Академический Документы
Профессиональный Документы
Культура Документы
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
Course leader
William Gibson
Senior Consultant, Euresas
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
Human Performance Factors Bruno Kahne, Fleet Planning: Setting the Scene Professor Paul
Change Management Senior Getting Organised Clark, Managing
Consultant, Assumptions Director, Euresas
Euresas
A/C performances & comparison
Route and Network Design Arturo Benito, Revenue Management Jol Lunot
Scheduling and Hubs Director Fleet Distribution Channels Air France
Planning, Iberia Airline Economics Consulting
1
EU-ASIA CIVIL AVIATION PROJECT
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
William Gibson
Senior Consultant, Euresas
2
EU-ASIA CIVIL AVIATION PROJECT
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
60
50
40
financing gap
30
20
10
0
1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001e 2003f 2005f 2007f 2009f
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
A10- Current 35 (Sales & Market Shares) S AM 1-32 Top Level Airline Management Seminar
3
EU-ASIA CIVIL AVIATION PROJECT
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
A10- Current 35 (Sales & Market Shares) S AM 1-32 Top Level Airline Management Seminar
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
In 2003
Focus shifts to Asia
20.00%
Freight held up
10.00% better
0.00%
Traffic
-10.00% RPK change
Capacity
-20.00%
Airlines learning to ASK change
-30.00% reduce capacity Freight
quickly FTK change
-40.00%
and traffic is
-50.00%
returning
-60.00%
Jan-03 Feb-03 Mar-03 Apr-03 May-03 Jun-03
4
EU-ASIA CIVIL AVIATION PROJECT
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
In 2003
Focus shifts to Asia
2Q 02-03 2Q 02-03
Change in Revenue Operating profit margins
ANA SIA MAS Thai KAL* CX* JAL ANA SIA MAS Thai KAL* CX*
10.00% 15.00%
0.00% 5.00%
-10.00% -5.00%
-20.00%
-15.00%
-30.00%
-25.00%
-40.00%
2002 2003
Bangkok - March 2004 Page: 10
Source: Airline Business
S AM 1-32 Top Level Airline Management Seminar
* KAL and CX are first half 2003
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
2Q 02-03 2Q 02-03
Change in Revenue Operating profit margins
e
a
B anc
SA ns
e
Ib ir
ia
S sa
ha
A a nc
Fr
ia
al
LM
nn
S
SA an
ft
er
lit
Ib air
ia
A
ir
Lu
K a
Fi
r
A
fth
al
F
LM
nn
i
er
15.00%
lit
ir
Lu
Fi
A
B
0.00%
5.00%
-10.00% -5.00%
-15.00%
-20.00% 2002 2003
Bangkok - March 2004 Page: 11
5
EU-ASIA CIVIL AVIATION PROJECT
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
Remember this?
12% operating margin is often seen as the target
North Am erica Europe Asia-Pacific Average all
10
Operating m argin (%)
8
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
92/93
93/94
94/95
95/96
96/97
97/98
98/99
99/00
00/01
01/02
02/03
From Airline Business Dec 02 for sample of 50 airlines
Bangkok - March 2004 Page: 12
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
4.0%
2.0%
0.0%
-2.0%
-4.0%
-6.0%
1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002
Operating margin 0.12% 1.91% 4.45% 5.68% 4.96% 6.92% 6.45% 5.22% 3.95% -1.78% -0.13%
Net profit margin -3.56% -0.55% -0.07% 0.63% 1.93% 3.10% 3.01% 3.09% 1.01% -3.93% -2.76%
Air France net -5% 2.70% 3.40% 3.40% 1.20% 0.90%
Profit margin is calculated as Profit divided
Bangkokby Revenue
- March 2004 Page: 13
6
EU-ASIA CIVIL AVIATION PROJECT
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
With the Paris-Charles de Gaulle 2 hub, opened in 1996, Air France has a
valuable asset to ensure its development in the coming years.
