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Variables

Extensin total del terreno 26


Valor de Mercado del Terreno 2,000
Numero de racimos por manzana promedio 1080 1,300
Numero de dedos por racimo promedio 25 30
Desperdicio por dao mecanico, plagas y transporte 5%
Precio de Venta (por millar) aumentar c/ao por inflacion785
Inflacin 20%
Costo Variable (tercer valor en adelante afectado x inflaci 42,435.00 365,348.00
Gastos de Comercializacin (es afectado por inflacin) 12,000
Gastos Administrativos (afectados por inflacin) 140864
Venta de Terreno (36 Hectareas) 2000 por hectarea
Financiamiento 17%
Plazo prstamo (aos) 5
Periodo de gracia 1
Devaluacin cordoba 20%
(al inicio del proyecto era de 8$)
ISR 30%
Costo de Oportunidad de recursos propios 36%
Capital de Trabajo Inicial 14,630
Escenarios 1 2
Financiamiento 0% 60%
Propio 100% 40%

% Deuda
% Capital
Costo de Capital

Produccin y Ventas 1

Area Cultivable 33
Racimos por manzana 1,080
Dedos por racimo 25
Produccin bruta 891,000
Desperdicio por dao mecanico 5% 44,550
Produccin Neta 846,450.00
Precio (cordova x millar de dedos) 20% 785
Ingreso por Ventas 664,463.25
Costo Variable 20% 42,435.00
Margen de Contribucin 622,028.25
(-) Depreciacin 102,020
(-) Amortizacin 86,544
Utilidad Bruta 433,464
(-) Gastos Administrativos 20% 140,864
(-) Gastos de Comercializacin 20% 12,000
Utilidad de Operacin 280,600
Gastos Financieros
Utilidad antes de Impuesto 280,600
(-) ISR 30% 84,180
Utilidad Neta 196,420.18
(+) Depreciacin 102,020
(+) Amortizacin 86,544
Flujo Operativo 384,984

O
Depreciacin Vida Util Valor Original
Cercado 5 26,500.00
Drenajes 5 32,000.00
Riego, Pozo, Bomba 10 554,400.00
Construcciones 10 99,200.00
Bombas Fumigacion 5 4,800.00
Vehiculo 5 120,000.00
Total Depreciaciones 836,900.00
Amortizaciones
Semilla 5 171,000.00
Plantacion (Mano de obra e Insumos) 5 146,300.00
Imprevistos 5 115,420
Total Amortizaciones 432,720

Inversin 0

Cercado 26,500
Drenaje 32,000
Pozo de agua y bomba de riego 554,400
Construcciones 99,200
Bombas de fumigacion 4,800
Vehculo 120,000
Plantacin 317,300
Semilla 171,000.00
Mano de Obra e insumos 146,300.00
Sub total 1,154,200
Imprevistos 10% 115,420
Capital de Trabajo (20% c/ao inflacin) 10%
Requerimiento de capital de trabajo
Sub total 1,269,620
Terreno 576,000
Valor de Venta del Terreno
Ganancia de Capital
Imp s/ganancia de capital 30%
Flujo de Venta Terreno
Total Inversin 1,845,620

-
Financiamiento 40%
(+) Prestamo
(-) Amortizacin Capital
Saldo de Capital
Amortizaciones Intereses
Escudo Fiscal

Flujo del Proyecto (1,845,620)


TIR 44%
NPV (36%) 504,226.43

Precio de Compra Terreno en Crdovas


# de manzanas 36
Precio por manzana $ 2,000.00
Costo Total $ 72,000.00
Tipo de cambio en el ao cero 8.00
Precio de compra en cordovas 576,000.00

Prestamo 60%
Inversin 1,845,620.00
Prestamo 1,107,372
Periodo Pago 5
Periodo Gracia 1
Tasa 17%
Cuota 403,674

Prestamo 90%
Inversin 1,845,620.00
Prestamo 1,661,058
Periodo Pago 5
Periodo Gracia 1
Tasa 17%
Cuota 605,510.64

ANLISIS
En mi opinin el Dr. Luque si debera invertir en el proyecto agrcola, porque su costo de oprtunidad e
base a estos resultados la TIR me da un 44%, esto significa un 8% ms de lo que espero de regreso, sm
504,226, reflejando que podr cubrir mi inversin y tendr 500k+ adicionales.

