TUGAS

KIMIA LINGKUNGAN

Larasati Denaputri Sudewo - 1406603176

Fransiskus Randy - 1506733491

K I M I A L I N G K U N G A N K E L A S ( A ) R A B U S I A N G
 TUGAS II

Sea level rise due to global warming

Over the last 100 years, the global sea level has risen by about 10 to 25 cm.
Sea level change is difficult to measure. Relative sea level changes have been derived
mainly from tide-gauge data. In the conventional tide-gauge system, the sea level is
measured relative to a land-based tide-gauge benchmark. The major problem is that
the land experiences vertical movements (e.g. from isostatic effects, neotectonism,
and sedimentation), and these get incorporated into the measurements. However,
improved methods of filtering out the effects of long-term vertical land movements,
as well as a greater reliance on the longest tide-gauge records for estimating trends,
have provided
greater confidence
that the volume of
ocean water has
indeed been
increasing, causing
the sea level to rise
within the given
range.
It is likely that much of the rise in sea level has been related to the concurrent rise in
global temperature over the last 100 years. On this time scale, the warming and the
consequent thermal expansion of the oceans may account for about 2-7 cm of the
observed sea level rise, while the observed retreat of glaciers and ice caps may
account for about 2-5 cm. Other factors are more difficult to quantify. The rate of
observed sea level rise suggests that there has been a net positive contribution from
the huge ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica, but observations of the ice sheets do
not yet allow meaningful quantitative estimates of their separate contributions. The
ice sheets remain a major source of uncertainty in accounting for past changes in sea
level because of insufficient data about these ice sheets over the last 100 years.
Using the IS92 emission scenarios, projected global mean sea level increases relative
to 1990 were calculated up to 2100.
Taking into account the ranges in the estimate of climate sensitivity and ice melt
parameters, and the full set of IS92 emission scenarios, the models project an increase
in global mean sea level of between 13 and 94 cm.
During the fist half of the next century, the choice of emission scenario has relatively
little effect on the projected sea level rise due to the large thermal inertia of the ocean-
ice-atmosphere climate system, but has increasingly larger effects in the later part of
the next century. In addition, because of the thermal inertia of the oceans, sea level
would continue to rise for many centuries beyond 2100 even if concentrations of
greenhouse gases were stabilized at that time.

The greenhouse effect

The Earth has a natural temperature control system. Certain atmospheric gases are
critical to this system and are known as greenhouse gases. On average, about one
third of the solar radiation that hits the earth is reflected back to space. Of the
remainder, some is absorbed by the atmosphere but most is absorbed by the land and
oceans. The Earth's surface becomes warm and as a result emits infrared radiation.
The greenhouse gases trap the infrared radiation, thus warming the atmosphere.
Naturally occurring greenhouse gases include water vapour, carbon dioxide, ozone,
methane and nitrous oxide, and together create a natural greenhouse effect. However,
human activities are causing greenhouse gas levels in the atmosphere to increase.
Note: Greenhouse gases are mixed throughout in the atmosphere. For pedagogical
reasons they are depicted here as a layer.
 CO2 Trend for Mauna Loa

1) Recent Monthly Average Mauna Loa

CO2
August 2016: 402.25 ppm
August 2015: 398.93 ppm
Last updated: September 6, 2016

CO2 Concentration in the atmosphere: Mauna Loa curve

CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere have been measured at an altitude of about
4,000 meters on the peak of Mauna Loa mountain in Hawaii since 1958. The
measurements at this location, remote from local sources of pollution, have clearly
shown that atmospheric
concentrations of CO2 are
increasing. The mean
concentration of
approximately 316 parts per
million by volume (ppmv)
in 1958 rose to
approximately 369 ppmv in
1998. The annual variation
is due to CO2 uptake by growing plants. The uptake is highest in the northern
hemisphere springtime.

Global atmospheric concentration of CO2

Atmospheric CO2 has increased
from a pre-industrial concentration
of about 280 ppmv to about 367
ppmv at present (ppmv= parts per
million by volume). CO2
concentration data from before
1958 are from ice core
measurements taken in Antarctica
and from 1958 onwards are from
the Mauna Loa measurement site. The smooth curve is based on a hundred year
running mean. It is evident that the rapid increase in CO2 concentrations has been
occurring since the onset of industrialization. The increase has closely followed the
increase in CO2 emissions from fossil fuels.

