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TG 5113 Advanced Geostatistics

Statistics and
Geostatistics
Role of statistics in engineering and geology

The complexity of natural phenomena


Summaries of number

Analyzing and exploring data

Deterministic versus Stochastic Systems


Hybrid system
Definition:
A Simple random sample of measurements from a population is
one selected, where every sample of size n has equal probability
of being selected, and every member of the population has equal
probability of being included in the sample.
An experiment that can result in different outcomes, even
though it is repeated in the same manner every time, is call a
random experiment.
The set of possible outcomes of a random experiment is called
the sample space (S) of the experiment.
HISTORY OF GEOSTATISTICS

1. Many misconceptions about geostatistics (it should be depend on data,


asumtion, and hypotheses)
2. What it can or can not do for the petroleum industry .
Spatial model (kriging, ..)
Simulation and uncertainty (risk) analysis.
3. Quantify and model spatial variability.
Scale of variability (heterogeneity)
Directionality.
Origins Of Geostatistics.

1950 D.G. Krige (South Arfican Mining Engineer).


H.S. Sickel (Statisticean).
Classical Statistics was found unstable.
1960 Geroge Matheron (French Engineer).
Theory of Regionalized Variables.
Kriging for D.G. Krige.
1970 Kriging had proved to be very useful in mining industry with high
speed computer.
1975 Geostatistic in petroleum community first software pickage BLUE
PACK
Geostatistics in the petroleum industries.
~ Maps and mapmaking are parts of reservoir
characterization.
~ Map is a numerical model of an attributes (porosity,
permeability, thickness, structure) spatial distribution.
~ Mapping is not a goal but is for the prediction of reservoir.
~ Geostatistics necessitates and facilitates cooperation
between
Geoscientists and Reservoir engineers.
Journal : It is better to have a model of uncertainty than an
illusion of reality.
Typical reservoir-simulation process
Gridblock
Petrophysical
Properties

Performance

Np Fw

Time Time
Heterogeneity scales; SEM = scanning electron microscopy
(courtesy of Academic Press).
TABLE 1.1 SCALES OF RESERVOIR HETEROGENEITIES (from Ref. 1)

Geologic
Measurement Observations/ Flow Performance Flow Process
Type Level Scale Measurements Measurements Effect Effect
Micro Pore m Pore geometry Texture Displacement Complex EOR process
Grain size Mineralogy efficiency (trapped oil)
Mineralogy Fractures

Macro Core inch K Lamination Sweep efficiency Secondary recovery


kr Crossbedding baffles (bypassed oil) (waterflooding)
within genetic units
Pc
Wettability
Saturation

Mega Gridblock foot Logs Boundaries of genetic Sweep efficiency Secondary recovery
RFTs units (bypassed oil) (waterflooding)
Single-well tracer Permeability zonation
Seismic within units

Giga Interwell mile Well test Sealing/ nonsealing Extraction efficiency Primary recovery
Surface seismic faults (untrapped oil)
Interwell tracer
tests
Comparison between well test and core data
(courtesy of Academic Press)

TABLE 1.2-ROCK VOLUMES INVESTIGATED FOR DIFFERENT LOGS (from Ref. 3)


Vertical Radial Depth of Investigation Angular Rock Volume
Resolution Dispersion Investigated

Observation (in.) (in.) (%) (degrees (in. 3)

Density 15 5 30 245

Neutron (mandrel) 24 16 360 28,952

Microelectrical log 2 1.5 50 30 7

Gamma ray 20 15 360 21,676

Unaided human eye focusing on a one-third slab of 4-in. whole 0.2 NA NA NA


core from a distance of 24 in.

Dipmeter (one button) 0.5 6 90 14 5

Borehole televiewer 0.3 0.1 360 0.7/Scan

Correlation core gamma ray of a-4-in core by use of 3-in. diameter 6 4 NA 75


detector

6FF40 96 50 90 360 824,619

1 ft of 4-in. core 12 NA 360 150

1- x 2-in. plug 1 NA 360 1.6

MWD resistivity 6 32 90 360 24,127

MWD bit resistivity (oil-based mud) 1 32 90 360 4,021


Effect of heterogeneities on sweep efficiency
Effect of gigascopic heterogeneities on performance
Reservoir modeling and
simulation
Advantages
1. The ability to test new procedures and concepts
2. The ability to represent complex physical
processes
3. The ability to incorporate reservoir
heterogenities at various scales
4. The ability to forecast future performance under
existing conditions
5. The ability to interpret performance under
varied operating conditions.
Gridblock configurations

Block 1

Block 2
Reservoir
models
Core plugs Whole core Well logs Well testing

Reservoir description

1. analysis
2. construction
Borehole geophysics Outcrop studies Surface seismics
3. history matching
4. calibration
5. future performance prediction

