaspoliticallymotivated,andhuman
rightsexpertssayitwasriddledwithirregularities.Thetrialof
AlexandrovandYerofeyevwasmarredbythegrislyabductionandmurder
ofAlexandrov'slawyer,presumablybyUkrainianultra-nationalists.

Assuch,theresolutionsaswapwouldbringwilllikelybenefitboth
sides-atleastpolitically.

"PutinshouldbegladtogetridofSavchenko,becausehercase
attractedtoomuchattentionandshebecameasymbolofUkrainian
resistance,"saysViktorNebozhenko,directoroftheindependent
UkrainianBarometersociologicalagencyinKiev."Bothpresidentswill
gainabigPRvictoryfromthis.InRussiatheywilllaunchabig
campaigndeclaring'weneverleaveourpeoplebehind,'andthesame
thingwillhappenhere[inUkraine].Ontheeasternfront,however,it
won'tchangeathing.Peoplewillgoondyingeveryday."
[returntoContents]<#n0>

#28
BostonGlobe
April20,2016
PopeFrancis,askmoreforUkraine
ByLevGolinkin
LevGolinkinistheauthorof"ABackpack,aBear,andEightCratesof
Vodka."

ThefewjournalistswhostillreportfromeasternUkraineinvariably
describeitasaninvisiblecatastrophe.It'sanaptoxymoron.First,a
regionthesizeofConnecticut,rightinthemiddleofEurope,was
turnedintoanapocalypticwastelandwhere3millionciviliansremain
cut-offfrombasicnecessities.Then,itwaspromptlyforgotten.

PopeFrancisdecidedtochangematters.OnApril3,thepontiffissueda
rareandfar-rangingcall,earmarkingmoneycollectedbyEuropean
churchesduringtheApril24Sundayservicesforhumanitarianaidfor
victimsofabrutalandongoingconflict.Yet,whiletheattentionis
direlyneeded,it'snotenough.CatholicsinNorthAmerica-reallyall
Americans-mustalsobecalledupontohelp.

Twoyearsagothismonth,warbrokeoutbetweenKievandRussian-backed
rebelsintheDonbassminingregionofeasternUkraine.Shortly
thereafter,Donbass'chiefexportwentfromcoaltowarcrimes.
Ukraine'sindustrialheartlandwastransformedintoadevelopingnation.

Theconditionsareunfathomable.Inthe21stcentury,thereare
outbreaksoftuberculosisandHIVbecauseKievbattalionsblocked
medicalsuppliesfromreachingtherebel-heldareaswhiletherebels
expelledDoctorsWithoutBordersonchargesofbeingspies.Inthe
middleofEurope,elementaryschoolsnowhaveclassesonrecognizing
explosives.NeithertherebelsnorKievforcesbotheredmarking
minefields,andchildrenkeepgettingblownapart.Indiscriminate
shellingofcivilianareasdestroyedinfrastructurefrompowerplantsto
watertreatmentfacilities,leavinghundredsofthousandswithout
drinkablewaterandelectricity.TheWorldFoodProgramjustadded
Ukraine-oncethebreadbasketofEurope-toitslistofcountriesin
desperateneedoffood.UkraineistheonlyEuropeannationonalist
dominatedbytheMiddleEastandsub-SaharanAfrica.

HighlyconservativeUnitedNationsestimatesplacethewar'stollat
morethan10,000casualties2millionrefugeesandinternally-displaced
personsandof3millionpeoplewhoremainintheconflictarea,nearly
halfareconsidered"highlyvulnerableandinneedofassistance."Many
areelderlyorthepoorwhohavenomeanstoflee.

Ordinarily,theeyesoftheWestwouldberivetedonUkraine,justas
theywereontheatrocitiesofYugoslaviainthe1990s.Butshortly
afterthewarbegan,afogofpropagandadescendedonDonbass,creating
achaosthatbecameimpenetrablefortheglobalmedia.

Kievofficiallydesignatedtheconflictan"anti-terroristoperation,"
orATO,andDonbassastheATOzone.MoscowpropagandapaintsallKiev
supportersas"neo-Nazis."Thetermseffectivelydehumanizedthe3
millioncivilianstrappedintheconflictzone:Neitherterroristsnor
neo-Nazisdeservemercy.

Accusationsandcounter-accusationsswirlingaroundUkrainetransformed
itfromaslaughteryardintoaquestionof"spheresofinfluence"
betweenRussiaandNATOora"standoff"betweenKievandMoscow.The
rareheadlinesoutofUkrainerecentlyfocusonwhichsideisviolating
thelatestcease-fireattempt,orthepoliticalsquabblesinKiev-not
theciviliansforwhomabduction,torture,landmines,starvation,and
murderarenowapartoflife.ItisasifMassachusettsandNewYork
engagedinascorched-earthwar,andnoonebotherstomentionthe
peopleofConnecticutcaughtin-between.

PopeFrancisaddressedthesituationintypicalJesuitfashion-he
quicklyslashedthroughthepolemicsofspheresandstandoffs,Nazisand
terrorists,andcalledonthefaithfultoaidthevictims.

Excepthecalledonthewrongcontinent.

ThepapalcollectionforUkraineextendstochurchesinEurope,butnot
NorthAmerica.Undernormalcircumstancesthiswouldmakesense,since
Europeanshaveageographicinterestinaidingtheirneighbors.The
problemtodayisthatCatholicstrongholdslikeItaly,France,and
AustriaarealreadystrainedtothebreakingpointbecauseoftheSyrian
migrantcrisis.It'shardtoexpectWesternEuropeanstofocuson
sufferinginUkrainewhentheyareconsumedbythebiggestinfluxof
humanitysinceWorldWarIIunfoldingintheirowncities.

TheparishesbestpoisedtocontributetotheVatican'sappealareon
thissideoftheAtlantic.Americanbishopshaveauniqueopportunityto
standinsolidaritywithEurope.AseparateUScollectionforUkraine
wouldallowBoston,Chicago,NewYork,andLosAngelestojoinPope
Francis'historicmissioncenteredonthatsacredtenetofbothreligion
andAmericandemocracy-protectingtheinnocent.Itwouldaidmillions
whoareneitherterroristsnorneo-Nazis,butcivilianswhoseonlysin
wasthemisfortuneoflivinginwhathasbecomeUkraine'smisery.
[returntoContents]<#n0>

#29
Sputnik
April21,2016
Kremlin:RussiatoBeHappyIfUkraine'sAssociationWithEUYieldsSuccess

MOSCOW(Sputnik)-RussiawouldbehappyiftheEUAssociationAgreement
withUkraineyieldedanysortofsuccessforKiev,Kremlinspokesman
DmitryPeskovsaidThursday.

"OfcourseRussiaisinterestedthatitsneighborsarepredictable,
economicallyindependent,and,Iwouldsay,stableandflourishing.If
thisagreementhelpsUkrainetoreachsomesortofparameterinreaching
itsgoals,thenobviouslywewouldonlybehappy,"Peskovtoldjournalists.

However,iftheUkraine-EUAssociationAgreementhasnegativeeffectson
Russia,Moscowwilltakenecessarystepstobalancethesituation,
Peskovsaid.

"ThisisthetopicthatIthinkconcernstheEuropeanUnionandUkraine
toagreaterextent.Intheeconomicpart,asitcouldaffect
Russian-UkrainianrelationsandRussia'seconomicrelations,wewill,of
course,thoroughlymonitorpossiblenegativeimplications.Ifsuch
effectsappear,thenwewill,ofcourse,takethenecessarymeasuresof
balancingnature,"Peskovtoldreporters,speakingaboutthepossible
impactofEU-UkraineassociationontheirrelationswithRussia.

In2014,KievandBrusselssignedanagreementaimedatUkraine's
politicalassociationandeconomicintegrationintothebloc.The
agreementseekstocreateafreetradezonebetweenUkraineandthe28
EUmemberstates.

TheagreementhastoberatifiedbyalltheEUmemberstates.Bythe
momentithasbeenratifiedby27countriesexceptNetherlands.Dutch
citizensvotedagainstthedealattheadvisoryreferendum,however
country'slawmakersvotedagainstrefusingtoratifytheagreement.
[returntoContents]<#n0>

#30
http://gordonhahn.com
April19,2016
The20April2014EasterAttack:AgainonRightSectorandtheMakingof
theUkrainianCivilWar
ByGordonM.Hahn

Theanti-MaidantakeoversofOGAsandothergovernmentbuildingsacross
DonetskandspreadingtoLuhanskfromApril12-14cameafterKievhad
beendiscussingpubliclyformorethanaweekitsintenttocarryoutan
'anti-terrorist'operationagainstwhatthenweremereprotestersin
restlessDonbass.Moreover,theanti-MaidantakeoversinMarchandearly
Apriltherewereinresponseto,andidenticalwiththepro-Maidan
takeoversofKievgovernmentbuildingsandregionalOGAsinwinter.The
Donbass'seventswereescalatinginresponsetoKiev'sactions.By
sundownon14April2014,actingUkrainianpresidentOleksandr
Turchynov'sdeadlineof6pmforthoseoccupyinggovernmentbuildingsin
theeasttoleavehadexpired.Donetsk'santi-Maidanprotestersand
armedrebelshadtakencontrolofsomegovernmentbuildingsinmany
citiesacrosstheoblast,includingArtemevsk,Druzhkivka(Druzhkovka),
Horlivka(Gorlovka),Kramatorsk,Makiivka(Makievka),Mariupol',
Slovyansk(Slavyansk),Yenakiieve(Yenakieve),andZhdanivka
(Zhdanovka).Bytheeveningofthe14thofAprilthefirstcasualtiesof
theATO-oneSBUofficerkilledandfivewoundedinSlavyansk-hadbeen
registeredwhenSBUspecialforcesattemptedtore-takesecurity
buildings.[1]ThousandsofUkrainianarmytroopsandlargely
neofascist-manned'volunteerbattalions'armedwithtanksandheavy
artilleryandsupportedbyairpowerwereonthemarcheast.Bythetime
Donbassiansawokeonthemorningofthe15th,Kiev's'anti-terroroist'
operation(ATO)wasalreadyinaction.Thatdayaforceof500Ukrainian
soldiers,20APCs,and2helicoptersdescendedonSlavyansk.[2]
Ukraine'scivilwarhadbegun.Certainly,MaidanKiev'scivilwaror
'ATO'couldnothavebeenareactiontoaRussianinvasionor
intervention.EventheSBUstatedthattheinfamousandover-credited
Girkin-StrelkovhadonlyarrivedinDonbassonthe12th.Evenasa
responsetotheDonbassrebels'firstviolenceinSlavyanskonthe14th,
Kievwasoverreactingtoevents.Theoverreactionwasdrivennotonlyby
theMaidan'sneofascistelement'sfervorforwar.Itwasalsodrivenby
fearofwhatRussianPresidentVladimirPutinmightbeplanningin
DonbassgivenhisactionsinCrimea.Uncertaintyisnotarecipefor
stability.

YettherewasonelastchancetoavertwarinDonbass.Itwouldbe
scuttledbythenewregime'sshocktroops-theneo-fascistRightSector
(RS)ledbyDmitroYarosh.

GenevaFailure

Withthesituationspinningoutofcontrolontheground,actorsonthe
internationallevelintervenedagain.Moscowhadwarnedthatanyattack
onDonbassianswouldputtalkswithWashingtonandBrusselsscheduled
forGenevalaterthenextweekatrisk.[3]OnApril16-17thetop
foreignaffairsofficialsoftheU.S.,EU,Ukraine,andRussiametin
Genevainalastditch,belatedefforttoavoidcivilwarinUkraine.
UnlikethetalksinKievthatproducedtheFebruary21stagreementand
includedthepro-Maidanoppositionpartyleaders,neithertheDonbass
rebelsnoranyrepresentativesfromDonbasstookpartinGeneva.On
April17ththesidessignedavagueceasefireagreement,a"joint
statement,"consistingofaspirationaldeclarationsforaceasefire,
withdrawalfrombuildings,andtheinitiationofa"nationaldialogue"
onanewconstitutionratherthanconcretestepsforimplementationand
support.Ifnotfortheletterhead,theentiredocumentwouldhavefit
easilyononepage.Itreadinfull:

"TheGenevameetingonthesituationinUkraineagreedoninitial
concretestepstode-escalatetensionsandrestoresecurityforall
citizens.Allsidesmustrefrainfromanyviolence,intimidationor
provocativeactions.Theparticipantsstronglycondemnedandrejected
allexpressionsofextremism,racismandreligiousintolerance,
includinganti-Semitism.Allillegalarmedgroupsmustbedisarmedall
illegallyseizedbuildingsmustbereturnedtolegitimateownersall
illegallyoccupiedstreets,squaresandotherpublicplacesinUkrainian
citiesandtownsmustbevacated.Amnestywillbegrantedtoprotesters
andtothosewhohaveleftbuildingsandotherpublicplacesand
surrenderedweapons,withtheexceptionofthosefoundguiltyofcapital
crimes.ItwasagreedthattheO.S.C.E.SpecialMonitoringMission
shouldplayaleadingroleinassistingUkrainianauthoritiesandlocal
communitiesintheimmediateimplementationofthesede-escalation
measureswherevertheyareneededmost,beginninginthecomingdays.
TheU.S.,E.U.andRussiacommittosupportthismission,includingby
providingmonitors.Theannouncedconstitutionalprocesswillbe
inclusive,transparentandaccountable.Itwillincludetheimmediate
establishmentofabroadnationaldialogue,withoutreachtoallof
Ukraine'sregionsandpoliticalconstituencies,andallowforthe
considerationofpubliccommentsandproposedamendments.The
participantsunderlinedtheimportanceofeconomicandfinancial
stabilityinUkraineandwouldbereadytodiscussadditionalsupportas
theabovestepsareimplemented."[4]

AtapressconferenceafterthesigningUSSecretaryofStateKerryput
theonusforcompliancewiththeagreementbytheDNRfullyonthe
Russianside,muchasheandPresidentObamahadwiththeFebruary21st
agreement:"Responsibility(forsuccessfulimplementation)willliewith
thosewhohaveorganisedtheirpresence,providedthemwiththeweapons,
puttheuniformsonthem,supportedthem,andhavebeenengagedinthe
processofguidingthemoverthecourseofthisoperation."[5]Butas
notedabove,therebelforceswereactingspontaneously,still
unorganized,andpoorlyarmedandequipped.Thiscouldnotbesaidfor
MaidanKiev.

OrthodoxEasterCeasefireandtheRSAttackatSlavyansk

TheonepositivethatcameoutoftheagreementwasanEasterceasefire,
butitwasimmediatelyunderminedbyafamiliarculprit.Fromthe
outset,theneofascistsofYarosh'sRSandOlehTyahnybok'sSvoboda
Party(SP)weredeterminedtowagewaragainsttheDonbass.Towardsthis
end,ontheverydaytheceasefireagreementwassigned,aRSmilitant
ofthevolunteerbattalionsjustmovingintoDonbassfromthewest
detonatedagrenadeinahazyincidentkillinghimselfandtwoDonbass
rebelswhoallegedlyattackedhimatarebelcheckpointnear
Slavyansk.[6]Dayslater,onApril20th,EasterSunday,RSmilitants
appeartohavecarriedoutacoordinatedattackonanotherSlavyansk
checkpoint,scuttlingtheceasefire.TheattackleftthreeSlavyansk
rebelsdeadandfourwoundedandoneRSfighterkilledandtwowounded.

Ukraine'sSBUintelliegenceservice,however,accusedMoscowandallied
"saboteurs"ofcarryingouta"cynicalprovocation,"while
simultaneouslydenyingthattherewereanyUkrainianorganizationsof
anykindinthearea:"Ithasbeenestablishedthatonthatnightin
Slavyansktherewasnotoneorganizationbesidessaboteursand
representativesofthecriminalswhotheGRUofthegeneralStaffofthe
ArmedForcesoftheRussianFederationsupportandarm.Thiswas
establishedbyoperationalinvestigativeactivityatthesiteby
Ukraine'slawenforcementagencies."[7]TheNationalSecurityand
DefenseCouncil'sdeputysecretaryViktoriyaSumarbrushedoffonher
FacebookpageanyRSinvolvementas"Russianpropaganda":"Reportsby
Russianjournalistsaboutashootoutbetweensupposedlythe'Right
Sector'and'self-defenders'beinginSlavyanskbasedonsome'business
cardsofYarosh'and'unknownweapons'andthenumberofkilledwhich
growsbythehourandsomeother'details',evidenceofwhichnoonehas
seen,isatypicalformofRussianpropagandawhichnotonlymany
Russianbutalsomanyotherforeignmassmediacirculatetoday."Sumar
addedthattheeventwasdesginedbyMoscowtogivetheappearanceofa
civilwarandjustifyaRussianinvasionofUkraine.[8]

TheMaidanregime'ssilovikiappearedtobecoordinatingthe
disinformationwiththeneofacists,sinceRSspokesmanArtemSkoropadsky
alsoissuedadenial,sayingSlavyanskwasa"blasphemousprovocation
fromRussia:blasphemousbecauseittookplaceonaholynightfor
Christians,onEasternight.ThiswasclearlycarriedoutbyRussian
specialforces."[9]InanofficialstatementonitsVKontakepage,RS
againdeniedhaving"anyrelationship"tothe"operation"inSlavyansk,
adding:"AnyattempttotietheseactionswithRightSectorhaveonly
onegoal-toprovokefearofRSactivistsamongtheinhabitantsof
EasternUkraine."Theparty,thestatementclaimed,had"runintoan
unprecedentedinformationattacksupportedbyfalsifications,intrigues,
andmanipulationsofthefactsbyRussianmassmediacontrolledbythe
Kremlin."Atthesametime,RSacknowledgedthatits'activists'were
"nowsubordinatedtothestate'sorgansofcoercion"(silovieorgany)
andthustheiractionswerewithinthelegallimits.[10]Inthisview,
theATOdeclaredbyUkraine'sgovernmentandtobecarriedoutbyits
silovikiprovideda'legal'frameworkforRStocarryoutthe
'operation'itsupposedlyhadnotcarriedout.

TheRussianForeignMinistryexpressedoutrageoverthekillingof
"innocent,peacefulcitizens,"regardeditasabreachoftheEaster
ceasefire,andblamedRightSector,addingthattheincident"testifies
toalackofdesireonthepartoftheauthoritiesinKievtoreinin
anddisarmnationalistsandextremists."[11]Ukraine'sforeignministry
inturnreproachedRussiaforrushingtojudgmentandfailingtofulfiil
itsobligationsundertheGenevadeal:"TheRussiansidemustbe
remindedabouttheirobligationsundertheGenevaagreementtobringall
necessaryinfluencetobearonseparatiststoclearillegallyheld
buildings,unblockroads,laydownarmsandpreventanybloodshed."[12]

YetdespitealltheofficialdenialsfromMaidanKievandtheRS,ayear
laterinaBBCinterview,Yaroshacknowledgedhetookpartincombaton
thatdayinSlavyansk.HealsoclaimedthatatthistimeRSalreadyhad
anunlikely10,000fightersinthevolunteerbattalionsofitsVolunteer
UkrainianCorps(DobrovolchiyUkrainskiyKorpus)orDUK.[13]Later,an
RS-affiliatedwebsiteincludedonitslistofheroicmemberskilled
duringtheATO,MikhailoStanislavenko,notinghewaskilledin
Slavyanskon20April2014.[14]Onthatdaytherewasonlyoneviolent
incidentinSlavyansk.

ForensicsevidencelateremergedfurtherconfirmingRSmilitants'
involvementintheincident.Forexample,two2016Ukrainiancourt
decisionsshowthatprosecutors'investigationshaddeterminedthattwo
RSfighterswerewoundedintheEasterattackandthattheyhadusedthe
verysamefirearmsusedonMaidanon18February2014tokilltwoMVD
troopsandwoundthreemore.Moreover,aneyewitnessreportedthatone
oftheSlavyanskseparatistskilledatthecheckpointwasshotbya
sniperand,forensicshasshownthesniperusedthesamekindof
expanding7.62mmcaliberbullets,whichwererecoveredatthesiteof
theattackatthecheckpoint,thatwereusedonMaidanandwiththesame
kindofAKMandhuntingcarbinesbasedontheKalashnikovassaultrifles
usedonMaidan.Also,Yarosh'sbusinesscard,alistwithnamesof
severalotherRSleaders,andanRSbattalion'sSecurityService
medallionnumber20wereseizedbyseparatistsduringthefight.Yetthe
involvementofRSintheattackwasimmediatelydeniednotjustbythe
RSbutbytheSBU,theMVD,theNationalSecurityandDefenseCouncil,
andpro-Maidanmedia,claimingagainwithoutanyevidencethatthe
Yaroshbusinesscardandotherevidencewerefabrications.[15]

Thus,severalfactssuggestthattheRSandultra-nationalistelements
intheSBUandtheNationalSecurityandDefenseCouncil,suchasits
chiefParubiy,stoodbehindtheEasterattack.First,thecouncil,the
SBUandotherstateorgansissuedwhatwasthenstillatleast
unverifiableanditappearsknowntobefalseinformationindesignating
theattackaRussianprovocationanddenyingRS'sinvolvement
involvementlateracknowledgedbytheRSitselfanddocumentedincourt
documents.ThisisconsistentwiththeMaidanUkraine'spracticeof
excessiveandnon-crediblestrategiccommunicationsanddisinformation,
usuallyblamingMoscow,suchaswasthecaseinthesnipers'massacre
andeventstocomeinOdessainMay.Second,theinvolvementofYarosh
andtheRSelementssuggestsaMaidan-styleprovocation,giventhe
historyoftheMaidansnipers'massacreandeventstocomeinOdessa.
Third,casualtiesweregreaterontherebelside,suggestingtheywere
attackedfirstbyYaroshandhisRSfighters.Indeed,Yaroshinthe
interviewayearlatermentionedabovedoesnotrefertotheclashasa
rebelorRussianattackorprovocation.WithKiev'sattackatSlavyansk,
theceasefireended.Ukraine'scivilwarwasabouttobegininearnest.
Luhansk:FromOblasttoInsurgency

TheRS'sApril20thEasterattackhadanimmediateeffectinLuhansk,
ignitingtheinsurgentflamethathadspreadinDonetsktoitsDonbass
neighbor.ThosewhoinearlyAprilstormedLuhansk'sgovernment
buildingsandothersremainedonthesquareneartheOGAforweeks,and
Kievundertooknoattempttonegotiatewiththem.Genevaofferedhope,
butnodialoguebeganandinsteadtheEasterattackescalatedthelevel
ofviolence,withthefirstcombatcasualtiesinDonbass.OnApril21st,
theprotestersorganizedaseriesofvechesacrosstheregiontoelect
delegatestoaregion-widevecheheldinLuhanskcitythesamedayand
attendedbyseveralthousand,chanting:"Russia!Referendum!"Some
protestersappearedtosupportUkraine'sfederalizationasapathto
regionalautonomywithinUkraine,whileotherssupportedUkraine's
reunificationwiththeRussianFederation.TheLuhanskvechedeclared
theLuhanskPeople'sRepublic(LNR)andtworeferenda.Onereferendum
wasscheduledforMay11thtodeterminewhethertheregionshouldseek
autonomousstatuswithinUkraine.Thesecond,scheduledforMay18th
wouldtodeterminewhethertheLNRshoulddeclareindependencefrom
UkraineorjointheRussianFederationshouldautonomywithinUkrainebe
rejectedonthe11th.[16]TheProsecutorGeneral'sOffice(GPO)deemed
therallies'separatist'innature:"Thedemonstrators'speeches,
insigniaandfederalizationslogans,aswellascallstoholdalocal
referendum,areexplicitlyseparatist.Theregionalprosecutor'soffice
seestheunrestintheLuhanskregionasillegalanditentered
informationonthemintothedatabaseofpre-trialinquiriestobe
controlledbytheLuhanskregionalprosecutor'soffice."[17]Aweek
latertheLNRwasofficiallydeclared,anditsleadersdemandedthat
KievrecognizetheauthorityoftheBolotovasthenewgovernor,provide
amnestytoallprotesters,codifyRussiaasastatelanguage,andholda
referendumonLuhansk'sstatusandtheMaidangovernmentleadershipdid
notmeetthesedemandsby14:00onApril29th,theywouldjoinwiththe
DNRinaninsurgencyagainsttheATO.[18]Kievneverreactedotherthan
todivertsomeATOforcestoLuhansk.Therewasnoturningback.RShad
ensuredtherewouldbeaDonbasscivilwar.

Footnotes
[1]"Mesyatsokkupatsii.Slavyansk"and"UkraineArmyLaunches
'Anti-Terror'Operation,"SkyNews,14April2014,
http://news.sky.com/story/1241376/ukraine-army-launches-anti-terror-operation.
[2]"Mesyatsokkupatsii.Slavyansk."
[3]"UkraineArmyLaunches'Anti-Terror'Operation."
[4]"GenevaStatementonUkraine,"EUExternalActionService,17April
2014,http://www.eeas.europa.eu/statements/docs/2014/140417_01_en.pdf.
[5]JulianBorgerandAlecLuhn,"Ukrainecrisis:Genevatalksagreement
ondefusingconflict,"TheGuardian,17April2014,
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/17/ukraine-crisis-agreement-us-russia-eu.
[6]YekaterinaStulen',"Boets'Pravogosektora'vzorvalsebyaidvukh
'zelenikhchelovechkov,"VestiUkraina,17April2014,
http://vesti-ukr.com/donbass/48168-boec-pravogo-sektora-vzorval-sebja-i-dvuh-zelenyh-chelovechkov.
[7]SeetheSBUstatementat"ShchodozbroinoiprovokatsiiuPaskhal'nu
nichbilyam.Slov'yansk,"SluzhbabezopekiUkrainy,20April2014,
http://www.sbu.gov.ua/sbu/control/uk/publish/article?art_id=124389&cat_id=39574.

Seealso"SBU:Separatistysrossiiskimydiversantamiinstsenirovali
napadenienablokpostSlavyanska,"Gordonua.com,20April2014,
http://gordonua.com/news/separatism/sbu-separatisty-s-rossiyskimi-diversantami-inscenirovali-vnesh
nee-napadenie-na-blokpost-slavyanska-19184.html.
[8]"VSNBOraskritikovalilzhivyiesoobshcheniyaRossiiskoipressyo
perestrelkevSlavyanske,"TSN.ru,20April2014,
http://ru.tsn.ua/politika/v-snbo-raskritikovali-lzhivye-soobscheniya-rossiyskoy-pressy-o-perestrel
ke-v-slavyanske-361755.html.
[9]AleksandrVasovicandAlissaDeCarbonnell,"Deadlygunattackin
easternUkraineshakesfragileGenevaaccord,"Reuters,20April2014,
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-idUSBREA3A1B520140420.
[10]"Pravyisectorotritsaetsvoyuprichastnost'kperestrelkev
Slavyanske,"Korrespondent,20April2014,
http://korrespondent.net/ukraine/politics/3352145-pravyi-sektor-otrytsaet-svoui-prychastnost-k-per
estrelke-v-slavianske.
[11]"Pravyisectorotritsaetsvoyuprichastnost'kperestrelkev
Slavyanske."
[12]VasovicandDeCarbonnell,"DeadlygunattackineasternUkraine
shakesfragileGenevaaccord."
[13]"DmitroYarosh:namsheKrimpovertati,"BBC(Ukrainian),11
February2015,
http://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/politics/2015/02/150211_yarosh_interview_vs.
[14]"DUK5-IOkremiiBatal'ion,"VKontakte,12October2014,
http://archive.is/4a5bMcitedinIvanKatchanovski,"January26at
2:43,"Facebook,26January2016,
http://www.facebook.com/ivan.katchanovski/posts/1165670110129540.
[15]"UkhvalaimenemUkraini-SpravaNo.757/42824/15-k""Ukhvala
imenemUkraini-SpravaNo.757/47700/15-k"and"VSlavyanskePravyi
sektoratakovalblokpost,pogiblitroezhitelei,"YouTube,8April2015,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9J3bp6Ml4agallcitedinKatchanovski,
"January26at2:43."
[16]"Luhanskprosecutorslaunchprobesintofederalizationsupport
rallies,"Interfax-Ukraine,21April2014,
http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/201534.htmland"VLuganske
separatistyreshiliprovestidvareferenduma,"Ukrainskayapravda,21
April2014,http://www.pravda.com.ua/rus/news/2014/04/21/7023176/.
[17]"Luhanskprosecutorslaunchprobesintofederalizationsupport
rallies."
[18]"LatestfromtheSpecialMonitoringMissiontoUkraine-basedon
informationreceivedupuntil28April2014,19:00(Kyivtime),"
OrganizationonSecurityandCooperationinEurope,28April2014,
http://www.osce.org/ukraine-smm/118153and"Federalizationsupportersin
Luhanskproclaimpeople'srepublic,"Tass,28April2014,
http://tass.ru/en/world/729768.
[returntoContents]<#n0>

Johnson'sRussiaList,6368CircleDrive,Chincoteague,VA23336
SafeUnsubscribemartin.dewhirst@gmail.com

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 From: MartinDewhirst<martin.dewhirst@googlemail.com>
Senttime: 04/24/201612:18:44PM
To: PeterReddaway<pbreddaway@gmail.com>Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: Fwd:2016-#76-Johnson'sRussiaList

DearPeter,
Iknowyouhaveotherpriorities,butIthinkyoushouldreaditem3,
preferablyusingthelinktothefullversion.PetrovgivesPutinone
moreyearbeforehe'soverthrown,atmosttwoyears.IreadPetrov
regularly,andhaven'tcomeacrossanythinglikethisfromhimbefore.I
don'tcompletelyagreewithhim,andIsticktomyoriginalbetthat
Putinwillstillbetherein2020,butthisisthefirsttimeI'vehad
seriousdoubtsthatI'llwin.Ofcourse,someadditionalWestern
sanctionswouldhelptoincreasethechancesthatI'lllose,butIdon't
thinkeitheryourPresidentortheEUiswillingtohelpyoutowinourbet.
Best,
Martin
copy:ro

--------ForwardedMessage--------
Subject:2016-#76-Johnson'sRussiaList
Date:Thu,21Apr201611:27:52-0400(EDT)
From:DavidJohnson
Reply-To:davidjohnson@starpower.net
To:martin.dewhirst@gmail.com

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21April2016
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*"Don'tbelieveeverythingyouthink"

Youseewhatyouexpecttosee

"Thebiggestcommunicationproblemiswedonotlistentounderstand.We
listentoreply."*

*Inthisissue*
TODAY<#LETTER.BLOCK4>
1.RFE/RL:BrianWhitmore,OnMyMind.<#LETTER.BLOCK5>
2.RFE/RL:BrianWhitmore,TheDailyVertical:TheKremlin'sSpin,
NATO'sReality.<#LETTER.BLOCK6>
3.EuropeanCouncilonForeignRelations:NikolayPetrov,Putin's
downfall:ThecomingcrisisoftheRussianregime.Thecurrenttrajectory
oftheRussianregimeisunstableandwithoutdramaticchangeitwill
crumblewithinthenextyear,accordingtoaleadingRussiaspecialist.
<#LETTER.BLOCK7>
4.Newsweek.com:PUTINISA'SMARTBUTTRULYEVILMAN,'SAYSMADELEINE
ALBRIGHT.<#LETTER.BLOCK8>
5.Euromaidanpress.com:MadeleineAlbrightandRussia's"usefulidiots"
<#LETTER.BLOCK9>
6.MoscowTimes:KirillRogov,Putin'sEconomist:WhyKudrinTappedto
WriteNewReformsPlan.<#LETTER.BLOCK10>
7.MoscowTimes:SamGreene,TheMasksComeOffbutRussianOfficials
HaveNothingLefttoSay.<#LETTER.BLOCK11>
8.Vedomosti:Russiansseeparliamentashaving"symbolic"significance
-pollsterchief.(AlekseyLevinson)<#LETTER.BLOCK12>
9.MoscowTimes:MoreThanHalfofRussiansWantNewSovietState-
Poll.<#LETTER.BLOCK13>
10.PaulGoble:Russians'ApproachtoPoliticsInconsistentand
Paradoxical,SociologistSays.<#LETTER.BLOCK14>
11.Politkom.ru:MostRussiansnotinterestedingettingtruepictureof
world-analysis.<#LETTER.BLOCK15>
12.www.opendemocracy.net:BadmaByurchiev,Russia'sregions:federalism
anditsdiscontents.CreatingtheappearanceofstabilityistheRussian
politicalelite'sprimarygoal.Yetcolonial-likeruleoverthe
country'sregions,combinedwithalackofcivicactivity,harmsthe
Kremlin'slegitimacyontheground.<#LETTER.BLOCK16>
13.TheNewYorkReviewofBooks:TimothySnyder,Trump'sPutinFantasy.
<#LETTER.BLOCK17>
14.DeutscheWelle:HowNigeriangirlsareforcedintoprostitutionin
Russia.<#LETTER.BLOCK18>
15.TheGuardian(UK):Russia's'coldturkey'approachhighlightsglobal
divideoverdrugtreatmentatUN.Russianrepresentativesuggests
methadoneandheroinarethe'samenarcoticdrug'asoutsideexperts
condemncountry'stakeontreatment:'They'retheworldleaderin
denyingthescience'<#LETTER.BLOCK19>
16.RFE/RL:BarredFromHundredsOfOccupationsInRussia,AFewWomen
FightBack.<#LETTER.BLOCK20>
17.Time.com:WhyaWininaDutchCourtIsMakingVladimirPutinSo
Happy.AcourtintheHaguehasquasheda$50billionjudgmentagainst
theRussianstate.ButPresidentPutin'senemiesfromtheYukosaffair
aren'tgivingupanytimesoon.<#LETTER.BLOCK21>
18.www.foreignaffairs.com:GregoryFeifer,IncorruptiblePutin.Whythe
PanamaAllegationsWon'tStick.<#LETTER.BLOCK22>
19.KennanInstitute:MaximTrudolyubov,HardWorkvs.Magic.
<#LETTER.BLOCK23>
20.www.foreigpolicy.com:SitRep:Exclusive:PentagonSaysRussiaCan
FightinUkraineandSyriaAnotherTwoYears.<#LETTER.BLOCK24>
21.NewYorkTimes:RussiaBolstersItsSubmarineFleet,andTensions
WithU.S.Rise.<#LETTER.BLOCK25>
22.WallStreetJournal:JoshuaYaffa,Russia'sWilyMenandWomen.
Russiansholdviewsthatseemimpossibletoreconcile.Studentsata
reputableschoolofferacuriousmixofheroes:StalinandSteveJobs.
(rePUTINCOUNTRYbyAnneGarrels)<#LETTER.BLOCK26>
23.BulletinoftheAtomicScientists:InterviewwithFormerUS
ambassadortoRussiaMichaelMcFaul.<#LETTER.BLOCK27>
24.TheAmericanInterest:LiliaShevtsova,HOWTHEWESTMISJUDGED
RUSSIAPART13.TheKremlin'sTriadastheMeansofSurvival.TheWest
needstounderstandthattheRussianSystemiswillingtofightforits
survival,andthatthisfightcouldtakemanydifferentforms.
<#LETTER.BLOCK28>
25.RussiaBeyondtheHeadlines:Atacrossroads:Theanxietiesofa
globalizedworld.InanRBTHexclusive,formerSovietleaderMikhail
Gorbachevwritesabouttheinternationalcrisisofleadershipandthe
challengesfacingpoliticiansaroundtheworldinatimeofmoral
uncertaintyandlackofunityandvisionforthefuture.<#LETTER.BLOCK29>
26.Irrussianality:PaulRobinson,LEGALBLOWBACK.<#LETTER.BLOCK30>
27.ChristianScienceMonitor:FredWeir,Revivalofdiplomacy?Ukraine,
Russiamakeprogressonprisonerswap.<#LETTER.BLOCK31>
28.BostonGlobe:LevGolinkin,PopeFrancis,askmoreforUkraine.
<#LETTER.BLOCK32>
29.Sputnik:Kremlin:RussiatoBeHappyIfUkraine'sAssociationWith
EUYieldsSuccess.<#LETTER.BLOCK33>
30.http://gordonhahn.com:GordonHahn,The20April2014Easter
Attack:AgainonRightSectorandtheMakingoftheUkrainianCivilWar.
<#LETTER.BLOCK34>

#1
RFE/RL
April21,2016
OnMyMind
ByBrianWhitmore

YouhavetowonderwhatdrivespeoplelikeAlekseiKudrinandElla
Pamfilova.Bothwereinthenewsthisweek.Kudrinacceptedanofferto
chairtheKremlin'stopeconomicsthinktank,theCenterforStrategic
Reform,andcalledforafundamentalrestructuringofRussia'seconomy
andpoliticalsystem.AndPamfilova,whowasrecentlyappointedheadof
theElectionCommission,raisedeyebrowsbycancelingelectionsinthe
MoscowsuburbofBarvikhaafterfouroppositioncandidatescomplainedof
fraud.PamfilovasaysshewillresignifthereisfraudinSeptember's
electionstotheStateDuma.Callmecynical(althoughIdon'tthinkI
am),butIjustdon'tthinkthekindofeconomicreformsKudrinis
proposingarepossibleunderthecurrentregime.Atbest,he'llbe
allowedtotinkeronthemargins.Andcallmecynicalagain(andagain,
Idon'tthinkIam),butIdon'texpectSeptember'selectiontobe
clean.RegimeliberalslikeKudrinandPamfilovaremainconvincedthat
thePutinregimecanbereformedandchangedfromwithin.Itcan't.
Becausereformingthisregimewouldmeanunderminingitscorrupt
foundations,whichwouldleadtoitsfall.AndthisisnotwhatPutin
hasinmind.
[returntoContents]<#n0>

#2
RFE/RL
April20,2016
TheDailyVertical:TheKremlin'sSpin,NATO'sReality
ByBrianWhitmore

TheKremlinanditssurrogatesarespinningtoday'smeetingofthe
NATO-RussiaCouncilastheendofMoscow'sisolation.

InBrussels,itisviewedasatechnicalmeetingtoputsafeguardsin
placetopreventanaccidentalconflictfrombreakingoutamidrising
tensions.

TheKremlinsaysrevivingtheNATO-RussiaCouncilafternearlytwoyears
isproofthatachastenedWesthasrealizedtheerrorofitswaysandis
nowreadytoengageMoscow.

InWesterncapitals,themeetingislargelyviewedasanecessaryevil
andanopportunitytocalloutRussiafortheprovocativeactionsofits
warplanesininternationalairspace--andtheircontinuedviolationsof
NATOairspace.

TheKremlinispresentingtheresurrectionoftheNATO-RussiaCouncilas
asignthattheUkrainecrisishaschangedtherulesofinternational
politicsinMoscow'sfavor.

NATOofficialsseeitasanopportunitytoreprimandRussiaforits
continuedeffortstodestabilizeUkraine,foritsfailuretoabideby
theMinskcease-fireagreement--andtoreinforcethemessagethatthis
behaviorhascostsandconsequences.
Today'smeetingamongNATOandRussianenvoyswillagainillustratethat
MoscowandtheWestliveincompletelydifferentcognitiverealities.

TheKremlin'spropagandamachinewillspinitasamajorvictoryfora
resurgentRussia.

Butopticsaside,itwillbenothingofthesort.
[returntoContents]<#n0>

#3
EuropeanCouncilonForeignRelations
www.ecfr.eu
April19,2016
Putin'sdownfall:ThecomingcrisisoftheRussianregime
ByNikolayPetrov
NikolayPetrovisavisitingfellowattheEuropeanCouncilonForeign
Relations.HewaschairoftheCarnegieMoscowCenter'sSocietyand
RegionsProgram.HeworkedintheInstituteofGeographyattheRussian
AcademyofSciencesfrom1982to2006.Heservedaschieforganiserof
theAnalysisandForecastDivisionintheSupremeSoviet(1991-1992),
wasanadviserandanalystfortheRussianPresidentialAdministration
(1994-1995),andascholarattheKennanInstituteforAdvancedRussian
Studies(1993-1994)andtheInternationalFoundationforElectoral
Systems(1994).From1996to2000,PetrovworkedattheCarnegieMoscow
Centerasaseniorconsultantandscholar-in-residence.Petrovearned
hisPh.D.fromMoscowStateUniversity.MoscowTimescolumnist.
[Fulltexthere
http://www.ecfr.eu/publications/summary/putins_downfall_the_coming_crisis_of_the_russian_regime700
6

ThecurrenttrajectoryoftheRussianregimeisunstableandwithout
dramaticchangeitwillcrumblewithinthenextyear,accordingtoa
leadingRussiaspecialist.

"Putin'sdownfall:ThecomingcrisisoftheRussianregime"byNikolay
PetrovarguesthatRussia'spoliticalregimeisunsustainableandlacks
capacitytoreforminthefaceofeconomicturmoil.Hearguesthatthe
regimehaslittleroomformanoeuvre,asexcessivecentralisationmakes
thesystemunstableandinefficient.Followingpreviousdomestic
dissent,VladimirPutincentralisedallpowerinthepresidencyand
weakenedRussianpoliticalandstateinstitutionsintheprocess.Now,
theregimeneedstokeepdeliveringmilitaryvictoriesorfacealossof
support.

PetrovassertsthattheRussianregimehasonlytwowaysoutofits
comingcrisis,bothofwhichhavelimitations.Thefirstistoreconcile
withtheWestandsoimproveitsfinances,byreininginanti-Western
rhetoricandappointingprominentreformerstokeypositionsinthe
government.Petrovbelievesthisisunlikelygiventhedeeplyentrenched
hostilitybetweenRussiaandtheWest.

Thesecondwayout,accordingtoPetrov,istochangeleader.WithPutin
havingstakedhispoliticalpoweronthelegitimacyofmilitaryvictory,
thesystemwillbreakdownwhenRussiastopswinning.Thealternativeis
anewleaderwithadifferent-perhapsanelectoral-mandate.However,
thisoptiontooisfraughtwithdangers.Withnoclear'heir',the
current,highlycentralisedandhighlypersonalised,systemwouldneed
toberebuilt.

Thealternativetotheseexitstrategiesisariskycollapse.
UncontrolledregimechangewouldleaveRussiawithoutvisibleleadersor
effectivestateinstitutions.Inthisscenario,powercouldbeassumed
byacoalitionofcorporations,redistributedamongvariousbodies,
includinggovernmentagencies,largecompanies,andevencertain
regions,suchasTatarstanandChechnya.

Summary
-Russia'spoliticalregimeisunsustainable.Ithasnocapacityto
reform,andfacesgrowingeconomicwoes,crumblinginfrastructure,and
warringelites.

-Afterwidespreadprotestsandebbingofsupport,thegovernmentbegan
in2014tobaseitslegitimacyonwinningwars.Putincentralisedall
powerinthepresidency,suppressingdissentandweakeninginstitutions
intheprocess.

-Now,theregimeneedstokeepdeliveringmilitaryvictoriesorfacea
lossofsupport.Excessivecentralisationmakesthesystemunstableand
inefficient,focusedonsurvivalratherthanstrategy.Assanctionsbite
andfundsrunshort,theelitesaregrowingimpatient,andthechanceof
conflictisrisinginregionssuchastheCaucasus.

-TherearetwowaysoutfortheRussianregime:improveitsfinancesby
reconcilingwiththeWest,orregainlegitimacybyreplacingthe
president.Eventhesewillonlybuyittime,andmaynotpreventatotal
collapse.

-ThereisnoclearheirtoPutin,andcollapsecouldbefollowedbythe
redistributionofpowertovariousgovernmentbodies,companies,and
regions,includingChechnya.

Russia'scurrentregimewillnotlastlong.Thetumultuouseventsin
Ukrainein2014reducedthecountry'spossibletrajectoriestoasingle
one-apaththatwillquicklyleadtothecollapseofthePutin
governmentifthereisnoradicalchangeinitscourse.

BeforetheCrimea-Ukraineaffair,itlookedasthoughPresidentVladimir
Putin'spoliticalregimewasfairlystableandcouldlastforseveral
yearswithoutprofoundchange.However,therewasaqualitativeshiftin
theregime'scharacterafter2014.Now,itdrawsitslegitimacyfrom
militaryaction,ratherthanfromtheballotbox.Therootsofthis
shiftgobacktothepoliticalcrisisof2011-2012,whenmass
anti-governmentprotestsandpoorelectoralresultsfortherulingparty
showedthattheoldformofpoliticswascomingtoanend.

Today,theregimederivesitslegitimacynotfromthebottomup,through
elections,butfromthetopdown,byplacingthecountryonapermanent
warfooting.AlthoughPutinstayedinpower,hisrolechanged
fundamentally-now,heismorelikeatsarthanthechairofaboard.
Theregimehasmovedfromahybridsystemthatstillmaintainedthe
outwardtrappingsofademocracytoafull-scaleauthoritarianstate,
whiletheshiftingbalanceofpowerhasmadetheelitesmoredependent
onthepresident.

AlthoughPutin'spopularityskyrocketedaftertheannexationofCrimea,
hehasbeentrappedbyhischoices.Hisregimeisaddictedtomilitary
actionandnowneedsaseriesofever-strongerhitsofforeignconflict
inordertomaintainitslegitimacy.Thispositionisunsustainable,
givenshrinkingfinancialresources,thewaningpatienceofeliteswho
don'twanttoliveinamilitarycampforever,andRussia's
fast-deterioratingadministrativeandpoliticalsystems.Thecountryis
beingheldhostagebytheregimetheregimeisahostageofPutin,and
Putinisahostageofhisownactions,whichhavedrasticallynarrowed
hisrangeofoptions.

Givenallthis,Russia'scurrenttrajectoryisthatofaplaneina
tailspin.Therearethreepossibleoutcomes:

(A)Regimechange:Theplanecrashesintotheground,andthecurrent
Russianpoliticalregimeundergoesacompletecollapse,withbothleader
andinstitutionsremoved

(B)Exitstrategy1:Theplanepullsoutofthetailspin,withthepilot
stillinplace.ThiscouldinvolvereconciliationwiththeWest,ora
sharpincreaseintheoilprice
(C)Exitstrategy2:Thecrewselectsanewpilot,whopullstheplane
outofitstailspin.

Itisbynomeanscertainwhichofthesescenarioswillcometopass.
Theirrelativeprobabilitiesshiftaccordingtoeventsontheground,
andevenanattempttomaintainthestatusquowillaltertherangeof
possibleoutcomesinunpredictableways.Thispapersetsouttoassess
howlongtheRussianregimehasleft,settingoutthefivefactorsthat
havesentitintoitscurrenttailspin,beforeconsideringitspossible
exitstrategies,andwhattypeofregimemightcomenext.

Howlongcanitlast?

Putin'sregimecan'tlastforlonginitscurrentstate-eitherthe
planewillclimboutofthetailspin,oritwillcrash.Theconcrete
dangersfortheregimeincluderisingsocialtensionsduetocutsin
governmentspendingterroristattacksinresponsetoitsmilitary
actioninSyriaandthedilemma
ofeasternUkraine-whereitisunabletoescalate,forfearoftougher
sanctions,orretreat,forfearofbeingaccusedofbetrayingthe
nationalinterest.Underlyingallthisisthegeneralpolitical
instabilitythatcouldslideintochaosifsomethinghappenedtoPutin
himself,orifhisapproval
ratingswentintoasharpdecline.

Inaddition,thelikelihoodofanexplosionofconflictintheCaucasus
growsasfederalfundsshrink,becominginsufficienttoensurethe
loyaltyofethnicclanelites,andthustobuystabilityintheregion.
Russia'sageinginfrastructurecouldcauseatechnologicaldisasterat
anytime,andindeedthis
hashappenedseveraltimesintherecentpast.Theauthoritiesmaybe
abletodealwithindividualcrisesingovernmentinstitutionsifthey
strikeonebyone,butnotiftheytakeplaceinanavalanche,witheach
triggeringafurthercrisis.Thekeyissueistiming-howlongthe
regimecansurvivewithoutradicalchange.Predictionsvary:frommany
yearsofslowdecay,liketheRomanEmpire,toacompletetransformation
-imposedeitherfromaboveorfrombelow-bytheendof2016.

Intheviewofthisauthor,theregimehaslessthanayear:the
existentialthreatitfacesismadeupofseveraldynamics,eachof
which,takenalone,islikelytodestroytheregimeinlessthantwo
years.Whencombined,however,theyexacerbatetheturbulenceandmake
theregime'slifeexpectancyevenshorter.Byconsideringeachdynamic
separately,wecansystematicallyapproachthequestionofhowlongthe
regimehasleft....
[returntoContents]<#n0>

#4
Newsweek.com
April20,2016
PUTINISA'SMARTBUTTRULYEVILMAN,'SAYSMADELEINEALBRIGHT
BYDAMIENSHARKOV

FormerU.S.SecretaryofStateMadeleineAlbrighthasincurredthewrath
ofRussianPresidentVladimirPutin'salliesaftercallinghima"smart
buttrulyevilman."

InaninterviewwithAustriannewspaperDiePresse,Albrightdefended
theforeignpolicyofBillClinton'sadministration,inwhichshewas
SecretaryofStateduringClinton'sfirstterm.TheCzechRepublic,
PolandandHungarywerethefirstformerCommuniststatestojoinNATO
in1999,inwhatwouldbecomethefirststepofaneastwardexpansion
whichhasstronglyincensedMoscow.

