Basic Hydrology Ppts

Introduction
to
Hydrology
Hydrology
Hydro Water Logy logical study
Science of water
Deals with study of:
Circulation
Occurrence
Collection
Distribution of water of the earth and earths atmosphere
Concerned with:
Water in streams and lakes
Rainfall and snowfall
Snow and ice on the land and water occurring below earths
surface in the pores of the soil and rocks
Contd
Hydrology is an interpretation Science
For which we require data
Because we cannot create water
We can measure, analyze, model and predict the
process stochastic processes
Hence HYDROLOGY becomes data intensive science
Thus it is study of Hydrological Cycle and

also study of Hydro-illogical cycle
Latest Advance is
study from micro level to macro level
Local level, regional level and global level
Classification
Scientific Hydrology: study concerned with
academic aspects
Engineering or Applied Hydrology: study

concerned with engineering application
(i) Estimation of water resources
(ii) The study of processes such as precipitation,
runoff, evapotranspiration and their interaction
(iii) The study of problems such as floods and
droughts and strategies to combat them
Classification
of hydrology
according to
its
association
with other
branches
Classification
of hydrology
according to
method of
solution
History of Hydrology
Hydrological Science:
1000 B.C Plato and Aristotle
Marcus (during Christ period)
First person who talked about ground water and
related ground water to rainfall
Chinese
800 - 1000 B.C started measuring rainfall
Indians
Measured rainfall during 400 B.C mentioned in
Vedas
Contd
19th Century
study of various process in hydrological cycle
Dalton (1802)
Gave law of evaporation
Hagen-Poiseuille (1839)
Theory of capillary flow
Mulvansey (1850)
Rational formula for flood peaks
Ryves (1884), Dickens (1865), Inglish(1930)
Empirical formula for peak flood estimation
Darcys (1856)
Flow through porous media (ground water flow equation)
Contd
Ripple (1883)
Capacity requirements of a dam
Green Ampt (1911)
What is infiltration and how it varies
Horton (1930)
Introduced equation for infiltration
Richardson (1931)
Governing equation for infiltration in terms of
physical quantities
Hazen (1914)
Probabilistic analysis of flood peaks
Contd
Sherman (1932)
Invented Unit Hydrograph theory
Bernard (1935)
Distribution graphs
Snyder (1938)
Synthetic Unit hydrographs
Gumbel (1941)
Prediction of flood and flood peaks
Penman (1948)
Equation for Evapotranspiration
Hurst (1951)
Peak flow and persistence the events are repeating in
the same pattern in each year is called persistence
Nash (1957)
Linear reservoir theory to derive Instantaneous Unit
Hydrographs
.
Later on mathematical models rather than conceptual
models
Hydrologic Cycle
Schematic representation of
Hydrologic Cycle
Important Processes Sub-surface flow

Precipitation Ground water flow
Runoff Abstractions
Infiltration Stream flow
Evaporation
Evapotranspiration
Global Hydrological Cycle
Earth system hydrological cycle
Hydrological cycle in the land system
Some of the Problems with
Hydrological Cycle
1. Short Circuit
Some process will pass through another one
without going through all the process
Rain on sea and ocean ????
2. Time of occurrence of each process

This is controlled by climatic conditions
If the process are not persistence then very difficult
to estimate or predict
3. Intensity and frequency of each process

All are time dependent
Some process occurs frequently causes for flood
and drought
Some process occurs in cyclic pattern and trend
Hydrological Systems
Prior to 1970 each process are considered
as independent process
Later introduced the concept of systems
approach
Hydrological model studies has been
introduced
to know more details about each process and
their interactions
Systems approach
System
A system is composed of a large number of components each of
which may or may not serve a different purpose but all of which
contribute to a common purpose or goal
Input SYSTEM Output
Systematic study
System design System analysis System synthesis

Systems approach (Contd)
System Design
System components are to be identified
Interactions are needed to be defined
System Analysis
System components are fixed
Aim is selecting the best result
System Synthesis
Combining the elements to achieve finest level of
performance
MODELS
Characteristic representation of the prototype
Scale up or scale down models
Purpose is to select the components and to find the
relationship
TYPES
Iconic models
Physical models
Analogue models
Mathematical models
Introduction
Definition
Prototype - Model
Physical model to study the discharge over a
spillway
Complete river physical model study - Los angels river
Physical model study on Jump formation downstream of a spillway
Model study to study the effect of discharge from a spillway
Physical model study on Dam break analysis
Large scale GIS model to study large area details
Sample Satellite imageries of Tsunami-
Tsunami- large scale data
base management studies
Models in Hydrology
Based On Model type
1. Physical Process Conceptual Models Empirical Models
2. Values Deterministic Probabilistic Stochastic Fuzzy
3. Based on
Stationary Non-stationary
Process
4. Geometry (or) Lumped Distributed (geometric distribution

Space probabilistic distribution)
5. Relationship of Linear Model Non-linear Model

Variable
6. Time (Day, Hr., Time Based Event Based

Month, Year)
7. Based on Single variate Multivariate

Variable Used
8. Based on Single Site Multisite

generation
Combination of models
SC SE DC DE
SSC NSSCC SSE NSSE SDC NSDC SDE NSDE
LSSC DSSC
LLSSC NLLSSC
SC Model Nash Model

SE Model ARMA, ARIMA. IUH by least square
DC Model Ground water flow models
DE Model Kulandaiswamy model, IUH by Harmonic
series
Hydrologic Budget
Hydrologic Budget / Water balance
Mathematical statement if hydrologic cycle
Inflow outflow = change in storage
Average inflow over a period of time
Change in storage over a period of time
System
Average outflow over a period of time
S
I O (1)
t
I1 I 2 O1 O2 S 2 S1
(2)
2 2 t
Contd
If Inflow and outflow varies continuously with time
dS (t )
I (t ) O (t ) (3)
dt
All hydrologic analysis / processes must satisfy the equations.
But the input values are unknown before solving, hence extra relation
between input and output is needed to solve the water balance
equations.
This equation can be expressed in volumetric unit also.
I (t ) O (t )dt dS (t )
t t
I (t )dt O (t )dt S (t ) S (0) (4)
0 0
V1 (t ) Vo (t ) S (t ) S (0)
Rewrite this equation by considering all the storages and inflow and
outflow into a basin
? The storage in a river reach at a specified time is 3 ha m. At the same
instant, the inflow to the reach is 15 m3/s and outflow is 20 m3/s. One
hour later, the inflow is 20 m3/s and outflow is 20.5 m3/s. Determine
the change in storage?
Initial storage S1 = 3 ha m = 30000 m3

Initial inflow I1 = 15 m3/s
Initial outflow O1 = 20 m3/s.
Time period = 1 hr = 3600 sec
Final inflow I2 = 20 m3/s
Final outflow O2 = 20.5 m3/s.
Change in storage?
Change in storage = - 9900 m3

Final storage = 20,100 m3
Water budget
Component of hydrological cycle
Accounting of inflow, outflow and storage
Water budget equation-
- straight forward
-balance of gains & losses of water in the region
and water stored
Surface water only
P - Gi + Go R E T I = S P E
R T
In general
P R E T G I = S S
Where, P= precipitation,
R= runoff,
E= evaporation, Gi Go
T= transpiration,
I = Infiltration
I
G= groundwater flux,
S= change in storage
If G=0 and ET is constant
P R ET = 0
Space and time scales in hydrology
Space
Largest scale Globe
Smallest scale drainage basin
In between = continental, regional etc.
A drainage basin or a watershed is the area that
diverts all runoff to the same drainage outlet.
Time
Range from fraction of an hour to year
Depends up on the purpose of the study and problem
involved.
Hours, daily, weekly, ten-daily, fortnightly, monthly,
seasonal and annual are very common.
Meteorology
Weather Climate
Parameters with parameters
small time averaged
(today) over a period
of time
Precipitation is the link between
atmosphere and earth
Important meteorological Variables
Maximum temperature
Minimum temperature
Maximum relative humidity
Minimum relative humidity
Wind speed
Sunshine hours
Radiation
Evaporation
Precipitation
Water vapor
Fraction of water vapor in atmosphere is

very small, compared to the other gases
But very important for life
Precipitation is derived form of this
atmospheric water
Water vapor obeys gas laws
Principle sources are evaporation from
ocean, sea and water bodies
Measures as atmospheric humidity
Contd
Equal volume
Pressure increases if the all air
Dry air
space are with water vapor
Dry air Water content
increases
= saturated
No
evaporation evaporation
= Conducive environment
for rainfall
Some of the common measures of atmospheric moisture

humidity
absolute humidity
specific humidity
mixing ratio
relative humidity
dew point temperature
Two important Process in Precipitation
P = f (t, ws, RH, etc)
Two process
ice crystal process coalescence process

small cloud droplets increase their size
Ice crystal exists together with water
due to contact with other through
droplets at subfreezing temp.(-40oc)
collisions
the dust particles (clay minerals, fall velocity at equilibrium are
organic and ordinary ocean salts) proportional to the square of radius of
serves as the freezing nuclei droplets
hence large size fall at greater velocity

the ice crystals grow in size
and results in collisions
with increase in size they tend to fall very large droplets > 7mm diameter
down due to gravity tend to break into small droplets
this is basis for artificial rain or cloud

very important in tropical regions.
seeding
Amount of precipitable water
Amount of water contained in a column of atmosphere extending form
of earth surface
All water cannot be removed from atmosphere by natural processes
if P = precipitable water normally measured in cm or mm or inches
h
P = w dh
0
where, w = absolute humidity,
h= thickness of column or atmospheric height
h1 h 2
W= w1dh1 + w2dh2 +
0 h1
If thickness has varying relative humidity

Precipitation
(all forms of water that reach the earth from the atmosphere)
Forms of Precipitation
Rain: in form of water drops of sizes larger than
0.5 mm, max. 6mm
Light rain trace to 2.5 mm/h
Moderate rain 2.5 mm/h to 7.5 mm/h
Heavy rain - > 7.5 mm/h
Snow: ice crystals combine to form flakes
Initial density varies from 0.06-0.15 g/cm3
Drizzle: fine sprinkle of numerous water droplets
of size less than 0.5 mm and intensity less than
1mm/h
Glaze: water drops freeze to form an ice coating
Sleet: frozen raindrops of transparent grains

(when rain falls through air at subfreezing
temperature)
Hail: showery precipitation in the form of

irregular pellets or lumps of ice of size more than
8mm.
Weather Systems for Precipitation
Front: interface between warm and cold air
masses
A cold front
Front: interface between warm and cold air
masses
After 30 mints
Closer view of Warm and cold masses
Contd
A warm front
Contd
A stationary front
Contd
An occluded front
Cyclone: large low pressure region with circular wind motion
Tropical cyclone: wind system with intensively strong depress
with MSL pressures ~ 915mbars
Called cyclone in India
Hurricane in USA
Typhoon in South-East Asia
Extra tropical cyclone:

outside the tropical zone
Associated with frontal system
Strong counter-clockwise wind circulation in the northern
hemisphere
INSAT-1D
INSAT-
image of a
Cyclone in
Orissa
coast on
Oct 29th
1999
Representation of rainfall, pressure
and wind speed distribution in a
cyclone
Anticyclone:
Large aerial extent regions of high pressure
clockwise wind circulation in the northern
hemisphere
Convective precipitation
Rise in packet of warm air (lesser density)
due to localized heating, undergoes cooling
and results in Precipitation
Orographic precipitation
Moist air masses lifted up to higher altitudes
due to presence of mountains, undergo
cooling, condensation and precipitation
??Explain the theory of precipitation

Thunder storms
Generally different from other types of
precipitation due to its electrical nature
Very much local in nature
But very much productive of very intense rainfall
significant in local and urban drainage works
Develops from vertical air movement associated
with tense surface heating or orographic effects
Three stages cumulus stage, mature stage
and dissipating stage
Thunder storms (Contd)
Cumulus stage
Strong updrafts over 25,000 ft
Vertical wind as high as 56 kmph
Horizontal flow of air provides moisture
Air temperature is higher than outside the storm creating convexity of the
isotherms
The number and size of water droplets increases as stage progresses
Duration is 10-15 mints.
Thunder storms (Contd)
Mature stage
Entrainment of updrafts increases the condensation
Development of water droplets and ice crystals
Droplet size increases and precipitation occurs
Then strong downdrafts are created due to falling ice
crystals and rainfall
Downdrafts as high as 32 kmph
Gusty surface winds move outward from the region of rainfall
Heavy precipitation during these period-usually 15-30 mints.
Dissipating stage
Downdraft becomes predominant
All air within storm descend and end precipitation
Characteristics of Precipitation
on India
South-west monsoon (June-September)
Transition-I, Post-monsoon (October-November)
Winter season (December-February)
Transition-II, Summer, (March-May)

Monsoon Rainfall at IIT Bombay
Measurement
(depth to which rainfall water would stand on an
area if all the rain were collected on it)
Raingauge
Cylindrical-vessel assembly kept in the open to collect
rain
Nonrecording Gauges
Recording Gauges
Non-recording Gauge
(Symons Gauge)
Recording Gauges
Tipping-Bucket Type
Weighing-Bucket Type
Natural-Syphon Type
Telemetering Raingauges
Radar Measurement of Rainfall
Sample chart of a regarding type
rain gauge station
Rain gauge Network
WMO Recommendation
Flat regions of temperate, Mediterranean and
Tropical zones
Ideal 1 station for 600-900 km2
Acceptable 1 station for 900-3000km2
Mountainous regions of temperate,
Mediterranean and topical zones
Ideal 1 station for 100-250 km2
Acceptable 1 station for 900-3000km2
Arid and polar zones
1 station for 1500-10,000 km2 depending on the
feasibility
IS : 4987-1968 recommendations
In Plains:
1 station per 520 km2
Regions of avg. elevation 1000m:

1 station per 260-390 km2
Hilly areas with heavy rainfall

1 station per 130 km2
Adequacy of Rain gauge
Stations
Optimal No. of stations
2
Cv
N
100 m 1
Cv
P m

Pi P
2
m 1 1
m 1

1 m
P Pi
m 1
A well distributed rain gauge
network
Rain gauge station
Class Work
? A catchment has six rain gauge stations. In a year, the
annual rainfall recorded by the gauges are as follows:
Station 1 2 3 4 5 6
Rainfall (cm) 82.6 102.9 180.3 110.3 98.8 136.7
For a 10% error in the estimation of the mean rainfall,

calculate the optimum number of stations in the
catchment
Ans: m=6 Average = 118.6 Std.Dev = 35.04

Cv= 0.295
Optimum number of rain gauge = 8.7 9 stations
Ref: K.Subramanya
Preparation of Data
Continuity and Consistency
Normal Annual rainfall: average annual
precipitation at any station A based on a specific 30-
years of records
Estimation of Missing Data
Arithmetic average method 1
Px P1 P2 ....... Pm
M
Normal ratio method
Used when the variation in rainfall is more than 10%
Nx P1 P2 Pm
Px .......
M N1 N 2 Nm
? The normal annual rainfall (cm) in four stations is 80.97 (A), 67.59
(B), 76.28(C) and 92.01 (D). The last station (D) was not operated in
a particular year. Find the missing data if annual rainfall in other
three stations are 91.11 (A), 72.23 (B), and 79.89(C) respectively.
Ans: 99.41 cm by normal ratio method
81.08 cm by arithmetic average method
Contd
Inverse distance method
Computing of weights of the surrounding rain
gauges
The distances are computed by establishing a set
of axes running through the missing data station
The distance Di2= (xi-x0)2+(yi-y0)2
The weight of the ith station = (1/ Di2 )/( 1/ Di2 )
??Determine the rainfall at station A, using
inverse method
Rainfall at station 1 = 2.5 cm (1.2, 0.9)
Average rainfall by inverse method is 2.14 cm

Test of Consistency of Record
Numerous factors could affect the consistency of the record
at a given station
- damage and replacement of a raingauge

- change in the gauge location or elevation
- growth of high vegetation or construction of a building
- change in measurement procedure, or
- human, mechanical, or electrical error in taking readings
A method called Double Mass Curve is used for adjusting

inconsistent data.
Double Mass Curve
MC
Ma
Mc
Pcx Px
Ma
Year Station A
other
station
Class Work
1985 177 143
1986 144 132 Steps:
1987 178 146
1988 162 147
1. Arrange the data in chronologically
1989 194 161 descending order
1990 168 155 2. Find cumulative of station A
1991 196 152
1992 144 117
3. Find cumulative of other stations
1993 160 128 4. Plot the graph station A in Y axis and
1994 196 193 others in X axis
1995 141 156
1996 158 164
5. Locate the points and mark the year
1997 145 155 on it
1998 132 143 6. Join the points
1999 95 115
2000 148 135
7. Find where the line changes its
2001 142 163 slope.
2002 140 135 8. Adjust the old records so that they
2003 130 143
2004 137 130
form the current straight line trend.
2005 130 146
2006 163 161
Statio other Cumulati 4000
n st ve other
Year A
ati
on
of
A
stati
ons
Check the results by listing the values
2006 163 161 163 161 in chronologically ascending order3380.00
2005 130 146 293 307 3203.00
Cumulative rainfall of Station A (cm)

2004 137 130 430 437 3059.00
3000
2003 130 143 560 580 2881.00
2719.00
2002 140 135 700 715
2525.00
2001 142 163 842 878
2357.00
2000 148 135 990 1013
2161.00
1999 95 115 1085 1128 2017.00
2000
1998 132 143 1217 1271 1857.00
1997 145 155 1362 1426 1661.00

1520.00
1996 158 164 1520 1590
1362.00
1995 141 156 1661 1746 1217.00
1994 196 193 1857 1939 1085.00
1000 990.00
1993 160 128 2017 2067 842.00
700.00
1992 144 117 2161 2184
560.00
1991 196 152 2357 2336 430.00
1990 168 155 2525 2491 293.00
163.00
1989 194 161 2719 2652
0
1988 162 147 2881 2799
0 1000 2000 3000 4000
1987 178 146 3059 2945
Other stations cumulative rainfall (cm)
1986 144 132 3203 3077
1985 177 143 3380 3220
Presentation of Rainfall Data
Mass Curve of Rainfall
Hyetograph
Point Rainfall
Station rainfall refers to the rainfall data of a

station
Daily
Weekly
Monthly
Seasonal
annual
Mean precipitation over an area
Arithmetical-Mean Method
Thiessen polygon-Mean Method
Isohyetal Method
Although, most of these calculations are done

with computer mapping programs, it is still
useful to understand these methods
Arithmetical-Mean Method
N
P1 P2 ........... Pi .......... Pn 1
P
N

N
P
i 1
i
Rainfall Rainfall (cm)

Station
A 33.4
B
C
34.2
33.3
Average rainfall
D
E
34.5
35.0 = 35.02 cm
F 37.0
G 37.3
H 35.5
I 35.0
Sum Total
Thiessen method
This involves determining the area of influence for each station,
rather than assuming a straight-line variation. It is easier than
the isohyetal method but less accurate
Locate all rainfall stations on a
base map and record the rainfall
amount.
Connect each station by straight
lines with the several nearest
stations to form a series of
triangles.
Erect perpendicular bisectors on
each of these lines and extend
them to the intersect with other M
bisectors, thus forming a series of
irregular polygons
PA
i 1
i i
P
A
Thiessen method
Measure the fraction of the catchment area in each polygon (called
the Thiessen constant), multiply by the rainfall catch at the station
within the polygon and sum to get the catchment average.
Rainfall A B A*B
Station Thiessen Rainfall in Each Weighted average
Constant Polygon
(Fractional Area)
A 0.144 33.4 4.81
B 0.110 34.2 3.76
C 0.104 33.3 3.46
D 0.133 34.5 4.59
E 0.132 35.0 4.62
F 0.113 37.0 4.18
G 0.064 37.3 2.39
H 0.105 35.5 3.73
I 0.103 35.0 3.60
Sum Total 1.00 35.14
Thiessen constant = area of each rain gauge influence / total area (1230 ha)
Isohyetal method
The most basic method of representing the spatial distribution.
This is generally the most accurate method but is also the most
laborious.
Locate all rainfall stations on a

base map and record the rainfall
amount.
Draw isohyets (lines of equal

rainfall) by proportioning the
distances between adjacent
gauges according to differences
in catch.
P1 P2 P2 P3 Pn 1 Pn
a1 a2 ....... a n 1
2 2 2
P
A
Isohyetal method
Then calculate the mean precipitation for the area corresponding to
each isohyet.
Calculate the fraction of catchment area under each isohyet,

multiply by the mean precipitation for that area and sum to
get the catchment average.
Isohyets A B A*B
Upper Lower Mean Rainfall Area Between Weighted
On Area Isohyets (ha) Mean
Rainfall
38 37 37.5 130 4875
37 36 36.5 150 5475
36 35 35.5 300 10650
35 34 34.5 450 15525
34 33 33.5 200 6700
Total 1230 43225
Mean Rainfall = 35.14 i.e. from (43225/1230)

Thiessen Polygons constructed for
Kakatiya canal in SRSP
Types of curves used in
Hydrological Analysis
Depth-area-duration curves (DAD)
Intensity-Duration-frequency curves (IDF)
Intensity duration curves (ID)
Maximum rainfall-area curves (DA)
Maximum rainfall-duration curves (AD)

Depth-Area-Duration Relationships
These curves gives relationship between
Depth of rainfall
Area of catchment
Duration of the rainfall
To develop DAD curves
Severe most rainstorm data
Prepare isohyetal and mass curves
Develop depth-area curve
From mass curve of rainfall, find the depth of rainfall
for various duration and plot the same in DAD curve
Repeat the procedure for various durations
How to derive this?
Let us consider a catchment
isohytel map having two
storm centers
Rainfall in cm and area in
km2
The area between each
isohyte can be measured
using planimeter, graph or
digitizer
This rainfall has occurred for
a duration of 4 hr. (the
isohyte duration is 4 hr)
Depth-Area-Duration Relationships
Duration in hr
P Po exp KA n

P =average rainfall
Po = highest amount of rainfall at storm centre
K and n are constants
Intensity-Duration-Frequency
Relationship
x
Duration (min) KT
i
1. Derived from iso-pluvial map
Contour Map of equal depth rainfall
D a n
of various return period (remember

isohyetal map???)
Intensity duration curves (ID)
Relationship between Intensity of rainfall and
duration of rainfall
Mainly developed to use for the storm water drainage
design
The duration varies from minutes to few days only
This is similar to IDF curve without frequency
Maximum rainfall-area curves (DA)

Gives relationship between maximum rainfall
and area
Useful in design of structures where there is no
rainfall data available
This is similar to DAD with out duration
Frequency of point rainfall
The rainfall at a place is a random hydrologic process
This random rainfall arranged in chronological order

constitutes a time series
Frequency is the probability of occurrence of a particular

extreme rainfall in that series
The purpose of frequency analysis is to obtain a relation

between the magnitude of the event and its probability of
exceedence.
The probability analysis may be made either by empirical

or by analytical methods.
Analytical methods
If the probability of occurrence of an rainfall magnitude X is P (normally
called as exceedence probability), then the recurrence interval (return
period) of this rainfall magnitude is given as
1
T
P
This represents the average interval between the occurrence of rainfall
of magnitude equal to or greater than X (it may be successive years
also)
The probability of the event not occurring in a given year is q=(1-P)
The binomial distribution can be used to find the probability of

occurrence of the event r times in n successive years.
nr n!
n r
Pr ,n C r P q P r q nr
(n r )!r!
Pr,n is probability of a random hydrologic event of given rainfall magnitude
and exceedence probability P occurring r times in n successive years.
Contd
The Probability of an event of exceedence
probability P occurring 2 times in n successive
years
n!
P2,n P 2 q n2
(n 2)!2!
The probability of the event of exceedence
probability P not occurring at all in n successive
years P q n 1 P
n
0, n
The probability of the event of exceedence

probability occurring at least once in n successive
years n
P 1 q 1 1 P
1
n
Problem
? Analysis of data on maximum one-day rainfall depth at a
place indicated that a depth of 280 mm had a return
period of 50 years. Determine the probability of a one-
day rainfall equal to or greater than 280 mm occurring
(a) once in 20 successive years, (b) two times in 15
successive years and (c) at least once in 20 successive
years.
Ans: P=1/50 = 0.02

