1 Universidade federal de Campina Grande

2 Programa de ps-graduao em engenharia civil e ambiental

3 Gesto Ambiental

7 Avaliao: desenvolver artigo sobre os temas propostos em sala;

8 Tema: Sistemas de Suporte a Deciso;

9 Revista para publicao: PLOS ONE;

10 Web site da revista: http://journals.plos.org/plosone/ ;

11 Aluno: Eduardo Antonio Guimares Tenrio (eduardo_agt123@hotmail.com);

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21 Campina Grande, maio de 2017

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28 Decision support system in environmental management an

29 overview and application examples

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32 Eduardo Antonio Guimares Tenrio1

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36 Federal University of Campina Grande, Campina Grande, Paraiba, Brazil

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40 eduardo_agt123@hotmail.com

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44 Abstract
45 Environmental decision support systems are software designed to help manager to find

46 the best solution for an environmental problem. That systems work through databases filled

47 with many kinds of data and sophisticated analyze process to research out the best solution or

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48 solutions to a proposed problem. Support systems decision has been applied intensely in the

49 least two decades, some good examples are the Colorado Decision Support System and the

50 Mulino Decision Support System, less knew but not less important the Semi-Arid Integrated

51 Model is also an emergent example of support system application. Provide a basic

52 understanding of what is and how works an environmental decision support systems, as well

53 give examples of application is the main objective of this paper.

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55

56 Introduction
57 The development of human kind bring perturbation to the equilibrium of environmental

58 systems. The high population associated with an industrial and consumer standard of life has

59 been changing the configuration of the planet. To the earth keep being able to support life

60 mankind must improve the relationship with natural resources by taken decisions that lead to

61 sustainability and preservation (1).

62 To help manager to find and choose the best solution for a complex problem the decision

63 support system (DSS) has been idealized as a tool able to get, processes and analyze data as

64 well returns solutions as outcome. The environmental decision support system (EDSS) is a DSS

65 applied to environmental issues, as water management. Therefore the EDSS are structured with

66 components focused to natural resources manager as geographical information systems (2).

67 The development of the DSS started in 1950 with the study of organizational decision

68 making at the Carnegie Institute of Technology associated with the technical framework studied

69 at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology in the beginning of 1960. Along the years the

70 DSS has been applied to many functions and sectors of society. In 1985 the group decision

71 support system was created to boost the ability of team problem solve, in sequence the EDSS

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72 was applied as executive information system to improve the decision process in personal or

73 business level (3).

74 The EDSS are fundamental tools to improve the efficiency of environmental decision,

75 due to this fact a basic comprehension, of what is an EDSS and how this running, is demanded

76 to environmental professionals, scientists and students. Aiming to meet this demand this paper

77 major goal is provide to the reader a didactic approach of the concept of EDSS and the running

78 of this tool. Three examples of EDSS applications are related and discussed in the article to

79 embassy and demonstrate the relevancy and importance of EDSS.

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81 Material and methods

82 This paper focus on describe in a clear and simple way what is a EDSS, how the EDSS

83 works and some examples of application of this technology. The description is, initially,

84 focused in the generical definition of a EDSS and this propose. Major aspects of the software

85 as its classification according boundaries problems and users demands, and the decision

86 methodology are addressed in sequence.

87 The engineering of the EDSS and how it works is presented in this paper, focusing in

88 the conceptual ideas of the system. The operation of the EDSS is also explained focusing in

89 the steps of processing. To illustrate the EDSS uses and show how that system is important and

90 relevant at environmental manager some examples have been described, those application

91 covers the kinds of EDSS describes in the paper as well approach some particular issues.

92 The research to build that paper was mad by web search focusing in academic articles,

93 books and thesis and official websites of EDSS.

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 97 Results and discussion

98 What is an environmental decision support system

99 The complexity of environmental systems turns any decision about that systems,

100 complex as well. The best decision request an integration and manipulation of a great quantity

101 of data from different disciplines (1). Much of the difficulty to do a good environmental

102 decision comes from the special distributions of the system, the largest areas englobed for a

103 system implies in large number and types of data, that must be managed to research out the best

104 decision (4). The decision support system (DSS) is a tool that collect, processes and analyze

105 data, that instrument raises as a powerful tool to help the manager to improve the efficiency in

106 the decision processes (5).

