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From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.

edu>
Senttime: 07/08/201611:17:07AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: FW:"The'YAROVAYALAW'hasbeenputtoapopularvote,"vedomosti.ru,7/8

From:JohnBDunlop
Sent:Friday,July08,201611:17AM
To:howard@jamestown.org
Cc:paul.goble@gmail.com'waz2102@caa.columbia.edu'
Subject:"The'YAROVAYALAW'hasbeenputtoapopularvote,"vedomosti.ru,7/8

OnthesiteRussianPublicInitiative(ROI)therehasopenedavoteinfavorofrevokingthe
YarovayaLaw.

TRUNMPscampaignmanager[PaulMANAFORT]hauntedbypastbusiness[inYanukovychled
UKRAINE],kyivpost.com,7/8

ThestorybeginsinMarch2007,whenManafortandothermembersofhispoliticalteaminUkraine
setupaprivateequityfundwithRussianmoneyAccordingtocourtfilings,thecompanymanagedto
makeonlyoneinvestmentinanOdesatelecomcompany.However,the$19millionraisedforthe
purchasealongwith$7millioninmanagementfeeshassincedisappeared.Manafortdidnotreply
tomultiplerequestsforcommentmadethroughhisattorney.OtherManafortbusinessventures
discussed.

And:DonaldTRUMPaide[CarterPAGE]slamsAmericaspolicyonRussiaduringspeechinMoscow,
telegraph.co.uk,7/8

InanunusualcritiqueforamanattachedtoapresumptivenomineefortheAmericanpresidency,
CarterpagesaidtheUSandotherWesterncountriesunfairlyviligiedRussiaforitsproblems,including
corruptionMr.PagelamentedthattheWestunnecessarilyperpetuatedColdWartendenciesin
theirdealingwithRussiaAformeradvisortoGAZPROM,Russiasstategasbehmouth,mr.pagewas
invitedbytheNewEconomicSchooltogivealectureoneconomics.

From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 07/08/201609:02:14AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: FW:"OBAMAurgesNATOtostandFIRMagainstRussiadespiteBrexit,"reuters.com,7/8

From:JohnBDunlop
Sent:Friday,July08,20169:02AM
To:howard@jamestown.org
Cc:paul.goble@gmail.com'waz2102@caa.columbia.edu'
Subject:"OBAMAurgesNATOtostandFIRMagainstRussiadespiteBrexit,"reuters.com,7/8

And:NATOvowstoBOLSTERdefensesborderingRussia,rferl.org,7/8

And:WehaveTRILLIONS:howmuchwillRussianspayduetotheYAROVAYALAW[signedby
Putin],http://slong.ru/posts/70519

Slon.ruestimatesthatthenewlawwillcostRussiantelecomsandotherbusinessesandconsumersa
whopping$78billion[5trillionrubles]

And:Russianmobilephoneoperators:[New]antiterrorlegislationwillaffectWORLDCUP,
themoscowtimes.com,7/8

And:RussiaplanstoSUEEuropeanDevelopmentBank,themsocowtimes.com,7/8

RussiaintendstofilealawsuitagainsttheEuropeanBankforReconstructionandDevelopment
(EBRD)forfreezingitsoperationsinthecountry

And:TRUMPsFAVORITEGENERAL:MichaelFLYNNismorethanavaluedadviser[toTrump].Heis
alsoapotentialVP[!]candidate,politico.com,7/8

Sinceleavinggovernment,FlynnhasangeredUSofficialsoverhisfriendlyrelationswithRussiaHe
evenrecentlysatattheheadtableatadinnerinMoscowwithVladimirPutin,whomTrumphas
praised.

And:RussianstatecensorblocksfourpoliticalWEBSITESforcallingonvoterstoboycottupcoming
parliamentaryelections,meduza.io,7/8

And:EDROGANinsistsonsupportforUkraine,condemnsoppressionofCrimeanTatars,unian.info,
7/8

And:Review(positive)byKarenDAWISHAifArkadyOSTROVSKY,TheInventionofRussia,WallStreet
Journal,7/6,p.A9

[OstrovskyisformerMoscowcorrespondentfortheFinancialTimesandcurrentlyoftheEconomist.]

From: WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>
Senttime: 07/06/201603:52:04PM
To: WayneandStacyAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>
Subject: InternetNotes6July2016
Attachments: IN6July16.docx

InternetNotes6July2016

StanovayaontheregimesfivedilemmasoverBelykh

NobailforBelykh

NovayaGazetaonthesilovikywar(FSBvs.FSOMurov/MikhalchenkoThesilovikycadresshakeup)

Putincancelsallmeetingsforthenextweek

VladimirFrolovonPutinsNewdtente

StanovayaontheregimesfivedilemmasoverBelykh

http://slon.ru/posts/70141

ItsapparentthatthefundamentalrulesofthegamearechangingThedirectionvlastwilltakedependsonhowtheregimesolves
somedilemmas

#1:TheBlackcashboxaprivilegeorbusinessasusual?BelykhclaimsthatthemoneyhewaspickingupataMoscow
restaurantwasnotabribe,butoff-the-bookscashforregionaldevelopmentInRussia,suchablackcashbox,likebribery,is
inevitable.Thewholeverticalofpowerrunsoffsuchcash.Thequestionishowitisorganizedmoreexperiencedplayerssetup
charitablefundsthatbusinesscontributesto.Inothercases,thecashispassedalonginabag.Backin2007,journalistNatalia
MorarwroteaboutthePresidentialAdministrationpassingalongcashtopoliticalparties.Belykh,asaleaderoftheUnionofRight
Forces,hadtoknowaboutthat.Sotheregimeisfacedwiththequestionofwhetherblackcashboxesshouldcontinueifso,
thenwhohastherighttomakeuseofthem?Insteadofbusinessasusual,willtheybeaprivilegefewareentitledto?Itsclearthat
neitherPutinnortheSKhavethoughtthisthroughwhatshappeningnowisjustaconsequenceoftheregimeaimingtosurvive.
Butitsobviouswewillseemoresuchincidentsinthenexttwo-threeyears.

#2:Aretheliberalsafifthcolumnorapartnerofvlast?ThedifferencebetweenBelykhandgovernorswhowerearrestedearlier
KhoroshavinandGayzeristhatBelykhwaspartofabalancingelementamongtheokhranitelyandthesystemicliberals.
Belykhcametopowerin2009,atatimetheKremlinwasplayingagamewiththeurbanmiddleclass.Belykhsarrestisa
seriousblowtothattime(thetimeofSurkov)andeffortstoincorporatethepotentialnesoglasnikhintothesystem.Belykhwasa
linkbetweenamaturingBolotnayaandtheKremlin.Now,withpressureonallthosewholooktotheWest,allsuchlinksareno
longeroperative.ThesignificanceofBelykhsarrestisbeingunder-estimated.Thesilovikyarehopingtogoafterthosethey
considerpartofthefifthcolumn,andpeoplelikeSurkov,Kudrin,Gref,Chubays,Medvedevandhiscirclearevulnerable
(Comment:Iwascommentingonbalancingtheotherday,thinkingthatPutinsrecentmovestoboostZolotovand
apparentlyweakenotherpowerdepartmentsliketheFSBandtheMVDmightworktheoppositeofwhatheintended
preventinganypalacecoupslesstrustedsilovikymightgetinvolvedinduringaseriouscrisis.Ialsonotedthat
Putinhadattemptedsomemodestbalancingmeasures,likesendingtheFSKNandtheFMStotheMVDas
compensationforthelossoftheInternalTroops.AndIthoughtthatKudrinscomingbackintothepicturemighthave
beenabalancingstep(partlyone)meanttocalmdownthesystemicliberalsbutcampaigns,announcedornot,
haveamomentumoftheirown.IdoubttheimplicationsofarrestingBelykhwerethoughtthroughandweread
yesterdaythatPutinmaynothaveevenknownthatBelykhwouldbeingarrestedbeforehand(Stanovayatakesupthe
ideathatPutindoesnotgiveagoaheadoneachcasebelow.Hertakeseemsaboutrighttomespeakingofnot
givingagoaheadbeforehand,IdontbelievePutinapprovedtheNemtsovkilling,either).Theplayerstendtobe
reactive,lessthoughtfulchessplayersthanmostimagine.SoBelykhsarrest,whichcouldbeviewedasanaturalstep
inawaveofmeasurestoprotecttheregimefromanypossibleweaklinks,canbecomeaproblem.Wealsoread
(again)yesterdaythattheFSBUSBsFeoktistovwasinchargeoftheoperationaimedatBelykhandOrlovahas
claimedthatZolotovistheprotectorandunofficialoverseeroftheFSBUSBfromthe29Junenotes:[Comment:We
havereadelsewherethatZolotovsolddepartmentthePresidentialSecurityService,partoftheFSO,wasbeingusedbyPutinasacadres
reserve(see,forinstance,the2Junenotes)andIvearguedthatZolotovsrisemakessenseinviewofthecrisis,Putinssuspicions,elitefears,
andPutinsnarrowingclosecircle(Seemycommentsinyesterdaysnotes).Iftheauthorofthearticleabove,KarinaOrlova,iscorrectand
ZolotovisoverseerandprotectoroftheFSBUSB,thenitalsomakessensethatthedirectoratewouldbeusedtopurgeuntrustworthy(or
potentiallyuntrustworthy)figures(SeemytakeonBelykhsarrestinthe27Junenotes),andwouldgrowininfluenceandexpanditsterritory.
OneofoursourcesclaimedthatYakovlevwasaBortnikovprotginthatcase,ifZolotovreallyisthepowerbehindtheUSB,Yakovlevs
departurefromFSBSEBmakessenseinthecontextoftheFSBvsFSObattle(see,forinstance,the2Junenotes)andthetensionsfollowingthe
Nemtsovmurder.]).Itisthatpartoftheestablishmentthatisunderpressure.TheonlypersontheycanappealtoisPutin.The
Belykhexampleisatrumpcardinthegameagainsttheliberals.

#3Aregovernorselitesorordinaryexecutives?Inabitmorethanayear,threegovernorshavebeenarrested.Onceisan
exception,twiceatendency,thethirdtimearule.Wearewitnessingacriticallyimportanttransformationwithintheregime.The
governorsweremadepartofthevertical,thenbecameakeysupportgroupfortheregime,andnowareavulnerablepartofthe
system.Agovernorsposthasbecomepoliticallydangerous.Acriticaldelimitationbetweentheverytopofthesystem,withits
privilegesandimmunity,andtherestisbeingmade(Comment:Seemyremarksaboveonthenarrowingcircleoftrust).This
ishavinganimpactonnotonlythegovernors,butmembersofUnitedRussia,deputies,highly-placedofficials(includingdeputy
ministers),andtheheadsofmajorcompanies.Thecompetitionwithintheeliteforbenefitsisincreasing,whilethenumberof
availablebenefitsisdecreasing.

Questionis,iftheKremlinnolongervaluesthegovernors,thenhowcanitprovideforpoliticalcontrol?Upuntilnow,nomatter
whowasappointedgovernor,theKremlincouldbesureofloyalty,dependingonloyalpersons(whichmeantamemberofthe
systemicoppositioncouldbecomeagovernorComment:AnotherinterestingpointtoponderasInotedearlier,the
KremlinseffortstoassertpoweroverthesilovikyviatheNationalGuardandZolotovsrisecouldbackfire,producing
thekindofdisloyaltytheKremlinmayhavesuspectedwaslurkingamongthepowerdepartments.Thesamecould
betrueofthegovernorsnotnow,theywillbehunkeringdownandtryingtoprotectthemselves,butinaserious
political/social/economiccrisis).ThegovernorspostinrelationtotheKremlinisbecomingmoretechnical.
#4Thesilovikyaretheyaninstrumentoranindependentforce?ThepoliticalfieldinRussiahasbeenmonopolized.Thereal
powerstruggleisinanarrowcircleofpeopleclosetoPutin.Thepublicspherehasbeende-politicized,butanon-publicsortof
politicsisaliveontheperiphery.ThedomesticpoliticalsphereisgraduallybeingdividedbetweenthePresidentialAdministrations
domesticpoliticsdepartment(whichhandlespoliticaldecorations)andthesiloviky,whoaretakinguponthemselvestheroleof
scenarist.Soarethesilovikyindependentactorsoraninstrumentforperformingtasksassignedfromabove?
EkhoMoskvyChiefEditorAlekseyVenediktov,whoisalsoafriendofBelykhs,tellushowPutincouldhavesanctionedthe
arresthesimplysaidFollowthelaw,whichiswhathesupposedlysaidbeforethearrestofKhodorkovskiy.Butthesituation
haschangedin2003,Putinwasgoingafterhispoliticalenemies,nowhemoreoftenleavesituptothesilovikytomakeacall.
Anexclusiveprecedentin2003canbecomeroutinein2016ifthedemi-urgestaysoutofit.In2003,thesilovikytookon
precisiontasks.Todayitismorelikeaconveyorbelt.Lawenforcementisnowlookingovertheentirepoliticalclass.Theidea
thatthereisapacketofkompromatoneveryoneandonlythepresidentcangivethego-aheadonacaseislosingforce.Today,the
presidentdoesntgiveago-ahead,butstillhastheprivilegeofputtingthebrakeson,somethingthatcanhappenonlyisheisaware
ofwhatsgoingon.YoucantcallPutin?Thentheymaycomeforyou.

#5Themostinterestingquestionofallishowfarcanthesystemgoinprosecutingitsown?Whereistheborderbetweenthose
whohaveimmunityandthosewhodont?Areministersatriskofbeingarrested?Howdoesthesystemrecognizethosewhose
arrestwoulddestabilizethesystemitselforthosewhobyremainingfreethreatende-stabilization?Asthecircleofpotentialvictims
expands,thestatesrepressivestructuresgrowstrongerThetendencytorepressiongrows,asrepressionbecomeslessselective
andlawenforcementbecomesmoreexperiencedatpracticingrepression.Someseetheeconomiccrisisasgivingliberalizationa
chance,butitcouldhavetheoppositeeffectandintimetherepressivepowercouldgrowstrongerthanthoseconsideredthe
foundersofthesystem.

NobailforBelykh

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/russian-governor-held-on-corruption-charges-refused-bail/574422.html

AMoscowcourthasrefusedtobailKirovregiongovernorNikitaBelykh,whowasarrestedlastmonthoncorruptioncharges,theTASS
newsagencyreportedWednesday.

Belykhslawyershadappealedtothecourtforthepoliticiantobeplacedunderhousearrestorreleasedonbailof28millionrubles
($430,000),TASSreported.

Theinvestigationhasnogroundsforkeepinghimunderarrestbutthecourttooknonotice,saidVadimProkhorov,Belykhslawyer.
ProkhorovsaidthathisclientshealthwasdeterioratinginprisonandmaintainedthatBelykhwasnotabribe-taker.Healsotold
journaliststhatBelykhwaspreparedtogototheEuropeanCourtofHumanRightstoappealhisdetentionandtoclearhisname,TASS
reported.

BelykhhasbeenheldinpretrialdetentionsincehewasarrestedinaMoscowrestaurantlastmonthandchargedwithreceivingbribes
worth400thousandeuros($442thousand).Themoneywasallegedlymeanttoensurethegovernorpromotedtheinterestsoftwo
companiesintheKirovregion.

Belykh,aformeroppositionpartyleader,haspubliclysaidthatthecaseagainsthimwasnotpoliticallymotivated.Hemaintainshis
innocence,claimingthathereceivedthemoneylegallytospendonservicesfortheKirovregion.

AhostofliberalpoliticalfigureshavecomeoutinsupportofBelykhsincehisarrest,includingtheleaderoftheYablokoparty,Grigory
Yavlinsky,thechiefeditorofradiostationEkhoMoskvyandtheDumamemberDmitryGudkov.

BelykhisthethirdgovernorofaRussianregiontobearrestedoncorruptionchargesinthelasttwoyears.

NovayaGazetaonthesilovikywar(FSBvs.FSOMurov/MikhalchenkoThesilovikycadresshakeup)

http://www.novayagazeta.ru/inquests/73735.html

Ahighly-placedFSBofficertellsNovayathatBelykhsarrestexceededtheboundsofunderstoodauthorityusually,anymoves
involvingapersonappointedbythepresidenthavetobeclearedbythefirstperson,butinBelykhscaseeventheoperational
workbeforethearrestwasnotclearedaheadoftimewiththepresident.Informationwasgatheredunderthecoverofgathering
materialonNavalniy.ThesourcetellsNovayathatformonthsnow,aconflictbetweenFSBers,ledbySergeyIvanov,andFSO
peoplewhowereheadedformallyandinformallybynowex-FSOchiefYevgeniyMurov,hasbeenunderway.Thesourcesays
thatthecreationoftheNationalGuardwasavictoryfortheFSOsideoftheconflict.Itsnotthemobthatweareafraidof,says
thesource,buteachother(Comment:Shulmansaidsomethingsimilarbackinthe27Maynotes).Andthereisabasisfor
fearthemostseriousfunctiongrantedtotheNationalGuardistheoperational-investigativefunction.Theresnoguaranteethat
theNatsguardwillnotusethatfunctiontogoafterFSBpersonnelpostedtoministries,intheregions,andinmajorbanksand
enterprises.TheFSOalsopostsitscadresoutsideserviceeverygovernorsoffice,forexample,hasanFSOofficerkeeping
watch,maybeasheadofthegovernorsapparatus,ormaybeasanaideortakingoverthegovernorspost(Comment:Thats
areferencetoaformerFSOman,Dyumin,takingoverasTulagovernor).

FSOsourcesconfirmthattheFSBclantookthecreationoftheNatsguardhard.AtthesametimetheNatsguardwasbeing
created,therewassomelobbying(Comment:Whodidthelobbying?)tocreateanewMinistryofStateSecurity(MGB)that
wouldincludetheFSB,theFSO,andtheSVR.Murov,however,managedtodefendtheindependenceoftheFSO.Withoutthe
FSO,creatinganMGBdidntmakesense.ButthewheelswerealreadyturningoncreatingtheNatsguard.TheFSBclancould
notsitbyandwatchtheFSOgrowstronger,soablowagainstthemwasdeliveredon16MarchwhenDmitriyMikhalchenkowas
arrested.TheFSBknowsfullwellthatMurovwasMikhalchenkospatron.MurovalsosupposedlyintroducedMikhalchenkoto
Putin,recommendinghimasabusinessmanwhogenerouslysupportedthepresidentsinitiatives.Mikhalchenkowasactually
arrestedtwicethefirsttime,theofficerheadingtheoperationcalledMurovandMikhalchenkowassubsequentlyreleased.He
wasreprimandedfordoingsoandagainarrestedMikhalchenko.Afewdayslater,theFSBreportedtoPutinaboutthearrestand
theroleoftheFSOclaninMikhalchenkosbusinessschemes.Murovsfatewaspracticallydecidedonthatveryday.

AnotherFSBvictorywastheliquidationoftheFSKNViktorIvanovwasaheavyweightintheFSOclan.TheFSBthenmoved
togetridofFSO-connectedpeoplewithintheFSBapparatus,themostprominentonebeingtheheadofDirectorateKofFSB
EconomicSecurity(FSBSEB),ViktorVoronin(Comment:Therewasabitinthe9JunenotesthatclaimedVoroninwas
closetoViktorIvanov.IwonderedwhetherthefateofIvanovwashavinganimpactonpeopleconnectedtohimlike
LarisaKalanda).VoroninsdeparturewasfollowedbymuchtalkofmoreturnoveratFSB.Butcadreturnoverhasbeen
draggedoutsomesaythattheFSBclangrewnervousandmadeafatalmistakebyarrestingBelykh.BothFSBandFSO
sourcessaythattheKirovFSBoverplayeditshandandexceededitsunderstoodauthoritybymakingthearrest.Firstofall,
PutinwasnotinformedabouttheoperationalexperimentagainstBelykh.

ItcouldbethataftertheBelykharrest,anumberofchangesthatwereintheworksatFSBSEBwerehalted.IvanTkachevofthe
6thDirectorateofFSBInternalSecurity(FSBUSB)wassupposedtotakeoverasheadofDirectorateKatFSBSEB,butis
nowsupposedlyslatedforthe1s tdeputyspot.Thewordisthattheheadofthedirectoratewillbeitscurrent1s tdeputychief,
AndreyYegorov.Otherchangesthathavebeentalkedaboutwonthappen.

Comment:Alright,letsseeifwecanmakesomesenseofthisOntheMGBstory,letsbackuptothenotesfrom20
JunethematerialinthosenotesonforminganewMGBorMinistryforPublicSecurity(MOB)seemedtopointtoa
strengtheningofZolotovsposition,withtheNatsguardbeingusedtopurgetheoldpowerstructuresandscreen
officersforpositionsintheMGB.ThematerialfromNovayasaysthatMurovopposedtheMGBprojectandwasable
tosavehisFSO,whichundercuttheMBG/MOBplan.WeusuallythinkofMurovandZolotovasallies,butoneof
oursourceshadZolotovdriftingawayfromhisoldbossandsettingupshoponhisownasNationalGuardchief
(AlekseyMakarkinclaimedinthe2JunenotesthatMurovsdeparturewasavictoryforZolotovasMurovwas
replacedbyKochnev,amanfromtheservicethatZolotovhadheaded,thePresidentialSecurityService.Onereason
IvehadZolotovasabigwinner,bigenoughtoreallyupsetthebalanceamongthesiloviky,isthatsomeofour
sources,Makarkinwasone,havesaidthatPutinisntusingtheFSOasawholeforacadresreserve,hesusingthe
Zolotov-connectedPresidentialSecurityServiceforthat),somaybehesupportedtheMGB/MOBoperation.
Nevertheless,Murovisgonesowhatkindofcloutdoeshehavenowthatcouldpreventthemergergoingforward?
ItwouldmakesensethatiftheendgamewasaMGB/MOBstaffedwithpeoplescreenedbyZolotovthattheFSBand
Bortnikovwouldopposeit.WhileMurovsleavingmayatleasthavenotbeenopposedbyZolotov,maybethat
retirementandthedeep-sixingoftheMGB/MOBprojectwascompensationtotheFSBforthecreationofthe
Natsguard,whichpracticallyallofoursourceshaveseenasamovethatweakenstheFSB.Ofcourse,thatdoesnot
meanthatPutinisntinfavorofapurgeandvettingofthepowerstructures,aprocessthatmightbesupervisedby
Zolotov.Wellhavetowaitandseeaboutthat.IsuspectitwonthappenthatPutinwillholdback.Thereareplenty
ofotherswhomightopposesuchasuper-concentrationofpowerintheNatsguardandIvewrittenthatmovesmeant
topreventapalacecoupcouldbackfireifthereisaperceptionthatoneplayerisgettingtoostrong.

IvewrittenonMikhalchenkosarrestlikelybeingasignthatMurovwasweakened(Seethe21and31March
notes).Mikhalchenkoalsoturnedupinthe30Marchand26,27,and31Mayand7,9,and10Junenotes.Abitin
the9JunenotesfromKommersanthadVoroninasclosetoMikhalchenko(Andwesawaclaiminthosesamenotes
thatRomodanovskiyofthenow-defunctFMSwasaprotgofVIvanovaswell).Therewassomeconfusionabout
Mikhalchenkoskryshainthe9and10Junenotes,IwentoverapiececlaimingthatMikhalchenkowasinvolvedin
thekillingofRomanTsepovinSt.Petersburgbackin2004.Inthatscenario,Mikhalchenkowasconnectedtothe
FSB,whileTsepovwasclosetotheFSOpeople,especiallyZolotov,andthe(reportedly)ViktorIvanov-connected
Romodanovskiy,who,likeZolotov,attendedTsepovsfuneral.

BothTsepovandMikhalchenkohadawebofconnectionstovariouspowerdepartments.ButTsepovstieswere
strongestwithFSOpeople,apparently.Connectionschangeovertimeandoverlap.Upuntilearly2004,Bortnikov
wasinSt.PetersburgmaybeheandMikhalchenkoestablishedafirmrelationship,whileMikhalchnekoalsohad
somelinesouttotheFSOpeople.Couldbethatare-alignmentofkryshastookplacesometimeafterTsepovs
murderandMikhalchenkossteppingintotakeoverTsepovsnicheintheNorthernCapital.Anothercomplicating
factorasmentionedabove,RomodanovskiywenttoTsepovsfuneral.Butabitinthe9Junenotessaidhewasclose
toMikhalchenkoandcouldbeimplicatedinthecaseagainsthim.

OnTkachevheisfromtheFSBUSB.HewassupposedtotakeoveratFSBSEB(See,forinstance,the10June
notes).SeemycommentsaboveaboutOrlovastakeontheFSBUSBbeinginZolotovssphereofinfluence.
Yakovlev,whowassaidtobeaBortnikovprotg,wasreportedlyreplacedatFSBSEBbyInternalSecuritys
Korolev.DidKorolevinfactgetthejob?Abitinthe14Junenotesclaimedthathehadalreadytakenoverasheadof
FSBSEB.ThatsamebitsaidthatKorolevwasresponsibleforthecriminalcasethatcosttheFSBSEBsheadof
DirectorateK,ViktorVoronin,hispost,aswellasheadofFSBSEBYakovlevlosinghis.Morechangeswere
supposedlyontheway,butNovayaclaimstheywonthappen.Sothemaneuveringiscontinuing.

Putincancelsallmeetingsforthenextweek

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/putin-cancels-all-meetings-for-a-week/574433.html

RussianPresidentVladimirPutinhascancelledallplannedengagementsfortherestoftheweek,theRBCnewspaperreported
Wednesday,citingKremlinsources.

Thereasonsforthecancellationsisasyetunknown.KremlinspokespersonDmitryPeskovtoldjournaliststhatnoneofPutins
scheduledtripshadbeendecidedlyconfirmed.

AStateCouncilmeetinginAltaiwhichPutinhadbeenduetoattendwascancelledonTuesdayandhasnowbeenindefinitely
postponed.HisappearanceataneventinYakutiaonThursdaywasalsocancelled,RBCreported.

Iwouldntdramatizethesituation,saidEgorBorisov,PresidentoftheYakutiaRegion.Theheadofstatehasaschedulewhichcanbe
changed.

PutinhasnotattendedapubliceventsincehisofficialvisittoFinlandonFridayJuly1.

ItisnotthefirsttimethattheRussianleaderhasdisappearedfromthepubliceye.Putinalsocancelledallengagementsanddisappeared
frompublicviewfor11daysinMarchlastyear.

VladimirFrolovonPutinsNewdtente

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinion/article/a-modest-deal-vladimir-putin-s-new-d-tente-op-ed/574322.html
RussianPresidentVladimirPutinisindeconflictionmodewiththeWestafterawildrideoftwoandahalfyearsofmilitaryanddiplomatic
tensions.

InawiderangingpolicyspeechatabiannualmeetingofRussianambassadorsonJuly1,Putindidnotjustgothroughtheregularlitany
ofcomplaintsovertheWestignoringRussia'sinterests,NATOexpansion,U.S.unilateralism,missiledefenseandoverthrowingregimes
in"colorrevolutions."Heeschewedsaber-rattlingoverNATO'sdecisionstodeployadditionalforcesintheBaltics,calledWestern
countriespartnersincreatinga"broadanti-terroristfront,"andemphasizedRussia'sinterestin"closecooperationwiththeUnitedStates
oninternationalaffairs."

Onlytwoweeksbefore,attheSt.PetersburgInternationalEconomicForum,PutinsaidRussiaacceptedtheUnitedStatesasthe"only
superpower"andwantedtoworkwithit,providedtheUnitedStateskeptitsdemocracylecturestoitself.OnavisittoFinlandafewdays
ago,PutinagreedtoholdameetingoftheRussia-NATOCouncilafterNATO'sWarsawsummitthisweek,acceptedNATO'sproposal
forpreventingmilitaryairandseaincidentsandinstructedRussia'sdefenseministertoflyRussianmilitaryplanesovertheBalticSeawith
theirtransponderson.

Sinceearly2016,PutinandotherseniorRussianofficialshavebeensignalingMoscow'sinterestinde-escalatingtensionswiththeWest.
TheywanttonormalizerelationsMoscowviewsasgoingbacktopre-Crimea,bracketingitoutasRussiaandtheWestmanagedtodo
afterRussia's2008warwithGeorgia,withoutanyrollbackofRussianpoliciestoexertcontroloverUkraine.

MoscowhasbeentakingstockofitsforcefulpoliciestoreassertRussia'sstatusasaglobalpowerandtorollbacktheexpansion
ofWesterninstitutionsintotheformerSovietspacethatRussiaviewsasitsrightfulsphereofinfluence.Thesepoliciesofmanaged
confrontationwiththeWestoverUkraineandlaterSyriahavebeenwidelypopularwiththedomesticaudienceinRussiaover60
percentthinkRussia'sforeignpolicyissuccessfulandboostedPutin'sdomesticsupporttostratosphericlevels.

Yet,actualpolicyresultshavebeensomewhatunderwhelming.MoscowhasprovenitsabilitytowreckUkrainetopreventitfromjoining
Westernalliances.ButthecostshavebeenenormousbothintermsofWesterneconomicsanctions,diplomaticisolationandaruined
relationshipwithacloseneighbor.Yet,theWesthasrefusedtorecognizeRussia'ssphereofinfluenceandhasignoredcallstofleshout
anewYaltaagreementonthepost-ColdWarsettlement.Moscow'smilitarypositionwithregardtotheWesthasactuallydeterioratedas
NATObeganapplyingtheworst-caseassumptionstoMoscow'sirresponsiblesaber-rattlingandunpredictablebehaviorandbeganplanning
foradditionaltroopdeployments,araceMoscowcouldnotwin.ThepolicyofaggressivelydeterringtheUnitedStatesandNATOwas
fastapproachingapointofdiminishingreturns.

Russiahasweatheredthesanctions'impactanditseconomydidnotcollapse.Butthesanctionshavebeenlimitedanditbecameclearthat
amoreforcefulWesternresponse,likebansonexportstotheEUandthesuspensionofSWIFTtransactionscouldhaveresultedina
devastatingblowtoRussia'seconomy,whileapivottoAsiaprovedhardertoachieve.

Moscow'sdaringmilitaryinterventioninSyriain2015succeededinpiercingRussia'sisolationoverUkraineandwassomewhat
breathtakinglyhailedasthecountry'sascensiontotheeliteclubonaparwiththeUnitedStates,capableofdeployingmilitaryforceabroad
toaffectpoliticaloutcomes.RussiamayhaverescuedSyrianPresidentBasharAssad'sregimefromamilitarydefeat,butitsinvestment
ofbloodandtreasurehasboughtitonlymoreAssadandsomelimitedcooperationwiththeUnitedStates.Now,almostayearafterits
intervention,MoscowisstillstuckinSyriaandisonthevergeofowningitsmessofacivilwarIranissharinginthisinvestment.It
desperatelyneedsapoliticalexittodeclarevictoryandgohome,butthatcouldonlybeengineeredthroughcooperationwiththeUnited
States,Turkey(hencethelatestrapprochement)andSaudiArabia.

VladimirFrolovisapoliticalanalyst.

From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 07/07/201612:31:46PM
To: PeterReddaway<pbreddaway@gmail.com>
Cc: WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>
Subject: Re:InternetNotes6July2016

Iratheragreewiththis.Heispast70and.moretothepoint,theexposureandsubsequentarrestofMikhalchenko&otherswasa
signhewaslosinginfluence.IdontbuytheNovayapieceonthisscore.

Thatsaid,hehaslandedonhisfeet:

http://www.rbc.ru/rbcfreenews/577e3f409a794728a1ad54e6

OnJul7,2016,at11:22AM,PeterReddaway<pbreddaway@gmail.com>wrote:

T
hanks,Wayne,fortheilluminatingpieceonMikhalchenkoetalinyournotesofyesterday,
whichI'veonlyjustread.Muchofitisovermyhead,butonecommentthatmightbeusefulis
thatMurov'sinfluencemaynowbezero.Hemustbeabout70,andIcan'tthinkofanyfigures
underPutinwho'vemaintainedinfluenceatthatage.

Best,

Peter

OnWed,Jul6,2016at6:52PM,WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>wrote:

InternetNotes6July2016

StanovayaontheregimesfivedilemmasoverBelykh.1

NobailforBelykh.3

NovayaGazetaonthesilovikywar(FSBvs.FSOMurov/MikhalchenkoThesilovikycadresshakeup)4

Putincancelsallmeetingsforthenextweek.7

VladimirFrolovonPutinsNewdtente.7

StanovayaontheregimesfivedilemmasoverBelykh

http://slon.ru/posts/70141

ItsapparentthatthefundamentalrulesofthegamearechangingThedirectionvlastwilltakedependsonhowthe
regimesolvessomedilemmas
#1:TheBlackcashboxaprivilegeorbusinessasusual?Belykhclaimsthatthemoneyhewaspickingupata
Moscowrestaurantwasnotabribe,butoff-the-bookscashforregionaldevelopmentInRussia,suchablack
cashbox,likebribery,isinevitable.Thewholeverticalofpowerrunsoffsuchcash.Thequestionishowitis
organizedmoreexperiencedplayerssetupcharitablefundsthatbusinesscontributesto.Inothercases,thecash
ispassedalonginabag.Backin2007,journalistNataliaMorarwroteaboutthePresidentialAdministrationpassing
alongcashtopoliticalparties.Belykh,asaleaderoftheUnionofRightForces,hadtoknowaboutthat.Sothe
regimeisfacedwiththequestionofwhetherblackcashboxesshouldcontinueifso,thenwhohastherightto
makeuseofthem?Insteadofbusinessasusual,willtheybeaprivilegefewareentitledto?Itsclearthatneither
PutinnortheSKhavethoughtthisthroughwhatshappeningnowisjustaconsequenceoftheregimeaimingto
survive.Butitsobviouswewillseemoresuchincidentsinthenexttwo-threeyears.
#2:Aretheliberalsafifthcolumnorapartnerofvlast?ThedifferencebetweenBelykhandgovernorswhowere
arrestedearlierKhoroshavinandGayzeristhatBelykhwaspartofabalancingelementamongtheokhranitely
andthesystemicliberals.Belykhcametopowerin2009,atatimetheKremlinwasplayingagamewiththe
urbanmiddleclass.Belykhsarrestisaseriousblowtothattime(thetimeofSurkov)andeffortstoincorporate
thepotentialnesoglasnikhintothesystem.BelykhwasalinkbetweenamaturingBolotnayaandtheKremlin.
Now,withpressureonallthosewholooktotheWest,allsuchlinksarenolongeroperative.Thesignificanceof
Belykhsarrestisbeingunder-estimated.Thesilovikyarehopingtogoafterthosetheyconsiderpartofthefifth
column,andpeoplelikeSurkov,Kudrin,Gref,Chubays,Medvedevandhiscirclearevulnerable(Comment:I
wascommentingonbalancingtheotherday,thinkingthatPutinsrecentmovestoboostZolotovand
apparentlyweakenotherpowerdepartmentsliketheFSBandtheMVDmightworktheoppositeofwhat
heintendedpreventinganypalacecoupslesstrustedsilovikymightgetinvolvedinduringaserious
crisis.IalsonotedthatPutinhadattemptedsomemodestbalancingmeasures,likesendingtheFSKN
andtheFMStotheMVDascompensationforthelossoftheInternalTroops.AndIthoughtthat
Kudrinscomingbackintothepicturemighthavebeenabalancingstep(partlyone)meanttocalmdown
thesystemicliberalsbutcampaigns,announcedornot,haveamomentumoftheirown.Idoubtthe
implicationsofarrestingBelykhwerethoughtthroughandwereadyesterdaythatPutinmaynothave
evenknownthatBelykhwouldbeingarrestedbeforehand(StanovayatakesuptheideathatPutindoes
notgiveagoaheadoneachcasebelow.Hertakeseemsaboutrighttomespeakingofnotgivingago
aheadbeforehand,IdontbelievePutinapprovedtheNemtsovkilling,either).Theplayerstendtobe
reactive,lessthoughtfulchessplayersthanmostimagine.SoBelykhsarrest,whichcouldbeviewedas
anaturalstepinawaveofmeasurestoprotecttheregimefromanypossibleweaklinks,canbecomea
problem.Wealsoread(again)yesterdaythattheFSBUSBsFeoktistovwasinchargeoftheoperation
aimedatBelykhandOrlovahasclaimedthatZolotovistheprotectorandunofficialoverseerofthe
FSBUSBfromthe29Junenotes:[Comment:WehavereadelsewherethatZolotovsolddepartmentthePresidential
SecurityService,partoftheFSO,wasbeingusedbyPutinasacadresreserve(see,forinstance,the2Junenotes)andIve
arguedthatZolotovsrisemakessenseinviewofthecrisis,Putinssuspicions,elitefears,andPutinsnarrowingclosecircle
(Seemycommentsinyesterdaysnotes).Iftheauthorofthearticleabove,KarinaOrlova,iscorrectandZolotovisoverseerand
protectoroftheFSBUSB,thenitalsomakessensethatthedirectoratewouldbeusedtopurgeuntrustworthy(orpotentially
untrustworthy)figures(SeemytakeonBelykhsarrestinthe27Junenotes),andwouldgrowininfluenceandexpandits
territory.OneofoursourcesclaimedthatYakovlevwasaBortnikovprotginthatcase,ifZolotovreallyisthepowerbehind
theUSB,YakovlevsdeparturefromFSBSEBmakessenseinthecontextoftheFSBvsFSObattle(see,forinstance,the2June
notes)andthetensionsfollowingtheNemtsovmurder.]).Itisthatpartoftheestablishmentthatisunderpressure.The
onlypersontheycanappealtoisPutin.TheBelykhexampleisatrumpcardinthegameagainsttheliberals.

#3Aregovernorselitesorordinaryexecutives?Inabitmorethanayear,threegovernorshavebeenarrested.
Onceisanexception,twiceatendency,thethirdtimearule.Wearewitnessingacriticallyimportanttransformation
withintheregime.Thegovernorsweremadepartofthevertical,thenbecameakeysupportgroupfortheregime,
andnowareavulnerablepartofthesystem.Agovernorsposthasbecomepoliticallydangerous.Acritical
delimitationbetweentheverytopofthesystem,withitsprivilegesandimmunity,andtherestisbeingmade
(Comment:Seemyremarksaboveonthenarrowingcircleoftrust).Thisishavinganimpactonnotonlythe
governors,butmembersofUnitedRussia,deputies,highly-placedofficials(includingdeputyministers),andthe
headsofmajorcompanies.Thecompetitionwithintheeliteforbenefitsisincreasing,whilethenumberofavailable
benefitsisdecreasing.
Questionis,iftheKremlinnolongervaluesthegovernors,thenhowcanitprovideforpoliticalcontrol?Upuntil
now,nomatterwhowasappointedgovernor,theKremlincouldbesureofloyalty,dependingonloyalpersons
(whichmeantamemberofthesystemicoppositioncouldbecomeagovernorComment:Anotherinteresting
pointtoponderasInotedearlier,theKremlinseffortstoassertpoweroverthesilovikyviathe
NationalGuardandZolotovsrisecouldbackfire,producingthekindofdisloyaltytheKremlinmayhave
suspectedwaslurkingamongthepowerdepartments.Thesamecouldbetrueofthegovernorsnot
now,theywillbehunkeringdownandtryingtoprotectthemselves,butinaserious
political/social/economiccrisis).ThegovernorspostinrelationtotheKremlinisbecomingmoretechnical.

#4Thesilovikyaretheyaninstrumentoranindependentforce?ThepoliticalfieldinRussiahasbeen
monopolized.TherealpowerstruggleisinanarrowcircleofpeopleclosetoPutin.Thepublicspherehasbeende-
politicized,butanon-publicsortofpoliticsisaliveontheperiphery.Thedomesticpoliticalsphereisgraduallybeing
dividedbetweenthePresidentialAdministrationsdomesticpoliticsdepartment(whichhandlespolitical
decorations)andthesiloviky,whoaretakinguponthemselvestheroleofscenarist.Soarethesiloviky
independentactorsoraninstrumentforperformingtasksassignedfromabove?
EkhoMoskvyChiefEditorAlekseyVenediktov,whoisalsoafriendofBelykhs,tellushowPutincouldhave
sanctionedthearresthesimplysaidFollowthelaw,whichiswhathesupposedlysaidbeforethearrestof
Khodorkovskiy.Butthesituationhaschangedin2003,Putinwasgoingafterhispoliticalenemies,nowhemore
oftenleavesituptothesilovikytomakeacall.Anexclusiveprecedentin2003canbecomeroutinein2016ifthe
demi-urgestaysoutofit.In2003,thesilovikytookonprecisiontasks.Todayitismorelikeaconveyorbelt.
Lawenforcementisnowlookingovertheentirepoliticalclass.Theideathatthereisapacketofkompromaton
everyoneandonlythepresidentcangivethego-aheadonacaseislosingforce.Today,thepresidentdoesntgivea
go-ahead,butstillhastheprivilegeofputtingthebrakeson,somethingthatcanhappenonlyisheisawareofwhats
goingon.YoucantcallPutin?Thentheymaycomeforyou.
#5Themostinterestingquestionofallishowfarcanthesystemgoinprosecutingitsown?Whereistheborder
betweenthosewhohaveimmunityandthosewhodont?Areministersatriskofbeingarrested?Howdoesthe
systemrecognizethosewhosearrestwoulddestabilizethesystemitselforthosewhobyremainingfreethreatende-
stabilization?Asthecircleofpotentialvictimsexpands,thestatesrepressivestructuresgrowstrongerThe
tendencytorepressiongrows,asrepressionbecomeslessselectiveandlawenforcementbecomesmore
experiencedatpracticingrepression.Someseetheeconomiccrisisasgivingliberalizationachance,butitcould
havetheoppositeeffectandintimetherepressivepowercouldgrowstrongerthanthoseconsideredthefounders
ofthesystem.

NobailforBelykh

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/russian-governor-held-on-corruption-charges-refused-
bail/574422.html

AMoscowcourthasrefusedtobailKirovregiongovernorNikitaBelykh,whowasarrestedlastmonthoncorruption
charges,theTASSnewsagencyreportedWednesday.

Belykhslawyershadappealedtothecourtforthepoliticiantobeplacedunderhousearrestorreleasedonbailof28
millionrubles($430,000),TASSreported.

Theinvestigationhasnogroundsforkeepinghimunderarrestbutthecourttooknonotice,saidVadimProkhorov,
Belykhslawyer.ProkhorovsaidthathisclientshealthwasdeterioratinginprisonandmaintainedthatBelykhwasnota
bribe-taker.HealsotoldjournaliststhatBelykhwaspreparedtogototheEuropeanCourtofHumanRightstoappeal
hisdetentionandtoclearhisname,TASSreported.

BelykhhasbeenheldinpretrialdetentionsincehewasarrestedinaMoscowrestaurantlastmonthandchargedwith
receivingbribesworth400thousandeuros($442thousand).Themoneywasallegedlymeanttoensurethegovernor
promotedtheinterestsoftwocompaniesintheKirovregion.

Belykh,aformeroppositionpartyleader,haspubliclysaidthatthecaseagainsthimwasnotpoliticallymotivated.He
maintainshisinnocence,claimingthathereceivedthemoneylegallytospendonservicesfortheKirovregion.

AhostofliberalpoliticalfigureshavecomeoutinsupportofBelykhsincehisarrest,includingtheleaderoftheYabloko
party,GrigoryYavlinsky,thechiefeditorofradiostationEkhoMoskvyandtheDumamemberDmitryGudkov.

BelykhisthethirdgovernorofaRussianregiontobearrestedoncorruptionchargesinthelasttwoyears.

NovayaGazetaonthesilovikywar(FSBvs.FSOMurov/MikhalchenkoThesilovikycadresshakeup)

http://www.novayagazeta.ru/inquests/73735.html

Ahighly-placedFSBofficertellsNovayathatBelykhsarrestexceededtheboundsofunderstoodauthority
usually,anymovesinvolvingapersonappointedbythepresidenthavetobeclearedbythefirstperson,butin
Belykhscaseeventheoperationalworkbeforethearrestwasnotclearedaheadoftimewiththepresident.
InformationwasgatheredunderthecoverofgatheringmaterialonNavalniy.ThesourcetellsNovayathatfor
monthsnow,aconflictbetweenFSBers,ledbySergeyIvanov,andFSOpeoplewhowereheadedformallyand
informallybynowex-FSOchiefYevgeniyMurov,hasbeenunderway.Thesourcesaysthatthecreationofthe
NationalGuardwasavictoryfortheFSOsideoftheconflict.Itsnotthemobthatweareafraidof,saysthe
source,buteachother(Comment:Shulmansaidsomethingsimilarbackinthe27Maynotes).Andthereis
abasisforfearthemostseriousfunctiongrantedtotheNationalGuardistheoperational-investigativefunction.
TheresnoguaranteethattheNatsguardwillnotusethatfunctiontogoafterFSBpersonnelpostedtoministries,in
theregions,andinmajorbanksandenterprises.TheFSOalsopostsitscadresoutsideserviceeverygovernors
office,forexample,hasanFSOofficerkeepingwatch,maybeasheadofthegovernorsapparatus,ormaybeasan
aideortakingoverthegovernorspost(Comment:ThatsareferencetoaformerFSOman,Dyumin,
takingoverasTulagovernor).
FSOsourcesconfirmthattheFSBclantookthecreationoftheNatsguardhard.AtthesametimetheNatsguard
wasbeingcreated,therewassomelobbying(Comment:Whodidthelobbying?)tocreateanewMinistryof
StateSecurity(MGB)thatwouldincludetheFSB,theFSO,andtheSVR.Murov,however,managedtodefend
theindependenceoftheFSO.WithouttheFSO,creatinganMGBdidntmakesense.Butthewheelswerealready
turningoncreatingtheNatsguard.TheFSBclancouldnotsitbyandwatchtheFSOgrowstronger,soablow
againstthemwasdeliveredon16MarchwhenDmitriyMikhalchenkowasarrested.TheFSBknowsfullwellthat
MurovwasMikhalchenkospatron.MurovalsosupposedlyintroducedMikhalchenkotoPutin,recommendinghim
asabusinessmanwhogenerouslysupportedthepresidentsinitiatives.Mikhalchenkowasactuallyarrestedtwice
thefirsttime,theofficerheadingtheoperationcalledMurovandMikhalchenkowassubsequentlyreleased.Hewas
reprimandedfordoingsoandagainarrestedMikhalchenko.Afewdayslater,theFSBreportedtoPutinaboutthe
arrestandtheroleoftheFSOclaninMikhalchenkosbusinessschemes.Murovsfatewaspracticallydecidedon
thatveryday.
AnotherFSBvictorywastheliquidationoftheFSKNViktorIvanovwasaheavyweightintheFSOclan.The
FSBthenmovedtogetridofFSO-connectedpeoplewithintheFSBapparatus,themostprominentonebeingthe
headofDirectorateKofFSBEconomicSecurity(FSBSEB),ViktorVoronin(Comment:Therewasabitinthe
9JunenotesthatclaimedVoroninwasclosetoViktorIvanov.IwonderedwhetherthefateofIvanov
washavinganimpactonpeopleconnectedtohimlikeLarisaKalanda).Voroninsdeparturewasfollowed
bymuchtalkofmoreturnoveratFSB.ButcadreturnoverhasbeendraggedoutsomesaythattheFSBclan
grewnervousandmadeafatalmistakebyarrestingBelykh.BothFSBandFSOsourcessaythattheKirovFSB
overplayeditshandandexceededitsunderstoodauthoritybymakingthearrest.Firstofall,Putinwasnot
informedabouttheoperationalexperimentagainstBelykh.

ItcouldbethataftertheBelykharrest,anumberofchangesthatwereintheworksatFSBSEBwerehalted.Ivan
Tkachevofthe6thDirectorateofFSBInternalSecurity(FSBUSB)wassupposedtotakeoverasheadof
DirectorateKatFSBSEB,butisnowsupposedlyslatedforthe1s tdeputyspot.Thewordisthattheheadofthe
directoratewillbeitscurrent1s tdeputychief,AndreyYegorov.Otherchangesthathavebeentalkedaboutwont
happen.

Comment:Alright,letsseeifwecanmakesomesenseofthisOntheMGBstory,letsbackuptothe
notesfrom20JunethematerialinthosenotesonforminganewMGBorMinistryforPublicSecurity
(MOB)seemedtopointtoastrengtheningofZolotovsposition,withtheNatsguardbeingusedtopurge
theoldpowerstructuresandscreenofficersforpositionsintheMGB.ThematerialfromNovayasays
thatMurovopposedtheMGBprojectandwasabletosavehisFSO,whichundercuttheMBG/MOB
plan.WeusuallythinkofMurovandZolotovasallies,butoneofoursourceshadZolotovdriftingaway
fromhisoldbossandsettingupshoponhisownasNationalGuardchief(AlekseyMakarkinclaimedin
the2JunenotesthatMurovsdeparturewasavictoryforZolotovasMurovwasreplacedbyKochnev,a
manfromtheservicethatZolotovhadheaded,thePresidentialSecurityService.OnereasonIvehad
Zolotovasabigwinner,bigenoughtoreallyupsetthebalanceamongthesiloviky,isthatsomeofour
sources,Makarkinwasone,havesaidthatPutinisntusingtheFSOasawholeforacadresreserve,
hesusingtheZolotov-connectedPresidentialSecurityServiceforthat),somaybehesupportedthe
MGB/MOBoperation.

Nevertheless,Murovisgonesowhatkindofcloutdoeshehavenowthatcouldpreventthemerger
goingforward?ItwouldmakesensethatiftheendgamewasaMGB/MOBstaffedwithpeoplescreened
byZolotovthattheFSBandBortnikovwouldopposeit.WhileMurovsleavingmayatleasthavenot
beenopposedbyZolotov,maybethatretirementandthedeep-sixingoftheMGB/MOBprojectwas
compensationtotheFSBforthecreationoftheNatsguard,whichpracticallyallofoursourceshaveseen
asamovethatweakenstheFSB.Ofcourse,thatdoesnotmeanthatPutinisntinfavorofapurgeand
vettingofthepowerstructures,aprocessthatmightbesupervisedbyZolotov.Wellhavetowaitand
seeaboutthat.IsuspectitwonthappenthatPutinwillholdback.Thereareplentyofotherswho
mightopposesuchasuper-concentrationofpowerintheNatsguardandIvewrittenthatmovesmeantto
preventapalacecoupcouldbackfireifthereisaperceptionthatoneplayerisgettingtoostrong.

IvewrittenonMikhalchenkosarrestlikelybeingasignthatMurovwasweakened(Seethe21and31
Marchnotes).Mikhalchenkoalsoturnedupinthe30Marchand26,27,and31Mayand7,9,and10
Junenotes.Abitinthe9JunenotesfromKommersanthadVoroninasclosetoMikhalchenko(Andwe
sawaclaiminthosesamenotesthatRomodanovskiyofthenow-defunctFMSwasaprotgofVIvanov
aswell).TherewassomeconfusionaboutMikhalchenkoskryshainthe9and10Junenotes,Iwent
overapiececlaimingthatMikhalchenkowasinvolvedinthekillingofRomanTsepovinSt.Petersburg
backin2004.Inthatscenario,MikhalchenkowasconnectedtotheFSB,whileTsepovwasclosetothe
FSOpeople,especiallyZolotov,andthe(reportedly)ViktorIvanov-connectedRomodanovskiy,who,like
Zolotov,attendedTsepovsfuneral.
BothTsepovandMikhalchenkohadawebofconnectionstovariouspowerdepartments.But
TsepovstieswerestrongestwithFSOpeople,apparently.Connectionschangeovertimeandoverlap.
Upuntilearly2004,BortnikovwasinSt.PetersburgmaybeheandMikhalchenkoestablishedafirm
relationship,whileMikhalchnekoalsohadsomelinesouttotheFSOpeople.Couldbethatare-
alignmentofkryshastookplacesometimeafterTsepovsmurderandMikhalchenkossteppinginto
takeoverTsepovsnicheintheNorthernCapital.Anothercomplicatingfactorasmentionedabove,
RomodanovskiywenttoTsepovsfuneral.Butabitinthe9Junenotessaidhewascloseto
Mikhalchenkoandcouldbeimplicatedinthecaseagainsthim.

OnTkachevheisfromtheFSBUSB.HewassupposedtotakeoveratFSBSEB(See,forinstance,
the10Junenotes).SeemycommentsaboveaboutOrlovastakeontheFSBUSBbeinginZolotovs
sphereofinfluence.Yakovlev,whowassaidtobeaBortnikovprotg,wasreportedlyreplacedatFSB
SEBbyInternalSecuritysKorolev.DidKorolevinfactgetthejob?Abitinthe14Junenotesclaimed
thathehadalreadytakenoverasheadofFSBSEB.ThatsamebitsaidthatKorolevwasresponsible
forthecriminalcasethatcosttheFSBSEBsheadofDirectorateK,ViktorVoronin,hispost,aswellas
headofFSBSEBYakovlevlosinghis.Morechangesweresupposedlyontheway,butNovayaclaims
theywonthappen.Sothemaneuveringiscontinuing.

Putincancelsallmeetingsforthenextweek

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/putin-cancels-all-meetings-for-a-week/574433.html

RussianPresidentVladimirPutinhascancelledallplannedengagementsfortherestoftheweek,theRBCnewspaper
reportedWednesday,citingKremlinsources.

Thereasonsforthecancellationsisasyetunknown.KremlinspokespersonDmitryPeskovtoldjournaliststhatnoneof
Putinsscheduledtripshadbeendecidedlyconfirmed.

AStateCouncilmeetinginAltaiwhichPutinhadbeenduetoattendwascancelledonTuesdayandhasnowbeen
indefinitelypostponed.HisappearanceataneventinYakutiaonThursdaywasalsocancelled,RBCreported.

Iwouldntdramatizethesituation,saidEgorBorisov,PresidentoftheYakutiaRegion.Theheadofstatehasa
schedulewhichcanbechanged.

PutinhasnotattendedapubliceventsincehisofficialvisittoFinlandonFridayJuly1.

ItisnotthefirsttimethattheRussianleaderhasdisappearedfromthepubliceye.Putinalsocancelledallengagements
anddisappearedfrompublicviewfor11daysinMarchlastyear.

VladimirFrolovonPutinsNewdtente

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinion/article/a-modest-deal-vladimir-putin-s-new-d-tente-op-ed/574322.html

RussianPresidentVladimirPutinisindeconflictionmodewiththeWestafterawildrideoftwoandahalfyearsofmilitary
anddiplomatictensions.

InawiderangingpolicyspeechatabiannualmeetingofRussianambassadorsonJuly1,Putindidnotjustgothrough
theregularlitanyofcomplaintsovertheWestignoringRussia'sinterests,NATOexpansion,U.S.unilateralism,missile
defenseandoverthrowingregimesin"colorrevolutions."Heeschewedsaber-rattlingoverNATO'sdecisionstodeploy
additionalforcesintheBaltics,calledWesterncountriespartnersincreatinga"broadanti-terroristfront,"andemphasized
Russia'sinterestin"closecooperationwiththeUnitedStatesoninternationalaffairs."

Onlytwoweeksbefore,attheSt.PetersburgInternationalEconomicForum,PutinsaidRussiaacceptedtheUnitedStates
asthe"onlysuperpower"andwantedtoworkwithit,providedtheUnitedStateskeptitsdemocracylecturestoitself.
OnavisittoFinlandafewdaysago,PutinagreedtoholdameetingoftheRussia-NATOCouncilafterNATO'sWarsaw
summitthisweek,acceptedNATO'sproposalforpreventingmilitaryairandseaincidentsandinstructedRussia'sdefense
ministertoflyRussianmilitaryplanesovertheBalticSeawiththeirtransponderson.
Sinceearly2016,PutinandotherseniorRussianofficialshavebeensignalingMoscow'sinterestinde-escalatingtensions
withtheWest.TheywanttonormalizerelationsMoscowviewsasgoingbacktopre-Crimea,bracketingitoutasRussia
andtheWestmanagedtodoafterRussia's2008warwithGeorgia,withoutanyrollbackofRussianpoliciestoexert
controloverUkraine.

MoscowhasbeentakingstockofitsforcefulpoliciestoreassertRussia'sstatusasaglobalpowerandtorollback
theexpansionofWesterninstitutionsintotheformerSovietspacethatRussiaviewsasitsrightfulsphereofinfluence.
ThesepoliciesofmanagedconfrontationwiththeWestoverUkraineandlaterSyriahavebeenwidelypopularwith
thedomesticaudienceinRussiaover60percentthinkRussia'sforeignpolicyissuccessfulandboostedPutin's
domesticsupporttostratosphericlevels.

Yet,actualpolicyresultshavebeensomewhatunderwhelming.MoscowhasprovenitsabilitytowreckUkrainetoprevent
itfromjoiningWesternalliances.ButthecostshavebeenenormousbothintermsofWesterneconomicsanctions,
diplomaticisolationandaruinedrelationshipwithacloseneighbor.Yet,theWesthasrefusedtorecognizeRussia'ssphere
ofinfluenceandhasignoredcallstofleshoutanewYaltaagreementonthepost-ColdWarsettlement.Moscow'smilitary
positionwithregardtotheWesthasactuallydeterioratedasNATObeganapplyingtheworst-caseassumptions
toMoscow'sirresponsiblesaber-rattlingandunpredictablebehaviorandbeganplanningforadditionaltroopdeployments,
araceMoscowcouldnotwin.ThepolicyofaggressivelydeterringtheUnitedStatesandNATOwasfastapproaching
apointofdiminishingreturns.

Russiahasweatheredthesanctions'impactanditseconomydidnotcollapse.Butthesanctionshavebeenlimitedandit
becameclearthatamoreforcefulWesternresponse,likebansonexportstotheEUandthesuspensionofSWIFT
transactionscouldhaveresultedinadevastatingblowtoRussia'seconomy,whileapivottoAsiaprovedhardertoachieve.

Moscow'sdaringmilitaryinterventioninSyriain2015succeededinpiercingRussia'sisolationoverUkraineandwas
somewhatbreathtakinglyhailedasthecountry'sascensiontotheeliteclubonaparwiththeUnitedStates,capable
ofdeployingmilitaryforceabroadtoaffectpoliticaloutcomes.RussiamayhaverescuedSyrianPresidentBasharAssad's
regimefromamilitarydefeat,butitsinvestmentofbloodandtreasurehasboughtitonlymoreAssadandsomelimited
cooperationwiththeUnitedStates.Now,almostayearafteritsintervention,MoscowisstillstuckinSyriaandisonthe
vergeofowningitsmessofacivilwarIranissharinginthisinvestment.Itdesperatelyneedsapoliticalexittodeclare
victoryandgohome,butthatcouldonlybeengineeredthroughcooperationwiththeUnitedStates,Turkey(hence
thelatestrapprochement)andSaudiArabia.

VladimirFrolovisapoliticalanalyst.

From: WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>
Senttime: 07/06/201601:21:46PM
To: PeterReddaway<pbreddaway@gmail.com>RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: RE:InternetNotes5July2016

IllhavesomemoreonMikhalchenkoandFSBvsFSOintodaysnotes.

From:PeterReddaway[mailto:pbreddaway@gmail.com]
Sent:Wednesday,July06,201610:01AM
To:RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>;WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>
Subject:Re:InternetNotes5July2016

T
hisisagoodpoint,andremindsmethatIwasoftenstruckbyMikhalchenko's
remarkablespeedandaggressivenessinacquiring/seizingassets(andnodoubt
passingagoodpercentageofthevaluetoBortnikov).Thismusthaveprovoked
envyandangerinalotofFSBofficersinSPB.

OnWed,Jul6,2016at2:03AM,RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>wrote:

Ifthisisthecase,itsmoreinterestingthanyoumightthinkatfirstblushsinceitwastheFSBthatwentafterMikhalchenko.

OnJul5,2016,at6:38PM,PeterReddaway<pbreddaway@gmail.com>wrote:

W
ayne,

V.interestingaboutPutin'sapparentthreatstoBortnikov(p.3).Links
upwithwhatBobremindedmeabouttheotherday(andIforwardedto
you),namelythatBortnikovwas-forsomeyearsatleast-
Mikhalchenko'skrysha.SoM'sarrestwasprobablyonemorePutin
threattoBortnikov.

Best,

Peter

OnTue,Jul5,2016at6:27PM,WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>wrote:

InternetNotes5July2016

FSBraidonEkhoMoskvy(PiontkovskiyApalacecoupandatransitionalperiod:
Piontkovskiy/Khodorkovskiy/Illarionov).1

Piontkovskiyonsilovikyshakeups.3

SoloveysaystheKremlindoesntcareforBortnikov.3

SergeyKanevonBelykh.3

PutinappointstwoZolotovNationalGuarddeputies.4

PutingivesRolduginanaward..4

Whoistoblame?(Fortheeconomiccrisis).4

TheReserveFundwillrunoutin2017?.5

MoscowCityCourtreleasesDmitriyKamenshchikfromhousearrest.6

AmericancompanywillresumebusinessinCrimea.6

KlintsevichsaysSnowdencooperatedwithRussianintelligence.7

FSBraidonEkhoMoskvy(PiontkovskiyApalacecoupandatransitionalperiod:
Piontkovskiy/Khodorkovskiy/Illarionov)

http://www.newsru.com/russia/05jul2016/echo_print.html

AccordingtoEkhoChiefEditorAlekseyVenediktov,theraidtookplaceonTuesday.TheFSBwasafter
Ekhose-mailcorrespondencewithpublicistAndreyPiontkovskiy.SomeEkhoemployeeshavebeencalledin
forquestioningbytheFSBandMVD.EditorVitaliyRuvinskiywasquestionedaboutNavalniysblogatthe
MVDandonPiontkovskiysattheFSB.VenediktovhimselfisonatriptoGenevaAcriminalcasehasbeen
openedagainstPiontkovskiyforpubliccallsforactionsthatwouldviolatetheterritorialintegrityoftheRussian
Federation.

InJanuary,IrinaYarovayaoftheDumaSecurityCommitteesentarequestforareviewtotheProsecutors
officeconcerningaPiontkovskiyarticle(ABombAbouttoGoOff)thatwaspostedontheEkhowebsite.
Beforethat,asimilarrequesthadbeenmadebytheChairmanoftheChechenParliament,MagomedDaudov,
whoclaimedthatPiontkovskiywascallingforChechnyatobeseparatedfromtheRussianFederation.
PiontkovskiyleftRussiaon19FebruaryaftertheProsecutorsofficehaduncoveredwhatitsaidwasevidenceof
extremisminhiswriting.

TheBombarticleappearedon23January.ItcalledfortheseparationofChechnyafromRussia.Ekho
subsequentlydeletedthelasttwoparagraphsofthearticle.ThearticlesaidthatRussiahadlosttheChechenwar
andwasnowpayingoffGrozny,financingpalacesandgoldenpistolsfortheChechenleaders,while
unemployedyouthswentofftofightfortheIslamists.Piontkovskiyfurtherclaimedthatsilovikywhoare
unhappywithKadyrovmaystartathirdChechenwar.

Piontkovskiyslastcolumn,dated27June,wasaboutthearrestofKirovGovernorNikitaBelykh(Seethe
notesfrom27,28,and29June),whichPiontkovskiyattributedtoanunderthecarpetbattleamongKremlin
clans.TheinternalKremlinjunta,accordingtoPiontkovskiy,sensestheruinousstateoftheregimeandis
tryingtopreserveitswellbeingbypurgingpartner-competitorsinpreparationforatransitionalperiod.

AndreyIllarionovre-postedthePiontkovskiyBombarticle:

http://aillarionov.livejournal.com/894698.html

Asfarasthesiloviky,Kadyrov,andtheNemtsovmurder,PiontkovskiytoldKasparov.ru
(http://www.kasparov.ru/material.php?id=576E441AD5B89)thatPutincannotremoveKadyrovthatwould
beanacknowledgementthathispolicyintheCaucasushadcollapsed,bringingintoquestionthelegitimacyof
theregime(sinceitwasVVPsactionsonChechnyathathadhelpedbringhimtopower).Theregimeis
enteringaninevitablephaseofpossiblepalacecoups(followingthedefeatoftheRussianworldconcept
inUkraine)andPutinmaythrowabonetothesilovikyintheformofsomeoneclosetoKadyrovwhowas
implicatedintheNemtsovmurderNavalniyandKhodorkovskiyhavejoinedintheattacksonKadyrovand
havesaidthattheregimewillchangenotviaelections,butthroughaseriesofpalacecoups(Piontkovskiycalls
thesilovikyattacksonKadyrovasluggishon-goingcoup).PiontkovskiygoesonaboutKhodorkovskiytelling
Slon(http://slon.ru/posts/69549)thatajuntaof7-9wouldemergeafterapalacecoup,theleadersof
whichwouldhavearmedstructuresinthestreetsComment:KhodormaybealludingtoStrelkov,who,
likeKhodorkovskiyandNavalniy,hasalsosaidthatheandhissupportersarepreparingtostepin
aftertheregimecollapses(See,forinstance,the7Junenotes),thoughPiontkovskiyseemstothink
heisreferringtoBortnikovsandZolotovsandKadyrovsarmedformations.Moreon
KhodorkovskiyscommentsPiontkovskiysaysheagreeswithKhodorkovskiythatifthecoupdoesntatfirst
comeoff,thesilovikycouldturntoKhodororNavalniyforhelp.OneofthoseKhodorkovskiymentionedas
partofthetransitionalleadershipwasMedvedev.Comment:Khodorkovskiyhasbeensayingthisfora
while.IrecallBelkovskiy,whoIthinkworksforKhodorkovskiy,alsomentioningMedvedevasa
transitionalfigure.

IllarionovsummedupKhodorkovskiysprogram,his(Khodors)regimechangescenario,andlistedthosehe
(Illarionov)figuredmightbeontheroundtableoftransitionalleadersheadedbyMedvedevthatwas
mentionedbyKhodorkovskiy:http://www.kasparov.ru/material.php?id=576A2CFD907B7

PutinexitsMedvedevformsatransitionalgovernmentTheparliamentcouldbedissolvedSignificantsocial
forceswouldthenplace7-9orasmanyasfifteenpeopleonaroundtableintheplaceofparliamentThese
peoplewillhavearmedsupporterswillingtobackthemupActingasaConstitutionalConvention,theround
tablewillapprovechangestotheRussianConstitution,ineffectwritinganewoneThisnewconstitutionwillbe
anagreementamongthearmedformationsTheroundtablewillbesupportedbyaminority,buteven50,000
wouldbeenoughtoturnthecountryonitsheadIf500,000turnoutonthestreets,itistheywhowilldecide
thequestionofvlastinRussiaThevastmajoritywillnotbetakingpartintheroundtableatthatmoment,the
passivemajoritywonthavearoleTheiropinionswontmatteruntiltherearehonestelections.Untilthen,the
roundtablewillactasvlastMedvedevwillorganizenew,honestelectionsApartfromMedvedev,Kudrin
couldbepartofthetransitionalleadership,ascouldKhodorkovskiyandNavalniyThetransitionalleadership
wontbeadictatorship,itsanotherformofauthority

Illarionovnameshisversionofafifteen-personroundtableleadership(assumingPutinmakesanexit):
Khodorkovskiy,Medvedev,Kudrin,Navalniy,SergeyIvanov,Shoygu,Bortnikov,Kolokoltsev,Bastrykin,
Zolotov,Kadyrov,Sobyanin,Zyuganov,Zhirinovskiy,Strelkov.

Piontkovskiyonsilovikyshakeups

PutinwillgiveupanyoneforthesakeofKadyrov

http://mobile.twitter.com/apiontkovsky/status/740587590483640321

AndreiPiontkovsky@apiontkovsky

.,,,,.
-,,.

9:53AM-8Jun2016

Comment:PiontkovskiyalsosaysthatYuriYakovlevisBortnikovsman.Seethe30Junenotes,
whichmentionedaBortnikov-Yakovlevconnection.

SoloveysaystheKremlindoesntcareforBortnikov

Hisremarkisoneofthecommentsonthispost:http://m.vk.com/wall244477574_19214?post_add#post_add

SoloveywasreferringtoareportaboutanincidentinvolvingFSBAcademygraduatesracingtoMoscowin
threedozenMercedesGelandewagensandcausingallkindsofproblemsontheroads,withnumeroustraffic
violationstheFSBwasforcedtoopenanofficialinquiryabouttheincident.Soloveywassayingthatthe
KremlinwasalreadynothappywithBortnikov:http://m.ria.ru/incidents/20160704/1458402678.html

NovayaGazetaDeputyDirector(andformerFSBofficer)ValeriyShiryayevontheincident(Academy
GraduateshaveDestroyedtheirReputationsEvenbeforeBeginningtheirService):
http://www.novayagazeta.ru/columns/73696.html)Thereisvideoatthelink

SergeyKanevonBelykh

Backon10June,wereadthatOlegFeoktistovwouldtakeoveratFSBInternalSecurity(FSBUSB)afterhis
bossthere,SergeyKorolev,movedovertoheadFSBEconomicSecurity(FSBSEB),whileFSBUSBsIvan
TkachevwouldtakeoveratFSBSEBsDirectorateK.On14June,wesawanothermentionofFeoktistov
takingoveratFSBUSB.On28June,wesawareportthatFeoktistovhadheadedtheoperationtargeting
Belykh.FeoktistovalsoplayedaroleintheGUEBiPKscandal.See,forinstance,the14May2014notes.

NewTimesalsoreportsthatFeoktistovheadedtheoperationtargetingBelykh:
http://www.newtimes.ru/articles/detail/113672/

AttheLubyanka,FeoktistovisknownasBigOlegorGeneralFikus.Hehasforalongtimeaimedtotake
overasheadofhisdirectorate.TheBelykharrestisanadditionaltrumpcardinthedeckforhimBelykh,who
hasbeencriticizedbyPutinpreviously(Seethe28Junenotes),wasreputedlybreathingeasierwhenPutin,
speakingattheSt.PetersburgEconomicForum,declaredthatKirovOblastwasamongthosewhichwere
doingbetteronimprovingtheinvestmentclimateButBelykmayhavebeenmistakensourcessaythatthe
FSBhasbeeneyeingBelykhsince2012andPutinwaswellawareofthat.*OnthedayBelykhwasarrested,
PutinwasonatriptoChinaOneKanevsourcesaysthattheKirovregionalFSBhasbeenhostiletoBelykh
forsometimeashehadcutthemofffromlucrativesourcesofincomeAnotherstorymakingtheroundsin
KirovOblastisthatNikitaBelykhwasnottheprimarytargetthatwouldbehisbrotherAleksandr,who
resignedfromtheProsecutorsoffice(heheadedtheVolgaregionProsecutorsoffice)followinghisbrothers
arrest(Seethe29Junenotes).AleksandrwassaidtobeslatedforapositionasoneofChaykasdeputies
AnothersourceisconvincedthattheSeptemberelectionshavenothingtodowithBelykhsarresthehad
alreadyreachedagreementwithUnitedRussiaabouttheelectionsandBelykhwasapartofthesystem
*ButNovayaGazetasIrekMurtazinclaimsthatPutinwasinformedaboutBelykhsdetentiononlyafterthe
fact.PutinwasinBeijingandhadnotbeeninformedabouttheFSB/SKoperationalexperimenttargeting
Belykh:http://www.novayagazeta.ru/inquests/73675.html

PutinappointstwoZolotovNationalGuarddeputies

http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/3026102

ThetwoareLt.GeneralBorukayevandLt.GeneralSergeyYerygin.PutinalsoabolishedthepostofMVD
InternalTroopsCommanderTheMVDministerwillfromnowonhaveseven,noteight,deputies

PutingivesRolduginanaward

http://meduza.io/news/2016/07/04/putin-nagradil-roldugina-ordenom-za-bezuprechnuyu-gosudarstvennuyu-
sluzhbu

PutinawardedRolduginwiththeOrderofAleksandrNevskiyTheawardwasgivenbecauseofRoldugins
contributionstohumanitarianforeignpolicyactionsthathavestrengthenedfriendshipandpeacebetween
peoples

Whoistoblame?(Fortheeconomiccrisis)

http://slon.ru/posts/70181

ThearticledrawsonresearchdonebytheHigherEconomicsSchoolandLevadapollsEverythirdfamilywith
childrendoesnthavemoneyformedicineandhalfofthemareholdingbackonmeetingpaymentobligations
Realincomesarefallingandunemploymentisrising,asarepricesSlonlooksattheresultsoftheLevada
pollingforJuneonright/wrongdirectionandapprovalPutinremainspopularintheperiodfollowingthe
Crimeacampaign/annexation,hisapprovalratinghasnotdroppedbelow80%.Thedeclineoftherubleand
corruptionscandalshavenothurtPutinthepublicseemstothinkPutinwantstoimprovethingsforthepeople,
butisheldupbythebureaucracyandaweakteamMeanwhile,Medvedevsandthegovernmentsapproval
ratingshavedeclined:Medvedevshasdeclinedfrom73%in2008to51%todayandtheright/wrongdirection
numberstrackwithMedvedevsapprovalratingsovertime

Herearetheright/wrongdirection,approval/trustratingsfromthe30Junenotes(Comment:Putinstrust
ratingisdownsignificantlysincelastspring):

[http://www.levada.ru/2016/06/30/iyunskie-rejtingi-odobreniya-i-doveriya-6/

50%saythatthecountryismovingintherightdirection(49%lastmonth64%inJune2015)Wrongdirection33%(33%
18%)Hardtosay18%(18%14%)Putinsapprovalratingisat81%(80%lastmonth89%inJune,2015)Medvedevs
approvalratingisat51%(54%inMay),whilethegovernmentsis48%(49%)Approvalofgovernorsisat51%(55%inMay)
Dumaapprovalis41%(42%lastmonth)Name5-6politiciansorpublicfiguresyoutrustPutinin1stplaceat51%(60%in
March),followedbyShoygu(24%),Lavrov(17%),Medvedev(13%),Zhirinovskiy(13%),andZyuganov(11%)]

TheReserveFundwillrunoutin2017?

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/russias-reserve-fund-to-run-empty-in-2017/574344.html

RussiawillemptyitsReserveFundnextyearandwillstartdippingintotheNationalWelfareFund,theReutersnews
agencyreportedTuesday,citingdraftbudgetmaterials.

Amidbudgetdeficit,theFinanceMinistryisexpectedtoincreasedomesticborrowingfourorfivetimeswithinthree
years.
TheministryisnotplanningsignificantcutstoRussiasexpensesinanticipationoftheStateDumaandpresidential
elections,Reutersreported.Expenseswillbefixedat15.78trillionrubles($245.7billion)overthreeyears.

Russiawillfillholesinitsbudgetcausedbyaconsistentdeclineingrossdomesticproductusingfundsandloans.
Bytheendof2016,therewillbe980billionrubles($15.27billion)leftintheReserveFund,oneofitstwosovereign
funds.Thisfundwillbeemptiedatsomepointin2017,accordingtoministrymaterials.

TheFinanceMinistrysaysthatRussiawouldspend783billionrubles($12.13billion)fromtheNationalWelfareFund
in2017and883billionrubles($13.68billion)in2018,Reutersreported.

TheNationalWelfareFund,whichheld$73billionatthestartofJuly,wasformedin2008whentheStabilization
FundwassplitintotheReserveFundandtheNationalWelfareFund.Aboutone-thirdoftheNationalWelfareFundis
investedinRussianstatedevelopmentbankVneshekonombank(VEB)andotherprojects.

MoscowCityCourtreleasesDmitriyKamenshchikfromhousearrest

Thereleaseorderwasmadeon1JulySeethe19Mayand3Junenotes.

http://crimerussia.com/en/gromkie-dela/the-moscow-city-court-discharged-dmitry-kamenshchik/

ThePresidiumoftheMoscowCityCourtallowedaremedialactionorderbythefirstdeputyprosecutor-
generalVladimirMalinovsky,whodemandedthereleaseoftheownerofDomodedovoairportDmitry
Kamenshchikfromhousearrest.AccordingtoRBK,hecanremoveanelectronicanklebraceletassoon
astheFederalPenitentiaryServiceofRussiareceivesallthenecessarydocuments.

TheProsecutorGeneral'sOfficehasseveraltimesdemandedcriminalchargesagainsttopmanagers
oftheairportbedroppedHowever,theInvestigativeCommitteeoftheRussianFederationoverturned
theremedialactionorderoftheprocuracyandcontinuedtheinvestigation

AmericancompanywillresumebusinessinCrimea

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/first-american-company-to-return-to-crimea-since-
russia-sanctions/574325.html

TheCourseraonlineeducationalservicehasreceivedpermissionfromtheU.S.governmenttooperateinCrimea,the
KommersantnewspaperreportedonTuesday.

Courseratheworld'slargestonlinelearningplatformhasbeenunavailabletoresidentsoftheannexed
peninsulasinceFeb.1,2015inconnectionwithsanctionsplacedonRussiabytheU.S.

Manymembersoftheeducationalcommunitywereopposedtothis,sayingthateducationshouldbeavailableto
peoplearoundtheworld.

IdonotknowasingleAmericanprofessorwhosupportedtheserestrictions[onaccessingCoursera]inCrimea,
saidIsaacFruminfromtheHigherSchoolofEconomics,Kommersantreported.

InesRoman,aspokespersonforCoursera,statedinJunethattheU.S.OfficeofForeignAssetsControlgavethe
websiteaspeciallicensetoworkinCrimea.

Wethinkitisveryimportantthattheopportunitytoreceiveabettereducationisavailabletoeveryone,whereverthey
live,saidthespokesperson.

KlintsevichsaysSnowdencooperatedwithRussianintelligence

http://20committee.com/2016/07/02/the-kremlin-admits-snowden-is-a-russian-agent/

Now,theKremlinhassettledtheissueonceandforallbystatingthatEdwardSnowdenisindeedtheirman.In
aremarkableinterviewthisweek,FranzKlintsevich,aseniorRussiansecurityofficial,explainedthecasematter-of-factly:
Letsbefrank.Snowdendidshareintelligence.Thisiswhatsecurityservicesdo.Iftheresapossibilitytogetinformation,
theywillgetit.

Withthis,KlintsevichsimplysaidwhatallintelligenceprofessionalsalreadyknewthatSnowdenisacollaboratorwiththe
FSB.ThathereallyhadnochoiceinthematteroncehesetfootinRussiadoesnotchangethefacts.

Klintsevichisnoidlespeculator.HeisasenatorwhohasservedintheStateDumafornearlyadecade.Moreimportantly,heis
thedeputychairofthesenatesdefenseandsecuritycommittee,whichoverseesthespecialservices.The59-year-old
KlintsevichthushasaccesstomanystatesecretsforinstanceregardingtheSnowdencase.

HeisalsoaretiredRussianarmycolonel,havingserved22yearsintheeliteAirborneForces(VDV).Klintsevichsawactionin
Afghanistaninthe1980swiththeVDVand,basedonacarefulreadingofhisbiography,appearstohaveservedwithGRU,
thatismilitaryintelligence(hisworkinspecialpropagandainAfghanistanandhis1991graduationfromtheLeninMilitary-
PoliticalAcademyareindicationsofhisGRUaffiliation).

Klintsevichisnotawell-knownfigureoutsideRussiaheappearedintheWesternpressbrieflyin2012withhisshort-lived
ideatobuyHitlersbirthhouseinBraunau,inordertodestroyitbutheisawell-connectedmemberoftheKremlinsruling
elite.GivenhissenatecommitteepositionandhisGRUpast,thereisnodoubtthatKlintsevichisconsiderednash(ours)by
Russiasspecialservices.

HisstatementoutingSnowdensrelationshipwiththeKremlinthereforecannotbeanaccidentoraslipofthetongue.For
whateverreason,PutinhasdecidedtooutSnowdenasthecollaboratorthatheactuallyisandhasbeenforthreeyears
already.

OnereasonforthismaybeSnowdensrecenttepidcriticismviaTwitterofRussiasdraconiannewlawsondomestic
surveillancewhichvastlyexceedanyoftheactivitiesoftheWesterndemocraciesthatSnowdenhassostronglycriticized
fromhisFSBhideaway.Indeed,hishostsfinallyallowingtheirAmericancollaboratortotweetnegativelyaboutRussiamany
hadnotedSnowdenssilenceonFSBrepressionandworsemaybeasignthatthedefectorhasoutlivedhisusefulness.

Intruth,SnowdenwasneverallthatwellinformedaboutAmericanintelligence.Contrarytothemythsthatheandhis
mouthpieceshavepropagated,hewasnomorethananITsystemsadministrator.Snowdenwasneveranysortofbonafide
spy.TherearenoindicationshereallyunderstandsmostofwhathestolefromNSA.

TheFSBthereforemilkedSnowdenofanyvaluableinformationratherquickly.Helikelyhadlittlelighttoshedonthemillion-
plussecretfileshestole.Instead,hisvaluetoMoscowhasbeenasakeyplayerinKremlinpropagandadesignedtodiscredit
theWesternintelligencealliance.

Inthatrole,SnowdenhasdoneagreatdealofdamagetotheWest.ButhewasneveramoleforMoscowinsideNSA.In
reality,theSnowdenOperationisprobablyacovertodeflectattentionfromtheoneormoreactualRussianmoleswhohave
beenlurkinginsideNSAforyears,undetected.

BasedonthecasesofpreviousWesternintelligencedefectorstoMoscow,EdwardSnowdenfacesanunhappyfuture.
Whateverhappenstohimisuptohishosts,whocontrolallaspectsofanydefectorslife.Therenolongercanbeanyhonest
debateabouthisrelationshipwiththeKremlin,whichhassettledthematteronceandforall.Putinandhisspecialservices
considerSnowdentobenashthereisnoquestionaboutthatnow.

(ThisarticleoriginallyappearedinBILDinGerman,youcanreadthathere.)

Novirusfoundinthismessage.
CheckedbyAVG-www.avg.com
Version:2016.0.7640/VirusDatabase:4613/12565-ReleaseDate:07/05/16
From: PeterReddaway<pbreddaway@gmail.com>
Senttime: 07/07/201608:22:19AM
To: WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>
Cc: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: Re:InternetNotes6July2016

T
hanks,Wayne,fortheilluminatingpieceonMikhalchenkoetalinyournotesofyesterday,whichI'veonly
justread.Muchofitisovermyhead,butonecommentthatmightbeusefulisthatMurov'sinfluencemay
nowbezero.Hemustbeabout70,andIcan'tthinkofanyfiguresunderPutinwho'vemaintainedinfluence
atthatage.

Best,

Peter

OnWed,Jul6,2016at6:52PM,WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>wrote:

InternetNotes6July2016

StanovayaontheregimesfivedilemmasoverBelykh.1

NobailforBelykh.3

NovayaGazetaonthesilovikywar(FSBvs.FSOMurov/MikhalchenkoThesilovikycadresshakeup)4

Putincancelsallmeetingsforthenextweek.7

VladimirFrolovonPutinsNewdtente.7

StanovayaontheregimesfivedilemmasoverBelykh

http://slon.ru/posts/70141

ItsapparentthatthefundamentalrulesofthegamearechangingThedirectionvlastwilltakedependsonhowtheregime
solvessomedilemmas

#1:TheBlackcashboxaprivilegeorbusinessasusual?BelykhclaimsthatthemoneyhewaspickingupataMoscow
restaurantwasnotabribe,butoff-the-bookscashforregionaldevelopmentInRussia,suchablackcashbox,likebribery,is
inevitable.Thewholeverticalofpowerrunsoffsuchcash.Thequestionishowitisorganizedmoreexperiencedplayersset
upcharitablefundsthatbusinesscontributesto.Inothercases,thecashispassedalonginabag.Backin2007,journalist
NataliaMorarwroteaboutthePresidentialAdministrationpassingalongcashtopoliticalparties.Belykh,asaleaderofthe
UnionofRightForces,hadtoknowaboutthat.Sotheregimeisfacedwiththequestionofwhetherblackcashboxesshould
continueifso,thenwhohastherighttomakeuseofthem?Insteadofbusinessasusual,willtheybeaprivilegefewareentitled
to?ItsclearthatneitherPutinnortheSKhavethoughtthisthroughwhatshappeningnowisjustaconsequenceoftheregime
aimingtosurvive.Butitsobviouswewillseemoresuchincidentsinthenexttwo-threeyears.
#2:Aretheliberalsafifthcolumnorapartnerofvlast?ThedifferencebetweenBelykhandgovernorswhowerearrested
earlierKhoroshavinandGayzeristhatBelykhwaspartofabalancingelementamongtheokhranitelyandthesystemic
liberals.Belykhcametopowerin2009,atatimetheKremlinwasplayingagamewiththeurbanmiddleclass.Belykhs
arrestisaseriousblowtothattime(thetimeofSurkov)andeffortstoincorporatethepotentialnesoglasnikhintothesystem.
BelykhwasalinkbetweenamaturingBolotnayaandtheKremlin.Now,withpressureonallthosewholooktotheWest,all
suchlinksarenolongeroperative.ThesignificanceofBelykhsarrestisbeingunder-estimated.Thesilovikyarehopingtogo
afterthosetheyconsiderpartofthefifthcolumn,andpeoplelikeSurkov,Kudrin,Gref,Chubays,Medvedevandhiscircleare
vulnerable(Comment:Iwascommentingonbalancingtheotherday,thinkingthatPutinsrecentmovestoboost
ZolotovandapparentlyweakenotherpowerdepartmentsliketheFSBandtheMVDmightworktheoppositeof
whatheintendedpreventinganypalacecoupslesstrustedsilovikymightgetinvolvedinduringaseriouscrisis.I
alsonotedthatPutinhadattemptedsomemodestbalancingmeasures,likesendingtheFSKNandtheFMStothe
MVDascompensationforthelossoftheInternalTroops.AndIthoughtthatKudrinscomingbackintothepicture
mighthavebeenabalancingstep(partlyone)meanttocalmdownthesystemicliberalsbutcampaigns,
announcedornot,haveamomentumoftheirown.IdoubttheimplicationsofarrestingBelykhwerethoughtthrough
andwereadyesterdaythatPutinmaynothaveevenknownthatBelykhwouldbeingarrestedbeforehand
(StanovayatakesuptheideathatPutindoesnotgiveagoaheadoneachcasebelow.Hertakeseemsaboutrightto
mespeakingofnotgivingagoaheadbeforehand,IdontbelievePutinapprovedtheNemtsovkilling,either).The
playerstendtobereactive,lessthoughtfulchessplayersthanmostimagine.SoBelykhsarrest,whichcouldbe
viewedasanaturalstepinawaveofmeasurestoprotecttheregimefromanypossibleweaklinks,canbecomea
problem.Wealsoread(again)yesterdaythattheFSBUSBsFeoktistovwasinchargeoftheoperationaimedat
BelykhandOrlovahasclaimedthatZolotovistheprotectorandunofficialoverseeroftheFSBUSBfromthe29
Junenotes:[Comment:WehavereadelsewherethatZolotovsolddepartmentthePresidentialSecurityService,partoftheFSO,wasbeing
usedbyPutinasacadresreserve(see,forinstance,the2Junenotes)andIvearguedthatZolotovsrisemakessenseinviewofthecrisis,
Putinssuspicions,elitefears,andPutinsnarrowingclosecircle(Seemycommentsinyesterdaysnotes).Iftheauthorofthearticleabove,
KarinaOrlova,iscorrectandZolotovisoverseerandprotectoroftheFSBUSB,thenitalsomakessensethatthedirectoratewouldbeusedto
purgeuntrustworthy(orpotentiallyuntrustworthy)figures(SeemytakeonBelykhsarrestinthe27Junenotes),andwouldgrowininfluence
andexpanditsterritory.OneofoursourcesclaimedthatYakovlevwasaBortnikovprotginthatcase,ifZolotovreallyisthepowerbehind
theUSB,YakovlevsdeparturefromFSBSEBmakessenseinthecontextoftheFSBvsFSObattle(see,forinstance,the2Junenotes)andthe
tensionsfollowingtheNemtsovmurder.]).Itisthatpartoftheestablishmentthatisunderpressure.Theonlypersontheycanappeal
toisPutin.TheBelykhexampleisatrumpcardinthegameagainsttheliberals.
#3Aregovernorselitesorordinaryexecutives?Inabitmorethanayear,threegovernorshavebeenarrested.Onceisan
exception,twiceatendency,thethirdtimearule.Wearewitnessingacriticallyimportanttransformationwithintheregime.The
governorsweremadepartofthevertical,thenbecameakeysupportgroupfortheregime,andnowareavulnerablepartofthe
system.Agovernorsposthasbecomepoliticallydangerous.Acriticaldelimitationbetweentheverytopofthesystem,withits
privilegesandimmunity,andtherestisbeingmade(Comment:Seemyremarksaboveonthenarrowingcircleoftrust).
Thisishavinganimpactonnotonlythegovernors,butmembersofUnitedRussia,deputies,highly-placedofficials(including
deputyministers),andtheheadsofmajorcompanies.Thecompetitionwithintheeliteforbenefitsisincreasing,whilethenumber
ofavailablebenefitsisdecreasing.
Questionis,iftheKremlinnolongervaluesthegovernors,thenhowcanitprovideforpoliticalcontrol?Upuntilnow,nomatter
whowasappointedgovernor,theKremlincouldbesureofloyalty,dependingonloyalpersons(whichmeantamemberofthe
systemicoppositioncouldbecomeagovernorComment:AnotherinterestingpointtoponderasInotedearlier,the
KremlinseffortstoassertpoweroverthesilovikyviatheNationalGuardandZolotovsrisecouldbackfire,
producingthekindofdisloyaltytheKremlinmayhavesuspectedwaslurkingamongthepowerdepartments.The
samecouldbetrueofthegovernorsnotnow,theywillbehunkeringdownandtryingtoprotectthemselves,butina
seriouspolitical/social/economiccrisis).ThegovernorspostinrelationtotheKremlinisbecomingmoretechnical.

#4Thesilovikyaretheyaninstrumentoranindependentforce?ThepoliticalfieldinRussiahasbeenmonopolized.Thereal
powerstruggleisinanarrowcircleofpeopleclosetoPutin.Thepublicspherehasbeende-politicized,butanon-publicsortof
politicsisaliveontheperiphery.ThedomesticpoliticalsphereisgraduallybeingdividedbetweenthePresidential
Administrationsdomesticpoliticsdepartment(whichhandlespoliticaldecorations)andthesiloviky,whoaretakingupon
themselvestheroleofscenarist.Soarethesilovikyindependentactorsoraninstrumentforperformingtasksassignedfrom
above?

EkhoMoskvyChiefEditorAlekseyVenediktov,whoisalsoafriendofBelykhs,tellushowPutincouldhavesanctionedthe
arresthesimplysaidFollowthelaw,whichiswhathesupposedlysaidbeforethearrestofKhodorkovskiy.Butthesituation
haschangedin2003,Putinwasgoingafterhispoliticalenemies,nowhemoreoftenleavesituptothesilovikytomakeacall.
Anexclusiveprecedentin2003canbecomeroutinein2016ifthedemi-urgestaysoutofit.In2003,thesilovikytookon
precisiontasks.Todayitismorelikeaconveyorbelt.Lawenforcementisnowlookingovertheentirepoliticalclass.Theidea
thatthereisapacketofkompromatoneveryoneandonlythepresidentcangivethego-aheadonacaseislosingforce.Today,
thepresidentdoesntgiveago-ahead,butstillhastheprivilegeofputtingthebrakeson,somethingthatcanhappenonlyisheis
awareofwhatsgoingon.YoucantcallPutin?Thentheymaycomeforyou.

#5Themostinterestingquestionofallishowfarcanthesystemgoinprosecutingitsown?Whereistheborderbetweenthose
whohaveimmunityandthosewhodont?Areministersatriskofbeingarrested?Howdoesthesystemrecognizethosewhose
arrestwoulddestabilizethesystemitselforthosewhobyremainingfreethreatende-stabilization?Asthecircleofpotential
victimsexpands,thestatesrepressivestructuresgrowstrongerThetendencytorepressiongrows,asrepressionbecomesless
selectiveandlawenforcementbecomesmoreexperiencedatpracticingrepression.Someseetheeconomiccrisisasgiving
liberalizationachance,butitcouldhavetheoppositeeffectandintimetherepressivepowercouldgrowstrongerthanthose
consideredthefoundersofthesystem.

NobailforBelykh

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/russian-governor-held-on-corruption-charges-refused-bail/574422.html

AMoscowcourthasrefusedtobailKirovregiongovernorNikitaBelykh,whowasarrestedlastmonthoncorruptioncharges,theTASS
newsagencyreportedWednesday.

Belykhslawyershadappealedtothecourtforthepoliticiantobeplacedunderhousearrestorreleasedonbailof28millionrubles
($430,000),TASSreported.

Theinvestigationhasnogroundsforkeepinghimunderarrestbutthecourttooknonotice,saidVadimProkhorov,Belykhslawyer.
ProkhorovsaidthathisclientshealthwasdeterioratinginprisonandmaintainedthatBelykhwasnotabribe-taker.Healsotold
journaliststhatBelykhwaspreparedtogototheEuropeanCourtofHumanRightstoappealhisdetentionandtoclearhisname,
TASSreported.

BelykhhasbeenheldinpretrialdetentionsincehewasarrestedinaMoscowrestaurantlastmonthandchargedwithreceivingbribes
worth400thousandeuros($442thousand).Themoneywasallegedlymeanttoensurethegovernorpromotedtheinterestsoftwo
companiesintheKirovregion.

Belykh,aformeroppositionpartyleader,haspubliclysaidthatthecaseagainsthimwasnotpoliticallymotivated.Hemaintainshis
innocence,claimingthathereceivedthemoneylegallytospendonservicesfortheKirovregion.

AhostofliberalpoliticalfigureshavecomeoutinsupportofBelykhsincehisarrest,includingtheleaderoftheYablokoparty,Grigory
Yavlinsky,thechiefeditorofradiostationEkhoMoskvyandtheDumamemberDmitryGudkov.

BelykhisthethirdgovernorofaRussianregiontobearrestedoncorruptionchargesinthelasttwoyears.

NovayaGazetaonthesilovikywar(FSBvs.FSOMurov/MikhalchenkoThesilovikycadresshakeup)

http://www.novayagazeta.ru/inquests/73735.html

Ahighly-placedFSBofficertellsNovayathatBelykhsarrestexceededtheboundsofunderstoodauthorityusually,any
movesinvolvingapersonappointedbythepresidenthavetobeclearedbythefirstperson,butinBelykhscaseeventhe
operationalworkbeforethearrestwasnotclearedaheadoftimewiththepresident.Informationwasgatheredunderthecover
ofgatheringmaterialonNavalniy.ThesourcetellsNovayathatformonthsnow,aconflictbetweenFSBers,ledbySergey
Ivanov,andFSOpeoplewhowereheadedformallyandinformallybynowex-FSOchiefYevgeniyMurov,hasbeenunderway.
ThesourcesaysthatthecreationoftheNationalGuardwasavictoryfortheFSOsideoftheconflict.Itsnotthemobthatwe
areafraidof,saysthesource,buteachother(Comment:Shulmansaidsomethingsimilarbackinthe27Maynotes).And
thereisabasisforfearthemostseriousfunctiongrantedtotheNationalGuardistheoperational-investigativefunction.Theres
noguaranteethattheNatsguardwillnotusethatfunctiontogoafterFSBpersonnelpostedtoministries,intheregions,andin
majorbanksandenterprises.TheFSOalsopostsitscadresoutsideserviceeverygovernorsoffice,forexample,hasanFSO
officerkeepingwatch,maybeasheadofthegovernorsapparatus,ormaybeasanaideortakingoverthegovernorspost
(Comment:ThatsareferencetoaformerFSOman,Dyumin,takingoverasTulagovernor).

FSOsourcesconfirmthattheFSBclantookthecreationoftheNatsguardhard.AtthesametimetheNatsguardwasbeing
created,therewassomelobbying(Comment:Whodidthelobbying?)tocreateanewMinistryofStateSecurity(MGB)that
wouldincludetheFSB,theFSO,andtheSVR.Murov,however,managedtodefendtheindependenceoftheFSO.Withoutthe
FSO,creatinganMGBdidntmakesense.ButthewheelswerealreadyturningoncreatingtheNatsguard.TheFSBclancould
notsitbyandwatchtheFSOgrowstronger,soablowagainstthemwasdeliveredon16MarchwhenDmitriyMikhalchenko
wasarrested.TheFSBknowsfullwellthatMurovwasMikhalchenkospatron.Murovalsosupposedlyintroduced
MikhalchenkotoPutin,recommendinghimasabusinessmanwhogenerouslysupportedthepresidentsinitiatives.Mikhalchenko
wasactuallyarrestedtwicethefirsttime,theofficerheadingtheoperationcalledMurovandMikhalchenkowassubsequently
released.HewasreprimandedfordoingsoandagainarrestedMikhalchenko.Afewdayslater,theFSBreportedtoPutinabout
thearrestandtheroleoftheFSOclaninMikhalchenkosbusinessschemes.Murovsfatewaspracticallydecidedonthatvery
day.
AnotherFSBvictorywastheliquidationoftheFSKNViktorIvanovwasaheavyweightintheFSOclan.TheFSBthen
movedtogetridofFSO-connectedpeoplewithintheFSBapparatus,themostprominentonebeingtheheadofDirectorateK
ofFSBEconomicSecurity(FSBSEB),ViktorVoronin(Comment:Therewasabitinthe9Junenotesthatclaimed
VoroninwasclosetoViktorIvanov.IwonderedwhetherthefateofIvanovwashavinganimpactonpeople
connectedtohimlikeLarisaKalanda).VoroninsdeparturewasfollowedbymuchtalkofmoreturnoveratFSB.Butcadre
turnoverhasbeendraggedoutsomesaythattheFSBclangrewnervousandmadeafatalmistakebyarrestingBelykh.Both
FSBandFSOsourcessaythattheKirovFSBoverplayeditshandandexceededitsunderstoodauthoritybymakingthe
arrest.Firstofall,PutinwasnotinformedabouttheoperationalexperimentagainstBelykh.

ItcouldbethataftertheBelykharrest,anumberofchangesthatwereintheworksatFSBSEBwerehalted.IvanTkachevof
the6thDirectorateofFSBInternalSecurity(FSBUSB)wassupposedtotakeoverasheadofDirectorateKatFSBSEB,but
isnowsupposedlyslatedforthe1s tdeputyspot.Thewordisthattheheadofthedirectoratewillbeitscurrent1s tdeputychief,
AndreyYegorov.Otherchangesthathavebeentalkedaboutwonthappen.

Comment:Alright,letsseeifwecanmakesomesenseofthisOntheMGBstory,letsbackuptothenotesfrom
20JunethematerialinthosenotesonforminganewMGBorMinistryforPublicSecurity(MOB)seemedtopoint
toastrengtheningofZolotovsposition,withtheNatsguardbeingusedtopurgetheoldpowerstructuresandscreen
officersforpositionsintheMGB.ThematerialfromNovayasaysthatMurovopposedtheMGBprojectandwas
abletosavehisFSO,whichundercuttheMBG/MOBplan.WeusuallythinkofMurovandZolotovasallies,butone
ofoursourceshadZolotovdriftingawayfromhisoldbossandsettingupshoponhisownasNationalGuardchief
(AlekseyMakarkinclaimedinthe2JunenotesthatMurovsdeparturewasavictoryforZolotovasMurovwas
replacedbyKochnev,amanfromtheservicethatZolotovhadheaded,thePresidentialSecurityService.Onereason
IvehadZolotovasabigwinner,bigenoughtoreallyupsetthebalanceamongthesiloviky,isthatsomeofour
sources,Makarkinwasone,havesaidthatPutinisntusingtheFSOasawholeforacadresreserve,hesusingthe
Zolotov-connectedPresidentialSecurityServiceforthat),somaybehesupportedtheMGB/MOBoperation.
Nevertheless,Murovisgonesowhatkindofcloutdoeshehavenowthatcouldpreventthemergergoingforward?
ItwouldmakesensethatiftheendgamewasaMGB/MOBstaffedwithpeoplescreenedbyZolotovthattheFSB
andBortnikovwouldopposeit.WhileMurovsleavingmayatleasthavenotbeenopposedbyZolotov,maybethat
retirementandthedeep-sixingoftheMGB/MOBprojectwascompensationtotheFSBforthecreationofthe
Natsguard,whichpracticallyallofoursourceshaveseenasamovethatweakenstheFSB.Ofcourse,thatdoesnot
meanthatPutinisntinfavorofapurgeandvettingofthepowerstructures,aprocessthatmightbesupervisedby
Zolotov.Wellhavetowaitandseeaboutthat.IsuspectitwonthappenthatPutinwillholdback.Thereare
plentyofotherswhomightopposesuchasuper-concentrationofpowerintheNatsguardandIvewrittenthatmoves
meanttopreventapalacecoupcouldbackfireifthereisaperceptionthatoneplayerisgettingtoostrong.