The Paris hub enables Air France to attract medium-haul/long-haul connecting
traffic via Paris. The flights are organized into 6 connecting banks (or timespans),
each of which consists of a wave of flight arrivals and departures. The Paris hub is
the most efficient in Europe today, providing the largest number of connections
within a two-hour timespan.
The location of the TGV (high-speed train) station in the air terminal is an added
asset for connecting passengers. Paris-Charles de Gaulle 2 is the only airport in
the world providing both [local and trans-european high-speed] rail links.
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
7
EU-ASIA CIVIL AVIATION PROJECT
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
75.00%
70.00%
65.00%
60.00%
Europe North South Middle Africa Asia Overall BELF
Page: 17
America AmericaBangkokEast
- March 2004
8
EU-ASIA CIVIL AVIATION PROJECT
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
0.20
0.15
0.10
0.05
0.00
Europe North South Middle Africa Asia Overall
America America East
Bangkok - March 2004 Page: 18
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
9
EU-ASIA CIVIL AVIATION PROJECT
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
British Airways
Cash 8% Current liabilities 25%
Debtors 10%
Stocks 1%
Key measure
Property & equipment 76% Long-term debt 50% 67% Long Term
Investments 5% Equity 25% 33% Debt Ratio
Totals 100% 100%
Total assets (m) $22,181
10
EU-ASIA CIVIL AVIATION PROJECT
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
11
EU-ASIA CIVIL AVIATION PROJECT
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
LAN Chile
The order
12
EU-ASIA CIVIL AVIATION PROJECT
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
LAN Chile
The order
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
LAN Chile
Questions
1. What are the current sources of financing for the airline
business?
2. Does the company's financial condition justify long-term
financing?
3. Given the current environment, how might the financing be
structured?
4. What is the overall profitability of the project, and what are
the sensitivities?
5. How do the dynamics differ between an airline and an
operating lessor?
Bangkok - March 2004 Page: 27
13
EU-ASIA CIVIL AVIATION PROJECT
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
LAN Chile
The airline
LAN Chile was founded as a national flag carrier in
1929, entirely financed and managed by the
government. Sixty years later, in 1989, the airline was
privatised, and embarked on a 10-year push to
expand and modernise the company through
acquisitions, fleet standardisation, and most recently,
a marketing alliance with a major North American
carrier.
Bangkok - March 2004 Page: 28
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
LAN Chile
The airline
Like many flag carriers, the companys profit base
came from dominance of its domestic market, where
it held a 75% share of all passenger traffic. From this
base, the company was forming international
alliances which were expected to boost demand and
market share above the current 37%. To respond to
this increased demand, the company planned to
increase flight frequency on profitable routes, rather
than seeking new destinations.
Bangkok - March 2004 Page: 29
14
EU-ASIA CIVIL AVIATION PROJECT
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
LAN Chile
Fleet composition
Average
Average age of
Aircraft type Operating leased Total in fleet remaining lease
aircraft
term
B767-300ER 11 11 4.3 2.8
B737-200 13 13 2.8 16.8
B737-200 9 10 2.7 20.6
B737-200 (Cargo) 1 1 1.9 28
DC8-71 (Cargo) 5 5 .4 29.4
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
LAN Chile
Corporate finance
The greater resources generated by operations and
leverage.
Bangkok - March 2004 Page: 31
15
EU-ASIA CIVIL AVIATION PROJECT
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
LAN Chile
Corporate finance
The BBB+ rating obtained during the year has
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
LAN Chile
Equity financing
16
EU-ASIA CIVIL AVIATION PROJECT
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
LAN Chile
Equity financing
The ADR shares were originally issued at $14 per
economic crisis.
