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This document is being provided for the exclusive use of EDI SULISTIYANTO at PT KRESNA 26 JulSEKURITAS
2017 12:10 AM HKT
Disseminated 26 Jul 2017 12:10 AM HKT
Asia Pacific Equity Research
25 July 2017
Astra has shed 11.5% from its peak in mid-June, lagging the country index Indonesia, Singapore
by 12%. We think the prime factor is technical. Astras performance Auto Parts
typically tends to track foreign activity, and Indonesian equities have Aditya Srinath
AC
Astra to report 2Q profit growth of 13% y/y, with earnings momentum Bloomberg JPMA SRINATH <GO>
J.P. Morgan Securities Singapore Private
accelerating in 2H. Within the family, we project UNTR 2Q EPS growth Limited
of 35% y/y and reiterate our OW, and we also like JCNC (OW). Indra Cahya, CFA
Astra Technicals, rather than volumes, behind the fall? We see (62-21) 5291-8575
indra.cahya@jpmorgan.com
Astras weak reported June volumes (-27% y/y) as misleading. Instead, PT J.P. Morgan Securities Indonesia
we attribute the stocks decline to the extended streak of equity market Karen Li, CFA
outflows in the last month. Astra tends to be sensitive to flows, as over (852) 2800-8589
84% of the free float is held by foreigners (see p.2). As broader outflows karen.yy.li@jpmorgan.com
ebb, Astra should reverse its recent 12% underperformance, in our view, J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited
and we would see this as a buying opportunity, all else equal. Nick Lai
(852) 2800 8543
2Q preview Seasonality to play its part: Astra sold 137,000 four- nick.yc.lai@jpmorgan.com
wheelers (4W) in 2Q, -6% y/y and -15% m/m. The timing shift of the J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited
Lebaran holiday from July to June (fewer working days in 2QFY17 vs. Cusson Leung, CFA
2QFY16) was the main factor behind the contraction. For context, Astra (852) 2800-8526
cusson.leung@jpmorgan.com
sold 36,745 cars in June of FY17. Last year, it sold 49,685 vehicles in
J.P. Morgan Securities (Asia Pacific) Limited
June, but a comparable 37,108 in July. We expect Astra to report
2QFY17 PAT of Rp4.5tn, up 13% y/y. We expect earnings momentum Table 1: 2Q PAT preview
to pick up in 2H, with 3Q boosted by the reversal of the 2Q seasonal dip. 2Q PAT % y/y % q/q
Astra Rp4 .5tn 13% -11%
United Tractors Mix shift to drive ASPs and growth: Sixty-one UNTR Rp1.5tn 36% 1.7%
percent of UNTRs Komatsu deliveries in 1Q were to mining clients vs. JC&C $200mn 5% -1%
42% in 4Q and last year. This shift should lift machinery business ASPs Source: J.P. Morgan estimates.
10% q/q. We pencil in 2Q PAT of Rp1.5tn, +36% y/y and flat q/q. Our
FY17/18 EPS estimates are 5% ahead of consensus, and 2Q results as we
envisage should prompt upward earnings revisions. We rate UNTR OW
with a Rp31,500 PT.
JCNC vs. Astra: JCNC has held up relative to Astra in the recent drop.
The 5.5% relative move bolsters our opinion that flows, rather than
fundamentals, have driven Astras stock move. We expect JCNC to
report 2Q earnings growth of 5% y/y, with Astra contributing 83% of net
income.
Equity Ratings and Price Targets
Mkt Cap Price Rating Price Target
Company Ticker ($ mn) CCY Price Cur Prev Cur Prev
Astra International ASII IJ 24,637.50 IDR 8,100 OW n/c 9,200 n/c
United Tractors UNTR IJ 8,100.16 IDR 28,900 OW n/c 31,500 n/c
Jardine Cycle & Carriage Ltd JCNC SP 12,128.98 SGD 41.80 OW n/c 51.00 n/c
Source: Company data, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates. n/c = no change. All prices as of 25 Jul 17.
See page 18 for analyst certification and important disclosures, including non-US analyst disclosures.
J.P. Morgan does and seeks to do business with companies covered in its research reports. As a result, investors should be aware that
the firm may have a conflict of interest that could affect the objectivity of this report. Investors should consider this report as only a single
factor in making their investment decision.
www.jpmorganmarkets.com
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We have observed Astras stock price as sensitive over the last several years to
foreign portfolio flows into Indonesias equity market. Astra tends to perform during
periods of high foreign flows and lag during phases when outflows dominate.
9,000 10,000
8,000
8,000
7,000
6,000
6,000
4,000
5,000
3,000 -
Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17
Source: Bloomberg.
We attribute Astras higher flow sensitivity to its relatively high foreign ownership.
Foreign investors control about 54% of the shares registered at the Indonesian
Depository Company. Astras foreign holdings are 84% of its free float (or 92% of
the total equity of the company, including JCNC). We think this high ownership
level increases its sensitivity to foreign equity in/outflows compared to the broader
market.
87%
85% 6,000
83%
81% 4,000
79%
2,000
77% ASII Max & min Price (RHS)
75% -
Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17
Source: KSEI, Bloomberg. Expressed as a % of dematerialized shares, which in Astras case corresponds to free float.