IvewrittenonMikhalchenkosarrestlikelybeingasignthatMurovwasweakened(Seethe21and31March
notes).Mikhalchenkoalsoturnedupinthe30Marchand26,27,and31Mayand7,9,and10Junenotes.Abitin
the9JunenotesfromKommersanthadVoroninasclosetoMikhalchenko(Andwesawaclaiminthosesamenotes
thatRomodanovskiyofthenow-defunctFMSwasaprotgofVIvanovaswell).Therewassomeconfusionabout
Mikhalchenkoskryshainthe9and10Junenotes,IwentoverapiececlaimingthatMikhalchenkowasinvolved
inthekillingofRomanTsepovinSt.Petersburgbackin2004.Inthatscenario,Mikhalchenkowasconnectedtothe
FSB,whileTsepovwasclosetotheFSOpeople,especiallyZolotov,andthe(reportedly)ViktorIvanov-connected
Romodanovskiy,who,likeZolotov,attendedTsepovsfuneral.
BothTsepovandMikhalchenkohadawebofconnectionstovariouspowerdepartments.ButTsepovstieswere
strongestwithFSOpeople,apparently.Connectionschangeovertimeandoverlap.Upuntilearly2004,Bortnikov
wasinSt.PetersburgmaybeheandMikhalchenkoestablishedafirmrelationship,whileMikhalchnekoalsohad
somelinesouttotheFSOpeople.Couldbethatare-alignmentofkryshastookplacesometimeafterTsepovs
murderandMikhalchenkossteppingintotakeoverTsepovsnicheintheNorthernCapital.Anothercomplicating
factorasmentionedabove,RomodanovskiywenttoTsepovsfuneral.Butabitinthe9Junenotessaidhewas
closetoMikhalchenkoandcouldbeimplicatedinthecaseagainsthim.

OnTkachevheisfromtheFSBUSB.HewassupposedtotakeoveratFSBSEB(See,forinstance,the10June
notes).SeemycommentsaboveaboutOrlovastakeontheFSBUSBbeinginZolotovssphereofinfluence.
Yakovlev,whowassaidtobeaBortnikovprotg,wasreportedlyreplacedatFSBSEBbyInternalSecuritys
Korolev.DidKorolevinfactgetthejob?Abitinthe14Junenotesclaimedthathehadalreadytakenoverashead
ofFSBSEB.ThatsamebitsaidthatKorolevwasresponsibleforthecriminalcasethatcosttheFSBSEBsheadof
DirectorateK,ViktorVoronin,hispost,aswellasheadofFSBSEBYakovlevlosinghis.Morechangeswere
supposedlyontheway,butNovayaclaimstheywonthappen.Sothemaneuveringiscontinuing.

Putincancelsallmeetingsforthenextweek

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/putin-cancels-all-meetings-for-a-week/574433.html
RussianPresidentVladimirPutinhascancelledallplannedengagementsfortherestoftheweek,theRBCnewspaperreported
Wednesday,citingKremlinsources.

Thereasonsforthecancellationsisasyetunknown.KremlinspokespersonDmitryPeskovtoldjournaliststhatnoneofPutins
scheduledtripshadbeendecidedlyconfirmed.

AStateCouncilmeetinginAltaiwhichPutinhadbeenduetoattendwascancelledonTuesdayandhasnowbeenindefinitely
postponed.HisappearanceataneventinYakutiaonThursdaywasalsocancelled,RBCreported.

Iwouldntdramatizethesituation,saidEgorBorisov,PresidentoftheYakutiaRegion.Theheadofstatehasaschedulewhichcan
bechanged.

PutinhasnotattendedapubliceventsincehisofficialvisittoFinlandonFridayJuly1.

ItisnotthefirsttimethattheRussianleaderhasdisappearedfromthepubliceye.Putinalsocancelledallengagementsand
disappearedfrompublicviewfor11daysinMarchlastyear.

VladimirFrolovonPutinsNewdtente

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinion/article/a-modest-deal-vladimir-putin-s-new-d-tente-op-ed/574322.html

RussianPresidentVladimirPutinisindeconflictionmodewiththeWestafterawildrideoftwoandahalfyearsofmilitary
anddiplomatictensions.

InawiderangingpolicyspeechatabiannualmeetingofRussianambassadorsonJuly1,Putindidnotjustgothroughtheregularlitany
ofcomplaintsovertheWestignoringRussia'sinterests,NATOexpansion,U.S.unilateralism,missiledefenseandoverthrowingregimes
in"colorrevolutions."Heeschewedsaber-rattlingoverNATO'sdecisionstodeployadditionalforcesintheBaltics,calledWestern
countriespartnersincreatinga"broadanti-terroristfront,"andemphasizedRussia'sinterestin"closecooperationwiththeUnitedStates
oninternationalaffairs."

Onlytwoweeksbefore,attheSt.PetersburgInternationalEconomicForum,PutinsaidRussiaacceptedtheUnitedStatesasthe"only
superpower"andwantedtoworkwithit,providedtheUnitedStateskeptitsdemocracylecturestoitself.OnavisittoFinlandafew
daysago,PutinagreedtoholdameetingoftheRussia-NATOCouncilafterNATO'sWarsawsummitthisweek,acceptedNATO's
proposalforpreventingmilitaryairandseaincidentsandinstructedRussia'sdefenseministertoflyRussianmilitaryplanesover
theBalticSeawiththeirtransponderson.

Sinceearly2016,PutinandotherseniorRussianofficialshavebeensignalingMoscow'sinterestinde-escalatingtensionswiththeWest.
TheywanttonormalizerelationsMoscowviewsasgoingbacktopre-Crimea,bracketingitoutasRussiaandtheWestmanagedtodo
afterRussia's2008warwithGeorgia,withoutanyrollbackofRussianpoliciestoexertcontroloverUkraine.

MoscowhasbeentakingstockofitsforcefulpoliciestoreassertRussia'sstatusasaglobalpowerandtorollbacktheexpansion
ofWesterninstitutionsintotheformerSovietspacethatRussiaviewsasitsrightfulsphereofinfluence.Thesepoliciesofmanaged
confrontationwiththeWestoverUkraineandlaterSyriahavebeenwidelypopularwiththedomesticaudienceinRussiaover60
percentthinkRussia'sforeignpolicyissuccessfulandboostedPutin'sdomesticsupporttostratosphericlevels.

Yet,actualpolicyresultshavebeensomewhatunderwhelming.MoscowhasprovenitsabilitytowreckUkrainetopreventitfromjoining
Westernalliances.ButthecostshavebeenenormousbothintermsofWesterneconomicsanctions,diplomaticisolationandaruined
relationshipwithacloseneighbor.Yet,theWesthasrefusedtorecognizeRussia'ssphereofinfluenceandhasignoredcallstofleshout
anewYaltaagreementonthepost-ColdWarsettlement.Moscow'smilitarypositionwithregardtotheWesthasactuallydeterioratedas
NATObeganapplyingtheworst-caseassumptionstoMoscow'sirresponsiblesaber-rattlingandunpredictablebehaviorandbegan
planningforadditionaltroopdeployments,araceMoscowcouldnotwin.ThepolicyofaggressivelydeterringtheUnitedStates
andNATOwasfastapproachingapointofdiminishingreturns.

Russiahasweatheredthesanctions'impactanditseconomydidnotcollapse.Butthesanctionshavebeenlimitedanditbecameclear
thatamoreforcefulWesternresponse,likebansonexportstotheEUandthesuspensionofSWIFTtransactionscouldhaveresulted
inadevastatingblowtoRussia'seconomy,whileapivottoAsiaprovedhardertoachieve.

Moscow'sdaringmilitaryinterventioninSyriain2015succeededinpiercingRussia'sisolationoverUkraineandwassomewhat
breathtakinglyhailedasthecountry'sascensiontotheeliteclubonaparwiththeUnitedStates,capableofdeployingmilitaryforce
abroadtoaffectpoliticaloutcomes.RussiamayhaverescuedSyrianPresidentBasharAssad'sregimefromamilitarydefeat,butits
investmentofbloodandtreasurehasboughtitonlymoreAssadandsomelimitedcooperationwiththeUnitedStates.Now,almost
ayearafteritsintervention,MoscowisstillstuckinSyriaandisonthevergeofowningitsmessofacivilwarIranissharinginthis
investment.Itdesperatelyneedsapoliticalexittodeclarevictoryandgohome,butthatcouldonlybeengineeredthroughcooperation
withtheUnitedStates,Turkey(hencethelatestrapprochement)andSaudiArabia.

VladimirFrolovisapoliticalanalyst.

From: PeterReddaway<pbreddaway@gmail.com>
Senttime: 07/07/201608:22:19AM
To: WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>
Cc: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: Re:InternetNotes6July2016

T
hanks,Wayne,fortheilluminatingpieceonMikhalchenkoetalinyournotesofyesterday,whichI'veonly
justread.Muchofitisovermyhead,butonecommentthatmightbeusefulisthatMurov'sinfluencemay
nowbezero.Hemustbeabout70,andIcan'tthinkofanyfiguresunderPutinwho'vemaintainedinfluence
atthatage.

Best,

Peter

OnWed,Jul6,2016at6:52PM,WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>wrote:

InternetNotes6July2016

StanovayaontheregimesfivedilemmasoverBelykh.1

NobailforBelykh.3

NovayaGazetaonthesilovikywar(FSBvs.FSOMurov/MikhalchenkoThesilovikycadresshakeup)4

Putincancelsallmeetingsforthenextweek.7

VladimirFrolovonPutinsNewdtente.7

StanovayaontheregimesfivedilemmasoverBelykh

http://slon.ru/posts/70141

ItsapparentthatthefundamentalrulesofthegamearechangingThedirectionvlastwilltakedependsonhowtheregime
solvessomedilemmas

#1:TheBlackcashboxaprivilegeorbusinessasusual?BelykhclaimsthatthemoneyhewaspickingupataMoscow
restaurantwasnotabribe,butoff-the-bookscashforregionaldevelopmentInRussia,suchablackcashbox,likebribery,is
inevitable.Thewholeverticalofpowerrunsoffsuchcash.Thequestionishowitisorganizedmoreexperiencedplayersset
upcharitablefundsthatbusinesscontributesto.Inothercases,thecashispassedalonginabag.Backin2007,journalist
NataliaMorarwroteaboutthePresidentialAdministrationpassingalongcashtopoliticalparties.Belykh,asaleaderofthe
UnionofRightForces,hadtoknowaboutthat.Sotheregimeisfacedwiththequestionofwhetherblackcashboxesshould
continueifso,thenwhohastherighttomakeuseofthem?Insteadofbusinessasusual,willtheybeaprivilegefewareentitled
to?ItsclearthatneitherPutinnortheSKhavethoughtthisthroughwhatshappeningnowisjustaconsequenceoftheregime
aimingtosurvive.Butitsobviouswewillseemoresuchincidentsinthenexttwo-threeyears.
#2:Aretheliberalsafifthcolumnorapartnerofvlast?ThedifferencebetweenBelykhandgovernorswhowerearrested
earlierKhoroshavinandGayzeristhatBelykhwaspartofabalancingelementamongtheokhranitelyandthesystemic
liberals.Belykhcametopowerin2009,atatimetheKremlinwasplayingagamewiththeurbanmiddleclass.Belykhs
arrestisaseriousblowtothattime(thetimeofSurkov)andeffortstoincorporatethepotentialnesoglasnikhintothesystem.
BelykhwasalinkbetweenamaturingBolotnayaandtheKremlin.Now,withpressureonallthosewholooktotheWest,all
suchlinksarenolongeroperative.ThesignificanceofBelykhsarrestisbeingunder-estimated.Thesilovikyarehopingtogo
afterthosetheyconsiderpartofthefifthcolumn,andpeoplelikeSurkov,Kudrin,Gref,Chubays,Medvedevandhiscircleare
vulnerable(Comment:Iwascommentingonbalancingtheotherday,thinkingthatPutinsrecentmovestoboost
ZolotovandapparentlyweakenotherpowerdepartmentsliketheFSBandtheMVDmightworktheoppositeof
whatheintendedpreventinganypalacecoupslesstrustedsilovikymightgetinvolvedinduringaseriouscrisis.I
alsonotedthatPutinhadattemptedsomemodestbalancingmeasures,likesendingtheFSKNandtheFMStothe
MVDascompensationforthelossoftheInternalTroops.AndIthoughtthatKudrinscomingbackintothepicture
mighthavebeenabalancingstep(partlyone)meanttocalmdownthesystemicliberalsbutcampaigns,
announcedornot,haveamomentumoftheirown.IdoubttheimplicationsofarrestingBelykhwerethoughtthrough
andwereadyesterdaythatPutinmaynothaveevenknownthatBelykhwouldbeingarrestedbeforehand
(StanovayatakesuptheideathatPutindoesnotgiveagoaheadoneachcasebelow.Hertakeseemsaboutrightto
mespeakingofnotgivingagoaheadbeforehand,IdontbelievePutinapprovedtheNemtsovkilling,either).The
playerstendtobereactive,lessthoughtfulchessplayersthanmostimagine.SoBelykhsarrest,whichcouldbe
viewedasanaturalstepinawaveofmeasurestoprotecttheregimefromanypossibleweaklinks,canbecomea
problem.Wealsoread(again)yesterdaythattheFSBUSBsFeoktistovwasinchargeoftheoperationaimedat
BelykhandOrlovahasclaimedthatZolotovistheprotectorandunofficialoverseeroftheFSBUSBfromthe29
Junenotes:[Comment:WehavereadelsewherethatZolotovsolddepartmentthePresidentialSecurityService,partoftheFSO,wasbeing
usedbyPutinasacadresreserve(see,forinstance,the2Junenotes)andIvearguedthatZolotovsrisemakessenseinviewofthecrisis,
Putinssuspicions,elitefears,andPutinsnarrowingclosecircle(Seemycommentsinyesterdaysnotes).Iftheauthorofthearticleabove,
KarinaOrlova,iscorrectandZolotovisoverseerandprotectoroftheFSBUSB,thenitalsomakessensethatthedirectoratewouldbeusedto
purgeuntrustworthy(orpotentiallyuntrustworthy)figures(SeemytakeonBelykhsarrestinthe27Junenotes),andwouldgrowininfluence
andexpanditsterritory.OneofoursourcesclaimedthatYakovlevwasaBortnikovprotginthatcase,ifZolotovreallyisthepowerbehind
theUSB,YakovlevsdeparturefromFSBSEBmakessenseinthecontextoftheFSBvsFSObattle(see,forinstance,the2Junenotes)andthe
tensionsfollowingtheNemtsovmurder.]).Itisthatpartoftheestablishmentthatisunderpressure.Theonlypersontheycanappeal
toisPutin.TheBelykhexampleisatrumpcardinthegameagainsttheliberals.
#3Aregovernorselitesorordinaryexecutives?Inabitmorethanayear,threegovernorshavebeenarrested.Onceisan
exception,twiceatendency,thethirdtimearule.Wearewitnessingacriticallyimportanttransformationwithintheregime.The
governorsweremadepartofthevertical,thenbecameakeysupportgroupfortheregime,andnowareavulnerablepartofthe
system.Agovernorsposthasbecomepoliticallydangerous.Acriticaldelimitationbetweentheverytopofthesystem,withits
privilegesandimmunity,andtherestisbeingmade(Comment:Seemyremarksaboveonthenarrowingcircleoftrust).
Thisishavinganimpactonnotonlythegovernors,butmembersofUnitedRussia,deputies,highly-placedofficials(including
deputyministers),andtheheadsofmajorcompanies.Thecompetitionwithintheeliteforbenefitsisincreasing,whilethenumber
ofavailablebenefitsisdecreasing.
Questionis,iftheKremlinnolongervaluesthegovernors,thenhowcanitprovideforpoliticalcontrol?Upuntilnow,nomatter
whowasappointedgovernor,theKremlincouldbesureofloyalty,dependingonloyalpersons(whichmeantamemberofthe
systemicoppositioncouldbecomeagovernorComment:AnotherinterestingpointtoponderasInotedearlier,the
KremlinseffortstoassertpoweroverthesilovikyviatheNationalGuardandZolotovsrisecouldbackfire,
producingthekindofdisloyaltytheKremlinmayhavesuspectedwaslurkingamongthepowerdepartments.The
samecouldbetrueofthegovernorsnotnow,theywillbehunkeringdownandtryingtoprotectthemselves,butina
seriouspolitical/social/economiccrisis).ThegovernorspostinrelationtotheKremlinisbecomingmoretechnical.

#4Thesilovikyaretheyaninstrumentoranindependentforce?ThepoliticalfieldinRussiahasbeenmonopolized.Thereal
powerstruggleisinanarrowcircleofpeopleclosetoPutin.Thepublicspherehasbeende-politicized,butanon-publicsortof
politicsisaliveontheperiphery.ThedomesticpoliticalsphereisgraduallybeingdividedbetweenthePresidential
Administrationsdomesticpoliticsdepartment(whichhandlespoliticaldecorations)andthesiloviky,whoaretakingupon
themselvestheroleofscenarist.Soarethesilovikyindependentactorsoraninstrumentforperformingtasksassignedfrom
above?

EkhoMoskvyChiefEditorAlekseyVenediktov,whoisalsoafriendofBelykhs,tellushowPutincouldhavesanctionedthe
arresthesimplysaidFollowthelaw,whichiswhathesupposedlysaidbeforethearrestofKhodorkovskiy.Butthesituation
haschangedin2003,Putinwasgoingafterhispoliticalenemies,nowhemoreoftenleavesituptothesilovikytomakeacall.
Anexclusiveprecedentin2003canbecomeroutinein2016ifthedemi-urgestaysoutofit.In2003,thesilovikytookon
precisiontasks.Todayitismorelikeaconveyorbelt.Lawenforcementisnowlookingovertheentirepoliticalclass.Theidea
thatthereisapacketofkompromatoneveryoneandonlythepresidentcangivethego-aheadonacaseislosingforce.Today,
thepresidentdoesntgiveago-ahead,butstillhastheprivilegeofputtingthebrakeson,somethingthatcanhappenonlyisheis
awareofwhatsgoingon.YoucantcallPutin?Thentheymaycomeforyou.

#5Themostinterestingquestionofallishowfarcanthesystemgoinprosecutingitsown?Whereistheborderbetweenthose
whohaveimmunityandthosewhodont?Areministersatriskofbeingarrested?Howdoesthesystemrecognizethosewhose
arrestwoulddestabilizethesystemitselforthosewhobyremainingfreethreatende-stabilization?Asthecircleofpotential
victimsexpands,thestatesrepressivestructuresgrowstrongerThetendencytorepressiongrows,asrepressionbecomesless
selectiveandlawenforcementbecomesmoreexperiencedatpracticingrepression.Someseetheeconomiccrisisasgiving
liberalizationachance,butitcouldhavetheoppositeeffectandintimetherepressivepowercouldgrowstrongerthanthose
consideredthefoundersofthesystem.

NobailforBelykh

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/russian-governor-held-on-corruption-charges-refused-bail/574422.html

AMoscowcourthasrefusedtobailKirovregiongovernorNikitaBelykh,whowasarrestedlastmonthoncorruptioncharges,theTASS
newsagencyreportedWednesday.

Belykhslawyershadappealedtothecourtforthepoliticiantobeplacedunderhousearrestorreleasedonbailof28millionrubles
($430,000),TASSreported.

Theinvestigationhasnogroundsforkeepinghimunderarrestbutthecourttooknonotice,saidVadimProkhorov,Belykhslawyer.
ProkhorovsaidthathisclientshealthwasdeterioratinginprisonandmaintainedthatBelykhwasnotabribe-taker.Healsotold
journaliststhatBelykhwaspreparedtogototheEuropeanCourtofHumanRightstoappealhisdetentionandtoclearhisname,
TASSreported.

BelykhhasbeenheldinpretrialdetentionsincehewasarrestedinaMoscowrestaurantlastmonthandchargedwithreceivingbribes
worth400thousandeuros($442thousand).Themoneywasallegedlymeanttoensurethegovernorpromotedtheinterestsoftwo
companiesintheKirovregion.

Belykh,aformeroppositionpartyleader,haspubliclysaidthatthecaseagainsthimwasnotpoliticallymotivated.Hemaintainshis
innocence,claimingthathereceivedthemoneylegallytospendonservicesfortheKirovregion.

AhostofliberalpoliticalfigureshavecomeoutinsupportofBelykhsincehisarrest,includingtheleaderoftheYablokoparty,Grigory
Yavlinsky,thechiefeditorofradiostationEkhoMoskvyandtheDumamemberDmitryGudkov.

BelykhisthethirdgovernorofaRussianregiontobearrestedoncorruptionchargesinthelasttwoyears.

NovayaGazetaonthesilovikywar(FSBvs.FSOMurov/MikhalchenkoThesilovikycadresshakeup)

http://www.novayagazeta.ru/inquests/73735.html

Ahighly-placedFSBofficertellsNovayathatBelykhsarrestexceededtheboundsofunderstoodauthorityusually,any
movesinvolvingapersonappointedbythepresidenthavetobeclearedbythefirstperson,butinBelykhscaseeventhe
operationalworkbeforethearrestwasnotclearedaheadoftimewiththepresident.Informationwasgatheredunderthecover
ofgatheringmaterialonNavalniy.ThesourcetellsNovayathatformonthsnow,aconflictbetweenFSBers,ledbySergey
Ivanov,andFSOpeoplewhowereheadedformallyandinformallybynowex-FSOchiefYevgeniyMurov,hasbeenunderway.
ThesourcesaysthatthecreationoftheNationalGuardwasavictoryfortheFSOsideoftheconflict.Itsnotthemobthatwe
areafraidof,saysthesource,buteachother(Comment:Shulmansaidsomethingsimilarbackinthe27Maynotes).And
thereisabasisforfearthemostseriousfunctiongrantedtotheNationalGuardistheoperational-investigativefunction.Theres
noguaranteethattheNatsguardwillnotusethatfunctiontogoafterFSBpersonnelpostedtoministries,intheregions,andin
majorbanksandenterprises.TheFSOalsopostsitscadresoutsideserviceeverygovernorsoffice,forexample,hasanFSO
officerkeepingwatch,maybeasheadofthegovernorsapparatus,ormaybeasanaideortakingoverthegovernorspost
(Comment:ThatsareferencetoaformerFSOman,Dyumin,takingoverasTulagovernor).

FSOsourcesconfirmthattheFSBclantookthecreationoftheNatsguardhard.AtthesametimetheNatsguardwasbeing
created,therewassomelobbying(Comment:Whodidthelobbying?)tocreateanewMinistryofStateSecurity(MGB)that
wouldincludetheFSB,theFSO,andtheSVR.Murov,however,managedtodefendtheindependenceoftheFSO.Withoutthe
FSO,creatinganMGBdidntmakesense.ButthewheelswerealreadyturningoncreatingtheNatsguard.TheFSBclancould
notsitbyandwatchtheFSOgrowstronger,soablowagainstthemwasdeliveredon16MarchwhenDmitriyMikhalchenko
wasarrested.TheFSBknowsfullwellthatMurovwasMikhalchenkospatron.Murovalsosupposedlyintroduced
MikhalchenkotoPutin,recommendinghimasabusinessmanwhogenerouslysupportedthepresidentsinitiatives.Mikhalchenko
wasactuallyarrestedtwicethefirsttime,theofficerheadingtheoperationcalledMurovandMikhalchenkowassubsequently
released.HewasreprimandedfordoingsoandagainarrestedMikhalchenko.Afewdayslater,theFSBreportedtoPutinabout
thearrestandtheroleoftheFSOclaninMikhalchenkosbusinessschemes.Murovsfatewaspracticallydecidedonthatvery
day.
AnotherFSBvictorywastheliquidationoftheFSKNViktorIvanovwasaheavyweightintheFSOclan.TheFSBthen
movedtogetridofFSO-connectedpeoplewithintheFSBapparatus,themostprominentonebeingtheheadofDirectorateK
ofFSBEconomicSecurity(FSBSEB),ViktorVoronin(Comment:Therewasabitinthe9Junenotesthatclaimed
VoroninwasclosetoViktorIvanov.IwonderedwhetherthefateofIvanovwashavinganimpactonpeople
connectedtohimlikeLarisaKalanda).VoroninsdeparturewasfollowedbymuchtalkofmoreturnoveratFSB.Butcadre
turnoverhasbeendraggedoutsomesaythattheFSBclangrewnervousandmadeafatalmistakebyarrestingBelykh.Both
FSBandFSOsourcessaythattheKirovFSBoverplayeditshandandexceededitsunderstoodauthoritybymakingthe
arrest.Firstofall,PutinwasnotinformedabouttheoperationalexperimentagainstBelykh.

ItcouldbethataftertheBelykharrest,anumberofchangesthatwereintheworksatFSBSEBwerehalted.IvanTkachevof
the6thDirectorateofFSBInternalSecurity(FSBUSB)wassupposedtotakeoverasheadofDirectorateKatFSBSEB,but
isnowsupposedlyslatedforthe1s tdeputyspot.Thewordisthattheheadofthedirectoratewillbeitscurrent1s tdeputychief,
AndreyYegorov.Otherchangesthathavebeentalkedaboutwonthappen.

Comment:Alright,letsseeifwecanmakesomesenseofthisOntheMGBstory,letsbackuptothenotesfrom
20JunethematerialinthosenotesonforminganewMGBorMinistryforPublicSecurity(MOB)seemedtopoint
toastrengtheningofZolotovsposition,withtheNatsguardbeingusedtopurgetheoldpowerstructuresandscreen
officersforpositionsintheMGB.ThematerialfromNovayasaysthatMurovopposedtheMGBprojectandwas
abletosavehisFSO,whichundercuttheMBG/MOBplan.WeusuallythinkofMurovandZolotovasallies,butone
ofoursourceshadZolotovdriftingawayfromhisoldbossandsettingupshoponhisownasNationalGuardchief
(AlekseyMakarkinclaimedinthe2JunenotesthatMurovsdeparturewasavictoryforZolotovasMurovwas
replacedbyKochnev,amanfromtheservicethatZolotovhadheaded,thePresidentialSecurityService.Onereason
IvehadZolotovasabigwinner,bigenoughtoreallyupsetthebalanceamongthesiloviky,isthatsomeofour
sources,Makarkinwasone,havesaidthatPutinisntusingtheFSOasawholeforacadresreserve,hesusingthe
Zolotov-connectedPresidentialSecurityServiceforthat),somaybehesupportedtheMGB/MOBoperation.
Nevertheless,Murovisgonesowhatkindofcloutdoeshehavenowthatcouldpreventthemergergoingforward?
ItwouldmakesensethatiftheendgamewasaMGB/MOBstaffedwithpeoplescreenedbyZolotovthattheFSB
andBortnikovwouldopposeit.WhileMurovsleavingmayatleasthavenotbeenopposedbyZolotov,maybethat
retirementandthedeep-sixingoftheMGB/MOBprojectwascompensationtotheFSBforthecreationofthe
Natsguard,whichpracticallyallofoursourceshaveseenasamovethatweakenstheFSB.Ofcourse,thatdoesnot
meanthatPutinisntinfavorofapurgeandvettingofthepowerstructures,aprocessthatmightbesupervisedby
Zolotov.Wellhavetowaitandseeaboutthat.IsuspectitwonthappenthatPutinwillholdback.Thereare
plentyofotherswhomightopposesuchasuper-concentrationofpowerintheNatsguardandIvewrittenthatmoves
meanttopreventapalacecoupcouldbackfireifthereisaperceptionthatoneplayerisgettingtoostrong.

IvewrittenonMikhalchenkosarrestlikelybeingasignthatMurovwasweakened(Seethe21and31March
notes).Mikhalchenkoalsoturnedupinthe30Marchand26,27,and31Mayand7,9,and10Junenotes.Abitin
the9JunenotesfromKommersanthadVoroninasclosetoMikhalchenko(Andwesawaclaiminthosesamenotes
thatRomodanovskiyofthenow-defunctFMSwasaprotgofVIvanovaswell).Therewassomeconfusionabout
Mikhalchenkoskryshainthe9and10Junenotes,IwentoverapiececlaimingthatMikhalchenkowasinvolved
inthekillingofRomanTsepovinSt.Petersburgbackin2004.Inthatscenario,Mikhalchenkowasconnectedtothe
FSB,whileTsepovwasclosetotheFSOpeople,especiallyZolotov,andthe(reportedly)ViktorIvanov-connected
Romodanovskiy,who,likeZolotov,attendedTsepovsfuneral.
BothTsepovandMikhalchenkohadawebofconnectionstovariouspowerdepartments.ButTsepovstieswere
strongestwithFSOpeople,apparently.Connectionschangeovertimeandoverlap.Upuntilearly2004,Bortnikov
wasinSt.PetersburgmaybeheandMikhalchenkoestablishedafirmrelationship,whileMikhalchnekoalsohad
somelinesouttotheFSOpeople.Couldbethatare-alignmentofkryshastookplacesometimeafterTsepovs
murderandMikhalchenkossteppingintotakeoverTsepovsnicheintheNorthernCapital.Anothercomplicating
factorasmentionedabove,RomodanovskiywenttoTsepovsfuneral.Butabitinthe9Junenotessaidhewas
closetoMikhalchenkoandcouldbeimplicatedinthecaseagainsthim.

OnTkachevheisfromtheFSBUSB.HewassupposedtotakeoveratFSBSEB(See,forinstance,the10June
notes).SeemycommentsaboveaboutOrlovastakeontheFSBUSBbeinginZolotovssphereofinfluence.
Yakovlev,whowassaidtobeaBortnikovprotg,wasreportedlyreplacedatFSBSEBbyInternalSecuritys
Korolev.DidKorolevinfactgetthejob?Abitinthe14Junenotesclaimedthathehadalreadytakenoverashead
ofFSBSEB.ThatsamebitsaidthatKorolevwasresponsibleforthecriminalcasethatcosttheFSBSEBsheadof
DirectorateK,ViktorVoronin,hispost,aswellasheadofFSBSEBYakovlevlosinghis.Morechangeswere
supposedlyontheway,butNovayaclaimstheywonthappen.Sothemaneuveringiscontinuing.

Putincancelsallmeetingsforthenextweek

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/putin-cancels-all-meetings-for-a-week/574433.html
RussianPresidentVladimirPutinhascancelledallplannedengagementsfortherestoftheweek,theRBCnewspaperreported
Wednesday,citingKremlinsources.

Thereasonsforthecancellationsisasyetunknown.KremlinspokespersonDmitryPeskovtoldjournaliststhatnoneofPutins
scheduledtripshadbeendecidedlyconfirmed.

AStateCouncilmeetinginAltaiwhichPutinhadbeenduetoattendwascancelledonTuesdayandhasnowbeenindefinitely
postponed.HisappearanceataneventinYakutiaonThursdaywasalsocancelled,RBCreported.

Iwouldntdramatizethesituation,saidEgorBorisov,PresidentoftheYakutiaRegion.Theheadofstatehasaschedulewhichcan
bechanged.

PutinhasnotattendedapubliceventsincehisofficialvisittoFinlandonFridayJuly1.

ItisnotthefirsttimethattheRussianleaderhasdisappearedfromthepubliceye.Putinalsocancelledallengagementsand
disappearedfrompublicviewfor11daysinMarchlastyear.

VladimirFrolovonPutinsNewdtente

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinion/article/a-modest-deal-vladimir-putin-s-new-d-tente-op-ed/574322.html

RussianPresidentVladimirPutinisindeconflictionmodewiththeWestafterawildrideoftwoandahalfyearsofmilitary
anddiplomatictensions.

InawiderangingpolicyspeechatabiannualmeetingofRussianambassadorsonJuly1,Putindidnotjustgothroughtheregularlitany
ofcomplaintsovertheWestignoringRussia'sinterests,NATOexpansion,U.S.unilateralism,missiledefenseandoverthrowingregimes
in"colorrevolutions."Heeschewedsaber-rattlingoverNATO'sdecisionstodeployadditionalforcesintheBaltics,calledWestern
countriespartnersincreatinga"broadanti-terroristfront,"andemphasizedRussia'sinterestin"closecooperationwiththeUnitedStates
oninternationalaffairs."

Onlytwoweeksbefore,attheSt.PetersburgInternationalEconomicForum,PutinsaidRussiaacceptedtheUnitedStatesasthe"only
superpower"andwantedtoworkwithit,providedtheUnitedStateskeptitsdemocracylecturestoitself.OnavisittoFinlandafew
daysago,PutinagreedtoholdameetingoftheRussia-NATOCouncilafterNATO'sWarsawsummitthisweek,acceptedNATO's
proposalforpreventingmilitaryairandseaincidentsandinstructedRussia'sdefenseministertoflyRussianmilitaryplanesover
theBalticSeawiththeirtransponderson.

Sinceearly2016,PutinandotherseniorRussianofficialshavebeensignalingMoscow'sinterestinde-escalatingtensionswiththeWest.
TheywanttonormalizerelationsMoscowviewsasgoingbacktopre-Crimea,bracketingitoutasRussiaandtheWestmanagedtodo
afterRussia's2008warwithGeorgia,withoutanyrollbackofRussianpoliciestoexertcontroloverUkraine.

MoscowhasbeentakingstockofitsforcefulpoliciestoreassertRussia'sstatusasaglobalpowerandtorollbacktheexpansion
ofWesterninstitutionsintotheformerSovietspacethatRussiaviewsasitsrightfulsphereofinfluence.Thesepoliciesofmanaged
confrontationwiththeWestoverUkraineandlaterSyriahavebeenwidelypopularwiththedomesticaudienceinRussiaover60
percentthinkRussia'sforeignpolicyissuccessfulandboostedPutin'sdomesticsupporttostratosphericlevels.

Yet,actualpolicyresultshavebeensomewhatunderwhelming.MoscowhasprovenitsabilitytowreckUkrainetopreventitfromjoining
Westernalliances.ButthecostshavebeenenormousbothintermsofWesterneconomicsanctions,diplomaticisolationandaruined
relationshipwithacloseneighbor.Yet,theWesthasrefusedtorecognizeRussia'ssphereofinfluenceandhasignoredcallstofleshout
anewYaltaagreementonthepost-ColdWarsettlement.Moscow'smilitarypositionwithregardtotheWesthasactuallydeterioratedas
NATObeganapplyingtheworst-caseassumptionstoMoscow'sirresponsiblesaber-rattlingandunpredictablebehaviorandbegan
planningforadditionaltroopdeployments,araceMoscowcouldnotwin.ThepolicyofaggressivelydeterringtheUnitedStates
andNATOwasfastapproachingapointofdiminishingreturns.

Russiahasweatheredthesanctions'impactanditseconomydidnotcollapse.Butthesanctionshavebeenlimitedanditbecameclear
thatamoreforcefulWesternresponse,likebansonexportstotheEUandthesuspensionofSWIFTtransactionscouldhaveresulted
inadevastatingblowtoRussia'seconomy,whileapivottoAsiaprovedhardertoachieve.

Moscow'sdaringmilitaryinterventioninSyriain2015succeededinpiercingRussia'sisolationoverUkraineandwassomewhat
breathtakinglyhailedasthecountry'sascensiontotheeliteclubonaparwiththeUnitedStates,capableofdeployingmilitaryforce
abroadtoaffectpoliticaloutcomes.RussiamayhaverescuedSyrianPresidentBasharAssad'sregimefromamilitarydefeat,butits
investmentofbloodandtreasurehasboughtitonlymoreAssadandsomelimitedcooperationwiththeUnitedStates.Now,almost
ayearafteritsintervention,MoscowisstillstuckinSyriaandisonthevergeofowningitsmessofacivilwarIranissharinginthis
investment.Itdesperatelyneedsapoliticalexittodeclarevictoryandgohome,butthatcouldonlybeengineeredthroughcooperation
withtheUnitedStates,Turkey(hencethelatestrapprochement)andSaudiArabia.

VladimirFrolovisapoliticalanalyst.

From: WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>
Senttime: 07/06/201607:24:19PM
To: WayneandStacyAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>
Subject: InternetNotes6July2016
Attachments: IN6July16.docx

InternetNotes6July2016

StanovayaontheregimesfivedilemmasoverBelykh

NobailforBelykh

NovayaGazetaonthesilovikywar(FSBvs.FSOMurov/MikhalchenkoThesilovikycadresshakeup)

Putincancelsallmeetingsforthenextweek

VladimirFrolovonPutinsNewdtente

StanovayaontheregimesfivedilemmasoverBelykh

http://slon.ru/posts/70141

ItsapparentthatthefundamentalrulesofthegamearechangingThedirectionvlastwilltakedependsonhowtheregimesolves
somedilemmas

#1:TheBlackcashboxaprivilegeorbusinessasusual?BelykhclaimsthatthemoneyhewaspickingupataMoscow
restaurantwasnotabribe,butoff-the-bookscashforregionaldevelopmentInRussia,suchablackcashbox,likebribery,is
inevitable.Thewholeverticalofpowerrunsoffsuchcash.Thequestionishowitisorganizedmoreexperiencedplayerssetup
charitablefundsthatbusinesscontributesto.Inothercases,thecashispassedalonginabag.Backin2007,journalistNatalia
MorarwroteaboutthePresidentialAdministrationpassingalongcashtopoliticalparties.Belykh,asaleaderoftheUnionofRight
Forces,hadtoknowaboutthat.Sotheregimeisfacedwiththequestionofwhetherblackcashboxesshouldcontinueifso,
thenwhohastherighttomakeuseofthem?Insteadofbusinessasusual,willtheybeaprivilegefewareentitledto?Itsclearthat
neitherPutinnortheSKhavethoughtthisthroughwhatshappeningnowisjustaconsequenceoftheregimeaimingtosurvive.
Butitsobviouswewillseemoresuchincidentsinthenexttwo-threeyears.

#2:Aretheliberalsafifthcolumnorapartnerofvlast?ThedifferencebetweenBelykhandgovernorswhowerearrestedearlier
KhoroshavinandGayzeristhatBelykhwaspartofabalancingelementamongtheokhranitelyandthesystemicliberals.
Belykhcametopowerin2009,atatimetheKremlinwasplayingagamewiththeurbanmiddleclass.Belykhsarrestisa
seriousblowtothattime(thetimeofSurkov)andeffortstoincorporatethepotentialnesoglasnikhintothesystem.Belykhwasa
linkbetweenamaturingBolotnayaandtheKremlin.Now,withpressureonallthosewholooktotheWest,allsuchlinksareno
longeroperative.ThesignificanceofBelykhsarrestisbeingunder-estimated.Thesilovikyarehopingtogoafterthosethey
considerpartofthefifthcolumn,andpeoplelikeSurkov,Kudrin,Gref,Chubays,Medvedevandhiscirclearevulnerable
(Comment:Iwascommentingonbalancingtheotherday,thinkingthatPutinsrecentmovestoboostZolotovand
apparentlyweakenotherpowerdepartmentsliketheFSBandtheMVDmightworktheoppositeofwhatheintended
preventinganypalacecoupslesstrustedsilovikymightgetinvolvedinduringaseriouscrisis.Ialsonotedthat
Putinhadattemptedsomemodestbalancingmeasures,likesendingtheFSKNandtheFMStotheMVDas
compensationforthelossoftheInternalTroops.AndIthoughtthatKudrinscomingbackintothepicturemighthave
beenabalancingstep(partlyone)meanttocalmdownthesystemicliberalsbutcampaigns,announcedornot,
haveamomentumoftheirown.IdoubttheimplicationsofarrestingBelykhwerethoughtthroughandweread
yesterdaythatPutinmaynothaveevenknownthatBelykhwouldbeingarrestedbeforehand(Stanovayatakesupthe
ideathatPutindoesnotgiveagoaheadoneachcasebelow.Hertakeseemsaboutrighttomespeakingofnot
givingagoaheadbeforehand,IdontbelievePutinapprovedtheNemtsovkilling,either).Theplayerstendtobe
reactive,lessthoughtfulchessplayersthanmostimagine.SoBelykhsarrest,whichcouldbeviewedasanaturalstep
inawaveofmeasurestoprotecttheregimefromanypossibleweaklinks,canbecomeaproblem.Wealsoread
(again)yesterdaythattheFSBUSBsFeoktistovwasinchargeoftheoperationaimedatBelykhandOrlovahas
claimedthatZolotovistheprotectorandunofficialoverseeroftheFSBUSBfromthe29Junenotes:[Comment:We
havereadelsewherethatZolotovsolddepartmentthePresidentialSecurityService,partoftheFSO,wasbeingusedbyPutinasacadres
reserve(see,forinstance,the2Junenotes)andIvearguedthatZolotovsrisemakessenseinviewofthecrisis,Putinssuspicions,elitefears,
andPutinsnarrowingclosecircle(Seemycommentsinyesterdaysnotes).Iftheauthorofthearticleabove,KarinaOrlova,iscorrectand
ZolotovisoverseerandprotectoroftheFSBUSB,thenitalsomakessensethatthedirectoratewouldbeusedtopurgeuntrustworthy(or
potentiallyuntrustworthy)figures(SeemytakeonBelykhsarrestinthe27Junenotes),andwouldgrowininfluenceandexpanditsterritory.
OneofoursourcesclaimedthatYakovlevwasaBortnikovprotginthatcase,ifZolotovreallyisthepowerbehindtheUSB,Yakovlevs
departurefromFSBSEBmakessenseinthecontextoftheFSBvsFSObattle(see,forinstance,the2Junenotes)andthetensionsfollowingthe
Nemtsovmurder.]).Itisthatpartoftheestablishmentthatisunderpressure.TheonlypersontheycanappealtoisPutin.The
Belykhexampleisatrumpcardinthegameagainsttheliberals.

#3Aregovernorselitesorordinaryexecutives?Inabitmorethanayear,threegovernorshavebeenarrested.Onceisan
exception,twiceatendency,thethirdtimearule.Wearewitnessingacriticallyimportanttransformationwithintheregime.The
governorsweremadepartofthevertical,thenbecameakeysupportgroupfortheregime,andnowareavulnerablepartofthe
system.Agovernorsposthasbecomepoliticallydangerous.Acriticaldelimitationbetweentheverytopofthesystem,withits
privilegesandimmunity,andtherestisbeingmade(Comment:Seemyremarksaboveonthenarrowingcircleoftrust).This
ishavinganimpactonnotonlythegovernors,butmembersofUnitedRussia,deputies,highly-placedofficials(includingdeputy
ministers),andtheheadsofmajorcompanies.Thecompetitionwithintheeliteforbenefitsisincreasing,whilethenumberof
availablebenefitsisdecreasing.

Questionis,iftheKremlinnolongervaluesthegovernors,thenhowcanitprovideforpoliticalcontrol?Upuntilnow,nomatter
whowasappointedgovernor,theKremlincouldbesureofloyalty,dependingonloyalpersons(whichmeantamemberofthe
systemicoppositioncouldbecomeagovernorComment:AnotherinterestingpointtoponderasInotedearlier,the
KremlinseffortstoassertpoweroverthesilovikyviatheNationalGuardandZolotovsrisecouldbackfire,producing
thekindofdisloyaltytheKremlinmayhavesuspectedwaslurkingamongthepowerdepartments.Thesamecould
betrueofthegovernorsnotnow,theywillbehunkeringdownandtryingtoprotectthemselves,butinaserious
political/social/economiccrisis).ThegovernorspostinrelationtotheKremlinisbecomingmoretechnical.
#4Thesilovikyaretheyaninstrumentoranindependentforce?ThepoliticalfieldinRussiahasbeenmonopolized.Thereal
powerstruggleisinanarrowcircleofpeopleclosetoPutin.Thepublicspherehasbeende-politicized,butanon-publicsortof
politicsisaliveontheperiphery.ThedomesticpoliticalsphereisgraduallybeingdividedbetweenthePresidentialAdministrations
domesticpoliticsdepartment(whichhandlespoliticaldecorations)andthesiloviky,whoaretakinguponthemselvestheroleof
scenarist.Soarethesilovikyindependentactorsoraninstrumentforperformingtasksassignedfromabove?
EkhoMoskvyChiefEditorAlekseyVenediktov,whoisalsoafriendofBelykhs,tellushowPutincouldhavesanctionedthe
arresthesimplysaidFollowthelaw,whichiswhathesupposedlysaidbeforethearrestofKhodorkovskiy.Butthesituation
haschangedin2003,Putinwasgoingafterhispoliticalenemies,nowhemoreoftenleavesituptothesilovikytomakeacall.
Anexclusiveprecedentin2003canbecomeroutinein2016ifthedemi-urgestaysoutofit.In2003,thesilovikytookon
precisiontasks.Todayitismorelikeaconveyorbelt.Lawenforcementisnowlookingovertheentirepoliticalclass.Theidea
thatthereisapacketofkompromatoneveryoneandonlythepresidentcangivethego-aheadonacaseislosingforce.Today,the
presidentdoesntgiveago-ahead,butstillhastheprivilegeofputtingthebrakeson,somethingthatcanhappenonlyisheisaware
ofwhatsgoingon.YoucantcallPutin?Thentheymaycomeforyou.

#5Themostinterestingquestionofallishowfarcanthesystemgoinprosecutingitsown?Whereistheborderbetweenthose
whohaveimmunityandthosewhodont?Areministersatriskofbeingarrested?Howdoesthesystemrecognizethosewhose
arrestwoulddestabilizethesystemitselforthosewhobyremainingfreethreatende-stabilization?Asthecircleofpotentialvictims
expands,thestatesrepressivestructuresgrowstrongerThetendencytorepressiongrows,asrepressionbecomeslessselective
andlawenforcementbecomesmoreexperiencedatpracticingrepression.Someseetheeconomiccrisisasgivingliberalizationa
chance,butitcouldhavetheoppositeeffectandintimetherepressivepowercouldgrowstrongerthanthoseconsideredthe
foundersofthesystem.

NobailforBelykh

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/russian-governor-held-on-corruption-charges-refused-bail/574422.html

AMoscowcourthasrefusedtobailKirovregiongovernorNikitaBelykh,whowasarrestedlastmonthoncorruptioncharges,theTASS
newsagencyreportedWednesday.

Belykhslawyershadappealedtothecourtforthepoliticiantobeplacedunderhousearrestorreleasedonbailof28millionrubles
($430,000),TASSreported.

Theinvestigationhasnogroundsforkeepinghimunderarrestbutthecourttooknonotice,saidVadimProkhorov,Belykhslawyer.
ProkhorovsaidthathisclientshealthwasdeterioratinginprisonandmaintainedthatBelykhwasnotabribe-taker.Healsotold
journaliststhatBelykhwaspreparedtogototheEuropeanCourtofHumanRightstoappealhisdetentionandtoclearhisname,TASS
reported.

BelykhhasbeenheldinpretrialdetentionsincehewasarrestedinaMoscowrestaurantlastmonthandchargedwithreceivingbribes
worth400thousandeuros($442thousand).Themoneywasallegedlymeanttoensurethegovernorpromotedtheinterestsoftwo
companiesintheKirovregion.

Belykh,aformeroppositionpartyleader,haspubliclysaidthatthecaseagainsthimwasnotpoliticallymotivated.Hemaintainshis
innocence,claimingthathereceivedthemoneylegallytospendonservicesfortheKirovregion.

AhostofliberalpoliticalfigureshavecomeoutinsupportofBelykhsincehisarrest,includingtheleaderoftheYablokoparty,Grigory
Yavlinsky,thechiefeditorofradiostationEkhoMoskvyandtheDumamemberDmitryGudkov.

BelykhisthethirdgovernorofaRussianregiontobearrestedoncorruptionchargesinthelasttwoyears.

NovayaGazetaonthesilovikywar(FSBvs.FSOMurov/MikhalchenkoThesilovikycadresshakeup)

http://www.novayagazeta.ru/inquests/73735.html

Ahighly-placedFSBofficertellsNovayathatBelykhsarrestexceededtheboundsofunderstoodauthorityusually,anymoves
involvingapersonappointedbythepresidenthavetobeclearedbythefirstperson,butinBelykhscaseeventheoperational
workbeforethearrestwasnotclearedaheadoftimewiththepresident.Informationwasgatheredunderthecoverofgathering
materialonNavalniy.ThesourcetellsNovayathatformonthsnow,aconflictbetweenFSBers,ledbySergeyIvanov,andFSO
peoplewhowereheadedformallyandinformallybynowex-FSOchiefYevgeniyMurov,hasbeenunderway.Thesourcesays
thatthecreationoftheNationalGuardwasavictoryfortheFSOsideoftheconflict.Itsnotthemobthatweareafraidof,says
thesource,buteachother(Comment:Shulmansaidsomethingsimilarbackinthe27Maynotes).Andthereisabasisfor
fearthemostseriousfunctiongrantedtotheNationalGuardistheoperational-investigativefunction.Theresnoguaranteethat
theNatsguardwillnotusethatfunctiontogoafterFSBpersonnelpostedtoministries,intheregions,andinmajorbanksand
enterprises.TheFSOalsopostsitscadresoutsideserviceeverygovernorsoffice,forexample,hasanFSOofficerkeeping
watch,maybeasheadofthegovernorsapparatus,ormaybeasanaideortakingoverthegovernorspost(Comment:Thats
areferencetoaformerFSOman,Dyumin,takingoverasTulagovernor).

FSOsourcesconfirmthattheFSBclantookthecreationoftheNatsguardhard.AtthesametimetheNatsguardwasbeing
created,therewassomelobbying(Comment:Whodidthelobbying?)tocreateanewMinistryofStateSecurity(MGB)that
wouldincludetheFSB,theFSO,andtheSVR.Murov,however,managedtodefendtheindependenceoftheFSO.Withoutthe
FSO,creatinganMGBdidntmakesense.ButthewheelswerealreadyturningoncreatingtheNatsguard.TheFSBclancould
notsitbyandwatchtheFSOgrowstronger,soablowagainstthemwasdeliveredon16MarchwhenDmitriyMikhalchenkowas
arrested.TheFSBknowsfullwellthatMurovwasMikhalchenkospatron.MurovalsosupposedlyintroducedMikhalchenkoto
Putin,recommendinghimasabusinessmanwhogenerouslysupportedthepresidentsinitiatives.Mikhalchenkowasactually
arrestedtwicethefirsttime,theofficerheadingtheoperationcalledMurovandMikhalchenkowassubsequentlyreleased.He
wasreprimandedfordoingsoandagainarrestedMikhalchenko.Afewdayslater,theFSBreportedtoPutinaboutthearrestand
theroleoftheFSOclaninMikhalchenkosbusinessschemes.Murovsfatewaspracticallydecidedonthatveryday.

AnotherFSBvictorywastheliquidationoftheFSKNViktorIvanovwasaheavyweightintheFSOclan.TheFSBthenmoved
togetridofFSO-connectedpeoplewithintheFSBapparatus,themostprominentonebeingtheheadofDirectorateKofFSB
EconomicSecurity(FSBSEB),ViktorVoronin(Comment:Therewasabitinthe9JunenotesthatclaimedVoroninwas
closetoViktorIvanov.IwonderedwhetherthefateofIvanovwashavinganimpactonpeopleconnectedtohimlike
LarisaKalanda).VoroninsdeparturewasfollowedbymuchtalkofmoreturnoveratFSB.Butcadreturnoverhasbeen
draggedoutsomesaythattheFSBclangrewnervousandmadeafatalmistakebyarrestingBelykh.BothFSBandFSO
sourcessaythattheKirovFSBoverplayeditshandandexceededitsunderstoodauthoritybymakingthearrest.Firstofall,
PutinwasnotinformedabouttheoperationalexperimentagainstBelykh.

ItcouldbethataftertheBelykharrest,anumberofchangesthatwereintheworksatFSBSEBwerehalted.IvanTkachevofthe
6thDirectorateofFSBInternalSecurity(FSBUSB)wassupposedtotakeoverasheadofDirectorateKatFSBSEB,butis
nowsupposedlyslatedforthe1s tdeputyspot.Thewordisthattheheadofthedirectoratewillbeitscurrent1s tdeputychief,
AndreyYegorov.Otherchangesthathavebeentalkedaboutwonthappen.

Comment:Alright,letsseeifwecanmakesomesenseofthisOntheMGBstory,letsbackuptothenotesfrom20
JunethematerialinthosenotesonforminganewMGBorMinistryforPublicSecurity(MOB)seemedtopointtoa
strengtheningofZolotovsposition,withtheNatsguardbeingusedtopurgetheoldpowerstructuresandscreen
officersforpositionsintheMGB.ThematerialfromNovayasaysthatMurovopposedtheMGBprojectandwasable
tosavehisFSO,whichundercuttheMBG/MOBplan.WeusuallythinkofMurovandZolotovasallies,butoneof
oursourceshadZolotovdriftingawayfromhisoldbossandsettingupshoponhisownasNationalGuardchief
(AlekseyMakarkinclaimedinthe2JunenotesthatMurovsdeparturewasavictoryforZolotovasMurovwas
replacedbyKochnev,amanfromtheservicethatZolotovhadheaded,thePresidentialSecurityService.Onereason
IvehadZolotovasabigwinner,bigenoughtoreallyupsetthebalanceamongthesiloviky,isthatsomeofour
sources,Makarkinwasone,havesaidthatPutinisntusingtheFSOasawholeforacadresreserve,hesusingthe
Zolotov-connectedPresidentialSecurityServiceforthat),somaybehesupportedtheMGB/MOBoperation.
Nevertheless,Murovisgonesowhatkindofcloutdoeshehavenowthatcouldpreventthemergergoingforward?
ItwouldmakesensethatiftheendgamewasaMGB/MOBstaffedwithpeoplescreenedbyZolotovthattheFSBand
Bortnikovwouldopposeit.WhileMurovsleavingmayatleasthavenotbeenopposedbyZolotov,maybethat
retirementandthedeep-sixingoftheMGB/MOBprojectwascompensationtotheFSBforthecreationofthe
Natsguard,whichpracticallyallofoursourceshaveseenasamovethatweakenstheFSB.Ofcourse,thatdoesnot
meanthatPutinisntinfavorofapurgeandvettingofthepowerstructures,aprocessthatmightbesupervisedby
Zolotov.Wellhavetowaitandseeaboutthat.IsuspectitwonthappenthatPutinwillholdback.Thereareplenty
ofotherswhomightopposesuchasuper-concentrationofpowerintheNatsguardandIvewrittenthatmovesmeant
topreventapalacecoupcouldbackfireifthereisaperceptionthatoneplayerisgettingtoostrong.

IvewrittenonMikhalchenkosarrestlikelybeingasignthatMurovwasweakened(Seethe21and31March
notes).Mikhalchenkoalsoturnedupinthe30Marchand26,27,and31Mayand7,9,and10Junenotes.Abitin
the9JunenotesfromKommersanthadVoroninasclosetoMikhalchenko(Andwesawaclaiminthosesamenotes
thatRomodanovskiyofthenow-defunctFMSwasaprotgofVIvanovaswell).Therewassomeconfusionabout
Mikhalchenkoskryshainthe9and10Junenotes,IwentoverapiececlaimingthatMikhalchenkowasinvolvedin
thekillingofRomanTsepovinSt.Petersburgbackin2004.Inthatscenario,Mikhalchenkowasconnectedtothe
FSB,whileTsepovwasclosetotheFSOpeople,especiallyZolotov,andthe(reportedly)ViktorIvanov-connected
Romodanovskiy,who,likeZolotov,attendedTsepovsfuneral.

BothTsepovandMikhalchenkohadawebofconnectionstovariouspowerdepartments.ButTsepovstieswere
strongestwithFSOpeople,apparently.Connectionschangeovertimeandoverlap.Upuntilearly2004,Bortnikov
wasinSt.PetersburgmaybeheandMikhalchenkoestablishedafirmrelationship,whileMikhalchnekoalsohad
somelinesouttotheFSOpeople.Couldbethatare-alignmentofkryshastookplacesometimeafterTsepovs
murderandMikhalchenkossteppingintotakeoverTsepovsnicheintheNorthernCapital.Anothercomplicating
factorasmentionedabove,RomodanovskiywenttoTsepovsfuneral.Butabitinthe9Junenotessaidhewasclose
toMikhalchenkoandcouldbeimplicatedinthecaseagainsthim.

OnTkachevheisfromtheFSBUSB.HewassupposedtotakeoveratFSBSEB(See,forinstance,the10June
notes).SeemycommentsaboveaboutOrlovastakeontheFSBUSBbeinginZolotovssphereofinfluence.
Yakovlev,whowassaidtobeaBortnikovprotg,wasreportedlyreplacedatFSBSEBbyInternalSecuritys
Korolev.DidKorolevinfactgetthejob?Abitinthe14Junenotesclaimedthathehadalreadytakenoverasheadof
FSBSEB.ThatsamebitsaidthatKorolevwasresponsibleforthecriminalcasethatcosttheFSBSEBsheadof
DirectorateK,ViktorVoronin,hispost,aswellasheadofFSBSEBYakovlevlosinghis.Morechangeswere
supposedlyontheway,butNovayaclaimstheywonthappen.Sothemaneuveringiscontinuing.

Putincancelsallmeetingsforthenextweek

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/putin-cancels-all-meetings-for-a-week/574433.html

RussianPresidentVladimirPutinhascancelledallplannedengagementsfortherestoftheweek,theRBCnewspaperreported
Wednesday,citingKremlinsources.

Thereasonsforthecancellationsisasyetunknown.KremlinspokespersonDmitryPeskovtoldjournaliststhatnoneofPutins
scheduledtripshadbeendecidedlyconfirmed.

AStateCouncilmeetinginAltaiwhichPutinhadbeenduetoattendwascancelledonTuesdayandhasnowbeenindefinitely
postponed.HisappearanceataneventinYakutiaonThursdaywasalsocancelled,RBCreported.

Iwouldntdramatizethesituation,saidEgorBorisov,PresidentoftheYakutiaRegion.Theheadofstatehasaschedulewhichcanbe
changed.

PutinhasnotattendedapubliceventsincehisofficialvisittoFinlandonFridayJuly1.

ItisnotthefirsttimethattheRussianleaderhasdisappearedfromthepubliceye.Putinalsocancelledallengagementsanddisappeared
frompublicviewfor11daysinMarchlastyear.

VladimirFrolovonPutinsNewdtente

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinion/article/a-modest-deal-vladimir-putin-s-new-d-tente-op-ed/574322.html
RussianPresidentVladimirPutinisindeconflictionmodewiththeWestafterawildrideoftwoandahalfyearsofmilitaryanddiplomatic
tensions.

InawiderangingpolicyspeechatabiannualmeetingofRussianambassadorsonJuly1,Putindidnotjustgothroughtheregularlitany
ofcomplaintsovertheWestignoringRussia'sinterests,NATOexpansion,U.S.unilateralism,missiledefenseandoverthrowingregimes
in"colorrevolutions."Heeschewedsaber-rattlingoverNATO'sdecisionstodeployadditionalforcesintheBaltics,calledWestern
countriespartnersincreatinga"broadanti-terroristfront,"andemphasizedRussia'sinterestin"closecooperationwiththeUnitedStates
oninternationalaffairs."

Onlytwoweeksbefore,attheSt.PetersburgInternationalEconomicForum,PutinsaidRussiaacceptedtheUnitedStatesasthe"only
superpower"andwantedtoworkwithit,providedtheUnitedStateskeptitsdemocracylecturestoitself.OnavisittoFinlandafewdays
ago,PutinagreedtoholdameetingoftheRussia-NATOCouncilafterNATO'sWarsawsummitthisweek,acceptedNATO'sproposal
forpreventingmilitaryairandseaincidentsandinstructedRussia'sdefenseministertoflyRussianmilitaryplanesovertheBalticSeawith
theirtransponderson.

Sinceearly2016,PutinandotherseniorRussianofficialshavebeensignalingMoscow'sinterestinde-escalatingtensionswiththeWest.
TheywanttonormalizerelationsMoscowviewsasgoingbacktopre-Crimea,bracketingitoutasRussiaandtheWestmanagedtodo
afterRussia's2008warwithGeorgia,withoutanyrollbackofRussianpoliciestoexertcontroloverUkraine.

MoscowhasbeentakingstockofitsforcefulpoliciestoreassertRussia'sstatusasaglobalpowerandtorollbacktheexpansion
ofWesterninstitutionsintotheformerSovietspacethatRussiaviewsasitsrightfulsphereofinfluence.Thesepoliciesofmanaged
confrontationwiththeWestoverUkraineandlaterSyriahavebeenwidelypopularwiththedomesticaudienceinRussiaover60
percentthinkRussia'sforeignpolicyissuccessfulandboostedPutin'sdomesticsupporttostratosphericlevels.

Yet,actualpolicyresultshavebeensomewhatunderwhelming.MoscowhasprovenitsabilitytowreckUkrainetopreventitfromjoining
Westernalliances.ButthecostshavebeenenormousbothintermsofWesterneconomicsanctions,diplomaticisolationandaruined
relationshipwithacloseneighbor.Yet,theWesthasrefusedtorecognizeRussia'ssphereofinfluenceandhasignoredcallstofleshout
anewYaltaagreementonthepost-ColdWarsettlement.Moscow'smilitarypositionwithregardtotheWesthasactuallydeterioratedas
NATObeganapplyingtheworst-caseassumptionstoMoscow'sirresponsiblesaber-rattlingandunpredictablebehaviorandbeganplanning
foradditionaltroopdeployments,araceMoscowcouldnotwin.ThepolicyofaggressivelydeterringtheUnitedStatesandNATOwas
fastapproachingapointofdiminishingreturns.

Russiahasweatheredthesanctions'impactanditseconomydidnotcollapse.Butthesanctionshavebeenlimitedanditbecameclearthat
amoreforcefulWesternresponse,likebansonexportstotheEUandthesuspensionofSWIFTtransactionscouldhaveresultedina
devastatingblowtoRussia'seconomy,whileapivottoAsiaprovedhardertoachieve.

Moscow'sdaringmilitaryinterventioninSyriain2015succeededinpiercingRussia'sisolationoverUkraineandwassomewhat
breathtakinglyhailedasthecountry'sascensiontotheeliteclubonaparwiththeUnitedStates,capableofdeployingmilitaryforceabroad
toaffectpoliticaloutcomes.RussiamayhaverescuedSyrianPresidentBasharAssad'sregimefromamilitarydefeat,butitsinvestment
ofbloodandtreasurehasboughtitonlymoreAssadandsomelimitedcooperationwiththeUnitedStates.Now,almostayearafterits
intervention,MoscowisstillstuckinSyriaandisonthevergeofowningitsmessofacivilwarIranissharinginthisinvestment.It
desperatelyneedsapoliticalexittodeclarevictoryandgohome,butthatcouldonlybeengineeredthroughcooperationwiththeUnited
States,Turkey(hencethelatestrapprochement)andSaudiArabia.

VladimirFrolovisapoliticalanalyst.

From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 07/07/201612:31:46PM
To: PeterReddaway<pbreddaway@gmail.com>
Cc: WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>
Subject: Re:InternetNotes6July2016

Iratheragreewiththis.Heispast70and.moretothepoint,theexposureandsubsequentarrestofMikhalchenko&otherswasa
signhewaslosinginfluence.IdontbuytheNovayapieceonthisscore.

Thatsaid,hehaslandedonhisfeet:

http://www.rbc.ru/rbcfreenews/577e3f409a794728a1ad54e6

OnJul7,2016,at11:22AM,PeterReddaway<pbreddaway@gmail.com>wrote:

T
hanks,Wayne,fortheilluminatingpieceonMikhalchenkoetalinyournotesofyesterday,
whichI'veonlyjustread.Muchofitisovermyhead,butonecommentthatmightbeusefulis
thatMurov'sinfluencemaynowbezero.Hemustbeabout70,andIcan'tthinkofanyfigures
underPutinwho'vemaintainedinfluenceatthatage.

Best,

Peter

OnWed,Jul6,2016at6:52PM,WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>wrote:

InternetNotes6July2016

StanovayaontheregimesfivedilemmasoverBelykh.1

NobailforBelykh.3

NovayaGazetaonthesilovikywar(FSBvs.FSOMurov/MikhalchenkoThesilovikycadresshakeup)4

Putincancelsallmeetingsforthenextweek.7

VladimirFrolovonPutinsNewdtente.7

StanovayaontheregimesfivedilemmasoverBelykh

http://slon.ru/posts/70141

ItsapparentthatthefundamentalrulesofthegamearechangingThedirectionvlastwilltakedependsonhowthe
regimesolvessomedilemmas
#1:TheBlackcashboxaprivilegeorbusinessasusual?Belykhclaimsthatthemoneyhewaspickingupata
Moscowrestaurantwasnotabribe,butoff-the-bookscashforregionaldevelopmentInRussia,suchablack
cashbox,likebribery,isinevitable.Thewholeverticalofpowerrunsoffsuchcash.Thequestionishowitis
organizedmoreexperiencedplayerssetupcharitablefundsthatbusinesscontributesto.Inothercases,thecash
ispassedalonginabag.Backin2007,journalistNataliaMorarwroteaboutthePresidentialAdministrationpassing
alongcashtopoliticalparties.Belykh,asaleaderoftheUnionofRightForces,hadtoknowaboutthat.Sothe
regimeisfacedwiththequestionofwhetherblackcashboxesshouldcontinueifso,thenwhohastherightto
makeuseofthem?Insteadofbusinessasusual,willtheybeaprivilegefewareentitledto?Itsclearthatneither
PutinnortheSKhavethoughtthisthroughwhatshappeningnowisjustaconsequenceoftheregimeaimingto
survive.Butitsobviouswewillseemoresuchincidentsinthenexttwo-threeyears.
#2:Aretheliberalsafifthcolumnorapartnerofvlast?ThedifferencebetweenBelykhandgovernorswhowere
arrestedearlierKhoroshavinandGayzeristhatBelykhwaspartofabalancingelementamongtheokhranitely
andthesystemicliberals.Belykhcametopowerin2009,atatimetheKremlinwasplayingagamewiththe
urbanmiddleclass.Belykhsarrestisaseriousblowtothattime(thetimeofSurkov)andeffortstoincorporate
thepotentialnesoglasnikhintothesystem.BelykhwasalinkbetweenamaturingBolotnayaandtheKremlin.
Now,withpressureonallthosewholooktotheWest,allsuchlinksarenolongeroperative.Thesignificanceof
Belykhsarrestisbeingunder-estimated.Thesilovikyarehopingtogoafterthosetheyconsiderpartofthefifth
column,andpeoplelikeSurkov,Kudrin,Gref,Chubays,Medvedevandhiscirclearevulnerable(Comment:I
wascommentingonbalancingtheotherday,thinkingthatPutinsrecentmovestoboostZolotovand
apparentlyweakenotherpowerdepartmentsliketheFSBandtheMVDmightworktheoppositeofwhat
heintendedpreventinganypalacecoupslesstrustedsilovikymightgetinvolvedinduringaserious
crisis.IalsonotedthatPutinhadattemptedsomemodestbalancingmeasures,likesendingtheFSKN
andtheFMStotheMVDascompensationforthelossoftheInternalTroops.AndIthoughtthat
Kudrinscomingbackintothepicturemighthavebeenabalancingstep(partlyone)meanttocalmdown
thesystemicliberalsbutcampaigns,announcedornot,haveamomentumoftheirown.Idoubtthe
implicationsofarrestingBelykhwerethoughtthroughandwereadyesterdaythatPutinmaynothave
evenknownthatBelykhwouldbeingarrestedbeforehand(StanovayatakesuptheideathatPutindoes
notgiveagoaheadoneachcasebelow.Hertakeseemsaboutrighttomespeakingofnotgivingago
aheadbeforehand,IdontbelievePutinapprovedtheNemtsovkilling,either).Theplayerstendtobe
reactive,lessthoughtfulchessplayersthanmostimagine.SoBelykhsarrest,whichcouldbeviewedas
anaturalstepinawaveofmeasurestoprotecttheregimefromanypossibleweaklinks,canbecomea
problem.Wealsoread(again)yesterdaythattheFSBUSBsFeoktistovwasinchargeoftheoperation
aimedatBelykhandOrlovahasclaimedthatZolotovistheprotectorandunofficialoverseerofthe
FSBUSBfromthe29Junenotes:[Comment:WehavereadelsewherethatZolotovsolddepartmentthePresidential
SecurityService,partoftheFSO,wasbeingusedbyPutinasacadresreserve(see,forinstance,the2Junenotes)andIve
arguedthatZolotovsrisemakessenseinviewofthecrisis,Putinssuspicions,elitefears,andPutinsnarrowingclosecircle
(Seemycommentsinyesterdaysnotes).Iftheauthorofthearticleabove,KarinaOrlova,iscorrectandZolotovisoverseerand
protectoroftheFSBUSB,thenitalsomakessensethatthedirectoratewouldbeusedtopurgeuntrustworthy(orpotentially
untrustworthy)figures(SeemytakeonBelykhsarrestinthe27Junenotes),andwouldgrowininfluenceandexpandits
territory.OneofoursourcesclaimedthatYakovlevwasaBortnikovprotginthatcase,ifZolotovreallyisthepowerbehind
theUSB,YakovlevsdeparturefromFSBSEBmakessenseinthecontextoftheFSBvsFSObattle(see,forinstance,the2June
notes)andthetensionsfollowingtheNemtsovmurder.]).Itisthatpartoftheestablishmentthatisunderpressure.The
onlypersontheycanappealtoisPutin.TheBelykhexampleisatrumpcardinthegameagainsttheliberals.

#3Aregovernorselitesorordinaryexecutives?Inabitmorethanayear,threegovernorshavebeenarrested.
Onceisanexception,twiceatendency,thethirdtimearule.Wearewitnessingacriticallyimportanttransformation
withintheregime.Thegovernorsweremadepartofthevertical,thenbecameakeysupportgroupfortheregime,
andnowareavulnerablepartofthesystem.Agovernorsposthasbecomepoliticallydangerous.Acritical
delimitationbetweentheverytopofthesystem,withitsprivilegesandimmunity,andtherestisbeingmade
(Comment:Seemyremarksaboveonthenarrowingcircleoftrust).Thisishavinganimpactonnotonlythe
governors,butmembersofUnitedRussia,deputies,highly-placedofficials(includingdeputyministers),andthe
headsofmajorcompanies.Thecompetitionwithintheeliteforbenefitsisincreasing,whilethenumberofavailable
benefitsisdecreasing.
Questionis,iftheKremlinnolongervaluesthegovernors,thenhowcanitprovideforpoliticalcontrol?Upuntil
now,nomatterwhowasappointedgovernor,theKremlincouldbesureofloyalty,dependingonloyalpersons
(whichmeantamemberofthesystemicoppositioncouldbecomeagovernorComment:Anotherinteresting
pointtoponderasInotedearlier,theKremlinseffortstoassertpoweroverthesilovikyviathe
NationalGuardandZolotovsrisecouldbackfire,producingthekindofdisloyaltytheKremlinmayhave
suspectedwaslurkingamongthepowerdepartments.Thesamecouldbetrueofthegovernorsnot
now,theywillbehunkeringdownandtryingtoprotectthemselves,butinaserious
political/social/economiccrisis).ThegovernorspostinrelationtotheKremlinisbecomingmoretechnical.

#4Thesilovikyaretheyaninstrumentoranindependentforce?ThepoliticalfieldinRussiahasbeen
monopolized.TherealpowerstruggleisinanarrowcircleofpeopleclosetoPutin.Thepublicspherehasbeende-
politicized,butanon-publicsortofpoliticsisaliveontheperiphery.Thedomesticpoliticalsphereisgraduallybeing
dividedbetweenthePresidentialAdministrationsdomesticpoliticsdepartment(whichhandlespolitical
decorations)andthesiloviky,whoaretakinguponthemselvestheroleofscenarist.Soarethesiloviky
independentactorsoraninstrumentforperformingtasksassignedfromabove?
EkhoMoskvyChiefEditorAlekseyVenediktov,whoisalsoafriendofBelykhs,tellushowPutincouldhave
sanctionedthearresthesimplysaidFollowthelaw,whichiswhathesupposedlysaidbeforethearrestof
Khodorkovskiy.Butthesituationhaschangedin2003,Putinwasgoingafterhispoliticalenemies,nowhemore
oftenleavesituptothesilovikytomakeacall.Anexclusiveprecedentin2003canbecomeroutinein2016ifthe
demi-urgestaysoutofit.In2003,thesilovikytookonprecisiontasks.Todayitismorelikeaconveyorbelt.
Lawenforcementisnowlookingovertheentirepoliticalclass.Theideathatthereisapacketofkompromaton
everyoneandonlythepresidentcangivethego-aheadonacaseislosingforce.Today,thepresidentdoesntgivea
go-ahead,butstillhastheprivilegeofputtingthebrakeson,somethingthatcanhappenonlyisheisawareofwhats
goingon.YoucantcallPutin?Thentheymaycomeforyou.
#5Themostinterestingquestionofallishowfarcanthesystemgoinprosecutingitsown?Whereistheborder
betweenthosewhohaveimmunityandthosewhodont?Areministersatriskofbeingarrested?Howdoesthe
systemrecognizethosewhosearrestwoulddestabilizethesystemitselforthosewhobyremainingfreethreatende-
stabilization?Asthecircleofpotentialvictimsexpands,thestatesrepressivestructuresgrowstrongerThe
tendencytorepressiongrows,asrepressionbecomeslessselectiveandlawenforcementbecomesmore
experiencedatpracticingrepression.Someseetheeconomiccrisisasgivingliberalizationachance,butitcould
havetheoppositeeffectandintimetherepressivepowercouldgrowstrongerthanthoseconsideredthefounders
ofthesystem.

NobailforBelykh

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/russian-governor-held-on-corruption-charges-refused-
bail/574422.html

AMoscowcourthasrefusedtobailKirovregiongovernorNikitaBelykh,whowasarrestedlastmonthoncorruption
charges,theTASSnewsagencyreportedWednesday.

Belykhslawyershadappealedtothecourtforthepoliticiantobeplacedunderhousearrestorreleasedonbailof28
millionrubles($430,000),TASSreported.

Theinvestigationhasnogroundsforkeepinghimunderarrestbutthecourttooknonotice,saidVadimProkhorov,
Belykhslawyer.ProkhorovsaidthathisclientshealthwasdeterioratinginprisonandmaintainedthatBelykhwasnota
bribe-taker.HealsotoldjournaliststhatBelykhwaspreparedtogototheEuropeanCourtofHumanRightstoappeal
hisdetentionandtoclearhisname,TASSreported.

BelykhhasbeenheldinpretrialdetentionsincehewasarrestedinaMoscowrestaurantlastmonthandchargedwith
receivingbribesworth400thousandeuros($442thousand).Themoneywasallegedlymeanttoensurethegovernor
promotedtheinterestsoftwocompaniesintheKirovregion.

Belykh,aformeroppositionpartyleader,haspubliclysaidthatthecaseagainsthimwasnotpoliticallymotivated.He
maintainshisinnocence,claimingthathereceivedthemoneylegallytospendonservicesfortheKirovregion.

AhostofliberalpoliticalfigureshavecomeoutinsupportofBelykhsincehisarrest,includingtheleaderoftheYabloko
party,GrigoryYavlinsky,thechiefeditorofradiostationEkhoMoskvyandtheDumamemberDmitryGudkov.

BelykhisthethirdgovernorofaRussianregiontobearrestedoncorruptionchargesinthelasttwoyears.

NovayaGazetaonthesilovikywar(FSBvs.FSOMurov/MikhalchenkoThesilovikycadresshakeup)

http://www.novayagazeta.ru/inquests/73735.html

Ahighly-placedFSBofficertellsNovayathatBelykhsarrestexceededtheboundsofunderstoodauthority
usually,anymovesinvolvingapersonappointedbythepresidenthavetobeclearedbythefirstperson,butin
Belykhscaseeventheoperationalworkbeforethearrestwasnotclearedaheadoftimewiththepresident.
InformationwasgatheredunderthecoverofgatheringmaterialonNavalniy.ThesourcetellsNovayathatfor
monthsnow,aconflictbetweenFSBers,ledbySergeyIvanov,andFSOpeoplewhowereheadedformallyand
informallybynowex-FSOchiefYevgeniyMurov,hasbeenunderway.Thesourcesaysthatthecreationofthe
NationalGuardwasavictoryfortheFSOsideoftheconflict.Itsnotthemobthatweareafraidof,saysthe
source,buteachother(Comment:Shulmansaidsomethingsimilarbackinthe27Maynotes).Andthereis
abasisforfearthemostseriousfunctiongrantedtotheNationalGuardistheoperational-investigativefunction.
TheresnoguaranteethattheNatsguardwillnotusethatfunctiontogoafterFSBpersonnelpostedtoministries,in
theregions,andinmajorbanksandenterprises.TheFSOalsopostsitscadresoutsideserviceeverygovernors
office,forexample,hasanFSOofficerkeepingwatch,maybeasheadofthegovernorsapparatus,ormaybeasan
aideortakingoverthegovernorspost(Comment:ThatsareferencetoaformerFSOman,Dyumin,
takingoverasTulagovernor).
FSOsourcesconfirmthattheFSBclantookthecreationoftheNatsguardhard.AtthesametimetheNatsguard
wasbeingcreated,therewassomelobbying(Comment:Whodidthelobbying?)tocreateanewMinistryof
StateSecurity(MGB)thatwouldincludetheFSB,theFSO,andtheSVR.Murov,however,managedtodefend
theindependenceoftheFSO.WithouttheFSO,creatinganMGBdidntmakesense.Butthewheelswerealready
turningoncreatingtheNatsguard.TheFSBclancouldnotsitbyandwatchtheFSOgrowstronger,soablow
againstthemwasdeliveredon16MarchwhenDmitriyMikhalchenkowasarrested.TheFSBknowsfullwellthat
MurovwasMikhalchenkospatron.MurovalsosupposedlyintroducedMikhalchenkotoPutin,recommendinghim
asabusinessmanwhogenerouslysupportedthepresidentsinitiatives.Mikhalchenkowasactuallyarrestedtwice
thefirsttime,theofficerheadingtheoperationcalledMurovandMikhalchenkowassubsequentlyreleased.Hewas
reprimandedfordoingsoandagainarrestedMikhalchenko.Afewdayslater,theFSBreportedtoPutinaboutthe
arrestandtheroleoftheFSOclaninMikhalchenkosbusinessschemes.Murovsfatewaspracticallydecidedon
thatveryday.
AnotherFSBvictorywastheliquidationoftheFSKNViktorIvanovwasaheavyweightintheFSOclan.The
FSBthenmovedtogetridofFSO-connectedpeoplewithintheFSBapparatus,themostprominentonebeingthe
headofDirectorateKofFSBEconomicSecurity(FSBSEB),ViktorVoronin(Comment:Therewasabitinthe
9JunenotesthatclaimedVoroninwasclosetoViktorIvanov.IwonderedwhetherthefateofIvanov
washavinganimpactonpeopleconnectedtohimlikeLarisaKalanda).Voroninsdeparturewasfollowed
bymuchtalkofmoreturnoveratFSB.ButcadreturnoverhasbeendraggedoutsomesaythattheFSBclan
grewnervousandmadeafatalmistakebyarrestingBelykh.BothFSBandFSOsourcessaythattheKirovFSB
overplayeditshandandexceededitsunderstoodauthoritybymakingthearrest.Firstofall,Putinwasnot
informedabouttheoperationalexperimentagainstBelykh.

ItcouldbethataftertheBelykharrest,anumberofchangesthatwereintheworksatFSBSEBwerehalted.Ivan
Tkachevofthe6thDirectorateofFSBInternalSecurity(FSBUSB)wassupposedtotakeoverasheadof
DirectorateKatFSBSEB,butisnowsupposedlyslatedforthe1s tdeputyspot.Thewordisthattheheadofthe
directoratewillbeitscurrent1s tdeputychief,AndreyYegorov.Otherchangesthathavebeentalkedaboutwont
happen.

Comment:Alright,letsseeifwecanmakesomesenseofthisOntheMGBstory,letsbackuptothe
notesfrom20JunethematerialinthosenotesonforminganewMGBorMinistryforPublicSecurity
(MOB)seemedtopointtoastrengtheningofZolotovsposition,withtheNatsguardbeingusedtopurge
theoldpowerstructuresandscreenofficersforpositionsintheMGB.ThematerialfromNovayasays
thatMurovopposedtheMGBprojectandwasabletosavehisFSO,whichundercuttheMBG/MOB
plan.WeusuallythinkofMurovandZolotovasallies,butoneofoursourceshadZolotovdriftingaway
fromhisoldbossandsettingupshoponhisownasNationalGuardchief(AlekseyMakarkinclaimedin
the2JunenotesthatMurovsdeparturewasavictoryforZolotovasMurovwasreplacedbyKochnev,a
manfromtheservicethatZolotovhadheaded,thePresidentialSecurityService.OnereasonIvehad
Zolotovasabigwinner,bigenoughtoreallyupsetthebalanceamongthesiloviky,isthatsomeofour
sources,Makarkinwasone,havesaidthatPutinisntusingtheFSOasawholeforacadresreserve,
hesusingtheZolotov-connectedPresidentialSecurityServiceforthat),somaybehesupportedthe
MGB/MOBoperation.

Nevertheless,Murovisgonesowhatkindofcloutdoeshehavenowthatcouldpreventthemerger
goingforward?ItwouldmakesensethatiftheendgamewasaMGB/MOBstaffedwithpeoplescreened
byZolotovthattheFSBandBortnikovwouldopposeit.WhileMurovsleavingmayatleasthavenot
beenopposedbyZolotov,maybethatretirementandthedeep-sixingoftheMGB/MOBprojectwas
compensationtotheFSBforthecreationoftheNatsguard,whichpracticallyallofoursourceshaveseen
asamovethatweakenstheFSB.Ofcourse,thatdoesnotmeanthatPutinisntinfavorofapurgeand
vettingofthepowerstructures,aprocessthatmightbesupervisedbyZolotov.Wellhavetowaitand
seeaboutthat.IsuspectitwonthappenthatPutinwillholdback.Thereareplentyofotherswho
mightopposesuchasuper-concentrationofpowerintheNatsguardandIvewrittenthatmovesmeantto
preventapalacecoupcouldbackfireifthereisaperceptionthatoneplayerisgettingtoostrong.

IvewrittenonMikhalchenkosarrestlikelybeingasignthatMurovwasweakened(Seethe21and31
Marchnotes).Mikhalchenkoalsoturnedupinthe30Marchand26,27,and31Mayand7,9,and10
Junenotes.Abitinthe9JunenotesfromKommersanthadVoroninasclosetoMikhalchenko(Andwe
sawaclaiminthosesamenotesthatRomodanovskiyofthenow-defunctFMSwasaprotgofVIvanov
aswell).TherewassomeconfusionaboutMikhalchenkoskryshainthe9and10Junenotes,Iwent
overapiececlaimingthatMikhalchenkowasinvolvedinthekillingofRomanTsepovinSt.Petersburg
backin2004.Inthatscenario,MikhalchenkowasconnectedtotheFSB,whileTsepovwasclosetothe
FSOpeople,especiallyZolotov,andthe(reportedly)ViktorIvanov-connectedRomodanovskiy,who,like
Zolotov,attendedTsepovsfuneral.
BothTsepovandMikhalchenkohadawebofconnectionstovariouspowerdepartments.But
TsepovstieswerestrongestwithFSOpeople,apparently.Connectionschangeovertimeandoverlap.
Upuntilearly2004,BortnikovwasinSt.PetersburgmaybeheandMikhalchenkoestablishedafirm
relationship,whileMikhalchnekoalsohadsomelinesouttotheFSOpeople.Couldbethatare-
alignmentofkryshastookplacesometimeafterTsepovsmurderandMikhalchenkossteppinginto
takeoverTsepovsnicheintheNorthernCapital.Anothercomplicatingfactorasmentionedabove,
RomodanovskiywenttoTsepovsfuneral.Butabitinthe9Junenotessaidhewascloseto
Mikhalchenkoandcouldbeimplicatedinthecaseagainsthim.

OnTkachevheisfromtheFSBUSB.HewassupposedtotakeoveratFSBSEB(See,forinstance,
the10Junenotes).SeemycommentsaboveaboutOrlovastakeontheFSBUSBbeinginZolotovs
sphereofinfluence.Yakovlev,whowassaidtobeaBortnikovprotg,wasreportedlyreplacedatFSB
SEBbyInternalSecuritysKorolev.DidKorolevinfactgetthejob?Abitinthe14Junenotesclaimed
thathehadalreadytakenoverasheadofFSBSEB.ThatsamebitsaidthatKorolevwasresponsible
forthecriminalcasethatcosttheFSBSEBsheadofDirectorateK,ViktorVoronin,hispost,aswellas
headofFSBSEBYakovlevlosinghis.Morechangesweresupposedlyontheway,butNovayaclaims
theywonthappen.Sothemaneuveringiscontinuing.

Putincancelsallmeetingsforthenextweek

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/putin-cancels-all-meetings-for-a-week/574433.html

RussianPresidentVladimirPutinhascancelledallplannedengagementsfortherestoftheweek,theRBCnewspaper
reportedWednesday,citingKremlinsources.

Thereasonsforthecancellationsisasyetunknown.KremlinspokespersonDmitryPeskovtoldjournaliststhatnoneof
Putinsscheduledtripshadbeendecidedlyconfirmed.

AStateCouncilmeetinginAltaiwhichPutinhadbeenduetoattendwascancelledonTuesdayandhasnowbeen
indefinitelypostponed.HisappearanceataneventinYakutiaonThursdaywasalsocancelled,RBCreported.

Iwouldntdramatizethesituation,saidEgorBorisov,PresidentoftheYakutiaRegion.Theheadofstatehasa
schedulewhichcanbechanged.

PutinhasnotattendedapubliceventsincehisofficialvisittoFinlandonFridayJuly1.

ItisnotthefirsttimethattheRussianleaderhasdisappearedfromthepubliceye.Putinalsocancelledallengagements
anddisappearedfrompublicviewfor11daysinMarchlastyear.

VladimirFrolovonPutinsNewdtente

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinion/article/a-modest-deal-vladimir-putin-s-new-d-tente-op-ed/574322.html

RussianPresidentVladimirPutinisindeconflictionmodewiththeWestafterawildrideoftwoandahalfyearsofmilitary
anddiplomatictensions.

InawiderangingpolicyspeechatabiannualmeetingofRussianambassadorsonJuly1,Putindidnotjustgothrough
theregularlitanyofcomplaintsovertheWestignoringRussia'sinterests,NATOexpansion,U.S.unilateralism,missile
defenseandoverthrowingregimesin"colorrevolutions."Heeschewedsaber-rattlingoverNATO'sdecisionstodeploy
additionalforcesintheBaltics,calledWesterncountriespartnersincreatinga"broadanti-terroristfront,"andemphasized
Russia'sinterestin"closecooperationwiththeUnitedStatesoninternationalaffairs."

Onlytwoweeksbefore,attheSt.PetersburgInternationalEconomicForum,PutinsaidRussiaacceptedtheUnitedStates
asthe"onlysuperpower"andwantedtoworkwithit,providedtheUnitedStateskeptitsdemocracylecturestoitself.
OnavisittoFinlandafewdaysago,PutinagreedtoholdameetingoftheRussia-NATOCouncilafterNATO'sWarsaw
summitthisweek,acceptedNATO'sproposalforpreventingmilitaryairandseaincidentsandinstructedRussia'sdefense
ministertoflyRussianmilitaryplanesovertheBalticSeawiththeirtransponderson.
Sinceearly2016,PutinandotherseniorRussianofficialshavebeensignalingMoscow'sinterestinde-escalatingtensions
withtheWest.TheywanttonormalizerelationsMoscowviewsasgoingbacktopre-Crimea,bracketingitoutasRussia
andtheWestmanagedtodoafterRussia's2008warwithGeorgia,withoutanyrollbackofRussianpoliciestoexert
controloverUkraine.

MoscowhasbeentakingstockofitsforcefulpoliciestoreassertRussia'sstatusasaglobalpowerandtorollback
theexpansionofWesterninstitutionsintotheformerSovietspacethatRussiaviewsasitsrightfulsphereofinfluence.
ThesepoliciesofmanagedconfrontationwiththeWestoverUkraineandlaterSyriahavebeenwidelypopularwith
thedomesticaudienceinRussiaover60percentthinkRussia'sforeignpolicyissuccessfulandboostedPutin's
domesticsupporttostratosphericlevels.

Yet,actualpolicyresultshavebeensomewhatunderwhelming.MoscowhasprovenitsabilitytowreckUkrainetoprevent
itfromjoiningWesternalliances.ButthecostshavebeenenormousbothintermsofWesterneconomicsanctions,
diplomaticisolationandaruinedrelationshipwithacloseneighbor.Yet,theWesthasrefusedtorecognizeRussia'ssphere
ofinfluenceandhasignoredcallstofleshoutanewYaltaagreementonthepost-ColdWarsettlement.Moscow'smilitary
positionwithregardtotheWesthasactuallydeterioratedasNATObeganapplyingtheworst-caseassumptions
toMoscow'sirresponsiblesaber-rattlingandunpredictablebehaviorandbeganplanningforadditionaltroopdeployments,
araceMoscowcouldnotwin.ThepolicyofaggressivelydeterringtheUnitedStatesandNATOwasfastapproaching
apointofdiminishingreturns.

Russiahasweatheredthesanctions'impactanditseconomydidnotcollapse.Butthesanctionshavebeenlimitedandit
becameclearthatamoreforcefulWesternresponse,likebansonexportstotheEUandthesuspensionofSWIFT
transactionscouldhaveresultedinadevastatingblowtoRussia'seconomy,whileapivottoAsiaprovedhardertoachieve.

Moscow'sdaringmilitaryinterventioninSyriain2015succeededinpiercingRussia'sisolationoverUkraineandwas
somewhatbreathtakinglyhailedasthecountry'sascensiontotheeliteclubonaparwiththeUnitedStates,capable
ofdeployingmilitaryforceabroadtoaffectpoliticaloutcomes.RussiamayhaverescuedSyrianPresidentBasharAssad's
regimefromamilitarydefeat,butitsinvestmentofbloodandtreasurehasboughtitonlymoreAssadandsomelimited
cooperationwiththeUnitedStates.Now,almostayearafteritsintervention,MoscowisstillstuckinSyriaandisonthe
vergeofowningitsmessofacivilwarIranissharinginthisinvestment.Itdesperatelyneedsapoliticalexittodeclare
victoryandgohome,butthatcouldonlybeengineeredthroughcooperationwiththeUnitedStates,Turkey(hence
thelatestrapprochement)andSaudiArabia.

VladimirFrolovisapoliticalanalyst.

From: WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>
Senttime: 07/06/201607:24:19PM
To: WayneandStacyAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>
Subject: InternetNotes6July2016
Attachments: IN6July16.docx

InternetNotes6July2016

StanovayaontheregimesfivedilemmasoverBelykh

NobailforBelykh

NovayaGazetaonthesilovikywar(FSBvs.FSOMurov/MikhalchenkoThesilovikycadresshakeup)

Putincancelsallmeetingsforthenextweek

VladimirFrolovonPutinsNewdtente

StanovayaontheregimesfivedilemmasoverBelykh

http://slon.ru/posts/70141

ItsapparentthatthefundamentalrulesofthegamearechangingThedirectionvlastwilltakedependsonhowtheregimesolves
somedilemmas

#1:TheBlackcashboxaprivilegeorbusinessasusual?BelykhclaimsthatthemoneyhewaspickingupataMoscow
restaurantwasnotabribe,butoff-the-bookscashforregionaldevelopmentInRussia,suchablackcashbox,likebribery,is
inevitable.Thewholeverticalofpowerrunsoffsuchcash.Thequestionishowitisorganizedmoreexperiencedplayerssetup
charitablefundsthatbusinesscontributesto.Inothercases,thecashispassedalonginabag.Backin2007,journalistNatalia
MorarwroteaboutthePresidentialAdministrationpassingalongcashtopoliticalparties.Belykh,asaleaderoftheUnionofRight
Forces,hadtoknowaboutthat.Sotheregimeisfacedwiththequestionofwhetherblackcashboxesshouldcontinueifso,
thenwhohastherighttomakeuseofthem?Insteadofbusinessasusual,willtheybeaprivilegefewareentitledto?Itsclearthat
neitherPutinnortheSKhavethoughtthisthroughwhatshappeningnowisjustaconsequenceoftheregimeaimingtosurvive.
Butitsobviouswewillseemoresuchincidentsinthenexttwo-threeyears.

#2:Aretheliberalsafifthcolumnorapartnerofvlast?ThedifferencebetweenBelykhandgovernorswhowerearrestedearlier
KhoroshavinandGayzeristhatBelykhwaspartofabalancingelementamongtheokhranitelyandthesystemicliberals.
Belykhcametopowerin2009,atatimetheKremlinwasplayingagamewiththeurbanmiddleclass.Belykhsarrestisa
seriousblowtothattime(thetimeofSurkov)andeffortstoincorporatethepotentialnesoglasnikhintothesystem.Belykhwasa
linkbetweenamaturingBolotnayaandtheKremlin.Now,withpressureonallthosewholooktotheWest,allsuchlinksareno
longeroperative.ThesignificanceofBelykhsarrestisbeingunder-estimated.Thesilovikyarehopingtogoafterthosethey
considerpartofthefifthcolumn,andpeoplelikeSurkov,Kudrin,Gref,Chubays,Medvedevandhiscirclearevulnerable
(Comment:Iwascommentingonbalancingtheotherday,thinkingthatPutinsrecentmovestoboostZolotovand
apparentlyweakenotherpowerdepartmentsliketheFSBandtheMVDmightworktheoppositeofwhatheintended
preventinganypalacecoupslesstrustedsilovikymightgetinvolvedinduringaseriouscrisis.Ialsonotedthat
Putinhadattemptedsomemodestbalancingmeasures,likesendingtheFSKNandtheFMStotheMVDas
compensationforthelossoftheInternalTroops.AndIthoughtthatKudrinscomingbackintothepicturemighthave
beenabalancingstep(partlyone)meanttocalmdownthesystemicliberalsbutcampaigns,announcedornot,
haveamomentumoftheirown.IdoubttheimplicationsofarrestingBelykhwerethoughtthroughandweread
yesterdaythatPutinmaynothaveevenknownthatBelykhwouldbeingarrestedbeforehand(Stanovayatakesupthe
ideathatPutindoesnotgiveagoaheadoneachcasebelow.Hertakeseemsaboutrighttomespeakingofnot
givingagoaheadbeforehand,IdontbelievePutinapprovedtheNemtsovkilling,either).Theplayerstendtobe
reactive,lessthoughtfulchessplayersthanmostimagine.SoBelykhsarrest,whichcouldbeviewedasanaturalstep
inawaveofmeasurestoprotecttheregimefromanypossibleweaklinks,canbecomeaproblem.Wealsoread
(again)yesterdaythattheFSBUSBsFeoktistovwasinchargeoftheoperationaimedatBelykhandOrlovahas
claimedthatZolotovistheprotectorandunofficialoverseeroftheFSBUSBfromthe29Junenotes:[Comment:We
havereadelsewherethatZolotovsolddepartmentthePresidentialSecurityService,partoftheFSO,wasbeingusedbyPutinasacadres
reserve(see,forinstance,the2Junenotes)andIvearguedthatZolotovsrisemakessenseinviewofthecrisis,Putinssuspicions,elitefears,
andPutinsnarrowingclosecircle(Seemycommentsinyesterdaysnotes).Iftheauthorofthearticleabove,KarinaOrlova,iscorrectand
ZolotovisoverseerandprotectoroftheFSBUSB,thenitalsomakessensethatthedirectoratewouldbeusedtopurgeuntrustworthy(or
potentiallyuntrustworthy)figures(SeemytakeonBelykhsarrestinthe27Junenotes),andwouldgrowininfluenceandexpanditsterritory.
OneofoursourcesclaimedthatYakovlevwasaBortnikovprotginthatcase,ifZolotovreallyisthepowerbehindtheUSB,Yakovlevs
departurefromFSBSEBmakessenseinthecontextoftheFSBvsFSObattle(see,forinstance,the2Junenotes)andthetensionsfollowingthe
Nemtsovmurder.]).Itisthatpartoftheestablishmentthatisunderpressure.TheonlypersontheycanappealtoisPutin.The
Belykhexampleisatrumpcardinthegameagainsttheliberals.

#3Aregovernorselitesorordinaryexecutives?Inabitmorethanayear,threegovernorshavebeenarrested.Onceisan
exception,twiceatendency,thethirdtimearule.Wearewitnessingacriticallyimportanttransformationwithintheregime.The
governorsweremadepartofthevertical,thenbecameakeysupportgroupfortheregime,andnowareavulnerablepartofthe
system.Agovernorsposthasbecomepoliticallydangerous.Acriticaldelimitationbetweentheverytopofthesystem,withits
privilegesandimmunity,andtherestisbeingmade(Comment:Seemyremarksaboveonthenarrowingcircleoftrust).This
ishavinganimpactonnotonlythegovernors,butmembersofUnitedRussia,deputies,highly-placedofficials(includingdeputy
ministers),andtheheadsofmajorcompanies.Thecompetitionwithintheeliteforbenefitsisincreasing,whilethenumberof
availablebenefitsisdecreasing.

Questionis,iftheKremlinnolongervaluesthegovernors,thenhowcanitprovideforpoliticalcontrol?Upuntilnow,nomatter
whowasappointedgovernor,theKremlincouldbesureofloyalty,dependingonloyalpersons(whichmeantamemberofthe
systemicoppositioncouldbecomeagovernorComment:AnotherinterestingpointtoponderasInotedearlier,the
KremlinseffortstoassertpoweroverthesilovikyviatheNationalGuardandZolotovsrisecouldbackfire,producing
thekindofdisloyaltytheKremlinmayhavesuspectedwaslurkingamongthepowerdepartments.Thesamecould
betrueofthegovernorsnotnow,theywillbehunkeringdownandtryingtoprotectthemselves,butinaserious
political/social/economiccrisis).ThegovernorspostinrelationtotheKremlinisbecomingmoretechnical.
#4Thesilovikyaretheyaninstrumentoranindependentforce?ThepoliticalfieldinRussiahasbeenmonopolized.Thereal
powerstruggleisinanarrowcircleofpeopleclosetoPutin.Thepublicspherehasbeende-politicized,butanon-publicsortof
politicsisaliveontheperiphery.ThedomesticpoliticalsphereisgraduallybeingdividedbetweenthePresidentialAdministrations
domesticpoliticsdepartment(whichhandlespoliticaldecorations)andthesiloviky,whoaretakinguponthemselvestheroleof
scenarist.Soarethesilovikyindependentactorsoraninstrumentforperformingtasksassignedfromabove?
EkhoMoskvyChiefEditorAlekseyVenediktov,whoisalsoafriendofBelykhs,tellushowPutincouldhavesanctionedthe
arresthesimplysaidFollowthelaw,whichiswhathesupposedlysaidbeforethearrestofKhodorkovskiy.Butthesituation
haschangedin2003,Putinwasgoingafterhispoliticalenemies,nowhemoreoftenleavesituptothesilovikytomakeacall.
Anexclusiveprecedentin2003canbecomeroutinein2016ifthedemi-urgestaysoutofit.In2003,thesilovikytookon
precisiontasks.Todayitismorelikeaconveyorbelt.Lawenforcementisnowlookingovertheentirepoliticalclass.Theidea
thatthereisapacketofkompromatoneveryoneandonlythepresidentcangivethego-aheadonacaseislosingforce.Today,the
presidentdoesntgiveago-ahead,butstillhastheprivilegeofputtingthebrakeson,somethingthatcanhappenonlyisheisaware
ofwhatsgoingon.YoucantcallPutin?Thentheymaycomeforyou.