107 In the context of environmental management, the DSS are called environmental decision

108 support system (EDSS). Today that systems are represented by software systems that englobe

109 model simulations, geographical information system, database about many disciplines, expert

110 opinions and multi-criterial decision making (MCDM). EDSS purposes is find the best solution

111 for an environmental problem (6,7). There are two great kinds of EDSS, the problem specific

112 EDSS and the situation and problem specific EDSS. First kind is driving to solve a specific

113 problem in any region of the world, so it is much more passive to be modificated than the second

114 type. Second type is specifically to a problem in a given region, therefore it is less flexible (7).

115 The EDSS are used for many professional, this implying a specific EDSS for each kind

116 of user, other way to classify the system is according to the user goal. To scientist, the EDSS is

117 used to analyses different scenarios and evaluated its outcome, so it demands an EDSS able to

118 deal with large amounts of information and great capacity of modification and reorganization

119 (7). For environmental manager, EDSS must be focused in solve a specific problem

120 predetermined. The last user are the environmental stakeholder, for then, EDSS should assume

121 a form more didactic and show the consequences of the decisions (7).
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122 The decision technique inside an EDSS makes that system a prominent MCDM, some

123 issues as incompatible unities and ranking of alternatives are common to both (6). Therefore, it

124 is coherent suppose that and EDSS englobes and use at some moment of its process a MCDM.

125 Methodology of decision of an EDSS, or the MCDM used, can be classified as multiple

126 attribution decision make or multiple objective decision making (6). In the first type some

127 alternatives are confronted with a group of requirements, the alternative that fits best in the

128 requirements is selected. Second type there is not alternatives to be evaluated, however, there

129 is a sort of functions subordinated to a group of constrains, the best solution provide for the

130 functions is take as the optimum solution for the problem (6).

131 As have been showed the EDSS can be applied in restrict ways or broadly ways and it

132 is also versatile, adapting to the user needs. The capacity of to hold, manage and process lots of

133 data allowed that software to give the most probably outcome of a decision. About the decision-

134 making method, this author recognizes that there are other kinds of methodology, but as the

135 usual is the multi-criterial decision making, just that was addressed. The methodology of

136 decision is a directed linked to the efficiency of the EDSS and to the coherency of the proposed

137 solution. At the light of the information presented before, EDSS can be define as a tool that by

138 techniques of decision allowed fast acquisition, comparison and analyze between different

139 kinds of data and help managers to take decision at the optimal condition in the environmental

140 management.

141

142 How an EDSS works

143 Some specific characteristics of EDSS are shown next, those are fundamental to

144 understand the running of that software. The dynamics of the environmental systems imply that

145 this systems are in constant transformation, therefore the EDSS should model the environmental

146 process as continue, but some specific process must be taken as discreet events to make the

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147 evaluation in a given space and time easy and fast (7). The decisions support systems when

148 applied to environmental questions must be able to deal with spatial coverage, it means that the

149 EDSS must deal with the geographical distribution of data and events, it also should be able to

150 limited analyses accord geographical boundary and it respective outcomes (4). As mentioned

151 before the EDSS should be multi-disciplinary to deal with the complexity of environmental

152 systems (7). Other important point about the characteristic of EDSS is the probabilistic and

153 statistic approach, as the data used to emulate problems have uncertainties, results as well will

154 not be deterministic but probabilistic. There is some deterministic approaches but to it the

155 system assumes that the data has not uncertainties (7). The figure 1 shows the simple diagram

156 of the principal components of an EDSS.