Geologists
Expert knowledge
(a) Series vs. (b) parallel modeling
4.000

Average Reservoir Pressure, psia


100

Cumulative Production, MMSTB


3.400 80

2.800 60

2.200 40

1.600 20

1.000 0
1957 1964 1971 1978 1985 1992 1957 1964 1971 1978 1985 1992

(a) Time, years Time, years


Average Reservoir Pressure, psia

4.000 120

Cumulative Production, MMSTB


100
3.400

80
2.800
60
2.200
40

1.600
20

1.000 0
1957 1964 1971 1978 1985 1992 1957 1964 1971 1978 1985 1992

(b) Time, years Time, years


Prediction of future performance

Oil Oil
Produced Produced

Historical Data Historical Data

Time Time
Pearmeability values as a function of distance

Measurement 1 Measurement 2

60

50
Permeability, md

40

30

20

10

0
0 2 4 6 8 10

Sample Number
Data configuration of sampled data

1
X
2
X 1
0 X 0 X
3
2 3
X X
Normal Distribution
Objectives
Introduce the Normal Distribution
Properties of the Standard Normal
Distribution
Introduce the Central Limit Theorem
Use Normal Distribution in an inferential
fashion
Theoretical Distribution
Empirical distributions
based on data

Theoretical distribution
based on mathematics

derived from model or estimated from

data
Normal Distribution
Why are normal distributions so important?
Many dependent variables are commonly
assumed to be normally distributed in the
population
If a variable is approximately normally
distributed we can make inferences about
values of that variable
Example: Sampling distribution of the mean
Normal Distribution
Symmetrical, bell-shaped curve
Also known as Gaussian distribution
Point of inflection = 1 standard deviation
from mean
Mathematical formula

(X ) 2
1
f (X ) (e) 2 2
2
Since we know the shape of the curve, we can
calculate the area under the curve
The percentage of that area can be used to
determine the probability that a given value could
be pulled from a given distribution
The area under the curve tells us about the probability-
in other words we can obtain a p-value for our result
(data) by treating it as a normally distributed data set.
Key Areas under the Curve

For normal distributions


+ 1 SD ~ 68%
+ 2 SD ~ 95%
+ 3 SD ~ 99.9%
Example IQ mean = 100 s = 15
Problem:
Each normal distribution with its own

values of and would need its own


calculation of the area under various
points on the curve
Normal Probability Distributions
Standard Normal Distribution N(0,1)

We agree to use the


standard normal
distribution
Bell shaped
=0
=1
Note: not all bell
shaped distributions are
normal distributions
Normal Probability Distribution
Can take on an infinite
number of possible
values.
The probability of any
one of those values
occurring is essentially
zero.
Curve has area or
probability = 1
Normal Distribution
The standard normal distribution will allow
us to make claims about the probabilities of
values related to our own data
How do we apply the standard normal
distribution to our data?
Z-score
If we know the population mean and
population standard deviation, for any value
of X we can compute a z-score by
subtracting the population mean and
dividing the result by the population
standard deviation

X
z

Important z-score info
Z-score tells us how far above or below the mean
a value is in terms of standard deviations
It is a linear transformation of the original scores
Multiplication (or division) of and/or addition to (or
subtraction from) X by a constant
Relationship of the observations to each other remains
the same
Z = (X-)/
then
X = Z +
[equation of the general form Y = mX+c]
Probabilities and z scores: z
tables
Total area = 1
Only have a probability from width
For an infinite number of z scores each point

has a probability of 0 (for the single point)


Typically negative values are not reported
Symmetrical, therefore area below negative

value = Area above its positive value


Always helps to draw a sketch!
Probabilities are depicted by areas under the curve

Total area under the curve is


1
The area in red is equal to
p(z > 1)
The area in blue is equal to
p(-1< z <0)
Since the properties of the
normal distribution are
known, areas can be looked
up on tables or calculated on
computer.
Strategies for finding probabilities for
the standard normal random variable.
Draw a picture of standard normal
distribution depicting the area of interest.
Re-express the area in terms of shapes like
the one on top of the Standard Normal
Table
Look up the areas using the table.
Do the necessary addition and subtraction.
Suppose Z has standard normal
distribution Find p(0<Z<1.23)
Find p(-1.57<Z<0)
Some distributions and their means and Standard Deviations

10
n 29, 3.1

Number
5

0
40 45 50
Figure N (20,4) of The Sandstone
Porosities

0.2

N (20,4)

0.1

0 X
12 16 20 24 28

Porosity (%)
y
0.4
The standardised
normal distribution
N( 0,1 ) and its N ( 0.1 )
0.3
properties

0.2

-1.96 -1.96
0.1
-2.576 Encloses 95% of area under curve -2.576

99 % Z

-3 -2 -1 0 +1 +2 +3

1 68.27%
2 95.45%
3 99.72%
Summaries 27 Januari 2015
Mahasiswa diharapkan memahami
prinsip statistik.
Variabel Random
Distribusi normal,
fungsi normal
Rata-rata, standar deviasi