#5Themostinterestingquestionofallishowfarcanthesystemgoinprosecutingitsown?Whereistheborderbetweenthose
whohaveimmunityandthosewhodont?Areministersatriskofbeingarrested?Howdoesthesystemrecognizethosewhose
arrestwoulddestabilizethesystemitselforthosewhobyremainingfreethreatende-stabilization?Asthecircleofpotentialvictims
expands,thestatesrepressivestructuresgrowstrongerThetendencytorepressiongrows,asrepressionbecomeslessselective
andlawenforcementbecomesmoreexperiencedatpracticingrepression.Someseetheeconomiccrisisasgivingliberalizationa
chance,butitcouldhavetheoppositeeffectandintimetherepressivepowercouldgrowstrongerthanthoseconsideredthe
foundersofthesystem.

NobailforBelykh

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/russian-governor-held-on-corruption-charges-refused-bail/574422.html

AMoscowcourthasrefusedtobailKirovregiongovernorNikitaBelykh,whowasarrestedlastmonthoncorruptioncharges,theTASS
newsagencyreportedWednesday.

Belykhslawyershadappealedtothecourtforthepoliticiantobeplacedunderhousearrestorreleasedonbailof28millionrubles
($430,000),TASSreported.

Theinvestigationhasnogroundsforkeepinghimunderarrestbutthecourttooknonotice,saidVadimProkhorov,Belykhslawyer.
ProkhorovsaidthathisclientshealthwasdeterioratinginprisonandmaintainedthatBelykhwasnotabribe-taker.Healsotold
journaliststhatBelykhwaspreparedtogototheEuropeanCourtofHumanRightstoappealhisdetentionandtoclearhisname,TASS
reported.

BelykhhasbeenheldinpretrialdetentionsincehewasarrestedinaMoscowrestaurantlastmonthandchargedwithreceivingbribes
worth400thousandeuros($442thousand).Themoneywasallegedlymeanttoensurethegovernorpromotedtheinterestsoftwo
companiesintheKirovregion.

Belykh,aformeroppositionpartyleader,haspubliclysaidthatthecaseagainsthimwasnotpoliticallymotivated.Hemaintainshis
innocence,claimingthathereceivedthemoneylegallytospendonservicesfortheKirovregion.

AhostofliberalpoliticalfigureshavecomeoutinsupportofBelykhsincehisarrest,includingtheleaderoftheYablokoparty,Grigory
Yavlinsky,thechiefeditorofradiostationEkhoMoskvyandtheDumamemberDmitryGudkov.

BelykhisthethirdgovernorofaRussianregiontobearrestedoncorruptionchargesinthelasttwoyears.

NovayaGazetaonthesilovikywar(FSBvs.FSOMurov/MikhalchenkoThesilovikycadresshakeup)

http://www.novayagazeta.ru/inquests/73735.html

Ahighly-placedFSBofficertellsNovayathatBelykhsarrestexceededtheboundsofunderstoodauthorityusually,anymoves
involvingapersonappointedbythepresidenthavetobeclearedbythefirstperson,butinBelykhscaseeventheoperational
workbeforethearrestwasnotclearedaheadoftimewiththepresident.Informationwasgatheredunderthecoverofgathering
materialonNavalniy.ThesourcetellsNovayathatformonthsnow,aconflictbetweenFSBers,ledbySergeyIvanov,andFSO
peoplewhowereheadedformallyandinformallybynowex-FSOchiefYevgeniyMurov,hasbeenunderway.Thesourcesays
thatthecreationoftheNationalGuardwasavictoryfortheFSOsideoftheconflict.Itsnotthemobthatweareafraidof,says
thesource,buteachother(Comment:Shulmansaidsomethingsimilarbackinthe27Maynotes).Andthereisabasisfor
fearthemostseriousfunctiongrantedtotheNationalGuardistheoperational-investigativefunction.Theresnoguaranteethat
theNatsguardwillnotusethatfunctiontogoafterFSBpersonnelpostedtoministries,intheregions,andinmajorbanksand
enterprises.TheFSOalsopostsitscadresoutsideserviceeverygovernorsoffice,forexample,hasanFSOofficerkeeping
watch,maybeasheadofthegovernorsapparatus,ormaybeasanaideortakingoverthegovernorspost(Comment:Thats
areferencetoaformerFSOman,Dyumin,takingoverasTulagovernor).

FSOsourcesconfirmthattheFSBclantookthecreationoftheNatsguardhard.AtthesametimetheNatsguardwasbeing
created,therewassomelobbying(Comment:Whodidthelobbying?)tocreateanewMinistryofStateSecurity(MGB)that
wouldincludetheFSB,theFSO,andtheSVR.Murov,however,managedtodefendtheindependenceoftheFSO.Withoutthe
FSO,creatinganMGBdidntmakesense.ButthewheelswerealreadyturningoncreatingtheNatsguard.TheFSBclancould
notsitbyandwatchtheFSOgrowstronger,soablowagainstthemwasdeliveredon16MarchwhenDmitriyMikhalchenkowas
arrested.TheFSBknowsfullwellthatMurovwasMikhalchenkospatron.MurovalsosupposedlyintroducedMikhalchenkoto
Putin,recommendinghimasabusinessmanwhogenerouslysupportedthepresidentsinitiatives.Mikhalchenkowasactually
arrestedtwicethefirsttime,theofficerheadingtheoperationcalledMurovandMikhalchenkowassubsequentlyreleased.He
wasreprimandedfordoingsoandagainarrestedMikhalchenko.Afewdayslater,theFSBreportedtoPutinaboutthearrestand
theroleoftheFSOclaninMikhalchenkosbusinessschemes.Murovsfatewaspracticallydecidedonthatveryday.

AnotherFSBvictorywastheliquidationoftheFSKNViktorIvanovwasaheavyweightintheFSOclan.TheFSBthenmoved
togetridofFSO-connectedpeoplewithintheFSBapparatus,themostprominentonebeingtheheadofDirectorateKofFSB
EconomicSecurity(FSBSEB),ViktorVoronin(Comment:Therewasabitinthe9JunenotesthatclaimedVoroninwas
closetoViktorIvanov.IwonderedwhetherthefateofIvanovwashavinganimpactonpeopleconnectedtohimlike
LarisaKalanda).VoroninsdeparturewasfollowedbymuchtalkofmoreturnoveratFSB.Butcadreturnoverhasbeen
draggedoutsomesaythattheFSBclangrewnervousandmadeafatalmistakebyarrestingBelykh.BothFSBandFSO
sourcessaythattheKirovFSBoverplayeditshandandexceededitsunderstoodauthoritybymakingthearrest.Firstofall,
PutinwasnotinformedabouttheoperationalexperimentagainstBelykh.

ItcouldbethataftertheBelykharrest,anumberofchangesthatwereintheworksatFSBSEBwerehalted.IvanTkachevofthe
6thDirectorateofFSBInternalSecurity(FSBUSB)wassupposedtotakeoverasheadofDirectorateKatFSBSEB,butis
nowsupposedlyslatedforthe1s tdeputyspot.Thewordisthattheheadofthedirectoratewillbeitscurrent1s tdeputychief,
AndreyYegorov.Otherchangesthathavebeentalkedaboutwonthappen.

Comment:Alright,letsseeifwecanmakesomesenseofthisOntheMGBstory,letsbackuptothenotesfrom20
JunethematerialinthosenotesonforminganewMGBorMinistryforPublicSecurity(MOB)seemedtopointtoa
strengtheningofZolotovsposition,withtheNatsguardbeingusedtopurgetheoldpowerstructuresandscreen
officersforpositionsintheMGB.ThematerialfromNovayasaysthatMurovopposedtheMGBprojectandwasable
tosavehisFSO,whichundercuttheMBG/MOBplan.WeusuallythinkofMurovandZolotovasallies,butoneof
oursourceshadZolotovdriftingawayfromhisoldbossandsettingupshoponhisownasNationalGuardchief
(AlekseyMakarkinclaimedinthe2JunenotesthatMurovsdeparturewasavictoryforZolotovasMurovwas
replacedbyKochnev,amanfromtheservicethatZolotovhadheaded,thePresidentialSecurityService.Onereason
IvehadZolotovasabigwinner,bigenoughtoreallyupsetthebalanceamongthesiloviky,isthatsomeofour
sources,Makarkinwasone,havesaidthatPutinisntusingtheFSOasawholeforacadresreserve,hesusingthe
Zolotov-connectedPresidentialSecurityServiceforthat),somaybehesupportedtheMGB/MOBoperation.
Nevertheless,Murovisgonesowhatkindofcloutdoeshehavenowthatcouldpreventthemergergoingforward?
ItwouldmakesensethatiftheendgamewasaMGB/MOBstaffedwithpeoplescreenedbyZolotovthattheFSBand
Bortnikovwouldopposeit.WhileMurovsleavingmayatleasthavenotbeenopposedbyZolotov,maybethat
retirementandthedeep-sixingoftheMGB/MOBprojectwascompensationtotheFSBforthecreationofthe
Natsguard,whichpracticallyallofoursourceshaveseenasamovethatweakenstheFSB.Ofcourse,thatdoesnot
meanthatPutinisntinfavorofapurgeandvettingofthepowerstructures,aprocessthatmightbesupervisedby
Zolotov.Wellhavetowaitandseeaboutthat.IsuspectitwonthappenthatPutinwillholdback.Thereareplenty
ofotherswhomightopposesuchasuper-concentrationofpowerintheNatsguardandIvewrittenthatmovesmeant
topreventapalacecoupcouldbackfireifthereisaperceptionthatoneplayerisgettingtoostrong.

IvewrittenonMikhalchenkosarrestlikelybeingasignthatMurovwasweakened(Seethe21and31March
notes).Mikhalchenkoalsoturnedupinthe30Marchand26,27,and31Mayand7,9,and10Junenotes.Abitin
the9JunenotesfromKommersanthadVoroninasclosetoMikhalchenko(Andwesawaclaiminthosesamenotes
thatRomodanovskiyofthenow-defunctFMSwasaprotgofVIvanovaswell).Therewassomeconfusionabout
Mikhalchenkoskryshainthe9and10Junenotes,IwentoverapiececlaimingthatMikhalchenkowasinvolvedin
thekillingofRomanTsepovinSt.Petersburgbackin2004.Inthatscenario,Mikhalchenkowasconnectedtothe
FSB,whileTsepovwasclosetotheFSOpeople,especiallyZolotov,andthe(reportedly)ViktorIvanov-connected
Romodanovskiy,who,likeZolotov,attendedTsepovsfuneral.

BothTsepovandMikhalchenkohadawebofconnectionstovariouspowerdepartments.ButTsepovstieswere
strongestwithFSOpeople,apparently.Connectionschangeovertimeandoverlap.Upuntilearly2004,Bortnikov
wasinSt.PetersburgmaybeheandMikhalchenkoestablishedafirmrelationship,whileMikhalchnekoalsohad
somelinesouttotheFSOpeople.Couldbethatare-alignmentofkryshastookplacesometimeafterTsepovs
murderandMikhalchenkossteppingintotakeoverTsepovsnicheintheNorthernCapital.Anothercomplicating
factorasmentionedabove,RomodanovskiywenttoTsepovsfuneral.Butabitinthe9Junenotessaidhewasclose
toMikhalchenkoandcouldbeimplicatedinthecaseagainsthim.

OnTkachevheisfromtheFSBUSB.HewassupposedtotakeoveratFSBSEB(See,forinstance,the10June
notes).SeemycommentsaboveaboutOrlovastakeontheFSBUSBbeinginZolotovssphereofinfluence.
Yakovlev,whowassaidtobeaBortnikovprotg,wasreportedlyreplacedatFSBSEBbyInternalSecuritys
Korolev.DidKorolevinfactgetthejob?Abitinthe14Junenotesclaimedthathehadalreadytakenoverasheadof
FSBSEB.ThatsamebitsaidthatKorolevwasresponsibleforthecriminalcasethatcosttheFSBSEBsheadof
DirectorateK,ViktorVoronin,hispost,aswellasheadofFSBSEBYakovlevlosinghis.Morechangeswere
supposedlyontheway,butNovayaclaimstheywonthappen.Sothemaneuveringiscontinuing.

Putincancelsallmeetingsforthenextweek

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/putin-cancels-all-meetings-for-a-week/574433.html

RussianPresidentVladimirPutinhascancelledallplannedengagementsfortherestoftheweek,theRBCnewspaperreported
Wednesday,citingKremlinsources.

Thereasonsforthecancellationsisasyetunknown.KremlinspokespersonDmitryPeskovtoldjournaliststhatnoneofPutins
scheduledtripshadbeendecidedlyconfirmed.

AStateCouncilmeetinginAltaiwhichPutinhadbeenduetoattendwascancelledonTuesdayandhasnowbeenindefinitely
postponed.HisappearanceataneventinYakutiaonThursdaywasalsocancelled,RBCreported.

Iwouldntdramatizethesituation,saidEgorBorisov,PresidentoftheYakutiaRegion.Theheadofstatehasaschedulewhichcanbe
changed.

PutinhasnotattendedapubliceventsincehisofficialvisittoFinlandonFridayJuly1.

ItisnotthefirsttimethattheRussianleaderhasdisappearedfromthepubliceye.Putinalsocancelledallengagementsanddisappeared
frompublicviewfor11daysinMarchlastyear.

VladimirFrolovonPutinsNewdtente

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinion/article/a-modest-deal-vladimir-putin-s-new-d-tente-op-ed/574322.html
RussianPresidentVladimirPutinisindeconflictionmodewiththeWestafterawildrideoftwoandahalfyearsofmilitaryanddiplomatic
tensions.

InawiderangingpolicyspeechatabiannualmeetingofRussianambassadorsonJuly1,Putindidnotjustgothroughtheregularlitany
ofcomplaintsovertheWestignoringRussia'sinterests,NATOexpansion,U.S.unilateralism,missiledefenseandoverthrowingregimes
in"colorrevolutions."Heeschewedsaber-rattlingoverNATO'sdecisionstodeployadditionalforcesintheBaltics,calledWestern
countriespartnersincreatinga"broadanti-terroristfront,"andemphasizedRussia'sinterestin"closecooperationwiththeUnitedStates
oninternationalaffairs."

Onlytwoweeksbefore,attheSt.PetersburgInternationalEconomicForum,PutinsaidRussiaacceptedtheUnitedStatesasthe"only
superpower"andwantedtoworkwithit,providedtheUnitedStateskeptitsdemocracylecturestoitself.OnavisittoFinlandafewdays
ago,PutinagreedtoholdameetingoftheRussia-NATOCouncilafterNATO'sWarsawsummitthisweek,acceptedNATO'sproposal
forpreventingmilitaryairandseaincidentsandinstructedRussia'sdefenseministertoflyRussianmilitaryplanesovertheBalticSeawith
theirtransponderson.

Sinceearly2016,PutinandotherseniorRussianofficialshavebeensignalingMoscow'sinterestinde-escalatingtensionswiththeWest.
TheywanttonormalizerelationsMoscowviewsasgoingbacktopre-Crimea,bracketingitoutasRussiaandtheWestmanagedtodo
afterRussia's2008warwithGeorgia,withoutanyrollbackofRussianpoliciestoexertcontroloverUkraine.

MoscowhasbeentakingstockofitsforcefulpoliciestoreassertRussia'sstatusasaglobalpowerandtorollbacktheexpansion
ofWesterninstitutionsintotheformerSovietspacethatRussiaviewsasitsrightfulsphereofinfluence.Thesepoliciesofmanaged
confrontationwiththeWestoverUkraineandlaterSyriahavebeenwidelypopularwiththedomesticaudienceinRussiaover60
percentthinkRussia'sforeignpolicyissuccessfulandboostedPutin'sdomesticsupporttostratosphericlevels.

Yet,actualpolicyresultshavebeensomewhatunderwhelming.MoscowhasprovenitsabilitytowreckUkrainetopreventitfromjoining
Westernalliances.ButthecostshavebeenenormousbothintermsofWesterneconomicsanctions,diplomaticisolationandaruined
relationshipwithacloseneighbor.Yet,theWesthasrefusedtorecognizeRussia'ssphereofinfluenceandhasignoredcallstofleshout
anewYaltaagreementonthepost-ColdWarsettlement.Moscow'smilitarypositionwithregardtotheWesthasactuallydeterioratedas
NATObeganapplyingtheworst-caseassumptionstoMoscow'sirresponsiblesaber-rattlingandunpredictablebehaviorandbeganplanning
foradditionaltroopdeployments,araceMoscowcouldnotwin.ThepolicyofaggressivelydeterringtheUnitedStatesandNATOwas
fastapproachingapointofdiminishingreturns.

Russiahasweatheredthesanctions'impactanditseconomydidnotcollapse.Butthesanctionshavebeenlimitedanditbecameclearthat
amoreforcefulWesternresponse,likebansonexportstotheEUandthesuspensionofSWIFTtransactionscouldhaveresultedina
devastatingblowtoRussia'seconomy,whileapivottoAsiaprovedhardertoachieve.

Moscow'sdaringmilitaryinterventioninSyriain2015succeededinpiercingRussia'sisolationoverUkraineandwassomewhat
breathtakinglyhailedasthecountry'sascensiontotheeliteclubonaparwiththeUnitedStates,capableofdeployingmilitaryforceabroad
toaffectpoliticaloutcomes.RussiamayhaverescuedSyrianPresidentBasharAssad'sregimefromamilitarydefeat,butitsinvestment
ofbloodandtreasurehasboughtitonlymoreAssadandsomelimitedcooperationwiththeUnitedStates.Now,almostayearafterits
intervention,MoscowisstillstuckinSyriaandisonthevergeofowningitsmessofacivilwarIranissharinginthisinvestment.It
desperatelyneedsapoliticalexittodeclarevictoryandgohome,butthatcouldonlybeengineeredthroughcooperationwiththeUnited
States,Turkey(hencethelatestrapprochement)andSaudiArabia.

VladimirFrolovisapoliticalanalyst.

From: PeterReddaway<pbreddaway@gmail.com>
Senttime: 07/07/201607:44:50AM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Cc: WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>
Subject: Re:InternetNotes5July2016

Thanks,Bob,forthesehelpfulamendments.

Ofcourse,weshouldkeepinmindthattheUSBFSBmaybynow(tenyearslater)containsomeformer
SPBofficerswhostillhavevividmemoriesofMikhalchenko'sgreed.

OnThu,Jul7,2016at12:59AM,RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>wrote:
ItwasntFSBofficersinStPitwasofficersfromtheUSBFSB(centralapparatus)whowentafterMikhalchenko.
ItsnotcleartomethatBortnikovwashiskryshaitisclearMurovwas.

OnJul6,2016,at4:21PM,WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>wrote:

IllhavesomemoreonMikhalchenkoandFSBvsFSOintodaysnotes.

From:PeterReddaway[mailto:pbreddaway@gmail.com]
Sent:Wednesday,July06,201610:01AM
To:RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>;WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>
Subject:Re:InternetNotes5July2016

T
hisisagoodpoint,andremindsmethatIwasoftenstruckby
Mikhalchenko'sremarkablespeedandaggressivenessin
acquiring/seizingassets(andnodoubtpassingagoodpercentageofthe
valuetoBortnikov).Thismusthaveprovokedenvyandangerinalotof
FSBofficersinSPB.

P

OnWed,Jul6,2016at2:03AM,RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>wrote:
Ifthisisthecase,itsmoreinterestingthanyoumightthinkatfirstblushsinceitwastheFSBthatwentafter
Mikhalchenko.




OnJul5,2016,at6:38PM,PeterReddaway<pbreddaway@gmail.com>wrote:

W
ayne,

V.interestingaboutPutin'sapparentthreatstoBortnikov
(p.3).LinksupwithwhatBobremindedmeabouttheother
day(andIforwardedtoyou),namelythatBortnikovwas-for
someyearsatleast-Mikhalchenko'skrysha.SoM'sarrest
wasprobablyonemorePutinthreattoBortnikov.

Best,

Peter

OnTue,Jul5,2016at6:27PM,WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>wrote:

InternetNotes5July2016

FSBraidonEkhoMoskvy(PiontkovskiyApalacecoupandatransitionalperiod:
Piontkovskiy/Khodorkovskiy/Illarionov).1

Piontkovskiyonsilovikyshakeups.3

SoloveysaystheKremlindoesntcareforBortnikov.3

SergeyKanevonBelykh.3

PutinappointstwoZolotovNationalGuarddeputies.4

PutingivesRolduginanaward..4

Whoistoblame?(Fortheeconomiccrisis).4

TheReserveFundwillrunoutin2017?.5

MoscowCityCourtreleasesDmitriyKamenshchikfromhousearrest.6

AmericancompanywillresumebusinessinCrimea.6

KlintsevichsaysSnowdencooperatedwithRussianintelligence.7

FSBraidonEkhoMoskvy(PiontkovskiyApalacecoupandatransitionalperiod:
Piontkovskiy/Khodorkovskiy/Illarionov)

http://www.newsru.com/russia/05jul2016/echo_print.html

AccordingtoEkhoChiefEditorAlekseyVenediktov,theraidtookplaceonTuesday.TheFSB
wasafterEkhose-mailcorrespondencewithpublicistAndreyPiontkovskiy.SomeEkho
employeeshavebeencalledinforquestioningbytheFSBandMVD.EditorVitaliyRuvinskiy
wasquestionedaboutNavalniysblogattheMVDandonPiontkovskiysattheFSB.
VenediktovhimselfisonatriptoGenevaAcriminalcasehasbeenopenedagainst
PiontkovskiyforpubliccallsforactionsthatwouldviolatetheterritorialintegrityoftheRussian
Federation.

InJanuary,IrinaYarovayaoftheDumaSecurityCommitteesentarequestforareviewtothe
ProsecutorsofficeconcerningaPiontkovskiyarticle(ABombAbouttoGoOff)thatwas
postedontheEkhowebsite.Beforethat,asimilarrequesthadbeenmadebytheChairmanofthe
ChechenParliament,MagomedDaudov,whoclaimedthatPiontkovskiywascallingfor
ChechnyatobeseparatedfromtheRussianFederation.PiontkovskiyleftRussiaon19February
aftertheProsecutorsofficehaduncoveredwhatitsaidwasevidenceofextremisminhiswriting.
TheBombarticleappearedon23January.ItcalledfortheseparationofChechnyafrom
Russia.Ekhosubsequentlydeletedthelasttwoparagraphsofthearticle.Thearticlesaidthat
RussiahadlosttheChechenwarandwasnowpayingoffGrozny,financingpalacesand
goldenpistolsfortheChechenleaders,whileunemployedyouthswentofftofightforthe
Islamists.PiontkovskiyfurtherclaimedthatsilovikywhoareunhappywithKadyrovmaystarta
thirdChechenwar.

Piontkovskiyslastcolumn,dated27June,wasaboutthearrestofKirovGovernorNikita
Belykh(Seethenotesfrom27,28,and29June),whichPiontkovskiyattributedtoanunderthe
carpetbattleamongKremlinclans.TheinternalKremlinjunta,accordingtoPiontkovskiy,
sensestheruinousstateoftheregimeandistryingtopreserveitswellbeingbypurgingpartner-
competitorsinpreparationforatransitionalperiod.

AndreyIllarionovre-postedthePiontkovskiyBombarticle:
http://aillarionov.livejournal.com/894698.html

Asfarasthesiloviky,Kadyrov,andtheNemtsovmurder,Piontkovskiy
toldKasparov.ru(http://www.kasparov.ru/material.php?id=576E441AD5B89)thatPutincannot
removeKadyrovthatwouldbeanacknowledgementthathispolicyintheCaucasushad
collapsed,bringingintoquestionthelegitimacyoftheregime(sinceitwasVVPsactionson
Chechnyathathadhelpedbringhimtopower).Theregimeisenteringaninevitablephaseof
possiblepalacecoups(followingthedefeatoftheRussianworldconceptinUkraine)and
PutinmaythrowabonetothesilovikyintheformofsomeoneclosetoKadyrovwhowas
implicatedintheNemtsovmurderNavalniyandKhodorkovskiyhavejoinedintheattackson
Kadyrovandhavesaidthattheregimewillchangenotviaelections,butthroughaseriesof
palacecoups(PiontkovskiycallsthesilovikyattacksonKadyrovasluggishon-goingcoup).
PiontkovskiygoesonaboutKhodorkovskiytellingSlon(http://slon.ru/posts/69549)thata
juntaof7-9wouldemergeafterapalacecoup,theleadersofwhichwouldhavearmed
structuresinthestreetsComment:KhodormaybealludingtoStrelkov,who,like
KhodorkovskiyandNavalniy,hasalsosaidthatheandhissupportersarepreparingto
stepinaftertheregimecollapses(See,forinstance,the7Junenotes),though
PiontkovskiyseemstothinkheisreferringtoBortnikovsandZolotovsandKadyrovs
armedformations.MoreonKhodorkovskiyscommentsPiontkovskiysaysheagreeswith
Khodorkovskiythatifthecoupdoesntatfirstcomeoff,thesilovikycouldturntoKhodoror
Navalniyforhelp.OneofthoseKhodorkovskiymentionedaspartofthetransitionalleadership
wasMedvedev.Comment:Khodorkovskiyhasbeensayingthisforawhile.Irecall
Belkovskiy,whoIthinkworksforKhodorkovskiy,alsomentioningMedvedevasa
transitionalfigure.

IllarionovsummedupKhodorkovskiysprogram,his(Khodors)regimechangescenario,and
listedthosehe(Illarionov)figuredmightbeontheroundtableoftransitionalleadersheadedby
MedvedevthatwasmentionedbyKhodorkovskiy:http://www.kasparov.ru/material.php?
id=576A2CFD907B7

PutinexitsMedvedevformsatransitionalgovernmentTheparliamentcouldbedissolved
Significantsocialforceswouldthenplace7-9orasmanyasfifteenpeopleonaroundtablein
theplaceofparliamentThesepeoplewillhavearmedsupporterswillingtobackthemup
ActingasaConstitutionalConvention,theroundtablewillapprovechangestotheRussian
Constitution,ineffectwritinganewoneThisnewconstitutionwillbeanagreementamongthe
armedformationsTheroundtablewillbesupportedbyaminority,buteven50,000wouldbe
enoughtoturnthecountryonitsheadIf500,000turnoutonthestreets,itistheywhowill
decidethequestionofvlastinRussiaThevastmajoritywillnotbetakingpartintheroundtable
atthatmoment,thepassivemajoritywonthavearoleTheiropinionswontmatteruntilthere
arehonestelections.Untilthen,theroundtablewillactasvlastMedvedevwillorganizenew,
honestelectionsApartfromMedvedev,Kudrincouldbepartofthetransitionalleadership,as
couldKhodorkovskiyandNavalniyThetransitionalleadershipwontbeadictatorship,its
anotherformofauthority

Illarionovnameshisversionofafifteen-personroundtableleadership(assumingPutinmakesan
exit):Khodorkovskiy,Medvedev,Kudrin,Navalniy,SergeyIvanov,Shoygu,Bortnikov,
Kolokoltsev,Bastrykin,Zolotov,Kadyrov,Sobyanin,Zyuganov,Zhirinovskiy,Strelkov.

Piontkovskiyonsilovikyshakeups

PutinwillgiveupanyoneforthesakeofKadyrov

http://mobile.twitter.com/apiontkovsky/status/740587590483640321
AndreiPiontkovsky@apiontkovsky
.,,,,
.-,,.
9:53AM-8Jun2016
Comment:PiontkovskiyalsosaysthatYuriYakovlevisBortnikovsman.Seethe30
Junenotes,whichmentionedaBortnikov-Yakovlevconnection.

SoloveysaystheKremlindoesntcareforBortnikov

Hisremarkisoneofthecommentsonthispost:http://m.vk.com/wall244477574_19214?
post_add#post_add
.
SoloveywasreferringtoareportaboutanincidentinvolvingFSBAcademygraduatesracingto
MoscowinthreedozenMercedesGelandewagensandcausingallkindsofproblemsonthe
roads,withnumeroustrafficviolationstheFSBwasforcedtoopenanofficialinquiryaboutthe
incident.SoloveywassayingthattheKremlinwasalreadynothappywith
Bortnikov:http://m.ria.ru/incidents/20160704/1458402678.html
NovayaGazetaDeputyDirector(andformerFSBofficer)ValeriyShiryayevontheincident
(AcademyGraduateshaveDestroyedtheirReputationsEvenbeforeBeginningtheir
Service):http://www.novayagazeta.ru/columns/73696.html)Thereisvideoatthelink

SergeyKanevonBelykh

Backon10June,wereadthatOlegFeoktistovwouldtakeoveratFSBInternalSecurity(FSB
USB)afterhisbossthere,SergeyKorolev,movedovertoheadFSBEconomicSecurity(FSB
SEB),whileFSBUSBsIvanTkachevwouldtakeoveratFSBSEBsDirectorateK.On14
June,wesawanothermentionofFeoktistovtakingoveratFSBUSB.On28June,wesawa
reportthatFeoktistovhadheadedtheoperationtargetingBelykh.Feoktistovalsoplayedarolein
theGUEBiPKscandal.See,forinstance,the14May2014notes.
NewTimesalsoreportsthatFeoktistovheadedtheoperationtargeting
Belykh:http://www.newtimes.ru/articles/detail/113672/
AttheLubyanka,FeoktistovisknownasBigOlegorGeneralFikus.Hehasforalongtime
aimedtotakeoverasheadofhisdirectorate.TheBelykharrestisanadditionaltrumpcardin
thedeckforhimBelykh,whohasbeencriticizedbyPutinpreviously(Seethe28Junenotes),
wasreputedlybreathingeasierwhenPutin,speakingattheSt.PetersburgEconomicForum,
declaredthatKirovOblastwasamongthosewhichweredoingbetteronimprovingthe
investmentclimateButBelykmayhavebeenmistakensourcessaythattheFSBhasbeen
eyeingBelykhsince2012andPutinwaswellawareofthat.*OnthedayBelykhwasarrested,
PutinwasonatriptoChinaOneKanevsourcesaysthattheKirovregionalFSBhasbeen
hostiletoBelykhforsometimeashehadcutthemofffromlucrativesourcesofincome
AnotherstorymakingtheroundsinKirovOblastisthatNikitaBelykhwasnottheprimarytarget
thatwouldbehisbrotherAleksandr,whoresignedfromtheProsecutorsoffice(heheadedthe
VolgaregionProsecutorsoffice)followinghisbrothersarrest(Seethe29Junenotes).
AleksandrwassaidtobeslatedforapositionasoneofChaykasdeputiesAnothersourceis
convincedthattheSeptemberelectionshavenothingtodowithBelykhsarresthehadalready
reachedagreementwithUnitedRussiaabouttheelectionsandBelykhwasapartofthesystem
*ButNovayaGazetasIrekMurtazinclaimsthatPutinwasinformedaboutBelykhsdetention
onlyafterthefact.PutinwasinBeijingandhadnotbeeninformedabouttheFSB/SK
operationalexperimenttargetingBelykh:http://www.novayagazeta.ru/inquests/73675.html

PutinappointstwoZolotovNationalGuarddeputies

http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/3026102

ThetwoareLt.GeneralBorukayevandLt.GeneralSergeyYerygin.Putinalsoabolishedthe
postofMVDInternalTroopsCommanderTheMVDministerwillfromnowonhaveseven,
noteight,deputies

PutingivesRolduginanaward

http://meduza.io/news/2016/07/04/putin-nagradil-roldugina-ordenom-za-bezuprechnuyu-
gosudarstvennuyu-sluzhbu

PutinawardedRolduginwiththeOrderofAleksandrNevskiyTheawardwasgivenbecauseof
Rolduginscontributionstohumanitarianforeignpolicyactionsthathavestrengthened
friendshipandpeacebetweenpeoples

Whoistoblame?(Fortheeconomiccrisis)

http://slon.ru/posts/70181
ThearticledrawsonresearchdonebytheHigherEconomicsSchoolandLevadapollsEvery
thirdfamilywithchildrendoesnthavemoneyformedicineandhalfofthemareholdingbackon
meetingpaymentobligationsRealincomesarefallingandunemploymentisrising,asare
pricesSlonlooksattheresultsoftheLevadapollingforJuneonright/wrongdirectionand
approvalPutinremainspopularintheperiodfollowingtheCrimeacampaign/annexation,his
approvalratinghasnotdroppedbelow80%.Thedeclineoftherubleandcorruptionscandals
havenothurtPutinthepublicseemstothinkPutinwantstoimprovethingsforthepeople,butis
heldupbythebureaucracyandaweakteamMeanwhile,Medvedevsandthegovernments
approvalratingshavedeclined:Medvedevshasdeclinedfrom73%in2008to51%todayand
theright/wrongdirectionnumberstrackwithMedvedevsapprovalratingsovertime
Herearetheright/wrongdirection,approval/trustratingsfromthe30Junenotes(Comment:
Putinstrustratingisdownsignificantlysincelastspring):
[http://www.levada.ru/2016/06/30/iyunskie-rejtingi-odobreniya-i-doveriya-6/

50%saythatthecountryismovingintherightdirection(49%lastmonth64%inJune2015)Wrong
direction33%(33%18%)Hardtosay18%(18%14%)Putinsapprovalratingisat81%(80%last
month89%inJune,2015)Medvedevsapprovalratingisat51%(54%inMay),whilethegovernmentsis
48%(49%)Approvalofgovernorsisat51%(55%inMay)Dumaapprovalis41%(42%lastmonth)Name
5-6politiciansorpublicfiguresyoutrustPutinin1stplaceat51%(60%inMarch),followedbyShoygu
(24%),Lavrov(17%),Medvedev(13%),Zhirinovskiy(13%),andZyuganov(11%)]

TheReserveFundwillrunoutin2017?

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/russias-reserve-fund-to-run-empty-in-
2017/574344.html

RussiawillemptyitsReserveFundnextyearandwillstartdippingintotheNationalWelfareFund,
theReutersnewsagencyreportedTuesday,citingdraftbudgetmaterials.
Amidbudgetdeficit,theFinanceMinistryisexpectedtoincreasedomesticborrowingfourorfive
timeswithinthreeyears.

TheministryisnotplanningsignificantcutstoRussiasexpensesinanticipationoftheStateDuma
andpresidentialelections,Reutersreported.Expenseswillbefixedat15.78trillionrubles($245.7
billion)overthreeyears.

Russiawillfillholesinitsbudgetcausedbyaconsistentdeclineingrossdomesticproductusing
fundsandloans.Bytheendof2016,therewillbe980billionrubles($15.27billion)leftintheReserve
Fund,oneofitstwosovereignfunds.Thisfundwillbeemptiedatsomepointin2017,accordingto
ministrymaterials.

TheFinanceMinistrysaysthatRussiawouldspend783billionrubles($12.13billion)fromthe
NationalWelfareFundin2017and883billionrubles($13.68billion)in2018,Reutersreported.

TheNationalWelfareFund,whichheld$73billionatthestartofJuly,wasformedin2008whenthe
StabilizationFundwassplitintotheReserveFundandtheNationalWelfareFund.Aboutone-thirdof
theNationalWelfareFundisinvestedinRussianstatedevelopmentbankVneshekonombank(VEB)
andotherprojects.

MoscowCityCourtreleasesDmitriyKamenshchikfromhousearrest

Thereleaseorderwasmadeon1JulySeethe19Mayand3Junenotes.
http://crimerussia.com/en/gromkie-dela/the-moscow-city-court-discharged-dmitry-kamenshchik/
ThePresidiumoftheMoscowCityCourtallowedaremedialactionorderbythefirst
deputyprosecutor-generalVladimirMalinovsky,whodemandedthereleaseoftheownerof
DomodedovoairportDmitryKamenshchikfromhousearrest.AccordingtoRBK,hecan
removeanelectronicanklebraceletassoonastheFederalPenitentiaryServiceofRussia
receivesallthenecessarydocuments.

TheProsecutorGeneral'sOfficehasseveraltimesdemandedcriminalchargesagainst
topmanagersoftheairportbedroppedHowever,theInvestigativeCommitteeofthe
RussianFederationoverturnedtheremedialactionorderoftheprocuracyandcontinued
theinvestigation

AmericancompanywillresumebusinessinCrimea

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/first-american-company-to-return-to-
crimea-since-russia-sanctions/574325.html

TheCourseraonlineeducationalservicehasreceivedpermissionfromtheU.S.governmenttooperate
inCrimea,theKommersantnewspaperreportedonTuesday.

Courseratheworld'slargestonlinelearningplatformhasbeenunavailabletoresidentsofthe
annexedpeninsulasinceFeb.1,2015inconnectionwithsanctionsplacedonRussiabytheU.S.

Manymembersoftheeducationalcommunitywereopposedtothis,sayingthateducationshouldbe
availabletopeoplearoundtheworld.

IdonotknowasingleAmericanprofessorwhosupportedtheserestrictions[onaccessingCoursera]
inCrimea,saidIsaacFruminfromtheHigherSchoolofEconomics,Kommersantreported.

InesRoman,aspokespersonforCoursera,statedinJunethattheU.S.OfficeofForeignAssets
ControlgavethewebsiteaspeciallicensetoworkinCrimea.
Wethinkitisveryimportantthattheopportunitytoreceiveabettereducationisavailableto
everyone,wherevertheylive,saidthespokesperson.

KlintsevichsaysSnowdencooperatedwithRussianintelligence

http://20committee.com/2016/07/02/the-kremlin-admits-snowden-is-a-russian-agent/

Now,theKremlinhassettledtheissueonceandforallbystatingthatEdwardSnowdenisindeedtheirman.
Inaremarkableinterviewthisweek,FranzKlintsevich,aseniorRussiansecurityofficial,explainedthecase
matter-of-factly:Letsbefrank.Snowdendidshareintelligence.Thisiswhatsecurityservicesdo.Iftheresa
possibilitytogetinformation,theywillgetit.

Withthis,KlintsevichsimplysaidwhatallintelligenceprofessionalsalreadyknewthatSnowdenisa
collaboratorwiththeFSB.ThathereallyhadnochoiceinthematteroncehesetfootinRussiadoesnot
changethefacts.

Klintsevichisnoidlespeculator.HeisasenatorwhohasservedintheStateDumafornearlyadecade.More
importantly,heisthedeputychairofthesenatesdefenseandsecuritycommittee,whichoverseesthespecial
services.The59-year-oldKlintsevichthushasaccesstomanystatesecretsforinstanceregardingthe
Snowdencase.

HeisalsoaretiredRussianarmycolonel,havingserved22yearsintheeliteAirborneForces(VDV).
KlintsevichsawactioninAfghanistaninthe1980swiththeVDVand,basedonacarefulreadingofhis
biography,appearstohaveservedwithGRU,thatismilitaryintelligence(hisworkinspecialpropagandain
Afghanistanandhis1991graduationfromtheLeninMilitary-PoliticalAcademyareindicationsofhisGRU
affiliation).

Klintsevichisnotawell-knownfigureoutsideRussiaheappearedintheWesternpressbrieflyin2012with
hisshort-livedideatobuyHitlersbirthhouseinBraunau,inordertodestroyitbutheisawell-connected
memberoftheKremlinsrulingelite.GivenhissenatecommitteepositionandhisGRUpast,thereisnodoubt
thatKlintsevichisconsiderednash(ours)byRussiasspecialservices.

HisstatementoutingSnowdensrelationshipwiththeKremlinthereforecannotbeanaccidentoraslipofthe
tongue.Forwhateverreason,PutinhasdecidedtooutSnowdenasthecollaboratorthatheactuallyisand
hasbeenforthreeyearsalready.

OnereasonforthismaybeSnowdensrecenttepidcriticismviaTwitterofRussiasdraconiannewlawson
domesticsurveillancewhichvastlyexceedanyoftheactivitiesoftheWesterndemocraciesthatSnowden
hassostronglycriticizedfromhisFSBhideaway.Indeed,hishostsfinallyallowingtheirAmerican
collaboratortotweetnegativelyaboutRussiamanyhadnotedSnowdenssilenceonFSBrepressionand
worsemaybeasignthatthedefectorhasoutlivedhisusefulness.

Intruth,SnowdenwasneverallthatwellinformedaboutAmericanintelligence.Contrarytothemythsthathe
andhismouthpieceshavepropagated,hewasnomorethananITsystemsadministrator.Snowdenwasnever
anysortofbonafidespy.TherearenoindicationshereallyunderstandsmostofwhathestolefromNSA.

TheFSBthereforemilkedSnowdenofanyvaluableinformationratherquickly.Helikelyhadlittlelighttoshed
onthemillion-plussecretfileshestole.Instead,hisvaluetoMoscowhasbeenasakeyplayerinKremlin
propagandadesignedtodiscredittheWesternintelligencealliance.

Inthatrole,SnowdenhasdoneagreatdealofdamagetotheWest.ButhewasneveramoleforMoscow
insideNSA.Inreality,theSnowdenOperationisprobablyacovertodeflectattentionfromtheoneormore
actualRussianmoleswhohavebeenlurkinginsideNSAforyears,undetected.

BasedonthecasesofpreviousWesternintelligencedefectorstoMoscow,EdwardSnowdenfacesan
unhappyfuture.Whateverhappenstohimisuptohishosts,whocontrolallaspectsofanydefectorslife.
TherenolongercanbeanyhonestdebateabouthisrelationshipwiththeKremlin,whichhassettledthe
matteronceandforall.PutinandhisspecialservicesconsiderSnowdentobenashthereisnoquestion
aboutthatnow.

(ThisarticleoriginallyappearedinBILDinGerman,youcanreadthathere.)

Novirusfoundinthismessage.
CheckedbyAVG-www.avg.com
Version:2016.0.7640/VirusDatabase:4613/12565-ReleaseDate:07/05/16
From: WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>
Senttime: 07/06/201603:52:04PM
To: WayneandStacyAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>
Subject: InternetNotes6July2016
Attachments: IN6July16.docx

InternetNotes6July2016

StanovayaontheregimesfivedilemmasoverBelykh

NobailforBelykh

NovayaGazetaonthesilovikywar(FSBvs.FSOMurov/MikhalchenkoThesilovikycadresshakeup)

Putincancelsallmeetingsforthenextweek

VladimirFrolovonPutinsNewdtente

StanovayaontheregimesfivedilemmasoverBelykh

http://slon.ru/posts/70141

ItsapparentthatthefundamentalrulesofthegamearechangingThedirectionvlastwilltakedependsonhowtheregimesolves
somedilemmas

#1:TheBlackcashboxaprivilegeorbusinessasusual?BelykhclaimsthatthemoneyhewaspickingupataMoscow
restaurantwasnotabribe,butoff-the-bookscashforregionaldevelopmentInRussia,suchablackcashbox,likebribery,is
inevitable.Thewholeverticalofpowerrunsoffsuchcash.Thequestionishowitisorganizedmoreexperiencedplayerssetup
charitablefundsthatbusinesscontributesto.Inothercases,thecashispassedalonginabag.Backin2007,journalistNatalia
MorarwroteaboutthePresidentialAdministrationpassingalongcashtopoliticalparties.Belykh,asaleaderoftheUnionofRight
Forces,hadtoknowaboutthat.Sotheregimeisfacedwiththequestionofwhetherblackcashboxesshouldcontinueifso,
thenwhohastherighttomakeuseofthem?Insteadofbusinessasusual,willtheybeaprivilegefewareentitledto?Itsclearthat
neitherPutinnortheSKhavethoughtthisthroughwhatshappeningnowisjustaconsequenceoftheregimeaimingtosurvive.
Butitsobviouswewillseemoresuchincidentsinthenexttwo-threeyears.

#2:Aretheliberalsafifthcolumnorapartnerofvlast?ThedifferencebetweenBelykhandgovernorswhowerearrestedearlier
KhoroshavinandGayzeristhatBelykhwaspartofabalancingelementamongtheokhranitelyandthesystemicliberals.
Belykhcametopowerin2009,atatimetheKremlinwasplayingagamewiththeurbanmiddleclass.Belykhsarrestisa
seriousblowtothattime(thetimeofSurkov)andeffortstoincorporatethepotentialnesoglasnikhintothesystem.Belykhwasa
linkbetweenamaturingBolotnayaandtheKremlin.Now,withpressureonallthosewholooktotheWest,allsuchlinksareno
longeroperative.ThesignificanceofBelykhsarrestisbeingunder-estimated.Thesilovikyarehopingtogoafterthosethey
considerpartofthefifthcolumn,andpeoplelikeSurkov,Kudrin,Gref,Chubays,Medvedevandhiscirclearevulnerable
(Comment:Iwascommentingonbalancingtheotherday,thinkingthatPutinsrecentmovestoboostZolotovand
apparentlyweakenotherpowerdepartmentsliketheFSBandtheMVDmightworktheoppositeofwhatheintended
preventinganypalacecoupslesstrustedsilovikymightgetinvolvedinduringaseriouscrisis.Ialsonotedthat
Putinhadattemptedsomemodestbalancingmeasures,likesendingtheFSKNandtheFMStotheMVDas
compensationforthelossoftheInternalTroops.AndIthoughtthatKudrinscomingbackintothepicturemighthave
beenabalancingstep(partlyone)meanttocalmdownthesystemicliberalsbutcampaigns,announcedornot,
haveamomentumoftheirown.IdoubttheimplicationsofarrestingBelykhwerethoughtthroughandweread
yesterdaythatPutinmaynothaveevenknownthatBelykhwouldbeingarrestedbeforehand(Stanovayatakesupthe
ideathatPutindoesnotgiveagoaheadoneachcasebelow.Hertakeseemsaboutrighttomespeakingofnot
givingagoaheadbeforehand,IdontbelievePutinapprovedtheNemtsovkilling,either).Theplayerstendtobe
reactive,lessthoughtfulchessplayersthanmostimagine.SoBelykhsarrest,whichcouldbeviewedasanaturalstep
inawaveofmeasurestoprotecttheregimefromanypossibleweaklinks,canbecomeaproblem.Wealsoread
(again)yesterdaythattheFSBUSBsFeoktistovwasinchargeoftheoperationaimedatBelykhandOrlovahas
claimedthatZolotovistheprotectorandunofficialoverseeroftheFSBUSBfromthe29Junenotes:[Comment:We
havereadelsewherethatZolotovsolddepartmentthePresidentialSecurityService,partoftheFSO,wasbeingusedbyPutinasacadres
reserve(see,forinstance,the2Junenotes)andIvearguedthatZolotovsrisemakessenseinviewofthecrisis,Putinssuspicions,elitefears,
andPutinsnarrowingclosecircle(Seemycommentsinyesterdaysnotes).Iftheauthorofthearticleabove,KarinaOrlova,iscorrectand
ZolotovisoverseerandprotectoroftheFSBUSB,thenitalsomakessensethatthedirectoratewouldbeusedtopurgeuntrustworthy(or
potentiallyuntrustworthy)figures(SeemytakeonBelykhsarrestinthe27Junenotes),andwouldgrowininfluenceandexpanditsterritory.
OneofoursourcesclaimedthatYakovlevwasaBortnikovprotginthatcase,ifZolotovreallyisthepowerbehindtheUSB,Yakovlevs
departurefromFSBSEBmakessenseinthecontextoftheFSBvsFSObattle(see,forinstance,the2Junenotes)andthetensionsfollowingthe
Nemtsovmurder.]).Itisthatpartoftheestablishmentthatisunderpressure.TheonlypersontheycanappealtoisPutin.The
Belykhexampleisatrumpcardinthegameagainsttheliberals.

#3Aregovernorselitesorordinaryexecutives?Inabitmorethanayear,threegovernorshavebeenarrested.Onceisan
exception,twiceatendency,thethirdtimearule.Wearewitnessingacriticallyimportanttransformationwithintheregime.The
governorsweremadepartofthevertical,thenbecameakeysupportgroupfortheregime,andnowareavulnerablepartofthe
system.Agovernorsposthasbecomepoliticallydangerous.Acriticaldelimitationbetweentheverytopofthesystem,withits
privilegesandimmunity,andtherestisbeingmade(Comment:Seemyremarksaboveonthenarrowingcircleoftrust).This
ishavinganimpactonnotonlythegovernors,butmembersofUnitedRussia,deputies,highly-placedofficials(includingdeputy
ministers),andtheheadsofmajorcompanies.Thecompetitionwithintheeliteforbenefitsisincreasing,whilethenumberof
availablebenefitsisdecreasing.

Questionis,iftheKremlinnolongervaluesthegovernors,thenhowcanitprovideforpoliticalcontrol?Upuntilnow,nomatter
whowasappointedgovernor,theKremlincouldbesureofloyalty,dependingonloyalpersons(whichmeantamemberofthe
systemicoppositioncouldbecomeagovernorComment:AnotherinterestingpointtoponderasInotedearlier,the
KremlinseffortstoassertpoweroverthesilovikyviatheNationalGuardandZolotovsrisecouldbackfire,producing
thekindofdisloyaltytheKremlinmayhavesuspectedwaslurkingamongthepowerdepartments.Thesamecould
betrueofthegovernorsnotnow,theywillbehunkeringdownandtryingtoprotectthemselves,butinaserious
political/social/economiccrisis).ThegovernorspostinrelationtotheKremlinisbecomingmoretechnical.
#4Thesilovikyaretheyaninstrumentoranindependentforce?ThepoliticalfieldinRussiahasbeenmonopolized.Thereal
powerstruggleisinanarrowcircleofpeopleclosetoPutin.Thepublicspherehasbeende-politicized,butanon-publicsortof
politicsisaliveontheperiphery.ThedomesticpoliticalsphereisgraduallybeingdividedbetweenthePresidentialAdministrations
domesticpoliticsdepartment(whichhandlespoliticaldecorations)andthesiloviky,whoaretakinguponthemselvestheroleof
scenarist.Soarethesilovikyindependentactorsoraninstrumentforperformingtasksassignedfromabove?
EkhoMoskvyChiefEditorAlekseyVenediktov,whoisalsoafriendofBelykhs,tellushowPutincouldhavesanctionedthe
arresthesimplysaidFollowthelaw,whichiswhathesupposedlysaidbeforethearrestofKhodorkovskiy.Butthesituation
haschangedin2003,Putinwasgoingafterhispoliticalenemies,nowhemoreoftenleavesituptothesilovikytomakeacall.
Anexclusiveprecedentin2003canbecomeroutinein2016ifthedemi-urgestaysoutofit.In2003,thesilovikytookon
precisiontasks.Todayitismorelikeaconveyorbelt.Lawenforcementisnowlookingovertheentirepoliticalclass.Theidea
thatthereisapacketofkompromatoneveryoneandonlythepresidentcangivethego-aheadonacaseislosingforce.Today,the
presidentdoesntgiveago-ahead,butstillhastheprivilegeofputtingthebrakeson,somethingthatcanhappenonlyisheisaware
ofwhatsgoingon.YoucantcallPutin?Thentheymaycomeforyou.

#5Themostinterestingquestionofallishowfarcanthesystemgoinprosecutingitsown?Whereistheborderbetweenthose
whohaveimmunityandthosewhodont?Areministersatriskofbeingarrested?Howdoesthesystemrecognizethosewhose
arrestwoulddestabilizethesystemitselforthosewhobyremainingfreethreatende-stabilization?Asthecircleofpotentialvictims
expands,thestatesrepressivestructuresgrowstrongerThetendencytorepressiongrows,asrepressionbecomeslessselective
andlawenforcementbecomesmoreexperiencedatpracticingrepression.Someseetheeconomiccrisisasgivingliberalizationa
chance,butitcouldhavetheoppositeeffectandintimetherepressivepowercouldgrowstrongerthanthoseconsideredthe
foundersofthesystem.

NobailforBelykh

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/russian-governor-held-on-corruption-charges-refused-bail/574422.html

AMoscowcourthasrefusedtobailKirovregiongovernorNikitaBelykh,whowasarrestedlastmonthoncorruptioncharges,theTASS
newsagencyreportedWednesday.

Belykhslawyershadappealedtothecourtforthepoliticiantobeplacedunderhousearrestorreleasedonbailof28millionrubles
($430,000),TASSreported.

Theinvestigationhasnogroundsforkeepinghimunderarrestbutthecourttooknonotice,saidVadimProkhorov,Belykhslawyer.
ProkhorovsaidthathisclientshealthwasdeterioratinginprisonandmaintainedthatBelykhwasnotabribe-taker.Healsotold
journaliststhatBelykhwaspreparedtogototheEuropeanCourtofHumanRightstoappealhisdetentionandtoclearhisname,TASS
reported.

BelykhhasbeenheldinpretrialdetentionsincehewasarrestedinaMoscowrestaurantlastmonthandchargedwithreceivingbribes
worth400thousandeuros($442thousand).Themoneywasallegedlymeanttoensurethegovernorpromotedtheinterestsoftwo
companiesintheKirovregion.

Belykh,aformeroppositionpartyleader,haspubliclysaidthatthecaseagainsthimwasnotpoliticallymotivated.Hemaintainshis
innocence,claimingthathereceivedthemoneylegallytospendonservicesfortheKirovregion.

AhostofliberalpoliticalfigureshavecomeoutinsupportofBelykhsincehisarrest,includingtheleaderoftheYablokoparty,Grigory
Yavlinsky,thechiefeditorofradiostationEkhoMoskvyandtheDumamemberDmitryGudkov.

BelykhisthethirdgovernorofaRussianregiontobearrestedoncorruptionchargesinthelasttwoyears.

NovayaGazetaonthesilovikywar(FSBvs.FSOMurov/MikhalchenkoThesilovikycadresshakeup)

http://www.novayagazeta.ru/inquests/73735.html

Ahighly-placedFSBofficertellsNovayathatBelykhsarrestexceededtheboundsofunderstoodauthorityusually,anymoves
involvingapersonappointedbythepresidenthavetobeclearedbythefirstperson,butinBelykhscaseeventheoperational
workbeforethearrestwasnotclearedaheadoftimewiththepresident.Informationwasgatheredunderthecoverofgathering
materialonNavalniy.ThesourcetellsNovayathatformonthsnow,aconflictbetweenFSBers,ledbySergeyIvanov,andFSO
peoplewhowereheadedformallyandinformallybynowex-FSOchiefYevgeniyMurov,hasbeenunderway.Thesourcesays
thatthecreationoftheNationalGuardwasavictoryfortheFSOsideoftheconflict.Itsnotthemobthatweareafraidof,says
thesource,buteachother(Comment:Shulmansaidsomethingsimilarbackinthe27Maynotes).Andthereisabasisfor
fearthemostseriousfunctiongrantedtotheNationalGuardistheoperational-investigativefunction.Theresnoguaranteethat
theNatsguardwillnotusethatfunctiontogoafterFSBpersonnelpostedtoministries,intheregions,andinmajorbanksand
enterprises.TheFSOalsopostsitscadresoutsideserviceeverygovernorsoffice,forexample,hasanFSOofficerkeeping
watch,maybeasheadofthegovernorsapparatus,ormaybeasanaideortakingoverthegovernorspost(Comment:Thats
areferencetoaformerFSOman,Dyumin,takingoverasTulagovernor).

FSOsourcesconfirmthattheFSBclantookthecreationoftheNatsguardhard.AtthesametimetheNatsguardwasbeing
created,therewassomelobbying(Comment:Whodidthelobbying?)tocreateanewMinistryofStateSecurity(MGB)that
wouldincludetheFSB,theFSO,andtheSVR.Murov,however,managedtodefendtheindependenceoftheFSO.Withoutthe
FSO,creatinganMGBdidntmakesense.ButthewheelswerealreadyturningoncreatingtheNatsguard.TheFSBclancould
notsitbyandwatchtheFSOgrowstronger,soablowagainstthemwasdeliveredon16MarchwhenDmitriyMikhalchenkowas
arrested.TheFSBknowsfullwellthatMurovwasMikhalchenkospatron.MurovalsosupposedlyintroducedMikhalchenkoto
Putin,recommendinghimasabusinessmanwhogenerouslysupportedthepresidentsinitiatives.Mikhalchenkowasactually
arrestedtwicethefirsttime,theofficerheadingtheoperationcalledMurovandMikhalchenkowassubsequentlyreleased.He
wasreprimandedfordoingsoandagainarrestedMikhalchenko.Afewdayslater,theFSBreportedtoPutinaboutthearrestand
theroleoftheFSOclaninMikhalchenkosbusinessschemes.Murovsfatewaspracticallydecidedonthatveryday.

AnotherFSBvictorywastheliquidationoftheFSKNViktorIvanovwasaheavyweightintheFSOclan.TheFSBthenmoved
togetridofFSO-connectedpeoplewithintheFSBapparatus,themostprominentonebeingtheheadofDirectorateKofFSB
EconomicSecurity(FSBSEB),ViktorVoronin(Comment:Therewasabitinthe9JunenotesthatclaimedVoroninwas
closetoViktorIvanov.IwonderedwhetherthefateofIvanovwashavinganimpactonpeopleconnectedtohimlike
LarisaKalanda).VoroninsdeparturewasfollowedbymuchtalkofmoreturnoveratFSB.Butcadreturnoverhasbeen
draggedoutsomesaythattheFSBclangrewnervousandmadeafatalmistakebyarrestingBelykh.BothFSBandFSO
sourcessaythattheKirovFSBoverplayeditshandandexceededitsunderstoodauthoritybymakingthearrest.Firstofall,
PutinwasnotinformedabouttheoperationalexperimentagainstBelykh.

ItcouldbethataftertheBelykharrest,anumberofchangesthatwereintheworksatFSBSEBwerehalted.IvanTkachevofthe
6thDirectorateofFSBInternalSecurity(FSBUSB)wassupposedtotakeoverasheadofDirectorateKatFSBSEB,butis
nowsupposedlyslatedforthe1s tdeputyspot.Thewordisthattheheadofthedirectoratewillbeitscurrent1s tdeputychief,
AndreyYegorov.Otherchangesthathavebeentalkedaboutwonthappen.

Comment:Alright,letsseeifwecanmakesomesenseofthisOntheMGBstory,letsbackuptothenotesfrom20
JunethematerialinthosenotesonforminganewMGBorMinistryforPublicSecurity(MOB)seemedtopointtoa
strengtheningofZolotovsposition,withtheNatsguardbeingusedtopurgetheoldpowerstructuresandscreen
officersforpositionsintheMGB.ThematerialfromNovayasaysthatMurovopposedtheMGBprojectandwasable
tosavehisFSO,whichundercuttheMBG/MOBplan.WeusuallythinkofMurovandZolotovasallies,butoneof
oursourceshadZolotovdriftingawayfromhisoldbossandsettingupshoponhisownasNationalGuardchief
(AlekseyMakarkinclaimedinthe2JunenotesthatMurovsdeparturewasavictoryforZolotovasMurovwas
replacedbyKochnev,amanfromtheservicethatZolotovhadheaded,thePresidentialSecurityService.Onereason
IvehadZolotovasabigwinner,bigenoughtoreallyupsetthebalanceamongthesiloviky,isthatsomeofour
sources,Makarkinwasone,havesaidthatPutinisntusingtheFSOasawholeforacadresreserve,hesusingthe
Zolotov-connectedPresidentialSecurityServiceforthat),somaybehesupportedtheMGB/MOBoperation.
Nevertheless,Murovisgonesowhatkindofcloutdoeshehavenowthatcouldpreventthemergergoingforward?
ItwouldmakesensethatiftheendgamewasaMGB/MOBstaffedwithpeoplescreenedbyZolotovthattheFSBand
Bortnikovwouldopposeit.WhileMurovsleavingmayatleasthavenotbeenopposedbyZolotov,maybethat
retirementandthedeep-sixingoftheMGB/MOBprojectwascompensationtotheFSBforthecreationofthe
Natsguard,whichpracticallyallofoursourceshaveseenasamovethatweakenstheFSB.Ofcourse,thatdoesnot
meanthatPutinisntinfavorofapurgeandvettingofthepowerstructures,aprocessthatmightbesupervisedby
Zolotov.Wellhavetowaitandseeaboutthat.IsuspectitwonthappenthatPutinwillholdback.Thereareplenty
ofotherswhomightopposesuchasuper-concentrationofpowerintheNatsguardandIvewrittenthatmovesmeant
topreventapalacecoupcouldbackfireifthereisaperceptionthatoneplayerisgettingtoostrong.

IvewrittenonMikhalchenkosarrestlikelybeingasignthatMurovwasweakened(Seethe21and31March
notes).Mikhalchenkoalsoturnedupinthe30Marchand26,27,and31Mayand7,9,and10Junenotes.Abitin
the9JunenotesfromKommersanthadVoroninasclosetoMikhalchenko(Andwesawaclaiminthosesamenotes
thatRomodanovskiyofthenow-defunctFMSwasaprotgofVIvanovaswell).Therewassomeconfusionabout
Mikhalchenkoskryshainthe9and10Junenotes,IwentoverapiececlaimingthatMikhalchenkowasinvolvedin
thekillingofRomanTsepovinSt.Petersburgbackin2004.Inthatscenario,Mikhalchenkowasconnectedtothe
FSB,whileTsepovwasclosetotheFSOpeople,especiallyZolotov,andthe(reportedly)ViktorIvanov-connected
Romodanovskiy,who,likeZolotov,attendedTsepovsfuneral.

BothTsepovandMikhalchenkohadawebofconnectionstovariouspowerdepartments.ButTsepovstieswere
strongestwithFSOpeople,apparently.Connectionschangeovertimeandoverlap.Upuntilearly2004,Bortnikov
wasinSt.PetersburgmaybeheandMikhalchenkoestablishedafirmrelationship,whileMikhalchnekoalsohad
somelinesouttotheFSOpeople.Couldbethatare-alignmentofkryshastookplacesometimeafterTsepovs
murderandMikhalchenkossteppingintotakeoverTsepovsnicheintheNorthernCapital.Anothercomplicating
factorasmentionedabove,RomodanovskiywenttoTsepovsfuneral.Butabitinthe9Junenotessaidhewasclose
toMikhalchenkoandcouldbeimplicatedinthecaseagainsthim.

OnTkachevheisfromtheFSBUSB.HewassupposedtotakeoveratFSBSEB(See,forinstance,the10June
notes).SeemycommentsaboveaboutOrlovastakeontheFSBUSBbeinginZolotovssphereofinfluence.
Yakovlev,whowassaidtobeaBortnikovprotg,wasreportedlyreplacedatFSBSEBbyInternalSecuritys
Korolev.DidKorolevinfactgetthejob?Abitinthe14Junenotesclaimedthathehadalreadytakenoverasheadof
FSBSEB.ThatsamebitsaidthatKorolevwasresponsibleforthecriminalcasethatcosttheFSBSEBsheadof
DirectorateK,ViktorVoronin,hispost,aswellasheadofFSBSEBYakovlevlosinghis.Morechangeswere
supposedlyontheway,butNovayaclaimstheywonthappen.Sothemaneuveringiscontinuing.

Putincancelsallmeetingsforthenextweek

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/putin-cancels-all-meetings-for-a-week/574433.html

RussianPresidentVladimirPutinhascancelledallplannedengagementsfortherestoftheweek,theRBCnewspaperreported
Wednesday,citingKremlinsources.

Thereasonsforthecancellationsisasyetunknown.KremlinspokespersonDmitryPeskovtoldjournaliststhatnoneofPutins
scheduledtripshadbeendecidedlyconfirmed.

AStateCouncilmeetinginAltaiwhichPutinhadbeenduetoattendwascancelledonTuesdayandhasnowbeenindefinitely
postponed.HisappearanceataneventinYakutiaonThursdaywasalsocancelled,RBCreported.

Iwouldntdramatizethesituation,saidEgorBorisov,PresidentoftheYakutiaRegion.Theheadofstatehasaschedulewhichcanbe
changed.

PutinhasnotattendedapubliceventsincehisofficialvisittoFinlandonFridayJuly1.

ItisnotthefirsttimethattheRussianleaderhasdisappearedfromthepubliceye.Putinalsocancelledallengagementsanddisappeared
frompublicviewfor11daysinMarchlastyear.

VladimirFrolovonPutinsNewdtente

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/opinion/article/a-modest-deal-vladimir-putin-s-new-d-tente-op-ed/574322.html
RussianPresidentVladimirPutinisindeconflictionmodewiththeWestafterawildrideoftwoandahalfyearsofmilitaryanddiplomatic
tensions.

InawiderangingpolicyspeechatabiannualmeetingofRussianambassadorsonJuly1,Putindidnotjustgothroughtheregularlitany
ofcomplaintsovertheWestignoringRussia'sinterests,NATOexpansion,U.S.unilateralism,missiledefenseandoverthrowingregimes
in"colorrevolutions."Heeschewedsaber-rattlingoverNATO'sdecisionstodeployadditionalforcesintheBaltics,calledWestern
countriespartnersincreatinga"broadanti-terroristfront,"andemphasizedRussia'sinterestin"closecooperationwiththeUnitedStates
oninternationalaffairs."

Onlytwoweeksbefore,attheSt.PetersburgInternationalEconomicForum,PutinsaidRussiaacceptedtheUnitedStatesasthe"only
superpower"andwantedtoworkwithit,providedtheUnitedStateskeptitsdemocracylecturestoitself.OnavisittoFinlandafewdays
ago,PutinagreedtoholdameetingoftheRussia-NATOCouncilafterNATO'sWarsawsummitthisweek,acceptedNATO'sproposal
forpreventingmilitaryairandseaincidentsandinstructedRussia'sdefenseministertoflyRussianmilitaryplanesovertheBalticSeawith
theirtransponderson.

Sinceearly2016,PutinandotherseniorRussianofficialshavebeensignalingMoscow'sinterestinde-escalatingtensionswiththeWest.
TheywanttonormalizerelationsMoscowviewsasgoingbacktopre-Crimea,bracketingitoutasRussiaandtheWestmanagedtodo
afterRussia's2008warwithGeorgia,withoutanyrollbackofRussianpoliciestoexertcontroloverUkraine.

MoscowhasbeentakingstockofitsforcefulpoliciestoreassertRussia'sstatusasaglobalpowerandtorollbacktheexpansion
ofWesterninstitutionsintotheformerSovietspacethatRussiaviewsasitsrightfulsphereofinfluence.Thesepoliciesofmanaged
confrontationwiththeWestoverUkraineandlaterSyriahavebeenwidelypopularwiththedomesticaudienceinRussiaover60
percentthinkRussia'sforeignpolicyissuccessfulandboostedPutin'sdomesticsupporttostratosphericlevels.

Yet,actualpolicyresultshavebeensomewhatunderwhelming.MoscowhasprovenitsabilitytowreckUkrainetopreventitfromjoining
Westernalliances.ButthecostshavebeenenormousbothintermsofWesterneconomicsanctions,diplomaticisolationandaruined
relationshipwithacloseneighbor.Yet,theWesthasrefusedtorecognizeRussia'ssphereofinfluenceandhasignoredcallstofleshout
anewYaltaagreementonthepost-ColdWarsettlement.Moscow'smilitarypositionwithregardtotheWesthasactuallydeterioratedas
NATObeganapplyingtheworst-caseassumptionstoMoscow'sirresponsiblesaber-rattlingandunpredictablebehaviorandbeganplanning
foradditionaltroopdeployments,araceMoscowcouldnotwin.ThepolicyofaggressivelydeterringtheUnitedStatesandNATOwas
fastapproachingapointofdiminishingreturns.

Russiahasweatheredthesanctions'impactanditseconomydidnotcollapse.Butthesanctionshavebeenlimitedanditbecameclearthat
amoreforcefulWesternresponse,likebansonexportstotheEUandthesuspensionofSWIFTtransactionscouldhaveresultedina
devastatingblowtoRussia'seconomy,whileapivottoAsiaprovedhardertoachieve.

Moscow'sdaringmilitaryinterventioninSyriain2015succeededinpiercingRussia'sisolationoverUkraineandwassomewhat
breathtakinglyhailedasthecountry'sascensiontotheeliteclubonaparwiththeUnitedStates,capableofdeployingmilitaryforceabroad
toaffectpoliticaloutcomes.RussiamayhaverescuedSyrianPresidentBasharAssad'sregimefromamilitarydefeat,butitsinvestment
ofbloodandtreasurehasboughtitonlymoreAssadandsomelimitedcooperationwiththeUnitedStates.Now,almostayearafterits
intervention,MoscowisstillstuckinSyriaandisonthevergeofowningitsmessofacivilwarIranissharinginthisinvestment.It
desperatelyneedsapoliticalexittodeclarevictoryandgohome,butthatcouldonlybeengineeredthroughcooperationwiththeUnited
States,Turkey(hencethelatestrapprochement)andSaudiArabia.

VladimirFrolovisapoliticalanalyst.

From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 07/06/201609:59:17PM
To: WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>
Cc: PeterReddaway<pbreddaway@gmail.com>
Subject: Re:InternetNotes5July2016

ItwasntFSBofficersinStPitwasofficersfromtheUSBFSB(centralapparatus)whowentafterMikhalchenko.
ItsnotcleartomethatBortnikovwashiskryshaitisclearMurovwas.

OnJul6,2016,at4:21PM,WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>wrote:

IllhavesomemoreonMikhalchenkoandFSBvsFSOintodaysnotes.

From:PeterReddaway[mailto:pbreddaway@gmail.com]
Sent:Wednesday,July06,201610:01AM
To:RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>;WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>
Subject:Re:InternetNotes5July2016

T
hisisagoodpoint,andremindsmethatIwasoftenstruckby
Mikhalchenko'sremarkablespeedandaggressivenessinacquiring/seizing
assets(andnodoubtpassingagoodpercentageofthevalueto
Bortnikov).ThismusthaveprovokedenvyandangerinalotofFSB
officersinSPB.

P

OnWed,Jul6,2016at2:03AM,RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>wrote:

Ifthisisthecase,itsmoreinterestingthanyoumightthinkatfirstblushsinceitwastheFSBthatwentafter
Mikhalchenko.




OnJul5,2016,at6:38PM,PeterReddaway<pbreddaway@gmail.com>wrote:

W
ayne,

V.interestingaboutPutin'sapparentthreatstoBortnikov(p.3).
LinksupwithwhatBobremindedmeabouttheotherday(and
Iforwardedtoyou),namelythatBortnikovwas-forsome
yearsatleast-Mikhalchenko'skrysha.SoM'sarrestwas
probablyonemorePutinthreattoBortnikov.

Best,

Peter

OnTue,Jul5,2016at6:27PM,WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>wrote:

InternetNotes5July2016

FSBraidonEkhoMoskvy(PiontkovskiyApalacecoupandatransitionalperiod:
Piontkovskiy/Khodorkovskiy/Illarionov).1

Piontkovskiyonsilovikyshakeups.3

SoloveysaystheKremlindoesntcareforBortnikov.3

SergeyKanevonBelykh.3

PutinappointstwoZolotovNationalGuarddeputies.4

PutingivesRolduginanaward..4

Whoistoblame?(Fortheeconomiccrisis).4

TheReserveFundwillrunoutin2017?.5

MoscowCityCourtreleasesDmitriyKamenshchikfromhousearrest.6

AmericancompanywillresumebusinessinCrimea.6

KlintsevichsaysSnowdencooperatedwithRussianintelligence.7

FSBraidonEkhoMoskvy(PiontkovskiyApalacecoupandatransitionalperiod:
Piontkovskiy/Khodorkovskiy/Illarionov)

http://www.newsru.com/russia/05jul2016/echo_print.html

AccordingtoEkhoChiefEditorAlekseyVenediktov,theraidtookplaceonTuesday.TheFSB
wasafterEkhose-mailcorrespondencewithpublicistAndreyPiontkovskiy.SomeEkho
employeeshavebeencalledinforquestioningbytheFSBandMVD.EditorVitaliyRuvinskiywas
questionedaboutNavalniysblogattheMVDandonPiontkovskiysattheFSB.Venediktov
himselfisonatriptoGenevaAcriminalcasehasbeenopenedagainstPiontkovskiyforpublic
callsforactionsthatwouldviolatetheterritorialintegrityoftheRussianFederation.

InJanuary,IrinaYarovayaoftheDumaSecurityCommitteesentarequestforareviewtothe
ProsecutorsofficeconcerningaPiontkovskiyarticle(ABombAbouttoGoOff)thatwas
postedontheEkhowebsite.Beforethat,asimilarrequesthadbeenmadebytheChairmanofthe
ChechenParliament,MagomedDaudov,whoclaimedthatPiontkovskiywascallingforChechnya
tobeseparatedfromtheRussianFederation.PiontkovskiyleftRussiaon19Februaryafterthe
Prosecutorsofficehaduncoveredwhatitsaidwasevidenceofextremisminhiswriting.

TheBombarticleappearedon23January.ItcalledfortheseparationofChechnyafrom
Russia.Ekhosubsequentlydeletedthelasttwoparagraphsofthearticle.Thearticlesaidthat
RussiahadlosttheChechenwarandwasnowpayingoffGrozny,financingpalacesandgolden
pistolsfortheChechenleaders,whileunemployedyouthswentofftofightfortheIslamists.
PiontkovskiyfurtherclaimedthatsilovikywhoareunhappywithKadyrovmaystartathird
Chechenwar.

Piontkovskiyslastcolumn,dated27June,wasaboutthearrestofKirovGovernorNikitaBelykh
(Seethenotesfrom27,28,and29June),whichPiontkovskiyattributedtoanunderthecarpet
battleamongKremlinclans.TheinternalKremlinjunta,accordingtoPiontkovskiy,sensesthe
ruinousstateoftheregimeandistryingtopreserveitswellbeingbypurgingpartner-
competitorsinpreparationforatransitionalperiod.

AndreyIllarionovre-postedthePiontkovskiyBombarticle:
http://aillarionov.livejournal.com/894698.html

Asfarasthesiloviky,Kadyrov,andtheNemtsovmurder,Piontkovskiy
toldKasparov.ru(http://www.kasparov.ru/material.php?id=576E441AD5B89)thatPutincannot
removeKadyrovthatwouldbeanacknowledgementthathispolicyintheCaucasushad
collapsed,bringingintoquestionthelegitimacyoftheregime(sinceitwasVVPsactionson
Chechnyathathadhelpedbringhimtopower).Theregimeisenteringaninevitablephaseof
possiblepalacecoups(followingthedefeatoftheRussianworldconceptinUkraine)and
PutinmaythrowabonetothesilovikyintheformofsomeoneclosetoKadyrovwhowas
implicatedintheNemtsovmurderNavalniyandKhodorkovskiyhavejoinedintheattackson
Kadyrovandhavesaidthattheregimewillchangenotviaelections,butthroughaseriesofpalace
coups(PiontkovskiycallsthesilovikyattacksonKadyrovasluggishon-goingcoup).
PiontkovskiygoesonaboutKhodorkovskiytellingSlon(http://slon.ru/posts/69549)thata
juntaof7-9wouldemergeafterapalacecoup,theleadersofwhichwouldhavearmed
structuresinthestreetsComment:KhodormaybealludingtoStrelkov,who,like
KhodorkovskiyandNavalniy,hasalsosaidthatheandhissupportersarepreparingto
stepinaftertheregimecollapses(See,forinstance,the7Junenotes),though
PiontkovskiyseemstothinkheisreferringtoBortnikovsandZolotovsandKadyrovs
armedformations.MoreonKhodorkovskiyscommentsPiontkovskiysaysheagreeswith
Khodorkovskiythatifthecoupdoesntatfirstcomeoff,thesilovikycouldturntoKhodoror
Navalniyforhelp.OneofthoseKhodorkovskiymentionedaspartofthetransitionalleadership
wasMedvedev.Comment:Khodorkovskiyhasbeensayingthisforawhile.Irecall
Belkovskiy,whoIthinkworksforKhodorkovskiy,alsomentioningMedvedevasa
transitionalfigure.

IllarionovsummedupKhodorkovskiysprogram,his(Khodors)regimechangescenario,and
listedthosehe(Illarionov)figuredmightbeontheroundtableoftransitionalleadersheadedby
MedvedevthatwasmentionedbyKhodorkovskiy:http://www.kasparov.ru/material.php?
id=576A2CFD907B7

PutinexitsMedvedevformsatransitionalgovernmentTheparliamentcouldbedissolved
Significantsocialforceswouldthenplace7-9orasmanyasfifteenpeopleonaroundtablein
theplaceofparliamentThesepeoplewillhavearmedsupporterswillingtobackthemup
ActingasaConstitutionalConvention,theroundtablewillapprovechangestotheRussian
Constitution,ineffectwritinganewoneThisnewconstitutionwillbeanagreementamongthe
armedformationsTheroundtablewillbesupportedbyaminority,buteven50,000wouldbe
enoughtoturnthecountryonitsheadIf500,000turnoutonthestreets,itistheywhowill
decidethequestionofvlastinRussiaThevastmajoritywillnotbetakingpartintheroundtable
atthatmoment,thepassivemajoritywonthavearoleTheiropinionswontmatteruntilthere
arehonestelections.Untilthen,theroundtablewillactasvlastMedvedevwillorganizenew,
honestelectionsApartfromMedvedev,Kudrincouldbepartofthetransitionalleadership,as
couldKhodorkovskiyandNavalniyThetransitionalleadershipwontbeadictatorship,its
anotherformofauthority

Illarionovnameshisversionofafifteen-personroundtableleadership(assumingPutinmakesan
exit):Khodorkovskiy,Medvedev,Kudrin,Navalniy,SergeyIvanov,Shoygu,Bortnikov,
Kolokoltsev,Bastrykin,Zolotov,Kadyrov,Sobyanin,Zyuganov,Zhirinovskiy,Strelkov.

Piontkovskiyonsilovikyshakeups
PutinwillgiveupanyoneforthesakeofKadyrov

http://mobile.twitter.com/apiontkovsky/status/740587590483640321
AndreiPiontkovsky@apiontkovsky
.,,,,
.-,,.
9:53AM-8Jun2016
Comment:PiontkovskiyalsosaysthatYuriYakovlevisBortnikovsman.Seethe30June
notes,whichmentionedaBortnikov-Yakovlevconnection.

SoloveysaystheKremlindoesntcareforBortnikov

Hisremarkisoneofthecommentsonthispost:http://m.vk.com/wall244477574_19214?
post_add#post_add
.
SoloveywasreferringtoareportaboutanincidentinvolvingFSBAcademygraduatesracingto
MoscowinthreedozenMercedesGelandewagensandcausingallkindsofproblemsontheroads,
withnumeroustrafficviolationstheFSBwasforcedtoopenanofficialinquiryaboutthe
incident.SoloveywassayingthattheKremlinwasalreadynothappywith
Bortnikov:http://m.ria.ru/incidents/20160704/1458402678.html
NovayaGazetaDeputyDirector(andformerFSBofficer)ValeriyShiryayevontheincident
(AcademyGraduateshaveDestroyedtheirReputationsEvenbeforeBeginningtheir
Service):http://www.novayagazeta.ru/columns/73696.html)Thereisvideoatthelink

SergeyKanevonBelykh

Backon10June,wereadthatOlegFeoktistovwouldtakeoveratFSBInternalSecurity(FSB
USB)afterhisbossthere,SergeyKorolev,movedovertoheadFSBEconomicSecurity(FSB
SEB),whileFSBUSBsIvanTkachevwouldtakeoveratFSBSEBsDirectorateK.On14
June,wesawanothermentionofFeoktistovtakingoveratFSBUSB.On28June,wesawa
reportthatFeoktistovhadheadedtheoperationtargetingBelykh.Feoktistovalsoplayedarolein
theGUEBiPKscandal.See,forinstance,the14May2014notes.
NewTimesalsoreportsthatFeoktistovheadedtheoperationtargeting
Belykh:http://www.newtimes.ru/articles/detail/113672/
AttheLubyanka,FeoktistovisknownasBigOlegorGeneralFikus.Hehasforalongtime
aimedtotakeoverasheadofhisdirectorate.TheBelykharrestisanadditionaltrumpcardinthe
deckforhimBelykh,whohasbeencriticizedbyPutinpreviously(Seethe28Junenotes),was
reputedlybreathingeasierwhenPutin,speakingattheSt.PetersburgEconomicForum,declared
thatKirovOblastwasamongthosewhichweredoingbetteronimprovingtheinvestment
climateButBelykmayhavebeenmistakensourcessaythattheFSBhasbeeneyeingBelykh
since2012andPutinwaswellawareofthat.*OnthedayBelykhwasarrested,Putinwasona
triptoChinaOneKanevsourcesaysthattheKirovregionalFSBhasbeenhostiletoBelykhfor
sometimeashehadcutthemofffromlucrativesourcesofincomeAnotherstorymakingthe
roundsinKirovOblastisthatNikitaBelykhwasnottheprimarytargetthatwouldbehisbrother
Aleksandr,whoresignedfromtheProsecutorsoffice(heheadedtheVolgaregionProsecutors
office)followinghisbrothersarrest(Seethe29Junenotes).Aleksandrwassaidtobeslatedfor
apositionasoneofChaykasdeputiesAnothersourceisconvincedthattheSeptemberelections
havenothingtodowithBelykhsarresthehadalreadyreachedagreementwithUnitedRussia
abouttheelectionsandBelykhwasapartofthesystem
*ButNovayaGazetasIrekMurtazinclaimsthatPutinwasinformedaboutBelykhsdetentiononly
afterthefact.PutinwasinBeijingandhadnotbeeninformedabouttheFSB/SKoperational
experimenttargetingBelykh:http://www.novayagazeta.ru/inquests/73675.html

PutinappointstwoZolotovNationalGuarddeputies

http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/3026102
ThetwoareLt.GeneralBorukayevandLt.GeneralSergeyYerygin.Putinalsoabolishedthepost
ofMVDInternalTroopsCommanderTheMVDministerwillfromnowonhaveseven,not
eight,deputies

PutingivesRolduginanaward

http://meduza.io/news/2016/07/04/putin-nagradil-roldugina-ordenom-za-bezuprechnuyu-
gosudarstvennuyu-sluzhbu

PutinawardedRolduginwiththeOrderofAleksandrNevskiyTheawardwasgivenbecauseof
Rolduginscontributionstohumanitarianforeignpolicyactionsthathavestrengthenedfriendship
andpeacebetweenpeoples

Whoistoblame?(Fortheeconomiccrisis)

http://slon.ru/posts/70181
ThearticledrawsonresearchdonebytheHigherEconomicsSchoolandLevadapollsEvery
thirdfamilywithchildrendoesnthavemoneyformedicineandhalfofthemareholdingbackon
meetingpaymentobligationsRealincomesarefallingandunemploymentisrising,asareprices
SlonlooksattheresultsoftheLevadapollingforJuneonright/wrongdirectionandapproval
PutinremainspopularintheperiodfollowingtheCrimeacampaign/annexation,hisapproval
ratinghasnotdroppedbelow80%.Thedeclineoftherubleandcorruptionscandalshavenothurt
PutinthepublicseemstothinkPutinwantstoimprovethingsforthepeople,butisheldupbythe
bureaucracyandaweakteamMeanwhile,Medvedevsandthegovernmentsapprovalratings
havedeclined:Medvedevshasdeclinedfrom73%in2008to51%todayandtheright/wrong
directionnumberstrackwithMedvedevsapprovalratingsovertime
Herearetheright/wrongdirection,approval/trustratingsfromthe30Junenotes(Comment:
Putinstrustratingisdownsignificantlysincelastspring):
[http://www.levada.ru/2016/06/30/iyunskie-rejtingi-odobreniya-i-doveriya-6/

50%saythatthecountryismovingintherightdirection(49%lastmonth64%inJune2015)Wrongdirection
33%(33%18%)Hardtosay18%(18%14%)Putinsapprovalratingisat81%(80%lastmonth89%in
June,2015)Medvedevsapprovalratingisat51%(54%inMay),whilethegovernmentsis48%(49%)
Approvalofgovernorsisat51%(55%inMay)Dumaapprovalis41%(42%lastmonth)Name5-6politicians
orpublicfiguresyoutrustPutinin1stplaceat51%(60%inMarch),followedbyShoygu(24%),Lavrov(17%),
Medvedev(13%),Zhirinovskiy(13%),andZyuganov(11%)]

TheReserveFundwillrunoutin2017?

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/russias-reserve-fund-to-run-empty-in-
2017/574344.html

RussiawillemptyitsReserveFundnextyearandwillstartdippingintotheNationalWelfareFund,the
ReutersnewsagencyreportedTuesday,citingdraftbudgetmaterials.

Amidbudgetdeficit,theFinanceMinistryisexpectedtoincreasedomesticborrowingfourorfivetimes
withinthreeyears.

TheministryisnotplanningsignificantcutstoRussiasexpensesinanticipationoftheStateDuma
andpresidentialelections,Reutersreported.Expenseswillbefixedat15.78trillionrubles($245.7
billion)overthreeyears.

Russiawillfillholesinitsbudgetcausedbyaconsistentdeclineingrossdomesticproductusing
fundsandloans.Bytheendof2016,therewillbe980billionrubles($15.27billion)leftintheReserve
Fund,oneofitstwosovereignfunds.Thisfundwillbeemptiedatsomepointin2017,accordingto
ministrymaterials.

TheFinanceMinistrysaysthatRussiawouldspend783billionrubles($12.13billion)fromtheNational
WelfareFundin2017and883billionrubles($13.68billion)in2018,Reutersreported.

TheNationalWelfareFund,whichheld$73billionatthestartofJuly,wasformedin2008whenthe
StabilizationFundwassplitintotheReserveFundandtheNationalWelfareFund.Aboutone-thirdof
theNationalWelfareFundisinvestedinRussianstatedevelopmentbankVneshekonombank(VEB)
andotherprojects.

MoscowCityCourtreleasesDmitriyKamenshchikfromhousearrest

Thereleaseorderwasmadeon1JulySeethe19Mayand3Junenotes.
http://crimerussia.com/en/gromkie-dela/the-moscow-city-court-discharged-dmitry-kamenshchik/
ThePresidiumoftheMoscowCityCourtallowedaremedialactionorderbythefirstdeputy
prosecutor-generalVladimirMalinovsky,whodemandedthereleaseoftheownerof
DomodedovoairportDmitryKamenshchikfromhousearrest.AccordingtoRBK,hecan
removeanelectronicanklebraceletassoonastheFederalPenitentiaryServiceofRussia
receivesallthenecessarydocuments.

TheProsecutorGeneral'sOfficehasseveraltimesdemandedcriminalchargesagainsttop
managersoftheairportbedroppedHowever,theInvestigativeCommitteeoftheRussian
Federationoverturnedtheremedialactionorderoftheprocuracyandcontinuedthe
investigation

AmericancompanywillresumebusinessinCrimea

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/first-american-company-to-return-to-
crimea-since-russia-sanctions/574325.html

TheCourseraonlineeducationalservicehasreceivedpermissionfromtheU.S.governmenttooperate
inCrimea,theKommersantnewspaperreportedonTuesday.

Courseratheworld'slargestonlinelearningplatformhasbeenunavailabletoresidentsofthe
annexedpeninsulasinceFeb.1,2015inconnectionwithsanctionsplacedonRussiabytheU.S.

Manymembersoftheeducationalcommunitywereopposedtothis,sayingthateducationshouldbe
availabletopeoplearoundtheworld.

IdonotknowasingleAmericanprofessorwhosupportedtheserestrictions[onaccessingCoursera]
inCrimea,saidIsaacFruminfromtheHigherSchoolofEconomics,Kommersantreported.

InesRoman,aspokespersonforCoursera,statedinJunethattheU.S.OfficeofForeignAssets
ControlgavethewebsiteaspeciallicensetoworkinCrimea.

Wethinkitisveryimportantthattheopportunitytoreceiveabettereducationisavailabletoeveryone,
wherevertheylive,saidthespokesperson.

KlintsevichsaysSnowdencooperatedwithRussianintelligence

http://20committee.com/2016/07/02/the-kremlin-admits-snowden-is-a-russian-agent/

Now,theKremlinhassettledtheissueonceandforallbystatingthatEdwardSnowdenisindeedtheirman.
Inaremarkableinterviewthisweek,FranzKlintsevich,aseniorRussiansecurityofficial,explainedthecase
matter-of-factly:Letsbefrank.Snowdendidshareintelligence.Thisiswhatsecurityservicesdo.Iftheresa
possibilitytogetinformation,theywillgetit.

Withthis,KlintsevichsimplysaidwhatallintelligenceprofessionalsalreadyknewthatSnowdenisa
collaboratorwiththeFSB.ThathereallyhadnochoiceinthematteroncehesetfootinRussiadoesnot
changethefacts.

Klintsevichisnoidlespeculator.HeisasenatorwhohasservedintheStateDumafornearlyadecade.More
importantly,heisthedeputychairofthesenatesdefenseandsecuritycommittee,whichoverseesthespecial
services.The59-year-oldKlintsevichthushasaccesstomanystatesecretsforinstanceregardingthe
Snowdencase.

HeisalsoaretiredRussianarmycolonel,havingserved22yearsintheeliteAirborneForces(VDV).
KlintsevichsawactioninAfghanistaninthe1980swiththeVDVand,basedonacarefulreadingofhis
biography,appearstohaveservedwithGRU,thatismilitaryintelligence(hisworkinspecialpropagandain
Afghanistanandhis1991graduationfromtheLeninMilitary-PoliticalAcademyareindicationsofhisGRU
affiliation).

Klintsevichisnotawell-knownfigureoutsideRussiaheappearedintheWesternpressbrieflyin2012with
hisshort-livedideatobuyHitlersbirthhouseinBraunau,inordertodestroyitbutheisawell-connected
memberoftheKremlinsrulingelite.GivenhissenatecommitteepositionandhisGRUpast,thereisnodoubt
thatKlintsevichisconsiderednash(ours)byRussiasspecialservices.

HisstatementoutingSnowdensrelationshipwiththeKremlinthereforecannotbeanaccidentoraslipofthe
tongue.Forwhateverreason,PutinhasdecidedtooutSnowdenasthecollaboratorthatheactuallyisand
hasbeenforthreeyearsalready.

OnereasonforthismaybeSnowdensrecenttepidcriticismviaTwitterofRussiasdraconiannewlawson
domesticsurveillancewhichvastlyexceedanyoftheactivitiesoftheWesterndemocraciesthatSnowdenhas
sostronglycriticizedfromhisFSBhideaway.Indeed,hishostsfinallyallowingtheirAmericancollaboratorto
tweetnegativelyaboutRussiamanyhadnotedSnowdenssilenceonFSBrepressionandworsemaybea
signthatthedefectorhasoutlivedhisusefulness.

Intruth,SnowdenwasneverallthatwellinformedaboutAmericanintelligence.Contrarytothemythsthathe
andhismouthpieceshavepropagated,hewasnomorethananITsystemsadministrator.Snowdenwasnever
anysortofbonafidespy.TherearenoindicationshereallyunderstandsmostofwhathestolefromNSA.

TheFSBthereforemilkedSnowdenofanyvaluableinformationratherquickly.Helikelyhadlittlelighttoshed
onthemillion-plussecretfileshestole.Instead,hisvaluetoMoscowhasbeenasakeyplayerinKremlin
propagandadesignedtodiscredittheWesternintelligencealliance.

Inthatrole,SnowdenhasdoneagreatdealofdamagetotheWest.ButhewasneveramoleforMoscow
insideNSA.Inreality,theSnowdenOperationisprobablyacovertodeflectattentionfromtheoneormore
actualRussianmoleswhohavebeenlurkinginsideNSAforyears,undetected.

BasedonthecasesofpreviousWesternintelligencedefectorstoMoscow,EdwardSnowdenfacesanunhappy
future.Whateverhappenstohimisuptohishosts,whocontrolallaspectsofanydefectorslife.Thereno
longercanbeanyhonestdebateabouthisrelationshipwiththeKremlin,whichhassettledthematteronceand
forall.PutinandhisspecialservicesconsiderSnowdentobenashthereisnoquestionaboutthatnow.

(ThisarticleoriginallyappearedinBILDinGerman,youcanreadthathere.)

Novirusfoundinthismessage.
CheckedbyAVG-www.avg.com
Version:2016.0.7640/VirusDatabase:4613/12565-ReleaseDate:07/05/16
From: PeterReddaway<pbreddaway@gmail.com>
Senttime: 07/06/201608:01:06AM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>
Subject: Re:InternetNotes5July2016

Thisisagoodpoint,andremindsmethatIwasoftenstruckbyMikhalchenko'sremarkablespeedand
aggressivenessinacquiring/seizingassets(andnodoubtpassingagoodpercentageofthevalueto
Bortnikov).ThismusthaveprovokedenvyandangerinalotofFSBofficersinSPB.

OnWed,Jul6,2016at2:03AM,RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>wrote:
Ifthisisthecase,itsmoreinterestingthanyoumightthinkatfirstblushsinceitwastheFSBthatwentafterMikhalchenko.

OnJul5,2016,at6:38PM,PeterReddaway<pbreddaway@gmail.com>wrote:

W
ayne,

V.interestingaboutPutin'sapparentthreatstoBortnikov(p.3).LinksupwithwhatBob
remindedmeabouttheotherday(andIforwardedtoyou),namelythatBortnikovwas-for
someyearsatleast-Mikhalchenko'skrysha.SoM'sarrestwasprobablyonemorePutinthreat
toBortnikov.

Best,

Peter

OnTue,Jul5,2016at6:27PM,WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>wrote:

InternetNotes5July2016

FSBraidonEkhoMoskvy(PiontkovskiyApalacecoupandatransitionalperiod:
Piontkovskiy/Khodorkovskiy/Illarionov).1

Piontkovskiyonsilovikyshakeups.3

SoloveysaystheKremlindoesntcareforBortnikov.3

SergeyKanevonBelykh.3

PutinappointstwoZolotovNationalGuarddeputies.4

PutingivesRolduginanaward..4

Whoistoblame?(Fortheeconomiccrisis).4

TheReserveFundwillrunoutin2017?.5

MoscowCityCourtreleasesDmitriyKamenshchikfromhousearrest.6

AmericancompanywillresumebusinessinCrimea.6

KlintsevichsaysSnowdencooperatedwithRussianintelligence.7

FSBraidonEkhoMoskvy(PiontkovskiyApalacecoupandatransitionalperiod:
Piontkovskiy/Khodorkovskiy/Illarionov)

http://www.newsru.com/russia/05jul2016/echo_print.html

AccordingtoEkhoChiefEditorAlekseyVenediktov,theraidtookplaceonTuesday.TheFSBwasafterEkhos
e-mailcorrespondencewithpublicistAndreyPiontkovskiy.SomeEkhoemployeeshavebeencalledinfor
questioningbytheFSBandMVD.EditorVitaliyRuvinskiywasquestionedaboutNavalniysblogattheMVD
andonPiontkovskiysattheFSB.VenediktovhimselfisonatriptoGenevaAcriminalcasehasbeenopened
againstPiontkovskiyforpubliccallsforactionsthatwouldviolatetheterritorialintegrityoftheRussian
Federation.

InJanuary,IrinaYarovayaoftheDumaSecurityCommitteesentarequestforareviewtotheProsecutorsoffice
concerningaPiontkovskiyarticle(ABombAbouttoGoOff)thatwaspostedontheEkhowebsite.Beforethat,
asimilarrequesthadbeenmadebytheChairmanoftheChechenParliament,MagomedDaudov,whoclaimed
thatPiontkovskiywascallingforChechnyatobeseparatedfromtheRussianFederation.PiontkovskiyleftRussia
on19FebruaryaftertheProsecutorsofficehaduncoveredwhatitsaidwasevidenceofextremisminhiswriting.

TheBombarticleappearedon23January.ItcalledfortheseparationofChechnyafromRussia.Ekho
subsequentlydeletedthelasttwoparagraphsofthearticle.ThearticlesaidthatRussiahadlosttheChechenwar
andwasnowpayingoffGrozny,financingpalacesandgoldenpistolsfortheChechenleaders,while
unemployedyouthswentofftofightfortheIslamists.Piontkovskiyfurtherclaimedthatsilovikywhoareunhappy
withKadyrovmaystartathirdChechenwar.

Piontkovskiyslastcolumn,dated27June,wasaboutthearrestofKirovGovernorNikitaBelykh(Seethenotes
from27,28,and29June),whichPiontkovskiyattributedtoanunderthecarpetbattleamongKremlinclans.
TheinternalKremlinjunta,accordingtoPiontkovskiy,sensestheruinousstateoftheregimeandistryingto
preserveitswellbeingbypurgingpartner-competitorsinpreparationforatransitionalperiod.

AndreyIllarionovre-postedthePiontkovskiyBombarticle:

http://aillarionov.livejournal.com/894698.html

Asfarasthesiloviky,Kadyrov,andtheNemtsovmurder,PiontkovskiytoldKasparov.ru
(http://www.kasparov.ru/material.php?id=576E441AD5B89)thatPutincannotremoveKadyrovthatwouldbe
anacknowledgementthathispolicyintheCaucasushadcollapsed,bringingintoquestionthelegitimacyofthe
regime(sinceitwasVVPsactionsonChechnyathathadhelpedbringhimtopower).Theregimeisenteringan
inevitablephaseofpossiblepalacecoups(followingthedefeatoftheRussianworldconceptinUkraine)
andPutinmaythrowabonetothesilovikyintheformofsomeoneclosetoKadyrovwhowasimplicatedinthe
NemtsovmurderNavalniyandKhodorkovskiyhavejoinedintheattacksonKadyrovandhavesaidthatthe
regimewillchangenotviaelections,butthroughaseriesofpalacecoups(Piontkovskiycallsthesilovikyattacks
onKadyrovasluggishon-goingcoup).PiontkovskiygoesonaboutKhodorkovskiytellingSlon
(http://slon.ru/posts/69549)thatajuntaof7-9wouldemergeafterapalacecoup,theleadersofwhich
wouldhavearmedstructuresinthestreetsComment:KhodormaybealludingtoStrelkov,who,like
KhodorkovskiyandNavalniy,hasalsosaidthatheandhissupportersarepreparingtostepinafterthe
regimecollapses(See,forinstance,the7Junenotes),thoughPiontkovskiyseemstothinkheis
referringtoBortnikovsandZolotovsandKadyrovsarmedformations.MoreonKhodorkovskiys
commentsPiontkovskiysaysheagreeswithKhodorkovskiythatifthecoupdoesntatfirstcomeoff,the
silovikycouldturntoKhodororNavalniyforhelp.OneofthoseKhodorkovskiymentionedaspartofthe
transitionalleadershipwasMedvedev.Comment:Khodorkovskiyhasbeensayingthisforawhile.Irecall
Belkovskiy,whoIthinkworksforKhodorkovskiy,alsomentioningMedvedevasatransitionalfigure.

IllarionovsummedupKhodorkovskiysprogram,his(Khodors)regimechangescenario,andlistedthosehe
(Illarionov)figuredmightbeontheroundtableoftransitionalleadersheadedbyMedvedevthatwasmentioned
byKhodorkovskiy:http://www.kasparov.ru/material.php?id=576A2CFD907B7

PutinexitsMedvedevformsatransitionalgovernmentTheparliamentcouldbedissolvedSignificantsocial
forceswouldthenplace7-9orasmanyasfifteenpeopleonaroundtableintheplaceofparliamentThese
peoplewillhavearmedsupporterswillingtobackthemupActingasaConstitutionalConvention,theround
tablewillapprovechangestotheRussianConstitution,ineffectwritinganewoneThisnewconstitutionwillbe
anagreementamongthearmedformationsTheroundtablewillbesupportedbyaminority,buteven50,000
wouldbeenoughtoturnthecountryonitsheadIf500,000turnoutonthestreets,itistheywhowilldecidethe
questionofvlastinRussiaThevastmajoritywillnotbetakingpartintheroundtableatthatmoment,the
passivemajoritywonthavearoleTheiropinionswontmatteruntiltherearehonestelections.Untilthen,the
roundtablewillactasvlastMedvedevwillorganizenew,honestelectionsApartfromMedvedev,Kudrin
couldbepartofthetransitionalleadership,ascouldKhodorkovskiyandNavalniyThetransitionalleadership
wontbeadictatorship,itsanotherformofauthority

Illarionovnameshisversionofafifteen-personroundtableleadership(assumingPutinmakesanexit):
Khodorkovskiy,Medvedev,Kudrin,Navalniy,SergeyIvanov,Shoygu,Bortnikov,Kolokoltsev,Bastrykin,
Zolotov,Kadyrov,Sobyanin,Zyuganov,Zhirinovskiy,Strelkov.

Piontkovskiyonsilovikyshakeups

PutinwillgiveupanyoneforthesakeofKadyrov

http://mobile.twitter.com/apiontkovsky/status/740587590483640321

AndreiPiontkovsky@apiontkovsky

.,,,,.
-,,.