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158 Figure 1. Diagram of principal components of an EDSS, adapted of Poch. M. at all (2003)

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160 The implementation of an EDSS can be done by computer languages, scientific calculus

161 tools and visual simulation (7). Each of these tools has a purpose in the architecture of the

162 software, there are other technologies applied, but the roots of the system are made by the set

163 described (7). The EDSS architecture are based at a loop, user gives an input, a problem, and

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164 this problem is processed and solved many times until the solution research a satisfactory point

165 (1,3). The figure 2 shows a flowchart of the EDSS architectures.

166
167 Figure 2. Flowchart of the EDSS, adapted of Poch. M. at all (2003)

168 As can be seed in the figure 1 the solution of a problem by a EDSS starts by inputting

169 a problem, the second step consist in the ways the software is going to get information about

170 the problem, today many information can be get in internet, other ways are input data or a

171 previous database. The third step is the cognitive step, date is going to be processed and the

172 outcome of this step is information and predictions about the problem (1,3,8). At this point the

173 artificial intelligence (AI) have been providing high advancements in the cognitive capacity of

174 the DSS (8). The fourth step is also a cognitive step, at this point the outcomes are get together

175 to build a solution, or many solutions, to the problem. The fifth step is the presentation of the

176 solution, or the solutions. At least there is the judgment of the solution by the user if it is take

177 as satisfactory the process is finished but if not the loop is restarted and will be restarted until a

178 satisfactory solution is find.

179 As described before the running of a EDSS is based at interactions of some steps. Each

180 of those steps are deep developed inside a EDSS architecture and are hot topics of search and

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181 development across the world. It is beyond this paper explain how each step works. However,

182 it is clear that the EDSS technology is supported in the capacity to hold and get great amounts

183 of data, by cognitive ways process that data and by advanced interfaces able to show the results

184 in a comprehensible and easy way to final-user.

185 Applications

186 Around the word the EDSS have been applied to improve the quality of environmental

187 decisions and consequently improve the quality of the environment itself. This paper shows

188 three cases of EDSS application, first Colorado Decision Support System (CDSS), second

189 Mulino Decision Support System (MDSS) and third Semi-Arid Integrated Model (SIM).

190 The CDSS is an EDSS under continual development by the Colorado Water

191 Conservation Board and the Colorado division of water Resources. CDSS was designing to

192 provide for the users a precisely and friendly database, tools and models to evaluated water

193 resources decisions and promote the knowledge sharing between the government and the

194 society. The ultimate goal of the CDSS is provide information to support the decisions about

195 the management of the Colorados state watersheds (9).

196 CDSS is based at the following components. Hybrid-Base, a database that keeps

197 historical and current water resources data, streamflow records, climate data and water rights.

198 Spatial database, this database gets irrigated perimeters, points of stream flow measurement,

199 climate stations, rivers, cities and highway. The StateMod, it is a software designed to water

200 allocation simulation, available online to anyone. The stateCU is a tool created to estimation of

201 agriculture water consumption using databases cited above to do predictions of water demand

202 and return flow in agriculture. The figure 3 shows how the CDSS works to provide decision

203 support.

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204
205 Figure 3. CDSS Components, get from www.cdss.state.us

206
207 The CDSS is an example of EDSS applied to a limited region and purpose, therefore it

208 can be understood as a situation and problem specific EDSS. That EDSS was developed and

209 keeps being developed to help water resources managers from Colorado state to improve their

210 decisions and get the best outcome. CDSS is continued feed with new data and can be accessed

211 and used online, this is a great improvement. Due to it the system gets more reliability, as the

212 data is actual and plays an important role to turn the water resource manager accessible to

213 ordinary people.

214 The MDSS is a decision support system that have been developed to improve the water

215 management in European Union (EU). MDSS is designed to fit the requirements of the Water

216 Framework Directivities (WFT), what makes the software a legal tool to any manager in EU

217 countries. This system was developed with focus at support authorities in charge of water

218 management in EU, however it can be used for any water manager. The system is based at

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219 driving, force, state, impact, state, response ( DPSIR) framework, this technology allowed the

220 MDSS to provide a better understanding of the problem in study (10).

221 The DPSIR framework can be comprehended by the following logical path. The driving

222 forces (D) are linked to society goals and priorities and demographic growth. The effects of the

223 driving forces are the pressure (P), as examples there is pollution, it affects the water resources

224 in quality and quantity. The changes created by the pressure are represented by the state of the

225 water resources (S). The outcomes of state changes are represented by the impacts (I) in the

226 DPSIR framework. The reaction to impacts are the results (R), it is the final outcome of the

227 framework, of course the manager must validated the result proposed by the system (10).