"IamveryproudoftheNATOexpansion.Thenwemanagedtousethepower
ofWesternEuropeandhelptheBalkanstates,"Albrightsaid."The
UnitedStatessawitsroleasanindispensablenationwhichshoulddo
goodallovertheworld."

AlbrighttookalesspositiveviewofPutin,whomshemetduringavisit
totheKremlinin2000,shortlyafterhesucceededformerRussian
PresidentBorisYeltsin.Whenaskedwhatherlastingimpressionwasof
theyoungpresident,Albrightwascritical.

"Heissmart,butatrulyevilman,"shesaid,describinghimas"aKGB
officer,whowantstokeepeverythingundercontrolandbelievesthat
everyoneconspiresagainstRussia."

"Putinhadbadcards,buttheywereplayedwell,"shesaid."Atleast,
intheshort-term.IthinkhisgoalistoundermineandsplittheEU.He
wantstodriveNATOfromhissphereofinfluence."

Washington'sformertopdiplomatalsowarnedthattheBalticstates
shouldbeconcernedfromRussia'smilitarybuild-uponitsborders,
especiallybecauseofRussia'smethodof"asymmetricwarfare."

AlbrightalsodismissedRussiancriticismsthattheU.S.seeksto
provokeRussia,saying"theU.S.hasnoproblemwithRussia,exceptwhen
itoccupiesothercountries."

"OnealwayslooksforexcusesforRussiaandI'mfedupwithit,"
Albrightsaid."Russiaisacountrythatprovokesandthenfeelsinsulted."

Inresponse,Putin-allyandchairmanofRussianparliament's
InternationalRelationsCommitteeAlexeyPushkovtooktoTwitter.

"WhetherAlbrightisfedupornot,isnotimportant,"hewrote."The
U.S.anditsalliesareforcedtodealwithRussia.Theopinionofsome
forgottenSecretaryofState,isofnobody'sinterest."
[returntoContents<#n0>]

#5
Euromaidanpress.com
April20,2016
MadeleineAlbrightandRussia's"usefulidiots"
ByVitaliyPortnikov
VitaliyPortnikovisaUkrainianeditorandjournalist.BorninKyivin
1967.Since1989,heworksastheanalystoftheNezavisimayaGazeta,
specializinginpost-Sovietcountries,andcooperateswiththeRussian
andUkrainianservicesofRadioFreeEurope/RadioLiberty.

TheformersecretaryofstateMadeleineAlbrighthasbecomethefocusof
Russianpropaganda.Well-knownhystericsarediscussinghervillainy.
CartoonistsaredepictingherinthetraditionoftheSoviet"portraits"
offoreignenemiesduringtheColdWar.

Andofcourseallofthem-thosewhowriteandthosewhodraw-never
tireofrepeatingthatAlbrightwhohasbeen"onthe"dustbinof
history"andwouldhaveremainedunnoticedbyallifnotforthefact
thatshehadoffended"GreatRussia"andthecountry'sinsaneleader
VladimirPutininaninterviewwiththeAustrianDiePresse.

WhenAlbrightcalledRussia"Bangladeshwithmissiles"sheremindedthe
RussianpropagandistsofthegoodoldnicknamefortheSovietUnion.The
Communistsstatewascalled"UpperVoltawithrockets"inthecivilized
world.And,incidentally,itwasnotfarfromthetruth.

Alreadyafewyearslater,whentheWestreachedthesameconclusion,
theUSSRdidnothavelongtoexist(?)IdonotdoubtthatPutin's
Russiawillfollowitsmalevolentpredecessor.ButinRussiatheytook
offenseatAlbrightnotonlyforthe"Bangladeshwithmissiles"andan
accuratepsychologicalcharacterizationofPutin,whomtheexperienced
diplomatcalleda"trulyevilman."

WhatwasmostimportantwasthatAlbrighthadjudgedthebehaviorofa
certainportionoftheWesternestablishment.

"I'mreallysickofthefactthatpeoplearealwaystryingtofind
excusesforRussia.Russiaisacountrythatprovokesandthenfeels
offended,"AlbrighttoldtheAustrianjournalists.
Shegaveatoughandaccuratedescriptionofthepoliticsofthosewho
arereadytoabandonUkrainetofendforitselfintheconflictwiththe
"offended"aggressor.

ThosewholookforjustificationsforMoscow'sactionsinRussia's
difficulthistoryandtheeternallyvictimized"Russiansoul"whichis
usuallysearchedforwiththehelpofmoneystolenfromtheRussians
themselves.Thosewhoarereadytosellinternationallawforthe
superfluoustankofoil.

ThereareplentyofsuchpeopleamongWesternpoliticians,diplomats,
andjournalists.Theyarethemainenemiesofthosevaluesuponwhich
thecivilizedworldisbased.Theyaretheenemies-notPutin.

BecausePutinisnothidinganything.Hesendsarmies.Heallowsthemto
kill,torture,rape,steal.Andthesepeoplepretendnottonotice
anything.Becausetheyareafraid.Becausetheywantmoney.Becausethey
arethe"usefulidiots"ofthenewFuhrer.Theparentsofmanyofthem
behavedinexactlythesamewayinthe1930s.

Theypreferrednottonotice.Theywereafraid.Theymadeexcuses.Or
theyadmiredthe"spirituality"-whetherNaziorBolshevik.Andthen
theywonderedwheretheGermantanksinParisorAmsterdamcamefromor
theSovietonesinRigaandTallinn.

Itisimportanttounderstandhowithappened!Perhapswehavenotfully
understood?OrhavenotgraspedtheAryansoul?AndthentheRussian
soulisacompletemystery.IfnotforHitler'sidioticattackonhis
allyStalin,ifnotfortheUSentryintothewar,Europewouldhave
losttotheReichandtheflagswiththeswastikascouldstillbewaving
overEuropeancapitals.

But,aswecansee,therehavebeennoconclusionsdrawnfromthis
inevitabledefeat,andwehavecontinuedtobeconfrontedwithstupidity
andbetrayaluntilthepresenttime.ThisissomethingthatMadeleine
Albrightwasnotafraidtosay.Andsomethingthatwe,too,mustnotforget.
[returntoContents<#n0>]

#6
MoscowTimes
April21,2016
Putin'sEconomist:WhyKudrinTappedtoWriteNewReformsPlan
ByKirillRogov
KirillRogovisapoliticalanalyst.

RussianPresidentVladimirPutinhasdecidedthatformerFinance
MinisterandDeputyPrimeMinisterAlexeiKudrinistodrawupanew
economicprogramforthecountry.

AnysensibleeconomicstrategyshouldbebaseduponRussia'sreturnto
regulartransfersofpowerintheKremlin.Noadministrationshould
servefor16years,andaconsiderablesegmentoftherulingelite
understandsthisalltoowell.

AlexeiKudrinhasbeencalledontorejectthatideaandinsteadto
writealiberaleconomicprogramforPutin.Itisdesignedtorevive
hopeamongtheelitethatPutinwilltakeamoreprogressivestance
duringhis19thyearinpower.

Kudrinhasinfactbeenbroughtintoplayanoldgame.Thiswillbethe
fourthsuchprogramofPutin'srule.

ThefirstwasdraftedbyGermanGrefbackin2000.Atthetime,Putin
wascultivatingtheimageofastrongman-reformer,amanwho
effortlesslyfulfilledthelongingoftheRussianpeopleforastrong
leaderalongsidethehopesoftheRussianeliteforaliberalmarket
economy.

Thegovernmentneverformallyadoptedtheprogram.Ministerstookthe
draft"intoconsideration,"allowingleaderstoimplementorignore
policiesastheypleased.

Imagineowningahorse-drawncart:Someonebringsyouplanstoconvert
itintoacarandyoupromiseto"takeitintoconsideration."Atsome
point,youattachsidemirrors,replacethetworearwheelswithalloy
rims,applymetallicpainttothesideboardsandinstallanair
conditionerforthedriver.Theresultisthatyouhaveostensibly
achieved35percentfulfillmentoftheplan.TheRussiangovernment
takesasimilarapproach.

Gref'ssuccessorasEconomicDevelopmentandTradeMinister,Elvira
Nabiullina,drewupthesecondeconomicprogram.Hereffortswereneeded
becausetherealitiesoftheoilboomhadderailedthemarketreforms
envisionedbyGref.Nabiullina'sprogramwasanattempttocarryout
somethingcalled"oilmodernization."Thatprojectwasapprovedin2008
butbecomeirrelevantafewmonthslaterwhenoilpricesfell.

Thethirdliberaleconomicprogramwasthefamous"Strategy2020,"
writtenbyformerPresidentDmitryMedvedev.Thatprogramwasprimarily
intendedtodemonstratePutin'sfirmcontroloverboth
conservative-strongmenandliberal-marketdiscoursesinRussiansociety.

Thisisoneofthemainpoliticalfunctionsoftheliberaleconomic
programsRussia'sseniorleadersperiodicallyorderup.Theyexistto
preventanyoneelsefromproposingpoliticaloreconomicalternatives.
Whateverhappensinreality,ifthegovernmentisrockedbytheYukos
affair,energywars,orthedrainingofpensionfunds,Putinmakessure
toalwayshaveaprogressivereformprogramonthetable.Hemakesit
clearthathejustmightimplementitatanymoment.

Thisfourthprogramwillapparentlyservethesamepurpose.Evenafter
leavingthegovernment,Kudrinhasmanagedtobuildwhatcouldserveas
thebasisforasystemicoppositionpartybyskillfullymaneuvering
betweenmoderatebutsteadyoppositionandpersonalloyaltytoPutin.Of
course,itwouldbemuchmorenaturalforKudrintoheadaprogressive
businessparty,standforelectionsandthenheadaStateDumafaction.
FortheKremlinthatisanunacceptableoption,asiseverynatural
occurrenceinpolitics.

Kudrinhasreceivedonlyvaguepromisesinhisnewpost.Hewasinvited
todraftaneconomicprogramthathasnoofficialstatusorfunding.He
wasofferedonlyindefinitepowersonthepresident'sEconomicCouncil,
astrangeandpracticallynon-functioningbodythatPutinhasnot
consultedevenoncethroughout18monthsofeconomiccrisis.

Kudrinhadbeenhopingtogainthestatusof"exclusivedeveloperof
Russia'snewreforms"and,accordingtorumors,winaseniorposition-
possiblyevendeputyheadofthepresidentialadministration.In
reality,hewasputonashortleashandwarnednottogotoofar.

ThisisdespitethefactthatPutinverymuchneedsKudrin.Bybringing
Kudrintothefore,Putinkillstwobirdswithonestone.First,he
maintainspressureonPrimeMinisterDmitryMedvedev'sgovernment.
Second,inRussia,so-called"systemicliberals"fulfillcertain
paradoxicalpoliticalandfiscalfunctions.Inothercountries,itis
normalforeconomicliberalstoadvocatereductionsinpublicspending,
which,inturn,allowsthegovernmenttolowertaxesandspureconomic
growth.Russia's"systemicliberals"vociferouslycallforspendingcuts
whileneveradvocatingtaxcuts.Tothecontrary,theyevenvigorously
opposetaxcutsfromtimetotime.

Theauthoritieshavetypicallyjustifiedthisstrangepolicyonthe
groundsthattheyhaveneededtobuildupfiscalreserves.Overthelast
sevenyearswhilecofferswerefull,theworldsawjusthowthose
reserveswerespent.Thatexcesscashallowedthegovernmenttoavoid
implementingessentialreformsevenduringatimeofeconomiccrisis.It
wasspentonstaginghistory'scostliestOlympicGamesandawildly
expensiveAsia-PacificEconomicCooperation(APEC)summit,savingthe
Vneshekonombank(VEB)frombankruptcy,increasingdefenseandsecurity
spendingandcreatingtheNationalGuard.
Putindoesneeda"cost-cuttingparty"duringtheeconomiccrisis,and
itneedstobeabureaucratic,non-politicalpartythatwillnotexceed
acceptableboundaries.Thispartyshouldfocusonincreasingsupportfor
raisingtheretirementage:oneofthekeyfiscalmeasuresneededto
preservethe"Putinsystem"duringthiseconomiccrisis.Theexpectation
isthatKudrinwillagreetothisrolewithoutmakingexcessive
politicaldemandsofhisown.

Havingsomeonetofulfillthatroleseemstobetherationalebehindthe
currentmoveKudrinisproposingtodraftaneconomicprogramthat,just
likethepreviousthree,noonehasanyintentionofcarryingout.He
hasn'tbeenpromisedanythingandisexpectedtodoalotofdirtywork
inreturn.
[returntoContent<#n0>s]

#7
MoscowTimes
April21,2016
TheMasksComeOffbutRussianOfficialsHaveNothingLefttoSay
BySamGreene
SamGreeneisapoliticalanalyst.

IfRussianliberalsthinkthey'vegotitbad,theyshouldstopfora
momenttoconsidertheplightofAlexanderBastrykin.

Formally,Bastrykin'sroleasheadofRussia'sInvestigativeCommittee
istoinvestigatecrimewhilesimultaneouslycompetingforresourcesand
influencewithpoliceandprosecutors.Bynight,theludicrousnessof
thatposition-evidencedbytherunningbattlebetweenhiscommittee
andthefederalprosecutorsoverwhethertoremandbusinessmanDmitri
Kamenshchik-evidentlyleaksintohisalter-egoasabsurdistpolitical
theorist.

Littledidheknowhe'dbehavecompetitionintheformofElla
Pamfilova,thehumanrightsactivistturnedheadoftheRussianCentral
ElectionCommission.

WhyBastrykinfeltmovedtoenterintothepublicfraythisweek,
penninganessayintheKommersantVlastmagazinethatseemeddesigned
toconfirmeveryRussianliberal'sworstfears,wecannotknow.

Perhaps,assomehavesuggested,hewaslobbyingfornewpowersto
counterseditiononline,inuniversitiesandelsewhere.It'sunlikely,
though,thatthepagesofasemi-liberalmagazinearethebestvenuefor
that.Maybe,aftertherecentshakeupinRussia'slawenforcement
universe,hefeltunsureofhispositionanddecidedtotrytoprovehis
loyaltyandusefulnesswithadeclarationofideologicalfervor.That
tackdidn'tworksowellforoustedrailwayschiefVladimirYakunin.

Whatwedoknow,however,isthatBastrykinsaidnothingnew.The
proposalstomoretightlycontrolflowsofinformationandcapitalhave
beenaroundforyears.TaxpoliceandRoskomnadzoralreadyhavemostof
theextra-judicialpowersthatBastrykinsaysaresocritical.
Similarly,authoritiesclearlyseeideologyandhistoryasa
battleground,andhavelongarguedthattheiropponentsarebackedby
theWest.AndthefactthatMoscow'senforcershavelittlepatiencefor
thenicetiesofconstitutionalismshould,in2016,comeasasurpriseto
noone.

Andso,unableorunwillingtotellusanythingwedidn'talreadyknow,
Bastrykinfollowedinthefootstepsofcountlesspreacherswhohavebeen
abandonedbytheirmuse:Hesimplysaiditlouderandbrasher.

Whatcaughtreaders'attentionwasBastrykin'scallto"stopplayingat
falsedemocracy"andabandon"pseudo-liberalvalues."LikeDonaldTrump
intheUnitedStates,we'renotsurprisedBastrykinthinksthesethings,
butweallowourselvesamomentofrighteousindignationwhenhe
actuallysaysthem.
That'sthemirrorimageofliberals'reactiontoPamfilova.Shortly
afterBastrykinpublishedhisthesis,Pamfilovatoldopposition
candidateIvanZhdanov-whoisfacingprosecutiononevidentlytrumped
upcharges-thatheshouldhave"knownwhatwouldhappenwhenyouwent
intopolitics."ThataRussianelectionofficialwouldsaysuchathing
is,alas,parforthisparticularcoursethesurpriseisthat
Pamfilova,whospentherlifeinthehumanrightscommunity,might
actuallythinkit.

Liberals'doubtsaboutPamfilovaintensifiedwhensheinitiallyturneda
blindeyetoobviousfraudaroundlocalcouncilelectionsinthe
affluentMoscowsuburbofBarvikha.Zhdanovandotherssupportedby
AlexeiNavalny'sPartyofProgressdecidedtocontesttheelectionsas
anearlytestofhowtheKremlin-andPamfilova-wouldmanagethe
upcomingDumavote.Presentedwithevidenceoftheusualrepertoireof
early-voteballotstuffingandotherformsofmanipulation,Pamfilova
offeredtopasstheallegationsontoYuryChaika,theprosecutor
generalwhosefamily'sbusinessdealingshavebeensubjecttoarecent
investigationbyNavalnyandZhdanov.Theironywaslostonnoone.

Navalnyeventuallyyankedhiscandidatesfromtherace,passingjudgment
onPamfilovaintheprocess.Nodoubtspurredonbythecriticism,the
nextdaytheCentralElectionCommitteedemandedthatlocalofficials
cancelthevotewhatwillhappennextremainsunclear.

ImagineBastrykin'sfrustration:Herehewas,settingeverythingupfor
agood-cop-bad-coproutine,andPamfilovashowsup,wantingtoplaythe
badcoptoo.Butthecomedymasksadeepertragedy:Whenthereareno
otherwordstosayandnothoughtstothink,theabsurdityofitall
becomesbanal,boring,andtheplayers,trappedintheirroles,tireof
themasks.
[returntoContents<#n0>]

#8
Vedomosti
April12,2016
Russiansseeparliamentashaving"symbolic"significance-pollsterchief
AlekseyLevinson,headoftheLevadaCentreSocialandCulturalStudies
Department,SocietySeesItselfOnlyasthe'Majority.'ForSucha
Society,theParliamentandPartiesHaveNoPracticalSignificance

LevadaCentreputseveralquestionstothefuturevotersabouttheir
attitudetopoliticalparties.Whatfollowsbelowisnotanelectoral
forecast,butadiscussionofwhatourpartysystemlookslikeinthe
eyesofRussiancitizens.

Onlyfivepartiesexistwhichoverhalfofvoterssaythey"know"(which
mostlikelymeans"recognize").TheseareUnitedRussia,theCPRF
[CommunistPartyoftheRussiaFederation],theLDPR[Liberal-Democratic
PartyofRussia],JustRussia,andYabloko.However,thereisa
differencebetweensuch"knowing"andareadinesstosupportaparty
withyourownvote.Thisdifferenceisseveral-foldevenforUnited
Russia,whileforotherpartiesitishuge.Itworksoutthatthe
citizenswillnotvoteforthemnotbecausetheydonotknowthem,but
actuallybecausetheydo.

Whatkindofparliamentdoweneed?Amultipartyone,onewithfew
parties,orjustaone-partyparliament?Only8percentofvotersare
infavourofaparliamentinwhich"amultitudeofrelativelysmall
parties"holdsittings.ADumawithonesoleparty(andwecanguess
whichone)wouldsuitone-fourthofRussiansperfectlywell.Butthe
followingopinionisthemostwidelyheld(45percent):Weneeda
systemof"twoorthreelargeparties."That,itwouldseem,iswhatthe
willoftheelectoratelookslike.Butenoughvotesfromthesesame
voterscannotbemusteredevenfortwolargeparties,nevermindthree.
UnitedRussiacanqualifyfortheterm"large,"andaround40percent
intendtosupportittoday,butthosewhoarepromisingtovoteforthe
CPRFandtheLDPRtogethercometolessthan20percent.

Ourpresentparliamentarismisacomplexphenomenon.Theexecutive,for
allitsinclinationforhegemony,undoubtedlyneedsaparliament.And
notonlyasadecoration,andnotonlyasa"printer."Yes,theDumais
notaplacefordiscussions,butithasreallybecomeoneofthe
platformswhere"issuesareresolved,"whereinterestscollideandfind
compromise.Theonlythingisthattheinterests--perceived,andthen
processed,havingobtainedtheirmouthpiece--bynomeansbelongtothe
"entirepeople,"northe"majority,"butonlytothe"minority,"such
as,inourcountry,businesses,corporations,andorganisations.There
isnothingunsoundinthis.Thetaskisthatallofsocietyshould
emergeasacomplexconglomerateof"minorities"--professional,
regional,social,andothers.Theirrepresentatives,throughthe
mediationofsomekindofpartysystem,wouldentertheparliamentto
coordinatetheirmostdiverseinterests.Letusnoteinpassingthat
thisinterweavingofminoritiesisstrongerandmoreviablethana
singlemonolithicmajority.Becausetheunityofthatisensuredbysome
kindofsingle,oneandonlyfactor,whereasinaconglomerateof
minoritiesthereisamultitudeoffactorsofinterdependenceand
connection.

Societycurrentlyseesitselfonlyasa"majority."Forsuchamajority,
whichhasnotmadesenseofitselfinternally,aparliamentandparties
arethingswithsymbolicratherthanpracticalsignificance.Thatiswhy
now(untilthetelevisionhasrousedthem)46percentstilldonothave
anymoreorlesssetdecisionsonparticipatingintheelections.And
thepublic'sexpectationsaboutwhethertheupcomingelectionsarea
"realfightforpowerandseatsintheDuma"orwhetherthis"willjust
beanimitationofafight,whilethedistributionofseatsintheDuma
willbedeterminedbytheauthorities'decision"aresplitexactly
half-and-half.
[returntoContents]<#n0>

#9
MoscowTimes
April21,2016
MoreThanHalfofRussiansWantNewSovietState-Poll

MorethanhalfofRussianswouldliketoseetherestorationofthe
SovietUnion,accordingtoapollreleasedTuesday.

Although58percentofrespondentssaidtheywouldliketoseeanew
socialistsystem,only14percentbelievedthatitwaslikelytohappen,
thereportbytheindependentLevadacenterpollsterrevealed.

Thirty-onepercentofrespondentswereopposedtorestoringtheSoviet
Union,while10percentdidnotgiveanopinion.

Thenumbersshowlittlechangefromasimilarpollconductedadecade
ago,thepollsterreported.

ThenumberofRussianswhoregretthecollapseoftheSovietUnion-
currently56percent-remainsbelowtheall-timehighin2000when
PresidentVladimirPutincametopower.Atthetime,some75percentof
RussiansregrettedthefalloftheSovietUnion,accordingtoLevada
Centerpolls.

JustoverhalfofRussians,or51percent,thinktheSovietcollapse
couldhavebeenavoided,whileanother33percentbelieveitwas
inevitable,thelatestpollindicated.InMarch2000,thenumbersstood
at62percentand26percent,respectively.

ThelatestpollwasconductedattheendofMarchwith1,600adultsin
137citiesandtownsacrossRussia.
[returntoContents]<#n0>

#10
Russians'ApproachtoPoliticsInconsistentandParadoxical,Sociologist
Says
PaulGoble
Staunton,April20-NewpollsshowingmorethanhalfofRussiansregret
thedemiseoftheUSSR
(vestikavkaza.ru/news/Bolee-poloviny-rossiyan-sozhaleyut-o-raspade-SSSR-opros.html)

andthat40percentofRussiansdonotbelievethestateismeetingits
obligationstothem(kasparov.ru/material.php?id=57172AB41357E)have
attractedagreatdealofattention.

ButathirdsurveyconductedbyIrinaVorobyovaoftheRussianState
HumanitiesUniversitymaybethemostimportantbecauseitfocuseson
theparadoxesandinternalinconsistencesoftheapproachofRussiansto
politics,politicalself-identification,andexpectations.

Herstudy,"ContradictionsandParadoxesofPoliticalOrientationsin
theStructureoftheWorldofRussians,"Sotsiologicheskiye
issledovaniya,no.1(2016),isavailableonlineat
socis.isras.ru/files/File/2016/2016_1/17_26_Vorobieva.pdfandhasjust
presentedindetailontheTolkovatelportalathttp://ttolk.ru/?p=26642.

Accordingtothesociologist,"only20percentofRussianstakean
activeinterestinpolitics,"butmuchlargersharesidentifyas
patriots,nationalistsorliberalist.Theusualexplanationforthis
divide,shesays,isthatRussians"delegate"politicstothe
governmentbutshereportsthatonly20percentbelievetheauthorities
arehonest.

Russians'interestinpoliticshasbeenfallingforageneration,
Vorobyovreports.In1987,54.4percentofRussianssaidtheywere
activelyinterestedinpoliticallife.Butby2013,thatfigurehad
fallento27.1andnowitisevenlower.Andoverthesameperiod,the
shareofthosewithnointerestinpoliticshasrisenalmost1200percent.

ThesociologistpointstoanotherparadoxinRussianviewsasexpressed
tosurveyresearchers.Ontheonehand,Russianvaluethedemocratic
rightsandfreedomstheyhaveacquiredbutontheother,"theyare
quiteskepticalabouttheinstitutionscalledtotransformdemocracy
intolife"andbelievethattheyneedastrongstatewithatoughleader.

AnotherparadoxVorobyovpointstoisthat"thepoliticalidentification
ofRussians"withthisorthattrend"doesnotalwaysdirectly
correspondtotheirelectoralchoices."Shearguesthatthisreflects
anincreasingdesireofRussianstosupportacenterasinthecentral
powerandthecenterofthespectrum.

YetanotherparadoxamongRussiansaboutpoliticsisthat"thehigh
levelofsupportforthepowersthatbe"iscombinedwithanequally
highlevelofalienationfromthestate,"alackoftrustinthe
majorityofgovernmentinstitutions,"andtheconvictionofthemajority
thatthestatedoesnotservetheirinterests.

Vorobyovconcludesthatthisleadstoasituationinwhich"the
populationsupportstheauthorities"notbecausethelattermeettheir
needsbutbecausethepopulationisafraidofchangesandthe
possibilitythathoweverbadthingsare,theycouldasaresultofany
changegetworse.

Thesociologistconcludesthat"inRussiansocietythereexistsmassive
supportfortheauthoritiesalongsidealowleveloftrustinspecific
governmentinstitutionsandasensethattheauthoritiesdonotsupport
ordinarypeople"andthat"thedesiretohavedemocraticrightsand
freedomsexistsinparallelwithsupportforastrongstate,afirm
hand,andpaternalism."

Itislikelythattheseparadoxes,whichreflectaspecificnationalset
ofexperiences,explainmanyoftheotherpollresultsoftencitied,
includingthosewhichappeartorepresentradicalbreakswithearlier
positionsbutinfactsimplymirrorthedivisionsandcontradictions
withinRussianminds.
[returntoContents]<#n0>
#11
Politkom.ru
April6,2016
MostRussiansnotinterestedingettingtruepictureofworld-analysis
YelenaPozdnyakova,FlightfromDiversity:HowRussiansConsumeInformation

Despitealltherestrictions,theRussianinformationarenaremains
quitepluralistic,somethingthattheproliferationoftheInternetin
thecountryisfacilitating.However,Russiansocietyisfarfromfully
usingthispotential.Andworldpracticehasnotmovedforwardmuchin
thissenseeither.WehaveanalysedtheRussianmediaspaceandthe
informationpracticesofRussiansociety,andhavereachedconclusions
thatarenotthatoptimistic.

Sometimesinarticlesbycommentatorsandsociologiststheideais
automaticallyacceptedthatlearningthenews"fromthetelevision"is
thelotofthe"socialperiphery",whichisundiscriminatinginits
choiceofsources,andthe"graymasses"whoareremotefromany
progressiveideas.InRussiathisispartlytrue,despitethecontinuing
penetrationoftheInternetintotheeverydaylivesofRussiansandthe
presenceofothertypesofmedia:insmalltowns,televisionistheonly
windowontotheworld.Ontheotherhand,unbiaseddatashowthat
televisionisalsothemainsourceofinformationforthe"social
centre":peoplewhoprefertoreceivetheirnewsfromthetelevision,
themajority.Moreover,therearealmostasmanyoftheminEuropeas
well.Atthesametime,confidenceintelevisionandothermedia,
informationhabitsetc-allofthisdetermineshowpeopleinterpret
information.Thatiswhyitisextremelyinterestingtoexamine
Russians'attitudestowardsthemediabasedonstatisticsandopinionpolls.

OnlyRussiansbelongingtoastatisticallyinsignificantminoritycan
makethetruthfulstatement"Idonotwatchtelevision"or"Idonot
haveatelevision",accordingtodatafrombothLevada-CentreandTNS
andNielsen:inonewayoranother,anabsolutemajorityofourfellow
countrymenwatchtelevision.AccordingtodatafromLevada-Centre
obtainedinMarch2014(thereportRussianMediaLandscape:Television,
Press,Internet),90percentofRussiansnamedtelevisionastheirmain
(mostfrequent)sourceforobtainingnewsinthecountryandinthe
world.AboutaquarterofRussiansjustasfrequentlylearntnewsfrom
thosearoundthemandfromtheInternet(inMoscowtheshareofthese
meansofobtaininginformationissubstantiallyhigher-47percentand
42percentrespectively).Newspapers,radio,andthesocialnetworks
areusedbyfewerthanone-fifthofRussiansforobtainingthelatest
news,andmagazinesarereadbyjustfivepercent.Theresultsobtained
byNielsenforRussiaweresomewhatdifferent(TheNielsenGlobal
GenerationalAttitudesReport,2015):accordingtothesedata,just61
percentofRussianslearnthenewsfromtelevisionwhiletheshareof
"virtual"socialcommunicationsinformingapictureoftheworldis
muchhigherthanunderLevada'sdata:almost40percentofcitizens
learnthenewsfromfriendsandthesocialnetworks.Another46percent
usesearchenginesforthis.

Onthewhole,Nielsen'sdataareverysimilar(exceptforthefigureson
television)totheLevada-CentredataforMoscow.Atthesametime,
Russianresearcherspointtothefactthatinthebigcitiesa
significantnumberofcitizensseektodiversifytheirsourcesof
information.The"socialcentre"oftenusesthreeormorenewssources,
whilethe"socialperiphery"usesoneortwo,butthisperiphery
comprisesmorethan70percentofcitizensand55percentofthem
almostexclusivelywatchtelevision.Evenamongthosewhohavehigher
education,highconsumerstatus,usetheInternet,ordonotapproveof
theregime'sactivities,atleastthree-quarterswatchthenewsonTV.
Peoplebusywiththeirowndailylivesdonothavethetimetostudy
othersourcesintheirsearchofnews,andthismeansthatnewsdoesnot
haveahighvalueandtakesplaceinaworldremotefromtheir
interests.Thegapbetweenthenumberofpeoplewholearnnewsfromthe
televisionandtheproportionofthosewhousesocialnetworkstoobtain
informationshowsthatasignificantproportionofRussiansdonot
discussthestateofaffairsinthecountryandtheworldwiththose
aroundthem.
However,itwouldbeamistaketothinkthatthespreadofInternet
mediaandthediversificationofsourcesofinformationwillreducetoa
minimumtheexclusiveinfluenceoftelevisiononthemindsofourfellow
citizenswithinashortperiodoftime.Televisionremainsanimportant
sourceofinformationaboutthecountryandtheworldfor55percentof
Europeans(Nielsen'sdata).Amongtheoldergenerations(startingwith
generationX-35-49yearolds),thisfigureapproachesthenationalone
andexceedsit,butevenamonggenerationZ(upto20yearsold),half
watchtelevision.Admittedly,Europeansinallagecohortsareactively
diversifyingtheirsourcesofinformation,soalargegroupofpeople
learningnewsfromonlyonesourceisformedalmostnowhere.Andof
course,theInternetintheformofsearchenginesthatassemble
headlines,andintheformofon-lineversionsofthetraditionalmedia,
andintheformofthesocialnetworks,hasbecomefirmlyestablishedin
theinformationhabitsofEuropeans,particularlyofyoungpeople.The
disappearingformatforpresentingnewsis,asmightbeexpected,the
printedpress:attentiontoitamongtheagecohortsdecreasesasage
decreases.

Intheory,bydiversifyingsources,eachperson,likeacompetent
investor,isreducingrisks-inthiscasetherisksofdisinformation,
manipulation,andexternalinfluenceontheperson'sopinion.However,
judgingbyfurtheranalysis,fortheformationofanindependentand
moreorlessobjectiveopinionbytheconsumerofinformation,whatis
importantistheinitialhabitofworkingwithdifferentsources,a
greatdesiretounderstandtheagenda,andanunderstandingthatany
sourcescanbebiasedinonewayoranother.Otherwise,despitethe
extensiveopportunitiesforusingvariousmeansofobtaining
information,theindividualwill"adjust"theminsuchawaythatthe
spreadofpositionsinthemisminimal-tominimizetheirown
discomfortandeffortsto"digest"theinformation.Russiansareatthe
momentalongwayfromobjectivity,astheLevadaresearchshows:by
choosingoneortwosourcesofinformation,amongwhichtelevisionis
themostsignificant,citizenscondemnthemselvestodisinformation-
bothintermsofthestyleofthepresentationofthenewsandinterms
ofitsselection.Itisworthnotingthatwithsuchanapproachto
creatinganinformationpictureoftheworldbyeachcitizen,evenif
themediaweredependentnotonthestatebutonotherplayers(for
example,bigbusiness),citizenswouldstillnotbeabletoformamore
appropriatenotionofreality.

Insituationswherethemediadependontheregime,theemergenceofnew
waysofconveyinginformationtotheconsumeralongsidealowlevelof
interestamongcitizensthemselvesineventsinthecountryandthe
worldalsomeansanincreaseinopportunitiesfortheideologizationand
politicizationofthepopulation.Growingtiredoftheabundanceofnews
(orsimplynotinterestedinthe"outsideworld),peopleprefertobe
entertained,butifnotapoliticalthenattheveryleastavalue-based
connotationcanbegiventoanyentertainment.Thiscanbeclearlyseen
fromtheexampleofHollywood(thehighvalueloadoffilmsforthemass
audience)andtheexampleofRussiantelevisionprogrammes-for
example,theideological"transformation"ofKVN.

Television:Informationhegemon

AccordingtoLevada-Centredata,theadvantagesoftelevisionoverother
channelsforobtainingnewsaregraduallybeingreducedforRussiaifwe
lookatthelongterm.Thus,inarecentarticleforSlon.ru,the
centre'sdirector,LevGudkov,presentsthisinformation:in2009,94
percentofthosepollednamedtelevisionastheirmainsourceof
information,in2015-85percent,andthisisalongsideamajor
reductioninconfidenceintelevision.Admittedly,forthesakeof
fairnessitshouldbenotedthatconfidencealsofellinothersources
ofinformation,soTVwasstilltheleader.

Inanycase,thereareanumberofreasonsfortelevision'ssuccessasa
sourceofnewsinRussiaandinEurope.Amongthemisthefactorofthe
lackofneedforanyefforttoobtaininformation,whichisensuredby
itsclarity(thankstotheuseofbothaudioandvideoandtextualand
graphicinformation).Televisionnewsisalsoexceptionallyconvenient
becausesuchinformationcanbeconsumedwhiledoingotherthingsin
parallel.Thus,accordingtoNielsen'sdata,Russiansaloneandinthe
familycircleprefertodinewhilewatchingtelevisionprogrammes.

Asmightbeexpected,thestatechannelsarethemostpopularamong
Russians.AccordingtodatafromLevada-Centre(forJune2014),82per
centofRussianswatchednewsonFirstChannelmoreorlessregularly,
71percentonRussia-1,andfollowingthembyalargemarginNTV:48
percent.Russians'verylowlevelofinterestinreginalandlocal
television(around13percent)issignificant:apparently,itis
possibletoobtainthemainnewsatalocallevelthroughthe
"grapevine",theperceptionofregionalchannelsas"amateurish"by
comparisonwiththefederalonesissignificant,andinadditionthe
factorofquitealowlevelofinterestinthelocalagendaalsoexists.

ManyresearchershavenotedtherapidincreaseinRussians'interestin
televisionnewssincetheeventsinUkrainebut,surprisingly,themain
beneficiaryofthisprocessturnedouttobethechannelRussia-24:
twiceasmanycitizensthaninOctober2012startedtowatchitandthe
channeltookastrongfourthplaceinthespectrumofRussians'
preferences.FirstChannelandRussia-1alsowonanadditionalaudience
althoughonalesserscale.Butalltheeventsintheinformation
pictureshadnoinfluenceonNTV:itsaudiencedidnotchangeatall,
andthesamethingwasobservedwithRen-TV.Thesechannelsfirmly
occupiedtheirniches,andtheyarenotattractingnewviewersofnews
programmes.

Moreover,itispossibletocomparethetimeonairthatnewsprogrammes
occupyonthechannels.IfweignoreRussia-24,aspecialchannelwhere
anyonewhosodesirescanlearnthenewsatanytimeduringtheday,
thenthenextchannelprovidingthemaximumamountoftimetonews
programmeseverydaywillbeRussia-1.Admittedly,itneedstobetaken
intoaccountthatthischannelgivessomeairtimetoregionalandlocal
newsprogrammes.Nevertheless,viewersofthefederalchannelhavean
opportunityeverydaytogetinvolvedinpoliticalanalysisandon
Sundaytheycanenjoyitforasmuchastwo-and-a-halfhours-longer
thanonotherchannels.Russia-1'scompetitorshaveaboutthesame
amountoftime-betweentwo-and-a-halfandalmostthreehoursonairis
takenupbynews(i.e.atleast10percentofairtime).Theyalso
competeonanequalbasisintheproductionofanalyticalprogrammes-
thosethathelpcitizens"tocorrectlyinterpret"thenews.

Itispossibletotraceratingsfornewsandanalyticalprogrammeson
RussianchannelsfromdataprovidedbytheTNScompany.Onthewhole,
thesphereforratingtelevisioninRussiaturnedouttobethefield
foranumberofrowslinkedtothestrivingofthebigplayersonthe
televisionmarket(firstchannel,VGTRK,theGazprom-Mediaholding
company,theNationalMediaGroup,andSTS-Media[CTCMedia])tolimit
TNS'smonopolyonresearch.FirstChannelevenlauncheditsownproject
toevaluateratings,butitabandonedtheidea.Therewerealsoattempts
toinviteotherlargecompaniesforevaluation,andaccusationsof
unscrupulousnessagainstthemonopoly-holder.Theproblemisthe
difficultyofmeasuringtheaudience,andtheneedtomakelarge
investmentsinequipment.

Nevertheless,theinternationalcompanyisstillcontinuingtostudythe
audienceoftheRussiantelevisionchannels,whileadmittedly
restrictingitselftotheurbanpopulation(intownsofover100,000
people)andnotcountingchildrenuptofouryearsofage.Information
programmesfirmlyoccupytopplacesintheweeklysurveysandareinthe
topthreeofthechannel'smostpopularprogrammes.Thus,inDecember
2015newsandanalyticalprogrammesonTelevisionFirstChanneland
Russia-1werepresentinthe10mostpopularprogrammeswithratingsof
6-8percent(theshareofthosewhowatchedtheprogrammeoftheentire
targetaudience,which,ifweusedatafromthe2010census,comprises
around70millionpeople).Thismeansthataccordingtoroughestimates,
themostpopularnewsprogrammesarewatchedsimultaneouslybybetween
fourandsixmillionpeople.Itseemsthatthisisnotthatmany,
especiallyifyouimaginethescaleofthecountry.Forexample,the
Metronewspaperislookedatbynearlytwomillionpeopleaday,and
morethan20millionvisiteitherYandexorMail.ru.Buttelevision's
strengthisitsaround-the-clockbroadcastingandtherelativediversity
ofchannels,soeffectivelynewsonTVsucceedsduetothenumberof
broadcasts.

Theillusionofdiversityisalsosupportedbythechannelsthemselves
whochooseslightlydifferentstylesforpresentingnewsmaterial,not
tomentiontheobviousspecializationsoftheindividualchannels:the
"distortions"ofNTVandRen-TVserveasthebasisformanyjokes.But
therearenodifferencesintheessentialapproachtonewsandvalues
thatthestatechannels"promote",whichleavestheRussiancitizenwith
asinglepossibleinterpretationofwhatishappening.Initselfthis
hasanegativeeffectoninterestinthenewsagenda,whichisnotthat
greatanyway:peopledonottakeinthenewsthatisreallyimportant
fortheirlives(forexample,fromthesphereoffinancialregulationor
concerninglocalproblems),nottomentionpoliticalandforeignpolicy
problems.Viewingtelevisionnewsprogrammesisnolongersomuchaway
oflearningwhatishappeninginthecountryandtheworldasaritual,
aroutinepastime.

Internet:"Kitties"versuscivilposition

TheInternet,despiteasignificantproportionofhouseholdshaving
accesstoit(accordingtodatafromJ'son&PartnersConsulting29.7
millionhouseholdshadbroadbandaccesstotheInternetatthestartof
2015,andbytheendof2015thenumberofusers,ascalculatedbythe
GfKagency,comprised84million),isnotthemainsourceofinformation
abouttheworldandparticularlythemainsourceofnews.Atthesame
time,thehabitofusingtheInternetindailylifeisgraduallytaking
root,whichmakesthiscommunicationchannelthemainrivalfor
traditionaltelevisioninthelong-term.

ItisobviousthatRussiansusetheInternetdifferently.Thus,GfK
citesinformationthatamongRussiansbetweentheagesof16and29,97
percentusetheInternet-foryoungpeopleeveninsmalltownsithas
becomecommonplace.Itsaudiencecanonlybeexpandednowbyexpanding
theaudienceintheolderagegroupsandthis,ofcourse,ismoredifficult.

AccordingtoTNSRussia,thenumberofRussiansaccessingthewebdaily
comprisesslightlymorethan60percent.Butdataiscitedonlyfor
townswithpopulationsofatleast100,000andalsoamongthe12-54age
group.Accordingtodatafromthe2010census,theanalysiscallson
around40-45percentofthecitizensofRussia-thegroupofthemost
activeageandlivingincomparatively"civilized"conditions.Itwould
belogicaltoassumethattheremainingcitizensdonothavedaily
accesstotheweband,consequently,areunlikelytousetheInternetas
theirmainsourceofnews.Ifweweretoestimatetheproportionof
Russia'sgeneralpopulationaccessingtheInterneteveryday(andthe
estimateisveryrough),thentheywouldmakeuparoundone-thirdof
Russia'spopulationorabout50millionpeople.

Whatdothesenotional30percentluckypeopledoontheweb?A
significantnumberofthesepeoplefirstchecktheirmailonpopular
platforms:Yandex(27.75million),Mail.ru(22.63million),Google
(almost14million)asofDecember2015,theyoccupyfirst,secondand
fourthplacerespectivelyintheratingofvisitstoresources,
accordingtoTNSRussiadata.ThemainRussiansocialnetworkVKontakte
isinthirdplace.Itisvisitedbymorethan22millionoftheRussians
whoopenbrowserseveryday.ThepopularityofforeignFacebook,which
iswidelyseenasapoliticalplatform,issubstantiallylower-itis
openedeverydaybyapproximatelyjustthreepercentofthepopulation
-4.329millionpeople,evenfewerareinterestedinTwitter,fewerthan
one-and-a-halfmillionpeoplevisititeveryday.Thepopularityof
blogsontheLiveJournalsitehasnotyetwanedentirely:1.777million
peopleopenLiveJournaladay.Itturnsoutthattherearemore
connoisseursof"longreads"inRussiathanthosewhoprefershort
"tweets",andthereareevenmorewhoprefertolookat"photos"on
Instagram(thereare1.684millionofthem).
Thefirstmediaoutletthatcouldbecalledtraditional-theRBK
website-isactuallybetweenLiveJournalandInstagram,in15thplace
intherankingofdailyvisits.TheRIANovostisiteisalsopresent
amongthetop20mostpopular,itterminatestheranking.Itisvisited
by1.262millionusersaday,thatislessthanonepercentof
Russians.However,despitethefactthatitlooksverymodestinterms
oftheshareofvisits,thepopularresourcesontheInternetarereally
popularinabsolutefigures.Thus,Yandexastheleaderisaccessedby
morethan27millionpeopleaday,43.5millionaweek,and52.5million
peopleamonth-effectivelymorethanone-thirdoftheentire
populationofRussia.

TheYandexcompanyalsocarriesoutresearchintotheInternetaudience,
theresultsofwhichareofexceptionalinterestfromthepointofview
ofaportraitofInternetusers.Thus,thecompany'sstatisticsconfirm
theopinionthatuserschoosecertaingroupsofresourcesandrarely
readresourcesfromothergroups:theymanagedtomakeaclear
distinctionbetweentheaudiencesofthewebsitesofthetelevision
channels,bignewsagenciesetc,andtheaudiencesofthebusinesspress
andpublicationsforprofessionals(incidentally,RIANovostifallsinto
thefirstgroup,andRBKintothesecond).Agroupoffansofonline
publicationsofaliberalpersuasionemergedandalsoagroupofreaders
ofdailynewspapers,orrathertheirInternetversions.Finally,and
thisisinteresting,FirstChanneldidnotfallintothegroupthat
containedtheremainingtelevisionchannelsbutratherintoagroup
whereinthetraditionalsenseprimarily"women's"publicationswere
concentrated(Internetmagazinesabout"thestars",runningahousehold,
abouthowtolookafterafamilyetc).Evidently,FirstChannel's
websiteisusednottoobtainnewsbuttowatchprogrammesbroadcastby
thechannelonline.Thus,itturnsoutthatthegroups'audiencesreally
donotoverlapandthismeansthatsocialdialogueisnotconductedvia
themedia,andthedifferentsocial(orideological)groupslivein
theirownseparateworlds.Thisisclearlyseenfromtheexampleof
Facebookwheretheuser'sfeedisbasedontheirpreferences,ultimately
sealingthemintoarangeofmoreorlessthesamepeople,thoughtsand
events.

Nevertheless,ahugenumberofpeople,astheTNSdatashow,startto
browsewebpagesbyvisitingthewebsitesofYandexorMail.ru.Itcan
beassumed,incidentally,thatpeoplewhovisitoneoftheseportalsdo
notvisittheother(ortheydososignificantlylessfrequently).The
totalnumberofuserswhovisitoneoftheportalseachdaycomprises
slightlymorethan50million(which,althoughitisveryrough,is
stillmoreorlessinlinewithpreviousestimatesofthenumberof
dailyusersoftheInternet.Bothportals,inadditiontohostingmail,
alsooffertheirvisitorsaselectionofnews(createdautomatically),
whichreflectsthenewsattractingthemostmediaattention.Therange
ofnewsofferedonitsfirstpagebyMail.ruissignificantlybroader
thanthatofYandex.

AccordingtoTNSdata,Yandex'shomepage(withthetopfivenewsitems)
isopenedeverydaybymorethan20millionpeopleandslightlymore
thansixmillionvisititsnews(andonaverageview3.5pages).While
visitsofMail.rulookmuchmoremodestagainstthisbackdrop:thehome
pageisopenedby14millionpeopleandthenewsbyjust3.8million.
Admittedly,onaverageavisitorofMail.ruviewsslightlymorecontent
(3.9pages).Soitisnotsurprisingthattheprinciplesforselecting
Yandex'stopnewsstorieshaverepeatedlycausedrowswithapolitical
contextwhenithasbeenactivelydiscussedonthewebwhether
Yandex.Novostineedstoberecognizedasamediaoutletandthe
correspondingliabilitybeestablishedfortheservice.Despite
scandalousexamples-intheviewofpatriotsandconservatives-of
Yandex.Novosti's"anti-Russian"attitudetowardsinformingRussiansand
alsoattentiontotheproblemonthepartofVladimirPutin,therowwas
hushedup-orcametonothingitself.Possiblybecausethenewsthat
appearsonthehomepageisnotofgreatinteresttoawideaudience,
despitetheattimesextremelyflamboyantheadlines.Admittedly,
deputiesfromtheCPRF[CommunistPartyoftheRussianFederation]and
JustRussiahaverecentlystartedtolobbyforrestrictionsfornews
aggregators.
However,itisnotatallnecessarytobeamediaoutletforanInternet
resourcetoattractattention,particularlywithquiteanarrow
audience,anexampleofwhichisdemonstratedbythesocialnetworks.
VKontakteisapopularsourceofinformationfortheyoungaudience-to
suchanextentthatperhapstheabsolutemajorityofpeopleagedbetween
12and30haveapageonthissocialnetwork-thatinfactthelackof
suchapagegivesrisetoquestions.DespitethefactthatFacebookis
farbehindthisnetworkintermsofthenumberofhitsaday,weekand
month,itisalsooneofthemostvisitedprojectsinRussia.

Foralongtimenow,informationinthesocialnetworksspreadsnotonly
fromusertouserbutalsoviapublicpageswherecontentiscreated
likeinthemoretraditionalmedia.Publicpagesalsogeneratememesand
transmitthemtogetherwiththenews,enrichingitwithnewnuancesand
meanings,andinthissensethenewsthattheyprovideisassimilated
verywellbytheiraudience.Itmakessensetopayattentiontothemost
replicatedcontent.

ThelistoftoppublicpagesonVKontakteincludesmainlyentertainment
pages:publicpagescontainingjokes,pictures,"lifeadvice",reviews
ofmoviesandmusic,recipes,etc.So,essentially,notasinglepublic
pagethatpublishesnews.Andwhiletheaudienceofsubscribersofthe
mostpopularentertainmentpublicpagesexceedseightmillionpeople,it
doesnotevenreachonemillionforthemostpopularnewspage.Atthe
sametimethesocialnetworksaresocialnetworksinordertoprovide
peoplewithasemblanceofpersonalcontactwithnewsmakers.Themost
popularmanonVkontakte-PremierDmitriyMedvedev-hasmorethantwo
millionsubscribers.Butotherpopularindividualshavenothingtodo
withnewsinitssocio-politicalcontext,soitshouldbeacknowledged
thatVKontaktedoesnotperformanyfunctioninthecapacityofanews
source.