After a period of high inflows ($1.6bn in 5MFY17), equity flows recently turned
negative from Indonesia. Foreign investors have extracted $810mn in July, with
flows negative for the last 16 consecutive sessions, the longest such streak this year.
We see this as the prime factor behind Astras 11.5% decline (-12% vs. JCI/MSCI)
since mid-June. We think the stocks fundamentals will return to focus as outflows
ebb and eventually reverse, justifying outperformance.
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Astras parent, JCNC, has held up relative to Astra. JCNC is down 3.5% in USD
terms since 3 July, while Astra declined 7% over the same period. (Indonesia
reopened for trading on 3 July after an extended market holiday, while Singapore
was open, making the latter part of June less relevant for comparison.) This
differential also adds to our view that the decline is less about company fundamentals
(Astra contributes 83% of JCNCs net income and comprises a larger proportion of
its market cap).
Source: Bloomberg. Note: Past results are not an indicator of future performance.
-10%
+1 SD
NAV discounts are currently
avg
below long-term average -20%
-30%
-1 SD
JCNC Disc to NAV
-40%
Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17
Source: Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan.
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2Q earnings preview
Astra
After printing >Rp5tn in 1Q, profits may pull back to Rp4.5tn (+13% y/y, -11% q/q)
in 2Q, per our estimates. Different timing for Lebaran caused lower volumes in 2Q17
(4W -6% y/y, 2W -13% y/y), which may translate into lower auto profits despite
strong margins. We see 4W per-unit profits at Rp9mn (-4% y/y) and 2W per-unit
profits at Rp900,000 (+16% y/y). Permata Bank has turned profitable, resulting in a
stronger contribution from the financial services division (+48% y/y). A better
commodities environment should drive AALI/UNTR profits 21-33% higher y/y, in
our view.
1.1 12
11
1.0
10
0.9 9
0.8 8
7
0.7
6
0.6 5
0.5 4
4QFY09 2QFY10 4QFY10 2QFY11 4QFY11 2QFY12 4QFY12 2QFY13 4QFY13 2QFY14 4QFY14 2QFY15 4QFY15 2QFY16 4QFY16 2QFY17E
Source: J.P. Morgan estimates.
UNTR
Higher Komatsu (2Q: +60% y/y) and mining contracting volume (+10% y/y)
continue to drive revenue higher (+11% y/y). From its own coal mining, softer
volumes should be partly offset by higher coal prices. We anticipate a stronger gross
margin of 21.7%. There should be minimal impact from FX, given that Rupiah has
been stable.
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Core net income 1,493 965 1,248 1,317 1,590 1,568 1,507 20.8% -3.9%
Tax rate 37.2% 21.2% 23.9% 23.2% 26.0% 23.1% 24.0%
Gross margin 25.1% 17.6% 19.1% 21.4% 26.5% 20.9% 21.4%
Operating margin 16.6% 11.9% 13.2% 15.5% 18.2% 15.2% 15.1%
Source: Company data, J.P. Morgan estimates.
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Astra International
Astra International Tbk (Reuters: ASII.JK, Bloomberg: ASII IJ)
Company Data Rp in bn, year-end Dec FY14A FY15A FY16A FY17E FY18E
Shares O/S (mn) 40,480 Revenue (Rp bn) 201,701 184,196 181,084 202,954 221,473
Market Cap (Rp bn) 327,888.00 Net Profit (Rp bn) 20,837 16,015 15,156 20,083 23,190
Market Cap ($ bn) 24.64 EPS (Rp) 514.76 395.63 374.41 496.13 572.86
Price (Rp) 8,100 DPS (Rp) 213.34 159.86 168.48 223.26 257.79
Date Of Price 25 Jul 17 Revenue growth (%) 4.0% (8.7%) (1.7%) 12.1% 9.1%
Free Float(%) 49.9% EPS growth (%) 7.3% (23.1%) (5.4%) 32.5% 15.5%
3M - Avg daily vol (mn) 33.97 ROCE 14.3% 11.5% 11.0% 11.1% 11.7%
3M - Avg daily val (Rp mn) 296,625.10 ROE 25.1% 17.8% 14.2% 17.1% 17.8%
3M - Avg daily val ($ mn) 22.3 P/E (x) 15.7 20.5 21.6 16.3 14.1
JCI 5813.54 P/BV (x) 3.4 3.2 2.9 2.7 2.4
Exchange Rate 13,308.49 EV/EBITDA (x) 11.9 12.5 13.0 11.3 10.0
Price Target End Date 31-Dec-17 Dividend Yield 2.6% 2.0% 2.1% 2.8% 3.2%
Source: Company data, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates.
Valuation
We use a DCF/DDM-based model to value Astras unlisted businesses and apply J.P.
Morgan price targets (also derived using DCF) for listed subsidiaries UNTR and
AALI. We use an 7.5% risk-free rate and 6% equity risk premium. Our PT of
Rp9,200 assumes that Astra reverts back to its previous P/E range and applies a
conservative 16x 12M fwd P/E in Dec-17 vs. 17.4x currently. Our PT is in line with
Astras 52-week high.
