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2016 NAND Flash Outlook Alan Chen

Memory & Storage Division


alanchen@TrendForce.com

January, 2016
SD 3.0/4.0 Controller Roadmap Estimation by
Vendors (Internal Use Only!)

Alcor UHS-I(104);1-ch;1znm TLC (7310T)


UHS-I(104);1-ch;1znm TLC/3D (7310TA)

Asolid UHS-I(104);1-ch;1ynm TLC (AS2703)


UHS-I(104);2-ch;1znm TLC/3D (AS2702)
UHS-Il(312);1-ch;1znm TLC (AS2704)

UHS-I(104);1-ch;2ynm TLC (8035)


Phison UHS-I(104);1-ch;2ynm TLC (8037)
UHS-I(104);1-ch;1znm TLC (8039)
UHS-Il(312);1-ch;1znm TLC (8036)
UHS-I(104);1-ch;1znm TLC/3D (803X)

1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16


ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION . 30 January 2016 | Page 2
SD 3.0/4.0 Controller Roadmap Estimation by
Vendors (Internal Use Only!)

UHS-I(104);1-ch;2ynm TLC (6658)


Skymedi UHS-I(104);1-ch;1znm TLC (6659)

UHS-I(104);2-ch;1ynm TLC (2702)


UHS-I(104);1-ch;1znm TLC (2703)
SMI UHS-Il(312);1-ch;1znm TLC (2704)

3S UHS-I(104);1-ch;1znm TLC/3D (5530)

StorArt UHS-I(104);1-ch;1ynm TLC(SA3301)


UHS-I(104);1-ch;1znm TLC(SA3306)

1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16


ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION . 30 January 2016 | Page 3
MicroSD Card Shipment By Density in 2015-
2016
100%
90%
80% 128GB

70% 64GB
60% 32GB
50% 16GB
40%
8GB
30%
4GB
20%
2GB
10%
0%
1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16

1znm-class TLC NAND Flash64Gb & 128Gb8GB & 16GB


MicroSD Card70%

Source: DRAMeXchange, Jan,2016

ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION . 30 January 2016 | Page 4
SD Card Shipment By Density in 2015-2016

100%
90%
80%
70% 128GB

60% 64GB
32GB
50%
16GB
40% 8GB
30% 4GB
2GB
20%
10%
0%
1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16

SD Card8GB & 16GB70%


32Gb16GB+32GB
Source: DRAMeXchange, Jan.,2016

ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION . 30 January 2016 | Page 5
2013-2018 UFS Market Penetration Rate Forecast
eMMC UFS
100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
APeMMCUFS2016
10%
UFS/NB
eMMCIn-houseUFS
UFS(40nm)
Source: DRAMeXchange, Nov.,2015

ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION . 30 January 2016 | Page 6
eMMC Controller Roadmap Estimation by
Vendors (Internal Use Only!)

eMMC 4.41;1-ch;2ynm TLC (AU7750)


Alcor eMMC 5.11-ch;1znm TLC*(AU7765)

Asolid eMMC 5.1;1-ch;1znm TLC/3D*(AS2734)

eMMC 4.5;2-ch;1ynm (SSS5551)


3S eMMC 5.1;2-ch;1znm TLC/3D* (SSS5552)

eMMC 4.41;2-ch;2xnm (SK6811)


Skymedi eMMC 5.0;1-ch;1znm TLC/3D*(SK6818)

StorArt eMMC 4.5;1-ch;1ynm TLC*(SA3601)


eMMC 5.11-ch;1znm TLC*(SA3625)

1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16

ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION . 30 January 2016 | Page 7
eMMC Controller Roadmap Estimation by
Vendors (Internal Use Only!)

eMMC 4.5;2-ch;2ynm (PS8210)


Phison eMMC 4.5;1-ch;1ynm TLC* (PS8211)
eMMC 5.0;2-ch;1ynm (PS8222)
eMMC 5.1;1-ch;1znm TLC*(PS8225)
eMMC 5.1;1-ch;1znm TLC/3D*(PS8226)
eMMC 5.1;1-ch;1znm TLC*(PS8227)
UFS 2.1;1-ch;1znm TLC/3D*(PS8311)

SMI eMMC 5.0;1-ch;1ynm MLC (SM2716)


eMMC 5.0;1-ch;1ynm TLC* (SM2726)
eMMC 5.1;1-ch;1znm (SM2718)
eMMC 5.1;1-ch;1znm TLC* (SM2736)
UFS 2.1;1-ch;1znm TLC* (SM2750)

Marvell

1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16

ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION . 30 January 2016 | Page 8
SSD Market Share in 2014 & 1Q15-3Q15

2014 Client SSD MS


1Q15-3Q15 Client SSD MS
OCZ OCZ, 0.4%
Hynix 0.4% ADATA,
2% Others Kingston Others, Kingston, 3%
9% ADATA Apple, 1%
12% LITEON 17% 11%
3% LITEON,
7% Hynix, 2%
5% Transcend
SNDK
Transcend Micron, , 1%
20%
Micron 1% SNDK, 8% 5% Apacer,
6% Intel, 4% 1%
Toshiba,
Intel
Toshiba Apacer 3% Samsung,
Samsung 6%
4% 0.3% 39%
29%