9:53AM-8Jun2016

Comment:PiontkovskiyalsosaysthatYuriYakovlevisBortnikovsman.Seethe30Junenotes,which
mentionedaBortnikov-Yakovlevconnection.

SoloveysaystheKremlindoesntcareforBortnikov

Hisremarkisoneofthecommentsonthispost:http://m.vk.com/wall244477574_19214?post_add#post_add

SoloveywasreferringtoareportaboutanincidentinvolvingFSBAcademygraduatesracingtoMoscowinthree
dozenMercedesGelandewagensandcausingallkindsofproblemsontheroads,withnumeroustrafficviolations
theFSBwasforcedtoopenanofficialinquiryabouttheincident.SoloveywassayingthattheKremlinwas
alreadynothappywithBortnikov:http://m.ria.ru/incidents/20160704/1458402678.html
NovayaGazetaDeputyDirector(andformerFSBofficer)ValeriyShiryayevontheincident(Academy
GraduateshaveDestroyedtheirReputationsEvenbeforeBeginningtheirService):
http://www.novayagazeta.ru/columns/73696.html)Thereisvideoatthelink

SergeyKanevonBelykh

Backon10June,wereadthatOlegFeoktistovwouldtakeoveratFSBInternalSecurity(FSBUSB)afterhis
bossthere,SergeyKorolev,movedovertoheadFSBEconomicSecurity(FSBSEB),whileFSBUSBsIvan
TkachevwouldtakeoveratFSBSEBsDirectorateK.On14June,wesawanothermentionofFeoktistov
takingoveratFSBUSB.On28June,wesawareportthatFeoktistovhadheadedtheoperationtargeting
Belykh.FeoktistovalsoplayedaroleintheGUEBiPKscandal.See,forinstance,the14May2014notes.
NewTimesalsoreportsthatFeoktistovheadedtheoperationtargetingBelykh:
http://www.newtimes.ru/articles/detail/113672/

AttheLubyanka,FeoktistovisknownasBigOlegorGeneralFikus.Hehasforalongtimeaimedtotake
overasheadofhisdirectorate.TheBelykharrestisanadditionaltrumpcardinthedeckforhimBelykh,who
hasbeencriticizedbyPutinpreviously(Seethe28Junenotes),wasreputedlybreathingeasierwhenPutin,
speakingattheSt.PetersburgEconomicForum,declaredthatKirovOblastwasamongthosewhichweredoing
betteronimprovingtheinvestmentclimateButBelykmayhavebeenmistakensourcessaythattheFSBhas
beeneyeingBelykhsince2012andPutinwaswellawareofthat.*OnthedayBelykhwasarrested,Putinwason
atriptoChinaOneKanevsourcesaysthattheKirovregionalFSBhasbeenhostiletoBelykhforsometimeas
hehadcutthemofffromlucrativesourcesofincomeAnotherstorymakingtheroundsinKirovOblastisthat
NikitaBelykhwasnottheprimarytargetthatwouldbehisbrotherAleksandr,whoresignedfromthe
Prosecutorsoffice(heheadedtheVolgaregionProsecutorsoffice)followinghisbrothersarrest(Seethe29
Junenotes).AleksandrwassaidtobeslatedforapositionasoneofChaykasdeputiesAnothersourceis
convincedthattheSeptemberelectionshavenothingtodowithBelykhsarresthehadalreadyreached
agreementwithUnitedRussiaabouttheelectionsandBelykhwasapartofthesystem

*ButNovayaGazetasIrekMurtazinclaimsthatPutinwasinformedaboutBelykhsdetentiononlyafterthefact.
PutinwasinBeijingandhadnotbeeninformedabouttheFSB/SKoperationalexperimenttargetingBelykh:
http://www.novayagazeta.ru/inquests/73675.html

PutinappointstwoZolotovNationalGuarddeputies

http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/3026102

ThetwoareLt.GeneralBorukayevandLt.GeneralSergeyYerygin.PutinalsoabolishedthepostofMVD
InternalTroopsCommanderTheMVDministerwillfromnowonhaveseven,noteight,deputies

PutingivesRolduginanaward

http://meduza.io/news/2016/07/04/putin-nagradil-roldugina-ordenom-za-bezuprechnuyu-gosudarstvennuyu-
sluzhbu

PutinawardedRolduginwiththeOrderofAleksandrNevskiyTheawardwasgivenbecauseofRoldugins
contributionstohumanitarianforeignpolicyactionsthathavestrengthenedfriendshipandpeacebetween
peoples

Whoistoblame?(Fortheeconomiccrisis)

http://slon.ru/posts/70181

ThearticledrawsonresearchdonebytheHigherEconomicsSchoolandLevadapollsEverythirdfamilywith
childrendoesnthavemoneyformedicineandhalfofthemareholdingbackonmeetingpaymentobligations
Realincomesarefallingandunemploymentisrising,asarepricesSlonlooksattheresultsoftheLevadapolling
forJuneonright/wrongdirectionandapprovalPutinremainspopularintheperiodfollowingtheCrimea
campaign/annexation,hisapprovalratinghasnotdroppedbelow80%.Thedeclineoftherubleandcorruption
scandalshavenothurtPutinthepublicseemstothinkPutinwantstoimprovethingsforthepeople,butisheldup
bythebureaucracyandaweakteamMeanwhile,Medvedevsandthegovernmentsapprovalratingshave
declined:Medvedevshasdeclinedfrom73%in2008to51%todayandtheright/wrongdirectionnumberstrack
withMedvedevsapprovalratingsovertime

Herearetheright/wrongdirection,approval/trustratingsfromthe30Junenotes(Comment:Putinstrust
ratingisdownsignificantlysincelastspring):

[http://www.levada.ru/2016/06/30/iyunskie-rejtingi-odobreniya-i-doveriya-6/

50%saythatthecountryismovingintherightdirection(49%lastmonth64%inJune2015)Wrongdirection33%(33%
18%)Hardtosay18%(18%14%)Putinsapprovalratingisat81%(80%lastmonth89%inJune,2015)Medvedevs
approvalratingisat51%(54%inMay),whilethegovernmentsis48%(49%)Approvalofgovernorsisat51%(55%inMay)
Dumaapprovalis41%(42%lastmonth)Name5-6politiciansorpublicfiguresyoutrustPutinin1stplaceat51%(60%in
March),followedbyShoygu(24%),Lavrov(17%),Medvedev(13%),Zhirinovskiy(13%),andZyuganov(11%)]

TheReserveFundwillrunoutin2017?

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/russias-reserve-fund-to-run-empty-in-2017/574344.html
RussiawillemptyitsReserveFundnextyearandwillstartdippingintotheNationalWelfareFund,theReutersnews
agencyreportedTuesday,citingdraftbudgetmaterials.

Amidbudgetdeficit,theFinanceMinistryisexpectedtoincreasedomesticborrowingfourorfivetimeswithinthree
years.

TheministryisnotplanningsignificantcutstoRussiasexpensesinanticipationoftheStateDumaandpresidential
elections,Reutersreported.Expenseswillbefixedat15.78trillionrubles($245.7billion)overthreeyears.

Russiawillfillholesinitsbudgetcausedbyaconsistentdeclineingrossdomesticproductusingfundsandloans.By
theendof2016,therewillbe980billionrubles($15.27billion)leftintheReserveFund,oneofitstwosovereignfunds.
Thisfundwillbeemptiedatsomepointin2017,accordingtoministrymaterials.

TheFinanceMinistrysaysthatRussiawouldspend783billionrubles($12.13billion)fromtheNationalWelfareFundin
2017and883billionrubles($13.68billion)in2018,Reutersreported.

TheNationalWelfareFund,whichheld$73billionatthestartofJuly,wasformedin2008whentheStabilizationFund
wassplitintotheReserveFundandtheNationalWelfareFund.Aboutone-thirdoftheNationalWelfareFundis
investedinRussianstatedevelopmentbankVneshekonombank(VEB)andotherprojects.

MoscowCityCourtreleasesDmitriyKamenshchikfromhousearrest

Thereleaseorderwasmadeon1JulySeethe19Mayand3Junenotes.
http://crimerussia.com/en/gromkie-dela/the-moscow-city-court-discharged-dmitry-kamenshchik/

ThePresidiumoftheMoscowCityCourtallowedaremedialactionorderbythefirstdeputyprosecutor-
generalVladimirMalinovsky,whodemandedthereleaseoftheownerofDomodedovoairportDmitry
Kamenshchikfromhousearrest.AccordingtoRBK,hecanremoveanelectronicanklebraceletassoon
astheFederalPenitentiaryServiceofRussiareceivesallthenecessarydocuments.

TheProsecutorGeneral'sOfficehasseveraltimesdemandedcriminalchargesagainsttopmanagersof
theairportbedroppedHowever,theInvestigativeCommitteeoftheRussianFederationoverturnedthe
remedialactionorderoftheprocuracyandcontinuedtheinvestigation

AmericancompanywillresumebusinessinCrimea

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/first-american-company-to-return-to-crimea-since-
russia-sanctions/574325.html

TheCourseraonlineeducationalservicehasreceivedpermissionfromtheU.S.governmenttooperateinCrimea,the
KommersantnewspaperreportedonTuesday.

Courseratheworld'slargestonlinelearningplatformhasbeenunavailabletoresidentsoftheannexedpeninsula
sinceFeb.1,2015inconnectionwithsanctionsplacedonRussiabytheU.S.

Manymembersoftheeducationalcommunitywereopposedtothis,sayingthateducationshouldbeavailableto
peoplearoundtheworld.

IdonotknowasingleAmericanprofessorwhosupportedtheserestrictions[onaccessingCoursera]inCrimea,said
IsaacFruminfromtheHigherSchoolofEconomics,Kommersantreported.

InesRoman,aspokespersonforCoursera,statedinJunethattheU.S.OfficeofForeignAssetsControlgavethe
websiteaspeciallicensetoworkinCrimea.

Wethinkitisveryimportantthattheopportunitytoreceiveabettereducationisavailabletoeveryone,whereverthey
live,saidthespokesperson.

KlintsevichsaysSnowdencooperatedwithRussianintelligence

http://20committee.com/2016/07/02/the-kremlin-admits-snowden-is-a-russian-agent/

Now,theKremlinhassettledtheissueonceandforallbystatingthatEdwardSnowdenisindeedtheirman.Inaremarkable
interviewthisweek,FranzKlintsevich,aseniorRussiansecurityofficial,explainedthecasematter-of-factly:Letsbefrank.
Snowdendidshareintelligence.Thisiswhatsecurityservicesdo.Iftheresapossibilitytogetinformation,theywillgetit.

Withthis,KlintsevichsimplysaidwhatallintelligenceprofessionalsalreadyknewthatSnowdenisacollaboratorwiththeFSB.
ThathereallyhadnochoiceinthematteroncehesetfootinRussiadoesnotchangethefacts.

Klintsevichisnoidlespeculator.HeisasenatorwhohasservedintheStateDumafornearlyadecade.Moreimportantly,heis
thedeputychairofthesenatesdefenseandsecuritycommittee,whichoverseesthespecialservices.The59-year-old
KlintsevichthushasaccesstomanystatesecretsforinstanceregardingtheSnowdencase.

HeisalsoaretiredRussianarmycolonel,havingserved22yearsintheeliteAirborneForces(VDV).Klintsevichsawactionin
Afghanistaninthe1980swiththeVDVand,basedonacarefulreadingofhisbiography,appearstohaveservedwithGRU,that
ismilitaryintelligence(hisworkinspecialpropagandainAfghanistanandhis1991graduationfromtheLeninMilitary-Political
AcademyareindicationsofhisGRUaffiliation).

Klintsevichisnotawell-knownfigureoutsideRussiaheappearedintheWesternpressbrieflyin2012withhisshort-lived
ideatobuyHitlersbirthhouseinBraunau,inordertodestroyitbutheisawell-connectedmemberoftheKremlinsrulingelite.
GivenhissenatecommitteepositionandhisGRUpast,thereisnodoubtthatKlintsevichisconsiderednash(ours)by
Russiasspecialservices.

HisstatementoutingSnowdensrelationshipwiththeKremlinthereforecannotbeanaccidentoraslipofthetongue.For
whateverreason,PutinhasdecidedtooutSnowdenasthecollaboratorthatheactuallyisandhasbeenforthreeyearsalready.

OnereasonforthismaybeSnowdensrecenttepidcriticismviaTwitterofRussiasdraconiannewlawsondomesticsurveillance
whichvastlyexceedanyoftheactivitiesoftheWesterndemocraciesthatSnowdenhassostronglycriticizedfromhisFSB
hideaway.Indeed,hishostsfinallyallowingtheirAmericancollaboratortotweetnegativelyaboutRussiamanyhadnoted
SnowdenssilenceonFSBrepressionandworsemaybeasignthatthedefectorhasoutlivedhisusefulness.

Intruth,SnowdenwasneverallthatwellinformedaboutAmericanintelligence.Contrarytothemythsthatheandhis
mouthpieceshavepropagated,hewasnomorethananITsystemsadministrator.Snowdenwasneveranysortofbonafidespy.
TherearenoindicationshereallyunderstandsmostofwhathestolefromNSA.

TheFSBthereforemilkedSnowdenofanyvaluableinformationratherquickly.Helikelyhadlittlelighttoshedonthemillion-plus
secretfileshestole.Instead,hisvaluetoMoscowhasbeenasakeyplayerinKremlinpropagandadesignedtodiscreditthe
Westernintelligencealliance.

Inthatrole,SnowdenhasdoneagreatdealofdamagetotheWest.ButhewasneveramoleforMoscowinsideNSA.Inreality,
theSnowdenOperationisprobablyacovertodeflectattentionfromtheoneormoreactualRussianmoleswhohavebeen
lurkinginsideNSAforyears,undetected.

BasedonthecasesofpreviousWesternintelligencedefectorstoMoscow,EdwardSnowdenfacesanunhappyfuture.Whatever
happenstohimisuptohishosts,whocontrolallaspectsofanydefectorslife.Therenolongercanbeanyhonestdebateabout
hisrelationshipwiththeKremlin,whichhassettledthematteronceandforall.PutinandhisspecialservicesconsiderSnowden
tobenashthereisnoquestionaboutthatnow.

(ThisarticleoriginallyappearedinBILDinGerman,youcanreadthathere.)

From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 07/06/201612:31:44PM
To: RobertOtto<OttoRC@state.gov>
Subject: OldGuardBillionairetoLeaveSinkingRussianShip-TheAmericanInterest(silovikiwar)

http://www.the-american-interest.com/2016/07/05/old-guard-billionaire-to-leave-sinking-russian-ship/

OldGuardBillionairetoLeaveSinkingRussian
Ship
MikhailProkhorov,51,oneofRussiaswealthiesttycoons(number14onForbeslistofthe
richestRussians),issellinghisbusinessassetsinRussia.ProkhorovsOneksimGroupislooking
forbuyersdirectlyandisnotusingmiddlemen,Vedomostireports,citingseveralsourcesinside
thegroup.

Onesksimownsa17.2percentstakeofthealuminumgiantUCRusal,27percentoftheRussian
fertilizerproducerUralkali,83.3percentoftheOPINrealestatedevelopmentcompany,75
percentoftheQuadrajoint-stockcompanyfocusingonpowergeneration,50percentofOptogan,
anLEDmanufacturer,and100percentofRenaissanceCapitalBank,RenaissanceCreditBank,
Soglasieinsurancecompany,andtheSnobandRBCmediaholdingcompanies.Inaddition,
Oneksimhasa19.7percentstakeintheInternationalFinancialClubjoint-stockbank(MFK),in
whichProkhorovalsopersonallyhasa27.7percentstake.

Prokhorovhasbeentryingtosellpartsofhisholdingsforawhilenow.Oneksimwasgoingtosell
Uralkaliayearago,andQuadra,SoglasieandRenaissanceCredithavebeinglookingforbuyers
foracoupleofyears.Thisisdifferent.

OnApril14th,whileVladimirPutinwashostinghisannualnationwidecall-inshow,theFSB
searchedOnesksimsheadquartersinMoscow,aswellastheofficesofallthreeofthebanksthe
groupowns.200officersoftheFSBandtheFederalTaxServiceweredeployedintheraid.
RussianmedialinkedtheraidstoPutinsdispleasurewiththereportingthatProkhorovs
independentRBCwasdoingonPutinsdaughtersvastwealthandstratosphericriseinacademia,
aswellastothecompanysongoinginvestigationsintothePanamaPapers.

TheFSB,however,explainedthatthesearcheswereduetocriminalinvestigationsintothe
troubledTavricheskyBank,whichhadhaditsoperatinglicenserevokedbytheRussianCentral
Bankduetocapitalizationproblems.ProkhorovsMFKwaschosenasthechiefinvestorin
TavricheskysresolutionproceedingsinMarchoflastyear.Afewmonthslater,in
September,twoformerexecutivesofTavricheskyweredetainedundersuspicionofillegally
withdrawing$6millionabroad.

ItstruethatRBCseditorialboardwaspurgedlessthanamonthafterthesearches,and
Prokhorovisinfactsaidtobelookingforabuyerforhismediacompanies.Butasitturnsout,all
thatwasduetoaparallellineofpressurecomingfromtheKremlin.Inthecaseoftheraids
againstOneksim,theFSBwastellingthetruth:thoseraidsreallyhadnothingtodowithRBC.

TheTavricheskycriminalinvestigationwasnottheonlyattackonProkhorovsbusinessinterests.
InAprilofthisyear,MFKsdepositorssuddenlywithdrew10billionrubles($151million)from
thebank.AsVedomostireported,bothcorporateandprivateclientsemptiedtheiraccounts
accordingtothebanksrecords.RenaissanceCreditBankalsolostdepositstotaling3billion
rubles($46million)inApril.MFKdeclinedtoofficiallycomment,andRussianmediaproceeded
toconnectthemassdepositoutflowfromProkhorovsbankwithAprilsFSBsearches.This,
however,couldnotbetherealreasonforthecapitalflight,becauseinApril,RenaissanceCredit
waspositionedmuchhigherthanMFKinRussiasofficialbankrankings(RenaissanceCreditwas
ranked60,comparedtoMFKs71,meaningitissignificantlylargermeasuredbynetassets).
Yetitsufferedmuchsmallerlosses.ThissuggestsMFKslosseswereinfactnotduetoapublic
panictriggeredbythenewsoftheraids(whichwouldhaveaffectedbothbanksproportionately),
butratherbysomethingelse.

ThisisnotthefirsttimethatalargeRussianbankhassufferedasuddenmassoutflowofdeposits
inrecenthistory.InOctoberof2015,depositorswithdrew15.6billionrubles(around3percent
ofalldeposits)fromAlfaBank,the7thlargestbankinRussia.Thecapitalflightoccurredright
afterthebankhadbeencompromisedbymysterioushackers,whoproceededtosendthe
followingtextmessagetoitsclients:Fromprettyreliablesources:AlfaBankshareholdershave
withdrawntheirassetsfromthebankandoutofthecountry.Theaftermathoftheattackwas
alsoodd:Thebanksrepresentativesdeniedthattherewasanyconnectionbetweenthecapital
outflowsandthehacks,andinsteadtriedtoexplainawaythedepositoutflowasbeingdue
tocurrencyfluctuations.Reportswerefiledwithlawenforcementagencies,butnofurtheraction
wastaken.AlfaBanksfounderandpart-owner,MikhailFridman,isknowntobearuthless
businessman.Haditbeenacompetitor,Fridmanwouldnothavehesitatedtoretaliate.

Tounderstandwhatisgoingon,itsimportanttorememberthattheFSBsDirectorateK
officiallyknownastheCounterintelligenceDepartmentforSecuringtheFinancial-CreditSector
oftheEconomicSecurityServiceoftheFSBisresponsibleforoverseeingRussiasfinancial
sector.Assuch,ithasbeenabletoshakedownthatpartoftheeconomyforhundredsofmillions
ofdollarseachyear.TheFSBfrequentlyarrestsbankersandbusinessmenontrumped-up
chargesanddemandsitsunfairshareoftheirbusinesses.Butitdoesnotnecessarilyneedtogo
thatfar.Itsquitepossiblethatunanticipated,mysteriousbankrunsarebeingusedtosenda
signaltoowners:Comeandmakeadealwithus,andeverythingwillbefine.

Apparently,Fridmanmanagedtocometosomesortofworkingarrangement.Prokhorov,who
hasalwayshadareputationassomeonewithclearexitstrategies,appearstohaverealizedthatit
istimetogo.

Aswenotedlastweek,thereisahugeongoingfightinsidetheFSB,betweentheorganizations
DirectorateKandits6thService.Theformerhasmadesubstantialinroadsintothelattersbank
regulationracket,andasNovayaGazetadescribesit,isnowsignalingthatallprevious
arrangementswillneedtoberenegotiated.Thefalloutinthebusinesscommunityis
alreadysubstantial,andwillprobablygetworse.Inakleptocratic,militarizedstatesuchas
modernRussia,runningabusinessisincreasinglybecomingimpossible.Moneydoesntgiveone
powerintodaysRussia.Rather,asBillBrowder,thevigilanteinvestorbehindtheMagnitsky
Act,explainedtousafewweeksago,Powergoestothepeoplewhohavethepowertoarrest
otherpeople.

Putinsregimehasstartedtoeateventhosewhohavealwaysbeenitsloyalcourtesans.
Prokhorov,whocameupinYeltsinstime,dutifullyheadedthespoilerJustCausepartyinthe
2011Dumaelections,andevenplayedtheroleoftheofficiallysanctionedoppositionby
runningagainstPutininthe2012presidentialelections.Noneofthishasmadehimuntouchable.
ProkhorovisnowabandoninghisRussianbusinesses,andprobablyRussiatoo.

OutsidethecountryProkhorovowns100%oftheBrooklynNets,whichheacquiredin2010.

From: PeterReddaway<pbreddaway@gmail.com>
Senttime: 07/05/201603:38:12PM
To: WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: Re:InternetNotes5July2016

W
ayne,

V.interestingaboutPutin'sapparentthreatstoBortnikov(p.3).LinksupwithwhatBobremindedmeabout
theotherday(andIforwardedtoyou),namelythatBortnikovwas-forsomeyearsatleast-
Mikhalchenko'skrysha.SoM'sarrestwasprobablyonemorePutinthreattoBortnikov.

Best,

Peter

OnTue,Jul5,2016at6:27PM,WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>wrote:

InternetNotes5July2016
FSBraidonEkhoMoskvy(PiontkovskiyApalacecoupandatransitionalperiod:
Piontkovskiy/Khodorkovskiy/Illarionov).1

Piontkovskiyonsilovikyshakeups.3

SoloveysaystheKremlindoesntcareforBortnikov.3

SergeyKanevonBelykh.3

PutinappointstwoZolotovNationalGuarddeputies.4

PutingivesRolduginanaward..4

Whoistoblame?(Fortheeconomiccrisis).4

TheReserveFundwillrunoutin2017?.5

MoscowCityCourtreleasesDmitriyKamenshchikfromhousearrest.6

AmericancompanywillresumebusinessinCrimea.6

KlintsevichsaysSnowdencooperatedwithRussianintelligence.7

FSBraidonEkhoMoskvy(PiontkovskiyApalacecoupandatransitionalperiod:
Piontkovskiy/Khodorkovskiy/Illarionov)

http://www.newsru.com/russia/05jul2016/echo_print.html

AccordingtoEkhoChiefEditorAlekseyVenediktov,theraidtookplaceonTuesday.TheFSBwasafterEkhose-mail
correspondencewithpublicistAndreyPiontkovskiy.SomeEkhoemployeeshavebeencalledinforquestioningbytheFSBand
MVD.EditorVitaliyRuvinskiywasquestionedaboutNavalniysblogattheMVDandonPiontkovskiysattheFSB.
VenediktovhimselfisonatriptoGenevaAcriminalcasehasbeenopenedagainstPiontkovskiyforpubliccallsforactions
thatwouldviolatetheterritorialintegrityoftheRussianFederation.

InJanuary,IrinaYarovayaoftheDumaSecurityCommitteesentarequestforareviewtotheProsecutorsofficeconcerninga
Piontkovskiyarticle(ABombAbouttoGoOff)thatwaspostedontheEkhowebsite.Beforethat,asimilarrequesthadbeen
madebytheChairmanoftheChechenParliament,MagomedDaudov,whoclaimedthatPiontkovskiywascallingforChechnya
tobeseparatedfromtheRussianFederation.PiontkovskiyleftRussiaon19FebruaryaftertheProsecutorsofficehaduncovered
whatitsaidwasevidenceofextremisminhiswriting.

TheBombarticleappearedon23January.ItcalledfortheseparationofChechnyafromRussia.Ekhosubsequentlydeleted
thelasttwoparagraphsofthearticle.ThearticlesaidthatRussiahadlosttheChechenwarandwasnowpayingoffGrozny,
financingpalacesandgoldenpistolsfortheChechenleaders,whileunemployedyouthswentofftofightfortheIslamists.
PiontkovskiyfurtherclaimedthatsilovikywhoareunhappywithKadyrovmaystartathirdChechenwar.

Piontkovskiyslastcolumn,dated27June,wasaboutthearrestofKirovGovernorNikitaBelykh(Seethenotesfrom27,28,
and29June),whichPiontkovskiyattributedtoanunderthecarpetbattleamongKremlinclans.TheinternalKremlinjunta,
accordingtoPiontkovskiy,sensestheruinousstateoftheregimeandistryingtopreserveitswellbeingbypurgingpartner-
competitorsinpreparationforatransitionalperiod.

AndreyIllarionovre-postedthePiontkovskiyBombarticle:

http://aillarionov.livejournal.com/894698.html

Asfarasthesiloviky,Kadyrov,andtheNemtsovmurder,PiontkovskiytoldKasparov.ru(http://www.kasparov.ru/material.php?
id=576E441AD5B89)thatPutincannotremoveKadyrovthatwouldbeanacknowledgementthathispolicyintheCaucasus
hadcollapsed,bringingintoquestionthelegitimacyoftheregime(sinceitwasVVPsactionsonChechnyathathadhelpedbring
himtopower).Theregimeisenteringaninevitablephaseofpossiblepalacecoups(followingthedefeatoftheRussian
worldconceptinUkraine)andPutinmaythrowabonetothesilovikyintheformofsomeoneclosetoKadyrovwhowas
implicatedintheNemtsovmurderNavalniyandKhodorkovskiyhavejoinedintheattacksonKadyrovandhavesaidthatthe
regimewillchangenotviaelections,butthroughaseriesofpalacecoups(PiontkovskiycallsthesilovikyattacksonKadyrova
sluggishon-goingcoup).PiontkovskiygoesonaboutKhodorkovskiytellingSlon(http://slon.ru/posts/69549)thatajuntaof
7-9wouldemergeafterapalacecoup,theleadersofwhichwouldhavearmedstructuresinthestreetsComment:
KhodormaybealludingtoStrelkov,who,likeKhodorkovskiyandNavalniy,hasalsosaidthatheandhis
supportersarepreparingtostepinaftertheregimecollapses(See,forinstance,the7Junenotes),though
PiontkovskiyseemstothinkheisreferringtoBortnikovsandZolotovsandKadyrovsarmedformations.Moreon
KhodorkovskiyscommentsPiontkovskiysaysheagreeswithKhodorkovskiythatifthecoupdoesntatfirstcomeoff,the
silovikycouldturntoKhodororNavalniyforhelp.OneofthoseKhodorkovskiymentionedaspartofthetransitionalleadership
wasMedvedev.Comment:Khodorkovskiyhasbeensayingthisforawhile.IrecallBelkovskiy,whoIthinkworks
forKhodorkovskiy,alsomentioningMedvedevasatransitionalfigure.

IllarionovsummedupKhodorkovskiysprogram,his(Khodors)regimechangescenario,andlistedthosehe(Illarionov)figured
mightbeontheroundtableoftransitionalleadersheadedbyMedvedevthatwasmentionedbyKhodorkovskiy:
http://www.kasparov.ru/material.php?id=576A2CFD907B7

PutinexitsMedvedevformsatransitionalgovernmentTheparliamentcouldbedissolvedSignificantsocialforceswould
thenplace7-9orasmanyasfifteenpeopleonaroundtableintheplaceofparliamentThesepeoplewillhavearmed
supporterswillingtobackthemupActingasaConstitutionalConvention,theroundtablewillapprovechangestotheRussian
Constitution,ineffectwritinganewoneThisnewconstitutionwillbeanagreementamongthearmedformationsTheround
tablewillbesupportedbyaminority,buteven50,000wouldbeenoughtoturnthecountryonitsheadIf500,000turnouton
thestreets,itistheywhowilldecidethequestionofvlastinRussiaThevastmajoritywillnotbetakingpartintheroundtable
atthatmoment,thepassivemajoritywonthavearoleTheiropinionswontmatteruntiltherearehonestelections.Untilthen,
theroundtablewillactasvlastMedvedevwillorganizenew,honestelectionsApartfromMedvedev,Kudrincouldbepartof
thetransitionalleadership,ascouldKhodorkovskiyandNavalniyThetransitionalleadershipwontbeadictatorship,its
anotherformofauthority

Illarionovnameshisversionofafifteen-personroundtableleadership(assumingPutinmakesanexit):Khodorkovskiy,
Medvedev,Kudrin,Navalniy,SergeyIvanov,Shoygu,Bortnikov,Kolokoltsev,Bastrykin,Zolotov,Kadyrov,Sobyanin,
Zyuganov,Zhirinovskiy,Strelkov.
Piontkovskiyonsilovikyshakeups

PutinwillgiveupanyoneforthesakeofKadyrov

http://mobile.twitter.com/apiontkovsky/status/740587590483640321

AndreiPiontkovsky@apiontkovsky

.,,,,.-
,,.

9:53AM-8Jun2016

Comment:PiontkovskiyalsosaysthatYuriYakovlevisBortnikovsman.Seethe30Junenotes,whichmentioneda
Bortnikov-Yakovlevconnection.

SoloveysaystheKremlindoesntcareforBortnikov

Hisremarkisoneofthecommentsonthispost:http://m.vk.com/wall244477574_19214?post_add#post_add

SoloveywasreferringtoareportaboutanincidentinvolvingFSBAcademygraduatesracingtoMoscowinthreedozen
MercedesGelandewagensandcausingallkindsofproblemsontheroads,withnumeroustrafficviolationstheFSBwasforced
toopenanofficialinquiryabouttheincident.SoloveywassayingthattheKremlinwasalreadynothappywithBortnikov:
http://m.ria.ru/incidents/20160704/1458402678.html
NovayaGazetaDeputyDirector(andformerFSBofficer)ValeriyShiryayevontheincident(AcademyGraduateshave
DestroyedtheirReputationsEvenbeforeBeginningtheirService):http://www.novayagazeta.ru/columns/73696.html)Thereis
videoatthelink

SergeyKanevonBelykh

Backon10June,wereadthatOlegFeoktistovwouldtakeoveratFSBInternalSecurity(FSBUSB)afterhisbossthere,
SergeyKorolev,movedovertoheadFSBEconomicSecurity(FSBSEB),whileFSBUSBsIvanTkachevwouldtakeoverat
FSBSEBsDirectorateK.On14June,wesawanothermentionofFeoktistovtakingoveratFSBUSB.On28June,wesaw
areportthatFeoktistovhadheadedtheoperationtargetingBelykh.FeoktistovalsoplayedaroleintheGUEBiPKscandal.See,
forinstance,the14May2014notes.

NewTimesalsoreportsthatFeoktistovheadedtheoperationtargetingBelykh:http://www.newtimes.ru/articles/detail/113672/

AttheLubyanka,FeoktistovisknownasBigOlegorGeneralFikus.Hehasforalongtimeaimedtotakeoverasheadof
hisdirectorate.TheBelykharrestisanadditionaltrumpcardinthedeckforhimBelykh,whohasbeencriticizedbyPutin
previously(Seethe28Junenotes),wasreputedlybreathingeasierwhenPutin,speakingattheSt.PetersburgEconomicForum,
declaredthatKirovOblastwasamongthosewhichweredoingbetteronimprovingtheinvestmentclimateButBelykmayhave
beenmistakensourcessaythattheFSBhasbeeneyeingBelykhsince2012andPutinwaswellawareofthat.*Ontheday
Belykhwasarrested,PutinwasonatriptoChinaOneKanevsourcesaysthattheKirovregionalFSBhasbeenhostileto
BelykhforsometimeashehadcutthemofffromlucrativesourcesofincomeAnotherstorymakingtheroundsinKirovOblast
isthatNikitaBelykhwasnottheprimarytargetthatwouldbehisbrotherAleksandr,whoresignedfromtheProsecutorsoffice
(heheadedtheVolgaregionProsecutorsoffice)followinghisbrothersarrest(Seethe29Junenotes).Aleksandrwassaidto
beslatedforapositionasoneofChaykasdeputiesAnothersourceisconvincedthattheSeptemberelectionshavenothingto
dowithBelykhsarresthehadalreadyreachedagreementwithUnitedRussiaabouttheelectionsandBelykhwasapartofthe
system

*ButNovayaGazetasIrekMurtazinclaimsthatPutinwasinformedaboutBelykhsdetentiononlyafterthefact.Putinwasin
BeijingandhadnotbeeninformedabouttheFSB/SKoperationalexperimenttargetingBelykh:
http://www.novayagazeta.ru/inquests/73675.html

PutinappointstwoZolotovNationalGuarddeputies

http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/3026102

ThetwoareLt.GeneralBorukayevandLt.GeneralSergeyYerygin.PutinalsoabolishedthepostofMVDInternalTroops
CommanderTheMVDministerwillfromnowonhaveseven,noteight,deputies
PutingivesRolduginanaward

http://meduza.io/news/2016/07/04/putin-nagradil-roldugina-ordenom-za-bezuprechnuyu-gosudarstvennuyu-sluzhbu

PutinawardedRolduginwiththeOrderofAleksandrNevskiyTheawardwasgivenbecauseofRolduginscontributionsto
humanitarianforeignpolicyactionsthathavestrengthenedfriendshipandpeacebetweenpeoples

Whoistoblame?(Fortheeconomiccrisis)

http://slon.ru/posts/70181

ThearticledrawsonresearchdonebytheHigherEconomicsSchoolandLevadapollsEverythirdfamilywithchildrendoesnt
havemoneyformedicineandhalfofthemareholdingbackonmeetingpaymentobligationsRealincomesarefallingand
unemploymentisrising,asarepricesSlonlooksattheresultsoftheLevadapollingforJuneonright/wrongdirectionand
approvalPutinremainspopularintheperiodfollowingtheCrimeacampaign/annexation,hisapprovalratinghasnotdropped
below80%.ThedeclineoftherubleandcorruptionscandalshavenothurtPutinthepublicseemstothinkPutinwantsto
improvethingsforthepeople,butisheldupbythebureaucracyandaweakteamMeanwhile,Medvedevsandthe
governmentsapprovalratingshavedeclined:Medvedevshasdeclinedfrom73%in2008to51%todayandtheright/wrong
directionnumberstrackwithMedvedevsapprovalratingsovertime

Herearetheright/wrongdirection,approval/trustratingsfromthe30Junenotes(Comment:Putinstrustratingisdown
significantlysincelastspring):

[http://www.levada.ru/2016/06/30/iyunskie-rejtingi-odobreniya-i-doveriya-6/

50%saythatthecountryismovingintherightdirection(49%lastmonth64%inJune2015)Wrongdirection33%(33%18%)Hardtosay
18%(18%14%)Putinsapprovalratingisat81%(80%lastmonth89%inJune,2015)Medvedevsapprovalratingisat51%(54%inMay),
whilethegovernmentsis48%(49%)Approvalofgovernorsisat51%(55%inMay)Dumaapprovalis41%(42%lastmonth)Name5-6
politiciansorpublicfiguresyoutrustPutinin1stplaceat51%(60%inMarch),followedbyShoygu(24%),Lavrov(17%),Medvedev(13%),
Zhirinovskiy(13%),andZyuganov(11%)]

TheReserveFundwillrunoutin2017?

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/russias-reserve-fund-to-run-empty-in-2017/574344.html

RussiawillemptyitsReserveFundnextyearandwillstartdippingintotheNationalWelfareFund,theReutersnewsagencyreported
Tuesday,citingdraftbudgetmaterials.

Amidbudgetdeficit,theFinanceMinistryisexpectedtoincreasedomesticborrowingfourorfivetimeswithinthreeyears.

TheministryisnotplanningsignificantcutstoRussiasexpensesinanticipationoftheStateDumaandpresidentialelections,
Reutersreported.Expenseswillbefixedat15.78trillionrubles($245.7billion)overthreeyears.

Russiawillfillholesinitsbudgetcausedbyaconsistentdeclineingrossdomesticproductusingfundsandloans.Bytheendof
2016,therewillbe980billionrubles($15.27billion)leftintheReserveFund,oneofitstwosovereignfunds.Thisfundwillbeemptied
atsomepointin2017,accordingtoministrymaterials.

TheFinanceMinistrysaysthatRussiawouldspend783billionrubles($12.13billion)fromtheNationalWelfareFundin2017and883
billionrubles($13.68billion)in2018,Reutersreported.

TheNationalWelfareFund,whichheld$73billionatthestartofJuly,wasformedin2008whentheStabilizationFundwassplitinto
theReserveFundandtheNationalWelfareFund.Aboutone-thirdoftheNationalWelfareFundisinvestedinRussianstate
developmentbankVneshekonombank(VEB)andotherprojects.

MoscowCityCourtreleasesDmitriyKamenshchikfromhousearrest
Thereleaseorderwasmadeon1JulySeethe19Mayand3Junenotes.
http://crimerussia.com/en/gromkie-dela/the-moscow-city-court-discharged-dmitry-kamenshchik/

ThePresidiumoftheMoscowCityCourtallowedaremedialactionorderbythefirstdeputyprosecutor-generalVladimir
Malinovsky,whodemandedthereleaseoftheownerofDomodedovoairportDmitryKamenshchikfromhousearrest.
AccordingtoRBK,hecanremoveanelectronicanklebraceletassoonastheFederalPenitentiaryServiceofRussia
receivesallthenecessarydocuments.

TheProsecutorGeneral'sOfficehasseveraltimesdemandedcriminalchargesagainsttopmanagersoftheairportbe
droppedHowever,theInvestigativeCommitteeoftheRussianFederationoverturnedtheremedialactionorderofthe
procuracyandcontinuedtheinvestigation

AmericancompanywillresumebusinessinCrimea

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/first-american-company-to-return-to-crimea-since-russia-
sanctions/574325.html

TheCourseraonlineeducationalservicehasreceivedpermissionfromtheU.S.governmenttooperateinCrimea,theKommersant
newspaperreportedonTuesday.

Courseratheworld'slargestonlinelearningplatformhasbeenunavailabletoresidentsoftheannexedpeninsulasinceFeb.1,
2015inconnectionwithsanctionsplacedonRussiabytheU.S.

Manymembersoftheeducationalcommunitywereopposedtothis,sayingthateducationshouldbeavailabletopeoplearoundthe
world.

IdonotknowasingleAmericanprofessorwhosupportedtheserestrictions[onaccessingCoursera]inCrimea,saidIsaacFrumin
fromtheHigherSchoolofEconomics,Kommersantreported.

InesRoman,aspokespersonforCoursera,statedinJunethattheU.S.OfficeofForeignAssetsControlgavethewebsiteaspecial
licensetoworkinCrimea.

Wethinkitisveryimportantthattheopportunitytoreceiveabettereducationisavailabletoeveryone,wherevertheylive,saidthe
spokesperson.

KlintsevichsaysSnowdencooperatedwithRussianintelligence

http://20committee.com/2016/07/02/the-kremlin-admits-snowden-is-a-russian-agent/

Now,theKremlinhassettledtheissueonceandforallbystatingthatEdwardSnowdenisindeedtheirman.Inaremarkableinterviewthis
week,FranzKlintsevich,aseniorRussiansecurityofficial,explainedthecasematter-of-factly:Letsbefrank.Snowdendidshareintelligence.
Thisiswhatsecurityservicesdo.Iftheresapossibilitytogetinformation,theywillgetit.

Withthis,KlintsevichsimplysaidwhatallintelligenceprofessionalsalreadyknewthatSnowdenisacollaboratorwiththeFSB.Thathereally
hadnochoiceinthematteroncehesetfootinRussiadoesnotchangethefacts.

Klintsevichisnoidlespeculator.HeisasenatorwhohasservedintheStateDumafornearlyadecade.Moreimportantly,heisthedeputychair
ofthesenatesdefenseandsecuritycommittee,whichoverseesthespecialservices.The59-year-oldKlintsevichthushasaccesstomanystate
secretsforinstanceregardingtheSnowdencase.

HeisalsoaretiredRussianarmycolonel,havingserved22yearsintheeliteAirborneForces(VDV).KlintsevichsawactioninAfghanistaninthe
1980swiththeVDVand,basedonacarefulreadingofhisbiography,appearstohaveservedwithGRU,thatismilitaryintelligence(hisworkin
specialpropagandainAfghanistanandhis1991graduationfromtheLeninMilitary-PoliticalAcademyareindicationsofhisGRUaffiliation).

Klintsevichisnotawell-knownfigureoutsideRussiaheappearedintheWesternpressbrieflyin2012withhisshort-livedideatobuyHitlers
birthhouseinBraunau,inordertodestroyitbutheisawell-connectedmemberoftheKremlinsrulingelite.Givenhissenatecommittee
positionandhisGRUpast,thereisnodoubtthatKlintsevichisconsiderednash(ours)byRussiasspecialservices.

HisstatementoutingSnowdensrelationshipwiththeKremlinthereforecannotbeanaccidentoraslipofthetongue.Forwhateverreason,Putin
hasdecidedtooutSnowdenasthecollaboratorthatheactuallyisandhasbeenforthreeyearsalready.

OnereasonforthismaybeSnowdensrecenttepidcriticismviaTwitterofRussiasdraconiannewlawsondomesticsurveillancewhichvastly
exceedanyoftheactivitiesoftheWesterndemocraciesthatSnowdenhassostronglycriticizedfromhisFSBhideaway.Indeed,hishostsfinally
allowingtheirAmericancollaboratortotweetnegativelyaboutRussiamanyhadnotedSnowdenssilenceonFSBrepressionandworsemay
beasignthatthedefectorhasoutlivedhisusefulness.

Intruth,SnowdenwasneverallthatwellinformedaboutAmericanintelligence.Contrarytothemythsthatheandhismouthpieceshave
propagated,hewasnomorethananITsystemsadministrator.Snowdenwasneveranysortofbonafidespy.Therearenoindicationshereally
understandsmostofwhathestolefromNSA.

TheFSBthereforemilkedSnowdenofanyvaluableinformationratherquickly.Helikelyhadlittlelighttoshedonthemillion-plussecretfileshe
stole.Instead,hisvaluetoMoscowhasbeenasakeyplayerinKremlinpropagandadesignedtodiscredittheWesternintelligencealliance.

Inthatrole,SnowdenhasdoneagreatdealofdamagetotheWest.ButhewasneveramoleforMoscowinsideNSA.Inreality,theSnowden
OperationisprobablyacovertodeflectattentionfromtheoneormoreactualRussianmoleswhohavebeenlurkinginsideNSAforyears,
undetected.

BasedonthecasesofpreviousWesternintelligencedefectorstoMoscow,EdwardSnowdenfacesanunhappyfuture.Whateverhappenstohim
isuptohishosts,whocontrolallaspectsofanydefectorslife.Therenolongercanbeanyhonestdebateabouthisrelationshipwiththe
Kremlin,whichhassettledthematteronceandforall.PutinandhisspecialservicesconsiderSnowdentobenashthereisnoquestionabout
thatnow.

(ThisarticleoriginallyappearedinBILDinGerman,youcanreadthathere.)

From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 07/05/201611:02:34AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:"theFSBareseizingthecorrespondenceofthesite'EkhoMoskvy'withAndreiPIONTKOVSKII,"
Subject:
http://graniru.org/Society/Law/m.252821.html

From:JohnBDunlop
Sent:Tuesday,July05,201611:02AM
To:howard@jamestown.org
Cc:paul.goble@gmail.com'waz2102@caa.columbia.edu'
Subject:"theFSBareseizingthecorrespondenceofthesite'EkhoMoskvy'withAndreiPIONTKOVSKII,"
http://graniru.org/Society/Law/m.252821.html

ThechiefeditorofthewebsiteofEkhoMoskvyandotheremployeesofthesitehavebeensummoned
totheFSBforformalquestioning.
ThefocusoftheFSBsattentionhasbeenthesitescorrespondencewithoppositionmathematician
AndreiPiontkovskywholeftRussiainFebruary.
Piontkovskyischargedwithpublicappealstocarryoutactionsdirectedattheinfringementofthe
territorialintegrityoftheRussianFederation.[ThereferenceistohisviewsonCrimeaandthe
Donbas]

And:FranklinFoer,PUTINsPUPPET:IftheRussianpresidentcoulddesignacandidatetoundermine
AmericaninterestsandadvancehisownheslookalotlikeDonaldTRUMP,slate.com,7/4
11pageheavilydocumentedessay

OneproKremlinbloggersummeduphisgovernmentsinterestinthis[American]]electionwith
clarifyingbluntness:TrumpwillsmashAmericaasweknowit,wevegotnothingtolose.
From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 07/05/201611:03:45PM
To: PeterReddaway<pbreddaway@gmail.com>
Cc: WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>
Subject: Re:InternetNotes5July2016

Ifthisisthecase,itsmoreinterestingthanyoumightthinkatfirstblushsinceitwastheFSBthatwentafterMikhalchenko.

OnJul5,2016,at6:38PM,PeterReddaway<pbreddaway@gmail.com>wrote:

W
ayne,

V.interestingaboutPutin'sapparentthreatstoBortnikov(p.3).LinksupwithwhatBobreminded
meabouttheotherday(andIforwardedtoyou),namelythatBortnikovwas-forsomeyearsat
least-Mikhalchenko'skrysha.SoM'sarrestwasprobablyonemorePutinthreattoBortnikov.

Best,

Peter

OnTue,Jul5,2016at6:27PM,WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>wrote:

InternetNotes5July2016

FSBraidonEkhoMoskvy(PiontkovskiyApalacecoupandatransitionalperiod:
Piontkovskiy/Khodorkovskiy/Illarionov).1

Piontkovskiyonsilovikyshakeups.3

SoloveysaystheKremlindoesntcareforBortnikov.3

SergeyKanevonBelykh.3

PutinappointstwoZolotovNationalGuarddeputies.4

PutingivesRolduginanaward..4

Whoistoblame?(Fortheeconomiccrisis).4

TheReserveFundwillrunoutin2017?.5

MoscowCityCourtreleasesDmitriyKamenshchikfromhousearrest.6

AmericancompanywillresumebusinessinCrimea.6

KlintsevichsaysSnowdencooperatedwithRussianintelligence.7

FSBraidonEkhoMoskvy(PiontkovskiyApalacecoupandatransitionalperiod:
Piontkovskiy/Khodorkovskiy/Illarionov)
http://www.newsru.com/russia/05jul2016/echo_print.html

AccordingtoEkhoChiefEditorAlekseyVenediktov,theraidtookplaceonTuesday.TheFSBwasafterEkhos
e-mailcorrespondencewithpublicistAndreyPiontkovskiy.SomeEkhoemployeeshavebeencalledinfor
questioningbytheFSBandMVD.EditorVitaliyRuvinskiywasquestionedaboutNavalniysblogattheMVDand
onPiontkovskiysattheFSB.VenediktovhimselfisonatriptoGenevaAcriminalcasehasbeenopenedagainst
PiontkovskiyforpubliccallsforactionsthatwouldviolatetheterritorialintegrityoftheRussianFederation.

InJanuary,IrinaYarovayaoftheDumaSecurityCommitteesentarequestforareviewtotheProsecutorsoffice
concerningaPiontkovskiyarticle(ABombAbouttoGoOff)thatwaspostedontheEkhowebsite.Beforethat,
asimilarrequesthadbeenmadebytheChairmanoftheChechenParliament,MagomedDaudov,whoclaimedthat
PiontkovskiywascallingforChechnyatobeseparatedfromtheRussianFederation.PiontkovskiyleftRussiaon19
FebruaryaftertheProsecutorsofficehaduncoveredwhatitsaidwasevidenceofextremisminhiswriting.

TheBombarticleappearedon23January.ItcalledfortheseparationofChechnyafromRussia.Ekho
subsequentlydeletedthelasttwoparagraphsofthearticle.ThearticlesaidthatRussiahadlosttheChechenwar
andwasnowpayingoffGrozny,financingpalacesandgoldenpistolsfortheChechenleaders,while
unemployedyouthswentofftofightfortheIslamists.Piontkovskiyfurtherclaimedthatsilovikywhoareunhappy
withKadyrovmaystartathirdChechenwar.

Piontkovskiyslastcolumn,dated27June,wasaboutthearrestofKirovGovernorNikitaBelykh(Seethenotes
from27,28,and29June),whichPiontkovskiyattributedtoanunderthecarpetbattleamongKremlinclans.
TheinternalKremlinjunta,accordingtoPiontkovskiy,sensestheruinousstateoftheregimeandistryingto
preserveitswellbeingbypurgingpartner-competitorsinpreparationforatransitionalperiod.

AndreyIllarionovre-postedthePiontkovskiyBombarticle:

http://aillarionov.livejournal.com/894698.html

Asfarasthesiloviky,Kadyrov,andtheNemtsovmurder,PiontkovskiytoldKasparov.ru
(http://www.kasparov.ru/material.php?id=576E441AD5B89)thatPutincannotremoveKadyrovthatwouldbe
anacknowledgementthathispolicyintheCaucasushadcollapsed,bringingintoquestionthelegitimacyofthe
regime(sinceitwasVVPsactionsonChechnyathathadhelpedbringhimtopower).Theregimeisenteringan
inevitablephaseofpossiblepalacecoups(followingthedefeatoftheRussianworldconceptinUkraine)
andPutinmaythrowabonetothesilovikyintheformofsomeoneclosetoKadyrovwhowasimplicatedinthe
NemtsovmurderNavalniyandKhodorkovskiyhavejoinedintheattacksonKadyrovandhavesaidthatthe
regimewillchangenotviaelections,butthroughaseriesofpalacecoups(Piontkovskiycallsthesilovikyattackson
Kadyrovasluggishon-goingcoup).PiontkovskiygoesonaboutKhodorkovskiytellingSlon
(http://slon.ru/posts/69549)thatajuntaof7-9wouldemergeafterapalacecoup,theleadersofwhichwould
havearmedstructuresinthestreetsComment:KhodormaybealludingtoStrelkov,who,like
KhodorkovskiyandNavalniy,hasalsosaidthatheandhissupportersarepreparingtostepinafterthe
regimecollapses(See,forinstance,the7Junenotes),thoughPiontkovskiyseemstothinkheis
referringtoBortnikovsandZolotovsandKadyrovsarmedformations.MoreonKhodorkovskiys
commentsPiontkovskiysaysheagreeswithKhodorkovskiythatifthecoupdoesntatfirstcomeoff,thesiloviky
couldturntoKhodororNavalniyforhelp.OneofthoseKhodorkovskiymentionedaspartofthetransitional
leadershipwasMedvedev.Comment:Khodorkovskiyhasbeensayingthisforawhile.Irecall
Belkovskiy,whoIthinkworksforKhodorkovskiy,alsomentioningMedvedevasatransitionalfigure.

IllarionovsummedupKhodorkovskiysprogram,his(Khodors)regimechangescenario,andlistedthosehe
(Illarionov)figuredmightbeontheroundtableoftransitionalleadersheadedbyMedvedevthatwasmentioned
byKhodorkovskiy:http://www.kasparov.ru/material.php?id=576A2CFD907B7

PutinexitsMedvedevformsatransitionalgovernmentTheparliamentcouldbedissolvedSignificantsocial
forceswouldthenplace7-9orasmanyasfifteenpeopleonaroundtableintheplaceofparliamentThese
peoplewillhavearmedsupporterswillingtobackthemupActingasaConstitutionalConvention,theroundtable
willapprovechangestotheRussianConstitution,ineffectwritinganewoneThisnewconstitutionwillbean
agreementamongthearmedformationsTheroundtablewillbesupportedbyaminority,buteven50,000would
beenoughtoturnthecountryonitsheadIf500,000turnoutonthestreets,itistheywhowilldecidethequestion
ofvlastinRussiaThevastmajoritywillnotbetakingpartintheroundtableatthatmoment,thepassivemajority
wonthavearoleTheiropinionswontmatteruntiltherearehonestelections.Untilthen,theroundtablewillact
asvlastMedvedevwillorganizenew,honestelectionsApartfromMedvedev,Kudrincouldbepartofthe
transitionalleadership,ascouldKhodorkovskiyandNavalniyThetransitionalleadershipwontbeadictatorship,
itsanotherformofauthority

Illarionovnameshisversionofafifteen-personroundtableleadership(assumingPutinmakesanexit):
Khodorkovskiy,Medvedev,Kudrin,Navalniy,SergeyIvanov,Shoygu,Bortnikov,Kolokoltsev,Bastrykin,Zolotov,
Kadyrov,Sobyanin,Zyuganov,Zhirinovskiy,Strelkov.

Piontkovskiyonsilovikyshakeups

PutinwillgiveupanyoneforthesakeofKadyrov

http://mobile.twitter.com/apiontkovsky/status/740587590483640321

AndreiPiontkovsky@apiontkovsky

.,,,,.
-,,.

9:53AM-8Jun2016

Comment:PiontkovskiyalsosaysthatYuriYakovlevisBortnikovsman.Seethe30Junenotes,which
mentionedaBortnikov-Yakovlevconnection.

SoloveysaystheKremlindoesntcareforBortnikov

Hisremarkisoneofthecommentsonthispost:http://m.vk.com/wall244477574_19214?post_add#post_add

SoloveywasreferringtoareportaboutanincidentinvolvingFSBAcademygraduatesracingtoMoscowinthree
dozenMercedesGelandewagensandcausingallkindsofproblemsontheroads,withnumeroustrafficviolations
theFSBwasforcedtoopenanofficialinquiryabouttheincident.SoloveywassayingthattheKremlinwasalready
nothappywithBortnikov:http://m.ria.ru/incidents/20160704/1458402678.html

NovayaGazetaDeputyDirector(andformerFSBofficer)ValeriyShiryayevontheincident(AcademyGraduates
haveDestroyedtheirReputationsEvenbeforeBeginningtheirService):
http://www.novayagazeta.ru/columns/73696.html)Thereisvideoatthelink

SergeyKanevonBelykh

Backon10June,wereadthatOlegFeoktistovwouldtakeoveratFSBInternalSecurity(FSBUSB)afterhis
bossthere,SergeyKorolev,movedovertoheadFSBEconomicSecurity(FSBSEB),whileFSBUSBsIvan
TkachevwouldtakeoveratFSBSEBsDirectorateK.On14June,wesawanothermentionofFeoktistovtaking
overatFSBUSB.On28June,wesawareportthatFeoktistovhadheadedtheoperationtargetingBelykh.
FeoktistovalsoplayedaroleintheGUEBiPKscandal.See,forinstance,the14May2014notes.

NewTimesalsoreportsthatFeoktistovheadedtheoperationtargetingBelykh:
http://www.newtimes.ru/articles/detail/113672/
AttheLubyanka,FeoktistovisknownasBigOlegorGeneralFikus.Hehasforalongtimeaimedtotakeover
asheadofhisdirectorate.TheBelykharrestisanadditionaltrumpcardinthedeckforhimBelykh,whohas
beencriticizedbyPutinpreviously(Seethe28Junenotes),wasreputedlybreathingeasierwhenPutin,speakingat
theSt.PetersburgEconomicForum,declaredthatKirovOblastwasamongthosewhichweredoingbetteron
improvingtheinvestmentclimateButBelykmayhavebeenmistakensourcessaythattheFSBhasbeeneyeing
Belykhsince2012andPutinwaswellawareofthat.*OnthedayBelykhwasarrested,Putinwasonatripto
ChinaOneKanevsourcesaysthattheKirovregionalFSBhasbeenhostiletoBelykhforsometimeashehadcut
themofffromlucrativesourcesofincomeAnotherstorymakingtheroundsinKirovOblastisthatNikitaBelykh
wasnottheprimarytargetthatwouldbehisbrotherAleksandr,whoresignedfromtheProsecutorsoffice(he
headedtheVolgaregionProsecutorsoffice)followinghisbrothersarrest(Seethe29Junenotes).Aleksandrwas
saidtobeslatedforapositionasoneofChaykasdeputiesAnothersourceisconvincedthattheSeptember
electionshavenothingtodowithBelykhsarresthehadalreadyreachedagreementwithUnitedRussiaaboutthe
electionsandBelykhwasapartofthesystem
*ButNovayaGazetasIrekMurtazinclaimsthatPutinwasinformedaboutBelykhsdetentiononlyafterthefact.
PutinwasinBeijingandhadnotbeeninformedabouttheFSB/SKoperationalexperimenttargetingBelykh:
http://www.novayagazeta.ru/inquests/73675.html

PutinappointstwoZolotovNationalGuarddeputies

http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/3026102

ThetwoareLt.GeneralBorukayevandLt.GeneralSergeyYerygin.PutinalsoabolishedthepostofMVD
InternalTroopsCommanderTheMVDministerwillfromnowonhaveseven,noteight,deputies

PutingivesRolduginanaward

http://meduza.io/news/2016/07/04/putin-nagradil-roldugina-ordenom-za-bezuprechnuyu-gosudarstvennuyu-sluzhbu

PutinawardedRolduginwiththeOrderofAleksandrNevskiyTheawardwasgivenbecauseofRoldugins
contributionstohumanitarianforeignpolicyactionsthathavestrengthenedfriendshipandpeacebetween
peoples

Whoistoblame?(Fortheeconomiccrisis)

http://slon.ru/posts/70181

ThearticledrawsonresearchdonebytheHigherEconomicsSchoolandLevadapollsEverythirdfamilywith
childrendoesnthavemoneyformedicineandhalfofthemareholdingbackonmeetingpaymentobligationsReal
incomesarefallingandunemploymentisrising,asarepricesSlonlooksattheresultsoftheLevadapollingfor
Juneonright/wrongdirectionandapprovalPutinremainspopularintheperiodfollowingtheCrimea
campaign/annexation,hisapprovalratinghasnotdroppedbelow80%.Thedeclineoftherubleandcorruption
scandalshavenothurtPutinthepublicseemstothinkPutinwantstoimprovethingsforthepeople,butisheldup
bythebureaucracyandaweakteamMeanwhile,Medvedevsandthegovernmentsapprovalratingshave
declined:Medvedevshasdeclinedfrom73%in2008to51%todayandtheright/wrongdirectionnumberstrack
withMedvedevsapprovalratingsovertime

Herearetheright/wrongdirection,approval/trustratingsfromthe30Junenotes(Comment:Putinstrust
ratingisdownsignificantlysincelastspring):

[http://www.levada.ru/2016/06/30/iyunskie-rejtingi-odobreniya-i-doveriya-6/

50%saythatthecountryismovingintherightdirection(49%lastmonth64%inJune2015)Wrongdirection33%(33%18%)
Hardtosay18%(18%14%)Putinsapprovalratingisat81%(80%lastmonth89%inJune,2015)Medvedevsapproval
ratingisat51%(54%inMay),whilethegovernmentsis48%(49%)Approvalofgovernorsisat51%(55%inMay)Duma
approvalis41%(42%lastmonth)Name5-6politiciansorpublicfiguresyoutrustPutinin1stplaceat51%(60%inMarch),
followedbyShoygu(24%),Lavrov(17%),Medvedev(13%),Zhirinovskiy(13%),andZyuganov(11%)]

TheReserveFundwillrunoutin2017?

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/russias-reserve-fund-to-run-empty-in-2017/574344.html

RussiawillemptyitsReserveFundnextyearandwillstartdippingintotheNationalWelfareFund,theReutersnews
agencyreportedTuesday,citingdraftbudgetmaterials.

Amidbudgetdeficit,theFinanceMinistryisexpectedtoincreasedomesticborrowingfourorfivetimeswithinthree
years.

TheministryisnotplanningsignificantcutstoRussiasexpensesinanticipationoftheStateDumaandpresidential
elections,Reutersreported.Expenseswillbefixedat15.78trillionrubles($245.7billion)overthreeyears.

Russiawillfillholesinitsbudgetcausedbyaconsistentdeclineingrossdomesticproductusingfundsandloans.By
theendof2016,therewillbe980billionrubles($15.27billion)leftintheReserveFund,oneofitstwosovereignfunds.
Thisfundwillbeemptiedatsomepointin2017,accordingtoministrymaterials.

TheFinanceMinistrysaysthatRussiawouldspend783billionrubles($12.13billion)fromtheNationalWelfareFundin
2017and883billionrubles($13.68billion)in2018,Reutersreported.

TheNationalWelfareFund,whichheld$73billionatthestartofJuly,wasformedin2008whentheStabilizationFund
wassplitintotheReserveFundandtheNationalWelfareFund.Aboutone-thirdoftheNationalWelfareFundisinvested
inRussianstatedevelopmentbankVneshekonombank(VEB)andotherprojects.

MoscowCityCourtreleasesDmitriyKamenshchikfromhousearrest

Thereleaseorderwasmadeon1JulySeethe19Mayand3Junenotes.

http://crimerussia.com/en/gromkie-dela/the-moscow-city-court-discharged-dmitry-kamenshchik/

ThePresidiumoftheMoscowCityCourtallowedaremedialactionorderbythefirstdeputyprosecutor-
generalVladimirMalinovsky,whodemandedthereleaseoftheownerofDomodedovoairportDmitry
Kamenshchikfromhousearrest.AccordingtoRBK,hecanremoveanelectronicanklebraceletassoonas
theFederalPenitentiaryServiceofRussiareceivesallthenecessarydocuments.

TheProsecutorGeneral'sOfficehasseveraltimesdemandedcriminalchargesagainsttopmanagersof
theairportbedroppedHowever,theInvestigativeCommitteeoftheRussianFederationoverturnedthe
remedialactionorderoftheprocuracyandcontinuedtheinvestigation

AmericancompanywillresumebusinessinCrimea

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/first-american-company-to-return-to-crimea-since-
russia-sanctions/574325.html

TheCourseraonlineeducationalservicehasreceivedpermissionfromtheU.S.governmenttooperateinCrimea,the
KommersantnewspaperreportedonTuesday.

Courseratheworld'slargestonlinelearningplatformhasbeenunavailabletoresidentsoftheannexedpeninsula
sinceFeb.1,2015inconnectionwithsanctionsplacedonRussiabytheU.S.

Manymembersoftheeducationalcommunitywereopposedtothis,sayingthateducationshouldbeavailabletopeople
aroundtheworld.

IdonotknowasingleAmericanprofessorwhosupportedtheserestrictions[onaccessingCoursera]inCrimea,said
IsaacFruminfromtheHigherSchoolofEconomics,Kommersantreported.
InesRoman,aspokespersonforCoursera,statedinJunethattheU.S.OfficeofForeignAssetsControlgavethe
websiteaspeciallicensetoworkinCrimea.

Wethinkitisveryimportantthattheopportunitytoreceiveabettereducationisavailabletoeveryone,whereverthey
live,saidthespokesperson.

KlintsevichsaysSnowdencooperatedwithRussianintelligence

http://20committee.com/2016/07/02/the-kremlin-admits-snowden-is-a-russian-agent/

Now,theKremlinhassettledtheissueonceandforallbystatingthatEdwardSnowdenisindeedtheirman.Inaremarkable
interviewthisweek,FranzKlintsevich,aseniorRussiansecurityofficial,explainedthecasematter-of-factly:Letsbefrank.
Snowdendidshareintelligence.Thisiswhatsecurityservicesdo.Iftheresapossibilitytogetinformation,theywillgetit.

Withthis,KlintsevichsimplysaidwhatallintelligenceprofessionalsalreadyknewthatSnowdenisacollaboratorwiththeFSB.
ThathereallyhadnochoiceinthematteroncehesetfootinRussiadoesnotchangethefacts.

Klintsevichisnoidlespeculator.HeisasenatorwhohasservedintheStateDumafornearlyadecade.Moreimportantly,heisthe
deputychairofthesenatesdefenseandsecuritycommittee,whichoverseesthespecialservices.The59-year-oldKlintsevich
thushasaccesstomanystatesecretsforinstanceregardingtheSnowdencase.

HeisalsoaretiredRussianarmycolonel,havingserved22yearsintheeliteAirborneForces(VDV).Klintsevichsawactionin
Afghanistaninthe1980swiththeVDVand,basedonacarefulreadingofhisbiography,appearstohaveservedwithGRU,thatis
militaryintelligence(hisworkinspecialpropagandainAfghanistanandhis1991graduationfromtheLeninMilitary-Political
AcademyareindicationsofhisGRUaffiliation).

Klintsevichisnotawell-knownfigureoutsideRussiaheappearedintheWesternpressbrieflyin2012withhisshort-lived
ideatobuyHitlersbirthhouseinBraunau,inordertodestroyitbutheisawell-connectedmemberoftheKremlinsrulingelite.
GivenhissenatecommitteepositionandhisGRUpast,thereisnodoubtthatKlintsevichisconsiderednash(ours)byRussias
specialservices.

HisstatementoutingSnowdensrelationshipwiththeKremlinthereforecannotbeanaccidentoraslipofthetongue.For
whateverreason,PutinhasdecidedtooutSnowdenasthecollaboratorthatheactuallyisandhasbeenforthreeyearsalready.

OnereasonforthismaybeSnowdensrecenttepidcriticismviaTwitterofRussiasdraconiannewlawsondomesticsurveillance
whichvastlyexceedanyoftheactivitiesoftheWesterndemocraciesthatSnowdenhassostronglycriticizedfromhisFSB
hideaway.Indeed,hishostsfinallyallowingtheirAmericancollaboratortotweetnegativelyaboutRussiamanyhadnoted
SnowdenssilenceonFSBrepressionandworsemaybeasignthatthedefectorhasoutlivedhisusefulness.

Intruth,SnowdenwasneverallthatwellinformedaboutAmericanintelligence.Contrarytothemythsthatheandhismouthpieces
havepropagated,hewasnomorethananITsystemsadministrator.Snowdenwasneveranysortofbonafidespy.Thereareno
indicationshereallyunderstandsmostofwhathestolefromNSA.

TheFSBthereforemilkedSnowdenofanyvaluableinformationratherquickly.Helikelyhadlittlelighttoshedonthemillion-plus
secretfileshestole.Instead,hisvaluetoMoscowhasbeenasakeyplayerinKremlinpropagandadesignedtodiscreditthe
Westernintelligencealliance.

Inthatrole,SnowdenhasdoneagreatdealofdamagetotheWest.ButhewasneveramoleforMoscowinsideNSA.Inreality,
theSnowdenOperationisprobablyacovertodeflectattentionfromtheoneormoreactualRussianmoleswhohavebeenlurking
insideNSAforyears,undetected.

BasedonthecasesofpreviousWesternintelligencedefectorstoMoscow,EdwardSnowdenfacesanunhappyfuture.Whatever
happenstohimisuptohishosts,whocontrolallaspectsofanydefectorslife.Therenolongercanbeanyhonestdebateabout
hisrelationshipwiththeKremlin,whichhassettledthematteronceandforall.PutinandhisspecialservicesconsiderSnowdento
benashthereisnoquestionaboutthatnow.

(ThisarticleoriginallyappearedinBILDinGerman,youcanreadthathere.)

From: WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>
Senttime: 07/05/201603:27:40PM
To: WayneandStacyAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>
Subject: InternetNotes5July2016
Attachments: IN5July16.docx

InternetNotes5July2016
FSBraidonEkhoMoskvy(PiontkovskiyApalacecoupandatransitionalperiod:
Piontkovskiy/Khodorkovskiy/Illarionov)
Piontkovskiyonsilovikyshakeups

SoloveysaystheKremlindoesntcareforBortnikov

SergeyKanevonBelykh

PutinappointstwoZolotovNationalGuarddeputies

PutingivesRolduginanaward
Whoistoblame?(Fortheeconomiccrisis)

TheReserveFundwillrunoutin2017?

MoscowCityCourtreleasesDmitriyKamenshchikfromhousearrest
AmericancompanywillresumebusinessinCrimea
KlintsevichsaysSnowdencooperatedwithRussianintelligence

FSBraidonEkhoMoskvy(PiontkovskiyApalacecoupandatransitionalperiod:
Piontkovskiy/Khodorkovskiy/Illarionov)

http://www.newsru.com/russia/05jul2016/echo_print.html

AccordingtoEkhoChiefEditorAlekseyVenediktov,theraidtookplaceonTuesday.TheFSBwasafterEkhose-mail
correspondencewithpublicistAndreyPiontkovskiy.SomeEkhoemployeeshavebeencalledinforquestioningbytheFSBand
MVD.EditorVitaliyRuvinskiywasquestionedaboutNavalniysblogattheMVDandonPiontkovskiysattheFSB.Venediktov
himselfisonatriptoGenevaAcriminalcasehasbeenopenedagainstPiontkovskiyforpubliccallsforactionsthatwould
violatetheterritorialintegrityoftheRussianFederation.

InJanuary,IrinaYarovayaoftheDumaSecurityCommitteesentarequestforareviewtotheProsecutorsofficeconcerninga
Piontkovskiyarticle(ABombAbouttoGoOff)thatwaspostedontheEkhowebsite.Beforethat,asimilarrequesthadbeen
madebytheChairmanoftheChechenParliament,MagomedDaudov,whoclaimedthatPiontkovskiywascallingforChechnyato
beseparatedfromtheRussianFederation.PiontkovskiyleftRussiaon19FebruaryaftertheProsecutorsofficehaduncovered
whatitsaidwasevidenceofextremisminhiswriting.

TheBombarticleappearedon23January.ItcalledfortheseparationofChechnyafromRussia.Ekhosubsequentlydeletedthe
lasttwoparagraphsofthearticle.ThearticlesaidthatRussiahadlosttheChechenwarandwasnowpayingoffGrozny,financing
palacesandgoldenpistolsfortheChechenleaders,whileunemployedyouthswentofftofightfortheIslamists.Piontkovskiy
furtherclaimedthatsilovikywhoareunhappywithKadyrovmaystartathirdChechenwar.

Piontkovskiyslastcolumn,dated27June,wasaboutthearrestofKirovGovernorNikitaBelykh(Seethenotesfrom27,28,and
29June),whichPiontkovskiyattributedtoanunderthecarpetbattleamongKremlinclans.TheinternalKremlinjunta,
accordingtoPiontkovskiy,sensestheruinousstateoftheregimeandistryingtopreserveitswellbeingbypurgingpartner-
competitorsinpreparationforatransitionalperiod.

AndreyIllarionovre-postedthePiontkovskiyBombarticle:

http://aillarionov.livejournal.com/894698.html

Asfarasthesiloviky,Kadyrov,andtheNemtsovmurder,PiontkovskiytoldKasparov.ru(http://www.kasparov.ru/material.php?
id=576E441AD5B89)thatPutincannotremoveKadyrovthatwouldbeanacknowledgementthathispolicyintheCaucasus
hadcollapsed,bringingintoquestionthelegitimacyoftheregime(sinceitwasVVPsactionsonChechnyathathadhelpedbring
himtopower).Theregimeisenteringaninevitablephaseofpossiblepalacecoups(followingthedefeatoftheRussian
worldconceptinUkraine)andPutinmaythrowabonetothesilovikyintheformofsomeoneclosetoKadyrovwhowas
implicatedintheNemtsovmurderNavalniyandKhodorkovskiyhavejoinedintheattacksonKadyrovandhavesaidthatthe
regimewillchangenotviaelections,butthroughaseriesofpalacecoups(PiontkovskiycallsthesilovikyattacksonKadyrova
sluggishon-goingcoup).PiontkovskiygoesonaboutKhodorkovskiytellingSlon(http://slon.ru/posts/69549)thatajuntaof
7-9wouldemergeafterapalacecoup,theleadersofwhichwouldhavearmedstructuresinthestreetsComment:
KhodormaybealludingtoStrelkov,who,likeKhodorkovskiyandNavalniy,hasalsosaidthatheandhis
supportersarepreparingtostepinaftertheregimecollapses(See,forinstance,the7Junenotes),though
PiontkovskiyseemstothinkheisreferringtoBortnikovsandZolotovsandKadyrovsarmedformations.Moreon
KhodorkovskiyscommentsPiontkovskiysaysheagreeswithKhodorkovskiythatifthecoupdoesntatfirstcomeoff,the
silovikycouldturntoKhodororNavalniyforhelp.OneofthoseKhodorkovskiymentionedaspartofthetransitionalleadership
wasMedvedev.Comment:Khodorkovskiyhasbeensayingthisforawhile.IrecallBelkovskiy,whoIthinkworksfor
Khodorkovskiy,alsomentioningMedvedevasatransitionalfigure.

IllarionovsummedupKhodorkovskiysprogram,his(Khodors)regimechangescenario,andlistedthosehe(Illarionov)figured
mightbeontheroundtableoftransitionalleadersheadedbyMedvedevthatwasmentionedbyKhodorkovskiy:
http://www.kasparov.ru/material.php?id=576A2CFD907B7

PutinexitsMedvedevformsatransitionalgovernmentTheparliamentcouldbedissolvedSignificantsocialforceswouldthen
place7-9orasmanyasfifteenpeopleonaroundtableintheplaceofparliamentThesepeoplewillhavearmedsupporters
willingtobackthemupActingasaConstitutionalConvention,theroundtablewillapprovechangestotheRussianConstitution,
ineffectwritinganewoneThisnewconstitutionwillbeanagreementamongthearmedformationsTheroundtablewillbe
supportedbyaminority,buteven50,000wouldbeenoughtoturnthecountryonitsheadIf500,000turnoutonthestreets,itis
theywhowilldecidethequestionofvlastinRussiaThevastmajoritywillnotbetakingpartintheroundtableatthatmoment,
thepassivemajoritywonthavearoleTheiropinionswontmatteruntiltherearehonestelections.Untilthen,theroundtablewill
actasvlastMedvedevwillorganizenew,honestelectionsApartfromMedvedev,Kudrincouldbepartofthetransitional
leadership,ascouldKhodorkovskiyandNavalniyThetransitionalleadershipwontbeadictatorship,itsanotherformof
authority

Illarionovnameshisversionofafifteen-personroundtableleadership(assumingPutinmakesanexit):Khodorkovskiy,Medvedev,
Kudrin,Navalniy,SergeyIvanov,Shoygu,Bortnikov,Kolokoltsev,Bastrykin,Zolotov,Kadyrov,Sobyanin,Zyuganov,
Zhirinovskiy,Strelkov.

Piontkovskiyonsilovikyshakeups

PutinwillgiveupanyoneforthesakeofKadyrov

http://mobile.twitter.com/apiontkovsky/status/740587590483640321

AndreiPiontkovsky@apiontkovsky

.,,,,.-
,,.

9:53AM-8Jun2016
Comment:PiontkovskiyalsosaysthatYuriYakovlevisBortnikovsman.Seethe30Junenotes,whichmentioneda
Bortnikov-Yakovlevconnection.
SoloveysaystheKremlindoesntcareforBortnikov

Hisremarkisoneofthecommentsonthispost:http://m.vk.com/wall244477574_19214?post_add#post_add

SoloveywasreferringtoareportaboutanincidentinvolvingFSBAcademygraduatesracingtoMoscowinthreedozenMercedes
Gelandewagensandcausingallkindsofproblemsontheroads,withnumeroustrafficviolationstheFSBwasforcedtoopenan
officialinquiryabouttheincident.SoloveywassayingthattheKremlinwasalreadynothappywithBortnikov:
http://m.ria.ru/incidents/20160704/1458402678.html

NovayaGazetaDeputyDirector(andformerFSBofficer)ValeriyShiryayevontheincident(AcademyGraduateshave
DestroyedtheirReputationsEvenbeforeBeginningtheirService):http://www.novayagazeta.ru/columns/73696.html)Thereis
videoatthelink
SergeyKanevonBelykh

Backon10June,wereadthatOlegFeoktistovwouldtakeoveratFSBInternalSecurity(FSBUSB)afterhisbossthere,Sergey
Korolev,movedovertoheadFSBEconomicSecurity(FSBSEB),whileFSBUSBsIvanTkachevwouldtakeoveratFSB
SEBsDirectorateK.On14June,wesawanothermentionofFeoktistovtakingoveratFSBUSB.On28June,wesawa
reportthatFeoktistovhadheadedtheoperationtargetingBelykh.FeoktistovalsoplayedaroleintheGUEBiPKscandal.See,
forinstance,the14May2014notes.

NewTimesalsoreportsthatFeoktistovheadedtheoperationtargetingBelykh:http://www.newtimes.ru/articles/detail/113672/

AttheLubyanka,FeoktistovisknownasBigOlegorGeneralFikus.Hehasforalongtimeaimedtotakeoverasheadofhis
directorate.TheBelykharrestisanadditionaltrumpcardinthedeckforhimBelykh,whohasbeencriticizedbyPutin
previously(Seethe28Junenotes),wasreputedlybreathingeasierwhenPutin,speakingattheSt.PetersburgEconomicForum,
declaredthatKirovOblastwasamongthosewhichweredoingbetteronimprovingtheinvestmentclimateButBelykmayhave
beenmistakensourcessaythattheFSBhasbeeneyeingBelykhsince2012andPutinwaswellawareofthat.*Ontheday
Belykhwasarrested,PutinwasonatriptoChinaOneKanevsourcesaysthattheKirovregionalFSBhasbeenhostileto
BelykhforsometimeashehadcutthemofffromlucrativesourcesofincomeAnotherstorymakingtheroundsinKirovOblast
isthatNikitaBelykhwasnottheprimarytargetthatwouldbehisbrotherAleksandr,whoresignedfromtheProsecutorsoffice
(heheadedtheVolgaregionProsecutorsoffice)followinghisbrothersarrest(Seethe29Junenotes).Aleksandrwassaidtobe
slatedforapositionasoneofChaykasdeputiesAnothersourceisconvincedthattheSeptemberelectionshavenothingtodo
withBelykhsarresthehadalreadyreachedagreementwithUnitedRussiaabouttheelectionsandBelykhwasapartofthe
system

*ButNovayaGazetasIrekMurtazinclaimsthatPutinwasinformedaboutBelykhsdetentiononlyafterthefact.Putinwasin
BeijingandhadnotbeeninformedabouttheFSB/SKoperationalexperimenttargetingBelykh:
http://www.novayagazeta.ru/inquests/73675.html

PutinappointstwoZolotovNationalGuarddeputies

http://www.kommersant.ru/doc/3026102

ThetwoareLt.GeneralBorukayevandLt.GeneralSergeyYerygin.PutinalsoabolishedthepostofMVDInternalTroops
CommanderTheMVDministerwillfromnowonhaveseven,noteight,deputies

PutingivesRolduginanaward

http://meduza.io/news/2016/07/04/putin-nagradil-roldugina-ordenom-za-bezuprechnuyu-gosudarstvennuyu-sluzhbu

PutinawardedRolduginwiththeOrderofAleksandrNevskiyTheawardwasgivenbecauseofRolduginscontributionsto
humanitarianforeignpolicyactionsthathavestrengthenedfriendshipandpeacebetweenpeoples

Whoistoblame?(Fortheeconomiccrisis)

http://slon.ru/posts/70181
ThearticledrawsonresearchdonebytheHigherEconomicsSchoolandLevadapollsEverythirdfamilywithchildrendoesnt
havemoneyformedicineandhalfofthemareholdingbackonmeetingpaymentobligationsRealincomesarefallingand
unemploymentisrising,asarepricesSlonlooksattheresultsoftheLevadapollingforJuneonright/wrongdirectionand
approvalPutinremainspopularintheperiodfollowingtheCrimeacampaign/annexation,hisapprovalratinghasnotdropped
below80%.ThedeclineoftherubleandcorruptionscandalshavenothurtPutinthepublicseemstothinkPutinwantsto
improvethingsforthepeople,butisheldupbythebureaucracyandaweakteamMeanwhile,Medvedevsandthe
governmentsapprovalratingshavedeclined:Medvedevshasdeclinedfrom73%in2008to51%todayandtheright/wrong
directionnumberstrackwithMedvedevsapprovalratingsovertime

Herearetheright/wrongdirection,approval/trustratingsfromthe30Junenotes(Comment:Putinstrustratingisdown
significantlysincelastspring):

[http://www.levada.ru/2016/06/30/iyunskie-rejtingi-odobreniya-i-doveriya-6/
50%saythatthecountryismovingintherightdirection(49%lastmonth64%inJune2015)Wrongdirection33%(33%18%)Hardtosay
18%(18%14%)Putinsapprovalratingisat81%(80%lastmonth89%inJune,2015)Medvedevsapprovalratingisat51%(54%inMay),
whilethegovernmentsis48%(49%)Approvalofgovernorsisat51%(55%inMay)Dumaapprovalis41%(42%lastmonth)Name5-6
politiciansorpublicfiguresyoutrustPutinin1stplaceat51%(60%inMarch),followedbyShoygu(24%),Lavrov(17%),Medvedev(13%),
Zhirinovskiy(13%),andZyuganov(11%)]

TheReserveFundwillrunoutin2017?

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/russias-reserve-fund-to-run-empty-in-2017/574344.html

RussiawillemptyitsReserveFundnextyearandwillstartdippingintotheNationalWelfareFund,theReutersnewsagencyreported
Tuesday,citingdraftbudgetmaterials.

Amidbudgetdeficit,theFinanceMinistryisexpectedtoincreasedomesticborrowingfourorfivetimeswithinthreeyears.

TheministryisnotplanningsignificantcutstoRussiasexpensesinanticipationoftheStateDumaandpresidentialelections,Reuters
reported.Expenseswillbefixedat15.78trillionrubles($245.7billion)overthreeyears.

Russiawillfillholesinitsbudgetcausedbyaconsistentdeclineingrossdomesticproductusingfundsandloans.Bytheendof2016,
therewillbe980billionrubles($15.27billion)leftintheReserveFund,oneofitstwosovereignfunds.Thisfundwillbeemptiedatsome
pointin2017,accordingtoministrymaterials.

TheFinanceMinistrysaysthatRussiawouldspend783billionrubles($12.13billion)fromtheNationalWelfareFundin2017and883
billionrubles($13.68billion)in2018,Reutersreported.

TheNationalWelfareFund,whichheld$73billionatthestartofJuly,wasformedin2008whentheStabilizationFundwassplitintothe
ReserveFundandtheNationalWelfareFund.Aboutone-thirdoftheNationalWelfareFundisinvestedinRussianstatedevelopment
bankVneshekonombank(VEB)andotherprojects.

MoscowCityCourtreleasesDmitriyKamenshchikfromhousearrest

Thereleaseorderwasmadeon1JulySeethe19Mayand3Junenotes.

http://crimerussia.com/en/gromkie-dela/the-moscow-city-court-discharged-dmitry-kamenshchik/

ThePresidiumoftheMoscowCityCourtallowedaremedialactionorderbythefirstdeputyprosecutor-generalVladimir
Malinovsky,whodemandedthereleaseoftheownerofDomodedovoairportDmitryKamenshchikfromhousearrest.
AccordingtoRBK,hecanremoveanelectronicanklebraceletassoonastheFederalPenitentiaryServiceofRussia
receivesallthenecessarydocuments.

TheProsecutorGeneral'sOfficehasseveraltimesdemandedcriminalchargesagainsttopmanagersoftheairportbe
droppedHowever,theInvestigativeCommitteeoftheRussianFederationoverturnedtheremedialactionorderofthe
procuracyandcontinuedtheinvestigation

AmericancompanywillresumebusinessinCrimea

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/business/article/first-american-company-to-return-to-crimea-since-russia-
sanctions/574325.html

TheCourseraonlineeducationalservicehasreceivedpermissionfromtheU.S.governmenttooperateinCrimea,theKommersant
newspaperreportedonTuesday.

Courseratheworld'slargestonlinelearningplatformhasbeenunavailabletoresidentsoftheannexedpeninsulasinceFeb.1,
2015inconnectionwithsanctionsplacedonRussiabytheU.S.

Manymembersoftheeducationalcommunitywereopposedtothis,sayingthateducationshouldbeavailabletopeoplearoundthe
world.

IdonotknowasingleAmericanprofessorwhosupportedtheserestrictions[onaccessingCoursera]inCrimea,saidIsaacFrumin
fromtheHigherSchoolofEconomics,Kommersantreported.

InesRoman,aspokespersonforCoursera,statedinJunethattheU.S.OfficeofForeignAssetsControlgavethewebsiteaspecial
licensetoworkinCrimea.

Wethinkitisveryimportantthattheopportunitytoreceiveabettereducationisavailabletoeveryone,wherevertheylive,saidthe
spokesperson.

KlintsevichsaysSnowdencooperatedwithRussianintelligence

http://20committee.com/2016/07/02/the-kremlin-admits-snowden-is-a-russian-agent/

Now,theKremlinhassettledtheissueonceandforallbystatingthatEdwardSnowdenisindeedtheirman.Inaremarkableinterviewthisweek,
FranzKlintsevich,aseniorRussiansecurityofficial,explainedthecasematter-of-factly:Letsbefrank.Snowdendidshareintelligence.Thisis
whatsecurityservicesdo.Iftheresapossibilitytogetinformation,theywillgetit.

Withthis,KlintsevichsimplysaidwhatallintelligenceprofessionalsalreadyknewthatSnowdenisacollaboratorwiththeFSB.Thathereallyhad
nochoiceinthematteroncehesetfootinRussiadoesnotchangethefacts.

Klintsevichisnoidlespeculator.HeisasenatorwhohasservedintheStateDumafornearlyadecade.Moreimportantly,heisthedeputychairof
thesenatesdefenseandsecuritycommittee,whichoverseesthespecialservices.The59-year-oldKlintsevichthushasaccesstomanystate
secretsforinstanceregardingtheSnowdencase.

HeisalsoaretiredRussianarmycolonel,havingserved22yearsintheeliteAirborneForces(VDV).KlintsevichsawactioninAfghanistaninthe
1980swiththeVDVand,basedonacarefulreadingofhisbiography,appearstohaveservedwithGRU,thatismilitaryintelligence(hisworkin
specialpropagandainAfghanistanandhis1991graduationfromtheLeninMilitary-PoliticalAcademyareindicationsofhisGRUaffiliation).

Klintsevichisnotawell-knownfigureoutsideRussiaheappearedintheWesternpressbrieflyin2012withhisshort-livedideatobuyHitlers
birthhouseinBraunau,inordertodestroyitbutheisawell-connectedmemberoftheKremlinsrulingelite.Givenhissenatecommitteeposition
andhisGRUpast,thereisnodoubtthatKlintsevichisconsiderednash(ours)byRussiasspecialservices.

HisstatementoutingSnowdensrelationshipwiththeKremlinthereforecannotbeanaccidentoraslipofthetongue.Forwhateverreason,Putin
hasdecidedtooutSnowdenasthecollaboratorthatheactuallyisandhasbeenforthreeyearsalready.

OnereasonforthismaybeSnowdensrecenttepidcriticismviaTwitterofRussiasdraconiannewlawsondomesticsurveillancewhichvastly
exceedanyoftheactivitiesoftheWesterndemocraciesthatSnowdenhassostronglycriticizedfromhisFSBhideaway.Indeed,hishostsfinally
allowingtheirAmericancollaboratortotweetnegativelyaboutRussiamanyhadnotedSnowdenssilenceonFSBrepressionandworsemaybe
asignthatthedefectorhasoutlivedhisusefulness.

Intruth,SnowdenwasneverallthatwellinformedaboutAmericanintelligence.Contrarytothemythsthatheandhismouthpieceshave
propagated,hewasnomorethananITsystemsadministrator.Snowdenwasneveranysortofbonafidespy.Therearenoindicationshereally
understandsmostofwhathestolefromNSA.
TheFSBthereforemilkedSnowdenofanyvaluableinformationratherquickly.Helikelyhadlittlelighttoshedonthemillion-plussecretfileshe
stole.Instead,hisvaluetoMoscowhasbeenasakeyplayerinKremlinpropagandadesignedtodiscredittheWesternintelligencealliance.

Inthatrole,SnowdenhasdoneagreatdealofdamagetotheWest.ButhewasneveramoleforMoscowinsideNSA.Inreality,theSnowden
OperationisprobablyacovertodeflectattentionfromtheoneormoreactualRussianmoleswhohavebeenlurkinginsideNSAforyears,
undetected.

BasedonthecasesofpreviousWesternintelligencedefectorstoMoscow,EdwardSnowdenfacesanunhappyfuture.Whateverhappenstohimis
uptohishosts,whocontrolallaspectsofanydefectorslife.TherenolongercanbeanyhonestdebateabouthisrelationshipwiththeKremlin,
whichhassettledthematteronceandforall.PutinandhisspecialservicesconsiderSnowdentobenashthereisnoquestionaboutthatnow.

(ThisarticleoriginallyappearedinBILDinGerman,youcanreadthathere.)

From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 07/05/201609:56:13AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:[JULY4thItemsofInterest/HAPPY4th]TheU.S.cantignoreRussia,oritsincreasinglyhorrendousbehaviorAInterestingTakeontheEPCouncilandItsresult
Subject:
(fromtheCAUOCCommunity)Fwd:Russia'sUnlikelyAdvocate:CaliforniaRepublican-...

From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Monday,July04,20161:12PM
Subject:Fwd:[JULY4thItemsofInterest/HAPPY4th]TheU.S.cantignoreRussia,oritsincreasinglyhorrendousbehaviorAInterestingTakeontheEP
CouncilandItsresult(fromtheCAUOCCommunity)Fwd:Russia'sUnlikelyAdvocate:CaliforniaRepublican-...

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Date:Mon,Jul4,2016at4:10PM
Subject:[JULY4thItemsofInterest/HAPPY4th]TheU.S.cantignoreRussia,oritsincreasinglyhorrendousbehaviorAInterestingTakeonthe
EPCouncilandItsresult(fromtheCAUOCCommunity)Fwd:Russia'sUnlikelyAdvocate:CaliforniaRepublican-ABCNewsSomeSound
AdvicefromPBtoAnt/FaboutaPL-UAconflictthatRUseemstobestirring
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:hunter@
Date:Mon,Jul4,2016at8:01AM
Subject:TheU.S.cantignoreRussia,oritsincreasinglyhorrendousbehavior[ED:Asalways,atimelypiecefromJoshR...]
To:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu

TheU.S.cantignoreRussia,oritsincreasinglyhorrendous
behavior
ByJoshRogin

Opinions

July3at7:18PM

JoshRoginisaWashingtonPostGlobalOpinionscolumnist.

TheU.S.-Russiarelationshipistoobigtofail,butitsfailing.

TheObamaadministrationcameintoofficewithabigideaaboutthisrelationship:thatthesetwoworldpowersmustworktogetheronareasof
mutualinteresteveniftheystillworkedagainsteachotherwheretheirinterestsdiverged.Theconceptwassound,butasrelationshavedeteriorated
andRussiahastakenamoreantagonisticstance,theUnitedStateshasfailedtoadapt.

LastweeksrevelationthattheadministrationisproposingincreasedmilitarycooperationwithRussiainSyria,inexchangeforRussianagreementto
abidebythecease-fireithadalreadyagreedto,wasastarkexampleofhowtheadministrationstheoryabouthowtoworkwithRussiaisbeing
misappliedontheground.WashingtonisofferingMoscowbothareprievefromthepoliticalandmilitaryisolationitimposedaftertheinvasionof
UkraineandarewardfortakingunilateralmilitaryactiondesignedtoundermineU.S.policyinSyria.

TheWhiteHouseandtheStateDepartmentbelievethattheonlywaytomakeprogressinSyriaistoworkwithMoscow,evenifthatmeanssetting
theisolationefforttooneside.Thatmakessomesense,butonlyifRussiaactuallyhonorsitsagreementsinSyriaandmakesprogresstoward
resolvingtheUkrainecrisis.
Butneitherofthesethingsishappening.Ukrainesrecentlydepartedprimeminister,ArseniyYatsenyuk,toldmelastweekthatwhileRussiahas
successfullydistractedtheworldfromtheUkrainecrisis,theRussianmilitarycontinuesamedium-boilmilitarycampaigninviolationoftheMinsk
agreement.

EverysingledaytheykillUkrainiansoldiers,everysingledaythedeathtollisrising,everysingledaywevegotciviliancasualties.Thereisnocease-
fireontheground,hesaid.

ToYatsenyuk,RussianPresidentVladimirPutinsstrategyisclear.RussiawillpretendtoworkwithWesternpowersandevenstrikedealswhenthe
dealsaresweetenough.Butbyselectivelyviolatingtheagreementswhilemanipulatingothergovernmentsandthemedia,Putinwillcontinuetomake
steadyprogresstowardhisanti-Western,anti-democraticobjectives.ForYatsenyuk,theressimplynowaytoworkconstructivelywiththecurrent
Kremlin.

IdontbelievethatyoucanagreeonanythingsubstantialwiththeRussianFederationbecausetheU.S.isanenemytotheRussianFederationin
theirview,hesaid.Theycanhavetalks,theycanhavedebates,theycanevenagreeonsomenon-existentialissues.Butthereisanexistential
difference.Thesearejusttwodifferentworlds.

TheUnitedStatescannotaffordtowriteofftheU.S.-Russiarelationship.Thereistruthtotheargumentthattheworldsmostpressingproblems,
includingIslamicextremism,cannotbesolvedwithoutsomeRussianinvolvement.ButWashingtoncannotignoreRussiasincreasinglyhorrendous
behavior.RussiasdangerousmilitarymaneuversnearU.S.shipsarenowregularoccurrences.RussianharassmentandintimidationofU.S.
diplomatsacrossEuropeisatanall-timehigh.Russiangovernmentcyberespionageandpropagandacampaignshaverunamok.

Thefactis,theyareengagedinanewglobalColdWaragainsttheU.S.,saidSamuelCharap,seniorfellowattheInternationalInstitutefor
StrategicStudies.Theresabsolutelynoquestionaboutthat.WehavethisfesteringwoundontherelationshipthatnobodyontheU.S.sideis
spendingmuchtimetryingtofix.

TheUnitedStateshascomplicatedrelationshipswithlotsofproblematiccountries.China,forexample,isinternallyrepressiveandexternally
aggressive,buttheresnothoughtofcuttingoffrelationswithBeijing.Similarly,thepolicyofisolatingRussiaaspunishmentforitsinvasionofUkraine
haslimits.Russiawasdeterminednottocavetosanctions,andiftherecentvoteintheFrenchsenateisanyindication,thesanctionsregimewillnot
lastforever.

Putinisaverysmart,sophisticatedpoliticalanimal,saidYatsenyuk.Hecanwaitandwaitforaquitelongandextensiveperiodoftime.Heknows
howtheWesternpowersact.

TheUnitedStatesmustestablishanewrelationshipwithRussiathatisintellectuallyhonestaboutMoscowsactionsandintentionswhilepreserving
whatevercooperationispossible.ThatmaymeanfindinganendgametotheUkrainesanctionsbeforetheycrumbleundertheirownweight.Butit
alsomeanspushingbackmoreagainstRussianprovocationsandraisingthecostforPutinwhenheactsoutonotherfronts.

DefenseSecretaryAshtonB.Carter,whointernallyopposedPresidentObamasnewSyriaproposal,saidlastweekthatifRussiawoulddothe
rightthinginSyriathatsanimportantconditionasinallcaseswithRussia,werewillingtoworkwiththem.

TheU.S.governmentneedstocomeupwithacredibleanswertothecorrespondingquestion:WhatisitwillingtodoifRussiacontinuestodothe
wrongthings?

Readmoreaboutthistopic:

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:OlegLitwinow<olitwin45@gmail.com>
Date:Mon,Jul4,2016at2:47AM
Subject:Re:ThankstoRussia,UkrainiansSwellRanksofKyivPatriarchate[ED:PartofaLargerDiscussionGoingonintheCA
UOCCommunity]
To:valroslin<valroslin@gmail.com>
Cc:MykolaJemetz<mjemetz@yahoo.ca>,24MORE

Val,etal.,

Wemustadmitthatallnon-imperialistOrthodoxshouldbehappythatthisSoborwassuchaspectacularRussianpropagandafailureduetothenon-
attendanceoftheRussianfactionandcool-handBart'srefusaltobudge.SomedelegatestotheSobormayhavebeenshort-changed(Serbs)but
Orthodoxywastherealwinner.TheROCraccoon-dogsyelped,butthecaravanmovedon.WecanonlyhopethatBartwillresisthistemptationto
negotiateforbetterdealsfromMoscowinexchangeforignoringtheattemptedkickinthefacehealmostgotfromPutin(hadhecancelledthe
Sobor).

Putin'sinvasiontransformedUkraine.Putin'sthreatsrejuvenatedNATO.Putin'sorderofnon-attendanceexposedanddemonstratedthefascist
natureoftheROC(farfromecumenical!)anditsimperialistRusskyMirphilosophy.

Therecanbenopeacefulco-existencewithPutin'schurch.TheROCmustbekickedoutorsplitoffmainstreamOrthodoxybecauseofitsinability
toexcludeitselffromcolludingwiththeforeignpolicyofMoscow,renderingitincompatiblewithanymoralethicbutthedevil's.LikePutin,the
ROCbelievesthatpromisesaremadetobebroken.TheROCbelievesthattherecanbenoecumenismandnocooperationwithinOrthodoxyuntil
aNaziMoscowbecomestheThirdRomeandimposesaRusskiMironallOrthodox.ThiswasthelessonthatwastaughtattheSobor.

TheSoborconfigurationandfailedattemptatdisruptiondemonstratedthattheROCandtherestofOrthodoxysubscribetomutuallyexclusive
systemsofvalue.SeeJuly3,2016Windowoneurasia"LudditesoftheWorldComingTogethertoSavePutin"byS.Ilchenko.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:MiraKyzyk<mirakyzyk@gmail.com>
Date:Mon,Jul4,2016at9:49AM
Subject:Russia'sUnlikelyAdvocate:CaliforniaRepublican-ABCNews
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

Russia'sUnlikelyAdvocate:CaliforniaRepublican-ABCNews

'SurferRepublican'Russia'sUnlikelyAdvocatein
Congress
BYMARIADANILOVA,ASSOCIATEDPRESS

WhenseveralmembersofCongressaccusedVladimirPutin'sRussiaofhumanrightsabusesandaggression
towarditsneighbors,aveteranCaliforniacongressmanstoodvirtuallyaloneinurgingamorecautionarystance.

For69-year-oldRep.DanaRohrabacher,aself-described"surferRepublican,"thiswasn'tatotallyunexpectedposition:he'slong
beenvirtuallythelonepro-RussianvoiceonCapitolHill.

"Rightfromthebeginningwe'vehadthisincrediblehostility,"Rohrabacher,whohasdefendedPresidentVladimirPutinandurgeda
dialoguewiththeKremlin,lamentedatarecentcongressionalhearing.HeurgedbothRussiaandtheUnitedStatesatthetimeto
"takeadeepbreathandastepback."

Thispastspring,Rohrabacher'spositiondrewsupportfromDonaldTrump,thepresumptiveRepublicanpresidentialnominee,who
advocatesgivingrelationswithMoscowanotherchance."Commonsensesaysthiscycleofhostilitymustend,"Trumpsaidina
speechinApril.

AformerspeechwriterforPresidentRonaldReagan,the14-termRohrabachertakesprideinhavingworkedtoweaken"ourmajor
globalenemyatthattime,theSovietUnion."AlargephotoinhisofficeshowshiminthehillsofAfghanistaninthe1980s,where,he
toldTheAssociatedPressinaninterview,helaunchedrocketsatSovietpositionsasavolunteerfighter.

Rohrabacher'sviewchangedwhentheSovietUnioncollapsedin1991,andRussiaemergedasadifferentcountry.Althoughhe
acknowledgesthatoppositionleadersfacerepressioninRussia,healsosaysthecountryallowsreligiousfreedomandisgenerally
moreopenthanitspredecessor.

Inthemid-1990s,RohrabachergotatasteofRussianpolitics,hesays,whenhewelcomedadelegationofyoungRussianpolitical
leaders,whichincludedPutin,whothenworkedforthemayorofSt.Petersburg.Afterafriendlyfootballmatch,thegroupwenttoa
nearbypubandstartedarguingoverwhethertheSovietUnionlosttheColdWar.Thedebateturnedintoanarm-wrestlingmatch
betweenPutinandRohrabacher,whichPutinwon.