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United Tractors
PT United Tractors tbk (Reuters: UNTR.JK, Bloomberg: UNTR IJ)
Company Data Rp in bn, year-end Dec FY15A FY16A FY17E FY18E FY19E
Shares O/S (mn) 3,730 Revenue (Rp bn) 49,348 45,539 55,201 62,485 65,691
Market Cap (Rp bn) 107,800.90 Net Profit (Rp bn) 3,853 5,002 7,100 8,008 8,458
Market Cap ($ bn) 8.10 EPS (Rp) 1,033.01 1,340.97 1,903.46 2,146.82 2,267.35
Price (Rp) 28,900 DPS (Rp) 796.00 583.00 856.56 966.07 1,020.31
Date Of Price 25 Jul 17 Revenue growth (%) (7.1%) (7.7%) 21.2% 13.2% 5.1%
Free Float(%) - EPS growth (%) (28.1%) 29.8% 41.9% 12.8% 5.6%
3M - Avg daily vol (mn) 4.60 ROCE 15.5% 12.4% 14.9% 14.6% 14.0%
3M - Avg daily val (Rp mn) 120,868.80 ROE 17.1% 12.4% 16.6% 17.1% 16.4%
3M - Avg daily val ($ mn) 9.1 P/E (x) 28.0 21.6 15.2 13.5 12.7
JCI 5813.54 P/BV (x) 2.8 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.0
Exchange Rate 13,308.49 EV/EBITDA (x) 7.0 8.3 6.3 5.5 5.0
Price Target End Date 30-Jun-18 Dividend Yield 2.8% 2.0% 3.0% 3.3% 3.5%
Price Target (Rp) 31,500 Source: Company data, Bloomberg, J.P. Morgan estimates.
Valuation
The market seems to consider UNTR a late cyclical stock. We argue that UNTR will
sustain its premium valuation due to above-market earnings growth. We set our price
target of Rp31,500 by Jun-18 at a 14.3x fwd P/E, sustaining the current multiple.
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Valuation
We are OW JCNC with a Dec-17 PT of S$51. This implies a reversion to a 26%
NAV discount and a 13.5x forward P/E.
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Astra International
Key catalysts for the stock price: Upside risks to our view: Downside risks to our view:
1) 4W and 2W sales 1) Stronger 4W and 2W demand 1) Prolonged asset quality issues at Bank
2) Performance of major subsidiaries 2) Improving commodity outlook, which should help Permata
UNTR and AALI, as well as financial UNTR and AALI 2) Tightening competition, which would
services impact profitability and market share
Key financial metrics FY15A FY16A FY17E FY18E Valuation and price target basis
Revenues (Rp bn) 184,196 181,084 202,954 221,473 Our PT of assumes that Astra trades at a 16x 12M fwd P/E in Dec-
Revenue growth (%) -8.7% -1.7% 12.1% 9.1% 17. We also a DCF/DDM-based model to value Astras unlisted
EBITDA (Rp bn) 32,614 31,350 35,050 39,118 businesses, while applying J.P. Morgan price targets (also derived
EBITDA margin (%) 17.7% 17.3% 17.3% 17.7% using DCF) for listed subsidiaries UNTR and AALI. We use a 7.5%
risk-free rate and 6% equity risk premium.
Tax rate (%) -15.8% -12.6% -16.6% -16.9%
Net profit (Rp bn) 16,015 15,156 20,083 23,190
EPS (Rp) 396 374 496 573
EPS growth (%) -23.1% -5.4% 32.5% 15.5%
DPS (Rp) 160 168 223 258
BVPS (Rp) 2,521 2,766 3,051 3,378
Operating cash flow (Rp bn) 25,543 24,386 26,398 30,929
Free cash flow (Rp bn) 20,350 14,915 14,099 18,267
Interest cover (X) (225) 682 (94) (48) DCF key assumptions
Net margin (%) 8.7% 8.4% 9.9% 10.5%
Sales/avg. assets (X) 0.77 0.71 0.76 0.79 Risk-free rate: 7.5%
Debt/equity (%) 69% 63% 57% 52% Market risk premium: 6.0%
Net debt/equity (%) 43% 37% 23% 18% Beta: 1.39
ROE (%) 17.8% 14.2% 17.1% 17.8% Debt/equity: 0
Key model assumptions FY15A FY16E FY17E FY18E Cost of debt: -NA-
4W sales (units) 510,227 590,976 653,843 678,300 Terminal g: -NA-
2W sales (units) 4,453,888 4,380,888 4,817,184 4,968,000
UNTR net profit (Rp bn) 6,453 5,002 6,796 7,852
AALI net profit (Rp bn) 619 1,564 1,709 1,815
Source: Bloomberg, Company and J.P. Morgan estimates. Source: J.P. Morgan estimates.
Equity
Sensitivity analysis EPS value JPMe vs. consensus, change in estimates
Sensitivity to FY16E FY16E EPS (Rp) FY17E FY18E
10% chg. in 4W sales 2.0% 2.6%
10% chg. in 2W sales 1.3% 1.5% JPMe 496 573
10% chg. in UNTR net profit 1.8% 1.7% Consensus 486 539
10% chg. in AALI net profit 0.9% 0.8% JPMe vs. consensus 2.1% 6.4%
Source: Bloomberg, Company and J.P. Morgan estimates. Source: Bloomberg, Company and J.P. Morgan estimates.
