Climate Change: Basic Issues

Earth’s climate varies naturally – because of a variety of

cosmological and geological processes

“Climate change” refers to an additional, and relatively rapid, change

induced by human actions

AGW – Anthropogenic Global Warming

The additional change – several degrees C within a century – will

disrupt the foundations of life on Earth

Ecosystems and life in general have evolved within a narrow band of

climatic-environmental conditions
Today's major
environmental issues

Global Warming – rise in average global temperature

Global Dimming – reduction in amount of heat reaching the earth

Greenhouse Effect – trapping of sun's rays, thereby heating up

lower layers of the atmosphere
Observed Climate Change

Resulting primarily through:

Industrialization

Urbanization

Deforestation

Land-use changes

Global mean temperature has increased by 0.740C

Global average sea level increased

At avg. rate of 1.8 mm/yr over 1961 to 2003

About 3.1 mm/yr over 1993 to 2003

Cold days, nights and frost are less frequent

Hot days, hot nights and heat waves are more frequent
Climate Change: the “debate”

Greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations are increasing

GHGs are

CO2

9-26%

GWP – 1; 278ppb  365ppb

Methane (CH4)

4-9%

GWP – 72; 700ppb  1745ppb

Nitrous Oxide (N2O)

GWP – 289; 270ppb  314ppb

Ozone

3-7%

Water Vapour

36-72%

GHGs affect the climate system

World average temperature has risen relatively fast over the past 30
years

Sea-level rise is gradually accelerating

Many temperature-sensitive systems/processes have changed over
the past two decades
Risks to Small Island-States

Coastal flooding

Amplified storm surges

Damaged coastal infrastructure

Roads

Salination of island fresh-water

Impaired crop production

Population displacement

Diverse health risks

Nutrition

Infection

Mental health
GHG: Coming Decades

The International Energy Agency predicts that the

increase in greenhouse gas emissions from 2000 to 2030 in China
alone will almost equal the increase from the entire industrialized
world.

China is the world's second largest emitter of such gases, after the
United States – even though China's per-person emissions are, for
example, still only one-eighth of those in the United States.
Some Observations
Global-average surface temperature increased by about 0.6 ºC over 20th century
1990s warmest decade and 1998 warmest year in last 1000 years in Northern
Hemisphere
Over last 50 years night-time minimum temperatures increased by about 0.2 ºC
per decade
10% reduction in snow cover/ ice since late 1960s
Reduction of about two weeks in annual duration of lake and river ice over 20th
century
Widespread retreat of mountain glaciers during 20th century
Northern Hemisphere spring and summer sea-ice extent decreased by 10-15%
since 1950s
40% decline in late summer Arctic sea-ice thickness in recent decades
Global-average sea level has increased by 10-20 cm during 20th century
0.5-1% per decade increase in Northern Hemisphere mid-latitude precipitation
during 20th century
2-4% increase in frequency of heavy precipitation events in Northern Hemisphere
mid- and high-latitudes over latter half of 20th century
Future climate change projections

Very likely that hot extremes, heat waves, and heavy precipitation events
will continue to become more frequent

Likely that future tropical cyclones will become

more intense

with larger peak wind speeds

more heavy precipitation

Extra-tropical storm tracks projected to move poleward with consequent

changes in wind, precipitation, and temperature patterns
Mitigation until 2030

For stabilization of GHG concentration in the atmosphere, emissions would
need to peak and decline thereafter

The lower the stabilization level, the more quickly this peak and decline
would need to occur

Mitigation efforts over the next two to three decades will have a large
impact on opportunities to achieve lower stabilization levels

Stabilization can be achieved by deployment of a portfolio of technologies

Appropriate and effective incentives required

Potential mitigation
technologies and practices

Sectors & Potential activities

Energy

Cleaner Fuel use, Alternative energy sources, Fuel switch

Transport

Vehicle efficiency, hybrid vehicles, biofuels, modal shift

Buildings

Efficient lighting, appliances, ACs, improved insulation, solarheating and cooling,
alternatives of Fluorinated gases

Industry

Heat & power recovery, recycling, emission control

Agriculture

Land mgmt, restoration of degraded lands, improved cultivation techniques,
improved fertilizer applications

Forests

Forest mgmt, reduced deforestation, Forestry

Waste

LF methane recovery, waste incineration and energy recovery, composting,
recycling & waste minimization
Carbon markets: Opportunities

Kyoto Protocol – emission reduction

commitments for industrialized countries

Provided for flexibility mechanisms for emissions

reduction

Evolution of carbon markets

Deployment, diffusion of clean technologies

At sufficiently high price of carbon large shifts of

investments into low carbon technologies can be

expected
Kyoto Protocol

Protocol of UNFCCC (UN Framework Convention on Climate Change)

Adopted on 11th Dec, 1997 at Kyoto

Ratified by 187 states – US has not and accounts for 36% of emissions

China, India and other developing nations not included

Aim

Stabilization of GHGs

At levels that will prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference

How?