P1,20 = 0.272
P2,15 = 0.323
P1 = 1-(1-p)n = 0.332
Plotting position (empirical methods)
Simple technique is Method P
arrange the given
California m/N
rainfall in descending
order of magnitude Hazen (m-0.5)/N
and assign a rank to
Weibull m/(N+1)
them.
Then the probability Chegodayev (m-0.3)/(N+0.4)
of an event equal to Blom (m-0.44)/(N+0.12)
or exceeded is given
by the following Gringorten (m-3/8)/(N+1/4)
formula
Problem
? For a station the recorded Rainfall
annual 24 hr maximum rainfall Year (cm) Rainfall
are given. Estimate the 24 hr 1985 13 Year (cm)
rainfall with return periods of 1986 12 1996 7.8
13 and 50 years. What would 1987 7.6 1997 9
be the probability of a rainfall 1988 14.3 1998 10.2
of magnitude equal to or
1989 16 1999 8.5
exceeding 10 cm occurring in
1990 9.6 2000 7.5
24 hr at this station
1991 8 2001 6
Ans: 1. arrange the data in
1992 12.5 2002 8.4
descending order
1993 11.2 2003 10.8
2. Rank them
1994 8.9 2004 10.6
3. Apply any one formula to
1995 8.9 2005 8.3
estimate the P
2006 9.5
4. Draw the plotting curve and
extrapolate
Rainfall
Solution
Year (cm) Rank California Hazen Weibull Chegodayev Blom Gringorten
1989 16 1 0.045 0.023 0.043 0.031 0.025 0.028
1988 14.3 2 0.091 0.068 0.087 0.076 0.071 0.073
1985 13 3 0.136 0.114 0.130 0.121 0.116 0.118
1992 12.5 4 0.182 0.159 0.174 0.165 0.161 0.163
1986 12 5 0.227 0.205 0.217 0.210 0.206 0.208
1993 11.2 6 0.273 0.250 0.261 0.254 0.251 0.253
2003 10.8 7 0.318 0.295 0.304 0.299 0.297 0.298
2004 10.6 8 0.364 0.341 0.348 0.344 0.342 0.343
1998 10.2 9 0.409 0.386 0.391 0.388 0.387 0.388
1990 9.6 10 0.455 0.432 0.435 0.433 0.432 0.433
2006 9.5 11 0.500 0.477 0.478 0.478 0.477 0.478
1997 9 12 0.545 0.523 0.522 0.522 0.523 0.522
1994 8.9 13
1995 8.9 14 0.636 0.614 0.609 0.612 0.613 0.612
1999 8.5 15 0.682 0.659 0.652 0.656 0.658 0.657
2002 8.4 16 0.727 0.705 0.696 0.701 0.703 0.702
2005 8.3 17 0.773 0.750 0.739 0.746 0.749 0.747
1991 8 18 0.818 0.795 0.783 0.790 0.794 0.792
1996 7.8 19 0.864 0.841 0.826 0.835 0.839 0.837
1987 7.6 20 0.909 0.886 0.870 0.879 0.884 0.882
2000 7.5 21 0.955 0.932 0.913 0.924 0.929 0.927
2001 6 22 1.000 0.977 0.957 0.969 0.975 0.972
Rainfa Ran Califor Haze Weib Chegod Gringort
Year ll (cm) k nia T n T ull T ayev T Blom T en T
1989 16 1 0.045 22.0 0.023 44.0 0.043 23.0 0.031 32.0 0.025 39.5 0.028 35.6
1988 14.3 2 0.091 11.0 0.068 14.7 0.087 11.5 0.076 13.2 0.071 14.2 0.073 13.7
1985 13 3 0.136 7.3 0.114 8.8 0.130 7.7 0.121 8.3 0.116 8.6 0.118 8.5
1992 12.5 4 0.182 5.5 0.159 6.3 0.174 5.8 0.165 6.1 0.161 6.2 0.163 6.1
1986 12 5 0.227 4.4 0.205 4.9 0.217 4.6 0.210 4.8 0.206 4.9 0.208 4.8
1993 11.2 6 0.273 3.7 0.250 4.0 0.261 3.8 0.254 3.9 0.251 4.0 0.253 4.0
2003 10.8 7 0.318 3.1 0.295 3.4 0.304 3.3 0.299 3.3 0.297 3.4 0.298 3.4
2004 10.6 8 0.364 2.8 0.341 2.9 0.348 2.9 0.344 2.9 0.342 2.9 0.343 2.9
1998 10.2 9 0.409 2.4 0.386 2.6 0.391 2.6 0.388 2.6 0.387 2.6 0.388 2.6
1990 9.6 10 0.455 2.2 0.432 2.3 0.435 2.3 0.433 2.3 0.432 2.3 0.433 2.3
2006 9.5 11 0.500 2.0 0.477 2.1 0.478 2.1 0.478 2.1 0.477 2.1 0.478 2.1
1997 9 12 0.545 1.8 0.523 1.9 0.522 1.9 0.522 1.9 0.523 1.9 0.522 1.9
1994 8.9 13
1995 8.9 14 0.636 1.6 0.614 1.6 0.609 1.6 0.612 1.6 0.613 1.6 0.612 1.6
1999 8.5 15 0.682 1.5 0.659 1.5 0.652 1.5 0.656 1.5 0.658 1.5 0.657 1.5
2002 8.4 16 0.727 1.4 0.705 1.4 0.696 1.4 0.701 1.4 0.703 1.4 0.702 1.4
2005 8.3 17 0.773 1.3 0.750 1.3 0.739 1.4 0.746 1.3 0.749 1.3 0.747 1.3
1991 8 18 0.818 1.2 0.795 1.3 0.783 1.3 0.790 1.3 0.794 1.3 0.792 1.3
1996 7.8 19 0.864 1.2 0.841 1.2 0.826 1.2 0.835 1.2 0.839 1.2 0.837 1.2
1987 7.6 20 0.909 1.1 0.886 1.1 0.870 1.2 0.879 1.1 0.884 1.1 0.882 1.1
2000 7.5 21 0.955 1.0 0.932 1.1 0.913 1.1 0.924 1.1 0.929 1.1 0.927 1.1
2001 6 22 1.000 1.0 0.977 1.0 0.957 1.0 0.969 1.0 0.975 1.0 0.972 1.0
25
Magnitude of 22.50
rainfall for 50
years return
20
period is
18.25 cm
17.50
Rainfall (cm)
15
12.50
? Carryout
plotting for 10
other methods
also 7.50
5
2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
1 10 100
Return Period T in years
Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP)
Defined as the greatest rainfall for a given duration that is physically possible
over a station.
Two methods are available to estimate this rainfall over a station
Meteorological method
Statistical study based on rainfall data
PMP P
K-is called frequency factor (may be around 15)
K
P = average maximum precipitation, = standard deviation of the max. precipitation
Rainfall Data in India
Measurements started 18th Century (even older times also)
First ever recorded in India is at Kolkata (1784), Chennai (1792) Mumbai (1823) and
Simla (1840)
India Meteorological Department (IMD)
established in 1875
Publishes daily and monthly rainfall of India
Head quarters at Pune
Year
Maximum
intensity Year
Maximum
intensity Sample problem
1976
1977
264.7
136.8
1991
1992
399
215.4
on PMP
If Rainfall of 2005 is included
1978 158.9 1993 312.4
Average 237.0133
1979 170.3 1994 157.2
Std.Dev 152.1841
1980 151.1 1995 180
PMP P K
1981 318.2 1996 171.7
1982 275.6 1997 346.2

PMP 2519.775 mm/day
1983 253.4 1998 211.5
1984 240.1 1999 134.4 If rainfall of 2005 is not included

1985 223.6 2000 351.5 Average 212.6276
1986 194.5 2001 178.2

Std.Dev 74.22977
1987 125.7 2002 186 PMP P K

1988 144.9 2003 192.9 PMP 1326.074 mm/day
1989 192.1 2004 129.7
1990 150.2 2005 944.2

Self Study
? Snow fall and its measurements
? Solve all the questions and problems

given in the class
? Understand the phenomena of rainfall

pattern over this city
Current research in this area
1. Estimation of optimum number of rain gauge stations
2. Interactive software for precipitation analysis
3. Estimation and derivation of IDF curves with limited
rainfall data
4. Frequency analysis and IDF curve derivation
5. PMP estimation
6. Local, regional and global level hydrological parameter
estimation
7. Climate change interms of rise/decrease in
temperature, increase/decrease in rainfall, increase in
sea water levels, etc..,
Any Questions????????
OK
LET US FALL ON THE EARTH AS

Precipitation
Abstraction (or
losses)
from
Precipitation
First abstraction or first or initial loss????
Interception by trees and buildings
First abstraction or first loss????
Interception by shrubs
Interception by small plants with large root system
Interception by small pits/depressions
Interception by small pits/depressions
Interception by large pits/depressions
Initial loss
Interception process + depression storage
Interception process: part of rain
caught by vegetation.
it may be evaporated back into
atmosphere
OR it falls on the earth
It may drip off the plant leaves to join
ground called as through-fall
It may run along the leaves-
branches-stem and then reach
ground called as stem-flow
Initial loss
Interception process + depression storage
Depression storage: the volume
of water tapped in depressions,
before it can flow over the
surface. It depends on
Type of soil
The condition of the surface
reflecting the amount the
nature of the depressions
Slope of the catchment
Antecedent precipitation
Evaporation
Evaporation Processes
It is the process in which liquid changes to gaseous
state at the free surface, below the boiling point
through the transfer of heat energy. Generally
expressed in mm/day
The rate of evaporation is dependent on
Vapour pressure at water surface and above
Air and water Temperature
Wind speed
Atmospheric pressure
Quality of the water
Heat storage in Water bodies (size of the water
body)
Contd
Vapour pressure at water surface and above
EL= (es-ea) :Called as Daltons Law of evaporation
(1802)
This continues until es>ea (then condensation takes place)
Air and water Temperature
Rate of evaporation increases with increase in water
temperature but it is less correlated with air temperature
Wind speed
Rate of evaporation increases with wind speed up to
critical speed (until it removes all air vapour) then there is
no influence.
Critical wind speed is function of size of water bodies
Small water body less speed is sufficient
Large water body high speed is required
Contd
Atmospheric pressure
A decrease in the barometric pressure increases the evaporation
(particularly in high altitudes)
Quality of the water
Dissolved salts decreases the evaporation
Approximately corresponds to the % increase in the specific gravity
Sea water is about 2-3% less than the fresh water
Heat storage in Water bodies (size of the water body)
Deep water bodies stores more heat?
Has larger evaporation
However the evaporation rates are not on the same day-they are
seasonal
These water bodies will have less evaporation in summer than
evaporation rate during winter
But the depth and area of submergence are also related
Evaporation rate can be quantified by:
Measuring using evaporimeters
Empirical evaporation equations
Analytical methods
Evaporimeters
Pans containing water, exposed to atmosphere
Loss of water is measured at regular intervals
(day)
Types of evaporimeter
Class A Evaporation Pan
ISI Standard pan
Colorado Sunken pan
US geological survey floating pan

Colorado Sunken
Class A evaporation pan evaporation pan
Pan coefficient (Cp)
Evaporation pans can model large reservoir
Some disadvantages are
Difference in heat storing capacity and heat
transfer from sides and bottom
Height of rim affects the wind action
Heat transfer characteristic are different
Lake evaporation = Cp X Pan evaporation

where Cp is pan coefficient
Values of Pan Coefficient (Cp)
S.No. Types of pan Average Range

Value
1. Class A land Pan 0.70 0.60-0.80
2. ISI pan (modified class A) 0.80 0.65-1.10
3. Colorado Sunken pan 0.78 0.75-0.86
4. USGS floating pan 0.80 0.70-0.82

Empirical Evaporation Equations
Generally, based on the Dalton-type equation
EL = K f(u) (ew ea)
where
EL = lake evaporation mm/day
ew = Saturated vapour pressure at the water surface temperature
in mm of mercury
ea = Actual vapour pressure of overlying air at a specified height in
mm of mercury
f(u) = Wind speed correction function
K = a coefficient
Two commonly used formulae
Meyers Formula (1915)
u
E L K M ew ea 1 9
16
u9-wind velocity km/h at 9 m above ground level
Rohwers Formula (1931)
E L 0.7711.465 0.000732 p a 0.44 0.0733u 0 ew ea

pa mean barometric pressure in mm of mercury
u0 wind velocity at 0.6 m above ground level
1/ 7
u h Ch
Reservoir Evaporation
The water volume lost due to evaporation from a reservoir
in a month is calculated as
VE = A Epm Cp
Empirical equations can give best approximation

EL=f(St, St+1)
EL= f(At, At+1)

Linear and non-linear relationships can be developed. This depends
up on in which model we are applied this variable.
A sample empirical linear relationship for estimation of
reservoir evaporation Sri Ram Sagar (AP)
Evaporation loss Historical evaporation Relationship between evaporation and the storage
(Mm3) Et = at + bt * (St+St+1)/2
Month (mm) Average Standard Constant Coefficient Correlation coefficient

deviation at bt
June 277.2 32.45 21.28 -0.04526 0.032891 0.930
July 221.5 35.96 19.13 0.337934 0.026263 0.957
August 177.6 44.24 14.39 7.048066 0.019883 0.949
September 194.4 52.38 11.71 19.19361 0.014872 0.714
October 124.3 49.98 12.69 10.63109 0.016538 0.873
November 165.1 38.64 9.67 12.74526 0.011463 0.898
December 151.1 31.95 10.28 7.959367 0.012263 0.936
January 171.0 26.74 11.54 2.536207 0.014708 0.981
February 201.3 26.69 12.33 3.772574 0.017282 0.944
March 311.8 37.28 19.84 3.464567 0.033528 0.981
April 369.3 36.71 21.58 6.534537 0.039498 0.962
May 386.3 34.97 23.26 3.220164 0.044379 0.966

Reservoir Evaporation - Reduction
Reduction in surface area
Mechanical covers
permanent roof
Temporary roofs
Floating roofs
Applicable to very small reservoirs
Chemical films
Used for large reservoirs
One of the practical and viable solution
Cetyl alcohol (hexadecanol) and stearyl alcohol (octadecanol)
Applied as thin films (0.35 to 0.4 kg/ha/day)
Some of the important characters of the chemical
The films should be strong and flexible and does not break easily due
to wave action
If punctured due to rain or birds etc, the film has to close soon after
It should be pervious to oxygen and carbon dioxide
It should not affect the water quality
It should be colorless, odorless and non toxic
Only disadvantage is that strong winds blow this films to one side of the
water body
Transpiration
Processes in which the
water reaches the
atmosphere from earth
through the plants
The plants remove water
from soil through root and
transpire this water into
atmosphere as vapour
through stomata in their
leaves.
Transpiration is function of???
1. Meteorological parameters
2. Plant characteristics
Evapotranspiration
In irrigated area, natural vegetation evaporation and
transpiration occurs together
This processes is called as evapotranspiration

Consumptive use
Potential evapotranspiration
Actual evapotranspiration
Filed capacity
Permanent wilting point
Penman (1948) defined the evapotranspiration as the quantity of water

required by actively growing plant of 15 cm height completely shading
the ground and growing with out any shortage of water.
Normally estimated / measured for a standard crop and then applied

to individual crops
Contd
ET is a function of meteorological parameters, crop
characteristics, location (latitude, longitude, altitude) and
time
Measured
Lysimeters
Field plots
Contd
Field plots
Evapotranspiration models
All the models estimate the reference crop
evapotranspiration (ETr)
Then converts into crop evapotranspiration
(ETc) = KcxETr
Kc-crop coefficient function of crop type
and stage of crop
ETr based on temperature / radiation /
combined
Meteorological data
Maximum temperature.
Minimum temperature
Relative humidity
Wind velocity
Solar Radiation
Dew point temperature
Temperature based methods
Thornthwaite method
Linacre method
Blaney - criddle
Kharrufa method
Hamon method
Romanenko method
Hargreaves method
(only main equation is listed below, each equation has
number of sub-equations to estimate the parameters)
1. Blaney-Criddle method
ETo = a + b (p (0.46 T + 8.13)
Where,
ETo = Reference crop evapotranspiration in mm/day
a & b = Calibration factors
p = Mean daily percentage of total annual daytime hours.
T = Mean daily air temperature in oC
a = 0.0043 RHmin - (n/N) 1.41
b = 0.82 0.0041(RHmin) + 1.07 (n/N) + 0.066(U) 0.006(RHmin)(n/N)
0.0006(RHmin)(U)
n/N = Mean ratio of actual to possible sunshine hours.
RHmin = Minimum daily relative humidity (in %)
U= Wind speed at a height of 2 m from ground surface. (m/s)
U2 = Ux(2/x)(1/7)
?Compute the monthly reference crop evapotranspiration
using Blaney-Criddle method?
Month: July
Latitude: 300 N
Max. Temperature = 350 C
Min. Temperature = 220 C
Min. Relative Humidity = 35%
Sunshine Hours = 11.8 hrs
Wind speed = 12.6 km/hr
reference crop evapotranspiration= 8.3 mm/d

2. Thornthwaite Method
a
10T
PET 16
I
PET - Potential evapotranspiration in cm/month
T - Average temperature for the day or month in oC

1.514
Tj
i j
5
3. Romanenko method
2
E 0.0018(25 T ) (100 rh)
T= Mean air temperature in oC and
Rh = Mean monthly relative humidity in %, the units of E are mm/month
4. Hargreaves method
ET = 0.0023 RA TD1/2 (Ta + 17.8)
5. Kharrufa method
ET = 0.34pTa1.3
6. Linacre method
500Tm /(100 A) 15(Ta Td )
ET
(80 Ta )
ET = Linacre potential evapotranspiration (in mm/day),

Tm = T + 0.006h, h is the elevation (m).
A = Latitude (in degrees).
Td = Mean dew point temperature (in oC)
7. Hamon method
( 0.062Ta )
4.95e
ET= 0.55 D2 P t : Pt
100
Radiation based methods
Turc method
Makkink method
Jensen - Haise method
Hargreaves method
Doorenbos and Pruitt method
McGuinness and Bordne method
Abtew method
Priestley and Taylor method
Measurement of Radiation
The Solar Infrared Radiation Station (SIRS

(expressed as energy per unit area J/m2)
Radiation based method
1) Turc method
T for RH 50
ET 0.013 ( Rs 50)
T 15
T 50 RH for RH50
ET 0.013 ( Rs 50)1
T 5 70
2) Makkink method
Rs
ET 0.61 0.012
58.5
3) Jensen Haise method
ET= Ct (T - Tx) Rs
4) Hargreaves method
ET = 0.0135 (T + 17.8) Rs
5) Doorenbos and Pruitt method

ET a Rs b

6) McGuinness and Bordne method
ET = {( 0.0082 T 0.19 )( Rs /1500) }2.54

7)Abtew method
Rs
ET K

8) Priestley and Taylor method
Rn
ET

Contd...
Combined Method
FAO Modified Penman Method

FAO Modified Penman method
ETr = Cp [W Rn + (1-W). f (u). (es ea)]
Where
ETr = Reference crop evapotranspiration in mm/day

W = temperature and altitude dependent weighting
factor
Rn = Net radiation in equivalent evaporation in mm/day
Rn = Rns Rnl
Rns = Net short wave radiation mm/day = (1-)Rs
= reflection factor (0.25) (albedo)

= 0.29+0.06 sin[30(M+0.0333N+2.25)]
M = number of month Jan=1, N day of month
Rs = Solar radiation in mm/day = (a+b*n/N)Ra
n = Actual sunshine hours

N = Maximum possible sunshine hours
Ra = Extra terrestrial radiation in mm/day
Rnl = Net long wave radiation mm/day
= f(T).f(ea).f(n/N) mm/day
f (T) = Effect of temperature on long wave radiation
(Rnl)
f (ea) = Effect of actual vapour pressure on long wave
radiation (Rnl)
f(n/N) = Effect of ratio between actual and maximum
bright sunshine hours on long wave radiation
(Rnl)
f(u) = Wind related function = 0.27 [1 + U/100]
U = Wind speed in km / day at 2 m height
es = Saturated vapour pressure at mean air

temperature in mbar
ea = Actual vapour pressure of the air in mbar

= es (RHmean / 100)
Data needed for each & every Temperature based method
Data needed Temperature based methods Combined method
Blaney - Thronthwaite Linacre kharrufa Hargreaves Romanenko Hamon ModiPenman
criddle
Max.Tem
Min. Tem
D.pt.Tem
RH
U
E
Latitude
n
N
C
Delta
Gamma
Rns
Rnl
Rs
Ra
Rn
Alfa
es
ea
p
lamda
w
G
Cp
?Compute the monthly reference crop evapotranspiration
using FAO Modified Penman Method
Month: July
Latitude: 300 N Altitude 95 m
Max. Temperature = 350 C
Min. Temperature = 220 C
Min. Relative Humidity = 30%
Max. Relative Humidity = 80%
Sunshine Hours = 11.5 hrs
Wind speed at 3 m height = 250 km/day
Step 1: Estimate es (milli bar):Use Table 1 : or
es= 33.8639[(0.00738Tmean+0.8072)8-
0.000019*|1.8Tmean+48| +0.001316]
Step 2 : Estimate eb (mb): ea=es(RHmean/100)
Step 3: Estimate the wind function : f(u)
Step 4 : Estimate the weighting factor W : use
table 2
Step 5: Estimate the Rn
Step 6 : Estimate the value of Cp : Use table : or
Cp = 0.68+0.0028(RHmax)+0.018(Rs)-0.068(U2)+0.013(Uday/Unight)+
0.0097(U2) (Uday/Unight) +0.000043(RHmax)(Rs)(U2)
Study area
Kurungulam climatological station
latitude of 9 50 N and longitude of 75 45E.
normal annual rainfall is 1168 mm.
Length of data
10 years from 1991 to 2001
Mean monthly ETr estimated using selected temperature based
method
(Original constant value)
a a a
Month ETr_Pen ETr_Bla Error ETr_Thron Error ETr_Har Error ETr_Kha Errora ETr_Rom Errora
(%) (%) (%) (%) (%)
jun 168.7 120.4 -28.6 150.1 -11.0 151.5 -10.2 247.8 46.9 113.6 -32.6
jul 169.6 124.5 -26.6 153.3 -9.6 149.4 -11.9 250.5 47.7 138.4 -18.4
aug 174.6 118.4 -32.2 150.2 -14.0 147.8 -15.4 232.7 33.3 121.1 -30.6
sep 166.1 112.9 -32.0 144.0 -13.3 137.9 -16.9 221.0 33.1 102.7 -38.2
oct 134.4 92.0 -31.5 148.3 10.4 115.0 -14.4 218.2 62.4 92.4 -31.2
nov 115.3 75.2 -34.7 135.5 17.5 98.6 -14.5 179.7 55.9 58.8 -49.0
dec 113.6 76.1 -33.0 136.2 19.9 98.6 -13.2 173.3 52.6 62.1 -45.3
jan 120.7 75.5 -37.4 135.2 12.0 112.6 -6.7 170.4 41.2 54.1 -55.2
feb 103.7 63.6 -38.6 125.9 21.5 121.6 17.3 172.3 66.2 47.4 -54.3
mar 176.6 103.0 -41.7 144.6 -18.1 161.0 -8.8 207.7 17.6 74.8 -57.7
apr 169.3 113.2 -33.1 148.3 -12.4 161.6 -4.5 234.0 38.2 108.0 -36.2
may 182.3 126.3 -30.7 156.8 -14.0 163.7 -10.2 252.1 38.3 134.4 -26.3
Annual 1794.8 1201.1 -33.1 1728.5 -3.7 1619.4 -9.8 2559.8 42.6 1107.8 -38.3
Comparison Results with FAO Modified Penman Method
300.0
250.0 ETr_Pen
200.0 ETr_Bla
ETr in mm/month
150.0 ETr_Thron
100.0 ETr_Har
50.0 ETr_Kha
0.0 ETr_Rom
aug
jul
dec
jun
feb
apr
mar
sep
nov
jan
may
oct
ETr_Lin
Month
ETr_Ham
Mean monthly ETr estimated using selected radiation based
method
(Original constant value)
Month ETr_Pen ETr_Ma Errora ETr_Jen- Errora ETr_T Errora ETr_ Errora ETr_P Errora ETr_H Errora
k (%) Hai (%) ur (%) Mcg (%) ri (%) ar (%)
jun 168.7 19.5 -88.5 201.1 19.2 137.2 -18.6 77.5 -54.1 154.7 -8.3 157.1 -6.9
jul 169.6 18.9 -88.8 194.6 14.7 134.8 -20.5 75.2 -55.7 149.0 -12.1 152.8 -9.9
aug 174.6 21.1 -87.9 211.8 21.3 147.6 -15.4 82.2 -52.9 163.1 -6.6 167.6 -4.0
sep 166.1 21.5 -87.1 213.3 28.4 149.1 -10.2 82.9 -50.1 164.1 -1.2 169.4 2.0
oct 134.4 17.8 -86.7 177.8 32.3 127.2 -5.3 69.2 -48.5 139.2 3.6 141.7 5.4
nov 115.3 16.4 -85.7 155.4 34.8 117.4 1.8 61.3 -46.8 124.8 8.3 127.3 10.4
dec 113.6 16.0 -85.9 147.2 29.6 114.8 1.1 58.5 -48.5 116.6 2.6 122.7 8.0
jan 120.7 17.2 -85.8 156.1 29.3 121.6 0.7 62.2 -48.5 124.6 3.2 130.5 8.1
feb 103.7 13.7 -86.8 129.4 24.8 99.3 -4.2 51.1 -50.7 106.6 2.8 106.3 2.5
mar 176.6 23.6 -86.7 228.3 29.2 162.6 -7.9 89.3 -49.4 178.0 0.8 183.8 4.1
apr 169.3 21.1 -87.5 216.4 27.8 148.0 -12.6 83.6 -50.6 168.5 -0.5 169.8 0.3
may 182.3 21.4 -88.2 223.0 22.3 150.1 -17.6 85.8 -53.0 169.4 -7.1 173.5 -4.9
Annual 1794.8 228.2 -87.3 2254.2 25.6 1609.7 -10.3 878.8 -51.0 1758.6 -2.0 1802.4 0.4
Comparison Results
Comparison of all method with FAO Modified Penman method