Comparative metrics
Price Mkt cap P/E (x) Dividend yield (%) P/BV (x) YTD
(LC) ($M) FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E stock perf.
Astra International 8,100 24,604 20.9 16.7 2.2 2.6 3.0 2.6 -2.1%
Indomobil Sukses International 1,090 226 549.1 N/A N/A N/A 0.5 0.6 -16.8%
United Tractors 28,900 8,088 23.3 15.9 1.8 2.4 2.7 2.4 36.0%
Jardine Matheson 64 46,493 17.3 15.5 2.3 2.4 1.2 1.1 15.0%
Jardine Strategic 42 46,554 16.3 15.2 0.7 0.8 1.1 1.0 25.9%
Jardine Cycle & Carriage 42 12,138 17.4 13.8 2.2 2.8 2.2 1.9 1.4%
Source: Bloomberg, Company and J.P. Morgan estimates. Prices are as of 25 Jul 2017. Past results are not an indicator of future performance.
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United Tractors
Key catalysts for the stock price: Upside risks to our view: Downside risks to our view:
1) Komatsu monthly sales 1) Earnings surprise on currency and better margins Lower coal prices, which could cause weaker
2) Coal price outlook 2) EPS growth prompting a P/E rerating earnings and PE compression
3) Rupiah depreciation
Key financial metrics FY16A FY17E FY18E FY19E Valuation and price target basis
Revenues (Rp bn) 45,539 55,201 62,485 65,691 Our Jun-18 PT of Rp31,500 implies a 14.3x fwd P/E, sustaining
Revenue growth (%) -7.7% 21.2% 13.2% 5.1% UNTRs current P/E multiple.
EBITDA (Rp bn) 10,129 13,396 15,275 16,567
EBITDA margin (%) 22.2% 24.3% 24.4% 25.2%
Tax rate (%) 24.2% 25.0% 25.0% 25.0%
Adj. net profit (Rp bn) 5,104 7,100 8,008 8,458
Adj. EPS (Rp) 1,341 1,903 2,147 2,267
EPS growth (%) 41.9% 12.8% 5.6%
DPS (Rp) 583 857 966 1,020
BVPS (Rp) 10,954 12,001 13,182 14,429
Operating cash flow (Rp bn) 9,538 11,740 11,744 14,087 DCF key assumptions
Free cash flow (Rp bn) 6,557 3,252 4,711 7,220
Interest cover (X) (53) (64) (269) (214) Risk-free rate: 8.00%
Net margin (%) 11.2% 12.9% 12.8% 12.9% Market risk premium: 8.00%
Sales/assets (X) 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.8 Beta: 0.97
Debt/equity (%) 2.6% 10.1% 12.2% 11.2% Cost of equity: 15.8%
Net debt/equity (%) -43.6% -38.6% -35.3% -36.1% WACC: 12.5%
ROE (%) 12.4% 16.6% 17.1% 16.4% Long-term D/E: 30%
Key model assumptions FY16A FY17E FY18E FY19E
Komatsu sales (units) 2,181 3,300 3,600 3,600
Mining contracting volume (mMT) 109.2 115 120 125
Average Rp/USD rate 13,305 13,387 13,300 13,300
Own coal sales (mMT) 6.81 7.20 8.00 8.50
Source: Bloomberg, Company and J.P. Morgan estimates. Source: J.P. Morgan estimates.
Comparative metrics
CMP Mkt cap P/E (x) EV/EBITDA (x) P/BV (x) YTD
(LC) ($M) FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E FY17E FY18E stock perf.
United Tractors 28,125 7,418 15.5 13.7 7.4 6.6 2.3 2.1 32.4%
Astra International 8,150 26,204 16.8 15.1 14.0 13.0 2.7 2.4 -1.5%
Caterpillar 108 54,644 25.3 20.0 11.1 9.4 4.2 4.0 16.6%
Sime Darby Berhad 10 14,261 NA 23.7 14.8 14.0 1.8 1.7 17.9%
Toromont Industries 47 2,745 21.8 19.5 11.6 10.8 3.7 3.3 10.6%
Komatsu 2,913 24,581 21.8 18.3 10.8 9.2 1.7 1.6 10.0%
Source: Bloomberg, Company and J.P. Morgan estimates. Prices are as of 25 Jul 2017. Past results are not an indicator of future performance.
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Comparative metrics
Price Mkt cap P/E (x) Dividend yield (%) P/BV (x) YTD
(LC) ($M) FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E FY16E FY17E stock perf.
Jardine Cycle & Carriage 42 12,251 14.0 12.6 2.8 3.1 2.0 1.8 2.4%
Astra International 8,125 24,763 16.7 15.1 2.6 3.0 2.7 2.4 -1.5%
Indomobil Sukses International 1,100 228 0.3 0.6 0.6 -16.0%
UMW Holdings BHD 6 1,561 26.1 16.5 1.8 2.3 1.5 1.4 35.5%
Jardine Matheson 64 46,639 15.5 14.5 2.4 2.5 1.1 1.1 15.4%
Jardine Strategic 42 47,032 15.4 14.3 0.8 0.8 1.0 0.9 27.2%
Source: Bloomberg, Company and J.P. Morgan estimates. Prices are as of 25 Jul 2017. Past results are not an indicator of future performance.
