UnderstandingandExplaining

theUkraineRussiaConflict
Dr.NadiyaKravets
GISPostdoctoralFellow,
HarvardUkrainianResearchInstitute
VisitingScholar,DavisCenter

@nadiyakravets
 Roadmap
WhatisUkraine?
BriefhistoryofUkraineandUkraineRussia
relations
Whatisthecurrentconflictabout?
Thecausesoftheconflict
ConsequencesforUkraine,RussiaandtheWest
SovereigntyasTHEfundamentalproblemin
Ukraine RussiarelationshipandotherFSU
states
 Ukrainenot(theUkraine)
CountryinEasternEuropeandthelargestcountryin
Europe

Humansettlementsontheterritorysince32,000BC
andareanimportantpartoftheculturalheritageof
contemporaryUkrainians

Endowedwithrich,fertilefarmlands

Aunitarystate,semipresidentialsystem
(parliamentary presidential)

Ranked142onTransparencyInternationalCorruption
Index(Russia136)outof175
 HistoricalmilestonesorhowUkrainians
tracetheirheritageandidentity
Prehistoriccultures leftmarkoncultural
practicesinmoderndayUkraine

neolithic (CucuteniTrypillian culture,Sredny Stog

Culture,Yamna Culture,CatacombCulture)

IronAge(Dacians,Cimmerians,Scythiansand
Sarmatians,aswellasGreekcoloniesintheBlack
Sea)

earlyAD(Gothsarrival,KyivCulture,Huns,Slavic
tribeexpansionduring5th century)
Cucuteni Trypillian
 HistoricalmilestonesorhowUkrainians
tracetheirheritageandidentity
MiddleAgesandEarlyModernPeriod

Kyivan RusanditsGoldenAge (Christianization;

cradleofpremodernSlavicsovereignties)

GoldenHordeandpartitionoftheKyivan Rus

RiseofMuscovy,Tsardom ofMuscovy,Russian
Empire
Source:Serhii Plokhii,TheOriginsofSlavicNations:Premodern IdentitiesinRussia,UkraineandBelarus (CambridgeUniversity
Press,2006)
Source:Serhii Plokhii,TheOriginsofSlavicNations:Premodern IdentitiesinRussia,UkraineandBelarus (CambridgeUniversity
Press,2006)
Source:Serhii Plokhii,TheOriginsofSlavicNations:Premodern IdentitiesinRussia,UkraineandBelarus (CambridgeUniversity
Press,2006)
 HistoricalmilestonesorhowUkrainians
tracetheirheritageandidentity
ModernPeriod

PolishLithuanianCommonwealth,RussianEmpire,
theAustroHungarianEmpire,OttomanEmpire,the
CrimeanKhanateandtheHetmanate

WWIandattemptsatindependence(thebirthof
modernUkrainiansovereignty)

Sovietexpansionandtheformationofmodern
boundariesofUkraine
Source:Serhii Plokhii,TheOriginsofSlavicNations:Premodern IdentitiesinRussia,UkraineandBelarus (CambridgeUniversity
Press,2006)
Source:Serhii Plokhii,TheOriginsofSlavicNations:Premodern IdentitiesinRussia,UkraineandBelarus (CambridgeUniversity
Press,2006)
Source:Serhii Plokhii,TheOriginsofSlavicNations:Premodern IdentitiesinRussia,UkraineandBelarus (CambridgeUniversity
Press,2006)
LegaciesoftheSovietdisillusion
 Furtherreferences
PaulRobertMagocsi,AHistoryofUkraine:The
LandandItsPeoples (UniversityofTorontoPress,2010)

Serhii Plokhii,TheOriginsofSlavicNations:Premodern
IdentitiesinRussia,UkraineandBelarus (Cambridge
UniversityPress,2006)

StephenVelychenko,StateBuildinginRevolutionaryUkraine
19171922 (UniversityofTorontoPress,2011)

EdwardW.Walker,Dissolution:SovereigntyandtheBreakup
oftheSovietUnion (Rowman andLittlefield,2003)
 Whatistheconflictabout?
2narratives
Sovereignty(Ukraineandmostoftheinternational
community)
UkrainesreferendumonindependenceofDecember1991

UkrainesConstitutionandtheConstitutionoftheCrimean
AutonomousRepublic(throughtheCrimeanreferendum
andannexation)

Bilateralagreements(CISMinskTreaty1991;1997
FriendshipTreaty)

Internationalagreements(TheFinalActoftheConference
onSecurityandCooperationinEurope1975 1991;1994
BudapestMemorandum assurancesaspartofNPT;UN
CharterArticles2&4)
IndependentUkraine:
1991referendum
 Whatistheconflictabout?
2narratives
SelfdeterminationoftheCrimeaandself
proclaimedrepublicsofDonetskandLuhansk
(Russia,Armenia,Belarus,Cuba,Nicaragua,North
Korea,Syria,Sudan,Venezuela,Zimbabwe)

Euromaidan revolutionasanillegitimatecoup

SuppressionofRussianminoritiesinUkraineasabasis
forlegitimacyofRussiasannexationoftheCrimea
andsupportforseparatismintheDonbasregions

Crimeanreferendumaslegitimateexpressionofself
determinationofpeoples
UNGeneralAssemblyResolution68/262
TerritorialIntegrityofUkraine,March27,2014
 Legitimacyoftherevolution
Waselectedthroughaslimmajorityon17January2010(48.95%Viktor
Yanukovych;45.47%Yulia Tymoshenko)

DuringhistermasaPresident,usurpedthepowertoeliminatechecksand
balancesonhispolicies(throughfavorableConstitutionalCourtappointments
overturnedthe2004Constitutionalamendmentsandreturnedtosuper
presidentialmodel;hispartytookallcontrolovercentralandregionalgovernment
posts;increaseinmediacensorshipandcorruption triedtobuildPutinlike
modelinUkraine)

Yanukovychs legitimate,butsemiconstitutionalousting:OnFebruary21Foreign
mediatedagreementsigned,butYanukovych alreadypreparingtoleave.Peopleon
Maidan andradicalizedgroupsdismisstheagreementandgiveanultimatumto
Yanukovych tostepdown.OnFebruary22Yanukovych fleesandquicklyfollowing
hisdeparturetheParliamentbyconstitutionalmajorityvotestoremoveViktor
Yanukovych fromthepostofthePresidentofUkraine 328from447 onthe
groundsoffailingtofulfillhisduties.
 WhatwasthecauseoftheEuromaidan revolution?