Facebookseemstobeaimedatanaudiencethatismoreinterestedinthe
political-economicandsocialagenda.But,firstly,theactualsizeof
thisaudienceissignificantlysmallerthanVKontakte'sand,secondly,
inactualfactthisisnotquitetrue.Brandpagesenjoythegreatest
(andreallyhuge)popularityonthissocialnetwork.Infirstplaceis
NikeFootballRussia-accordingtodatafromfacebook.ksan.comasof
March2015thispagehadbeenlikedby36millionusersfromRussia.But
whataboutthemedia?Infirstplaceintermsofthenumberoflikesis
AdMe,previouslyaportalaboutdesignandadvertising,andnowitis
moreofalifestyleblog.Thispagehasmorethan1.5millionuserswho
seenewsfromitintheirfeed.Bywayofcomparison,thesamenumberof
peopleseeupdatesfromthebrandEvianinRussia(20thplaceamong
brands).AndinsecondplaceistheVesti.rupublication,almost1.4
millionsubscribers.Interestinthispage,accordingtothesamedata,
increasedverygradually,startingin2012,sotherecanbenoquestion
ofarapidsurgeininterestinthewakeoftheUkrainianeventsin
2014:about300,000peoplelikedthepageforthefirsttimebetween
January2014andJanuary2015,thisisevenslightlylessthanbetween
January2013andJanuary2014.ApartfromAdMeandVesti,thetop10
mediapagesonRussianFacebookalsoincludeRIANovosti,thetelevision
channelDozhd,Vedomosti,Lenta.ru,Gazeta.ru,FirstChannel,National
GeographicRussia,andNaukaIZhizn[ScienceandLife].The
representationofsocio-politicalmediainthislistisverysignificant
anditsideologicalorientationhintsatthepolarizationofpolitical
discourseonFacebook,justlikeinsocietyasawhole.Inaddition,
thisdataprovesthatdespitetheexistenceofallthemeansfor
monitoringthenewsonthesocialnetwork,onlyasmallproportionof
usersusethistool.

Infact,asalsointhedatacitedaboveontheuseofInternetmediato
obtaininformationasawhole.Russianshavesufficientaccessto
informationontheInternet,anditisnotonlyaquestionof
information"imposed"bythestatebutalsoofotheropinionsoneach
problem.Theyalsohaveanopportunitytodiscussanynews.However,
thisisbecomingthelotonlyofaminorityinterestedinthe
socio-politicalagenda,whilemostcitizensprefertousetheInternet
forentertainmentandseekinginformationfortheirownneeds.
DespitethefactthatWesterncountriesseemtoustobesignificantly
moredevelopedfromthepointofviewofopportunitiestoconsume
informationontheInternet,itcannotbesaidthatcitizensinEurope
onthewholeusetheseopportunitiesactively,atleastdefinitelynot
inallcountries.Eurostatcitesinterestingstatisticsthatareevena
bitshocking:theorganizationisobservingasectionofpeoplein
variouscountrieswhohavenevergoneontotheInternetunderany
circumstancesintheirentirelives.Peopleagedbetween16and74are
beingstudiedandthelatestdataisfor2015.Theindicatorstypicalof
NorwayandLuxembourgseem"appropriate"tous:oneandtwopercentof
thepopulationrespectively.InsuccessfulGermanytherearealready10
percentsuchpeople,inFranceitis11percent.InPoland,Lithuania,
PortugalandItalymorethanonequarterofthepopulationisnot
personallyfamiliarwiththeInternet.InBulgariaandRomaniathereare
aroundone-thirdsuchcitizens.AndinTurkey,whichalsogotintothe
Europeansample-44percent.

Less"shocking"butstillusefulinformationisprovidedbyEurostat
withregardtowhichcountriesofEuropehavethelargestproportionof
peoplewhousetheInternet"often":thatis,atleastonceaquarter.
FromthisindicatoritcanbeclearlyseenhowtheInternethasbecome
commonplaceforNorthernEuropebutforthesouthitisnotyetan
importantpartofeverydaylife.Thisislinkedbothtothelevelof
urbanization,andtothestructureoftheeconomy,andtoeconomic
development,andtoculturalcharacteristics.Atthesametime,the
broadspreadoftheInternetenablesoldcommunicationhabitstobe
changed.Thus,Eurostatcitesdataabouthowmanypeopleusethe
Internetinvariouscountriesforcommunicatingwiththestateand
municipalpowerbodies.TheScandinaviancountrieswheremorethan50
percentofcitizensinteractwiththegovernmentonline,aswellas
NorthernandWesternEuropewheretheInternetisusedasa
communicationschannelinbothdirectionsbybetween30and40percent,
areverydifferentinthisrespecttothesouthandeast,whichare
closertoRussiaintermsofthisfigure.Ifthegovernmentistobe
believed,thenumberofcitizensregisteredontheGosuslugportalis
approaching14percent.Approximatelythesameproportionas
communicateswiththestateviatheInternetinGreece,Croatiaand
Bulgaria.TherateofgrowthintheInternetaudienceoftheGosuslug
portalisimpressivesincewewillovertakeItaly,Poland,Lithuania,
andPortugalwithregardtothisfigureinthenextfewyears.Thereis
alsoanoutsiderintermsofthisindicatorintheEU-Romania,where
onlysevenpercentofcitizenscommunicatewiththestateviatheInternet.

Nevertheless,interactingwiththestateviatheInternet,whichis
usualinthenorthofEurope,doesnotnecessarilymeanahighlevelof
interestinnewsalthoughthereisanecdotalevidencethatonlinenews
isattractingsignificantattentionamongtheaudience.Forexample,in
Germanyin2009abouthalfofallInternetusersstatedthattheyused
thewebtokeepupwithevents(datafromtheEuropeanJournalism
Centre).WhileinItalywhereInternetpenetrationisnotasmarkedas
intheNorth,thesituationin2009wasverysimilartotheRussianone:
thefirstfourplacesintherankingofpagevisitsweretakenbysearch
engines/mailservices/newsaggregators,andthentheInternetpageof
theLaRepubblicanewspaperwasinfifthplace.InNorway,oneofthe
countriesthatstartedtodeveloptheInternetearlierthanothers,by
2009theuseoftheworldwidewebtoobtainnewshadalreadyexceeded
figuresformediatypessuchasradioandnewspapers.

Printedpressandradio:Collectiveunconscious

Thesetypesofmediaarelogicallycombinedinasinglesectionsince
theyareintheprocessof"dyingout"aschannelsforobtainingnews.
Thisdoesnotmeanthattheyaregraduallyceasingtobeindemand,this
appliestoradioinparticular,buttheyareveryrarelyusedbypeople
forgettingacquaintedwiththeagenda.

Themassreadingofnewspapershasbecomeathingofthepast,andthis
hasbeenactivelyfacilitatedbythespreadoftheInternet.FromLevada
CentredatagatheredbetweenNovember2003andMarch2014,itcanbe
clearlyseenhowpeople'sinterestintheprintedpresshasfallen:the
numberofpeoplewhodonotreadnewspapersregularlyincreasedfrom59
percentto67percentandthenumberoffansofseveralpublications
almosthalved(to10percent).Typically,pollsinEuropeshowa
reductionininterestintheprintedpressfromgenerationto
generation,butinanumberofcountriestheprintedpressis
maintainingitsposition.ThusinGermany,accordingtodatafromthe
EuropeanJournalismCentre,interestintheprintedpresshasbeen
retainedandcitizensreadlocalandregionalpublicationsquiteoften.
Inprinciple,thestrongpresenceofregionalprintedmediainall
segmentsoffrequencyofpublicationisalsotypicaloftheRussianregions.

Whenchoosingwhattoreadfromnewspapersandmagazines,Russians
settleonpublicationswithbroad-basedtopics,moreoverthosethatmost
likelydonotincludepoliticalnews.Letuscomparetheratingsof
dailyandweeklynewspapersandmagazines:letustakedatathathas
beencollectedforRussiaasawholebythecompanyTNS.Thenumberof
newspaperreadersistheaveragenumberofreadersofasingleedition,
inthiscasetheaveragefortheperiodfromMaytoOctober2015.

Thedatashowedthatinthecaseofdailyandweeklynewspapers,
residentsofMoscowandStPetersburgmakeaverylargecontributionto
theaudience,andsometimestheproportionofreadersfromthetwo
capitalscomprisesmuchmorethanhalf.Thisisnotsurprisinginthe
situationwith,forexample,theMetronewspaper.Generallyspeaking,
thisnewspaperrepresentsagreatexampleofhowthemediahas
successfullyoccupieditsnichebyprovidingdiverseand"light"content
whenthereaderneedsthis.

RossiyskayaGazeta,whichisgenerallyspeakingamediaoutletofstate
importancebecauseoftheneedtopublishlegislativeacts,hasalmost
halfasmanyreaders.Weeklypublicationsarenotthatdifferentin
termsoftheirpopularityalthoughthegapbetweentheleader(Argumenty
iFakty)andthenumbertwo(KomsomolskayaPravda)ismorethana
quarterofthenumberofreadersofthelatter.

ItisworthnotingthatArgumentyiFaktyisapublicationthatfocusses
specificallyoncoveringsocio-politicalandeconomictopics,moreover
itkeepsthefocusonthepersonalconsequencesofthevariouseventsin
thecountryandtheworld.Thissame"genre"isalsoretainedinthe
paperversionofthenewspaper.Atthesametime,KomsomolskayaPravda
initsweeklyformatveryactivelyconcentratesonthe
political-economicagenda,whilethepaperweeklyversionhasmoreofan
entertainmentformat.Asaresult,KomsomolskayaPravdalosesthe
competitiontootherdailysuppliersofsocio-politicalnews(andfirst
andforemost,totelevision),andatthesametimecompetesinthe
entertainmentweeklysegmentwithsimilarpublications"witha
televisionguide".

Anotherinterestingphenomenonisthepresenceofthedailybusiness
newspaperKommersantintherankingofpublicationswiththelargest
audience.Kommersant'scompetitorsinthisnichearealongwaybehind.
Norarebusinessmagazinesandnewspaperspresenteitheramongthe
weekliesorthemonthlies.Thiscanbeexplained,meanwhile,notonlyby
readers'lackofinterestinananalysisofeventsbutalsobythefact
thatasignificantsectionoftheaudienceofthesepublicationsismore
usedtousingtheirInternetversion.

Whilethe"domination"ofentertainmentpublicationshasnotyet
completelysqueezedoutthesocio-politicalamongprintednewspapersand
magazines,thenamongtheradiostationsthisisalreadyafait
accompli.AccordingtoTNSdataforRussiaforthesecondhalfof2015,
theleadersintermsoftheaveragenumberoflistenerswere:Yevropa
Plyus,DorozhnoyeRadio,Avtoradio,RusskoyeRadio,andRetroFM.Allof
theseareexclusivelyentertainmentradiostations.Letuscomparetheir
audienceswiththoseofthesocio-politicalstations.Around11.325
millionpeoplelistentoYevropaPlyuseveryday.Mayak,RadioRussia
andVestiFMhavealmostthreetimesfewer,EkhoMoskvyfourtimes
fewer,andKomsomolskayaPravdaandBusinessFM10timesfewerormore.

EveninMoscow,despitethepresenceofEkhoMoskvy,theleadersinthe
firstfiveintermsoftheTNSdailyratings(fortheperiodof
October-December2015)werestillAvtoradio,RusskoyeRadio,Yevropa
Plyusand...RadioShanson.Allofthisconfirmsthepointthatradio
hasbecomeaspecificmediaoutletformotoristsandhascompletelylost
itspositionintheguiseofamediaoutletandhasturnedintoa
variantofamusicplaylist.Fromtimetotime,19percentof
Muscoviteslistentonewsonthemusicalradiostations-accordingto
datafromLevadaCenterforMarch2014.

Mainconclusions

Asthestatisticscitedaboveshow,theInternetisgraduallycatching
televisionup"intermsofviews",butbothnewssitesandradioand
printedpublicationsarestillalongwayfromthepopularityofnews
programmesonFirstChannelorRussia-1.Thesecretoftheirpopularity
ismostlikelynotthatcitizenslikethetopics,orstyle,orthe
presenterofthenewsbutthatviewingtelevisionontheirfavourite
channelsatacertaintimehasbecomeahabit.Inconnectionwiththis,
itcanbeassumedthatRussiansdonotpaythatmuchattentiontothe
contentofnewsprogrammes(withtheexception,ofcourse,ofthe
sensationalstories).

Atthesametime,personalcontactsplayaverybigroleasamechanism
forobtainingandinterpretinginformation:thediscussionofnewsin
thefamily,withfriends,acquaintancesandsoon.Thisisperhapsthe
simplestwayof"fencingoff"theirpictureoftheworldfrom
informationandopinionsthreatingtodestroythestereotypestheyhave
developed.Russiansminimizetheirinteractionwith"alien"information,
somethingthatcanbeseenveryclearlyfromtheexampleofvisitsto
newsresourcesontheInternet.Thewebdoesnotunitepeoplewith
differentviews,butjustemphasizestheirdifferences.

Moreover,thestatisticsfortheuseoftheInternetindicatethatnews
informationonlyinterestsacomparativelysmallnumberofcitizens-
andthisisdespitethefactthatInternetpublicationscurrently
possessgreaterfreedomofexpressionofanypositionthantelevision
does.Newshasnotbecomeaninanywaylarge-scalesubjectfor
discussiononthesocialnetworks(despitethefactthatasitseemsto
manyusersofFacebook:thisisjustinthefeedsofasmallgroupof
people)wherethereiseveryopportunitytocreatecontentand
relativelyfreeinterpretation.Themainsuppliersofnewsinthepast-
radioandtheprintedpress-havealmostcompletelylosttheir
importanceinthiscapacityhavingbecomemoreofareceptaclefor
entertainingcontent.Themainconclusionfromthis-thereisalackof
anyinterestamongtheoverwhelmingmajorityofpeopleinadetailed
studyofthenewsandobtainingatruepictureoftheworldonadaily
basis.
[returntoContents]<#n0>

#12
www.opendemocracy.net
April21,2016
Russia'sregions:federalismanditsdiscontents
CreatingtheappearanceofstabilityistheRussianpoliticalelite's
primarygoal.Yetcolonial-likeruleoverthecountry'sregions,
combinedwithalackofcivicactivity,harmstheKremlin'slegitimacy
ontheground.
ByBadmaByurchiev
BadmaByurchievwasborninKalmykiain1973,andhasworkedasa
journalistsince2003.HecurrentlyworksforKavpolit,wherehecovers
DagestanandKalmykia.HehaspreviouslyworkedforBolshoyKavkazand
CaucasianKnot.

SinceVladimirPutin'srisetopowerin1999,theRussianauthorities
haverespondedtoanythreat,whetherrealorimagined,withrepressive
legislation.

Thehistoryofthepowerverticalisthusoneofthemethodical
restrictionofcitizen'srightsandfreedoms.
Meanwhile,Russia'sover-centralisedstateisincreasinglyisolating
itselffromthe"multinationalpeopleoftheRussianFederation",which
is,astheConstitutionstates,thesolesourceofauthorityinthecountry.

Thus,Russia'spoliticalelitesarenotonlylosingtheirso-called
"connectionwiththeland",buterodingpopularfaithintheelite's
legitimacyasrulers.

That'sbecauseinRussiatoday,relationsbetweenthecentreandthe
regionsarereminiscentmoreofanimperialmetropolisanditscolonies.
TheauthoritiesseeRussiaasanever-endingsourceofnaturalandhuman
resources.

Theelitesusurptheincomederivedfromtheseresourcesascolonisers:
themajorityofthepopulationarepaidenoughjusttosurvive.Andif
you'redissatisfied,there'salwaysanappropriatechargetobefoundin
theCriminalCode.

Self-determinationanddesecration

Theendof2015sawElista,thecapitalofKalmykia,hostacongressof
theKalmykianpeople.Forarepublicofthissize,thecongresswas
large.Butneithernationalmedia,northelocalofficialpresscovered
thiseventinanyway.

Perhapsthelackofcoveragewasamistake.

Theforum's200delegatesendedupvotingforaresolutionthatledwith
thedemandforanewconstitutionfortherepublic,onethatwould
reflectthe"inviolablerightoftheOirat-Kalmykpeopletodecidetheir
ownfate."Thisisimportant,becausewhenKalmykiafirstbecamea
subjectoftheRussianFederation,itslegislaturedidnotmention
self-determination-unlikethelegislaturesofothernationalrepublics
thatjoinedRussiaafterthefalloftheUSSR.

KalmykiareturnedtonationalnewsatthestartofApril2016whenan
athletefromneighbouringDagestanwasforcedtoapologisepubliclyfor
desecratingastatueoftheBuddha.

ThesestoriesrevealtheRussianmedia'spriorities.Russianviewers
findinterethnicconflictsfarmoreinterestingthanpeople'sattempts
toself-organiseanddefendtheirrights.

Theeventsthemselvesarealsorevealing.

TheKalmykpeople'scongressmayhavebeenrepresentative,butitwas
thesecondincident-whenanoffending"outsider"hadtobepunished-
thatturnedouttobemorepowerfulinbringingpeopletogether.

"Peopleonlyreacttostrong,directsourcesofdispleasure.However,
whenit'sacaseofotherimportantmatters,noonecomesoutto
protest,"aKalmykbloggercomplained,speakingofthelocal
population'spreference"tonotreacttotheauthoritiesatall"."After
all,youcanboilafrogaliveifyouraisethetemperatureinapan
slowly-itwon'tjumpout."

Theblogger'smetaphormightbeabitheavy-handed,butitreflectsthe
relationshipbetweenRussia'sauthoritiesandthepublicalltoowell.
Thereisonethingmissingfromthismetaphor,though:theabilityto
verygraduallyraisethetemperatureisagoodonetohaveifyou'rea
cook-butnotwhenyou'rerunningacountry.

Beneaththesurface

AweekbeforetheincidentinKalmykia'scapitalElista,IgorBarinov,
theheadofRussia'sFederalNationalitiesAgency(FADN),declaredthat
ethnicandreligioustensionsinthecountrywerelikelytoflareup.

AttheStateDuma'sQuestionTimeon23March,Barinovstatedthat,
"Nationalconflictsaredirectlyconnectedtoeconomicproblemsandthe
ineffectivenessoftheauthorities."

AccordingtoBarinov,certainregionsofRussiaareseeing"radicalised
religiousstructuresjoinwiththenon-systemicoppositiontocriticise
thestate".

"Forthemeantime,"Barinovsaid,"thiscriticismismainlyconnected
tosocialwelfareissues,housing,utilitiesandecology".Bythetime
theparliamentaryelectioncampaignstarts,though,thiscriticismwill
takeona"political,nationalandreligiousovertone",hewarned.

BarinovthuscalledonRussia'sregionsto"bereadytoreact
accordingly"andproposedlegislationforextrajudicialblockingof
websitesthat"donotformallycomeunderthedefinitionof'callsto
massdisorder',butthatfurtherescalateinterethnicandinterfaith
conflicts."

Thus,atoppublicofficialconfirmedthatpotentialmobilisationson
ethnicorreligiousgroundswillbedirectlyconnectedtoeconomic
problemsandthestate'slackofresponse-butchosetoampupRussia's
anti-extremismlegislationinsteadoftacklingtherootsoftheproblem.

Barinov'sactionplanisnotsurprising.Thestateisnotinvolvedin
solvingtheproblemsofhundredsofdifferentethnicgroupsinRussia.
Instead,theKremlinisbusycreatingtheappearanceofstability.In
particular,itiscreatingtherightconditionsforlocalauthoritiesto
deploythe"administrativeresources"atthisyear'selections,andthus
forestallanyunexpected(read:unpleasant)resultsforMoscow.

Barinovdoesn'thidethefactthatoneofhisministry'smaintasksis
to"buildapowerverticalintheregions".Indeed,theFADNbelieves
that"unifyingtheapproachtonationalityissuesinallregions"isan
importantstepinthisdirection.

Acolonisingpoliticalmentality

Itgoeswithoutsayingthat,intheseconditions,agenuinefederal
politicalstructurecannotexist.

AsarecentcourtdecisionfromKhanty-Mansiiskshows,theword
"federalisation"isnowbeingusedsynonymouslywith"stirringup
interfaithantagonism","changingthesystemof
administrative-territorialmanagement","separatism"and"subvertingthe
constitutionalorder".

Thefederalauthorities'colonisingmentalityisthusheavilyregulating
andevencriminalisinganysmallattemptsatself-determination.

InMarch,theMinistryofJusticedeclaredtheBataniFoundation,which
isdedicatedtosupportingindigenouspeoplesinRussia'snorth,Siberia
andtheFarEast,a"foreignagent".

AccordingtoPavelSulyandziga,Batani'schairman,therootofthe
conflictwiththebureaucracycomesdowntoindigenouspeoples'rights
totraditionalhuntinggrounds,fishingareasandterritoryforgrazing
theiranimals.

Suchconflictshaveledtoariseinthenumberofcriminalcasesopened
againstindigenouspeopleintheKhanty-Mansiautonomousregion.Rights
activistsstatethatmostresourcecompaniesprefernottonegotiate
withindigenousrepresentativesanymore,butactviathemostpowerful
stateministries.

NewsalongthisthemeregularlyappearsintheRussianpress.

Forexample-avillageleaderfromPrimorskykraireportedonthe
terriblesituationinRussia'sFarEastattheMoscowEconomicForumin
Marchofthisyear.

Adayafterthereport,newsbrokeofhowKursk'sregionalcouncil
publiclyobstructedOlgaLi,alocalcouncilwomanandnewspapereditor.
Li'ssharplycriticalvideoaddresstoPutin,whichwasdedicatedbyand
largetoregionalpolitics,hasnowresultedinacriminalcasefor
slander.

Nomassprotestsinsight

ButwhatisreallyhappeninginRussia'sregions?Canwetalkaboutany
signsofanti-colonialresistance?

Well,whileDumadeputieshavebeguntotalkaboutthepossibilityofa
"revolutionarysituation"inresponsetothegrowinggapbetween
Russia'srichandpoor,expertssuchasDenisVolkovandNatalia
Zubarevichagreethatwe'reunlikelytoseeanoutbreakofmassprotest
activityanytimesoon.

Withnationaltelevisionnetworksfirmlyundercontrol,theRussian
governmentismanagingtomaintainorder.Theoppositionisyettooffer
analternativeagendaonpoliticalorsocialissuesthatwouldattracta
significantsectionofthepopulation.Andtherisksassociatedwith
protestaresohigh,it'ssimplerjustadapttothefallingliving
standardsthanfightforabetterfuture.

Thatsaid,Zubarevich,theauthorofthe"FourRussias"concept,
believesthatRussia'sregionsare,byandlarge,conservative,anda
bulwarkofsupportforthecurrentregime.

ForZubarevich,theonlyexceptionsarethe"underdeveloped"regions
withamorevolatilepoliticalatmosphere,suchastheNorthCaucasus
andsouthernSiberia,wherepossiblefuturescenariosevenincludestate
violenceunleashedagainstthepopulace.

TheNorthCaucasus,inparticular,iswitnessingagrowingideological
dividebetweenstateandsociety,thoughregionalexpertsvaryintheir
estimationsofthethreatitmaypose.

AccordingtoNikolaiSilaevoftheCenteroftheProblemsofthe
CaucasusandRegionalSecurity,thethreatofnationalismdoesn'treally
workasatoolofpublicpoliticsinRussia.

"Thesingleideologicalbaseformovementsthatthreatenanopen
fragmentationofthestatecouldbecomepoliticalIslam,"writesSilaev.
However,hecontinuestosaythat"politicalIslamhasnorealistic
modelofthestateorclearspatialboundaries."Thiskindofpolitical
communitywillcometoformanetworked"parallelworld",onethatwill
bothfightthestateandtrytofindformsofintegration.

DenisSokolovislessoptimistic.Asheseesit,"theideologyofthe
secularstatehascompletelylosttoIslamintheeastoftheNorth
Caucasusduetoitsproblemswiththecourtsandsocialmobility".

Sokolovbelievesthat2016willsee"aconfrontationbetweenthe
securityservicesandasignificantnumberofMuslimslivinginthe
NorthCaucasusrisetothefore".

Societycompensatesforfailuresofthestate

SokolovisthefirstspecialistontheCaucasustoinvestigatethe
curiousnewsstoriescomingoutofDagestan.Here,jamaats(village
communities)havestartedtopaymedicalprofessionalstovisittheir
villagesattheirownexpense(asarule,thesevisitingdoctorsare
kinsmenwho'vebeenworkinginthebigcities.)Thisturnedouttobe
successful,andnowthispracticehasextendedtoteachingstaff.

Societyhasthusmadeheadwayinanareawherethestatehasfailedin
spiteofitsmulti-billionroubleprojects.Takingresponsibilityfor
theirowninfrastructure,villagershavesetupqualitymedicineand
educationforthemselves,atthesametimeaddressinganoftenemotional
issue-bringingbacktheirkintothemountains.
Ofcourse,we'retalkingaboutamaximumoftenvillageshere.Thisisa
localsuccessevenforDagestan.Butnothingisstoppingother
communitiesfromtryingthisout.

Still,themostimportantthinghereishowthisproblemisbeing
solved.Ifinvitingdoctorsisamatterofsurvival(itwaspromptedby
arisingdeathrate,includingofpatientsduringsimpleoperations),
thenfindinggoodteachersisasignalthateducationisindemand,an
investmentinlong-termdevelopment.

Anineffectivestatecanonlywelcometheseinitiatives-thestory
aboutDagestanwasshownonfederaltelevision.

Butifyoutakeintotheaccountthefactthatsecularideologyis
losingouttoIslaminDagestan,thenwecanassumethatsomething
biggerisbehindthesedevelopments.PerhapsitiswhatHannahArendt
describedastheelite'stemptationtosubstituteviolenceforpower
whenitbeginstoslipfromtheirgrasp.

Arendt'sdiagnosisisalltooreminiscentofthemodernRussian
Federation.Putin'sconceptsofthe"RussianWorld"andpatriotismas
theonlypossiblenationalideaarecloselyintertwinedwithhow
Russia'slawonseparatismandthelawonforeignagentsareapplied-
and,moreoftenthatnot,withanti-extremistandanti-terrorist
legislation.

Thewaytheyareappliedisevidenceofafull-blowncrisisinRussian
domesticpolicies.

Frustrationthatturnstoapathy

Socialmediaisanaptreflectionofthemoodofordinarypeople.Take
thisrecentquestionfromauserinaVKontaktegroupinKalmykia:"Can
youpointtoanypositiveresultsoftheheadofKalmykiaAlexeiOrlov,
who'sruledtherepublicforsixyearsnow?"

"Icanonlyseeone,"thesameuserstates,"Peopleintheregionsdon't
relyontheauthorities.Theysolvetheirproblemsthemselves."

Meanwhile,abloggerfromNorthOssetiaupdateshisstatus:"I'vehad
enough.Thehassle,intrigue,politics,money(anditsabsence),the
idiocyinsideandoutsidethesystem...Peoplehavehadtheirpriorities
wrongfortoolong."

Everyday,mynewsfeedisfullofthesekindsofposts.Apathyandthe
realisationthatyoucan'texpectanythingfromtheauthoritiesarethe
mainmotifsofdiscussionsonRussiasocialmedia.

Atthecoreofthissenseofemptiness,thisideologicalvacuumthat
becameobviousafterthefalloftheSovietUnion,liesnothingbuta
longingforthehomeland.Noonefeelsathomehere:neitherethnic
minorities,whoexperiencediscriminationduetotheirethnicity,nor
RussianSlavs,outragedatthecorruptionofpublicofficialsandthe
courtswillingtoaverttheirgazewhenso-called"peoplefromoutof
town"commitcrimes.

EmilPain,aprominentpoliticalscientistandethnographer,recently
spokeofRussiaas"acountrywithoutasociety,acountrywithouta
nation".

Yetthetransformationofapopulationintoanationisnotataskfor
thestate.Rulingelitesaremoreinterestedinsubjectsthancitizens.
Anationemergeswhenpeoplearereadytofightfortheirownrights.

It'seasierfornationalrepublicstoformacommonagendaonthis
issue.AlthoughthefactthatacongressofKalmykpeople,ratherthan
peoples,wasrecentlyheldsuggeststhattheideologyofethnic,rather
thancivicnationalism,iswhatbroughtpeopletogether.

MultiethnicDagestancould,inprinciple,overcomethesenarrowborders.
Whilelocalnationalismdividessociety,Islamoffersaplatformfor
consolidationinthefuture-toformthepoliticalnationofDagestan.
Butheretheauthoritieshavesuccessfullymaintainedtheartificial
confrontationbetween"traditional"and"non-traditional"Muslimsfora
longtime.

Inanover-centralisedpoliticalsystem,there'slittlepointtalkingof
society'schancetotakebackthestateinasingleregion.The
LeviathanthatisthestatewillreacttowhatArendtdescribedasthe
"slippingawayofpower"withanintensivebuild-upofthepower
ministries,whichremaincapableenoughtopreventanyattemptto
monopolisethecentre.

GiventhatPutin'snewNationalGuardissubordinateonlytotheheadof
state,wecanseehowtheverticalseesthesolutiontothenational
question.

Butistheresomethingthatwillpromptthepopulationtofightfor
theirrightsandthuscreateanationalongalternative,democratic
lines?LiahGreenfield,ascholarofnationalisms,believesthatanew
eliteisneededforthiskindoffuture-anelitethatwillfightnot
foritsownpower,butforthepeople'srespect,giventheconnection
betweenindividualdignityandnationalidentity

Unfortunately,astheKalmykpeople'scongressinElistashows,people
arealwaysreadyto"forceotherstorespectthem"onalocallevel,but
arefarlessreadytodefendtheirdignitywhenitcomestothe
arbitraryruleofpublicofficialsandlawenforcement.

Intoday'sRussia,it'smorerealistictowaitforthestatetoreach
thefinalstageofexhaustionandletpowerslipfromitsgrasp.Of
course,thenwe'llhavetodealwiththesamequestions:youcan'tbuild
anationwithoutcivicactivity.
[returntoContents]<#n0>

#13
TheNewYorkReviewofBooks
April19,2016
Trump'sPutinFantasy
ByTimothySnyder
TimothySnyderistheHousumProfessorofHistoryatYale.

FewforeignleadersseementhusiasticabouttheprospectofaDonald
Trumppresidency.Butthereisonewhoshouldbepleased:Vladimir
Putin.OrsoTrumpseemstothink.MostprominentRepublicanscriticize
PresidentObamaforreactingtoofeeblytoRussiandomesticoppression,
theRussianinvasionofsouthernandsoutheasternUkraine,andRussia's
growingthreattoNATOinEasternEurope.Trump,ontheotherhand,has
praisedPutin's"strong"leadershipathome,calledNATO"obsoleteand
expensive,"andmadeapointofdescribinghisfriendshipwith
Putin-thoughitseemstobeentirelyimaginary.

Fromthebeginningofhiscandidacylastsummer,Trumphasrepeatedly
claimedthathewould"getalongverywellwithVladimirPutin."Last
fall,afterhewasinterviewedonthesamesegmentof60Minutesas
Putin,hewarmlyreferredtotheexperienceofbeing"stablemates"as
"goingwell."Thiswasstrikinglyatoddswithreality,sinceTrumpwas
intheUSandPutininRussiaduringtheinterviews,andthetwomendid
notinfactmeet.

Moreextraordinarystill,Trumphasindicated,inhisselectionlast
monthofCarterPageasaforeignpolicyadviser,thatAmericanpolicy
toEuropewillbeguidedbyRussianinterests.Page,heretoforeknownas
anadvisertoRussia'sstategascompany,hasbeenamongtheprominent
AmericansspreadingRussianpropagandaaboutUkraine'srevolutionin
2014andtheRussianinvasionthatfollowed.Inhiswritingshehas
questionedUkraine'sstatusasanindependentstate,whichisprecisely
thelinethatMoscowtooktojustifyitsinvasion.He
maintains-preposterously-thatUkraineislikeQuebecinsideaRussia
thatislikeCanada.QuebecisaprovinceandUkraineisacountry.He
hasreferredtoRussia'sannexationofUkraine'sCrimeanpeninsula,a
signalviolationofinternationallaw,asthe"so-calledannexation."

ItisnothardtoseewhyTrumpmightchoosePutinashisfantasy
friend.PutinistherealworldversionofthepersonTrumppretendsto
beontelevision.Trump'sfinancialsuccess(suchasitis)hasbeenas
aNewYorkrealestatespeculator,aworldofprivatedeal-makingthat
canseemroughandtough-untilyoucompareittotheRussiaofthe1990s
thatultimatelyproducedthePutinregime.Trumppresentshimselfasthe
makerofafinancialempirewhoiswillingtobreakalltherules,
whereasthatiswhatPutininfactis.ThusfarTrumpcanonlyverbally
abusehisopponentsatrallies,whereasPutin'sopponentsare
assassinated.ThusfarTrumpcanonlyhavehiscampaignmanagerroughup
journalistshedoesn'tlike.InRussiasomeofthebestjournalistsare
infactmurdered.

PresidentPutin,whoisanintelligentandpenetratingjudgeofmen,
especiallymenwithmasculinityissues,hasquicklydrawnthecorrect
conclusion.Inthepasthehasdonewellforhimselfbyrecruitingamong
politicianswhoexhibitgreatervanitythandecency,suchasSilvio
BerlusconiandGerhardSchrder.ThepremiseofRussianforeignpolicy
totheWestisthattheruleoflawisonebigjokethepracticeof
RussianforeignpolicyistofindprominentpeopleintheWestwho
agree.MoscowhasfoundsuchpeoplethroughoutEuropeuntiltheriseof
TrumptheideaofanAmericanwhowouldvolunteertobeaKremlinclient
wouldhaveseemedunlikely.Trumprepresentsanunprecedentedstandard
ofAmericanservility,andshouldthereforebecultivatedasafuture
Russianclient.

TrumpcorrectlysaysthatPutinrespectsstrength.ButofcoursePutin
prefersweakness,whichiswhatTrumpoffers.AsPutinunderstands
perfectlywell,thepresidentoftheUnitedStateshasstandingin
Russia,andenjoysfarsuperiorpowertothepresidentofRussia,only
insofarasheorshemobilizesthemoralandpoliticalresourcesofa
rule-of-lawstate.ItispreciselyTrump'sposeofstrengththatreveals
hiscrucialvulnerability.AsanyonefamiliarwithRussianpolitics
understands,anAmericanpresidentwhoshunsallianceswithfellow
democracies,praisesdictators,andprefers"deals"totheruleoflaw
wouldbeaveryeasymarkinMoscow.ItisunclearhowmuchmoneyTrump
has,butitisnotenoughtomatterinRussia.Ifhekeepsuphispose
asthetoughbillionaire,hewillbeflatteredbytheRussianmedia,
scornedbythosewhomatterinRussia,andtheneasilycrushedbymen
farricherandsmarterthanhe.

PutinhasbeenaccordinglycircumspectinhisreturnofTrump'swooing.
ForhimTrumpisasmallmanwhomightgaingreatpower.Thetrickisto
manipulatethesmallmanandtherebyneutralizethegreatpower.Inhis
annualpressconferencelastDecember,afterhearingsixmonthsof
praisefromTrump,PutinsaidthathewelcomedTrump'sideaofplacing
US-Russianrelationsonamoresolidbasis,andcharacterizedTrumpas
"flamboyant,talented,withoutadoubt."Itishardtomissthe
ambiguityof"flamboyant,"butTrumpchosetomissit.

ThenextdayTrumpseemedpleased.Perhapshavingbeenmisadvisedabout
whatPutinactuallysaid,Trumpsaidthat,"Whenpeoplecallyou
brilliantit'salwaysgood."Aftersuggestingthatkillingjournalists
wasnormal,heconcludedwarmlythat"I'vealwaysfeltfineaboutPutin,
Ithinkthat,youknow,he'sastrongleader,he'sapowerfulleader,
he'srepresentedhiscountry."Notlongafterthat,TrumpdefendedPutin
fromtheofficialBritishinquiryintotheassassinationofAlexander
Litvinenko.Trump'sreasoningwasthatPutin"saidhedidn'tdoit."In
MarchTrumpsaidthatPutinwasastrongerleaderthanthepresidentof
theUnitedStates.ForacrumbofpraisefromPutin,Trumphaspresented
criminalityasnormalandsoldouthisownheadofstate.

LetusimaginethefirstfewweeksofaTrumpadministration.Mostof
hisdomesticagendawillquicklyproveillegal,oratleastvery
complicatedtoimplement.Heisnotamanwhohasdisplayedmuch
patienceformanagement.Itseemsverylikelythathewouldquicklyturn
abroadforthatsurgeofapprovalthatheseemstofindsopleasurable.
Andtherewouldbenoeasierwaytogainsuchafeelingthancurrying
favorwithPutin.Itissomucheasiertoignoretraditionalalliesthan
tocultivatethem,andsomucheasiertoignoreaggressionthanto
maintainorder.ThelouchestylethatTrumpseemslikelytobringto
Americanforeignpolicyisallhewillneedtogarnerpraisefromthe
manheadmires.GivenwhatTrumphasdonethusfar,undernostressand
withlittleencouragement,itisterrifyingtocontemplatewhathewould
doasafrustratedAmericanpresidentlookingforlove.

EvenasPutincarefullycultivatesafutureclient,theRussian
population(aloneinthedevelopedworld)prefersTrumptoClinton,and
Russianelitesrevealtheirexcitementattheprospectofatame
America.Itisunusual,ofcourse,forRussianorotherpublicfigures
totakesidesinAmericanelections.Prudenceusuallyoverrides
preferenceeventhemostwillfulauthoritariansandmediafigures
usuallyhedgetheirbets,knowingthatendorsingalosingcandidatecan
bringeightyearsofbadluckwhileendorsingtheeventualwinnermay
bringverylittle.Inthisparticularelectioncycle,however,Russian
politiciansareinanunusualsituation.HillaryClintonhasbeenthe
targetofsuchcriticismfromRussiaanditscurrentpresidentthatit
isimpossibletocreatetheimpressionofevenhandedness.InDecember
2011,VladimirPutinpersonally(andabsurdly)blamedClinton,thenUS
secretaryofstate,forgivinga"signal"thatpromptedRussiansto
protestfakedparliamentaryelections.

Onceliberatedfromthenormalrulesofthegame,Russianpoliticians
havebeenabletogivevoicetowhatseemslikeheartfeltsympathyfor
Trump.VasilyLikhachev,aCommunistintheRussianparliament,
explicitlyexpressedhispreferenceforTrumpoverClinton.Dmitry
Kiselev,theRussiantalkshowstarbestknownintheWestforreminding
usthatRussiancanturntheUSinto"radioactiveash"andforadvising
thattheheartsofgaysbeburnedaftertheirdeaths,gushesthat"anew
starisrising-Trump."KonstantinRykov,amemberofPutin'sUnited
Russiapartyandaleadingmediamanager,opinesthatTrumpis"thevery
embodimentoftheAmericandream."AlekseiPushkov,thechairmanofthe
Russianparliament'sinternationalaffairscommittee,tweetsadmiringly
aboutTrumponaregularbasis.Mostrevealingly,hewrotethatTrump
"canleadtheWesternlocomotiverightofftherails."

TheexplicitendorsementofTrumpbyAleksandrDugin,theleading
RussianfascistideologueandaveryimportantmediapresenceinRussia,
isparticularlyalarming.ThepremiseofDugin's"Eurasian"movementis
thatRussiaandtheWestareartificiallyseparatedbyenlightenedideas
oftheruleoflawandindividualrights.OnceleadersoftheWest
understandthattheseareartificial(Jewish)implantations,theycan
joinRussiaintheembraceoffascism.Duginaccordinglypraisesthe
Americanpeople,callinguponthemtoshedtheir"oligarchic"elitesand
returntotheirtrue(fascist)values.IreadDugin'suseof
"oligarchic"tomean"Jewish"-asuspicionconfirmedbyDugin'sreaction
toanactualoligarchwhoenjoysthebackingofAmericanneo-Nazis:
"TrumpisthevoiceoftherealrightwinginAmerica,"hewrites."Vote
forTrump!"

TheRussianexpectationisthataTrumpvictorywouldberuinousfor
Americanpower,andthatsuchpowerasremainswillbedeployedto
supportRussianinterests.Trump'sfantasyfriendshipwithPutinisone
morereasontoexpectthataTrumpvictorywouldalsobedisastrousfor
Americanvaluesandinstitutions.Putincanbeexpected,ifthetwomen
actuallymeetaspresidents,toflatterTrump'svanityandurgehim
onwardtowardafullassaultontheConstitution.Russiaisina
downwardspiralofitsownwhatAmericansmustconsidernowisaweak
presidentialcandidatewhowantstofollowPutin'scharmwhereitleads,
whichmostlikelymeansstraighttothebottom.
[returntoContents]<#n0>

#14
DeutscheWelle
April21,2016
HowNigeriangirlsareforcedintoprostitutioninRussia
ByEmmaBurrows

CriminalsappeartobetakingadvantageofRussia'sstudentvisasystem
toforcegirlsintoprostitution.DW'sEmmaBurrowshasbeen
investigatinghowNigerianscomeforuniversityanddisappearintothe
sextrade.

TwoyearsagoawomancametoBlessingOsakwe'shometowninthesouthof
NigeriaandtoldtheyoungwomantherewasworkforherinRussia.She
toldOsakweshewouldhaveajobinasupermarket,andthatitwould
taketheherjustfiveorsixmonthstoearnthemoneytoreimbursethe
costsofthevisaandthejourneytoRussia.Afterpayingbackthe
$40,000,Osakwecouldkeepallthemoneyshemade,thewomansaid.

Osakwesaidherparentsareverypoorandthattheideaofgoingto
Russiatohelpthemandtosavemoneyforhereducationappealedtoher.
Sheagreed.
Onlywhenshearrived,didshediscovereverythingthewomanhadsaid
wasalie.

Therewasnosupermarketjob.Instead,OsakwetoldDW,shewasforcedto
workasaprostitute.

ShewasdrivenaroundMoscowtohavesexwithmen.Onenight,shewas
takentoanapartmentbuildingwhereonemanwasapparentlywaitingfor
her.Whenshegotinside,shediscoveredtherewereeightmen.Shewas
forcedtosleepwithallofthem,shesaid.Whensherefusedtohavesex
withoutacondom,theytookbackthemoneytheyhadpaidandbeatand
molestedher,shesaid.

Thentheythrewherfromthefourthfloorofthebuilding.

Osakwebrokeherhipwhenshehittheground.Shespenttwo-dayson
life-supportinthehospitaluntilhertreatmentwasstoppedbecause,
shesaid,shecouldnotaffordtopay.Shenowcannotwalkproperlyand
isconfinedtoawheelchair.

Traffickedonstudentvisas

Osakwe'sstoryisnotuncommon,saidKennyKehinde,whoworkswith
severalMoscowNGOsfocusedonpreventinghumantrafficking.Around
2,000-3,000Nigeriangirls-manyfrompoor,remotevillages-are
broughttoRussiaeveryyearforsexwork,hesaid.

"Thisisinternationalmodern-dayslavery,wherethegirlsarebrought
herewiththehelpofsomeRussiangovernmentofficials,someNigerian
authoritiesandso-called'madams'[pimps]whoexploitthesegirlsfor
sexinRussia,"saidKehinde.

MostofthegirlsKehindedealtwithhadcometoRussiaonstudent
visas,hesaid.

Suchvisasarenoteasytoobtainasuniversitiesmustprovide
supportingmaterialfortheapplications.

UsmanGafai,headofmissionattheNigerianEmbassyinMoscow,saidhe,
too,wasawareofNigeriansbeingtraffickedforsextoRussia.

"Tenyearsago,itwasnotsuchahugeproblemasthis,"hetoldDW.
"Thoseinvolvedareaninternationalcartel.Onadailybasistheyare
growingandmakingmoneyoutofit."

TheRussiangovernmentneededto"carryoutproperscrutinyofvisa
applicantsbackinNigeria,"Gafaisaid."ThemajoritycometoRussiaon
astudentvisa,andIwanttoseemorescrutinyofthat."

Kehindesaidilliterateteenagerswerebeingtrafficked.

"Howcanyoubringagirlof14-or15-yearoldtostudyina
university,whenshecannotevenreadandwrite?"heasked.
Migrationviolations

DWwasabletoexaminepassportsandmigrationdocumentsbelongingto
sixNigeriangirls,includingBlessingOsakwe,thatshowedtheyhad
arrivedinRussiaonstudentvisas.

TheSmolnyInstituteoftheRussianAcademyofEducationinSaint
PetersburgtoldDWithadissuedvisasupportdocumentsin2014for
OsakwetostudyaRussian-languagecourseinpreparationforentering
university.However,inanemailedstatementtoDW,theuniversity's
rector,GaidarImanov,saidsheneverarrivedattheinstitute,andthe
universityhadnoknowledgeofwhethershehadenteredthecountry.

Similarly,theBalticHumanitarianInstitute,anotherSt.Petersburg
university,confirmedviaemailithadissueddocumentstoawould-be
studentfromNigeriawhohadnevermadecontacttobeginhercoursein
Russia.

Bothuniversitiesrejectedthenotionthattheirstaffmayhavebeen
paidtoprovidedocumentstostudentswhowerenotgenuineortotraffic
girlstoRussiaforsex,callingtheallegation"fiction"and
"absolutelybaseless."

TheRussianMinistryforForeignAffairs,whoseembassiesissuevisas,
toldDWinawrittenstatementthatallstudentsinNigeriaundergoan
interview"withoutfail."Italsosaidborderofficialsdonotallow
entryintothecountrywithoutconfirmationfromtheuniversitywhere
theyareduetostudy.Theministrysaidit"wantedtoemphasize"that
individualsare"personallyresponsibleforadheringtomigration
legislation."

Russia'sFederalMigrationServicetoldDWthatit"regularlychecks"
formigrationviolationsandthatimmigrationlawhadbeenbrokenin
morethan325,000casesinthefirsttwomonthsof2016.Despiteseveral
requests,theagencydidnotexplainhowBlessingOsakwe-andgirls
likeher-couldhaveenteredRussiaonstudentvisasandapparently
disappearedfromauthorities'sightforyearsintothesextrade.

Tacklingtrafficking

Despitelegislationmeanttopreventhumantrafficking,Russiahasnot
shownafullcommitmenttotacklingtheproblem,saidAndrewBograndof
theNGODemocracyInternational.

"Prosecution,althoughexistent,isverylimited,"hesaid."More
alarming,accordingtoRussia'sfewwomen'srightsNGOs,isthealmost
completelackofshelterspaceforwomenwhoarevictimsofsex
traffickingordomesticviolence.

"Corruptionandtraffickingareinextricablylinked-andRussiafares
poorlyinmostcorruptionindexes,"hecontinued."Aslongasthestate
continuestoturnablindeyetotheproblemofcorruption,trafficking
willflourish."

'Stayhome'

BlessingOsakwerecentlyreturnedtoNigeriaandhopestoresumeher
studies.ButhertimeinRussiahaschangedherlifeforever.Itremains
unclearwhethershewillbeabletowalkproperlyagain.

ShehasamessageforotherNigeriangirlswhoareofferedjobsabroad:
"Staybackhome,learntowork.Eventhoughthepayissmall,itismuch
betterthancomingheretosufferorloseyourlife."
[returntoContents]<#n0>

#15
TheGuardian(UK)
April20,2016
Russia's'coldturkey'approachhighlightsglobaldivideoverdrug
treatmentatUN
Russianrepresentativesuggestsmethadoneandheroinarethe'same
narcoticdrug'asoutsideexpertscondemncountry'stakeontreatment:
'They'retheworldleaderindenyingthescience'
ByJessicaGlenzainNewYork
JessicaGlenzaisareporterattheGuardianUS

AsinternationalleadersdebatedglobaldruglawattheUnitedNations,
abizarrepanelonherointreatmentshowedjusthowdividedcountries
areoverhowtotreataddicts.

Thepanel,sponsoredbytheRussianFederation,beganwithan
internationalgroupofscientistsanddiplomatsexplainingthe
importanceofevidence-baseddrugtreatment,beforeaRussiandoctor
veeredintoaddictionsciencedenialism.

"Weprefertotreatpeopleinadrug-freesetting,"DrOxanaGuseva,a
medicalrepresentativeoftheRussianFederation,toldtheGuardian
afterward,"becausemethadoneisthesamenarcoticdrugasheroin."

InRussia,heroinaddictsaregiven"coldturkey"detoxification
treatmentusingthemedicationNaltrexone,whichblocksopioidreceptors
inthebrain.Typically,thismedicationisusedtostopoverdoses.

Then,Gusevasaid,Russianaddictsaregivensocialtherapyand
educationasasubstituteforconventionalopioidreplacementtherapies,
suchasmethadoneclinics,whicharecommonintheUnitedStates.