No es necerario inquerir a prestamos bancarios cuando se puede cubrir todos los gastos y la inversin
que hasta me genera dinero adicional.
1,400

3
90%
10%

2 3 4 5 6

33 33 33 33 33
1,300 1,400 1,400 1,400 1,400
30 30 30 30 30
1,287,000 1,386,000 1,386,000 1,386,000 1,386,000
64,350 69,300 69,300 69,300 69,300
1,222,650.00 1,316,700.00 1,316,700.00 1,316,700.00 1,316,700.00
942 1,130 1,356 1,628 1,953
1,151,736.30 1,488,397.68 1,786,077.22 2,143,292.66 2,571,951.19
365,348.00 438,417.60 526,101.12 631,321.34 757,585.61
786,388.30 1,049,980.08 1,259,976.10 1,511,971.32 1,814,365.58
101,980 101,980 101,980 101,980 77,662
86,544 86,544 86,544 86,544
597,864 861,456 1,071,452 1,323,447 1,736,704
169,037 202,844 243,413 292,096 350,515
14,400 17,280 20,736 24,883 29,860
414,428 641,332 807,303 1,006,469 1,356,329

414,428 641,332 807,303 1,006,469 1,356,329


124,328 192,400 242,191 301,941 406,899
290,099.25 448,932.34 565,112.17 704,527.97 949,430.46
101,980 101,980 101,980 101,980 77,662
86,544 86,544 86,544 86,544
478,623 637,456 753,636 893,052 1,027,092

1 2 3 4 5

5,300 5,300 5,300 5,300 5,300


6,400 6,400 6,400 6,400 6,400
55,440 55,400 55,400 55,400 55,400
9,920 9,920 9,920 9,920 9,920
960 960 960 960 960
24,000 24,000 24,000 24,000 24,000
102,020 101,980 101,980 101,980 101,980

34,200 34,200 34,200 34,200 34,200


29,260 29,260 29,260 29,260 29,260
23,084 23,084 23,084 23,084 23,084
86,544 86,544 86,544 86,544 86,544

1 2 3 4 5
14,630 17,556 21,067 25,281 30,337
2,926 3,511 4,213 5,056

1 2 3 4 5

478,623 634,530 750,125 888,839 1,022,036

Calculo del tipo de cambio ao 10 Precio de Venta Terreno


Ao cero 8 Precio Terreo Ao 0 $
Devaluacin 20% Cambio del $ Ao 10
Plazo 10 Valor Terreno en 10 aos
Ao 10 49.53
que su costo de oprtunidad es de 36% pero en
lo que espero de regreso, smandole un VPN de
nales.

odos los gastos y la inversin con capital propio,


7 8 9 10

33 33 33 33
1,400 1,400 1,400 1,400
30 30 30 30
1,386,000 1,386,000 1,386,000 1,386,000
69,300 69,300 69,300 69,300
1,316,700.00 1,316,700.00 1,316,700.00 1,316,700.00
2,344 2,813 3,375 4,050
3,086,341.43 3,703,609.72 4,444,331.66 5,333,197.99
909,102.74 1,090,923.28 1,309,107.94 1,570,929.53
2,177,238.69 2,612,686.43 3,135,223.72 3,762,268.46
77,662 77,662 77,662 77,662
2,099,577 2,535,025 3,057,562 3,684,607
420,618 504,741 605,689 726,827
35,832 42,998 51,598 61,917
1,643,127 1,987,285 2,400,275 2,895,862

1,643,127 1,987,285 2,400,275 2,895,862


492,938 596,186 720,082 868,759
1,150,189.20 1,391,099.70 1,680,192.29 2,027,103.40
77,662 77,662 77,662 77,662

1,227,851 1,468,761 1,757,854 2,104,765

6 7 8 9 10

55,400 55,400 55,400 55,400 55,400


9,920 9,920 9,920 9,920 9,920
2388.80 2388.80 2388.80 2388.80 2388.80
9,953 9,953 9,953 9,953 9,953
77,662 77,662 77,662 77,662 77,662

6 7 8 9 10

11,944
49,765
36,404 43,685 52,422 62,906 75,488
6,067 7,281 8,737 10,484 12,581

3,566,440.18
2,990,440.18
897,132.05
2,669,308.13

1,283,493 1,461,481 1,749,117 2,094,281 4,836,980

72,000.00
49.53
3,566,440.18
Amortizacion Prestamo 2do Escenario
1,845,620.00
Importe del Prestamo 1,661,058.00
Tasa de Interes Anual 90%
Plazo del prestamo 5
Plazo para pago de capital 4
Numero de pagos al ano 12