E T r in m m /m o n th
250.0 ETr_Pen
200.0 ETr_Mak
150.0 ETr_Jen-Hai
100.0 ETr_Tur
50.0 ETr_Mcg
0.0 ETr_Pri
ETr_Har
o ct
d ec
apr
fe b
jun
a ug
ETr_Abt
Month ETr_Doo
Application of Artificial Neural Network to predict Reference crop evapotranspiration.
Reference crop evapotranspiration (Ref-ETr)

.
FAO modified Penman method.
Artificial Neural Networks (ANN).
Back propagation Network (BPN).
Application of BPN.
Results.
Reference crop evapotranspiration (Ref-ETr)
Estimation of Ref-ETr is indispensable

for an effective management of water
resources
Numerous methods varying from simple
empirical equation to complex methods are
available for its estimation.
FAO modified Penman method
Developed by Pruitt (Doorenbos and Pruitt, 1975; Doorenbos and Pruitt, 1977).
The complete expression for the FAO modified Penman method is given by
ETr = CP [(/(+)) Rn + (/(+)) * f (u) * (es ea)]
where, CP = 0.68 + 0.0028(RHmax) + 0.018(Rs)-0.068(U2day)
+0.013(Uday/Unight)+0.0097 Uday(Uday/Unight)
+0.43*10-4*(RHmax) (Rs) (U2day)
Rao et al, 1974 and Schultz, 1974, Mohan (1991) has recommended Penman
method for reliable estimation of Ref-ETr in India.
Daily ETr has been estimated for 5 years used for training the ANN
10
Daily reference crop evapotranspiration (mm/day)
2
0 400 800 1200 1600 2000
Days starting from Jan 1992 to Dec 1996
Daily Ref-ETr estimated using FAO Modified Penman method

Artificial Neural Networks (ANN)
ANN is simply a collection of

parallel processors.
It models the functioning of a
human brain.
Backpropagation Network (BPN)
BPN is a fully interconnected, layered, and feed
forward network.
No connection bypasses one layer to go directly
to a later layer.
A versatile Network, useful in handling
problems that require recognition of complex
patterns and in performing nontrivial mapping
functions.
Application of BPN (The Ref-ETr network)
The pattern matching ability of ANN is utilised in the present study,
to match the Ref-ETr values to its four vital parameters namely,
relative humidity, maximum and minimum temperature and wind
speed.
The network was trained with a data set for five years.
Input Layer Hidden Layer Output Layer
Mean
Relative
Humidity in
%
Maximum
Temperature
in C
REF-ET in
mm/day
Minimum
Temperature
in C
Wind speed
in km/hr
ANN model developed for predicting daily Ref-ETr

Results
Trained for 5 years

Validated for two years
The network developed, predicted daily Ref-ETr values
within the tolerance limit in 190 epochs.
The tolerance limit was set as 10% of difference between
maximum and minimum values of validation set.
The Root Mean Square validation (RMSE) error is 0.629.
Coefficient of linear regression is 0.925.
ETr predicted for three years
10
ANN model
FAO modified Penman method

2
1 201 401 601
Daily Ref-ETr values estimated using FAO modified Penman method and ANN model for
validation set data
8
r = 0.962
r 2 = 0.925
6
REF-ET using ANN model
2
2 4 6 8 10
REF-ET using FAO Modified Penman Method
Regression results of FAO modified Penman method Vs ANN model

10
2
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200
Daily REF-ET predicted using ANN model

Infiltration
It is the processes of entry of water in to the soil
Seepage
Percolation
Infiltration is a function of soil characteristics and is

expressed in mm/h
But infiltration opportunity time is also important, which is

function of rainfall intensity, and time available for the
water to enter the soil mass
It affects the surface runoff process by affecting the timing,

distribution and magnitude of surface runoff
It is primary step in ground water recharge

Variation in infiltration rate
Infiltration Capacity (fc)
The maximum rate,
at which a given soil at a given time can absorb water
Actual rate of infiltration (expressed in mm/h)

f = fc when i fc (runoff starts)
f=i when i< fc (no runoff condition)
where i = intensity of rainfall
Infiltration process is affected by

Characteristic of soil
Surface of entry
Fluid characteristics
Measurement of infiltration
Flooding type infiltrometer
Rainfall simulator
Infiltration indices
The average infiltration rate is called infiltration index
Types of infiltration indices
-index: it is the average rainfall above which the rainfall

volume is equal to runoff volume
PR
Where
te P= precipitation (cm)
R= runoff (cm)
W-index: Ia= initial losses (cm)
te= duration of rainfall excess (in hours)
W= average rate of infiltration (cm/h)
? A storm with 10.0 cm precipitation produced a
direct runoff of 5.8 cm. Given the time distribution
of the storm as below, estimate the -index of
the storm
Time of Start (h) 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
Incremental rainfall in 0.4 0.9 1.5 2.3 1.8 1.6 1.0 0.5
each hour (cm)
? The first hr and last hr rainfall

10 5.8 has not contributed to the
0.525 cm / h
8 runoff !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!. Hence
omit the two rainfall duration
9.1 5.8 and magnitude thus actual
Modified 0.55 cm / h
6 rainfall contributed to runoff is
10-0.4-0.5=9.1 cm only
Various Analytical Models of Infiltration
Overton Model
Holtan Model
Huggins-Monke (HM) Model
Kostiakov
Green-Ampt (GA) Model
Horton Model
Philip Two-Term Model
SCS Model
Kostiakov Model
The infiltration rate is represented by
f ab t b 1
ab and b-1 are constants and determined

by method of least squares
log f logab b 1 log t

Horton Model
The infiltration rate is represented by
f f c f 0 f c exp kt
ln f f c ln f 0 f c kt
Time from start of rain (min.) Infiltration rate (cm/h)
3 16.83
5 9.01
10 8.60
15 7.75
20 6.94
25 6.50
? For experimental data given 30 6.42
in Table below, fit the 35 6.41

40 6.22
Kostiakov model and 45 6.24
Horton infiltration model. 50 6.28
Show graphically the model 55 5.96
fit to experimental data. 60 5.69
Also plot the relative error 65 5.76

70 5.84
in model fit against time. 75 5.81
80 5.60
Relative error = (Observed 85 5.95

90 5.94
error computed 95 5.52
value)/Observed value 100 5.71
105 5.66
110 5.79
115 5.49
120 5.42
125 5.81
130 5.21
135 4.92
140 5.26
Kostiakov Model
Step1: plot the data f
ab t b 1
Step2: Kostiakov model

Take log of f and t
Step3: Plot log f Vs log t
log f logab b 1 log t
Step4: Fit a straight line find the
slope and intercept 8.00
Step5: Slope is equal to b-1

And antilog of intercept will give
you the ab 6.00
Step6: Estimate the error in
Infiltration rate in cm/hr

estimation
4.00
2.00
0.00
0.00 40.00 80.00 120.00 160.00

Time in mints
Kostiakov Model
Slope = -0.21461
Hence value of
(b-1) = -0.21461 1.00
Intercept = 0.787172 Fit Results

=log10(ab) Fit 7: Linear, Y=B*X+A
Equation:
Hence ab=5.850 Y = -0.21461 * X + 0.767172
Number of data points used = 29
0.80 Average X = 1.70801
Average Y = 0.400616
Regression sum of squares = 0.239536

Residual sum of squares = 0.0475666
Coef of determination, R-squared = 0.834322
f 5.85t 0.21481
Residual mean square, sigma-hat-sq'd = 0.00176172
0.60
0.40
0.20
0.40 0.80 1.20 1.60 2.00 2.40

Time in mints
8.00
Observed infiltration rate

Infiltration rate in cm/hr 6.00 estimated infiltration rate
4.00
2.00
0.00
0.00 40.00 80.00 120.00 160.00

Time in mints
Time from start of Observed Infiltration Estimated Infiltration Error in estimation
rain (min.) rate (cm/h) log t log f rate (cm/h) (%)
3 6.730 0.48 0.83 4.62 45.66
5 3.605 0.70 0.56 4.14 -12.93
10 3.438 1.00 0.54 3.57 -3.63
15 3.101 1.18 0.49 3.27 -5.16
20 2.776 1.30 0.44 3.07 -9.69
25 2.600 1.40 0.41 2.93 -11.26
30 2.567 1.48 0.41 2.82 -8.89
35 2.565 1.54 0.41 2.73 -5.90
40 2.487 1.60 0.40 2.65 -6.11
45 2.494 1.65 0.40 2.58 -3.43
50 2.510 1.70 0.40 2.52 -0.58
55 2.384 1.74 0.38 2.47 -3.62
60 2.275 1.78 0.36 2.43 -6.29
65 2.303 1.81 0.36 2.39 -3.49
70 2.336 1.85 0.37 2.35 -0.54
75 2.323 1.88 0.37 2.31 0.38
80 2.240 1.90 0.35 2.28 -1.85
85 2.381 1.93 0.38 2.25 5.69
90 2.377 1.95 0.38 2.23 6.82
95 2.208 1.98 0.34 2.20 0.38
100 2.282 2.00 0.36 2.18 4.90
105 2.264 2.02 0.35 2.15 5.17
110 2.316 2.04 0.36 2.13 8.66
115 2.195 2.06 0.34 2.11 3.97
120 2.168 2.08 0.34 2.09 3.64
125 2.325 2.10 0.37 2.07 12.12
130 2.085 2.11 0.32 2.06 1.40
135 1.969 2.13 0.29 2.04 -3.46
140 2.102 2.15 0.32 2.02 3.86
Average 0.54
Horton's Model
Step1: plot the data f f c f 0 f c exp kt
Step2: Find the basic infiltration
rate from the graph (1.95 ln f f c ln f 0 f c kt
cm/hr)
Step 3: Estimate (f-fc), then find20.00
ln (f-fc)
Step3: Plot ln (f-fc) Vs t
Step4: Fit a straight line find the16.00
slope and intercept

Step5: Slope is equal to k
and antilog of intercept will give
you the (fo-fc) 12.00
Step6: Estimate the error in

estimation
8.00
?? Solve the Problem and fit the
equation
4.00
0.00 40.00 80.00 120.00 160.00

Time in mints
Self Study
1. Solve all the problems given in this
section
2. Analytical models for evaporation loss
estimation
3. Other Infiltration models
1. Easy method to find the initial loss
2. Easy method to find the transpiration
3. Methods to reduce reservoir evaporation
4. Finding an appropriate method to estimate the
reference crop evapotranspiration
5. Application of ANN, GP and MT to predict the
meteorological variables and reservoir evaporation,
evaporation and evapotranspiration
6. Developing an infiltration model to suit the distributed
rainfall-runoff model
7. Etc
Drainage Basin Characteristics
Drainage Basin
Any portion of the earths surface within a physical boundary defined by
topographic slopes that diverts all runoff to the same drainage outlet
Any point on the main drainage system can be selected as the basin outlet
It is important characteristic, many hydrologic problems require an analysis of
drainage at a certain point (Outlet)
One can move the drainage outlet up or down the drainage system to location of
interest
The physical boundary of the drainage basin is defined by the direction in which
surface runoff water will drain, and follows the ridge line between hydrologic
units, on a topographic map
It appears as an irregular closed traverse that is everywhere normal to the
land contour
This boundary usually called as drainage divide
Basin characteristics
Drainage basin Channel Characteristics

Drainage area Channel order
Basin shape Channel length
Ground slope Channel slope
Centroid of the basin Channel profile
Drainage density
Basin Order
and
Channel Order
Drainage basin may be characterized in terms of the hierarchy of
stream ordering
The order of the basin is the order of its highest-order channel
The first order streams are

those have no tributaries
whose flow depends entirely on surface overland flow
The second-order channel

Formed by the junction of two first-order channels
It receives flow from these two first-order channels, overland flow, may
receive flow from another first-order channel flows directly into it
More flow of water than first-order channel
Third-order channel
Formed by the junction of two second-order channels
Receives flow only from the two second-order channels that form it
But also direct overland flow and possibly from first-order channels that run
directly into it
Possibly other second-order channels that might join it
The ordering system continues in the same manner
The junction of two third-order channels form a fourth

order channel and so on
Thus, a stream of any order has two or more tributaries

of the next lower order
A watershed is described as first-, second-, third-, or

higher-order, depending upon the stream order at the
outlet
Basin Area
The area contained within the vertical projection of the
drainage divide on a horizontal plane
Also known as drainage area
The watershed area is comprised of two subcomponents
Stream areas: areas that would constitute the area draining to a

predetermined point in the stream or outlet
Interbasin areas: the surface elements contributing flow directly

to streams of order higher than 1
Horton (1945) inferred that mean drainage areas of progressively higher

orders might form a geometric sequence
This characteristic was formulated as a law of drainage areas by Schumm

(1954)
Schumm (1954)
The mean drainage areas of streams of each order tend to approximate a
geometric progression
A w A1 Raw1
A w = mean area of basins of order w
or
A1 = mean area of first-order basins
log A w log A1 w 1log Ra Ra = stream area ratio, varies from 3 - 6

A
Ra w
A1 Aw1
log A w log w log Ra a bw
R
a
A1
a log , b log Ra
R
a
This relation is valid for basins on uniform soils within a given drainage area
Drainage area is highly correlated with several hydrologic parameters
Leopold and Miller (1956), Hack (1957)

Watershed discharge Q has been related to drainage area
Gray and Wigham (1970)

Presented a comprehensive list of flow-area relationship
One of the simplest relationship
Q = k Ax
Where, k and x are parameters

The magnitude of k depends on rainfall and other watershed parameters
x varies with Q
For average flow rates, x ~ 1
For high flows, x < 1
For low flows, x > 1
The variable Q is some measure of flow, such as mean annual, maximum flood,
minimum flood, etc.
This shows that the average depth of discharge does not depend on the area
Hack (1957)
Derived relation between mean annual discharge and drainage area
This relation is reasonably good for drainage basins soils with reasonably
similar hydrologic characteristics
Qw Q1 Rax w1
Qw is the average flow for A w
Q1 is the average flow for A1

Basin Shape
There are numerous symmetrical and irregular forms of drainage areas
A frequently occurring shape is a pear shape in plan view
Depending upon the interaction of climate and geologic processes, the

lateral section of a watershed may be
U shaped
V shaped
The transverse section, displays increase in steepness towards the u/s area
There are some parameters to define the watershed shape

Form factor
Shape factor
Elongation ratio
Circularity ratio
Compactness coefficient
Parameter Definition Formula Value
(author)
Form factor Watershed area A

<1
(Horton, 1932) 2 2
Watershed length L
Shape factor
(U.S. Army Corps of Watershed length 2 L2 >1
Engineers, 1954) Watershed area A
Elongation ratio Diameter or circle of watershed area 1.128 A0.5

1
(Schumm, 1956) Watershed length L
Circularity ratio Watershed area 12.57 A

1
(Miller, 1959) Area of circle of watershed perimeter
Pr2
Compactness coefficient Watershed perimeter 0.2821 Pr

1
(Strahler, 1964) Perimeter of circle of watershed arae 0.5
A
The watershed shape may influence the hydrograph shape
Basin Slope
Basin slope has a profound effect on
Velocity of overland flow
Watershed erosion potential
Local wind systems
Basin slope is defined as
S h/ L
Where h is the fall in feet or meters
L is the horizontal distance (length) over which the fall occurs
As ground slope varies greatly from point to point within the drainage basin,
above eq. is not adequate
Horton (1932)
a better representative value of S
Represented the drainage area by a grid system on its topographic map
SV S H
S
2
where
Nh
Sx , x V or H
L
SV is the average slope for the vertical
SH is the average slope for the horizontal
N as well as L correspond to SV or SH
Centroid of Basin
The location of the point within the
drainage basin that represents the
weighted center of the basin
It can be determined more
accurately by using the method of
moments and representing the
basin by a grid system
N
xi ai 1 N
i 1
x
N

A i 1
xi ai
Where, xi is the distance between the y-axis and the center of
ai the ith grid square
i 1 yi is the distance between the x-axis and the center of the ith
grid square
N is the total number of grid squares in the x direction
1 M
y
A i 1
yi ai M is the total number of grid squares in the y direction
Basin Length
Schumm (1956)
The longest dimension of a basin
parallel to its principal drainage
channel
Smart and Surkan (1967) b

0.568
Lb 1.312 A
Lb in km
A in km2
Drainage Density
The length of drainage per unit area
Runoff
Runoff
Draining or flowing off of precipitation from a catchment area
through a surface channel
The output from the catchment in a given unit of time
For a given precipitation,

evapotranspiration,
initial loss,
infiltration and
detention-storage requirements
have to be first satisfied before the commencement of

Runoff
Overland flow - excess precipitation
moves over the land surfaces to reach
smaller channels
Surface runoff - Flows from several

small channels join bigger channels and
flows from these in turn combine to form a
larger stream, and so on, reaches the
catchment outlet
Interflow/seepage/subsurface/storm
flow or Quick return flow
A part of the precipitation that infiltered moves laterally

through upper crusts of the soil and returns to the
surface at some location away from the point of entry
into the soil
Depends on geological conditions of the
catchment (physiographic feature)
A fairly pervious soil overlying a hard impermeable surface

is conducive to large interflows
Depending upon time delay between the infiltration and the

outflow, the interflow is classified
Prompt Interflow
Delayed interflow
Groundwater Runoff/flow
Another route for the infiltered water is to
undergo deep percolation and reach the
groundwater storage in the soil
The groundwater follows

a complicated and long path of travel, and ultimately reaches the
surface
large time lag, being of the order of months and years
provides the dry-weather flow in perennial

streams
Classification of Runoff
Based on the time delay between the precipitation
and the runoff
Direct Runoff: part of runoff which enters the stream

immediately after the precipitation
Surface runoff
Prompt interflow
Precipitation on the channel surface
Base Flow: The delayed flow that reaches a stream

essentially as groundwater flow
Streamflow
A stream can be defined as a flow channel into which
surface runoff from a specified basin drains.
Stream-flow represent the runoff phase of the hydrologic

cycle.
Stream-flow is amenable to fairly accurate measurement

in contrast to evaporation, precipitation,
evapotranspiration etc.
There is considerable exchange of water between a

stream and underground water.
Stream-flow measurement
techniques (Hydrometry)
Direct measurement
Area-velocity method
Dilution technique
Electromagnetic method
Ultrasonic method
Indirect measurement
Hydraulic structures, such as weirs, flumes and gated
structures
Slope area method
General
Stream-flow is measured in units of discharge (m3/s) at a
specified time and constitute historical data
Continuous measurement of discharge is very difficult.
Direct measurement of discharge is very time consuming and

costly.
Two step procedure is followed

Discharge in a given stream is related to elevation of the
water surface (stage) through a series of careful
measurements.
Stage of the stream is observed routinely and discharge is
estimated by stage discharge relationship.
Have you seen a scale in river bridge piers???

Stage discharge relationship
stage discharge relationship curve

Measurement of stage
It is defined as the water surface elevation
measured above a datum (can be MSL or any
arbitrary datum).
Manual stage measurement

Staff gauge
Wire gauge
Automatic stage measurement

Float gauge recorder
Bubble gauge
Staff gauges
Vertical Staff Gauge Sectional Staff Gauge

Float gauge recorder
Float Gauge recorders

Stage data presentation
Presented in the form of plot
of stage against
chronological time, known
as stage hydrograph
Uses
Determination of stream
discharge
Flood warning and flood
protection works
Reliable long term data to
peak floods can be analyzed
statistically to estimate design
peak river stages for use in the
design of the hydraulic
structures, such as bridges,
weirs etc.
Stage Discharge relation ship (rating
curve)
First a stage discharge relationship has to be
developed to use the stage data
Thus the main aim of measuring stream-flow is to

establish this rating curve
Let G be the stage and Q be the discharge. Once the

relationship is established, later just measure only the
stage and read the discharge from rating curve.
First plot the discharges against the stages measured.

If the relationship is permanent and does not vary with respect
to time it is called permanent control else it is called shifting
control
Stage discharge curve
Relationship (for Permanent Control)
Q=Cr(G-a)
Where Q discharge, G - is the stage, a is a constant which represent
the gauge reading corresponding to zero discharge (normally
estimated by extrapolating in the plot, since the measurement is
almost very difficult)
Cr and are rating curve constants
The best value are estimated either by method of least square or by

graphical method
logQ= log(G-a)+logCr
Plot the measured values and find the constants
The above equation is called as rating equation.
Step 1
Solve? Develop a stage discharge relationship for the
measured data. Find stage for a discharge of 2600
m3/s.
Stage Discharge Step 1
(m) (m3/s) ln(G-a) ln Q 26.00
21.95 100 -0.654 4.606

22.45 220 0.020 5.394 25.00
22.8 295 0.315 5.688

23 400 0.451 5.992 24.00
Stage (m)
23.4 490 0.678 6.195
23.57 500 0.761 6.215
23.00
23.65 640 0.798 6.462
24.05 780 0.963 6.660
22.00
24.55 1010 1.138 6.918
24.85 1220 1.230 7.107
21.00
25.4 1300 1.379 7.171
0 200 400 600 800 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800
25.15 1420 1.314 7.259 Discharge (cu.m/s)
25.55 1550 1.416 7.347 But actual measured is 20.5 m

25.9 1760 1.498 7.474 only????????
From the graph the value of a (discharge for zero stag is 21.50 m)
Contd
1.50
(G-a) =
Fit Results
Fit 1: Linear, Y=B*X+A

Equation:
1.00 Y = 0.726826 * X + -3.89026
0.0205Q0.7268
Average X = 6.46345
Average Y = 0.807547
Residual sum of squares = 0.0538442
0.50 Residual mean square, sigma-hat-sq'd = 0.00448702
Stage (m)
G=27.63 m for a discharge
of 2600 m3/s
0.00
(G-a) =
0.163Q0.466 -0.50
G=26.85 m for measured a

of 20.5 m -1.00
Else??
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Discharge (cu.m/s)
Contd
This method holds good if the flow is virgin flow
Stream-flow should be purely from runoff only
If there is reservoir release or
There is a back water effect
Then we need site specific relationship and the

available rating curve need to be either
extrapolated or modified accordingly
First step in measuring the discharge is
the Measurement of velocity
Commonly measured by a mechanical device called current meter.
It measures the velocity at a point in the flow.
It consists of a rotating element which rotates due to reaction of the

stream current with an angular velocity proportional to the stream
velocity.
Two main types of current meter

Vertical axis meters
Horizontal axis meters
Approximate stream velocity can be determined by floats.