Whilepartofthedoctor'sstatementistrue-methadoneandheroinare
bothnarcoticpaintreatments-addictiontreatmentthatusesmethadone
inplaceofotheropioidsisdeliveredtothebodyinamuchdifferentway.

First,methadoneclinicsprovideoraldoses,meaningthatthebody
processesthedrugmoreslowlythanintravenousheroin.Thatremovesone
ofthemostaddictivecharacteristicsofheroin-therush.Methadone
alsostaysinthebodyforalongerperiodoftime.Heroinandopioid
painkillerssuchasOxycontinlasthours,butmethadonecanhaveeffects
fordays.

Treatmentthatusesdrugssuchasmethadone,called"replacement
therapies",preventformeraddictsfromgoingthroughpainful
withdrawals.Buttheyalsoaddressadisturbingaspectofaddiction-
howitchangesthebrain'sphysiologylong-termtoaccommodateneural
pathwaysforcravingandcompulsivedrug-seeking.

America'stopaddictionexpert,DrNoraVolkow,directoroftheNational
InstitutesofHealthonDrugAbuse,disputedtheRussiandoctor's
assertions.

"Thedataisshowingafterchronictreatment,someofthesepatients
[addictedtoopiates]areabletoslowlytaperoffthismedication,"
Volkow,referringtotherapiessuchasmethadone.However,shesaid,
"therealityisthatinsomeinstanceswejustcannotachieve[full
sobriety]-andit'snotanydifferentthansomeonewhohasdiabetes.

"Isitthatwearesubstitutingandmaking[diabetics]dependenton
insulin?"sheaskedrhetorically."Perhapswecouldsaythat,butwe
couldalsosayit'sawayforthemtohaveaperfectlynormallife."

ThepanelwaspartofthefirstUNsummitondruglawin18years,known
asUngass,ortheUnitedNationsGeneralAssemblySpecialSession.

Thethree-daysummitwasmeanttoaddressthe"globaldrugproblem"and
includedebateonhowinternationalauthoritiesshouldmovetreaties
forwardtoaddressdrugabuseasapublichealthissue.However,most
debateontheagreementadoptedtookplaceinViennainMarch,withouta
majorityofmemberstates,andthe"outcomedocument",astheagreement
isknown,wasadoptedimmediatelyafterthesessionopened.

Thedocument'simmediateadoptionlaidbarejusthowdividedthe
internationalcommunityisontheissueofdrugabuse.Indonesiacalled
thedeathpenaltyan"importantcomponent"ofthecountry'sdrugcontrol
policy,whileliberalstatessuchasUruguay,ColombiaandNorway
expresseddismaythattheUNfailedtocondemnsuchexecutions.

"Norwayintendstobeaclearvoiceforamoreprogressiveapproach,"
thenation'sdelegatetoldtheGeneralAssemblyonTuesday.

"It'stooironicforRussiatobethesponsoroftheevent,"saidDaniel
Wolfe,directoroftheInternationalHarmReductionProgramfortheOpen
SocietyFoundations."They'retheworldleaderindenyingthescience."

RussiandrugtreatmentmethodswererecentlytestedinCrimea,afterthe
countryannexedtheformerUkrainianregion.

Around800formerheroinaddictstherewerecutofffromreplacement
therapy,roughly100ofwhomhavedied,accordingtoadvocacygroupsand
theUN'sspecialenvoyMichelKazatchkine.

ManyhaveblamedRussia'sbanontreatmentsuchasmethadoneandlackof
cleansyringeprogramsforanuptickinnewHIVinfectionsevenas
infectionratesinotherareasofEuropefall.

"It'sreallystupid,"saidPavloSkala,associatedirectorforthe
AllianceforPublicHealth,aKiev-basedorganization,whoattendedthe
eventonWednesday."It'snotscientific,as[with]everythingrelated
totreatmentinRussia."
[returntoContents]<#n0>

#16
RFE/RL
April17,2016
BarredFromHundredsOfOccupationsInRussia,AFewWomenFightBack
byTomBalmforth

MOSCOW--SvetlanaMedvedevacannotrisetothetopofherchosen
professionforaverysimplereason--sheisawoman.

Theambitionofthe30-year-oldmotheroftwoistoearnamuchbetter
wageasthecaptainofaboatontheVolgaRiver,whichrunsthroughher
hometownofSamara.Andwiththedegreesheearnedin2005fromSamara
RiverCollege,sheshouldbewellonherway--oralreadythere.

ButwiththesysteminplaceontheVolga,theoccupationofcaptain
requireshertohavepriorexperienceasashipmechanic.Andthatjob
isoneofhundredsthatareopentomenonlyinRussia,accordingtothe
law.

ARussiangovernmentresolutionpassedin2000prohibitswomenfrom38
industriesandover450jobsitdeemstobe"dangerous"or"arduous."
AdoptedduringPresidentVladimirPutin'sfirstyearinoffice,itwas
thelatestincarnationofSoviet-eraregulationsthatsoughttokeep
womeninwhattheCommunistPartyoncecalledtheir"traditional"role
ofbearingchildrenforthegreatergoodofsociety.

Tothisday,thebancoversaswatheofoccupationsincludingminer,
carpenter,firefighter,traindriver,blacksmith,diver,anddriverof
buseswithmorethan14seats.

ThatmakesRussia"thecountrywiththemostjob-relatedbarriers,"
accordingtoaSeptember2015WorldBankreportongenderequality.

OnMarch15,theUnitedNationscalledonRussiatoamendits
legislationandshortenthelistofbannedoccupations.Italsoformally
labeledMedvedevaavictimof"gender-baseddiscrimination"--a
hard-wontriumphinalegalbattleshebeganin2012,seekingtobypass
theban.

Thatyear,Medvedevawasactuallyhiredforamechanic'sjob,withsome
responsibilitiesattheboat'shelm,byaprivatecompanyinSamara.But
whenherworkwasduetostart,shewasturnedawaybecauseofthe
legislation.

"Everythingwassigned,andIwasmeanttostartworkonMonday,"she
says."Icame,hadalookattheengineandhowitworks.Iwasmeantto
startintwodays--andthentherewasthisresolutionbanningmefrom
work."

Medvedevabegancampaigningfordispensationtobypasstheban,firing
offletterstotheKremlin,LaborMinistry,andHealthMinistry.They
allreferredherbacktotheLaborCode,whichinturncitesjobslisted
asdangerousinthegovernmentresolution.

Shewenttocourttoseekanordertoforcethecompanytoensuresafe
workingconditionsinthejob,butherappealwasrejected.Shesaysthe
jobisconsidereddangerousbecauseoftheloudnoiseoftheengine,
whichcanbecanceledoutbywearingearplugs.

"Idon'tthinkthereshouldbeprofessionsthatarebannedforwomen,"
Medvedevasays."Inanycase,womenaren'tgoingenmassetogototake
upheavywork,andinthoseprofessionswhereitreallyisheavy,the
jobsshouldsimplybeimproved.Theyshouldbeimproved,notbanned."

Medvedevasaysshehadpracticallygivenupwhenshecameacrossthe
RussianhumanrightsorganizationMemorial,whichofferedtohelppress
hercaseinternationally.ShewenttotheUnitedNations,whose
CommitteefortheEliminationofDiscriminationAgainstWomenpronounced
heravictimofdiscriminationandcalledonRussiatoamenditsLabor
Codeandreducethenumberofjobsthatareclosedtowomenunderthe
governmentresolution.

"Noevidencehasbeenprovidedtothecommitteethattheinclusionof
thepositionofhelmperson-motoristinthelistofprohibitedjobsis
basedonanyscientificevidencethatitmaybeharmfultowomen's
reproductivehealth,"theUNcommittee'sexpertssaidintheMarch15
statement.
SovietLaw

Thelegislationharksbacktothecommunistera,andhasbeenmodified
slightlywiththepassageoftime.Itslatestincarnationwaspassedas
agovernmentresolutionin2000thatliststhebannedprofessions.The
LaborCodeadditionallysaysthatwomenareprohibitedfromworking
undergroundexceptiftheyaredoingnonphysicaltaskssuchascleaning.
Theyarealsonotallowedtodojobsinvolvingliftingormovingheavy
items.

"ThissystemisveryoldandgoesbacktoSoviettimes,"saysYelena
Gerasimova,directoroftheMoscow-basedCenterforSocialandLabor
Rights."Therestrictionshavechangedovertheyears--some
occupationshavebeenremoved,othersincluded.Ithasn'talwaysbeenin
thisform.Atvarioustimesitwasaddedto,butthegeneralapproach
wasalwaysthesame."

Ontheonehand,Sovietideologyexplicitlyespousedequalitybetween
menandwomen--andonthefaceofitdidsodemonstratively.Soviet
cosmonautValentinaTereshkovabecamethefirstwomaninspacein1963,
20yearsbeforeSallyRidebecamethefirstAmericanwomantomakethetrip.

Ontheground,itwasadifferentstory.DuringtheSovietUnion's
breakneckindustrializationandthereconstructionafterthedevastation
ofWorldWarII,whichleftthecountrywithadeficitofmen,women
wereactivelypushedintothelaborforce--butwerelargelykeptout
ofhigh-skilledjobs.

TheSovietLaborCodeof1922explicitlybannedwomenfrom"dangerous"
jobs.In1981,theyeartherulingCommunistPartycalledforthe
"reinforcementofthetraditionalmaternalrole,"thenumberofjobs
shuttowomenhit460.

'LadyMetro'
Perhapsthemostwell-knownbanwastheprohibitionintroducedinthe
1980sonwomendrivingtrains,includinginthemetro,orsubway.Until
then,femaledrivershadbeencommonplace-alegacyofthedearthof
menfollowingWorldWarII.Womenwerealsopreventedfromworkingas
trainassistantsinthefrontcar.

Womenweregraduallyphasedoutofthejob--withoneexception.Until
herreportedretirement,NatalyaKorniyenkowasknownastheonlyfemale
metrodriverinMoscow,andthetabloidMoskovskyKomsomoletsdubbedher
"LadyMetro"in2007.

TheMoscowMetropressservicesaidin2009thatKorniyenkowasableto
continueworkingbecausethebanonhiringwomenasmetrodriversdid
notsaywhattodowiththosealreadyworking,andshepredatedtheban.

Othershavesincetriedtogainemploymentinthedriver'sboothof
subwaytrains--buttonoavail.In2009,AnnaKlevets,thena
22-year-oldlawstudent,pressedadiscriminationsuitafterbeing
turneddownforajobasanassistantmetrooperatorinSt.Petersburg
onthegroundsofhergender.Shearguedthatitwasaviolationof
Russia'sconstitutionalguaranteeofequalrightsformenandwomen.The
SupremeCourtrejectedherappealinMay2009.

Lastyear,anonlinepetitionwasairedbyaresidentoftheSiberian
cityofNovokuznetskcallingfortherepealoftheblanketban,saying
itwasoutdatedprimarilyforeconomicreasons.

Theauthorofthepetitionarguedthattherestrictionsweretolerable
intheSovietUnionbecausewomenwereabletofindotherdecentworkin
asysteminwhicheverycitizenwasvirtuallyguaranteedajob,butthat
withunemploymentontheriseandrealincomesfalling,itisunfairin
today'sRussia.

"Nowthesituationhaschanged,"saysthepetition,whichhasgarnered
just650signatures."Thejobsthatwomenarebarredfromcouldbethe
bestoronlywayforthemtoearnmoneytolive."http://tinyurl.com/jctm39v

GerasimovasaysthatRussiahassixmonthstorespondtotheUN'scall
tochangethelegislation.Shesaidthat"severalyearsago"therehad
beensignsthattheLaborMinistrywasmakingmovestorepealthe
legislation,butthattherehasbeennoovertindicationofthatrecently.

TherestrictionsseemtofitinwiththepushesbyPutinandtheRussian
OrthodoxChurchtotoutwhattheycalltraditionalRussianvalues.

Forherpart,Medvedevaseesnogroundswellofsupportforachange.

Thelegislation"isaprobleminmycase,"shesays."Ifthiswasa
particularlybigproblem,someonewouldhaveraiseditbeforemeasthe
resolutionhasbeeninforcefor16yearssince2000.I'mtheonewitha
concreteproblemothersapparentlydon'thaveit."
[returntoContents]<#n0>

#17
Time.com
April20,2016
WhyaWininaDutchCourtIsMakingVladimirPutinSoHappy
AcourtintheHaguehasquasheda$50billionjudgmentagainstthe
Russianstate.ButPresidentPutin'senemiesfromtheYukosaffair
aren'tgivingupanytimesoon
BySimonShuster

Inthesummerof2014,aninternationalcourtofarbitrationbasedin
theDutchcityoftheHagueissuedanastoundingruling.Thecourt
orderedthegovernmentofRussiatopay$50billionindamagestoformer
shareholdersoftheYukosoilcompany,whichtheRussianstatehad
forcedintobankruptcy,choppedintopiecesandsoldofftostate-run
firmsinthemid-2000s.Thatlegalassaulthadamountedto
expropriation,accordingtothecourt'sdecisionatthetime,byfarthe
biggestthecourtofarbitrationhadeverhandeddown,andamajorblow
toMoscow.

RussiaappealedtotheDistrictCourtintheHague-butitwasclearly
worriedabouttheoutcome.Topleaditscase,theKremlinhiredsomeof
thebestlawyersintheworld.ItspolicehadraidedhomesinMoscow
lookingforusefulevidence.Thestakeswerehigh.Ifthecourthad
ruledagainsttheKremlin,bailiffswouldbeabletocontinueseizing
Russianstateproperty,fromrealestateandbankaccountstoworksof
art,aspartofaglobalhunttocollectthedamages.

"Ourargumentsarewatertight,"AndreiKondakov,thecoordinatorofthe
legalteamrepresentingRussia,toldTIMEacoupleofdaysbeforethe
ruling."Butwecouldlose."

Instead,thecourtonWednesdayhandedRussiaaremarkablewin.It
overturnedtheoriginalrulingonatechnicality,thusgrantingRussia's
appeal."Wedon'thavetopayasinglepennytothisbunchofguys,"
Kondakovtoldreportersaftertheruling.Well,atleastnotuntilthe
Yukosshareholdersfileanothersetofappeals,asthey'vealready
promisedtodo.

"Thecourthasmisappliedthelaw,"TimOsborne,theheadoftheirlegal
team,saidatapressconferenceonWednesday.Butevenasthefight
overtheYukosfortunecontinuesinthecourts,Russiacanclaima
powerfulvictory,onethatcouldhelpthestatewinsimilarchallenges
toitswealth-anditsreputation-aroundtheworld.

BeforeWednesday'sruling,theKremlinhadbeenpreparingforamuch
moredifficultfight.Inresponsetothe$50billionjudgmentin2014,
itrefusedtopaythedamagestoYukosshareholders,whothenretaliated
bytryingtoseizeRussianstateassetsaroundtheworld.Lastsummer,
courtsinFranceandBelgiumagreedtofreezedozensofRussianbank
accountsandpropertiesasameansofcollectingthedebt.Moscowwas
furious.

Anythingbelongingtothestate,withtheexceptionofembassiesand
otherdiplomaticproperty,waspotentiallysubjecttoseizureonforeign
soil.SoRussiahadtothinktwiceaboutsendingplanestoforeignair
shows,forinstance,orlendingarttoforeignmuseums.Russiafought
back-aftertheassetfreezesinFranceandBelgium,Moscowthreatened
toretaliateagainstanycountrythattriedtoenforcethedebttoYukos
shareholders.InNovember,Putinevensignedanewlawthatwouldallow
hisgovernmenttocarryouttit-for-tatconfiscationsofforeignassets
onRussiansoil.

ButforPutin,thissagaisaboutmuchmorethanmoney.TheYukosaffair
isapersonalgrudge,onethatbegansoonafterhecametopowerin
2000.InoneofhisfirstactsasPresident,hesetouttocheckthe
powerofthebillionaireclassofplutocratsthathadeffectivelybought
upcontrolofthecountry'seconomyduringtheprivatizationwaveinthe
1990s.Putin'sarrivalmeanttherulesofbusinesswouldchange.During
aseriesofmeetings,hetoldtheoligarchsthattheycouldkeeptheoil
fields,minesandfactoriestheyhadpurchasedfromthestateonthe
cheapbeforehecametopower.ButtheyhadtorecognizePutin's
authorityasstandingwellabovetheirown.

"Hewasablackbox,nooneknewwhatwasinside,"recallsSergei
Pugachev,theoligarchwhohelpedarrangethefirstmeetingwithPutin.
Thebettertogethismessageacross,Putindecidedtoholdthatmeeting
attheformerdachaoftheSovietdictatorJosefStalin.Mostofthem
gotthemessage,Pugachev,whonowlivesinexileinLondon,toldTIME
in2014."'HetookustoStalin'sdacha,'"heremembersoneoftheother
guestssayingthatday."'It'senoughthatheletusleave.'"

Atthetime,thewealthiestamongtheoligarchswasMikhail
Khodorkovsky,whowasworthabout$15billion.Withthehelpofhis
connectionsintheyouthleagueoftheSovietCommunistParty,hehad
startedinbusinessearly,sellingpersonalcomputersbeforemostSoviet
citizenshadeverheardofthem.Aspost-SovietRussiatransitionedto
capitalismintheearly1990s,heamassedenoughmoneytostartbuying
upthechoicestoilfieldsthatthenearlybankruptRussianstatecould
offer.TheseformedthebasisoftheYukosoilempire-andsecuredhis
positionasthemostpowerfultycooninthecountrybythetimePutin
arrivedintheKremlin.

WhenTIMEinterviewedhimin2014,Khodorkovskyalsorecalledthatfirst
meetingwithPutin,thoughnotquitethesamewaythatPugachevdoes.
Foronething,Khodorkovskywasnotintimidated."Maybenow[Putin]
talksinthelanguageofultimatums.Butatthetimeitwasallvery
polite,"hetoldme."Still,weunderstoodthatweweredealingwiththe
headofthecountry,whohasalotmoreauthority[inRussia]thanthe
AmericanPresident.Andwe,thebigbusinessmen,mayhavesomepowers.
Butcomparedtothoseoftheheadofstate,theyarepracticallyzero."

Still,theheadofYukosdidnotbehaveasmodestly-orascautiously-
astheothers.IntheyearsthatfollowedPutin'sascenttopower,
Khodorkovskybegannegotiatingdealswithforeigncompanies,including
U.S.oilconcerns,thatwouldhavethreatenedthestate'seffective
monopolyontheexportofoil-byfarthemostvaluableofRussia's
naturalresources.Healsobeganfundingoppositionpartiesand
discussinganeventualrunforthepresidency.Putindidnottakekindly
tosuchambitions.

Theconflictbetweenthemcametoaheadin2003,whenRussiancommandos
arrestedKhodorkovskyonthetarmacofaSiberianairportandtookhim
tojailtofacechargesoffraud,whichhedenied.Hisoilcompanywas
hitwithsomanytaxclaimsthatitwasforcedtoenterbankruptcy.Over
thenextfewyears,theauthoritiessoldoffYukos'mostvaluableassets
andoilfieldstostate-controlledfirmsrunbyPutin'scloseassociates.

ThequestionnowatthecenterofthelawsuitsintheHagueiswhether
thatassaultonYukoswaslegal.Inawardingdamagesof$50billiontwo
yearsago,thetribunalruledthattheactionsoftheRussianstatewere
"equivalenttoexpropriation"intheYukoscase.Kondakov,thelawyer
representingtheRussianstate,deniesthatKhodorkovskyandhisfirm
were"singledoutandtargeted"bytheauthorities.

Inthe1990s,manyoftheoligarchsbecamevastlyrichthroughthe
purchaseofstateassets,Kondakovargues."Everyonegotawaywiththose
auctions,butthenyouweregivenachance,"hesaysbyphonefrom
Moscow,referringtotheopportunityPutingavetheoligarchstostart
payingtheirtaxesandfallingintoline."Soit'snotaboutothers
gettingaway.It'sabouthowyoubehaveafteryou'regivena
once-in-a-lifetime,uniquechancetoacquireaverypriceyassetfora
verynegligibleamountofmoney."

ButwhatevermoneyKhodorkovskymayhavesavedinthepurchaseofhis
oilwells,hepaidforitdearlyinprison.Atonepointin2006,his
cellmateinaSiberianpenalcolonytriedtostabhimintheeyewhile
hewassleeping.Hewasoftenheldinsolitaryconfinementandwas
forcedtoworksewinguniformsforthepolice.Onlyafter10yearsof
incarceration,whenKhodorkovsky'smotherwasgravelyill,Putinagreed
togranthimapardon-aslongashewentintoexile.

ItdidnottakelongforthePresidenttoregretthatunusualactof
clemency.WithinayearofhisreleaseinDecember2013,Khodorkovsky
beganopenlycallingforarevolutionagainstPutin'srule.Usingthe
moneyhehadstashedinforeignbanksbeforehisarrest,healsobegan
tosupporttheoppositionmovementinRussiaandbankrollcandidatesin
Russianelections.Withtheir$50billionjudgmentfromtheHague,his
formerpartnersintheoilbusinessbeganchasingRussianassetsaround
theworld."Wearenothidingfromanyone,"Kondakovinsistedatthe
time."Wearenotrunningfromanyregularoperationofthestate."

ButthestatedidstepupitshuntforevidenceagainstKhodorkovskyin
Russia.AfewdaysbeforeChristmas,policeraidedtheofficesofhis
activistgroupinMoscow,aswellasthehomesofhisspokeswoman,
severalofhisemployeesandtheirrelatives.Investigatorssaidthe
raidswerelinkedtoanothercaseof"illegalprivatization"ofassets
inthe1990s,thistimeinvolvingafertilizerandminingcompany.

Insomecases,though,suchevidencecanbeusefulindefendingRussia
againsttheYukosshareholders,saysKondakov."Thosethingsaredonein
parallel,"hesayswhenaskedabouttheapartmentsraidedinDecember.
Hewasnotawareofanyusefulmaterialgatheredbypoliceinthose
particularsearches.Butinfightingtheenforcementofthejudgmentin
theHague,Russiansecurityserviceshaveopenedtheirtrovesof
documentsonYukostothegovernment'slawyers-includingthe
high-pricedAmericanfirmWhite&Case."Wearethankfultoboththe
officeoftheprocuratorgeneralandtheRussianInvestigativeCommittee
foropeningtheirfiles,providingaccessforourlawyers,"Kondakov
tellsTIME.

Thosefilesmayyetcomeinhandy.AfterWednesday'srulinginthe
Hague,theYukosshareholderspledgedtoappealallthewayuptothe
DutchSupremeCourt,whichmayyetdecidetoupholdthe$50billionin
damages.TheirracetograbRussianstateassetswouldthenbebackon.

Khodorkovskywillbewatchingfromthesidelines.Soonafterhisarrest
in2003,hetransferredhisstakeintheYukosoilempiretohis
partners.Sohedoesn'thavemuchtogain,atleastfinancially,from
thelitigationintheHague."Evenwithoutme,noonewillgivethemany
peaceonthisissue,"hetoldmewithasmilesoonafterhisrelease.
Forhispart,heplanstocontinuehiscrusadeagainstPutinforaslong
asittakestounseathim."Myfriendswillcontinuetheirresistance,"
hewroteonTwitterafterWednesday'sruling,referringtotheYukos
shareholders."I'llkeepgoingforregimechangebyothermeans."
[returntoContents]<#n0>

#18
www.foreignaffairs.com
April19,2016
IncorruptiblePutin
WhythePanamaAllegationsWon'tStick
ByGregoryFeifer
GREGORYFEIFERistheauthorofRussians:ThePeopleBehindthePower.
[Completetextherebehind
paywall:http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/russian-federation/2016-04-19/incorruptible-putin

ThebiggestsurpriseabouttheRussianreactiontothePanamaPapers
leakscameintheformofaposterthatdepictedRussianPresident
VladimirPutinasthedrug-addledprotagonistplayedbyJohnnyDeppin
themovieversionofHunterS.Thompson'sFearandLoathinginLas
Vegas-completewithPanamahat,aviatorsunglasses,andcigarette
holder.AdorningacentralMoscowbusstopforseveralhoursbeforethe
authoritieshaditremoved,theposterread,"WhatPanama?"

Therarepublicdisplayofdefiancemainlyservedtodrawattentionto
theapathyofthegeneralpublic-itcomesasnosurpriseinacountry
wherestatepropagandafuelswidespreadsuspicionthatmostforeign
developmentsareplotsagainstMotherRussia.EvenasWesternfiction,
however,revelationsfromtheleakeddocumentswouldstraincredulity
aboveall,informationrevealedthatthehandfulofindividualsfrom
Putin'sinnercirclewhomovedatleast$2billionthroughCaribbean
offshorecompaniesincludedSergeiRoldugin,anobscurecellistfromSt.
PetersburgwhoisthegodfatherofoneofPutin'sdaughters.

Thepresident'sresponsewasmoreincrediblestill.Dismissingthe
accusationsagainstRolduginaspartofaU.S.plottoundermineRussian
unitybyimpugningahumblemusician,hesaidhisoldfriendhadonly
depositedcashthathehadhonestlyearnedonthesideandintendedto
usetobuyinstrumentstodonatetocharity....
[returntoContents]<#n0>

#19
KennanInstitute
April19,2016
HardWorkvs.Magic
ByMaximTrudolyubov
SeniorFellow,KennanInstitute.Editor-at-Large,VedomostiDaily

Russianofficialsstillreferto"conditionsfordoingbusiness"or
"qualityofgovernance"whendiscussingthecountry'seconomic
performance.Butthelackofgravitasintheseconversationsis
palpable.Russia'sofficialeconomicpolicymakerscommandanexcellent
understandingofthecountry'seconomicproblems,buttheylackthe
powertoadministertreatmentbasedontheirowndiagnosis.

Therealpolicymakers,thoseintheKremlin,consistentlyhavetheupper
handandareabletoturntheirthinkingintopolicies.Theproblemwith
thisisnotthefactthatthepresidentandhisinnercirclearemore
powerfulthantheministersoffinanceoreconomics.Technocrats
everywherearelessimperiousthanpoliticalheavyweights.Theproblem
isthattheeconomistsandtheKremlinplayersliveintwodifferentworlds.

Theheavyweights'andtechnocrats'understandingsofthereasonsbehind
eventsaresoprofoundlydifferentthatthepoliciesproposedbyeach
areincompatible.Thesedifferencesofopiniongobeyondtheusual
policydisagreementsandstrikeattheheartofthegoalsofpolicymaking.

Technocratsseereasonsfordomesticfailuresoriginatingindomestic
issuesandseektofindinternalcuresfortheeconomy'sailments.They
liveintheworldofglobaleconomicprocessesandwouldliketoseea
competitiveanddevelopedRussia.Heavyweightsstresstheimportanceof
externalfactorsandseemtobelievethatoncethedesignsofforeign
evildoersarerevealedandrebuffed,theeconomywillfixitself.They
operateunderawarmentalityandwouldliketostayinpoweratallcosts.

Whereaseconomictechnocratsspeakoftheinvestmentclimateandtaxes,
theKremlinpolicymakersspeakofinternationaldealsthatwouldpush
oilpricesbacktotheirformerhighs.Whereastechnocratsaretryingto
promotebusiness-friendlypoliciesandinternationalintegration,
heavyweightsseeeveryeconomicproblemasamanifestationoftheUnited
States'"hybridwar"againstRussiaandseekretaliation.

RussianFinanceMinisterAntonSiluanoveffectivelyconfirmedthiswhen
hespokeinfrontofallthetopbrassofRussia'seconomicpolicymaking
apparatusatarecentconference.Askedtonamethemostimportant
growthfactors,hesaiditwasoil,althoughitshouldnothavebeen.
"ThetopgrowthfactorinRussiaisoil:$20abarreladd0.8to1
percentagepointsofeconomicgrowth.Butdoweneedthiskindof
volatile,jerkygrowth?"Siluanovaskedhimself."Theconsequencesof
growthlikethisarethestrengtheningoftherubleandthelossof
competitiveness.Weneedaninvestment-basedgrowth...afewsectorsof
theeconomyshowedsomeprofitincreaseslastyearduetoexchangerate
differences.Butitallwentintodividends,notintocapitalinvestment
because,withthesehighlevelsofdeficit,economicagentswerenot
sureofpolicydirection.Theywerenotsureifthegovernmentwould
keepthecurrenttaxregimeinplaceorhiketaxes."

Macroeconomicpoliciesalonewon'tbeabletoreturntheeconomyto
growthbecauseofthelackofacompetitiveinvestmentclimateand
strongstateinvolvementinbusinessactivities,PyotrAven,theheadof
AlfaBank,Russia'slargestindependentlender,saidinarecentinterview.

Whilethesekindsofpoliciesrequireyearsofpoliticalhardwork,the
Kremlin'sfavoritepoliciescanbedecidedandputintoeffectquickly
andeasily."Russiaandsomeothercountrieshavebeenlivingina
situationoftheso-calledhybridwarunleashedbytheUnitedStates...
Internationallawisfrequentlyusedasaninstrumentofhybridwarfare
againstRussia,"AlexanderBastrykin,headoftheRussianInvestigative
Committee,wroteinapiecepublishedonMonday.Bastrykinwentonto
blameallRussia'seconomictrouble,includingthefallingrubleand
dwindlingincomes,onAmericanmischief.Eventhegrowingfiscalburden
thataffectsRussiandomesticcompanies,Bastrykinwrites,istheresult
ofAmericanpressure.Yes,sanctionsareinplace,butreducing
everythingtoaneffectofexternalpressureistantamounttomagical
thinking.

IfeverythingthatgoeswrongisaresultofAmerica's"hybrid"attack,
aretaliatoryattackisinorder.Isitgoingtobeanotherinvasionor
somedomesticcrackdown?Theanswerissupposedtoremainunknownuntil
everyonelearnsitfromthemorningnews.That'showagovernmentacts
whenitisatwar.Buttheveryunpredictabilityofthishighlyreactive
"wartime"policymakingisdeadlytomostkindsofbusiness.Sothe
economicpolicymakersarenottheproblem."Theproblemisthat
investors-bothforeignandRussian-don'treallytrustthemaninthe
bigchairnottodrivetheeconomydeliberatelyoffacliffjusttostay
inpower,"summarizesSamuelGreene,directorofRussiaInstituteat
King'sCollege,London.

Russiacanfollowtwopathstotryandclimboutoftheeconomicpitit
currentlyfindsitselfin.Itcanchampionprivateentrepreneurshipand
privateinvestmentandworktomakeitsbusinessclimatemore
competitive.Oritcantrustinitspoliticalwitchcraftandhopethat
oilpriceswillsomehowgrowbacktobeneficiallevels.Thislatterpath
hasfailedspectacularly.Russianofficialswereputtingalotofhope
intoapossibledealtofreezeoiloutput.ButasummitinDohaamong
theworld'slargestoilproducingcountriesendedwithoutanagreement
onSundayafterSaudiArabiainsistedthatIran,afierceregional
rival,hadtobepartofanyagreement.

RussiacouldfollowtheadviceofthelikesofBastrykinandintroduce
furtherrestrictivelegislation,bancertaintypesofcontent,and
censordomesticInternet.AllthesethingswillsomehowmakeRussia
betteroff,Bastrykinbelieves.GivenhisbackgroundasonetimeYoung
CommunistLeagueSecretaryofthecityofLeningrad,thiskindof
ideologicalapproachisunderstandable.Itisjustpuzzlingthatthese
attitudesandbeliefsstillconsistentlybeatoutprofessionaleconomic
policymakinginRussia.
[returntoContents]<#n0>

#20
www.foreigpolicy.com
April21,2016
SitRep:Exclusive:PentagonSaysRussiaCanFightinUkraineandSyria
AnotherTwoYears
BYPAULMCLEARYandADAMRAWNSLEY

Stillcold.IthasbeentwoyearssinceNATOandRussiasatatthesame
tabletotalksecurityissues,andthetimeoffhasn'tdonemuchforthe
relationship.AmeetinginBrusselsWednesdaydesignedtobreaktheice
onissueslikeUkraine,Syria,andtensionsintheBalticsdidn'tget
veryfarbeforeallsidesagreedtheydon'tseeeye-to-eyeonmuch.

"Duringthemeetingitwasreconfirmedwedisagree,bothwhenitcomes
tothefacts,thenarrativesandtheresponsibilitiesforthecrisisin
andaroundUkraine,"NATOSecretary-GeneralJensStoltenbergsaidafter
thesitdown.

TheNATO-RussiaCouncilwasestablishedin2002tokeepupamonthly
dialoguebetweenMoscowandtheEuropeandefenseorganization,butties
werebrokenoffinJune2014aftertheinvasionofUkraine.

ThewarinUkraine'seastrageson,however,withoneseniorDefense
officialtellingSitRepthatthereare7,000Russiantroopsstillinside
Ukraine,advisingpro-Moscowrebelsandengaginginthefightingthemselves.

RussianPresidentVladimirPutin'sinterventionintheSyrianconflict
topropuptheregimeofBasharal-Assadhasn'tmadeadentinthe
abilityofRussiatosendmoreequipmenttoUkraine,either.Overthe
pastyear,Russiahasshippednewrocketlaunchers,artillery,drones,
andadvancedelectronicwarfareequipmenttotheeasternDonbassregion.

"Ithinktheycansustainthisforaconsiderableperiodoftime,"the
officialsaid."Ourviewisthattheycouldsustainthiseasilyfor24
months"evenifoilpricesremainlowandtheRussianeconomycontinues
tostagnate.DespiteanannouncementlastmonththattheRussian
militarywouldbegintowithdrawforcesfromSyria,insteadMoscowsent
moreadvancedhelicopters,andthelevelofdailyairstrikeshas
remainedsteady.

TheNATOtalks,someanalystssay,likelywon'tamounttomuch.But
they'reastart.OlgaOliker,directoroftheRussiaandEurasiaProgram
attheCenterforStrategicandInternationalStudiessaysthat"right
now,theRussiansareatthetableintheinterestofsimplybeingat
thetable.IdothinkapartoftheRussianpurposeinmeetingwithNATO
is'beawareofus,payattentiontous,andyoucan'tdiscountus,'"
andnotmuchmore.
[returntoContents]<#n0>

#21
NewYorkTimes
April21,2016
RussiaBolstersItsSubmarineFleet,andTensionsWithU.S.Rise
ByERICSCHMITT

NAPLES,Italy-Russianattacksubmarines,themostintwodecades,are
prowlingthecoastlinesofScandinaviaandScotland,theMediterranean
SeaandtheNorthAtlanticinwhatWesternmilitaryofficialssayisa
significantlyincreasedpresenceaimedatcontestingAmericanandNATO
underseadominance.

Adm.MarkFerguson,theUnitedStatesNavy'stopcommanderinEurope,
saidlastfallthattheintensityofRussiansubmarinepatrolshadrisen
byalmost50percentoverthepastyear,citingpublicremarksbythe
RussianNavychief,Adm.ViktorChirkov.Analystssaythattempohasnot
changedsincethen.

Thepatrolsarethemostvisiblesignofarenewedinterestinsubmarine
warfarebyPresidentVladimirV.Putin,whosegovernmenthasspent
billionsofdollarsfornewclassesofdieselandnuclear-poweredattack
submarinesthatarequieter,betterarmedandoperatedbymore
proficientcrewsthaninthepast.

Thetensionsarepartofanexpandingrivalryandmilitarybuildup,with
echoesoftheColdWar,betweentheUnitedStatesandRussia.Moscowis
projectingforcenotonlyintheNorthAtlanticbutalsoinSyriaand
Ukraineandbuildingupitsnucleararsenalandcyberwarfarecapacities
inwhatAmericanmilitaryofficialssayisanattempttoproveits
relevanceafteryearsofeconomicdeclineandretrenchment.

IndependentAmericanmilitaryanalystsseetheincreasedRussian
submarinepatrolsasalegitimatechallengetotheUnitedStatesand
NATO.Evenshortoftensions,thereisthepossibilityofaccidentsand
miscalculations.Butwhateverthethreat,thePentagonisalsousingthe
stepped-upRussianpatrolsasanotherargumentforbiggerbudgetsfor
submarinesandanti-submarinewarfare.

Americannavalofficialssaythatintheshortterm,thegrowingnumber
ofRussiansubmarines,withtheirabilitytoshadowWesternvesselsand
Europeancoastlines,willrequiremoreships,planesandsubstomonitor
them.Inthelongterm,theDefenseDepartmenthasproposed$8.1billion
overthenextfiveyearsfor"underseacapabilities,"includingninenew
Virginia-classattacksubmarinesthatcancarryupto40Tomahawkcruise
missiles,morethantriplethecapacitynow.

"We'rebacktothegreatpowerscompetition,"Adm.JohnM.Richardson,
thechiefofnavaloperations,saidinaninterview.

Lastweek,unarmedRussianwarplanesrepeatedlybuzzedaNavydestroyer
intheBalticSeaandatonepointcamewithin30feetofthewarship,
Americanofficialssaid.LastyearsomeofRussia'snewdiesel
submarineslaunchedfourcruisemissilesattargetsinSyria.

Mr.Putin'smilitarymodernizationprogramalsoincludesnew
intercontinentalballisticmissilesaswellasaircraft,tanksandair
defensesystems.

Tobesure,thereishardlyparitybetweentheRussianandAmerican
submarinefleets.Russiahasabout45attacksubmarines-abouttwo
dozenarenuclear-poweredand20arediesel-whicharedesignedtosink
othersubmarinesorships,collectintelligenceandconductpatrols.But
Westernnavalanalystssaythatonlyabouthalfofthoseareableto
deployatanygiventime.Moststayclosertohomeandmaintainan
operationaltempofarbelowaColdWarpeak.

TheUnitedStateshas53attacksubmarines,allnuclear-powered,aswell
asfourothernuclear-poweredsubmarinesthatcarrycruisemissilesand
SpecialOperationsforces.Atanygiventime,roughlyathirdof
America'sattacksubmarinesareatsea,eitheronpatrolsortraining,
withtheothersundergoingmaintenance.AmericanNavyofficialsand
WesternanalystssaythatAmericanattacksubmarines,whicharemadefor
speed,enduranceandstealthtodeployfarfromAmericanshores,remain
superiortotheirRussiancounterparts.

ThePentagonisalsodevelopingsophisticatedtechnologytomonitor
encryptedcommunicationsfromRussiansubmarinesandnewkindsof
remotelycontrolledorautonomousvessels.MembersoftheNATOalliance,
includingBritain,GermanyandNorway,areatthesametimebuyingor
consideringbuyingnewsubmarinesinresponsetotheKremlin's
projectionofforceintheBalticandArctic.

ButMoscow'srecentlyrevisednationalsecurityandmaritimestrategies
emphasizetheneedforRussianmaritimeforcestoprojectpowerandto
haveaccesstothebroaderAtlanticOceanaswellastheArctic.

Russiansubmarinesandspyshipsnowoperatenearthevitalundersea
cablesthatcarryalmostallglobalInternetcommunications,raising
concernsamongsomeAmericanmilitaryandintelligenceofficialsthat
theRussianscouldattackthoselinesintimesoftensionorconflict.
Russiaisalsobuildinganunderseaunmanneddronecapableofcarryinga
small,tacticalnuclearweapontouseagainstharborsorcoastalareas,
Americanmilitaryandintelligenceanalystssaid.

And,liketheUnitedStates,Russiaoperateslargernuclear-powered
submarinesthatcarrylong-rangenuclearmissilesandspendmonthsata
timehidinginthedepthsoftheocean.Thosesubmarines,although
lethal,donotpatrolliketheattacksubmarinesdo,anddonotposethe
samedegreeofconcerntoAmericanNavalofficials.

AnalystssaythatMoscow'scontinuedinvestmentinattacksubmarinesis
incontrasttothequalityofmanyofRussia'slandandairforcesthat
frayedinthepost-ColdWarera.

"IntheRussiannavalstructure,submarinesarethecrownjewelsfor
navalcombatpower,"saidMagnusNordenman,directoroftheAtlantic
Council'strans-AtlanticsecurityinitiativeinWashington."TheU.S.
andNATOhaven'tfocusedonanti-submarineoperationslately,and
they'veletthatskilldeteriorate."

ThathasallowedforarapidRussianresurgence,WesternandAmerican
officialssay,partlyinresponsetowhattheysayisRussia'sfearof
beinghemmedin.

"Idon'tthinkmanypeopleunderstandthevisceralwayRussiaviewsNATO
andtheEuropeanUnionasanexistentialthreat,"AdmiralFergusonsaid
inaninterview.

InNaples,attheheadquartersoftheUnitedStatesNavy'sEuropean
operations,includingtheSixthFleet,commandersforthefirsttimein
decadesarehavingtocloselymonitorRussiansubmarinemovements
throughthemaritimechokepointsseparatingGreenland,Icelandandthe
UnitedKingdom,theG.I.U.K.Gap,whichduringtheColdWarwerecrucial
tothedefenseofEurope.

Thatstretchofocean,hundredsofmileswide,representedthelinethat
SovietnavalforceswouldhavehadtocrosstoreachtheAtlanticandto
stopUnitedStatesforcesheadingacrosstheseatoreinforceAmerica's
Europeanalliesintimeofconflict.

Americananti-submarineaircraftwerestationedfordecadesattheNaval
AirStationKeflavikinIceland-inthemiddleofthegap-butthey
withdrewin2006,yearsaftertheColdWar.TheNavyafterthatrelied
onP-3sub-hunterplanesrotatingperiodicallythroughthebase.

Now,theNavyispoisedtospendabout$20milliontoupgradehangars
andsupportsitesatKeflaviktohandleitsnew,moreadvancedP-8A
Poseidonmaritimepatrolaircraft.ThatmoneyispartofthePentagon's
new$3.4billionEuropeanReassuranceInitiative,aquadruplingoffunds
fromlastyeartodeployheavyweapons,armoredvehiclesandother
equipmenttoNATOcountriesinCentralandEasternEurope,todeter
Russianaggression.

NavyofficialsexpressconcernthatmoreRussiansubmarinepatrolswill
pushoutbeyondtheAtlanticintotheMediterraneanandtheBlackSea.
RussiahasoneMediterraneanportnow,inTartus,Syria,butNavy
officialsheresayMoscowwantstoestablishothers,perhapsinCyprus,
EgyptorevenLibya.

"IfyouhaveaRussiannuclearattacksubmarinewanderingaroundthe
Med,youwanttotrackit,"saidDmitryGorenburg,aRussianmilitary
specialistattheCenterforNavalAnalysesinWashington.

Thismonth,theDefenseAdvancedResearchProjectsAgencychristeneda
132-footprototypedroneseacraftpackedwithsensors,theSeaHunter,
whichismadewiththeintentionofhuntingautonomouslyforsubmarines
andminesforuptothreemonthsatatime.

Thealliesarealsoholdinghalfadozenanti-submarineexercisesthis
year,includingalargedrillscheduledlaterthisspringcalledDynamic
MongooseintheNorthSea.Theexerciseistoincludewarshipsand
submarinesfromBritain,France,Germany,theNetherlands,Norway,
PolandandtheUnitedStates.

"WearenotquitebackinaColdWar,"saidJamesG.Stavridis,a
retiredadmiralandtheformersupremealliedcommanderofNATO,whois
nowdeanoftheFletcherSchoolofLawandDiplomacyatTufts
University."ButIsurecanseeonefromwherewearestanding."
[returntoContents]<#n0>

#22
WallStreetJournal
April18,2016
Russia'sWilyMenandWomen
Russiansholdviewsthatseemimpossibletoreconcile.Studentsata
reputableschoolofferacuriousmixofheroes:StalinandSteveJobs.
ByJOSHUAYAFFA
Mr.Yaffa,ajournalistbasedinMoscow,isacontributortotheNew
Yorker.HeisalsoafellowatNewAmerica.

PUTINCOUNTRY
ByAnneGarrels
Farrar,StrausandGiroux,228pages,$26

In2000,atthedawnofRussia'sPutinepoch,thesociologistYuri
Levadapublishedanarticletitled"TheWilyMan."Init,Mr.Levada
drewaportraitofaparticularlyRussianspecies-apersonalitytype
forgedbyamixtureofdoublespeak,irresponsibilityandthesuspicion
thatmaterializedduringtheSovietUnionandwasleftdisorientedby
thecollapseofthatsystem.Thewilymanisnotparticularlyfooledby
propagandaheknowsthestate'sweaknessesandfoibleswell.Butthat
doesnotmakethewilymanopposedtotherulingsystem-hedependsonit
andfearsitsabsencemorethanwhateverhardshipsitsexistencemay
bring.Thewilyman,Mr.Levadawrites,"notonlytoleratesdeception,
butiswillingtobedeceived"and,what'smore,"requires
self-deceptionforthesakeofhisownself-preservation."
Althoughthenominalsubjectof"PutinCountry"isChelyabinsk-an
industrialcityofonemillionpeopleeastoftheUralMountainsandits
surrounding,mineral-richregionofcoalminesanddenseforests-the
book'sdeeperandmorerevelatorythemeisthatoftheRussianwilyman.
AnneGarrels,itsauthor,isalongtimecorrespondentforNPR,andshe
hasthereportorialadvantageofbeginningherobservationof
Chelyabinskin1993,whenthewoundoftheSovietcollapsewasstill
fresh.Ms.Garrelshasreturnedtotheregionmanytimesovertheyears,
includingalongstintduringMr.Putin'smomentousandcurrentthird
presidentialterm,whichbeganin2012.

OnhermorerecentvisitstoChelyabinsk,Ms.Garrelsfindsacity
transformed-Moscowwasn'ttheonlycitybeautifiedthankstothe
country'swindfallofoilandgasprofitsinthe2000s.ChanelandH&M
haveshopsintownvisitorshavetheirpickofaHolidayInnora
Radisson.Chelyabinskcanbeacosmopolitan,happeningplace-thoughnot
onepronetoliberalpoliticsoroppositionactivism.Hencethebook's
title.

YetadecadeandahalfintoMr.Putin'srule,therearefewplacesin
Russiauntouchedbythesystemhehasconstructedandnowlordsover:
It'sall"PutinCountry."Ms.Garrelsadmitsthatallthoseyearsago
shefirstchoseChelyabinskatrandom-theresultofliterallythrowinga
sharpenedpencilatamap-andinawaythatshows:Thereislittle
remarkableabouttheplace,thoughthatisalsowhatmakesthebook
worthwhile.ThiscouldbeanywhereinRussia.

WhatmakesChelyabinskcompellingisitspeople.Theyarelargelydecent
andundeniablyintelligent,protectiveofwhattheyhaveachieved,wary
oftheunknown,and,aboveall,cleverandflexibleatadaptingto
changingtimes.Inaword,theyarethewilymen(andwomen)ofMr.
Levada'sessay.Earlyinthebook,Ms.GarrelsintroducesIrina,a
magazineeditorinher30swhohasaSwisseducationandaEuropean
wardrobe.Yetsheharborsa"resentment,almostanoutrighthatred"for
theWest.Irina,Ms.Garrelswrites,islikemanyinChelyabinsk:"They
aresickofbeatinguponthemselves.Theyaresickoftheircountry's
beingseenasnothingmorethanamafia-riddenkleptocracy-eventhough
theyarethefirsttocomplainaboutcorruption.Theyaresickofthe
West'sbeatinguponthemfortheirsins,especiallynowtheyaremore
awareofWesternsins."

LaterwemeetNatalia,whowasawomen's-rightsadvocateinthe1990s
andisnowfocusedonincreasingRussia'sbirthrateasamemberofthe
politicallyloyalcitycouncil.Herinterestsmayberetrogradeand,at
times,illiberal,butforNataliaacertaincynicismisasignof
enlightenmenttobeoverlyearnestistobenave.The1990s,asa
familiarargumentgoes-repeatedsomanytimesbyRussianpoliticiansand
punditsastobecomeakindofmantra-werelessatimeoffreedomthan
ofchaos."Idon'twanttorepeatthatperiod....Wedestroyedas
muchaswedeveloped,"Nataliasays.

PerhapsmosttellingisAlexander,wholivesinavillagefivehours
fromthecity.HeadmiresMr.Putinandthesystemthepresidenthas
built,evenashecomplainsthatcorruptionisrife,governanceispoor,
andthelocaleconomyisheldbackbyanoverbearingandrapacious
state.Alexander'scriticismsmirrorthoseofthecitizensinthebook
whoconsiderthemselvesdissidentsandactivists,thoughAlexanderwould
neverconsiderhimselfeitherone."HeisproudofPutin,"Ms.Garrels
writes,"andbetweenhimandthosewhodreadtheircountry'scurrent
course,thereisanunbridgeabledivide."

Thissortofinternalcontradictionisn'tuniquetoAlexander.Manyof
theRussiansMs.Garrelsmeetsholdviewsthatseemimpossibleto
reconcile.Shecitespollsthatshowthattwo-thirdsofethnicRussians
callthemselvesOrthodoxbelievers,butmanyofthoseverysamepeople
saythattheydonotbelieveinGod.Atonepoint,theauthorvisitsa
prestigiousstatesecondaryschoolwherethestudentsofferacurious
mixofheroes:JosephStalin,SteveJobs,BillGatesandGandhi.The
searchforapost-Sovietideologyhas,inChelyabinskandacrossRussia,
ledtoastrangemishmash,atoncefaithfulandmystical,distrustful
andfatalistic.