"IendedupwithPutin,andhebeatmejustlikethat,"Rohrabachersaid,snappinghisfingers.

NowRohrabachersayshebelievespolicymakersinWashingtonmisunderstandRussiaandtreatitunfairly.Insteadoffightinganother
ColdWar,RussiaandtheUnitedStatesshouldfocusondefeatingIslamicextremism."Weshouldnotbeinahostilerelationshipit's
nottothebenefitoftheirpeopleorourpeopletodothis,"RohrabachertoldTheAP.

JohnE.Herbst,aformerU.S.ambassadortoUkrainedisagrees,citingRussia'swarwithGeorgia,itsannexationofCrimeaandits
involvementintheseparatistconflictineasternUkraine.

"HehasbeenaconsistentvoiceinCongressforweakpoliciestowardsanaggressiveKremlin,"HerbstsaidofRohrabacher."Ihave
noreasontoquestionhisintegrityIhavelotsofreasontoquestionhisjudgment."

Thelawmaker'scritics,however,areunconvincedofhisintentions,sayingthatRohrabacherisn'tjustadvocatingforworldpeacebut
isinsteadpushinganagendathatbenefitstheRussiangovernment.

AmajorsorepointinU.S.-Russianrelationsisa2012lawimposingtravelbansandassetfreezeson39Russianofficialsdeemed
implicatedinthejailhousedeathofRussianwhistleblowerSergeiMagnitsky.MagnitskywasarrestedsoonafterheaccusedRussian
officialsofstealingsome$230millionofgovernmentmoneyinataxfraudschemetheRussianpresidentialcouncilonhumanrights
concludedhewasbeatenanddeniedmedicaltreatmentinjail.

MagnitskyworkedforBritish-AmericanfinancierWilliamBrowder,whoranRussia'slargestinvestmentfundbeforebeingexpelled
fromthecountryin2005.Browder,wholobbiedforthelawthatbecameknownastheMagnitskyAct,hastracedthemissingmoney
toaccountslinkedtoRussianofficialsinvariouscountriesandhassoughttofreezetheassets.ANewYorkcourtiscurrently
examiningthecaseofaRussian-ownedholdingcompanycalledPrevezon,whose$14millionworthofassetshavebeenfrozenbythe
U.S.governmentinconnectionwiththefraud.

TheMagnitskyActinfuriatedofficialsinMoscow,manyofwhomliketotravel,buypropertyandeducatetheirchildrenintheWest.
RussiaretaliatedbybanningAmericanfamiliesfromadoptingRussianorphans.

Thisspring,RohrabachermetwithRussianofficialswhileonatriptoMoscowandthensatdownwithaPrevezonrepresentativein
Washington.

InMay,RohrabachertriedunsuccessfullytopersuadetheHouseForeignAffairsCommitteetodropMagnitskyfromthenameofa
billextendingsanctionstohumanrightsabusersfromothernations.Duringthevote,hesuggestedthatBrowdermighthavebeen
involvedinthetaxfraudhimself."Iwouldliketosaythatit'spossible...butwedon'tknowenough,"hesaid.

BrowderaccusedRohrabacherofspreadingdisinformation.Magnitsky'sabuseinjailiswell-documentedtheJustice
DepartmentnamedBrowder'scompany"avictim,notaperpetrator"ofthefraud,accordingtocourtfilings.

"HeisknowinglyputtingoutanarrativeontheMagnitskycasewhichiscontradictedbyevidencefromRussiaandalargeamountof
analysisbyindependentbodies,includingtheU.S.government,"BrowdertoldtheAPofRohrabacher.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:PeterBorisow<ap.borisow@comcast.net>
Date:Mon,Jul4,2016at1:29PM
Subject:Re:Polish"patriots"(PrzemyskieBractwo)vsUkrainian"nazi"(OtVinta)[ED:SomeSoundAdviceFromPB
toAnt/F]
To:AntonivFamily<antoniv_family@msn.com>
Cc:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

AlthoughI'moffendedbytheseactionsbytheso-calledPolishPatriots,IviewthemasjustanotherbitofPutin's
overalleffortstodestabilizeUkrainianrelationswithanyandallitsfriendsandneighbors.It'stheoldKGBpracticeof
"pouringwaterintoeventhesmallestcracksinwinter".I'mcertainthesefolks,nomatterhowtheypresent
themselves,andnomatterwhattheiroriginalorigins,arenowfullyfunded,supportedandmanipulatedbyPutinfor
thepurposeofantagonizingPolishUkrainianrelationsandbreakingtheemergingandessentialalliancebetween
UkraineandPoland.WeneedtoformafrontlinealliancewithPolandagainstRussia.Putinknowsthis.Heistrying
tosowenmitywhereverhecantodisruptit.

We'renotgoingtomakeBanderaaheroinPoland,nomatterwhatwedo.NorcanPolandjustifyitsearlierrulein
WesternUkraine.Weneedtomoveon.Wecannotgetboggeddowninthisdebatefortheonlypossiblewinneris
Russia.Myfeelingisthatafteradifficulthistory,sincetheendofWWII,forthelastthreequartersofacentury,both
UkraineandPolandhavebeenandcontinuetobethreatenedmenacedandoccupiedbyRussiawhichisquite
happytoconsumethemoneatatime.Consumingthemtogether,intheformofarealmilitaryalliance,especiallyif
theyarejoinedbytheBalticStates,isnotlikelytohappenandPutinknowsthis.

AlthoughPolandisamemberofNATO,therearen'tenoughNATOtroopsorheavyequipmentinNATOtostopafull
Russianthrust,especiallyifitcomesfrombothRussiaandtheoccupiedterritoryofKaliningrad.Polandmustbynow
understandthatNATOisnotgoingtogonuclearagainstRussiatosavePoland.Anon-nuclearalliancewithUkraine
andtheBalticStatesisinrealityamorecredibledefenseagainstRussia.

ThedebateaboutBanderaisPutin'sdiversion.Wemustnotgetboggeddowninit.Weneedtomoveon,focusing
ontherealthreat--Russia.

OnJul3,2016,at10:01PM,AntonivFamilywrote:

RE:UkrainianmusicbandOtVintabannedfromPolandduetolocalultrasprotests

Polish"patriots"(PrzemyskieBractwo)vsUkrainian"nazi"(OtVinta)

PhotoofMr.Zhuravel'nexttoBanderamemorialpostedbyPrzemyskieBractwoasproofofhis
extremism:
http://pl-
pl.facebook.com/PrzemyskieBractwo/photos/a.212354862198471.35098.205452122888745/822499084517376/?
type=3

<13510918_822499084517376_8127915420853845268_n.jpg>

someother"disturbing"drawingsofMr.Zhuravel'postedonFB
http://pl-
pl.facebook.com/PrzemyskieBractwo/photos/pb.205452122888745.-2207520000.1467605156./821474824619802/?
type=3

From: KyleWilson<krwilson66@icloud.com>
Senttime: 07/01/201605:19:20PM
To: BobOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: Fwd:EncouragingfeedbackonLowygig.

SentfrommyiPad

Beginforwardedmessage:

From:StephenFortescue<s.fortescue@unsw.edu.au>
Date:30June201610:27:36amAEST
To:KyleWilson<krwilson66@icloud.com>
Cc:AnthonyBubalo<ABubalo@lowyinstitute.org>,BoboLo<bobolo_uk@yahoo.co.uk>
Subject:Re:EncouragingfeedbackonLowygig.

Ioncehadtoreadaloudanexampaper-toRobertDessaix-becausehecouldn'treadmyhandwriting.Itwasan
unpleasantexperience,althoughgiventhatthefinalmarkwasOK,presumablymoreformethanhim.I'msurethe
sameappliestoyourpodcast,soenoughoftheself-flagellation.ThefeedbackIgot,regardingbothofus,was
embarrassinglylaudatory.AndI'veneveransweredanythingthatIhaven'tthoughtafterwardswhatIshouldhave
said.
AndjudgingfromwhattheTASScorrespondentsaidtomeafterwards,hewon'tbetooharshonyou-althoughwho
knows.
Astohowyoushouldhaveansweredthegovernor,soundsOKtome.IlikedtheimplicationinwhatTitovsaid
aboutBrexit,thatin10yearstimetheEurasianUnionwillincludeEurope,linedupagainsttheAnglo-Saxons.
Orwell's1984indeed.
Stephen

SentfrommyiPad

On30Jun2016,at07:48,KyleWilson<krwilson66@icloud.com>wrote:

Afterafriendtoldmehe'dlistenedtothepodcastofoursessionIdidtoo.Unwise--likerevisitingan
examinwhichyouthinkyou'vedonealright,onlytofind...

Stephensoundsconsidered,factualandcredible.TomyhorrorIfindthatIsoundlikeaRussianshock
jockonNTV,bombasticandgrandiloquent--'look,iwilltellyou(fools)howitis.'

Amostunedifyingexperience,shan'tdoitagain.

Anyway:itseemstomenowthattheproblemwiththeformatoftheinformalconversationisthatit
requirespeoplewhocanthinktheirfeetdeftly,orwho,likeFortescue,havethepresenceofmindtosay
'goodquestion,Idon'tknowtheanswer,butherearemythoughtsforwhatthey'reworth.'

ThepodcastrevealsthatIfailedsignallytoanswerthebestofthequestions,perhapsitwasfromthe
NSWGovernor,aboutwhatPutinwants,ultimately.TheanswerIshouldhavegivenisthatheisa
warriorandhewantstowin.HavinglosttheColdWar--apersonalhumiliationforaKGBofficer--he
isdeterminedtowintheColdPeace.Andwinitonhisterms.Hewantsanendtosanctions--because
theyhurtforMH17tobeforgottenforthenewbordershehasredrawnbyforcetobeacceptedand
recognisedTrumptobepresident(ontheassumptionthattheworsethebetter)NATOtobe
abolishedtheEUtocollapsetheUStobegonefromEurope,defeatedandhumiliatedanda
reconstitutedRussianempire,calleda'sphereofinfluence'and/orthe'EurasianUnion',Russia'sultimate
answerto'TheWest'.

Inotherwords,hewantsanewworldorder,asdesignedbyhim,whichrightstoinjusticesofhistory.
Justnowhepresumablyfeelsthatheisdoingprettywell,withalotofhelpfromwhathelikestocall,
mordantly,Russia's'partners'.

Ialsofailedtoqualifytheword'reasonable',applyingto'expectations',withthecrucial'whatPutin
wouldseeasreasonable'.ItrustthatthatslippleasedtheTASScorrespondent.

Nothinglikeawellformulatedquestiontoforceonetorecogniseanideationaldog'sbreakfast.As
Bulgakovsaiditsowell,"theproblem,gentlemen,isnottheplumbing:theproblemiswhat'sinpeople's
heads."Well,somepeople'sheads.LiketheBritswhovotedforBrexit.

SoIamdraftingaproperanswertothatquestionandwillinflictitonyouseassoonasIcan.I'll
importunethelong-sufferingSFtocommentonitandthen,ifyouwishAnthony,youcouldsendittothe
Governor.

IfyouweretoputitonyourblogSFmightnotgethisnextvisa--taintedbyassociation.

Kyle

SentfrommyiPad

On29Jun2016,at08:05,KyleWilson<krwilson66@icloud.com>wrote:

IfFortescuebuysanewsweater.

SentfrommyiPad

On29Jun2016,at7:14am,AnthonyBubalo
<ABubalo@lowyinstitute.org>wrote:

Weshouldtour...

SentfrommyiPhone

On29Jun2016,at7:02AM,KyleWilson
<krwilson66@icloud.com>wrote:

Fromafriendwhoattended.

SentfrommyiPad

Beginforwardedmessage:

From:John
<jmandryk@bigpond.net.au>
Date:28June20165:08:34pm
AEST
To:KyleWilson
<krwilson66@icloud.com>
Subject:Re:Reallyexcellent
YesmuchbetterthanOK.Alsomy
impressionwasitwasverywell
receivedbythe(motley)audience.
Andverywellattendedtoboot!

From:KyleWilson
Sent:Tuesday,28June,20164:57PM
To:JohnMandryk
Subject:Re:Reallyexcellent

ThanksComrade.I'mrelievedthatit
wentOKandmuchappreciatedyour
makingtheefforttocome.

SentfrommyiPhone

On28Jun2016,at2:08PM,John
Mandryk<jmandryk@bigpond.net.au>
wrote:

Welldone
From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 07/05/201609:56:13AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:[JULY4thItemsofInterest/HAPPY4th]TheU.S.cantignoreRussia,oritsincreasinglyhorrendousbehaviorAInterestingTakeontheEPCouncilandItsresult
Subject:
(fromtheCAUOCCommunity)Fwd:Russia'sUnlikelyAdvocate:CaliforniaRepublican-...

From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Monday,July04,20161:12PM
Subject:Fwd:[JULY4thItemsofInterest/HAPPY4th]TheU.S.cantignoreRussia,oritsincreasinglyhorrendousbehaviorAInterestingTakeontheEP
CouncilandItsresult(fromtheCAUOCCommunity)Fwd:Russia'sUnlikelyAdvocate:CaliforniaRepublican-...

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Date:Mon,Jul4,2016at4:10PM
Subject:[JULY4thItemsofInterest/HAPPY4th]TheU.S.cantignoreRussia,oritsincreasinglyhorrendousbehaviorAInterestingTakeonthe
EPCouncilandItsresult(fromtheCAUOCCommunity)Fwd:Russia'sUnlikelyAdvocate:CaliforniaRepublican-ABCNewsSomeSound
AdvicefromPBtoAnt/FaboutaPL-UAconflictthatRUseemstobestirring
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:hunter@
Date:Mon,Jul4,2016at8:01AM
Subject:TheU.S.cantignoreRussia,oritsincreasinglyhorrendousbehavior[ED:Asalways,atimelypiecefromJoshR...]
To:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu

TheU.S.cantignoreRussia,oritsincreasinglyhorrendous
behavior
ByJoshRogin

Opinions

July3at7:18PM

JoshRoginisaWashingtonPostGlobalOpinionscolumnist.

TheU.S.-Russiarelationshipistoobigtofail,butitsfailing.

TheObamaadministrationcameintoofficewithabigideaaboutthisrelationship:thatthesetwoworldpowersmustworktogetheronareasof
mutualinteresteveniftheystillworkedagainsteachotherwheretheirinterestsdiverged.Theconceptwassound,butasrelationshavedeteriorated
andRussiahastakenamoreantagonisticstance,theUnitedStateshasfailedtoadapt.

LastweeksrevelationthattheadministrationisproposingincreasedmilitarycooperationwithRussiainSyria,inexchangeforRussianagreementto
abidebythecease-fireithadalreadyagreedto,wasastarkexampleofhowtheadministrationstheoryabouthowtoworkwithRussiaisbeing
misappliedontheground.WashingtonisofferingMoscowbothareprievefromthepoliticalandmilitaryisolationitimposedaftertheinvasionof
UkraineandarewardfortakingunilateralmilitaryactiondesignedtoundermineU.S.policyinSyria.

TheWhiteHouseandtheStateDepartmentbelievethattheonlywaytomakeprogressinSyriaistoworkwithMoscow,evenifthatmeanssetting
theisolationefforttooneside.Thatmakessomesense,butonlyifRussiaactuallyhonorsitsagreementsinSyriaandmakesprogresstoward
resolvingtheUkrainecrisis.
Butneitherofthesethingsishappening.Ukrainesrecentlydepartedprimeminister,ArseniyYatsenyuk,toldmelastweekthatwhileRussiahas
successfullydistractedtheworldfromtheUkrainecrisis,theRussianmilitarycontinuesamedium-boilmilitarycampaigninviolationoftheMinsk
agreement.

EverysingledaytheykillUkrainiansoldiers,everysingledaythedeathtollisrising,everysingledaywevegotciviliancasualties.Thereisnocease-
fireontheground,hesaid.

ToYatsenyuk,RussianPresidentVladimirPutinsstrategyisclear.RussiawillpretendtoworkwithWesternpowersandevenstrikedealswhenthe
dealsaresweetenough.Butbyselectivelyviolatingtheagreementswhilemanipulatingothergovernmentsandthemedia,Putinwillcontinuetomake
steadyprogresstowardhisanti-Western,anti-democraticobjectives.ForYatsenyuk,theressimplynowaytoworkconstructivelywiththecurrent
Kremlin.

IdontbelievethatyoucanagreeonanythingsubstantialwiththeRussianFederationbecausetheU.S.isanenemytotheRussianFederationin
theirview,hesaid.Theycanhavetalks,theycanhavedebates,theycanevenagreeonsomenon-existentialissues.Butthereisanexistential
difference.Thesearejusttwodifferentworlds.

TheUnitedStatescannotaffordtowriteofftheU.S.-Russiarelationship.Thereistruthtotheargumentthattheworldsmostpressingproblems,
includingIslamicextremism,cannotbesolvedwithoutsomeRussianinvolvement.ButWashingtoncannotignoreRussiasincreasinglyhorrendous
behavior.RussiasdangerousmilitarymaneuversnearU.S.shipsarenowregularoccurrences.RussianharassmentandintimidationofU.S.
diplomatsacrossEuropeisatanall-timehigh.Russiangovernmentcyberespionageandpropagandacampaignshaverunamok.

Thefactis,theyareengagedinanewglobalColdWaragainsttheU.S.,saidSamuelCharap,seniorfellowattheInternationalInstitutefor
StrategicStudies.Theresabsolutelynoquestionaboutthat.WehavethisfesteringwoundontherelationshipthatnobodyontheU.S.sideis
spendingmuchtimetryingtofix.

TheUnitedStateshascomplicatedrelationshipswithlotsofproblematiccountries.China,forexample,isinternallyrepressiveandexternally
aggressive,buttheresnothoughtofcuttingoffrelationswithBeijing.Similarly,thepolicyofisolatingRussiaaspunishmentforitsinvasionofUkraine
haslimits.Russiawasdeterminednottocavetosanctions,andiftherecentvoteintheFrenchsenateisanyindication,thesanctionsregimewillnot
lastforever.

Putinisaverysmart,sophisticatedpoliticalanimal,saidYatsenyuk.Hecanwaitandwaitforaquitelongandextensiveperiodoftime.Heknows
howtheWesternpowersact.

TheUnitedStatesmustestablishanewrelationshipwithRussiathatisintellectuallyhonestaboutMoscowsactionsandintentionswhilepreserving
whatevercooperationispossible.ThatmaymeanfindinganendgametotheUkrainesanctionsbeforetheycrumbleundertheirownweight.Butit
alsomeanspushingbackmoreagainstRussianprovocationsandraisingthecostforPutinwhenheactsoutonotherfronts.

DefenseSecretaryAshtonB.Carter,whointernallyopposedPresidentObamasnewSyriaproposal,saidlastweekthatifRussiawoulddothe
rightthinginSyriathatsanimportantconditionasinallcaseswithRussia,werewillingtoworkwiththem.

TheU.S.governmentneedstocomeupwithacredibleanswertothecorrespondingquestion:WhatisitwillingtodoifRussiacontinuestodothe
wrongthings?

Readmoreaboutthistopic:

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:OlegLitwinow<olitwin45@gmail.com>
Date:Mon,Jul4,2016at2:47AM
Subject:Re:ThankstoRussia,UkrainiansSwellRanksofKyivPatriarchate[ED:PartofaLargerDiscussionGoingonintheCA
UOCCommunity]
To:valroslin<valroslin@gmail.com>
Cc:MykolaJemetz<mjemetz@yahoo.ca>,24MORE

Val,etal.,

Wemustadmitthatallnon-imperialistOrthodoxshouldbehappythatthisSoborwassuchaspectacularRussianpropagandafailureduetothenon-
attendanceoftheRussianfactionandcool-handBart'srefusaltobudge.SomedelegatestotheSobormayhavebeenshort-changed(Serbs)but
Orthodoxywastherealwinner.TheROCraccoon-dogsyelped,butthecaravanmovedon.WecanonlyhopethatBartwillresisthistemptationto
negotiateforbetterdealsfromMoscowinexchangeforignoringtheattemptedkickinthefacehealmostgotfromPutin(hadhecancelledthe
Sobor).

Putin'sinvasiontransformedUkraine.Putin'sthreatsrejuvenatedNATO.Putin'sorderofnon-attendanceexposedanddemonstratedthefascist
natureoftheROC(farfromecumenical!)anditsimperialistRusskyMirphilosophy.

Therecanbenopeacefulco-existencewithPutin'schurch.TheROCmustbekickedoutorsplitoffmainstreamOrthodoxybecauseofitsinability
toexcludeitselffromcolludingwiththeforeignpolicyofMoscow,renderingitincompatiblewithanymoralethicbutthedevil's.LikePutin,the
ROCbelievesthatpromisesaremadetobebroken.TheROCbelievesthattherecanbenoecumenismandnocooperationwithinOrthodoxyuntil
aNaziMoscowbecomestheThirdRomeandimposesaRusskiMironallOrthodox.ThiswasthelessonthatwastaughtattheSobor.

TheSoborconfigurationandfailedattemptatdisruptiondemonstratedthattheROCandtherestofOrthodoxysubscribetomutuallyexclusive
systemsofvalue.SeeJuly3,2016Windowoneurasia"LudditesoftheWorldComingTogethertoSavePutin"byS.Ilchenko.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:MiraKyzyk<mirakyzyk@gmail.com>
Date:Mon,Jul4,2016at9:49AM
Subject:Russia'sUnlikelyAdvocate:CaliforniaRepublican-ABCNews
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

Russia'sUnlikelyAdvocate:CaliforniaRepublican-ABCNews

'SurferRepublican'Russia'sUnlikelyAdvocatein
Congress
BYMARIADANILOVA,ASSOCIATEDPRESS

WhenseveralmembersofCongressaccusedVladimirPutin'sRussiaofhumanrightsabusesandaggression
towarditsneighbors,aveteranCaliforniacongressmanstoodvirtuallyaloneinurgingamorecautionarystance.

For69-year-oldRep.DanaRohrabacher,aself-described"surferRepublican,"thiswasn'tatotallyunexpectedposition:he'slong
beenvirtuallythelonepro-RussianvoiceonCapitolHill.

"Rightfromthebeginningwe'vehadthisincrediblehostility,"Rohrabacher,whohasdefendedPresidentVladimirPutinandurgeda
dialoguewiththeKremlin,lamentedatarecentcongressionalhearing.HeurgedbothRussiaandtheUnitedStatesatthetimeto
"takeadeepbreathandastepback."

Thispastspring,Rohrabacher'spositiondrewsupportfromDonaldTrump,thepresumptiveRepublicanpresidentialnominee,who
advocatesgivingrelationswithMoscowanotherchance."Commonsensesaysthiscycleofhostilitymustend,"Trumpsaidina
speechinApril.

AformerspeechwriterforPresidentRonaldReagan,the14-termRohrabachertakesprideinhavingworkedtoweaken"ourmajor
globalenemyatthattime,theSovietUnion."AlargephotoinhisofficeshowshiminthehillsofAfghanistaninthe1980s,where,he
toldTheAssociatedPressinaninterview,helaunchedrocketsatSovietpositionsasavolunteerfighter.

Rohrabacher'sviewchangedwhentheSovietUnioncollapsedin1991,andRussiaemergedasadifferentcountry.Althoughhe
acknowledgesthatoppositionleadersfacerepressioninRussia,healsosaysthecountryallowsreligiousfreedomandisgenerally
moreopenthanitspredecessor.

Inthemid-1990s,RohrabachergotatasteofRussianpolitics,hesays,whenhewelcomedadelegationofyoungRussianpolitical
leaders,whichincludedPutin,whothenworkedforthemayorofSt.Petersburg.Afterafriendlyfootballmatch,thegroupwenttoa
nearbypubandstartedarguingoverwhethertheSovietUnionlosttheColdWar.Thedebateturnedintoanarm-wrestlingmatch
betweenPutinandRohrabacher,whichPutinwon.

"IendedupwithPutin,andhebeatmejustlikethat,"Rohrabachersaid,snappinghisfingers.

NowRohrabachersayshebelievespolicymakersinWashingtonmisunderstandRussiaandtreatitunfairly.Insteadoffightinganother
ColdWar,RussiaandtheUnitedStatesshouldfocusondefeatingIslamicextremism."Weshouldnotbeinahostilerelationshipit's
nottothebenefitoftheirpeopleorourpeopletodothis,"RohrabachertoldTheAP.

JohnE.Herbst,aformerU.S.ambassadortoUkrainedisagrees,citingRussia'swarwithGeorgia,itsannexationofCrimeaandits
involvementintheseparatistconflictineasternUkraine.

"HehasbeenaconsistentvoiceinCongressforweakpoliciestowardsanaggressiveKremlin,"HerbstsaidofRohrabacher."Ihave
noreasontoquestionhisintegrityIhavelotsofreasontoquestionhisjudgment."

Thelawmaker'scritics,however,areunconvincedofhisintentions,sayingthatRohrabacherisn'tjustadvocatingforworldpeacebut
isinsteadpushinganagendathatbenefitstheRussiangovernment.

AmajorsorepointinU.S.-Russianrelationsisa2012lawimposingtravelbansandassetfreezeson39Russianofficialsdeemed
implicatedinthejailhousedeathofRussianwhistleblowerSergeiMagnitsky.MagnitskywasarrestedsoonafterheaccusedRussian
officialsofstealingsome$230millionofgovernmentmoneyinataxfraudschemetheRussianpresidentialcouncilonhumanrights
concludedhewasbeatenanddeniedmedicaltreatmentinjail.

MagnitskyworkedforBritish-AmericanfinancierWilliamBrowder,whoranRussia'slargestinvestmentfundbeforebeingexpelled
fromthecountryin2005.Browder,wholobbiedforthelawthatbecameknownastheMagnitskyAct,hastracedthemissingmoney
toaccountslinkedtoRussianofficialsinvariouscountriesandhassoughttofreezetheassets.ANewYorkcourtiscurrently
examiningthecaseofaRussian-ownedholdingcompanycalledPrevezon,whose$14millionworthofassetshavebeenfrozenbythe
U.S.governmentinconnectionwiththefraud.

TheMagnitskyActinfuriatedofficialsinMoscow,manyofwhomliketotravel,buypropertyandeducatetheirchildrenintheWest.
RussiaretaliatedbybanningAmericanfamiliesfromadoptingRussianorphans.

Thisspring,RohrabachermetwithRussianofficialswhileonatriptoMoscowandthensatdownwithaPrevezonrepresentativein
Washington.

InMay,RohrabachertriedunsuccessfullytopersuadetheHouseForeignAffairsCommitteetodropMagnitskyfromthenameofa
billextendingsanctionstohumanrightsabusersfromothernations.Duringthevote,hesuggestedthatBrowdermighthavebeen
involvedinthetaxfraudhimself."Iwouldliketosaythatit'spossible...butwedon'tknowenough,"hesaid.

BrowderaccusedRohrabacherofspreadingdisinformation.Magnitsky'sabuseinjailiswell-documentedtheJustice
DepartmentnamedBrowder'scompany"avictim,notaperpetrator"ofthefraud,accordingtocourtfilings.

"HeisknowinglyputtingoutanarrativeontheMagnitskycasewhichiscontradictedbyevidencefromRussiaandalargeamountof
analysisbyindependentbodies,includingtheU.S.government,"BrowdertoldtheAPofRohrabacher.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:PeterBorisow<ap.borisow@comcast.net>
Date:Mon,Jul4,2016at1:29PM
Subject:Re:Polish"patriots"(PrzemyskieBractwo)vsUkrainian"nazi"(OtVinta)[ED:SomeSoundAdviceFromPB
toAnt/F]
To:AntonivFamily<antoniv_family@msn.com>
Cc:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

AlthoughI'moffendedbytheseactionsbytheso-calledPolishPatriots,IviewthemasjustanotherbitofPutin's
overalleffortstodestabilizeUkrainianrelationswithanyandallitsfriendsandneighbors.It'stheoldKGBpracticeof
"pouringwaterintoeventhesmallestcracksinwinter".I'mcertainthesefolks,nomatterhowtheypresent
themselves,andnomatterwhattheiroriginalorigins,arenowfullyfunded,supportedandmanipulatedbyPutinfor
thepurposeofantagonizingPolishUkrainianrelationsandbreakingtheemergingandessentialalliancebetween
UkraineandPoland.WeneedtoformafrontlinealliancewithPolandagainstRussia.Putinknowsthis.Heistrying
tosowenmitywhereverhecantodisruptit.

We'renotgoingtomakeBanderaaheroinPoland,nomatterwhatwedo.NorcanPolandjustifyitsearlierrulein
WesternUkraine.Weneedtomoveon.Wecannotgetboggeddowninthisdebatefortheonlypossiblewinneris
Russia.Myfeelingisthatafteradifficulthistory,sincetheendofWWII,forthelastthreequartersofacentury,both
UkraineandPolandhavebeenandcontinuetobethreatenedmenacedandoccupiedbyRussiawhichisquite
happytoconsumethemoneatatime.Consumingthemtogether,intheformofarealmilitaryalliance,especiallyif
theyarejoinedbytheBalticStates,isnotlikelytohappenandPutinknowsthis.

AlthoughPolandisamemberofNATO,therearen'tenoughNATOtroopsorheavyequipmentinNATOtostopafull
Russianthrust,especiallyifitcomesfrombothRussiaandtheoccupiedterritoryofKaliningrad.Polandmustbynow
understandthatNATOisnotgoingtogonuclearagainstRussiatosavePoland.Anon-nuclearalliancewithUkraine
andtheBalticStatesisinrealityamorecredibledefenseagainstRussia.

ThedebateaboutBanderaisPutin'sdiversion.Wemustnotgetboggeddowninit.Weneedtomoveon,focusing
ontherealthreat--Russia.

OnJul3,2016,at10:01PM,AntonivFamilywrote:

RE:UkrainianmusicbandOtVintabannedfromPolandduetolocalultrasprotests

Polish"patriots"(PrzemyskieBractwo)vsUkrainian"nazi"(OtVinta)

PhotoofMr.Zhuravel'nexttoBanderamemorialpostedbyPrzemyskieBractwoasproofofhis
extremism:
http://pl-
pl.facebook.com/PrzemyskieBractwo/photos/a.212354862198471.35098.205452122888745/822499084517376/?
type=3

<13510918_822499084517376_8127915420853845268_n.jpg>

someother"disturbing"drawingsofMr.Zhuravel'postedonFB
http://pl-
pl.facebook.com/PrzemyskieBractwo/photos/pb.205452122888745.-2207520000.1467605156./821474824619802/?
type=3

From: AndersAslund<AAslund@ATLANTICCOUNCIL.ORG>
Senttime: 07/01/201612:14:54PM
Subject: EuropeNeedsMoreTransparency

DearFriends,

TheAmericanInteresthaspublishedmyargumentforgreattransparencyespeciallyinEuropeasamatterofnationalsecurity.

Withbestwishes,

Anders

http://www.the-american-interest.com/2016/06/30/europe-needs-more-transparency/

TheAmericanInterest
Publishedon:June30,2016
COMBATINGCORRUPTION

EuropeNeedsMoreTransparency
ANDERSSLUND
Combatingillicitfinancialflowsandrootingoutcorruptionaremattersof
nationalsecurity.

C orruptionisadangertonationalsecurity.Europeisexposedtoarisingsecuritythreatintheformof
dirtymoney,whetherfromRussia,Chinaorterrorists.Transparencyistheonlycure.Itmustnolonger
beacceptablethatpeopleinhighplacesreceivemoneyofunknownorigin,andthatthousandsofmulti-
milliondollarpropertiesareownedbyunknownpeople.

Europeknowshowtodealwithsuchchallenges.Inthe18thcentury,aristocratsruledSwedenallowed
themselvestobeboughtbyforeignpowers.TheBritishenvoyinStockholmwrotetoLondon,urging
HisMajestysGovernmenttoprovidehimwithlargerfundssothathewouldnolongerbeoutbidbyhis
RussianandFrenchcompetitorsinthatpervasivelycorruptcountry.

Swedenintroducedradicaltransparency,andithasstuck.In1766,thepartyofcommonerspromulgated
thefirstFreedomofInformationActintheworld.Allpublicinformationbecameopentoall,with
exceptionsmadeonlyfornationalsecurityandmedicalrecords.ThislawhassurvivedinSweden,aswell
asinFinland.In1771,Denmarkintroducedsimilarlegislation,whichhaspersistedtherethroughtoday.
Norway,whichwasapartofDenmarkatthetimethelawswerewritten,hasalsoseenthoselawssurvive.

Theimpactofthisfar-reachingtransparencyhasremainedextraordinary.In2015,theCorruption
PerceptionIndexofTransparencyInternationalrankedDenmark,Finland,andSwedenatthetopwithoil-
richNorwayinthefifthplace.

Absurdly,manyWesternnationsfavorthehidingofill-gottenwealth,undertheguiseofprivacy,over
transparency.ReportersWithoutBorders,whichrankspressfreedomintheworld,in2016putDenmark,
Finland,Norway,andSwedenamongthetoptenfreestcountries.Greecewas89thoutof180countries,
andItalywas77th,Francecamein45th,theUnitedStates41standtheUnitedKingdom38th.IntheUnited
KingdomandintheU.S.,mediafreedomsuffersfromfar-reachinglibellawswhichseverelyreducethe
freedomofspeech.Freedomofthepressisfurtherreducedinthesetwocountriesbytheextensiveuse
ofgagordersissuedbyjudgesprohibitingbothinformationandcommentsaboutcourtproceedings
frombeingmadepublic.(DonaldTrumphaspubliclycommittedhimselftolimitingU.S.pressfreedoms
further.)Asaconsequence,criticaljournalismofrichcrookshasbecomealmostimpossibleinthe
English-speakingworldunlesstheindividualsinquestionhavealreadybeensentencedtoprisonorhave
beensanctioned.

Attherecentanti-corruptionsummitinLondon,BritishPrimeMinisterDavidCameroncalledforthe
revelationofthebeneficiaryownersofthenearly100,000buildingsintheUnitedKingdomthatare
registeredinthenameofanonymousoffshorecompanies.IntheUnitedStates,thisnumberisseveral
timeslarger,withDelawaretakingtheleadastheforemostoff-shorehavenintheworldallowinglarge-
scaleanonymousownership.In2012,TheNewYorkTimesreportedthatasinglebuildinginWilmington
wasthelegaladdressofover285,000separatebusinesses.

In2014,theprivateFirstCzechRussiaBankprovidedtheFrenchextremerightNationalFrontwitha
loanof9million,withnoindicationastohowthisloanwassupposedtobepaidback.Partyleader
MarineLePenproceededtoaskfor27millionin2016.FinancingoftheUKsLeavecampaignhasalso
beenlessthantransparent.Europeneedstodefenditsdemocracybyprohibitingsuchdubiousformsof
financing,astheNorthEuropeanandBalticcountriesalreadyhavedone.Britain,France,andItalyneed
totightentheirpoliticalfinancingiftheyarenottobelostincorruption,whichmaycomefromRussiaor
elsewhere.

T hetimehascomefortheUnitedStatesandEuropeancountriestocatchupwithwhattheNordic
countriesdid250yearsago.Fromtimetotime,NordicrepresentativeshaveproposedthattheEuropean
UnionandindividualEUcountriesadoptsimilarlegislation,butsofartheyhaveencountered
overwhelmingresistance,especiallyfromFrance.Inthefaceofdirtymoneyfinancingterrorismand
subversiveactivitiesthisisnolongerpermissible.TheEUneedstogetitsacttogether.
Tobeginwith,theEUshouldadoptatransparencydirective,requiringallEUcountriestoadoptstrict
transparencylaws.BoththeEUandalltheEUcountriesshouldberequiredtohaveaproperdefinitionof
lobbyistsanddemandthatalllobbyistsberegistered.Non-EUlobbyistsshouldbesubjecttospecial
registrationasisthecaseintheUnitedStatesforrepresentativesofforeigninterests.

TheEuropeanParliamentandallEUcountriesparliamentsneedtoclarifywhichadditionalincomesare
permissibleandwhicharenot.Atpresent,membersoftheEuropeanParliamentareallowedtohave
consultingcontractswithprivatecompanies,andtheMEPinquestionisonlyrequiredtoregisterit.The
situationisfarworseinmanyEUcountries.Suchsideincomesshouldnotbeallowedfor
parliamentariansoranyotherpublicofficials.

Anonymousownershipshouldnotbeallowed.HerethebiggestproblemsareintheUnitedKingdomand
theUnitedStates.EvenUkrainehasmanagedtoforceallitsbankstorevealtheirbeneficiaryowners.All
Europeancountriesshoulddothesamebothtostoptaxevasionandtostrengthennationalsecurity.

Inresponsetotheglobalfinancialcrisisof2008,tightcontrolshaveevolvedwithinthebankingsystem.A
bankisnotallowedtoopenanaccountforanycustomerthatitsuspectsofviolatinglaws.However,one
blatantholepersistsintheknow-your-customerrules,namelyforRussianstatecorporations.No
companyhasbeenaccusedofmorecorruptionthanRussiasstategiantGazprom.Themurdered
RussianoppositionpoliticianBorisNemtsovmadeawell-documentedcasebackingsuchaccusations.
SuchinformationisusuallymorethansufficientforEuropeanbankstoprohibitacompanyfromopening
anaccountwiththem.

Inaword,theWestneedstostarttotakeitsnationalsecurityseriously.

AndersslundisaseniorfellowattheAtlanticCouncilinWashington.

Andersslund|SeniorFellow
103015thStreet,NW,12thFloor|Washington,DC20005
E:AAslund@AtlanticCouncil.org|Phone:(202)8642848
Followmeontwitter:@anders_aslund
www.facebook.com/AtlanticCouncil|@AtlanticCouncil|www.atlanticcouncil.org
Readmynewbook:"Ukraine:WhatWentWrongandHowtoFixIt"

From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 06/28/201609:53:23AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:[LATENITERUN..NICMND&INTERESTINGMATERIALFROMTHECAUAORTHODOXCOMMUNITY][NICM]Fightingin
Subject: E/UAUAarmedforcesDiplomacyNATOUSforcesRUforcesRUsocietyEUFNDKSanctionsHybridwarGEBrexitRUforcesin
SY.[UA...

From:wolodymyrzarycky[mailto:wzarcusur@gmail.com]
Sent:Monday,June27,20168:01PM
To:RomaHadzewyczrl
Subject:Fwd:[LATENITERUN..NICMND&INTERESTINGMATERIALFROMTHECAUAORTHODOXCOMMUNITY][NICM]Fightingin
E/UAUAarmedforcesDiplomacyNATOUSforcesRUforcesRUsocietyEUFNDKSanctionsHybridwarGEBrexitRUforces
inSY.[UA...

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:NicMarsh<nic@prio.no>
Date:Mon,Jun27,2016at6:15PM
Subject:FW:FightinginEasternUkraineUkrainearmedforcesDiplomacyNATOUSforcesRussianforcesRussiansociety
EUFinlandDenmarkSanctionsHybridwarGeorgiaBrexitRussianforcesinSyria
To:

FightinginEasternUkraine

LatestfromOSCESpecialMonitoringMission(SMM)toUkraine,basedoninformationreceivedasof19:30,26June2016

InKominternovetheSMMfoundthebodiesoftwoyoungboyskilledbypowerlinesmostprobablydownedbyshelling.In
DonetskregiontheSMMobservedmoreceasefireviolationsoneach25and26Junecomparedto24June.InLuhanskregion
theSMMrecordednoceasefireviolationson25June,andfeweron26Junecomparedto24June.

http://www.osce.org/ukraine-smm/248801

UkrainianGovernmentReports55AttacksOverPrevious24Hours

http://www.interpretermag.com/day-860/

Ukrainearmedforces

Ukrainianwomenreceiverighttoserveincombatpositions

http://uatoday.tv/society/euromaidan-press-ukrainian-women-receive-right-to-serve-in-combat-positions-679880.html

Diplomacy

RussiaisharassingU.S.diplomatsalloverEurope

http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/global-opinions/russia-is-harassing-us-diplomats-all-over-
europe/2016/06/26/968d1a5a-3bdf-11e6-84e8-1580c7db5275_story.html

NATO

NATOSecretaryGeneralappointsRoseGottemoellerasnextDeputySecretaryGeneral

http://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_132813.htm

AmericanArmsControlExpertAppointedDeputyHeadofNATOOverGOPOpposition

http://blogs.wsj.com/brussels/2016/06/27/american-arms-control-expert-appointed-deputy-head-of-nato-over-gop-opposition/

RussianAnxietyOverMontenegro'sNATOAccession

http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-montenegro-nato-accession/27821224.html

USforces

ColdWar2.0:TheUSmilitaryisbeefingupitspresenceintheformerSovietBloc

http://news.vice.com/article/cold-war-20-the-us-military-is-beefing-up-its-presence-in-the-former-soviet-bloc

Russianforces

TheExpensivePretzelLogicOfDeterringRussiaByDenial

http://warontherocks.com/2016/06/the-expensive-pretzel-logic-of-deterring-russia-by-denial/

No,Russiaisnotpreparingforall-outwar

Thecrucialingredient,afterall,isintent.Inthatcontext,whileRussiaisclearlymountingamuchmoreaggressivechallengeto
westernwillandmorale,andindeedthecredibilityoftheinternationallegalandpoliticalorder,thisdoesnottranslateintoa
willingnesstostartawaritcouldnotpossiblywin.DeployingairpowerinSyriaagainstrebelslargelywithoutanymeaningfulanti-
aircapabilityisonething.TanglingwiththemostpowerfulmilitaryallianceintheworldonethathasoutspentRussiabyanorder
ofmagnitudeforthepasttwentyyearsissomethingelseentirely,andRussiassoldiers,atleast,understandthatverywell.

Furthermore,letsnotgetcarriedawaybythesmoothseizureofCrimeaorthedramaticparadesheldonRedSquare.Russias
armyismoreformidablenowthatatanypointsincetheSovietcollapse.However,reformisverymuchaworkinprogress,and
demographicandeconomicdeclinesalikewillmakefurthermodernisationincrementallyharder.

BeyondtherelativelyeliteforcesoftheSpetsnazcommandos,paratroopers,marinesandafewselectarmyunits,muchofthe
Russianmilitaryisstillispoorshape.SyriaandtheDonbasaresoakingupasignificantproportionoftheirmoreableand
professionaltroops,andneitherconflictlookslikeendingimminently.

Moscowcontinuestotalkupastorm,threateningunspecifiedactsagainstRomaniafordeployinganti-ballisticmissiles,announcing
thecreationofnewdivisionsandpromisingtomoderniseitsweapons.ButthisisanarmystilllargelydeployingSoviet-era
weapons,copingwithcutsinspendingcertainlygreaterthanthe5%admitted,andfranklyrunningoutofmen.

Russiaslatestsnapmobilisationdrills,afterall,reflectrecognitionoftheseproblemsasmuchasanythingelse.UnderPutin,strides
hadbeenmademovingthemilitaryfromaSoviet-stylemassarmy,withmanyunitslittlemorethanemptyshellswaitingtobefilled
withreservistsduringnationalmobilisation,toaleanerandmoreprofessionalstandingarmy.Bythebeginningofthisyear,
volunteersoutnumberedconscripts.

Thisisnobadthing.Conscriptsservingjustone-yeartermsacquireonlyrudimentaryskills,andcannotbeusedinmilitary
adventures.ThisiswhytheunitssenttotheDonbasareFrankensteinforces,adhocbattaliontacticalgroupscompanies
stitchedtogetherfromavarietyofparentunits.However,asdefenceministerSergeiShoigustartstalkingaboutcreatingnew
divisionsandarmies,iftheyaretoberealnewforces,thentheywillhavetodependmoreoncallingupreservists.

Andtherestheproblem.Russiasreservesystemisbroken.Formernationalservicemenlargelynevertaketherefreshertraining
meanttobeobligatory.Recordsarepatchyandoutofdate.Stocksofweaponsanduniformshavenotbeeninventoriedproperly,
sowhoknowshowmuchisnowunusableorstolen.Thesenewdrillsareasmuchasanythingelseanefforttofindoutjusthow
brokenthesystemisastodemonstrateanyterrifyingmilitarypower.

ButthatsnothowtheKremlinsellsthem,anditsnothowthewesttakesthem,soeveryoneknowinglyorunknowinglyconnives
atbuildingupMoscowsmartialmyth.ThisiswhytodaysRussianmilitaryshouldbeconsideredpartfightingforce,partmarketing
gimmick.

Lestthissoundtoomuchlikeacounseltocomplacency,therearefourparticularrisksassociatedwiththecurrentsituation,evenif
theyarenttherisksthatsoexciteRANDwar-gamersandwesterndefencemanufacturers.

ThefirstriskisthatthewestoratleastsomenationsandleadersinthewestarecowedandofferPutincompromisesthat
wouldonlyencouragefurtheradventurism.TheKremlinsintentis,afterall,thattheloudrattleofthesabresdistractsobservers
fromnoticingtherustandbluntnessontheweaponsthemselves.

NATOhasrespondedrobustlyasaninstitution,notleastbydeployingforcesintotheBaltics.Butnotallitsmembersarequiteso
comfortableandmaybemorewillingtotakeasofterlinewithMoscowoverUkraineinthehopethiswillratchetdownthe
perceivedthreat.

Thesecondriskisthatthewestbecomesobsessedwithamythicalmilitarythreatandthusdistractsitselffromtherealonesalready
inplaythosefromRussianespionageandinfluence,subterfugeandsubversion.

ReachingtheNATOgoalofspending2%ofnationalGDPonthemilitaryisallverywell(atpresentonlyfiveofthealliances28
membersdo:Greece,Estonia,Poland,theUKandUSA),butarguablyforsomebuildingupgreatercapacitiesincounter-
intelligence,financialmonitoring,evenmediaregulationwouldactuallybetterdefendthemagainstRussianchallenges.

Thethirddanger,ofcourse,isthenightmarescenario,thateithersideoverreactsormisreadsthesituation,seesadirectmilitary
threatwherenoneexists,andrespondsinkind.

ItisfarmorelikelythatRussiawillmakesuchablunder:Putinissubjecttonomeaningfulconstitutionalchecksandbalances,hasa
tasteforthecoupdethtre,seesahostileandconspiratorialworld,andisfedpoliticisedintelligencethatreinforceshisprejudices.

Nonetheless,itisnotimpossiblethatNATOcouldreacttoafeintinsuchawaythat,whenviewedthroughthedistortingglassof
theKremlinswindow,itlookstoPutinlikeagenuineattack.Infairness,behindthefuriousrhetoric,Moscowrespondedwith
surprisinglevel-headednessafterTurkeysshootingdownofaRussianbomber.Butwecanhardlyassumethatthismeansthereis
nopotentialforfutureflareups.

Fourthandfinalisthepossibilitythatthisconfrontationalsituationbecomesanendinitself.

PutinappearstohaveinternalisedaManichean,zero-sumsenseofhisrelationshipwiththewest,andthisdrivessomuchother
policy,fromcounter-sanctionstopoliticalrepression.Manyinthewestlikewiseembracewithnear-reliefareturntothe
comfortinglysimplisticdualismoftheus-and-themmindsetoftheColdWar.

EvenifRussianandNATOforcesneverdrawdowninanger,internationalpoliticscouldeasilyfinditselflockedintoaninverse
Clausewitzianroleaswarbyothermeans.
http://www.opendemocracy.net/od-russia/mark-galeotti/no-russia-is-not-preparing-for-all-out-war

Russiansociety

TheBriefing:ANationOfSuspectsAndInformants

http://www.rferl.org/content/briefing-a-nation-of-suspects-and-informants/27822889.html

PutinsNewRival:Stalin

AstheKremlinstokesRussianfearsoftheWest,someyoungpeoplelongforwhattheythinktheyknowaboutthedictatorwho
sawthemthroughWorldWarII.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/06/27/putin-s-new-rival-stalin.html

Russiapasses'BigBrother'anti-terrorlaws

Lowerhousevotesinfavourofpackageofamendmentsthatcampaignerssaywillviolateprivacyandfreedom

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2016/jun/26/russia-passes-big-brother-anti-terror-laws

EU

EUsecuritystrategytopushforcloserdefenceco-operation

DraftversionofglobalstrategyseenbytheFTcastsseriousdefenceintegrationasthenorm

http://next.ft.com/content/ec4d06aa-3c32-11e6-8716-a4a71e8140b0

Finland

VladimirPutinwillvisitFinlandonJuly1

OnJuly1,thePresidentwillvisitFinlandattheinvitationofPresidentofFinlandSauliNiinist.

http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/52278

Denmark

Fodnote:NyekampflyforringerDanmarkskampflykapacitet

http://ing.dk/artikel/fodnote-nye-kampfly-forringer-danmarks-kampflykapacitet-185167

Sanctions

PutinsBankerWorkstheHill

http://www.the-american-interest.com/2016/06/24/putins-banker-works-the-hill/

Hybridwar

TheProblemWithHybridWarfare

manyintheBalticregionviewtheconceptasmerelyanothermechanismbywhichtheWestcanavoiddecisiveactionagainst
Russia,particularlybecauseNATOhasnotdeveloped,really,anoperationalconcepttoaddresshybridthreats.Theconcept,
accordingtothisEstonianofficial,allowsNATOtoavoidactionbecausearangeofactivitiesfromtheaggressiveuseof
disinformationbyMoscow,toeconomicpressure,tobriberyandthreats,touseoflocalstostirupprotestsbecome
convenientlycategorizedasbeingunderthethresholdofwar.Indeedasoneexpert,JamesSherr,hasobserved,inthehandsof
Russiahybridwarfarecouldcrippleastatebeforethatstateevenrealizestheconflicthadbegun,andyetitmanagestoslip
underNATOsthresholdofperceptionandreaction.Sherrisright.

http://warontherocks.com/2015/04/the-problem-with-hybrid-warfare/

Georgia

GeorgiaAnnouncesEndToMilitaryConscription

http://www.eurasianet.org/node/79436

Brexit

BritainRattlesPostwarOrderandItsPlaceasPillarofStability
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/26/world/europe/britain-rattles-postwar-order-and-its-place-as-pillar-of-stability.html?smid=tw-
share&_r=0

[SentbyStefanForss]

WithBrexit,WashingtonsDirectLinetotheContinentSuddenlyFrays

http://www.nytimes.com/2016/06/27/world/europe/john-kerry-brexit-european-union.html?nytmobile=0&_r=0

[SentbyStefanForss]

EUsSalvationaPriority

ByAndersslund

http://www.atlanticcouncil.org/blogs/new-atlanticist/eu-s-salvation-a-priority

AftertheBrexit,What'sNextforDefense?

http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/2016/06/24/after-brexit-whats-next-defense/86333926/

BrexitIsGoodNewsforRussiabutaHeadacheforNATO

BritainsexitfromtheEUwillundercutitsroleasAmericaskeyallyinEurope,leavingthecontinentmoredividedanddistracted
justthewayPutinlikesit.

http://foreignpolicy.com/2016/06/26/brexit-is-good-news-for-russia-but-a-headache-for-nato/

BrexitVoteComplicatesEuropesTerrorFight,SanctionsApproach

http://www.wsj.com/articles/brexit-vote-complicates-europes-terror-fight-sanctions-approach-1466961570

RussiaRevelsInBrexitVote

http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-revels-in-brexit-vote/27817778.html

HowBritainTrickedItselfIntoLeavingEurope

TheadmissiononTVbyUKIPleaderNigelFaragethathedfudgedthecostsandbenefitsofleavingtheEUisjustthetipofthe
proverbialiceberg.

http://www.thedailybeast.com/articles/2016/06/24/how-britain-tricked-itself-into-leaving-europe.html

TheEnglishhaveplacedabombundertheIrishpeaceprocess
http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jun/24/northern-irish-peace-sacrificed-english-nationalism

WhatwouldBrexitmeanforEUsanctionspolicy?

http://www.ecfr.eu/article/commentary_what_would_brexit_mean_for_eu_sanctions_policy6046

10yearsuntilaunitedEurasia:HowMoscowreactedtoBrexit

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/worldviews/wp/2016/06/24/10-years-until-a-united-eurasia-how-moscow-reacted-to-
brexit/?tid=sm_tw

HowBrexitWillChangetheWorld

17topeconomists,foreignpolicygurusandhistorianslookfiveyearsintothefuture.

http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/06/brexit-change-europe-britain-us-politics-213990#ixzz4Cott3O7d

Brexitvotemetwithcelebrationsfromfar-rightgroupsacrossEurope

Right-wingGermanpoliticianBeatrixvonStorchsaysshe'criedforjoy'atthenewsoftheresult

http://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/europe/brexit-eu-referendum-latest-far-right-celebrations-news-marine-le-pen-
a7101371.html

RussianforcesinSyria

Russia'sUnhelpfulGameInSyria

http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-unhelpful-game-in-syria/27820208.html

US-RussiaTensionsComplicateSyriaWar

http://www.voanews.com/content/us-russia-tensions-complicate-syria-war/3392595.html

____________________________

NicholasMarsh

ResearchFellow
PeaceResearchInstituteOslo(PRIO)

HausmansGate7

0186Oslo

Norway

email:nic@prio.no

telephone:+4722547772

skype:nicholas.james.marsh

web:www.nisat.org

twitter:@NisatPrio

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WasylSydorenko<wasyl.sydorenko@utoronto.ca>
Date:2016-06-2718:05GMT-04:00
Subject:Re:
To:OlegLitwinow<olitwin45@gmail.com>
Cc:valroslin<valroslin@gmail.com>,WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>,NataliaJemetz
<natalia.jemetz@gmail.com>,WRodak<WRODAK@bell.net>,IrenaWashchuk<irynawashchuk@gmail.com>,Mykola
Latyshko<myklat@bell.net>,<fidelsukhonis@gmail.com>,AlexRoslin<alexroslin10@gmail.com>,
LightOnTheDarkness<lahoda@ica.net>,"Dr.GeorgeLysyk"<drgeorgelysyk@sympatico.ca>,SametzRose
<sametzrose@rogers.com>

Olehetall!

Iseeyou'vereadthefinaldocumentsoftheCretanCouncil.

ThereisalsosomeinterestinginformationinthedocumentsonAutonomyandonDiasporas.ItseemsthattheEPhimselfisthe
victimofthisweirddancewherenomatterhowmanystepsyoutakeyou'restillstandinginthesamespot--sortoflikeAlice
throughtheLookingGlasswhereshe'srunningattopspeedwiththeRedQueenonlytodiscovershehasn'treallymoved.

ButIthinkthereissomeinformationtherethatcanbeusedtoouradvantagehereinCanada.ShortofgoingArmenianor
Anglican,wecancertainlyarguethattheUOCCisanAutonomousChurchinCanada(likethenon-RussianEstonianChurch).
TheonlyquestioniswhetherthatAutonomyshouldbegrantedbytheEPortheAntiochianChurch.Allthatisrequiredisthatour
MetropolitancommemoratethePatriarchoftheso-calledMotherChurchandthattheMotherChurchsendusourHolyOil.

Ideally,theUkrainianWorldCongressshouldsitdownwiththeChurchesandtelltheEPwhereitsatandkeeprepeatingituntilwe
getthedesiredresult.ThebasicproblemisthattheEPopposesglobalizationineveryaspectexceptone--theglobalizationof
GreekOrthodoxy.Ifhedoesn'trealizethatglobalizingOrthodoxymeansthatithastobede-Hellenized,thenhissuccessorwill(if
thereisasuccessor).TheGlobalizationofOrthodoxyrequiresthebreakdownoftradebarriers,i.e.canonicalterritories.Butit
doesn'tmeanthatsuddenlythereisbutonebrandofOrthodoxybeingmarketedacrossthesebarriers.Butglobalizationmeansthat
onlythemostuniversalideasaregoingtosurvive.AndthoseideashavenothingtodowithGreekorByzantinetraditions.
Universalideaswillcontinuetobeadaptedtothelocalneedsofpeople.WhentheCatholicChurchbegantoglobalizeinthe
1960s,oneofthefirstthingsitdidwasgetridoftheLatinlanguagesothatpeoplecouldifnecessarylocalizetheirchurches.It's
likeWindowsonyourcomputer.AtfirstitwasjustanEnglish-onlysystem.Whenitglobalized,onewasabletolocalizethe
workingenvironment.So,inUkraineyoucouldsetupaUkrainianinterfaceforworkinginWindows.Therewasaperiodoftime
whenMicrosoftcontinuedtoopposeallowingpeopleinNorthAmericafromlocalizingtheirWindowstosomethinglikeUkrainian.
Buteventuallytheyrealizedwhattrueglobalizationmeans--thatIshouldbeabletolocalizetheinterfaceglobally,i.e.whenI'min
Ukraine,orCanada,or...FortheEPandtheMPit'snotreallyaboutglobalizationbutstillverymuchaboutcolonization.Likein
Nigeria--they'rechantinginGreekwhilethepeoplearebeatingdrums,blowingtrumpetsandjumpingupanddown.Onehundred
yearsfromnowtheseNigerianswillbeclamoringfortheirownautocephalousChurchandthentherewillbeproblemsofthe
NigerianDiasporashouldclimatechangeforcepeopletomoveoutoftheequatorialzones.

Hereisa2013articlefromtheHuffingtonPostonglobalizationandreligion.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/margaret-placentra-johhston/globalization-vs-traditional-religion_b_2170609.html

Wasyl

On6/27/201616:30,OlegLitwinowwrote:

DearWasyl,etal.,

Re:Churchbehavinginduplicitousmannerisnotmorallyright.

You(we)areinabindherebetweenpolitics,moralityandtime.Politicsandmoralitysometimesintersect,sometimesdiverge.One
groupofparliamentarianssupports"patriotic"autocephaly,theother(39"MP"mpsarefora"colonialist"autocephaly,sopolitics
cannotbeexpectedtoalwaysdothe"rightthing".

Todaywemustwait.CouncilResolutionstatestheparticipantssupportpeaceinAfrica,andalso(bytheway)inUkraine,andthis
issupposedtobegood(sinceautocephalywasofftheagendaanyway)andallwecouldhaveexpectedfromthisCouncilatthis
time.Suchemptyplatitudesarepartofthetwostepsforwardandoneback,andconclusionsandresolutionsthatareimmoral
todaybecomethebasisofhopeforamoralfuture.

IfKPgetscanonicityandweare"cutoff"fromUkraineinCanada,thenwewillbewherewearerightnow,sowhyworryabout
futureduplicity(hopegonebad)?Youcan'tbemore(abetter)OrthodoxthanBart.

Soyes,itisonethingtoplanforamoraloutcomeintothefutureandanother(evenperhapsimmoral)tovoiceitorcontemplate
onit(ifitthenbecomespolitics).Therewillalwaysbehopeforthefuturesohopecannotbecutoffinadvanceforthesakeof
moralityorunjustifiedfeelingsofguilt.Sowemuststicktothepredeterminedagenda:-)

OnatemporarybasisfortheUOCC,theArmenian/Anglicanscenarioopensupandmaybeevenapossible1918Antiochan
scenario(justaskWinnipegforupdateonthat).

SentfrommyiPad

OnJun27,2016,at6:24AM,valroslin<valroslin@gmail.com>wrote:

Walter,Postingtoyoutwoarticles:Myzykarticle"Znushchanijianadistorijejiu"mightbeofinteresttoalotof
people.SecondarticlehastodowithTheCounciloftheOrthodoxesinCrete.

Bothwillleadtosignificantconsequencestomillions-politicallyandspiritually.Youmightconsiderpostingthem
bothtoyourintellectuals.

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------
:"NataliaJemetz"<natalia.jemetz@gmail.com>
:242016,23:37:00

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:NataliaJemetz<natalia.jemetz@gmail.com>
Date:Fri,Jun24,2016at8:37AM
Subject:Re:CanonicityandDiasporas
To:WasylSydorenko<wasyl.sydorenko@utoronto.ca>

OnFri,Jun24,2016at8:32AM,NataliaJemetz<natalia.jemetz@gmail.com>
wrote:

,
.?,
,.

,.
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.,
-.

OnFri,Jun24,2016at2:35AM,<wasyl.sydorenko@utoronto.ca>wrote:

Severalpeoplewrotebacktomeconfusedoverthisparagraph:

"IreallyseenoreasonwhytheKyivanPatriarchateshoulddesiretheEP's
omophor.TheUkrainianOrthodoxChurchshouldbeliketheArmenianorthe
Anglican,itsownChurch.AndtheUkrainianOrthodoxChurchofCanada
shouldbeitsownChurchtoo,unencumberedbytheGreekWorld.Otherwise
theKPwouldbeplayingagameofdoublestandards,likemanyotherlocal
autocephalousChurchesdo.Theywouldthinkonething,sayanother,anddo
somethingcompletelydifferent--"IdisagreewiththeEP,"but"I'llsign
thedocumentanyway,"because"IknowIwillcontinuetosupportmy
Diaspora."

Tobegin,Ihavetoremindallofyouofseveralkeyfactors.

1)WhenPatriarchFilaretwasinToronto(Oakville)afewyearsagohewarnedtheaudiencethat
canonicalrecognitionofKyivwasnotgoingtohelptheDiasporabecausewithcanonicalrecognition
Kyivwouldbecomelockedintoitsowncanonicalterritory,whichwouldbeUkraine--andnotextend
toothercountrieswheretheUkrainianDiasporaisfound.Thiswassaidinreferencetothe2009
ChambesyAccord,whichbasicallygavetheEcumenicalPatriarchexclusivecontroloverallthe
non-traditionally-Orthodoxterritoriesintheworld,i.e.WesternEurope,the
NewWorldandOceania.Therefore,ifKyivwantedtohaveitsbishopsadministereparchiesinCanada,
thiswouldbeuncanonicalbecauseKyivwouldbecompetingwithConstanstinople.VladykaYurij
himselfsaidatthe2010SoborinWinnipegthatCanadaisnotourterritory,thereforewecannotbe
autocephalousorevenaChurchbecausewedonothaveexclusiverights.But,howcanwehave
exclusiverightsifCanadaisamulticultural,multi-religious,anddemocraticcountry?

2)AttheSymposiumofUkrainianOrthodoxyafewyearslater
BishopEvstraty(Zoria)oftheKyivanPatriarchatesaidthesamething.CanonicalrecognitionofKyiv
wouldbegeographicallylimiting.TheKPcanonicalterritorywouldbeequaltothatofUkrainebut
wouldnot(couldnot)extendtoothercountrieswhereotherChurcheshavetheircanonicalterritories.
SinceCanadaisbeingclaimedbytheEP,itwouldbeuncanonicaltointerferebyassuming
administrativecontrolovertheUkrainianOrthodoxChurchofCanada.Inotherwords,themoment
someoneemigratesfromUkraine,theybecomedisenfranchisedfromtheKPChurch.Iftheysettlein
Bulgaria,theymustbecomemembersoftheBulgarianChurch.IftheysettleinSerbia,theymust
becomemembersoftheSerbianChurch.ButiftheysettleinCanada,theymustbecomemembersof
theChurchofConstantinoplebecausetheDiasporabelongstotheEP.

3)IaskedBishopEvstratywhytheKPistryingtobesouber-canonicalevenbeforetheyactuallyhave
receivedcanonicalrecognition.Isthisjustposturing(genuflecting)beforetheEPtoobtainhis
"merciful"blessingandthelong-awaited-forcanonicalstatus?WouldtheKP
ignoretheserestrictionslikealltheotherLocal(National)ChurchesdoaftertheKPgetsitscanonical
status?BishopEvstratydidnotreply.Theanserewouldhavebeentoopolitically(diplomatically)
sensitive.

4)Nevertheless,itisevidentthatalthoughthevariousautocephalousChurchessignedthe2009
ChambesyAccord,atleasthereinNorthAmericatheprotocolsoftheaccordarenotbeingfollowed.
Infact,ataPan-Orthodoxgatheringin2014inClevelandthebishopsoftheAmericanAssemblyof
CanonicalOrthodoxBishopsadmittedthattheMotherChurcheswerenotlettinggooftheirparishes
andtransferringthemovertotheGreekOrthodoxChurchofAmerica(whichisrunbytheEP).

5)So,Iask,whydidtheMotherChurchesagreetosignthe2009
ChambesyAccordiftherewasnodesireofwilltoadheretoit?Isn'tthistwo-facedhypocrisy?Infact,
theRussianswereevenplanningtocelebratethe220thanniversaryoftheir
missioninNorthAmericain2014.Putin'sinvasionofUkrainedisruptedthosecelebrations.But
1794isamuchearlierdateforclaimingtheNewWorldthan1922whentheEPassumedcontrolover
theGreekDiasporainNorthAmerica.Meanwhile,theRomanianChurch,althoughcanonical,refusesto
limititselfgeographically.Itiswhereitsfaithfulare.TheBulgariansarenevergoingtosubmittotheEP.
TheirMinistryofForeignAffairsisworkingclosingwiththeDiaspora
toensurethattheircompatriotshavethecareoftheBulgarianChurchwhereverBulgarianslive.

Yes,canonicityisimportantfortheKPinUkraine.ButtheabilityoftheKPtolookaftertheUkrainian
Diasporaisalsoimportant.WhenIhearKPhierarchswarningtheDiasporathattheirpowerswillbe
limitedoncetheybecomecanonical,Iwonderifbecomingcanonical(apartofGreekOrthodoxy)isthe
wisestroutetotake.AndIfinditdistastefultoadvisetheKP
hierarchstosignanyprotocolsandbreakthemthemomenttheyaresigned.Thatissomethingthatthe
Russiansdo.However,thisisalsosomethingtheotherMotherChurchesaredoing.Ijustwishthatthe
EPwouldrealize(Ithinkhedoes)--no,admitthatstealingtheDiasporasofotherChurchesisnotgoing
tohelphimbuildglobalOrthodoxy.

Finally,IfinditcuriousthatIhavebeenexplainingthisoverandoverandoveragainforseveralyears
nowandpeoplestillkeepaskingmethesamequestionsthatrequirethesameanswers.Isthisacaseof
disbelief?Ifso,letmesummarizethisinafewshortpoints.

1)BothPatriarchFilaretandBishopEvstratyhaveresignedthemselvestothefactthatcanonicitywill
limittheKPtothebordersofUkraine.TheDiasporawillbeofflimits
becausetheDiasporabelongstotheEP.

2)SoifcanonicitysolvestheproblemoftheKPinUkraine,itdoesn'tsolvetheproblemoftheUOCC
inCanada.ThissamecanonicitybecauseofChambesydivides(separates)theUkrainianDiasporafrom
itsMotherChurch--Kyiv.

3)Therearewaysaroundthis--signingtheaccordsbutthenproceedingtoignorethem(likeallthe
otherChurchesaredoing).AndmaybethisiswhatwillhappeniftheKPsigns,butIdonotfeelmorally
righttosuggestaChurchbehaveinsuchaduplicitousmanner.

Wasyl

From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 06/28/201609:11:57AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:"USambassadortoRussia[JohnTEFFT]:NATO'mosteffectivedefensivealliance'inhistory,"
Subject:
http://www.rferl.org/articleprintview/27824043.html

From:JohnBDunlop
Sent:Tuesday,June28,20169:11AM
To:howard@jamestown.org
Cc:paul.goble@gmail.com'waz2102@caa.columbia.edu'
Subject:"USambassadortoRussia[JohnTEFFT]:NATO'mosteffectivedefensivealliance'inhistory,"
http://www.rferl.org/articleprintview/27824043.html

HiscommentscomeaheadoftheJuly89summitinWarsawwhereNATOleadersareexpectedto
endorseasubstantialincreaseinforcesinPolandandtheBalticstates

And:LITHUANIA[ForeignMinisterLinkevicius]warnsabouteasingantiRussianSANCTIONSafter
Brexit,themoscowtimes.com,6/28

And:RussiasaysUSwarship[USSGRAVELY]inNEARMISSwithRussianvessel[Russiannavyfrigate
YaroslavMudry]inMediterranean,reuters.com,6/28

And:UNIAN:PoroshenkoexpectspositivesanctionsagainstRussiaatEUsummit[onJune2829],
kyivpost.com,6/28

And:LeadinginvestigativejournalistOlegKASHIN,Anew1937[Stalinstylegreatpurge]:whydid
theyarrest[Governor]NikitaBELYKH?http://slon.ru/posts/70007

And:KonstantinREMCHUKOV,PutinhassentaSIGNALtothesystemicopposition,indicatingwho
couldbeworsethanatraitordetailedinterviewontheupcomingDumaelections,thearrestof
NikitaBelykhandmuchmore:ng.ru,6/28[originalpostedonEkhoMoskvywebsite]

And:PutindentsTURKISHhopesforquickrestorationofrelations,reuters.com,6/28

And:HillaryCLINTONisinterviewedbyEkhoMoskvy:http://echo.msk.ru/blog/echomsk/1792040
echo/

And:Bizarre:Trumplawyer[MichaelCOHEN]accusesClintonofMURDERintweet,
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/06/trumplawyerclintonmurder224876

DonaldTrumpslawyeraccusedHillaryClintonofmurderinganambassadorandsellingURANIUM
toRUSSIAthroughherfalsecharity

From: teagueeliza@aol.com
Senttime: 06/28/201603:38:09AM
To: robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: Fwd:
Attachments: Vsjakremlevskayarat_NEW.PDF

DearBob

IreadSamGreene'spiece(bychance,wesatnexttoeachotheronthetrainyesterday).Ihopeheisnotright.Iamnotconvincedby
hisargumentthatthosewhovoted"Leave"seenobetterfuture.Ithink,onthecontrary,thattheymistakenlythink(orthought)thereis
abetterfutureoutsidetheEU.ButIamtoodepressedfollowingtheresultsofthereferendumtothinkstraightatpresent.

Incaseyouhavenotseentheattachedbook,itwashighlyrecommendedbyFionaHilltoaformercolleagueofmine,MarkSmith,who
wasinWashingtonlastweekbutwhosadlytellsmehedidnotmeetyouandyourcolleagues.

Iwasmostimpressedbythisarticlehttp://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/unitedstates/20160613/caseoffshorebalancing

IwonderwhetherthiswouldbethebasisofaDonaldTrumpforeignpolicy?

Elizabeth
From: WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>
Senttime: 06/28/201601:48:57PM
To: WayneandStacyAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>
Subject: InternetNotes28June2016
Attachments: IN28June16.docx

InternetNotes28June2016

NotesonNotes(PutinontheDumaelections)

MedvedevendorsesKadyrov,Volodin,PoklonskayafortheDuma

MoreonBelykh(DeprivingliberalsofthecorruptiontrumpcardBabchenko:Nocollaborationwiththeregime
Kashin:Theregimeisrestructuring)

ErdoganapologizesfordownedRussianplane

SpainarrestssixRussiansinRussianMafiamoneylaunderingcase

SoloveyonRussiasviewofBrexit(PeskovonBrexit)

NotesonNotes(PutinontheDumaelections)

IincludedsomeofPutinsremarkstotheUnitedRussiaCongressregardingtheDumaelectionsinyesterdaysnotes.Hereisthe
fulltextinRussian:http://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/52279Kremlin.rusEnglishversionofthespeech:
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/52279

MedvedevendorsesKadyrov,Volodin,PoklonskayafortheDuma
http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/medvedev-wants-kadyrov-volodin-and-poklonskaya-for-russian-state-
duma/573590.html

RussianPrimeMinisterandchairmanoftheUnitedRussiarulingpartyDmitryMedvedevhasrecommendedthatfirstdeputyheadofthe
presidentialadministrationVyacheslavVolodinbereturnedtotheStateDuma,theRIANovostinewsagencyreportedMonday.

MedvedevalsorecommendedChechenleaderRamzanKadyrov,CrimeanprosecutorNatalyaPoklonskaya,CrimeanheadSergei
Aksyonovandseveralothergovernorsfortheparty'slistofcandidatesintheStateDumaelections.

ThisdecisionwasapprovedatapartymeetingonMonday.

VyacheslavVolodinhasheldthepositionoffirstdeputyheadofthepresidentialadministrationsince2011.Between1999and2010he
wasaStateDumadeputyandwaslaterappointeddeputyPrimeMinister.Volodinwillbetheonlytopofficialonthelistofcandidates,
apartfromMedvedev.

Hewillruninthe15thDistrict,whichincludesRussia'sVolgograd,Penza,SaratovandTambovregions.

Duringthe2011elections,ninetopofficialsheadedUnitedRussiaregionalelectorallists,butthismovewasunsuccessfulfortheparty,
asitdidpoorlyatthepolls,RBCreportedcitinganunidentifiedsourceinUnitedRussia.

Meanwhile,anunidentifiedsourceclosetothepresidentialadministrationtoldtheTASSnewsagencythatVolodinwillnottakeupthe
positionofStateDumadeputyifheiselected.

TheparliamentaryelectionsinRussiaarescheduledforSept.18.Thedeputieswillbeelectedunderthemixedelectoralsystem225
throughpartylistsandanother225throughsingle-memberdistricts.

MoreonBelykh(DeprivingliberalsofthecorruptiontrumpcardBabchenko:Nocollaborationwiththeregime
Kashin:Theregimeisrestructuring)

Seeyesterdaysnotes

NezavisimayaGazeta(http://www.ng.ru/editorial/2016-06-28/2_red.html)notesthatgovernorshavebeenarrestedanddismissed
beforegovernorsfromtheUnitedRussiapartybutBelykhscaseisdifferent.HewasassociatedwiththeUnionofRight
Forces,aliberalpartythatjoinedincriticizingvlast,especiallyforcorruption.Nowoneoftheirownisintroubleforcorruption,
deprivingtheliberalsofthattrumpcard.Theiraccusationswilllosetheirsharpness.PutinhadalreadyundercutBelykhandthe
liberalsbackin2012,whenhesaidthattheliberalshadsomepeopleinofficialpositionslikeBelykhinKirovOblastandtheir
workwasnotbetterthanothers:
.
,,.,
,?
,.

ButBelykhsarrestcouldalsoradicalizecriticsoftheregimeandundercutthosewhohavepromotedworkingwithinthesystem
Belykhwasloyaltotheregime,butwasarrested(withlotsofquestionssurroundingthechargesandthearrest)nonetheless.Some
willsaythatworkingwithinthesystemdoesnogood,weakeningtheinfluenceofmoremoderatevoices.Thatleavesonlywaiting
forthesystemscollapseorrevolutionBelykhsarrestwillfrightenallliberalswhohavebeenloyalandworkedinthesystem

ArkadiyBabchenko(http://echo.msk.ru/blog/spektr_press/1791460-echo/),whoremembersalltoowelltheforcetheregimehas
usedagainstitsopponentsinthepast,saysheisnosupporterofcollaborationwiththesystem.TheBelykhcaseraiseslotsof
questionsaboutthecharges:itseemsawfullystrange,forexample,thatagovernorcouldbeboughtoffforarelativelymodestsum
orthathewouldpickupcashinthemiddleofaMoscowrestauranttherearestilloffshoresarentthere?Butthemainquestions
arenotaboutwhetherBelykhwassetupBabchenkothinkssomeotherthingsaremoreimportant.Youeitherbecomepartof
thesystemorthesystemwilldestroyyou.Noonehasbeenabletochangethesystemfromwithin.Youcanstaywithinthesystem
andtakethebribesorresistandbedestroyed.Thosearetherulesofthegame.Nothingbutrevolutionanddestroyingthesystem
toitsfoundationsremainsNavalniyisfortunatethathewasnotelectedMoscowmayorKhodorkovskiyspeoplewhowantto
takepartintheDumaelectionsIwontvoteforthem.Itwillallendwithmoredirtyprovocations.ThesamegoesforPARNAS
andYabloko.ImnotcallingforMaydan.Thetimeforthathaspassed.Nobourgeois-democraticrevolutionwilltakeplacein
Russia.TherewillbesomethingelseIndefendingitselffromdemocraticrevolution,vlastwillinevitablybecometotalitarian
Yarovayasanti-terrorist/anti-extremistlawsarejustthefirstthatwilllegalizeterror(Seethe22and23Junenotes).Belykhs
arrestisjustonesmallepisodealongtheway

AsPolitcom.runotes,Belykhhasbeendistancinghimselffromtheoppositionforsometime:http://politcom.ru/print.php?
id=21229Ata2015conferencesponsoredbyKudrinsAll-RussianCivicForum,Belykhtoldactiviststostoptheirabstract
criticismofvlastandhealsotoldthemthathedoubtedtheyrepresentedarealcivilsocietyThePolitcom.rupiecealsopresents
threeversionsoftheBelykharrest:Versiya#1:Thearrestwaspolitical,connectedwiththeupcomingelectionsvlastislooking
forliberalstoblameforeconomicproblems.BothBelykhandtherecentlyarrestedYevgeniyDod(seethe23,24,and27June
notes)wereassociatedwithAnatolyChubaysVersiya#2:CompetitionbetweentheInvestigativeCommittee(SK)andthe
Prosecutorsoffice(BelykhsbrotherwasmadeheadoftheProsecutorsofficeintheVolgaFederalOkrugin2015)Vesiya#3:
BelykhsarrestwasawarningtoothergovernorshisandthearrestsofSakhalinOblastGovernorKhoroshavinandKomis
VyacheslavGayzer(See,forinstance,the9December2015notes).Thearrestwasastrongblowtopro-vlastliberals.TheSK
andtheFSBworkingtogetherwereshowingwhattheycandointakingonprominentmembersoftheregionalelite
Kashinsaysthattheregimeisrestructuringitselftheineffectivenessofadministration,includinggovernors,hastobedealtwith
andtheonlyinstrumentvlasthasisfear.Onemoresteptowardtotalitarianism.Theoldmeasuresofloyaltyandinformal
agreementswontbegoodenoughtoprotectyou:http://slon.ru/posts/70007

Comment:IfyournameisRoldugin,Kovalchuk,orRotenberg,theyprobablywillbegoodenough.AsIexplainedin
the2Junenotes,thecrisisandPutinsstateofmindarenarrowingthecirclehefeelshecanrelyonandthecircleof
thosewhocanexpecttobeimmunefromproblems.ThestorywasonZolotovsvictorymycommentsfollow:

[http://politcom.ru/21134.html

AlekseyMakarkinsaysthatMurovsresignationisavictoryforZolotov(theywereonceapparatusallies,butZolotovhashisownclientele
thesedays)ZolotovwasabletoreplacehimwithhismanDmitriyKochnev,ZolotovslongtimedeputyatthePresidentialSecurityServicewho
sincelastyearhasheadedthatservice.Systemically,weseecadresfromthatservicebeingplacedinimportantpostsGeneralKolpakovashead
ofthePresidentialAffairsAdministration,GeneralMironovisnowheadoftheMVDseconomiccrimesunit(MakarkinseesDyuminmovingfrom
deputydefenseministertoTulagovernorassomethingofademotionsoheisanexceptiontotherule).
Thereisatendencytoachangingofthegenerationalguardinthehigherechelonsofvlast.Intheearly2000s,whenPutinbecamepresident,he
broughtwithhimateamofpeopleclosetohim,peoplehehadworkedwithintheKGBorinSt.Petersburg.Foralongtime,Putindidnotmakeany
changesinhiscircleheisamanstableinhissympathiesaswellashisantipathies.Iftherewasachange,thenitwasalateralmove,or
accompaniedbysomeformofcompensation.Butsomewheredowntheline,PutinbegantodoubttheeffectivenessofthesepeopleYakunins
departurefromRussianRailwayswasanindicator.AndPutinsawthataresignationinhisclosecirclewasnotacatastrophe.Thesystemcontinued
tofunctionnormally.SowegotadominoeffectViktorIvanovlosthisFSKNpost,GryzlovhisseatasapermanentSecurityCouncilmember.Now
itsMurovsturn.

Comment:OnYakunin,Iwonderedwhetherhisdeparturehesubsequentlywarnedotherstheywerenotsafehadsomethingtodowitha)the
crisis,andtheineffectivenessofpeoplewhokeptcomingbackagainandagainaskingformoremoney,moresubsidies.Putinwasdisturbedby
thecrisisandthesensethathewasnotbeingrepaidwiththedegreeofsteadfastnessandloyaltyhemighthaveexpectedandb)Putinsownview
ofhimselfasamanofdestiny,onethatwasevident,Ithink,beforetheUkrainecrisis,asensethathewasamanapart,withaspecialmission.
Thatwouldtendtomakeiteasiertopartwithfriendshemightseeaspresentingroadblockstofulfillinghisdestiny.Inalowtrustenvironment
likethatinRussia,suchmovesmightcauserumblingsamongthoseinhiscirclewhoexpectapremiumfrombeingclosetothebodyaswell
asdrawingthecircleofthosemosttrustedevencloser.LikeZolotov.

Makarkindoesntliketheclandescriptionofgroupswithinvlasthesaysthatvlastismoreatomized,withRussianpoliticscomprisedofa
fewdozenmajorplayersandtheirclienteleswhoformsituationalallianceswithoneanother,andclashaswell,withthepresidentpresiding
overthesystemsarbitrationwhichsoundsprettymuchlikemyverticalaxisoftheclansystem(thejustbusinessaxis),soIthinkhes
makingadistinctionwithoutadifference.Onthehorizontalaxisareonesclosestfriendsandrelatives,thepeopleonecountsoninapinchI
thinkwehaveanideaofwhosomeofthosepeopleareinPutinscircleZolotov,Raldugin,theRotenbergs,andtheKovalchuksbeingexamples.

MakarkinissayingthatthecadrereservesPutinisdrawingonarenotsomuchfromthebroaderFSOasfromitsPresidentialSecurityService
branch.]

NovayaGazetacarriedanitemontheBelykhcase:http://www.novayagazeta.ru/inquests/73612.html

AclarificationonLaritskiy(Seeyesterdaysnotes).Heistheowneroftheskienterprisementionedasoneofthetwothatpaid
bribestoBelykhandistheformerownerofthemanagementcompanythatwasonceunderthecontrolofKirovlesLaritskiyis
currentlyinjailandthecaseagainsthim,accordingtoNovayassources,grewoutoftheinvestigationofNavalniyandtheKirovles
affairTheoperationagainstBelykhwasheadedbyMajorGeneralOlegFeoktistov,deputyheadofFSBInternalSecurity
(USB)(Comment:Oursourcestellusthathiscurrentsuperior,Korolev,willtakeoveratFSBEconomicSecurity
(SEB)andFeoktistovwillheadtheUSB.Feoktistovhasturnedupinthenotespreviouslyinthematerialonthe
GUEBiPKaffair.Seethenotesfrom10and14June).
ErdoganapologizesfordownedRussianplane

http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/turkish-president-apologizes-for-downing-russian-bomber/573600.html

TurkishPresidentRecepErdoganhasapologizedforthedowningofaRussianSu-24bomberinNovemberlastyear,theKremlinsaidinastatement
Monday.

Accordingtothestatement,PresidentVladimirPutinreceivedaletterfromErdoganinwhichtheTurkishpresidentexpressedhiswillingnessto
improverelationsbetweenthetwocountriesandapologizedforthedowningofthebomber.

IwouldlikeonceagaintoexpressmysympathyanddeepestcondolencestothefamilyofthedeceasedRussianpilotandtosaysorry.Ishare
theirpainwithallmyheart,Erdoganwasquotedassayinginthestatement.

WeperceivethefamilyoftheRussianpilotasaTurkishfamily.Wearereadytotakeanyinitiativeinordertorelievethepainandthedamagewe
inflicted,Erdoganadded.

TheTurkishairforcedownedaRussianSu-24bomberjetovertheTurkish-SyrianborderonNov.24,2015,claimingthatitviolatedTurkishairspace.
Russiadeniedtheclaimsandcalledtheincidentastabinthebackfromtheaccomplicesofterrorists.

ThiswasfollowedbyapackageofeconomicsanctionsimposedonTurkeybyMoscow.

Lastmonth,theTurkishpresidentsaidthathewantedtoimprovetieswithRussiabutdidn'tknowhow.Moscowrepeatedlysaidthatbetter
relationscouldonlybeachievedifTurkeyapologizedfortheincidentbutAnkararefusedtodoitatthattime.

AfterErdogansapology,TurkishpresidentialspokesmanIbrahimKalinsaidtheRussianandTurkishauthoritieshadagreedtotakewithoutdelay
allnecessarymeasuresaimedattheimprovementoftiesbetweenthetwocountries,theReutersnewsagencyreported.

TherenewalofcooperationbetweenthecountrieshasbeenwelcomedbyrepresentativesoftheRussiantourismindustry.

TheRussiantourismindustryislookingforwardtoTurkeyreopeningforRussiantourists,RussiasTourismIndustryUnionspokeswomanIrina
TyurinatoldInterfaxMonday.

ThesaleofpackagetourstoTurkeywasbannedaspartoftheeconomicrestrictionsagainstAnkara.

However,TyurinanotedthatthebanwaslinkedwithsecurityconcernssothereisnocertaintythataftertheTurkishleader'sapologythe
destinationwillbereopenedforRussiantourists.

ThespokeswomanaddedthatRussiantouristagencieshavesufferedbadlyduetothebanasnoothercountrycanreplaceTurkeyintermsof
price,qualityandlevelofservice,Interfaxreported.

Turkeyisnowreportedlypreparedtopaycompensation:http://www.themoscowtimes.com/news/article/turkey-ready-to-pay-
compensation-for-downed-russian-warplane/573627.html

SpainarrestssixRussiansinRussianMafiamoneylaunderingcase

Accordingtoslon.ru,atleastsixRussianswerearrested:http://slon.ru/posts/70066alongwithaUkrainianandaSpaniard
SpanishpolicesaythesuspectshadtiestoRussianpoliticians,includingmembersofUnitedRussia.Thesuspectswerealso
reportedlylinkedtoaColumbiandrugcartel

SoloveyonRussiasviewofBrexit(PeskovonBrexit)

http://new.vk.com/id244477574

TheresanoptimisticpointofviewthatBrexitmeansanEUpre-occupiedwithstrugglingoveritsexistencewillweakenpressure
onRussia.Supposedly,sanctionsimposedovertheDonbasswillbeweakenedattheendofthisyearinexchangeforremoving
heavyweaponsandvacationerscontrolintheDonbassandovertheborderwillbepassedtojointforcesmadeupoflocal
militiasandtheOSCEThepessimisticviewisthatinspiteofeverything,theWestwillremainunitedagainstRussiaandthat
newAmericanandBritishadministrationswillactdecisivelyandenergeticallyagainstRussiaThecynicalrealistviewisthatthe
problemisnotwiththeWestorwithsanctions,butwithdefectsinRussianpolicy,policythatisunlikelytochange
PeskovonBrexit:http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-06-27/kremlin-says-brexit-turmoil-reminiscent-of-soviet-union-
collapse

TheupheavalintheU.K.afteritsBrexitreferenduminfavorofleavingtheEuropeanUnionhassimilaritiestothe1991collapse

oftheSovietUnion,accordingtoRussianPresidentVladimirPutinsspokesman.

Whileitsunreasonabletodrawdirectparallels,itsobviousthattheU.K.isgoingthroughaturbulent,confusingand

unpredictableperiod,DmitryPeskovtoldreportersonaconferencecallMonday.Russiahasgonethroughthecollapseofthe

SovietUnionandmanygenerationsclearlyremembertheperiodoftheSovietcollapse,thatperiodofuncertainty.

RussiasrecallingthetraumaoftheendoftheSovietUnionastheU.K.wrestleswiththeconsequencesofbecomingthefirst

memberstatetochoosetoleavetheEU,castingashadowovertheblocsfutureexistence.TheUSSRwasdissolvedin

December1991,morethan18monthsafterLithuanialedtheBalticrepublicsindeclaringindependence.TheBalticstatesof

Estonia,LithuaniaandLatviajoinedtheEUin2004andallthreehavesinceadoptedtheeuroastheircurrency.Putincalled

theSovietcollapsethegreatestgeopoliticalcatastropheofthe20thcenturyin2005.

Therubleralliedthemostamongemerging-nationcurrencies,followingoilonMonday,paringitssharpestdropintwomonths

onFriday,whentheshockreferendumresulthammeredmarketsglobally.Ittraded0.4percentstrongerat65.3533perdollar

at3:29p.m.inMoscow.

Inthecurrentfragilesituation,oneblackswancanpullothersalongwithit,RussianFinanceAntonSiluanovsaidFridayin
Moscow,referringtotheeconomicimpactofrareunpredictableevents.Russianpolicymakersshouldbereadyfornegative

scenariosintheglobaleconomy,hesaid.

TheKremlinisfollowingeventscloselybecauseofpotentialeconomicconsequences,thoughtherearemorequestionsthan

answersnow,Peskovsaid.RussiahasoftenurgedtheU.K.torestoretiesinrecentyears,anditwillworktomaintaingood

relationswiththeEUsinceithasaninterestinastable,fast-developingandpredictableEurope,hesaid.

From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 06/27/201610:45:51PM
To: teagueeliza<teagueeliza@aol.com>
Subject: GEE!!!

http://moscowonthames.wordpress.com/2016/06/24/everything-is-true-and-nothing-is-possible/

EverythingIsTrueandNothingisPossible
LetthisbealessontothosewhothinkthatDonaldTrumpcannotwin.

ThedecisionbyamajorityofBritishvoterstoleavetheEuropeanUnionisnotarejectionofBrusselsmostBritish
votersknowlittleofhowtheEUworksandcareevenless.NorwasitarejectionofWestminster(agoodchunkof
whichsupportedBrexit),oroftheelite(publicschoolboysBorisJohnson,MichaelGoveandNigelFaragewonthe
day).

Thiswassomethingmore:Brexitisarejectionofthepoliticalcommunityassuch.

Twodaysbeforethereferendum,thejournalistOliverBulloughhadthistosayonFacebook:

Oncethisvilereferendumisover,whoeverwins,Britainneedstostartworkingouthowtomake
oursystemfairer.Atthemoment,itisjusttooeasyfortherichtogetawaywithfinancial
skulduggery,becausethepolice/taxauthoritiesareunder-resourced,therulesareover-complex,
andforeignjurisdictionsareunhelpful.Weneedtostartsortingthatout,andforcingthebig
peopletofollowtherulestheyimposeonthelittlepeople,otherwisemoreoutburstsoffury
againsttheelites,theexperts,etcwillfollowjustlikethisone.

ThedifferencebetweenBulloughandthe52percentofBritishvoterswhobackedBrexitisthatBulloughthinksthis
kindofprogressispossible.Amajorityofhiscompatriotsdonot.

WhyamIwritingaboutthisinaRussiablog?BecauseIseethiseverydaywhenIlookatRussia.WhenAndrew
WilsonfirstwroteaboutvirtualpoliticsaboutthefakingofdemocracyinRussiaandUkraineinthe2000she
wasdescribingpoliticiansbehavingexactlythewayFarageetal(butalsoDavidCameronwhenitsuitedhispurpose)
dobusiness:inventionanddissimulation,spectacleandemptypopulism.Thisismadepossiblenotbecausepeople
arestupidandthuseasytofool,butbecausetheyhavestoppedcaring.Andtheyhavestoppedcaring,becausethey
haveceasedtobelievethatthestate,astheembodimentofthepoliticalcommunity,candoanythingforthem.

WhenPeterPomerantsevsummedupRussianpoliticalculturewiththeepithetnothingistrueandeverythingis
possible,hegotitbackwards.Threedecadesofinstitutionaldecayandcollapse,ofsocial,politicalandeconomic
dislocationhavetaughtpost-Sovietcitizensthatthereisvalueonlyintheprivate,thatthestatecannotandwillnot
workforthem,andsotheseekingandfindingofcommonalitytheinvestmentinthepublicthatisrequiredforany
politicalcommunitytofunctionisafoolserrand.Becausenopublicfutureispossible,anyprivateliecan
becomethetruth.

ThesamedaythatBulloughwroteaboutBritain,AlexanderKolyandr,aMuscovitefriendofminehadthistosay
aboutRussia:

Theftandlying,togetherwithpridetheideathatthisisthewayeveryonedoesitandsoyou
shouldntbeafoolthatswhatcreatesthispervasivecorruptionandcausesittoflowerlikea
tropicalrainforest.

Oneofmyfriendsjustcouldntgetherheadaroundtheideathatitmightbewrongtomoochoff
oftheneighborsWiFi,whileanotheragreatloverofCultureandLiteraturehappilystole
fromthestatebudget,because,youknow,otherwisesomeoneelsewouldhavegottenthemoney,
andsheneedsitmore,afterallherparentsaresickandshedoesnthaveahusband.

ThereasonwhyUkrainelostCrimeaandapieceoftheDonbaswaspreciselythis,asystemof
corruptionfromtoptobottom,frompresidentsandparliamentarianstoordinarycitizens,rolling
backtheirelectricmeters.That,plusprideandlies.

Inmyunderstanding,itwaspreciselythisthatledtothedeathofthosechildrenonthelake.All
ofthisIcanbreakthosestupidrules,everyoneelsedoesit,Idontwanttomissout,betterme
thansomeoneelse,wellfixitallonpaper.

Theft,liesandpride.Anyofthetwowillcreatetheother.Alltogether,theykill.

InBritainandtheUS,asinRussia,thecriticalpoliticalwatershedisntbetweenleftandright,betweeninformedand
ignorant,betweennationalistandinternationationalist,butbetweenthosewho,likeBullough,believethatadifferent
futureispossible,andthose,likethe17millionBritishvoterswhotickedtheleavebox,forwhomthatbeliefislost.

Andbecauseitisamatterofbelief,noamountofpatientlyexplainingthefacts,noamountofrationaldebate,will
carrytheday.Faithinthepublic,inthecommonwealth,mustberestored.TheSovietUniondidnotchooseto
collapse,buttheWestisnowbeginningtopaythepriceforcastingitsowncitizensadriftasinofcommissionfor
whichtherewillbenoeasyindulgence.Leadersandcitizenswhostillbelievemustfightforandwinanew,proactive
agenda,inwhichthestatebuildsbothpublicandprivateprosperity,ratherthangivingstrugglingcitizensnothingmore
thanafree-marketsmileandanausterepatontheback.

ThealternativeisthepoliticsofPutin,ofBrexitand,yes,ofDonaldTrump.Getusedtoit.
From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 06/27/201610:08:25PM
To: RobertOtto<OttoRC@state.gov>
BCc: swallen@1scom.netchris.bort@gmail.comnaterey80@gmail.comdonald.jensen8@gmail.com
Subject: NezGazontheMeaningofBelykh(deprivingtheoppositionofatrump?ruiningimageoftherulingeliteradicalization)

http://www.ng.ru/editorial/2016-06-28/2_red.html

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From: MartinDewhirst<martin.dewhirst@googlemail.com>
Senttime: 06/27/201603:17:12PM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Subject: Re:"RussiaisharassingUSDIPLOMATSalloverEurope,"washingtonpost.com,6/27

Forwhatit'sworth,IthinkObamaandespeciallyKerryhaveforalong
timebeentoopreemptivelycringingtoPutin.Putin,I'msure,seesthis
asweaknessandbecomesmoreaggressiveandlesscooperative.It's
counter-productivetobesoaccommodatingtopeoplelikeVVP.
M.

On27/06/201620:12,RobertOttowrote:
>
>Relationsbetweenthetwosideshavedeterioratedtodangerouslevels.
>ItsintheU.S.nationalinteresttoexplorebetterrelationswith
>Russiafromapositionofstrength,somethingthatwillrequireboth
>patienceandrealisminacknowledgingthattheeffortmaynotsucceed.
>IfMoscowrefusestooblige,Washingtonshoulddowhateverisnecessary
>toprotectitsinterests.Sincethisislikelytoberiskyandcostly,
>itshouldnotbeAmericasfirstchoice.
>
>>OnJun27,2016,at1:36PM,JohnBDunlop>>wrote:
>>
>>
>>
>>*From:*JohnBDunlop
>>*Sent:*Monday,June27,201610:37AM
>>*To:*howard@jamestown.org
>>*Cc:*paul.goble@gmail.com
>>'waz2102@caa.columbia.edu'
>>*Subject:*"RussiaisharassingUSDIPLOMATSallover
>>Europe,"washingtonpost.com,6/27
>>
>>And:RussianspiesapparentlykilledaUSDIPLOMATsDOG,slate.com
>>,6/27
>>
>>And:SNOWDENdenouncesRussiasunjustifiableSURVEILLANCE
>>bill,telegraph.co.uk,6/27
>>
>>And:TheDumasBIGBROTHERlegislationkillsRussiasInternet
>>companiesandhurtsordinaryWebusers,Meduza.io,6/27[Englishedition]
>>
>>And:Russianoppositiongovernor[NIKITABELYKH]arrestedfor
>>corruptionclaimsinnocence,themsocowtimes.com
>>,6/27
>>
>>And:AndreiPIONTKOVSKII,AJUNTAofthetransition
>>period,http://echo.msk.ru/blog/piontkovsky_a/1791482-echo/
>>
>>RelatesthearrestoftheGovernorBelykhtotheintensepower
>>struggleatthetopinRussia.
>>
>>And:VOLODINandKADYROVwillcompeteintheStateDumaelections
>>fromUnited
>>Russia,http://www.nvoayagazeta.ru/comments/736231.html?print=1
>>
>>And:OneofTRUMPstwoleadingRussiaspecialists,DmitriSIMES
>>[identifiedbyPiontkovskiiasaRussianasset],issuesawarning:
>>RussiaandAmerica:DestinedforConflict?nationalinterest.org
>>,6/27
>>
>>And:POROSHENKOtravelstoBrusselstodiscussBREXITimpactonEU
>>rleationswithUkraine,unian.info,6/27
>
From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 06/27/201612:12:20PM
To: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Cc: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Subject: Re:"RussiaisharassingUSDIPLOMATSalloverEurope,"washingtonpost.com,6/27

Relationsbetweenthetwosideshavedeterioratedtodangerouslevels.ItsintheU.S.national
interesttoexplorebetterrelationswithRussiafromapositionofstrength,somethingthatwill
requirebothpatienceandrealisminacknowledgingthattheeffortmaynotsucceed.IfMoscow
refusestooblige,Washingtonshoulddowhateverisnecessarytoprotectitsinterests.Sincethisis
likelytoberiskyandcostly,itshouldnotbeAmericasfirstchoice.

OnJun27,2016,at1:36PM,JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>wrote:



From:JohnBDunlop
Sent:Monday,June27,201610:37AM
To:howard@jamestown.org
Cc:paul.goble@gmail.com'waz2102@caa.columbia.edu'
Subject:"RussiaisharassingUSDIPLOMATSalloverEurope,"washingtonpost.com,6/27

And:RussianspiesapparentlykilledaUSDIPLOMATsDOG,slate.com,6/27

And:SNOWDENdenouncesRussiasunjustifiableSURVEILLANCEbill,telegraph.co.uk,
6/27

And:TheDumasBIGBROTHERlegislationkillsRussiasInternetcompaniesandhurts
ordinaryWebusers,Meduza.io,6/27[Englishedition]

And:Russianoppositiongovernor[NIKITABELYKH]arrestedforcorruptionclaims
innocence,themsocowtimes.com,6/27

And:AndreiPIONTKOVSKII,AJUNTAofthetransition
period,http://echo.msk.ru/blog/piontkovsky_a/1791482echo/

RelatesthearrestoftheGovernorBelykhtotheintensepowerstruggleatthetopinRussia.

And:VOLODINandKADYROVwillcompeteintheStateDumaelectionsfromUnited
Russia,http://www.nvoayagazeta.ru/comments/736231.html?print=1

And:OneofTRUMPstwoleadingRussiaspecialists,DmitriSIMES[identifiedby
PiontkovskiiasaRussianasset],issuesawarning:RussiaandAmerica:Destinedfor
Conflict?nationalinterest.org,6/27

And:POROSHENKOtravelstoBrusselstodiscussBREXITimpactonEUrleationswith
Ukraine,unian.info,6/27
From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 06/27/201610:36:56AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: FW:"RussiaisharassingUSDIPLOMATSalloverEurope,"washingtonpost.com,6/27

From:JohnBDunlop
Sent:Monday,June27,201610:37AM
To:howard@jamestown.org
Cc:paul.goble@gmail.com'waz2102@caa.columbia.edu'
Subject:"RussiaisharassingUSDIPLOMATSalloverEurope,"washingtonpost.com,6/27

And:RussianspiesapparentlykilledaUSDIPLOMATsDOG,slate.com,6/27

And:SNOWDENdenouncesRussiasunjustifiableSURVEILLANCEbill,telegraph.co.uk,6/27

And:TheDumasBIGBROTHERlegislationkillsRussiasInternetcompaniesandhurtsordinaryWeb
users,Meduza.io,6/27[Englishedition]

And:Russianoppositiongovernor[NIKITABELYKH]arrestedforcorruptionclaimsinnocence,
themsocowtimes.com,6/27

And:AndreiPIONTKOVSKII,AJUNTAofthetransitionperiod,
http://echo.msk.ru/blog/piontkovsky_a/1791482echo/

RelatesthearrestoftheGovernorBelykhtotheintensepowerstruggleatthetopinRussia.