Annex-1 countries (37 industrialized nations)

Reduce gas emissions by 5.2% over 1990 levels

Flexible mechanisms

Emissions Trading

CDM (Clean Development mechanism)

Joint Implementation
Copenhagen

UNFCCC meet in Copenhagen in Dec, 2009

Copenhagen Accord

India, China, US, Brazil, South Africa

Temperature increase to be limited to 2 degrees

Most countries have indicated emission reduction targets

No binding agreement has been signed

India, China and US have indicated cuts in GHGs

1990 or 2005 levels

Purely Voluntary commitments

Non binding

Danish Text

2 degree cap

Developing countries adverse reaction – Collusion by Developed nations

Next session in Mexico in 2010


Climate Change in Pictures &

Graphs
The Met.Office Hadley Centre

ATMOSPHERE

Terrestrial
radiation
Clouds
Greenhouse gases and aerosol
Solar
radiation
Ice- sheets Precipitation
snow Sea-ice

Biomass OCEAN
LAND

THE CLIMATE
SYSTEM
Kilimanjaro 1970
 Ice on Kilimanjaro
15
Area (km 2)

10

0
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020
Year
Kilimanjaro 2000
1.4
Number of Earths
1.2 used by humanity

1.0
One Earth is available
0.8 (The planet’s total bio-
capacity = 1.0)
0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0
1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s
Based on Wackernagel et al, 2002
 Changes in environmental indicators, 1750 - 2000

Atmos CO2 conc Atmos N2O conc Atmos CH4 conc

Atmos ozone loss Av surface temp (NH) Climate disasters

Fully exploited fisheries Coastal shrimp farms Coastal N2 flux

Loss of trop forest, woodland Domesticated land Global biodiversity

From: Steffen et al. In press 2004

 Foreign direct
Populatio Total real GDP investment
n

Damming of rivers Water use Fertiliser consumption

Urban population MacDonalds Restaurants

Motor vehicles International tourism

From: Steffen et al. 2003

 20 This presents a rate-of-change
Average Global IPCC
problem for (2001) estimates
many natural
19
Temperature (OC) a 1.4-5.8 oC increase
systems/processes
High
18

17
Central estimate = 2.5 oC
(plus increased variability)
16
Low

15

14 Band of historical
climatic variability
13
1860 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100
Year
 Sea-level rise over coming centuries
Sea-Level Rise, over the coming millennium
following 70 years of excess greenhouse gas emissions
1.5

Total sea level rise

Sea-level rise (m)

1.0

Ocean Expansion

Ice-melt
0.5

Greenhouse gas emissions (“super-Kyoto” action)

0.0
200 400 600 800

Peaking in 2050 Time from start (years)

IPCC,
IPCC 20012001
 Modulating Health
Healtheffects
Effects
influences
Temperature-related
Temperature -related
illness and death
Extreme weather-
Extreme weatherstorms,
related (floods, -
related health
etc.) health effects
effects
Human
exposures Air pollution
pollution-related
-related
health effects
Regional weather Microbial changes:
Contamination
Water and
Water and food-borne
food -borne
changes pathways
Climate Contamination paths diseases
diseases
Change Transmission dynamics
Transmission
•Heat waves Vector -borne
borne and
and
dynamics Vector
•Extreme weather rodent borne diseases
rodent - borne diseases
•Temperature
••Precipitation
Changes in agro- Effects of food and
ecosystems, hydrology water shortages
•Sea-level rise

Socioeconomic and Mental, nutritional,

demographic disruption infectious-disease and
other effects
Global average temperature (oC) over the past millennium
Source: Pew Center on Global Climate Change 34
 Milder Winters, Much Hotter
Summers

Source: Dr. Donald Boesch, University of Maryland 35



The Skeptics
 Their Fig. 3: High Latitude Temperature and Solar Variability

Uses outdated
estimate of solar
irradiance
(see AR4,WG1,Ch2)

Ignores attribution to
solar forcing based on
physical computations
(see AR4,WG1,Ch 6,9)

Does not understand

(or misrepresents)
relationship between
CO2 increase, forcing
change, and Earth’s
response
(see AR4,WG1,Ch 6, 8)
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Skeptics
 Temperature Reconstruction?

How much warmer was it? Not 1995 report - 1990 report: A schematic sketch!

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Skeptics
 Other Contentions
“Model’s can’t forecast weather beyond a few days
– so they can’t show climate decades ahead.”

Model projections of
global temperature

(IPCC AR4 – Ch. 1)

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Skeptics
 Other Contentions
“Climate has changed without humans. It’s all natural cycles.”

Simulations
with natural
forcings only

(IPCC AR4 – Ch. 9)

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Skeptics
 Other Contentions
“In the 1970s scientists said an ice age was coming. Now they’ve flip-
flopped ”

Global Temperature Indicator from Ice Cores

[Thousands of yr]
(IPCC AR4 – Ch. 6)

Interglacial Periods New Ice Age Starting?

(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Skeptics
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Skeptics
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt
(Mt/Ag/EnSc/EnSt 404/504 - Global Change) Skeptics
Alternate Explanations for GW

Solar Irradiance

Sun is most active in the last 60 years of the last 1000 years

Cosmic rays

High Sun output  Low Cosmic rays  Low Cloud Cover  Higher
Temperatures

Land use
Solar Activity vs. Global
Temperatures
• Solar Irradiance
Solar Irradiance vs.
Temperatures