Although"PutinCountry"offersatactilesenseoflifeinChelyabinsk,
itcanalsofeelshallowandimpressionistic:Localwomen,Ms.Garrels
writesatonepoint,area"farcryfromthebabushkasofyore."More
frustratingaretherathersensationalallegationsthatdropinoutof
nowhereandareleftunexplored,suchasherclaimthatprisoninmates
inChelyabinskwerereleasedtofightonthesideofpro-Russianrebels
inUkraineiftheyrefused,shewrites,theyfacedfurtherpunishment.

AccordingtodoomsayersintheWest,thePutinsystemwassupposedto
havemetitspoliticaldownfallmanytimes:aftertheglobalfinancial
crashof2008-09,aftertheseasonofanti-Putinprotestin2011-12and,
mostrecently,after2014,whenWesternsanctions,lowoilpricesanda
tankingrublepushedtheRussianeconomyintoarecession.Butthe
rulingarchitecturethatMr.Putinhasbuilt-nottomentiontheman
himself-hasproveddurableinplaceslikeChelyabinsk.Forhislong-term
politicalsurvival,Mr.Putinwillneedtheacquiescence,evenifonly
passive,ofthecountry'swilymenandwomen-somethingthat,fornow,he
continuestoenjoy.
[returntoContents]<#n0>

#23
BulletinoftheAtomicScientists
April14,2016
Interview
FormerUSambassadortoRussiaMichaelMcFaul
ByJohnMecklin

ABSTRACT
Inthisinterview,formerUSambassadortoRussiaMichaelMcFaul
discussesUS-Russianrelationsandhowtheymightbeimproved,given
RussianPresidentVladimirPutin'ssuspiciousviewsofUSintentions.

UntilhisreturntotheUnitedStatesin2014,MichaelMcFaulwastheUS
ambassadortoRussia,servingfortwoyearsinthatpostasrelations
betweenthetwocountrieswentfromtensetodreadful.Duringhis
ambassadorship-andinthreeprecedingyearsasaspecialassistantto
thepresidentontheNationalSecurityCouncil-McFaulplayedamajor
roleintheObamaadministration'sapproachtoPutin'sRussia,first
helpingtodriveanattempted"reset"ofUS-Russianrelationsandthen
tryingtodealwitheventsthatessentiallymadetheresetobsolete:
Moscow'sannexationofCrimeaanditssemi-stealthyinvasionofEastern
Ukraine.

McFaulreturnedtoacademiain2014,butheremainsdeeplyengagedwith
US-Russianpolicy,servingasthedirectorandaseniorfellowat
StanfordUniversity'sFreemanSpogliInstituteforInternational
Studies,aseniorfellowattheHooverInstitution,andaprofessorof
politicalscience.He'salsobeenaninformaladviseronRussianand
EuropeanaffairstotheHillaryClintonpresidentialcampaign.

McFaulspokewithBulletineditorinchiefJohnMecklininJanuary,as
theUSpresidentialprimarieswerekickingoff,thesituationinSyria
continuedtobecomplexandappalling,andtheWestandRussiaremained
atloggerheadsoverUkraine.

BAS:WhatdoyouthinkisthebestwayforwardfortheUnitedStates,
theWest,NATO?Istherereallyanythingtodo?Orshouldwejustbe
waitingforPutintobeoutofthepicture,

McFaul:Well,Iwouldfirstsay,thebestwaytoimproveUS-Russian
relationsisforPutintorethinksomeoftheprovocativethingshe's
done,right?Attheendoftheday,he'stheguywhoannexedCrimea.We
didn'tcausethatconfrontation.He'sthepersonwhodecidedtosupport
theseseparatistsinEasternUkraine.Andtheseareviolationsof
internationallaw,severalofthem,bytheway,treatiesthatRussiahas
signed.Andthoushallnotannexterritory-that'skindofa21st
centurynorm.Itmayhavebeenapracticeahundredyearsago,butit
shouldn'tbeapracticeinthe21stcentury.

Andsotheactionreallycomesonhisside,itseemstome,beforeyou
haveachanceforamorecooperativerelationshipwithourcountry.And
atthesametime,Iwouldjustsaythat,whenthere'snotanaspiration
for"reset2.0,"butjustanaspirationtofocusonaconcreteproblem,
weofcoursecanandshouldcontinuetoworkwiththeRussianswhenit
servesournationalinterest.Andsotheprospectsfornegotiating
somethinginSyria,they'reprobablyprettylow,thoseprobabilities,
butweshouldengagewithRussia,astheObamaadministrationisdoing,
totrytomakethathappen.

SamewiththeimplementationoftheMinskagreement[tohaltthewarin
EasternUkraine].I'dactuallythinktheprobabilitiesforUkraineare
higherthantheyareforSyriarightnow.Butweshouldengageintalk
andtrytoseekthoseoutcomeswhentheybecomeavailable.

BAS:Well,I'mjustcuriousaboutthat.Onwhatdoyoubasewhatyou
justsaid,thenotionthattheRussiansmightactuallydosomething
aboutUkraine?Fromtheoutsideitlookslike,no,they'renotaboutto
giveCrimeaback,ordoanythingabouttheeasternpartofUkraine,
exceptwhatthey'vebeendoing.Doyouknowsomethingelse.

McFaul:We'reontherecord,right?

BAS:I'mrecording,yes.

McFaul:SoIwouldjustsaythis,thattheRussianeconomyhadoneof
itsworstyearsinadecadelastyear.Thereisasensethatit'snot
goingtobeeasytogetbackontrack.Andthereisadebatenow
unfoldinginRussia,quietly,notabigdebate,mostlyanelitedebate.
Butthereisadebate,andsomeprominentpeoplesometimesmakeit
public,likeHermanGrefofSberbank[Russia'slargestbank]didjust
lastweek,thatmaybewe'vegonetoofarhere,andthatwhatarewe
reallygetting?Hedidn'tsaythisexactlyIdon'twanttoputwords
intoHermanGref'smouth.ButwhatIwouldsay,lookingatthisdebate,
isthattherearesome[inRussia]whothinksanctionsreliefismore
importantthancontinuingtokeepthisfesteringquasi-civilwargoing
inEasternUkraine.

Idon'twanttojudgetheoutcome.Idon'twanttopretendIknowwhat
Putin'sthinkingabout.Butthefactthatthedebateishappening,that
atthehighestlevels,includingwithPutinfromtimetotime,USand
EuropeanofficialsaretalkingwithRussiansaboutthat.Otherlittle
thingsthathavehappenedrecently-where[USStateDepartment]
AssistantSecretaryVictoriaNulandmetinKaliningradwithValadislav
Surkov,aKremlinadvisor,totalkaboutthesethings.That'snew.That
wasn'thappeningjustsixmonthsago.

AndsoIdon'twanttogetaheadofmyskisandbetoooptimistic,butI
seeactivitywithrespecttotryingtoresolvetheconflictinEastern
Ukraine.NotCrimea-Iwanttopointthatout.Crimeaisreallynot
beingdiscussed.ButIseemoreactivitythanjustayearago,and
whetheritleadstoresultsornot,Ican'tpredict.Buttherearemore
attemptstotrytoresolveitthantherewerebefore.

BAS:WhatisyourgeneralassessmentofPutin?Ishesomebodywhowould
listentootherpeoplesuggestingthathechangepoliciesinUkraine?
Again,lookingfromoutside,itseemstomehe'sgotaworldviewthat
theWesthasbeenprogressivelytryingtoessentiallyoverthrowhis
government.Wouldhelistentootherssaying,"Yeah,butweneedtocalm
downtheUkrainethingformoney'ssake?"

McFaul:Well,hemostcertainlyhasthatworldview.Ithinkthat's
right.Imean,I'velistenedtohimpersonallydescribeit.Sohedoes
assignthismotivationtoWesternleaders,includingPresidentObama,
and,whenIwasambassador,tomepersonally.Justasweinhisview
havefomentedregimechangeintheArabworld,andthenthecolor
revolutionsbeforethat,andthenafterthatinRussiaandUkraine,he
seesusorheassignstousthatkindofbothambitionandcapability-
grosslyoverstatedandinaccurateinmymind,Ijustwanttomakethat
clear.It'sallinhismind,becausewewerenotfomentingrevolutionin
EgyptortheseotherplacesandmostcertainlynotinRussiaorUkraine.
Butthat'shisworldview,that'sright.Iagreewiththat.Andthat's
notgoingtochange.Nobody'sgoingtoconvincehimotherwiseatthis
stageinhispoliticalcareer.

Atthesametime,hedoesfaceeconomicchallenges.Andhe'sasmart
enoughguytospeakwiththosewhoworryabouttheeconomyinakindof
rationalpragmaticway.Andsoyou'vegottodealwiththat,
irrespectiveofwhatyouthinktheAmericansaredoingornotdoing.And
thatIthinkisthedebateunderwayinRussiarightnow.

BAS:SomehavesuggestedthatPutin'slostconnectionwithrealityI
thinkthosewere[GermanChancellor]AngelaMerkel'swords.Imean,you
don'tseemtohavethatviewofhim.Youthinkofhimasquiterational.

McFaul:No.Iwanttobeclearaboutthat.Ithinkyoucanhavetwo
impulsesatthesametime.First,tomakeeverybodyreallysimpleis-
frommyexperienceingovernment,it'sthebiggestflawthatwe
academicshave.Like,he'sarationalactor,orhe'snot.Itturnsout
thatmostpeople,includingmanyAmericanleadersthatIobserve,have
bothofthoseimpulses.We'renotjustrealistsandneocons.Youknow,
there'samixofthingsthatpeoplewant.Andsometimes[ideasin]the
mixofwhatyouwantclash,right?Andthefactthatyouhavetwodual
impulsesthatclashdoesn'tmakeyoucrazyitjustmeansyouhavetwo
differentpreferences,right?

Tomakethislessabstract:Igainedweightasanambassador,right?I
wanttoloseweight.ThatisanobjectiveIseek.Andyetifyouputa
cookieinfrontofme,I'mlikelytotakeabiteofit,evenifit's
contradictingthatothergrandgoalthatIhave.Thatdoesn'tmakeme
crazythat'skindofhumannature.AndIwouldsaythesameabout
Putin.PutincanbesuspiciousoftheWestandwillbealongthelines
wejusttalkedabout.Andattimes,whenhethinksitmeetsanother
objectivethathealsoseeks,hewillbewillingtoengageanddodeals
withus.Aswesawbefore,whenwewerehavinganincrediblyheated
debatewiththeRussianswhenIwasinthegovernmentaboutthenature
ofthechallengetotheAssadregime.Andhethoughtweweresupporting
regimechange.Andweweretryingtosupportapoliticalsolution.And
wenevercouldcometoagreementonthatquestion,atleastnotyet.And
evenamidstallthattension,wealsodidthedealonremovingchemical
weaponsfromSyria,right?

Sohe'scapableofthat-Idon'tknowwhatyouwouldcallit-
compartmentalization,maybe,whereyoucanstillhavethatviewbutalso
cooperateonsomething.Andlet'sjustbeclear.Ifheeverdidreally
leanintoenforcetheMinskAgreementanddothethingsthatRussiaand
theirsurrogatesinEasternUkrainewouldhavetodo,ofcoursehewould
frameitas,"Well,weachievedvictory,andsonowwecandothese
things."Hewouldnotsay,"BecauseObamaandMerkelputpressureonme,
I'venowchangedmypolicy."Hewouldneverspeakinthosetermstohis
peoplebackhome.

BAS:AretherethingstheUnitedStatescoulddotohelphimsaveface
inthatway?

McFaul:Youknow,Ithinkthepolicyhasbeenveryclearandconsistent.
AndIleftthegovernmentacoupleyearsago,butIthinktheideathat
ifyouannexacountryandyousupportaproxyindependencecampaignin
thecountry,thereshouldbeapricetopayforthat.AndI'mimpressed
bythefactthat[theObamaadministration]managedtogetsuch
comprehensivesanctionsandtoholdtheminplace.That'snotaneasy
diplomatictasktokeeptheminplace.
AndI'mimpressedbytheadministration'sveryrational,non-emotional
statementthatitrepeatedlymakes,whichis,"Ifthisaccordis
implemented,thenwewillliftthesanctionsthatweputinplacein
responsetothisinterventioninEasternUkraine."Ithinkthat'sthe
correctway.SoPutinknowsexactlywhathe'sgetting.
MypersonalassessmentoftheMinskaccordis-Ithinkthat'sapretty
weakdeal.Ithinkit'snotagreatdealfortheUkrainians,frankly.
But,youknow,itwasnegotiated.ThepresidentofUkrainesignedit,so
there'snotawaytorenegotiatethat.ButIsaythatbecauseIdon't
thinkitwillbethathardforPutintosellitbackhomeasan
achievementforRussia.

BAS:I'vehadalotofpeopleexpressconcerntomeaboutthenumberand
kindofmilitaryexercisesthatNATOandtheUnitedStatesandRussia
areengagedin.Andinreadingupforthisinterview,Inoticedyou've
advocatedthatsomedefensiveweaponsbeprovidedtoUkraine,andthat
moretroopsbestationedinNATOcountriesthatareundergreatest
threatfromRussia.Howdoyouseethedangerofanyofthisactually
escalating,becomingwhatwealldon'twant,somekindofshootingwar?
Whereisthebalancebetween,okay,weshouldshowtheRussiansthat
theycan'tjustwalkintotheBaltics,butatthesametimenotcreate
situationsthatcouldactuallyleadtowar.

McFaul:Well,thebestwaytopreventwarintheBalticstatesisto
makeitjustimpossibleforPutintoconsidergoingintoandinvadinga
NATOcountry.HereIagreewithRonaldReagan,peacethroughstrength.
Whichistosay,ifit'sambiguouswhatourcommitmentis,tome
ambiguityincreasestheprobabilityofconflictwithrespecttoourNATO
allies.It'snottheotherwayaround.Ithinkinadifferenttimeone
wouldarguedifferentthings,right?Therewasatimenottoolongago
whenIwasinthegovernmentwhereIdidn'tseetheneedforsomeof
theseexercisesbecausewewereinamuchmorecooperativetimewith
Russia.[Then-RussianPresidentDmitri]MedvedevcametotheNATOsummit
andlistenedin2010andsaidbasicallytheColdWar'sover,andwecan
cooperatewiththeNATOalliance.Thatwasjustfiveyearsago,bythe
way.Weweretalkingaboutcooperatingonmissiledefense.

Sointhatkindofera,theideaofmakingmorecredibleour[NATO]
Article5commitmentsdidnotseemnecessary.ButPutininvadeda
country.Imean,heannexedterritoryinEurope.Thatdemandsa
response.Sothattomemeansthatonehastomakethosecommitments
lookmorecredibleatatimewhenthey'vebeendrifting,andpeoplehave
beenuncertain.Withrespecttothealliance,Ithinkthatthat'sthe
wayweavoidwar.

Andbytheway,somepeopletalkaboutRussiacomingintotheBaltic
statesIthinkthat'saprettylowprobability.Gettingbackagainto
thethingswetalkedaboutearlier,Idon'tthinkPutin'sthatcrazy.
Butwewanttoreducetheambiguityasmuchaswecan.

BAS:YoutalkedearlieraboutevenwiththishugedivideoverUkraine
andtosomedegreeSyria,theremaybeotherareasthatRussiaandthe
UnitedStatescouldstilltalkandreachagreement.Howdoyouview
nucleararmscontrol?Isthatsomethingthatcancontinueatallbefore
Ukraineissolved?Ornot?

McFaul:Idon'tthinkithastodowithUkraine.WhenIwasinthe
government,wehadaveryclearpolicyofnolinkage,right?Very
controversialwithsomeofourcritics,Iknow,butwebelieved,again,
borrowingfromtheReaganadministration-that'swheretheseideas,at
leastforme,camefrom-thatifweweregoingtohaveprogressonarms
control,wehadtodelinkthatfromotherissues,whetherit'sUkraine
todayorbackthenitwouldhavebeensomeotherissues.Andthatwas
ourfirmpolicy.And,wegottheNewSTARTTreatydone.Iwaspartof
thatteam.Butwediditindependentlyofotherthingsgoingoninthe
relationship.Ithinkthatneedstobethestrategymovingforward.I
thinkitwouldbestrangetosaythatuntilyouleaveCrimea,we'renot
goingtodomorearmscontrol.Iwouldn'tsignuptothatkindoflinkage.

ButIwouldsaytheprobabilitiesofanewagreementanytimesoonare
nexttozero.That'sessentiallybecausetheRussiansdon'twantto
engage.They'rehappywiththenewSTARTtreaty."Happy"isastrong
word.Theyhavelearnedtolivewithitandhaveacquiescedtoit.But
theideaofgoingtolowernumbersandstartingnegotiations,theydon't
wanttodo.Infact,theymadeitclearwellbeforeUkraine,whenIwas
stillinthegovernment,thattheyweren'tinterestedinanotherround
ofnegotiations.Withonecaveat:Whattheywouldalwayssay,"Well,as
longaswebegintotalkaboutlimitsondefensiveweaponsandmissile
defenses,thenwecouldstarttohavethatconversation."

AndtheObamaadministrationwasnotwillingtoacceptthatkindof
precondition,andI'mnotthatoptimistic.Idon'tknowallthe
[presidential]candidates,butIwouldthinkit'dberatherdifficultin
2017tobeginasetofnegotiationsoveranewtreatythatwouldinclude
limitsonourmissiledefensesystemsatthismomentintime.

BAS:Wouldn'tthatmoreorlessprecludeanyarmscontrolagreements?

McFaul:Yes.That'swhatIsaid.It'snotbecauseofUkraine,that'smy
point.It'sbecauseoftheseotherdynamicsinthestrategicbilateral
relationship.

BAS:I'mgoingtoaskaquestionthatmayjustbetoopoliticalforyou
togetinto.Ifso,justsayso.Butwhatareyourthoughtsaboutsome
waytonudgetheAmericanpresidentialelectoralprocesstowardmore
realisticdiscussionsofmajorinternationalaffairsissues,suchas
US-Russianrelations?Oristhatjusthopingfortheimpossible,thatat
leastinageneralelectiontherecouldberealisticdiscussionofoptions?

McFaul:Well,italldependsonwhatyoumeanbytheworld"realistic,"
becausethere'sactuallyalotofvariation,ifyouaddTrumptothe
equation,abouthowtodealwithRussiainthedebate.Myassessmentis
thatwhatTrumpissayingabouthisstrategyvis-a-visPutinisvery
unrealistic.SoIdon'tknowwhereyoucomedownandthewayyoudefine
realistic,buttheideathathe'sjustgoingtoforgetaboutCrimea,and
we'regoingtogetalongwithPutin,andI'mgoingtododealsbecauseI
knowhowtododeals-thatdoesn'tsoundveryrealistictomeor
pragmaticintermsofthestrategy.

Conversely,theotherextreme-thatI'mnotgoingtotalktotheguy
becausehe'sathug-thatalsodoesn'tsoundrealistictome.That
doesn'tsoundlikeastrategythatadvancesAmericannationalinterests.

Iguessintermsofjusttactics,wheneverI'maskedbyjournalistswho
actuallyinteractwiththesecandidatesfromtimetotime-forme,when
Ilistentothedebate,Iwanttoknownotwhatthegoalis.That's
easy.Anybodycansetoutsomegoal.Therealquestionis,"Howareyou
goingtoachievethatoutcome?"Right?Andtothatend,youalways,in
myview,havetohavearealisticconversation:"Well,whatwouldyoudo
differentlythanwhatthecurrentadministrationisdoingthatwould
thengiveusanyreasontobelievethatyouwouldbemoresuccessful
withwhatyou'retryingtodo?"

ManycandidatestalkaboutISIS,right?"We'regoingtobombISIS.We're
goingtodefeatISIS."Well,tellmeexactlyhowyou'regoingtodefeat
ISIS.HowmanytimesareyougoingtoattackISIS?Doyouevenknowhow
manytimestheadministrationhas?I'llbetyoualotofpeopledon't
knowthattherehavebeenover10,000attacksagainstISISsofar.And
theprogram,OperationInherentResolve,ismeasuredinthebillions[of
dollars]already.Soyou'regoingtodoublethat?You'regoingtotriple
that?Andthentelluswhyyouthinkthatwillachievetheendsyouwant.

IwouldsaythesamethingaboutPutin.Soyou'regoingtobetoughwith
Putin?Well,whatdoesthatmean?Whatexactlydoesitmeantobetough
withPutin?TherearemoresanctionsonmoreRussiansandmoreRussian
companiestodaythanprobablyatanypointinthe200-yearhistoryof
US-Russianrelations.Soyou'regoingtotriplethat?Whatdoesitmean
tobetoughbeyondwherewe'reattoday?

ButamIoptimisticthatwe'regoingtohavethatconversation?No,I'm
notoptimistic.

BAS:Itsurewouldbenicetohaveinsomeofthesedebatesthe
moderatorsbeissueandareaexperts,asopposedtoacablenewstalking
head.Butthat'sprobablyafar-fetchedwishalso.
I'vetaken25minutesoutofyourlifealreadyhere.ButIwanttoask
onemorequestion.

McFaul:Allright,sir.

BAS:TheotherdayGeorgeShultzandBillPerrydidaBulletinevent
thereatStanford.Theywerebothdescribingasortoftrack-two
diplomacykindofthingthattheyweregoingtohavetheyhadhad
variouslevelsofRussianofficialscomevisitStanford,andtheywere
goingtohavemore.Andtheyweresuggestingthatonewaytoimprovethe
relationshipwas,ashappenedbackwhentheSovietUnionwasdissolving,
tohavemoretrack-twoactivity,moreexchangeattheexpertlevelin
academiaandatthescientistlevel.Whatdoyouthinkaboutthat?Does
thatactuallyeverhelpanything?

McFaul:I'malwaysabigfanoftracktwoengagements,orwhatIwould
callsociety-to-societyengagements.Tracktwooftentimeshassome
pretensionsthatwe'regoingtotalk,andthenwe'regoingtogotoour
governmentsandtellthemwhattodo.AndI'mallforthataswell.I
participatedinthosemeetingsthatGeorgeandBilljustorganizedlast
week.ButIjustthinkmoreconnectivitybetweensocietiesingeneralis
goodfortheAmericannationalinterests.Becausewe'regoingtohave
disagreementswiththeRussiangovernmentandwiththeRussianpeople
aboutsubstantiveissues.Ithinkwecouldreducethem,butwe're
inevitablygoingtohavesomeofthose,nomatterifPutin'sthereor
somebodyelse.

Whatwecan'tallowistohavedisagreementsbasedonbadinformationor
misperception.AndIseethatalotrightnowinUS-Russianrelations.I
witnesseditwhenIwasinthegovernment.IwitnesseditwhenIwas
ambassador.Anditdrovemenuts.Youknow,whenwe'rearguingabout
whethertwoplustwoequalsfiveorfour,that'snogood.Thatmakesthe
biggerproblemsthatweneedtosolvenearlyimpossible.Soanytime
therecanbemoreinteractionbetweenscientists,betweenstudents,
betweenformergovernmentofficialsinthekindoftracktwoway,I
thinkbothofoursocietiesinthelongrunwillbebetteroff.
[returntoContents]<#n0>

#24
TheAmericanInterest
www.the-american-interest.com
April19,2016
HOWTHEWESTMISJUDGEDRUSSIAPART13
TheKremlin'sTriadastheMeansofSurvival
TheWestneedstounderstandthattheRussianSystemiswillingtofight
foritssurvival,andthatthisfightcouldtakemanydifferentforms.
ByLILIASHEVTSOVA
LiliaShevtsovaisanonresidentseniorfellowintheCenteronthe
UnitedStatesandEurope,partoftheForeignPolicyProgramatthe
BrookingsInstitution.FormerlywiththeCarnegieEndowmentfor
InternationalPeace.

Editor'sNote:HowdoRussiaandtheWestseeoneanother?Whatarethe
experts'viewsontheconfrontationbetweenRussiaandtheWest?Howdo
thepunditsexplaintheRusso-UkrainianwarandRussia'sSyriangambit?
WhataretherootsofthemythologyaboutRussiaintheWest,andwhy
hastheWestfailedtopredictandunderstandRussia'strajectory?This
isthe13thandfinalessayinaseriesthatseekstoanswerthese
questions.

Civilizationsinastateofdecayhavetoimprovisetostayalive,but
theseimprovisationsoftenhavedramaticimplicationsfortherestof
theworldandcanevenacceleratedemiseratherthanpostponingit.

Russiatodayisexhibitingafunnellogicofakindonecouldciteasan
exampleofsuicidalstatecraft.First,theKremlincreatesaproblemand
then,intryingtodealwithit,provokesevenmoreseriousproblems.
TheCrimeaannexationinMarch2014wasthepointofdeparturefora
ruinous,seeminglypredestinedpathforRussiaunderthecurrent
politicalregimeithardlyseemspossiblethatRussiacanchangecourse.
TheannexationwasfollowedbyRussia'sundeclaredwaronUkraine,which
distractedtheworld'sattentionfromCrimeabutyieldedgrave(domestic
andinternational)consequencesforRussia.TheKremlinbegantolook
forexitfromtheUkrainiancrisisandsodraggedRussiaintotheSyrian
quagmire.

TheSyria"project"wasintendedtoreturnRussiatotheglobalMega
League.1Amarginalizedstatecan'tbeasuperpower,whichforRussia
constitutesoneofthekeypillarsofthepersonalizedpowersystem.
Timeisacriticalfactor:AEuropeconsumedwithitsownchallengesand
alameduckU.S.PresidentgavetheKremlinwhatitviewedasawindow
ofopportunity.TheKremlinpolicyof"coercivedating"-thatis,
rampinguppressureinordertoforcetheobjectofdesireintoa
dialogueorcooperation-hadtopersuadetheWesternleaderstoagreeto
anewbargaininordertostaveoffanotherroundofRussianbulldozing.

U.S.-RussiacooperationonIrancreatedanimpressionthatthesame
wouldbecontinuedonSyria.ZbigniewBrzezinskiwrote,
"Onemighthavethought...thatthenextphaseincopingwiththeSyrian
problemmightinvolvearenewedefforttoresolveit....Instead,Moscow
haschosentointervenemilitary,butwithoutpoliticalortactical
cooperationwiththeUS....AtbestitwasadisplayofRussianmilitary
incompetenceatworst,evidenceofadangerousdesiretohighlight
Americanpoliticalimpotence."

IwouldaddthattherewasonemorereasonforMoscow'sSyrianforay:
Obama'srejectionoftheKremlin's"GrandAnti-TerroristCoalition"
idea,whichforcedMoscowtoturnto"coercivedating."

TheKremlinwarinSyrianotonlyaddedtothedestabilizationofthe
MiddleEastbutalsoincreasedtheterroristthreatinRussiaandfor
Russia.AfterRussiagotitselfinvolvedinSyria,itsconfrontation
withTurkey,whichhasitsownpowerfulinterestsintheregion,was
unavoidable(thoughunexpectedfortheKremlinnonetheless).

InMarch2016Moscowannouncedthepulloutof"itsmainforces"from
Syria,anannouncementthatonceagainbaffledtheworld.TheRussian
militarycampaigndidnotachievetheKremlin'sproclaimedgoals:
strengtheningtheSyrianstateandpreventingIslamicradicalismfrom
spreading.ButtheKremlinhassucceeded,atleastpartially,withits
realagenda:Ithasbrokenitsinternationalisolationandforcedthe
Westtoacceptitasanactorthatcan'tbeignored,andithaspushed
theUkrainiancrisistotheperipheryoftheinternationalscene.
Moreover,Moscowhasreturnedtousingmilitaryleverageasan
instrumentofinternationalrelations.TheendoftheColdWarproved,
however,howdisastrousmilitaryescalationcanbeforasysteminan
advancedstateofdecay.ItcouldbeevenmoredevastatingforRussia,
whichisevenmoredependentontheWestthantheSovietUnion.

Hence,theoutcomeoftheKremlin'ssurvivalescapadesisuncertain.On
theonehand,itsforeignpolicyhasbeensuccessfulinbuildingnew
domesticlegitimacyatatimewhenitsinternalresourceshavebeen
crumbling.Ontheotherhand,ithasbecomeevidentthatthenexus
betweendomesticandforeignpoliciesistoocostlyandcouldsetoffa
timebomb.TheKremlintodayhastodealwithanundeclaredwarwith
Ukraine,anongoingwarinSyria,andaconfrontationwithTurkey.In
caseofendingtheseconflicts,theKremlinhastolookforanew
justificationforits"nationatwar"survivalmodel.Meanwhile,
Russians,whohaveturnedintoconsumerists,arenotgoingtosacrifice
theirlivingstandardsindefinitelyforwarsandasearchforenemies
thathavenoapparentconnectiontotheirinterests.The
military-patrioticdrughasstartedtowearoff.

Tryingtofindabalancebetweenconfrontationandcooperationwiththe
West,theKremlinoffersconflictingmessages.Fromtimetotimeit
appearstohavedecidedtoswitchtotheroleofPeacemaker."Wearenot
interestedinconfrontationbetweenRussiaandtheWest"isoneof
Lavrov'sfavoriteslogans."DespitetheunfriendlystepsofourWestern
partnerswecontinuetofightagainstmovingdowntotheprimitive
confrontationalmodel,"theRussianForeignMinisterhasrepeatedagain
andagain,doinghisbesttoconvincethefewwhostillbelievethis
rhetoric.

OnehastolistentothewholeRussiansymphony,ofcourse.This
friendlyaccompanimentcan'toverpoweranothermuchlouderandmore
centralmelody:"Russiaisnotgoingtostepback."Russiarefusesto
live"inastateofsemi-occupation,"Putinhaswarned,startingwith
hisfamousFebruary2007speechinMunich.LavrovexplainswhyRussia
hasbeendissatisfied,
"OurWesterncolleagues[havesetonacourseof]preservingtheir
dominationinworldaffairsbyallpossiblemeans,onseizingthe
geopoliticalspaceinEurope....Ateachstageofthecrisis's
development,ourAmericancolleagues,andundertheirinfluence,also
theEuropeanUnion,havebeentakingstepsleadingtoescalation."

ChairmanoftheStateDumaSergeyNaryshkinechoesthis:"TheU.S.is
interestedininstabilitythatgivesthemthepossibilitytocontinue
oldandnewmischief."Peacefulstatements,aren'tthey?Russia'swarin
SyriaanditsconfrontationwithTurkeydemonstratethatMoscowcould
putonthewarhelmetanywhere,atanytime.Butconfrontationisnot
theKremlin'sgoal-notatall!TheRussianrulingteamisnotkamikaze,
evenifitsometimeslooksthisway.Confrontation,orratherthethreat
ofconfrontation,isthemeanstocreateafavorableinternational
environmentfortheRussianSystem,toforcetheWesttoacceptthe
Kremlin'sgameandtojustifytheanti-WesterninsulationofRussian
society.

HereishowPutinexplainshispolicy:Americaisguiltyofallevils
happeningtotheworld,butwearereadytoofferadialogueandgive
themachancetobehave.ThisistheusualPutinstatement:"Attempts
[byWashington,ofcourse]topromoteamodelofunilateral
domination...haveledtoanimbalanceinthesystemofinternationallaw
andglobalregulation,whichmeansthereisathreat,andpolitical,
economicormilitarycompetitionmaygetoutofcontrol...."Butthe
RussianPresidentgiveshopetotheworld:"Forallthedramaofits
currentsituation,Syriacanbecomeamodelforpartnershipinthename
ofcommoninterests,resolvingproblemsthataffecteveryone,and
developinganeffectiveriskmanagementsystem."InhisStateofthe
UnionmessagePutinsaid,"Weneedtostopallourargumentsand
overcomedifferences,andbuildpowerfulfist,aunitedanti-terrorist
front."

ThenewNationalSecurityStrategyofRussia,signedbythePresidenton
December31,2015,showstheverynatureoftheKremlin'spolitical
thinking.ThepriorityfortheRussianauthoritiesisnotthequalityof
lifeofRussiancitizens,butthedefenseofRussia.Butdefenseagainst
whom?Whoaretheenemiesthatforcethestatetospenditsshrinking
resourcesondefenseanddeterrencebutnotonsocialproblems?Itlooks
likethekeythreatis"unsustainabilityoftheglobalandregional
architecture,based,especiallyintheEuro-Atlanticregion,onlyonthe
NorthAtlanticAlliance."ThisisintheKremlin'sviewthekeythreat
toRussia.Whowoulddoubtit!ButtheKremlinisnotgoingtostartan
armsraceoranewColdwarwiththeWest.AstheNationalSecurity
Strategysays,Russia"issupportingstrengtheningoftheengagement
withtheEU"and"isreadyfordevelopmentofrelationswiththeNorth
Atlantictreaty,"andRussia'sgoalisthe"buildingofstrategic
partnershipwiththeUSonthebasisofequalityandcommoninterests."
Butwhatkindof"partnership"ispossiblebetweenRussiaandtheWest,
whoseexpansion"eastward"totheRussianborderallegedlyhasbrought
aboutthecurrentconfrontation?

Somecouldcallthisapproachpoliticalschizophrenia.Othersmayseeit
asdemonstrationofthecognitivedissonance.Iwouldrefrainfromthe
medicalterminologyandarguethatasoupofincompatibleingredientsis
thebestwaytoportraytheKremlin'sTriadparadigm:"Tobewiththe
WesttobeinsidetheWestandtobeagainsttheWest."ThisTriad,
withanemphasisonthefirsttwoelements,helpedtheKremlintoplay
theWest-andquitesuccessfully-duringtheprevious25years.Annexing
Crimea,theKremlinhadtobelievethattheWestwouldbeangrybutin
theendwouldbeabletostomachthenewgeographicallandscape.It
couldhavegonethisway,ifnotfortheaggressionagainstUkraine
Westernpatienceprovedlimited.

TheWorldofAmbiguity

TheKremlin'supdatedinternationalagendasoonrevealeditself.As
Putinsaid,the"Ukrainecrisis"isnotreallyaboutUkraineatall:"It
hasemergedinresponsetotheattemptsoftheUSAanditsWestern
allieswhoconsideredthemselves'winners'oftheColdWartoimpose
theirwilleverywhere."InMunichin2015,Lavrovacknowledgedthat
UkraineistheinstrumentthatshouldforcetheWestto"negotiateanew
securitysystemonthebasisofre-confirmingtheHelsinkiprinciples."
(Indeed,thereisanelementofhypocrisyinthesestatements:Ukraine
hasfortheKremlinanindependentvalueasanelementofRussia'sgalaxy.)

InDecember2015,intheinterviewforthemovieGlobalOrder,Putin
madeclearhispositiononthewarinSyria,statingthat"ISISisnota
crucialfactor"intheKremlin'sinternationalagenda.Thekeychallenge
fortheKremlin,Putindeclared,is"thegeopoliticalstruggle"andthe
needtoestablish"commonrules"basedon"internationallaw."(One
could,ofcourse,explorehisorhersenseofironybycontemplating
callstoobserveinternationallawfromtheRussianleader.)Hence,one
couldconcludethattheRussianauthoritiesthinkthatitistheright
momenttoforcetheWesttostartdiscussingthenewworldorder.To
debatetheepicdilemma-WarorPeace,orhowtodealwithGlobal
Disorder-isawell-knownSoviettrick.Itcouldtakedecadesbeforethe
Westernpartnersdiscoverthattheyhavebeenengagedwithsomeone
sellingair.Butthenagainperhapssomeofthemcouldfindthisprocess
profitabletoo.

AstheGermansocialistEdwardBernsteininthe19thcenturysaid,"The
processiseverythingandthegoalisnothing!"Leninlaterlikedto
paraphraseNapoleon("Ons'engageetpuitonvoit"):"Let'sgetfighting
andseewhathappens!"WeknowwhattheoutcomeofLenin'sprinciplewas
forRussiaandtheworldinthe20thcentury.Todaythisrecipeisthe
tacticofchoiceforapoliticalregimethatisnotreadytolosebut
hasnothingtooffer.

SomanytimestheRussianpoliticaleliteanditspunditscomplained
thatthecurrentorderisunjust,humiliatingforRussia,andprovoking
a"neo-Versaillessyndrome."TodaytheKremlindemandsareadjustmentto
theglobalrulessoastogiveRussiaamoredignifiedroleonthe
internationalscene.Thisisit!The"pivot"toChinaandallthefairy
talesabouttheBRICSbecominganalternativepolehavejustbeen
instrumentstopersuadetheWesterncapitalstorenewtheirengagement
withMoscow."Otherwisewe'lldoitwithBeijing!"theywarn,but
withoutmuchconvictionrecently.TheinterventioninSyriaandconflict
withTurkeyhavetogiveadditionalpersuasivenesstotheKremlinoffer.
Ofcourse,thenewdialoguehastobebuiltontheKremlin'sterms.The
Kremlin'sideaofdialogueisbasedonthebeliefthattheWesthas
historicallyexhausteditself,andthemomenthascomewhenRussiacan
suggestwhatLavrovrecentlydescribedas"movementtowardpartnership
ofcivilizations."True,hedoesnotexplainhowthispartnershipcanbe
achievediftheRussianleadershipcontinuesitsanti-Westerncrusade.
ButiftheWestisnotreadyfor"partnership",newattemptstopersuade
itwillfollow.

Butwhatistheblueprintofthe"newworldorder"suggestedbythe
Kremlin?Itisintentionallyvague.Putinhasbeenconstantlyreturning
toideaoftheYaltasettlement,whichlegitimizedareasofglobal
influence.Butdoeshereallybelieveinpossibilityofredrawingthe
bordersandreturningEasternEurope,togetherwiththepost-Soviet
space,intoMoscow'spocket?OrdoeshebelievethattheWest,together
withIranandtheSunnistates,willagreetodividetheMiddleEast
withRussia?Hardly.

Rhetoricmeansnothing.TheKremlinispursuinganexemplary
post-postmodernpolicycomprisedofincompatibleelementsandblurred
linesbetweenprinciplesandnorms,warandpeace,rightandwrong,
realityandimitation,allyandenemy,lawandlawlessness,andinternal
andexternalconflict.Thestate-intrudercouldeasilystartthe
struggleforpeace.Thetopicof2015Valdaiconferencewas"Societies
BetweenWarandPeace:OvercomingtheLogicofConflictinTomorrow's
World."TheKremlin,afterhavinginitiatedmilitaryconflict,has
decidedtoofferitsvisionofhowtoestablishalastingpeace.Very
Putinesque!(AndtheWesternpunditryreadilytookpartinthisKremlin
exercise.)

TheRussianSyrianwithdrawalisonemoreexampleoftheKremlin's
"post-postmoderntechnique."Itwasunexpected,anditcreated
uncertaintyastowhetheritwasatotalpullout,apartialone,oreven
notapulloutatall!2Hereyouare:theKremlinisenforcingits
versionoftheHobbesianworldorderithastobebasednoton
internationaltreatiesandtrust,butontheambiguity,uncertaintyas
totheintentionsoftheactors,andtheirreadinessforsurprise
breakthroughs.ThisorderhasnothingincommonwithYaltaorthe
EuropeanConcert!Inthosetimes,thearchitectsofthoseorders
followedtheiragreements,oratleasttheydidnotwanttobeblamed
fornotfollowingthem.3NowtheKremlinwantstohavetherightto
interprettherules.TheRussianrulingcorporationalsowantstohave
thepossibilityofinfluencingtheWestfrominsideoftheWestern
communityandusingallbenefitsofglobalizationandengagement.Global
OrderalaRusse!Machiavellilookslikeaschoolboycomparedtothe
Kremlin'stechnologists.

TheworldordertheKremlinofferstodayisevenmoreambivalentthan
thepost-communistworld,butthisisadifferenttypeofambivalence
thatreliesonthereadinessoftheilliberalactorforcoercive
pressure.ThefactthatMerkelandHollandetacitlyacceptedRussiaas
bothanintruderandamoderatorintheconflictoverUkrainegavethe
KremlintheimpressionthattheWestwouldsoonerorlaterendorsethe
approachithasbeenseeking.

Moscow'sSyrianadventuremerelyreinforcesthispattern,whichisbased
onanassumption(orbelief)thattheWest-especiallyEurope-willbe
forcedintheendtoplaytheKremlin'sgame.AsSergeiLavrovstressed
attheMunichSecurityconferenceinFebruary2016,theWesternpartners
aremoving"towardourunderstanding,"andthisis"veryencouraging."4
WelcometotheWorldofFuzziness!

Canthischimeralive?AsAndrewWoodwrote,anynewsecurity
architecture"wouldrequiresomecommonunderstandingoftheunderlying
facts".But"thatisnowabsentbetweenRussiaandtheWest".Besides,
Woodadds,suchconstruction"wouldalsorequiresomedegreeof
confidencebetweentheleadersofcountiestryingtobuildsucha
system,andthattooisnowabsent."

Butwhataboutthepragmatists'refrain,theonethattheyhavebeen
singingevenloudersinceRussia'sSyriaforay,about"common
interests"?BoboLo,associatefellowatChathamHouse,respondsto
thosewho"deludethemselves"thattheyshare"commoninterests"with
theKremlin:"Thedivergenceismuchmorefundamentalanddeeprooted.
NotonlyistheredisagreementoverRussia'sroleintheworld:Thereis
awideningchasmonglobalgovernance,internationallaw,andevenon
whatconstitutesstatebehavior."EventheWesternpragmatists,recently
staunchsupportersofjoint"strategicvision,"admit,"Weinterpret
differentlykeyprinciplessuchassovereignty,territorialintegrity,
andself-determination:wedifferoverwhatconstitutesthelegitimate
useofforcewedisagreeaboutlegitimacyofsphereofinfluence....
Toughcompetitionwasandremainsinevitable."Ithasbeenapparentfor
sometime,hasn'tit?

TheKremlin'stoolkithasmanyinstrumentstopursueitsagenda.One
hastobepreparedfortheKremlintosayonethingandmeananother,or
tomeannothingatall.Oldsymbolsandpatternsareinterpretedby
Moscowaccordingtoitscurrentgoals,aswithitsreferencestothe
"Yaltaarrangement."

Moreover,theKremlinisreadytobreakchina.ThisishowtheGerman
historianKarlSchlogelinterpretedPutin'sbehavior,"'Idon'twantto
acceptyouroldrulesofthegame'-andhehitsyouintheface."It's
enoughtoprovokeconsternationandshockamongWesternpartners
accustomedtopoliteness,correctness,anddiplomaticroutineoriented
towardcompromiseandmutualconcessions.

DoesPutinbelieveinfeasibilityofhisnew"GrandProject,"orishe
playingintheglobalcasino?Itdoesnotmatterwhathebelieves
anymorethepopularexercises,"WhatdoesPurtinthink"and"Whois
MisterPutin,"areawasteoftimebecausebothitsrhetoricandits
actionsaredesignedtoimitate,tomanipulate,andtohide
disorientationandhelplessness.I'llbettheKremlintechnologists
wouldloveustocontinueourendless"Putiniana"tryingtoguessthe
motivationsoftheKremlinbossinsteadofdeliberatingonthelogicof
theSystemandtheconsequencesofitsTriadsurvivaltactics.

Therearealotofvariablesthatremainunclear:thedegreetowhich
theKremlinunderstandsrealityandtheimplicationsofitsactionsits
readinessforself-restrainttheWest'sabilitytounderstandthe
Kremlin'sintentionsandputupaunitedfrontandfinally,thegravity
ofRussia'seconomicandsocialcrisisanditsdomesticimpact.Toomany
tippingpointsoreitherMoscow'sortheWest'sinabilitytodealwith
ambiguitycouldbringanotherconfrontationanymomentevenifthetwo
sidesinvolveddonotwantit.

Post-postmodernfuzzinesswouldbeacomfortableorderformanyinthe
West,too-forthosewholoathenormativedogmatism,orwhohavegrown
accustomedtotheseductive(andprofitable!)pragmatismofthepastfew
decades.ThisambiguousorderisthebestenvironmentforRussia's
rentierclasstomaintainitslinkswith"Londongrads"invarious
WesternstateswhilealsoinsulatingRussiansocietyfromWesternnorms
itwouldalsoallowtheRussianregimetobaseitsdomesticlegitimacy
onanti-WesternismwhilekeepingitsseatatthetableintheWest's
institutionsofinternationalgovernance.Thisambiguousworldwould
allowtheRussianSystemtocontaintheWestwithoutworryingaboutthe
threatofcontainmentandsubverttheWestfromwithin.Whatagreat
invention:lowcostsandhighrewards!TheColdWar,bycontrast,wasa
foolishstrategy.Muchbettertoblackmailyourfoeintoparticipating
inyoursurvivalproject.

True,therearetwotrapsintowhichRussiaandtheWestcouldfall
whilefollowingthisstrategy.Thefirstisthattherequirementsof
maintainingFortressRussiamaypreventtheKremlinfromachievinga
GrandBargainwiththeWest.Thesecondtrapis,fromtheWest'spoint
ofview,aCatch-22:AnybargainthatwouldallowtheKremlinto
interprettheglobalrulesofthegameasitchooseswouldunderminethe
coherenceandunityofWesternprinciples.Butrejectingthebargain
couldincitetheKremlinbulltowrecktheWesternChinashop.The
liberaldemocracieshardlyarereadyforaclashwithanuclearfoe.

Thisisadeadlock,andthereappeartobenowayout-atleastaslong
astheWestcontinuestodefendapost-ColdWarstatusquothatno
longerexists.

AreWeReadytoRethinkOutmodedIdeas?

IntheseessaysIhavetriedtopresentasnapshotofthestateof
expertopinioninstudiesofcontemporaryRussiaanditsrelationship
withtheWest,showinghowtheyrelatetoreality.Iregrettosaythat
25yearsagotheexpertsstruggledwithoutmuchsuccesstograspthenew
realitythesameistruetoday.

Thepragmatistshavesofarfailedtopredictandunderstandtheturn
thatRussiamadein2013-14anditsimplicationsforthecountry,for
internationalrelations,forEuropeansecurity,andevenforthe
trajectoryofliberalcivilization.We,thenormativists,havefailedto
alerttheworldofwhatwascoming."We'vebeensurprisedatevery
turn....WeweresurprisedwhentheywentintoCrimea,weweresurprised
whentheywentintoSyria,"saidSenateArmedServicesCommittee
ChairmanJohnMcCain(R-AZ).Iwouldadd:theworldwasequallybaffled
whentheKremlinannouncedthepulloutfromSyria.Surprisehasbeenthe
dominantcollectivereactiontoRussiasofar.FionaHill,directorof
theCenterontheU.S.andEuropeattheBrookingsInstitution:"Putin's
RussiapresentsauniquechallengetotheWestern-backedworldorder"
butrightnow"theWestdoesnotknowhowtorespond."

Weall(theRussianandtheWesternexperts)stillhaveavague
understandingofwhatthedeclineofRussia-thenuclearpetrostate,a
half-frozenempire,andoneofthearchitectsofglobalorder-might
bring.ItremainsunclearwhetherRussianrevisionismwilltriggerthe
creationofaglobalIlliberalInternational(therearesomesignsthat
wealreadyaredealingwithelementsofaglobalauthoritarian
offensive).5Ifitdoes,whatwilltheWesternresponsebe?Weareas
yetunpreparedforthecrisesofotherpost-Sovietsystemsandtheways
theywillaffectthesecurityandbalanceofforcesinEurasia.Itis
alsounclearhowunifiedandcapabletheWesternworldwillbewhenit
comestorespondingtothiscivilizationalandgeopoliticalchallenge.

Manyobserversseemtounderstandthatoldnarrativeshavebeen
exhausted.6Unfortunately,quiteafewamongusaretryingtoreinvent
themselvesmerelybyrecyclingoldrhetoric.We,thenormativists,have
beenunableasofyettofusethemoraldimensionandprincipleswith
thepoliticalinstrumentsapplicabletodecision-making-that,orwehave
beentootimidinourdebateswithopponents.

Fortheirpart,thepragmatistswhostilldominateRussianandEurasian
studiescontinuetobelievethatthemainactors-RussiaandtheWest-can
operatewithinthesamelogicalframeworkandcaninterpretthebalance
ofinterestsandviewconflictresolutionandcrisismanagementinthe
sameway.ButtheoperatorsoftheRussianSystemhaveanentirely
differentunderstandingofreality,andhavedifferentprioritiesand
meanstoachievethem.Asaresult,thepragmatistsfindthemselves
defendingeitherdefunctoroutdatedmodels,andtheiranalysisand
adviceoftenyieldtheoppositeofwhatthey'resupposedto.