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JPM Q-Profile
PT Astra International Tbk (INDONESIA / Consumer Discretionary)
As Of: 21-Jul-2017 Quant_Strategy@jpmorgan.com
Local Share Price Current: 8225.00 12 Mth Forward EPS Current: 533.85
10,000.00 800.00
9,000.00 700.00
8,000.00 600.00
7,000.00 500.00
6,000.00 400.00
5,000.00 300.00
4,000.00 200.00
3,000.00 100.00
2,000.00 0.00
1,000.00
-100.00
0.00
-200.00
Jun/02
Mar/03
Dec/03
Sep/04
Jun/05
Mar/06
Dec/06
Sep/07
Jun/08
Mar/09
Dec/09
Sep/10
Jun/11
Mar/12
Dec/12
Sep/13
Jun/14
Mar/15
Dec/15
Sep/16
Jun/17
Jun/02
Feb/03
Oct/03
Jun/04
Feb/05
Oct/05
Jun/06
Feb/07
Oct/07
Jun/08
Feb/09
Oct/09
Jun/10
Feb/11
Oct/11
Jun/12
Feb/13
Oct/13
Jun/14
Feb/15
Oct/15
Jun/16
Feb/17
PE (1Yr Forward) Current: 15.4x P/E Relative to Indonesia Index Current: 0.94
25.0x
2.50
20.0x 2.00
15.0x 1.50
10.0x 1.00
5.0x 0.50
0.0x 0.00
Jun/02
Feb/03
Oct/03
Jun/04
Feb/05
Oct/05
Jun/06
Feb/07
Oct/07
Jun/08
Feb/09
Oct/09
Jun/10
Feb/11
Oct/11
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Oct/13
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Feb/15
Oct/15
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Feb/17
Oct/03
Oct/05
Oct/07
Oct/09
Oct/11
Oct/13
Oct/15
Jun/02
Feb/03
Jun/04
Feb/05
Jun/06
Feb/07
Jun/08
Feb/09
Jun/10
Feb/11
Jun/12
Feb/13
Jun/14
Feb/15
Jun/16
Feb/17
Earnings Yield (& Local Bond Yield) Current: 6.49% Dividend Yield (Trailing) Current: 1.88
50% 12.0
12Mth fwd EY Indonesia BY Proxy
45%
10.0
40%
35% 8.0
30%
25% 6.0
20%
4.0
15%
10%
2.0
5%
0% 0.0
Jun/02
Feb/03
Oct/03
Jun/04
Feb/05
Oct/05
Jun/06
Feb/07
Oct/07
Jun/08
Feb/09
Oct/09
Jun/10
Feb/11
Oct/11
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Feb/15
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Oct/03
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Oct/07
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Oct/15
Jun/02
Feb/03
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Feb/05
Jun/06
Feb/07
Jun/08
Feb/09
Jun/10
Feb/11
Jun/12
Feb/13
Jun/14
Feb/15
Jun/16
Feb/17
ROE (Trailing) Current: 15.45 Price/Book (Value) Current: 2.8x
60.00
6.0x P/B Trailing P/B Forward
50.00
5.0x
40.00
4.0x
30.00
3.0x
20.00
2.0x
10.00
1.0x
0.00
0.0x
Jun/02
Feb/03
Oct/03
Jun/04
Feb/05
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Jun/02
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Jun/06
Feb/07
Oct/07
Jun/08
Feb/09
Oct/09
Jun/10
Feb/11
Oct/11
Jun/12
Feb/13
Oct/13
Jun/14
Feb/15
Oct/15
Jun/16
Feb/17
Summary
PT Astra International Tbk 25970.46 As Of: 21-Jul-17
INDONESIA 18.15746 TICKER ASII IJ EQUITY Local Price: 8,225.00
Consumer Discretionary Automobiles EPS: 533.85
Latest Min Max Median Average 2 S.D.+ 2 S.D. - % to Min % to Max % to Med % to Avg
12mth Forward PE 15.41x 2.32 18.02 12.83 11.47 19.31 3.62 -85% 17% -17% -26%
P/BV (Trailing) 2.85x 0.94 5.35 2.93 2.98 5.10 0.85 -67% 88% 3% 5%
Dividend Yield (Trailing) 1.88 0.00 10.05 2.54 2.55 5.54 -0.44 -100% 434% 35% 35%
ROE (Trailing) 15.45 13.25 50.00 28.67 29.45 50.15 8.75 -14% 224% 86% 91%
Source: Bloomberg, Reuters Global Fundamentals, IBES CONSENSUS, JPMorgan Quantitative & Derivative Strategy
15
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JPM Q-Profile
PT United Tractors Tbk (INDONESIA / Energy)
As Of: 21-Jul-2017 Quant_Strategy@jpmorgan.com
Local Share Price Current: 28825.00 12 Mth Forward EPS Current: 2027.95