And:VOLODINandKADYROVwillcompeteintheStateDumaelectionsfromUnitedRussia,
http://www.nvoayagazeta.ru/comments/736231.html?print=1

And:OneofTRUMPstwoleadingRussiaspecialists,DmitriSIMES[identifiedbyPiontkovskiiasa
Russianasset],issuesawarning:RussiaandAmerica:DestinedforConflict?nationalinterest.org,
6/27

And:POROSHENKOtravelstoBrusselstodiscussBREXITimpactonEUrleationswithUkraine,
unian.info,6/27
From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 06/26/201610:03:53AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
Subject: FW:"DespiteRussia'ssomberfacade,glimpsesofJOYoverEUvote:EagertofindEuropeweaker,"nytimes.com,6/26

From:JohnBDunlop
Sent:Sunday,June26,201610:04AM
To:'howard@jamestown.org'
Cc:'paul.goble@gmail.com''waz2102@caa.columbia.edu'
Subject:"DespiteRussia'ssomberfacade,glimpsesofJOYoverEUvote:EagertofindEuropeweaker,"nytimes.com,6/26

And:MichaelMcFAUL,HowBREXITisawinforPUTIN,oped,WashingtonPost,6/25

And:RussiaREVELSinBREXITvote,http://www.rferl.org/articleprintview/27817778.html

And:POROSHENKOcomesunderENEMYFIREinDonbas,unian.info,6/26/16

And:AndreiPIONTKOVSKII,Theregimehasenteredastageofcoupdetats,http://www.kasparov.ru/material.php?
id=576E441AD5B89

InalengthyinterviewPiontkovskiidiscusses,interalia,thepowerstruggleatthetopinRussia,theassassinationofNemtsov,
andallegedRussianassetsworkingfortheTRUMPcampaign

And:TheinvestigationhasturnedoverthecaseofNemtsovsmurdertotheRussianGeneralProcuracy:
http://ww.novayagazeta.ru/inquests/73541.html?print=1

Themastermindbehindthekillingaccordingtotheinvestigation?Itwasachauffeurbutanextraordinarilywealthyone.
From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 06/22/201601:12:23PM
To: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Cc: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Re:IsPutinseekingtokinockHillaryCLINTONoutofthepresidentialrace?"ClintonFoundationsaidtobeBREACHEDbyRussian
Subject:
HACKERS,"bloomberg.com,6/27

ThismorningsKommersantclaimedthefinalvotewasscheduledfor6/24,butittookplacetoday.

ThedocumentnowgoestotheFederationCouncil

OnJun22,2016,at12:55PM,JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>wrote:



From:JohnBDunlop
Sent:Wednesday,June22,20169:39AM
To:howard@jamestown.org
Cc:paul.goble@gmail.com'waz2102@caa.columbia.edu'
Subject:IsPutinseekingtokinockHillaryCLINTONoutofthepresidentialrace?"ClintonFoundationsaidtobeBREACHED
byRussianHACKERS,"bloomberg.com,6/27

TheClintonFoundationwasamongtheorganizationsbreachedbysuspectedRussian
hackersinadragnetoftheUSpoliticalapparatusaheadoftheNovemberelection,
accordingtothreepeoplefamiliarwiththematter.Theattacksofthefoundationsnetwork,
aswellasthoseoftheDemocraticPartyandHillaryClintonspresidentialcampaign,
compoundconcernsaboutherdigitalsecurityTheRepublicanPartyandtheTrump
campaignhavebeenmostlysilentonthecomputerattacks.

And:TheStateDumahasadoptedafinalversionoflawscreatingtheNATIONAL
GUARD:http://www.rosbalt.ru/russia/2016/0622/1525484.html[Avoteonthe
controversialArticle21isscheduledforJune24]

And:RussiaisPREPARINGFORWAR,KommersantcitesamajorJunereportby
CanadianIntelligence:kommersant.ru,6/21

And:FortheCanadianIntelligenceServiceReport,see2018SecurityOutlookPotential
RisksandThreats,www.csis.sers.gc.ca,June2016ChapterThreeisentitled:Russian
Futuresto2018.

And:[Victoria]NULANDarrivesinKyiv[today]todiscussMINSKACCORDS,unian.info,
6/22

And:USCommander[Lt.GeneralBenHodges]:NATOcouldntstopRussianattackon
BALTICS,http://rferl.org/articlprintview/27813839.html

And:PavelFELGENHAUER,WhatistheHomeland[i.e.,Russia]defendingitself
against?http://www.novayagazeta.ru/politics/273557.html?print=1

And:ThespecialoperationsoftheSILOVIKIoftheKremlinchef[EvgeniiPRIGOZHIN]
againstdisloyalPetersburgjournalistsandbloggers,Fontanka.ru,reposted
at:http://www.compromat.ru/page_37036.htm

And:WhatsgoingonatRussiasKGBSUCCESSOR?InterviewwithAndreiSOLDATOV
ofAgentua.ru,meduza.io,6/21[InEnglish]

And:PutinpraisesDumaforworktointegrateCRIMEA,themsocowtimes.com,6/22
From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 06/25/201607:22:56AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:[EARLYWEEKENDREADINGROOM---MUSTREADORNOTEITEMS][DavidK]AfterBrexit,JoyinMoscow[JanuszB]Bye-ByeBritain..[PB]UK'sPointofNoReturnAftertheBrexit,What'sNextforDefense?
Subject:
[ODDD]ALLITEMSWORTHNOTINGCAREFULLY.[MOJO]H...

From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Friday,June24,20162:04PM
Subject:Fwd:[EARLYWEEKENDREADINGROOM---MUSTREADORNOTEITEMS][DavidK]AfterBrexit,JoyinMoscow[JanuszB]Bye-ByeBritain..[PB]UK'sPointofNoReturnAftertheBrexit,What'sNextfor
Defense?[ODDD]ALLITEMSWORTHNOTINGCAREFULLY.[MOJO]H...

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Date:Fri,Jun24,2016at5:03PM
Subject:[EARLYWEEKENDREADINGROOM---MUSTREADORNOTEITEMS][DavidK]AfterBrexit,JoyinMoscow[JanuszB]Bye-ByeBritain..[PB]UK'sPointofNoReturnAfter
theBrexit,What'sNextforDefense?[ODDD]ALLITEMSWORTHNOTINGCAREFULLY.[MOJO]HowtheFSBBreaksPOWs[CherM]SenateandtheDarnedRURocketEngines
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:DavidKramer<David.J.Kramer@asu.edu>
Date:Fri,Jun24,2016at4:21PM
Subject:Walter-forwhatit'sworth...
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

http://www.mccaininstitute.org/newsroom/blog/after-brexit-joy-in-moscow

AfterBrexit,JoyinMoscow
byDavidJ.KrameronFri,June24,2016

HumanRightsandDemocracyNationalSecurity

OnecanalmostheartheclinkingofvodkaglassesintheKremlin.AmongthosehappiestwithyesterdaysBrexitvoteareRussianleaderswhocouldnothavedoneabetterjobof
dividinganddistractingEuropethanBritishvotersthemselvesdid.

Foryears,VladimirPutinandhisminionshavesoughttosowdivisionsinEurope.TheyprovidemoneydirectlyinsomecasesseeMarineLePeninFranceortheirpropaganda
throughRTandSputnikanddososurreptitiouslyinotherstoinfluenceEuropeaneliteandbroaderpublicopinion.

Theoutcomeofyesterdaysvote,however,hadlittletodowithRussianinfluenceBritshaveonlythemselvestoblame.ButleadersinMoscowareveryhappy.Vladimir
Zhirinovsky,headofRussia'sLiberalDemocraticParty(whichisneitherliberalnordemocratic),describedBritsdecisionasagreatactofbravery.

AtnextweeksEuropeanleaderssummit,preciouslittlewillbesaidaboutRussiasongoingaggressionagainstUkraineandallfocuswillbeonthefalloutoftheUKsexitfromthe
EU.WhileEuropeanambassadorstotheEUagreedonrenewingsanctionsagainstRussiaforitsinvasionofUkraineearlierthisweek,Italyhasinsistedthatleaderstakeupthe
issuenextweekattheirmeeting.Renewalofsanctionsstillseemslikelybutafteryesterdaysreferendum,anythingispossible,especiallysincetheUKhasbeenafirmadvocate
forEUsanctionsagainstRussia,andPrimeMinisterDavidCameronwillbeinnopositiontoleadthechargenextweekonthisissue.

YesterdaysvotewillalsothrowamonkeywrenchintotheNATOsummit,whichwillbeheldinWarsawJuly8-9.NATOSecretaryGeneralJensStoltenbergquicklycameoutto
declarethattheUKspositioninNATOwillremainunchanged.Thatsundoubtedlytrue,butBritishvotershavecastapallovernotjusttheEUbutNATO,too,becausethey
havemadeitokaytopullonthestrings,sotospeak,ofEuro-atlanticinstitutions.

AndnowthattheBritshavedoneit,otherEuro-skepticpartiesandleadersinEuropewillstartaskingtodothesamething.Bulgaria,forexample,hassaiditwantsnopartof
NATOactivitiesintheBlackSea.GermanForeignMinisterFrank-WalterSteinmeierblastedNATOforengaginginsabre-rattlingandwarmongeringforitsrecentexercisesin
Poland.

InjoiningsuchinstitutionsasNATOandtheEU,countriescannottreatthemasiforderingfromarestaurantmenupickingwhattheywantandrejectingwhattheydontlike.
ThereisnodoubtthattheEUhasmanyproblemstofixNATO,too,hasissuesitneedstoaddress.Butexitingfromtheseorganizationsisunlikelytochangethemforthebetter.

FollowingBritain,NATO,Schengenandtheeurowillcollapse,RussiasZhirinovskywentontosay.LonglivetheRussianrubleandthedevelopmentofrelationswithallthe
democraticcountriesofEurope!MoscowMayorSergeiSobyanintweetedthatwithouttheU.K.,therewillbenobodyintheEUtodefendsanctionsagainstRussiasozealously.
Eveniftheyarewrong,thecelebrationinMoscowwithyesterdaysoutcomeshouldgiveBrexitsupportersseriouspause.

----------Forwardedmessage----------

From:JanuszBugajski<jbugajski.usa@gmail.com>
Date:Fri,Jun24,2016at12:09PM
Subject:ByeByeBritain
To:JanuszBugajski<jbugajski.usa@gmail.com>
CEPA
mentionedyou.
Reply


Jun24

CEPA
@cepa


CEPA's@JBugajskiUSAreacts
to#Brexit.goo.gl/z63gCf#BrexitVote

Viewconversation

Settings|Help|Opt-out|Downloadapp

Twitter,Inc.1355MarketStreet,Suite900SanFrancisco,CA94103

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:PeterBorisow<apb.uke@earthlink.net>
Date:Fri,Jun24,2016at2:47PM
Subject:BritainsPointofNoReturn|ForeignAffairs
To:"Waz(Columbia)"<waz2102@columbia.edu>

Notablequoteonthereferendum:"RatherthanagreatdisplayofBritishdemocracy,thecampaignhasturnedouttobeanundignifiedmudslingingcontestfeaturingoutrightlies,alarmistdoomsayersand
blatantxenophobia."Soundfamiliar?

http://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-kingdom/2016-06-21/britain-s-point-no-return?cid=emc-brexit_reading_subs-content-
062416&sp_mid=51687891&sp_rid=YXBiLnVrZUBlYXJ0aGxpbmsubmV0S0&spMailingID=51687891&spUserID=ODIwODcyNzAyMjkS1&spJobID=943562025&spReportId=OTQzNTYyMDI1S0

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:PeterBorisow<apb.uke@earthlink.net>
Date:Fri,Jun24,2016at1:01PM
Subject:AftertheBrexit,What'sNextforDefense?
To:"Waz(Columbia)"<waz2102@columbia.edu>

Here'soneearlyview.

http://www.defensenews.com/story/defense/2016/06/24/after-brexit-whats-next-defense/86333926/?
utm_source=Sailthru&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Defense%20Breaking%206.24.16&utm_term=Editorial%20-%20Breaking%20News

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:Deychak,Orest<Orest.Deychak@mail.house.gov>
Date:Fri,Jun24,2016at10:32AM
Subject:Ukraine:USEMoscow,NYT(2),RFE/RL(2),Economist
To:"Deychak,Orest"<Orest.Deychak@mail.house.gov>

USEmbassyMoscow
ReadoutofAssistantSecretaryVictoriaNuland'sJune23VisittoMoscow

June24,2016

http://moscow.usembassy.gov/nuland-06242016.html

AssistantSecretaryofStateforEuropeanandEurasianAffairsVictoriaNulandandNSCSeniorDirectorsCelesteWallanderandCharlesKupchanvisitedMoscowJune23forconsultationswithRussian
officialsonthesituationineasternUkraineandnextstepstoimplementtheMinskagreementsinsupportoftheNormandycountries.TheRussiandelegationwasledbyPresidentialAdministrationSenior
AdvisorVladislavSurkov.

Thediscussionswereverydetailed,thoroughandconstructive.TheyfocusedheavilyonthesecurityaspectsofMinsk,includinghowtoaccelerateafullceasefire,heavyweaponswithdrawalandfullOSCE
accesstoEasternUkraine.TheyalsoreviewedtheongoingworkonthepoliticalandhumanitarianaspectsoftheMinsk,insupportoftheNormandyprocess.

TheNewYorkTimes(2)
Russia'sPutinSaysDoesn'tExpectBrexittoInfluenceEUSanctionsonRussia

ByREUTERSJUNE24,2016,9:06A.M.E.D.T.

Continuereadingthemainstory

TASHKENTRussianPresidentVladimirPutinsaidonFridayhedidnotexpectBritain'svotetoleavetheEuropeanUnionwouldinfluencetheeconomicsanctionsimposedonRussiabytheEU.

PutinsaidthathewasreadyfordialoguewiththeEU,butthekeytoresolvingthesanctionsproblemliedwiththeleadershipofUkraine,whichhesaidshouldimplementitscommitmentswithintheMinsk
peacedeal.

(ReportingbyDenisDyomkinWritingbyDmitrySolovyovEditingbyAlexanderWinning)

TheNewYorkTimes
EUtoBeStrongActoronWorldStageAfterBrexit:EUForeignPolicyHead

ByREUTERSJUNE24,2016,9:24A.M.E.D.T.

Continuereadingthemainstory

BRUSSELSTheEuropeanUnionwillcontinueasanimportantplayerontheworldstagedespiteBritishpeoplehavingvotedtoleavetheEUinareferendum,theEU'sforeignpolicychiefsaidonFriday.

"Wewillcontinuetoactasaforceforpeace,aproviderofsecurity,andastaunchsupporterofinternationalcooperationandmultilateralism,"FedericaMogherinisaid,addingsheregrettedBritain'sdecision
toleave.

ApermanentmemberoftheUnitedNationsSecurityCouncilandoneoftheEuropeanUnion'stwomainmilitarypowers,Britainhasbeenoneofthemostvocalmembersofthe28-memberblocincallingfor
sanctionsagainstRussiainthewakeoftheconflictineasternUkraine.

(ReportingbyRobert-JanBartunekeditingbyPhilipBlenkinsop)

RFE/RL
UkraineLinksEUUnityToRussiaSanctionsMoldovaCommittedToJoiningEU

http://www.rferl.org/content/ukraine-moldova-brexit-vote-reactions/27817680.html

UkrainianPresidentPetroPoroshenkohassaidintheaftermathofBritain'svotetoleavetheEuropeanUnionthathe"expectsthesanctionsagainstRussiaasacountry-aggressor"tobeextended.

OnJune24,PoroshenkolinkedEuropeanunitytothesanctionsthatBrusselshasimposedagainstRussiaforitsroleinUkraine'scrisis.

Poroshenkosaid,"Today,thecurrentchallengefortheEuropeanUnionistofindawaytotheheartsofEuroskepticssoasnottoallowasinglechancetotheopponentsoftheEurointegrationproject."

In2014,despitepressurefromRussia,UkrainesignedanAssociationAgreementwiththeEUaspartofitsbidtoeventuallyjointhebloc.

Meanwhile,Moldova'spro-EUPrimeMinisterPavelFiliponJune24calledBritain'svotetoleavetheEUa"saddayforEurope."

FilipsaidMoldovaremainedcommittedtojoiningtheEU,"despitetheresultintheU.K.,becausewetrusttheEUasasuccessfulproject."

MoldovaalsosignedanAssociationAgreementwiththeEUin2014.

BasedonreportingbyAP,Reuters,andUnimedia.md

RFE/RL
June24,2016

UkraineArrestsFormerRiotPoliceForAllegedRoleInMaidanKillings
http://www.rferl.org/content/ukraine-former-berkut-arrested-maidan-killings-2014/27817717.html

Ukrainianauthoritieshavearrestedfourformerofficersofthe"Berkut"riotpolicefortheirallegedroleintheviolentdispersalofpro-EuropeanprotestersinKyivinearly2014.

LarysaSarhan,aspokeswomanforUkraine'sProsecutor-General'sOffice,saidonJune24thatthefoursuspectswereservingonUkraine'snationalpoliceforceatthetimeoftheirarrestonJune23.

ThefourareallegedtohaveusedviolentforcetodisperseprotestersinKyivonFebruary18,2014,duringthefinaldaysofpro-RussiaformerPresidentViktorYanukovych'srule.

Theyhavebeenchargedwithabuseofpower,attemptedmurder,andillegallypreventingcitizensfromgatheringanddemonstrating.

Oneofthesuspectswasalsochargedwiththepremeditatedmurderofmorethanoneperson.

MorethanahundredpeoplewerekilledinandaroundKyivscentralIndependenceSquare,knownastheMaidan,fromFebruary18to20,2014.

Thedeathscameaftermonths-longoppositionproteststhatpromptedYanukovychtofleeUkraineinlateFebruary--adeparturethatledparliamenttovoteforhisremovalongroundsthathewasunableto
fulfillhisduties.

BasedonreportingbyUNIANandInterfax

TheEconomist
TheEUsRussiasanctions

Smallcarrot,mediumstick

BlockinginvestmenthasonlyslightlyrestrainedRussia

http://www.economist.com/news/europe/21701184-blocking-investment-has-only-slightly-restrained-russia-small-carrot-medium-stick

Jun25th2016|STPETERSBURGANDWASHINGTON,DC|Fromtheprintedition

ATlastweeksStPetersburgInternationalEconomicForum,VladimirPutinsflagshipeconomicconference,apairofguestsraisedRussiasincreasinglyferventhopesforarapprochementwiththeEuropean
Union.MatteoRenzi,Italysprimeminister,regaledthecrowdwithreferencestosharedculturalhistory.TheEuropeanCommissionspresident,Jean-ClaudeJuncker,chidedRussiaforitsaggressionin
Ukraine,butalsospokeofbuildingbridges.Nonetheless,whenthesanctionscomeupforre-approvalattheendofthismonth,theEUlookssettoextendthetoughestonesuntilJanuary2017.

TheEUisholdingthelineonsanctionswithstrongbackingfromGermany,despitetheusualsquabbling.Butquestionsremainabouttheireffectiveness.SomeWesterncriticssaythesanctionsmerelyallow
AmericanandEuropeangovernmentstoshowthattheyaredoingsomething,withoutchangingRussiasbehaviourorhelpingtostabiliseUkraine.

AmericandiplomatsarguethatthesanctionsdeterredRussiafromseizingmoreUkrainianterritoryin2014.Infact,newoffensiveswerelaunchedlongafterthesanctionswereinplace.Moreimportantly,
RussiasgoalintheDonbas,unlikeinCrimea,wasnottoseizeterritory.Rather,itsoughttodestabiliseUkraine,showingbothitsownpeopleandotherformerSovietrepublicsthatanyrevoltwouldbe
followedbybloodshed.

OnegoalofmaintainingsanctionsnowistokeepuppressuretoimplementtheMinskpeaceaccordforeasternUkraine.YetRussiahasdonelittletoendtheconflict.Americaschiefdiplomatontheissue,
VictoriaNuland,ismeetingofficialsinKievandMoscowthisweek,buttheprocessremainsfrozen.TheMinskformat,saysoneseniorAmericanofficial,providesRussiawithaframeworktochangeits
policy.ButtheKremlinshowsnosignofdoingso.

AnotherstatedpurposeofthesanctionsistoconvinceMrPutinsinnercircletopersuadehimtomoderatehispolicies.YetassetandtravelbansoninfluentialindividualshaveonlyreinforcedRussiasfortress
mentality.Bansontechnologytransfersmayhurttheoilindustryinthelongrun,buttheyhaveyettobite:Russianoilfirmsreportedrecordoutputin2015.

Mosteconomistsagreethatthesanctionsmatterfarlessthanthecollapseinoilprices.EvseyGurvichandIlyaPrilepskyofMoscowsEconomicExpertGroupestimatethatcheaperoilcosttheRussian
economymorethanthreetimeswhatsanctionsdid.Theroublesperformanceagainstthedollartracksglobaloilpricesithashadlittlecorrelationwithsanctions.

ThemosteffectivesanctionsarethoserestrictinglendingtokeyRussianbanksandcompanies.Theirdeliberatevaguenesshasarippleeffect:investorsrefusetofinanceevenfirmsthatarenotdirectlynamed.
Oneforeignbankscompliancedepartmentapprovedonlyoneof20dealsitclosed.EvenChineselenders,whoMoscowhopedwouldhelpfillthevacuumleftbytheWest,havebeenreluctant.TheRussian
government,whichdoesnotfalldirectlyundersanctions,hadtroubleraisingfundslastmonthduringitsfirstbondofferingsince2013,asWesterngovernmentspressuredbanksnottotakepart.TheKremlin
hasbeenpushingimportsubstitution,inpartbyimposingitsowncounter-sanctionsimportbansonWesternfood.Buttheresultshavebeenextremelylimited,mainlytoagriculture.

WhattheRussianeconomyreallyneedsisinvestment.Foreigndirectinvestmenthascollapsed(seechart).YetevensanctionsreliefmightnotreviveRussia.TheWorldBankreckonsthatliftingthemwould
provideonlya0.9%boosttoGDPin2017.TheireffectonRussianpolicymaybeparadoxical:thewarinUkrainewaspartlyMrPutinsanswertoaslowingeconomyathome.Mostimportantly,theKremlin
stillbelievesthatUkrainianineptitude,EuropeandivisionsoranelectoralvictorybyDonaldTrumpcouldbringanendtosanctionsallbythemselves.WhileRussiaentertainssuchhopes,sanctionsalonewill
nottameitsbehaviour.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:<jm200p@mac.com>
Date:Fri,Jun24,2016at1:07PM
Subject:HowtheFSBbreaksprisoners[ED:InterviewwithtwoUAPOWs]
To:

perhaps of interest

http://euromaidanpress.com/2016/06/18/afanasyev-and-soloshenko-how-the-fsb-breaks-prisoners/

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:BardUkrainka<seanachie_holodonika@icloud.com>
Date:Fri,Jun24,2016at3:12PM
Subject:SenateFindsCompromiseonRussianRocketEngines
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

CheckoutthisarticlefromDefenseNews:

SenateFindsCompromiseonRussianRocketEngines

http://defnews.ly/1tpeyMt

From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 06/22/201609:55:28AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:IsPutinseekingtokinockHillaryCLINTONoutofthepresidentialrace?"ClintonFoundationsaidtobeBREACHEDbyRussian
Subject:
HACKERS,"bloomberg.com,6/27

From:JohnBDunlop
Sent:Wednesday,June22,20169:39AM
To:howard@jamestown.org
Cc:paul.goble@gmail.com'waz2102@caa.columbia.edu'
Subject:IsPutinseekingtokinockHillaryCLINTONoutofthepresidentialrace?"ClintonFoundationsaidtobeBREACHEDbyRussian
HACKERS,"bloomberg.com,6/27

TheClintonFoundationwasamongtheorganizationsbreachedbysuspectedRussianhackersina
dragnetoftheUSpoliticalapparatusaheadoftheNovemberelection,accordingtothreepeople
familiarwiththematter.Theattacksofthefoundationsnetwork,aswellasthoseoftheDemocratic
PartyandHillaryClintonspresidentialcampaign,compoundconcernsaboutherdigitalsecurityThe
RepublicanPartyandtheTrumpcampaignhavebeenmostlysilentonthecomputerattacks.

And:TheStateDumahasadoptedafinalversionoflawscreatingtheNATIONALGUARD:
http://www.rosbalt.ru/russia/2016/0622/1525484.html[AvoteonthecontroversialArticle21is
scheduledforJune24]

And:RussiaisPREPARINGFORWAR,KommersantcitesamajorJunereportbyCanadian
Intelligence:kommersant.ru,6/21

And:FortheCanadianIntelligenceServiceReport,see2018SecurityOutlookPotentialRisksand
Threats,www.csis.sers.gc.ca,June2016ChapterThreeisentitled:RussianFuturesto2018.

And:[Victoria]NULANDarrivesinKyiv[today]todiscussMINSKACCORDS,unian.info,6/22

And:USCommander[Lt.GeneralBenHodges]:NATOcouldntstopRussianattackonBALTICS,
http://rferl.org/articlprintview/27813839.html

And:PavelFELGENHAUER,WhatistheHomeland[i.e.,Russia]defendingitselfagainst?
http://www.novayagazeta.ru/politics/273557.html?print=1

And:ThespecialoperationsoftheSILOVIKIoftheKremlinchef[EvgeniiPRIGOZHIN]against
disloyalPetersburgjournalistsandbloggers,Fontanka.ru,repostedat:
http://www.compromat.ru/page_37036.htm

And:WhatsgoingonatRussiasKGBSUCCESSOR?InterviewwithAndreiSOLDATOVofAgentua.ru,
meduza.io,6/21[InEnglish]

And:PutinpraisesDumaforworktointegrateCRIMEA,themsocowtimes.com,6/22
From: Gottemoeller,RoseE<GottemoellerRE@state.gov>
Senttime: 06/20/201601:37:05PM
To: Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>Handler,JoshuaM<HandlerJM@state.gov>
Cc: Otto,Robert<OttoRC@state.gov>
Subject: RE:MD,ABM,INF,PGS-Putin'sCommentsattheSt.PeteEconomicForumonFriday-TranscriptfromKremlinWebsite

Yes, I read both in Russian. Was interested in the lack of nuclear saber rattling and other threats, for
a change. Thoughtful commentaryif from Russian perspective. RG

From:Handler,JoshuaM
Sent:Monday,June20,20164:01PM
To:Gottemoeller,RoseE'Bob'
Cc:Otto,Robert
Subject:RE:MD,ABM,INF,PGS-Putin'sCommentsattheSt.PeteEconomicForumonFriday-TranscriptfromKremlinWebsite

Rose,YesinthesensetheyarefromtheKremlinwebsiteandseeminglyfollowtheRussiantranscript.WhethertheKremlins
translationgoteverynuanceoftheoriginalRussianIcantquitesay,butBobsenttheexcerptsfrombothpresentationsinhisearlier
e-mail.Seeattached.Thanks,

ThisemailisUNCLASSIFIED.

From:Gottemoeller,RoseE
Sent:Monday,June20,20161:33PM
To:Handler,JoshuaM'Bob'
Subject:RE:MD,ABM,INF,PGS-Putin'sCommentsattheSt.PeteEconomicForumonFriday-TranscriptfromKremlinWebsite

Sorry, Josh, should have read on: are these complete translations? Thanks, R

From:Handler,JoshuaM
Sent:Monday,June20,20169:58AM
To:Gottemoeller,RoseEAVCManagersPlusAVC-ESA-DLAVC-ESC-DLAVC-NRRC-StaffAVC-Press-DLAVC-SSD-DLBallas,Spiro
Bell,AlexandraFBoggs,PhillipWBorges,ManoelaGBurgess,JoshuaCCarhart,RobertNJrCope,AaronMDean,PaulBDodge,
SimonPDoell,CynthiaDolliff,PhillipRDonoho,GideonTEUR-PRA-AVCEUR-RPM-PMD-DLEUR-RUS-POL-DLFaithful,FrederickL
Fetter,SteveA.EOP/OSTPGelman,JeffreyDGodfrey,AnthonyFGoldstein,StephanieEGreaney,BrianEHalupka,NicholasA
Handler,JoshuaMHolmes,StephanieEHornbostel,CharlesPJensen,DanaEJonWolfsthalKavalec,KathleenAKile,JeffreyK
Lacey,EdwardLawson,KevinJMikulsky,AlexJ(Geneva)Nelson,RobertWOtto,RobertPark,RebeccaC.Parrish,ScottDPearce,
StacyL(London)Phelan,DonnaARoraff,BrianRRuss,LauraW(London)Rusten,LynnFSmilansky,GeneSolomon,HowardT
(Vilnius)Spykerman,JohnDTarar,Humza(Zed)Tefft,JohnFterHaar,MiaFTierney,JenniferMTratensek,AlexanderWright,
JaneyF
Subject:MD,ABM,INF,PGS-Putin'sCommentsattheSt.PeteEconomicForumonFriday-TranscriptfromKremlinWebsite

PutinmaderemarksaboutmissiledefenseandstrategicstabilityintwovenuesattheSt.Petersburg
InternationalEconomicFormthatmadeheadlinesovertheweekend.

AtthePlenarysessioninresponsetoFareedZakariasquestionherelatedthenegativeconsequencesof
theU.S.withdrawingfromtheABMTreaty.Laterinameetingwithmembersoftheinternationalpresshe
elaboratedfurther,mentioninghowtheyfeltdeceivedbyUSactions,andtalkedaboutthepotential
deploymentof1,000kmoffensivemissilesintheAegisashore(thoughdidntmentionINFbyname)and
USPGSprograms.Hiscommentsareworthacloseread.Somepressstoriesmergedthereportingon
thetwoevents.SeehighlightsandRFE/RLarticlebelow.

InthePlenarysessionhealsospokeabouttheU.S.beingtheonlysuperpower,andhisviewsontheU.S.
Presidentialcandidates.Tackedonthelatterattheendasitisrevealing.LinkstoEnglishlanguage
transcriptonKremlinsiteareprovidedasthewholepresentationisworthaskim.Anynumberoftopics
ontheinternationalagendaarecovered.

Thanks,

PlenarysessionofStPetersburgInternationalEconomicForum
VladimirPutinspokeattheplenarysessionoftheStPetersburgInternationalEconomicForum.

June17,201616:20StPetersburg

Plenarysessionmoderator,CNNhostFareedZakaria:Thankyoutoallthreeofyou:twopresidents,one
primeminister,thoughinItaly,youareallowedtosayPresidentRenzialso.Bytheformatwehave
agreedupon,whatIwilldoiswewillbeginthisdiscussionfirstwithourhostpresident,PresidentPutin,
andthenIwillwidenthatconversationtoincludePrimeMinisterRenziandPresidentNazarbayev.We
startedalittlebitlate,sowewillgoalittlebitlonger.

PresidentPutin,letmeaskyouaverysimplequestion.Since2014,youhavehadEuropeanUnion
sanctionsandUSsanctionsagainstRussia.NATOhasannouncedjustthisweekthatitisgoingtobuildup
forcesinstatesthatborderRussia.Russiahasannounceditsownbuildup.Arewesettlingintoalow-
grade,lower-levelcoldwarbetweentheWestandRussia?

VladimirPutin:IdonotwanttobelievethatwearemovingtowardsanotherColdWar,andIamsure
nobodywantsthis.Wecertainlydonot.Thereisnoneedforthis.Themainlogicbehindinternational
relationsdevelopmentisthatnomatterhowdramaticitmightseem,itisnotthelogicofglobal
confrontation.Whatistherootoftheproblem?

Iwilltellyou.Iwillhavetotakeyoubackintime.AfterthecollapseoftheSovietUnion,weexpected
overallprosperityandoveralltrust.Unfortunately,Russiahadtofacenumerouschallenges,speaking
inmodernterms:economic,socialanddomesticpolicy.Wecameupagainstseparatism,radicalism,
aggressionofinternationalterror,becauseundoubtedlywewerefightingagainstAlQaedamilitants
intheCaucasus,itisanobviousfact,andtherecanbenosecondthoughtsaboutit.Butinsteadofsupport
fromourpartnersinourstrugglewiththeseproblems,wesadlycameacrosssomethingdifferentsupport
fortheseparatists.Weweretold,Wedonotacceptyourseparatistsatthetoppoliticallevel,only
atthetechnological.

Verywell.Weappreciateit.Butwealsosawinformationsupport,financialsupportandadministrative
backup.

Later,afterwetackledthoseproblems,wentthroughserioushardships,wecametofaceanotherthing.
TheSovietUnionwasnomoretheWarsawPacthadceasedtoexist.Butforsomereason,NATO
continuestoexpanditsinfrastructuretowardsRussiasborders.Itstartedlongbeforeyesterday.
Montenegroisbecominga[NATO]member.WhoisthreateningMontenegro?Yousee,ourpositionis
beingtotallyignored.
Another,equallyimportant,orperhaps,themostimportantissueistheunilateralwithdrawal[oftheUS]
fromtheABMTreaty.TheABMTreatywasonceconcludedbetweentheSovietUnionandtheUnited
Statesforagoodreason.TworegionswereallowedtostayMoscowandthesiteofUSICBMsilos.

Thetreatywasdesignedtoprovideastrategicbalanceintheworld.However,theyunilaterallyquit
thetreaty,sayinginafriendlymanner,Thisisnotaimedagainstyou.Youwanttodevelopyouroffensive
arms,andweassumeitisnotaimedagainstus.

Youknowwhytheysaidso?Itissimple:nobodyexpectedRussiaintheearly2000s,whenitwas
strugglingwithitsdomesticproblems,tornapartbyinternalconflicts,politicalandeconomicproblems,
torturedbyterrorists,torestoreitsdefencesector.Clearly,nobodyexpectedustobeabletomaintainour
arsenals,letalonehavenewstrategicweapons.Theythoughttheywouldbuilduptheirmissiledefence
forcesunilaterallywhileourarsenalswouldbeshrinking.

AllofthiswasdoneunderthepretextofcombattingtheIraniannuclearthreat.Whathasbecome
oftheIraniannuclearthreatnow?Thereisnone,buttheprojectcontinues.Thisisthewayitis,step
bystep,oneafteranother,andsoon.

Thentheybegantosupportallkindsofcolourrevolutions,includingtheso-calledArabSpring.They
ferventlysupportedit.Howmanypositivetakesdidwehearonwhatwasgoingon?Whatdiditleadto?
Chaos.

Iamnotinterestedinlayingblamenow.Isimplywanttosaythatifthispolicyofunilateralactionscontinues
andifstepsintheinternationalarenathatareverysensitivetotheinternationalcommunityarenot
coordinatedthensuchconsequencesareinevitable.Conversely,ifwelistentooneanotherandseekout
abalanceofinterests,thiswillnothappen.Yes,itisadifficultprocess,theprocessofreachingagreement,
butitistheonlypathtoacceptablesolutions.

Ibelievethatifweensuresuchcooperation,therewillbenotalkofacoldwar.Afterall,sincetheArab
Spring,theyhavealreadyapproachedourborders.WhydidtheyhavetosupportthecoupinUkraine?
Ihaveoftenspokenaboutthis.Theinternalpoliticalsituationthereiscomplicatedandtheoppositionthatis
inpowernowwouldmostlikelyhavecometopowerdemocratically,throughelections.Thatsit.We
wouldhaveworkedwiththemaswehadwiththegovernmentthatwasinpowerbeforePresident
Yanukovych.

Butno,theyhadtoproceedwithacoup,casualties,unleashbloodshed,acivilwar,andscaretheRussian-
speakingpopulationofsoutheasternUkraineandCrimea.Allforthesakeofwhat?Andafterwehadto,
simplyhadtotakemeasurestoprotectcertainsocialgroups,theybegantoescalatethesituation,
ratchetinguptensions.Inmyopinion,thisisbeingdone,amongotherthings,tojustifytheexistence
oftheNorthAtlanticbloc.Theyneedanexternaladversary,anexternalenemyotherwisewhyisthis
organisationnecessaryinthefirstplace?ThereisnoWarsawPact,noSovietUnionwhoisitdirected
against?

Ifwecontinuetoactaccordingtothislogic,escalating[tensions]andredoublingeffortstoscareeach
other,thenonedayitwillcometoacoldwar.Ourlogicistotallydifferent.Itisfocusedoncooperation
andthesearchforcompromise.(Applause.)

FareedZakaria:Soletmeaskyou,MrPresident,thenwhatisthewayout?BecauseIsawaninterview
ofyoursthatyoudidwithDieWelt,theGermannewspaper,inwhichyousaid,thekeyproblemisthat
theMinskAccordshavenotbeenimplementedbytheGovernmentinUkraine,byKiev,theconstitutional
reforms.TheysayontheothersidethatinEasternUkraine,theviolencehasnotcomedown,
andtheseparatistsarenotrestrainingthemselves,andtheybelieveRussiashouldhelp.Sosinceneither
sideseemstobackdown,willthesanctionsjustcontinue,willthislow-gradecoldwarjustcontinue?What
isthewayout?

VladimirPutin:Anditisallaboutpeople,nomatterwhatyoucallthem.Itisaboutpeopletryingtoprotect
theirlegalrightsandinterests,whofearrepressioniftheseinterestsarenotupheldatthepoliticallevel.
IfwelookattheMinskagreements,thereareonlyafewpoints,andwediscussedthemallthrough
thenight.Whatwastheboneofcontention?Whataspectisofprimaryimportance?Andweagreed
ultimatelythatpoliticalsolutionsthatensurethesecurityofpeoplelivinginDonbasswerethepriority.

Whatarethesepoliticalsolutions?Theyarelaiddownindetailintheagreements.Constitutional
amendmentsthathadtobeadoptedbytheendof2015.Butwherearethey?Theyarenowheretobe
seen.Thelawonaspecialstatusoftheseterritories,whichwecallunrecognizedrepublics,shouldhave
beenputintopractice.Thelawhasbeenpassedbythecountrysparliamentbutstillhasntcomeinto
effect.Thereshouldhavebeenanamnestylaw.ItwaspassedbytheUkrainianparliamentbutwasnever
signedbythepresident,ithasnoeffect.

Whatkindofelectionsarewetalkingabout?Whatsortofelectionprocesscanbeorganisedduring
ananti-terroristoperation?Doanycountriesdothat?Wedonottalkaboutit,butdoesanyothercountry
holdelectioncampaignswhenananti-terroristoperationistakingplaceonitsterritory?

They[elections]havetobecancelledandourworkshouldfocusoneconomicandhumanitarian
restoration.Nothingisbeingdone,nothingatall.Postponingtheseproblemsoveron-goingviolence
onthefrontlinesisjustanexcuse.Whatishappeninginrealityisthatbothsidesareaccusingeachother
ofopeningfire.Whydoyouthinkitisseparatistswhoareshooting?Ifyouaskthem,theysay,Itis
Ukrainiangovernmentforces,theUkrainianarmy.

Onesideopensfire,theothersiderespondsthatswhatexchangingfiremeans.Doyouthinkthisis
agoodenoughreasontodelaypoliticalreforms?Onthecontrary,politicalreformsthatwillconstitute
thefoundationofafinalsettlementonsecurityareapressingpriority.

Somethingshavetobedoneinparallel.IagreewithMrPoroshenkothattheOSCEmissionhastobe
reinforcedtothepointofauthorizingOSCEobserverstocarryfirearms.Otherthingscanbedone
toimprovesecurity.Butwecannotaffordtocontinueputtingoffkeypoliticaldecisionbycitingthelack
ofsecurityinthearea.Thatsit.(Applause.)

..

http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/52178

Meetingwithheadsofinternationalnewsagencies
VladimirPutinhadameetingwithheadsofleadinginternationalnewsagencies.

June17,201623:55StPetersburg

SergeiMikhailov:LetusnowgobacktotheAmericancontinent.MalcolmKirkhasbeenrepresenting
CanadianPress,Canadasnationalnewsagency,forthreeyearsatourmeetings.OnSeptember1,
theagencywillcelebrateits100thanniversary,andIhopethatbeingahugefanofhockeyMrKirkwilluse
thiscentenaryasanopportunitytoplayhockey,andmaybeyouwouldeveninvitehimtoplayintheNight
HockeyLeague.

VladimirPutin:Withpleasure,butonlyifheplaysonmyteam,sinceCanadiansaresogoodaticehockey.

MalcolmKirk:Thankyou.WelookforwardtowelcomingRussiaandothercountriestoToronto
andtoCanadalaterthissummerfortheWorldCupofHockeysoitshouldbeagreatevent.Iveseen
afewofyourhockeymoves.Youknowhowtoscoreafewgoals,MrPresident.Soyourstatsarepretty
good.Thankyouagainforinvitingustothismeetingwithyou.Itisaprivilegeandwecertainlyappreciate
theopportunitytospendsometimewithyou.Iamgoingtoaskyou:therearesomereportsthatCanadais
underpressurefromtheUnitedStatestojoinBritain,GermanyandtheUSintheNATOinitiativethat
wouldseefourtroopbattalionsstationedinPolandandotherBalticstates.Thesecountriesmayfeelthisis
perhapsanactofdeterrenceintheeventthatRussiawastoperhapsinvadetheirterritory.Howwouldyou
viewCanadasparticipationinNATOplansshouldtheCanadiangovernmentmakethedecisiontodoso?
AndIguessgenerallyhowwouldyoucharacteriseRussiasrelationswithCanadanowthatwehaveanew
government?Thankyou.

VladimirPutin:Letmestartwiththelastpartofyourquestion.SincethenewPrimeMinistertookoffice
inCanada,therehasbeenachancethatrelationsbetweenRussiaandCanadacouldimprove.Thisiswhat
thePrimeMinistertoldmeinpersonattheG20SummitinAntalya.Hesaidhewantedtothinkofways
tofullyrestoreourrelations.Wewelcomeinitiativesofthiskindandarereadytocombineourefforts
indeliveringonthisobjective.Wewillworktogether,buttherearespecificstepsthatshouldbetaken
bybothsidesbeforewegetthere.

Asforthemissiledefencesystem,look,peopleinthisaudiencearealladultsandareveryexperienced.
IamnotaskingyoutomirroreverythingIamabouttosaywordforwordinyourcoverageortoinfluence
presscoverage.Ijustwanttotellyousomethinginperson,andremindyouofsomethings.Afterall,
theworldisfreeoflarge-scalewarsormilitaryconflict,andweallknowthat.Thisisduetotheso-called
strategicbalancethatemergedwhentwonuclearsuperpowersagreedtolimittheiroffensiveandmissile-
defencearsenals.Everyoneunderstandsthatifonesideismoresuccessfulindevelopingitsmissiledefence
thantheother,itgainsanedgeandhasthetemptationtobethefirsttousetheseweapons.Itisforthis
reasonthatmissiledefenceandagreementsinthisregardareoneofthecornerstonesofinternational
security.

Itisnotatallmyintentiontoberateoraccuseanyoneofanything,butwhenourUSpartnersunilaterally
withdrew[fromtheAnti-BallisticMissileTreaty],thiswasamajorblow.Infact,thiswasthefirstblow
tointernationalstabilityintermsofupsettingthestrategicbalanceofpower.Isaidbackthen,Weare
currentlyunabletodevelopthistechnologyduetothehighcosts,andsecondly,ithasyettobeseenhowit
willwork.Insteadofsimplysiphoningoffmoney,wewillgotheotherwaybyimprovingRussiasoffensive
weaponsinordertomaintainthebalance.Thiswastheonlypurpose,andithadnothingtodowith
threateninganyone.Hereiswhatweheardinresponse:Itistruethatourmissiledefencesystemisnot
intendedtoopposeRussia,andweassumethatwhatyoudoisnotagainstus,soyoumaydoasyou
please.

Icanexplainthisbysaying,asIdidattheplenarysessiontoday,thatitwastheearly2000swhenRussia
wasinaverycomplicatedsituation,witharuinedeconomy,anactualcivilwarandthefightagainst
terrorismintheCaucasus,thedefenceindustrycollapsingandtheArmedForcesdramaticallyweakened.
WhocouldimaginethenthatRussiawouldbuildupitsstrategicweapons?Theyprobablythoughtthat
theweaponsRussiainheritedfromtheSovietUnionwouldeventuallybecomedegraded.Andsotheytold
ustogoaheadanddowhatwewanted.However,weinformedthemaboutourplans,whichweare
implementing.Trustme:Russiahasmovedalongwayonthispath.Iwillnotreadouttheentirelist,but
Icantellyouthatwehavemodernisedourweaponsandarecreatingnew-generationsystems,not
tomentiontheweaponsthataredesignedtopenetrateballisticmissiledefencesystems.

Despiteallourobjectionsandoffersofrealcooperation,ourpartnersdonotwanttocooperatewithus
theyhaverejectedallofourproposalsandareworkingtotheirownplans.Ibelieveitinappropriatetosay
certainthingsinpublic,butIcanassureyou,andyoucanchoosetobelievemeornot,thatweoffered
practicalcooperationalternativesthatwererejected.

Eventually,theybuiltaBMDsysteminRomania.Theykeptsayingthattheyweredoingthistoprotect
themselvesagainstanIraniannuclearthreat.Butwhereisthisthreatnow?Itdoesnotexist.Wehave
signedatreatywithIran,anditwastheUnitedStatesthatinitiatedit.Wedidourbest,helpingasmuch
aswecould,butthetreatywasonlymadepossiblethroughthepositionoftheUS.Thissuccessshouldbe
creditedtoPresidentObama.Ibelieveitisagoodtreaty,whichhaseasedtensionsaroundIran,
andPresidentObamashoulddefinitelygivehimselfthecreditforthis.

Anyway,thereisnoIranianthreat,buttheBMDsystemisbeingbuiltnevertheless.Thismightmeanthat
wewererightwhenwesuspectedourpartnersofbeinginsincere,ofdeceivinguswithreferences
toanallegedIraniannuclearthreat.Yes,thisishowitwastheyattemptedtocheatusagain.

Theyhavebuiltthissystemandarenowdeliveringmissilesthere.Youprobablyknowthatthelaunch
systemsoftheTomahawksea-launchedintermediate-rangemissileswillbeusedtolaunchanti-missiles
withaneffectiverangeof500kilometres.However,technologydoesnotstandstill,andweknowmore
orlesspreciselywhentheAmericanswillcreateanewmissilethatwillhavearangeof1,000
kilometresormore.Fromthattimeon,theywillbeathreattoournucleararsenals.

Weknowwhatwillhappenandinwhichyear,andtheyknowweknowit.Theyarejustthrowingdust
inoureyes,asthesayinggoes,andyouinturnarethrowingdustintheeyesofyourpeople.Whatbothers
meisthatpeoplearenotawareofthedanger.Wefailtounderstandthatwearedraggingtheworldinto
acompletelynewdimension.Thisiswhatthisisallabout.Theyarepretendingasifnothingisgoing
on.Idonotevenknowhowtoputmymessageacross.

Wearebeingtoldthatthisispartofadefensive,notoffensive,capability,thatthesesystemsareintended
toensuredefenceagainstaggression.Thisisnottrue.Thisisnotthewaythingsare.Astrategicmissile
defencesystemispartofanoffensivestrategiccapability,andistightlylinkedtooffensivemissilestrike
systems.Somehigh-precisionweaponsareusedtocarryoutapre-emptivestrike,whileothers
serveasashieldagainstaretaliatorystrike,andstillotherscarryoutnuclearstrikes.Allthese
objectivesarerelated,andgohandinhandwiththeuseofhigh-precisionconventionalweapons.

Allright,evenifweputasidetheinterceptormissilesthatwillbedevelopedinthefuture,increasingly
threateningRussia,butthelaunchtubeswherethesemissilesarestored,asIsaid,arethesamethatare
usedonnavyshipstocarryTomahawkmissiles.Youcanreplaceinterceptormissileswith
Tomahawksinamatterofhoursandthesetubeswillnolongerbeusedtointerceptmissiles.
Howdoweknowwhatisinsidethem?Alltheyneedistochangethesoftware.Thiscanbedone
seamlesslyeventheRomanianswouldnotknowwhatisgoingon,sincetheycannotaccess
thesefacilities,right?Noonewillknow,neithertheRomanians,northePoles.Iknowhowthisis
done.Inmyopinion,thisisamajorthreat.

WhenwediscussedthiswithourUSpartners,theyhadtheideaofcreatingnonnuclearballistic
missiles.Wesaid,Listen,doyouunderstandwhatthiswouldbe?Imaginethatyoufire
asubmarine-launchorland-basedmissile.Aballisticmissileislaunched.Howdoweknow
whetheritiscarryinganuclearwarheadornot?Doyouunderstandthekindofthreatthiswould
create?Asfarasweknow,thisprogrammeiscurrentlysuspended.Theyhavestoppedit
fornow.However,theyarestillworkingonit.

Idonotknowwherethiswilltakeus.However,Russiawilldefinitelyhavetoretaliate.Iknowalreadythat
wewillbeaccusedofactingaggressively,eventhoughallwedoisrespond.Itisclearthatwewillhave
toensuresecurity,andnotjustinRussia,sinceensuringthestrategicbalanceofpowergloballyisamatter
ofgreatimportanceforus.

IwouldliketoconcludemyanswerwithwhatIstartedwith:itisthestrategicbalancethatensured
andguaranteedpeaceontheplanet,sparingusfrommajormilitaryconflictoverthelast70years.This
shouldbeviewedasgood,eventhoughitisbasedonmutualthreat.However,thismutualthreatbrought
aboutglobalpeacefordecades.Idonotknowhowanyonecouldwanttodestroyit.Ibelievethatthis
wouldbeverydangerous.NotonlydoIbelieveit,Iamcertainofit.

IfCanadawantstojoin,goahead,whatcanwesay?Wecannotorderyou.Doasyouplease,andwewill
doaswedeemnecessaryintermsofensuringoursecurity.

SergeiMikhailov:Thankyou,MrPresident.

http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/52183

PutinCallsU.S.MissileShield'GreatDanger,'VowsRussian
Response
June18,2016RFE/RL
RussianPresidentVladimirPutincalledtheU.S.missileshieldinEasternEuropea"greatdanger"andsaid
Russiawillrespond.

RussianPresidentVladimirPutinhascalledtheU.S.missileshieldinEasternEuropea"greatdanger"and
vowedthatMoscowwillrespondbyenhancingitsownmissilestrikecapability.

WhileNATOinsiststheshieldisadefensivesystemaimedinpartatthwartingpossibleIranianmissile
strikes,PutinsaiditcanbeeasilyturnedintoanoffensivesystemthatcouldbeusedagainstRussia.

"Thosetubes,thosesiloswheremissilesareputareusedforTomahawks.TheseTomahawkscanbeput
thereinjustafewhours,andthenthesewillbenotmissileinterceptors,"Putintoldinternationalnews
leadersinSt.PetersburgonJune17.

"Youhaveonlytochangethesoftware,andthat'sit.Thisworkisabsolutelyinvisible.TheRomanianswon't
knowwhat'shappeningthere,"hesaid."Nobodywillknow,eitherRomaniansorPoles.Iknowhowit's
done."

"Inmyview,thisisreallydangerous,"hesaid,addingthat"weknowapproximatelywhichyearthe
Americanswillgetanewmissilethatwillhavearangeofnot500kilometersbut1,000kilometers,and
fromthatmomenttheywillstartthreateningournuclearpotential."

Putinaddedthat"wewillhavetorespond"tothethreats,although"Iknowinadvancethatwewillagainbe
accusedofaggressivebehavior"whenRussiaresponds.

"Wewillperfectourmissilestrikecapability,"toensurethat"strategicbalance"ismaintainedinEurope,he
said."Wewillhavetoensurenotonlyourownsecurity.Itisvitalforustoensurestrategicbalanceinthe
world."

PutinaddedthatheworriesthatthegrowingmilitaryconfrontationbetweenRussiaandtheUnitedStates
"isdraggingtheworldintoanewdimension."

"Peoplefeelnodanger,andthatisalarmingforme.Canweseethatwearedraggingtheworldintoan
utterlynewdimension?"

Putinsaidhedidn'tknowhowto"bringthishome"toleadersfromothercountries.

WithreportingbyReuters,Interfax,andTASS

http://www.rferl.mobi/a/putin-calls-us-missile-shield-eastern-europe-great-danger-vows-russian-
response/27806039.html

PlenarysessionofStPetersburgInternationalEconomicForum
VladimirPutinspokeattheplenarysessionoftheStPetersburgInternationalEconomicForum.

June17,201616:20StPetersburg

FareedZakaria:Letmeaskyou,MrPresident,aboutanotherdemocracythatishavingaverydifferent
kindofdrama.YoumadesomecommentsabouttheAmericanRepublicanpresumptivenominee,Donald
Trump.Youcalledhimbrilliant,outstanding,talented.Thesecommentswerereportedaroundtheworld.
Iwaswondering,whatinhimledyoutothatjudgement,anddoyoustillholdthatjudgement?

VladimirPutin:Youarewellknowninourcountry,youpersonally.NotonlyasahostofamajorTV
corporation,butalsoasanintellectual.Whyareyoudistortingeverything?Thejournalistinyouisgetting
thebetteroftheanalyst.Look,whatdidIsay?IsaidinpassingthatTrumpisavividpersonality.Ishenot?
Heis.Ididnotascribeanyothercharacteristicstohim.However,whatIdefinitelynoteandwhat
IdefinitelywelcomeandIseenothingwrongaboutthis,justtheoppositeisthatMrTrumpsaidthathe
isreadyforthefull-scalerestorationofRussian-USrelations.Whatiswrongwiththat?Weallwelcome
this!Dontyou?

Weneverinterfereintheinternalpoliticsofothercountries,especiallytheUnitedStates.However,wewill
workwithanypresidentthattheUSpeoplevotefor.AlthoughIdonotthink,bytheway,thatWell,they
lectureeveryoneonhowtoliveandondemocracy.Now,doyoureallythinkpresidentialelectionsthere
aredemocratic?Look,twiceinUShistoryapresidentwaselectedbyamajorityofelectors,butstanding
behindthoseelectorswasasmallernumberofvoters.Isthatdemocracy?Andwhen(sometimeswehave
debateswithourcolleaguesweneveraccuseanyoneofanything,wesimplyhavedebates)wearetold:
Donotmeddleinouraffairs.Mindyourownbusiness.Thisishowwedothings,wefeellikesaying:
Wellthen,donotmeddleinouraffairs.Whydoyou?Putyourownhouseinorderfirst.

But,toreiterate,indeed,thisisnoneofourbusinessalthough,inmyopinion,evenprosecutorstherechase
internationalobserversawayfrompollingstationsduringelectioncampaigns.USprosecutorsthreaten
tojailthem.However,thesearetheirownproblemsthisishowtheydothingsandtheylikeit.Americais
agreatpower,todayperhapstheonlysuperpower.Weacceptthis.WewanttoworkwiththeUnited
Statesandwearepreparedto.Nomatterhowtheseelectionsgo,eventuallytheywilltakeplace.There
willbea[new]headofstatewithextensivepowers.Therearecomplicatedinternalpoliticalandeconomic
processesatworkintheUnitedStates.TheworldneedsapowerfulcountryliketheUnitedStates,
andwealsoneedit.Butwedonotneedittocontinuouslyinterfereinouraffairs,tellingushowtolive,
andpreventingEuropefrombuildingarelationshipwithus.

HowarethesanctionsthatyouhavementionedaffectingtheUnitedStates?Innowaywhatsoever.It
couldnotcarelessaboutthesesanctionsbecausetheconsequencesofouractionsinresponsehaveno
impactonit.TheyimpactEuropebutnottheUnitedStates.Zeroeffect.However,theAmericansare
tellingtheirpartners:Bepatient.Whyshouldthey?Idonotunderstand.Iftheywantto,letthem.

Matteo,whyshouldtheybepatient?NowMatteowillexplainwhytheyshould.Heisabrilliantorator,
wereseeingitnow.Hisremarkswereexcellent.Iamsayingthissincerely,honestly.Italycanbeproud
ofitsPrimeMinister,really.Justbeautiful.

Wedonotlavishpraiseonanybody.Itsnoneofourbusiness.AsGermanssay,thisisnotourbeer.
Becausewhentheymaketheirchoice,wewillworkwithanypresidentwhohasreceivedthesupport
oftheAmericanpeople,inthehopethatitwillbeapersonwhoseekstodeveloprelationswithour
countryandhelpbuildamoresecureworld.

FareedZakaria:Justtobeclear,MrPresident,thewordbrilliantwasintheInterfaxtranslation,Irealize
thatothertranslationsmightsaybright,butIusedtheofficialInterfaxtranslation.Butletmeaskyou
aboutanotherpersonyouhavedealtwithagreatdeal.MrTrump,you'venevermet.HillaryClintonwas
SecretaryofState.InyourverylongquestionsandanswerswiththeRussianpeople,youmadeajoke
whensomebodyaskedyouaboutheryousaid,IthinkthattheRussiaidiomis,thehusbandandwifeis
thesamedevil.AndwhatitmeansintheEnglishversionis,it'stwosidesofthesamecoin.Whatdidyou
meanbythat,andhowdidshedoasSecretaryofState?Youdealtwithherextensively.

VladimirPutin:Ididnotworkwithher,Lavrovdid.Askhim.Heissittinghere.

Iwasnotaforeignminister,butSergeiLavrovwas.Hewillsoontie[SovietForeignMinisterAndrei]
Gromyko.(AddressingSergeiLavrov.)Howlonghaveyoubeeninoffice?

IworkedwithBillClinton,althoughforaveryshorttime,andwehadaverygoodrelationship.Icaneven
saythatIamgratefultohimforcertainmomentsasIwasenteringthebigstageinpolitics.Onseveral
occasions,heshowedsignsofattention,respectformepersonally,aswellasforRussia.Iremember
thisandIamgratefultohim.

AboutMsClinton.PerhapsshehasherownviewonthedevelopmentofRussian-USrelations.Youknow,
thereissomethingIwouldliketodraw[your]attentionto,whichhasnothingtodowithRussian-US
relationsorwithnationalpolitics.Itisrelated,rather,topersonnelpolicy.

Inmyexperience,Ihaveoftenseenwhathappenswithpeoplebeforetheytakeonacertainjob
andafterward.Often,youcannotrecognisethem,becauseoncetheyreachanewlevelofresponsibility
theybegintotalkandthinkdifferently,theyevenlookdifferent.Weactontheassumptionthatthesense
ofresponsibilityoftheUSheadofstate,theheadofthecountryonwhichagreatdealintheworld
dependstoday,thatthissenseofresponsibilitywillencouragethenewlyelectedpresidenttocooperate
withRussiaand,Iwouldliketorepeat,buildamoresecureworld.

ThisemailisUNCLASSIFIED.

From: Handler,JoshuaM<HandlerJM@state.gov>
Senttime: 06/20/201601:01:25PM
To: Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>Gottemoeller,RoseE<GottemoellerRE@state.gov>
Cc: Otto,Robert<OttoRC@state.gov>
Subject: RE:MD,ABM,INF,PGS-Putin'sCommentsattheSt.PeteEconomicForumonFriday-TranscriptfromKremlinWebsite
Attachments: RE:PutinonABMTreaty/MissileDefenseatStPEconomicForum6/17.eml

Rose,YesinthesensetheyarefromtheKremlinwebsiteandseeminglyfollowtheRussiantranscript.WhethertheKremlins
translationgoteverynuanceoftheoriginalRussianIcantquitesay,butBobsenttheexcerptsfrombothpresentationsinhisearlier
e-mail.Seeattached.Thanks,

ThisemailisUNCLASSIFIED.

From:Gottemoeller,RoseE
Sent:Monday,June20,20161:33PM
To:Handler,JoshuaM'Bob'
Subject:RE:MD,ABM,INF,PGS-Putin'sCommentsattheSt.PeteEconomicForumonFriday-TranscriptfromKremlinWebsite

Sorry, Josh, should have read on: are these complete translations? Thanks, R

From:Handler,JoshuaM
Sent:Monday,June20,20169:58AM
To:Gottemoeller,RoseEAVCManagersPlusAVC-ESA-DLAVC-ESC-DLAVC-NRRC-StaffAVC-Press-DLAVC-SSD-DLBallas,Spiro
Bell,AlexandraFBoggs,PhillipWBorges,ManoelaGBurgess,JoshuaCCarhart,RobertNJrCope,AaronMDean,PaulBDodge,
SimonPDoell,CynthiaDolliff,PhillipRDonoho,GideonTEUR-PRA-AVCEUR-RPM-PMD-DLEUR-RUS-POL-DLFaithful,FrederickL
Fetter,SteveA.EOP/OSTPGelman,JeffreyDGodfrey,AnthonyFGoldstein,StephanieEGreaney,BrianEHalupka,NicholasA
Handler,JoshuaMHolmes,StephanieEHornbostel,CharlesPJensen,DanaEJonWolfsthalKavalec,KathleenAKile,JeffreyK
Lacey,EdwardLawson,KevinJMikulsky,AlexJ(Geneva)Nelson,RobertWOtto,RobertPark,RebeccaC.Parrish,ScottDPearce,
StacyL(London)Phelan,DonnaARoraff,BrianRRuss,LauraW(London)Rusten,LynnFSmilansky,GeneSolomon,HowardT
(Vilnius)Spykerman,JohnDTarar,Humza(Zed)Tefft,JohnFterHaar,MiaFTierney,JenniferMTratensek,AlexanderWright,
JaneyF
Subject:MD,ABM,INF,PGS-Putin'sCommentsattheSt.PeteEconomicForumonFriday-TranscriptfromKremlinWebsite

PutinmaderemarksaboutmissiledefenseandstrategicstabilityintwovenuesattheSt.Petersburg
InternationalEconomicFormthatmadeheadlinesovertheweekend.

AtthePlenarysessioninresponsetoFareedZakariasquestionherelatedthenegativeconsequencesof
theU.S.withdrawingfromtheABMTreaty.Laterinameetingwithmembersoftheinternationalpresshe
elaboratedfurther,mentioninghowtheyfeltdeceivedbyUSactions,andtalkedaboutthepotential
deploymentof1,000kmoffensivemissilesintheAegisashore(thoughdidntmentionINFbyname)and
USPGSprograms.Hiscommentsareworthacloseread.Somepressstoriesmergedthereportingon
thetwoevents.SeehighlightsandRFE/RLarticlebelow.

InthePlenarysessionhealsospokeabouttheU.S.beingtheonlysuperpower,andhisviewsontheU.S.
Presidentialcandidates.Tackedonthelatterattheendasitisrevealing.LinkstoEnglishlanguage
transcriptonKremlinsiteareprovidedasthewholepresentationisworthaskim.Anynumberoftopics
ontheinternationalagendaarecovered.

Thanks,

PlenarysessionofStPetersburgInternationalEconomicForum
VladimirPutinspokeattheplenarysessionoftheStPetersburgInternationalEconomicForum.

June17,201616:20StPetersburg

Plenarysessionmoderator,CNNhostFareedZakaria:Thankyoutoallthreeofyou:twopresidents,one
primeminister,thoughinItaly,youareallowedtosayPresidentRenzialso.Bytheformatwehave
agreedupon,whatIwilldoiswewillbeginthisdiscussionfirstwithourhostpresident,PresidentPutin,
andthenIwillwidenthatconversationtoincludePrimeMinisterRenziandPresidentNazarbayev.We
startedalittlebitlate,sowewillgoalittlebitlonger.

PresidentPutin,letmeaskyouaverysimplequestion.Since2014,youhavehadEuropeanUnion
sanctionsandUSsanctionsagainstRussia.NATOhasannouncedjustthisweekthatitisgoingtobuildup
forcesinstatesthatborderRussia.Russiahasannounceditsownbuildup.Arewesettlingintoalow-
grade,lower-levelcoldwarbetweentheWestandRussia?

VladimirPutin:IdonotwanttobelievethatwearemovingtowardsanotherColdWar,andIamsure
nobodywantsthis.Wecertainlydonot.Thereisnoneedforthis.Themainlogicbehindinternational
relationsdevelopmentisthatnomatterhowdramaticitmightseem,itisnotthelogicofglobal
confrontation.Whatistherootoftheproblem?

Iwilltellyou.Iwillhavetotakeyoubackintime.AfterthecollapseoftheSovietUnion,weexpected
overallprosperityandoveralltrust.Unfortunately,Russiahadtofacenumerouschallenges,speaking
inmodernterms:economic,socialanddomesticpolicy.Wecameupagainstseparatism,radicalism,
aggressionofinternationalterror,becauseundoubtedlywewerefightingagainstAlQaedamilitants
intheCaucasus,itisanobviousfact,andtherecanbenosecondthoughtsaboutit.Butinsteadofsupport
fromourpartnersinourstrugglewiththeseproblems,wesadlycameacrosssomethingdifferentsupport
fortheseparatists.Weweretold,Wedonotacceptyourseparatistsatthetoppoliticallevel,only
atthetechnological.

Verywell.Weappreciateit.Butwealsosawinformationsupport,financialsupportandadministrative
backup.

Later,afterwetackledthoseproblems,wentthroughserioushardships,wecametofaceanotherthing.
TheSovietUnionwasnomoretheWarsawPacthadceasedtoexist.Butforsomereason,NATO
continuestoexpanditsinfrastructuretowardsRussiasborders.Itstartedlongbeforeyesterday.
Montenegroisbecominga[NATO]member.WhoisthreateningMontenegro?Yousee,ourpositionis
beingtotallyignored.

Another,equallyimportant,orperhaps,themostimportantissueistheunilateralwithdrawal[oftheUS]
fromtheABMTreaty.TheABMTreatywasonceconcludedbetweentheSovietUnionandtheUnited
Statesforagoodreason.TworegionswereallowedtostayMoscowandthesiteofUSICBMsilos.

Thetreatywasdesignedtoprovideastrategicbalanceintheworld.However,theyunilaterallyquit
thetreaty,sayinginafriendlymanner,Thisisnotaimedagainstyou.Youwanttodevelopyouroffensive
arms,andweassumeitisnotaimedagainstus.

Youknowwhytheysaidso?Itissimple:nobodyexpectedRussiaintheearly2000s,whenitwas
strugglingwithitsdomesticproblems,tornapartbyinternalconflicts,politicalandeconomicproblems,
torturedbyterrorists,torestoreitsdefencesector.Clearly,nobodyexpectedustobeabletomaintainour
arsenals,letalonehavenewstrategicweapons.Theythoughttheywouldbuilduptheirmissiledefence
forcesunilaterallywhileourarsenalswouldbeshrinking.

AllofthiswasdoneunderthepretextofcombattingtheIraniannuclearthreat.Whathasbecome
oftheIraniannuclearthreatnow?Thereisnone,buttheprojectcontinues.Thisisthewayitis,step
bystep,oneafteranother,andsoon.

Thentheybegantosupportallkindsofcolourrevolutions,includingtheso-calledArabSpring.They
ferventlysupportedit.Howmanypositivetakesdidwehearonwhatwasgoingon?Whatdiditleadto?
Chaos.

Iamnotinterestedinlayingblamenow.Isimplywanttosaythatifthispolicyofunilateralactionscontinues
andifstepsintheinternationalarenathatareverysensitivetotheinternationalcommunityarenot
coordinatedthensuchconsequencesareinevitable.Conversely,ifwelistentooneanotherandseekout
abalanceofinterests,thiswillnothappen.Yes,itisadifficultprocess,theprocessofreachingagreement,
butitistheonlypathtoacceptablesolutions.

Ibelievethatifweensuresuchcooperation,therewillbenotalkofacoldwar.Afterall,sincetheArab
Spring,theyhavealreadyapproachedourborders.WhydidtheyhavetosupportthecoupinUkraine?
Ihaveoftenspokenaboutthis.Theinternalpoliticalsituationthereiscomplicatedandtheoppositionthatis
inpowernowwouldmostlikelyhavecometopowerdemocratically,throughelections.Thatsit.We
wouldhaveworkedwiththemaswehadwiththegovernmentthatwasinpowerbeforePresident
Yanukovych.

Butno,theyhadtoproceedwithacoup,casualties,unleashbloodshed,acivilwar,andscaretheRussian-
speakingpopulationofsoutheasternUkraineandCrimea.Allforthesakeofwhat?Andafterwehadto,
simplyhadtotakemeasurestoprotectcertainsocialgroups,theybegantoescalatethesituation,
ratchetinguptensions.Inmyopinion,thisisbeingdone,amongotherthings,tojustifytheexistence
oftheNorthAtlanticbloc.Theyneedanexternaladversary,anexternalenemyotherwisewhyisthis
organisationnecessaryinthefirstplace?ThereisnoWarsawPact,noSovietUnionwhoisitdirected
against?

Ifwecontinuetoactaccordingtothislogic,escalating[tensions]andredoublingeffortstoscareeach
other,thenonedayitwillcometoacoldwar.Ourlogicistotallydifferent.Itisfocusedoncooperation
andthesearchforcompromise.(Applause.)

FareedZakaria:Soletmeaskyou,MrPresident,thenwhatisthewayout?BecauseIsawaninterview
ofyoursthatyoudidwithDieWelt,theGermannewspaper,inwhichyousaid,thekeyproblemisthat
theMinskAccordshavenotbeenimplementedbytheGovernmentinUkraine,byKiev,theconstitutional
reforms.TheysayontheothersidethatinEasternUkraine,theviolencehasnotcomedown,
andtheseparatistsarenotrestrainingthemselves,andtheybelieveRussiashouldhelp.Sosinceneither
sideseemstobackdown,willthesanctionsjustcontinue,willthislow-gradecoldwarjustcontinue?What
isthewayout?

VladimirPutin:Anditisallaboutpeople,nomatterwhatyoucallthem.Itisaboutpeopletryingtoprotect
theirlegalrightsandinterests,whofearrepressioniftheseinterestsarenotupheldatthepoliticallevel.

IfwelookattheMinskagreements,thereareonlyafewpoints,andwediscussedthemallthrough
thenight.Whatwastheboneofcontention?Whataspectisofprimaryimportance?Andweagreed
ultimatelythatpoliticalsolutionsthatensurethesecurityofpeoplelivinginDonbasswerethepriority.

Whatarethesepoliticalsolutions?Theyarelaiddownindetailintheagreements.Constitutional
amendmentsthathadtobeadoptedbytheendof2015.Butwherearethey?Theyarenowheretobe
seen.Thelawonaspecialstatusoftheseterritories,whichwecallunrecognizedrepublics,shouldhave
beenputintopractice.Thelawhasbeenpassedbythecountrysparliamentbutstillhasntcomeinto
effect.Thereshouldhavebeenanamnestylaw.ItwaspassedbytheUkrainianparliamentbutwasnever
signedbythepresident,ithasnoeffect.

Whatkindofelectionsarewetalkingabout?Whatsortofelectionprocesscanbeorganisedduring
ananti-terroristoperation?Doanycountriesdothat?Wedonottalkaboutit,butdoesanyothercountry
holdelectioncampaignswhenananti-terroristoperationistakingplaceonitsterritory?

They[elections]havetobecancelledandourworkshouldfocusoneconomicandhumanitarian
restoration.Nothingisbeingdone,nothingatall.Postponingtheseproblemsoveron-goingviolence
onthefrontlinesisjustanexcuse.Whatishappeninginrealityisthatbothsidesareaccusingeachother
ofopeningfire.Whydoyouthinkitisseparatistswhoareshooting?Ifyouaskthem,theysay,Itis
Ukrainiangovernmentforces,theUkrainianarmy.

Onesideopensfire,theothersiderespondsthatswhatexchangingfiremeans.Doyouthinkthisis
agoodenoughreasontodelaypoliticalreforms?Onthecontrary,politicalreformsthatwillconstitute
thefoundationofafinalsettlementonsecurityareapressingpriority.

Somethingshavetobedoneinparallel.IagreewithMrPoroshenkothattheOSCEmissionhastobe
reinforcedtothepointofauthorizingOSCEobserverstocarryfirearms.Otherthingscanbedone
toimprovesecurity.Butwecannotaffordtocontinueputtingoffkeypoliticaldecisionbycitingthelack
ofsecurityinthearea.Thatsit.(Applause.)

..

http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/52178

Meetingwithheadsofinternationalnewsagencies
VladimirPutinhadameetingwithheadsofleadinginternationalnewsagencies.

June17,201623:55StPetersburg

SergeiMikhailov:LetusnowgobacktotheAmericancontinent.MalcolmKirkhasbeenrepresenting
CanadianPress,Canadasnationalnewsagency,forthreeyearsatourmeetings.OnSeptember1,
theagencywillcelebrateits100thanniversary,andIhopethatbeingahugefanofhockeyMrKirkwilluse
thiscentenaryasanopportunitytoplayhockey,andmaybeyouwouldeveninvitehimtoplayintheNight
HockeyLeague.

VladimirPutin:Withpleasure,butonlyifheplaysonmyteam,sinceCanadiansaresogoodaticehockey.

MalcolmKirk:Thankyou.WelookforwardtowelcomingRussiaandothercountriestoToronto
andtoCanadalaterthissummerfortheWorldCupofHockeysoitshouldbeagreatevent.Iveseen
afewofyourhockeymoves.Youknowhowtoscoreafewgoals,MrPresident.Soyourstatsarepretty
good.Thankyouagainforinvitingustothismeetingwithyou.Itisaprivilegeandwecertainlyappreciate
theopportunitytospendsometimewithyou.Iamgoingtoaskyou:therearesomereportsthatCanadais
underpressurefromtheUnitedStatestojoinBritain,GermanyandtheUSintheNATOinitiativethat
wouldseefourtroopbattalionsstationedinPolandandotherBalticstates.Thesecountriesmayfeelthisis
perhapsanactofdeterrenceintheeventthatRussiawastoperhapsinvadetheirterritory.Howwouldyou
viewCanadasparticipationinNATOplansshouldtheCanadiangovernmentmakethedecisiontodoso?
AndIguessgenerallyhowwouldyoucharacteriseRussiasrelationswithCanadanowthatwehaveanew
government?Thankyou.

VladimirPutin:Letmestartwiththelastpartofyourquestion.SincethenewPrimeMinistertookoffice
inCanada,therehasbeenachancethatrelationsbetweenRussiaandCanadacouldimprove.Thisiswhat
thePrimeMinistertoldmeinpersonattheG20SummitinAntalya.Hesaidhewantedtothinkofways
tofullyrestoreourrelations.Wewelcomeinitiativesofthiskindandarereadytocombineourefforts
indeliveringonthisobjective.Wewillworktogether,buttherearespecificstepsthatshouldbetaken
bybothsidesbeforewegetthere.

Asforthemissiledefencesystem,look,peopleinthisaudiencearealladultsandareveryexperienced.
IamnotaskingyoutomirroreverythingIamabouttosaywordforwordinyourcoverageortoinfluence
presscoverage.Ijustwanttotellyousomethinginperson,andremindyouofsomethings.Afterall,
theworldisfreeoflarge-scalewarsormilitaryconflict,andweallknowthat.Thisisduetotheso-called
strategicbalancethatemergedwhentwonuclearsuperpowersagreedtolimittheiroffensiveandmissile-
defencearsenals.Everyoneunderstandsthatifonesideismoresuccessfulindevelopingitsmissiledefence
thantheother,itgainsanedgeandhasthetemptationtobethefirsttousetheseweapons.Itisforthis
reasonthatmissiledefenceandagreementsinthisregardareoneofthecornerstonesofinternational
security.

Itisnotatallmyintentiontoberateoraccuseanyoneofanything,butwhenourUSpartnersunilaterally
withdrew[fromtheAnti-BallisticMissileTreaty],thiswasamajorblow.Infact,thiswasthefirstblow
tointernationalstabilityintermsofupsettingthestrategicbalanceofpower.Isaidbackthen,Weare
currentlyunabletodevelopthistechnologyduetothehighcosts,andsecondly,ithasyettobeseenhowit
willwork.Insteadofsimplysiphoningoffmoney,wewillgotheotherwaybyimprovingRussiasoffensive
weaponsinordertomaintainthebalance.Thiswastheonlypurpose,andithadnothingtodowith
threateninganyone.Hereiswhatweheardinresponse:Itistruethatourmissiledefencesystemisnot
intendedtoopposeRussia,andweassumethatwhatyoudoisnotagainstus,soyoumaydoasyou
please.

Icanexplainthisbysaying,asIdidattheplenarysessiontoday,thatitwastheearly2000swhenRussia
wasinaverycomplicatedsituation,witharuinedeconomy,anactualcivilwarandthefightagainst
terrorismintheCaucasus,thedefenceindustrycollapsingandtheArmedForcesdramaticallyweakened.
WhocouldimaginethenthatRussiawouldbuildupitsstrategicweapons?Theyprobablythoughtthat
theweaponsRussiainheritedfromtheSovietUnionwouldeventuallybecomedegraded.Andsotheytold
ustogoaheadanddowhatwewanted.However,weinformedthemaboutourplans,whichweare
implementing.Trustme:Russiahasmovedalongwayonthispath.Iwillnotreadouttheentirelist,but
Icantellyouthatwehavemodernisedourweaponsandarecreatingnew-generationsystems,not
tomentiontheweaponsthataredesignedtopenetrateballisticmissiledefencesystems.

Despiteallourobjectionsandoffersofrealcooperation,ourpartnersdonotwanttocooperatewithus
theyhaverejectedallofourproposalsandareworkingtotheirownplans.Ibelieveitinappropriatetosay
certainthingsinpublic,butIcanassureyou,andyoucanchoosetobelievemeornot,thatweoffered
practicalcooperationalternativesthatwererejected.

Eventually,theybuiltaBMDsysteminRomania.Theykeptsayingthattheyweredoingthistoprotect
themselvesagainstanIraniannuclearthreat.Butwhereisthisthreatnow?Itdoesnotexist.Wehave
signedatreatywithIran,anditwastheUnitedStatesthatinitiatedit.Wedidourbest,helpingasmuch
aswecould,butthetreatywasonlymadepossiblethroughthepositionoftheUS.Thissuccessshouldbe
creditedtoPresidentObama.Ibelieveitisagoodtreaty,whichhaseasedtensionsaroundIran,
andPresidentObamashoulddefinitelygivehimselfthecreditforthis.

Anyway,thereisnoIranianthreat,buttheBMDsystemisbeingbuiltnevertheless.Thismightmeanthat
wewererightwhenwesuspectedourpartnersofbeinginsincere,ofdeceivinguswithreferences
toanallegedIraniannuclearthreat.Yes,thisishowitwastheyattemptedtocheatusagain.

Theyhavebuiltthissystemandarenowdeliveringmissilesthere.Youprobablyknowthatthelaunch
systemsoftheTomahawksea-launchedintermediate-rangemissileswillbeusedtolaunchanti-missiles
withaneffectiverangeof500kilometres.However,technologydoesnotstandstill,andweknowmore
orlesspreciselywhentheAmericanswillcreateanewmissilethatwillhavearangeof1,000
kilometresormore.Fromthattimeon,theywillbeathreattoournucleararsenals.

Weknowwhatwillhappenandinwhichyear,andtheyknowweknowit.Theyarejustthrowingdust
inoureyes,asthesayinggoes,andyouinturnarethrowingdustintheeyesofyourpeople.Whatbothers
meisthatpeoplearenotawareofthedanger.Wefailtounderstandthatwearedraggingtheworldinto
acompletelynewdimension.Thisiswhatthisisallabout.Theyarepretendingasifnothingisgoing
on.Idonotevenknowhowtoputmymessageacross.

Wearebeingtoldthatthisispartofadefensive,notoffensive,capability,thatthesesystemsareintended
toensuredefenceagainstaggression.Thisisnottrue.Thisisnotthewaythingsare.Astrategicmissile
defencesystemispartofanoffensivestrategiccapability,andistightlylinkedtooffensivemissilestrike
systems.Somehigh-precisionweaponsareusedtocarryoutapre-emptivestrike,whileothers
serveasashieldagainstaretaliatorystrike,andstillotherscarryoutnuclearstrikes.Allthese
objectivesarerelated,andgohandinhandwiththeuseofhigh-precisionconventionalweapons.

Allright,evenifweputasidetheinterceptormissilesthatwillbedevelopedinthefuture,increasingly
threateningRussia,butthelaunchtubeswherethesemissilesarestored,asIsaid,arethesamethatare
usedonnavyshipstocarryTomahawkmissiles.Youcanreplaceinterceptormissileswith
Tomahawksinamatterofhoursandthesetubeswillnolongerbeusedtointerceptmissiles.
Howdoweknowwhatisinsidethem?Alltheyneedistochangethesoftware.Thiscanbedone
seamlesslyeventheRomanianswouldnotknowwhatisgoingon,sincetheycannotaccess
thesefacilities,right?Noonewillknow,neithertheRomanians,northePoles.Iknowhowthisis
done.Inmyopinion,thisisamajorthreat.

WhenwediscussedthiswithourUSpartners,theyhadtheideaofcreatingnonnuclearballistic
missiles.Wesaid,Listen,doyouunderstandwhatthiswouldbe?Imaginethatyoufire
asubmarine-launchorland-basedmissile.Aballisticmissileislaunched.Howdoweknow
whetheritiscarryinganuclearwarheadornot?Doyouunderstandthekindofthreatthiswould
create?Asfarasweknow,thisprogrammeiscurrentlysuspended.Theyhavestoppedit
fornow.However,theyarestillworkingonit.

Idonotknowwherethiswilltakeus.However,Russiawilldefinitelyhavetoretaliate.Iknowalreadythat
wewillbeaccusedofactingaggressively,eventhoughallwedoisrespond.Itisclearthatwewillhave
toensuresecurity,andnotjustinRussia,sinceensuringthestrategicbalanceofpowergloballyisamatter
ofgreatimportanceforus.

IwouldliketoconcludemyanswerwithwhatIstartedwith:itisthestrategicbalancethatensured
andguaranteedpeaceontheplanet,sparingusfrommajormilitaryconflictoverthelast70years.This
shouldbeviewedasgood,eventhoughitisbasedonmutualthreat.However,thismutualthreatbrought
aboutglobalpeacefordecades.Idonotknowhowanyonecouldwanttodestroyit.Ibelievethatthis
wouldbeverydangerous.NotonlydoIbelieveit,Iamcertainofit.

IfCanadawantstojoin,goahead,whatcanwesay?Wecannotorderyou.Doasyouplease,andwewill
doaswedeemnecessaryintermsofensuringoursecurity.

SergeiMikhailov:Thankyou,MrPresident.

http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/52183

PutinCallsU.S.MissileShield'GreatDanger,'VowsRussian
Response
June18,2016RFE/RL
RussianPresidentVladimirPutincalledtheU.S.missileshieldinEasternEuropea"greatdanger"andsaid
Russiawillrespond.

RussianPresidentVladimirPutinhascalledtheU.S.missileshieldinEasternEuropea"greatdanger"and
vowedthatMoscowwillrespondbyenhancingitsownmissilestrikecapability.

WhileNATOinsiststheshieldisadefensivesystemaimedinpartatthwartingpossibleIranianmissile
strikes,PutinsaiditcanbeeasilyturnedintoanoffensivesystemthatcouldbeusedagainstRussia.

"Thosetubes,thosesiloswheremissilesareputareusedforTomahawks.TheseTomahawkscanbeput
thereinjustafewhours,andthenthesewillbenotmissileinterceptors,"Putintoldinternationalnews
leadersinSt.PetersburgonJune17.

"Youhaveonlytochangethesoftware,andthat'sit.Thisworkisabsolutelyinvisible.TheRomanianswon't
knowwhat'shappeningthere,"hesaid."Nobodywillknow,eitherRomaniansorPoles.Iknowhowit's
done."

"Inmyview,thisisreallydangerous,"hesaid,addingthat"weknowapproximatelywhichyearthe
Americanswillgetanewmissilethatwillhavearangeofnot500kilometersbut1,000kilometers,and
fromthatmomenttheywillstartthreateningournuclearpotential."

Putinaddedthat"wewillhavetorespond"tothethreats,although"Iknowinadvancethatwewillagainbe
accusedofaggressivebehavior"whenRussiaresponds.

"Wewillperfectourmissilestrikecapability,"toensurethat"strategicbalance"ismaintainedinEurope,he
said."Wewillhavetoensurenotonlyourownsecurity.Itisvitalforustoensurestrategicbalanceinthe
world."

PutinaddedthatheworriesthatthegrowingmilitaryconfrontationbetweenRussiaandtheUnitedStates
"isdraggingtheworldintoanewdimension."

"Peoplefeelnodanger,andthatisalarmingforme.Canweseethatwearedraggingtheworldintoan
utterlynewdimension?"

Putinsaidhedidn'tknowhowto"bringthishome"toleadersfromothercountries.

WithreportingbyReuters,Interfax,andTASS

http://www.rferl.mobi/a/putin-calls-us-missile-shield-eastern-europe-great-danger-vows-russian-
response/27806039.html

PlenarysessionofStPetersburgInternationalEconomicForum
VladimirPutinspokeattheplenarysessionoftheStPetersburgInternationalEconomicForum.

June17,201616:20StPetersburg

FareedZakaria:Letmeaskyou,MrPresident,aboutanotherdemocracythatishavingaverydifferent
kindofdrama.YoumadesomecommentsabouttheAmericanRepublicanpresumptivenominee,Donald
Trump.Youcalledhimbrilliant,outstanding,talented.Thesecommentswerereportedaroundtheworld.
Iwaswondering,whatinhimledyoutothatjudgement,anddoyoustillholdthatjudgement?

VladimirPutin:Youarewellknowninourcountry,youpersonally.NotonlyasahostofamajorTV
corporation,butalsoasanintellectual.Whyareyoudistortingeverything?Thejournalistinyouisgetting
thebetteroftheanalyst.Look,whatdidIsay?IsaidinpassingthatTrumpisavividpersonality.Ishenot?
Heis.Ididnotascribeanyothercharacteristicstohim.However,whatIdefinitelynoteandwhat
IdefinitelywelcomeandIseenothingwrongaboutthis,justtheoppositeisthatMrTrumpsaidthathe
isreadyforthefull-scalerestorationofRussian-USrelations.Whatiswrongwiththat?Weallwelcome
this!Dontyou?

Weneverinterfereintheinternalpoliticsofothercountries,especiallytheUnitedStates.However,wewill
workwithanypresidentthattheUSpeoplevotefor.AlthoughIdonotthink,bytheway,thatWell,they
lectureeveryoneonhowtoliveandondemocracy.Now,doyoureallythinkpresidentialelectionsthere
aredemocratic?Look,twiceinUShistoryapresidentwaselectedbyamajorityofelectors,butstanding
behindthoseelectorswasasmallernumberofvoters.Isthatdemocracy?Andwhen(sometimeswehave
debateswithourcolleaguesweneveraccuseanyoneofanything,wesimplyhavedebates)wearetold:
Donotmeddleinouraffairs.Mindyourownbusiness.Thisishowwedothings,wefeellikesaying:
Wellthen,donotmeddleinouraffairs.Whydoyou?Putyourownhouseinorderfirst.

But,toreiterate,indeed,thisisnoneofourbusinessalthough,inmyopinion,evenprosecutorstherechase
internationalobserversawayfrompollingstationsduringelectioncampaigns.USprosecutorsthreaten
tojailthem.However,thesearetheirownproblemsthisishowtheydothingsandtheylikeit.Americais
agreatpower,todayperhapstheonlysuperpower.Weacceptthis.WewanttoworkwiththeUnited
Statesandwearepreparedto.Nomatterhowtheseelectionsgo,eventuallytheywilltakeplace.There
willbea[new]headofstatewithextensivepowers.Therearecomplicatedinternalpoliticalandeconomic
processesatworkintheUnitedStates.TheworldneedsapowerfulcountryliketheUnitedStates,
andwealsoneedit.Butwedonotneedittocontinuouslyinterfereinouraffairs,tellingushowtolive,
andpreventingEuropefrombuildingarelationshipwithus.

HowarethesanctionsthatyouhavementionedaffectingtheUnitedStates?Innowaywhatsoever.It
couldnotcarelessaboutthesesanctionsbecausetheconsequencesofouractionsinresponsehaveno
impactonit.TheyimpactEuropebutnottheUnitedStates.Zeroeffect.However,theAmericansare
tellingtheirpartners:Bepatient.Whyshouldthey?Idonotunderstand.Iftheywantto,letthem.

Matteo,whyshouldtheybepatient?NowMatteowillexplainwhytheyshould.Heisabrilliantorator,
wereseeingitnow.Hisremarkswereexcellent.Iamsayingthissincerely,honestly.Italycanbeproud
ofitsPrimeMinister,really.Justbeautiful.

Wedonotlavishpraiseonanybody.Itsnoneofourbusiness.AsGermanssay,thisisnotourbeer.
Becausewhentheymaketheirchoice,wewillworkwithanypresidentwhohasreceivedthesupport
oftheAmericanpeople,inthehopethatitwillbeapersonwhoseekstodeveloprelationswithour
countryandhelpbuildamoresecureworld.

FareedZakaria:Justtobeclear,MrPresident,thewordbrilliantwasintheInterfaxtranslation,Irealize
thatothertranslationsmightsaybright,butIusedtheofficialInterfaxtranslation.Butletmeaskyou
aboutanotherpersonyouhavedealtwithagreatdeal.MrTrump,you'venevermet.HillaryClintonwas
SecretaryofState.InyourverylongquestionsandanswerswiththeRussianpeople,youmadeajoke
whensomebodyaskedyouaboutheryousaid,IthinkthattheRussiaidiomis,thehusbandandwifeis
thesamedevil.AndwhatitmeansintheEnglishversionis,it'stwosidesofthesamecoin.Whatdidyou
meanbythat,andhowdidshedoasSecretaryofState?Youdealtwithherextensively.

VladimirPutin:Ididnotworkwithher,Lavrovdid.Askhim.Heissittinghere.

Iwasnotaforeignminister,butSergeiLavrovwas.Hewillsoontie[SovietForeignMinisterAndrei]
Gromyko.(AddressingSergeiLavrov.)Howlonghaveyoubeeninoffice?

IworkedwithBillClinton,althoughforaveryshorttime,andwehadaverygoodrelationship.Icaneven
saythatIamgratefultohimforcertainmomentsasIwasenteringthebigstageinpolitics.Onseveral
occasions,heshowedsignsofattention,respectformepersonally,aswellasforRussia.Iremember
thisandIamgratefultohim.

AboutMsClinton.PerhapsshehasherownviewonthedevelopmentofRussian-USrelations.Youknow,
thereissomethingIwouldliketodraw[your]attentionto,whichhasnothingtodowithRussian-US
relationsorwithnationalpolitics.Itisrelated,rather,topersonnelpolicy.

Inmyexperience,Ihaveoftenseenwhathappenswithpeoplebeforetheytakeonacertainjob
andafterward.Often,youcannotrecognisethem,becauseoncetheyreachanewlevelofresponsibility
theybegintotalkandthinkdifferently,theyevenlookdifferent.Weactontheassumptionthatthesense
ofresponsibilityoftheUSheadofstate,theheadofthecountryonwhichagreatdealintheworld
dependstoday,thatthissenseofresponsibilitywillencouragethenewlyelectedpresidenttocooperate
withRussiaand,Iwouldliketorepeat,buildamoresecureworld.

ThisemailisUNCLASSIFIED.

From: Gottemoeller,RoseE<GottemoellerRE@state.gov>
Senttime: 06/20/201610:33:21AM
To: Bob<robertotto25@gmail.com>Handler,JoshuaM<HandlerJM@state.gov>
Subject: RE:MD,ABM,INF,PGS-Putin'sCommentsattheSt.PeteEconomicForumonFriday-TranscriptfromKremlinWebsite

Sorry, Josh, should have read on: are these complete translations? Thanks, R

From:Handler,JoshuaM
Sent:Monday,June20,20169:58AM
To:Gottemoeller,RoseEAVCManagersPlusAVC-ESA-DLAVC-ESC-DLAVC-NRRC-StaffAVC-Press-DLAVC-SSD-DLBallas,Spiro
Bell,AlexandraFBoggs,PhillipWBorges,ManoelaGBurgess,JoshuaCCarhart,RobertNJrCope,AaronMDean,PaulBDodge,
SimonPDoell,CynthiaDolliff,PhillipRDonoho,GideonTEUR-PRA-AVCEUR-RPM-PMD-DLEUR-RUS-POL-DLFaithful,FrederickL
Fetter,SteveA.EOP/OSTPGelman,JeffreyDGodfrey,AnthonyFGoldstein,StephanieEGreaney,BrianEHalupka,NicholasA
Handler,JoshuaMHolmes,StephanieEHornbostel,CharlesPJensen,DanaEJonWolfsthalKavalec,KathleenAKile,JeffreyK
Lacey,EdwardLawson,KevinJMikulsky,AlexJ(Geneva)Nelson,RobertWOtto,RobertPark,RebeccaC.Parrish,ScottDPearce,
StacyL(London)Phelan,DonnaARoraff,BrianRRuss,LauraW(London)Rusten,LynnFSmilansky,GeneSolomon,HowardT
(Vilnius)Spykerman,JohnDTarar,Humza(Zed)Tefft,JohnFterHaar,MiaFTierney,JenniferMTratensek,AlexanderWright,
JaneyF
Subject:MD,ABM,INF,PGS-Putin'sCommentsattheSt.PeteEconomicForumonFriday-TranscriptfromKremlinWebsite

PutinmaderemarksaboutmissiledefenseandstrategicstabilityintwovenuesattheSt.Petersburg
InternationalEconomicFormthatmadeheadlinesovertheweekend.

AtthePlenarysessioninresponsetoFareedZakariasquestionherelatedthenegativeconsequencesof
theU.S.withdrawingfromtheABMTreaty.Laterinameetingwithmembersoftheinternationalpresshe
elaboratedfurther,mentioninghowtheyfeltdeceivedbyUSactions,andtalkedaboutthepotential
deploymentof1,000kmoffensivemissilesintheAegisashore(thoughdidntmentionINFbyname)and
USPGSprograms.Hiscommentsareworthacloseread.Somepressstoriesmergedthereportingon
thetwoevents.SeehighlightsandRFE/RLarticlebelow.

InthePlenarysessionhealsospokeabouttheU.S.beingtheonlysuperpower,andhisviewsontheU.S.
Presidentialcandidates.Tackedonthelatterattheendasitisrevealing.LinkstoEnglishlanguage
transcriptonKremlinsiteareprovidedasthewholepresentationisworthaskim.Anynumberoftopics
ontheinternationalagendaarecovered.

Thanks,

PlenarysessionofStPetersburgInternationalEconomicForum
VladimirPutinspokeattheplenarysessionoftheStPetersburgInternationalEconomicForum.

June17,201616:20StPetersburg

Plenarysessionmoderator,CNNhostFareedZakaria:Thankyoutoallthreeofyou:twopresidents,one
primeminister,thoughinItaly,youareallowedtosayPresidentRenzialso.Bytheformatwehave
agreedupon,whatIwilldoiswewillbeginthisdiscussionfirstwithourhostpresident,PresidentPutin,
andthenIwillwidenthatconversationtoincludePrimeMinisterRenziandPresidentNazarbayev.We
startedalittlebitlate,sowewillgoalittlebitlonger.

PresidentPutin,letmeaskyouaverysimplequestion.Since2014,youhavehadEuropeanUnion
sanctionsandUSsanctionsagainstRussia.NATOhasannouncedjustthisweekthatitisgoingtobuildup
forcesinstatesthatborderRussia.Russiahasannounceditsownbuildup.Arewesettlingintoalow-
grade,lower-levelcoldwarbetweentheWestandRussia?

VladimirPutin:IdonotwanttobelievethatwearemovingtowardsanotherColdWar,andIamsure
nobodywantsthis.Wecertainlydonot.Thereisnoneedforthis.Themainlogicbehindinternational
relationsdevelopmentisthatnomatterhowdramaticitmightseem,itisnotthelogicofglobal
confrontation.Whatistherootoftheproblem?

Iwilltellyou.Iwillhavetotakeyoubackintime.AfterthecollapseoftheSovietUnion,weexpected
overallprosperityandoveralltrust.Unfortunately,Russiahadtofacenumerouschallenges,speaking
inmodernterms:economic,socialanddomesticpolicy.Wecameupagainstseparatism,radicalism,
aggressionofinternationalterror,becauseundoubtedlywewerefightingagainstAlQaedamilitants
intheCaucasus,itisanobviousfact,andtherecanbenosecondthoughtsaboutit.Butinsteadofsupport
fromourpartnersinourstrugglewiththeseproblems,wesadlycameacrosssomethingdifferentsupport
fortheseparatists.Weweretold,Wedonotacceptyourseparatistsatthetoppoliticallevel,only
atthetechnological.

Verywell.Weappreciateit.Butwealsosawinformationsupport,financialsupportandadministrative
backup.

Later,afterwetackledthoseproblems,wentthroughserioushardships,wecametofaceanotherthing.
TheSovietUnionwasnomoretheWarsawPacthadceasedtoexist.Butforsomereason,NATO
continuestoexpanditsinfrastructuretowardsRussiasborders.Itstartedlongbeforeyesterday.
Montenegroisbecominga[NATO]member.WhoisthreateningMontenegro?Yousee,ourpositionis
beingtotallyignored.

Another,equallyimportant,orperhaps,themostimportantissueistheunilateralwithdrawal[oftheUS]
fromtheABMTreaty.TheABMTreatywasonceconcludedbetweentheSovietUnionandtheUnited
Statesforagoodreason.TworegionswereallowedtostayMoscowandthesiteofUSICBMsilos.

Thetreatywasdesignedtoprovideastrategicbalanceintheworld.However,theyunilaterallyquit
thetreaty,sayinginafriendlymanner,Thisisnotaimedagainstyou.Youwanttodevelopyouroffensive
arms,andweassumeitisnotaimedagainstus.

Youknowwhytheysaidso?Itissimple:nobodyexpectedRussiaintheearly2000s,whenitwas
strugglingwithitsdomesticproblems,tornapartbyinternalconflicts,politicalandeconomicproblems,
torturedbyterrorists,torestoreitsdefencesector.Clearly,nobodyexpectedustobeabletomaintainour
arsenals,letalonehavenewstrategicweapons.Theythoughttheywouldbuilduptheirmissiledefence
forcesunilaterallywhileourarsenalswouldbeshrinking.

AllofthiswasdoneunderthepretextofcombattingtheIraniannuclearthreat.Whathasbecome
oftheIraniannuclearthreatnow?Thereisnone,buttheprojectcontinues.Thisisthewayitis,step
bystep,oneafteranother,andsoon.

Thentheybegantosupportallkindsofcolourrevolutions,includingtheso-calledArabSpring.They
ferventlysupportedit.Howmanypositivetakesdidwehearonwhatwasgoingon?Whatdiditleadto?
Chaos.

Iamnotinterestedinlayingblamenow.Isimplywanttosaythatifthispolicyofunilateralactionscontinues
andifstepsintheinternationalarenathatareverysensitivetotheinternationalcommunityarenot
coordinatedthensuchconsequencesareinevitable.Conversely,ifwelistentooneanotherandseekout
abalanceofinterests,thiswillnothappen.Yes,itisadifficultprocess,theprocessofreachingagreement,
butitistheonlypathtoacceptablesolutions.

Ibelievethatifweensuresuchcooperation,therewillbenotalkofacoldwar.Afterall,sincetheArab
Spring,theyhavealreadyapproachedourborders.WhydidtheyhavetosupportthecoupinUkraine?
Ihaveoftenspokenaboutthis.Theinternalpoliticalsituationthereiscomplicatedandtheoppositionthatis
inpowernowwouldmostlikelyhavecometopowerdemocratically,throughelections.Thatsit.We
wouldhaveworkedwiththemaswehadwiththegovernmentthatwasinpowerbeforePresident
Yanukovych.