Asamatteroffact,thepragmatistsnowfindthemselvesinamore
vulnerablepositionthanthatoftherealistsduringtheColdWar
period.Atthattime,theWestwaspreparedtocontaintheSovietsand
promoteitsprinciplesabroad,whiletheUSSR,atleastinitsfinal
stage,wasreadytoabidebyagreements.Today,however,the
pragmatists,whohaveborrowedtheconceptofbalanceofpowersand
otherrealistaxiomswhilerejectingthenormativedimension,arebeing
disarmedbyaRussianSystemthatisassertingitselfbybreaking
agreementsanddenyingthatithasdoneso,andbyimitatingprinciples.
Realismtodayinthepragmatists'handssoundslikeitcomesstraight
fromtheKremlin'splaybook.Infact,keypragmatistarguments-including
theirdogmason"commoninterests,"theneedtorespondtoRussia's
"grievances"andtheKremlin'sdemandsfor"equality",theirpivotto
geopolitics,theircallsto"accommodate"theKremlin"tosomedegree"
(towhatdegreeexactly?)andunderstanditsrighttohave"areasof
interests"-notonlyhavebeenhelpingtobuildafavorableenvironment
fortheRussianSystemofpersonalizedpowertheyhavealsobeen
disorientingtheKremlinandprovokingitsrecklessnessdomesticallyand
internationally,oftenendingindisasters(forRussiaaswell).Indeed,
thepragmatistsbearatleastpartialresponsibilityfortheKremlin's
latestactions,whicharebasedonthebeliefthattheWestwouldbe
readytoaccommodate-justasthepragmatistspromised!

Untilrecentlythepragmatistshavebeenbuildingtheirdiagnosisand
adviceonthebasisofRussianpollsthatshowskyrocketingapproval
ratingsforPutinandstrongsupportforhisanti-Westernpolicy.These
pollsaresupposedtojustifythepragmatistconclusion:"Youhaveto
takeRussia'asitis.'"ThismeansthatRussiansarehopelessandthey
can'taccepttheWesternnormsthatiswhytheWesthastoacquiesce.
ButhowwouldthepragmatistsexplainRussiatoday,whenRussiansare
growingrestlessandtheirsupportfortheauthoritieshasbegunto
wane?OneoutofeveryfourRussiansadmitstobeingafraidtovoicehis
(orher)truefeelingsaboutthesituationinRussia.Thiscouldmean
thatweshouldtaketheleader'shighapprovalratingswithagrainof
salt.ThepercentageofRussianswhothinkthatthecountryisheadedin
therightdirectionfellfrom64percentinJune2015to45percentin
January2016,andthenumberofRussianswhothinkthatRussiaisonthe
wrongtrackrosefrom22to34percent.Andthisisonlythebeginning
ofthetrend.Willthepragmatistscontinuetocallforaccommodatinga
regimethatislosingsupport?

Thepragmatistsstruggletoexplaintheparadoxes,orrathertraps,the
Kremlinhasbeenbuilding(oftenunexpectedlyforitself).Theyinsist
thatRussia'sactionsareultimatelygroundedinarationalbasis.But
how,then,doesoneexplaintheKremlin'spolitics,whichbrings
Russia'sisolationanddeepensitsinternalcrisis?Pragmatists
constantlyemphasize"theobjectivity"oftheirapproach.Buthowcan
oneclaimtoexplainRussia'sbehaviorifonedismissestheimpactof
norms,history,traditions,domesticdevelopments,andevolutionof
thought?Howusefulisthis"objectivity,"whichboilsdowntoa
descriptiveapproachandclumsyattemptstohideone'sownposition?And
howcanone'sclaimtoprovideaccurateassessmentswhensuch
assessmentsarebasedondatacherry-pickedfrompro-Kremlinsourcesand
fromthepro-Kremlinpunditcommunity?

Indeed,thepragmatistshavetounderstandthattheirtoolkithas
outliveditsusefulnessandisnolongerpersuasive.Buttheytryhard
toreinventshopwornaxioms,evenborrowingfromotherseeminglyalien
ideologicalandphilosophicalarsenals,creatinganunusualmix.The
latestexampleisthevoodoothatKissingerdemonstratedduringhislast
visittoMoscow,whenhehadhisritualmeetingwithPutinanddelivered
alecturethatwaswarmlyreceivedbythepro-Kremlingathering.7

TheRealpolitikgurupresentedtotallyfalseexplanationoftherootsof
thepresentconfrontation,whichallegedlywascausedby"thememoryof
thefirstpost-Sovietdecade,whenRussiasufferedastaggering
socio-economicandpoliticalcrisis,andtheU.S.enjoyeditslongest
periodofuninterruptedeconomicexpansion."This"memory"ofcrisis
duringtheAmericansuccessaccordingtoKissinger"causedallother
policydifferences."Ifthislogiciscorrect,thensoonweshould
anticipateaconfrontationbetweenEurope,whichisexperiencingthe
worstcrisisinitshistory,andAmerica,whichisdoingprettywell!
ButthejewelofKissingerianaisanotheridea.Kissingerarguesthat
thekeygoaltodayistofindacompromisebetweentheAmerican
(Western)perceptionoftheworld,whichreliesonlawsandrules,and
theRussianperception,whichhecalls"geopolitical,"avoidingany
mentionthatthisperceptionrejectstheruleoflaw."Thechallengeof
ourperiodistomergethetwoperspectives-thelegalandthe
geopolitical-inacoherentconcept,"arguestheguru.Thismeansmerging
ruleoflawprincipleswithsubjugationprinciples.Doestheauthorofa
new"philosophicalproblem"believeinthefeasibilityofhissolution?
HemayhaveforgottenhowtheattemptsofWesternandSoviet
intellectualstofindgroundsfortheirdreamof"convergence"of
capitalismandsocialisminthe1960sended.

Todaytheideaofnew"convergence"couldbringcertaindividendstothe
sidesimitatingthe"merger."Butwhatwoulditsstrategicconsequences
be?Itwoulddefinitelyhelptheilliberalsystemtolimpalongusing
theresourcesoftheWest,anditwouldalsounderminetheWest's
sustainabilityandresilience.Thatiswhythepro-Kremlinaudience
applaudedKissinger'slectureinMoscow.ThatiswhytheKremlinwill
continueits"coercivedating,"hopingthattheWestwillacceptthe
"merger."Willitreally?Iwouldremindyouthatthepreviousattempts
oftheWesternelitestoacquiescetotheRussianSystemhavenot
preventedthecurrentconfrontationbecausetheWestfailedto
understandonetruth:Intheilliberalmindset,everyconcessionmeans
backtracking,creatingadesiretopressthedemandsevenfurther.Do
thepragmatistsunderstandthattheirtacticsofacquiescenceerasethe
"redlines"forilliberalregimes,provokingrecklessbehaviorthat
otherwisetheywouldnotrisk?

TheWest'spunditclasshastorethinkquiteafewothermythsthatit
persistsinclingingto.OneofthemisthebeliefthattheWestern
expansionoftradeandeconomicrelationswithilliberalstateswill
bringabouttheirdemocraticchange(thepolicyGermanyhasbeen
pursuingfordecades).AsHannesAdomeit,aBoschPublicPolicyFellow
withtheTransatlanticAcademy,pointsout,thistradeandeconomic
expansion"canservetosolidifyanauthoritariansystemratherthanact
asdriverfordemocratizationandliberalization."

ExchangeanddialoguewiththeWestandslogansabout"engagement"also
helpilliberalactors,whoaremoreastuteaboutusingthemfortheir
ownpurposes.Maybethepragmatistsshouldtrytothinkaboutwhythis
happensbeforetheystartchantingtheirfavoritesong:Weneedto
broadentheexchange!Thistimetheexchangeagendaisdifferent:
insteadofbuildingacommon"strategicvision,"pragmatistssuggest
"managingtheRussia-Westernconflict"bymeansof"trustedindividuals
onbothsides"capableofengaginginconfidentialdialogueson
contentioustopics.Isn'tithilarious?Thosewhohavefailedtopredict
andunderstandtodaywantto"manage"theresultsoftheirfailures.

Finally,whenhavethepragmatistsaskedthemselveswhytheir
assessmentshavemissedthemark?Haveanyamongthemadmittedbeing
wrong?This"comingout"wouldbeveryhelpfulforrestoringthe
reputationoftheexpertcommunity.

Theinabilityofthepoliticalandexpertcommunitytorespondtonew
challengesoftencreatesanurgetomovethe"unsolvable"problemtothe
backburner,ortocomeupwithanimitationsolution.Thisiswhatis
happeningtodaywiththecrisisoverUkraine.Thiscrisis,despiteits
presentde-escalation,willcontinuetohaveatremendousimpacton
Europeansecurity,thegeopoliticallandscape,andthecivilizational
clashbetweentheWestandtheIlliberalInternational.Boththe
UkrainiansandtheWesthavebeenforcedtoreconcilethemselvestoa
illusorysolution(soasnottoirritateMoscow)thatdisorientsthe
world,undermineslegalframeworks,anddemoralizesWesternandglobal
institutions.Italsocreatesthepossibilitythatthesameprocessof
buildingamechanismforpretendingwillbeplayedoutelsewhere(some
pragmatistshavesuggestedthatweshouldusetheMinsk-2formulato
solvetheSyriacrisis),sincetheglobalsystemhasshownthatitis
notpreparedtoreacttogeopoliticalambiguityandimitation.

Duetoitscivilizational,normativedimension,theclashbetweenRussia
andtheWestinUkraineisboundtoinfluencetheapproachesthatboth
sidestaketofutureproblems.Let'snotdeceiveourselvesthatweare
dealingwithaphenomenonthatwillgoawayassoonPutincomestohis
sensesorleavesoffice,orwhenMoscowandtheWestbegintocooperate
somewhereelse.Letmereiterate:Wearedealingwiththelogicofa
particularcivilization-onewhosesurvivalresourcesaredwindlingand
whosepoliticalclassispowerlesstotransformthesystem-thatwill
continuetoreenergizeitselfthroughtheenemysearch(evenasit
cooperateswiththisenemy).

Let'sgivetheKremlinsomecredit:Today,bydemonstratingits
assertivenessandachievingtacticalgains,theRussianrulershave
shownusthattheWestneedstofocusmoreonitsownoutmoded
mechanismsandlackofstrategicvector.TheKremlinhasshowntheWest
thatitneedstorenewtheliberaldemocraticprinciplesthathavebeen
discreditedbyideologicalfuzzinessandaccommodation.

Giventhefailuresoftheexpertcommunity,canthenormativistsandthe
pragmatistsgettogetherforadiscussionaimedatclarifyingtheir
respectivepositions-iffornootherreason,thenatleastforthesake
ofsavingthereputationoftheexpertcommunity?Isthisarealistic
goal?Idon'thaveananswertothisquestionrightnow.

Inanycase,theWestneedstounderstandthattheRussianSystemis
willingtofightforitssurvival,andthatthisfightwilltakevarious
forms.Themosteffectiveformcouldbetotakeadvantageofthe
globalizationandintegrationoftheRussianrentierclassintothe
Westerncommunity,aswellasWesternpolitical,intellectual,and
expertweaknesses.It'stimefortheWesttowakeitselffromitsdreams
of"engagement."PullingoldColdWarrecipesoutoftheboxwon'thelp
eitherweliveinadifferentrealitytoday.Bydrudgingupobsolete
models,the"mythologists"couldtemporarilywintheday,butonlyat
thecostofbeingshockedbydevelopmentsitdidnotpredict.
Onethingisclear:arrivingatarealistic(notaccommodationist)
understandingofRussia'strajectory-perhapsthemainchallengeofthe
21stcentury-isimpossiblewithoutsomeseriousself-reflectiononthe
partoftheRussiaexpertcommunity.

Footnotes
1TheRussianpro-KremlinobserverVladimirFrolovadmitsthatPutin's
"SyrianGambit"wasaimedattransformingtherelationshipwiththeWest
andhelpingto"regainRussia'srightfulplaceasaglobalpower."But
evenapro-Kremlinobserverhastoacknowledgethata"newEntente
CordialebetweenRussiaandtheWestisunlikely."
2AfterPutinannouncedthepartialwithdrawal,thecommanderofthe
RussianforcesinSyria,GeneralAlexanderDvornikov,admittedthatthe
Russian"spetznaz"hasbeenoperatinginSyriaandwillcontinuetooperate.
3UlrichSpecksaysthattheinternationalsystemtheKremlinistrying
toenforce"recallsthe1930s,whenMussolini,Hitler,andStalinwere
tryingtoreplacetheexistinginternationalorderwithanewsystem
basedontheideathatonlymightmakesright-aDarwinistsystem
deprivedofeverytraditionalethicalorlegalconstraint."
4TheRussianparticipationintheAlepposiege,whichbroughtcollapse
oftheGenevapeaceprocess,wasenforcementoftheKremlin's"peace
plan"forSyria.
5Seediscussionofthe"AuthoritarianResurgence"intheJournalof
Democracy(January2015).
6SomeRussianpragmatistshavestartedtoexpressconcernsregarding
theKremlin'spolicy.FiodorLukianov,praisingRussiandiplomacy,says,
"[E]vengooddiplomatscan'tmasklackofpurposeintheforeignpolicy."
7AEI'sGaryJ.SchmittcommentedonKissinger'sapproachinhislecture
inMoscow,"Kissinger's'realist'approachisneitherrealisticinits
descriptionoftheproblemsintherelationshipnorinthepathto
addressthem."AlexMotyl,aprofessorofpoliticalscienceatRutgers
University-Newark,waseventougher,sayingthatKissinger'srecently
articulatedvisionforU.S.-Russiarelations"consistsoflargeswaths
ofboilerplatelanguageandseveraldisingenuousargumentsdemonstrating
thatthearchitectofdtentehasnoideahowtofixwhatPutinhasbroken."

[returntoContents]<#n0>

#25
RussiaBeyondtheHeadlines
www.rbth.ru
April21,2016
Atacrossroads:Theanxietiesofaglobalizedworld
InanRBTHexclusive,formerSovietleaderMikhailGorbachevwrites
abouttheinternationalcrisisofleadershipandthechallengesfacing
politiciansaroundtheworldinatimeofmoraluncertaintyandlackof
unityandvisionforthefuture.
MIKHAILGORBACHEV,SPECIALTORBTH

Whereistheglobalworldheadinginthe21stcentury?Peopleareasking
thisquestiontodaywithincreasinganxiety.AndIamoneofthem.

Withmyfriend,thelateHans-DietrichGenscher[foreignministerand
vicechancellorofGermanyfrom1974-1992-RBTH],weoftenaskedthe
followingquestion:Whatwentwrong?Ourgeneration-agenerationof
politicianswhosejointeffortscontributedtoendingtheColdWar-
carriedoutitsmission.Butthenwhyistoday'sworldunquiet,unjust
andmilitarized?

Itseemedthattheendoftheglobalconfrontationandtheunprecedented
possibilitiesofnewtechnologies,primarilyinformational,shouldhave
giventheworldanewbreath,makingeachindividual'slifebetter.But
realityhasturnedoutdifferently.

Thisdoesnothaveaneasyexplanation.Ioftenusedtosaythat
politicianswerenotuptopar.Thosewhodeclaredthevictoryofthe
WestintheColdWar,whorefusedtobuildanew,equitablesecurity
system,bearalargeportionoftheresponsibilityforthecurrentstate
oftheworld.Triumphalismisabadadvisorinworldaffairs.
Butthatisnottheonlyproblem.Thenewglobalworldisstillnot
understoodandinterpreted.Itneedsnewrulesofconduct,anew
morality.Buttheworldleaders,apparently,cannotgraspthis.

Ithinkthathereliesthemainreasonfortoday's"globaltroubles."

Whowonandwholostintheglobalworld?

Peopleareworriedaboutthetensionininternationalaffairs,butthey
arenolessworriedabouttheirownsituation,theirownfuture.Thisis
allinterrelated.

Eveninthemostdevelopedcountriesthemajority(themiddleclassis
thefoundationofeverysuccessfullydevelopingsociety)expressesits
dissatisfactionwithitslife.Votersaremorefrequentlysupporting
populistpoliticianswhoproposeapparentlysimplebutinreality
dangeroussolutions.

However,irresponsiblefinancialstructureshavewelladaptedtoand
benefitedfromglobalization,allblowing"soapbubbles"andmaking
billionsliterallyfromtheair.Thesebillionsfindtheirwayintoa
narrowcircleofpeoplewhohidethemfromtaxation.Wehavejustseen
newexamplesofthis.Butthisisjustthetipoftheiceberg.

Allthiswithoutmentioningthefactthatorganizedcrimestructures,
drugdealers,armsdealers,groupsprofitingfrommassivemigrantflows,
cybercriminalsandmostimportantly,terrorists,allfeelvery
comfortableintheglobalworld.

Politicalcrisis,leadershipcrisis

Worldpoliticshasstillnotfoundaneffectivesolutionforanyoneof
theseproblems.Meanwhile,anewroundofthearmsracehasbegun,the
ecologicalcrisisisgettingworseandthegapbetweenrichandpoor
countriesisgrowing,aswellasbetweentherichandthepoorwithin
individualcountries.Thesearetheproblemsthatmustbeonthetopof
theworld'sagenda.Buttheyarenotbeingsolved.Deadendsareeverywhere.

Andyetitwouldseemthattherearepossibilitiestoovercomethem,as
wellasmechanisms-thosethathaveexistedforalongtime,suchas
theUN,andnewones,suchastheG20,whichwascreatedtomeetthenew
challenges.Buthardlyanyonecansaythattheyhavebeensuccessful.
Theyarealwayslate,theyarealwaysbehind.

Wearefacedwithaleadershipcrisis,bothinternationalandnational.
Politiciansarejustoccupiedwith"puttingoutfires,"solvingthe
day'sproblems,crisesandconflicts.

Nooneisarguing.Theymustbesolved.Andinthelastweekstherehave
beensomepositivebreakthroughs.

ThereisdialogueonSyria.Eventhoughfornowitsbiggestparticipants
areexternalcountries,primarilytheU.S.andRussia.Butthishas
alreadyhelpedtoloosenthetensionsbetweenRussiaandtheWest.

Ifthistrendisdevelopeditcanthenbeappliedtootherspheresof
relations.Butthiswillbealengthyandcomplicatedprocess.Trusthas
beengreatlydamaged.

Ontheotherhand,therehavebeennobreakthroughstosolvingthe
Ukrainiancrisis.Thecurrentregulatorymechanismsareworkingpoorly.
Thereistheimpressionthatthemechanismsarebecomingaroutine.We
shouldnotabandonthemechanisms(theMinskagreements,theNormandy
Four).Butevidentlytheyneedtobecompletedandstimulatedtowork.
PossiblythroughdiscussionsintheUNSecurityCouncilorother
mechanismswiththeparticipationofRussiaandtheU.S.

WecannotleavetheUkrainiancrisisasanabscess,creatingafever
throughoutEuropeandtheworld.Europemaynotwithstandanotherfrozen
conflict.IagainaskpresidentsObamaandPutin(Ididthisforthe
firsttimein2014)tomeetanddiscussthiscontinuingcrisis.

Lookingfartherahead

Butevenifweareabletoovercometheacutecurrentcrisis,itwillbe
animportantbutonlyafirststeptosolvingamuchmorecomplex
problem:learninghowtoliveinaglobalworld.

Withoutaglobalcontextitisimpossibletounderstandthereasonsfor
andconsequencesofthecurrentconflictsanddeveloparenewedagenda
andresourcesforsolvingtheproblemsthatwillinevitablyariseinthe
world.

Intheworldpolicyagendathemostimportantthingistocorrectly
understandthepriorities.

TheRussell-EinsteinManifesto,[formerSwedishPrimeMinister]Olof
Palme'sideasoncontemporarysecurity,JohnKennedy'sspeechon"the
worldforeveryone,"theUSSRandtheU.S.GenevaDeclarationsin1985
(confirmedbyReykjavikandtheagreementstostopthenucleararms
race)-thesewereall"proposals"tocreatesuchanagenda,ontopof
whichwouldbeplacedhumanity'smainproblems.

Asoftodaytheseare:

-thecontinuousproblemofweaponsofmassdestruction,armsraces,the
militarizationofworldpolitics

-theproblemofpovertyandtheunderdevelopmentofanenormouspartof
humanity

-theecologicalchallenge,climatechange

-terrorism

Otheracuteproblemsaremassmigration,xenophobiaandreligious
intolerance,andtheproblemofco-existenceofvariouscivilizations.

Thecommondenominatorofalltheseproblems:notoneofthemcanbe
solvedmilitarily.

Tosaythatitisnecessarytouniteeffortswouldseemlikeanaxiom.
Butfornowdisunityandtheinabilitytoacttogetherareprevailing.

Governmentsandtheirleadersbearthemainresponsibilityforsucha
stateofaffairs.Theglobalworldnowhasotherparticipantsinworld
processes:civilsocietyorganizations,business,thescientific
community,religiousassociations.Buttheroleandresponsibilityof
governments,theirleadersandintergovernmentalorganizationsmust
remaindecisive.

Politicsandmorality:Therulesofconduct

Anotherimperativefortoday'sglobalworldisthenecessitytounite
politicsandmorality.

Thisisabiganddifficultproblem.Itcannotbesolvedinonefell
swoop.Butifwedonotfacethisproblemandworkassiduouslyto
solvingit,theworldwillbedestinedtoexperiencenewconflictsand
unsolvablecontradictions.

"Doublestandards"areespeciallydangerousintheglobalworld.All
possibilitiesforgovernmentstosupport(outoftheirinterests)
terroristandextremistgroupsmustbeexcluded,justlikesupportfor
anymovementpromoting"anarmedfight"tooverthrowlegalgovernments.

Relationsbetweengovernmentsintheglobalworldmustberegulatednot
onlybyinternationallegalnorms,butalsobycertainrulesofconduct
thatarebasedonprinciplesofhumanmorality.
These"rulesofconduct"mustincluderestraint,considerationof
interestsofallsides,consultationandmediationwhenthesituation
intensifiesandthereisathreatofacrisis.Iamconvincedthatit
couldhavebeenpossibletoavoidtheUkrainianandSyriancrisesif
theirdirectparticipantsandespeciallytheexternalpartieshadbeen
guidedbysuchrulesofconduct.

Ibelievethatrulesofconduct,asortofethicalcode,arealsoneeded
forthemassmedia.Theyarealsopartlytoblame.Oftentheyexcite
passionsandsullytheinformationalatmosphere.Insteadofhelpingto
preventandstopconflicts,theypracticallyparticipateinfuellingthem.

ThemostimportantthingthatIwanttosayisthatitisnecessaryto
puttheissuesoftherenewedagenda,thecombinationofmoralityand
politics,andtherulesofconductinaglobalworldatthecenterof
theattentionofgovernmentsandtheworld'scivilsociety.

Russia'srole

IamconvincedthatRussia'sroleinovercomingtheglobalpolitical
crisiscanandmustbeimportantandpositive.ItistimefortheWest
torenounceitsattemptstoisolateRussia.Thishasneverproduced
results."Personalsanctions"willdefinitelynotyieldanyfruit
either.Theyshouldbeliftedfirst.Otherwisetherewillbeno
dialogue,therewillbenochancestorestoretrust.

Nooneshouldexpectthatafterencounteringeconomicdifficulties
Russiawillacceptitssecondaryroleintheworld.Ifthishappenedno
onewouldbenefit.What'smore,everyonewouldonlylosefromanewCold
War.

Acoupleofdaysago,duringhis"DirectLine"ontelevision,Vladimir
PutinstatedhisintentiontonormalizerelationswiththeWest.But
willourpartnersbeabletoreadjusttoamoreconstructiveapproach?
Thisisstillunclear,butIcallonthemtodoso.

Currentlyweareinaverydelicatemoment.Wemustthrowawayour
emotionsandpropagandisticexcess.Seriousclaimscanberaisedagainst
today'sgenerationofimportantleaders.Butthisgenerationstillhas
theopportunitytobementionedwithdignityinthehistorybooks.And
itwouldbeabigmistakenottotakeadvantageofthisopportunity.
[returntoContents]<#n0>

#26
Irrussianality
http://irrussianality.wordpress.com
LEGALBLOWBACK
ByPaulRobinson
UniversityofOttawa

Lawfare,accordingtoWikipedia,is'theillegitimateuseofdomesticor
internationallawwiththeintentionofdamaginganopponent,winninga
publicrelationsvictory,financiallycripplinganopponent,ortyingup
theopponent'stime.'Itishighlyquestionablewhatwouldconstitutean
'illegitimateuseofthelaw',butwhatistrueisthatcertainpeople
areturningtothecourtsasapoliticaltool,andthatsomecourtsseem
willingtohelpthembymakingwhatseemtobehighlypoliticized
judgements.

InMarchofthisyear,forinstance,aUScourtorderedIrantopay
$10.5billionindamagestorelativesofvictimsofthe11September
2001terroristattacksinNewYorkandWashington.AndtodaytheUS
SupremeCourtdeterminedthatIranmustpayalmost$2billionto
relativesofMarineswhodiedinanattackontheirbaseinBeirutin
1983.Yetinaninterviewthisweek,USpresidentBarackObamaopposed
attemptstosueSaudiArabiaforitsallegedroleinthe9/11attacks.
Obamadeclared:'Ifweopenupthepossibilitythatindividualsinthe
UnitedStatescanroutinelystartsuingothergovernments,thenweare
alsoopeninguptheUnitedStatestobeingcontinuallysuedby
individualsinothercountries.'Thusitiso.k.forAmericanstosue
Iranfor$10.5billionfor9/11,eventhoughIranwasnotresponsible,
butnoto.k.tosueSaudiArabia,eventhoughalinkismuchmorelikely.

ThisarbitrarinesshasnotpassedRussiansby.Russianofficialswere
particularlyriledbythe2014decisionofaDutchcourttoaward$50
billionindamagestoformershareholdersoftheoilfirmYukosforthe
allegedlyillegalseizureoftheirassets,despitethefactthatthe
RussianFederationhadnotratifiedthetreatywhichwasbeingusedto
passjudgementagainstit.Inamuchdiscussedarticlethisweek,
AleksandrBastrykin,headoftheInvestigativeCommitteeoftheRussian
Federation,expressedhisfrustration,declaring:

"ClearexamplesarethedecisionsontheYukosaffair,thedecisionon
themurderofformerFSBofficerAleksandrLitvinenko,thereportofthe
Dutchsecuritycouncilontheresultsoftheresearchintotheshooting
downofMalaysianBoeingMH17,theinquirybytheAmericanFBIintothe
legitimacyoftheawardoftherighttoholdtheWorldCuptoRussiaand
Qatarin2018and2022,thekidnappingandforciblerenditiontotheUSA
andsentencingtoalongtermofimprisonmentofourcitizensViktor
BoutandKonstantinIaroshenko,etc."

Bastrykinisnotaloneinhisfrustration.Ina2014articleinthe
ReviewofCentralandEastEuropeanLaw,RussianlegalscholarMikhail
Antonovnotesthatdisenchantmentwiththeapplicationofinternational
humanitarianlawhasdrivenRussianjuriststobecomeincreasingly
conservativeanddeterminedtodefendRussiansovereignty.Thistrend
culminatedthisweekinadecisionbytheRussianConstitutionalCourt
toignoreademandbytheEuropeanCourtofHumanRights(ECHR)that
prisonersshouldbeallowedtovoteinelections.AccordingtoRT,this
'wasthefirstimplementationofalawintroducedinDecember2015.This
actallowstheConstitutionalCourttooverrulethedecisionsof
internationalcourtsifsuchdecisionscontradicttheprincipleof
supremacyoftheRussianConstitution.'

TodateRussiahashadanexcellentrecordinimplementingECHR
decisions-farbetterinfactthanmanyWesternEuropeancountries.
ThisreflectedtheimportancegiventotheruleoflawbytheRussian
authorities.IbelievethattheDecember2015lawmentionedaboveand
theConstitutionalCourt'sdecisionarethereforestepsinthewrong
direction.Buttheyareperhapsinevitableconsequencesofwhatisseen
asthebiasedimplementationofinternationallaw-legal'blowback',if
youlike.

Fortunately,asignthatthingsmightbechangingcamethisweekwith
anothercourtdecision-thistimebyanotherDutchcourt,overturning
theoutcomeofthe2014Yukoscase.TheUSSupremeCourt'sjudgement
againstIransuggeststhattheAmericansarelosingnoneoftheir
appetitefor'lawfare',buttheYukoscasesuggeststhatperhapsthe
Europeansare.
[returntoContents]<#n0>

#27
ChristianScienceMonitor
April20,2016
Revivalofdiplomacy?Ukraine,Russiamakeprogressonprisonerswap.
TheexchangeofUkrainianhelicopterpilotNadiyaSavchenkofortwo
Russianservicemenappearstobemovingahead.Butthedealcouldalso
reopenthequestionofjusthowinvolvedRussiaiswithUkraine's
easternrebellion.
ByFredWeir,Correspondent

MOSCOW-AdealappearstobeintheworksbetweenMoscowandKievto
exchangecapturedUkrainianhelicopterpilotNadiyaSavchenko,recently
sentencedto22yearsinaRussianprison,fortwoRussianservicemen
convictedof"terrorism"inaKievcourtthisweek.

Butwhiletheapparentagreementoffersararepointoflightinthe
frayedrelationshipbetweenthetwocountries,italsocouldreignite
thequestionofjusthowinvolvedRussiahasbeenandcontinuestobein
therestiveDonbassregionofUkraine.
UkrainianPresidentPetroPoroshenkoannouncedthatan"algorithm"had
beenagreedtofacilitatethepossibleexchangeofMs.Savchenko,which
couldhappeninthenextfewdays.Mr.PoroshenkoandRussianPresident
VladimirPutinheldareportedlyconstructivetelephoneconversation
abouttheprospectiveswap,amarkedreturntodiplomacyinbilateral
relationsaftertwoyearsofwar,bothhotandcold.

TherepatriationofSavchenko,whosedefianceofherRussiancaptorshas
earnedhernationalherostatusandaplaceintheUkrainianparliament,
wouldremoveoneofthemostprominentirritantsinthe"information
war"betweenthetwo.ItmayalsohelptoimproveRussia'simagein
Europe,wheresupportforrenewinganti-MoscowsanctionsinJulyis
alreadylookingshaky.Butitcomesastheconflictisonceagain
escalatingalongthebattlefrontineasternUkraine.

Savchenko,ahelicopterpilotwholefttheUkrainianArmytofightwith
apro-Kievvolunteerbattaliontwoyearsago,saysshewascapturedon
thebattlefieldbyrebelforcesandillegallytransportedtoRussia,
whereshewaschargedwiththemurderoftwoRussianjournalists.She
deniedthecharges,putupasteadyshowofdefianceinthecourtroom
andliterallylaughedwhenthejudgereadouthersentence.Shealso
launchedahungerstrike,whichshesuspendedonTuesdaywhenMr.
Poroshenkopersonallycalledandaskedhertodoso.

RussiaintheDonbass

ThecircumstancesaroundthetwoRussians,AlexanderAlexandrovand
YevgenyYerofeyev,whowerecapturedincombatineastUkrainelast
year,aremurkierthanthosearoundSavchenko.

UkrainianexpertsinsistthattheKremlin'swillingnesstonegotiatefor
themisproofthattheywereregularRussiantroops,partofalarge
invadingforcethattoreUkraineapartfollowingtheMaidanRevolution
inearly2014,evenasMoscowdeniedanydirectinvolvement.Thetwomen
initiallyadmittedtobeingoperativesoftheGRU,Russianmilitary
intelligence,butlaterretractedthoseconfessionsandsaidtheywere
justex-military"volunteers"withtheUkrainianrebels.

TheirreturntoRussiaundertheproposeddealwillprobablyreignite
thatvexingquestion.WhilethestandardUkrainiannarrativearguesthat
separatismintheeasternregionofDonbassfollowingtheMaidan
RevolutionwasentirelyMoscow-made,theactualextentofRussian
interventionhasprovenextremelydifficulttopindown.AndRussian
expertsarguethatthecaseofMr.AlexandrovandMr.Yerofeyevisno
smokinggun.

"Ofcoursethereisnowaythatragtagrebelarmycouldhavedefeated
theUkrainianforcesinthosedecisivebattlesaroundDonetskin2014
andearly2015withoutRussianhelp,"saysSergeiStrokan,international
affairscolumnistfortheMoscowdailyKommersant."ButtheRussianside
hasdevelopedthislegalformula,whichsaysthatlotsofRussian
'volunteers'crossedovertohelptherebels,butnoregularRussian
troops."

"Youmaysayit'sadistinctionwithoutadifference,butitlets
Russianauthoritiesoffthehook,"saysMr.Strokan."Arguingoverit
hasalreadyproventobeadeadend."

Politicalwins

Bothcaseshaveprovenproblematicintheirexecution.TheSavchenko
trialwasperceivedaroundtheworldaspoliticallymotivated,andhuman
rightsexpertssayitwasriddledwithirregularities.Thetrialof
AlexandrovandYerofeyevwasmarredbythegrislyabductionandmurder
ofAlexandrov'slawyer,presumablybyUkrainianultra-nationalists.

Assuch,theresolutionsaswapwouldbringwilllikelybenefitboth
sides-atleastpolitically.

"PutinshouldbegladtogetridofSavchenko,becausehercase
attractedtoomuchattentionandshebecameasymbolofUkrainian
resistance,"saysViktorNebozhenko,directoroftheindependent
UkrainianBarometersociologicalagencyinKiev."Bothpresidentswill
gainabigPRvictoryfromthis.InRussiatheywilllaunchabig
campaigndeclaring'weneverleaveourpeoplebehind,'andthesame
thingwillhappenhere[inUkraine].Ontheeasternfront,however,it
won'tchangeathing.Peoplewillgoondyingeveryday."
[returntoContents]<#n0>

#28
BostonGlobe
April20,2016
PopeFrancis,askmoreforUkraine
ByLevGolinkin
LevGolinkinistheauthorof"ABackpack,aBear,andEightCratesof
Vodka."

ThefewjournalistswhostillreportfromeasternUkraineinvariably
describeitasaninvisiblecatastrophe.It'sanaptoxymoron.First,a
regionthesizeofConnecticut,rightinthemiddleofEurope,was
turnedintoanapocalypticwastelandwhere3millionciviliansremain
cut-offfrombasicnecessities.Then,itwaspromptlyforgotten.

PopeFrancisdecidedtochangematters.OnApril3,thepontiffissueda
rareandfar-rangingcall,earmarkingmoneycollectedbyEuropean
churchesduringtheApril24Sundayservicesforhumanitarianaidfor
victimsofabrutalandongoingconflict.Yet,whiletheattentionis
direlyneeded,it'snotenough.CatholicsinNorthAmerica-reallyall
Americans-mustalsobecalledupontohelp.

Twoyearsagothismonth,warbrokeoutbetweenKievandRussian-backed
rebelsintheDonbassminingregionofeasternUkraine.Shortly
thereafter,Donbass'chiefexportwentfromcoaltowarcrimes.
Ukraine'sindustrialheartlandwastransformedintoadevelopingnation.

Theconditionsareunfathomable.Inthe21stcentury,thereare
outbreaksoftuberculosisandHIVbecauseKievbattalionsblocked
medicalsuppliesfromreachingtherebel-heldareaswhiletherebels
expelledDoctorsWithoutBordersonchargesofbeingspies.Inthe
middleofEurope,elementaryschoolsnowhaveclassesonrecognizing
explosives.NeithertherebelsnorKievforcesbotheredmarking
minefields,andchildrenkeepgettingblownapart.Indiscriminate
shellingofcivilianareasdestroyedinfrastructurefrompowerplantsto
watertreatmentfacilities,leavinghundredsofthousandswithout
drinkablewaterandelectricity.TheWorldFoodProgramjustadded
Ukraine-oncethebreadbasketofEurope-toitslistofcountriesin
desperateneedoffood.UkraineistheonlyEuropeannationonalist
dominatedbytheMiddleEastandsub-SaharanAfrica.

HighlyconservativeUnitedNationsestimatesplacethewar'stollat
morethan10,000casualties2millionrefugeesandinternally-displaced
personsandof3millionpeoplewhoremainintheconflictarea,nearly
halfareconsidered"highlyvulnerableandinneedofassistance."Many
areelderlyorthepoorwhohavenomeanstoflee.

Ordinarily,theeyesoftheWestwouldberivetedonUkraine,justas
theywereontheatrocitiesofYugoslaviainthe1990s.Butshortly
afterthewarbegan,afogofpropagandadescendedonDonbass,creating
achaosthatbecameimpenetrablefortheglobalmedia.

Kievofficiallydesignatedtheconflictan"anti-terroristoperation,"
orATO,andDonbassastheATOzone.MoscowpropagandapaintsallKiev
supportersas"neo-Nazis."Thetermseffectivelydehumanizedthe3
millioncivilianstrappedintheconflictzone:Neitherterroristsnor
neo-Nazisdeservemercy.

Accusationsandcounter-accusationsswirlingaroundUkrainetransformed
itfromaslaughteryardintoaquestionof"spheresofinfluence"
betweenRussiaandNATOora"standoff"betweenKievandMoscow.The
rareheadlinesoutofUkrainerecentlyfocusonwhichsideisviolating
thelatestcease-fireattempt,orthepoliticalsquabblesinKiev-not
theciviliansforwhomabduction,torture,landmines,starvation,and
murderarenowapartoflife.ItisasifMassachusettsandNewYork
engagedinascorched-earthwar,andnoonebotherstomentionthe
peopleofConnecticutcaughtin-between.

PopeFrancisaddressedthesituationintypicalJesuitfashion-he
quicklyslashedthroughthepolemicsofspheresandstandoffs,Nazisand
terrorists,andcalledonthefaithfultoaidthevictims.

Excepthecalledonthewrongcontinent.

ThepapalcollectionforUkraineextendstochurchesinEurope,butnot
NorthAmerica.Undernormalcircumstancesthiswouldmakesense,since
Europeanshaveageographicinterestinaidingtheirneighbors.The
problemtodayisthatCatholicstrongholdslikeItaly,France,and
AustriaarealreadystrainedtothebreakingpointbecauseoftheSyrian
migrantcrisis.It'shardtoexpectWesternEuropeanstofocuson
sufferinginUkrainewhentheyareconsumedbythebiggestinfluxof
humanitysinceWorldWarIIunfoldingintheirowncities.

TheparishesbestpoisedtocontributetotheVatican'sappealareon
thissideoftheAtlantic.Americanbishopshaveauniqueopportunityto
standinsolidaritywithEurope.AseparateUScollectionforUkraine
wouldallowBoston,Chicago,NewYork,andLosAngelestojoinPope
Francis'historicmissioncenteredonthatsacredtenetofbothreligion
andAmericandemocracy-protectingtheinnocent.Itwouldaidmillions
whoareneitherterroristsnorneo-Nazis,butcivilianswhoseonlysin
wasthemisfortuneoflivinginwhathasbecomeUkraine'smisery.
[returntoContents]<#n0>

#29
Sputnik
April21,2016
Kremlin:RussiatoBeHappyIfUkraine'sAssociationWithEUYieldsSuccess

MOSCOW(Sputnik)-RussiawouldbehappyiftheEUAssociationAgreement
withUkraineyieldedanysortofsuccessforKiev,Kremlinspokesman
DmitryPeskovsaidThursday.

"OfcourseRussiaisinterestedthatitsneighborsarepredictable,
economicallyindependent,and,Iwouldsay,stableandflourishing.If
thisagreementhelpsUkrainetoreachsomesortofparameterinreaching
itsgoals,thenobviouslywewouldonlybehappy,"Peskovtoldjournalists.

However,iftheUkraine-EUAssociationAgreementhasnegativeeffectson
Russia,Moscowwilltakenecessarystepstobalancethesituation,
Peskovsaid.

"ThisisthetopicthatIthinkconcernstheEuropeanUnionandUkraine
toagreaterextent.Intheeconomicpart,asitcouldaffect
Russian-UkrainianrelationsandRussia'seconomicrelations,wewill,of
course,thoroughlymonitorpossiblenegativeimplications.Ifsuch
effectsappear,thenwewill,ofcourse,takethenecessarymeasuresof
balancingnature,"Peskovtoldreporters,speakingaboutthepossible
impactofEU-UkraineassociationontheirrelationswithRussia.

In2014,KievandBrusselssignedanagreementaimedatUkraine's
politicalassociationandeconomicintegrationintothebloc.The
agreementseekstocreateafreetradezonebetweenUkraineandthe28
EUmemberstates.

TheagreementhastoberatifiedbyalltheEUmemberstates.Bythe
momentithasbeenratifiedby27countriesexceptNetherlands.Dutch
citizensvotedagainstthedealattheadvisoryreferendum,however
country'slawmakersvotedagainstrefusingtoratifytheagreement.
[returntoContents]<#n0>

#30
http://gordonhahn.com
April19,2016
The20April2014EasterAttack:AgainonRightSectorandtheMakingof
theUkrainianCivilWar
ByGordonM.Hahn

Theanti-MaidantakeoversofOGAsandothergovernmentbuildingsacross
DonetskandspreadingtoLuhanskfromApril12-14cameafterKievhad
beendiscussingpubliclyformorethanaweekitsintenttocarryoutan
'anti-terrorist'operationagainstwhatthenweremereprotestersin
restlessDonbass.Moreover,theanti-MaidantakeoversinMarchandearly
Apriltherewereinresponseto,andidenticalwiththepro-Maidan
takeoversofKievgovernmentbuildingsandregionalOGAsinwinter.The
Donbass'seventswereescalatinginresponsetoKiev'sactions.By
sundownon14April2014,actingUkrainianpresidentOleksandr
Turchynov'sdeadlineof6pmforthoseoccupyinggovernmentbuildingsin
theeasttoleavehadexpired.Donetsk'santi-Maidanprotestersand
armedrebelshadtakencontrolofsomegovernmentbuildingsinmany
citiesacrosstheoblast,includingArtemevsk,Druzhkivka(Druzhkovka),
Horlivka(Gorlovka),Kramatorsk,Makiivka(Makievka),Mariupol',
Slovyansk(Slavyansk),Yenakiieve(Yenakieve),andZhdanivka
(Zhdanovka).Bytheeveningofthe14thofAprilthefirstcasualtiesof
theATO-oneSBUofficerkilledandfivewoundedinSlavyansk-hadbeen
registeredwhenSBUspecialforcesattemptedtore-takesecurity
buildings.[1]ThousandsofUkrainianarmytroopsandlargely
neofascist-manned'volunteerbattalions'armedwithtanksandheavy
artilleryandsupportedbyairpowerwereonthemarcheast.Bythetime
Donbassiansawokeonthemorningofthe15th,Kiev's'anti-terroroist'
operation(ATO)wasalreadyinaction.Thatdayaforceof500Ukrainian
soldiers,20APCs,and2helicoptersdescendedonSlavyansk.[2]
Ukraine'scivilwarhadbegun.Certainly,MaidanKiev'scivilwaror
'ATO'couldnothavebeenareactiontoaRussianinvasionor
intervention.EventheSBUstatedthattheinfamousandover-credited
Girkin-StrelkovhadonlyarrivedinDonbassonthe12th.Evenasa
responsetotheDonbassrebels'firstviolenceinSlavyanskonthe14th,
Kievwasoverreactingtoevents.Theoverreactionwasdrivennotonlyby
theMaidan'sneofascistelement'sfervorforwar.Itwasalsodrivenby
fearofwhatRussianPresidentVladimirPutinmightbeplanningin
DonbassgivenhisactionsinCrimea.Uncertaintyisnotarecipefor
stability.

YettherewasonelastchancetoavertwarinDonbass.Itwouldbe
scuttledbythenewregime'sshocktroops-theneo-fascistRightSector
(RS)ledbyDmitroYarosh.

GenevaFailure

Withthesituationspinningoutofcontrolontheground,actorsonthe
internationallevelintervenedagain.Moscowhadwarnedthatanyattack
onDonbassianswouldputtalkswithWashingtonandBrusselsscheduled
forGenevalaterthenextweekatrisk.[3]OnApril16-17thetop
foreignaffairsofficialsoftheU.S.,EU,Ukraine,andRussiametin
Genevainalastditch,belatedefforttoavoidcivilwarinUkraine.
UnlikethetalksinKievthatproducedtheFebruary21stagreementand
includedthepro-Maidanoppositionpartyleaders,neithertheDonbass
rebelsnoranyrepresentativesfromDonbasstookpartinGeneva.On
April17ththesidessignedavagueceasefireagreement,a"joint
statement,"consistingofaspirationaldeclarationsforaceasefire,
withdrawalfrombuildings,andtheinitiationofa"nationaldialogue"
onanewconstitutionratherthanconcretestepsforimplementationand
support.Ifnotfortheletterhead,theentiredocumentwouldhavefit
easilyononepage.Itreadinfull:

"TheGenevameetingonthesituationinUkraineagreedoninitial
concretestepstode-escalatetensionsandrestoresecurityforall
citizens.Allsidesmustrefrainfromanyviolence,intimidationor
provocativeactions.Theparticipantsstronglycondemnedandrejected
allexpressionsofextremism,racismandreligiousintolerance,
includinganti-Semitism.Allillegalarmedgroupsmustbedisarmedall
illegallyseizedbuildingsmustbereturnedtolegitimateownersall
illegallyoccupiedstreets,squaresandotherpublicplacesinUkrainian
citiesandtownsmustbevacated.Amnestywillbegrantedtoprotesters
andtothosewhohaveleftbuildingsandotherpublicplacesand
surrenderedweapons,withtheexceptionofthosefoundguiltyofcapital
crimes.ItwasagreedthattheO.S.C.E.SpecialMonitoringMission
shouldplayaleadingroleinassistingUkrainianauthoritiesandlocal
communitiesintheimmediateimplementationofthesede-escalation
measureswherevertheyareneededmost,beginninginthecomingdays.
TheU.S.,E.U.andRussiacommittosupportthismission,includingby
providingmonitors.Theannouncedconstitutionalprocesswillbe
inclusive,transparentandaccountable.Itwillincludetheimmediate
establishmentofabroadnationaldialogue,withoutreachtoallof
Ukraine'sregionsandpoliticalconstituencies,andallowforthe
considerationofpubliccommentsandproposedamendments.The
participantsunderlinedtheimportanceofeconomicandfinancial
stabilityinUkraineandwouldbereadytodiscussadditionalsupportas
theabovestepsareimplemented."[4]

AtapressconferenceafterthesigningUSSecretaryofStateKerryput
theonusforcompliancewiththeagreementbytheDNRfullyonthe
Russianside,muchasheandPresidentObamahadwiththeFebruary21st
agreement:"Responsibility(forsuccessfulimplementation)willliewith
thosewhohaveorganisedtheirpresence,providedthemwiththeweapons,
puttheuniformsonthem,supportedthem,andhavebeenengagedinthe
processofguidingthemoverthecourseofthisoperation."[5]Butas
notedabove,therebelforceswereactingspontaneously,still
unorganized,andpoorlyarmedandequipped.Thiscouldnotbesaidfor
MaidanKiev.

OrthodoxEasterCeasefireandtheRSAttackatSlavyansk

TheonepositivethatcameoutoftheagreementwasanEasterceasefire,
butitwasimmediatelyunderminedbyafamiliarculprit.Fromthe
outset,theneofascistsofYarosh'sRSandOlehTyahnybok'sSvoboda
Party(SP)weredeterminedtowagewaragainsttheDonbass.Towardsthis
end,ontheverydaytheceasefireagreementwassigned,aRSmilitant
ofthevolunteerbattalionsjustmovingintoDonbassfromthewest
detonatedagrenadeinahazyincidentkillinghimselfandtwoDonbass
rebelswhoallegedlyattackedhimatarebelcheckpointnear
Slavyansk.[6]Dayslater,onApril20th,EasterSunday,RSmilitants
appeartohavecarriedoutacoordinatedattackonanotherSlavyansk
checkpoint,scuttlingtheceasefire.TheattackleftthreeSlavyansk
rebelsdeadandfourwoundedandoneRSfighterkilledandtwowounded.

Ukraine'sSBUintelliegenceservice,however,accusedMoscowandallied
"saboteurs"ofcarryingouta"cynicalprovocation,"while
simultaneouslydenyingthattherewereanyUkrainianorganizationsof
anykindinthearea:"Ithasbeenestablishedthatonthatnightin
Slavyansktherewasnotoneorganizationbesidessaboteursand
representativesofthecriminalswhotheGRUofthegeneralStaffofthe
ArmedForcesoftheRussianFederationsupportandarm.Thiswas
establishedbyoperationalinvestigativeactivityatthesiteby
Ukraine'slawenforcementagencies."[7]TheNationalSecurityand
DefenseCouncil'sdeputysecretaryViktoriyaSumarbrushedoffonher
FacebookpageanyRSinvolvementas"Russianpropaganda":"Reportsby
Russianjournalistsaboutashootoutbetweensupposedlythe'Right
Sector'and'self-defenders'beinginSlavyanskbasedonsome'business
cardsofYarosh'and'unknownweapons'andthenumberofkilledwhich
growsbythehourandsomeother'details',evidenceofwhichnoonehas
seen,isatypicalformofRussianpropagandawhichnotonlymany
Russianbutalsomanyotherforeignmassmediacirculatetoday."Sumar
addedthattheeventwasdesginedbyMoscowtogivetheappearanceofa
civilwarandjustifyaRussianinvasionofUkraine.[8]

TheMaidanregime'ssilovikiappearedtobecoordinatingthe
disinformationwiththeneofacists,sinceRSspokesmanArtemSkoropadsky
alsoissuedadenial,sayingSlavyanskwasa"blasphemousprovocation
fromRussia:blasphemousbecauseittookplaceonaholynightfor
Christians,onEasternight.ThiswasclearlycarriedoutbyRussian
specialforces."[9]InanofficialstatementonitsVKontakepage,RS
againdeniedhaving"anyrelationship"tothe"operation"inSlavyansk,
adding:"AnyattempttotietheseactionswithRightSectorhaveonly
onegoal-toprovokefearofRSactivistsamongtheinhabitantsof
EasternUkraine."Theparty,thestatementclaimed,had"runintoan
unprecedentedinformationattacksupportedbyfalsifications,intrigues,
andmanipulationsofthefactsbyRussianmassmediacontrolledbythe
Kremlin."Atthesametime,RSacknowledgedthatits'activists'were
"nowsubordinatedtothestate'sorgansofcoercion"(silovieorgany)
andthustheiractionswerewithinthelegallimits.[10]Inthisview,
theATOdeclaredbyUkraine'sgovernmentandtobecarriedoutbyits
silovikiprovideda'legal'frameworkforRStocarryoutthe
'operation'itsupposedlyhadnotcarriedout.

