QUBEC JULY 2017

EMBARGOED UNTIL:
6 AM EST, JULY 20, 2017
PRINT EXCLUSIVE:
POSTMEDIA NETWORK
Methodology
Mainstreet surveyed a stratied random sample of
1,601 Qubec residents from July 13-15, 2017
through live interviews. Landline and cell lines
were included. Responses were weighted using
demographic information to targets based on the
2011 census.
The margin of error for survey results is 2.45
percentage points, 19 times out of 20. The margin
of error is greater for sub samples.
Caution: Social Desirability Bias is common when
posing questions about past voting behaviour.
Respondents may not admit to behavour that they
believe will paint them in a negative light, as a
result they may claim to have voted even when
they know they did not.
About Mainstreet
With 20 years of political experience at all three
levels of government, President and CEO Quito
Maggi is a respected commentator on Canadian
public aairs.
Dierentiated by its large sample sizes, Mainstreet
Research has provided accurate snapshots of
public opinion, having predicted a majority NDP
government in Alberta, a majority Liberal
government in British Columbia and a majority
Liberal government in Ontario. Mainstreet has
been the most accurate polling rm in several by
elections and the most recent Toronto mayoral
election. Most recently, Mainstreet Research was
the only polling rm to correctly predict a Liberal
majority government in the 2015 federal election.
Contact Information
In Ottawa: Quito Maggi, President
quito@mainstreetresearch.ca
In Montral: David Valentin, Executive Vice
President. david@mainstreetresearch.ca
In Toronto: Dr. Joseph Angolano, Vice President
joseph@mainstreetresearch.ca
Find us online at:
www.mainstreetresearch.ca
twitter.com/MainStResearch
facebook.com/mainstreetresearch
LIBERALS CONTINUE TO LEAD BUT FACE CHALLENGES AMONG NON-FRANCOPHONES

July 20, 2017 (Montral, QC) A new Mainstreet/Postmedia poll produced for the Montral Gazette nds
the Liberals continue to lead but continue to face challenges among non-francophone voters - and one
reason why could be the governments handling of MUHC. The Mainstreet/Postmedia poll has a margin of
error of +/- 2.45 percentage points, 19 times out of 20.

Its steady as she goes for the Liberals, though the regional composition of their support has shifted
slightly compared to last month said David Valentin, Executive Vice-President of Mainstreet Research. In
second place, once again, is the Coalition Avenir Qubec (CAQ) with the Parti Qubecois and Qubec
Solidaire further behind in a ght for third.

The results for the PQ and QS are essentially the same as last month, while QS is up one point, and the PQ
is down one point, these numbers and shifts are well within the margin of error of the survey.

Among non-francophones were continuing to see challenges for the Liberals. This is a group where we
expect them to dominate but instead the CAQ is at 24% among non-Francophones this month, the second
straight month that they have registered in the low twenties.

Part of the challenge for the Liberals among non-francophones is their handling of MUHC in recent
months. 64% of non-francophones in greater Montral say they have been following the developments at
MUHC closely, 67% say care at MUHC has gotten worse, 55% disapprove of Health Minister Gatan Barettes
handling of MUHC and 54% lay the blame for problems on budget cuts - these are all numbers that should
be deeply troubling for the Liberals.

This month we asked voters how they voted in 2014 and compared the results to their current voting
intentions. Overall, the CAQ has done the best at hanging on to its previous supporters with 93% of CAQ
voters from 2014 saying they would vote for the party again. It is followed closely by supporters of QS (89%
retention), the Liberals (74% retention) and nally the PQ (67% retention). 20% of former Liberal voters are
currently planning to vote for the CAQ, while 21% of former PQ voters are intending to vote for QS.

As always, its the trend lines that are the most important, well be watching to see if new trends emerge
or if the numbers take a dierent direction later this summer and into the fall, nished Valentin.

Among Decided & Leaning Voters: QLP 33% (-), CAQ 28 (+1), PQ 21 (-1), QS 19 (+1)

-30-

For additional information or to arrange an interview, contact:

David Valentin, Executive Vice-President, david@mainstreetresearch.ca

 Decided & Leaning Voters

Steady in July
July numbers for all parties are relatively steady as we
continue to see trends in key demographics.

Among non-francophones, the CAQ has maintained

double digit support among decided & leaning voters.

Among the youngest voters, those 18-34, Qubec

Solidaire is once again out in front, albeit more
narrowly than last month.

This month weve seen a pronounced shift in support

among gender categories, with the Liberals now
performing notably better with female voters compares
to male voters (and vice-versa for the CAQ). Time will
tell if this is the beginning of a trend or merely
statistical noise.

Once again the Parti Qubecois does not lead in any

demographic group.
All Voters
 2014 Vote Breakout

74% of Liberal voters from 2014 would vote Liberal today. 21% of PQ Voters from 2014 would vote for
Qubec Solidaire if an election were held today