Current meter
It is so designed that its rotation speed varies linearly
with the stream velocity at the location of the
instrument.
v = a Ns + b
Where
v = stream velocity at the instrument location in m/s
Ns = revolutions per second of the meter
a, b = constants of meter
Each instrument has a threshold velocity below which

above equation is not valid.
No of revolutions are counted for a known interval of

time.
Horizontal axis meters
Vertical axis meters

Calibration of Current meter
The relation between stream velocity and revolutions per seconds
of the current meter is called calibration equation.
Calibration equation is unique to each instrument.
It is determined by towing the instrument in a special tank.
The towing tank is a long channel containing still water with

arrangements for moving a carriage longitudinally over its surface
at constant speed.
The instrument to be calibrated is immersed to a specified depth.
Average value of revolutions per seconds (Ns) are determined for

a predetermined constant speed (v). This is repeated over a
complete range of velocities and a best fit linear relationship is
formed.
Velocity measurement by Floats
Floating objects on the surface of a stream when timed can yield the surface velocity.
(first used by ????????? Remember it)
S
vS
where t
S = distance traveled in time t
Useful for
A small stream in floods
Small stream with rapidly changing water surface
Preliminary surveys
Types
Surface floats
Canisters floats
Rod floats
Area velocity method
It consist of the measurement of the area of cross
section of the river at a selected section and measuring
the velocity through it.
Q = AV
Criteria for gauging site

The stream should have a well-defined cross-section which does
not change in various seasons.
It should be easily accessible all through the year.
The site should be in a straight, stable reach.
The gauging site should be free from backwater effects in the
channel.
Contd
Cross section area is divided into a large no of cross subsections by
verticals.
The velocity in these subsections are measured by current meter.
Accuracy of discharge measurement increase with no of

subsections which also increase time, effort and expenditure .
Guidelines for selection of subsections

The segment width should not be greater than 1/15 to 1/20 of the width
of the river.
The discharge in each segment should be less than 10% of the total
discharge.
The difference of velocities in adjacent segments should not be more
than 20%.
Cross-section of a stream to measure the
discharge
Variation of stream velocity with
depth
Variation of stream velocity with depth

Steps in finding the discharge after
measuring the area and velocity
If qi is discharge in elemental area
Width is given by (W i+W i+1)/2
If di is depth at velocity measurement
Area of element is ai= di* (W i+W i+1)/2
for I = 2, 3, 4, ..n-2
For segment 1 and N it is triangle
2 2

W W2 W W N 1
1 2 N 2
a1 d1 aN dN
2W 2W N
1

Discharge in elemental area qi=ai*vi
Total discharge is N
Q a i vi
i 1
Solve?
The data for a stream gauging station is as follows. The rating equation
of current meter is given as v 0.51N s 0.03 m / s
Ns is number of revolutions per second
Distance from left Depth (m) Number of revolution of a Duration of
edge (m) current meter kept at observation
Average Velocity Segmental
0.6 m depth
width (m) (m/s) discharge cu.m/s
0 0 0 0 0 - -
1 1.1 39 100 2 0.229 0.504
3 2 58 100 2 0.326 1.303
5 2.5 112 150 2 0.411 2.054
7 2 90 150 2 0.336 1.344
9 1.7 45 100 2 0.260 0.882
11 1 30 100 2 0.183 0.366
12 0 0 0 0 - -
6.453
Moving-Boat Method
In large rivers standard
current meter is very time
consuming and it is difficult to
keep the boat stationary.
Propeller type current meter is

used which is free to move
about its vertical axis is used.
If Boat velocity is Vb, Flow

velocity is Vf and Resultant
velocity is VR (meter align
itself in the direction of
resultant velocity)
vb = vR cos and vf =vR sin
Moving boat method
Contd.
If the time of transit between two verticals is t, then the width
between the two verticals
W = vb t
The flow in the sub-area between two verticals i and i+1 where the
depths are yi and yi+1 respectively, by assuming the current meter
to measure the average velocity in the vertical, is
Stream discharge
Q = Qi
Solve
? The following data has been obtained in a moving boat.
Determine the discharge in the stream. The sections are
spaced at a constant distance of 75 m apart.
Angle made by current meter
Resultant velocity with the direction of boat
Section (m/s) movement (degrees) Depth (m)
0 Right bank - 0
1 1.75 55 1.8
2 1.84 57 2.5
3 2.00 60 3.5
4 2.28 64 3.8
5 2.30 65 4.0
6 2.20 63 3.8
7 2.00 60 3.0
8 1.84 57 2.5
9 1.70 54 2.0
10 Left bank - 0.0
Discharge = 3458 cu.m/s

Dilution technique for stream flow
measurement
It depends upon the continuity principle applied to a
tracer which is allowed to mix completely with the flow.
For a constant injection method if
Co = small initial concentration of the tracer in the stream-flow
C1 = high tracer concentration at section 1 where tracer is added
C2 = tracer concentration at section 2 where tracer mixes
thoroughly with the fluid due to the turbulent mixing process
Qt=discharge of tracer and Q-is discharge in the stream
i.e.
Solve
?A 500 g/l tracer was injected at a constant
rate of 4l/s. At downstream length the
concentration of tracer was measured as 4
ppm. If initial tracer concentration in the
stream was zero. Estimate the stream
discharge?
Discharge Q = 500 m3/s
Tracer
Ideal properties of tracer:
It should not be absorbed by the sediment, channel boundary
and vegetation. It should not chemically react with any of the
above surfaces and also should not be lost by evaporation.
It should be non-toxic.
It should be capable of being detected in a distinctive manner
in small concentrations.
It should not be very expensive.
Types of tracer:
Chemicals (common salt and sodium dichromate )
Fluorescent dyes (Rhodamine-WT and Sulpho-Rhodamine B
Extra )
Radioactive materials (such as Bromine-82, Sodium-24 and
Iodine-132) (radioactive tracers).
Hydrograph
A plot of the discharge in a stream plotted against
time chronologically
10
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
11
26
40
41
55
70
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
0 12
Rainfall
5 Crust 10
Time Lag 10
Recession
8
Limb
Runoff (V/t)
15
20
Peak Discharge 4
25
Base flow line

Rising 2
30
Limb
35 0
Time
Depending upon the unit of time involved
Annual hydrographs: daily or weekly or 10 daily

mean flows over a year
Monthly hydrographs: daily mean flows over a

month
Seasonal hydrographs: discharge in a particular

season such, as the monsoon season or dry season;
and
Flood hydrographs or hydrographs due to a storm

representing stream flow due to a storm over a
catchment
Each of these types have particular
applications
Annual and seasonal hydrographs

Calculating the surface water potential of stream
Reservoir studies
Drought studies
Flood hydrographs
Analyzing stream characteristics associated with
floods
Water Year
In annual runoff studies it is advantageous to
consider a water year
Time when the precipitation exceeds the average

evapotranspiration losses
In India, June Ist - May 31st of the following calendar year
Complete cycle of climatic changes is expected and

hence the water budget will have the least amount of
carry over
Runoff Characteristics of
Streams
Classification of stream based on
annual hydrographs of streams
Perennial
Intermittent
Ephemeral
Perennial Stream
which always carries some flow
There is considerable amount of groundwater flow throughout the year
Even during dry seasons the water table will be above the bed of the stream
Intermittent Stream
During the wet season the water table is above the stream bed and
there is a contribution of the base flow to the stream flow
During dry seasons the water table drops to a level lower than that of the
stream bed and the stream dries up
Ephemeral Stream
Does not have any base-flow contribution
The annual hydrograph, shows series of short-duration spikes marking flash

flows in response to storms
Becomes dry soon after the end of the storm flow

Characteristics of Streams based on
ground water contribution
Effluent streams
Influent streams
Flow characteristics of a stream
depend upon
Rainfall characteristics
Magnitude intensity
Distribution time
Space and its variability
Catchment characteristics
Soil
Vegetation
slope, geology, shape
Drainage density
Climatic factors which influence

evapotranspiration.
YIELD
(ANNUAL RUNOFF VOLUME)
The total quantity of water that can be expected from a
stream in a given period
The calculation of yield is of fundamental importance in all

water-resources development studies
Methods to estimate yield

Empirical equations
Correlation of stream flow and rainfall,
Time series modeling, ANN, GP and MT models
Watershed simulations
Block Box Models
Conceptual models
Physical models
Types of Rainfall-Runoff models Models
Empirical models: based on observational data and

calibrated input-output relationship without description of
individual processes
Conceptual models: basic processes (evaporation, etc.) are

separated to some extent, but their algorithms are
essentially calibrated input-output relationships
Physically based models: based on reliable relationships

between watershed characteristics and the parameters
Empirical Equations
Binnie's Percentages
Barlow's Tables
Strange's Tables
Inglis and DeSouza Formula
Khosla's Formula
SCS-CN technique
Binnie's Percentages
Sir Alexander Binnie measured the runoff from a
small catchment near Nagpur (Area of 16 km2 )
during 1869 and 1872
Developed curves of cumulative runoff against

cumulative rainfall
Established percentages of runoff from rainfall
These percentages are beening used in Madhya

Pradesh and Vidarbha region of Maharashtra for
the estimation of yield
Barlow's Tables
Barlow, the first Chief Engineer of the Hydro-
Electric Survey of India (1915)
Conducted study on small catchments (area~

130Km)in Uttar Pradesh expressed runoff R as
R = Kb P
where Kb = runoff coefficient

which depends upon
type of catchment
nature of monsoon rainfall.
Barlows Runoff Coefficient Kb in Percentage
Class Description of catchment Values of Kb (percentage)

Season Season Season
1 2 3
A Flat, cultivated and absorbent soils 7 10 15
B Flat, partly cultivated and stiff soils 12 15 18
C Average catchment 16 20 32
D Hills and plains with little cultivation 28 35 60
E Very hilly, steep and hardly any 36 45 81
cultivation
Season 1: light rain, no heavy downpour
Season 2: Average or varying rainfall, no continuous downpour
Season 3: Continuous downpour
Strange's (1928) Tables
Data on rainfall and runoff in the border areas, of Maharashtra and
Karnataka and obtained the values of the runoff coefficient
Ks = R/P
as a function of the catchment character
Catchments were characterized as "good", "average" and "bad'.
Strange also gave a table for calculating the daily runoff from daily
rainfall.
In this the runoff coefficient depends not only on the amount of

rainfall but also on the state of the ground.
Three categories of the original ground state as 'dry', 'damp' and

'wet' are used by him
Extract of Stranges Table of Runoff Coefficient Ks in
Percent
Total monsoon Runoff coefficient Ks percent

rainfall (cm)
Good Catchment Average Bad Catchment
Catchment
25 4.3 3.2 2.1
50 15 11.3 7.5
75 26.3 19.7 13.1
100 37.5 28 18.7
125 47.6 35.7 23.8
150 58.9 44.1 29.4

Inglis and DeSouza (1929)
Formula
Stream gauging in 53 sites in Western
India resulted, two regional formulae
between annual runoff R in cm and annual
rainfall p in cm as follows:
For Ghat regions of western India
R = 0.85 P - 30.5
For Deccan plateau
1
R P P 17.8
254
Khosla's Formula
Monthly data on rainfall, runoff and temperature data for
various catchments in India and USA considered
Rm = Pm - Lm
Lm = 0.48 Tm for Tm > 4.5C
where Rm = Monthly runoff in cm and Rm 0

Pm = monthly rainfall in cm
Lm = monthly losses in cm
Tm = mean monthly temperature of the catchment in C
For Tm 4.5C, the loss Lm may provisionally be assumed as

ToC 4.5 -1 -6.5
Lm (cm) 2.17 1.78 1.52
Annual runoff = Rm
Watershed Simulation
Water-budget equation for the determination of
runoff
Rs = P - Eet f - S
R = Rs + Go
Rs = surface runoff,
P = precipitation,
Eet = actual evapotranspiration,
G0 = net groundwater outflow and
S = change in the soil moisture storage
f = infiltration loss
The sum of Rs and Go is considered to be given by

the total runoff R, i.e. stream-flow
Disadvantages of Conceptual and
Physically based Models
Data Intensive
Complex and large number of parameters are
involved
Implementation and calibration of such a model
can typically present various difficulties
Requiring sophisticated mathematical tools,
significant amounts of calibration data and
some degree of expertise and experience with
the model.
Data on the physical characteristics of the
catchment are available at the grid scale is
required
Data required for RR Modeling
The data required to develop a model for particular
watershed includes
Soil characteristics,
initial soil moisture,
infiltration, and
groundwater flow.
But these data are not easily available as compared
to the rainfall (P) and runoff (Q) data.
In most of the studies, variable P is selected in order
to forecast Q.
All the rainfall data are lumped with respect to time
and a single time series rainfall data will be used to
predict the runoff
Two simple RR models, but widely
used RR models
1. Rainfall-Runoff Correlation n PR P R
a
R= aP+b

n P P
2 2
R = runoff
P = precipitation
R a P
a = is the slope b
b = is the intercept n
r = coefficient of correlation
n PR P R
r
n P P X n R R
2 2 2 2
Develop a linear RR model
Month P R Month P (cm) R
(cm) (m3/s) (m3/s)
1 5 0.5 10 30 8.0
2 35 10.0 11 10 2.3
3 40 13.8 12 8 1.6
4 30 8.2 13 2 0.0
5 15 3.1 14 22 6.5
6 10 3.2 15 30 9.4
7 5 0.1 16 25 7.6
8 31 12.0 17 8 1.5
9 36 16.0 18 6 0.5
20
Fit Results
18 Fit 2: Linear, Y=B*X+A

Equation:
Y = 0.380197 * X + -1.55603
16 Average X = 19.3333
Average Y = 5.79444
14 Residual sum of squares = 30.5424
Residual mean square, sigma-hat-sq'd = 1.9089
Runoff (cu.m/s)
Coef. of correlation, R = 0.964

12
10
0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42
Rainfall in cm
Developing Multi Linear Regression Models
In the linear regression model, the dependent variable is assumed to
be a linear function of one or more independent variables plus an
error introduced to account for all other factors.
The multiple linear regression models are represented in equation
as:
y = m1x1 + m2x2 + m3x3 ++ mnxn + c
The general multiple linear regression model considered is given in
equation
Various models have been generated, by varying the value of m and
n in the equation and 26 different models have been developed.70
% of data used for training and 30 % used for testing
Q (t+1) = f {P (t), P (t-1), P (t -m), Q(t)Q (t-1),, Q (t - n)}
Study Area
Study area : Koyna watershed, Krishna Basin, District-Satara,
Maharashtra, India
Latitude 730 34' 43" and 730 4428 N Longitude -170 23 33
and 170 56 E
Watershed has a drainage area of 891.78 km2
Daily rainfall (P) data for nine rain gauge stations (1961-2007)
Daily runoff (Q) data at Koyna dam available for (1961-2007).
Hourly rainfall -runoff data available for 2005-2007 (3 years)
Raingauge Latitude Longitude % Contri Area
Station (N) (E) bution in Sq.Km
Pratapgad 730 34' 43" 170 56' 02" 6.2 55.31
Mah. 730 40' 21" 170 55' 23" 5.72 50.99
Sonat 730 42' 30" 170 50' 14" 16.24 144.83
Location of Koyna Walawan 730 35' 43" 170 44' 17" 13.34 119
watershed Bamnoli 730 45' 43" 170 43' 46" 14.84 132.32
Karagaon 730 76' 47" 170 39' 17" 17.49 155.96
Kathi 730 49' 36" 170 29' 18" 14.61 130.29
Nawja 730 43' 24" 170 25' 37" 7.73 68.92
Koyna Dam 730 44' 28" 170 23' 33" 3.83 34.16
Correlation Matrix
Station Mahabl Walvan Pratap Navja Sonat Kati Kargaon Bamnoli Koyna Koyna
eshwar gad Inflow
Mahble 1.00 - - - - - - - - -
shwar
Walvan 0.96 1.00 - - - - - - - -
Prtapga 0.97 0.96 1.00 - - - - - -
d
Navja 0.97 0.96 0.97 1.00 - - - - - -
Sonat 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96 1.00 - - - -
Kati 0.97 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.96 1.00 - - - -
Kargaon 0.89 0.89 0.89 0.90 0.90 0.88 1.00 - - -
Bamnoli 0.97 0.96 0.95 0.96 0.98 0.95 0.90 1.00 - -
Koyna 0.98 0.97 0.95 0.97 0.97 0.96 0.91 0.97 1.00 -
Koyna 0.95 0.90 0.94 0.93 0.91 0.93 0.80 0.90 0.91 1.00
Inflow
1.000
Coefficient of correlation
0.900
0.800
0.700
0.600
0.500
0.400
0.300
0.200
0.100
0.000
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43
Lag in days
Cross correlation plot average Rainfall/ daily Inflow
1.0
1.0
0.8
Partial Autocorrelation
0.8
0.6
0.6 0.4
(with 5% significance limits for the autocorrelations)
0.4
Autocorrelation
0.2 (with 5% significance limits for the partial autocorrelations)

0.2 0.0
0.0 -0.2
-0.2 -0.4
-0.4 -0.6
-0.6 -0.8
-0.8 -1.0
-1.0
1 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
1 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Lag
Lag
Autocorrelation function plot Partial autocorrelation plot

750.00 0.00
700.00 50.00
650.00
100.00
600.00
150.00
550.00
200.00
Daily Inflow in ( Mm3)
Average Rainfall(mm)
500.00
450.00 250.00
400.00 300.00
350.00 350.00
300.00 400.00
250.00
450.00
200.00
500.00
150.00
550.00
100.00
50.00 600.00
0.00 650.00
1/1/1961
1/1/1963
1/1/1965
1/1/1967
1/1/1969
1/1/1971
1/1/1973
1/1/1975
1/1/1977
1/1/1979
1/1/1981
1/1/1983
1/1/1985
1/1/1987
1/1/1989
1/1/1991
1/1/1993
1/1/1995
1/1/1997
1/1/1999
1/1/2001
1/1/2003
1/1/2005
1/1/2007
Day start from 1/1/1961 to 31/12/2007 (47 Years)
Time series plot of daily average rainfall and daily inflow

Time series plot of annual rainfall
8000
7000
Annual Rainfall
6000 Mean Rainfall
Total annual rainfall in mm
5000
4000
3000
2000
1000
9 61 963 965 967 969 971 973 975 977 979 981 983 985 987 989 991 993 995 997 999 001 003 005 007
1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 1 2 2 2 2
Years starting from 1961
99
N 47
AD 0.897
P -V a lu e 0.020
90
Percent
50
10
1
0 2500 5000 7500
Probability plot of annual rainfall

99
N 47
AD 0.317
90 P-Value 0.528
Percent
50
10
1
-2 0 2
Normal probability plot of annual rainfall Histogram with normal distribution plot for
(Transformed data) annual rainfall series
Statistical properties of different series of annual rainfall
Trend Analysis plot for annual rainfall for stationarity
Coeff of
Series Mean Std.Dev Skewness Kurtosis
var.
Entire Series 3930.88 1466.43 0.37 -0.25 0.15
First half 3269.01 1489.29 0.46 -0.22 -1.11
Second half 4621.53 1095.88 0.24 1.03 0.20
First one
3195.24 1562.50 0.49 0.04 -1.06
third
Second one
3815.05 1004.49 0.32 -1.27 1.44
third
last one third 4775.11 1203.43 0.25 0.89 -0.53
8000
An nual Rainfall
+ ve Outliers 7000 Me an Rainfall
Annual Rainfall in mm
Me an +S.D
Me an-S.D
Upper 6000 S eries5
whisker 5000
4000
3000
2000
Median
1000
Lower
0
whisker
1961
1964
1967
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
-ve Outliers
Time in Years
Box plot of annual rainfall series Time series plot showing annual rainfall, mean and
standard deviation.
1.0 1.0
0.8 0.8
(with 5% significance limits for the partial autocorrelations)
0.6 0.6
Partial Autocorre lation

0.4 0.4
Autocorrelation
0.2 0.2
0.0 0.0
-0.2 -0.2
-0.4 -0.4
-0.6 -0.6
-0.8 -0.8
-1.0 -1.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Lag Lag
Autocorrelation function plot annual rainfall Partial autocorrelation function plot for annual
rainfall
3000.00
99 .9 N 153
99 AD 6 .1 2 9
2500.00
P-Va l u e <0 .0 0 5
90
Daily average rainfall in mm
Percent
2000.00
50
1500.00
10
1000.00
1
0 .1
500.00
0 2 50 0 50 0 0
0.00
1 8 15 22 29 36 43 50 57 64 71 78 85 92 99 106 113 120 127 134 141 148
Probability plot of daily average rainfall
Time in days starting from 1 June to 31 Oct data
P r obability P lot for T r ansfor med Data
Daily average rainfall for a period of 47 years (1961-2007) 99.9 N 153
35 Mean -0.05237
99 AD 0.717
StDev 0.9683 P-Value 0.060
30 N 153 90
Percent
25 50
Frequency
20
10
15
1
10 0.1
-4 -2 0 2
5
Normal probability plot of daily
0
-3 -2 -1 0 1 2 3 average rainfall (transformed data)
Transformed rainfall values
350
O b served Rain f all
T ren d lin e
300
Daily Rainfall in mm
Yt = 8 .0 3 0 7 6 + 0 .0 0 0 3 1 8 3 5 3 * t
250
200
150
100
50
0
1 1717 3434 5151 6868 8585 10302 12019 13736 15453
T im e in D ays s tarting fro m 1 J an 1 9 6 1 to 3 1 D e c 2 0 0 7
Trend analysis of daily rainfall values
3000
Upper
2500 whisker
Avearge daily Rainfall in mm
2000
1500
Median
1000
1.0
500
0.8 (with 5% significance limits for the partial autocorrelations)
Lower whisker
0.6
0
0.4
0.2
Box plot of daily average rainfall 0.0
-0.2
1.0 -0.4
0.8 -0.6
0.6 -0.8
0.4 -1.0
Autocorrelation
0.2 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30
Lag
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
Partial autocorrelation function plot of daily average
-0.6 rainfall
-0.8
-1.0
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30
Lag
Autocorrelation function plot of daily average rainfall

7000.00
6000.00
Annual Inflow
Mean Inflow
5000.00
3
Annual Inflowin Mm
4000.00
3000.00
2000.00
1000.00
0.00
1961
1963
1965
1967
1969
1971
1973
1975
1977
1979
1981
1983
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
Time in Years
Time series plot of annual Inflow

99
N 47
95 AD 0.665
P-Value 0.078
90
80
Probability %
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
5
1 9
0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 Mean -0.04936
StDev 1.079
Probability plot of annual inflow (Original data) 8
N 47
7
99 6
Frequency %
N 47
AD 0.335 5
90
Probability %
P-Va lu e 0.496
4
50 3
2
10 1
0
1 -2.4 -1.6 -0.8 0.0 0.8 1.6 2.4
-4 -2 0 2 Inflow
Normal probability plot of annual inflow Histogram with normal distribution plot for annual inflow
(transformed data)
7000
A nnual Inflow 7000
Trend line
6000 +ve Outliers

Annual Inflow in Mm3
6000
Yt = 3775.03 + 1.38094*t
Annual Inflow in Mm3

5000 Upper
5000 whisker
4000
4000
Median
3000
3000
Lower whisker
2000
1 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 2000
Times in Years
Trend Annual Inflows Box plot of Annual inflow series.
Series Mean Std. Dev coeff of var. skewness Kurtossis
Entire Sereis 3847.80 726.69 0.19 -0.12 0.25
First half 3847.80 726.69 0.19 -0.12 0.25
Second half 3766.82 1280.96 0.34 0.97 -0.08
First one third 3862.34 860.16 0.22 -0.19 -0.22

Second one
third 3646.26 705.32 0.19 0.11 -0.48
last one third 3919.30 1410.44 0.36 0.81 -0.64
Stationarity for annual inflow series.