TheRussianForeignMinistryexpressedoutrageoverthekillingof
"innocent,peacefulcitizens,"regardeditasabreachoftheEaster
ceasefire,andblamedRightSector,addingthattheincident"testifies
toalackofdesireonthepartoftheauthoritiesinKievtoreinin
anddisarmnationalistsandextremists."[11]Ukraine'sforeignministry
inturnreproachedRussiaforrushingtojudgmentandfailingtofulfiil
itsobligationsundertheGenevadeal:"TheRussiansidemustbe
remindedabouttheirobligationsundertheGenevaagreementtobringall
necessaryinfluencetobearonseparatiststoclearillegallyheld
buildings,unblockroads,laydownarmsandpreventanybloodshed."[12]

YetdespitealltheofficialdenialsfromMaidanKievandtheRS,ayear
laterinaBBCinterview,Yaroshacknowledgedhetookpartincombaton
thatdayinSlavyansk.HealsoclaimedthatatthistimeRSalreadyhad
anunlikely10,000fightersinthevolunteerbattalionsofitsVolunteer
UkrainianCorps(DobrovolchiyUkrainskiyKorpus)orDUK.[13]Later,an
RS-affiliatedwebsiteincludedonitslistofheroicmemberskilled
duringtheATO,MikhailoStanislavenko,notinghewaskilledin
Slavyanskon20April2014.[14]Onthatdaytherewasonlyoneviolent
incidentinSlavyansk.

ForensicsevidencelateremergedfurtherconfirmingRSmilitants'
involvementintheincident.Forexample,two2016Ukrainiancourt
decisionsshowthatprosecutors'investigationshaddeterminedthattwo
RSfighterswerewoundedintheEasterattackandthattheyhadusedthe
verysamefirearmsusedonMaidanon18February2014tokilltwoMVD
troopsandwoundthreemore.Moreover,aneyewitnessreportedthatone
oftheSlavyanskseparatistskilledatthecheckpointwasshotbya
sniperand,forensicshasshownthesniperusedthesamekindof
expanding7.62mmcaliberbullets,whichwererecoveredatthesiteof
theattackatthecheckpoint,thatwereusedonMaidanandwiththesame
kindofAKMandhuntingcarbinesbasedontheKalashnikovassaultrifles
usedonMaidan.Also,Yarosh'sbusinesscard,alistwithnamesof
severalotherRSleaders,andanRSbattalion'sSecurityService
medallionnumber20wereseizedbyseparatistsduringthefight.Yetthe
involvementofRSintheattackwasimmediatelydeniednotjustbythe
RSbutbytheSBU,theMVD,theNationalSecurityandDefenseCouncil,
andpro-Maidanmedia,claimingagainwithoutanyevidencethatthe
Yaroshbusinesscardandotherevidencewerefabrications.[15]

Thus,severalfactssuggestthattheRSandultra-nationalistelements
intheSBUandtheNationalSecurityandDefenseCouncil,suchasits
chiefParubiy,stoodbehindtheEasterattack.First,thecouncil,the
SBUandotherstateorgansissuedwhatwasthenstillatleast
unverifiableanditappearsknowntobefalseinformationindesignating
theattackaRussianprovocationanddenyingRS'sinvolvement
involvementlateracknowledgedbytheRSitselfanddocumentedincourt
documents.ThisisconsistentwiththeMaidanUkraine'spracticeof
excessiveandnon-crediblestrategiccommunicationsanddisinformation,
usuallyblamingMoscow,suchaswasthecaseinthesnipers'massacre
andeventstocomeinOdessainMay.Second,theinvolvementofYarosh
andtheRSelementssuggestsaMaidan-styleprovocation,giventhe
historyoftheMaidansnipers'massacreandeventstocomeinOdessa.
Third,casualtiesweregreaterontherebelside,suggestingtheywere
attackedfirstbyYaroshandhisRSfighters.Indeed,Yaroshinthe
interviewayearlatermentionedabovedoesnotrefertotheclashasa
rebelorRussianattackorprovocation.WithKiev'sattackatSlavyansk,
theceasefireended.Ukraine'scivilwarwasabouttobegininearnest.
Luhansk:FromOblasttoInsurgency

TheRS'sApril20thEasterattackhadanimmediateeffectinLuhansk,
ignitingtheinsurgentflamethathadspreadinDonetsktoitsDonbass
neighbor.ThosewhoinearlyAprilstormedLuhansk'sgovernment
buildingsandothersremainedonthesquareneartheOGAforweeks,and
Kievundertooknoattempttonegotiatewiththem.Genevaofferedhope,
butnodialoguebeganandinsteadtheEasterattackescalatedthelevel
ofviolence,withthefirstcombatcasualtiesinDonbass.OnApril21st,
theprotestersorganizedaseriesofvechesacrosstheregiontoelect
delegatestoaregion-widevecheheldinLuhanskcitythesamedayand
attendedbyseveralthousand,chanting:"Russia!Referendum!"Some
protestersappearedtosupportUkraine'sfederalizationasapathto
regionalautonomywithinUkraine,whileotherssupportedUkraine's
reunificationwiththeRussianFederation.TheLuhanskvechedeclared
theLuhanskPeople'sRepublic(LNR)andtworeferenda.Onereferendum
wasscheduledforMay11thtodeterminewhethertheregionshouldseek
autonomousstatuswithinUkraine.Thesecond,scheduledforMay18th
wouldtodeterminewhethertheLNRshoulddeclareindependencefrom
UkraineorjointheRussianFederationshouldautonomywithinUkrainebe
rejectedonthe11th.[16]TheProsecutorGeneral'sOffice(GPO)deemed
therallies'separatist'innature:"Thedemonstrators'speeches,
insigniaandfederalizationslogans,aswellascallstoholdalocal
referendum,areexplicitlyseparatist.Theregionalprosecutor'soffice
seestheunrestintheLuhanskregionasillegalanditentered
informationonthemintothedatabaseofpre-trialinquiriestobe
controlledbytheLuhanskregionalprosecutor'soffice."[17]Aweek
latertheLNRwasofficiallydeclared,anditsleadersdemandedthat
KievrecognizetheauthorityoftheBolotovasthenewgovernor,provide
amnestytoallprotesters,codifyRussiaasastatelanguage,andholda
referendumonLuhansk'sstatusandtheMaidangovernmentleadershipdid
notmeetthesedemandsby14:00onApril29th,theywouldjoinwiththe
DNRinaninsurgencyagainsttheATO.[18]Kievneverreactedotherthan
todivertsomeATOforcestoLuhansk.Therewasnoturningback.RShad
ensuredtherewouldbeaDonbasscivilwar.

Footnotes
[1]"Mesyatsokkupatsii.Slavyansk"and"UkraineArmyLaunches
'Anti-Terror'Operation,"SkyNews,14April2014,
http://news.sky.com/story/1241376/ukraine-army-launches-anti-terror-operation.
[2]"Mesyatsokkupatsii.Slavyansk."
[3]"UkraineArmyLaunches'Anti-Terror'Operation."
[4]"GenevaStatementonUkraine,"EUExternalActionService,17April
2014,http://www.eeas.europa.eu/statements/docs/2014/140417_01_en.pdf.
[5]JulianBorgerandAlecLuhn,"Ukrainecrisis:Genevatalksagreement
ondefusingconflict,"TheGuardian,17April2014,
http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/apr/17/ukraine-crisis-agreement-us-russia-eu.
[6]YekaterinaStulen',"Boets'Pravogosektora'vzorvalsebyaidvukh
'zelenikhchelovechkov,"VestiUkraina,17April2014,
http://vesti-ukr.com/donbass/48168-boec-pravogo-sektora-vzorval-sebja-i-dvuh-zelenyh-chelovechkov.
[7]SeetheSBUstatementat"ShchodozbroinoiprovokatsiiuPaskhal'nu
nichbilyam.Slov'yansk,"SluzhbabezopekiUkrainy,20April2014,
http://www.sbu.gov.ua/sbu/control/uk/publish/article?art_id=124389&cat_id=39574.

Seealso"SBU:Separatistysrossiiskimydiversantamiinstsenirovali
napadenienablokpostSlavyanska,"Gordonua.com,20April2014,
http://gordonua.com/news/separatism/sbu-separatisty-s-rossiyskimi-diversantami-inscenirovali-vnesh
nee-napadenie-na-blokpost-slavyanska-19184.html.
[8]"VSNBOraskritikovalilzhivyiesoobshcheniyaRossiiskoipressyo
perestrelkevSlavyanske,"TSN.ru,20April2014,
http://ru.tsn.ua/politika/v-snbo-raskritikovali-lzhivye-soobscheniya-rossiyskoy-pressy-o-perestrel
ke-v-slavyanske-361755.html.
[9]AleksandrVasovicandAlissaDeCarbonnell,"Deadlygunattackin
easternUkraineshakesfragileGenevaaccord,"Reuters,20April2014,
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-ukraine-crisis-idUSBREA3A1B520140420.
[10]"Pravyisectorotritsaetsvoyuprichastnost'kperestrelkev
Slavyanske,"Korrespondent,20April2014,
http://korrespondent.net/ukraine/politics/3352145-pravyi-sektor-otrytsaet-svoui-prychastnost-k-per
estrelke-v-slavianske.
[11]"Pravyisectorotritsaetsvoyuprichastnost'kperestrelkev
Slavyanske."
[12]VasovicandDeCarbonnell,"DeadlygunattackineasternUkraine
shakesfragileGenevaaccord."
[13]"DmitroYarosh:namsheKrimpovertati,"BBC(Ukrainian),11
February2015,
http://www.bbc.com/ukrainian/politics/2015/02/150211_yarosh_interview_vs.
[14]"DUK5-IOkremiiBatal'ion,"VKontakte,12October2014,
http://archive.is/4a5bMcitedinIvanKatchanovski,"January26at
2:43,"Facebook,26January2016,
http://www.facebook.com/ivan.katchanovski/posts/1165670110129540.
[15]"UkhvalaimenemUkraini-SpravaNo.757/42824/15-k""Ukhvala
imenemUkraini-SpravaNo.757/47700/15-k"and"VSlavyanskePravyi
sektoratakovalblokpost,pogiblitroezhitelei,"YouTube,8April2015,
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9J3bp6Ml4agallcitedinKatchanovski,
"January26at2:43."
[16]"Luhanskprosecutorslaunchprobesintofederalizationsupport
rallies,"Interfax-Ukraine,21April2014,
http://en.interfax.com.ua/news/general/201534.htmland"VLuganske
separatistyreshiliprovestidvareferenduma,"Ukrainskayapravda,21
April2014,http://www.pravda.com.ua/rus/news/2014/04/21/7023176/.
[17]"Luhanskprosecutorslaunchprobesintofederalizationsupport
rallies."
[18]"LatestfromtheSpecialMonitoringMissiontoUkraine-basedon
informationreceivedupuntil28April2014,19:00(Kyivtime),"
OrganizationonSecurityandCooperationinEurope,28April2014,
http://www.osce.org/ukraine-smm/118153and"Federalizationsupportersin
Luhanskproclaimpeople'srepublic,"Tass,28April2014,
http://tass.ru/en/world/729768.
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 From: DonaldJensen<donald.jensen8@gmail.com>
Senttime: 04/16/201604:06:08AM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: Re:L.M.A.O.

Indeed.

Apparentlynotaself-parody.

OnSat,Apr16,2016at4:43AM,RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>wrote:

%seo%
Ru
News
Stories
Likeitornot
1850

Photo:DmitryKostyukov/TheNewYorkTimes/ScanpixButIloveRussia,andIloveRussiansFormerUSAmbassadortoRussiaMichaelMcFaulspeakstoMeduza
19:25,15April2016Meduza

MichaelMcFaul,aformeradvisortoPresidentBarackObama,isconsideredoneofthechiefauthorsofthefamousResetattemptedinUS-Russianrelations.From2012to2014,McFaulwasthe
USambassadortoRussia.AfterleavingMoscow,heleftthediplomaticserviceandreturnedtoteachingpoliticalscienceatStanfordUniversity.AmbassadorMcFaulrecentlysatdownwith
Meduza'sIlyaKrasilshchiktodiscusstheconflictsthatdivideRussiaandtheUStoday,howthetwocountries'leadersshouldstructurerelations,andwhyAmericasuffersfromashortageofexperts
specializinginRussia.

Thepasttwoweeks,travelingbetweenuniversitiesintheUS,I'veheardroughlythesamethingeverywhere:there'sanenormousproblemwithAmericanspecialistsonRussia.The
leadingexpertsarethestill-livingSovietologistswhosuddenlyfindthemselvesneededagain.Doyoufindthistobethecase?

It'smorecomplexthanthat.There'sgoodandthere'sbad.Ontheonehand,inacademia,aftertheendoftheColdWar,therewasarenaissanceinthestudyofRussia,becauseforthefirsttimeever
youcouldstudyRussialikeanormalcountry.Youcouldgothere.Youcouldtalktopeople.Youcoulddosurveydataonpublicopinion.Youcouldwriteaboutelections.Iwrotemanyarticlesand
onebookaboutRussianelections,whereweusedthesamemethodsthatweusetostudyAmericanelections.

AndIwouldsaythatperiodwasagreatgrowthtimeforacademicsinterestedinRussia,andthat'smygeneration(peopleyoungerthantheCold-Wargeneration,butnotthenewgeneration
somewhereinbetween).

Butthentwoorthreethingshappenedthathavecreatedthisproblem,orthiscrisis[inthefieldofRussianstudies].Oneisthat,inAmericansocialsciences(economics,politicalscienceI'minthe
departmentofpoliticalsciencehere[atStanford]),there'satrendawayfromstudyingonecountry.SoifyoulookatthesuperstarsinpoliticalscienceinAmerica,they'renotspecialistsonRussiaor
ChinaorCanadaorFrancethey'respecialistsongeneraltrends:therelationshipbetweendemocracyanddevelopment,andsoon.Theyusestatisticaldatatocomparelotsofcountries.Atmy
departmenthereatStanford,too,thesescholarsarethestars.

That'swherethetrendsareforpoliticalscience:they'renotforpeoplethatknowindividualcountries,likeme.So,ifyoulookaroundthemajoruniversitiesinAmerica,you'llfindfewerandfewer
Russiaspecialists,andthatmeanswedon'tteachgraduatestudentsorMaster'sstudentsorundergraduatesaboutRussia.Weteachthemaboutmoregeneraltrends.Andthathasledtoafallingoffof
studentsespeciallyyoung,PhDstudentswhothenbecomeprofessorswhotrytokeepRussianstudiesalive.

Oneotherthingthathashappenedwhatisanothertrendisthatthere'sbeenanexplosionofthinktanksinWashington.YouprobablynoticedtheminWashington,right?

Yes,they'reeverywhere.

They'reeverywhere!

ThegoodnewsaboutthatisthattherearespecialistsonRussiawhocangetjobsinthosethinktanks,whocouldnevergetajobinauniversity.Thebadnews,inmyopinion,isthatthere'snotmuch
qualitycontrol.Anybodycansay,I'maRussiaspecialist,andthenappearonTV,andwriteablog.There'snodifferencebetweenaprofessoratHarvardandadirectorofathinktankinWashington
inthenoisethatistheexperts.

AndIknowmycolleaguesinacademia.Yousee,I'mveryrare.Igobackandforth.Therearen'tmanypeoplewhowereingovernmentandalsopoliticalscienceprofessors.Thereareveryfewofus
(likethreeorfourinthewholecountry).Ithinkthat'sledtoadeteriorationofanalysisofRussia.

Thegoodnewsisthatpeoplecanadapt,andinstitutescanadapt.Istartedaprogramon[Russia]recently,andjustlikethat[snapsfingers]wehadlotsofstudentinterestinthingsrelatedtoRussiaand
Europe.Ithinkit'sincumbentonpeoplelikemetohelpbringRussianstudiesbacktotheuniversity.BecauseImyselfhavenottaughtacourseonRussiafor15years.Ihaven'tevenbeenteaching
aboutRussiaI'vebeenteachingaboutdemocratization,USforeignpolicy,democracydevelopment,andruleoflaw.ThosearethecoursesI'vebeenteaching.I'vedecidedthatnextyearI'mgoingto
gobacktoteachingRussia.

Butyou'reinStanfordandallthesethinktanksareinWashington,DC.Andthey'retherebecausetheywanttoinfluencepolicy.

That'sright.

PresidentDmitryMedvedevduringhisvisittotheUSin2010.
Photo:DmitryAstakhov/TASS/Scanpix

I'vebeentoldthatnobodyintheUnitedStatesisterriblyinterestedingettinginvolvedwithRussia,butit'stheoppositewithChinaandtheMiddleEast.Therewillalwaysbe
businesstodowithChina,andtheMiddleEastwillalwaysbeamess.ButwhenitcomestoRussia,youcan'talwaysdobusiness,andit'snotawfulenoughallthetimetoguarantee
afuture,intermsofacareer.

Ithinkthat'strue.Tome,it'stragic.Tome,ifyougobackjustseveralyears,whentherewerenewopportunities,andtherewasapushtohavemorecontactwithRussia.PresidentMedvedevcameto
Stanford.Hespokeherein2010,andwasgreetedbythousandsofpeople.Hemetwithourstudents,anditfeltlikethiswasgoingtobesomething.TherewasSiliconValley,andtherewere
companiesinRussia.Lotsofactivity.

Andnowthere'slotsofuncertainty,intermsofcareerpaths.You'reright.AndsonowtheonlycareerpathwithguaranteedjobsecurityisintheUSgovernment,butthosejobsarenotinteresting,
unlessyougetinatthehighestlevels.AtaplacelikeStanford,andthisisoneofthemostprestigiousuniversitiesinthecountryrightnow,whywouldyoudoallthat,whenyoucanjustwalkdownthe
streetandgoworkforGoogle?Sowe'recompetingtogetthosepeopleinterestedinRussia-relatedjobs.It'saproblem.

ButrightnowtheprobleminUS-Russianrelationsisn'taboutwhathappensintheyearstocome,butwhathappensrightnow.DoestheUSgovernmenthaveaproblemtodayfinding
qualifiedareaexperts?

I'dsaytwothings:oneisthat,despitealltheproblems,inmyopinion(andI'maverybiasedpersonhereIworkedforsevenyearsforObama,twointhecampaignandfiveinthegovernment)...It
wasmyview,whenIwasinthegovernment,that,intheseniorpositionsdealingwithRussia,wehadtremendousexpertise.

OveratthePentagon,wehadCelesteWallander,whonowworksforthepresidentattheWhiteHouse.(She'saformerHarvardprofessor.)AttheStateDepartment,atmylevel,wehadalotof
strongpeople.WhenIworkedattheembassy,myseniorstaff(keywordsenior)werefirstrate.Mypoliticalofficer,forinstance,wasaguynamedHowardSolomon.(HeworksinLithuanianow.)
HeknowsmoreaboutRussiathananybodyintheUSknew20yearsagoor30yearsago.

Buthere'stheproblem:it'sthin,anditcaneasilychange.Andwe'vegotelectionscomingup.

Andwhatabouttheelections?WillUS-RussianrelationschangewithanewUSpresident?IsRussiaanissueatallintheUSpresidentialelection?

IsRussiaatheme?Atalowlevel,yes.Anditwillbecomeabiggertheme,ifit'sClintonversusTrump,becauseTrumphassaidsomevery...uniquethingsaboutUS-Russianrelations.Andhe'ssaid
someveryuniquethingsaboutourrelationshipwithouralliesinEuropethatwillcreateadebate.

He'ssaiduniquethingsaboutnearlyeverything,itseems...

Yes.I'mtryingtobediplomatic!I'madiplomat!

Infulldisclosure,IamaninformaladvisortoSecretaryClinton.She'sanotherofmyoldbosses.Wejusthostedher[atStanford]lastweek.IhaveaprettygoodsenseofherpositionsonRussiain
fact,averygoodsense.Bytheway,afterIintroducedher,shesaidthankyouandsoon,andthenImentionedsomethingaboutourlasttriptogether,whichwastoVladivostok.Andshesaid,making
everyonelaugh,WhathappensinVladivostok,staysinVladivostok.

BecauseofTrump'spositions,you'regoingtohaveadebateabouthowtodealwithPutin.You'regoingtohaveadebateabouttheNATOalliance.Andyou'regoingtohaveadebateaboutUkraine.
Traditionally,foreignpolicyisn'timportantatallinAmericanpolitics.Whenitis,it'susuallynotaboutRussia.But,asitwasin2008,whenIworkedonthatcampaignwithPresidentObama,when
there'sabigeventinRussia...Backthen,itwastheRussian-Georgianwar.Thistime,itwillbeRussianinterventioninUkraine.ThereisagroupofvotersinAmericawhocarealotaboutRussian
policy.TherearepeopleofEastEuropeandescent:Latvians,Lithuanians,Poles.

Howmanypeoplearewetalkingabout?

Itdependsonwhichstate.RememberourElectoralCollegeiseverything.ButtheytendtobeconcentratedinwhatwecallswingstatesinstatesthatsometimesgoDemocraticandsometimesgo
Republican.So,Pennsylvania,Wisconsin,Michigan,Florida.Floridaisabigswingstate,andtherearetensofthousandsofPolish-AmericansinFlorida.

AndtheycareaboutRussia?

AndtheycarealotaboutRussia(inthewaysthatyouwouldguess).AndtherearelotsofUkrainian-AmericansinPennsylvania,forinstance.Forthosegroups,thisisgoingtobeanissuewhere
TrumpversusClintonisastarkcontrast,ifit'sthosetwo.Andthiscouldhaveaninfluenceontheelection.

SoRussiabecomesmoreofanissueinaracebetweenthesetwocandidates?

Correct.Butnotuntilthen.It'stooearlynow.
HillaryClintonandMichaelMcFaul.March2016.
Photo:CarolynKaster/AP/Scanpix

WhendiscussingRussiatodayintheUnitedStates,howpossibleisittoavoidtheterminologyoftheColdWar?Itseemsdangerouswhentwocountriescanonlytalkabouteach
otherasenemies...

Asyoumightimagine,IgivealotoftalksonRussia,alloverthecountry.Aboutonceeverytwoweeks,I'mgivingamajortalk.AndI'dsayacoupleofthings.One,there'sabiginterestinRussia.I'm
sometimesspeakingto800peopleinstateslikeMontana.EighthundredpeoplecametomytalkaboutRussiainMontana.IwasinnorthernFloridasixmonthsago.Ninehundredpeopleshowedup
foratalkonRussia.WhatImeantosayisthatthereisinterestinthistopic.

Thesewerejustregularpeoplewhocametolistentoyou?

Yes,justregularpeople.Notexperts.

IalsoworkforanewsagencycalledNBCNews,soIcantelltheebbandflowofthenewsinterestbywhentheyaskmetobeonTV.AndIwouldsaythatyourgeneralthesisisabsolutelyright.
There'saverysimplifiedstorythatgoesbacktotheColdWar.Mostpeoplefocusonitsoutcome,andwhenIgivemytalksI'veseenthis.

Butthere'sabiggerdebateaboutwho'satfault.AndIthinkyou'dbesurprisedespeciallyatuniversitycampusesthatthequestionismorecontestedamongelites,especiallyliberalelitesin
America.Andthat'sfine.Ihavemyownverystrongviewsonthat,personally.AndI'mactuallywritingabookaboutit,soIhavemyownargument.

ButthebiggestmessageIalwayshave,inallofmyspeechesandwhenI'monTV,aswell,istofightthestereotypesaboutRussiaandRussians.ThefirstthingIsayisthatyou'renotallowedinmy
classormylecturestosaythingslike,RussiathinksthisorRussiathinksweshould...I'venevermetMr.Russia.HaveyoumetMr.Russia?I'venevermetthatguy,oraMs.Russia.[Laughs.]

There'snooneviewinRussia.Theremaybemorepopularviews,butit'samuchmorecomplexsocietythanIwouldsaymoreAmericansandEuropeansunderstand.It'smuchmorenuanced.And
eventhewaytheregimeMr.Putinandhisregimedealswithsocietyismuchmorecomplex.[Justlookat]howtheydealwithyou[Meduza]!MostAmericansareshockedthatMeduzaexists.
Andthatyou'renotarrestedwhenyouflytoMoscow.

Yes,I'veheardthismanytimesfromAmericans.

Sothat'sinteresting,right?ThatmeansRussiaisnotexactlylikepeoplethinkitis.

AndwhatarethechancesofimprovingrelationsbetweenRussiaandtheUS?Itseemslikebothpresidentshavegivenupononeanother.

I'dsaythreethings.Theconflictsarereal.Andthey'renotjustbasedonpersonalitydifferencesbetweenPutinandObama,orsomethinglikethat.It'sbecauseit'saviewsharedbyeveryoneinthe
ObamaadministrationandmostAmericanforeignpolicyelitesthatRussiaannexedterritoryinUkraineandthenfomentedthisproxywar[intheDonbas],andthatviolatestherulesoftheinternational
system.

I'vemetlotsofRussianswhosay,Canwejustgetoverthis,andgetbacktodoingbusiness?Andthatfundamentalconflictwillnotgoawayanytimesoon,inmyopinion.

ThesecondthingI'dsayisthatI'veworkedwithPutin,I'vebeeninmanymeetingswithPutin,andhefundamentallythinksoftheUnitedStatesasacompetitorandanenemy.That'snotgoingto
change.He'shadthatviewforalongtime.Ifirstmethimin1991.

1991?Andhewassayingthesamething?

Well,Ididn'tknowhimaswellthen.Letmejustspeakabouthimaspresident.I'veseenhimtalkwithObamaabouttheseissues,andhe'sgotthatviewandthat'snotgoingtochange.

Imethimactuallythrough[formerSt.PetersburgMayorAnatoly]Sobchak.ItwasaprogramIwasdoingwithSobchak,andPutinwasinchargeofforeigncontactsforSobchak.

VladimirPutinandAnatolySobchakin1993.
Photo:MikhailRazuvaev/Kommersant
DoyourememberanythingaboutPutinspecificallyfromthisperiod?

Notmuch.Hedidn'tmakeabigimpression.Hisdeputymadeabiggerimpressiononme.IgorSechin.ImetSechinbackthen,too.Hewasveryfriendly.HewasoneofthefirstguysImetwho
openlytoldmethattheyworkedforSovietintelligencethiswasstillintheSovietUnion.(Thiswasin1991beforethecollapse.)Igottoknowhim[Sechin]prettywell.WebothspeakPortuguese.

YoutalkedinPortuguese?

Alittlebit.ButtherearetwomorethingsIwanttosay:oneisthatwecanagreetodisagreeononesetofissues,andcooperateinasmallerspaceonotherissues.AndIthinkthat'swhatObamais
doing.Andthat'swhatthenextpresidentshoulddo,butwithnoillusionsthatcooperationinSyriaisgoingtoleadtoanotherReset.Ithinkthat'snaive,andthat'snotgoingtohappen.Iwastheauthor
oftheReset.I'mtoblame.

Whyareyoutoblame?

Imeanthatmanycriticsblameme,sayingweweretheoneswhodidthis[attemptedtheReset],anditwasamistake.Idon'tagreewiththis.I'mwritingabookrightnowabouthowwewererightto
havedonewhatwedid.It'scalledTheReset.

ThelastthingI'llsayisthat,evenwhenthereisdisagreementabouttheseotherthings,wecannotisolateRussians.I'mnotsayingRussia[thecountry]I'msayingRussians[thepeople].Tome,that's
notgoodforourinterests.Idon'tthinkit'sgoodforRussia'sinterests,andsowehavetomakesurethatwetrytokeepbordersopen,keepuniversitiesopen,andkeepexchangesgoing...

Butisn'tthereadangerthatyouisolateRussianswhenyouisolateRussia?Technically,ourowngovernmentisisolatingus,butit'sinresponsetoRussia'sinternationalisolation.

AndweneedtomakesurethatRussiansunderstandthatit'stheirgovernmentdoingthat,notus.Ihavenoproblemwithyouatallcriticizingmypresident.Knockyourselfout.I'vehearditall.Iused
tobetheambassador,right?

Butwhatyoucan'tdoissay,BecauseyourpresidentwassuchanidiotonSyria,I'mnotgoingtogotoStanford.That'scrazy.It'scrazy.Justlikeforme,Iwasverycriticaloflotsofpoliciesthatthe
Putingovernmentdid,butIloveRussia.AndIloveRussians.Andyoucan'tmakemeouttobeanti-RussianjustbecauseofwhatIsaidaboutSyria.Andthat'sthethingthatIthinkwehavetofight
against.

ButdoyouthinktheUSgovernmentshouldworktoisolateRussiafromtheworld?TheRussiathat'sresponsibleforannexingCrimea?

Notisolate,butthereneedtobeconsequencesforbadbehavior.So,whenRussiaannexedCrimea,Ithinkitwas100percentrighttodosanctions.IfsanctionsareisolatingRussiangovernment
officials,welltheyshouldthinkaboutthatthenexttimetheythinkaboutannexingterritory.And,bytheway,theyare!Ithinksanctionshavebeenincrediblyeffective.Absolutely.

RegardingCrimea,theUShasstatedthatannexingpartofanothercountrywillresultinconsequences.ButMoscowrespondsthatRussiaisn'ttheonlystatethatchangestherules
here,andtheKremlinpoints,ofcourse,toIraqandAmerica'scampaignthere.ButtherewerenosanctionsagainsttheUSoritscoalition.HowshouldtheUnitedStateshandlethis
perceptioninRussia?

Iwouldsaytwothings.OneisthattheUnitedStatesactuallypaidaterriblepriceforinvadingIraq.ThousandsofAmericansdied,tensofthousandsofIraqisdied,wespentalotofmoneythere,and
weachievedverylittleresults.Andwealienatedlotsofouralliesduringthattime.Wereformaleconomicsanctionsputinplaceagainstus?No.Butdidwepayaterriblepriceforthat?Myansweris
yes.

ThesecondthingIwouldsayisthatwehavethisphraseinEnglish:twowrongsdon'tmakearight.Soifyoustealmybicycletoday,doesthatgivemearighttostealyourbicycletomorrow?That'sa
strangelogic.Right?IfyouthoughtIraqwaswrong,thenyoushouldthinkthesekindsofunilateralusesofforcearealsowrong.IfyouthinkKrymnash[Crimeaisours]wasright,thenyouhaveto
say,Oh,well,theIraqwarthatwasfine.Butpeopledon'tsaythat.Theysay,Okay,wellwhatabout....It'scalledwhataboutism.WellwhataboutIraq?WellwhataboutSyria?Whataboutthis
andwhataboutthat?

Mypointisthattwowrongsdon'tmakearight.IfyouwereforthewarinIraq,oryou'reforSyria,orforKosovo,andmoredirectlytoRussia(becausethoseanalogiesarealittlebitfalse,inmy
view)the[analogy]that'sclosesttoRussiaisifyouwereforChechenindependence.People[there]wantedindependence.IfyouwereforChechenindependence,thenIcanunderstandyour
enthusiasmforCrimeajoining.ButifyouwereagainstChechenindependence,eventhoughthemajorityofthepeoplewantedtoleave[theRussianFederation],youcan'tbeforannexation.That'sjust
logicallyinconsistent.

I'vespentagreatdealoftimelookingatPutin'sspeeches.Idoitforaliving,butImeanaboutCrimea[specifically].Idon'trememberaspeechbefore2014whereMr.Putinsaidit'sagreatinjustice
thatKhrushchevgaveawayCrimea,andWeneedthisback.AndIcan'trecallaspeechwherehesaid,DoyouknowthattheethnicRussiansinCrimeaarebeingdiscriminatedagainst?They're
beingkilled.It'sveryunstableandveryuncertainthere,andwehavetodefendthem.Ifsomebodyhadsaidthatbefore2014,thatwouldbealittlemoreinteresting.Butthefactthatit'sallsaid
afterwardssuggeststomethatthisisreallyaboutwhathappenedinMaidan,andnotaboutCrimea.

WhataboutRussiaafterPutin?It'shardtoimagineanyfutureRussianpresidentwhowouldgiveCrimeaback.Itwouldbepoliticalsuicide.SohowdoestheWestandtheUSdeal
withthenextRussianpresident,evenifhe'sdemocraticandmuchbetter?

Idon'tknowtheanswertothatquestion.

Butthisistherealityinfiveortenyears.

MypredictionisthatitwillbethepolicyoftheUnitedStates,whetherit'saDemocratorRepublicanpresident,fordecadestocome,toneverrecognizetheannexationofCrimea.Toholdontothe
falseillusionthatthat[position]mightchangewouldbemisguidedpolicy.

Atthesametime,Icanimagineascenariowhereprogressonotherfrontswouldleadto...iftherewereatrue,democratizingmomentinRussia,thatthatwouldbeembraced.WhatIworryaboutis
thatwewon'trecognizethosemomentsbecausethere'ssuchlittlefaithinAmericarightnowthattherecanbepositivechangeinRussiaatall.Iworryaboutthis.Iworryaboutisolationism.

Iworryaboutpeoplejustcheckingoutandjustthinkingthatthere'snothinggoodthatcanbedonethere.Let'sjuststopthinkingaboutRussia.That,tome,istherealtendencyrightnow.It'snot
confrontation.Sometimes,whenIspeaktoRussians,theythinkthatAmericansgetupeverymorningandallwedoisthinkaboutChtodelat'sRossiei?(WhatdowedowithRussia?)Thatwe
wonderwhatshouldwedotoweakenRussia?That'swhatIworryabout.Iworryaboutindifference.Iworryaboutpeoplenotcaring,thinkingRussiadoesn'tmatter.

Russiaisisolatingitself.Lookatittoday.WejusthadalmosteverymajorleaderontheplanetinWashington[forthefourthNuclearSecuritySummit].Putin'snotthere.Hedecidednottocome.I
worrythatpeoplewillbegintothinkaboutRussiaasnotbeingevenimportanttoengage.AndthatwouldbeatragedyforRussiaandatragedyfortheUnitedStates.

So,ontheonehand,wehaveRussiaignoringimportantinternationalmeetings,andontheotherhandwehaveSyria,whereMoscowhasmadeitabundantlyclearthatthiscampaign
waspartofbringingRussiabacktoglobalpolitics.Whytheparadox?

Ithinkthat'sthewrongwaytothinkofSyria.That'swhatthegovernmentsells,right?ButIhaveadifferentview.IthinkPutinhasbeenquitesuccessfulinhispolicyinSyria.Ithinkweshould
acknowledgethatthatheachievedhisobjective.AndhisobjectivewastostrengthenAssad,andhe'sdonethat.HisobjectivewasnottodefeatISIS,despitewhateverpropagandahasbeensaid.
It'sasclearasdaythatthatwasnothisobjective.MostoftheattackswerenotagainstISIStheywereagainstothergroupsthere.Butweshouldgivehimcreditthatheachievedhisobjective.
2016NuclearSecuritySummitinWashington,DC.
Photo:SeanKilpatrick/TheCanadianPress/PAImages/Scanpix

Butisn'tAssadfightingISIS,too?

IntermsoffightingISIS,theUnitedStatesandthecoalitionarefightingISISalotmorethanMr.Assad.Now,don'tgetmewrong:it'sveryrational.Ithinkit'sasmartpolicytosaynowthatAssad
needstobepartofthenegotiations,sowecanhaveacoalitiongovernmenttodealwithISIS.That's[Russia's]strategy.Butnobody(atleastamongthepeopleIknow,whoaredealingwiththe
Russians,andIknowmanypeople)isthinking,Oh!Isn'titgreatthatRussiaisnowagreatactorinthewar!It'smorelikeRussiaputaguntoourheadandthey'veachievedthisresult,andwehave
todealwiththem.

Soyou'renotcomingintotheinternationalcommunityonSyriaasarespectedpartnerPutiniscominginasanecessarypartner.It'sastrategy.Igetit.Youcanbeatoughguy.Bulliesgetalotof
attention.Toughguysgetalotofattention,butitdoesn'tmeanreintegration.Idon'tthinkanybodyhaschangedtheirviewsaboutMr.PutinasaresultofSyria.

SotheUS-ledcoalitionisactuallybombingISIS,butpartofthiscoalitionisTurkey,whichweknowhasbombedtheKurds.Erdoanisatoughguy,too.He'sabully,too.Sowhyis
hepartofAmerica'scoalition?

Erdoanisverycomplicated.You'reexactlyright.Ontheonehand,wehavesimilarobjectives.Youknow:theenemyofmyenemyismyfriend.Butonsomeveryparticularissues,wehaveradical
differenceswithMr.Erdoan.HejustsaidthatinhisspeechyesterdayinWashingtonabouthowwetotallydisagreeabouttheroleoftheKurdsinSyria.

AndTurkeyhasanopenborderwithISIS.

Butit'sanillustrationofmypoint:thebullythatisErdoanwehavetodealwithhimbecauseofthenatureofthecrisis.Butnobodyisrespectinghimforwhatheisdoing.HejustcametoWashington
andthepresidentoftheUnitedStatesdidn'tevenmeetwithhim.

You'vepointedoutthetensionbetweenhavingcommoninterestsbutmaybenotcommonvalues.Andthathappensalotindiplomacy.

RussiansoldiersatPalmyra,Syria.April2016.
Photo:ValerySharifulin/TASS/Scanpix

Soyou'velaidoutaverypragmaticpositionregardingTurkey.WiththeUSandothercountries,itseemstherearetwogeneralstrategies:thepolicyofpragmatism,whereyou
cooperatewithnationswhenit'sinyourcurrentinterests,andthepolicyofwe'respreadingdemocracythroughouttheworld.Howdoyoureconcilethesetwostrategies?

Iwouldsayafewthings.Firstofall,itistruethattheUnitedStates,overourhistory,fromtheverybeginning,hashadalliesthatareautocraticregimes.Ourfirstremember,goingallthewaybackto
thebeginningoftheAmericanRepublicourmostimportantallywasFrance,amonarchyandadictatorship.Theyarethereasonwhywe'refree.WithouttheFrench,wewouldhavelostthewar
againsttheBritish.And,justsoyouknow,ifyougobackandyoulookatthathistory,thentherewastheFrenchRevolution,andtherewasadebateinWashingtonaboutwhetherwesupportourallies
andourinterestsorthesepeoplewhowanteddemocracy.Sothetensiongoesallthewaybacktothebeginning.

ThesecondthingIwouldsayisthatourmostenduringallieshavealwaysbeendemocracies.IfyouthinkaboutAmerica'sclosestpartnersintheworld,they'redemocracies.Alloftheautocracieswith
whichwe'vehadalliancerelationshipshavealwaysbeentense.Andtheyonlybecomestablewhenthosecountriesmaketransitions.Throughoutourhistory.

Andthere'ssomethingI'vewrittenaboutcalledthefalsepromiseofautocraticstability,whichistosaythatautocraciescanbeouralliesbutthey'reneverourlong-termalliesbecauseautocracies
havetheproblemofremaininginpower.SoIranwasanincrediblycloseallyoftheUnitedStatesfordecadesundertheShah.Andthen,oneyear,theybecameourworstenemy.Thatonlyhappensin
autocracies.Itdoesn'thappenwithdemocraticalliances.

ThefourththingIwouldsayaboutthistensionyou'vehighlightedisthatit'sreal.There'snosolution.Ourcriticssay,Wellyouneedtobepure,onewayortheother.AndIwouldjustsaythat,[with]
alladministrations(Obama,Bush,Clinton,andallthewaybacktotheFrenchRevolution),thisisatensionbetweeninterestsandvalues.Thewaypresidentsresolveitistheysaywehaveshort-term
intereststhatwehavetopursue,andwealsoneedtopursueourlong-termvaluesourlong-terminterestinsupportingvalues.AndIagreewiththat.Ithinkthat'ssmart.WhatIthinkisnotsmartis
theuseofmilitaryforcetopromotedemocracy.Itjustdoesn'twork.Itneverhas.Andweshouldgetoutofthatbusiness.

IlyaKrasilshchik

PaloAlto,California
About
Advertise
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2016Meduza.Allrightsreserved.Design:Charmer.
 From: DonaldJensen<donald.jensen8@gmail.com>
Senttime: 04/16/201604:06:08AM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: Re:L.M.A.O.

Indeed.

Apparentlynotaself-parody.

OnSat,Apr16,2016at4:43AM,RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>wrote:

%seo%
Ru
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Stories
Likeitornot
1850

Photo:DmitryKostyukov/TheNewYorkTimes/ScanpixButIloveRussia,andIloveRussiansFormerUSAmbassadortoRussiaMichaelMcFaulspeakstoMeduza
19:25,15April2016Meduza

MichaelMcFaul,aformeradvisortoPresidentBarackObama,isconsideredoneofthechiefauthorsofthefamousResetattemptedinUS-Russianrelations.From2012to2014,McFaulwasthe
USambassadortoRussia.AfterleavingMoscow,heleftthediplomaticserviceandreturnedtoteachingpoliticalscienceatStanfordUniversity.AmbassadorMcFaulrecentlysatdownwith
Meduza'sIlyaKrasilshchiktodiscusstheconflictsthatdivideRussiaandtheUStoday,howthetwocountries'leadersshouldstructurerelations,andwhyAmericasuffersfromashortageofexperts
specializinginRussia.

Thepasttwoweeks,travelingbetweenuniversitiesintheUS,I'veheardroughlythesamethingeverywhere:there'sanenormousproblemwithAmericanspecialistsonRussia.The
leadingexpertsarethestill-livingSovietologistswhosuddenlyfindthemselvesneededagain.Doyoufindthistobethecase?

It'smorecomplexthanthat.There'sgoodandthere'sbad.Ontheonehand,inacademia,aftertheendoftheColdWar,therewasarenaissanceinthestudyofRussia,becauseforthefirsttimeever
youcouldstudyRussialikeanormalcountry.Youcouldgothere.Youcouldtalktopeople.Youcoulddosurveydataonpublicopinion.Youcouldwriteaboutelections.Iwrotemanyarticlesand
onebookaboutRussianelections,whereweusedthesamemethodsthatweusetostudyAmericanelections.

AndIwouldsaythatperiodwasagreatgrowthtimeforacademicsinterestedinRussia,andthat'smygeneration(peopleyoungerthantheCold-Wargeneration,butnotthenewgeneration
somewhereinbetween).

Butthentwoorthreethingshappenedthathavecreatedthisproblem,orthiscrisis[inthefieldofRussianstudies].Oneisthat,inAmericansocialsciences(economics,politicalscienceI'minthe
departmentofpoliticalsciencehere[atStanford]),there'satrendawayfromstudyingonecountry.SoifyoulookatthesuperstarsinpoliticalscienceinAmerica,they'renotspecialistsonRussiaor
ChinaorCanadaorFrancethey'respecialistsongeneraltrends:therelationshipbetweendemocracyanddevelopment,andsoon.Theyusestatisticaldatatocomparelotsofcountries.Atmy
departmenthereatStanford,too,thesescholarsarethestars.

That'swherethetrendsareforpoliticalscience:they'renotforpeoplethatknowindividualcountries,likeme.So,ifyoulookaroundthemajoruniversitiesinAmerica,you'llfindfewerandfewer
Russiaspecialists,andthatmeanswedon'tteachgraduatestudentsorMaster'sstudentsorundergraduatesaboutRussia.Weteachthemaboutmoregeneraltrends.Andthathasledtoafallingoffof
studentsespeciallyyoung,PhDstudentswhothenbecomeprofessorswhotrytokeepRussianstudiesalive.

Oneotherthingthathashappenedwhatisanothertrendisthatthere'sbeenanexplosionofthinktanksinWashington.YouprobablynoticedtheminWashington,right?

Yes,they'reeverywhere.

They'reeverywhere!

ThegoodnewsaboutthatisthattherearespecialistsonRussiawhocangetjobsinthosethinktanks,whocouldnevergetajobinauniversity.Thebadnews,inmyopinion,isthatthere'snotmuch
qualitycontrol.Anybodycansay,I'maRussiaspecialist,andthenappearonTV,andwriteablog.There'snodifferencebetweenaprofessoratHarvardandadirectorofathinktankinWashington
inthenoisethatistheexperts.

AndIknowmycolleaguesinacademia.Yousee,I'mveryrare.Igobackandforth.Therearen'tmanypeoplewhowereingovernmentandalsopoliticalscienceprofessors.Thereareveryfewofus
(likethreeorfourinthewholecountry).Ithinkthat'sledtoadeteriorationofanalysisofRussia.

Thegoodnewsisthatpeoplecanadapt,andinstitutescanadapt.Istartedaprogramon[Russia]recently,andjustlikethat[snapsfingers]wehadlotsofstudentinterestinthingsrelatedtoRussiaand
Europe.Ithinkit'sincumbentonpeoplelikemetohelpbringRussianstudiesbacktotheuniversity.BecauseImyselfhavenottaughtacourseonRussiafor15years.Ihaven'tevenbeenteaching
aboutRussiaI'vebeenteachingaboutdemocratization,USforeignpolicy,democracydevelopment,andruleoflaw.ThosearethecoursesI'vebeenteaching.I'vedecidedthatnextyearI'mgoingto
gobacktoteachingRussia.

Butyou'reinStanfordandallthesethinktanksareinWashington,DC.Andthey'retherebecausetheywanttoinfluencepolicy.

That'sright.

PresidentDmitryMedvedevduringhisvisittotheUSin2010.
Photo:DmitryAstakhov/TASS/Scanpix

I'vebeentoldthatnobodyintheUnitedStatesisterriblyinterestedingettinginvolvedwithRussia,butit'stheoppositewithChinaandtheMiddleEast.Therewillalwaysbe
businesstodowithChina,andtheMiddleEastwillalwaysbeamess.ButwhenitcomestoRussia,youcan'talwaysdobusiness,andit'snotawfulenoughallthetimetoguarantee
afuture,intermsofacareer.

Ithinkthat'strue.Tome,it'stragic.Tome,ifyougobackjustseveralyears,whentherewerenewopportunities,andtherewasapushtohavemorecontactwithRussia.PresidentMedvedevcameto
Stanford.Hespokeherein2010,andwasgreetedbythousandsofpeople.Hemetwithourstudents,anditfeltlikethiswasgoingtobesomething.TherewasSiliconValley,andtherewere
companiesinRussia.Lotsofactivity.

Andnowthere'slotsofuncertainty,intermsofcareerpaths.You'reright.AndsonowtheonlycareerpathwithguaranteedjobsecurityisintheUSgovernment,butthosejobsarenotinteresting,
unlessyougetinatthehighestlevels.AtaplacelikeStanford,andthisisoneofthemostprestigiousuniversitiesinthecountryrightnow,whywouldyoudoallthat,whenyoucanjustwalkdownthe
streetandgoworkforGoogle?Sowe'recompetingtogetthosepeopleinterestedinRussia-relatedjobs.It'saproblem.

ButrightnowtheprobleminUS-Russianrelationsisn'taboutwhathappensintheyearstocome,butwhathappensrightnow.DoestheUSgovernmenthaveaproblemtodayfinding
qualifiedareaexperts?

I'dsaytwothings:oneisthat,despitealltheproblems,inmyopinion(andI'maverybiasedpersonhereIworkedforsevenyearsforObama,twointhecampaignandfiveinthegovernment)...It
wasmyview,whenIwasinthegovernment,that,intheseniorpositionsdealingwithRussia,wehadtremendousexpertise.

OveratthePentagon,wehadCelesteWallander,whonowworksforthepresidentattheWhiteHouse.(She'saformerHarvardprofessor.)AttheStateDepartment,atmylevel,wehadalotof
strongpeople.WhenIworkedattheembassy,myseniorstaff(keywordsenior)werefirstrate.Mypoliticalofficer,forinstance,wasaguynamedHowardSolomon.(HeworksinLithuanianow.)
HeknowsmoreaboutRussiathananybodyintheUSknew20yearsagoor30yearsago.

Buthere'stheproblem:it'sthin,anditcaneasilychange.Andwe'vegotelectionscomingup.

Andwhatabouttheelections?WillUS-RussianrelationschangewithanewUSpresident?IsRussiaanissueatallintheUSpresidentialelection?

IsRussiaatheme?Atalowlevel,yes.Anditwillbecomeabiggertheme,ifit'sClintonversusTrump,becauseTrumphassaidsomevery...uniquethingsaboutUS-Russianrelations.Andhe'ssaid
someveryuniquethingsaboutourrelationshipwithouralliesinEuropethatwillcreateadebate.

