Why the census threatens the political

status quo in Pakistan

Politics in Pakistan primarily depends on tricky demographical numbers

April 02, 2016, 1:51 pm/ 2 Comments

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The state of Pakistan is devoid of any accurate estimation of its population. The last census was
held in 1988. Since then there are mere estimates. For the last eighteen years the state system is
deprived of the exact number of its citizens. Census is the procedure of systematically acquiring
and recording information about the members of a given population. It is a regularly occurring and
official count of population. For centuries this is the system implemented to have the details
regarding the population. Without this detail how is it possible to govern people?

Pakistans census is victim of delays for the last eight years. Constitutionally the state is bound to
conduct census after every ten years. This government had taken this decision to hold census in
March 2016. But it again fell to hiccups. The last meeting of Council of Common Interests
(Constitutional body for coordination of provinces), which was held in February 2015, could not
convene another meeting until last week of February 2016 which was only held to delay the
scheduled census for another year.

The major hindrances in way of census are formally reported to be objections of provinces over
proper coordination and lack of military to smoothly conduct the census. But there seems to be
visible reluctance on part of the center to resolve all these issues. The census doesnt seem to be
the priority of any political party in Pakistan or any provincial government too.

A census is followed by various changes as it defines the demography. Pakistans demographic and
social landscape seems to have transformed a lot. Rapid urbanization has been a marked feature
of Pakistans demographical transformation over the last two decades. The lack of interest of a
democratically elected government rings alarm bells. Pakistans security and economic conditions
require an accurate estimation of population and their settlements in particular. Political backdrop of
Pakistan necessarily depends on the demography. Can any change in demographic facts cause
upheaval in political status quo? Are the political forces wary of any such change?

Reluctance of central government and provincial governments increases such fears manifold.
Pakistan is currently on the verge of various conflicts. The underlined feature of many of these
conflicts is ethnicity. Ethnic differences in Karachi and Baluchistan are major causes of these
conflicts. But various political parties also have some ethnic ground to play politics upon. Politics in
Pakistan depends on castes and ethnic groups. This is no longer hidden now. Only if the case of
Karachi is examined, the primary conflicts are based on issues ingrained in parties claiming support
from people belonging to particular linguistic and racial groups. Karachi has become the fifth most
populous city of the world. Over this period of rapid, irregular and unplanned urbanization
demographic dynamics might have changed grossly. A city where an operation against militant
wings is underway, where Rangers have had special powers, where the largest urban conflict of
Pakistan is still ongoing, can a long term post operation policy can be chalked out without the
demographic details and accurate figures?

The 2013 elections have plausibly divided the political landscape of Pakistan according to ethnic
divisions. Representation in all provinces has gone to political parties ingrained only in those areas
pursuing regional and ethnic politics. Since urbanization has increased manifold in Pakistan during
last two decades, the parties which conduct politics in rural areas and remote towns will face a
setback. Urbanization has also changed the proportional balance of the cities, which will eventually
change the political subtleties in the cities with fresh appraisal of population information.

National Finance Commission Award has always been a point of dispute among provinces. There
are often disputes on the platform of IRSA on water distribution among provinces. The claims are
on the basis of changing requirements concomitant to transforming demographics. But at national
level since no exact estimation exists, these formulae cannot be changes considerably.

In Pakistan, politics primarily depends on these tricky figures. In case of change in these figures,
politics of all leading political parties will change and for a few it may fade away completely.

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