1.0
0.8
0.6 (with 5% significance limits for the autocorrelations)

0.4
Autocorrelation
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
-1.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Lag
Autocorrelation function plot of annual inflow
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
-1.0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Lag
Partial autocorrelation function plot of annual inflow

99.9 35
N 153 Mean 0.01476
99 AD 6.750 StDev 0.9265
P-Value <0.005 30
N 153
Probability %
90
25
Frequency %
50
20
10 15
1 10
0.1
-50 0 50 100 5
0
Probability plot of daily average Inflow -3 -2 -1 0 1 2
Daily Inflow
original data
-50 0 50 100
99.9 Normal Distribution plot with histogram
N 153
99
AD 0.670
(Transformed Data)
Probability %
P-Value 0.079
90
50
10
1
0.1
-4 -2 0 2
Probability plot with daily average
inflow (Transformed data )
350
O b served d aily in f low
T ren d lin e
300
Daily Inflow in Mm3
250 Yt = 1 0 .2 2 0 4 + 0 .0 0 0 0 2 4 0 9 9 4 * t
200
150
100
50
0
1 17 17 34 34 51 51 6 86 8 8 58 5 1 030 2 1 20 19 137 36 15 453
T im e in D ays s tarting fro m 1 J an 1 9 6 1 to 3 1 D e c 2 0 0 7
Trend Plot of Daily Inflow

Statistical properties of different series of daily average inflow for stationarity
1.0
Coeff 0.8
Series Mean Std.Dev of var Skew Kurt 0.6

0.4
A utocorrelation
Entire Series 24.89 20.11 0.81 0.40 -1.39
0.2
First half 35.36 21.25 0.60 -0.49 -1.45 0.0
-0.2
Second half 14.55 12.06 0.83 0.88 -0.25
-0.4
First one third 26.00 19.88 0.76 0.13 -1.70 -0.6
-0.8
Second one
-1.0
third 42.13 13.90 0.33 -0.21 -1.43
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30
last one third 7.22 4.62 0.64 0.61 -0.79 Lag
Autocorrelation function plot of daily
inflow series
60
Upper
1.0
Whisker
50 0.8
0.6
40 0.4
Daily Inflow
0.2
30
0.0
-0.2
20
Median -0.4
-0.6
10
Lower -0.8
0 Whisker -1.0
1 5 10 15 20 25 30 35
Lag
Box plot of daily average inflow
Partial Autocorrelation function plot of daily inflow
Performance criteria's
N
Pearsons Correlation Q
t 1
obs
(t ) Q obs Qest (t ) Q est
Coefficient (R) N 2 2
Q
t 1
obs (t ) Q obs Q est (t ) Q est
E1 E2
Nash Sutcliff efficiency E
E1
(E) N 2
E 2 Qest (t ) Qobs (t )
t 1
N

2
E1 Qobs (t ) Q obs
t 1
N 2
Mean Square Error MSE

i 1 Qest (t ) Qobs (t )
(MSE) N
Selection of input variables
1.000
Coefficient of correlation
0.900
0.800
0.700
0.600
0.500
0.400
0.300
0.200
0.100
0.000
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43
Lag in days
Cross correlation Average Rainfall/ Daily Inflow

1.0
1.0 0.8
0.8 0.6
0.6 0.4
0.4 0.2
Autocorrelation

0.2 0.0
0.0 -0.2
-0.2 -0.4
-0.4 -0.6
-0.6 -0.8
-0.8 -1.0
-1.0 1 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40
1 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 Lag
Lag
Partial autocorrelation plot

Autocorrelation plot
Model Input-Output Structures
Models Input Structure No. of Output
variables
Time series Models
Model 1 Q (t) 1 Q (t+1)
Model 2 Q (t-1), Q (t) 2 Q (t+1)
Model 3 Q (t-2), Q (t-1), Q (t) 3 Q (t+1)

Model 4 Q(t-3), Q(t-2), Q(t-1), Q(t)} 4 Q (t+1)
Model 5 Q(t-4),Q(t-3), Q(t-2), Q(t-1), Q(t)} 5 Q (t+1)
Model 6 Q(t-5),Q(t-4),Q(t-3), Q(t-2), Q(t-1), Q(t) 6 Q (t+1)
Model 7 Q(t-6), Q(t-5),Q(t-4),Q(t-3), Q(t-2), Q(t-1), Q(t)} 7 Q (t+1)
Model 8 Q(t-7),Q(t-6), Q(t-5),Q(t-4),Q(t-3), Q(t-2), Q(t-1), Q(t) 8 Q (t+1)
Casue Effect Models

Model 9 P (t) 1 Q (t+1)
Model 10 P (t-1), P (t)} 2 Q (t+1)
Model 11 P (t-2), P (t-1), P (t)} 3 Q (t+1)
Model 12 P(t-3),P(t-2),P(t-1),P(t)} 4 Q (t+1)
Model 13 P(t-4),P(t-3),P(t-2),P(t-1),P(t)} 5 Q (t+1)
Model 14 P (t-5), P(t-4),P(t-3),P(t-2),P (t-1), P (t)} 6 Q (t+1)
Model 15 P(t-6),P (t-5), P(t-4),P(t-3),P(t-2),P (t-1), P (t)} 7 Q (t+1)
Model 16 P(t-7),(t-6),P (t-5), P(t-4),P(t-3),P(t-2),P (t-1), P (t)} 8 Q (t+1)
Model 17 P(t-8),P(t-7),(t-6),P (t-5), P(t-4),P(t-3), P(t-2),P (t-1), P (t)} 9 Q (t+1)
Model 18 P(t-9),P(t-8),P(t-7),(t-6),P (t-5), P(t-4),P(t-3),P(t-2),P (t-1), P (t) 10 Q (t+1)
Model 19 P(t-10),P(t-9),P(t-8),P(t-7),(t-6),P (t-5), P(t-),P(t-3),P(t-2),P (t-1), P (t) 11 Q (t+1)

variables
Combined Models
Model 20 Q (t+1) = P (t), Q (t) 2 Q (t+1)
Model 21 P (t-1), P (t), Q (t) 3 Q (t+1)
Model 22 P(t-2),P (t-1), P (t), Q (t) 4 Q (t+1)
Model 23 P (t-3), P (t-2), P (t-1), P(t),Q(t) 5 Q (t+1)
Model 24 P (t-1), P (t),Q(t-1), Q (t} 4 Q (t+1)
Model 25 P(t-10), P(t-9), P(t-8), P(t-7), P(t-6) P(t-5),P(t-4),P(t-3), P(t-2), P(t-1), P(t), Q(t-6),Q(t-5), Q(t- 18 Q (t+1)
4),Qt-3), Q(t-2), Q(t-1), Q(t)
Model 26 P(t-10), P(t-9), P(t-8), P(t-7), P(t-6), P(t-5) 17 Q (t+1)

P(t-4),P(t-3), P(t-2), P(t-1), P(t), Q(t-5), Q(t-4), Q(t-3), Q(t-2), Q(t-1), Q(t)
Models equations developed by regression Method
Time series models
Model 1: Q (t+1) = 0.889Q (t) +1.1480
Model 2: Q (t+1) = -0.037Q (t-1) +0.921Q (t) +1.190
Model 3: Q (t+1) = 0.108Q (t-2)-0.137Q (t-1) +0.925Q (t) +1.06
Model 4: Q (t+1) = 0.022Q (t-3) +0.088Q (t-2)-0.134Q (t-1) +0.923Q (t) +1.038
Model 5: Q (t+1) = 0.041Q (t-4)-0.0162Q (t-3) +0.0093Q (t-2)-0.137Q (t-1) +0.922Q (t) +0.996
Model 6 : Q(t+1) = 0.019Q(t-5)-0.024Q(t-4)-0.013Q(t-3)+-0.092Q(t-1)+0.922Q(t)-0.137Q(t-

1)+0.921Q(t)+0.977
Model 7: Q (t+1) = -0.0632Q(t-6)-0.039Q(t-5)+0.032Q(t-4)+-0.0192Q(t-3)-0.922Q(t-2)-

0.1382Q(t-1)+0.921Q(t)+0.915
Model 8: Q (t+1) = 0.001 Q (t-7) + 0.0621 P (t-6) 0.0392 Q (t-5) + 0.032 Q (t-4)- 0.0192Q(t-
3)+0.092 Q(t-2)-0.138Q(t-1)+0.920Q(t)+0.915
Cause Effect Models
Model 9: Q (t+1) = 0.832P (t) +2.137
Model 10: Q (t+1) = 0.675P (t-1) +0.178 P (t) +1.930
Model 11: Q (t+1) = 0.669 P (t-2) +0.258P (t-1)-0.085P (t)+2.066
Model 12 : Q (t+1) = 0.672 P (t-3) +0.253P (t-2)-0.059P (t-1)-0.027P (t) +2.066
Model13 :Q(t+1) = 0.673P(t-4)+0.254P(t-3)-0.062P(t-2)-0.010P(t-1)-.018P(t)+2.085(45)
Model 14 : Q(t+1) = 0.674 P (t-5) +0.254P(t-4)-0.061P(t-3)-0.012P(t-2)-0.008P(t-1)0.010P(t) +2.075
Model 15 : Q(t+1) = 0.160P(t-6)+ 0.207P (t-5) +0.352P(t-4)-0.074P(t-3)-0.008P(t-2)-0.021P(t-1)-0.007P(t)

+0.692Q(t)+0.341
Model 16 : Q(t+1) = 0.354P(t-7)- 0.159P(t-6)+ 0.207P (t-5) +0.352P(t-4)-0.074P(t-3)-0.024P(t-2)-0.006P(t-

1)-0.014P(t) +0.692Q(t)+0.354
Model 17 : Q(t+1) = -0.159 P(t-8)+0.208P(t-7)+ 0.352P(t-6)-0.074 (t-5) -0.007P(t-4)-0.023P(t-3)-0.003P(t-

2)-0.001P(t-1)-0.014P(t) +0.692Q(t)+0.366
Model 18 : Q(t+1) = -0.158 P(t-9)-0.208 P(t-8)+0.352P(t-7)- 0.074P(t-6)-0.007 (t-5) -0.022P(t-4)+0.005P(t-

3)-0.005P(t-2)+0.007P(t-1)-0.022P(t) +0.692Q(t)+0.386
Model 19 : Q(t+1) = -0.158 P(t-10)-0.208 P(t-9)+0.352P(t-8)- 0.074P(t-7)-0.007 (t-6) -0.023P(t-

5)+0.005P(t-4)-0.005P(t-3)+0.007P(t-2)-0.024P(t-1) +0.003P(t)+0.692Q(t)+0.383
Combined Models
Model 20 : Q(t+1) = 0.214P(t)+0.766Q(t)+0.306 111.386
Model 21 : Q (t+1) = -0.186P (t-1) +0.471P (t) +0.679Q (t) +0.510 60.016
Model 22: Q (t+1) = -0.177P (t-2) +0.223P (t-1) +0.259P (t) +0.659Q (t) +0.159
Model 23 : Q(t+1) = -0.164P(t-3)+0.205P(t-2)+0.356P(t-1)-0.102P(t)+0.693Q(t)+0.270
Model 24 : Q (t+1) = -0.081P (t-1) +0.239P (t) -0.026Q (t-1) +0.777Q (t) +1.015
Model 25 : Q(t+1) = -0.025P(t-10)+0.015P(t-9)-0.041P(t-8)-0.042P(t-7)-0.020P(t-6)-0.113p(t-5)-0.073P(t-

4)+0.224P(t-3)=0.350P(t-2)-0.073P(t-1)-0.029P(t)+0.054Q(t-6)-0.009Q(t-5)+0.039Q(t-4)+0.009Q(t-
3)+0.134Q(t-2)+0.005Q(t-1)+0.601Q(t)+0.106
Model 26 : Q(t+1) = -0.015P(t-10)-0.056(t-9)-0.043P(t-8)-0.022P(t-7)-0.112P(t-6)-0.049P(t-5)+0.225P(t-

4)+0.351P(t-3)-0.076P(t-2)-0.006P(t-1)-0.024P(t)+0.006Q(t-5)-+0.041Q(t-4)+0.015Q(t-3)+0.135Q(t-
2)+0.007Q(t-1)+0.600Q(t)+0.163
Statistical performance from various regression Models
Model No. of input parameters R MSE E
Time series Models

Model 1 1 0.912 132.46 0.832
Model 2 2 0.911 135.94 0.827
Model 3 3 0.914 129.20 0.7918
Model 4 4 0.914 128.80 0.836
Model 5 5 0.915 128.63 0.836
Model 6 6 0.925 128.49 0.837
Model 7 7 0.914 129.07 0.837
Model 8 8 0.914 129.06 0.836
Casue Effect Models
Model 9 1 0.911 141.42 0.820
Model 10 2 0.906 149.46 0.810
Model 11 3 0.906 149.44 0.810
Model 12 4 0.906 149.60 0.810
Model 13 5 0.906 149.58 0.810
Model 14 6 0.906 149.32 0.809
Model 15 7 0.956 68.21 0.914
Model 16 8 0.956 67.92 0.923
Model 17 9 0.954 67.77 0.913
Model 18 10 0.956 67.37 0.914
Model 19 11 0.955 69.07 0.912
Statistical performance from various regression Models
Ctd.
No. of input
Model R MSE E
parameters
Combined Models
Model 20 2 0.926 111.387 0.858
Model 21 3 0.961 60.01 0.923
Model 22 4 0.955 69.37 0.911
Model 23 5 0.955 68.07 0.913
Model 24 4 0.924 114.2 0.859
Model 25 18 0.958 64.45 0.918
Model 26 17 0.957 66.91 0.915
350.0
300.0
Observed Runoff Plot of observed and predicted runoff for
Predicted Runoff
250.0 Model 21 (During validation period)
Runoff Mm3
200.0
150.0
100.0
50.0
0.0
1 312 623 934 1245 1556 1867 2178 2489 2800 3111 3422 3733 4044 4355 4666 4977
Time in Days
350
3
Predicted runoff in Mm
300 Scatter Plot for Model 21 (During

250
validation Period for best Regression
Model)
200
150
100
50
0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350
3
Observed Runoff in Mm
DISTRIBUTED DATA MODELS
variables
Distributed data Casue Effect Models
Model 1 P1 (t),P2(t), P3 (t), P4(t), P5 (t), P6 (t), P7 (t), P8 (t), P9 (t) 9 Q (t+1)
Model 2 P1 (t-1), P1(t), P2(t-1), P2(t), P3 (t-1), P3(t), P4(t-1), P4(t), P5 18 Q (t+1)
(t-1),P5(t), P6(t-1), P6(t), P7 (t-1), P7(t), P8(t-1), P8(t), P9(t-
1), P9(t)
Distributed data Combined Models
Model 3 10 Q (t+1)
P1 (t),P2(t), P3 (t),P4(t), P5 (t),P6(t), P7 (t),P8(t),P9(t),Q(t)
Model 4 P1 (t-1), P1(t), P2(t-1), P2(t), P3 (t-1), P3(t), P4(t-1), P4(t), P5 19 Q (t+1)
(t-1), P5(t), P6(t-1), P6(t), P7 (t-1), P7(t), P8(t-1), P8(t), P9(t-
1), P9(t), Q(t)
DISTRIBUTED DATA CAUSE EFFECT MODEL 1 (Developed Equation)
Model 1 : Q (t+1) = 0.296 P1 (t) +0.0185 P2(t) + 0.038 P3 (t) -0.0580 P4(t) +
0.0261P5 (t) + 0.0972P6 (t) + 0.0366 P7 (t) + 0.0217 P8 (t) + 0.2308 P9(t) +
1.269
DISTRIBUTED DATA CAUSE EFFECT MODEL 2 (Developed Equation)
Model 2 : Q(t+1) = 0.2386 P1 (t-1) + 0.1572P1 (t) -0.028 P2 (t-1)- 0.0165P2 (t) - 0.055
P3 (t-1)+ 0.001 P3 (t)+ 0.0042 P4 (t-1)+ 0.0043 P4 (t) - 0.0017 P5 (t-1) + 0.0232 P5 (t)
+0.078 P6 (t-1)+ 0.054 P6 (t)+ 0.0283 P7 (t-1)+ 0.013 P7 (t)+ 0.032P8(t-1)+ 0.031P8 (t)+
0.1403 P9 (t-1)+ 0.0709P9 (t)+ 0.856
DISTRIBUTED DATA COMBINED MODEL 3 (Developed Equation)
Model 3 : Q (t+1) = -0.022 P1 (t) +0.063 P2(t) +0.140 P3 (t) - 0.077 P4 (t) + 0.0033
P5 (t) +0.021 P6(t) +0.0991 P7 (t) -0.048 P8 (t)+ 0.0435 P9 (t)+ 0.779 Q(t)+ 0.7355
DISTRIBUTED DATA COMBINED MODEL 4 (Developed Equation)
Model 4 : Q (t+1) = 0.0061 P1 (t-1) + 0.049 P1(t)+ 0.0558P 2(t-1) + 0.0443 P2(t) -
0.03268 P3 (t-1) -0.031 P3(t) - 0.0332 P4 (t-1) +0.0453 P4 (t) + 0.037P5 (t-1)
+0.0419 P5(t) +0.0088 P 6 (t-1) +0.0378 P 6(t) + 0.0566 P7 (t-1) +0.0195 P7 (t) + P8
(t-1) -0.0343 P8 (t) + 0.1857P 9 (t-1)+ 0.6521 P9(t)+ 0.3818 Q(t)+ 0.381852
MODEL RESULTS BOTH DIST. DATA AND LUMPED DATA
Model No. of input parameters R MSE E
Casue Effect Models

Model 1
1 0.911 141.422 0.820
(Lumped)
Model 1 (Dist) 9 0.917 137.57 0.825
Model 2
2 0.906 149.464 0.810
(Lumped)
Model 2 (Dist) 18 0.912 145.135 0.816
Combined Models
Model 3
2 0.926 111.387 0.858
(Lumped)
Model 3 (Dist) 10 0.936 101.96 0.88
Model 4
3 0.961 60.01 0.923
(Lumped)
Model 4 (Dist) 19 0.967 65.27 0.923
Conclusions from Data analysis
Conclusion from Annual rainfall series
Original data of annual rainfall series do not follow a normal distribution
hence log transformation was carried out and found that it follows a
normal distribution
Annual rainfall series data is found to be non stationary
From trend analysis it was found that annual rainfall data follow a linear
upward trend
The box plot analysis showed positive and negative outliers in rainfall
series
Conclusion from Daily average rainfall series
Daily average rainfall series data required transformation to follow normal

distribution hence log transformation is carried out and found to follow normal
distribution
A trend analysis showed a linear falling trend in daily average rainfall data
Conclusion from Daily average rainfall series (Ctd.)
The daily average data found to be non stationary
Box plot analysis showed no positive and negative outliers
Trend analysis of daily rainfall data shows almost horizontal

trend.
Annual Inflow series
Annual inflow data required transformation to follow the

normal distribution.
Trend analysis shows almost horizontal trend
The data is found to be non stationary
Box plot analysis showed positive outliers in the data set

Conclusion from Daily average Inflow
Daily average inflow data required transformation to follow the normal

distribution
Trend analysis showed falling trend, similar to that of daily rainfall

series
Daily average Inflow data found to be non stationary
Box plot showed no positive and negative outliers

Conclusions from Multiple linear Regression Models
MLR models resulted in better scenario in predicting average

and normal peak flow. Shows significant improvement from time
series to cause effect and cause effect to combined models.
MLR model with combined input of rainfall and runoff predicted

better than considering rainfall runoff separately.
It is found that MLR is performing better due to longer length of

observed data.
2. SCS-CN Technique
Developed by Soil Conservation Service of USA for
small agricultural watersheds, latter extended to urban
watershed.
Data needed is the rainfall and type of soil and land

use
Based on the concept of reservoir operation

Let the water storing capacity of the soil (S)
S-maximum retention of water in the soil capacity of the reservoir
Runoff will start only when this reservoir is full
But actual soil moisture is Sa = P-Ia-R
Similarly let
R (actual runoff)
P-Ia = Potential runoff
R =0 if P<Ia
The hypothesis of SCS-CN technique is that the ratio of actual and potential
moisture retained is equal to the ratio of actual and potential runoff
P Ia R R

S P Ia
R
P I a 2
By rearranging this the SCS-CN equation is
P Ia S
SCS-CN found that Ia = 0.2 S P 0.2S 2

R
P 0.8S
A number of curves has been
plotted for the measured P and
R
SCS fund a number of

dimensionless curves with
numbers called Curve
Numbers 0CN100
For impervious and water

bodies CN=100
It varies with respect to
antecedent soil moisture, soil
type, and land use.
This CN is related to S
1000
S 10
CN
In fps system
P and R in inches
25400
S 254 For various land uses the CN is taken as
CN weighted curve Number
Where P and R in mm
Runoff curve numbers for selected agricultural, suburban and urban land uses (antecedent moisture condition II, Ia = 0.2S)
Hydrologic Soil Group
Land Use Description
A B C D
without conservation treatment 72 81 82 91
Cultivated Land:
with conservation treatment 62 71 78 81
Poor condition 68 79 86 89
Pasture or range land:
Good condition 39 61 74 80
Meadow: Good condition
30 58 71 78
thin stand, poor cover, no mulch 45 66 77 83
Wood or Forest land:
Good condition 25 55 70 77
Good condition: grass cover on 75% or more of the
Open spaces, lawns, parks, golf area 39 61 74 80
course, cemeteries, etc.
fair condition: grass cover on 50% to 75% of the area
49 69 79 84
Commercial and business areas (85% impervious)
89 92 94 95
Industrial districts (72% impervious)
81 88 91 93
Average lot size Average % impervious
1/8 acre or less 65 77 85 90 92
1/4 acre 38 61 75 83 87
Residential
1/3 acre 30 57 72 81 86
1/2 acre 25 54 70 80 85
1 acre 20 51 68 79 84
Paved parking lots, roofs, driveways, etc. 98 98 98 98
Paved with curbs and storm sewers 98 98 98 98
Street and roads gravel 76 85 89 91
dirt 72 82 87 89
Soil Group Description of the Hydrologic Soil group by USSCS
A Lowest runoff potential. Includes deep sand with very little clay and silt.
B Moderately low runoff potential. Mostly sandy soil less deeper than A
C Moderately high runoff potential. Comprises shallow soil of clay, colloids.
D Highest runoff potential. Includes mostly clay of high swelling percent, nearly
impermeable soils.
Antecedent moisture 5-day antecedent rainfall (cm)

condition class Non-monsoon period Monsoon period
I. Optimum soil condition Less than 1.25 Less than 3.5
from plastic limit to wilting
point
II Average value for 1.25 to 2.75 3.5 to 5.25
annual floods
III. Heavy rainfall or low Over 2.75 Over 5.25
rainfall and low
temperature during five
days preceding the storm
? Determine the runoff from a watershed of 60 ha.
The following data is available
Rainfall = 100 mm
Row crop good condition 40 ha (soil type C)
Wood land good condition 20 ha (soil type B)
From the CN table find the CN corresponding to these two soil type and
land use
For row crop 40 ha = 82
For wood land 20 ha = 55
The weighted CN = CN (82 * 40) (55 * 20) = 73
60
25400
S= S 254 = 93.9 mm
73
P 0.2 S 2
R = 37.7 mm
P 0.8S
Fixing the Capacity of a reservoir
Required Storage = Dt- St (over a year)
Sequent Peak Algorithm
If N year flow data are available
It is assumed the cyclic pattern repeats
700
600
500
400
300
200
100
0
0 100 200 T i me i n mont hs 300 400 500
T i me s e r i e s pl ot of T ot a l i nf l ow
Sequent Peak Algorithm
Estimate the Net-flow volume
= Inflow-outflow (demand)
Plot the cumulative net-flow Vs time
Find the sequent peak (high) and trough (low)
The maximum difference gives the capacity of the reservoir.
Drought
Meteorological drought
If rainfall is decreased more than 25% of normal rainfall
Severe drought if rainfall is 75% of normal rainfall
Severe drought if rainfall is 40-75% of normal rainfall
Hydrological drought
Depletion of surface and ground water
Drying of lakes reservoirs aquifers
Agricultural drought
When soil moisture and rainfall are inadequate during growing period of a crop
Economic drought
Self Study
Solve all the problems given in this section
Others techniques of stream flow measurement

Electromagnetic method
Ultrasonic method
Indirect methods
Flow measuring structures (weirs and notches?)
Slope area methods (based on resistance equation for
uniform flow and Mannings formula)
1. Application of ANN and GP in rating
curve parameter estimation
2. Finding new sophisticated instruments
for stream-flow measurement
3. Etc..
Research area in this topic
Establishment of rainfall-runoff relationship
Black box models ANN
Conceptual models
Physical models
Inclusion of GIS and RS
Drought prediction and mitigation
Limb
Rising
Rainfall
Runoff
Time Lag
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
(V/t) 1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
Crust
34
35
36
37
Time
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
Peak Discharge
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
Limb
70
71
Hydrographs
Base flow line
72
73
Recession
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Introduction
Rainfall after initial losses and infiltration losses are met, reaches the
stream as runoff.
There is time lag between the occurrence of rainfall and the time,
when it passes the gauging station.
Hydrograph due to isolated storm is typically single peaked with

skewed distribution of discharge.
Commonly known as storm hydrographs, flood hydrographs or simply

hydrograph.
Hydrograph is the response of a given catchment to a rainfall input.
It consists of all three phases of runoff viz.

