Lancaster 1

Michael Lancaster

Ammar Hussein

English 2010

July7, 2017

Food Supply and Demand with Population Growth

The population explosion is a threatening concept for many. One threat in particular

with a growth in population is the increased food demand. Will the world be able to supply the

food demand of a population explosion? Why should the world feed even more people and

threaten its own chance for survival? Farmland and water are scarce, world temperatures are

rising, and environmental problems of modern agriculture are a threat for world ecosystems.

However, we are fully capable of producing enough food as a planet for this explosion. One

of the sad things about the modern world is that so much of it takes food for granted. For most of

recorded history, the struggle to eat has been the main focus of human activity, and all but a

handful of people were either farmers or farm workers. Starvation was a threat. Even the best

years rarely supplied much of a surplus to carry over as an insurance against tougher times. In

the worst, none but the powerful could be sure of a full stomach.

Now most people in rich countries never have to worry about where the next meal is

coming from. In 1900 two in every five American workers labored on a farm, now one in 50

does (Elizabeth Buff). Even in poor places such as India, where famine still struck until the mid-

20th century, the assumption that everyone will have something to eat is increasingly built into

the rhythm of life. Which makes me wonder why this issue is such a threat.

Overpopulation is an emotional concept for many. With refugees, poverty, malnutrition,

and hunger broadcasted onto televisions around the world every day, emotional pictures seem to
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be more convincing than facts. However, not having enough food for this so called population

explosion is a myth. Today, we have 7.3 billion people. In 2050, we will have around 9 billion,

and in 2100 the world population will possibly reach its peak with about 10-11 billion people

(Dr. Nafees Sadiq). This implies an actual annual population increase of less than 1 percent with

a tendency to fall to zero by 2100. With this information its difficult to see any warrant for this

population explosion. World fertility patterns tend to change due to rising income, and that is

what might facilitate that drop to zero percent growth. With rising income food consumption

patterns also change. Calorie intakes of poor and rich people are surprisingly similar, but rich

people consume more protein. This adds about a further 1 percent growth to food demand which

means that the world will need to produce approximately two percent more food annually if

todays poor become rich. Will we be able to sustainably supply that extra two percent? The

answer is most likely yes.

As far as food production versus food consumption goes. The world produces about 2.5

billion tons of cereals at present. A person needs a little more than 500 grams a day in grain-

based diets, or 200 kilograms per year, which would be equivalent to one ton of cereals for a

family of five. If we consider that the family would become richer and shift its consumption

patterns to include more milk, meat, and eggs, it would need more cereals because animals

would need to be partly fed with cereals. If we consider a grain-based diet with an already-

moderate consumption of protein, current world cereals production could feed more than 10

billion people if distributed well. These numbers provide some comfort, they at least show a

feasible plan.

The growth of supply needed for the futureabout 2 percent annuallyhas to come

mainly from available farmland to avoid an overly negative impact on fragile ecosystems. This
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requires finance, investments, innovation, and knowledge to improve the yields at existing

farmlands (David Biello). The yield gap between whats needed and whats being produced is

still very high. Farmers in the Netherlands produce 8.6 tons of cereals per hectare, Ukrainian

farmers produce 4 tons per hectare, and yields in Nigeria are stagnant at 1.5 tons per hectare.

This can be a colossal step in the right direction if we are able to even out these discrepancies.

On the demand side, reducing food waste can have a significant impact on the availability

of food. The average European is wasting 179 kg of food in the value chain from the farm gate to

the lunch or dinner table. This is almost the annual consumption of a poor person mainly living

on cereals. Reducing food waste can improve the efficiency of food value chains and help to

distribute food more evenly to those in need.

This means that we could quite easily provide food for 10 billion people on the planet.

There is considerable potential on both the food supply and demand side to provide more food

for all. Annual growth of demand can be met by helping farmers to intensify production where

the yield gap is high. Conscious consumption and less waste in rich countries would already be a

safe strategy to provide affordable food for all.

Global crop production increased a lot in recent decades. Studies of major crop groups

including cereals, oilseeds, fruits, and vegetables show that production increased by roughly 47

percent between 1985 and 2005 (Feeding the ten billion). However, when you consider all 174

crops tracked by the Food and Agriculture Organization, global production increased by about 28

percent over that time period. This was achieved through three kinds of changes: Expansion of

global croplands: During this period, the area of land in agriculture expanded by 2.4 percent

Increase in harvested land: The area of existing croplands harvested grew by 7 percent between

1985 and 2005. This change was due to improvements in multiple cropping, fewer crop failures.
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Increased crop yields: After accounting for the changes above, average global crop yields

increased by about 20 percent.

Basic math tells us that to double the food supply by 2050 from increased crop

production alone, yields will need to increase each year by roughly 2.4 percent of 2007 yields.

Further expansion of agriculture is a poor solution to meeting future needs because were using

nearly all of the land thats suitable for agriculture already. Relying on increased production

alonewhether through increased yields or harvest frequencywill be an important solution.

To use food supply and demand as a reason to control this so called population explosion

seems unwarranted. We are able to prove sustainably meeting this future increased demand.
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Works Cited

Biello, David. "Another Inconvenient Truth: The World's Growing Population Poses a
Malthusian Dilemma." Scientific American. N.p., 02 Oct. 2009. Web. 07 July 2017.

Buff, Elizabeth. "Can We Solve World Hunger and Feed 9 Billion People Just By Eating Less
Meat?" One Green Planet. N.p., 20 May 2017. Web. 06 July 2017.

"Can We Feed the Future World Population?" Feeding the Population - Articles: Can We Feed
the Future World Population? Population Reference Bureau, 1997. Web. 10 July 2017.

"Feeding the ten billion." The Economist. The Economist Newspaper, 09 June 2016. Web. 06
July 2017.

"Issues We Address." Population Media Center. N.p., n.d. Web. 09 July 2017.

Madre, Yves, and Pieter Devuyst. "How will we feed the world in the next decades? An analysis
of the demand and supply factors for food." FarmEurope. N.p., n.d. Web. 08 July 2017.

Pimentel, David, and Mario Giampietro. "FOOD, LAND, POPULATION and the U.S.
ECONOMY." Carrying Capacity Network (CCN), 21 Nov. 1994. Web. 09 July 2017.

Sadik, Nafis, Dr. "Population growth and the food crisis." Population growth and the food crisis.
FOA Corporate Document Repository, n.d. Web. 10 July 2017.

"World Population Day: How Do We Feed A Growing Population?" Discover Monsanto.

Monsanto Corporate Engagement, 22 Sept. 2015. Web. 11 July 2017.