Bangkok - March 2004 Page: 34
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
17
EU-ASIA CIVIL AVIATION PROJECT
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
Recovery in 2000
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
August 2001
18
EU-ASIA CIVIL AVIATION PROJECT
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
and today
19
EU-ASIA CIVIL AVIATION PROJECT
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
LAN Chile
Debt financing
Historically, the great majority of LAN Chiles aircraft had
been operated under operating lease. In developing its
financial strategy, the company decided that more long-term
financing would benefit the company through lower overall
financing costs. Long-term financing was provided in nearly
equal shares by bank loans ($73.4m) and capital leases
($75.5m).
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
LAN Chile
Debt financing - loan pricing
Amount
Loan pricing
(thousands of US$)
Libor + 2% 5290
Libor + .75% 63211
Libor + .5% 1790
Inter-company loans 3112
Total 73403
20
EU-ASIA CIVIL AVIATION PROJECT
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
LAN Chile
Debt financing - loan maturities
Amount
Payment due
(thousands of US$)
1998 2821
1999 7424
2000 6845
2001 6101
2002 5355
2003-2007 26784
2008-2012 15803
2013 2270
73403
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
LAN Chile
Debt financing - leases
21
EU-ASIA CIVIL AVIATION PROJECT
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
LAN Chile
Developments in 1998
In spite of continued difficulties experienced by
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
LAN Chile
Developments in 1998
In March of 1999, the company announced 1998
results, including a profit of $31m for the year. In
analysing the company's results, management issued
the following statement. Although the first quarter was
strong, during the remainder of the year LAN Chile
faced intense competition on key routes and a difficult
economic environment.
22
EU-ASIA CIVIL AVIATION PROJECT
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
LAN Chile
Developments in 1998
.
Bangkok - March 2004 Page: 46
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
LAN Chile
Developments in 1998
Total operating revenue increase 11.1% Total operating
expense increase 16% while total system capacity as
measured by ATKs increased 19.4% This resulted in a
reduction of the operating margin from 8.2% to 4.2% for
the year.
Non-operating expense increased 98.7% mostly due to an
increase in interest expense associated with the purchase
of four new Boeing 767-300 aircraft.
Bangkok - March 2004 Page: 47
23
EU-ASIA CIVIL AVIATION PROJECT
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
LAN Chile
Cash 1.4% Current liabilities 40%
Debtors 32.7%
Prepaid exp. & tax 7.5%
Stocks 1.3%
Property & equipment 49.6% Long-term debt 23% 38%
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
24
EU-ASIA CIVIL AVIATION PROJECT
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
Jargon Watch!
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
Jargon-watch Exercise
Dear Sirs:
I am writing to confirm your purchase of 10 B737-800s, with escalation
terms and credit memos as discussed. I am sorry to say however that a
promissory note for advance payments will not be possible. Due to the
manufacturing lead-time and your need for immediate lift, our Asset
Management group has a 737 classic under a head lease, and could sub-
lease the aircraft to you under a dry or wet lease for the entire
manufacturing cycle. If you would like to discuss this possibility, please call
me directly.
Sincerely yours
Jeff Mayling
World Aircraft Company
25
EU-ASIA CIVIL AVIATION PROJECT
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
Jargon-watch Exercise
Dear Sirs:
We are delighted to inform you that we have approved the asset-based
financing you have applied for, an 80% LTV, mortgage-style loan with a
10% balloon carrying a spread of 175bp over Treasury. Drawdown will
take place at delivery, with all advance payments and BFE being your
responsibility. If you wish to lock in the current rate, we require a
commitment fee of 35bp, payable immediately.
Welcome aboard!
Sincerely yours,
Sharabia Zingalos
Credit Unlimited
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
Jargon-watch Exercise
Dear Sirs:
We have completed the appraisal of your A300-B4, and are delighted to
inform you that the fair market value of the asset significantly exceeds our
breakage costs on a net present value basis. We can unwind this
leveraged lease with a minimum of difficulty, although we need approval
from the Export Credit Agency authorities. Given the cross-border nature
of the deal and the syndicating institutions, the arrangements will take
some time. Please therefore continue paying the installments until you
hear from us again.