Surface runoff
Interflow
Base flow
Elements of flood hydrograph
B & D Point of inflection
X
C
X X
B D
A E
X
Time Characteristics of a
hydrograph
1. Time to peak
From beginning of rising limb to peak discharge
Function of basin characteristics
Drainage density, slope channel size, roughness and soil infiltration characteristics
2. Time of concentration
Time required for the farthermost rain to reach the outlet
3. Lag time or Basin lag time
Between centre of mass of rainfall and runoff hydrograph mass
Since it is very difficult to find the center then it is the time between centre of mass of
effective rainfall to peak discharge
4. Duration of rainfall
5. Base time of hydrographs
Other time periods (where attention is needed while deriving the flood hydrograph)
1. Time of measurement of discharge
2. Rainfall intensity
3. Rainfall duration
4. Discharge rate
Factors affecting flood
hydrographs
S. Physiographic Factors S.No Climatic factors
No
1. Basin characteristics 1. Storm characteristics: precipitation,
(a) Shape Intensity, duration, magnitude and
(b) Size movement of storm.
( c) slope
(d) Nature of the valley
(e) Elevation
(f) Drainage density
2. Infiltration characteristic 2. Initial loss
(a) Land use and cover
(b) Soil type and geological condition
(c) Lakes, swamps and other storage
3. Channel characteristics: cross 3. Evapotranspiration
section, roughness and storage
capacity.
Factors affecting flood
hydrographs
Shape of the basin
It influences the time taken for water from the remote parts of the
catchment to arrive at the outlet.
Size
Small basins and large basins behave differently due to relative
importance of overland flow and channel flow.
Slope
It controls the velocity of the flow in the channel and affects the steepness of recession limb.
Drainage density
It is the ratio of the total channel length to total channel area. High drainage density reflected
in a pronounced peak.
Land use
Vegetation and forests increase the infiltration and storage capacity of soils and retards the
overland flow.
Climatic factors
Intensity, duration and direction of storm movement are three important climatic factors,
which affects the shape flood hydrographs.
Controlled mostly Controlled mostly by

by climatic factors basin factors
Base flow separation
To draw surface runoff hydrograph, it is
required to separate base flow
Methods
Method I
Straight line method
N=0.83A0.2
Line AB
Method II Line ACB

Method III
Line AFE
Effective rainfall or Rainfall Excess
Hyetograph (effective
runoff hydrograph)
showing the direct runoff,
(initial losses and
infiltration losses are
separated).
Called as effective
rainfall hyetograph or
hyetograph of rainfall
excess
It is the rainfall which

contributed for direct
runoff
? A storm over a catchment of area 5 km2 had a 14
hrs duration. The mass curve of rainfall is given. If
index is 0.4 cm/h, determine the effective rainfall
hyetograph and the volume of direct runoff from
the catchment.
Time from depth of
start ofAccumulated rainfall Effective Rainfall
storm rainfall in cm rainfall intensity
(hr) (cm) f index (cm) cm/hr
0 0 0 - - -
2 0.6 0.6 0.8 0 0
4 2.8 2.2 0.8 1.4 0.7
6 5.2 2.4 0.8 1.6 0.8
8 6.7 1.5 0.8 0.7 0.35
10 7.5 0.8 0.8 0 0
12 9.2 1.7 0.8 0.9 0.45
14 9.6 0.4 - 0 0
Total effective rainfall=
area of ER hyetograph
=(0.7+0.8+0.35+0.45)*2 1.00
=4.6 cm 0.90
Volume of direct runoff = 0.80
rainfall excess X area of 0.70

the basin
Rainfall Intensity (cm/hr)

0.60
=0.046*5*(1000)2
0.50
=23000 m3
0.40
0.30
0.20
0.10
0.00
-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16
Time from start of storm (hr)
? A rainfall of 3.8 cm and 2.8 cm occurred on two
consecutive 4-hr duration over an area of 27 km2.
Estimate the rainfall excess and -index from the
measured runoff.
Time from
start
STEPS
of Observed Direct 1. Draw the runoff hydrograph
rainfal runoff Base flow runoff
l (h) (m3/s) (m3/s) (m3/s) 2. Separate the base flow (any
-6 6 5 - one technique) N=0.83A0.2
0 5 5 0 3. Or assume a base flow of 5
6 13 5 8 m3/s
12 26 5 21 4. Calculate the DRH
18 21 5 16
5. Estimate the runoff depth
24 16 5 11
30 12 5 7
= runoff volume/area
36 9 5 4
5. Use index formula to
42 7 5 2
determine the loss
48 5 5 0 6. Then estimate the rainfall
54 5 5 0 excess
60 4.5 5 -
66 4.5 5 -
Direct runoff volume
= DRH ordinates x time
=(8+21+16+11+7+4+2)*6*3600
30
=1.49x106 m3
(remember Trapezoidal formula)
Runoff depth 25
= Volume of runoff /area
= (1.49x106)/(27x106)
5.52 cm 20
Runoff (cu.m/s)
Total rainfall = 3.8+2.8=6.6 cm 15
-index = (P-R)/te
Direct Runoff
(6.6-5.52)/8 = 0.135 cm/h 10
Hence rainfall excess 5

3.8-(0.135x4)=3.26 cm
for first 4 hr Base flow
2.8-(0.135x4)=2.26 cm 0
for second 4 hr -6 0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66
Time of measurement (hr)
Unit hydrograph
The measurement of runoff works out to be a costly and more time
consuming process
Hence various methods has been used like RR models, empirical, rational,
soft computing etc
UNIT HYDROGRAPH METHOD Introduced by Sherman (1932)
The unit hydrograph represents the lumped response of the catchment to

a unit rainfall excess of D-h duration to produce a direct-runoff
hydrograph.
It relates only the direct runoff to the rainfall excess.
Hence the volume of water contained in the unit hydrograph must be equal
to the volume of rainfall excess.
As 1 cm depth of rainfall excess is considered, the area of the unit

hydrograph is equal to a volume given by 1 cm over the catchment for that
duration.
The rainfall is considered to have an average intensity of excess rainfall

(ER) of 1 cm/h for the D hr duration of the storm.
The distribution of the storm is considered to be uniform all over the

catchment.
Basic assumptions of unit
hydrograph
Time invariance
This first basic assumption is that the direct-runoff response
to a given effective rainfall in a catchment is time-invariant.
This implies that the DRH for a given ER in a catchment is

always the same irrespective of when it occurs.
Linear Response
The direct-runoff response to the rainfall excess is assumed
to be linear.
This is the most important assumption of the unit-hydrograph

theory.
The Rainfall runoff obeys the principles of superposition

Application of unit hydrograph
It is useful in calculating DRH (flood

as well as storm hydrograph) of a
given storm occurred for D hr.
If a D hr duration UH is available, it is possible

to derive multiples of D hr duration unit
hydrograph
? Given below are the ordinates of 6-hr unit hydrograph for a
catchment. Calculate and draw the DRH to a rainfall excess of 5
cm occurred in 6-hr
960
Time UH ordinates Ordinates of 5cm 920
(h) (m3/s) DRH (m3/s) 880
840
0 0 0 800 UH of 6-hr Duration
760 Flood hydrograph of 5 cm in 6 hr
3 25 125 720
680
6 50 250 640
600
Runoff (cu.m/s)
9 85 425 560
520
12 125 625 480
440
15 160 800 400
360
925 320
18 185
280
800 240
24 160 200
160
30 110 550
120
80
36 60 300
40
0
42 36 180
0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72
48 25 125 Time of measurement (hr)
54 16 80 Observe the time of

60 8 40
measurement of runoff
69 0 0
1600
1520
? Two storms 1440
each of 6 hr 1360 UH of 6-hr duration
Flood hydrograph of first rainfall 5 cm
duration 1280 Flood hydrograph of second rainfall 4 cm
having rainfall 1200
Total Flood hydrograph
excess of 5 1120
cm and 4 cm 1040
Runoff (cu.m/s)
respectively 960
has occurred 880 UH of 2nd 6-hr duration
concurrently 800
in the same 720

640
basin.
560
Calculate the
480
resulting
400
DRH?
320
240
160
80
0
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78
Ordinates of 5 Ordinates of 4
UH ordinates cm DRH cm DRH Total DRH
Time (h) (m3/s) (m3/s) (m3/s) (m3/s)
0 0 0 0 0
6 50 250 0 250
12 125 625 200 825
18 185 925 500 1425
24 160 800 740 1540
30 110 550 640 1190
36 60 300 440 740
42 36 180 240 420
48 25 125 144 269
54 16 80 100 180
60 8 40 64 104
66 2.7 13.5 32 45.5
72 0 0 10.8 10.8
78 0 0
Derivation of unit hydrographs
Flood hydrographs used in the analysis should be selected
to meet the following desirable features with respect to the
storms responsible for them:
The storms should be an isolated storm.
The rainfall should be fairly uniform during the duration

and should cover the entire catchment area.
The duration of the rainfall should be 1/5 to 1/3 of the basin

lag. (how will you estimate this?????)
The rainfall excess of the selected storm should be high. A

range ER values of 1.0 to 4.0 cm is sometimes preferred.
Steps on derivation of unit hydrographs
1. Collect the rainfall intensity, duration, and runoff values
over a period of time.
2. Plot the storm hydrograph.
3. Separate the base flow if any (use any one of the four
methods) and find the direct runoff
4. Find the volume of direct runoff from the DRH
5. Divide the volume of Direct runoff by area of the

catchment to find the rainfall excess.
6. Divide each and every DRH ordinates using the rainfall

excess
7. The resulting ordinates are the ordinates of the UNIT

HYDROGRAPH
Possible rainfall events to
derive Unit Hydrographs
1. Single storm of D hr duration
2. Complex storm or multiple storm
a. Multiple storm of each D hr duration (only
magnitude varies)
b. Multiple storm of varying magnitude and
varying duration
Given below are observed flows from a storm of 6hr duration on a
stream with a catchment area of 500 km2. Derive the ordinates of
6-hr unit hydrograph
Observed DRH = Draw the flood hydrograph

Observed- UH =
Time flow base flow DRH/4.3 Estimate the base flow (in
(h) (m3/s) (m3/s) 2 (m3/s) this case it is zero)
0 0 0 0.0
Calculate the DRH
6 100 100 23.1
= FH-base flow
12 250 250 57.9
18 200 200 46.3 Estimate the volume of
runoff = DRH ordinates*time
24 150 150 34.7
interval of measurement
30 100 100 23.1 =1000*6*3600 = 21.6x106 m3
36 70 70 16.2 Estimate rainfall excess =
42 50 50 11.6 volume of runoff /area of
catchment
48 35 35 8.1
= 21.6x106 / 500x106
54 25 25 5.8
= 0.0432 m
60 15 15 3.5
= 4.32 cm
66 5 5 1.2 Ordinates of UH
72 0 0 0.0 = DRH / 4.32
280
240 Flood hydrograph of 6 hr duration

UH of 6-hr duration
200
Runoff (cu.m/s)
160
X
120 280
80 240 Flood hydrograph of 6 hr duration

UH of 6-hr duration
40 200
Runoff (cu.m/s)
0
0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66
160
72

120
80
? Redraw hydrographs of the
previous problems
40
0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72
Derivation of Unit hydrograph from a
complex storm of constant duration
0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78
This is inverse of the 1600

1520
0
problem already 1440
solved. 1360
1280
UH of 6-hr duration
Flood hydrograph of 5 cm
5
In this case rainfall of 1200

1120
flood hydrograph of 4 cm lagged by 6 hr
Total flood hydrograph
varying magnitude 1040

10
Runoff (cu.m/s)
has occurred for 960
Rainfall in cm
880
constant duration of D 800 15
720
hr 640
560
Assume that a Unit 480
20
Hydrograph for that D 400

320
hr duration is 240
25
available, let the 160

80
ordinates be u1, u2, u3, 0 30
u4, u5, . 0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48
54 60 66 72 78
(method of least squares)
Q1 = R1u1 0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78
1600 0
1520
Q2 = R1u2 + R2 u1
1440
1360 UH of 6-hr duration
5
Q3 = R1u 3+ R2 u2 + R3u1 1280 Flood hydrograph of 5 cm
1200 flood hydrograph of 4 cm lagged by 6 hr
1120 Total flood hydrograph

Q4 = R1u4 + R2 u3 + R3 u2 + R4 u1 1040
10
Runoff (cu.m/s)
960
Rainfall in cm
M
Qt Ri ut i 1 880
800 15
i 1 720
640
560
t- at any measured time. 20
480
Where M = rainfall events 400 R1u2
Sum only positive u values 320
25
This equation holds good if 240
discharge measured time 160
R1u1 R2u1
interval is equal to unit 80
hydrograph time duration. 0 30
This can be converted into a matrix 0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78

form and then solve, to arrive the Time of measurement (hr)
UH ordinates
UN ordinates
Time (h) Total DRH (m3/s) R1 = 5 cm R2 = 4 cm (m3/s)
0 0 0 0
6 Q1 250 Q1 = R1u1 = 250 u1 = 50 50
12 Q2 825 Q2 = R1u2 + R2 u1=825 u2 = 125 125
18 Q3 1425 Q3 = R1u 3+ R2 u2 = 1425 u3 = 185 185
24 Q4 1540 Q4 = R1u4 + R2 u3 = 1540 u4 = 160 160
30 Q5 1190 Q5 = R1u5 + R2 u4 = 1190 u5 = 110 110
36 Q6 740 Q6 = R1u6 + R2 u5 = 740 u6 = 60 60
42 Q7 420 Q7 = R1u7 + R2 u6 = 420 u7 = 36 36
48 Q8 269 Q8 = R1u8 + R2 u7 = 269 u8 = 25 25
54 Q9 180 Q9 = R1u9 + R2 u8 = 180 u9 = 16 16
60 Q10 104 Q10 = R1u10 + R2u9 = 104 u10 = 8 8
66 Q11 45.5 Q11 = R1u11 + R2 u10 = 45.5 u11= 2.7 2.7
72 Q12 10.8 Q12 = R1u12 + R2 u11 = 10.8 u12 = 0 0
78 0 0
? The following table gives the ordinates of a direct
runoff hydrograph resulting from two successive 3-hr
duration of rainfall excess values of 2 and 4 cm
respectively. Derive 3-hr unit hydrograph for the
catchment
Time 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30
Hr
DRH 0 120 480 660 460 260 160 100 50 20 0
m3/s
Time 0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30
Hr
DRH 0 120 480 660 460 260 160 100 50 20 0
m3/s
UN 0 60 120 90 50 30 20 10 5 0
3hr
complex storm of variable duration
(trial and error procedure)
In real life if rainfall of constant duration

is not available
Try to adjust the rainfall within a period of
10%D
Else derive various mD hr duration Unit
hydrograph and then try to super impose
Thus to solve this problem we need to convert the
available D hr unit hydrograph into mD hr unit
hydrograph.
m may be an integer or a fraction
Derivation of Unit hydrograph of
different durations from available D hr
unit hydrograph.
Method of superposition
Is suitable when m is an integer
Method of S- curve
Is suitable when m is a fraction
unit hydrograph.
1. Method of superposition
Is suitable when m is an integer
To solve this method a D hr Unit hydrograph is available
Super impose m unit hydrographs with each hydrograph
lagged by D hr from the previous unit hydrograph
The sum of ordinates of lagged hydrograph gives rise to
DRH of m cm in mD hr duration
Thus to derive the Unit hydrograph of mD hr divide the DRH
ordinates by m times. The resulting UH is for mD hr UH
Example: derive 30hr UH from 6 hr unit hydrograph
Plot the 6 hr UH
Plot 4 more such UH each one lagged by 6 hrs
Add the ordinates- the resulting hydrograph is DRH for 5 cm in
30 hrs
Divide the ordinates of DRH by 5 to arrive the UN of 30 hr
duration.
0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84 90 96
700 0
1
650
2
600 3
550 4
5
500 6
450 7
Runoff (cu.m/s)
Rainfall in cm
400
9
350 10
11
300
12
250 13
200 14
15
150 16
100 17
18
50
19
0 20
0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84 90 96
UH DRH of 5 UH of 30
ordina cm hr
tes Lag 1 by 6 Lag 2 by Lag 3 by Lag 4 by rainfall durati
Time (h) (m3/s) hr 12 hr 18 hr 24 hr in 30 hr on
0 0 0 0
6 50 0 50 10
12 125 50 0 175 35
18 185 125 50 0 360 72
24 160 185 125 50 0 520 104
30 110 160 185 125 50 630 126
36 60 110 160 185 125 640 128
42 36 60 110 160 185 551 110.2
48 25 36 60 110 160 391 78.2
54 16 25 36 60 110 247 49.4
60 8 16 25 36 60 145 29
66 2.7 8 16 25 36 87.7 17.54
72 0 2.7 8 16 25 51.7 10.34
78 0 2.7 8 16 26.7 5.34
84 0 2.7 8 10.7 2.14
90 0 2.7 2.7 0.54
96 0 0 0
? What happens when mD hr unit
hydrograph is derived from D hr unit
hydrograph in case of m is an integer
0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84 90 96
1 cm in D hr duration 700 0
1
1 cm in mD hr 650
2
duration 600 3
The magnitude of the 550 4

5
peak discharge gets 500 6
reduced 450 7
Runoff (cu.m/s)
The base time 8
Rainfall in cm
400
9
increases 350 10
Time to peak 300
11
increases 250
12
13
Over all the 200 14
hydrograph gets 15
150
flattened 16
100 17
However the volume 18
of runoff remains the 50
19
same. 0 20
0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72 78 84 90 96
unit hydrograph (contd)
2. S-Curve technique
Is suitable when m is a fraction (it works for integer also)
To solve this method a D hr Unit hydrograph is available
Develop a hydrograph produced by a continuous
effective rainfall of D hr for a infinite period.
Then get the summation hydrograph (S curve ordinates)
obtained by summation of the infinite series of D hr UH
spaced D hr apart.
The maximum summation value is
= (Area X 1 cm) / D hr
Runoff (cu/m/s)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
0 0
6 6
12 12
18 18
24 24
30 30
36 36
42 42
48 48
54 54
60 60
66 66
72 72
78 78
84 84
90 90
Time (hr)
96 96
102 102
108 108
114 114
SA
120 120
126 126
132 132
138 138
144 144
150 150
156 156
162 162
168 168
174 174
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
20
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
different durations from available D
hr unit hydrograph (contd)
This S curve represents the maximum rate at which an Effective
rainfall intensity of 1 cm/hr in D hr duration can drain out from a
catchment of area A km2. (SA)
Suppose we lag this S curve by mD hrs (SB)
And take the difference between the two S curves lagged at mD
hr intervals, (SA-SB)
Runoff (cu/m/s)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
0 0
6 6
12 12
18 18
24 24
30 30
SB
36 36
42 42
48 48
54 54
60 60
66 66
72 72
78 78
84 84
90
mD hr duration for a rainfall of m cm/hr
90
Time (hr)
96 96
102 102
108 108
114 114
SA
120 120
126 126
132 132
138 138
144 144
150 150
156 156
162 162
168 168
174 174
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
20
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
different durations from available D
hr unit hydrograph (contd)
It will be the DRH produced by a rainfall excess of duration mD
hrs and magnitude equal to m cm/hr (or also equal to mD )
D
mD
Thus the ordinate difference (SA-SB) divided by D (or m)
results in a UH of mD hr duration.
? From the 6 hr UH derive 3 hr and

12 hr unit hydrographs
Runoff (cu/m/s)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
0 0
6 6
12 12
18 18
24 24
30 30
SB
36 36
42 42
48 48
54 54
60 60
66 66
72 72
78 78
84 84
90 90
Time (hr)
96 96
102 102
108 108
114 114
SA
120 120
126 126
132 132
138 138
144 144
150 150
156 156
162 162
168 168
S curves lagged by 3 hr duration
174 174
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
20
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
Time hr SA-SB 3 hr UH
0 0.0 0.0 UH of 3 hr duration
3 20.0 40.0
6 32.5 65.0
9 52.5 105.0
12 67.5 135.0
After getting the
15 100 200 difference of SA-SB
18 95.0 190.0 The ordinates of 3 hr UH =
21 77.5 155.0 (SA-SB)/(mD/D)
24 65.0 130.0
27 55.0 110.0
30 50.0 100.0
In this case it is
33 32.5 65.0
(SA-SB)/0.5
36 30.0 60.0
39 20.0 40.0
42 16.3 32.5
45 15.0 30.0
48 12.5 25.0
51 10.0 20.0
54 15.0
57 10.0
60 7.0
63 4.0
66 2.0
69 0.0 0.0
Runoff (cu/m/s)
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
0
1000
0 0
6 6
12 12
18 18
24 24
30 30
36 36
42 42
48 48
54 54
60 60
66 66
72 72
78 78
84 84
90 90
Time (hr)
96 96
102 102
108 108
114 114
120 120
126 126
132 132
138 138
144 144
150 150
156 156
162 162
168 168
174 174
S curves lagged by 12 hr duration
9
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
0
20
19
18
17
16
15
14
13
12
11
10
UH of 12 hr duration
Time After
h SA-SB (from S 12 hr UH
r SA SB SA-SB 12 hr UH curve graph) ordinates getting the
0 0 0 0 0 0 difference
6 50 50 25 of SA-SB
12 175 0 175 87.5 178 89 The
18 360 50 310 155 ordinates
335 167.5
24 520 175 345 172.5 of 3 hr UH =
30 630 360 270 135 (SA-
36 690 520 170 85 171 85.5
SB)/(mD/D)
42 726 630 96 48
48 751 690 61 30.5 64 32
In this case
54 767 726 41 20.5
it is
60 775 751 24 12 25 12.5
(SA-SB)/2
66 777.7 767 10.7 5.35
72 777.7 775 2.7 1.35 2 1
78 777.7 777.7 0 0
84 777.7 777.7 0 0 0 0
? What happens when mD hr unit hydrograph is derived from D hr
unit hydrograph in case of m is an integer and or m is a fraction
200
180 ordinates of 3 hr UH
ordinates of 6 hr UH
160 ordinates of 12 hr UH
140
Runoff cu.m/s
120
100
80
? Check the
60
volume of
runoff from
40 each UH???
Are they
20 equal???
0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24 27 30 33 36 39 42 45 48 51 54 57 60 63 66 69 72 75 78 81 84
Time hr
Use of hydrographs
The development of flood hydrographs for
extreme rainfall magnitudes for use in the
design of hydraulic structures
Extension of flood-flow records based on

rainfall records and
Development of flood forecasting and warning

systems based on rainfall.
Limitations of hydrographs
It assumes uniform distribution of rainfall over the catchment.
Intensity of rainfall is assumed constant for the duration of the

rainfall excess.
Precipitation must be from rainfall only. Snow-melt runoff

cannot be satisfactorily represented by unit hydrograph.
The catchment should not have unusually large storages in

terms of tanks, ponds, large flood-bank storages, etc. which
affect the line relationship between storage and discharge.
For derivation of a Unit hydrograph the upper limit of basin area

is 5000 km2 and lower limit is 200 ha.
Rainfall duration of a Unit
Hydrograph
A rough guide for the choice of
duration D is that it should not exceed
the least of
(i) Time to peak or time of rising limb
(ii) basin lag best time is of basin
lag
(iii) time of concentration
Distribution Graph
Introduced by Bernad (1935)
Is the variation of the unit hydrograph ordinates with
respect to the total runoff
D hr UH with ordinates showing the percentage

of the surface runoff.
In this graph the base time interval must be equal

to the duration of rainfall.
The total are of the distribution graph works out

to be 100%
Derive a distribution Graph from the 6-
hr UH ordinates in a basin
UH ordinates Distribution
25 200
Time (h) (m3/s) Ratio %
0 0 0.00
6 50 6.43 20 160
12 125 16.07
Unit volume per interval (%)