NationalsurveybytheKyivInternationalInstituteofSociology,February818,
2014,includingCrimea,2032respondents.
Whichsideoftheprotestsdoyouempathizewith?
Fromrevolutiontoanundeclaredwar
betweenUkraineandRussia:why?
 CausesoftheUkraineRussiaConflict
Structural/geopolitical:UShegemonyandRussiasgrowing
rejectionoftheWesternorder

Regional:ChangingperspectivesoftheRussianeliteson
theexpansionofNATOandtheEuropeanUnion;Ukraines
growingdesireforenergyindependence,freetrade&
associationwiththeEUandRussiasinabilitytoaccept
UkrainesWestphalian sovereignty

Domestic:RussiasgrowingauthoritarianismandOrange
fears(Colorrevolutions,Bolotnaya protests,Euromaidan);
democraticUkraineasathreattomanageddemocracy
modelinRussiaandinthewiderpostSovietspace
AnnexationofCrimea:plannedbutEuromaidan
servedasatriggertoputtheplanintoaction
hadtobeexecutedswiftly
SeparatisminDonbasorforeign
backedinsurgency?
 HowhasallegiancetoindependentUkraine
changedoverthelasttwodecades?

Reflectingonrecentevents,ifseparatisminthe
CrimeaandtheDonbaswasandisagenuine
grassrootsmovementthenhowandwhyhave
thepopularpreferenceschangedsoradically
since1991?
 IndependentUkraine:
visualizationproject
http://gis.huri.harvard.edu/independentukraine/aboutthe
independentukraineproject.html

illustratesovereigntypreferencesinUkraineover
time(asamarkerofcivicnationalism)

UsingannualsurveysbyKyivInternational
InstituteofSociology(KIIS):19952014,12
surveys

arenationalsurveyvisualizationsuseful?
(externalandinternalvalidityproblemsfor
regions)
 Whatkindofrelationshipwouldyouliketosee
betweenUkraineandRussia?

1. Theyshouldbelikebetweenotherstateswithclosed
borders,visasandcustoms

1. UkraineandRussiashouldbeindependent,butfriendly
stateswithopenborders,andwithoutvisasandcustoms

2. UkraineandRussiashoulduniteintoonestate

3. Hardtosay

4. Refusetoanswer
 Macrotrends
AnalyzingtrendsbeforeEuromaidan
revolution(1995 May2013)andafter(
September2013 April2014)

In1990sgreaterpolarizationbetweenGalicia
andDonbas,byMay2013Ukrainianswere
moreunitedintheirviewofrelationswith
Russia:friendlywithopenborders,novisas
andnocustoms
 Macrotrends

BroadbasedproRussianseparatistmovement
intheDonbasandtheCrimeawasmuchmore
likelytoemergeduringlate1990s,when
popularsupportforunificationwithRussia
stoodat5878%intheCrimea,Luhansk and
Donetskoblasts;decliningeversinceto2432%
inNovember2013(rightbeforetherevolution)
 MacrotrendsafterMaidan

Euromaidan reignitedsomepolarization
betweenGaliciaandDonbasinregardsto
relationswithMoscow
ButevenduringtheheightofEuromaidan inlate
February,majorityofUkrainiansinallregions
didnotseeRussiaasathreatandwanted
friendlyrelationswithMoscow(openborders,
novisasandnocustoms)
 However,theannexationoftheCrimea,united
centralUkraineandGalicia,andpartofsouthern
UkraineinstarkoppositiontoRussia
 Conflictisstillongoing,butwhatare
preliminaryconsequences?
Geopolitical/structural:weakeningoftheinternationallegalorder;militarizationof
theformerSovietspace,theBlackSeaandEurope historicallytendstoleadto
worldwars

Regional:decliningdemandandeconomicgrowthinEurope,Russia,Ukraineand
thestatesofEurasianUnion startingtopickup,butshouldthehostilitiesflareup
currenciesandtradewillslowdownagain

Bilateral:RussiaisfirmlyanointedinthemindsofUkrainianelitesandthe
populationastopenemy willbeverydifficulttoreverse

Domestic:Ukraine decliningstandardsoflivingforaverageUkrainians inflation

duetowarexpenditures,lackofFDI,haltingofeconomicproductioninthe
easternUkraineandeconomicmismanagement;continuingcivilianandmilitary
casualties;IDPs;andRussia decliningstandardsoflivingforaverageRussians
inflation;sanctionspushingRussiatofurtheritseconomicnationalism;growing
RussiannationalismandsupportforneoNazigroups;furtherstiflingofopposition
andliberalsinRussia;Crimeaisagrowinghumanitariananddemographicdisaster
 TheinabilityofRussiatofullyaccept
Westphalian notionofsovereigntyforUkraine
andotherpostSovietstatesasTHEfundamental
causeforpresentconflictwithUkraineand
Russiasproblematicrelationshipandother
statesoftheFSU