Sincerely yours,
Sharon Stone
International Finance Corporation
26
EU-ASIA CIVIL AVIATION PROJECT
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
Jargon-watch Exercise
Dear Sirs,
We have completed the analysis of your proposed SLB on an A340 to be
delivered in November. Due to documentation lead-times, the facility
probably wont fund before delivery. Should you required bridge financing,
a revolving credit facility can be made available at LIBOR+35bp. This
facility would be repayable bullet 6 months after the SLB funds.
Alternatively, the ABCP market could be tapped using ourselves as agents
and Morgan Paisley as bookrunner. Of course, Morgan Paisley would only
work on a best efforts basis. The commission on this type of commercial
paper would be around 225bp, payable out of proceeds.
Sincerely yours,
Will Rodgers
Brooks Brothers Aircraft Management
Bangkok - March 2004 Page: 57
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
27
EU-ASIA CIVIL AVIATION PROJECT
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
28
EU-ASIA CIVIL AVIATION PROJECT
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Payment
Bangkok - MarchPrincipal
2004 Interest Page: 63
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
60000
50000
40000
30000
20000
10000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
29
EU-ASIA CIVIL AVIATION PROJECT
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
30000
US$000
20000
10000
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Years from delivery
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Year from delivery
30
EU-ASIA CIVIL AVIATION PROJECT
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
8000
7000
6000
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Payment Principal
Bangkok - March 2004 Interest Page: 68
31
EU-ASIA CIVIL AVIATION PROJECT
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
32
EU-ASIA CIVIL AVIATION PROJECT
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
After-tax
Loan structures Payments Interest Tax shield
cash outlay
Constant-payment $78,884 $38,884 $13,609 $75,275
Constant-principal $72,000 $32,000 $11,200 $70,800
10% balloon $74,800 $34,800 $12,180 $72,620
Bullet financing
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
33
EU-ASIA CIVIL AVIATION PROJECT
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
Credit ratings
methodology
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
Rating scales
Quality Moody's S&P
Extremely strong Aaa AAA Investment grade:
Very strong Aa AA suitable for fund
Upper medium A A
Adequate Baa BBB
managers
Speculative Ba BB
Non-investment grade
Vulnerable B B OR
Poor Caa CCC
Highly speculative C C Junk
There are three notches for each
rating, 1, 2, and 3 from highest to
lowest
Bangkok - March 2004 Page: 74
34
EU-ASIA CIVIL AVIATION PROJECT
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
35
EU-ASIA CIVIL AVIATION PROJECT
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
9.00%
8.00%
7.00%
6.00%
5.688% 5.688% 5.813%
5.64%
5.00%
4.00%
3-month 6-month 1-year 2-year 3-year 5-year 10-year 30-year
Treasury LIBOR
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
Strong Euro?
The yield curve in 2003
6.00%
5.00%
4.00%
3.00%
2.50%
2.00%
1.620%
1.00%
Overnight 6-month 1-year 2-year 5-year 10-year 30-year
36
EU-ASIA CIVIL AVIATION PROJECT
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
Japan Airlines BB
Lufthansa Baa1
Northwest Airlines B N
Qantas Airways BB+ N
Scandinavian Baa3
Southwest Airlines A N
UAL Corp D
United Air Lines D N
US Airways Group D N
37
EU-ASIA CIVIL AVIATION PROJECT
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
Export Credit
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
Main characteristics
38
EU-ASIA CIVIL AVIATION PROJECT
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
Medium
Medium risk
risk Banks
Banks
airlines
airlines Export
Export credit
credit
High
High risk
risk Banks
Banks
airlines
airlines Operating
Operatingleases
leases
Bangkok - March 2004 Page: 88
39
EU-ASIA CIVIL AVIATION PROJECT
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
Agent
Optional:
Loan Commercial loan
85% Lenders
Title to the Aircraft
SPC
payment
Securities
Airbus
Lease
Purchase Agreement
Assignment and Manufacturer
Airline consent
Predelivery
Bangkok - March 2004 Page: 90
Payments >15%
S AM 1-32 Top Level Airline Management Seminar
40
EU-ASIA CIVIL AVIATION PROJECT
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
41
EU-ASIA CIVIL AVIATION PROJECT
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
Manufacturers role
Advise airline on financing possibilities
Bring together airlines, ECAs and potential financiers
Apply for Export Credit cover
Manage the rate-fixing process (LASU)
Co-ordinate the approval and delivery process
42
EU-ASIA CIVIL AVIATION PROJECT
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
43
EU-ASIA CIVIL AVIATION PROJECT
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
50,000
40,000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
Conclusions
Advantages for airlines
more attractive financing terms with ECA support
fixed interest rates available/covered
flexible enough to structure optimised tax & accounting
efficient structures
And disadvantages
Not available for everyone!