18 185 23.79
15 120
24 160 20.57
30 110 14.14
10 80
36 60 7.72
42 36 4.63
48 25 3.21 5 40
54 16 2.06
60 8 1.03
0 0
66 2.7 0.35 0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66 72
1 2 3 4 5 Time
6 in7 hr 8 9 10 11 12
72 0 0.00
Total 777.7 100.00
What is the use of these
distribution graph
These are more useful in comparing the
runoff characteristics of different
catchments, which are hydrologically
similar.
Also useful in establishing the UH for the

un-gauged basins
A 4 hr distribution graph of a basin is available. Another
similar catchment with an area of 50 km2 has rainfalls of
3.5, 2.2 and 1.8 cm in consecutive 4 hr periods.
Assuming an average -index of 0.25 cm/hr, determine the
resulting direct runoff hydrograph
Unit periods (4 hr) 1 2 3 4 5 6
Distribution % 5 20 40 20 10 5
Time Time of
Runoff
int mea
er sure Infiltration Distributi Total
val men Rainfall loss Effective on runoff Runoff in
hr t hr cm cm rainfall % 2.5 cm 1.2 cm 0.8 cm in cm m3/s
0-4 2 3.5 1 2.5 5 0.125 0.125 4.34

4-8 6 2.2 1 1.2 20 0.5 0.06 0.56 19.44
8-12 10 1.8 1 0.8 40 1 0.24 0.04 1.28 44.44
12-16 14 20 0.5 0.48 0.16 1.14 39.58
16-20 18 10 0.25 0.24 0.32 0.81 28.13
20-24 22 5 0.125 0.12 0.16 0.405 14.06
24-28 26 0 0.06 0.08 0.14 4.86
28-32 30 0 0.04 0.04 1.39
32-36 34 0 0 0.00
Synthetic Unit Hydrograph
Is a technique to derive UH for a poorly gauged or un gauged basin
from a known (gauged) hydrologicaly similar basins
Synders (1938) method is first method and widely used method
How ever to derive this SUH for the un-gauged basin atleast the basin
characteristics are available.
Synder first studied the Appalachian Highlands in USA and developed

the SUH
The same was modified to suit other basin in other countries and was
named as Synders Unit Hydrograph
In this method, estimate the parameters of the UH from the gauged

Basin and apply that parameters to the un-gauged basin
Important parameters and
constants in SUH
1. Time to peak
2. Standard duration of the rainfall
3. Peak discharge estimation
4. Base time of the unit hydrograph
5. Width of UH at 50% and 75% of the peak

discharge
constants in SUH
1. Lag time
Between centre of mass of rainfall and runoff hydrograph mass
Since it is very difficult to find the center then it is the time between
centre of mass of effective rainfall to peak discharge
Physically it is the average time of travel of water from all parts of
the basin to the outlet.
It is function of basin characteristics such as basin size, length,
stream density and vegetation.
t p Ct ( LLca ) 0.3 t p Ct (
LLca
)n
S
tp=lag time
L=basin length measured along the water course from the basin divide to the outlet point
Lca = distance along the main water course from gauging station to a point of the watershed
centroid in km
Ct = a regional constant representing watershed slope and storage
Ct-varies between 0.3 to 6 n is 0.38, Ct=1.715 (mountains),

1.03 (foot hills) and 0.5 (valley)
constants in SUH (contd)
2. Standard duration of effective rainfall
tp
tr
5.5
If this works out to be non standard duration then
rework out the basin lag time
tR tr
t 'p tp
4
21 t
t 'p tp R
22 4
Where tR=is the standard rainfall duration
3. Peak discharge estimation
2.78 * C p * A
Qp
t 'p
Qp-peak discharge in m3/s
A area of the basin in km2
Cp is the regional constant (varies from 0.31 to 0.91)
4. Base time of the unit hydrograph
tb 72 t 'p or
t
tb 5 t 'p R
2
One has to select the suitable base time from this

estimates
Generally second one is selected, this shows that
base time is five times the time to peak.
5. Width of UH at 50% and 75% of Qp
5.87
W50
q1.08
W
W75 50
1.75
W50 is the width (time period at 50% of the peak

discharge)
W75 is the width (time period at 75% of the peak
discharge)
q=Qp/A =discharge per unit area m3/s/m2
? Two catchments A and B are
considered meteorologically similar.
Item Catchment A Catchment B

A 2718 km2 1400 km2
L 148 km 106 km
Lca 76 km 52 km
For a 6-hr UH in catchment A, the peak discharge is at 37 h from start of the rainfall
excess and its value is 200 m3/s . Determine the elements of 6-hr SUH for
catchment B
Solve this in class room

Self Study
? Dimensionless hydrograph
SCS Dimensionless Unit Hydrograph
SCS triangular hydrograph
? Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph
? Time Area (TA) and Time-Area-Concentration (TCA)

diagram
? Solve all the questions and problems given in the

class
1. Estimation of accurate base flow
2. Separation of base-flow and inter-flow
3. Application of Artificial Intelligence in deriving UH from storm

hydrographs
4. Establishment of UH for un-gauged basins
5. Methods of integrating UH of large basins.
6. Derivation of IUH using GIS and RS

Floods
or
Peak flows
Introduction
A flood is an unusually high stage in a
river (the level at which the river
overflows its banks and inundates the
adjoining area).
Flood causes loss and/or damages in

terms of loss of life, property and
economic losses.
It also spoils image of a countries

infrastructure facility.
Definition of floods
Flood disaster
Source: Central Water Commission, Ministry of

Water Resources, Government of India.
Floods in Mumbai and USA
x-Quantity of normal flow at one space may be a flood at
another space depending upon the infrastructure
New York and its suburbs:
In a developed country
Infrastructure ????
Population: 18,976,457 (189 lakh)
Area= 1,41,205 km2 (54,520 sq. miles)
Elevation = average of 0 to 305 m above msl
Population density = 155/km2 (409/sq.mile)
Mumbai and its suburbs:

In a developing country
Infrastructure is fast growing
Population: approximatly15 million (150 lakh)
Area= 437.71 km2 (169 sq. miles)
Elevation = average of 8 m above msl
Population density = 34,300/km2 (88,750/sq.mile)
Public Transport New York
Subway system
Mumbai: completely disrupted,
Trains on the lifeline of most lines shut
the metropolis, down. Commuters
stopped for a while tries to crowd into
and resumed running, buses
Bus services largely
unaffected.
Power
Mumbai: New York
Power firms cutoff supply The storm drenched the
after flooding to prevent region, cutting off
risk of electrocution and electricity to thousands of
resumed after receding homes.
of flooding
Flooding areas
Mumbai: New York
After 6 hrs continuous After 6 hrs of continuous rain
rain (more than 250 (63.5 mm)
mm), Lower Parel,
The deluge overwhelmed
Worli, dadar, and
storm sewer, flooded
Bhandup were under
major thorough fares.
water (all are low lying
areas)
Destruction
Mumbai: New York
The overflowing Mithi
Roofs turned off,
river submerged 600
shunties, 1500 people over 30 families
were evacuated forced to leave
home, cars
turned turtle
Death
Mumbai: New York
A young man One women killed
was in her car in a
electrocuted flooded
in the eastern underpass
suburbs, a
wall collapsed
and killed
another.
Introduction (contd)
Millions of rupees are spent in flood

forecast, flood control and flood
mitigation.
Urban area
Urban population
Rural areas
Agricultural lands
Insurance companies
Never pay money if your infrastructure is in a
flood plain/zone
Flood Damage
Flood damaged paddy field
Average annual loss due to Floods in
India (only official records)
Sl.No. Items Loss
1. Area affected 7.351 million hectare
2. Population affected 40.967 million
3. Human lives lost 1793 number
4. Cattle lost 85599 number
5. Houses damaged 1452904 number
6. Houses damaged 370.607crore
7. Crop area damaged 3.725 million hectare
8. Crop damaged 1095.132 crore
9. Public Utilities damaged 1186.456 crore
10. Total losses 2706.243 crore
Source: Central Water Commission, Ministry of Water Resources, Government of India

Introduction (contd)
Estimation of Flood peak is the most

important parameter considered in the
design of infrastructures and water
resources facilities
Peak flow magnitude and time to peak in

hydrographs
In the design, peak flow frequency

should be taken as 1 in 100 based on
the importance of the infrastructure.
Flood estimation
Flood estimation methods
1. Empirical method
2. Rational method
3. Unit-hydrograph technique
4. Flood-frequency studies
Flood Estimation method - Selection criteria

Desired objective
Available data
Importance of the project
Other factors-technical assumptions
The rational formula is only applicable to small-size (< 50km)
catchments and the unit-hydrograph method is normally restricted
to moderate-size catchments with areas less than 5000 km.
Empirical method
These are regional bases formulae based

on the statistical correlation and important
catchment properties.
These are generally based on flood peak-

area correlation
Qp= f(A)
where Qp is maximum flood discharge.
A is the area of the catchment
Some of the Empirical formula used
in India (even today)?
Dickens formula (1865)
Where
3 Qp = maximum flood discharge (m3/s)
Q p CD A 4 A = catchment area (km2)
CD = Dickens constant with value
between 6 to 30
Area CD
North-Indian plains 6
North-Indian Hilly 11-14
Central India 14-28
Coastal Andhra and Orissa 22-28
Contd
Ryves Formula (1884)
Where
2 Qp = maximum flood discharge (m3/s)
3
QP C R A A = catchment area (km2)
CR = Ryves coefficient
Originally developed for the Tamil Nadu region, but presently used in
Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh also.
CR = 6.8 for areas within 80 km from the coast
CR = 8.5 for areas 80-160 km from the coast
CR = 10.2 for hilly areas

Contd
Inglis formula (1930)

124 A Where
QP Qp = maximum flood discharge (m3/s)
A = catchment area (km2)
A 10.4
Originally developed for the catchments in Western Ghats in
Maharashtra
At present this is used all over in Maharashtra with a modification in

the numerator (the value of 124)
Contd
Fullers formula (1914) for USA basins
QTp C f A 0.8 1 0.8 log T
Where
QTp = maximum 24- h flood with a frequency of T years in m3/s
A = catchment area (km2)
Cf = a constant with values between 0.18 to 1.88
Contd
Envelop curves
These are the curves which shows the relationship

between drainage area and maximum flood discharge
The observed flood (estimated) data is plotted on log-

log paper as flood peak Vs catchment area.
In the region of same climatological characteristics,

envelop curve can be used.
Catchment should not have significant difference in

meteorological and topographical characteristics.
It is useful in getting quick rough estimation.
Kanwarsain and Karpov (1967) presented enveloping

curves for Indian rivers.
Observe the X axis and Y axis scale
Contd
Baird and McIllwraith (1951)

3025 A Where
QP 0.78
Qp = maximum flood discharge (m3/s)
278 A A = catchment area (km2)
Based on the maximum recorded floods throughout the world.

Rational Method
If a rainfall of uniform intensity occurs for very
long duration
The hydrograph may have time of concentration
The discharge becomes constant after time of
concentration
Hence in this case the time of concentration is very
important
Rational Method (contd..)
Basic equation
Qp = C A i for t tc
where
t = time of concentration
C = coefficient of runoff (runoff/rainfall)
A = area of the catchment
i = intensity of rainfall
Time of concentration (tc)

Time taken for a drop of water from the farthest
part of the catchment to reach the outlet.
Empirical equations are available to estimate it.
Contd.
US practice
n
LL ca
tc t p C t
S
where tc is the time of concentration in hours
Kirpich equation (1940)

0.77 0.385
t c 0.01947 L S
where
tc = time of concentration in minutes
L = maximum length of travel of water
S = slope of the catchment
Use the tc to select the rainfall intensity
Rainfall intensity
Rainfall intensity corresponding to a duration tC and the
desired probability of exceedence is found from rainfall
frequency duration relationship for the given area.
(remember the IDF equation)
x
KT
i n
tc a
Runoff coefficient ( C )
It represents the integrated effect of the catchment losses.
It depends upon the nature of the surface, surface slope
and rainfall intensity.
Weighted equivalent average is taken, if the whole area can
be divided into sub areas of different C.
Sample values of C used all over the world
n
Ci Ai
i 1
Ce
A
Example
Q. An urban catchment has an area of 0.85 km2. the
slope of the catchment is 0.006 and the maximum
length of travel of water is 950 m. the maximum
depth of rainfall with a 25 year return period is
below :
Duration (min) 5 10 20 30 40 60
Depth of 17 26 40 50 57 62
rainfall
If a culvert for drainage at the outlet of this area is

to be designed for a return period of 25 year,
estimate the required peak flow rate, by assuming
coefficient as 0.3.
Example (contd)
First estimate the time of concentration
(use Kirpich formula)
t c 0.01947 L0.77 S 0.385
0.01947 (950) 0.77 (0.006) 0.385
= 27.4 min
Estimate maximum depth of rainfall in 27.4 min (by linear
interpolation)
= 47.4 mm
Estimate the rainfall intensity = depth/time of concentration
= 47.4/27.4 = 1.73 mm/min = 103.8 mm/h
The maximum runoff = CiA
= (0.3x103.8x0.85)xuse appropriate unit conversion
= 7.35 m3/s
Unit Hydrograph Method
We have seen much more about UH

techniques
In this method use maximum rainfall

or PMP values to predict the flood
hydrograph and peak flow discharges.
Flood frequency studies
Hydrologic process such as floods are exceedingly complex
natural event.
It is difficult to model analytically.
Estimation of flood peak is very complex problem.
The annual data of maximum flood when arrange in

decreasing order of magnitude and the probability P of each
event being equaled to or exceeded is calculated by the
plotting position formula (remember this method ?????)
m
P where
N 1 m = order number of the event
N = total number of events in the data
Recurrence interval T
T= 1/P
Flood frequency studies (cont.)
Probability of occurrence of an event r times in n
successive years is
Pr , n n C r P r q n r where q = 1-P
General equation of hydrologic frequency analysis:

xt x K Z
Remember this equation??????
where
xT = value of variate X of a random hydrologic series with a return
period T
x = mean of variate
= standard deviation of variate
K = frequency factor which depends upon the return period T
and the assumed probability distribution.
Contd
Commonly used frequency distribution

function for prediction of extreme
flood values:
Gumbles Extreme value distribution

Log-Pearson Type III distribution
Log normal distribution
Gumbles method (1941)
This is most widely used probability distribution
function for extreme values in hydrologic and
meteorology studies.
Gumble defined flood as the largest of the 365
daily flows.
The value of variate X with return period T is

xt x K Z
The above equations are the basic Gumbles equation and are
applicable to an infinite sample size.
Gumbles equation
Value of variate X, with recurrence interval T

xT x K n 1
where n-1 = standard deviation of the sample of
size N

2
x x

N 1
K = frequency factor expressed as

yT y n
K
Sn
in which yn and Sn are reduced mean and
standard deviation and are functions of sample
size n and yT = reduced variate, a function of T
and is given by T
y T ln . ln
T 1
Values of reduced mean and standard deviation
REDUCED MEAN yn IN GUMBEL'S EXTREME VALUES DISTRIBUTION
N= sample size
N 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
10 0.4952 0.4996 0.5035 0.507 0.51 0.5128 0.5157 0.5181 0.5202 0.522
20 0.5236 0.5252 0.5268 0.5283 0.5296 0.5309 0.532 0.5332 0.5343 0.5353
30 0.5362 0.5371 0.538 0.5388 0.5396 0.5402 0.541 0.5418 0.5424 0.543
40 0.5436 0.5442 0.5448 0.5453 0.5458 0.5463 0.5468 0.5473 0.5477 0.5481
50 0.5485 0.5489 0.5493 0.5497 0.5501 0.5504 0.5508 0.5511 0.5515 0.5518
60 0.5521 0.5524 0.5527 0.553 0.5533 0.5535 0.5538 0.554 0.5543 0.5545
70 0.5548 0.555 0.5552 0.5555 0.5557 0.5559 0.5561 0.5563 0.5565 0.5567
80 0.5569 0.557 0.5572 0.5574 0.5576 0.5578 0.558 0.5581 0.5583 0.5585
90 0.5586 0.5587 0.5589 0.5591 0.5592 0.5593 0.5595 0.5596 0.5598 0.5599
100 0.56
REDUCED STANDARD DEVIATION Sn IN GUMBEL'S EXTREME VALUE DISTRIBUTION

N= sample size
N 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
10 0.9496 0.9676 0.9833 0.9971 1.0095 1.0206 1.0316 1.0411 1.0493 1.0565
20 1.0628 1.0696 1.0754 1.0811 1.0864 1.0915 1.0961 1.1004 1.1047 1.1086
30 1.1124 1.1159 1.1193 1.1226 1.1255 1.1285 1.1313 1.1339 1.1363 1.1388
40 1.1413 1.1436 1.1458 1.148 1.1499 1.1519 1.1538 1.1557 1.1574 1.159
50 1.1607 1.1623 1.1638 1.1658 1.1667 1.1681 1.1696 1.1708 1.1721 1.1734
60 1.1747 1.1759 1.177 1.1782 1.1793 1.1803 1.1814 1.1824 1.1834 1.1844
70 1.1854 1.1863 1.1873 1.1881 1.189 1.1898 1.1906 1.1915 1.1923 1.193
80 1.1938 1.1945 1.1953 1.1959 1.1967 1.1973 1.198 1.1987 1.1994 1.2001
90 1.2007 1.2013 1.202 1.2026 1.2032 1.2038 1.2044 1.2049 1.2055 1.206
100 1.2065
?? The mean and standard deviation of flood
time series of 27 years is 4263 m3/s and 1433
m3/s. Estimate magnitude of the flood with a
return period of 10, 50, 100 and 200 years.
From Table reduced mean = 0.5332 and reduced std.dev =1.1004
yT = -{ln[ln(T/T-1)]}
Y10 = - ln ln (10/9) = 2.25037
K = (yT-yn)/Sn = (2.25037-0.5332)/1.1004 = 1.56
XT = 4263+1.56*1433 = 6499 m3/s
Find for X50, X100 and X200
Solve the remaining magnitude in the board?????????

Example
Q. Flood frequency computations for a river by using Gumbles
method, yielded the following results:
Return period Peak flood

T (years) (m3/s)
50 40,809
100 46,300
Estimate the flood magnitude in the river with the return

period of 500 years.
Solve in the board?????????

Confidence limit
Value of variate determined by Gumbles method
can have errors due to limited sample data.
The confidence interval indicates the limits about

the calculated value between which the true value
can be said to lie with a specific probability based
on sampling error only.
Confidence limit (Contd...)
For a confidence probability c, the confidence interval on the variate xT is
bounded by values x1 and x2
x 1 xT f ( c ) S e
2
where f( c ) =function of the confidence probability c, determined by using
the table of normal variate.
c in percent 50 68 80 90 95 99
f (c) 0.674 1.00 1.282 1.645 1.96 2.58
Se = probable error
n 1
b b 1 1.3K 1.1K 2
n
n-1 = standard deviation of the sample
K= frequency factor
n= sample size
Log Pearson Type III distribution
In this the variate is first transformed into logarithmic form (base
)10 and then data is analyzed.
If X is the variate of random hydrologic series then
z = log x

zT z K Z Z ,( n 1)
where
T = recurrence interval
Kz = a frequency factor = f (Cs , T)
Cs = coefficient of skew of the variate Z
z = standard deviation of the Z variate sample
n = sample size
n ( z z )3
Cs
(n 1)(n 2)( z ) 3
xT = antilog (zT)
Kz = F(Cs, T) FOR USE IN LOG-PEARSON TYPE III DISTRIBUTION
Recurrence interval T in years
Coefficient of skew,Cs
2 10 25 50 100 200 1000
3 -0.396 1.18 2.278 3.152 4.051 4.97 7.25
2.5 -0.36 1.25 2.262 3.048 3.845 4.652 6.6
2.2 -0.33 1.284 2.24 2.97 3.705 4.444 6.2
2 -0.307 1.302 2.219 2.912 3.605 4.298 5.91
1.8 -0.282 1.318 2.193 2.848 3.499 4.147 5.66
1.6 -0.254 1.329 2.163 2.78 3.388 3.99 5.39
1.4 -0.225 1.337 2.128 2.706 3.271 3.828 5.11
1.2 -0.195 1.34 2.087 2.626 3.149 3.661 4.82
1 -0.164 1.34 2.043 2.542 3.022 3.489 4.54
0.9 -0.148 1.339 2.018 2.498 2.957 3.401 4.395
0.8 -0.132 1.336 1.998 2.453 2.891 3.312 4.25
0.7 -0.116 1.33 1.967 2.407 2.824 3.223 4.105
0.6 -0.099 1.328 1.939 2.359 2.755 3.132 3.96
0.5 -0.083 1.323 1.91 2.311 2.686 3.041 3.815
0.4 -0.066 1.317 1.88 2.261 2.615 2.949 3.67
0.3 -0.05 1.309 1.849 2.211 2.544 2.856 3.525
0.2 -0.033 1.301 1.818 2.159 2.472 2.763 3.38
0.1 -0.017 1.292 1.785 2.107 2.4 2.67 3.235
0 0 1.282 1.751 2.054 2.326 2.576 3.09
-0.1 0.017 1.27 1.716 2 2.252 2.482 2.95
-0.2 0.033 1.258 1.68 1.945 2.178 2.388 2.81
-0.3 0.05 1.245 1.643 1.89 2.104 2.294 2.675
-0.4 0.066 1.231 1.606 1.834 2.029 2.201 2.54
-0.5 0.083 1.216 1.567 1.777 1.955 2.108 2.4
-0.6 0.099 1.2 1.528 1.72 1.88 2.016 2.275
-0.7 0.116 1.183 1.488 1.663 1.806 1.926 2.15
-0.8 0.132 1.166 1.448 1.606 1.733 1.837 2.035
-0.9 0.148 1.147 1.407 1.549 1.66 1.749 1.91
-1 0.164 1.128 1.366 1.492 1.588 1.664 1.88
-1.4 0.225 1.041 1.198 1.27 1.318 1.351 1.465
-1.8 0.282 0.945 1.035 1.069 1.087 1.097 1.13
-2.2 0.33 0.844 0.888 0.9 0.905 0.907 0.91
-3 0.396 0.66 0.666 0.666 0.667 0.667 0.668
??? The following data is pertaining to a river.
Estimate the flood peaks with 50, 100, 200, 500, and
1000 years return periods. Use Gumbels extreme
value distribution and Log Pearson Type III
distribution. Also plot the various discharges for
confidence limit of 80 to 99 % in Gumbels method.
Year 1963 1964 1965 1966 1967 1968
Flood m3/s 3210 4000 1250 3300 2480 1780
1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975
1860 4130 3110 2320 2480 3405 1820

Limitation of frequency studies
It depends upon the length of data.
Minimum no of data required, depends upon the

variability of data and also on physical and
climatological characteristics of the catchment.
At least 30 years of data is required
Smaller length record are also used when it is

unavoidable but It can not be adopted for less than 10
years of data.
Frequency studies are reliable if climates are uniform

over the years. (Global Climate changes???)
Then use only short record of data
Design floods
In the design of hydraulic structure, it is not
practical to provide safety against maximum
possible flood.
Economic consideration should be taken care of.
Small structure (culvert and storm drainage) can

be designed for less severe floods.
Storage structures requires greater attention to the

magnitude of flood.
Some Definitions
Design flood
Flood adopted for the design
Spillways design flood
Design flood used for designing the spillway
Standard project flood (SPF)

The flood that would result from a severe
combination of meteorological and hydrological
factors.
Probable maximum flood (PMF)

The extreme flood that is physically possible in the
region as a result of severe most combination.
SPF = 40 to 60% PMF
Guidelines for selecting design
floods (CWC, India)
Structure Recommended Design Flood
Spillways for major and 1. PMF determined by the UH

medium storage projects 2. Possible flood frequency
(S>60 Mm3) with T=1000 years
Minor dams, weirs, barrages 1. SPF determined by UH
(S<60 Mm3) 2. Flood with T=100 years
Pick up weirs ?? Flood with T=100 to 50 years
Aqueducts T=50 years
Project with inadequate data Empirical formulae

Risk, Reliability and Safety factor
Risk (R) : The probability of occurrence of an

event (x xT) at least once over the period of n
successive years is called the risk.
R =1- (probability of non-occurrence of the event x xT in n years