CO2 emissions from industrial processes

This map depicts the unequal
distribution of industry in the world.
The significant part of carbon dioxide
emissions comes from energy
production, industrial processes and
transport. The industrialised countries
consequently must bear the main
responsibility of reducing emissions
of carbon dioxide.

CO2 emissions from land use change

Emissions of carbon dioxide
due to changes in land use
mainly come from the
cutting down of forests and
instead using the land for
agriculture or built-up areas,
urbanisation, roads etc.
When large areas of rain
forests are cut down, the
land often turns into less
productive grasslands with
considerably less capacity of storing CO2.
Emissions of CO2 - selected countries (1995)
Volume of GHG
calculated per nation
and per capita. The
rich countries of the
world historically
has emitted most of
the anthropogenic
greenhouse gases
since the start of the
industrial revolution
in the latter half of the 1700s. Per capita, the significant emissions still are produced
by the OECD countries.- A major issue of debate is the sharing of responsibility.
Non-industrialised countries strive to increase their population's standard of living,
thereby also increasing their emissions of greenhouse gases, since economic
development is closely associated with energy production. The volume of GHG thus
will probably increase despite the efforts to reduce emissions in industrialised
countries. China has the second biggest emissions of GHG in the world. However, per
capita the Chinese emissions are very low compared to the no. 1 on the list, the USA.
 SCIENTIFIC REVIEW THE DAY AFTER TOMORROW
PENDINGINAN GLOBAL

Film The Day After Tomorrow merupakan salah satu film

dengan genre fiksi ilmiah (science-fiction) yang menceritakan
tentang dampak dari pemanasan global yang berakhir pada masa
es baru New Ice Age. Secara garis besar, jika pemanasan
global mencapai suatu titik puncak maka keadaan akan
membalik ke pendinginan global. Di dalam film ini
dikisahkankan pembalikan keadaan tersebut begitu cepat, maka
dalam film setelah besok hari (the day after tomorrow) seluruh bumi telah tertutup
salju, munculnya fenomena-fenomena bencana alam dan udara bersuhu sangat dingin.
Faktanya, film ini banyak menimbulkan pro dan kontra di kalangan
klimatologis, dimana tinjauan utama terhadap film ini adalah banyaknya fenomena-
fenomena yang tidak sesuai dengan ilmu klimatologi itu sendiri. Menurut para ahli,
film The Day After Tomorrow ini tidak sepenuhnya sesuai dengan fakta yang ada.
Salah satunya adalah masa transisi pergantian iklim yang begitu cepat, karena
menurut klimatologis, fenomena-fenomena alam memang banyak terjadi 13.000
tahun terakhir, namun merupakan hal yang sangat mustahil apabila perubahan
signifikan dari cuaca berlangsung secara cepat dan hanya dalam beberapa hari saja.
Masa es baru yang terjadi pada film tersebut tidak sepenuhnya secara logika dapat
terjadi, berdasarkan beberapa fakta yaitu:
Walaupun ada arus air tawar yang melemahkan atau dapat memberhentikan
arus Atlantik Utara, adanya efek pendinginan pada arus pasti akan segera
ternetralisasi oleh suhu tinggi yang disebabkan pemanasan global.
Adanya angin hebat (tornado) yang terjadi dari arah lautan seharusnya akan
melemah ketika sampai di pesisir, dan juga badai hebat di dalam film
menyebabkan adanya penarikan udara sangat dingin dari troposfer dan dapat
membekukan manusia dalam hitungan detik, secara ilmu klimatologis hal
tersebut tidak dapat terjadi, karena perpindahan udara dingin dari lapisan
troposfer tidak mungkin terjadi dalam waktu yang sangat singkat dan langsung
menyebabkan efek pembekuan terhadap suhu tubuh manusia.
REFERENSI
http://news.nationalgeographic.com/news/2004/05/0527_040527_DayAfter_2.html
(diakses pada Selasa, 4 Oktober 2016 pukul 13.41 WIB)
https://climatesight.org/2012/04/26/the-day-after-tomorrow-a-scientific-critique/
(diakses pada Selasa,4 Oktober 2016 pukul 14.05 WIB)
http://ipcc.ch (diakses pada Selasa, 4 Oktober 2016 12.31 WIB)