35,000.00 3,000.00
30,000.00 2,500.00
2,000.00
25,000.00
1,500.00
20,000.00
1,000.00
15,000.00
500.00
10,000.00
0.00
5,000.00
-500.00
0.00
-1,000.00
Jun/02
Mar/03
Dec/03
Sep/04
Jun/05
Mar/06
Dec/06
Sep/07
Jun/08
Mar/09
Dec/09
Sep/10
Jun/11
Mar/12
Dec/12
Sep/13
Jun/14
Mar/15
Dec/15
Sep/16
Jun/17
Jun/02
Feb/03
Oct/03
Jun/04
Feb/05
Oct/05
Jun/06
Feb/07
Oct/07
Jun/08
Feb/09
Oct/09
Jun/10
Feb/11
Oct/11
Jun/12
Feb/13
Oct/13
Jun/14
Feb/15
Oct/15
Jun/16
Feb/17
PE (1Yr Forward) Current: 14.2x P/E Relative to Indonesia Index Current: 0.87
25.0x
2.50
20.0x 2.00
15.0x 1.50
10.0x 1.00
5.0x 0.50
0.0x 0.00
Jun/02
Feb/03
Oct/03
Jun/04
Feb/05
Oct/05
Jun/06
Feb/07
Oct/07
Jun/08
Feb/09
Oct/09
Jun/10
Feb/11
Oct/11
Jun/12
Feb/13
Oct/13
Jun/14
Feb/15
Oct/15
Jun/16
Feb/17
Oct/03
Oct/05
Oct/07
Oct/09
Oct/11
Oct/13
Oct/15
Jun/02
Feb/03
Jun/04
Feb/05
Jun/06
Feb/07
Jun/08
Feb/09
Jun/10
Feb/11
Jun/12
Feb/13
Jun/14
Feb/15
Jun/16
Feb/17
Earnings Yield (& Local Bond Yield) Current: 7.04% Dividend Yield (Trailing) Current: 1.95
120% 9.0
12Mth fwd EY Indonesia BY Proxy
8.0
100%
7.0
80% 6.0
5.0
60%
4.0
40% 3.0
2.0
20%
1.0
0% 0.0
Jun/02
Feb/03
Oct/03
Jun/04
Feb/05
Oct/05
Jun/06
Feb/07
Oct/07
Jun/08
Feb/09
Oct/09
Jun/10
Feb/11
Oct/11
Jun/12
Feb/13
Oct/13
Jun/14
Feb/15
Oct/15
Jun/16
Feb/17
Oct/03
Oct/05
Oct/07
Oct/09
Oct/11
Oct/13
Oct/15
Jun/02
Feb/03
Jun/04
Feb/05
Jun/06
Feb/07
Jun/08
Feb/09
Jun/10
Feb/11
Jun/12
Feb/13
Jun/14
Feb/15
Jun/16
Feb/17
ROE (Trailing) Current: 14.28 Price/Book (Value) Current: 2.5x
60.00
8.0x P/B Trailing P/B Forward
50.00 7.0x
6.0x
40.00
5.0x
30.00 4.0x
3.0x
20.00
2.0x
10.00 1.0x
0.0x
0.00
-1.0x
Jun/02
Feb/03
Oct/03
Jun/04
Feb/05
Oct/05
Jun/06
Feb/07
Oct/07
Jun/08
Feb/09
Oct/09
Jun/10
Feb/11
Oct/11
Jun/12
Feb/13
Oct/13
Jun/14
Feb/15
Oct/15
Jun/16
Feb/17
Jun/02
Feb/03
Oct/03
Jun/04
Feb/05
Oct/05
Jun/06
Feb/07
Oct/07
Jun/08
Feb/09
Oct/09
Jun/10
Feb/11
Oct/11
Jun/12
Feb/13
Oct/13
Jun/14
Feb/15
Oct/15
Jun/16
Feb/17
Summary
PT United Tractors Tbk 8074.31 As Of: 21-Jul-17
INDONESIA 7.598386 TICKER UNTR IJ Local Price: 28,825.00
Energy Oil, Gas & Consumable Fuels EPS: 2027.95
Latest Min Max Median Average 2 S.D.+ 2 S.D. - % to Min % to Max % to Med % to Avg
12mth Forward PE 14.21x 0.94 23.02 12.67 11.81 20.98 2.64 -93% 62% -11% -17%
P/BV (Trailing) 2.54x 0.34 6.63 2.45 2.76 5.60 -0.08 -87% 161% -4% 9%
Dividend Yield (Trailing) 1.95 0.00 7.73 2.07 2.11 5.04 -0.82 -100% 296% 6% 8%
ROE (Trailing) 14.28 3.58 50.00 25.84 26.22 49.83 2.61 -75% 250% 81% 84%
Source: Bloomberg, Reuters Global Fundamentals, IBES CONSENSUS, JPMorgan Quantitative & Derivative Strategy
16
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JPM Q-Profile
Jardine Cycle & Carriage Limited (SINGAPORE / Consumer Discretionary)
As Of: 21-Jul-2017 Quant_Strategy@jpmorgan.com
Local Share Price Current: 42.07 12 Mth Forward EPS Current: 2.35
60.00 5.00
50.00 4.00
40.00 3.00
30.00 2.00
20.00 1.00
10.00 0.00
0.00
-1.00
Jun/02
Mar/03
Dec/03
Sep/04
Jun/05
Mar/06
Dec/06
Sep/07
Jun/08
Mar/09
Dec/09
Sep/10
Jun/11
Mar/12
Dec/12
Sep/13
Jun/14
Mar/15
Dec/15
Sep/16
Jun/17
Jun/02
Feb/03
Oct/03
Jun/04
Feb/05
Oct/05
Jun/06
Feb/07
Oct/07
Jun/08
Feb/09
Oct/09
Jun/10
Feb/11
Oct/11
Jun/12
Feb/13
Oct/13
Jun/14
Feb/15
Oct/15
Jun/16
Feb/17
PE (1Yr Forward) Current: 13.1x P/E Relative to Singapore Index Current: 1.05
18.0x
2.00