R 1 (1 P ) n where P= probability P (x xT) = 1/T
n T=return period
1
1 1
T
Reliability (Re): The remaining nof the risk
1
R e 1 R 1
T
Risk and Reliability are governed by the economic
and policy considerations
Safety factor
Hydrologic uncertainties are considered in risk and
reliability.
For other uncertainties like structural,

constructional, operational and environmental and
non technological consideration economic,
sociological and political, factor of safety should be
introduced.
Safety factor =
actual value of the parameter adopted in the design of the project
value of parameter obtained from hydrological consideration only
The difference between actual and adopted is

called safety margin.
Solve?
? A bridge has an expected life of 25 year and is
designed for a flood magnitude of return period
100 years.
(a) What is the risk of this hydrologic design.
(b) If a 10% risk is acceptable, what return period
will have to be adopted.
n 25
1 1
R 1 1 1 1 0.222
T 100
Hence the inbuilt risk in this design is 22.2 %
25
1
0.10 1 1
T
T 238 240 years
Self Study
? Log-normal distribution of flood frequency
studies
? Partial Duration Series
? Regional Flood frequency analysis
? Understand the cause and effects of flood

in your area? (hostel, Mumbai,
Maharashtra, India)
? Solve all the problem given in the class

1. Suitable method for flood estimation, flood
forecast, flood warning
2. Integrated flood mitigation program
3. Measures to reduce urban flooding

a. Design of storm water drainage systems
b. Design of road side drainage network
4. Estimation flood magnitude for minimum risk
5. Flood frequency factors estimation using AI
6. Modification to rational formula and Estimation

of runoff coefficient
7. Conservation of flood waters

A review on Distributions
Most commonly used distributions in Hydrology and
Water Resources Engineering
Normal distribution
Log-normal distribution
Binomial distribution
Geometric distribution
Poisson distribution
Exponential distribution
Gamma distribution
Extreme value distribution
Pearson Type III distribution (3 parameter
gamma distribution)
Log-Pearson Type III distribution
Extreme Value Type-I Distribution
Consider a series of N observations of a random
variable
Where, N is quite large
Let the series is divided into n sub-samples of size

m, such that
N = nm
Each sample contains a largest and smallest value
Commonly referred to as extremes corresponding,

respectively, to floods and drought
-y
Density function F(x)=e-e
Median
Mode
Mean
Theoretical distribution of largest values

Gumbels Method
Gumbel (1958) showed that the n largest values of sub-
samples asymptotically follow an extreme value (EV) type I
distribution, with PDF and CDF
{ ( x )e ( x ) }
f (x) e x
or , 0
y e y
f (x) e
e ( x )
F ( x) e
or
e y
F ( x) e y
Where, (function of variance) and (function of mode) are parameter,

y = (x ) ; =1.2825/x =x-0.45005x
Gumbels Method (Contd)
According to this theory of extreme events,

Probability of occurrence of an event equal to or
larger than a value x0 is:
e y
P X x0 1 e
Substituting the values of ,and the value of y is
1.2825( x x)
y 0.577 .1
x
Or the value of y can be expressed as

y = -ln [-ln F(y)]
In practice y is the value of x for a given

probability of exceedence and can be expresses as
yp = -ln [-ln (1-P)]
Since T=1/P, the value of y associated with return

period T is T
.2
yT ln ln
T 1
Or
T
yT 0.834 2.303loglog
T 1
Thus equation 1 can be equated to equation 2 with
return periods

xT x K n 1
yT 0.577
K
1.2825
Gumbel was the first to employ the theory of extreme
value for flood frequency analysis.
Frequently called as Gumebls extreme value distribution
Gumbels distribution
Double negative exponential distribution
Most widely used distributions for frequency analysis

of floods, maximum rainfall, maximum wind speed,
and other meteorological parameters
The mean and variance of the distribution are:

E X / =Eulers constant = 0.5772
Var X 2 / 2 6 1.645 / 2
Gumbel showed that y is a function of sample size.
When n , y 0.577
The standard deviation of y is also a function of sample size

When n , Sy 1.2825
Chow (1951)
Showed this is a log-normal distribution with constant skewness
The coefficient of skewness is approximately =1.14
Using method of moments the parameters of Gumbels is

found to be:
=1.283/x =x-0.45x
Values of reduced mean and standard deviation
REDUCED MEAN yn IN GUMBEL'S EXTREME VALUES DISTRIBUTION
N= sample size
N 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
10 0.4952 0.4996 0.5035 0.507 0.51 0.5128 0.5157 0.5181 0.5202 0.522
20 0.5236 0.5252 0.5268 0.5283 0.5296 0.5309 0.532 0.5332 0.5343 0.5353
30 0.5362 0.5371 0.538 0.5388 0.5396 0.5402 0.541 0.5418 0.5424 0.543
40 0.5436 0.5442 0.5448 0.5453 0.5458 0.5463 0.5468 0.5473 0.5477 0.5481
50 0.5485 0.5489 0.5493 0.5497 0.5501 0.5504 0.5508 0.5511 0.5515 0.5518
60 0.5521 0.5524 0.5527 0.553 0.5533 0.5535 0.5538 0.554 0.5543 0.5545
70 0.5548 0.555 0.5552 0.5555 0.5557 0.5559 0.5561 0.5563 0.5565 0.5567
80 0.5569 0.557 0.5572 0.5574 0.5576 0.5578 0.558 0.5581 0.5583 0.5585
90 0.5586 0.5587 0.5589 0.5591 0.5592 0.5593 0.5595 0.5596 0.5598 0.5599
100 0.56
REDUCED STANDARD DEVIATION Sn IN GUMBEL'S EXTREME VALUE DISTRIBUTION

N= sample size
N 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
10 0.9496 0.9676 0.9833 0.9971 1.0095 1.0206 1.0316 1.0411 1.0493 1.0565
20 1.0628 1.0696 1.0754 1.0811 1.0864 1.0915 1.0961 1.1004 1.1047 1.1086
30 1.1124 1.1159 1.1193 1.1226 1.1255 1.1285 1.1313 1.1339 1.1363 1.1388
40 1.1413 1.1436 1.1458 1.148 1.1499 1.1519 1.1538 1.1557 1.1574 1.159
50 1.1607 1.1623 1.1638 1.1658 1.1667 1.1681 1.1696 1.1708 1.1721 1.1734
60 1.1747 1.1759 1.177 1.1782 1.1793 1.1803 1.1814 1.1824 1.1834 1.1844
70 1.1854 1.1863 1.1873 1.1881 1.189 1.1898 1.1906 1.1915 1.1923 1.193
80 1.1938 1.1945 1.1953 1.1959 1.1967 1.1973 1.198 1.1987 1.1994 1.2001
90 1.2007 1.2013 1.202 1.2026 1.2032 1.2038 1.2044 1.2049 1.2055 1.206
100 1.2065
?? Prove that the mean annual flood
used in hydrology will have a return
period of 2.33 years.
FLOOD ROUTING
Flood Routing
We may have to find the magnitude of flood and
flood hydrograph parameters at a particular
space due to flood at another space or at same
space
Of course both the spaces are hydrologically
connected
The space may be very nearer also
Upstream to downstream of a reservoir storage is large
One section of the river to another section of the river
long distance
This way of finding the hydrologic route of flood
from one space to another space is called flood
routing
Flood Routing (contd)
The flood hydrograph is in fact a wave
The Stage-discharge relationship represent the
passage of waves
As this waves moves down the river
The shape of wave gets modified
Channel storage
Resistance
Lateral addition/withdrawal
When the flood passes through a reservoir
The peak is attenuated
Time base is enlarge
Due to effect of storage
Flood Routing (Contd)
Thus the main purpose of reservoir flood routing
is to safely dispose the flood magnitude by
reducing the peak and increasing the base time.
Determination of flood hydrograph at a river

section
By utilizing the data of flood flow at one or more
upstream sections
Flood routing is more useful in:

Flood forecasting
Flood protection
Reservoir design
Spillway design
Applications (Types of flood routing)
Reservoir Routing
Channel Routing
Reservoir Routing
To predict the variations of reservoir elevation
and outflow discharge with time
Study the effect of a flood wave entering a reservoir
Volume-elevation characteristic of reservoir
Outflow-elevation relationship for the spillways and other
outlets
Reservoir Routing is Essential

Design of the capacity of spillway/other reservoir
outlets
Location and sizing of the capacity of reservoirs to
meet specific requirements
Channel Routing
Change in shape of Hydrograph as it
travels down a channel is studied
To predict the flood hydrograph at various

sections of the reach
Information on the flood-peak attenuation and

the duration of high-water levels
Flood forecasting
Flood protection
Flood operations
Classification of Routing
Hydrologic Routing employs the
continuity equation
Hydraulic Routing - employs the

continuity equation together with the
momentum equation of unsteady flow
St. Venant Equations
Flood Routing
Hydrologic Routing Hydraulic Routing
(Based on Continuity Equation) Based on Momentum equation
Reservoir Routing Channel Routing

Basic equations used in hydrologic routing
The change in storage is the difference between the inflow
and outflow
dS
I Q ..1
dt
I is Inflow, Q is outflow and S is the storage
In a small time interval (t)
I t Qt S ..2
I is average Inflow, Q is average outflow during the time interval
If storage at beginning is S1 and at end is S2 during time t
I1 I 2 Q1 Q2 ..3
t t S 2 S1
2 2
In this time interval the hydrograph is linear and is smaller than the transit of the
flood wave through the reach.
St. Venant equation
(based on application of momentum equation
(used in hydraulic routing)
Differential form of Continuity Equation

Q y
T 0 ..4
x t
Equation of motion for a flood wave

y V V 1 V
S0 S f ..5
x g x g t
Hydrologic Storage Routing
(Level Pool Routing)
horizontal water surface is assumed in the reservoir
Uncontrolled spillway provided

2
Q C d 2 g Le H 3 / 2 ..6
3
Data required for reservoir routing
Storage volume vs elevation for the reservoir
Water-surface elevation vs outflow and hence

storage vs outflow discharge
Inflow hydrograph, I = I (t)
Initial values of S, I and Q at time t = 0

Methods for Flood Routing
Through a Reservoir
Modified Puls Method
Goodrich Method
Standard Fourth Order Runge-Kutta

Method (SRK)
Goodrich Method
Semi-graphical Method
On rearranging equation 3
..7
2 S 2 2 S1
I 1 I 2 Q1 Q2
t t
On collecting known and initial values
2 S1 2S 2
I 1 I 2 Q1 Q2 ..8
t t
In the above equation the starting inflow and end inflow at time
period t is known (read it from the inflow hydrograph), and the
initial storage and discharge is also known
Then estimate the value 2S 2 Q remember both are unknown

2
quantities t
Contd.
2S
To know the discharge, we need a graph between elevation Vs
t
Q

Thus called as semi graphical method
This quantity is called storage-elevation-discharge data
The graph gives the relationship between discharge and elevation
From graph estimate the elevation
From elevation estimate the discharge
Is flood routing is too

confusing
The following problem will help to understand this method
? Route the following flood hydrograph through the reservoir by Goodrich
method:
Inflow hydrograph
Time (h) 0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66
Inflow (m3/s) 10 30 85 140 125 96 75 60 46 35 25 20
The storage-elevation-discharge data is as follows:
Elevation Storage (106 m3) Outflow discharge (m3/s)

100.00 3.350 0
100.50 3.472 10
101.00 3.880 26
101.50 4.383 46
102.00 4.882 72
102.50 5.370 100
102.75 5.527 116
103.00 5.856 130
The initial conditions are when t = 0, the reservoir elevation is 100.60 m.

Step 1: Construct the storage-elevation-discharge
curve
Assume a time period of Elevation Storage
(10
6
Outflow
dischar 2S
3
6 hr (t ) m) ge Q
3
(m /s) t
Equal to time of discharge
(m3/s)
measurement in the inflow 100 3.35 0
hydrograph 310.19
Estimate the values of 100.5 3.472 10
331.48
2S 101 3.88 26
Q
t 385.26
101.5 4.383 46
Plot a graph 451.83
elevation-Vs-discharge 102 4.882 72

2S 524.04
Elevation-Vs- t Q 102.5 5.37 100
597.22
For initial time period t=0 102.75 5.527 116
find the Q2 and 2St Q 627.76
103 5.856 130
From the graph 672.22
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160
103.00
Outflow cu.m/s
102.50
Reservoir water level Elevation (m)
102.00
101.50
101.00 Storage-Discharge Vs Elevation
Discharge Vs Elevation
100.50
100.00
300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700

Storage -Discharge cu.m/s
Solution
Time 2 S1 2S 2 Elevation (m) Discharge
(h)
I I1 I 2
t
Q1

t
Q2

Q
(m3/s)
(m3/s) (m3/s) (m3/s)
0 10 340 100.6 12
6 30 40 316 =(340-
2*12)
356 Find this
=(40+316) from graph
12 85 115
18 140 225
24 125 265
30 96 221
36 75 171
42 60 135
48 46 106
54 35 81
60 25 60
66 20 45
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160
103.00
Outflow cu.m/s
102.50
102.00
101.50
100.50
100.00
300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700

Solution
Time 2S 2S Elevation (m) Discharge
(h)
I I1 I 2
t
Q

t
Q

Q
(m3/s)
(m3/s) (m3/s) (m3/s)
0 10 340 100.6 12
6 30 40 340-2*12=316 40+316 100.74 17

=356
12 85 115 356- 322+115 From graph
2*17=322 =437 find this
18 140 225
24 125 265
30 96 221
36 75 171
42 60 135
48 46 106
54 35 81
60 25 60
66 20 45
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130 140 150 160
103.00
Outflow cu.m/s
102.50
102.00
101.50
100.50
100.00
300 350 400 450 500 550 600 650 700

Solution
(h)
I I1 I 2
t
Q

t
Q

Q
(m3/s)
(m3/s) (m3/s) (m3/s)
0 10 340 100.6 12
6 30 40 340-2*12=316 40+316 100.74 17

=356
12 85 115 356- 322+115 101.38 40
2*17=322 =437
18 140 225 437-2*40 357+225
= 357 = 582
24 125 265
30 96 221
36 75 171
42 60 135
48 46 106
54 35 81
60 25 60
66 20 45
Solution
(h)
I I1 I 2
t
Q

t
Q

Q
(m3/s)
(m3/s) (m3/s) (m3/s)
0 10 340 100.6 12
6 30 40 316 =(340- 356 100.74 17

2*12)
12 85 115 322 437 101.38 40
18 140 225 357 582 102.50 95
24 125 265 392 657 102.92 127
30 96 221 403 624 102.70 112
36 75 171 400 571 102.32 90
42 60 135 391 526 102.02 73
48 46 106 380 486 101.74 57
54 35 81 372 453 101.51 46
60 25 60 361 421 101.28 37
66 20 45 347 392 101.02 27
335
What we achieved through this flood routing
1. The peak discharge magnitude is 160.00
Lag
reduced, this is called attenuation.
140.00
Attenuation
2. The peak of outflow gets shifted and
is called as lag 120.00
In flo w /o u tflo w in c u .m /s
Inflow hydrograph
100.00 Outflow hydrograph
3. The difference in rising limb shows
the reservoir is storing the water
80.00
4. The difference in receding limb

shows the reservoir is depleted. 60.00
40.00
5. When the outflow is through
uncontrolled spillway, the peak of
outflow always occurs at point of 20.00
inflection of inflow hydrograph and
also is the point at which the inflow
0.00
and outflow hydrograph intersect.
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
Time in hrs
Hydrologic Channel Routing
In reservoir routing storage was a unique function
of the outflow discharge, S = f(Q)
Here, Storage is a function of both outflow and

inflow discharges
Therefore different routing method needed
River flow during floods belongs to the category of

gradually varied unsteady flow
Water is not only parallel to the channel bottom,

but also varies with time
Total Volume of Storage in a channel during flood
Prism Storage: vol. that would exist if uniform flow occurred at the
downstream depth
= function (outflow)
Wedge storage: wedge like vol. formed between the actual water
surface profile and the top surface of the prism storage
= function (inflow)
The total storage in the channel is given by:

S K xI 1 x Q
m m
..9
K, and x are coefficients and m-is a constant

Muskingum Equation
One of the most popular channel routing
Uses the hydrologic spatially lumped form of the continuity equation
First applied to Muskingum river in Ohio state, USA
Tributary of Ohio river
Length 179 km (111 mi )

Basin area 20,852 km (8,051 mi )
Muskingum Equation (Contd)
Using m =1.0, equation 9. reduces to a linear relationship
for S in terms of I and Q as
S K xI 1 x Q ..10
x weighting factor varies bet. 0 to 0.5
S K Q
..11
When x = 0, storage function is discharge only

Linear storage or linear reservoir
x = 0.5 both inflow and outflow are equally imp. In determining
storage
K storage-time constant ~ time of travel of a flood wave
through the channel reach
Estimation of K and x
Like reservoir routing in
channel routing also we can
draw inflow-outflow
hydrograph through a
channel reach
t t
The increment in storage at I1 I 2 Q1 Q2 S
any time t due to a small time 2 2
period t can be calculated.
The summation of the

various incremental storage
gives us the channel storage
Vs time relationship
Estimation of K and x (contd)
Once this storage Vs time is known for a reach
Assume a value of x and estimate xI 1 x Q

for various time intervals
Draw the graph between the storage and xI 1 x Q

if the assumed x is correct we will get a linear line, else a
loop will be formed
By trial and error find the value of x until a straight line is

formed
Inverse slope of the line will give the value of K
Let us see how to estimate this using an example

? The following inflow and outflow hydrographs were observed in a river
reach. Estimate the values of K and x applicable to this reach for use in the
Muskingum equation.
Time (h) 0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54 60 66
Inflow (m3/s) 5 20 50 50 32 22 15 10 7 5 5 5
Outflow (m3/s) 5 6 12 29 38 35 29 23 17 13 9 7
3
Time I Q (I-Q) Avg. S= S= [xI + (1-x) Q] (m /s)
S
3 3
(h) (m /s) (m /s) (I-Q) Col. 5 x t
3
(m /s.h) x = 0.35 x = 0.3 x = 0.25
0 5 5 0 0 5 5 5
6 20 6 14 7 42 42 10.9 10.2 9.5
12 50 12 38 26 156 198 25.3 23.4 21.5
18 50 29 21 29.5 177 375 36.35 35.3 34.25
24 32 38 -6 7.5 45 420 35.9 36.2 36.5
30 22 35 -13 -9.5 -57 363 30.45 31.1 31.75
36 15 29 -14 -13.5 -81 282 24.1 24.8 25.5
42 10 23 -13 -13.5 -81 201 18.45 19.1 19.75
48 7 17 -10 -11.5 -69 132 13.5 14 14.5
54 5 13 -8 -9 -54 78 10.2 10.6 11
60 5 9 -4 -6 -36 42 7.6 7.8 8
66 5 7 -2 -3 -18 24 6.3 6.4 6.5
40.00
35.00
30.00
[x I+(1-x)Q] cu.m/s
25.00
20.00
15.00 x=0.35
x=0.3
x=0.25
10.00 x=0.2
5.00
0 100 200 300 400 500

Storage from continuity equation (cu.m/s) hr
Muskingum Method of Routing
40.00
For a given channel reach 35.00
K and x are assumed to be

constant 30.00
will not change with respect to
[x I+(1-x)Q] cu.m/s
time 25.00
But changes when the shape of 20.00

channel changes in the reach
15.00 x=0.35
For a given channel reach by x=0.2
selecting a routing interval t 10.00
and using the Muskingum 5.00
equation the change in 0 100 200 300 400

Storage from continuity equation (cu.m/s) hr
500
storage is
I I Q Q1 ..12
S 2 S 1 2 1 t 2 t
2 2
The continuity eqn. for the
reach is
S 2 S1 K xI 2 I1 1 x Q2 Q1 ..13
On simplifying the equations 12 and 13
Q2 C1 I1 C 2 I 2 C3Q1 ..14
where
Kx 0.5t Kx 0.5t
C1 C2
K Kx 0.5t K Kx 0.5t
K Kx 0.5t
C3
K Kx 0.5t
C1 C 2 C3 1.0
In general form for the n th time step
Qn C1 I n 1 C 2 I n C3Qn 1 ..15
n=2,3,4,
This equation is known as Muskingum
Routing Equation
It provides a simple linear equation for

channel routing
Procedure to use Muskingum Equation to route a
given inflow hydrograph through a reach
Knowing K and x, select an appropriate value of t
Calculate C1, C2 and C3
Starting from the initial conditions I1, Q1 and known I2

at the end of the first time step t calculate Q2 by
Muskingum equation (14 or 15)
The outflow calculated in above step becomes the

known initial outflow for the next time step. Repeat
the calculations for the entire inflow hydrograph
? Route the following hydrograph through a river reach for
which K = 12.0 h and x = 0.20. At the start of the inflow flood,
the outflow discharge is 10 m3/s.
Time (h) 0 6 12 18 24 30 36 42 48 54
Inflow (m3/s) 10 20 50 60 55 45 35 27 20 15
3 3
Time (h) I (m /s) 0.429 I1 0.048 I2 0.523 Q1 Q (m /s)
0 10 10
6 20 4.29 0.96 5.23 10.48
12 50 8.58 2.40 5.48 16.46
18 60 21.45 2.88 8.61 32.94
24 55 25.74 2.64 17.23 45.61
30 45 23.60 2.16 23.85 49.61
36 35 19.31 1.68 25.94 46.93
42 27 15.02 1.30 24.54 40.86
48 20 11.58 0.96 21.37 33.91
54 15 8.58 0.72 17.74 27.04
Flood Control
All the measures adopted to reduce damages
to life and property by floods
Flood control measures

Structural Methods
Storage and detention reservoirs
Levees (flood embankments)
Channel improvement
Flood ways (new channels)
Soil conservation
Non-structural methods
Flood plain zoning
Flood warning evacuation and relocation
Self Study
Hydrologic routing other famous
methods
Hydraulic routing
Flood forecasting
Solve all the problems in this section

1. Suitable methods for flood forecasting
2. Estimation of Muskingum parameters using

AI (mostly using Genetic Algorithms and
Genetic Programming).
3. Use of Nash IUH model for flood forecasting
4. Use of AI for estimation of Nash parameters

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Introduction

Thus it is study of Hydrological Cycle and

Engineering or Applied Hydrology: study

Important Processes Sub-surface flow

2. Time of occurrence of each process

3. Intensity and frequency of each process

Input SYSTEM Output

System design System analysis System synthesis

1. Physical Process Conceptual Models Empirical Models

2. Values Deterministic Probabilistic Stochastic Fuzzy

4. Geometry (or) Lumped Distributed (geometric distribution

5. Relationship of Linear Model Non-linear Model

6. Time (Day, Hr., Time Based Event Based

7. Based on Single variate Multivariate

8. Based on Single Site Multisite

SSC NSSCC SSE NSSE SDC NSDC SDE NSDE

SC Model Nash Model

Change in storage over a period of time

Average outflow over a period of time

Initial storage S1 = 3 ha m = 30000 m3

Change in storage = - 9900 m3

Fraction of water vapor in atmosphere is

Some of the common measures of atmospheric moisture

ice crystal process coalescence process

hence large size fall at greater velocity

this is basis for artificial rain or cloud

All water cannot be removed from atmosphere by natural processes

if P = precipitable water normally measured in cm or mm or inches

If thickness has varying relative humidity

Glaze: water drops freeze to form an ice coating

Sleet: frozen raindrops of transparent grains

Hail: showery precipitation in the form of

Extra tropical cyclone:

??Explain the theory of precipitation

Transition-I, Post-monsoon (October-November)

Winter season (December-February)

Transition-II, Summer, (March-May)

Regions of avg. elevation 1000m:

Hilly areas with heavy rainfall

For a 10% error in the estimation of the mean rainfall,

Ans: m=6 Average = 118.6 Std.Dev = 35.04

Average rainfall by inverse method is 2.14 cm

- damage and replacement of a raingauge

A method called Double Mass Curve is used for adjusting

Cumulative rainfall of Station A (cm)

1997 145 155 1362 1426 1661.00

Station rainfall refers to the rainfall data of a

Although, most of these calculations are done

Rainfall Rainfall (cm)

Locate all rainfall stations on a

Draw isohyets (lines of equal

Calculate the fraction of catchment area under each isohyet,

Mean Rainfall = 35.14 i.e. from (43225/1230)

Intensity-Duration-frequency curves (IDF)

Intensity duration curves (ID)

Maximum rainfall-area curves (DA)

Maximum rainfall-duration curves (AD)

of various return period (remember

Maximum rainfall-area curves (DA)

This random rainfall arranged in chronological order

Frequency is the probability of occurrence of a particular

The purpose of frequency analysis is to obtain a relation

The probability analysis may be made either by empirical

The probability of the event not occurring in a given year is q=(1-P)