Business case and security requirements
Administrative lead-times and procedures
Relatively short repayment period
Bangkok - March 2004 Page: 98
44
EU-ASIA CIVIL AVIATION PROJECT
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
45
EU-ASIA CIVIL AVIATION PROJECT
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
46
EU-ASIA CIVIL AVIATION PROJECT
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
PRINT
DEVALUE
MONEY? CURRENCY?
HEAVY DEFICIT
CUT INTERESTSPENDING?
RATES? iFiscal solidarity?
iLabor mobility/flexibility?
Bangkok - March 2004 Page: 103
iInternational investment?
S AM 1-32 Top Level Airline Management Seminar
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
47
EU-ASIA CIVIL AVIATION PROJECT
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
U.S.
Tokyo
Germany
London
U.S.
EuroParis
area
Euro area
Toronto
Amsterdam Tokyo Share value, 1997
ShareShare
value,value,
1999 -2003+
2002
Other EU
Tokyo
London
Hong Kong
Italy
Stockholm
0 0 1000
2000 2000 3000
4000 4000 5000
6000 6000 8000
7000
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000
billion bn
billion
Bangkok - March 2004 Page: 105
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
Historical overview
Value of the US dollar
250
200
1971 = 1000
150
100
50
0
01/71 01/75 01/79 01/83 01/87 01/91 01/95 01/99
48
EU-ASIA CIVIL AVIATION PROJECT
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
Historical overview
Value of the French Franc
350
300
250
1971 = 100
200
150
100
50
0
01/71 01/75 01/79 01/83 01/87 01/91 01/95 01/99
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
49
EU-ASIA CIVIL AVIATION PROJECT
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
Currencies analysed
Americas Asia
Argentine peso Australian dollar
Brazilian real Hong Kong dollar
Canadian dollar Indian rupeeI
Indonesian rupiah
Chilean peso
Japanese yen
Mexican peso Malaysian ringgit
Europe Philippine peso
British pound Singapore dollar
Czech koruna Taiwan dollar
Danish kroner Thai baht
Norwegian Kroner
Swedish Krona
Swiss franc
Bangkok - March 2004 Page: 109
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
95
90
85
80
75
70
Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04
50
EU-ASIA CIVIL AVIATION PROJECT
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
190
170
150
130
110
90
70
Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
130
Jan 1, 1999 = 100
120
110
100
90
80
70
Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04
Bangkok - March 2004 Page: 112
USD Euro
S AM 1-32 Top Level Airline Management Seminar
51
EU-ASIA CIVIL AVIATION PROJECT
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
120
Jan 1, 1999 = 100
110
100
90
80
70
Jan-99 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-02 Jan-03 Jul-03 Jan-04
USD
Bangkok - March 2004
Euro Page: 113
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
52
EU-ASIA CIVIL AVIATION PROJECT
A project supported by the European Commission, the European Industry and the Ministries responsible for Civil Aviation in Asia.
Thank you
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