16.0x 1.80
14.0x 1.60
12.0x 1.40
1.20
10.0x
1.00
8.0x
0.80
6.0x 0.60
4.0x 0.40
2.0x 0.20
0.0x 0.00
Jun/02
Feb/03
Oct/03
Jun/04
Feb/05
Oct/05
Jun/06
Feb/07
Oct/07
Jun/08
Feb/09
Oct/09
Jun/10
Feb/11
Oct/11
Jun/12
Feb/13
Oct/13
Jun/14
Feb/15
Oct/15
Jun/16
Feb/17
Oct/03
Oct/05
Oct/07
Oct/09
Oct/11
Oct/13
Oct/15
Jun/02
Feb/03
Jun/04
Feb/05
Jun/06
Feb/07
Jun/08
Feb/09
Jun/10
Feb/11
Jun/12
Feb/13
Jun/14
Feb/15
Jun/16
Feb/17
Earnings Yield (& Local Bond Yield) Current: 7.64% Dividend Yield (Trailing) Current: 2.30
30% 10.0
12Mth fwd EY Singapore BY Proxy
9.0
25% 8.0
7.0
20%
6.0
15% 5.0
4.0
10%
3.0
5% 2.0
1.0
0% 0.0
Jun/02
Feb/03
Oct/03
Jun/04
Feb/05
Oct/05
Jun/06
Feb/07
Oct/07
Jun/08
Feb/09
Oct/09
Jun/10
Feb/11
Oct/11
Jun/12
Feb/13
Oct/13
Jun/14
Feb/15
Oct/15
Jun/16
Feb/17
Oct/03
Oct/05
Oct/07
Oct/09
Oct/11
Oct/13
Oct/15
Jun/02
Feb/03
Jun/04
Feb/05
Jun/06
Feb/07
Jun/08
Feb/09
Jun/10
Feb/11
Jun/12
Feb/13
Jun/14
Feb/15
Jun/16
Feb/17
ROE (Trailing) Current: 13.40 Price/Book (Value) Current: 2.0x
35.00
4.0x P/B Trailing P/B Forward
30.00 3.5x
25.00 3.0x
20.00 2.5x
2.0x
15.00
1.5x
10.00
1.0x
5.00
0.5x
0.00
0.0x
Jun/02
Feb/03
Oct/03
Jun/04
Feb/05
Oct/05
Jun/06
Feb/07
Oct/07
Jun/08
Feb/09
Oct/09
Jun/10
Feb/11
Oct/11
Jun/12
Feb/13
Oct/13
Jun/14
Feb/15
Oct/15
Jun/16
Feb/17
Jun/02
Feb/03
Oct/03
Jun/04
Feb/05
Oct/05
Jun/06
Feb/07
Oct/07
Jun/08
Feb/09
Oct/09
Jun/10
Feb/11
Oct/11
Jun/12
Feb/13
Oct/13
Jun/14
Feb/15
Oct/15
Jun/16
Feb/17
Summary
Jardine Cycle & Carriage Limited 12509.02 As Of: 21-Jul-17
SINGAPORE 7.716887 TICKER JCNC SP EQUITY Local Price: 42.07
Consumer Discretionary Distributors EPS: 2.35
Latest Min Max Median Average 2 S.D.+ 2 S.D. - % to Min % to Max % to Med % to Avg
12mth Forward PE 13.09x 3.51 15.94 10.57 9.91 15.97 3.86 -73% 22% -19% -24%
P/BV (Trailing) 2.02x 0.89 3.49 2.01 2.03 3.33 0.73 -56% 73% 0% 1%
Dividend Yield (Trailing) 2.30 0.90 8.63 2.72 2.80 5.12 0.49 -61% 276% 18% 22%
ROE (Trailing) 13.40 12.53 30.02 20.17 20.30 30.72 9.89 -6% 124% 51% 52%
Source: Bloomberg, Reuters Global Fundamentals, IBES CONSENSUS, JPMorgan Quantitative & Derivative Strategy
17
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Analyst Certification: The research analyst(s) denoted by an AC on the cover of this report certifies (or, where multiple research
analysts are primarily responsible for this report, the research analyst denoted by an AC on the cover or within the document
individually certifies, with respect to each security or issuer that the research analyst covers in this research) that: (1) all of the views
expressed in this report accurately reflect his or her personal views about any and all of the subject securities or issuers; and (2) no part of
any of the research analyst's compensation was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views
expressed by the research analyst(s) in this report. For all Korea-based research analysts listed on the front cover, they also certify, as per
KOFIA requirements, that their analysis was made in good faith and that the views reflect their own opinion, without undue influence or
intervention.
Important Disclosures
Market Maker/ Liquidity Provider: J.P. Morgan Securities plc and/or an affiliate is a market maker and/or liquidity provider in
securities issued by Astra International, United Tractors, Jardine Cycle & Carriage Ltd.