228 The MDSS use multi-criterial analyses (MCA) approach to research out the solution to

229 a proposed problem. This methodology was selected due to WFD and ability of MCA to deal

230 with non-use values variables. The MDSS is also equipped with geographical information

231 system and many hydrological models. That tools make the MDSS able to support water

232 manager along EU countries (10).

233 As showed the MDSS was developed to deal with water management decisions, unlike

234 CDSS it is not restricted to a specific location, despite the fact that the software is built over the

235 WDF legislation. Therefore, it can be understood as a problem specific EDSS if the legal

236 restriction is not considerate.

237 The SIM is and EDSS built in a modular structure, each modulo contemplated one

238 discipline. The great changeless of that design approach is to make each modulo compatible

239 with the other because the unities and dimensions used change accord the modulo. To deal with

240 this problem all modulus is integrated by a common framework that, between other

241 applications, makes odulus compatible among then self (11).

242 The SIM was developed focusing in the welfare state of rural societies, that communities

243 are strongly dependent of crops and livestock consequently water resources, therefore those

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244 people are hard affected for water shortage. The system was designed to works in a specific

245 region, the states of Cear and Piau in Brazil, it is also applied to a specific situation, water

246 management in rural communities (11).

247 The SIM is composed for the following modules, climate, water supply, water demand,

248 soil condition, crop yield, agro-economy, demography and migration. That modules aboard the

249 major subjects to analyze the situation of rural communities and are able to provide orientation

250 to managers about what to do to improve the life of that society and how to deal with water

251 scarcity. The goal of the software is help the authorities to choose the best way to boost life

252 quality and water use in the region specified (11).

253 SIM is a situation and problem specific EDSS, it is limited to geographical boundaries

254 and application. Despite the MDSS and CDSS it is a software with a clear goal, improve rural

255 life conduction through water management, it makes the SIM a good example of specific

256 application of EDSS.

257

258 Conclusion
259 The development of the EDSS was boosted in the last years because the great amount

260 of data that environmental managers have to deal. As showed before, environmental decisions

261 englobes many sectors of knowledge, therefore the data used to support decisions are from

262 many kinds as spatial data, historical series, statistic data among other types. When the great

263 amount of data is combined with the high kind variability a computer-information system was,

264 in the moment, the best alternative to manage and manipulate that data in the way to research

265 out the best decision to environmental issues.

266 The EDSS are in constantly development, as showed in the example of CDSS the data

267 to support decisions are constantly created, the legal regulations are also being improved

268 constantly, the MDSS is an example, its legal regulation are linked to WFD policies that are in

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269 constant improvement. Therefore, an EDSS is never ended, it is always in developing to satisfy

270 new requestees of legislation and adequate itself to the new environmental and social

271 configuration.

272 Other relevant point about the EDSS are implementation of MCD approach and artificial

273 intelligence. These new ways to deal and to process data allowed the EDSS to attain a level of

274 efficiency that makes this tool very helpful. The statistic and probabilistic approach are an

275 improvement that also deserve highlight, those technics allowed the system to give more than

276 one alternative and to rank it.

277 The EDSS are today a tool that improves the capacity of managers to take the best

278 decision. The high process power of that software allowed to research out the best decision

279 through manipulation of many kinds and a great amount of data. Despite, the ultimate decision

280 keeps being from the jug, the water resources manager, because the EDSS is not, yet, able to

281 deal with empirical knowledge and human experience and expertise. However, the system

282 fulfills its propose to give the manager a high-quality support to take the best decision.

283

284 Acknowledgments
285 The author thanks the National Council for Scientific and Technological Development

286 (CNPQ) to support this research.

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