Butno,theyhadtoproceedwithacoup,casualties,unleashbloodshed,acivilwar,andscaretheRussian-
speakingpopulationofsoutheasternUkraineandCrimea.Allforthesakeofwhat?Andafterwehadto,
simplyhadtotakemeasurestoprotectcertainsocialgroups,theybegantoescalatethesituation,
ratchetinguptensions.Inmyopinion,thisisbeingdone,amongotherthings,tojustifytheexistence
oftheNorthAtlanticbloc.Theyneedanexternaladversary,anexternalenemyotherwisewhyisthis
organisationnecessaryinthefirstplace?ThereisnoWarsawPact,noSovietUnionwhoisitdirected
against?

Ifwecontinuetoactaccordingtothislogic,escalating[tensions]andredoublingeffortstoscareeach
other,thenonedayitwillcometoacoldwar.Ourlogicistotallydifferent.Itisfocusedoncooperation
andthesearchforcompromise.(Applause.)

FareedZakaria:Soletmeaskyou,MrPresident,thenwhatisthewayout?BecauseIsawaninterview
ofyoursthatyoudidwithDieWelt,theGermannewspaper,inwhichyousaid,thekeyproblemisthat
theMinskAccordshavenotbeenimplementedbytheGovernmentinUkraine,byKiev,theconstitutional
reforms.TheysayontheothersidethatinEasternUkraine,theviolencehasnotcomedown,
andtheseparatistsarenotrestrainingthemselves,andtheybelieveRussiashouldhelp.Sosinceneither
sideseemstobackdown,willthesanctionsjustcontinue,willthislow-gradecoldwarjustcontinue?What
isthewayout?

VladimirPutin:Anditisallaboutpeople,nomatterwhatyoucallthem.Itisaboutpeopletryingtoprotect
theirlegalrightsandinterests,whofearrepressioniftheseinterestsarenotupheldatthepoliticallevel.

IfwelookattheMinskagreements,thereareonlyafewpoints,andwediscussedthemallthrough
thenight.Whatwastheboneofcontention?Whataspectisofprimaryimportance?Andweagreed
ultimatelythatpoliticalsolutionsthatensurethesecurityofpeoplelivinginDonbasswerethepriority.

Whatarethesepoliticalsolutions?Theyarelaiddownindetailintheagreements.Constitutional
amendmentsthathadtobeadoptedbytheendof2015.Butwherearethey?Theyarenowheretobe
seen.Thelawonaspecialstatusoftheseterritories,whichwecallunrecognizedrepublics,shouldhave
beenputintopractice.Thelawhasbeenpassedbythecountrysparliamentbutstillhasntcomeinto
effect.Thereshouldhavebeenanamnestylaw.ItwaspassedbytheUkrainianparliamentbutwasnever
signedbythepresident,ithasnoeffect.

Whatkindofelectionsarewetalkingabout?Whatsortofelectionprocesscanbeorganisedduring
ananti-terroristoperation?Doanycountriesdothat?Wedonottalkaboutit,butdoesanyothercountry
holdelectioncampaignswhenananti-terroristoperationistakingplaceonitsterritory?

They[elections]havetobecancelledandourworkshouldfocusoneconomicandhumanitarian
restoration.Nothingisbeingdone,nothingatall.Postponingtheseproblemsoveron-goingviolence
onthefrontlinesisjustanexcuse.Whatishappeninginrealityisthatbothsidesareaccusingeachother
ofopeningfire.Whydoyouthinkitisseparatistswhoareshooting?Ifyouaskthem,theysay,Itis
Ukrainiangovernmentforces,theUkrainianarmy.

Onesideopensfire,theothersiderespondsthatswhatexchangingfiremeans.Doyouthinkthisis
agoodenoughreasontodelaypoliticalreforms?Onthecontrary,politicalreformsthatwillconstitute
thefoundationofafinalsettlementonsecurityareapressingpriority.

Somethingshavetobedoneinparallel.IagreewithMrPoroshenkothattheOSCEmissionhastobe
reinforcedtothepointofauthorizingOSCEobserverstocarryfirearms.Otherthingscanbedone
toimprovesecurity.Butwecannotaffordtocontinueputtingoffkeypoliticaldecisionbycitingthelack
ofsecurityinthearea.Thatsit.(Applause.)

..
http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/52178

Meetingwithheadsofinternationalnewsagencies
VladimirPutinhadameetingwithheadsofleadinginternationalnewsagencies.

June17,201623:55StPetersburg

SergeiMikhailov:LetusnowgobacktotheAmericancontinent.MalcolmKirkhasbeenrepresenting
CanadianPress,Canadasnationalnewsagency,forthreeyearsatourmeetings.OnSeptember1,
theagencywillcelebrateits100thanniversary,andIhopethatbeingahugefanofhockeyMrKirkwilluse
thiscentenaryasanopportunitytoplayhockey,andmaybeyouwouldeveninvitehimtoplayintheNight
HockeyLeague.

VladimirPutin:Withpleasure,butonlyifheplaysonmyteam,sinceCanadiansaresogoodaticehockey.

MalcolmKirk:Thankyou.WelookforwardtowelcomingRussiaandothercountriestoToronto
andtoCanadalaterthissummerfortheWorldCupofHockeysoitshouldbeagreatevent.Iveseen
afewofyourhockeymoves.Youknowhowtoscoreafewgoals,MrPresident.Soyourstatsarepretty
good.Thankyouagainforinvitingustothismeetingwithyou.Itisaprivilegeandwecertainlyappreciate
theopportunitytospendsometimewithyou.Iamgoingtoaskyou:therearesomereportsthatCanadais
underpressurefromtheUnitedStatestojoinBritain,GermanyandtheUSintheNATOinitiativethat
wouldseefourtroopbattalionsstationedinPolandandotherBalticstates.Thesecountriesmayfeelthisis
perhapsanactofdeterrenceintheeventthatRussiawastoperhapsinvadetheirterritory.Howwouldyou
viewCanadasparticipationinNATOplansshouldtheCanadiangovernmentmakethedecisiontodoso?
AndIguessgenerallyhowwouldyoucharacteriseRussiasrelationswithCanadanowthatwehaveanew
government?Thankyou.

VladimirPutin:Letmestartwiththelastpartofyourquestion.SincethenewPrimeMinistertookoffice
inCanada,therehasbeenachancethatrelationsbetweenRussiaandCanadacouldimprove.Thisiswhat
thePrimeMinistertoldmeinpersonattheG20SummitinAntalya.Hesaidhewantedtothinkofways
tofullyrestoreourrelations.Wewelcomeinitiativesofthiskindandarereadytocombineourefforts
indeliveringonthisobjective.Wewillworktogether,buttherearespecificstepsthatshouldbetaken
bybothsidesbeforewegetthere.

Asforthemissiledefencesystem,look,peopleinthisaudiencearealladultsandareveryexperienced.
IamnotaskingyoutomirroreverythingIamabouttosaywordforwordinyourcoverageortoinfluence
presscoverage.Ijustwanttotellyousomethinginperson,andremindyouofsomethings.Afterall,
theworldisfreeoflarge-scalewarsormilitaryconflict,andweallknowthat.Thisisduetotheso-called
strategicbalancethatemergedwhentwonuclearsuperpowersagreedtolimittheiroffensiveandmissile-
defencearsenals.Everyoneunderstandsthatifonesideismoresuccessfulindevelopingitsmissiledefence
thantheother,itgainsanedgeandhasthetemptationtobethefirsttousetheseweapons.Itisforthis
reasonthatmissiledefenceandagreementsinthisregardareoneofthecornerstonesofinternational
security.

Itisnotatallmyintentiontoberateoraccuseanyoneofanything,butwhenourUSpartnersunilaterally
withdrew[fromtheAnti-BallisticMissileTreaty],thiswasamajorblow.Infact,thiswasthefirstblow
tointernationalstabilityintermsofupsettingthestrategicbalanceofpower.Isaidbackthen,Weare
currentlyunabletodevelopthistechnologyduetothehighcosts,andsecondly,ithasyettobeseenhowit
willwork.Insteadofsimplysiphoningoffmoney,wewillgotheotherwaybyimprovingRussiasoffensive
weaponsinordertomaintainthebalance.Thiswastheonlypurpose,andithadnothingtodowith
threateninganyone.Hereiswhatweheardinresponse:Itistruethatourmissiledefencesystemisnot
intendedtoopposeRussia,andweassumethatwhatyoudoisnotagainstus,soyoumaydoasyou
please.

Icanexplainthisbysaying,asIdidattheplenarysessiontoday,thatitwastheearly2000swhenRussia
wasinaverycomplicatedsituation,witharuinedeconomy,anactualcivilwarandthefightagainst
terrorismintheCaucasus,thedefenceindustrycollapsingandtheArmedForcesdramaticallyweakened.
WhocouldimaginethenthatRussiawouldbuildupitsstrategicweapons?Theyprobablythoughtthat
theweaponsRussiainheritedfromtheSovietUnionwouldeventuallybecomedegraded.Andsotheytold
ustogoaheadanddowhatwewanted.However,weinformedthemaboutourplans,whichweare
implementing.Trustme:Russiahasmovedalongwayonthispath.Iwillnotreadouttheentirelist,but
Icantellyouthatwehavemodernisedourweaponsandarecreatingnew-generationsystems,not
tomentiontheweaponsthataredesignedtopenetrateballisticmissiledefencesystems.

Despiteallourobjectionsandoffersofrealcooperation,ourpartnersdonotwanttocooperatewithus
theyhaverejectedallofourproposalsandareworkingtotheirownplans.Ibelieveitinappropriatetosay
certainthingsinpublic,butIcanassureyou,andyoucanchoosetobelievemeornot,thatweoffered
practicalcooperationalternativesthatwererejected.

Eventually,theybuiltaBMDsysteminRomania.Theykeptsayingthattheyweredoingthistoprotect
themselvesagainstanIraniannuclearthreat.Butwhereisthisthreatnow?Itdoesnotexist.Wehave
signedatreatywithIran,anditwastheUnitedStatesthatinitiatedit.Wedidourbest,helpingasmuch
aswecould,butthetreatywasonlymadepossiblethroughthepositionoftheUS.Thissuccessshouldbe
creditedtoPresidentObama.Ibelieveitisagoodtreaty,whichhaseasedtensionsaroundIran,
andPresidentObamashoulddefinitelygivehimselfthecreditforthis.

Anyway,thereisnoIranianthreat,buttheBMDsystemisbeingbuiltnevertheless.Thismightmeanthat
wewererightwhenwesuspectedourpartnersofbeinginsincere,ofdeceivinguswithreferences
toanallegedIraniannuclearthreat.Yes,thisishowitwastheyattemptedtocheatusagain.

Theyhavebuiltthissystemandarenowdeliveringmissilesthere.Youprobablyknowthatthelaunch
systemsoftheTomahawksea-launchedintermediate-rangemissileswillbeusedtolaunchanti-missiles
withaneffectiverangeof500kilometres.However,technologydoesnotstandstill,andweknowmore
orlesspreciselywhentheAmericanswillcreateanewmissilethatwillhavearangeof1,000
kilometresormore.Fromthattimeon,theywillbeathreattoournucleararsenals.

Weknowwhatwillhappenandinwhichyear,andtheyknowweknowit.Theyarejustthrowingdust
inoureyes,asthesayinggoes,andyouinturnarethrowingdustintheeyesofyourpeople.Whatbothers
meisthatpeoplearenotawareofthedanger.Wefailtounderstandthatwearedraggingtheworldinto
acompletelynewdimension.Thisiswhatthisisallabout.Theyarepretendingasifnothingisgoing
on.Idonotevenknowhowtoputmymessageacross.

Wearebeingtoldthatthisispartofadefensive,notoffensive,capability,thatthesesystemsareintended
toensuredefenceagainstaggression.Thisisnottrue.Thisisnotthewaythingsare.Astrategicmissile
defencesystemispartofanoffensivestrategiccapability,andistightlylinkedtooffensivemissilestrike
systems.Somehigh-precisionweaponsareusedtocarryoutapre-emptivestrike,whileothers
serveasashieldagainstaretaliatorystrike,andstillotherscarryoutnuclearstrikes.Allthese
objectivesarerelated,andgohandinhandwiththeuseofhigh-precisionconventionalweapons.

Allright,evenifweputasidetheinterceptormissilesthatwillbedevelopedinthefuture,increasingly
threateningRussia,butthelaunchtubeswherethesemissilesarestored,asIsaid,arethesamethatare
usedonnavyshipstocarryTomahawkmissiles.Youcanreplaceinterceptormissileswith
Tomahawksinamatterofhoursandthesetubeswillnolongerbeusedtointerceptmissiles.
Howdoweknowwhatisinsidethem?Alltheyneedistochangethesoftware.Thiscanbedone
seamlesslyeventheRomanianswouldnotknowwhatisgoingon,sincetheycannotaccess
thesefacilities,right?Noonewillknow,neithertheRomanians,northePoles.Iknowhowthisis
done.Inmyopinion,thisisamajorthreat.

WhenwediscussedthiswithourUSpartners,theyhadtheideaofcreatingnonnuclearballistic
missiles.Wesaid,Listen,doyouunderstandwhatthiswouldbe?Imaginethatyoufire
asubmarine-launchorland-basedmissile.Aballisticmissileislaunched.Howdoweknow
whetheritiscarryinganuclearwarheadornot?Doyouunderstandthekindofthreatthiswould
create?Asfarasweknow,thisprogrammeiscurrentlysuspended.Theyhavestoppedit
fornow.However,theyarestillworkingonit.

Idonotknowwherethiswilltakeus.However,Russiawilldefinitelyhavetoretaliate.Iknowalreadythat
wewillbeaccusedofactingaggressively,eventhoughallwedoisrespond.Itisclearthatwewillhave
toensuresecurity,andnotjustinRussia,sinceensuringthestrategicbalanceofpowergloballyisamatter
ofgreatimportanceforus.

IwouldliketoconcludemyanswerwithwhatIstartedwith:itisthestrategicbalancethatensured
andguaranteedpeaceontheplanet,sparingusfrommajormilitaryconflictoverthelast70years.This
shouldbeviewedasgood,eventhoughitisbasedonmutualthreat.However,thismutualthreatbrought
aboutglobalpeacefordecades.Idonotknowhowanyonecouldwanttodestroyit.Ibelievethatthis
wouldbeverydangerous.NotonlydoIbelieveit,Iamcertainofit.

IfCanadawantstojoin,goahead,whatcanwesay?Wecannotorderyou.Doasyouplease,andwewill
doaswedeemnecessaryintermsofensuringoursecurity.

SergeiMikhailov:Thankyou,MrPresident.

http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/transcripts/52183

PutinCallsU.S.MissileShield'GreatDanger,'VowsRussian
Response
June18,2016RFE/RL

RussianPresidentVladimirPutincalledtheU.S.missileshieldinEasternEuropea"greatdanger"andsaid
Russiawillrespond.

RussianPresidentVladimirPutinhascalledtheU.S.missileshieldinEasternEuropea"greatdanger"and
vowedthatMoscowwillrespondbyenhancingitsownmissilestrikecapability.

WhileNATOinsiststheshieldisadefensivesystemaimedinpartatthwartingpossibleIranianmissile
strikes,PutinsaiditcanbeeasilyturnedintoanoffensivesystemthatcouldbeusedagainstRussia.

"Thosetubes,thosesiloswheremissilesareputareusedforTomahawks.TheseTomahawkscanbeput
thereinjustafewhours,andthenthesewillbenotmissileinterceptors,"Putintoldinternationalnews
leadersinSt.PetersburgonJune17.

"Youhaveonlytochangethesoftware,andthat'sit.Thisworkisabsolutelyinvisible.TheRomanianswon't
knowwhat'shappeningthere,"hesaid."Nobodywillknow,eitherRomaniansorPoles.Iknowhowit's
done."
"Inmyview,thisisreallydangerous,"hesaid,addingthat"weknowapproximatelywhichyearthe
Americanswillgetanewmissilethatwillhavearangeofnot500kilometersbut1,000kilometers,and
fromthatmomenttheywillstartthreateningournuclearpotential."

Putinaddedthat"wewillhavetorespond"tothethreats,although"Iknowinadvancethatwewillagainbe
accusedofaggressivebehavior"whenRussiaresponds.

"Wewillperfectourmissilestrikecapability,"toensurethat"strategicbalance"ismaintainedinEurope,he
said."Wewillhavetoensurenotonlyourownsecurity.Itisvitalforustoensurestrategicbalanceinthe
world."

PutinaddedthatheworriesthatthegrowingmilitaryconfrontationbetweenRussiaandtheUnitedStates
"isdraggingtheworldintoanewdimension."

"Peoplefeelnodanger,andthatisalarmingforme.Canweseethatwearedraggingtheworldintoan
utterlynewdimension?"

Putinsaidhedidn'tknowhowto"bringthishome"toleadersfromothercountries.

WithreportingbyReuters,Interfax,andTASS

http://www.rferl.mobi/a/putin-calls-us-missile-shield-eastern-europe-great-danger-vows-russian-
response/27806039.html

PlenarysessionofStPetersburgInternationalEconomicForum
VladimirPutinspokeattheplenarysessionoftheStPetersburgInternationalEconomicForum.

June17,201616:20StPetersburg

FareedZakaria:Letmeaskyou,MrPresident,aboutanotherdemocracythatishavingaverydifferent
kindofdrama.YoumadesomecommentsabouttheAmericanRepublicanpresumptivenominee,Donald
Trump.Youcalledhimbrilliant,outstanding,talented.Thesecommentswerereportedaroundtheworld.
Iwaswondering,whatinhimledyoutothatjudgement,anddoyoustillholdthatjudgement?

VladimirPutin:Youarewellknowninourcountry,youpersonally.NotonlyasahostofamajorTV
corporation,butalsoasanintellectual.Whyareyoudistortingeverything?Thejournalistinyouisgetting
thebetteroftheanalyst.Look,whatdidIsay?IsaidinpassingthatTrumpisavividpersonality.Ishenot?
Heis.Ididnotascribeanyothercharacteristicstohim.However,whatIdefinitelynoteandwhat
IdefinitelywelcomeandIseenothingwrongaboutthis,justtheoppositeisthatMrTrumpsaidthathe
isreadyforthefull-scalerestorationofRussian-USrelations.Whatiswrongwiththat?Weallwelcome
this!Dontyou?

Weneverinterfereintheinternalpoliticsofothercountries,especiallytheUnitedStates.However,wewill
workwithanypresidentthattheUSpeoplevotefor.AlthoughIdonotthink,bytheway,thatWell,they
lectureeveryoneonhowtoliveandondemocracy.Now,doyoureallythinkpresidentialelectionsthere
aredemocratic?Look,twiceinUShistoryapresidentwaselectedbyamajorityofelectors,butstanding
behindthoseelectorswasasmallernumberofvoters.Isthatdemocracy?Andwhen(sometimeswehave
debateswithourcolleaguesweneveraccuseanyoneofanything,wesimplyhavedebates)wearetold:
Donotmeddleinouraffairs.Mindyourownbusiness.Thisishowwedothings,wefeellikesaying:
Wellthen,donotmeddleinouraffairs.Whydoyou?Putyourownhouseinorderfirst.

But,toreiterate,indeed,thisisnoneofourbusinessalthough,inmyopinion,evenprosecutorstherechase
internationalobserversawayfrompollingstationsduringelectioncampaigns.USprosecutorsthreaten
tojailthem.However,thesearetheirownproblemsthisishowtheydothingsandtheylikeit.Americais
agreatpower,todayperhapstheonlysuperpower.Weacceptthis.WewanttoworkwiththeUnited
Statesandwearepreparedto.Nomatterhowtheseelectionsgo,eventuallytheywilltakeplace.There
willbea[new]headofstatewithextensivepowers.Therearecomplicatedinternalpoliticalandeconomic
processesatworkintheUnitedStates.TheworldneedsapowerfulcountryliketheUnitedStates,
andwealsoneedit.Butwedonotneedittocontinuouslyinterfereinouraffairs,tellingushowtolive,
andpreventingEuropefrombuildingarelationshipwithus.

HowarethesanctionsthatyouhavementionedaffectingtheUnitedStates?Innowaywhatsoever.It
couldnotcarelessaboutthesesanctionsbecausetheconsequencesofouractionsinresponsehaveno
impactonit.TheyimpactEuropebutnottheUnitedStates.Zeroeffect.However,theAmericansare
tellingtheirpartners:Bepatient.Whyshouldthey?Idonotunderstand.Iftheywantto,letthem.

Matteo,whyshouldtheybepatient?NowMatteowillexplainwhytheyshould.Heisabrilliantorator,
wereseeingitnow.Hisremarkswereexcellent.Iamsayingthissincerely,honestly.Italycanbeproud
ofitsPrimeMinister,really.Justbeautiful.

Wedonotlavishpraiseonanybody.Itsnoneofourbusiness.AsGermanssay,thisisnotourbeer.
Becausewhentheymaketheirchoice,wewillworkwithanypresidentwhohasreceivedthesupport
oftheAmericanpeople,inthehopethatitwillbeapersonwhoseekstodeveloprelationswithour
countryandhelpbuildamoresecureworld.

FareedZakaria:Justtobeclear,MrPresident,thewordbrilliantwasintheInterfaxtranslation,Irealize
thatothertranslationsmightsaybright,butIusedtheofficialInterfaxtranslation.Butletmeaskyou
aboutanotherpersonyouhavedealtwithagreatdeal.MrTrump,you'venevermet.HillaryClintonwas
SecretaryofState.InyourverylongquestionsandanswerswiththeRussianpeople,youmadeajoke
whensomebodyaskedyouaboutheryousaid,IthinkthattheRussiaidiomis,thehusbandandwifeis
thesamedevil.AndwhatitmeansintheEnglishversionis,it'stwosidesofthesamecoin.Whatdidyou
meanbythat,andhowdidshedoasSecretaryofState?Youdealtwithherextensively.

VladimirPutin:Ididnotworkwithher,Lavrovdid.Askhim.Heissittinghere.

Iwasnotaforeignminister,butSergeiLavrovwas.Hewillsoontie[SovietForeignMinisterAndrei]
Gromyko.(AddressingSergeiLavrov.)Howlonghaveyoubeeninoffice?

IworkedwithBillClinton,althoughforaveryshorttime,andwehadaverygoodrelationship.Icaneven
saythatIamgratefultohimforcertainmomentsasIwasenteringthebigstageinpolitics.Onseveral
occasions,heshowedsignsofattention,respectformepersonally,aswellasforRussia.Iremember
thisandIamgratefultohim.

AboutMsClinton.PerhapsshehasherownviewonthedevelopmentofRussian-USrelations.Youknow,
thereissomethingIwouldliketodraw[your]attentionto,whichhasnothingtodowithRussian-US
relationsorwithnationalpolitics.Itisrelated,rather,topersonnelpolicy.

Inmyexperience,Ihaveoftenseenwhathappenswithpeoplebeforetheytakeonacertainjob
andafterward.Often,youcannotrecognisethem,becauseoncetheyreachanewlevelofresponsibility
theybegintotalkandthinkdifferently,theyevenlookdifferent.Weactontheassumptionthatthesense
ofresponsibilityoftheUSheadofstate,theheadofthecountryonwhichagreatdealintheworld
dependstoday,thatthissenseofresponsibilitywillencouragethenewlyelectedpresidenttocooperate
withRussiaand,Iwouldliketorepeat,buildamoresecureworld.

ThisemailisUNCLASSIFIED.

From: StephenBurant<sburant@verizon.net>
Senttime: 06/19/201602:33:05PM
To: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Subject: Fw:Thisisunsettlingtosaytheleast............

AdrianaskedmetoaskyouforyourtakeontheWashingtonPostarticle.

OnSunday,June19,20168:26AM,StephenBurant<sburant@verizon.net>wrote:

IhadreadawhileagothatManafortwasadvisingYanukovychwhenthelatterwasinpower.Thatinformationcausedmetotakenotice.ItisonethingforUScitizenstobeadvisingBritishorLatinAmericanpoliticians,which
happensalot.Butsuchclosenesstocorrupt,authoritarianRussiansandUkrainians?No.

OnSaturday,June18,201610:39PM,AdrianHarmata<aharmata3@gmail.com>wrote:

HaveIbecomeimmunetoTrump?IamactuallymoretroubledbyManafort'srelationshipwiththeRussiansthanTrump'sties.......

HaveyouheardanythingfromBobO.onthisarticle?Iwonderhowmuchiscompletelyaccurate....

http://subscribe.washingtonpost.com/acquisition/?prompt=1&promo=digital03_paywall&oscode=RPWH&wpsrc=CM0000446&page=politics:article%20-%207b6c1998b7a0%20-%2020160617%20-%20inside-trumps-financial-
ties-to-russia-and-his-unusual-flattery-of-vladimir-putin&section=wp%20-
%20politics&prev=&geo=&ctype=article&signedin=logged%20out&mcount=5&sub=0&ismetered=1&destination=http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/inside-trumps-financial-ties-to-russia-and-his-unusual-flattery-of-vladimir-
putin/2016/06/17/dbdcaac8-31a6-11e6-8ff7-
7b6c1998b7a0_story.html&action=3&sub=0&mtr=1&mtrct=5&mtfn=1&t=10002&st=200&loc=1&mvw=5&wa=3&fr=0&dt=0&mx=0&pwo=1&rwb=0&sgn=0&v=2.3&acq_test=1#/paywall/offers/promo/digital03_paywall/oscode/RPWH?
wpsrc=CM0000446&page=politics:article%20-%207b6c1998b7a0%20-%2020160617%20-%20inside-trumps-financial-ties-to-russia-and-his-unusual-flattery-of-vladimir-putin&section=wp%20-
%20politics&prev=&geo=&ctype=article&signedin=logged%20out&mcount=5&sub=0&sub=0&ismetered=1&destination=https:%2F%2Fwww.washingtonpost.com%2Fpolitics%2Finside-trumps-financial-ties-to-russia-and-his-
unusual-flattery-of-vladimir-putin%2F2016%2F06%2F17%2Fdbdcaac8-31a6-11e6-8ff7-
7b6c1998b7a0_story.html&action=3&mtr=1&mtrct=5&mtfn=1&t=10002&st=200&loc=1&mvw=5&wa=3&fr=0&dt=0&mx=0&pwo=1&rwb=0&sgn=0&v=2.3&acq_test=1
From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 06/20/201609:33:31AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:[BB..resendingitemtothisbccsec][ALATESATEVENINGPOST'COMPARE&CONTRAST'][FantasyFactory][ANT/F]BBC:
Subject:
DE/FMSteinmeierhaswarnedNatoagainst"warmongering"(callingEEexercisesprovocative)..[HarshHarshReality][MK][byJSinObser

From:wolodymyrzarycky[mailto:wzarcusur@gmail.com]
Sent:Saturday,June18,20167:53PM
Subject:[BB..resendingitemtothisbccsec][ALATESATEVENINGPOST'COMPARE&CONTRAST'][FantasyFactory][ANT/F]BBC:
DE/FMSteinmeierhaswarnedNatoagainst"warmongering"(callingEEexercisesprovocative)..[HarshHarshReality][MK][byJSin
Observ...

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Date:Sat,Jun18,2016at10:05PM
Subject:[ALATESATEVENINGPOST'COMPARE&CONTRAST'][FantasyFactory][ANT/F]BBC:DE/FMSteinmeier
haswarnedNatoagainst"warmongering"(callingEEexercisesprovocative)..[HarshHarshReality][MK][byJSinObserver]
FalseFlags:TheKremlinsHiddenCyberHand[intheCyberCaliphatethreat](.speakingofprovocative)
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:AntonivFamily<antoniv_family@msn.com>
Date:Sat,Jun18,2016at5:09PM
Subject:SteinmeierhaswarnedNatoagainst"warmongering"[ED:IstheoldDE/SDFMfollowinginthefootstepsof
hisBoss,Gazprom'sGerrySchroeder??.orisheishisownman--ie--thegrandarchitectofadisastrousUA&GE
NATOMAPrefusalattheBucharestSummitof2008??]
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

NordStream2insteadofmilitaryexercises,isthathisidea?("makelove,notwar")

SteinmeierhaswarnedNatoagainst"warmongering",afteritconductedmilitaryexercisesin
EasternEurope.MrSteinmeiersaidthatextensiveNatomanoeuvreslaunchedthismonthwerecounterproductiveto
regionalsecurityandcouldinflametensionswithRussia.

HeurgedtheNatomilitaryalliancetoreplacetheexerciseswithmoredialogueandco-operationwithRussia.

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36566422

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:MiraKyzyk<mirakyzyk@gmail.com>
Date:Sat,Jun18,2016at5:32PM
Subject:FalseFlags:TheKremlinsHiddenCyberHand|Observer[ED/Notethesub-title:"TheIslamicStates
hackingarmydoesntactuallyworkforISISItspartofthesecretRussianonlineespionageeffortagainstthe
West"]

To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

FalseFlags:TheKremlinsHiddenCyberHand|Observer

http://observer.com/2016/06/false-flags-the-kremlins-hidden-cyber-hand/

OPINION

FalseFlags:TheKremlinsHiddenCyberHand
TheIslamicStateshackingarmydoesntactuallyworkforISISItspartofthesecret
RussianonlineespionageeffortagainsttheWest
ByJohnR.Schindler06/18/1612:15pm

RussianPresidentVladimirPutinattheKremlininMoscow.(Photo:YURIKOCHETKOV/AFP/GettyImages)

Fortwoyearstheso-calledCyberCaliphatehasbeentheonlineweaponbrandishedbytheIslamicState
againstitsenemies.Itshackingoffensive,includingaggressiveuseofsocialmedia,madefront-pagenews
aroundtheworld,heraldinganewfrontinthatmurderousgroupsworldwidejihadagainstinfidels.
PledgingsupporttoISIS,theCyberCaliphatehackedanddefacedU.S.Governmentwebsitesandsocial
mediafeeds,includingthoseofCentralCommand,thePentagonsMiddleEastheadquarters.Numerous
smallercyber-attacksfollowed.TheyalsohackedintoDepartmentofDefensedatabasesandpostedthe
personalinformationof1,400Americanmilitaryaffiliatesonline.
TheCyberCaliphatehasattackedtargetsinmanycountries,includingallegedlyaccessingtopsecretemails
belongingtoseniorBritishgovernmentofficials.ThemostpublicoftheirattackswastheApril
2015hijackingofseveralfeedsbelongingtotheFrenchchannelTV5Monde,whichincludeddefacingits
websitewiththesloganJesuisISIS.Thisassault,seenbymillionsofpeopleworldwide,gavethegroup
thenotorietyitcraved
TheAmerican-ledcoalitionagainstISIShastakentheCyberCaliphatethreatseriously,devotingsignificant
intelligenceresourcestotrackingandstudyingthegroup.WesternfearsincreasedthisAprilwith
theannouncementthatdisparateISIShackersweremerging,creatinganewUnitedCyberCaliphate,
designedtobeamajorexpansionoftheexistingCyberCaliphate.Drawingtogetherjihadisthackersfrom
manycountries,thiswouldconstituteamajoronlinethreat.

Inresponse,thePentagoninlateFebruaryannouncedtheunleashingofrealcyber-waragainstISIS,
includingattacksbyU.S.CyberCommandagainsttheIslamicstatescommunications,inanefforttodisrupt
theiractivitiesbothkineticandonline.NeitherarethePentagonseffortstoshutdowntheIslamicStates
onlineanticslimitedtotheInternet.InAugust2015,adrone-strikeatRaqqa,ISISsSyrianstronghold,
killedJunaidHussain,a21-year-oldBritishjihadistofPakistanioriginwhowasthegroupsbest-known
hacker.
However,therehavelongbeenwhispersthattheCyberCaliphateisnotwhatitclaimstobe.French
intelligenceexaminedthegroupcloselyaftertheTV5Mondeattackandconcludedthatthehackersinvolved
actuallyhadnothingtodowiththeIslamicState.Rather,theywereaffiliatesofahackingcollectiveknown
tobeaffiliatedwiththeKremlin,inparticularAPT28,anotoriousgroupthatsasecretarmofMoscow,
accordingtoWesternsecurityexperts.Inotherwords,theCyberCaliphateisaRussianintelligence
operationworkingthroughwhatspiestermacut-out.

CyberCaliphateisaRussianfalse-flagoperationnastier
intelligenceserviceswillmasqueradeasterroriststofurther
theiragenda.

U.S.secretagencies,includingtheNationalSecurityAgency,whichcontrolsAmericancyber-espionageand
workscloselywithCYBERCOM,cametosimilarconclusions.APT28isRussianintelligence,itsthat
simple,explainedanNSAexperttomerecently.Hencethemid-2015StateDepartmentsecurityreportthat,
whileassessingthejihadisthackersasaformidablethreat,neverthelessconcluded,AlthoughCyber
Caliphatedeclarestosupport[theIslamicState],therearenoindicationstechnicalorotherwisethatthe
groupsaretied.
ThishasbecometheconsensusviewamongWesternintelligenceservicesthathavecloselyexaminedISIS
hackingefforts.FromthenewsmagazineDerSpiegelwenowlearnthatGermanspyservicestoohave
concludedthattheCyberCaliphateisreallyasecretRussianoperation.Germanintelligenceassessesthatthe
Kremlinhassome4,000hackersonthepayrollofitssecurityagencies,includingtheGeneralStaffsMain
IntelligenceDirectorateorGRU,theForeignIntelligenceServiceorSVR,andtheFederalSecurityService
orFSB.Together,thisisaformidableoffensivecyberforcethatoperatesthroughfrontsandcut-outsto
attackWesterninterests.
Inotherwords,theCyberCaliphateisaRussianfalse-flagoperation.Althoughthatloadedtermhasbeen
hijackedbytinfoil-hatwearersandfringewebsites,includinglunaticswhothinkhorrificschoolshootings
didntactuallyhappen,itsaperfectlylegitimateespionagemethodofvenerablevintage.Spyagencies
routinelyposeasthirdpartiesforoperationalpurposessuchasagentrecruitmentandcovertaction.The
nastierintelligenceserviceswillevenmasqueradeasterroriststofurthertheiragenda.
NobodyismoreadeptatthisdodgypracticethantheRussians,whohavebeenusingfalse-flagsintheirspy
workformorethanacentury.Indeed,fortheKremlin,thiscommonplacepracticeconstitutesakeyelement
ofwhattheytermprovocation(provokatsiyainRussian),meaningtheuseofspiesandtheiragentstocause
secretpoliticaleffectsthatarehelpfultoMoscowandhurtfultoMoscowsenemies.
TheideathatVladimirPutinauthorizedhisintelligenceagenciestogotocyberwaragainsttheWestunderan
ISIScloakisanythingbutshockingtoanybodyinformedaboutlongstandingRussianespionagetradecraft,
whattheytellinglyrefertoaskonspiratsiya(yes,conspiracy).Theonlyinnovationhereistheonline
aspect.EverythingelsereflectsacenturyoflessonslearnedinKremlinspywork.Thesearethesortsof
clandestinethingsPutinwastrainedinandactuallydidasaKGBofficer.Andtherearenoformer
intelligenceofficers,astheRussianpresidenthasstated.
ThishasimplicationsfarbeyondtheIslamicState.NewsthisweekthatRussian-affiliatedhackershave
pillagedWashington,DC,includingraidingtheDemocraticNationalCommitteeandHillaryClintons
campaign,oughtnotsurprise.AmongtheitemspilferedfromtheDNCincludeoppositionresearchon
DonaldTrump,thepresumptiveRepublicanpresidentialnominee.

Americahasneglectedcounterintelligenceforsolongthatwe
haveallowedRussianintelligenceintotheheartofnotjustour
securityservicesbutofourdemocracyitself.

NowwelearnthattheseKremlinhackingeffortsextendfarbeyondtheDNC.TargetsinrecentRussian
cyber-attacksincludenumerousthink-tanks,lawfirms,lobbyists,andconsultants.Therewerealsoalmost
4,000Googleaccountstargetedinaspear-phishingcampaigntostealpersonalandprivilegedinformation.
Itsclearthatthiscoordinatedoffensiveaimedattheheartofournationscapitalstoleagreatdealofinside
knowledgeaboutAmericaspoliticalelitethatwouldbeofhighvaluetoanyforeignintelligenceservice.
InsideinformationabouthowAmericanpoliticsactuallyworksincludingsecretdealsbetweenpoliticians,
lobbyists,lawyers,andconsultantswoulddefinitelybesomethingPutinwouldwanttoknowashis
governmentseekstounderstandandinfluenceourpoliticalelite,includingwhoeveriselectedournext
president.
AmericahasneglectedcounterintelligenceforsolongthatwehaveallowedRussianintelligenceintotheheart
ofnotjustoursecurityservicesbutofourdemocracyitself.Aidedbytopsecretinformationstolenbytheir
guestEdwardSnowdenfromNSAabouthowU.S.cybersecurityworks,Kremlinspiesarenowfeastingon
whatevertheylikeinWashington.
IpreviouslyexplainedinthiscolumnhowHillaryClintonsemailshenaniganshelpedourenemies,including
Russia,whileharmingournationalsecurity.Nowitsevidentthatourpoliticalsystemhasbeenpenetrated
top-to-bottombyRussianspies.WhoevermovesintotheWhiteHouseinJanuarywillfacediggingoutfrom
asecuritydebacleofunprecedentedproportions,withtheKremlinholdingtheupperhandacrosstheboard.
SEEALSO:VLADIMIRPUTINHASEVERYTHINGHENEEDSTOBLACKMAILHILLARY
CLINTON
JohnSchindlerisasecurityexpertandformerNationalSecurityAgencyanalystandcounterintelligence
officer.Aspecialistinespionageandterrorism,hesalsobeenaNavyofficerandaWarCollegeprofessor.
HespublishedfourbooksandisonTwitterat@20committee.

From: WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>
Senttime: 06/18/201610:02:27AM
To: WayneandStacyAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>
Subject: InternetNotes18June2016
Attachments: IN18June16.docx

InternetNotes18June2016

MoreontheSt.PetersburgEconomicForum(PutinsspeechandQ&A:Russia/NATO/AnewColdWar?Ukraine/the
MinskagreementsSyria/Assad/ElectionsUSpresidentialelections/Russia-USThedopingscandal/Russiansoccer
fans)

StanovayaontheEconomicForumandforeignbusiness

SoloveyongesturestoAmerica

GermanforeignministeronNATOwarmongering

MoreontheSt.PetersburgEconomicForum(PutinsspeechandQ&A:Russia/NATO/AnewColdWar?Ukraine/the
MinskagreementsSyria/Assad/ElectionsUSpresidentialelections/Russia-USThedopingscandal/Russiansoccer
fans)

Seeyesterdaysnotes.

IdidabriefsummaryofPutinsspeechandincludedalinktotheRussianinyesterdaysnotes.HereareexcerptsfromanEnglish
versionofthespeech:http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/52178

Thestructuralproblemsaccumulatedbytheglobaleconomystillpersist,andwehavenotyetputoureconomyonthegrowthtrajectory.

Incidentally,currentgeopoliticaltensionsarerelated,tosomeextent,toeconomicuncertainty
andtheexhaustingoftheoldsourcesofgrowth.Thereisariskitmayincreaseorevenbeartificiallyprovoked.
Itisourcommoninteresttofindacreativeandconstructivewayoutofthissituation.
Theworldsleadingeconomiesarelookingforsourcesofgrowth,andtheyarelookingtocapitalise
ontheenormousexistingandgrowingpotentialofdigitalandindustrialtechnologies,robotics,energy,
biotechnology,medicineandotherfields.Discoveriesintheseareascanleadtotruetechnologicalrevolutions,
toanexplosivegrowthoflabourproductivity.Thisisalreadyhappeningandwillhappeninevitablythereis

impendingrestructuringofentireindustries,thedevaluationofmanyfacilitiesandassets.Thiswillalter
thedemandforskillsandcompetencies,andcompetitionwillescalateinbothtraditionalandemerging
markets.
Infact,eventodaywecanseeattemptstosecureorevenmonopolisethebenefitsofnextgeneration

technologies.This,Ithink,isthemotivebehindthecreationofrestrictedareaswithregulatorybarriers
toreducethecross-flowofbreakthroughtechnologiestootherregionsoftheworldwithfairlytightcontrolover
cooperationchainsformaximumgainfromtechnologicaladvances.Wehavediscussedthiswithour
colleaguessomesayitispossible.Ithinknot.Onecancontrolthespreadofcertaintechnologiesforawhile,

butintoday'sworlditwouldbenexttoimpossibletokeeptheminacontainedarea,evenalargearea.Yet,
theseeffortscouldleadtobasicsciences,nowopentosharingofknowledgeandinformationthroughjoint
projects,gettingclosedtoo,withseparationbarrierscomingup.
Over40statesandinternationalorganisationshaveexpressedthedesiretoestablishafreetradezonewith

theEurasianEconomicUnion.OurpartnersandwethinkthattheEAEUcanbecomeoneofthecentres
ofagreateremergentintegrationarea.Amongotherbenefits,wecanaddressambitioustechnological
problemswithinitsframework,promotetechnologicalprogressandattractnewmembers.Wediscussedthis
inAstanaquiterecently.NowweproposeconsideringtheprospectsformoreextensiveEurasianpartnership

involvingtheEAEUandcountrieswithwhichwealreadyhaveclosepartnershipChina,India,Pakistan
andIranandcertainlyourCISpartners,andotherinterestedcountriesandassociations.
AsearlyasJunewe,alongwithourChinesecolleagues,areplanningtostartofficialtalksontheformation
ofcomprehensivetradeandeconomicpartnershipinEurasiawiththeparticipationoftheEuropeanUnion

statesandChina.IexpectthatthiswillbecomeoneofthefirststepstowardtheformationofamajorEurasian
partnership.WewillcertainlyresumethediscussionofthismajorprojectattheEasternEconomicForum
inVladivostokinearlySeptember.Colleagues,Iwouldliketotakethisopportunitytoinviteallofyoutotake
partinit.

Friends,theprojectIhavejustmentionedthegreaterEurasiaprojectis,ofcourse,openforEurope,
andIamconvincedthatsuchcooperationmaybemutuallybeneficial.Despiteallofthewell-knownproblems
inourrelations,theEuropeanUnionremainsRussiaskeytradeandeconomicpartner.Itisournext-door
neighbourandwearenotindifferenttowhatishappeninginthelivesofourneighbours,Europeancountries

andtheEuropeaneconomy.
ThechallengeofthetechnologicalrevolutionandstructuralchangesarenolessurgentfortheEUthan
forRussia.IalsounderstandourEuropeanpartnerswhentheytalkaboutthecomplicateddecisionsforEurope
thatweremadeatthetalksontheformationoftheTrans-Atlanticpartnership.Obviously,Europehasavast

potentialandastakeonjustoneregionalassociationclearlynarrowsitsopportunities.Under
thecircumstances,itisdifficultforEuropetomaintainbalanceandpreservespaceforagainfulmanoeuvre.
AstherecentmeetingswithrepresentativesoftheGermanandFrenchbusinesscircleshaveshowed,
Europeanbusinessiswillingandreadytocooperatewiththiscountry.Politiciansshouldmeetbusinesses
halfwaybydisplayingwisdom,andafar-sightedandflexibleapproach.WemustreturntrusttoRussian-

Europeanrelationsandrestorethelevelofourcooperation.
Werememberhowitallstarted.Russiadidnotinitiatethecurrentbreakdown,disruption,problems
andsanctions.Allouractionshavebeenexclusivelyreciprocal.Butwedontholdagrudge,astheysay,
andarereadytomeetourEuropeanpartnershalfway.However,thiscanbynomeansbeaone-waystreet.

LetmerepeatthatweareinterestedinEuropeansjoiningtheprojectforamajorEurasianpartnership.Inthis
contextwewelcometheinitiativeofthePresidentofKazakhstanonholdingconsultationsbetween
theEurasianEconomicUnionandtheEU.Yesterdaywediscussedthisissueatthemeetingwith
thePresidentoftheEuropeanCommission.

Russiahasmanagedtoresolvethemosturgentcurrentproblemsintheeconomy.Wehopegrowthwill
resumeinthenearfuture.Wehavemaintainedreservesandsubstantiallyreducedcapitaldrainbyfivetimes
comparedwiththefirstquarterof2016.Inflationisgoingdownaswell.Ithasfallenalmostinhalfifwecompare
severalmonthsin20142015withthesameperiodin20152016.Ibelievethatitispossibletobringinflation

downto45percentasearlyasinthemid-termperspective.
Inaddition,itisnecessarytograduallydecreasethebudgetdeficitandthedependenceonrevenuesfrom
hydrocarbonsandotherrawmaterials.Thisincludescuttingournon-oilandgasdeficitatleastinhalf
inthenext5to7years.

Thecurrentslowdownisaglobaltrend.
Akeyfactorthatpredeterminestheoverallcompetitivenessoftheeconomy,marketdynamics,GDPgrowth
andhigherwagesislaborproductivity.Weneedhigherlaborproductivityatlargeandmedium-sized
enterprises:inindustry,intheconstructionandthetransportsectorsandinagriculturenolessthan5

percentayear.Thisappearstobeachallengingandevenunattainablegoal,ifwelookatwhatishappening
heretoday.Atthesametime,theexamplesofnumerousenterprises,aswellasofentiremanufacturing
sectors,suchastheaircraftindustry,thechemicalindustry,pharmaceuticsandagriculture,showthatthis
goalisquitefeasibleandrealistic.

Wewilldeveloplegislation,taxregulatorsandtechnicalstandardstoincentivisecompaniestoraiselabour
productivityandintroducelabourandenergysavingtechnology.Withthegrowthoflabourproductivity,
inefficientemploymentwillinevitablyshrink,whichmeanswewillneedtosubstantiallyincreasethelabour
marketsflexibility,toofferpeoplenewopportunities.Wewillbeabletoresolvethisproblemprimarily

bycreatingmorejobsatsmallandmedium-sizedbusinesses.Thenumberofpeople(whatIamgoingtosayis
veryimportant)employedatsmallandmedium-sizedbusinessesshouldgrowfromtoday's18million
byatleast1.4millionby2020andbymorethan3millionby2025.Itwillbedifficulttoincreasesupport
forsmallandmedium-sizedbusinesses,andstillhardertoconsistentlybuildanicheforitsoperation.Butit
needstobedone.

Ishouldaddthatourimportreplacementprogrammeisalsoaimedatmanufacturinggoodsthatare
competitiveontheglobalmarket.Andinthissense,Iwouldalsoliketostressthatimportreplacementis
animportantstageforexpandingexportsinsectorsotherthanrawmaterialsandfindingaplaceforour
companiesinglobalmanufacturingandtechnologicalalliancesandnotinsecondaryroles,butasstrong

andeffectivepartners.
Friends,wewillcontinuetofurtherliberaliseandimprovethebusinessclimate.Iknowagreatdealhasbeen
saidaboutthisatforumeventstodayandyesterday.Wewilltacklesystemicproblems,ofwhichwestillhave
plenty.Thisincludesimprovingtransparencyandbalancingrelationsbetweengovernmentagencies

andbusinesses.Theserelationsshouldbebuiltonunderstandingandmutualresponsibility,meticulous
observanceandcompliancewithlawsandrespectfortheinterestsofthestateandsociety,
andtheunconditionalvalueoftheinstitutionofprivateproperty.
Itisessentialtodrasticallyreduceillegalcriminalprosecutions.Furthermore,representativesofsecurity

andlawenforcementagenciesshouldbemadepersonallyliableforunjustifiedactionsleading
tothedestructionofabusinessenterprise.Ibelievethatthisliabilitycanbecriminal.
Irealizethatthisisaverysensitiveissue.Wecannotandshouldnotbindourlawenforcementagencieshand
andfoot.However,withoutadoubt,thereisaneedforbalancehere,forafirmbarriertoanyabusesofpower.

TheleadershipoftheProsecutorGeneralsOffice,theInvestigativeCommittee,theInteriorMinistry
andtheFederalSecurityServiceshouldcontinuouslymonitorthesituationonthegroundand,ifnecessary,
takemeasurestoimprovelegislation.
Iasktheworkinggrouponlawenforcementinentrepreneurialactivity,whichisheadedbyChiefofStaff

ofthePresidentialExecutiveOfficeSergeiIvanov,tofocusontheseissuesaswell.IshouldaddthatIhave
alreadysubmittedtoparliamentapackageofdraftlawspreparedbytheworkinggroup,designedtohumanise
theso-calledeconomicstatutes[oftheCriminalCode].Thatsaid,itisalsoimportanttoguaranteebusinesses
andallcitizenstherighttofairandimpartialdefenceincourt.

TheRussianjudicialcommunityhasdoneagooddealrecentlytoimprovethequalityofthecourtsystem.
ThemergingoftheSupremeandtheHigherArbitrationcourtshasplayedapositiveroleinensuring
theuniformityoflawenforcement.Ibelieveitisnecessarytomovefurthertowardenhancingtheresponsibility
ofjudgesandmakingthejudicialprocessmoretransparent.

Amajorroleincreatingafavorablebusinessenvironment,withoutadoubt,belongstoRussianregions.Iknow
thatthiswasdiscussedatforumeventsinthemorning,andtheresultsoftheannualnationalinvestment
climateratingswereannounced.Iwouldliketojoinincongratulatingthewinnersandremindyouthattheseare
TatarstanandtheBelgorodandKalugaregions.Iwouldalsoliketonotethesignificantprogressmade

bytheTula,Vladimir,Tyumen,Kirov,LipetskandOrelregions,andthecityofMoscow.
Whatstandsouthere?Judgingbytheresults,acoregroupofleadershasalreadyemerged,whoareinvariably
atthetopofrankings.Thenaturalquestionis:Wherearetheothers?IasktheGovernment,inconjunctionwith
businesscommunities,toconsideradditionalmechanismstorewardthebestregionaladministrativeteams.
Ontheotherhand,wewilltakeseriousmeasures,includingdismissals,withregardtoregionalleaderswhodo

notunderstandthatbusinesssupportisamajorresourceforregionalandnationaldevelopment.Iwouldlike
mycolleaguesintheregions,aboveall,regionalleaderstohearme.Wewillseriouslyanalysewhatis
happeninginthissphereineachRussianregionanddiscusstheissueindepthintheautumn.
Ladiesandgentlemen,IhavealreadytalkedaboutRussiasparticipationincooperativescientificresearch

projects,inparticularwithEuropeancountries.Itisessentialtoaddthatwehaveacoreadvantages
inphysics,mathematicsandchemistry.Asyouknow,recentlywehonouredscientistswhowontheNational
Award,whohavemadebrilliantbreakthroughsinbiology,geneticsandmedicine.Russianmicrobiologistshave
developed,forexample,aneffectivevaccineagainstEbola.Nationalcompaniesaregoingtobringanentireline

ofunmannedvehiclestothemarketandareworkingonenergydistributionandstorage,anddigitalsea
navigationsystems.Wehavepracticallyputinplaceatechnologicaldevelopmentmanagementsystem.What
doesthisentailandwhatwouldIliketosayinthiscontext?
First.TherecentlyformedTechnologyDevelopmentAgencywillhelpapplycurrentresearchtoreal

manufacturingandsetupjointventureswithforeignpartners.
Second.Anothermechanismwillbeinusestartingin2019.Majormanufacturerswillbemadelegallybound
tousethemostadvancedtechnologiesmeetingthehighestenvironmentalstandards.Hopefully,thiswillgive
aseriousboosttoindustrialmodernisation.Manyneighbouringcountriesintroducedsuchrequirementslong

ago.Wehavehadtoputoffthesechangesduetoproblemsintherealeconomicsectors,butwecantkeep
postponingitanymore.Ourbusinesscolleaguesknowthisandmustbeprepared.
Andfinally,third.TheNationalTechnologyInitiativecoversprojectsofthefuturebasedontechnologiesthatwill
createfundamentallynewmarketsinadecadeortwo.IwouldliketoasktheGovernmenttopromptlyremove

administrative,legislativeandotherobstaclesblockingthedevelopmentoffuturemarkets.Itisessential
tobackuptechnologicaldevelopmentwithfinancialresources.Therefore,thekeytaskfacingtheoverhauled
Vnesheconombankwillbetosupportlong-termprojects,attractiveprojectsinthishigh-techsector.
Weclearlyunderstandthatitispeoplewhocreateandusetechnologies.Talentedresearchers,qualified

engineersandworkersplayacrucialroleinmakingthenationaleconomycompetitive.Thereforeeducationis
somethingweshouldpayparticularattentiontointhenextfewyears.
Colleagues,obviouslytheissuesthatwearefacingcallfornewapproachestowarddevelopment
management,andherewearedeterminedtomakeactiveuseoftheprojectprinciple.Apresidentialcouncil

forstrategicdevelopmentandpriorityprojectswillbecreatedinthenearfuture.Itwillbeheadedbyyour
humbleservant,whilethecouncilpresidiumwillbeledbyPrimeMinisterDmitryMedvedev.
Thecouncilwilldealwithkeyprojectsaimedateffectingstructuralchangesintheeconomyandthesocial
sphere,andincreasinggrowthrates.Ihavespokenaboutsomeoftheseprojectstoday:raisinglabour
productivity,thebusinessclimate,supportforsmallandmedium-sizedbusiness,andexportsupport,among

others.
Plenarysessionmoderator,CNNhostFareedZakaria:Thankyoutoallthreeofyou:twopresidents,one
primeminister,thoughinItaly,youareallowedtosayPresidentRenzialso.Bytheformatwehaveagreed
upon,whatIwilldoiswewillbeginthisdiscussionfirstwithourhostpresident,PresidentPutin,andthenIwill
widenthatconversationtoincludePrimeMinisterRenziandPresidentNazarbayev.Westartedalittlebitlate,
sowewillgoalittlebitlonger.
PresidentPutin,letmeaskyouaverysimplequestion.Since2014,youhavehadEuropeanUnionsanctions
andUSsanctionsagainstRussia.NATOhasannouncedjustthisweekthatitisgoingtobuildupforces

instatesthatborderRussia.Russiahasannounceditsownbuildup.Arewesettlingintoalow-grade,lower-
levelcoldwarbetweentheWestandRussia?
VladimirPutin:IdonotwanttobelievethatwearemovingtowardsanotherColdWar,andIamsure
nobodywantsthis.Wecertainlydonot.Thereisnoneedforthis.Themainlogicbehindinternational
relationsdevelopmentisthatnomatterhowdramaticitmightseem,itisnotthelogicofglobal
confrontation.Whatistherootoftheproblem?
Iwilltellyou.Iwillhavetotakeyoubackintime.AfterthecollapseoftheSovietUnion,weexpectedoverall
prosperityandoveralltrust.Unfortunately,Russiahadtofacenumerouschallenges,speakinginmodernterms:

economic,socialanddomesticpolicy.Wecameupagainstseparatism,radicalism,aggressionofinternational
terror,becauseundoubtedlywewerefightingagainstAlQaedamilitantsintheCaucasus,itisanobviousfact,
andtherecanbenosecondthoughtsaboutit.Butinsteadofsupportfromourpartnersinourstrugglewith
theseproblems,wesadlycameacrosssomethingdifferentsupportfortheseparatists.Weweretold,Wedo

notacceptyourseparatistsatthetoppoliticallevel,onlyatthetechnological.
Verywell.Weappreciateit.Butwealsosawinformationsupport,financialsupportandadministrativebackup.
Later,afterwetackledthoseproblems,wentthroughserioushardships,wecametofaceanotherthing.
TheSovietUnionwasnomoretheWarsawPacthadceasedtoexist.Butforsomereason,NATOcontinues

toexpanditsinfrastructuretowardsRussiasborders.Itstartedlongbeforeyesterday.Montenegroisbecoming
a[NATO]member.WhoisthreateningMontenegro?Yousee,ourpositionisbeingtotallyignored.
Another,equallyimportant,orperhaps,themostimportantissueistheunilateralwithdrawal[oftheUS]from
theABMTreaty.TheABMTreatywasonceconcludedbetweentheSovietUnionandtheUnitedStates

foragoodreason.TworegionswereallowedtostayMoscowandthesiteofUSICBMsilos.
Thetreatywasdesignedtoprovideastrategicbalanceintheworld.However,theyunilaterallyquitthetreaty,
sayinginafriendlymanner,Thisisnotaimedagainstyou.Youwanttodevelopyouroffensivearms,andwe
assumeitisnotaimedagainstus.

Youknowwhytheysaidso?Itissimple:nobodyexpectedRussiaintheearly2000s,whenitwasstruggling
withitsdomesticproblems,tornapartbyinternalconflicts,politicalandeconomicproblems,tortured
byterrorists,torestoreitsdefencesector.Clearly,nobodyexpectedustobeabletomaintainourarsenals,let
alonehavenewstrategicweapons.Theythoughttheywouldbuilduptheirmissiledefenceforcesunilaterally
whileourarsenalswouldbeshrinking.

AllofthiswasdoneunderthepretextofcombattingtheIraniannuclearthreat.WhathasbecomeoftheIranian
nuclearthreatnow?Thereisnone,buttheprojectcontinues.Thisisthewayitis,stepbystep,oneafter
another,andsoon.
Thentheybegantosupportallkindsofcolourrevolutions,includingtheso-calledArabSpring.Theyfervently

supportedit.Howmanypositivetakesdidwehearonwhatwasgoingon?Whatdiditleadto?Chaos.
Iamnotinterestedinlayingblamenow.Isimplywanttosaythatifthispolicyofunilateralactionscontinues
andifstepsintheinternationalarenathatareverysensitivetotheinternationalcommunityarenotcoordinated
thensuchconsequencesareinevitable.Conversely,ifwelistentooneanotherandseekoutabalance

ofinterests,thiswillnothappen.Yes,itisadifficultprocess,theprocessofreachingagreement,butitis
theonlypathtoacceptablesolutions.
Ibelievethatifweensuresuchcooperation,therewillbenotalkofacoldwar.Afterall,sincetheArabSpring,
theyhavealreadyapproachedourborders.WhydidtheyhavetosupportthecoupinUkraine?Ihaveoften

spokenaboutthis.Theinternalpoliticalsituationthereiscomplicatedandtheoppositionthatisinpowernow
wouldmostlikelyhavecometopowerdemocratically,throughelections.Thatsit.Wewouldhaveworkedwith
themaswehadwiththegovernmentthatwasinpowerbeforePresidentYanukovych.
Butno,theyhadtoproceedwithacoup,casualties,unleashbloodshed,acivilwar,andscaretheRussian-

speakingpopulationofsoutheasternUkraineandCrimea.Allforthesakeofwhat?Andafterwehadto,simply
hadtotakemeasurestoprotectcertainsocialgroups,theybegantoescalatethesituation,ratchetingup
tensions.Inmyopinion,thisisbeingdone,amongotherthings,tojustifytheexistenceoftheNorthAtlantic
bloc.Theyneedanexternaladversary,anexternalenemyotherwisewhyisthisorganisationnecessary

inthefirstplace?ThereisnoWarsawPact,noSovietUnionwhoisitdirectedagainst?
Ifwecontinuetoactaccordingtothislogic,escalating[tensions]andredoublingeffortstoscareeachother,
thenonedayitwillcometoacoldwar.Ourlogicistotallydifferent.Itisfocusedoncooperationandthesearch
forcompromise.(Applause.)

FareedZakaria:Soletmeaskyou,MrPresident,thenwhatisthewayout?BecauseIsawaninterview
ofyoursthatyoudidwithDieWelt,theGermannewspaper,inwhichyousaid,thekeyproblemisthat
theMinskAccordshavenotbeenimplementedbytheGovernmentinUkraine,byKiev,theconstitutional
reforms.TheysayontheothersidethatinEasternUkraine,theviolencehasnotcomedown,
andtheseparatistsarenotrestrainingthemselves,andtheybelieveRussiashouldhelp.Sosinceneither
sideseemstobackdown,willthesanctionsjustcontinue,willthislow-gradecoldwarjustcontinue?What
isthewayout?
VladimirPutin:Anditisallaboutpeople,nomatterwhatyoucallthem.Itisaboutpeopletryingtoprotect
theirlegalrightsandinterests,whofearrepressioniftheseinterestsarenotupheldatthepoliticallevel.
IfwelookattheMinskagreements,thereareonlyafewpoints,andwediscussedthemallthroughthenight.
Whatwastheboneofcontention?Whataspectisofprimaryimportance?Andweagreedultimatelythat
politicalsolutionsthatensurethesecurityofpeoplelivinginDonbasswerethepriority.
Whatarethesepoliticalsolutions?Theyarelaiddownindetailintheagreements.Constitutionalamendments

thathadtobeadoptedbytheendof2015.Butwherearethey?Theyarenowheretobeseen.Thelaw
onaspecialstatusoftheseterritories,whichwecallunrecognizedrepublics,shouldhavebeenputinto
practice.Thelawhasbeenpassedbythecountrysparliamentbutstillhasntcomeintoeffect.Thereshould
havebeenanamnestylaw.ItwaspassedbytheUkrainianparliamentbutwasneversignedbythepresident,it

hasnoeffect.
Whatkindofelectionsarewetalkingabout?Whatsortofelectionprocesscanbeorganisedduringananti-
terroristoperation?Doanycountriesdothat?Wedonottalkaboutit,butdoesanyothercountryholdelection
campaignswhenananti-terroristoperationistakingplaceonitsterritory?

They[elections]havetobecancelledandourworkshouldfocusoneconomicandhumanitarianrestoration.
Nothingisbeingdone,nothingatall.Postponingtheseproblemsoveron-goingviolenceonthefrontlinesisjust
anexcuse.Whatishappeninginrealityisthatbothsidesareaccusingeachotherofopeningfire.Whydoyou
thinkitisseparatistswhoareshooting?Ifyouaskthem,theysay,ItisUkrainiangovernmentforces,

theUkrainianarmy.
Onesideopensfire,theothersiderespondsthatswhatexchangingfiremeans.Doyouthinkthisisagood
enoughreasontodelaypoliticalreforms?Onthecontrary,politicalreformsthatwillconstitutethefoundation
ofafinalsettlementonsecurityareapressingpriority.
Somethingshavetobedoneinparallel.IagreewithMrPoroshenkothattheOSCEmissionhastobe
reinforcedtothepointofauthorizingOSCEobserverstocarryfirearms.Otherthingscanbedonetoimprove
security.Butwecannotaffordtocontinueputtingoffkeypoliticaldecisionbycitingthelackofsecurity

inthearea.Thatsit.(Applause.)
FareedZakaria:Therearesomanyareastocoverwithyou,MrPresident,soletmegototheMiddle
East,whereRussiahashadaforcefulinterventiontobolstertheAssadregime.PresidentAssadnowsays
thathisgoalistotakebackeverysquareinchofhisterritory.DoyoubelievethatthesolutioninSyriais
thattheAssadregimeshouldtakebackandgoverneverysquareinchofSyria?
VladimirPutin:IthinkthattheproblemsofSyria,ofcourse,concernprimarilytheanti-terroriststruggle,
butthereismoretoit.ItgoeswithoutsayingthattheSyrianconflictisrootedincontradictionswithin
Syriansociety,andPresidentBasharal-Assadunderstandsthisverywell.Thetaskisnotjusttoexpand
controlovervariousterritories,althoughthisisveryimportant.Thepointistoensuretheconfidence
oftheentiresocietyandtrustbetweendifferentpartsofthissociety,andtoestablishonthisfoundation
amodernandefficientgovernmentthatwillbetrustedbythecountrysentirepopulation.Andpolitical
negotiationsaretheonlyroadtothis.Wehaveurgedthismorethanonce.Presidental-Assadalsospoke
aboutthisheacceptsthisprocess.
Whatneedstobedonetoday?ItisnecessarytojoinmoreactivelytheprocessofformingthenewConstitution
andtoconduct,onthisbasis,futureelections,bothpresidentialandparliamentary.WhenPresidental-Assad

wasinMoscow,wespokeaboutthiswithhimandhefullyagreedwiththis.Moreover,itisextremelyimportant
toconducttheelectionsunderstrictinternationalcontrol,withtheparticipationoftheUnitedNations.

YesterdaywediscussedthisissueindetailwithMrdeMisturaandtheUNSecretary-General.Theyallagree
withthis,butweneedaction.Wehopeverymuchthatourpartners,primarilyfromtheUnitedStates,willwork

withtheiralliesthatsupporttheoppositiontoencourageconstructivecooperationwiththeSyrianauthorities.
Whatdowemeanbythis?Ingeneral,whenIaskmycolleagues:Whyareyoudoingthis?theyreply:

Toasserttheprinciplesofdemocracy.Presidental-Assadsregimeisnotdemocraticandthetriumph
ofdemocracymustbeensured.Fine.Isdemocracyeverywherethere?No,notyetbutdemocracyshould

existinSyria.Ok.Andhowdoyoumakesocietydemocratic?Isitonlypossibletoachievethisbyforce
ofarmsorsimplybyforce?No,thismaybedoneonlywiththehelpofdemocraticinstitutions

andprocedures.Andwhataretheyallabout?Thereisnomoredemocraticwayofformingagovernmentthan
electionsonthebasisoffundamentallaw:aConstitutionthatisformulatedinaclearway,thatistransparent

andacceptedbytheoverwhelmingmajorityofsociety.PasstheConstitutionandholdelectionsonitsbasis.
Whatsbadaboutthis,especiallyiftheyareheldunderinternationalcontrol?

Occasionallywehearthatsomecountriesoftheregiondonotfullyunderstandwhatdemocracyis.Dowe
wanttoreplaceoneundemocraticregimewithanotherundemocraticone?Andifwestillwanttopromote

theprincipleofdemocracyletsdothisbydemocraticmeans.Butconsideringthisisacomplicatedprocess
andresultswillnotcometomorroworthedayaftertomorrowbutwillrequiretime,whilewestillneedtodo

somethingtoday,Iagreewiththeproposalsofourpartners,primarilyourAmericanpartnersthatsuggest
(Idontknow,maybeImsayingtoomuchalthough,ontheotherhand,thisUSproposalisknownintheregion,

andthenegotiatorsofbothsidesthegovernmentandtheoppositionarefamiliarwithitandIconsiderit
absolutelyacceptable),theysuggestedconsideringthepossibilityofbringingrepresentativesoftheopposition

intoexistingpowerstructures,forinstance,theGovernment.Itisnecessarytothinkaboutwhatpowersthis
Governmentwillhave.

However,itisimportantnottogotoofar.Itisnecessarytoproceedfromthecurrentrealitiesandtorefrainfrom
declaringunfeasible,unrealisticgoals.ManyofourpartnersaresayingthatAssadshouldgo.Todaytheyare

sayingno,letsrestructuregoverninginstitutionsinsuchandsuchaway,butinpracticaltermsitwillalso
meanhisdeparture.Butthisisalsounrealistic.Therefore,itisnecessarytoactcarefully,stepbystep,

graduallywinningtheconfidenceofallsidestotheconflict.
Ifthishappens,andIthinkthiswillhappeninanyeventandthesoonerthebetter,itwillbepossibletogo

furtherandspeakbothaboutsubsequentelectionsandafinalsettlement.Themainpointistoprevent
thecountryscollapse.Andifthingscontinuetogoastheyaretoday,collapsewillbecomeinevitable.Andthis
istheworst-casescenariobecausewecannotassumethatafterthecountryscollapsesomequasi-state

formationswillco-existinpeaceandharmony.No,thiswillbeadestabilisingfactorfortheregionandtherest
oftheworld.

FareedZakaria:Letmeaskyou,MrPresident,aboutanotherdemocracythatishavingaverydifferent
kindofdrama.YoumadesomecommentsabouttheAmericanRepublicanpresumptivenominee,Donald
Trump.Youcalledhimbrilliant,outstanding,talented.Thesecommentswerereportedaroundtheworld.
Iwaswondering,whatinhimledyoutothatjudgement,anddoyoustillholdthatjudgement?
VladimirPutin:Youarewellknowninourcountry,youpersonally.NotonlyasahostofamajorTV
corporation,butalsoasanintellectual.Whyareyoudistortingeverything?Thejournalistinyouisgetting
thebetteroftheanalyst.Look,whatdidIsay?IsaidinpassingthatTrumpisavividpersonality.Ishenot?
Heis.Ididnotascribeanyothercharacteristicstohim.However,whatIdefinitelynoteandwhat
IdefinitelywelcomeandIseenothingwrongaboutthis,justtheoppositeisthatMrTrumpsaidthathe
isreadyforthefull-scalerestorationofRussian-USrelations.Whatiswrongwiththat?Weallwelcome
this!Dontyou?
Weneverinterfereintheinternalpoliticsofothercountries,especiallytheUnitedStates.However,wewillwork

withanypresidentthattheUSpeoplevotefor.AlthoughIdonotthink,bytheway,thatWell,theylecture
everyoneonhowtoliveandondemocracy.Now,doyoureallythinkpresidentialelectionsthereare

democratic?Look,twiceinUShistoryapresidentwaselectedbyamajorityofelectors,butstandingbehind
thoseelectorswasasmallernumberofvoters.Isthatdemocracy?Andwhen(sometimeswehavedebates

withourcolleaguesweneveraccuseanyoneofanything,wesimplyhavedebates)wearetold:Donot
meddleinouraffairs.Mindyourownbusiness.Thisishowwedothings,wefeellikesaying:Wellthen,do

notmeddleinouraffairs.Whydoyou?Putyourownhouseinorderfirst.
But,toreiterate,indeed,thisisnoneofourbusinessalthough,inmyopinion,evenprosecutorstherechase

internationalobserversawayfrompollingstationsduringelectioncampaigns.USprosecutorsthreatentojail
them.However,thesearetheirownproblemsthisishowtheydothingsandtheylikeit.Americaisagreat

power,todayperhapstheonlysuperpower.Weacceptthis.WewanttoworkwiththeUnitedStatesandwe
arepreparedto.Nomatterhowtheseelectionsgo,eventuallytheywilltakeplace.Therewillbea[new]head

ofstatewithextensivepowers.Therearecomplicatedinternalpoliticalandeconomicprocessesatwork
intheUnitedStates.TheworldneedsapowerfulcountryliketheUnitedStates,andwealsoneedit.Butwe

donotneedittocontinuouslyinterfereinouraffairs,tellingushowtolive,andpreventingEuropefrombuilding
arelationshipwithus.

HowarethesanctionsthatyouhavementionedaffectingtheUnitedStates?Innowaywhatsoever.Itcouldnot
carelessaboutthesesanctionsbecausetheconsequencesofouractionsinresponsehavenoimpactonit.

TheyimpactEuropebutnottheUnitedStates.Zeroeffect.However,theAmericansaretellingtheirpartners:
Bepatient.Whyshouldthey?Idonotunderstand.Iftheywantto,letthem.
Wedonotlavishpraiseonanybody.Itsnoneofourbusiness.AsGermanssay,thisisnotourbeer.
Becausewhentheymaketheirchoice,wewillworkwithanypresidentwhohasreceivedthesupport
oftheAmericanpeople,inthehopethatitwillbeapersonwhoseekstodeveloprelationswithourcountry

andhelpbuildamoresecureworld.
FareedZakaria:Justtobeclear,MrPresident,thewordbrilliantwasintheInterfaxtranslation,Irealize
thatothertranslationsmightsaybright,butIusedtheofficialInterfaxtranslation.Butletmeaskyou
aboutanotherpersonyouhavedealtwithagreatdeal.MrTrump,you'venevermet.HillaryClintonwas
SecretaryofState.InyourverylongquestionsandanswerswiththeRussianpeople,youmadeajoke
whensomebodyaskedyouaboutheryousaid,IthinkthattheRussiaidiomis,thehusbandandwifeis
thesamedevil.AndwhatitmeansintheEnglishversionis,it'stwosidesofthesamecoin.Whatdidyou
meanbythat,andhowdidshedoasSecretaryofState?Youdealtwithherextensively.
VladimirPutin:Ididnotworkwithher,Lavrovdid.Askhim.Heissittinghere.
Iwasnotaforeignminister,butSergeiLavrovwas.Hewillsoontie[SovietForeignMinisterAndrei]Gromyko.

(AddressingSergeiLavrov.)Howlonghaveyoubeeninoffice?
IworkedwithBillClinton,althoughforaveryshorttime,andwehadaverygoodrelationship.Icanevensay

thatIamgratefultohimforcertainmomentsasIwasenteringthebigstageinpolitics.Onseveraloccasions,
heshowedsignsofattention,respectformepersonally,aswellasforRussia.IrememberthisandIam

gratefultohim.
AboutMsClinton.PerhapsshehasherownviewonthedevelopmentofRussian-USrelations.Youknow,there

issomethingIwouldliketodraw[your]attentionto,whichhasnothingtodowithRussian-USrelationsorwith
nationalpolitics.Itisrelated,rather,topersonnelpolicy.

Inmyexperience,Ihaveoftenseenwhathappenswithpeoplebeforetheytakeonacertainjobandafterward.
Often,youcannotrecognisethem,becauseoncetheyreachanewlevelofresponsibilitytheybegintotalk

andthinkdifferently,theyevenlookdifferent.Weactontheassumptionthatthesenseofresponsibility
oftheUSheadofstate,theheadofthecountryonwhichagreatdealintheworlddependstoday,thatthis

senseofresponsibilitywillencouragethenewlyelectedpresidenttocooperatewithRussiaand,Iwouldlike
torepeat,buildamoresecureworld.

FareedZakaria:PresidentPutin,letmefinallyaskyouonequestionaboutnewsreportsaboutRussian
athletes.TherearenowtwomajorinvestigationsthathaveshownthatRussianathleteshaveengaged
indopingonamassivescale,andthattherehasbeenasystematicevasionanddoctoringoftestingandlab
samples.AndIwasjustwonderingwhatyoureactiontothesereportsis.
VladimirPutin:Ididnotunderstandwhatkindofprogrammeitistotamperwiththesamplesthatwere
collectedfortests?Ifsamplesarecollectedtheyareimmediatelytransferredtointernationalorganisations
forstorageandwehavenothingtodowiththem.Samplesarecollectedandtakensomewhere,
toLausanneorwherever,Idonotknowwhere,buttheyarenotonRussianterritory.Theycanbe
opened,re-checked,andthisiswhatspecialistsaredoingnow.
DopingisnotonlyaRussianproblem.Itisaproblemoftheentiresportsworld.Ifsomebodytriestopoliticise

somethinginthissphere,Ithinkthisisabigmistake,becausejustlikeculture,forexample,sportcannotbe

politicised.Thesearethebridgesthatbringpeople,nationsandstatesclosertogether.Thisistheway

toapproachit,nottrytoforgesomeanti-Russianoranti-whateverpolicyonthisbasis.

AsfortheRussianauthorities,Icanassureyou,wearecategoricallyagainstalldopingforseveralreasons.

First,asaformeramateurathlete,Icantellyou,andIthinkthattheoverwhelmingmajorityofpeoplewillagree

withthis:ifweknowthereisdoping,itsnotinterestingtowatchtheeventmillionsoffansloseinterest

inthesport.
Second,nolessimportant,andmaybeevenmostimportant,thereisthehealthoftheathletesthemselves.

Youcantjustifyanythingthatdamageshealth.Thisiswhywehavecombatedandwillcontinuetocombat

dopinginsportonthenationallevel.

Furthermore,asfarasIknow,theProsecutorGeneralsOfficeandtheInvestigativeCommitteehavebeen

closelylookingintoallfactsreportedinthemedia,amongothers.Simply,thismustnotbeturnedinto

acampaign,especiallyacampaigndisparagingsport,includingRussiansport.

Next,thethirdpointIwouldliketomake.Thereisalegalconceptthatsaysresponsibilitycanonlybe

individual.Collectiveresponsibilitycannotbeimposedonallathletesorathletesofacertainsportsfederationif

certainindividualshavebeencaughtdoping.Anentireteamcannotbeheldresponsibleforthosewhohave
committedthisviolation.Ibelievethatthisisanabsolutelynatural,correctapproach.

However,dopingisnottheonlyproblemtoday.Thereareplentyofproblemsinsport.Euro2016isunderway.

Ibelievethatlessattentionisbeingpaidtofootballthantobrawlingbetweenfans.ThisisverysadandIregret

this,butheretooweshouldalwaysproceedfromsomegeneralcriteria.Toreiterate,responsibility

formisconductshouldbeindividualisedasmuchaspossibleandtheapproachtowardperpetratorsshouldbe

thesame.

Euro2016beganwithahigh-profilecase:afightbetweenRussianandBritishfans.Thisisabsolutely

outrageous.Granted,Idonotknowhow200RussianfanswereabletopummelseveralthousandBritons.Ido

notunderstand.Butinanycase,lawenforcementagenciesshouldtakethesameapproachtowardall

perpetrators.

Thisisthewaywehaveorganisedthisworkandwillcontinuetocombatdopingandenforcedisciplineamong

fans.Wewillworkwiththesefanassociations.Iverymuchhopethatthereareplentyofintelligent,sensible

peopleamongthefans,whoreallylovesportandwhounderstandthatviolationsdonothingtosupporttheir

teambut,onthecontrary,causedamagetotheteamandtosport.However,agreatdealhasyettobedone

here,includinginconjunctionwithour[foreign]colleagues.

Iwouldliketostressthattherehasbeenabsolutelynosupportandcanbeabsolutelynosupportforviolations

insport,letalonedopingviolations,atthestatelevel.Wehaveworkedandwillcontinuetoworkwithall

internationalorganisationsinthissphere.

<>

StanovayaontheEconomicForumandforeignbusiness

http://slon.ru/posts/69481

ThisisthefirstSt.PetersburgforumnotshunnedbyWesternpoliticalelitesinacoupleofyearsRussiawantstoshowWestern
businessthattherearepossibilitiesforreformThesanctionshavenotbeenremoved,theMinskagreementsnotfulfilled,butthere
hasbeenacertainloweringoftensionsTheKremliniscautiouslyrehabilitatingthesystemicliberalsKudrinhasinformalstatus
asthemainreformer,withassistancefromGrefVlast,notveryconvincingly,ismakingnoisesaboutimprovingconditionsfor
privatebusinessGestureshavebeenmadetoeasetensionswiththeWestSavchenko,forexample,wasreleasedtheresa
certainwearinesswithconfrontationTherehasbeensomemovementawayfromtheconservativetrenddomestically
Pavlenskiyhasbeenreleased(http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-pavlensky-artist-fined-cultural-site-fsb/27786266.html)...The
messagetoWesterninvestorsisclearRussiadoesnotwanttobeNorthKoreaorevenBelarusRussianeedsdirectinvestment
andbudgetproblemsarepushingvlasttowardmakingapoliticaldecisiononstructuralreforms
ThewearinessofbothRussiaandtheWestwithsanctionsinthemid-termcouldatleastleadtotheirweakening.Thedeclineofthe
economyhassloweddownandsomeoptimistsexpectgrowthbytheendoftheyearTheUkrainecrisiscouldberoutinized,
pushedtothebackburnerinfavorofcooperatingoncombattingterrorismPutinwantstolowertensionswiththeAmericans

Yetthearbitrarybehaviorofcourts,taxterrorism,corruption,andnightmaringbusinesseshaveonlybecomeworseAverage
investorswithoutspecialconnectionsarewaitingforasignofvlastsintensionsandofamoretransparenteconomicpolicyIts
doubtfulthatwillhappenandforeignbusinesssurelyunderstandsthatForeigninvestorswanttoknowaboutconcrete
economicdevelopmentplans,taxpolicy,aboutwhetherGlazyevistakenseriouslyandwhetherKudrinisaroundjustforwindow
dressing.Arethesilovikytakingpartindiscussionsoneconomicpolicytemporarilyoristheyheretostay?

Putinwantstheeconomytoimprove,butwithoutchanginganythinginstitutionallyThewaytohaveinfluenceinRussiais
througharelationshipwithoneofPutinsfriends,whooftenhavemoreinfluencethanministers.Soinvestorswanttoknowwhata
particularpersonsaccesstoPutinreallyis,whatkindofinfluenceapersonmighthaveonaministerAndinvestorsseeasociety
thatisdistrustful,evenhatefultowardtheWest,onewhereoppositionpoliticalfiguresareindanger,whereonehastobewaryof
provocationsbycompetitorsAndtheYukoscase,theMagnitskiyaffair,andthecaseagainsttheownersandmanagersof
Domodedovoairportarestillverymuchonthemindsofforeigninvestors

InRussia,ifyoumoveoneway,youloseyourbusiness,anotherandyouloseyourlife.Ifyoumovejustright,youcanbecomea
billionaire

SoloveyongesturestoAmerica

http://vk.com/id244477574?w=wall244477574_18809/all

RussiasconciliatorygesturestoAmericaarebeingmadefortworeasons:One,becauseitistheAmericansblockingEuropean
revisionismregardingRussiaandtwo,becauseMoscowisworriedaboutreputationalscandalstheremaybemoretocome,
provokingaspiltintheRussianelite

GermanforeignministeronNATOwarmongering

HTTP://WWW.YAHOO.COM/NEWS/GERMANY-SLAMS-NATO-WARMONGERING-RUSSIA-115515814.HTML?REF=GS

GermanForeignMinisterFrank-WalterSteinmeierhascriticisedNATOforhavingabellicosepolicytowardsRussia,describingitas
"warmongering",theGermandailyBildreported.

SteinmeierpointedtothedeploymentofNATOtroopsnearborderswithRussiainthemilitaryalliance'sBalticandeastEuropean
memberstates.

"Whatweshouldavoidtodayisinflamingthesituationbywarmongeringandstompingboots,"SteinmeiertoldBildinaninterviewto
bepublishedSunday.

"Anyonewhothinksyoucanincreasesecurityinthealliancewithsymbolicparadesoftanksneartheeasternborders,ismistaken,"
Germany'stopdiplomatadded.
NATOhadannouncedonMondaythatitwoulddeployfourbattalionstoEstonia,Latvia,LithuaniaandPolandtocounteramore
assertiveRussia,aheadofalandmarksummitinWarsawnextmonth.

AllfourcountrieswereonceruledfromMoscowandremaindeeplysuspiciousofRussianintentions,especiallyafterRussia's
annexationofCrimeafromUkrainein2014.

InaninterviewwithBildonThursday,NATOchiefJensStoltenbergsaidRussiaisseekingtocreate"azoneofinfluencethrough
militarymeans".

"WeareobservingmassivemilitarisationatNATOborders--intheArctic,intheBaltic,fromtheBlackSeatotheMediterranean
Sea,"hetoldthenewspaper.

StoltenberghasstressedthatNATOdoesnotseekconfrontationwithRussiaandwantsaconstructivedialoguebutthatitwould
defendthe28alliesagainstanythreat

RussiabitterlyopposesNATO'sexpansionintoitsSoviet-erasatellitesandlastmonthsaiditwouldcreatethreenewdivisionsinits
southwestregiontomeetwhatitdescribedasadangerousmilitarybuild-upalongitsborders.

From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 06/18/201610:45:32AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:[ITEMSOFINTEREST/FRIAFTERNOON/EST][ODDD]Fwd:UkraineWP,WH,NYT,(2),USOSCE,ODremarks[atUA'ReportCard'
Subject: Conference],WoE.COMPARE&CONTRAST:Vlad'sFavFilmmakerOlieStonevs.3timeOscarwinnerMarkHarrison'UkraineRevof
Dign...

From:wolodymyrzarycky[mailto:wzarcusur@gmail.com]
Sent:Friday,June17,20161:46PM
Subject:Fwd:[ITEMSOFINTEREST/FRIAFTERNOON/EST][ODDD]Fwd:UkraineWP,WH,NYT,(2),USOSCE,ODremarks[atUA
'ReportCard'Conference],WoE.COMPARE&CONTRAST:Vlad'sFavFilmmakerOlieStonevs.3timeOscarwinnerMarkHarrison
'UkraineRevofDign...

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:wolodymyrzarycky<wzarcusur@gmail.com>
Date:Fri,Jun17,2016at4:44PM
Subject:[ITEMSOFINTEREST/FRIAFTERNOON/EST]Fwd:UkraineWP,WH,NYT,(2),USOSCE,ODremarks[atUA
'ReportCard'Conference],WoE.COMPARE&CONTRAST:Vlad'sFavFilmmakerOlieStonevs.3timeOscarwinner
MarkHarrison'UkraineRevofDignity'[MB]BreakingNews:Russianathletestoremainbannedfrominternational
competition
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:Deychak,Orest<Orest.Deychak@mail.house.gov>
Date:Fri,Jun17,2016at3:37PM
Subject:UkraineWP,WH,NYT,(2),USOSCE,ODremarks,WoE
To:"Deychak,Orest"<Orest.Deychak@mail.house.gov>

TheWashingtonPost
APInterview:NewUkrainePMvowsreform,blamesRussia

http://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/ap-interview-new-ukraine-pm-vows-reform-blames-russia/2016/06/16/ee95a4b4-33f7-
11e6-ab9d-1da2b0f24f93_story.html

June16at4:14PM

WASHINGTONUkrainesnewprimeministervowedThursdaytorootoutcorruptionandurgedRussiatoabidebyapeace
agreementmeanttoendatwo-yearconflictbetweenMoscow-backedseparatistsandUkrainianforces.

VolodymyrGroysmanspoketoTheAssociatedPressinaninterviewonedayaftermeetingwithVicePresidentJoeBidenand
otherU.S.officials.BidenannouncedthattheObamaadministration,astaunchsupporterofUkraine,waspledging$220millionin
assistancethisyeartohelptheformerSovietnationimplementreforms.

ChangehasbeenslowinthetwoyearssincethepreviousUkrainiangovernmentfellamidpro-Westernprotests.Ukrainehasbeen
shakenbyRussiasannexationofCrimeaandlostmorethan9,300peopleinfightingwiththeseparatistsintheeasternpartofthe
country.Butcriticssaydomesticchangesalsohavestalledamidpoliticalinfightingandsaycorruptionremainsamajorproblem.

Intheinterview,GroysmandismissedthecriticismandblamedRussiaformostofUkrainesills.

UkraineisavictimofaggressionfromtheRussianFederation,saidthe38-year-oldGroysman,whosepastexperienceincludes
servingasmayorofaprovincialcityandbeingparliamentspeaker.

Groysmansaidhewasworkingtoderegulatetheeconomy,makethejudicialbranchmoreindependent,increasegoodgovernance
andtransparency,andprivatizestateenterprises.Wemusttargetnotonlythosewhoarecorrupt,butalsothesystemsothatnew
corruptiondoesnotreplaceoldcorruption,hesaid.

Groysmansaidhewashopefulthatinthenearterm,Ukrainewouldreceivethenext$1.7billionloaninstallmentfromthe
InternationalMonetaryFundaspartofa$17billionbailoutpackage.

GroysmanaccusedRussiaofviolatingashakycease-fireunderapeaceaccordnegotiatedin2015byRussia,Ukraine,France
andGermany.GroysmansaidRussiamustensurethatalltheweaponsineasternUkrainearepulledbackandthatfightingstops
completelybeforeUkrainepassesthenecessarylegislationtoholdanelectionintheseparatist-heldareas,asstipulatedbythe
accord.

NormalizationoftheDonbassnowfullydependsondecisionsmadebytheRussianFederation,Groysmansaid,referringtothe
DonetskregionineasternUkraine.

MoscowdeniesitisbackingtherebelsinUkraineandsaysKievmustfirstholdthevoteinordertoadvancethepeaceprocess.

TheWhiteHouse

OfficeofthePressSecretary

ForImmediateRelease

June15,2016

FACTSHEET:U.S.AssistancetoUkrainesinceFebruary2014

http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2016/06/15/fact-sheet-us-assistance-ukraine-february-2014

DuringhismeetingwithUkrainianPrimeMinisterVolodymyrGroysman,VicePresidentJoeBidenannouncedtodayin
Washingtonthat,pendingCongressionalnotification,theWhiteHouseplanstocommit$220millioninnewassistanceto
Ukrainethisyearinsupportofeconomic,political,andenergyreforms.Thisassistancepackagewillcontinueoursupportfor
Ukraineseffortstostrengthendemocraticinstitutionsandtheruleoflaw,reinforcethefoundationsforsustainableeconomic
growth,andrespondtohumanitarianneeds.ThenewassistancewillalsosupportotherkeyareasofPrimeMinisterGroysmans
ambitiousreformagenda,including:

Acceleratingcustomsreform,includingbyprovidinglegal,regulatory,infrastructure,ande-customssupportcreatinganew
customsmonitoringcenterandassistinginimplementingreformsoftherecruitment,selection,vetting,training,andequippingof
newcustomsofficers,basedonthesuccessfulpatrolpolicemodel.
Fightingcorruptionthroughsupportforkeyjusticesectorreforms,includingimplementationoftheconstitutionalamendments
adoptedbytheRadaonJune2andProsecutorGeneralYuriyLutsenkosreformagenda,andbyexpandingourpartnershipswith
theNationalAnti-CorruptionBureau,SpecializedAnti-CorruptionProsecutorsOffice,andNationalPolice,aswellassupportfor
independentmediaandcivilsociety.

ExtendingdecentralizationacrossUkraine,helpingtoimproveservicedelivery,increasecitizenengagementandoversight,
andraisepublicawarenessofthebenefitsofreforms.

Expandingsupportforenergysecuritythroughprogramsthatestablishcompetitiveandtransparentgasandelectricity
marketsinlinewithEUstandards,diversifysourcesofenergy,improveenergyefficiency,supportprivatization,andenhance
cybersecurity.

Inaddition,onJune9,theOverseasPrivateInvestmentCorporation(OPIC)approvedupto$62.5millioninfinancialsupport
totwoprivateequityfundsthatwillinvestinUkraineacrossanumberofsectorsincludingagribusiness,healthcare,
infrastructure,retail,consumergoods,andrealestate.ThesetwoinvestmentsareinadditiontoOPICstotalexposureto
Ukraineof$185million,including$73millionininsurancecoverage,$97millioninfinanceexposure,andanestimated$15
millioninindirectexposuretoUkrainethroughothermulticountryinvestmentfunds.

TheUnitedStatesisalsohelpingUkraineimproveitsbusinessenvironmenttoattractmoreforeigninvestmentthrough
implementationofbankingreforms,simplifiedregulations,enhancedinvestorrights,andgreatertransparency.TheUnitedStates
willcontinuetoworkcloselywiththeUkrainianGovernmenttohelpensurethatthepracticalexperienceofU.S.industryis
takenintoaccountinUkrainesongoingeffortstoprioritizeandimplementreformsthatwillimprovethebusinessclimateand
attractprivatecapital.

Theseinitiativesandnewcommitmentsarepartofmorethan$1.3billioninforeignassistancetheU.S.governmenthas
committedtoUkrainesince2014toadvancereforms,strengthendemocraticinstitutionsandcivilsociety,stimulateeconomic
growth,strengthenitsdefenses,andhelpUkrainemoresafelymonitorandsecureitsbordersanddefenditsterritorialintegrity.

Thisincludesmorethan$112millioninhumanitarianassistanceprovidedtodatetoconflict-affectedciviliansinUkraine.This
fundinghelpsprovideemergencyshelter,reliefcommodities,protectionactivitiesforchildrenandtheelderly,psychosocial
support,repairtowaterinfrastructure,andsupportforshort-termjobcreationforinternallydisplacedpersons.

TheU.S.governmenthasalsoprovidedUkraine$2billioninloanguarantees,andsignedanagreementonJune3toallowfor
theissuanceofathird,upto$1billionloanguaranteeinthecomingmonths,pendingcompletionofcertainconditionsandthe
Congressionalnotificationprocess.TheseloanguaranteeshelpUkrainestabilizeitseconomyandprotectthemostvulnerable
householdsfromtheimpactofneededeconomicadjustment.

OfficeoftheVicePresident

ForImmediateRelease

June15,2016

http://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/2016/06/15/readout-vice-presidents-meeting-prime-minister-volodymyr-groysman

ReadoutoftheVicePresidentsMeetingwithPrimeMinisterVolodymyrGroysmanofUkraine

VicePresidentBidenmettodayattheWhiteHousewithUkrainianPrimeMinisterVolodymyrGroysmantodiscussUkraine's
reformagendaandtheimplementationoftheMinskagreements.TheVicePresidentexpressedstrongsupportforthePrime
Minister'sambitiousreformeffortsandcommendedhimfortheboldreformstepshisCabinethasalreadytakeninitsinitialtwo
monthsinoffice.InsupportofUkraine'seffortstopursueadditionaleconomic,political,andenergyreforms,theVicePresident
announcedthat,pendingcompletionofCongressionalnotificationprocedures,theWhiteHouseplanstocommit$220millionin
newassistancetoUkrainethisyear.TheVicePresidentalsoexpresseddeepconcernaboutthedeterioratingsecuritysituationin
easternUkraineandhighlightedtheimportanceofacceleratingimplementationoftheMinskagreements.TheVicePresident
reiteratedthatsanctionsagainstRussiawillremaininplaceuntilRussiafullyimplementsitsMinskcommitments.

ODRemarks:

Belowpleasefindmyproximate,unpolishedremarksatyesterdaysUS-UAWorkingGroupYearlySummit
Conference.

Ifyoudonthavethetimeorinclinationtoreaditinitsentirety,pleaseconsideratleastlookingatthelastsection,as
thisisoneoftheissuesthathasbeenonmymindalotlately.Thereweretrulymanysubstantive,interestingremarks
onavarietyofsubjectsattheconference,includingUkrainianPrimeMinisterHroysmans,whoopenedupthe
conference.

IbelievethetranscriptwillbeupatsomepointontheCenterforUS-UkrainianRelationswebsite.Butyoullhaveto
dowithjustminefornowastheyretheonlyoneIhaveavailable.

UkraineReportCardConferenceJune16,2016Remarks

OrestDeychakiwsky

USHelsinkiCommission

LetmeofferaverybroadbrushoverviewjusttogiveyouasenseofthehumanrightssituationinUkraine,asonecouldspend
hoursonthistopic.Illbreakitinto3partsCrimeatheoccupiedterritoriesofDonbasandfinally,Kyiv-controlledUkraine.

Crimea:RussiasoccupationofCrimeahasresultedinadeplorablehumanrightssituationaswellasotherseriousconsequences
thatcontinuetothisday.Latest,June3UNHumanRightsReportonUkrainecharacterizesitashavingsharplydeterioratedin
lasttwoyears.

Humanrightsandfundamentalfreedomsremainseverelycurtailed.Latestreportsestimatethatupto100,000Crimeanshaveleft
thepeninsula.Weveseenanextensivecampaignofintimidationtosuppressdissentandoppositiontotheoccupation,including
kidnappings,disappearances,physicalabuse,anddeportations,detentions,intimidation.Violationsofcivil,political,social,
economic,religiousandculturalrightsarewidespread.ThemajorityofvictimshavebeenCrimeanTatarsaswellasethnic
UkrainiansandotherswhoopposeRussianoccupation.EGExpressionsofUkrainianidentityandtheuseoflanguageare
discouragedandbanned,includingtheclosingofUkrainianschools,bookburningsorbookdestructionashappenedatthe
UkrainianNGOProsvitainSevastopolafewmonthsago.YoualsohadarecentbanonpublicgatheringsinSimferopol.

Russiananti-extremismandanti-terrorismlawshavebeenusedtocriminalizenon-violentbehaviorandstiflefreespeech.These
lawsprovideforimprisonmentforjournalistsandordinarycitizensfordisagreeingwiththefactthatCrimeabelongstoRussiaorfor
callsforitsreturntoUkraine.Justafewweeksago,aprominentTatarjournalistwaswarnedbyCrimeanprosecutorsover
extremistviewsforwritingabouttheplightofTatarchildrenwhoseparentswerearrested.

Morebroadly,thosewhorefusetoacceptcompulsoryRussiancitizenshiphavebeenharassedanddiscriminatedagainst,including
throughthedenialofhealthcareandsocialservices.

Thesituationhasnotimprovedinrecentmonths,especiallywithrespecttotheCrimeanTatarsWeveseenthebanningofthe
Mejlisasanextremistorganization,arrestsoftopCTleaderIlmiUmerovandjustlastweektheextensionofthedetentionof
ErvenIbragimovandothersonfictitiousextremismorterrorismchargesseizures,detentions,harassment,intimidationofdozensof
otherCrimeanTataractivists.Wehaveseenraidsonmosques,schoolsandhomes.Weveseenthesurrealtrialandsentencing
justafewdaysagoto10yearsimprisonmentinCrimeaofMaidanactivistAndriyKolomiyets,aswellastheearlierimprisonments
inRussiaofCrimeansandstiffsentencesonabsurdchargesoffilm-makerOlegSentsov,OleksanderKolchenkoandothers.
Thankfully,oneoftheothers,HennadyAfanasiev,wasreleasedafewdaysagoaspartofaprisonerexchange.

OccupiedTerritoriesoftheDonbas

ThehumanrightssituationhereisevenmoreappallingthaninCrimea.First,10,000deadand20,000wounded.Humanrightsof
thesome3millionpeoplecontinuetobetrampleduponbytheRussianproxyseparatistauthoritiesofthesemi-functional(at
best)so-calledDonetskandLuhanskPeoplesRepublics.AccordingtotheJune3UNHumanRightsReport,theyhave
imposedanarbitrarysystemofrules,establishedanetworkofplacesofdeprivationoflibertywheredetaineesaretorturedand
ill-treated,andcrackeddownondissent.(Forsomerealchillingpersonalaccounts2015SurvivingHellReport)

Andthis,fromtheUNReport,sumsitupverywell:Subjectedtounaccountableruleandexcludedfromthelegalsystem
applyingtotherestofUkraine,thepopulationlivingintheterritoriescontrolledbythearmedgroupshasbeeneffectivelydenied
basicprotectionanddeprivedofbasichumanrightsandfreedoms.Indeed,theprioritiesforthethuggishotamanrulersappearto
besmugglingandsellingoffstateassets.ThatswhyImskepticalastowhetherDonbaselectionscalledforintheMinsk
agreementscantakeplaceanytimesoonunlessthereisaradicalchangeinstatusquo--evenassumingthesecuritysituationwas
tostabilizetoallowforsuchelections--whichinitselfisahugeif.Fordemocraticelections,youneedanenvironmentwhere
thereisalevelplayingfieldforallpartiesandcandidates,andforthatyouneedbasicfreedomsofassociation,assembly,
expression,mediaandsemblanceofruleoflaw.

Russian-separatistforcesviolationsofcease-fireandMinskhashumanitarianimplicationsaswellinshort,theycausealotof
suffering.TheeconomicsituationintheDonbasisdifficultandgettingworse.Timedoesnotpermitdelvingintothehumanitarian
situation,butitisserious.MillionsofUkrainiansareinneedofhumanitarianassistance.Vulnerablegroupsespeciallysuffering
children,elderly,minoritygroups,includingtheRoma.Itsespeciallydifficultincommunitiesalongthelineofcontactonboth
sides.Now,arguably,thedismalhumanrightssituationhasimprovedslightlygiventheoverallreductionofhostilitiessince
September2015andthefactthatmostpro-Ukrainianactivistshaveleft,butIwouldntmaketoomuchofitgiventhearbitrariness
andabsenceofruleoflawandlackofhumanrightsprotectionsfortheresidentsthere.Youneverknowwhenthingscouldget
worseandgetworsequickly,especiallyasviolencepicksupandwehaveseenanuptickinthelastmonth.

Ukraine(Kyivcontrolled):

OverallUkraineiscategorizedaspartlyfreeintheauthoritativeFreedomHouserankings,whichithasbeenthroughoutmost
ofitsindependenceexceptduringtheYuschenkoyearswhenitwasfree.Althoughitsascloseasyoucangettothefree
category.AlthoughcomparingthepartsofUkrainecontrolledbyKyivwiththeRussianandseparatistcontrolledpartsislike
comparingnightandday,mainlandUkraineisnotwithouthumanrightsshortcomings.BetterthanunderYanukovych?Of
course.Clearly,sincetheMaidan,Ukrainianshavegainedgreaterfreedomtoexerciseindividualliberties.