He'ssaiduniquethingsaboutnearlyeverything,itseems...

Yes.I'mtryingtobediplomatic!I'madiplomat!

Infulldisclosure,IamaninformaladvisortoSecretaryClinton.She'sanotherofmyoldbosses.Wejusthostedher[atStanford]lastweek.IhaveaprettygoodsenseofherpositionsonRussiain
fact,averygoodsense.Bytheway,afterIintroducedher,shesaidthankyouandsoon,andthenImentionedsomethingaboutourlasttriptogether,whichwastoVladivostok.Andshesaid,making
everyonelaugh,WhathappensinVladivostok,staysinVladivostok.

BecauseofTrump'spositions,you'regoingtohaveadebateabouthowtodealwithPutin.You'regoingtohaveadebateabouttheNATOalliance.Andyou'regoingtohaveadebateaboutUkraine.
Traditionally,foreignpolicyisn'timportantatallinAmericanpolitics.Whenitis,it'susuallynotaboutRussia.But,asitwasin2008,whenIworkedonthatcampaignwithPresidentObama,when
there'sabigeventinRussia...Backthen,itwastheRussian-Georgianwar.Thistime,itwillbeRussianinterventioninUkraine.ThereisagroupofvotersinAmericawhocarealotaboutRussian
policy.TherearepeopleofEastEuropeandescent:Latvians,Lithuanians,Poles.

Howmanypeoplearewetalkingabout?

Itdependsonwhichstate.RememberourElectoralCollegeiseverything.ButtheytendtobeconcentratedinwhatwecallswingstatesinstatesthatsometimesgoDemocraticandsometimesgo
Republican.So,Pennsylvania,Wisconsin,Michigan,Florida.Floridaisabigswingstate,andtherearetensofthousandsofPolish-AmericansinFlorida.

AndtheycareaboutRussia?

AndtheycarealotaboutRussia(inthewaysthatyouwouldguess).AndtherearelotsofUkrainian-AmericansinPennsylvania,forinstance.Forthosegroups,thisisgoingtobeanissuewhere
TrumpversusClintonisastarkcontrast,ifit'sthosetwo.Andthiscouldhaveaninfluenceontheelection.

SoRussiabecomesmoreofanissueinaracebetweenthesetwocandidates?

Correct.Butnotuntilthen.It'stooearlynow.
HillaryClintonandMichaelMcFaul.March2016.
Photo:CarolynKaster/AP/Scanpix

WhendiscussingRussiatodayintheUnitedStates,howpossibleisittoavoidtheterminologyoftheColdWar?Itseemsdangerouswhentwocountriescanonlytalkabouteach
otherasenemies...

Asyoumightimagine,IgivealotoftalksonRussia,alloverthecountry.Aboutonceeverytwoweeks,I'mgivingamajortalk.AndI'dsayacoupleofthings.One,there'sabiginterestinRussia.I'm
sometimesspeakingto800peopleinstateslikeMontana.EighthundredpeoplecametomytalkaboutRussiainMontana.IwasinnorthernFloridasixmonthsago.Ninehundredpeopleshowedup
foratalkonRussia.WhatImeantosayisthatthereisinterestinthistopic.

Thesewerejustregularpeoplewhocametolistentoyou?

Yes,justregularpeople.Notexperts.

IalsoworkforanewsagencycalledNBCNews,soIcantelltheebbandflowofthenewsinterestbywhentheyaskmetobeonTV.AndIwouldsaythatyourgeneralthesisisabsolutelyright.
There'saverysimplifiedstorythatgoesbacktotheColdWar.Mostpeoplefocusonitsoutcome,andwhenIgivemytalksI'veseenthis.

Butthere'sabiggerdebateaboutwho'satfault.AndIthinkyou'dbesurprisedespeciallyatuniversitycampusesthatthequestionismorecontestedamongelites,especiallyliberalelitesin
America.Andthat'sfine.Ihavemyownverystrongviewsonthat,personally.AndI'mactuallywritingabookaboutit,soIhavemyownargument.

ButthebiggestmessageIalwayshave,inallofmyspeechesandwhenI'monTV,aswell,istofightthestereotypesaboutRussiaandRussians.ThefirstthingIsayisthatyou'renotallowedinmy
classormylecturestosaythingslike,RussiathinksthisorRussiathinksweshould...I'venevermetMr.Russia.HaveyoumetMr.Russia?I'venevermetthatguy,oraMs.Russia.[Laughs.]

There'snooneviewinRussia.Theremaybemorepopularviews,butit'samuchmorecomplexsocietythanIwouldsaymoreAmericansandEuropeansunderstand.It'smuchmorenuanced.And
eventhewaytheregimeMr.Putinandhisregimedealswithsocietyismuchmorecomplex.[Justlookat]howtheydealwithyou[Meduza]!MostAmericansareshockedthatMeduzaexists.
Andthatyou'renotarrestedwhenyouflytoMoscow.

Yes,I'veheardthismanytimesfromAmericans.

Sothat'sinteresting,right?ThatmeansRussiaisnotexactlylikepeoplethinkitis.

AndwhatarethechancesofimprovingrelationsbetweenRussiaandtheUS?Itseemslikebothpresidentshavegivenupononeanother.

I'dsaythreethings.Theconflictsarereal.Andthey'renotjustbasedonpersonalitydifferencesbetweenPutinandObama,orsomethinglikethat.It'sbecauseit'saviewsharedbyeveryoneinthe
ObamaadministrationandmostAmericanforeignpolicyelitesthatRussiaannexedterritoryinUkraineandthenfomentedthisproxywar[intheDonbas],andthatviolatestherulesoftheinternational
system.

I'vemetlotsofRussianswhosay,Canwejustgetoverthis,andgetbacktodoingbusiness?Andthatfundamentalconflictwillnotgoawayanytimesoon,inmyopinion.

ThesecondthingI'dsayisthatI'veworkedwithPutin,I'vebeeninmanymeetingswithPutin,andhefundamentallythinksoftheUnitedStatesasacompetitorandanenemy.That'snotgoingto
change.He'shadthatviewforalongtime.Ifirstmethimin1991.

1991?Andhewassayingthesamething?

Well,Ididn'tknowhimaswellthen.Letmejustspeakabouthimaspresident.I'veseenhimtalkwithObamaabouttheseissues,andhe'sgotthatviewandthat'snotgoingtochange.

Imethimactuallythrough[formerSt.PetersburgMayorAnatoly]Sobchak.ItwasaprogramIwasdoingwithSobchak,andPutinwasinchargeofforeigncontactsforSobchak.

VladimirPutinandAnatolySobchakin1993.
Photo:MikhailRazuvaev/Kommersant
DoyourememberanythingaboutPutinspecificallyfromthisperiod?

Notmuch.Hedidn'tmakeabigimpression.Hisdeputymadeabiggerimpressiononme.IgorSechin.ImetSechinbackthen,too.Hewasveryfriendly.HewasoneofthefirstguysImetwho
openlytoldmethattheyworkedforSovietintelligencethiswasstillintheSovietUnion.(Thiswasin1991beforethecollapse.)Igottoknowhim[Sechin]prettywell.WebothspeakPortuguese.

YoutalkedinPortuguese?

Alittlebit.ButtherearetwomorethingsIwanttosay:oneisthatwecanagreetodisagreeononesetofissues,andcooperateinasmallerspaceonotherissues.AndIthinkthat'swhatObamais
doing.Andthat'swhatthenextpresidentshoulddo,butwithnoillusionsthatcooperationinSyriaisgoingtoleadtoanotherReset.Ithinkthat'snaive,andthat'snotgoingtohappen.Iwastheauthor
oftheReset.I'mtoblame.

Whyareyoutoblame?

Imeanthatmanycriticsblameme,sayingweweretheoneswhodidthis[attemptedtheReset],anditwasamistake.Idon'tagreewiththis.I'mwritingabookrightnowabouthowwewererightto
havedonewhatwedid.It'scalledTheReset.

ThelastthingI'llsayisthat,evenwhenthereisdisagreementabouttheseotherthings,wecannotisolateRussians.I'mnotsayingRussia[thecountry]I'msayingRussians[thepeople].Tome,that's
notgoodforourinterests.Idon'tthinkit'sgoodforRussia'sinterests,andsowehavetomakesurethatwetrytokeepbordersopen,keepuniversitiesopen,andkeepexchangesgoing...

Butisn'tthereadangerthatyouisolateRussianswhenyouisolateRussia?Technically,ourowngovernmentisisolatingus,butit'sinresponsetoRussia'sinternationalisolation.

AndweneedtomakesurethatRussiansunderstandthatit'stheirgovernmentdoingthat,notus.Ihavenoproblemwithyouatallcriticizingmypresident.Knockyourselfout.I'vehearditall.Iused
tobetheambassador,right?

Butwhatyoucan'tdoissay,BecauseyourpresidentwassuchanidiotonSyria,I'mnotgoingtogotoStanford.That'scrazy.It'scrazy.Justlikeforme,Iwasverycriticaloflotsofpoliciesthatthe
Putingovernmentdid,butIloveRussia.AndIloveRussians.Andyoucan'tmakemeouttobeanti-RussianjustbecauseofwhatIsaidaboutSyria.Andthat'sthethingthatIthinkwehavetofight
against.

ButdoyouthinktheUSgovernmentshouldworktoisolateRussiafromtheworld?TheRussiathat'sresponsibleforannexingCrimea?

Notisolate,butthereneedtobeconsequencesforbadbehavior.So,whenRussiaannexedCrimea,Ithinkitwas100percentrighttodosanctions.IfsanctionsareisolatingRussiangovernment
officials,welltheyshouldthinkaboutthatthenexttimetheythinkaboutannexingterritory.And,bytheway,theyare!Ithinksanctionshavebeenincrediblyeffective.Absolutely.

RegardingCrimea,theUShasstatedthatannexingpartofanothercountrywillresultinconsequences.ButMoscowrespondsthatRussiaisn'ttheonlystatethatchangestherules
here,andtheKremlinpoints,ofcourse,toIraqandAmerica'scampaignthere.ButtherewerenosanctionsagainsttheUSoritscoalition.HowshouldtheUnitedStateshandlethis
perceptioninRussia?

Iwouldsaytwothings.OneisthattheUnitedStatesactuallypaidaterriblepriceforinvadingIraq.ThousandsofAmericansdied,tensofthousandsofIraqisdied,wespentalotofmoneythere,and
weachievedverylittleresults.Andwealienatedlotsofouralliesduringthattime.Wereformaleconomicsanctionsputinplaceagainstus?No.Butdidwepayaterriblepriceforthat?Myansweris
yes.

ThesecondthingIwouldsayisthatwehavethisphraseinEnglish:twowrongsdon'tmakearight.Soifyoustealmybicycletoday,doesthatgivemearighttostealyourbicycletomorrow?That'sa
strangelogic.Right?IfyouthoughtIraqwaswrong,thenyoushouldthinkthesekindsofunilateralusesofforcearealsowrong.IfyouthinkKrymnash[Crimeaisours]wasright,thenyouhaveto
say,Oh,well,theIraqwarthatwasfine.Butpeopledon'tsaythat.Theysay,Okay,wellwhatabout....It'scalledwhataboutism.WellwhataboutIraq?WellwhataboutSyria?Whataboutthis
andwhataboutthat?

Mypointisthattwowrongsdon'tmakearight.IfyouwereforthewarinIraq,oryou'reforSyria,orforKosovo,andmoredirectlytoRussia(becausethoseanalogiesarealittlebitfalse,inmy
view)the[analogy]that'sclosesttoRussiaisifyouwereforChechenindependence.People[there]wantedindependence.IfyouwereforChechenindependence,thenIcanunderstandyour
enthusiasmforCrimeajoining.ButifyouwereagainstChechenindependence,eventhoughthemajorityofthepeoplewantedtoleave[theRussianFederation],youcan'tbeforannexation.That'sjust
logicallyinconsistent.

I'vespentagreatdealoftimelookingatPutin'sspeeches.Idoitforaliving,butImeanaboutCrimea[specifically].Idon'trememberaspeechbefore2014whereMr.Putinsaidit'sagreatinjustice
thatKhrushchevgaveawayCrimea,andWeneedthisback.AndIcan'trecallaspeechwherehesaid,DoyouknowthattheethnicRussiansinCrimeaarebeingdiscriminatedagainst?They're
beingkilled.It'sveryunstableandveryuncertainthere,andwehavetodefendthem.Ifsomebodyhadsaidthatbefore2014,thatwouldbealittlemoreinteresting.Butthefactthatit'sallsaid
afterwardssuggeststomethatthisisreallyaboutwhathappenedinMaidan,andnotaboutCrimea.

WhataboutRussiaafterPutin?It'shardtoimagineanyfutureRussianpresidentwhowouldgiveCrimeaback.Itwouldbepoliticalsuicide.SohowdoestheWestandtheUSdeal
withthenextRussianpresident,evenifhe'sdemocraticandmuchbetter?

Idon'tknowtheanswertothatquestion.

Butthisistherealityinfiveortenyears.

MypredictionisthatitwillbethepolicyoftheUnitedStates,whetherit'saDemocratorRepublicanpresident,fordecadestocome,toneverrecognizetheannexationofCrimea.Toholdontothe
falseillusionthatthat[position]mightchangewouldbemisguidedpolicy.

Atthesametime,Icanimagineascenariowhereprogressonotherfrontswouldleadto...iftherewereatrue,democratizingmomentinRussia,thatthatwouldbeembraced.WhatIworryaboutis
thatwewon'trecognizethosemomentsbecausethere'ssuchlittlefaithinAmericarightnowthattherecanbepositivechangeinRussiaatall.Iworryaboutthis.Iworryaboutisolationism.

Iworryaboutpeoplejustcheckingoutandjustthinkingthatthere'snothinggoodthatcanbedonethere.Let'sjuststopthinkingaboutRussia.That,tome,istherealtendencyrightnow.It'snot
confrontation.Sometimes,whenIspeaktoRussians,theythinkthatAmericansgetupeverymorningandallwedoisthinkaboutChtodelat'sRossiei?(WhatdowedowithRussia?)Thatwe
wonderwhatshouldwedotoweakenRussia?That'swhatIworryabout.Iworryaboutindifference.Iworryaboutpeoplenotcaring,thinkingRussiadoesn'tmatter.

Russiaisisolatingitself.Lookatittoday.WejusthadalmosteverymajorleaderontheplanetinWashington[forthefourthNuclearSecuritySummit].Putin'snotthere.Hedecidednottocome.I
worrythatpeoplewillbegintothinkaboutRussiaasnotbeingevenimportanttoengage.AndthatwouldbeatragedyforRussiaandatragedyfortheUnitedStates.

So,ontheonehand,wehaveRussiaignoringimportantinternationalmeetings,andontheotherhandwehaveSyria,whereMoscowhasmadeitabundantlyclearthatthiscampaign
waspartofbringingRussiabacktoglobalpolitics.Whytheparadox?

Ithinkthat'sthewrongwaytothinkofSyria.That'swhatthegovernmentsells,right?ButIhaveadifferentview.IthinkPutinhasbeenquitesuccessfulinhispolicyinSyria.Ithinkweshould
acknowledgethatthatheachievedhisobjective.AndhisobjectivewastostrengthenAssad,andhe'sdonethat.HisobjectivewasnottodefeatISIS,despitewhateverpropagandahasbeensaid.
It'sasclearasdaythatthatwasnothisobjective.MostoftheattackswerenotagainstISIStheywereagainstothergroupsthere.Butweshouldgivehimcreditthatheachievedhisobjective.
2016NuclearSecuritySummitinWashington,DC.
Photo:SeanKilpatrick/TheCanadianPress/PAImages/Scanpix

Butisn'tAssadfightingISIS,too?

IntermsoffightingISIS,theUnitedStatesandthecoalitionarefightingISISalotmorethanMr.Assad.Now,don'tgetmewrong:it'sveryrational.Ithinkit'sasmartpolicytosaynowthatAssad
needstobepartofthenegotiations,sowecanhaveacoalitiongovernmenttodealwithISIS.That's[Russia's]strategy.Butnobody(atleastamongthepeopleIknow,whoaredealingwiththe
Russians,andIknowmanypeople)isthinking,Oh!Isn'titgreatthatRussiaisnowagreatactorinthewar!It'smorelikeRussiaputaguntoourheadandthey'veachievedthisresult,andwehave
todealwiththem.

Soyou'renotcomingintotheinternationalcommunityonSyriaasarespectedpartnerPutiniscominginasanecessarypartner.It'sastrategy.Igetit.Youcanbeatoughguy.Bulliesgetalotof
attention.Toughguysgetalotofattention,butitdoesn'tmeanreintegration.Idon'tthinkanybodyhaschangedtheirviewsaboutMr.PutinasaresultofSyria.

SotheUS-ledcoalitionisactuallybombingISIS,butpartofthiscoalitionisTurkey,whichweknowhasbombedtheKurds.Erdoanisatoughguy,too.He'sabully,too.Sowhyis
hepartofAmerica'scoalition?

Erdoanisverycomplicated.You'reexactlyright.Ontheonehand,wehavesimilarobjectives.Youknow:theenemyofmyenemyismyfriend.Butonsomeveryparticularissues,wehaveradical
differenceswithMr.Erdoan.HejustsaidthatinhisspeechyesterdayinWashingtonabouthowwetotallydisagreeabouttheroleoftheKurdsinSyria.

AndTurkeyhasanopenborderwithISIS.

Butit'sanillustrationofmypoint:thebullythatisErdoanwehavetodealwithhimbecauseofthenatureofthecrisis.Butnobodyisrespectinghimforwhatheisdoing.HejustcametoWashington
andthepresidentoftheUnitedStatesdidn'tevenmeetwithhim.

You'vepointedoutthetensionbetweenhavingcommoninterestsbutmaybenotcommonvalues.Andthathappensalotindiplomacy.

RussiansoldiersatPalmyra,Syria.April2016.
Photo:ValerySharifulin/TASS/Scanpix

Soyou'velaidoutaverypragmaticpositionregardingTurkey.WiththeUSandothercountries,itseemstherearetwogeneralstrategies:thepolicyofpragmatism,whereyou
cooperatewithnationswhenit'sinyourcurrentinterests,andthepolicyofwe'respreadingdemocracythroughouttheworld.Howdoyoureconcilethesetwostrategies?

Iwouldsayafewthings.Firstofall,itistruethattheUnitedStates,overourhistory,fromtheverybeginning,hashadalliesthatareautocraticregimes.Ourfirstremember,goingallthewaybackto
thebeginningoftheAmericanRepublicourmostimportantallywasFrance,amonarchyandadictatorship.Theyarethereasonwhywe'refree.WithouttheFrench,wewouldhavelostthewar
againsttheBritish.And,justsoyouknow,ifyougobackandyoulookatthathistory,thentherewastheFrenchRevolution,andtherewasadebateinWashingtonaboutwhetherwesupportourallies
andourinterestsorthesepeoplewhowanteddemocracy.Sothetensiongoesallthewaybacktothebeginning.

ThesecondthingIwouldsayisthatourmostenduringallieshavealwaysbeendemocracies.IfyouthinkaboutAmerica'sclosestpartnersintheworld,they'redemocracies.Alloftheautocracieswith
whichwe'vehadalliancerelationshipshavealwaysbeentense.Andtheyonlybecomestablewhenthosecountriesmaketransitions.Throughoutourhistory.

Andthere'ssomethingI'vewrittenaboutcalledthefalsepromiseofautocraticstability,whichistosaythatautocraciescanbeouralliesbutthey'reneverourlong-termalliesbecauseautocracies
havetheproblemofremaininginpower.SoIranwasanincrediblycloseallyoftheUnitedStatesfordecadesundertheShah.Andthen,oneyear,theybecameourworstenemy.Thatonlyhappensin
autocracies.Itdoesn'thappenwithdemocraticalliances.

ThefourththingIwouldsayaboutthistensionyou'vehighlightedisthatit'sreal.There'snosolution.Ourcriticssay,Wellyouneedtobepure,onewayortheother.AndIwouldjustsaythat,[with]
alladministrations(Obama,Bush,Clinton,andallthewaybacktotheFrenchRevolution),thisisatensionbetweeninterestsandvalues.Thewaypresidentsresolveitistheysaywehaveshort-term
intereststhatwehavetopursue,andwealsoneedtopursueourlong-termvaluesourlong-terminterestinsupportingvalues.AndIagreewiththat.Ithinkthat'ssmart.WhatIthinkisnotsmartis
theuseofmilitaryforcetopromotedemocracy.Itjustdoesn'twork.Itneverhas.Andweshouldgetoutofthatbusiness.

IlyaKrasilshchik

PaloAlto,California
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Ru
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Likeitornot
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Photo:DmitryKostyukov/TheNewYorkTimes/ScanpixButIloveRussia,andIloveRussiansFormerUSAmbassadortoRussiaMichaelMcFaulspeakstoMeduza
19:25,15April2016Meduza

MichaelMcFaul,aformeradvisortoPresidentBarackObama,isconsideredoneofthechiefauthorsofthefamousResetattemptedinUS-Russianrelations.From2012to2014,McFaulwasthe
USambassadortoRussia.AfterleavingMoscow,heleftthediplomaticserviceandreturnedtoteachingpoliticalscienceatStanfordUniversity.AmbassadorMcFaulrecentlysatdownwith
Meduza'sIlyaKrasilshchiktodiscusstheconflictsthatdivideRussiaandtheUStoday,howthetwocountries'leadersshouldstructurerelations,andwhyAmericasuffersfromashortageofexperts
specializinginRussia.

Thepasttwoweeks,travelingbetweenuniversitiesintheUS,I'veheardroughlythesamethingeverywhere:there'sanenormousproblemwithAmericanspecialistsonRussia.The
leadingexpertsarethestill-livingSovietologistswhosuddenlyfindthemselvesneededagain.Doyoufindthistobethecase?

It'smorecomplexthanthat.There'sgoodandthere'sbad.Ontheonehand,inacademia,aftertheendoftheColdWar,therewasarenaissanceinthestudyofRussia,becauseforthefirsttimeever
youcouldstudyRussialikeanormalcountry.Youcouldgothere.Youcouldtalktopeople.Youcoulddosurveydataonpublicopinion.Youcouldwriteaboutelections.Iwrotemanyarticlesandone
bookaboutRussianelections,whereweusedthesamemethodsthatweusetostudyAmericanelections.

AndIwouldsaythatperiodwasagreatgrowthtimeforacademicsinterestedinRussia,andthat'smygeneration(peopleyoungerthantheCold-Wargeneration,butnotthenewgeneration
somewhereinbetween).

Butthentwoorthreethingshappenedthathavecreatedthisproblem,orthiscrisis[inthefieldofRussianstudies].Oneisthat,inAmericansocialsciences(economics,politicalscienceI'minthe
departmentofpoliticalsciencehere[atStanford]),there'satrendawayfromstudyingonecountry.SoifyoulookatthesuperstarsinpoliticalscienceinAmerica,they'renotspecialistsonRussiaor
ChinaorCanadaorFrancethey'respecialistsongeneraltrends:therelationshipbetweendemocracyanddevelopment,andsoon.Theyusestatisticaldatatocomparelotsofcountries.Atmy
departmenthereatStanford,too,thesescholarsarethestars.

That'swherethetrendsareforpoliticalscience:they'renotforpeoplethatknowindividualcountries,likeme.So,ifyoulookaroundthemajoruniversitiesinAmerica,you'llfindfewerandfewer
Russiaspecialists,andthatmeanswedon'tteachgraduatestudentsorMaster'sstudentsorundergraduatesaboutRussia.Weteachthemaboutmoregeneraltrends.Andthathasledtoafallingoffof
studentsespeciallyyoung,PhDstudentswhothenbecomeprofessorswhotrytokeepRussianstudiesalive.

Oneotherthingthathashappenedwhatisanothertrendisthatthere'sbeenanexplosionofthinktanksinWashington.YouprobablynoticedtheminWashington,right?

Yes,they'reeverywhere.

They'reeverywhere!

ThegoodnewsaboutthatisthattherearespecialistsonRussiawhocangetjobsinthosethinktanks,whocouldnevergetajobinauniversity.Thebadnews,inmyopinion,isthatthere'snotmuch
qualitycontrol.Anybodycansay,I'maRussiaspecialist,andthenappearonTV,andwriteablog.There'snodifferencebetweenaprofessoratHarvardandadirectorofathinktankinWashington
inthenoisethatistheexperts.

AndIknowmycolleaguesinacademia.Yousee,I'mveryrare.Igobackandforth.Therearen'tmanypeoplewhowereingovernmentandalsopoliticalscienceprofessors.Thereareveryfewofus
(likethreeorfourinthewholecountry).Ithinkthat'sledtoadeteriorationofanalysisofRussia.

Thegoodnewsisthatpeoplecanadapt,andinstitutescanadapt.Istartedaprogramon[Russia]recently,andjustlikethat[snapsfingers]wehadlotsofstudentinterestinthingsrelatedtoRussiaand
Europe.Ithinkit'sincumbentonpeoplelikemetohelpbringRussianstudiesbacktotheuniversity.BecauseImyselfhavenottaughtacourseonRussiafor15years.Ihaven'tevenbeenteaching
aboutRussiaI'vebeenteachingaboutdemocratization,USforeignpolicy,democracydevelopment,andruleoflaw.ThosearethecoursesI'vebeenteaching.I'vedecidedthatnextyearI'mgoingto
gobacktoteachingRussia.

Butyou'reinStanfordandallthesethinktanksareinWashington,DC.Andthey'retherebecausetheywanttoinfluencepolicy.

That'sright.

PresidentDmitryMedvedevduringhisvisittotheUSin2010.
Photo:DmitryAstakhov/TASS/Scanpix

I'vebeentoldthatnobodyintheUnitedStatesisterriblyinterestedingettinginvolvedwithRussia,butit'stheoppositewithChinaandtheMiddleEast.Therewillalwaysbe
businesstodowithChina,andtheMiddleEastwillalwaysbeamess.ButwhenitcomestoRussia,youcan'talwaysdobusiness,andit'snotawfulenoughallthetimetoguarantee
afuture,intermsofacareer.

Ithinkthat'strue.Tome,it'stragic.Tome,ifyougobackjustseveralyears,whentherewerenewopportunities,andtherewasapushtohavemorecontactwithRussia.PresidentMedvedevcameto
Stanford.Hespokeherein2010,andwasgreetedbythousandsofpeople.Hemetwithourstudents,anditfeltlikethiswasgoingtobesomething.TherewasSiliconValley,andtherewere
companiesinRussia.Lotsofactivity.

Andnowthere'slotsofuncertainty,intermsofcareerpaths.You'reright.AndsonowtheonlycareerpathwithguaranteedjobsecurityisintheUSgovernment,butthosejobsarenotinteresting,
unlessyougetinatthehighestlevels.AtaplacelikeStanford,andthisisoneofthemostprestigiousuniversitiesinthecountryrightnow,whywouldyoudoallthat,whenyoucanjustwalkdownthe
streetandgoworkforGoogle?Sowe'recompetingtogetthosepeopleinterestedinRussia-relatedjobs.It'saproblem.

ButrightnowtheprobleminUS-Russianrelationsisn'taboutwhathappensintheyearstocome,butwhathappensrightnow.DoestheUSgovernmenthaveaproblemtodayfinding
qualifiedareaexperts?

I'dsaytwothings:oneisthat,despitealltheproblems,inmyopinion(andI'maverybiasedpersonhereIworkedforsevenyearsforObama,twointhecampaignandfiveinthegovernment)...It
wasmyview,whenIwasinthegovernment,that,intheseniorpositionsdealingwithRussia,wehadtremendousexpertise.

OveratthePentagon,wehadCelesteWallander,whonowworksforthepresidentattheWhiteHouse.(She'saformerHarvardprofessor.)AttheStateDepartment,atmylevel,wehadalotof
strongpeople.WhenIworkedattheembassy,myseniorstaff(keywordsenior)werefirstrate.Mypoliticalofficer,forinstance,wasaguynamedHowardSolomon.(HeworksinLithuanianow.)
HeknowsmoreaboutRussiathananybodyintheUSknew20yearsagoor30yearsago.

Buthere'stheproblem:it'sthin,anditcaneasilychange.Andwe'vegotelectionscomingup.

Andwhatabouttheelections?WillUS-RussianrelationschangewithanewUSpresident?IsRussiaanissueatallintheUSpresidentialelection?

IsRussiaatheme?Atalowlevel,yes.Anditwillbecomeabiggertheme,ifit'sClintonversusTrump,becauseTrumphassaidsomevery...uniquethingsaboutUS-Russianrelations.Andhe'ssaid
someveryuniquethingsaboutourrelationshipwithouralliesinEuropethatwillcreateadebate.

He'ssaiduniquethingsaboutnearlyeverything,itseems...

Yes.I'mtryingtobediplomatic!I'madiplomat!

Infulldisclosure,IamaninformaladvisortoSecretaryClinton.She'sanotherofmyoldbosses.Wejusthostedher[atStanford]lastweek.IhaveaprettygoodsenseofherpositionsonRussiain
fact,averygoodsense.Bytheway,afterIintroducedher,shesaidthankyouandsoon,andthenImentionedsomethingaboutourlasttriptogether,whichwastoVladivostok.Andshesaid,making
everyonelaugh,WhathappensinVladivostok,staysinVladivostok.

BecauseofTrump'spositions,you'regoingtohaveadebateabouthowtodealwithPutin.You'regoingtohaveadebateabouttheNATOalliance.Andyou'regoingtohaveadebateaboutUkraine.
Traditionally,foreignpolicyisn'timportantatallinAmericanpolitics.Whenitis,it'susuallynotaboutRussia.But,asitwasin2008,whenIworkedonthatcampaignwithPresidentObama,when
there'sabigeventinRussia...Backthen,itwastheRussian-Georgianwar.Thistime,itwillbeRussianinterventioninUkraine.ThereisagroupofvotersinAmericawhocarealotaboutRussian
policy.TherearepeopleofEastEuropeandescent:Latvians,Lithuanians,Poles.

Howmanypeoplearewetalkingabout?

Itdependsonwhichstate.RememberourElectoralCollegeiseverything.ButtheytendtobeconcentratedinwhatwecallswingstatesinstatesthatsometimesgoDemocraticandsometimesgo
Republican.So,Pennsylvania,Wisconsin,Michigan,Florida.Floridaisabigswingstate,andtherearetensofthousandsofPolish-AmericansinFlorida.

AndtheycareaboutRussia?

AndtheycarealotaboutRussia(inthewaysthatyouwouldguess).AndtherearelotsofUkrainian-AmericansinPennsylvania,forinstance.Forthosegroups,thisisgoingtobeanissuewhere
TrumpversusClintonisastarkcontrast,ifit'sthosetwo.Andthiscouldhaveaninfluenceontheelection.

SoRussiabecomesmoreofanissueinaracebetweenthesetwocandidates?

Correct.Butnotuntilthen.It'stooearlynow.
 HillaryClintonandMichaelMcFaul.March2016.
Photo:CarolynKaster/AP/Scanpix

WhendiscussingRussiatodayintheUnitedStates,howpossibleisittoavoidtheterminologyoftheColdWar?Itseemsdangerouswhentwocountriescanonlytalkabouteach
otherasenemies...

Asyoumightimagine,IgivealotoftalksonRussia,alloverthecountry.Aboutonceeverytwoweeks,I'mgivingamajortalk.AndI'dsayacoupleofthings.One,there'sabiginterestinRussia.I'm
sometimesspeakingto800peopleinstateslikeMontana.EighthundredpeoplecametomytalkaboutRussiainMontana.IwasinnorthernFloridasixmonthsago.Ninehundredpeopleshowedup
foratalkonRussia.WhatImeantosayisthatthereisinterestinthistopic.

Thesewerejustregularpeoplewhocametolistentoyou?

Yes,justregularpeople.Notexperts.

IalsoworkforanewsagencycalledNBCNews,soIcantelltheebbandflowofthenewsinterestbywhentheyaskmetobeonTV.AndIwouldsaythatyourgeneralthesisisabsolutelyright.
There'saverysimplifiedstorythatgoesbacktotheColdWar.Mostpeoplefocusonitsoutcome,andwhenIgivemytalksI'veseenthis.

Butthere'sabiggerdebateaboutwho'satfault.AndIthinkyou'dbesurprisedespeciallyatuniversitycampusesthatthequestionismorecontestedamongelites,especiallyliberalelitesin
America.Andthat'sfine.Ihavemyownverystrongviewsonthat,personally.AndI'mactuallywritingabookaboutit,soIhavemyownargument.

ButthebiggestmessageIalwayshave,inallofmyspeechesandwhenI'monTV,aswell,istofightthestereotypesaboutRussiaandRussians.ThefirstthingIsayisthatyou'renotallowedinmy
classormylecturestosaythingslike,RussiathinksthisorRussiathinksweshould...I'venevermetMr.Russia.HaveyoumetMr.Russia?I'venevermetthatguy,oraMs.Russia.[Laughs.]

There'snooneviewinRussia.Theremaybemorepopularviews,butit'samuchmorecomplexsocietythanIwouldsaymoreAmericansandEuropeansunderstand.It'smuchmorenuanced.And
eventhewaytheregimeMr.Putinandhisregimedealswithsocietyismuchmorecomplex.[Justlookat]howtheydealwithyou[Meduza]!MostAmericansareshockedthatMeduzaexists.
Andthatyou'renotarrestedwhenyouflytoMoscow.

Yes,I'veheardthismanytimesfromAmericans.

Sothat'sinteresting,right?ThatmeansRussiaisnotexactlylikepeoplethinkitis.

AndwhatarethechancesofimprovingrelationsbetweenRussiaandtheUS?Itseemslikebothpresidentshavegivenupononeanother.

I'dsaythreethings.Theconflictsarereal.Andthey'renotjustbasedonpersonalitydifferencesbetweenPutinandObama,orsomethinglikethat.It'sbecauseit'saviewsharedbyeveryoneinthe
ObamaadministrationandmostAmericanforeignpolicyelitesthatRussiaannexedterritoryinUkraineandthenfomentedthisproxywar[intheDonbas],andthatviolatestherulesoftheinternational
system.

I'vemetlotsofRussianswhosay,Canwejustgetoverthis,andgetbacktodoingbusiness?Andthatfundamentalconflictwillnotgoawayanytimesoon,inmyopinion.

ThesecondthingI'dsayisthatI'veworkedwithPutin,I'vebeeninmanymeetingswithPutin,andhefundamentallythinksoftheUnitedStatesasacompetitorandanenemy.That'snotgoingto
change.He'shadthatviewforalongtime.Ifirstmethimin1991.

1991?Andhewassayingthesamething?

Well,Ididn'tknowhimaswellthen.Letmejustspeakabouthimaspresident.I'veseenhimtalkwithObamaabouttheseissues,andhe'sgotthatviewandthat'snotgoingtochange.

Imethimactuallythrough[formerSt.PetersburgMayorAnatoly]Sobchak.ItwasaprogramIwasdoingwithSobchak,andPutinwasinchargeofforeigncontactsforSobchak.

VladimirPutinandAnatolySobchakin1993.
 Photo:MikhailRazuvaev/Kommersant

DoyourememberanythingaboutPutinspecificallyfromthisperiod?

Notmuch.Hedidn'tmakeabigimpression.Hisdeputymadeabiggerimpressiononme.IgorSechin.ImetSechinbackthen,too.Hewasveryfriendly.HewasoneofthefirstguysImetwho
openlytoldmethattheyworkedforSovietintelligencethiswasstillintheSovietUnion.(Thiswasin1991beforethecollapse.)Igottoknowhim[Sechin]prettywell.WebothspeakPortuguese.

YoutalkedinPortuguese?

Alittlebit.ButtherearetwomorethingsIwanttosay:oneisthatwecanagreetodisagreeononesetofissues,andcooperateinasmallerspaceonotherissues.AndIthinkthat'swhatObamais
doing.Andthat'swhatthenextpresidentshoulddo,butwithnoillusionsthatcooperationinSyriaisgoingtoleadtoanotherReset.Ithinkthat'snaive,andthat'snotgoingtohappen.Iwastheauthor
oftheReset.I'mtoblame.

Whyareyoutoblame?

Imeanthatmanycriticsblameme,sayingweweretheoneswhodidthis[attemptedtheReset],anditwasamistake.Idon'tagreewiththis.I'mwritingabookrightnowabouthowwewererightto
havedonewhatwedid.It'scalledTheReset.

ThelastthingI'llsayisthat,evenwhenthereisdisagreementabouttheseotherthings,wecannotisolateRussians.I'mnotsayingRussia[thecountry]I'msayingRussians[thepeople].Tome,that's
notgoodforourinterests.Idon'tthinkit'sgoodforRussia'sinterests,andsowehavetomakesurethatwetrytokeepbordersopen,keepuniversitiesopen,andkeepexchangesgoing...

Butisn'tthereadangerthatyouisolateRussianswhenyouisolateRussia?Technically,ourowngovernmentisisolatingus,butit'sinresponsetoRussia'sinternationalisolation.

AndweneedtomakesurethatRussiansunderstandthatit'stheirgovernmentdoingthat,notus.Ihavenoproblemwithyouatallcriticizingmypresident.Knockyourselfout.I'vehearditall.Iused
tobetheambassador,right?

Butwhatyoucan'tdoissay,BecauseyourpresidentwassuchanidiotonSyria,I'mnotgoingtogotoStanford.That'scrazy.It'scrazy.Justlikeforme,Iwasverycriticaloflotsofpoliciesthatthe
Putingovernmentdid,butIloveRussia.AndIloveRussians.Andyoucan'tmakemeouttobeanti-RussianjustbecauseofwhatIsaidaboutSyria.Andthat'sthethingthatIthinkwehavetofight
against.

ButdoyouthinktheUSgovernmentshouldworktoisolateRussiafromtheworld?TheRussiathat'sresponsibleforannexingCrimea?

Notisolate,butthereneedtobeconsequencesforbadbehavior.So,whenRussiaannexedCrimea,Ithinkitwas100percentrighttodosanctions.IfsanctionsareisolatingRussiangovernment
officials,welltheyshouldthinkaboutthatthenexttimetheythinkaboutannexingterritory.And,bytheway,theyare!Ithinksanctionshavebeenincrediblyeffective.Absolutely.

RegardingCrimea,theUShasstatedthatannexingpartofanothercountrywillresultinconsequences.ButMoscowrespondsthatRussiaisn'ttheonlystatethatchangestherules
here,andtheKremlinpoints,ofcourse,toIraqandAmerica'scampaignthere.ButtherewerenosanctionsagainsttheUSoritscoalition.HowshouldtheUnitedStateshandlethis
perceptioninRussia?

Iwouldsaytwothings.OneisthattheUnitedStatesactuallypaidaterriblepriceforinvadingIraq.ThousandsofAmericansdied,tensofthousandsofIraqisdied,wespentalotofmoneythere,and
weachievedverylittleresults.Andwealienatedlotsofouralliesduringthattime.Wereformaleconomicsanctionsputinplaceagainstus?No.Butdidwepayaterriblepriceforthat?Myansweris
yes.

ThesecondthingIwouldsayisthatwehavethisphraseinEnglish:twowrongsdon'tmakearight.Soifyoustealmybicycletoday,doesthatgivemearighttostealyourbicycletomorrow?That'sa
strangelogic.Right?IfyouthoughtIraqwaswrong,thenyoushouldthinkthesekindsofunilateralusesofforcearealsowrong.IfyouthinkKrymnash[Crimeaisours]wasright,thenyouhaveto
say,Oh,well,theIraqwarthatwasfine.Butpeopledon'tsaythat.Theysay,Okay,wellwhatabout....It'scalledwhataboutism.WellwhataboutIraq?WellwhataboutSyria?Whataboutthis
andwhataboutthat?

Mypointisthattwowrongsdon'tmakearight.IfyouwereforthewarinIraq,oryou'reforSyria,orforKosovo,andmoredirectlytoRussia(becausethoseanalogiesarealittlebitfalse,inmy
view)the[analogy]that'sclosesttoRussiaisifyouwereforChechenindependence.People[there]wantedindependence.IfyouwereforChechenindependence,thenIcanunderstandyour
enthusiasmforCrimeajoining.ButifyouwereagainstChechenindependence,eventhoughthemajorityofthepeoplewantedtoleave[theRussianFederation],youcan'tbeforannexation.That'sjust
logicallyinconsistent.

I'vespentagreatdealoftimelookingatPutin'sspeeches.Idoitforaliving,butImeanaboutCrimea[specifically].Idon'trememberaspeechbefore2014whereMr.Putinsaidit'sagreatinjustice
thatKhrushchevgaveawayCrimea,andWeneedthisback.AndIcan'trecallaspeechwherehesaid,DoyouknowthattheethnicRussiansinCrimeaarebeingdiscriminatedagainst?They're
beingkilled.It'sveryunstableandveryuncertainthere,andwehavetodefendthem.Ifsomebodyhadsaidthatbefore2014,thatwouldbealittlemoreinteresting.Butthefactthatit'sallsaid
afterwardssuggeststomethatthisisreallyaboutwhathappenedinMaidan,andnotaboutCrimea.

WhataboutRussiaafterPutin?It'shardtoimagineanyfutureRussianpresidentwhowouldgiveCrimeaback.Itwouldbepoliticalsuicide.SohowdoestheWestandtheUSdeal
withthenextRussianpresident,evenifhe'sdemocraticandmuchbetter?

Idon'tknowtheanswertothatquestion.

Butthisistherealityinfiveortenyears.

MypredictionisthatitwillbethepolicyoftheUnitedStates,whetherit'saDemocratorRepublicanpresident,fordecadestocome,toneverrecognizetheannexationofCrimea.Toholdontothe
falseillusionthatthat[position]mightchangewouldbemisguidedpolicy.

Atthesametime,Icanimagineascenariowhereprogressonotherfrontswouldleadto...iftherewereatrue,democratizingmomentinRussia,thatthatwouldbeembraced.WhatIworryaboutis
thatwewon'trecognizethosemomentsbecausethere'ssuchlittlefaithinAmericarightnowthattherecanbepositivechangeinRussiaatall.Iworryaboutthis.Iworryaboutisolationism.

Iworryaboutpeoplejustcheckingoutandjustthinkingthatthere'snothinggoodthatcanbedonethere.Let'sjuststopthinkingaboutRussia.That,tome,istherealtendencyrightnow.It'snot
confrontation.Sometimes,whenIspeaktoRussians,theythinkthatAmericansgetupeverymorningandallwedoisthinkaboutChtodelat'sRossiei?(WhatdowedowithRussia?)Thatwe
wonderwhatshouldwedotoweakenRussia?That'swhatIworryabout.Iworryaboutindifference.Iworryaboutpeoplenotcaring,thinkingRussiadoesn'tmatter.

Russiaisisolatingitself.Lookatittoday.WejusthadalmosteverymajorleaderontheplanetinWashington[forthefourthNuclearSecuritySummit].Putin'snotthere.Hedecidednottocome.I
worrythatpeoplewillbegintothinkaboutRussiaasnotbeingevenimportanttoengage.AndthatwouldbeatragedyforRussiaandatragedyfortheUnitedStates.

So,ontheonehand,wehaveRussiaignoringimportantinternationalmeetings,andontheotherhandwehaveSyria,whereMoscowhasmadeitabundantlyclearthatthiscampaign
waspartofbringingRussiabacktoglobalpolitics.Whytheparadox?

Ithinkthat'sthewrongwaytothinkofSyria.That'swhatthegovernmentsells,right?ButIhaveadifferentview.IthinkPutinhasbeenquitesuccessfulinhispolicyinSyria.Ithinkweshould
acknowledgethatthatheachievedhisobjective.AndhisobjectivewastostrengthenAssad,andhe'sdonethat.HisobjectivewasnottodefeatISIS,despitewhateverpropagandahasbeensaid.
It'sasclearasdaythatthatwasnothisobjective.MostoftheattackswerenotagainstISIStheywereagainstothergroupsthere.Butweshouldgivehimcreditthatheachievedhisobjective.
 2016NuclearSecuritySummitinWashington,DC.
Photo:SeanKilpatrick/TheCanadianPress/PAImages/Scanpix

Butisn'tAssadfightingISIS,too?

IntermsoffightingISIS,theUnitedStatesandthecoalitionarefightingISISalotmorethanMr.Assad.Now,don'tgetmewrong:it'sveryrational.Ithinkit'sasmartpolicytosaynowthatAssad
needstobepartofthenegotiations,sowecanhaveacoalitiongovernmenttodealwithISIS.That's[Russia's]strategy.Butnobody(atleastamongthepeopleIknow,whoaredealingwiththe
Russians,andIknowmanypeople)isthinking,Oh!Isn'titgreatthatRussiaisnowagreatactorinthewar!It'smorelikeRussiaputaguntoourheadandthey'veachievedthisresult,andwehave
todealwiththem.

Soyou'renotcomingintotheinternationalcommunityonSyriaasarespectedpartnerPutiniscominginasanecessarypartner.It'sastrategy.Igetit.Youcanbeatoughguy.Bulliesgetalotof
attention.Toughguysgetalotofattention,butitdoesn'tmeanreintegration.Idon'tthinkanybodyhaschangedtheirviewsaboutMr.PutinasaresultofSyria.

SotheUS-ledcoalitionisactuallybombingISIS,butpartofthiscoalitionisTurkey,whichweknowhasbombedtheKurds.Erdoanisatoughguy,too.He'sabully,too.Sowhyis
hepartofAmerica'scoalition?

Erdoanisverycomplicated.You'reexactlyright.Ontheonehand,wehavesimilarobjectives.Youknow:theenemyofmyenemyismyfriend.Butonsomeveryparticularissues,wehaveradical
differenceswithMr.Erdoan.HejustsaidthatinhisspeechyesterdayinWashingtonabouthowwetotallydisagreeabouttheroleoftheKurdsinSyria.

AndTurkeyhasanopenborderwithISIS.

Butit'sanillustrationofmypoint:thebullythatisErdoanwehavetodealwithhimbecauseofthenatureofthecrisis.Butnobodyisrespectinghimforwhatheisdoing.HejustcametoWashington
andthepresidentoftheUnitedStatesdidn'tevenmeetwithhim.

You'vepointedoutthetensionbetweenhavingcommoninterestsbutmaybenotcommonvalues.Andthathappensalotindiplomacy.

RussiansoldiersatPalmyra,Syria.April2016.
Photo:ValerySharifulin/TASS/Scanpix

Soyou'velaidoutaverypragmaticpositionregardingTurkey.WiththeUSandothercountries,itseemstherearetwogeneralstrategies:thepolicyofpragmatism,whereyou
cooperatewithnationswhenit'sinyourcurrentinterests,andthepolicyofwe'respreadingdemocracythroughouttheworld.Howdoyoureconcilethesetwostrategies?

Iwouldsayafewthings.Firstofall,itistruethattheUnitedStates,overourhistory,fromtheverybeginning,hashadalliesthatareautocraticregimes.Ourfirstremember,goingallthewaybackto
thebeginningoftheAmericanRepublicourmostimportantallywasFrance,amonarchyandadictatorship.Theyarethereasonwhywe'refree.WithouttheFrench,wewouldhavelostthewar
againsttheBritish.And,justsoyouknow,ifyougobackandyoulookatthathistory,thentherewastheFrenchRevolution,andtherewasadebateinWashingtonaboutwhetherwesupportourallies
andourinterestsorthesepeoplewhowanteddemocracy.Sothetensiongoesallthewaybacktothebeginning.

ThesecondthingIwouldsayisthatourmostenduringallieshavealwaysbeendemocracies.IfyouthinkaboutAmerica'sclosestpartnersintheworld,they'redemocracies.Alloftheautocracieswith
whichwe'vehadalliancerelationshipshavealwaysbeentense.Andtheyonlybecomestablewhenthosecountriesmaketransitions.Throughoutourhistory.

Andthere'ssomethingI'vewrittenaboutcalledthefalsepromiseofautocraticstability,whichistosaythatautocraciescanbeouralliesbutthey'reneverourlong-termalliesbecauseautocracies
havetheproblemofremaininginpower.SoIranwasanincrediblycloseallyoftheUnitedStatesfordecadesundertheShah.Andthen,oneyear,theybecameourworstenemy.Thatonlyhappensin
autocracies.Itdoesn'thappenwithdemocraticalliances.

ThefourththingIwouldsayaboutthistensionyou'vehighlightedisthatit'sreal.There'snosolution.Ourcriticssay,Wellyouneedtobepure,onewayortheother.AndIwouldjustsaythat,[with]
alladministrations(Obama,Bush,Clinton,andallthewaybacktotheFrenchRevolution),thisisatensionbetweeninterestsandvalues.Thewaypresidentsresolveitistheysaywehaveshort-term
intereststhatwehavetopursue,andwealsoneedtopursueourlong-termvaluesourlong-terminterestinsupportingvalues.AndIagreewiththat.Ithinkthat'ssmart.WhatIthinkisnotsmartis
theuseofmilitaryforcetopromotedemocracy.Itjustdoesn'twork.Itneverhas.Andweshouldgetoutofthatbusiness.

IlyaKrasilshchik

PaloAlto,California
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