Client: J.P. Morgan currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following entity(ies) as clients: Astra International, United
Tractors, Jardine Cycle & Carriage Ltd.
Client/Non-Investment Banking, Securities-Related: J.P. Morgan currently has, or had within the past 12 months, the following
entity(ies) as clients, and the services provided were non-investment-banking, securities-related: United Tractors.
Non-Investment Banking Compensation: J.P. Morgan has received compensation in the past 12 months for products or services
other than investment banking from United Tractors.
Other Significant Financial Interests: J.P. Morgan owns a position of 1 million USD or more in the debt securities of Astra
International, United Tractors, Jardine Cycle & Carriage Ltd.
MSCI: The MSCI sourced information is the exclusive property of MSCI. Without prior written permission of MSCI, this information
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Astra International (ASII.JK, ASII IJ) Price Chart Date Rating Share Price Price Target
(Rp) (Rp)
20-Jun-09 OW 2205 2800
OW Rp3,700
OW Rp5,500 27-Jul-09 OW 2760 2900
13,950
27-Oct-09 OW 3295 3700
OW Rp2,900
OW Rp4,500 OW Rp7,700 N Rp7,000 N Rp7,500
OW Rp9,200 26-Feb-10 OW 3685 4100
11,625
16-Apr-10 OW 4345 4500
OW Rp2,800
OW Rp4,100
OWOWRp6,300
Rp6,000
N Rp6,000
UW Rp5,200
UW Rp6,100
OWOW
Rp8,600
Rp8,900 OW Rp8,500
OW OW
Rp7,200
Rp8,000
OW Rp8,900
9,300 21-Jul-10 OW 4980 5500
Price(Rp) 29-Oct-10 OW 5645 6300
6,975 08-Feb-11 OW 4950 6000
24-May-11 N 5920 6000
4,650 07-Oct-11 UW 6325 5200
28-Feb-12 UW 6870 6100
2,325 08-Feb-13 OW 7550 8600
28-May-13 OW 7000 8900
0 30-Jul-13 OW 6450 7700
Jun Dec Jun Dec Jun Dec 27-Feb-15 OW 8150 8500
09 10 12 13 15 16
27-Apr-15 N 7875 7000
Source: Bloomberg and J.P. Morgan; price data adjusted for stock splits and dividends. 11-Dec-15 OW 6225 7200
Initiated coverage Jun 20, 2009.
18-Apr-16 OW 7525 8000
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Jardine Cycle & Carriage Ltd (JCYC.SI, JCNC SP) Price Chart
95
Source: Bloomberg and J.P. Morgan; price data adjusted for stock splits and dividends.
Initiated coverage Oct 02, 2012.
The chart(s) show J.P. Morgan's continuing coverage of the stocks; the current analysts may or may not have covered it over the entire
period.
J.P. Morgan ratings or designations: OW = Overweight, N= Neutral, UW = Underweight, NR = Not Rated
Explanation of Equity Research Ratings, Designations and Analyst(s) Coverage Universe:
J.P. Morgan uses the following rating system: Overweight [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will outperform the
average total return of the stocks in the analysts (or the analysts teams) coverage universe.] Neutral [Over the next six to twelve
months, we expect this stock will perform in line with the average total return of the stocks in the analysts (or the analysts teams)
coverage universe.] Underweight [Over the next six to twelve months, we expect this stock will underperform the average total return of
the stocks in the analysts (or the analysts teams) coverage universe.] Not Rated (NR): J.P. Morgan has removed the rating and, if
applicable, the price target, for this stock because of either a lack of a sufficient fundamental basis or for legal, regulatory or policy
reasons. The previous rating and, if applicable, the price target, no longer should be relied upon. An NR designation is not a
recommendation or a rating. In our Asia (ex-Australia) and U.K. small- and mid-cap equity research, each stocks expected total return is
compared to the expected total return of a benchmark country market index, not to those analysts coverage universe. If it does not appear
in the Important Disclosures section of this report, the certifying analysts coverage universe can be found on J.P. Morgans research
website, www.jpmorganmarkets.com.
Coverage Universe: Srinath, Aditya: Astra International (ASII.JK), British American Tobacco (M) Bhd (BATO.KL), D&L Industries
(DNL.PS), Indofood (INDF.JK), Indofood CBP (ICBP.JK), Jardine Cycle & Carriage Ltd (JCYC.SI), Jardine Matheson Holdings Ltd
(JARD.SI), Jardine Strategic Holdings Ltd (JSH.SI), Jollibee Foods Corp. (JFC.PS), LT Group, Inc. (LTG.PS), Matahari Department
Store (LPPF.JK), PT Gudang Garam Tbk (GGRM.JK), PT Hanjaya Mandala Sampoerna Tbk (HMSP.JK), PT Mitra Adiperkasa, Tbk
(MAPI.JK), Puregold Price Club (PGOLD.PS), Robinsons Retail Holdings (RRHI.PS), Unilever Indonesia Tbk (UNVR.JK), United
Tractors (UNTR.JK), Universal Robina Corp (URC.PS)
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International Financial Centre - Building 3, Level 7, PO Box 506551, Dubai, UAE.
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This document is being provided for the exclusive use of EDI SULISTIYANTO at PT KRESNA SEKURITAS
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