TheJune3UNreportsumsupwhatmaybeUkrainesmostsignificanthumanrightsproblemthus:Individualsdetainedby
Ukrainianauthoritiesinconnectionwiththearmedconflicthavebeentorturedandill-treated,andcontinuetofacesystematic
violationsoftheirdueprocessandfairtrialrights.Thisisnotnearthescaleofthatintheoccupiedterritories.Plusthereare
someeffortstobringperpetratorstojustice,atleastinmilitary.Unfortunately,lastmonth,UNanti-torturemonitorswereforcedto
suspendavisittodetentionfacilitiesinUkraineduetoSBUobstruction,butthankfully,sincethen,aUkraine-UNjointgrouphas
createdtomonitorthesefacilities.Now,itsnosurprisethatwartendstoexacerbatehumanrightsproblems,evenbythevictimsof
aggression.Notwithstanding,ifUkrainesgovernmentistryingtodemonstratethatitcouldbeabastionofEuropeanvalues,it
needstodobetter.

Also,therearesomecriticismsregardingmediafreedoms.WhileimprovedsinceYanukovych,therearestillconstraints,and
Ukrainiangovernmentoftenfailstorespondtoattacksonmediafreedomsandhaspassedsomelawsandbansthatcouldlimit
freedomofinformationsomeofthemclearlylinkedtothewar.Thishastobeseenthecontextofbalancingsecuritywithfree
speechachallengeforanysocietybutbottomlineisthatRussianaggressionshouldnotbeusedtosacrificemediafreedoms.

And,amongotherhumanrightsconcerns,weveseennoprogressinbringingperpetratorsofMaidanshootingstojustice,although
someprogressininvestigations.

HumanRights/DemocracyImplicationsofDonbasfuture:

AswedebatethefuturestatusoftheoccupiedterritorieswithinanyMinskorpost-Minskprocess,letskeepinmindthatwere
alsotalkingaboutthelivesandfuturesofmillionsofUkrainiancitizens.SomeexpertsandUkrainianpoliticiansappeartobegiving
upontheDonbas,eithertemporarilyorforgoodandoften,temporaryhasawayofbecomingforgood.Irecognize
argumentsforthisapproach(forinstance,thetremendouseconomiccostsofre-integrationorthepossiblepoliticalvulnerabilities
toUkraineofre-integration)aswellasargumentsagainst(forexample,givingupontheDonbaswouldweakenUkraines
territorialintegrityandsovereigntyandtheinternationalnormsandprinciplesthatundergirditandcouldhavenegativeimplications
forUkrainesfuture).ButwhatIdonthearaboutsomuchinthediscussionofthisissue--andasthisisafterallapanelonhuman
rightsanddemocracy--iswhathappenstothesome3millionofUkrainiancitizensremaininginoccupiedDonbas?Letsnot
forgetthatiftheyarentre-integrated,theywillcontinuetoliveinmiseryandsuffering.Humanrightswillnotberespected.Ruleof
lawwillnotmagicallyappear.Democracywillnotflourish.WhateverKyivsimperfections,youcanbetrespectforhumanrights
anddemocracywillinvariablybefarsuperiorinUkrainethanundertheruleoftheRussiansandtheirseparatistsatraps.Perhaps
weshouldnotmakehastyassumptions,assomehavedone,thatthesepeople,ifre-integrated,wouldconstituteafifthcolumnand
bedisloyaltoUkraine.Afterall,nationalandpoliticalidentityinUkraineisfluid,asweveseeninthelasttwoyears.Alsoletsnot
forgetthe1.5millionIDPswhomightwishtoreturntotheirhomes.SothefatesofallofthesemillionsofUkrainiancitizensalso
needtobekeptinmindinthelargerdebateaboutMinskandUkrainessovereignfuture.Itwontbeeasy,butletsnotcastthem
asideorgiveupontheDonbasprematurely.

TheNewYorkTimes(2)

PutinLamentsWest'sSupportof'CoupD'etat'inUkraine

ByREUTERSJUNE17,2016,9:33A.M.E.D.T.

Continuereadingthemainstory

STPETERSBURG,RussiaPresidentVladimirPutincomplainedonFridayaboutwhathecalledtheWest'ssupportfor'acoup
d'etat'inUkrainein2014duringwhichthecountry'spro-Moscowpresidentfled.

"Whysupportacoupd'etatinUkraine?...Itislikelythattheopposition,whichiscurrentlyinpower,wouldhavecometopower
bydemocraticmeans,"PutinsaidataquestionandanswersessionduringtheStPetersburgInternationalEconomicForum.
HesaidthewaypowerhadchangedhandshadledtobloodshedandhadfrightenedtheRussian-speakingpopulationinCrimea
andsouth-easternUkraine.

(ReportingbyAlexanderWinning,EkaterinaGolubkovaandChristianLoweWritingbyVladimirSoldatkinEditingbyAndrew
Osborn)

[ED:SEEOLIVERSTONE'SNEWDOCONTHEISSUE.ANT/FMEMO]

EUExtendsRussiaSanctionsOverCrimeafor1Year

ByTHEASSOCIATEDPRESSJUNE17,2016,8:03A.M.E.D.T.

Continuereadingthemainstory

BRUSSELSTheEuropeanUnionhasextendedforanotheryearsomeofitssanctionstargetingRussiaoveritsannexationof
theCrimeanpeninsula.

Fortwoyears,the28-nationEUhasimposedevermorepunitivemeasuresonRussiatoprotestwhatitcalls"theillegalannexation
ofCrimeaanddeliberatedestabilizationofUkraine."

Thesanctionstargetimportsfromthepeninsulaandinvestmentthere,amongothermeasures.

TheannouncementcameonedayafterEUCommissionPresidentJean-ClaudeJunckermetwithRussianPresidentVladimirPutin
inSt.Petersburg.

AftertheEUfirstimposedsanctionstwoyearsago,Moscowretaliatedbybanningimportsofmeat,vegetableanddairyproducts
fromtheEU,ablowtomanyofthebloc'smembers.

USMissiontotheOSCE(3statements)
OnRussiasOngoingViolationsinUkraine:StatementtothePC

http://osce.usmission.gov/russias-ongoing-violations-ukraine-statement-pc-4-4/

Beforebeginning,Mr.Chair,letmejoinyouinwelcomingthenewsoftheexchangethatledtothereleaseofYuriSoloshenkoand
GennadiyAfanasyev.LikemanyothersstillinRussiancustody,thesetwoindividualswereconvictedontrumpedup,politically-
motivatedcharges,andtheirreleaseisastepinfulfillingRussiascommitmentsundertheMinskagreements,andshouldnow
provideimpetusforthecompleteimplementationofthoseagreements,includingreleasingallotherhostagesandunlawfullydetained
persons.

TheUnitedStatesremainsdeeplyconcernedbythesurgeinviolenceineasternUkraineandeffortsbycombinedRussian-
separatistforcestomasktheirincreasingaggressionandtheweaponrythatfacilitatestheirattacks.Overthelastseveraldays,the
SpecialMonitoringMission(SMM)hasfoundfoursurface-to-airmissilesystemsinRussian-separatistcontrolledDonetskcity,in
clearviolationofthewithdrawallines.Whilefollowinguponreportsofshellinginseparatist-heldHorlivka,theSMMsawfresh
tracesofatrackedvehicle,andaresidentsaidhehadseenamilitary-typevehiclewithabarrelpointingupduringtheJune10
shelling.Thepresenceanduseofsuchweaponsraisestheriskofafurtherescalationinthefighting,aswehaveseenseveraltimes
overthecourseofthepastweek.OnJune12alone,combinedRussian-separatistforcesshelledUkrainianforcesover348times,
claimingthelivesoffoursoldiersandwoundingeightmore.

EvenmoretroublingisgrowingevidenceofcombinedRussian-separatistsapparentlyattemptingtouseciviliansashumanshields.
TheSMMreportsincludingitsfirsthandaccountsfromresidentsevidencethatcombinedRussian-separatistforceshave
stationedandfiredprohibitedheavyweaponsfromcivilianareas,includinga152mmself-propelledhowitzer.TheSMMhaseven
reportedevidencethattheseparatistswerefiringmortarsandsniperriflesfromtheroofsofapartmentbuildings.TheUnitedStates
underscorestheimportanceofupholdinginternationalhumanitarianlawintheconflictandemphasizesthatthesidesshouldprotect
thelocalpopulationfromharmtothefullestextentpossible.Allforcesmuststrictlyavoidpositioningheavyweaponsnearcivilian
locations,particularlyiftheyareprohibitedbyagreement,andupholdtheceasefirebyonlyfiringdefensively.

UkrainiansintheconflictzonepaythehighestpriceforRussiasongoingaggression.Checkpointsremainsubjecttoclosureasa
resultoftheviolence,andnewcrossingpointsremainblocked,likeZolote,whichtheseparatistspledgedtoopenmonthsagoin
theHumanitarianWorkingGroup.Fightinghasclaimedover21,000civiliandeathsandinjuriessincetheconflictbeganovertwo
yearsago,andtraumaiswidespreadamongchildrenintheconflictzone.Lastweek,theSMMdocumentedthestoryofafour-
yearoldboywhostoppedspeakingafterfightingbrokeoutinhisvillageinseparatist-heldDonetskoverayearago.Eventhough
childrenlikehimdonothaveaccesstopsychologicalsupportinseparatist-heldareas,Russian-backedseparatistscontinueto
blockaccessforinternationalaidorganizations.Russiapreviouslystatedthathumanitarianorganizationsshouldbegiventhe
opportunitytoworkinDonbas,buttheseparatistsRussiabackscontinuetolimitaccess.Indeed,onApril23theUNsregistration
expiredinareasofLuhanskoblastunderseparatistcontrol,despiterepeatedeffortsbytheUNtomaintainitsstatus.Russiaand
theseparatistsmustend,onceandforall,therestrictionsagainsttheaidorganizationsthathelpsavelivesinthecommunities
bearingthebruntoftheconflict.

WeurgeRussiaandtheseparatiststoimplementtheirMinskcommitments,includinggrantingtheOSCEfullaccess,and
guaranteeingthesafetyofthemonitors.Implementingtheceasefirewillalsorequirenothinglessthanfulltransparencythroughout
theconflictzone,whichmeanscombinedRussian-separatistforcesmustimmediatelyceasetheireffortstoblindtheSMM.All
threatsandattacksagainstSMMmonitorsanditsassetsmustcease.TheSMMmustbegivenunhindered,unrestricted,andsafe
accessthroughouttheentiretyofUkraineandbeallowedtostationmonitors,cameras,andothertechnicalmeansofobservationin
theconflictzonewithoutinterference.

Inadditiontothestepsabove,RussiamustimplementtheotherelementsintheMinskagreements:electionsmustbeheldunder
UkrainianlawthatmeetOSCEstandardsandaremonitoredbytheOSCEOfficeforDemocraticInstitutionsandHumanRights
foreignforcesandequipmentmustbewithdrawnandUkrainiancontroloveritsinternationalbordermustberestored.Sanctions
imposedfortheRussianaggressionineasternUkrainewillremaininplaceuntilRussiafullyimplementsitscommitmentsinthe
Minskagreements.

RussiamustalsostopobstructinginternationalmonitoringofthesituationinCrimeaandensurethatabusesendimmediately.
OccupationauthoritieshaveharassedandintimidatedCrimeanTataractivistsandotherswhoopposetheoccupation,conducted
intrusiveandunwarrantedsearchesatTatarmosques,schools,andhomes,andinitiatedunwarrantedadministrativeandcriminal
proceedingsagainstscoresofCrimeanTatars.WeareconcernedbyreportsthatajudgeinCrimeasentencedEuromaidanactivist
AndreiKolomietsto10yearsinprisononchargesthathumanrightsactivistshavecalledpoliticallymotivated.Thisisunacceptable
andwecallonRussiatostopthesepractices.WeremindtheRussianFederationthatCrimea-relatedsanctionswillcontinueuntilit
endstheoccupationandreturnsthisUkrainianland.

Thankyou,Mr.Chair.

AsdeliveredbyAmbassadorDanielB.BaertothePermanentCouncil,Vienna

http://osce.usmission.gov/observer-mission-russian-checkpoints-gukovo-donetsk-statement-pc/

OntheObserverMissionattheRussianCheckpointsatGukovoandDonetsk:StatementtothePC

TheUnitedStateswarmlywelcomesColonelFlavienSchallertothePermanentCouncil,andthankshimforhisinformativereport
ontheOSCEObserverMissionattheRussianCheckpointsofGukovoandDonetsk.ColonelSchaller,wealsowishtoexpress
ourappreciationforyourownandyourteamsworkindifficultandrestrictiveconditions.

TheUnitedStatesfindsitdeeplyregrettablethattheRussianFederationhasthusfarfailedtorespondmeaningfullytoproposalsto
ensurethepermanentmonitoringoftheUkrainian-RussianborderandverificationbytheOSCEasRussiacommittedtodoin
signingtheSeptember2014MinskProtocol.Morethan30participatingStateshaveregularlycalledtoexpandthegeographic
scopeoftheOSCEObserverMissionbeyondthecurrenttwocheckpointstocovertheentirelengthofthebordernowoutside
thecontroloftheUkrainiangovernment,includingtheothertencrossingpointsandtheareasbetweenthem.CombinedRussian-
separatistforcesalsocontinuetoroutinelyblocktheSpecialMonitoringMission(SMM)fromaccesstoareasneartheborder.
TheSMMhasbeenreadyformonthstoopennewforwardpatrolbasesandpatrolhubsneartheborderthatwouldallowforreal,
meaningfulcoverageoftheborder.YetRussia-backedseparatistshaverefusedtoprovidethesecurityassurancesnecessaryfor
themissiontodoso.

TheRussianFederationhasjustifieditsoppositiontoenhancingOSCEmonitoringoftheborderbyarguingthatitonlyagreedto
allowtheObserverMissiononRussianterritoryasagoodwillgesture.Colleagues,itisnotashowofgoodwilltomethodically
obstructtheOSCEbyblockingexpansionoftheObserverMissionwhileatthesametimeensuringtheSMMisgivenonly
conditional,episodicaccesstotheborderwhenevercombinedRussian-separatistforcesarecertainthereisnothingof
consequencefortheSMMtosee.Russiasobstructionismconfirmsthatitcontinuestofacilitatetheflowofillegalarms,equipment,
funding,andpersonneltotheseparatists.

DespitethestrictlimitsimposedontheObserverMissionsmandateandoperatingprocedures,theMissionhasnevertheless
recordedclearindicationsofRussiasdestabilizinganddestructiveactivityinDonbas,includingreportsofmorethan28,000
crossingsofindividualsinmilitary-styledressatthetwocheckpointssincetheObserverMissionsoperationsbegan.Numerous
individualsevenclarifiedtoOSCEobserversthatwhiletheydonotcrosswithweapons,theyretrieveweaponsinseparatist-held
partsofUkraine.DespiteRussianattemptstoportraythesemenandwomenassimplecivilians,itiscleartoallthattheyare
crossingintoUkrainetofight.TheObserverMissionhasreportedonclearlymarkedmilitaryfuneraryvehiclesreturningtoRussia
on26differentoccasionssincetheinceptionoftheObserverMissionmostrecentlyonApril6.Suchevidenceisfurther
corroboratedbytheSMM,whichonJune10observedtheexhumationofasoldierinaRussianmilitaryuniform,andspokewitha
gunmanwhofreelyadmittedhecamefromtheRussianFederationtofightfortheseparatists.ThousandsofRussianmilitary
personnelormercenarieshavecrossedtheborderatthetwopointswheretheOSCEhasapresence.Untoldthousandsof
additionalpersonnelmayhavecrossedwheretherearenointernationalobservers.

Russiaslackoftransparencyappliestovirtuallyallcross-bordertrafficinseparatist-controlledareas.OnJune10attheborder
crossinginDonetsk,theSMMaskeddriversofaconvoyofcoveredtrucksabouttheircargo,buttheyrefusedtoanswer.Near
theborderinLuhanskonJune8,Russia-backedseparatistsrefusedtoallowSMMmonitorsaccesstoarailhub.Thesearenot
isolatedincidents,butpartofastrategyofdenialanddeceptionbyRussiaandtheseparatiststhatunderminesconfidenceinthe
ceasefireandRussiascommitmenttotheMinskagreementswhichremainstheonlywaytoendRussiasaggressionandresolve
theconflictineasternUkraine.

Finally,Mr.Chair,wejointheEuropeanUnionincondemningRussiascontinuedpracticeofsendingwhitetruckconvoysacross
theborder.Eachtruck,eachconvoyisanotherviolationofUkrainessovereigntyandterritorialintegrity.

ColonelSchaller,letmethankyouforyourleadershipofaMissionthat,inspiteofRussiasrepeatedrefusalstoexpand,isavital
partoftheOSCEsefforttocontributetoalastingpeaceinUkraine.

Thankyou,Mr.Chair.

AsdeliveredbyAmbassadorDanielB.BaertothePermanentCouncil,Vienna

ResponsetoRussiaontheObserverMissionattheRussianCheckpointsatGukovoandDonetsk:Statementtothe
PC

IdliketorespondtosomeofthecommentsmadebyourdistinguishedRussiancolleague.First,therepeatedclaimthat
observationoftheinternationalborderbetweenRussiaandUkraineisonlypossiblebecauseofagoodwillgestureoftheRussian
Federation:ourUkrainiancolleaguehasjustrecalledthesequenceofevents,andthefactthatwhenthefirstinvitationwas

WindowonEurasia
EverFewerRussiansarePayingAttentiontoUkraine,SurveyFindswindowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2016/06/ever-
fewer-russians-are-paying.html

IstheWestForgettingUkraineasPutinWantsandExpects?windowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2016/06/is-west-forgetting-
ukraine-as-putin.html

NoMoscowPoliticianCouldhaveChangedUkrainesEuropeanChoice,RussianNationalist
Sayswindowoneurasia2.blogspot.com/2016/06/no-moscow-politician-could-have-changed.html

COMPARE&CONTRAST:Vlad'sFavFilmmakerOlieStonevs.3timeOscarwinnerMarkHarris
on'UkraineRevofDignity

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:AntonivFamily<antoniv_family@msn.com>
Date:Fri,Jun17,2016at9:58AM
Subject:TrailerforOliverStonefilmaboutMaidan
To:"ap.borisow@comcast.net"<ap.borisow@comcast.net>,WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

ShaunWalker

BananaslookingtrailerforOliverStonefilmaboutMaidanbeingaCIAcouphttp://www.youtube.com/watch?
v=gVdvp188rk4

----------Forwardedmessage----------

From:PeterBorisow<ap.borisow@comcast.net>
Date:Wed,Jun15,2016at12:43PM
Subject:TheBreakingPoint,anewdocumentaryonUkraine
To:PeterBorisow<ap.borisow@comcast.net>

ThoughtyoumightliketoseetheroughcutofthetrailerforthenewdocumentaryonUkrainewejustfinished.

Here'sthelinkandpassword.:

Password:BreakingPOINT

http://vimeo.com/165134314

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:PeterBorisow<ap.borisow@comcast.net>
Date:Wed,Jun15,2016at3:13PM
Subject:Invitation:FilmScreening:"TheBreakingPoint:TheWarforDemocracyinUkraine"[ED:MOREONPB'S
PROJECT]
To:PeterBorisow<ap.borisow@comcast.net>


Toviewthisemailasawebpage,clickhere

FilmScreening:"TheBreakingPoint:
TheWarforDemocracyinUkraine"
Monday,June27,2016
3:30PM-5:30PM
ExclusiveWashington,D.C.SneakPreviewofBreaking
Point,aDocumentarybyThreeTimeAcademyAward 6thFloorAuditorium
WinningDirector,MarkJonathanHarris.
Directions
WithindaysoftheMaidanRevolutionstopplingofPresident
ViktorYanukovych,UkrainewasinvadedbyRussia. WilsonCenter
Ukrainiansofallbackgroundsralliedtothecountrys RonaldReaganBuildingand
InternationalTradeCenter
defense,intheprocesscreatinganewsenseofUkrainian
OneWoodrowWilsonPlaza
nationhoodandnationalidentity.BreakingPointdepicts 1300Pennsylvania,Ave.,NW
theseturbulentevents,attimesheroic,attimestragic, Washington,D.C.20004
throughtheeyesofpeoplewholivedthemadoctor,a
soldier,achildrenstheaterdirector,arabbi,aninvestigative Phone:202.691.4000
reporter.
kennan@wilsoncenter.org
DirectorMarkJonathanHarrisandProducerPeterBorisow
willattendthescreening.TherewillbeaQ&Aafterthe PrivacyPolicy
screening,followedbyareception.

Thissneakpreviewisthefirstandonlyofthefilmin
Washington,D.C.Seatingislimited,sopleaserememberto
RSVP.

Speaker

MarkJonathanHarris,DirectorFilmmaker3-time
AcademyAwardWinner

RSVPNOW ForwardtoaFriend

Copyright2016,TheWoodrowWilsonInternationalCenterforScholars,AllRightsReserved.

Subscriber:Emma.Dorst@wilsoncenter.org|ManageyourSubscriptions|UnsubscribefromAll
----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:MartaBurachok<marta.burachok@gmail.com>
Date:Fri,Jun17,2016at10:39AM
Subject:Russianathletestoremainbannedfrominternationalcompetition-BBCSport
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

http://www.bbc.com/sport/athletics/36562570

Russianathletestoremainbannedfrom
internationalcompetition

Russianathleteswillremainbannedfrominternationalcompetition,BBCSportunderstands.

Athleticschiefshavedecidednottoliftthesuspension,whichwasimposedinNovemberfollowingaccusationsof
state-sponsoreddoping.

TheWorldAnti-DopingAgency(Wada)thisweeksaidofficialsinRussiawerebeingstoppedfromtestingathletes
andthreatenedbysecurityservices.

RussiasaidinNovemberitwas"fullycommitted"toreforms.

ThecountrywassuspendedbytheInternationalAssociationofAthleticsFederations(IAAF)afteranindependent
Wadareportdepictedacultureofwidespreaddoping,witheventhesecretservicesinvolved.

RussiansportsministerVitalyMutkohassincesaidheis"verysorry"cheatingathleteswerenotcaughtbythe
country'santi-dopingsystems,butstoppedshortofadmittingthescandalhadbeenstate-sponsored.

AtaskforcehasbeenstudyingtheRussianreforms,butafreshWadareport,issuedonWednesday,mademore
damagingclaims.

InternationalOlympicCommittee(IOC)vice-presidentJohnCoatessaidRussia'sathletesshouldremainbannedand
notbeallowedtotakepartintheRioGaamesthissummer.

HealsosaidRussia'santi-dopingagencyandathleticsbodywere"rottentothecore".

However,theIOCcouldstillallowRussianathletestocompeteattheOlympics,whichbeginon5August.

IOCofficialsgatherinLausanneonTuesdaytodiscussthematter,withsomeconcernedasuspensionwillpunish
innocentathletes.
WhatreformshasRussiaimplemented?

AccordingtoMutko,Russiahasbeenreformingitsanti-dopingprogrammesinceitwasbannedinNovember.

Hesaysithas:

Introducedindependenttesting

Introducedadditionaltesting

OverhauledtheRussianAnti-DopingAgency

OverhauledtheRussianAthleticsFederation

Introducedstricterrulesfordoping

Introducedlessonsonanti-dopinginschools

MutkoinsistsRussia"hasdoneeverythingthatIAAF"hasaskedittodoinordertobe"reinstatedtoathletic
competition"andhashintedhiscountrycouldtakelegalactionifitsathleticsfederationisnotreinstated.

Russiasaysitisbeingunfairlyvictimised,claimingothercountrieshavefallenfouloftheWadacode,suchasKenya
andEthiopia,butarefreetocompete.

From: JohnBDunlop<jbdunlop@stanford.edu>
Senttime: 06/18/201610:49:48AM
To: martin.dewhirst@gmail.com
Cc: robertotto25@gmail.com
FW:[WEEKENDVLAD-O-RAMA:COMMENTARY&THESPORTSSECTION][COMMENTARY][MK]Fwd:'DontAppeasePutin'byGuy
Subject: Verhofstadt-ProjectSyndicate[SPORTSSECTION][MB/3X]IAAFVERSIONOFROPE-A-RUDOPING+OHWHATLOVELYFANS(IN"SHWIN-
WEAR"NOLESS)[...

From:WalterZaryckyj[mailto:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu]
Sent:Saturday,June18,20167:47AM
Subject:Fwd:[WEEKENDVLAD-O-RAMA:COMMENTARY&THESPORTSSECTION][COMMENTARY][MK]Fwd:'DontAppeasePutin'byGuy
Verhofstadt-ProjectSyndicate[SPORTSSECTION][MB/3X]IAAFVERSIONOFROPE-A-RUDOPING+OHWHATLOVELYFANS(IN"SHWIN-
WEAR"NOLESS)[...

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>
Date:Sat,Jun18,2016at10:45AM
Subject:[WEEKENDVLAD-O-RAMA:COMMENTARY&THESPORTSSECTION][COMMENTARY][MK]Fwd:'Dont
AppeasePutin'byGuyVerhofstadt-ProjectSyndicate[SPORTSSECTION][MB/3X]IAAFVERSIONOFROPE-A-RU
DOPING+OHWHATLOVELYFANS(IN"SHWIN-WEAR"NOLESS)[NOTE:Putin'sUSShillMikeyAverko"CriesFoul"]
To:RomaHadzewycz<staff@ukrweekly.com>,rl<romashka1@aol.com>

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:MiraKyzyk<mirakyzyk@gmail.com>
Date:Fri,Jun17,2016at11:25PM
Subject:DontAppeasePutinbyGuyVerhofstadt-ProjectSyndicate
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/tighten-eu-sanctions-on-russia-by-guy-verhofstadt-2016-06

GUYVERHOFSTADT
GuyVerhofstadt,aformerBelgianprimeminister,isPresidentoftheAllianceofLiberalsandDemocratsforEuropeGroup(ALDE)intheEuropean
Parliament.

June15,2016

DontAppeasePutin

inShare16

BRUSSELSBothUSPresidentBarackObamaandDonaldTrump,theRepublicanpartysputative
nomineetosucceedhim,havecriticizedEuropeanmembersofNATOinrecentmonthsforfailingtofulfill
theirdefense-spendingcommitments.Theyhaveapoint.

Europehasindeedfailedtoupholditssideofthecollectivedefensebargain.AlmostallofAmericas
Europeanallieshaveallowedtheiraveragedefensespendingtofallbelowthepromisedlevelof2%ofGDP,
withsomespendingfarlessthanthat.Moreimportant,theyhavefailedtobuildupagenuineEuropean
defensecommunity.Unlesstheystepup,theyrisklendingcredencetoTrumpsrecklessclaimsthatthe
Europeansaremerelyfreeriders,exploitinganoutdatedallianceattheexpenseofAmericantaxpayers.

OneareawhereEuropecandemonstrateitsstrategicvaluetotheUSisVladimirPutinsRussia.Some
alreadyarguethattheEuropeanUnionhasfailedtoexercisethesoft-poweroptionsavailabletoittodeal
withanoverlyassertiveKremlin.But,whileabroaderEUstrategytowardRussiaiscertainlylacking,there
isstilltimetodowhatisneededtocurbtheKremlinsprovocativebehavior.

FollowingRussiasinvasionofUkraineandannexationofCrimea,EUcountriesimplementedeconomic
sanctions,includingrestrictionsoncredittoRussianbanksandenergyfirms.Thesanctionswerelinkedto
theimplementationofthe2014MinskProtocol,whichbroughtabouttodayspatchyceasefirewith
Russian-backedinsurgentsineasternUkrainesDonbasregion,andaresupposedtoexpireattheendof
nextmonth.

ButUkrainestilllacksfullcontrolofitsbordersandareliabletruceinDonbas.SoG7leadersrecently
pledgedtoprolongthesanctionsuntilboththe2014and2015Minskagreementsarefullyrespected.Inthe
EU,however,thesanctionscontinuetobehotlydebated,withdiplomatsfromHungary,Cyprus,Italy,and
otherssofteningtheirstancetowardRussia.TheKremlinslobbyingeffortsseemtobehavinganimpact.

Anditisnotonlyfar-rightextremists,suchassupportersofFrancesNationalFront,whoaresusceptibleto
Putinsblandishments.MainstreampoliticiansinFranceandelsewherehavealsostartedtoquestionthe
currentsanctionsregime.GermanForeignMinisterFrank-WalterSteinmeier,forexample,has
recommendedeasingthesanctions,providedthatRussiafulfillscertainconditions.

Beyondadvocatingforalooseningofsanctions,someEuropeanleadersareevencozyinguptotheKremlin.
ItalianPrimeMinisterMatteoRenzi,widelyregardedasasanctionsskeptic,willbeaguestofhonorat
PutinsSt.PetersburgInternationalEconomicForumthisweek.EuropeanCommissionPresidentJean-
ClaudeJunckerwillalsobeinattendance.

ThisisnotimeforEuropetogosoftonRussia.RatherthanattendingaPutin-ledconferenceand
providingtheKremlinwithapropagandacoupaheadofparliamentaryelectionsJunckershouldplace
EUprioritiesattheforefront.ThoseprioritiesincludethepreservationofEuropespost-ColdWarpolitical
andsecurityarchitecture,theprotectionoftheterritorialintegrityofEuropeancountries,andrespectfor
thesharednormsembodiedbyinstitutionsliketheOrganizationforSecurityandCooperationinEurope
andtheCouncilofEurope.OncePutinhasagreedtosupportthesepriorities,discussionsonRussia-EU
economiccooperationcanbegin.

AweakeningofsanctionsonRussiamightpleaseEuropeanbusinessleaders,butitwouldcomeatasteep
long-termcost.Evenwithsanctionsinplace,thefrozenconflictinUkrainelooksincreasinglypermanent.
Easingsanctionsnow,withsolittleprogresshavingbeenmadeunderthelatestMinskagreement,would
amounttoacatastrophiccollapseinEuropesimpactandcredibilityandamajorlossforUkraine.

EUleadersmustremainfirmandunitedinensuringthatexistingeconomicsanctionsareliftedonlyifthe
Minskagreementisimplementedfully.ThisincludesthefullwithdrawalofRussianforcesandmilitary
equipmentfromUkrainianterritory,andrestorationtoUkrainesgovernmentofcompletecontroloverits
borderwithRussia.

InsistenceonRussiancomplianceinUkraineisallthemoreimportant,giventhattheKremlinsactions
therearejustoneexampleoftheincreasinglyroguebehaviorthattheEUmustseektocurb.Giventhis,
ratherthanweakeningsanctions,theEUshouldworktodevelopstrongermeasuresaimedatPutinandhis
cronies,inspiredbyAmericasMagnitskyAct,whichtargetsRussianofficialsresponsibleforgrosshuman-
rightsviolations.

SuchanapproachwouldensurethatthosewhobenefitfromPutinscronycapitalismcouldnotlaunder
theirmoneyandsheltertheirfamiliesintheWest.Infact,suchselectivesanctionscouldbemoreeffective
ininfluencingRussianpolicythanthemoregeneralizedeconomicrestrictions,astheyprovideanexplicit
andtangiblewarningtoRussianelitesthattheirimpunityendsatthecountrysborders.

Beyondsanctions,theEUandtheUnitedStatesmustbecomemuchmoreproactiveandefficientin
combatingthemassivedisinformationcampaignthathasbecomeapotentweaponintheKremlinshybrid
waragainstRussiasneighborsandtheWest.Likewise,theEUshoulddevisewaystosupportcivilsociety,
students,researchers,andsmall-andmedium-sizeenterprisesinRussia,astheystruggleforfreedom,
democracy,andprosperity.Finally,theEUneedstostepupeffortstostemtheflowsofmoneyand
resourcesthatPutinisusingtodestabilizeanddivideEuropespoliticallandscape.

ThosewhoarecallingforasofterapproachtoRussianeedtoremovetheirblindersandrecognizethescale
oftheKremlinseffortstobringabouttheEUsdisintegration.GiventheprospectofaTrump
administrationintheUS,suchpressuresarethelastthingtheEUneeds.HoldingfirmonRussiaisthe
onlywaytoholdEuropetogether.

GermanChancellorAngelaMerkelisabsolutelyrightwhenshesayssheseesnoreasontorollback
sanctionsonRussia.TheKremlinhasdonenothingtodeservesuchareward.Onthecontrary,itdeserves
evenstricterpenalties.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:MartaBurachok<marta.burachok@gmail.com>
Date:Sat,Jun18,2016at6:35AM
Subject:Russianathletesbanis'unfair',saysVladimirPutin-BBCNews
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36565863

Russianathletesbanis'unfair',saysVladimirPutin
VladimirPutinspeaking,17June2016

APMrPutinsaidinnocentathletesshouldnotbepunishedfortheactionsofothers

Russia President Vladimir Putin has said it is unfair the Russian athletics team remains banned from
international contests, including the Rio Olympics.

The International Association of Athletics Federation (IAAF) decided not to lift the suspension, imposed
after accusations of statesponsored doping.

Individual athletes may compete as neutrals if they prove they are clean.

Mr Putin called on the International Olympic Committee (IOC), to intervene.

Doping, violence: What's gone wrong with Russian sport?

The IOC executive board said it would hold a telephone conference on Saturday to discuss the issue ahead
of a full IOC summit in Lausanne on Tuesday.

"There are universally recognised principles of law and one of them is that the responsibility should be
always personified," said President Putin.

"The people who have nothing to do with violations, why should they suffer for those who committed the
violations?"

The country was suspended by the IAAF in November 2015, after an independent World AntiDoping
Association (Wada) report depicted a culture of widespread doping, with even the secret services
involved.

After that, Russia introduced reforms including an overhaul of the rules, the introduction of independent
testing, and antidoping lessons in schools.

A task force has been studying those reforms but a fresh Wada report, issued on Wednesday, made more
damaging claims.

Although significant progress has been made to meet the IAAF's criteria, it said, work still remains. In
particular:

The deepseated culture of tolerance for doping appears not to have changed. The head coach of
the athletics team and athletes appear unwilling to acknowledge the extent of the doping problem.
A strong and effective antidoping infrastructure capable of detecting and deterring doping has still
not been created.
There are detailed allegations that the Ministry of Sport has orchestrated systematic doping and
coverups.

Wada said officials in Russia were being stopped from testing athletes and threatened by security services.

Rune Andersen of the IAAF said Russian athletics had been "tainted by doping from the top level down."

"The systematic doping that has been ongoing in Russia it's difficult to pick the clean athletes," he said.

IAAF's Rune Andersen: "A hundred negative tests does not mean that an athlete is clean"

IOC vicepresident John Coates said Russia's athletes should remain banned and not be allowed to take part
in the Rio Games this summer.

He also said Russia's antidoping agency and athletics body were "rotten to the core".

Meanwhile, Russian pole vaulter Yelena Isinbayeva said she would challenge the IAAF's decision in court,
saying she was "disappointed and angry".

"We are blamed for something we have not done," she said. "I will not remain silent, I will take measures. I
will appeal to the human rights court."

In a statement, Russia's Ministry of Sport said it was "extremely disappointed" by the IAAF decision.

IAAF president Lord Coe said "no politics" were involved in the decision over Russia's ban. He emphasised
the unanimous nature of the verdict and the international range of council members.

On Saturday, Russia said it was investigating its former top antidoping official, who raised the alert before
fleeing to the US.

A criminal investigation has been opened into whether Grigory Rodchenkov abused his authority.

Mr Rodchenkov alleged that the Sochi winter Olympics were the apex of a decadelong effort to perfect
Russia's doping strategy.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:MartaBurachok<marta.burachok@gmail.com>
Date:Sat,Jun18,2016at8:11AM
Subject:RussiaCriesFoul,RestOfWorldWelcomesIAAF'sBan
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/russia-cries-foul-rest-of-world-welcomes-iaafs-ban_us_576460a7e4b015db1bc96ffa?
section=

WeareextremelydisappointedbytheIAAFsdecision,
creatingtheunprecedentedsituationofawholenations
trackandfieldathletesbeingbannedfromthe
Olympics.
RussiaclaimedtheIAAFsdecisiontocontinueitsbanofRussianathleticsonFridaywas
unfairandthreatenedlegalaction,whiletherestoftheworldwelcomedthemoveandurged
theIOCnottogoagainstit.

WeareextremelydisappointedbytheIAAFsdecision,creatingtheunprecedentedsituation
ofawholenationstrackandfieldathletesbeingbannedfromtheOlympics,saidthe
Russianministryofsport.

Cleanathletesdreamsarebeingdestroyedbecauseofthereprehensiblebehaviorofother
athletesandofficials.

WenowappealtothemembersoftheInternationalOlympicCommitteetonotonly
considertheimpactthatourathletesexclusionwillhaveontheirdreamsandthepeopleof
Russia,butalsothattheOlympicsthemselveswillbediminishedbytheirabsence.

TheIAAFvotedunanimouslytoupholditsbanonRussiaforsystematicdoping,sayingthe
countryhadnotmadeenoughprogressonreformstodispelconcernsofstate-sponsored
drugabuse.

TheRussianathleticsfederationblamedthemedia,saying:Thepressurewhichwe
experiencedinthelastfewdaysaheadofthecouncilmeeting,wheneverydaywehadsome
kindofintervieworpublications,whichasarulehadnegativeconnotations,doubtlessly
influencedthedecision.

YelenaIsinbayeva,whohadhopedtoseekathirdOlympicpolevaultgoldinRioandwhois
oneofRussiasmostprominentathletes,describeditasaviolationofhumanrights.

Iwillnotbequiet,Iwilltakesteps.Iwillgotothehumanrightscourt.Iwillprovetothe
IAAFandWADAthattheymadethewrongdecision,shesaid,referringtotheWorldAnti-
DopingAgency.

AKremlinspokesman,speakinghoursbeforethebanwasextended,said:Everything
possibleneededtodefendtherightsofourathletesandtheOlympicteamisbeingdone
andwillbedoneatalegallevel.

TheIOCmerelytooknoteofthedecisionbutsaiditwoulddiscussthesituationina
telephoneconferenceonSaturday.

TheUnitedStatesOlympicCommitteedescribeditasastepintherightdirection.

Itgivesameasureofhopetocleanathletesthatthereareconsequencesnotonlyfor
athleteswhodope,butforcountrieswhichdonotengageseriouslyinthefightagainst
doping,itsaid.

StephanieHightower,presidentofUSTrackandFieldandanIAAFCouncilmember,saidit
wastheonlypropercourseofactiongiventhecompellingandpowerfulevidencepresented
toCouncil.

WedonotbelievethateveryRussianathletecheated,anditisunfortunateandregrettable
thatsomemaypayapenaltyfortheserioustransgressionsoftheirfederation.

TherewassomesympathyelsewheretooforinnocentRussianathletes,withAmerican
OlympicdecathlonsilvermedalistTreyHardeesaying:SaddayforRussianathletes.The
peopleinchargeshouldbepunished,theycreatedthecultureofdope.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:MartaBurachok<marta.burachok@gmail.com>
Date:Sat,Jun18,2016at6:39AM
Subject:Doping,violence:What'sgonewrongwithRussiansport?-BBCNews
To:WalterZaryckyj<waz2102@caa.columbia.edu>

http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-36557689

Doping,violence:What'sgonewrongwithRussian
sport?

EPAAccusedofdoping:Russia'sMariyaSavinova(right)wontheOlympic800matLondon2012and
EkaterinaPoistogovacamethird

When I used to live in central Moscow quite often I would visit the giant swimming pool built for
the 1980 Moscow Olympics.

And as I used to breast-stroke or crawl my way - embarrassingly slowly I have to say - up and down the
lane, I would look up and be inspired by three words printed in big letters on the wall: "Bystree - vyshe -
silnee!" (Faster - Higher - Stronger!).

Now this, of course, is the Olympic motto. But to me these three clarion calls seemed to sum up the
meaning of sport in Russia. It's about pushing the boundaries, constant improvement and, ultimately, about
becoming the best.
AFPRussia loves sporting success: 2008 Olympic champions (from left) Maxim Opalev (canoeing) and Larisa Ilchenko (open

water swimming)

AFPRussians are familiar with President Putin's love of judo and ice hockey

Russia has always been a highly competitive country, whether in the days of communism against capitalism,
the arms race, the space race or an Olympic relay race.

Shadow of doping

Sadly, today if you hear Russian athletes claiming they're becoming "Faster - Higher - Stronger" the first
thing you think about is doing a doping test. Which is unfair, really, because of course not all Russian
sportsmen and women are guilty of taking banned substances.

But there's no doubt that allegations of a state-sponsored doping programme here have cast a huge shadow
over Russian sport.
Russian football fans confront England fans at a cafe in Lille, 14 Jun 16

AFPRussian football fans (foreground) clashed with England fans in Lille (in photo) and Marseille

But it's not just doping scandals that have rocked Russia.

Sometimes I think that instead of wearing snazzy suits, Russian Sports Minister Vitaly Mutko should be
dressed like a firefighter, in a bright yellow hard hat, a hose in one hand and fire extinguisher in the other.
Because recently his job has been all about fighting one fire after another.

For example:

2014: German TV says it has evidence of widespread doping in Russian track and field (Boom. Fire!)
2015: Russian athletes banned from international competitions (Boom. Another blaze!)
Last month - yet another inferno as riot police break up a mass brawl at a top Russian wrestling
competition
And just a few days ago, at Euro 2016, Russia is threatened with disqualification over its football
hooligans, three of whom are later jailed in France

Russian Sports Minister Vitaly Mutko facing reporters, 8 Jun 16

AFPThe Olympic doping scandal put Russian Sports Minister Vitaly Mutko in the media spotlight
What on earth has gone wrong with Russian sport?

Well, you often hear officials and politicians here claiming that it's not their fault, that it's not Russia lighting
all these fires - that this is arson by the West, which is exaggerating the problems in Russian sport for
political gain.

Moscow maintains that sports doping is a global problem, football hooliganism is a global problem. Don't
dump the blame solely on us, they cry.

But Moscow's sternest critics say that cheating and violence in sport here is the result of a resurgent and
belligerent Russia which seeks victories on all fronts and at all costs.

Whatever the reason, Russia's reputation is suffering. It reminds me rather of how I used to feel as I
spluttered my way across the Olympic swimming pool - in other words, there's a bit of a sinking feeling
about Russian sport.

----------Forwardedmessage----------
From:hunter@
Date:Sat,Jun18,2016at9:49AM
Subject:Russianhooligansweresavageandorganised,sayEnglandfans[ED:THEPHOTOSINTHEARTICLEBELOWARE
REVEALING]
To:waz2102@caa.columbia.edu

http://www.theguardian.com/football/2016/jun/12/russian-hooligans-savage-organised-england-fans-marseille-euro-2016#img-3

Russianhooligansweresavageand
organised,sayEnglandfans
SomeweredisguisedinEnglishclubshirtsandequippedwithgumshieldsand
truncheonsforviolenceinMarseille
DanielBoffeyinMarseille
Sunday12June201610.37EDT

EnglandfansembroiledinviolenceinMarseilleonSaturdaynighthavesaidgroupsofRussianhooligans
launchedsavagecoordinatedattacksaroundthecity,disguisedinEnglishclubshirtsandequippedwith
gumshieldsandtelescopictruncheons.

RoamingRussianfansapproachedtheviolence,whichoccurredbeforeandafterEnglandsopeningEuro
2016gameinMarseille,withmilitaryorganisation,fanssaid,asUefaopeneddisciplinaryproceedings
againstRussiasfootballunion.

CallingcardswerepostedonlamppostsaroundtheOldPortareaoftown,seeminglytoguidethehooligans
astowheretocongregatebeforeactsofviolencethatevenseasonedtravellerswithEnglandsaidwerethe
worsttheyhadexperienced.

RebekahVardy,thewifeoftheEnglandstrikerJamie,hadtobeescortedfromabrasserienearthestadium
afterriotpoliceteargassedmaraudinghooligans.

ShetweetedonSunday:ThathastobeuptherewiththeworstexperienceEVERatanawaygame!
Teargassedfornoreason,cagedandtreatedlikeanimals!Shocking!Iwitnessedthiswithmyowneyes!I
cantcommentonthingsIdidntseebutwhatIgotcaughtupinwashorrificanduncalledfor!

Uefasaiditscontrol,ethicsanddisciplinarybodieshadopenedacaseagainstRussiaoveritssupporter
stormingoftheEnglandendoftheStadeVelodromeattheendofthegame,racistbehaviourduringthe
matchandtheuseoffireworks.

ItsaiditwouldjudgethecaseonTuesday,beforeRussiassecondEuro2016GroupBmatchagainst
SlovakiaonWednesday,andwouldimplementcorrectivemeasurestostrengthensecurityatstadiumsas
aresultofsegregationissues.

Themajorityofthe35peopleinjuredonSaturday,fourofthemseriously,wereattackedoutsidethe
stadium.

ApoliceofficerhadtoadministerCPRtoa51-year-oldmanintheOldPortafterhewasstruckonthehead
withaweaponandrepeatedlykickedontheground.Heissaidtobecriticallyill.

OneEnglishmanisstillinhospitalhoveringbetweenlifeanddeath,apolicespokesmansaid.Heisina
criticalconditionafterhisheartstoppedbeforerevival.

OnSundaymorningfriendsofthemandroppedoffhisbagsattheTimonehospitalontheoutskirtsofthe
city,beforeleavingMarseillewithouthavingbeenallowedtovisithim.Thetwomenintheir50sdeclined
tospeakabouttheconditionoftheirfriend.

Ahospitalsourcesaid:Theconsulatetoldhistwofriendstobringhisbagsdownandleavethemwiththe
doctors,buttheywerenotabletovisitorseehimastheywerenothisdirectfamily.Theyjustleftthe
hospitalandsaidtheyhadatraintocatch.

InthedaysprecedingtheworstoftheviolenceonSaturdayevening,therewereconfrontationsbetween
EnglandfansandFrenchriotpolice.TherewerewidelyreportedincidentsofBritishvisitorstothetown
chantingloudlyandthrowingbottleswhenconfrontedbytheauthorities.

EnglandfansleavingMarseillefromtheStCharlestrainstationonSunday,however,saidRussianshad
appearedintentonattackingthemfromthemomenttheyappearedintheOldPortpartofMarseilleon
Saturdayafternoon.

Theywereveryorganised,saidIanAllsop,abuilderfromLuton.Theyworegumshields,somehad
Englandshirtsontomixin.TheyweretheretodotheEnglish.Andtheywerethickset,stockyguys.People
weregettingbottlessmashedontheirheads,batssmashedintothem.Loadsofpeoplewerehurt.

Allsopsaidhehadbeenlookingforhis24-year-oldsonduringtheviolencewhenhewasattacked.About
300Russianscameoutofnowhere.TheyjustwalkedstraightthroughalltheEnglandfanswhowere
standingaboutsinging,hesaid.TheRussiansjuststartedhittinganyonetheycould.

Onewenttopunchme,Iduckedandpunchedhimbacktodefendmyself.Ihadto.Butthensomeone
tookabattomyarm.Itiskillingmetoday.Ihavegotticketsforthesemi-finalbutIwouldntcomeifitwas
here.Later,onthewaytothegame,agroupoflocalsstartingspittingatus.Wetoldthemtostopandthey
tookoutknivesonus.Thepolicewerenowhere.

MartynLowe,28,fromStoke-on-Trent,aself-employeddeliverydriverandfatheroftwo,wasleftwith
brokenribsandablackeyeafterbeingknockedunconsciousinanattack.

Lowesaid:Imherewithagroupof10mates.WewereoutsidetheQueenVictoriapubintheOldPort
havingsomebeers.ThenatleastthreeorfourhundredRussianscamemarchingthrough.Oneofthemhit
meontheheadwithabottleandasIreeledpunchedmeintheface.Ihadnoideahowmanywere
attackingme.

Theycameatmefromeverydirection.IwastryingtogetawaybutthenextthingIwasonthefloor.They
musthavekickedmeonthefloorbecauseIvegotbrokenribs.Itlookedliketheywereveryorganised.I
wastakentohospital.Iwokeupintheambulance,coveredinblood.

Mytrainerswerestolen,100inmywalletandaniPhone6.Ifthatsthewaytheygettheirkicksthenfair
enough.

RichardWakefield,40,fromYork,travelledtoMarseillewithhisfriendChrisSnowdon,39,fromFleet,
Hampshire.WakefieldsaidtheywouldnotnowattendanupcomingRussiagameforwhichtheyhave
tickets.WewerewalkingtothegroundmindingourownbusinesswhentheRussiansattacked,hesaid.
Therewasabiggroupofthem.Theycamerunningatusandwerekickingandhittingpeople.

Igotasmackroundtheheadandhaveacuteye.Ilostmyphoneafterbeingknockeddown.Icouldntget
intouchwithChris.Iwentintothegroundbutleftathalf-timebecauseIwasbleedingandshaken.

Itsjustsosad.Thepolicehadbeengreat,firmbutsensible.ThentheRussianswentberserk.Funnily
enough,wevegotticketsforRussiaagainstSlovakiainLille.Theresnowayweregoingnow.

KeithMoore,52,fromManchester,said:Wewerebeinghitconstantly.Wewerejuststandingaround
havingsomebeersandabitoffoodonSaturdayafternoonwhenaround25Russianssteamedin.

Youcouldeasilyseewhotheywere.TheyhadblackT-shirtswithRussianwritingon,andwereall
extremelymuscular.Theydidntmuckabout.TheypickedoutEnglishblokestoattack,andthenranoff

ConcernsforthesafetyofEnglandfansasthetournamentprogresseshavebeenraisedbytheshadow
homesecretary,AndyBurnham,whocalledforTheresaMay,thehomesecretary,tomakeastatementin
parliament.

Hesaid:ThewholecountrywillhavebeenappalledbythefrighteningscenesofviolenceinMarseille.As
ever,aminorityoftroublemakershavesouredwhatshouldhavebeenanenjoyableoccasionandputthe
safetyofinnocentpeopleatrisk.

WhiletheEnglandfansarenotblameless,itisclearthatthesituationchangedyesterdayandtheywere
subjecttoextremeprovocationandviolence.Withtherestofthetournamenttogo,thereareconcernsfor
thesafetyofsupportersofallhomenations.

Giventheseriousnessofsituation,Iamsurprisedbythesilencefromthegovernment.ThatiswhyIam
callingonthehomesecretarytomakeanurgentstatementtoparliamenttomorrowontheactionssheis
proposingtotake,workingwiththeFrenchauthoritiesandUefa,topreventanyrepeatofwhatwehave
seen.

DashaTimofeeva,27,aRussiafanwhowasatthegamewithherfather,Viktor,saidtheeventhadbeen
poorlypoliced,andshewasashamedofthebehaviourofsomeofhercompatriots.

WeareofcoursesorrytotheEnglishwhogothurt,butpleasebelieveusthatnotallRussianpeopleare
likethesehooligans,shesaid.Thereisahooligansub-cultureinRussiaandsorrybutthereisnothingus
fanscandoaboutthat.

Wewereverysurprisedthattherewerenopoliceinthestadium.Whynot?InRussiathepolicearevery
strongandkeepthehooligansincontrol.Therewasnocontrolinthestadiumlastnight.

Butalso,theEnglishfanswerenotkindeither.MyfatherandIwereintheOldPortandhadtorunaway
fromthebottlesandgas.OtherEnglandsupporterssaidsorrytous.Sobothcountrieshavegoodandbad
peopleatfootballmatches.

---------Forwardedmessage----------
From:MichaelAverko<michaelaverko@msn.com>
Date:Sat,Jun18,2016at9:32AM
Subject:IAAF&IOCFraud
To:

Re:http://www.firstpost.com/sports/iaaf-chief-sebastian-coe-confident-there-wont-be-many-russians-at-rio-2016-
competing-under-a-neutral-flag-2842350.html&http://espn.go.com/olympics/story/_/id/16305819/ioc-fully-supports-iaaf-
decision-ban-russia

It'sperfectlyvalidtonotethemultiplesourcesindicatingthatJamaicaandKenyahavehadnumerousirregularities.Arecently
airedESPNOutsideTheLinesshownotedaJamaicanwhistleblowerwhosuggestedasmuchregardinghercountry

Inessence,LordCoeisacknowledgingadoublestandard,undertheinfluenceofanti-Russianpropaganda,thatmesheswell
withcountriesliketheUK,US,GermanyandAustralia,standingtogainagreatershareofmedalsc/ogrosslyhypocritical
standards.

KenyaandJamaicaaretrack&fieldpowers,shortofbeingatopoverallOlympiccountryunlikeRussia.Hence,it'seasier
forsometooverlookcountrieswhicharen'tinthetoptenoverallOlympicmedaltally.Moreover,theanti-Russianstrainevident
inWesternmassmediaandbodypolitic,hasundoubtedlyhadaninfluenceinshapingthemindsofthoserootingforacomplete
OlympicbanagainstRussians.

NooneisaslikelytobeaccusedofbeingracistbyselectivelytargetingRussia/Russiansunlikesomeothercountries.Articles
likethisonerelatetothatobservation:

http://www.nzherald.co.nz/sport/news/article.cfm?c_id=4&objectid=11659059

NotetheslicksuggestionthatYelenaIsinbayevamightnotbeinnocent.Basedonwhat'sknownandnotknown,shecertainly
doesntappearmoreguiltythanCarlLewisandFlorenceGriffinJoyner:

http://www.google.com/search?
hl=en&source=hp&biw=&bih=&q=carl+lewis+drugs+doping&gbv=2&oq=carl+lewis+drugs+doping&gs_l=heirloom-
hp.12...1703.14031.0.15500.25.8.1.12.13.0.703.2376.0j1j6j6-1.8.0....0...1ac.1.34.heirloom-hp..14.11.2471.D5M7ZKBF9UU

http://www.google.com/search?
q=florence+griifin+joyner+drugs+dpoing&hl=en&gbv=2&oq=florence+griifin+joyner+drugs+dpoing&gs_l=heirloom-
serp.12..30i10.3844.8828.0.11438.13.13.0.0.0.0.250.2048.1j7j4.12.0....0...1ac.1.34.heirloom-serp..1.12.2048.BhlJ6ySyfmI

ArticleswithacontrastingviewfromwhathasbeenfavoredinWesternmassmedia:

http://www.strategic-culture.org/news/2016/01/24/russian-athletics-punishment-hopefully-end-by-next-olympics.html

IncludesthefactbasedsuggestionofabiasagainstpredominatelySlavicOrthodoxChristiannations.Russiaisthecurrent
target.In1992Yugoslavia(SerbiaandMontenegro)wasanother.Considerthenon-suspensionagainstOlympiccountries
involvedinwarsthatledtomanymoredeathsthanwhathappenedinBosnia.

http://www.eurasiareview.com/09062016-enhanced-russia-bashing-at-the-new-york-times-analysis/

ThecurrentOlympicissueisdiscussedattheend.

MichaelAverko-http://www.eurasiareview.com/author/michael-averko/

From: WayneAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>
Senttime: 06/18/201610:02:27AM
To: WayneandStacyAllensworth<swallen@1scom.net>
Subject: InternetNotes18June2016
Attachments: IN18June16.docx

InternetNotes18June2016

MoreontheSt.PetersburgEconomicForum(PutinsspeechandQ&A:Russia/NATO/AnewColdWar?Ukraine/the
MinskagreementsSyria/Assad/ElectionsUSpresidentialelections/Russia-USThedopingscandal/Russiansoccer
fans)

StanovayaontheEconomicForumandforeignbusiness

SoloveyongesturestoAmerica

GermanforeignministeronNATOwarmongering

MoreontheSt.PetersburgEconomicForum(PutinsspeechandQ&A:Russia/NATO/AnewColdWar?Ukraine/the
MinskagreementsSyria/Assad/ElectionsUSpresidentialelections/Russia-USThedopingscandal/Russiansoccer
fans)

Seeyesterdaysnotes.

IdidabriefsummaryofPutinsspeechandincludedalinktotheRussianinyesterdaysnotes.HereareexcerptsfromanEnglish
versionofthespeech:http://en.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/52178

Thestructuralproblemsaccumulatedbytheglobaleconomystillpersist,andwehavenotyetputoureconomyonthegrowthtrajectory.

Incidentally,currentgeopoliticaltensionsarerelated,tosomeextent,toeconomicuncertainty
andtheexhaustingoftheoldsourcesofgrowth.Thereisariskitmayincreaseorevenbeartificiallyprovoked.
Itisourcommoninteresttofindacreativeandconstructivewayoutofthissituation.
Theworldsleadingeconomiesarelookingforsourcesofgrowth,andtheyarelookingtocapitalise
ontheenormousexistingandgrowingpotentialofdigitalandindustrialtechnologies,robotics,energy,
biotechnology,medicineandotherfields.Discoveriesintheseareascanleadtotruetechnologicalrevolutions,
toanexplosivegrowthoflabourproductivity.Thisisalreadyhappeningandwillhappeninevitablythereis

impendingrestructuringofentireindustries,thedevaluationofmanyfacilitiesandassets.Thiswillalter
thedemandforskillsandcompetencies,andcompetitionwillescalateinbothtraditionalandemerging
markets.
Infact,eventodaywecanseeattemptstosecureorevenmonopolisethebenefitsofnextgeneration

technologies.This,Ithink,isthemotivebehindthecreationofrestrictedareaswithregulatorybarriers
toreducethecross-flowofbreakthroughtechnologiestootherregionsoftheworldwithfairlytightcontrolover
cooperationchainsformaximumgainfromtechnologicaladvances.Wehavediscussedthiswithour
colleaguessomesayitispossible.Ithinknot.Onecancontrolthespreadofcertaintechnologiesforawhile,

butintoday'sworlditwouldbenexttoimpossibletokeeptheminacontainedarea,evenalargearea.Yet,
theseeffortscouldleadtobasicsciences,nowopentosharingofknowledgeandinformationthroughjoint
projects,gettingclosedtoo,withseparationbarrierscomingup.
Over40statesandinternationalorganisationshaveexpressedthedesiretoestablishafreetradezonewith

theEurasianEconomicUnion.OurpartnersandwethinkthattheEAEUcanbecomeoneofthecentres
ofagreateremergentintegrationarea.Amongotherbenefits,wecanaddressambitioustechnological
problemswithinitsframework,promotetechnologicalprogressandattractnewmembers.Wediscussedthis
inAstanaquiterecently.NowweproposeconsideringtheprospectsformoreextensiveEurasianpartnership

involvingtheEAEUandcountrieswithwhichwealreadyhaveclosepartnershipChina,India,Pakistan
andIranandcertainlyourCISpartners,andotherinterestedcountriesandassociations.
AsearlyasJunewe,alongwithourChinesecolleagues,areplanningtostartofficialtalksontheformation
ofcomprehensivetradeandeconomicpartnershipinEurasiawiththeparticipationoftheEuropeanUnion

statesandChina.IexpectthatthiswillbecomeoneofthefirststepstowardtheformationofamajorEurasian
partnership.WewillcertainlyresumethediscussionofthismajorprojectattheEasternEconomicForum
inVladivostokinearlySeptember.Colleagues,Iwouldliketotakethisopportunitytoinviteallofyoutotake
partinit.

Friends,theprojectIhavejustmentionedthegreaterEurasiaprojectis,ofcourse,openforEurope,
andIamconvincedthatsuchcooperationmaybemutuallybeneficial.Despiteallofthewell-knownproblems
inourrelations,theEuropeanUnionremainsRussiaskeytradeandeconomicpartner.Itisournext-door
neighbourandwearenotindifferenttowhatishappeninginthelivesofourneighbours,Europeancountries

andtheEuropeaneconomy.
ThechallengeofthetechnologicalrevolutionandstructuralchangesarenolessurgentfortheEUthan
forRussia.IalsounderstandourEuropeanpartnerswhentheytalkaboutthecomplicateddecisionsforEurope
thatweremadeatthetalksontheformationoftheTrans-Atlanticpartnership.Obviously,Europehasavast

potentialandastakeonjustoneregionalassociationclearlynarrowsitsopportunities.Under
thecircumstances,itisdifficultforEuropetomaintainbalanceandpreservespaceforagainfulmanoeuvre.
AstherecentmeetingswithrepresentativesoftheGermanandFrenchbusinesscircleshaveshowed,
Europeanbusinessiswillingandreadytocooperatewiththiscountry.Politiciansshouldmeetbusinesses
halfwaybydisplayingwisdom,andafar-sightedandflexibleapproach.WemustreturntrusttoRussian-

Europeanrelationsandrestorethelevelofourcooperation.
Werememberhowitallstarted.Russiadidnotinitiatethecurrentbreakdown,disruption,problems
andsanctions.Allouractionshavebeenexclusivelyreciprocal.Butwedontholdagrudge,astheysay,
andarereadytomeetourEuropeanpartnershalfway.However,thiscanbynomeansbeaone-waystreet.

LetmerepeatthatweareinterestedinEuropeansjoiningtheprojectforamajorEurasianpartnership.Inthis
contextwewelcometheinitiativeofthePresidentofKazakhstanonholdingconsultationsbetween
theEurasianEconomicUnionandtheEU.Yesterdaywediscussedthisissueatthemeetingwith
thePresidentoftheEuropeanCommission.

Russiahasmanagedtoresolvethemosturgentcurrentproblemsintheeconomy.Wehopegrowthwill
resumeinthenearfuture.Wehavemaintainedreservesandsubstantiallyreducedcapitaldrainbyfivetimes
comparedwiththefirstquarterof2016.Inflationisgoingdownaswell.Ithasfallenalmostinhalfifwecompare
severalmonthsin20142015withthesameperiodin20152016.Ibelievethatitispossibletobringinflation

downto45percentasearlyasinthemid-termperspective.
Inaddition,itisnecessarytograduallydecreasethebudgetdeficitandthedependenceonrevenuesfrom
hydrocarbonsandotherrawmaterials.Thisincludescuttingournon-oilandgasdeficitatleastinhalf
inthenext5to7years.

Thecurrentslowdownisaglobaltrend.
Akeyfactorthatpredeterminestheoverallcompetitivenessoftheeconomy,marketdynamics,GDPgrowth
andhigherwagesislaborproductivity.Weneedhigherlaborproductivityatlargeandmedium-sized
enterprises:inindustry,intheconstructionandthetransportsectorsandinagriculturenolessthan5

percentayear.Thisappearstobeachallengingandevenunattainablegoal,ifwelookatwhatishappening
heretoday.Atthesametime,theexamplesofnumerousenterprises,aswellasofentiremanufacturing
sectors,suchastheaircraftindustry,thechemicalindustry,pharmaceuticsandagriculture,showthatthis
goalisquitefeasibleandrealistic.

Wewilldeveloplegislation,taxregulatorsandtechnicalstandardstoincentivisecompaniestoraiselabour
productivityandintroducelabourandenergysavingtechnology.Withthegrowthoflabourproductivity,
inefficientemploymentwillinevitablyshrink,whichmeanswewillneedtosubstantiallyincreasethelabour
marketsflexibility,toofferpeoplenewopportunities.Wewillbeabletoresolvethisproblemprimarily

bycreatingmorejobsatsmallandmedium-sizedbusinesses.Thenumberofpeople(whatIamgoingtosayis
veryimportant)employedatsmallandmedium-sizedbusinessesshouldgrowfromtoday's18million
byatleast1.4millionby2020andbymorethan3millionby2025.Itwillbedifficulttoincreasesupport
forsmallandmedium-sizedbusinesses,andstillhardertoconsistentlybuildanicheforitsoperation.Butit
needstobedone.

Ishouldaddthatourimportreplacementprogrammeisalsoaimedatmanufacturinggoodsthatare
competitiveontheglobalmarket.Andinthissense,Iwouldalsoliketostressthatimportreplacementis
animportantstageforexpandingexportsinsectorsotherthanrawmaterialsandfindingaplaceforour
companiesinglobalmanufacturingandtechnologicalalliancesandnotinsecondaryroles,butasstrong

andeffectivepartners.
Friends,wewillcontinuetofurtherliberaliseandimprovethebusinessclimate.Iknowagreatdealhasbeen
saidaboutthisatforumeventstodayandyesterday.Wewilltacklesystemicproblems,ofwhichwestillhave
plenty.Thisincludesimprovingtransparencyandbalancingrelationsbetweengovernmentagencies

andbusinesses.Theserelationsshouldbebuiltonunderstandingandmutualresponsibility,meticulous
observanceandcompliancewithlawsandrespectfortheinterestsofthestateandsociety,
andtheunconditionalvalueoftheinstitutionofprivateproperty.
Itisessentialtodrasticallyreduceillegalcriminalprosecutions.Furthermore,representativesofsecurity

andlawenforcementagenciesshouldbemadepersonallyliableforunjustifiedactionsleading
tothedestructionofabusinessenterprise.Ibelievethatthisliabilitycanbecriminal.
Irealizethatthisisaverysensitiveissue.Wecannotandshouldnotbindourlawenforcementagencieshand
andfoot.However,withoutadoubt,thereisaneedforbalancehere,forafirmbarriertoanyabusesofpower.

TheleadershipoftheProsecutorGeneralsOffice,theInvestigativeCommittee,theInteriorMinistry
andtheFederalSecurityServiceshouldcontinuouslymonitorthesituationonthegroundand,ifnecessary,
takemeasurestoimprovelegislation.
Iasktheworkinggrouponlawenforcementinentrepreneurialactivity,whichisheadedbyChiefofStaff

ofthePresidentialExecutiveOfficeSergeiIvanov,tofocusontheseissuesaswell.IshouldaddthatIhave
alreadysubmittedtoparliamentapackageofdraftlawspreparedbytheworkinggroup,designedtohumanise
theso-calledeconomicstatutes[oftheCriminalCode].Thatsaid,itisalsoimportanttoguaranteebusinesses
andallcitizenstherighttofairandimpartialdefenceincourt.

TheRussianjudicialcommunityhasdoneagooddealrecentlytoimprovethequalityofthecourtsystem.
ThemergingoftheSupremeandtheHigherArbitrationcourtshasplayedapositiveroleinensuring
theuniformityoflawenforcement.Ibelieveitisnecessarytomovefurthertowardenhancingtheresponsibility
ofjudgesandmakingthejudicialprocessmoretransparent.

Amajorroleincreatingafavorablebusinessenvironment,withoutadoubt,belongstoRussianregions.Iknow
thatthiswasdiscussedatforumeventsinthemorning,andtheresultsoftheannualnationalinvestment
climateratingswereannounced.Iwouldliketojoinincongratulatingthewinnersandremindyouthattheseare
TatarstanandtheBelgorodandKalugaregions.Iwouldalsoliketonotethesignificantprogressmade

bytheTula,Vladimir,Tyumen,Kirov,LipetskandOrelregions,andthecityofMoscow.
Whatstandsouthere?Judgingbytheresults,acoregroupofleadershasalreadyemerged,whoareinvariably
atthetopofrankings.Thenaturalquestionis:Wherearetheothers?IasktheGovernment,inconjunctionwith
businesscommunities,toconsideradditionalmechanismstorewardthebestregionaladministrativeteams.
Ontheotherhand,wewilltakeseriousmeasures,includingdismissals,withregardtoregionalleaderswhodo

notunderstandthatbusinesssupportisamajorresourceforregionalandnationaldevelopment.Iwouldlike
mycolleaguesintheregions,aboveall,regionalleaderstohearme.Wewillseriouslyanalysewhatis
happeninginthissphereineachRussianregionanddiscusstheissueindepthintheautumn.
Ladiesandgentlemen,IhavealreadytalkedaboutRussiasparticipationincooperativescientificresearch

projects,inparticularwithEuropeancountries.Itisessentialtoaddthatwehaveacoreadvantages
inphysics,mathematicsandchemistry.Asyouknow,recentlywehonouredscientistswhowontheNational
Award,whohavemadebrilliantbreakthroughsinbiology,geneticsandmedicine.Russianmicrobiologistshave
developed,forexample,aneffectivevaccineagainstEbola.Nationalcompaniesaregoingtobringanentireline

ofunmannedvehiclestothemarketandareworkingonenergydistributionandstorage,anddigitalsea
navigationsystems.Wehavepracticallyputinplaceatechnologicaldevelopmentmanagementsystem.What
doesthisentailandwhatwouldIliketosayinthiscontext?
First.TherecentlyformedTechnologyDevelopmentAgencywillhelpapplycurrentresearchtoreal

manufacturingandsetupjointventureswithforeignpartners.
Second.Anothermechanismwillbeinusestartingin2019.Majormanufacturerswillbemadelegallybound
tousethemostadvancedtechnologiesmeetingthehighestenvironmentalstandards.Hopefully,thiswillgive
aseriousboosttoindustrialmodernisation.Manyneighbouringcountriesintroducedsuchrequirementslong

ago.Wehavehadtoputoffthesechangesduetoproblemsintherealeconomicsectors,butwecantkeep
postponingitanymore.Ourbusinesscolleaguesknowthisandmustbeprepared.
Andfinally,third.TheNationalTechnologyInitiativecoversprojectsofthefuturebasedontechnologiesthatwill
createfundamentallynewmarketsinadecadeortwo.IwouldliketoasktheGovernmenttopromptlyremove

administrative,legislativeandotherobstaclesblockingthedevelopmentoffuturemarkets.Itisessential
tobackuptechnologicaldevelopmentwithfinancialresources.Therefore,thekeytaskfacingtheoverhauled
Vnesheconombankwillbetosupportlong-termprojects,attractiveprojectsinthishigh-techsector.
Weclearlyunderstandthatitispeoplewhocreateandusetechnologies.Talentedresearchers,qualified

engineersandworkersplayacrucialroleinmakingthenationaleconomycompetitive.Thereforeeducationis
somethingweshouldpayparticularattentiontointhenextfewyears.
Colleagues,obviouslytheissuesthatwearefacingcallfornewapproachestowarddevelopment
management,andherewearedeterminedtomakeactiveuseoftheprojectprinciple.Apresidentialcouncil

forstrategicdevelopmentandpriorityprojectswillbecreatedinthenearfuture.Itwillbeheadedbyyour
humbleservant,whilethecouncilpresidiumwillbeledbyPrimeMinisterDmitryMedvedev.
Thecouncilwilldealwithkeyprojectsaimedateffectingstructuralchangesintheeconomyandthesocial
sphere,andincreasinggrowthrates.Ihavespokenaboutsomeoftheseprojectstoday:raisinglabour
productivity,thebusinessclimate,supportforsmallandmedium-sizedbusiness,andexportsupport,among

others.
Plenarysessionmoderator,CNNhostFareedZakaria:Thankyoutoallthreeofyou:twopresidents,one
primeminister,thoughinItaly,youareallowedtosayPresidentRenzialso.Bytheformatwehaveagreed
upon,whatIwilldoiswewillbeginthisdiscussionfirstwithourhostpresident,PresidentPutin,andthenIwill
widenthatconversationtoincludePrimeMinisterRenziandPresidentNazarbayev.Westartedalittlebitlate,
sowewillgoalittlebitlonger.
PresidentPutin,letmeaskyouaverysimplequestion.Since2014,youhavehadEuropeanUnionsanctions
andUSsanctionsagainstRussia.NATOhasannouncedjustthisweekthatitisgoingtobuildupforces

instatesthatborderRussia.Russiahasannounceditsownbuildup.Arewesettlingintoalow-grade,lower-
levelcoldwarbetweentheWestandRussia?
VladimirPutin:IdonotwanttobelievethatwearemovingtowardsanotherColdWar,andIamsure
nobodywantsthis.Wecertainlydonot.Thereisnoneedforthis.Themainlogicbehindinternational
relationsdevelopmentisthatnomatterhowdramaticitmightseem,itisnotthelogicofglobal
confrontation.Whatistherootoftheproblem?
Iwilltellyou.Iwillhavetotakeyoubackintime.AfterthecollapseoftheSovietUnion,weexpectedoverall
prosperityandoveralltrust.Unfortunately,Russiahadtofacenumerouschallenges,speakinginmodernterms:

economic,socialanddomesticpolicy.Wecameupagainstseparatism,radicalism,aggressionofinternational
terror,becauseundoubtedlywewerefightingagainstAlQaedamilitantsintheCaucasus,itisanobviousfact,
andtherecanbenosecondthoughtsaboutit.Butinsteadofsupportfromourpartnersinourstrugglewith
theseproblems,wesadlycameacrosssomethingdifferentsupportfortheseparatists.Weweretold,Wedo

notacceptyourseparatistsatthetoppoliticallevel,onlyatthetechnological.
Verywell.Weappreciateit.Butwealsosawinformationsupport,financialsupportandadministrativebackup.
Later,afterwetackledthoseproblems,wentthroughserioushardships,wecametofaceanotherthing.
TheSovietUnionwasnomoretheWarsawPacthadceasedtoexist.Butforsomereason,NATOcontinues

toexpanditsinfrastructuretowardsRussiasborders.Itstartedlongbeforeyesterday.Montenegroisbecoming
a[NATO]member.WhoisthreateningMontenegro?Yousee,ourpositionisbeingtotallyignored.
Another,equallyimportant,orperhaps,themostimportantissueistheunilateralwithdrawal[oftheUS]from
theABMTreaty.TheABMTreatywasonceconcludedbetweentheSovietUnionandtheUnitedStates

foragoodreason.TworegionswereallowedtostayMoscowandthesiteofUSICBMsilos.
Thetreatywasdesignedtoprovideastrategicbalanceintheworld.However,theyunilaterallyquitthetreaty,
sayinginafriendlymanner,Thisisnotaimedagainstyou.Youwanttodevelopyouroffensivearms,andwe
assumeitisnotaimedagainstus.

Youknowwhytheysaidso?Itissimple:nobodyexpectedRussiaintheearly2000s,whenitwasstruggling
withitsdomesticproblems,tornapartbyinternalconflicts,politicalandeconomicproblems,tortured
byterrorists,torestoreitsdefencesector.Clearly,nobodyexpectedustobeabletomaintainourarsenals,let
alonehavenewstrategicweapons.Theythoughttheywouldbuilduptheirmissiledefenceforcesunilaterally
whileourarsenalswouldbeshrinking.

AllofthiswasdoneunderthepretextofcombattingtheIraniannuclearthreat.WhathasbecomeoftheIranian
nuclearthreatnow?Thereisnone,buttheprojectcontinues.Thisisthewayitis,stepbystep,oneafter
another,andsoon.
Thentheybegantosupportallkindsofcolourrevolutions,includingtheso-calledArabSpring.Theyfervently

supportedit.Howmanypositivetakesdidwehearonwhatwasgoingon?Whatdiditleadto?Chaos.
Iamnotinterestedinlayingblamenow.Isimplywanttosaythatifthispolicyofunilateralactionscontinues
andifstepsintheinternationalarenathatareverysensitivetotheinternationalcommunityarenotcoordinated
thensuchconsequencesareinevitable.Conversely,ifwelistentooneanotherandseekoutabalance

ofinterests,thiswillnothappen.Yes,itisadifficultprocess,theprocessofreachingagreement,butitis
theonlypathtoacceptablesolutions.
Ibelievethatifweensuresuchcooperation,therewillbenotalkofacoldwar.Afterall,sincetheArabSpring,
theyhavealreadyapproachedourborders.WhydidtheyhavetosupportthecoupinUkraine?Ihaveoften

spokenaboutthis.Theinternalpoliticalsituationthereiscomplicatedandtheoppositionthatisinpowernow
wouldmostlikelyhavecometopowerdemocratically,throughelections.Thatsit.Wewouldhaveworkedwith
themaswehadwiththegovernmentthatwasinpowerbeforePresidentYanukovych.
Butno,theyhadtoproceedwithacoup,casualties,unleashbloodshed,acivilwar,andscaretheRussian-

speakingpopulationofsoutheasternUkraineandCrimea.Allforthesakeofwhat?Andafterwehadto,simply
hadtotakemeasurestoprotectcertainsocialgroups,theybegantoescalatethesituation,ratchetingup
tensions.Inmyopinion,thisisbeingdone,amongotherthings,tojustifytheexistenceoftheNorthAtlantic
bloc.Theyneedanexternaladversary,anexternalenemyotherwisewhyisthisorganisationnecessary

inthefirstplace?ThereisnoWarsawPact,noSovietUnionwhoisitdirectedagainst?
Ifwecontinuetoactaccordingtothislogic,escalating[tensions]andredoublingeffortstoscareeachother,
thenonedayitwillcometoacoldwar.Ourlogicistotallydifferent.Itisfocusedoncooperationandthesearch
forcompromise.(Applause.)

FareedZakaria:Soletmeaskyou,MrPresident,thenwhatisthewayout?BecauseIsawaninterview
ofyoursthatyoudidwithDieWelt,theGermannewspaper,inwhichyousaid,thekeyproblemisthat
theMinskAccordshavenotbeenimplementedbytheGovernmentinUkraine,byKiev,theconstitutional
reforms.TheysayontheothersidethatinEasternUkraine,theviolencehasnotcomedown,
andtheseparatistsarenotrestrainingthemselves,andtheybelieveRussiashouldhelp.Sosinceneither
sideseemstobackdown,willthesanctionsjustcontinue,willthislow-gradecoldwarjustcontinue?What
isthewayout?
VladimirPutin:Anditisallaboutpeople,nomatterwhatyoucallthem.Itisaboutpeopletryingtoprotect
theirlegalrightsandinterests,whofearrepressioniftheseinterestsarenotupheldatthepoliticallevel.
IfwelookattheMinskagreements,thereareonlyafewpoints,andwediscussedthemallthroughthenight.
Whatwastheboneofcontention?Whataspectisofprimaryimportance?Andweagreedultimatelythat
politicalsolutionsthatensurethesecurityofpeoplelivinginDonbasswerethepriority.
Whatarethesepoliticalsolutions?Theyarelaiddownindetailintheagreements.Constitutionalamendments

thathadtobeadoptedbytheendof2015.Butwherearethey?Theyarenowheretobeseen.Thelaw
onaspecialstatusoftheseterritories,whichwecallunrecognizedrepublics,shouldhavebeenputinto
practice.Thelawhasbeenpassedbythecountrysparliamentbutstillhasntcomeintoeffect.Thereshould
havebeenanamnestylaw.ItwaspassedbytheUkrainianparliamentbutwasneversignedbythepresident,it

hasnoeffect.
Whatkindofelectionsarewetalkingabout?Whatsortofelectionprocesscanbeorganisedduringananti-
terroristoperation?Doanycountriesdothat?Wedonottalkaboutit,butdoesanyothercountryholdelection
campaignswhenananti-terroristoperationistakingplaceonitsterritory?

They[elections]havetobecancelledandourworkshouldfocusoneconomicandhumanitarianrestoration.
Nothingisbeingdone,nothingatall.Postponingtheseproblemsoveron-goingviolenceonthefrontlinesisjust
anexcuse.Whatishappeninginrealityisthatbothsidesareaccusingeachotherofopeningfire.Whydoyou
thinkitisseparatistswhoareshooting?Ifyouaskthem,theysay,ItisUkrainiangovernmentforces,

theUkrainianarmy.
Onesideopensfire,theothersiderespondsthatswhatexchangingfiremeans.Doyouthinkthisisagood
enoughreasontodelaypoliticalreforms?Onthecontrary,politicalreformsthatwillconstitutethefoundation
ofafinalsettlementonsecurityareapressingpriority.
Somethingshavetobedoneinparallel.IagreewithMrPoroshenkothattheOSCEmissionhastobe
reinforcedtothepointofauthorizingOSCEobserverstocarryfirearms.Otherthingscanbedonetoimprove
security.Butwecannotaffordtocontinueputtingoffkeypoliticaldecisionbycitingthelackofsecurity

inthearea.Thatsit.(Applause.)
FareedZakaria:Therearesomanyareastocoverwithyou,MrPresident,soletmegototheMiddle
East,whereRussiahashadaforcefulinterventiontobolstertheAssadregime.PresidentAssadnowsays
thathisgoalistotakebackeverysquareinchofhisterritory.DoyoubelievethatthesolutioninSyriais
thattheAssadregimeshouldtakebackandgoverneverysquareinchofSyria?
VladimirPutin:IthinkthattheproblemsofSyria,ofcourse,concernprimarilytheanti-terroriststruggle,
butthereismoretoit.ItgoeswithoutsayingthattheSyrianconflictisrootedincontradictionswithin
Syriansociety,andPresidentBasharal-Assadunderstandsthisverywell.Thetaskisnotjusttoexpand
controlovervariousterritories,althoughthisisveryimportant.Thepointistoensuretheconfidence
oftheentiresocietyandtrustbetweendifferentpartsofthissociety,andtoestablishonthisfoundation
amodernandefficientgovernmentthatwillbetrustedbythecountrysentirepopulation.Andpolitical
negotiationsaretheonlyroadtothis.Wehaveurgedthismorethanonce.Presidental-Assadalsospoke
aboutthisheacceptsthisprocess.
Whatneedstobedonetoday?ItisnecessarytojoinmoreactivelytheprocessofformingthenewConstitution
andtoconduct,onthisbasis,futureelections,bothpresidentialandparliamentary.WhenPresidental-Assad

wasinMoscow,wespokeaboutthiswithhimandhefullyagreedwiththis.Moreover,itisextremelyimportant
toconducttheelectionsunderstrictinternationalcontrol,withtheparticipationoftheUnitedNations.

YesterdaywediscussedthisissueindetailwithMrdeMisturaandtheUNSecretary-General.Theyallagree
withthis,butweneedaction.Wehopeverymuchthatourpartners,primarilyfromtheUnitedStates,willwork

withtheiralliesthatsupporttheoppositiontoencourageconstructivecooperationwiththeSyrianauthorities.
Whatdowemeanbythis?Ingeneral,whenIaskmycolleagues:Whyareyoudoingthis?theyreply:

Toasserttheprinciplesofdemocracy.Presidental-Assadsregimeisnotdemocraticandthetriumph
ofdemocracymustbeensured.Fine.Isdemocracyeverywherethere?No,notyetbutdemocracyshould

existinSyria.Ok.Andhowdoyoumakesocietydemocratic?Isitonlypossibletoachievethisbyforce
ofarmsorsimplybyforce?No,thismaybedoneonlywiththehelpofdemocraticinstitutions

andprocedures.Andwhataretheyallabout?Thereisnomoredemocraticwayofformingagovernmentthan
electionsonthebasisoffundamentallaw:aConstitutionthatisformulatedinaclearway,thatistransparent

andacceptedbytheoverwhelmingmajorityofsociety.PasstheConstitutionandholdelectionsonitsbasis.
Whatsbadaboutthis,especiallyiftheyareheldunderinternationalcontrol?

Occasionallywehearthatsomecountriesoftheregiondonotfullyunderstandwhatdemocracyis.Dowe
wanttoreplaceoneundemocraticregimewithanotherundemocraticone?Andifwestillwanttopromote

theprincipleofdemocracyletsdothisbydemocraticmeans.Butconsideringthisisacomplicatedprocess
andresultswillnotcometomorroworthedayaftertomorrowbutwillrequiretime,whilewestillneedtodo

somethingtoday,Iagreewiththeproposalsofourpartners,primarilyourAmericanpartnersthatsuggest
(Idontknow,maybeImsayingtoomuchalthough,ontheotherhand,thisUSproposalisknownintheregion,

andthenegotiatorsofbothsidesthegovernmentandtheoppositionarefamiliarwithitandIconsiderit
absolutelyacceptable),theysuggestedconsideringthepossibilityofbringingrepresentativesoftheopposition

intoexistingpowerstructures,forinstance,theGovernment.Itisnecessarytothinkaboutwhatpowersthis
Governmentwillhave.

However,itisimportantnottogotoofar.Itisnecessarytoproceedfromthecurrentrealitiesandtorefrainfrom
declaringunfeasible,unrealisticgoals.ManyofourpartnersaresayingthatAssadshouldgo.Todaytheyare

sayingno,letsrestructuregoverninginstitutionsinsuchandsuchaway,butinpracticaltermsitwillalso
meanhisdeparture.Butthisisalsounrealistic.Therefore,itisnecessarytoactcarefully,stepbystep,

graduallywinningtheconfidenceofallsidestotheconflict.
Ifthishappens,andIthinkthiswillhappeninanyeventandthesoonerthebetter,itwillbepossibletogo

furtherandspeakbothaboutsubsequentelectionsandafinalsettlement.Themainpointistoprevent
thecountryscollapse.Andifthingscontinuetogoastheyaretoday,collapsewillbecomeinevitable.Andthis
istheworst-casescenariobecausewecannotassumethatafterthecountryscollapsesomequasi-state

formationswillco-existinpeaceandharmony.No,thiswillbeadestabilisingfactorfortheregionandtherest
oftheworld.

FareedZakaria:Letmeaskyou,MrPresident,aboutanotherdemocracythatishavingaverydifferent
kindofdrama.YoumadesomecommentsabouttheAmericanRepublicanpresumptivenominee,Donald
Trump.Youcalledhimbrilliant,outstanding,talented.Thesecommentswerereportedaroundtheworld.
Iwaswondering,whatinhimledyoutothatjudgement,anddoyoustillholdthatjudgement?
VladimirPutin:Youarewellknowninourcountry,youpersonally.NotonlyasahostofamajorTV
corporation,butalsoasanintellectual.Whyareyoudistortingeverything?Thejournalistinyouisgetting
thebetteroftheanalyst.Look,whatdidIsay?IsaidinpassingthatTrumpisavividpersonality.Ishenot?
Heis.Ididnotascribeanyothercharacteristicstohim.However,whatIdefinitelynoteandwhat
IdefinitelywelcomeandIseenothingwrongaboutthis,justtheoppositeisthatMrTrumpsaidthathe
isreadyforthefull-scalerestorationofRussian-USrelations.Whatiswrongwiththat?Weallwelcome
this!Dontyou?
Weneverinterfereintheinternalpoliticsofothercountries,especiallytheUnitedStates.However,wewillwork

withanypresidentthattheUSpeoplevotefor.AlthoughIdonotthink,bytheway,thatWell,theylecture
everyoneonhowtoliveandondemocracy.Now,doyoureallythinkpresidentialelectionsthereare

democratic?Look,twiceinUShistoryapresidentwaselectedbyamajorityofelectors,butstandingbehind
thoseelectorswasasmallernumberofvoters.Isthatdemocracy?Andwhen(sometimeswehavedebates

withourcolleaguesweneveraccuseanyoneofanything,wesimplyhavedebates)wearetold:Donot
meddleinouraffairs.Mindyourownbusiness.Thisishowwedothings,wefeellikesaying:Wellthen,do

notmeddleinouraffairs.Whydoyou?Putyourownhouseinorderfirst.
But,toreiterate,indeed,thisisnoneofourbusinessalthough,inmyopinion,evenprosecutorstherechase

internationalobserversawayfrompollingstationsduringelectioncampaigns.USprosecutorsthreatentojail
them.However,thesearetheirownproblemsthisishowtheydothingsandtheylikeit.Americaisagreat

power,todayperhapstheonlysuperpower.Weacceptthis.WewanttoworkwiththeUnitedStatesandwe
arepreparedto.Nomatterhowtheseelectionsgo,eventuallytheywilltakeplace.Therewillbea[new]head

ofstatewithextensivepowers.Therearecomplicatedinternalpoliticalandeconomicprocessesatwork
intheUnitedStates.TheworldneedsapowerfulcountryliketheUnitedStates,andwealsoneedit.Butwe

donotneedittocontinuouslyinterfereinouraffairs,tellingushowtolive,andpreventingEuropefrombuilding
arelationshipwithus.

HowarethesanctionsthatyouhavementionedaffectingtheUnitedStates?Innowaywhatsoever.Itcouldnot
carelessaboutthesesanctionsbecausetheconsequencesofouractionsinresponsehavenoimpactonit.

TheyimpactEuropebutnottheUnitedStates.Zeroeffect.However,theAmericansaretellingtheirpartners:
Bepatient.Whyshouldthey?Idonotunderstand.Iftheywantto,letthem.
Wedonotlavishpraiseonanybody.Itsnoneofourbusiness.AsGermanssay,thisisnotourbeer.
Becausewhentheymaketheirchoice,wewillworkwithanypresidentwhohasreceivedthesupport
oftheAmericanpeople,inthehopethatitwillbeapersonwhoseekstodeveloprelationswithourcountry

andhelpbuildamoresecureworld.
FareedZakaria:Justtobeclear,MrPresident,thewordbrilliantwasintheInterfaxtranslation,Irealize
thatothertranslationsmightsaybright,butIusedtheofficialInterfaxtranslation.Butletmeaskyou
aboutanotherpersonyouhavedealtwithagreatdeal.MrTrump,you'venevermet.HillaryClintonwas
SecretaryofState.InyourverylongquestionsandanswerswiththeRussianpeople,youmadeajoke
whensomebodyaskedyouaboutheryousaid,IthinkthattheRussiaidiomis,thehusbandandwifeis
thesamedevil.AndwhatitmeansintheEnglishversionis,it'stwosidesofthesamecoin.Whatdidyou
meanbythat,andhowdidshedoasSecretaryofState?Youdealtwithherextensively.
VladimirPutin:Ididnotworkwithher,Lavrovdid.Askhim.Heissittinghere.
Iwasnotaforeignminister,butSergeiLavrovwas.Hewillsoontie[SovietForeignMinisterAndrei]Gromyko.

(AddressingSergeiLavrov.)Howlonghaveyoubeeninoffice?
IworkedwithBillClinton,althoughforaveryshorttime,andwehadaverygoodrelationship.Icanevensay

thatIamgratefultohimforcertainmomentsasIwasenteringthebigstageinpolitics.Onseveraloccasions,
heshowedsignsofattention,respectformepersonally,aswellasforRussia.IrememberthisandIam

gratefultohim.
AboutMsClinton.PerhapsshehasherownviewonthedevelopmentofRussian-USrelations.Youknow,there

issomethingIwouldliketodraw[your]attentionto,whichhasnothingtodowithRussian-USrelationsorwith
nationalpolitics.Itisrelated,rather,topersonnelpolicy.

Inmyexperience,Ihaveoftenseenwhathappenswithpeoplebeforetheytakeonacertainjobandafterward.
Often,youcannotrecognisethem,becauseoncetheyreachanewlevelofresponsibilitytheybegintotalk

andthinkdifferently,theyevenlookdifferent.Weactontheassumptionthatthesenseofresponsibility
oftheUSheadofstate,theheadofthecountryonwhichagreatdealintheworlddependstoday,thatthis

senseofresponsibilitywillencouragethenewlyelectedpresidenttocooperatewithRussiaand,Iwouldlike
torepeat,buildamoresecureworld.

FareedZakaria:PresidentPutin,letmefinallyaskyouonequestionaboutnewsreportsaboutRussian
athletes.TherearenowtwomajorinvestigationsthathaveshownthatRussianathleteshaveengaged
indopingonamassivescale,andthattherehasbeenasystematicevasionanddoctoringoftestingandlab
samples.AndIwasjustwonderingwhatyoureactiontothesereportsis.
VladimirPutin:Ididnotunderstandwhatkindofprogrammeitistotamperwiththesamplesthatwere
collectedfortests?Ifsamplesarecollectedtheyareimmediatelytransferredtointernationalorganisations
forstorageandwehavenothingtodowiththem.Samplesarecollectedandtakensomewhere,
toLausanneorwherever,Idonotknowwhere,buttheyarenotonRussianterritory.Theycanbe
opened,re-checked,andthisiswhatspecialistsaredoingnow.
DopingisnotonlyaRussianproblem.Itisaproblemoftheentiresportsworld.Ifsomebodytriestopoliticise

somethinginthissphere,Ithinkthisisabigmistake,becausejustlikeculture,forexample,sportcannotbe

politicised.Thesearethebridgesthatbringpeople,nationsandstatesclosertogether.Thisistheway

toapproachit,nottrytoforgesomeanti-Russianoranti-whateverpolicyonthisbasis.

AsfortheRussianauthorities,Icanassureyou,wearecategoricallyagainstalldopingforseveralreasons.

First,asaformeramateurathlete,Icantellyou,andIthinkthattheoverwhelmingmajorityofpeoplewillagree

withthis:ifweknowthereisdoping,itsnotinterestingtowatchtheeventmillionsoffansloseinterest

inthesport.
Second,nolessimportant,andmaybeevenmostimportant,thereisthehealthoftheathletesthemselves.

Youcantjustifyanythingthatdamageshealth.Thisiswhywehavecombatedandwillcontinuetocombat

dopinginsportonthenationallevel.

Furthermore,asfarasIknow,theProsecutorGeneralsOfficeandtheInvestigativeCommitteehavebeen

closelylookingintoallfactsreportedinthemedia,amongothers.Simply,thismustnotbeturnedinto

acampaign,especiallyacampaigndisparagingsport,includingRussiansport.

Next,thethirdpointIwouldliketomake.Thereisalegalconceptthatsaysresponsibilitycanonlybe

individual.Collectiveresponsibilitycannotbeimposedonallathletesorathletesofacertainsportsfederationif

certainindividualshavebeencaughtdoping.Anentireteamcannotbeheldresponsibleforthosewhohave
committedthisviolation.Ibelievethatthisisanabsolutelynatural,correctapproach.

However,dopingisnottheonlyproblemtoday.Thereareplentyofproblemsinsport.Euro2016isunderway.

Ibelievethatlessattentionisbeingpaidtofootballthantobrawlingbetweenfans.ThisisverysadandIregret

this,butheretooweshouldalwaysproceedfromsomegeneralcriteria.Toreiterate,responsibility

formisconductshouldbeindividualisedasmuchaspossibleandtheapproachtowardperpetratorsshouldbe

thesame.

Euro2016beganwithahigh-profilecase:afightbetweenRussianandBritishfans.Thisisabsolutely

outrageous.Granted,Idonotknowhow200RussianfanswereabletopummelseveralthousandBritons.Ido

notunderstand.Butinanycase,lawenforcementagenciesshouldtakethesameapproachtowardall

perpetrators.

Thisisthewaywehaveorganisedthisworkandwillcontinuetocombatdopingandenforcedisciplineamong

fans.Wewillworkwiththesefanassociations.Iverymuchhopethatthereareplentyofintelligent,sensible

peopleamongthefans,whoreallylovesportandwhounderstandthatviolationsdonothingtosupporttheir

teambut,onthecontrary,causedamagetotheteamandtosport.However,agreatdealhasyettobedone

here,includinginconjunctionwithour[foreign]colleagues.

Iwouldliketostressthattherehasbeenabsolutelynosupportandcanbeabsolutelynosupportforviolations

insport,letalonedopingviolations,atthestatelevel.Wehaveworkedandwillcontinuetoworkwithall

internationalorganisationsinthissphere.

<>

StanovayaontheEconomicForumandforeignbusiness

http://slon.ru/posts/69481

ThisisthefirstSt.PetersburgforumnotshunnedbyWesternpoliticalelitesinacoupleofyearsRussiawantstoshowWestern
businessthattherearepossibilitiesforreformThesanctionshavenotbeenremoved,theMinskagreementsnotfulfilled,butthere
hasbeenacertainloweringoftensionsTheKremliniscautiouslyrehabilitatingthesystemicliberalsKudrinhasinformalstatus
asthemainreformer,withassistancefromGrefVlast,notveryconvincingly,ismakingnoisesaboutimprovingconditionsfor
privatebusinessGestureshavebeenmadetoeasetensionswiththeWestSavchenko,forexample,wasreleasedtheresa
certainwearinesswithconfrontationTherehasbeensomemovementawayfromtheconservativetrenddomestically
Pavlenskiyhasbeenreleased(http://www.rferl.org/content/russia-pavlensky-artist-fined-cultural-site-fsb/27786266.html)...The
messagetoWesterninvestorsisclearRussiadoesnotwanttobeNorthKoreaorevenBelarusRussianeedsdirectinvestment
andbudgetproblemsarepushingvlasttowardmakingapoliticaldecisiononstructuralreforms
ThewearinessofbothRussiaandtheWestwithsanctionsinthemid-termcouldatleastleadtotheirweakening.Thedeclineofthe
economyhassloweddownandsomeoptimistsexpectgrowthbytheendoftheyearTheUkrainecrisiscouldberoutinized,
pushedtothebackburnerinfavorofcooperatingoncombattingterrorismPutinwantstolowertensionswiththeAmericans

Yetthearbitrarybehaviorofcourts,taxterrorism,corruption,andnightmaringbusinesseshaveonlybecomeworseAverage
investorswithoutspecialconnectionsarewaitingforasignofvlastsintensionsandofamoretransparenteconomicpolicyIts
doubtfulthatwillhappenandforeignbusinesssurelyunderstandsthatForeigninvestorswanttoknowaboutconcrete
economicdevelopmentplans,taxpolicy,aboutwhetherGlazyevistakenseriouslyandwhetherKudrinisaroundjustforwindow
dressing.Arethesilovikytakingpartindiscussionsoneconomicpolicytemporarilyoristheyheretostay?

Putinwantstheeconomytoimprove,butwithoutchanginganythinginstitutionallyThewaytohaveinfluenceinRussiais
througharelationshipwithoneofPutinsfriends,whooftenhavemoreinfluencethanministers.Soinvestorswanttoknowwhata
particularpersonsaccesstoPutinreallyis,whatkindofinfluenceapersonmighthaveonaministerAndinvestorsseeasociety
thatisdistrustful,evenhatefultowardtheWest,onewhereoppositionpoliticalfiguresareindanger,whereonehastobewaryof
provocationsbycompetitorsAndtheYukoscase,theMagnitskiyaffair,andthecaseagainsttheownersandmanagersof
Domodedovoairportarestillverymuchonthemindsofforeigninvestors

InRussia,ifyoumoveoneway,youloseyourbusiness,anotherandyouloseyourlife.Ifyoumovejustright,youcanbecomea
billionaire

SoloveyongesturestoAmerica

http://vk.com/id244477574?w=wall244477574_18809/all

RussiasconciliatorygesturestoAmericaarebeingmadefortworeasons:One,becauseitistheAmericansblockingEuropean
revisionismregardingRussiaandtwo,becauseMoscowisworriedaboutreputationalscandalstheremaybemoretocome,
provokingaspiltintheRussianelite

GermanforeignministeronNATOwarmongering

HTTP://WWW.YAHOO.COM/NEWS/GERMANY-SLAMS-NATO-WARMONGERING-RUSSIA-115515814.HTML?REF=GS

GermanForeignMinisterFrank-WalterSteinmeierhascriticisedNATOforhavingabellicosepolicytowardsRussia,describingitas
"warmongering",theGermandailyBildreported.

SteinmeierpointedtothedeploymentofNATOtroopsnearborderswithRussiainthemilitaryalliance'sBalticandeastEuropean
memberstates.

"Whatweshouldavoidtodayisinflamingthesituationbywarmongeringandstompingboots,"SteinmeiertoldBildinaninterviewto
bepublishedSunday.

"Anyonewhothinksyoucanincreasesecurityinthealliancewithsymbolicparadesoftanksneartheeasternborders,ismistaken,"
Germany'stopdiplomatadded.
NATOhadannouncedonMondaythatitwoulddeployfourbattalionstoEstonia,Latvia,LithuaniaandPolandtocounteramore
assertiveRussia,aheadofalandmarksummitinWarsawnextmonth.

AllfourcountrieswereonceruledfromMoscowandremaindeeplysuspiciousofRussianintentions,especiallyafterRussia's
annexationofCrimeafromUkrainein2014.

InaninterviewwithBildonThursday,NATOchiefJensStoltenbergsaidRussiaisseekingtocreate"azoneofinfluencethrough
militarymeans".

"WeareobservingmassivemilitarisationatNATOborders--intheArctic,intheBaltic,fromtheBlackSeatotheMediterranean
Sea,"hetoldthenewspaper.

StoltenberghasstressedthatNATOdoesnotseekconfrontationwithRussiaandwantsaconstructivedialoguebutthatitwould
defendthe28alliesagainstanythreat

RussiabitterlyopposesNATO'sexpansionintoitsSoviet-erasatellitesandlastmonthsaiditwouldcreatethreenewdivisionsinits
southwestregiontomeetwhatitdescribedasadangerousmilitarybuild-upalongitsborders.

From: RobertOtto<robertotto25@gmail.com>
Senttime: 06/17/201611:24:14PM
To: RobertOtto<OttoRC@state.gov>
BCc: swallen@1scom.netchris.bort@gmail.comnaterey80@gmail.comdonald.jensen8@gmail.com
PutinatStPForum(economic&geopoliticalcrisesconnectednotofortressRussia(technology)?EESChina&BigEurasianewgrowth?SME
Subject: Siloviki&criminalresponsibility(asubtlething)newapproachesMedvedevCouncilsanctions/coldwarMDOPKcoupinUkraineNATO
MinskAsadTrump&Clinton

http://www.kremlin.ru/events/president/news/52178

172016 16:20 -

00:00/00:00
XX

***

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