Capital Interes

Saldo
Ao 1 1 124,579.35
2 124,579.35
3 124,579.35
4 124,579.35
5 124,579.35
6 124,579.35
7 124,579.35
8 124,579.35
9 124,579.35
10 124,579.35
11 124,579.35
12 124,579.35
Ao 2 1 C$ 3,995.30 124,579.35
2 C$ 4,294.94 124,279.70
3 C$ 4,617.06 123,957.58
4 C$ 4,963.34 123,611.30
5 C$ 5,335.60 123,239.05
6 C$ 5,735.77 122,838.88
7 C$ 6,165.95 122,408.70
8 C$ 6,628.39 121,946.25
9 C$ 7,125.52 121,449.12
10 C$ 7,659.94 120,914.71
11 C$ 8,234.43 120,340.21
12 C$ 8,852.02 119,722.63
Ao 3 1 C$ 9,515.92 119,058.73
2 C$ 10,229.61 118,345.04
3 C$ 10,996.83 117,577.82
4 C$ 11,821.59 116,753.05
5 C$ 12,708.21 115,866.43
6 C$ 13,661.33 114,913.32
7 C$ 14,685.93 113,888.72
8 C$ 15,787.37 112,787.27
9 C$ 16,971.43 111,603.22
10 C$ 18,244.28 110,330.36
11 C$ 19,612.60 108,962.04
12 C$ 21,083.55 107,491.10
Ao 4 1 C$ 22,664.82 105,909.83
2 C$ 24,364.68 104,209.97
3 C$ 26,192.03 102,382.62
4 C$ 28,156.43 100,418.22
5 C$ 30,268.16 98,306.48
6 C$ 32,538.27 96,036.37
7 C$ 34,978.65 93,596.00
8 C$ 37,602.04 90,972.60
9 C$ 40,422.20 88,152.45
10 C$ 43,453.86 85,120.79
11 C$ 46,712.90 81,861.75
12 C$ 50,216.37 78,358.28
Total ao 5 C$ 53,982.60 74,592.05
1 C$ 58,031.29 70,543.36
2 C$ 62,383.64 66,191.01
3 C$ 67,062.41 61,512.24
4 C$ 72,092.09 56,482.56
5 C$ 77,499.00 51,075.65
6 C$ 83,311.42 45,263.22
7 C$ 89,559.78 39,014.87
8 C$ 96,276.76 32,297.88
9 C$ 103,497.52 25,077.13
10 C$ 111,259.84 17,314.81
11 C$ 119,604.32 8,970.32
12 C$ 128,574.65 (0.00)
mo 2do Escenario
Cuota Programada C$ 128,574.65
Interes Total

Cuota Saldo

1,661,058.00
1,661,058.00
1,661,058.00
1,661,058.00
1,661,058.00
1,661,058.00
1,661,058.00
1,661,058.00
1,661,058.00
1,661,058.00
1,661,058.00
1,661,058.00
128,574.65 1,661,058.00
128,574.65 1,657,062.70
128,574.65 1,652,767.76
128,574.65 1,648,150.69
128,574.65 1,643,187.35
128,574.65 1,637,851.75
128,574.65 1,632,115.99
128,574.65 1,625,950.04
128,574.65 1,619,321.65
128,574.65 1,612,196.12
128,574.65 1,604,536.19
128,574.65 1,596,301.75
128,574.65 1,587,449.74
128,574.65 1,577,933.82
128,574.65 1,567,704.21
128,574.65 1,556,707.38
128,574.65 1,544,885.79
128,574.65 1,532,177.57
128,574.65 1,518,516.24
128,574.65 1,503,830.32
128,574.65 1,488,042.94
128,574.65 1,471,071.52
128,574.65 1,452,827.23
128,574.65 1,433,214.63
128,574.65 1,412,131.08
128,574.65 1,389,466.26
128,574.65 1,365,101.58
128,574.65 1,338,909.56
128,574.65 1,310,753.13
128,574.65 1,280,484.96
128,574.65 1,247,946.69
128,574.65 1,212,968.04
128,574.65 1,175,366.00
128,574.65 1,134,943.80
128,574.65 1,091,489.94
128,574.65 1,044,777.04
128,574.65 994,560.67
128,574.65 940,578.08
128,574.65 882,546.79
128,574.65 820,163.15
128,574.65 753,100.74
128,574.65 681,008.64
128,574.65 603,509.65
128,574.65 520,198.22
128,574.65 430,638.44
128,574.65 334,361.68
128,574.65 230,864.16
128,574.65 119,604.32
128,574.65 (0.00)