3Q15SNDKPC OEM2014
1Q15Apple NBSSD
3Q15
Source: DRAMeXchange, Nov.,2015

ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION . 30 January 2016 | Page 9
SSD Controller MP Timeframe Estimation by
Vendors (Internal Use Only!)
SATA lll: 8-ch;2xnm (SF-2281)
SandForce SATA lll: 4-ch;2ynm (SF-2241)
SATA lll & PCIe G2: 4-ch;1znm*(N)
SATA lll & PCIe G3: 9-ch;1znm* (V)

SATA lll: 8-ch;2xnm (9174)


Marvell SATA lll: 8-ch;2ynm (9187)
SATA lll: 4-ch;2xnm (9175)
SATA lll: 4-ch;2ynm (9188)
PCIe G2: 8-ch;1ynm (B)
SATA lll: 4-ch;1znm* (D)
PCIe G2: 8-ch;1ynm (A+)
PCIe G3: 8-ch;1znm* (E)
PCIe G3: 4-ch;1znm* (EL)
PCIe G3: 4-ch;1znm* (W)
PCIe G3: 4-ch;1znm*; DL (Ar+)

1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16

ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION . 30 January 2016 | Page 10
SSD Controller MP Timeframe Estimation by
Vendors (Internal Use Only!)
SATA lll 4-ch;1znm (670H)
SATA lll 2-ch;1znm; DL (60F)
Jmicron SATA lll: 4-ch;1znm*(680)
PCIe G3: 4-ch;1znm*(815)

SATA lll: 4-ch;2ynm** (3109)


SATA lll: 8-ch;1znm*(3110)
Phison SATA lll 2-ch;1znm*; DL (3111)
PCIe G3: 8-ch;1znm*(5007)
PCIe G3: 4-ch;1znm*(5008)

SATA lll: 4-ch;1ynm (2246)


SATA lll: 4-ch;1znm*(2256)
SMI PCIe G3: 8-ch;1znm*(2260)
PCIe G3: 4-ch;1znm*(2263)

Realtek SATA lll: 8-ch;1znm (5731)


PCIe G3: 8-ch;1znm (5761)
PCIe G3: 8-ch;1znm* (5762)

1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16

ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION . 30 January 2016 | Page 11
SSD Controller MP Timeframe Estimation by
Vendors (Internal Use Only!)

SAGE SATA lll & PCIe G2 5-ch;1znm (S881)

1Q15 2Q15 3Q15 4Q15 1Q16 2Q16 3Q16 4Q16

ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION . 30 January 2016 | Page 12
Client SSD Shipment Will Exceed 100M in
2016

UnitM Client SSD YoY


200 100%
180 90%
160 80%
140 70%
120 60%
100 50%
80 40%
60 30%
40 20%
20 10%
0 0%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

2015Client SSD3D TLC FlashDRAM-Less SSD


PC OEMRetail
2015Client SSD85M20%2016
20-30%
Source: DRAMeXchange, Nov.,2015

ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION . 30 January 2016 | Page 13
Interface Portion of Client SSD Market

Others PCIe G3 PCIe G2 SATA III


100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Apple NBPCIe SSDSATAPCIe


Intel Skylake4Q15PCIe G3 SSD2016
PCIeSATAPCIe G32018

Source: DRAMeXchange, Nov.,2015
ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION . 30 January 2016 | Page 14
Architecture Trend in Client SSD

3D-NAND Planar NAND-TLC Planar NAND-MLC


100%
90%
80%
70%
60%
50%
40%
30%
20%
10%
0%
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

3D TLC SSD3D-NAND SSD201520%


20163D-NAND SSD30%
3D-NAND SSDClientTLC

Source: DRAMeXchange, Nov.,2015

ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION . 30 January 2016 | Page 15
Client SSD By Density During 2015-2017

PC OEM SSD Retail SSD


100% 100%
90% 90% 2TB
2TB
80% 80%
1TB 1TB
70% 70%
512GB
60% 60% 512GB
256GB
50% 50%
128GB 256GB
40% 40%
64GB 30%
30% 128GB
32GB 20%
20% 64GB
16GB 10%
10%
0% 0%
2015 2016 2017 2015 2016 2017

2015PC OEMRetail SSD128GB2016


256GB128GB

Source: DRAMeXchange, Nov.,2015

ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION . 30 January 2016 | Page 16
NB SSD Attach Rate Forecast
UnitM
NB Shipment (M) NB Attach Rate (%)
200 100%
180 90%
160 80%
140 70%
120 60%
100 42% 50%
80 31% 40%
26%
60 21% 30%
40 20%
20 10%
0 0%
2014 2015 2016 2017

20163D Flash/TLC/DRAM-Less SSDNB SSD Attach


rate30%201740%

Source: DRAMeXchange, Nov.,2015

ALL RIGHTS RESERVED. REPRODUCTION PROHIBITED WITHOUT WRITTEN PERMISSION . 30 January 2016 | Page 17